PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

In last weeks ODT article, Chris Swann mentioned that they hoped CMS coverage would come through early in 2014. That's quite a change to last years June update where they said talks may continue through to August 2014.

He also reiterated the earlier estimate of US$100M revenue within five years, noting that that was a mid range estimate. Was also confident that the company would be processing several tens of thousands of tests in 2014. David Darling was quoted a couple of months ago that the US$100m revenue target may come earlier than five years.

Add to that the advetising of a new lab technician position in Hershey and I thinks things may well be rolling along even more quickly than even the most optomistic of shareholders would have believed.

I think 2014 might see a few suprises on the positive side.
And today we have had the first one- good call barney- keep it up:)

[Goldstein]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/how-biotech-finally-boomed-20140103-309jk.html

Good sign that Australian fund managers with their billions of dollars to be invested, post the resources boom, will be looking out for the likes of PEB to deliver exceptional returns.

I am getting a few more before they do! :)

Interesting Balance that the companies mentioned in that article are developing treatments as opposed to developing diagnostic protocols. That really is pie in the sky stuff and probably too risky for me. I really like the fact that PEB actually have product getting to market and other products in the pipeline.

[SirSlingy]

A few of those stocks mentioned in that article (ADO, NEU and AHZ) are fantastic businesses run by proven individuals, had stellar growth in 2013 and I hope with the right news flow will repeat that in 2014. Well worth the time to research them to form your own view.

[Balance]

A few of those stocks mentioned in that article (ADO, NEU and AHZ) are fantastic businesses run by proven individuals, had stellar growth in 2013 and I hope with the right news flow will repeat that in 2014. Well worth the time to research them to form your own view.

One thing we all learn through life is to stick with winners.

So far, so good with PEB.

[skid]

Say what you will skid... It is still a BUY !! IMHO .. :-)

You obviously think its a buy (and therefore not overvalued) and you may well be right. But telling someone who has done research and decided it is overvalued to shut up and buy,seems a bit odd to me.
Lets face it ,some do get a bit carried away on this thread and others have done hard cold research--the wave of success has carried them both along,but if push comes to shove,I cant help but think those that are big on the emotional attachment will suffer the most as they will find it hard to part with their ''baby''---just different ways of thinking about a good outfit at this point in time.
Dont misinterpet that I think PEB is a dog as its not the case.
Its more a comment on the psychology of investing in shares (it also pertains to the share market in general)

[Whipmoney]

You obviously think its a buy (and therefore not overvalued) and you may well be right. But telling someone who has done research and decided it is overvalued to shut up and buy,seems a bit odd to me.
Lets face it ,some do get a bit carried away on this thread and others have done hard cold research--the wave of success has carried them both along,but if push comes to shove,I cant help but think those that are big on the emotional attachment will suffer the most as they will find it hard to part with their ''baby''---just different ways of thinking about a good outfit at this point in time.
Dont misinterpet that I think PEB is a dog as its not the case.
Its more a comment on the psychology of investing in shares (it also pertains to the share market in general)

Lol when throngs of buyers are coming in with next to no research under their belt and are telling you to "shut-up and buy" then to me that's one of the key indicators that a stock is currently overvalued..

[MAC]

Perhaps someone with more exp in this area can assist ?

My interpretation of the NZX rules is such that we may anticipate PEB inclusion within the NZX50 on Wednesday 12th March 2014, is this correct ?

https://www.nzx.com/files/static/Equity_Indices_Methodology_June_2012.pdf

[TimmyTP]

Perhaps someone with more exp in this area can assist ?

My interpretation of the NZX rules is such that we may anticipate PEB inclusion within the NZX50 on Wednesday 12th March 2014, is this correct ?

https://www.nzx.com/files/static/Equity_Indices_Methodology_June_2012.pdf
Yep I agree with your date - no trading hols around then, so 7 trading days before Friday 21st March is 12th.

[Dentie]

Some nice spiking down to $1.41 today.... but nice to see it returning quickly to the upper level.

[In4a$]

[QUOTE=MAC;452825]Perhaps someone with more exp in this area can assist ?

My interpretation of the NZX rules is such that we may anticipate PEB inclusion within the NZX50 on Wednesday 12th March 2014, is this correct ?

If PEB is going in, anyone got an idea of what stock it replaces or might replace ?

[Minerbarejet]

Might be slotting in well up the list too especially as march comes around. Last I looked they were above Sanford. Hancocks post 5555 has the list.

[janner]

You obviously think its a buy (and therefore not overvalued) and you may well be right. But telling someone who has done research and decided it is overvalued to shut up and buy,seems a bit odd to me.
Lets face it ,some do get a bit carried away on this thread and others have done hard cold research--the wave of success has carried them both along,but if push comes to shove,I cant help but think those that are big on the emotional attachment will suffer the most as they will find it hard to part with their ''baby''---just different ways of thinking about a good outfit at this point in time.
Dont misinterpet that I think PEB is a dog as its not the case.
Its more a comment on the psychology of investing in shares (it also pertains to the share market in general)

Well said skid and very true..

The market is in a very dangerous state at present.. ( Also IMHO )..

Just think that this one has a product good enough to ride out the storm..

[geo]

Well said skid and very true..

The market is in a very dangerous state at present.. ( Also IMHO )..

Just think that this one has a product good enough to ride out the storm..

Janner. Can you please share with us WHY the market in a very dangerous at present????

[AndyLP]

Can anyone remember off hand what the details were with the agreement between PEB and Cellmid, that entitled them to royalty payments?
With PEB having revenues in 2014 of at least 5 million, there may be an opportunity with CDY at the moment as they've come down from their recent highs (highs driven by PEB announcements in the first place)

[AndyLP]

I calculated based on the higher % range of the agreement, that even with Pacific Edge at full smoke the royalties were only about 0.3 cent per share.

I'm not home so don't have my records in front of me.

I personally believe the Midkine gene profile may be rendered redundant in future test arrays.


Thanks once again Hancocks - you feel Midkine won't be relevant? Can you cast any more light on this? I try to keep up with the science where I can.

Cheers

[AndyLP]

That makes sense. Thanks

[Punter01]

I am interested in thoughts around why this stock might be overvalued. In my very simple terms if they can generate 200,000 tests pa at $200 net profit they look to be generating net profit of $40m pa and on a generous div yield of 5% this would value the company at around $800m. It also seems that Healthcare providers who know of cx bladder, but instead choose invasive surgery, which is less accurate and more expensive, could run into legal complications if patients are mis-diagnosed. This helps for a convincing sales pitch so modelling 200,000 tests is pretty fair from the +1m currently undertaken per year in the US I think. While not providing a profit or dividend and still needing pick up by practitioners, and also running execution risk during a fast growth phase I still can't see to much wrong with this one. Keen to hear otherwise though!

[Snow Leopard]

I am interested in thoughts around why this stock might be overvalued. In my very simple terms if they can generate 200,000 tests pa at $200 net profit they look to be generating net profit of $40m pa and on a generous div yield of 5% this would value the company at around $800m. It also seems that Healthcare providers who know of cx bladder, but instead choose invasive surgery, which is less accurate and more expensive, could run into legal complications if patients are mis-diagnosed. This helps for a convincing sales pitch so modelling 200,000 tests is pretty fair from the +1m currently undertaken per year in the US I think. While not providing a profit or dividend and still needing pick up by practitioners, and also running execution risk during a fast growth phase I still can't see to much wrong with this one. Keen to hear otherwise though!

There are a range of possible outcomes for PEB on any time frame.

The worst is that despite all they have achieved so far they fail to sell sufficient tests in the USA and go phut! (Achieving commercial success depends upon many factors of which one is the actual product).

The best is that they get to dominate the market and that CxBladder is just the first of several successful products.

And there are an infinite number of possibilities between.

So it may be way overvalued, or it may be way undervalued, but only time will tell where the right price was (and even then this lot will argue over it).

So like any 'investment' you determine your criteria for buying/holding and under what circumstances you would sell and you review them periodically as new news/sales figures/price changes happen.

But your assumptions are as good as/ as bad as anyone else's at this stage.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Join the stock picking contest.

[janner]

Janner. Can you please share with us WHY the market in a very dangerous at present????


So many of the well known Guru's .. Maudlin .. To.. Roubini ... et al.. Also with so many of the GOLD and PM Guru's repeating the same message.

All for their own ends ..

Makes for a very jittery and uncertain market..

Not saying that they are correct or in-correct..

Just that they are playing a dangerous game..

PEB with it's current and upcoming products will IMHO ride out what ever comes along..

[etrader]

Could PEB be interested in securing some back end IP with the likes of cellmid CDY who provide IP for midkine. This would not only protect their IP but also absorb royalty payments long term.

A 20 mill stock generating several million in turnover now.

[Whipmoney]

I am interested in thoughts around why this stock might be overvalued. In my very simple terms if they can generate 200,000 tests pa at $200 net profit they look to be generating net profit of $40m pa and on a generous div yield of 5% this would value the company at around $800m. It also seems that Healthcare providers who know of cx bladder, but instead choose invasive surgery, which is less accurate and more expensive, could run into legal complications if patients are mis-diagnosed. This helps for a convincing sales pitch so modelling 200,000 tests is pretty fair from the +1m currently undertaken per year in the US I think. While not providing a profit or dividend and still needing pick up by practitioners, and also running execution risk during a fast growth phase I still can't see to much wrong with this one. Keen to hear otherwise though!

Basically my argument is that the Price-to-Sales (i.e. Market Cap to Revenue) ratio is far too high at 25,000+. Obviously this is due to a low denominator (i.e. sales) which if all goes well should improve relatively rapidly and which will invariably improve the ratio.

That being said however I still think this ratio is far too high. I note that several posters have mentioned that this will be $2-$3 stock in coming years, some say $5 and somebody even mentioned $10, and therefore the logic of their argument is along the lines of "why quibble over a few cents when it will become a few dollars".

Sure on the face of things this makes sense. $0.90, $1.10, $1.20 or $1.45.. all of them are a good buy price considering the stock could be $3 in only a year or two. Seems like lots of upside and therefore lots of reward.

What they haven't considered is the risk in relation to the reward. The risks aren't non-existent. Bio-tech companies rise and fall all the time and if for some reason there's a hitch with the science (as in the case of Matritech's NMP22 test) then the company could collapse overnight. Aside from product risk there is market risk (inability to commercialise, or inability to get the insurers to price the test at an acceptable gross margin). There's competitor risk, technological obsolescence (i.e. a superior bio-marker/test being delivered to the market).

So with regard to PEB (my personal view) is that the market is pricing in far too much of the foward revenue (growth expectation) and therefore the reward isn't yet commensurate enough for the risks. I will look to buy-in if there is another dip however.

DISC: sold at around $1.50.

[benjitara]

Basically my argument is that the Price-to-Sales (i.e. Market Cap to Revenue) ratio is far too high at 25,000+. Obviously this is due to a low denominator (i.e. sales) which if all goes well should improve relatively rapidly and which will invariably improve the ratio.

That being said however I still think this ratio is far too high. I note that several posters have mentioned that this will be $2-$3 stock in coming years, some say $5 and somebody even mentioned $10, and therefore the logic of their argument is along the lines of "why quibble over a few cents when it will become a few dollars".

Sure on the face of things this makes sense. $0.90, $1.10, $1.20 or $1.45.. all of them are a good buy price considering the stock could be $3 in only a year or two. Seems like lots of upside and therefore lots of reward.

What they haven't considered is the risk in relation to the reward. The risks aren't non-existent. Bio-tech companies rise and fall all the time and if for some reason there's a hitch with the science (as in the case of Matritech's NMP22 test) then the company could collapse overnight. Aside from product risk there is market risk (inability to commercialise, or inability to get the insurers to price the test at an acceptable gross margin). There's competitor risk, technological obsolescence (i.e. a superior bio-marker/test being delivered to the market).

So with regard to PEB (my personal view) is that the market is pricing in far too much of the foward revenue (growth expectation) and therefore the reward isn't yet commensurate enough for the risks. I will look to buy-in if there is another dip however.

DISC: sold at around $1.50.

I think taking sales ratio into account at this stage is a little bit irrelevant seeing that the market for producing those sales has only been established recently. The positives for me at the moment would be that the product shows a clear competitive edge on competition and that the potential market is being secured. This, in my mind is more of a factor in the current price than actual sales potential.
Just an opinion but I haven't held this long for sales at this point.

[MAC]

I think taking sales ratio into account at this stage is a little bit irrelevant seeing that the market for producing those sales has only been established recently. The positives for me at the moment would be that the product shows a clear competitive edge on competition and that the potential market is being secured. This, in my mind is more of a factor in the current price than actual sales potential.
Just an opinion but I haven't held this long for sales at this point.

Well said Benjitara, it's the potential over the next 5 years that an investor values.

[winner69]

One risk you not mentioned Whip is that succeeding in this market in the states is how well you lobby the powers to be in Washington. The whole set up seems sort of 'corrupt' even though there probably is a nicer word than that to use.

How well positioned are PEB people on the ground in the US. Balance says this has been recognised so thats good

Just another reason why I feel PEB intellectual property will be 'merged' into a bigger organisation, probably sooner than later

Still a good reason to hold

[MAC]

Hi Punter welcome to the PEB thread. Any valuation of PEB is a guess only and will be said to be based on the fundamentals (financials) or the technicals; but either way it's still just a guess. I do not think PEB are over priced at the moment considering what could happen in the very near future. People can argue either way ad nauseum without any real basis for their argument.

So if you want to invest you need to make up your own mind and continue your research, get to know the PEB - Cxbladder website to fill in some gaps in your knowledge and ask on-line just like you have done.

Each to their own as an investment religion, belief, faith or science, or all of those things.

Either way I would not be surprised to see some of the brokers and analysts start to better cover PEB during 2014, particularly so after inclusion within the NZ50 and also once the rate of revenue growth can be assessed against the USD100M objective. They usually hold off until it's a no brainer.

This coverage in itself may provide confidence for those who don’t have the time to fully research or alternatively who may failed math at school.

[Whipmoney]

I think taking sales ratio into account at this stage is a little bit irrelevant seeing that the market for producing those sales has only been established recently. The positives for me at the moment would be that the product shows a clear competitive edge on competition and that the potential market is being secured. This, in my mind is more of a factor in the current price than actual sales potential.
Just an opinion but I haven't held this long for sales at this point.

Is it though? Even with sales of NZD $500k and NZD $1m the Price-to-sales ratio is 916x and 458x respectively, which is still very high considering the average for biotech is purportedly 6.0x (based on data from Stern NYU).

Based on the current market cap, at a 6.0x PSR the company would have to be pulling in sales of NZD $76.379m, which to me sounds like the market has already priced in a lot of the upside.

[MAC]

Within a sector there is a very large range of P/S ratios, sure higher ratios for growth companies and lower ratios for mature companies, but there are many other reasons for that range also.

As one example, do consider the gross margins generated from those sales, PEB have told us that they anticipate gross margins of 82%, and we may see this within the next one or two annual reports.

This is at the very upper end of the sector and at the upper end for most companies in general. It may reflect the very highly automated labs, competitive position, low staff levels and perhaps a little kiwi modesty in establishing the business culture.

I wouldn't recommend that anyone make investment decisions based primarily on just one of many metrics like P/S, it takes time and an assessment of the business model and potential.

Trust this assists you Whipmoney.

[baller18]

it only takes 1000 tests to reach 550K. They have mentioned they are expecting tens of thousands this year, so should definitely be more than a few thousand

[Balance]

If you take the logic of P/S ratio to value a stock like PEB at this point of this evolution into a business, then PEB would be worth nothing 2 years ago.

Yet anyone who bought the stock then at infinite P/S ratio made the right investment decision.

You are buying upside potential with PEB still at this stage.

[Jay]

I have to agree winner - all 3 three times :)

And this means it could be "merged" before true value is realised, though could be a bit of a catch 22, as you say w69, may need people of influence to realise full value

[MAC]

Absolutely Tumeric, and of course companies as going concerns are ultimately valued on their discounted cashflows not necessarily their sales, with projected 82% gross margins, PEB will always have a very high P/S relative to other companies within the sector.

[winner69]

I have to agree winner - all 3 three times :)

And this means it could be "merged" before true value is realised, though could be a bit of a catch 22, as you say w69, may need people of influence to realise full value

Sharetrader seems to get itself a bit tied up on mobile devices and repeats things ....r it may be just the operator eh .... but I sure I only touched the Submit button once

[Dentie]

Yup agreed, and the context of why the ratio is so high aside, there is a big danger when with working with ratios where the numerator relative to the denominator is tiny (or visa versa) as relatively small absolute changes in the denominator (in this case) can have massive effects.

That is highlighted by the numbers that have been thrown around this morning.

Whipmoney's initial and current Price-to-Sales ratio is at 25,000+ compared to:

916x if sales are $500k (a 96.3% decline in the ratio from it's current value)
458x if sales are $1m (a 98.3% decline in the ratio from it's current value)
91.6x if sales are $5m which as baller points out only requires roughly 10,000 tests which is an underestimate based on Darlings comments (a 99.6% decline in the ratio from it's current value).

If you flip those percentages in all likelihood the current Price-to-Sales ratio is arguably well over 27,200% greater than what we would expect it to be later this year.

My point is you can get these massive swings in the value of the ratio over time when either the numerator or denominator is coming off a very small base relative to it's counterpart (check out the recently reported % changes in NZ drowning's last year compared to this year, or the serious patient safety events reported by the Health Quality and Safety Commission for our NZ hospitals for some good examples).

Therefore I'm not sure the Price-to-Sales ratio is much good of a metric in determining whether the SP is over valued or not (worth considering though of course). As Balance points out it PEB is about upside potential right now. Valuation should be based more on that than the current Price-to-Sales ratio IMHO.

........ha ha MR T ...kicking myself now - if I was paying attention in those maths classes 40 odd years ago, I would more easily be able to follow the theme of this particular & related posts :confused::t_up:

[baller18]

Buyers moving up a cent as the day goes by, 160k-ish more buyers at 1.43, 2 days ago was 1.41, now 1.42 :)
Matter of time when 1.45 is surpassed

[Minerbarejet]

Yup agreed, and the context of why the ratio is so high aside, there is a big danger when with working with ratios where the numerator relative to the denominator is tiny (or visa versa) as relatively small absolute changes in the denominator (in this case) can have massive effects.

That is highlighted by the numbers that have been thrown around this morning.

Whipmoney's initial and current Price-to-Sales ratio is at 25,000+ compared to:

916x if sales are $500k (a 96.3% decline in the ratio from it's current value)
458x if sales are $1m (a 98.3% decline in the ratio from it's current value)
91.6x if sales are $5m which as baller points out only requires roughly 10,000 tests which is an underestimate based on Darlings comments (a 99.6% decline in the ratio from it's current value).

If you flip those percentages in all likelihood the current Price-to-Sales ratio is arguably well over 27,200% greater than what we would expect it to be later this year.

My point is you can get these massive swings in the value of the ratio over time when either the numerator or denominator is coming off a very small base relative to it's counterpart (check out the recently reported % changes in NZ drowning's last year compared to this year, or the serious patient safety events reported by the Health Quality and Safety Commission for our NZ hospitals for some good examples).

Therefore I'm not sure the Price-to-Sales ratio is much good of a metric in determining whether the SP is over valued or not (worth considering though of course). As Balance points out it PEB is about upside potential right now. Valuation should be based more on that than the current Price-to-Sales ratio IMHO.
And when the sales go from 3 to 12 the media will wax ecstatic about a 300% increase in sales. Think we can safely say there will be a massive correction at some stage to the ps ratio. Until that happens its doesnt seem a particularly useful piece of information.IMHO

[kyanar]

http://www.reportstack.com/product/148637/pacific-edge-limited-peb-product-pipeline-analysis-2013-update.html

It's not a stock report at all, just an analysis of PEB products and where they're at in the development cycle. Information you could probably get by asking PEB directly, probably not worth the $750 unless you're also a diagnostic company trying to compete.

[Dentie]

Looks like we are about to test the all time high for the 3rd time....blue sky above!

See what it's like at the end of the day.....

[baller18]

Buyers keep stepping up on the buy side. Allgud if it increases one or two cents everyday, no need for a big increase if it does that : d

[Harvey Specter]

Not likely today, highest intraday trade @ 1.75. reading higher lows and upward momentum on chart though. keep holding for another announce ;)Yes but that was pre dilution due with the rights issue.

[baller18]

Any TA experts out there wana let me know if we finish above or $1.5 we are out of the flag?

[Balance]

Any TA experts out there wana let me know if we finish above or $1.5 we are out of the flag?

Adjusted for rights issue, previous highs were $1.48 on 24 Oct 2013 and $1.149 on 28 Nov 2013.

It is a breakout if it holds $1.50 and above today.

[Dentie]

Any TA experts out there wana let me know if we finish above or $1.5 we are out of the flag?

Not an expert Baller but depends on how exact you want to get. The flag may have been broken a couple of days ago but some may argue it won't happen until $1.60/$1.61.

[Minerbarejet]

Not an expert Baller but depends on how exact you want to get. The flag may have been broken a couple of days ago but some may argue it won't happen until $1.60/$1.61.
Suspect the flag might have been shredded already after a sustained rally over two weeks on no news. Possibility its due to happy new year eagerness but still encouraging to watch this uplift.
Disc: Holding (on tight)

[False Profit]

....and if there's a dip this week due to "HNY eagerness" dissipating then I'll be there to pick up some more. Ditched my DIL before it started to fall back again and staying on the PEB, MBE (Aus) train...

[etrader]

PEB kicked their sales force into gear past June with a disclosed statement saying they were out creating relationships and meeting the right group of urologists first, the team has built to nearly 20 on USA turf now, from memory they said in their first year they were expecting 10000s of units - would it be fair to expect 5000 units at $500 a pop by 31 march turning over 2.5 mill ?

I would also believe given the past groups they secured in quick succession that another two large groups will be secured by 31 march also giving exposure to nearly 30 percent of the population.

Reasons I purchased and continue to hold:

Buying in at .45c nov 2011 just after it moved off its long term holding pattern of 20c with increased volume.
#debt free - 43 million spent establishing all the research to have an at market product - 29 mill cash in the bank - large contracts in place - back up secure and approved facility in Dunedin if required - lots spent protecting their IP - three years ahead of competitors to get first mover advantage - pipeline of work in near market research - the top researchers on their doorstep through otago uni using the license agreement they have.

These are just my views and hopefully many other shareholders but I'm still a holder till it gets to $5 by December 2016.

[skid]

I think it will continue its pattern of slight pullbacks after a bit of a surge but just my hunch--lets see if Dow cools a bit after the employment news--might cause a slight hesitation on the ole buy button

[Goldstein]

I think it will continue its pattern of slight pullbacks after a bit of a surge but just my hunch--lets see if Dow cools a bit after the employment news--might cause a slight hesitation on the ole buy button

I was thinking the character had changed over the last week or so - finishing daily near its intraday highs, steady volumes. I would have thought a growth stock in a country whose currency is going north compared with a lot if others would be a good place to be at the moment. I guess we'll see.

[MAC]

This one seems to be a clinical trial rather than a user programme, perhaps for CxBladder(Predict) ?

http://www.utswmedicine.org/conditions-specialties/cancer/clinical-trials/fact-detail.html?primarypurpose=30&studyId=STU%20112012-018

[Trader101]

Thanks for people sharing their views/opinions about PEB. I brought into the Company back in Sept 09 after doing my own research in to it. I have top up a few times over the years and personally believe it has a great future. However, I do knowledge the risks involved. I never get emotional about stocks but do enjoy investing/trading in shares. :cool:

[baller18]

A newbie question, there seems to be one large buyer at 75k lot who keeps matching the asking price, would this be an institution or just a rich investor?

[winner69]

PEB need to another announcement or two to keep up with the other high flyers on the market

If they not careful the punters will move in to more fun places

Maybe holidays over and they get the announcements going again

[False Profit]

PEB shooting up to 160... and past it...

[In4a$]

I topped up this morning, just felt that with whats going on in the market we might see a run close to $2 this week. heres hoping.

[Microsloth]

I see that PEB will be at Biotech Showcase in San Fran this week , could be some more interest awareness after this ?

Investor and partnering conference devoted to providing private and public biotechnology and life sciences companies with an opportunity to present to, and meet with, investors and pharmaceutical executives in one place during the course of one of the industry's largest annual healthcare investor conferences. Investors and biopharmaceutical executives from around the world gather in San Francisco during this critical week which is widely viewed as setting the tone for the coming year.

microsloth

[Minerbarejet]

If it does that then PEB might stand for please explain boys
Re post 5893

[winner69]

$1.65 and counting...

Sellersare fleeing madly. Move over Xero!

Just imagine if they made an announcement today ...even if it was a non event one like WYN this morning

C'mon they are innovative and creative ....just say something nice to stir the market up again

[Jay]

Someone know something the punters (us) don't??

[etrader]

My position would be that one would be mad to sell under $3 a share as that's the entry level a global would pay to gain control of the firm. Just my 5 cents.

Good to see the view this year is buy growth stocks.

[Snow Leopard]

...Looking for a big blue candle today for continuation tomorrow....
Try Trilogy (TIL) I hear there do nice scented ones. :D

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

This is a poem, please do as you're told,
Here is a bucket of water ice cold.
please take this bucket and dump it on me,
Do not hesitate, do it ASAP!

http://assets.amuniversal.com/183a96de250e102d94d7001438c0f03b

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Go PEB!

[Balance]

Price action suggests big buyers out there.

Am looking for a few big crossings soon.

[gv1]

Volume similar to wyn before big leap.

[Minerbarejet]

This is a poem, please do as you're told,
Here is a bucket of water ice cold.
please take this bucket and dump it on me,
Do not hesitate, do it ASAP!
Please do not tell me that you sold out, Moosie

[Goldstein]

Market Cap passed through $0.5b today.

Sold a third of my SUM on Friday and topped up PEB at $1.51 with the proceeds. Like both, but just too overweight in SUM.

Feeling OK about the decision at the moment.

[Minerbarejet]

Market Cap passed through $0.5b today.

Sold a third of my SUM on Friday and topped up PEB at $1.51 with the proceeds. Like both, but just too overweight in SUM.

Feeling OK about the decision at the moment.market cap has gone up 100 mil in 1 month- at this rate by march it should be higher than mainfreights cap and should be a shoe in for nzx50

[couta1]

Market Cap passed through $0.5b today.

Sold a third of my SUM on Friday and topped up PEB at $1.51 with the proceeds. Like both, but just too overweight in SUM.

Feeling OK about the decision at the moment.
Can you be overweight in Sum ? Good chance their share price could hit $4 after end of year financial results announced,I'm happy to be overweight but hold PEB too but just a tenth of the value of my Sum holding

[baller18]

Can you be overweight? Never fall in love with a stock, take some profits and diversify...

[benjitara]

Can you be overweight? Never fall in love with a stock, take some profits and diversify...

If I like a stock, one stock only, and back my judgement on the stock delivering a return on investment then is it in my best interest to diversify into other stocks through fear of my judgement being incorrect? I've always found it perplexing how people always say you must spread risk. I think my way of diversifying would be to diversify into other investments ie bonds while keeping a hard hit on stocks I like.

[baller18]

If I like a stock, one stock only, and back my judgement on the stock delivering a return on investment then is it in my best interest to diversify into other stocks through fear of my judgement being incorrect? I've always found it perplexing how people always say you must spread risk. I think my way of diversifying would be to diversify into other investments ie bonds while keeping a hard hit on stocks I like.

Really? So you would put 100% of all your capital in one stock? Even buffet wouldn't do that. Diversify, as in spreading your profits into the other stocks which you have researched and kept an eye on, or topping up on existing winning stocks you have in your portfolio ..

[couta1]

If I like a stock, one stock only, and back my judgement on the stock delivering a return on investment then is it in my best interest to diversify into other stocks through fear of my judgement being incorrect? I've always found it perplexing how people always say you must spread risk. I think my way of diversifying would be to diversify into other investments ie bonds while keeping a hard hit on stocks I like.
Well said, and when Sum has a 6 in front of it,it will give me 1.1mill so I'll be happy with that

[skid]

Impossible! You can never be overweight in Chorus...i mean SUM..---Words of wisdom B18

[baller18]

Not being an ass or anything couta, a few times you have splashed out how much money you have in this stock and etc, and etc, I don't think this is what the forum is about, it is not really constructive...

[clip]

Couta - Unless something unexpected happens such as earthquake takes out all chch developments or any other.number of scenarios

[geo]

My return since first buying into PEB is 338% and that must be low compared to the likes of Hancocks.

I,m still convinced that this company will become one of the best global investment companies that NZ has ever had, I don't include tech stocks. Mainfreight is a very good stock but does not have the potential of Peb.

I look at keeping a stock for at least 5 to 10 years if you stay in with a company of this quality you will be handsomely rewarded. Go you good thing.

[couta1]

Not being an ass or anything couta, a few times you have splashed out how much money you have in this stock and etc, and etc, I don't think this is what the forum is about, it is not really constructive...
I'm just trying to point out its worth sticking with something you believe in and where it can lead you,I've made enough mistakes moving into dogs and losing money,happy with PEB though

[benjitara]

Really? So you would put 100% of all your capital in one stock? Even buffet wouldn't do that. Diversify, as in spreading your profits into the other stocks which you have researched and kept an eye on, on top on existing stocks..

I know what diversifying means and I wasn't saying anything negative about your post. I've diversified my portfolio to spread risk myself but it does bring a few thoughts about risk and how people handle risk. If you believe with conviction in a stock why not simply have one stock? Some pro punters punt two or three horses in a race to turn small profits... I do believe though that far too much is made of diversifying to limit risk especially when people that are well informed on a stock/ industry/sector limit risk by spreading across stocks that they don't have specialist knowledge of.

[couta1]

Couta - Unless something unexpected happens such as earthquake takes out all chch developments or any other.number of scenarios
Just as well Sum are well diversified in their land bank then and a big enough earthquake in good old NZ will affect all stocks,cheers

[clip]

Just as well Sum are well diversified in their land bank then and a big enough earthquake in good old NZ will affect all stocks,cheers

Yes that is the most likely case however just pointing out its a case of if not when sum have a 6 in front. Look at DIL - $8 to 3 unexpectedly. **** can happen :)

[Toasty]

Not being an ass or anything couta, a few times you have splashed out how much money you have in this stock and etc, and etc, I don't think this is what the forum is about, it is not really constructive...

It might be just me but I actually like hearing about how much people are playing with in the sharemarket. Gives it a bit of context. But I'm the sort of person that looks at other peoples situations and wonders what sort of money they are making and if their car is financed, how much left on the mortgage etc. Endlessly fascinating.

[couta1]

I know what diversifying means and I wasn't saying anything negative about your post. I've diversified my portfolio to spread risk myself but it does bring a few thoughts about risk and how people handle risk. If you believe with conviction in a stock why not simply have one stock? Some pro punters punt two or three horses in a race to turn small profits... I do believe though that far too much is made of diversifying to limit risk especially when people that are well informed on a stock/ industry/sector limit risk by spreading across stocks that they don't have specialist knowledge of.
Great reply and for the naysayers I only have half my money in Sum

[jonu]

I know what diversifying means and I wasn't saying anything negative about your post. I've diversified my portfolio to spread risk myself but it does bring a few thoughts about risk and how people handle risk. If you believe with conviction in a stock why not simply have one stock? Some pro punters punt two or three horses in a race to turn small profits... I do believe though that far too much is made of diversifying to limit risk especially when people that are well informed on a stock/ industry/sector limit risk by spreading across stocks that they don't have specialist knowledge of.

I know where you are coming from Benji, I have done well a few times with the eggs in one basket, but it is a hell of a risk. I guess it comes back to the old maxim of whether you can afford to lose it.

[couta1]

It might be just me but I actually like hearing about how much people are playing with in the sharemarket. Gives it a bit of context. But I'm the sort of person that looks at other peoples situations and wonders what sort of money they are making and if their car is financed, how much left on the mortgage etc. Endlessly fascinating.
Lucky my wife pays the mortgage she's a good woman hence her threats if I sell any Sum as our original agreement was to have most of our money in Sum and Rym until I decided to play with a bit of fibre

[Whipmoney]

Really? So you would put 100% of all your capital in one stock? Even buffet wouldn't do that. Diversify, as in spreading your profits into the other stocks which you have researched and kept an eye on, or topping up on existing winning stocks you have in your portfolio ..

Diversifying... getting one of our three wrong by chance as opposed to one out of one right by skill.

Nah joking aside, Buffet is diversified for two reasons:

(i) The amount of money he has invested exceeds the market caps of most (if not all) companies.
(ii) He runs an investment fund and therefore it makes sense to spread the risk and therefore his bets.

Whilst much isn't known about his early days it wouldn't surprise me if Soros was limited to just a handful of assets. We certainty know he likes to make big bets on certain plays, hence why he's the most successful investor (in terms of return) in history.

[Goldstein]

I really like SUM and if I was going to be overweight in any stock that would be it. I'm not in love with it, but just find it hard to see anything bad about it.

However, there was an opportunity cost to having such a lot of capital tied up in one stock - especially at the moment. I have a certain 'float' on my mortgage for share fiddling. If I lose the lot I can still finance the mortgage and have a comfy living on my salary. The float is growing, but I won't go beyond it.

[baller18]

Diversifying... getting one of our three wrong by chance as opposed to one out of one right by skill.

Nah joking aside, Buffet is diversified for two reasons:

(i) The amount of money he has invested exceeds the market caps of most (if not all) companies.
(ii) He runs an investment fund and therefore it makes sense to spread the risk and therefore his bets.

Whilst much isn't known about his early days it wouldn't surprise me if Soros was limited to just a handful of assets. We certainty know he likes to make big bets on certain plays, hence why he's the most successful investor (in terms of return) in history.


Not buffet?

[couta1]

I really like SUM and if I was going to be overweight in any stock that would be it. I'm not in love with it, but just find it hard to see anything bad about it.

However, there was an opportunity cost to having such a lot of capital tied up in one stock - especially at the moment. I have a certain 'float' on my mortgage for share fiddling. If I lose the lot I can still finance the mortgage and have a comfy living on my salary. The float is growing, but I won't go beyond it.
Understand Goldstein,I borrowed 150k last year to buy shares,have to pay it back in 5 years,paying interest only at 5.99% so was happy with the move but unfortunately wiped out 100k of it in Chorus,as a said lucky I've got a good woman who pays the house mortgage,actually some brokers were advising people last year to borrow and buy Chorus due to cheap borrowing and high dividend yield,danger following some brokers advise

[Casino]

Understand Goldstein,I borrowed 150k last year to buy shares,have to pay it back in 5 years,paying interest only at 5.99% so was happy with the move but unfortunately wiped out 100k of it in Chorus,as a said lucky I've got a good woman who pays the house mortgage,actually some brokers were advising people last year to borrow and buy Chorus due to cheap borrowing and high dividend yield,danger following some brokers advise

The problem with arbitrages is that they are often not present.

[Harvey Specter]

The problem with arbitrages is that they are often not present.The market returned over 10% last year so if he was diversified ... ;)

[Casino]

The market returned over 10% last year so if he was diversified ... ;)

But that flies in the face of Mark Twain ;)

[Goldstein]

Understand Goldstein,I borrowed 150k last year to buy shares,have to pay it back in 5 years,paying interest only at 5.99% so was happy with the move but unfortunately wiped out 100k of it in Chorus,as a said lucky I've got a good woman who pays the house mortgage,actually some brokers were advising people last year to borrow and buy Chorus due to cheap borrowing and high dividend yield,danger following some brokers advise

Ha, mine's the same, but just on revolving credit. It was 120K a year ago, now 150K, but owe the tax man a bit. I think setting limits for yourself allows you to have peace of mind. I would dearly love to ramp up my trading/investing, but I don't want to be beholden to it. I know also I still have a bit to learn - you certaiinly do get better I think. You've probably learnt a few lessons there with Chorus. Good on you for putting it behind you and looking forward Couta1.

Anyway enough about that. Is PEB still raining money. Oh good.

[Whipmoney]

Not buffet?

Their respective track records suggest that Soros is by far the savier investor.

Over 41 years and net of fees Soros has turned $1,000 into $14 million and Buffet to $3 million from his actively managed closed end fund.

But if you want to know why Buffet is richer well that's simple: Compounding returns

Both were born in August 1930 and Buffet started his fund in 1957, whilst Soros didn't get started until 1969 so Buffet has had the advantage of being in the game longer and compounding his wealth to a greater extent.

[Balance]

Their respective track records suggest that Soros is by far the savier investor.

Over 41 years and net of fees Soros has turned $1,000 into $14 million and Buffet to $3 million from his actively managed closed end fund.

But if you want to know why Buffet is richer well that's simple: Compounding returns

Both were born in August 1930 and Buffet started his fund in 1957, whilst Soros didn't get started until 1969 so Buffet has had the advantage of being in the game longer and compounding his wealth to a greater extent.

$1,000 with Buffet since 1966 = $30m today.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/personalfinance/personal_investing_buffett/timeline/amazing_record.htm

[geo]

Understand Goldstein,I borrowed 150k last year to buy shares,have to pay it back in 5 years,paying interest only at 5.99% so was happy with the move but unfortunately wiped out 100k of it in Chorus,as a said lucky I've got a good woman who pays the house mortgage,actually some brokers were advising people last year to borrow and buy Chorus due to cheap borrowing and high dividend yield,danger following some brokers advise

To think people actually pay brokers for that kind of garbage advice.

[Whipmoney]

$1,000 with Buffet since 1966 = $30m today.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/personalfinance/personal_investing_buffett/timeline/amazing_record.htm

That's starting from 1956 so 57 odd years of compounding versus the 41 or so in Soro's career. You can find a like for like comparison in the diagram below:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tzn0BqMHySQ/TO4KmgrRgMI/AAAAAAAAAG8/B_EewWT6aKM/s1600/georgewarrensp.png

By all accounts Warren had a very good decade in the 1960's however Soros prevailed in the 70s which was a much tougher market.

[stoploss]

That's starting from 1956 so 57 odd years of compounding versus the 41 or so in Soro's career. You can find a like for like comparison in the diagram below:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_tzn0BqMHySQ/TO4KmgrRgMI/AAAAAAAAAG8/B_EewWT6aKM/s1600/georgewarrensp.png

By all accounts Warren had a very good decade in the 1960's however Soros prevailed in the 70s which was a much tougher market.

If I remember rightly from a book I read , big difference is , Soros operates out of a tax haven ? So that adds to his performance ....

[winner69]

I hope PEB make an announcement bloody soon ..... make up anything as long it has zillions mentioned in it

They are losing out in the hype war at the moment .... punters will desert the ship and go where there is more fun

Cmon guys - say something

[clip]

Harbour asset mgmt selling down. not sure how much of a sell this is seeing as I think between last and this SSH, the number of shares has increased with rights issue. I guess the percentages are still valid

For this disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 20,183,646
(b) total in class: 318,248,421
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.34%
For last disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 20,637,147
(b) total in class: 280,189,784
(c) total percentage held in class: 7.37%

[tosspot]

1.75 not out of the question today. Theres just no one wanting to part with these.

[baller18]

1.75 not out of the question today. Theres just no one wanting to part with these.
Apart from harbor? lol
Hope they stop selling, they indicated last time PEB made up a huge chunk of their portfolio!

[goldfish]

Maybe they have guidelines in place to sell so they not overweighted?
I dont see why else they would, definite uptrend and future announcements pending any day now.
Holding these puppies tightly.

[JimHickey]

only 500k shares gone, not even half a days trading on yesterdays volume. calm down!Wrong. The first announcement is pre rights. Assuming they took up the rights you are looking at a sell down of just over 2m shares.

[baller18]

Well gold fish could be right, a short spike to 1.70 and then sellers will come out again..

[goldfish]

Wish i had 2 million peb shares to sell down...
One day...

[goldfish]

Well gold fish could be right, a short spike to 1.70 and then sellers will come out again..

Theres always a first ;)

[MAC]

20 largest shareholders, page 64 of the FY13 annual report;

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-Report-2013.pdf

[jonu]

1.75 not out of the question today. Theres just no one wanting to part with these.

To be honest I didn't think much of that post Tosspot, but it's 1.73 and counting.

[Intel]

Can someone help me as to where to find this kind of information? I guess the two key things would be the number of shareholders, but maybe more importantly the % of shares on issue held by the 10,20,50 largest investors?

Cheers

Back of annnual reports normally have that information. Although holdings will have changed since then..

[clip]

To be honest I didn't think much of that post Tosspot, but it's 1.73 and counting.

ticked 1.75 briefly before back down to 1.70. I would be very happy if we base some new support at these levels :D
/edit back up to 1.75. Sky's the limit!

[goldfish]

Back up to 175 and sellers dropping depth changing.

[tosspot]

ticked 1.75 briefly before back down to 1.70. I would be very happy if we base some new support at these levels :D
/edit back up to 1.75. Sky's the limit!
aha great stuff and before lunch. $2 by next week or am I just being cheeky now

[luigi]

Top 10 shareholders for PEB hold ~ 25% of the company whereas for Xero the number is closer to 50%.

They periodically disclose their extensive shareholding list here (http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/1119032/documents). For more up to date information you'd have to check with the registry (not sure if they would disclose though).

[MAC]

Thanks Mac&Intel! Is there not a centralized data base or something though that allows us to get a more up to date picture?

Cheers

I'd be interested to know of one also, there is the morningstar site, but I find it frequently incomplete ?

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=peb&region=NZL&culture=en-us

[jonu]

aha great stuff and before lunch. $2 by next week or am I just being cheeky now

I thought you were being cheeky at 1.75!:p

[Toasty]

Thanks Mac&Intel! Is there not a centralized data base or something though that allows us to get a more up to date picture?

Cheers

Are you planning to make a lowball offer Turmeric?

[Harvey Specter]

Top 10 shareholders for PEB hold ~ 25% of the company whereas for Xero the number is closer to 50%.

They periodically disclose their extensive shareholding list here (http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/1119032/documents). For more up to date information you'd have to check with the registry (not sure if they would disclose though).They have to disclose. That is where all those low ball offers get their information from. In OZ, they dont have to.

[Toasty]

Haha, no not me :) Does it feel a bit similar to XRO to you Toasty? You've been in both for a while right?

I've only been in PEB since 63 cents about August last year I think. It feels a bit faster than Xero to me. Perhaps because I wasn't really around for all the hard yards at inception. I have been in Xero since the start so I am still traumatised by the years of less than a dollar a share.

I am really happy with PEB but would be happier perhaps if they had more products. It definitely feels like a 1 shot deal at the moment. It is going to win or not I think.

[blobbles]

Indeed a pretty good run for no announcement. If a positive announcement does come out, we might be looking at the $3's going off how everyone is so bullish. Right now its pretty amazing for a company that has almost zero sales... but the "10's of thousands" comment keeps echoing in my head, so no reason to not be bullish!

[Intel]

I'd be interested to know of one also, there is the morningstar site, but I find it frequently incomplete ?

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=peb&region=NZL&culture=en-us

If your willing to pay $ for an IRESS subscription then you can get movements over custom time periods. You can only get information from about a week ago though, so transactions until the 7th..

IRESS is pretty accurate and detailed, worth investing in a data source such as IRESS or BBerg (more expensive but well worth what you pay for it) if youve got a bit of capital and you are a true trader...

[steve06]

I've only been in PEB since 63 cents about August last year I think. It feels a bit faster than Xero to me. Perhaps because I wasn't really around for all the hard yards at inception. I have been in Xero since the start so I am still traumatised by the years of less than a dollar a share.

I am really happy with PEB but would be happier perhaps if they had more products. It definitely feels like a 1 shot deal at the moment. It is going to win or not I think.



CxBladder Detect, Triage and Predict are separate products in themselves. A good analogy would be e.g the use of x-rays to detect a lung tumour. The x-ray would indicate an abnormality, location of the tumour, however there's no way to tell how aggressive the tumour is or in what layers of tissue the tumour is derived from (important for different methods of treatment, etc), thats where Predict and Triage would come in.

I think they are doing the same thing for CxColorectal. So more products to come :)

[MAC]

If your willing to pay $ for an IRESS subscription then you can get movements over custom time periods. You can only get information from about a week ago though, so transactions until the 7th..

IRESS is pretty accurate and detailed, worth investing in a data source such as IRESS or BBerg (more expensive but well worth what you pay for it) if youve got a bit of capital and you are a true trader...

many thanks Intel for that good advice and something to consider, although I'm not sure I'll ever be a serious trader, I like it best when my average holding time is up to a year or so.

[Intel]

many thanks Intel for that good advice and something to consider, although I'm not sure I'll ever be a serious trader, I like it best when my average holding time is up to a year or so.

even as a serious investor, BBerg is phenomenal in the amount of data it has, information on every listed company in the world etc etc. Truly is amazing. Will set you back circa US $20k a year but is a cost which will pay itself off for sure, you can also use Tradebook (bbergs DMA) and pay 0.1% on trades and Im pretty sure they have soft commision that gets credited to the cost of your terminal from trades, so you can knock the cost down by a half.

[Intel]

So with recent SP movements, today will be interesting! At 1pm NZT PEB will start presenting at the biotech conference in San Fran. There is also the JPM Global healthare convention in San Fran this week, so the biggest of the biggest (execs, Fund managers, investors etc) will all be around to "potentially" hear PEB speak.. lets hope they are and we see a fury of bids as DD talks up a storm!

[MAC]

So with recent SP movements, today will be interesting! At 1pm NZT PEB will start presenting at the biotech conference in San Fran. There is also the JPM Global healthare convention in San Fran this week, so the biggest of the biggest (execs, Fund managers, investors etc) will all be around to "potentially" hear PEB speak.. lets hope they are and we see a fury of bids as DD talks up a storm!

As a remote possibility it would be great if anyone with access could post those presentations when available!. PEB may already be on the investment sector radar in the US.

http://www.evaluategroup.com/Universal/View.aspx?type=Story&id=482178&sectionID=&isEPVantage=yes

[Intel]

As a remote possibility it would be great if anyone with access could post those presentations when available!. PEB may already be on the investment sector radar in the US.

http://www.evaluategroup.com/Universal/View.aspx?type=Story&id=482178&sectionID=&isEPVantage=yes

There are a few contacts on the webpage for the conference, they'll probably be able to provide you with that sort of stuff. I imagine PEB will probably disclose it to the NZX at some stage soon (if its new material).

[gv1]

saw big volumes.

[NZSilver]

This thing is just chugging away moving steadily higher.

[Balance]

This thing is just chugging away moving steadily higher.

The buying suggests institutions coming in but finding stock hard to get.

So push price up to get stock.

[gv1]

The buying suggests institutions coming in but finding stock hard to get.

So push price up to get stock.
Yes, quite large numbers.

[Xerof]

I bought quite a few more yesterday on the retrace to 165/166. There is still that pesky afternoon seller providing (some) supply, but very good demand too (as Balance alludes to)

This has great momentum for now. Hell's teeth, what will wee drips of good news do to it!!

[Balance]

This run seems almost to good to be true (although I'm not complaining). S/P increase day after day on the lack of any news.

With this and well in possitive territory thus far, I've set up my trailing stop just in case!

The news is that the company is presenting in the US - bound to tattract attention and just needs a few funds to buy a few million dollars each, and woosh !

[Xerof]

Sorry to bring XRO into this, but XRO's roadshows and Xerocons both in NZ and around the world (OZ UK and in particular the US) have always done wonders for the SP. I suspect a similar thing is happening (and will contiunue to happen) for PEB!!

I prefer to call them a series of wee meetings......but you are right, get out there and wiggle that booty

[etrader]

PEB is only 17 percent off hitting $2 a few fundies snapping up some % of the stock will push in north of $2 during February.

Exposure in the states will help.

[warthog]

Mr Darling taking some cash off the table:

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/188108.pdf

[Goldstein]

Mr Darling taking some cash off the table:

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/188108.pdf

He probably just fancied a new Beamer

[Bobcat.]

Mr Darling taking some cash off the table:

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/188108.pdf

If Darling is selling (at $1.45) why would any of us want to buy more at its historic high of $1.74?

Discl: just today I've sold out (planning to come back in on a dip)

[Harvey Specter]

If Darling is selling (at $1.45) why would any of us want to buy more at its historic high of $1.74?H is still holding over $5m worth. Must be hard being that rich and having to survive on a salary of $270-300k ;)

[Dentie]

If Darling is selling (at $1.45) why would any of us want to buy more at its historic high of $1.74?

Discl: just today I've sold out (planning to come back in on a dip)

Maybe everybody aren't traders and maybe because there are lots of historic more highs to come?

[tunsbro]

If Darling is selling (at $1.45) why would any of us want to buy more at its historic high of $1.74?

It's only 2.5% of his family's trust holdings. Not exactly hemorrhaging shares. He's probably kicking himself for not waiting 5 more days. Could have got himself a better beemer.

[warthog]

For many reasons. Just like why people purchased at $8 when Rod Drury, Sam Morgan and Craig Winkler sold XRO shares at $6. Today XRO has just hit $42!

I'm never stoked, for good reasons, when people close to the company sell down. However it doesn't necessarily mean bad things are to come. How much profit has Darling taken over the years on his shares? I don't know the answer to that but it might put todays sell in a bit of context remembering he has been at this for quite some time now and shareholders have gotten significant gains.

Well said Tumeric.

Speculating about sell-down reasons is just that: speculation.

[kyanar]

If Darling is selling (at $1.45) why would any of us want to buy more at its historic high of $1.74?

Discl: just today I've sold out (planning to come back in on a dip)

He sold out on the 9th. According to the charts, $1.45 was about right for that day. Nothing to see here (right?)

[geo]

H is still holding over $5m worth. Must be hard being that rich and having to survive on a salary of $270-300k ;)

Darling is not rich until he sells all his shares. Good luck to him were would the sp be without him and his team.

[etrader]

Looking at the 2:15 rights issue darling would have been entitled to purchase about 400k options good on him for selling a few down it leaves something on the table for others who were smart to buy.

[blobbles]

I think you should only worry if he is selling more than 20% in one go. Likely he would be looking at the recent price rise (like all of us probably!) and thinking to take some profits and sink them into a yacht/car/kids education or something similar! And why not, he deserves it, I say!

[NZSilver]

No worries if he's selling we all need cash now and then. As an aside it also proves how hard it can be to time the market even if you are the CEO of a company - one advantage retail investors have is an ability to hold long term and ignore fluctuations in the share price. There are many long term holders who would be doing very well - congrats.

[Xerof]

for perspective: he did the same when the price was in the 20 to 40 cent region.

The market doesn't seem to care, so why should I?

[Bobcat.]

OK, but if I was in Darling's position and expected a positive announcement to soon hit the market, would I sell now? Unlikely.

I'm planning to come back in after the DJIA/NASDAQ/S&P500 correction anticipated for later this quarter, which will IMO hit biotechs as much if not harder than bluechip stocks.

[whatsup]

If Darling is selling (at $1.45) why would any of us want to buy more at its historic high of $1.74?

Discl: just today I've sold out (planning to come back in on a dip)

Bob, Better be quick and get back in or you could miss the bus !!

[Minerbarejet]

OK, but if I was in Darling's position and expected a positive announcement to soon hit the market, would I sell now? Unlikely.

I'm planning to come back in after the DJIA/NASDAQ/S&P500 correction anticipated for later this quarter, which will IMO hit biotechs as much if not harder than bluechip stocks.
What better way to show you ostensibly know nothing about anything positive than to sell a few. Keeps a lid on the pressure cooker. Also makes sense to get all the negatives out of the way first prior to something positive in March/ April if that happens. If it goes he will make his 80000 in share value back in no time. Sorry to hear you have pulled out- good luck with the reentry.

[JimHickey]

It just closed at all time highs but nevermind that, David Darling sold 80,000 shares!

[Minerbarejet]

It just closed at all time highs but nevermind that, David Darling sold 80,000 shares!
By my calculations DD would have recovered the value of his shareholding at 1.45 by the time they reached 1.49
We are a long way ahead of that.

[baller18]

hmm... weird...

[ddrone]

hmm... weird...

480k above $1.85 for sale vs 229k all the way down to $1.30. Looks pretty predictable to me.

[tosspot]

hmm... weird...
more of a top up opportunity, just someone taking profits (an anomoly). wont go below 1.60 should form a base there and continue upwards with the trend

[clip]

yep back up to 1.65 with more buyers adding

[Minerbarejet]

Boing! Its like being on a trampoline with this share.
Hope bobcat got back in at 1.60.
Anyone hear how the presentation went?:)

[jghomer]

480k above $1.85 for sale vs 229k all the way down to $1.30. Looks pretty predictable to me.
I dont believe the depth volume can predict movement as simply as that.
If I added a million for sale at $10, by that theory the price would move down because the sells outweigh the buys by so many.. but it would have no effect because my offer is so far off the match price it is irrelevant.
this is what you have seen above. If you look at the offers around the match price (within 15c at the time of your posting) buy/sell are pretty evenly weighted.
I made a google doc graph to easily visualise it when I was a little bored one day ;)

[croesus]

I sold out yesterday.... no brainer looking at the 3 month chart...the s/p growth over the last few weeks.. with no news of new signings was getting a bit heated imho.

Will now lurk for a cheaper entry point.

[couta1]

I sold out yesterday.... no brainer looking at the 3 month chart...the s/p growth over the last few weeks.. with no news of new signings was getting a bit heated imho.

Will now lurk for a cheaper entry point.
You'll be hoping no big news announcements come through in the meantime that's what scares me away from selling:mellow:

[Casino]

The possibility of a takeover offer was suggested by managment and a good reason to hold.

[croesus]

Yes I agree couta1.... it is a risk, but im prepared to take it for the chance of increasing my holding by 15 or 20% for no cost.. it was 125 c a few weeks ago.. no news, of signings... I cant see why it couldn't drop back another 20 c . to the mid 140 s
Not down ramping.. its a Sharetrader forum and that's what I am doing.

good luck to all

[Whipmoney]

Yes I agree couta1.... it is a risk, but im prepared to take it for the chance of increasing my holding by 15 or 20% for no cost.. it was 125 c a few weeks ago.. no news, of signings... I cant see why it couldn't drop back another 20 c . to the mid 140 s
Not down ramping.. its a Sharetrader forum and that's what I am doing.

good luck to all

I've stated it several times that I hold a similar view.

To me this is currently well over-valued (i.e. too much forward earnings priced in) compared to other biotech companies I have reviewed. Sure it may go up on another announcement (which doesn't automatically add tangible sales I might add..) but i'll take that risk.

I hope for the holders sake that it does go up, I really do, but I'm (mostly) a value investor so I will buy this when I think its value proposition is better.

[Bobcat.]

Boing! Its like being on a trampoline with this share.
Hope bobcat got back in at 1.60.:)

I'm not getting a buy signal yet. Instead I'm seeing a head and shoulder pattern and likely bigger drop from 1.70.

I'm holding off for at least a week.

[goldfish]

Better hope theres no announcements...market going crazzzy for them at mo.

[baller18]

Just like when it hovered around 60 cents then dropped to 50 then an announcement comes, hello one buck

[Whipmoney]

Just like when it hovered around 60 cents then dropped to 50 then an announcement comes, hello one buck

Well that's because the announcement(s) indicated that the US insurance companies had definitive interest in the product and that the commercialisation process was well underway.

You have to worry when additional announcements keep ratcheting up the price by 20%+ as the value is getting way to out of whack with the actual revenue numbers.

Does anyone actually think that the CMS (medicare/medicaid) announcement for instance should really add another 20%+ to the market cap?

As it stand the company is already ridiciously overvalued, with the current market cap already being over 50% of that of comparable US biotech companies whom I note already have $200m+ sales on the board.

[Schrodinger]

Sales or do you mean sails?

What are these things???

[baller18]

55million with access? 20%? We'll have to wait n see huh?
Anyone? Prob most

[clip]

if medicare/medicaid gets announced i think we'll see more like 35% than 20%..

[tosspot]

IM out aswell. Barring any announcements 1.75 seemed to be the tip and I can only see this drifting back to 1.50 or so from here.

[Wolf]

I'm staying in, the bio tech conference in San Fran yesterday as well as the up coming JPM Global healthare convention may not only possibly get some more american and International interest into this stock, but will give Cx Bladder more exposure which might help a couple sign ups come sooner. So i disagree that it isn't likely we won't get any announcements shortly.

I'm thinking the SP will hang between $1.60-$1.70 and if it goes lower ill buy more!

On another note even if the price drops from $1.68 to $1.50 a 12% decrease, any announcement should be good for at least 10% and a medicaid announcement 20% or more coming out of the price halt, i'm not going to risk missing out.

[Leftfield]

There seems to be a lot of people trading this stock on ST huh? I'm a little surprised given the long term gains this stock has pumped already that people are scared off by these intraday SP fluctuations. The real money here has and will be long term folks. Well that's just my humble opinion anyway

Totally agree - Disc holding since 50c and still smiling.
( I prefer to be a longer term holder to keep the IRD happy re cap gains v trading)

[winner69]

There seems to be a lot of people trading this stock on ST huh? I'm a little surprised given the long term gains this stock has pumped already that people are scared off by these intraday SP fluctuations. The real money here has and will be long term folks. Well that's just my humble opinion anyway :)

Happens a lot this time of the year

Methinks it is just bored students playing around with a little bit of cash they have. BLT seemed to be the last holidays favourite but they seem to have moved on to more fun things

Good on them anyway ... as long as they are learning something .... and hope they have enough cash for whatever they buy to have a good time after the market closes

[MAC]

PEB have been clear, it will take up to a year to bring the likes of intermountain, Kaiser Permanente, veterans association on board, they won’t be the last and there will be others also, Medicaid/Medicare sooner probably.

It’s just the beginning of nice steady upward growth as all those HMO’s and PPO’s come on board incrementally over the 5 year plan and probably well beyond.

I don’t think PEB will ever be a traders stock, there’s simply way too much long term steady growth and gains to be had, they’re much better off on the GEO thread chasing squiggly lines up and down, paying tax and brokerage, seeya.

[Harvey Specter]

I'm in long-term as well. Looking forward to it joining the NZX in March (in less than eight weeks). The institutions will be climbing over themselves to get in and get set. I can see a $2 in front of the share price. :)Agree - after they missed out on XRO, they wont want to miss out on another share that looks to outpace the rest of the index.

[In4a$]

I'm in long-term as well. Looking forward to it joining the NZX in March (in less than eight weeks). The institutions will be climbing over themselves to get in and get set. I can see a $2 in front of the share price. :)
I agree, I am holding and hoping price will go over $2 when gets NZX50 listing

[mrjeems]

I do a bit of both - long term and trading. Been trading PEB since it was $1.24, and have done well enough, but would have done slightly better just buying and holding.
I also only trade stock that I would like to hold long term anyway. So am hopefully never caught trying to drop a hot potato.

I guess trading = fun and quick cash, investing = savings and security

[Bobcat.]

There seems to be a lot of people trading this stock on ST huh? I'm a little surprised given the long term gains this stock has pumped already that people are scared off by these intraday SP fluctuations. The real money here has and will be long term folks. Well that's just my humble opinion anyway :)

Selling out at 149 to buy in again at 126 and then out again at 172 to come in again later is not acting like some 'bored student' being 'scared off by fluctuations' - it's investing on fundamentals but trading on technicals. It's like surfing...not for everybody but try it -- you might like it -- it's seldom a waste of time or money. Perhaps with not all of your holding but with some of it. Ignore TA and it's at your loss.

BC

[croesus]

PEB have been clear, it will take up to a year to bring the likes of intermountain, Kaiser Permanente, veterans association on board, they won’t be the last and there will be others also, Medicaid/Medicare sooner probably.

It’s just the beginning of nice steady upward growth as all those HMO’s and PPO’s come on board incrementally over the 5 year plan and probably well beyond.

I don’t think PEB will ever be a traders stock, there’s simply way too much long term steady growth and gains to be had, they’re much better off on the GEO thread chasing squiggly lines up and down, paying tax and brokerage, seeya.

MAC.. no offense.. but you are talking rubbish... I have had trades in PEB every day for a week or so.... Trade the trade. but Ive banked 200 to 600 every day.

Sold my core holding... but even today picked up some trading stock on Market close

From a traders perspective.. the last few weeks in PEB have been gold.

A friend of mine who sold a 140,000 PEB in the first 30 minutes today... has cleared 53 k in a Cpl of weeks... so don't tell me rubbish.

Cheers

[Leftfield]

Interesting debate on long term investing v short term trading.


I don’t think PEB will ever be a traders stock, there’s simply way too much long term steady growth and gains to be had, they’re much better off on the GEO thread chasing squiggly lines up and down, paying tax and brokerage, seeya.

I prefer Mac's approach yet am intrigued by Croesus (and others.)


I have had trades in PEB every day for a week or so.... Trade the trade. but Ive banked 200 to 600 every day.

I suspect there is no 'right' or 'wrong' it simply comes down to each individuals preferences for sleeping well knowing that the IRD won't be knocking on the door.

[Minerbarejet]

im certainly considering hitting the long term button on PEB...

Thats a great idea Moosie.
Look on it as a term deposit of unknown duration with an equally unknown interest rate with advantage of early withdrawal without penalty.
The only disadvantage is that the original deposit could reduce like SCF, Strategic, but you would have plenty of time to bail out.
A sort of bonus interest would be paid with the declaration of any dividend.:)

[Minerbarejet]

I mist be getting old (er) :p
Budweiser
:)Cheers

[Goldstein]

Budweiser
:)Cheers

You're the guy at the end then Miner?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/drinks/9617028/Video-Hipsters-ordering-beer

[Minerbarejet]

You're the guy at the end then Miner?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/drinks/9617028/Video-Hipsters-ordering-beerNah- thats the guy who sold all his PEB shares the day before they doubled.:)

[croesus]

Buying back some of what I sold in the last few days.... S/P much more resilient then I thought... whilst not a huge profit.. will pay my wine bill for a month or so, Hic *

[NZSilver]

SP seems to be on its way down....

[Goldstein]

The SP is going to drift around until there is an announcement. The only news since 19th Dec apart from SSHs has been the CEO selling 80000 shares. The big buyers have dried up at these prices pending more information.

Now you have to ask yourself if PEB is making good on its promises.

I'll also add that the big buyers are holding. If they weren't the PEB SP would be hammered.

[Harvey Specter]

Looks like we're all trying to time this one perfectly!!!The timing of the index announcement and its entry can be predicted. The announcement of further contracts cant be. You could just wait till the trading halt, miss the gap up but then enjoy the rest of the ride, just keep that smart phone handy.

[Longhaul]

Looks like we're all trying to time this one perfectly!!!

I bought at 67 cents and am gonna hold til there's somewhere better to put my money. I think I'll be holding for a while!

[mrjeems]

To me it looks like chart support/resistance is around 1.60 and 1.75. So could range between those if there isnt any news?

[Minerbarejet]

Looks like we're all trying to time this one perfectly!!!
What is this " we ", Kemosabe?

[Bobcat.]

I see better value in CDY.ASX (currently trading at 2.9c).

Remember that on 1 Aug 2013 (when PEB shares were only 55c!), PEB issued 1,084,622 shares to Cellmid pursuant to the midkine diagnostic license agreement signed on 17 May 2010.

Check out the graph for Cellmid - technically it looks good for a bounce. PEB's does not....and even if a PEB announcement does surprise us, CDY will rise as well, and will not disappoint.

BC

Discl: now holding CDY.

[blocker3]

I see better value in CDY.ASX (currently trading at 2.9c).

Remember that on 1 Aug 2013 (when PEB shares were only 55c!), PEB issued 1,084,622 shares to Cellmid pursuant to the midkine diagnostic license agreement signed on 17 May 2010.

Check out the graph for Cellmid - technically it looks good for a bounce. PEB's does not....and even if a PEB announcement does surprise us, CDY will rise as well, and will not disappoint.

BC

Discl: now holding CDY.

Bobcat, I have just gone and had a look at CDY on the ASX and it has gone nowhere at all in growth on average for the last 12 months.

Can you help me here please, with more information as why you see that this CDY stock is in for a bounce ? I am always keen to learn why.

Cheers

[Dentie]

Here's some light hearted entertainment for a Sunday ...

Just doing a bit of historic reading and came across this ....

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=12518&st=10

I wonder whether "Plastic" has got it together yet?

Enjoy!

[kyanar]

Here's some light hearted entertainment for a Sunday ...

Just doing a bit of historic reading and came across this ....

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=12518&st=10

I wonder whether "Plastic" has got it together yet?

Enjoy!

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=12518&st=0&p=824345&#entry824345

Nope.

(Fun fact: on Sharescene, the first post is the latest one).

[MAC]

Seems PEB are exhibiting at the AUA conference in May also, nice, a mere 11,000 American Urological Association members in attendance.

http://www.aua2014.org/exhibitors/pdf/AUA2014-Exhibitor-Prospectus.pdf

[Nigel]

Seems PEB are exhibiting at the AUA conference in May also, nice, a mere 11,000 American Urological Association members in attendance.

http://www.aua2014.org/exhibitors/pdf/AUA2014-Exhibitor-Prospectus.pdf

That prospectus is for this year's event, and lists (thanks) companies who participated last year - Pacific Edge was one of them. Not sure what sort of impact last year's attendance would have had, but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have hindered the great progress they've been making in the US.

Looking forward to a big 2014!

[etrader]

Can someone clarify how the inclusion works for the nzx50 listing:

My understanding is when they get to a certain capitalization level and hold that minimum value for x amount of time. Is it correct that they may be included by march ?

Lastly when they are in top 50 do certain fund managers need to re weight their portfolios if they invest in the top 50 for example.

[Slam dunk]

Can someone clarify how the inclusion works for the nzx50 listing:

My understanding is when they get to a certain capitalization level and hold that minimum value for x amount of time. Is it correct that they may be included by march ?

Lastly when they are in top 50 do certain fund managers need to re weight their portfolios if they invest in the top 50 for example.

Post #5833 will help you

[winner69]

Can someone clarify how the inclusion works for the nzx50 listing:

My understanding is when they get to a certain capitalization level and hold that minimum value for x amount of time. Is it correct that they may be included by march ?

Lastly when they are in top 50 do certain fund managers need to re weight their portfolios if they invest in the top 50 for example.

Sort of like that mate .... Brighton is a loal guru on such things - he will lay it out


Weird eh - if they are an index tracker instos HAVE to be buy a stock because it is in the index whether they like the company or not. Even if they dont track the index but use something like the index as a benchmark they almost are COMPELLED to buy in case they miss out and underperform.

From a PEB shareholder perspective maybe its the reward for being popular

[winner69]

PEB really need to come out with an an announcement - missing out in the hype stakes

Maybe they all back at work this week and they can tell the world about something good ... even if recycling old stuff

The market is looking for regular good news story from growth companies

[croesus]

CDY... ( Cellmid ).... any thoughts ? .... Do they hold PEB shares, whats the connection ? Will there S/P rise with PEB. ?

Need to do some research, but if any one has facts, or a opinion they would share.... Thanks in advance

[etrader]

I'm also a shareholder in Cdy but a very poor performing stock at this stage, they got issued milestone shares in PEB at approx .63c but my understanding is they have sold those. They get paid 2 percent royalty on what PEB sells.

[Harvey Specter]

Sort of like that mate .... Brighton is a loal guru on such things - he will lay it out


Weird eh - if they are an index tracker instos HAVE to be buy a stock because it is in the index whether they like the company or not. Even if they dont track the index but use something like the index as a benchmark they almost are COMPELLED to buy in case they miss out and underperform.

From a PEB shareholder perspective maybe its the reward for being popularThere is talk by (active) fund managers that they will use the "NZX50 - excl XRO" as their benchmark so they could do the same for PEB. Pure Index funds would have to hold though.

[Whipmoney]

There is talk by (active) fund managers that they will use the "NZX50 - excl XRO" as their benchmark so they could do the same for PEB. Pure Index funds would have to hold though.

Yeah the inclusion of Xero has definitely hurt the credibility of Active Fund managers as they are falling well below the benchmark so I can definitely see a new benchmark being formed.

[tunsbro]

Wonder how genuine the wall at 1.75 is? Big players usually don't show their hands like that unless they're trying to accumulate below that price.
I always hope that a bigger player snaps them all up in one swoop to p!ss them off.

[False Profit]

Having missed the boat 3 or 4 times with Wynyard Group (completely annoying), an announcement around now for PEB would be nice. Let's call it "The Wynyard Effect" for arguments sake.

PEB to $3 on next announcement.

[Bobcat.]

I'm also a shareholder in Cdy but a very poor performing stock at this stage, they got issued milestone shares in PEB at approx .63c but my understanding is they have sold those. They get paid 2 percent royalty on what PEB sells.

TA/Charting:
This time last year its sp dipped to 2c, then it spiked and last July dipped to 2.5c, and after spiking to 5c last November has dropped away to trade today at another dip at around 3c.
RSI is rising, and not a bad idea to get in while the price is low. If PEB has an upside, so will CDY.

Fundamentals:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131122/pdf/42l1qbb8b041qf.pdf

FY12/13 : $1m in PEB-related revenue alone (could this be a sale of shares?), royalties expected from 2Q14.
Also develops and markets many other cancer detection products (see page 15), hair loss prevention (p 19) and cancer therapeutics (e.g. Midkine antibody to slow tumour growth - see p 9-12).

[Bobcat.]

I'm also a shareholder in Cdy but a very poor performing stock at this stage, they got issued milestone shares in PEB at approx .63c but my understanding is they have sold those. They get paid 2 percent royalty on what PEB sells.

Any evidence you can point us to, etrader, re your understanding that CDY have sold out their PEB shares?

[LegendOfRiot]

Any idea of upcoming announcements? Can't wait for the NZX50 inclusion but anything before then would be a bonus.

[geo]

Any idea of upcoming announcements? Can't wait for the NZX50 inclusion but anything before then would be a bonus.

LegendOFRiot did,nt your mum tell you patience was a virtue??

[LegendOfRiot]

Normally I'm quite patient but the constant stream of news from WYN just makes me slightly more anxious than normal. I'll continue holding both and get back to work.

[couta1]

Normally I'm quite patient but the constant stream of news from WYN just makes me slightly more anxious than normal. I'll continue holding both and get back to work.
Every dog has its day:cool:

[Minerbarejet]

Normally I'm quite patient but the constant stream of news from WYN just makes me slightly more anxious than normal. I'll continue holding both and get back to work.
If you are looking for something to ease your mind and reduce your anxiety try reading this entire thread , if you haven't already.
Probable announcements
March : inclusion in nzx50 - highly likely
May : FY13 update on sales - some decent numbers at last - maybe
Aug: medicare medicade - perhaps earlier
Hangin there buddy
Cheers
Minerbarejet

[MAC]

There’s been lots of interesting speculation lately in regard to likely announcement dates, personally I don’t think the timing really matters, it makes no specific difference if you are a long term follower and investor in PEB.

We should anticipate a healthy but random distribution of good news throughout the entire five year plan, but some seem to think something is imminent, maybe it is, maybe not.

HMO advice from the 2013 capital raising presentation:
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/183827.pdf

“Pacific Edge is targeting large, integrated healthcare providers (such as Kaiser Permanente and Intermountain) ….. These integrated healthcare providers are targeted to be strategic partners for Pacific Edge – discussions have commenced between Pacific Edge and various integrated healthcare providers, however it is anticipated that these negotiations could take 12 months”

Medicare advice from Chis Swann ODT 28th December 2013: http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business

“Mr Swann welcomed Obamacare as ‘an opportunity’, but the legislative changes meant Pacific Edge had to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, but he hopes it will be through early in 2014”

I suspect as with all government bureaucracy that Medicare accreditation may drag out until all those civil servants decide they feel they have been adequately wined and dined enough so as to find their rubber stamps.

[winner69]

Nice interest in PEB today. Maybe the next announcement is not that far away after all?

Really need an announcement ....even a no news one .just a rave with a millions and zillions mentioned

At this rate the NZX might change their mind who to put in the 50 .....at the rate they are going SLI and WYN could be contenders ......they are winning the good news race

[Xerof]

B_E, you asked re technicals a few days ago.

looks like a bullish pennant forming once again on the daily, which should lead to topside breakout

not much to go on really, but most standard indicators remain positive

discl: holding, and do not provide money back guarantees

[Balance]

Really need an announcement ....even a no news one .just a rave with a millions and zillions mentioned

At this rate the NZX might change their mind who to put in the 50 .....at the rate they are going SLI and WYN could be contenders ......they are winning the good news race

Market capitalization as of close today :

PEB - $531m
WYN - $291m
SLI - $154m

HLG & RBD are both around $270m, and Skellerup is $350m.

[couta1]

Market capitalization as of close today :

PEB - $531m
WYN - $291m
SLI - $154m

HLG & RBD are both around $270m, and Skellerup is $350m.
I get SLI at $171m ?

[Goldstein]

I get SLI at $171m ?

Actually:

PEB - $541m
WYN - 302m
SLI - $171m

All your figures seem a bit low Balance.

[Balance]

Actually:

PEB - $541m
WYN - 302m
SLI - $171m

All your figures seem a bit low Balance.

All good - I obtained the numbers from an online trading website, so they could be off the mark by a few %tage.

Other important consideration for inclusion is free-float? WYN would have a fair chunk excluded due to non-tradeable stakes?

[Goldstein]

All good - I obtained the numbers from an online trading website, so they could be off the mark by a few %tage.

Other important consideration for inclusion is free-float? WYN would have a fair chunk excluded due to non-tradeable stakes?

Yes, you are right.

'To rank securities for consideration for the index it is necessary to consider the NZ
Free Float Market Capitalisation of each security, which is calculated from the “NZ Free
Float Shares”.'

There are also liquidity considerations as well which are calculated with median and mean values over the past 6 months. So some of us might be treating this a bit too simplistically.

[mrjeems]

So how will this NZX50 listing affect the stock? You'd think with the likelihood of it happening people would hold and wait right?
But the depth looks like a lot of people unloading from 1.70 to 1.80... Or maybe they are expecting it to rise up in anticipation and then drop off after the hype dies down?

[Balance]

So how will this NZX50 listing affect the stock? You'd think with the likelihood of it happening people would hold and wait right?
But the depth looks like a lot of people unloading from 1.70 to 1.80... Or maybe they are expecting it to rise up in anticipation and then drop off after the hype dies down?

Stocks do not go up in a straight line - especially stocks not researched by the conventional analysts.

If you notice, PEB has tended to gap - ie. move up or down in sizeable moves.

All those looking to unload at $1.70 to $1.80 are looking to play the big price movements, rather than the cent by cent.

I remember wall to wall selling at 55c to 60c when PEB was trending down towards 50c. Those who got taken out probably were happy (they made nice profits) but those who bought off them are ecstatic!

[croesus]

Strong buying today....picked up more earlier in the week.

Amazingly resilient stock.

[tunsbro]

The depth has balanced. Nice statement of intent slapped down at 1.70.
240,262 wanted between 3 buyers.

[tunsbro]

Big buyer at $1.70 (three buyers for a total of 240,262 shares). :)
Ha, too quick. Bright and early by nature, too.

[Balance]

The depth has balanced. Nice statement of intent slapped down at 1.70.
240,262 wanted between 3 buyers.

Big sellers around too.

[tunsbro]

Big sellers around too.
And you're 'balanced' by nature, makes sense.

Now we just need "Irrational Exuberance" and "Blindly Pessimistic" to post something and we'll have the whole set.

[winner69]

C'mon PEB, make an announcement

Even if it is that the kits are now available on Amazon ......that'll add a buck to the shareprice

No news ......ignominy on the horizon .....and your status as a growth stock and market darling will die

[mrjeems]

C'mon PEB, make an announcement

Maybe everyone at PEB is on their computers watching the WYN shareprice too...

[Dentie]

C'mon PEB, make an announcement

Even if it is that the kits are now available on Amazon ......that'll add a buck to the shareprice

No news ......ignominy on the horizon .....and your status as a growth stock and market darling will die

Why tell us on here Winner...call Mr D and tell him your concerns...

[Slam dunk]

Winner69 can you give up your relentless daily requests for empty news. Go for a long walk around the block.

[gv1]

C'mon PEB, make an announcement

Even if it is that the kits are now available on Amazon ......that'll add a buck to the shareprice

No news ......ignominy on the horizon .....and your status as a growth stock and market darling will die

Great Co, did great recruitments, lead by great scientists, Worlds leading innovators, Great investors involved with company.. anything else anyone.
happy now winner69.
Price will jump once all others have settled down, in the mean time don't sell any.

[Balance]

And you're 'balanced' by nature, makes sense.

Now we just need "Irrational Exuberance" and "Blindly Pessimistic" to post something and we'll have the whole set.

Haha - point being that a single order size of 220,000 shares will normally send the sp heading higher.

Not in this case as there are big sellers around.

Makes sense?

[Balance]

C'mon PEB, make an announcement

Even if it is that the kits are now available on Amazon ......that'll add a buck to the shareprice

No news ......ignominy on the horizon .....and your status as a growth stock and market darling will die

Haha - you are a hard dude to please, W69.

SP has piled on 28% in 3 weeks and you still want more?

Maybe WYN, MAD or SNK may better fit the bill?

[tunsbro]

Haha - point being that a single order size of 220,000 shares will normally send the sp heading higher.

Not in this case as there are big sellers around.

Makes sense?

Yes, completely. When I originally posted the sale hadn't happened, but still. Nice that there was a big buyer to soak it up than not.

[777]

Someone sold into the bid, not the other way around. Now there is a big seller with over 200k shares for sale at $1.70.

There are actually 5 sellers for a total of 240,150 shares. i.e. 48,000 average. Unless you have the actual breakdown of course.

[Balance]

There are actually 5 sellers for a total of 240,150 shares. i.e. 48,000 average. Unless you have the actual breakdown of course.

17t, 29t, 38t, 55t and 100t

Looks like there's a big buyer around and the buyer is happy to backfoot his buying.

[barney]

Interesting that even at a near record share price, we have only seen two shareholder disclosure notices. David Darling selling 80,000 shares and Harbour selling around 500,000 shares. With reasonably high turnover and a well supported shareprice, it seems most of the larger sharholders and people associated with the company are holding on.

[MAC]

Interesting that even at a near record share price, we have only seen two shareholder disclosure notices. David Darling selling 80,000 shares and Harbour selling around 500,000 shares. With reasonably high turnover and a well supported shareprice, it seems most of the larger sharholders and people associated with the company are holding on.

It all seems to be in the future Barney doesn’t it, well managed, leading science in a growing sector, further products in the pipeline awaiting cashflow, not overvalued, potentially exceptional margin's, profitability on the horizon, seems the market agree's that it would be hard to find a reason to sell.

[Minerbarejet]

Slow day today - only 2k in the 1st half hour

[couta1]

I know you're a long-termer Miner but traders beware, the market is starting to turn as profits get taken on our latest run...
SLI turning also but on low volume

[MAC]

Am I alone or does it always just seem peculiar to others also when some choose to correlate a company like PEB with some of the volatile tech stocks on the NZX.

Robust forward business strategy and announced financial goals, versus, volatile speculative growth and little guidance.

[JMKC]

Mac, if anything biotech has proven more volatile/risky than tech over the years. Average PS for entire US market is a raging 8 x compared to 7 x for tech...

FY14e P/S ratio for the S&P 500 is approx 1.6x. Not sure where you get 8x from. FY14e P/S for the NASDAQ is 2x.

[MAC]

Mac, if anything biotech has proven more volatile/risky than tech over the years. Average PS for entire US market is a raging 8 x compared to 7 x for tech...

Ahh, but then see, the fact that you have just chosen PS as a metric for PEB in itself highlights an opportunity for you Moosie to apply some improved differentiation.

One can apply much better analysis for PEB as more forward information and financial goals are available, a lesser metric like PS is not required.

Although I do agree that PS, albeit as a coarse and often inaccurate metric, is often all that is available for companies which are less financially forecast, like many early phase tech stocks.

From an FA standing at least the difference between PEB and your tech stocks is bold and clear.

[GRIFFIN]

Yes agree biotechs have been volatile but when you have a premium product and more to come plus the unfortunate situation of cancer not going away any time soon PEB may have a solid future.

[MAC]

It's a 'market of stocks' as much as it's a 'stock market' and each company is different.

Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.

Below are some links which I’ve found useful for biotechnology analysis and valuation over the last 18 months, happy to share with others.

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_CA/c...42f00aRCRD.htm (http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_CA/ca/industries/tmt/b6115312b90fb110VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm)

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/biotechvaluation.asp)

[Huskeez]

FY14e P/S ratio for the S&P 500 is approx 1.6x. Not sure where you get 8x from. FY14e P/S for the NASDAQ is 2x.

Its because he/she doesnt know what theyre talking about

[Schrodinger]

Let's get some sales then we can sort out what we have with PEB.

The MC at the moment has Millions of revenue built into the SP.

[Schrodinger]

Ahh, but then see, the fact that you have just chosen PS as a metric for PEB in itself highlights an opportunity for you Moosie to apply some improved differentiation.

One can apply much better analysis for PEB as more forward information and financial goals are available, a lesser metric like PS is not required.

Although I do agree that PS, albeit as a coarse and often inaccurate metric, is often all that is available for companies which are less financially forecast, like many early phase tech stocks.

From an FA standing at least the difference between PEB and your tech stocks is bold and clear.

Its actually not that clear. A lot of the tech companies have revenues to back their inflated share prices. PEB has talk and promises. I prefer revenue and paying customers over promises and huff and puff. Go to your bank and ask them what they like.