PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

Does anyone have an Idea just how much capital it would take to Promote a product in the states.
Maybe it doesnt need promoting,but it would be interesting to know.
Often times good products lose money at first, before starting slow steady growth.
Of course everyone would like to know what would be a good realistic starting point to jump in[some have mentioned low to mid 50s]
Most would agree ATM that the race up to 75 was a bit speculative but where it will settle before news is anyones guess.
We seem to be out of the ''id be cautious about being cautious''phase,but on the other side of the coin,it has only dropped 1 point below the physiological 60.
Not holding but watching with interest

[CJ]

Does anyone have an Idea just how much capital it would take to Promote a product in the states.I imagine it would be targeted to trade fairs/conferences etc so a lot less than promoting to retail (ie. end customers).

[GR8DAY]

......amazes me how the SP is holding up (just)......looking at the lack of Buy Depth. Dont think I wud be putting my hand up to buy more at the moment?

[GR8DAY]

.......havnt got any of those fancy chart plotter things Moose (except on the boat of course) but I do feel the butterflies stirring the GUTOMETER just over the last couple of days......feeling a bit nervous right now!

[Dej]

No significant buy volumes waiting, just rats and mice stuff; but, plenty of keen sellers, who cares anyway? Just because Bob decides he must sell today and flicks 2,700 shares at 27c, shouldn’t ring alarm bells. It most probably started with an outfit like NZ Securities dribbling out 500,000 or so on Monday & Tuesday.

There are ~1700 shareholders, ~1200 of those holders hold <40,000 and ~850 <20,000, they will trade, perhaps people sold out to buy BLT at 2cents ............

Be strong grasshopper.

Thats completely my methodology, and if I cam pick up some of Bobs shares because he likes the sound of probiotics compared to cancer medication - thats win win in my books.

I will be strong Oh wise one.

[skid]

Launched in OZ in June--no news yet--that 60 cent resistance is proving to be rather stubborn.
I think we could call it rangebound ATM

I stand corrected

Do you feel it grasshopper? It is the feeling of fear...but do not fear grasshopper..it is only......money

[JohnnyTheHorse]

There certainly aren't any buyers around! One would have to be stupid to sell at this price, given the prospects.

[chippy52]

If it were to continue down the next level of support would be around 40c. Some chart indicators are still heading southward.

[chippy52]

Just checked the bollies and has broken through the bottom so my guess is it will drift down.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

MACD is on the verge of crossing into negative territory on both counts. RSI and stochaistic are both oversold.

Class, can anyone tell me what this means?

Doesn't mean anything if you're holding for the long term. The price will still either be 20 cents or >$5 in 4-5 years time.

[Dej]

Wow - down to 54c.

Maybe there might be some more change behind the sofa I can apply to this company yet?


I found some :t_up:

[skid]

Fear! Are you suggesting Skid that 30,000 shares trading yesterday at 57c out of a total 279,000,000 is something to be concerned about?

It was mostly tongue in cheek Hancock,but this whole ''grasshopper'' business was basically a humorous way of saying -dont pay any attention to what the market is indicating,carry on,be brave,ignore.

So what do you think the tone of the last week has been?
Maybe your word was better-concerned

[skid]

Ps. My comments are about the shareholders[Mr market] not the company[as there has been no news to go on.]
It is a multi headed beast that contributes to those little numbers you see on your screen.....grasshopper

[skid]

The danger with trading in this company is that most people don't understand the business.

That is a very interesting comment David B--I for one dont fully understand the Biotec business and any further education would not go astray for me--could you elaborate?

[blobbles]

Great numbers there Hancocks, good comment.

The thing I understand about the product though, and please correct me if I am wrong, is that it is fairly portable and still reliable. What I mean to say with this is that a customer could literally pee into the thing, wrap it up and send it to the labs for analysis. Obviously there would be some time limit where the sample would be less and less useful (i.e. fresh sample is best), but I can't imagine it would be more than a few days. Now, if this is the case, wouldn't the numbers you have, particularly in the US be much greater than you suggest as the test can essentially be sent from anywhere within the US to the lab?

Or is the test still going to be administered, processed and sent (via special couriers?) by urologists to the lab? I aren't sure what the deal is with medical samples being sent around the place, I am sure however that they require at least special packaging if not completely separate transport.

[skid]

Fought tooth and nail for a 1 cent gain but looks like the bleeding has stopped?
I think alot of investors have most likely gotten an education on how this share has the ability to have some monumental swings in both directions.
We are still in spec. territory at this stage.

[skid]

I just love watching the market work, what a hoot! I bought my first PEB in the IPO in 2002 at 25c so I've seen this roller coaster each year since, it never fails to amuse the heck out of me. Mind you, this is the biggest hump I've been over - woo hoo.

Be strong grasshopper.

A good entry point is cricial IMHO--wish I had yours Hancock--best of luck.
Hope to be on board someday but cautious ATM
Watching with interest.

[winner69]

a cynic might say hope it des better than some of his previous investments .... but then again he has done ok in life

[Huskeez]

I bought in yesterday based purely on technicals (see picture)RSI - was creeping up sharply to 50 markMACD - was about to cross over just under 0PEB was still a ways off from hitting its highs and was previously in a downtrend14,21 SMA'S stalled 7 SMA about to come up and smoke themBeautiful... bankd today thanks PEB

[Huskeez]

Yes mate i was flipping a coin yesterday between them and airnz, figured id go with peb for better % gains. Also took my profits early as i got in @ .70 with HNZ watched it go all the way to .75 ( TA was already dead buy then) then ended up getting out at .73... :(

[Huskeez]

No worries, I left HNZ as well, got out at 72 so don't feel too bad! Starting to flatline and not enough action for my liking, but still got away with a slight profit nonetheless. I was expecting 75 again but it never happened. Ah well, wait for a fall back then buy-in again! AIR ain't doing too bad at all, but suspect it will start to peter out soon enough. PEB is the place to be right now it looks like. See how high this puppy goes. ;) How's all the TA research going btw?Haha nice yeah TA research going all good mate still learning at the moment trying to find which time frames give the best insights into buyng and selling signals .At the moment really liking the 3 monthly charts with daily time frames. Yeah definetly still keeping an eye on HNZ, just a matter of time

[winner69]

Taxi driver was telling me about this PEB the other day .... taxi drivers are not very busy these days and have lots of idle time on their hands so some of them use their tablets to keep tabs on the market ... through sharetrader he said and I said surely not .... but his main source of info he said is from the suits he picks up off the auckland plane ... and a lot of those suits are apparently excited about this PEB

he told me he had bought 3000 shares and he knows of some other taxi drivers who have bought some as well

he also has some Opus as he a regular who is commuting to Chch because the firm is just soooo soooo busy down there

[CJ]

First NZ Taxis, a proud subsidiary of.....I assume your NZ First taxi company would not be staffed by immigrants and would give super gold card holders free rides.


The point I was trying to make above, taxi inference or not, was that there is significant awareness of PEB by a number of people I would consider to be financially literate and investment savvy. More people now understand the potential and the risks of the company, than say mid 2012, or mid 2011 when they had a rights issue.Or are they all rich middle age + men hoping it does come off so that their doctors visits are a little more pleasant.

I am in and hoping the technology (for NZ inc) and the share price (for me) take off.

[Dej]

Not really a handgun person, but had some fun at a US firing range once with a Glock 38 and a Sig Sauer 9mm (or was it the other way around)

Just out of interest, how much did that cost? Have always wanted to try something along those lines - like you not a huge handgun fan but always interested!

[Dej]

My sister fired an AK-74 and M60 (think SAW, Vietnam war) over in Laos. They came up to her afterwards (ex-army guys) and said "$200 US, you fire RPG at cow", all whilst pointing at a hapless moo-cow a few metres away. She declined...

Ok thats a bit messed up... some of those south-eastern asian countries are a bit to relaxed with their gun laws, but I think thats the last of their worries!

[skid]

Man..the ups and downs are making me dizzy--surely there must be some news in the wings with this kind of action.--or maybe its just the taxi drivers..

[BobbyMorocco]

Just out of interest, how much did that cost? Have always wanted to try something along those lines - like you not a huge handgun fan but always interested!

Hey guys been lurking around the forum for a while reading all that which you have to say and saw this and thought it's time for me to make a comment. Pretty stoked my first ever comment on this forum is going to be about guns.

When I was backpacking through Estonia last year it cost me 75 Euro to spend an hour playing around with various guns. I got to use a glock, a .357 Magnum Revolver, an AK47, a M4 assault rife, a pump action shotgun that they referred to as the 'roomcleaner' from the Terminator movies and also fired one round out of the .50 Desert Eagle..... however, this one was not gold plated.

I'm not much of the hunter gatherer type, but now I've got a taste for it I think visiting more of these shooting ranges is on the cards for me. I've heard of this firing of bazookas and rocket launchers at cows and scrap cars in Southeast Asia, so while I'm backpacking around there later this year I'll be sure to give it a go and report back to you guys. I'm currently undecided as to whether I'd actually shoot a cow....... I'm reasonably attached to them considering my grandfather was a dairy farmer and now that I hold ATM.

[lastmoa]

http://www.jurology.com/article/S0022-5347(12)03701-9/abstract

Note the conclusion, this would mean that as NMP22 is an established product we just need their customers to shift.

http://www.alere.com/us/en/brands/nmp22.html

I don't profess to understand all this medical terminology, but this older (but relevant) article states (in broad summary) that, until a more sensitive product than NMP-22 is found, then urethrocystoscopy will still be the reference test for detecting and diagnosing bladder cancers.
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/481628_8

[Dej]

Support certainly building up at 60 cents, glad I bought in below it. MACD, RSI and stochaistic all pointing to the sky, bring on zee buyers.

You feeling snug as a bug now as well Sparky? Good choice on the 57, nearly bought in at the bottom.

DISC - Holding

I bought half at 60, and then half at 57 as well! so feeling alright myself too!

[Dentie]

Technical trading when their is no news my friend. We traders dominate then ;)

I agree Moosie. Fundamentals (& monitoring of such) for early research and "get in", then Technicals for ongoing monitoring and "get out" ... (if you're a trader). Both Fundamentals & Technicals have been telling me for some time that if one is not in soon, they are throwing money away. Look at the "depth" at the moment ...

Disc. Large holding below 25c

[GRIFFIN]

OOH Hancocks or should i say Waldo my son, that may upset a few PEB punters.

[skid]

It may also save a few skins
Hes a long time holder and supporter but has left his emotions at the door it seems [along with Sparky],which is a good thing IMHO
Market sentiment is like a boat without a rudder[no news] at this stage.
It has been all over the place as we have seen in the last few weeks.
Id be really surprised if they dont get the ok in the states---Market uptake is the holy grail

[Balance]

Support certainly building up at 60 cents, glad I bought in below it. MACD, RSI and stochaistic all pointing to the sky, bring on zee buyers.

You feeling snug as a bug now as well Sparky? Good choice on the 57, nearly bought in at the bottom.

DISC - Holding

Sigh, if only the forum had some one like you urging all of us on when DIL was 63 cents and XRO was $1.50.

We would all be retired!

Meant as a compliment.

[Dentie]

The indicators are based on sales data to last market close and there are several, whether they are useful or not I could not possibly comment, as I’m not a chartist. If you are new to the share market - Buy and Sell on knowledge and research otherwise it is not a calculated risk, it’s just plain risky.

Nothing can beat research into the stock you are interested in, read everything, ask questions, identify and know the competitors and most important of all, assess the level of risk you want to take on board (how much dollars).

What were the charts saying about PEB between 2002 and mid 2012 when the price was ~$0.20?

What were the charts saying about DIL when the price was ~$0.63?

If you are new to the share market - most importantly when you are looking to buy, get market depth even if you have to buy a small initial parcel of the shares just to qualify (Sharetrader) this lets you see what’s happening now!

The charts only indicate S#!% should have bought; or S#!% should have sold!


In my most humble opinion, I believe the technical indicators are based on what the SP is doing. I totally agree that knowledge and research is paramount to trading/investing with confidence. Understanding the dynamics of the candles, volumes, moving averages, RSI and chart patterns etc really helps also. For example, I believe we are nearing the end of a pennant structure with PEB and unless something totally unexpected happens, I expect the price to surge again soon. Totally agree with you Hancock's and Sparky about the fundamentals too, which gives me more confidence to expect an upsurge soon. Of course I could be all up the booeye too, but that's the market risk. Lastly, I think the market is now in the middle of pricing in the expected sales data. It has been my experience that the major money is made prior to the data becoming public. The crumbs come after the event.

[Balance]

I take on board most of what you've said but I'm not sure about PEB's price reflecting expected sales data. The current price is a significant discount to a potential share price assuming 1% uptake in the first year.

The cautious case

If they can earn 1% market share in the USA for bladder cancer, they will do around 8000 tests per annum, or around 660 a month, or only 22 a day. That would suggest $6.4-$7.5m approx in revenue, and around $3.2m to $3.7 in NPAT in $USD. That suggests around 1.35c to 1.6c in EPS in NZD.

If they can grow by around 35% a year in market share for the next five years, then their share price should re-rate to 80c-90c for the end of FY2013.

A more bullish case

If PEB can earn 3% market share, they will do around 25,000 tests, which will deliver $20m USD in revenue, or $9m USD in NPAT. This is around 4c NZD in earnings. Let's say they can grow this by around 25% per annum over the next five years. I would see an intrinsic share price of around $1.70 then.

A very bullish case

PEB get 5% market share with 25% growth per annum. That's 40,000 tests, $32m in revenue, $14.4m USD in NPAT, or 6.3cps in earnings in NZD. I would see intrinsic value of around $2.70.

- - -

Now, how many tests can the lab do a year? 260,000. Presumably they didn't build for that level of capacity unless they thought they could do it one day.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/165006.pdf

Thus speaketh the Clown. I reserve the right to recheck these figures tomorrow.... :-)

Here's how the market will price PEB if the US proves to be a success :

260,000 tests x US$500 per test = US$130m

Profit margin = 60% = US$78m

Market will get excited about the other tests in the pipeline so will give PEB a multiple of 25 times = US$1950m = NZ$2.335b

279m shares on issue

So share price will be $8.37 per share.

How's that for bullishness?

[Balance]

balance - I dare not dream to that level, but if that happens, I'll be incredibly rich, and I hope you will be too!

Sadly, I am afraid it will not reach that level. A multi-national will offer shareholders $5.00 a share next year and most shareholders will take the offer.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Here's how the market will price PEB if the US proves to be a success :

260,000 tests x US$500 per test = US$130m

Profit margin = 60% = US$78m

Market will get excited about the other tests in the pipeline so will give PEB a multiple of 25 times = US$1950m = NZ$2.335b

279m shares on issue

So share price will be $8.37 per share.

How's that for bullishness?

Meh, just their 5th year forecast.

[Balance]

Hi Dentie, I think the term used for that sort of behavior is actually 'insider trading' and it's sort of frowned on; in fact, it might get someone a term in the 'slammer' - however, I'm absolutely sure you are definitely not referring to PEB in this instance. :D

Dentie is referring to the imminent announcement of the lab certification?

That is public information. Where they are at with it and how likely they are to get it - that is insider information if someone knows and use that infor before the rest of the market is informed.

So far, PEB has been on time and on schedule. With these things however, always expect delays.

[skid]

The movements haven't been that massive and the trading looks like it has been confined to funds taking a punt on the SP (e.g. Huljich). I am very wary of the Oz market because I have seen multiple stocks (e.g. BBG, MOD, MEO, OGC) shoot up/down on massive trading about 5-10 minutes before a trading halt is announced for news on multiple occasions. If that isn't news leaking out badly I don't know what is...

I think it is just a fact of life that there are privileged ""insiders'' in every area of the economy,especially the sharemarket --Lets face it-there are not many white collar criminals in the ''slammer''

[Dej]

Could be a very interesting morning ............

65 already...

[Dentie]

Hi Dentie, I think the term used for that sort of behavior is actually 'insider trading' and it's sort of frowned on; in fact, it might get someone a term in the 'slammer' - however, I'm absolutely sure you are definitely not referring to PEB in this instance. :D

Hi Hancocks (& Balance). I was not referring to insider trading - and most definitely was not referring to PEB in this way ... they appear to be a great firm.

In the context of the rest of my post, I was just trying to get the point across that if traders and/or investors got their fundamental and technical research right - and their tolerance for risk, patience and belief systems etc etc, then they are normally the early birds. Hence, by the time other traders and/or investors finally decided it was right for them to join in - the early birds would have already made a nice return. But, as we know, there is always the unknown factors (or the uncalculable) that can occur in the market and that's when the possibility for a loss exists. Potential loss and minimisation of risk etc is down to the individual.

The bottom line is...as a lot of posters ahve said ... do your homework, learn the game and trust your instincts. I would say if you are a nervous nellie, then either don't play in the market, or at least only play with what you can afford to lose.

[CJ]

unless of course he meant financial year and then we might be waiting a bit yet?They have a March year end so if they were talking financial years, early 2013 was back in 2012.

Financial year 2013 only has 27 days left.

[BobbyMorocco]

I'm pretty sure at the AGM last year they said they were aiming for the CxBladder launch in the US during March.

The half year report to the end of September 2012 said that "Looking forward, the next six months will be focused on the US market roll-out, putting in place operating protocols, running the facility to specification and filing the respective documentation with CLIA in New York to obtain the required regulatory approval that will enable us to start our commercial offerings to urologists."

PEB's announcement on the 17th October 2012 regarding the completion of their US laboratory stated, "The purpose-built laboratory in Hershey, Pennsylvania is expected to complete regulatory approval and be fully operational in March 2013 to offer Pacific Edge's bladder cancer diagnostic test, Cxbladder, as a Laboratory Developed Test (LDT) to clinicians throughout the United States."

I haven't heard otherwise to say this isn't happening, so like others I expect it in the next wee while, even if they are running a little bit behind their estimates from last year.

[skid]

I think his point was more the last 2 sentences of the paragraph.
They seem to have a good product--the job now is to promote it

[Balance]

Well said, DavidB.

Those investing (or even speculating in PEB) need to read your last posting very carefully.

Good returns have been made the likes of DIL but they are some of the hardest investments to make and monitor. The gyrations in their share prices as punters move in and out were worse than any roller coaster ride you could ever encounter.

Better have the stomach for it.

[Dentie]

Thank you, Skid, that's pretty much it in a nutshell.

And the other point I was driving at was understanding who is and what drives the customer here, what are their professional needs and wants? What are the paradigms under which they operate and what underpins their selection of a new product? What makes them start using it? Because the customer here (at the point of patronising lecturing) is not Mum and Dad, it is a specialist professional, the medical practitioner. And if you don't believe me, then you go out and try and buy a CXbladder test kit for use by yourself, and see how far you get.

From some of the comments I have read on this thread, the penny clearly hasn't dropped for some. They just don't get it. They seem to think that this product will simply fly off the shelves because it's so amazing and marvellous. It will sell it self. It's a break through! It's like some fantastic new gizmo that's just arrived in the shops and every doctor will want one. They are letting their enthusiasm, but also their ignorance about how the practice of modern medicine works, cloud their judgement. And without a thorough understanding of modern medicine, and all the players within it, and how all the bits come together how do you know if the company is doing a good job or not selling its products? How do you judge that, its business plan and strategies? How do you asses the potential of its products and the companies claims about them? How do you bench mark progress? What are the milestones that should be expected? What restrictions/rules might there be on how the product can be marketed and who administers those? Who here has even posted about that or suggested that such rules might even exist? Maybe investors are just going to rely on everything the company tells them, but I bet they wouldn't do that with Telecom or PGW or any of the other companies on the NZX. And intelligent investors don't. And has anyone here undertaken any research as to what the role of the FDA will be in relation for their hoped for growth in PEB's share price? Do they even know what the FDA is?

Anyway that's my rant for the day, and I'm making no further comments on PEB. But I'm just really frustrated that biotech has bombed so badly in this country, and a large part of that has been because of unrealistic investor expectations driven by a medical and scientific deficit in understanding to correctly asses a biotech company's potential and risk. PEB in my view is the first of the publicly listed biotech companies in NZ that actually has a shot of being successful. And I would be very disappointed if that gets cut off at the knees because sales or profit fail to meet market expectations, when those expectations were based on misplaced assumptions and ignorance in the first place.

Settle down David ... it sounds like you have been been rough trod by some previous unsuspecting Bio firm. Given your comments, you appear to be an authority on bio firms and what their share prices are doing (or should be doing). Despite many questions from me - who is desperately trying to learn - nobody has given me any credible reason as to why the like of XRO is riding at the level it is. To me, everything tells me they are riding on thin air alone. At $8, when the likes of Ryman for example is travelling nicely - but only at $4.60.... I can't make a rationale comparison in either fundamentals or technicals. Can you help me?

[zgnz]

Just want to +1 David B's post/rant, very refreshing.

It's painful to see dumb money invested & subsequently lost in poorly understood investments/speculations. (Not saying PEB is this.)

[zgnz]

Post number 1, welcome to the Sharetrader forum. stir it up and poke it with a stick; it's good fun and we can learn from these good folk.
regards Steve :t_up:

I just thought David B has raised some valid points in reference to PEB, that can also be applied generally to people investing in companies/industries they may not fully understand (not specifically anyone here.)

I was showing appreciation to his post/rant.

I'm not here to tread on any toes, just to learn more about different investment opportunities. :)

*Back to PEB talk*

[Dentie]

I just thought David B has raised some valid points in reference to PEB, that can also be applied generally to people investing in companies/industries they may not fully understand (not specifically anyone here.)

I was showing appreciation to his post/rant.

I'm not here to tread on any toes, just to learn more about different investment opportunities. :)

*Back to PEB talk*

Here's some PEB talk .....

http://www.sbwire.com/press-releases/pacific-edge-limited-peb-product-pipeline-analysis-new-study-released-213808.htm

[GRIFFIN]

It looks fairly simple to me PEB is at a speculative price certainly not its base value so buying at its present share price is a real punt and hope like hell its a goer. those who purchased under 30 cents have a bit of slack if things don't go quite like is expected.

[Balance]

David B did have some very good pointers for anyone looking to invest (especially those new to investing) in medical or biotech shares (and others), time frames are long and the risks are very high. If I remove those good points raised, this is what I'm left with:

From some of the comments I have read on this thread, the penny clearly hasn't dropped for some. They just don't get it. They seem to think that this product will simply fly off the shelves. They are letting their enthusiasm, but also their ignorance cloud their judgement. And without a thorough understanding of modern medicine, and all the players within it, Who here has even posted about that or suggested that such rules might even exist? And has anyone here undertaken any research as to what the role of the FDA will be in relation for their hoped for growth in PEB's share price? Do they even know what the FDA is?

Even I are not that inflammatory, or passionate about a post. So full marks to David for his passion! As Dentie points out, he may have been previously burned and just sharing his knowledge or warnings.

Genesis burnt and has scared off a lot of investors and punters. Likewise, BLT. Promised so much and delivered nothing of any real commercial substance. Hence, only right to be wary and cautious.

The IT sector also burnt a lot of fingers but the likes of DIL and XRO now show that serious wealth can be created from good companies in the sector.

How do you know they are good companies though?

Proper research, analysis and interaction with the company and its management are critical. And learning to discount the bs.

I draw a lot of comfort and confidence with PEB that Cxbladder is well and truly past the speculative research stage now into full commercialisation.

There are also several profile investors in there who do their homework. They have their teams doing research and analysis, and they meet with the company's directors and management on a regular basis.

Just don't bet the farm though!

[BobbyMorocco]

I’m with you Hancocks. Not that it bothers me but personally I think it’s a little bit late to be making statements saying we expect to have CxBladder commercially available in the US early in the current year 2013, when it’s March 4 already. To me ‘early 2013’ has almost been and gone but we all know PEB like to keep their cards pretty close to their chest. Perhaps there is no delay and it could possibly happen anytime from now, and with 25 or so days left in the month they could still meet their expectations.

At the moment I’m keeping a watchful eye on proceedings, as I currently do not hold, but have been tempted a few times to get in. I’ve only been in this game for a very short time and PEB has excited me right from when I first started taking an interest in stocks. The more I read and learn about the company the more I like it and the more confident I get that it will be a success, yet I’m still playing the wait and see game for now. I first thought about getting in last December when PEB was trading in the low 40’s, but I didn’t….. I then missed the boat a little bit. Since that massive jump in share price in January I’ve thought that there’s still too much risk and too much speculation for my liking to buy in at these prices when my view is to hold for the long term. The risk vs reward was probably worth it prior to January when it was in the 40’s, but now I don’t think it is, hence I’m waiting until we’re more informed with how things are progressing. The full year result due in May is likely to be the decider as to whether or not I get in. Hopefully if things are looking good I’ll still be able to buy in for a reasonable price at that time (I don’t want to be the guy who misses out) and if things aren’t looking good then I can take pleasure in knowing I dodged around it by being cautious and minimalizing the risk. It’s all very exciting times ahead and I wish each and every one of us all the best with it.

[croesus]

Totally agree Griffin.... I am a long term holder.. but I fear any hiccup, delay, or Legal issue in the U.S. could see a rapid decline back to the mid 20s.. fingers crossed.

[skid]

I draw a lot of comfort and confidence with PEB that Cxbladder is well and truly past the speculative research stage now into full commercialisation.
![/QUOTE]

Agreed--no problems with the product----the speculation is all about market uptake-
The product has to be well and truly brought to the attention of the medical community--promoted-,and then
LOTS of these puppies have to be bought.

[benjitara]

I think the main positive with this company now is that they have a commercial product. Knowledge is only power when directed and used. This is proving to be the case with PEB.They have a competitive advantage (as test results have shown) over competitors and are now implementing recruitment. Very positive intent and initiative. It's a hard market?,of course it is but no worthy endeavour is easy so they have to be given credit for just how far they've come with this.

[Dentie]

Please have a look at this, only just stumbled across it, a year old but very interesting just the same.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYwsIvbrQlk


Oh gee Hancocks please don't do this to me. I have been so infected by other comments that I have been busy offloading all my shares. Now I want to start buying again ...

[Dentie]

Oh dear oh dear oh dear, would it help if I delete the post?

I'll just take my tongue out of my cheek .....Nope ... I'm a believer and have no problem with risk. If I lose the lot, I lose the lot ..... that's the game. BUT, if PEB do well .... then I suspect there may be some that wondered "what happened". Sometimes in life you have to take a calculated risk & trust your own research, analysis & plain instincts. Far more fun doing that - than being nervous and playing safe by putting your money with god knows how many well advertised finance companies.

I'm in for the ride, come what may ...

[Balance]

I suspect you are right.

Watch this one move, once one big seller is out of the way.

If it coincides with a positive announcement on US, expect the sp to gap to 75 cents initially.

Here's watching.

[Balance]

That report is going to make or break the SP in the short-term. Holders need to be praying hard!

Don't think so, moosie.

Sp action says to me that the nervous ones are selling out.

Those staying in know that the registration process is one which will have a few Q&A with the US authorities in the weeks ahead. PEB's track record for delivering on time and budget is good.

I look at DIL and think of the 'gift' granted by the nervous and impatient holders to those who bought off them in the last few weeks.

[Balance]

Shares are often a useful means to determine IQ arbitrage between the patient and the easily scared.

Risk tolerance arbitrage, STC, maybe more appropriate?

Some of us scare easy!!!!

[Balance]

Someone just bought 30,000 at 67 cents.

Me thinkth that 70 cents will be where it will be next week.

[barney]

Pacific edge have been doing groundwork in the US for a couple of years now and I think they would have been in close contact with the relevant authorities from a very early stage about what was required to get the lab approved. The fact that they are hiring sales and management staff in the US should be a sign that things are on track.

Good to see the shareprice end the week on a high note.

[Balance]

Pacific edge have been doing groundwork in the US for a couple of years now and I think they would have been in close contact with the relevant authorities from a very early stage about what was required to get the lab approved. The fact that they are hiring sales and management staff in the US should be a sign that things are on track.

Good to see the shareprice end the week on a high note.

Exactly right, Barney. This is no flash harry, flash in the pan company promising the earth and delivering dirt.

Look at who's on the clinical advisory board of PEB.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/clinical_advisory_board

They have been doing their homework and delivering, stage by stage.

[Dej]

In fairness, those guys on the Blis thread will not be talking about pottles of ice cream for much longer :p

Hahaha! Made my saturday! (Sorry to those BLT holders - but clowns are meant to be funny!)

[kizame]

In fairness, those guys on the Blis thread will not be talking about pottles of ice cream for much longer :p

Um I don't think they are talking about anything,there hasn't been much talk for a while.

[Citizen Erased]

15 Year Old Kid Develops Foolproof Test for Pancreatic, Ovarian and Lung Cancer; Test Costs 3 Cents, Takes 5 Minutes
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/15-year-old-kid-develops-foolproof-test.html

[winner69]

Um I don't think they are talking about anything,there hasn't been much talk for a while.

All gone back to school ....holidays over

[kizame]

All gone back to school ....holidays over

hahaha hillarious.

[Dej]

15 Year Old Kid Develops Foolproof Test for Pancreatic, Ovarian and Lung Cancer; Test Costs 3 Cents, Takes 5 Minutes
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/15-year-old-kid-develops-foolproof-test.html

This shows that placing two quite simple ideas together creates a very novel technology - if this kid patents this, it could be our next PEB. :t_up:

[Dentie]

Nice to see .....

http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-builds-us-team-ahead-cxbladder-launch/5/149719

[Balance]

Exactly right, Barney. This is no flash harry, flash in the pan company promising the earth and delivering dirt.

Look at who's on the clinical advisory board of PEB.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/clinical_advisory_board

They have been doing their homework and delivering, stage by stage.

Announcement shows that PEB is doing its groundwork step by step.

Steady, surely and with focus.

I hope in a year's time, we will all be looking back and proud we supported this company which is going to make a huge difference to the world of medicine.

[Balance]

Someone just bought 30,000 at 67 cents.

Me thinkth that 70 cents will be where it will be next week.

70 cents it is today.

Probably come back a touch before the real major announcement?

[CJ]

nice news. but it's not CLIA certification. Mind you, they wouldn't be appointing directors unless they knew CLIA was coming :-)Agree. The timing of the hire suggests it is close and the are continuing to say early 2013 for the opening.

They are ready to hit the ground running.

[Huskeez]

6:1 BID/ASK ratio, and no real resistance on the sell side looks like an open runway to me

[lastmoa]

6:1 BID/ASK ratio, and no real resistance on the sell side looks like an open runway to me

Yep, I am happy with the rollout of developments and just loaded up on the final parcel I wanted as this higher price. Comfortable with paying 0.71 for this final amount. 8-)

[lastmoa]

Not quite, the news to justify it isn't there yet. Wait until the afternoon and see where the price goes from there (pros trade in the afternoon after the amateurs have bought everything up in the morning while on their grande latte highs).

We shall see. 8-) At my initial entry I didn't see a few cents to top up, at these prices, as a hinderance. Nice latte though. lol

[benjitara]

This is a big step in the right direction for me. Talecris merger deal was worth 4 billion bucks and this appointment is pretty close to that clout.

[lastmoa]

Dellow has now made 4c a share - but who is counting.

LOL. Too funny. I'd be mad to sell after now finally loading up. I'm here for when she truely pulls out of the station.
Have done my research, with all posters help here too .... and I am happy.

[Huskeez]

Not quite, the news to justify it isn't there yet. Wait until the afternoon and see where the price goes from there (pros trade in the afternoon after the amateurs have bought everything up in the morning while on their grande latte highs).Mate if today isnt a runway i dont know what is..... up 19.7% on the day

[Dentie]

Other than that crazy one off trade at 75c a while back does anyone recall with the intra day high was at that same time? Only reason I ask is I imagine we are starting to test those levels again. Was it 66?


....it just needed a bit of faith ......currently on 79c and .....

[blobbles]

I think Sparky will be the happiest man here today as he bought most of his shares at (how much Sparky?) 19c?!

I am still smiling having entered at 41c in August. Someone I met told me about them last June and I finally got around to doing research, and then quickly buying, in November! Wish I had done it earlier but there you go.

Was hoping to sell down some HNZ shares while the spread between the prices was looking all right, but now they are the same price! Damn!

[Huskeez]

Looking a bit dangerous now, depth getting stretched on the buy side. Remember, there are plenty of opportunists to sell down on that thin red line. +20% on a new CEO being appointed is a bit thin in my books...Sellers starting to add up scaplt again today in @ .68c out at .75c .... 3rd time i have scaplt with PEBTo quote Nathaniel, the first Lord Rothschild "investment should be like a cold shower Quick in, quick out" :)

[blobbles]

Bastards....

[blobbles]

Only joking really, just wanted to scare you!

I only have minor moral issues with traders like you guys Moosie!

[blobbles]

Average buy price under 32c, but I did top up my holding a bit a few weeks back at 57c.


I was thinking of topping up too when the price went up to 60c. But I went away for spring festival in China instead and then completely forgot. Ahhh well, can't complain about making money, I have to remember to temper my greed!

[Huskeez]

Bastards....Haha thats what i was saying on friday and yesterday watching DIL !

[blobbles]

Geez... 79c! This is a bit mad now isn't it?

[Huskeez]

Geez... 79c! This is a bit mad now isn't it?Na some guys have finally cottoned on and look like they are taking some profits now!

[Huskeez]

Back to 73. Told you to watch out Huskeez. "Never underestimate the other guys GREED!" ;)I took my profits @.75, for a 10.29% gain for on the day. Im so happy i have removed my undies......they are now on my head... not happy about having nightshift tonight though :(

[blobbles]

Haha thats what i was saying on friday and yesterday watching DIL !

Me too, I sold my DIL shares @5.50 to pay the tax man, if I had held on to them for a few weeks and accepted the tax mans late penalties, I still would have been up a few thousand. But of course hindsight is perfect...

[Huskeez]

Me too, I sold my DIL shares @5.50 to pay the tax man, if I had held on to them for a few weeks and accepted the tax mans late penalties, I still would have been up a few thousand. But of course hindsight is perfect...Must have taken some patience to hold that during the past few months where it was consolidating ! Bugger on missing out on that but hey theres always oppurtunites though :)

[garfy]

Brilliant, Sparky!! Love both the music and PEB. Enjoy your comments.

Garfy.

[Huskeez]

Why sell? The success story is about to start..... I have commitment issues...

[blobbles]

Must have taken some patience to hold that during the past few months where it was consolidating ! Bugger on missing out on that but hey theres always oppurtunites though :)

In at average 2.55, out at 5.50, I can't complain. Still holding some but not as many as I would like :-(

Sparky's right about this one, the success of PEB is just around the corner I think too. When they start selling to the US/Europe is when we will see some more amazing gains. To top that off, I think they will be sustainable gains backed up by actual profits and dividend payments (I am picking first dividend in the first half of next year!).

[Dentie]

Me too, I sold my DIL shares @5.50 to pay the tax man, if I had held on to them for a few weeks and accepted the tax mans late penalties, I still would have been up a few thousand. But of course hindsight is perfect...


So glad I'm a long term holder .......... keep hold of my tax that way. It's like a profit top up.

[blobbles]

Question:

For those long term holders (not traders) of PEB, whom haven't sold down yet and have an average buy in price of roughly 40c or less, I'd like to ask, do you have a price, or specific company milestone in mind whereby you anticipate you will lower your associated risk by taking a bit of profit?

I've been thinking about this a bit more recently after the latest SP increases and am tending towards the pending CLIA certification announcement as potentially a good time to sell down a bit. I figure if/when the announcement comes the SP should rise a bit more and should easiliy be a time where I could lock in 100% profit on a percentage of my shares (I am in sub 40c). Another reason I think this time could be a good time to sell down is because it is a time where the biggest current risks associated with this company still exist, i.e. the up-take of CXbladder by US urologists.

Any thoughts on this?

I don't work like that. The money I am investing in shares is money that I can afford to lose (relatively speaking) and invest long term for the divies. Therefore my sell price/profit price is based on (in the order I think about them):

1. When the companies fundamentals change or its potential is exhausted.
2. When there are other better oppourtunities on the market.
3. I need the money (in the case of Diligent I could have used money from other investments but the break cost was too high, I planned a little poorly).
4. When my wife needs the money :-)

For PEB, the price I might start selling is above $6, if the company continues to go from strength to strength and the above factors don't come into play. At that stage they will have a good dividend stream though so even then I will only sell if I want to do something silly like buy a house.

Oh yeah - I probably aren't a big investor (holding 40k PEB with it being my second largest holding), so for me the reward/risks aren't massive. For others holding more it probably will be!

[Dentie]

I don't work like that. The money I am investing in shares is money that I can afford to lose (relatively speaking) and invest long term for the divies. Therefore my sell price/profit price is based on (in the order I think about them):

1. When the companies fundamentals change or its potential is exhausted.
2. When there are other better oppourtunities on the market.
3. I need the money (in the case of Diligent I could have used money from other investments but the break cost was too high, I planned a little poorly).
4. When my wife needs the money :-)

For PEB, the price I might start selling is above $6, if the company continues to go from strength to strength and the above factors don't come into play. At that stage they will have a good dividend stream though so even then I will only sell if I want to do something silly like buy a house.

Oh yeah - I probably aren't a big investor (holding 40k PEB with it being my second largest holding), so for me the reward/risks aren't massive. For others holding more it probably will be!


I'm with Blobbles for what its worth (and have said as much in previous posts). At my stage of life, I need to take aggressive positions to help fund the "after work" period. Have a large s/h at an average price of about 24c and if it goes, it goes. But I am confident it will grow rather well. Why not ride it ...they are a great company with a great outlook IMHO.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

From http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/CompanyReports/Cellmid-Limited-/20130311/Cellmid-Limited,-RM-Research


According to most recent update from PEB’s management the company is on track to get CLIA certification by the end of March with commercial launch to follow shortly after.


The US is the largest market opportunity for the Cxbladder and PEB is building a laboratory for the provision of the Cxbladder test to urologists and physicians across the US. The laboratory will be regulated under the Clinical Laboratories Improvement Amendment Act (CLIA) which will enable PEB to offer Cxbladder as a Laboratory Developed Test meaning it would not require FDA approval.Pacific Edge estimates that the annual potential US market for bladder cancer tests is approximately 1.8M tests. PEB uses the following assumptions to estimate the market:
- In the United States 1,000,000 patients per year present to their GP with haematuria;
- 68,800 patients are diagnosed each year with bladder cancer1;
- NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology specify that patients receive 12 monitoring cystoscopies in the five year monitoring period – 4 in the year of diagnosis and 2 in each following year.

All in all, PEB estimates 1,825,000 assays to be required per year. PEB’s new facility in Hershey, Pennsylvania would have a capacity of producing 260K tests per annum. These represents 14% of the overall market.
PEB expects smooth reimbursement process in US. A third party market survey of Medical and Benefits Review Committees for Health Insurers in the US that covered a wide spectrum of private plans showed a very high level of acceptance and concordance with the payers systems.

According to PEB, total supported price for Cxbladder using composite CPT coding for CMS patients is expected to be approximately US$786 per test. Reimbursement by insurers in the US generally occurs at 70% to 80% of the composite CPT code, meaning it will be in the range of US$550 - US$630 per test.

[Balance]

Dmanit, don't want to go to my meeting, having to much fun watching PEB! Capped at 73 now with that large seller and going back down. Got too far ahead of itself again! Bet Mr Big Spender at 79 is hurting, ouch!

Such sweet sorrow for Mr Big Spender at 79 cents when PEB hits $7.90?

[blobbles]

Strongly suggest items 1-4 be cut and pasted into the Investment Strategies and newbies sections.

Ha haa, not sure I should be advising people on investing as a newbie!

I think number 4 is particularly apt though and possibly above number 3 depending on how much in the dog box one currently is :-)

[Balance]

Such sweet sorrow for Mr Big Spender at 79 cents when PEB hits $7.90?

I see that Milford has released $4m from selling down some of their Diligent shares.

This has been the stock which gave Milford its exceptional fund gains in the last 2 years.

Other stocks like Ecoya and Moa had their moments for Milford but have not gone anywhere.

So they will be looking for the next supernova performer. And I suspect they will be thinking hard about PEB that is already rock and rolling ahead.

Try buying $4m worth.

They are going to find it very very hard.

[lastmoa]

Good point Balance. If they're going to enter they need to enter now. Will be watching for large off-market trades and SSH notices before CLIA approval. Milford buying up large here will give a definite boost to the SP as well. Man, is there anything that can stop this puppy now???

I'll be looking for a dip. Already have my desired allocation, but like Diligent was, sometimes you can't help but top up.

[Balance]

I'll be looking for a dip. Already have my desired allocation, but like Diligent was, sometimes you can't help but top up.

Sellers lining up at 75 cents.

No need to hurry.

There will be enough nervous nellies out there who are sitting on 25% to 50% type gains who want to lock in gains - so looking for stock at 71 cents.

[GR8DAY]

Sellers lining up at 75 cents.

No need to hurry.

There will be enough nervous nellies out there who are sitting on 25% to 50% type gains who want to lock in gains - so looking for stock at 71 cents.

I'd be feeling a little nervous myself if I was a holder....time to bank those gains I wud have thought! Although I was one of the first to pik PEB in the comp. I never expected such a stellar run like we've seen. Personally I think it's got ahead of itself once again and I wudnt be at all surprised to see a retraction in the SP very soon....BUT THEN WHAT WUD I KNOW?

[Balance]

I'd be feeling a little nervous myself if I was a holder....time to bank those gains I wud have thought! Although I was one of the first to pik PEB in the comp. I never expected such a stellar run like we've seen. Personally I think it's got ahead of itself once again and I wudnt be at all surprised to see a retraction in the SP very soon....BUT THEN WHAT WUD I KNOW?

Never wrong to take a profit - especially when it's 50% to 100% in a short time.

Just don't look back because I know of one investor who bought 100,000 Diligent shares at 38 cents and sold out at 60 cents. Never got back and laments every so often about the $500,000 odd he left at the table.

Then, there's another one who bought 50,000 at $1 and sold out at $4.00. Put it into PEB at 42 cents.

[GR8DAY]

Never wrong to take a profit - especially when it's 50% to 100% in a short time.

Just don't look back because I know of one investor who bought 100,000 Diligent shares at 38 cents and sold out at 60 cents. Never got back and laments every so often about the $500,000 odd he left at the table.


............and havnt we all done that ah Balance...........just one of the dangers of being a trader. Hard NOT to take the profit at times....and yes even harder to get back in IF they continue higher.............IF ONLY WE ALL HAD CRYSTAL BALLS. ( steel ones wud be kinda handy at times too)

[GR8DAY]

are you talking about mitigating risk with a view that there will be a short term retraction, or are you suggesting the tide has turned for peb long term? That's more what the first sentence in your post suggests. If so could you elaborate a bit on why you think pebs long term prospects are a concern? Cheers.

dont think i said anything about the longterm prospects did i?........as balance suggested there are some large bankable profits there now for many...........id be grabbing them for now myself.............anything wrong with that??

[JohnnyTheHorse]

What are peoples thoughts of CertNDx and the potential impact on Cxbladder?

http://www.predictivebiosci.com/for-healthcare-professionals/CertNDX.cfm

[GR8DAY]

what are peoples thoughts of certndx and the potential impact on cxbladder?

http://www.predictivebiosci.com/for-healthcare-professionals/certndx.cfm

sounds very much like the same technology to me........peb may have been beaten to the gun...?? I guess it was inevitable that there would be competition along the way.....they were never going to have it all to themselves as some might have been hoping/thinking!!

[barney]

"The test is now being used and evaluated by clinicians in New Zealand and Australia to provide a clinical perspective in up to seven different ways with some clinicians using the test to aid their specific practice in more than one application."

They are also working on two other bladder cancer tests, one being a prognostic test, so the technology appears to have multiple applications which will hopefully keep them ahead of the inevitable competition.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I've crunched a few numbers to forecast the 5 year revenue stream based on full uptake of 260,000 tests p.a. in the 5th year (based on David Darlings comments). I wouldn't consider these best case scenario, but they certainly lean towards best case scenario. I've used two basic models to estimate growth each year.

4381

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The major issue is trying to know exactly what uptake is going to be like. Will it start off very slowly and then quickly build at a rapid rate as word spreads and the test becomes accepted? Or has PEB already sorted many contracts, meaning that first year sales will be large. I imagine that the linear model would be incorrect, but I have to admit that I really don't know what the uptake is going to be like. It does worry me that the first year sales may be much smaller than the market is expecting, however part of me also thinks I could be completely wrong and first year sales will meet lofty expectations. It may be worth trying to find a product released several years ago that was in roughly the same scenario as Cxbladder. We could then construct a somewhat more accurate model (still a lot of guess work though!).

[Balance]

It's the same article, sparky! lol. Read pg18, 3rd paragraph. Look it's not the end of the world. This just provides insight into the types of issues that company's that work in the medical space have to work with when taking their products to market. They already have some clinical data that suggests that cxbladder has a role to play in the clinical management of bladder cancer. All they need to do is to build on that, along with the other companies that work in this space, and eventually make their case backed up by their data for the guidelines to be updated to include the use of biomarkers in bladder cancer.

Believe you me, everybody knows about the potential for the use of biomarkers in cancer diagnosis and the monitoring of treatment outcomes. A lot of work has been put into it, and it promises once established and widely adopted, to make major advances.

Good discussion and counter points. This is excellent stuff to surface issues and work them through.

Everyone knows - what is great is that now CxBladder sets the benchmark for effectiveness :

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/225661

Excerpt : "Follow-up tests, 12 months later, on patients who had tested negative as a result of the benchmark cystoscopy inspection but positive by Cxbladder also revealed that three of the patients had tumours, two of which were in an advanced state and likely to have been present for some time. This ability of Cxbladder to identify these individuals provides a strong back up for clinicians.

The paper concludes that the performance of Cxbladder challenges the current clinical practice of the use of cytology as the routine adjunct to cystoscopy and that Cxbladder can be used to prioritise primary care patients for cystoscopy."

AACC and David B will catch up with the times.

[Dentie]

I'm not a medical person and my research is really quite basic; but then I didn't buy PEB to become a urologist. I just saw great potential in the products and people. So all I can really do is sleep with one eye open (so to speak) and be ready to react if something goes bad. The only other option is to sell and i'm certainly not ready to do that yet.

I do not lose sleep over this investment, I've been aware of the risk for yonks, if it didn't keep me awake then it won't now.

So, fingers crossed (fall back investment strategy).

Well, Hancocks, you may not be a medical person - but your depth of research suggests you have the ability, if you had the inclination. Seriously though, I thank you, Johnny and Sparky etc for helping me learn a more correct way to understand the fundamentals a lot more and how to better research a company (I am stronger with TA). I do enjoy the participants of this thread and am learning a lot - thank you.

[Balance]

Looks like major shareholders looking to sell down have disappeared today. Could see another run up, early buying pressure already there at 71...

Fascinating bid/offer action so far - good buying interest at 71c and 72c, and a seller of 60,000 shares at 71c and another with 12,614 to sell at 70c.

A bit of testing going on here.

I sense the size seller is still there and testing the depth of buying interest.

[Balance]

I think so too, probably wait until afternoon to let those bids creep up before offloading. Could hit 79 again before being sold down on profit taking. Daily average volume has been higher than usual, so a new support level could be seen at ~72 cents. Want to see those buyers flock in on realisation of potential to prop the SP up before CLIA announcement!

PEB has had a fantastic run since Feb - 30% gain. Realistically, it is going to have to do work around current levels - 70c to 75c. Just as it did between 40c and 45c in Oct/Dec last year.

As I have written in DIL thread however, take the opportunity of a big seller there to get set if you believe the story after doing your homework.

If you do not believe the story, stay out - no point losing sleep at night.

[Balance]

And there's your serious support at 72 now. Confidence won, happy holder :)

Testing out the big seller.

Who has bigger kahunas?

[Balance]

Going by buyside momentum, I'd say someone will bid up to 75, but buyers are going to be wary as they were beaten down the past 2 days over profit taking. I would like to see more consolidation, not rocketing SP.

And as I wrote someone took out 75. Someone has to fill those big gaps now...

Out comes a few more at 75c.

Watch for a big crossing and then, I would say 80 cents.

Otherwise, it's going to be 70c to 75c for a while?

[blobbles]

Big sell down coming from Harbour Asset Management. Looks like 3 million shares on offer... going cheap!

[tosspot]

Big sell down coming from Harbour Asset Management. Looks like 3 million shares on offer... going cheap!
how would you go about purchasing some of these or do off market transactions only happen between funds and institutions. also do those announcements mean they have sold or are up for sale because there is no buyer listed on the announcement. Sorry if the questions are extremely basic.

[tosspot]

So what does blobbles mean by get some cheap then. the share price wont drop because of this will it.

[Huskeez]

God bless NZ thats all i can say :)

[blobbles]

He's referring to future events which have not occurred yet (i.e. CLIA approval) which should send the stock north fast. This, concordantly, means the stock is cheap right now. Let's hope blobbles is right!

Moosie's bang on, sorry tosspot, didn't mean to confuse things! My opinion is that if they sell at the current price, its a steal due to, what I expect to be, upcoming approval of their lab and then sales of their products.

[blobbles]

So what does blobbles mean by get some cheap then. the share price wont drop because of this will it.

Oh and the share price MAY drop, but it may continue to rise. At the moment this stock is very volatile, so if you are a trader like Moosie, you have to have big balls to decide when is a good time to buy/sell. I believe the selling has already happened so buying the shares they held in particular is probably not possible.

My pick is that, in the short term, before the middle of the year, this stock will soar, potentially up past $1.20. Beyond that it's hard to say as it will depend on their sales and product uptake which we should get an indication of hopefully in July, but a better indication in December. As others have pointed out though this is a risky investment, we just don't know how its going to go so all trading is done at the moment on hoping/praying/educated guesses and by the seat of our pants. If you are comfortable with that then my advice is to buy a little now and if you get more comfortable, more later. But certainly don't put the house on it!

[GR8DAY]

...........buyers fleeing, sellers stacking up!!

[Huskeez]

Scavenged 5.48% on the day , Huskeez the seagull returns to PEB , not 10% like tuesday tho ! SQWUUAK

[Huskeez]

Lol we are on the the same page , I have been ATM , PEB ,PEB missed DIL and XRO as i was waiting patiently in ATM... it was like being tied in a chair with money infront of me slowly being set on fire haha

[blobbles]

Hey moosie, can you give us an indication of the amount of shares you buy and the sort of % profit you make from trading?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Don't think we will see that much retracement so close to an announcement. I'm out again but definitely looking for a lower re-entry. Love the swing trades on this one!

Make sure you get back in within the next 10 days or so. I suspect CLIA approval will be announced before the end of March (I think the chance of them not getting approval is next to zero, PEB is a smart company and I'm sure they will have made sure that they will pass). I'm hoping for a slight pullback in the next week so that I can make one more topup before it flies to $1.

[lastmoa]

BTW, anyone interested in the bio-tech industry should watch QRX over the ditch. Like PEB, a target date has been set for FDA approval/denial in late August(this is their second go at it) for their combination pain-killer Moxduo. Very interesting company with similarities to PEB and thought others might like to watch it.

DISC - Not holding QRX.ASX

Thanks guys, Will look this one up.
I'm not brave enough to trade in/out of my PEB holding this close to an announcement. Been left standing on station platforms before.
:scared:

[Dej]

Yes I am trying to get away from it, but it has so far worked very, very well for me and it is hard not to lock in profits then jump ship until the next uptrend comes. I'm trying to maximise profits until an awesome opportunity comes along (maybe PEB, maybe DIL, maybe SNK!)

And yes, my brokerage loves me :)


Just out of curiousity, when does 'the tax man' start looking into your trading for the 28%?

[Dej]

Dont you have to start paying tax when you are 'purchase(ing) shares with the intention of resale'

I realise we all are doing this - its the aim of the game.

But surely a technical trader falls more in the bracket of 'purchased shares with the intention of resale', compared to a fundie?

[Dej]

Whoops seems my question was answered...

Lets hope they dont make you pay back-dated tax eh? ;)

[Dej]

I was under the assumption that at tax time you need to declare your income + other income (so shares). As I have not taken profits but re-invested them everytime, this would not apply...

But ultimately you will withdraw that money as an income when you want to spend it on other toys...?

[blobbles]

I'm afraid not - broadly you are liable for tax on the profit of the sale of shares if you bought those shares with the intention of selling them for a capital gain.

Which is a bit silly I think. Who, in their right mind, buys shares with then intention of selling them for a capital loss?

This, combined with the lack of comparative capital gains on housing is the reason the NZX is under performing while house prices in NZ go beyond what they should.

[blobbles]

I was under the assumption that at tax time you need to declare your income + other income (so shares). As I have not taken profits but re-invested them everytime, this would not apply...

Nope, the IRD would ping you for the profit on each trade, regardless of what you did with the money. Which is why the tax system in NZ is broken.

[Dej]

You could never sell like Mr Buffet???

Mr Moosie = Mr Buffet :) :p

[Dej]

Nope, the IRD would ping you for the profit on each trade, regardless of what you did with the money. Which is why the tax system in NZ is broken.

Do you think a taxing regime like the one in the States would be better blobbles?

I think we better make money while the suns shining (effectively no capital gains tax)

[Snow Leopard]

Cheers, might start up a thread on this

Might be better to flee the country.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

[blobbles]

Do you think a taxing regime like the one in the States would be better blobbles?

I think we better make money while the suns shining (effectively no capital gains tax)

I think we need to start taxing housing, in some way, to try and take the heat out of it. Plus stopping foreign non resident ownership.

We have an under performing stock market where its hard for start ups to get capital. At the same time we have an over performing house market where its relatively easy for people to get capital. One adds significant growth and entrepreneurs to the economy. One does not. Our tax system turns a blind eye to the one that adds nothing to our economy while penalising the one that adds something to the economy. If we want to grow, as an economy and a country, we need to reverse that.

[tosspot]

moosie when you file your ir3 form do you simply just not mention the capital gains made in the tax year.

[Dej]

Moosie, aren't you glad I bought all this up? :p

[Minerbarejet]

So how is PEB doing after all that. Have reconstituted a thread on tax if any of you are interested - saves moosie starting one. Questions for traders.
Happy Days

[Balance]

Yes, just like Milford on DIL, selling down due to overexposure and taking gains off the table. Have to make up for the huge losses on RAK at some point I guess!

Good on Harbour - they got those shares at the placement and rights issue back in Sep 2011 at 19c. So been a nice 250% plus return for them.

Meanwhile, they are supplying stock to the market for those who are now embracing the story. Imagine if all shareholders just hang on to their stock - there would have been no entry points for those who got in at 25c, 35c, 45c etc!

Harbour certainly has taken a bath on Rakon. Probably why they are being prudent now with PEB.

Market seems happy that it's Harbour selling down - reasonable number of shares bought after SSH announcement at 1.34pm - half of today's turnover. Good sign buyers are seeing this as buying opportunity and not backing off from buying?

[bonne vie]

It is the intent of sale.

Did you intend to sell for a profit, or are there are other valid reasons not for capital gains. EG, did you sell because you were nervous about the economic environment or did you need the money to renovate your house or pay some school fees or another reason other than "I was taking profits".


This is why I like to deal with a broker, by email. I can clearly document my reasons for selling a holding so if the tax man cometh, I can refer to my correspondence that says "I want to take the clan to Fiji with the money"

Hi Sparky, I thought courtesy to let you know I have commented on your above post on the "some questions for traders forum" posts 104 & 107.

[tosspot]

so does anyone know the date of the big decision, surely they must have a honed in time frame by now as opposed to late march.

[Balance]

so does anyone know the date of the big decision, surely they must have a honed in time frame by now as opposed to late march.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/249179/pacific-edge-hits-all-time-high

Have a read of above.

[Balance]

Buyers thin on the ground. Might see some profit taking as people realise the date isn't as close as they thought. 20-30% gains in SP in quick succession are almost always followed by slight corrections/consolidation when no news is reported. Might be the last chance for those not already on to jump onboard the Cha-Cha-Chatanooga Choo Choo!

Institutional buyers now know there's stock available if they want stock .... so they are paying up and getting decent volumes.

Only one big seller out there - just like Diligent when it was in the 50 cents to $1 range.

[lastmoa]

Anyone want to hazard a guess about the percentage chance of PEB getting approval?

I give it a 90% probability, only because there is a possibility that a resubmit could be required as what happened to QRX (ASX). BUt this is just formality and IF this was to happen to PEB it just creates a great buying (topping) up opportunity to get shares from the nervous nellies.
But like Sparky said, they wouldn't build a $10mill+ lab if they weren't pretty confident nor would high-calibre US staff come on board.
Either way I see positives. Don't want to compare this to a Xero just yet, leave that to Diligent to show. 8-)

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks. Anyone want to predict what the SP is going to do? Someone predicted $1.20 by halfyear.

All the holders want to have a little get together if approval is granted and SP does an XRO? Could be PEB themed; doctors, nurses, a smart CEO etc. Could buy up blood test kits the police use for alcohol readings and give a prize to the the highest score!
bring some of that wine and steaks you keep giving the brokers:D

[Balance]

Thanks, turmeric!

Why do I get the feeling you trade this stock, David B?

Your postings go from positive one week to downright alarmist another - buy and talk it up, sell and talk it down?

[Balance]

Nope. Not a trader. I'm a realist, and just trying to inject some rationality into the discussions when things start getting a bit carried away. Nothing wrong with that, and neither should it attract sneering, smearing comments either when I, or anybody else for that matter, do it. The strength of a forum like this only comes when stocks are analysed and discussed freely and robustly. When that happens, everybody benefits.

Great to read that, David B.

We all benefit from your postings and the free exchange of views and news.

Cheers!

[Balance]

There have previously been a few posts where attempts have been made to assess the market penetration and revenues of Cxbladder in the American market. Here is page #28 of the Pacific Edge July 2011 'Capital Raising Offer' which has 'their' figures.

Thx, Hancocks.

Good reference point when CxBladder starts selling in the States.

[barney]

At 10% uptake by US Urologists PEB are into some serious money. Although there will be some hard work ahead for the company, I think getting one urologist in ten to use cxbladder is fairly good odds. Just imagine if they get 20% or more.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I quickly chucked this together to estimate the future intrinsic value based on PEB's projected growth in the US. The IV calculated is for US sales only, so you could easily add a lot more to it if you take into account NZ, Aus and Spain sales, as well as their IP. You will see I have assumed NPAT is 50% of gross margin, if anyone has any figures that may be more accurate then let me know and I will chuck them in (and if you think the LT growth rates should be different).

Obviously the sales aren't certain, so the IV calculations could be very wrong. Please don't let these figures blind you, there is still a lot of risk in this stock. The SP could easily shoot down to 20 cents if things don't go to plan.

Warning: if you have a good sized holding in PEB then make sure you're sitting down before you look at the picture.

4387

[Snow Leopard]

I have also crunched some numbers and made lots of assumptions but assuming:
PEB achieve 2% US market share in the 2013-14 FY;
and more or less double sales until they achieve 24% market share;
and then hold that.

then I would value PEB shares at:
Mar 14: $2.40;
Mar 15: $2.77;
Mar 16: $3.11;

as for present value well...

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

or assuming:
PEB achieve 2% US market share in the 2013-14 FY;
and increase sales by 50% per year until they achieve 10% market share;
and then hold that.

then I would value PEB shares at:
Mar 14: $1.05;
Mar 15: $1.18;
Mar 16: $1.31;

present value would be $0.76 maybe :p

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

PT your projected share price targets are very light... with 10% market share this is conservatively a $5.00+ stock. Post your calculations so we can discuss them.

So 10% market share, no further growth
Income of US$100M equates to only NZ$0.45 a share, so $5.00 a share is blowing in the wind my friend.

There is far too much uncertainty around PEB for any value to have much meaning but even if it is successful it may well be worth a lot less than some people think (or more of course).

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

So 10% market share, no further growth
Income of US$100M equates to only NZ$0.45 a share, so $5.00 a share is blowing in the wind my friend.

There is far too much uncertainty around PEB for any value to have much meaning but even if it is successful it may well be worth a lot less than some people think (or more of course).

best wishes
Paper Tiger

If CxBladder is a success commercially, one would expect the other products in the pipeline to be similar - the numbers will keep changing.

[Minerbarejet]

I hope folks arent going to buy a bunch of Pelican resources on the asx at .010

[barney]

It was interesting to watch the shareprice move up after the announcement fron Harbour Asset Management that they had reduced their holding due to an adjustment in their portfolio weightings resulting from the recent strenght in the PEB shareprice. I think the fact that they mentioned the reason for the sale and that it was only part of their holding gave some confidence to the market that Harbour think PEB are on the right track.

The shareprice has had a great run of late and after being a shareholder for over six years it's good to see that at last some potential in the company is being realised.

[Balance]

It was interesting to watch the shareprice move up after the announcement fron Harbour Asset Management that they had reduced their holding due to an adjustment in their portfolio weightings resulting from the recent strenght in the PEB shareprice. I think the fact that they mentioned the reason for the sale and that it was only part of their holding gave some confidence to the market that Harbour think PEB are on the right track.

The shareprice has had a great run of late and after being a shareholder for over six years it's good to see that at last some potential in the company is being realised.

One senses that other investors (especially fund managers) are taking the opportunity of Harbour selling down to get set in the stock.

PEB is getting more liquid but as we have seen with DIL and XRO, it is still extremely hard for fund managers who need volume to get set in a stock to buy on market - when the stock is running up on good news.

So they need o make a judgement call and get set before a stock start producing the goods, so to speak.

[Huskeez]

Holllllly sh!@t just brought back in about 45 mins ago @.75c hoping to be taken out @ .77 cents , asb emailed me and said we have bought your shares .... nek minit... CLIA .. invesment gods are watching hallejuah

[barney]

I would have thought that there would have been an announement regarding a trading halt. Juct checked trading depth on ASB and it's showing a buyer at 80 and seller at 75. So either there's a glitch or there is in fact a short halt as mentioned prevoiusly.

Good news at any rate.

[Slam dunk]

18 March 2013

Pacific Edge's US laboratory receives CLIA registration for Cxbladder

https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/234251

Anyone trying to pick up any more post announcement??


Yes I picked up some more. Nice to have potential bureaucracy dealt with...one less risk.

[Huskeez]

cool stuck a market order and it went throughWhere you get in? @.76?

[iced]

Once 76 gets taken out we should see the stair climbing start. Wonder why someone is selling off there? Weird...

yea... been following the depth all morning and pretty sure that wasn't there pre announcement

[Huskeez]

Once 76 gets taken out we should see the stair climbing start. Wonder why someone is selling off there? Weird...I was about to say the same thing ... appointment of new director... PEB rallies ... CLIA approval.... sell off lol go figure :) , still in saying that very early days yet

[BigBob]

Yes, will be a 15-20 minute grace period, then all hell will break loose ;)

Has anyone considered that this news may already be priced in....? Certainly recent price action suggest that could be the case....

Maybe the good old "buy the rumour, sell the fact" is in play....

[croesus]

" all hell is not breaking loose " Moosie.. but expecting 80c plus today.

Cheers.

[croesus]

Very little selling past 80c......topped up with 10,000 at 76 c.....

[Minerbarejet]

Very little selling past 80c......topped up with 10,000 at 76 c.....
whats with all the sellers up to 80. what a hard case market this is - great news and everybody sells

[iced]

How do people know with a company/product like this if it is truly priced in or not?

Maybe some people "think" that the announcement was already fully priced in?

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/172597.pdf nice overview

[Minerbarejet]

"Buy the rumour, sell the fact" applies here unfortunately!
asb seems to be stuck at 12.50pm with their market depth - is there a trading halt?

[skid]

Chatanooga Cho cho got sidetracked ATM

[lastmoa]

Chatanooga Cho cho got sidetracked ATM

These buying opportunities will start to dry up, folks. imho.
I loaded with some more today.

[robbo24]

Jeeeeeeeez, the market isn't happy for some reason!

It must be the opposite effect of the Xero Unicorn Fantasy World Effect :t_up:

[Minerbarejet]

should have warned you all I suppose - everytime I buy stock it drops

[Minerbarejet]

No halt, here's the depth currently

4394 whats the sp in rh column for

[Minerbarejet]

thanks for the info

[Balance]

Presentation being held now at First NZ Capital boardroom for media and analysts.

[Balance]

And the presentation is online now.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/234256

Media presentation just finished. Investment bankers and brokers next.

Will give you all feedback after my broker comes back.

[robbo24]

Sparky, why are you selling your 1m shares for $1 each???



100
1
1,000,000https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/images/depth_before.gif

[barney]

Nice one balance. Cheers.

[robbo24]

Good answer - I too look forward to seeing how this stock goes now that it can do the job for the Americans...

[Balance]

Media presentation just finished. Investment bankers and brokers next.

Will give you all feedback after my broker comes back.

Understand presentation was well received.

Most queries revolve around how quickly PEB will achieve US$100m target in US. Will not happen overnight - expect a slow buildup initially as urologists will have to be brought up to speed. But expect pace to pickup once initial sales are made. There will be push from patients preferring CxBladder rather than the invasive cytology tests.

Quiet confidence that all the steps and initial team are in place now to properly and really launch CxBladder into States.

Nothing new really to those of us who have been following the story.

BTW, understand that media was very interested in story and asked some very basic questions. Example - how long have you been selling CxBladder etc. Who are your backers?

[barney]

Understand presentation was well received.

Most queries revolve around how quickly PEB will achieve US$100m target in US. Will not happen overnight - expect a slow buildup initially as urologists will have to be brought up to speed. But expect pace to pickup once initial sales are made. There will be push from patients preferring CxBladder rather than the invasive cytology tests.

Quiet confidence that all the steps are in place now to really launch CxBladder into States.

Nothing new really to those of us who have been following the story.

BTW, understand that media was very interested in story and asked some very basic questions. Example - how long have you been selling CxBladder etc. Who are your backers?

Thanks Balance.

You would have thought that any media people attending would have done at least some basic research prior to attending. Guess there will be some coverage in the press tomorrow.

[barney]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10872027

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I was going to top however the ANZ/DB site is down... again. Pretty useless, this is happening damn near every month.

[Whipmoney]

No halt, here's the depth currently

4394

What platform are you getting this chart from?

There's now a lot of willing sellers / resistance!

[Balance]

Thanks for that Balance! I've highlighted the above in red because as you know, I've been saying that all along, and it's time for a bit of crowing.

And deservedly so!

[Minerbarejet]

Indeed, but the problem is that most of them are only 12, and the extent of their medical knowledge is that the hip bone is connected to the knee bone.
that would be the media ligament I suppose

[Balance]

I wouldn't count too much on those sellers lasting long. It was looking like that a week ago when they suddenly evapourated in pre-trading the next day. Veyr large off-market transfers as well. A nice, big support level is being built here for the next step upwards, might just have to be a little more patient than usual...

70c to 75c - work needs to be done here.

After that, I confidently pick $1.00.

[skid]

So they've got certification and they're down 5.3%--go figure.
Mind you, the market in general has taken a hit with the Cyprus mess.
Just goes to show ,you have got to keep your eye on 2 balls --the co. and Mr. Market these days

[Minerbarejet]

So they've got certification and they're down 5.3%--go figure.
Mind you, the market in general has taken a hit with the Cyprus mess.
Just goes to show ,you have got to keep your eye on 2 balls --the co. and Mr. Market these days
where do you think they would be if they hadnt got certification. Think it is more likely to be Mr Market having a bad day. Probably selling off all over so they can buy PEB tomorrow.:)
Roll on 5 bucks

[Minerbarejet]

See my TA from earlier today. Good times shall come to those who wait!
forgot to tell you -when I buy in the shares usually go down right, so I buy half and pick the rest up later:D

[Minerbarejet]

You sound like my father. Can't see much downside to PEB now, so you may have to change your habits!
I got them already:D

[Minerbarejet]

You sound like my father. Can't see much downside to PEB now, so you may have to change your habits!
I got them already- and I'm not your father although I was in Canada for 10 years
Hmmm - interesting:D

[barney]

I agree that it's been an impressive acheivement to get the lab approved within the time line that the company set. No doubt David Darling and Jackie Walker and team have been putting in some very hard yards. As already mentioned, sometimes these things do'nt always go as planned, especially when dealing with a bureaucracy on the other side of the world. But the company has been in the US doing a lot of groundwork over a long period and it's obvously paying off. I think it's a very good sign for the future.

If they can sign some deals with some of the large urological groups and the armed forces organisations, that could give them access to some reasonably large markets quite quickly.

Then there's also the rest of the world.

[GRIFFIN]

I think i may just sell the house and buy as many of these as i can at this price, look out XRO here we come.

[Whipmoney]

This is just a straight screenshot of the depth from Direct Broking and yes, a large resistance band of sellers from 74 almost right the way through to 80 this evening.

Thanks for clarifying. My ASB one looks pretty average by comparison :S


I wouldn't count too much on those sellers lasting long. It was looking like that a week ago when they suddenly evapourated in pre-trading the next day. Veyr large off-market transfers as well. A nice, big support level is being built here for the next step upwards, might just have to be a little more patient than usual...

I'm still a newbie at this so just out of curiousity say I backed this company based on the fundamentals (both qualitative and quantitative) yet the charts were showing a heavy number of sellings (say 4:1) pushing the share-price down / providing resistance..

Hypothetically and in terms of an entry point, would you buy in anyway if you thought the price was fair and it was a great long-term prospect.. or would you see if the prices ebbs away even further first to extract more value?

[GR8DAY]

............some good coverage time given to PEB this morning on the Breakfast programme. $100m revenue was touched on a couple of times, lets see if Mr Market likes it today........hmmmmmmmmmmmm?? HOLDER/ACCUMULATOR

[skid]

I think i may just sell the house and buy as many of these as i can at this price, look out XRO here we come.
We are glad you are doing well[if your holding]but hope your kidding about the leveraging--you would be breaking every rule in the book--best of luck but keep the house
The whole point of the earlier post[down 5.3%]was the unpredictability of the market.
Alot of great co. have ended up blood on the floor,when the market turned ugly--you can still be optimistic without betting the house.

[Huskeez]

First buyer in @ .76c :)

[Whipmoney]

First buyer in @ .76c :)

Why would you when you can pay 0.74?

[Huskeez]

lol i dont know ask the guy who has the buy order in @ .76

[Balance]

lol i dont know ask the guy who has the buy order in @ .76

Getting priority just in case the seller at 74c pulls out last minute?

[barney]

Thanks for clarifying. My ASB one looks pretty average by comparison :S



I'm still a newbie at this so just out of curiousity say I backed this company based on the fundamentals (both qualitative and quantitative) yet the charts were showing a heavy number of sellings (say 4:1) pushing the share-price down / providing resistance..

Hypothetically and in terms of an entry point, would you buy in anyway if you thought the price was fair and it was a great long-term prospect.. or would you see if the prices ebbs away even further first to extract more value?

I guess everybody has a different way of looking at when to buy or sell, but generally if I think a company is worth buying into for the long term, I'll buy about half of what I want and then if the price comes back I'll buy some more. This way I can average down if the price falls. It's basic but seems to work in lieu of a crystal ball.

[Huskeez]

Getting priority just in case the seller at 74c pulls out last minute?Haha dunno but its gotta be good for the SP

[croesus]

There are only 1500 at 72c and 900 at 73c.... pleased I am set.

[croesus]

900 at 74c to sell

56000 at 76 to buy

[Huskeez]

Sellers are backing off , only 800k as opposed to 1.2mil at close yesterday

[croesus]

Now small buy at 77c in the scheme of things not much on the sell to $1,,, there yours eh Balance !

[croesus]

Over 130,000 at 75c sold.... up 3c currently 75c line all gone 76c latest price.

[Balance]

Now small buy at 77c in the scheme of things not much on the sell to $1,,, there yours eh Balance !

Can't resist.

Relax, guys - yesterday's action showed institutions buying in and they will keep buying.

Just wait now for the news to filter properly to the States and for a few urologists to buy a few shares for their retirement. Then, the real action starts!

[CJ]

Relax, guys - yesterday's action showed institutions buying in and they will keep buying.If Insto's were buying, who the hell was selling. Or more to the point, if Insto's are buying in, why the hell were people selling.

[Whipmoney]

If Insto's were buying, who the hell was selling. Or more to the point, if Insto's are buying in, why the hell were people selling.

The blocks are big but not huge so maybe affluent individuals... lol urologists?

[Balance]

If Insto's were buying, who the hell was selling. Or more to the point, if Insto's are buying in, why the hell were people selling.

Harbour is selling and why not? They are sitting on a 300% gain and it is only prudent to reweigh their portfolio.

After all, they do need to show their investors they can make money as well as lose it big time like the horrendous losses they are taking on Rakon.

Meanwhile, treat it as an opportunity to get some cheap shares if you believe in the story - as we have seen with Diligent on the way up. I remember posters bitching about a big seller at $1.00! Then $2.40 etc etc

[Balance]

If Insto's were buying, who the hell was selling. Or more to the point, if Insto's are buying in, why the hell were people selling.

Read the bitching going here at Carroll selling Diligent at $5.30-$5.40 before the stock popped above $6.30 a week later.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5408-Diligent-Boardbooks-IPO/page43

People sell for all kinds of reasons and that's the beauty of the market.

Imagine if Harbour is not selling, sp will be 90 cents and there is no real base at this stage to support 90 cents. Institutions buying from Harbour will support the base at 75 cents to take it above $1 for the next run upwards. Provided PEB delivers of course!

[CJ]

not bitching - I am in for the long term.

I can see why a fund that has exceeded its mandate would be selling, but everyone else, why, even you you are sitting on a big gain. The news is good, future is bright, so it is not the time to lock in the gains.

[bwucey]

lol - and there was I thinking that I was the only one that happened too - the maddening thing is that when I don't buy the price goes up!! Oh, well I keep trying.

[Minerbarejet]

What are the forums opinions on dividends with this stock or has this been dealt with earlier. Realise this is a long way off Atm but is there any indication as to policy or intent.

[Minerbarejet]

If they have extra cash they want to return to shareholders do it via a share buyback or best of all, a pro-rata share cancellation. How does that pro rata cancellation work. Is it ever done and under what circumstances. Any examples I could search for?

[GRIFFIN]

hi sparky and skid, no just kidding about selling the house besides it belongs to a working farm of which i have just finished feeding out in the pouring rain,HOW GOOD IS THAT.I have picked up PEB shares along the way and at this stage feel very satisfied with its progress and just have a feeling its really only in its infancy and one of our more exciting stocks going forward.

[Minerbarejet]

Abano healthcare did it a few years back when they were flush from cash from the sale of their audiology??? division.

So if XYZ Inc are returning $40m in cash, and the company is worth $200m, then they cancel/acquire one in every five shares held by each shareholder, meaning the company's earnings per share becomes a fifth more powerful, and investors receive the cash.

Done a lot in the USA.

In NZ, we tend to see a lot of share buybacks done on market rather than pro-rata cancellations/acquisitions.

It is tax efficient, particularly from the sale of an asset or in extraordinary circumstances, whereas special dividends or larger dividends incur tax.
Thank you for that clear and concise answer, Sparky.:)

[CJ]

I have an article where David was saying PEL would hope to pay a divvy after a year or two of US operations. PEDUSA could fund expansion through the usual company debt structures. PEL are not interested in courting T&A, I don't see them seeing that as the path to success they have worked so hard for.Given they probably have years worth of tax losses, a dividend would be very tax inefficient. A cancellation should be done first I would have thought.

[CJ]

Hancocks - tax losses can not be distributed to shareholders. Therefore it needs to have that amount of taxable income before it pays any company tax. I assume they have enough losses to cover a few years profits.

To get imputation credits, you have to pay company tax. Therefore, if they paid a dividend before they pay tax, it will be an unimputed dividend which is not tax efficient as the shareholder will have to pay tax.

However, a company can return capital tax free to shareholders (upto the amount of 'avaliable subscribed capital' which is similar to the old paid in capital).

As a shareholder, if a company was going to pay out $10m to shareholders, I would prefer to receive it as capital or with imputation credits,rather than having to pay tax.

Not sure what the second part of your post is about. If you want something explained in detail, just ask. I could give you a 5 page opinion on that but it will cost ya. ;)

[Minerbarejet]

Being a new PEB investor could I please ask the forum why someone would have 1,000,000 shares
for sale at 1.00 which is way and above the market. Is someone just showing off (egos again) or what. Dont suppose anyone would like to have a wager they wont be there if and when PEB gets into the 90s. I know its their business but it seems a bit weird to declare such a large holding so early. Is this a bit of market psychology at work?

[Whipmoney]

Being a new PEB investor could I please ask the forum why someone would have 1,000,000 shares
for sale at 1.00 which is way and above the market. Is someone just showing off (egos again) or what. Dont suppose anyone would like to have a wager they wont be there if and when PEB gets into the 90s. I know its their business but it seems a bit weird to declare such a large holding so early. Is this a bit of market psychology at work?

Maybe just to add volume/liquidity to the sell side in order to help suppress the price so they could buy more.

[Xerof]

Hancocks - tax losses can not be distributed to shareholders. Therefore it needs to have that amount of taxable income before it pays any company tax. I assume they have enough losses to cover a few years profits.

To get imputation credits, you have to pay company tax. Therefore, if they paid a dividend before they pay tax, it will be an unimputed dividend which is not tax efficient as the shareholder will have to pay tax.

However, a company can return capital tax free to shareholders (upto the amount of 'avaliable subscribed capital' which is similar to the old paid in capital).

As a shareholder, if a company was going to pay out $10m to shareholders, I would prefer to receive it as capital or with imputation credits,rather than having to pay tax.

Not sure what the second part of your post is about. If you want something explained in detail, just ask. I could give you a 5 page opinion on that but it will cost ya. ;)

CJ, you might like to briefly share your expertise on the subject of the shareholder continuity threshold wrt c/f tax losses to complete the picture. I doubt they would be a T/O target until these are consumed by profits?

confession: I'm a 'bush accountant' armed only with enough self taught info to be dangerous!

[CJ]

CJ, you might like to briefly share your expertise on the subject of the shareholder continuity threshold wrt c/f tax losses to complete the picture. I doubt they would be a T/O target until these are consumed by profits?Losses require 49%+ shareholder continuity to maintain losses. Small shareholders (less than 10%) are treated as a notional single person so you only have to be concerned with major shareholders exiting.

Re takeover and forfeiture of losses - who knows, if you want something bad enough, do you really care about $x of losses. You set your takeover price based on future cashflows, it just means you cant factor in the tax shelter provided by the losses. However the Buyer might think their global marketing position will neable them to unlock more value than the existing shareholders do with the losses (ie. can offer a price high enough for you to sell.

As an example, I understand that TelstraClear would have forfeited some losses when Vodafone took them over - Vodafone obviously seeing some integration value exceeding the value of the losses to Telstra. Alternatively, you could see an offer for just 50%, which may retain the losses till utilised (would need to check my maths on this one???).

[Minerbarejet]

Maybe just to add volume/liquidity to the sell side in order to help suppress the price so they could buy more.
If that was the case: when they have their quota at the lower price then the sell order will miraculously disappear. How much of that going on I wonder?

[Whipmoney]

If that was the case: when they have their quota at the lower price then the sell order will miraculously disappear. How much of that going on I wonder?

Whilst I was just speculating above I imagine that may occur.

Alternatively they keep their sell order out there and hope that some big insto hits it (as Sparky suggested) so while they would prefer to buy in cheap they're also contempaneously happy to sell out if the price is right. Win/Win much?

[Minerbarejet]

When you think about it I suppose its a kind of backstop. With less than a million shares on offer to .80 then a sudden big time buyer or institution or two buying in lower down could send it up there. Out of my league and possibly "depth". :)

[robbo24]

12.5% rise in share price and slightly higher liquidity will see PEB added to the NZX50.

Ok well come tomorrow everyone put down buy orders of 82 cents, who's with me???

[Whipmoney]

Maybe, someones got their first bid in at 80 tho..

[croesus]

10 m will be one associated company selling to another.. probably a buy/put transaction.. getting tidied up before 31 March.

Lets see if Mr 80c is there at the bell.

Looks like she is getting ready for another run..

chin chin

[croesus]

Cheers Sparky.... so do you think there would be many retail buyers ..or one or two bigger buyers.

Seems a good discount.. I would have taken some at that price.. did you have 65c offered .. at the time ?

[Whipmoney]

Doesn't matter if the bid is at 74 cents, 80 cents or $1.20, if it isn't enough to break the first ask level it's going to go through at the lower price...

Yeah I get that but assuming the asks don't move then the first market trade will go through today 74 and hold/support the price.

In other words the bids haven't started peeling back due to the off-market trade at 65.

[Whipmoney]

Yes, but it is rather a small trade in the grand scheme of things! :cool:

Yeah but sure beats the price signals given off if the market opened at 65!

[Balance]

I understand that funds have gobbled up 75% plus of the placement, and individual investors the rest.

Don't know if i have got any yet.

Classy way of doing it - selling down all in one go at a realistic market price to clear the stock, rather than overhanging the market like a bad smell until it is cleared.

Question now is who bought.

[CJ]

Looks like it was the part of the Masfen holding - SSH a bit confusing given there is an old acquisition (rights issue) and this sale combined.

[CJ]

Classy way of doing it - selling down all in one go at a realistic market price to clear the stock, rather than overhanging the market like a bad smell until it is cleared.Just an overhang from those that did manage to buy at a ~15% discount. THat will hold down the price for a while as they sell those at a nice gain.

[GR8DAY]

Just an overhang from those that did manage to buy at a ~15% discount. THat will hold down the price for a while as they sell those at a nice gain.

...........and what makes you think they will be selling them now CJ???

[GR8DAY]

.........GRAND OPPORTUNITY TO TOP UP SAYS GR8DAY!........this will NOT last for long.

[CJ]

...........and what makes you think they will be selling them now CJ???Sparky missed out so assume it is the big instos that got them. They have performance reporting for the period to 31 March. They will take the profits in the hope of topping the table and therefore getting more funds under management next year as people chase winners. More FUM means more fees and more bonuses.

The full 10m may not be traded but I expect high turnover for the rest of the week and into next week.

If they had let Sparky double down and buy another mil, no doubt he would hold as he thinks long term, unlike fund managers who are rewarded short term.

[Balance]

I sure hope so Sparks! The interest at this price does indicate major support and a continuation of uptrend if people stopped profit taking! It's like DIL all over again, being capped around 74 due to those damn parcels being parted out by a big holder!

Out of one hand into others - that's how the market works (fortunately).

Still trading in 70c to 75c consolidation range.

I maintain my view and that PEB will 'pop' when it breaks out of this range.

[croesus]

Well, 500,000 odd have sold after the placement, agree with Balance...once it gets over 76c.. there will be a panic to not miss the boat, or the train. currently about 250,000 available then it hits 77c ( 73..57000 ....74c - 63000 75c ..50,000 76c... 73000 ... )

[robbo24]

PEB has a big 65 cent target on it's back right now.

Let's not forget it dropped down and was trading at 54 cents just over a month or two ago, and what great buying that was! 65 cents isn't all that bad in terms of the bigger picture of this company.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Just topped up at 70 cents. I've been good at picking the bottom lately, so don't worry guys, it's all up from here :p.