PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Huskeez]

Perhaps I do have a clue Huskeez???

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~%20adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html

(Ratios are current for January 2014).

Whoops...

Exactly my point...

[JMKC]

Do school me then. Those are the sector averages I ws talking about.

No, you said the whole US market vs the tech sector. And the "internet sector" on the page you quote is on a P/S multiple of 6. So...

[couta1]

Peb held up well today finishing at $1.68 compared to most of the market

[geo]

SLI turning also but on low volume

Who care's

[couta1]

Who care's
6hrs behind the clock there Geo,just woken up ?

[geo]

6hrs behind the clock there Geo,just woken up ?

I do in joy my senior naps freshens me up for your posts.:t_up:

[alistair85]

When can we expect the next announcement from PEB?

[clip]

When you least expect it. Holding

[Minerbarejet]

When can we expect the next announcement from PEB?The only one we can expect with any certainty will be Full Year at the end of May and the Half Year in November, the rest could be anywhere, anytime, suddenly when you least expect it and out of the blue. Great! Signs of a company playing its cards very close to its chest. No cats out of the bag here.

[Goldstein]

When can we expect the next announcement from PEB?

Companies need to take care that they release appropriate news to the market. This allows Moosie's trading strategies to run their course without any undue interference.

The FY report came out in June last year with a preamble out in late May. Expect the same this year. Anything else will be for milestones acheived, significant contracts won, profit warnings, or anything else which may distort the market in favour of those that hold priveledged information.

[Minerbarejet]

Companies need to take care that they release appropriate news to the market. This allows Moosie's trading strategies to run their course without any undue interference.

The FY report came out in June last year with a preamble out in late May. Expect the same this year. Anything else will be for milestones acheived, significant contracts won, profit warnings, or anything else which may distort the market in favour of those that hold priveledged information.
Or even a takeover offer of 6.70 US

[Schrodinger]

winner69???

Maybe sales????!!

[winner69]

Maybe sales????!!

At suggestion of those oissed of readers of this thread did drop a note to PEB asking when next news is due as many are impatient

No response yet ...probably far too busy for such menial matters

[Dentie]

that should only be traders that are anxious as they need announcement to move the stock around.
Long term and medium term investors should be sitting back watching and smiling.

aye aye to that!

[Minerbarejet]

that should only be traders that are anxious as they need announcement to move the stock around.
Long term and medium term investors should be sitting back watching and smiling.
Cant wait for the first dividend.:)

[tunsbro]

Its actually not that clear. A lot of the tech companies have revenues to back their inflated share prices. PEB has talk and promises. I prefer revenue and paying customers over promises and huff and puff. Go to your bank and ask them what they like.

Yes, but when that happens you'll have to pay a lot more than $1.70. That's why speculative growth stocks return massive capital, you have to take the punt. If you want a sure thing, try a big monopoly ... like Chorus.;)

[couta1]

Yes, but when that happens you'll have to pay a lot more than $1.70. That's why speculative growth stocks return massive capital, you have to take the punt. If you want a sure thing, try a big monopoly ... like Chorus.;)
Great tui add tunsbro re chorus PEB a safer bet:cool:

[klid]

When can we expect the next announcement from PEB?
I was just reading this:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639

And quote:
"Swann welcomed Obama-care, but the legislative changes mean Pacific Edge has to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, though he is hopeful it will be through early next year."

[etrader]

Hey klid remember that article was at the end last year so he refers it early this year the changes to meet the requirement.
The longer the price sits at these levels the more I'm buying

[Bobcat.]

Fundamental preoccupation will prevent you chaps seeing the technical signals to buy or sell. I sold out 10 days ago when the RSI broke 90% (which is very high). It's now just under 70%, with support confirmed at 160c but with a head and shoulder pattern producing resistance just south of 170c.

DJIA and S&P500 charting also of course come into play.

One sound strategy is to buy in at 160/161c but with a stop loss at 157/158c (putting very little capital at risk for the potential benefit of already being on the wave to ride when there's an announcement).

An alternative strategy is to wait until after an Equity market sell off (and mild panic) takes PEB's sp under 160c, through its stop losses, and down to test a psychological support level around 150c.

A third strategy is to continue to hold (if in fact you are) watching a bit nervously any slide, hoping that it's not long before it (eventually) turns upward again.

Anyone care to propose another strategy?

BC

[klid]

Hey klid remember that article was at the end last year so he refers it early this year the changes to meet the requirement.
The longer the price sits at these levels the more I'm buying

Sorry yes should have mentioned, so it's early this year, which could be any day I guess, but I don't recall this event being mentioned when people were speculating about what the next announcement might be.
I tried trading this, bought about 1.42 and then sold and re-bought in 1.sixties but will just hold it instead of playing around now.. don't want to miss any boats!

[MAC]

Here's a much better strategy;

Don’t sell at all, the DOW is already 4.2% into probably what’s a routine 5-10% correction and with that sort of advice some would probably just end up putting their non tax paying status at risk through attempting to be a little too cute following short term squiggly lines on a chart, …., it’s just not worth it.

The risks are higher not holding than holding a well managed company on the cusp of progressively delivering ten years of research and development by some very smart people.

[couta1]

Here's a much better strategy;

Don’t sell at all, the DOW is already 4.2% into probably what’s a routine 5-10% correction and with that sort of advice some would probably just end up putting their non tax paying status at risk through attempting to be a little too cute following short term squiggly lines on a chart, …., it’s just not worth it.

The risks are higher not holding than holding a well managed company on the cusp of progressively delivering ten years of research and development by some very smart people.
If your intent was a long term hold at time of purchase and you sell then buy back more shares at a cheaper price putting all the money back in I don't see any tax issue in the remote chance you were checked otherwise you would in effect paying double tax when you sell them again at any price higher in the future, if you sell and buy back cheaper but buy the same number of shares back banking the increase gained then you have realized the profit and that would have a tax status once again depends on your intent at time of purchase but I think you can see the difference in the above scenarios,agree with your general sentiment regarding this particular stock though,risky to play around with expect news at any time.

[Minerbarejet]

If you intent was to hold long term then that is what you should do. Hold long term, no ifs ands buts maybes or any other shenanigans. If you sell, then buy back, you are trading and liable for tax. If you want to stuff about with this share perhaps you should get a large holding and put it in a separate account, designate it as a long term hold and buy a few others to muck about with in a trading account. You might be surprised how quickly the trading account members find their way into the long term account.:)
Cheers

[benjitara]

I'm just wondering about people looking at Technical analysis of a stock like PEB. It seems to me that technical analysis is only derived from activity surrounding the fundamentals of a stock anyway. At the moment the perceived strength of the support of this stock is driven by its potential for sales/new agreements (which is a fundamental characteristic) . The most volatile movements in share price increases and decreases are those driven primarily by announcements concerning the fundamentals regarding the business in question. In other words there seems to me to be a certain relationship between fundamental investors looking to time the market using technical analysis but very little relationship between technical analysis using fundamentals to drive their bids because of the reactionary position technicals have in the market. ? While this may seem long-winded it seems a valid point in my humble opinion.

[couta1]

If you intent was to hold long term then that is what you should do. Hold long term, no ifs ands buts maybes or any other shenanigans. If you sell, then buy back, you are trading and liable for tax. If you want to stuff about with this share perhaps you should get a large holding and put it in a separate account, designate it as a long term hold and buy a few others to muck about with in a trading account. You might be surprised how quickly the trading account members find their way into the long term account.:)
Cheers Agree with a lot of what you are saying here but recapitilsation of profit by buying back more PEB or any other share for that matter would not have a tax liability for the reason of eventually paying tax twice or more times on the same money if you get my drift

[winner69]

Agree with a lot of what you are saying here but recapitilsation of profit by buying back more PEB or any other share for that matter would not have a tax liability for the reason of eventually paying tax twice or more times on the same money if you get my drift

Couta - IF you are a trader EACH trade incurs a tax liability.

So a 1000 PEB bought at 100 and sold at 200 is a profit of 1000 (taxable income IF a trader - TRADE #1

Using the 2000 proceeds to buy say another 2000 at 100 and then sell at 200 is a profit of 2000 and IF trader taxable income - TRADE #2

2trades - profit and taxable income 3000

No double taxation here if you get my drift

But if not a trader all this doesn't matter .... Just 'recapitalize' to your hearts content

[tobo]

I am not so sure about this "recapitalising"
If you sell on dips and buy on peaks (incrementally increasing your holding because you reinvesting the full $amount), you are, each time you sell, making a gain over your purchase price.
If done well, you could double your holding and yet the sp is the same has the original smaller purchase.
Surely after you have done it a couple of times, you then have to be able to justify each time why you have sold so quickly, considering the preceding purchase had been for the purpose of a long term hold.
It's ok to sell because you need the money, or because you changed your opinion on the company, or you sell some because you are overweight, but those arguments demonstrate themselves to be wrong if you subsequently buy again, don't they?
I can see that you can sell because you need the money, then decide not to buy that car after all, and reinvest, but how often can you do that?

[couta1]

I am not so sure about this "recapitalising"
If you sell on dips and buy on peaks (incrementally increasing your holding because you reinvesting the full $amount), you are, each time you sell, making a gain over your purchase price.
If done well, you could double your holding and yet the sp is the same has the original smaller purchase.
Surely after you have done it a couple of times, you then have to be able to justify each time why you have sold so quickly, considering the preceding purchase had been for the purpose of a long term hold.
It's ok to sell because you need the money, or because you changed your opinion on the company, or you sell some because you are overweight, but those arguments demonstrate themselves to be wrong if you subsequently buy again, don't they?
I can see that you can sell because you need the money, then decide not to buy that car after all, and reinvest, but how often can you do that? I think were probably getting into this unanswerable murky Grey area again,the main test applied by IRD is Are you in the BUSINESS of share trading or not so making lots of transactions for various reasons is not being in the business of share trading so Winner is correct in what he says above re recapitalization, each must make their own mind up,of course if labour get in and bring in a capital gains tax then then the game will change in that everyone will pay tax on any profit obtained upon sale the only difference being then that those in the BUSINESS of share trading will be able to claim expenses and the rest wont,in some ways I favor a CGT as long as its set at a lower rate than the top tax rate as it would clarify most of the Grey areas,in some countries with CGT there is even a different tax rate for shares sold when held for less than a year(Higher) than those sold after holding for longer than a year(lower) Time to get back to PEB but of course these things affect all shares so still very relevant

[MAC]

And then, with the re-rating continuing and the positive outlook for the year ahead, PEB may just continue onward and upward over the next few days anyway.

It’s hard to catch a ship sailing away when you’re a rat in the water.

[Goldstein]

And then, with the re-rating continuing and the positive outlook for the year ahead, PEB may just continue onward and upward over the next few days anyway.

It’s hard to catch a ship sailing away when you’re a rat in the water.

That's a fantastic quote MAC. Is it yours? Nice one.

[Minerbarejet]

If some one buys 120000 we will be right back where we were.

[Harvey Specter]

I think were probably getting into this unanswerable murky Grey area again,the main test applied by IRD is Are you in the BUSINESS I think you are on to something. Teh discussion has been focusing on Trading, taht being the intention at the time of purchase. It sounds like people have a profit making scheme to buyin the troughs and sell in the peaks - a profit making scheme is also taxable, as is being in the business of dealing in shares.

Back to PEB. NO need to panic people, were in it for the long term and in the long term, it will be selling $100m within 5 years ;)

[Balance]

I think you are on to something. Teh discussion has been focusing on Trading, taht being the intention at the time of purchase. It sounds like people have a profit making scheme to buyin the troughs and sell in the peaks - a profit making scheme is also taxable, as is being in the business of dealing in shares.

Back to PEB. NO need to panic people, were in it for the long term and in the long term, it will be selling $100m within 5 years ;)

Just traders and nervous investors taking trades or some money off the table.
Stock has attracted more than its fair share of traders and speculators.

[Whipmoney]

Or even a takeover offer of 6.70 US

Stock Bubble indicator #3: delusional outlook exhibited on forums.

[Dentie]

Stock Bubble indicator #3: delusional outlook exhibited on forums.


I'm cringing at the small retail investors who have bids in for blocks of 220, 780 and 80 at $11.80 + ...... lambs to the slaughter :(

Hi Whip, I remember your above quote on the XRO thread ... and I made a similar quote on the same thread. We were both proved to be "cringing" at the time ... but I note XRO has continued onto such lofty heights and my view has still not changed. They seemed to have burst through the bubble somewhat.

For that reason, I don't see PEB anywhere near bubble status. I'll be happy for them to get to $5 a share!!

[geo]

Couldn't find Darlings presentation on the Life Sciences Report, re: Biotech Showcase
at San Francisco but you can bet he talked up Peb a storm.

Last time I looked sp down 12c a golden opportunity to top up.

[MAC]

Last year at the AGM David darling mentioned, if I recall correctly, that the independent user programme outcomes for cxbladder would be published in the Journal of Urology in early 2014.

This IMHO will represent significant exposure and validation for pacific edge diagnostics, the journal of urology has a subscription base of 20,000 professionals, many of whom will be directly involved with test prescription and insurance assessments.

Does anyone recall if it was the January or the February edition we should look out for ?

[Bobcat.]

Down 6% today.

Keep talking it up, boyz. The only problem is that the US Equities market has only just started its correction and will not begin trending up again for some time...taking biotechs down with it (especially those yet to turn a profit, let alone yet to register any signficant sales!).

Buy time is next month IMO (announcements notwithstanding). Now that it's been tested so soon, I'm expecting a break through the psychological support level of 150c later this week. I could be wrong of course, but I'm trading to it.

BC

[MAC]

Bobcat, you may believe it or not, but most PEB holders probably don’t give a rats about short term moves in share price, some probably rarely even look.

If you wish to read or actively engage and contribute in more insightful analysis and discussion on this forum you are most welcome.

The fundamentals of a company don’t change just because your digger can’t decide which direction it should go, and the fundamentals for PEB appear to be most certainly onward and upward.

[Whipmoney]

Hi Whip, I remember your above quote on the XRO thread ... and I made a similar quote on the same thread. We were both proved to be "cringing" at the time ... but I note XRO has continued onto such lofty heights and my view has still not changed. They seemed to have burst through the bubble somewhat.

For that reason, I don't see PEB anywhere near bubble status. I'll be happy for them to get to $5 a share!!

Well to be perfectly honest I still view Xero as a bubble, and given the similar characteristics it has to the 2000's tech bubble, time may in fact prove me right. What it does have in its favour however is a relatively tightly held stock base with some heavy backers (thiel etc) staying in for the long haul. It also could emerge as the absolute winner in its field in which case the price could hold.

Back to PEB, the suggested buyout price of $6 is an absolute joke. That would put the market cap above that of the likes of GHDX who currently have US$250m+ in sales, multiple products, and demonstrated profitability even after ~$40m in R&D expenditure, which means it is spending more in R&D than PEB is currently pulling in in sales. From my understanding it also has a larger addressable market than the 1.895m annual bladder cancer diagnostics tests presently required in the US market..

So yeah comments like these suggest a few people are blindly jumping on the gravy train which is one of the early signs that a stock could *potentially* be overvalued.

[Minerbarejet]

Stock Bubble indicator #3: delusional outlook exhibited on forums.
All postings from minerbarejet require liberal applications of salt - not to be rubbed in wounds but to aid balance in having one leg longer than the other.


Not that Balance
:)

[clip]

Down 6% today.

Keep talking it up, boyz. The only problem is that the US Equities market has only just started its correction and will not begin trending up again for some time...taking biotechs down with it (especially those yet to turn a profit, let alone yet to register any signficant sales!).
BC

Tell that to PRAN.NASDAQ/PBT.ASX. (though what happens tomorrow remains to be seen!)
5399

[MAC]

Perhaps Hancock’s or Barney can help me out,

Aside from the AGM, the only more recent reference I have is to the user programme study results being due to be published by way of a presentation at the Urological Society of Australia and New Zealand (USANZ) Annual Scientific Meeting in March 2014.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/240937

[benjitara]

Traders of this stock will be having a hard time trying to make sense of the share price fluctuations at the moment. Investors in this stock will appreciate the share price fluctuations are due to the presence of traders who are having a hard time recognising the share price fluctuations!

[Minerbarejet]

Traders of this stock will be having a hard time trying to make sense of the share price fluctuations at the moment. Investors in this stock will appreciate the share price fluctuations are due to the presence of traders who are having a hard time recognising the share price fluctuations!

A viscous circle.
No doubt some will come to a sticky end
Thank you for the few extras this morning whoever sold
:)

[Lost in space]

A viscous circle.
No doubt some will come to a sticky end
Thank you for the few extras this morning whoever sold
:)


Yes I concur - a hearty thank you to those who sole buckets to me...

[zymwh]

I just had a quick check..Dow johns is green.. nasdaq is nearly flat... ftse 100 is only 1.7% down mate ...I understsnd you have sold but don't say something untrue

[BigBob]

I just had a quick check..Dow johns is green.. nasdaq is nearly flat... ftse 100 is only 1.7% down mate ...I understsnd you have sold but don't say something untrue

I am sure the the moose can speak for himself, but it was not actually untrue when he posted it... US has only just ticked up to about even in the last few hours and the moose posted last night.....

[Balance]

Am I missing something with the FTSE chart you posted?

How do they get a 222 point drop when open was 6,663.74 and close is 6,550.66?

Market watch has the FTSE down 1.7% not 3%+

Might wanna check those numbers Moosie.

I think Moosie needs to consult Chairman Handley's little snake book?

:D

[skid]

Nasdaq seems to have fared the worst. Tomorrow will probably bring a bit more certainty as to whether the fear is still around--seems to have leveled off for now.

[skid]

IMO you would be best placed to be in this stock this week than out. The likelihood of an announcement is high.

Has there been some indication of that?

[Balance]

Has there been some indication of that?

End of January in sight - companies work towards end of month deadlines?

[Balance]

Have you reconciled those numbers yet mate?

Straight from the horses mouth if not:

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices.html?index=UKX

FTSE down 1.7% not 3%+

Moosie needs to consult Chairman Handley Book first.

Need to see which fork of the Snakk's tongue is talking?

[MAC]

Hi MAC, I’m only aware of the presentation to the ASANZ meeting in March 2014 regarding the ‘User Program’ results with the DHB’s. I would imagine after that forum the findings will then be submitted to the Journal of Urology which is the official journal of the AUA (American Urological Association) for publication.

If the results were available early enough, they could be presented to the Journal prior to the ASANZ meeting, so that the publication could be released a few weeks after the meeting.

The Journal of Urology should publish about 10 weeks after submission, there is no reason the article would not be accepted for publication.

Timeframe information from their website is copied below.

Your research, published faster
Articles now available online and citable within one week of acceptance!

The Journal of Urology® aims to offer the fastest possible speed of publication, without compromising quality. This is a promise the editorial and publishing teams work hard to keep.

FIRST DECISION: 2-3 weeks from submission to first decision
REVIEW SPEED: 8 weeks from submission to acceptance
PRODUCTION SPEED: 1 week from acceptance to citable online version

Thanks Hancock's

[Minerbarejet]

Whats going on ? Asb not functioning? No sales. Exchange down?

[blockhead]

Going ok on Direct ($2.65)

[Toasty]

Whats going on ? Asb not functioning? No sales. Exchange down?

DB is up and running.

[Lost in space]

Whats going on ? Asb not functioning? No sales. Exchange down?

Yip, ASB site down. PEB 20 minute delayed price is up 3 to $1.63

[Minerbarejet]

Yip, ASB site down. PEB 20 minute delayed price is up 3 to $1.63
Thanks to all:)

[enzed staffy]

Apparently their IT is giving it "top priority"
Problem at their end - not time to resolution yet - yay

[Blue Horseshoe]

Yip, ASB site down. PEB 20 minute delayed price is up 3 to $1.63

Might be over $1.70 if ASB get their S**t together.

[croesus]

My SPARK, is down for NZ, but loading pre prices for AU stocks, any one else with SPARK having the same issue.

Cheers

[Dentie]

Apparently their IT is giving it "top priority"
Problem at their end - not time to resolution yet - yay

man, you wouldn't want this on an "announcement" day

[Minerbarejet]

man, you wouldn't want this on an "announcement" day
You are right there Dentie, up to 1.68. Look what happens when the traders cant get at it through ASB


Now we have unexpected error and webpage unavailable.:(

[skid]

Looks like most are happy with the fact that Stock market didnt continue to slide or has taken a ''breather''

I do however think that it shows that any share can be influenced by outside market forces--good to note

[MAC]

The ides of March are looking to be quite interesting for Pacific Edge;

There is the anticipated NZ50 listing on 12th March, and we should expect an announcement on 16th March as David Darling presents the DHB user group programme study results to the regional USANZ urology conference in Brisbane.

And, would it not potentially make a desirable focal point in time for a CEO to boldly be able to stand up and tell the audience that they are about to launch a new product and that they had just signed up a major health organisation.

Guidance for the launch of Cxbladder(triage) is for Q2 2014. Guidance for the sign up of Medicare is for ‘hopefully’ early 2014.

Six weeks away, interesting indeed.

http://www.usanz2014.com/uploads/67763/ufiles/2014%20final%20sponex.pdf

[Minerbarejet]

Indeed. One year on from my initial purchase of PEB. Seemed fortuitous at the time and remains so.

[etrader]

CDY aka cellmid confirmed today they sold all their holding in PEB. They supply biomarker a to PEB on a licence agreement.

[Radler]

A nice story in todays ODT - also includes a bit about some other well performing companies that you might have heard of.
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/289663/souths-biotech-sector-thriving

[Harvey Specter]

I still think that it will take another 12 months before PEB are recording any real sales.They are forecasting $100m in 5 years. Are you doubting this or just expecting it to be a very steep curve later in the 5 year period.

[MAC]

Companies with this sort of technological edge are a little rare in NZ and are unfamiliar to many of us, these sorts of growth rates though are not uncommon abroad in a greater context of companies which develop new technologies with new value propositions.

It is a complex company and sector, it was some time ago now but it took me a good six months to scramble together enough information and analysis before I became satisfied and comfortable enough to invest long term.

Saleability risk also goes both ways too, if PEB get ahead of the sales curve there becomes a compounding growth effect. Earlier cashflow’s allow for the earlier market release of the pipeline products, some of which are ready and waiting now.

Given the humble and understated business culture Pacific Edge seem to have I would not rule this possibility out.

[barney]

I think PEB see cxbladder being used by urologists in the US as an aid against being sued.

From the last half year report:
The drivers of adoption in the USA are different to those
in New Zealand and Australia. Whilst still driven to provide
the best clinical outcome for patients, clinicians in
the USA work in a litigious operating environment that
encourages the adoption of new technology where that
technology provides an accurate non-invasive clinical
perspective for both patients and clinicians. Cxbladder
has shown over the last six months that it meets the
clinical hurdles faced by urologists and also offers the
clinician a means of increasing their probability of
successful cancer detection and thereby reducing the
potential risk of any litigation that could arise with a
poor clinical evaluation and tumour detection process.

[silverblizzard888]

"Cxbladder boosting confidence in bladder cancer detection"

Thats a nice little confirmation on the quality of the product I guess.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/246470

Wonder what this announcement will do for the share price, its not a ton, but at least it may quench the thirst of those asking for an announcement.

[NZSilver]

“I have been using Cxbladder extensively since June 2011. Over that time period, Cxbladder has proven to be the most accurate, non-invasive test for monitoring patients with either hematuria or known bladder cancer.” says Dr. Joe DiTrolio, a Board Certified Urologist, Professor of Surgery, Section of Urology/Department of Surgery Rutgers New Jersey Medical School.

[winner69]

Wow finally something to excite the market. About time

[whatsup]

Wow finally something to excite the market. About time

I wonder how long before the Market recognises this release and buys into it, unless the instos are already donkey deep ?

[croesus]

Agree Sparky, its a teaser... consider it like mating Horses at a stud.

Probably get the money shot shortly.. this week I reckon.. end of month is when deals are signed.

Cheers

[Xerof]

Yes, an infomercial, but it alludes to the 'wall of dissonance' being eroded IMO

[zs_cecil]

Joe Di Trolio is one of the highest regarded East Coast USA urologists. Getting an endorsement from him is a bit like Colin Meads describing current All Blacks as some of the best ever to wear black. Indeed, a high complement.

But in itself, the announcement is a bit nothing as a statement to the market, as there is nothing commercial about it. Perhaps its the prelude to something bigger on the way if they are gaining the blessing of top urologists?

Hm....the announcement gives a bit strange feeling to me because it is just simply a piece of PR news instead of something important to be published as an announcement.
I wonder what the real purpose behind of publishing this advertising article as an announcement bythe CEO of PEB USA.

The article does not give us any proof of how the confidence has been being boosted. I guess they need to publish more results from their user programmes in order to validate their claim in the title of the article. :confused::confused::confused:

[Whipmoney]

Joe Di Trolio is one of the highest regarded East Coast USA urologists. Getting an endorsement from him is a bit like Colin Meads describing current All Blacks as some of the best ever to wear black. Indeed, a high complement.

But in itself, the announcement is a bit nothing as a statement to the market, as there is nothing commercial about it. Perhaps its the prelude to something bigger on the way if they are gaining the blessing of top urologists?

Basically just filler to keep the market interested..

I don't see it relates to the NZX 10.1.1 continous disclosure rules.

[Dentie]

Here's some good news for anyone PEB holders still holding CDY...

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/52294/cellmid-signs-distribution-deal-for-hair-regrowth-treatments-for-china-52294.html

[MAC]

One of the challenges that any new value proposition faces is leaping recognition hurdles.

In a sector that must for our wellbeing be very conservative this sort of endorsement for Pacific Edge diagnostics is very important for securing the confidence of health professionals.

It’s another good and positive step on a five year road.

[NZSilver]

Practitioner/Specialist endorsement - hugely important - as in some ways these are the customers of PEB. - they are the people that decide the diagnostic workup and if a cxbladder test is included in the workup and carried out on a patient. Obviously in the states there will be SOP's / guidelines created by hospitals for doctors to follow (mainly to preven litigation) - so CXBladder need to be in these as well - but these are created by management who have medical degrees. So the fact this endorsement is coming from uroligists is extremely pleasing as the biggest barrier is for a product to be recognised, talked about and then actually used on patients.

[Lost in space]

Famous last words. Let's check in at the end of this week to see if we break through $1.50.

My guess is that we could just as easily crack through $1.70, if not higher, should PEB make another announcement this week.

That is the downside of treating PEB as a trading stock when it is primed to take advantage of explosive sales growth.



Still, if you get to buy your shares cheaply this week, I'd be happy for you.

What can one say really? Danger of trading without a first class crystal ball...

[zs_cecil]

Hope that the endorsement by the credited urologist at least indicates the level of acceptance of the product by the urologist overall in USA.
I would like to hear more about the patient side of story as well. :)

[Harvey Specter]

Basically just filler to keep the market interested..

I don't see it relates to the NZX 10.1.1 continous disclosure rules.Filler but they had to get it out so they can use in their marketing. I wonder if a more detailed version will appear in a journal.

[Minerbarejet]

Dr Joe Ditrolio seems to have given it a good workout if he has been using cxbladder since june 2011.
Good things take time.:)

[whatsup]

Thanks to members on here giving me some sound advice/tips, bought in just in time again before todays announcement.

disc - holding on for another upswing

Mousie , I cannot believe that u r not a holder from way back, bearing the P R that has been around about PEB !!

[steve06]

"I have been using Cxbladder extensively since June 2011. Over that time period, Cxbladder has proven to be the most accurate, non-invasive test for monitoring patients with either hematuria or known bladder cancer." says Dr. Joe DiTrolio, a Board Certified Urologist, Professor of Surgery, Section of Urology/Department of Surgery Rutgers New Jersey Medical School.

He is a Diplomat of the American Board of Urology.

"The Cxbladder test is a wonderful new diagnostic tool in our evaluation process for patients with new onset hematuria and for patients who are being followed with known bladder cancer"

says Dr. Guy Bernstein, a Board Certified Urologist at Urology Health Specialists in Bryn Mawr, PA.

Dr. Bernstein is a member of the following societies:

American Urological Association
Fellow of American College of Surgeons
Philadelphia Urological Society
Montgomery County Medical Society
Pennsylvania Medical Society
American Association of Clinical Urologists
American Society for Reproductive Medicine

Endorsement from these fellows is in itself really exciting news, an item on NZX today, endorsement in other publications to come surely.

Great to be getting endorsements from these distinguished urologists, great announcement today :)

[winner69]

Mousie , I cannot believe that u r not a holder from way back, bearing the P R that has been around about PEB !!

Why hold long term when you have a crystal ball like moosies .... he knows when announcements are coming

[Harvey Specter]

IMO you would be best placed to be in this stock this week than out. The likelihood of an announcement is high.


Has there been some indication of that?


Anything you would like to share with us BE? Not going to turn out like the DIL inside report is it? Sure you don't want to double down?


All ya need is some good contacts; no crystal ball necessary
mmm. BE has some explaining to do.

[Harvey Specter]

I do not PM Brighton Early my friend Harvey. Contacts inside and outside ST.That just makes it worse. How many people had insider knowledge or were they all just lucky guesses.

[tunsbro]

Announcement looks like it's info aimed at other urologists as a PR.
They're probably just flicking it to shareholders, as well, as a bit of fodder to maintain confidence. Which it has for me.

[Harvey Specter]

Moosie - don't worry. Not suing. Enjoy your drinks tonight. Sorry I can't make it.

Sparky - agree but that suggests a contract announcement. This was a PR puff piece to support the current price. Less predicable but internally probably planned more in advance.

[MAC]

you are missing the point.

It is much safer for urologyst and any specailist to use what the written clinical guidelines state but step outside the quoted guidelines and you open yourself up for being sued.
For that reason PEB will be slow to get traction

Pacific Edge's aim is that cxbladder will both become integral to and complement those very clinical guidelines as well as offering a value proposition such that the augmented guidelines will require a third less cost for each work up.

In addition, in some instances, a partial displacement of invasive tests should lower litigation risks for urologists as all invasive medical procedures carry a risk of malpractice.

[Minerbarejet]

Announcement looks like it's info aimed at other urologists as a PR.
They're probably just flicking it to shareholders, as well, as a bit of fodder to maintain confidence. Which it has for me.
Maintaining confidence to ensure the required price level to enter the nzx50 perhaps with room for error. The price had already corrected itself from mondays little jaunt to 1.50. So maybe not. Ok, a softener for something bigger coming soon ?
Kindest regards
Minerbarejet
Pebble

[Minerbarejet]

[/QUOTE]
Therefore this wonderful idea from some investors that PEB will achieve 10's of thousands of test by year end is a myth.[/QUOTE]
My understanding is that this came from Mr Swann - not from a collective of investors.

[winner69]

Aren't you all glad I kept on about them needing an announcement, any sort of announcement to add a bit of excitement.

Interesting if not strange comment from minor saying this could be about maintaining confidence to ensure the required price level to enter the nzx50 perhaps with room for error. Others seem to think any announcement are good idea now. I thought they were a mature sensible steady as she goes outfit that didn't need to jack up the hype.

Glad I took the suggested walk around the block to get a life ......but did send off a note to PEB saying they needed to say something.

Off course I'll say they finally listened ......but what a load of old proverbial that is winner.

[winner69]

yep thats pretty much some's up this announcment and unforetunately it has the same ring to it as announcements from RAK had a few years ago.

Low blow snapiti ......YELLOW card for you mate ...the crowd is booing you already and calling for your blood

[Minerbarejet]

Glad I took the suggested walk around the block to get a life ......but did send off a note to PEB saying they needed to say something.
Probably reading this thread for entertainment anyway - during short smoko breaks in processing in overtime
:)

[geo]

Therefore this wonderful idea from some investors that PEB will achieve 10's of thousands of test by year end is a myth.[/QUOTE]
My understanding is that this came from Mr Swann - not from a collective of investors.[/QUOTE]

Absolutely correct.

[Minerbarejet]

We await developments.
Cheers

[Harvey Specter]

Wondrr how many DHB's they signed up this time. BTW, what is the NZ equivalent of Medicare/Medicaid in assuring PEB has a very prominent lead in their chosen sector? Must have missed this from an earlier discussion (or its too early in the morning...)we have free healthcare so it is the DHB's I would have though. Southern Cross the only medical insurer of scale so maybe them to? But probably not needed.

[skid]

Overseas markets looking edgy--It will be interesting to see whether things like yesterdays announcement or outside markets have the greatest effect on SP

[skid]

That may be true-but so far the markets are not liking the fed taking off some of the ''life support'' and things are starting to hot up in some emerging countries.
Im not saying this will necessarily affect PEB,but its a good thing to monitor to help with decisions.
Some things fare better than others in rocky markets ,but nothing is immune. (if things get worse)

I remember some years back-the first thing I would look at was the particular shares I owned--Then things turned and I would find myself looking to see what the overseas markets did before anything else as that became the more important factor.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25422442

[winner69]

OCR unchanged
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2014/5615070.html
No comment on recent troubles that have affected equity markets.
RBNA expects to raise OCR soon (my guess March).

Wimpish from the RBNZ

Never mind - it just one big game

[Harvey Specter]

Wimpish from the RBNZRight decision. Turkey and SA raised theirs to shore up their currency. We dont need any help with that. Inflation still within the range and any increase will be caused in part, by the chch rebuild. restrictions for home lending are still new so they need to be given time to flow through. Election year also brings uncertainty.

And most importantly of all, all of my debt is floating and I have no intention of locking in.

[Harvey Specter]

Why I dont fix: http://www.hivenews.co.nz/articles/345-chart-of-the-day-inaccurate-economists

5409

[777]

Thread drift.

[winner69]

Why I dont fix: http://www.hivenews.co.nz/articles/345-chart-of-the-day-inaccurate-economists

5409

He a good guy that Rodney

Once worked at the RB and sort of knows how they work

But wasn't Rodney saying that this time the economic forecasting gurus might have got it 'roughly right'

And reading between the lines the sensible thing to do would have been to raise rates thios morning?

[tunsbro]

The PR is out and about:

http://www.sacbee.com/2014/01/29/6110873/pacific-edges-cxbladder-boosting.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pacific-edges-cxbladder-boosting-confidence-133000797.html

[MAC]

Yes, back to Pacific Edge and the sufferers of cancer;

From the 2008 cancer statistics, which PEB reference, the HY18 goal of US$100M revenues at a price point of US$550 represents (181,818/1,825,600) = 10% of the annual assay’s performed in the US, or 10% of the market share to you and I.

Thus, the HY18 goal essentially represents an aim of achieving a humble 10% market share within the next five years.

The 2013 cancer statistics are now available and it is apparent that since 2008 the market (of poor unfortunates) itself has expanded during that five years by 5.5%. At that growth rate perhaps it will expand by yet another 5.5% by the time HY18 rolls around.

Thus, in this context the PEB goal of 10% market share just seems to represent roughly equivalency with the probable increase in overall sector growth.

As time goes by and the more information we receive about the roll out of cxbladder the more it seems to me that the five year plan might actually be a little understated. But, as we know that seems to be the Pacific Edge way.

Add to this the new proposition of tests Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), and Cxbladder(Health), and it starts to seem possible that PEB may actually do a little better than 10% market share.

REFERENCES:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3322/CA.2007.0010/full
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/143330.pdf
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.3322/caac.21166/full?campaign=dartwol%257C256988400

[In4a$]

Encouraging info MAC. Thanks for posting

[skid]

Monetary policy, interest rates, exchange rates... surely there is a better thread to be discussing these subjects.

This conversation started as a consideration of just how much (if any) outside markets affect PEB (your shares) Its good information to know---so far the PR machine is still cranking out news but SP is down a bit so it may be outside markets--my point is ,its good to stay on top of both PEB and outside markets,if for no other reason than to buy on the dips (but it could save your bacon)

[benjitara]

PEB is one of very few companies on the NZX with intangible asset clout. Their IP IS their product. But sales are where we are at now. It's interesting to think that this company has morphed into something much different than what they set out to be. Commercialising their own products was never on the radar so this is the hardest thing about keeping faith in PEB. Can they become the best second hand car dealers in town?

[MAC]

It has been a big leap from lab based R&D, a will to establish IP and to just look for royalties, to retaining all that commercial potential in-house, capitalising and establishing a going business concern.

Quite an inspiration for other NZ companies to not just roll over and sell their IP to others I think.

There was an interesting interview article with DD where he talks about how that opportunity came about.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/185138.pdf

[Dentie]

Well - big time sellers (of many small lots) flummox me! SP has been happily moving up on no news whatsoever and then when we get what I think is a good announcement (encouraging at the very least) these big time sellers drive the price lower. Makes me think there are many holders out there (not just in PEB either) that are sitting over their computers sweating every little movement, reading some of the negative sounding posts on S/T and getting themselves into a shaking frenzy and it all gets too much for them.... I can just picture the look .....:eek2::scared::ohmy::cursing::crying::angry:. Finally they just can't stand it any more and the finger shaking over the "SELL" button drops onto the left clicking part of the mouse (sounds like moose if you are from bonny Scotland)!!.

All this time the investors have been hovering over the "BUY" button ..............

[skid]

Steady on Dentie--still higher than last week--your getting a bit spoiled if you think its always going to rise no matter what:)

[Balance]

Short termers and macro environment watchers fretting over US market and growth in China. PEB has held up amazingly well because everyone knows it's a winner!

Tomorrow is when the real selling starts, if there is no positive announcement.

End of month.

[Dentie]

Steady on Dentie--still higher than last week--your getting a bit spoiled if you think its always going to rise no matter what:)

Being a long termer, the short term "up and back" lurching means nothing. As plenty of others before me have stated...the story hasn't changed with PEB - it has been all positive stuff from what I believe to be a great firm. If the sales aren't there as expected, or they get sued out of existence by the yanks for something or their product\s get overtaken etc etc , then that's a different story. I haven't seen anything as yet that would make me want to hit the "sell" button. If I had more available dosh, I would be opening my purse now!!

[Xerof]

Tomorrow is when the real selling starts, if there is no positive announcement.

End of month.

I would have thought the traders got out yesterday, on the basis that the announcement was probably it for this month. (I did, trading lot only, 171 :mellow:)

Don't see any pressing reason for long termers to be worried if no further announcement tomorrow, but we'll see I guess. Not much liquidity left on buyside after yesterday, so could be interesting

[Bobcat.]

PEB's Australian sister company, Cellmid (CDY.ASX) doing well off this week's announcement of a deal in China to sell, not cxBladder but, hair tonic! Up another 10% today. Has anyone else bought into this recently?

Edit: make that 13%. I know they have a royalty arrangement with PEB - I must look into understanding it better.

[Bobcat.]

They seem to spike on such announcements then settle back to 3 cents. I'd say hold for a bit then sell when that buy pressure slackens if you're doing the charts BC.

Not this time, Moosie - today it's broken through two months of resistance at 3.3c and 3.4c. I'm expecting it to now track upward similar to the way it did last October. 4c and beyond - here we come.

BC

[klid]

I missed that one (Cellmid). Was prepared to pay 3c but not 3.1c :P missed out though!
Look at PBT, going nuts.

[Minerbarejet]

What a week, big drop off to 1.50, great news re urology approval, a recovery, a short dip again and a strong finish on a Friday. Roll on Monday:)

[etrader]

Bobcat I've put similar funds into PEB and CDY based on the royalty PEB pays over the long term for sales of 2 percent from my understanding. PEB have already issues just over a million shares as a milestone payment which have been sold around 80c a share last year.


I would think their portfolio of IP biomarkers might be used on further PEB developments but can't confirm that.

PEB is still my favourite pic from the two but the penny dreadful will hit 6c before PEB hits 3.75

[skid]

What a week, big drop off to 1.50, great news re urology approval, a recovery, a short dip again and a strong finish on a Friday. Roll on Monday:)

1.50?(I think you mean 1.60)
I found that aside from the announcement it has roughly followed the fluctuations in the US stock market.
The US market had a few scarey days,then had a great Thurs(recouped losses) and then slid again on Fri--It will be interesting to see if this affects Mondays trading here.

If thats the case,it means that whatever the finish to the NZ week,its not the full story.(the NZ share market made slight gains for the week, but closed just before a slide in Asian markets which would most likely had some effect)

A very rough and unpolished theory but it will be interesting to see how Monday fares.

[klid]

1.50?(I think you mean 1.60)

Intraday trading on the 27th it went to 1.50 for a small time, opened and stayed 1.55 most of the day, but closed at 1.60.
After the US scare at the reaction to the FED tapering I think.

[stoploss]

Intraday trading on the 27th it went to 1.50 for a small time, opened and stayed 1.55 most of the day, but closed at 1.60.
After the US scare at the reaction to the FED tapering I think.
Definately traded to 1.50 I got some on the way back up.






Due Date
Status


PEB.NZX (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=PEB&qqe=NZSE)
27/01/2014
BUY
5,000
151
7,550.00
29.50
7,579.50
7,579.50 NZD
30/01/2014
SETTLED


PEB.NZX (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=PEB&qqe=NZSE)
27/01/2014
BUY
6,000
153
9,180.00
29.50
9,209.50
9,209.50 NZD
30/01/2014
SETTLED


PEB.NZX (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=PEB&qqe=NZSE)
27/01/2014
BUY
5,000
154.59
7,729.50
29.50
7,759.00

[warthog]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/opinion/we-are-giving-ourselves-cancer.html

Put another tick in the non-invasive diagnostics column.

[skid]

Also interesting
http://www.3news.co.nz/Ordinary-cells-turned-into-stem-cells/tabid/1160/articleID/330347/Default.aspx

[skid]

Definately traded to 1.50 I got some on the way back up.








Due Date
Status


PEB.NZX (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=PEB&qqe=NZSE)
27/01/2014
BUY
5,000
151
7,550.00
29.50
7,579.50
7,579.50 NZD
30/01/2014
SETTLED


PEB.NZX (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=PEB&qqe=NZSE)
27/01/2014
BUY
6,000
153
9,180.00
29.50
9,209.50
9,209.50 NZD
30/01/2014
SETTLED


PEB.NZX (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=PEB&qqe=NZSE)
27/01/2014
BUY
5,000
154.59
7,729.50
29.50
7,759.00






stand corrected--i was looking at the DB chart and it didnt appear to touch down to 1.50--must have been good timing for a few

[etrader]

Where would they get the patented IP from without cellmid ?

[waddis]

What if PEB chooses to cease using the CDY bio marker? No more royalties for CDY. Something to think seriously about if you have invested in CDY.

CDY have several other partnerships other than just PEB and also their own pipeline of research and trials

[MAC]

What if PEB chooses to cease using the CDY bio marker? No more royalties for CDY. Something to think seriously about if you have invested in CDY.

A test for Cellmid may come when cxbladder(triage) is launched in just a few month’s time. It would be interesting to know if different markers have been applied or alternatively if the proprietary software just gets a tweak.

On one hand we could ask why would Pacific Edge stick with the MDK marker and continue to pay royalties when they have a whole research lab full of smart people to develop an equivalent.

But, after pursuing so many clinical trials and user group programme studies for cxbladder(detect) thus far with the MDK marker, too much change now may not be the best thing from a sales, perception and market confidence perspective.

http://www.cxbladder.com/assets/assets/Cxb-Brochure-00-MKT-120-US-REVA.pdf

[karen1]

What if PEB chooses to cease using the CDY bio marker? No more royalties for CDY. Something to think seriously about if you have invested in CDY.

Not sure CDY is heavily reliant on PEB for it's future, they have several strings to their bow: http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CDY&E=ASX&N=779488
From their website, which is worth browsing, http://www.cellmid.com.au/content_common/pg-key-patents.seo

[Minerbarejet]

What if PEB chooses to cease using the CDY bio marker? No more royalties for CDY. Something to think seriously about if you have invested in CDY.Have a few CDY based on the assumption that PEB would provide a royalty stream once it got going and up to projected speed at 100 million USD in 5 years
At 2% of course that is only 2 million spread over CDY's 735 million odd shares so we are not exactly in the miracle department. However CDY has many other irons in the fire including hair restorer that looks like it might go in china. Get a few other items up and running and things should look up. Probably a share consolidation wouldn't go amiss eventually
Think you have to remember that these companies and many others including our little PEB are continuously developing new markers and other research is ongoing. Who knows where it will all end but a cure for cancer would surely be the best possible result. And who knows what the next research development from Otago will come up with that PEB could develop.

[MAC]

Not sure CDY is heavily reliant on PEB for it's future, they have several strings to their bow: http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CDY&E=ASX&N=779488
From their website, which is worth browsing, http://www.cellmid.com.au/content_common/pg-key-patents.seo

Perhaps the converse is true also Karen, with Pacific Edge projecting 81% gross margins for cxbladder, MDK royalties, as an operating expense, will barely make a blip in their income statement.

[karen1]

Mac, barely a blip, sounds good to me. I find PEB a totally fascinating business, and have much confidence in the team.

[Whipmoney]

Perhaps the converse is true also Karen, with Pacific Edge projecting 81% gross margins for cxbladder, MDK royalties, as an operating expense, will barely make a blip in their income statement.

Yet could be lucky to break even in the next 5-7 years due to ongoing R&D and sales/marketing expenses.

[MAC]

Yet could be lucky to break even in the next 5-7 years due to ongoing R&D and sales/marketing expenses.

I’m sorry to have to say that you may well be disappointed in your analysis Whipmoney, PEB told us at the time of the AGM that they could break even this financial year [1]. IMHO it’s more likely to be HY15 (November 2014).

My estimate is that this would require circa 21,000 US tests to cover costs and to turn a profit, but then as we know, PEB have already also told us that they expect to be “processing several tens of thousands of tests” within 2014 [2].

And well yes, most informed shareholders would actually see R&D as a positive within a company like PEB full of extraordinary research people and with a history of performing such R&D at one tenth the cost of what it may otherwise cost abroad [3].

The more well managed R&D, the more products entering the commercialisation pipeline, the more long term cashflows generated, fantastic.

References:

1. http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-100m-forecast (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/269976/pacific-edge-100m-forecast)
2. http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-edge-business (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business)
3. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11178639 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639)

[whatsup]

ALL TIME HIGH $1.76 whatsup ?

[Lost in space]

ALL TIME HIGH $1.76 whatsup ?

More buyers than sellers...... Expectations are raised for anticipated announcements/NZX50 over next 8 weeks.

[LegendOfRiot]

Maybe a combination of pent up demand and anticipation of upcoming positive announcements.

[Harvey Specter]

The entry in to the NZX50 is known with only positive announcements possible before then limits downside risk. Who would sell, but I am sure plenty are willing to buy.

[warthog]

While it is all very well for PEB holders to be optimistic and generally bullish about their prospects aren't some showing signs of going all Jordan Belfort on us?

We all DON'T KNOW that PEB will be saying anything specific anytime soon other than what is expected in terms of reporting and some price movements are just a cluster of buying and have little or no significance.

If Brighton_Early is so confident that PEB will be "well over $2 by March 21" the hog is happy to enter into an arrangement whereby Brighton_Early can take advantage of this prediction, being seemingly unlimited potential upside above $2 :)

[Harvey Specter]

We all DON'T KNOW that PEB will be saying anything specific anytime soon other than what is expected in terms of reporting and some price movements are just a cluster of buying and have little or no significance.We expect a NZX50 announcement so that is probably enough. Any other announcement, if any, will most likely be positive which is the icing on the cake.

[warthog]

Private message me warthog... I'll take you up on that!

If you had done your research you would know we are expecting a number of contracts to be announced over the next six weeks. Here are a few given you are too lazy to look:

- Kaiser, Intermountain and other HMOs
- DHBs.

Judging by the price action one of these can't be too far away! :)

So how many PEB shares would you like to purchase from the hog for $2 at which date in March? :)

[stoploss]

Private message me warthog... I'll take you up on that!

If you had done your research you would know we are expecting a number of contracts to be announced over the next six weeks. Here are a few given you are too lazy to look:

- Kaiser, Intermountain and other HMOs
- DHBs.

Judging by the price action one of these can't be too far away! :)

Price action might suggest they pumped it up to get a decent bid on the 500K that just went through at 170 …….

[warthog]

Private message me and we can price a call option.

A call option priced >$0 suggests that you're not confident that PEB will rise above $2 during March.

Is the hog right or is the hog right?

[geo]

There seems to be a greater focus on the shareprice going up or down by a few cents, mainly by traders who post on ST which is OK that's what they do.

Being an investor my focus is on the company and how it's future and mine are tracking.

What I see so far is the business is building a solid Economic Moat around itself, by being able to keep competitors at bay, DD quote that they are at least 3 years ahead of the competitors that's good.

They have all patents locked securely away I think in the US it's for 7 years before they are reviewed and renewed that's good. They have on going products in the pipeline some coming online this year that's good. Locking customers unfortunate people that have to be All we need now is for management to convert all the sales coming through into profit and the free cash flow passed on to investors.

[warthog]

I am confident and on this basis the price and size of the call option will reflect this. Private message me if you're serious. If you're not, no big deal just don't waste my time!

Done, you have a PM.

[Intel]

Done, you have a PM.


Black Scholes pricing a Strike $2, 31/3/14 American Call option on 1 PEB share at 5.38c per option. Not a bad price IMHO

[benjitara]

There seems to be a greater focus on the shareprice going up or down by a few cents, mainly by traders who post on ST which is OK that's what they do.

Being an investor my focus is on the company and how it's future and mine are tracking.

What I see so far is the business is building a solid Economic Moat around itself, by being able to keep competitors at bay, DD quote that they are at least 3 years ahead of the competitors that's good.

They have all patents locked securely away I think in the US it's for 7 years before they are reviewed and renewed that's good. They have on going products in the pipeline some coming online this year that's good. Locking customers unfortunate people that have to be All we need now is for management to convert all the sales coming through into profit and the free cash flow passed on to investors.

Well said. Investors like us need to see past the fragile state of mind of some of these traders and attempt to locate the actual value of PEB.

[Dentie]

Well, have just (indirectly) become a client of this wonderful company and have experienced the first part of the process.

Brent Pownall was very knowledgeable and very good at explaining the ins and outs of the process. Courier showed up at my door when Brent said it would and courier bag is already on its way back to them. The actual physical process is well documented and I managed to get things done in line with what's required.

Seems to be cheaper for Kiwi clients than our US counterparts.

Very impressed so far. Now we wait for the outcome ....

[warthog]

Tempted to post up warthog's private conversation to show he was only wasting time! If anyone is keen to sell options as per the above please private message me. My broker can liaise with your broker in order to get it done. Maximum position of $100k premium, so just over 1,850,000 shares.

Interesting. Brighton_Early isn't so confident that PEB will be "well over" $2 (per postings in this thread above) that s/he is willing to guarantee a $2 level sometime end March.

Who would? Exactly the point, and possibly the point that Brighton_Early missed in her/his rush.

This is the hog's point. Lots of posting here from existing holders continually trying to talk it up.

Noteworthy: somebody wants to take a discussion offline and then post-discussion threatens to make it public. Speaks to temperament, trust, and ego.

Note:
- Anyone can claim others are wasting their time. It's all about one's perspective
- All talk about $100k positions but without option pricing is completely meaningless

[Balance]

Interesting. Brighton_Early isn't so confident that PEB will be "well over" $2 (per postings in this thread above) that s/he is willing to guarantee a $2 level sometime end March.

Who would? Exactly the point, and possibly the point that Brighton_Early missed in her/his rush.

This is the hog's point. Lots of posting here from existing holders continually trying to talk it up.

Noteworthy: somebody wants to take a discussion offline and then post-discussion threatens to make it public. Speaks to temperament, trust, and ego.

Note:
- Anyone can claim others are wasting their time. It's all about one's perspective
- All talk about $100k positions but without option pricing is completely meaningless

Seems like BE is willing to pay you a premium of $100,000 to purchase call options from you?

That's risking $100k to back his assertion that PEB's sp will be above $2.00.

1,850,000 shares @ strike price of $2.00 vs current share price of $1.71 = 29c downside protection before you have to front up with shares at $2.00?

Seems a fair deal to me since you are so negative on PEB?

If PEB remain below $2.00 (your view), you keep $100k.

[warthog]

Seems like BE is willing to pay you a premium of $100,000 to purchase call options from you?

That's risking $100k to back his assertion that PEB's sp will be above $2.00.

1,850,000 shares @ strike price of $2.00 vs current share price of $1.71 = 29c downside protection before you have to front up with shares at $2.00?

Seems a fair deal to me since you are so negative on PEB?

If PEB remain below $2.00 (your view), you keep $100k.

Why do you think the hog is negative on PEB?

You know what they say about assumption don't you Balance.

[Minerbarejet]

Well, have just (indirectly) become a client of this wonderful company and have experienced the first part of the process.

Brent Pownall was very knowledgeable and very good at explaining the ins and outs of the process. Courier showed up at my door when Brent said it would and courier bag is already on its way back to them. The actual physical process is well documented and I managed to get things done in line with what's required.

Seems to be cheaper for Kiwi clients than our US counterparts.

Very impressed so far. Now we wait for the outcome ....
On behalf of many of the other sharetrader members we hope that it is for peace of mind rather than as a result of haematuria.
If it is haematuria you are very brave to post it here and your sincerity is appreciated.

[Dentie]

On behalf of many of the other sharetrader members we hope that it is for peace of mind rather than as a result of haematuria.
If it is haematuria you are very brave to post it here and your sincerity is appreciated.

Sorry - don't want to mislead anyone, not me personally thankfully ... member of the wider family.

[In4a$]

Sorry - don't want to mislead anyone, not me personally thankfully ... member of the wider family.
Be good to see how this goes, hopefully good news for your family, so far the response is good news for shareholders.

[Balance]

Why do you think the hog is negative on PEB?

You know what they say about assumption don't you Balance.

Negative as in you do ot see PEB's sp at $2.00 and above.

Your call, Hog - or are you actually a chicken?

:D

[warthog]

Let's go back to what Balance wrote. Always good to revert to fact when distortion/spin are at play.


since you are so negative on PEB?

Not being positive about PEB reaching $2 by whenever does not equate to being "so negative".

You should know better, Balance.

[In4a$]

Wish they would take their argument elsewhere. Turning this thread into another SNK

[winner69]

BE and warthog going to do a bit of betting between themselves

Go and watch the end of the Superbowl and now it seemscontest between warthog and Balance

Things move fast when one is having fun

[warthog]

I must admit, this thread has been fascinating to read today. Brighton Early has certainly called Warthogs bluff. It is a shame Warthog hasn't agreed, it would have made for a fantastic February and March to see everyone checking in on this contest.....

You couldn't be more wrong. You have no clue as to what B_E was offering (and neither is the hog, by the way).

So the conclusion is that you, Balance and B_E are just PEB groupies, stroking one another's egos. Whatever.

So keep on pumping each other's ST rep, and dumping the hog's, as if you believe in ST reputation anyway.

[warthog]

Wish they would take their argument elsewhere. Turning this thread into another SNK

Nope, it stops here (at least, for the hog).

Note that if anybody has a so-called off-forum discussion with Brighton-Early, there is every chance that it will be posted publicly anyway.

For the record the hog is comfortable with the discussion off-list.

But others, take note.

Apologies for the off-topic diversion.

[geo]

Well, have just (indirectly) become a client of this wonderful company and have experienced the first part of the process.

Brent Pownall was very knowledgeable and very good at explaining the ins and outs of the process. Courier showed up at my door when Brent said it would and courier bag is already on its way back to them. The actual physical process is well documented and I managed to get things done in line with what's required.

Seems to be cheaper for Kiwi clients than our US counterparts.

Very impressed so far. Now we wait for the outcome ....

Well done Dentie hope it turns out the way you expect it, sure it will.

[Balance]

You couldn't be more wrong. You have no clue as to what B_E was offering (and neither is the hog, by the way).

So the conclusion is that you, Balance and B_E are just PEB groupies, stroking one another's egos. Whatever.

So keep on pumping each other's ST rep, and dumping the hog's, as if you believe in ST reputation anyway.

BE confirmed what was written by me above :

1. He believes PEB will be $2.00 by 26 March 2014. You disagree and go as far as to accuse his bullishness as 'talking the sp up'.

2. BE makes you a proposal - $100k for a call option on 1.85m shares exercisable at $2.00.

Your bluff was called and you chickened out.

It's ok - that's what Warthogs do - run like chickens?

[klid]

It was actually a big waste of time, thank you warthog! I still stand by my comments... $2 by 26 March!

I fully agree with you there matey. In fact I will say $2.20 =). I'm pulling it out of the air, but confidently :)

[warthog]

New shît has come to light:
http://www.metacafe.com/w/an-KDCBJYumthbmnJ

[croesus]

Have noticed before, the Hog is more talk then walk.

[biker]

Sometimes this forum degenerates into vacuous strutting. Pity really.

[Bobcat.]

This bickering is something best put behind us, chaps. Please swallow your pride and move on.

PEB bounced nicely off 150c a week ago and climbed well to test its earlier top of 175c. There now appears to be a lot of selling pressure but for how long? Is a March inclusion in the NZX50 a certainty? Doesn't it depend on liquidity (currently less than an average of 500k per day).

Does anyone know the liquidity requirement?

[Joshuatree]

Im sending you all to watch "The Wolf Of Wall street" with a bucket of harvey wall bangers. Youve gotta say yes to another excess and money isn't everything ;....Its EVERYTHINK and Love is an accessory and you are ALL Hustling.:D;):t_up:;):glare::closed eyes::cool::D

[janner]

BC.. I am not interested in the inclusion of the NZX50.. Or the Selling pressure.. Liquidity .. et.al..

Not being a Trader !!.

I think that there is an upside in this company from all of my.... Call it what you want ....

Are you a Trader ?? or an Investor ??

I hold ... DYOR !!..



This bickering is something best put behind us, chaps. Please swallow your pride and move on.

PEB bounced nicely off 150c a week ago and climbed well to test its earlier top of 175c. There now appears to be a lot of selling pressure but for how long? Is a March inclusion in the NZX50 a certainty? Doesn't it depend on liquidity (currently less than an average of 500k per day).

Does anyone know the liquidity requirement?

[gv1]

[QUOTE=warthog;458981]So the conclusion is that you, Balance and B_E are just PEB groupies, stroking one another's egos. Whatever



His analysis speaks for itself.Probably you can enlighten us with some.

[Toasty]

Sharetrader! I come here for the analysis but I stay for the comments!

[Balance]

Sharetrader! I come here for the analysis but I stay for the comments!

Life would be rather boring in any community if all the chatter and talk revolved around pure analysis only - human beings are human beings!

[Balance]

hey Balance, what's your take on how well PEB will hold up as the US market tanks? Think anticipation of missing an announcement will outweigh the need to sell on the fear pervading the market?

disc - holding

Traders still in there although they are getting fewer each week as longer term players invest in the stock.

A big correction like we have in the States will inevitably spook more of the traders out.

My advice has always been - invest within your comfort zone, and sleep well at night!

[Whipmoney]

hey Balance, what's your take on how well PEB will hold up as the US market tanks? Think anticipation of missing an announcement will outweigh the need to sell on the fear pervading the market?

disc - holding

I guess if comparable US biotech stocks are falling in value then this could have some impact on PEB but then again this stock is relatively isolated in the sector (being NZX listed) and the instos have had their interest has piqued, particularly in light of the pending NZX50 listing.

Personally I think this stock is way overvalued considering where it is in its sales pipeline but I definitely concede that its likely to keep rising on further announcements and the price may stay ahead of its growth trajectory until it consolidates in its slow growth phase. But thats all the fun & games of valuing growth stocks.

[MAC]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it launched sooner rather than later now, seems to be close, clinical trials successfully completed, PEB regard it as being “market ready”, and it’s presently in “preparation for commercial launch”.

With the recent capital raising cash allocated to advancing the Cxbladder suite along and PEB expecting to process several ten's of thousands of tests this year, all the stars seem to be aligning for a new product launch from cashflows.

This from the website;

“Cxcolorectal is a prognostic gene signature for patients diagnosed with stage II or stage III colorectal cancer. The test predicts the aggressiveness of the tumour, allowing physicians to make the best decision regarding treatment for the patient. The gene signature passed a clinical study in Europe and Pacific Edge is currently refining Cxcolorectal to reduce cost and increase ease of delivery of the service. Cxcolorectal (Prognosis Gen I) has completed clinical trials and is preparing for commercial launch.”

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/products/pipeline/

Edit: Kindly pointed out by Miner, tens of thousands, not thousands.

[Minerbarejet]

Think it was several " tens " of thousands, Mac which puts a larger picture on it. Once some decent sales figures come out, I agree, it will be all go for colorectal, triage, etc. On top of that the infrastructure is in place on their part plus they will have a trained up sales force with a proven product once the sales come in. Good common sense seems to prevail with this company - long may it continue

[In4a$]

PEB price held up well today, new products coming, NZX50 listing coming. Looking good for holders. Glad I got in early. :t_up:

[Dentie]

Just in case anyone asks about the test kit - or queries the breakability of the test tube - especially by rough Couriers, I can tell you it is not made of glass (despite its appearance). Here is the official makeup ...

The Cxbladder tube is made of heavy plastic, specifically


Tube = PET (Polyethylentherephthalate)
Cap = PE (polyethylene)
Disc = PP (Polypropylene)
Rubber part = Brombutyl rubber


These people really have it sorted in the little areas as well as the big areas.

They must have had a good laugh when the one I sent in arrived in bubble wrap!! (Mind you, this was on the advice of the lady at NZ Post).

Happy days

[Minerbarejet]

Cellmid attracts higher $0.084 share price target: Perth broker
Tuesday, February 04, 2014 by Proactive Investors

Cellmid has a higher share price target from a new research report citing Cxbladder launch and and the Advangen Inc acquisition
Cellmid has a higher share price target from a new research report citing Cxbladder launch and and the Advangen Inc acquisition
Cellmid (ASX: CDY) is the subject of a research report from RM Capital. Here is a summary of the note.

First-in-Class mAb Oncology Program Will Rerate the Stock; Lots of Room To Grow For Advangen; New Target Price of 8.4c

Summary - In the 10 months since our last update Cellmid has had several major announcements, trial results, Cxbladder launch and the Advangen Inc acquisition. In view of that we provide a company update and our fresh view on Cellmid going forward.

Whilst the share price since our last report remained range bound between 3c – 5c, we believe that the company has moved to the next level and is currently significantly undervalued by investors.

Cellmid now has (A) a first-in-class oncology program (anti-midkine monoclonal antibody) that we expect to go into clinic late 2014 / early 2015; (B) a global consumer healthcare brand for hair loss with successfully launched products in Australia and Japan; and (C) a royalty stream from the Cxbladder test that was launched in the US in 2013.

Our price target of 8.4c (+1.2c vs. previous) include: 3.9c (+1.2c vs previous) for the consumer healthcare business; 1.7c (-1.3c vs. previous) for the LungDx test; and 2.8c (+1.3c) for the Cxbladder test.

We do not currently include the oncology program into our model, but believe that this represents major upside for the share price and our current valuation in the next 12-18 moths, once the program is at the clinical stage (first trial in humans).

Moving to oncology with anti-MK antibody is the right decision - We support management’s choice to progress with a cancer indication, rather than diabetic nephropathy.

In our view, if the company is successful in moving into the clinic with the oncology program, the quality of that asset will put Cellmid in the same echelon as US biotechs that are developing first-in-class antibodies as cancer therapeutics (e.g. Onconova, Oncomed, Verastem).

Even in the US, such companies represent a rare opportunity, as most of the industry R&D is focused on the same targets (e.g VEGF, VEGFR, EGFR, PI3K). In contrast, Cellmid is the first and only company to target midkine and will have significantly lower differentiation risks, easier clinical development and regulatory pathways (see pages 4-5 of the report).

There are only a few companies in Australia with first-in-class antibody programs that employ new mechanism of action, with Patrys (ASX: PAB) as the only other we are aware of. We believe that positive data from the midkine program will validate overseas interest and upside for investors.

Advangen and consumer healthcare - lots of room to grow - We currently value Cellmid’s consumer healthcare business at 3.9c (vs. 2.7c previously) as we include the Advangen Inc. acquisition and update our estimates for its Australian subsidiary.

In our view, investors underestimate the fact that Advangen has a global consumer health brand and with management taking all necessary steps to increase the brand equity, it’s just a matter of time until it becomes a very significant business.

This represents substantial upside to the current share price, once the company moves ahead with their commercial strategy. According to a recent industry report, the leading hair care brands are valued between $0.9B and $2.9B, and we see a big opportunity for Advangen in major markets given its therapeutic claims.

We expect considerable increase in product sales in CY2014, CY2015. In our valuation we only consider Australia, China and Japan while note that all additional markets (rest of Asia, North America, EU) represent significant mark up to our valuation.

Update on diagnostics segment (see inside note for details) - Last quarter Pacific Edge completed the first commercial sales of its Cxbladder tests signalling the start of the royalty revenues to CDY. We are increasing our estimates of market share and valuation to 2.8c (+1.3c vs previously) given the better than expected reimbursement landscape for the test.

We are a bit disappointed in Quest’s lack of action regarding the LungDx test. As a result we reduce our market penetration rates and postpone the launch to FY2015 to remain conservative. We Value LungDx at 1.7c (vs. 3c previously).

We change our royalty rate on diagnostic business from 2% to 4% in line with the current industry standards. We believe that future molecular diagnostic partnership could add 2 cents per share per test.

Action and recommendation - with positive investors sentiment towards biotechnology sector and upside opportunities coming from each of Cellmid’s three business units (therapeutics, diagnostics, consumer healthcare) we reiterate our Speculative Buy recommendation and increase our target price to 8.4 cents.


Interesting stuff re the connection of CDY and PEB.
Even PAB gets a mention.
I particularly like this bit regarding the CXBladder Test
We are increasing our estimates of market share and valuation to 2.8c (+1.3c vs previously) given the better than expected reimbursement landscape for the test.

​See next posting, (was getting round to it):)

[tunsbro]

Last quarter Pacific Edge completed the first commercial sales of its Cxbladder tests signalling the start of the royalty revenues to CDY. We are increasing our estimates of market share and valuation to 2.8c (+1.3c vs previously) given the better than expected reimbursement landscape for the test.

Just quoting this section in case people skip over the long text.

[Slam dunk]

Cellmid attracts higher $0.084 share price target: Perth broker
Tuesday, February 04, 2014 by Proactive Investors

Cellmid has a higher share price target from a new research report citing Cxbladder launch and and the Advangen Inc acquisition
Cellmid has a higher share price target from a new research report citing Cxbladder launch and and the Advangen Inc acquisition
Cellmid (ASX: CDY) is the subject of a research report from RM Capital. Here is a summary of the note.

First-in-Class mAb Oncology Program Will Rerate the Stock; Lots of Room To Grow For Advangen; New Target Price of 8.4c

Summary - In the 10 months since our last update Cellmid has had several major announcements, trial results, Cxbladder launch and the Advangen Inc acquisition. In view of that we provide a company update and our fresh view on Cellmid going forward.

Whilst the share price since our last report remained range bound between 3c – 5c, we believe that the company has moved to the next level and is currently significantly undervalued by investors.

Cellmid now has (A) a first-in-class oncology program (anti-midkine monoclonal antibody) that we expect to go into clinic late 2014 / early 2015; (B) a global consumer healthcare brand for hair loss with successfully launched products in Australia and Japan; and (C) a royalty stream from the Cxbladder test that was launched in the US in 2013.

Our price target of 8.4c (+1.2c vs. previous) include: 3.9c (+1.2c vs previous) for the consumer healthcare business; 1.7c (-1.3c vs. previous) for the LungDx test; and 2.8c (+1.3c) for the Cxbladder test.

We do not currently include the oncology program into our model, but believe that this represents major upside for the share price and our current valuation in the next 12-18 moths, once the program is at the clinical stage (first trial in humans).

Moving to oncology with anti-MK antibody is the right decision - We support management’s choice to progress with a cancer indication, rather than diabetic nephropathy.

In our view, if the company is successful in moving into the clinic with the oncology program, the quality of that asset will put Cellmid in the same echelon as US biotechs that are developing first-in-class antibodies as cancer therapeutics (e.g. Onconova, Oncomed, Verastem).

Even in the US, such companies represent a rare opportunity, as most of the industry R&D is focused on the same targets (e.g VEGF, VEGFR, EGFR, PI3K). In contrast, Cellmid is the first and only company to target midkine and will have significantly lower differentiation risks, easier clinical development and regulatory pathways (see pages 4-5 of the report).

There are only a few companies in Australia with first-in-class antibody programs that employ new mechanism of action, with Patrys (ASX: PAB) as the only other we are aware of. We believe that positive data from the midkine program will validate overseas interest and upside for investors.

Advangen and consumer healthcare - lots of room to grow - We currently value Cellmid’s consumer healthcare business at 3.9c (vs. 2.7c previously) as we include the Advangen Inc. acquisition and update our estimates for its Australian subsidiary.

In our view, investors underestimate the fact that Advangen has a global consumer health brand and with management taking all necessary steps to increase the brand equity, it’s just a matter of time until it becomes a very significant business.

This represents substantial upside to the current share price, once the company moves ahead with their commercial strategy. According to a recent industry report, the leading hair care brands are valued between $0.9B and $2.9B, and we see a big opportunity for Advangen in major markets given its therapeutic claims.

We expect considerable increase in product sales in CY2014, CY2015. In our valuation we only consider Australia, China and Japan while note that all additional markets (rest of Asia, North America, EU) represent significant mark up to our valuation.

Update on diagnostics segment (see inside note for details) - Last quarter Pacific Edge completed the first commercial sales of its Cxbladder tests signalling the start of the royalty revenues to CDY. We are increasing our estimates of market share and valuation to 2.8c (+1.3c vs previously) given the better than expected reimbursement landscape for the test.

We are a bit disappointed in Quest’s lack of action regarding the LungDx test. As a result we reduce our market penetration rates and postpone the launch to FY2015 to remain conservative. We Value LungDx at 1.7c (vs. 3c previously).

We change our royalty rate on diagnostic business from 2% to 4% in line with the current industry standards. We believe that future molecular diagnostic partnership could add 2 cents per share per test.

Action and recommendation - with positive investors sentiment towards biotechnology sector and upside opportunities coming from each of Cellmid’s three business units (therapeutics, diagnostics, consumer healthcare) we reiterate our Speculative Buy recommendation and increase our target price to 8.4 cents.


Interesting stuff re the connection of CDY and PEB.
Even PAB gets a mention.
I particularly like this bit regarding the CXBladder Test
We are increasing our estimates of market share and valuation to 2.8c (+1.3c vs previously) given the better than expected reimbursement landscape for the test.

​See next posting, (was getting round to it):)

CDY looks like a good potential value play. Be quite happy to buy a few and put them in the bottom draw.

[etrader]

Reading between the lines it looks like the industry for royalties has moved to 4 percent royalty vs what PEB negotiated some years back with CDY of 2 percent ?

It would be wise for PEB to take a 10.1 percent holding for 2.6 million to block a takeover to give security for the long term IP portfolio. Just a thought as I'm not sure if the oz market is the same here with delisting a share if they can't get the last 10.1%

[Toasty]

Depressing stuff from the mainstream media. On the plus side I suppose it can't hurt PEBs position? A tidal wave of cancer is a bleak picture.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11196931

[MAC]

As we know smoking is the largest cause of bladder cancer, here’s what ACC have to say;

http://www.acc.co.nz/PRD_EXT_CSMP/groups/external_providers/documents/guide/dis_ctrb096822.pdf

If smoking a pack a day costs around $6,250 per year or approximately $120 a week, based on pack of 20 that costs $17.20.

Then, a Cxbladder test for the peace of mind of a smoker, or a former smoker, at NZ$320, represents less than three week’s worth of smokes.

Quite a potential global market in itself of concerned wheezer's, the challenge being how would Pacific Edge advertise directly to smokers for their benefit ?

[Bobcat.]

As we know smoking is the largest cause of bladder cancer, here’s what ACC have to say;

http://www.acc.co.nz/PRD_EXT_CSMP/groups/external_providers/documents/guide/dis_ctrb096822.pdf

If smoking a pack a day costs around $6,250 per year or approximately $120 a week, based on pack of 20 that costs $17.20.

Then, a Cxbladder test for the peace of mind of a smoker, or a former smoker, at NZ$320, represents less than three week’s worth of smokes.

Quite a potential global market in itself of concerned wheezer's, the challenge being how would Pacific Edge advertise directly to smokers for their benefit ?

Since when has PEB produced a tool for detecting lung cancer? Have I missed an announcement?

[AndyLP]

Since when has PEB produced a tool for detecting lung cancer? Have I missed an announcement?

"Tobacco smoking is the main known contributor to urinary bladder cancer; in most populations, smoking is associated with over half of bladder cancer cases in men and one-third of cases among women"

[Bobcat.]

"Tobacco smoking is the main known contributor to urinary bladder cancer; in most populations, smoking is associated with over half of bladder cancer cases in men and one-third of cases among women"



That's interesting, Andy - what's the source of your quote?

[etrader]

Thanks Brighton early good point, I don't have a bio background so am unsure if they have an exclusive IP on a biomarker that PEB needs essential for the cx bladder

[Bobcat.]

You might find this an interesting read Bobcat. I believe you will find the reference (and many more) in there somewhere:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/1097-0142(20000801)89:3%3C630::AID-CNCR19%3E3.0.CO;2-Q/abstract;jsessionid=AA14EBBF74518A88C40F0FE78163E4 E9.f02t01

Furthermore there is a whole range of reading material for you if you are interested on the Wiki page in the references section - if you can't get access to a particular journal article flick me a PM with your email and I will send you the PDF.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bladder_cancer

Thnx, T - I found it interesting that up until the year 2000, the association between cigarette smoking and urinary tract cancer was never systematically quantified, and that now that it has been, it appears (for Europe at least) that half of urinary tract cancers in males, and one third in females, may be attributable to smoking. I'm now feeling even more pleased that with a little divine help I kicked the habit many years ago.

I'm left wondering however why it is with all of this present Government's support for anti-smoking campaigns, related taxation, etc that there has been no Ministry of Health incentive for DHBs to jump on board with PEB (Mid Central Health up in the Waikato is the only one it seems, and that happened several months ago). Anybody got any insight into a reason for these DHB delays?

[Dentie]

One of the main reason's for slow up take from DHB"s and the US markets is(dispite what other bloggers will say)Urologysts are happy with the current way of doing things and have been for the last 25 years or so.
In that time CX bladder is not the first new option to be available to be used by uroligyst and no product has gained sales/usage traction.


I'm sure these urologists' happiness for the "current way" would soon change if they themselves had to have a pipe with a camera stuck up their little friend!!!

[Casino]

Thnx, T - I found it interesting that up until the year 2000, the association between cigarette smoking and urinary tract cancer was never systematically quantified, and that now that it has been, it appears (for Europe at least) that half of urinary tract cancers in males, and one third in females, may be attributable to smoking. I'm now feeling even more pleased that with a little divine help I kicked the habit many years ago.

I'm left wondering however why it is with all of this present Government's support for anti-smoking campaigns, related taxation, etc that there has been no Ministry of Health incentive for DHBs to jump on board with PEB (Mid Central Health up in the Waikato is the only one it seems, and that happened several months ago). Anybody got any insight into a reason for these DHB delays?

keep in mind that certndx was doing great until they had cms coverage withdrawn. PEB's first year sales are likely to be much higher than what certndx had in their first year based on what PEB has indicated recently.

[Minerbarejet]

Suspect any perceived slowness of uptake is due to thorough testing and verification of the claims of cxbladder.
The last comments from leading urologists in the USA (see PEB website) was that it was a wonderful new tool and they were definitely interested. Previous products weren't good enough to gain traction.

[Trigger]

A couple of questions about inclusion in the NZX50.

Might the prospect of this be one of the reasons the SP has held up so well recently?

How might inclusion influence buying behaviour, and ultimately SP, prior to and post the announcement? The additional ‘willing’ buyers (instos) would, unless met by willing sellers, drive price up presumably. But might smaller retail investors also want further shares at the current price before the big dogs put a floor under it?

Have never held a stock at the time it is added to (or removed from) the NZX50 so the machinations of it all are kind of interesting.

Disc: HOLD

[klid]

Might the prospect of this be one of the reasons the SP has held up so well recently?


I don't think this has too much to do with it.
Interesting to look at this for example, the DOW biotech index and how that's tracking over recent times:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djusbt

[nextbigthing]

One of the main reason's for slow up take from DHB"s and the US markets is(dispite what other bloggers will say)Urologysts are happy with the current way of doing things and have been for the last 25 years or so.
In that time CX bladder is not the first new option to be available to be used by uroligyst and no product has gained sales/usage traction.
But of course investors believe this time is different.
Disc hold a few in the rear chance this time is different.

Good points to raise Snapiti.

Yes there were other products before CX Bladder that gave it a go, however they were less accurate and comparatively unproven which seemed to be their downfall. Pacific Edge have gone about this the right way by improving accuracy and then testing first.

As for the 25 years with no change point, that's because a better alternative wasn't there. It is now, and change will be driven by customers demanding a pee test rather than a camera insert! Urologists will be forced to change to keep up, or risk losing clients.

[AndyLP]

One of the main reason's for slow up take from DHB"s and the US markets is(dispite what other bloggers will say)Urologysts are happy with the current way of doing things and have been for the last 25 years or so.
In that time CX bladder is not the first new option to be available to be used by uroligyst and no product has gained sales/usage traction.
But of course investors believe this time is different.
Disc hold a few in the rear chance this time is different.


I remember DD saying at the last AGM - and no doubt he's said it before (perhaps someone can clarify exact working) - is that in the early days before cxBladder was conceived, the Pacific Edge team actually went around GPs and urologists and asked them what they wanted to improve their clinical work ups and thus tailor made the product / service to suit. I couldn't tell you if they approached urologists in the United States as well as NZ but this would suggest to me - in NZ at least - that they may not be as happy as one might think with current practice.

Cheers

[MAC]

We need our DHB managers to be culturally conservative and professional, lives do depend on that.

I don’t think the DHB’s have been slow to pick up Cxbladder one bit and I find such a suggestion by one or two posters to be quite cynical actually.

What Pacific Edge have been pursuing in New Zealand over the last two years with the good and fair assistance of the DHB’s, is product development in parallel with an introductory commercialisation phase for the product, quite ambitious yes, but an overlap is both necessary and pragmatic in bringing a new product to the market.

This has allowed Pacific Edge to work through the clinical trial stage, the US regulatory stage (CLIA), and now the user programme stage of that introductory process.

The user programme studies are only now just complete and the results are due to be presented at the USANZ conference in Brisbane next month, this is likely to be the catalysing point from which the DHB’s and Australian organisations may start to dip their feet in the water and consider the long term regular use of Cxbladder.

Of interest to all the DHB’s will be the Mid Central Health DHB economic evaluation results which are being performed as a 400 test user programme. It must be anticipated by Pacific Edge that this programme should also demonstrate the one third reduction in work up costs.

Onward and forward.

[Copper]

We need our DHB managers to be culturally conservative and professional, lives do depend on that.

I don’t think the DHB’s have been slow to pick up Cxbladder one bit and I find such a suggestion by one or two posters to be quite cynical actually.

What Pacific Edge have been pursuing in New Zealand over the last two years with the good and fair assistance of the DHB’s, is product development in parallel with an introductory commercialisation phase for the product, quite ambitious yes, but an overlap is both necessary and pragmatic in bringing a new product to the market.

This has allowed Pacific Edge to work through the clinical trial stage, the US regulatory stage (CLIA), and now the user programme stage of that introductory process.

The user programme studies are only now just complete and the results are due to be presented at the USANZ conference in Brisbane next month, this is likely to be the catalysing point from which the DHB’s and Australian organisations may start to dip their feet in the water and consider the long term regular use of Cxbladder.

Of interest to all the DHB’s will be the Mid Central Health DHB economic evaluation results which are being performed as a 400 test user programme. It must be anticipated by Pacific Edge that this programme should also demonstrate the one third reduction in work up costs.

Onward and forward.

A great informative post. Many tks...C.

[gloworm]

We need our DHB managers to be culturally conservative and professional, lives do depend on that.

I don’t think the DHB’s have been slow to pick up Cxbladder one bit and I find such a suggestion by one or two posters to be quite cynical actually.

What Pacific Edge have been pursuing in New Zealand over the last two years with the good and fair assistance of the DHB’s, is product development in parallel with an introductory commercialisation phase for the product, quite ambitious yes, but an overlap is both necessary and pragmatic in bringing a new product to the market.

This has allowed Pacific Edge to work through the clinical trial stage, the US regulatory stage (CLIA), and now the user programme stage of that introductory process.

The user programme studies are only now just complete and the results are due to be presented at the USANZ conference in Brisbane next month, this is likely to be the catalysing point from which the DHB’s and Australian organisations may start to dip their feet in the water and consider the long term regular use of Cxbladder.

Of interest to all the DHB’s will be the Mid Central Health DHB economic evaluation results which are being performed as a 400 test user programme. It must be anticipated by Pacific Edge that this programme should also demonstrate the one third reduction in work up costs.

Onward and forward.


Great post MAC! I was having a look at the program for USANZ (http://www.usanz2014.com/uploads/67763/ufiles/USANZ_2014_ASM_Program_31_Jan.pdf) but I can't find any mention of a presentation by David Darling or on cxbladder. Do you have a better idea as to when the results will be presented?

I'm very much looking forward to the next few months as we get a better indication of the potential uptake of cxbladder.

[MAC]

Not sure of the timing, PEB were the silver sponsor at the USANZ conference in November, perhaps they are doing something similar in Brisbane. You may need to contact them if you are going to attend for just one day.

"The study results will be published by way of a presentation at the Urological Society of Australia and New Zealand (USANZ) Annual Scientific Meeting in March 2014."

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/240937

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/calendar-of-events/usanz-2014-67th-annual-scientific-meeting/

[Trigger]

I don't think this has too much to do with it.
Interesting to look at this for example, the DOW biotech index and how that's tracking over recent times:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djusbt

Thanks klid. All other things being equal, March will be damn interesting. But things never remain equal. :)

[Trigger]

31st. It will be included as all metrics have been met. This is very positive. Suddenly all of the passive funds must take a position and many of the active funds will now be able to invest as PEB will be an investable security based on their mandates.

This is where I was going with my second question earlier. The funds buy because they have too (dogma approach - the kind of approach that Lynch maintains gives smaller investors an edge). Any additional buying must put pressure on the price, unless met equally by sellers. Leaving the sellers to one side, how much additional buying could we expect from passive funds? Material or otherwise?

[Xerof]

hard to say, but given the number of people on this thread who seem to want instant gratification in price appreciation, I can imagine there will be plenty of supply. Also, active funds are no slugs, they will surely be accumulating for this event as well?

My conclusion/assumption: don't expect fireworks from that particular announcement, expect it from the ones that actually count from the businesses perspective, i.e. sales, new products etc

[Trigger]

hard to say, but given the number of people on this thread who seem to want instant gratification in price appreciation, I can imagine there will be plenty of supply. Also, active funds are no slugs, they will surely be accumulating for this event as well?

My conclusion/assumption: don't expect fireworks from that particular announcement, expect it from the ones that actually count from the businesses perspective, i.e. sales, new products etc

Yeah makes sense, as does a phased entry after the announcement.

[Minerbarejet]

Index inclusion is very important. Not only for the fact that passive funds must invest, but because suddenly it is available to US investors through their online brokerage accounts. For example, Fidelity investors can only invest in NZX50 constituents. In addition, suddenly PEB will be included in most of the international screens active funds use to short list potential investment opportunities.Thanks BE - thats very enlightening and encouraging.

[Trigger]

Index inclusion is very important. Not only for the fact that passive funds must invest, but because suddenly it is available to US investors through their online brokerage accounts. For example, Fidelity investors can only invest in NZX50 constituents. In addition, suddenly PEB will be included in most of the international screens active funds use to short list potential investment opportunities.

Thanks Brighton. I am probably over simplifying this, but it seems to me that on one hand the impact of the pending inclusion might be moderated by phased insto buying pre (if policy allows it) and post announcement, effectively allowing for a degree of feathering in of a new "normal" for buying and selling activity.

However, the more important point you make here, to me at least, is the improved awareness and visibility of PEB to a new section of the investment market. I think that point, coupled with PEB's active promotional activity (road shows, urologist endorsement, sales people wearing out shoe leather and keyboards, etc), bodes well. The permutations are only positive to my mind.

[Harvey Specter]

Just a reminder - dont pay doctors for trial results : http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11197977

In this case the shorted a share, presumably because the drug trial was unsuccessful.

[geo]

Wonder what the collapse of Obamacare and it's bailout will have on the healthcare providers in the US????

[Whipmoney]

Wonder what the collapse of Obamacare and it's bailout will have on the healthcare providers in the US????

Obamacare is unlikely to collapse any time soon as it seems Boehner is winning the war (in his party) to go ahead with an unconditional raise in the debt ceiling (i.e. without the republican house majority demanding a repeal of obamacare provisions).

Conservative/Republican opposition aside - the Affordable Healthcare Act has actually been rather effective.

[Slam dunk]

Looks like Cancer Weekly picked up the PR release the other day. All helps in spreading the word.

Pacific Edge Diagnostics Usa Ltd; Pacific Edge's Cxbladder Boosting Confidence in Bladder Cancer Detection
732 words
11 February 2014
Cancer Weekly


NCIW
67
English
(c) Copyright 2014 Cancer Weekly via NewsRx.com
2014 FEB 11 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Cancer Weekly -- Bladder cancer patients, survivors, and families faced with life-long surveillance of the highly recurring disease are finding reassurance in Cxbladder, a new bladder cancer detection test developed by Pacific Edge Ltd (javascript:void(0);). This non-invasive, urine-based test measures the expression of five genes that create a unique molecular signature for bladder cancer, alerting doctors to possible tumors. More accurate(1) than many other urine-based cancer detection tests, Cxbladder can give patients and doctors added confidence in their diagnoses.
Bladder cancer has a very high rate of recurrence and often progresses quickly. Consequently bladder cancer patients live in a world of ongoing monitoring and clinical intervention, much of it is invasive and expensive. Cxbladder, previously available in several countries around the world from Pacific Edge, offers patients a non-invasive, accurate way to detect bladder cancer. Now, Cxbladder is available in the in the United States from Pacific Edge's new, dedicated CLIA laboratory and commercial headquarters in Hershey, Pennsylvania.
"I have been using Cxbladder extensively since June 2011," said Joe DiTrolio, M.D., a Board Certified Urologist and Professor of Surgery, Section of Urology/Department of Surgery, Rutgers New Jersey Medical School. "Over that time period, Cxbladder has proven to be the most accurate, non-invasive test for monitoring patients with either hematuria or known bladder cancer."
Clinicians are using Cxbladder to provide a number of clinical and patient advantages. The test can be used on patients presenting with hematuria to rule-in or rule-out the presence of bladder cancer, saving many patients the inconvenience, invasiveness and cost of a full urological workup.
Researchers at Pacific Edge have found that messenger RNA (mRNA) levels of specific biomarker genes are typically present at higher levels in urine samples of patients that are positive for bladder cancer compared to urine samples from patients who are negative for the disease.
The performance of the Cxbladder test was evaluated in a formal clinical study and published in the Journal of Urology in 2012. The study shows that Cxbladder outperformed all of the other clinical technologies that were evaluated alongside it. In this study(1),( )Cxbladder correctly identified 100% of late stage tumors and 97% of high-grade tumors.
Just a small sample of urine is required for the test. Patient samples are collected in an easy, simple to use urine sampling system, analyzed at Pacific Edge Diagnostics' CLIA-certified and CAP-accredited laboratory in Hershey, Pennsylvania, and the results are sent to the physician within seven business days.
"The Cxbladder test is a wonderful new diagnostic tool in our evaluation process for patients with new onset hematuria and for patients who are being followed with known bladder cancer," said Guy Bernstein, M.D. a Board Certified Urologist at Urology Health Specialists in Bryn Mawr, PA.
Cxbladder is a quick, cost effective, non-invasive, accurate cancer detection test that has significant advantages to both patients and healthcare providers said Jackie Walker, Chief Executive Officer of Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA. "We are committed to fighting this disease, and early and accurate detection is a key part of that effort."
More than seven million Americans will have some form of blood in their urine (hematuria) resulting in more than one million undergoing evaluation this year for bladder cancer. It is estimated that 1 in 42 Americans will develop bladder cancer in their lifetime(2). The very high recurrence of this disease following a positive diagnosis requires some patients to receive expensive monitoring for the rest of their lives. Bladder cancer has the highest total medical costs of any cancer per patient. Nearly $3 billion is spent to treat bladder cancer each year in the US.
Patient education materials about Cxbladder are available at http://www.cxbladder.com (javascript:void(0)). Pacific Edge also offers a Patient Financial Assistance Program to ensure access to this cutting edge test.
For more information about Cxbladder, contact Customer Service at Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA Ltd (javascript:void(0);). at 1-855-CXBLADR (1-855-292-5237.

[whatsup]

I wonder the effect of world nuclear war will have on healthcare providers in the US????

B E , Dunno wait and see !

[Casino]

Wonder what the collapse of Obamacare and it's bailout will have on the healthcare providers in the US????

CertNdx lost CMS coverage because of Obamacare and tougher regulation. In the long run that's a very good thing for PEB because bogus products won't be funded and can't compete.

[clip]

Nuclear war = fallout = exponential cancer = PEB shares @ $27.50

Here's hoping for nuclear war! 5 words I never thought i'd say :)

[Minerbarejet]

Nuclear war = fallout = exponential cancer = PEB shares @ $27.50= reduced population=no sharemarket=PEB shares@ 0.00.

[Whipmoney]

CertNdx lost CMS coverage because of Obamacare and tougher regulation. In the long run that's a very good thing for PEB because bogus products won't be funded and can't compete.

Was it really due to the Affordable Care Act though or was poor science to blame?

[Bobcat.]

=emp=no internet=no ST=less ramping=$1.50

[Casino]

Was it really due to the Affordable Care Act though or was poor science to blame?

both - before healthcare reforms it was easy to make money with diagnostic tools of questionable value. must read for PEB holders:

http://media.drugwonks.com/media/attachments/51e67d5d2017a828be00000b.pdf?1374059870

[skid]

Here's hoping for nuclear war! 5 words I never thought i'd say :)

5 words I never thought anyone would say-

Once in a while i read a post (even on here) and my jaw just hits the table:scared:

[Whipmoney]

both - before healthcare reforms it was easy to make money with diagnostic tools of questionable value. must read for PEB holders:

http://media.drugwonks.com/media/attachments/51e67d5d2017a828be00000b.pdf?1374059870

Interesting article. We hear a lot on this forum about CMS coverage but has anyone considered the impact of PEB not receiving this? Surely this would send the share price into a tailspin as its their largest viable market..?

Do you think they would go back to the drawing board/lab? Or fold like Predictive Bioscience?

[MAC]

Crumbs you can be a perma bear Whipmoney,

Have you some insight to share with the forum as to why CMS would not add cxbladder to their list of thousands of providers ?

The Cxbladder laboratory in the US has already achieved CMS approval (CLIA) and they have also taken a bold step in providing CLIA approval for the New Zealand laboratory. As I understand, it is very rare indeed for CMS to approval any lab outside of the US.

In addition, Cxbladder outperforms any pre-existing competitive providers they may have, it reduces bladder cancer work up costs by one third, and Pacific Edge guidance based on the natural ongoing progression of discussion with CMS to become a provider is really very positive.


Edit: per post below

[Casino]

Interesting article. We hear a lot on this forum about CMS coverage but has anyone considered the impact of PEB not receiving this? Surely this would send the share price into a tailspin as its their largest viable market..?

Do you think they would go back to the drawing board/lab? Or fold like Predictive Bioscience?

Everything about the CertNdx story from inception to pulling the plug is fishy. They were only told to produce a convincing study. Isn't it strange that they shut it down given how great their product was?

If the science is good, then the risk is small and delays limited. Authorities in the US have a lot of discretion and work closely with respected experts. I think of it as a great moat to hold off the next CertNdx. It is also good that the US healthcare reforms place much greater emphasis on disease prevention. There are a lot of hyperboles in regards to Obamacare but many of the changes I read about seem quite sensible.

[Casino]

Crumbs you can be a perma bear and a misery Whipmoney,

Have you some insight to share with the forum as to why CMS would not add cxbladder to their list of thousands of providers ?

The Cxbladder laboratory in the US has already achieved CMS approval and retains CLIA accreditation, CMS have also taken a bold step in approving the New Zealand laboratory. As I understand, it is very rare indeed for CMS to approval any lab outside of the US.

In addition, cxbladder outperforms any pre-existing competitive providers they may have, it reduces bladder cancer work up costs by one third, and Pacific Edge guidance based on the natural progression of discussion with CMS is really very positive.


Cxbladder is not covered by CMS but the management thinks that it will go through 'in early 2014'. Such an announcement is way way way more important than making the NZX50.

[winner69]

Crumbs you can be a perma bear and a misery .

MAC -.just Whipmoney view of things. You obviously disagree

Whip is normally very bullish on things and I would say far from being a misery.

[MAC]

Cxbladder is not covered by CMS but the management thinks that it will go through 'in early 2014'. Such an announcement is way way way more important than making the NZX50.

Quite right Casino, I shall amend my post to be clearer, PEB have achieved CMS approval for the laboratory (CLIA), buy not yet CMS approval as a provider. Onward and forward with the next step.

[Casino]

I'm amazed that they have 'promised' ten thousands of sales even without any coverage. I can't wait to see sales with insurers on board.

[baller18]

Yes very lofty promise's which IMHO will not be achieved due to many many factors out of the control of the company.
If it did happen $1.65 p/s is going to look very very cheap.
It seems many on this thread think that given time PEB's success is a done deal I believe that is certainly not the case.

P/s will look very very cheap? Think you got this part wrong snapiti, with one million sales then the current mkt cap would match by a P/S ratio of 10, if you are strictly looking at PEB's SP from a price to sales ratio.

[baller18]

just for you moosie,
current lack of insurance coverage,
many legal hurdles,
a few medical hurdles,
a time consuming and prolonged proposition to change urolygist way of doing things.

I am not saying it wont happen I just believe it will take longer than till the end of this year to achieve 10's of thousands of paid for ( or not) tests.

For the record I hope I am wrong.

But a lot of urologists were using the test from certdnx and a lot of them are still using the FISH test?
With CXbladder being a lot more cost effective and more accurate how much longer will it take? Who knows, but doesn't seem too far away :)

[MAC]

Wasn't intending to suggest it was a permanent state of mind or a categorising personality trait Winner, just that that particular post was really quite perma bearish and that it oozed an unreasonable outlook of misery without any knowledgeable supporting or factually corroborating analysis. Apologies to you Whipmoney if any offence was read, none was intended.

Mac

[Casino]

The management has hinted at several huge development that are possible this year:

1. CMS coverage
2. Significant sales volume this year
3. Additional products
4. Take-over offer

Why are people so obsessed with the NZX50 listing?

[winner69]

The whole US healthcare system is set up to make the big companies rich, stuff what the citizens want. It is essentially one big racket.

I guess is that ObamaCare is sure to make it worse. How ObamaCare will work has been written by lobbyists of the industries that benefit from the racketeering.

Lobbying is the game if one wants to succeed - not just getting the system working for you but what products can be used and all that

How does a little outfit from NZ get what it wants in this environment.

It has been said that Darling is a weak link in this respect. However I take heart from Balance when he reassured me that the Board had recognised this weakness and hired some gun US people as a de facto 'Board' in the US. That's good

But the past has seen many great products etc fail in the US because the 'right' people weren't on board with it.

Hopefully PEB have this under control but I see this as one of the biggest risks for them so that they don't, as our resident perma bear said earlier, fold like Predictive Bioscience (whoever they were)

[winner69]

If any doubts about how cheap PEB is heres a good table from http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/68360/fridays-top-10-graeme-wheelers-message-labour-and-greens-dr-doom-bernanke-awkward-suit

[Harvey Specter]

The management has hinted at several huge development that are possible this year:

1. CMS coverage
2. Significant sales volume this year
3. Additional products
4. Take-over offerThese provide the upside.


Why are people so obsessed with the NZX50 listing?This limits the downside, in the short term, which given the potential for upside, derisks the investment. I dont expect a large increase but beleive it puts a floor on the price.


If any doubts about how cheap PEB is heres a good table from http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/68360/fridays-top-10-graeme-wheelers-message-labour-and-greens-dr-doom-bernanke-awkward-suit
The US comparive is a bit misleading as it is comparing predominately established low growth companies (Mircosoft, Oracle, etc) with early stage growth companies.

[Casino]

If any doubts about how cheap PEB is heres a good table from http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/68360/fridays-top-10-graeme-wheelers-message-labour-and-greens-dr-doom-bernanke-awkward-suit


Yes at these levels PEB has 100m revenue - the stated 5-year goal - priced in. It's scary. But that's based on 10% market penetration with one product. If Cxbladder is really that good, then 80% market penetration or more are possible. Add to that the other products and you'll realize that there is still a lot of upside. Just think how much the product portfolio would be worth in the hands of Roche Diagnostics who know how to play the system top to bottom. Then think how much it would be worth to Roche Diagnostics and that's your price target.

[baller18]

This would not be very ethical, but I have always wondered if I could just ring up the lab in the states and pretend I am one of the patient's wanting to know when my results would be ready..
One day, I'll be Mr. Smith
Next day, Jones, and so on...
Much clearer understanding where sales is heading??

[Casino]

This would not be very ethical, but I have always wondered if I could just ring up the lab in the states and pretend I am one of the patient's wanting to know when my results would be ready..
One day, I'll be Mr. Smith
Next day, Jones, and so on...
Much clearer understanding where sales is heading??

Good plan. I don't think it will work tho. I'm actually very surprised they feel confident about doing ten thousands of tests. For the first year I would have expected very few test and mostly tests from user programs.

[winner69]

Hi Winner, I have seen this comment about David being the the weak link before and find it quite ridiculous and totally unsubstantiated.

Maybe would have been better worded saying if he has a weakness or chink in his armour it is in the area I mentioned. Good risk management by PEB Board has seem them put together the best team they can, including an Advisory Board (think that what it is called) with real commercial experience in the US

How successful they lobby in the US I feel is still key .... it does seem a win or lose game and no in between

[baller18]

Good plan. I don't think it will work tho. I'm actually very surprised they feel confident about doing ten thousands of tests. For the first year I would have expected very few test and mostly tests from user programs.
10K alone would be quite good for the first year, and they have also indicated they could see a profit for the year in 2014... so hmmm.. maybe more than 10k worth of tests then?

[baller18]

Maybe would have been better worded saying if he has a weakness or chink in his armour it is in the area I mentioned. Good risk management by PEB Board has seem them put together the best team they can, including an Advisory Board (think that what it is called) with real commercial experience in the US

How successful they lobby in the US I feel is still key .... it does seem a win or lose game and no in between

Why is DD a weak link winner?

[Casino]

Certndx saw exponential growth. I would hope for that and not worry about the start of the curve. I thought they also see break-even at a slightly later stage?

[baller18]

On the 18th Oct when they announced first commercial sales were achieved in the states, it was 2 days after they had an agreement with fedmed.
I am also curious to know were these commericial sales set off from the fedmed agreement? Does anyone have any ideas?
If so, they these provider contracts are definitely generating sales for PEB..
It does look like they are generating sales, but how significant we can only speculate for now.
But if COMMERICIAL SALES were made straight after from the agreement, then it is definitely a positive sign

[Casino]

By epxonential I mean two data points ;)

Revenues from CertNDx were expected to be $14.5 million in 2013, up from $4.2 million in 2012, and $1 million in 2011.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/chris-walls/4/71a/500

[Casino]

On the 18th Oct when they announced first commercial sales were achieved in the states, it was 2 days after they had an agreement with fedmed.
I am also curious to know were these commericial sales set off from the fedmed agreement? Does anyone have any ideas?
If so, they these provider contracts are definitely generating sales for PEB..

I can see how PPOs can streamline sales but not how they could drive them.