PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[baller18]

I can see how PPOs can streamline sales but not how they could drive them.
This is what intrigues me, if PPO's can't streamline sales, it just happened to happen straight after the agreement was made when they achieved their first commericial sales in the states...

[Casino]

sorry I had a typo earlier. I meant that they can streamline sales and that's all they do.

[MAC]

Most commonly biotech startup companies have zero sales for up to five years or more during a research & development / early commercialisation phase.

Those who may attempt to apply p/s ratio’s during this phase clearly have little understanding as to how to value a company like PEB at this stage in its life.

Though I wish them well, they may be missing out on what’s a robust investment in PEB.

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_CA/ca/industries/tmt/b6115312b90fb110VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm

[baller18]

To mac, do you think the first sales were set off by the provider agreement?

[baller18]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=)Interesting DD mentions pacific edge already have their first customer who has ran approx 80 tests back in 31st jan 2013.
Must be Dr. Joe DiTrollo

[MAC]

To mac, do you think the first sales were set off by the provider agreement?

I don't see why they should not have been Baller, the announcement of first commercial sales was very shortly after the FedMED sign up.

It's important to note also that although PEB haven’t been formally announced as such as a Medicare provider, the PEB website does offer this recent and rather interesting statement;

"Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder."

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/billing-policy/

regards, Mac

[baller18]

I don't see why they should not have been Baller, the announcement of first commercial sales was very shortly after the FedMED sign up.

It's important to note also that although PEB haven’t been formally announced as such as a Medicare provider, the PEB website does offer this recent and rather interesting statement;

"Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder."

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/billing-policy/

regards, Mac

Whoa very intriguing and interesting Mac
Time to put my idea into work and ring up pacific edge if they are? Since its on their website

[MAC]

Wouldn’t get to excited, by recent I mean over the last six months or so.

From the website it would seem that PEB are though presently accepting patients with Medicare coverage, but we also know that negotiations are ongoing between Pacific Edge and Medicare. This from the ODT, 28th December 2013.

“However, the next crucial step is Pacific Edge gaining clearance from the Centre for Medicaid and Medicare Services (CMS), which oversees and reimburses payments for the US public health system.

Swann welcomed Obama-care, but the legislative changes mean Pacific Edge has to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, though he is hopeful it will be through early next year.”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639

If anyone is able to interpret those words ‘clearance’ and ‘accreditation’ then we may all be more enlightened.

It provides a nice paradox, how can billing occur without negotiations being final, perhaps there is some form of interim or transitory agreement in place ?

[baller18]

So if peb did not get coverage it would mean free tests? Logic is a bit flaw there

[MAC]

Coming back to Chris Swanns advice.

As we know the whole sector including CMS had a big shake up last year and it does take bureaucrats a good lengthy period to interpret and prepare policy following new mandates like the Obama-care legislation.

“Swann welcomed Obama-care, but the legislative changes mean Pacific Edge has to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, though he is hopeful it will be through early next year.”

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11178639 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639)

Fortunately for Pacific Edge most of that disruption seems to come and gone in early to mid 2013, and although PEB are probably still hurdle jumping even now we should be encouraged that accreditation is apparently close.

Once accredited it seems that the Obama-care legislation should greatly benefit companies like PEB. This assessment by Forbes provides some insight;

http://www.forbes.com/sites/genemarcial/2013/08/09/obamacare-focuses-on-prevention-and-wellness-by-spending-more-on-medical-tests/

It’s a five year plan, patiently onward and forward.

[MAC]

It's more probable, due to the timing of the cxbladder launch, that PEB are working through a specific process within CMS. Thus, while discussions and final accreditation is ongoing, PEB remain a medicare provider with a final commercial agreement governed by the legislative changes pending.

With PEB having been a Medicare provider for six months now, it does seem to put that anticipated 'tens of thousands of tests in 2014' advice from Chris Swann into some perspective.

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/billing-policy/

[nextbigthing]

Are we going to see a big leap in price with announcements such as medicare approval etc? Do you think most of this was already priced in? Or do you feel that this will be a significant derisking event that will cause investors to flood in, in anticipation of the 10% market share becoming just the beginning?

[Longhaul]

Just throwing this out there, whats it going to take for PEB to be a $1billion dollar company?

[croesus]

That's all good.

But 1 stumble... and were back to 70c... jumping jack flash.

Not down ramping ( I hold ) .. but a lot of expectation here.

I even have a mate of a mate... he s a taxi driver and has been buying that's scary... fortunately I know no shoe shine boys.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

From the HY in December:

"Looking forward, over the next six months we expect to deliver:
• Contracted commercial relationships with National Network Providers in the USA.
• A steady increase in the growth of the adoption of Cxbladder in all markets.
• A completion of the raising of capital that will drive an acceleration of our sales force rollout in 2014.
• The gearing of our New Zealand team to deliver two new products to the market over the coming 2014 fnancial year."

So I see at least 3 announcements there (only 1 for possible contracts [of a possible 3+ reading the HY] + 2 for the triage products). NZX50 inclusion makes 4. Wild card makes 5 over the coming 4 months? Looks good to me knowing how much of a role announcements play for PEB!

Might be all factored into the price already as everyone already knows it's going to happen... They do say that the market is forward looking. Remember when we all thought that the price would boost when their US lab gained accreditation and then the SP ended up dropping a significant amount, as it was buy the rumour sell the fact?

[klid]

Might be all factored into the price already as everyone already knows it's going to happen...

The chance of it happening might be factored in but/so when it actually does happen it's still going to have an effect. So many factors. Net result vastly positive on such announcements in such conditions I would think.

[Minerbarejet]

The chance of it happening might be factored in but/so when it actually does happen it's still going to have an effect. So many factors. Net result vastly positive on such announcements in such conditions I would think.
Imho it is the sales that are the unknown factor. A result expecting " several tens of thousands" of tests is duly noted but what does it actually mean. It implies more than 20000 and thats all. But how much more is the big unknown and that is unlikely to be reflected in the SP.
As an aside to all this - I have read this thread fairly thoroughly and have never seen any reference to Canada.
Is this already combined into the USA operation or is that a separate market? It would seem that the cities of Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto and Montreal would produce a fair quantity of patients requiring help.

[nextbigthing]

I have read this thread fairly thoroughly and have never seen any reference to Canada.


There seems to be a lot of talk about Moose....

[Minerbarejet]

The Canadian system is much different than the American system I can guarantee you that! I think more emphasis on Spain and possibly China would be a better strategy as per rate of cancer and recent patent, with respect.

NBT, your mother been talking about me again???

(just kidding) :D
What i was inferring was that Canada per se is part of the larger geographical area of North America.
I doubt that the 49th parallel is a demarcation line for rate of incidence of haematuria and no doubt that, as Cxbladder's potential filters through from the US, the Canadians will take some sort of position on it.

[Minerbarejet]

Heads up on CDY on asx. Price sensitive announcement
Bids were at .04 so far - since withdrawn

[clip]

we are in trading halt, yes?

[russbus]

I sold out of snk blt brl and wyn this morning and added to my peb holding. Best decision ive made in my short time investing with shares :D

[Slam dunk]

From the HY in December:

"Looking forward, over the next six months we expect to deliver:
• Contracted commercial relationships with National Network Providers in the USA.
• A steady increase in the growth of the adoption of Cxbladder in all markets.
• A completion of the raising of capital that will drive an acceleration of our sales force rollout in 2014.
• The gearing of our New Zealand team to deliver two new products to the market over the coming 2014 fnancial year."

So I see at least 3 announcements there (only 1 for possible contracts [of a possible 3+ reading the HY] + 2 for the triage products). NZX50 inclusion makes 4. Wild card makes 5 over the coming 4 months? Looks good to me knowing how much of a role announcements play for PEB!

Moosie - this must be considered one of the 'wild card' announcements :)

[Trader101]

Has anyone an idea/guess on the amount of revenue income from NZ going forward?

[Trader101]

Thank you Moosie.

[Harvey Specter]

Just to put this into context...

There were 332 cases of bladder cancer recorded in NZ in 2005 (Otago Uni ref). PEB now has access to half those cases.

165 x $550 p/test = $90750 p/annum revenue.

I think we can safely assume that will be double when all DHB's on board.

That's $180,000 per annum with just one test each (almpst certainly higher due to increasing rates of bladder cancer).

Start adding mote tests + triage and it starts looking pretty good even for a tiny country like ours!You also have to count all those that think they may have it but after testing dont. Plus those that have had it and need regular checks to ensure it hasn't returned. So if used for all of these, much more than $100k per year. EDIT: what T said 2 posts up ;)

[Poet]

Just to put this into context...

There were 332 cases of bladder cancer recorded in NZ in 2005 (Otago Uni ref). PEB now has access to half those cases.

165 x $550 p/test = $90750 p/annum revenue.

I think we can safely assume that will be double when all DHB's on board.

That's $180,000 per annum with just one test each (almpst certainly higher due to increasing rates of bladder cancer).

Start adding mote tests + triage and it starts looking pretty good even for a tiny country like ours!

disc - happily holding for awhile now. Start the Chattanooga Choo Choo up again!

And that is new cases for last year, there would probably be five times as many who were diagnosed in the five previous years and who are still requiring ongoing tests

[whatsup]

Just to put this into context...

There were 332 cases of bladder cancer recorded in NZ in 2005 (Otago Uni ref). PEB now has access to half those cases.

165 x $550 p/test = $90750 p/annum revenue.

I think we can safely assume that will be double when all DHB's on board.

That's $180,000 per annum with just one test each (almpst certainly higher due to increasing rates of bladder cancer).

Start adding mote tests + triage and it starts looking pretty good even for a tiny country like ours!

disc - happily holding for awhile now. Start the Chattanooga Choo Choo up again!

The real importance of this ann is the confirmation from DHB's that Cxbladder is the test to run with , IMHO all DHB's (world wide ) will follow this practise ! .

[psychic]

Think I recall reading that the test would cost less in NZ than the $550 figure for USA?

[Slam dunk]

The real importance of this ann is the confirmation from DHB's that Cxbladder is the test to run with , IMHO all DHB's (world wide ) will follow this practise ! .

I agree with whatsup. This shows that the DHBs have concluded that CxBladder offers enough benefits that it’s worthy of adoption. And that’s a good thing because hopefully it’s a sign of how it will be adopted overseas (particularly the US). It should also help in US conversations to be able to point to NZ as an example of a country that has adopted the technology on a large scale.

[Xerof]

Think I recall reading that the test would cost less in NZ than the $550 figure for USA?

~$300 if my memory serves me right. This is a serious piece of additional news for the pipeline. Ignore Moosie's rubbish comment, there will be several thousand tests undertaken in NZ pa. I'm trying to find the info that scales up the number of tests generated by one incident of confirmed cancer, but my recollection is that it is many many many multiples

[whatsup]

Jeez, sorry for doing a very quick 5 min back of the envelope calculation Xerof with the info I had ar hand. I'll pray for forgivesness tonight then never try again eh?

DOUBLE PROMISE m, go the Kennys in the ice hockey at the Olympics !!

[Xerof]

Jeez, sorry for doing a very quick 5 min back of the envelope calculation Xerof with the info I had ar hand. I'll pray for forgivesness tonight then never try again eh?

not sure what you have in your hand, but it sure aint helpful information.

[Harvey Specter]

About 50,000 cases of haematuria (blood in the urine) are anticipated in Australia and New Zealand, giving rise to about 3,000 new cases of bladder cancer in Australasia each year—80 percent of them among men.
http://www.idealog.co.nz/businessplan/first-defenceSo about 5,000 present with symtoms each year in NZ.

[blockhead]

Someone just grabbed 700,000 so the back of the envelope figures must have appealed to them

[psychic]

RRP of US$250 in Aus/NZ, €200 in Europe, and US$768(3) in the U.S.
(composite CPT codes) versus US$600 - US$1000 for flexible cystoscopies

from the july 2011 cap raising doc

[psychic]

and this:

Following diagnosis, NCCN(2) guidelines say
patients will be monitored for 5 years and are
recommended to receive 12 cystoscopies

[blobbles]

Brighton has it right here. PEB can now say "Over half of all people presenting with hematuria in New Zealand are now tested using our product because its so good." That is where the real upside will come from as NZ is often used as a test bed for all sorts of things due to our similarities with the US. A great point of leverage (providing they both start testing and it is successful) for future negotiations in the US/Europe.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Brighton has it right here. PEB can now say "Over half of all people presenting with hematuria in New Zealand are now tested using our product because its so good." That is where the real upside will come from as NZ is often used as a test bed for all sorts of things due to our similarities with the US. A great point of leverage (providing they both start testing and it is successful) for future negotiations in the US/Europe.

Or more likely they say 'where's New Zealand?' ;)

[Xerof]

Moosie, what you missed was the retest revenue available from this agreement and the number of presentations that 'generate' ~332 patients

Harveys number 5,000 tests per annum in NZ - sounds fair?half those at ~$300 = 750k

your number 332, times 5 years of existing patients, times say 2 tests per year for each patient, then halve it

so existing cases generate 332 * 2 *~300 *5 divided by 2 = ~500k

So on the basis of the figures people have published here, my best guess for revenues for the first year is $1.25m. I have missed another round of tests for those diagnosed from the 2,500 in the current year, but it's ~50k extra

I can't say the figures are reliable, but I would say there is a bit more logic in their calculation than the number that you rushed out in a hell of a hurry.

Anyway, what B_E says is actually more relevant to the impact of this announcement than crunching some numbers for their smallest market by far. Bring on the calcs for USA and Europe.....

[klid]

Golly, said to myself that I won't check the share market today or go looking for news but BAM hear about PEB on the 6 o'clock news! Fantastic!!!

[psychic]

Only half of NZders the US may ask?
Yes this announcement is good news, way overdue I reckon. But I find it very perplexing that in a country such as NZ with a significant public health system, a Govt entity such as this can be set up to represent only 50% of the DHB's. I have personal baggage with the lack of communication and cooperation between DHB's at patient level and this just seems to confirm the "reinvent the wheel" attitude that seemingly pervades in this sector. uggh

[Minerbarejet]

Only half of NZders the US may ask?
Yes this announcement is good news, way overdue I reckon. But I find it very perplexing that in a country such as NZ with a significant public health system, a Govt entity such as this can be set up to represent only 50% of the DHB's. I have personal baggage with the lack of communication and cooperation between DHB's at patient level and this just seems to confirm the "reinvent the wheel" attitude that seemingly pervades in this sector. ugghYes but if you look at it PEB has achieved 50% market penetration in one hit.
The rest will probably follow apart from some mavericks.

[baller18]

Ten's of thousands of tests is definitely in reach now huh :)

[Xerof]

I found the pdf document which has the detailed analysis of the US market but cannot upload it

Its called PEB investor Presentation 2011, page 27 has a table

The numbers produced earlier (remarkably) follow the logic of this presentation, EXCEPT for the number of retests generated in year two, (I used 2, when it seems to be 4)

The table has 1m tests generating 68,800 confirmed diagnoses, so 332 out of 5,000 is about the same proportion.

looked at from another angle, each confirmed case, typically generates 26 tests, which can act as a crosscheck of the logic, i.e. 165 * 26 * 300 is 1.3m pa

in the table, they generate US$100m at 10% penetration.....50%?......don't even go there........

[winner69]

Do you assume a mortality rate in your calcs

[baller18]

Do you assume a mortality rate in your calcs
Don't think mortality rate matters, as it would just be cancelled out by new cases wouldn't it winner?

[Xerof]

Don't think mortality rate matters, as it would just be cancelled out by new cases wouldn't it winner?

I exhaustively checked, crosschecked and triple checked the insurance mortality tables from 1922 to 2012 for a pattern, then compared it to the annual rates of increase for this particular cancer, relevant to the particular population under scrutiny, only to discover they exactly offset.....

Mr Magoo, thanks, I knew you'd deliver :t_up:

[etrader]

Doesn't all things that matter only exist in these 4 DHBs anyway so basically 100% of nz

[winner69]

Don't think mortality rate matters, as it would just be cancelled out by new cases wouldn't it winner?

Less ongoing tests if the patient dies

[Harvey Specter]

Only half of NZders the US may ask?
Yes this announcement is good news, way overdue I reckon. But I find it very perplexing that in a country such as NZ with a significant public health system, a Govt entity such as this can be set up to represent only 50% of the DHB's. I have personal baggage with the lack of communication and cooperation between DHB's at patient level and this just seems to confirm the "reinvent the wheel" attitude that seemingly pervades in this sector. ugghAgree. I could understand if it was the small ones grouping together to get scale, but given it is the 4 largest, why don't all the small ones join so they benefit from efficiency of scale.

[Xerof]

Hancocks,

Atta boy!!

thats for 100% of the local market - a story for next.....month......

[Harvey Specter]

Change the figures in the American presentation; and, 8,984 tests @ $320 = $2,874,880


5444so half is $1.4m till the smaller ones join up. No reason why they wouldn't. The question is will this be the primary/recommended test or just an option. The user test results suggest it will be the former.

[Snow Leopard]

Nice announcement, but:


...As a result of the agreement Cxbladder will be considered for use to evaluate
patients presenting with haematuria...

I think the word considered means that the sale of tests to the extent some people are anticipating is, at best, going to take time.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

Nice announcement, but:

I think the word considered means that the sale of tests to the extent some people are anticipating is, at best, going to take time.
r

One can’t force a physician do anything, but procedures and guidelines will follow now, and there is no reason why the processes established during the user group programmes should not just roll over and become routine practice pretty much straight away.

It’s pleasing though Paper Tiger to see traders doing some analysis don’t you think.

[Snow Leopard]

One can’t force a physician do anything, but procedures and guidelines will follow now, and there is no reason why the processes established during the user group programmes should not just roll over and become routine practice pretty much straight away.

It’s pleasing though Paper Tiger to see traders doing some analysis don’t you think.

So what are the procedures and guidelines?
Do a CxBladder test for everybody who has blood in the urine/suspected of BC?
Do a CxBladder test for that smaller group who meet these criteria?
Do not use as we do not have the funds to justify the cost/benefit analysis?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[benjitara]

Obviously a positive announcement today. I'm buoyed by the regulative nature of the announcement and consequences for promoting this on a bigger scale in other markets. If the test becomes protocol within governmental run establishments then we have a true "moat" quality to the product on two terms, IP and protocol/regimes. that's important in New Zealand. I still believe uptake of this test will be slower than any traders wish it to be. Large sales will be factored into the share price well before we see any such sales eventuate. This will cause wild share price fluctuations, all of which will have no effect on my current positive view of the company.

[MAC]

So what are the procedures and guidelines?
Do a CxBladder test for everybody who has blood in the urine/suspected of BC?
Do a CxBladder test for that smaller group who meet these criteria?
Do not use as we do not have the funds to justify the cost/benefit analysis?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The work up costs are reduced for the DHB's by one third through the application of Cxbladder which should in itself help DHB management move on it.

One would expect the procedural outline to look similar if not the same to that below which I understand was developed by Pacific Edge closely in consultation with Urologists and the DHB's;

So yes it would seem likely that any poor unfortunate presenting with haematuria should receive at least one Cxbladder test, up to seven if they, heaven forbid, have cancer.

5445

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks for the piccy MAC. Seem to have missed that

[MAC]

Thanks for the piccy MAC. Seem to have missed that

anda dialu-alukan

... learnt the pleasantries during ex-pat tenure in Bandar Baru Nilai.

[Dentie]

The work up costs are reduced for the DHB's by one third through the application of Cxbladder which should in itself help DHB management move on it.

One would expect the procedural outline to look similar if not the same to that below which I understand was developed by Pacific Edge closely in consultation with Urologists and the DHB's;

So yes it would seem likely that any poor unfortunate presenting with haematuria should receive at least one Cxbladder test, up to seven if they, heaven forbid, have cancer.

5445

Gee ... just that word "cystocopy" (flexible or rigid) is enough to make me writhe ... and there is no arrow that evades the word!!

I'll be a good boy ...promise!!

[Slam dunk]

These articles provide more detail on the HIH arrangement.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/9706183/Deal-gives-Cxbladder-DHB-access
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/291144/cxbladder-high-nz-breakthrough

[winner69]

Good news and may be there many more regular announcements to keep the shareprice pumping

Interesting the difference between all the financial analysis, from quick back of the envelope to more detailed ones. The range of eventual revenues from less than 1 mill to about 3 mill (without allowance for mortality) if I read them correctly.

Doesn't seem much in the context of the large aspirations. So not really a nz play and the world is where the money is to be made, hopefully. Nz just a springboard for future prosperity.

Still holding for the (inevitable) takeover by some big US player. That's my investment hypotheses.

But until that happens more announcements please to keep the price going up - more fun that way instead of holding dead money in hope of the takeover.

[winner69]

Courtesy of Hawkeye on the ATM thread ;)
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific-edge-gets-dhb-support-cxbladder-db-151683u

One of those who added a comment obviously thinks that that HIH is a waste of taxpayers money

Never mind as they as they think the 'proven' PEB is great that is that matters

[Harvey Specter]

Interesting the difference between all the financial analysis, from quick back of the envelope to more detailed ones. The range of eventual revenues from less than 1 mill to about 3 mill (without allowance for mortality) if I read them correctly.

Doesn't seem much in the context of the large aspirations. So not really a nz play and the world is where the money is to be made, hopefully. Nz just a springboard for future prosperity.Good point. I wonder why they didn't think of that and build an even larger testing facility in a larger country like the US, and enter agreements with companies to do tests in the country with the highest bladder concentration like Spain? :)

I assume they will also target the Australian market, which is 10 times bigger, and the Ozzies will only be too happy to post their piss to the NZ testing facility???

[Minerbarejet]

Good point. I wonder why they didn't think of that and build an even larger testing facility in a larger country like the US, and enter agreements with companies to do tests in the country with the highest bladder concentration like Spain? :)

I assume they will also target the Australian market, which is 10 times bigger, and the Ozzies will only be too happy to post their piss to the NZ testing facility???
I believe that Oryzon is the outfit licensed for Spain and Healthscope for Australia. Healthscope has its own laboratory approved by Pacific Edge in Australia. I think that they did the right thing by building a lab of sufficient size to handle the current forecast uptakes. A more rapid uptake will produce more revenue for additional labs if needed.

[baller18]

Still a lot of sellers at 1.74. Think we'll see 2 bux with medicare?

[baller18]

Umean sellers will disappear right before opening? More sellers ar 1.72 now

Gotcha u meant sellers will eventually disappear

[baller18]

Only 25 mins into the day...
First day after the announcement, who knows what will happen

[Mista_Trix]

Locked article on the NBR;
www.nbr.co.nz/article/why-pacific-edge-sees-itself-guinea-pig-better-healthcare-db-p-151703

Anyone got access who could summarise??
Thanks :)

[angrytoenail]

Locked article on the NBR;
www.nbr.co.nz/article/why-pacific-edge-sees-itself-guinea-pig-better-healthcare-db-p-151703 (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/why-pacific-edge-sees-itself-guinea-pig-better-healthcare-db-p-151703)

Anyone got access who could summarise??
Thanks :)

Here you go:



Ask David Darling to quantify financially what it means to have CxBladder adopted by the main district health boards (DHBs) and he remains guarded.

But the Pacific Edge [NZX: PEB (https://nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/PEB)] chief executive reckons having the backing of government agency (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific-edge-gets-dhb-support-cxbladder-db-151683)Health Innovation Hub (HIH) for his company’s bladder cancer detection system is a tipping point for faster, better and sharper healthcare in New Zealand.

HIH has signed an agreement to fast track the introduction of Pacific Edge’s CxBladder technology to the four main DHBs, which cover half this country’s population.

The agreement is part of a move by the Ministry of Health to help push new technology into the mainstream, a process that is invariably bogged down by the clunky nature of the health system, Mr Darling says.

“This is recognition by the ministry that new technology just doesn’t get into these DHBs and the advantages and benefits to the New Zealand healthcare system are not being actioned because of this slow pathway in,” he says.

“We now have a dedicated agent on our product in each of those key jurisdictions and hopefully we will see a lot of these challenges that we’ve been running up against removed from our process.”

Pacific Edge's Cx-bladder uses a non-invasive urine sample for testing. It has certified labs in Pennsylvania and Dunedin that can respectively process up to 260,000 and 35,000 tests annually.

Being the guinea pig

The next step, Mr Darling says, may be to have the testing tool mandatorily accepted as the standard of care in New Zealand. That would give the company enormous marketing power in the US.

“That’s another happening and something we are working on,” Mr Darling says.

What he can say is that the product has already been evaluated by most DHBs and been validated through 200 patient user programmes.

“So it’s not about whether we want it, it’s about who pays and how we get it into the system.”

“We talk about wading through treacle and while it's nice and sweet, it’s damn hard work.

“The great thing for us now is there is a strong push coming from all around New Zealand and we are genuinely the guinea pig for this process because we are such a cute, clean technology with lots of upside.

“So they want to use this technology to change the processes to make the system faster sharper, better.”

Big savings

Mr Darling says CxBladder has the ability to deliver “significant savings in time and expense” for DHBs.

“If we are able to segregate one patient who doesn’t need a full workup, then the direct cost recovery to the DHB could be in excess of several thousand dollars.”

Then there are indirect costs such as the reallocation of resources – some patients are in queues for up to three months, he says.

The new Cxbladder diagnostic test costs around about $320, while a conventional full, invasive clinical test in New Zealand can cost between $1750 and $2200.

HIH was recently formed, with a mandate to enable technology commercialisation into and out of the country’s four largest DHBs.

HIH chief executive Frances Guyett says identifying and forming strategic relationships with key external partners to accelerate commercialisation by enabling access to DHBs is one of the HIH’s key objectives.

[stoploss]

you are probably right that trading high does not show up on the asb charts just another reason why I need to change to direct broking.:)

just for good order traded to 1.76 on FEb 3.

[Slam dunk]

Here you go:

Like this part in particular

Being the guinea pig

The next step, Mr Darling says, may be to have the testing tool mandatorily accepted as the standard of care in New Zealand. That would give the company enormous marketing power in the US.

“That’s another happening and something we are working on,” Mr Darling says.

[winner69]

Like this part in particular

Being the guinea pig

The next step, Mr Darling says, may be to have the testing tool mandatorily accepted as the standard of care in New Zealand. That would give the company enormous marketing power in the US.

“That’s another happening and something we are working on,” Mr Darling says.

but this is the nicest bit

....because we are such a cute, clean technology with lots of upside.

How sweet, I just love cute things

[MAC]

Like this part in particular

Being the guinea pig

The next step, Mr Darling says, may be to have the testing tool mandatorily accepted as the standard of care in New Zealand. That would give the company enormous marketing power in the US.

“That’s another happening and something we are working on,” Mr Darling says.

You're on the money Slam Dunk, this will be worth more to PEB than the few millions in revenues they will extract from the four or five million people inhabiting our humble islands.

The ability of Pacific Edge to hopefully demonstrate precedence internationally of the inclusion of Cxbladder into a national 'gold standard' is really the significant potential outcome of this relationship with the HIH.

It bodes well too for the ‘hot housing’ of the other pipeline products here also, hopefully Cxcolorectal becomes the next HIH agreement sometime this year.

[Harvey Specter]

Personally I like this one:


We talk about wading through treacle and while it's nice and sweet, it’s damn hard work.

With quotes like that, and an increasing share price, they will get lots of news coverage, just like Drury does for XRO.

[clip]

What were you saying about announcements coming in 2's moosie? (apologies for big post below, announcement copied)

https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/246862
BOP & Lakes Urologists adopt Cxbladder

12:35pm, 11 Feb 2014 | GENERAL

11 February 2014
BOP and Lakes Urologists adopt Cxbladder
Patients presenting with symptoms of bladder cancer and those under surveillance of bladder cancer in the Bay of Plenty and Lakes District Health Board regions will now be evaluated as part of their clinical program, with Pacific Edge’s non-invasive urine sampling Cxbladderdetect test.
Bay of Plenty and Lakes District urologists are the latest to join the list of New Zealand clinicians and DHB’s who are being signed by Pacific edge Diagnostics to offer their patients Cxbladderdetect. Cxbladder is a superior technology with its ability to detect nearly 100 per cent of urinary tract carcinomas , in preference to cytology for the detection and monitoring of patients who may have bladder cancer.
Like MidCentral DHB, which began using Cxbladderdetect in June, BOP urologists will use Cxbladderdetect to evaluate patients presenting with blood in the urine (haematuria) as part of their clinical regime. This new strategy is expected to involve local GPs (the patient’s primary point of contact when symptoms occur) using Cxbladderdetect to help prioritise those patients who need to be seen urgently. They will also be able to identify low risk patients who do not require a full clinical work-up for bladder cancer, saving the public health system considerable associated expense, not to mention the inconvenience to the patients. Less than one in twenty of those patients with micro-haematuria are found to need further treatment for bladder cancer.
Pacific Edge is a Dunedin-based cancer diagnostic company leading in the development and commercialisation of molecular diagnostic tests. Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David Darling says there are significant potential savings to be made in the New Zealand health budget if all DHBs adopt Cxbladderdetect for the early evaluation and further analysis of patients presenting with haematuria.
“Many New Zealanders may have heard Sir Peter Leitch talk on television last year about the ease of use and high degree of confidence he and his clinician had in Cxbladderdetect (http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/nz-celebrity-helps-cancer-cause-video-5234521) for monitoring his recovery from bladder cancer”. Those benefits are now being made available to nearly half a million New Zealanders [488,280 : pop numbers from MOH website] within the BOP, Lakes regions and the Mid Central DHB.

“Cxbladderdetect will allow clinicians in these three regions to provide better clinical outcomes for patients referred for urological evaluation and contribute considerable efficiencies for patients and healthcare providers, from its use.”
Bay of Plenty urologist, Mark Fraundorfer says that now is the right time to start using Cxbladderdetect. “Pacific Edge have gathered the clinical data and published in a peer reviewed journal, and the superior performance over cytolgy is clear. BOP (and Lakes) urologists have used Cxbladderdetect in a variety of clinivcal settings in both public and our private clinics over the last nine months, confirming the performance of the technology. Cxbladderdetect provides better information about the patients being referred to urologists and allows us to increase our focus on the patients that need further evaluation and treatment, and will avoid a significant number of unnecessary procedures. This is a good outcome for both the patients and the public health system as a whole.”
A recently completed clinical user programme involving 178 patients undertaken by Waitemata District Health Board and Urology Associates in conjunction with Canterbury DHB has confirmed the successful results of a multi-centre international peer reviewed study of 485 patients published in the prestigious American Journal of Urology in September 2012. Both studies showed that Cxbladderdetect identified correctly nearly 100 per cent of tumours of concern to clinicians, including those that cytology and several that cystoscopy did not identify. The results of the two centre New Zealand user programme are expected to be formally published later this year.
For clinicians and DHBs focused on providing the very best cost effective healthcare for New Zealanders, Cxbladderdetect provides a number of significant advantages that have the potential to change clinical practice and lower the overall cost of managing the patient’s disease:
• The Cxbladderdetect Urine Sampling System (USS) can be sent directly to the patient at home or to their GP clinic, thereby reducing waiting times to see a specialist within the public hospital system.
• Cxbladderdetect provides an accurate and cost effective way of evaluating patients presenting with blood in their urine (haematuria), before they get to the clinic and
• Cxbladderdetect is non-invasive and enhances a patient’s compliance with their cancer management regime as defined by the urologist.
For further information please contact
David Darling
Chief Executive Officer
Pacific Edge Limited
P: +64 (3) 4795800

After a quick skim this point seems prominent to me, "Like MidCentral DHB, which began using Cxbladderdetect in June, BOP urologists will use Cxbladderdetect to evaluate patients presenting with blood in the urine (haematuria) as part of their clinical regime. This new strategy is expected to involve local GPs (the patient’s primary point of contact when symptoms occur) using Cxbladderdetect to help prioritise those patients who need to be seen urgently."

I would have thought getting the tests in at the GP level would result in higher number of tests being utilized quicker as opposed to just when they have been referred to DHB clinics/hospitals etc

[whatsup]

the real importance of this ann is the confirmation from dhb's that cxbladder is the test to run with , imho all dhb's (world wide ) will follow this practise ! .

another brick in the wall !!!

[Harvey Specter]

I would have thought getting the tests in at the GP level would result in higher number of tests being utilized quicker as opposed to just when they have been referred to DHB clinics/hospitals etcI read that as the DHB wont take a referral unless they have done the test, as it is used to prioritize patients. Therefore very positive as it means it will be pushed out fast.

What does concern me is if MidCentral has been using since June, why were there so few sales in the September update.

[Xerof]

It's all about momentum, isn't it? As we have collectively determined, it's not a lot of revenue, when compared to the golden fleece, but we have momentum. The first pebble has hit the lake surface - waiting for the ripples now

[Slam dunk]

Very excited by this. Particularly this part

"Like MidCentral DHB, which began using Cxbladderdetect in June, BOP urologists will use Cxbladderdetect to evaluate patients presenting with blood in the urine (haematuria) as part of their clinical regime. This new strategy is expected to involve local GPs (the patient’s primary point of contact when symptoms occur) using Cxbladderdetect to help prioritise those patients who need to be seen urgently. They will also be able to identify low risk patients who do not require a full clinical work-up for bladder cancer, saving the public health system considerable associated expense, not to mention the inconvenience to the patients."

I went to a PEB presentation at First NZC late last year where David talked about their intention to try to get CxBladder to be used by primary care doctors (GPs), which naturally means a lot more tests. It would appear they're having some success achieving this. Awesome!!

[Slam dunk]

I actually think this latest announcement is bigger than the previous one because of their success in getting in at the GP level.

[MAC]

Pacific Edge has been pursuing a commercialisation programme since 2011, this programme required the completion of clinical trials, regulatory approvals, user group programmes, the commissioning of two laboratories, and a target of achieving first US sales in 2013.

Most investors I believe would agree that Pacific Edge have performed very well in meeting all these objectives thoroughly, on schedule and under budget.

Now we have been presented with a five year plan for sales growth in the US, NZ, Australia, Spain and Asia, and the diversification into four product streams for Cxbladder.

Again most investors seem to retain confidence in Pacific Edge because they have a history of meeting objectives. This is not ‘hype’, its credibility.

My DCF suggests Pacific Edge are fairly valued at present if only US Cxbladder(detect) revenue streams are considered.

The challenge for intso’s and analysts when PEB become NZ50 listed, will be similar to my own at present, in valuing the other forward revenue streams.

The greatest benefit of the NZ50 listing, as I see it, is that institutional analysts will gain better direct access to PEB than the rest of us have in assessing and valuing these streams.

Forward revenue streams to be assessed for a full 2014 valuation workup;

Cxbladder(detect) – US
Cxbladder(detect) – Spain
Cxbladder(detect) - Asia
Cxbladder(triage) – US, Spain, NZ, Australia, Asia
Cxbladder(predict) - US, Spain, NZ, Australia, Asia
Cxcolorectal – also likely to be launched in 2014

Pacific edge is undervalued at present, the difficulty is in accurately determining by how much without sufficient information on these other streams being available to most of us.

In addition, if PEB achieve ‘tens of thousands of tests’ in 2014 it may well bring forward discounted cashflows ahead of what analysts, including myself, are presently allowing for.

Bring forward cashflows would allow PEB to progress the pipeline products earlier, thus creating a compounding growth effect.

[pierre]

s#$t forgive me my basic business head tells me if I had a business with a client that was becoming a commercial customer I would hope they are paying for it but I guess companies that are trying to create HYPE would not wont to differentiate between a customer paying or not..

Snapiti - could you confirm whether you are a disappointed non-holder of PEB - or are just trying to ensure that those who do hold keep their feet on the ground about the relatively constant flow of good news announcements until they're backed with some real $$ of revenue.

Discl - hold over 300k at 71c average

[In4a$]

s#$t forgive me my basic business head tells me if I had a business with a client that was becoming a commercial customer I would hope they are paying for it but I guess companies that are trying to create HYPE would not wont to differentiate between a customer paying or not..

If investors cant see that some of the announcements from PEB are just feeding the hype then you should take off your rose tinted glasses.
Key word I think is "intial test" no doubt some will be freebies in the first instance as DHB's ect try it out. One would imagine this will only be for a short time. Not unusual to give freebies to get products moving. I'm not concerned.

[hilskin]

Pacific Edge has been pursuing a commercialisation programme since 2011, this programme required the completion of clinical trials, regulatory approvals, user group programmes, the commissioning of two laboratories, and a target of achieving first US sales in 2013.

Most investors I believe would agree that Pacific Edge have performed very well in meeting all these objectives thoroughly, on schedule and under budget.

Now we have been presented with a five year plan for sales growth in the US, NZ, Australia, Spain and Asia, and the diversification into four product streams for Cxbladder.

Again most investors seem to retain confidence in Pacific Edge because they have a history of meeting objectives. This is not ‘hype’, its credibility.

My DCF suggests Pacific Edge are fairly valued at present if only US Cxbladder(detect) revenue streams are considered.

The challenge for intso’s and analysts when PEB become NZ50 listed, will be similar to my own at present, in valuing the other forward revenue streams.

The greatest benefit of the NZ50 listing, as I see it, is that institutional analysts will gain better direct access to PEB than the rest of us have in assessing and valuing these streams.

Forward revenue streams to be assessed for a full 2014 valuation workup;

Cxbladder(detect) – US
Cxbladder(detect) – Spain
Cxbladder(detect) - Asia
Cxbladder(triage) – US, Spain, NZ, Australia, Asia
Cxbladder(predict) - US, Spain, NZ, Australia, Asia
Cxcolorectal – also likely to be launched in 2014

Pacific edge is undervalued at present, the difficulty is in accurately determining by how much without sufficient information on these other streams being available to most of us.

In addition, if PEB achieve ‘tens of thousands of tests’ in 2014 it may well bring forward discounted cashflows ahead of what analysts, including myself, are presently allowing for.

Bring forward cashflows would allow PEB to progress the pipeline products earlier, thus creating a compounding growth effect.

Great post, as always. Thanks Mac

[alistair85]

So much for this closing in on the $2 mark... Couldn't of been more wrong with the price finishing lower today

[Wolf]

So much for this closing in on the $2 mark... Couldn't of been more wrong with the price finishing lower today

haha please don't tell me you bought shares on the ramping?

[alistair85]

No Wolf. Have been holding for quite some time now. Just find it interesting reading back a few pages to see what people say at one stage then come back and say in hindsight.

[Lost in space]

mmmm, OK mate, seems we are probably not going to get on, so shall leave it there. Wish you well for the remainder of your PEB holding!


Notice some posters recurrent theme? Guess the need to act as the beacon of light in the midst of investor darkness. Becomes rather tiring but hey some have the need to act out the saviour and keep us naive and helpless investors from falling into the pit

[Minerbarejet]

Patience is a virtue
Impatience is a sin
Why not stick you feet up
And have another gin
:)

[Goldstein]

Patience is a virtue
Impatience is a sin
Why not stick you feet up
And have another gin
:)

Why that's the best investment advice I've heard in quite a while.

[Xerof]

"It remains that action will remove the doubts that theory cannot solve.

so only in pinning his friend's tail back on could Pooh have discovered that he would, in fact, be donkey-kicked in the face."

:mellow:

[gypsy]

PEB has just been on T.V One news

[nextbigthing]

Are we going to see a big leap in price with announcements such as medicare approval etc? Do you think most of this was already priced in? Or do you feel that this will be a significant derisking event that will cause investors to flood in, in anticipation of the 10% market share becoming just the beginning?

I guess we've seen the answer now. Priced in already in a forward looking market.

Disc still holding since 50c

[baller18]

Strange, a credibility announcement brings out more sellers than ever? weird how the market works...

[MAC]

Strange, a credibility announcement brings out more sellers than ever? weird how the market works...

It’s the strategic events or those that de-risk forward cashflows that matter.

The New Zealand market is small in the big picture, but I do like the formation of a HIH hot house type process for Cxbladder and potentially the pipeline products, that could be big deal not just for PEB but for other biotech companies coming to the fore.

The big events this year are likley to be the new product launches Cxbladder(predict), Cxbladder(triage) and possibly Cxcolorectal, none of which IMHO opinion are at all priced in. Also the new market entries into Spain and Asia on a similar basis. A final medicare sign up may de-risk for many also.

[Harvey Specter]

Strange, a credibility announcement brings out more sellers than ever? weird how the market works...mmm - why sell when the investment de-risks a bit more.

While it didn't justify a jump, there were no gains for people to be locking in.

[baller18]

Yup exactly my thoughts, all these sellers could have sold at this price for some time but jst not the volume.

[benjitara]

The latest announcement is actually very positive in terms of it's potential pathways into the market via GP'S. If PEB hadn't been looking to go into the USA and had been operating in NZ only this would be seen as a real green light announcement. The New Zealand branch of turnover will be a good sighter for growth potential in sales though so I'm looking forward to seeing how well received it is.

[Mule]

A couple of articles in the ODT in case people missed them:

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/291144/cxbladder-high-nz-breakthrough
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/291297/two-more-boards-using-cancer-tool

[Xerof]

Mr Darling wanted to clarify Monday's separate announcement, that Pacific Edge had signed an agreement directly with Government commercial entity Health Innovation Hub, which is mandated to get new health technology into four district health boards.HIH will now negotiate with the health boards of Auckland, Waitemata, Counties-Manukau and Canterbury, covering a population of more than 2.2 million, for the future use of Cxbladder.





Paper Tiger spotted the key words in the original announcement, now clarified by DD in one of those articles Mule has posted. Explains the price action IMO

Well done PT!!

My bladder is also half full - think it might be treacle though - patience peeps!!

[Trader101]

Good to see the Brokers comments. Inclusion in the NZX50 will lead to more investment research from Brokers (both in NZ and overseas).

DISC: long term holder since Sept 2009

[nextbigthing]

Really?? I'm not sure weve seen the answer at all. Your question was "Are we going to see a big leap in price with announcements such as medicare approval etc?" and we haven't seen any announcements re medicare (or anything similar in nature, remembering these DHB announcements are nothing in terms of potential tests compared to medicare of Medicaid). You can't lump these recent NZ based agreements with those that may be made with medicare of Medicaid

I personally believe there will be a significant jump in price should PEB come to an agreement with medicare and/or medicade. Of course some on this may be priced in, but certainly not all.

Sure, I agree. Just trying to gauge peoples thoughts on what the announcements will do to the price.

I suspect a lot has been factored in already and this was shown by a positive but relatively minor announcement having virtually no price impact. Perhaps then the medicare announcents etc won't cause as bigger price increases as people are hoping either?

As MAC says, I feel other products haven't been factored in at all yet. Any announcements on those fronts I feel would be very positive.

I appreciate annoyingly this is opinion not fact but it is based upon market observation.

[Bobcat.]

Yeah you may be right - certainly hard to gauge how much is already priced in......people have been expecting or are expecting Medicaid and Medicare related announcement so to some extent they must be priced in, just how much is the question...I expect a big jump if they can get them on board.

Buy on rumour, sell on fact.

[baller18]

Ain't a rumour till medicare rejects PEB, ain't a fact when PEB hasn't signed medicare.
However, as MAC has stated, on PEB's website, they have indicated they are a medicare provider.
Seems like the fact definitely outweighs the rumour huh?

If PEB signs up medicare and Medicaid wouldn't the market penetration be more than 10%?
Considering they cover close to 100million people in the states which is 1/3 of the population, therefore, wouldn't they cover 1/3 of the cases as well?

[tunsbro]

Another PR

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/235902/bladder-cancer-deal

[Intel]

Ain't a rumour till medicare rejects PEB, ain't a fact when PEB hasn't signed medicare.
However, as MAC has stated, on PEB's website, they have indicated they are a medicare provider.
Seems like the fact definitely outweighs the rumour huh?

If PEB signs up medicare and Medicaid wouldn't the market penetration be more than 10%?
Considering they cover close to 100million people in the states which is 1/3 of the population, therefore, wouldn't they cover 1/3 of the cases as well?

Medicaid is no where near as important as Medicare. Medicare is the provider of health care coverage to the over 65s in America where the main incidence of bladder cancer will be (circa 75% of cases).. I looked at this a while ago, but the great thing about laboratory diagnostics is that they are 100% covered under Part B of medicare. This means patients shouldn't do need to make co payments or need insurance top ups if they exceed their annual deductibles to get the tests....

And to answer the question. Medicare should cover circa 75% of the addressable market.. Hence the importance of that deal

[geo]

[QUOTE=baller18;461224]Ain't a rumour till medicare rejects PEB, ain't a fact when PEB hasn't signed medicare.
However, as MAC has stated, on PEB's website, they have indicated they are a medicare provider.
Seems like the fact definitely outweighs the rumour huh?

If PEB signs up medicare and Medicaid wouldn't the market penetration be more than 10%?
Considering they cover close to 100million people in the states which is 1/3 of the population, therefore, wouldn't they cover 1/3 of the cases as well?[/QU

No That's like saying they have one in two people covered NZ does not mean one in two will need to be tested.

[Intel]

http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladder-cancer-advocacy-network/discussion/cxbladder-test/

back to the bladder cancer advocacy network board. The BCAN staff has issued a piece on CX Bladder... Hopefully a few more patients will puch their physicians,

Unless of course BCAN_staff is a pseudonym for a ST member..

[Minerbarejet]

This tells us quite a bit.Chief executive David Darling said the two deals meant the product could potentially be available to nearly three million New Zealanders.

"The key to this is that these organisations, particularly the urologists, are very keen to use our technology," Mr Darling said.
The deals were a step towards its goal of having Cxbladder mandated to be part of the standard of care, he said.
Does anyone know to what standard urologists are trained in NZ? Are they trained to the same level as US Urologists, less trained or better trained? If they are better trained or are the equal, then their US equivalents would probably be disposed to the same level of keenness once the potential is placed before them.
Part of the standard of care = clinical pathway does it not?

[baller18]

No That's like saying they have one in two people covered NZ does not mean one in two will need to be tested.

DD said, cxbladder will be working towards it being mandatory to be part of the standard care, so therefore one in 2 would be tested, time will tell...

[klid]

I think the investors want too see the product becoming mandatory to be used in NZ, it was mentioned by the CEO that'd give them immense commercial power in the US.

[Casino]

http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladder-cancer-advocacy-network/discussion/cxbladder-test/

back to the bladder cancer advocacy network board. The BCAN staff has issued a piece on CX Bladder... Hopefully a few more patients will puch their physicians,

Unless of course BCAN_staff is a pseudonym for a ST member..

Bloody snapiti leaving his trails everywhere.

[Minerbarejet]

What! No announcement from Pacific Edge today?

What is the world coming to.

I dont know - cant rely on anything these days.

[karen1]

maybe they realized the last lot of hype did not achieve what they wanted. lol:D

I fail to see where you get the impression that PEB is in the business of hype.

In the time I have been interested in this extremely well run company, I have never, at any stage, seen or heard anything that would, in my opinion, come anywhere near something that could be construed as hype.

I have watched every interview/video I could find where David Darling has participated, and he has never struck me as anything other than a genuine man, in the business of doing good business. He always appears to simply state the facts, always has full answers for any questions put to him (which tells me how well he knows the business), and in fact I have often thought he never seems to get excited - no flag waving, no pumping, just the facts.

As for typing PEB and RAK in the same sentence, again, I fail to see how you can even begin to liken the two. RAK has been, for several years, an extremely poorly run business, and it is now accepted fact that there has been more than enough hype and rhetoric uttered from those involved in that company.

If in fact you do hold PEB, I do not understand why you take opportunity frequently to post such derogatory statements, which simply beggar belief.

I do, however, greatly appreciate posts from those who are very well researched in PEB, and wish all holders a very satisfying future with PEB.

[klid]

Hmmm I don't know about comparing with Rakon. Isn't that run by a bunch of brothers and stuff... kinda like a family business? With a group of knowledgeable investors well positioned to do good things with the company but unable to because of the shareholdings of these founders and such.

Whereas this company completely different. Human lives: saving, biotech, very interesting stuff! Much more exciting that crystal oscillators and the like.... anyone can make that stuff too.

[In4a$]

I agree with snapiti a bit. Heard of people going overdraft to buy PEB at todays prices. This business is still not a certainy, things could go wrong, nothings gauranteed. For those of us that got in early the risks are small. Those buying 20k shares today with borrowed money have fallen for the "hype" and taking a big risk. Tread cautiosly I say, PEB is not making profits yet.
Disc: Been a long term holder, see risks but also see long term potential.

[Xerof]

Given the share price reaction to the recent announcement me thinks that some investors see these latest announcement as pure hype.

yep, it's up about 4% from where it was before the announcement. There was no hype in the announcement, but one needed to read it carefully to fully understand the content. It is another ticked box on their long road to commercialisation, a small but important step, hence the market has not got too carried away and has settled back to where buyers are happy to soak up the selling. Unfortunately, the unrealised mega profits most shareholders have in some form or other, tends to prey on minds/burn holes in pockets, and so there will probably always be a constant supply of shares.

but I would hope you are smart enough to see the price action is accumulation from off-screen, each and (almost) every day. Plenty of overt sell orders, which just keep getting taken or absorbed. The buying is not really backing off, hope you understand that snapiti.

[Bobcat.]

Head and shoulders pattern on the S&P500 and DJIA will drop markets sometime over the next week, IMO. It's highly unlikely that new highs will be reached, and so watch out when the Bears start making a comeback. PEB will not be immune to it.

If you're going into debt to purchase these now, I would say that's reckless. But then it's not my money, is it. Actually it's not your money either, is it.

Only the foolhardy invest at the top of a market, using money they cannot afford to lose.

BC

[winner69]

Pacific Edge has been pursuing a commercialisation programme since 2011, this programme required the completion of clinical trials, regulatory approvals, user group programmes, the commissioning of two laboratories, and a target of achieving first US sales in 2013.

Most investors I believe would agree that Pacific Edge have performed very well in meeting all these objectives thoroughly, on schedule and under budget.

Now we have been presented with a five year plan for sales growth in the US, NZ, Australia, Spain and Asia, and the diversification into four product streams for Cxbladder.

Again most investors seem to retain confidence in Pacific Edge because they have a history of meeting objectives. This is not ‘hype’, its credibility.

My DCF suggests Pacific Edge are fairly valued at present if only US Cxbladder(detect) revenue streams are considered.

The challenge for intso’s and analysts when PEB become NZ50 listed, will be similar to my own at present, in valuing the other forward revenue streams.

The greatest benefit of the NZ50 listing, as I see it, is that institutional analysts will gain better direct access to PEB than the rest of us have in assessing and valuing these streams.

Forward revenue streams to be assessed for a full 2014 valuation workup;

Cxbladder(detect) – US
Cxbladder(detect) – Spain
Cxbladder(detect) - Asia
Cxbladder(triage) – US, Spain, NZ, Australia, Asia
Cxbladder(predict) - US, Spain, NZ, Australia, Asia
Cxcolorectal – also likely to be launched in 2014

Pacific edge is undervalued at present, the difficulty is in accurately determining by how much without sufficient information on these other streams being available to most of us.

In addition, if PEB achieve ‘tens of thousands of tests’ in 2014 it may well bring forward discounted cashflows ahead of what analysts, including myself, are presently allowing for.

Bring forward cashflows would allow PEB to progress the pipeline products earlier, thus creating a compounding growth effect.

PEB valuation = somewhere near your DCF value + premium for (inevitable) takeover

Only if things all go to plan ....could be a big dunger as well worth 20 cents

[Xerof]

Soooo, winner


what HASN'T gone to plan so far? Could be a dunger indeed, but progress to date as laid out by the company has been DIFOTIS

[Minerbarejet]

Bang on, Karen, what is it? Media circus, exaggeration usually TIC, a clever marketing strategy that makes people think that they have to have something, or none of these?
I think none therefore no hype. They are trying to get traction with something that is of great benefit to people suffering from bladder cancer or suspected of it. That should not be put in the same bracket as the latest morepork fad of some dingbat app or useless 10 minute tech wonder judged as the greatest thing since baked beans by the lowest common denominator of which we are getting more and more. Its much more than that and I will shout it from the highest hills. Wake up you lot, we are at the cusp of a really great NZ company making it for real. Hows that for hype?
:)

[Xerof]

Aw, stop it Miner, you are naughty





but I LIKE it

K Everett, dec'd

[Minerbarejet]

Aw, stop it Miner, you are naughty





but I LIKE it

K Everett, dec'd
What was his girlfriends name, Cupid something, can'tre member. Damn this old age stuff.
:)

[Xerof]

Sid Snot, Captain Kremmen, Marcel Wave, and Angry of Mayfair.

Jeez, he died in 95 of HIV

Melody Bubbles miner?

[winner69]

Soooo, winner


what HASN'T gone to plan so far? Could be a dunger indeed, but progress to date as laid out by the company has been DIFOTIS

Everything seems to have to plan so far ....if that continues PEB valuation is -

Somewhere nearvMacs DCF valuation + premium for takeover

Or

20 cents

That's all I said mate - nothing about things not going to plan so far

[Minerbarejet]

Sid Snot, Captain Kremmen, Marcel Wave, and Angry of Mayfair.

Jeez, he died in 95 of HIV

Melody Bubbles miner?
Yes, shame really, he was a great comedian or I thought so. But what do I know, XXXX.
But back to PEB and it seems to me the only thing that will really poke this along is the sales announcement. Starting from a base of three it wont take much to have a 100% increase - like six.
Think of all the hype if the media gets a hold of 10000% increase in sales, etc. IMHO (tep)

[Snow Leopard]

The one trouble with everything going to plan so far (assuming we do not look to far back at previous plans :))) is that the everything that has gone to plan so far has involved spending money.

It is a different test-tube of urine the bit of the plan that involves making money.

On a different note: Why do people believe that when PEB enters the NZX50 there will be decent research on it, where is the expertise in valuing tech companies in NZ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

May or may not have some PEB shares somewhere :mellow:

[Minerbarejet]

Not everything PT , remember there were three proudly declared sales circa Oct/Nov:)

[Minerbarejet]

[QUOTE]On a different note: Why do people believe that when PEB enters the NZX50 there will be decent research on it, why is the expertise in valuing tech companies in NZ?[QUOTE]

Parochialism.

Also may or may not have some PEB and gave some away I think.

[MAC]

Since when has PEB produced a tool for detecting lung cancer? Have I missed an announcement?

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140129121941.htm

Perhaps they actually really could ?

[Snow Leopard]

Aaah, yes but everyone knows that a combined analysis of two polymorphic enzymes, glutathione S-transferase mu (GST M1) and q (GST T1) and their implication as cancer risk factors was performed in a case-control study of lung and bladder cancers. And, the findings suggest that the GSTM1 null genotype may be associated with susceptibility to lung and urinary bladder cancer in dependence on the exposure to carcinogens in cigarette smoke and that the GSTT1 null genotype is not a critical factor in mediating the risk of lung cancer, but may be associated with an increased susceptibility to bladder cancer. And if, as we know from this site, people blow it out there #R$E then there could also be a heightened risk of Colorectal cancer as well.

Like :t_up:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[karen1]

Like :t_up:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I'll second that! Hancocks, you have a great knack for the written word. Made my day.

[Xerof]

Miner, for the record....Cupid Stunt was the girlfriend. I think she is one of those who have borrowed to buy.......

and me too Mr Magoo, very funny

[Minerbarejet]

:)You are in fine form, Hancocks.

[Minerbarejet]

Miner, for the record....Cupid Stunt was the girlfriend. I think she is one of those who have borrowed to buy.......

and me too Mr Magoo, very funny
Ah that was it, remember him sitting in the interview chair dressed in drag and endlessly crossing and uncrossing his legs while holding himself off the chair. Clever and bloody hilarious.

[jonu]

Aw, stop it Miner, you are naughty





but I LIKE it

K Everett, dec'd

Wasn't that one of Dick Emery's Lines?

[Xerof]

Wasn't that one of Dick Emery's Lines?
oh yeah, you're right. Oh well, Everett was worth remembering anyway

"you are awful....... but I like you"

[jonu]

Sorry for the PEB departure, but I've always remembered "Sid Snot ere" doing his cigarette tossing routine and one actually sticking on his lip at which point he was so surprised he forgot his lines.:ohmy:

[couta1]

A nice bottle of wine?
You have just lost a nice bottle of wine BE,I'm sure Snapiti will enjoy a bottle of an expensive exotic variety:cool:

[winner69]

or if I lose you can choose but the loser has to courier the bottle to the winner at the exspence of the loser. If you agree we have a wager for 1 $250 bottle of wine of the winners choice.

I preferred the options challenge

PEB shareprice not doing much today

We need another announcement

[nextbigthing]

We have an agreement!

This just got interesting!

Penfolds is nice at this time of the year. And any other time of the year.

[winner69]

This just got interesting!

Penfolds is nice at this time of the year. And any other time of the year.

Somebody gave me a bottle of Penfolds Grange last year .... at $700 or whatever I haven't been able to bring myself to open it yet

Might taakr it down to the local wine merchant and see if you wants it for half price or something

[Santiago]

I'd go for a Te Mata Colraine. Anyone want to repeat the bet with me?

[baller18]

Could snapiti and BE settle their matters through private messages?
Once when its all settled, if u's like, can posted up if needed. Much thanks :)

[Santiago]

can you let B&E know where this can be purchased.

http://www.temata.co.nz/wines/details/coleraine/2011/?action=buy

[Joshuatree]

:pChange of rules.
Other members can choose the prize
My suggestions
1/ 1 case of Chateau De Antee Freezux pressed by five naked proctologists
2/ 5cm of column space with the Ferret
3/ Free entry to the 2014 hide and seek championship:t_up::t_up:

[samdaman]

I guess the easiest bet is the one you know you'll win :s

[Nigel]

I guess the easiest bet is the one you know you'll win :s

So basically, I am a PEB shareholder, and have been for some time. Is there anyone willing to enter into a bet that in fact I am NOT a PEB shareholder, as of today's date?

Disc: trying my luck, just in case.

[samdaman]

That's funny I too am also a shareholder willing to bet anyone that I am holding PEB, anyone willing to take those odds?

Disc: If it looks like a duck and sounds like a duck he's probably holding PEB :P

[Xerof]

B_E, are you related to Kenny Everett's girlfriend by any chance?

[Schrodinger]

Can someone enlighten me as to why this thread hasn't been deleted but the SNK one was?

[geo]

totally get what you are saying and are holding tightly onto my remaining shares.
Just believe that there is a bit more risk in this share than most others seem too.
In all fairness the RAK announcements were very well concieved and used the cant say to much about who we sell to as it is top secret which seemed to excite the market even more and speculation was rife that RAK's products are so good they are top secret.

Have to agree, to date, that the company has delivered on it's commercialisation plan
Anyways you all have had to listen to my opinions about PEB way to much so I shall keep quiet on this thread for a while to give you all a break :eek2:

Snapiti thought you were going to keep quiet on this thread and give us all a break for a while. Your while dose not last that long maybe you think we all miss you???

[MAC]

How about this one Hancocks,

http://www.cancernetwork.com/genitourinary-cancers/cannabis-linked-decreased-bladder-cancer-risk

Some smokers are more equal than others.

[Minerbarejet]

Presumably you could develop lung cancer instead.
Or both and chuck in colorectal as you say.:scared:

[croesus]

Struggling .. with out news.... $1.53 tomorrow

[couta1]

BUOTE=Brighton_Early;461669]Or... $0.99? :)[/QUOTE]
B E shouldnt you be hoping its $1.99 to help pay for that wine you owe Snapiti:cool:

[Snow Leopard]

Or... $0.99? :)
In which case even I would probably either top up or join the register depending upon whether I currently hold some or not

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Miffed that no one has offered me a bottle to find out whether I hold or not.

[blobbles]

Struggling .. with out news.... $1.53 tomorrow

Well only a couple of days ago they gave us great news....

Aren't some people getting a bit jumpy here? This is a long term hold with $100m revenue target in 4+ more years. If they make it to that point, we are looking at EPS of 30c with profit somewhere around 15c P/S. But that is in almost 5 years time.

Unsure why people think such large complex and carefully considered contracts can/should be negotiated in the first 12 months of sales. The CMS/Veterans association contracts could come in 2 or 3 years from now and we will still probably be well on target. And that is the timeframe I have in mind regarding PEB and with revenue targets as they are. I would hope most people are thinking the same.

I recommend people stop watching the price like hawks, sit back and relax. Recommend that if you are happy with your position, the company and the risk, let your shares sit for a year or two. Keep up with news but PEB isn't an investment where you should be refreshing to check share prices daily (or probably weekly for that matter). Good things will come to those who wait.

[pierre]

In which case even I would probably either top up or join the register depending upon whether I currently hold some or not

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Miffed that no one has offered me a bottle to find out whether I hold or not.

PT- You must know that every ST member would love to offer you a bottle of wine - whether you hold PEB or not. It's only the cost of transportation to that distant part of the world you live in and the severe risk of breakage in transit that holds us back.

Meilleurs vœux
Pierre

[warthog]

Or... $0.99? :)

And you guys get jumpy when the discussion gets off-topic.

Brighton_Early, you're so freaking concerned about your time and other people not wasting it yet you spend your life dribbling over other people's ST posts.

WHERE ARE YOU GROUPIE, TROLL-THREAD NAZIS?

The hog doesn't hold PEB any more. Thanks to buyers over $1.70 for taking the risk. The hog might be in again sometime at more acceptable levels. To anyone thinking of getting into PEB, the hog has some "for what it's worth" advice. Read through these threads and see how much bullshît ramping from Brighton_Early and friends is going on before you think of doing anything.

Some say "well nobody listens to it, who in their right mind is affected by this infantile behaviour? Just ignore it".

Good question. Well, there are some people here wanting to actually discuss investment/speculation.

But why the ego-stroking, self-effacing crap in the first place?

Answer: psychological need. These people lack confidence to the extent that they have a chronic, deep need to challenge and attack people who don't agree with them. Witness the one-upmanship crap of late with Brighton_Early's rubbish "option offer" for PEB at $2 by end March (which for the record never actually led to a concrete "offer" that could be accepted or refused, but led to Brighton_Early "threatening" to post private discussion material on the public channel ← NB: complete and utter lack of ethics, so Brighton_Early is clearly neither principled nor professional) and this juvenile banter about whether somebody holds PEB or not.

WHO !^#&*^% CARES?

The huge jump in monkey chatter on ST suggests the hog should call increasing noise as the TREND and join Phaedrus.

Who? Well some of you kiddies may well ask.

[baller18]

whoa, easy with the vent....

[blockhead]

Come on you jokers

Grow up eh ??

The forum is for discussing the merit of various shares, a little mirth is ok but you lot have lost the plot.

[geo]

And you guys get jumpy when the discussion gets off-topic.

Brighton_Early, you're so freaking concerned about your time and other people not wasting it yet you spend your life dribbling over other people's ST posts.

WHERE ARE YOU GROUPIE, TROLL-THREAD NAZIS?

The hog doesn't hold PEB any more. Thanks to buyers over $1.70 for taking the risk. The hog might be in again sometime at more acceptable levels. To anyone thinking of getting into PEB, the hog has some "for what it's worth" advice. Read through these threads and see how much bullshît ramping from Brighton_Early and friends is going on before you think of doing anything.

Some say "well nobody listens to it, who in their right mind is affected by this infantile behaviour? Just ignore it".

Good question. Well, there are some people here wanting to actually discuss investment/speculation.

But why the ego-stroking, self-effacing crap in the first place?

Answer: psychological need. These people lack confidence to the extent that they have a chronic, deep need to challenge and attack people who don't agree with them. Witness the one-upmanship crap of late with Brighton_Early's rubbish "option offer" for PEB at $2 by end March (which for the record never actually led to a concrete "offer" that could be accepted or refused, but led to Brighton_Early "threatening" to post private discussion material on the public channel ← NB: complete and utter lack of ethics, so Brighton_Early is clearly neither principled nor professional) and this juvenile banter about whether somebody holds PEB or not.

WHO !^#&*^% CARES?

The huge jump in monkey chatter on ST suggests the hog should call increasing noise as the TREND and join Phaedrus.

Who? Well some of you kiddies may well ask.


Well said Warthog you have a lovely way with words.

[Bobcat.]

A..and join Phaedrus.

Who? Well some of you kiddies may well ask.

I remember that a few years ago Phaedrus was a real asset to us on ST. I missed what happened to him. Has he re-badged, or left ST completely?

[MAC]

Anyone looking for a nice job based in Boston as a Pacific Edge territorial sales manager, tea anyone ?

http://www.linkedin.com/jobs2/view/11558920?trk=job_view_similar_jobs

[winner69]

I remember that a few years ago Phaedrus was a real asset to us on ST. I missed what happened to him. Has he re-badged, or left ST completely?

Made his fortune and set sail on his yacht to see the world ......I only hope he got out of the habit of drawing trend lines ....don't go too well on nautical charts

[Whipmoney]

Made his fortune and set sail on his yacht to see the world ......I only hope he got out of the habit of drawing trend lines ....don't go too well on nautical charts

How long was he around for..? How well did he do?

(Looking for inspiration)

[bottlerboy]

How long was he around for..? How well did he do?

(Looking for inspiration)
If you do a thread search and read some of his old posts I'm sure you will be inspired!
He was implacably logical but still pretty patient with those that dared to disagree - although I think he finally gave up on Snoopy!! (see the TUA thread where Snoopy continued to argue the merit of buying on the way down)

[Whipmoney]

If you do a thread search and read some of his old posts I'm sure you will be inspired!
He was implacably logical but still pretty patient with those that dared to disagree - although I think he finally gave up on Snoopy!! (see the TUA thread where Snoopy continued to argue the merit of buying on the way down)

Not that I'm one to side with Snoopy's general viewpoint but there is merit in buying on the way down, at least for a fundamental/value investor.

[Dentie]

Anyone looking for a nice job based in Boston as a Pacific Edge territorial sales manager, tea anyone ?

http://www.linkedin.com/jobs2/view/11558920?trk=job_view_similar_jobs

...and if you don't fit that then here's some more ...

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/careers/customer-care-and-sales-operations-representative-?stage=Stage

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/careers/molecular-lab-scientist?stage=Stage

Now, I don't want to be accused of "ramping up" (or to be so daring to suggest confidence that things might be starting to build in this great little company), so in a nice quiet voice I will simply say "the evidence appears to suggest the desired track towards sales may be starting to get worn a tiny wee bit".

As for sales....I definitely know they have received $320 in this current financial year. Ooopps ... sorry, didn't mean to get ahead of myself and start "ramping up".

[Longhaul]

For the non-medical types like me, this is probably the best takeaway right?

"These markers were then used to develop an optimized commercial test, which was significantly better than cytology as well as nuclear matrix protein 22 BladderChek and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests..."

[Xerof]

And for another non-medical type like me, this is also a wee takeaway too:


a role in risk stratification of patients

as this is one of the 'approaches' they are taking isn't it Mr Magoo?

[Longhaul]

This isn't new but I hadn't seen it. Includes a little more commentary on the adoption of CXbladder by BOP and Lakes District DHBs, and a mention of Peter Leitch using it which I hadn't come across before.

http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2014/february-2014/11/bop-and-lakes-urologists-adopt-cxbladder.aspx (11 Feb 2014)

[couta1]

seems B&E has delisted off the site as well,
whats the chances of getting that $250 bottle of wine he owe's me.
karma will catch up with you B&E.
Talk about dishonest,he might be back under a different name,seems he had a lot to say,maybe Vince can email him for you to remind him of his debt?

[Whipmoney]

Gold Standard

The gold standard is the best single test (or a combination of tests) that is considered the current preferred method of diagnosing a particular disease (X). All other methods of diagnosing X, including any new test, need to be compared against this ′gold′ standard. The gold standard for X may be considered outdated or inadequate, but any new test designed to replace the gold standard has to be initially validated against the gold standard. If the new test is indeed better, there are ways to prove that; following which the new test may become the gold standard.

National Center for Biotechnology Information, U.S. National Library of Medicine

So how does CxBladder's metrics (sensitivity of 82% at 85% specificity) measure up against the current gold standard?

PS: Hancocks, how come your post count never rises above 37?

[Xerof]

I think Hancocks is inferring that, given time and due process, we might be staring at the new gold standard?

woo hoo

but then, what would I know.....

[Minerbarejet]

Gold Standard

The gold standard is the best single test (or a combination of tests) that is considered the current preferred method of diagnosing a particular disease (X). All other methods of diagnosing X, including any new test, need to be compared against this ′gold′ standard. The gold standard for X may be considered outdated or inadequate, but any new test designed to replace the gold standard has to be initially validated against the gold standard. If the new test is indeed better, there are ways to prove that; following which the new test may become the gold standard.

National Center for Biotechnology Information, U.S. National Library of MedicineIm sure Hancocks will set us all straight on this one. My understanding is that it was designed as an adjunct to the gold standard, cystoscopy, especially with its potential for discovering upper tract carcinoma. Whether it takes over as gold standard by default remains to be seen.

[Whipmoney]

Im sure Hancocks will set us all straight on this one. My understanding is that it was designed as an adjunct to the gold standard, cystoscopy, especially with its potential for discovering upper tract carcinoma. Whether it takes over as gold standard by default remains to be seen.

The answer might be here: The gold standard is the best single test (or a combination of tests).

I.e. Cystoscopy + CxBladder = new gold standard.

[Minerbarejet]

The answer might be here: The gold standard is the best single test (or a combination of tests).

I.e. Cystoscopy + CxBladder = new gold standard.You could be right. Cxbladder first then follow up with cystoscopy on positive result.

[blobbles]

The answer might be here: The gold standard is the best single test (or a combination of tests).

I.e. Cystoscopy + CxBladder = new gold standard.

I think we need to ask what it is the gold standard for. If we are talking hematuria and what is causing it, it is not the gold standard as it only tests for cancer, which remember only happens in about 2-5% of people presenting. Whereas cytology also tests for other problems which could be the cause of the hematuria. It could be part of a "gold standard" for indicating that you do/don't/need more examination for cancer detection as it is more accurate than cytology.

Now if you find out you have bladder cancer, then you could argue that CxBladder is part of the new gold standard, indicating the cancers progression/severity etc. But cystoscopy would still need to be used to indicate its location/size/biopsy etc. Hence why PEB suggest it being used as an adjunct. And this is important to note, I believe, CxBladder will NOT remove the need for cystoscopy as each give different information, all of which is required by a doctor to treat the cancer. Post cancer it is then quite useful to indicate reoccurance without cystoscopy.

But that makes me think, should PEB also do cytology in addition to their test? I.e. they could split the pee pee sample and do cytology on the one side and their test on the other making the process less complex for patients/doctors.

[Whipmoney]

But that makes me think, should PEB also do cytology in addition to their test? I.e. they could split the pee pee sample and do cytology on the one side and their test on the other making the process less complex for patients/doctors.

From my understanding PEB don't administer the urine tests, rather the sample would be collected at the Urologists office and then forwarded to PEDUSA in Hersey for processing.

I guess PEDUSA could also do the labwork on the Cytology specimen though in conjunction with processing the CxBladder test?

[blobbles]

From my understanding PEB don't administer the urine tests, rather the sample would be collected at the Urologists office and then forwarded to PEDUSA in Hersey for processing.

I guess PEDUSA could also do the labwork on the Cytology specimen though in conjunction with processing the CxBladder test?

Yes, that is what I meant. Meaning one bill and one collection process. Although maybe cytology has a shorter timeframe than the CxBladder test?

[janner]

PS: Hancocks, how come your post count never rises above 37?

Damn.. there on to us Hancocks..

Tell them to step up the Chem Trails.. and dismantle the Moon landing set in Wellywood !!..

[Bobcat.]

PS: Hancocks, how come your post count never rises above 37?

He deletes previous posts. I suppose he must have his reasons for this.

Yes, Hancocks?

[winner69]

He deletes previous posts. I suppose he must have his reasons for this.

Yes, Hancocks?

Strange things going on eh

Hancocks posts being deleted and Sparky deleting himself altogether

Maybe we have all been taken for a ride here

[nextbigthing]

He deletes previous posts. I suppose he must have his reasons for this.

Yes, Hancocks?


Vince explained a while ago that there's a bug in the system that has been deleting certain peoples posts such as Hancocks.

I'm not sure that this would explain Sparkys complete disappearance however.

[Bobcat.]

PEB's sp has just fallen below its 30-day moving average.

Placing a stop loss at 159c could be a good idea...regardless of this stock's imminent inclusion in the NZX50 (which IMO has already been priced in by most investors).

[nextbigthing]

Strange things going on eh

Hancocks posts being deleted and Sparky deleting himself altogether

Maybe we have all been taken for a ride here

Now now Winner, Sparky did get angry last time you talked about him when he was away.

Interesting though that Sparky and Brighton Early disappear at the same time... :D

[winner69]

Now now Winner, Sparky did get angry last time you talked about him when he was away.

Interesting though that Sparky and Brighton Early disappear at the same time... :D

Its just rather strange isn't it

Can't blame people for speculating though

It'll probably be one of those mysteries that will never be solved

So lets move on

[Minerbarejet]

Now now Winner, Sparky did get angry last time you talked about him when he was away.

Interesting though that Sparky and Brighton Early disappear at the same time... :DMaybe the JW are right after all -eh bobcat:D
Either that or rapture has arrived:scared:
Have a lovely day - cant see much ATM

[winner69]

Hancocks count now 38 .... he broken through the 37

[robbo24]

Its just rather strange isn't it

Can't blame people for speculating though

It'll probably be one of those mysteries that will never be solved

So lets move on

And RR too?

[Xerof]

Its just rather strange isn't it

Can't blame people for speculating though

It'll probably be one of those mysteries that will never be solved

So lets move on

lol, B_E has put his genie back into the $250 bottle and gone poof, Sparky has probably just had enough of the circus we have had to bear lately.

[Xerof]

I think Syd has me pegged. This from the Cxbladder website on the test performance.

The performance of the Cxbladder test was determined and compared with other available tests (such as urine cytology and NMP22 tests) using cystoscopy as the gold standard. Results from the study showed that the Cxbladder test outperformed comparative tests as a complement to cystoscopy

Hyperlink: Cxbladder Performance (http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/test-performance/)



So thats an official woo hoo then, and I take on board Whips observation of being complementary.

this is really seriously good stuff

[janner]

Hancocks count now 38 .... he broken through the 37


Well that's ok then... Peasants are back in line ..

[Minerbarejet]

1.59 looks like a good price to get some more, bobcat.
Seriously good stuff as you say xxxx and bound to do some good.
Thanks to Hancocks for his posts and reasons for deleting.
Winner, you sure know how to pull legs and stir the pot
:)

[couta1]

PEB's sp has just fallen below its 30-day moving average.

Placing a stop loss at 159c could be a good idea...regardless of this stock's imminent inclusion in the NZX50 (which IMO has already been priced in by most investors).
The trouble is if you exit at 1.59 some other big news could come any day and you might have to pay a lot more to get back in depending on how many shares your holding,I'm long on PEB

[nextbigthing]

The trouble is if you exit at 1.59 some other big news could come any day and you might have to pay a lot more to get back in depending on how many shares your holding,I'm long on PEB

Agreed. You might save a few cents buying in slightly cheaper but you might miss the big gains. Is that risk worth it?

[samdaman]

I would think you'd buy on the dips rather than sell. Water the flowers and pick the weeds.

I'm holding though, might be biased

[Minerbarejet]

US National Library of Medicine 2013

For decades, cystoscopy with the addition of urine cytology has been the gold standard in the detection and surveillance of bladder cancer. Current surveillance protocols after initial diagnosis typically include cystoscopy and urine cytology every 3 months for the first 1 to 3 years, every 6 months for an additional 1 to 3 years, and then annually thereafter.

Cystoscopy is a minimally traumatic office procedure and is successful in identifying most bladder tumours. However, it may be inconclusive if a patient has a grossly abnormal appearance to their bladder mucosa, such as patients with an indwelling catheter or an active inflammatory condition. While still the gold standard for diagnosis, cystoscopy has a false-negative rate either from operator error, or from small areas of sessile tumour (carcinoma in situ), which may be difficult to detect. Additionally, although cystoscopy is a minor procedure, it can still cause significant patient discomfort, stress, and anxiety.

An abundance of data supports the idea that urine cytology with cystoscopy is superior to cystoscopy alone in detecting high-grade urothelial carcinoma, as well as upper tract tumours. Accordingly, any new marker must have its performance considered against this current gold standard. A meta-analysis of 36 studies found a sensitivity and specificity of 44% and 96%, respectively, for urine cytology. Additionally, the positive predictive value of cytology is approximately 90%. However, one major limitation of urine cytology is its low sensitivity for the detection of low-grade tumours, at approximately 4% to 31%.

5513

From Cxbladder website:

Cxbladder is a non-invasive laboratory test for the detection of bladder cancer and to help rule out cancer in patients showing normal gene expression - quickly, easily and non-invasively.
Seems to blow cytology right out of the water on all counts. IF it becomes part of the gold standard and in the clinical pathway I'm seriously considering that Johnnythe Horse's Intrinsic Value Chart may become completely out of whack at 2013 .5, 2014 2, 2015 5, 2016 10, 2017 13 % market penetration

[MAC]

If Boston didn’t suit, how about a spot in Chicago, Dallas or Houston ?

http://www.linkedin.com/jobs2/view/11541654?trk=jobs_search_public_seo_page

[Snow Leopard]

Yes there is a lot more happening than we are aware of MAC - it all bodes well for future news from the company because they will be capitalising or finalising on progress already made, not just starting or creating the opportunity.

It's all very well but are they actually making any real progress towards real volume sales?
I have dealt with far too many sales and marketing men who were, at the end of the day, full of nothing but hot air.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating as some ethnic group somewhere used to say. Let us see some sales numbers that at least covers the cost of employing this bunch of people.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[SimonHouse]

MAC - great intelligence.

I've worked in corporate sales, so the words "strategic account manager" mean a couple of things.

1. "Account manager" is someone who is given accounts to look after - e.g., they don't often go out and win the business, they are there to maintain and grow the business of their client. It suggests PEB is confident that they have won the business that the account manager is supposed to maintain.

2. "Strategic" is music to my ears also. Strategic means a client who is big enough to demand extra levels of support. So unlikely that a "strategic account manager" would be tending to smaller urology groups, but more likely to be larger HMOs or a very important vertical market client like the Firefighters or Veterans Affairs.

It sure sounds to me that PEB has won some larger accounts that demand a higher level of service and attention. Sounds good to me.

[geo]

If you have worked in the corperate sales world you will also understand that a strategic account managers role could be debt collection, but I guess this is unlikely for PEB unless the 3 users last year have not paid.:p

Good one snapiti keep all our feet firmly on the ground.

[MAC]

It does seem to be a more senior position than the Boston Account Executive spot advertised a couple of weeks ago which presumably from the description was one of the nineteen sales territory roles.

I also don’t think it is a coincidence either that two of the largest Medicare regional offices are located in Chicago and Dallas.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/news/PEB-Investor-Update-13June13.pdf

It’s a five year plan not a five minute plan, all good progress, onward and steadily forward.

[Santiago]

WOW !!!!!!!!! this morning a bottle of wine turned up on my door step worth in access of $250.
Thanks B&E.
You are welcome to join me in drinking it, whoever you are.

You gotta admire the integrity.

[couta1]

WOW !!!!!!!!! this morning a bottle of wine turned up on my door step worth in access of $250.
Thanks B&E.
You are welcome to join me in drinking it, whoever you are.
Looks like we owe B&E an apology for doubting his keeping his part of the bargin

[Snow Leopard]

WOW !!!!!!!!! this morning a bottle of wine turned up on my door step worth in access of $250.
Thanks B&E.
You are welcome to join me in drinking it, whoever you are.

Did you mean "this morning a bottle of wine worth in access of $250 turned up on my door step" or was it a cheap bottle on an expensive door step?


Looks like we owe B&E an apology for doubting his keeping his part of the bargin

It is bargain.

If posters could also not confuse course as in 'of course' with coarse as in 'he was rather a coarse person' that would be good as well.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[craic]

Isee grape seed is the new answer to all your problems. Does this mean that PEB has been given the pip?

[Minerbarejet]

This sounds like somebody chucking rocks in a glasshouse. To gain access to the doorstep the entry fee is in excess of $250.00 but of coarse what do I gno.
Cheers:)

[stoploss]

English tutorial for PT. Check out your post #127 on the FPH thread .If posters did not confuse you're and your that would be good.
Cheers :)

[MAC]

That’s looking like a pretty full dance card now, good to see more sales staff more on the road with three venues back to back in March alone now (Brisbane, Florida and Ohio), sure they are just conferences and conventions but it does seem to affirm the ramp up effort and what better exposure to a target market.

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/calendar-of-events/

[ddrone]

Looks like a lot of steam is falling out of PEB. Traders trading?

[Whipmoney]

Looks like a lot of steam is falling out of PEB. Traders trading?

I suspect its because PEB relatively over-valued based on its forward sales trajectory and it has sustained these highs to date due a series of good announcements. As the news flow stagnates it is only logical to expect investors interest to wane.

DISC: Not holding and not saying the company isn't good. I just think its priced to far in advance of itself relative to other biotechs.

[robbo24]

Looks like a lot of steam is falling out of PEB. Traders trading?

Following the recent good news announcements, there appeared to be large chunks of PEB for sale in 100,000 lots.

I wonder if there is a big seller offloading :)

[baller18]

Weird how these 'big sellers' are selling more and more, when these good news announcements have de-risked PEB further more, who knows, maybe some of these big sellers are thinking on the lines of whipmoney

[robbo24]

Weird how these 'big sellers' are selling more and more, when these good news announcements have de-risked PEB further more, who knows, maybe some of these big sellers are thinking on the lines of whipmoney

Perhaps, Baller, but in my limited experience I have noticed that when someone wants to sell then good news is a good time to do it.. Because there's more volume buying at the current price. If they sold prior to the news then the price would drop quicker and they would get less return.

Your guess is as good as mine though.

[warthog]

Now where has that B&E guy got to...?

Good question.

Gone quiet for some reason. Maybe some of his/her groupies can fill in?

[Whipmoney]

Weird how these 'big sellers' are selling more and more, when these good news announcements have de-risked PEB further more, who knows, maybe some of these big sellers are thinking on the lines of whipmoney


Perhaps, Baller, but in my limited experience I have noticed that when someone wants to sell then good news is a good time to do it.. Because there's more volume buying at the current price. If they sold prior to the news then the price would drop quicker and they would get less return.

Your guess is as good as mine though.


Robbo has hit the nail on the head.

If I were a big holder and viewed the stock as currently over-valued then I would look to distribute (sell-down) just after the good news has come out whilst the stock is still bouyant and when there's lots of liquidity on the bid-side.

That way you can exit your position with a decent average sell-price as opposed to eekking out every cent of value and risk not being able to off-load all of your position at a decent price.


And poster were saying this wasn't a trading stock anymore. Every stock is a trading stock if you have the liquidity and price ranges necessary for it!

This is one falling knife I'd be happy to catch again ;)

Now where has that B&E guy got to...?

Every stock will have traders to a degree but I have to ask... who are these mysterious traders with several hundred thousand shares? I would have always thought that the traders (as a group) are still relatively small in the scheme of things compared to the instos... unless of course theres some sizeable prop trader desks out there trading on leverage (as I know there is in Aussie).

[baller18]

Yes, I figured that out, to get the volume through with a good price, which I stated a few days ago.
However, I don't quite understand, if all these big sellers have been selling since every good announcement from last year, why are they still off loading so many shares? All these 100's of 100k parcels add up to 10's millions and millions. However, if we look it from the opposite perspective, apart from today, all these shares are getting eaten up at a consolidation price around 1.61-1.63, so that's a good sign in itself also maybe? So over-valued or not is hard to say, Bollinger bands are squeezed very tight, and the lower BB if I'm not wrong is at $1.61.
Maybe a few institutions are still re-balancing their portfolios? Or overvalued as whipmoney thinks?
Not too sure, just trying to understand the market.
Also it makes me wonder at the same time, if it is these institutions selling down, why can't they wait a month, 2 months or even 3-4 months? Something like a medicare announcement ( though nothing is 100% certain), but once again, we can never understand why people sell as there are various reasons behind it.
But, for institutions?
Happily holding :D
Just trying to learn and feel for the market more and more!
Pardon me for my essay lol

[Xerof]

There have been some decent sized bids as well lately. Perhaps they can see an urgency in the selling and pulled out late today. Who knows, not me but there is still good interest in this stock.

no sweat, the movements are not dramatic, and without news, those unbooked profits burn holes in pockets and weigh on short term nerves.

you are right to say large holders will distribute into good pockets of liquidity. In the NZ market they have little option

[MAC]

Institutions and some of the larger investors who have been in since as far back as 20c often have no choice but to manage their portfolio within strict and quite specific diversification limits and rules.

With a quickly growing stock like Pacific Edge some of them will be shedding shares every now and then as the share price continues to rise and will probably continue to do so as the company grows over the next few years.

My FA suggests PEB is undervalued, and will be even more so should they deliver on ‘the tens of thousands of sales in 2014’ guidance.

The patient investor gets the rewards the twitchy investor just gets to pay brokerage.

[Longhaul]

My FA suggests PEB is undervalued, and will be even more so should they deliver on ‘the tens of thousands of sales in 2014’ guidance.


Hmmm, haven't run any figures myself, but the question for me is what will we think of a price at $1.60 - $1.65 if PEB signs a large US deal? Depending on how likely you think a deal is, and/or how far away that might be, this may make $1.60 seem cheap or expensive.

Disc - holding tight.

[777]

Perhaps they are selling up to buy Genesis.

Now back to my hole.

[MAC]

I look at it this way Longhaul;

If you work from the Harbour Asset Management revenue curve, just simply because it’s a traceable one and is likely representative of present market thinking. It provides for US Cxbladder revenues up to the PEB goal of US$100M in 2018.

A DCF based on this revenue stream, inclusive of gross margin and other information provided by Pacific Edge will provide any competent analyst with a valuation at about present levels. Valuations based on this revenue curve may probably well continue to put a floor under the share price. That floor will continue to rise over time provided PEB deliver with the said revenues as they go.

There are though two additional aspects to consider that should probably further increase the valuation of the stock within 2014;

1. If PEB deliver on their guidance of providing ‘tens of thousands of sales in 2014’ then valuations will increase. Note for instance that the Harbour estimate of NZ$7.5M in 2014 equates to only 13,600 sales. PEB’s 'tens of thousands' guidance now spans a range of between 20,000 to 99,000 sales.

2. The anticipated new product releases planned for 2014 are yet to be adequately valued by most if not all analysts as there is still little accurate information available to do so, although this information may be better provided by PEB upon product release. There are at least two new products to be released in 2014 each with their own additional revenue streams to that above.

Trust this provides one humble analyst's perspective.

regards, Mac

5546

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If you are looking to top up then wait until it becomes oversold and bounces off support. 150, 138-140, 130 and 120 are the places to watch.

[couta1]

Peb obtains 4.5mill grant from Callaghan Innovation

[biker]

Callaghan Innovation Growth Grant
10:00am, 27 Feb 2014 | GENERAL
Callaghan Innovation Growth Grant accelerates Cxbladder development

Pacific Edge is delighted to have the support of Callaghan Innovation to further accelerate the development of its molecular cancer detection technology.

Callaghan Innovation has announced a Growth Grant for Pacific Edge that will provide up to $4.5 million spread over three years with additional funding for a further two years available on review.

Pacific Edge Chief Operations Officer Jimmy Suttie says the Government’s Callaghan Innovation fund recognises the ability of the Company to turn scientific discovery into products that bring real benefits for clinicians and patients.

“This funding will provide additional resources to accelerate the development of a range of cancer detection tests, including further non-invasive bladder cancer tests under the brand of Cxbladder. Cxbladderdetect is now available to patients and their clinicians in the USA, New Zealand and Australia. This one-stop shop of products is designed to enhance the clinician’s perspective of the urological tract for patients presenting with symptoms of possible bladder cancer.”

Pacific Edge’s Chief Executive Officer David Darling says the Callaghan Innovation Growth Grant is also recognition for those shareholders who have supported Pacific Edge through the years of research, product development and commercialisation.

“Pacific Edge started out with a mission to make a real difference by finding ways to identify a range of cancers in their early stages when they can be treated with less devastating impact on peoples lives.”

Cxbladder is the first commercial result of that research. Pacific Edge also has patents for diagnostic and prognostic tests for a range of other cancers including colorectal, gastric and melanoma.

The Growth Grant will supplement Pacific Edge’s own research and product development budget and lead to the employment of further research staff at its Dunedin Headquarters and Research Facility.

For more information contact:

[couta1]

Is this the same goverment fund that has just given RAK 10m
Sure is Snapiti

[MAC]

Well that’s great news, more seed funding for additional research staff and pipeline products within an innovative R&D facility with a history of commercialising products at a fraction of the cost it would otherwise take abroad.

“Pacific Edge started out with a mission to make a real difference by finding ways to identify a range of cancers in their early stages when they can be treated with less devastating impact on peoples lives.”

Makes it a pleasure to be a PEB shareholder.

[Bobcat.]

Looking at its chart, PEB's previous support at 160c has now become a technical resistance.

Personally, I would only buy again if either:

a) it holds for the day above 160c...or

b) as JTH points out, it falls to test again its confirmed support at 150c (or possibly even lower to around 130cps if next week we see a large drop in US Equity Market Indices).

[MAC]

Crumbs Johnny, it's already undervalued, I'm not sure you'll ever see any of those levels ever again, certainly not on fundamental grounds. Took advantage of the dip back to the MA50 and picked up a few for a family member yesterday.

[couta1]

Looking at its chart, PEB's previous support at 160c has now become a technical resistance.

Personally, I would only buy again if either:

a) it holds for the day above 160c...or

b) as JTH points out, it falls to test again its confirmed support at 150c (or possibly even lower to around 130cps if next week we see a large drop in US Equity Market Indices).
I'm wondering why you would worry about all this if your in long term BC?

[Bobcat.]

Today's positive announcement has failed to fire up any significant buying support, whilst the sellers are still ever present - that's bearish.

...for now.

[couta1]

Today's positive announcement has failed to fire up any significant buying support, whilst the sellers are still ever present - that's bearish.

...for now.
When I saw the announcement I thought it would hold the price steady,its not really a fire up kind of announcement rather another endorsement of a great product

[In4a$]

I sold some at $1.63 then more at $1.60, will buy back just before the NZX50 listing regardless of price in hope price will strengthen once in the NZX50. What's the general perception ? will price climb once in NZX50 ? or are those NZX50 fund managers buying now ?

[Bobcat.]

I'm wondering why you would worry about all this if your in long term BC?

I run two accounts - one as a medium-to-long term investment portfolio (under a friend's name) and the other a short-term trading account (under my name).

It's lucrative and personally more satisfying to trade off both fundamentals and chart technical analysis (TA).

For both portfolios, a stock will qualify for my watch-lists normally by its fundamentals but I will not buy it until the TA lines up -- either when it's oversold (e.g. BRL.nzx), broken through key resistance (e.g. EVN.asx last week) or when dipping on an upward trend-line (e.g. PDN.asx, CDY.asx, etc).

My buying and selling strategies for the two different portfolios are different. Short-term for the trading portfolio when spikes provide me a quick profit (adopting a business mindset); the other medium-to-long term for the investment portfolio, when I will tend to hug a trendline, looking for fundamental shifts in value and/or broader market momentum to trigger a trade.

It's taken a few years to develop the discipline required to manage the two portfolios with different approaches, but now that I have, I can sleep better at night, keep the tax man happy enough come mid-year, and afford the odd luxury for family treats throughout the year. I'm not nearly as wealthy as some posting on ST, but I am able to make a living doing it, and enjoy the challenges it brings along.

But each to his own.

BC

[Minerbarejet]

Yes, and dont forget five months ago the share price was $1.00 less than now.
Bobcat sold out at 1.70 or so he informed us and indicated he was waiting for the equity markets to slump which he has again reiterated. This is trader action not long term holder
I started accumulating PEB in late Feb last year. I have not sold any at all. There are enough numbers to make a big difference from here on especially if they ever pay a dividend. Big if I know.

[Bobcat.]

Bobcat sold out at 1.70 or so he informed us and indicated he was waiting for the equity markets to slump which he has again reiterated. This is trader action not long term holder

I bought PEB in the low .50's early October (partly due to the positive slant given by posters on this thread, thnx).

My trading action sold it at $1.49 late November (as it approached what was then an earlier resistance).

My investment action sold what was in my investment portfolio at $1.72 mid Jan.

I have not bought since, and am no longer holding.

My strategy is:

Plan A: to wait until after the Equity market correction.
Plan B: if that doesn't happen soon, to buy PEB if and when it tests $1.50 for the third time - for both portfolios but ready to take a quick profit on my trading portfolio following some upside pressure from PEB's NZX50 inclusion.

Would anyone else care to disclose their strategy for this stock? Apart from simply holding and waiting, that is.

Cheers,

BC

[Casino]

I'm really curious why you first wrote




Plan B: if that doesn't happen by this time next week,



and then





Plan B: if that doesn't happen soon,



Is there a particular event you are waiting for?

[Bobcat.]

Yes, if PEB tests 1.50 before the Equity market correction happens then I will likely buy some.

If the converse is true, I doubt 1.50 will hold, and so will not.

[BDL]

Divine Intervention I would guess.....

[In4a$]

I bought PEB in the low .50's early October (partly due to the positive slant given by posters on this thread, thnx).

My trading action sold it at $1.49 late November (as it approached what was then an earlier resistance).

My investment action sold what was in my investment portfolio at $1.72 mid Jan.

I have not bought since, and am no longer holding.

My strategy is:

Plan A: to wait until after the Equity market correction.
Plan B: if that doesn't happen soon, to buy PEB if and when it tests $1.50 for the third time - for both portfolios but ready to take a quick profit on my trading portfolio following some upside pressure from PEB's NZX50 inclusion.

Would anyone else care to disclose their strategy for this stock? Apart from simply holding and waiting, that is.

Cheers,

BC

I agree Bobcat. Most stocks tend to get upside from NZX50 inclusion, I cant see why PEB wont be any different so I took profits on 25% of my PEB, just in case we see a drop to say $1.50 before inclusion. I will buy back before and if there is a upside after inclusion will probably sell that 25% again, just depends on how steep the upside is. 5% + and I'll sell then wait for a drop. Thats my plan.!

[winner69]

MAC v Bobcat approach different. Here's Mr Buffet's way f describing MACs way of investing/trading

With my two small investments, I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field – not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays.

Mind you MAC keeps a close eye on price.

Full article
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox/buffetts-annual-letter-what-you-can-learn-from-my-real-estate-investments

[ddrone]

I know this has been addressed before but what is the timing for NZX50 inclusion?

[Whipmoney]

MAC v Bobcat approach different. Here's Mr Buffet's way f describing MACs way of investing/trading

With my two small investments, I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field – not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays.

Mind you MAC keeps a close eye on price.

Full article
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox/buffetts-annual-letter-what-you-can-learn-from-my-real-estate-investments

With PEB's Market Cap being now in excess of $500m and its current sales being less than $1m, I would be cautious about ascribing MAC's investment style to that of the Buffet/Graham Value Investing philosophy.

This is clearly a high-risk growth play and completely out of the realm of the Buffet Methodology.

[MAC]

Each to their own Winner, that’s fair isn’t it, although I find the passion of some in trying to trade a stock like PEB curious. The fundamentals are relatively quantifiable, there is a reasonable floor under the share price and it’s far from being a volatile spec stock with little guidance.

Something that you Traders might be interested in;

As a part of portfolio risk management I calculate twelve month trailing Beta for each holding and for my overall portfolio, it gives some degree at least of correction ride through.

The twelve month trailing S&P500 Beta for PEB is only 0.61, way down there with all those retirement sector stocks. I wish you well if you are waiting for a lot of volatility to occur.

[winner69]

With PEB's Market Cap being now in excess of $500m and its current sales being less than $1m, I would be cautious about ascribing MAC's investment style to that of the Buffet/Graham Value Investing philosophy.

This is clearly a high-risk growth play and completely out of the realm of the Buffet Methodology.

I wasn't implying PEB a Buffett type stock ....just pointing out that Buffett's style is akin to Mac!s the bit about focusing on the field and not the scoreboard.

Talking of Buffett remind me his formula gave a 333 valuation for DIL but as no positive cash flow the same formula doesn't work for PEB