PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Whipmoney]

I wasn't implying PEB a Buffett type stock ....just pointing out that Buffett's style is akin to Mac!s the bit about focusing on the field and not the scoreboard.

But isn't akin to saying anyone who goes long in a share is behaving like Buffet?



Talking of Buffett remind me his formula gave a 333 valuation for DIL but as no positive cash flow the same formula doesn't work for PEB

That would make sense given Buffets valuation model isn't geared towards investing in high growth (high risk) companies.

I'm not sure how any simple heuristic model such as the one above could accurately capture the value of a share like DIL or PEB which will have multiple speeds of growth over the next few years. DCF analysis would clearly be a far superior tool.

[Whipmoney]

Each to their own Winner, that’s fair isn’t it, although I find the passion of some in trying to trade a stock like PEB curious. The fundamentals are relatively quantifiable, there is a reasonable floor under the share price and it’s far from being a volatile spec stock with little guidance.

Something that you Traders might be interested in;

As a part of portfolio risk management I calculate twelve month trailing Beta for each holding and for my overall portfolio, it gives some degree at least of correction ride through.

The twelve month trailing S&P500 Beta for PEB is only 0.61, way down there with all those retirement sector stocks. I wish you well if you are waiting for a lot of volatility to occur.

Personally I agree with your investment approach MAC (albeit I would probably value PEB a lot lower) whereby you invest in the fundamentals and take the techincals with a large grain of salt.

You mention volatility which is interesting because as a fundamental/value investor I actually consider this to be one of the lesser risks of stock investing. Over the long-run the noise will cancel out, yet the real risks always remain, e.g. credit risk (default), political/regulatory risk (e.g. chorus) and various other forms of risk.

[MAC]

The Callaghan Innovation grant of $4.5M over 3 years is just great news. This additional funding should allow Pacific Edge Limited to accelerate the development of the CX bladder suite of cancer tests by enabling additional staffing resources to be taken on board without compromising the various marketing launches.

Another great spin off should be the increase of resources for the 'Colorectal' test clinical trial and the 'Gastric' test validation investigations /discovery; so all in all, a very very handy addition to the coffers. The news will be of little interest to the traders as the return is too far away; but for the investors, nice!

More importantly, for future cancer sufferers it is a great development.

Absolutely nice Hancock’s, and I just wonder too if that grant, although not dedicated to Cxcolorectal, may free up some cashflow from the pool to bring the Cxcolorectal launch forward.

An additional $4.5M in the coffers and products on the shelf all good to go and market ready.

[winner69]

Each to their own Winner, that’s fair isn’t it, although I find the passion of some in trying to trade a stock like PEB curious. The fundamentals are relatively quantifiable, there is a reasonable floor under the share price and it’s far from being a volatile spec stock with little guidance.

Something that you Traders might be interested in;

As a part of portfolio risk management I calculate twelve month trailing Beta for each holding and for my overall portfolio, it gives some degree at least of correction ride through.

The twelve month trailing S&P500 Beta for PEB is only 0.61, way down there with all those retirement sector stocks. I wish you well if you are waiting for a lot of volatility to occur.

Thought that beta number you quoted was a bit awry in light of PEB being up 150% odd last 12 months and markets nowhere near that. Done the calc and it is indeed about 0.61 v S&P500

Different story v home market NZ50 though. If yahoo data is correct it is over 2. (I have known to be wrong). So a high degree of relative 'volatility' v the NZX50 which I would have expected but means nz50 and s&p500 are poles apart. Might look at

Just an interesting insight

Do you use Sharpe Ratio or such things to assess your overall portfolio performance?

[Whipmoney]

Thought that beta number you quoted was a bit awry in light of PEB being up 150% odd last 12 months and markets nowhere near that. Done the calc and it is indeed about 0.61 v S&P500

Different story v home market NZ50 though. If yahoo data is correct it is over 2. (I have known to be wrong). So a high degree of relative 'volatility' v the NZX50 which I would have expected but means nz50 and s&p500 are poles apart. Might look at

Just an interesting insight

Do you use Sharpe Ratio or such things to assess your overall portfolio performance?


Just because the stock jumped 150% that isn't necessarily a sign that it will have a beta in excess of 1 when benchmarking against say the NZX50. Generally the variance/co-variance should be calculated against daily returns (movements) and it would be handy to remember that a large part of PEB's jump took place late in the year.

Given that i'm inherently cognitively lazy and without doing any quant analysis whatsover, logic could suggest that PEB could have a relatively modest beta (less than 1) and yet have a signficant alpha value (which I would expect to be the case).

A beta of 0.61 wouldn't surprise me at all...

[MAC]

Thought that beta number you quoted was a bit awry in light of PEB being up 150% odd last 12 months and markets nowhere near that. Done the calc and it is indeed about 0.61 v S&P500

Different story v home market NZ50 though. If yahoo data is correct it is over 2. (I have known to be wrong). So a high degree of relative 'volatility' v the NZX50 which I would have expected but means nz50 and s&p500 are poles apart. Might look at

Just an interesting insight

Do you use Sharpe Ratio or such things to assess your overall portfolio performance?

I haven’t Winner to date but I might do now to satisfy a dose of curiosity, thanks for the inspiration, might look at a Sortino too while I'm about it.

[In4a$]

I know this has been addressed before but what is the timing for NZX50 inclusion?
Wed 12th March is the anticipated date. Havent seen anything saying this date has changed.

[winner69]

Just because the stock jumped 150% that isn't necessarily a sign that it will have a beta in excess of 1 when benchmarking against say the NZX50. Generally the variance/co-variance should be calculated against daily returns (movements) and it would be handy to remember that a large part of PEB's jump took place late in the year.

Given that i'm inherently cognitively lazy and without doing any quant analysis whatsover, logic could suggest that PEB could have a relatively modest beta (less than 1) and yet have a signficant alpha value (which I would expect to be the case).

A beta of 0.61 wouldn't surprise me at all...

The 0.61 against the S&P500 was on daily movements over the last 12 months .... as was the 2.1 against the NZX50. Agree a lot of the annual increase was in a small number of days and this probably explains the lowish R squared factor.

Doesn't a beta >1 imply a positive correlation to the NZX50 and the returns will be higher than the market returns. In theory a beta of 2 for PEB implies a return of 2 times the market returns (for the last 12 months a lot more than twice and again because the increases came on a few days)

[MAC]

Winner, do note that Yahoo data is known to be corrupt for the NZ50, I calculate an NZ50 Beta of 1.45 for PEB from other data sources. But yes a positive correlation with the local market as one would intuitively anticipate, and a much lower correlation 0.61 with S&P500 volitility.

Of course our local market, the NZ50, is also not as volitile as the S&P500, the NZ50 Beta correlation with the S&P500 is 0.35

So, as a reality check 1.45 x 0.35 = 0.51, yeah so thereabouts the same magnitude of correlation 0.61

[Harvey Specter]

Is a daily Beta vs the S&P out by one day given NZ is ahead of the US, yet follows the US market - that is an up day in the US would result in an up day inNZ the following day.

Beta is volitility, not return, so a 2 means twice as volatile, though I guess if the market is going up, then that is a good thing?

[MAC]

Yes, you have to apply a one day shift for an S&P500 correlation else you will get values that are lower than reality would reflect.

[Intel]

Is a daily Beta vs the S&P out by one day given NZ is ahead of the US, yet follows the US market - that is an up day in the US would result in an up day inNZ the following day.

Beta is volitility, not return, so a 2 means twice as volatile, though I guess if the market is going up, then that is a good thing?


Beta is not volatility

Beta is the expected change in Y given a change in x

Volatility is the variability in returns.

I would personally reccomend using a weekly Beta if you are trying to compare returns in different countries or where the trading times do not coincide.

Weekly Beta of NZSE all vs SPX Index is only 0.216 for last 4 years.

Hope that helps!

[ddrone]

156
1,221,130
15:20
SP





Anyone care to guess what / who this is?

[Longhaul]

156
1,221,130
15:20
SP




Anyone care to guess what / who this is?

Sorry, is that a buy or sell order?

[ddrone]

Sorry, is that a buy or sell order?

It's a trade.

[biker]

Sorry, is that a buy or sell order?

A moot point. The deal has been done.

[Longhaul]

Thanks all.

[barney]

Superlife sure do like the story.

http://www.superlife.co.nz/data_files/Gemino.pdf

http://www.superlife.co.nz/data_files/NZ_shares.pdf

[Sgt Pepper]

that seems like an extraordinary weighting in one share for Superlife, surely unwise

[Xerof]

that seems like an extraordinary weighting in one share for Superlife, surely unwise

I've been expecting to see them sell down too, but in fact they appear to have taken up the rights issue, and have not sold one brass razoo

at least as at Feb 17, which is the latest iress top 100 I managed to have a peek at

[silverblizzard888]

Is it a coincident but Cellmid (CDY.ASX) is working on colorectal cancer screening tool, which one of PEB's products is CXCOLORECTAL? Are they licensing more from Cellmid or just coincident that they happen to be doing similar stuff.

"Cellmid (http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/overview/1815/Cellmid) is also working on Abcodia, a novel colorectal cancer screening tool, and its anti-midkine antibodies for cancer treatment have shown a reduction tumour growth and metastasis in animal models."

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/66283/cellmid-books-half-year-net-profit-revenue-soars-492-66283.html

Also great profit for Cellmid given what they do its quite nice to see a company within the industry profit while still doing such extensive research and development.

[MAC]

Professor Antony Reeve and the Otago Cancer Genetics lab identified ‘an elegant predictor gene for the prognosis of aggressive colorectal cancer. Pacific Edge is not working on screening; as faecal occult screening is relatively simple and a very popular target for universities and biotech companies.

HyperLink: http://clincancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/13/2/498

Thanks Hancock’s, so just to clarify, Cxcolorectal is more of a prognostic tool than a detection prospect like the one Cellmid may be tweaking around with ?.

“Cxcolorectal is a prognostic gene signature for patients diagnosed with stage II or stage III colorectal cancer. The test predicts the aggressiveness of the tumour, allowing physicians to make the best decision regarding treatment for the patient. The gene signature passed a clinical study in Europe and Pacific Edge is currently refining Cxcolorectal to reduce cost and increase ease of delivery of the service. Cxcolorectal (Prognosis Gen I) has completed clinical trials and is preparing for commercial launch.”

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/products/pipeline/

[Snow Leopard]

....

HyperLink: http://www.signature-diagnostics.de/

Signature Diagnostics market the test as 'Predictor C'

Have any/many tests actually been sold?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

Next week we have the probable NZ50 listing, a feel good news story and a point of success in itself for any company, but more significantly the week after there is the USANZ conference in Brisbane, the SESAUA conference in Florida, and the OUSASM conference in Ohio, busy, busy

The USANZ conference in Brisbane is the one that PEB have told us they will present and publish the DHB user study results. I wouldn’t be surprised too if the USANZ (16-19th March) becomes a platform for a new product launch. The 2013 capital raising presentation advised that Cxbladder(triage) is due to be commercially available in Q2 2014 and the timing is about right for an announcement.

If anyone is going to the USANZ perhaps you could post some highlights ?

Ahem, should anyone of the good folk at PEB happen to read this thread, some information on Cxbladder(triage) would be most appreciated by many in helping the market to better understand it upon launch, the anticipated sales target goal, US and local price points, and market differentiation from Cxbladder(detect), many thanks.

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand/

[Joshuatree]

With posts like yours(and others) MAC who needs to go any where else. Thanks

[Xerof]

Validation of a urinary microRNA signature reveals high sensitivity for non-invasive detection of bladder urothelial carcinoma in patients undergoing surveillance - Nikhil Sapre

this is an 8 minute slot on Tuesday 18th March

MAC, is this the presentation they are making? I cannot see anything else of relevance, but then, I'm a wee bit inexperienced in these matters

perhaps peb (the ST member) might be able to provide guidance? Please...

[MAC]

Hi Xerof, Pacific Edge have been silver sponsors of New Zealand USANZ branch conferences in the past, most recently in November, it’s possible they will do the same in Brisbane. I’m not sure of the timing of the presentation, I’ll drop a note to USANZ and ask.

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/resources-and-publications/

[Xerof]

Yes, Magoo, you have nicely joined the dots

well done and thanks

[TimmyTP]

Buy side looking very weak. Anyone see a downwardprice target/range below $1.50 iif support fails there? I'm seeing $1.30 then (very tasy price!)
This sort of picture of "revealed bids and offers" is not unusual for PEB - at least over the last couple of years I have been watching - and it has not generally correlated with a drop in price. My observation is that current depth is not a useful guide to future price movement for this particular stock.

[MAC]

The simple reality that the top twenty have not lowered their holdings to routinely maintain diversification limits, beyond shedding the dilution, says a lot about their confidence in where Pacific Edge is heading.

[Snow Leopard]

this is long term a very good bet... most future bio tech companies have a hard road to build. This company has done the hard yards and is now investable.. It matters not that the share price is overvalued. This is a long term hold and a short term trade on the news..

Put a holding in your family trust and forget about it....

Trade the news flashes if you feel lucky and you are very experianced.

A lot of bio firms in the states are under performers..

So a holding in this company in NZ dollars is now a good option to balance out your portfolios..

Xero is now very over valued and you can buy a lot more peb that xero for your money..

Do the maths and this is the on probability the better bet long term...

Im afraid xero has nothing that cannot be replicated with robotic software development from generators....

unless your a data class designer expert with several decade of experiance please dont even think otherwise ...

PEB a BUY and Hold ...

A lot of opinions nearly worth the disc space they occupy.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Schrodinger]

this is long term a very good bet... most future bio tech companies have a hard road to build. This company has done the hard yards and is now investable.. It matters not that the share price is overvalued. This is a long term hold and a short term trade on the news..

Put a holding in your family trust and forget about it....

Trade the news flashes if you feel lucky and you are very experianced.

A lot of bio firms in the states are under performers..

So a holding in this company in NZ dollars is now a good option to balance out your portfolios..

Xero is now very over valued and you can buy a lot more peb that xero for your money..

Do the maths and this is the on probability the better bet long term...

Im afraid xero has nothing that cannot be replicated with robotic software development from generators....

unless your a data class designer expert with several decade of experiance please dont even think otherwise ...

PEB a BUY and Hold ...

Posts like these make me thankful for DOYR.

[Snow Leopard]

do you know something about the field of data class generator robotics? I design them... along with engineers world wide ...

I was head of the Tiger Traders Technical Team who created the
Tiger
Traders
Technical
Team:
Tweeter -
Technical
Trader
Type

or T8 as it was affectionately known. (The next version was recoded in 3 days but it took us 4 months to come up with a name and eventually we settled on 'Bob' (Binary autOnomous Bulls***er)

Written entirely in BF (http://www.muppetlabs.com/~breadbox/bf/) 'he' was the basis for the bots that most celebrities use to run their twitter accounts.
You appear to based on a pirated version of our very successful 'Paris Hilton' derivation of the T8.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Harvey Specter]

do you know something about the field of data class generator robotics? I design them... along with engineers world wide ...Ssshh. dont let the secret out. Not even Google knows:


No results found for "data class generator robotics".

SS - have you ever thought that those voices you hear aren't your computer speaking to you but are just in your head??

[zspoon]

It's so top secret that Google has purged it from search results, pending a Google Robotics acquisition of surfersteves IP.

[Whipmoney]

Maybe Surfer Steve is a robot... probably the product one of Google's simulated annealing algorithms gone wrong. I think he's trapped in a pseudo-quantum dimension and sharetrader is his only bridge to reality.

[Iolite]

Im afraid xero has nothing that cannot be replicated with robotic software development from generators....

unless your a data class designer expert with several decade of experiance please dont even think otherwise ...

PEB a BUY and Hold ...

I think what Steve is trying to say is that Xero's software is nothing special and the functionality that it contains could be easily reproduced.
PEB on the other hand has unique intellectual property, which cannot easily be reproduced.

Apparently there are automated ("robotic") software code generators, ie, software or algorithms that can automatically generate the computer code underlying a piece of desired software. Steve seems to think that these automated code generators could be used to replicate Xero's software, without needing any sort of 'bespoke' coding by a human software programmer.

That's my crude translation of his text and it could be completely wrong! :p

[Toasty]

Disclosure: I am not an individual retail investor.

Are you a collective or hive mind. Like seven of nine?

[blobbles]

If steve really is as big a genius as he believes he is, his posts illustrate the biggest problem with many high level geeks: They have absolutely no idea how to communicate effectively.

[Snow Leopard]

The Huljich investment has dipped below the 5% SSH threshold it appears.

Given the numbers and the assumption that the rights were taken up in full then about 1M75 shares were disposed of between mid Oct and mid Feb but they still have over 14M left.

Meanwhile it would seem that the no news decline is now on.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Dont think it means a lot, if you look at the numbers they actually have nearly 200000 more after the disclosure.
I would suggest they were just selling down to pay for the rights. We await developments,- inclusion in the nzx50, medicare progress update, full year update and report, sales report. Going to be an interesting couple of months. Any kind of affirmation of sales gaining a foothold should give the SP a good boot along.
:)

[Minerbarejet]

A bit of interesting related stuff regarding one of the PEB markers.
CELLMID ANNOUNCES THAT BRITISH JOURNAL OF PHARMACOLOGY FEATURES MIDKINE, A NOVEL ONCOLOGY ...http://www.b3cnewswire.com/images/client_logos/Cellmid_logo.gif


British Journal of Pharmacology features midkine in a special edition with 16 new publications
Strong validation of midkine and its role in disease

Sydney, Australia, 6 March 2014 / B3C newswire / - Cellmid Limited (http://www.cellmid.com.au/) (ASX: CDY) advises that The British Journal of Pharmacology (BJP) has recently published a special edition dedicated tomidkine (http://www.cellmid.com.au/content_common/pg-human.seo) (MK) including 16 research papers by various authors. The BJP is the premier peer-reviewed publication of the British Pharmacological Society, and it is recognised as one of the most influential international journals covering all aspects of experimental pharmacology.
The BJP Midkine Issue contains invited reviews from pre-eminent MK researchers from around the world, with comprehensive up-to-date articles covering the gamut of MK biology. Publications examine the role of MK in diseases including various cancers, kidney diseases, cardiovascular disease, multiple sclerosis and neurodegenerative disorders. New understanding of MK signaling and receptors is also featured. The full table of contents and the articles themselves can be viewed at
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bph.2014.171.issue-4/issuetoc.
“Being featured in a high-impact, internationally regarded journal with a global audience is a strong validation of MK’s importance in health and disease”, said Cellmid CEO, Maria Halasz. “Cellmid recognised this potential early on, and it is pleasing to see the increasing and ever wider realisation of MK’s potential utility as a disease target or as a therapeutic agent in its own right.”
“Having MK reviewed in this way is very helpful to Cellmid’s product development programs”, added Darren Jones, Head of Product Development. “Publications such as these provide strong supporting evidence to regulators, key opinion leaders and potential biotech and pharma partners. They provide a solid foundation upon which Cellmid can build its clinical programs and collaborations.”
Since its discovery in 1988, MK has been the subject of over 670 peer-review papers.
About Cellmid Limited (http://www.cellmid.com.au/) (ASX: CDY) Cellmid is an Australian biotechnology company with lead drug candidates in immunooncology. The Company is developing innovative novel therapies and diagnostic tests for a number of cancer indications, in particular solid tumours. Cellmid holds the largest and most comprehensive portfolio of intellectual property related to the novel oncology target midkine and midkine antagonists globally. The Company’s most advanced development programmes involve using its anti-midkine antibodies in addition to commercialising midkine as a biomarker for the early diagnosis and prognosis of cancer.
About Midkine (http://www.cellmid.com.au/content_common/pg-human.seo) (MK)Midkine is a growth factor that is highly expressed during embryonic development. Midkine modulates many important biological interactions such as cell growth, cell migration and cellular adherence. These functions are relevant to cancer, inflammation, autoimmunity, ischemia, nerve growth/repair and wound healing. Midkine is barely detectable in healthy adults and only occurs as a consequence of the pathogenesis of a number of different disorders. Midkine expression is often evident very early in disease onset, even before any apparent physical symptoms. Accordingly, midkine is an important early marker for diagnosing cancers and autoimmune diseases. Finally, midkine is only present in a disease context, and targeting midkine is not expected to harm normal healthy tissues.
Contact: Maria Halasz, CEO T +612 9221 6830 Twitter: @mariahalasz
http://www.einnews.com/images/blank.gif?pr_id=193806579&section=b3cnewswire&ref=-bots

[Xerof]

Surfer and klingons,

Feel free to take this discussion to off market - you are cluttering this thread with irrrelevant crap - again

[geo]

Regarding: A steady stream of shares to the market.

All of the major shareholders 'probably' have a very low average share price from zero to just a few cents.

In 2011 for example there was a renounceable rights issue of 3 new shares for




every 7 held, the issue price was $0.19. A quick look at the holdings in 2010 and you can calculate the allocations.

The latest rights issue was the eighth they have participated in and supported Pacific Edge Limited with its product development.

This information is in the public domain, so no breach of privacy; I have shown limited companies only and not individual shareholders.

5577


Hi Hancocks

Question for you when the CXcollrectal comes on stream how will that affect the lab facilities in both US and Dunedin.

Are we looking to build new labs or lease larger buildings??

[karen1]

Absolutely agree Xerof, sick to death of the dribble. Suggest he starts a thread titled Quark - which is apparently 'an elementary particle and a fundamental constituent of matter'. It sounds like “kwork” and got its spelling from a whimsical poem in James Joyce’s Finnegans Wake. Nuff said?

Of course, a thread with this title would obviously be open to being filled with much elementary crap, and could well serve to be "found an uncomplicated solution to the problem".

As wiki puts it: el·e·men·ta·ry (ĕl′ə-mĕn′tə-rē, -trē)
adj.
1. Of, relating to, or constituting the basic, essential, or fundamental part

and from the Merriam-Webster dictionary, I quite like the example of fundamental: We need to address these problems on a more fundamental level. Just not on the PEB thread!

Please forgive, couldn't help myself!

[Copper]

Feel free to take this discussion to off market - you are cluttering this thread with irrrelevant crap - again

Well said....I have been away for some time but as an investor all I see is a shrinking share price that any announcement has no effect on.Any medical or IT stuff here ain't going to bring buyers in. The thing may have run out of steam for a few weeks.....

[geo]

Colorectal and Gastric will be whole new product launches and labs would need separate processing areas to avoid cross contamination. Also part of the reason why the focus on the Cxbladder launch and bladder products (same lab).

Cheers for that Hancock

[baller18]

Thank you for your in depth analysis copper, any 5 year old kid can see the sp has been going down. So?

[Copper]

Thank you for your in depth analysis copper, any 5 year old kid can see the sp has been going down. So?
See your post. I was answering another poster and trying to relate the share price etc to what was on this site. It's a sharechat site and not an extension of the Otago medical school blog site and all the crap of trying to be more knowledgeable than the other bloke.I am glad you are over 5 years and understand but to some posters the medical side is brilliant when answering a medical question related to PEB and how it may affect the share price but some of the other stuff is irrevelant as my post inferred .Hope that clears something.The share price still looks to me to be under a drifting trend and nothing seems to be in the wind to stop the drift.Nothing wrong with the Company it's just a lethargic market thing. Cheers..

[MAC]

Most investors dedicate an appropriate amount of time to research a company, its fundamental business model, its management, prospects for prosperity, and then decide what percentage of their hard earned savings from a humble salaried life to diversify and to invest for their future.

It takes a well informed and cognisant decision to successfully buy into a business, whether it’s listed in the share market or whether it is not.

They watch and learn about the business and market as much as they possibly can so as to manage risk through a better understanding and to affirm their investment decision as the months and years go by.

The more medical blogs as you put them the better, information and knowledge will reward you, on the contrary, many or most really don’t give a rat’s about short term moves in the share price over days or weeks.

I sincerely wish you luck Copper as I feel you may well need it.

[couta1]

There's only two options when it comes to PEB,go long or very long,my medical brain doesn't have to think too hard about it actually neither does my non medical brain,it really is a no brainer then.

[Bjauck]

I have to say my PEB shares are in the bottom drawer. Even if returns are slow to come in I am happy if my investment is supporting their research.

[Copper]

Most investors dedicate an appropriate amount of time to research a company, its fundamental business model, its management, prospects for prosperity, and then decide what percentage of their hard earned savings from a humble salaried life to diversify and to invest for their future.

It takes a well informed and cognisant decision to successfully buy into a business, whether it’s listed in the share market or whether it is not.

They watch and learn about the business and market as much as they possibly can so as to manage risk through a better understanding and to affirm their investment decision as the months and years go by.

The more medical blogs as you put them the better, information and knowledge will reward you, on the contrary, many or most really don’t give a rat’s about short term moves in the share price over days or weeks.

I sincerely wish you luck Copper as I feel you may well need it.

A nice sincere post.Many tks Mac....

[MAC]

Quite a nice write up in this month’s exporter magazine issue;

Although, every time CS or DD talk to the media the five year goal seems to bounce around a smudge;

US gross revenues / US revenues / NZ revenues, take your pick, oh and now by 2019 as well as 2018.

It’s hard to know if the media just get it wrong or if Pacific Edge just can’t seem to internally bother to get their story straight. There is also the ‘tens of thousands of sales in 2014’ message which would probably put them on a road well ahead of all those alternative goal statement releases.

Perhaps we should just be pleased we’ve invested in a company not afraid to actually set a bold goal, whichever it may be, and to go after it.

http://exportermagazine.co.nz/articles/long-hard-road-success

[MAC]

I think so Hancock’s, conservatism as a company philosophy, and after all those years of development we are less than 3 months now from the first US sales report, a big milestone for the company after years locked in the lab, can’t help but have some anticipation for them and for a positive result.

[baller18]

Dear Mac,

Would you be disappointed if they reported few thousand of sales (around 5-7k)? Since 10's of thousands was mentioned to be delivered this year...

[MAC]

Dear Mac,

Would you be disappointed if they reported few thousand of sales (around 5-7k)? Since 10's of thousands was mentioned to be delivered this year...

Not at all Baller, as Hancock’s points out the PEB goal seems intended to be generally suggestive of strong growth and it is a five year goal for which in December DD told us that he was “unsure of the trajectory”.

I’ve interpreted the ‘tens of thousands of sales in 2014’ message as being calendar year guidance, and the FY14 reporting period ends in around three week’s time on 31st March. So, I’d be elated to see Pacific Edge achieve 5,000 sales up to that point.

Harbour Asset Management have provided a FY14 revenue estimate of NZ$7.5M which equates to around 11,600 US sales, but that could well be at the high end of the range.

[Minerbarejet]

Not at all Baller, as Hancock’s points out the PEB goal seems intended to be generally suggestive of strong growth and it is a five year goal for which in December DD told us that he was “unsure of the trajectory”.

I’ve interpreted the ‘tens of thousands of sales in 2014’ message as being calendar year guidance, and the FY14 reporting period ends in around three week’s time on 31st March. So, I’d be elated to see Pacific Edge achieve 5,000 sales up to that point.

Harbour Asset Management have provided a FY14 revenue estimate of NZ$7.5M which equates to around 11,600 US sales, but that could well be at the high end of the range.
Think you might find the next report out is FY 13 , Mac

[ddrone]

Think you might find the next report out is FY 13 , Mac

FY14 is the year 1 April '13 to 31 March '14. FY13 been and gone.

[Minerbarejet]

FY14 is the year 1 April '13 to 31 March '14. FY13 been and gone.
Somebody had better tell pacific edge then as their last report out in Dec was HY13. I assume that HY comes before FY but could be wrong as you suggest.
Cheers

[Harvey Specter]

You can't have a FY report for a year that hasn't even finished yet!

Oh dear...
You and your history Moosie. You need to be looking into the Future!

FY13 accounts to 31 March 2013: http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/annual-reports/Annual-Report-2013.pdf

Financial year 14 (FY14) will end on 31 March 2014.

[Mista_Trix]

Another member delete themselves?? Or perhaps a post cull - this forum just (over the weekend - since I last checked it) shrank by about 120 posts.

[ddrone]

Somebody had better tell pacific edge then as their last report out in Dec was HY13. I assume that HY comes before FY but could be wrong as you suggest.
Cheers

Half Year to 30 September 2013. Not HY13 (ie the 2013 reporting period). The FY14 period ends 31 March 2014 which is exactly what MAC is saying. Anyway semantics and such.

[Minerbarejet]

Half Year to 30 September 2013. Not HY13 (ie the 2013 reporting period). The FY14 period ends 31 March 2014 which is exactly what MAC is saying. Anyway semantics and such.
Okay got it - FY can equal Financial Year or Full Year and be two different things.
Cheers and humblest apologies-thats why I use an accountant - at least he knows what year it is.
:)

[Xerof]

Lol, let alone what day it is....is it Monday today?

[Minerbarejet]

Shops are shut - cant be


Duh- Taranaki Anniversary. :)
That bottle of Obikwa must have been worse than I thought- well I think it was Obikwa:confused:

[Xerof]

Come on team, we have to confront it at some point and it's been three full days since the notice - interests related to our Chair have sold a few. I find it a little deflating, but can accept they have other things happening in their lives that are not especially related to the PEB share price at any given moment.

Seems to still be one serious volume seller grinding it down, I bought three times last week, one for long term, two lots for trading account (out of DIL, into PEB), all currently under water by a pip or three.

miner, moscato, merlot or the pesky pinotage?

[Bobcat.]

Only 12 posts now left undeleted, Hancocks - you really are covering your tracks.

Support at 150c is now proving fragile. If and when it dives through, I for one will be ready a couple of days later to buy back into this stock, the darling of many.

Meanwhile, sitting on my hands.

BC

[warthog]

a Someone is definitely keen to offload shares [...] Think someone might have a short option on PEB?

Don't think that was Brighton_Early. S/he is way long PEB.

[BlackPeter]

Hmm - broke the MA30 some days ago and now pointing towards the MA100. Looks overall like a good managed company and has certainly a lot of value if the sales strategy works out. However, the question for me is: How much value?

Does anybody have a model to establish a PV for PEB? PE based calculations obviously don't work and PS based make it look ridiculously expensive. Not sure either what data to put into a NPV calculation to model them (i.e what revenue would you expect in 5 and 10 years time). How do you know if & when this share is cheap?

Discl: not holding - and not quite sure, whether & when to get in. However - I am sure, there must be a point when it would be cheap ....

[Minerbarejet]

Mr Darling selling again, only 100k parcel though. That new C63 AGM 6.3 Kompressor will look goooooood in the driveway ;)
Look at it this way Moosie, Mr Darling has expenses like the rest of us. Would you rather have him sell before or after any major announcements? Might take the gloss off a big one if he sold after. See it jumped back to 1.50.
Cheers
MBJ

[Copper]

I have no problem at all with his selling and neither should anyone else!
I agree. I had my head blown off the other day when suggesting the share was in gradual decline.You will notice that all recent posts are defending the share price and all the implications. That's fine but your post Moosie about MBE makes me consider the point that a thirty percent increase in one is more likely than the other.Thats a trading or gut feeling point of view.One can be blinded by some of the posts here which rightly so are more of a long term nature but I sense a twitchy group that don't like the share price going down...The Merc ,as you describe it sounds awesome ....

[baller18]

No copper, it's not there is a twitchy group which don't like the share price going down, it is when you mention it going down, you are not providing any analysis at all as to the big WHY?
Could be TA? However, you did not.
Could be FA? However, in terms of FA, nothing much has changed, has there?

[winner69]

I agree. I had my head blown off the other day when suggesting the share was in gradual decline.You will notice that all recent posts are defending the share price and all the implications. That's fine but your post Moosie about MBE makes me consider the point that a thirty percent increase in one is more likely than the other.Thats a trading or gut feeling point of view.One can be blinded by some of the posts here which rightly so are more of a long term nature but I sense a twitchy group that don't like the share price going down...The Merc ,as you describe it sounds awesome ....

Brave man Copper putting your head above the parapet again .....be prepared to have your head blown off again.

But nevertheless keep at it mate ...everybody should be able to express their point of view, even I it does upset the converted.

Between you and me I sometimes wonder if we have been taken for ride here - it all seems too rosy. But no worries as the old saying goes if it seems too good to be true it probably is.

I now rest easy

For baller - I think it's going down because more people are selling than buying.

[Copper]

No copper, it's not there is a twitchy group which don't like the share price going down, it is when you mention it going down, you are not providing any analysis at all as to the big WHY?
Could be TA? However, you did not.
Could be FA? However, in terms of FA, nothing much has changed, has there?
You and I may never agree. That's a given. Analysis is a big part of the equation but prices move in strange ways and cannot always be anticipated like Xero for instance.I just sensed that with all the announcements and charting support etc that the price was going down after a good rise over time.Thats gut feel and nothing else.Analysis won't answer that one.I have not the slightest problem with your statement because gut feel has no analysis except in my own mind.

[Copper]

Brave man Copper putting your head above the parapet again .....be prepared to have your head blown off again.

But nevertheless keep at it mate ...everybody should be able to express their point of view, even I it does upset the converted.

Between you and me I sometimes wonder if we have been taken for ride here - it all seems too rosy. But no worries as the old saying goes if it seems too good to be true it probably is.

I now rest easy

For baller - I think it's going down because more people are selling than buying.
Winner....many tks .I thought I was making Custers last stand but I will stay above the parapet.I agree that analysis is paramount but if the things dropping ,it's going down....IMHO....

[Xerof]

Copper, nothing explosive in your posts. The price is indeed drifting, something it has done quite often. I repeat observations made a few times now - unrealised paper profits tend to burn in peoples pockets, and they sell. They get more nervous when it drifts lower.

The Chair, and now the CE selling a few shares will inevitably weigh on sentiment in the eyes of a few shareholders too

Winner is right, there is a constant seller, who, at least to me, 'wants' to move the price lower (just look at the PA, gets everything taken at the offer, then immediately is offered a pip lower) perhaps it is an algo? Perhaps the seller is also the buyer? Who knows, not me....and I really don't fret over it. We know some of the large funds are required to rebalance, so be it.

I still see good buying in sporadic bursts, and personally view this drift as a further opportunity to add, which as I have mentioned earlier, I have been doing.

It is a compelling story, which IMO, is still in the starting blocks.

we also have an event this Wednesday which will trigger some buying interest later in the month if it actually happens

[Copper]

Copper, nothing explosive in your posts. The price is indeed drifting, something it has done quite often. I repeat observations made a few times now - unrealised paper profits tend to burn in peoples pockets, and they sell. They get more nervous when it drifts lower.

The Chair, and now the CE selling a few shares will inevitably weigh on sentiment in the eyes of a few shareholders too

Winner is right, there is a constant seller, who, at least to me, 'wants' to move the price lower (just look at the PA, gets everything taken at the offer, then immediately is offered a pip lower) perhaps it is an algo? Perhaps the seller is also the buyer? Who knows, not me....and I really don't fret over it. We know some of the large funds are required to rebalance, so be it.

I still see good buying in sporadic bursts, and personally view this drift as a further opportunity to add, which as I have mentioned earlier, I have been doing.

It is a compelling story, which IMO, is still in the starting blocks.

we also have an event this Wednesday which will trigger some buying interest later in the month if it actually happens
Nice comment Xerof...You and I have had the odd altercation in the past but a bit of reality doesn't go amiss from time to time.It is a compelling story .Who the seller may be is anyone's guess.And guess it would be,probably rebalancing.I have noticed that at the close of trading lately the price is often higher indicating possibly some covering of shorts during the day. Any bodies guess though .
kind regards......

[Xerof]

Yes, the seller restocking, lifting price, to do it all again tomorrow?

[robbo24]

For those worried about the short term sp drifting lower, look at the 100 and 200 day MA. Then pour yourself another stiff one and be thankful you aren't holding RAK from $5.

Amen :)

And 300 too

[MAC]

It is good to see yet more strategic roles being filled in the US, the second of such in the last month or so.

Sure it’s a job position but not without timely purpose, and one can't help but consider that momentum is ever gathering behind the scenes when we see these sorts of roles being both needed and filled.

“The Director of Payer Relations (DPR) is responsible for insuring coverage, payment, reimbursement, and patient access for a new Bladder Cancer Test in the molecular diagnostic space. This person will possess extensive knowledge of the current reimbursement landscape for molecular diagnostic tests across all payer segments including; Medicare, National/Regional Commercial payers, VA/DOD, etc”

http://www.linkedin.com/jobs2/view/12614552?trk=job_view_browse_map

Onward and upward.

Edit: VA = Veterans Association, DOD = Department of Defence

[Leftfield]

For those worried about the short term sp drifting lower, look at the 100 and 200 day MA.

Well said Moosie…. and XEROF….the trend is our friend. I'm using dips like this to top up also.
(Disc holding at av price well under $1)

[barney]

National radio interview this hour with someone from Dunedin diagnostic company.

[Southern_Belle]

David Darling interview on now ....National Radio

[MAC]

Econometric worth, the metric is ‘quality adjusted life years’.

I could sense a little frustration with the local health board bureaucrats, perhaps sitting in their comfy chairs casually pushing paper about, clipping the ticket, he was positive on the US process for evaluation though.

Still a fair message and reinforcement for a radio NZ medical practitioner type audience.

[Longhaul]

David Darling interview on now ....National Radio

Thanks. Can listen here if you missed it (like me).

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2588535/getting-a-breakthrough-cancer-diagnosis-test-to-market

[Dentie]

Thanks. Can listen here if you missed it (like me).

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2588535/getting-a-breakthrough-cancer-diagnosis-test-to-market

...liked the bit where David reminded us all of the 3 different levels of IP they have in place...

...obviously some didn't like it though ... look at the SP

[Toasty]

Anyone in for the bounce? Panickers be panicking...

Watching. Looks like an opportunity to me.

[couta1]

Let them all panic,long term who cares

[zymwh]

I am in .....

[winner69]

hmmm alls been quiet from PEB and those with rose tinted glasses assume they are just getting on with it, others would note that while alls been quiet insider(s) are selling.
Please pay special attention to the s next to insider as this is of importance.
any bells ringing yet

Looking ominous eh

Maybe we have been taken for a ride

Hope not ...at least mine are free but I would hate 'not to make as much a last month'

[silu]

This would have to drop significantly further for me to even contemplate buying. Too much hope already factored into the price for my liking.

[Bobcat.]

I'm waiting for the sp to drop through $1.40 and into the $1.30's before re-entering. When I saw Darling unloading a parcel when it was above $1.70 I sold out, and that was something I do not regret. Likewise he again (and others) are unloading, and so I will not be buying quite yet.

IMO, it's heading south of $1.40 prior to bouncing back upon inclusion in the NZX50.

Waiting...patiently...

[Bella52]

Company insiders only have limited windows of opportunity (ie after announcements) to buy/sell shares so I don't feel concerned at all about DD selling down a tiny portion of his holding.

[Copper]

Taking into account that the share price has been under pressure and insiders have been selling and also bearing in mind the future prospects and obvious development costs,Has anyone got a gut feel as to whether the Company may be contemplating a share placement to Instos etc at these elevated share price levels. They may have sounded out a few overseas groups and may have been told the price is a bit rich still. Last issue in the fifty cent range.A bit like the Xero approach.It would cost quite a bit to set up another lab or mount an extensive marketing and promotional campaign .I am not too sure of their cash position.Others would have a better handle on it than me.Am just throwing this into the mix whilst all the pros and cons are being aired.cheers....

[MAC]

Taking into account that the share price has been under pressure and insiders have been selling and also bearing in mind the future prospects and obvious development costs,Has anyone got a gut feel as to whether the Company may be contemplating a share placement to Instos etc at these elevated share price levels. They may have sounded out a few overseas groups and may have been told the price is a bit rich still. Last issue in the fifty cent range.A bit like the Xero approach.It would cost quite a bit to set up another lab or mount an extensive marketing and promotional campaign .I am not too sure of their cash position.Others would have a better handle on it than me.Am just throwing this into the mix whilst all the pros and cons are being aired.cheers....

Hi Copper,

The last capital raising in October was about accelerating the cxbladder sales ramp up and achieving profitability sooner, guidance is for profitability this year, probably at HY15 in November IMO, but possibly sooner at FY14, in around three month’s time, if their 'tens of thousands of sales in 2014' guidance plays out at the high end.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/183827.pdf

Last year at the AGM, DD advised that PEB had been approached by at least one pharma as a potential takeover target, which they "managed to fend off".

With all that cashflow on the horizon the challenge for PEB is more likely, going forward, to be fending off the pharma's while accelerating the commercial rollout of the product pipeline, some of which like cxcolorectal are ready to go to the market now.

[Dentie]

Does any one of the "informed" experts out there know whether the NZX 50 inclusion is a done deal...or does it only happen if the SP is over a certain figure?

[Minerbarejet]

Hope everyone has their buy finger poised and bank account ready to roll.:)

[Dentie]

ha ha ha .... 10 times more watching this thread than any other a few mins ago...

[Schrodinger]

Need a Hancocks post to ramp this up and drag in the traders.

[Xerof]

Does any one of the "informed" experts out there know whether the NZX 50 inclusion is a done deal...or does it only happen if the SP is over a certain figure?

the only person who raised this with 'authority' was B_E. S/he disappeared in a blended ignominious puff of smoke and red wine.

I don't know, and am waiting for the hard truth to appear tomorrow

[Copper]

On a lighter side the last few posts sound more like waiting for the tote to open on the Snail races at the West Coast Food Festival.....Must be a quiet day......

[Jay]

Sold my short term PEB yesterday for 1.49 (none were "free', broken the 30 day MA and 1.50 was my last resort stop) but still holding the long term ones which are free, but as W69 says, don't want to give away alll the profit either.
I think the 200MA is around 1.20 ish - So watching

[Harvey Specter]

Does any one of the "informed" experts out there know whether the NZX 50 inclusion is a done deal...or does it only happen if the SP is over a certain figure?It needs to rank 45 or greater when adjusted on a free float basis (remove block holders eg. Rod Drury, Peter Theil etc for Xero). There are also liquidity requirements which I think it easily meets.

[Longhaul]

Last year at the AGM, DD advised that PEB had been approached by at least one pharma as a potential takeover target, which they "managed to fend off".


Would anyone want to hazard a guess at what price a "successful offer" would have to be?

[winner69]

Sold my short term PEB yesterday for 1.49 (none were "free', broken the 30 day MA and 1.50 was my last resort stop) but still holding the long term ones which are free, but as W69 says, don't want to give away alll the profit either.
I think the 200MA is around 1.20 ish - So watching

Our problem Jay is that we are not emotionally tied to PEB

[Dentie]

It needs to rank 45 or greater when adjusted on a free float basis (remove block holders eg. Rod Drury, Peter Theil etc for Xero). There are also liquidity requirements which I think it easily meets.

thanks harvey

[MAC]

Would anyone want to hazard a guess at what price a "successful offer" would have to be?

Hard to say, Cxbladder(detect) is quantifiable as it's in the market place already.

A takeover candidate would need to value these cashflows plus also the prospective product pipeline cashflows which PEB have invested years of very smart R&D and funding into, Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxcolorectal, melanoma, gastric, endometrial etc and whatever else may be in early development. Not to mention the patents, all that proprietary IP, and the regulatory approved operational laboratories in the US and NZ, and partnered lab agreement access in Australia and Spain too.

By my assessment PEB are worth at least $1.70 today based solely on forward Cxbladder(detect) revenues, possibly more if they accelerate those cashflows as intended through the recent capital raising.

I would scoff at a takeover bid short of $4.00, probably would not support one at all. Pacific Edge have the potential to be a large global player in the market in just a few years from now, better returns come from holding.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

the only person who raised this with 'authority' was B_E. S/he disappeared in a blended ignominious puff of smoke and red wine.

I don't know, and am waiting for the hard truth to appear tomorrow

Have a read of the NZX handbook. They are pretty much guaranteed inclusion (announced after market close tomorrow). NZX does have some discretion however I do believe.


By my assessment PEB are worth at least $1.70 today based solely on forward Cxbladder(detect) revenues, possibly more if they accelerate those cashflows as intended through the recent capital raising.


Is this risk free?

[Marilyn Munroe]

Here is a link to an interview with Pacific-Edge CEO on Kathryn Ryans Nine to Noon show on Radio NZ this morning;

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2588535/getting-a-breakthrough-cancer-diagnosis-test-to-market

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[stoploss]

Here is a link to an interview with Pacific-Edge CEO on Kathryn Ryans Nine to Noon show on Radio NZ this morning;

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2588535/getting-a-breakthrough-cancer-diagnosis-test-to-market

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Just to avoid confusion is this different to post # 6445 ???

[MAC]

A fair question Johnny and an interesting one as risk is a perception of ones degree of humble research.

The big risks are gone, for biotech companies these are in successfully completing clinical trials, now complete for both Cxbladder and Cxcolorectal, achieving regulatory approvals, now complete for the Cxbladder, and then in establishing economic laboratories, PEB have projected 80% gross margins for Cxbladder.

The risks from that point are those of an operational company, do they meet sales guidance or do they not, I happen to think they may probably exceed a 10% market share for Cxbladder, each to their own perception.

[biker]

Just to avoid confusion is this different to post # 6445 ???

No, its the same one, but thanks anyway MM

[biker]

Im adding to my holding under 1.40 today. Not to trade. Just accumulating at a price a little cheaper than they have been all year. Certainly some persistent sellers there today. Happy to take some off them around these levels. Eventually the selling will stop. May go a bit lower yet, but IMO a few cents either way is not really material for a company with such potential and at this stage of its evolution.

Disc. Hold quite a few as a free carry so I'm biased.

[Jay]

Our problem Jay is that we are not emotionally tied to PEB

Yes must fix that -oh wait probably should not, should we w69 :)

Problem is we will miss out on the takeover offer of about $2.50 that maybe coming, then again it may not and could still be waiting this time next year.

It shot up from the 60's to 1.70 on those announcements, then dropped back to the 120's, where I last bought in, back up to 170 approx and now drifting back again, mind you looking oversold on the RSI

[baller18]

I agree with MAC that PEB has de-risked a lot, and it does seem cheap on a DCF basis.
HOWEVER, we are assuming the cash flow of PEB, as PEB has never had any cash flow so far (only guidance on revenue), which therefore, it is still a spec play, because we are waiting for sales to come through.
If the half year report reports 5-7k sales, then it will definitely seem cheap, but once again, we have no idea where sales is heading.
This is like saying a marketing student which graduated with A+ in his/her every paper but can't market or sell himself/herself to the market, what use is there?
But then once again, it has been mentioned many times before, why would the medical society or cancer bladder society not want a diagnostic test which is the most accurate out there and the cheapest out there as well?

Mind boggling trying to analyse it from every aspect.
Tried to pick a parcel at 1.37 but missed out, dangit!!

[zymwh]

4,000,000 shares changed hand at 1.37

[baller18]

Hammer forming? Moosie?

[Snow Leopard]

Quite a lot of volume so far today and a significant fall in price, though where it ends the day may be a different matter.

Trouble with stocks priced on great expectations is that they have times like this.
Where is the reassuring please explain / we know of no reason notice when it is needed.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[baller18]

Damn, the only time I was brave enough (as I think I have enough invested in PEB) to try and pick near the bottom and missed out!!! dang it!!!

Fear seems like huh PT?
Quickly back up to 1.44...

[Minerbarejet]

Yawn. Seems all over the place today - think Ill put it on ignore for a couple of years

[Copper]

Will let you know at end of day. That volume is massive. Speeding ticket NZX????

Has all the hallmarks of an insto or other large seller being in the market for some days knowing someone is around to take the last 4 million at an acceptable price to both..IMHO.

[Dentie]

Will let you know at end of day. That volume is massive. Speeding ticket NZX????

I would love to know who might be buying back in ....

[Copper]

Very much agree Copper. Most trade at round numbers. This was at $1.37. Might have placed it too early on the dark pools and been snapped up by a big fish on the way back up. Price is all over the place, can't make sense of it right now...

If I am remotely right the buyer could be a big fund like ACC or Super fund who may take the opportunity to think of the rebalance of the top50 happening tomorrow???..If that is the case and the seller is now bye bye then the price could be $1.50 or so by nightfall and it is business as usual with all the posters getting an answer and all the overhang gone. Let's see. Regards...

[Minerbarejet]

I would love to know who might be buying back in ....wasnt me - might have been moosie, he doesnt do things by halves.:):)

[Toasty]

Another 2 mill at $1.37. Any ideas?

[zymwh]

Another 2,000,000 ....wow

[warthog]

Hammer forming? Moosie?

Tong forming, Baller18?

[777]

From the news

PEB
11/03/2014 16:02
S/PRICE

REL: 1602 HRS Pacific Edge Limited

S/PRICE: PEB: NZXR Price Enquiry into Pacific Edge Limited ("PEB")

Please see attached documentation relating to a share price enquiry in
Pacific Edge Limited ("PEB") by NZX Regulation ("NZXR")
End CA:00248064 For:PEB Type:S/PRICE Time:2014-03-11 16:02:48

[Minerbarejet]

Hammer forming? Moosie?
Could be a sickle

[Xerof]

Could be a sickle you've nailed it

[baller18]

People care to explain what warhog means by tong? or what miner's trying to imply with the word tickle?

[Minerbarejet]

People care to explain what warhog means by tong? or what miner's trying to imply with the word tickle?
Hammer and tong , hammer and sickle plus hammer and nail from xxxx:D

[Copper]

Hammer and tong , hammer and sickle plus hammer and nail from xxxx:D

I hope the Company's research into bladder cancer is above this level.......Great posts....

[Xerof]

Copper, thinking about your earlier comment, I do wonder why the 'urgency' to sell, (have just seen the speeding ticket response from DD, so take it there's nothing to declare) Perhaps, and it is pure speculation, one of our larger holders needs to raise cash for a WHS placement?

Especially, given the likelihood of PEB being thrust into the NZX 50 tomorrow....eek, perhaps it's not!!

and yes, a wee bit of fun on a Tuesday afternoon

[Dentie]

From the news

PEB
11/03/2014 16:02
S/PRICE

REL: 1602 HRS Pacific Edge Limited

S/PRICE: PEB: NZXR Price Enquiry into Pacific Edge Limited ("PEB")

Please see attached documentation relating to a share price enquiry in
Pacific Edge Limited ("PEB") by NZX Regulation ("NZXR")
End CA:00248064 For:PEB Type:S/PRICE Time:2014-03-11 16:02:48

I wondered how long this was going to take ...

[Minerbarejet]

I hope the Company's research into bladder cancer is above this level.......Great posts....
There is no doubt about the company's research. Sorry a few of us get a bit carried away during times of stress and waiting but a bit of leg pulling and banter doesnt go amiss - offsets the dire predictions of gloom etc

[Copper]

Copper, thinking about your earlier comment, I do wonder why the 'urgency' to sell, (have just seen the speeding ticket response from DD, so take it there's nothing to declare) Perhaps, and it is pure speculation, one of our larger holders needs to raise cash for a WHS placement?

Especially, given the likelihood of PEB being thrust into the NZX 50 tomorrow....eek, perhaps it's not!!

and yes, a wee bit of fun on a Tuesday afternoon
Just a brief comment.I think when an insto or large holder makes a decision to sell the homework has been done.They just get on with it .Five or seven million or so is a large lot in the context of PEB.It may be rebalancing or WHS or other place for their money.It could be a taxation matter.I was once told to never use logic in some arguments there is always another answer.You know in voting,51% in favour 49% against....carried unanimously.

[Minerbarejet]

Copper, thinking about your earlier comment, I do wonder why the 'urgency' to sell, (have just seen the speeding ticket response from DD, so take it there's nothing to declare) Perhaps, and it is pure speculation, one of our larger holders needs to raise cash for a WHS placement?

Especially, given the likelihood of PEB being thrust into the NZX 50 tomorrow....eek, perhaps it's not!!

and yes, a wee bit of fun on a Tuesday afternoon and if it gets thrust in who gets thrust out?:confused:

[Xerof]

Just a brief comment.I think when an insto or large holder makes a decision to sell the homework has been done.They just get on with it .Five or seven million or so is a large lot in the context of PEB.It may be rebalancing or WHS or other place for their money.It could be a taxation matter.I was once told to never use logic in some arguments there is always another answer.You know in voting,51% in favour 49% against....carried unanimously.

fairy nuff

[baller18]

Thanks for the confirmation moosie, just wanted to confirm my amateur ta skills. Yup await for confirmatiob, got in late today but happy to hold peb

[Copper]

Just looking at last years Annual Report (,as one does over wine)..I looked at the large holders who might have been the seller.An odd one Christopher and Banks Private Equity fit the bill in a sense that they are the type who would jump ship mid stream to try something else..This is other than the usual instos.Has anyone a clue who they are in the context of PEB.Just look interesting on Google nothing more. Cheers

[777]

and if it gets thrust in who gets thrust out?:confused:

Chorus I think.

[blobbles]

and if it gets thrust in who gets thrust out?:confused:

HLG's market cap is $185 million, PEB's is $458 million at the end of today. HNZ's is $380 million too so would be above these two. Likely to be HLG disappearing tomorrow though... I think?

[Minerbarejet]

Miner, you can start breathing again now :)
Cheers moosie, co2 output resuming.
Thanks for the info on hammers, its a knockout.:)

[Xerof]

Just looking at last years Annual Report (,as one does over wine)..I looked at the large holders who might have been the seller.An odd one Christopher and Banks Private Equity fit the bill in a sense that they are the type who would jump ship mid stream to try something else..This is other than the usual instos.Has anyone a clue who they are in the context of PEB.Just look interesting on Google nothing more. Cheers
all part of the Huljich holdings, see the SSH notice published 6 March

[Copper]

all part of the Huljich holdings, see the SSH notice published 6 March

Tks Xerof..saw the name which has connotations from the past.It will be interesting to see if there is a SSH notice or we can assume it's one of the big,big,guys covered by the Computershare group holding.Many tks....

[Rego55]

Great to listen to the Radio NZ program with DD speaking about cxBladder. Listening to a guy like him talk about what they are doing and have done in the past to get where they are and where they are going is very reassuring to me as a shareholder. It hasn't improved my ability to write simple sentences however.

[MAC]

Seems to be lots of theories kicking about, DD doesn’t know why either. I really don’t think big institutional buyers would intentionally drag a share price down anticipating a need to establish a PEB holding for NZ50 inclusion, but then who really knows.

Some find PEB difficult to value for various reasons, it is complex tech with an equally unfamiliar US private sector healthcare market for most of us here in NZ.

Pacific Edge management are confident and I personally appreciate the way they share technical info and commercialisation strategies. And, although the fundamentals are strong and the SP is well undervalued now, it would seem to me that it would be generally of some support to investors if PEB were to better firm up some guidance.

With three weeks to the end of the FY14 reporting season on 31st March, it could do them no harm IMHO, to provide an estimate of anticipated sales about now, or perhaps in early April to announce actual sales achieved. After all, a lot of other companies well beyond their first nail biting sales result routinely do so prior to finalising reported revenues.

Congrats to all those who bought in today, you’ve done exceptionally well.

[Airw0lf]

Congrats to all those who bought in today, you’ve done exceptionally well.

Thanks, I bought some extra on top of my existing holding today at 1.38 and was pretty nervous about it. Was pretty happy to see it close at 1.44, might have been kicking myself if it kept falling past 1.34! (Still a bit of a newbie at all this!)

[warthog]

Definite lack of sellers today, back above $1.50 no problem. Welcome to the rebound :)

Apart from the 89k selling at $1.46.

More like definite lack of buyers today. 5k @ $1.43 currently.

With respect moosie, the facts are completely opposite to what you are describing.

[Xerof]

Well, if thats the case moosie, then the new crime detection software WYN have just installed at NZX will pick the manipulation up....no trouble

:p

[Copper]

Wow that changed quick! Some one is actively suppressing the price (see my comments yedterday about triggering stop losses off market...)
I guessed yesterday the seller may be someone like Christopher and Banks.If that were the case and the seller is quite large there may be quite a few more Millions to come and $1.37 would be the point of reckoning.IMHO.

[skid]

Triggering stop losses is not actively suppressing the price IMO--Its simply an exit strategy for better or worse--those stop losses have prevented some later gains ,but they have saved some as--- as well.
This is still a speculative share--Thats why its fun(usually) You wont find this many posts on blue chip divi shares

[Bobcat.]

This thing looks to be in a pretty solid down trend for now, so I wonder if BC might be holding sometime later today?? BC u still in at $1.30 odd??

My bid sat at $1.32c and didn't get hit...but close (dipped to 1.35). I've dropped it into a holding pattern in the mid $1.20's where there has been some solid support a few times before.

For the sp to drop through $1.37, I would say it will now take a major correction to the US Equity markets (80% probable this month IMO) or a disappointing PEB announcement (much less likely, although lack of NZ DHB take-up is not good). It was taken that low to cross two very large orders yesterday.

Resistance at $1.50 confirmed this morning. I'm staying out for now.

[Copper]

I don't have live feed and depth but I get the feeling that the seller might be just putting a few out there to keep a lid on the price whilst his broker looks for another million or so deal at $1.37.If you had to be a buyer I would say there is a fifty fifty chance at $1.38......

[baller18]

Interesting to see where the ends, if the speculation of nzx becomes reality and if it has any effect on the sp.

[robbo24]

It looks like the same seller who started selling into good news a few weeks ago is still going.

Yawn.

[Schrodinger]

Wait I thought this was a sure thing. Isnt it supposed to go up forever on no sales?

[Frankenstein]

Number 9 on Sparky's list of 20 lessons:

"9. When others are screaming in pain and fear and you can’t understand why a share has gone down by that much, that’s your opportunity to buy. Look for three days of selling, then BUY"

Today is day 3, no?

[biker]

BC, you said the same thing last month... and the month before (I think)... Please don't turn into a constant naysayer who eventually gets it right only because of the length of the timeline. Your H&S pattern didn't complete so it's time to re-strategis me thinks...

Brings to mind the fact that a stopped clock always shows the correct time twice a day.

[Xerof]

Wait I thought this was a sure thing. Isnt it supposed to go up forever on no sales?

funny, you clearly misread the PA - it's actually been going down for 30 days on increasing sales.

[winner69]

funny, you clearly misread the PA - it's actually been going down for 30 days on increasing sales.

Price going down for 30 days a fact

Isn't increasing sales an assumption

[Xerof]

winner, I'm taking a liberty here....we know of 3, then dentie said one of his relations had a test, so thats an increase

In response to schrodingers catty comment I was just taking the piss........something we would like all GP's around the globe to be doing at this stage

[SimonHouse]

All this selling down does seem a bit irrational.

Either:

a) there is some bad news coming (refuted by the CEO is his statement to market)

or

b) the price will go up again quickly when there is some more good news

Anyway, good luck to holders. This is a very volatile share price!

[Bobcat.]

In terms of the 80% probability of a correction this month, remind me, are using any kind of modeling to derive this likelihood or is it more educated guess work? 80% sounds very high to me and correct me if I'm wrong but you were of this opinion last month as well right? Any thoughts of re-calibrating the model somewhat if this month turns out to be nothing special?

Yeah OK - you have me there. I'm on record predicting a head and shoulders pattern after the 100 point dip in the S&P500 from Jan 23 to Feb 3. But clearly there are a lot of investors with much confidence in the 'improving' US economy to buy up large on any dips.

I have however noticed that historically, when we have had bubbles, they are accompanied by high frequency trough & peak combinations. I also pay attention to some advice from Fat Prophets and other analysts who at the beginning of February were also convinced we were seeing the start of a major correction. I gave some other rationale in a previous post (chart patterns indicate that we are historically due for one, artificially high US corporate profits, declining labour participation, etc)...but it didn't happen, and so in this case I will humbly eat my words.

5587

I will however stick by my position (unchanged for three months) that the Equity markets are more prone to bad news triggering a selloff than they are any good news spiking a bullish run. The past three months upward movement in the price of rare earth metals is evidence of the nervousness that has been creeping into the market since January. Accordingly, I'm 80% cashed up in Equities with the exception of precious metal digger stocks.

How does that affect PEB? Biotech stocks are renown for getting hit hard when Equity markets fail. PEB may be the exception in that, but IMO odds are it will be affected with its sp falling accordingly...not if but when that happens (IMO, likely to be this month). Of course meanwhile, there may be a great announcement that takes the sp through $1.50 but until that happens, I'm out with a cheeky bid in the $1.20's.

[baller18]

winner, I'm taking a liberty here....we know of 3, then dentie said one of his relations had a test, so thats an increase

just taking the piss........something we would like all GP's around the globe to be doing at this stage
All the patient's taking a piss at the GP's....

[Longhaul]

I have however noticed that historically, when we have had bubbles, they are accompanied by high frequency trough & peak combinations. I also pay attention to some advice from Fat Prophets and other analysts who at the beginning of February were also convinced we were seeing the start of a major correction. I gave some other rationale in a previous post (chart patterns indicate that we are historically due for one, artificially high US corporate profits, declining labour participation, etc)...but it didn't happen, and so in this case I will humbly eat my words.


I'm just wondering what effect Quantitive Easing has on the bubble? If we are to refer to past bubbles, did they occur at the same time as massive QE? Is there any precedent to refer back to in this regard?

[Bobcat.]

I'm just wondering what effect Quantitive Easing has on the bubble? If we are to refer to past bubbles, did they occur at the same time as massive QE? Is there any precedent to refer back to in this regard?

We are in uncharted territory - that's the troubling thing. Never before has the world seen such a huge buying spree of bonds by any country's central bank...which is effectively just printing money and then gifting it to Banksters who promise to use it to stimulate the local economy but in reality use it to speculate in emerging economies, in highly speculative, high-risk derivatives and frankly wherever they like.

The US Federal Reserve has spent $800 billion buying bonds since Sept 2012 to reduce long-term rates, but rates are actually higher than when it started; for that money, the Fed could have given every home-owner in the nation $10,000 loan at near-zero rate of interest, with greater economic benefit.

Earlier this month, Greenspan had this to say:
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Greenspan-economy-wanders-businesses/2013/12/08/id/540682/

It's the level of QE that's been happening in Japan, in the UK and by some accounts behind closed doors in China, that adds to the uncertainty and risk of market failure. Its impact on housing prices (e.g. in Hong Kong, London, Sydney, Auckland, etc) is just as unnerving.

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/q/quantitative_easing/

...sorry - this probably belongs in another thread.

As you were...back on topic. 140c looks to be holding for now as PEB's newest support level.

[robbo24]

http://exportermagazine.co.nz/articles/long-hard-road-success

This was just put on the PEB Facebook page.

[Copper]

All this selling down does seem a bit irrational.

Either:

a) there is some bad news coming (refuted by the CEO is his statement to market)

or

b) the price will go up again quickly when there is some more good news

Anyway, good luck to holders. This is a very volatile share price!

SH........Yes volatile.Irrational I think not...a. And b. Probably wrong also.What we have here is a large seller and until he is out of the way the price will be under pressure ...This short term phenomenum will probably override all the recent twenty posts also.IMHO.cheers

[Schrodinger]

The main message to investors is to remind them that a company indeed a successful company that justifies a huge valuation generally has a sales trajectory to back it up. For the long term investors this is a minor concern as they will be comfortable in knowing that the company at some stage will hit the magic number then they can sell.

For the traders (gamblers) they indeed want a ramping share price so they can make a quick buck. Considering the stock has been decreasing you can clearly see some of the posters motivations and investment styles. This indeed helps when you try and sort fact from fiction in terms of PEB.

[Minerbarejet]

Another thing, why does the nzx get all antsy when the share price drops from 1.75 to 1.34.
It went from .79 to .45 last winter and spring and nothing was said. Big deal

[Bobcat.]

not quite true.
1932-1936 the US used QE to stimulate the economy.
The result was inflation and lots of it which would be the same result if the banks pumped it back into the economy this time.
However bobcat you are correct in saying the banks are not putting their free money back into the US economy they are spreading it around the world chasing yield.
The simple fact is free money needs only to find yields of 2-3% and the banks are still making a **** load.

What I stated Snapiti was that "Never before has the world seen such a huge buying spree of bonds by any country's central bank".

I have looked for evidence of a QE programme in or after the 1929/33 Great Depression and have found none. Please provide a link.

The Fed back then deliberately let smaller banks fail. Late in the piece (around 1933) they did provide some deposit insurance which helped draw offshore funds back into the US Economy but nowhere do I see a QE-type programme.

The Fed actually hastened the depression! To combat a spiking stock market boom in 1928/29, the Fed raised interest rates which reduced dramatically the amount of capital spending and economic growth. As a result of deposit insurance and restored investor confidence, gold and other funds flowed back in from 1933, which helped revive the economy but the Fed almost brought the economy to its knees again in 1937 when they got nervous about inflation and so increased Banks' reserve limits, which again slowed capital spending and growth. Here is a fairly good summary of what the Fed did back then:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/pageone-economics/uploads/newsletter/2011/Lib1111ClassrmEdition.pdf

[winner69]

I'm just wondering what effect Quantitive Easing has on the bubble? If we are to refer to past bubbles, did they occur at the same time as massive QE? Is there any precedent to refer back to in this regard?

Hoop posted a chart that somebody had done that showed what the s&p500 might have looked like if it their had not been QE ......theoretical stuff but frightening

Maybe hoo can post it again

[winner69]

Hoop posted a chart that somebody had done that showed what the s&p500 might have looked like if it their had not been QE ......theoretical stuff but frightening

Maybe hoo can post it again

That chart if you interested bobcat

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/12/20131210_GW.jpg

If QE is still going on (at almost the same rate) why won't the markets continue to rise? Just make the crash bigger

[Harvey Specter]

Masfen selling up large yesterday. Not a good look at all...Why. They are heavily invested since the early days. Due to their relationship with the company (directorship) they can only sell during certain windows. If they dont sell all they want during that window, they are prohibited till the next one.

Personally I think it is in everyones best interest if they deploy their risk capital to bring to the next PEB to market.

[maccas321]

Masfen profit taking like last year? or am I completely off the mark here?

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1303/S00777/masfen-long-term-pacific-edge-backer-sells-10-mln-shares.htm

Disc: first time poster long time watcher ...and holder..

[NZSilver]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/248107

[777]

Well that is the 4,000,000. Who's was the 2,000,000.

And who were the buyers?

Also see this on their issued today.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/news/Exporter-March-2014.pdf

[Harvey Specter]

Also see this on their issued today.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/news/Exporter-March-2014.pdfHe could have at least tucked his shirt in. He's not a student anymore!! ;)

[Lost in space]

yep as I have said before many times my shares are free given the fact that I bought them for 50cps and sold a 1/3 for $1.65 ish.
Would not want my own money in a company with multiple insiders selling and no revenue.

Free stock or not, such a consistent negative outlook makes me rather curious as to why you would'nt invest those funds in a stock you believe in.

To my mind, the "free stock" argument cuts no ice.

[Lost in space]

Simple I have nothing to lose even at 0 cps.
Most bulls aren't deaf so even they should be able to hear the bells ringing.
Clever snapiti has a stop loss at $1 so wont walk away with nothing.

Thats not so cleaver at all.

Stop loss at $1 and current price is $1.42.

Simple - with your poor prognosis for this company why risk the 42 cents? Why would you not invest in a company that you have a positive investment outlook for?

[Balance]

Simple I have nothing to lose even at 0 cps.
Most bulls aren't deaf so even they should be able to hear the bells ringing.

You have whatever you have now x $1.41 to lose. That's how investing works - it's irrelevant what your cost is, it's more pertinent what it is worth now and even more critical what you think it is going to be worth in future.

Reads to me like someone who has sold out and now wants to talk the stock down to buy back.

Masfen selling has so far proven to be a golden opportunity for those looking for stock - 10m at 60c, and 3.25m at $1.20 (cum rights) and 1.25m at $1.32 (cum rights).

Nothing to work out a sweat over.

[Balance]

happy to bank 20k profit if the share price hits $1.
What will your profit be if the share price hits $1 lost in space.

And lose $8,200 of what you have now at $1.42 if it hits $1?

Profound logic, Snapiti - hope you are not teaching anyone maths or logic or finance!!!!

$8,200 buys a nice second hand car these days or a round the world trip in style?

[Copper]

You have whatever you have now x $1.41 to lose. That's how investing works - it's irrelevant what your cost is, it's more pertinent what it is worth now and even more critical what you think it is going to be worth in future.

Reads to me like someone who has sold out and now wants to talk the stock down to buy back.

Masfen selling has so far proven to be a golden opportunity for those looking for stock - 10m at 60c, and 3.25m at $1.20 (cum rights) and 1.25m at $1.32 (cum rights).

Nothing to work out a sweat over.
Balance nice to see you surface again....Would I be correct in saying that the Masfens still have about ten mill shares still.The two mill yesterday may be a different Masfen holder not requiring disclosure.Same sale price had a familiarity ring to it.You seem to be on top of numbers.regards...

[Balance]

Like I have said many times before on this thread this stock has lots of hype priced in it(looks like mr market agree's with me) and my $1 stop loss is based on something more than some of the hype coming out of the stock.
So you think I have sold out balance are you happy to put a wager on that.
nice to have you back

More than happy to.

Just my observation after years of observing human behavior :D

[Balance]

Balance nice to see you surface again....Would I be correct in saying that the Masfens still have about ten mill shares still.The two mill yesterday may be a different Masfen holder not requiring disclosure.Same sale price had a familiarity ring to it.You seem to be on top of numbers.regards...

Around 5m shares left.

the 2m is just a double up.

[Minerbarejet]

Like I have said many times before on this thread this stock has lots of hype priced in it(looks like mr market agree's with me) and my $1 stop loss is based on something more than some of the hype coming out of the stock.
So you think I have sold out balance are you happy to put a wager on that.
nice to have you backOH NO! Not more wine!
Quick, someone copy all Balance's posts. We know what happened last time.:)

[baller18]

Curious snap, how come u didn't burst out with all these comments when it went from 50 to 170, 170 down to 120, 120 to 160, 160 to 140??

Did u believe more in the company back then?

[Xerof]

Masfen Securities held 11,965,326 @ 17 Feb, off an iress report dated 27 Feb, so unless they have failed to report other sales (which I doubt) then they still hold ~8m

Please no BALANCE - don't take the wine bet - he still holds - it's just his twisted sense of valuing investments that makes him say silly things

[biker]

Masfen selling up large yesterday. Not a good look at all...

On the contrary. Masfen selling has been a good sign in the past. He sold 10 million PEB on 20th March last year for 65c and he sold ATM last year at 50c, and like yesterday with PEB I have been very happy to relieve him of some of them.
Large investors and institutions selling down, with no recent bad news in the market place can often be a very good time to buy. They can be selling for all sorts of other reasons, not because they have lost faith in the company.
It is also good to see the market absorbing the available stock without major damage to the share price.
There are serious buyers out there that obviously see good value in PEB at around 1.40

[skid]

Curious snap, how come u didn't burst out with all these comments when it went from 50 to 170, 170 down to 120, 120 to 160, 160 to 140??

Did u believe more in the company back then?

We know the announcements caused the rises-The real question is why the drops?

[baller18]

We know the announcements caused the rises-The real question is why the drops?
More sellers than buyers skid? Such as, the masfen family and etc...

[Copper]

Masfen Securities held 11,965,326 @ 17 Feb, off an iress report dated 27 Feb, so unless they have failed to report other sales (which I doubt) then they still hold ~8m

Please no BALANCE - don't take the wine bet - he still holds - it's just his twisted sense of valuing investments that makes him say silly things
I seemed to come up somewhere around there also.Didn't they take up some rights also.Balance may have the answer.Even so they may all be on the market behind the scene and all hell is going to break loose on this thread if they are..

[Lost in space]

happy to bank 20k profit if the share price hits $1.
What will your profit be if the share price hits $1 lost in space.

My profit would be in way over $150,000 but thats not the point. Are there no stocks you have faith in? But would rather talk down the stock you are holding. As I said - curious.

[geo]

Snapiti, you are just a damn fool.

Well said Hancocks but don't be dragged into the hype.

[JimHickey]

Confirmed PEB will be added to the 50.

[robbo24]

Yay
https://www.nzx.com/regulators/NZXO/announcements/248111

[baller18]

When a company gets included into the index does it make any diff to the sp?

It doesn't mean index funds have to purchase peb or does it?

[robbo24]

Investment institutions and trusts, etc, with a policy of adhering to a particular index are bound to buy to a certain level (if they haven't already).

This can add extra liquidity to the stock.

IE - on 6 June 2012 XRO and DIL were added: https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZX/announcements/223621

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=NZ%3AXRO&x=40&y=20&time=100&startdate=4%2F1%2F2012&enddate=8%2F1%2F2012&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=NZ%3Adil&x=29&y=22&time=100&startdate=4%2F1%2F2012&enddate=8%2F1%2F2012&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8

Both stocks enjoyed a hearty increase in price.

[baller18]

Thanks robbo

[Copper]

To Robbo....can't get a reply with quote as your post seems to have upset the system.Probably too many references .Am I correct in assuming that if an insto has a strict weighting in an index portfolio ,if that stock rises disproportionately to other stocks then they have to sell some. Conversely they buy on a severe decline.Everything being equal ,nothing happens.So if PEB has an anticipated rise as all posters predict,then the instos are constant sellers adding to the liquidity.
cheers...

[robbo24]

To Robbo....can't get a reply with quote as your post seems to have upset the system.Probably too many references .Am I correct in assuming that if an insto has a strict weighting in an index portfolio ,if that stock rises disproportionately to other stocks then they have to sell some. Conversely they buy on a severe decline.Everything being equal ,nothing happens.So if PEB has an anticipated rise as all posters predict,then the instos are constant sellers adding to the liquidity.
cheers...

If I set up ROBBO'S AWESOME INVESTMENT COMPANY LTD and my company constitution or investor agreement or shareholder agreement [or whatever binding policy I use to set down the terms of my investments] says that I will own 2% of every NZX 50 company then I am bound to buy a newcomer to the NZX50. The timing, of course, depends on when my policies require me to rebalance.

There may be other indexes that PEB begins to pop up on too... Those international small and midcap growth indexes ring a bell...

PS - Yes, rebalancing is required depending on the policy of the institution. If my 2% becomes 10% of my portfolio then I would have to rebalance that at the next opportunity where I am able or required to do so.

[Balance]

The other important thing about getting into the NZX50 is that all the brokers then start covering the stock.

The reports are circulated very widely amongst their client base - initially institutions and high net worths, then retail clients.

All good stuff for a stock.

[Bilbo]

If I set up ROBBO'S AWESOME INVESTMENT COMPANY LTD and my company constitution or investor agreement or shareholder agreement [or whatever binding policy I use to set down the terms of my investments] says that I will own 2% of every NZX 50 company then I am bound to buy a newcomer to the NZX50. The timing, of course, depends on when my policies require me to rebalance.

There may be other indexes that PEB begins to pop up on too... Those international small and midcap growth indexes ring a bell...

PS - Yes, rebalancing is required depending on the policy of the institution. If my 2% becomes 10% of my portfolio then I would have to rebalance that at the next opportunity where I am able or required to do so.

I may be wrong but I don't think the 50 stocks are all weighted equally in the index, but are instead weighted by market cap. Therefore a rising shareprice should increase the weighting in the index? I believe the Smart Shares NZ ETFs managed by the NZX allow a max weight of 5%.

I have not spent much time following indexes but more info on the NZX index methodology can be found here.
https://www.nzx.com/files/static/Equity_Indices_Methodology_June_2012.pdf

On the face of it I would assume a rising share price would increase the weight in the index, and therefore require further buying by index tracking funds. Given the proliferation of ETFs I really should understand this better :)

Any experts out there who can add their thoughts?

[Balance]

I may be wrong but I don't think the 50 stocks are all weighted equally in the index, but are instead weighted by market cap. Therefore a rising shareprice should increase the weighting in the index? I believe the Smart Shares NZ ETFs managed by the NZX allow a max weight of 5%.

I have not spent much time following indexes but more info on the NZX index methodology can be found here.
https://www.nzx.com/files/static/Equity_Indices_Methodology_June_2012.pdf

On the face of it I would assume a rising share price would increase the weight in the index, and therefore require further buying by index tracking funds. Given the proliferation of ETFs I really should understand this better :)

Any experts out there who can add their thoughts?

Exactly right.

The reverse is of course true as well - hence a stock removed from the index usually experiences a fall.

[Minerbarejet]

The other important thing about getting into the NZX50 is that all the brokers then start covering the stock.

The reports are circulated very widely amongst their client base - initially institutions and high net worths, then retail clients.

All good stuff for a stock.Well said , Balance. There will be a lot of previously unaware investors about to sit up and take notice with this event. My limited experience with everyday financial people has been mostly
based on "wtf are you talking about, never heard of it." Ever tried explaining this company to anyone? Damn hard work I tell you especially if they have probably never heard of bladder cancer.

[baller18]

So how come they were so eager to sell? And couldn't wait if making the index means all positive things to come? Strange....
I mean 24th of March is like a 2 week wait, or is their window of opportunity shut then as some were saying?

[Bilbo]

So how come they were so eager to sell? And couldn't wait if making the index means all positive things to come? Strange....
I mean 24th of March is like a 2 week wait, or is their window of opportunity shut then as some were saying?

My understanding is that the index weighting is calculated on the free market float capitalization, i.e. the value of shares not held by interests associated with the company. By insiders selling it might increase the index weighting, so this can only be a good thing for holders?

I find it interesting that XRO insiders sold right before inclusion in the all ords and global index last week, and now we have PEB insiders selling in the lead up to an index inclusion. I can only speculate on why, but it may be that there were more buyers around (i.e. instos, index funds etc) so that selling a large holding at that time was less likely to adversely affect the sp and it might also have some benefit related to increasing the free float?

[MAC]

I can see Chris sitting at the head of the board room table saying to David and the team.

Well, after a few hard year’s work the clinical trials are done, labs are built, US sales team are selling. Why not take some well deserved profits and a couple of weeks off, because when you come back you’ve Cxcolorectal all good to go now too.

My only real desire of Pacific Edge is that I’d like some shorter term guidance, it would take the volatility out, although it is entirely possible that Pacific Edge could release FY14 sales guidance at any time now given the reporting period is all but up, it’s not uncommon for other companies to do so.

But if one chooses to filter out all the noise, especially that of short term thinkers, here’s pretty much what Pacific Edge have been consistently telling us;

- We are on track for meeting our goal of $100M in revenues by HY18.
- The recent capital raising is for accelerating Cxbladder within the market place.
- Expect Medicare early this year, Intermountain and Kaiser Permanente within 12 mths
- Watch for new markets opening up in Spain and Asia this year.
- We anticipate ‘tens of thousands of sales in 2014’.

It’s a clear message if we choose to listen hard enough.

[Minerbarejet]

So if you had 20 million shares how would you go about disposing of them? Very carefully one would think if the price was to be maintained on the market. The more or less shoe in with the nzx 50 provides the carrot for keeping the price up during a selloff. Will be interesting to see if there are any further declarations from tomorrow on.

[Xerof]

Lets get one matter sorted before this discussion meanders on to eternity, with what if's and why's

Referring to the methodology for Indicies doc, PEB has no "Strategic" blocks of shareholdings over 20%, and (now that Masfen has reduced) only one shareholder controlling >5%, being K one W one, as declared in the last AR.

So, depending on whether NZX considers that 7% holding as strategic or not, the Free Floating Shares applicable to PEB will be 100% or 93%

simply put, this is good, as it's market cap will count in full for weightings

[robbo24]

I may be wrong but I don't think the 50 stocks are all weighted equally in the index, but are instead weighted by market cap. Therefore a rising shareprice should increase the weighting in the index? I believe the Smart Shares NZ ETFs managed by the NZX allow a max weight of 5%.

I have not spent much time following indexes but more info on the NZX index methodology can be found here.
https://www.nzx.com/files/static/Equity_Indices_Methodology_June_2012.pdf

On the face of it I would assume a rising share price would increase the weight in the index, and therefore require further buying by index tracking funds. Given the proliferation of ETFs I really should understand this better :)

Any experts out there who can add their thoughts?

That would depend upon the rules of any particular fund...

Like Robbo Kiwisaver Ltd that has 20% of its money in NZX 50 stock, rebalanced every three months to maintain diversity..

[Balance]

So how come they were so eager to sell? And couldn't wait if making the index means all positive things to come? Strange....
I mean 24th of March is like a 2 week wait, or is their window of opportunity shut then as some were saying?

Why did they sell the 10m shares at 65c?

That's leaving over $8m on the table!

Thing is, they have made their $$$$ and are de-risking their portfolio.

[Copper]

That would depend upon the rules of any particular fund...

Like Robbo Kiwisaver Ltd that has 20% of its money in NZX 50 stock, rebalanced every three months to maintain diversity..
One of my points earlier Robbo was if PEB was in an index weighted at say 1% then if it suddenly doubled in price the Instos would not need to keep selling to keep it at 1% holding but wait for a 3 month rebalancing where it may be rebalanced to say 2% and would need to do nothing.Hope that makes sense.

[robbo24]

One of my points earlier Robbo was if PEB was in an index weighted at say 1% then if it suddenly doubled in price the Instos would not need to keep selling to keep it at 1% holding but wait for a 3 month rebalancing where it may be rebalanced to say 2% and would need to do nothing.Hope that makes sense.

That would depend upon the particular rules of the particular investment fund.

[False Profit]

Price should be opening higher this morning. Depth shows we have buyers up to 190cps.

[robbo24]

Price should be opening higher this morning. Depth shows we have buyers up to 190cps.

Geez what depth are you looking at? Lol

[False Profit]

Geez what depth are you looking at? Lol

Wow big apology there.

I was looking at another share...the usual brain confuddlement. However we do have buyers to 145cps. not nearly as sexy...

[Bobcat.]

Direct Broking has bids and offers crossing at 145c. Not exactly the boost some here were expecting. It will need to break through 150c and hold , or alternatively drop through 130c, before I'll buy again. Even then, it won't be a big parcel -- equity markets are too shaky for my liking.

BC

[robbo24]

Direct Broking has bids and offers crossing at 145c. Not exactly the boost some here were expecting. It will need to break through 150c and hold , or alternatively drop through 130c, before I'll buy again. Even then, it won't be a big parcel -- equity markets are too shaky for my liking.

BC

It won't happen overnight but it will happen, Rachel.

[Xerof]

they don't come into the index until 24 March - easy tiger!!

[robbo24]

they don't come into the index until 24 March - easy tiger!!

Yes everyone just calm down. It's getting crazy in here.

[Mista_Trix]

Nice little NBR article;
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific-edge-rewarded-surging-stock-entry-nzx-50-hallenstein-leaves-bd-153155

[hilskin]

Interesting article posted on the Pacific Edge facebook page. Apologies if this has already been posted.

http://exportermagazine.co.nz/articles/long-hard-road-success

[MAC]

Imagine all those analyst today, sitting in their high rise office buildings, drinking their cappachino’s trying to knock up PEB revenue projections and valuations. I just wonder too how many of the international biotech indices and associated stock watchers will do the same thing.

And it’s not a straight forward one is it, Pacific Edge have not really disclosed a lot into the market place have they, esp in regard to all the prospective pipeline product revenues and profitability.

Brent Pownell’s inbox must be totally bursting with information requests, tempted to send him a couple myself.

It can only add to liquidity, and quality liquidity too, not the can’t be bothered with research just follow squiggly lines set.

Onward and upward.

[winner69]

Imagine all those analyst today, sitting in their high rise office buildings, drinking their cappachino’s trying to knock up PEB revenue projections and valuations. I just wonder too how many of the international biotech indices and associated stock watchers will do the same thing.

And it’s not a straight forward one is it, Pacific Edge have not really disclosed a lot into the market place have they, esp in regard to all the prospective pipeline product revenues and profitability.

Brent Pownell’s inbox must be totally bursting with information requests, tempted to send him a couple myself.

It can only add to liquidity, and quality liquidity too, not the can’t be bothered with research just follow squiggly lines set.

Onward and upward.

And a lot of those tracking funds will only be doing that .... following squiqqly lines ....... not giving a stuff whether PEB has a cancer test or is a manufacturer or maybe even a retailer or whatever

[Copper]

And a lot of those tracking funds will only be doing that .... following squiqqly lines ....... not giving a stuff whether PEB has a cancer test or is a manufacturer or maybe even a retailer or whatever

Getting slightly into the realms of knowledge,has anyone heard through the grapevine or the coffee house whether the Masfen's five or eight or ten mill shares left are still in play.You Guru's with an eye on the selling quotes ,have you seen anything to point to continuous selling.

[MAC]

Yes indeed, all the passive funds and ETF's will need to initiate positions in Pacific edge also, more the merrier.

[Yakman12]

Interesting bit of research on NZX 50 inclusion and share-price.

http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fcms.mngt.waikato.ac.nz%2Fwebdocs% 2Fpersonal%2Fevos%2Fpdf%2Fnzjabrsubmission.pdf&ei=zCwhU62bDc3nkgXK4IH4CQ&usg=AFQjCNEUhCwb2yYgxg5oSCCvs8z_8ZlUbQ

[Xerof]

The actual PEB chart is not exactly like this so perhaps one more days action to confirm, but looks like a short term reversal to me.

5591

[baller18]

:) the fun of biotech stocks

[Copper]

The actual PEB chart is not exactly like this so perhaps one more days action to confirm, but looks like a short term reversal to me.

5591

Put up an image just like that each day and we won't need all the other posts.Well done....

[klid]

In March, Mr Masfen sold 10 million shares in Otago biotechnology company Pacific Edge for $6.5 million, while retaining a 5.4% stake.

Well at least some are kept, no panic for me then.

[Casino]

Masfen and DD only sell when they can be confident that they won't be accused of insider trading. To me, this is an indication that we can expect good news soon.

[Casino]

Or so far off they might as well take profits now while the going is good...

The absence of good news is bad news in this case.

[Minerbarejet]

The absence of good news is bad news in this case.jeez you are a bunch of impatient little bunny rabbits arent you.:)

[benjitara]

Darling and co have one thing a lot of people here don't have. Patience. I'd like them to continue to work at getting this company producing results rather than having a look at the SP each minute of the day.

[etrader]

A bit more press in today's herald - the main reason for the drop is instos are going hard to push the price down before The inclusion in top 50 - they have a lot more punch than us retail holder by offering lower prices for large holdings.

This will bounce and hit $2 before year end.

[robbo24]

A bit more press in today's herald - the main reason for the drop is instos are going hard to push the rice down before The inclusion in top 50 - they have a lot more punch than us retail holder by offering lower prices for large holdings.

This will bounce and hit $2 before year end.

Push the rice down?

[SimonHouse]

Is there an online link to the Herald article? I can't seem to find it online?

[MAC]

An amusing read;

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11219188

[MAC]

Ok, explains it all, but is DD really that ignorant of the sharemarket? His broker shpuld be informing him about this kind of stuff...

The wife is always the boss Moosie and she wants an extension.

I really very much doubt that most CEO's even spare a casual thought about the fortunes of short term traders or market timing, especially one with such an busy international growing company to spend 80 hours a week tending.

[Harvey Specter]

The wife is always the boss Moosie and she wants an extension.Plus he didn't know the other two were going to sell as well. And without Masfens large sale, the effect would have been minimal.

[zymwh]

Conclusion: Three housewifes caused the storm in the teacup

[NZSilver]

Haha classic!

[baller18]

Looking pretty gud from the depth side...

[Trader101]

I hoping the Company will supply a sale guidance for 2014 shortly. It would be nice to now how sales are tracking against expectations.

[Casino]

jeez you are a bunch of impatient little bunny rabbits arent you.:)

My point was that these guys are not playing the market and they don't want to leave any doubt about that. Just mark on a price chart the times DD has sold.