PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

We may just have to dub this the ''rubber ball'' share

[False Profit]

Would love to see this one stay above 150cps but my 'make a buck' gene is telling me to sell up and buy back next week...

Funding an extension to the dog house...

[Dentie]

It looks like normal service is resuming ....

[Dentie]

Looks like Moosie is back buying....note the 25 shares at $1.53

[Minerbarejet]

Would love to see this one stay above 150cps but my 'make a buck' gene is telling me to sell up and buy back next week...

Funding an extension to the dog house...
The dog can wait at our place. My "make a buck gene" says sell anything else but dont sell this one.
Maybe we need some new genes.:D

[False Profit]

The dog can wait at our place. My "make a buck gene" says sell anything else but dont sell this one.
Maybe we need some new genes.:D

Hallenstein's are doing two pairs of 'designer' genes for $99. These excellent bargains have still not stopped them losing their place in the NZX50...ahem...

[Minerbarejet]

Hallenstein's are doing two pairs of 'designer' genes for $99. These excellent bargains have still not stopped them losing their place in the NZX50...ahem...
Like all genes I suppose- they have their ups and downs.

[robbo24]

I'm surprised there wasn't any discussion regarding the article Yakman posted about the price effects of index inclusion (i.e. what has just happened with PEB) http://cms.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/webdocs/personal/evos/pdf/nzjabrsubmission.pdf

That being the case, I thought I'd revisit my post the other day comparing what happened with XRO and DIL after the announcement they would be included in the NZX50 with what might happen to PEB.

In short 2 days post announcement DIL and XRO were up about 2% and 8% (net of the broader market movements) respectively. PEB today closed at 153 up from 144 two days ago and therefore net of the broader market is up about 7% since it was announced they would be joining the NZX. All looking good so far right! nicely tucked in at the upper end of that "predicted" range :) !

The next stage I looked at was 1 week post. DIL was up 4.4% XRO was up 13.4% net of the broader market. Making the assumption that the broader market stays flat and we see a similar further increase in PEB then maybe we will see PEB at about 1.56 next week?

Then finally the same logic would project PEB to be at about 1.65 come early April.

IN general, from my quick looks this all seems relatively consistent with the piece of research posted by Yakman and re-posted above.

Any thoughts?

Good analysis, although DIL and XRO are both essentially SAAS and PEB is biotechnology.

To be 100 honest I think 1.65 is conservative considering nzx50 inclusion does not occur in a vacuum.

The near future may be dotted with some interesting news, I think moosie (who stopped his Tom foolery and pumping for a minute) made a good post about it a month or two ago.

[BlackPeter]

I'm surprised there wasn't any discussion regarding the article Yakman posted about the price effects of index inclusion (i.e. what has just happened with PEB) http://cms.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/webdocs/personal/evos/pdf/nzjabrsubmission.pdf

That being the case, I thought I'd revisit my post the other day comparing what happened with XRO and DIL after the announcement they would be included in the NZX50 with what might happen to PEB.

In short 2 days post announcement DIL and XRO were up about 2% and 8% (net of the broader market movements) respectively. PEB today closed at 153 up from 144 two days ago and therefore net of the broader market is up about 7% since it was announced they would be joining the NZX. All looking good so far right! nicely tucked in at the upper end of that "predicted" range :) !

The next stage I looked at was 1 week post. DIL was up 4.4% XRO was up 13.4% net of the broader market. Making the assumption that the broader market stays flat and we see a similar further increase in PEB then maybe we will see PEB at about 1.56 next week?

Then finally the same logic would project PEB to be at about 1.65 come early April.

IN general, from my quick looks this all seems relatively consistent with the piece of research posted by Yakman and re-posted above.

Any thoughts?

I guess if we assume that the entry into the NZX50 is the only parameter influencing the PEB share price, and if PEB happens to be the golden example of a statistically average stock, than it should go up by 3% (according to Figure 1 on page 13) between day x and day x+7, with day x being the day it is officially taken into the NZX50. I notice that you are predicting based on XRO a higher increase. After the first couple of weeks the SP will slightly fall back again, but still stay elevated by about 1% (after 20 days).

However - as already your other examples show (XRO, DIL), there is no such thing as an average share. Some will jump much more, others less, some might even drop if hype is replaced by analysis. The only information you can deduct from the provided research paper is that if you observe a statistically relevant sample of shares taken into the NZX50, than they are in average expected to increase for the first week by 3%. Sorry - a sample of one (PEB) is not statistically relevant.

Even without academical research is it however reasonable to assume that the SP will go up in the beginning (unless DD needs another extension or somebody else needs money): more bidders without increase in sellers. What is happening afterwards is everybody's best guess. I could even imagine that the price drops due to better analytical coverage (though this didn't work for XRO either - i.e. more likely not).

Anyway - wouldn't put money on any prediction related to the PEB share price, but looking forward to some more analysis ...

[Bobcat.]

Does this quantify as breaking the 1.50 resistance BC? you were going to be in at this point right? Interested either way.

Closed above 150c which does meet my buying criteria, but whether or not I buy Monday depends on how Equity markets offshore hold up tonight. If PEB drops below 150 again Monday (usually a quiet day for buyers) then I'll probably wait until it breaks through again and buy a parcel in the 152-155 range (i.e. on the way up) with a stop loss around 147c. That's my plan - you did ask.

Confirmed as suggested earlier is the fact that the sp was taken down to the mid 130's primarily for those multi million dollar orders to cross earlier this week.

BC

[Leftfield]

All in then BC? Seems OS markets are pretty flat in reaction to world events etc over the weekend and PEB seems to continue on this uptrend. I have to admit I personally am loving this short term price movement, which appears to have been largely predictable post the Masfen disclosure and NZX inclusion.

Same. I topped up at $1.45 and with an average purch price of .80c on my modest portfolio, I'm pretty happy!

[silverblizzard888]

Was talking to Harbour Asset Management's Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, man sure loves Pacific Edge, especially after following for a decade. If someone like thats backing it, its a pretty good sign to me.

[Balance]

Was talking to Harbour Asset Management's Managing Director & Portfolio Manager, man sure loves Pacific Edge, especially after following for a decade. If someone like thats backing it, its a pretty good sign to me.

You know Harbour has been selling down their stake?

[Copper]

You know Harbour has been selling down their stake?
I notice they sold during the time the price had risen from the low fifties.That would only be rebalancing on behalf of their various client funds would it not???

[Balance]

I notice they sold during the time the price had risen from the low fifties.That would only be rebalancing on behalf of their various client funds would it not???

I am personally comfortable with Harbour and Masfen selling. Am making the point so sb888 is aware as well, and next time he may want to ask the question of the MD of Harbour.

[silverblizzard888]

I am personally comfortable with Harbour and Masfen selling. Am making the point so sb888 is aware as well, and next time he may want to ask the question of the MD of Harbour.

True, thats a good point you've made. Coppers right it would likely be to rebalance the portfolio as the MD was telling me about how they generally invest and how he himself likes to invest as well. An example was something like 70/20/10 where 70% is always in blue chip companies (where dividend is expected), 20% in mid size companies (no dividend expected) and 10% in new start ups or high growth (no dividend expected).

[goldfish]

I agree I would have liked a indication on how sales are going and am suspicous that we havnt, my fear all along has been that they may have a great product but it still may not sell well...hope im wrong, a small indication from them that they are actually selling a few and starting to get market traction would go a long way.

[baller18]

Blobbles did mention he emailed david a while ago, and they would only report sales quarterl if they were meaningful....

[MAC]

You would have be an absolute fool to expect announcements to occur at regular periodic intervals.

Most of us anticipate a typically well managed five year plan roll out with sales and technical staff working hard behind the scenes. They have met guidance provided over the last couple of years, and PEB remain entirely on track with their guidance for this year.

They anticipate a Medicare sign up early in 2014 provided there are no further Obamacare administrative requirements, they are targeting Intermountain and Kaiser Permanente sign up’s for some time this year, new Cxbladder product launches in Q2 and Q4, Cxcolorectal is market ready to go and sales in Spain should commence in 2014 also.

March is a busy month for Pacific Edge too with conference venues, if anyone gains access to a copy of any presentations it would be appreciated.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news-and-media/calendar-of-events/

[Dentie]

bearing in mind most growth companies like to crow about successes all seem to be very quiet from PEB.
This is a concern considering the 10's of thousands of sale's promise as indicated by the company.
We are now almost a 1/4 of the way through the year with no significant announce's.
I would exspect the company to crow when they achieve the first 1000 sale's in the US.
However IMHO we are more likely to hear that sales are ramping up slower than predicted.

These growth companies can't bloody win ... SNK dared to start "crowing" about its increase in sales etc (which is what you evidently want Snapiti) and all the likes of Balance can do is repeatedly smash them down with comments about insiders daring to sell some of their holdings. And look what's happened to SNK's SP because of it!

I think PEB are doing the right thing ..... and I'd do exactly the same .... keep my mouth shut about what sales might be being achieved and make people wait for the appropriate time to report. I would have my focus on getting the sales (that has already been envisioned) and managing the company's operations & contracts etc.

If reporting season arrives and there are disappointing sales (or better than expected) - then do your moaning and sell ...or buy more.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't. have some patience and if it is getting too much for you then just sell now and move on.

[Lost in space]

Whats that saying about "too much heat in the kitchen...."?

In a world of instant coffee, instant this & that it seems CEO's should be meeting needs of insecure investors rather than going about building the business.

[goldfish]

Am I in the wrong place? I thought this was a forum for discussing these things. To throw our ideas around and get feedback on the way we see companys etc...We cant question sales now?

[MAC]

You've got it Dentie, patient investors prosper, impatient investors just pay brokerage.

With nine weeks to reporting and PEB joining the NZ50 on Monday we should get to welcome some more large investors and funds on board.

Each to their own view, mine is such that there is more potential for an upside surprise than for underperformance, sales staff have been increasing, CS is confident enough to offer bold media statements, either way with the stock being a bit undervalued even a neutral result should have the desired effect.

[Dentie]

Am I in the wrong place? I thought this was a forum for discussing these things. To throw our ideas around and get feedback on the way we see companys etc...We cant question sales now?

If you want to dig around a bit and do some in-depth research, the events to date are all there to encourage interested investors that PEB are doing what they say they will do. This very thread is a good place to start that research - especially with posts from the likes of MAC, Hancocks & GR8DAY etc - who have done relentless research and posts for the benefit of the rest of us - for which I for one am thankful for.

I don't think it is about not being able to question sales, it is more about waiting for those sales to be reported (at the correct time) and then discussing whether they meet the pre-mentioned targets or whatever. To put what I'm trying to say into perspective AND at the risk of incurring the likes of Turmeric's inevitable tirade... I tried questioning the "sales vs profitability vs SP" of my old chestnut XRO and I copped a slap for being so daring! This is because what I look for in a company is different to what others might look for and vice versa. In XRO's case of course (as in SNK's), the sales are being crowed about.

Anyway, back to PEB - I am very happy to wait ... they have given me no reason yet to question ANY of their forecasts....

[Dentie]

Just remember Dentie, despite what Snapiti says, by virtue of his owning and holding PEB shares he of course believes, as you do, that the risk reward of owning PEB shares is worth it.

He goes on about PEB sometimes as if it's the worlds worst investment (yet I will admit that if you look past the huff and puff sometimes the heart of his comments are actually pretty fair). But at the end of the day he owns PEB shares and is not selling. That should be the telling sign if you ask me.

So, maybe his comments should be consistent with this "telling sign"? Otherwise it just sounds like an impatient belly ache - a bit like a kid who wants his lolly "NOW"!!

[Xerof]

Looks like the BSD's are starting to place their bets.

should be good volume on Monday, but I'm not expecting a big rally. There is endless supply available until the progress driven next leg of the story.

a Medicare ann would be timely tomorrow, lol

[TimmyTP]

Actually I just want them to have something new to crow about that would be a good start.
It is interesting that the PEB bulls wake up and start a rant and rave if someone dare's to post a slightly negative comment.
I think most people appreciate comments with substance, regardless of whether they support or conflict with their views.

I feel sure that an observation about lack of sales e.g. "I visited a nursing home in Florida with x residents last month. They explained to that doctors were advising against using Pacific Edge products, because..." would be well received.

Conversely, I respectfully suggest that comments to the effect of "some growth companies make lots of announcements and PEB is not doing that" adds nothing to the discussion.

I understand that some people experience a compulsion to "fill the silence". Perhaps others share my order of preference for music, then silence, with noise a distant third.

[Dentie]

It is interesting that the PEB bulls wake up and start a rant and rave if someone dare's to post a slightly negative comment.

No ranting or raving from me mate ... just been quietly interested in the PEB story since the SP was about 20c some years ago now. I think I have posted on here back along someways ...it is not just about the SP for me ...I just really like what they are trying to do for humanity (I know it may be hard for some to believe...but not every company's existence is founded solely on how much money they can make for their impatient shareholders).

[baller18]

[QUOTE=TimmyTP;468874]
I think most people appreciate comments with substance, regardless of whether they support or conflict with their views.

I feel sure that an observation about lack of sales e.g. "I visited a nursing home in Florida with x residents last month. They explained to that doctors were advising against using Pacific Edge products, because..." would be well received.

Conversely, I respectfully suggest that comments to the effect of "some growth companies make lots of announcements and PEB is not doing that" adds nothing to the discussion.

Word!!

[Joshuatree]

I understand that some people experience a compulsion to "fill the silence". Perhaps others share my order of preference for music, then silence, with noise a distant third.

Very nice:t_up:

[Joshuatree]

Good for you den tie i believe you mean that ;..win/win. Snapiti playing Bullrush Groundhogday for ever:)

[skid]

wow you are my hero dentie.
Does this mean you dont invest in companies that can have a negative impact on humanity.
Tabbaco, coke(sugar is very bad), oil companies, gambling.
Or are you really in it because you think it will make you moneyl

Is that really so hard to imagine? Or is it just a given that all investors will invest in any outfit that does horrible things just so they can make a buck--Some do ''think it through'' in terms of their ethics as well.
There are lots of different investors out there ,and lots of different sets of values. (You would never catch me investing in Monsanto,even if there was a buck to be made)
I think its a good start to look for good investments that also help humanity,and why not? (guess the real proof of the pudding though would be the reaction if someone discovered a cure for bladder cancer)

[Minerbarejet]

Is that really so hard to imagine? Or is it just a given that all investors will invest in any outfit that does horrible things just so they can make a buck--Some do ''think it through'' in terms of their ethics as well.
There are lots of different investors out there ,and lots of different sets of values. (You would never catch me investing in Monsanto,even if there was a buck to be made)
I think its a good start to look for good investments that also help humanity,and why not? (guess the real proof of the pudding though would be the reaction if someone discovered a cure for bladder cancer)
I hope that they do Skid, we all hope that all cancer can be cured. It will still need tests of one sort or another to determine if it is cancer or not. Dont think it will ever get to immunisation level in the near future and what to do with millions of long lasting elderly if it does.

[Dentie]

Does this mean you dont invest in companies that can have a negative impact on humanity.
Tabbaco, coke(sugar is very bad), oil companies, gambling.

You are correct!

Of course I invest to make money - but always with one eye on the other stuff.

[klid]

Actually I just want them to have something new to crow about that would be a good start.
It is interesting that the PEB bulls wake up and start a rant and rave if someone dare's to post a slightly negative comment.

haha well from my perspective... there are only two companies that I "like" and hold long term. This one and DIL, but I hear bad things from you about both all the time... so ... I draw some sort of conclusion ;)

[baller18]

Man is this what it does to a stock when it gets included into the index? The buying volume is insane.... Rightly now there are 2 buyers for a million parcel at 1.6 and another 250k at 1.58

[Dentie]

Man is this what it does to a stock when it gets included into the index? The buying volume is insane.... Rightly now there are 2 buyers for a million parcel at 1.6 and another 250k at 1.58

The problem is Baller... we don't have any of the XRO holders in our tent. If we did they would certainly see the value in PEB and we'd be eating our fish 'n chips, heading into the weekend, contemplating on how the SP got to $20!!

Someone's obviously happy to keep feeding the ducks.

[Xerof]

I would 'speculate' that a fair amount of the duck feeding emanates from those crossings at 137 last week, as well as our regular distribution network.

My understanding was they enter the index on Monday, so will we see buying then, or was that it today?

anyway, nice to see loose holdings going to good homes

[psychic]

$16m for the day. Intriguing vol with no price movement. It's like it is all by polite agreement

[Balance]

True, maybe I'm just too selective. Still off its high though. Shall se if this inclusion can bring her back up.

Plenty of sellers about as the indexing buyers got the millions of shares they needed reasonably effortlessly - in contrast to say Xero.

In the absence of more news and announcements, the stock may slide back to $1.42 which was the pre-index announcement price.

Does not change the fundamental story behind PEB.

[skid]

[QUOTE=Dentie;469098]The problem is Baller... we don't have any of the XRO holders in our tent. If we did they would certainly see the value in PEB and we'd be eating our fish 'n chips, heading into the weekend, contemplating on how the SP got to $20!!

I think Xro is much more speculative with a potentially bigger payday and potentially bigger crash--Its a gamblers dream.

PEB is speculative to the extent that sales are still an unknown but its growth is more likely to be slower but more consistent.

Its not as likely that the masses are going to say Yippee! go out and get the latest bladder cancer test--That potential is there for that to happen with XRO,(but it could get knocked off its perch much easier also)

[Balance]

I’m quietly hoping (fingers crossed) for a marketing up-date early next week to support the NZX50 induction. The company and science I’m very happy with; but the marketing is my main concern now. We have achieved some regulatory, validatory and acceptability milestones; but need those invoices going out the door so that the revenue can justify the share-price.

Healthscope partnered the stand at the USANZ conference, and for years now we have heard that “soon to be marketed in Spain and Portugal”, I hope the franchisees’ can be relied on to effectively market this product hard; and, not just add it to a list of available services; because success relies on the franchise model and not on Pacific Edge running test laboratories globally.

So my expectation is that they (PEL) are out there doing the BISO and that they will surprise us all soon.

Let's hope so.

Irrespective, it has had a great run and could be just consolidating before the next 100% run.

[nextbigthing]

I really struggle to understand the impatience of some, perhaps they never got a second cookie, too many energy drinks, not enough effort put into research ?

Good fundamentals, goal setting and achieving management, sales staff expanding, positive media guidance from the Chief Executive, lots of progress milestones planned for 2014.

Looking forward to full year reporting and updating my November DCF valuation of FY14 $1.70

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=450213&highlight=risk+%26amp%3B+reward#post450213

5618
Note: Source MarketsFT csv data, Yahoo data is corrupted for PEB.

Hey MAC,

What number of sales are you looking for in the next report? What numbers would you view as 1) concerning 2) OK 3) amazing?

Cheers, NBT

disc, hold.

[MAC]

Hey MAC,

What number of sales are you looking for in the next report? What numbers would you view as 1) concerning 2) OK 3) amazing?

Cheers, NBT

disc, hold.

Hi Nextbigthing,

When I crunch the sensitivities on a potential FY14 result even quite a wide range of possible revenue outcomes does not substantially influence the valuation of the stock, this is because the discounted present value of the $100M goal cashflows brought forward are relatively much larger.

But, from a sales progress kind of perspective, we will have to wait and see, DD has told us that the trajectory toward their goal is unknown. I believe this is his way of saying that there are factors outside of their control which affect timing, initial sales could be earlier could be later, further Obamacare requirements for Medicare may arise, the timing of major client agreements is entirely up to the clients, etc.

In my base case model I’ve allowed for FY14 revenues of NZ$5M (around 7,700 tests) which I would regard as a good result. Having said that on a sensitivity basis any revenue result between NZ$2M and the Harbour Asset Management estimate of NZ$7.5M has very little bearing on the valuation, and thus I don’t think this first real sales result will be at all meaningful to analysts really.

Because it is still early days for sales traction, and PEB are at the beginning of what’s probably an exponential, easing into it sort of a curve, my anticipation for 2014 is that new product launches and the adoption by analysts of the associated additional revenue streams will influence valuations more than the FY14 sales result, the HY15 result may be a bit more indicative.

regards, Mac

[Snow Leopard]

PEB currently has a market cap of about 4.5 times expected revenue in 4 years time.

PEB needs deals with significant healthcare providers in the U S of A who effectively mandate it's use and the sooner the better.

If they get them then PEB is great, otherwise...

Here's hoping
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[nextbigthing]

Thanks Mac for a good response.

I agree that mid to longer term (say 5 years) the result doesn't really matter. However I believe shorter term the market as a whole must have a figure at which they will want to see to prove some sales traction is beginning. Take it to the extremes, the shareprice would be hammered if it came out there were only 20 sales. Yet it would rocket if sales were 200000. So what level of sales is the market expecting?

If you're holding long term with no intention if selling, who cares. But then again if the results came out with no sales this time but then sales rocketed next year, it'd obviously be great to sell now, buy back in after the crash and then hold believing in the long term story.

Does anybody have any friends or relatives in the states who work in the industry and night have an idea as to how things are progressing?

[winner69]

PEB currently has a market cap of about 4.5 times expected revenue in 4 years time.

PEB needs deals with significant healthcare providers in the U S of A who effectively mandate it's use and the sooner the better.

If they get them then PEB is great, otherwise...

Here's hoping
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Which sort of suggests that the share price in 4 years time is unlikely to be 4 times what it is today ......bugger and bugger

Will still hold for the takeover / merger that might come next year ....that's the way it's heading methinks

And probably won't be much more than 3 bucks ....not 4 times but 2 times is OK

[klid]

I think there's going to be a lot more than 1,000. How do you arrive at such a small figure?

This is based on my belief that the product has not had the take up of a big proportion of urologyst.Urologists love it! - Why wouldn't they?

[nextbigthing]

Urologists love it! - Why wouldn't they?


Do you know for sure they love it? How?


They might not love it because it only serves one purpose - to detect cancer. The current standard does more than that. Therefore they may view it to be of limited use and only use it in specific cases where they're certain cancer is the likely cause and nothing else is.... Maybe this would explain a lower uptake.


Just throwing it out there, pays to keep an open mind.

[Minerbarejet]

Dont think we are actually expecting a huge takeup. The initial market penetrations were .5, 2, 5, 10, and 13% over 5 years starting in 2013. Thats not exactly a big proportion. They started marketing in July 2013 so presumably we can expect 9000 odd by July 2014 if it is all going to plan. However we have had a serious indication that several ? tens of thousands are involved which points to a slightly higher rate than expected.
We will just have to wait and see.
Has anyone seen any figures on market penetration for the other items to be brought on line? Or do they sort of ride piggyback along with cxbladder?

[amlagonda]

Winner 69 correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that forecast based purely on the cxbladder revenue stream? So any subsequent product releases such as cxcolorectal will also likely impact the sp once they are more measurable. Sorry new to this don't know how to insert the quote yet.

[MAC]

Dont think we are actually expecting a huge takeup. The initial market penetrations were .5, 2, 5, 10, and 13% over 5 years starting in 2013. Thats not exactly a big proportion. They started marketing in July 2013 so presumably we can expect 9000 odd by July 2014 if it is all going to plan. However we have had a serious indication that several ? tens of thousands are involved which points to a slightly higher rate than expected.
We will just have to wait and see.
Has anyone seen any figures on market penetration for the other items to be brought on line? Or do they sort of ride piggyback along with cxbladder?

I agree Miner it would be nice for us to know a little more, I’ve got a note book full of information requests on Cxcolorectal alone. It’s customary as I understand to release such information at the time of each product launch.

I’m looking forward also to the David Darling road show, although I hope it is open not just visits to the brokers like that Forsyth Barr thing a couple of weeks ago.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11219188

[baller18]

Dont think we are actually expecting a huge takeup. The initial market penetrations were .5, 2, 5, 10, and 13% over 5 years starting in 2013. Thats not exactly a big proportion. They started marketing in July 2013 so presumably we can expect 9000 odd by July 2014 if it is all going to plan. However we have had a serious indication that several ? tens of thousands are involved which points to a slightly higher rate than expected.
We will just have to wait and see.
Has anyone seen any figures on market penetration for the other items to be brought on line? Or do they sort of ride piggyback along with cxbladder?

If, I'm not wrong, the last report only indicated 3 sales, before the first national provider agreements were signed. Which means oct to july would mean each month they are incurring sales of roughly 1000 tests to get 9000 tests done by July.
I mean just crunching the numbers a bit, 1000 tests per month for a product which is 'starting' to get traction seems quite a bit don't you guys think? That is roughly 30 tests a day...
I am not too sure, if this analysis is right, believe me I would like to be definitely proved wrong as I just recently topped up, however, it does seem like quite a bit though.

However, if we look it from a different perspective, if these national provider agreements (63million) are bringing in sales for PEB which is 25% of the american population, and roughly 500k people are living with BC in states, then .25 x 500K gives you 125K cases of BC. A 1% market peneration would give PEB 1250 of sales... a 10% market penetration would give PEB 12.5K tests...
Hm, going by these numbers, ten's of thousands of tests, seems a bit too much...
(and yes BC patients undertake multiple tests in one year, lets just cancel that out with the slow traction of sales at the start, and i think the above analysis 'purely' on sales puts it in a rough ballpark)

However, there are one million people in the states presenting with haematuria, so we could possibly double the above numbers...

So not sure... Won't know till its reported I guess

Thoughts MAC & Hancocks?
I understand the science behind it is the best available on the market and etc, but if we are talking strictly about sales for PEB, don't you think sales will be very slow in the first year? Let alone 9000 or ten's of thousands for the first year?

[MAC]

The US lab, without the optional extension to expand on the same floor, is rated at 260,000 tests per annum or with some jiggery around 3,600 per week. This is a match up with the five year goal, so yes a fair way to go and to ramp up to $100M in revenues by HY18 before the extension is required.

So say 7,700 tests to FY14 from mid October through to the end of March would be with equal jiggery, around 330 tests per week or a lab utilisation of 9%. This would represent a good result, but then I would be entirely satisfied with only a thousand tests too.

Whether initial Medicare, Intermountain or Kaiser Permanente sales fall just inside FY14, probably not IMO, or fall within the HY15 reporting period really doesn’t matter one bit within the big picture nor does it matter to the valuation of the stock.

It is the new product launches that will see insto’s revaluing and buying more than on very early and arbitrary sales figures.

Take some care, trade PEB on initial sales at your peril, with up to three product launches possible this year which could happen on any particular day you may just find yourself on the platform watching the Pacific Edge express heading away up hill.

[Minerbarejet]

Dead right Mac

Be afraid - do not trade

[Whipmoney]

The US lab, without the optional extension to expand on the same floor, is rated at 260,000 tests per annum or with some jiggery around 3,600 per week. This is a match up with the five year goal, so yes a fair way to go and to ramp up to $100M in revenues by HY18 before the extension is required.

So say 7,700 tests to FY14 from mid October through to the end of March would be with equal jiggery, around 330 tests per week or a lab utilisation of 9%. This would represent a good result, but then I would be entirely satisfied with only a thousand tests too.

Just out of curiousity I looked at a comparable US biotech company and it took them four full quarters to go from 440 tests to 7000+ tests. At this number of tests their total product revenue in NZD was ~$5.65m (i.e. NZD $807 per test) and their total market cap was ~$329m NZD.

On a raw comparison this would mean that their market cap at the time was roughly 66.6% that of PEB's current market cap, which all things being all (obviously a huge assumption) would equate to an equivalent PEB share-price of $1.03.

Obviously i'm cognisant that this is somewhat of an apples to oranges exercise but these numbers may reasonably suggest that PEB is somewhat over-valued due to a substantial level of forward sales currently being priced in.



Whether initial Medicare, Intermountain or Kaiser Permanente sales fall just inside FY14, probably not IMO, or fall within the HY15 reporting period really doesn’t matter one bit within the big picture nor does it matter to the valuation of the stock. It is the new product launches that will see insto’s revaluing and buying more than on very early and arbitrary sales figures.

I would say that the timing of these agreements is highly material as to date much of the price movement on this stock has been announcement driven as opposed to be driven by confirmed sales or cash-flow. From my understanding of the US bio-tech sector, company valuations are generally based on revenue / revenue growth.



Take some care, trade PEB on initial sales at your peril, with up to three product launches possible this year which could happen on any particular day you may just find yourself on the platform watching the Pacific Edge express heading away up hill.

Sure, an announcement of a product launch will likely excite the market and lead to a sharp rise in the share-price however this company will really need to get some runs of the board at some stage (in terms of sales) in order to both maintain and growth its current valuation. A failure to demonstrate a significant level of sales traction will invariably lead to a sharp contraction to the current share-price.


Just my (worthless) 2 bitcoins...

[Casino]

pretty much some's up the situation.
I also think the PEB share price has gotten ahead of itself because of the lack of other biotech companies available to investors on the NZX.
Should Mr markets be disapointed with the next sales result and a sell off happens I believe it may present the last opportunity to purchase PEB for a reasonable price.
Me thinks that the lower than exspected sales results will be supported with positive announcements.

Would you top up your holding? If so, at what level?

[benjitara]

Would you top up your holding? If so, at what level?

At a level lower than perceived intrinsic value to the companies projected future revenues one would assume

[Casino]

Can that level be quantified?

[benjitara]

Can that level be quantified?

That's something all investors have to ask themselves in order to obtain value. But it's subjective not an exact science. Due diligence and a stiff drink.

[Dentie]

Do any of you experts have any theories as to this mornings 7c drop?

[Balance]

Do any of you experts have any theories as to this mornings 7c drop?

Answered 3 days ago, Dentie.


Plenty of sellers about as the indexing buyers got the millions of shares they needed reasonably effortlessly - in contrast to say Xero.

In the absence of more news and announcements, the stock may slide back to $1.42 which was the pre-index announcement price.

Does not change the fundamental story behind PEB.

[Xerof]

Yes, (but not an 'expert')

the gloom merchants posting over the weekend have frightened the horses

Balance's mentor would have said sell.....

[Dentie]

Thanks - appreciate my continuing education, but doesn't alter my hold strategy

[Balance]

Thanks - appreciate my continuing education, but doesn't alter my hold strategy

It's a great story, Dentie and I am also holding.

Remember that it is likely most of the posters on Sharetrader are traders so their focus is day to day, week to week movements.

[Minerbarejet]

This in from Cellmid News:


Pacific Edge is kicking goals with Cxbladder®
We continue to be impressed with our licensing partner,
Pacific Edge, and the speed with which they have been
able to achieve access to market in the USA and also in
New Zealand. We also understand that there is a time
lag between market access and significant sales, but
Pacific Edge is making all the right moves to become
market leader and be in prime revenue position in the
coming years. This will of course be particularly exciting
when Cellmid starts receiving royalty revenues.

So, can we all settle down and carry on as usual.:):):)

Not everything comes through the front door.

[Snow Leopard]

This in from Cellmid News:


Pacific Edge is kicking goals with Cxbladder®
We continue to be impressed with our licensing partner,
Pacific Edge, and the speed with which they have been
able to achieve access to market in the USA and also in
New Zealand. We also understand that there is a time
lag between market access and significant sales, but
Pacific Edge is making all the right moves to become
market leader and be in prime revenue position in the
coming years. This will of course be particularly exciting
when Cellmid starts receiving royalty revenues.

So, can we all settle down and carry on as usual.:):):)

Not everything comes through the front door.

So PEB have not yet sold anything, but the sales & marketing guys are burning through the cash?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Bobcat.]

Getting mighty close to my stop-loss at 147c.

Looks like the institutional buy-in due to NZX50 inclusion may be a few days off yet.

And it would seem that 150c is about to again exert (short-term?) price resistance.

[Xerof]

Getting mighty close to my stop-loss at 147c.

Looks like the institutional buy-in due to NZX50 inclusion may be a few days off yet.

And it would seem that 150c is about to again exert (short-term?) price resistance.


Bobcat, don't mention stop loss levels - there might be brokers watching :D

I think you'll find the tracking funds buy-in happened on Friday last

[Whipmoney]

Yes, (but not an 'expert')

the gloom merchants posting over the weekend have frightened the horses

Balance's mentor would have said sell.....

Who was Balance's mentor?

PS: I would hardly call my viewpoint that of a "gloom merchant" lol.

[Casino]

big difference between gloom and reality xerof

I think you're too obsessed about initial sales. What it comes down to is whether you believe in a (sustainable) competitive edge of the product.

[Casino]

what are you on about casino, if I was obsessed with initail sales I would not own the stock and certainly would not own the stock based on my belief that this next reporting will have little in the way of sales to crow about.
me thinks my exspectations on sales, this report, are far less than the markets and certainly far less than the bulls on this thread believe.

I would be delighted by significant sales numbers but I don't expect them to pick up until CMS coverage comes through. Would you agree that the stock would be worth at least $1.70 with revenue at 100m? Do you see much in the way to get to 100m?

[Whipmoney]

I would be delighted by significant sales numbers but I don't expect them to pick up until CMS coverage comes through. Would you agree that the stock would be worth at least $1.70 with revenue at 100m? Do you see much in the way to get to 100m?

If you believe it's worth $1.70 at $100m in sales which could be say 4.5 years away then at the current price of 1.46 your Annualised return is 3.44% per year, compounding over the next 4.5 years, which in my mind is a pretty lousey risk adjusted return.

[MAC]

I would be delighted by significant sales numbers but I don't expect them to pick up until CMS coverage comes through. Would you agree that the stock would be worth at least $1.70 with revenue at 100m? Do you see much in the way to get to 100m?

You mean this CMS coverage;

"Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder".

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/billing-policy/

There's really no harm in DYOR.

[Casino]

If you believe it's worth $1.70 at $100m in sales which could be say 4.5 years away then at the current price of 1.46 your Annualised return is 3.44% per year, compounding over the next 4.5 years, which in my mind is a pretty lousey risk adjusted return.

What if you could borrow at 1%? I see a lot of cheap money chasing low-yield investments. Some people may think that 100m is a conservative target, which is already in the bank.

Clarification: I bought at much lower prices and am happy to hold.

[skid]

Borrow money to buy a (somewhat)speculative share---Dangerous stuff

[Casino]

You mean this CMS coverage;

"Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder".

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/billing-policy/

There's really no harm in DYOR.

I've come across this line but I have not seen the corresponding NZX announcement. Can someone clarify? It may be free as part of their partner programme, not because of coverage?

[Casino]

Borrow money to buy a (somewhat)speculative share---Dangerous stuff

I would never endorse that and I have never done it myself. But there is a lot of that going on in the world.

[Copper]

It's a great story, Dentie and I am also holding.

Remember that it is likely most of the posters on Sharetrader are traders so their focus is day to day, week to week movements.

Balance,just a philosophical question.Most of posters on this site may or may not be traders and I would gather that you and others like me are holders.Do you have a thought as to where the price of this thing is at at the moment .We may see a drift to $1.25 or a short term rise to $1.70.Do you get a "She won't be right " feel somewhere in the mix.??..

[MAC]

I have to say today seems to be one of those days when the sheep's were running, how all you traders speculate, start to actually believe each other’s speculation, and then decide to follow each other like wee woolly things would make for a psychologists dream job.

5623

Sincerely though, I hope no newbie’s made any rash decisions on no news, filter the signals from the noise, the fundamentals and the signals remain as they did yesterday, onward and upward.

[Copper]

5623

Sincerely though, I hope no newbie’s made any rash decisions on no news, filter the signals from the noise, the fundamentals and the signals remain as they did yesterday, onward and upward.[/QUOTE]

Luv your quotes Mac but I hope it's not " Let's Go Forth, and come fifth.

[Bobcat.]

Did you cancel you stop BC?

Nope - I'm out for now - but planning to buy again on the way up, after new support is confirmed (possibly mid 130's?).

[Snow Leopard]

Pearls Before Swine (http://www.gocomics.com/pearlsbeforeswine/2014/03/17):
http://assets.amuniversal.com/617642107fb60131ff49005056a9545d

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Dont hear any trumpets blaring re inclusion in the Nzx50. Maybe they are so busy they dont have time for it at the moment with all the tests being done, presentations being made, hiring personnel.
Do like Cellmid's assessment of Peb making the right moves to be market leader and be in prime revenue position in the next few years. In July of 2013 Cellmid received a milestone payment for the first sales in the USA - cant see peb making a royalty payment for each sale on the day its done. Basic reasoning would indicate that this may take place annually in July from here on or at the end of the financial year

[Mista_Trix]

Surprised nobody has commented on the $1.5m that went through off market after close...

[Minerbarejet]

Surprised nobody has commented on the $1.5m that went through off market after close...Or the 300,000 that went through before it opened.

[Bobcat.]

It was just that 147 got hit and it didnt trigger a sell so thought you must of changed your plan.

Check your PM inbox, Turmeric.

[Whipmoney]

What if you could borrow at 1%? I see a lot of cheap money chasing low-yield investments. Some people may think that 100m is a conservative target, which is already in the bank.

Clarification: I bought at much lower prices and am happy to hold.

Aside from Governments.. which entity/organisation exactly has the capacity to borrow at 1% let alone the mandate to borrow to invest in a highly speculative stock such as PEB?

As for my example of a 3.44% annualised yield.. if that's a reasonable estimate of capital appreciation then it is a joke considering the inherent risk in this stock... You would be better placed putting your money in Genesis.

[Casino]

Aside from Governments.. which entity/organisation exactly has the capacity to borrow at 1% let alone the mandate to borrow to invest in a highly speculative stock such as PEB?

As for my example of a 3.44% annualised yield.. if that's a reasonable estimate of capital appreciation then it is a joke considering the inherent risk in this stock... You would be better placed putting your money in Genesis.

PEB doesn't seem to be an exception to the rule:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-24/record-rally-in-u-s-small-caps-sends-valuation-26-above-1990s.html

[Casino]

In the end, it comes down to fundamentals. With PEB you have a chance to be part of a nice story. We may see better entry points but you may also miss a few critical announcements.

[psychic]

Nothing new, but thought this a nice endorsement of cxbladder and the reason many here are hold long term

http://wharf42.co.nz/human-resource/throwing-high-grade-t1-diagnosis-mix/

[Dentie]

Nothing new, but thought this a nice endorsement of cxbladder and the reason many here are hold long term

http://wharf42.co.nz/human-resource/throwing-high-grade-t1-diagnosis-mix/

Yes - really nice endorsement Psychic .... and a great little story for PEB.

[winner69]

Maybe TRS / MEGA will replace PEB in the NZX50 when it is next reviewed

Mega has higher revenues and way it is heading a higher market cap when the merger goes ahead

[Xerof]

Oh winner, you're being mischievious again.

You know full well that the new entrant has to have significant volume history, has free float hurdles to jump, and needs to be superior to #45 to get in the index.

PEB, cetris paribus, has 4 below it who would go before it would.

By the time there is any danger of that happening, PEB will have either been taken over, or be somewhere around #20 :D

[Minerbarejet]

"Curiouser and curiouser" said Alice.
While most companies would be doing handsprings all over the countryside at inclusion in the nzx50, PEB seems to be taking a rather laid back ho hum approach. Considering the rapidity with which the Callaghan Innovation Award was posted it occurs to me that this could be a sign of a lot going on in PEB. We know they had two presentations on the USA and one in Australia in the last week or so. Think there could be some good outcomes from all that requiring undivided attention at the moment.

[MAC]

"Curiouser and curiouser" said Alice.
While most companies would be doing handsprings all over the countryside at inclusion in the nzx50, PEB seems to be taking a rather laid back ho hum approach. Considering the rapidity with which the Callaghan Innovation Award was posted it occurs to me that this could be a sign of a lot going on in PEB. We know they had two presentations on the USA and one in Australia in the last week or so. Think there could be some good outcomes from all that requiring undivided attention at the moment.

Well yes, when you have better things to do like developing leading edge tech to aid cancer sufferer’s it does make share market administrative matters trivial, but as Hancock’s says they just get on with the Biso.

This is ultimately why they do what they do;

http://wharf42.co.nz/human-resource/throwing-high-grade-t1-diagnosis-mix/

And on the business front, three big conference events with cumulatively hundreds if not thousands of urologists attending can only represent the best target market exposure one can get, be nice if each one of them went home after all that good wine and food and ordered their first test kit for a patient just like this one.

[Snow Leopard]

...it occurs to me that this could be a sign of a lot going on in PEB. We know they had two presentations on the USA and one in Australia in the last week or so. Think there could be some good outcomes from all that requiring undivided attention at the moment.


Well yes, when you have better things to do like developing leading edge tech to aid cancer sufferer’s it does make share market administrative matters trivial...

So there is so much good news happening that they do not have time to tell their shareholders the good news?

Yes, that makes perfect sense to me :mellow:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Cricketfan]

So there is so much good news happening that they do not have time to tell their shareholders the good news?

Yes, that makes perfect sense to me :mellow:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Just out of interest (as a reasonably newbie investor), what difference does it make whether they announce good news as soon as it happens rather than later? Will the end result to the share price not be about the same?

[Snow Leopard]

Just out of interest (as a reasonably newbie investor), what difference does it make whether they announce good news as soon as it happens rather than later? Will the end result to the share price not be about the same?

There is the requirement to keep the market informed so if there really is good news sloshing around bladder HQ they can either decide it is not material and thus that they can hold it in, or release it.

Given that the SP is declining then there are obviously no bladder leaks.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Just out of interest (as a reasonably newbie investor), what difference does it make whether they announce good news as soon as it happens rather than later? Will the end result to the share price not be about the same? Some shareholders would have been aware of the upcoming inclusion anyway- but not everybody belongs to ST so there could be significant numbers out there uninformed by means of the pacific edge website at this point. This company has surprised in the past which usually gives the shareprice a jolt. Delaying announcements could lead to leakage but in this instance its already in the public domain anyway from outside sources so it is not material.

[Balance]

Some shareholders would have been aware of the upcoming inclusion anyway- but not everybody belongs to ST so there could be significant numbers out there uninformed by means of the pacific edge website at this point. This company has surprised in the past which usually gives the shareprice a jolt. Delaying announcements could lead to leakage but in this instance its already in the public domain anyway from outside sources so it is not material.

The 'price jolts' are indicative of how well and tight PEB has kept sensitive information under wraps until it is released to the market. We should all be thankful for that when you contrast it with some other companies where their share prices have a mysterious ability to move ahead of an announcement.

Meanwhile, the sp drifting is hardly a surprise - it's post NZX50 index and I do think that the market is now waiting for hard data re sales before share price will move to next level, be it up or down.

My sense is that it will be up.

[JimHickey]

I was going to sell some of my holding to buy Genesis, unlikely to do that at these price levels though.

[couta1]

I was going to sell some of my holding to buy Genesis, unlikely to do that at these price levels though.
Genesis doesn't need to be paid for until about April 11th so you've got time on your side yet:cool:

[Goldstein]

I was going to sell some of my holding to buy Genesis, unlikely to do that at these price levels though.

JimHickey, I'm not really a guru, but you should probably make your decision based on the likley movements of each stock going forward.

Disc: I sold out of PEB at $1.67. My reason was that I thought it poor form for a start-up company director to sell shares at this stage. Initially I didn't think it mattered. But PEB is securing grants and may look to capital raise etc, and it didn't quite sit well with me. I hope they do well, and I think they have good products/research.

[Dentie]

minerbarejet....clear your PM please.

[Mista_Trix]

Getting ever closer to the $1.25(fair value IMHO) now some of the hype is being priced out.

It's on quite the downwards trend.

[winner69]

It's on quite the downwards trend.

Maybe hope as a strategy is starting to kick in

I'm hoping that all's OK and that we haven't been taken for a ride

[Dentie]

Maybe hope as a strategy is starting to kick in

I'm hoping that all's OK and that we haven't been taken for a ride

The 5k sitting there at 70c looks to me like a hope strategy...

[robbo24]

I'd be careful with buying at $1.25 - if it drops below $1.35 its broken its 120 day MA, which would be ominous considering both the RSI and MACD are currently negative and its most recent little rally failed to clear the resistance level of the 30 day MA, so if $1.35 doesnt provide support for the price it may fall a lot further. I would wait for confirmation that the $1.25 is the floor, and buy once the price heads back up and over the 120 day MA. 0

Hi KW, MACD and RSI aside, the old 120 day MA might be a little bit misleading given the rights issue.

The more recent 170> high was higher than the last one by the scale of the number of shares issued after the rights issue.

In which case, today's 125 should be stronger than the number arising from the pre-rights issue 125.

Big holder selling down and some macro forces having an effect.

You read it here first.

[couta1]

Hi KW, MACD and RSI aside, the old 120 day MA might be a little bit misleading given the rights issue.

The more recent 170> high was higher than the last one by the scale of the number of shares issued after the rights issue.

In which case, today's 125 should be stronger than the number arising from the pre-rights issue 125.

Big holder selling down and some macro forces having an effect.

You read it here first.
Dead right robbo re the macro forces,the teddy bears are having a tech picnic at the moment Peb,Xro,SLi all in the same boat but hopefully they will be heading back into the Forrest real soon for a winter nap

[robbo24]

Dead right robbo re the macro forces,the teddy bears are having a tech picnic at the moment Peb,Xro,SLi all in the same boat but hopefully they will be heading back into the Forrest real soon for a winter nap

Uh... Yeah that's what I meant to say...

[psychic]

Uh... Yeah that's what I meant to say...

lol Classic :)

[nextbigthing]

Someone is driving the price down ready for a takeover bid :cool:





Disc; wishful thinking of a holder.

[Dentie]

Someone is driving the price down ready for a takeover bid :cool:

Disc; wishful thinking of a holder.

It can only get "driven down" if the holders who are selling agree to it.

It appears there is still some shaking out to be done. I thought the traders had all run away to be honest - given the drop in price. Hard to believe there would still be any traders holding....but I suppose it's a matter of deciding just how much "Red coloured stock" they want to hold before it gets too hot.

I look forward to see events over the next few months ... that will be the telling factor here.

[Meister]

Is the most recent guidance from the Half Year report in December?
It would be nice to have slightly more regular updates but as far as I can tell we haven't heard anything that would indicate they are not on track.

I don't think we should hype up the coming report, but I am interested in why Snapiti is expecting such a disappointing one. Is this due to doubts about the product itself or just being realistic about how fast sales/adoption can occur? or is this purely based on the lack of news out of PEB?

[geo]

Is the most recent guidance from the Half Year report in December?
It would be nice to have slightly more regular updates but as far as I can tell we haven't heard anything that would indicate they are not on track.

I don't think we should hype up the coming report, but I am interested in why Snapiti is expecting such a disappointing one. Is this due to doubts about the product itself or just being realistic about how fast sales/adoption can occur? or is this purely based on the lack of news out of PEB?

Purely based on the lack of news.

[whatsup]

Is there "something " out there that we don't know about , or is this a reaction to PBT in Aussie ?

[Mista_Trix]

Incorrect. Its a steal if the fundamental value of the company over the longer term exceeds the marginal purchase price. Tsk tsk with your SP myopia :p

But there's a massive opportunity cost if your money would have done better elsewhere during that same period.

[Mista_Trix]

I don't really care that much about the SP today if I don't plan to sell for (say) 5 years time. I care about the fundamental value of the company, which will have a big influence on its future SP.

Will you still be saying that when the knives fall from the sky and there's red arrows cutting everyone's hands...??


EDIT: ... Sorry that sounds terribly alarmist, all I'm saying is that circumstances change (at some point in the future time-frame unknown and not speculated) and its very uncomfortable dealing with so much red.

[Balance]

But there's a massive opportunity cost if your money would have done better elsewhere during that same period.

You are assuming other opportunities are going to be profitable?

Not an argument which holds water unless you are consistently trading profitably.

[Dentie]

Hey c'mon, we're doing pretty good ... we've only dropped about 15% since getting onto the NZX50 (what...a week or so ago?).

I can hardly wait until the yankee investors come and get it to about $1. Of course, that will be followed by the eventual takeover bid at say, 80c, which will still represent a 400%+ yield for some.

Will be interesting to see who is currently selling ....

[Dentie]

I learnt a very good lesson about 2 years ago.
My accountant for 15 years(old stuck in his ways but honest) had a XZO sticker on his window.
I said to him do they run the software and he said yes it's the best thing since sliced bread.
I should have bought share's @ a dollar but I did not.
So I suggest all though's who want or have an investment in PEB do what I did, pick up the phone and talk to several urologist in NZ and 2 in the US.
From these discussions this thread is way more enthuastic than the uroligyst are about PEB.

Dare I say that is because they maybe not be offered a backhander to use the product. I have overseen the product in use first hand and it sure as hell beats the alternative.

If these influential people started to put their patients (or, in XRO's case - their end user clients) FIRST - instead of themselves, then all would be as it should be. It's a sad world when money becomes the driver of people's decisions...ahead of what is best for the end user!!

[Whipmoney]

Incorrect. Its a steal if the fundamental value of the company over the longer term exceeds the marginal purchase price. Tsk tsk with your SP myopia :p

Disagree, because you're above comment assumes that there is essentially no risk in the equation.

Based on the fundamentals (i.e. next to nothing in revenue, negative cash-flow, and a massive required growth factor (sales trajectory) to take this thing to $100m in sales, I would suggest that this company is still relatively over-valued.

Just because it "may" be worth more in the future doesn't mean that this is a fundamentally sound value play as there is a still significant risk that they cannot deliver.

[robbo24]

The rights issue was conducted 5 months ago. I use an EMA not a SMA so any effect on the price 5 months ago will be almost weighted out by the more recent price action which includes the rights issue.

Indeed, the SP hasn't been below there since the rights issue so it will be interesting. Still though, the 125 of today is worth more than that of old, but mcap anyway.

The next exciting announcement could change it all though... Either way hahaha

[Bobcat.]

It's interesting how the general mood of this thread has changed over the past month.

I'm waiting for this stock to get even more out of favour before buying into it again.

Technically, 125-128 could provide support (especially given its recent slide) but until I see that confirmed, I'm chasing better opportunities elsewhere.

Likely scenario IMO is a poor sales report, a few days after which it will be time to buy.

[Balance]

Dare I say that is because they maybe not be offered a backhander to use the product. I have overseen the product in use first hand and it sure as hell beats the alternative.

If these influential people started to put their patients (or, in XRO's case - their end user clients) FIRST - instead of themselves, then all would be as it should be. It's a sad world when money becomes the driver of people's decisions...ahead of what is best for the end user!!

Nothing new there, Dentie.

Brokers recommend stocks where they can make the most money, not clients making the most money.

Answer for PEB is to pay commissions to urologists - plenty of fat there to pay referral fees to the doctors and urologists.

[Dentie]

Nothing new there, Dentie.

Brokers recommend stocks where they can make the most money, not clients making the most money.

Answer for PEB is to pay commissions to urologists - plenty of fat there to pay referral fees to the doctors and urologists.

Don't want to be "apple pie-ish" or come across as naive either, because I have suffered first hand by brokers who fancy themselves as analysts and recommend stocks they know nothing about. (One that comes to mind is KIP - still sitting pretty much where it was 5 or 6 years ago when it was recommended to me.....glad I got off that horse a few months after that!!).

Anyway, I have had a gut full of these people (especially professionals) who use their privileged positions to take advantage of the rest of us who are relying on them to exercise their duty of care and fiduciary duty responsibly and for the benefit of us.

Watched a reply of "The smartest guys in the room" on the weekend - just to remind myself about who to Trust in the game of money. What a joke ....

Ok - the tirade is over ...back to work now!

[Balance]

Hi Balance, there is a wholesale price for the test whether it is undertaken by urologist or GP i.e. a margin for them; and, a retail price for others (purchase privately and have results sent to GP).

Would it be better to pay a referral fee - gets around thorny issue of what GPs and Urologists charge patients for the tests?

[nextbigthing]

I tend to agree with along the lines of Snapitis view. If someone has blood in their urine, I'd have thought they'd go for the camera first to work out what might be going on, then do the CX Bladder test after only if they thought it might be cancer. It would be expensive to check every possibility first using individual tests. Therefore usage might be lower than expected. Happy to be proven wrong!

Disc holding.

[blobbles]

I tend to agree with along the lines of Snapitis view. If someone has blood in their urine, I'd have thought they'd go for the camera first to work out what might be going on, then do the CX Bladder test after only if they thought it might be cancer. It would be expensive to check every possibility first using individual tests. Therefore usage might be lower than expected. Happy to be proven wrong!

Disc holding.

Remember that the detection rate of cystoscopy is not that flash, with CXBladder being better. Personally I would prefer they do the CXBladder test first, to tell me if it is the worst case or not. Cytology at the same time would mean they can tell if it is a number of other causes. Then after getting those results and it being inconclusive, it would be time for the camera up the pee pee (and the added expense).

That's how I would prefer it, I would rather they didn't put a camera up my pee pee at the first sign of hematuria just to realise that it was an infection that popping a few pills of antibiotics can fix. The infection would have been picked up by cytology and appears to be the most common cause. That way I would avoid the pain and an expensive bill doing away with the most common causes and the worst possible. Doing it your way to me seems like a surgeon performing open heart surgery to see what is going on in there when a murmur is detected!

[klid]

Jeeez!!! Look at what has happened to Prana Biotechnology PBT.ASX. OH MY. Has that influenced this stock today perhaps slightly?

[blobbles]

Wow, look at that price drop! I am gone a few days and come back to find the price waaaaayyy down. Glad the value hasn't changed :)

[baller18]

Only if we knew one of the laboratory technicians working at pennsylvania huh? Then we would all know the progress about sales! lol

[winner69]

Wow, look at that price drop! I am gone a few days and come back to find the price waaaaayyy down. Glad the value hasn't changed :)

That's a big assumption .... maybe 'value' as changed

But when I come to think about it isn't value and price the same thing

[klid]

Someone is driving the price down ready for a takeover bid :cool:





Disc; wishful thinking of a holder.

DD mentioned something about any takeover offer. What did he say??? Certainly wouldn't be a low one that gets accepted from what I read.

[robbo24]

Jeeez!!! Look at what has happened to Prana Biotechnology PBT.ASX. OH MY. Has that influenced this stock today perhaps slightly?

Studies show that their product doesn't [currently] work.

This is the polar opposite ​to CXBladder.

[croesus]

Now Im not hugely into charting, but I was taught gaps almost always need to be filled, who can see the gap back before Xmas when we had that huge up lift... looks to me there is one around 115/118.

Can any one advise, if my theory is right we need to drop to 115c, buts its all mumbo jumbo looking at cats entrails this charting nonsense, or is it ?

[blobbles]

That's a big assumption .... maybe 'value' as changed

But when I come to think about it isn't value and price the same thing

For me the value has slightly increased since I bought in at about 40c with each new study confirming the last and the successful setup of labs. Well, maybe I should call it potential value as it is unrealised.

If value and price were the same thing, nobody would ever make capital value on their shares based on research and future guesses :). And likely these forums would be useless as a place for discussing opinions on VALUE because the response to any opinion of over/under valuation would be "The price IS the value!". It is only the value if you sell the shares at that price :).

[warthog]

Some people here might remember a conspicuously-missing "member" called "Brighton_Early" who used to post here.

Now the PEB shareprice is well underwater for recent purchasers, consideration might be given to the intentions of "Brighton_Early" and other groupies here in jawboning PEB up in the first place.

[croesus]

Don't agree Warthog... smells like your crying over spilling your milk.

Those same investors would have been the smartest guys in the room, if we had had another couple of good news announcements and the price was now $2.50

which it will be, given patience....that's the same sort of bleating we had when XERO was bouncing under $5.

If you can't stand the heat.. ?

[klid]

Some people here might remember a conspicuously-missing "member" called "Brighton_Early" who used to post here.

Now the PEB shareprice is well underwater for recent purchasers, consideration might be given to the intentions of "Brighton_Early" and other groupies here in jawboning PEB up in the first place.

Yes I remember. It was meant to be over $2 by now.
I had faith too... :(

[Joshuatree]

Not wasting time "considering" or" intentions" and evolution ignores a few weeks in the scale of development. Its the Gold Standard we're after. Hard for a hog to get enough carbs; fern roots are good tho you have to root around:)

[klid]

Studies show that their product doesn't [currently] work.

This is the polar opposite ​to CXBladder.

Absolutely but still I imagine an effect as a result. Like the comment there by Moosie900: Never underestimate the fear that can be generated by falling stocks in the same sector.

[croesus]

Absolutely but still I imagine an effect as a result. Like the comment there by Moosie900: Never underestimate the fear that can be generated by falling stocks in the same sector.

I have met Moosie, apart from having integrity, he is a lot smarter then the persona he presents on this forum

[Minerbarejet]

Some people here might remember a conspicuously-missing "member" called "Brighton_Early" who used to post here.

Now the PEB shareprice is well underwater for recent purchasers, consideration might be given to the intentions of "Brighton_Early" and other groupies here in jawboning PEB up in the first place.Do you think the ramblings, good, bad and ugly, by various members of ST has an influence on the share price? Might suggest that a good proportion of owners of PEB have never heard of ST and probably wouldn't have anything to do with it anyway. This is not the centre of the PEB universe.
However it is a very useful tool to obtain a widespread range of sometimes very good comments regarding PEB
and other candidates. Its up to the individual to decide what actions to take.

[Longhaul]

Do you think the ramblings, good, bad and ugly, by various members of ST has an influence on the share price?

God help us if that is the case.

Disc. not a believer.

[geo]

That's a big assumption .... maybe 'value' as changed

But when I come to think about it isn't value and price the same thing

It's tough to value what you cant see. Until we see some sale numbers it's hard to value this stock was it value at 1.70 or is it value at 1.20.

Is it risky the essence of risk is uncertainty I think that we are over the uncertainty. DD would not have put himself on the line when he said to expect sales in the 10s of thousands.

[warthog]

Don't agree Warthog... smells like your crying over spilling your milk.

Those same investors would have been the smartest guys in the room, if we had had another couple of good news announcements and the price was now $2.50

The "smartest guys in the room" are those who sold PEB >$1.70 and will be back in once the dust as settled.

If you read back in the thread, you will see who they are.

[warthog]

Yes I remember. It was meant to be over $2 by now.
I had faith too... :(

If you believe croesus, it's time to mortgage the house and sink the lot into PEB.

[Minerbarejet]

It's tough to value what you cant see. Until we see some sale numbers it's hard to value this stock was it value at 1.70 or is it value at 1.20.

Is it risky the essence of risk is uncertainty I think that we are over the uncertainty. DD would not have put himself on the line when he said to expect sales in the 10s of thousands.
It was Swann not DD. Otago Daily Times Dec 2013. However that doesnt matter who said it but it was stated.
Think the indication was the above amount over the calendar year 2014 so dont expect them in May 2014.

[warthog]

Do you think the ramblings, good, bad and ugly, by various members of ST has an influence on the share price? Might suggest that a good proportion of owners of PEB have never heard of ST and probably wouldn't have anything to do with it anyway. This is not the centre of the PEB universe.
However it is a very useful tool to obtain a widespread range of sometimes very good comments regarding PEB
and other candidates. Its up to the individual to decide what actions to take.

The "ramblings", as you eloquently put it, of sharetrader members, will have somewhat of an impact on the shareprice of some equities, yes. In particular, stocks with very low liquidity. How much is anybody's guess.

Yes of course sharetrader has potentially useful discussion, and some very learned and experienced individuals here.

However, many of the better people have disappeared. They often found, I hear, the banter short on substance and long irrational blather. So after one too many evenings spent trying to inject some sense into the discussion, they choose alternative areas upon which to focus their thoughtfulness.

[warthog]

BE was dodgy, everyone should have known that after his DIL exploits. Instead he came on to this thread and took many people for a ride again. The biggest shame was that some "respectable" posters, knowing BEs history, actually supported his posts in this thread.

One thing that should not done though Warthog, is implicate those genuine posters here that invest in and support PEB, with anything BE said.

Nobody is criticising people who genuinely contribute here, Tumeric.

Just those whose intentions are to mislead, stroke their egos, and generally score points of anyone generous to give them the time of day.

It looks as if Brighton_Early is no longer registered here. That's dedication to free and open discussion for the benefit of everybody!

[warthog]

It's tough to value what you cant see. Until we see some sale numbers it's hard to value this stock was it value at 1.70 or is it value at 1.20.

Is it risky the essence of risk is uncertainty I think that we are over the uncertainty. DD would not have put himself on the line when he said to expect sales in the 10s of thousands.

Suggest you check out “Valuing dot coms when there is no CF to D” if you can find a copy of McKinsey Quarterly (2000).

[warthog]

Not wasting time "considering" or" intentions" and evolution ignores a few weeks in the scale of development. Its the Gold Standard we're after. Hard for a hog to get enough carbs; fern roots are good tho you have to root around:)

There is one aspect to PEB that many posters here do not seem to appreciate: not always the best product(s) win in the market.

The world isn't a free market. It is "owned" by interests, some of which have deeper and wider pockets than you can imagine. Many of these people/entities don't play by the rules many in little old NZ assume that the rest of the world follows.

Those here who have seen how business and politics work outside NZ will have a hard time squaring that up against PEB's "eventual success".

Not to say that PEB won't be valuable one day, it's just that despite (maybe) having the best products in the world, and being "world-famous in NZ", that day may never come.

[Snow Leopard]

Now Im not hugely into charting, but I was taught gaps almost always need to be filled, who can see the gap back before Xmas when we had that huge up lift... looks to me there is one around 115/118.

Can any one advise, if my theory is right we need to drop to 115c, buts its all mumbo jumbo looking at cats entrails this charting nonsense, or is it ?

The 'gap' as best as I can see is currently from $1.06 (High on 22-Oct-13) to $1.12 (Low on 06-Nov-13).
I am a firm believer that gap closing is just another instance of TA deluding themselves bu finding a name for everything.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Some people here might remember a conspicuously-missing "member" called "Brighton_Early" who used to post here.

Now the PEB shareprice is well underwater for recent purchasers, consideration might be given to the intentions of "Brighton_Early" and other groupies here in jawboning PEB up in the first place.

Hmm ... BE deleted / left same day as Sparky

[Joshuatree]

There is one aspect to PEB that many posters here do not seem to appreciate: not always the best product(s) win in the market.

The world isn't a free market. It is "owned" by interests, some of which have deeper and wider pockets than you can imagine. Many of these people/entities don't play by the rules many in little old NZ assume that the rest of the world follows.

Those here who have seen how business and politics work outside NZ will have a hard time squaring that up against PEB's "eventual success".

Not to say that PEB won't be valuable one day, it's just that despite (maybe) having the best products in the world, and being "world-famous in NZ", that day may never come.

Very pertinent reply warthog. PEB is in my spekky portfolio for that and other reasons and i have taken the top off at higher prices to further derisk. Hope she does benefit peoples health and our pockets to retirement but not banking on it.

[Minerbarejet]

The "ramblings", as you eloquently put it, of sharetrader members, will have somewhat of an impact on the shareprice of some equities, yes. In particular, stocks with very low liquidity. How much is anybody's guess.

Yes of course sharetrader has potentially useful discussion, and some very learned and experienced individuals here.

However, many of the better people have disappeared. They often found, I hear, the banter short on substance and long irrational blather. So after one too many evenings spent trying to inject some sense into the discussion, they choose alternative areas upon which to focus their thoughtfulness.I think a bit of banter/ blather is a good thing because when the little pearls of wisdom come along they stand out much more than if they were surrounded by sensible, grave, focussed, studious, thoughtful and invariably humourless postings all of equal quality. Nobody said we couldn't have a bit of fun, legpulling, innuendo, Vince will take care of it if it gets out of hand.
Noah Fence

[baller18]

Read an article the other day talking about biotech (drug) companies and only 1 out of 1000 make it out of a 2B or 3A trial. Does anyone have any other reads on diagnostic companies which is or has been in the similar stage PEB is at?

[Minerbarejet]

Hmm ... BE deleted / left same day as SparkyYou are onto it, mate.
Couple of Bright Sparks eh Winner:)

[warthog]

I think a bit of banter/ blather is a good thing because when the little pearls of wisdom come along they stand out much more than if they were surrounded by sensible, grave, focussed, studious, thoughtful and invariably humourless postings all of equal quality. Nobody said we couldn't have a bit of fun, legpulling, innuendo, Vince will take care of it if it gets out of hand.
Noah Fence

If you read carefully there is nothing the hog wrote that is inconsistent with your comments.

[Joshuatree]

Very interesting coincedence eh Winner...? ;)

You are onto it, mate.
Couple of Bright Sparks eh Winner:)

So what are you suggesting ,alluding to ,pray tell. I remember Sparky being an asset to share trader ; have trouble remembering B.E(did he take the wine bet with Snapiti?)

[Balance]

My recollection of both Sparky and Brighton Early postings are that they were very informative and showed insight which could only have been obtained from proper analysis and assessments of PEB.

I do not have reasons to doubt their integrity as we were all free to accept or reject their contributions.

[Minerbarejet]

You are onto it, mate.
Couple of Bright Sparks eh Winner:)

So what are you suggesting ,alluding to ,pray tell. I remember Sparky being an asset to share trader ; have trouble remembering B.E(did he take the wine bet with Snapiti?)Sparky was one of the biggest assets we ever had on this and other threads. His insights were priceless. I suspect from the tone of BE postings that there was a female involved? Drawing a rather long bow with Bright +Spark + both signing off - perhaps a husband and wife team off overseas on some of the profits from PEB?
Theory only - one of many no doubt.

[Joshuatree]

Hey I've got two houses for you to paint you've got a lot of spare time eh:)

[Minerbarejet]

Hey I've got two houses for you to paint you've got a lot of spare time eh:)
Sorry Im allergic to paint, - my wife is an artist:)

[robbo24]

Hold on, maybe I have gotten this all wrong. Wasn't BE the guy who declared that Milford was buying back into DIL and that the FMA were investigating Milford?

Hahaha - yes that was him.

He's probably set himself a countdown timer between posting and when he will receive a summons.

[couta1]

Sparky was one of the biggest assets we ever had on this and other threads. His insights were priceless. I suspect from the tone of BE postings that there was a female involved? Drawing a rather long bow with Bright +Spark + both signing off - perhaps a husband and wife team off overseas on some of the profits from PEB?
Theory only - one of many no doubt.
I doubt very much that Sparky has sold any of his Peb or Dil shares,he wasn't a trader but an FA investor,he even replaced his Ryman shares he had sold prior,the only shares he dumped were CNU for a loss along with others of us and I know Sparky held or is holding truckloads of all the before mentioned stocks,good on him for going long on his chosen shares

[robbo24]

So what I'm getting from this: PEB is still a good investment because the majority of posters think "Sparky the Clown" and his alter ego "Brighton Early" might, at a guess, still hold their shares in line with their expressed opinions about long-term holding?

Seems legit.

[Minerbarejet]

My theory is BE was Sparky's alter ego. He did it very well, until he gave up the entire thing by a) being too generous with the BE ego by paying up on his bet and b) shutting down both accounts at the exact same time.

Just my two (Canadian) cents :)
Its a wonder you have anything left after buying up all these PEB shares at ridiculous prices, Moosie.

[Minerbarejet]

Just because I bought them doesn't mean I held them Miner, you should know that ;)
Aye lad, Oill just be sittin here in me cave watchin yer jump aroond loik a flatulent magpie.

[Minerbarejet]

Watch out that gaseous magpie doesn't get into the cave and "release" in your vicinity Miner ;)Its actually not that black and white:)
Bit like PEB

[Dentie]

So, after all that, it seems to be a lot simpler than that, investors looking for dividend yield...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11230363

[couta1]

So, after all that, it seems to be a lot simpler than that, investors looking for dividend yield...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11230363
I'm going against this trend then as I'm selling a dividend paying stock in Telecom to buy my Genesis shares as all my growth shares are in the red except Sum,its easy to buy back Tel in a few weeks time as its price ain't going to move much anytime soon and its recently shed its dividend

[couta1]

Don't really buy that. Growth stocks worldwide have been hammered lately. Genesis ain't that big a float!
We will soon find out as those selling for Genesis only have a few days left in order to sell and settle in time for the float:cool:

[winner69]

Can't be that many punters buying Genesis shares then if sales of 'growth stocks' is anything to go by

Good story anyway

[Balance]

You read it here first - share price action suggests a big line of stock being shopped around.

Looking for a crossing of several million shares at $1.15 or $1.20 would be my guess.

[robbo24]

You read it here first - share price action suggests a big line of stock being shopped around.

Looking for a crossing of several million shares at $1.15 or $1.20 would be my guess.

What do you mean by "shopped around"?

[Joshuatree]

Means looking for a buyer for the lot or if not one several with the price negotiated.

[psychic]

So, Balance. Just so that I understand. Are you saying that a significant holder is feeding the market all the way down to say $1.20 where a deal has been struck for the remaining holding? Can't these sods negotiate a deal off market without upsetting the rest us or do these "crossings' have to be at mkt value for commercial/ tax reasons? As I think Snapiti alluded to , perhaps the Masfens getting out to chase something more speculative now that they are under the limit for disclosure?
You'd have thought the opportunity was there to fully exit when the NZX50 linked funds were taking them up at $1.45 or thereabouts

[psychic]

sorry JT / moosie , read your comments after posting

[Meister]

I had missed that Chris Swann quote from late December.
Mr Swann is confident the company will processing ''several tens of thousands of tests'' next year
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business

That does sound very confident.

[barney]

So, Balance. Just so that I understand. Are you saying that a significant holder is feeding the market all the way down to say $1.20 where a deal has been struck for the remaining holding? Can't these sods negotiate a deal off market without upsetting the rest us or do these "crossings' have to be at mkt value for commercial/ tax reasons? As I think Snapiti alluded to , perhaps the Masfens getting out to chase something more speculative now that they are under the limit for disclosure?
You'd have thought the opportunity was there to fully exit when the NZX50 linked funds were taking them up at $1.45 or thereabouts

With one of the Masfen's being a director, I would think they would still have to disclose any transactions no matter what size their holding. Related parties etc.

[Copper]

You read it here first - share price action suggests a big line of stock being shopped around.

Looking for a crossing of several million shares at $1.15 or $1.20 would be my guess.
I wonder if it's all or part of that 5 mill left from the earlier seller???

[winner69]

With one of the Masfen's being a director, I would think they would still have to disclose any transactions no matter what size their holding. Related parties etc.

Directors who have substantial holdings are often exempt from disclosing (little) stuff and are only bound by the SSH disclosure rules.

Least that is what somebody said on this thread a fe weeks ago

[croesus]

The pain continues for holders, down again today.... soon fear and panic could kick in, must still be a lot who hold from the 50 / 60 c days.. wondering should I bail and lock in my 100% profit

[Copper]

The pain continues for holders, down again today.... soon fear and panic could kick in, must still be a lot who hold from the 50 / 60 c days.. wondering should I bail and lock in my 100% profit

I got shot down a month or so back for inferring the stock looked to be in a gradual decline with lack of interest.If Balance is right and there is another large parcel doing the rounds that would take out any Insto thinking of buying and add to the weakness.IMHO....

[couta1]

Someone bidding for 50 k shares at 1.20 just moved their order down to 1.15,target price?

[Mista_Trix]

... and without numbers, its incredibly hard to assign 'value'

[croesus]

Buy side very week, only approx. 140,000, wanted at any price

[whatsup]

Seriously is there "SOMETHING " wrong with PEB apart from the S P , do we see sub $1.00 surely that must be fantastic value ?

[biker]

I would imagine the standard NZX question is not very far away, if not already sent. 20% drop in 10 days seems a bit excessive.

[Minerbarejet]

There are only 250000 shares that have changed hands, hardly the bigtime.

[Balance]

I wonder if it's all or part of that 5 mill left from the earlier seller???

I am making an inference - we have seen sp action like this before with PEB.

Sp falls out of bed, a big crossing takes place and then, sp recovers progressively.

[psychic]

I would imagine the standard NZX question is not very far away, if not already sent

Possible answer " um, we are being confused with PBL.AU and a lot of our newer investors don't really understand where we are at?

[silu]

I was only half joking when I said to a friend that I believe 80 cents would be fair value. This is what happens when the balloon isn't fed hot air from time to time.

[NZSilver]

Haha this thread has been slowly turning from very bullish outlook to a very bearish one. It's very easy at this point for mr market to loose all control, instincts and emotions kick in and people start selling - doing exactly the opposite of what they should. At this point nothing has changed, sp has dropped a bit (who knows why and who cares) take this as an opportunity to buy - remember the only share price that matters is what you buy and sell for - nothing in between. Try and take away emotions, peb has a very bright future.

[baller18]

lets see if a hammer plays out today for a reversal!!!

[Joh]

I don't see why people are panicking, yea there hasn't been any announcements but patience is a virtue?!? At the moment IMO is a great time to buy.... "Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" said a great man.

[Balance]

Haha this thread has been slowly turning from very bullish outlook to a very bearish one. It's very easy at this point for mr market to loose all control, instincts and emotions kick in and people start selling - doing exactly the opposite of what they should. At this point nothing has changed, sp has dropped a bit (who knows why and who cares) take this as an opportunity to buy - remember the only share price that matters is what you buy and sell for - nothing in between. Try and take away emotions, peb has a very bright future.

The doomsday merchants always come out when the sp is falling - saw it when Masfens were selling down at 60c etc.

[golden city]

it is like th WDT STORY., I COULD FALL TO 70C I THINK..it is not looking good., when director selling big parcels

[couta1]

Stabilization,what a wonderful thing:cool:

[Bobcat.]

Chart history depicts strong support between 115c and 120c. We are touching on that now. A purchase at today's prices with a stop loss at say 113c would IMO be a fairly safe bet.

(whoops - not 'bet', I mean 'investment'...my trading bias is showing).


And yes, it would not be surprising to see a large crossing sometime soon, which would again confirm that it's buy time.

BC

[psychic]

Boing, panic over...

[biker]

I COULD FALL TO 70C I THINK.

Gosh that sounds painful. best you don't think

[Heffner]

The gradual decrease in the share price has occurred due to no news, when the decrease is due to news then it is time to start being fearful. I bought in some time ago and sold enough shares late last year @ 159c to return me my entire initial investment, the remaining 60-70% have remained in my growth portfolio and will sit there for the long term.

In saying that, anyone who follows the entire biotechnology sector recieved a sharp reminder of how quickly things can go pear-shaped. PBT.ASX Prana Biotechnology (though at a different stage of development) had risen over 500% during the last six months and with one swift announcement of trials not delivering the results expected/hoped it dropped all the way back to 27c from 120c just last week. I am unsure if this has had any negative effect on PEB.

Heffner

[Minerbarejet]

Dont you just love the volatility in this share.
Up, down, flying around, looping the loop, etc
Disc: All belted in and holding on tight.:)

[nextbigthing]

Use F.A. to pick the stock and T.A. for the timing they say. Fundamentals haven't changed. So T.A. gurus, is this the correct timing to buy?

[Copper]

Dont you just love the volatility in this share.
Up, down, flying around, looping the loop, etc
Disc: All belted in and holding on tight.:)
Hope you can hang on tight cos if the possible placement doesn't come to pass then we may see this for days.Hope it's not like one of our other favourite stocks where every time the buyers built up,,,bang! Another selling rush.Can anyone tell whether it's the same broker selling the larger parcels at present.??

[robbo24]

Everyone on this thread is completely bipolar.

You all go from happy to angry to sad... Someone please post a picture of that flow diagram with investor emotions..

Just calm down please.

[Mista_Trix]

Blood on the streets .... and then there was none.

[Minerbarejet]

Think this share has gone bipolar.
Down 8cents to up5 cents in an hour. Whew

[couta1]

Yup, for sure, although I have no doubt there are people kicking themselves right now for selling.
Was going to pull the trigger but restrained myself:cool:

[nextbigthing]

Was going to pull the trigger but restrained myself:cool:

Buy or sell?

[couta1]

Buy or sell?
Sell not buy:cool:

[psychic]

Sell not buy:cool:

And there I was buying...
I suck at this

[Mista_Trix]

And there I was buying...
I suck at this

Come now, you know coutas rule is buy on the highs and sell on the lows.

Dito.

[nextbigthing]

And there I was buying...
I suck at this

Don't be so hard on yourself. The price has already bounced back up. Long term you'll probably be pretty happy with your purchase. Just because Couta was going to sell doesn't mean you're wrong!

[baller18]

Come now, you know coutas rule is buy on the highs and sell on the lows.

Dito.
lol.........

[psychic]

Well it is never my intention, but buy high sell low is something I seem to do pretty well
I'm worried then that I may now have set a new high for PEB:eek2:

[couta1]

my mistake really couta sell @ $1.25 why?
Was in the red as had recapitalized profit at $1.35 so would lose it all at $1.15,cheers

[baller18]

One thing I don't quite understand, the Friday before the nzx50 inclusion something like 8 million shares went through at $1.55, then the days after one or 2 million went through at the prices roughly at 1.5, 1.45 and so on. This would be institution buying right?
However, the SP started to decline on much smaller volumes? So these sellers would be small investors like ourselves?
So, how come the selling has stopped now? Or is it like some posters have said, price goes back up then the selling starts again?
If so, wouldn't this be manipulation of somesort?
Could someone explain this to me? If there is an explanation...

[couta1]

Come now, you know coutas rule is buy on the highs and sell on the lows.

Dito.
Hopefully a humorous intent here Mista Trix?

[Copper]

No doubt Couta will confirm, but given that he was responding to me I can only assume he meant sell. Glad you didnt couta! (strike 2 snap ;) )

EDIT: massive delay between posting and it actually coming through, does anyone else get this with ST? the other thing that often happens for me is double posts... I've noticed that seems to happen to quite a few others as well. Why is this?? a bug in the site?
At present there are about eighty people looking and ranting and raving and when that happens there seems to be delays.Sometimes I just go out and look back later and it has been posted.Double posts with me are usually getting frustrated that the thing may not have worked....

[couta1]

:p
Thats only a small % loss you normally hold out for a bigger loss than that before sell
IMHO time to buy not sell or getting very close anyways.
Snapiti would have been 10 k as my original holding bought at 64c was sold at $1.50 and repurchased at $1.35 thats where recapitilising can come unstuck when the price drops below your repurchase price:cool:

[Bobcat.]

Beware the battle within:

When a stock is out of favour, and you're holding, that is not the time to sell (even though psychologically you may feel very negative towards it).

Conversely, when others around you (work colleagues, taxi drivers, barmen, etc) are all very gun-ho about a stock (whether you're holding or not) and you get carried along with their 'sure-bet', that is not the time to buy (even though psychologically you may feel extremely positive towards it).

To triumph at this game, we must conquer the enemy within. Our natural tendencies and initial reaction to a share price movement and/or a ST Thread's prevailing opinion can be all it takes to set us up for a fall.

I find it more fruitful and satisfying to categorise stocks by industry, research a long list of candidates, assess each stock's fundamentals, produce a short list to put on watch, and then use charting / technical analysis to time my trades as best I can. Stop losses can be set on liquid stocks which also help to manage risk. Anything short of that raises the risk/reward ratio to the point of gambling.

It's all too easy to buy a stock on a whim (i.e. without the above discipline) and then as the sp drifts down to continue to hold, first wishfully then desperately, hoping for a turnaround...but he who ignores momentum does so at his peril.

IMO, with PEB today we have witnessed a momentum pivot to the upside, which had to come (it was just a matter of when). It is no longer time to sell.

BC

[warthog]

Hopefully a humorous intent here Mista Trix?

Not at all couta. Not having given it extensive examination, at first glance you appear to be an excellent inverse-indicator.

[Bobcat.]

One thing I don't quite understand, the Friday before the nzx50 inclusion something like 8 million shares went through at $1.55, then the days after one or 2 million went through at the prices roughly at 1.5, 1.45 and so on. This would be institution buying right?
However, the SP started to decline on much smaller volumes? So these sellers would be small investors like ourselves?
So, how come the selling has stopped now? Or is it like some posters have said, price goes back up then the selling starts again?
If so, wouldn't this be manipulation of somesort?
Could someone explain this to me? If there is an explanation...

My guess is an institution (or two?) had 120c as a pre-set trigger for a large order to buy PEB anywhere in the 120s. Just a guess. If anyone has a better explanation I'd be keen to hear it.

[couta1]

Well ican't never my intention, but buy high sell low is something I seem to do pretty well
I'm worried then that I may now have set a new high for PEB:eek2:
Brothers in Arms psychic we cant all be perfect like Mista Trix some of us are still learning but hey i have run a 2 hr 24 min marathon so have a lot of endurance:cool:

[youngatheart]

Could this just be a deceased puddy-tat going boing?:confused:

[psychic]

Could this just be a deceased puddy-tat going boing?:confused:

No , and stop it

[psychic]

Brothers in Arms psychic we cant all be perfect like Mista Trix some of us are still learning but hey i have run a 2 hr 24 min marathon so have a lot of endurance:cool:

What was chasing you mate?

[couta1]

Not at all couta. Not having given it extensive examination, at first glance you appear to be an excellent inverse-indicator.
Back to the pig pen warthog,keep that snout in your own pen:cool:

[Goldstein]

Interesting watching this today. Some people could do well to investigate the Monty Hall problem.

I.e., if there is new information which affects the probability of the desired outcome (SP rise), then act. Otherwise don't.

disc: Bailed out at $1.67 due to the new information of directors selling shares.

[couta1]

What was chasing you mate?
About 1000 other runners on the day,not a warthog

[Xerof]

Someone please post a picture of that flow diagram with investor emotions..

5650

I'm thinking we saw #12 this morning, currently at #13

[Mista_Trix]

Hopefully a humorous intent here Mista Trix?

Apologies I should have emoticon-ed :-S

NOTE: I'm not a serious guy, we're all a bit funny with our investing behaviours, its humorous to sometimes point it out :-S

[psychic]

About 1000 other runners on the day,not a warthog

:) Any madman that finishes a marathon gets my respect, particularly the driven one with a 1000 behind him. So well done eh.:t_up:

[robbo24]

5650

I'm thinking we saw #12 this morning, currently at #13

Hahaha this is a different one to your other one Xerof, the same concept tho!!

And yes I agree, number 13.

[SimonHouse]

5650

I'm thinking we saw #12 this morning, currently at #13

i love it! Thanks for posting, should be given to every investor when they open a broking account somewhere

[psychic]

Just stuck it on my wall, thanks xerof :)

[Xerof]

lol, it's not new to these threads, but I note you three are relatively new entrants, so you probably haven't seen the personalised ones Phaedrus used to post, using actual comments from poor unsuspecting posters to illustrate price movements.

Please treat it as light entertainment, I don't mean to be forecasting the next moves.

[nextbigthing]

Disc - not holding. DYOR

Crikey Moosie seeing all your recent disclosures, are you holding anything?

On second thoughts, please don't answer that question.

[Rego55]

I was a bit tentative but got in further yesterday @ 1.29. I'm a big fan of PEB and feel pretty strongly that over the next 12 - 24 months it's true value will become easier to see and hopefully 1.29 will be realised as a bargain.

Of course I also hold BLIS so I need something to get me out of the proverbial!

[Xerof]

Guess what's coming at 5.01 pm today.............

[SimonHouse]

Do tell us?

[psychic]

a beer?....

[psychic]

crikey - he's got me going...

[Xerof]

But suggest waiting for another day for confirmation of the capitulation trades today

5653

delivered early too!! it's not even beer o'clock yet

[Xerof]

it will be at this time tomorrow, if we get the RHS candle Moosie