PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

So getting back to last night are we still to assume that todays scintillating activity was a result of postings on ST or severely influenced by them. If so what did we say that triggered all that carryon?

[couta1]

Apologies I should have emoticon-ed :-S

NOTE: I'm not a serious guy, we're all a bit funny with our investing behaviours, its humorous to sometimes point it out :-S
No probs,I'm thinking of that sandy beach I could have been lying on had I not been so bullish on Chorus and Diligent last year,oh well every dog has his day as the saying goes:cool:

[Joshuatree]

You may have to push someone else off Sandy Beach as he/she is pretty popular, used to have a heart next to his her name(on H/C).:confused:

[Minerbarejet]

Good support at 1.28 this morning- sellers looking a bit thin as well

[golden city]

it is like crazy yesterday

[Balance]

Looks to me like the big seller has backed off - hope it's permanent but let's see.

Still expecting to see a big line of stock crossing.

[winner69]

Suggest you check out “Valuing dot coms when there is no CF to D” if you can find a copy of McKinsey Quarterly (2000).

Thanks warthog for reminding me about such articles

That whole Quarterly in 2000 is a fascinating read in retrospect

Articles like 'Going Mobile' and 'From retailing to e-tailing' good reads even 14 years on

[golden city]

i think the seller will comming back again ..once the price up a bit

[Xerof]

Looks to me like the big seller has backed off - hope it's permanent but let's see.

Still expecting to see a big line of stock crossing.

backed off or ideally finished..... yesterday told us where the market thinks value is for the moment - 1.20 to 1.30 zone - a nice high volume day that finally bought out demand

less convincing this morning, but at least we seem to have found a stabilisation area - those bids at 128 might be props too

A higher close today and/or Friday will be highly regarded

[golden city]

looks slow today

[couta1]

looks slow today
Slow is good:cool:

[Minerbarejet]

Probably the punters who sold out during yesterdays panicdemonium still trying to decide whether to cut their losses and buy back in with less shares.:)

[Snow Leopard]

So what is the name for todays candlestick pattern?

Traders Dilemma?

There must be some good news somewhere, shirley?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[alistair85]

What's peoples thoughts on getting in at these levels?

[SimonHouse]

It's the Kai Pa/Hakuna Matata candlestick! :D


Ok - I agree that's probably comment of the day.

[BlackPeter]

What's peoples thoughts on getting in at these levels?

Depends on whether you like to play roulette with your money. I have this company on my watchlist - and I think they have a good story and good management. However - I don't invest based on TA and have yet to find a method to justify its current price based on fundamentals. Might be wrong, but I still intend to keep out.

[Xerof]

It's the Kai Pa/Hakuna Matata candlestick! :D

yep, quite right moosie, it's also the 'come back tomorrow shirley' formation

[psychic]

It's the Kai Pa/Hakuna Matata candlestick! :D

Ka pai ???

[psychic]

Excellent! The Swahili I got, the typo of the te reo bit had me stressing you meant something else.
Cheers :]

[geo]

What's peoples thoughts on getting in at these levels?

You will get plenty of advice on this thread on doing your own research.
Bit like when is the best time to bet on a horse. Take a well bred thoroughbred young horse give it the best trainers and jockeys bring it along slowly, start it as a 2y old in some 1200m races and it wins 4 in a row. Everyone is now calling it a champion and betting on it. Trouble is it was bred to run 2000m and has never run it what would you do bet the house on it?? DYOR.

Peb is the same been brought along slowly by a bunch of brilliant scientists for the last 12-13 years past all the tests now ready to hand over to the management and sales people.

Do we know that they are up to it will they get the sales?? DYOR.

Disc: Holding plenty probable nowhere near Hancocks holding.

[geo]

What's peoples thoughts on getting in at these levels?

You will get plenty of advice on this thread on doing your own research.
Bit like when is the best time to bet on a horse. Take a well bred thoroughbred young horse give it the best trainers and jockeys bring it along slowly, start it as a 2y old in some 1200m races and it wins 4 in a row. Everyone is now calling it a champion and betting on it. Trouble is it was bred to run 2000m and has never run it what would you do bet the house on it?? DYOR.

Peb is the same been brought along slowly by a bunch of brilliant scientists for the last 12-13 years past all the tests now ready to hand over to the management and sales people.

Do we know that they are up to it will they get the sales?? DYOR.

Disc: Holding plenty probable nowhere near Hancocks holding.

[tunsbro]

this pretty much sums PEB up great product great management now show me the money(sales)
would not be the first great product that could not be turned into a successful business

That's a catch 22. If you wait for the proof, you'll mitigate your potential loss - but, also your potential gain.
Personally, I buy bios for the risk/reward ratio.
There are plenty of safer earners out there, but none of them have near the capital return potential as speculative/growth stocks (or the potential loss). I look at it this way, I can only lose 100%, but I could make 5 or more times that. To me, it's a risk worth taking.
If I wait for validation the major gains will already be off the table. Won't be retiring early off the back of that.

[psychic]

And much has been de-risked right? It becomes a waiting game, but get there we will.

[psychic]

We will see I guess. The drivers stack up so I can't see why they should not make money in time
And as for cures, well who knows. They have a lot of relevant data and will share in any findings ex Otago if you would believe cures can be found anywhere..

[Casino]

Hey guys, I've stayed out of this thread but will add my 2c.

No fortunes were ever made out of obscure cancer detection tests - that is not where the money is.

Now if PEB had created a drug to treat the obscure cancer...

Yes that is correct. The diagnostics market makes is only 50 billion per year employing only 250 000 people.

http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/default.aspx?indid=1575

[winner69]

Yes that is correct. The diagnostics market makes is only 50 billion per year employing only 250 000 people.

http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/default.aspx?indid=1575

Coincidence you provide a link to a page that has a potential suitor for PEB

Quest is 7 billion of that 50 billion industry sector

[Casino]

And there are LabCorp and Roche and and and

[Minerbarejet]

Coincidence you provide a link to a page that has a potential suitor for PEB

Quest is 7 billion of that 50 billion industry sector
It appears that Quest also uses a midkine marker from Cellmid on their lung cancer test just as Pacific Edge does with its Cxbladder test.
And on another matter PEB is to pay royalties semi annually to Cellmid.

[Minerbarejet]

This has to be tongue in cheek and you would need a licker licence

[etrader]

Any idea of timing on results forthcoming

[Minerbarejet]

Near the end of May if we go by last year.
This can easily be found at the Pacific Edge website under News and Media, Calendar of Events along with a lot of other information.
If in doubt, check it out.:)

[False Profit]

This has to be tongue in cheek and you would need a licker licence

Quote of the day for me :)

[Minerbarejet]

Pacific Edge has finally decided to announce the inclusion in the top 50 via its website. Just got an email re this.
It appears we have a new area called newsletter articles. Hopefully this may provide more ongoing information for shareholders

[MAC]

The latest Pacific Edge newsletter for those whom may be interested yet have not subscribed;

http://pacificedge.cmail1.com/t/ViewEmail/j/3BD85E7A2B57A340/2C6D0E117016A43BC67FD2F38AC4859C

[blobbles]

5650

I'm thinking we saw #12 this morning, currently at #13

Did we just hit 14?

[nextbigthing]

Did we just hit 14?

Hopefully :)

[skid]

Around 15 is the time to jump back in.

[skid]

Probably not going to be an great day for ''growth'' stocks as Nasdaq continued its slide last night along with the others.

[couta1]

Probably not going to be an great day for ''growth'' stocks as Nasdaq continued its slide last night along with the others.
Not just growth stocks Skid,most of the market looks like it had a couple of rounds with David Tua of old

[Microsloth]

Probably not going to be an great day for ''growth'' stocks as Nasdaq continued its slide last night along with the others.

except...

But the biotechnology (http://www.reuters.com/sectors/industries/overview?industryCode=159&lc=int_mb_1001) sector, which saw sharp declines in the past several sessions, ended higher with the Nasdaq biotech sector index .NBI up 0.5 percent at 2,367.94.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/07/us-markets-stocks-idUSBREA360QI20140407

[Dentie]

Next stop ....50c (or thereabouts)!!:scared:

[couta1]

Next stop ....50c (or thereabouts)!!:scared:
Nah $1.20 looks about the floor mate:cool:

[skid]

Probably the nasdaq will decide that, tonight.
This reminds me of the good ole GFC days when the first thing you check in the morning is the US markets,before even thinking about your particular stock. (not that Im saying its the same-there would be a way to go for that)

[Bobcat.]

hopefully it is a $1.20 as that will help form a double bottom on the charts

Today was the third time that PEB has bounced off 120c, and this time with little spark. Technically, that support level is getting weaker. A stop loss at 118c, or thereabouts would not be unwise. One can always buy into it again if and when it passes back through say 122c. For the loss of 4cps, risk is mitigated.

[Copper]

Today was the third time that PEB has bounced off 120c, and this time with little spark. Technically, that support level is getting weaker. A stop loss at 118c, or thereabouts would not be unwise. One can always buy into it again if and when it passes back through say 122c. For the loss of 4cps, risk is mitigated.
The follow through today doesn't lend itself to a bad night on the Nasdaq tonight.There seems to be shell shock in all the bio's and tech stock markets.

[Joh]

Hey PEBers, long time follower and second time poster. The SP has taken a bit of a hit obviously, not ideal IMO but potentially could be a great time to top up. My question is what are people's thoughts about the future sign ups of American insurance companies such as the US vets etc...??! Are we still hopeful of these contracts occurring and if so in what type of time frame are we thinking. I personally think there is still a lot more good news to come from this company, just a matter of being patient.

[Meister]

I was hopeful we might have had a Medicare announcement by now, but I do not think the lack of one yet is a bad sign. As you said, a matter of being patient.

[psychic]

Well, that that then. Floor gone, ughh

[Balance]

$1.14 offer and volume behind - something does not smell right to me.

[psychic]

Thankfully that 90k snapped up, but what the hell?

[baller18]

$1.14 offer and volume behind - something does not smell right to me.
Care to elaborate balance?

[golden city]

is it 50c really on the way

[Balance]

Care to elaborate balance?

Should have been a big line of stock crossed by now, I would have thought the way the sp has gone down so quickly.

[Longhaul]

Should have been a big line of stock crossed by now, I would have thought the way the sp has gone down so quickly.

Do you mean it's relatively low volume for such a big drop?

[MAC]

Hi Joh,welcome to you,

There’s quite a lot of guidance provided by Pacific Edge for 2014,

1. A conclusion to the CMS (Medicare/Medicaid) sign up process in early 2014 depending on Obamacare requirements, PEB are already a Medicare provider. As I understand there is an industry wide backlog of processing in satisfying Obamacare requirements so we must be patient.

2. The launch of new product Cxbladder(triage) in Q2, so any day now.

3. The launch of new product Cxbladder(predict) in Q4.

4. In October last year Pacific Edge told us that they were targeting sign up’s with Kaiser Permanente, Intermountain and others which would take 12 months of negotiations to conclude. So only seven months to run with this anticipation now.

5. The launch of new product Cxcolorectal which “has completed clinical trials and is preparing for commercial launch”.

6. “Tens of thousands of sales in 2014”, which I’m interpreting as calendar year guidance.

7. The opening up of new markets in Spain and possibly Asia.

I’m treating this "snakes n ladders" dip as a long term investment gift, 35% of recent highs and a DCF valuation of $1.70. Although I suspect that with the above guidance we may all be revising valuations upward at FY14 reporting in just six weeks time.

Disc: Buy (no change)

[Bobcat.]

Back in early November, 114/115 held before the sp rose to 160 and then later into the 170s. Not unwise to buy today into this support.

To mitigate risk, a stop loss say around 112 would limit any potential loss to 2%, with quite a bit of upside IMO. Risk / Reward looks manageable.

[Xerof]

The 'smell' is people pissing their pants......

[Balance]

The 'smell' is people pissing their pants......

Haha - you could well be right!

[Remote]

I'd say a couple of stops got triggered at 1.19 and hence the quick drop

[Lost in space]

The 'smell' is people pissing their pants......

From missing aim into their test kits or are we talking about stock holders? :-)

I've been hoovering up below 1.20 and havnt smelt anything on the email buy confirmations to date...

[golden city]

it looks like big shareholder are offloading still

[Joh]

Cheers Mac, yeh I have been watching this for a while. Patience is a virtue, I wish I had some spare cash to top up at these levels. Anyway I will keep watching and waiting for the announcements to come it's just a matter of when.

cheers,

JOH

[Dentie]

I'm still saying "next stop 50c"...

[Dentie]

So much for being part of the NZX50... do we really want to play in the big boys' sandpit...

[baller18]

whoa that was a fast recovery...

[baller18]

so many hammers, yet no hammer time yet

[ddrone]

so many hammers, yet no hammer time yet

Can you explain this a little more?

[etrader]

All played by the fund manager to obtain what they need at the prices they set

[skid]

Wow-this has been a good day not to have been watching closely

[alistair85]

It's a bit strange how most the other tech stocks bounced back today however PEB didn't. Without the late day rally it would have finished lower. Any ideas why this is in comparison to other tech stocks... xro, wyn etc.. Is this a worry?

[Minerbarejet]

It's a bit strange how most the other tech stocks bounced back today however PEB didn't. Without the late day rally it would have finished lower. Any ideas why this is in comparison to other tech stocks... xro, wyn etc.. Is this a worry?Perhaps there is no accounting for PEB :)

[Minerbarejet]

Just a suggestion Alistair85 with all the best of intent. If you havent already please visit the Pacific Edge Website for a comprehensive overview of the company's goals and aspirations and schedule of events.
Wading through this thread when the price was 40 - 60 cents would also help to understand how this share reacts in the market. Its not xro or wyn thats for sure. Moosie is right about the fear though. FONK and FOMO
are the drivers of the sharemarket bus. ( fear of not knowing and fear of missing out) Its actually a miracle anything gets traded at all.
Cheers
Noah Fence

[psychic]

50/50? Sweet, so my flipping a coin ain't that stupid :)

[Joshuatree]

Fantastic concise Informed response KW.Thank you for sharing all your experience in such a clear way:t_up:

[skid]

Cheers KW.

Tech stocks rebounding but pharmas still taking a hit:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-snaps-losing-streak-leads-202120866.html

Suggest others start tracking the ^NBI for some foresight of the day:

https://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/finance/details/?.b=details%2F%3F.b%3Dquotes%252f&.sy=%5ENBI&.intl=GB&.lang=en-gb

Bounce time anyone? :)

I would venture to say that if it doesnt bounce today -then I would be seriously worried

[Leftfield]

Thanks KW.

I agree with several of the previous posters…. great post KW, very helpful and constructive. :t_up:

[jonu]

I bought back in again this morning. I think the insto buyers would be looking to accumulate at these levels. Surprisingly low volume start, so if it is on their radar they maybe cautious about spooking the horses, cunning old wolves that they are!:confused:

[benjitara]

TA has its place but I don't use it to determine when to get into a stock or exit. The mob mentality is something that comes with the share market but it isn't something that effects the company that's been invested in. if a load of traders get opportunities elsewhere in the market and pull their money from PEB then that's fine, what I'm more interested in is PEB operating as a business. TA, it seems to me, can only ever by reactionary I've done a lot of stats into the tote at harness racing meetings ( the tote being a market ) I can tell you this. The tote IS ALWAYS WRONG because of the mob mentality associated with it.

[aGuyCalledBob]

Moosie. No offence. You seem like a good guy. But how often do your chart based predictions play out as you say they will? I'm honestly curious. I spent 12 months studying TA very intensely and quickly realised the whole thing was a load of bollocks without solid FA input. What's your take?

hopefully a lot better than 6 months ago...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9372-Worth-Researching

DYOR on posters on this forum ;)

[MAC]

For every traders win there’s a traders loss and on it goes imperpetuum, such a futile way to spend a life really, but the brokers and the tax man make good money.

5688

[couta1]

Hey Mac I wonder if the tax man makes any money at the end of the day after all those losses are realized or carried forward

[Copper]

I bought back in again this morning. I think the insto buyers would be looking to accumulate at these levels. Surprisingly low volume start, so if it is on their radar they maybe cautious about spooking the horses, cunning old wolves that they are!:confused:
This would be the level that the large sellers would reappear if they are still in the market.I am not sure whether their window to sell is still there.Yesterdays hiccup where Balance smelt a rat may have been them testing the buyers....

[Whipmoney]

Spent many years now using TA. If you expect it to "predict" anything then yes, you will find it a load of bollocks. Especially in the short term. However, over a longer term time frame it becomes almost foolproof in terms of risk management. While it does not "predict" or guarantee that some predetermined thing will eventuate, it does provide a very accurate estimate of the "probability" of the event occurring. ie. "is it more likely than not that the longterm uptrend/downtrend will continue despite the current fluctuation in price".

Whilst I'm not completely against the concept of TA I find some of your comments re: event probability difficult to swallow as all TA data is based on past prices and as such they are unlikely to include 'Grey Swan' events, i.e. events that are unlikely (or where it is impossible to accurately determine when they will occur) but which have a huge impact. An relevant example for PEB would be the signing of a CMS agreement. Sure like all past prices the most recent prices include a significant element of expectation however I would reason that given the nature of Grey Swan events they are infrequently priced in.

When they are priced in (as a CMS agreement may have been when the stock was around $1.70) then suddenly TA and FA are at odds, as the under FA the stock is over-priced relative to the expected return and under TA the stock may be showing as bullish (trending upwards) and therefore appear to be a reasonable buy.

As such I cannot see how these two systems are always congruent.

Another issue I have with TA (and again this can be used in the context of PEB) is that under FA (with all things being equal) a stock is less risky when its price falls, as there is less room for it to drop, and its value proposition increases relative to its price. Under TA if a stock is in decline then warning bells go off invariably tell the buyer to stay away.

For example, with the current situation for PEB as the stock came down then suddenly its a more attractive FA play as you are paying less for more upside, with the downside being somewhat migitated by an underlying "fundamental" value.



Like all "big data" analysis, the less data you have the less accurate it becomes, which is why it is most useful for long term traders/investors not short term ones. (And by long term I mean months and years not days and weeks).

I agree that TA is probably best used the long to medium term as short-term the market is likely to be too efficient for this tool to be of any value.



TA is an invaluable tool in managing your portfolio risk and determining when to enter and exit a stock (over the long term). It is also a fantastic tool for stock selection - it enables me to choose between a list of stocks that I have as investment options (selected based on FA) and to maintain a portfolio of stocks that are in strong uptrends.

If you had of been watching PEB in the final week(s) before its first US contract announcement then TA would have likely told you to stay clear (except possibly for the final day). FA on the other hand may have told you that this company has rather promising prospects in the global diagnostic space, and when the Grey Swan hit those already in it (principallly FA Investors) profited more than those TA'ers who jumped in later on the up-trend. An even wiser FA investor would have sold when the stock got to $1.50-$1.70 as it seemed relatively over-valued to its peers relative to its sales performance.




For me, the addition of TA has supercharged my investment returns. If you havent figured out how best to use TA, then I suggest you keep trying - there is definitely a place for it.

If it works then I'm glad and I like to keep somewhat of an open mind. I do think it provides a good indication of market sentiment and that is something I learnt through the DIL saga. However to be fair, looking back I now consider that a furthering of my understanding of market psychology as opposed to a simple function of a downtrend in the charts. Sure the charts reflect the sentiment/psychology but I'm now cognisant that I need to predict how market players will respond to certain events/announcements. This is something i'm actively looking to add to my FA repertoire and I think this is essentially this is what made Soros better than Buffet.



Whether a share price is over-valued or under-valued based on FA is meaningless - the market trend is what is important in the long term. The best companies can be in a downtrend, and the worst companies can be in an uptrend. You just have to know how to ride the waves so you don't wipe out, and likewise don't stay sitting on the beach

This is blatantly not true. Warren Buffet has listed the annual performance records of Graham's disciples in the Intelligent Investor and their records stack up and are far superior to the S&P returns over those periods. The only common denominator in the group is that they use 'Value investing' as advocated by Benjamin Graham. Their stock selection policies were generally quite different, and some focused on many stocks and some on a few. Some domestic and some international.

I have yet to see a similar group record for a school of TA investors.

[Whipmoney]

PS: another query/issue I have with applying TA to stocks on the NZX is that these markets are dominated by larger players and based on my knowledge of the industry almost all of them don't use TA.

As such (and mentioned above) when a stock is in a TA downtrend and gets cheaper and cheaper, then this only invariably increases the probability that a fund will accumulate (as they are basing their decisions around FA valuations where cheaper is better).

I would imagine that this means TA is less effective in this market, particularly as there are relatively fewer traders on the NZX and that there is a general inability to short-stocks in downtrends.

Just a thought.

[Snow Leopard]

I just love these FA/TA 'discussions'. :p

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

PS: another query/issue I have with applying TA to stocks on the NZX is that these markets are dominated by larger players and based on my knowledge of the industry almost all of them don't use TA.

As such (and mentioned above) when a stock is in a TA downtrend and gets cheaper and cheaper, then this only invariably increases the probability that a fund will accumulate (as they are basing their decisions around FA valuations where cheaper is better).

I would imagine that this means TA is less effective in this market, particularly as there are relatively fewer traders on the NZX and that there is a general inability to short-stocks in downtrends.

Just a thought.

Globally TA plays a large role in fund managers operations

http://www3.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/Forschung/Diskussionspapiere/dp-446.pdf

Abstract: This paper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majority
of whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis is
the most important form of analysis and up to this horizon it is thus more important than fundamental
analysis. Technicians are as experienced, as educated, as successful in their career
and largely just as overconfident in decision-making as others. However, technical analysis is
somewhat more popular in smaller asset management firms. What we find most significant is
the relation of technical analysis with the view that prices are heavily determined by psychological
influences. Consequently, technicians apply trend-following behavior.

OK - the paper covers 5 large markets but I would think NZ fund managers operate the same way. I know one large fund manager in NZ who has a Technical Analyst on the payroll and gets paid very well for what he loves doing. Also When I was a trustee for a pretty large pension fund the investment manager would wheel in a guy with plenty of technical analysis experience to bambozzle most of the other trustees but boy was he impressive.

Every analyst report seems to show a chart with lots of squiggly lines on them (bet even MAC looks at them) ... sort of suggests that TA is used in the organisation

[Bobcat.]

As I stated, I use FA to pick stocks. If I run a stock screen on my parameters I will get about 100 odd stocks from the ASX.

What do you use as a stock screening tool for the asx, KW? I'm looking for one that screens against the following parameters:

- EPS (actual and estimate)
- P/E ratios (current, estimate, industry relative)
- Price/Book value
- Gross Yield
- Interest/debt cover
- Market Cap
- and more.

Cheers,

BC

[NZSilver]

Where do you get these screens from? do you pay for them?

[Whipmoney]

Globally TA plays a large role in fund managers operations

http://www3.wiwi.uni-hannover.de/Forschung/Diskussionspapiere/dp-446.pdf

Abstract: This paper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majority
of whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis is
the most important form of analysis and up to this horizon it is thus more important than fundamental
analysis. Technicians are as experienced, as educated, as successful in their career
and largely just as overconfident in decision-making as others. However, technical analysis is
somewhat more popular in smaller asset management firms. What we find most significant is
the relation of technical analysis with the view that prices are heavily determined by psychological
influences. Consequently, technicians apply trend-following behavior.

OK - the paper covers 5 large markets but I would think NZ fund managers operate the same way. I know one large fund manager in NZ who has a Technical Analyst on the payroll and gets paid very well for what he loves doing. Also When I was a trustee for a pretty large pension fund the investment manager would wheel in a guy with plenty of technical analysis experience to bambozzle most of the other trustees but boy was he impressive.

Every analyst report seems to show a chart with lots of squiggly lines on them (bet even MAC looks at them) ... sort of suggests that TA is used in the organisation

1) Whilst I haven't read the above paper the sample selection may have been actively based on 692 funds that predominately use TA.
2) 692 is a small number of funds in the global (or at least 5 nation) population.
3) What kind of funds are these? If they are predominately global-macro (e.g. Currency and/or commodity) funds then I am not surprised that TA has been factored in as it about the only tool that one can use in the short-term, short of predicting weather patterns and macro-economic announcements.
4) If they these funds are simply long in stocks then what is their definition of Technical Analysis? Is this charting or actually rather 'Quantitive Analysis'?

In terms of the NZ market I know/have met several Equity analysts/Funds management people (for global/domestic stocks) and almost none of them apply TA (in the charting sense) or know anybody who does..

With regard to your comment on squiggly lines in Analyst/Brokerage reports I haven't seen any charts in any of the reports I've read from well recognised research firms. If I was reading Gold/Silver articles on MarketOracle then this might be a different story...

Closing point: There is little academic evidence/proof that TA works. Part of the problem is that it is difficult to back-test this (which is quite different to Quant Analysis which can easily be back-tested). If it did work in most scenarios then everybody would do it thereby eliminating its effectiveness.

That being said I'm sure there's some great TA'ers out there (possibly KW by the sounds of it) and much like FA there is an element of Talent or Skill applicable. I certainly don't rule it out as a useful tool to aid FA decisions and I must concede that I do look at charts/trends when considering an entry/exit however I tend to get this wrong often (albeit generally right on my long-term calls).. but then again if I got most of my timing calls right I would be a multi-millionaire rather quickly.

[Bobcat.]

Commsec stock screening requires registration, which requires applicants to be Australian residents.

Anyone aware of an alternative?

[Schrodinger]

Hmm try and open an Aussie bank account with the CBA, once you have one you might be able to get around this.

I have access to the Commsec tools and they are very good.

[Cricketfan]

After a lot of analysis and reading on TA, I conclude that it is a great idea that is predominantly used for the wrong purposes. People assume that TA means buying and selling based on candle formations, price breakouts above predetermined targets, and indicator movements. This is what most of the books on the subject talk about. But in practice all those "theories" seldom work because experienced traders see the retail investors coming and take them to the cleaners.

I've been following this discussion with interest - thank you (and Whipmoney) for the well-written posts.

You say you don't use TA to buy/sell based on "candle formations, price breakouts above predetermined targets, and indicator movements" but instead rely on "big data". Do you have a specific example you could share with us that highlights how you used your application of TA that proved to be superior to just using FA, or using the 'purist' version of TA?

[Schrodinger]

agreed =).....

[Joshuatree]

No, you're on the right trail(as usual:confused:)

[Whipmoney]

I am in violent agreement with you, that's why I said "It does not predict news (unless insider trading is occurring)". In PEBs case, the lack of TA warning that deals were being done is not the problem here, more the lack of market signalling from the company as to its progress. When things come out of the blue then all bets are off. However, in 99% of the time most company news is relatively expected and is priced in by the market. So in that respect, TA can anticipate future news, provided it is expected. Citing PEB as one example of TA being rubbish because it didnt predict one event does not negate the hundreds and thousands of stocks where TA works spectacularly. For every PEB you can find, I can counter with hundreds of other biotech and other stocks where TA would have saved your skin.

If this were true then wouldn't 99% of announcements have a nil effect on price as the market’s expectations would invariably be met? I can't say that I’ve seen even a fraction of the announcements out there but from what I have witnessed there is generally some sort of reaction from the market on the day of announcements and the days thereafter.

Also to say that PEB is outlier just because TA didn't predict their first announcement is somewhat of a self-defeating argument as that is the nature of Grey Swans.. i.e. they are hard to predict (or time accurately) but even still the FA investors automatically position themselves to benefit from these events which are in essence a normal part of the commercialisation process for PEB. I haven't even touched on black swans (events that are near impossible/extremely difficult to foresee) yet which have the biggest impact so all in all I would seriously question the number 99%, and even if this number does stand then it is still the 1% of events that have the biggest impact.

DIL was probably another good example, as from my understanding nobody foresaw that the company would need to restate their accounts, and there was a drastic correction in their price once this was announced. As you stated on that forum TA was probably useful to understand when to get back in though, although I still seem to remember many of the other TA'ers holding out for $2 when I brought back in on the turn.



You and I have a very different concept of FA - PEB offers no metrics on which to value it, fundamental or otherwise. It has no revenues, no earnings, not even a sales and profit forecast. There is no FA for this stock. It is a speculative stock and as such, any "value" assigned is based purely on guesswork.

On the contrary, PEB has provided us with a sales guidance of $100m within five years in addition to a specified product price and through comparative analysis one can begin to make assumptions about gross margin and SG&A expenditure to start to map out their profitability. Obviously there are a lot of assumptions inherent in such a process but if one were to model the FCFF & growth assumptions then a Net Present Value can be calculated and compared to the current Market Cap. Alternatively the company’s performance to date can be measured against its peers who provide for a useful historical precedent. It is on this basis that I saw it as extremely overvalued at $1.50+.



If you believe this then I presume you are presently buying up tons of Prana stock? Personally I buy stocks where the price goes up. The only people who make money on falling stock prices are shorters. Stock prices can go to zero - look at Forge. "less risky because the price has fallen?" - you are gambling that the price fall is only temporary and not the result of a more serious problem. If you want to see how much you can lose on a stock that looks good "FA" wise then look at LYC - capital destruction on that scale has not been seen since the dot.com days. Ask yourself, if you were in LYC when would you have gotten out?

I haven’t heard of Prana and LYC don’t really look at the ASX so I can’t really comment, but in terms of capital destruction then generally this is a function of the credit/business risks of a stock which is something I consider when I undertake my FA. Volatility on the other hand (variance in the stock) is more a measure of the market, and as I mentioned before you’re downside risk is lessened when a stock is cheaper and conversely your upside potential is improved. In response to your comment about falling prices, personally I often relish when the price stays depressed (relative to value) as it gives me a great opportunity to accumulate as I did with PEB late last year.



I use "value investing". I am a Graham disciple. However Value Investing is not the same thing as "buy and hold forever regardless of any change in circumstances". At some point, either the company performance or the market sentiment will change, and you need to know when to get out. Buffets #1 and #2 rule of "dont lose money" overrides everything else.

I agree with your bold type however Graham’s school of value investing clearly advocates that Market Sentiment is irrelevant (simply refer to his allegory of Mr Market in the Intelligent Investor). Value is a function of the intrinsic worth of a business and therefore is completely separate to the (price as determined by the market). Graham/Buffet both advocate buying stocks where the value is below the price, with a margin of safety built into the equation. When the underlying business changes however they will invariably revise their valuations. With regard to Buffets rule I’m sure he doesn’t mean sell when there’s a downtrend as if you buy intelligently then you will generally only lose money if you sell at the wrong time (i.e when you listen to the market).



As I stated, I use FA to pick stocks. If I run a stock screen on my parameters I will get about 100 odd stocks from the ASX. I then apply a TA filter, and about half of them will be eliminated. From there, I look to both FA and TA to find the best performing stocks, or the ones with the most promise. When they take off I run with it and look for top up opportunities. When they decline, I bail and put the money into something else that's on my list. My goal is not to predict market reactions to news (I don't profess to be psychic or arrogant enough to believe that I have an exceptional talent like Buffet or Soros) but simply to not let my capital languish in stocks that are not performing (there are always better investment options) and to never lose money (or at least keep losses to a bare minimum). That I believe is realistic.

Fair enough, I can't argue with that however it is a deviation from pure FA (i.e. value investing) which for the record I can't say I follow given I use more modern valuation methods (e.g. DCF).



On the subject of fund managers, it is not that they don't use TA, its that they can't use TA effectively. It is impossible to buy/sell large volumes of stock quickly (especially without moving the price). TA is a little gift for small investors who have the ability to move in and out of stocks quickly. Once you have a large portfolio and/or large holdings it becomes far more difficult. Its one reason why I stay away from very illiquid companies these days. Arguably the lack of ability to buy/sell quickly based on TA is one of the reasons why fund managers cant outperform the index - they are forced into buying and holding duds simply because they cant offload crap stocks quickly.

Agreed and noted in my earlier post re: Currency and Commodities which are very deep and liquid markets (i.e. Trillions).



A great investor uses every tool at his/her disposal. If you use only FA or only TA, then that saying "when you only have a hammer everything looks like a nail" applies. But if you pick the right tool for the right job, you will find you get much better outcomes. So there should be no "debate" on the merits of FA vs TA, or any supposition that followers of one or the other are stupid - its the combination of both that will see you succeed.

I somewhat agree but historical record is actually somewhat mixed. Buffet and Charlie Munger have exceptional trading records using pure FA, although the greatest modern investor is arguably Soros who uses FA and his own theory (reflectivity). The greatest investor of all time is argued to be Munehisa Honma of Japan who was one of the front-runners in charting (candle-sticks etc) and whom was primarily a pure TA trader with a little FA (i.e. reconnaissance) thrown into the mix.

[Whipmoney]

The real value in TA comes from the notion of "big data". The more data you have, and the longer you have it, the easier it is to assign probability to an expected outcome, because humans are notoriously predictable and behave the same over time. TA is the big data of the share market - a visual representation of every single trade made in every time period. It is the only thing which accurately measures market sentiment and psychology. And anyone familiar with behavioural finance will understand that sentiment and psychology drive the market far more than logical analysis of P/E ratios and the like (see run ups in SAAS stocks and the subsequent run down as an example).

I agree but what you are essentially moving towards here is Quantiative Analysis. Many large quant funds take a bunch of hard data and run overlays to generate viable trading strategies. Some of their overlays are quantative (e.g. stastical movments/trends) and some are fundamental (i.e. P/E ratios). They do all this in the hope of finding "alpha" i.e. the excess return over and above the market benchmark (beta) and many of these make big money doing this.

I guess what you are saying though is that this can be done more heuristcally through having a good eye for the charts and I can agree with this. People like Soros have a great eye/understanding of the psychology of the market just through feel.

[Schrodinger]

I would venture to say that if it doesnt bounce today -then I would be seriously worried

Sounds like you found investors holy grail KW

[Cricketfan]

There is a whole thread on the subject http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits
All examples are my real life trades and decisions.

(And by big data I mean I use several of the TA indicators together so that they align and give a single clear picture. I don't act on a single instance of a particular candle, or a particular indicator movement. I always give it time to show confirmation, otherwise it could just be manipulation)

Awesome, thank you.

[Minerbarejet]

You can have all your TA's, FA's, Holy grails, statistical movements, PE ratios, data analysis, trends, candlesticks, alphas, betas, which all relate to what other investors, commercial and retail are doing.
Why dont you just read the story, have a little faith, mortgage the house (kidding), buy some PEB, pour a decent gin, put your feet up for a while and cash in when the gutometer says you should.
You can then use some of the proceeds to
A. Buy some other share and lose it all
B. Buy a boat as part of a sinking fund
C. Write a book about losing money on the stock market
D. Buy some better gin
E. Give it to your wife to spend up large. (Very popular with ladies)

Stand back and look at it and say " What am I actually trying to do here"
Manuel:"Que? Senor Fawlty"

[janner]

I am in violent agreement with you, that's why I said "It does not predict news (unless insider trading is occurring)". In PEBs case, the lack of TA warning that deals were being done is not the problem here, more the lack of market signalling from the company as to its progress. When things come out of the blue then all bets are off. However, in 99% of the time most company news is relatively expected and is priced in by the market. So in that respect, TA can anticipate future news, provided it is expected. Citing PEB as one example of TA being rubbish because it didnt predict one event does not negate the hundreds and thousands of stocks where TA works spectacularly. For every PEB you can find, I can counter with hundreds of other biotech and other stocks where TA would have saved your skin.



You and I have a very different concept of FA - PEB offers no metrics on which to value it, fundamental or otherwise. It has no revenues, no earnings, not even a sales and profit forecast. There is no FA for this stock. It is a speculative stock and as such, any "value" assigned is based purely on guesswork.



If you believe this then I presume you are presently buying up tons of Prana stock? Personally I buy stocks where the price goes up. The only people who make money on falling stock prices are shorters. Stock prices can go to zero - look at Forge. "less risky because the price has fallen?" - you are gambling that the price fall is only temporary and not the result of a more serious problem. If you want to see how much you can lose on a stock that looks good "FA" wise then look at LYC - capital destruction on that scale has not been seen since the dot.com days. Ask yourself, if you were in LYC when would you have gotten out?



I use "value investing". I am a Graham disciple. Before I used TA I managed an average 23%+ p.a (over 10+ years) portfolio return. Now its much higher. My spec portfolio which combines high risk stocks with TA is running at about 300% (over one year) return. Again I said quite clearly "dont use it to pick stocks just because they show some short term TA "pattern". However Value Investing is not the same thing as "buy and hold forever regardless of any change in circumstances". At some point, either the company performance or the market sentiment will change, and you need to know when to get out. Buffets #1 and #2 rule of "dont lose money" overrides everything else.

As I stated, I use FA to pick stocks. If I run a stock screen on my parameters I will get about 100 odd stocks from the ASX. I then apply a TA filter, and about half of them will be eliminated. From there, I look to both FA and TA to find the best performing stocks, or the ones with the most promise. When they take off I run with it and look for top up opportunities. When they decline, I bail and put the money into something else that's on my list. My goal is not to predict market reactions to news (I don't profess to be psychic or arrogant enough to believe that I have an exceptional talent like Buffet or Soros) but simply to not let my capital languish in stocks that are not performing (there are always better investment options) and to never lose money (or at least keep losses to a bare minimum). That I believe is realistic.

On the subject of fund managers, it is not that they don't use TA, its that they can't use TA effectively. It is impossible to buy/sell large volumes of stock quickly (especially without moving the price). TA is a little gift for small investors who have the ability to move in and out of stocks quickly. Once you have a large portfolio and/or large holdings it becomes far more difficult. Its one reason why I stay away from very illiquid companies these days. Arguably the lack of ability to buy/sell quickly based on TA is one of the reasons why fund managers cant outperform the index - they are forced into buying and holding duds simply because they cant offload crap stocks quickly.

A great investor uses every tool at his/her disposal. If you use only FA or only TA, then that saying "when you only have a hammer everything looks like a nail" applies. But if you pick the right tool for the right job, you will find you get much better outcomes. So there should be no "debate" on the merits of FA vs TA, or any supposition that followers of one or the other are stupid - its the combination of both that will see you succeed.


Amen KW..

Very well put.. :-))

[Minerbarejet]

Thats what I like about PEB -you dont have the foggiest idea whats coming next.
Using charts, crystal balls, ouija boards, sortilege, incantations and other assorted mumbo jumbo to determine the future still remains an unproven , and less than scientific, fact.
IMHO

[Whipmoney]

Thats what I like about PEB -you dont have the foggiest idea whats coming next.
Using charts, crystal balls, ouija boards, sortilege, incantations and other assorted mumbo jumbo to determine the future still remains an unproven , and less than scientific, fact.
IMHO

So you like to gamble then!

[Minerbarejet]

So you like to gamble then!
As we do.:)
Doesnt matter what you chuck at it, its still a gamble because there as so many permutations
- bit like the football pools , who won last week doesnt necessarily mean they will win this week. If they do you feel pretty chuffed and you are just the smartest thing since baked beans but lose and the whole world has become a custard square.

[noodles]

You know i was kinda hoping to write a book on how to make a fortune on the stock market, to buy a yacht, and lots of good vodka, so don't count me out yet LOL
KW, I will buy your book. Perhaps you should crowd fund it's publication.

[youngatheart]

Curious KW, I really appreciate your candour. Just looking at NZ stocks what are you currently holding? I only hold DIL, PEB and was with BRL before the story changed and I got out just in time.

[skid]

Thats what I like about PEB -you dont have the foggiest idea whats coming next.
Using charts, crystal balls, ouija boards, sortilege, incantations and other assorted mumbo jumbo to determine the future still remains an unproven , and less than scientific, fact.
IMHO

Agreed Miner--PEB must be one of the more difficult stocks to use FA and TA--But KW appears to be doing well with his system so cant really argue with that.

This last week would have been a good one to be paying a bit more attention to the forest,rather than the trees.

I would venture to say that there are at least some who are now looking at the Nasdaq and biotecs over in the US each morning ,when before it never occurred to them to do anything other than flick over to the PEB thread for some local news.

[couta1]

Hi NewGuy, Its only a bad day if you were wanting to sell - if you are holding because you believe the PEB story, then its no drama. These events are great opportunities to increase your holdings in Pacific Edge. In years gone by I hoovered up during these type events - best buy 250,000 @ 9 cents nobody wanted them! (share price drop from 20cents)
So true Hancock's,and this applies to all these kinda stocks currently,its almost fun watching all the Dummies sell out:cool:

[JimHickey]

As a holder, LOL.

Markets can be so irrational.

[MAC]

Close to 40% off recent highs on no news whilst guidance remains both consistent and positive, we seem to be at what’s probably the best entry point for 2014 for all those who missed out in 2013.

Just six weeks out from FY14 reporting too, it may not be an opportunity that lasts.

[Dentie]

wowwww....look at her go!!

[Nigel]

Bought some more at 1.05 today. 15% drop seems like an over-reaction to me.

[Dentie]

Bought some more at 1.05 today. 15% drop seems like an over-reaction to me.

As soon as it gets to 50c - I'm in for some more...

[fiasco]

So much panic based on the US events, just picked up 20,000 at 1.05 also. Story hasn't changed.

[Minerbarejet]

So what happened then -did everyone go and check that Nasdaq was down and OMG- panic stations.
Presumably when it goes back up panic buying will kick in.

[Dentie]

Given the early volume...the question is ... who is selling???

[PlatnuM195]

Already topped up a couple of days ago, didn't think I'd get this kind of pricing from today though.

[psychic]

Well if you believe in the TA magic, I guess we just filled the Oct 2014 gap.
Righto, onwards and upwards

[Longhaul]

My piggy bank is empty. Wish I could buy more ATM :mellow:

[Minerbarejet]

Given the early volume...the question is ... who is selling???All the people that had stop losses in place after the last drop and rise. My main hope for today is they make a really great announcement about half past three this afternoon. Then watch the action!

[Bobcat.]

End of day price will be more definitive. The biotech rout offshore has clearly impacted PEB's share price - no surprises there. It may take a recovery offshore before we see its price recover.

As good as these prices may seem, relative to earlier this year, I'm still on the sidelines waiting for a higher low, probably next week. There will be a lot of nervousness on the NASDAQ going into this weekend, which could take it lower still. Besides, Mondays are typically a good day to buy, and as old fashioned it might sound, patience is still a virtue.

BC

[barney]

Like Hancocks and a few others, Ive been a holder from early on and watched the company progress through the research phase to commercialisation. Unfortunatley, just as the company starts to make some real progress, this coincides with a worldwide speculative run on technology stocks with the then inevitable pullback.

As the recent article in the Exporter Magazine pointed out its been " a long hard road to success." The point being that PEB is no Johnny come lately. And while the shareprice has undoubtedly been pushed along by recent market hype, the company sticks to its knitting like it has done over the last decade and progresses on. Slowly but surely.

[croesus]

Well if you believe in the TA magic, I guess we just filled the Oct 2014 gap.
Righto, onwards and upwards

Aptly named ... Psychic... Oct 2014.. is 6 months in the future.

But I raised the Gap point several times...

from memory, I didn't get a reply.. all the Hooray Henrys were rabid bulls then.... dreaming of the New Audi s they were going to buy when she hit $10

But in saying that, I still have a core holding... can't not... could be great news any day.

GLTA

[maccas321]

as a newbie, can anyone explain to me why stocks react so, what seems irrationally, to news in a market 10,000 km' away when nothing has changed fundamentally?

Can understand if it was a whole market crash, but an individual sector?

[barney]

as a newbie, can anyone explain to me why stocks react so, what seems irrationally, to news in a market 10,000 km' away when nothing has changed fundamentally?

Can understand if it was a whole market crash, but an individual sector?

Fear and greed basically.

[couta1]

as a newbie, can anyone explain to me why stocks react so, what seems irrationally, to news in a market 10,000 km' away when nothing has changed fundamentally?

Can understand if it was a whole market crash, but an individual sector?
Basically panic and herd mentality sums it up:cool:

[Bobcat.]

it's called fear of losing money.
learn to overcome this human emotion and it will serve you will.

The enemy within is our greatest enemy:
1. Acknowledging our own fear and greed takes us to first base;
2. Understanding their subtleties get us to second;
3. Overcoming them gets us to third;
4. Recognising when the fear and greed of others are at their maximum, and trading accordingly, gets us home with a tidy profit.

[Minerbarejet]

FOMO is setting in

[couta1]

Remember people its only money,what would it mean if those dearest to you be killed tomorrow,hold tight to that which really matters,Faith,Hope,Love:cool:

[geo]

WHY we need crashes.

What's important is realizing that stock crashes aren't a bug. They don't indicate that anything is broken, or that someone screwed up. They are, in fact an absolutely necessity to generating high long-term returns. Without crashes you will never receive returns higher than the other assets that don't crash, like cash in the bank. "Volatility scares enough people out of the market to generate superior returns for those who stay in".

[Bobcat.]

Remember people its only money,what would it mean if those dearest to you be killed tomorrow,hold tight to that which really matters,Faith,Hope,Love:cool:

Yesterday was for learning; tomorrow is the consequence of what we do today.

I must choose wisely, knowing that this day will never return - it may be the last chance I have to contribute what I am able into a worthwhile investment for the good of my family and others. As melodramatic as it might sound, there is no guarantee that I will see tomorrow...

or I could wait until Monday for confirmation of a higher low.

[Intel]

as a newbie, can anyone explain to me why stocks react so, what seems irrationally, to news in a market 10,000 km' away when nothing has changed fundamentally?

Can understand if it was a whole market crash, but an individual sector?

To invoke, what you percieve as irrationality now, you have to ask yourself if it is a rational movement to an irrational event in the past.

Equity markets in general are quite expensive globally, when you look on an earnings basis, and these will be different for individual sectors. Once momentum in a bull market expires and investors start to think rationallly (as in what the **** do i actually own) you will see the highest priced pockets of the market crash the most. Tech and particularly biotech is a market where stock prices are fuelled on a view from within the crystal ball and all though Mac has a valuation of $1.70 he is no better at predicting how PEB's cash flows will turn out than you could be. 1.70 is also interesting as it is roughly equal to PEB's prior highs yet mac did not sell... Anyway beyond the point. What i am trying to say is the pockets of the market which have no direct earnings, then operating earnings, then at last sales will be destroyed in a crash and is all part of the reason why these areas of markets invoke exceptional returns when things go well (as they are incredibly risky) and are also the first to be dispatched.

For me, PEB is a stock which I bought at 20c, 60c, and participated in the placement, yet sold at around 1.50 as I felt the SP was not reflecting the inherent risks which remain in place for commercialistaion of their products. I will buy in again but at a price where I feel the reward outweighhs the risk, whether that be a further decline in price or some time in the future where I can be more confident (through more information) in the true cash flows this firm will gennerate because lets be honest, everyone on here will throw "valuations" around but no one can confidently outline a sales line, cost line, or earnings line.

You have to treat all investment prospects on a risk / reward framework as capital is limited and all investment choices are mutually exclusive. For me I see better opportunities in risk reward terms (not to be mistaken with me hating PEB, because I most definitely do not and will buy in again if i percieve those characteristics to be the best at that point in time) in other parts of the eqiuty market.

Any way, my two cents and hopefully you learn from this, and more importantly, always know what Cashflows you are buying as a Share price should equate to the PV of all expected Cashflows!

[couta1]

Yesterday was for learning; tomorrow is the consequence of what we do today.

I must choose wisely, knowing that this day will never return - it may be the last chance I have to contribute what I am able into a worthwhile investment for the good of my family and others. As melodramatic as it might sound, there is no guarantee that I will see tomorrow...

or I could wait until Monday for confirmation of a higher low.
Its all about perspective Bobcat :cool:

[Whipmoney]

Just out of curiousity I looked at a comparable US biotech company and it took them four full quarters to go from 440 tests to 7000+ tests. At this number of tests their total product revenue in NZD was ~$5.65m (i.e. NZD $807 per test) and their total market cap was ~$329m NZD.

On a raw comparison this would mean that their market cap at the time was roughly 66.6% that of PEB's current market cap, which all things being all (obviously a huge assumption) would equate to an equivalent PEB share-price of $1.03.

Obviously i'm cognisant that this is somewhat of an apples to oranges exercise but these numbers may reasonably suggest that PEB is somewhat over-valued due to a substantial level of forward sales currently being priced in.
23-03-2014 at 09:54 AM.

Still waiting for my price target, may have just missed it!

[Meister]

To invoke, what you percieve as irrationality now, you have to ask yourself if it is a rational movement to an irrational event in the past.

Equity markets in general are quite expensive globally, when you look on an earnings basis, and these will be different for individual sectors. Once momentum in a bull market expires and investors start to think rationallly (as in what the **** do i actually own) you will see the highest priced pockets of the market crash the most. Tech and particularly biotech is a market where stock prices are fuelled on a view from within the crystal ball and all though Mac has a valuation of $1.70 he is no better at predicting how PEB's cash flows will turn out than you could be. 1.70 is also interesting as it is roughly equal to PEB's prior highs yet mac did not sell... Anyway beyond the point. What i am trying to say is the pockets of the market which have no direct earnings, then operating earnings, then at last sales will be destroyed in a crash and is all part of the reason why these areas of markets invoke exceptional returns when things go well (as they are incredibly risky) and are also the first to be dispatched.

For me, PEB is a stock which I bought at 20c, 60c, and participated in the placement, yet sold at around 1.50 as I felt the SP was not reflecting the inherent risks which remain in place for commercialistaion of their products. I will buy in again but at a price where I feel the reward outweighhs the risk, whether that be a further decline in price or some time in the future where I can be more confident (through more information) in the true cash flows this firm will gennerate because lets be honest, everyone on here will throw "valuations" around but no one can confidently outline a sales line, cost line, or earnings line.

You have to treat all investment prospects on a risk / reward framework as capital is limited and all investment choices are mutually exclusive. For me I see better opportunities in risk reward terms (not to be mistaken with me hating PEB, because I most definitely do not and will buy in again if i percieve those characteristics to be the best at that point in time) in other parts of the eqiuty market.

Any way, my two cents and hopefully you learn from this, and more importantly, always know what Cashflows you are buying as a Share price should equate to the PV of all expected Cashflows!


As a newbie as well, I understand this, but do not intuitively understand the strong link with the NASDAQ performance. Yes, PEB is speculative, and hard to value, but up to yesterday everybody has done their best to value it in whatever way they thought was appropriate. Then today, when the story with the company has not changed at all, they re-value this company and sell, solely based on a negative perception of this type of stock, on a market in the US? Why is that a strong link? I assume it is the traders deciding to sell and not the fundies, but it just doesn't seem that strong a link to me. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy - those markets went down so I had better sell here (and drive my market down).
If somebody could elucidate this a bit for me that would be fine and dandy

[maccas321]

Cheers Intel. Appreciate the summation.

Have been holding these for over 2 years so sitting happy nevertheless

[Toasty]

..... It is a self-fulfilling prophecy - those markets went down so I had better sell here (and drive my market down)....

I think you have pretty much summed it up.

[Mista_Trix]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific-edge-shares-slump-five-month-low-growth-stocks-remain-under-pressure-bd-154641

[winner69]

50% long term fibonnacci retracement (.45 to 1.75) at $1.10 is key level, especially since there is a huge gap yawning there. See if she holds eh?

Something magic about those fib numbers

[False Profit]

Very volatile at the moment but in the great scheme of things is not a concern to me. In for the long haul.

Don't get me wrong...seeing the speed of the decline in price had me reaching for the oxygen at one point. I'd dip in for some more but have already made a good move on WYN leaving me with little excess capital to play with. If it falls further then who knows...

Disc. learning learning learning all the time.

[Minerbarejet]

Roll up, roll up, only 30000 left at these prices,
get your PEB now before its too late,
Get rid of these and its 1.28:)
Suppose we are getting a few getting flogged of from this mornings effort.
Well done to successful traders, commiserations to those selling early.
Now, where were we?

[robbo24]

Roll up, roll up, only 30000 left at these prices,
get your PEB now before its too late,
Get rid of these and its 1.28:)

HAMMER TIME is on its way. You read it here first.

[Dentie]

I wonder if those that sold at $1.04 a few hours ago are kicking themselves...

[Dentie]

HAMMER TIME is on its way. You read it here first.

Don't get too excited Robbo - hope you are right but let's see what happens at 5pm.

[couta1]

I wonder if those that sold at $1.04 a few hours ago are kicking themselves...
Yep so much for using stop losses if your long aye

[robbo24]

Fourth time lucky???

There is no luck in TA moosie_900, it's cold hard fact. This is more than a hammer it's a flagpole sledgehammer of destiny.

[robbo24]

dont follow TA so have to ask what a hammer on the charts indicates

Actually this formation is known as the bullish medieval trebuchet, which is the conceptual cousin of the two headed medusa deadlock pattern. Could be an interesting week next week.

[baller18]

Actually this formation is known as the bullish medieval trebuchet, which is the conceptual cousin of the two headed medusa deadlock pattern. Could be an interesting week next week.
You reckon this hammer will actually play out robbo? Or will this be just another one like the other 3.
This one has a lot more volume on it too...

[robbo24]

You reckon this hammer will actually play out robbo? Or will this be just another one like the other 3.
This one has a lot more volume on it too...

Balances 500,000 share crossing went thru.. Plus some other biggies. Who knows. When are those stinkin' Masfens going to stop selling.

[Hoop]

As a newbie as well, I understand this, but do not intuitively understand the strong link with the NASDAQ performance. Yes, PEB is speculative, and hard to value, but up to yesterday everybody has done their best to value it in whatever way they thought was appropriate. Then today, when the story with the company has not changed at all, they re-value this company and sell, solely based on a negative perception of this type of stock, on a market in the US? Why is that a strong link? I assume it is the traders deciding to sell and not the fundies, but it just doesn't seem that strong a link to me. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy - those markets went down so I had better sell here (and drive my market down).
If somebody could elucidate this a bit for me that would be fine and dandy

Hi Meister.
Unfortunately my reply will not come across as fine and dandy...It will upset many...
Meister..Firstly lets clear up this trader notion....Whenever a stock falls the media blames the traders..thats true but the myth becomes apparent when the media labels TA traders as the bad guys causing the problems...Traders are in fact everyone buying and selling stock...we all dictate the price as a single group...if the majority that single group get negative then the price will fall back...
The make up of that single group is always changing...
As you can see on my chart below the experienced TA traders and chartists are long gone out of PEB they left about a month ago.

Unfortunately the traders now are the ones being scared out of PEB I suspect a lot of newbie investors are involved here.
When you get chart supports at round numbers e.g 70 120 160c...when you get blow offs and gaps and wild volatile pricing..this is not the traditional FA nor traditional TA investor driving this stock..The drivers are newbies & other undisciplined investors packed full of emotion looking to make quick easy money.....Unfortunately undisciplinced investors lack entry or exit strategies they lack investment skills they don't have an investment system in place with a set of personal rules and guidelines nor the discipline to enact it..This shows up very clearly on the chart below......

This has to be the most scariest chart I have ever seen.....The price is all over the place...and at the moment it is teetering a cliff edge with no more supports until 70c.......

All I can say is PEB narrowly dodged a bullet today...bottoming out at 1.04 on the weakest and last minor support....... geez...I had visions today of seeing it gap down to 70c

Self fulfilling prophesy....No No No ....PEB is full of emotional investors and at the moment they are very unpredictable and without discipline..
Fundamental excuses that this stock is "cheap" at 110..if thats true why is PEB looking like it should be in a mental institution...At this moment in time I would have to be insane to join in...eh?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB11042014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB11042014.gif.html)

[Slam dunk]

This from some recent Superlife commentary:

"The NZ sharemarket performed strongly last year and over the last 3 and 5 years. This reflects the general positive local economic environment. Over the period also relevant, in the case of SuperLife, was the exposure to Pacific Edge Limited. Shares in Pacific Edge were originally purchased in 2010 at an average purchase price of 26 cents. At 31 March 2014, Pacific Edge’s share price was $1.35. The rise in price has meant that Pacific Edge has become the largest holding in the NZ shares Pool and is well above our target of being equally weighted. In due course, the exposure to Pacific Edge will be sold down. This is likely to be when it gets closer to our original price target, which we still see as being 18 months away. Until then, we are happy to hold the higher exposure, but continue to closely monitor the risk."

Slam dunk commentary on Superlife commentary:

I'm glad to hear that even when they were buying in 2010 at 26 cents that their original price target for PEB was higher than $1.35 (I presume reasonably-to-much higher if they don't see it reaching their target price for 18 months). Also, I'm happy to see they are still happy to hold despite having made 500%. If it's now their largest holding and they're still not ready to rebalance then that says something to me (they're saying 'not yet').

[Bobcat.]

If SuperLife had any semblance of TA skill they would have negotiated at least a partial sell off somewhere above $1.60 after they saw Darling and others selling down.

[Mista_Trix]

I'm not beating down the stock or suggesting its here (more that at 'some point' it is coming).
But what happens to the SP of these types of growth companies during a market turn?

[MAC]

This from some recent Superlife commentary:

"The NZ sharemarket performed strongly last year and over the last 3 and 5 years. This reflects the general positive local economic environment. Over the period also relevant, in the case of SuperLife, was the exposure to Pacific Edge Limited. Shares in Pacific Edge were originally purchased in 2010 at an average purchase price of 26 cents. At 31 March 2014, Pacific Edge’s share price was $1.35. The rise in price has meant that Pacific Edge has become the largest holding in the NZ shares Pool and is well above our target of being equally weighted. In due course, the exposure to Pacific Edge will be sold down. This is likely to be when it gets closer to our original price target, which we still see as being 18 months away. Until then, we are happy to hold the higher exposure, but continue to closely monitor the risk."

Agree with that as a fair approach and am doing the same, holding during what is a growth phase with potentially a few years yet to run.

Since 2010 Pacific Edge have also advanced the pipeline products, in particular Cxcolorectal which may well provide a further momentum kick over the next 12 to 24 months. IMO it’s not yet possible to perform a meaningful valuation of the pipeline products without further information from management, but still I would not be one bit surprised to see PEB as a $5 stock in 2016.

We may well see more analyst coverage going forward now PEB is NZ50 listed, mainstream analysts seem to wait until they are confident enough to stick their neck out, perhaps after FY14 reporting. This may help take some of the volatility out too.

[Nigel]

Just thinking... With the big fall from recent levels, how low would it need to go before it drops out of the NZX50?

[Casino]

Hi Meister.
Unfortunately my reply will not come across as fine and dandy...It will upset many...
Meister..Firstly lets clear up this trader notion....Whenever a stock falls the media blames the traders..thats true but the myth becomes apparent when the media labels TA traders as the bad guys causing the problems...Traders are in fact everyone buying and selling stock...we all dictate the price as a single group...if the majority that single group get negative then the price will fall back...
The make up of that single group is always changing...
As you can see on my chart below the experienced TA traders and chartists are long gone out of PEB they left about a month ago.

Unfortunately the traders now are the ones being scared out of PEB I suspect a lot of newbie investors are involved here.
When you get chart supports at round numbers e.g 70 120 160c...when you get blow offs and gaps and wild volatile pricing..this is not the traditional FA nor traditional TA investor driving this stock..The drivers are newbies & other undisciplined investors packed full of emotion looking to make quick easy money.....Unfortunately undisciplinced investors lack entry or exit strategies they lack investment skills they don't have an investment system in place with a set of personal rules and guidelines nor the discipline to enact it..This shows up very clearly on the chart below......

This has to be the most scariest chart I have ever seen.....The price is all over the place...and at the moment it is teetering a cliff edge with no more supports until 70c.......

All I can say is PEB narrowly dodged a bullet today...bottoming out at 1.04 on the weakest and last minor support....... geez...I had visions today of seeing it gap down to 70c

Self fulfilling prophesy....No No No ....PEB is full of emotional investors and at the moment they are very unpredictable and without discipline..
Fundamental excuses that this stock is "cheap" at 110..if thats true why is PEB looking like it should be in a mental institution...At this moment in time I would have to be insane to join in...eh?



Are your support levels adjusted for the dilution that took place?

[Meister]

As you can see on my chart below the experienced TA traders and chartists are long gone out of PEB they left about a month ago.
...
Fundamental excuses that this stock is "cheap" at 110..if thats true why is PEB looking like it should be in a mental institution...At this moment in time I would have to be insane to join in...eh?



Hi Hoop thanks for replying. You didn't really comment on why people see such a strong link between overseas market behaviour and the price of this stock, I guess I will assume you do not base much on what overseas markets are doing? You are implying only the inexperienced people left are getting spooked by overseas market behaviour. Or perhaps you think everybody should be out, and that it is only the inexperienced people still in there left to sell.

I can't imagine what the guys selling at 104 are really thinking, but it seems unlikely they subscribe to FA. I think the company does look cheap at that price. It seems to me that value investors shouldn't be selling due to overnight market trends overseas.

As for being insane to join in now - you are the guy who just told me the market is being driven by some inexperienced people. That pretty much explains why it looks like it should be in a mental institute. Traditional FA guys say its cheap. Inexperienced newbies are panic selling. Who is more likely to be correct? haha :P
I think PEB is still risky and speculative but at this price there is a lot of potential upside and the long term risk is lessened. Short term you might be right, long term, lets wait and see! :)

[robbo24]

Are your support levels adjusted for the dilution that took place?

The old 1.20 is the new 1.04.

1.04*15% is 1.20.

Hoop will be back in a few weeks to explain why you got it wrong.

[skid]

Hi Meister.
Unfortunately my reply will not come across as fine and dandy...It will upset many...
Meister..Firstly lets clear up this trader notion....Whenever a stock falls the media blames the traders..thats true but the myth becomes apparent when the media labels TA traders as the bad guys causing the problems...Traders are in fact everyone buying and selling stock...we all dictate the price as a single group...if the majority that single group get negative then the price will fall back...
The make up of that single group is always changing...
As you can see on my chart below the experienced TA traders and chartists are long gone out of PEB they left about a month ago.

Unfortunately the traders now are the ones being scared out of PEB I suspect a lot of newbie investors are involved here.
When you get chart supports at round numbers e.g 70 120 160c...when you get blow offs and gaps and wild volatile pricing..this is not the traditional FA nor traditional TA investor driving this stock..The drivers are newbies & other undisciplined investors packed full of emotion looking to make quick easy money.....Unfortunately undisciplinced investors lack entry or exit strategies they lack investment skills they don't have an investment system in place with a set of personal rules and guidelines nor the discipline to enact it..This shows up very clearly on the chart below......

This has to be the most scariest chart I have ever seen.....The price is all over the place...and at the moment it is teetering a cliff edge with no more supports until 70c.......

All I can say is PEB narrowly dodged a bullet today...bottoming out at 1.04 on the weakest and last minor support....... geez...I had visions today of seeing it gap down to 70c

Self fulfilling prophesy....No No No ....PEB is full of emotional investors and at the moment they are very unpredictable and without discipline..
Fundamental excuses that this stock is "cheap" at 110..if thats true why is PEB looking like it should be in a mental institution...At this moment in time I would have to be insane to join in...eh?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB11042014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB11042014.gif.html)

After going back and skimming the DIL thread,with its catastrophic fall,I would take what Hoop has to say very seriously.
Those that ignored his input paid the price
''he who fights and runs away-lives to fight another day''

[couta1]

Hi Hoop thanks for replying. YoI've idn't really comment on why people see such a strong link between overseas market behaviour and the price of this stock, I guess I will assume you do not base much on what overseas markets are doing? You are implying only the inexperienced people left are getting spooked by overseas market behaviour. Or perhaps you think everybody should be out, and that it is only the inexperienced people still in there left to sell.

I can't imagine what the guys selling at 104 are really thinking, but it seems unlikely they subscribe to FA. I think the company does look cheap at that price. It seems to me that value investors shouldn't be selling due to overnight market trends overseas.

As for being insane to join in now - you are the guy who just told me the market is being driven by some inexperienced people. That pretty much explains why it looks like it should be in a mental institute. Traditional FA guys say its cheap. Inexperienced newbies are panic selling. Who is more likely to be correct? haha :P
I think PEB is still risky and speculative but at this price there is a lot of potential upside and the long term risk is lessened. Short term you might be right, long term, lets wait and see! :)
If you believe in the stock and the story go long,as ive said somewhere else theres no evidence that people jumping in and out of stocks and using stop losses are any better of than those that ride out the storms and thats a fact,no one on here can prove otherwise,if a company has changed fundamentally then thats different story ie Chorus

[skid]

25% fall in the last month--ouch!

[Longhaul]

After going back and skimming the DIL thread,with its catastrophic fall,I would take what Hoop has to say very seriously.

Fair point but how is Diligent's problems with the restatement and the ensuing lack of confidence in management and slowing growth related to PEB's situation?

The quandary for me is that PEB might come out tomorrow saying it's signed a major contract. Do you sell now and try and buy back in before it gaps up, or do you put them in the bottom drawer and not look at them for 3 years?

TA's well they will be doing their thing in the meantime.

[Whipmoney]

I can't imagine what the guys selling at 104 are really thinking, but it seems unlikely they subscribe to FA. I think the company does look cheap at that price. It seems to me that value investors shouldn't be selling due to overnight market trends overseas.

As for being insane to join in now - you are the guy who just told me the market is being driven by some inexperienced people. That pretty much explains why it looks like it should be in a mental institute. Traditional FA guys say its cheap. Inexperienced newbies are panic selling. Who is more likely to be correct? haha :P
I think PEB is still risky and speculative but at this price there is a lot of potential upside and the long term risk is lessened. Short term you might be right, long term, lets wait and see! :)

Which Traditional FA guys? The stock is insanely expensive relative to its Sales trajectory and the historical pricing of comparable biotech firms (in their comparable state).

Curious to know what exactly justifies a price above say $1.20?

[Longhaul]

Hmmm if sales are non-existent, then how do we value the underlying IP? (assuming that another company might be able to bring to market successfully?)

[skid]

[QUOTE=Longhaul;473726]Fair point but how is Diligent's problems with the restatement and the ensuing lack of confidence in management and slowing growth related to PEB's situation?

The quandary for me is that PEB might come out tomorrow saying it's signed a major contract. Do you sell now and try and buy back in before it gaps up, or do you put them in the bottom drawer and not look at them for 3 years?

88888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888 88888888888888

It doesnt have to relate to PEBs situation in terms of details--Its about the psychology of investing and knowing when to bail when a downtrend is confirmed to cut losses.

I agree,PEB is one of the harder shares to gauge using charts,and you never know when an announcement will come(that might actually translate into sales) but 25% is alot of gaping up.
Being in for the long haul is fine and alot have had success at that approach.
But watching the share price several times a day is rather useless if thats the case.

It bounced pretty well this morning ,but it was a close call.
Guess you have to weigh the markets sentiment ATM against the possibility of a major announcement and think about the odds.
There is always the possibility that the major announcement may be disappointing sales figures

I can understand your quandry

[Whipmoney]

Hmmm if sales are non-existent, then how do we value the underlying IP? (assuming that another company might be able to bring to market successfully?)

The IP is relatively worthless to PEB if they can't gain sales traction and generate cash-flow to fund their forward momentum. Even if does have value to another big player, the IP alone certainly is worth anything near the $366m market cap.

[Copper]

Which Traditional FA guys? The stock is insanely expensive relative to its Sales trajectory and the historical pricing of comparable biotech firms (in their comparable state).

Curious to know what exactly justifies a price above say $1.20?
As I have said before ,I am no chartist but try to gather info from the very knowledgeable chartist guys on this and other threads.I have watched charts in the penny dreadful miners in Aussy and It all has a familiar tone to it.Looking at a chart of this thing which use yesterday's prices all I can say is ,in my assessment if you were to have a negative announcement sometime in a bad market then 60 cents would be the ultimate result.I am just an average Jo punter ( of which there are many) who is using gut feeling and trying to relate that to a little knowledge of charting.If you throw that into the mix on this thread you get a feel for the sellers at $1.04.It wasn't me ,I luckily sold further up.You may think I am a nutter or otherwise but the posts at $1.70 didn't envisage $1.04.Thats my tuppence worth.

[skid]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-edge-lower-amid-china-data-earnings-2014-04-10?link=MW_latest_news

Dont ask me how reliable this guy Uri is(of hedge fund Platnum partners), but its some scarey reading.(Wall street journal web page)

[Goldstein]

If you believe in the stock and the story go long,as ive said somewhere else theres no evidence that people jumping in and out of stocks and using stop losses are any better of than those that ride out the storms and thats a fact,no one on here can prove otherwise,if a company has changed fundamentally then thats different story ie Chorus

Hi Couta1. Even if you are long on a stock the company in question may not change at all, but the environment in which the company does business changes, competitors emerge bringing cheaper/better product to market or users change preference. Microsoft springs to mind.

My point is stop-losses are necessary. You may have made the correct decision to invest in a company with the information available, but a stop-loss will prevent something unanticipated from biting you.

Going long should not mean you ignore stop losses. Fletcher Forests taught me an expensive lesson about 15 years ago in this regard. I've done OK since mostly due to the humble stop-loss.

[Whipmoney]

You may think I am a nutter or otherwise but the posts at $1.70 didn't envisage $1.04.Thats my tuppence worth.

Well I mentioned around $1.03 on the 23/3/14 when the price was $1.55+.

[Casino]

The old 1.20 is the new 1.04.

1.04*15% is 1.20.

Hoop will be back in a few weeks to explain why you got it wrong.


I was just asking... Look I'm the first to say that PEB reacted irrationally to signing of PPOs, SPP dilution and shooting up to $1.70 pricing in 100m of revenue. Yet I think that PEB is one of the better biotech plays. I'm convinced that we won't see as many cancer drugs in 5 years as we have biotech companies with high multiples today. Will PEB achieve 100m of revenue with a great diagnostic tool by then? I am confident that they will and see potential for even higher market share. With a bit of luck, the additional products will be well received too. I think the best way to value PEB is to apply a 6x sales multiple. This gives us a rough target price of 600m for 2018 if they can deliver. Personally, I would top up at 70c.

[Copper]

Well I mentioned around $1.03 on the 23/3/14 when the price was $1.55+.
Good on you.I couldn't find your post in the mix but recalled one that upset a few feathers.Cheers.

[winner69]

25% fall in the last month--ouch!


Just 'noise' mate

That's what some are saying

[Remote]

be interesting to see the share price move if the tens of thousands of sales come through this year!

[couta1]

KW each to their own but has XRO,SLI and Wyn's stories also changed because they all all down similar amounts? Okay not stories but whatever is causing the downturn has it altered the companies so we should all bail even if you have a 5 year viewpoint?

[winner69]

KW each to their own but has XRO,SLI and Wyn's stories also changed because they all all down similar amounts?

NO ......their stories are the same as a month ago

KW was saying stories don't change .....it's only market sentiment that changes

And the downturn is not all due to traders either (had to get that in)

[MAC]

Casino, I don’t know why but I feel compelled to give you a hand,

Pacific edge’s goal of achieving $100M (10% market share) in revenues by HY18 is far from priced in. As we get closer to those revenue levels the net present value of the associated discounted cashflow's becomes higher, therefore the valuation of the stock also increases as we get closer. Every day that goes by is another day that the value of Pacific edge increases.

The market of poor bladder cancer unfortunates is also expanding, the market expanded by 5% over the last five years and we may, perhaps, anticipate another 5% to HY18. With the barriers to entry being very high with this sort of product (years of trials and compliance) and with Pacific Edge strategically stratifying the market with four separate Cxbladder products, we may be forgiven for anticipating that they may become the sector leader and dominate in this area.

If Cxbladder becomes adopted as a gold standard adjunct in the US, some including myself may anticipate that a 10% market share goal would appear to be a really quite conservative figure. This and the IP value of the product pipeline allows for simply an enormous level of upside potential that is also not priced in.

Some time ago I received advice from Pacific Edge suggesting that more meaningful routine sales reporting may be provided from later this year. I think this plus more analyst coverage should settle the market down and take the volatility out. Until then opportunities like that of today are an absolute gift and I don’t think we will see many more if any now.

[skid]

Casino, I don’t know why but I feel compelled to give you a hand,

Pacific edge’s goal of achieving $100M (10% market share) in revenues by HY18 is far from priced in. As we get closer to those revenue levels the net present value of the associated discounted cashflow's becomes higher, therefore the valuation of the stock also increases as we get closer. Every day that goes by is another day that the value of Pacific edge increases.

The market of poor bladder cancer unfortunates is also expanding, the market expanded by 5% over the last five years and we may, perhaps, anticipate another 5% to HY18. With the barriers to entry being very high with this sort of product (years of trials and compliance) and with Pacific Edge strategically stratifying the market with four separate Cxbladder products, we may be forgiven for anticipating that they may become the sector leader and dominate in this area.

If Cxbladder becomes adopted as a gold standard adjunct in the US, some including myself may anticipate that a 10% market share goal would appear to be a really quite conservative figure. This and the IP value of the product pipeline allows for simply an enormous level of upside potential that is also not priced in.

Some time ago I received advice from Pacific Edge suggesting that more meaningful routine sales reporting may be provided from later this year. I think this plus more analyst coverage should settle the market down and take the volatility out. Until then opportunities like that of today are an absolute gift and I don’t think we will see many more if any now.

And this would be a perfectly reasonable post a few months ago when we were in a rising market.
But its a different market now(ATM) and although this information is great(if it comes to pass) its only part of the equation.
You think routine sales reporting by PEB is going to settle the market down and take the volatility out?
Are you second guessing the Nasdaq when you say opportunities like today are an absolute gift?
Because if the Nasdaq tanks again tonight,thats what will determine the SP come Monday.

You have made a good argument for the company--but not the market-and thats where the game is being played ATM

[Casino]

Casino, I don’t know why but I feel compelled to give you a hand,

Pacific edge’s goal of achieving $100M (10% market share) in revenues by HY18 is far from priced in. As we get closer to those revenue levels the net present value of the associated discounted cashflow's becomes higher, therefore the valuation of the stock also increases as we get closer. Every day that goes by is another day that the value of Pacific edge increases.

The market of poor bladder cancer unfortunates is also expanding, the market expanded by 5% over the last five years and we may, perhaps, anticipate another 5% to HY18. With the barriers to entry being very high with this sort of product (years of trials and compliance) and with Pacific Edge strategically stratifying the market with four separate Cxbladder products, we may be forgiven for anticipating that they may become the sector leader and dominate in this area.

If Cxbladder becomes adopted as a gold standard adjunct in the US, some including myself may anticipate that a 10% market share goal would appear to be a really quite conservative figure. This and the IP value of the product pipeline allows for simply an enormous level of upside potential that is also not priced in.

Some time ago I received advice from Pacific Edge suggesting that more meaningful routine sales reporting may be provided from later this year. I think this plus more analyst coverage should settle the market down and take the volatility out. Until then opportunities like that of today are an absolute gift and I don’t think we will see many more if any now.

PEB's huge potential is not lost on me. I would like to think that I recognised it long before the market did. But every momentum stock has huge potential and that's not unique to PEB. However only very few of them will become viable billion dollar businesses. Like you, I am very comfortable with the product and management. Like you, I believe that the management tends to under-promise and over-deliver. The management has promised us revenues of 100m by 2018 and the fair value for that is a market cap of 600m. Everything above that is a bonus. Why should the market price that in?

[Intel]

Heres an interesting question which should stir some debate.

100m of revenue at 10% market share equates to a market of $1bn for BC diagnostics (simplistic assumption)

The total bladder cancer care spend in the US was estimated to be $3.96bn in 2010. http://progressreport.cancer.gov/doc_detail.asp?pid=1&did=2007&chid=75&coid=726&

Do you think that diagnostic revenue which will equate to 20% (1bn / (1bn + 3.96bn)) of total spend for bladder cancer is a reasonable cost to a public health system?

If you were medicare, would you be happy with this amount of profit for a company at a proposed 70% EBIT margin (especially as only 30m has been invested in R&D)

Looking forward to hearing everyones opinions, Im sure they will be divided

[blackcap]

Heres an interesting question which should stir some debate.

100m of revenue at 10% market share equates to a market of $1bn for BC diagnostics (simplistic assumption)

The total bladder cancer care spend in the US was estimated to be $3.96bn in 2010. http://progressreport.cancer.gov/doc_detail.asp?pid=1&did=2007&chid=75&coid=726&

Do you think that diagnostic revenue which will equate to 20% (1bn / (1bn + 3.96bn)) of total spend for bladder cancer is a reasonable cost to a public health system?

If you were medicare, would you be happy with this amount of profit for a company at a proposed 70% EBIT margin (especially as only 30m has been invested in R&D)

Looking forward to hearing everyones opinions, Im sure they will be divided

Interesting. There was just such a piece on CNBC today that regulators are "limiting" super profits of bio firms for this very reason....

[Xerof]

Have you read the Bloomberg article about the opthamologist who billed Medicare for 21mill in 2012?

not sure a profit of 250 or so per test can be lined up against that

[Xerof]

Woah, go that man!

lol, he is.....to court anyway, to appeal fraud conviction for overbilling 8mill in 2009

[Bobcat.]

...look for ways to profit from a falling market, like shorting and contrarian ETFs.

My BEAR.asx are up today - better than holding cash in the bank.

Am still on the sidelines with PEB, although intraday higher low looks promising. Will reconsider early next week.

[Intel]

New Guy, Yeah you have completely missed the entire point of what i posted. Of course the numbers are not correct due to TVM and inflation. But thanks for your input. It was insightful

[winner69]

My BEAR.asx are up today - better than holding cash in the bank.

Am still on the sidelines with PEB, although intraday higher low looks promising. Will reconsider early next week.

That BEAR a funny beast .... been hanging around the 1800 mark for months .... but then again the ASX has been hanging around the present mark for a while as well

[MAC]

It’s both a market of stocks and a stock market. Aside from providing great buying opportunities, short term swings of IT stocks, up or down, really matters little, companies with good fundamentals will always outperform.

The Pacific Edge guidance is more positive than I suspect most short termers selling today recognise if they even know what the guidance is or where to find it, sales staff are increasing and management are suggesting that sales could be well ahead of the curve this calendar year, and it's reporting time soon.

It’s a gift even if you were to try and wrap it up in short term sentiment.

[Whipmoney]

Brighton Early said so a few months ago but couldn't disclose the source

As it turned out seemed to be about the average of Nasdaq bios so it became the Sharetrader benchmark for all things beautiful that needed justifying

Just a quick rule of thumb for lazy analysts I reckon

Lol i'm pretty sure I said that the average Biotech Price/Sales Ratio was 6 times to BE..

I see the price to sales ratio rose to 10.72 by Jan 2014.

[skid]

It’s both a market of stocks and a stock market. Aside from providing great buying opportunities, short term swings of IT stocks, up or down, really matters little, companies with good fundamentals will always outperform.

The Pacific Edge guidance is more positive than I suspect most short termers selling today recognise if they even know what the guidance is or where to find it, sales staff are increasing and management are suggesting that sales could be well ahead of the curve this calendar year, and it's reporting time soon.

It’s a gift even if you were to try and wrap it up in short term sentiment.

And it may be even more of a gift on Monday.:)

[Casino]

casino, how did you settle on a multiple of 6 x revenue? What are you assuming about the relationship between revenues and profits?

It's an historic industry average. At the moment, we sit well above that:

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html

and it's often meaningless because many biotechs have no sales:

http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/22256/macro-picture-biotech-sector#.U0eFqq2Sxt0


But margins aren't an issue in biotech. The problem lies with the products.

[warthog]

I'm so tired of hearing "the story hasnt changed" as justification for sitting tight. This is such crap. The story never changed for 90% of the stocks listed during any particular market down turn. If you think that ignoring market sentiment because you believe it irrelevant to a company's share price performance, then you are dreaming.

Look at ENV. Its a gas company. A boring old utility. Did people stop using gas in their homes during the GFC? Of course not. Did ENV stop connecting new homes and putting the prices up by the govt mandated amount every year? Of course not. Did the company's operating costs, customer base, market, competitors or anything else change in 2007? No, it did not. Did the share price lose 75% of its value and take 7 years to recover due to "market trends" YES IT DID! Bury your head in the sand and ignore the market sentiment at your own risk.

5695

Matter of interest - what are the two MAs you have in the chart kW?

[winner69]

Casino, I don’t know why but I feel compelled to give you a hand,

Pacific edge’s goal of achieving $100M (10% market share) in revenues by HY18 is far from priced in. As we get closer to those revenue levels the net present value of the associated discounted cashflow's becomes higher, therefore the valuation of the stock also increases as we get closer. Every day that goes by is another day that the value of Pacific edge increases.
.

isn't the future 'higher valuation / share price ' just a reflection of the returns you have assumed (the discount rate and the terminal growth rate) from the valuation of today?

You just seem to make it sound like some magical increase in value as time goes by when it really isn't (to my way of thinking)

[MAC]

Lets wait and see huh, before we start gobbing off?

5707



Yep, some would think from today that the sky had fallen and chicken little is now a pancake, yet the good folk at Pacific Edge are I’m sure continuing to do what they do and cancer patients still want the best in understanding their cancerousness.

Business as usual and now a business at a bargain.

[Dentie]

all set up for the impossible to happen monday.
PEB closed off not too far off the lows of the day and could not hold the bounce.
Another poor showing on the nasdaq tommoro and me thinks $1 will be tested monday:(
let the shareprice trend since the multiple insiders sell down be of warning to newbie investors.
When multiple insiders sell at the same time it is time to fall out of love with your investment and run for your life.

So, has your life been saved Snapiti? Or, to be more direct .... given you are not a newbie ..... do you still hold PEB shares?

[warthog]

Lets wait and see huh, before we start gobbing off?

5704

Precisely this, but the opposite, has been prevalent of late.

i.e.
Question "Where's the value in PEB and how is it not like a Ponzi Scheme?"

Answer "Stone the non-believer!!"

(chorus of Brighton_Early and other groupies) "STONE THE NON-BELIEVER!!"

[Dentie]

this thread would be 30 pages longer if handcocks did not delete his post.

He who has the last laugh ..... and I don't have any stones....

I would hazard a guess that Hancocks (& probably MAC) have done more REAL DYOR than the rest of us put together. My understanding of the company's products has certainly been enhanced due to what they have been happy to share with the rest of us.

I notice as the SP has waned Snapiti, your comments have gone from being nervous based to just about outright terrifyingly alarmist. So, although you seem to suggest otherwise for others to take note, I would think you yourself are still holding PEB (its just you didn't answer my last request). Like the real believers, I bet you are too frightened to sell Snapiti ....jjjuuuuuussst in case you might miss out. Reporting time is looming...announcements are looming....you don't want to miss the boat eh. But, if the announcements are not what we want to hear the SP will goooooo dooooown like a stone and then we'll look back and say ....IF ONLY ....

Who cares eh ... its only money .....can't buy happiness.....just enjoy the ride in the meantime.

Was typing this when Snapiti put his last one

[warthog]

[PEB] Risk versus reward looks fairly priced between $1.10 -$1.25.

There is this thing called sector rotation.

[warthog]

Like the real believers, I bet you are too frightened to sell Snapiti

Did you read the post? S/he said that they had sold a large portion at a 300+% profit.

Doesn't sound like Snapiti missed out.

Lots of talk here about investing/trading as if it is like buying lottery tickets.

[Twinklefingers]

The Pacific Edge guidance is more positive than I suspect most short termers selling today recognise if they even know what the guidance is or where to find it, sales staff are increasing and management are suggesting that sales could be well ahead of the curve this calendar year, and it's reporting time soon.


Ok I'll bite, what guidance are you referring to? I haven't seen anything to suggest they could be ahead of the curve. In fact they've been very quiet either way from what I can see.

[Bobcat.]

Biotechs are down another 2.8% overnight on the NASDAQ.

Monday around 10:15am or late afternoon could well be the time to buy PEB - sub $1.00 ?

[skid]

Yep, some would think from today that the sky had fallen and chicken little is now a pancake, yet the good folk at Pacific Edge are I’m sure continuing to do what they do and cancer patients still want the best in understanding their cancerousness.

Business as usual and now a business at a bargain.

Its a nervous time but I dont see any reason to start slagging the company.
All the action has been on the outside markets and unfortunately its starting to look serious now as it is starting to spread to other markets aside from the Nasdaq.
For the moment the company itself is taking the back seat.
I would venture to say that even an announcement would not have the legs it used to-the bear is just to strong ATM.
I think in all honesty the odds of losing from the market are greater than missing out on an announcement driven rise.

It may be business as usual in terms of the running of the company-but its not business as usual for the share price.
It may now be a business at a bargain,but it will be an even greater bargain come Monday--Its more or less the law of psychological physics at this stage.

This could be the time to look seriously at all shares and perhaps do some defensive culling.

[Balance]

wise words about the general markets skid.
But lets put this general market sell off in prespective, it is happening on rotation(nothing wrong with that) and a small amount of fear(this happens all the time) but dont forget that it is tax payment time in the US and the commentary I have heard is some money is coming out of play to accommodate tax liabilities.
As for PEB I thought it was time to do some defensive culling on the stock when multiple insiders started selling at the same time.
PEB has been on a down trend prior to the broader markets selling off (pretty much since multiple insiders started selling).
No offence intended but this was a pretty clear sell/culling signal.

You are right there, Snapiti.

Looking at the latest share register, there is selling across the shareholders spectrum.

[skid]

Fair enough-the minor selling started before the major selling.
But personally I can see no logical reason to buy in before the bleeding stops.
This is not a small amount of fear from where Im sitting--PEB unfortunately has lost 30% of its value in the last month.
Its starting to look like carnage in the States-I dont think this is just ''normal noise''
This doesnt happen all the time-Thursday was the biggest fall on the Nasdaq since 2011-(followed by another 1.38% drop on Friday)
I personally would be keeping my powder dry until the dust settles and then reevaluate

[Dentie]

Well obviously I am not like you DENTIE, as I see PEB for what it is and like I said I sold a large portion of the investment I bought at 0.51cps for $1.65.
I have made many post disclosing this over the last couple of months that is why I did not reply to your post.
I will leave emotional investing to others.
Happy to have bought back the share's I sold $1.65 @ $1.07 yesterday.
Take what ever you like out of my post but one thing is sure my investment results in PEB shows that I understand the stock better than most.

Rather than "investment results" ... sounds like "trading results" to me, especially as you bought back in at $1.07. I think it has more falling to go yet, but I can see you don't want to be on the outer for too long. But congrats on your profit Snapiti. If you understand the stock better than most - why did you wait until it got to 51c before you got in? Most "investors" in this stock have been in long before it got to 51c and are still in.

I try to refrain from making personal attacks (or tall poppying) but get sick of listening to tirades from people who are very wise after the event has taken place....saying I told you so and I tried to warn you etc. Saw this on the SNK thread and hope it doesn't start here now ....

[robbo24]

I dont disagree with you.
I feel fortunate my average buy in of PEB is so low.

This discussion is going stale. The relevance of your buy price is thin. Go write your average buy price on a toilet wall instead :D

In more relevant news... http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2014/04/01/new-urine-test-accurately-predicts-recurrence-of-bladder-cancer/

This comment at the end seems at odds with PEB test results: “There have been several other urine markers used for bladder cancer, but none of these have gained traction because of poor sensitivity,” Krishnan said.

[robbo24]

So is this a new competitor for cxbladder?

Not really.. This is a preliminary university study. It takes a long time, money and regulatory hurdles to commercialize and compete with PEB.

That quote about accuracy seems at odds with the published studies about CXBladder in recent times.

[blackcap]

Yeah, I'm not a fan of pulling stop losses. .

You hit the nail on the head there turmeric. If you set a stop loss you have to keep it in place. NO MATTER WHAT. You set it for a reason. Like you said, many people here will have exacerbated their losses for pulling their stops as the shareprice threatens to hit it. Psychology 101.

[Minerbarejet]

This discussion is going stale. The relevance of your buy price is thin. Go write your average buy price on a toilet wall instead :D

In more relevant news... http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2014/04/01/new-urine-test-accurately-predicts-recurrence-of-bladder-cancer/

This comment at the end seems at odds with PEB test results: “There have been several other urine markers used for bladder cancer, but none of these have gained traction because of poor sensitivity,” Krishnan said.Hes not exactly going to say "there is one out there that works really well" is he. Goodbye funding for research, goodbye job, goodbye lifestyle. Better to not say too much when you are still in the starting blocks and your competitors are way down the track. Depends if you are a hare or not I suppose. But thats neither hare nor there.

[Whipmoney]

Maybe he should delete all his posts if he feels his contributions not worth keeping

Wouldn't make much difference to the thread if search results are anything to go by

Speak for yourself... Most of us actually value Hancocks contributions.

[Balance]

In more relevant news... http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2014/04/01/new-urine-test-accurately-predicts-recurrence-of-bladder-cancer/

This comment at the end seems at odds with PEB test results: “There have been several other urine markers used for bladder cancer, but none of these have gained traction because of poor sensitivity,” Krishnan said.

A great opportunity for PEB to show them CxBladder, I would have thought?

[MAC]

Lots of good trading advice on the thread this week, here’s a summary;

First draw some lines on a chart like the one below and talk about stoploss a lot, this way the newbie’s will think that you’ve been to New York and that you’re a real trader.

5708

The rules go like this, roll the dice, if you land on a ladder you must pay the tax man at the top, if you don't follow this rule you go to real jail, then you must trash the company and its management, this is totally futile and everyone will just think you are a prick, but it seems to be a mandatory rule. If you land on a snake, tell absolutely nobody, no one, especially the wife, she might take your dice away.

Or, you could just do some research, buy low, pour yourself a nice coffee, sit back, relax and watch the Muppets play the traders game.

slurp, ahhhhh, cheers,
Mac

[Balance]

Speak for yourself... Most of us actually value Hancocks contributions.

Agree with you 100% and many other PEB holders will too.

It is the prerogative of any poster to write or delete as they go along - as long as they are not doing a pump and dump.

Hancocks has been a fountain of knowledge and information, and been happy to share.

[Microsloth]

Have been wondering, If A urologist makes more money performing a cystoscopy in their practice , than using a urine test like PEB's

I know what a patient would prefer, piss in this or jam this up your.. but financial self interest of the Urologist... wouldn't underestimate that in US medical market

Disclosure still hold , but did sell down to protect initial capital invested when Directors sold.

[Minerbarejet]

Maybe he should delete all his posts if he feels his contributions not worth keeping

Wouldn't make much difference to the thread if search results are anything to go bycould I perhaps warn that if Mr Hancocks were to pull all his posts then this entire thread could disappear - all 7.2 k of contributions. We trust this will not be the case because of some ill considered remark.

[Balance]

could I perhaps warn that if Mr Hancocks were to pull all his posts then this entire thread could disappear - all 7.2 k of contributions. We trust this will not be the case because of some ill considered remark.

There had been the occasions when some posters have attacked the integrity of Hancocks - sadly, it seems to be the traders who always seem to do so.

[Joshuatree]

Great mornings read thanks to all differing thoughts.To me its the Macro, acting liking black hole on anything with risk luck to all and I finally found a use for my floating anchors , wrap one around anything perceived as "solid"; Cash in the bank or defensive yield plays.

[Goldstein]

This discussion is going stale. The relevance of your buy price is thin. Go write your average buy price on a toilet wall instead :D

In more relevant news... http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2014/04/01/new-urine-test-accurately-predicts-recurrence-of-bladder-cancer/

This comment at the end seems at odds with PEB test results: “There have been several other urine markers used for bladder cancer, but none of these have gained traction because of poor sensitivity,” Krishnan said.

This test is about cancer recurrrence. The population they are concerned with have already had cancer identified. CX-bladder is loooking for cancer in the general population.

[skid]

plenty of relivance in average buy in on any stock and I cant write it on my toilet wall as my Mrs would bash me,
Happy to come to your place and write it on your toilet wall robbo24

Problem is you have been writing it in the toilet bowl and each time you flush it gets washed away:):)

[skid]

Here are 2 opposing views on outside markets

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/citi-wile-e-coyote-moment-2014-4

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/money-markets

[nextbigthing]

PEB strikes me as being all or nothing. They either get all the approvals in the states and it becomes huge, or, they don't get approval and they fade away.

KW (who is a she, not a he for those of you who haven't had the pleasure of meeting her yet) I read you hate the statement 'nothing has changed' - as market sentiment has changed. True and this will lead to a lower shareprice and a potential loss for traders. However even if the brown stuff really hits the fan globally, at the end of the day sadly cancer rates will not follow the market lower. And put yourself in the shoes of a cancer sufferer, if I was hurting financially due to a global downturn but had bladder issues, I'd downgrade my car or whatever I had to do to make sure I got this test at almost whatever price. I think the majority of people would think like that and therefore if PEB can get decent awareness, a downturn shouldn't matter too much as profits will still be there. Yes you might be able to buy it cheaper if sentiment continues down, however for holders, not traders, nothing has changed.

What is interesting is given the all or nothing scenario I see happening, how does the current price relate to this?

Option 1) DD and his mates have an idea that approval is not on track and sold out a decent portion while they had the chance. People in the know have an idea or this too and are quietly exiting. The 'nothing' scenario is panning out and anyone holding is f#%k#%

Option 2) The 'all' scenario. DD and his mates agreed to sell down while things were quieter to not be unethical and because they wanted some funds for life in general. Everything is nicely on track and the current price is ridiculously cheap given what it will be earning in a couple of years. Sure you might pick some up cheaper soon but DD is currently looking at the shareprice saying, these guys are crazy, if only they knew the announcement was about to hit them on Tuesday.

So the question is, is it scenario 1 or 2 and how do we find out?

[MAC]

I think you have reflected a couple of camps quite well Nextbigthing,

Just to clarify for some folk, Pacific Edge have all the approvals they require for Cxbladder in the US, New Zealand and Australia and are awaiting CE Mark approval for Europe, which they tell us will come this year. Although I suspect by approval you may mean Pacific Edge entering into strategic partner agreements with integrated healthcare providers.

Investment analysis often comes down to a business case assessment and market analysis.

If a company like Pacific Edge completes clinical trials with better than anticipated results then they have already bettered many biotech companies, if they have obtained all necessary regulatory approvals then they have joined a small successful club in getting thus far. If they have a product which has a low processing cost, a projected gross margin of 80%, and which will reduce bladder cancer work up costs for insurers by 30% then they may just do well. If they entrench within the market by having leapt the multiyear barrier to entry and consolidate by stratifying with four Cxbladder products then they may do even better again. If they succeed in having their product adopted as an adjunct of the bladder cancer gold treatment standard then they may very well exceed 10% market share quite considerably.

A lot of if’s, some of which are now behind us, some of which are an active part of the strategic plan for this year. It is an important year for Pacific Edge, but no news is by no means bad news.

A lot of people perceive risk if they have an information vacuum, human nature, also because they may simply not have ready access to research or it can be that a company like Pacific Edge just get on with business and keeps a tight ship.

I’m happy to hold for the long term, I’ve been impressed with the way management lay down strategic plans and consistently meet them, it’s just my opinion but I’ve no reason to expect this to change.

[Hoop]

Lots of good trading advice on the thread this week, here’s a summary;

First draw some lines on a chart like the one below and talk about stoploss a lot, this way the newbie’s will think that you’ve been to New York and that you’re a real trader.

5708

The rules go like this, roll the dice, if you land on a ladder you must pay the tax man at the top, if you don't follow this rule you go to real jail, then you must trash the company and its management, this is totally futile and everyone will just think you are a prick, but it seems to be a mandatory rule. If you land on a snake, tell absolutely nobody, no one, especially the wife, she might take your dice away.

Or, you could just do some research, buy low, pour yourself a nice coffee, sit back, relax and watch the Muppets play the traders game.

slurp, ahhhhh, cheers,
Mac

Hmmm.....Mean reversion investing strategy....For those who haven't heard about this strategy, its a hybrid of FA and TA diciplines...Mac's green arrow is the FA part, it nearly always made up with some sort of historical Earning results and the price chart and the equations involved with means is the chartists part.

Correct me if I'm wrong here MAC but I am under the impression that PEB has negative earnings and if plotted it would be under the date line and be a "W" trend shape. This would make PEB unable to be a candidate for Mean Reversion Analysis..
If your green arrow is something else .. using very basic knowledge (and I stand to be corrected again:))...it created a sell signal (at the same time as my posted chart) around early March when the +ve curve reversed and tracked towards the negative side so to correct the mean...Measuring the area above the curve and the area below the curve gives a predictive insight as to how far below the mean line PEB will fall before it reaches mean corrected (aprroaching zero) and begin to rise up again (assuming the green arrow has the same uptrend)...when the -ve curve reverses (below the mean line) it triggers a buy signal

Conclusion:..From sighting your chart MAC it seems it (theoretically) needs some time below the mean line to correct..but hey theory and practical never predictably agree ..eh?

Update to the NASDAQ to which PEB is responding to
The bad news is NASDAQ dropped another -1.34% on friday ..so monday's NZX may be another bad day for tech stocks...

The better news (maybe or maybe not) is the Close at 4000 is on a major bull/bear support...the good news is these major supports often end bull market corrections and it's all uphill again and the price jumps up off MAC's green line.....the bad news, if they break it could be a cyclic reversal to a bear market which could last for months.......If you are an optimist then no worries ..eh.

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=COMP&uf=7168&type=2&size=2&sid=3291&style=1013&freq=1&time=8&rand=1876528926&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1

[robbo24]

Hmmm.....http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=COMP&uf=7168&type=2&size=2&sid=3291&style=1013&freq=1&time=8&rand=1876528926&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1

Hoop, why did PEB (and others) not tank in the same way in February 2014 when the Composite index fell to a level below where it is right now?

[Snow Leopard]

Hoop - I do not think MAC will appreciate you sense of humour.
Or mine.

So here is a chart (with a proper log price axis) of six years of PEB of closing prices and an approx 6 year linear regression (the longer angled straight line) and an approx 2 year linear regression (the shorter angled straight line):

5709

As you can clearly see from this PEB is:
a) currently over-priced;
b) currently under-priced.

And that I think sums everything up nicely.

Disc: Under my non-disclosure agreement (with Balance) I will say that though I may, or may not, have held PEB shares in the past it is highly unlikely, but not impossible, that I currently own some,

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

I think you have reflected a couple of camps quite well Nextbigthing,

Just to clarify for some folk, Pacific Edge have all the approvals they require for Cxbladder in the US, New Zealand and Australia and are awaiting CE Mark approval for Europe, which they tell us will come this year. Although I suspect by approval you may mean Pacific Edge entering into strategic partner agreements with integrated healthcare providers.

Investment analysis often comes down to a business case assessment and market analysis.

If a company like Pacific Edge completes clinical trials with better than anticipated results then they have already bettered many biotech companies, if they have obtained all necessary regulatory approvals then they have joined a small successful club in getting thus far. If they have a product which has a low processing cost, a projected gross margin of 80%, and which will reduce bladder cancer work up costs for insurers by 30% then they may just do well. If they entrench within the market by having leapt the multiyear barrier to entry and consolidate by stratifying with four Cxbladder products then they may do even better again. If they succeed in having their product adopted as an adjunct of the bladder cancer gold treatment standard then they may very well exceed 10% market share quite considerably.

A lot of if’s, some of which are now behind us, some of which are an active part of the strategic plan for this year. It is an important year for Pacific Edge, but no news is by no means bad news.

A lot of people perceive risk if they have an information vacuum, human nature, also because they may simply not have ready access to research or it can be that a company like Pacific Edge just get on with business and keeps a tight ship.

I’m happy to hold for the long term, I’ve been impressed with the way management lay down strategic plans and consistently meet them, it’s just my opinion but I’ve no reason to expect this to change.

Is that the only 2 choices?
Anyway,you have made a good argument in favor of the company.
So for those who are cashed up,it might be an idea to consider PEB after it finishes the down trend and the dust settles and it finds its new value in the present market.
Good company--but what is the value? And there lies the quandary

[Hoop]

oh!! nearly forget..

For those investors in PEB with the view to buy and hold...

I suggest you guys (girls) research the industrial revolution (this current one we are in)...This is the 3rd Industrial Revolution (http://www.economist.com/node/21553017)..

All revolutions are system breakers and usually cause giant economic upheaval and they are deflationary..There are many casualities...The progress of revolutions are exponential...1, 2, 4, 8, 16,......Success in stopping revolutionary change to protect the old traditional very powerful companies through lobbied Government regulation ( e.g Movie /Record industries, Pharmaceuticals (via FDA), Medical Associations) may hinder its progress at first but as exponential pressure mounts it can not be held back and it explodes with destructive force.

This present Industrial Revolution is Technical based, its very quiet the media haven't mentioned it much...but the evidence is there we have seen the product innovation and deflationary side of it through TV.s cell phones interent etc...and the lifestyle changes...The companies within the sector involved suffer low margins and can only make profit through model/product innovation hence fueling that revolution.

What sector is next in the digital revolution firing line?....I observe the biggest area many movers and shakers are seeing is their perception of the imminent explosion of the highly regulated medical sector...due to the pent up force of bio technology...Good news for PEB????....well maybe maybe not...Remember what the silicon chip explosion did to Rakon..it got swamped by an unforeseen deluge of highly funded competitors....Revolution history suggests PEB will not enjoy having a niche market to itself and enjoy high margins for long...

There is plenty of evidence that this Biotech revolution is being taken seriously...... It is expected to rock the foundations from medical businesses traditional pharmaceutical companies to insurance companies..Think Tanks are being set up around the world to explore the economic, cultural and demographic effect of each individual countries as their populations are expected to suddenly extend their life expectancies due to cheap technology available to the masses....The quote "there is someone alive in the world today that will live to see their 150th birthday"..is being taken seriously by future planners..Culturally damaging is the change in traditions where people live long enough to experience many new things including creating two or three separate families in their lifetimes is mind blowing and deemed total science fiction as short as a decade ago


I would research ...Influential people with exponential thinking (http://bigthink.com/in-their-own-words/the-difference-between-linear-and-exponential-thinking)

To get you started there is a think tank in May 2014 click here to see who's speaking (http://www.kurzweilai.net/investing-in-a-transformational-world)
Look at Patrick Cox...he accumulates news on the technology front he is very focused onto Biotechs developments and keeps an eye on the Biotech companies which look very promising (I receive his near-daily emails)...After reading his emails, for me at least, it puts PEB in a much more real perspective.

[Hoop]

Hoop, why did PEB (and others) not tank in the same way in February 2014 when the Composite index fell to a level below where it is right now?
I don't know Robbo..PEB takes up too much of my time as it is...that's unproductive for me.

I treat PEB and Bio stocks like mining stocks..There is a wise risk rule (which I unfortunately break..and have paid dearly for it too in the past..BIO,PRC) only allow mining stocks to be 10% of your portfolio,,,As my 10% is taken up with Gold miner/explorer stocks..I have little interest in the much much higher risked PEB..

Robbo...some homework for you..eh and post it on the thread I be interested to see why too...:)

[skid]

PEB strikes me as being all or nothing. They either get all the approvals in the states and it becomes huge, or, they don't get approval and they fade away.

KW (who is a she, not a he for those of you who haven't had the pleasure of meeting her yet) I read you hate the statement 'nothing has changed' - as market sentiment has changed. True and this will lead to a lower shareprice and a potential loss for traders. However even if the brown stuff really hits the fan globally, at the end of the day sadly cancer rates will not follow the market lower. And put yourself in the shoes of a cancer sufferer, if I was hurting financially due to a global downturn but had bladder issues, I'd downgrade my car or whatever I had to do to make sure I got this test at almost whatever price. I think the majority of people would think like that and therefore if PEB can get decent awareness, a downturn shouldn't matter too much as profits will still be there. Yes you might be able to buy it cheaper if sentiment continues down, however for holders, not traders, nothing has changed.

What is interesting is given the all or nothing scenario I see happening, how does the current price relate to this?

Option 1) DD and his mates have an idea that approval is not on track and sold out a decent portion while they had the chance. People in the know have an idea or this too and are quietly exiting. The 'nothing' scenario is panning out and anyone holding is f#%k#%

Option 2) The 'all' scenario. DD and his mates agreed to sell down while things were quieter to not be unethical and because they wanted some funds for life in general. Everything is nicely on track and the current price is ridiculously cheap given what it will be earning in a couple of years. Sure you might pick some up cheaper soon but DD is currently looking at the shareprice saying, these guys are crazy, if only they knew the announcement was about to hit them on Tuesday.

So the question is, is it scenario 1 or 2 and how do we find out?

Isnt it funny how in this world of cutthroat share trading we (or at least me)think of posters as ''He'' (as in KWs case)

I wonder if I changed my name to Mrskid--would you think of MR Skid or MRS KID :)

[Hoop]

Hoop - I do not think MAC will appreciate you sense of humour.
Or mine.

So here is a chart (with a proper log price axis) of six years of PEB of closing prices and an approx 6 year linear regression (the longer angled straight line) and an approx 2 year linear regression (the shorter angled straight line):

5709

As you can clearly see from this PEB is:
a) currently over-priced;
b) currently under-priced.

And that I think sums everything up nicely.

Disc: Under my non-disclosure agreement (with Balance) I will say that though I may, or may not, have held PEB shares in the past it is highly unlikely, but not impossible, that I currently own some,

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PT I didn't know you where quite this passionate about PEB
Sorry about my sense of humour PT, MAC ......nah..not really:D

Love your chart PT (Pure raw TA!!...I'm right into investor behaviour).. MAC's chart at least applied some sort of Fundamental assessment when he mentioned mean reversion...
Yep I agree with you chartwise that with the volatility I shouldv'e used a log chart too...

Your Chart PT is a mean line drawn halfway through ill-disciplined (emotional) investor behaviour...you have averaged out the questionable state of mind of PEB traders ...Remember... a mean trend is still a trend and at some point in time all trends end...In your chart PT that trend could end when investors apply discipline or changed emtional status..not necessarily the changed state of the company itself...

Your chart might be technically correct...but it is the application that provides the proof to the pudding....You applied this chart in the manner of assessing trading behaviour because you wanted a rosy result and you got a rosy result because the traders and holders in PEB are optimistic by averaging the collective price data from the past up to Friday...do you think that chart you tried so hard to look rosy will make you want to sink $ thousands more into PEB as of now, based solely on one single very long term trend indicator?

[Bobcat.]

Hope I dont regret removing stoploss at $1 but as I have stated before a much clearer picture of the company prospect will emerge in 12 months time.
Me thinks for alot of investors if $1 is broken you will see a sell off so I freely admit not having a stoploss at $1 is probably a poor decesion and may need some more thought over the weekend.
I love the saying be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy.

I for one will be buying back into PEB if it plummets through $1. Happy to pick up yours Snapiti, if and when you put that stop loss back onto the market.

For every seller there is a buyer.

BC

[warthog]

As you can clearly see from this PEB is:
a) currently over-priced;
b) currently under-priced.

...

Disc: Under my non-disclosure agreement (with Balance) I will say that though I may, or may not, have held PEB shares in the past it is highly unlikely, but not impossible, that I currently own some,

Well that's all clear then :)

But what about the future?

[robbo24]

Actually this formation is known as the bullish medieval trebuchet, which is the conceptual cousin of the two headed medusa deadlock pattern. Could be an interesting week next week.


sounds like a load of rubbish to me.
I am sure my 4 year old could join the dots on a chart and form something that you TA poeple would say wow look at that.
Lets keep it simple.... if the nasdaq tanks tommoro PEB will trade lower than todays closing price and if the nasdaq has a good rise it will go up and if the nasdaq is flat so will PEB.

Hey man I hope this helps to explain the chart patterns. This is TA, not a load of rubbish.5710

[Hoop]

Lets put this silly TA notion that some people have into perspective...

No 1 rule,,,, Try not to be biased or try to confirm one's own feelings when drawing charts... it only fools thyself...

I see personal emotion as the enemy and I try to eliminate those feelings when applying discipline..

Public misconception of a Chartist is they know the future and their discipline is criticised when that event does not happen .... Chartists know they can't see into the future..I can't guarantee what will happen with PEB as from today onwards...

However...

From historic observations and outcomes Chartists can produce the odds of a happening occurring..Most Chartists I know are successful ...Commonsense says that if you have odds at 70+% stacked in your favour you are going to have more winners than losers ..you might not get in at the bottom and out at the top but your entry/exits are far more successful and you are rewarded with less risk...

My charts show the odds-on chance of a happening....As of my last chart it showed that PEB is very risky to invest in at that moment of time (price going down to test cliff edge support) ...This stops no-one!! in wanting to achieve finding that magical bottom entry point and buys in against risky odds...no doubt they will advertise their investing prowess and poo poo TA if they succeed.

The whole idea about unbiased charting is to create risk/reward scenario and when its "safe" the charts will tell you...via buy signals..

Who knows... Monday could be the day that my charts say that PEB is a must buy.....when us Chartist deal with a bunch of variables ..we know anything can happen.....We have to keep an open mind...

[Citizen Erased]

A random comment on a random blog. Take it for what it's worth:


Every headline from every major financial news blog is now calling for a meltdown/crash. I counted at least 8 headlines on MarketWatch telling everyone the bull was over. Even Yahoo Finance was full of bearish discussion.

And the usual suspects like Marc Faber now says "crash worse than 1987", yada, yada, yada.

Today we saw pretty much non-stop put/call readings all morning over 1.30, with an opening print of a whopping 1.42.

Last time a saw that the market turned around within days and went straight up, virtually erasing all of the decline in short order.

My suspicion is way up, particularly since emerging markets are showing no sign of weakness, Greece is able to float new bonds with ease at 4.75%, corporate and junk bonds acting well, etc.

So get ready for a vicious rally early next week.

[couta1]

On a lighter note:ohmy: Watch the latest Hollywood blockbuster .Riders of the Storm versus The Trader Invasion right here on ST in 3D (Rose coloured tinted glasses provided for an extra charge of $1.07,discounted to 80c on monday) Come watch this epic battle as the gritty long termers battle it out with the traders armed with their Graphs,Charts,Pencils and join the dots colouring in books. PS- All moviegoers will be required to provide a pee sample before entering the cinema,results will be available at the conclusion of the movie,failed results will be sent for futher testing to PEB headquarters,those testing positive will be eligible for bonus shares at a heavily discounted price.:cool:

[Snow Leopard]

PT I didn't know you where quite this passionate about PEB
Sorry about my sense of humour PT, MAC ......nah..not really:D

Love your chart PT (Pure raw TA!!...I'm right into investor behaviour).. MAC's chart at least applied some sort of Fundamental assessment when he mentioned mean reversion...
Yep I agree with you chartwise that with the volatility I shouldv'e used a log chart too...

Your Chart PT is a mean line drawn halfway through ill-disciplined (emotional) investor behaviour...you have averaged out the questionable state of mind of PEB traders ...Remember... a mean trend is still a trend and at some point in time all trends end...In your chart PT that trend could end when investors apply discipline or changed emtional status..not necessarily the changed state of the company itself...

Your chart might be technically correct...but it is the application that provides the proof to the pudding....You applied this chart in the manner of assessing trading behaviour because you wanted a rosy result and you got a rosy result because the traders and holders in PEB are optimistic by averaging the collective price data from the past up to Friday...do you think that chart you tried so hard to look rosy will make you want to sink $ thousands more into PEB as of now, based solely on one single very long term trend indicator?

Gosh, you got a different view out of my post than I put in - just go back and read it again - carefully - would you - and then you can sing the song (below). :p Rosy ? Rosy ? Rosy?


...

From historic observations and outcomes Chartists can produce the odds of a happening occurring..Most Chartists I know are successful ...Commonsense says that if you have odds at 70+% stacked in your favour you are going to have more winners than losers ..you might not get in at the bottom and out at the top but your entry/exits are far more successful and you are rewarded with less risk...

My charts show the odds-on chance of a happening....

This calls for a song (http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/s/supremes/the_happening.html):

Hey life look at me, I can see the reality
Cause when you shook me, took me out of my world
I woke up, suddenly I just woke up to the happening.


When you find that you left the future behind
Cause when you got a tender love you don-t
Take care of, then you better beware of the happening.


One day you-re up, then you turn around
You find your world is tumbling down
It happened to me and it can happen to you.


I was sure, I felt secure, until love took a detour
Yeah, riding high on top of the world
It happened, suddenly it just happened.


I saw my dreams fall apart, when love walked away from my heart
And when you lose that precious love you need to guide you
Something happens inside you, the happening.


Now I see life for what it is
It-s not all dreams, it-s not all bliss
It happened to me and it can happen to you
Once!


Ooo, and then it happened
Ooo, and then it happened
Ooo, and then it happened
Ooo, and then it happened.


Is it real, is it fake, is this game of life a mistake
Cause when I lost the love I thought was mine
For certain, suddenly I started hurting.


I saw the light too late, when that fickle finger of fate
Yeah came and broke my pretty balloon
I woke up, suddenly I just walked up to the happening.


So sure, I felt secure, until love took a detour
Cause when you got a tender love you don-t
Take care of, then you better beware of the happening.


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[percy]

Did you buy the share's I sold at $1.65 too.:p

I am a bit new to this thread.
Looks as though I have missed a lot of fun!!!!!!

[Goldstein]

I am a bit new to this thread.
Looks as though I have missed a lot of fun!!!!!!

Hi Percy, here are the rules of late:

1. Get drunk before you post
2. Always allude to random bad news coming from the US
3. DYOR - actually just Google cancer and pee then post a link
4. If you're a TA guy pick an investor and berate them. If you're long on PEB pick a TA poster and allude to goat's entrails.

[percy]

Hi Percy, here are the rules of late:

1. Get drunk before you post
2. Always allude to random bad news coming from the US
3. DYOR - actually just Google cancer and pee then post a link
4. If you're a TA guy pick an investor and berate them. If you're long on PEB pick a TA poster and allude to goat's entrails.

I am not up to it.!!
Think I will watch the fun from the sidelines!!! lol.

[Minerbarejet]

I am not up to it.!!
Think I will watch the fun from the sidelines!!! lol.
You will be very well positioned there Percy.
Think I'll join you:)

[cammo]

These share thingumyjigs certainly obey the laws of physics, because when there's a perceived vacuum, you guys go hard trying to use osmosis to wipe it out! You all shift in and start a party! There's probably more posts in here than when an actual announcement rolls out!

[nextbigthing]

If anyone else was wondering why PT insists on using those confusing log charts with their seemingly crazy y axis, here's a very easy to understand explanation of linear versus log and why they're actually very useful.

https://www.fool.com/foolfaq/foolfaqcharts.htm


For some more technical background reading;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale

[skid]

On a lighter note:ohmy: Watch the latest Hollywood blockbuster .Riders of the Storm versus The Trader Invasion right here on ST in 3D (Rose coloured tinted glasses provided for an extra charge of $1.07,discounted to 80c on monday) Come watch this epic battle as the gritty long termers battle it out with the traders armed with their Graphs,Charts,Pencils and join the dots colouring in books. PS- All moviegoers will be required to provide a pee sample before entering the cinema,results will be available at the conclusion of the movie,failed results will be sent for futher testing to PEB headquarters,those testing positive will be eligible for bonus shares at a heavily discounted price.:cool:

And all the Gritty long termers have to bring is their bank balance:)

[skid]

Time to hug the kids and go out and enjoy the day.
That sureal world inside the computer screen will have to wait till later tonight or Monday:):)

[MAC]

The answer is simply just to value the way professional analyst’s value biotech startup’s like Pacific Edge.

Deloitte: How to value a biotechnology company (http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_CA/ca/industries/tmt/b6115312b90fb110VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm)
Investopedia: Using DCF In Biotech Valuation (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/biotechvaluation.asp)

Value what can be valued, that’s Cxbladder for now, all the retained IP and all the pipeline products also have good intrinsic value but IMHO we cannot meaningfully quantify those just yet without more information, perhaps later in the year.

Cxbladder Base Case (HY18 NZ$100M in revenues): FY14 $1.70 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=450213&highlight=risk+and+valuation#post450213)
Cxbladder Late Case (FY18 NZ$100M in revenues): FY14 $1.40
Cxbladder Early Case (HY17 NZ$100M in revenues): FY14 $2.30

If the “tens of thousands of sales in 2014” calendar year guidance provided by Pacific Edge plays out this may well influence an early case possibility. We should get a good feel for this at HY15 reporting in November, perhaps a hint also at FY14 reporting in a few week’s time.

If you’re not taking up this entry point, do be prepared to sit on the sidelines for the rest of the year.

Disc: Screaming Buy (no change)

[Minerbarejet]

Pacific Edge Announces Successful Completion of Colorectal Cancer Prognostic Clinical Trial

Clinical Results Presented Today at ASCO 2010


CHICAGO, IL (June 4, 2010): Pacific Edge (PEB) a New Zealand-based biomedical company, today announced the successful completion of the European clinical trial for their prognostic gene signature for colorectal cancer. The clinical trial results showed a successful outcome that enables patients diagnosed with UICC stage II or UICC stage III colorectal cancer and with a high risk of disease progression to be identified and treated more appropriately. PEB’s European licensee, Signature Diagnostics (SDX) completed the clinical trial and will present the results at the annual scientific meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago on the 4th of June.

Chief Executive Officer David Darling stated that the conclusion of the European clinical trial, was a significant commercial milestone for Pacific Edge. “This prognostic gene signature for colorectal cancer is our second commercial product, and joins our bladder cancer diagnostic assay, Cxbladder™. Cxbladder™ is a fast, non-invasive assay that measures the activity of five genes from a small sample of the patient’s urine to accurately diagnose bladder cancer.”

Pacific Edge Chief Scientific Officer, Parry Guilford commented that the company’s prognostic gene signature will meet a large unmet clinical need for patients diagnosed with stage II and stage III colorectal cancer. “Our prognostic gene signature identifies patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer whose disease is aggressive, likely to recur after surgery, and who would benefit from additional therapy”.

Pacific Edge granted a European exclusive licence for its new cutting-edge prognostic gene signature for colorectal cancer to SDX in late 2006 with commercialisation pending a sucessful completion of the clinical trial. Europe is the second largest healthcare market in the world after the United States and represents around 30 per cent of global health care spending.

Colorectal cancer has the second highest incidence of all cancers in the world, with over 1.1 million new cases diagnosed annually. It has a particularly high incidence in Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America. This year more than 530,000 people around the world are expected to die from the disease.
In case you missed it.
If the singular cxbladder was trading at 45c before it went solo ballistic would it be safe to reason that cxcolorectal prognosis (since confirmed to be brought forward to market this year)could be given a similiar 45c valuation at this point prior to any signups?. It would seem that this is not currently reflected in the share price for if it is then cx bladder has only gone up 20c in value

[couta1]

And all the Gritty long termers have to bring is their bank balance:)
We like to keep it simple Skid,let the TAers/Traders play with all their toys:cool:

[winner69]

For what it worth my DCF valuations under different discount rate and terminal growth rate sensitivities are below.

My preferred case is 15% discount rate and 5%pa terminal growth rate. This gives a DCF valuation of $1.07

Revenues are sort of aligned to the Harbour Capital chart of late last year and has revenues growing to $155m in 2020. I have assumed a 75% Gross Margin and cash expenses increasing over the next few years before levelling off. Tax is payable from 2017

Revenues and expenses are all big guesses so this is best I can do. Maybe my margin assumption is too low, maybe I reckon ongoing expenses is too high .... I really don't know

For you 10% interest rate guys $1.45 to $4.33 looks pretty good eh but for me the range is $0.84 to $1.29 (the 15% discount rate numbers). If I change the Gross Margin to 80% this range is $.092 to $1.41 ..... and if I take a few mill off operating expenses as well the range becomes $0,.95 to $1.45

[winner69]

are you guys valuing PEB or just cxbladder?

Probably only the one product ....unless the Harbour Capital forecasts include other new products.

[Minerbarejet]

Have been going through the thread again. Anyone interested in reading some of STC's very valuable, timely and insightful posts it appears we have a few survivors courtesy of reply with quote
Postings, 188,348,5209,5213
If you are newest postings first ie. Reverse order from default
Pages are 180,146, 54,54
Will post more as discovered
Cheers
Miner

[skid]

We like to keep it simple Skid,let the TAers/Traders play with all their toys:cool:

So what are the others basing their value decisions on -Is it only gut feeling?

And if it is-Is it gut feeling for only PEB or for the market as well.

I have a gut feeling this is a good company--but valuing it is a bit more complicated ,especially now.

Ive got alot more respect for the boys with their toys at this stage--For some ,it has saved their bacon because it takes into consideration the market as well as the company.

Mr Market has been a nice guy for quite a while now ,but he is in a real bad mood ATM