PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd [Archive] - Page 25

nextbigthing

13-04-2014, 10:18 PM

So what are the others basing their value decisions on -Is it only gut feeling?

And if it is-Is it gut feeling for only PEB or for the market as well.

I have a gut feeling this is a good company--but valuing it is a bit more complicated ,especially now.

Ive got alot more respect for the boys with their toys at this stage--For some ,it has saved their bacon because it takes into consideration the market as well as the company.

Mr Market has been a nice guy for quite a while now ,but he is in a real bad mood ATM

Interesting comment Mr Skid regarding taking into account the market and the company. It sounds like the logical thing to do and yet by ignoring what the market thought and buying/selling when prices were irrational in his view is what made Buffett squillions. Would Buffett think this price is irrational? Who knows. He would probably be paying someone to watch the lab and see how many courier drop offs were occurring though...

MAC

13-04-2014, 10:47 PM

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”5715

Minerbarejet

14-04-2014, 07:48 AM

Are you implying there will be another buffeting today ?:)

craic

14-04-2014, 08:22 AM

Almost up to 500 pages on this share - a sure sign of people doing their dough! Simply, the success of a share is in inverse proportion to the number of posts about it.

winner69

14-04-2014, 08:46 AM

moosie am I right in suggesting that this chart shows a 20% correction in biotech stock since late feb

Yes - down 21.1% since Feb 25

IXIC only down about 8% in same period

Hey nbt - does this mean biotechs oversold and are now cheap as, like really cheap.

Good time to buy PEB at $1.00 to $1.10 if really worth $1.70?

winner69

14-04-2014, 08:49 AM

Almost up to 500 pages on this share - a sure sign of people doing their dough! Simply, the success of a share is in inverse proportion to the number of posts about it.

Interesting observation there craic

Puts PEB in the same class as NZO / Pike River / Rakon and with Snakk catching up fast

Even TEL hasn't got anywhere near this number of pages

nextbigthing

14-04-2014, 09:12 AM

Yes - down 21.1% since Feb 25

IXIC only down about 8% in same period

Hey nbt - does this mean biotechs oversold and are now cheap as, like really cheap.

Good time to buy PEB at $1.00 to $1.10 if really worth $1.70?

Hey Winner,

Let me ask the questions here thanks. You're supposed to be answering.

nextbigthing

14-04-2014, 09:13 AM

Interesting observation there craic

Puts PEB in the same class as NZO / Pike River / Rakon and with Snakk catching up fast

Even TEL hasn't got anywhere near this number of pages

XRO.... Only about 6 pages a day. All of it perfectly reasoned analysis though.

Now I'm starting to sound like Winner. Crikey!

Bobcat.

14-04-2014, 09:42 AM

Did you buy the share's I sold at $1.65 too.:p

I've stayed out since selling at 171. Tempted a couple of times but there's been too much selling pressure for my liking. Anticipating a bounce from somewhere in the 90s today.

The price around 10 minutes after market open will IMO be definitive. Trading to it. Trouble is, I bought a lot of OGC a week ago on the nzx and my TIL haven't yet peaked for a sale, and so I'm a bit light on NZD. I could transfer from my AUD holdings into NZDs but instead I think I'll purchase just a small parcel this time until we get higher lows ...later this week?

psychic

14-04-2014, 10:06 AM

It is not worth a $1.70 all the insiders selling at those high levels is proof of that.

This talk about ALL the insiders "selling out"
Early to mid March, there were 3 sale disclosures that shook the earth beneath a few here.
Darling sold 100K (still has 3.0m shares)
Masfens sold 4.0m (don't know what they still hold)
Swan sold say 342k (still holds 800k)

Huljich still have 14.7m, SSH still has 20m - Have not been selling that I see

Masfens aside, wouldn't you think that these guys would have flogged off one hell of a lot more if they were worried?

Bobcat.

14-04-2014, 10:13 AM

geez exactly how I was going to play it.

I'm back in, having bought a few at an even one dollar per share. Psychological support?

psychic

14-04-2014, 10:15 AM

If they were motivated by price, they would have sold more surely.

skid

14-04-2014, 10:16 AM

Interesting comment Mr Skid regarding taking into account the market and the company. It sounds like the logical thing to do and yet by ignoring what the market thought and buying/selling when prices were irrational in his view is what made Buffett squillions. Would Buffett think this price is irrational? Who knows. He would probably be paying someone to watch the lab and see how many courier drop offs were occurring though...

And once he established its a good company, dont you think he would wait for it to bottom out before buying?

golden city

14-04-2014, 10:21 AM

i can't control my self., have bought in at 1.00

skid

14-04-2014, 10:21 AM

I'm back in, having bought a few at an even one dollar per share. Psychological support?
Thats weird my DB site is still showing 1.10 start. ??

skid

14-04-2014, 10:23 AM

Ahh.....there it goes ssssssss

JimHickey

14-04-2014, 10:28 AM

Posters like Snapiti are the reason that this forum is rapidly becoming a waste of time.

golden city

14-04-2014, 10:29 AM

got the feeling., it is going over 1.10 today..might be somewhere at 1.15

golden city

14-04-2014, 10:29 AM

volume is high for two days...,

Bobcat.

14-04-2014, 10:36 AM

Posters like Snapiti are the reason that this forum is rapidly becoming a waste of time.

Play the ball, not the man. We don't allow it in civilised sport, and it's no more civilised here. Criticise a fellow poster's posts by all means JH, but please keep personal attacks out of this thread.

BC

Minerbarejet

14-04-2014, 10:46 AM

Hmmmmm, 1.1 mil in 40 minutes. Not bad - could be the rush is over. Well thats the nasdaq saga out of the way, whats next.( he said hopefully) Good for a big bounce this week?

MAC

14-04-2014, 10:48 AM

Posters like Snapiti are the reason that this forum is rapidly becoming a waste of time.

It would be satisfying to see more honest insight and analysis, particularly for the benefit of new investors. But at the end of the day everyone see’s though all the stock knockers and the motives of a vocal few.

I get much more benefit and sharing of key info from the private message groups, agree though that the main forum is not at all what it was or what most would like it to be.

Balance

14-04-2014, 10:49 AM

Interesting reading of latest share register - basically one huge seller.

Plenty more to go. :(

Bobcat.

14-04-2014, 10:50 AM

Technically, RSI is the lowest it's ever been, volume is high and there is psychological support at $1. Anyone nervous buying at these levels could mitigate risk with a stop loss at 98c. Risk/reward ratio now looks good to go long...IMO.

blackcap

14-04-2014, 10:53 AM

It would be satisfying to see more honest insight and analysis, particularly for the benefit of new investors. But at the end of the day everyone see’s though all the stock knockers and the motives of a vocal few.

Stock knockers are just as valuable as stock rampers. I see no difference between someone who posts their negative opinion on a stock and someone who posts their positive opinion on a stock.

golden city

14-04-2014, 10:58 AM

it is on the way up.., god ..band on ..

Balance

14-04-2014, 10:59 AM

Stock knockers are just as valuable as stock rampers. I see no difference between someone who posts their negative opinion on a stock and someone who posts their positive opinion on a stock.

All good. Doomsday merchants come out when a stock or the market is dropping, and bulls come out when a stock or the market is climbing - such is the nature of things.

Why? Because their voices will otherwise be drowned out by the trend.

As a very successful fund manager with CBA said to me once, he does not bother with consensus opinions unless he is trading. He always looks for the negative comments when a stock is running hot, and the positive comments when a stock is dropping. Takes guts and fortitude.

craic

14-04-2014, 11:05 AM

Interesting observation there craic

Puts PEB in the same class as NZO / Pike River / Rakon and with Snakk catching up fast

Even TEL hasn't got anywhere near this number of pages
And a significant factor is that most of PEBs posts sre in the last year - the others have been going for years.

nextbigthing

14-04-2014, 11:08 AM

And once he established its a good company, dont you think he would wait for it to bottom out before buying?

Sounds logical Mr Skid. Fair call.

Where's the bottom?:eek2:

youngatheart

14-04-2014, 11:17 AM

Congrats to those who picked them up at $1.00 today - you've made a 3% gain already. Not bad for an hours 'work'.

Roadrunner

14-04-2014, 11:27 AM

golden city

14-04-2014, 11:30 AM

looking it to break 1.08...before we can be happy today

skid

14-04-2014, 11:35 AM

Hmmmmm, 1.1 mil in 40 minutes. Not bad - could be the rush is over. Well thats the nasdaq saga out of the way, whats next.( he said hopefully) Good for a big bounce this week?

Nasdaq saga out of the way---Huh?

I guess theres not much else to go on at this stage but what is at hand,but the fact that everyone is ignoring the fact that the real issue IS the Nasdac ,I gotta say-totally astounds me:scared:

skid

14-04-2014, 11:57 AM

Sounds logical Mr Skid. Fair call.

Where's the bottom?:eek2:

Sorry,I wasnt very clear on that.
I dont think anyone can accurately pick --the bottom--you see it in retrospect.
I think the smart money buys on the way back up--They wait till the downtrend finishes and then sacrifices whatever lost profits it takes to establish the uptrend--otherwise you might as well just throw a dart.
To take any gains to seriously though atm(today)is disregarding what has mostly caused this which is the Nasdaq.

nextbigthing

14-04-2014, 12:07 PM

I dont think anyone can accurately pick --the bottom--you see it in retrospect....

That's why I think he just ignored what the market was doing, he didn't bother trying to pick the bottom, if it was underpriced he bought up big time then contacted all the analysts and brokers and showed them what they had missed.

Probably not the best option for us mere mortals but still.

Minerbarejet

14-04-2014, 12:12 PM

Nasdaq saga out of the way---Huh?

I guess theres not much else to go on at this stage but what is at hand,but the fact that everyone is ignoring the fact that the real issue IS the Nasdac ,I gotta say-totally astounds me:scared:While I admire your dedication to nasdaq as being either harbinger of doom or the chief trumpeteer I am afraid I must disagree that it is the only issue at hand. A lack of sales data would seem to be more important than the collective guiding figure of some irrational, at times, overseas stock market. A substantial sales figure from PEB would certainly put nasdaq on the back burner as far as PEB is concerned. IMHO

Schrodinger

14-04-2014, 12:41 PM

Just checked the long term chart, skyscraper forming.

MAC

14-04-2014, 12:42 PM

While I admire your dedication to nasdaq as being either harbinger of doom or the chief trumpeteer I am afraid I must disagree that it is the only issue at hand. A lack of sales data would seem to be more important than the collective guiding figure of some irrational, at times, overseas stock market. A substantial sales figure from PEB would certainly put nasdaq on the back burner as far as PEB is concerned. IMHO

Corrections, they come, they go, as do the whims of traders, bet Hancock’s has seen a few such distractions drift by.

Pacific Edge have a nice comprehensive territorial sales strategy for all to read and appreciate, and a five year goal to match. I don’t think this coming sales report is at all important really, after only five months of selling into the US to 31 March, most of that time will have been taken up in hiring and training staff, and in further client relationship building. We should expect something meaningful and indicative from the November report though.

I’m looking for 1,000 to 5,000 sales or so, but the commentary will be more important particularly in respect to adherence on the new product launch schedule, and progress on user group studies in Europe which are probably required for CE Mark registration, etc.

Hoop

14-04-2014, 12:53 PM

Gosh, you got a different view out of my post than I put in - just go back and read it again - carefully - would you - and then you can sing the song (below). :p Rosy ? Rosy ? Rosy?

This calls for a song

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

See what happens when you sing PT

PEB at 102 (losing its "rally" momentum this morning) ....down another 7c...

ROSY ROSY didn't work either...I suggest you toss your chart away as well.

EDIT: NASDQ held support at 4000 Friday...:)

warthog

14-04-2014, 12:57 PM

See what happens when you sing PT

PEB at 102 (losing its "rally" momentum this morning) ....down another 7c...

ROSY ROSY didn't work...I suggest you toss your chart away too.

EDIT: NASDQ held support at 4000 Friday...:)

PEB looking weak.

The hog doesn't consider $1.00 to be anything other than another $0.01 increment in this context.

Can't be that many Roadrunners looking for 96k shares.

Minerbarejet

14-04-2014, 01:03 PM

Corrections, they come, they go, as do the whims of traders, bet Hancock’s has seen a few such distractions drift by.

Pacific Edge have a nice comprehensive territorial sales strategy for all to read and appreciate, and a five year goal to match. I don’t think this coming sales report is at all important really, after only five months of selling into the US to 31 March, most of that time will have been taken up in hiring and training staff, and in further client relationship building. We should expect something meaningful and indicative from the November report though.

I’m looking for 1,000 to 5,000 sales or so, but the commentary will be more important particularly in respect to adherence on the new product launch schedule, and progress on user group studies in Europe which are probably required for CE Mark registration, etc. I should have added "at any time" to a substantial sales report. Wouldnt expect much in May but you never know with this share. Suddenly, when you least expect it, etc
Must admit the g forces are getting a bit much on the roller coaster

Bobcat.

14-04-2014, 01:05 PM

If 101 holds, then today's (intraday) higher low will bode well for PEB tomorrow and Wednesday (after presumably the NASDAQ tonight bounces off its 4000 double bottom). I'm seeing resistance at 115 (weak) and 120 (stronger).

If not, then we wait until later this week to see it climb back. Either way, I'm comfortable buying at these prices.

BC

Whipmoney

14-04-2014, 01:07 PM

Balance

14-04-2014, 01:11 PM

I'm looking for an entry of <93c.

One more day of blood to go moosie?

My estimate is that there's probably another 5m shares to go by the seller.

So keep a close eye on the turnover.

If another big holder starts selling too, then all bets are off!

Bobcat.

14-04-2014, 01:17 PM

...or if a big buyer enters, and at these levels that's now become more likely.

Balance

14-04-2014, 01:26 PM

...or if a big buyer enters, and at these levels that's now become more likely.

That's why it pays to keep a close eye from now on who's buying.

Appears to be small investors so far.

Hoop

14-04-2014, 01:46 PM

Temptation got the better of me and decided to buy 96000 PEB this morning @ 103.84 av.Reasons...I believe they have been oversold,unlikely to be holding when the sales numbers are announced though,but longer term a sound company I believe.

Is greed forcing you (or these characters on this thread) to buy in during a sharp downtrend ...why not sacrifice a few cents and wait for short/medium term buy signals and time your buys..

The TA works the same for all time charts

The very short/short term one day chart (self updating) below showed a turn around at 11.00am (Candlesticks tails) sellers losing faith and opting to sell after the wait and see "rally" lost its momentum after opening...Roadrunner your 11.30 am buy in was where the loss of momentum was happening...Notice DMI not showing any short term signals OBV rise ended at 10.45 triggering very short term caution signal.
.I spent most of yesterday trying to show timing using TA..so these timing losses don't happen

.....but it seems it's all falling on deaf ears on this thread.

....I give up!!!!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=NZ%3aPEB&uf=0&type=4&size=4&sid=1564029&style=320&freq=7&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=1&rand=405895868&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=2&maval=12&lf=1&lf2=8&lf3=1024&height=981&width=1045&mocktick=1

psychic

14-04-2014, 01:59 PM

My estimate is that there's probably another 5m shares to go by the seller.

So keep a close eye on the turnover.

If another big holder starts selling too, then all bets are off!

Is this the Masfens? I'd figured they had about 8.0m left. They have been exiting for a couple of years now so I don't see how selling more now should be so concerning.

But agree, if any of the others dumped at current prices it would be alarming.

There has been no hint of this has there? To me this still says PEB has major stakeholder confidence.

Whipmoney

14-04-2014, 02:07 PM

I wonder how many stops are set at $1 or 0.99c?

Whipmoney

14-04-2014, 02:21 PM

The TA works the same for all time charts

The very short/short term one day chart (self updating) below showed a turn around at 11.00am (Candlesticks tails) sellers losing faith and opting to sell after the wait and see "rally" lost its momentum after opening...Roadrunner your 11.30 am buy in was where the loss of momentum was happening...Notice DMI not showing any short term signals OBV rise ended at 10.45 triggering very short term caution signal.
.I spent most of yesterday trying to show timing using TA..so these timing losses don't happen

.....but it seems it's all falling on deaf ears on this thread.

....I give up!!!!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=NZ%3aPEB&uf=0&type=4&size=4&sid=1564029&style=320&freq=7&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=1&rand=405895868&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=2&maval=12&lf=1&lf2=8&lf3=1024&height=981&width=1045&mocktick=1

I'm still interested in your magic Hoop!

Bobcat.

14-04-2014, 02:31 PM

The best time to buy a stock is when it is most disfavoured...emotionally. Are we there yet?

Balance

14-04-2014, 02:33 PM

The best time to buy a stock is when it is most disfavoured...emotionally. Are we there yet?

Is there information out there that we are unaware of to prompt this aggressive sell down? That is the million dollar question at this point.

Whipmoney

14-04-2014, 02:36 PM

Is there information out there that we are unaware of to prompt this aggressive sell down? That is the million dollar question at this point.

Obviously hard to tell without the benefit of hindsight but if you're right in that its primarily one or two large insiders selling then it wouldn't be a great look if it turns out they knew something in advance of the market.

If its just the Masfens selling then its likely that they are de-risking/profit taking or that they have something better to put their time and money into.

Bobcat.

14-04-2014, 02:48 PM

As has been posted already, the NASDAQ's Biotech sector slump (plummet?) this past month is IMO the single most important factor influencing the sell down of PEB (and probably also XRO, BLT, WYN, etc). I'm confident we will see a bounce-back of sorts from the NASDAQ tonight off its Feb 3 support base of 3440. As to how sustainable that recovery will be, we won't know until later this month...but any bounceback will IMO lift PEB's sp well above the psychological support level of $1.

$1.20 is my short-term target. Trading to it.

BC

Whipmoney

14-04-2014, 03:07 PM

As to how sustainable that recovery will be, we won't know until later this month...but any bounceback will IMO lift PEB's sp well above the psychological support level of $1.

$1.20 is my short-term target. Trading to it. BC

Personally I'm looking at the opposite. The stock has taken a big hit already and with big seller(s) offloading the million dollar question is: who will be buying?

Retail investors? Sure potentially there is a handful who see the stock as trading at a good discount to what it may have been worth but do they outnumber the sellers?

I also can't see that many big instos will be wanting to jump onboard for a value play as:

(A) the stock is very hard to value quantitatively, and
(B) there is a potential sector rotation going on, and biotech growth stocks are a very risky place to put your money, at least in the short to medium term.

I'm staying well clear until the dust settles.

Bobcat.

14-04-2014, 03:18 PM

How is this even a debatable point right now??

Why does every sentence in a post need to be debatable, Tumeric? My point is that the converse will also be true - namely, any bounce-back in the sp of those stocks in the Biotech sector trading in the NASDAQ 100 will almost certainly produce a bounce-back in the sp of PEB...and that the NASDAQ 100 has a Feb 3 confirmed support level of 3440 which increases the likelihood of a bounce-back tonight.

I'm trading to it...but of course nobody is saying that you need to. Each to his own view. Picking momentum shifts is as much as art as it is a science (FA, TA or other). The proof will be in tomorrow's trading. Hoping not to be proved wrong (not just for my sake for the sake of others holding).

Discl: holding again, as from this morning.

BC

Balance

14-04-2014, 03:28 PM

Obviously hard to tell without the benefit of hindsight but if you're right in that its primarily one or two large insiders selling then it wouldn't be a great look if it turns out they knew something in advance of the market.

If its just the Masfens selling then its likely that they are de-risking/profit taking or that they have something better to put their time and money into.

Not just the Masfens.

psychic

14-04-2014, 03:30 PM

Not just the Masfens.

Then who , and how do we gather this info Balance?

blackcap

14-04-2014, 03:34 PM

Then who , and how do we gather this info Balance?

Just ask your broker for a list of top 100 shareholders. I think from memory it is updated every fortnight, or monthly. They can give it to you in excel format. Shows the name of entity or person, change in holding etc.

Balance

14-04-2014, 03:36 PM

Then who , and how do we gather this info Balance?

As someone has already alluded to, multi-sellers have emerged in the last month.

I see a company associated with Eion Edgar of Forsyth Barr has sold 1m shares as well.

psychic

14-04-2014, 03:38 PM

Thanks, another reason to strike a relationship up with a broker I suppose,
Seems a bit queer that this info is not public if available to Brokers..?

blackcap

14-04-2014, 03:42 PM

Thanks, another reason to strike a relationship up with a broker I suppose,
Seems a bit queer that this info is not public if available to Brokers..?

Don't quote me on it but I think brokers source it from somewhere else too.

Harvey Specter

14-04-2014, 03:46 PM

Thanks, another reason to strike a relationship up with a broker I suppose,
Seems a bit queer that this info is not public if available to Brokers..?
I believe anyone can ask a company for a full list of shareholders at any time. I am not sure if they can charge but they cant refuse, unlike in Australia.

Perfect for those wanting to do a low ball offer.

Roadrunner

14-04-2014, 06:20 PM

RR, you still holding DIL and now buying PEB? Man when you want in you go for it! You also likey catchee knifee!

Haha!Yeah Moosie,I prefer the term rising eagle than falling knife though!!......just looking at a fairly short term punt this time.Had to sell a few DIL to pay for these today but definately want to be fully back in when DIL have their audited accounts ready.I`m banking on a good bounce back with the tech stocks this week and I do think that the PEB sell off has been overdone.

skid

14-04-2014, 06:54 PM

PEB sell off has been overdone if the Nasdaq sell off has been overdone--and vice versa.

I dont think the odds are in our favor atm,but we will see.
Last week a slight rise turned into a motivation for alot to sell and the relief was short lived--Care is needed.

I believe it will need to be a big rise to quell the fear

Minerbarejet

14-04-2014, 07:54 PM

Snow Leopard

14-04-2014, 08:22 PM

I thought it went to $1.70 because MAC said that is what is was worth.

I assume it is down to $1.01 because winner69 threw his little spreadsheet into the ring with $0.84 - $1.29.

Me I just think the charts looks really narsty at the moment (especialy Hoop's :p).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Minerbarejet

14-04-2014, 08:55 PM

skid

14-04-2014, 09:03 PM

Ok , so when Peb went from the 50c level to 1.70 did the nasdaq go up by the same percentage amount over the same period?

At the time that was happening the Nasdaq was stable or rising.

Because the ''background'' (Nasdaq)was more or less stable it barely merited a thought,the emphases was more on the company itself,which as you know was tickity boo.

But then aside from some directors selling a few lots of shares,the big news was the Nasdaq taking a dive.

Suddenly the company itself became yesterdays news and the Nasdaq became the ''main event'' with obvious results.

The Nasdaq is the only show in town now IMO ,and until it settles This tiny little NZ company is not going to have much influence barring a major announcement.

Even If that announcement comes it will have nowhere near the same impact as it would have had before.

So all eyes on the Nasdaq --- Our fate is in Americas hands

Minerbarejet

14-04-2014, 09:35 PM

Well said, our fate is definitely in American hands - especially those holding small sample pottles of product for testing.:)

couta1

14-04-2014, 09:43 PM

[QUOTE=Minerbarejet;Well said, our fate is definitely in American hands - especially those holding small sample pottles of product for testing.:)[/QUOTE]
The Yanks will soon realise they have throw the baby out with the bathwater and want their tech/bio tech babies back in their rightful place,boring utilities type stocks aint going to keep them satisfied for long,they always come back to the exciting and bright lights of broadway:cool:

Whipmoney

14-04-2014, 09:53 PM

Some people need to learn basic capm concepts otherwise they may say some things that appear slightly dumb
Actually CAPM is a joke...

Theoretically sound but only if your "market" is the entire market, i.e. all stocks and bonds across the world.

As soon as you use a proxy for the "market" it all falls to bits.

blackcap

14-04-2014, 09:56 PM

Actually CAPM is a joke...

Theoretically sound but only if your "market" is the entire market, i.e. all stocks and bonds across the world.

As soon as you use a proxy for the "market" it all falls to bits.

Yeah but it helps if you understand the concepts that make up the CAPM.

robbo24

14-04-2014, 10:01 PM

MAC

14-04-2014, 10:03 PM

Just for morbid academic interest I’ve run beta correlations with the Nasdaq, normally I only run S&P500 and NZ50.

PEB:Nasdaq, 3 month, 1 day shifted Beta: 1.21
PEB:Nasdaq, 6 month, 1 day shifted Beta: 0.97
PEB:Nasdaq, 12 month, 1 day shifted Beta: 0.69

PEB:S&P500, 12 month, 1 day shifted Beta: 0.60
PEB:NZ50, 12 month, 0 day shifted Beta: 1.45

It does seem that when Pacific Edge just quietly and routinely get on with the biso, as Hancock’s aptly puts it, and thus remove the traders fix for announcements, it seems they evidentially panic and start to look for squiggly lines elsewhere to follow.

It’s a bit like studying lab rats really, I’m sure there must be a paper here for those guys at the University of Waikato.

Reporting season, a bit of anticipated new product and new market news, might provide a more sensible focus again, but then lab rats aren’t all that smart are they ?.

Minerbarejet

14-04-2014, 10:09 PM

FTSE down nearly 2% already tonight, think we're in the midst of a nice, juicy correction now. Whether we come out better off or worse is the toss of a coin really!

Hope everyone has ^NBI on their lists to watch how to trade PEB these days!
Moosie did you have to post that, - do we have to watch out for the FTSE as well now? Whats next, Brazil, Russia, Canada, Mozambique?

Intel

14-04-2014, 10:17 PM

5719

PEB at a dollar... Where does it sit on this diagram??

Plz note: I forgot who posted this, back when DIL was taking its original hammering, and I've always found it to be a useful reminder of the emotions. Was it Xerof???

After trawling through the last 20 pages, the mood is set at the denial stage I believe. Everyone needs to strap in as this will get a lot worse if markets continue to collapse globally. all you have to do is look at markets, the days QE policy's are announced by the us and eu to see how they have been fueled. And yes you should be paying attention to all markets around the world. You can't think of peb or any stock in isolation. They have to be compared relative to one another and looked at in a risk return framework...

robbo24

14-04-2014, 10:26 PM

Bloggers and their noise... I think couta1's "Head in the Sand" technique has the hallmarks of a winner.

What does my boy James Gruber say (http://www.investing.com/analysis/why-stocks-won%27t-crash-%28at-least-for-now%29-209479) about all of this?

AC Speed Read

A marginal pullback has led to a number of commentators suggesting a market crash is imminent.
Henry Blodget is among the most prominent, calling for a potential S&P 500 market decline of up to 50% over the next 1-2 years.
There are some flaws in his argument though, as Fed tightening is typically bullish for stocks, at least in the two years after an initial rate hike.
Given a rate hike is likely to happen next year at the earliest, that means a more substantial market correction will have to wait to 2017, if history is any guide.
The key risk to this scenario is a deflationary bust, precipitated by Japan and/or China.

That's right - there's plenty to say about the idea that the big crash isn't upon us... Just yet, anyway...

biker

14-04-2014, 10:50 PM

Ah, PEB at a dollar. And so the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient continues.

MAC

14-04-2014, 10:56 PM

Ah, PEB at a dollar. And so the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient continues.

You’re on to it Biker;

Quite often you hear TA’s say that technical analysis doesn’t predict the future, I’ve heard that on this forum, and this thread actually a few times too.

When a correction comes along they get all stressed because they can’t see beyond the immediate dip and they start with all the doomsday prophecies, whereas a little FA may probably allow them to presume that US markets are in mid cycle. Either that, or they are usually out of the market during a dip and like to take a sadistic opportunity to scare the kid’s and to stock knock.

I’m sure long term investor’s in PEB, Hancock’s, Barney et al, and the larger percentage holders have seen more than one or two dips come and go, the important thing to remember is that these sort of dips and trader behaviours, although quite interesting to watch, are transitory.

Either be an investor and hold until the fundamentals alter, or trade, buy low, sell high.

Selling at this point in a dip makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever, taking what’s probably the best opportunity this year to enter does though.

robbo24

14-04-2014, 11:15 PM

PEB could save money for US insurers and the government.

A bit of economic fear mongering might do ok for PEB in their sales pitch...

psychic

15-04-2014, 06:01 AM

Nasdaq back above 4,000 as tech plays rally

:)

Minerbarejet

15-04-2014, 06:44 AM

Nasdaq back above 4,000 as tech plays rally

:)No doubt someone will find something wrong with that.:)

couta1

15-04-2014, 06:51 AM

[QUOTE=Minerbarejet;4744No doubt someone will find something wrong with that.:)[/QUOTE]
The Naysayers will they cant help themselves,as the US market commentary said things got a bit oversold now aint that an understatement:cool:

psychic

15-04-2014, 07:08 AM

Well, that party was brief. Back to 4000 treading water with an hour to go..

Edit closed 4022, so up .57% for the day.

klid

15-04-2014, 08:16 AM

Found this interesting about biotech sector
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-11/the-value-angle-to-biotech-stocks.html

mobile link sorry im on the train.

Hoop

15-04-2014, 08:32 AM

Good finish on NASDQ Candlestick tails suggest a small rally now....so far a 10% bull market correction (an average one), so far.....4000 was the bull/bear support so it holding was very good news.

Still a long way for NASDQ to stop the downtrend it has to be over 4200...Be careful as this rally could the B wave (A first drop C second drop) within an ongoing correction.

Good relief day or two coming up for PEB ...time to look for buy signals to enter...PEB bottoming out around the 100c mark helps make the chart look less scary it now serves as a support level

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/aaaa.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/aaaa.png.html)

Balance

15-04-2014, 08:34 AM

Good finish on NASDQ Candlestick tails suggest a small rally now....so far a 10% bull market correction an average one, so far.....4000 was the bull/bear support so it holding was very good news.

Still a long way for NASDQ to stop the downtrend it has to be over 4200...Becareful as this could the B wave (A first drop C second drop) within the correction.

Good relief day or two coming up for PEB ...time to look for buy signals to enter.

Suggest you look for another 3m shares sold down - the big seller looks hell bent on getting out.

nextbigthing

15-04-2014, 08:36 AM

"Sell sell sell, buy buy buy"....

I think some of the posters on here are brokers drumming up brokerage!

Hoop

15-04-2014, 08:45 AM

"Sell sell sell, buy buy buy"....

I think some of the posters on here are brokers drumming up brokerage!

No conspiracy theory here....just reading the charts and relaying the results on to this thread
I did tell you some posts back that PEB investor behaviour resembled a mental institution...
Therefore expect emotional volatility

MAC

15-04-2014, 08:49 AM

and it will all be green tommoro as well and then the doomdayers will crap their pants and think they have missed some bargains.

Bizarre isn’t it, probably chase it all the way up to $2, Freud would love it!

5721

nextbigthing

15-04-2014, 08:54 AM

No conspiracy theory here....just reading the charts and relaying the results on to this thread
I did tell you some posts back that PEB investor behaviour resembled a mental institution...
Therefore expect emotional volatility

Sorry Hoop bad timing, general thread comment not aimed at you. Carry on the good work, it's good to see someone with the balls to post what they think will happen and why ahead of it actually happening so we can ponder it ourselves.

Hoop

15-04-2014, 08:57 AM

Suggest you look for another 3m shares sold down - the big seller looks hell bent on getting out.

Yes that should be taken seriously I cant see when that was or is it on overnight....if so that big seller should show up as a negative on the money flow indicators such as OBV , Chalkin (CMF) ..will check it out..

skid

15-04-2014, 08:57 AM

Moosie did you have to post that, - do we have to watch out for the FTSE as well now? Whats next, Brazil, Russia, Canada, Mozambique?

looks like the Nasdaq is your friend today :) Not so bad when its going in your direction eh?:)

skid

15-04-2014, 09:05 AM

No doubt someone will find something wrong with that.:)

Has it ever occurred to you that rather than delight in watching some crash and burn, the real intention of those expressing caution is to keep others from doing the same?

Its been a hard 4-5days but should be a good day for you and others:)

skid

15-04-2014, 09:11 AM

Yes that should be taken seriously I cant see when that was or is it on overnight....if so that big seller should show up as a negative on the money flow indicators such as OBV , Chalkin (CMF) ..will check it out..

Im not very good at charts--Id be interested to know what in your opinion would constitute an uptrend

winner69

15-04-2014, 09:45 AM

They say market 'corrections' are healthy. I agree because they bring normality back to market (unless a market correction is just the first stage of a total market collapse)

So I reckon PEB shareprice is about where it should be at the moment - maybe just a little underpriced.

From here anybody buying at 100 to 110 can expect to make a 12%-15% pa return on their investment providing PEB perform to the assumptions I outlined the ptehr day in another post. If you want to run with MACs assumptions and valuation the long term returns will be closer to 25% pa.

For me my PEB shares have cost me nothing so future returns are all profit. However the past has gone and good discipline is to view this as a new investment with those expected returns. However they will go out with the bath water if the prices falls below X, why give too much back to the market

Picture shows how I see PEB

croesus

15-04-2014, 09:53 AM

golden city

15-04-2014, 09:55 AM

looks very good., with big backups

Hoop

15-04-2014, 10:17 AM

Im not very good at charts--Id be interested to know what in your opinion would constitute an uptrend

Hi Skid..A good uptrend is a higher highs followed by a higher lows..A trend line is confirmed with 3 touchesHave a read up Incredible charts and Stockchart websites both have very good easy to read educational webpagesto get started.

Leftfield

15-04-2014, 10:24 AM

They say market 'corrections' are healthy. I agree because they bring normality back to market (unless a market correction is just the first stage of a total market collapse)
Picture shows how I see PEB

I agree Winner, thanks for the helpful chart it provides a timely perspective.... Disc; long term holder and still holding.

skid

15-04-2014, 10:31 AM

skid

15-04-2014, 10:31 AM

Hi Skid..A good uptrend is a higher highs followed by a higher lows..A trend line is confirmed with 3 touchesHave a read up Incredible charts and Stockchart websites both have very good easy to read educational webpagesto get started.

Thanx Hoop

croesus

15-04-2014, 10:32 AM

She's rolling... next we will get some of yesterdays picnickers jumping in... this stock is like a Shakespearian play.. priceless

Bobcat.

15-04-2014, 10:33 AM

Could be a good bounce shortly.... wouldn't be at all surprised to see PEB race to over 125c and settle at 120c...

Just a gut feeling, a announcement at 11 am would be great.

disc a buyer and a seller

There's confirmed resistance at 120c. If as you say Croesus it breaks through that on first attempt, it would be very bullish and probably only do so off a positive announcement. Until we get one, a more likely scenario is a lower high around 115c. The NASDAQ Biotech sector has held to last Friday's support level of 2250 but has not yet bounced back to close higher. Tonight's trading for that sector will be more definitive. Trading to it.

croesus

15-04-2014, 10:34 AM

Meant panic ers...

skid

15-04-2014, 10:49 AM

Could be a good bounce shortly.... wouldn't be at all surprised to see PEB race to over 125c and settle at 120c...

Just a gut feeling, a announcement at 11 am would be great.

disc a buyer and a seller

I think anticipating a bounce like that may be using the ''pre correction'' line of thinking that perhaps created the over valuing in the first place unless your anticipated announcement did come to pass.
Your talking a 25% rise
We saw what happened when there was a small rise for a day in the Nasdaq last week.-might be good to tread carefully for a while-Good luck just the same
Ill be watching from the sidelines

Balance

15-04-2014, 10:54 AM

Don't get sucked in, guys - stay at $1.00 or $1.01 if you are keen on topping up.

Sellers still around - just watching one another and seeing if each will sell lower.

Hoop

15-04-2014, 10:58 AM

Thanx Hoop

Another very good site I overlooked and was reminded about it a few minutes ago.

...KW's thread here on Sharetrader.............Using TA to time Entries and Exits (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits)

skid

15-04-2014, 10:58 AM

What happened last week is sellers used the rise to bail on the Nasdaq so the above would be good advice

Copper

15-04-2014, 11:01 AM

Don't get sucked in, guys - stay at $1.00 or $1.01 if you are keen on topping up.

Sellers still around - just watching one another and seeing if each will sell lower.
If enough buyers quote at $1 or $1.01 then that may be the opportunity for one of the sellers to let fly.They won't have any qualms just the numbers are relevant.IMHO.

MAC

15-04-2014, 12:46 PM

Lunch time already, no 11am announcement, didn’t get to $2, something must have gone terribly wrong ?

5723

Balance

15-04-2014, 01:10 PM

If enough buyers quote at $1 or $1.01 then that may be the opportunity for one of the sellers to let fly.They won't have any qualms just the numbers are relevant.IMHO.

Exactly - why pay up when they are around?

Minerbarejet

15-04-2014, 01:29 PM

Lunch time already, no 11am announcement, didn’t get to $2, something must have gone terribly wrong ?

5723I smell a rat.:)

Bobcat.

15-04-2014, 02:57 PM

Larger parcels have just been bought 106 through 109. Looks like the bigger buyers are now getting interested once again.

Already we have seen today (compared to yesterday) a higher low and a higher high.

Now is not the time to sell.

golden city

15-04-2014, 03:12 PM

it is cracking up

Bobcat.

15-04-2014, 03:19 PM

Holding you to that tomorrow if ^NBI tanks!

If you want to put a stop loss in the mid 90's, Moosie, and it drops that low tomorrow then I'll buy them from you.

skid

15-04-2014, 04:57 PM

Holding you to that tomorrow if ^NBI tanks!

But that is not now -that is then:)

If I was holding I would probably stay put for now-but I wouldnt be buying and would be following developments closely(maybe a stop loss at around 98 just in case of more bad news)

Goldstein

15-04-2014, 06:16 PM

Haven't been holding PEB since $1.68 :)

I got rid of mine at $1.67. I've been thinking about buying strategies and wondering whether 20% of what I intend to spend should be used to buy at 100, 90, 80, 70, 60c (just random numbers). I.e., pick a likely bottom and average down to it. Anybody have any other re-entry strategies? I must say Roadrunner's was quite alarming. Bugger me I'd lose sleep doing that and I probably wouldn't be able to function at work.

Minerbarejet

15-04-2014, 06:28 PM

Meant panic ers...
I much prefer picnickers - maybe its a teddy bear market. :)

couta1

15-04-2014, 06:51 PM

I got rid of mine at $1.67. I've been thinking about buying strategies and wondering whether 20% of what I intend to spend should be used to buy at 100, 90, 80, 70, 60c (just random numbers). I.e., pick a likely bottom and average down to it. Anybody have any other re-entry strategies? I must say Roadrunner's was quite alarming. Bugger me I'd lose sleep doing that and I probably wouldn't be able to function at work.
Mate in that case if you were me you wouldn't even be getting out of bed let alone worrying about functioning at work,just as well I'm an ex sheep shearer and marathon runner so I know all about pain and torture in its various forms:scared:

Goldstein

15-04-2014, 07:13 PM

Good on ya Couta. I admire your attitude. I think you posted previously you had a 2:24 - that is seriously good. I'm thinking of doing the Auckland this year.

About PEB, my strategy on this stuff is not to worry if I miss the boat due to a sharp rise, but there's probably a 2-bagger within 6 months if you can time the thing right.

MAC

15-04-2014, 09:15 PM

As a more meaningful distraction from the whimsical notions of the more pliable traders whom think Pacific Edge should take a dip just because some biotech stocks way over there in North America may happen to be “frothy”.

The latest 2014 cancer statistics have been published by Jemal and Segal, these are the folk whom Pacific Edge referenced when working up their market research and analysis during the 2011 capital raising.

The increase in poor unfortunates, the respectful market to you and I, seems to be increasing at around about 3% per annum at present.

New Cases
Deaths

2013
72570
15210

2014
74690
15580

Increase
2.9%
2.4%

http://www.deseretnews.com/media/pdf/1280085.pdf (http://www.deseretnews.com/media/pdf/1280085.pdf)

In the context of the Pacific Edge goal of achieving a 10% market share by HY18, this data suggests that the market itself may well increase by 3 x 5 = 15% during the roll out of Pacific Edge’s five year strategic plan in achieving $100M in revenues.

In their 2011 analysis Pacific Edge used 2008 data at 68,800 new cases per annum to derive a 10% market share at US$100M in revenues.

Extrapolating at this 3% rate of growth for 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 we should now expect around 84,000 new cases in 2018.

Thus 10% market share at HY18 should actually be around (84,000 / 68,800) x US$100M = US$122M in annual revenues.

croesus

15-04-2014, 09:29 PM

croesus

15-04-2014, 09:33 PM

Note that colon cancer has more new cases per year and is a bigger killer than bladder cancer. Colorectal launch isn't that far away...

That's great news after reading that article by Bob Jones in the Herald a couple of weeks ago, ive been considering chucking in 2 k for a colostocomy... presuming PEB can do the test for a Fifth of that.

blackcap

15-04-2014, 09:44 PM

Good on ya Couta. I admire your attitude. I think you posted previously you had a 2:24 - that is seriously good. I'm thinking of doing the Auckland this year.

2.24 is like seriously very good, in fact that is almost world class. Don't the women winners run somewhere around that mark? I struggle to do a 1.45 half marathon. Good on ya couta.

croesus

15-04-2014, 09:47 PM

Your a lucky young moose ( just keep away from deer cullers ) I would happily give everything material away, to know what I know now an be 27 again...a set of clothes and $100 in my pocket would be more then enough.

Make the most of it.

Chin

couta1

15-04-2014, 10:43 PM

I'm 27 and consider running that far craziness (I am a jogger btw). You old people and the silly things you do to forget about us young people and thetrouble we cause...
Don't worry Moosie I was 30 when I did that time,you've still got 3 years to go,congrats to all you peoples still running half and full marathons,remember its finishing and doing your best that really counts no matter what time you end up with. I've got a soft spot for PEB having had a mother die from bladder and stomach cancer at the age of 46, so there's more benefit than just profit when investing in this company

nextbigthing

15-04-2014, 11:02 PM

....There's more benefit than just profit when investing in this company....

Absolutely right Couta.

There has been a bit of chat on other threads recently about refusing to invest in breweries etc for ethical reasons. PEB has to be the opposite of that.

Bobcat.

15-04-2014, 11:25 PM

Don't worry Moosie I was 30 when I did that time,you've still got 3 years to go,congrats to all you peoples still running half and full marathons,remember its finishing and doing your best that really counts no matter what time you end up with. I've got a soft spot for PEB having had a mother die from bladder and stomach cancer at the age of 46, so there's more benefit than just profit when investing in this company

You'll be buying more tomorrow then Couta (?) Onward and upward.

BC

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 07:44 AM

Check out Findata, they seem to be up with the play

robbo24

16-04-2014, 08:27 AM

What a comeback on the ^NBI last night, wow! Down around 5% and now closing up 1%. That is a major bullish sign that the bottom may be in as US data continues to improve...

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ENBI

Hammer time

robbo24

16-04-2014, 08:38 AM

You going to wear the pants or am I?

Too late I'm already dancing around work

skid

16-04-2014, 08:44 AM

I'm 27 and consider running that far craziness (I am a jogger btw). You old people and the silly things you do to forget about us young people and thetrouble we cause...

If you lose everything on the share market I may be interested in some of your organs--meet me at my secret underground laboratory:):)

nextbigthing

16-04-2014, 08:53 AM

You going to wear the pants or am I?

Don't be silly Moosie. Your partner wears them.

skid

16-04-2014, 09:09 AM

As a more meaningful distraction from the whimsical notions of the more pliable traders whom think Pacific Edge should take a dip just because some biotech stocks way over there in North America may happen to be “frothy”

Mac-
Nothing wrong with doing as much research as possible on the company---but you seem to have blinkers on when it comes to the outside markets.
The Nasdaq tanked--PEB tanked
The nasdaq bounced(a bit)-PEB bounced a bit what more evidence do you need?
We're not making up the rules here ,just observing ---

The market seems to be in limbo ATM but for now the carnage has stopped so thats a good thing. (when things are more neutral in the outside markets then whats going on with the company itself becomes more the issue)

But if you think its all rubbish--wait for a rally or another tank and watch what happens to PEB.

In the GFC I watched almost all shares(good and bad) come crashing down.--Its like playing a game with a group of people on a ship--you can be winning or losing the game but if the ship hits an iceberg you had better head for the lifeboats.
It pays to keep tabs on the outside markets for any ''Extremes'' that come along.

skid

16-04-2014, 09:17 AM

Correction NBI up .9% more than just limbo --should be good day.

MAC

16-04-2014, 09:27 AM

As a more meaningful distraction from the whimsical notions of the more pliable traders whom think Pacific Edge should take a dip just because some biotech stocks way over there in North America may happen to be “frothy”

Mac-
Nothing wrong with doing as much research as possible on the company---but you seem to have blinkers on when it comes to the outside markets.
The Nasdaq tanked--PEB tanked
The nasdaq bounced(a bit)-PEB bounced a bit what more evidence do you need?
We're not making up the rules here ,just observing ---

The market seems to be in limbo ATM but for now the carnage has stopped so thats a good thing. (when things are more neutral in the outside markets then whats going on with the company itself becomes more the issue)

But if you think its all rubbish--wait for a rally or another tank and watch what happens to PEB.

In the GFC I watched almost all shares(good and bad) come crashing down.--Its like playing a game with a group of people on a ship--you can be winning or losing the game but if the ship hits an iceberg you had better head for the lifeboats.
It pays to keep tabs on the outside markets for any ''Extremes'' that come along.

Yeah I get all that of course, no harm too in being a behavioural observer of folk who would rather walk down hill just to walk back up again rather than around, it is like watching lab rat's in a maze at times.

golden city

16-04-2014, 09:33 AM

looking good for another day...

Mista_Trix

16-04-2014, 09:48 AM

I do fell sorry for the long term holders of PEB having the thread clogged up with short term trader babble mine included.
It must get quite annoying at times.

It's definitely a learning experience.
The first time you see it happen you think all financial systems everywhere are about to fail and the worlds going to end - based on the chatter ... It's a valuable lesson to be able to pick the noise, but also a good sentiment indicator :)

It plays its part :-S

golden city

16-04-2014, 10:06 AM

very good....nice day

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 10:22 AM

I do fell sorry for the long term holders of PEB having the thread clogged up with short term trader babble mine included.
It must get quite annoying at times.
Nah, dont worry, mate, we all have large bags of salt for taking with postings and for rubbing in wounds.
Mostly groan ups here but thats to be exspected. Gratz on the 1.07 - long term holder now are we?
See the nbi has forced the price of PEB up:)

tosspot

16-04-2014, 10:26 AM

I would be very careful buying into this or Xero now. Think about if you were the ones who started this whole tech/bio sell off we all know its the hedge funds in america. Then why would you continuously dump they will dump, pause for a day maybe a few then dump again to increase there average sell price. I feel there is another wave to come. all im saying is be careful

Bobcat.

16-04-2014, 10:29 AM

Yesterday's 111c top has yet to be broken. It's trying again now. If and when it is busted, it's likely to become new support level with next resistance at 115c (light) then 120c (heavy).

Volume today is so far fairly light. RSI is tracking up and still only 20%. This is no time to sell IMO.

Still holding, and trading accordingly.

BC

skid

16-04-2014, 10:41 AM

You could always pic a spread-make a trailing stoploss-and follow SP up---that way you live to fight another day if another wave down comes.

skid

16-04-2014, 10:48 AM

Wow, Skid, are you telling me that share prices reflect both fundamentals AND sentiment??

Stop the world, I need to get off. This is just too complex :p

Only way to do that is with some rope-a bottle of sleeping pills -or a colt 45:):):)

(Its easy to make jokes when the rats are running the right direction):)

whatsup

16-04-2014, 11:13 AM

Trucking on up nicely today, $1.20 here we come ?

klid

16-04-2014, 11:38 AM

Far out, what if the NBI didn't come back before the close!!!

Balance

16-04-2014, 11:44 AM

All good. Doomsday merchants come out when a stock or the market is dropping, and bulls come out when a stock or the market is climbing - such is the nature of things.

Why? Because their voices will otherwise be drowned out by the trend.

As a very successful fund manager with CBA said to me once, he does not bother with consensus opinions unless he is trading. He always looks for the negative comments when a stock is running hot, and the positive comments when a stock is dropping. Takes guts and fortitude.

As expected.

Bobcat.

16-04-2014, 11:57 AM

Be careful quoting yourself, Balance. Others might do the same...

Don't get sucked in, guys - stay at $1.00 or $1.01 if you are keen on topping up.

Sellers still around - just watching one another and seeing if each will sell lower.

Not as expected. When you posted this, the sp was bouncing off 103/104 and if people had taken your advice then they would have missed the opportunity to gain 10% in two days. I had a similar experience with SNK when having just purchased at 9.5c I saw your doomsday posts claiming superior knowledge about the big boys about to sell more. It influenced my decision to sell out, a day before it raced up to 12c. Opportunity cost of taking your post seriously = $2,000 in less than a week.

With PEB, I bought in at $1 then saw your post and ignored it. I'm up 14% as a result. No hard feelings but please be careful not to scare people off trades on the basis of any dubious 'superior' broker insight.

BC

Balance

16-04-2014, 11:59 AM

Be careful quoting yourself, Balance. Others might do the same...

Not as expected. When you posted this, the sp was bouncing off 103/104 and if people had taken your advice then they would have missed the opportunity to gain 10% in two days. I had a similar experience with SNK when having just purchased at 9.5c I saw your doomsday posts claiming superior knowledge about the big boys about to sell more. It influenced my decision to sell out, a day before it raced up to 12c. Opportunity cost of taking your post seriously = $2,000 in less than a week.

With PEB, I bought in at $1 then saw your post and ignored it. I'm up 14% as a result. No hard feelings but please be careful not to scare people off trades on the basis of any dubious 'superior' broker insight.

BC

No problem, Bobcat.

We are here to exchange perspectives, ideas and information - none of us claim to be always right.

Well, there is one or two like that - haha.

Whipmoney

16-04-2014, 12:15 PM

Clownish, to be succinct ;)

Careful moosie..

robbo24

16-04-2014, 12:30 PM

Who is this big seller trying to pop the stops!

Bobcat.

16-04-2014, 12:37 PM

115c was always going to provide some resistance. As soon as there were bidders at 115, and a single trade went though at 116, the selling began. 115 was last Wednesday's support base which last Friday became the new resistance (after the sp was driven down from 120 and straight through 115). That resistance was tested Friday and has been confirmed today.

I suspect we will not see the sp rise above 115 again today but, unless the NBI tanks tonight, will IMO be busted tomorrow on its way through to 120 which is where I'm expecting more aggressive resistance.

Trading to it, with an offer currently sitting at 119c.

Meanwhile, support now coming in at 111c (previous resistance now turned support) again after a single trade went through at 110c.

BC

geo

16-04-2014, 12:53 PM

whatsup

16-04-2014, 01:32 PM

So just who were the buyers this morning from $1.09 up to $1.16 surely not the same person who dumped all the way down from $1.16 down to $1.10 in such a hurry.

skid

16-04-2014, 02:02 PM

Be careful quoting yourself, Balance. Others might do the same...

Not as expected. When you posted this, the sp was bouncing off 103/104 and if people had taken your advice then they would have missed the opportunity to gain 10% in two days. I had a similar experience with SNK when having just purchased at 9.5c I saw your doomsday posts claiming superior knowledge about the big boys about to sell more. It influenced my decision to sell out, a day before it raced up to 12c. Opportunity cost of taking your post seriously = $2,000 in less than a week.

With PEB, I bought in at $1 then saw your post and ignored it. I'm up 14% as a result. No hard feelings but please be careful not to scare people off trades on the basis of any dubious 'superior' broker insight.

BC

OK Im going to go against the trend here and remind all that at that time it was VERY uncertain what the markets were going to do--and we are not out of the proverbial woods yet IMO--I feel it could have gone either way.
Alot of traders will sell on a rise to get out after a root like we had.

Last night was more of a confirmation,but it was not a real rally.

If I was holding ,I would be relieved--but not to Cheeky

If its more of the same at weeks end(thurs) maybe then get out the champaigne

skid

16-04-2014, 02:14 PM

No reflection on you BC,just my 2 cents--You set a stop loss and stuck to it and that is commendable, and so far you are on the money--credit where credit is due :)

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 02:19 PM

Alot of traders will sell on a rise to get out after a root like we had
Speak for yourself - damn sure I didnt get one:)

Bobcat.

16-04-2014, 02:38 PM

Speak for yourself - damn sure I didnt get one:)

Time to find a good wife, Miner. She might cook for you as well.

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 02:44 PM

Time to find a good wife, Miner. She might cook for you as well.
We wont go any further with this.:)

Bobcat.

16-04-2014, 03:09 PM

PSAR says buy if $1.20 is cracked.

I usually use Parabolic SAR for selling only (i.e. as an upward trend starts to reverse) Do you have a graph?

Bobcat.

16-04-2014, 03:27 PM

Stuff charts are OK too. Click on Tech Controls to get PSAR, RSI, MACD, Scholastic, OBV, etc

http://www.stuff.co.nz/market/stock/peb/charts

Mista_Trix

16-04-2014, 03:30 PM

Stuff charts are OK too. Click on Tech Controls to get PSAR, RSI, MACD, Scholastic, OBV, etc

http://www.stuff.co.nz/market/stock/peb/charts

The only downside though is that they don't seem to update till the following morning - good tech controls though.
The refresh option works well if you want to eyeball the change as it occurs day to day, Yahoo Finance reloads the whole page, so watching for movement can be a little less obvious.

skid

16-04-2014, 03:56 PM

Speak for yourself - damn sure I didnt get one:)

maybe because you didnt get the rise--need some Viagra (sorry ,couldnt resist):)

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 04:30 PM

maybe because you didnt get the rise--need some Viagra (sorry ,couldnt resist):)
Wont be going into this either:lol:

MAC

16-04-2014, 06:19 PM

Ok lab rats, is this enough to float your wee boats ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2s3VSI02yg

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 06:34 PM

Mac, that is priceless. Lol lol lol x 25

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 08:38 PM

China data out, better than forecast. Might have seen a bottom here. Nice little correction :)You into Shakespeare, Moosie?

Balance

16-04-2014, 09:05 PM

You into Shakespeare, Moosie?

Hell of a question to ask of a Moose!

Roadrunner

16-04-2014, 09:07 PM

Sold out today but best of luck to all holders and I`ve no doubt I`ll be back in further down the track :)

golden city

16-04-2014, 09:16 PM

should be another good day tomorrow., looking for 1.20 plus

Bobcat.

16-04-2014, 09:28 PM

If NASDAQ rises, and futures are up 20 points as I write this, then late tomorrow morning will be a good time to sell IMO...unless your not trading that is, in which case a quick 20% gain in three days may not be something your tempted to sell against.

Remember that its 120c resistance is yet to be busted, and we still have uncertainty around their sales report due next month.

BC

Goldstein

16-04-2014, 09:37 PM

Good on ya Roadrunner. I don't think I could do it that way. I'd be a wreck.

couta1

16-04-2014, 09:43 PM

Sold out today but best of luck to all holders and I`ve no doubt I`ll be back in further down the track :)
Around 10 k profit aye Roadrunner,good going:cool:

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 10:22 PM

Hell of a question to ask of a Moose!
Well he did say bottom!

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 10:26 PM

Bobcat.

16-04-2014, 10:40 PM

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 11:00 PM

Traders don't tend to worry much about uncertainty, but investors do, and the bigger ones drive price and momentum. Sales uncertainty will IMO soon cap PEB's current short-term upward momentum. It's just a matter of when.

BC
It has already ,old bean, otherwise we would be sitting at 2.00 and you probably not holding any.
Must say I admire your picking the bottom - trust you do as well at the top
Have a nice day
May your god be with you

janner

16-04-2014, 11:03 PM

Well he did say bottom!

He may be dreaming.. but it is a long way before we have another Mid Summer..

youngatheart

16-04-2014, 11:08 PM

Most definitely a midsummer nights dream..run...:eek2:

janner

16-04-2014, 11:12 PM

Or will it be the winter of our discontent?

To be .. or . Not to be !!.. That is the question !!

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 11:20 PM

I wish we could get to the bottom of all this

Bobcat.

16-04-2014, 11:27 PM

To be .. or . Not to be !!.. That is the question !!

Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous falling stock prices,
Or to average down against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing, either end them or by throwing good money after bad, further reduce one's wealth.

...that is the question.

Minerbarejet

16-04-2014, 11:30 PM

I will be a moose thank you very much! Apparently winner is wearing the hammer pants and BC is looking for a buck and two dimes. Don't know if Miner has made his bed yet or not. MAC is probably shaking his fist at us young'uns to get off his property and take our dogs with fleas with us. Sparky keeps offering up ghost chips but I think I'm the only one who can hear him (questionable sanity much?).
An old cowpoke went riding out
One dark and windy day
Upon a ridge he rested as he went along his way
When all at once a mighty herd of redeyed cows he saw
Plowin through the ragid skies and up a cloudy draw
Yippee I O Yippee IA
Ghost Riders in disguise

Think you are on Inuit, Moosie
Beds made, better climb Inuit
Nigh Tall
Mynah

SirPrize

17-04-2014, 07:12 AM

Oh poem time is it? I got one.

I froze your tears, and made a dagger
And stabbed it in my cock, forever
It stays there like Excalibur
Are you my Xero?
Say you are.

robbo24

17-04-2014, 08:40 AM

Oh poem time is it? I got one.

I froze your tears, and made a dagger
And stabbed it in my cock, forever
It stays there like Excalibur
Are you my Xero?
Say you are.

Written at 7.12am.... Wow.

PlatnuM195

17-04-2014, 08:42 AM

NBI up, NASDAQ up, good news from the US Fed. Should be a good run today if PEB is still following market trends.

skid

17-04-2014, 08:49 AM

Which sounds like about where it should be until anouncements-unless there are enough around with bad memories--emphasis is back onto the company,but for those who are now used to checking the US markets each morning its not a bad habit.

AndyLP

17-04-2014, 08:53 AM

Mista_Trix

17-04-2014, 09:23 AM

PSAR says buy if $1.20 is cracked. (Good call BC!). Nice bounce off $1.00 on very oversold levels outside bollinger bands. Barring another tanking of US indexes, buy signals should start firing soon.

Only 2 of the last 5 of the moves from PSAR (since the sky-rocket) have accurately predicted an upswing though, the rest have misfired on a sideways and down.
Mind you MACD, OBV and RSI also looking good.

skid

17-04-2014, 09:27 AM

Ive been trying to get to the bottom of what has caused the Biotec correction in the first place--I think the biggest cause of the revaluation
is the fear that Obamacare will put a cap on some of the healthcare sector prices.
Apparently a large company Gilead sciences created a new hepatitis c drug that was good but perceived to be ridiculously overpriced so the Gov. decided to investigate which on top of the basic fear about Obamacare started the slide.
Your article supports the Obamacare thing although as you say ,it may be good for PEB as a company (as long as it doesnt spook the market in general to much)

SirPrize

17-04-2014, 09:33 AM

Written at 7.12am.... Wow.

Well what can I say... I applied myself.

AndyLP

17-04-2014, 09:35 AM

Yeah that's an interesting point skid.
Ideally I'd like to see a flow of investment money from those that will struggle to those that might prosper within the new framework.

skid

17-04-2014, 09:43 AM

And of course theres the Janet Yellen factor--I saw an article showing how the Dow went up and down in response to each sentence she said in her address-Sheesh! Could be painful if she has a bad hair day!:)

Bobcat.

17-04-2014, 10:06 AM

I'm out with a tidy profit (praise-G), and happy to leave some there for the rest of ya'.

120 is now providing the anticipated resistance...for now at least. Last night's 1% rise in the NASDAQ has not gone unnoticed.

Onto the next opportunity.

BC

Roberto

17-04-2014, 10:08 AM

Oh poem time is it? I got one.

I froze your tears, and made a dagger
And stabbed it in my cock, forever
It stays there like Excalibur
Are you my Xero?
Say you are.

Classic Brent!

golden city

17-04-2014, 10:27 AM

i am seeing potential crack back to 1.30

youngatheart

17-04-2014, 10:37 AM

I'm guessing that would be BRL then Bobcat ?

Bobcat.

17-04-2014, 10:45 AM

I'm guessing that would be BRL then Bobcat ?

Depends on how it fairs on the asx. Looking for a higher low by end of day.

Best discussed further on the other thread.

Microsloth

17-04-2014, 11:51 AM

I remember someone posted a while back that doctors might not have much personal incentive to work with Pacific Edge if it means a loss in personal revenue for that doctor / practise.

Well this article might offer some easy-to-digest insight as why the reverse may in fact be true, thanks to the Affordable Care Act.

Also, it looks like the switch from the ICD-9 code to the ICD-10 might be what's slowing down the official Medicare announcement.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2145003-market-correction-obamacares-complex-billing-changes-are-creating-new-healthcare-leaders

Might have been me that questioned that, As a shareholder I hope they have made a good level of sales in US, Obamacare reforms do sound positive for PEB

"The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is creating unusually large opportunities for preventive diagnostics."

Insiders selling could just be good share market timing.

Guess we will all know end of May

Thanks for link

Hoop

17-04-2014, 12:41 PM

Still a long way for NASDQ to stop the downtrend it has to be over 4200...Be careful as this rally could the B wave (A first drop C second drop) within an ongoing correction.
Good relief day or two coming up for PEB ...time to look for buy signals to enter...PEB bottoming out around the 100c mark helps make the chart look less scary it now serves as a support level

Fired off very short term buy signals ...then short term buy signals...
Yes that should be taken seriously I cant see when that was or is it on overnight....if so that big seller should show up as a negative on the money flow indicators such as OBV , Chalkin (CMF) ..will check it out..
Can't see any evidence this actually happened (see chart below)

i am seeing potential crack back to 1.30
Maybe but passing 1.20 will be tough...PEB will need more buyers than now to do it

I'm seeing solid resistance at $1.20!
Yes so do I..resistance line at 1.20 and EMA200 at 1.19 both together makes a strong barrier. PEB failing to crack it on its first go helps make that resistance area a little stronger....
Still no medium term buy signals (see chart) but it's getting close....early days yet.

Disc: Due to my postings I elected not to quick trade PEB this time (well done Bobcat)....I thought it best (ethically) to comment it from the sidelines

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB17042014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB17042014.png.html)

Hoop

17-04-2014, 01:29 PM

As I have said before, there is nothing wrong with the market going sideways for a bit. Why does it ALWAYS have to be up or down with these guys? DJI has been treading water for quite awhile now!

As I said perviously ,,listen,,,PEB trading is a acting like its a mental institution........PEB has a history of being a highly volatile trading stock (all over the place like a mad womans ****) and Moosie reckons flat line is an option.........suggest to keep off that clover mate I suspect its fermented

Hoop

17-04-2014, 02:06 PM

In regards to KW's post...

????:confused:

MAC

17-04-2014, 03:01 PM

Well I hope all you traders made a billion dollars, such a life doesn’t always end well though.

It’s still looking like a dream entry point, thanks, from an FA perspective, and a very good entry anywhere up to $1.50 prior to reporting.

The FY14 results may provide some further confidence and it’s possible analysts may raise valuations, if not simply just because the circa $100M revenue goals and associated free cashflows have become another six months closer but through I hope some affirmation of the new product roll out schedule.

This first early sales result is really not important, yes not important. It’s a five year plan for Cxbladder, first US sales were announced in October and toward the end of the reporting period in March we started to see the 2013 capital raising funded sales staff only just start to come on board, they’re still probably in training even now.

Still circa 1,000 to 5,000 sales as a token would be nice, we should expect and hold PEB management to something more in line with guidance though at HY15 reporting in November “tens of thousands of sales”, the Dunedin AGM in August will be interesting this year too.

Hope all of you who missed the 2013 entry get to jump the train this time, welcome aboard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCIZm_vTIjE

Dentie

17-04-2014, 03:11 PM

This first early sales result is really not important, yes not important. It’s a five year plan for Cxbladder, first US sales were announced in October and toward the end of the reporting period in March we started to see the 2013 capital raising funded sales staff only just start to come on board, they’re still probably in training even now.

Still circa 1,000 to 5,000 sales as a token would be nice, we should expect and hold PEB management to something more in line with guidance though at HY15 reporting in November “tens of thousands of sales”, the Dunedin AGM in August will be interesting this year too.

Hi Mac - have appreciated all of your brilliant research over time however you want to be careful about saying the first early sales is not important. Some (not me!) might accuse you of laying the foundations of a bob each way - just in case the sales are low.

I do agree about the reporting in line with guidance later in the year though. As for the AGM - have booked our tickets etc already!

MAC

17-04-2014, 03:23 PM

Hi Mac - have appreciated all of your brilliant research over time however you want to be careful about saying the first early sales is not important. Some (not me!) might accuse you of laying the foundations of a bob each way - just in case the sales are low.

I do agree about the reporting in line with guidance later in the year though. As for the AGM - have booked our tickets etc already!

Look forward to seeing you there Dentie, it does concern me that some on the thread do seem to expect too much beyond what’s physically possible from the get go, I like to try and be realistic perhaps even a bit conservative but you can be absolutley assured I'm in boots and all with Pacific Edge.

Would be better though if some numerical guidance came from Pacific Edge directly, don't you think, rather than the market being left to research and to some extent second guess where they are at.

Should be no excuses now that sales are underway and there is a strategic plan to work to. I guarantee this will come up at question time at the AGM.

skid

17-04-2014, 04:35 PM

Hi MAC, Pacific Edge were on the ground and promoting Cxbladder well before and during the laboratory build; so they did not just start making the urologists aware of the product last year. They also introduced the LUGs (large Urology Groups) to the product by way of the user program, of which two LUGs signed up. They are now (March 31st) 8 months into a 60 month to achieve a $100 Million target so I’m expecting 8-10% (~20,000 tests) otherwise the uptake is far too slow and I would be suspicious of the financial model. If it is only 5,000 I would be very disappointed.

Totally agree Hancocks--Gotta put some dosh in the coffers somehow--At some stage the rubber has to meet the road.
These last months there has been very little to do except speculate.
Its looking like that has been a bit overdone and may well proceed in a more civilized manner after this correction,until some concrete evidence appears (but who knows with this share)
I believe at some point ,with more info to go on,it will (hopefully)settle into slow steady growth.
Those addicted to the firworks may grow impatient at that stage.

baller18

17-04-2014, 04:36 PM

Hi MAC, Pacific Edge were on the ground and promoting Cxbladder well before and during the laboratory build; so they did not just start making the urologists aware of the product last year. They also introduced the LUGs (Large Urology Groups) to the product by way of the user program, of which two LUGs signed up. They are now (March 31st) 8 months into a 60 month to achieve a $100 Million target so I’m expecting 8-10% (~16,000 - 20,000 tests) otherwise the uptake is far too slow and I would be suspicious of the financial model. If it is only 5,000 I would be very disappointed.

Whoa hancocks, you are normally real conservative with your figures, especially sales figures! You have always indicated you have no idea where their sales are heading.
May I ask, how come you are expecting 16,000 now? 16,000 tests through 8 months would get you 500 tests a week?
You really think they are achieving close to 500 tests a week? That is a lot of tests...

Thanks in advance!

skid

17-04-2014, 04:40 PM

Guess the answer lies in the capabilities of 1-the lab and 2-the sales staff

Schrodinger

17-04-2014, 04:57 PM

This stock has a market cap to revenue ratio of more than 1000 think about that

baller18

17-04-2014, 05:53 PM

Hence my opinion, that if they have not sold 16,000 - to 20,000 then the financial model is flawed.
Hey Hancocks, thanks heaps for your posts again.
Then wouldn't you have been concerned from the last report when they only had like three sales? If PEB commenced sales in mid july...
Shouldn't the last report had something more like 1000 sales to back up their financial model?

MAC

17-04-2014, 06:07 PM

Mac, did you really just say the first sales report is not important? How would you justify a valuation like the current mcap with say, 100 sales HY in the current climate of revaluating growth stocks worldwide?

That comment doesn't stack up one bit to me! This is a company and its not differebt this time!

A bit of FA is good for you, it lowers the stress levels.

If you run sensitivity analysis on your DCF like I do prior to the announcements you will find that any result between 1,000 and 5,000 sales makes no meaningful difference at all to the valuation of the stock. This is because the discounted cashflows of the $100M level revenues brought forward dwarfs the anticipated FY14 result. Hence it's not really that important within the big picture, increasingly though this will change going forward through HY15 reporting and beyond.

It's a market of stocks and stock picking pays off, the overall sector may routinely oscillate above and below fundamental value, but for a long term investor that matters little, it's but a distraction and an opportunity to have a smile at trader behaviours.

Some think the goal of $100M in revenues in five years (or 10% market share) is a ambitious, others like myself perhaps think it may be a little conservative in a market that's growing 3% per annum.

But, we have to value a company by some logical means and most including myself run valuations on the long term goals and any guidance provided directly by the company.

Snow Leopard

17-04-2014, 06:11 PM

I especially liked this line in the update:

"PEDUSA has set an ambitious sales target for its start-up year in 2013 which it expects to meet"

does that actually mean:

"PEDUSA has set an ambitious sales target for its start-up year in 2013 and we think they don't have a snowballs chance in hell of getting near".

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[I once worked for a company where the sales target was set by adding up how many units each salesman said he would sell in the next year. They never came close.]

Comment on the 13-Jun-2013 Investor Presentation: They said they would sell a lot.

You can ignore the Tiger sarcasm (at your peril) if you wish.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

psychic

17-04-2014, 06:14 PM

Hey Hancocks, thanks heaps for your posts again.
Then wouldn't you have been concerned from the last report when they only had like three sales? If PEB commenced sales in mid july...
Shouldn't the last report had something more like 1000 sales to back up their financial model?

They started the Sales push July, the report was Sept 30. We are not selling kebabs here - there will be a long lead time so we may as well suck it up and wait.

MAC

17-04-2014, 06:15 PM

Hi MAC, Pacific Edge were on the ground and promoting Cxbladder well before and during the laboratory build; so they did not just start making the urologists aware of the product last year. They also introduced the LUGs (Large Urology Groups) to the product by way of the user program, of which two LUGs signed up. They are now (March 31st) 8 months into a 60 month to achieve a $100 Million target so I’m expecting 8-10% (~16,000 - 20,000 tests) otherwise the uptake is far too slow and I would be suspicious of the financial model. If it is only 5,000 I would be very disappointed.

Well ok, that provides us all with a range 1,000 through 20,000. And so, thus it would seem there is indeed something to be said for companies that issue numerical guidance.

I’d like very much to be proven wrong actually, but I just don’t think enough, if any, of the new sales staff made it onto the ground prior to the end of the reporting period.

I take your point Hancock’s about the user programmes probably rolling straight over into ongoing sales contracts or even widening out across the associated HMO organisations, and if I recall there were around 2,000 tests performed within the US user programmes last year.

I need to brood on this matter a little more.

psychic

17-04-2014, 06:16 PM

Sorry, had not seen Hancocks repsonse.

benjitara

17-04-2014, 06:22 PM

MAC

17-04-2014, 07:10 PM

I simply don't expect anything like 16000 tests at this point in time and I wouldn't be selling if they only had a few hundred on the board. PEB still haven't established their absolute market in the USA yet so how we can make predictions on their projections given they haven't put the biggest relationships in place yet I'll never know. I'd like to see a couple of thousand tests done maybe, but I'm not worried about tests, I'm more interested in having a viable market at the moment.

I guess what we are all chit chatting about is the very front end tip of an exponential curve. It's like dragging a short rope behind one and trying to estimate all the little twitches at its end.

The key though as investors is to keep doing the homework, analysis, work up a solid model and hold to it as long as the fundamentals remain positive. Traders and their obsessive wee nasdaq blips come and go like the seasons, but the shareprice gravitates to fundamental valuation, probably with increasingly with less volatility for PEB as time goes by and profitability and sales grow.

Snow Leopard

17-04-2014, 08:25 PM

...
(a) A reason for the delays with payments hitting the books. (didn’t show in the report)

(b) That the LUGs (Large Urological Groups) migrated from the User Program to paying customers. (several hundred urologists)

(c) That sales have been made by PEDUSA.
...

PEDUSA (& Others) is 100% owned by Pacific Edge and thus the report is a consolidation of the activity of all the parts of the Group.

I would expect that every test sold in the period by any part of the Group to an external customer appears in the revenue line and and as a cash (if paid) or trade receivable (if not yet paid) asset.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

baller18

17-04-2014, 08:36 PM

First commerical sales was achieved in oct. Last report was to the end of sep.

MAC

17-04-2014, 08:57 PM

It’s the American health system so nothing is simple, but the Urologists don’t directly pay for the tests. I like this process though as it lowers any barriers for Urologists to happily test away to their medical satisfaction.

Essentially, PEDusa make a claim to the insurer directly, then the patient gets to pay any balance directly to PEDusa once the insurance claim is processed.

Seems like at least a couple of accounting cycles to me ?

“A patient may receive an Explanation of Benefits (EOB) statement from their insurance provider. This is not a bill. Patients should review the EOB statement but should not pay the amount listed. Once a Cxbladder claim is processed through insurance, Pacific Edge will send a final billing statement to the patient. The Pacific Edge billing statement will detail all charges for the Cxbladder test; the amount(s) paid by insurance; any applicable co-pay/co-insurance and/or deductible; as well as the patient responsibility amount payable to Pacific Edge. Patients are encouraged to contact Pacific Edge’s billing department when the billing statement is received, as they may qualify for patient financial assistance”.

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/billing-policy/

robbo24

17-04-2014, 08:58 PM

First commerical sales was achieved in oct. Last report was to the end of sep.

That's right baller18 because CxBladder® is already on market and generating revenue (http://www.cellmid.com.au/content_common/pg-cancer-treatment-and-detection.seo).

MAC

17-04-2014, 11:24 PM

Goldman Sachs make those November "tens of thousands of sales" look even rosier too.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101590873

skid

18-04-2014, 09:05 AM

skid

18-04-2014, 09:14 AM

Goldman Sachs make those November "tens of thousands of sales" look even rosier too.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101590873

That would be a nice little boost for our exporters,PEB and Xero included--but far more important for our biggest export-Dairy,which have suffered a noticeable drop in milk prices (earnings) of late

robbo24

18-04-2014, 09:52 AM

That would be a nice little boost for our exporters,PEB and Xero included--but far more important for our biggest export-Dairy,which have suffered a noticeable drop in milk prices (earnings) of late

Dairy auctions are in USD.

skid

18-04-2014, 10:02 AM

But sooner or later it comes back to Fontera or the farmer in $KIWI(less of them for those $US)

robbo24

18-04-2014, 10:56 AM

But sooner or later it comes back to Fontera or the farmer in $KIWI(less of them for those $US)

Indeed, but if we're talking about a strengthening of the USD rather than a weakening of the NZD in isolation, then the number of USD coming back to Fonterra in $KIWI is less...

MAC

18-04-2014, 11:45 AM

I’ve been sleeping on it Hancock’s, whether they report 1,000 or 20,000 tests in five week’s time, it is just noise, a brush stroke in the big picture of that five year plan and that 4,000 test per week rated lab.

They had some staff on the ground in the US last year, a total of six PEDusa staff inc management and lab tech’s, and the October 2013 capital raising funds were aimed at accelerating sales and rolling out sales staff across the 19 territories.

We saw linkedin adverts go out just within the reporting period to 31 March, but IMO I don’t think they would have had a chance to contribute at all yet, probably still sitting in class at the back of the lab learning about genomes.

Agree that some sales will probably come from a rollover of last year’s US user programmes, from within selected HMO’s, but I still don’t think we will see 20,000.

I’m sticking with my interpretation of the guidance that “tens of thousands of sales” will come within the calendar year and the November report will be the telling one.

Though as I say, I would be delighted to be proven wrong, and I’ll pop across town and buy you a beer if they report closer to 20,000 than 1,000, and for anyone else interested in a beer too.

Either way, it's an undervalued stock and damn good buy right here.

Edit: It was 2,000 user programme tests in total undertaken in 2012/13 not 2,000 US user programme tests , but 700-800 patients were involved in the US many of whom would have required multiple tests.

5740

Harvey Specter

18-04-2014, 02:02 PM

I’ve been sleeping on it Hancock’s, whether they report 1,000 or 20,000 tests in five week’s time, it is just noise, a brush stroke in the big picture of that five year plan and that 4,000 test per week rated lab.
For (potential) high growth companies like this, 90%+ of the value in a DCF calc will be in the terminal value. This years sales are irrelevant in the scheme of things.

Swann way probably referring to calendar 2014' not financial 2014. The company should have clarified that Nader continuous disclosure in my opinion.

Xerof

18-04-2014, 02:20 PM

Swann was probably referring to calendar 2014' not financial 2014. The company should have clarified that under continuous disclosure in my opinion.

Personally, I have always assumed he was talking calendar year, but I'll take financial as an off-course substitute....

SimonHouse

18-04-2014, 03:38 PM

Don't confuse commercial sales with trials. Tests that are done for prospective clients might include trials which are charged at a lesser commercial rate. Could still be big numbers (eg, several thousand)

skid

18-04-2014, 04:26 PM

So even if they are not getting much of an uptake at all,its irrelevant in the grand scheme of things?
I,like Hancock,would not be totally comfortable with that.
I certainly wouldnt write them off,but there certainly could be better outcomes. IMO

mcdongle

18-04-2014, 06:15 PM

Was anyone else at the Christchurch Forbar Presentation ?

Balance

18-04-2014, 08:18 PM

Was anyone else at the Christchurch Forbar Presentation ?

When was the presentation?

mcdongle

19-04-2014, 12:26 AM

It was on the 28th February

barney

19-04-2014, 02:02 PM

The "tens of thousands of tests" comment by Chris Swann is a total red hearing - it is certainly not formal guidance as some seem to suggest. I emailed David Darling about it in February and here is what he said;

I can confirm for you that those numbers that are reported in that article are incorrect and were not in fact given to the media in the Chris Swann interview..

I think a few thousand tests at most is realistic for this next report. I have heard David speak publicly about being very confident about the 100m number within 5 years but not sure about the "shape of the growth curve" - ie a straight line or curved, stating slowly and accelerating towards the latter part of the 5 years. I think it is more likely to be the latter.

I tend to agree. I don't think it will be more than a thousand tests, probably less. The half year report mentions " a steady growth of the adoption of cxbladder in all markets." As DD mentioned at one agm, it's like trying to get a big heavy ball rolling.It takes a lot of energy in the initial stages untill some momentum builds. I think we have only just started moving. The real lift will most come after deals with CMS,VA, etc.

I see that Oryzon have signed an agreement with Roche to develop epigenetics based medicine. I wonder if their focus will now be centred around this rather than diagnostics ? They certainly don't appear to have made a lot of progress regarding cxbladder. The diagnostics page on their website seems to have disappeared. I wonder if PEB are looking at other partners for Europe ?

Bobcat.

19-04-2014, 02:24 PM

It's not a good sign that there is still only a single NZ DHB on board. Achieving some critical mass here with NZ hospitals would be good news, if and when that happens.

MAC

19-04-2014, 02:56 PM

I see that Oryzon have signed an agreement with Roche to develop epigenetics based medicine. I wonder if their focus will now be centred around this rather than diagnostics ? They certainly don't appear to have made a lot of progress regarding cxbladder. The diagnostics page on their website seems to have disappeared. I wonder if PEB are looking at other partners for Europe ?

It's my observation too Barney that a lot of JV's operationally often underperform in house business units. The emphasis and push to sell often doesn’t seem to get the same level of emphasis from the JV partner.

A2 milk and their JV with Mueller Wiseman is a good example. But, just like ATM, PEB will benefit greatly from working with an established partner for exploiting pre-existing relationships, smoozing of officials, and completing local European user programmes required for achieving the requisite European Union CE Mark approval.

Once all that is out of the way, it could well be that a very good outcome for Pacific Edge longer term could be to ultimately mobilise their own salesforce and/or construct a laboratory in Europe, I hope so but am not across the details of the JV contract.

aGuyCalledBob

19-04-2014, 03:13 PM

It's not a good sign that there is still only a single NZ DHB on board...

Or simply a result of them putting the time and money into the bigger US market...?

MAC

19-04-2014, 03:14 PM

We might all get an opportunity to better clarify over wine and canapés;

I’ve noticed a difference of opinion between CS and DD multiple times in the media, CS quotes the five year goal as being US$100M in gross revenues, DD as NZ$100M in revenues.

If one allows for an exchange rate of 0.85 and considers COGS as per the 2011 capital raising documents, the difference in NZD is $100M versus $145M.

Perhaps the Chairman likes to ratchet the pressure and the CEO likes to play it down.

I’d just prefer they had a quiet chat, guarantee guidance will come up at the AGM.

https://www.facebook.com/PacificEdge...ed_target_id=0 (https://www.facebook.com/PacificEdgeLtd?directed_target_id=0)

skid

19-04-2014, 03:52 PM

Anything out of Australia?
They have been there longer than the states and have a bigger population than NZ

barney

19-04-2014, 04:07 PM

There is Oryzon Genomics and Oryzon Diagnostics.

HyperLink: Oryzon Diagnostics and Cxbladder (https://www.oryzondx.com/en/cxbladder-bladder-cancer)

Cheers Hancocks.

clip

19-04-2014, 06:37 PM

It's not a good sign that there is still only a single NZ DHB on board. Achieving some critical mass here with NZ hospitals would be good news, if and when that happens.

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/bop-and-lakes-urologists-adopt-cxbladder/
Like MidCentral DHB, which began using Cxbladderdetect in June, BOP urologists will use Cxbladderdetect to evaluate patients presenting with blood in the urine (haematuria) as part of their clinical regime. This new strategy is expected to involve local GPs (the patient’s primary point of contact when symptoms occur) using Cxbladderdetect to help prioritise those patients who need to be seen urgently. They will also be able to identify low risk patients who do not require a full clinical work-up for bladder cancer, saving the public health system considerable associated expense, not to mention the inconvenience to the patients.

If they are successful in getting GP's into using cxbladder rather than just hospitals/larger health providers I would expect sales to start increasing exponentially in NZ - I'm not saying that's going to start happening soon. But, if GP's are using it to diagnose patients and advise whether they need further treatment/expert care at hospitals, rather than initally referring patients to hospitals for further tests, I would think the word of mouth effect between GP's will be quite strong

MAC

19-04-2014, 08:47 PM

Apologies, it was over 2,000 user programme tests total in 2012/13 and 2013/14 not 2,000 US user programme tests. Certainly, 700 to 800 patients were involved in the US many of whom would have been tested more than once, I shall go back and amend my post.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/news/2013-AGM-Presentation.pdf
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Yoda

19-04-2014, 10:09 PM

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/bop-and-lakes-urologists-adopt-cxbladder/
Like MidCentral DHB, which began using Cxbladderdetect in June, BOP urologists will use Cxbladderdetect to evaluate patients presenting with blood in the urine (haematuria) as part of their clinical regime. This new strategy is expected to involve local GPs (the patient’s primary point of contact when symptoms occur) using Cxbladderdetect to help prioritise those patients who need to be seen urgently. They will also be able to identify low risk patients who do not require a full clinical work-up for bladder cancer, saving the public health system considerable associated expense, not to mention the inconvenience to the patients.

If they are successful in getting GP's into using cxbladder rather than just hospitals/larger health providers I would expect sales to start increasing exponentially in NZ - I'm not saying that's going to start happening soon. But, if GP's are using it to diagnose patients and advise whether they need further treatment/expert care at hospitals, rather than initally referring patients to hospitals for further tests, I would think the word of mouth effect between GP's will be quite strong
there are 4 DHBs signed up.
some GPs will refer pts to private clinics for tests for haematurea, and these are sub contracted to the DHB, LIKE IN BOP DHB. GPs are unlikly to use it, they do the simple haematurea test and refer to specialists for close investigations.

MAC

20-04-2014, 11:50 AM

In October Pacific Edge told us that Cxbladder(triage) would be launched as a new product in 2014 Q2 (calendar year guidance once again), so in April/May/June, anytime now, tap, tap, ....

“Pacific Edge’s on-going development programme includes clinical and User Programmes to validate Cxbladder(triage) a new product positioned to enable clinicians to segregate patients who have presented to the clinician with haematuria, who do not have bladder cancer”.

And, as we know a 400 patient user programme for micro haematuria segregation is completing at present. Hopefully, Cxbladder(triage) will deliver a specificity of the same or better than that of NPM22(bladder check) at 96%.

I’ve not a medical background but would appreciate some help from those whom do.

Presumably, under certain diagnostic criteria haematuria patients for whom an initial Cxbladder(detect) test has resulted in a negative outcome for bladder cancer may then be provided with an additional Cxbladder(triage) test as a second stage tool for specificity screening.

Has anyone a feel for the relative rate of occurrence for which Cxbladder(triage) would be required ?

5741

Bobcat.

20-04-2014, 05:06 PM

there are 4 DHBs signed up.
some GPs will refer pts to private clinics for tests for haematurea, and these are sub contracted to the DHB, LIKE IN BOP DHB. GPs are unlikly to use it, they do the simple haematurea test and refer to specialists for close investigations.

Yes, I stand corrected, having missed the Feb announcement as posted by Clip, but I count three - Midcentral, BOP and Lakes. What's the fourth?

Minerbarejet

20-04-2014, 06:50 PM

Yes, I stand corrected, having missed the Feb announcement as posted by Clip, but I count three - Midcentral, BOP and Lakes. What's the fourth?Bobcat, you really must keep up.
Please go to the website for Pacificedge and read their announcements. Think you will find that under the hub announcement that Auckland, Waitemata, Counties Manukau and Canterbury are all included as of Feb 10.
And here you are trading the things.
All said in the nicest possible way without rancour or malice
Noah Fence