PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

But Miner, us TA people are soulless machines that blindly follow squiggles and don't give FA about FA don't ya know eh? ;)Yeah , but Moosie, they might as well see what the company has to say for itself, eh, never know, might pick up a good one to hang onto, eh
Above text in Canadian vernacular, eh
Mind you I'd be kinda leery about that, eh
Have a nice day, eh
Miner:)

[Bobcat.]

Bobcat, you really must keep up.
Please go to the website for Pacificedge and read their announcements. Think you will find that under the hub announcement that Auckland, Waitemata, Counties Manukau and Canterbury are all included as of Feb 10.
And here you are trading the things.
All said in the nicest possible way without rancour or malice
Noah Fence

Then that makes a lot more than four, yes? Mmm, that has to be a good sign. And yes, I really must keep up, although that's not always possible. This thread can easily get away on me when I haven't read it for only a day or two!

Technically, I am seeing support at 111c, and may well buy back into this stock Tuesday. I do like stocks that dip and weave nicely for trading but which also have great upside longer term. At the cost of incurring more brokerage but less risk of not holding come the next positive announcement, I will at these levels now trade half but continue to hold the other half. Yes, more prudent me thinks.

[Minerbarejet]

Then that makes a lot more than four, yes? Mmm, that has to be a good sign. And yes, I really must keep up, although that's not always possible. This thread can easily get away on me when I haven't read it for only a day or two!

Technically, I am seeing support at 111c, and may well buy back into this stock Tuesday. I do like stocks that dip and weave nicely for trading but which also have great upside longer term. At the cost of incurring more brokerage but less risk of not holding come the next positive announcement, I will at these levels now trade half but continue to hold the other half. Yes, more prudent me thinks.Well now, thats having your cake and eating it. Sounds like you are half convinced this might not be a bad thing to actually hold long term.
By your own thoughts,( risk of not holding come the next announcement), could be heaps, then again, maybe not. Does TA tell you that? Just interested.

[Bobcat.]

TA shows strong resistance at $1.20 and strong support at $1.01.

If this week we see support confirmed higher at $1.11 or perhaps even at last Thursday's low of $1.15 , this could signal a momentum shift and renewal of PEB's upward trend.

The more conservative amongst us will prefer to see it break $1.20 and hold before buying more.

Those less risk averse will buy on a dip rather than wait for $1.20 to be busted.

[MAC]

Further to Sunday’s post (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=475984#post475984);

A significant source of haematuria testing seems to originate from factories and industrial sites where every day many visitors and site staff are routine or random drug tested. A lot of corporates have a concurrent haematuria test performed as a part of their corporate staff health programmes, I’ve worked for companies that do this.

A colleague of mine was tested in just such a way a few years ago at Tiwai Point under this scenario (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=446053&highlight=tiwai+point#post446053);

Say, Chuck was found to have micro haematuria, was in a high risk category as an ex-smoker, was thus appropriately screened with a Cxbladder(detect) test, and it was found that he did not have bladder cancer. The Cxbladder(detect) test he underwent provided this outcome with a very good overall sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 85%.

But, he’s in a high risk category and perhaps a higher specificity test is required for confirmation or as a follow up in six months, and perhaps again in a year’s time just to be sure. As I understand this seems to be where Cxbladder(triage) comes in, which when launched any day now we should receive test specs, which I anticipate will have a specificity of 96% or higher, and perhaps we will get a better understanding from Pacific Edge for the potential market for this new product.

As I understand, around 2% of those presenting with haematuria or micro haematuria ultimately develop bladder cancer, and if there are 74,690 new cases of bladder cancer in the US each year then this would suggest that there are around 3,700,000 cases of micro haematuria presented .

Sounds like a big number but not all would be screened, only those at risk as judged by whatever criteria GP’s and Urologists may apply. But, equally there are quite a high proportion of ex-smokers and those with other risk factors.

If 10% of those presenting with micro haematuria will fall under such a screening programme it would represent a market of 373,000 patients and potentially perhaps 1 to 3 times as many screening tests per annum in the US. With some good marketing perhaps many of these tests might be Cxbladder(triage).

I’d quite like to help better refine an estimate, all analysis and input welcome, online or offline, with a little effort perhaps we can better figure out how to actually value this thing.

[Xerof]

I see, after reading the weekend posts, we now have conflicting statements from the Chair and the CEO (again). The Chair was reported in late December as saying 'tens of thousands of test in 2014'; the CEO, in a private (admittedly unsubstantiated) email, denies that statement was ever made.

If the Chair was misquoted, or even worse, had not even made the comment at all, then why was no action taken by PEB to correct a material misrepresentation that has remained in the public arena for 4 months now.

Has it allowed three insiders time to sell down, whilst the rest of us await details of a fictional 'tens of thousands of tests'?

It's about time someone came clean isn't it?

[winner69]

For (potential) high growth companies like this, 90%+ of the value in a DCF calc will be in the terminal value. This years sales are irrelevant in the scheme of things.

Swann way probably referring to calendar 2014' not financial 2014. The company should have clarified that Nader continuous disclosure in my opinion.

Don't entirely agree about that 'irrelevant' comment.

Agree that most of the value is in the terminal value (ands that is another story)

However if assumed timing of sales (and cash flows) are delayed then all future cash flows (including TV) are further discounted (to get today's value) by how long the delays are.

My DCF of 104 reduces to 91 if I push all income out 1year from what I assumed. Even getting to the same position in 2020 by adjusting 2014 and 2015 down and then increasing the other years (so 2020 cash flow is the same as previously assumed) the DCF value drops to 95

Same end point in 2020 - different DCF valuations

All rather academic ...seems better to measure market sentiment by following the squiggly line n a chart

[baller18]

I see, after reading the weekend posts, we now have conflicting statements from the Chair and the CEO (again). The Chair was reported in late December as saying 'tens of thousands of test in 2014'; the CEO, in a private (admittedly unsubstantiated) email, denies that statement was ever made.

If the Chair was misquoted, or even worse, had not even made the comment at all, then why was no action taken by PEB to correct a material misrepresentation that has remained in the public arena for 4 months now.

Has it allowed three insiders time to sell down, whilst the rest of us await details of a fictional 'tens of thousands of tests'?

It's about time someone came clean isn't it?

Exactly my thoughts the other day, how come no one cleared it in the media if 'tens of thousands of tests' was never reported by Crhis Swan but the media put it in their themselves?

[Balance]

Hi guys - missed this conversation. Where has this latest info come from (an email?) to say that Swann's ''several tens of thousands of tests'' comment has been challenged by the CEO? Cheers.

OK I see the relevant post:
The "tens of thousands of tests" comment by Chris Swann is a total red hearing - it is certainly not formal guidance as some seem to suggest. I emailed David Darling about it in February and here is what he said;

I can confirm for you that those numbers that are reported in that article are incorrect and were not in fact given to the media in the Chris Swann interview..

I think a few thousand tests at most is realistic for this next report. I have heard David speak publicly about being very confident about the 100m number within 5 years but not sure about the "shape of the growth curve" - ie a straight line or curved, stating slowly and accelerating towards the latter part of the 5 years. I think it is more likely to be the latter.

IF this is true I find this completely unacceptable from PEB. Has anyone else emailed them to get clarification on this?

Maybe why one of the big shareholders has just about sold out?

[Xerof]

Maybe why one of the big shareholders has just about sold out?

maybe, and so how did THEY find out about the misinformation? Are we to be told individually? When is it my turn?

[robbo24]

Maybe, I'm pretty pissed to be honest! Interested to hear what others think. Seems like a massive red flag to me!

Oh ra ra ra.

PDF of the email with names, dates, times and original emails or it didn't happen.

In my view the allegation of a mistatement by the Chair is more likely to be fraudulent than the existence of the alleged email.

Status quo of the company's statements versus some random dude on a forum?

Happy to be convinced otherwise with actual evidence.

[Balance]

Maybe, I'm pretty pissed to be honest! Interested to hear what others think. Seems like a massive red flag to me!

Seems plenty clear the Chairman believed tens of thousands of tests during 2014 in the article.

"The Pennsylvania lab has the capacity to process 260,000 tests a year and Swann is confident the company will be processing "several tens of thousands of tests" during 2014."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639

[baller18]

Brighton early up to no good again....

[robbo24]

Or you could email them yourself Robbo - I cant remember - do you have shares in PEB?

I agree with you by the way, but maybe not with quite the ra ra ra :) I've emailed them today as well. Does anyone have DDs email? I will forward to him as well.

Yes, listen to black knat, the guy who mistakenly capitalises the word "Law" in his profile. I'm sure he is many things but probably not a lawyer and probably not correct.

Once again, happy to be convinced otherwise (of the alleged emails and of this man's involvement in the "Law" ).

[skid]

Oh wow. That is... stunningly inept (or blatant ramping, which is a crime).

Can anyone say "DIL chart"?

(Heads back to the woods before the bulls can gore him to death and the bears get the carcass!)

I was just thinking the same thing.
Up until now it has always been ''flawless management''
Now we have contradictions between the 2 top dogs.
Until we have concrete info and speculation is the only thing to go on-this is possibly a worry.
Its hard to imagine these guys wouldnt be on the same page.

[biker]

Seems to me we may be being played here. Either by posters on this site or, by ' someone' manipulating the media.
Probably worthy of clarification by the company. Logic though would surely indicate that the curve would be exponential towards the end of the forecast period, starting from a low, slow base. Have always thought the tens of thousands of sales statement seemed a bit out of place.

[MAC]

Exactly my thoughts the other day, how come no one cleared it in the media if 'tens of thousands of tests' was never reported by Crhis Swan but the media put it in their themselves?

I think you would find that if Chris Swan thought at any time whatsoever that he had been misquoted he would then have immediately requested a retraction, and/or, better clarified at his next opportunity with the media.

The fact that neither of these two things occurred is entirely implicit that he was both not misquoted at all, and, that he is entirely satisfied with the guidance that the market received.

Nice bit of controversy though by those who like controversy.

[robbo24]

Now we have contradictions between the 2 top dogs.


Do we? Point me to the evidence of the contradiction.

[Xerof]

You called?

Lol..........

Robbo, agree, and that is why I said - 'someone needs to come clean', Black Gnat or PEB, I don't care who

[robbo24]

Lol..........

Robbo, agree, and that is why I said - 'someone needs to come clean', Black Gnat or PEB, I don't care who

PEB need not do a thing. Why respond to a completely unproven and unfounded allegation?

[couta1]

For those of you that worried just pick the phone up and clear the confusion up quickly or is there ramping going on here?

[Schrodinger]

For all the DOY'rs out there please consider that the USA healthcare market wont just hand a NZ company millions of dollars of established market without a fight.

Although a few posters have almost convinced me that PEB has a good product, that doesnt automatically win in the USA. There are long established business (cosy?) relationships in this healthcare market and what exactly is going to pull this apart? The key metric here is the sales (test+paying customer) numbers. If they are lacking, scale back your forecast as approriate. At this stage with 300K revenue a market cap of $500M seems rich.

A few thousand posts back someone said revenue of $100M and I stated if they make $10M USA revenue in 5 years that would be a success. This is not going to be easy people. I personally would divide this valuation by 10 until I can see they can sell (rule of thumb $0.15 per share).

As you can probably tell, not holding and dont intend to.

[Schrodinger]

Tumeric the only thing that matters in investing is $$$. The rest contributes towards this. Case in point Buffett who invests in stable businesses at bargain entry points. He prefers stable because he can expect consistent returns in capital gain and dividends. That is the benefit of holding a stock that has these characteristics because you dont have to constantly find new stocks every year.

[couta1]

What the? How am I being accused of down ramping? Pathetic! I own shares in PEB, I certainly don't want the SP to go down. What a Muppet!!

Reaction to a nice little private message by someone :)
At least they had the desency to send you a pm rather than just an anonymous negative reputation comment:cool:

[MAC]

Now, there is a bit of abuse on the thread this morning, do try and attempt to settle it down folks.

There will always be those who are positive, why would they hold a stock if they were not so, there will always be those who would quite like to buy lower or sell higher, but ultimately everyone sees through the disingenuous and manipulative anyway.

Life’s too short to get all frustrated by what one reads on an internet thread.

[couta1]

No no it was the latter. All good, anonymous forum after all. I just wanted to clarify to the anonymous Muppet that I am not down ramping.
Ok,Now don't ya just hate that,like Moosie I always put my name to all Rep comments:cool:

[robbo24]

"L" corrected. robbo24 - you are a halfwit.

A "thank you" would suffice - still waiting on those PDFs...

[karen1]

Think it's time to bring in these guys http://withfriendship.com/images/g/32797/noisecanceling.gif

[jonu]

Midday dumper is back. Who is selling out Balance?

Oh Gee Moosie, maybe anyone who happened to make a 15% profit in the last few days.

[whatsup]

Midday dumper is back. Who is selling out Balance?

Gee there really is a cap on PEB these days and unless the S P rises through it DTers dump and move on, so the real trading range is B $1.03-- S $1.16/7 !

[Minerbarejet]

Just as an aside on observation, what do you see straight away when you look at the company logo.
Couldnt figure out for the life of me why they had a stylised dino the dinosaur flying down hill on a pair of skis with his arms and poles flying out behind him - that is until I actually looked at it properly. Lol,
Life on the " Edge"

[winner69]

Maybe this Swan guy is a bit like Crusher ....a bit vague and forgetful about what goes on.

My investment/punt/trade in PEB has always had this 'are we being taken fora ride here' factor in the back of my mind. Hence risk management has been important and has paid off as what's left are free ones. That's where some FA stuff is important to see what the story is worth (about $1) but the squiggly lines to manage the risk.

[Harvey Specter]

Just as an aside on observation, what do you see straight away when you look at the company logo.
Couldnt figure out for the life of me why they had a stylised dino the dinosaur flying down hill on a pair of skis with his arms and poles flying out behind him - that is until I actually looked at it properly. Lol,
Life on the " Edge"I assume it is mountains leading down to sea (or pacific ocean to be more specific). Interestingly it must be either the west coast of the US or South America, not NZ as that would have the 'coastline' angling the other way???

[skid]

It would be interesting to know just how much ,if at all,anything that gets mentioned on ST actually affects the SP.

[couta1]

It would be interesting to know just how much ,if at all,anything that gets mentioned on ST actually affects the SP.
Judging by the number of guests viewing at times it could especially on the sell side I reckon

[777]

It would be interesting to know just how much ,if at all,anything that gets mentioned on ST actually affects the SP.

My guess is nothing. A lot of things mentioned on here don't even affect other posters buy/sell decisions.

[couta1]

My guess is nothing. A lot of things mentioned on here don't even affect other posters buy/sell decisions.
That's because regulars can discern the crap from the cream mostly but guests who visit now and then may not be in the same boat:cool:

[skid]

So 1 vote no
1 vote yes
and 1 vote 50/50:)

[Copper]

My guess is nothing. A lot of things mentioned on here don't even affect other posters buy/sell decisions.
Looking at earlier posts about whether the Director or CEO was right about tests and the awaiting of a reply from the Company all I can say is that unless a favourable statement is received that this thread will turn into something that all posters and hangers on will be looking at and will certainly affect the share price.It has an eery feeling IMHO that it could get out of hand.

[Minerbarejet]

Lets just have a read of the statement from the ODT.
"and Mr Swann is confident the company will (be) processing "several tens of thousands of tests" next year.
The word confident is open to interpretation of degree. How confident? Somewhat, Reasonably, Quietly, Moderately, Extremely, Supremely.
Take a look at the Met Office- even they have moderate, low and high confidence about how much rain is predicted.
The word confident is the reporters assessment of Mr Swann's attitude at the time of the interview which may have been influenced by other factors in the report that they had been discussing
The (be) is missing from the original report.
Several tens of thousands of tests does not necessarily mean sales of individual tests, possibly a good proportion are trials to bring paying customers on board. We know they are doing this.
There is also the possibility that being so close to the end of the year e.g. Dec 28 he may have meant it for 2015.
Things seem to be going as planned - looking forward, quietly confident.

[winner69]

Lets just have a read of the statement from the ODT.
"and Mr Swann is confident the company will (be) processing "several tens of thousands of tests" next year.
The word confident is open to interpretation of degree. How confident? Somewhat, Reasonably, Quietly, Moderately, Extremely, Supremely.
Take a look at the Met Office- even they have moderate, low and high confidence about how much rain is predicted.
The word confident is the reporters assessment of Mr Swann's attitude at the time of the interview which may have been influenced by other factors in the report that they had been discussing
The (be) is missing from the original report.
Several tens of thousands of tests does not necessarily mean sales of individual tests, possibly a good proportion are trials to bring paying customers on board. We know they are doing this.
There is also the possibility that being so close to the end of the year e.g. Dec 28 he may have meant it for 2015.
Things seem to be going as planned - looking forward, quietly confident.

Good God miner ..... you making this Swann guy sound even more like Crusher than I imagined

[winner69]

For all the DOY'rs out there please consider that the USA healthcare market wont just hand a NZ company millions of dollars of established market without a fight.

Although a few posters have almost convinced me that PEB has a good product, that doesnt automatically win in the USA. There are long established business (cosy?) relationships in this healthcare market and what exactly is going to pull this apart? The key metric here is the sales (test+paying customer) numbers. If they are lacking, scale back your forecast as approriate. At this stage with 300K revenue a market cap of $500M seems rich.

A few thousand posts back someone said revenue of $100M and I stated if they make $10M USA revenue in 5 years that would be a success. This is not going to be easy people. I personally would divide this valuation by 10 until I can see they can sell (rule of thumb $0.15 per share).

As you can probably tell, not holding and dont intend to.

Makes you wonder if they know their way around Madison Ave and lets hope they don't need to resort to giving some dosh to these PACs to make things work out for them

[nextbigthing]

Tumeric, when you get it, would you mind posting the reply for us all to see. I'd like to think DD has more important things to do than reply to 300 nervous shareholders individually...

Cheers, NBT

[Xerof]

Tumeric, when you get it, would you mind posting the reply for us all to see. I'd like to think DD has more important things to do than reply to 300 nervous shareholders individually...

Cheers, NBT

I'd rather Black knat share the love too NBT. After all, it's his/her assertion of DD denial that got me going in the first place, but not a shred of corroboration shown at all. Instead he/she prefers to whisper sweet nothings in turmeric's mailbox to appease his protestations

[janner]

What is all the fuss about ???

If you are a Trader.. Go about your business..

If you are a long term holder.. Go about your business..

If you are a speculator.. Take your losses.. or your profits...

[nextbigthing]

I'd rather Black knat share the love too NBT. After all, it's his/her assertion of DD denial that got me going in the first place, but not a shred of corroboration shown at all. Instead he/she prefers to whisper sweet nothings in turmeric's mailbox to appease his protestations

Yes agreed.

One thing that concerns me is the parallel between DIL and PEB. When things soured at DIL management were silent much to the dislike of the market. Possibly because at the time they had nothing positive to say, not even 'stop stressing everything's on track'. Perhaps PEB have nothing positive to say.....:scared: and before anyone mentions down ramping, I'm holding!

A calming release from DD would certainly settle a few people.

[Snow Leopard]

Exhibit A:
5743

Definitely confirming the latest and steepest [down]trend line.
Still - all trends change at some point.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Now waits for Hoop to re-interpret it]

[winner69]

Yes agreed.

One thing that concerns me is the parallel between DIL and PEB. When things soured at DIL management were silent much to the dislike of the market. Possibly because at the time they had nothing positive to say, not even 'stop stressing everything's on track'. Perhaps PEB have nothing positive to say.....:scared: and before anyone mentions down ramping, I'm holding!

A calming release from DD would certainly settle a few people.

And the Robinsons always had a lot to say in the early days .... and then they went rather quite as well

Don't know what that company was ..... completely forgotten ..... but I believe you are not to mention the name on this thread

[couta1]

If your Long term keep your pee to yourself. If your Short term let it out. If your a trader share it around :cool:

[winner69]

Love the title of the chart there PT.

In his best Fawlty Towers voice: Whatever you do, don't mention the DIL!

Upside down it looks uglier

But mirror mirror on the wall, whose the fairest one of them all?

[nextbigthing]

If your Long term keep your pee to yourself. If your Short term let it out. If your a trader share it around :cool:

You're into some weird stuff Couta.

[couta1]

You're into some weird stuff Couta.
Just an overactive imagination NBT and besides I'm missing using my creative writing skills over on the Snakk thread now that duck hunting season looks to be over

[couta1]

I second that. Maybe we should direct him to the HNZ thread eh?
That punishment would be to great Moosie if I have to read all of Snoopy's posts in full (No offense Snoopy but I don't want to analyze that stock that much,Disc- Hold them) :cool:

[janner]

And the Robinsons always had a lot to say in the early days .... and then they went rather quite as well

Don't know what that company was ..... completely forgotten ..... but I believe you are not to mention the name on this thread


I do believe from memory ( quite long ) It is not to be mentioned on any thread !!

[winner69]

Action on Nasdaq overnight will put a rocket under PEB today

Back over 120 methinks

PT will need to redo his charts to show end break

[Minerbarejet]

Thank goodness that grey swann event appears to be over:)

[klid]

Lol. If the NBI returns to where it was then so will this one. Overvalued compared to what? Lol.

[Minerbarejet]

(All you PEB panickers can rest easy now... until sales time that is!)And so on and so on until the next sales report, and the next and the next and the next until 5 years are up, they have possibly achieved what they set as goals or close to it and everyone is a happy camper, well,- most.

[robbo24]

Welcome my son, welcome to the index...
https://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/finance/details/?.b=details%2F%3F.b%3Dquotessearch%252f%253f.b%253 ddetails%252f%253f.b%253dquotessearch%252f%253f.b% 253ddetails%252f%253f.b%253dquotes&.sy=%5ENBI&.intl=gb&.lang=en-gb#bp-hist:tabs-84=1;

(All you PEB panickers can rest easy now... until sales time that is!)

The PEB SP does not respond to the NBI.

The PEB SP responds only to unsubstantiated claims of bearish emails from the CEO.

I thought you knew this?

[skid]

I second that. Maybe we should direct him to the HNZ thread eh?

How about PPP

[skid]

The PEB SP does not respond to the NBI.

The PEB SP responds only to unsubstantiated claims of bearish emails from the CEO.

I thought you knew this?

I think its a weird mix of outside markets( NBI) and the company itself--Now that the outside markets have calmed,I believe the emphasis has shifted back to the company.
Until these doubts are cleared up I dont see it rocketing.
I think alot of us have become addicted to the ''rocketing'' but now it may be more ''once burned twice shy'' easy as it goes---We'll see (runs for cover)

[SimonHouse]

I think this thread has jumped the shark. I remember coming here in the middle of last year and finding the information and discourse quite useful in understanding the risk and potential for PEB. Not anymore.

[Xerof]

Thanks for explaining your position BK.

I did initially take your comment as genuine, hence I raised the issue of inconsistencies at the Company level - if the comment was never made, they should have retracted it (IMO) The position is exacerbated by privately informing individuals that the published statement should not be relied upon - don't they owe that correction to ALL shareholders.

Secondly robbo raised a valid point of seeking some evidence of DD's statement to you. fairy nuff, I hadn't questioned your motives, but he did.

Apologies if I came across as 'hostile' but perhaps you can understand my point about transparency and even playing fields.

[MAC]

All you traders seem entirely oblivious to the relevant fact that there are actually two CEO’s within the world of Pacific Edge, and when it comes to US sales, such is the jurisdiction of Jackie Walker.

David Darling is a relatively fresh CEO when it comes to overseeing what’s becoming a large listed organisation. IMO he’s doing a superb job, laying down focused multiyear strategies and consistently meeting the goals he provides to the market, it’s one of the reasons I’m heavily invested and committed to Pacific Edge.

If I was in David’s shoes I would absolutely not be responding to any random share trader emails, if indeed he has at all, most CEO’s would not and generally don’t. Particularly if it means pandering to short term holders who have very little interest or loyalty in the prosperity of the company.

I suspect increasingly going forward now he may also feel quite uncomfortable providing sales guidance and/or reporting on PEDusa progress and ambitions, this is Jackie Walkers domain now.

It’s just my opinion, but a part of the reason that we have seen contradictory five year goal targets and seemingly to some (not me) unclear short term guidance is because Jackie is relatively new to the organisation and is probably only just now starting to assert some authority over her portfolio. I was pleased to see her January announcement to this effect. https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/188563.pdf

I’m confident that Pacific Edge will provide us with good guidance either at FY14 reporting or more likely at the AGM in August, although certainly IMO they will get a total roasting if not by then. I would be disappointed if Jackie does not deliver this guidance in person too.

All good things come to the patient.

[robbo24]

I am not going to "provide proof" by posting the email itself. It is a private email query to the company and responce.

That's fine, just keeps things interesting.

I would have thought that sales information is price sensitive, in which case inventing such information may fall fowl of s 11 of the Securities Markets Act 1988:


s 11 False or misleading statement or information
A person must not make a statement or disseminate information if—


(a) a material aspect of the statement or information is false or the statement or information is materially misleading; and



(b) the person knows or ought reasonably to know that a material aspect of the statement or information is false or that the statement or information is materially misleading; and



(c) the statement or information is likely to—

(i) induce a person to trade in the securities of a public issuer; or



(ii) have the effect of increasing, reducing, maintaining, or stabilising the price for trading in those securities; or



(iii) induce a person to vote for, or vote against, a transaction, or to abstain from voting in respect of that transaction.




Equally, the disconnect between the public statement in the article and the private statement (allegedly reproduced by you) could be cause for concern for management of PEB. This has been alluded to by Balance in an earlier post.

However, seeing as the "best evidence" is the tangible, published evidence when weighed against your unpublished, unproven email, it is still my current view that you are simply rattling the cage.

Once again, more than happy to be proven wrong!

[geo]

BK - why won't you post at least a screenshot of the email? Blank out your name and leave the rest. Otherwise, seems fair for others to not believe you.

NG why don't you email DD yourself and post his response here??????????????

[Tsuba]

There appear's to be a few precious little bunnies bouncing around on this thread.

[robbo24]

My concern at the reliability of the one-line comment attributed to the chair, buried in a general article in the ODT, and quite contrary to the policy of the company not to give near term projections, was what led me to email the company.

Thanks.

Your comments are only evidence in the context of a discussion on a public forum about whether your information is actually exists. No need for you to feign being naive in that regard black knat.

It is important and material information.

You brought it up and got questioned on its veracity. You say it is private correspondence, yet it is about the sales information of a publicly listed company. It is clearly an option to you to blank out your name and details to support what you say.

Otherwise, you're seemingly implying that PEB allowed incorrect sales projections to be published without correcting those details.

That's the only relevant thing now, don't you agree?

[MAC]

If David Darling ever emailed contrary information or did not is really not even a bit an important matter.

Pacific Edge are indeed absolutely content with the “tens of thousands of tests in 2014” guidance, else they would have, QED;

a) Demanded the ODT print a retraction, which they must do if incorrect, and yet have not, or,

b) Better clarified with the media at the next opportunity, which they did not.

Storms in tea cup’s people, sometimes I’m astonished that so many have so little to do other than use this site like its facebook.

[Minerbarejet]

Perhaps some of the contestants in this ongoing fracas should go to the source of the problem. Why doesnt somebody get a hold of Simon Hartley at ODT for clarification. He wrote it.

[psychic]

I have today written to both the ODT and PEB, will post if I get a response

[skid]

If David Darling ever emailed contrary information or did not is really not even a bit an important matter.

Pacific Edge are indeed absolutely content with the “tens of thousands of sales in 2014” guidance, else they would have, QED;

a) Demanded the ODT print a retraction, which they must do if incorrect, and yet have not, or,

b) Better clarified with the media at the next opportunity, which they did not.

Storms in tea cup’s people, sometimes I’m astonished that so many have so little to do other than use this site like its facebook.

Still,nothing wrong with ''staying on our toes''
Im interested in the company doing well(especially for the cancer patients)
But Loyalty might be a bit of a stretch if it involves blind faith.
Yes ,I agree about the ''investors facebook'' claim--This is one busy thread:)

[geo]

because others have already tried and failed. I think you're full of crap unless you furnish proof.

Others may have tried and failed including me at least we tried I am trying again.

You seem to want to sit back and ride on the coat tails of others.

Next you will want us all to reveal our holdings for your information, or how much we have in the bank. Give Me A Break.

[Minerbarejet]

Stay on track guys, the words were tens of thousands of tests.
Not sales. Different ball of wax. Therefore all this talk about sales guidance is ( please place whatever word you think appropriate).
Do have a nice day:)

[psychic]

Yeah but Miner, tens of thousands of tests (if not all freebies) implies lotsa sales $.

We would all have been disappointed if he'd said tens of thousands of $ revenue, as that would be diddly.

[Minerbarejet]

Number of urologists in the US 10-14000 midrange 12000 from Google
Say 25 % =3000 urologists sent 10 freebies for use at one per month for 2014.
Theres 30000 tests right there plus of course the three from November HY and one of our posters godfather here in NZ that we know about.
Crikey, they only have to sell 6 and they will have 100% increase in sales:)

[nextbigthing]

Try giving them a call....

[Copper]

To the chartists on this thread,am I right in looking at one dollar as a point which is critical for support.A break below this and closing below may have us looking at a possible fall to where we have come from.To me the chart is very like an Aussy miner.Any comment would be appreciated.Don't want to be pessimistic or otherwise.tks.

[skid]

I'd say retest of $1.20 with a break upwards. Would be careful about a sustained breakthrough though (oh god he's going to mention DIL again) as we saw with Diligent charts (oh no he said it!) as there are still no sales we know of and there's a big seller still in the wings. Unless we get something huge we aren't goimg to see $1.70 again soon.

This from earlier in the day and now your talking about $1 retest--my head is spinning trying to keep up with you guys:)

[winner69]

bipolar trading at its very finest! :cool:

Suppose that is more polite than the 'headless chook' he was once described as

Sorry moosie ..... you really good guy ...still owe you a beer or two

[Hoop]

Its been 12 days and 600 posts since my last scary chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology/page481)

Luckily PEB managed to manufacture a support at the psychological $1 point (99c) to stop the freefall.
There has been some sort of relief rally to 120 but failed at that resistance point when buyer numbers dwindled...This is disturbing as failure to rally past a significant resistance level are the signatures of bear market corrections (sucker rally..dead cat bounces, etc) Also a signature of a dead cat bounce is the rule of thumb.. expect a bounce of 30% of the fall....157 -99 = 58 x 30% = 19c bounce...well PEB gave a 21c bounce...near enough to be worried?..yes.

If we rely on hope... then the untested $1 (99c) support has to be strong enough to resist this suspected continuation pattern...it is looking more likely than not that the $1 support is going to be tested....There is still a vacuum below $1 down to 70c so the $1 support is the technical cliff edge....scary...

On trying to look on the positive side....... There's a smidgen of a hint of support at 110c,If buyers come back, e.g buoyed on by an increasing Nasdq, then the 120c resistance becomes a focal point and that ultra weak 110 support becomes slightly stronger...If the price goes above this point then I suspect medium term buy signals will trigger and the huge technical risk will dissipate somewhat...This reduction of the risk premium will adjust the price upwards.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB23042014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB23042014.gif.html)

[winner69]

Hey Hoop .... you used the term 'blow off'

The only other times you have used this term has been with DIL and dare I say it RAKON

A 50% FIB retracement at 98 cents on your chart adds support to your comment about what could happen if PEB falls to the 99/100 mark again

[Copper]

Many tks for your chartist comments guys.I have to say that I am leaning to the pessimistic side of things.My simple approach is based on the fact that the price has not had any sustained rise since the Nasdaq has had a good rally.All we have seen in my opinion is a rise early in the day followed by persistent selling as if one of those large holders is still unloading in a subtle way.We have also the uncertainty on the thread of whether there are ten thousand tests or a much smaller amount and whether they are paying tests or some other sort.All a bit weird until some actual statement is forthcoming.All the good news has passed and we are in decline not marching onward.IMHO this thing cannot stand a partly negative announcement.Thats just my simple view for consideration......Personally I hope I am wrong as it's a well deserving Company.
disc...sold earlier as advised on previous post.....cheers...

[winner69]

Nasdaq bio down heaps = PEB over 120 today

That's how it all works

[Minerbarejet]

Nasdaq bio down heaps = PEB over 120 today

That's how it all works
A somewhat contrarian view, Winner. Could be right - you never know with this lot.:)

[Copper]

Nasdaq bio down heaps = PEB over 120 today

That's how it all works
That's as good a reason as any....I have just looked at announcements from 2013 around this time and find in April nothing was announced of note and not until the last day of May when preliminary figures were announced was there anything of note.If this pans out the same this year we are in for a dull period.IMHO.

[Longhaul]

Its been 12 days and 600 posts since my last scary chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology/page481)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB23042014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB23042014.gif.html)

Any idea where us mortals might find free charts that include OBV? Looks like quite a useful indicator.

[psychic]

Any idea where us mortals might find free charts that include OBV? Looks like quite a useful indicator.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/

Advanced Charts, OBV under lower indicator

[Hoop]

Any idea where us mortals might find free charts that include OBV? Looks like quite a useful indicator.

Hi Longhaul
All the different style of charts I post on ST forum are from free programs... I did this so to show that anyone on Sharetrader can produce basic/advanced charts...Its particularily useful for FA investors who only want basic TA to time their buys and sells without having the expense in buying a program which they would not totally use...

My above chart is from Big Charts ...I RH click the mouse to save my chart to file then open it with my free open source software Paint.net program to add text, arrows, lines, shadings etc..When finished I save it again..then go online to Photobucket.com open up the file within photobucket and copy the image code and paste that code into your post in the ST forum thread....You probably have to register with photobucket the first time...its free...

Psychic has already posted the link.....once you have opened the webpage type the share code you are interested in in the blank box e.g Pacific Edge Biotechnology code is NZ:PEB Fletcher Building is NZ:FBU For Aussi shares e.g BHP Billiton Ltd is AU:BHP

Click the advance chart box and play around with the settings to suit.......you can save your settings..

Enjoy:)

EDIT: you can copy and paste Big charts straight from their website page to forum page When you do it this way they are live charts and self updating .......You can't do this with stockcharts nor incredible charts ...with them you have to use the above method I outlined

[Copper]

I don't know whether any of you have depth on your screens but there just seems to be a persistent seller in the background that stops the thing getting any traction.....

[karen1]

WOT? Only SEVEN posts today???? And three of them in relation to where to get a decent chart, so only FOUR posts about PEB. I'm missing my daily fix! Can't get by without all the drama/doom/gloom/knowledge/assumption/expert advice, spindoctoring, where has it all gone?

[Minerbarejet]

WOT? Only SEVEN posts today???? And three of them in relation to where to get a decent chart, so only FOUR posts about PEB. I'm missing my daily fix! Can't get by without all the drama/doom/gloom/knowledge/assumption/expert advice, spindoctoring, where has it all gone?
All too busy sending annoying multiple emails requesting hourly updates about sales.:)
That better?

[Copper]

WOT? Only SEVEN posts today???? And three of them in relation to where to get a decent chart, so only FOUR posts about PEB. I'm missing my daily fix! Can't get by without all the drama/doom/gloom/knowledge/assumption/expert advice, spindoctoring, where has it all gone?
Good on you.....I posted a rather negative comment yesterday and I heard the thread grind to a shuddering halt.It stopped in its tracks.I think the Chartists are trying to find an avenue that is positive to the mix.Hoop's post was a great one....

[winner69]

WOT? Only SEVEN posts today???? And three of them in relation to where to get a decent chart, so only FOUR posts about PEB. I'm missing my daily fix! Can't get by without all the drama/doom/gloom/knowledge/assumption/expert advice, spindoctoring, where has it all gone?

Methinks most in a state of shock (and disbelief) that PEB falling back to a $1 again

[janner]

WOT? Only SEVEN posts today???? And three of them in relation to where to get a decent chart, so only FOUR posts about PEB. I'm missing my daily fix! Can't get by without all the drama/doom/gloom/knowledge/assumption/expert advice, spindoctoring, where has it all gone?

More twists and turns than Coro or Shortie could ever come up with ..

aye Karen ;-))

[karen1]

Methinks most in a state of shock (and disbelief) that PEB falling back to a $1 again

Righto, so I take it we are now UNloved. There's that ditty about patience....

Mbj - you surely couldn't be right, multiple emails to DD and the team? If that's the case then they must have had as much of a laugh as I did yesterday! Panic at it's finest. Maybe it will be XRO's turn to be bombarded tomorrow then. Or some other business just trying to do their business.

I have lately ceased to be amazed at some of the posts on this thread, that's for sure.

Good luck to all holders

[SimonHouse]

Sir Dumpsalot we shall call them!



You might be closer to the truth than you realise! Sir Stephen Tindall is a major shareholder through his K1W1 company. That may be one of the big sellers....

[Xerof]

You might be closer to the truth than you realise! Sir Stephen Tindall is a major shareholder through his K1W1 company. That may be one of the big sellers....

Incorrect, no change to that holding.

snapiti might have an inkling, if he can see through the smoke and mirrors :cool:

[SimonHouse]

Incorrect, no change to that holding.

snapiti might have an inkling, if he can see through the smoke and mirrors :cool:

The Masfen family? Supalife? Hulich?

[Longhaul]

Thanks Psychic and Hoop - appreciated.

[Minerbarejet]

Righto, so I take it we are now UNloved. There's that ditty about patience....

Mbj - you surely couldn't be right, multiple emails to DD and the team? If that's the case then they must have had as much of a laugh as I did yesterday! Panic at it's finest. Maybe it will be XRO's turn to be bombarded tomorrow then. Or some other business just trying to do their business.

I have lately ceased to be amazed at some of the posts on this thread, that's for sure.

Good luck to all holdersTongue in cheek- not to be taken too seriously. This is still a good thread but it gets out of control every now and then. What we had today was- significant pause for reflection and calming of nerves - a contrast to yesterday's verbal donnybrook.:)

[Copper]

Righto, so I take it we are now UNloved. There's that ditty .

I have lately ceased to be amazed at some of the posts on this thread, that's for sure.

Good luck to all holders
Appreciate your position and I agree that the Company may at present be unloved.Some of the posts on this thread are at times unrelated to the share price.I once accused it of being a speaking site for the Otago Medical School and then we got a barrage of intellectual comment on where the share price was going but to get back to my recent posts this thing has got a sinking feel about it.My post on announcements last year may lead to no comment from the Company for weeks as it's near the announcement date for results.If that's the case then all the buyers on this thread who were waiting to get in at one dollar may hesitate and say let's look at eighty cents and when it's eighty three seller may say let's look at sixty five.Thats just one scenario.All I know is the fact that the odd dull period on this site is related to investors thinking what could happen which is a good thing.IMHO.

[MAC]

WOT? Only SEVEN posts today???? And three of them in relation to where to get a decent chart, so only FOUR posts about PEB. I'm missing my daily fix! Can't get by without all the drama/doom/gloom/knowledge/assumption/expert advice, spindoctoring, where has it all gone?

Must have been a slow day Karen in the peculiar art of rolling bones and trying to decide what this week’s self fulfilling prophecy ought to be.

Clock’s ticking on those coming new products, new markets, HMO agreements, let’s watch as those same lab rats claw, bite and chase each other well over $2 by years end!

[karen1]

Mac is back! And with a dose of faith, I see. Yes, you are quite right Mac, we should look forward to the advancement/news of products in the pipeline. Yesterday was more agonising than slow, bit like being confronted with a jungle to weed, all the while being screeched at by mostly mindless twittering (oh oh, now I've gone and done it!) - who says noah fence?!

Mjb, no way did I take your comment seriously! Nor should mine have been, re all those emails! Call today what you will, the silence after yesterday was pleasantly deafening! And yes, this is generally a great thread.

Copper, I believe the nature of PEB's business is such that they simply cannot publicly update every five minutes, IP etc. And I would be concerned if all the buyers on this thread were hanging off posts to make their decisions!

Too much gloom is bad for the soul. Think positive thoughts all!

[Copper]

Must have been a slow day Karen in the peculiar art of rolling bones and trying to decide what this week’s self fulfilling prophecy ought to be.

Clock’s ticking on those coming new products, new markets, HMO agreements, let’s watch as those same lab rats claw, bite and chase each other well over $2 by years end!

You may well be right Mac. I find your posts very informative and worthwhile.It does however bring me back to the short term share price as against the medical achievements of the Company.It reminds me of the trader and the analyst in the same broking firm where the analyst said that the price was going to $2 and the trader said it was going to 65 cents.When confronted as to how could you reconcile those facts ,the trader piped up and said we are both right ,it will go to $2 but it will drop to 65 cents on the way.We will see....

[robbo24]

Not sure what would be a sensible conclusion to draw other than the test is out there and being used in the US.

P.S no sign of robbo26 lately - I guess that is to be expected (...apologies karen1 just a minor negative relapse)

8 robbo24 26.82% [WYN(104.35) DIL(30.14) MRP(15.01) FSF(9.60) SNK(-25.00)]
121 black knat 0.77% [DPC(14.29) SUM(4.39) MET(1.47) EBO(0.90) PEB(-17.19)]


Anyone want to take bets on how many tests were going to get next report?

Tens of thousands, for the sake of black knat's stock picking competition results.

[Minerbarejet]

She'll be right, the nasdaq is up again this morning, -so far.

[Minerbarejet]

Hate to burst ur bubble there mate, but the Nasdaq is effectively down given it was already up 1% in after hours yesterday arvo nz time.
Must be looking at it upside down. Seems that Findata gives a nasdaq composite of + 22 at the moment- would this be in error? Would that be from the closing at 1600 hours EDT yesterday? Havent followed this stuff much.
Cheers
Miner

[winner69]

Hate to burst ur bubble there mate, but the Nasdaq is effectively down given it was already up 1% in after hours yesterday arvo nz time.

But isn't the fairer reflection a view it is up 23 from the same time yesterday

[winner69]

Hi miner, my point is that before the Nasdaq opened today it was already up 1% and that was the case even yesterday arvo while peb was trading. Since then the Nasdaq has fallen. Still up on the day, but effectively worse now than it was yesterday arvo. Hope that makes sense.

All too complicated and complex for me after getting up and going to dawn parade .....but from what you are saying if the market was open today PEB shareprice could collapse to under $1

But luckily the market isn't open and PEB gets a reprieve ....and we have to see how the Nasdaq goes after hours today, futures for Friday, actual for Friday and after hours for Friday and maybe even futures for Monday before we can use this gauge to see where PEB might go Momday

Then PEB might announce tens of thousands of something on Monday morning

[skid]

And what no one has mentioned is that biotec stocks are down 1/2%
Dont know about you but the US markets just dont have the right 'feel'' ATM,especially in this sector.
Caution and hesitation is in the air. IMO

[skid]

All too complicated and complex for me after getting up and going to dawn parade .....but from what you are saying if the market was open today PEB shareprice could collapse to under $1

But luckily the market isn't open and PEB gets a reprieve ....and we have to see how the Nasdaq goes after hours today, futures for Friday, actual for Friday and after hours for Friday and maybe even futures for Monday before we can use this gauge to see where PEB might go Momday


Then PEB might announce tens of thousands of something on Monday morning

I dont think that if the US market was open today that PEB would collapse to under $1--my guess its it will be a bit of a ''nowhere'' day maybe losing a few cents.

The $1 is a pretty strong resistance that I think would take more negativity than this to crack.

The US market in general was kind of in a tug of war last night-for the most part neither here nor there.

If the bears win tonight,then you could possibly see the $1 broken--but maybe the bulls will win:)

[couta1]

Its all because of the Russian troops doing a bit of marching practice if you look a bit deeper otherwise the US markets would be higher but like Mac says in reference to PEB its really of interest only to the Lab rats with poor longterm vision otherwise it business as usual for us normal rats:cool:

[Minerbarejet]

All too complicated and complex for me after getting up and going to dawn parade .....but from what you are saying if the market was open today PEB shareprice could collapse to under $1

But luckily the market isn't open and PEB gets a reprieve ....and we have to see how the Nasdaq goes after hours today, futures for Friday, actual for Friday and after hours for Friday and maybe even futures for Monday before we can use this gauge to see where PEB might go Momday

Then PEB might announce tens of thousands of something on Monday morning
Lol. I suppose we could say nasdaq is down until it exceeds it highest level. Thanks for all the info but for a simple soul closing price at 1600 will do as a daily benchmark for me. Up 21 I see.
Damn- its after hours now
PEB will probably announce the arrival of tens of thousands of emails requesting sales data
Cheers

[skid]

Its all because of the Russian troops doing a bit of marching http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=476969practice if you look a bit deeper otherwise the US markets would be higher but like Mac says in reference to PEB its really of interest only to the Lab rats with poor longterm vision otherwise it business as usual for us normal rats:cool:

I think its more centered on corporate earnings results...Russian troops dont help though--probably makes a bigger difference in Europe

Might be a ''labrat'' day coming up:)

If only we all had that long term vision-It would have been handy a year ago in one way--and a few months ago in another.

[psychic]

I have today written to both the ODT and PEB, will post if I get a response

I received this from email from David Darling this morning:
Nothing yet from ODT


Dear Mike,
Thank you for your email. That is not a statement made by Chris Swann. We do not give out projections on sales at this stage of our business as you can appreciate there are virtually no comparables in the market and it is very difficult to predict the adoption curve for our product. We do have a number of analysts preparing to do research on the market prospects for this product and for our business. These will come out over the course of the year.
I hope that this helps you.
Regards Dave

[baller18]

I received this from email from David Darling this morning:
Nothing yet from ODT


Dear Mike,
Thank you for your email. That is not a statement made by Chris Swann. We do not give out projections on sales at this stage of our business as you can appreciate there are virtually no comparables in the market and it is very difficult to predict the adoption curve for our product. We do have a number of analysts preparing to do research on the market prospects for this product and for our business. These will come out over the course of the year.
I hope that this helps you.
Regards Dave


........ did not expect that...

[psychic]

I'll go for several tens of thousands anyway.....

[Minerbarejet]

Hopefully the share price will now return to the level prior to the statement being issued, now we have that out of the way. Doubt it somehow.

[karen1]

OK, I see your point.

So are we expected to believe that the ODT plucked this statement out of this air though?

Possible, though, we all know journalists are not perfect, nor do they have perfect recall. And we should all know we shouldn't believe everything we read/see/hear.

[baller18]

So turmeric you have not received an email back from DD? But DD has replied to psychic's email.
Replies to one and not others?

[robbo24]

I stand by my original viewpoint, PDFs or it didn't happen.

If DD knows about the incorrect comments then PEB should have cleared this up. It is material information.

[MAC]

I received this from email from David Darling this morning:
Nothing yet from ODT

Dear Mike,
Thank you for your email. That is not a statement made by Chris Swann. We do not give out projections on sales at this stage of our business as you can appreciate there are virtually no comparables in the market and it is very difficult to predict the adoption curve for our product. We do have a number of analysts preparing to do research on the market prospects for this product and for our business. These will come out over the course of the year.
I hope that this helps you.
Regards Dave

Well that is interesting, although I'd like to see the question to the answer, it may be that the ODT do actually have a case to answer in misleading the market.

Pacific Edge have done some market research in the past, as was presented directly by them in 2011. However, it has often been a point of peculiarity for me that they haven’t engaged Edison or a similar investment analyst to work with them on a full valuation work up.

Still, I think they are doing the right thing now, and if this is indeed actually a real email, it is really quite good news as increasingly going forward it will otherwise get harder for analysts to assess.

I've been working in the background over the last couple of weeks to assess the value of Cxbladder(triage), due for launch any day now, and I can honestly say that without direct access to information from Pacific Edge it is something that is quite difficult to do at all with clatity.

[Xerof]

Turm, I think you need to read my initial position on this whole saga again.

I raised the issue of why hasn't there been a retraction of the 'tens of thousands' statement via the NZX, instead of to individuals, after reading Black knats post. Robbo asked for proof from BK, which I then thought was a fair enough point. I have not said anymore since, patiently waiting for a company reply, whilst the machine raged on.

Actually, I thought MAC's QED post was a logical summation of why they hadn't retracted publically, but now even he seems disappointed by the 'Dave' email.

It now seems everyone is where I was on Tuesday morning!

[winner69]

Agreed Turmeric.

To be honest, I don't think that the management and board are up to the task. They've said and done a number of things that (to me) seem quite naive. They seem to be out of their league, and appear to be struggling to make the transition from lab to boardroom. IMHO, this company will only really fly when they get more professional governance and management in place. And that isn't likely to happen until they get bought out. I hope it happens soon, though, as I'm currently nursing quite a bad paper loss on them right now!

New Guy .....now we will get a raft of posts defending these guys. Hancocks is one I can already see smoke coming out his ears.

I have the same doubts as you do and would add in ability to successfully commercialise what they have developed (esp in the US)

I take some comfort in Balance reminding me that the Board acknowledged some of these deficiencies and have beefed up capability with having this US Board

Only my view ....only time will tell how it all turns out

[winner69]

bloody hell this all sounds like another tech company RAK
thanks pychic for posting your reply from dd.

Is that RAK you mention that RAKON company

Charts if you overlay the different timeframes has some similarity

[couta1]

At the end of the day the markets probably already priced in a smaller than anticipated number of tests at around the $1 level,if expectations are exceeded then expect the price to head back toward the $1.50 ish mark so all good aye

[MAC]

Ironically too, in the prospective big picture of what Pacific Edge have told us directly, tens of thousands of tests in 2014 isn’t far off what most analysts seem to be thinking anyway.

Harbour Asset Management have this logarithmic projection indicating around NZ$7.5M in revenues for FY14. At a price point of US$550, this equates to 13,363 sales.

Personally, IMHO I think that this is very much on the high side, but as we know the consensus on this thread is for somewhere between 1,000 and 20,000.
5753

[Minerbarejet]

Which raises the obvious question. How many tests "x" have been done to produce sales "y" for a ratio of "z" which should fall as time goes on.

[MAC]

In my view the company has been totally consistent throughout. They do not make near-term revenue predictions for the reasons given in the email to psychic. They have stuck consistently to the "100m in 5 years" target and any time I have heard anyone from the company on the topic they have said they remain very confident with that number. I have done my our valuation on that basis with a curved shaped growth curve building up at the end of the 5 year period. On that basis the share is currently cheap.

The reported statement from the ODT was always out of context and not the sort of thing the company would say. My view, and I appreciate others will disagree, is that investors should have put it to one side in valuing the company and coming to an investment decision.I think most investors will not even have been aware of it. I think most who were aware of it will have put it to one side - perhaps with the exception of some sharetrader readers/posters. I do not mean that last comment as a criticism of anyone here however I have noticed that sometimes a particular piece of information can receive more emphasis that is deserved in the context of a discussion on sharetrader. Had the ODT article not been posted on here and been heavily relied on by one or two influential posters it would have been lost into the background of the internet.

Very well articulated Black Knat.

It is a very complex industry and company to analyse. The whole industry seems to have a “patient confidentiality” or a guarded kind of feel toward information disclosure, and David Darling seems very much of this ilk. It’s no wonder that the market jumps on every skerric of pertinent information discovered.

Hopefully Pacific Edge will now find a balanced analyst that will do a full open valuation work up and not just play compare the US company metrics.

I’m hopeful too for quarterly reporting, if no one else raises this at the AGM I think I might.

[winner69]

how on earth do they get a logarithmic revenue projection from a standard (logistic or sigmoid) adoption curve?

I'd prefer to see more of a S-curve than Harbours almost straight line

And as you say a series of S-curves ......... PEB > cxbladder

[MAC]

I understand that Edison has been retained and will be covering the company from around mid-year with the assistance of London based analysts with expertise in bio-tech.

Pleased to hear that, I've been quite content with Edison's work on MEL and CRP to date.

[barney]

Do people really make a decision to invest in a company based on a one liner in a newspaper interview ? Having been to the last three or four annual meetings, I can say that it was stated clearly that they did not know what the market penetration curve would look like in getting to the $100m in revenue. DD also makes the same statement in the interview with Andrew Paterson back in October last year.

[Minerbarejet]

Pleased to hear that, I've been quite content with Edison's work on MEL and CRP to date.one thousand pardons if wrong but I thought Edison covered Pacific Edge back a year or so ago. Havent seen anything since on their newsletters. Also I believe they are paid to do analysis by the company involved which may have a tendency for a bit of bias one would think.

[MAC]

one thousand pardons if wrong but I thought Edison covered Pacific Edge back a year or so ago. Havent seen anything since on their newsletters. Also I believe they are paid to do analysis by the company involved which may have a tendency for a bit of bias one would think.

That's a fair concern Miner, but I think Edison's independent reputation and prosperity is worth much more to them than what they would ever take from Pacific Edge, they cover hundreds if not thousands of companies worldwide.

I've been reading their analysis for several years, my feel is that they are a lot more independent than the local brokers who tweak valuations in their own interests and rebadge them as "price targets".

It's a free login if anyone is interested: http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/

[skid]

Do people really make a decision to invest in a company based on a one liner in a newspaper interview ? Having been to the last three or four annual meetings, I can say that it was stated clearly that they did not know what the market penetration curve would look like in getting to the $100m in revenue. DD also makes the same statement in the interview with Andrew Paterson back in October last year.

Then with all due respect,It sounds like they are saying ''we dont know how we are going to get there-but this is where we want to be''

[MAC]

I think the best bet for anyone on the sidelines right now is to take a wait and see approach. There is so much convaluted speculation around the sales report that no one (not even long termers like MAC or Hancock with their excellent research skills) know what number is going to pop up in that report. As such, as always, keep your capital safe from the sharks and play the announcements accordingly (and they said PEB would never be a traders stock again...!).

Well if you would like a view, it hasn’t changed. Anywhere between 1,000 and 5,000 thousand sales would be entirely satisfactory.

There should be some roll over from the 700 patient US user programmes, some independent sales facilitated via the provider networks Pacific Edge already have, FedMed, ACPN and Stratose, and a few I hope from the early stage marketing work carried out to date with the LUG’s.

Although, I do think that most of the new sales staff hired from October last year through March this year won’t yet be fully productive, nor should we expect them to be as new employee’s, they need to become familiar with Pacific Edge, the very complex market, the technology and they most probably don’t have medical or clinical backgrounds. My anticipation is that most of them are still sitting in classes at the back the lab. I’m expecting more of them though at HY15 reporting in November.

In the context of that 260,000 test per annum rated US lab:

1,000 to 5,000 sales at FY14:

Should see a return to fundamental valuation, $1.70 base case. Probably higher because traders like to do things to extreme’s.

5,000 to 20,000 sales at FY14:

Same as above, an early stage result anywhere in this range really has virtually no influence on valuations.

[baller18]

I definitely think 1000 shouldn't be a hard target. Remember the 1st commercial saleS which went through right after the national providers were signed up.

Impossible to speculate what sales are at this stage. But if saleS went through the day after the first national provider was signed up definitely shines a bit of light...


Maybe it was only A sale, but the media probably got it wrong again with the S eh



So its not all doom and gloom as many people thinks.

[baller18]

Since everyone is so into how many sales and etc, etc... At least try and workout what sales may be, even it may be way off!

Here it goes,

First commercial sales went through the day after the first national provider was signed up.
If it was not a sale, I am suspecting it was a group of sales from user groups or whatever, it definitely does not seem it was from one patient as it was saleS. Take the low park figure say 5 sales, and let us assume 5 sales per week.

This is all speculation folks, but lets says 5 sales a week from one national provider, gives us 15 a week, 60 a month, 360 for 6 months... Not including sales from nz or what so ever, I would say 500 sales should be easily meet.

But once again, who knows....

[Snow Leopard]

Hopefully the financials in the preliminary this year will not be the minimalist offerings of prior years and we will not have to wait a further month for a some detail.

Whether they provide sufficient useful information to refine (or even start) a decent fundamental model is another matter.

Then of course there will be the accompanying commentary and what we can extract from that.

Until then we just have the price chart and this thread to watch.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[baller18]

The guy I referred to in post #7861 had done at least 29 tests on his own since June last year - just one individual - he is having tests more than monthly. The estimates of the size of the market do not take account of anything like that frequency of testing. Also see the Mad Butcher - doing monthly testing. 60 month is only 60 individuals on that kind of monitoring program. I think the test number will be way higher than that.

Yes Black knat, but these are not sales, these are tests, when do these users start paying for the tests?

Does anyone know? When do these free tests turn into revenue?

That is why I was suspecting the saleS from the announcement from NZX one day after a national provider was signed up could possibly be from a group of users, rather than a single patient...

[Balance]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/biotech-bubble-catching-analysts-off-guard-20140424-376kl.html

Excerpt : "The company was rocked yesterday (Wednesday) after it failed to win regulatory approval for the release of its painkiller drug, Moxduo, in the US. The stock dropped from 70 cents to 14 cents on the news."

Biotech is not for the fainthearted or those who want short term immediate gratification, month by month or as some on this thread seem to expect. week by week. It has taken PEB a long long while to get to where they are and some of the shareholders with PEB have been there for over 5 years or more. And the gains they are sitting on are still in excess of 400%.

At this rate, one suspects some of the traders here are going to have heart attacks!

[baller18]

R u BE newguy?

[mcdongle]

Quite right I have built in a level of conservatism into my valuation by only valuing the Cxbladder opportunity in the US. There is clearly very significant opportunity for Cxbladder in the rest of the world. The leading bladder cancer specialist in Japan, Mr O Ogawa, for example is on the PEB advisory board. The guy is apparently a very big deal in Japanese hematological circles , so could be a significant opportunity there.

At the Forbar meeting David darling said they were looking at targeting Japan after the US.

[Minerbarejet]

Can someone do a chart on this thread please, seems to be climbing again.:)

[Nigel]

I'm flattered, but no.

Just adding to the conspiracy theory... not suggesting anything, just an observation...

A week or two back, there was an 'accusation' that perhaps NewGuy was a reincarnation of Bright 'n' Early (note the spelling). NewGuy denied the allegation, saying something along the lines of "This Brighton guy sounds interesting. Who was he?". I thought it strange that even though this allegation had only come up once or twice, that NewGuy was sharp enough to correct the spelling from Bright 'n' Early to "Brighton". Maybe s/he just recalled the correct spelling from the initial allegation days earlier. Or maybe s/he was very familiar with the name for other reasons.

I'm having one of my contacts at the GCSB look into all of this.

[robbo24]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/biotech-bubble-catching-analysts-off-guard-20140424-376kl.html

Excerpt : "The company was rocked yesterday (Wednesday) after it failed to win regulatory approval for the release of its painkiller drug, Moxduo, in the US. The stock dropped from 70 cents to 14 cents on the news."

Biotech is not for the fainthearted or those who want short term immediate gratification, month by month or as some on this thread seem to expect. week by week. It has taken PEB a long long while to get to where they are and some of the shareholders with PEB have been there for over 5 years or more. And the gains they are sitting on are still in excess of 400%.

At this rate, one suspects some of the traders here are going to have heart attacks!

This company produces a medicine/painkiller.

CXBladder is a Laboratory Developed Test (LDT).

LDTs are not regulated anywhere near as much as the painkiller.

The line between the two products is bright.


P.S. baller18 is Sparky the Clown

[Balance]

This company produces a medicine/painkiller.

CXBladder is a Laboratory Developed Test (LDT).

LDTs are not regulated anywhere near as much as the painkiller.

The line between the two products is bright.


P.S. baller18 is Sparky the Clown

But of course - I am simply making a point that this sector is not for the fainthearted.

Personally I would not be surprised if PEB falls back to 60 cents (yes, 60 cents) just as I would not be surprised if it goes to $2.00 within the next month.

There are a few hurdles still to jump through and one big shareholder has been bailing out.

[baller18]

I am flattered robbo!!!!

[nextbigthing]

I heard Moosie is actually DD.

[Copper]

I've just read all today's posts and no one seems to feel the share price may drop below $1..Monday may be an interesting day?The number of tests won't have a short term bearing on the priceIMHO.The share price is still looking vulnerable.

[couta1]

...and sparky the clown was Brighton Early (according to earlier posts on this topic).

Served.
But only two of you have one thing in common that is both yourself and Sparky the clown are heavily into Summerset, now hold on there is a pattern here Bright and early in the morning, NewGuy as in Bright and fresh and Summer set as in Bright Summer, okay no more wine tonight couta:scared:

[Copper]

why would it drop below a $1 ?... it found plenty of support there not so long ago and nothing has changed

Just my thoughts.When it was $1.20 or $1.30 a pull back to a buck on those bad days on the Nasdaq created a panic .We then saw a quick reaction upwards and a few posters made a quick 20 cents. Good on em.The price however has drifted to $1.05 or so and I feel if there are weak markets overseas there won't be that group of buyers at a buck that there were the other day. See my earlier post a day or so back.The fact that all today's posts (except Balance.Sorry Balance did not see your post earlier) are all centred on tests or who is who.This has nothing to do with the share price short term.As I said last night and Balance alludes to the same scenario that the price could drop dramatically before it starts it's onward march.When people doubt the management and no one has a clue about how they are getting on then that only adds to the instability.Thats my basis for comment.May prove right or wrong .cheers

[couta1]

Don't worry Copper your be amazed how quickly those lab rats will appear if it goes back to a dollar,lab rats remain well hidden until the right opportunity arises

[Copper]

Don't worry Copper your be amazed how quickly those lab rats will appear if it goes back to a dollar,lab rats remain well hidden until the right opportunity arises
Good on you Couta....I am breeding a lab cat to protect the patch.Your rats may be hidden ,but it's when they finally give up counting tests and decide whether New Guy is a reincarnation of whatever that will prove whether they have the right opportunity to pay a buck or gently fade away to an ever decreasing price level...."..I was always of the opinion "never assume anything".I still feel that on a bad day a dollar will just be a price not a bottom......

[Minerbarejet]

They have indeed. I came across the below image last night from the 2011 capital raising. Shows how they get to $100m in 5 years.

Also gives us something definitive by which to compare how the company thinks they will go with how they actually go. We know sales started 1st of July, so for the 1st of July 2014 we want to see 9,128 tests sold for the company to be 'on track' for their $100m in 5 years.

Agree that this year's end of year reporting won't give us any real indication as to how they are going, as sales momentum takes a bit to build up.

4819
Hope blakecb doesnt mind this being reposted, seems appropriate a few months down the track.
And lo, behold at year 2014 what do we see but "several tens of thousands" being the forecast long before Mr Swann was interviewed by ODT.
My guess is that Mr Swann was actually asked if things were on track to which he confidently replied in the affirmative and ODT went to the website to see how many were involved.

[Minerbarejet]

I quickly chucked this together to estimate the future intrinsic value based on PEB's projected growth in the US. The IV calculated is for US sales only, so you could easily add a lot more to it if you take into account NZ, Aus and Spain sales, as well as their IP. You will see I have assumed NPAT is 50% of gross margin, if anyone has any figures that may be more accurate then let me know and I will chuck them in (and if you think the LT growth rates should be different).

Obviously the sales aren't certain, so the IV calculations could be very wrong. Please don't let these figures blind you, there is still a lot of risk in this stock. The SP could easily shoot down to 20 cents if things don't go to plan.

Warning: if you have a good sized holding in PEB then make sure you're sitting down before you look at the picture.

4387Lets revisit this now we are a year down the track. Hope JTH wont mind but someone did ask about intrinsic values
Note this is for cxbladder only and USA only.
N.B. The number for 2013 is .5% of MP not 1%

[Harvey Specter]

But only two of you have one thing in common that is both yourself and Sparky the clown are heavily into SummersetIf I remember Sparky had over $1m in RYM and always preferred the best of breed (I forget the actual buffett'ism but the reason Buffett invests in coke, not Pepsi).

[couta1]

If I remember Sparky had over $1m in RYM and always preferred the best of breed (I forget the actual buffett'ism but the reason Buffett invests in coke, not Pepsi).
HS he had heaps in Summerset as well,he felt Sum would be a billion dollar company by the end of this year,not to mention heaps in Peb and Dil at a sub $4 purchase price

[robbo24]

HS he had heaps in Summerset as well,he felt Sum would be a billion dollar company by the end of this year,not to mention heaps in Peb and Dil at a sub $4 purchase price

Sparky also said peb at 2.50 by years end

[couta1]

Sparky also said peb at 2.50 by years end
Let's hold that clown to it then $2.50 sounds pretty darn good

[Bobcat.]

What's your appetite for risk?

a) high: buy at $1.00/1.01 (anticipating a double bottom) and hold.
b) med: wait for a higher low before buying either later same day or the next morning (with a stop loss say 2 cents below that low)
c) low: wait for both a higher low and a higher high before buying the following day (with a stop loss just below that previous day's low).

Of course the potential reward associated with each of the above varies - typically the more risk averse the trade, the lower its potential reward, and visa versa.

[MAC]

What's your appetite for risk?

a) high: buy at $1.00/1.01 (anticipating a double bottom) and hold.
b) med: wait for a higher low before buying either later same day or the next morning (with a stop loss say 2 cents below that low)
c) low: wait for both a higher low and a higher high before buying the following day (with a stop loss just below that previous day's low).

Of course the potential reward associated with each of the above varies - typically the more risk averse the trade, the lower its potential reward, and visa versa.

Bobcat, by the way you apply the term ‘risk’ you could actually be mistaken for having developed a perception from having not done enough research on the company, market or sector. If so, it would be no wonder that just following a squiggly line and hoping it will go up would seem to be an inherent risk in itself.

I would suggest that your use of the word ‘risk’ should actually be directly substituted by the inverse of ‘ignorance is bliss’.

When a stock is so absolutely undervalued as this one is at present, and we are looking at what is probably the best entry point for 2014, whether you buy here or buy there, a few cents seems to matter little in the big picture.

We may all very well look back at anywhere between $1.05 and $1.50 as having been a jolly good buy.

[noodles]

I would suggest that your use of the work ‘risk’ should actually be directly substituted by the inverse of ‘ignorance is bliss’.

Give the guy a break. This website is called "Sharetrader", not "ShareBuyAndHolder":)

[alistair85]

Love the above comment! Damn straight. Good on you bobcat. Always like your posts

[baller18]

Careful MAC, there are people who make a living off squiggly line following (myself to be included very soon).

I wouldn't be calling those who bought @ 30, sold at 70, rebought @ 50, sold at 80 (or 1.20), rebought at 1.00 then sold at 1.70 idjits would you now? They've made a lot more money than just buying and holding wouldn't you agree? And about to make a lot more when the downtrend ends. We also do FA and listen very intently to you guys who put the hard yards in and try to give back with our own hard yards to help those who want to understand why a stock is moving on no news. If you don't understand it it doesn't mean you have to denigrate it...

Trader is no idiot moosie, I am a believer in FA + TA = RA. But the trader making more money than someone who bought and hold? Def not, the scenario you have provided means someone would have traded this stock to perfection which would be impossible... Not to mention all the tax on it, if the trader is paying tax that is.

Someone like hancocks who have hold onto it since 9 cents... I highly doubt there is a trader of PEB who have made more capital gains than the person who has been holding onto PEB since 9 cents.

[couta1]

Give the guy a break. This website all called "Sharetrader", not "ShareBuyAndHolder":)
Noodles as someone pointed out on another thread we are all traders the difference being how often one sells or buys whether it be daily or once a year,traders with no investment strategy(Or Lab rats as Mac calls them) can make money but only 2% are truly sucessful statistically the rest would be better off just investing and collecting divvys or going long on a stock.At the end of the day over a five year period its the difference between your purchase price and sale price that really matters plus any dividends received, think about those that bought Xro at $1 and sold at $45,they would have made heaps more than any frequent trader. However frequent trading is fun and addictive so appealing to many,personally if your on a resonable income,i see no point in being a full time lab rat,your better of investing but for those sick of their current day job or people nearing or in retirement i can see the appeal,ive certainly lost a lot a lot of money jumping in and out of stocks but thats how we learn best by making our own mistakes having not listened to others advice ie the hard way

[craic]

Noodles as someone pointed out on another thread we are all traders the difference being how often one sells or buys whether it be daily or once a year,traders with no investment strategy(Or Lab rats as Mac calls them) can make money but only 2% are truly sucessful statistically the rest would be better off just investing and collecting divvys or going long on a stock.At the end of the day over a five year period its the difference between your purchase price and sale price that really matters plus any dividends received, think about those that bought Xro at $1 and sold at $45,they would have made heaps more than any frequent trader. However frequent trading is fun and addictive so appealing to many,personally if your on a resonable income,i see no point in being a full time lab rat,your better of investing but for those sick of their current day job or people nearing or in retirement i can see the appeal,ive certainly lost a lot a lot of money jumping in and out of stocks but thats how we learn best by making our own mistakes having not listened to others advice ie the hard way
Been doing this for a while now - and making good money. You need a stock that is volatile and highly traded - millions every day - and steel balls. Find the Daily lows and buy and sell on the highs. If you have a big-enough holding, two or three cents difference will give a good return. Profit is 30% tax, 30% reserve to cover your mistakes and 40% to the back pocket or wherever. Sometimes you can trade several times a week and sometimes you may have to wait weeks to get in or out but the profit is there for the taking - PEB is not a good bet for this.

[SimonHouse]

Careful MAC, there are people who make a living off squiggly line following (myself to be included very soon).

I wouldn't be calling those who bought @ 30, sold at 70, rebought @ 50, sold at 80 (or 1.20), rebought at 1.00 then sold at 1.70 idjits would you now? They've made a lot more money than just buying and holding wouldn't you agree? And about to make a lot more when the downtrend ends. We also do FA and listen very intently to you guys who put the hard yards in and try to give back with our own hard yards to help those who want to understand why a stock is moving on no news. If you don't understand it it doesn't mean you have to denigrate it...

Sorry for cluttering up a biotech thread with this, but I'd be very interested to hear how Moosie is going to do day trading. It would be keen to see

1. What his setup is (software, hardware, subscription services)
2. What his theory/technical tools are
3. What his profits and losses are

Please forgive me for being cynical, but I understand that Moosie is a museum/historian of some kind, and aged around 30, without a background in finance or similar. I would be interested to know what kind of "edge" he has over the big boys with instant live data, multiple screens conveying large amounts of information, and much larger budgets that enable them to "make markets".

Perhaps Moosie might be keen to start a thread on this on the investment strategy page? I would be delighted to be proven wrong, but I just don't know how the "little guy" can beat the big boys on day trading. The successful technical based traders I see here on Sharetrader seem to hold positions over periods of time rather than just mere days (thinking of Hoop, for example).

Anyway, good luck Moosie. I hope your PEB holdings deliver you some nice upside (if you are holding). It seems to be the stock that sits around doing very little until there's a big piece of news that rockets it up. Hopefully the next news event isn't far away!

[blackcap]

Traders: I challenge one of you to share a live log of your trades and their profitability etc. In my experience, its VERY hard to consistently make money over the longer term, not least because of transactions costs.

And nigh on impossible if you require income (for living) from your trading activities.

[couta1]

Been doing this for a while now - and making good money. You need a stock that is volatile and highly traded - millions every day - and steel balls. Find the Daily lows and buy and sell on the highs. If you have a big-enough holding, two or three cents difference will give a good return. Profit is 30% tax, 30% reserve to cover your mistakes and 40% to the back pocket or wherever. Sometimes you can trade several times a week and sometimes you may have to wait weeks to get in or out but the profit is there for the taking - PEB is not a good bet for this.
Craic your a hobby trader in retirement trading telecom,I understand where your at and have successfully traded telecom myself a few times but this is not really the point I was trying to make ie Long term holders of fundamentally sound stocks will make more than frequent traders in the long run,this has been statistically proven,off course this doesn't allow for the fun and adrenalin side of frequent trading

[nextbigthing]

Sorry for the off topic post, however this does seem to be 'on topic' for this thread at the moment.

My thoughts on the realities of trading for a living....

Say you want $1000 a week in the hand to live on... hardly living like a royal but should be comfortable enough.

$1000 + $500 for tax... so you need $1500/week.

Lets say you trade $10000 a pop and make +2% per trade. I have chosen $10000 as it is the first point where standard brokerage becomes most economic, and $10000 is a smaller amount to increase the chances of having that liquidity in the stock and minimising the risk by using smaller amounts.

So $10000 x 0.02 = $200 a trade. Minus $60 brokerage (30+30) leaves $140

$1500 / $140 = approx 11 trades per week.

So that means you need to pick just over 2 stocks a day that are going to go up by 2% and time it perfectly.

Obviously you can change all the variables, eg only go for a 1% rise but then the frequency at which you need to successfully trade increases accordingly and becomes less likely. Also, obviously you would have $10000 x a few lots so that you could be in multiple stocks at any one time.

The above example doesn't allow writing off brokerage costs and claiming other expenses, however it also doesn't allow for the ones you get wrong! So call that even.

Looking at the top gainers the other day, there were only about 5 stocks greater than a 2% increase, and this is especially the case if you minus out penny dreadfuls that rose say 5% on a $1000 turnover which is no use. I realise you can trade intra-day and get more 2% movements but again, you're going to have to time it to perfection.

Some people may think 2 trades a day is easy. I personally think 2 trades perfectly timed every single day in NZ with no mistakes would be very hard.

[craic]

Craic your a hobby trader in retirement trading telecom,I understand where your at and have successfully traded telecom myself a few times but this is not really the point I was trying to make ie Long term holders of fundamentally sound stocks will make more than frequent traders in the long run,this has been statistically proven,off course this doesn't allow for the fun and adrenalin side of frequent trading
I'm not stupid enough to publish my finances here but I can say that our, my wife and I, live on National Super of about $550 per week and what I can make using my wits trading - we have no other source of income. Last year we had our holidays in Kuala Lumpor, The Cameron Highlands and Penang. This year it will be Queensland, already bought and paid for. We also did a tour around the North Island, staying in motels and had trips to Auckland and Wellington. A sum of money, under a grand, that my son left here for emergencies on his big OE has now been grown to seventy five grand, partly because I am more careful with his money than I am with my own. I will now go down the club and have a couple of pints and waste a few dollars on the horses and leave this topic to those who can stand the hot air that CNU has generated.

[MAC]

There was a quote provided from DD last October in relation to the proposed expansion into Asia “as early as next year”, so could be this year or perhaps sometime later. Though, hopefully it will be an entry by Pacific Edge directly rather than through Healthscope who have operations already in Singapore and Malaysia.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11144239

That stat pack provided via Andrew Patterson at around the same time left me a little curious too, it does suggest that at least some market research or consideration must have already been undertaken;

http://www.interest.co.nz/business/67034/andrew-patterson-talks-david-darling-pacific-edge-about-making-key-bio-tech-partnersh



Sector:
Technology / Bio-med


Founded:
2001


Biggest market:
USA


Biggest potential market:
Asia


Staff:
31 (19 Dunedin / 2 Australia / 10 USA)


Market cap:
NZ$ 410 million


Turnover target:
NZ $100 mln within 5 years


Ownership:
Publicly listed


Profitable:
No


Recent highlights:
Securing two major customers in the US, launching a rights issue and being named as the supreme winner at the NZ Innovation Awards


Website:
www.pacificedge.co.nz (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/)

[mcdongle]

Was a timeframe mentioned?

No timeframe but Maybe​ new lab in Singapore for Asia

[baller18]

And yes, for all those that already guessed, I am Brighton Early.
lol!!!! hahahahaha

[youngatheart]

Welcome back. I for one really appreciate your candid and straight up analyses to not lose sight of the bigger picture :)

[youngatheart]

Sorry for the off topic post, however this does seem to be 'on topic' for this thread at the moment.

My thoughts on the realities of trading for a living....

Say you want $1000 a week in the hand to live on... hardly living like a royal but should be comfortable enough.

$1000 + $500 for tax... so you need $1500/week.

Lets say you trade $10000 a pop and make +2% per trade. I have chosen $10000 as it is the first point where standard brokerage becomes most economic, and $10000 is a smaller amount to increase the chances of having that liquidity in the stock and minimising the risk by using smaller amounts.

So $10000 x 0.02 = $200 a trade. Minus $60 brokerage (30+30) leaves $140

$1500 / $140 = approx 11 trades per week.

So that means you need to pick just over 2 stocks a day that are going to go up by 2% and time it perfectly.

Obviously you can change all the variables, eg only go for a 1% rise but then the frequency at which you need to successfully trade increases accordingly and becomes less likely. Also, obviously you would have $10000 x a few lots so that you could be in multiple stocks at any one time.

The above example doesn't allow writing off brokerage costs and claiming other expenses, however it also doesn't allow for the ones you get wrong! So call that even.

Looking at the top gainers the other day, there were only about 5 stocks greater than a 2% increase, and this is especially the case if you minus out penny dreadfuls that rose say 5% on a $1000 turnover which is no use. I realise you can trade intra-day and get more 2% movements but again, you're going to have to time it to perfection.

Some people may think 2 trades a day is easy. I personally think 2 trades perfectly timed every single day in NZ with no mistakes would be very hard.

Well done. A very insightful piece of analysis. This is why I value Sharetrader!

[robbo24]

Don't forget to claim depreciation on your assets like chair, desk, computer.

An expenses like Internet, heating, coffee, tissues.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

May I suggest that people take this whole TA vs. FA debate to the Investment Strategies forum. It has been coming up several times a week in several threads and I'm sure I'm not the only one getting sick of it. There is more than one way to skin a cat, with some ways working much better than others for different people.

[blobbles]

Agree with Johnny, this is tiring, off topic and polluting. Take the discussion to its proper place please.

[Minerbarejet]

I think it is but also truely believe the general market will be disapointed with the sale's traction at the next report and it may go quite a bit lower.
Perhaps the market has already plugged in the anticipated disappointments at the current levels. However, we DONT know for sure what the sales are yet and are unlikely to find out until released officially at the end of May. Presumably there will be enough speculation on this thread for the next few weeks to keep us all entertained. Have the feeling its going to be a long month. And what happens when its released? Debate will start about what the sales figures will be in november.
Time for a cuppa:eek2:
Chelsea bun, anyone.

[skid]

I cant believe that I have read some of yesterdays posts and all of todays posts ...and no one has mentioned this
http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/25/investing/stocks-markets/index.html
(Nasdaq Biotecks down 2.4%)


Caution required

$1 could be threatened on Monday IMO

[craic]

"You gotta know when to hold, Know when to fold. Know when to walk away etc............." as the song says. Blew about $100+ on the horses today at Cambridge until i woke from a guinness induced slumber to read that my $20 bet on Lauren Tate in the eight race had returned me $560 for a win and place. Full time traders play the entire market - I trade one company and at 76 have learned to deal with stress. Three of the people I drink with have died in the lat month - none of them were traders.

[skid]

Well your certainly better off than the other 3, whether you hold ,fold ,or walk away.:)

Congrats on your win

[skid]

I would think you would have to be ''pretty onto it'' to trade full time.

But holding full time without taking note of warning signs is not such a great tactic--Those that bailed awhile back when $1.70 went to about $1.50 are most likely happy and will have a chance to get back in to their favorite company on better terms.

[craic]

With your experience Craig would you advocate full time trading as a full time income source. Without knowing your circumstances other than your age and the fact you trade one stock, it seems to me what you do probably works quite well, but I imagine its more of a supplementary income source as opposed to a full time one?? Interested in what advice you'd give to younger people looking to trade full time as their primary source of income?

Congrats on the horse by the way :)
I have two lots to a total of 150g. I have been up and down through the NZX and made a lot of mistakes. The answer to your question is - don't. My mortgage is paid, my kids educated and even if I lost my shirt tomorrow, I would have a pension to feed me so the stress doesn't really exist.

[blobbles]

Some idiot gives me negative reputation for suggesting people stay on topic?

Guess I will have to stop reading ST or contributing, the forum seems to be getting more and more like the wild west. But honestly its becoming tiresome and a waste of time to read through all the chaff, no wonder important contributors are also leaving. Why can't people just put things in their proper place? Ahh well.

[nextbigthing]

As we all are, I'm trying to work out where this stock is headed, but also why it has dropped so significantly.

If everything goes according to plan long term (multiple products earning revenue) then it has got to be worth something more like $10 for example, making $1.70 look cheap and $1.00 ridiculously cheap.

2014 is a big year for PEB where it is expected to start making some headway. Just because they haven't announced the first 100 000 sales yet doesn't mean things aren't on track for CXBladder. It will take time for things to change and we're not even half way through the year yet. It's early days and some people are being a bit impatient. So far everything would suggest we should be buying up large.

But then look at the shareprice falling away. It was in only a slight downtrend when the CEO, Chairman and Director sold out. After they did, it went into a much steeper downtrend from $1.60 to $1.00 odd. Three holders in the know selling out is not a good sign.

This would perhaps suggest we all should be selling up large.

Looking further into though, from what I can make of it, Anatole Masfen sold out completely. Swann sold around half. But DD only sold 100 000 of his 3mil holding. So what on earth does that mean? Very conflicting information there, obviously DD is still very happy with the progress of the company, otherwise he would also have sold much more. He's still in for the ride which is positive. Surely if they knew something that was causing them to sell out, they would had to have disclosed it by now?

So there's a bit of conflicting information there. If everything is going to plan then the current price is a steal. But why did Masfen sell 100% if it's so rosy?

If Masfens selling out can be legitimately explained then IMHO this is a screaming buy as Mac says. The future is bright. If it can't then perhaps it is only worthy of a small spec holding.

NBT

[nextbigthing]

MAC, what are your thoughts behind Masfens complete sell down? I personally don't buy the argument 'they have better options at the moment'. If PEB are on track there wouldn't be many (if any) better options. I think it's a significant issue to address/that needs explaining.

Disc hold and still think they're on track. If I see any of those directors buy up again I'm all in. Like road runner all in.

[MAC]

MAC, what are your thoughts behind Masfens complete sell down? I personally don't buy the argument 'they have better options at the moment'. If PEB are on track there wouldn't be many (if any) better options. I think it's a significant issue to address/that needs explaining.

Disc hold and still think they're on track. If I see any of those directors buy up again I'm all in. Like road runner all in.

Who knows, I don't hold the Masfen’s amongst the top investor set to be honest.

They have been in Pacific Edge since almost the get go and invest a high percentage of their portfolio in off market ventures, I could imagine that they are simply rebalancing and recycling as usual.

They sold 10M shares last year at circa 60-70c when they could have held for less than a year and got two to three times that. That suggests to me that they were rebalancing back to within their diversification limit, probably have just done the same this year.

From last year: http://www.nbr.co.nz/peter-masfen

regards, Mac

[Minerbarejet]

Look at what happened last year and the timing.
Pre announcement 45-60c
After announcement up up and away.
Rights issue was already set up and then issued at 55c and considerably oversubscribed.
D Darling said at the time that he was surprised at the share price action
That 55c is crucial because it indicates what the company thought the shares would be worth roughly at the time and at that would be the price the punters would get on board.
Currently we sit at around double that with no further major news and nov sales of next to zero
So whats the problem?
I believe it was stated that D Darling was unaware of others selling and he had some home additions to pay for.
Looking forward we have an upcoming Full Year report, AGM, product rollouts, more signings perhaps and feedback from all the seminars and conferences, advice on Spain, NZ and Australia.
Interesting few months ahead.
Sunday afternoon ramble - open to correction :)

[geo]

"You gotta know when to hold, Know when to fold. Know when to walk away etc............." as the song says. Blew about $100+ on the horses today at Cambridge until i woke from a guinness induced slumber to read that my $20 bet on Lauren Tate in the eight race had returned me $560 for a win and place. Full time traders play the entire market - I trade one company and at 76 have learned to deal with stress. Three of the people I drink with have died in the lat month - none of them were traders.

Craic what the hell do you and your mates drink, have you thought of changing it.:)

[JimHickey]

That 55c is crucial because it indicates what the company thought the shares would be worth roughly at the time and at that would be the price the punters would get on board.

This is so incorrect its not even funny. People need to learn the mechanics of what they are talking about rather than spouting complete bull ****.

[Minerbarejet]

This is so incorrect its not even funny. People need to learn the mechanics of what they are talking about rather than spouting complete bull ****.
Please enlighten us. Would you have rather they offered them at the prevailing share price at the time or thereabouts?
As I said open to correction but would prefer an explanation of what your differing view might be.
Cheers

[skid]

Pacific Edge are very much undervalued at FY14 $1.70

A DCF workup for a valuation of just Cxbladder provides an outcome at that level alone even with a conservative criteria set. The actual valuation of the overall company, with all that intellectual property, the patents and those pipeline products, some of which are already through clinical trials, is very much higher than that again.

This analysis is easily repeatable by most competent analysts and as always myself and others are happy to share and compare research offline with those who have a genuine interest in the company.

The vast majority of shareholders in PEB are long term, the market is down simply because some short termers have drawn a bizarre linkage between a ‘frothy’ nasdaq way over there in the US and an undervalued very prospective company here, it’s a behavioural study in itself – lab rat’s.

I’m anticipating that Pacific Edge by bringing Edison on board will provide some further confidence for those who don’t routinely research, run their own valuations and assess for themselves. It’s presumably being done by Pacific Edge for this very reason, to provide the market with clearer signals and an open valuation.

What we have here at present IMHO is the best entry point on the NZX year to date, enjoy.

DISC: Screaming Buy (no change)

Well Mac-I believe the overseas markets do have an influence(not saying its fair)
And you believe its simply because some short termers have drawn a bizarre linkage between the 'frothy'Nasdaq way over in the US.

I guess the only way to find out is to see if Mondays SP rockets or falls---Watch this space

I have a genuine interest in the company--Should i buy in a downtrend and lose money to show my loyalty?

There was an article in the herald I was reading and came across a sentence that stuck with me. Towards the end they said ''we're not knocking the company-just the valuation.''

Right now growth companies are getting punished--valuations dont always make sense

[winner69]

Is this Edison the same Edison who seem to be regularly updating a pretty wishy washy report on SNK (see SNK website)

Hope PEB gets a better coverage than that

[nextbigthing]

Can't for the life of me see any reason to sell at current levels.

Some would suggest the reason to sell is that it's in a well established downtrend and that you can buy back cheaper later on....

Some would say not to do this as you may miss out after an announcement....

[nextbigthing]

Who knows, I don't hold the Masfen’s amongst the top investor set to be honest.

They have been in Pacific Edge since almost the get go and invest a high percentage of their portfolio in off market ventures, I could imagine that they are simply rebalancing and recycling as usual.

They sold 10M shares last year at circa 60-70c when they could have held for less than a year and got two to three times that. That suggests to me that they were rebalancing back to within their diversification limit, probably have just done the same this year.

From last year: http://www.nbr.co.nz/peter-masfen

regards, Mac

Thanks MAC, that sounds reasonable.

So IF management selling down is legitimately explainable and nothing to worry about, then that leaves two options, either the price was too high to begin with, or it is now way undervalued.

IF everything goes to plan then $1.70 IMHO is no where near overvalued, meaning it wasn't overpriced. That would then mean PEB has been way oversold and the current price is a steal and that the risk of being out is great than the risk of losing a few cents for buying into a downtrend now.

Please note the IF's

Disc hold.

[baller18]

This thing has probably been beaten to death now, but for the sake of some sort of closure (from my perspective anyway), I just thought I would post to say I received a reply from DD today. From memory it is word for word the same as the one Psychic posted a few days back - i.e that Chris Swann did NOT make this statement. I did ask that in the situation that the statement was in fact not made, why PEB chose not to clear this up at the time, but received no response.

Far seriously, and they've had all this time to clear it up and they haven't!!! Not a good look from the management side of things!!!!

Wonder what hancock thinks of the projected 10k - 20k sales he was expecting!!!

[Schrodinger]

Divide that $1.70 valuation by 10 ($45M MC) based on limited commercialisation. Adjust accordingly when they can prove sales.

[Minerbarejet]

:)Maybe PEB has taken off again and blown a fuse on the main board at nzx


Btw how do you like my feijoa (pic) - meal on its own.

[nextbigthing]

so how many have invested in the company with the 10's of thousands of sale's as part of their reasoning...... me thinks a lot more than you think

Snap, possibly all the people above $1. Now it's sitting around $1.10, hopefully low sales has already been factored into the price.

[Minerbarejet]

so how many have invested in the company with the 10's of thousands of sale's as part of their reasoning...... me thinks a lot more than you think eventually, as planned. Fully expect things to be slow to start and they may not hit their planned goals. 100 million a year
will be giving a pretty tidy profit as will 90,80,70,60,50 mill. Think the key is where and when will they cross the line to profitability.

[Xerof]

Are we to be told individually? When is it my turn?

posted a week ago.

Since then, another two shareholders have had individual responses......I might send an email too, it's a very exclusive club

where is it posted that Masfen has sold completely? Seems more fiction than fact.

Our smoke and mirrors man has been selling though

[Lorne Ranger]

Scientifically you need at least three points to draw a straight line, more to indicate a curve, so I agree this first commercialised quarter sales obsession just seems impatient. I know the SP seems a bit fragile right now, but I assume those with stocks here are in for the long term, so whats the rush to see an instant explosion in sales? I dont get it.

[Bobcat.]

Back in. The fact that PEB's price has drifted down this morning rather than plummeted is IMO a good sign, especially with substantial support at $1.00 even. Happy to hold.

BC

[MAC]

Yawn is correct,

here’s the exciting DCF sensitivity analysis based on consensus sales expectations of between 1,000 and 20,000 sales as provided on this forum;

1,000 sales: Valuation $1.71

5,000 sales: Valuation $1.71

20,000 sales: Valuation $1.72

It’s the commentary that’s important, no reason why a confident affirmation that Pacific Edge are on track against the US commercialisation programme shouldn't see a drift back to fair valuation, …. probably higher if the lab rat's do what they do.

[NZSilver]

down she goes......

[Minerbarejet]

down she goes......
Boing?:):)
Bobcat's in so we'll be right now until 1.20

[robbo24]

Not quite the wholesale panic some were expecting?

[couta1]

Not quite the wholesale panic some were expecting?
No and looks set to come back up now:cool:

[Bobcat.]

Boing?:):)
Bobcat's in so we'll be right now until 1.20

More likely either around 1.10 or well, well beyond 1.20.

I'll now hold most of what I've just purchased longer term in anticipation of the latter...perhaps trading a little into the dips and troughs along the way.

Good value at this price IMO.

[couta1]

More likely either around 1.10 or well, well beyond 1.20.

I'll now hold most of what I've just purchased longer term in anticipation of the latter...perhaps trading a little into the dips and troughs along the way.

Good value at this price IMO.
Not to mention a good Moral and Ethical investment aye Bobcat:cool:

[Bobcat.]

Not to mention a good Moral and Ethical investment aye Bobcat:cool:

Aye, that too -- part of the value proposition, IMO.

Timing though is also important. One without the other is money poorly spent.

[JimHickey]

I dont know a lot about TA but that seems like a pretty significant bounce (large buyer depth to)

[Balance]

I dont know a lot about TA but that seems like a pretty significant bounce (large buyer depth to)

A few TA cats on hot tin roof jumping off at $1.00.

[robbo24]

I thought you told everyone this morning that it would crash down through $1. Make your mind up!

Hey come on NewGuy, it's moosie_900 not nostradamus.

He's like a stock weathervane. He knows which way the wind is going, not the way it will go.

And he creaks and squeaks as he spins around and around and around...

[aGuyCalledBob]

Hey come on NewGuy, it's moosie_900 not nostradamus.

He's like a stock weathervane. He knows which way the wind is going, not the way it will go.

And he creaks and squeaks as he spins around and around and around...

yet he constantly gives bad advise. I really dont understand why. wrong time and time again...
Anyone taking advise from a moose deserves to lose their money, as I'm sure they will

[couta1]

yet he constantly gives bad advise. I really dont understand why. wrong time and time again...
Anyone taking advise from a moose deserves to lose their money, as I'm sure they will
But then again a lot of people have made money via Moosies help with Xro,myself included,I'm in the red with my remaining Xro because I didn't sell at $45 and buy back cheaper ie Got caught with pants down

[robbo24]

Back to PEB.

In my view a solid close above $1 adds teeth to the proposition of $1 support.

We may even see a hammer if it closes high enough.

I think there is some weight to the NBI and Nasdaq connection with PEB but it is not 100% determinative of SP movements.

I think long term holders are unlikely to care too much if they were previously entrenched in the stock. Nothing new on which to change their belief that PEB is a good investment for their money.

Anyone who invests based on moosie_900's one liners (long OR short, NewGuy) is a dope to begin with.

[baller18]

But then again a lot of people have made money via Moosies help with Xro,myself included,I'm in the red with my remaining Xro because I didn't sell at $45 and buy back cheaper ie Got caught with pants down

lol serious? you should invest your funds in the moosiefund LTD...

[skid]

If there wasnt some weight to the NBI and Nasdac connection then this major fall would have been only due to PEB itself and I honestly dont think most would believe that--Like it or not ,its has an influence IMO.
Tonight's market will be pivotal for the US Tecks and Biotecks,and if you believe its not just all coincidence, for PEB as well,one way or another.

[skid]

Moosie didnt cause the fall---whats the difference between his predictions and those that say its a screaming buy? And undervalued at $1.70?

[Minerbarejet]

Moosie didnt cause the fall---whats the difference between his predictions and those that say its a screaming buy? And undervalued at $1.70?
Somewhere in the middle, sounds about right. $1.35

[winner69]

The nzx50 tracking funds having much luck with their 'new investment' are they

The one that got tossed out seems to be up 13% since

Oh well that's how the cookie crumbles

[Minerbarejet]

Sounds like a pretty flamboyant call to me Miner ;)We'll see how it flaming goes.

[psychic]

I guess they have been selling down as the mcap has reduced? Wonder how much affect this has had?

[JimHickey]

Id agree with Hancock's range assessments

[Lorne Ranger]

Hi Hancocks

yep I dont disagree with your analysis or your view of possible results. But I also think whatever the results are, be they 1000 or 10000 it is still just a single point, and it is too early to predict a trajectory. BUt I certainly accept 10000 is a better starting point than 1000 :cool:. I also appreciate your efforts to gain clarity on what any result may mean, so thanks.

[winner69]

Nasdaq down more than 1% from its highs for the day......not that positive

[winner69]

disaster averted .... nasdaq back onto green = PEB getting back to 120

[LegendOfRiot]

PEB hasn't been tracking the NASDAQ or NBI recently so it's anyone's guess as to which direction it's going today.

[robbo24]

Nasdaq down more than 1% from its highs for the day......not that positive


disaster averted .... nasdaq back onto green = PEB getting back to 120

Hahaha... Who do you sound like??

[Minerbarejet]

Wont it be wonderful when PEB actually gets listed on the nasdaq. Wont be 1.04 then.:)

[nextbigthing]

Wont it be wonderful when PEB actually gets listed on the nasdaq. Wont be 1.04 then.:)

Quit it with the DIL comparisons please you're scaring me

[skid]

Looks like Nasdaq and NBI only just in the red(call it even)
Share price,like sales, are just a point on a line.
If the sales turn out to be a lower point on the line,then theres no reason to think the SP will not also be a lower point on the line
In terms of US markets,guess the question is -will it take good news ,or just the absence of bad news to bring a significant rise in SP
IMO it will take a solid lift on Nasdaq or announcement to see 1.20

[Balance]

Fascinating looking at the latest top shareholders' list of PEB.

My sense is that it's time to top up.

[Longhaul]

Fascinating looking at the latest top shareholders' list of PEB.

My sense is that it's time to top up.

Sorry if you've been asked this before but is that list freely available? If so where do we look for it? Ta

[robbo24]

Fascinating looking at the latest top shareholders' list of PEB.

My sense is that it's time to top up.


Sorry if you've been asked this before but is that list freely available? If so where do we look for it? Ta

Yeah Balance, share the goods. Otherwise you're getting the DGH shoulder tap as well.

[nextbigthing]

Fascinating looking at the latest top shareholders' list of PEB.

My sense is that it's time to top up.

Care to provide a little more detail/explanation as to which part you're liking?

[Mista_Trix]

Interesting reading of latest share register - basically one huge seller.

Plenty more to go. :(


Fascinating looking at the latest top shareholders' list of PEB.

My sense is that it's time to top up.

You cant make quotes this polar and not give us an inkling as to why you're thinking what you're thinking, these statements are very leading just on their own.

[Balance]

Yeah Balance, share the goods. Otherwise you're getting the DGH shoulder tap as well.

Haha - I have PM two others with my explanation but to clear this out once and for all :

The shareholders lists are public information but I don't know how you get it save as I do via a broker.

They get it via their information systems (and they pay for the system and information) and the lists are updated at least once monthly.

I cannot post or share the actual list itself - doing so will guarantee I will never get it again in future!

Re PEB - it shows that a major seller (around 5m shares sold) stopped selling from end of March. Suspect it is a portfolio rebalancing exercise they still hold around 10m shares.

Meanwhile, institutions are adding to their shareholdings.

All the other major shareholders (Tindall, Masfen, Harbour etc) are stable.

I think the trading we are seeing now are TA traders in action - can see this through the brokers' nominee accounts increasing and decreasing in shareholdings.

[Dentie]

Haha - I have PM two others with my explanation but to clear this out once and for all :

The shareholders lists are public information but I don't know how you get it save as I do via a broker.

They get it via their information systems (and they pay for the system and information) and the lists are updated at least once monthly.

I cannot post or share the actual list itself - doing so will guarantee I will never get it again in future!

Re PEB - it shows that a major seller (around 5m shares sold) stopped selling from end of March. Suspect it is a portfolio rebalancing exercise they still hold around 10m shares.

Meanwhile, institutions are adding to their shareholding.

I think the trading we are seeing now are TA traders in action.

http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/393C994092C20AD93F62C793955E9437

[robbo24]

If you have Windows 8 then load the finance app then add PEB and you get to see the buying and selling percentages of the institutions.

[baller18]

maybe, just maybe yesterdays hammer will play out...

[baller18]

maybe, just maybe yesterdays hammer will play out...

[Bobcat.]

Wouldn't be celebrating yet, might just be another bulltrap. $1.10 looks pretty solid now. Good overseas tomorrow might see a breakthrough of this though...

Are you holding, Moose?

Anything above 115 this week is of course bullish, and very promising for a breakthrough 120 on its 3rd test.

Conversely (less likely now IMO) is a third test of 100.

[warthog]

Yeah $2 never far away, right?

[nextbigthing]

Tis a wait and see game. In.the mean time, traders having a field day!

Aren't you a trader Moosie? Shouldn't you be having a field day too instead of watching from the sidelines...