PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Minerbarejet]

Nasdaq biotech up 2.68% hanging around the 2394 mark, been over 2400 twice
All go today:)

[winner69]

Mac

What discount rate do you use in your 170 valuation

For PEB I use 15% as that is the sort of long term annual return I expect to compensate for 'risk'

[MAC]

Mac

What discount rate do you use in your 170 valuation

For PEB I use 15% as that is the sort of long term annual return I expect to compensate for 'risk'

Winner, I'm generally starting to raise WACC across the board now, interest rates are on the rise and the cost of capital may start to increase a little going forward, I haven’t been doing formal BETA calc's thus far in this cycle but may start to do so now.

My feel is a WACC of 11.25 to 11.75% should be fine for PEB for HY15.

[MAC]

MAC, that WACC is way too small IMHO. 15% to 17% would be far more reasonable given the early stage of the company's life and inherent risks of the sector

Yesterday on the NTL thread I applied a WACC of 13%, quite high for this stage in the cycle but it's a company really still at a pre-feasibility stage, it still requires capitalisation and has yet to establish as an operational business. Noting that PWC for instance use a WACC of 11.2% for NTL which I consider to be a little low for the company at this stage.

Pacific Edge has completed capitalisation, laboratories are constructed, startup capital has been spent on time and on budget, they are becoming an operational business, guidance is that they will become profitable this calendar year, cxbladder should probably become a nice cashflow cash cow from FY15.

Generally PWC guidelines may provide some insight for you as good as any;

http://www.pwc.co.nz/appreciating-value/pwc-wacc-formula/

http://www.pwc.co.nz/PWC.NZ/media/pdf-documents/appreciating-value/pwc-appreciating-value-edition-4-september-2013.pdf

Good luck

[Balance]

MAC, that WACC is way too small IMHO. 15% to 17% would be far more reasonable given the early stage of the company's life and inherent risks of the sector

15% above long term government bond - that's fairly standard.

[Slam dunk]

Congratulations to the Pacific Edge team on winning the NZBIO / Janssen Excellence Award for 'Company of the Year' at the 2014 NZBIO Conference last night! Great to see their work recognised!

[MAC]

15% above long term government bond - that's fairly standard.

Ha, it is easy to pick a number out of the air esp a nice big one, but some 'science' and analysis is actually required.

WACC is a derivative of the marginal cost of both debt and equity funding, for companies that are about to become profitable like Pacific Edge, BETA calc's don't apply but there are alternate methods in this instance, have a read of links that I posted as a fair starting reference.

You may be surprised to hear that late last year PWC derived an average market WACC of 8.4%, this will start to increase slowly now going forward. Small businesses, as going concerns, typically have a WACC 2% higher than average.

A WACC of 11.25 to 11.75 is appropriate for Pacific Edge at this time and stage.

many regards, Mac

http://www.pwc.co.nz/appreciating-va...-wacc-formula/ (http://www.pwc.co.nz/appreciating-value/pwc-wacc-formula/)

http://www.pwc.co.nz/PWC.NZ/media/pd...ember-2013.pdf (http://www.pwc.co.nz/PWC.NZ/media/pdf-documents/appreciating-value/pwc-appreciating-value-edition-4-september-2013.pdf)

[Xerof]

MAC, I see PWC have PEB at 12.1 in the report sourced via your second link

[goldfish]

Yip was looking like it could have been a good day, till someone put a 300000 lot down, nothing stops a uptrend from starting quicker then a big packet of shares.

[MAC]

MAC, I see PWC have PEB at 12.1 in the report sourced via your second link

Yes, quite right and well noted Xerof, that was their determination in September last year, however they may also have revised as Pacific Edge as we know have de-risked quite a lot more since then and the company is now another six months closer to becoming profitable, probably at HY15 IMHO rather that at FY14 in a few weeks.

[goldfish]

Someone doesn't want the uptrend to continue. Someone wants to accumulate more at lower prices...

Maybe, I dunno hard to tell. Or they just clueless...

[robbo24]

"Do not underestimate your enemies or overestimate your friends".

They may be doing you a favour, you might get to top up as well.

[couta1]

Maybe, I dunno hard to tell. Or they just clueless...
Your onto it:scared:

[winner69]

Mac, I only asked what discount rate you were using to see if that was the reason why you think PEB is worth 170 while I reckon a lot less at about 120., especially when I have the feeling that our projected cash flows (maybe with the exception of the terminal value) are probably pretty similar. Sorry about the flak you got.

While one can do the theoretical stuff like How PWC do the sums or throw in a bit of Brennan Lally thinking to get a discount rate I take a more pragmatic / reality approach - essentially what do I want in the way of returns. A bit like the corporate finance approach of 'hurdle rates' they use to assess investments / acquisitions - usually higher than the company's cost of capital.

Reality to me is that I can get 5%-6% pa by putting cash in the bank, or having a pretty realistic expectation of getting 10% pa from RBD and over time even more than this from the likes of AIA. So I would like a greater long term return from an investment in PEB - based on where PEB is currently placed in implementing what could be a great story. That hurdle rate is 15%.

That's where my 120 (recently revised) number comes. Buy at 120 expected return of 15% pa (OKish), buy at 100 expected return increases to 18% (better still) but buy at 170 expected return is about 9% (not worth it)

Anyway that's my view. Probably in new guys eyes a load of cods wallop and in your eyes too conservative but each to their own. At least this approach works for me.

[Minerbarejet]

See the 300000 odd has disappeared from 1.13. Hmmm. So if it goes back on again then it might be someone who reads sharetrader. What do you reckon, Bobcat?:)

[Microsloth]

For what its worth from today's Otago Daily Times (sorry couldn't find it online )

Pacific Edge named top of class

named NZs top bioscience Company at NZBIO awards

"The company's expansion in to the United States has been hugely successful."


Journalistic exuberance and no clarification of successful etc


by line Dene Mckenzie

[Minerbarejet]

For what its worth from today's Otago Daily Times (sorry couldn't find it online )

Pacific Edge named top of class

named NZs top bioscience Company at NZBIO awards

"The company's expansion in to the United States has been hugely successful."


Journalistic exuberance and no clarification of successful etc


by line Dene MckenzieSounds like a bit of good old southern parochialism, we await still the defining moments of PEB's success.

[nextbigthing]

My question is "why isn't PEB communicating these awards/successes to the market?"

Valid question NG. Answer is they're too busy processing all the tests. So busy that even DD is running around the lab helping out.

Or something.

[barney]

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/auckland/news/nbhea/1567374273-pacific-edge-our-top-bioscience-company

[Harvey Specter]

My question is "why isn't PEB communicating these awards/successes to the market?"I believe they tweeted it but probably didn't think it warrented a NZX disclosure.

[zigzag]

My question is "why isn't PEB communicating these awards/successes to the market?"

Companies aren't meant to use NZX announcements for PR purposes. There is a line between serious announcements and self promotion.

[MAC]

Winner, the reality for you, is that you may choose, as we all may do as individuals, to invest in Pacific Edge or not, with whatever criteria you may first wish to apply, just as with any other investment.

It is not ones individual investment criteria that determines the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for any particular company, it’s a determined variable by analysts and an important one as it does influence valuations, but there are actually methodologies that should be attempted.

The only reason I posted the PWC analysis is because it is readily accessible on the internet for readers of this thread.

PWC last year applied a WACC of 12.1 for Pacific Edge which at the time I considered very high and still do, since then PEB have progressed further. I’m considering a range between 11.25 and 11.75 to apply for a HY15 valuation.

If anyone requires independent advice in this area, they can contact their broker for the rationale of what WACC they apply and the analysis behind it.

[Schrodinger]

When does the sales report come out. All I see is smoke and mirrors at the moment. Time for some hard numbers.

[winner69]

Winner, the reality for you, is that you may choose, as we all may do as individuals, to invest in Pacific Edge or not, with whatever criteria you may first wish to apply, just as with any other investment.

It is not ones individual investment criteria that determines the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for any particular company, it’s a determined variable by analysts and an important one as it does influence valuations, but there are actually methodologies that should be attempted.

The only reason I posted the PWC analysis is because it is readily accessible on the internet for readers of this thread.

PWC last year applied a WACC of 12.1 for Pacific Edge which at the time I considered very high and still do, since then PEB have progressed further. I’m considering a range between 11.25 and 11.75 to apply for a HY15 valuation.

If anyone requires independent advice in this area, they can contact their broker for the rationale of what WACC they apply and the analysis behind it.

I understand all that MAC and not at all rubbishing

From an 'investment' point of view I stand by taking the view of coming up with a value that will give me the return I consider reasonable. For PEB based on all the revenues / margin / investment assumptions I would be happy enough buying more up to 120 which would give me a 15% rate of return.

But I have a heap of PEB (free ones) at the moment so don't really need any more ....but sub 90 might tempt me ....if I have faith in my numbers that would give me a 20% IRR over time

[MAC]

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/auckland/news/nbhea/1567374273-pacific-edge-our-top-bioscience-company

I think it’s a good motivating recognition for all those working hard in the labs and something for sales folk too to affirm all that honey they pour into the ears of HMO managers.

I’ve been looking about for other biotech sector investments and have to say I’m struggling to find another with both Pacific Edge potential and a present need for capital.

[psychic]

I received this from email from David Darling this morning:
Nothing yet from ODT


Dear Mike,
Thank you for your email. That is not a statement made by Chris Swann. We do not give out projections on sales at this stage of our business as you can appreciate there are virtually no comparables in the market and it is very difficult to predict the adoption curve for our product. We do have a number of analysts preparing to do research on the market prospects for this product and for our business. These will come out over the course of the year.
I hope that this helps you.
Regards Dave


Okay, heard from the ODT today.
They stand by Swann's quote.

Will seek further comment.








Well...

[Longhaul]

Okay, heard from the ODT today. They stand by Swann's quote.

Is this the quote you refer to? "Mr Swann is confident the company will processing ''several tens of thousands of tests'' next year." - link to article (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business).

As someone suggested the other day, Swann did not refer to sales, rather "tests".

[Harvey Specter]

Is this the quote you refer to? "Mr Swann is confident the company will processing ''several tens of thousands of tests'' next year." - link to article (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business).

As someone suggested the other day, Swann did not refer to sales, rather "tests".i must admit, that comment in relation to tests ( not sales - I expect a portion to be non paying trials for the lugs etc), in part influenced my decision to hold on as it fell.

[psychic]

Yes, that's the one. Agree, Tests, not sales.


I received this from email from David Darling this morning:
Nothing yet from ODT


Dear Mike,
Thank you for your email. That is not a statement made by Chris Swann. We do not give out projections on sales at this stage of our business as you can appreciate there are virtually no comparables in the market and it is very difficult to predict the adoption curve for our product. We do have a number of analysts preparing to do research on the market prospects for this product and for our business. These will come out over the course of the year.
I hope that this helps you.
Regards Dave



Is this the quote you refer to? "Mr Swann is confident the company will processing ''several tens of thousands of tests'' next year." - link to article (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business).

As someone suggested the other day, Swann did not refer to sales, rather "tests".

[psychic]

i must admit, that comment in relation to tests ( not sales - I expect a portion to be non paying trials for the lugs etc), in part influenced my decision to hold on as it fell.

Perhaps a few relied on it HS. The price went from $1.30 to $1.70 after the article.

[baller18]

Ok, even if its tests thats fine, but I remember DD saying in some article they would be in profit this year, or was it next year?
Therefore, to be in profit, wouldn't it still be in the range of 10,000 sales at least....

[MAC]

Ok, even if its tests thats fine, but I remember DD saying in some article they would be in profit this year, or was it next year?
Therefore, to be in profit, wouldn't it still be in the range of 10,000 sales at least....

I agree with you Baller, whether it’s a combination of sales, user programme tests or just simply tests provided as free incentives to the LUG participants, all of those things at this stage in the commercialisation plan are equally good things.

The guidance is for first profitability this calendar year;

From NZ Herald June 2013: “Darling said Pacific Edge was expecting to turn its maiden profit next year, We're pushing ourselves pretty hard."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10893207

Interestingly my calculator tells me it will take around 15,000 to 20,000 sales for the first profit to be comfortably achieved.

IMHO this is more likely to occur at HY15 in November rather than at FY14 in three weeks or so, but I would be delighted to be surprised too.

I also just can't get that CS quote from back in December out of my head;

"Breaking into the US market, giving it access to customers numbered in the tens of millions, meant a tough fight to gain strict regulatory approvals."

"However, that process is now complete and next year product sales will not only provide much needed cashflow but will probably see large pharmaceutical companies sitting up and taking notice."

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business

How many reasons are there for a company chairman wanting to see pharmaceutical companies taking notice when sales do occur ?

[baller18]

Would you be very disappointed if they did not achieve 15K sales by HY15 in November?

If they did in three weeks, the SP will just go off like crazy, however, I will be very very happy with 5k. Would you be disappointed if it was in the 3k range MAC?

I am also curious to know how many people they have on ground at the US as of right now, last year when they started in july there were only 3... Don't think 3 on the ground would get us 10k of sales....

[baller18]

Any TA's out there wana let me know if we have formed a double bottom (w)?

If so, then a good announcement could and possibly cause a breakout..

[nextbigthing]

Any TA's out there wana let me know if we have formed a double bottom (w)?

If so, then a good announcement could and possibly cause a breakout..

Baller my man,

I don't think you need a chart to realize a good announcement will do good things to the shareprice.

NBT

[MAC]

Would you be very disappointed if they did not achieve 15K sales by HY15 in November?

If they did in three weeks, the SP will just go off like crazy, however, I will be very very happy with 5k. Would you be disappointed if it was in the 3k range MAC?

I am also curious to know how many people they have on ground at the US as of right now, last year when they started in july there were only 3... Don't think 3 on the ground would get us 10k of sales....

As at December 2013: http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business

“Pacific Edge has about 18 employees in Dunedin, including management, administration and lab technicians, a further 10 in Pennsylvania, and an expanding US marketing team of six, which is expected to grow to 25”

We have also since then seen several further LinkedIn advertisements for strategic regional sales managers for Boston, Houston, Chicago, etc

However, we should contemplate that it takes six months to a year for new professional staff to become productive, just as it does in our own workplaces.

Again, I’d be entirely satisfied with 1,000 to 5,000 sales at FY14.

It’s a five year plan and I don’t think sales are the best measure of progress this early on. Being on schedule against the commercialisation plan, gaining CE Mark approval, commencing Spanish sales, and rolling out the new cxbladder products on schedule is as important if not more important IMO.

regards, Mac

[robbo24]

Cxbladder is "becoming" something, as per the announcement. Good.

[hairofthedog]

Good news. Would like to see some sales....

[Schrodinger]

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/news/Exporter-March-2014.pdf

So going by this:

2014: $300K ($30k trading $270k gifts)
2015: $5M < lol no chance
2016: $10M
2017: $20M
2018: $50M
2019: $100M

[nextbigthing]

Good news. Would like to see some sales....

Maybe it's a subtle hint that everything's on track...

[nextbigthing]

Good link Schrödinger, thanks

[winner69]

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/news/Exporter-March-2014.pdf

So going by this:

2014: $300K ($30k trading $270k gifts)
2015: $5M < lol no chance
2016: $10M
2017: $20M
2018: $50M
2019: $100M

Are those your guesses/estimates. Didn't seem to be any detail in that good article

Bit lower (and slower growth) sales projections than the Harbour Capital ones

I might need to lower my valuation down to $1 and MAC would need to take his down to $1.40 on these numbers

[Schrodinger]

I will keep this simple due to several factors namely I have no idea what their current sales are. The first figure was a doubling of their 6 month report which had a huge component of gifts (grants). Might be better in the second half, very important for PEB that it is.

I was giving a very basic overview of how this company will need to scale to justify its huge current valuation. If there is any slow announcements of the sales then this will drop like a stone.

Not really impressed with MAC's constant diversions about Spain, etc etc. It is also amusing saying things like the sales guys need 1+ years to know what they are doing. This is a US story and they pitched it to us as that. The other markets are irrelevant to the valuation.

I could go more complex in terms of knowing the scale potential based on ACTUAL tests in the US and likely market share with low/middle/high estimates for the sales forecast.

Hope these guys pull through and favour (Winners?) WACC of 17%, even push that to 20 due to degree of difficulty in what they intend to do.

[nextbigthing]

Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

Haha brilliant. They want an ice cream too.

[Schrodinger]

Are those your guesses/estimates. Didn't seem to be any detail in that good article

Bit lower (and slower growth) sales projections than the Harbour Capital ones

I might need to lower my valuation down to $1 and MAC would need to take his down to $1.40 on these numbers

What you need to focus on is:

Are they continually shifting the goal posts further out. That is what I would be watching. Anyone with a large interest in this notice they are pushing back the timeframes or are they consistent messages?

[Bobcat.]

The past two days' lows/highs have dropped from 113/108 to 112/106, with today's currently 110/108.

Monday mid-late afternoons are usually a good time to buy NZ stocks. If PEB's sp continues to hold above 106, it could well be time to then top up.

The more conservative amongst us may want to wait for today's high to be breached next week.

[Goldstein]

The past two days' lows/highs have dropped from 113/108 to 112/106, with today's currently 110/108.

Monday mid-late afternoons are usually a good time to buy NZ stocks. If PEB's sp continues to hold above 106, it could well be time to then top up.

The more conservative amongst us may want to wait for today's high to be breached next week.

I'm looking at re-enering PEB at these prices. I'll just average around a bit I think - I'm pretty hopeless at picking bottoms.

[skid]

are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

--show me the money!!

[MAC]

Yep, impatient, spoiled kids, expecting everything all at once, tantrums too, bet they’ve been left on the side of the road by their market mum.

If you’re not in, you can always run behind the car, if you run real fast you might catch it up before it gets all the way to $5

[skid]

I'm looking at re-enering PEB at these prices. I'll just average around a bit I think - I'm pretty hopeless at picking bottoms.

I was reading the other day that the Nasdaq gained 40% last year--In the recent correction it lost 1%--Its doing well now (for 3 days)
There are a number of conclusions you can draw from this--DYOR

Looking to get in at $1 or less (no offense to anyone--Ive decided to take the risk of being left behind-just not trusting the sales at home-and the Biotec market overseas.)

Just joking on my show me comment Mac---Im under no illusions that I may be eating your dust--but we all have to make our own decisions.

[Goldstein]

I was reading the other day that the Nasdaq gained 40% last year--In the recent correction it lost 1%--Its doing well now (for 3 days)
There are a number of conclusions you can draw from this--DYOR

Looking to get in at $1 or less (no offense to anyone--Ive decided to take the risk of being left behind-just not trusting the sales at home-and the Biotec market overseas.)

Just joking on my show me comment Mac---Im under no illusions that I may be eating your dust--but we all have to make our own decisions.

The way I look at it, the company is either worth investing in (to you) or it isn't. The current price has shown reasonable support around $1 while the NDQ has been quite volatile.. We have the FY report at the end of the month - so some news at least. Good time for investors to climb aboard. Classic case of TAs vs Fundamentalists going on here.

[Minerbarejet]

Boils down to one item. Is the company on track? Yes or No
If you say yes - better get some
If you say no - better sell some
If you are in two minds and have some hang onto them
If you are in two minds and dont have any dont buy any.

Just trying to be helpful:)

And of course we can go through the same process in November this year and May next year by which time we MAY have a better indication how the FIVE year plan is going

[skid]

Quite right Goldstein-This is a good month to either climb aboard or not.
When the report comes in,there will be much more to go on and IMO the outside markets will not have the same influence(but should not be completely disregarded).
So this month,the markets could have more effect,so I will wait and see.
I believe,that if last years announcements would have come in todays market,the effect would have been less dramatic than they were.
But thats just my opinion.
I also believe that,even at todays SP the company(which appears to be well run,with good management)is priced to expect perfection.
If I end up on board for a dollar or less,I will not be giving myself pats on the back or high fives and if I miss out there will be no tears.
Im not asking any one else to join me -Just seems like a good time for caution to me.

[MAC]

Value is value skid, whether you get the timing exactly perfectly perfect or whether close enough is just good enough doesn’t really matter much in the long run.

The risk in jumping in and out, trying to be a little too cute with the timing, suffering from timing pride, paying all that tax and brokerage can simply be an enormous risk to ones prosperity, particularly with a growth stock which has probably an enduring future.

Whether you buy at $1.15 or $1.50 or somewhere else around about here, you are becoming a shareholder in a company with sound fundamentals, in a couple of year’s time when the SP may very well indeed be over $5 you may well look back and smile at what little a few cents really didn’t matter.

Although I think those traders who illogically attempt to connect a frothy nasnaq with a well managed extraordinarily undervalued company in NZ like Pacific Edge are just totally bonkers, they do provide a great entry point or top up point service. It would be a shame not to use that service since they’ve gone to all that trouble.

[barney]

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/jack-atchason/8/883/66a?trk=pub-pbmap

A promotion perhaps ?

[baller18]

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/jack-atchason/8/883/66a?trk=pub-pbmap

A promotion perhaps ?
Interesting, he must be doing something right but once again they only have like 10 or so people to pick from... So....

[MAC]

Interesting, he must be doing something right but once again they only have like 10 or so people to pick from... So....

It’s probably more for Pacific edge about aligning the seniority between points of contact within the HMO's than it is about promotions, although they may have waited to bestow the grand title until proven worthy.

PEB vice presidents talk to HMO vice presidents, PEB strategic sales managers talk to HMO general managers.

[Dentie]

From an amateur's look at one of the most basic technical indicators - the MACD - I note the following:

The MACD has just completed a bullish crossover from a position which is at least 3 times deeper below the zero line than it has ever been since PEB started out (ie -0.10) and has now started its climb upwards. The divergence has clearly crossed the zero line and is now in positive territory and yesterday's engulfing candle is another plus sign.

The last time the MACD completed a bullish crossover from below the zero line (and only just below it) was in October last year when the SP was about 50c. About a week later the SP was in the $1.70's. Interestingly, there was no definable bearish trendline that could be drawn on the MACD at the time. However there has been a very well defined bearish trendline in place since late October.

I also note the recent double bottom.

At the risk of being vilified ...here is my "amateur" and "bullish" opinion:

If one doesn't mind a bit of risk, now is a good time to buy but to be sure, all going well - in about a week's time, I believe the bearish trendline will have run out of steam and the MACD would have crossed back over it as it heads back towards the zero line. Wait a bit longer and the MACD should have crossed the zero line. If one is not in by then well ....

Mind you, the all important sales figures will also be due and if they disappoint holders then ......

[Balance]

Mind you, the all important sales figures will also be due and if they disappoint holders then ......

That is a given, Dentie - expectations are far too high amongst many of the amateur traders on the share register.

[klid]

yes I understand what you mean some kids are a bit slow and repetition is the only thing that works.
A bit like the kids that did not sell at least some of there shares @$1.60-$1.70.

Their shares.
I guess I am a kid then since I held through everything.
All makes sense I guess?
Going to buy some more next week.

[Leftfield]

If one doesn't mind a bit of risk, now is a good time to buy but to be sure, all going well - in about a week's time, I believe the bearish trendline will have run out of steam and the MACD would have crossed back over it as it heads back towards the zero line.

Agree, I've increased my long term holding. Av holding price now less than .80c. I'll leave the short term trading to others. Interesting times ahead.

[skid]

Value is value skid, whether you get the timing exactly perfectly perfect or whether close enough is just good enough doesn’t really matter much in the long run.

The risk in jumping in and out, trying to be a little too cute with the timing, suffering from timing pride, paying all that tax and brokerage can simply be an enormous risk to ones prosperity, particularly with a growth stock which has probably an enduring future.

Whether you buy at $1.15 or $1.50 or somewhere else around about here, you are becoming a shareholder in a company with sound fundamentals, in a couple of year’s time when the SP may very well indeed be over $5 you may well look back and smile at what little a few cents really didn’t matter.

Although I think those traders who illogically attempt to connect a frothy nasnaq with a well managed extraordinarily undervalued company in NZ like Pacific Edge are just totally bonkers, they do provide a great entry point or top up point service. It would be a shame not to use that service since they’ve gone to all that trouble.

I didnt say I was looking to jump in and out Mac--Just cautious about when to jump in.
Im a bit surprised at your Nasdaq comments--Hav'nt you been watching the SP over the last weeks? Im not connecting the Nasdaq with the well managed company--Im connecting it with the value of the well managed company(ATM)--(and that has worked in your favor this week)
For me ,its not about timing to the last dollar.
Im concerned about the market in general enough to stand back and let it establish where its going before jumping.
the market thrased PEB when it was at $1.50-1.70 and it will thrash it again if it turns,well managed or not.
Its been a good week for the markets (Nasdaq) and a good week for PEB so what are you complaining about? Someone who has a different approach?
You may well be looking back and smiling in a few years time ,but your language insinuates that your not smiling now. Your just looking for some one to blame.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Value is value skid, whether you get the timing exactly perfectly perfect or whether close enough is just good enough doesn’t really matter much in the long run.

The risk in jumping in and out, trying to be a little too cute with the timing, suffering from timing pride, paying all that tax and brokerage can simply be an enormous risk to ones prosperity, particularly with a growth stock which has probably an enduring future.

Whether you buy at $1.15 or $1.50 or somewhere else around about here, you are becoming a shareholder in a company with sound fundamentals, in a couple of year’s time when the SP may very well indeed be over $5 you may well look back and smile at what little a few cents really didn’t matter.

Although I think those traders who illogically attempt to connect a frothy nasnaq with a well managed extraordinarily undervalued company in NZ like Pacific Edge are just totally bonkers, they do provide a great entry point or top up point service. It would be a shame not to use that service since they’ve gone to all that trouble.

Current fundamentals are far from sound. Throughput is near zero and NPAT is negative. That $100million goal is far from a given...

[MAC]

Biotech companies take products through a series of phases, it starts with a blank bit of paper and a concept, becomes research and development, goes through clinical trials, progresses to user programmes and endorsements, and then enters a commercialisation phase. It’s a process that takes years of hard work by very smart people, and level headed patience from their investors.

Some folk are unduly swayed by short term sentiment, they run hot then cold then hot, but the fundamentals remain as they are as does the underlying prospect for a company. One must filter the noise from the important fundamental signals to prosper as an investor.

As an exercise go back and have a look to see if the company is on track against the guidance they have provided, in summary;

Clinical trials: Achieved with results better than anticipated.
Regulatory Approvals: Achieved on schedule.
Laboratory Construction: On schedule and under budget
Sales: Entirely where Pacific Edge have suggested they should be at this very early stage

Personally, I think the five year goal of achieving a 10% market share is really quite conservative, the market itself is growing at 3% per annum, so over 15% during that same timeframe.

Pacific Edge have told us that they expect to be profitable in 2014, so we may thus anticipate this probability at HY15.

I see every reason why they should achieve this, they have the lab capacity, they have three alliance agreements now with network providers which they are working with, they have been ramping staff according to plan, they have been working the conference circuit heavily and they have told us that they are engaging with HMO’s like Kaiser Permanente and Intermountain, and of course they have ongoing discussions with CMS with whom they are already a provider.

It’s all entirely where it should be and on track at this time, watch for valuations to steadily increase over the next year or two whilst this remains so.

[MAC]

Sorry Moosie but actually the sales report as you call it is a distraction and you may well be wasting your time waiting for it.

If this very early stage number of sales at FY14 falls anywhere between the consensus on this thread 1,000 to 20,000 then it will have, through sensitivity analysis, no impact on the valuation of the company whatsoever.

I agree though that it will confirm exactly what we already know and what Pacific Edge have been telling us, that it’s very early in a five year plan.

What’s more important and what we should actually be eagerly awaiting is the commentary on the commercialisation plan within the FY14 announcement.

An affirmation of continued progress alone will in all probability see valuations revised upwards as an affirmed cxbladder revenue stream will have become another six months closer.

[Harvey Specter]

If this very early stage number of sales at FY14 falls anywhere between the consensus on this thread 1,000 to 20,000 then it will have, through sensitivity analysis, no impact on the valuation of the company whatsoever.Doesn't it give an indication that the 5 year plan of $100m is on track, ahead or behind schedule?

Ie. At 20,000 tests, you may starting being your sales forward AND increasing the end value above $100m? But at 1000, you are still waiting on further proof than they will get traction - I given extremes but you get the point - more a confidence in your terminal value, hence a lower WACC needed ;)

[MAC]

Doesn't it give an indication that the 5 year plan of $100m is on track, ahead or behind schedule?

Ie. At 20,000 tests, you may starting being your sales forward AND increasing the end value above $100m? But at 1000, you are still waiting on further proof than they will get traction - I given extremes but you get the point - more a confidence in your terminal value, hence a lower WACC needed ;)

I don’t think it’s about proof at FY14, it was just so early on wasn't it Harvey to say if it is even a little bit indicative or not, HY15 though absolutely.

First sales were announced on 18th October and any sales shortly thereafter, up to the 31 March reporting period, were really probably just what happened to roll in whilst the company was busy getting itself organised in Hershey, while they were flat out hiring, moving furniture about, xmas, thanks giving, and answering important questions from new staff, like ‘what’s a genome’. I’d be happy with a 1,000 random’s but then I don’t really think it matters for aforementioned reasons.

My calculator tells me it will take 0.5 to 0.7% market share or 15,000 to 20,000 sales for the company to become profitable, guidance from Pacific Edge is that we will see this in 2014, and I’m a bit confident also that we will see it at HY15 in November, but it was never going to be physically possible up to 31 March, was it.

[baller18]

I agree with you Mac, after the first national provider was signed up, first commericial saleS went through, suggesting groups of users, which is definitely a positive, but who knows...

[skid]

IMO,that would be a solid argument if PEB had had a slow steady rise in SP from the .50 level--But thats not what we saw--we saw a rocket all the way up to $1.50 (and beyond) They got some institutions on board,but we still dont know if they are actually buying much at this stage--all because of fundamentals?-I dont think so--speculation played its part.
And now we are so used to that $1.50-$1.70,that this price seems cheap--but is it?--Well,we just dont know do we?
Everyone has their opinion but its just that until they land another big time health provider,or get really good sales figures.
There is nothing left to do but wait and keep tossing around thoughts on the issue--(and keep an eye on the ''frothy'' outside markets) (if your me)--So lets go get some plaster for the walls and maybe a bicycle helmet:):)

Its become more than just investing -Its become a pastime

[robbo24]

MAC, how can you say that? So if 1,000 tests are sold and the market is totally underwhelmed and tanks the sp, I should just stick my head in the sand and go " la la la laaaaa"? How is that any comfort for those that bought at $1.65 expecting great things? That's quite on par with the DIL thread and saying "slowing growth doesn't matter, cash is king". Ummmm, nope, and the sp STILL hasn't recovered there!

I don't believe in timing the market absolutely perfectly, but right now mr market is speaking loud and clear; buy at your own risk and don't take what a company says for granted!

This is the same old story as when the SP "tanked" from 70 to 45.

You can la la la all you like, one announcement makes this drivel irrelevant (up or down).

[MAC]

One should never take anything for granted, your own research is your friend.

Take 60 seconds to step back and have a look at where the company is on the path, clinical trials complete, approvals granted, labs built, user programmes satisfied, first sales made, and now sales ramp up just commencing. It's a long path with a big picture and a goal at the end.

If I truly ask myself whether 0.038% market share (1,000 sales), or a figure half that, or double that magnitude really matters at this time, the answer is, shrug, not one bit really in the big picture. On the path to 10% in five years it's a bit of early stage noise really.

The commercialisation plan and progress against it is important though and although Pacific Edge typically meet their milestones really very well we should watch for those to be on schedule.

If a nice preliminary 1,000 to 5,000 early sales are reported to 31 March and a confident affirmation of progress on the commercialisation plan is received from Pacific Edge, the share price should head nicely toward valuation, probably helped along by all those milestones anticipated for this year.

[Minerbarejet]

Question: Does the 100 million goal as set out by Pacific Edge relate entirely to cxBladder or is it a best estimate based on the release of all or most of their products? If it is solely cxbladder then all the estimates made on this thread remain valid. If it is not just for cxbladder then there is no way of knowing just how much proportionate uptake there will be. If colorectal is not included then its release will have a huge effect on the upside eventually, one would think. Anyone have a link to some information on this as I cant seem to find any.
Cheers

[Harvey Specter]

Question: Does the 100 million goal as set out by Pacific Edge relate entirely to cxBladder or is it a best estimate based on the release of all or most of their products?
CheersI dont beleive it is entirely clear whether the $100m:
- just relates to CxBladder
- is in NZD or USD
- relates just to US market or worldwide

I am of the view that even if it is all products, worldwide and in NZD, the price is still cheap.

Disclosure: overweight with all purchases when it was under $1. Was really overweight when it hit $1.70 and should have taken some off the table so I could reinvest now.

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks guys,
Guess we will have to keep a close watch on developments.
Harvey: and what happens when it gets back to 1.70 again.
( on the way to 2.50)?:)

[Harvey Specter]

Harvey: and what happens when it gets back to 1.70 again.
( on the way to 2.50)?:)Depending on how long till it gets back to $1.70, it will be de risked some more since last time it was there so my valuation will have changed (it is very much a guess based on the info I know, not a full DCF model. I think I was planning on cashing in some around $2 last time but as I said, I never got around to it).

[Minerbarejet]

$1B company then eh Miner? Hope triage and colorectal are announced soon and have a fast rollout time on top of a very good sales report!
Ah yes, but I didn't say when it would do that. Somewhere in 2016-17 would be fine.:)

[winner69]

What is PEB worth if CxBladder doesn't make the expected inroads in the US and as such fails to reach critical mass for making a decent profit?

Probably asking is PEB an all or nothing bet?

[MAC]

I don’t think it’s ever going to be black or white just like any other diagnostic product.

They are already selling so it can never be zero and it would be a little whimsical to suggest they may get an 80% market share, .... but cripes what would just half that do to the share price.

If they can maintain the first mover advantage it should cement them quite well. I like the way Pacific Edge are now both aiming to fragment the market and claim it as their own with three or four separate cxbladder products and applications, a very smart marketing strategy by someone in that company.

Competitors would not only have to spend years leaping the regulatory barrier to entry, but if they got there they would find a market saturated by cxbladder products. It lowers the incentive and potential prosperity for competitors to contemplate giving it a crack.

If they keep innovating with both tech and marketing like this they will have a big future in this business.

[janner]

To much Humbug me thinks.. :-))

Just wait for the figures :-))


Disc.. Holding.

[MAC]

Once upon a time a company called Matritech developed a bladder cancer detection test, they didn’t live happily ever after as they were snapped up and taken over early in life by Alere and Inverness, but their product NMP22 has remained in the market place for over ten years now and has a market share already.

It’s not a binary matter at all, ….. others have already demonstrated and proven that a profitable percentage market share is both achievable and desirable by the big market players.

PEB have told us that one of their aim’s is to replace NMP22(bladdercheck) and NPM22(elisa) test products in the market place with new generation tech, cxbladder, and thus displace their existing predominant market share position.

Cxbladder is also the first product available of sufficient accuracy which may now be used to compliment or partially replace Cytology as a methodology, this prospectively opens up a whole brand new market and potentially a much bigger market too.

All the 100%’s in that familiar table tell the story of a market awaiting cxbladder;

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/84/843/84346/items/146534/2004AR.pdf

5774

[baller18]

Once upon a time a company called Matritech developed a bladder cancer detection test, they didn’t live happily ever after as they were snapped up and taken over early in life by Alere and Inverness, but their product NMP22 has remained in the market place for over ten years now and has a market share already.

It’s not a binary matter at all, ….. others have already demonstrated and proven that a profitable percentage market share is both achievable and desirable by the big market players.

PEB have told us that one of their aim’s is to replace NMP22(bladdercheck) and NPM22(elisa) test products in the market place with new generation tech, cxbladder, and thus displace their existing predominant market share position.

Cxbladder is also the first product available of sufficient accuracy which may now be used to compliment or partially replace Cytology as a methodology, this prospectively opens up a whole brand new market and potentially a much bigger market too.

All the 100%’s in that familiar table tell the story of a market awaiting cxbladder;

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/84/843/84346/items/146534/2004AR.pdf

5774

THat's a major confidence boost to know cxbladder is way ahead of the game compared to matritech... However mac, cx bladder has the lowest specificity...

mac - did matritech ever get medicare coverage?

[MAC]

THat's a major confidence boost to know cxbladder is way ahead of the game compared to matritech... However mac, cx bladder has the lowest specificity...

mac - did matritech ever get medicare coverage?

Ah yes Baller, watch this space, cxbladder(triage) is about to be launched any day now, it's target market as I understand it, is high specificity early sequence triage, it will be interesting to see if it is 96% or higher

Matritech and Medicare, yes also, 10 years ago leading the way,

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20040407005292/en/Matritech-Reaches-Key-Medicare-Milestone-Monitoring-Bladder#.U2Yc_6iSxh4

[baller18]

Ah yes Baller, watch this space, cxbladder(triage) is about to be launched any day now, it's target market as I understand it, is high specificity early sequence triage, it will be interesting to see if it is 96% or higher

Matritech and Medicare, yes also, 10 years ago leading the way,

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20040407005292/en/Matritech-Reaches-Key-Medicare-Milestone-Monitoring-Bladder#.U2Yc_6iSxh4

I believe it's matter of time when cxbladder gets medicare coverage as well, as jackie walker was confident but it was a matter of time, and reported medicare was impressed with cxbladder.

However, snap does make a good point about matritech not gaining sales traction even after gaining approval from CMS. Urologists not accpeting matrictech much??

[MAC]

Thanks Mac.
I research into nmp22 bladder check many months ago and this indicated it has struggled to gain market share.
I believe 4 years after there first commercail sale's were achieved in the US they were only doing 4500 test every year.

This is one of the reason's I have been a bit wary of the cx bladder up take.
It does look like cx bladder has more accuracy but as I have mentioned before they are not the first product to become available and no product has achieved great sales traction.

A little research is a good thing a lot is even better.

Ten years ago the concept of a urine test for cancer was absolutely revolutionary and the hurdles for the early companies like Matritech and products like NMP22 was totally enormous to overcome.

NMP22 has been about for well over ten years now and your figures are not only ten years out of date, they only cover a part of the potential cxbladder market as cxbladder can do much more than NMP22.

The glass half full view, because we know you don't have one, is that ten years later the medical and clinical profession is now comfortably predisposed to new technologies like this, and, especially so to a test which provides superior results for their patients, and, which prospectively is adequately now accurate enough to lower work up costs for insurers by 30%.

[winner69]

A little research is a good thing a lot is even better.

.

But then Einstein said "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. So is a lot."

[skid]

A little research is a good thing a lot is even better.

Ten years ago the concept of a urine test for cancer was absolutely revolutionary and the hurdles for the early companies like Matritech and products like NMP22 was totally enormous to overcome.

NMP22 has been about for well over ten years now and your figures are not only ten years out of date, they only cover a part of the potential cxbladder market as cxbladder can do much more than NMP22.

The glass half full view, because we know you don't have one, is that ten years later the medical and clinical profession is now comfortably predisposed to new technologies like this, and, especially so to a test which provides superior results for their patients, and, which prospectively is adequately now accurate enough to lower work up costs for insurers by 30%.

If snaps research is ten years out of date could you please update us on what market share NMP has now please-It would be useful info.

[Harvey Specter]

My research indicates that at the time (10 years ago) NMP22 was being marketed as a revolutionary product and was held in high regard as an alternative to the current invasive test.... very much like cx bladder.
No I dont have current sale's figure's but nmp22 tests but it has most diffeneatly has not taken off like first predicted.
For me this is a concern and I have read more than one urologyst's article that seem's to relate to the poor uptake of previous products(like nmp22) when cx bladder is being talk about.
In fact reading some of the article's and given the fact that nmp22 was not that successful it would seem many urologyst have the seen it all before happy to keep doing what I am doing thanks anyway attitude.
I believe this current reluctance to change and seen it all before attitude from the urolygist is going to show in PEB sale's traction results.
However PEB has a better product and I firmly believe given time it will succeed where others have failed but IMHO the sales curve is going to be drawn out. Lets hope it is much quicker than nmp22.I wonder how increasing healthcare costs and pressures from insurance companies will mean 'it is different this time'. Getting those contracts with the insurance companies is key in my opinion.

[couta1]

agree totally and getting CXbladder written up in clinical pathways will be even better.
Good things take time.
Hey Snapiti perhaps you should apply your Peb thinking to ATM as well following the advise of those old cheese add guys:cool:

[Minerbarejet]

Really think that the whole aim at present is to get accepted as a better replacement for cytology as a bladder cancer test. According to the chart previously posted NMP22 just does not have the stats to do that. An adjunct to cystoscopy is the primary goal replacing cytology in the clinical pathway I think.
But then what would I know-
I am just an innocent bystander holding a few PEBbles:)

[mis chief]

Neverin the history of Sharetrader have so many had so much to opine.

And so they began to pontificate about PEB, the little New Zealand business, many hundreds of pages and thousands of posts ago. They held forth, declaimed, preached, sounded off, spouted off, gave sermons, lectures, extolled, decried, dogmatised (sometimes absurdly?), some partook in a game of one upmanship to show their knowledge (and sometimes their lack of), surmised, conflagrated, summarised,supposed, extrapolated, assumed (assumption, the mother of all stuff ups?), speculated (a great deal), planted doom and gloom, hype and hoopla, and sometimes theymade personal attacks (signs of desperation?).

So, really, have many of them had something solid and worthwhile to put forward? Or has it become all to much (or is that too much?) to any longer come to some sort of decision?

Some left, others took their place. Perhaps some of those that left did so out of boredom, or found the screeds too tedious, or too funny to take seriously, or maybe they were astonished at some of the advice being offered. Faces turned upwards to behold and follow those who posted most, perhaps in innocent acknowledgement that they were so well educated in the company in question, by sheer dint of their regular appearances on the thread.

Some even appeared to become fence jumpers (I love it, I don’t). Many panicked, very often without fair and just cause. But had the panickers been reading some of the numerous posts, it is perhaps little wonder. To a new investor, there has been much to scare him or her into selling. Just as,on the other hand, there have been many posts where one needs experience to filter out hype, pumping/dumping, smoke and mirrors, you name it, it’s all in this thread. Along with some odd grammar; their/there, or, company’s or companies, now which is which?

A certain poster has alluded to poor spelling in the past, maybe not here, but definitely elsewhere. But it’s worth a laugh sometimes, and they should egxpect (sp??) the odd spelling mistake, surely? Perhaps poor spelling emanates from the modern day txt spk(!).

Now, some many years later, what do they know and understand about PEB? Not the shareprice, the business. (Did they buy the business, or the share?) From one or two posters, they should know much, for they have given freely of a great deal of their time to help all to understand this company. And thanks are due to them. So, are all now well informed, having of course also done their own diligent research, and are they patient, or impatient, in, or out? Or having a bob each way, depending on the day? Are they investing in the share price, or the business? Or simply going around in circles?

Maybe, for some, this thread is the greatest teaching platform, for investor psychology.

I stole a post from Mac on the ATM thread (thanks Mac) “Well, perhaps the only uncertainty is that there may not be any uncertainty.”

And so they continue to pontificate............... And are they any further advanced?

Oh dear, I should of (grammar?) never started this! But don’t all you posters stop, it’s such exsellant (?) entertainment!

It’s ok people, there is a man in a white coat at my door.... I have all this noise in my head –buy/sell, sell/buy, panic/don’t panic, who, which, what, when, why? I am but an innocent bystander, watching all the posts go by.

Absolutely no offence intended to any poster, after all, there are definitely some excellent posts on this thread.

[Bobcat.]

Technical wedge forming:

108 support has held for three days now but sellers have driven down intra-day high from 113 to 112 to 111.

A breakthrough 112 would put the bulls in control (and signal a buy IMO); whereas a breakthrough 108 would signal the bears once again in control.

Monday's on the nzx are typically bearish and so if 108 holds firm today, I expect that will be a good sign (NASDAQ Bio Index holding) for the rest of the week.

[Dentie]

Neverin the history of Sharetrader have so many had so much to opine.

And so they began to pontificate about PEB, the little New Zealand business, many hundreds of pages and thousands of posts ago. They held forth, declaimed, preached, sounded off, spouted off, gave sermons, lectures, extolled, decried, dogmatised (sometimes absurdly?), some partook in a game of one upmanship to show their knowledge (and sometimes their lack of), surmised, conflagrated, summarised,supposed, extrapolated, assumed (assumption, the mother of all stuff ups?), speculated (a great deal), planted doom and gloom, hype and hoopla, and sometimes theymade personal attacks (signs of desperation?).

So, really, have many of them had something solid and worthwhile to put forward? Or has it become all to much (or is that too much?) to any longer come to some sort of decision?

Some left, others took their place. Perhaps some of those that left did so out of boredom, or found the screeds too tedious, or too funny to take seriously, or maybe they were astonished at some of the advice being offered. Faces turned upwards to behold and follow those who posted most, perhaps in innocent acknowledgement that they were so well educated in the company in question, by sheer dint of their regular appearances on the thread.

Some even appeared to become fence jumpers (I love it, I don’t). Many panicked, very often without fair and just cause. But had the panickers been reading some of the numerous posts, it is perhaps little wonder. To a new investor, there has been much to scare him or her into selling. Just as,on the other hand, there have been many posts where one needs experience to filter out hype, pumping/dumping, smoke and mirrors, you name it, it’s all in this thread. Along with some odd grammar; their/there, or, company’s or companies, now which is which?

A certain poster has alluded to poor spelling in the past, maybe not here, but definitely elsewhere. But it’s worth a laugh sometimes, and they should egxpect (sp??) the odd spelling mistake, surely? Perhaps poor spelling emanates from the modern day txt spk(!).

Now, some many years later, what do they know and understand about PEB? Not the shareprice, the business. (Did they buy the business, or the share?) From one or two posters, they should know much, for they have given freely of a great deal of their time to help all to understand this company. And thanks are due to them. So, are all now well informed, having of course also done their own diligent research, and are they patient, or impatient, in, or out? Or having a bob each way, depending on the day? Are they investing in the share price, or the business? Or simply going around in circles?

Maybe, for some, this thread is the greatest teaching platform, for investor psychology.

I stole a post from Mac on the ATM thread (thanks Mac) “Well, perhaps the only uncertainty is that there may not be any uncertainty.”

And so they continue to pontificate............... And are they any further advanced?

Oh dear, I should of (grammar?) never started this! But don’t all you posters stop, it’s such exsellant (?) entertainment!

It’s ok people, there is a man in a white coat at my door.... I have all this noise in my head –buy/sell, sell/buy, panic/don’t panic, who, which, what, when, why? I am but an innocent bystander, watching all the posts go by.

Absolutely no offence intended to any poster, after all, there are definitely some excellent posts on this thread.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha ........................

Noah fence!

[Joshuatree]

"BULLRUSH"! ..... at the guy in the white coat; past and present:)

[winner69]

To much Humbug me thinks.. :-))

Just wait for the figures :-))


Disc.. Holding.

Jeremy Grantham said "Volatility is a symptom that people have no idea of the underlying value"

Janner - as no one has no idea of the underlying value (not me or MAC or Harbour Capital) there has to ve volatility

It's all a punt ....today's value is what it is

[winner69]

And Sparks mate Ben said "You are neither right nor wrong because people agree with you."

[winner69]

What's PEB sales going to be this half year? What's PEB worth?

Yogi Berra has good advice "It is hard to make predictions, especially about the future."

[Tsuba]

Tis a tempest in my mind.

[Bobcat.]

Meanwhile, traders are going to take it lower. Looking for a break of lower bollinger band @ 98 cents this week (always bounces afterwards; could move lower in meantime so stay sharp!). Shall trade to it ;)

I have a different view, Moose. Remember that this stock is now in the NZX50. I'm confident institutional buying will keep its price above the psychological support level of $1. It's no better than an educated guess of course but I'm picking $1.05 as this week's higher low...with a breakthrough today's high of $1.11 sometime this week. As soon as we get a higher high, it's time to buy more. Trading to it.

[Copper]

I have a different view, Moose. Remember that this stock is now in the NZX50. I'm confident institutional buying will keep its price above the psychological support level of $1. It's no better than an educated guess of course but I'm picking $1.05 as this week's higher low...with a breakthrough today's high of $1.11 sometime this week. As soon as we get a higher high, it's time to buy more. Trading to it.
If you can read the institutions minds you are pretty good.I think though that if they get the feel of a falling market they may well sell and think about buying back later to balance the portfolio.Nothing more than shorting really.Could lead to a bit of instability till some results come about later in month.

[Goldstein]

To mere mortals such as myself it looks like it is drifting sideways on low volume without any news or impact from the US.

[Minerbarejet]

Neverin the history of Sharetrader have so many had so much to opine.

And so they began to pontificate about PEB, the little New Zealand business, many hundreds of pages and thousands of posts ago. They held forth, declaimed, preached, sounded off, spouted off, gave sermons, lectures, extolled, decried, dogmatised (sometimes absurdly?), some partook in a game of one upmanship to show their knowledge (and sometimes their lack of), surmised, conflagrated, summarised,supposed, extrapolated, assumed (assumption, the mother of all stuff ups?), speculated (a great deal), planted doom and gloom, hype and hoopla, and sometimes theymade personal attacks (signs of desperation?).

So, really, have many of them had something solid and worthwhile to put forward? Or has it become all to much (or is that too much?) to any longer come to some sort of decision?

Some left, others took their place. Perhaps some of those that left did so out of boredom, or found the screeds too tedious, or too funny to take seriously, or maybe they were astonished at some of the advice being offered. Faces turned upwards to behold and follow those who posted most, perhaps in innocent acknowledgement that they were so well educated in the company in question, by sheer dint of their regular appearances on the thread.

Some even appeared to become fence jumpers (I love it, I don’t). Many panicked, very often without fair and just cause. But had the panickers been reading some of the numerous posts, it is perhaps little wonder. To a new investor, there has been much to scare him or her into selling. Just as,on the other hand, there have been many posts where one needs experience to filter out hype, pumping/dumping, smoke and mirrors, you name it, it’s all in this thread. Along with some odd grammar; their/there, or, company’s or companies, now which is which?

A certain poster has alluded to poor spelling in the past, maybe not here, but definitely elsewhere. But it’s worth a laugh sometimes, and they should egxpect (sp??) the odd spelling mistake, surely? Perhaps poor spelling emanates from the modern day txt spk(!).

Now, some many years later, what do they know and understand about PEB? Not the shareprice, the business. (Did they buy the business, or the share?) From one or two posters, they should know much, for they have given freely of a great deal of their time to help all to understand this company. And thanks are due to them. So, are all now well informed, having of course also done their own diligent research, and are they patient, or impatient, in, or out? Or having a bob each way, depending on the day? Are they investing in the share price, or the business? Or simply going around in circles?

Maybe, for some, this thread is the greatest teaching platform, for investor psychology.

I stole a post from Mac on the ATM thread (thanks Mac) “Well, perhaps the only uncertainty is that there may not be any uncertainty.”

And so they continue to pontificate............... And are they any further advanced?

Oh dear, I should of (grammar?) never started this! But don’t all you posters stop, it’s such exsellant (?) entertainment!

It’s ok people, there is a man in a white coat at my door.... I have all this noise in my head –buy/sell, sell/buy, panic/don’t panic, who, which, what, when, why? I am but an innocent bystander, watching all the posts go by.

Absolutely no offence intended to any poster, after all, there are definitely some excellent posts on this thread.
Where's Neverin?

[Minerbarejet]

Miner, you just have far too much time on your hands. :DFunny you should say that, thats what the jeweller said when I walked in wearing two watches.:)

[Minerbarejet]

I thought PEB's testy thing allowed the doctor to check you over without exposing the family jewels. :cool:I dont think its designed to take the sample at the bottom of your trouser leg.:)

[nextbigthing]

I dont think its designed to take the sample at the bottom of your trouser leg.:)


*NBT's comment has been blocked due to it's inappropriate nature*

[mis chief]

Where's Neverin?

Never you mind! Actually, I had a few attempts at editing to get a space in there, but gremlins had other ideas. Take it up with admin?

I'm enjoying the humour, seems some cobwebs have been blown away.

[Minerbarejet]

Never you mind! Actually, I had a few attempts at editing to get a space in there, but gremlins had other ideas. Take it up with admin?

I'm enjoying the humour, seems some cobwebs have been blown away.You dont need to use a depthcharge to blow away cobwebs, a simple whisk with a broom will suffice.:)

[mis chief]

You dont need to use a depthcharge to blow away cobwebs, a simple whisk with a broom will suffice.:)

Ahh, maybe, maybe not, but it was fun putting it together. Couldn't find the broom anyway, it was whisked off long ago.

Enjoy your wicked humour, by the way.

[Minerbarejet]

Ahh, maybe, maybe not, but it was fun putting it together. Couldn't find the broom anyway, it was whisked off long ago.

Enjoy your wicked humour, by the way.Thank goodness you are OK. I thought for a minute you had accidentally swallowed a thesaurus.
Cheers:)

[mis chief]

Thank goodness you are OK. I thought for a minute you had accidentally swallowed a thesaurus.
Cheers:)

Um, what's a thesaurus? Sounds painful, could be less so to take one of these here tests people love to love, love to hate, would be my definitive opinion!

Time I was not here, they're letting me out tomorrow, big day ahead. :scared: but :sneaky2:

[Minerbarejet]

Um, what's a thesaurus? Sounds painful, could be less so to take one of these here tests people love to love, love to hate, would be my definitive opinion!

Time I was not here, they're letting me out tomorrow, big day ahead. :scared: but :sneaky2:Look it up in the dictionary. Have a nice day.:)

[stoploss]

Sorry to say chaps but the US market is not taking the latest jobs report well and futures are well down right now. More pain ahead tomorrow I suspect...

Moosie where the day starts is not where it ends , best just get a good nights sleep .Then see where the next day takes you after 40 winks.

[stoploss]

Ain't losing any sleep over it, just habit checking before going to sleep. Looks like it recovered pretty well. See where today takes us eh? May post a short term chart up to give some perspective in later.

150 odd point rally from the lows in the DOW , that's pretty solid .

[In4a$]

[QUOTE=moosie_900;478955]Traders view of the situation. Enjoy!

Thanks Moosie, Nice chart, Highlights the mistake I made paying $1.48 for a top up in March. !! Long term hold so will come right eventually.

[Copper]

Traders view of the situation. Enjoy!

5782
As mentioned,am no chartist but you mention higher lows being a possible bullish sign.Have we not got lower highs at the same time?.Is this the moment when they will meet in the middle and could go either way.Just a question regarding your post only.cheers...

[Slam dunk]

Has anyone read this? Expensive I know.
http://www.reportbuyer.com/pharma_healthcare/diagnostics/world_market_cancer_diagnostics_5th_edition_precis ion_personalized_testing_arrives.html

[Goldstein]

57895790It's interesting to compare PEB and XRO at the moment. They have striking similarities over the last week.

[Goldstein]

Yes, I think you're quite right Moosie. It's quite telling too that the SP's have dropped almost by the same proportion of 33%.

With people taking defensive positions, it really does seem to me that there are some buying opportunities developing, The only worry I have is have we seen enough of a tech-correction?

5791

NDQ red, S&P500 blue, DJI green

[Goldstein]

I agree, but I just have a bit of a contrarian itch at the moment. I've dipped my toe back in PEB and I'm thinking I'll pick up a few XRO tomorrow. Not going the full Couta or anything :)

[In4a$]

Sold CAV yesterday with tidy profit, thought I'd top up PEB, but, Yeah Nah, I think best to wait till they put out some good news.

[skid]

Careful, the pain ain't over on the NASDAQ or Biotech index yet. Use your charts to look for oversold levels (clue: we ain't there yet!)

Yes -1.66% will most likely erase yesterdays gains ,possibly more.

[skid]

Just goes to show much influence macro influences have over shareprices. When the market is very bullish as per last year and early this one we saw a massive climb in spec stocks with very little fundamebtals to go on (other than PS ratios and hope!). Now that the market is no longer to pay those multiples the money has flowed elsewhere, mostly blue chips (just look at MRP, MELCA, GNE, AIR, SUM etc). This shows that investors are wary of the market climbing further and are playing defensively, but not too fearful of a crash.

IMHO, it's consolidation/stasis time to let the market catch up to the valuations. Only companies that perform according to or better than expectations are going to be rewarded in this environment.

Soon enough, we shall see if PEB can meet or exceed those expectations.

Disc - definitely on the sidelines until I see some numbers!

It may well be that we are shifting phases as far as the market goes (as you say)
This,if it carries on into that phase,will also require a shift in the way of thinking to a more conservative basis.
The gamblers out there may find it either boring or painful depending on how they play.

All that easy money(QE) had to go somewhere--and now the lack of that easy money has to ''not'' go somewhere.

[Goldstein]

Yes -1.66% will most likely erase yesterdays gains ,possibly more.

It looks like an interesting day ahead. The drop overnight in the US was on reasonably low volumes - as one commentator said there was no volume spike. It will be interesting to see how PEB fares.

[winner69]

It looks like an interesting day ahead. The drop overnight in the US was on reasonably low volumes - as one commentator said there was no volume spike. It will be interesting to see how PEB fares.

goldie - you might be interested in this article

even if you don't read as 'are we in a bubble' it is a good insight into what drives biotech prices, both mature companies to ones just starting to generate +ve cash flows

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox/is-there-a-biotech-bubble

[BlackPeter]

goldie - you might be interested in this article

even if you don't read as 'are we in a bubble' it is a good insight into what drives biotech prices, both mature companies to ones just starting to generate +ve cash flows

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox/is-there-a-biotech-bubble

Thanks for the link. Very worthwhile reading to get some better background on the sector and helping to put PEB into context ...

[Goldstein]

goldie - you might be interested in this article

even if you don't read as 'are we in a bubble' it is a good insight into what drives biotech prices, both mature companies to ones just starting to generate +ve cash flows

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox/is-there-a-biotech-bubble

Cheers Winner - that's a fantastic article. I've just skimmed it and will read it more slowly after work tonight. I especially like:
"The important factor that many analysts ignore is the probability for a product’s success, which varies by the clinical trial phase and therapeutic area. "

It's really refreshing to hear somebody talking about probabilities..

[Bobcat.]

Wow - a full 24 hrs without a single post...that has to be a record for this thread. Stocks less loved are of course often worth watching for a rebound.

PEB has yet to break through this week's selling cap confirmed for three days as sitting at 112 cps. In spite of the NASDAQ being down overnight (with the DJIA and S&P500 both up!), PEB is still hugging 112.

The opposite of a 'stop-loss' I like to call a 'start-profit', which I have sitting at 114 cps as a buy- trigger for a top up.

From there, I expect it will be onward and upward. Trading to it.


BC

[Balance]

Seen it all before, folks - sp under pressure for a while, then buying presence on the backfoot.

Notice how someone (maybe 1 or 2 or more) happily come in and take out stock everyday? Even when Nasdaq is down and the traders are panicking out?

Something positive in the offing, like has happened in the past?

[skid]

Seen it all before, folks - sp under pressure for a while, then buying presence on the backfoot.

Notice how someone (maybe 1 or 2 or more) happily come in and take out stock everyday? Even when Nasdaq is down and the traders are panicking out?

Something positive in the offing, like has happened in the past?

Thats been the trend lately (its done very well of late in holding its SP)--But that certainly was'nt the case a few weeks back.(that was panic--this isnt panic)

[psychic]

Don't want to bang on about the old several tens of 000's issue, but I emailed DD again with this:

"I hate to raise this again but have to say that the ODT have told me that they stand by the quote.
The share price rocketed from around $1.30 to $1.70 shortly after this statement. The statement was not retracted by PEB.
Insiders including the Chairman then significantly sold down in March and the SP began to tank.
Your response to the NZX regarding the sharp price decline was that you “do not have any information not disclosed to the market”

The SP is currently $1.08. My question is, would the Chairman make the same comment today?
I really think we need some clarification because it would look very bad indeed if the Penn Lab does not now process “several tens of thousands” of tests this year."


And this morning I received this reply from David Darling :

"Thanks for your email. To repeat myself. The chairman could in no way have that knowledge to make that statement. We don’t internally have that knowledge. We cannot predict the penetration rate so I hope that this helps your perception of the numbers that the lab will do. To address your other concerns. The sale of shares by the chair some several months after this media article was in no way based on anything that the company was doing. Im disappointed.
Tio help with the information process we are looking to put together a laboratory through-put table that we would look to put out quarterly. Then as we push tests through everyone can see true progress.
I hope this helps.
Many thanks
Regards Dave"

[Harvey Specter]

So he "could in no way have had that knowledge to make that statement" does not mean he didn't make that statement and is all the more reason why that statement should have been corrected.

EDIT: IMHO he is on the back foot. He knows he probably should have corrected the statement back then (I am 100% positive he would have read the article) but since he didn't, and so much time has now passed, there is nothing he can now do about it.

[Tsuba]

Give the guy a break and let him get on with his job. Doesn't his last paragraph give you graph huging number crunching geeks something to get excited about.

" Tio help with the information process we are looking to put together a laboratory through-put table that we would look to put out quarterly. Then as we push tests through everyone can see true progress.
I hope this helps.
Many thanks
Regards Dave"

[Trigger]

I think the potential development and publication of a lead indicator is great news for those of us who are not close to the action. Let's see what they might roll out.

[Trigger]

I think he wasn't happy about the implied line of questioning. Yes, a defensive response, as another poster pointed out. But I am pleased if the persistence of Psychic, T and others has promulgated the development of lead indicators disclosed on a quarterly basis. That's great news for everybody.

[baller18]

So he "could in no way have had that knowledge to make that statement" does not mean he didn't make that statement and is all the more reason why that statement should have been corrected.

EDIT: IMHO he is on the back foot. He knows he probably should have corrected the statement back then (I am 100% positive he would have read the article) but since he didn't, and so much time has now passed, there is nothing he can now do about it.

Definitely would've seen the article, be naïve of anyone to think he didn't...

It's either,

A - They shouldn't have indicated sales to the public when nothing was sure of.
B - They are not achieving 10's of thousands of tests (or sales), would've been more clear if psychic emphasized on sales? or tests?
C - They are achieving the number of tests or sales...
D - Time will tell....
E - Blobbles said DD would report quarterly sales if sales were meaningful

[baller18]

Just tell me how many ****ing tests you've done, dave.


You got your house on this or something BE?
Should change our name back to BE newguy haha

[forest]

[QUOTE=NewGuy;479584]Just tell me how many ****ing tests you've done, dave.[/QUOTE


I want to know how many paid test are carried out !

[forest]

[QUOTE=NewGuy;479584]Just tell me how many ****ing tests you've done, dave.[/QUOTE


I want to know how many paid test are carried out !

[Minerbarejet]

And he said that you said that he said that I said that we said that OTG said that cs said that, but that wasnt what he said, you said.

Is that clear!

Good news on the quarterly- will save a lot of strife, anguish, gnashing of teeth, ulcers and outright speculation on this thread.
Now we can go through all of the above in three month sections instead of six.:)

[nextbigthing]

[QUOTE=NewGuy;479584]Just tell me how many ****ing tests you've done, dave.[/QUOTE


I want to know how many paid test are carried out !

Screw paid test numbers, I want to know the shareprice from six months time now!

And I want an icecream.

[Xerof]

I think quarterly is too irregular.

I'd prefer knowing at the end of each day.

Maybe a lunchtime heads-up giving us the number of courier bags delivered at 11am.

And the weight of each bag, just to refine it a little bit more, perhaps.


Psychic, good effort. I'm very happy with a quarterly report (and an ice-cream with chocolate)

[Goldstein]

What do you think DD meant with his sentence "I'm disappointed."?

I get the feeling he had another sentence in there and decided to delete it. So something like - I'm disappointed you think the Chair's sale ...

It may be that his responses are vetted by a PR person within the company.

All just guesses.

[Copper]

Seen it all before, folks - sp under pressure for a while, then buying presence on the backfoot.

Notice how someone (maybe 1 or 2 or more) happily come in and take out stock everyday? Even when Nasdaq is down and the traders are panicking out?

Something positive in the offing, like has happened in the past?

Balance....If you take the opposite tack,could not the big sellers like the Masfen's just be sitting there blasting away when your punters (traders) start trying to push the price.This selling has been going on for weeks.The only time it rises out of the band seems to be when their broker has gone for a coffee......cheers.

[Balance]

Balance....If you take the opposite tack,could not the big sellers like the Masfen's just be sitting there blasting away when your punters (traders) start trying to push the price.This selling has been going on for weeks.The only time it rises out of the band seems to be when their broker has gone for a coffee......cheers.

Share register over last 2 months certainly confirmed one major holder selling down who stopped selling 29 March.

Reasonable volume done down to $1.00 so could be traders now just trading in and out.

[Rego55]

goldie - you might be interested in this article

even if you don't read as 'are we in a bubble' it is a good insight into what drives biotech prices, both mature companies to ones just starting to generate +ve cash flows

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outs...biotech-bubble




Thanks very much for the article - a really interesting read.

[Slam dunk]

Hi all, I know we're expecting reporting in May some time but does anyone know the specific date? Thanks in advance. SD

[skid]

NBI down 1.88% PEB held up pretty well the other day when NBI was down .66% but (dare I say it)this could be a test.

[Minerbarejet]

NBI down 1.88% PEB held up pretty well the other day when NBI was down .66% but (dare I say it)this could be a test.nbi up 26% since may 8 2013. Peb up 83% -11% dilution (I think) since may8 2013. Doing quite nicely I would have thought.

[Slam dunk]

Have a look here:

HyperLink Pacific Edge - Calendar of Events (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news-and-media/calendar-of-events/)



Thanks Hancocks, sorry that was lazy of me.

[biker]

Don't want to bang on about the old several tens of 000's issue, but I emailed DD again with this:

"I hate to raise this again but have to say that the ODT have told me that they stand by the quote.
The share price rocketed from around $1.30 to $1.70 shortly after this statement. The statement was not retracted by PEB.
Insiders including the Chairman then significantly sold down in March and the SP began to tank.
Your response to the NZX regarding the sharp price decline was that you “do not have any information not disclosed to the market”

The SP is currently $1.08. My question is, would the Chairman make the same comment today?
I really think we need some clarification because it would look very bad indeed if the Penn Lab does not now process “several tens of thousands” of tests this year."


And this morning I received this reply from David Darling :

"Thanks for your email. To repeat myself. The chairman could in no way have that knowledge to make that statement. We don’t internally have that knowledge. We cannot predict the penetration rate so I hope that this helps your perception of the numbers that the lab will do. To address your other concerns. The sale of shares by the chair some several months after this media article was in no way based on anything that the company was doing. Im disappointed.
Tio help with the information process we are looking to put together a laboratory through-put table that we would look to put out quarterly. Then as we push tests through everyone can see true progress.
I hope this helps.
Many thanks
Regards Dave"


Thanks psychic. So either the ODT got it wrong or misinterpreted a comment, (despite their denials) or the Chairman got carried away and made a comment that had no basis. Either way, I cant see it's an issue except if its the latter, someone needs to have a conversation with the Chairman.

The "I'm disapointed" comment comes after the sales by the chair comment. DD obviously dissapointed that the chair was selling.

The end ( and good) result is a pending regular lab throughput report which should remove a heck of a lot of speculation and with any luck reduce considerably the number of less than useful posts on this thread!

Noah fence meant.

[geo]

Don't want to bang on about the old several tens of 000's issue, but I emailed DD again with this:

"I hate to raise this again but have to say that the ODT have told me that they stand by the quote.
The share price rocketed from around $1.30 to $1.70 shortly after this statement. The statement was not retracted by PEB.
Insiders including the Chairman then significantly sold down in March and the SP began to tank.
Your response to the NZX regarding the sharp price decline was that you “do not have any information not disclosed to the market”

The SP is currently $1.08. My question is, would the Chairman make the same comment today?
I really think we need some clarification because it would look very bad indeed if the Penn Lab does not now process “several tens of thousands” of tests this year."


And this morning I received this reply from David Darling :

"Thanks for your email. To repeat myself. The chairman could in no way have that knowledge to make that statement. We don’t internally have that knowledge. We cannot predict the penetration rate so I hope that this helps your perception of the numbers that the lab will do. To address your other concerns. The sale of shares by the chair some several months after this media article was in no way based on anything that the company was doing. Im disappointed.
Tio help with the information process we are looking to put together a laboratory through-put table that we would look to put out quarterly. Then as we push tests through everyone can see true progress.
I hope this helps.
Many thanks
Regards Dave"



If the chairman does not have knowledge re the penetration rate I think it's about time he looked into it, IMO
the chairman should be updated at least monthly. As shareholders of this company we all own small bits of the business and management are our employees and have a duty to protect the investors funds, inform investors regularly and hopefully increase it's value.

I'm sure the like's of Masfen's get the information they require to insure there funds invested are being looked after. It's good to hear we might look forward to quarterly results, As a growth company Peb can not be faulted now we need to see how management will take over from the scientists and turn this into a cash cow.

Or as New Guy so eloquently put it Show us the ******* sales.

[Harvey Specter]

If the chairman does not have knowledge re the penetration rate I think it's about time he looked into it, IMOI interpreted this as FUTURE penetration. When you are growing from zero, it is very hard to predict compared to a well established company.

[psychic]

I interpreted this as FUTURE penetration. When you are growing from zero, it is very hard to predict compared to a well established company.

Yup, agree HS.

Anyways, I've written back as follows :

I sincerely apologise for the inference, it is polar opposite to the absolute confidence and trust I really have in you and PEL.
Yes, Quarterly test numbers would be very much appreciated I am sure.

[MAC]

I'm sure PEB do very much so assess the market Geo and have done since all that good market analysis information they released in 2011, but disclosing internal sales targets to the market at this early stage is another matter;

Interestingly, at last year’s AGM David Darling told us that they have quite aggressive sales targets, but IMO at this stage any early sales figures are just noise in the big picture and PEB have done the right thing in not releasing those targets at this time as they are not 'meaningful'.

Black Knat has kindly told us, thank you Black Knat, that Edision and a London based biotech analyst have been engaged for another market assessment and a valuation workup, and the timing for this is about right to do so when a product is just entering it's target market.

PEDusa like any other company will be starting to formulate targets for their sales staff going forward now too and there is some evidence of this if you read the job descriptions of those being hired during the present ramp up, Jackie Walker seems to have that in hand thus far.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/careers/strategic-accounts-manager?stage=Stage

[Schrodinger]

Thats nice MAC but the company is currently (over) valued at $500M on (zero) $300k revenue. They better start cranking that lab to justify the speculation.

[psychic]

Thats nice MAC but the company is currently (over) valued at $500M on (zero) $300k revenue. They better start cranking that lab to justify the speculation.

$347m mkt cap at the moment Schrodinger but you are right - should be $500m. :)
Historical sales figure is irrelevent

Oops ignore, answered by NG

[Schrodinger]

Was referring to the $1.70 or so price a while back. Sorry to all those who bought in then

[benjitara]

At this point I'm almost thinking that we could all play main roles in the stage production of "the smurfs" we're all so blue in the face with all this talk. The more waiting we do the better.

[skid]

bearing in mind MAC you believe PEB shareprice is worth $1.70 where do you think the sp is going to be 1 week after the following sale's results.... I have added my opinion
less than 1000 snapiti thinks 70cps here we come
1000-2000 snapiti thinks 90cps-1.00
3000-5000 snapiti thinks will support share price of $1.15-1.30
5000-10000 snapiti thinks 1.40-1.60
10000 + snapiti thinks new highs $1.75 +
Of course it may alter depending on the spin.
Anyone else care to have a go......
It will be interesting to look back on.

That sounds about right considering that the SP went from .50-$1.50 in a matter of days--It will be time for those on board (in the announcements) to produce--doesnt have to be astronomical--but there needs to be progress.
Having said that,it is holding up well today considering that the NBI tanked a bit--anticipation for the announcement must be stronger than market sentiment.

[NZSilver]

Hopefully all is well - however I think traction will be slow

Its just how it goes when a new product enters the medical world, it takes a while before people adopt a new test (its human nature to stick to old faithful and what you already know), yes there may be a few tests anaylsed by the lab (100's to 1000's) but I suspect a high proportion of them will be free cxbladder "test" tests given to doctors to try. I feel there will be very few actual tests sold.

I think the price will drop as some people are disappointed - and I will be looking to pick some more shares up between 80-88 cents (thats a complete guess for the hell of it - predictions really are pointless this early on)

Dont get me wrong, I think this is a great product (superior to the current procedures/diagnostics) - however history has shown us multiple times that the best product dosn't always win - so there is a huge amount of risk still between now, adoption, profit and onto 100 mil revenue.

Im sitting on a few but have some cash sideline too - I think having all your skin in this could result in tears. (its easy to get caught up in the hype)

Now and then you have to look at the facts, PEB to date is still unprofitable and a spec stock, meaning things can change very quickly as we have seen over the last year.

[Longhaul]

I am however strongly of the view that the size of the opportunity with Cxbladder in the US has been seriously underestimated for the reasons I have already posted about. I am hoping there will be some indication in the commentary to the full year to this effect. Anyone else done any resent research on the size of the opportunity?

Interesting and good question. I just ran some very rough calculations based on the 2007 AUA figures (link (https://www.auanet.org/education/guidelines/bladder-cancer.cfm#1)) with a few assumptions and my figures turned out to be very close to PEB's own estimate of 2 million tests in the US annually.

I agree this figure appears quite conservative. Given current follow-up testing procedures are based on expensive procedures their frequency must be tempered by cost and inconvenience.

If CXBladder proves to be a reliable alternative to cystoscopy and is validated by the AUA (imagine that), then I would expect the recommended frequency of checkups might increase. As you pointed out, some recent patients choose to be tested far more regularly than current guidelines. I absolutely would too given how easy and comparatively cheap it is to keep an eye out for recurrence using CXBladder.

Now the hard part is making assumptions about how many extra tests survivors may want to take on average. This will largely depend on their insurance plans and wealth. I wouldn't know where to start making even the most rudimentary guesses about this but happy to hear your thoughts.

[Minerbarejet]

If CXBladder proves to be a reliable alternative to cystoscopy and is validated by the AUA (imagine that), then I would expect the recommended frequency of checkups might increase.
My understanding is that cxbladder is intended to replace cytology and become an adjunct to cystoscopy and also become part of the clinical pathway for presentation of haematuria. Hancocks could give you a better idea perhaps or go to the website, there is a heap of information there

[nextbigthing]

Well, it has been some months now and there have been clinical trials undertaken; the long awaited USANZ presentation should have been published by the AUA now.

All the clinical trials so far have been very positive so surely it's safe to assume this will eventually lead to a positive outcome too. (For those who can wait longer than it takes for an ice cream to melt.)

[MAC]

The thing with growth stocks too is that by the time a preliminary FY report is released a company can have already advanced much further, esp for a company at the very beginning of a growth curve.

I've resolved now that the commentary will carry much more weight than any initial sales data accumulated over a few short months up to the end of March.

I hope CS, DD and JW have got together for that chat re consistency in what they tell the market and that we receive a nice crisp vision for the coming year, progress on the 2014 product releases, the size of the market for those products, spain, cxcolorectal, etc.

I'd be hopeful for some numerical guidance now too, perhaps maybe, but I suspect DD in particular is even more gun shy now than he was with a whole bunch of stock knockers emailing him every five minutes.

[Xerof]

For all you traders attending the AUA meeting in Orlando, Pacific Edge are at booth number 2362.

It's only a small meeting.........

[winner69]

The thing with growth stocks too is that by the time a preliminary FY report is released a company can have already advanced much further, esp for a company at the very beginning of a growth curve.

I've resolved now that the commentary will carry much more weight than any initial sales data accumulated over a few short months up to the end of March.

I hope CS, DD and JW have got together for that chat re consistency in what they tell the market and that we receive a nice crisp vision for the coming year, progress on the 2014 product releases, the size of the market for those products, spain, cxcolorectal, etc.

I'd be hopeful for some numerical guidance now too, perhaps maybe, but I suspect DD in particular is even more gun shy now than he was with a whole bunch of stock knockers emailing him every five minutes.

No no MAC

That's the Robinson's modus operandi

[Harvey Specter]

I'd be hopeful for some numerical guidance now too, perhaps maybe, but I suspect DD in particular is even more gun shy now than he was with a whole bunch of stock knockers emailing him every five minutes.I hope he takes the 'interest' he has had in that media article as a sign that we do need more regular guidance. I hope they announce the plan to release figures quarterly which should be able to be done within the first few days of the next quarter.

[MAC]

I hope he takes the 'interest' he has had in that media article as a sign that we do need more regular guidance. I hope they announce the plan to release figures quarterly which should be able to be done within the first few days of the next quarter.

Interesting Harvey, it would make sense too to start such a process from the beginning of a new financial year, so thus on that basis the first quarterly report perhaps should be due sometime in the first couple of weeks in July, just prior to the AGM in August.

Shouldn't expect much but teething sales again in that report but should set a nice baseline for assessing growth the following year.

[Minerbarejet]

Would be interested to know where " meaningful" kicks in. 100, 1000, 10000, 1000000 or even - 5000 would all be meaningful one way or another.
If they have sold 990 tests then the headline could be " PEB increases sales by 33000%"
Now that is meaningful.:)

[Minerbarejet]

Hi Miner. I would take meaningful to be:

That a very successful uptake has been achieved with clinicians; and, the test has been widely accepted into the clinical pathway and was being used regularly by many and there was substantial growth.
So putting two and two together and probably coming up with three, " reports would be forthcoming when they were meaningful" and the "proposed release of quarterly reports" suggests to me that things are going reasonably well. Unless they have shifted the goalposts and decided to let us know the sales uptake at a lowered meaningful standard from their original perception.

[Minerbarejet]

I'll just shut up now. 2+2 obviously make 3.
Lovely day here.:)

[drswag]

Working in administration (financial team) I find it hard to understand how hard it is to produce this through-put table. To me, it sounds like a two minute job... perhaps thirty minutes if you make it look fancy for publication on NZX

[Harvey Specter]

Working in administration (financial team) I find it hard to understand how hard it is to produce this through-put table. To me, it sounds like a two minute job... perhaps thirty minutes if you make it look fancy for publication on NZXNot hard at all and would be surprised if it want already disclosed (in some form) in the directors pack. If I was a director, I would be demanding it.

[MAC]

Certainly no company builds a 260,000 test per annum facility and holds further options on same floor expansion plans without having both researched the market and having the confidence to act on that research.

No one on this thread, as far as I'm aware is a clinician, and it is difficult to assess for yourself without allocating a lot of time or finding someone in the know, I've been fortunate in that my daughter is both a biochemist and a shareholder and this has helped me a lot with a general understanding.

There are a lot of very smart people at Pacific Edge with a lot of clinical expertise and experience in this field, just take a look at the advisory board, a lot of experienced within sector US sales folk are coming on board now too.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/careers/strategic-accounts-manager?stage=Stage

The very early part of the curve will be exploratory and modest, just as PEB have told us, but equally I think their 5 year goal of $100M in revenues is quite understated for specific reasons.

What may provide some confidence for those whom don’t have the luxury of time to do more may be a bit more analyst coverage.

The pending Edison report, if similar to the others prepared for NZ companies, may just do that and should provide us all with a lot more specific detail than we have access to at present.

[MAC]

Hi MAC, I think the only thing we differ on is that I'm giving Pacific Edge a lot more credit for work done in the USA prior to CLIA registration:

We know that some LUG’s had migrated from the ‘User Program’ to commercial arrangements with PEDUSA (how many now? - We don't know).

We know also that Dr. Joe DiTrolio and Dr. Guy Bernstein both American Board Certified Urologists have been using Cxbladder since 2011 and both have offered glowing endorsements.

These initial tests were undertaken in Dunedin. I recall a general conversation after an AGM (poss 2010 or 2011) where it was noted that some American urologists were so taken with Cxbladder that they were assisting Pacific Edge in getting it established.

We also know (searchable) that Pacific Edge Limited were attending and exhibiting Cxbladder at the American Urological Association meetings in Washington in 2011, Atlanta in 2012, San Diego in 2013 & soon to be Orlando in 2014. (San Francisco in 2010 rings a bell, but not quite sure on that one).

I think it is a fantastic company and a fantastic product; so I'm sure as heck not knocking it, I suppose I'm just realistically and aggressively optimistic. If I'm proven wrong, I shall seek the comfort of my beloved red wine, so all is not really lost. :D


Perhaps so Hancock’s, my 1,000 to 5,000 sales expectation is more based on the first sales announcement of October last year as having been a kickoff point, and PEB's strategic focus on having staff working on or with the big HMO's from the get go rather than having sales staff in cars visiting and chasing LUG urologists. An investment of staff time in client relationship building rather than in pursuing quick initial sales.

But, then I don’t think a sales result at this point in time is at all meaningful or representative of a trend whatever the number we may see, it's just too early up to 31 March with xmas, thanks giving, staff training, team building etc permitting.

I’m still chipping away on that Cxbladder(triage) market size work, I’ll PM you.

[samdaman]

as far as modelling the uptake of sales I would imagine that Cxbladder will have an S uptake curve. With how the sale model works (further tests needed to be prescribed after the initial test) I don't feel a linear model would be the the best to base expectations off otherwise the expectations for an 8 month figure would be somewhere in the $13.3m ball park.

Now with an S curve 8 months in out of 60 its nearly trivial to even bother about the amount of tests as if this model did hold then you'd be looking for a drastic peak in sales in around the 20 month mark where sales would sky rocket to that $100m goal. Even if you chose a linear model I can't see the full affect of test sales really being applicable until around the 20 month mark anyway as the rolling ball of tests wouldn't have fully started yet.

In short, the market may have picked a number in which dissapointment will take over and people will start jumping ship, but I feel people shouldn't so early on in the program given 8 months in isn't a substantial length of time on a sales model. To be blunt it seems the market is blood thirsty for some raw sales but at this point in time I can't seem to see why they should have any obscene amount under the belt. If they do, good stuff I'm keen to see PEB shoot off, but it looks like the bears may be in charge here.

In short I don't believe amount of tests should have too much weight on future value, however I think the report will have a big effect.

DISC: holding through the good and bad :)

[klid]

I dont know the full rakon story but I don't know if the comparison is appropriate.

It seems to me that the deals that were signed in October and the ones to come will ensure a critical uptake of the product alone.

[winner69]

I dont know the full rakon story but I don't know if the comparison is appropriate.

It seems to me that the deals that were signed in October and the ones to come will ensure a critical uptake of the product alone.

That's exactly the same comments dedicated shareholders were saying in 2006 about that company we not allowed to name

Sometimes the stories come true and we all get rich and sometimes the story is just that, a story.

Even the well managed company you mentioned with highly respected managers with world leading technology didn't make the story come true.

So PEB will either make us rich or make us poor

Sorry klid , couldn't resist it

[Minerbarejet]

In that case,can't wait until they announce 15 tests sold and the sp plummets, the I buy and they announce multiple HMO's signed on 5 days later :)
And I cant wait until they announce 15000 tests and the share price takes off and then they announce multiple HMO's signed on 5 days later.:):)

[Bobcat.]

In that case,can't wait until they announce 15 tests sold and the sp plummets, the I buy and they announce multiple HMO's signed on 5 days later :)

In two scenarios out of three, I plan to buy more than I'm currently holding:

Scenario A: Sales disappoint: share price falls, and I buy more under $1.00 a week or so later (once PEB is oversold);

Scenario B: Sales impress: I quickly buy more (averaging up) as momentum to the upside improves;

Scenario C: Sales are mediocre: I simply hang on to what I have, waiting for a new trend-line to be established before trading again.

Anyway, that's my plan and I'm sticking to it.

BC

[MAC]

It seems like a long time ago that Pacific Edge released their update, this one below, and it is easy over time to lose the message;

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/news/PEB-Investor-Update-13June13.pdf

The main reason that I don’t think this coming sales report means anything in assessing progress is because Pacific Edge have been consistently telling us that their early focus and use of staff resources is focused on building relationships with the big potential HMO customers.

It’s not been their intention to “cherry pick” early sales by door knocking, strategically there is a bigger picture and there is a much better strategic use of time and resource at this stage.

Sure there may be a few urologist sales rolling in and some of the user group studies have completed and whilst there will be lengthy approval processes, months, some may have started to roll over into sales, but probably not before the end of the reporting period to 31 March.

Investing is about buying the potential sure, and one must also have the patience to watch a company to do what they have told us they will do.

[couta1]

It seems like a long time ago that Pacific Edge released their update, this one below, and it is easy over time to lose the message;

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/news/PEB-Investor-Update-13June13.pdf

The main reason that I don’t think this coming sales report means anything in assessing progress is because Pacific Edge have been consistently telling us that their early focus and use of staff resources is focused on building relationships with the big potential HMO customers.

It’s not been their intention to “cherry pick” early sales by door knocking, strategically there is a bigger picture and there is a much better strategic use of time and resource at this stage.

Sure there may be a few urologist sales rolling in and some of the user group studies have completed and whilst there will be lengthy approval processes, months, some may have started to roll over into sales, but probably not before the end of the reporting period to 31 March.

Investing is about buying the potential sure, and one must also have the patience to watch a company to do what they have told us they will do.
Well said Mac and there will be no agreement on this thread as Traders and Investors are reading from two different pages IMO

[Goldstein]

I think we should all embrace a few weeks of silence on the speculation. All that can be said has been said (and more!).

Charts saying its consolidation time until reporting. No point even speculating there as Mr Market won't move until we get new data.

Save yourself some time and effort and analyse other stocks; there is always money to be made somewhere!

But Moosie you're interfering with my trading strategy of buying PEB when there are < 5 posts per day on this thread and selling when there are > 50 :).

Apologies, I couldn't resist.

[Bobcat.]

you missed the most likely scenario

Sales numbers are poor(2000 or less) but plenty of commentary from the company about the progress being made and some good reason's for lack of early sale's traction.
Share's continue to trade at current level's while the market works out if PEB is another RAK or we should show more patience and let management get on with the job.

OK Snapiti, I agree that there is more to consider than the company's sales figures but I do believe that recorded Sales will be the driver for any sp momentum shift come end of May / early June. I've posted my strategy. Assuming you have one, would you care to share yours?

Moosie, there's no harm speculating if it helps to identify possible scenarios and firm up a strategy. Yes, speculation is assumption-laden but provided we research well enough to validate those assumptions, it can be very useful as a predictive tool.

[Bobcat.]

Agreed Snapps - PEB is not yet a viable business. Sure it has much potential, but it also has much yet to prove. IMO, it remains speculative until such a time that sales (actual and forecast) are sufficient to produce a sustainable growth in earnings.

[MAC]

Pacific Edge have also told us, during the October 2013 capital raising, that it could take 12 months to close negotiations with those HMO’s, Kaiser Permanente, Intermountain and others, so we must allow them the time they told us it would take to do so.

Similarly, Pacific Edge have been keeping us up to date with Medicare discussions, Pacific Edge are already now a Medicare provider, and Chris Swan let us know in December that Obamacare requirements had to be worked through to finalise accreditation.

This is not unique to Pacific Edge the whole sector is working through the Obamacare processes, and all at the same time. Maybe, this occurred prior to 31 March, I suspect not, but even if so and either way any sales would not start to come through until the next reporting period.

“Mr Swann welcomed Obamacare as ''an opportunity'', but the legislative changes meant Pacific Edge had to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, but he hopes it will be through early in 2014. 'Because Obamacare is orientated around health benefits, it wants to see value gains through [our] tests, he said.”

2014 will be a big year for Pacific Edge and IMO they will do well and prosper, and the HY15 report in November will be the opportunity for investors to assess progress, but not FY14 so much.

[Snow Leopard]

So many bytes of disc space and bandwidth on this chattering of sparrows and not one of you has spotted this or asked the important question:

5810

Has Vince taken Hancocks Delete Button away?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Agreed Turmeric.

To be honest, I don't think that the management and board are up to the task. They've said and done a number of things that (to me) seem quite naive. They seem to be out of their league, and appear to be struggling to make the transition from lab to boardroom. IMHO, this company will only really fly when they get more professional governance and management in place. And that isn't likely to happen until they get bought out. I hope it happens soon, though, as I'm currently nursing quite a bad paper loss on them right now!

But the CEO has successfully commercialised technology in the past .... so I am told

Think he would know the ropes then

[biker]

................ Quote Originally Posted by NewGuy

Agreed Turmeric.

To be honest, I don't think that the management and board are up to the task. They've said and done a number of things that (to me) seem quite naive. They seem to be out of their league, and appear to be struggling to make the transition from lab to boardroom. IMHO, this company will only really fly when they get more professional governance and management in place. And that isn't likely to happen until they get bought out. I hope it happens soon, though, as I'm currently nursing quite a bad paper loss on them right now!........................


Just because you are "nursing quite a bad paper loss on them right now!" doesn't mean the management and board are not up to the task. In fact there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence to back up your view.
More likely either you bought at a frothy price or lack the patience for the company to prove itself?

[geo]

Hey Mac

What value would you put on Peb shares when one of the large biotech come knocking on the door again. Which they will, Peb is now a prime target the most important thing a small bio company has is it's technology and pipeline.

A platform technology and a diversified, robust pipeline are always attractive to a potential acquirer. Large biotechs are looking for small biotechs that have strong pipelines [ Peb]. Having done the hard yards to get this far it might look to some a shame to be taken over, This is always a very exciting area for investors.

[winner69]

Geo ....$2.50 maybe ...better than $1.70

And petty cash to the big ones

And probably an inevitable outcome

[Whipmoney]

The trouble with your post biker is that here are people such as myself who have made pretty good medium term returns on PEB that feel the same way as New Guy. If you can distance yourself from any emotional and $ ties to PEB and look at the situation impartially, it is not a good look and should have been handled better. Simple as that.

The problem (as I see it) lies more with your myopia and less so with management.

If you follow any of Hancocks/Mac's posts it would seem that the company is following their previously stated guidelines / goal-posts (reasonably) however if you held onto this stock dearly at $1.60-$1.70 then I would suggest you were being either a little too greedy or rather foolish (presuming your a value investor and not swing trading).

[MAC]

Hey Mac

What value would you put on Peb shares when one of the large biotech come knocking on the door again. Which they will, Peb is now a prime target the most important thing a small bio company has is it's technology and pipeline.

A platform technology and a diversified, robust pipeline are always attractive to a potential acquirer. Large biotechs are looking for small biotechs that have strong pipelines [ Peb]. Having done the hard yards to get this far it might look to some a shame to be taken over, This is always a very exciting area for investors.

Hi Geo,

Cxbladder(detect) is quantifiable as it's in the market place already, but a takeover candidate would also need to value the prospective product pipeline which PEB have invested years of very smart R&D and funding into.

Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxcolorectal, melanoma, gastric, endometrial etc and whatever else may be in earlier in development. Also, I think the access to research from the University of Otago has a value also.

Not to mention the patents, all that proprietary IP, and the regulatory approved operational laboratories in the US and NZ, and partnered lab agreement access in Australia and Spain.

By my assessment PEB Cxbladder(detect) alone is conservatively worth as a minimum $1.70.

I would scoff at a takeover bid short of $4.00, probably would not support one at all.

It’s gone a bit quiet since all that buzz back in December, mostly from the Brokers, Craig’s in particular, in the articles below,

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business

regards, Mac

[Whipmoney]

Hey Mac

What value would you put on Peb shares when one of the large biotech come knocking on the door again. Which they will, Peb is now a prime target the most important thing a small bio company has is it's technology and pipeline.

A platform technology and a diversified, robust pipeline are always attractive to a potential acquirer. Large biotechs are looking for small biotechs that have strong pipelines [ Peb]. Having done the hard yards to get this far it might look to some a shame to be taken over, This is always a very exciting area for investors.

My best guess would be somewhere betweeen 38-50c per share.

[MAC]

Hi Geo,

Cxbladder(detect) is quantifiable as it's in the market place already, but a takeover candidate would also need to value the prospective product pipeline which PEB have invested years of very smart R&D and funding into.

Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxcolorectal, melanoma, gastric, endometrial etc and whatever else may be in earlier in development. Also, I think the access to research from the University of Otago has a value also.

Not to mention the patents, all that proprietary IP, and the regulatory approved operational laboratories in the US and NZ, and partnered lab agreement access in Australia and Spain.

By my assessment PEB Cxbladder(detect) alone is conservatively worth as a minimum $1.70.

I would scoff at a takeover bid short of $4.00, probably would not support one at all.

It’s gone a bit quiet since all that buzz back in December, mostly from the Brokers, Craig’s in particular, in the articles below,

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11178639 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639)
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-edge-business (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business)

regards, Mac

[squirrel]

Hi Geo,

Cxbladder(detect) is quantifiable as it's in the market place already, but a takeover candidate would also need to value the prospective product pipeline which PEB have invested years of very smart R&D and funding into.

Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxcolorectal, melanoma, gastric, endometrial etc and whatever else may be in earlier in development. Also, I think the access to research from the University of Otago has a value also.

Not to mention the patents, all that proprietary IP, and the regulatory approved operational laboratories in the US and NZ, and partnered lab agreement access in Australia and Spain.

By my assessment PEB Cxbladder(detect) alone is conservatively worth as a minimum $1.70.

I would scoff at a takeover bid short of $4.00, probably would not support one at all.

It’s gone a bit quiet since all that buzz back in December, mostly from the Brokers, Craig’s in particular, in the articles below,

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business

regards, Mac
WOOOHOOO!!!
Now there's a positive comment if I've read one on this forum! Thanks Mac for your wise words:). I am a very new kid on the block and have with interest and "dismay" read some of these threads over the last few months. I know there is is always a bit of banter involved as well, but hey, lets keep it positive and look to the future PEB are on a winner here!

[Whipmoney]

Haha, careful there buddy, you might rub some people the wrong way ;) There are many on this forum that have held dearly to this stock (through the days of $1.70 and below) and I would suggest they are the least myopic, arguably even the least foolish of them all....

I sold most of my holding in the range you suggest, and I'm fine with my decisions. My opinion is what it is, take it or leave it. My point to Biker is, it is not just those that are sitting on paper loses, or even those that are hurting from the fall from $1.7 that hold similar views to NewGuy.

Anyway this has been done to death, I'm looking forward to some hard numbers now!

Well firstly I think that they have already heard my views back on pages 347-350 and 422-425



27-02-2014:

With PEB's Market Cap being now in excess of $500m and its current sales being less than $1m, I would be cautious about ascribing MAC's investment style to that of the Buffet/Graham Value Investing philosophy.

This is clearly a high-risk growth play and completely out of the realm of the Buffet Methodology.

On a more cheery note I think the current SP is mildly attractive. I would be interested in KW's or Hoop's TA commentary however.

[geo]

Hi Geo,

Cxbladder(detect) is quantifiable as it's in the market place already, but a takeover candidate would also need to value the prospective product pipeline which PEB have invested years of very smart R&D and funding into.

Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxcolorectal, melanoma, gastric, endometrial etc and whatever else may be in earlier in development. Also, I think the access to research from the University of Otago has a value also.

Not to mention the patents, all that proprietary IP, and the regulatory approved operational laboratories in the US and NZ, and partnered lab agreement access in Australia and Spain.

By my assessment PEB Cxbladder(detect) alone is conservatively worth as a minimum $1.70.

I would scoff at a takeover bid short of $4.00, probably would not support one at all.

It’s gone a bit quiet since all that buzz back in December, mostly from the Brokers, Craig’s in particular, in the articles below,

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business

regards, Mac

Thanks Mac

I guess it's wait and see I am picking later this year for an offer.

[MAC]

Not sure about positive, but consistent at least.

My guess would be that if we see a takeover bid this year it would occur shortly after Pacific Edge achieving profitability, guidance from the company is that this should occur at HY15 in November.

But with the SP being so absolutely oversold at present I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the papers tomorrow.

[Harvey Specter]

I do not think we will see any M&A activity until PEB puts some runs on the board. The positive narrative that buying PEB could be bought out by the likes of P&G for relative peanuts (but huge money for us) is also a negative; these biotechs can wait until traction (or not) has been made and sit on their hands until then. Why would they pay $1B+ for a company that, as of yet, has no traction in the market?because they know it works and they can use their distribution channels/influence to ensure it gets traction. If they let it get traction, that let that benefit accrue tonthe current shareholders.

XRO was a takeover target when it was cheap, not now that the price already factors in over 1m customers.

[skid]

WOOOHOOO!!!
Now there's a positive comment if I've read one on this forum! Thanks Mac for your wise words:). I am a very new kid on the block and have with interest and "dismay" read some of these threads over the last few months. I know there is is always a bit of banter involved as well, but hey, lets keep it positive and look to the future PEB are on a winner here!

Squirrel--just keep in mind that warm glow you are feeling is the same warm glow newbies like yourself felt when they bought in at $1.70

Like many have said -its a speculative stock(no matter what any one says to the contrary)--doesnt mean not to buy in with some of your investment money--but it was speculative at .50--speculative at 1.70-and speculative back down to 1.11---keep your feet on the ground.---Time will tell if its a Whooohooo or a boooohooow!

[Minerbarejet]

C Swann 23/10/13
Pacific Edge Chairman Chris Swann says the funds raised will provide funding to implement the roll out of the US sales force in pursuit of achieving $100 million of commercial sales of Cxbladder in the United States within five trading years.
“The Board is fully confident that the funds being raised will be sufficient to cover operating expenses until Pacific Edge achieves profitability."

D Darling 23/10/13

Pacific Edge Chief Executive David Darling says Cxbladder is gaining traction in the US since it was commercially launched in July this year by the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA (PEDUSA). Tests from US patients are now being processed at the company’s purpose built and fully operational laboratory in Hershey, Pennsylvania which received CLIA regulatory approval in March 2013.
“The sales and marketing teams are now actively marketing Cxbladder to Integrated Healthcare Providers, Large Urology Groups and Urologists and are focussing on building volume sales.” In the last few weeks Pacific Edge has also reached agreement with national provider FedMed to make Cxbladder available to 40 million Americans who use its 5500 hospitals and more than 600,000 clinicians, and more recently, America's Choice Provider Network (ACPN) which offers a medical network solution for more than 14 million Americans.
The bladder cancer diagnostic technology was now being made commercially available in the United States, Australia and New Zealand.

D Darling 29/11/13
"Revenues are starting to progress as we penetrate those markets," Darling said yesterday.

D Darling 23/10/13
Chief executive David Darling told BusinessDesk the company aims to beef up its US sales team from four to 20 as it targets large commercial players, where it sees greater scale in rolling out its CXbladder on its mission to reach annual revenue of $100 million within the next five years.
"It's a very doable target, and could come sooner," Darling said. "We're looking to bring the company to a place where it's cashflow positive as soon as possible" though it's too early to determine when it will reach profitability, he said.


In case some have short memories.

[nextbigthing]

1 million cases of Haematuria in the US each year.


Population of the States approx 317 million.


Therefore 1/317x100 = 0.315% of the population with Haematuria.


PEB has 40m + 14m + 8m covered = 62 million


62000000 x 0.315% = 195300 cases of Haematuria that will have PEB coverage


If 10%, ie 1 in 10 of these people decided peeing in to a cup was better than having a camera up the whowho and only got tested once (unlikely) then that would equate to 19530 tests P.A. at this early stage. That's 19530 cards sent to Doctors thanking them for not having the camera and 19530 people having a whiskey telling their mates that CXBladder is the way to go.


At $500 a test x 19530 that's almost $10000000 revenue. Again not bad IMHO at this early stage.


Also, it was only two days between announcing they had the FedMed agreement and annoucing the first commercial sales.
This suggests someone was definitely keen to use it and that's a very good sign as the PEB marketers must be doing their job. It also suggests at least some Urologists are open to change - the rest will be forced to change as the whiskey drinkers demand it when their turn comes around.

Management holding onto very large interests with no recent selling is also a positive.

Perhaps some are being a bit harsh on PEB and will be presently surprised (or disappointed when they have to buy back in at $2).

DYOR.

NBT

Disc Hold.

[Intel]

1 million cases of Haematuria in the US each year.


Population of the States approx 317 million.


Therefore 1/317x100 = 0.315% of the population with Haematuria.


PEB has 40m + 14m + 8m covered = 62 million


62000000 x 0.315% = 195300 cases of Haematuria that will have PEB coverage


If 10%, ie 1 in 10 of these people decided peeing in to a cup was better than having a camera up the whowho and only got tested once (unlikely) then that would equate to 19530 tests P.A. at this early stage. That's 19530 cards sent to Doctors thanking them for not having the camera and 19530 people having a whiskey telling their mates that CXBladder is the way to go.


At $500 a test x 19530 that's almost $10000000 revenue. Again not bad IMHO at this early stage.


Also, it was only two days between announcing they had the FedMed agreement and annoucing the first commercial sales.
This suggests someone was definitely keen to use it and that's a very good sign as the PEB marketers must be doing their job. It also suggests at least some Urologists are open to change - the rest will be forced to change as the whiskey drinkers demand it when their turn comes around.

Management holding onto very large interests with no recent selling is also a positive.

Perhaps some are being a bit harsh on PEB and will be presently surprised (or disappointed when they have to buy back in at $2).

DYOR.

NBT

Disc Hold.

wow you are so wrong. You should try and understand exactly what the commercial relationships are with the US partners. You wouldn't be so happy owning peb.

The brilliant irony of the letters "DYOR"

[MAC]

That maybe a little unfair intel, do reflect on that, Nextbigthing is just throwing around some numbers for discussion and to compare analysis, and you have not proven he is wrong or put forward an alternative.

Pacific Edge will not announce which insurers they already have or will have under billing agreements, there are hundreds of them in the US and it would just serve to clog the NZX.

My understanding is that Pacific Edge have not told us how many insurers they now have associated with the FedMed, ACPN or Stratose provider networks, perhaps they will in the full year report.

[nextbigthing]

wow you are so wrong. You should try and understand exactly what the commercial relationships are with the US partners. You wouldn't be so happy owning peb.

The brilliant irony of the letters "DYOR"

Fair enough. What's your thoughts/analysis/take on it then?

And other people?

[Bobcat.]

We have a higher high today, trading at $1.12.

If PEB breaks through to trade beyond the past fortnight's high of $1.13 then that's bullish, but I do expect that short of any positive announcement (which may not be until the promised 30 May report), it's climb through what's left of May will be slow and arduous.

Discl: Still holding.

[Copper]

Looks like a broken downtrend line with low/no volume consolidation. Not conducive to trading and I don't see it going anywhere at all until news pops up.

It's been here for a month despite all the intelligent comment and charting advice.It will need something good to move it at all...IMHO.

[Minerbarejet]

Heh - bet half the punters had omg moments when that announcement first showed.:scared:

[Minerbarejet]

I nominated you Miner. Nothing a recluse cave and few bottles o bourbon can't fix in this company!
Thanks anyway Moosie, but it will have to be met with a polite refusal.
Tell you what its all go around here - they put a new streetlight up today. Exciting stuff.:)

Perhaps its an omen and we arent going to be in the dark much longer:)

Only a couple of weeks now and this thread should liven up one way or the other.

[nextbigthing]

UNKNOWN WRITER



Looks suspiciously like Snapiti to me.

(sorry Snapiti)

[Minerbarejet]

Ok, even I have a slight aeuneryism when ever I post up spelling mistakes. Can't fault me for having fat fingers on a small smartphone though!
Sounds dreadful, hope you get better soon. Is it peculiar to alces alces?:)

[Whipmoney]

Hancocks, wouldn't the signing of a LUG constitute a material event that needs to be disclosed to the market?

[MAC]

That's not quite how it works, there is nothing to sign, the LUG’s are medical & clinical associations. Pacific Edge may sign contracts with the large HMO’s though. Last October during the capital raising Pacific Edge have told us that the HMO ‘sign up’ type announcements should take 12 months to negotiate, and there’s plenty of time for that yet.

Similarly Pacific Edge have signed contracts with some of the network providers FedMed, ACPN and Stratose, but again Pacific edge don't announce each insurer or company health plan associated with those network providers as each initiates under their billing policy, as there are hundreds of insurers and thousands of company health plans in the US.

http://lugpa.org/

[JimHickey]

You will learn a lot if you ignore snapiti.

[geo]

I know there are alot of poeple who read these ST threads and dont contribute to the discussions.
Thats fine as you will learn alot on these threads if you continue to read them.
Unforetunately some posting on the PEB thread are extremely bullish on the company and quite simply ignore the facts.
It is not uncommon to regularly see poster's comment that PEB is worth $1.70 a share.
Will it's NOT it is currently trading at about $1.10 some 35% below $1.70.
Another big indicator that it is not worth $1.70 is the fact that multiple insiders all sold down at this level.
You will also read many time's on this thread that PEB mangement dont crow about the little things as they just like to get on with the business.You will also notice PEB's latest announcement is crowing about a quite meaningless award they won which clearly indicates that they are happy to crow about anything.
PEB are trying to break into a lucrative but difficult and complex health system market and there are no guarantees this will happen. If PEB fail they will not be the first great product not to be transformed into a successful and profitable business.
PEB is not the first product in it's field to be highly desirable to the end user (less invasive) and no previous product has gained much market share.
No one on this thread has any idea of current sale's(it's all a big secret).
PEB have run and completed active user programme's for sometime and have had a well planned marketing stratigy in place which ment from the 1st of July 2013 their sale's force were on the ground doing the biso to a wide range of businesses.
Please be wary of the positive hype and the future looks bright statements that are bound to be attach to the coming report as it will be there to support poor sale's results.
IMHO anything under 2000 sale's is a disaster.
2000-5000 sales is acceptable.
Please treat this stock as highly speculative until sale's traction is proven.
Disc hold in my highly speculative protfolio.
Do your own research.


Snapiti Lot's reading your post will say there he goes knocking PEB again. What you have posted is spot on and you are still holding, Like me waiting for some positive news.

[Joshuatree]

I know there are alot of poeple who read these ST threads and dont contribute to the discussions.
Thats fine as you will learn alot on these threads if you continue to read them.
Unforetunately some posting on the PEB thread are extremely bullish on the company and quite simply ignore the facts.
It is not uncommon to regularly see poster's comment that PEB is worth $1.70 a share.
Will it's NOT it is currently trading at about $1.10 some 35% below $1.70.
Another big indicator that it is not worth $1.70 is the fact that multiple insiders all sold down at this level.
You will also read many time's on this thread that PEB mangement dont crow about the little things as they just like to get on with the business.You will also notice PEB's latest announcement is crowing about a quite meaningless award they won which clearly indicates that they are happy to crow about anything.
PEB are trying to break into a lucrative but difficult and complex health system market and there are no guarantees this will happen. If PEB fail they will not be the first great product not to be transformed into a successful and profitable business.
PEB is not the first product in it's field to be highly desirable to the end user (less invasive) and no previous product has gained much market share.
No one on this thread has any idea of current sale's(it's all a big secret).
PEB have run and completed active user programme's for sometime and have had a well planned marketing stratigy in place which ment from the 1st of July 2013 their sale's force were on the ground doing the biso to a wide range of businesses.
Please be wary of the positive hype and the future looks bright statements that are bound to be attach to the coming report as it will be there to support poor sale's results.
IMHO anything under 2000 sale's is a disaster.
2000-5000 sales is acceptable.
Please treat this stock as highly speculative until sale's traction is proven.
Disc hold in my highly speculative protfolio.
Do your own research.

Excellent post snapiti. A good reminder that this applies to all stocks and posters on this and other forums. We all have our agendas, angles , slants, bias's, ego's, influence others ,be the big cheese etc etc Some are obvious,some are natural born influencers , some are genuine but not necessarily correct. Now lets all be careful out there and make some money and keep sharing:).

[Whipmoney]

I don't think you are knocking the stock at all - I think your comments are largely spot on, and I welcome your thoughts Snapiti.

One exception is that I don't believe PEB doing less than 2000 tests is a disaster. People don't seem to realise that commercialisation takes much much longer to get underway than the time spent so far. I think a fair number is around 1500 for the last six months. But it is still far too early to make assumptions on their long term success based on 500/1000/2000/5000 tests at this point.

Personally I would be highly surprised if they crack 800 tests (based on comparable trajectories) however what I can't predict is how the market would react to say ~500 tests. I suspect the wider market would have a more favourable reaction to this number than say Hancocks would.

Obviously this means that if Hancocks is correct then we could see quite a decent jump in SP if they hit say 5k or 10k tests.

[Copper]

Great post Snapiti no.8400. A variable in all this is that we won't get annual results till end May if same as last year and an investor update was not until 13 June.If we have to wait until mid June for the number of tests etc then that is a long time for this dull market to keep their frayed nerves under control.I could imagine a rise in sp on good earlier tests announcement but if that does not happen then she is very vulnerable.....cheers.

[Minerbarejet]

Taking the 100 mill long term goal out for a second I would have thought that profitability comes first. Does anyone have the faintest clue as to how many tests it would take to do that and when that might become fact. One wonders how much pressure the rights issue, that was supposed to be used to boost the rollout and bring colorectal forward, has had on the tests done so far compared to what was planned originally.I mean you can get a lot of help for 29mil or whatever it was. Will be interesting to see expenditures and how big the work force is now. After all we needed a vice president for sales, area manager in boston and another one to handle houston and chicago that I can recall, there are probably several others by now. Plus all the technicians in the lab to handle the samples. Interesting that at full steam they have a planned throughput of 1.8 tpm with only 10% of the market.
Another point regarding the 100 mill as being a middle estimate, any clarification as to what high and low might be with the rights issue done and dusted and have those estimates in fact been rewritten.

My guess is 150 to 200 tests per week increasing by 10 to 15 a week at the moment.
Based on what I have observed, noted, seen, heard, studied, researched, the nasdaq, bulls, bears, gutometer readings and sharetrader input.

[psychic]

correct me if I am wrong whipmoney but I am sure whip is refering too the nmp22 test which at the time(2004) was supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread and was going to have world domination.
After their user programme's and first sale's were achieved it took 4 more years before they were doing 4500 test per year.
The company was then bought out and whilst the nmp22 test is still in the market place today it is my understanding that it has very little market share.
One can only assume that the company that bought out the company that owned nmp22 bought it because of other attractive intellectual property but I did read an artical from the buying company telling their shareholder they are all going to be rich because of nmp22..... now it looks more like they were just trying to justify how much they paid.
The company who bought nmp22 is Alere ALR on the NYSE.
Since 2008 the shares have gone from $55 to be trading at $35- $37 today. The last 12 month range has been $24-$39. They have alot of products in the market place.

Yup. and since 2008 the SP of PEB has gone from.....to ......
CxBladder will replace inferior NMP22
Right?

[psychic]

Sweet
So Alere bought a pup. Another reason for the SP decline might be wasted research downunder. From the Alere website I see thy have just determined:

5 May 2014

NEW DATA: AUSTRALIANS CURB DRINKING IN TIMES OF STRESS

What rubbish. They drink less when they run out of money.

[psychic]

good info as usual hancocks.
I believe research shows that nmp22 underperforms cx bladder when it come's to, time wasting, false positive's.
In other words nmp22 tests show's a higher % of positive test's when the patient turns out to be negative.
The research I have read indicate's that cx bladder outperformed nmp22 in all area's but this was when I research it 6 months ago.
I would be interested to know if anyone has seen new research that showed nmp22 outperformed cx bladder in anyway.


Snapiti. I think you maybe have the sensitivity vs specificity mixed up?

from wiki:
Sensitivity (also called the true positive rate, or the recall rate in some fields) measures the proportion of actual positives which are correctly identified as such (e.g. the percentage of sick people who are correctly identified as having the condition). Specificity (sometimes called the true negative rate) measures the proportion of negatives which are correctly identified as such (e.g. the percentage of healthy people who are correctly identified as not having the condition).

From cx bladder site

Overall Sensitivity
cx bladder 83% cytology 56% NMPP Bladdercheck 38% nmpp alisa50%

Specificity
85% 96% 96% 88%

[psychic]

sorry for the confusion.
for clarity does this mean cx bladder has more time wasting false positive's than cytology and nmp22.
I hope not as from what I have been reading this is a huge issue against the use of bio markers.
greatful for any answers on this one.

Someone will answer this better Snapiti but no, the lower specificity does not make cxbladder a time waster. If I understand it correctly, the test may have even been setup with a lower specificity to improve results ie increase it's sensitivity. Rather it give off a few false alarms than miss the cancer as the other tests may do.

[Tsuba]

Would be nice if a real doctor / urologist came in and explained in simple terms his take on the technicalities of what PEB have to offer as apposed to all the armchair experts who get their info via the web etc.

[Longhaul]

I think you need to check you definitions. Unless the NPV you are talking about is different to the standard definition of NPV, then an NPV of 97% does not mean 97% require no further investigation. It means that 97% of patients that test negative are being correctly diagnosed as negative.

So for the clinician and patient, does this mean they can be 97% confident that a negative test means they really don't have UC?

[MAC]

Do keep in mind that cxbladder(triage) and cxbladder(predict), soon to be released, will have different ratio metrics again for specific applications.

Thus the sum coverage of the three cxbladder products is anticipated to further envelope a broader range of sensitivity and specificity as required by clinicians for specific purposes.

[Meister]

A positive result (or false positive, same thing) is the worst case result. By using cxBladder they are trying to rule out bladder cancer. If you did a full work up to rule out this worst case it would cost you more regardless. If you did a CxBladder test which returns negative then you have (with high confidence) ruled out yourself having bladder cancer for much cheaper than is otherwise possible. This is a cost saving.

On the other hand, if you do actually get a positive on CxBladder, then you have not been ruled out, and require further work up. This is not a cost saving over doing this kind of work up from the get go, but this is also not the most common scenario, so overall the use of cxbladder should save costs for people presenting with Hematuria

Note: It is definitely better to have false positives than for the test to come back negative when you actually do have something.

[MAC]

Tumeric, perhaps this may assist you,

There are seven cxbladder applications, as indicated within the patient clinical pathway described and provided by Pacific Edge.

The application you are referring too, if I understand you correctly, is the application for which cxbladder(triage) is intended, Pacific Edge describe cxbladder(triage) as;

“a new product positioned to enable clinicians to segregate patients who have presented to the clinician with haematuria, who do not have bladder cancer”

With the launch of cxbladder(triage) being due any day now, we should all receive the product specifications. I would anticipate that, as intended for the application as described, it should have the higher specificity that you are looking for, let’s see soon.

[MAC]

Hi Snapiti,

Cxbladder(detect) would be applied first, if the patient did not test positive, then the clinician then has an option of applying a cxbladder(triage) test. The clinician may wish to do this if the patient is in a high risk category, eg: an ex-smoker with a family history of cancer.

It's difficult to assess the market for cxbladder(triage), I've been brooding on this for a few weeks now. Up to 3 million patients present with haematuria each year and a certain percentage of these will be in a high risk category, between 2 to 4% (depending on source) will have bladder cancer.

Ultimately, clinicians over time, years perhaps, will decide what percentage of patients to cxbladder(triage) test for confirmation and for the patients peace of mind, price point is important also if different from cxbladder(detect).

Although, if both a first stage cxbladder(detect) test and a cxbladder(triage) test can be performed from the same initial patient urine sample, then Pacific Edge may be able to market cxbladder(triage) as a priced option for haematuria screening. could be quite a good market in itself.

Hopefully we all get more detailed information from Pacific Edge soon.

regards, Mac

[Dentie]

Hi Snapiti,

Cxbladder(detect) would be applied first, if the patient did not test positive, then the clinician then has an option of applying a cxbladder(triage) test. The clinician may wish to do this if the patient is in a high risk category, eg: an ex-smoker with a family history of cancer.

It's difficult to assess the market for cxbladder(triage), I've been brooding on this for a few weeks now. Up to 3 million patients present with haematuria each year and a certain percentage of these will be in a high risk category, between 2 to 4% (depending on source) will have bladder cancer.

Ultimately, clinicians over time, years perhaps, will decide what percentage of patients to cxbladder(triage) test for confirmation and for the patients peace of mind, price point is important also if different from cxbladder(detect).

Although, if both a first stage cxbladder(detect) test and a cxbladder(triage) test can be performed from the same initial patient urine sample, then Pacific Edge may be able to market cxbladder(triage) as a priced option for haematuria screening. could be quite a good market in itself.

Hopefully we all get more detailed information from Pacific Edge soon.

regards, Mac

Reading all this high tech medical stuff has numbed my brain ... I'm just a humble shareholder waiting for the financial results and I trust that our medical experts inside PEB know exactly what they are doing.

Although I have nothing credible to add on the technology side of things, what I can say is that from a patient's perspective - who is presenting with haematuria (copy & pasted from MAC's post!!), my god father was extremely grateful to have used the CxBladder test and not only was it very straight forward to use, he was extremely relieved when the test showed he did not have bladder cancer. The cost of the test was irrelevant to him - his "peace of mind" was worth a lot more to him. He is convinced (at his GP's suggestion) that his haematuria relates to the prostate. Now....do PEB have a test for this ...?

[Minerbarejet]

thanks turmeric you have explained it very well and the info you emailed me supports exactly what you are saying.
I must say, again, that my research indicate's that alot in the industry do not like bio markers that present false positive results.
You can bet your house that patients dont like it as well.
So it is clear that cx bladder is superior to other products with sensitivity but that has come at a cost with specificity(false positive's).
Wont loose any sleep over it but I will go to bed with a better understanding of the product.
I am dissappointed in now knowing that cx bladders competitors have the edge on cx bladder in one very important area.
I spent some time today updating my research on the chat about cx bladder on the US bladder cancer forums and cancer society websites.
Unforetunately I can confirm that cx bladder is still almost none exsistant on these sites.
I believe this will be a good indicator of sale's traction.
Just a thought on the forums, consider the numbers participating on the various sites currently and how they may relate to the number of persons presenting with haematuria. I suggest they are a minority by comparison
Most of the unfortunates on the sites already have bladder cancer or are being treated for it. The bladder cancer has been detected eventually by other means earlier. The only possible use for cxbladder for them is as a monitoring tool. Dont think that is the primary intent - its to establish if bladder cancer is present and causing the haematuria of many many more people than the unlucky ones who test positive.

[Tsuba]

If it is any help to you guys I just phoned a urologist nurse and asked her opinion on cxbladder. Basically it is good in that it is a cost and time saving procedure as well as none invasive and she has shares in the company.

So my point being if someone who knows more about the subject than all of you key board doctors put together and has shares in the company surely that is a good thing.


Better talking to an expert than surfing forum posts and basing the companies potential on what forum junkies have to say.

[geo]

If it is any help to you guys I just phoned a urologist nurse and asked her opinion on cxbladder. Basically it is good in that it is a cost and time saving procedure as well as none invasive and she has shares in the company.

So my point being if someone who knows more about the subject than all of you key board doctors put together and has shares in the company surely that is a good thing.


Better talking to an expert than surfing forum posts and basing the companies potential on what forum junkies have to say.



Well said and well done I agree absolutely.

[MAC]

Why exhibit indeed: http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news-and-media/calendar-of-events/american-urological-association-annual-meeting?stage=Stage
5823

[Minerbarejet]

Why are you here then.
What a joke!
Here's the latest of so many companies that those in the industry including the CEO have just lost a fortune on QRX.
Not to mention I had a good friend that worked for navman electronic's(before they were bought out) a GPS company he keeped telling me that RAK's gps units for hand held device's were going to make him rich.
What's next investing in NZR cause the gas pump attendent at BP said it was a good investment..... pass me another tui.
Hi Snap,
I believe you are holding some of these PEB shares. Could you enlighten us as to what was the deciding factor in your purchase.
Cheers (Tui)
Miner

[AndyLP]

If it is any help to you guys I just phoned a urologist nurse and asked her opinion on cxbladder. Basically it is good in that it is a cost and time saving procedure as well as none invasive and she has shares in the company.

So my point being if someone who knows more about the subject than all of you key board doctors put together and has shares in the company surely that is a good thing.


Better talking to an expert than surfing forum posts and basing the companies potential on what forum junkies have to say.



Tsuba, any more info on the urologist nurse you spoke with? New Zealand based or overseas?
Is the practice she's at employing cxBladder in their clinical pipeline? Or planning to?
Thanks for sharing this research with us. Ignore the ridiculous comparssion with petrol pump attendants in my opinion.

[Dentie]

Hi Snap,
I believe you are holding some of these PEB shares. Could you enlighten us as to what was the deciding factor in your purchase.
Cheers (Tui)
Miner

Oh, I bet he was also holding some RAK shares too - don't you worry. Snap will probably hold a bit of everything...wouldn't want to miss out on anything that might just rise (In price!!)

[skid]

Why are you here then.
What a joke!
Here's the latest of so many companies that those in the industry including the CEO have just lost a fortune on QRX.
Not to mention I had a good friend that worked for navman electronic's(before they were bought out) a GPS company he keeped telling me that RAK's gps units for hand held device's were going to make him rich.
What's next investing in NZR cause the gas pump attendent at BP said it was a good investment..... pass me another tui.

He may have been referring to the US cancer forums that was brought up,favoring his nurses opinion over theirs.
I believe that ,those on that forum,although they may have been diagnosed already, would definitely be ''in the mode'' and would most likely have heard about CX Bladder if it was out there in relevant numbers--(that may change though)
Its obvious by all the research that things are not as simple as alot of us may have originally thought-ie.-what institutions will be looking at the ''false positives'' issues and how will that affect their decisions and will these decisions be influenced by some of the big players that they are already doing business with.-will this affect their discount structure? Lobbying is a way of life in the US and it affects almost everything that happens in the Gov. and we know that some Corp (drug companies) have very deep pockets.
At what point, in terms of market saturation does CX become a threat? (I would venture to say -not at this point) And if the perceived threat becomes real will they respond with lobbying their product more aggressively (back room deals) or simply buy out PEB-or nothing at all.
We know the product is good(although not in the realm of a ''cure'' breakthrough),but there are many things we dont know.
A great share to take a punt with spec. funds set aside-but perhaps a bit risky to bet the farm on.(sure is alot more interesting to follow than the boring ole blue chip shares though):)

[Tsuba]

I am here Snapiti because I find the information and research done by the likes of MAC a lot more factual, conducive and informative than the info that the forum surfers put up.

A good example would be when you spent hours surfing overseas urological forums and came up with the conclusion that the sales report will be low simply because you could not find truck loads of people talking about cxbladder. That, to me, seems a bit of a joke.

But no doubt when or if the sale report is small you will say I told you so because I found the smoking gun on my forum search..

This will be my last contribution to this forum unless the Dunedin based urologist I left a message with gets back to me.

The nurse I spoke to is the Otago region one. If the Dunedin urologist gets back to me I will ask him more questions abouts its use here in NZ etc and will ask him about sensitivity and specificity.

I may give the nurse another phone call and ask her more of the above questions if I do not hear from the doctor.

[skid]

Im off to Montreal in a month and have a brother in law who works in finance for Bristol Meyer--Im hoping I will get an insight into how things work over there a bit more--Good to hear feedback from doctors and Nurses though as well Tsuba.
Good to have info on all fronts
First you need to have a good product--then you need to succeed in the market.--Both of these are important

[Hoop]

Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze up again...When this happens it suggests either a trend change or change of tempo of the existing trend. As PEB is trendless atm the Bollinger Bands are suggesting then will be a trend forming..

Will the future trend be up or down...We don't know for sure.
We can observe trading behaviour for clues such as insider trading..of course they will be amongst all the other traders both long term and short term, optimistic and pessimistic traders all smudging the overall trading results of the day...

Charting using momentum & money flows indicators etc can pick up the larger insider movements...

Below is the PEB chart with expanded indicators and less S&R lines drawn in..Although DMI is only a price behaviour indicator I have added it because its a fast enough indicator to pick up price changes however it won't react to slow stealth buying as it is not designed for that .... but its my favourite..

From the chart it shows RSI and the MACD have fired buy signals. Both indicators have momentum variables incorporated in them but as you can see the momentum indicator says its not the momentum causing the 2 buy signals ...The OBV is showing volume/price pressure is neutral...so these 2 buy signals must be from something else...maybe but not likely it could be stealth buying the disciplinced buying of just enough shares as to not cause a change in price hence trying to stay unnoticed long enough to complete their slow accumulation..

Its very possible it isn't stealth buying either..so the most likely behaviour that the indicators have picked up would be the low volume behaviour of small fussy buyers and sellers wanting their price and both not in a hurry to buy/sell.

Anyway time will tell which way PEB will go after this trendless period....

Note:..Normally with volatile stocks the outcome from squeezed Bollinger Bands isn't very long......but looking back on the chart history (July/August 2013) there was a period when PEB wasn't very volatile and the squeezed bands lasted 6 weeks...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB16052014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB16052014.gif.html)

[Hoop]

Excuse my ignorance, but isn't the bollinger band just a confidence interval in drag? if so, the tightening just means that volatility has dropped. Nothing more nothing less.

Don't try to read too much into TA.
Hi New Guy
I don't..I deal with indicators the simple way...I don't overdose in theory and equations to see how they work and get bogged down with too much science it takes your mind of your game...a bit like driving a car and coming up to traffic lights (indicators), no driver then starts thinking about all the electronics that go into making them work and if they did they would take their mind of what they should be doing...that is driving a car. However a driver does instinctively know (from experience) that after a red light it will at some point turn green because the traffic lights have alway behaved this way...

With BB's I have over the 17+ years of being a Chartist I've noticed that BB squeezing creates entertainment value as something is going to happen..BB width is the result of volatily and BB always waxes and wanes therefore a TA knows that nothing lasts for ever not even confidence nor settled periods with low voltility...

I suggest you chart around with several stocks using BBs ....notice how some stocks behave better than others ,,,but overall you will see the price effect from the BB squeezing.

BB warnings are valuable early indicators that something different could soon happen...all investors should react by monitoring their share holding more closely

[baller18]

I asked my mate who has just graduated and worked in the hospital (auckland hospital) for a year as a house officer (doctor) and he knows cxbladder and they use it in the urology department quite a lot. Asking him if he knows they are paid for tests or not right now...
This is a good sign, when he was a student or as a house officer, they rotate and don't stay in one department for long, so if he was already being taught cxbladder or being exposed to it must mean the urology department have adopted this test to a certain degree...

[baller18]

Thanks for your posts again hoop

[MAC]

One must consider the various applications and the intended purpose of each test;

High sensitivity tests may be applied by clinicians for applications which require a diagnosis or assessment of cancerousness.

High specificity tests may be applied by clinicians for applications which require triage and an assessment of the degree to which a patient may be cancer free.

Cxbladder(detect) was not designed as a high specificity test, cxbladder(detect) was designed as a high sensitivity test. Pacific Edge are about to release cxbladder(triage) probably as a high specificity test, if I interpret the description provided by Pacific Edge correctly.

Cxbladder(triage) may also represent quite substantial cost savings as it potentially offers clinicians and insurers lower ongoing follow up assessment costs for those haematuria patients not diagnosed with cancer but who remain in a high risk category.

Potentially when both cxbladder(detect) and cxbladder(triage) tests are performed concurrently for those initially found to have haematuria, the probability of a high cancerous patient slipping through such a screen may become statistically quite low indeed.

5826

Edit: Clarified better for Tumeric

[MAC]

Ha, I suppose you could read my post that way, I'll go back and edit it for you.

Cxbladder(detect) is not intended to be a high specificity test, therefore specificity is not as meaningful for it's intended application(s).

[MAC]

Sorry, that's what I thought you meant. Yes agreed, it is designed to be an 85% specificity test for all intents and purposes.

But just to clear up once and for all, CxBladder IS below its competition in terms of specificity.

That's quite incorrect;

We don’t yet have the product specifications for cxbladder(triage) and cxbladder(predict), but certainly as I understand it, cxbladder(detect) outperforms the competition substantially for its intended applications. We are yet to see a specificity spec for cxbladder(triage).

The Cxbladder process applies five RNA biomarkers and a very cleaver patented software system. I would anticipate that the difference between the cxbladder products may be a variation in the biomarkers but more probably also different tuning within the patented interpretation software.

Cxbladder(detect) is tuned to maximise the diagnosis for its intended high sensitivity applications. Similarly Cxbladder(triage) will be tuned for its applications. Clinicians when applying high sensitivity tests don't necessarily require specificity, and visa versa.

Both these tests along with Cxbladder(predict), due to be released later this year, should cover a much greater range of sensitivity and specificity applications, and cover them much better, than the lower tech products provided by the competition.

[MAC]

As you wish, we should have all the specs Tumeric by years end to lay out on the desk, and can better review them all at that time in a greater context.

My feel at this time is that the tech Pacific Edge apply is both superior and seemingly more flexible in terms of tuning than that presently offered by Alere. It is unlikely IMO that Pacific Edge would release cxbladder(triage) or cxbladder(predict) unless they also offered a similar leap in advancement as that provided by cxbladder(detect).

[Minerbarejet]

Which begs the question Snap, -are you going to be unhappy if you are right?

[MAC]

I asked my mate who has just graduated and worked in the hospital (auckland hospital) for a year as a house officer (doctor) and he knows cxbladder and they use it in the urology department quite a lot. Asking him if he knows they are paid for tests or not right now...

This is a good sign, when he was a student or as a house officer, they rotate and don't stay in one department for long, so if he was already being taught cxbladder or being exposed to it must mean the urology department have adopted this test to a certain degree...

Thanks Baller and Tsuba too, it’s good to get some feedback from the hospitals and specialists also.

It’s all early days yet for the Doc’s, perhaps if its amicable you could update us again over time..