PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Copper]

If it goes up, average up. If it goes down, average down... if you still have faith in the company that is!

I have every faith PEB will be a great company; how great a company and on what kind of timeline, only the future holdsd that.
That is an extremely good post. All the posts seem to be that of the Otago medical school etc and not related in my opinion to where the share price is going.The things still has a very vulnerable feel IMHO.It may be in the index but as you all know,like aussy miners,the good news and results do not result in a rising share price.Our market in the Rymans etc of this world are still subject to investor fatigue....b

[baller18]

My house officer friend is unsure if they are paid tests or not. However, given the time frame seems like must be trials.
I have also asked another friend who has worked as a gp for 5 years and has not heard of cxbladder prior to my message. He then goes on it won't be the first on the list if they are suspecting cancer.
We need to get those salespeople out there to the gp's!

[Minerbarejet]

In December last year I went for a checkup and was asked for a urine sample. I asked the GP ( innocently) if it was a cxbladder test (knowing it wasnt) to which I received the reply, " no it isnt, but I know what you are talking about"
Dec 2013. Midland Health Board jurisdiction.

[Minerbarejet]

The best analogy that I ever saw on this thread regarding the dreaded two Spec + Sens was Hancocks car alarm.
Knowing his penchant for using the erase button I am not going looking for it.
Basically he had a Car, (your body), an Alarm System (cxbladder)and a South Island Burglar, (Bladder Cancer).
The alarm was set to maximum sensitivity at 95 - 100%. A truck rumbles past, off it goes, a dog pees on the wheel, off it goes, gets bumped by someone parking, off it goes, someone tries to break in, off it goes. But you dont want to know about dogs, trucks and bumps, you want to know if anyone is trying to steal your car. So you set the alarm a bit lower to around 80 -85. Cxbladder at that setting will tell you specifically 86 percent of the time that a South Island Burglar is trying to steal your car and in addition will detect any North Island Burglar( upper tract) doing the same thing. In fact on six occasions it told you a burglar was in the vicinity.(Early indication of false positives that turned out to be true positive 12 months later.)
The competition's alarm will only go off 50% of the time but, although it is usually a burglar when it does go off, it misses a lot. Bladder check did not notice any North Island Burglars but cxbladder found all of them.
This MAY help- then again ...........:)

[Dentie]

My house officer friend is unsure if they are paid tests or not. However, given the time frame seems like must be trials.
I have also asked another friend who has worked as a gp for 5 years and has not heard of cxbladder prior to my message. He then goes on it won't be the first on the list if they are suspecting cancer.
We need to get those salespeople out there to the gp's!

Potential worry there Baller. Given the amount and depth of technical research done on here over the last few weeks (by some existing and potential shareholders ONLY (ie - not actual game participants), it seems quite surprising that someone who is working at the coal face on a daily basis - in NZ - is not yet aware of CxBladder.

I try and stay at the top of my game by making it my responsibility to keep researching and learning who/what is affecting the sandpit that I play in daily. If someone is bringing new/updated toys to play in my sandpit - I want to know ... and I do my best to know about it "as it happens".

I know GP's are very busy people, but most of them seem to be constantly reading journals and the like. I am sure PEB get this also, hence why they send their salespeople to the organisations and associations etc.

[Dentie]

The best analogy that I ever saw on this thread regarding the dreaded two Spec + Sens was Hancocks car alarm.
Knowing his penchant for using the erase button I am not going looking for it.
Basically he had a Car, (your body), an Alarm System (cxbladder)and a South Island Burglar, (Bladder Cancer).
The alarm was set to maximum sensitivity at 95 - 100%. A truck rumbles past, off it goes, a dog pees on the wheel, off it goes, gets bumped by someone parking, off it goes, someone tries to break in, off it goes. But you dont want to know about dogs, trucks and bumps, you want to know if anyone is trying to steal your car. So you set the alarm a bit lower to around 80 -85. Cxbladder at that setting will tell you specifically 86 percent of the time that a South Island Burglar is trying to steal your car and in addition will detect any North Island Burglar( upper tract) doing the same thing. In fact on six occasions it told you a burglar was in the vicinity.(Early indication of false positives that turned out to be true positive 12 months later.)
The competition's alarm will only go off 50% of the time but, although it is usually a burglar when it does go off, it misses a lot. Bladder check did not notice any North Island Burglars but cxbladder found all of them.
This MAY help- then again ...........:)

Great anology Miner!

[robbo24]

The best analogy that I ever saw on this thread regarding the dreaded two Spec + Sens was Hancocks car alarm.
Knowing his penchant for using the erase button I am not going looking for it.
Basically he had a Car, (your body), an Alarm System (cxbladder)and a South Island Burglar, (Bladder Cancer).
The alarm was set to maximum sensitivity at 95 - 100%. A truck rumbles past, off it goes, a dog pees on the wheel, off it goes, gets bumped by someone parking, off it goes, someone tries to break in, off it goes. But you dont want to know about dogs, trucks and bumps, you want to know if anyone is trying to steal your car. So you set the alarm a bit lower to around 80 -85. Cxbladder at that setting will tell you specifically 86 percent of the time that a South Island Burglar is trying to steal your car and in addition will detect any North Island Burglar( upper tract) doing the same thing. In fact on six occasions it told you a burglar was in the vicinity.(Early indication of false positives that turned out to be true positive 12 months later.)
The competition's alarm will only go off 50% of the time but, although it is usually a burglar when it does go off, it misses a lot. Bladder check did not notice any North Island Burglars but cxbladder found all of them.
This MAY help- then again ...........:)

Good. Now write one about CXColorectal

[Minerbarejet]

That was Hancocks original analogy restated from memory. Im sure he will be delighted to come to the rescue on cxColorectal if need be. I think cxC is more about prognosis and triage than detection so possibly the same sort of parameters dont apply.
:)

[baller18]

Potential worry there Baller. Given the amount and depth of technical research done on here over the last few weeks (by some existing and potential shareholders ONLY (ie - not actual game participants), it seems quite surprising that someone who is working at the coal face on a daily basis - in NZ - is not yet aware of CxBladder.

I try and stay at the top of my game by making it my responsibility to keep researching and learning who/what is affecting the sandpit that I play in daily. If someone is bringing new/updated toys to play in my sandpit - I want to know ... and I do my best to know about it "as it happens".

I know GP's are very busy people, but most of them seem to be constantly reading journals and the like. I am sure PEB get this also, hence why they send their salespeople to the organisations and associations etc.

Yes, as he is not the sole practitioner there, he works in quite a large medical centre, with 5 doctors so therefore if someone was aware of CXbladder, I am sure they would've bought it up in the schedules inservices....

[Copper]

Only thing being tested today is the share price.Need a bit of late support......

[Minerbarejet]

My house officer friend is unsure if they are paid tests or not. However, given the time frame seems like must be trials.
I have also asked another friend who has worked as a gp for 5 years and has not heard of cxbladder prior to my message. He then goes on it won't be the first on the list if they are suspecting cancer.
We need to get those salespeople out there to the gp's!
He didnt happen to say what was first on the list by any chance, baller. Regardless, there are now probably five more doctors aware of cxbladders' existence thanks to your efforts.
Well done.:)

Just as a matter of interest, what health board is involved? Is it one of those already signed up?

[baller18]

He didnt happen to say what was first on the list by any chance, baller. Regardless, there are now probably five more doctors aware of cxbladders' existence thanks to your efforts.
Well done.:)

Just as a matter of interest, what health board is involved? Is it one of those already signed up?

Yup, auckland grafton hospital is where my friend works in. The gp works in the whitecross in northshore

[ziggy415]

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http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iWu9R3_Gvdto.jpg (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/photo/cancer-detection-dog-mcbaine-/-i9HQlwjC.QX8.html)Source: the University of Pennsylvania Veterinary SchoolCancer detection dog McBaine is trained to sniff out the odorants that indicate a woman has ovarian cancer, a disease that has no effective test for early detection. Close (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#)

Cancer detection dog McBaine is trained to sniff out the odorants that indicate a woman... Read More (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#)

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OpenSource: the University of Pennsylvania Veterinary SchoolCancer detection dog McBaine is trained to sniff out the odorants that indicate a woman has ovarian cancer, a disease that has no effective test for early detection.







Which is better at detecting cancer, a laboratory or a Labrador retriever?
Consider the talents of Tsunami, a regal-looking dog with attentive eyes and an enthusiastic tail wag for her trainer friends. University of Pennsylvania (http://topics.bloomberg.com/university-of-pennsylvania/) researchers say she is more than 90 percent successful in identifying the scent of ovarian cancer (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001891/) in tissue samples...is cx bladder next

[Minerbarejet]

What a thing to do to your four legged mates. Having them spend their lives sniffing buckets of pee as a ​lab test.
Wonder how many dogs you would need for 285000 tests annually. Be a heck of a food bill and animal rights might have something to say as well.
Better put it on paws, methinks:)

[Xerof]

Yes, I'm sure the women of the world will be very happy for trained dogs to sniff their crotches in the interest of science.

they are barking mad.....:ohmy:

[ghostrider68]

Does anybody know if there will be a trading halt when the next update comes out? if so for how long?

[robbo24]

What a thing to do to your four legged mates. Having them spend their lives sniffing buckets of pee as a ​lab test.
Wonder how many dogs you would need for 285000 tests annually. Be a heck of a food bill and animal rights might have something to say as well.
Better put it on paws, methinks:)

Moosie is no gynecologist but he'll take a look into it.

[ddrone]

And... we're back at a buck. Chart people, what does it all mean?

[Mista_Trix]

Lets see if this works;
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=743805555670905&set=a.612440698807392.1073741827.111356775582456&type=3&theater

[Copper]

So is the logic here that the who ever just sold a bunch 200,000 odd is hoping to trigger stop losses and therefore by those shares back at sub $1?

This sounds like quite a risky tactic, IF no stop losses are triggered and the SP just bounces back.

Do people buy into this theory that such a tactic has just been employed here?

Or is it simply more likely someone wanting out?
This stock has had a large seller IMHO.since a month or so back.There seem to be many parcels in the 100,000 range.I think I mentioned it to Balance some weeks back on the 8th May thinking it was Masfen still selling.One thing,there are few grunty buyers.

[skid]

Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze up again...When this happens it suggests either a trend change or change of tempo of the existing trend. As PEB is trendless atm the Bollinger Bands are suggesting then will be a trend forming..

Will the future trend be up or down...We don't know for sure.
We can observe trading behaviour for clues such as insider trading..of course they will be amongst all the other traders both long term and short term, optimistic and pessimistic traders all smudging the overall trading results of the day...

Charting using momentum & money flows indicators etc can pick up the larger insider movements...

Below is the PEB chart with expanded indicators and less S&R lines drawn in..Although DMI is only a price behaviour indicator I have added it because its a fast enough indicator to pick up price changes however it won't react to slow stealth buying as it is not designed for that .... but its my favourite..

From the chart it shows RSI and the MACD have fired buy signals. Both indicators have momentum variables incorporated in them but as you can see the momentum indicator says its not the momentum causing the 2 buy signals ...The OBV is showing volume/price pressure is neutral...so these 2 buy signals must be from something else...maybe but not likely it could be stealth buying the disciplinced buying of just enough shares as to not cause a change in price hence trying to stay unnoticed long enough to complete their slow accumulation..

Its very possible it isn't stealth buying either..so the most likely behaviour that the indicators have picked up would be the low volume behaviour of small fussy buyers and sellers wanting their price and both not in a hurry to buy/sell.

Anyway time will tell which way PEB will go after this trendless period....

Note:..Normally with volatile stocks the outcome from squeezed Bollinger Bands isn't very long......but looking back on the chart history (July/August 2013) there was a period when PEB wasn't very volatile and the squeezed bands lasted 6 weeks...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB16052014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB16052014.gif.html)

Your post is starting to sound very interesting Hoop

[Longhaul]

my dogs is keen to volunteer

Woof, woof.

[winner69]

NZX50 would have been heaps better off not kicking HLG out for PEB

PEB down 35% since close of Mar 21 while HLG up 18%

Throw out winners and replace with losers - index trackers would love that. Luckily only a small weighting so real dosh lost .... but hasn't the industry done with all the selling and buying and clipping the ticket on the way through

[Beagle]

I had a beagle a few years ago, (sadly she died of cancer too early), that was so clever she could smell me open a packet of chocolate biscuts in my bedroom from the other end of the house, (its a big long house), through two sets of closed doors, she'd push the double doors of the lounge open and come stratching on the bedroom door. Now I thought that was bloody clever but this business of smelling ovarian cancer with a 90% success rate is even more remarkable...actually speaking of things woofy this stock is...

[Minerbarejet]

no such thing as a triple bottom.... run to the hills
This share is rewriting the charts - another bounce up 3% off $1.00.
Only 67 cents to go eh Mac.:)

Could be next week, never know your luck.

[Minerbarejet]

was that only 67% to go that you ment Miner........ :)I'm doing due diligence on that one, Snap:confused:

I meant 67 cents to get to macs 1.70 from 1.03

67% of 1.03 is 69cents which would make 1.72

In some circles this would be considered highly inaccurate.:)

[winner69]

I'm doing due diligence on that one, Snap:confused:

I meant 67 cents to get to macs 1.70 from 1.03

67% of 1.03 is 69cents which would make 1.72

In some circles this would be considered highly inaccurate.:)

Whats the specificity calculation for that .....or is it sensitivity metric

[Minerbarejet]

Whats the specificity calculation for that .....or is it sensitivity metric
Depends if you are a burglar or not. :)

[Hoop]

Your post is starting to sound very interesting Hoop
Yes it didn't take long..eh ...
The Bollinger Band squeeze answer of whether the price is going to trend up or down is looking dour .... todays close to touch the low BB line is not good news...neither is the price moving away downward from the EMA200.
The only good piece of news today was that PEB tested its support area (intraday) and succeeded thereby making that Support (99c) fractionally stronger.That support 99/100c as at 5.00pm close today has 11 buyers..The reality is however, at this moment in time, PEB is a very high TA risk share...

[baller18]

Hoop, is this a descending triangle forming? Does not look like a triple bottom pattern...

[Hoop]

Hoop, is this a descending triangle forming? Does not look like a triple bottom pattern...
Sorry for the delay I had to consult the "Bible" (Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns..by Thomas Bulkowski)
I couldn't find the guideline rules for a confirmed bottom pattern, but from memory I think the right side has to be a reverse to an uptrend (higher high higher low) if I'm correct then PEB has no confirmed bottom to date.

Hmmm...couldn't see a descending triangle forming Baller
I had to consult the "bible" about the purple triangle I drew in...It is a pennant (an symmetrical shape type) and they're either a bullish or bearish continuation events depending on which way they break out......However in PEB case the price got ejected at the Pennants apex so there was no answer to whether it was a bullish or bearish continuation.... a useless result, so had to wait and see...and today it went down to touch the lower BB line not a good sign..eh? ..a bearish continuation? (back to touching those lower BB lines again)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB20052014a.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB20052014a.png.html)

[Whipmoney]

I think we can take that downtrend line starting @ $1.20 and extend it out to make lower highs up until a few days ago as well Hoop. Not a good look if $1.00 breaks as it would probably make a second, steeper downtrend line come into play!

I'm not sure if the trend is going to matter too much given that sales data will be presented in 9 days. This will be crucial to the SP in the medium term.

[skid]

I would venture to say that,that will be true if the sales are either really good or really bad.--If they are just so so and the SP is trending down into the 90s I think the psychological aspect will come into play.
Conversely if it had trended up to the 1.20s it would be easier to sluff off a mediocre sales result.
Guess thats what charts are all about--the psychology of buying and selling

[Hoop]

I would venture to say that,that will be true if the sales are either really good or really bad.--If they are just so so and the SP is trending down into the 90s I think the psychological aspect will come into play.
Conversely if it had trended up to the 1.20s it would be easier to sluff off a mediocre sales result.
Guess thats what charts are all about--the psychology of buying and selling
Yep Skid..its exactly that..charts show investor group human behaviour..At the moment the "herd" is restless and unsure as is often the case before an announcement ...as Whip says this short term trend may not matter too much in the medium term if the sales data is better than the "herd" expected or an OK result which takes away the uncertainty of the thought of a poor result.

However when using TA discipline you have to remind yourself that you can not discount the possibility that negative TA has been affected by rumours...whether false or not.

Using TA discipline you are in control of your investment destiny and are able to minimise risk when black clouds appear... not relying on an assumption of positive projected forward fundamentals on the hope from others to produce a good report to satisfy that assumption.

[skid]

Yep Skid..its exactly that..charts show investor group human behaviour..At the moment the "herd" is restless and unsure as is often the case before an announcement ...as Whip says this short term trend may not matter too much in the medium term if the sales data is better than the "herd" expected or an OK result which takes away the uncertainty of the thought of a poor result.

However when using TA discipline you have to remind yourself that you can not discount the possibility that negative TA has been affected by rumours...whether false or not.

Using TA discipline you are in control of your investment destiny and are able to minimise risk when black clouds appear... not relying on an assumption of positive projected forward fundamentals on the hope from others to produce a good report to satisfy that assumption.


Is that a ''Hold fire''

[nextbigthing]

Depth looking a little grim :(

[klid]

Oh ok better dump my 25000 now then?

[Hoop]

Is that a ''Hold fire''

On my TA discipline Oh yes!!!..

Its a hold fire at the moment if selling (support is still too strong)... its a medium/long term buying no no at the moment..

short term buy Hmmm...maybe.. if the asks loses more quantity and the support stays strong


Depth looking a little grim :(

what are you on today moosie, to much clover in your diet.
PEB has had and still looks to have support at 99-$1.
nothings change move along please


Agree Snapti ..the depth at the moment shows the 99c/100c support is comforting....and....getting stronger...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB21052014depth-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB21052014depth-1.png.html)

[Copper]

Dare I as what the logic is this time mate?

Surely not intraday so presumably you are talking about an immanent collapse of the ^NBI OR sales results that are going to really disappoint.

On a day to day note I go back to the scene over the last month or two where there has been a solid seller in the wings that plays his hand from time to time.I thought it may have been the Masfen's as I've posted before.He usually sells when there is good buying pressure.I hope it's not the scenario often posted by one of our favorite posters on another site where..."The ducks are all being lined up so an insider can let fly"...we will see....

[Mista_Trix]

Load up your charts and tell me what you see ;)

I think the psychological resistance at $1.00 will hold/bounce within the $1.00-$1.10 range (with a possible run-up before the numbers) until sales/processed figures, which given the hype thus far, could potentially disappoint.

6 of one, half a dozen of the other, clear as mud :-S

[nextbigthing]

On my TA discipline Oh yes!!!..

Its a hold fire at the moment if selling (support is still too strong)... its a medium/long term buying no no at the moment..

short term buy Hmmm...maybe.. if the asks loses more quantity and the support stays strong





Agree Snapti ..the depth at the moment shows the 99c/100c support is comforting....and....getting stronger...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB21052014depth-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB21052014depth-1.png.html)

Now Hoop that's a little unfair, depth is dynamic and it certainly didn't look that pretty earlier.

Good news that it's holding anyway.

PS Hoop I have a question for you on the NZX trading thread, cheers.

[Minerbarejet]

Why not, for a bit of entertaining reading, go back to the November Half Year report and have a decent look at what the guidelines were for the next 6 months from the CEO. You may all be a bit surprised come June 1,
- one way or the other.:)

[klid]

Have a look in the last prelim at what they expect to deliver over 6 months from there.

[fiasco]

^^^ Exactly this. No big surprises should be expected other than under acheiving or over.

[winner69]

Why not, for a bit of entertaining reading, go back to the November Half Year report and have a decent look at what the guidelines were for the next 6 months from the CEO. You may all be a bit surprised come June 1,
- one way or the other.:)

Based on that wouldn't expect much in way of sales .....seemed to be a lot of doing things and not much selling things eh

[Minerbarejet]

Hopefully we get a few reports on those conferences that seem to occur fairly often.
Plenty of guidance to come up on many things.:)

[fiasco]

I have some empathy towards PEB, some investors place huge emphasis on PEB to make unrealistic sales targets in a short space of time. They've only recently started getting into this phase after a long development cycle. They have achieved tremendous milestones, and I feel very confident as an investor they’ll continue to keep driving and meeting realistic goals. Rome wasn’t built in a day.

In saying that, yes we invest in organisations which can provide continued growth in our investment.

[Meister]

Re-reading that half year report as suggested (why not?) brought my attention to something I overlooked last time, that is somewhat relevant to our earlier discussions on false positives/negatives.
The US is 'litigious operating environment'. The urologists can be sued if they 'get it wrong', and in particular they are at risk of being sued if they say a patient is clear when they are not.

CxBladder is perfect for this envrionment, as it has an incredibly low chance of false negatives. It isn't the false positives you have to watch out for here, and it gives us a good self-serving reason for urologists to start working with CxBladder, in addition to its other benefits for patients

[Mista_Trix]

Re-reading that half year report as suggested (why not?) brought my attention to something I overlooked last time, that is somewhat relevant to our earlier discussions on false positives/negatives.
The US is 'litigious operating environment'. The urologists can be sued if they 'get it wrong', and in particular they are at risk of being sued if they say a patient is clear when they are not.

CxBladder is perfect for this envrionment, as it has an incredibly low chance of false negatives. It isn't the false positives you have to watch out for here, and it gives us a good self-serving reason for urologists to start working with CxBladder, in addition to its other benefits for patients

On top of that it will be interesting to hear about the progression of the other two products... me hopes its not similar to DIL and the 'sticky notes', I'm sure its not :-S

[Copper]

moosie lets not full this thread up with traders talk.... we did start a new traders thread to avoid clogging up the other threads with trader chit chat

Good call but if you look over the last three pages it's all trader talk and a mix of garbage.You and I have added to it but as I said earlier amongst all that lot I said for the fourth time that I think there is a large seller just waiting in the background.Moosie really is only taking up that message.As others have said before it's a share trader site even though it likens itself to the Otago Medical School at times.cheers.

[mis chief]

I don't know your investment strategy, timeframes or goals. If you want my professional you can contact me. Payment can be made in PEB shares :)

Is that an open offer to all? For the newer viewers, can you give us a professional history rundown?

[warthog]

I think the psychological resistance at $1.00 will hold/bounce

Boom!

This sentence was added for no particular reason.

[Lost in space]

I've always been pained by the fact you can't convey extreme sarcasm over the internet. Maybe J Clarkson will come up with a novel idea once the PC brigade at the BBC fire him?

My advice has always been free and always will be. Take it or leave it, I air my views on the market openly :)

Would be a much duller place without you Mossie. It all goes into the mix and investors should use their grey matter and pick the flesh from the bones.

[Mista_Trix]

Boom!

This sentence was added for no particular reason.

Boom!
It closed back at $1.00 :-S

[skid]

Stack up a few more sandbags:)

[Minerbarejet]

5719

PEB at a dollar... Where does it sit on this diagram??

Plz note: I forgot who posted this, back when DIL was taking its original hammering, and I've always found it to be a useful reminder of the emotions. Was it Xerof???
So where are we now?:)

[klid]

Maybe David needs some more renovations to his house or whatever. I am going to hold all until something big happens.

[MAC]

Maybe David needs some more renovations to his house or whatever. I am going to hold all until something big happens.

It’s possible a lot could come all at once too with insurers needing to make 2015 rate submissions for Obamacare by the end of May.

Most of the negotiations Pacific Edge have underway with the HMO’s, and synergistically perhaps with Medicare and Veterans Association also, may all be pretty much synchronised with this process and schedule now.

[Minerbarejet]

I'd like to know what contingency plans those holding above $1 have if a) sales are abysmal on Friday or b) there are no numbers on friday (worst case a la DIL???). I assume those holding at 50 or below are just long term holders comfortable with their buffer!

Serious answers please, along the lines of "pray for the best but prepare for the worst".
Good point Moosie. The announcement next friday is a Preliminary report so it may or may not have sales figures in it. Wont that be exciting for everyone! :):mellow::cool::eek2:;):confused::(

[winner69]

Preliminary will have(is meant to have) a full P&L (sales and losses)

Just unaudited and preliminary to the Annual Report which comes a bit later

[Minerbarejet]

Exactly Miner, me thinks we are forgetting this key point (but I'm sure we can all extrapolate numbers wise if so) ;)
There could also be nothing in there at all and all we get is,

This page has been intentionally left blank.


Is that an oxymoron? How can it be blank when you have printed that on it.:)

[Copper]

I'd like to know what contingency plans those holding above $1 have if a) sales are abysmal on Friday or b) there are no numbers on friday (worst case a la DIL???). I assume those holding at 50 or below are just long term holders comfortable with their buffer!

Serious answers please, along the lines of "pray for the best but prepare for the worst".

The overall market is tired.A stock has to have some damn good announcement to go against the trend.An announcement may be great but lethargy and stuff it will hold sway if it ain't great.

[Xerof]

I bought a few in today. First time for weeks. If you think the future of this company hinges on next weeks report, get out and put your funds into treasuries

[baller18]

I bought a few in today. First time for weeks. If you think the future of this company hinges on next weeks report, get out and put your funds into treasuries

So true.

If anyone is interested, have passed on cxbladder to another friend of mine who passed it onto his friend who works in primary care as a GP has never heard of cxbladder as well.... In a multicdisciplinary clinic not a sole practitioner clinic....

Don't know what the interest is like in the states, but I think anything between 1000 - 2000 sales is probably more realistic for this report...

[robbo24]

UrologyCare Wellington use CXBladder http://www.urologycarewellington.co.nz/news.html

And this guy is still in remission! Wahoo! http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.co.nz/2014/05/good-cxbladder-result-weekly-roundup-of.html

PS Edit - who could forget last October when first US sales occurred... http://www.biospectrumasia.com/biospectrum/news/198584/pacific-edges-cxbladder-achieves-sales-us?WT.rss_f=Home&WT.rss_a=Pacific+Edge%27s+Cxbladder+achieves+sales +in+the+US&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#.U3yapNKSyDg

Be excited. BE. BE, EXCITED.

[Leftfield]

This from a recent Otago University Enews FYI;

Congratulations to Pacific Edge! It's been a stellar twelve months of remarkable achievements for the Dunedin-based company, and there is plenty to celebrate.
In 2013 and 2014 Pacific Edge:


Launched Cxbladder (http://www.cxbladder.com/), a potentially life-saving bladder cancer test that, unlike other tests on the market, is non-invasive, fast, accessible, inexpensive and extremely accurate.
Won the NZ Innovation Council's Supreme Innovator Award. (http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/10/cancer-detection-test-gets-pacific-edge-supreme-award-new-zealand-innovator-awards)
Were named Business of the Year (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business) by the Otago Daily Times.
Opened a custom-built laboratory in Pennsylvania, USA, which has capacity to process 4,000 Cxbladder tests per week.
Achieved CLIA (Clinical Laboratory Improvements Amendments) accreditation for both its US and Dunedin based laboratories.
Achieved NZ DHB support (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific-edge-gets-dhb-support-cxbladder-db-151683)to fast-track the introduction of Cxbladder tests to the four main DHB boards.
Signed agreements with three National Provider Networks in USA and started commercial sales in the giant American healthcare market.
Skyrocketed up the stock market and will soon join the NZX50.

Pacific Edge formed in 2001 to commercialise world-leading cancer genetics research from the University. Cxbladder is a new, non-invasive, urine based bladder cancer detection test that measures the expression of five genes that create a unique molecular signature for bladder cancer, alerting doctors to possible tumours or helping to rule out the presence of cancer in patients. More accurate than many other urine-based cancer detection tests, Cxbladder can give patients and doctors added confidence in their diagnoses quickly and cost effectively.
Pacific Edge aims to launch two more unique products soon ..

[Dentie]

Now look here you two (Robbo & Left Field)...you need to stop ramping up this stock. You have been warned before (on numerous occasions) and it is just not good enough. For goodness sake, if you carry on like this there may one or two out there that actually want to purchase this stock and god, if that happens it may force the price back up to the dizzy level of $1.05. And if that happens, the big seller waiting in the wings - who obviously sees no benefit in holding PEB shares - well, they will just have to keep selling to get the price back down .......

The question is....where will the SP be at the close of play next Thursday? And then, where will it be at the close next Friday........ Can hardly wait.

[False Profit]

Now look here you two (Robbo & Left Field)...you need to stop ramping up this stock. You have been warned before (on numerous occasions) and it is just not good enough. For goodness sake, if you carry on like this there may one or two out there that actually want to purchase this stock and god, if that happens it may force the price back up to the dizzy level of $1.05. And if that happens, the big seller waiting in the wings - who obviously sees no benefit in holding PEB shares - well, they will just have to keep selling to get the price back down .......

The question is....where will the SP be at the close of play next Thursday? And then, where will it be at the close next Friday........ Can hardly wait.

They're ramping up and you're ramping down. It's called opinion and it's free of charge whether you agree or not. If you'd like to propose some legal document guaranteeing this share will flop then out with it.

[Mista_Trix]

This from a recent Otago University Enews FYI;

Congratulations to Pacific Edge! It's been a stellar twelve months of remarkable achievements for the Dunedin-based company, and there is plenty to celebrate.
In 2013 and 2014 Pacific Edge:


Launched Cxbladder (http://www.cxbladder.com/), a potentially life-saving bladder cancer test that, unlike other tests on the market, is non-invasive, fast, accessible, inexpensive and extremely accurate.
Won the NZ Innovation Council's Supreme Innovator Award. (http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/10/cancer-detection-test-gets-pacific-edge-supreme-award-new-zealand-innovator-awards)
Were named Business of the Year (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business) by the Otago Daily Times.
Opened a custom-built laboratory in Pennsylvania, USA, which has capacity to process 4,000 Cxbladder tests per week.
Achieved CLIA (Clinical Laboratory Improvements Amendments) accreditation for both its US and Dunedin based laboratories.
Achieved NZ DHB support (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific-edge-gets-dhb-support-cxbladder-db-151683)to fast-track the introduction of Cxbladder tests to the four main DHB boards.
Signed agreements with three National Provider Networks in USA and started commercial sales in the giant American healthcare market.
Skyrocketed up the stock market and will soon join the NZX50.

Pacific Edge formed in 2001 to commercialise world-leading cancer genetics research from the University. Cxbladder is a new, non-invasive, urine based bladder cancer detection test that measures the expression of five genes that create a unique molecular signature for bladder cancer, alerting doctors to possible tumours or helping to rule out the presence of cancer in patients. More accurate than many other urine-based cancer detection tests, Cxbladder can give patients and doctors added confidence in their diagnoses quickly and cost effectively.
Pacific Edge aims to launch two more unique products soon ..

Just a disclosure as well (which the article probably should have done - I received it too as a once upon a time ex-student), the University holds a LOT of PEB shares.
I was talking to the vice chancellor a couple of months ago and she said that PEB was always really accomodating when they wanted to wheel international visitors through the labs, and that having the labs on campus had been massively mutually beneficial to both parties.

Seems like the Uni is helping with the exposure side of things also :)

[robbo24]

Now look here you two (Robbo & Left Field)...you need to stop ramping up this stock. You have been warned before (on numerous occasions) and it is just not good enough. For goodness sake, if you carry on like this there may one or two out there that actually want to purchase this stock and god, if that happens it may force the price back up to the dizzy level of $1.05. And if that happens, the big seller waiting in the wings - who obviously sees no benefit in holding PEB shares - well, they will just have to keep selling to get the price back down .......

The question is....where will the SP be at the close of play next Thursday? And then, where will it be at the close next Friday........ Can hardly wait.

Balance knows the identity of the big seller/s.

He also knows the identity of the big buyer/s.

Here I was thinking the Masfens just kept on selling after their SSH.

[Dentie]

They're ramping up and you're ramping down. It's called opinion and it's free of charge whether you agree or not. If you'd like to propose some legal document guaranteeing this share will flop then out with it.

Calm down FP - you're getting all excited for nothing. I had tongue in cheek at the time of writing....I thought that may have been obvious....:rolleyes:. Just relax and enjoy mate ......

[Minerbarejet]

Balance knows the identity of the big seller/s.

He also knows the identity of the big buyer/s.

Here I was thinking the Masfens just kept on selling after their SSH.Well if Balance knows all that why doesnt he give them a quick buzz and get them together off market and save us all a lot of turmoil. Never know might be something in brokering a large deal. Could buy some more PEB with the proceeds.
Cheers:)

[Dentie]

Balance knows the identity of the big seller/s.

He also knows the identity of the big buyer/s.

Here I was thinking the Masfens just kept on selling after their SSH.

I really couldn't care who it/they is/are Robbo.

I'll laugh though if they want to get back in ... and have to pay a large premium for it!

Mind you, I'll start getting edgy if it drops to .20

[skid]

I really couldn't care who it/they is/are Robbo.

I'll laugh though if they want to get back in ... and have to pay a large premium for it!

Mind you, I'll start getting edgy if it drops to .20

Pacific Edgy

[skid]

I myself stayed at optimism; others rode the wave, not I.

I assume you are talking about the wave down--lets not forget all those who were only to happy to ride the wave up

[Minerbarejet]

This could help eventually.


Faster Turnaround

May 21, 2014




A pair of lawmakers in the US House of Representatives has teamed up on an [CLICK HERE for full story}initiative to modernize (http://news.sciencemag.org/funding/2014/05/u.s.-house-bipartisan-pair-launches-quest-speedier-cures) the drug development and approval process, ScienceInsider reports.
Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) and Rep. Diana DeGette (D-CO) are concerned about the increasing time and cost it takes to get a drug to market. "Health research is moving quickly, but the federal drug and device approval apparatus is in many ways the relic of another era. We have dedicated scientists and bold leaders at agencies like the NIH and the FDA, but when our laws don't keep pace with innovation, we all lose," DeGette said in a video announcing the initiative (http://energycommerce.house.gov/press-release/path-21st-century-cures).
Their bipartisan 21st Century Cures initiative is currently seeking input from scientists, patients, regulators, and industry, and then may introduce laws aimed at speeding up the transition of therapies from the lab into the clinic.
The duo recently held an informal roundtable that included National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins and Janet Woodcock from the Food and Drug Administration, among others. That discussion, ScienceInsider reports, focused on "what are likely to be recurring buzzwords," including setting up "clinical trial networks," finding "surrogate endpoints" for clinical trials, and increasing the use of the "accelerated approval" option

[False Profit]

no worries dentie it seemed fairly obvious that your tongue was firmly in cheek.... me thinks FP must be having a bad hair day:)

Alright alright. Forgive me for being the "Thread Police". I'll keep out of the chummy chummy entries you boys obviously get up to. Get a room!

[Copper]

Maybe David needs some more renovations to his house or whatever. I am going to hold all until something big happens.

I just hope in this market that the builder doesn't have to be paid the moment after the next main announcement is made.

[Dentie]

Alright alright. Forgive me for being the "Thread Police". I'll keep out of the chummy chummy entries you boys obviously get up to. Get a room!

hahaha...not necessarily "chummy, chummy" FP - just have to have a sense of humour when having to sit through the wildly fluctuating SP that PEB has had over the past months.

You're all good mate!

[Xerof]

I'm not particularly interested in the sales numbers in isolation - more important for me will be the replacement of "significantly more pre-purchase dissonance than was expected" with "we are seeing steady adoption into the clinical pathways, especially in the USA......."

that will be enough encouragement for me for now, as there are a large number of other news events still to come.

I'll try to find out who has been selling recently once my broker gets out of bed

[MAC]

Yep, I would settle for that; news of a greater uptake by urologists would gladden my heart immensely, because an increase in sales is also implied.

Some commentary on good progress toward achieving HMO client agreements would be welcome too. With the insurers 2015 rate submission deadline for Obamacare having moved from March to May, they may well have a better feel again now for when also.

[winner69]

Is this June 1st date set in concrete or just a guess?

[Wolf]

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/825327?src=rss
Medscape Article posted on Pacific Edges Facebook you can view via there facebook

No need to scare monger Moosie 99c-100c support holding fine

[Copper]

Shall see if Sir Dumpsalot appears this afternoon to inspire some eh?

Without being too pessimistic I must say that the 100/101 quote of weeks has become 99/100 which in my opinion is very significant.....

[NZSilver]

Without being too pessimistic I must say that the 100/101 quote of weeks has become 99/100 which in my opinion is very significant.....

agreed - think there may be a good chance to pick up some "on sale" peb shares in the near future.

[Copper]

It is, and has just turned into major resistance...

I hope for all holding that next week is a great announcement that breaks $1 again, but one cannot argue that TA has no effect on the market...

I don't know what your quote info is like but I seem to have observed that the large seller I have referred to regularly started with 150 to 200,000 lots at 110 ish then it got down to 100 thou as time went by at a lower price and recently in 100/105 range it's been fifties.Today there seem to be lots of 25,000.Could this be the same bloke just meeting the buying strength.Just an observation.If it is then there's a headwind in the market.IMHO.

[Xerof]

the shareholders list (albeit dated 12 May), shows one seller from the #1 holder, NZCDC, which unfortunately tells us nothing, as it's got most of the institutional holdings in it. could be tracker funds 'having' to sell - not sure how they operate TBH, maybe someone else has expertise in that area and could advise the troops

Everybody else has held, including all the recent names speculated to be selling, a few local brokers have added small amounts, but there is ONE significant new entrant for a decent sized parcel. Searching the companies office was quite revealing - the shareholders have strong connections in the pharma industry, and one of the shareholders names ring a bell, but haven't placed it yet.........and wouldn't want to speculate. This new entrant bought everything in a short period of time....

But according to our day trader friend, it's going to zero, we're all doomed, so what would I know......

[Minerbarejet]

It is, and has just turned into major resistance...

I hope for all holding that next week is a great announcement that breaks $1 again, but one cannot argue that TA has no effect on the market...Oh well, there is one good thing about this carry on. If we ever get back to 1.70 it will be on the back of decent sales not on hype so the slightest sniff of progress as planned in sales and we wont be worrying about 1.00 a share again.

[Copper]

the shareholders list (albeit dated 12 May), shows one seller from the #1 holder, NZCDC, which unfortunately tells us nothing, as it's got most of the institutional holdings in it. could be tracker funds 'having' to sell - not sure how they operate TBH, maybe someone else has expertise in that area and could advise the troops

Everybody else has held, including all the recent names speculated to be selling, a few local brokers have added small amounts, but there is ONE significant new entrant for a decent sized parcel. Searching the companies office was quite revealing - the shareholders have strong connections in the pharma industry, and one of the shareholders names ring a bell, but haven't placed it yet.........and wouldn't want to speculate. This new entrant bought everything in a short period of time....

But according to our day trader friend, it's going to zero, we're all doomed, so what would I know......

Nice post Xerof..many tks.The mention of a shareholder with connections to the pharmacy industry,could it go back to PEB and all those other companies like Bliss etc that arose at the same time. A lot of those had extensive Dunedin connections that are probably still there today.

[Xerof]

Nice post Xerof..many tks.The mention of a shareholder with connections to the pharmacy industry,could it go back to PEB and all those other companies like Bliss etc that arose at the same time. A lot of those had extensive Dunedin connections that are probably still there today.

I wouldn't want to speculate - that could get me in hot water. The name should be published in the next AR, as they come in at #41 on the hit parade. After it's out there, anyone can dig deeper as they see fit.

I note some are thinking global, but no, it's only local, nevertheless they threw a million at it in quick time. I like the confidence shown by that move

[NZSilver]

Now this is exciting - if you are a true PEB supporter in the long term you should be getting very excited right now, some cheap shares on offer, looking to hit 80's soon! (just pulled my bid from 91cents)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Now this is exciting - if you are a true PEB supporter in the long term you should be getting very excited right now, some cheap shares on offer, looking to hit 80's soon! (just pulled my bid from 91cents)

Stops being hit. 100 now going to be a pretty strong resistance I suspect. Index funds aren't gonna be too happy eh?

[Copper]

I wouldn't want to speculate - that could get me in hot water. The name should be published in the next AR, as they come in at #41 on the hit parade. After it's out there, anyone can dig deeper as they see fit.

I note some are thinking global, but no, it's only local, nevertheless they threw a million at it in quick time. I like the confidence shown by that move

You gave me an idea that it may be AFT who have Prostate ,colorectal and kidney tests among many others.They are full to the gunwhales with cash after Gaynor and others filled the bucket.Dont want to speculate but it's fun guessing and digging...cheers.

[Wolf]

Good call moosie. Doesn't look like panic selling to me though. Just a steady fall. Interesting to see the close.

[nextbigthing]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A

[robbo24]

Please take a look at this chart:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=NZ%3APEB&time=100&startdate=10%2F1%2F2012&enddate=10%2F1%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=4&x=39&y=8&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9

This is the PEB chart for Oct 12 to Oct 13.

Looks familiar, doesn't it...

Can't wait for it to start all over again, the chart 'pattern' is the same and moosie says charts r da bomb.

[Whipmoney]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A

No need to be petty..

[Whipmoney]

very interesting robbo. Basically this stock surges on any positive announcement then progressively dies until the next announcement!

I think that is the fate of many stocks or rather the tragedy of the human condition.

This stock went up way to fast and way too far on a buzz of greed and enthusiam and has now collapsed somewhat through a combination of greed intertwined with fear, but alas history will no doubt repeat itself.

[robbo24]

very interesting robbo. Basically this stock surges on any positive announcement then progressively dies until the next announcement!

Pinbars galore, the 77c to 47c drop was a gruts ripper for some, and a similar drop to what we've seen lately.

Then nobody gave a shiz where they bought in... lol... Even those who bought at 77c were joyous.

However, as we all know the capital raising meant that the old numbers aren't a linear comparison to the new because $1 now is worth more than $1 pre capital raising.

And, of course, those big pre capital raising holders could very well be using their 100% gains (even at $1) to have a play with the stops and emotions.

Just sayin'..

[winner69]

Good company on the losers board today - leading the way Rubicon, NZ Windfarms, Bliss and Pacific Edge (Rakon a bit further down)

Leaving NZ Windfarms out there seems a few common threads (people and what they are trying todo) amongst the other three.

Ma

[robbo24]

Sparky said $2.50 by end of the year, see you there winner69.

Where will Rakon and bls be?

[robbo24]

Here it is, post 3689.


I found an old post from 05-01-2013 at 06:47 PM using Google Cache from SparkytheClown:

I don't disagree with your thesis. I was unaware that the CEO, David Darling, had aimed for $100m gross revenue by year five.

By my calculation, thats around $45m in NPAT, or thereabouts. Given that there is 287m shares on issue, that would suggest EPS of around 15.7c.

Using my VERY rusty back-of-the-envelope clown calculations, (2 X Growth X EPS) that would suggest 1c EPS for 2014, with 100% growth for every year for the next four years (five year avg growth of 100%), e.g. EPS of 1c, 2c, 4, 8c, 16c.

2 X 100% growth X 1c EPS = 2013 share price target of $2.00.

Thereafter we will apply a terminal rate of 5% growth thereafter for years extending past year five

2 X 81% growth X 2c EPS = 2014 share price target of $3.24
2 X 62% growth X 4c EPS = 2015 share price target of $4.96
2 X 43% growth X 8c EPS = 2016 share price target of $6.88
2 X 25% growth X 16c EPS = 2017 share price target of $8.00

Sounds good to me, though this is very back of the envelope. Apologies if maths is wonky, and please correct me if I'm wrong.

On Sparky's spreadsheet of lies and distortions, PEB gives me a price target of $2.50 using the 2014 figures, and $6.30 for the 2017 figures. That more rigourous formula applies a risk free rates and less ambitious growth multipliers.

Of course, its more likely that a US pharmaceutical company will pounce in 2015 if earnings look like rocketing up.

[robbo24]

Wow this was on the PEB Facebook page, CXBladder can save our women! http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/825327?src=rss

By Sparkies calculation, if we give post capital raising PEB $500nz earnings per test then it needs 6373 tests for the 14 year to support his calculations... 500 tests per month? Easy?

[robbo24]

Sparky also had a $9.xx and $11.xx one for DIL.

We are all only human my friend.

(Sorry to Sparky for the low blow if he's watching and can't comment. Just had to!)


Financials could be relied on at that point... Give it a few weeks when the financials can be relied on by institutions..

[Copper]

Financials could be relied on at that point... Give it a few weeks when the financials can be relied on by institutions..
I think the financials are the only starting point.The recent logic and assumptions on this site do not relate in any way to the share price movements.The institutions and the broker analysts have a big influence and sway the real money flows.Charts and TA can show some trends but tend to feed on outside influences and events.A bit like broker analysts who only base assumptions on actual data.If they thought that something may happen and someone acted on it and it went up the creek,they could be sued. We live in a nanna state.Auditors only find something after it's happened.Both Balance and Moosie and others will say DYOR and mine is as I've posted .There are sellers out there,the buyers are thin and the damn thing is going down ,all be it slowly as a poster said earlier.You are in a vacuum folks .IMHO....

[Copper]

Oh god, there are some major cracks showing; not in Pacific Edge Limited, but those AR$E#OLES that are gloating in their colleagues suffering a dip in share price; and, those that post the state the bloody obvious with the benefit of hind sight, what a clever person I am advice.

I feel sorry for both; those that have suffered the dip, and those of such weak character that this is their pleasure. However, those with shares will rise again, for the others, your burden will continue.
Points noted Hancocks but I hope you are not aiming that at me.I am not gloating at any loss any shareholder may make but I am using my experience to portray on a sharechat site not a medical site that the trend is not good. I have no sway over it so don't blame me.Holding a share for ethical or moral reasons is laudable but as an investment sometimes other factors are at play.I think the Company deserves all the credit that can be reigned on it but don't try and relate the stunning performance of the Company with what the share price does.I hope this thing plays out in a positive manner ,all the posters on this site are very appreciative of your knowledgeable input,including me ,it's just that I am commenting on the shareprice not the achievements of the Company. Kind regards....

[robbo24]

Here are some quotes from the afternoon and early evening of 15 October 2013. The day before the PEB SP started its marching orders upwards. Funny how history repeats itself. Even more funny how Moosie the Historian is replicating himself!


Someone is intent on pulling PEB back to .50 each time that it raises its S P up to .53 + I wonder who it could be ?


Better hope that report in November is goooooood if you're holding right now! Traders be trading ;)


After a reasonable amount of research I'm finally in. Modest holding as I'm expecting poor sales in the next announcement but for things to slowly crank after that. Even if it does tank after the next announcement I'm happy to have paid 50c a share as long term I believe its a bargain and happy to be in just in case I'm wrong and the next announcement is positive.

NBT


You must wonder about their motivations more... someone keeping the price down in preparation for a takeover offer? Purely speculation but I wouldn't put it past a big international biotech who wanted to take over a very innovative and game changing biotech company... again purely speculation but one must wonder!


Wish i could be a fly on the wall in these upcoming meetings, PEB to exhibit CX Bladder.

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/calendar-of-events/

[Dentie]

Here are some quotes from the afternoon and early evening of 15 October 2013. The day before the PEB SP started its marching orders upwards. Funny how history repeats itself. Even more funny how Moosie the Historian is replicating himself!

Yeah - nice one Robbo. Remember it only becomes a LOSS after you have sold for less than you paid. Until then, it's just a ride ...... Why would you buy shares if you can't afford a loss in the first place or worse, if you can't handle the ride? Lemmings comes to mind.....

[Leftfield]

well posted Robbo :)

[MAC]

Oh god, there are some major cracks showing; not in Pacific Edge Limited, but those AR$E#OLES that are gloating in their colleagues suffering a dip in share price; and, those that post the state the bloody obvious with the benefit of hind sight, what a clever person I am advice.

I feel sorry for both; those that have suffered the dip, and those of such weak character that this is their pleasure. However, those with shares will rise again, for the others, your burden will continue.

A the end of the day Hancock’s you will have the last laugh.

At years end when the SP is over $2, when in 2016 it is over $5, when you have accumulated shares at discounted rights issue prices over years, paid no brokerage, paid no tax, and have prospered you may have the satisfaction in knowing you’ve out done them all.

Leave that bottle of scotch on the shelf, the longer it sits the better it gets.

[Xerof]

Robbo, I've been suffering deja vu again too :cool:

I await the large crossing at, say 85 to 90, then the rally, in a repeat of the price action from late last year perhaps

i feel sorry for the distressed seller, just as I did for that fund who gave it away at 47

btw, the very recent new entrant to the register I mentioned earlier, has a richlister as one of the two shareholders. They are usually pretty tight with their own money.

[nextbigthing]

Moosie, DIL's growth was slowing, PEB's is just beginning. :)

[nextbigthing]

"She'll be right", "good things take time", "it can't stay down long, it's a great company".

Finally you're making some sense Moosie.




After 5 months of beating myself silly

Probably the wrong forum/website Moosie.

[blackcap]

Oh god, there are some major cracks showing; not in Pacific Edge Limited, but those AR$E#OLES that are gloating in their colleagues suffering a dip in share price; and, those that post the state the bloody obvious with the benefit of hind sight, what a clever person I am advice.

I feel sorry for both; those that have suffered the dip, and those of such weak character that this is their pleasure. However, those with shares will rise again, for the others, your burden will continue.

Interesting that this would bother you so much to comment on it? If you believe in the company is it not better that the share price declines so that you can pick up more at a bargain price? Ie right now PEB are having a 25% sale (from last month) and if we are lucky that may become a 40% sale soon enough if the charts are to be believed. :)

[nextbigthing]

Moosie, for the benefit of us all, please seek professional help.

:D

Anywho, enough clogging the thread.

[nextbigthing]

Anybody brave enough to predict what's going to happen to the PEB shareprice tomorrow?

[MAC]

Anybody brave enough to predict what's going to happen to the PEB shareprice tomorrow?

It’s just a hunch but,

The NBI pennant will break, the lab rats will suddenly and inspirationally realise that zero sales and reverse roll out progress has been absurdly and incorrectly priced in, that the SP is 83% off its highs, 90% below fundamental valuation and 68% below the previous HY14 reporting point.

Said lab rats will panic, many will miss out on a perfectly perfect entry point and spend the next 12 months on the side lines as bitter and twisted stock knockers with residual timing anxiety, others will chase the share price all the way to $2 dollars and still not catch it by Xmas.

Hancock's and the smart investors will just sit back and continue to do what they always do, watch and smile as others play the traders game (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=473916&highlight=the+traders+game#post473916).

[Whipmoney]

It’s just a hunch but,

The NBI pennant will break, the lab rats will suddenly and inspirationally realise that zero sales and reverse roll out progress has been absurdly and incorrectly priced in, that the SP is 83% off its highs, 90% below fundamental valuation and 68% below the previous HY14 reporting point.

Said lab rats will panic, many will miss out on a perfectly perfect entry point and spend the next 12 months on the side lines as bitter and twisted stock knockers with residual timing anxiety, others will chase the share price all the way to $2 dollars and still not catch it by Xmas.

Hancock's and the smart investors will just sit back and continue to do what they always do, watch and smile as others play the traders game (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=473916&highlight=the+traders+game#post473916).

MAC I do love you work. That being said..

1) Theres no way this stock is worth a $1.70 (fundamentally) as it currently stands. I don't think any rationale 'value' investor (at least from the graham/dodd/buffet school) would pay half a billion for a company with no demonstrated sales record, particularly where there is significant commercialisation risk. Obviously its value will be clearer/re-defined on the 30th.

2) being 83% off its highs is meaningless in terms of defining its fundamental value, particularly where irrational exuberance is concerned.

3) Whilst you're probably right about the traders being burned/outperformed by the long-term holders in the long-run, holders could have saved themselves a fair bit of pain by selling when this thing was way overvalued. I appreciate this is easier said than done as there was some likelihood than further announcements would pump this thing up but then again they didn't exactly amount to instant sales/cash-flow which at the end of the day is what really matters.

All I think that has happened is that the stock got too carried away and has undergone a severe correction through the absence of any additional information. Hopefully on the 30th well get some positive news and see a return to 1.20 - 1.30.

Despite all the chicken little posts I think that is a fairly probably outcome but then again if I'm right it will probably overshoot somewhat and the process will repeat.

[MAC]

It’s just a hunch but,

The NBI pennant will break, the lab rats will suddenly and inspirationally realise that zero sales and reverse roll out progress has been absurdly and incorrectly priced in, that the SP is 83% off its highs, 90% below fundamental valuation and 68% below the previous HY14 reporting point.

Said lab rats will panic, many will miss out on a perfectly perfect entry point and spend the next 12 months on the side lines as bitter and twisted stock knockers with residual timing anxiety, others will chase the share price all the way to $2 dollars and still not catch it by Xmas.

Hancock's and the smart investors will just sit back and continue to do what they always do, watch and smile as others play the traders game (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=473916&highlight=the+traders+game#post473916).

Postscript:

Either that or Mr Pharma with a four year pile of accumulated greenbacks looking for a good home will say to Misses Pharma, how about we have that one, it’s a perfectly good very prospective young company and the locals have kindly trashed the share price on no news.

Mr Phama thus will scribble out a cheque for $3 a share over breakfast and Misses Pharma will happily complete the transaction at the bank by midday knowing that the kid’s prosperity just took another leap and that a nice bright yellow VW beetle should be on the cards for Xmas.

[Snow Leopard]

The psychological perspectives of this thread are currently absolutely fascinating.
No wonder it gets so many views.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: McLaren fan.

[winner69]

Anybody brave enough to predict what's going to happen to the PEB shareprice tomorrow?

It could go down .....might go up .....then again do both and end the day unchanged

My prediction ......somewhere between 50 cents and $1.50

[winner69]

The psychological perspectives of this thread are currently absolutely fascinating.
No wonder it gets so many views.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: McLaren fan.

Balance's mate at the London School of Economics has moved on from the Pike River and Diligent threads to this thread in search of raw material for her next paper

We all mrright get quoted one day

MAC is a lab rat himself in this exercise .....that's funny/ ironic in itself

[Dentie]

Does anyone know who this mob are...or what they do in who's space?

http://imgur.com/SH61eXS

658 views in just 14 hours ... they seem to have a following.

[skid]

A the end of the day Hancock’s you will have the last laugh.

At years end when the SP is over $2, when in 2016 it is over $5, when you have accumulated shares at discounted rights issue prices over years, paid no brokerage, paid no tax, and have prospered you may have the satisfaction in knowing you’ve out done them all.

Leave that bottle of scotch on the shelf, the longer it sits the better it gets.

With all due respect ,its newbies who listened to this advice and bought in at 1.70 that are paying the price--Im guessing that if they are blaming someone--its not the posters you guys are speaking of.
This is a spec stock ,but alot made the mistake of thinking of it as a Blue Chip.
The company is most likely the same but the market turned.
You cant blame those who missed out on the tripling of the share price to want a chance to get in at a possibly fairer valuation.
What if the SP had SLOWLY gone up from .50 to eventually .95--No one would be complaining.
Speculation caused the rise and fall (perhaps even fueled by some posts on here)?
Im also guessing those that are complaining most are still 100% up (?)
No need for antagonism

[NZSilver]

Anybody brave enough to predict what's going to happen to the PEB shareprice tomorrow?

Lower than close/Hoping somewhere between 80-90cents for some good top up time! Even happier if it goes lower.

[psychic]

As a distraction and sorry if this commented on already, but I see PCLS acquired certndx assets from Predictive Biosciences.
They look like they intend to run with it, cms coverage or no.
Was there ever a direct comparison cxbladder / certndx?
http://www.pcls.com/testing/cancer-biomarkers/

http://www.pcls.com/press-release/pcls-announces-acquisition-certndx-bladder-cancer-diagnostic-testing-assets-predictive-biosciences/

[Balance]

Relax, folks.

Think cool breeze on a humid day.

[barney]

From PEB facebook page.

Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA currently hiring.

- Clinical Laboratory Aide
-Clinical Laboratory Technician.

[robbo24]

From PEB facebook page.

Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA currently hiring.

- Clinical Laboratory Aide
-Clinical Laboratory Technician.

Omfg how many do they need??? Seriously they are just wasting money until they have sales???

Oh... Wait...

[Minerbarejet]

From PEB facebook page.

Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA currently hiring.

- Clinical Laboratory Aide
-Clinical Laboratory Technician.Now why the heck would they do that? Hmmmmm

[Trigger]

If PCLS run the clinical trials and the test proves as effective as they say it is; then it will be direct competition for Pacific Edge, but whether it is this test or another, competition will arrive sooner or later. (if it is not already here).

What sort of lead time would be required for PCLS to jump through the requisite hoops Hancocks?

[Balance]

Balance's mate at the London School of Economics has moved on from the Pike River and Diligent threads to this thread in search of raw material for her next paper

We all mrright get quoted one day

MAC is a lab rat himself in this exercise .....that's funny/ ironic in itself

Sitting back and watching the ebb and flow of emotions follow the sp.

Have never made money myself buying and selling on emotions so will leave it to the day traders here to make their fortunes.

[Dentie]

Omfg how many do they need??? Seriously they are just wasting money until they have sales???

Oh... Wait...

Oh God...I agree ...why would they do that ....do they have sales ....?

Why would they have positions for accounts type people?

Job Opportunities in USA

Director of Payer Relations (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/director-of-payer-relations?stage=Stage)
Account Executive - Boston (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/account-executive-boston-?stage=Stage)
Strategic Accounts Manager (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/strategic-accounts-manager?stage=Stage)
Clinical Laboratory Aide (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/clinical-laboratory-aide-?stage=Stage)
Clinical Laboratory Technician (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/clinical-laboratory-technician?stage=Stage)

[barney]

Oh God...I agree ...why would they do that ....do they have sales ....?

Why would they have positions for accounts type people?

Job Opportunities in USA

Director of Payer Relations (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/director-of-payer-relations?stage=Stage)
Account Executive - Boston (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/account-executive-boston-?stage=Stage)
Strategic Accounts Manager (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/strategic-accounts-manager?stage=Stage)
Clinical Laboratory Aide (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/clinical-laboratory-aide-?stage=Stage)
Clinical Laboratory Technician (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/careers/clinical-laboratory-technician?stage=Stage)


I could be wrong, but I think the first 3 positions may have been filled some time ago. The two lab positions are new.

[mis chief]

As the Tiger said, post #8650, "The psychological perspectives of this thread are currently absolutely fascinating."

For the odd poster who is troubled by the job ops advertised stateside, perhaps they should ask their question directly to the business if they are so concerned? It may be that the people running the business have a fair idea of what they need, whereas outsiders are blatantly capable of adding 1+1 and getting....?

[Trigger]

I would suggest that they have a lot of the marketing and clinical infrastructure and staff in place – a clinical trial just needs patient numbers and the bioinformatics, and of course we have no idea if they haven’t done that already, well worth keeping an eye on. I certainly would not disregard CertNDX in future.

Thanks. Agree particularly with your last statement.

[Minerbarejet]

As the Tiger said, post #8650, "The psychological perspectives of this thread are currently absolutely fascinating."

For the odd poster who is troubled by the job ops advertised stateside, perhaps they should ask their question directly to the business if they are so concerned? It may be that the people running the business have a fair idea of what they need, whereas outsiders are blatantly capable of adding 1+1 and getting....?
Good to see you have been let out.
I dont think it is concern, more grasping at straws in the current environment. Peb know what they are doing and may in fact have to replace all these positions, people do move on, or are not up to snuff, again, another unknown. However if they are in a position to require additional staff then one would hardly think they are doing it to decorate the smoko room.
B flat miner (note of sarcasm)

[robbo24]

I would suggest that they have a lot of the marketing and clinical infrastructure and staff in place – a clinical trial just needs patient numbers and the bioinformatics, and of course we have no idea if they haven’t done that already, well worth keeping an eye on. I certainly would not disregard CertNDX in future.

Bladder cancer must be a worthwhile endeavour if someone else wants to do it too..

[MAC]

Bladder cancer must be a worthwhile endeavour if someone else wants to do it too..

Lots to be said for having a first mover advantage as well and a market that may already be saturated with 3 or 4 cxbladder products but the time anyone else either jumps the regulatory barrier or is otherwise deterred by an entrenched market. The more traction Pacific Edge can get the sooner the better.

Something though, on my list of subtle questions for the AGM, is how far the NZ, USA and Australian patents extends for that clever software Pacific Edge use in achieving the very high sensitivity levels. I'm not sure the competition can actually directly replicate or produce an equivalent product, but they may have a totally different non RNA software based process altogether, who knows.

[Mista_Trix]

Good to see you have been let out.
I dont think it is concern, more grasping at straws in the current environment. Peb know what they are doing and may in fact have to replace all these positions, people do move on, or are not up to snuff, again, another unknown. However if they are in a position to require additional staff then one would hardly think they are doing it to decorate the smoko room.
B flat miner (note of sarcasm)

My workplace is in a similar state of growth - exponential.
The jobs we have on our website, if the right person applied we would hire them on the spot, so we keep several job ads up on the website at all times to let people know they can just apply at any time. The ones we take down are the areas we don't have growth in - ie. we had a general admin position, it was taken down as soon as the spot was filled. We have other roles - Graphics, Development, PM, and Instructional Designers - all of which are on the website at all times, because we would take anyone who was the right fit - as we're in growth mode. We also cant hire people quick enough to fill the roles for the work we have coming in, so we keep them up. When we do hire people we make the work fit the number of people - as we have more work than we have people available to do it.

Makes me wonder if they're in the same position...

[Dentie]

Bladder cancer must be a worthwhile endeavour if someone else wants to do it too..

Agree ... there are plenty of other businesses that survive with more than one player....RYM, SUM,MET....XRO (sorry Mr T:t_up:),MYOB,INTUIT.. etc etc

[Mista_Trix]

Agree ... there are plenty of other businesses that survive with more than one player....RYM, SUM,MET....XRO (sorry Mr T:t_up:),MYOB,INTUIT.. etc etc

Haha I wish ... well not really, the role I do would be very boring there.
We're a learning solutions privder - grown in staff over the last 6 years - 4, 9, 15, 19, 27, 38, then got bought out by a foreign company.

But the leaving up of positions feels like it follows the same pattern.

[Xerof]

I note with great disappointment that our resident non-holding TA expert has not yet highlighted the bullish breakout on the ^NBI overnight.

Oh, right on cue, there's the off market crossing I was looking out for too.

[psychic]

1.3m shares crossed at .95 just now

[youngatheart]

Probably a cashed up IQE holder looking for the next big thing less than one week before an announcement...

[Whipmoney]

Probably a cashed up IQE holder looking for the next big thing less than one week before an announcement...

IQE?

Looks like this ship is slowly turning. The 30th will be very interesting indeed!

[robbo24]

I'll stand in for moosie here: "Keep an eye out for a close above 1.00, that would be a very bullish sign."

[Mista_Trix]

If this can hold, well done to those that caught the falling knife :-S

[youngatheart]

Yes IQE - Intueri Education Group. They listed today and are up 16% so far, with $24 million stocks traded. All that dosh has got to go somewheres...

[Dentie]

If this can hold, well done to those that caught the falling knife :-S

Judging on recent history Mista, 4 or 5pm will be the telling point

[Copper]

I note with great disappointment that our resident non-holding TA expert has not yet highlighted the bullish breakout on the ^NBI overnight.

Oh, right on cue, there's the off market crossing I was looking out for too.
If that was the recent constant seller finally getting out then that's great.May be a one off though.we will see if it gets back in dollar country and no one appears....

[BigBob]

I'll stand in for moosie here: "Keep an eye out for a close above 1.00, that would be a very bullish sign."

Would this then be referred to as a "moose trap"...?

[robbo24]

Would this then be referred to as a "moose trap"...?

That may explain his absence...

[youngatheart]

He's winging his way to Auckland for the weekend...

[robbo24]

He's winging his way to Auckland for the weekend...

Winging? Like, complaining? Or is that whingeing?

[psychic]

I would suggest that they have a lot of the marketing and clinical infrastructure and staff in place – a clinical trial just needs patient numbers and the bioinformatics, and of course we have no idea if they haven’t done that already, well worth keeping an eye on. I certainly would not disregard CertNDX in future.

The CEO of Predictive suggested at the time they lost CMS coverage that it would take 18-24 months to complete a clinical utility study and have it reviewed and published etc. But instead they walked away from the $77m invested and shut shop. 90 employees losing jobs..

They had previously conducted a study of 733 patients and came up with what seemed like very good results. And these were peer reviewed and published . Lab approved, all go. $1.0m sales 2011, $4.2m 2012 and on track to reach $14.2m 2013. 10% of US Urologists had ordered the tests which cost $380.

All very queer, and agree - not to be disregarded...

[Citizen Erased]

Bloody stop loss saw me lose nearly a quarter of my PEB holding at 95 cents yesterday. I'm a newbie investor and still learning the ropes. After getting burned on Diligent (still holding at a big loss), I decided stop losses are important, even for long term investors. In hindsight, I should have set it a bit lower though. Oh well, live and learn. I'll wait until the preliminary full year report is out before deciding whether to reinvest those funds in PEB. Are these reports usually released after the market is closed, or do I need to remain glued to my screen next Friday?

[Copper]

The CEO of Predictive suggested at the time they lost CMS coverage that it would take 18-24 months to complete a clinical utility study and have it reviewed and published etc. But instead they walked away from the $77m invested and shut shop. 90 employees losing jobs..

They had previously conducted a study of 733 patients and came up with what seemed like very good results. And these were peer reviewed and published . Lab approved, all go. $1.0m sales 2011, $4.2m 2012 and on track to reach $14.2m 2013. 10% of US Urologists had ordered the tests which cost $380.

All very queer, and agree - not to be disregarded...
I am but an investor as against the clinically knowledgeable people.Perhaps Hancocks may comment but from my investor DYOR position I find the statement quite concerning.We are still in that period of uncertainty and unrest despite relative calm today in the market.

[MAC]

Darling explains the three independent, but related, pieces of IP associated with the Cxbladder technology. That ‘juice’ is number one. The second is an algorithm that combines the information from the gene expression patterns into a single digit output defining the probability that the patient has cancer. The third is the patents that define the five genes that “create the relationship between the disease and the genes.

“On the subject of competitors, he says there were US ventures starting out the same time as them. However, these “gene jockeys”, as he calls them, were using very different, less robust, gene discovery processes. By exercising tighter controls and consistent processes, Pacific Edge simply stole the edge on their American counterparts. “We were out of the blocks early and able to get a good position in the market by filing these genes and their relationship to the cancers as part of our IP,”

http://exportermagazine.co.nz/comment/reply/2595

[Copper]

Darling explains the three independent, but related, pieces of IP associated with the Cxbladder technology. That ‘juice’ is number one. The second is an algorithm that combines the information from the gene expression patterns into a single digit output defining the probability that the patient has cancer. The third is the patents that define the five genes that “create the relationship between the disease and the genes.Jj

“On the subject of competitors, he says there were US ventures starting out the same time as them. However, these “gene jockeys”, as he calls them, were using very different, less robust, gene discovery processes. By exercising tighter controls and consistent processes, Pacific Edge simply stole the edge on their American counterparts. “We were out of the blocks early and able to get a good position in the market by filing these genes and their relationship to the cancers as part of our IP,”

http://exportermagazine.co.nz/comment/reply/2595

Many tks that fills in a few gaps..per my post 8689......

[Copper]

Bloody stop loss saw me lose nearly a quarter of my PEB holding at 95 cents yesterday. I'm a newbie investor and still learning the ropes. After getting burned on Diligent (still holding at a big loss), I decided stop losses are important, even for long term investors. In hindsight, I should have set it a bit lower though. Oh well, live and learn. I'll wait until the preliminary full year report is out before deciding whether to reinvest those funds in PEB. Are these reports usually released after the market is closed, or do I need to remain glued to my screen next Friday?
I only comment as an old investor.Stop losses would have saved me tens of thousands over the years if I had set them at say 10%. The problem is that if you like a stock you tend to stay with it.A type of greed mentality.You are then at the mercy of the markets.With PEB you have a spec stock to a degree and Diligent is in the same space.To get it right is what it is all about.Balance will take an experience approach,Moosie on the other hand will take a technical approach.Hancocks will give a great technical perspective.In the middle you have all the posters here who may know it all or sometimes nothing.We are but mortals.If the share market is where you think you may make money quickly and you are a farmer, then stick to farming.I just wish you well but use a bit of personal nouse to sort the shi.... from the clay.Just a personal comment .cheers......

[psychic]

Cheers Mac. Yes, I'm guessing/ hoping that Predictive Shareholders recognised that cxbladder had the battle won to have pulled the plug? Someone must have the goss on this as it must have been huge for PEB at the time?

The founder of Predictive has gone on to work on colorectal cancer diagnostics.. know thy enemy eh

[Copper]

[QUOTE=psychic;482126]Cheers Mac. Yes, I'm guessing/ hoping that Predictive Shareholders recognised that cxbladder had the battle won to have pulled the plug? Someone must have the goss on this as it must have been huge for PEB at the time?

The founder of Predictive has gone on to work on colorectal cancer diagnostics.. know thy enemy eh[/QUOT
That's a very revealing post if u are right.Which you may well be.tks

[nextbigthing]

10% of US Urologists had ordered the tests which cost $380...

There has been a lot of concern about CXBladder gaining traction and Urologists being unwilling to change... Hopefully the above statement is proof that PEB stands a good chance (and of getting at least 10%). Thanks for the post Psychic.

[youngatheart]

Oh well, that was probably just the out-of-towners like yourself, lost and looking for directions! Hah! Really good news on the job front there Moosie :0)

[robbo24]

Bloody stop loss saw me lose nearly a quarter of my PEB holding at 95 cents yesterday. I'm a newbie investor and still learning the ropes. After getting burned on Diligent (still holding at a big loss), I decided stop losses are important, even for long term investors. In hindsight, I should have set it a bit lower though. Oh well, live and learn. I'll wait until the preliminary full year report is out before deciding whether to reinvest those funds in PEB. Are these reports usually released after the market is closed, or do I need to remain glued to my screen next Friday?

LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL nice try playa...

HAHAHAHA

[winner69]

Had an interesting drive around Auckland today. After completing my drop-offs/pick-ups I found myself stuck in the thickest of Auckland traffic jams. Not much seemed to be happening, and then my phone, which was guiding me, died before I had reached my final destination. I ended up driving down suburban streets trying to find this one street as I knew it was in the area, but kept hitting dead ends and nearly got totally lost. Fortunately, I managed to have the forethought to run into a local shop and ask the clerk, who spoke very little English, how to get to my destination. Well, he wrote those directions down perfectly and I managed to get there, settle down, eat a nice curry and drink a nice cold beer.

Apparently I did something right because I also got 2 messages when i recharged my phone saying i had an extension to my contract at work AND ACC is covering a recent injury!

Take from that what you may, but I hope PEB holders had a good a day as I did.

Moose

PS Still not moving to Dorkland. You guys are crazy drivers up here! :p

Good story moose ...terrible isn't it up there

A strong sustainable economy is based upon increasing productivity making real stuff.

Sitting in traffic jams for hours and when you think about how little Auckland actually produces conclusion is its doomed

Jeez ...they even rely on neighbours to supply them with water

[geo]

I'd go stir crazy doing that every day. I enjoy my three minute commute every day!

At least you didn't call us a bunch of JAFA'S Moosie.

[Minerbarejet]

Cheers Mac. Yes, I'm guessing/ hoping that Predictive Shareholders recognised that cxbladder had the battle won to have pulled the plug? Someone must have the goss on this as it must have been huge for PEB at the time?

The founder of Predictive has gone on to work on colorectal cancer diagnostics.. know thy enemy eh
Here you go, buddy. Johnny the Horse Post 1319, Page 185

Well it would appear CxBladder's main rival, Predictive Bioscience's Certndx, has just gone under.


The decision by a CMS contractor to deny coverage for bladder cancer diagnostics fromPredictive Biosciences Inc. (http://www.biocentury.com/companies/predictive_biosciences_inc) (Lexington, Mass.) has caused the molecular diagnostic company to close its doors and lay off its 91 employees, CEO Pierre Cassigneul told BioCentury. He said the company is not viable in the absence of Medicare coverage, noting that Medicare represents about half of the market for Predictive's CertNDx (http://www.biocentury.com/products/certndx) bladder cancer diagnostic tests and many private payers mimic Medicare's coverage and reimbursement policies. Predictive's three bladder cancer tests are marketed in the U.S. as laboratory-developed tests, which are not subject to FDA approval.
In January, the Medicare contractor responsible for Ohio, where Predictive Bioscience's CLIA-certified laboratory is located, stopped paying claims for the company's tests, Cassigneul said. The contractor, CGS Administrators LLC, had previously been reimbursing about $380 per test. In April, CGS informed Predictive that resumption of coverage would be contingent on the company producing evidence of clinical utility, Cassigneul told BioCentury. He said a study to demonstrate the utility of CertNDx to predict bladder cancer recurrence could take two years to conduct, and "our investors are not willing to go further in supporting the company." CGS could not be reached for comment.

Predictive was founded in 2006 and has raised $77 million from Flybridge Capital Partners; Highland Capital Partners;Kaiser Permanente Ventures; New Enterprise Associates; and ProQuest Investments. Cassigneul said the company was "on track for $14.5 million" in 2013 revenues before losing Medicare coverage. Predictive's revenues were $1 million in 2011 and $4.2 million in 2012.


From: http://www.biocentury.com/dailynews/...ve-biosciences (http://www.biocentury.com/dailynews/company/2013-05-29/cms-coverage-denial-shutting-down-predictive-biosciences)

More interesting info in threads on this board: http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/forumdisplay.php?f=701 (http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/forumdisplay.php?f=701)

From what I can tell, it turns out that their test was bit of a flop. I'm not certain of this though, still looking for some solid details. If they were on track for $14.5mil in sales, then I can't see Cxbladder having too many issues reaching targets if their product is as good as it claims. I guess it also points out potential risks for PEB too.

And this from Barney.
Interesting about Predictive Bioscience. I'm picking the difference between their product and CXBladder is that Pacific Edge have done the hard yards in terms of developing their product so they were able to provide category one clinical trial data. Good enough to be published in the American Journal Of Urology.

As has been mentioned previously on this thread, medical specialists can be a conservative lot, so getting the science right and providing the proper clinical evidence is essential in launching a new product. There might be some frustration regarding revenue to date, but things look to be on track to me.

Also Posts 1340 to1342
Very interesting that Kaiser Permanente was involved.

[Minerbarejet]

Cheers Mac. Yes, I'm guessing/ hoping that Predictive Shareholders recognised that cxbladder had the battle won to have pulled the plug? Someone must have the goss on this as it must have been huge for PEB at the time?

The founder of Predictive has gone on to work on colorectal cancer diagnostics.. know thy enemy eh
Pacific Edge's cxcolorectal is for prognosis, I understand, not diagnosis.

[psychic]

Many thanks Miner and Hancocks.

Yes, something very dodgy with that certndx eh. The link to the biocentury article is now behind a paywall Miner, but I see Casino found it later (where's he gone anyways?) and it is well worth the read :

http://media.drugwonks.com/media/attachments/51e67d5d2017a828be00000b.pdf?1374059870

I'm wondering if the certNdx test needed NMP22 and Cytology alongside to achieve it's results as it didn't seem to survive the scrutiny of the new CMS coding system?

Anyway. Here is some more light reading - Bluecross Policy on Urinary Tumor Markers , reviewed March 2014

https://www.bcbsal.org/providers/policies/final/433.pdf

It mentions both certndx and cxbladder as both being available commercially (but not approved by FDA or Bluecross); other tests that are not available yet; and details the tests that are used ( and approved) ie cytology, NMP22 etc.

Does it set the tone for the next review do you think? (I'm thinking cxbladders inclusion as as an adjuct to cystocopy and replacement of nmp22 and cytology)

It introduces cxbladder but is otherwise silent on it and seemingly does a good job of detailing the inadequacies of everything else...(Perhaps my enthusiasmm for cxbladder playing tricks)

cheers

[robbo24]

thanks for the info but once again I believe this further indicates the battle ahead cxbladder has.
For a start it looks like some insurance companies wont cover products that do not have FDA approval.
Secondly this comment there exists a dizzying number of markers identified using newer expertise
Whilst there is nothing wrong with a bit of competition one wonders how long it will be before cx bladder lose's it's advantage's both product wise and cost wise.
Can anyone explain to me why PEB have bought cx bladder to market prior to obtaining FDA approval. Seem's to me this could be a major issue.

Look up Laboratory Developed Tests. This has been discussed ad nauseum on this thread.

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for the links - by the time I get to the end in about 2017 things should be all sorted.:)
Boy there is certainly some stuff in there.

[robbo24]

thanks for the info but once again I believe this further indicates the battle ahead cxbladder has.
For a start it looks like some insurance companies wont cover products that do not have FDA approval.
Secondly this comment there exists a dizzying number of markers identified using newer expertise
Whilst there is nothing wrong with a bit of competition one wonders how long it will be before cx bladder lose's it's advantage's both product wise and cost wise.
Can anyone explain to me why PEB have bought cx bladder to market prior to obtaining FDA approval. Seem's to me this could be a major issue.

Look up Laboratory Developed Tests. This has been discussed ad nauseum on this thread.

[MAC]

A contextual point of note also from both a marketing and clinician’s ‘pre-dissonance’ perspective;

It takes a big quantum leap in technology for a new product in this sector to become a prevalent norm. NPM22 was a big leap and was the norm for over ten years until RNA based test methods were developed, which of course do a lot more than NMP22 is capable of also.

Cxbladder thus far is the leader in the race to become the takeover technology, it’s ahead in patent filing, clinical performance, laboratory readiness, commercial roll out, and market entry.

Consolidation is the now the key. If achieved progressively over the next 12 months, any competitor would have to come up with an even greater leap in technology to achieve the markets consideration as the next norm.

A competitive product the same or similar is not enough, even if they had regulatory approvals and laboratories all good to go tomorrow, PEB would still be ahead in the marketing race to become the new norm.

[Minerbarejet]

There seems to be a general tone in this thread that its all or nothing for PEB ( not meaning anyone in particular). This is not entirely true. It seems PEB's plan is to capture 10 to 15 percent of the US market. Raises the question - who captures the other 85%? Certndx? Cytology? NPM-22. Seems to be plenty of room for everybody to have a bit until it all gets sorted as to which is best - it will take time but once those results start coming back then who knows what the cxbladder market share will be. The question is really whether cxbladder is good enough to get established. Clinical trials have proven that it is superior to anything currently available so it looks as if it should have its day in the sun.
You also have to remember that PEB still has that pipeline and may be working on an improved cxbladder already after all they got a fair old whack from Callaghan for R&D. Its ongoing and not just focussed on the immediate future for one product. I believe that the idea was for cxbladder to provide the revenue to expand the market into asia and bring new products forward as well.
Just a few thoughts for early Sunday morning of Revelation Week

[see weed]

At least you didn't call us a bunch of JAFA'S Moosie.

My JAFA family has lived here for 170 years, so we know all the short cuts to avoid all the outer towners who clog up the north and southern motorways and from the airport, all following each other not knowing where they are going. ps takes me an average of 5 minutes to a lot of my work places, and that includes a toilet stop on the way. lol:D

[percy]

My JAFA family has lived here for 170 years, so we know all the short cuts to avoid all the outer towners who clog up the north and southern motorways and from the airport, all following each other not knowing where they are going. ps takes me an average of 5 minutes to a lot of my work places, and that includes a toilet stop on the way. lol:D

Would you be so kind to share your knowledge with me.?
I would like to know what route you would take from the Airport to Poland Road, Wairau Valley? Or just from the airport to the bridge?

[MAC]

Now the lab rat’s three month macro event dip seems broken we seem to be left in a spot where the SP would absurdly seem to price in zero sales and significant backwards progress in Pacific Edge’s roll out. I suspect this won’t actually be the case come Friday.

> The share price at the last HY14 report (first US sales) was $1.46 (+32%)

> A min valuation for US Cxbladder sales only is around $1.70 (+42%)

> Pacific Edge is well off its February highs of $1.76 (+44%)

I would suggest that Pacific Edge may well report some quite positive commentary actually this coming week, some progress on the two new Cxbladder products due to be launched, the ramping up of the US laboratory and sales team, and perhaps some advice on how the twelve month HMO negotiations are progressing a few months into them now.

I’m looking for some commentary on Medicare now that US insurers are finally submitting their 2015 rates for Obamacare by the end of this month, previously March. It is possible that this becomes a point of focus for commercial negotiations between Pacific Edge, Medicare and HMO’s as the forward twelve month pricing contracts for Cxbladder probably ought need to be reasonably consistent within the market place.

I would not be surprised to see this report mark the timely start of some of the larger funds buying in now as they may well see profitability on the near horizon, perhaps with an NZ50 component requirement also.

The focus of the Pacific Edge up to the end of the reporting period to 31 March has been on hiring and training staff, and on initiating access to the HMO’s and kicking off the twelve month negotiation processes as were previously advised to us.

It’s interesting timing about now, and regardless of what concurrent or coincident sales may have been forthcoming up to 31 March, PEB is an absolute fundamental BUY at these levels.

[Snow Leopard]

...It’s interesting timing about now, and regardless of what concurrent or coincident sales may have been forthcoming up to 31 March, PEB is an absolute fundamental BUY at these levels.

We know you like it, but absolutely fundamentally it is currently a highly speculative share with a very uncertain future:

At one extreme there is the risk that they will never achieve sufficient sales in an adequate time frame to remain solvent.

There is also the risk that they may actually do very well, even better than you predict.

But, and I say it again in a slightly different way, currently this is a very speculative share with a very diverse range of possible futures.

DYOR

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Copper]

I was going to answer the Mac post but thought I would pour a wine and have some dinner and then post a reply as I felt the post was so positive that something had to be said from an investor point of view.Coming back to the thread there are three posts that summarise my concerns so I will just say that they collectively sum up everything in my mind.Times have changed,the market can react viciously and it only takes a slip by the Company to unwind it all. The capitalisation I think is over 300 mill so it has something to justify....

[BlackPeter]

It’s interesting timing about now, and regardless of what concurrent or coincident sales may have been forthcoming up to 31 March, PEB is an absolute fundamental BUY at these levels.

Absolutely agree with the sentiments of the posts between MACs and mine (take caution:scared:). Just thought that it should be possible to get some sort of numerical value for the SP and tried with some old fashioned NPV-analysis.

So I thought - lets be really optimistic and assume that PEB makes it into the top 10 of biotech companies (world-wide). Picked 4 out of the top 10 (Google for top 10 BioTech companies, take the first 3 and number 10 if you want to use my numbers) and found that they have in average a 17.5% annual profit growth rate (not bad ...) and a 25% net margin (not bad, either).

Than I took the 100 Mio sales revenue PEB proposes for 2018 and applied from there the growth rate as stated above. No (or only minor) profit for the earlier years.

I request a return of 16 % (given, that it is still a high risk proposition - remember, the overwhelming majority of all biotech companies do not make any profit, but yes, PEB might be one of the winners - or not?).

Entering these data into a simple NPV function (try it yourself) returns a NPV of 70 cts per share. Slightly more, if you assume already some positive NPAT in 2017.

Question - is any of my above assumptions unreasonable - or why want people to pay so much more for the share?

Just give me some better numbers and I redo the calc.

Discl: Do not hold, but watch .... and as always, DYOR

[Minerbarejet]

Absolutely agree with the sentiments of the posts between MACs and mine (take caution:scared:). Just thought that it should be possible to get some sort of numerical value for the SP and tried with some old fashioned NPV-analysis.

So I thought - lets be really optimistic and assume that PEB makes it into the top 10 of biotech companies (world-wide). Picked 4 out of the top 10 (Google for top 10 BioTech companies, take the first 3 and number 10 if you want to use my numbers) and found that they have in average a 17.5% annual profit growth rate (not bad ...) and a 25% net margin (not bad, either).

Than I took the 100 Mio sales revenue PEB proposes for 2018 and applied from there the growth rate as stated above. No (or only minor) profit for the earlier years.

I request a return of 16 % (given, that it is still a high risk proposition - remember, the overwhelming majority of all biotech companies do not make any profit, but yes, PEB might be one of the winners - or not?).

Entering these data into a simple NPV function (try it yourself) returns a NPV of 70 cts per share. Slightly more, if you assume already some positive NPAT in 2017.

Question - is any of my above assumptions unreasonable - or why want people to pay so much more for the share?

Just give me some better numbers and I redo the calc.

Discl: Do not hold, but watch .... and as always, DYOR
We seem to have ended up in a parallel universe overnight.
Im lost, anyone else?

Noah fence
27% SC Maths 1958

[Whipmoney]

So I thought - lets be really optimistic and assume that PEB makes it into the top 10 of biotech companies (world-wide). Picked 4 out of the top 10 (Google for top 10 BioTech companies, take the first 3 and number 10 if you want to use my numbers) and found that they have in average a 17.5% annual profit growth rate (not bad ...) and a 25% net margin (not bad, either).

Than I took the 100 Mio sales revenue PEB proposes for 2018 and applied from there the growth rate as stated above. No (or only minor) profit for the earlier years.

I request a return of 16 % (given, that it is still a high risk proposition - remember, the overwhelming majority of all biotech companies do not make any profit, but yes, PEB might be one of the winners - or not?).

Entering these data into a simple NPV function (try it yourself) returns a NPV of 70 cts per share. Slightly more, if you assume already some positive NPAT in 2017.

Question - is any of my above assumptions unreasonable -


Yes your 16% required return on equity (i'm assuming there is no debt in the capital structure) is completely unreasonable relative to the market.

If you want to build some conservatism in the equation then you should de-risk it via your growth/cash-flow assumptions and NOT by increasing the hurdle rate.

Aside from that how'd you get FCFE? Whats your terminal growth rate?

[winner69]

Now you done it Blackpeter ... upsetting the masses

Cant be right .... oh no 70 cents is far too low

Lets have another debate about discount rates and all the inputs into a FCFE or whether 'risk' should be handled through discount rate or fiddling growth rates.

[winner69]

Is Friday a definite date for prelim or just a guess because PEB always leave it to the last possible date to report

I don't like companies leaving things this long ... not much to count up is there.

Usually the laggards are the losers

[robbo24]

Is Friday a definite date for prelim or just a guess because PEB always leave it to the last possible date to report

I don't like companies leaving things this long ... not much to count up is there.

Usually the laggards are the losers

You'll like their latest announcement today then.

[robbo24]

You'll like their latest announcement today then.
Pacific Edge signs Cxbladder agreement with MultiPlan

25 May 2014

Pacific Edge signs Cxbladder agreement with national provider network MultiPlan in the US

Pacific Edge announced today that it has entered into a contractual agreement with MultiPlan, Inc. for diagnostics laboratory testing. The agreement includes Pacific Edge’s participation in the MultiPlan, PHCS and PHCS Savility Networks.*
The agreement is the fourth signed with national provider networks by Pacific Edge since October 2013 and is another step in the Company’s commercial roll-out of Cxbladder in the United States, the world’s largest healthcare market. The agreement with MultiPlan in addition to the agreements with FedMed, Americas Choice Provider Network, and Stratose makes Cxbladder available to a significant proportion of US residents.

Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David Darling says national and regional provider networks are a key component in the commercial fabric ensuring that healthcare providers and technology suppliers are paid by healthcare payers for treatment provided to patients.

“Our participation in these networks will give a large number of Americans access to Cxbladder and its positive benefits as a quick, cost effective, non-invasive and highly accurate cancer detection test that is particularly appealing to US healthcare professionals, patients, and insurers.”*
Pacific Edge’s agreement with MultiPlan will give MultiPlan’s participating providers and its clients’ members access to Cxbladder. Approximately 900,000 providers participate in MultiPlan’s provider networks and an estimated 68 million consumers have access to one or more of these networks.*
Pacific Edge through its wholly owned subsidiary Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA (PEDUSA) has launched Cxbladder in the US and is processing samples collected using its proprietary Urine Sampling System at its custom built, CAP accredited laboratory in Hershey, Pennsylvania.

“Our sales and marketing teams are now focussed on the urologists and clinicians who are treating the largest number of bladder cancer patients to ensure they fully understand the value and benefits that Cxbladder provides to them and their patients” says Jackie Walker, Chief Executive Officer of PEDUSA.

“In addition we are advancing relationships with large commercial payers and the Centre for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which provides healthcare insurance for 100 million people or nearly a third of the American population. Progress is being made with key customer segments including Integrated Healthcare Systems, the Veterans Administration (VA), and Large Urology Groups (LUGS), who are the point of contact for many patients presenting with haematuria (blood in the urine) which is an early indicator of possible bladder cancer.”

More than one million Americans a year undergo medical investigation for potential bladder cancer at an estimated cost in excess of US$1 billion. Bladder cancer is one of the most expensive cancers to treat. The very high recurrence rate of this disease, requiring some patients to receive expensive monitoring for the rest of their lives, causes bladder cancer to have the highest total medical costs of any cancer from detection to death. In the US, the total medical cost approaches US$220,000 per patient.

[Whipmoney]

Now you done it Blackpeter ... upsetting the masses

Cant be right .... oh no 70 cents is far too low

Lets have another debate about discount rates and all the inputs into a FCFE or whether 'risk' should be handled through discount rate or fiddling growth rates.

Lol I'm far from upset... I was just giving him feedback on his assumptions like he requested.

As somebody else had mentioned this thread has an amazing psychology dynamic going on (ie. some very polarised views which ebb and flow with the share-price / market confidence).

At one end of the spectrum you have MAC and Hancocks who are very bullish (on the company's long-term prospects at least) and then you have detractors at the other end.

[Whipmoney]

Now you done it Blackpeter ... upsetting the masses

I don't like companies leaving things this long ... not much to count up is there.

Usually the laggards are the losers

Are you upset given that you missed one of their key announcements?

"Pacific Edge’s agreement with MultiPlan will give MultiPlan’s participating providers and its clients’ members access to Cxbladder. Approximately 900,000 providers participate in MultiPlan’s provider networks and an estimated 68 million consumers have access to one or more of these networks."

"Progress is being made with key customer segments including Integrated Healthcare Systems, the Veterans Administration (VA), and Large Urology Groups (LUGS), who are the point of contact for many patients presenting with haematuria (blood in the urine) which is an early indicator of possible bladder cancer.”

[Santiago]

Up until yesterday I was beginning to think these guys were a pipe dream, now I'm back thinking maybe they're onto something. My take on them fluctuates as much as their SP. All I am reasonably certain of is that the f/y numbers will be lower than expected, but I don't think this past year was the one where they would have started making sales regardless of the quality of the product. We'll have to wait another 12 months at least, I reckon, before there's any clarity on their longer term success. The one upside of that is that this thread will remain a source of entertainment for some time yet...

[Xerof]

progress : forward or onward movement towards a destination

keep calm and look forward to reporting of progress this week

[Slam dunk]

Another new piece of information (at least I haven't seen it before) is that the Hershey lab now has CAP accreditation (different to CLIA accreditation). From my quick look online CAP seems to be the gold standard - a higher standard than CLIA. It sounds like its valuable from a marketing perspective (and possibly from a performance perspective as peers offer suggestions for improvement) and that it might be an intentional step to help get across the line with CMS. Have a read of this guy's LinkedIn status for a discussion from people working in this area on the different types of accreditation. http://www.linkedin.com/groups/CLIA-vs-CAP-1826389.S.166019066 Well done to the team at PEB!!!

[BlackPeter]

Black Peter - your analysis appears flawed for so many reasons. Will try to come back with a fuller reply soon. Some obvious ones include (i) benchmarking a company at the very bottom of its uptake curve with others whose products must be near saturation. Indeed, once PEB gets going, its YOY profit growth will be way more than 17% or whatever you used. In other words, your sample of companies was not controlled for product and company life stage, which makes them very poor for extrapolation.

I'll leave others to start filling in some of the other graphs.

Just tried to get some sort of feeling for "Best Case". Always keen to learn . What parameters would you use for ongoing growth ?

[Xerof]

Another new piece of information (at least I haven't seen it before) is that the Hershey lab now has CAP accreditation (different to CLIA accreditation). From my quick look online CAP seems to be the gold standard - a higher standard than CLIA. It sounds like its valuable from a marketing perspective (and possibly from a performance perspective as peers offer suggestions for improvement) and that it might be an intentional step to help get across the line with CMS. Have a read of this guy's LinkedIn status for a discussion from people working in this area on the different types of accreditation. http://www.linkedin.com/groups/CLIA-vs-CAP-1826389.S.166019066 Well done to the team at PEB!!!

first announced as an aside in the 2May announcement. No fanfare, simply progress

great spotting slam

[Slam dunk]

first announced as an aside in the 2May announcement. No fanfare, simply progress

great spotting slam

College of American Pathologists (CAP) is a CMS approved accreditation organisation. https://www.cms.gov/Regulations-and-Guidance/Legislation/CLIA/downloads/HowObtainCLIACertificate.pdf

[Minerbarejet]

:)
Up until yesterday I was beginning to think these guys were a pipe dream, now I'm back thinking maybe they're onto something. My take on them fluctuates as much as their SP. All I am reasonably certain of is that the f/y numbers will be lower than expected, but I don't think this past year was the one where they would have started making sales regardless of the quality of the product. We'll have to wait another 12 months at least, I reckon, before there's any clarity on their longer term success. The one upside of that is that this thread will remain a source of entertainment for some time yet...think the source of entertainment it is about to shift to the depth table.

[robbo24]

Watching for a bull trap unless buyer depth really picks up this week...

Spoken like a true trader who didn't buy sub $1.

[blocker3]

Spoken like a true trader who didn't buy sub $1.

Me Robbo,as I am stuck with PEB at a higher price.A good bounce this morning.Will history repeat itself and there will be another anouncement tomorrow? Cheers

[Balance]

PEB will be reporting this week or latest, next week.

Not expecting any big numbers but I expect commentary to be extremely bullish for the sp.

[Dentie]

I'm very happy with my investments elsewhere. Just a quick reminder to all getting on the emotional train here that the goalposts are still shifted well away from where they used to be. Seems to be fortuitous announcement if someone large wanted to exit before numbers are announced eh?

Not touching until I see some numbers. Show me the money PEB! :)

Or, put another way, someone with big pockets purchased .......

[blocker3]

WOW this bounce is going flat fast....

Day traders are out already....Watch for the rebound .

[psychic]

So it was Salt buying the 1.3m the other day
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/250870

[Whipmoney]

WOW this bounce is going flat fast....

Day traders are out already....Watch for the rebound .

Lol I love it how everybody sweats the small stuff yet misses the woods for the trees.

Even if today's announcement results in a neglible price movement, it IS confirmation that the company is further down the track in their commercialisation process.

It is not the announcement itself that matters but the continuation and success of their roll-out strategy.

Think long term.. and stop sweating intra-day rises/falls, day traders, bull-traps, sell-downs from big holders etc.. because there's a good chance those people will be proven wrong in the long-game.

[jonu]

Well that happened faster than I thought.

Buyer beware!!!

I take that as a contrarian buy signal:p I'm in @ 104. Glad I didn't jump at open though.

[MAC]

Seems the twelve month timeframe allowed for bringing the big boys on board is indeed advancing. Might satisfy some who may had perceived a news vacuum too.

Looking forward to some more detail on Friday.

“In addition we are advancing relationships with large commercial payers and the Centre for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which provides healthcare insurance for 100 million people or nearly a third of the American population. Progress is being made with key customer segments including Integrated Healthcare Systems, the Veterans Administration (VA), and Large Urology Groups (LUGS), who are the point of contact for many patients presenting with haematuria (blood in the urine) which is an early indicator of possible bladder cancer.”

[blocker3]

Lol I love it how everybody sweats the small stuff yet misses the woods for the trees.

Even if today's announcement results in a neglible price movement, it IS confirmation that the company is further down the track in their commercialisation process.

It is not the announcement itself that matters but the continuation and success of their roll-out strategy.

Think long term.. and stop sweating intra-day rises/falls, day traders, bull-traps, sell-downs from big holders etc.. because there's a good chance those people will be proven wrong in the long-game.


I am definitely long term Whipmoney.no problems there.Still holding and no trades from me this morning.Cheers

[Whipmoney]

Seems the twelve month timeframe allowed for bringing the big boys on board is indeed advancing. Might satisfy some who may had perceived a news vacuum too.

Looking forward to some more detail on Friday.

“In addition we are advancing relationships with large commercial payers and the Centre for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which provides healthcare insurance for 100 million people or nearly a third of the American population. Progress is being made with key customer segments including Integrated Healthcare Systems, the Veterans Administration (VA), and Large Urology Groups (LUGS), who are the point of contact for many patients presenting with haematuria (blood in the urine) which is an early indicator of possible bladder cancer.”

Yeah I saw that too and that was actually the most interesting piece in today's announcement, the CMS progress.

I think we're in for one hell of a week:)

[Balance]

So it was Salt buying the 1.3m the other day
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/250870

An institutional investor like Salt does not invest until such time as they do due diligence and get seriously comfortable with a company.

The fact that they are building up a stake ahead of the results announcement is very positive.

Meanwhile, chill out and think cool watermelons.

[silu]

at risk of being bagged by the PEB bulls but I was worried that the company would produce this sort of mild positive news plus rhetoric shortly before the 6 monthly.
Sorry boy's and girl's this sort of behavior is a clear indication that the company believe's the market will be disappointed with the 6 monthly.

I'm in the same boat as you. Can't see anything that would want me to hold this. But for the holders I hope my opinion turns about to be wrong.

[Minerbarejet]

at risk of being bagged by the PEB bulls but I was worried that the company would produce this sort of mild positive news plus rhetoric shortly before the 6 monthly.
Sorry boy's and girl's this sort of behavior is a clear indication that the company believe's the market will be disappointed with the 6 monthly.I'm going to frame that
Cheers
Miner

[Toasty]

at risk of being bagged by the PEB bulls but I was worried that the company would produce this sort of mild positive news plus rhetoric shortly before the 6 monthly.
Sorry boy's and girl's this sort of behavior is a clear indication that the company believe's the market will be disappointed with the 6 monthly.

No bagging here but wouldn't you save this sort of news until after the sales results. This would then provide a bit of positive news that the process is still continuing despite the disappointing result. All hypothetical....

[Longhaul]

No bagging here but wouldn't you save this sort of news until after the sales results. This would then provide a bit of positive news that the process is still continuing despite the disappointing result. All hypothetical....

Aren't listed companies required to release information that may have a material affect on the shareprice as soon as they know about it? To do anything otherwise would be market manipulation would it not?

[Whipmoney]

at risk of being bagged by the PEB bulls but I was worried that the company would produce this sort of mild positive news plus rhetoric shortly before the 6 monthly.
Sorry boy's and girl's this sort of behavior is a clear indication that the company believe's the market will be disappointed with the 6 monthly.

Given that this agreement is roughly as significant as the previous three combined I don't see how it could not be considered material under the Continuous Disclosure rules 10.1.1.

Interesting to note that the announcement was actually dated yesterday. So possibly it was signed on Friday or over the weekend?

[Dentie]

at risk of being bagged by the PEB bulls but I was worried that the company would produce this sort of mild positive news plus rhetoric shortly before the 6 monthly.
Sorry boy's and girl's this sort of behavior is a clear indication that the company believe's the market will be disappointed with the 6 monthly.

Are you suggesting PEB executives have had this signed off long before now and have been delaying its announcement until this week - leading up to their sales reporting? If so, I think that is a serious suggestion Snapiti ... some might even say scurrilous or mischievous - especially if your suggestion is wrong. If your suggestion is correct, then it would be market manipulation ...surely.

I've emailed the company for clarity.

Sorry, missed Longhaul's post ...didn't mean to duplicate.

[robbo24]

Aren't listed companies required to release information that may have a material affect on the shareprice as soon as they know about it? To do anything otherwise would be market manipulation would it not?

Precisely. Note the announcement is dated 25 May. They released as soon as practicable.

These unfounded, seemingly naive, allegations from snapti do little for his reputation as a reliable source of information. Not that I would surmise the level of his reputation to begin with...

[Goldstein]

at risk of being bagged by the PEB bulls but I was worried that the company would produce this sort of mild positive news plus rhetoric shortly before the 6 monthly.
Sorry boy's and girl's this sort of behavior is a clear indication that the company believe's the market will be disappointed with the 6 monthly.

That's a bit cynical Snapiti. The news is worthy of a market announcement.

The thing that has me suspicious is the timing of the Salt on-market buy, together with this announcement. But that's probably just me being cynical.

[Goldstein]

at risk of being bagged by the PEB bulls but I was worried that the company would produce this sort of mild positive news plus rhetoric shortly before the 6 monthly.
Sorry boy's and girl's this sort of behavior is a clear indication that the company believe's the market will be disappointed with the 6 monthly.

That's a bit cynical Snapiti. The news is worthy of a market announcement.

The thing that has me suspicious is the timing of the Salt on-market buy, together with this announcement. But that's probably just me being cynical.

[Toasty]

Aren't listed companies required to release information that may have a material affect on the shareprice as soon as they know about it? To do anything otherwise would be market manipulation would it not?

Good point. Luckily I don't currently run any listed NZX companies. I would be in trouble pretty quickly...

[robbo24]

history shows us it is a classic move from many companies that believe the coming results will disappoint the market that prior to that announcement they will put a positive spin on future prospects.
Or is it a coincidence that the company ha been very quiet for months and the week the 6 monthly is due out they suddenly have some positive news to speak of........ yeah right pass me another tui.
More of concern was the timely addition of positive rhetoric contained with this announcement.
I am afraid this is confirmation that PEB are playing the smoke and mirrors game.

I'm afraid this post is confirmation that the benefit of the doubt that you have something useful to add has expired.

[robbo24]

Like I have said it is the rhetoric that is added to this announcement that is most alarming.
Not long to go now and we shall see if snapiti is overly cynical or has a good handle on this company forthcoming results.
I am confident we are being played prior to a poor result.
frame this one to miner

This is called Confirmation Bias, whereby the person favours information that confirms his or her belief.

Even worse, the "information" being favoured is the half baked dream child of snapiti...

[Whipmoney]

Like I have said it is the rhetoric that is added to this announcement that is most alarming.
Not long to go now and we shall see if snapiti is overly cynical or has a good handle on this company forthcoming results.
I am confident we are being played prior to a poor result.
frame this one to miner

Well that's a bit of a strawman presupposition isn't it, because if the results are poor then you'll claim you were right when in reality today's announcement and the results are likely to be independent events (as opposed to conditional probabilities).

Furthermore, since you haven't exactly defined a "poor" result, then if the results are better than poor, i.e. mediocre, acceptable, reasonable or even good then you may still claim they are "poor" and in an attempt to confirm your bulls*t premise.

I no longer think your cynical snapiti.. I just think you're stupid.

[Minerbarejet]

The field of coverage has just doubled.
Is it reasonable to suggest that the sales figures in May, whatever they are, can be doubled at next report in Nov as a rough guideline plus whatever expotential advancements are made with the current providers?
Roughly 40% of the population is getting big and exceeds the 33% in CMS as well.
It sez: "is processing samples collected" in a " CAP (not CLIA) accredited lab."

Why cant we just sit down and take this for what it is; an announcement of further signups on a Monday morning, in pretty much the same format as the others, from the same person, and under the same conditions and guidelines of the NZX.
Stop trying to make a conspiracy out of it or Ill send in the "Illuminati":)





Just kidding

[Copper]

I don't like to say it but it's starting to sound a bit like the Snakk thread in its heyday.On a market note there is still that largish seller in the background who probably couldn't believe his luck when the two announcements came out...this morning...

[Balance]

can lead a horse to water but you cant make it drink.
My post have been fairly accurate about the company to date but a lot of people are only happy hearing what they want to be told.

I personally find any postings here which create debate and discussion, be it positive or negative, as positive as long as they aid the understanding and analysis of PEB (or any company).

I tend to agree with those who think that some of the posters here are far too optimistic about how quickly PEB's sales will take hold in the market - their expectations are too high.

By choosing to go alone (instead of JV with one of the established big pharma's with distribution), PEB will take longer to get there so the deals that they are announcing and the commentaries they are making are crucial to assessing their progress.

The results will be out soon enough and I know for a fact that there are several research reports being prepared by reputable broking firm which are waiting for the results to be finalized.

The analysts are certainly not expecting anywhere near the kind of sales numbers some of the traders and shareholders are expecting.

Likewise, the institutions are not expecting big numbers.

So what we are likely to see when the announcement comes out is the traders and those who are expecting big numbers bailing out, and institutions (with heads up from the brokers) buying.

We shall see!

Exciting times ahead!

[Copper]

[QUOTE=Balance;482466]I personally find any postings here which create debate and discussion, be it positive or negative, as positive as long as they aid the understanding and analysis of PEB (or any company).

I tend to agree with those who think that some of the posters here are far too optimistic about how quickly PEB's sales will take hold in the market - their expectations are too high.

By choosing to go alone (instead of JV with one of the established big pharma's with distribution), PEB will take longer to get there so the deals that they are announcing and the commentaries they are making are crucial to assessing their progress.

The results will be out soon enough and I know for a fact that there are several research reports being prepared by reputable broking firm which are waiting for the results to be finalized.

The analysts are certainly not expecting anywhere near the kind of sales numbers some of the traders and shareholders are expecting.

Likewise, the institutions are not expecting big numbers.

So what we are likely to see when the announcement comes out is the traders and those who are expecting big numbers bailing out, and institutions (with heads up from the brokers) buying.

We shall see!

Exciting times ahead![/QUOTE

A good post Balance.Very accurate in my opinion.....I hope that quietens things down till the announcement cos nothing else can be said to contradict your lot. Cheers...

[Goldstein]

Like I have said it is the rhetoric that is added to this announcement that is most alarming.
Not long to go now and we shall see if snapiti is overly cynical or has a good handle on this company forthcoming results.
I am confident we are being played prior to a poor result.
frame this one to miner

It looks to me like their rhetoric is about the same as usual, which is to say slightly on the hyped-up side.

Regardless of the coming sales figures, it won't prove your assumption one way or the other.

Sure it's a speculative stock. But I think you're drawing a rather long bow to say that the announcement is a harbinger of doom.

[Balance]

A good post Balance.Very accurate in my opinion.....I hope that quietens things down till the announcement cos nothing else can be said to contradict your lot. Cheers...

Remember these quotes?

"In the the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine."

"Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell."

"Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it."

Many posters here are guilty of breaking the three quotes above?

[Schrodinger]

So $0.25 per share is more realistic?

[Balance]

Balance , it's one thing to provoke debate & discussion, it's another to imply a company has deliberately withheld material information. I agree the former is positive, I fail to see how the latter adds anything to the thread.

To me it tells more about the poster than the stock.

I find it pointless getting worked up about comments which are not based on factual interpretations - under continuous disclosure regime, listed companies must disclose when there are material information and/or developments.

If you want to see posters getting worked up over factual interpretations, go over to NZOG thread. Good laugh there of observing posters attempting to say blue is black!

[winner69]

Mind you the 'rhetoric' isn't quite as good as this from another company at the same stage of development a few years ago.

The Chairman speaking at a ASM


By way of background I will read to you a couple of paragraphs from a
comprehensive article in the April 28th issue of the Economist this year
entitled "When everything connects" an article I thoroughly recommend.

The opening paragraphs read;
"The wireless was once a big wood-panelled machine glowing faintly in the corner of the living room. Today's wireless device is the sleek mobile phone nestling in your pocket. In coming years wireless will vanish from view, as communications chips are embedded in a host of everyday objects. Such chips, and networks that link then together, could yet prove to be the most potent wireless of them all.

Just as microprocessors have been built into everything in the past decades, so wireless communications will become part of objects big or small. The possibilities are legion. Gizmos and gadgets will talk to other devices-and be serviced and upgraded from afar. Sensors on buildings and bridges will run them efficiently and ensure that they are safe. Wireless systems on farmland will measure temperature and humidity and control irrigation systems. Tags will certify the origins and distribution of food and medicines. Tiny chips on or in people's bodies will send vital signs to clinics to help keep them healthy."

The closing paragraph reads;
"What is different about new wireless communications is that people will barely notice them. Machines will talk to machines without human intervention. But humans will nevertheless be laying the foundation of a new infrastructure which, like the electrical power grid, will become a platform for subsequent innovation. There is no saying how it will be used other than that it will surprise us."

This "wirelessness" is what gives your Directors considerable confidence about the opportunities for growth that our technologies and energies can harvest for the future. And as the economist points out many of the applications that will use our products are as yet unknown. Our belief is that our creations based on quartz will remain at the centre of all this growth and change.


And they went on to zillions of little gizmos

[Whipmoney]

I was not trying to imply the company is deliberately withholding materiel information.
I am implying that management have a hand in when these sorts of deals are finalized.
Quite different.
You are right they have little control, due to disclosure law's, when they inform the market.

So what exactly is that you are saying then? That you think they deliberately withheld/delayed this announcement so they could post it closer to the time of the announcement just bolster a perceived weakness in their stock price following the release of their sales data?

Because conversely that would also imply that they deliberately created a vaccuum of information and stood by whilst their market cap lost tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars in value.

I think you need to re-think your argument..

[winner69]

Why would the Economist reprint this 7 years after it was first published?

Just an example of company rhetoric of a yeas ago. Rhetoric that gave the punters the warm fuzzies and pushed the price up.

Wasn't PEB off course

[robbo24]

Snapiti, when I woke up I noticed my shoe was upside down on my bedroom floor.

Then it started to rain.

I think the fact my shoe was upside down caused the rain because I noticed it. I'll test again tomorrow.

The analogy here is this: if the SP drops then you will claim some whacked out idiosyncratic reasoning as to why it happened.

At the moment your reasoning is... Criminal non disclosure and artificial rhetoric... Let's see what you move on to tomorrow.

I'll be leaving my shoe upside down and let you know if it rains.

[Bobcat.]

The field of coverage has just doubled.
Is it reasonable to suggest that the sales figures in May, whatever they are, can be doubled at next report in Nov as a rough guideline plus whatever expotential advancements are made with the current providers?:)


Agreed, hence my strategy is three fold:

a) If poor result - wait for sell down then buy on the recovery/upswing, holding through to November;
b) If mediocre result - hold what I have and perhaps buy more later;
c) If good result (or better) - immediately buy more.

BC

[winner69]

Robbo

So your shoe knew it was going to rain so it ended up upside down hoping your feet would not get wet when you put it on. A very thoughtful shoe

The only time my cat comes home (except when its dinner time) is when it's about to rain I'll check tomorrow morning and let you know if he is in.

[robbo24]

The sun came out just after I posted my shoes message.

I have to reconsider my processes now.

[JimHickey]

Is this Snapiti guy serious?
His logic is...... wow.

[Snow Leopard]

...Merely pointing out that the company has a hand in the timing of the conclusion to negotiations.
Ring, ring...
Ring, ring...

DD: David Darling
JW: Jackie here and don't call be Darling! OK we have got MultiPlan all ready to sign up, we are doing it tomorrow.
DD: No, not tomorrow, stall them.
JW: What?
DD: We need to push some good news just before we put out the full year and have to admit that you guys have not actually sold anything despite you saying it was as easy as peeing into a bucket. So stall them.
JW: How?
DD: I do not know your the sales people you must be able to come up with some good bull****, you usually do. Just delay it till the 25th or else.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: The above is totally fictitious.

[Tsuba]

one thing is for sure there will be a few on this thread who got sucked into the RAK rhetoric.... but of course this time it different.

Boy are you a happy chappy. But at least you have instigated some entertainment today.

[Santiago]

It'll be like this for at least a year yet too

[robbo24]

*DD looks the Multiplan exec in the eye*

"I've got to hold off a little longer," DD said to himself.

"Sign here please David, we need your signature so we can provide Cxbladder to our clients." said the exec, encouragingly.

"My hand is really sore... "
"I've forgotten my signature..."
"Hang on I need to take a dump..."

Go on Snapti, choose DDs next step in the CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE TO DELAY INFORMATION COMING TO THE MARKET.

[Whipmoney]

one thing is for sure there will be a few on this thread who got sucked into the RAK rhetoric.... but of course this time it different.

Personally I find the PEB rhetoric quite dry and far too quantitative / factual... I actually wish they'd come out with something more fun and fluffy.

[Balance]

I will say again I am most certainly not accusing the company of non disclosure.
Merely pointing out that the company has a hand in the timing of the conclusion to negotiations.

Personally, I would announce today's deal with the results due this week or next - more impact.

Why announce it before the results if the company can 'control' the timing?

[Harvey Specter]

Ring, ring...
Ring, ring...

DD: David Darling
JW: Jackie here and don't call be Darling! OK we have got MultiPlan all ready to sign up, we are doing it tomorrow.
DD: No, not tomorrow, stall them.
JW: What?
DD: We need to push some good news just before we put out the full year and have to admit that you guys have not actually sold anything despite you saying it was as easy as peeing into a bucket. So stall them.
JW: How?
DD: I do not know your the sales people you must be able to come up with some good bull****, you usually do. Just delay it till the 25th or else.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: The above is totally fictitious.

Alternatively:

ring ring ...

DD: Darling
JW: I am not your darling, stop saying that.
DD: Sorry. any update on this contract, we need it signed like 2 weeks ago. Have you seen our shareprice has dropped below a $1
JW: Its taking a bit longer than expected. They said they had to take a dump??? - when they came back, they questioned if we do a bowel test as well as there as a bit of blood. Anyway, it should be signed by Friday COB.
DD: COB NZ or US time, we need to get this to the NZX asap.
JW: US unfortunately.
DD: OK. I will wait at my desk till it is done, even if I have to submit it on a Sunday.

[Xerof]

Agree Balance, but to be perfectly frank, the team at PEB don't give a "dump" about the share price. They have plenty of things to do in their, so far 12, but exciting next 4 or 5 year plan, than to fret about the fluctuations in market cap.

[okay]

Ring, ring...
Ring, ring...

DD: David Darling
JW: Jackie here and don't call be Darling! OK we have got MultiPlan all ready to sign up, we are doing it tomorrow.
DD: No, not tomorrow, stall them.
JW: What?
DD: We need to push some good news just before we put out the full year and have to admit that you guys have not actually sold anything despite you saying it was as easy as peeing into a bucket. So stall them.
JW: How?
DD: I do not know your the sales people you must be able to come up with some good bull****, you usually do. Just delay it till the 25th or else.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: The above is totally fictitious.

Following on from PT.. a conference call is looming..

DD: Hang on a sec Jackie I've got Swan on the other line, will put it to conference mode.. burr.. burr..
JW: Oh.. ok
DD: Hi Swannie, just talking sales mate, now we want you to stay the f**k away from the ODT this week.
DD: I'm still getting bl**dy emails daily from sharetrader members wondering if the 10's of thousands of tests this year will be in the FY14 announcement..
CS: So what do you want me to say then if I'm asked.
DD: Keep it general mate, you know the 100m in 5 years, it works for me.

Disc: The above is still totally ridiculously fictitious

[Snow Leopard]

There say that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery (though I am still accepting good reputation).

Anyway i would like to thank my parents, fellow posters, Vince for his wonderful administration...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

Take a dump in the rain while wearing upside down shoes?

That's all today seemed to accomplish!



Derek Handley has the answer in his book.

Something to do with snakes hating the rain on a sunny day?

:D

[Dentie]

Aaaaaaaaand, we're back to a buck...

Bloody traders playing around ... I wonder if Salt Funds Management (or other big purchaser) quietly frittered away their mornings purchase