PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd [Archive] - Page 29

winner69

26-05-2014, 05:09 PM

Just reading through the last few pages of navel gazing about the timing of today's announcement - all utterly stupid speculation with no foundation whatsoever - some people need to take the dog for a walk.

Taken the dog for a run on the beach. He really enjoyed it though it was freezing cold and it starting raining. The cat wasn't home when we left so I assumed no rain .... the bugger was home curled up in his basket when we did get back

What would have Popper made of PEB 'framing' their future success by using phrases like nearly a third of the American population.?

Wasn't Mr Popper a believer of falsification ......ie easier to disprove something by observation, like seeing a black swan shows the general statement 'all swans are white' is false

robbo24

26-05-2014, 05:11 PM

thanks I love to stir up the bulls on this thread, I learnt how to do this from Balance's post on the SNK thread.
funny stuff and will continue tonight when a few more bulls start reading this thread when they get home from work.:D

So much wrong with this...

1) Snapiti comparison to Balance
2) SNK comparison to PEB
3) Proposition that only bulls turned on snapiti

Balance

26-05-2014, 05:12 PM

Handleys book told me to buy one fish two fish red fish blue fish, then rub Snake Oil on a howling hound while pogo sticking around DD...

Derek txt me to say he is extremely disappointed you read his book cover to cover, quoted from it but forgot his most important insight - you gotta feed them ducks!

robbo24

26-05-2014, 05:43 PM

closed down after a well overdue positive announcement.
Me thinks the smart money has seen the announcement for what it was.
Anyone want to go fishing the red herrings are plentiful at the moment.
Looks like the market wants to see good sales traction and nothing else. gulp!!!!!

Wait... So was it market manipulation, non disclosure or now, as you say, absence of sales traction?

The plot thickens...

Harvey Specter

26-05-2014, 05:50 PM

Looks like the market wants to see good sales traction and nothing else. gulp!!!!!
My reading is that there is no point being able to sell to an addition 60m people if you can't sell to the first 60m. So we await details on sales to the first 60m.

However, I don't see anything manipulative in the timing of the announcement. They signed a detail so disclosed. Regarding the progress statement, they were dammed either way. If they put nothing in, you would still be claiming the sky is falling.

Joshuatree

26-05-2014, 05:59 PM

Today was a good day to derisk my port some more so after selling some in the high $1.60's sold most of the rest @$1.03. Risk off time for me atm. On the fence i go waiting for Darling to stroll past.

Copper

26-05-2014, 06:50 PM

nope, traders killed today, opened at its high, just look at them bailing on the close.

still the one seller by the looks, and he spooked a few into selling the close as well, without his order for 121k odd at 99 being touched. Bully.

In my opinion the only real post that is related to the share price.Same seller is in the background but if it's only 121k to go then we may see some lessening of the selling pressure.I still think there may be more.Salt buying $1.3 mill is just Westpac etc adding opportunistically to a large shareholding bought over time.IMHO. Realistically they were buying at 50 and 100 and 150 in the past so this lot is just adding spending to an increasing cash input from savers in their funds.I would love Balance's view on Salt.It looks like a blast from the past.An interesting mix of fund managers,investment bankers,brokers,accountantst researchers etc representing every aspect from the past.They may just be the goods.It's just my view on first looking at their website.cheers.
H

MAC

26-05-2014, 06:59 PM

It is worth a timely reflection;

http://www.phcssavility.com/aboutus/aboutmultiplan.cfm

Network providers like Multiplan administer negotiated bulk price contracts for multiple groups of insurers by contracting many health sector providers just like Pacific Edge.

In the case of the Multiplan network there are 600,000 providers just like Pacific edge, but more importantly for Pacific Edge, Multiplan “work with over 2,000 mid-sized and large insurers, third-party administrators, HMOs, self-funded plans and other entities that pay claims on behalf of health plans”.

That’s not to say that these 2,000 insurers and HMO’s will immediately start using Cxbladder, but what it does do is provide them with a consistent contracted price that represents market value, and, they may now start to draw on this price as and when they may choose to do so.

One would imagine that securing a fixed price is a commercial pre-requisite for each insurer prior to allowing their internal medical staff to consider the medical and clinical Cxbladder proposition and benefits.

So, from an insurers perspective, they now have a fixed price, and Pacific Edge we may be sure, will do doubt be contacting all 2,000 insurers to convey the Cxbladder clinical value proposition which offers a one third reduction in work up costs for each patient and also improved clinical diagnosis, triage and prognosis options and outcomes.

Go you Pacific Edge sales folk, you have 2,000 more approaches to make as of today.

It is the rate of take up by these 2,000 insurers, plus a similar number again from FedMed, ACPN and Stratose, that will determine the forward revenue curve for PEB.

Pacific Edge won’t announce insurer sign up’s as there may be potentially thousands over time, we will have to wait for Friday's report to see how many are on board.

My feel is that there were probably a lot more insurers signed up after 31 March than prior to, noting that the period from first sales in October through to the end of the reporting period on 31 March included both the Xmas and thanks giving holiday disruptions. Plus, there will be an assessment period of a several months for each of the FedMed asociated insurers commencing from October last year.

I’d quite like to know on Friday how many insurers Pacific Edge presently have on the books right now, rather than to 31 March, but they may not be able to include such information, I’m not sure ?

robbo24

26-05-2014, 07:04 PM

market spoke today..... can you hear it with your head in the sand.
For the third time today there was no non disclosure that is illegal in this country.
You like to criticize other's but regularly fail to add your own idea's.

I can spell my "idea's" as words, though.

How many shares were traded below opening? Bugger all at end of day.

Window dressing.

Copper

26-05-2014, 07:17 PM

I can spell my "idea's" as words, though.

How many shares were traded below opening? Bugger all at end of day.

Window dressing.

Don't usually reply to a post like that but it's a bit grabbing at straws.IMHO.The turnover was average and it was all down.Just a usual day.......as for window dressing....get a grip...

winner69

26-05-2014, 07:36 PM

black knat - it is you, not me, who is comparing Rakon with PEB. I never made that comparison.

Snapiti made the comment that todays announcement was rather rhetorical. I posted that bit from Rakons Chairman as another great bit of company rhetoric, nothing else.

From crystals for billions of devices to potential tests for a third of the American population how about comparing an acquisition to something like 'In one stroke, the United States would double its size'. That was Richina's Yan of Richina. Another great example of company rhetoric -

Your New York-based Chairman, a great student of
American history, has likened the significance of RPL’s
acquisition of SLC to that of America’s Louisiana
Purchase. At the risk of sounding a little grand, I find
this analogy most fitting!

By a treaty signed in 1803, the United States purchased
from France the Louisiana Territory, more than 2 million
square kilometers of land extending from the Mississippi
River to the Rocky Mountains. Having changed French
geopolitical priorities at the time, Napoleon Bonaparte
offered to sell Louisiana instead of further expansion in
the Americas. Coincidentally, President Thomas
Jefferson had already sent James Monroe and Robert
Livingston to Paris to negotiate the purchase of a tract
of land on the lower Mississippi River or to at least
establish a guarantee of free navigation on the river.

Surprised and delighted by the French offer of the
whole territory, they immediately negotiated the treaty
and made the purchase, for US$15 million.

The Louisiana Purchase greatly benefited and changed
America forever. In one stroke, the United States would
double its size, own an enormous tract of land that
opened to settlement, and was assured free navigation
on the Mississippi River.

In our case, much more humble but just as important to
RPL shareholders, we first approached SLC in February
2004 seeking to purchase the land and buildings that
housed SRL’s tanneries.

We were very surprised but equally delighted when SLC told us that while the land we wanted was not for sale, SLC itself was.

This closely followed the decision by SLC’s parent, LIH, one of
Shanghai’s largest SOEs (which had 28 subsidiary
holding companies, including SLC, and had over 180,000
employees), to sell SLC as a whole. This decision by
LIH came about rather suddenly because the Beijing
central government, having recently decided to further
deepen its commitment to SOE reform, required
prompt action, and Shanghai as usual led the charge.

The rest, as we say, is history.

Maybe we should start a new thread to post these great bits of company rhetoric and leave these pages for more important matters

Promise - no more rhetoric from me on this thread.

winner69

26-05-2014, 08:23 PM

After watching the PEB shareprice and thread this week:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UWWLwtMLWCI&feature=youtu.be

Whats the video like moose .... I didn't get past the 2 minute ad with that chick showing off her portable gas fired hot shower

nextbigthing

26-05-2014, 08:39 PM

Wow. Nine pages today of intelligent debate today so far. Great stuff.

As is often said, please play the ball not the player people. It's great to have all suggestions, even if they're incorrect, they still provide good learning points for younger viewers. No need for insults.

[STMOD: no need indeed]

blocker3

26-05-2014, 08:40 PM

I hope tomorrow is a better day for posters on PEB,as what I have just read over the last few pages is mostly crap

Copper

26-05-2014, 08:50 PM

I hope tomorrow is a better day for posters on PEB,as what I have just read over the last few pages is mostly rubbish

Agree blocker.Was just replying to your post and notice you may have altered it. Liked the first version.. Cheers

blocker3

26-05-2014, 08:55 PM

Might have to extend that out to Friday there blocker. Until then, more upside down shoes and cat videos! :D

Not a good video that you have moosie.

Balance

26-05-2014, 08:57 PM

Best study of human and investor psychology today.

:D

Goldstein

26-05-2014, 09:20 PM

You know you can skip ads eh? Unless it was Scarlett Johanson showing off her portable gas fored hot shower I think I'd be watching the cat video ;)

Between reading today's PEB instalment and Moosie's cat video, there's 5 minutes of my life I aint getting back.

Wolf

26-05-2014, 10:01 PM

Looking at the trades for today i don't see any suspicious activity. Looks like a little bit changing hand with institutions but the majority of trades looks like retail investors. Possibly using the announcement to get out before the anticipated result. Drop from 1.02 very light volume as well.
Looking for a bounce back through $1 tomorrow as more people catch on. PEB been out of the spotlight for a while.
Looking forward to results hopefully friday :t_up:

But hell what would i know.

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/markets-and-research/companies//NZX/PEB#trades

winner69

27-05-2014, 08:06 AM

OMG... if you read the numbers on the white board behind Davids back very, very carefully... and do a few simple calculations ... looks like they will be reporting a huge number of tests on Thursday....!!

A very big number maybe

A subtle form of disclosure?

Might be an old photo though and these are 'planning' numbers

robbo24

27-05-2014, 08:22 AM

klid

27-05-2014, 08:25 AM

I still think "a lot more than 1000 tests" OK Snapiti. Interesting yesterday with selling into the news. Do you think the sellers agent just thought oh well I will just keep selling anyway despite this?

Whipmoney

27-05-2014, 08:57 AM

From the article: http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/303644/us-market-test-grows

"Pacific Edge is set to report its latest financial results on Thursday."

Schrodinger

27-05-2014, 09:00 AM

Whats the consensus here. They need several million dollars of revenue to reach the target of $100M by 2018.

Dentie

27-05-2014, 09:04 AM

Carpenterjoe

27-05-2014, 09:25 AM

I would prefer to know how many first year patients with cancer they treat, as we all know you can multiply this out to some large numbers. Eg 500 first year patients can lead to some 4000 tests by year five. Every new sale now is worth at least eight later on.

I'm Expecting sales of around 200 tests, I'm not to concerned about this result. This is a marathon effort, not a hundred meter dash.

Just my thoughts.

Minerbarejet

27-05-2014, 09:36 AM

Whats the consensus here. They need several million dollars of revenue to reach the target of $100M by 2018.Its only a target, mate. They have already said its a middle of the road estimate, could be more, could be less. Its not set in concrete that unless this is reached in five years then the company would be a failure. Failure to reach an ambitious target is not punishable by death, well, not in this country anyway.
They would be doing quite nicely to turn a profit of any sort in the next few years IMHO
Cheers
Miner

Harvey Specter

27-05-2014, 09:39 AM

From the article: http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/303644/us-market-test-grows

"Pacific Edge is set to report its latest financial results on Thursday."The ODT also said 10's of thousands of tests - can we trust them? ;)

Harvey Specter

27-05-2014, 09:41 AM

I'm Expecting sales of around 200 tests, I'm not to concerned about this result. This is a marathon effort, not a hundred meter dash.I hope to see a lot more than 200 tests undertaken. If they only received money for 200, I am fine with that.

Dentie

27-05-2014, 09:46 AM

I've often wondered how many posters have actually run a business on any level, let alone a publically listed company. There is a big difference from watching you tube video's and online seminars, reading books etc (ie - learning the theory) than actually living the experience. A BIG difference. And we all know theory "outcome" is different from practical "outcome".

fiasco

27-05-2014, 10:29 AM

Despite what happens, this is really exciting PEB are doing so well in my opinion.

Looking forward to hear how well CRC is progressing, and also their other proposed products in development i.e. gastric and endometrial.

MAC

27-05-2014, 10:30 AM

I think you may be at one end of the spectrum and Harbour Asset Management at the other, but someone will be correct, time will tell.

Although, Pacific Edge have told us a couple of times now that they expect to break even this year, circa 15,000 to 20,000 tests required to do so, probably at HY15 in November IMO maybe FY15 in March.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/269976/pacific-edge-100m-forecast

5864

Minerbarejet

27-05-2014, 02:09 PM

I'd like to see some of these yankee investors start jumping in and getting some positions.

I'm an unashamed positive "bull" on PEB - have been for years, love what they are doing, have no intention of selling and will happily wait for their eventual day in the sun.

My gut tells me they are currently undervalued but am unsure whether the current SP is based on the well publicised $100m in 5 years - discounted back to NPV, or solely on what people see it as at today.

Based on the wild fluctuations and consistent selling (even with positive news announcements), it appears a lot also are unsure of the "correct" value. Someone's going to be wrong.
The way it's been going an announcement of CMS signing will drive the share down to 90c and a pathetic result will send it up to 1.50. Every time you turn around there is another load at 1.00 and by the looks of it 1.10 is going be a bit tough or it was , its disappeared off my depth table.

Whipmoney

27-05-2014, 02:53 PM

The way it's been going an announcement of CMS signing will drive the share down to 90c and a pathetic result will send it up to 1.50. Every time you turn around there is another load at 1.00 and by the looks of it 1.10 is going be a bit tough or it was , its disappeared off my depth table.

I doubt it, but then again when you look back the market was completely irrational when the SP jumped from 70c to $1.60c back in October. Whilst it was great news and confirmation that the commercialisation process was well underway, it certainly didn't merit a 128%+ increase in market cap.

I think what we're seeing now is a retraction to normally (i.e. rationality kicking in) and the market (or at least traders) is now more aware that the stock was severely over-valued on hype and that these sorts of announcements shouldn't warrant significant increases to the market cap.

That being said, a positive Sales result on Thursday should hopefully a reasonable uptick however I don't think it will be in the magnitude of the previous spikes. Possibly $1.10 to $1.20 on good news and there will likely be a serious contraction if the news is poor (<200 sales).

Meister

27-05-2014, 03:40 PM

I concur absolutely; however, I’m expecting much better traction (urologist uptake) than that (as posted previously). Because I have a genuine expectation they have built on the ground work done before CLIA registration.

I know you already have a ton of stock Hancocks but with your great expectations for the company have you been taking advantage of these lower than before prices? If not, any plans to buy more on a positive announcement or do you have plenty? haha

MAC

27-05-2014, 03:41 PM

I'm quite comfortable with Hancock's assessment too, although 1,000 to 5,000 would be entirely a satisfactory range IMHO. But then, I don't disingenuously mis-quote folk like some do.

To estimate the number of tests EOY (31st March), I used existing documentation and published commentary from Pacific Edge Limited; and have given a lot of credit (possibly too much) for the ground work with the LUG’s (large urology practices) and AUA exhibitions done prior to the lab receiving CLIA registration in July 2013. Although, I do acknowledge there could be a hysteresis drag or lag in effect.

Calculation (maximum probable number 20,000) is based on adding urologists in the world’s largest bio-medical market each month from a start point in July of 250 (a couple of LUG’s); and a linear ramp up to a point at the end of March 2014, where just 3.5% of all American registered urologists are performing an average of ~5 tests per work week; or, only 1.0% of the total estimated test market (using Pacific Edge Limited figures of 1.825 Million).

Repeating my previous posts: (changed slightly for emphasis)

I’m hoping we have actually signed > 2 LUG’s now; I’m expecting > 5000 tests but really hoping for 16,000 – 20,000. (If it is < 5,000 I would be disappointed.)

1,000 - 2,000 is only mediocre.
2,000 - 5,000 is acceptable (but disappointing).
5,000 – >10,000 is quite Orsome.
16,000 – 20,000 is just bloody marvellous.

My estimate of test numbers is not a reflection on Pacific Edge Limited or the product Cxbladder; I’m a staunch believer in both. This is an issue that I will monitor closely as the uptake rate is the most important factor in the success of Cxbladder, and the 228,200 tests - $US100 Million target of which we are at 31st March, 8 months (13%) into a 60 month program to achieve.

Note: 228,200 (Capital Raising 2011) tests is 4,370 / per week; or, 874 per week-day; or, 110 per hour; or, 1.8 per minute !!!!

Why such aggressive monitoring? Because, if you recall, the agreement with Oryzon Genomics was signed in May 2011 and the text ‘and soon to be Spain & Portugal’ has been published 2 or 3 times each year since. Meaning, the information may be overly optimistic; OR, enthusiastic; OR, the time-line model flawed; OR, it may show that innovative technology in a ground breaking arena is very very difficult to model.

Anyway, exciting time and looking forward to the report in a couple of weeks.

Xerof

27-05-2014, 03:48 PM

hancocks, what do you make of the CAP registration? is it a prerequisite for CMS sign-up?

Black Knat, from my research of the register, we have seen one new entrant into top 50 in the past few weeks (with what I would call a 'knowledgeable' connection to the company) and Salt topping up to be now over the 5%. The #1 holding, which includes Salt, as well as most other institutions, has been where the selling in general has been coming from. To me this seems to be a re-balancing exercise, which has been on-going for months within that group, although we know Hujlich and Masfen interests have declared sales. This is not unexpected given their position as seed capitalists, well in the money, and not 'attached' to any investment.

The #1 holding has been relatively stable, so someone in that holding is also churning, at the expense of retail holders, who fret constantly about the perceived news vacuum, and get pushed into selling - a great example was the push of stops to 95c last week. Note carefully who took up that large parcel at 95c.

Stay calm and wait for Thursday's progress report on the multi-year journey.

Whipmoney

27-05-2014, 05:06 PM

We running out of 'big' sellers who are intent on exiting?

That would be great if it turns out to be a good result. The ascent will be like a hot knife through butter.

Xerof

27-05-2014, 05:15 PM

Still the same modus operandi....

I see two scenarios:

A genuine seller, using a broker with an ego, who likes to crush on the close to ensure it closes at the low of the day. He can then skite to his client that "gee, it was tough going, but once again I got you a great vwap today, just look where it closed.

or

it's an accumulator - read Michael Lewis's Flashboys for the sordid details

I suppose I could add in a third - more sellers than buyers

Schrodinger

27-05-2014, 05:16 PM

Possibly a $0.25 stock ($50M cap) in 6 months if sales evaporate. Should be an interesting watch

Xerof

27-05-2014, 05:19 PM

Possibly a $0.25 stock ($50M cap) in 6 months if sales evaporate. Should be an interesting watch
Possibly a $2.50 stock ($500M cap) in 16 months if sales crystallise. Should be an interesting watch

Mista_Trix

27-05-2014, 05:20 PM

... ... ... I suppose I could add in a third - more sellers than buyers

That one seems the weirdest though given the 'tell all' is only a matter of days away,
why wouldn't you wait to see how its doing..?!?!

klid

27-05-2014, 05:52 PM

Not very good at Maths were we Xerof...He multiplied 0.25/50m by 10 to get 2.50/500m. Seems good math to me; perhaps shroedinger provided some bad figures^

Xerof

27-05-2014, 05:58 PM

He multiplied 0.25/50m by 10 to get 2.50/500m. Seems good math to me; perhaps shroedinger provided some bad figures^
Correct on all four counts:eek2:

Copper

27-05-2014, 06:12 PM

That one seems the weirdest though given the 'tell all' is only a matter of days away,
why wouldn't you wait to see how its doing..?!?!

Cos u wanna git out be4 the plummet.Or in English,"I think it might down so better sell today"

winner69

27-05-2014, 07:25 PM

Total shares (undiluted): 318,615,921

X .25 = $79.6M
X .50 = $159.3M
X 1.00 = $318.6M
X 2.50 = $796.5M
X 3.14 = $1B

Better be a good result!!!

Very remiss of you moose - you left the important number out

X 1.70 = $541M

MAC

27-05-2014, 08:51 PM

Small potential small value, big potential big value.

A company that may very well achieve 100M in revenues in just five short years, possibly more IMO, is an extraordinary thing, not something often contemplated on the NZX.

Larger estimated forward revenues, allow for larger forward cashflows, allow for a larger NPV valuation and a larger market cap in assessing and pricing that forward potential.

Most FA’s reading your posts probably smile a little when you try to use P/S ratios to value a company like this and at this stage, but a DCF assessment will offer you a sensible result and a confident outcome if you have the patience to spend a few hours on one.

klid

27-05-2014, 11:14 PM

baller18

28-05-2014, 06:37 AM

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/business-breakdown--fonterra-–-how-low-will-they-go-213105714.html
This article states peb gained FDA approval???!!! The odt n Nz finance, what they up to???

Dentie

28-05-2014, 06:47 AM

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/business-breakdown--fonterra-–-how-low-will-they-go-213105714.html
This article states peb gained FDA approval???!!! The odt n Nz finance, what they up to???

That's interesting Baller ...first reference to FDA approval that I've seen. PEB, NZX .... don't seem to have reported that?

Dentie

28-05-2014, 07:09 AM

Minerbarejet

28-05-2014, 07:16 AM

Mind you, when you've got the NZ Herald writing this ...

"Pacific Edge fell 1 percent to 97 cents ahead of the security software company releasing its full-year earnings tomorrow".

...what do you expect??!!

Hahahaha - thats hilarious. Next they will be taking samples through the alarm system:)

Dentie

28-05-2014, 07:19 AM

Pacific Edge US Laboratory receives CLIA Registration - Presentation March 2013. page 2

1. Laboratory Developed Tests (LDTs) are tests developed, evaluated and validated in a single CLIA laboratory - because LDTs are not marketed to multiple laboratories and health care facilities, they do not require FDA approval.

2.The Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendment, CLIA, sets standards and issues certificates for clinical laboratory testing in the United States. It is administered by the US Centre for Medicare and Medicaid Services, CMS.

Also inadvertently answered Xerofs question about CAP registration.

Sorry Mr H, I wasn't clear enough. I knew FDA approval wasn't needed... I was just trying to note that if FDA approval had in fact been gained, it should have the effect of strengthening the perceived structure behind PEB in the US.

Dentie

28-05-2014, 08:29 AM

Mind you, when you've got the NZ Herald writing this ...

"Pacific Edge fell 1 percent to 97 cents ahead of the security software company releasing its full-year earnings tomorrow".

...what do you expect??!!

...maybe PEB is responsible for WYN's SP and vice versa.....should they be exchanged...?:t_up: he said ... pondering.

Minerbarejet

28-05-2014, 08:37 AM

...maybe PEB is responsible for WYN's SP and vice versa.....should they be exchanged...?:t_up: he said ... pondering.
Think you are onto something there, Dentie, although you may have the wrong one to exchange with. Try the next letter down in the alphabet.

Whipmoney

28-05-2014, 08:40 AM

Funny that number, because most high growth/high margin companies work on revenue multiples of around 5.5x forward earnings (pretty sure DIL is still hovering there, while Serko is listing at that price as well!). Wee bit ahead of ourselves eh? ;)

The US Biotech sector (where PEB is domiciled) averages 6.02x Price:Sales however I imagine this is highly weighted towards the very large players.

But based on this number: US$100m in sales x 6.02 = US$602m Market Cap = NZD$704,852,628 Market Cap.

Divide by 318,615,921 shares and you get a magical $2.21.

To answer your point about its current value well calculating that is an exercise of futility. We're essentially looking at a binary outcome stock (success or failure) so it will either head towards $2.21 or $0.

robbo24

28-05-2014, 08:42 AM

Westpac is a PEB SSH.

Good to see.

nextbigthing

28-05-2014, 09:03 AM

The US Biotech sector (where PEB is domiciled) averages 6.02x Price:Sales however I imagine this is highly weighted towards the very large players.

But based on this number: US$100m in sales x 6.02 = US$602m Market Cap = NZD$704,852,628 Market Cap.

Divide by 318,615,921 shares and you get a magical $2.21.

To answer your point about its current value well calculating that is an exercise of futility. We're essentially looking at a binary outcome stock (success or failure) so it will either head towards $2.21 or $0.

That's based on a single product but they have more in the pipeline. So $(2.21 x 3) - (minus a suitable discount for the stage the company is at) gives me.... $1.70 :D

hilskin

28-05-2014, 09:08 AM

Full Year Results to 31 March 2014
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/194529.pdf
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/194530.pdf

Whipmoney

28-05-2014, 09:09 AM

Results out.

Carpenterjoe

28-05-2014, 09:22 AM

I get 145k operating rev/350= 414 test

Whipmoney

28-05-2014, 09:22 AM

$500k revenue circa 1000 tests?

Yeah a pretty good result actually.

Whipmoney

28-05-2014, 09:29 AM

I get 145k operating rev/350= 414 test

1) Where do you get $145k from?

Trading Reveue is $523k and Other Revenue is $315k

2) Revenue is in NZD so have you denominated the test price in NZD accordingly?

Whipmoney

28-05-2014, 09:31 AM

well, well, well. Basically nailed the first year prediction.

Nice work. You could be wrong on the later years though :)

Here's a comparable company:

FY1 - 440
FY2 - 7,000
FY3 - 14,500
FY4 - 24,450
FY5 - 39,640

False Profit

28-05-2014, 09:35 AM

Watch the SP...Westpac are buying large.

Date on which substantial security holder(s) began to have substantial
holding:
Summary of substantial holding to which disclosure relates
Class of listed voting securities: ordinary share
Summary for: Westpac Banking Corporation (including the related bodies
corporate specified in the attached Annexure)

For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 16,645,424
(b) total in class: 318,615,921
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.22%
Details of relevant interests currently in substantial holding
Details for: Westpac Banking Corporation (including the related bodies
corporate specified in the attached Annexure)
Nature of relevant interest(s): Refer attached Annexure

Minerbarejet

28-05-2014, 09:36 AM

Nasdaq is up 62 points this morning. Looking good.:)

Whipmoney

28-05-2014, 09:44 AM

Well, only 170 tests in USA – golly. High cash burn, damn slow ramp up (urologist uptake). Disappointed and doubt the $US100 Million 5 year target is real. Will monitor future progress, not impressed at the moment.

Hancocks for someone who has spent so much time researching this company and its market.. well your conclusions are basically a joke.

1) US sales only started in July so they've only been pounding the pavement for a maximum of 10 months so far. In the commentary it outlines that their first US sales person was inducted in July and I imagine training took several weeks/months.
2) Doctors by their very nature are skeptical people and often it will take peer acceptance to get these sorts of technologies to take off (basically a snowball effect).
3) Refer to my comparable trajectory above which is from a much larger and well resourced company.
4) Presuming those Urologists who actually used the test were satisfied then PEB will generate repeat business from both their existing and new patients. Furthermore these Urologists will likely share the merits of the tests at their local conferences.

Overall I'm reasonably satisfied as my expectations were low. Commercialisation is well underway and if the market acts adversely then it will be a good opportunity to acquire more at a good price.

Dentie

28-05-2014, 09:47 AM

Well, only 170 tests in USA – golly. High cash burn, damn slow ramp up (urologist uptake). Disappointed and doubt the $US100 Million 5 year target is real. Will monitor future progress, not impressed at the moment.

Careful Mr H...you'll be accused of down ramping....

Sales is disappointing - agreed and not good news if you are a trader. But on the positive side, the balance sheet certainly isn't deteriorating and CS & DD do state they believe $100m target "continues to be readily attainable". As a long term holder... I am happy to hold. I think the yield PEB will give me over the next while will certainly outstrip what the banks will give me.

Whipmoney

28-05-2014, 09:48 AM

Personally I would be highly surprised if they crack 800 tests (based on comparable trajectories) however what I can't predict is how the market would react to say ~500 tests. I suspect the wider market would have a more favourable reaction to this number than say Hancocks would.

Obviously this means that if Hancocks is correct then we could see quite a decent jump in SP if they hit say 5k or 10k tests.

Well Newguy, Looks like I was spot on too.. ;)

russbus

28-05-2014, 09:49 AM

Yes asb seems to be broken. If anyone has the correct depth can they please post.
Thank you

Dentie

28-05-2014, 09:49 AM

Hancocks for someone who has spent so much time researching this company and its market.. well your conclusions are basically a joke.

1) US sales only started in July so they've only been pounding the pavement for a maximum of 10 months so far. In the commentary it outlines that their first US sales person was inducted in July and I imagine training took several weeks/months.
2) Doctors by their very nature are skeptical people and often it will take peer acceptance to get these sorts of technologies to take off (basically a snowball effect).
3) Refer to my comparable trajectory above which is from a much larger and well resourced company.
4) Presuming those Urologists who actually used the test were satisfied then PEB will generate repeat business from both their existing and new patients. Furthermore these Urologists will likely share the merits of the tests at their local conferences.

Overall I'm reasonably satisfied as my expectations were low. Commercialisation is well underway and if the market acts adversely then it will be a good opportunity to acquire more at a good price.

Absolutely agree with you!

jonu

28-05-2014, 09:51 AM

I'm also surprised by your pessimism Hancocks. The foot is in the door and I believe there will be a tremendous snowball effect over an 18 month period or so. I'm happy to be of the same mind of the big boys. Both SALT and W/pac have been accumulating on the dip.

Minerbarejet

28-05-2014, 09:53 AM

:scared:
Yes asb seems to be broken. If anyone has the correct depth can they please post.
Thank you
Trading halt or leftover service disruption from yesterday:)

Dont go into it blindfolded:scared:

Goldstein

28-05-2014, 09:58 AM

Yes asb seems to be broken. If anyone has the correct depth can they please post.
Thank you

ASB advertised earlier in the week that they were carrying out maintenance this morning and 'some' information would not be available.

silu

28-05-2014, 10:00 AM

I don't want to sound too negative (as I haven't researched it to the fullest) but nothing in the results announcements would make me feel at ease holding a company valued at over 300m.

tosspot

28-05-2014, 10:04 AM

Anyone have any idea when ASB will be back up. this is starting to happen far too often. Does DB go down once a month like ASB. Why cant they perform maintenance after or before trading hours

russbus

28-05-2014, 10:07 AM

10am. Couldn't get info from asb. Sharetrader was overloaded for a bit and i couldn't get on. :scared:

777

28-05-2014, 10:08 AM

Anyone have any idea when ASB will be back up. this is starting to happen far too often. Does DB go down once a month like ASB. Why cant they perform maintenance after or before trading hours

Belong to both then you are covered.

I must admit maintenance should be done outside trading hours.

Dentie

28-05-2014, 10:10 AM

10am. Couldn't get info from asb. Sharetrader was overloaded for a bit and i couldn't get on. :scared:

Yeah - they seem to be pointing at "NZX market data issues" ... but Mr T says DB all okay...time to change maybe?

couta1

28-05-2014, 10:11 AM

Yeah - they seem to be pointing at "NZX market data issues" ... but Mr T says DB all okay...time to change maybe?
Sounds like ASB sucks can't speak highly enough of my time and dealings with DB:cool:

Xerof

28-05-2014, 10:13 AM

Schrodinger

28-05-2014, 10:15 AM

"Our goal of attaining a business with a Gross Revenue of $100 million remains our target and continues to be readily attainable."

Note the change in goalposts. No mention of when just a vague statement that says in 5 years time. I see what they are doing is shifting the 5 year window sideways. At this rate they will hit $100M in 2050. Also interesting to note they gave no forward guidance of expected revenue in 2015 by sales range. This indicates to me they have no idea of uptake and it could be any figure. Most credible companies give some indication of sales range for next year. i.e. we expect revenue to fall between XXX. Minimal uptake in the US as expected.

Could not find US sales numbers which are hidden in consolidated. Whats to say they sold 100% in NZ and nothing in USA.

couta1

28-05-2014, 10:19 AM

this is looking really bad
Deadwood and trader shakeout today leaving only those committed long term remaining,sounds fine to me:cool:

Schrodinger

28-05-2014, 10:21 AM

$0.93 and falling

AndyLP

28-05-2014, 10:21 AM

Schrodinger it's on page 4. $95000 worth of sales in the United States. At 550 per test that's about 170 tests. Market will hate it

Schrodinger

28-05-2014, 10:21 AM

Show me the US sales numbers NewGuy.

Schrodinger

28-05-2014, 10:22 AM

Schrodinger it's on page 4. $95000 worth of sales in the United States. At 550 per test that's about 170 tests. Market will hate it

Thankyou. I will look into this.

russbus

28-05-2014, 10:29 AM

Yeah - they seem to be pointing at "NZX market data issues" ... but Mr T says DB all okay...time to change maybe?

I think it is, I have had the DB application pack all filled out on my desk for months now so it wouldnt take much

Longhaul

28-05-2014, 10:30 AM

Schrodinger it's on page 4. $95000 worth of sales in the United States. At 550 per test that's about 170 tests. Market will hate it

What I'm interested in is how many organisations/urologists are involved in the user programme and are the user programme tests free? They could be doing many more tests in the US than the $95,000 represents, and provided the users are convinced of the test's effectiveness they should continue to use it and start paying.

Feels like it could be a similar situation Xero faces in the US. It takes a lot of energy, time and money to get the ball rolling but when it does it picks up momentum far greater (we hope) than in other markets.

Oh well, time will tell. One thing that investing (or is it speculating?) is teaching me is patience!

Longhaul

28-05-2014, 10:36 AM

the company finished many user programs over 6 month.

How many? Any figures?

JohnnyTheHorse

28-05-2014, 10:36 AM

the company finished many user programs over 6 month.
This company is valued at 350m and can only produce 500k in sales after 9 months of intense marketing and user programs.

Hope you followed your own rules and sold your 'free' shares when it broke $1.

Schrodinger

28-05-2014, 10:38 AM

AndyLP

28-05-2014, 10:51 AM

So can I take it that there was no forward guidance for sales in 2015?

No guidance beyond CS saying that demand was strong for cxBladder.. and that he was delighted by the commercial uptake. Baffling stuff really.

JohnnyTheHorse

28-05-2014, 10:56 AM

sold @ opening this morning could not believe my luck that I got 95cps.
Still like the company but it is way over valued at 95cps.
will be looking to get back in at a far better price.

Good stuff. Can only see this drifting lower and lower from here. There will need to be some major announcements (bigger than the one the other day, market didn't really like that one eh?) for the trend to change.

Dentie

28-05-2014, 11:00 AM

Actually quite surprising at this early time of the day...thought it would be down to 75 - 80c by now but recovering a wee bit...I'll look in again at 5.10pm.

Casino

28-05-2014, 11:04 AM

Good stuff. Can only see this drifting lower and lower from here. There will need to be some major announcements (bigger than the one the other day, market didn't really like that one eh?) for the trend to change.

They predicted CMS coverage in early 2014 and have yet to deliver. That's disappointing but I hope we'll see that come through this year. The low initial sales don't worry me as much as the over-promising.

biker

28-05-2014, 11:08 AM

I think the company could now be at a rather vulnerable spot for a buyout. Everything in place except sales, (which are in their infancy but with no reason not to grow exponentially), the market weak, tentative and disappointed.
Meanwhile the future wealth of the company continues to transfer to the patient from the impatient.
Yawn.
Disc. Hold quite a few so I'm biased.

JohnnyTheHorse

28-05-2014, 11:11 AM

They predicted CMS coverage in early 2014 and have yet to deliver. That's disappointing but I hope we'll see that come through this year. The low initial sales don't worry me as much as the over-promising.

They say CxBladder will be fully launched in Australia and Spain in just one more year every year too. Still no signs of that happening. I get why they are focusing on the US, but they are failing to deliver in several areas.

Cobber

28-05-2014, 11:14 AM

more like a poor attempt at spin doctoring

Anyone that says they are after $100 million in revenue in 5 years is clearly desparate to be heard.

nextbigthing

28-05-2014, 11:16 AM

'There are currently 178 users browsing this thread'

Schrodinger

28-05-2014, 11:20 AM

Buyers

Buy
Quantity

Prices

1

423

$0.880

1

2,900

$0.860

1

8,000

$0.850

1

4,571

$0.800

1

1,350

$0.750

1

3,000

$0.700

1

3,000

$0.680

1

4,000

$0.500

8

27,244

Prices

Sell Quantity

Sellers

$0.900

110,163

4

$0.910

35,000

2

$0.920

91,277

2

$0.930

49,476

4

$0.940

36,794

3

$0.950

19,500

1

$0.960

20,000

1

$0.970

15,347

2

$0.980

31,691

3

$1.000

29,507

2

438,755

24

Thoughts on support?

Whipmoney

28-05-2014, 11:20 AM

Anyone that says they are after $100 million in revenue in 5 years is clearly desparate to be heard.

A comparable US biotech company achieved just over $100m (USD) in sales in exactly five years starting from initial test revenue of $227k (440 tests).

It certaintly isn't unachievable. I think 6-7 would be more likely however.

benjitara

28-05-2014, 11:20 AM

I'm not surprised with the lack of sales. I always thought the user programmes would run approx. 18 months in front of sales figures. I've de-risked my holding by getting my initial investment out but will hold the rest as I'm positive about increasing rates of sales over the next 12-18 months. Not to mention the fact they have recently advertised jobs in USA. Obviously the market may correct itself today but that brings us down to ground level and gets the speculators off our backs.

Xerof

28-05-2014, 11:33 AM

Catchee catchee fallee knifee! Think so, for now. a bit of a panic below 90 as the herd follows the one in front off the cliff

goldfish

28-05-2014, 11:35 AM

Pretty dissapointed with the results, was looking to buy back in on better numbers and guidance. No hurry now could be back to 50 cents on no news in a few months.

Dentie

28-05-2014, 11:35 AM

As a fly on the wall.... the AGM will be interesting place to be in a about 11 weeks time. I am sure DD & CS et al will already be formulating the answers to the expected questions....

Whipmoney

28-05-2014, 11:35 AM

Think so, for now. a bit of a panic below 90 as the herd follows the one in front off the cliff

Massive churn today (2,332,221 shares traded so far).

I think we might see some SSH notices over the next two days for big insto buyers who are outwitting traders / frightened retail punters.

LegendOfRiot

28-05-2014, 11:37 AM

Guessing the market will take a while to digest these results.

Mista_Trix

28-05-2014, 11:43 AM

Two big trades have gone through @ 90c.

I'd expect to see the close today at/near that 90c figure.

There's also someone taking large bites out of the board - look at 11:27, someone bit off $100,000 @.90c.
Someone's taking advantage of the panic.

JohnnyTheHorse

28-05-2014, 11:43 AM

PEB weighting for the NZX50 trackers will be dropping, so there will be selling pressure there when the weightings are updated.

NZSilver

28-05-2014, 11:45 AM

I think its an Ok result, a greater no. of test would have been nice - but I thought the number may have been smaller than some posters were predicting.

Heres my post from a while back;

Hopefully all is well - however I think traction will be slow

Its just how it goes when a new product enters the medical world, it takes a while before people adopt a new test (its human nature to stick to old faithful and what you already know), yes there may be a few tests anaylsed by the lab (100's to 1000's) but I suspect a high proportion of them will be free cxbladder "test" tests given to doctors to try. I feel there will be very few actual tests sold.

I think the price will drop as some people are disappointed - and I will be looking to pick some more shares up between 80-88 cents (thats a complete guess for the hell of it - predictions really are pointless this early on)

Dont get me wrong, I think this is a great product (superior to the current procedures/diagnostics) - however history has shown us multiple times that the best product dosn't always win - so there is a huge amount of risk still between now, adoption, profit and onto 100 mil revenue.

Im sitting on a few but have some cash sideline too.

.

Dentie

28-05-2014, 11:52 AM

There's also someone taking large bites out of the board - look at 11:27, someone bit off $100,000 @.90c.
Someone's taking advantage of the panic.

Hopefully its DD & CS

Dentie

28-05-2014, 11:59 AM

Massive churn today (2,332,221 shares traded so far).

I think we might see some SSH notices over the next two days for big insto buyers who are outwitting traders / frightened retail punters.

Good call Whip... looks like this will hopefully shake out any of those last traders and PEB can get back to being funded by investors. Until they have a well established sales trajectory (hopefully pointing upwards) ... it is not a stock for traders to play with anyway as they would be just playing between themselves - a bit like passing the parcel and playing Chinese whispers simultaneously.

Minerbarejet

28-05-2014, 12:04 PM

Well at least now we have some numbers to work with. 175 from 60million people over 26 weeks. Only thing missing is the rate of climb which can really only be established with the nov figures that can be attributable to this 60 mill.
All good. Much more to come and at a faster rate probably IMHO. Dont underestimate the expotential growth from satisfied clinicians, word of mouth, additional signings with providers and additional testing for existing clients, plus a sales force on the ground and working for a US COMPANY UNDER A US CEO.

Copper

28-05-2014, 12:09 PM

I see trade receivables at $579,000 - tests done but not paid for - might be several hundred tests in that.

On the cash side they spent ten mill odd this year.A year down the track with no great increase in testing receipts and possible larger expenditures on execs and sales staff especially in the US may we not see a need for a share issue just to be on the safe side liquidity wise in a year or so. If by chance the price is 70 cents it ain't the same as $1.25 and shares on issue would rise substantially.

Toasty

28-05-2014, 12:10 PM

Disc - not holding and definitely not planning to until we see a bottom

Keep watching the media. You will see Kate Middletons!

NZSilver

28-05-2014, 12:11 PM

bull....

28-05-2014, 12:19 PM

qieut on the boards , must be a few people licking there wounds

winner69

28-05-2014, 12:23 PM

Maybe - if they don't get to covering costs within the next 18 months to 2 years - still have 20m is cash so well placed at the moment. But that was not really my point. $574,000 could be up to 1000 tests that have been carried out and billed - which might indicate some forward momentum in the last couple of months of the financial year. Maybe I will email the company and ask about that.

If there is 574k in debtors they have been billed as you say .....SO APPEAR IN THE REVENUES LINE ALREADY

No bonus sales to come here

Sort of says what they have sold / billed ain't been paid yet

Note - haven't looked a financials yet

winner69

28-05-2014, 12:26 PM

Hope this isn't turning out to be another Blis Technologies

Seems like it

Meister

28-05-2014, 12:27 PM

Maybe - if they don't get to covering costs within the next 18 months to 2 years - still have 20m is cash so well placed at the moment. But that was not really my point. $574,000 could be up to 1000 tests that have been carried out and billed - which might indicate some forward momentum in the last couple of months of the financial year. Maybe I will email the company and ask about that.

Any ideas what Trade Receivables could be OTHER than sold tests? If winner is right, it still doesn't match up with the posted revenue?

Minerbarejet

28-05-2014, 12:31 PM

Hope this isn't turning out to be another Blis Technologies

Seems like it
You are down the wrong end ,mate:)

winner69

28-05-2014, 12:33 PM

Any ideas what Trade Receivables could be OTHER than sold tests? If winner is right, it still doesn't match up with the posted revenue?

Cash Flow Statement has cash received from customers as a miserly $212k .....all other reported revenues essentially not yet paid for and included in trade debtors

robbo24

28-05-2014, 12:35 PM

Any ideas what Trade Receivables could be OTHER than sold tests? If winner is right, it still doesn't match up with the posted revenue?

Insurers and bulk buyers would probably pay quarterly or something along those lines.

It could be that tests are pre purchased or paid for later.

Let's not forget what happened to DILs books when they accounted for revenue for work not yet done.. LOL

Dentie

28-05-2014, 12:37 PM

I should probably look through the thread more carefully, cause maybe the Q has been answered, but has it been put to PEB yet, whether their time frame for being profitable still stands? Maybe you can answer that one Dentie?

Looking back through the thread - even as late as this morning - numbers, profitability, time frames & even names have been reported on by the media (mis-quoted and mis-reported) and dissected over and over. To me, there is only one place where important questions should be asked - the AGM (or any other shareholder meetings with the company). With the amount of differing opinions on this & other threads (which are all entitled), it is only that - opinions ... and they will remain the subject of conjecture. How boring would it be if we all shared the same one? I can't wait for the AGM.

robbo24

28-05-2014, 12:38 PM

mikeybycrikey

28-05-2014, 12:47 PM

To me the current SP is pricing the $100M annual revenue as a near certainty. Which it isn't! This is a very risky stock and should be priced accordingly: which I think means maybe half its current price.

Admittedly, this $100M revenue only accounts for about 10% of the US market, so there could be significant upside if things go well, but they need to get enough sales to last five years before that is even a possibility.

Today's announcement doesn't change anything. it is still a risky stock with lots of potential that's tracking along as expected.

Despite all that, I'm thinking about buying in sometime soon. I like what they are doing.

winner69

28-05-2014, 12:48 PM

PS - I would be surprised if they bothered to account on a singular, test by test basis.

More likely the bulk contract holders will be billed, and pay, in large, less frequent amounts.

Looked at through this lens, revenues may start pumping up now.

But one would assume that all chargeable activities would be accounted for - whether by actual invoices or accruing for them. In other words all chargeable activities undertaken as at 31 March would be included in reported in the appropriate revenue lines

Balance

28-05-2014, 12:48 PM

"Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” Warren Buffett

Getting towards that 50% panic level?

couta1

28-05-2014, 12:52 PM

JohnnyTheHorse

28-05-2014, 12:52 PM

"Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” Warren Buffett

Getting towards that 50% panic level?

Sure is. I don't agree with that quote however. That only applies to those that buy and hold. It appears that most longer term holders here cannot deal with being 50% in the red and it causes them much distress for months and years. A trader on the other hand would never allow their loss to get ANYWHERE near 50%, losses get cut very short.

Dentie

28-05-2014, 12:58 PM

I wouldn't kid yourself Dentie, PEB has FAR AND AWAY been my best trading stock for well over a year!

Disc - not holding and definitely not planning to until we see a bottom

You may have missed my point there Moosie. What I was trying to get at was (in my opinion) the big jump/s in SP were not based on sales. They were based on announcements (or, the perceived promise of future sales) and that is where the traders (or those others looking for a quick opportunity) started piling in. One just has to look at the exploding shareholder base in the COY office records - and a lot were only small holders. Over the ensuing months, there was no change in the fundamental message but the price still eventually pulled back to a $1 as their market corrected. If those traders had not pushed the price up by bidding on potential future sales/profits - but waited instead for the actual sales/profits - then the big spike in the SP would never have happened and neither would this big drop have been as pronounced as it has been - and will continue to be until something solid occurs.

I'm sorry Moosie - but I think sometimes the activities and attitudes of some traders have the effect of pushing up company SP's artificially - when the company's actual performance hasn't yet been reported and then they blame the company when the actual performance doesn't meet their expectations. Effectively what has happened, is gamblers have been trading on a businesses performance - BEFORE that performance has even taken place. Going back to my hole now....

winner69

28-05-2014, 12:59 PM

"Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” Warren Buffett

Getting towards that 50% panic level?

Moose pointed out there are 318 million PEB shares

So a few million isn't too many

Maybe Mondays rhetoric worked and saved a complete disaster

Balance

28-05-2014, 01:00 PM

I'm doing just fine then:cool:

“Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.” Warren Buffett

winner69

28-05-2014, 01:02 PM

Mondays announcement saw the **** I can't miss out here madness and a lot of PEB went through at 111

Ouch now 21 cents less

Moral - positive announcements no longer send the price on an upward trajectory

couta1

28-05-2014, 01:03 PM

"Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” Warren Buffett

Getting towards that 50% panic level?
Reminds me of a true story I read the other day of an American gent who purchased a large mixed stock portfolio in different sectors and had a ten year time frame and so decided he wouldn't check those stocks over that period and low and behold at the end of ten years he had made over 2.5 times his original investment During that ten year period there were several wars, a large economic downturn and many other negative events meanwhile he enjoyed his golf,fishing etc nuff said

psychic

28-05-2014, 01:08 PM

I'm guessing the test kits themselves are inexpensive to put together. If, for arguments sake they were $30 ea then we might have say 8000 test kits sitting in the lab or perhaps distributed to Urologists etc. (Inventory $242k at 31 March 2014)

Will they be utilised or are they gathering dust we wonder?
Time will tell. I'm betting they will be sold.

winner69

28-05-2014, 01:14 PM

From the announcement

......opportunity to develop $100 million in gross revenue at the completion of its fifth full year of trading.

And

.......[could be worth up to $100 million in gross revenue for our company

Use of words like 'opportunity' and 'could be' and 'up to' not that quantitive are they .....a bit vague and maybe with a bit of good luck something like that is 'attainable'

Outlook seems to be along the lines is we will do lots of good things but not that much selling

That's my interpretation if the brief announcement - pent of debate before the ASM eh

winner69

28-05-2014, 01:20 PM

Where's Sparky when you need him eh? Anyone got a clown light bulb to put in the search light to bounce off the clouds?

Methinks Sparks is working with SNOOPY right now on coming up with a new valuation

couta1

28-05-2014, 01:27 PM

Interesting that even though the Nasdaq is on the up our tech stocks are still in the doldrums Intuit is only $2 below its 52wk high for example. Sure Xro has risen a bit but still $13 off its high, SLI heading toward IPO price, Wyn only up on recent good news, ATM well down etc etc?

winner69

28-05-2014, 01:41 PM

You still holding Winner? I note for some time now you seemed concerned, just wondering if you have bailed or not?

Sold half my free ones the other day when the rhetoric didn't seem to work its usual magic

As said earlier by DCF valuation is 95 - 120 on different scenarios

So touch and go for the remaining half but not panicking even though the tone of the announcement was rather muted

Might be tempted at 50/60 cents again

Meister

28-05-2014, 02:12 PM

Winner and hancocks, it is a little difficult to figure out whether all of the trade receivables are included in the top line revenue number as the figures don't telly. I think it is clear however that the figure hancocks uses to calculate his 170 tests from the US does not included trade receivables. Which as I said may indicate a lump of tests (maybe 1000 or so) coming through for billing in the last month or two, if debtors are relatively up to date.

The NZ Research column has all the 'unallocated revenue' which should include the trade receivables? I dont know how NZ Research could be making that revenue though. Wish it was easier to decipher. Will the final full year report be clearer? O.o

edit: After a brief chat with an accountant, the top line revenue figure does include trade receivables. The fact that they dont add up means something else funny is going on, perhaps still owed money from the previous reporting period?

Dentie

28-05-2014, 02:13 PM

jesus, enough of the Buffet quotes.

personally, I am sitting on a pretty heavy unrealised loss with this stock, but the recent signed agreements and other critical pieces of the infrastructure invariably mean that sales will grow. Accordingly, I'm willing to sit this out for another 12 months or so and exit when the traders have gone home and actual investors start to realise the company's potential.

Bit of a roller coaster though, innit.

B&E

With all his wisdom flowing of late ... we probably have Warren in our midst!

winner69

28-05-2014, 02:19 PM

The NZ Research column has all the 'unallocated revenue' which should include the trade receivables? I dont know how NZ Research could be making that revenue though. Wish it was easier to decipher. Will the final full year report be clearer? O.o

edit: After a brief chat with an accountant, the top line revenue figure does include trade receivables. The fact that they dont add up means something else funny is going on, perhaps still owed money from the previous reporting period?

Segment sales

Lab sales to customers NZ $45k / USA $95k

Those are the numbers you should be worried about

The unallocated $698k NZ Research is god knows what but probably not tests, charges for services or something

Not much in the way of tests eh

MAC

28-05-2014, 02:20 PM

Just home from a morning under the knife to find my portfolio under it too, so ouch and well, ouch.

A bit below my 1,000 to 5,000 range of satisfaction, so I would have to say I’m thus a little bit unsatisfied, though I think Andrew Bascand may have summed it up this morning fairly;

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1405/S01031/correct-pacific-edge-widens-annual-loss-shares-drop.htm

I’m happy with the reaffirmation of the $100M goal and with it being stated as gross revenues rather than revenues, that’s good positive continuity, though I find the delay in the launch of cxbladder(triage) a little bit niggling, and something now to watch in regard to the overall development schedule, although to date Pacific Edge have been timely with development so it is not necessarily a trend, and we don’t yet know the reason.

Low sales were expected to 31 March while establishing in Hershey and I don’t necessarily see any additional reason to doubt profitability at HY15 or FY15 at this time, though we may need to wait for the AGM and the few more months of roll out between now and then to get some feel and/or confirmation of that.

The $10M loss was inside my expectation of $11.5, and affirms roughly how many tests will be required for profitability to be achieved, circa 15,000 to 20,000, allowing for forward staff ramp up.

blah

28-05-2014, 02:20 PM

The NZ Research column has all the 'unallocated revenue' which should include the trade receivables? I dont know how NZ Research could be making that revenue though. Wish it was easier to decipher. Will the final full year report be clearer? O.o

edit: After a brief chat with an accountant, the top line revenue figure does include trade receivables. The fact that they dont add up means something else funny is going on, perhaps still owed money from the previous reporting period?

I'm guessing the research revenue comes mainly from research grants, PBRF or whatever that government pays out to support research?

winner69

28-05-2014, 02:23 PM

Black Kant

You are searching for something that does not exist. There is no big bundle of tests that weren't accounted for as at March 31st. Trust me

Maybe heaps of free ones but none that have to be paid me

Even Meisters accountant ant friend says so

winner69

28-05-2014, 02:35 PM

I'm guessing the research revenue comes mainly from research grants, PBRF or whatever that government pays out to support research?

Prob interest income is included in that unallocated income (was last year)

Had a few million in the bank eh

****e ....less and less from selling stuff

couta1

28-05-2014, 02:46 PM

Yes, I think it was a small timer as my rep seems unaffected (bigger the rep the more points you can add/take off others).

Whoever it is, I'm sorry for your loss, but I was just trying to help as always. Please don't call my comments crap again as I think before I speak and do not release words from my posterior!
Impossible to please everyone on here Moosie but I bet if it was compulsory to have to leave your name beside your comment you would hardly get a bad rep ever.

Wolf

28-05-2014, 02:53 PM

Would of been nice of them to have released this after market to be honest instead of a scramble to read it this morning.
With the ASB depth problems this morning im not overly stoked.

blackcap

28-05-2014, 03:19 PM

Yes, I think it was a small timer as my rep seems unaffected (bigger the rep the more points you can add/take off others).

Whoever it is, I'm sorry for your loss, but I was just trying to help as always. Please don't call my comments crap again as I think before I speak and do not release words from my posterior!

Do not let it bother you Moosie. If people want to vent because they did not heed your warning and have now lost loads of $$$ just let them stew. A fool and his/her money is easily parted. Interesting that for a lot of people "investing" becomes emotional and that is in itself a warning sign that you are in the wrong game.

winner69

28-05-2014, 03:26 PM

I'm interested too in the accounts analysis by suitably qualified or knowledgeable persons, research funding (Callaghan) was a percentage of R&D spend (can't remember off hand).

From whats been disclosed not much to go on yet so we don't really know what is in trade debtors

March 12 figure included Trade Debtors (From revenues) / accrued interest / BAS refund due and a GST refund due

So it can include many things

Need to wait to see the notes to the accounts next month to make any real analysis

Carpenterjoe

28-05-2014, 03:59 PM

Hahaha, I'm surprised they didn't lead with sales up from $15022 to $145000. Makes for a great percentage.
Hopefully the same percentage growth next year and possible its more.

Disc, holding(35k) and sleeping at night

geo

28-05-2014, 04:04 PM

Disappointed yes thought we might have had a better result. Extending loss to 10m receiving 500k that would probably not cover the wage bill, Talk of setting up Spain please get the US paying it's way first how much will set up costs be for Spain and wait at least 2 years for a return?

Cash burn last year 10m but that's OK let's have another capital raising. Hope the management is up to the task of running this company the scientists have done a fabulous job over the last 12 years time for the management to step up. Thinking of selling out and look at it again next year done very well, I will find it hard to go through another 6 months information vacuum. CS comment we have no debt they don't need it when they have loyal shareholders to tap on the shoulder.

blobbles

28-05-2014, 05:26 PM

Agree with Hancocks here, a pretty dismal result. I was expecting sales to be at least in the 3000-5000 mark for 10 months at this point when covering a quarter of the population. It does seem to indicate a much slower uptake from urologists (than I was expecting) who are going through their user program too, I am sure there would quite a number of them who have been involved in this and given, say 3-6 months of free evaluations, which I would expect then to move into sales if they see value in CxBladder. The low number of sales suggests to me that many of them are opting out. Given that PEB have not stated the number of Urologists in the user program, nor their progression through the user program, methinks they don't want to tell us this information (user program to sales conversion ratio). That would be a key metric for us shareholders to judge acceptance and therefore future potential profitability.

Think I might bail until they give us more information that has better news. Doesn't bother me much as I am still sitting on 100%+ profit but I feel for those who got in on the high side of $1.30.

Nevertheless, we are probably still onto a winner here as the science is sound, which their results indicate. It just might not be a winner in the states (hugely political medical environment) or may be a LOT slower than I was expecting. Expecting much more pain over the next few days regarding SP... three days of drops?

winner69

28-05-2014, 05:39 PM

Part of Hancocks earlier post - The result is very poor for a $9Million spend in my opinion, I measured progress based on commentary and documentation from Pacific Edge and it did not measure up to me.

Accumulated losses are now $46m - you could have said a very poor result for a $46m spend over many years building up to this

psychic

28-05-2014, 05:41 PM

Be a riot if they announce the Medicaid deal tomorrow eh
What would insurance coverage have on the effect of uptake?

okay

28-05-2014, 05:48 PM

Continued respect for your comments Hancocks. Many a holder with much less of a holding than yourself will try to put a spin on what is a pretty mediocre result, 145k in actual sales e.g (non interest/grants) at a cost of a cool 10m.

Anyone honest whether holders or not would admit that is at the very low end of expectations.

What I find interesting is the fact they were able to budget the loss within 130k, -9.379m actual, to -9.251m budget. As they comfortingly say, the loss was "within budgeted expectations".

Hey if these guys have such a good insight, and accurate budgeting, why can't they turn it into some forward guidance instead of just trotting the 100m in 5 years all the time? As for whether there was or wasn't any talk of positive cash flows this financial year, knowing how good their budgeting is, there must have been a misquote somewhere as it can't have come from them.

skid

28-05-2014, 05:53 PM

Well that was one quick love affair---Jumped on board last week to take a punt on the results--bailed today.
I only wish I had been at the computer earlier,when the results came out---could have been worse I guess--could have been an OUCH!!,instead of an ouch..

Copper

28-05-2014, 06:02 PM

Goldstein

28-05-2014, 06:15 PM

Interesting looking at the board its filled with Kiwis and an Australian. I would expect them to have a very influential USA director to help with the USA market. Not doing the basics well. PEB need to start thinking like an international business and not like a NZ centric one.

Go and check the board of Diligent and Xero etc. They have influential USA directors that can grease the wheels.

If PEB are targeting urologists then they need scientific clout on the board.

I'm also a bit disappointed with the lack of commentary about the sales. The market will assume the worst and precipitate a buying opportunity for instos over the next week or so.

psychic

28-05-2014, 06:16 PM

In the 2012/2013 Investor presentation PEB estimated the US market for cxbladder as:

Govt 50% CMS for Medicare and Medicaid, VA for Vets
Pvte Ins 45% LUGs 20% Other 5%
HMO's 20% eg Kaiser, Permanente, Intermountain
Instit OSHA 5%

Now I will admit that this gets to 120% (obviously explained by the HMO's also in the pvte ins share)

But a slow uptake by self serving-butt protecting American Urologists does not necessarily mean we have a flawed business model - yet.

The bigger deals when landed - and we know they are working on them - may stop some chest beating on this thread..

Perhaps..

klid

28-05-2014, 06:16 PM

Someone tell David to release regular test results like he said. Things seem fine to me but disappointed they hadn't already sold more but as mentioned a field hockey stick graph...

blobbles

28-05-2014, 06:24 PM

Be a riot if they announce the Medicaid deal tomorrow eh
What would insurance coverage have on the effect of uptake?

Shouldn't mean a thing. We clearly now know that coverage <> sales. This should be obvious when the downward SP slide was not interrupted by the MultiPlan coverage agreement. People I think have realised that they could be covered by every insurer, that doesn't mean they are going to sell anything, which is why we invest in them.

Casino

28-05-2014, 06:28 PM

Shouldn't mean a thing. We clearly now know that coverage <> sales. This should be obvious when the downward SP slide was not interrupted by the MultiPlan coverage agreement. People I think have realised that they could be covered by every insurer, that doesn't mean they are going to sell anything, which is why we invest in them.

I think you're confusing insurers and PPOs. CMS coverage would be huge.

blobbles

28-05-2014, 06:31 PM

Oh and my feeling now - 40c-50c SP could easily be in the wings over the next 6 months until we get another sales report. If the next one is positive (at that point it will need to be 8-20k plus tests or more) then we might be seeing 90c-$1 again. Until then I think the market will assume the worst.

blobbles

28-05-2014, 06:36 PM

I think you're confusing insurers and PPOs. CMS coverage would be huge.

Not at all. Does having CMS coverage guarantee sales?

klid

28-05-2014, 06:40 PM

Sales or incompetence. Which will prevail?

psychic

28-05-2014, 06:43 PM

Casino - you are back! :)

Blobbles - don't understand your thinking here.
CxBladder promises improved diagnosis, cheaper. If the test is covered by CMS &/or private Insurers, this will go, no doubt.

Why should it not be covered (in time)?
The SP is irrelevant

Casino

28-05-2014, 06:46 PM

Not at all. Does having CMS coverage guarantee sales?

It certainly helped with CertNDx and I would expect a similar sales curve for CXbladder. It never occurred to me why sales should start high and be linear?

blobbles

28-05-2014, 07:29 PM

It certainly helped with CertNDx and I would expect a similar sales curve for CXbladder. It never occurred to me why sales should start high and be linear?

Sure, sales of CertNDx went from $1 million in their first year (which looks like this will not be achieved by PEB who have a better test, mind) to $14 million two years later with CMS coverage (until it was removed around 2013).

That's not bad but if PEB follow a similar path, we can expect $14 million of sales in 2 years with CMS coverage. Not sure about you, but I don't think that sort of possible sales in 2 years supports the almost $300 million market cap we currently have, in my book. I shudder to think of any applicable ratio currently to value the company.

I think people need to switch from "This has HUGE potential" mindset to cold hard facts of sales numbers, profit/loss margins etc when they assess this company now. While they may be only in their first year, they appear to have a fairly revolutionary product that they can't sell. That's less than good in my books and smells a bit funny. They seem to have the right people set up in the states, the right product, gaining the right accreditations and deals, but can't sell. Why? What is the block? If they are honest about it, they should tell us what this is.

blobbles

28-05-2014, 07:33 PM

Oh and the CertNDx was cheaper, at $380, so to get to the $1million mark, they had to sell more than PEB have done. More tests sold means better acceptance.

Remember in 2011 they started out with 3 tests, very similar to PEB's result last year. A year later they reported $1 million in sales of their tests (circa 2600 tests). PEB is now (edit: almost) a year on and they have sold how many? If they had sold 2600, we would all be having a very different conversation, I feel.

Dentie

28-05-2014, 07:40 PM

For a start I would have thought Hancocks postings on this thread have always been of the highest quality.
There are only two joke's today....
one is the 170 test resulting in poor revenues
two is the people who can not see it for what it is which is a dismal failure to penetrate their target market.
The company is paying the price for arrogance.
Yes they may have a great product but their go it alone attitude with a single product into the mass market that is dominated by pharmaceutical juggernauts is clearly failing.
There arrogance to go forth without being in a joint venture is meaning ridiculously slow sales traction.
Lets face it we have all been sold a bit of a story which continues to lack the fundamentals that are required to become a successful business.

I know everyone is entitled to their opinions ...BUT...

I'm amazed to see you calling PEB the arrogant party Snapiti... especially AFTER the event and more especially when you were holding shares in the company... which you now appear to have ditched. In fact with all your comments leading up to today I can't understand why you waited until today to get rid of them....bob each way I suppose.

I actually see the Urologists as being arrogant. I agree with you that PEB have a great product and they have been well funded to get it into the market and they have the infrastructure in place to deal with a large amount of tests and they have signed up large groups to get access to the population. So, what is stopping the urologists from uptaking CXBladder? Maybe something to do with $$$ me thinks. Are you telling me the Urologists would uptake the product only if PEB were in a JV with one of the big boys? Is that what Sam Morgan had to do to get Trademe going...or Lorde to get access to the US market...or Zuckerburg to get Facebook going...or the All Blacks to be world champions?

Pleasing to see you've stopped with the Buffett quotes by the way Snap ... doing the practical side of things is always more difficult than doing the theory...anyone can do that bit.

Microsloth

28-05-2014, 08:28 PM

Sold my last shares today for a small profit, Disappointing results , only regret not selling when Directors did (7 March), was that at the point when they new the sales weren't there to support share price ? I wonder.

Tomorrow is going to be telling can't see anything to slow further decline in share price.

Would like to be surprised in 12 months that PEB has made progress on sales and share price rises accordingly but.....

couta1

28-05-2014, 08:47 PM

Short answer, for me, not yet Moosie, bit early.
Ditto holding tight with 50 k of them at $1.20 average buy in.

psychic

28-05-2014, 08:51 PM

Mr Market gonna speak again when the cost of the test is covered eh Moosie, and there will be a few more lessons for all.

Look, what % patients are going to pay for this test (& Urologists markup) if is not insured?

If it is going to save the Insurer/ Govt money and improve the lot of the patient then tell me why they would not go with it.

psychic

28-05-2014, 09:02 PM

Righto, thanks Snapiti. This one is clearly not for you

Snow Leopard

28-05-2014, 10:05 PM

PEB sticking to their usual bare minimal initial financial statements with a fairly vague (and to me occasionally self-contradictory) commentary.

Possibly they sold more tests through the NZ lab that the US.

So lots more patiently waiting and seeing.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

robbo24

29-05-2014, 12:30 AM

Yaaawwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnn...

PEB news comes in threes. Even moosie can't deny it.

All will be revealed...

baller18

29-05-2014, 05:13 AM

I was not expecting big sales, but 127..
However, talking to a few friends who are GP's i knew the uptake was going to be slow.
If I'm not wrong Nz had more sales people than the states, 4 to 2 a year ago, but for some reason most doctors in Nz have never heard of cxbladder.
Doctors have inservices, conferences and we etc,etc so why is the word spreading so slow in the small NZ? Where there is like a one degree separation.
I mean flip, why don't the sales people ring up these primary practices and offer inservices themselves? I work in the health sector, and companies who supply medical equipment are always approching us themselves to give us inservices.
I don't know what their sale strategy is, but just getting their names out there to all doctors, urologists and specialists or any doctor, it is definitely one step closer.
THis is seriously something i don't quite understand... To put it bluntly pretty much no GP has heard of cxbladder.
All posters here were all more concerned with getting sales through and etc, etc, but did anyone realise after some of the posts, pretty much no doctors have even heard of this product!!!! This was bugging me the most than sales.
how we even going to get sales if no one even knows the product???
sighs... We all missed the simplest thing......

False Profit

29-05-2014, 06:44 AM

I think Snapiti is having a bad hair day :)

Dentie

29-05-2014, 06:52 AM

Dentie comments like this from the company have no credit given the actual results.
I am not sure if this could be considered an arrogant statement or just plain stupid but I am not interested in investing in a company with a chairman who would make such a comment given the results.

Chairman of Pacific Edge, Chris Swann, said: “During
the year it has been affirmed to us that our product,
Cxbladder, is in strong demand as an accurate tool for
the detection of bladder cancer.

If the chairman thinks 170 test over a 6 month period is an indication of strong demand he is a f#$$%^ idiot

One thing I respect about you Snapiti is you shoot from the hip and say exactly what you think. Great stuff and I wish all people would do that.

On that basis then, I look forward to you putting your above comments to Mr Swann at the AGM, which is where it will have the most impact. I will most certainly be there to observe and learn.

Dentie

29-05-2014, 06:59 AM

A Wee article in the paper: David Darling remains adamant gross annual revenues of $100 million are ''readily attainable'' by the end of its fifth full year of trading.

HyperLink: Otago Daily Times Article (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/303928/pacific-edge-focusing-expansion)

And this from DD...

He declined to give an update on actual test numbers, since they began in the US in the second half of 2013, or to provide any guidance on expectations for the current year.

This raises the eyebrows ... looks like everything is going to continue to be kept as a surprise. Not so good.

baller18

29-05-2014, 07:41 AM

Mac - please clear your inbox. AtAt

winner69

29-05-2014, 07:44 AM

This from the National Business Review:

Pacific Edge had a loss of $9.95 million, or 3.2 cents per share, in the 12 months ended March 31, compared to a loss of $6.92 million, or 2.5 cents, a year earlier, the Dunedin-based company said in a statement. Sales rose 63 percent to $838,000, while trading revenue almost tripled to $523,000 after it started selling its first bladder cancer product in the US in July.

Where do those figures come from, not the report I read?

The $838k is Total Operating Revenue and +62.7% on last year $515k

The $523k is 187.4% on last year $182k so almost trebled

All PEB numbers
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/194529.pdf

So besides looking like fellow Otago company Blis the press is also reporting in Snak Media language with the phrases like almost trebling

Whipmoney

29-05-2014, 07:57 AM

He also says you pricing varies hugely and you can't just divide revenue to get the number of tests...don't know what that means really.

I've looked at other comparables companys and the pricing never quite matches trading rev/no. of tests (there's generally more tests early on).

I suspect that they discount the tests at least initially to get them in the door.

The interesting thing is that once their sales were pumping their test price actually went up so maybe PEB have scope to increase theres down the track too?

Whipmoney

29-05-2014, 09:08 AM

I don't know what their sale strategy is, but just getting their names out there to all doctors, urologists and specialists or any doctor, it is definitely one step closer.

This is seriously something i don't quite understand... To put it bluntly pretty much no GP has heard of cxbladder.

All posters here were all more concerned with getting sales through and etc, etc, but did anyone realise after some of the posts, pretty much no doctors have even heard of this product!!!! This was bugging me the most than sales.

how we even going to get sales if no one even knows the product???
sighs... We all missed the simplest thing......

Mmmm well maybe its because their target market isn't GP's, rather its to actual Urologists who deal with bladder problems. If you have blood in your urine you will most likely be seeing a urologist either way.

If you actually bothered to read any of the company's news pieces, Investor presentations or comments then you would see that they are targeting Urology Groups / Practices.

skid

29-05-2014, 09:20 AM

Sure, sales of CertNDx went from $1 million in their first year (which looks like this will not be achieved by PEB who have a better test, mind) to $14 million two years later with CMS coverage (until it was removed around 2013).

That's not bad but if PEB follow a similar path, we can expect $14 million of sales in 2 years with CMS coverage. Not sure about you, but I don't think that sort of possible sales in 2 years supports the almost $300 million market cap we currently have, in my book. I shudder to think of any applicable ratio currently to value the company.

I think people need to switch from "This has HUGE potential" mindset to cold hard facts of sales numbers, profit/loss margins etc when they assess this company now. While they may be only in their first year, they appear to have a fairly revolutionary product that they can't sell. That's less than good in my books and smells a bit funny. They seem to have the right people set up in the states, the right product, gaining the right accreditations and deals, but can't sell. Why? What is the block? If they are honest about it, they should tell us what this is.

Thats spot on IMO--PEB was languishing around the .50 level when they announced the first of the companies on board for their product--At that news the SP rocketed (all the way to 1.70).
Now we are finding that it has not translated into sales (and they are 45 mil in debt) so obviously the game has changed--Before it was a great,well run co. with a good product,but no one knew exactly how to value it--Now it is ,maybe not such a great, well run co.(or the market is harder than they anticipated) with a good product,and alot are thinking the valuation is more like somewhere between that .50 mark and where we are now--That .75 moosies charts are showing is not out of the question.

robbo24

29-05-2014, 09:25 AM

Thats spot on IMO--PEB was languishing around the .50 level when they announced the first of the companies on board for their product--At that news the SP rocketed (all the way to 1.70).
Now we are finding that it has not translated into sales (and they are 45 mil in debt) so obviously the game has changed--Before it was a great,well run co. with a good product,but no one knew exactly how to value it--Now it is ,maybe not such a great, well run co.(or the market is harder than they anticipated) with a good product,and alot are thinking the valuation is more like somewhere between that .50 mark and where we are now--That .75 moosies charts are showing is not out of the question.

Where on the financials is this 45m debt?

Page number please?

winner69

29-05-2014, 09:35 AM

Where on the financials is this 45m debt?

Page number please?

Think somebody a bit confused

The $45m odd is accumulated losses (retained earnings part of the balance sheet)

Harvey Specter

29-05-2014, 09:36 AM

Now we are finding that it has not translated into sales (and they are 45 mil in debt) so obviously the game has changed--Before it was a great,well run co. with a good product,but no one knew exactly how to value it--Now it is ,maybe not such a great, well run co.(or the market is harder than they anticipated) with a good product,and alot are thinking the valuation is more like somewhere between that .50 mark and where we are now--That .75 moosies charts are showing is not out of the question.Correction - $45m of accumulated losses. They have no debt*. They have $20m cash in the bank which they say will last them through to being cash flow positive (or is that just an operation cashflow positive??)

Note: they do have short term liabilities but it is not interest bearing debt.

winner69

29-05-2014, 09:38 AM

I thought the test revenues were broken down by region. The report I saw clearly said "US laboratory revenue $95k"

Assuming (say) $500 per test, that's about 190 tests. Are you guys reading the same information?

New Guy - you get the impression that most don't bother read the financials (even if they lack a bit of detail at the moment)

Seems so eh

geo

29-05-2014, 09:48 AM

Im not surprised given all the flak that he got over t.o.t. They will be pretty tight lipped from now.

That's his role to the flak. We all spent good money to become shareholders and are entitled to all current information good or bad, so we can decide if this is a good investment or not.

But he's got a good sidestep on him.

ddrone

29-05-2014, 09:49 AM

Depth looking interesting for traders this morning.

Whipmoney

29-05-2014, 09:51 AM

What DD is basically saying is there is no way in hell he wants the market to know how many actual sales were achieved in the US...... why because it will show there commercialization strategy in the US has been a complete failure.

Actually by definition a complete failure would be zero sales in the US.

Tell me Snapiti, how many comparable biotech companies have you actually looked at in order to compare sales trajectories?

Judging by the sound of your rhetoric, I'm beginning to think that you've actually looked at none and if that's true then i'm giving you a "complete failure" grade for your analysis.

biker

29-05-2014, 09:56 AM

Thats spot on IMO--PEB was languishing around the .50 level when they announced the first of the companies on board for their product--At that news the SP rocketed (all the way to 1.70).
Now we are finding that it has not translated into sales (and they are 45 mil in debt) so obviously the game has changed--Before it was a great,well run co. with a good product,but no one knew exactly how to value it--Now it is ,maybe not such a great, well run co.(or the market is harder than they anticipated) with a good product,and alot are thinking the valuation is more like somewhere between that .50 mark and where we are now--That .75 moosies charts are showing is not out of the question.

I think some posters need to do some very basic research before posting dribble. They are NOT 45 mil in debt. They have effectively NO debt. A very basic fact that the some simple reading would verify. Why post such ignorant statements?

Schrodinger

29-05-2014, 09:57 AM

Thats spot on IMO--PEB was languishing around the .50 level when they announced the first of the companies on board for their product--At that news the SP rocketed (all the way to 1.70).
Now we are finding that it has not translated into sales (and they are 45 mil in debt) so obviously the game has changed--Before it was a great,well run co. with a good product,but no one knew exactly how to value it--Now it is ,maybe not such a great, well run co.(or the market is harder than they anticipated) with a good product,and alot are thinking the valuation is more like somewhere between that .50 mark and where we are now--That .75 moosies charts are showing is not out of the question.

A few thousand posts back I brought this issue up. NZ companies dont just waltz into the US and supplant US incumbents. Most investor here have been taken for a ride. It takes alot more to win the market than a dream.

couta1

29-05-2014, 10:04 AM

A few thousand posts back I brought this issue up. NZ companies dont just waltz into the US and supplant US incumbents. Most investor here have been taken for a ride. It takes alot more to win the market than a dream.
Yes but without dreams nothing can be acheived:cool:

geo

29-05-2014, 10:11 AM

yawn, whatever.

NG you are by far the best stirrer on this thread.

Schrodinger

29-05-2014, 10:12 AM

True but lets try and turn them into reality:

PEB recipe for sales:

Form a partnership with a US incumbent to distribute their product. The bigger the better. This is not a "we can see your product" but a direct to end user partner who is willing to drop their current products and stock PEB's.
Fire all sales guys and focus on getting distribution agreements setup which can be negotiated by senior executives in PEB.
Get highly influential US based directors and/or shareholders who can push this internally in the US health system.
Start state by state and focus on states with the right connections and noises from the market.
All else fails hope that a US company will take pity and offer a token amount for takeover $50M?

robbo24

29-05-2014, 10:13 AM

Please stop the puerile behaviour, insults and name calling on this thread.

Everyone is special.

Schrodinger

29-05-2014, 10:17 AM

For the last time, Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA is an American Company with an American CEO and staff.
We do not have a bunch of New Zealand University students running around selling "stuff" in the US.
Diagnosis of current events: all cool, Prognosis: 2596 tests by end of Sept 2014 assuming CMS inclusion

American CEO, and USA company is rather misleading isnt it? The USA know what a USA company is and arent stuopid enough to fall for a "we have registered a company in the US". This is a NZ business not a US business.

skid

29-05-2014, 10:18 AM

Correction - $45m of accumulated losses. They have no debt*. They have $20m cash in the bank which they say will last them through to being cash flow positive (or is that just an operation cashflow positive??)

Note: they do have short term liabilities but it is not interest bearing debt.

Your right --got it wrong.... Apologies

blocker3

29-05-2014, 10:21 AM

Good Morning Posters

I have read the mornings posts on PEB. Resulting in that I have cut my losses big time

I'm out

at 0.89 & 0.87......... Bugger.

This sale was hard to do however there maybe another day in about 6 months time when the share price is cheaper.

'Thanks Moosie "
Cheers all

Carpenterjoe

29-05-2014, 10:25 AM

Frist sale made 18 October

Reporting period ends 31st march

Take out a month for Christmas

I have a successful trading period of 4.5 months to sell 170ish tests.

I'm thinking the march sales period might be in accounts receivable.

Maybe 170 tests in 3.5 months?????

Am I having a brain fart? This doesn't seem horrible.

Mista_Trix

29-05-2014, 10:25 AM

Let the trend be your friend.

This aint coming back up for at least a little while.

blocker3

29-05-2014, 10:26 AM

Let the trend be your friend.

This aint coming back up for at least a little while.

Thanks Mista-Tix

Mista_Trix

29-05-2014, 10:29 AM

Thanks Mista-Tix

I got PUNISHED by DIL on the down-trend "I'll average down" I told myself ... what a silly idea that attempted to be.
So with that lesson in mind I jumped out yesterday even though I'm all for this company, I know I could have sat on unrealised losses until it regained (and they never would have been realised), but what's to say something doesn't change in the interim.

Time to find a stock that's trending upwards at least :-S

blocker3

29-05-2014, 10:31 AM

I got PUNISHED by DIL on the down-trend "I'll average down" I told myself ... what a silly idea that attempted to be.
So with that lesson in mind I jumped out yesterday even though I'm all for this company, I know I could have sat on unrealised losses until it regained (and they never would have been realised), but what's to say something doesn't change in the interim.

Time to find a stock that's trending upwards at least :-S

Well said
Cheers

Cor Blimey its 0.79 now

mbrook

29-05-2014, 10:33 AM

I don't understand the panic or negativity here at all. I have seen numerous financial institutions stockpile over 5% holdings in PEB, at much higher prices at today. They can see value here and future return. PEB was voted top Biotech company for 2014, and has a revolutionary product just hitting the market. Give it time. A simple urine test for bladder cancer, instead on invasive tests! It's a winner and the global market is Huge. I bought in at 111c and 100c and am staying put. This isn't a research company that burns investor cash without success or a product. We have a product and no debt. It's now now sales and marketing time, give it a chance to make traction. The daily traded volumes don't indicate a mass exodus for the door.. Another thought here is that PEB is also a prime takeover target for the big American drug companies. Buy a company that has an approved product about to hit the market.

silu

29-05-2014, 10:33 AM

Yesterday I made a back-of-the-envelope calculation and thought that I'd tempted at 70c. But I had no idea that it could actually happen. Good luck to the holders.

skid

29-05-2014, 10:35 AM

Schrodinger

29-05-2014, 10:37 AM

weeeeeee. Look at that drop!

russbus

29-05-2014, 10:37 AM

Well i am also out with a small loss. I did not have an exit strategy and it lost me some decent profits, should of sold on the downtrend at 1.40-1.50. I also got too emotionally attached to this company. Lesson learnt, will be back in when things change

blocker3

29-05-2014, 10:37 AM

nextbigthing

29-05-2014, 10:38 AM

An important issue that seemingly isn't being discussed is why. Why was there a lack of sales? Are people not happy with the product? They don't perceive it to have enough benefits over the current standard? Or has it not had enough visibility yet? Or are Urologists still waiting for necessary approvals from their companies to use the product which will happen over the next year.

I think this is vitally important as it will explain where the company is heading...boom or bust. If it's just waiting for the processes to use it to be approved then this is a great top up opportunity, if it's because they don't see any benefit then run to the hills.

Disc still holding some but have sold a significant portion awaiting better news.

Balance

29-05-2014, 10:40 AM

I believe that this company has a fantastic future I agree.

But for me I have to manage all the red ink over my spread sheet resulting in a sale.
Cheers

Traders bailing out and it's panic time.

Balance

29-05-2014, 10:40 AM

I believe that this company has a fantastic future I agree.

But for me I have to manage all the red ink over my spread sheet resulting in a sale.
Cheers

Traders bailing out and it's panic time.

couta1

29-05-2014, 10:41 AM

I think I'm immune to paper losses now some of you would be frightened if you knew how much I'm sitting on:scared:

Theracay

29-05-2014, 10:44 AM

I got PUNISHED by DIL on the down-trend "I'll average down" I told myself ... what a silly idea that attempted to be.

This averaging down tactic is quite common it seems, I see it mentioned here a lot. Personally I don't get it. There's plenty of other places to stick your money instead of a company that has proven to have an air of uncertainty which the individual has obviously misjudged. Unless you had the original plan of accumulating a very large amount that you couldn't purchase with one order, I don't see the point.
Is it actually a tactic from some sort of book that you have all read?

Balance

29-05-2014, 10:45 AM

I think I'm immune to paper losses now some of you would be frightened if you knew how much I'm sitting on:scared:

Let those who are panicking panic - that is the nature of the game.

Schrodinger

29-05-2014, 10:45 AM

This is not the first time you have been burned Couta. Maybe you should do the opposite of your intuition?

Not having a go, just trying to help =)

Harvey Specter

29-05-2014, 10:48 AM

Ditto holding tight with 50 k of them at $1.20 average buy in.

I think I'm immune to paper losses now some of you would be frightened if you knew how much I'm sitting on:scared:NOt exactly a secret. Or are you refer to all your paper loses.

Harvey Specter

29-05-2014, 10:49 AM

This is not the first time you have been burned Couta. Maybe you should do the opposite of your intuition?I am thinking of using Couta as an indicator.

couta1

29-05-2014, 10:49 AM

This is not the first time you have been burned Couta. Maybe you should do the opposite of your intuition?

Not having a go, just trying to help =)
No probs I'm sitting out the cycle I can't see anything fundamentally wrong with any of the companies I'm running losses on.

blocker3

29-05-2014, 10:49 AM

Traders bailing out and it's panic time.

I saw PEB as an investment, Balance not some quick trade.

Even investors have to do the hard thing.
Cheers

Wolf

29-05-2014, 10:50 AM

panics definitely here...

couta1

29-05-2014, 10:50 AM

[/COLOR]

NOt exactly a secret. Or are you refer to all your paper loses.
Referring to all of then not just PEB.

NZSilver

29-05-2014, 10:52 AM

hahahahaha panic is rife, enjoying this while I ignore the share price. The result was good in my opinion - we have a very scientifically sound medical product that is just begun its early stage of commercialisation, and we have sold tests. Who know what the future will bring but thats good enough for me this early on. Good things take time.

mbrook

29-05-2014, 10:56 AM

Balance

29-05-2014, 10:58 AM

Relax, guys.

If you believe the story, hold your faith.

I bought DIL at $1.00 (believing the story) and saw it plunged down to a low of 8c even while it was successfully executing its strategy.

Whitebeard

29-05-2014, 10:59 AM

Interview with DD on RNZ this morning.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/2597701

couta1

29-05-2014, 10:59 AM

WOW 700k shares traded, hardly a major sell-off :)
I am staying put and might take the opportunity to buy more. if I see institutions dumping their recently aquired 5% stakes, then I will follow.

What was the cause of the 12% upward spike on monday??
Good on you, this is a marathon not a sprint, anyone can sprint but only those with grit and tenacity can finish a marathon:cool:

bull....

29-05-2014, 11:00 AM

might have a look when it hits 55c

couta1

29-05-2014, 11:03 AM

might have a look when it hits 55c
Some people have bigger dreams than others:cool:

bull....

29-05-2014, 11:07 AM

Some people have bigger dreams than others:cool:

time will tell my friend

Harvey Specter

29-05-2014, 11:08 AM

What was the cause of the 12% upward spike on monday??The signed a new deal doubling their US coverage. Look at the announcements on NZX.com. Alot quicker than wading through the trash in here. ;)

couta1

29-05-2014, 11:08 AM

T please read post number 9041 for a different but equally valid strategy

Mista_Trix

29-05-2014, 11:10 AM

T please read post number 9041 for a different but equally valid strategy

The head in the sand strategy ;)

couta1

29-05-2014, 11:13 AM

The head in the sand strategy ;)
Head in the sand and making 2.5 times original investment will do just fine:cool:

Hoop

29-05-2014, 11:13 AM

Hi Meister.
Unfortunately my reply will not come across as fine and dandy...It will upset many...
Meister..Firstly lets clear up this trader notion....Whenever a stock falls the media blames the traders..thats true but the myth becomes apparent when the media labels TA traders as the bad guys causing the problems...Traders are in fact everyone buying and selling stock...we all dictate the price as a single group...if the majority that single group get negative then the price will fall back...
The make up of that single group is always changing...
As you can see on my chart below the experienced TA traders and chartists are long gone out of PEB they left about a month ago.

Unfortunately the traders now are the ones being scared out of PEB I suspect a lot of newbie investors are involved here.
When you get chart supports at round numbers e.g 70 120 160c...when you get blow offs and gaps and wild volatile pricing..this is not the traditional FA nor traditional TA investor driving this stock..The drivers are newbies & other undisciplined investors packed full of emotion looking to make quick easy money.....Unfortunately undisciplinced investors lack entry or exit strategies they lack investment skills they don't have an investment system in place with a set of personal rules and guidelines nor the discipline to enact it..This shows up very clearly on the chart below......

This has to be the most scariest chart I have ever seen.....The price is all over the place...and at the moment it is teetering a cliff edge with no more supports until 70c.......

All I can say is PEB narrowly dodged a bullet today...bottoming out at 1.04 on the weakest and last minor support....... geez...I had visions today of seeing it gap down to 70c

Self fulfilling prophesy....No No No ....PEB is full of emotional investors and at the moment they are very unpredictable and without discipline..
Fundamental excuses that this stock is "cheap" at 110..if thats true why is PEB looking like it should be in a mental institution...At this moment in time I would have to be insane to join in...eh?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB11042014.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB11042014.gif.html)

I posted this chart 48 days and 1970!!!! posts ago. (EDITED the above quote today...in bold letters)
To summerise: Lets hope todays 78 is the bottom and the 30% loss since my warning post
There was a bloody good TA reason!!! why I quoted(11th April) this as the most scariest stock on the NZX...it sickens me to read these posts of investors bailing out now...

Balance

29-05-2014, 11:14 AM

How many times was that said on the way from $1.75 to $0.8 I wonder? It's all well and good to say those who have sold are panicking, but some are probably sticking to a well thought out investment strategy and many of those that "panicked" and sold early, have saved them selves a world of pain. Many people "panicked" and sold at around the $1.20 to $1.50 range, remember? Doesn't seem so bad an option now huh. Strategies people strategies, make sure you have them. Then whatever happens, happens, but at least you cant look back with any regrets.

I actually agree with you 100%.

Just making the point that investing is not about rushing into a stock or panicking out - that's strictly for amateurs.

This is a high beta stock so expect wild swings until such time as institutional shareholders control the day to day pricing of the stock.

mbrook

29-05-2014, 11:15 AM

Yes I thought it was that ;) I have been following the news of PEB with great interest. They have a bright future.

mbrook

29-05-2014, 11:19 AM

An institution want to purchase 10 to 20 million shares. How do the market makers fill that order? By shaking the tree, wild movements in share price, spooking the ill informed private investor.
I'm just sad I missed to opportunity to buy when they were down 11c this morning :)

Copper

29-05-2014, 11:22 AM

How many times was that said on the way from $1.75 to $0.8 I wonder? It's all well and good to say those who have sold are panicking, but some are probably sticking to a well thought out investment strategy and many of those that "panicked" and sold early, have saved them selves a world of pain. Many people "panicked" and sold at around the $1.20 to $1.50 range, remember? Doesn't seem so bad an option now huh. Strategies people strategies, make sure you have them. Then whatever happens, happens, but at least you cant look back with any regrets.

A month or more back both Balance and myself posted that the share could, repeat could,come back to 60/65.That was back to where it started from.A bit like an Aussy mining stock.But as I see it now the Company will have to be making ten mill.inside two years or the cash will be running out,what with new staff in US and Spain etc and cash burn say the same as today.If the share price happens to be in the sixties,that's a lot of shares to be issued coupled with the possibility of being removed from the Index and Instos absent.I don't say this will happen but you have to have a strategy as Turmeric says. Just my most pessimistic side of things....

skid

29-05-2014, 11:23 AM

I saw PEB as an investment, Balance not some quick trade.

Even investors have to do the hard thing.
Cheers

When I bought in,it was an investment (not for trading) but nevertheless an exit strategy is a good thing if things go pear shaped.

I did the hard thing and sold----but Ill be keeping an eye on this baby

Joshuatree

29-05-2014, 11:32 AM

Mista_Trix

29-05-2014, 11:38 AM

It can be hard to go against the flow but i pay attention to a minority opposing view unless they are downrampers, trolls etc. So as my strategy of derisking my portfolio continues id like to thank Snapiti for his views on PEB ; it helped me dodge a bullet and take my profits off the table. Will watch for a reentry. Hope they come out with some good figs announcements soon to bring out the PEB potential.

I too derisked, I was lucky enough to take out all of my initial PEB investment (leaving the gains) at $1.68 (after getting in at $0.74) - totally luck, no skill, I was worried that I was to heavy on PEB, and it failed at that point several times, so I thought I'd get out and try again at another point, got in again at $1.02 for the announcement, took it all out at $0.92 (10% exit strategy). I will wait an see where the fluctuation lies, and maybe wiat until they get some numbers.

The risk previously was 'what if you miss an announcement', it seems to have been shown that these don't make as much impact as they used to without being backed by actual product sales.
So I will wait to enter again.

I feel a bit like I have to defend my tactics to HOOP who I think is spitting tacks, but there has been some method to my madness :-S