PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Dentie]

Interview with DD on RNZ this morning.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/2597701

Can I suggest a few of the panic stricken actually take the time to listen to this. After all DD is one of the main men making the levers work and he specifically mentions "the shareholders".

As I have said all along - I am holding these shares tightly and have been for the last 5 years. Am happy to give it at least another 12 months ... these people need time to do their thing .... yanks are a bit slow on the uptake from what I can see!

[couta1]

Can I suggest a few of the panic stricken actually take the time to listen to this. After all DD is one of the main men making the levers work and he specifically mentions "the shareholders".

As I have said all along - I am holding these shares tightly and have been for the last 5 years. Am happy to give it at least another 12 months ... these people need time to do their thing .... yanks are a bit slow on the uptake from what I can see!
Had a listen and story hasn't changed except the impatience of shareholders.

[mbrook]

DD says the right things. I see no reason for a mass exodus

[nextbigthing]

DD says the right things. I see no reason for a mass exodus

Words are cheap. Apparently sales are not.

[mbrook]

No sales without major marketing, and that does not come free!

[nextbigthing]

No sales without major marketing, and that does not come free!

Unfortunately my friend, no sales with major marketing in this case. :(

[goldfish]

DD says in this interview that the direct sales team on the ground approach is working very well.
Can someone please send him a another copy of the recently released sales report as it seems he may have spilled his latte over the last one and blurred the numbers. thanks
Never forget it is an inherent part of a CEO's role is to talk up the companies prospects(they all do it not just DD)

Yes it sounded like he was in denial to me. All is great the urologists love it, rightio then why hasnt there been ANY uptake from them over the last few months.

[nextbigthing]

Yes it sounded like he was in denial to me. All is great the urologists love it, rightio then why hasnt there been ANY uptake from them over the last few months.

Exactly. There may be a perfectly good explanation and I hope there is. However before this company gets more money from me, I'd like to hear it!

[goldfish]

Exactly. There may be a perfectly good explanation and I hope there is. However before this company gets more money from me, I'd like to hear it!

Thats what I was hopeing for a reasonable explanation from him.
Sadly all I see is denial.
Bliss
Rakon
Pac...Dare I say it? Nah not yet...Still early days.
Looking to get back in at 50 cents ish (for long term hold) and that depends on a few variables. Will happily trade all the way down there though, its a great traders stock, I dont know how you long termers do it, to much stress and worry for me, trade in, take profit or cut losses then get out, easy. I was hopeing that PEB was going to be a long term hold, but when you have huge profits built on hype your crazy not to to be honest.

[Schrodinger]

Thats what I was hopeing for a reasonable explanation from him.
Sadly all I see is denial.
Bliss
Rakon
Pac...Dare I say it? Nah not yet...Still early days.
Looking to get back in at 50 cents ish (for long term hold) and that depends on a few variables. Will happily trade all the way down there though, its a great traders stock, I dont know how you long termers do it, to much stress and worry for me, trade in, take profit or cut losses then get out, easy. I was hopeing that PEB was going to be a long term hold, but when you have huge profits built on hype your crazy not to to be honest.

Diversified portfolio, strict rules and avoid stuff I dont believe in. Seems to work.

Traders on the other hand..

[winner69]

this is entirely possible as a sales trajectory (IMHO)



2014
0.5


2015
1.5


2016
4.5


2017
13.5


2018
40.5


2019
121.5



Possible in view of slower uptake than most were hoping for

Stick those in my DCF and heck it comes out 65 cents (fiddle it a bit it gets to 75/80 cents) ....and that's all embedded in the terminal value as well

But I have no idea whatsoever what the ongoing expense base is going to be but it seems thy can't really afford to be less than the $10m they run at now

Just for CxBladder but only a brave man and supreme optimist would factor in any additional value or the commercialisation of new products

Just my view

[Dentie]

Thats what I was hopeing for a reasonable explanation from him.
Sadly all I see is denial.
Bliss
Rakon
Pac...Dare I say it? Nah not yet...Still early days.
Looking to get back in at 50 cents ish (for long term hold) and that depends on a few variables. Will happily trade all the way down there though, its a great traders stock, I dont know how you long termers do it, to much stress and worry for me, trade in, take profit or cut losses then get out, easy. I was hopeing that PEB was going to be a long term hold, but when you have huge profits built on hype your crazy not to to be honest.

hahaha...hindsight is always 20/20 goldfish...and "hype" is only a word that ONLY gets confirmed AFTER the sales figures are confirmed. For me, I would get too stressed giving money to the brokers each time you trade - not to mention the IRD folk ... if its declared of course.

[Balance]

If only some of the traders know who have been buying up PEB shares (large) in the last 2 days.

:D

[Harvey Specter]

If only some of the traders know who have been buying up PEB shares (large) in the last 2 days.

:DAre you saying you know?

[nextbigthing]

If only some of the traders know who have been buying up PEB shares (large) in the last 2 days.

:D

The Moosefund?

[Bobcat.]

If only some of the traders know who have been buying up PEB shares (large) in the last 2 days.

OK - you've got us curious, B. To make it easy for you not to breach trust, make any sort of response to this post only if it is NOT a PEB director.

[winner69]

Newguy said don't personally think that DD and the current board are up to the task. DD seems like a bit of a lad,

I've got red demerit points for saying that in the past ...so expect some more yourself.

When I asked what DD past experience was everybody obviously went off to LinkedIn, looked up his bios from all over the place

Best they could up was commercialising Arborgen

[skid]

It used to be ''heaps of potential and an announcement right around the corner''--now its ''theres institutions buying big''
I was hearing that at 1.05-1.10--not buying it anymore (with any due respect to you and your broker)

[BigBob]

If only some of the traders know who have been buying up PEB shares (large) in the last 2 days.

:D

Well, I have been buying today... So there you have it traders....! Mind you that's probably not what Balance is talking about.... oh, and it's hardly large....

[skid]

That I cannot deny!

Right I'm staying away from this thread until others learn to behave themselves. Two more red cards even though I tried to be more upbeat yesterday.

Ciao.

Its not red cards Moosie--just plain ole behind the scenes bullying--pay it no mind--(if your curious ,just look at who visited your profile and look for the poster who has been giving you the most flak and most strongly disagrees with your opinion and ''presto'')

[Meister]

Well, I have been buying today... So there you have it traders....! Mind you that's probably not what Balance is talking about.... oh, and it's hardly large....

Is now really the best time to buy? I feel it might drift lower over the coming months on no news and general angst, again. If you don't mind, what is your reasoning?

[Beagle]

The $64,000 question is where's the bottom ? If they're really worth $1.70 then they're currently on Macca's special, buy one, get one free.
Interested but chart says stay out...with little else to go on I for one will follow the technical signals and ignore all the hype.

[winner69]

Goldfish - disappointed in you

You mention Blis and Rakon but left Wellington Drive out

[Schrodinger]

Mad.......?

[goldfish]

If only some of the traders know who have been buying up PEB shares (large) in the last 2 days.

:D

Morningstar?

[goldfish]

The $64,000 question is where's the bottom ? If they're really worth $1.70 then they're currently on Macca's special, buy one, get one free.
Interested but chart says stay out...with little else to go on I for one will follow the technical signals and ignore all the hype.

Very wise, why buy now when the chances are extremely high that you can get them for cheaper in the future. The trend is your friend. I dont understand why anyone would be buying now, let the dust settle first, no hurry.

[Beagle]

Mad.......?

Looking at the chart the SP has been in a clear down-trend since mid January when it was $1.70 and after the announcement the other day its still continued. 100 day moving average is $1.40...people buying now clearly have no respect for technical analysis or they have a love for trying to pick the bottom, or both...go figure...

[youngatheart]

Does being in the nzx50 affect share price with tomorrow being the end of the month? is there likely to be a price rise?

[goldfish]

Correct... in my view TA gives no better results than purely random decision making.

In my view, since november TAers are sitting on piles of cash whereas buy n holders are sitting on huge losses or unrealised losses. I know what I prefer.

[Dentie]

Correct... in my view TA gives no better results than purely random decision making.

Agree with you. The charts are very accurate (& easy to predict) when you look left of the current performing candle....but I haven't met, seen or heard from anyone yet who can tell me what is going to happen starting from the next candle. A pattern is only a pattern (or not)...after the event.

If any TA guru's disagree, then please tell me what is going to happen with tomorrows candle - and why.

[Beagle]

Correct... in my view TA gives no better results than purely random decision making.

Mate, I've seen some brave statements on here but that one stands out as one of the more memorable ones. Good luck.

[nextbigthing]

Agree with you. The charts are very accurate (& easy to predict) when you look left of the current performing candle....but I haven't met, seen or heard from anyone yet who can tell me what is going to happen starting from the next candle. A pattern is only a pattern (or not)...after the event.

If any TA guru's disagree, then please tell me what is going to happen with tomorrows candle - and why.

To be fair, Bobcat pretty much nailed the last bounce at both the bottom and the top down to the last cent and had posted his intentions well prior to the fact. It was quite impressive.

[Beagle]

So suddenly clear down trends and momentum downwards mean nothing...and TA is useless...OKAY whatever...you gentelmen have a good day and good luck to you catching the falling knife at precisely the right point in time.

[nextbigthing]

There's a thread for TA versus FA and NZ stocks anyway. Let's try and keep this to robust debate about PEB and where it's heading. Avoid clogging the thread.

[Goldstein]

I thought I'd add an observation. There is a massive unknown with PEB at the moment, i.e., what is preventing the sales uptake in the US?

That being the case FA is currently useless regarding PEB.

Also remember that TA has seen other companies in a similar situation to that which PEB faces at the moment.

[skid]

Correct... in my view TA gives no better results than purely random decision making.

OK lets throw TA and FA out the window--Does this FEEL like a good time to be buying?-----(has anyone else noticed that .85 is 50% of 1.70)

[Dentie]

Lmao, I was going to post a chart up earlier showing the massive warning signals to sell but I won't now as apparently "TA is useless" and I will get red-carded all the way to a suspension.

My last trade on PEB i bought in @ $1.20 and sold at $1.68... using TA...

If you don't believe me that TA ain't useless, tune into 3 News around 6:30 and tell me what is up on the ASB reporters screen. I can guarantee you it ain't an FA sheet!

Laters

So Moosie - you bought in just above the close of the big red hammer and got out around the close of another red hammer? Based on this...and what I see on the chart right now, there seems a chance you may be back in tomorrow then?

[Dentie]

OK lets throw TA and FA out the window--Does this FEEL like a good time to be buying?-----(has anyone else noticed that .85 is 50% of 1.70)

haha...throw out TA then start talking about fibonnacci's

[baller18]

Mmmm well maybe its because their target market isn't GP's, rather its to actual Urologists who deal with bladder problems. If you have blood in your urine you will most likely be seeing a urologist either way.

If you actually bothered to read any of the company's news pieces, Investor presentations or comments then you would see that they are targeting Urology Groups / Practices.

yes, i know they are targeting urology groups, I am talking in a broader sense, giving Nz as an example. If Nz had 4 sales people in such a small country where they is only 40 - 50 urologists... You think a year would be enough. I am talking in the broader sense just getting the product out there...

yes u would see a urologist, we know that. But GP's do see a lot of patients with haemeturia, the more people know about the product the better. Once again, using Nz with a few urologists and a lot less doctors as an example, and possibly how it exactly translate to the states. Read between the lines....

[Whipmoney]

Looking at the chart the SP has been in a clear down-trend since mid January when it was $1.70 and after the announcement the other day its still continued. 100 day moving average is $1.40...people buying now clearly have no respect for technical analysis or they have a love for trying to pick the bottom, or both...go figure...


Or... why wait... if you think it is good value today... might or might not be cheaper tomorrow.


So suddenly clear down trends and momentum downwards mean nothing...and TA is useless...OKAY whatever...you gentelmen have a good day and good luck to you catching the falling knife at precisely the right point in time.


The old technical vs "buy and hold" debate.

Firstly, I'm in Black Knat's camp and think at around 85cents this isn't a half bad value play (note: Value investing is very different from simplying buying and holding - i.e. I did sell out at $1.60 when it was overvalued).

Secondly, yes I agree that the chart appears to have been in a down-trend since February but its the future that matters, not the past. Does the past represent a good proxy for the future share-price? Well maybe, but then again maybe not.

If you look at the charts, the down-trend somewhat represents a shifting psychology/sentiment and a reversion towards the company's underlying fundamental value which in reality/hindsight shouldn't be much more than it was in October last year).

Investors got carried away last October and numerous punters jumped into this share on the hype. Several exciting announcements helped bolster the share-price however whilst these were evidence that the company was achieving some success in their commercialisation process, they weren't an indictment that the company was making actual cash-sales.

Now that we've seen the numbers it is evident that the whole thing got blown way out proportion and that investors expectations were well out of alignment with reality. The cold hard truth has set in.

So where are we at out? Well if you follow TA (i'm not a chart reader so I don't know what they're saying!) then sure the stock could still be in a down-trend (which is probably is) at least until some time as a fundamental floor is established. This could be quite a wide range, I would expect somewhere between 70-90 cents.

That being said a down-trend is a down-trend until its not (otherwise all stocks in a down-trend will head to $0.0) and given that no-one can accurately pick the bottom everytime then our only choice is to stay out and watch or to jump back in at a fundamental value that you are happy with.

There is no right or wrong until hindsight proves one or the other - it all depends on your investment style and horizon.

Personally I prefer Black Knat's viewpoint as if you back the company fundamentally and they start achieving their milestones then the share-price will inevitably go up (from where it is now).

Final point: I hate to remind everybody but from the conversations I've had it seems it was only the FA'ers who were in this stock when it underwent its meteric rise from around 50c to $1.60.

I haven't had one TA'er yet confirm that they were in this thing prior to the big bang.

[baller18]

what do you see between the lines, baller? A failed venture, or an uptake rate that is not inconsistent with other innovative, medically-oriented products?


Put it this way, sparky the clown rated joe ditrollo as colin meads...
if joe ditrollo is so up there, which apparently he is, and he praises cxbladder much, wouldn't he been endorsing the product?mentioning it inservices, conferences and etc... Doesn't seem like the word has spread though? Also there was another urologist who praised cxbladder in the announcement. Are they still using it free? Too many unknown answers...
too many unknown answers as to how their sales strategy work.
if Nz has 40-50 urologists, wouldn't you think they would all know by know? They prob do.... They shouldn't they be targeting a diff population now.... Once again, using Nz as an example, as this prob translates the same in getting the product out there in USA.

[skid]

That being said a down-trend is a down-trend until its not (otherwise all stocks in a down-trend will head to $0.0) and givne that no-one can accurately pick the bottom everytime then our only choice is to stay out and watch or to jump back in at a fundamental value that you are happy with.

Good post WM -- but this paragraph is a little misleading--some shares drift lower and lower and then settle in an area and go sideways for ages.

Wouldnt it be better to buy back in when the SP starts closeing a bit higher each day,rather than lower? Seems a bit safer than trying to pick the bottom even though you are giving up some on the way up.

[baller18]

You alright there baller? not really sure what you are on about.
Talking about the awareness of the product black Knat, and how come sales have not gone throught if joe ditrollo and etc have praised cxbladder.

[Whipmoney]

"That being said a down-trend is a down-trend until its not (otherwise all stocks in a down-trend will head to $0.0) and given that no-one can accurately pick the bottom everytime then our only choice is to stay out and watch or to jump back in at a fundamental value that you are happy with."

1) Good post WM -- but this paragraph is a little misleading--some shares drift lower and lower and then settle in an area and go sideways for ages.

2) Wouldnt it be better to buy back in when the SP starts closeing a bit higher each day,rather than lower? Seems a bit safer than trying to pick the bottom even though you are giving up some on the way up.

Completely agree with point 1.

In response to point 2 are you suggesting that its safer (less risky) to buy a share that is edging upwards compared to one that is edging downwards?

Well that depends entirely on your perception of risk however if you've read the Intelligent Investor you would likely remember Graham's commentary on stocks de-risking as they go down in value.

It's a fairly simple proposition: Assuming that PEB's overall credit and business risk is fixed/the same, then all things being equal and at a given point in time it is less risky to buy PEB at 70cents (regardless of how its trending) than it is at say $1.00.

Why is this? Simple, its a function of risk/reward. Because if PEB collapses you are better off losing 70cents per share than $1.00 per share. Conversely, for the stock to go up 10% it need only climb 7 cents from 70c, but needs to climb 10cents from $1.

If all things are equal there is a lower propensity for downside at 70cents (than $1) and a higher potential upside.

So the argument about up-trends v down-trends is interesting in my book as I would rather buy PEB at 70cents than $1 on any given day.

[skid]

Completely agree with point 1.

In response to point 2 are you suggesting that its safer (less risky) to buy a share that is edging upwards compared to one that is edging downwards?

Well that depends entirely on your perception of risk however if you've read the Intelligent Investor you would likely remember Graham's commentary on stocks de-risking as they go down in value.

It's a fairly simple proposition: Assuming that PEB's overall credit and business risk is fixed/the same, then all things being equal and at a given point in time it is less risky to buy PEB at 70cents (regardless of how its trending) than it is at say $1.00.

Why is this? Simple, its a function of risk/reward. Because if PEB collapses you are better off losing 70cents per share than $1.00 per share. Conversely, for the stock to go up 10% it need only climb 7 cents from 70c, but needs to climb 10cents from $1.

If all things are equal there is a lower propensity for downside at 70cents (than $1) and a higher potential upside.

So the argument about up-trends v down-trends is interesting in my book as I would rather buy PEB at 70cents than $1 on any given day.

Me Too :)...

[baller18]

Duh!!!! Talking if joe ditrollo himself has actually paid for any tests himself and has spread the word at all..

[couta1]

Talk about a busy thread while I was at work see it finished 3c down for the day, earth shattering stuff aye,have a good evening folks:cool:

[MAC]

It is a growth stock with the first product off the rank at the very beginning of its product cycle.

One could argue that the smart money, on this thread that is clearly Barney, Hancock’s, Dentie, et al, compliment intended, that bought in a couple or more years ago, each presently with +350% to +750% gains so far at this early formative stage, may well say that PEB is in an uptrend which may well continue for several years.

[BIRMANBOY]

Totally agree....however if you stay with that logic its better to buy at 65 than 70 and then 60 at rather than 65 so the psychological battle is between fear of missing buying at a perceived good price and chance it could go lower still. As someone who has followed a dropping share buying periodically I have often kicked myself for not being more patient. Finding the bottom is easy for Kanye but difficult for most of us. I find looking at the number of buyers and sellers and the quantity of shares respectively can sometimes help identifying where the resistance is "currently" a week later maybe different again.
Completely agree with point 1.

In response to point 2 are you suggesting that its safer (less risky) to buy a share that is edging upwards compared to one that is edging downwards?

Well that depends entirely on your perception of risk however if you've read the Intelligent Investor you would likely remember Graham's commentary on stocks de-risking as they go down in value.

It's a fairly simple proposition: Assuming that PEB's overall credit and business risk is fixed/the same, then all things being equal and at a given point in time it is less risky to buy PEB at 70cents (regardless of how its trending) than it is at say $1.00.

Why is this? Simple, its a function of risk/reward. Because if PEB collapses you are better off losing 70cents per share than $1.00 per share. Conversely, for the stock to go up 10% it need only climb 7 cents from 70c, but needs to climb 10cents from $1.

If all things are equal there is a lower propensity for downside at 70cents (than $1) and a higher potential upside.

So the argument about up-trends v down-trends is interesting in my book as I would rather buy PEB at 70cents than $1 on any given day.

[Copper]

It's getting late in the day it's all,you said,I said ,he said ,and whether you ar FA or TA. Etc etc.From a person who does not know the highly technical stuff on charting and has limited financial acumen my tuppence worth is that the thing is starting to slow up on it's slide and we are looking at that 65/70 area where we started from.We may not get there but there is a possibility that region may be hit on a bad NASDAQ,bad weather and grumpy poster day,if only the final panic.My gut feeling is that a bid left in to buy around that level would not be a bad approach.If by chance you got some I think no one including Snapiti ,Moosie and Balance would think other than a reasonable gamble.....Just an opinion .cheers.

[Copper]

Grief that stopped the chatter.Do all the posters work and have now gone to catch a train or bus or BMW.Quite noticeable go home time coincides with posting decrease......

[BIRMANBOY]

Hah..maybe they are trying to catch up with all the work they should have been doing during trading hours. I'd be docking the pay if I still had staff. What with texting, FB, surfing the internet and following the share market amazing the country is still running:eek2:
Grief that stopped the chatter.Do all the posters work and have now gone to catch a train or bus or BMW.Quite noticeable go home time coincides with posting decrease......

[blackcap]

Currently cooking dinner for partner and sort of mother-in-law "

I feel very sorry for you... :)

[nextbigthing]

I feel very sorry for you... :)

I feel very sorry for the mother in law.

:D

Just kidding Moosie.

[Copper]

Great guys ....Even the total loss subjecters,Clinical analysts,BS posters ,No hopers ,cardiologists ,CX and CY followers and us have a few minutes of rest to start a new day tomorrow....only problem some posters seem to be on the late shift where I need some sleep.
Take care,breath in the fresh air ,reflect on your posts ,reflect again and tomorrow it may be all the same....cheers....

[Whipmoney]

Totally agree....however if you stay with that logic its better to buy at 65 than 70 and then 60 at rather than 65 so the psychological battle is between fear of missing buying at a perceived good price and chance it could go lower still. As someone who has followed a dropping share buying periodically I have often kicked myself for not being more patient. Finding the bottom is easy for Kanye but difficult for most of us. I find looking at the number of buyers and sellers and the quantity of shares respectively can sometimes help identifying where the resistance is "currently" a week later maybe different again.

I know what you mean and I agree that 65 is even better than 70. You probably get my point but it is that its less risky to buy a cheaper stock in a downtrend than to pay more in an uptrend.

I know that the likes of Hoop would disagree but in terms of the ultimate risk if she all goes belly up you have less to lose.

Btw that doesnt preclude you from buying in tranches to lower your Wapp. Either way nobody consistently gets the bottom right.

[Whipmoney]

Great guys ....Even the total loss subjecters,Clinical analysts,BS posters ,No hopers ,cardiologists ,CX and CY followers and us have a few minutes of rest to start a new day tomorrow....only problem some posters seem to be on the late shift where I need some sleep.
Take care,breath in the fresh air ,reflect on your posts ,reflect again and tomorrow it may be all the same....cheers....

Another day another lolly scramble.

[BIRMANBOY]

http://shutupandtakemymoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ipad-toilet-paper-holder-stand-300x250.jpg
Here you go moosie...available from Amazon..just for you.[:pQUOTE=moosie_900;483504]Don't be hating just because I can multi-task and I'm more in touch with my feminine side than you ;)[/QUOTE]

[Minerbarejet]

And still no reply from balance.

[nextbigthing]

Robbo, photoshop required...

[Copper]

And still no reply from balance.

I sense that Balance was buying in a very,very,very limited way just to say he is an investor.Its in his DNA. ....but an aside ,we are getting to a price where all the for and agins are getting close.Moosies problem with Mother in law etc and Snapiti going through a totally wet day on the Kapiti coast all add to the in depth analysis of this very complex problem .If Hancocks has a good day before the southerly then we may think this thing has a future.It in my opinion(?...) depends on whether the DD House car,possibly a BMW has the grunt to take us on a very fast ride to get some traction in this thing.....

[Balance]

And still no reply from balance.

Information is king and where we get our information from is just as critical - be them brokers, market, suppliers, clients etc. And it would be a gross breach of trust to share information passed on by those who have access to the infor.

I have replied to a few PMs and the replies go along the lines of : 'read a recent posting of mine regarding what is likely to happen when the results are announced. What is happening is consistent with that scenario.'

Minds cannot meet in a fog of words which is kinda what we have witnessed in the last few days.

Strip aside all the point scoring etc and I believe there are some very valuable takes :

1. Those who assert that only sales matter now are clearly on the mark - so well done.

2. The share price has fallen a long way, in line with 1 above.

3. Company is in an excellent position, having put in a lot of ground work and has cash in the bank, to attain sales - if indeed CxBladder has a place in the market.

If an investor has been keeping an eye on this stock and is looking for a good entry point, what would he/she do now?

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."

[Xerof]

I'm not expecting to see Balance publish the name. You can trust him to say the right thing with honest intent, or you can dismiss the comment as ramping. Over the years, I have come to respect Balances insights and wisdom, although we have held polarised perspectives on a few occasions!

I'll find out who's buying in due course, by doing my own research.

Has anyone run past D Darling's house to check on how the house alterations are going, seeing he sold in early March for that published purpose? A question for the post-AGM chit-chat perhaps

Oh ****, I see you have responded as I was typing Balance....oh well... snap...

[Copper]

Information is king and where we get our information from is just as critical - be them brokers, market, suppliers, clients etc. And it would be a gross breach of trust to share information passed on by those who have access to the infor.

I have replied to a few PMs and the replies go along the lines of : 'read a recent posting of mine regarding what is likely to happen when the results are announced. What is happening is consistent with that scenario.'

Minds cannot meet in a fog of words which is kinda what we have witnessed in the last few days.

Strip aside all the point scoring etc and I believe there are some very valuable takes :

1. Those who assert that only sales matter now are clearly on the mark - so well done.

2. The share price has fallen a long way, in line with 1 above.

3. Company is in an excellent position, having put in a lot of ground work and has cash in the bank, to attain sales - if indeed CxBladder has a place in the market.

If an investor has been keeping an eye on this stock and is looking for a good entry point, what would he/she do now?

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."

Balance on the side are you a university lecturer or the like...You have that accounting /auditing approach with knowledge IMHO that only someone that has that sort of experience in the real world has.Either that or you are a philosopher waiting to be grabbed by Simon Cowell as a possible winner of Investor of the Year.........May we continue the rapport.....cheers

[Minerbarejet]

You don't really expect Balance to publish the name, do you? You either trust him to say the right thing with honest intent, or you dismiss the comment as ramping. It's all part of the game and I take those sort of comments with a grain of salt, irrespective of who says it (no offence intended Balance)

I'll find out in due course.

Has anyone run past D Darling's house to check on how the house alterations are going, seeing he sold in early March for that published purpose? A question for the post-AGM chit-chat perhaps

Oh ****, I see you have responded as I was typing Balance....oh, well snap...
Not at all - was only commenting that Bobcats post was very cleverly worded and no response more or less verified it unless of course Balance hadn't seen it.

[Xerof]

sorry mate, wasn't meant to be a dig. I have edited my earlier post accordingly

[Beagle]

If an investor has been keeping an eye on this stock and is looking for a good entry point, what would he/she do now?

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."

Or wait until the downwards trend has played itself out, whereever that might leave the SP and buy in after a clear reversal of the trend, you know mate, its called risk mitigation using TA.

[Minerbarejet]

sorry mate, wasn't meant to be a dig. I have edited my earlier post accordingly
Noah Fence taken, xerof,
all good
Roll on tomorrow
Miner:)

[Bobcat.]

Agree with you. The charts are very accurate (& easy to predict) when you look left of the current performing candle....but I haven't met, seen or heard from anyone yet who can tell me what is going to happen starting from the next candle. A pattern is only a pattern (or not)...after the event.

If any TA guru's disagree, then please tell me what is going to happen with tomorrows candle - and why.

OK, I'll take the bait. A higher low tomorrow, followed by a higher high either Monday or Tuesday. I'd like to think that's an 'educated' guess...but the market has made me look foolish before, so it's but a guess.

Trading to it.

BC

[Copper]

Hmmm... I thought we had been through this. To be clear .... some of us don't believe in fairies. Picking the bottom is purely guesswork. My thinking here is to accumulate during a period when I think the share is good value. It may go lower which would be great because I haven't finished buying.

To be fair ... my average is still around 40c so I am not trying to average down.
That's very fair. Comment .

[golden city]

don't worry ..will be 50c soon haha

[Dentie]

OK, I'll take the bait. A higher low tomorrow, followed by a higher high either Monday or Tuesday. I'd like to think that's an 'educated' guess...but the market has made me look foolish before, so it's but a guess.

Trading to it.

BC

Certainly no bait intended BC. My point was simply that nobody knows what that next candle is going to do. But to be fair, you have been one of the better "guessers" and as a self confessed "on going" learner of TA, I do take notice of your posts.

Your prediction is logical based on the last few days trading, but as an investor I am also interested in the medium to longer term outlook for PEB and when this current down trend may be broken. FA tells me it will be as soon as CMS, Kaiser etc are confirmed followed by a significant uplift in sales whereas with TA, historically at least - your prediction (based on similar candle behaviour) has happened 3 times previously but the down trend has continued. So, picking the reversal of any trend is an absolute lucky guess...no matter what method is used. Although everyone trades differently, we are all rowing the same boat.

Now, let's see what today brings ....

[Minerbarejet]

And then there was this from our old buddy in Otago, - sounds positive at least
Pacific Edge focusing on expansion

Home (http://www.odt.co.nz/) » News (http://www.odt.co.nz/news) » Business (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business)
By Simon Hartley (http://www.odt.co.nz/history/65) on Thu, 29 May 2014News: Business (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business)

http://w.sharethis.com/images/check-big.png0 http://w.sharethis.com/images/check-big.png3 ShareThishttp://w.sharethis.com/images/check-small.png
Dunedin cancer diagnostic company Pacific Edge remains focused on expansion into its key United States market, having recorded its first North American revenue stream.
For its full year to March, Pacific Edge's revenue was up 187% to $523,000, with after-tax losses growing 44% from $6.9 million to $9.3 million, as expected; but with the company retaining $20.4 million cash in hand to fund expansion.
Earlier this week Pacific Edge signed its fourth diagnostic testing deal with a major US health provider, and with two more deals under negotiation, potentially covers half the American population via their health providers.
While Pacific Edge has now booked total losses of $43.88 million during the past decade, chief executive David Darling remains adamant gross annual revenues of $100 million are ''readily attainable'' by the end of its fifth full year of trading.
''We've got a growing list of customers and remain very close to budget,'' Mr Darling said when contacted yesterday.
Pacific Edge's mainstay product is its diagnostic non-invasive CX bladder test, which is much cheaper than conventional tests, and it is developing variations on this test and also doing research into colorectal cancer.
Pacific Edge shares traded down 6c to 91c following yesterday's announcement.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said the $9.3 million loss was anticipated and the company was ''maintaining a strategic plan, and running to it''
''If Pacific Edge take CX bladder [development] elsewhere to other forms of cancer detection, that could be very big for them,'' Mr McIntyre said.
Mr Darling said the roll-out of services in the US had been the dominant component of Pacific Edge's commercialisation programme, and would remain so this financial year in order to build scale.
''As part of this we will be rapidly growing our US sales team and ramping up our sales efforts in the USA,'' he said.
''Significant funds'' would be used during the year to increase customer numbers, particularly the ''high volume user groups'', which were practices of 40 or more urologists.
As an example of increasing scale, he said in New Zealand there were about 40 urologists, compared with several practices across the US with 40-50 urologists per practice.
For the year to March, foreign exchange gains of $571,000 were booked, compared with a $33,000 loss a year earlier; with this year's foreign exchange gain larger than the $523,000 revenue.
When asked, Mr Darling said for a New Zealand company looking to repatriate funds the company had '' a very well defined, and sophisticated'' hedging strategy in place.
He declined to give an update on actual test numbers, since they began in the US in the second half of 2013, or to provide any guidance on expectations for the current year.
He said pricing per test ''varied hugely'' given different subsidies available and to divide revenue by the number of tests did not give an accurate picture.

[skid]

Currently cooking dinner for partner and sort of mother-in-law (not married) to atone for my recent sins on this thread.

"Forgive me oh Clowniest Father, for I have sinned..."

Doneth worrieth mossie the redith cardith donith meanith squatith in heaven

[BigBob]

US markets up last night. Bounce off 78 yesterday on high volume says a retest of 90 is on the cards today with a push it a slight chance. A buy here with a sell near the MA5 of 94 would noy go amiss. However, longer term I am bearish, so dead cat bounce it shall be.

You heard it here first ;)

I think we will blast through to 95 and am calling the bottom in the 75-78 range.... A failure to take out 95 - 100 could see us back at 75-78, where the support level could give us a double bottom, or result in the stock ranging for a while...

[Balance]

US markets up last night. Bounce off 78 yesterday on high volume says a retest of 90 is on the cards today with a push it a slight chance. A buy here with a sell near the MA5 of 94 would noy go amiss. However, longer term I am bearish, so dead cat bounce it shall be.

You heard it here first ;)

Moosie, no point watching - this is one great trading stock so get into the rhythm.

Meanwhile, have a look at Serko's prospectus - Chairman buying $1m worth of shares at same level as investors in the IPO, and directors' shares and senior executives' are locked up until 2016.

Compare and contrast that with Snakk.

[skid]

It is a growth stock with the first product off the rank at the very beginning of its product cycle.

One could argue that the smart money, on this thread that is clearly Barney, Hancock’s, Dentie, et al, compliment intended, that bought in a couple or more years ago, each presently with +350% to +750% gains so far at this early formative stage, may well say that PEB is in an uptrend which may well continue for several years.

I think one of those is having second thoughts Mac--He sounded pretty disappointed with the results (and he probably knows the company better than any one.) Ive always respected his input and respect even more his being ''straight up'' with his viewpoint.
No one can accuse him of being in one camp or the other.

[Balance]

I think one of those is having second thoughts Mac--He sounded pretty disappointed with the results (and he probably knows the company better than any one.) Ive always respected his input and respect even more his being ''straight up'' with his viewpoint.
No one can accuse him of being in one camp or the other.

Hear hear.

[skid]

One thing that I cant shake off is that day when the big co. came on board and the SP started at 1.10 and crashed down to .99--Im not saying its insider trading ,but it sure seems like some one knew something.

[Minerbarejet]

Those flamingoes I sent you , Moosie , are not to be considered as red cards:)

[Casino]

Sure, sales of CertNDx went from $1 million in their first year (which looks like this will not be achieved by PEB who have a better test, mind) to $14 million two years later with CMS coverage (until it was removed around 2013).

That's not bad but if PEB follow a similar path, we can expect $14 million of sales in 2 years with CMS coverage. Not sure about you, but I don't think that sort of possible sales in 2 years supports the almost $300 million market cap we currently have, in my book. I shudder to think of any applicable ratio currently to value the company.

I think people need to switch from "This has HUGE potential" mindset to cold hard facts of sales numbers, profit/loss margins etc when they assess this company now. While they may be only in their first year, they appear to have a fairly revolutionary product that they can't sell. That's less than good in my books and smells a bit funny. They seem to have the right people set up in the states, the right product, gaining the right accreditations and deals, but can't sell. Why? What is the block? If they are honest about it, they should tell us what this is.

Going from 1m over 4m to 14m puts it on an exponential trajectory and that would support high valuations. On that note, there was an interesting development in regards to certndx:

http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/showthread.php?p=5073274


But like you said, it would be nice to hear why CMS coverage has not come through yet and get more details about the user programme.

[Minerbarejet]

Cms coverage was not expected to be completed before aug 2014. However, you never know it could be here today.

[Casino]

Cms coverage was not expected to be completed before aug 2014. However, you never know it could be here today.

Swann welcomed Obama-care, but the legislative changes mean Pacific Edge has to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, though he is hopeful it will be through early next year.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639

[JimHickey]

The thing I will be looking for in the full Annual Report is the number of tests conducted on trials (i.e wont be reported as revenue as they dont collect a fee). This is far more important than actual sales at this point imo.
Id be much happier seeing 200 sales and 5000 user tests than 2000 sales and 0 user tests for example. This would also indicate the demand that CS is talking about.

If the user tests is poor I would need to re-evalute my position.

EDIT: a lot of tin foil hats in here.

[nextbigthing]

Swann welcomed Obama-care, but the legislative changes mean Pacific Edge has to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, though he is hopeful it will be through early next year.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639

Given this was a 2013 article, early next year has been and gone. Sales not really there, is there something we should know?

[Wolf]

Snapiti can you expand on what smoke and mirrors is?
Appreciate your views

cheers

[Dentie]

So does anyone have any ideas why sales have not already eventuated from the user programs that were completed 6-9 months ago.Those user programs have already involved several thousands of tests.

Gee, you disappoint me Snap....I thought you would know this - in fact I was depending on it.

[Mista_Trix]

@ the feeling towards Snapiti generally.

Confirmation bias - is the tendency of people to favour information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.

I found your points and repetition incredibly frustrating until PEB broke the rules I was playing by and I pulled out (wait till it settles and at least starts trending upwards, I will miss the initial gains, but hey, I can sleep at night).

I will happily say I was probably looking for information that confirmed my own beliefs and found yours very irritating - as it did not match mine.
But now I'm out, I find your opinions much easier to swallow, funny that (definition above). The same is probably happening to a lot of people here. :-S

[Goldstein]

One handicap to the uptake of tests could possibly be the insurance aspects i.e. perhaps if we had 100% of medical insurance coverage, there may have been a lot more; I assume the tests undertaken were not paid for by the customer.

What is the demographic of the patients’ insurance coverage that Pacific Edge has obtained?

That's a very good point. If a patient's medical insurance covers it would most urologists opt for the gold-standard biopsy?

[blackcap]

Attempt to silence someone? LOL, talk about narcissism.

Ok, so the timeline for reaching $100 million has been pushed out by possibly 12 months.

That is actually quite material if you put that and also further growth/projections into a DCF.

[Balance]

She's a rough road commercializing any new product, especially a disruptive product.

I get the sense that some posters here think it is a walk in the park which it never was.

Meantime, keep an eye on who's taking the opportunity to buy the stock.

Will be revealed in around 2 weeks' time.

[couta1]

She's a rough road commercializing any new product, especially a disruptive product.

I get the sense that some posters here think it is a walk in the park which it never was.

Meantime, keep an eye on who's taking the opportunity to buy the stock.

Will be revealed in around 2 weeks' time.
Very true Balance and those of us that work in the medical field know just how hard it is to break into the old boys network, like chipping a large rock away with a wood chiesel.

[Tsuba]

snapiti - I have already declared my significant holding. That doesn't invalidate my request to please say something new or just leave it for a bit. The thread gets very boring and tedious to navigate when the same people keep saying the same thing over and over and over...

I agree. Me thinks some people need to get a life.

[skid]

For the record - I find the repetition boring regardless of whether it supports my investment position or not.

My professional reputation is grounded in being clear and concise. I just wish others could do the same sometimes. :cool:

I think thats the point he's making (about not being clear and concise about the sales-that PR statement was pretty good cock up)

[skid]

Very true Balance and those of us that work in the medical field know just how hard it is to break into the old boys network, like chipping a large rock away with a wood chiesel.

Is that a yea or a nay?

Not sure about others but Im finding all this ''all will be revealed'' cloak and dagger stuff a bit much.

If you've got insider information ,lets hear it--otherwise its just games as you play the market.

[Minerbarejet]

For goodness sake the 100 million is not the :)wholly grayle :)- its only a guesstimate and far too much is made of it. They have said some time ago that it was a median figure because they did not know the uptake rate. Once the uptake rate is known, the most accurate being next May then proper guidance can be issued. Show me the first full year results as a guideline not some startup numbers for a few months based on initial market penetration.
Cheers
Miner

[couta1]

Is that a yea or a nay?

Not sure about others but Im finding all this ''all will be revealed'' cloak and dagger stuff a bit much.

If you've got insider information ,lets hear it--otherwise its just games as you play the market.
Not quite sure where your coming from skid, I was simply highlighting how resistant medical specialists are at taking up new products based on my personal dealings with them and knowing the kind of attitudes many of them have, you should know by now I don't play games,cheers

[psychic]

One handicap to the uptake of tests could possibly be the insurance aspects i.e. perhaps if we had 100% of medical insurance coverage, there may have been a lot more; I assume the tests undertaken were not paid for by the customer.

What is the demographic of the patients’ insurance coverage that Pacific Edge has obtained?

But this was my earlier point. We don't yet have ANY Insurers covering the test do we? CMS and private insurance coverage will follow Urologist endorsement following trials. My hope is that tbis is not too far away....

[skid]

Not quite sure where your coming from skid, I was simply highlighting how resistant medical specialists are at taking up new products based on my personal dealings with them and knowing the kind of attitudes many of them have, you should know by now I don't play games,cheers

Sorry I wasnt being very clear--I was referring to the post you were responding to (by Balance)

In terms of your post I was only saying that your post could be taken as a positive or negative--time will tell----sorry for the misunderstanding:)

(trying to cover to many bases in one post):)

[couta1]

Sorry I wasnt being very clear--I was referring to the post you were responding to (by Balance)

In terms of your post I was only saying that your post could be taken as a positive or negative--time will tell----sorry for the misunderstanding:)

(trying to cover to many bases in one post):)
No probs Skid as a long termer i was thinking in a positive light albeit a tough road to travel along:cool:

[Goldstein]

But this was my earlier point. We don't yet have ANY Insurers covering the test do we? CMS and private insurance coverage will follow Urologist endorsement following trials. My hope is that tbis is not too far away....

It begs the question - who is ordering the US tests?

Is it GPs? If so, who is ultimately paying for it?

[Minerbarejet]

poor attempt to try and discredit what I have to say(I hope you are not a lawyer)
simple reality.....it is not hard to wind up some people on this thread especially when pointing out the facts.
Play the ball not the player or this thread will go down hill even further.
While we are on the subject of pointing out facts perhaps I could point out the fact that the facts you are pointing out are in fact facts as you have elected to interpret them in fact. These may in fact differ from facts as observed by other persons, in fact, this may account for the differences of opinion. The points pointed out have in fact been taken on board so there is no point to many more factual statements, in fact.
Have a nice day:)

[Whipmoney]

LOL so it is ok for the bulls to continue to make positive assumptions and defend the unknown because that's what you want to hear.
But it is not ok for a realist to point out further smudging, smoke and mirrors, rhetoric or classic back tracking for what it is.
Please consider I have been very accurate to date on seeing things for what they are.
I have not mentioned this clear back tracking before.
You must have money in the shares to attempt to silence some one pointing out the ongoing game that is being played.
I fell a red card coming.

If you were so on the money then why did you keep holding through this period?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

what was his strategy? Knowingly lose money by holding a stock whose demise he so publicly detailed? Good strategy. Must remember that one.

It's clearly working better than your strategy at present is it not?

[Minerbarejet]

what was his strategy? Knowingly lose money by holding a stock whose demise he so publicly detailed? Good strategy. Must remember that one. Demise? We aint dead yet, not by a long shot.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If you are going to go down that track then maybe you should compare Snap's net profit on PEB vs yours..... My point is that none of that is relevant when you are debating the validity and accuracy of Snap's commentary and analysis on PEB.

Snap is just getting told off because lots of people are very bitter about their PEB investment being half the value of what it was several months ago. Throw in one or two big egos of certain people here and there's nothing more to it really.

[winner69]

Key input into future forecasts and DCF is what is PEB expenses going to be like.

Since they begun getting serious about commercialising their stuff expenses have moved from $3.4m in 2011 to $4.7m in 2012 to $7.4m in 2013 to the latest $10.8m for 2014

Still need more sales people and more marketing so assumption expenses are going to further increase.

I have no idea by how much but have assumed $14m in 2015 and then to $16m in 2016 and then staying steady from that point in time. Maybe when things are up and running and real sales being made the expense base may shrink but they may use those savings to develop new products.

What do you guys think PEB need to have in the way of an expense base to succeed. (Don't worry about cost of sales as I have assumed a gross msrgin in my workings). Is the $24m or $16m I mentioned too high? Maybe not enough?

[Minerbarejet]

Do you actually still think I'm Brighton Early?Here comes the bottle of wine again:)

[ziggy415]

will you have openly said you are so I am happy to take you on your word.
love the banter ...learning heaps...remember if you cant afford to loose dont gamble....and this stock is a gamble....go for the safe and true...buy nzog...the next big move up is coming:t_up:

[Sgt Pepper]

love the banter ...learning heaps...remember if you cant afford to loose dont gamble....and this stock is a gamble....go for the safe and true...buy nzog...the next big move up is coming:t_up:

NZOG ...Why?

[Balance]

NZOG ...Why?

Because Ziggy415 needs it desperately to move up.





Haha :D

[Whipmoney]

To be fair, he (Snapiti) had a strategy, and as far as I can see he was transparent about it, and stuck to it as well. But why he did what he did (whilst maybe odd to some) is largely irrelevant to the fact that he has pretty much been on the money with this stock in his commentary on it.

I disagree. If he was "on the money" then he would have actually acted on his strategy instead of retaining to hold whilst down-ramping. I would suggest that by holding through the drop from $1.70 odd to sub $1 he is somewhat "out of the money".

[Bobcat.]

...meanwhile, with just an hour to go, it looks like the sp is holding up well enough to close with a higher intraday low than yesterday's. If it then goes on to produce a higher intraday high on Monday or Tuesday, that will be technically bullish; if however its highs get progressively lower then of course the bears are in control.

Discl: now holding a small parcel but looking to buy more once we get a daily-high breakout.

[ziggy415]

exactly my point, whipmoney.

"Hey guys, check out my strategy. I could have sold out at $1.70, but I chose to wait until the price dropped 56% to 95 cents. Pretty awesome, huh?"

Looks like a tui billboard to me...
are u still holding new guy

[Snow Leopard]

Key input into future forecasts and DCF is what is PEB expenses going to be like....
....Is the $24m or $16m I mentioned too high? Maybe not enough?

$14m then $16m sounds OK with me - same sort of number which I was thinking of for my updated model.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[ziggy415]

yes, I'm in for the long haul.
as long as u can sleep at nite thats all that matters....snapi is the same so i cant see a problem...must admit tho sales were a tad low so here,s hoping for next update

[Dentie]

ziggy I think you should delete that post please.

aye aye to that!! Disgusting comment to make

[youngatheart]

...meanwhile, with just an hour to go, it looks like the sp is holding up well enough to close with a higher intraday low than yesterday's. If it then goes on to produce a higher intraday high on Monday or Tuesday, that will be technically bullish; if however its highs get progressively lower then of course the bears are in control.

Discl: now holding a small parcel but looking to buy more once we get a daily-high breakout.

It'll be Tuesday BC as Monday is a Public Holiday...

[nextbigthing]

Reading this thread is like watching a dog chase its tail sometimes.

[ziggy415]

ziggy I think you should delete that post please.
oops sorry guys..was tongue in cheek but cant delete because i dont know how

[GR8DAY]

oops sorry guys..was tongue in cheek but cant delete because i dont know how


.....dont worry yourself ZIGGY, some of us here have a sense of humour ...(even if it is a little black at times)

[ziggy415]

Edit post on the blue line by reply options there and select delete activate button and delete post
think i done it...i cant see it

[Mista_Trix]

oops sorry guys..was tongue in cheek but cant delete because i dont know how

Just keep in mind people have posted here about family members using CX bladder ... you never quite know how close the skin comments like that may shave.

:)

[simla]

Hey, cut these guys some slack maybe? Patients lives are at risk for cancer. People sue people a lot in America. Maybe doctors aren't all going to dump their existing tests overnight? Maybe PEB can't control that?

Same problem in Blis. Market penetration takes time, but everyone says I want it now, now, now. Takes time.

Have investors asked what profit they are looking for, and when, to justify the current price?

[skid]

US markets up last night. Bounce off 78 yesterday on high volume says a retest of 90 is on the cards today with a push it a slight chance. A buy here with a sell near the MA5 of 94 would noy go amiss. However, longer term I am bearish, so dead cat bounce it shall be.

You heard it here first ;)

Well,Moosie--it looks like a rise in the Nasdaq was not enough to revive this Puppy to those levels--to much working against it ATM.

[Beagle]

The barking and snapping at Snapati is well and truly OTT in my opinion...he's just trying to post some objective thoughts for goodness sake...some people seem very bitter with losses and far too ready to let the dogs off the leash at anything that doesn't line up with their theories. Another day, another reduction in the SP, (notwithstanding favourable press and possible end of month window dressing evident in other parts of the market), as predicted by TA and the ongoing steady downward trend since January 2014 which is readily apparent to anyone who can read a chart. Disc, still sitting on the sidelines keeping my powder dry and completly intact.
You guys do realise that ~$20m cash won't last long and another capital raising will be coming up in the medium term.

[skid]

Hey, cut these guys some slack maybe? Patients lives are at risk for cancer. People sue people a lot in America. Maybe doctors aren't all going to dump their existing tests overnight? Maybe PEB can't control that?

Same problem in Blis. Market penetration takes time, but everyone says I want it now, now, now. Takes time.

Have investors asked what profit they are looking for, and when, to justify the current price?

I think some think we could have been a bit more well informed, Simla-there was an unfortunate PR slip that rose expectations,but having said that,the astronomical rise in the SP was really the result of us shareholders,so your right on that count.
Your a patient guy,next door on the BLT thread:)

[skid]

The barking and snapping at Snapati is well and truly OTT in my opinion...he's just trying to post some objective thoughts for goodness sake...some people seem very bitter with losses and far too ready to let the dogs off the leash at anything that doesn't line up with their theories. Another day, another reduction in the SP, (notwithstanding favourable press and possible end of month window dressing evident in other parts of the market), as predicted by TA and the ongoing steady downward trend since January 2014 which is readily apparent to anyone who can read a chart. Disc, still sitting on the sidelines keeping my powder dry and completly intact.
You guys do realise that ~$20m cash won't last long and another capital raising will be coming up in the medium term.

UH OH--talk like that on this thread and some ones likley to throw a match on all that dry powder roger:):)
(kidding of course)

[Beagle]

UH OH--talk like that on this thread and some ones likley to throw a match on all that dry powder roger:):)
(kidding of course)

No problem mate, Its all surrounded by a good flame suit :D

[simla]

Hi Simla, I’m a supportive shareholder who has asked the company a few questions; I want to be an informed investor.

Wasn't meaning you in particular, sorry. Referring to HUNDREDS of posts over the last couple of days, most of which seem to think things should be better!


Your a patient guy,next door on the BLT thread:)

Oh, yes! I'm a patient guy! But I think it will pay off for both BLT and PEB in the end. They both sell excellent products and are both pretty organised to get out to market. But I find the NZ market pretty unforgiving - huge rises followed by disillusionment - when mostly it's just a matter of time, and - yes - expecting unexpected set backs on the way. The current PEB share price might prove an issue yet with people in a hurry maybe? Even ATM is showing a PE of 503 currently, and they ARE showing a profit.

Good things take time.

[Beagle]

Here we go.....

Seriously though I'm calling a truce. Have a good weekend everyone... I'm off to oz for the first time in a number of years with the family, looking foward to it.

Ohhhh...I'm so disappointed, I was looking forward to you reminding me technical analysis is completly useless :p
Full disclosure, I patted this woofer years ago when it did a capital raising at 25 cents...and they were talking really big back then, these days I have three dogs with fur that are very cute, those are the sort of woofers I like, in the kennell not in my portfolio. Time will tell if they can ever make a profit, I guess its safe to say I'm a sceptic. Accountants are a strange breed, they have a propensity to expect a real profit within a reasonable period of time...the talk will keep coming so they can do future capital raisings, that's my prediction. Only the passage of a significant period of time will show whether I'm right or wrong and in the meantime all we really have too go on is technical analysis :D

[geo]

Concur, same investment time frame here; no need for knee jerk, the surprise is not so much where the price is now, but where it was ...... not that I was complaining of course!


Hancocks You started this thread in 2005 cant understand when you say your investment time frame is around 5 years?

[geo]

aha, good point; perhaps i should have said i review continuously but cannot see out further than a five year horizon.

good sidestep.

[geo]

Just keep in mind people have posted here about family members using CX bladder ... you never quite know how close the skin comments like that may shave.

:)

Just keep in mind most posters on thread say 99.9% invested solely to make money.

[klid]

I thought this was interesting, PEB ad XRO in comparison:
5882

[Copper]

I thought this was interesting, PEB ad XRO in comparison:
5882
It's the last little bit that counts after the announcements.....

[Dentie]

Very interesting klid. Shows how much of PEB's recent sp action has simply reflected general bio/tech stock sentiment rather than the sentiment about PEB itself

Totally agree. The percentage of investors/traders who are prepared to "go against the tide" compared to those who are just happy to "swim with the shoal" is very low. It is a classic "safety in numbers" mentality unfortunately but it is my experience that - when investing your money - the shoal may not always be the most profitable place to be. The growth/biotech tide has waned (for now) unfortunately, so once the momentum starts ....

But, when the fundamentals haven't changed - and others are fearful (due only to the shoal mentality) ... one can set up a nice retirement portfolio. I wonder if Westpac, Salt & other biggish funds have a Kiwisaver portfolio?

ooooppps...forgot the obligatory disclaimer ...DYOR

[nextbigthing]

Dentie, I would argue that to an extent, through lack of sales the fundamentals have changed. I think it's an excellent product, but if people aren't going to use it then.....
You still seem quite bullish on the stock. What is your explanation for what is a very poor uptake on such a great product? The low uptake given the amount spent on promotion concerns me. Perhaps they're not going to change the status quo. Anyone who has read my previous posts will know I think this is/was an amazing product and a great investment (ethically and financially) however as Hancocks has alluded to, they still need to justify themselves. The lows sales, high spend (with more to come) and lack of information hasn't done it for me.
Interested to hear your thoughts as to why you're not concerned and whether you're confident it's because xyz reason etc or whether you're just hoping they'll get there based on a great product.

Cheers, NBT

[klid]

Look at the spike in October. It makes me wonder, because I always thought the initial spike was purely over the deals announced, however I have obviously been giving that too much credit for the SP rise ;)

[skid]

Wasn't meaning you in particular, sorry. Referring to HUNDREDS of posts over the last couple of days, most of which seem to think things should be better!



Oh, yes! I'm a patient guy! But I think it will pay off for both BLT and PEB in the end. They both sell excellent products and are both pretty organised to get out to market. But I find the NZ market pretty unforgiving - huge rises followed by disillusionment - when mostly it's just a matter of time, and - yes - expecting unexpected set backs on the way. The current PEB share price might prove an issue yet with people in a hurry maybe? Even ATM is showing a PE of 503 currently, and they ARE showing a profit.

Good things take time.



With all due respect Simla,when I first had a look at BLT some years back, it was trading around .12-Its now trading at around .2--It may be a good product ,but I dont think many investors would be keen to follow PEB down that road (if it came to pass) I think that is what Hancock was alluding to in his post.--It could be an expensive mistake not to have some healthy caution at this stage IMO

Good Luck with BLT (been looking better of late)

[barney]

As MAC has always alluded to the training of the Cxbladder sales people takes months; I did not necessarily agree with that, but I was wrong. The advertisements for PEDUSA seemed to be looking for well qualified people with a diagnostics background and I thought they would have just had a bit of a refresher! (a couple of weeks)

They are very selective, so obviously there is a big investment there (sales team). This is good, I really only want credibility in the sales team. (first impressions and all that)

The first salesperson was on the ground in July and 3 others were recruited over the next 4 months (July to November) so with getting to grips with their sales territories and the necessary training (then Christmas period) didn’t leave much in the way of selling time. (Compressed time frame > ramp).

Yes, Pacific Edge are proposing an update for investors, I hope for early June.

The uptake from ‘User Program’ to commercial relationship is very successful; but the typical urologist doesn’t just abandon his practices of years and the product is typically introduced progressively – there is a ‘test drive’ period as they get their head around the test and what it can really do for them. It is not instantly adopted into the full clinical pathway and may be used in different parts of the pathway depending on the urologist’s initial requirements.

The marketing strategy involves 'User Programs' of smaller sizes than originally set-up, I like this idea because the recipient benefits from a financial and intellectual commitment by Pacific Edge to their business, they are not just hocking off the test.

Thanks Hancocks. It's good to see some sanity return to the thread, after it seems to me, to have developed into something akin to talkback radio.

[simla]

I dont think many investors would be keen to follow PEB down that road

I'm absolutely sure they wouldn't! It's been a very tough road as a shareholder of BLT. But what virtually nobody seems to have noticed is that it was the shareholders themselves that made this very tough. If everyone hadn't been avoiding BLT like the plague - because it wasn't going to make a profit in the next 12 to 24 months - then the share price would not have plummeted, and capital raising would have been at a high price and not very diluting either. The company would also have had more cash and would be advancing more quickly.

BLT itself has actually only been set back by a couple of years in it's plans (post new CEO) which really isn't big bickies to me, and shouldn't be for PEB now either. But too many shareholders didn't like that any more than they are currently reacting to PEB just now.

My "favourite" illustration of this is Botry Zen. August 2010: "Last December, for the second time in 15 months, Botry Zen's long-suffering shareholders refused to inject $1.5 million of new capital into the cash-strapped venture, prompting its board to ask financier BNZ to appoint a receiver. " http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/122084/botry-zen-sold-owner-zentech

Oh, but wait. Botry Zen is doing fine. http://www.botryzen.co.nz/ The shareholders created their own misfortune by not standing behind the company when it needed them. But they lost, not the enterprise itself.

I'm not trying to be critical of people. I'm just saying that the NZ share market seems to be relatively ignorant of the need for long term views on new companies, and really, really short of people willing to invest on that basis. I am so very grateful to the small number of shareholders in BLT who, like me, have stood the pressure over the years. That willingness to stand our ground looks likely to be rewarded fairly soon. Sure hope so! And it really is a great feeling to have helped with the birth of an enduring enterprise (as I hope BLT is about to be.)

I don't see any reason why PEB won't prosper too. But it probably isn't going to be next week, and I feel that shareholders might be doing themselves a favour by standing their ground here too. I'm not sure how many PEB shareholders are of that frame of mind, however.

It goes without saying (maybe) that most of the famous investors have a "buy and hold" strategy. So it can actually pay off too.

Disc: I have interests in PEB via a fund, but not directly, not quite my sort of company.

[nextbigthing]

I guess a positive that can be taken from this is that it would appear they're taking their time and doing it properly (proper training etc) rather than just rushing in and blowing their chances. That deserves credit. However what's the financial cost of this? It'd be great to be self sustaining before they burn $20 mil. Hopefully all will be cleared up soon.

[MAC]

There’s a big picture view too;

It's a top down approach, PEB have told us thus in there presentations, first the network providers must be on board, then the HMO's and insurers associated with those network providers, then some academic and procedural policy support from the LUG's, then sales folk making direct approaches to urologist practices, and then GP approaches.

This whole process has 12 to 24 months written on it to me, and we are only 7 months or so into it

The commercials and pricing contracts must be in place first, there is no point banging on a urologists door just to hear the same thing over again "great tech, absolutely want to use it, but my patients can't yet claim for it, but they can claim for cytology and/or NMP22".

A few weeks back I went to the dentist for an extraction, needed a filling too while I was about it, the dentist suggested amalgam rather than a composite filling as the insurers don't cover composite. And, they were right, my insurer didn’t cover it, $405 thanks very much.

Once the insurers start to demand their one third reduction in work up costs, and urologists can use cxbladder knowing patient costs are covered, or mostly covered, this is the time PEB sales will take off in earnest.

It’s negotiation stage right now and will be for a few months, all negotiations seem to be running in parallel at present, Medicare, HMO’s, insurers, and user programme roll overs. These contracts may well start to come to fruition all at a similar time also.

In this context, from a long term investors perspective, noting traders see matters differently, sales figures at this early stage are relatively unimportant in the big picture.

It’s the strategic roll sequence and schedule that is important. I’m focused more on this for now as an investor, and there is some evidence of a slide which I’m watching, I’m not overly concerned just yet, but I would like some more information.

Looking forward to the AGM now, question time will be interesting.

[Dentie]

Dentie, I would argue that to an extent, through lack of sales the fundamentals have changed. I think it's an excellent product, but if people aren't going to use it then.....
You still seem quite bullish on the stock. What is your explanation for what is a very poor uptake on such a great product? The low uptake given the amount spent on promotion concerns me. Perhaps they're not going to change the status quo. Anyone who has read my previous posts will know I think this is/was an amazing product and a great investment (ethically and financially) however as Hancocks has alluded to, they still need to justify themselves. The lows sales, high spend (with more to come) and lack of information hasn't done it for me.
Interested to hear your thoughts as to why you're not concerned and whether you're confident it's because xyz reason etc or whether you're just hoping they'll get there based on a great product.

Cheers, NBT

Hi NBT... other long termers have already posted extensively so don't want to duplicate but ... I am sure it is not a case of people not going to use the PEB product/s. They will but just takes time.

I have experienced this first hand and understand exactly what PEB are experiencing.... with certainly no intention of self promotion - but only to illustrate my point, I also started my humble business from a square wheel 5 years ago. It is now worth well over $1m and provides unrivalled value to its market. However, despite radio saturation etc, there are still people who say to me - "if only I had known about you 3 or 4 years ago" ... you could have saved me big $$$!!!! Well...I'm doing everything I can to make them aware...the fact is, potential customers "have to be in that space at the right time" - or they rely on others who are in that space to inform them. For PEB (& others) it is no different....those poor buggers with blood in their urine are relying on their professional advisors (eg - urologists) to inform them. It is clear PEB are working hard to not only make the Urologists aware, but also making it easier for the product to be paid for (eg - CMS). I've also been round long enough to know that professional advisors want to maximise what they can get $$$$ wise and unfortunately they put this requirement before their customer. So, to speed up this process, there is normally "inducements" that have to be offered. This is the part that I detest - but I bet if PEB were to offer Urologists some sort of backhander (as opposed to Urologists marking up the product), the uptake process would no longer be sloth like. (I could be wrong, but I am led to believe XRO offers an inducement to Accountants in order for them to recommend XRO product to their clients - happy to be corrected here though). But that is a solid reason for quick uptake - not whether the product is great or not. Another reason for slow uptake is people's natural sense of doing nothing is easier. Let me explain briefly...

I have just come back from visiting my 86 y/old father. We waited 2 years to get him into a RYM village (for all the normal reasons one would expect) and when the time came he signed up. In the following week, he had time to think about it and ended up cancelling out because "it is going to mean too big a change to my life etc etc". In other words, it is a lot easier to do nothing and stick to what you are comfortable with. So, he goes back onto the waiting list for god knows how long more. Two months later (ie - last Thursday), he has a mild stroke. Rather than pressing the St John's alarm thing and getting help - he takes a couple of aspro's and goes to lay down. Research has told me it is only a matter of time before a bigger stroke occurs... The point is, if people don't want to be made aware - they'll pay the price. It is no different than PEB and CxBladder!

In regards to PEB's performance...get up a 2 year chart and draw a line starting at the SP in October 2012 all the way through to the current SP. Then compare that with the performance of some blue chippers (& other well established companies) ...RYM, FBU, TEL, AIR etc etc. Even with more drop in PEB's SP to come, it is still doing very well. The large sudden increases in SP - caused by drooling traders trying for that quick buck - were, to my mind, sexy distractions to the main event. It has been the same traders who have driven the price back down again - the fear factor of shoal dwellers.

The big picture is intact - PEB are gaining sales traction (maybe not quick enough for some!!) - but I feel it will carry on in a good trajectory until they get momentum then it will go exponentially. The only threat that I can see is a very large competitor with better science - or a large takeover merchant. Yes, until I see something to the contrary, I am still very bullish on the long term success of PEB. Hopefully as they also start opening up the stable of other runners, she will continue to go....Of course, there could also be surprises that they have no control over ...so what - that's life!

Sorry - starting to ramble, but that's what you get when you have passion...

[geo]

There’s a big picture view too;

It's a top down approach, PEB have told us thus in there presentations, first the network providers must be on board, then the HMO's and insurers associated with those network providers, then some academic and procedural policy support from the LUG's, then sales folk making direct approaches to urologist practices, and then GP approaches.

This whole process has 12 to 24 months written on it to me, and we are only 7 months or so into it

The commercials and pricing contracts must be in place first, there is no point banging on a urologists door just to hear the same thing over again "great tech, absolutely want to use it, but my patients can't yet claim for it, but they can claim for cytology and/or NMP22".

A few weeks back I went to the dentist for an extraction, needed a filling too while I was about it, the dentist suggested amalgam rather than a composite filling as the insurers don't cover composite. And, they were right, my insurer didn’t cover it, $405 thanks very much.

Once the insurers start to demand their one third reduction in work up costs, and urologists can use cxbladder knowing patient costs are covered, or mostly covered, this is the time PEB sales will take off in earnest.

It’s negotiation stage right now and will be for a few months, all negotiations seem to be running in parallel at present, Medicare, HMO’s, insurers, and user programme roll overs. These contracts may well start to come to fruition all at a similar time also.

In this context, from a long term investors perspective, noting traders see matters differently, sales figures at this early stage are relatively unimportant in the big picture.

It’s the strategic roll sequence and schedule that is important. I’m focused more on this for now as an investor, and there is some evidence of a slide which I’m watching, I’m not overly concerned just yet, but I would like some more information.

Looking forward to the AGM now, question time will be interesting.

Hey Mac. What valuation do you see now you have some firm numbers to work with?

[MAC]

Hey Mac. What valuation do you see now you have some firm numbers to work with?

Hi Geo,

I was intending to post another valuation after the FY report, but I'm thinking now after the AGM, I've a couple of questions to nail down a little on the five year goal, preferably from CS, I'm finding DD’s commentary a little all over the place on this one.

All FA's must have some basis on which to value and if the company goals are not clear it can broaden the range of possible valuations.

It will be very interesting indeed to see Edison's valuation report in a few week’s time as they will have had direct access to both Pacific Edge and to specific US market analysis.

I would not be surprised if Edison is far from $1.70 or possibly a little higher. Hope I’m proven correct.

kind regards, Mac

[Goldstein]

Thanks for sharing Hancocks. I think you and MAC are doing more for investor relations than anybody at PEB at the moment.

I guess without having the insurers on board yet, it lends some credence to the rhetoric in the FY report. I.e., there can be strong support/interest in CX-Bladder without this being reflected in the sales figures.

Disc: I've just gone past my stop-loss with PEB, but haven't sold.

[blackcap]

[QUOTE=MAC;483921

It will be very interesting indeed to see Edison's valuation report in a few week’s time as they will have had direct access to both Pacific Edge and to specific US market analysis.

I would not be surprised if Edison is far from $1.70 or possibly a little higher. Hope I’m proven correct.

[/QUOTE]

That would not bode well for PEB holders. Edison also values CRP at around the $1.70 mark. CRP share price is languishing at about 25 cents.

[geo]

Hi Geo,

I was intending to post another valuation after the FY report, but I'm thinking now after the AGM, I've a couple of questions to nail down a little on the five year goal, preferably from CS, I'm finding DD’s commentary a little all over the place on this on

All FA's must have some basis on which to value and if the company goals are not clear it can broaden the range of possible valuations.

It will be very interesting indeed to see Edison's valuation report in a few week’s time as they will have had direct access to both Pacific Edge and to specific US market analysis.

I would not be surprised if Edison is far from $1.70 or possibly a little higher. Hope I’m proven correct.

kind regards, Mac

Thank's for that Mac. Now a question 9. Comments By Directors. The majority of this net loss is the investment in the Companies business rollout in the US. clinical trials. product development and intellectual property as is expensed.

The Company is now investing significant funds in the set up and running of the commercial laboratory and development of the US strategy in this Financial Year. [ I thought all that was done 12 months ago great fan fair lab setup ready for tests .am I missing something here] We seem to be getting confusing reporting here?

[skid]

There’s a big picture view too;

It's a top down approach, PEB have told us thus in there presentations, first the network providers must be on board, then the HMO's and insurers associated with those network providers, then some academic and procedural policy support from the LUG's, then sales folk making direct approaches to urologist practices, and then GP approaches.

This whole process has 12 to 24 months written on it to me, and we are only 7 months or so into it

The commercials and pricing contracts must be in place first, there is no point banging on a urologists door just to hear the same thing over again "great tech, absolutely want to use it, but my patients can't yet claim for it, but they can claim for cytology and/or NMP22".

A few weeks back I went to the dentist for an extraction, needed a filling too while I was about it, the dentist suggested amalgam rather than a composite filling as the insurers don't cover composite. And, they were right, my insurer didn’t cover it, $405 thanks very much.

Once the insurers start to demand their one third reduction in work up costs, and urologists can use cxbladder knowing patient costs are covered, or mostly covered, this is the time PEB sales will take off in earnest.

It’s negotiation stage right now and will be for a few months, all negotiations seem to be running in parallel at present, Medicare, HMO’s, insurers, and user programme roll overs. These contracts may well start to come to fruition all at a similar time also.

In this context, from a long term investors perspective, noting traders see matters differently, sales figures at this early stage are relatively unimportant in the big picture.

It’s the strategic roll sequence and schedule that is important. I’m focused more on this for now as an investor, and there is some evidence of a slide which I’m watching, I’m not overly concerned just yet, but I would like some more information.

Looking forward to the AGM now, question time will be interesting.

Very interesting post mac

Do you (or Hancock) know if cytology and NP22 are part of a larger company with other products or just companies in themselves.
They ,as you say ,are covered by insurance(at least some providers) Do you know if these providers would cover more than one product.
This product aint moving ATM and we need to know why.
It may be to early in the cycle ,as you say ,or it may be something more deep seeded (other than the product)
At this stage,how do we know if the company is not achieving its goals in the market place? All we have is the sales to go on.
We all hoped that we would see a clearer picture of where things were after this update,but unfortunately we are forced to either be loyal (with not much info) with our hard earned dosh at stake,or cautious as to when, or if we jump back in.
Simla's input draws an interesting parallel in many ways (he's kind of the Mac and Hancock for BLT) Of course they are not the same co. but there are similarities.--Guess we are all just trying to get our head around this in different ways.
Agree about the AGM

[MAC]

The October 2013 capital raising docs provided us with PEB’s plan, and I agree with Winner and Paper Tiger that $14M in opex is appropriate, probably a minimum for FY15, as this is what we have been advised, perhaps we will see a little more as not all is funded from the capital raising initiative.

Noting that there is little capex on the horizon as Pacific Edge have installed laboratory capacity now for at least five years, it’s more about ramping those labs up now with revenue funding.

Note the note too “The remuneration structure of Pacific Edge’s individual sales force personnel in the US is geared significantly towards performance (sales) based targets”. So there is a partial hedge here too, higher sales higher opex, lower sales lower opex.

5884
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/183827.pdf

[skid]

As weird as this may sound, I'm feeling quite excited about this stock again. I think momentum is gaining. Be interesting to see what progress look like at the next 6 month reporting period. Having said that, and as I've already said several times before, I think that real traction is still 12-24 months away.

Your only just getting excited about this stock again???:ohmy:.....:)

[MAC]

Didn't PEB promise that the last cap raising was going to be the last ever? How fo shareholders feel knowing another one is coming now? Glad to be proved wrong if they didn't promise per se, but it was stuck in my mind that they did...

This is where I’ve got to Moosie for your consideration and others, perhaps the accountants on the thread can check my work, as I’m not one, and I might learn something new;

As per the FY14 interim report, Pacific Edge have $20.4M cash in hand and will spend let’s say at most $16M in opex for FY15, probably less IMO, they do have that partial hedge with sales target linked employment contracts. Ref: 2013 capital raising docs.

So, as I see it, they don’t need any sales at all to fund opex or growth until sometime within the FY16 period. Some 12 to 18 months away, that’s ok for any start-up company at this stage.

It’s not an unreasonable proposition to me at this time, watching though as always. The difficulty as Skid points out, is how do we track how they are going, and those proposed quarterly reports might just help us with that.

However, I would quite like to see a capital raising actually, to directly fund a Cxcolorectal launch before the competition catch up, but that’s just me.

[Harvey Specter]

I know a SPP has not been confirmed and is just speculation right now,Is it just you speculating?

As Mac points out, they have more than enough cash to covers costs for over a year, and that assumes no revenue.

[winner69]

So this real positive slide from June 13 showing the pathway to commercial success in the USA was really a load of codswallop

I love the 'ambitious sales targets" which they 'expect to meet' by years end

I am beginning to discount much of what the company says .... never read much of it that thoroughly anyway. Always relied on Hancocks and Mac (thanks guys) to decipher for me. Just hope they have haven't been sucked in by this never ending story (and I did mention rhetoric once)

[winner69]

The October 2013 capital raising docs provided us with PEB’s plan, and I agree with Winner and Paper Tiger that $14M in opex is appropriate, probably a minimum for FY15, as this is what we have been advised, perhaps we will see a little more as not all is funded from the capital raising initiative.

Noting that there is little capex on the horizon as Pacific Edge have installed laboratory capacity now for at least five years, it’s more about ramping those labs up now with revenue funding.

Note the note too “The remuneration structure of Pacific Edge’s individual sales force personnel in the US is geared significantly towards performance (sales) based targets”. So there is a partial hedge here too, higher sales higher opex, lower sales lower opex.

5884
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/183827.pdf

I wish you hadn't brought this slide to light again Mac

My interpretation is that a lot of those expenses listed for 2015 are newish expenses for which only a portion have been incurred in 2014 (and maybe only a part year at that)

Expenses 2014 nearly $11m ..... I am uneasy with my guess of $14m in 2015 now - hell only $3m more and the roll out jn the US alone they say is $16m in 2015. What about all the other expenses?

Hopefully expenses wont be $20m but until some guidance is given I think they will be more like $17m/$18m in another massive loss in 2015 (taking accumulated losses to well over $50m)

[Dentie]

Yes, I was quite surprised to see CS so bullish - especially as he also is an Accountant - who are typically (by profession) regarded as cautious - even pessimistic (or pedantically picky) to a fault. How dare he!

Given what has occurred in "actual" performance - as compared to optimistic targets - I don't think they should continue with forward guidance - or targets - around future sales. They should simply report "the facts" - as they occur. Not only would that stop PEB thread dwellers (& other like minded shareholders) from being disappointed and vitriolic, because they haven't made the dosh they thought they were going to, it would stop a lot of hype being priced in to the SP ahead of schedule.

As I noted before, over the long term (ie - the big picture) - they are doing just fine (in my view at least) so far and are still well ahead of some of the big boys.

[skid]

There’s a big picture view too;

It's a top down approach, PEB have told us thus in there presentations, first the network providers must be on board, then the HMO's and insurers associated with those network providers, then some academic and procedural policy support from the LUG's, then sales folk making direct approaches to urologist practices, and then GP approaches.

This whole process has 12 to 24 months written on it to me, and we are only 7 months or so into it

The commercials and pricing contracts must be in place first, there is no point banging on a urologists door just to hear the same thing over again "great tech, absolutely want to use it, but my patients can't yet claim for it, but they can claim for cytology and/or NMP22".

A few weeks back I went to the dentist for an extraction, needed a filling too while I was about it, the dentist suggested amalgam rather than a composite filling as the insurers don't cover composite. And, they were right, my insurer didn’t cover it, $405 thanks very much.

Once the insurers start to demand their one third reduction in work up costs, and urologists can use cxbladder knowing patient costs are covered, or mostly covered, this is the time PEB sales will take off in earnest.

It’s negotiation stage right now and will be for a few months, all negotiations seem to be running in parallel at present, Medicare, HMO’s, insurers, and user programme roll overs. These contracts may well start to come to fruition all at a similar time also.

In this context, from a long term investors perspective, noting traders see matters differently, sales figures at this early stage are relatively unimportant in the big picture.

It’s the strategic roll sequence and schedule that is important. I’m focused more on this for now as an investor, and there is some evidence of a slide which I’m watching, I’m not overly concerned just yet, but I would like some more information.

Looking forward to the AGM now, question time will be interesting.

This thing about insurance coverage keeps coming back to mind..could that be what makes or breaks this co.? Getting Insurance co.s on board?--Lobbying large Insurance co.s must take a bit of skill. After getting their attention,you would need to come up with some sort of deal(discount?) that benefits the bottom line.--what kind of sweetener do the competitors offer? (does it involve a discount on other product or services from the competitors(if they have any) Do the decision makers have any ties with the competitors?
I remember once I visited a friend in the States who was a PA(pretty much the same as a doctor) I ended up going to a free dinner and Sting concert with her,compliments of a pharma co. for some diabetic drug. (had to listen to a half hour speal on the benefits etc. of the drug.---(thats why I asked if the competitors were part of a large firm etc--do they have clout?)

I guess one benefit of the disappointing sales is that it forces us to all expand our thinking past the good product and out into the market place.

Ive seen some documentary's on some of the things that huge corp. get up to (Marsanto in particular,but Pharma co.s are also notorious and it isnt a pretty picture) One could discount it as conspiracy stuff.( but then there was that Sting concert) ?? As a side bar--the doctor who she was associated with was an obviously educated black guy who looked pretty professional all decked out in a dark suit and tie--after the talk ,when it came time for the concert he ducked into some room and changed into some outfit that looked like a scene out of some American jive movie--It was more of a hoot than even me sitting there trying to look like a doctor:p

[skid]

http://www.jobshadow.com/an-interview-with-a-medical-device-salesman/

[winner69]

This thing about insurance coverage keeps coming back to mind..could that be what makes or breaks this co.? Getting Insurance co.s on board?--Lobbying large Insurance co.s must take a bit of skill. After getting their attention,you would need to come up with some sort of deal(discount?) that benefits the bottom line.--what kind of sweetener do the competitors offer? (does it involve a discount on other product or services from the competitors(if they have any) Do the decision makers have any ties with the competitors?
I remember once I visited a friend in the States who was a PA(pretty much the same as a doctor) I ended up going to a free dinner and Sting concert with her,compliments of a pharma co. for some diabetic drug. (had to listen to a half hour speal on the benefits etc. of the drug.---(thats why I asked if the competitors were part of a large firm etc--do they have clout?)

I guess one benefit of the disappointing sales is that it forces us to all expand our thinking past the good product and out into the market place.

Ive seen some documentary's on some of the things that huge corp. get up to (Marsanto in particular,but Pharma co.s are also notorious and it isnt a pretty picture) One could discount it as conspiracy stuff.( but then there was that Sting concert) ?? As a side bar--the doctor who she was associated with was an obviously educated black guy who looked pretty professional all decked out in a dark suit and tie--after the talk ,when it came time for the concert he ducked into some room and changed into some outfit that looked like a scene out of some American jive movie--It was more of a hoot than even me sitting there trying to look like a doctor:p

I don't think it a conspiracy skid, it's how the system works

Billions are spent by pharma / bio companies lobbying to get favourable legislation, bribing and coercing (ok incentivising sounds nicer) insurers and the medical profession to get their products used.

Things like cost savings (PEB selling point) and all that stuff don't matter. The system is always about the greedy saying what's in it for me. The system is based on lobbying, incentivising and in the words of many the winner is who is the most corrupt.

I don't know how good the PEB team in US is at this game. But whatever it is going to be expensive. Maybe that $16m they said they would be spending on US commercialisation in 2015 is essentially all new expense (blowing expenses out to over $25m) to play the game.

Balance assures me that the Board recognises Darlings weakness in this area and that is why they have this US based advisory board or whatever it is called to make the 'right' moves in the US.

Sounds expensive - less profits when successful. J just can't see how PEB is ever going to be really worth much more than $500m


I still holding my free shares but really only holding in the hope that somebody big will see this CxBladder is worth something and wil give me $1.50 to $2.00 for my shares

By the way ....did you enjoy the Sting concert?

[psychic]

I'm up in PT's part of the world for a week and don't have notes with me, but delighted to read that some at least are acknowledging the importance of Insurance coverage for PEB and just where we may be in the overall scheme of things. All this panic and doom because sales have not yet met impatient shareholder expectations. It is dead simple, if the insurers (govt and pvte) are not paying for the test, just how many do the majority of posters here think peb are realistically going to sell?!

Medicare will have its own process to acceptance of cxbladder and it's decision will greatly influence the private insurers.
The Medicare decision will follow urologist review.

This gives some insight on insurance acceptance of developments in the genetic world:


http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/804131

Blue Cross /BlueShield is a significant player in the US Health Market and that is why I posted their procedural policy earlier in the thread. Again, I think it lays the foundation for the next review.

It is all coming together for PEB and the the panic by many here has created a tremendous buy.

[skid]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/henrymiller/2013/07/24/u-s-medical-device-industry-in-critical-condition/

This tax applies to medical devices--It would be helpful to know if it applies to CX bladder as well

[skid]

I don't think it a conspiracy skid, it's how the system works

Billions are spent by pharma / bio companies lobbying to get favourable legislation, bribing and coercing (ok incentivising sounds nicer) insurers and the medical profession to get their products used.

Things like cost savings (PEB selling point) and all that stuff don't matter. The system is always about the greedy saying what's in it for me. The system is based on lobbying, incentivising and in the words of many the winner is who is the most corrupt.

I don't know how good the PEB team in US is at this game. But whatever it is going to be expensive. Maybe that $16m they said they would be spending on US commercialisation in 2015 is essentially all new expense (blowing expenses out to over $25m) to play the game.

Balance assures me that the Board recognises Darlings weakness in this area and that is why they have this US based advisory board or whatever it is called to make the 'right' moves in the US.

Sounds expensive - less profits when successful. J just can't see how PEB is ever going to be really worth much more than $500m


I still holding my free shares but really only holding in the hope that somebody big will see this CxBladder is worth something and wil give me $1.50 to $2.00 for my shares

By the way ....did you enjoy the Sting concert?

For free ,on top of a flash dinner--you bet I did! :) (it was some years ago now)

[skid]

So far I cant seem to get any mention of cx bladder on any of my searches about cancer detection--In this article they dont even say that early detection is that important!

http://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf11/bladdercancer/bladcanrs.htm

[skid]

http://www.cancer.org/cancer/bladdercancer/detailedguide/bladder-cancer-detection

feb 2014--wheres cx bladder?

[couta1]

So far I cant seem to get any mention of cx bladder on any of my searches about cancer detection--In this article they dont even say that early detection is that important!

http://www.uspreventiveservicestaskforce.org/uspstf11/bladdercancer/bladcanrs.htm
Nothing on the UK websites either only BTA, NMP-22 and M1M5 tests mentioned but if CX bladder is the gold standard then it won't be to long aye,also the more accurate the test is the more important it becomes as an early detection tool.

[psychic]

http://www.cancer.org/cancer/bladdercancer/detailedguide/bladder-cancer-detection

feb 2014--wheres cx bladder?

This site is hardly going to suggest cxbladder as an alternative to the current gold standard is it?

[Goldstein]

On December 28 2013, in the Otago Daily Times, Chris Swann says several tens of thousands of tests will be done by the end of 2014. (This has not been denied by Swann as some kind of misquote, as far as we know). Swann also says that CMS accreditation will be through in early 2014. Here's the link in case you want to see the article: http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business.

I take your point SimonHouse, but in actual fact:

(i) Chris Swann says he is confident the company will processing ''several tens of thousands of tests'' next year (2014)
(ii) Chris Swann says he hopes it (CMS accreditation) will be through early in 2014 ...

Point (ii) is also qualififed by the change in legislation with ObamaCare holding things up.

Note that I'm not defending this, but we should be careful.

[Minerbarejet]

Anything prior to the end of June is early.
Planned date was by August 2014 for CMS.
Still three months to go.
1 early 2 late
Still within original target.
So why are we into " sack the trainer" mode?:(

[Minerbarejet]

This could be a fun thread around here if Swann is the accumulator Balance suggested we may interested in.

[Dentie]

I mean, for God's sake - Swann sold HALF the dollar value of his holding that he had declared in the 2013 annual report!

See below

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/annual-reports/Annual-Report-2013.pdf (page 65 said his holding as worth $1.055m)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/190637.pdf (selldown of $548k of PEB stock on 4-5 March 2014)

Tens of thousands of tests and big deals are coming soon, he said in December, yet he sold down savagely in March....

Be careful Simonhouse ... The Cannington Road Trust appears to be the beneficial owner of these shares you refer to and Mr Swann appears to be the Co-Director and Co-Shareholder of Essex Castle Limited - the Corporate Trustee of the said Trust. This would suggest to me he may not be the direct owner of these shares - rather, he may well be simply holding them on behalf of the real owner. He could still be holding other shares in direct ownership.

Perhaps this needs clarifying at the AGM (or before if you are VERY serious)? Exact facts need to be correct before getting excited enough to ring the FMA.

[nextbigthing]

Be careful Simonhouse ... The Cannington Road Trust appears to be the beneficial owner of these shares you refer to and Mr Swann appears to be the Co-Director and Co-Shareholder of Essex Castle Limited - the Corporate Trustee of the said Trust. This would suggest to me he may not be the direct owner of these shares - rather, he may well be simply holding them on behalf of the real owner. He could still be holding other shares in direct ownership.

Perhaps this needs clarifying at the AGM (or before if you are VERY serious)? Exact facts need to be correct before getting excited enough to ring the FMA.

The point remains the same though regardless of whether he directly owned them or not IMHO.

At best it's not a good look.

[Dentie]

The point remains the same though regardless of whether he directly owned them IMHO

I get your point NBT... I was trying to make the point that if Mr Swann had ALSO sold down his PERSONAL holding of shares...then Simon's point would have more legs to run with, but if he didn't - then it could have been the Trustee's decision to sell down - for whatever reason - as opposed to knowing the sales weren't going to be flash.

I also noted Hulich, DD, CS & Masfen selling down all close to each other at those prices ... which made an eyebrow go up I can tell you...but not enough to sell at the time. I'm a still a believer at this stage.

[Dentie]

Correct, the Cannington Road Trust is the owner of those shares, and Mr Swann is as you say the co-director and co-shareholder of the company that is the corporate trustee of the Cannington Road Trust.

Out of curiosity, what street do you think Mr Swann lives on in Dunedin? Go on, have a guess. Use the white pages if you like.

Gee Simon - sounds like your dander is well up on this lovely holiday morning. You are obviously upset with all this - so, follow your heart and do something about it instead of ranting away on here. Call a shareholders meeting and discuss it properly ... look at S109 of the Companies Act.

[skid]

This site is hardly going to suggest cxbladder as an alternative to the current gold standard is it?

This is the American Cancer Society, Psychic, not some competitor of PEB,They are suppose to be mentioning the latest developments for the good of the people.
Now ,we know cx is better than the competitors,but good products dont sell themselves(as im sure you have observed by the sales.) Alot of others have learned this the hard way on the Blis thread) I think you guys are making a mistake if you are assuming that the masses are going to jump on board without good marketing(gold standard or not)
Wheres is the marketing. Wheres the brand recognition?
I would have thought the first job for sales would be brand recognition--Hell if the American cancer society doesnt mention it ,who else is going to know about it?
People may be missing out on this test and we are watching the SP go south.
im not here to slag the product,but Im questioning the marketing,and you should to,or you will only have yourself to blame if you lose out.

I believe that this co. could be an attractive take over target,but if it is on its knees it wont be a happy story for shareholders.

I think its borderline criminal that cxbladder doesnt get a mention on the ACS site,but its also not a good look that the folks at PEB have not done something about it.

[Xerof]

This was all raised a long time ago, so won't regurgitate

I only have one question that I believe should be answered. Was there a board meeting in late Feb/early March at which a progress report on sales was tabled, and led to all three directors/Senior management to quit some stock within days of each other?

[skid]

Anything prior to the end of June is early.
Planned date was by August 2014 for CMS.
Still three months to go.
1 early 2 late
Still within original target.
So why are we into " sack the trainer" mode?:(

Because ''the trainer'' may be mucking around with you and your families $$

[skid]

So we have 3 threads of thought here--1-Everything is still going as planned(although a few hic ups)
2-the management are mucking us around
3-the management are doing their best ,but are not up to scratch in their quest to sell the
product

Before,we were in a very optimistic era fueled by announcements--Everyone was in the mindset that if they didnt get in or stay in they were going to get left behind when the next announcement came.
Then cracks started to appear and the SP dropped.
Then we got another announcement and the SP dropped 10% (still cant figure that out)
Then the sales report which was not great.

I personally think we are (at least for now) out of that heady ''Im afraid Im going to get left behind'' mode and people are starting to ask questions that mayby should have been asked before.......which is a good thing..It helps us to understand the co. better (and perhaps teaches them responsibility (if needed)

So far Ive been doing a bit of DYOR and havent come up with much..maybe others could add (Im talking about things other than ''this is a great product'' Imo that is mayby not enough at this stage.

(my brother in law lives in Montreal and works for Bristal Meyers,and works in finance--Ill be going in late June and will see if there is anything that can be ''brain picked'' about the market in general,and how these things work)

[simla]

Everybody seems convinced some bad news has come out. It hasn't that I've seen.

The share price dropped from $1.60 simply because 318m shares priced at $1.60 with a PE of 15 would require an underlying annual profit of ($1.60/15)*318m = $33m pa profit, which would require sales of around the $100m pa that the company has said it certainly isn't expecting for five long years at least.

The share price had got out of hand and no small number of shares have since been sold on the back of that. In addition to that, tech stocks all around the world have been under heavy price pressure, so many people would have ducked for cover, as clearly very many have. I have no doubt that many posters on this group have sold out for exactly those reasons and regard that as sensible and normal, and not in any way a judgement that the company is off course.

As to the news itself, I read these reports and all I see myself is good news. They have a big task and they are making good progress on it. If the situation hasn't totally exploded fabulously in the mere 22 weeks since an article in the ODT, then that could surely be exactly what could be expected. Thousands of tests would still leave the company in loss presently I think, so no profit was expected.

(If anybody is interested, there is a delete button in the edit post area. It may be polite to leave a stub in it's place if discussion has been engendered.)

[barney]

On December 28 2013, in the Otago Daily Times, Chris Swann says several tens of thousands of tests will be done by the end of 2014. (This has not been denied by Swann as some kind of misquote, as far as we know). Swann also says that CMS accreditation will be through in early 2014. Here's the link in case you want to see the article: http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business

Between December-February 2013: PEB's share price reaches record levels (over $1.75). Clearly the chairman's optimism caused the price to spike. Healthy prices are maintained by the regular release of information to the market that appears to support the Chairman's optimism (the DeTrollo comments, the deal with the Health Innovation Hub, other DHBs in NZ). The share price consolidates around $1.60 or so.

In March 2014, The Chairman and the CEO sell down some of their shares within days of each other. No reasons are given to the market at the time. The share price starts to decline on a lack of information. Another director (Anatoly Masfen) also sells down to below the 5% mark. Investors start to get alarmed and the price declines to around $1 over April and early May.

Then, in late May, we are told that the company has only made tests in the order of several hundreds, rather than the several thousands that many investors had believed to have been done. Early 2014 has also passed, and CMS accreditation has not yet occurred. His notes in the commentary to the market make no mention of CMS accreditation or medicare (link here: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/194530.pdf). Post result, investors feel aggrieved and alarmed at what has happened.

Swann has beaten the share price up by his hugely over-zealous comments, and by his actions, has caused the price to steeply decline.

I'd put the case that in addition to calling for new directors nominations, shareholders should be calling for Swann's resignation as Chairman and as a board member.

Off with their heads.

Despite the directors and management making shareholders a boat load of money over the last year, we should sack them all based on a few lines in a media article written by a jurno who works in a profession which can be relied on for 100% accuracy and integrity.

[geo]

THE ONLY WAY PEB CAN BE SUCCESSFUL IS TO TRIPLE THE PRICE.

Imagine DD going into a meeting with the CEO of a LUO looking like [ Would you buy a used car from this man ]. Starts off with have I got a deal for you, If you use our product you will triple business make millions and become a hero.

CEO response thanks DD all we have to do is double our staff ,increase our office space work longer hours to keep up with demand. Then tell all our clients we will charge you only $550 instead of $2200?

There's a wonderful story about Donald Trump property magnet. He gets into a lift in one of his buildings a young girl gets in to and starts gushing oh Mr Trump as she gets to her knees and unzips his pants, and says I would love to work for you Trump thinks for a couple seconds and says OK but what's in it for me.

That's the way they think business in the USA. Why would the urologists sell something for $500 when they can charge $2000 make's no business sense. Probable why PEB only sold 170 odd in 26 weeks say 6 a week pathetic. I can just here you now what about the poor cancer suffers sorry cuts no ice, I have a cancer problem myself not []Bladder]. Don't lose your sense of humour.

[skid]

Off with their heads.

Despite the directors and management making shareholders a boat load of money over the last year, we should sack them all based on a few lines in a media article written by a jurno who works in a profession which can be relied on for 100% accuracy and integrity.

That boatload of money ? That kind of depends on when you got in,doesnt it Barney..

[skid]

Everybody seems convinced some bad news has come out. It hasn't that I've seen.

The share price dropped from $1.60 simply because 318m shares priced at $1.60 with a PE of 15 would require an underlying annual profit of ($1.60/15)*318m = $33m pa profit, which would require sales of around the $100m pa that the company has said it certainly isn't expecting for five long years at least.

The share price had got out of hand and no small number of shares have since been sold on the back of that. In addition to that, tech stocks all around the world have been under heavy price pressure, so many people would have ducked for cover, as clearly very many have. I have no doubt that many posters on this group have sold out for exactly those reasons and regard that as sensible and normal, and not in any way a judgement that the company is off course.

As to the news itself, I read these reports and all I see myself is good news. They have a big task and they are making good progress on it. If the situation hasn't totally exploded fabulously in the mere 22 weeks since an article in the ODT, then that could surely be exactly what could be expected. Thousands of tests would still leave the company in loss presently I think, so no profit was expected.

(If anybody is interested, there is a delete button in the edit post area. It may be polite to leave a stub in it's place if discussion has been engendered.)

Could you please elaborate on the ''all I see is good news''

[mis chief]

Unbloodybelievable! But fascinating, albeit morbidly.

Just so far today, FMA threats, words/phrases like criminal, screamingly incompetent, resignation, misconduct, ramping, God, savagely, and on and on, ad nauseum.

Too easy to assume (remember, assumption, the mother of all stuff ups) that those with knives now deep into PEB/management are perhaps those who have a lot of red?

Where does Mr Swann live? Where do I live??? Does anyone care?

Keep calm and carry on. Or get outside and kick a ball around.

[blackcap]

As with XRO, PEB seems to be suffering from the hype that pushed up the shareprice and now because it has fallen to more "realistic" levels people are all up in arms and getting worried. Both are probably great companies, great products and they are growing very well. Better than most. Just not enough to justify overhyped share prices. Nothing wrong with the underlying business though.

[skid]

Just to be clear,I can accept that the first sales may not be much at this point on the growth curve (forgetting for the moment Chris Swan)
But when I start goggling,I personally want to see some indication that PEB is out there working away to get their product in the arena so that future sales will eventuate.
Mayby Im missing it or its behind the scenes but Im just not seeing it ATM.--Some article in an American respected journal or at least being present on the American Cancer site.

Just because Im not seeing anything doesnt mean its not there--they've got PR in NZ but cant find much in the States.
Any one else found anything?

[barney]

That boatload of money ? That kind of depends on when you got in,doesnt it Barney..

Yes it does. I suspect much of the complaining comes from people who bought in when the sharprice was rising late last year, after sitting under 30 cents for years.

[skid]

Unbloodybelievable! But fascinating, albeit morbidly.

Just so far today, FMA threats, words/phrases like criminal, screamingly incompetent, resignation, misconduct, ramping, God, savagely, and on and on, ad nauseum.

Too easy to assume (remember, assumption, the mother of all stuff ups) that those with knives now deep into PEB/management are perhaps those who have a lot of red?

Where does Mr Swann live? Where do I live??? Does anyone care?

Keep calm and carry on. Or get outside and kick a ball around.

To be fair ..the criminal statement was that its criminal that some are not getting access to cx bladder because they dont know about it because the American Cancer society hasnt even put it on their site of possible tests.

We're all assuming--Only difference is that your assuming all is well--(and you may be right-we dont really know do we?)

[Tsuba]

Instead of wasting your time Goooooooogling and then theorizing and postulating over what you can or cannot find on the bloody web why not do what Hancocks did and pick up the bloody phone and talk directly with PEB to get a few things cleared up in your mind.

[geo]

As with XRO, PEB seems to be suffering from the hype that pushed up the shareprice and now because it has fallen to more "realistic" levels people are all up in arms and getting worried. Both are probably great companies, great products and they are growing very well. Better than most. Just not enough to justify overhyped share prices. Nothing wrong with the underlying business though.

There is something wrong with underlying business they are averaging 6 sales per week.

What the hell do the lab staff do.

[Goldstein]

Some Newfies might argue with you there Moosie. Three words - Seal Flipper Pie.

[Goldstein]

Everybody seems convinced some bad news has come out. It hasn't that I've seen.

The share price dropped from $1.60 simply because 318m shares priced at $1.60 with a PE of 15 would require an underlying annual profit of ($1.60/15)*318m = $33m pa profit, which would require sales of around the $100m pa that the company has said it certainly isn't expecting for five long years at least.


Yes, I tend to agree Simla. I suspect (hope - I can't discard what others are saying) that the trigger for the change in directors' interests was due to a PEB SP they thought they would have to wait another few years to achieve. So no collusion, tabled document, insider trading, etc, but rather the SP reaching a milestone.

Who knows, perhaps I'm being naive, but I usually try to think about what is the most likely scenario and leave emotion out of it. I would be prepared to invest a lot more in PEB, but there are some questions which need answering. The questions raised here will not be answered by company email I suspect and maybe the AGM is the place. Perhaps CS will be hoping for a cold wintertime southerly on the day of the AGM to keep the hecklers away.

[simla]

Could you please elaborate on the ''all I see is good news''

The company cannot control sales, only their own efforts to generate sales. They seem to be pursuing a sound plan vigorously, so what else can you expect? Yes, they have spent money on staff and facilities, but that would appear to be the only way to credibly enter the US market, so what else can you expect?

As there is nothing I therefore see that they could have done that they don't appear to be doing or trying to do, I fail to see where the bad news comes in.

[Bobcat.]

The bad news Simla (read earlier posts back to May 30 if you have a spare couple of hours!) is that sales expectations were set by company representatives to be in their thousands...but they have reported Actual Sales that are relatively pathetic.

Disappointment and uncertainty will almost always feed a bearish sentiment. There is now technical resistance at 90c, 99c/$1 (previous support), $1.13 and $1.20...which will need to all be busted before some posters (who I'm sure would prefer to remain anonymous) come back into the money.

Shareholders losing money is generally bad news.

[skid]

I'd like to know where Balance sits on this issue as he has been so outspoken about SNK and NZO.

Bal, I am aware that you hold and are probably (lol) biased. Care to comment?

Hang on while he calls his broker:)

[simla]

Yes, but that presupposes that the share price was based on expectations set by the company in the first place. I repeat my recent post:

"The share price dropped from $1.60 simply because 318m shares priced at $1.60 with a PE of 15 would require an underlying annual profit of ($1.60/15)*318m = $33m pa profit, which would require sales of around the $100m pa that the company has said it certainly isn't expecting for five long years at least."

I am utterly sympathetic of share price moving down. But that is a different statement to saying the company is not still on the road to the right place. I do not understand what else they could have done except been much luckier in the speed of take up.

[simla]

If you want to blame someone for a volatile share price, I'd try the Fed. Trillions of dollars have been unleashed on the world, all looking for a home. A small part of that has landed in NZ and created waves all over the market, not just here. People have been discussing it in many threads here over the last year or two.

[simla]

Thank you to whoever just gave me a reputation downgrade for not agreeing with the general views here.

But I'm just saying you can't hold a company responsible for the results, only for whether they are trying hard. These guys are clearly trying very hard, and I'd personally find it pretty discouraging to be working that hard on behalf of shareholders and then have this sort of a thank you. Everyone seemed to like their plans last year.

[simla]

If that is the case, for all intents and purposes, this thing could drag on for years and years

Yes, that is entirely the risk that shareholders take when they invest in a company without a profit history. That is indeed the very point. I have no idea when profit will arrive for PEB, but the fact that that is unknown is the shareholders' responsibility, not the company's. The shareholders decide whether to put money into an unknown situation. The company does the best it can with the available resources. That is what a company structure means.

[skid]

The company cannot control sales, only their own efforts to generate sales. They seem to be pursuing a sound plan vigorously, so what else can you expect? Yes, they have spent money on staff and facilities, but that would appear to be the only way to credibly enter the US market, so what else can you expect?

As there is nothing I therefore see that they could have done that they don't appear to be doing or trying to do, I fail to see where the bad news comes in.

I was hoping for a more detailed response than ''they are pursuing a sound plan rigorously'' -Whats that mean? Are they just going around to hospitals trying to sell a test that is not covered by insurance like the others? Is their test subject to the new 2.3%excise tax which is part of Obama care like medical devices are?Are they talking to the big decision makers in the big institutions or are they getting sidetracked by ''Champions''(doctors who like your product,but dont have the clout to push it through?) Are they buying the right people dinner? Do they have the right sales people with the right personality? Do they have any employees with connections on a high level? (someone who can lobby the big boys?) Maybe they do and maybe they dont. There are alot of things that are being taken for granted IMO--You can afford that luxury when sales are looking rosey but for now,thats not the case.
I wouldnt be interested in finding this out, if i wasnt interested in the co. ,but with all due respect ,those who bought into Blis in the early days have alot of ground to make up to break even before they start making any money. I would like to try to avoid that if possible.

The product is good--Now management is the key (Imo)

[Dentie]

The company may not be able to "control sales"...because that is always in the hands of the end user. BUT, they can control how they go about generating sales and making sure the end user is aware that CxBladder exists.

They have been focussing on the Urologists (since July 2013) in the belief the Urologists are going to recommend CXBladder based on it being the best in its class. We know Urologists don't appear to be doing that (or are they just lethargic?) and from what I've read on this thread - that's because they are making more money for themselves relying on the old science. I hope PEB do not start agreeing to pay them backhanders/commissions etc.

If PEB were to start focussing their sales efforts on those presenting with haematuria instead, the sales would probably start racing - after all, the patients are the ones who would be most motivated to use CXBladder? Well, if I was in that position, I would insist on it!

[skid]

In all my reading ,one thing keeps coming up--doctors tend to be set in their ways and it takes alot to get them to change to something new.
So obviously the product has to be promoted to say ''here I am'' and bigger co.s(like insurance) need to be targeted. It would be reassuring to hear that they are on to that.

[skid]

Thank you to whoever just gave me a reputation downgrade for not agreeing with the general views here.

But I'm just saying you can't hold a company responsible for the results, only for whether they are trying hard. These guys are clearly trying very hard, and I'd personally find it pretty discouraging to be working that hard on behalf of shareholders and then have this sort of a thank you. Everyone seemed to like their plans last year.

Simla--I can relate to your frustration with the reputation downgrade--I can honestly say that i have never given one without signing it(an I wish others would do the same) and respect the ones who do

[simla]

Don't get me wrong, Skid. I totally get the disappointment of things going slower than hoped. Goodness knows I've had to swallow that in BLT a few times, and it's not a happy pill. But that is different to assuming the company aren't doing what they can. No problem with everybody being down, but I've been pretty surprised at the dishing out of blame. Risk means that luck enters into it.

Since July 2013? That would be several months then? Urologists are very busy people. They will be looking at this with great interest I imagine, but time is time.

I'm sure the company is very open to being asked about their strategy and fielding as many suggestions as anyone wants to send their way. They want this to work too surely.

[simla]

Simla--I can relate to your frustration with the reputation downgrade-
Thanks, Skid. I'm not worried. I've been on the BLT thread long enough to know that people get annoyed when things are dragging out. And I've had more now, one up, one down! That's life!

[longy]

I investing in PEB as it has great potential and it what it could offer to the health market is quite neat... However, as investor I only could hold on for so long and no matter how much I have faith in the company and its management.... But the ultimate this question eventually will come up... just a matter of when and that is "Show me the money?" That is just way it is in investing.

[blackcap]

Just read a thought provoking quote from Benjamin Graham:

Today's investor is so concerned with anticipating the future that he is already paying handsomely for it in advance. Thus what he has projected with so much study and care may actually happen and still not bring him any profit. If it should fail to materialize to the degree expected he may in fact be faced with a seriously temporary and perhaps even permanent loss.

[psychic]

A common thread of misconception here seems to be that tests=sales. At this point, without Medicare or private insurance coverage, sales will be few. But we do not know how many tests they are actually processing. Every test, even if free in order to cement urologist endorsement will be valuable at this stage.

By the way, the tens of thousands term was used again recently in the notes to the accounts. But this time it was in reference to future nz lab test throughput. I don't kniw if perhaps this was the mixup with odt.

Also, dd has told us that swan selling had nothing to do with what peb was doing at the time. I don't expe t the cynics here to accept this, but holders might.

[winner69]

Just read a thought provoking quote from Benjamin Graham:

Today's investor is so concerned with anticipating the future that he is already paying handsomely for it in advance. Thus what he has projected with so much study and care may actually happen and still not bring him any profit. If it should fail to materialize to the degree expected he may in fact be faced with a seriously temporary and perhaps even permanent loss.

When I pointed out shareholders have pumped $66m into PEB - the market has already rewarded them 'handsomely' with a current market cap of $270m. The early shareholders have done well from their earlier investments (of real cash)

Ben may be right. I think he is saying the real money may already have been made, and that might may happen as projected may not be rewarded that will.

A phrase I like is 'the future is now'

Oh dear what have I have I said.

[couta1]

You guys ought to keep the good old carpenters song in mind here "Its only just begun" the fickle and fainthearted need not apply:cool:

[gypsy]

Well said Hancocks

[skid]

Just read a thought provoking quote from Benjamin Graham:

Today's investor is so concerned with anticipating the future that he is already paying handsomely for it in advance. Thus what he has projected with so much study and care may actually happen and still not bring him any profit. If it should fail to materialize to the degree expected he may in fact be faced with a seriously temporary and perhaps even permanent loss.

Wasnt that when Benjamin was contemplating investing in Bridgecorp? (hold your fire--just kidding):)

[skid]

The CEO, David Darling.
Is an enabler, creating, communicating, and implementing Pacific Edge Limited’s vision, mission, and overall direction. He is the equivalent of an orchestra conductor and he has the expertise of others to call on for the specialist areas.

The Chair, Chris Swann.
He is the company’s leading representative who will take the chair at general meetings and at board meetings. He will keep track of the contribution of individual directors and ensuring that they are all involved in discussions and decision making.

The Company.
Pacific Edge Biotechnology was created from Pacific Genomics Limited in 2001 when the University of Otago wanted to commercialise the discoveries of the Cancer Genetics Laboratory.

The original intention was to licence the tests to diagnostics companies and their income would have been via royalties (~2% – 4%). The original CEO was Davis Farmer (then 50yrs.) the Chairman was Trevor Scott (then 61yrs.)

The company accountants from 2001 were T. D. Scott & Co. Ltd. of which Trevor Donald Scott was principle and Chris Swann was a director. (for those interested in Essex Castle Ltd. connection)

David Darling became chairman in 2004 and Chris became chair when Trevor retired. These two men have taken Pacific Edge from earning a possible (~2% - 4%) to 100% of the total value possible from these genetic tests.

They have very effectively set up and tapped the skill sets and expertise of the Clinical Advisory Board, the Scientific Advisory Board, the Directors and the very capable discovery team of geneticists, scientist’s, software developers and bioinformatics analysts.

Pacific Edge Biotechnology became Pacific Edge Limited in 2010 as the parent for the diagnostics companies of the same name.

Pacific Edge Limited are a few months into the marketing of the first product and are getting into place the infrastructure to achieve this - these two gentlemen have my total and complete confidence, I’m 100% behind them; they have added much more value than most realise.

Interesting post --Im curious what has changed your mind in a week or so.
Lets hope ,if you are right,they all will be forthcoming at the AGM with providing information on just what they are doing to get this baby rolling,and if their projections are the same,in terms of sales take up timeline.
Getting from where they are now ,to tens of thousands of test by the end of this year seems a big ask,but they are the ones in the drivers seat-Maybe they could elaborate on how.
While I have my doubts,Im still glad you have stuck around as its great to have your knowledge of the product--I only wish we had some one with an equal knowledge of the American market. Cheers

[Schrodinger]

from what I can read (publicly available) they have a very one dimensional view of the US market. They will need some hard core external support to even get $5M of sales.

Doesnt mean they cant be successful in the NZ/Aus market. Anyone know if they are expanding into Aus. This is where they should have gone first IMO (seriously first).

[skid]

Skid, make sure you ask for poutine and a beaver tail when you go over to Montreal. Best artery clogging Canadian food ever created ;)

Ill keep that in mind--Nothin like a good Poutine to keep a man happy(whatever that is) and Beaver Tail-(I thought we have gotten our fill of the British version with the pics of Kate Middleton and all):)

[skid]

from what I can read (publicly available) they have a very one dimensional view of the US market. They will need some hard core external support to even get $5M of sales.

Doesnt mean they cant be successful in the NZ/Aus market. Anyone know if they are expanding into Aus. This is where they should have gone first IMO (seriously first).

I think they are in OZ but not sure if we have gotten any input on sales yet.

[winner69]

from what I can read (publicly available) they have a very one dimensional view of the US market. They will need some hard core external support to even get $5M of sales.

Doesnt mean they cant be successful in the NZ/Aus market. Anyone know if they are expanding into Aus. This is where they should have gone first IMO (seriously first).

Some say this US Advisory Board has some smart people on it

Can't find out much about them .....anybody explain more fully and their credentials

[skid]

You guys ought to keep the good old carpenters song in mind here "Its only just begun" the fickle and fainthearted need not apply:cool:

I certainly wouldnt describe you as fainthearted Couta :)

Another song by Stan Rogers springs to mind--''Its harder to start again ,that it was to begin...You can bet all your money on a 3 way strait..but it doesnt mean your gonna win.

Oh dear what have we started..:)

[winner69]

I certainly wouldnt describe you as fainthearted Couta :)

Another song by Stan Rogers springs to mind--''Its harder to start again ,that it was to begin...You can bet all your money on a 3 way strait..but it doesnt mean your gonna win.

Oh dear what have we started..:)

Another Rogers called Kenny would probably walk away from PEB at the moment. He a wise man that Kenny

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

[Balance]

Another Rogers called Kenny would probably walk away from PEB at the moment. He a wise man that Kenny

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

Time to fold was when it hit $1.55?

Now is time to re-evaluate.

[Copper]

Time to fold was when it hit $1.55?

Now is time to re-evaluate.
If you start with the charts you would take a holiday in the meantime....IMHO.

[skid]

http://www.auanet.org/education/guidelines/bladder-cancer.cfm

This from the American Urological Ass 2014 -if you scroll down to urine markers in dianostic,everyone is mentioned except CX Bladder (I would have thought it would be their resposibilty to inform of all tests new or otherwise.)

[squirrel]

Time to fold was when it hit $1.55?

Now is time to re-evaluate.
:) So nice someone has turned the radio on:).The thread was becoming depressive. How about putting another "nickle" in?;)

[skid]

:) So nice someone has turned the radio on:).The thread was becoming depressive. How about putting another "nickle" in?;)

your right squirrel---DOH!!! first song--da da da da da da da..da....should I stay or should I go....:)

[couta1]

http://www.auanet.org/education/guidelines/bladder-cancer.cfm

This from the American Urological Ass 2014 -if you scroll down to urine markers in dianostic,everyone is mentioned except CX Bladder (I would have thought it would be their resposibilty to inform of all tests new or otherwise.)
This article is 7 years old so a bit behind the times in terms of the latest tests offered but a good overview anyways.

[couta1]

I agree that there are problems with the story. However, for me personally, I think I'm better off waiting for the story to gradually improve than to bail out now and take a big hit. For instance, the share price could easily get back to $1.50 in the next 12 to 18 months as traction is eventually gained. Accordingly, I'm better off sitting it out than bailing now.

Thus, while the story has some issues, this doesn't mean that all holder should sell. Its more complicated than that. Exactly my thinking and the same applies to my Xro, SLI, Dil holdings,I don't need the money for a few years so why take an unnessessary large hit when the cycle will turn in all likelihood.

[skid]

I agree that there are problems with the story. However, for me personally, I think I'm better off waiting for the story to gradually improve than to bail out now and take a big hit. For instance, the share price could easily get back to $1.50 in the next 12 to 18 months as traction is eventually gained. Accordingly, I'm better off sitting it out than bailing now.

Thus, while the story has some issues, this doesn't mean that all holder should sell. Its more complicated than that.

Another option no one has talked about is that if this issue is raised ,then there is a better chance of something being done about it--at least a ''please explain'' by PEB ( im just trying to eliminate the possibility that they are somehow getting shut out of the US market)
I know it sounds conspiracy stuff..but still..

[Mista_Trix]

Another option no one has talked about is that if this issue is raised ,then there is a better chance of something being done about it--at least a ''please explain'' by PEB ( im just trying to eliminate the possibility that they are somehow getting shut out of the US market)
I know it sounds conspiracy stuff..but still..

With some of the stories about how the Big Pharma old boys club operates, one wouldn't be surprised.

[robbo24]

sorry couta Skid is correct if you down load the article as a pdf file this updated clinical pathway was put out in February 2014.
This has to be a major concern to shareholders.
1000's of free test done through user programs, millions of $ spent on marketing, so called high ranking urologists touting the product and they cant even get a mention in the American Urological Ass magazine but take note several other bio markers are mentioned.

This from CS
Chairman of Pacific Edge, Chris Swann, said: “During
the year it has been affirmed to us that our product,
Cxbladder, is in strong demand as an accurate tool for
the detection of bladder cancer.

That's not the school bell ringing.....it is more alarm bells about the story you are being sold.


Snapiti, the minor Feb 2014 updates are highlighted in yellow in the pdf. I suggest you read them. The amendments were not wholesale rewriting of the 2007 text. It simply changes the wording that a chemotherapeutic agent that was not available at the time of writing is now available as a chemotherapeutic agent.

Please read things before pounding your keyboard superflous inverted commas and such.

[skid]

Exactly my thinking and the same applies to my Xro, SLI, Dil holdings,I don't need the money for a few years so why take an unnessessary large hit when the cycle will turn in all likelihood.

In the meantime do all the research you can, to be ''in the know''that it will turn. (or not) The fact that the SP has been there before is not a guarantee it will be there again any time soon,if thats the logic you are using.
At some stage it will find its realistic price and hopefully start a slow steady increase from there (could be just above $1 or could be just above.50--depends on if and when they start showing a profit)

[skid]

Do you draw some lines in the sand though Couta? Like for example, with XRO, a minimum level of customer number growth in the USA that you are happy with and below which you would sell? Or for DIL a maximum number of times you will accept them delaying accounts? Or for SLI a minimum level of search queries that you would accept? Presumably you do right? Or is it simply just a time frame? i.e. Ill hold this thing for X number of years no matter what and then re-evaluate? If its the former though, I'm interested in what those lines in the sand actually are (for you and others)? Are they sales numbers? time frames for CMS coverage and other material milestones? Revenue growth? TA based indicators? or something else?

I personally always find it reassuring to have these lines DRAWN in the sand, it takes the pressure off having to make reactive decisions which can be clouded by emotion. Would be really interested in comments from Couta and other holders of PEB to the above. Again, good luck to all holding this one!

Agreed --it would be interesting to hear an accountants view on what sort of numbers are required to translate into what sort of SP (or to carry on after x years)

[robbo24]

I had already noticed that.
This new release was an opportunity to change/update all or any of the text, they obviously don't think cxbladder is important enough to even bother.
Please take off your rose tinted glasses robbo 24 you will be a better investors for it.

I'm not calling into question your wider views on PEB, I'm calling you out on developing half baked conspiracy theories out of nothing. Your comments on PEB persist ad nauseum. The update was not intended to rewrite the old text but correct two sentences that are completely inaccurate.

If you can't see the distinction between rewriting the whole thing and amending the two sentences then you are wearing brown coloured glasses and coming up with more whacky conclusions.

[whatsup]

Are we headed down to the Oct 2013 .55 rights issue price , Im keeping my powder dry for more buying as we get closer to that price, buying at .70 some at .65 more at .60 and big time @ .55 !!!

[skid]

I'm not calling into question your wider views on PEB, I'm calling you out on developing half baked conspiracy theories out of nothing. Your comments on PEB persist ad nauseum. The update was not intended to rewrite the old text but correct two sentences that are completely inaccurate.

If you can't see the distinction between rewriting the whole thing and amending the two sentences then you are wearing brown coloured glasses and coming up with more whacky conclusions.

In posting the link,I was trying to stick to the facts as much as possible ,leaving emotions out of it.--It does seem though,that if they were going to change things at all,it would seem responsible to include PEB for the sake of potential cancer sufferers at least.

[winner69]

Are we headed down to the Oct 2013 .55 rights issue price , Im keeping my powder dry for more buying as we get closer to that price, buying at .70 some at .65 more at .60 and big time @ .55 !!!

As PEB slowly sinks RAK steadily rises ..... up 20% from a little while ago

That gives us some hope

[couta1]

Do you draw some lines in the sand though Couta? Like for example, with XRO, a minimum level of customer number growth in the USA that you are happy with and below which you would sell? Or for DIL a maximum number of times you will accept them delaying accounts? Or for SLI a minimum level of search queries that you would accept? Presumably you do right? Or is it simply just a time frame? i.e. Ill hold this thing for X number of years no matter what and then re-evaluate? If its the former though, I'm interested in what those lines in the sand actually are (for you and others)? Are they sales numbers? time frames for CMS coverage and other material milestones? Revenue growth? TA based indicators? or something else?

I personally always find it reassuring to have these lines DRAWN in the sand, it takes the pressure off having to make reactive decisions which can be clouded by emotion. Would be really interested in comments from Couta and other holders of PEB to the above. Again, good luck to all holding this one!
In all honesty T, PEB was a little different from the others in that there was always the possibility of that big news item coming through driving the price up further so selling out could have meant missing out but the line I draw in the sand is when the fundamentals of the company change beyond a certain point and I don't see that having happened with any of the companies I'm in the red on, I think also a lot of people would have been caught out by the tech/biotech going out of flavor with US investors but as we know they could all be back in flavor big time in a years time, as a person who has first hand experience of big losses rather than just academic I've lost most of the emotion driving my decisions now and can actually sleep at night while 90k in the red,cheers

[robbo24]

A big portion of the market must be coming up with whacky conclusions(as you call them) to have taken the stock from $1.70 to 85 cps and still falling.

It is ruefully easy to do your job snapiti, perhaps the Postie Plus thread could use some of your weather stick commentary. You know "if the stick is wet it's raining, if the stick is moving it's windy..." and so on.

I am 100% adamant that the minor adjustments to the journal article were not intended to be a rigorous update. The market is unaffected by the journal article.

However, Snapiti Weather Stick seems to be convinced that the omission of Cxbladder from a 7-8 year old article is material and this is the cause of SP decline. The market is more rational than Snapiti Weather Stick...

[Mista_Trix]

In all honesty T, PEB was a little different from the others in that there was always the possibility of that big news item coming through driving the price up further so selling out could have meant missing out but the line I draw in the sand is when the fundamentals of the company change beyond a certain point and I don't see that having happened with any of the companies I'm in the red on, I think also a lot of people would have been caught out by the tech/biotech going out of flavor with US investors but as we know they could all be back in flavor big time in a years time, as a person who has first hand experience of big losses rather than just academic I've lost most of the emotion driving my decisions now and can actually sleep at night while 90k in the red,cheers

Hey mate, we've been investing for (kinda, in a noobie sense) about the same period of time. We also seem to have followed the crowd on a couple of the same things - DIL, CNU, and PEB. I've written myself rules - based on several long-term posters who have shared theirs, or those slightly wiser 'younger' posters. While I listened too late on DIL, and watched Moosie (very verbally, to my gain) drive through his pains of losses and then exit. These rules have kept me out of trouble on the other two (CNU and PEB).

I'm not saying they work, or that what I'm doing is right, but without rules, how do you actually know when a company has fundamentally changed? As this game is not just about 'sleeping well at night', but also about capital protection.

[Schrodinger]

In all honesty T, PEB was a little different from the others in that there was always the possibility of that big news item coming through driving the price up further so selling out could have meant missing out but the line I draw in the sand is when the fundamentals of the company change beyond a certain point and I don't see that having happened with any of the companies I'm in the red on, I think also a lot of people would have been caught out by the tech/biotech going out of flavor with US investors but as we know they could all be back in flavor big time in a years time, as a person who has first hand experience of big losses rather than just academic I've lost most of the emotion driving my decisions now and can actually sleep at night while 90k in the red,cheers

Only a loss if you sell Couta. Made many a dollar by sticking to my guns.

[couta1]

Hey mate, we've been investing for (kinda, in a noobie sense) about the same period of time. We also seem to have followed the crowd on a couple of the same things - DIL, CNU, and PEB. I've written myself rules - based on several long-term posters who have shared theirs, or those slightly wiser 'younger' posters. While I listened too late on DIL, and watched Moosie (very verbally, to my gain) drive through his pains of losses and then exit. These rules have kept me out of trouble on the other two (CNU and PEB).

I'm not saying they work, or that what I'm doing is right, but without rules, how do you actually know when a company has fundamentally changed? As this game is not just about 'sleeping well at night', but also about capital protection.
Sales numbers,search enquirers,change in dividend policy due to poor sales are all measuring sticks but so is what you as an individual see as the future value of the company based where you see the company say in 5 years time and I guess each person must make that call for themselves based on their own research and gut feeling. I've also done enough research to see that selling out and using stop losses in the absence of fundamental change is flawed for long term holders but each to their own.

[robbo24]

That is not how published academic writing works. An article such as this wont make amendments every time something changes. As far as I can see this is a 2007 update for Guidelines to Bladder Cancer Management, so this is how it should be viewed.

This.

The article was amended (read "updated") because it said a particular chemotherapeutic agent was not available. Now it is.

Again, it was not a wholesale rewriting of the 7 year old article.

[couta1]

This.

The article was amended (read "updated") because it said a particular chemotherapeutic agent was not available. Now it is.

Again, it was not a wholesale rewriting of the 7 year old article.
Yep and you'll notice that they also didn't include any new references either and I'm sure there have been some since 2007.

[robbo24]

No, unless I am missing something, the only update to this 2007 article was with respect to "changes in the avaiablity of the chemotherapeutic agents epirubicin and valrubicn". Unless otherwise stated it should therefore be viewed as what it is, Guidelines to Bladder Cancer Management from 2007, and therefore there should be no expectation that CxBladder be included regardless of developments since 2007.

You will find that is how published academic research works.

I do agree with you, entirely.

However you will note the update, of two sentences (changing from "not available" to avaiable) in the body of the text occured in Feb 2014.

[whatsup]

Are we headed down to the Oct 2013 .55 rights issue price , Im keeping my powder dry for more buying as we get closer to that price, buying at .70 some at .65 more at .60 and big time @ .55 !!!

Down today 7% , .79-.80, big release so far today, .75 approaching.

[Mista_Trix]

What was last weeks intra-day low?
Was it $0.78?

[simla]

When would you gentlemen consider buying back in then?

True, $1.60 at a PE of 15 on 318m shares implies a profit of $33m. It was a big call inviting a price drop.

But change that to 80 cents already, maybe lower, and then push the PE up to 45 for a growth stock nearing profit given that the current price drop must stop in a bit, and then maybe restore some confidence if the company comes up with some good sales figures in a bit, and it could instead start moving back up.

80 cents reduced the implied profit to 17m, and a bullish PE of 45 reduces that further to say 6m, by my calculations.

Now if the test sell at 320NZD as NZ Herald reported recently (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639), then every 10,000 tests brings in a pretty useful 3m revenue, no?

They just announced a loss of $9m. Sales of tens of thousands would therefore seem likely to change share price sentiment considerably. We know the NZ government started a 2 year trial (http://www.cxbladder.com/news/midcentral-dhb-first-in-new-zealand-to-utilise-cxbladder/) a year ago, and the data on this product seems to imply the trial should turn out well. Plus sales are commenced in other countries.

Thus it might seem that the price is potentially pretty good now if sales are really just over the horizon. Or not so much otherwise.

So the investors call might then boil down to the binary question of whether you believe this product will sell itself, and how soon. Does anyone have a clear opinion on if that will happen? I have no opinion.

(ps. Thank you to the two named contributors for the reputational upgrade. I'm square now, thanks. Risky disagreeing with the crowd, isn't it!)

[robbo24]

The market abhors a vacuum and gaps that must be filled :)

[skid]

Yes absolutely, and while that is not the norm for academic research, you will note that this is an update to a product that they covered in the 2007 version (and is noted as such) and not the addition of any information on new treatments or products (not already discussed in the 2007 report).

I was'nt posting the report to beat down the SP--i was simply trying to do some research and see if I could find any sign that PEB was gaining any traction. In doing that i didnt even find a mention of PEB.
Wouldnt you think they(urological) would keep the public a bit more informed than 2007 news? Seems a bit slack to me(to the detriment of PEB possibly) Is it a coincidence that almost all the others are US firms.It was the same on the American Cancer Society--no mention of PEB.
So the obvious question is WHO is providing any info that they exist? (This cant be making it any easier for them)
I tried searching for any info on the Clinical advisory board and the Scientific advisory board but hav'nt had much luck

[simla]

All the doctors I've ever met hear new information either face to face or through trade journals. I have met one or two who have heard of the internet recently, but they are the exception. I presume the sales force are face to face?