PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

Bit of action on the reputation comments --guess thats to be expected--they say DYOR-(one poster went to the trouble to put a rep mark saying nobody was listening to me):eek2:

The Irony is that this stuff may help PEB if something is done to raise their profile

[skid]

All the doctors I've ever met hear new information either face to face or through trade journals. I have met one or two who have heard of the internet recently, but they are the exception. I presume the sales force are face to face?

Hopefully,but how hard is it to get on the web sites?

[blackcap]

[QUOTE=simla;484333]

80 cents reduced the implied profit to 17m, and a bullish PE of 45 reduces that further to say 6m, by my calculations.

Now if the test sell at 320NZD as NZ Herald reported recently (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639), then every 10,000 tests brings in a pretty useful 3m revenue, no?

)[/QUOTE

Assuming they make $1 profit for every $3 (revenue) of tests sold (big assumption, I actually have no idea on this metric) then they would require $18m of revenue to have a 80 cents share price on a PE of 45.
If each test sells for 320NZD they would have to sell 56,250 test this year.

[blackcap]

Their GP on sales is more like 80%,and I think US test revenues are closer to NZ$500

Cheers New Guy, but if their GP on sales is 80% then why post a loss? Or is that just the fixed costs (static) still impinging on low sales?

Well if that is the case and looking forward we can ignore fixed costs, 80 cents for every $1 would then imply sales of 15,000 test to get a shareprice of 80 cents on a PE of 45. Interesting.

[Xerof]

Balance, your large buyer must be feeling like King Canute right now.....

skid, details of members of the clinical and scientific advisory boards are on their website.

I say, I say, this is getting a little overdone on a gut feeling. It's not the end of the world, it's the beginning of a sales journey. You guys keep looking for satisfaction of sales volumes. Swann only ever talked about tests. Free? How would you feel if they came out with a quarterly report which showed the labs had processed tens of thousands of tests? I personally suggest they do so (if they can), as peeps are losing the faith here

[couta1]

Something to shore up this SP anyway.... Boy, not sure I can see any good signs out of the trading today. The big buyers Balance referred to back some time ago don't seem to be any match for the even bigger and more relentless sellers.
Resisting the sheeple rush takes a lot of fortitude and is not confined to the sharemarket and i understand the behaviour of sheep being an ex shearer :cool:

[couta1]

Succumbing to the sheeple rush may have been the better option in this case though huh (certainly in the gap from $1.75 to $1.40 anyway...)
Yep hindsight aye but then again it could have gone the other way if big news had have arrived, that was the first shear this sell down is the second shear all ready now for the wool regrowth to commense soon:cool:

[Copper]

Just picking up on a point may earlier (by Klid?). I just graphed xero vs PEB since August last year. The correlation coefficient was 0.95!! While the trends have clearly diverged over the last week since PEB reported its underwhelming performance, the bulk of its SP action over the last 10 months or so has been driven almost purely by general sentiment/speculation, not stock-specific. Not exactly sure what to make of this, but its a pretty overwhelming finding IMHO.

5891
About 1 October 2013 PEB was about 118 and XRO about 30 dollars.....Today 78 and 32 dollars say....that's one up and one down quite a bit.Where does that timing fit into charting or whatever logic?? The graph looks similar but is it just a fluke?.as related to prices and their value relativity. Bit beyond my simple brain....

[SimonHouse]

Correlation with another company in a completely different industry is not much help.

Here are some other useless correlation examples:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/kjh2110/the-10-most-bizarre-correlations

[Copper]

Mistatrix, have a look back to October 2013. The market is presently filling the gap up between 75 cents and $1.10. I suspect a bounce will happen off 75.

The next gap below that is 75 to 50...

And they say TA is useless :p
Just under 60 cos that's where we started from and we ain't gone nowhere yet,IMHO....aussy mining stock stuff.Found the gold but can't get it to market....

[Beagle]

Yep hindsight aye but then again it could have gone the other way if big news had have arrived, that was the first shear this sell down is the second shear all ready now for the wool regrowth to commense soon:cool:

Gidday me ol mate. I have been a grizzly bear based on TA. Unfortunatly I got a brand new fresh perspective on the importance of this CX bladder test over the weekend...I am sure you can read between the lines. Anyway we will see how things go with powerful antibiotics.
It is very encouranging that such an advanced non-invasive test is available to patients in selected DHB's of which I'm in one with the Waitemata DHB.

Anyway...looking at this with a fresh set of eyes its clear the stock built a base in the 60 cent range last year before accelerating away to perhaps unrealistic level's late last year / early this year. Its clear "Mr Market" thought the stock was worth 60 cents before signing up 4 major contracts in the U.S. so maybe, just maybe, although it looks terrible from a technical perspective, we are starting to see some value around these level's (late 70's). Anyway I dipped my toe in the water at 77 cents. It could be a takeover target, I see downside as limited to 60 cents which isn't a lot of downside from where we are now. Sales will come, this looks like a remarkable product.

PEB was $1.11 less than 1 month ago...surely capitulation is coming to an end ???

[skid]

Hi Skid, I suppose my posts do look a bit out of place, but they are about the commercial rolll-out, my comments are not directed at any post or person in particular.

But over the previous weeks and especially last week and over the weekend, I got extremely uncomfortable with the inflammatory and potentially libellous statements, intended to bring the company, the CEO and Chair into disrepute and this was not acceptable in my opinion and I had to challenge it.

Fair enough Hancocks -- Thanx for replying

Im mostly just trying to make sense of it all

[forest]

But over the previous weeks and especially last week and over the weekend, I got extremely uncomfortable with the inflammatory and potentially libellous statements, intended to bring the company, the CEO and Chair into disrepute and this was not acceptable in my opinion and I had to challenge it.[/QUOTE]

Hancocks, I have followed your post for quite some time and I am impressed with your in dept research and your willingness to share this on this site. I think like you that the CEO and directors have accomplices great progress up to now. Included Chris Swann. PEB as a company is revolving from a research company into something far more complex. It has to learn to research at the same time as it is setting up sales first in the US then on a more global scale. I did look into Chris Swanns other commitments and I am wondering, is he the ideal chair for the future. Maybe he is or maybe it is time to thank him for a great contribution to the start up of PEB possibly keep him as a director and look for an other chair.
The company is not the same anymore now we are trying to get sales. I think we need the best and most committed chair for PEB at this stage of its growth. Do you think we have that already in the present Chair?

[Goldstein]

[QUOTE=Roger;484381 Unfortunatly I got a brand new fresh perspective on the importance of this CX bladder test over the weekend.[/QUOTE]

Best of luck with everything Roger.

As far as your suggested takeover goes, I think that is much more likely than what others have suggested i.e., various entities making access to the US market difficult for PEB. A quick search on the weekend suggests some of the big drug companies are trying to become more agile and supportive of new science, which more often will not be carried out in-house. I suspect with the dawn of genetic medicine and the completion of the human genome project, these companies realise that their continued existence may depend on playing nice.

[Joshuatree]

Come on H like most GM's they are always going to present it in the best light possible; they are human beings and their income , bonuses depend on it and us shareholders supporting that..There is usually going to be a feel good bias followed by food and backslapping in the same boat etc..This is not a personal attack on PEB.

[Copper]

I agree with what you say, however, I'm not just standing there grinning like a fool with a sausage roll in my hand. I have always had some serious in depth questions. What I cannot understand is why we have a Share Trader lynch mob against the chairman; I think this has grown from malicious posts on this site from a mischievous few.
I am watching this with a vengeance.Its like Snakk all over again.I won't post now cos I've had a couple of wines and that's not a good time IMHO....There are a few things however between all the accurate info and the crap that has to be related to the share price which is where I come from.Some of you need a sedative if we are allowed in this society to state that....I will return.....

[Whipmoney]

What I cannot understand is why we have a Share Trader lynch mob against the chairman; I think this has grown from malicious posts on this site from a mischievous few and it appals me.

Quite a few people on here get overly emotional in terms of being both bullish or bearish. In almost every single thread there is a few raging bulls and at various times a few angry bears.

Sometimes I see the same individual personas being contemporaneously full of euphoric optimism for a company in one thread, yet venomous contempt for another company in the next thread.

[Bobcat.]

When cometh the pain, one looks for someone to blame.

[MAC]

I agree with what you say, however, I'm not just standing there grinning like a fool with a sausage roll in my hand. I have always had some serious in depth questions. What I cannot understand is why we have a Share Trader lynch mob against the chairman; I think this has grown from malicious posts on this site from a mischievous few and it appals me.

Swan has brought Pacific edge a long way and has made some quite bold and substantial decisions, the easy option for any Chairman would have been to have approached the pharma’s, to sit back and collect royalties, or simply to have sold the company out at an early stage.

Thanks to Swan, Pacific Edge now has the potential to become a significant NZ based player within the global biotech sector.

I’d prefer he had less than twelve directorships and now that the business is going international and growing he may have no choice but to give some of those up, I would also like him to appoint a couple of US based directors from within the industry over the next twelve months too.

I would point out though to those whom degenerate his “tens of thousands of tests in 2014” comments.

We won’t actually know if this outcome has indeed actually been achieved until post 31 December reporting in May 2015, possibly January 2015 if Pacific Edge were to adopt quarterly reporting.

Whether he said it or not, tens of thousands of tests in 2014 is entirely the most probably outcome IMHO.

[geo]

I agree with what you say, however, I'm not just standing there grinning like a fool with a sausage roll in my hand. I have always had some serious in depth questions. What I cannot understand is why we have a Share Trader lynch mob against the chairman; I think this has grown from malicious posts on this site from a mischievous few and it appals me.

If the chairman had cleared up his statement to expect 10s of thousand sales and we get 175 did not help.

So when the SP tanked he is coping the flak goes with the job,

[barney]

If the chairman had cleared up his statement to expect 10s of thousand sales and we get 175 did not help.

So when the SP tanked he is coping the flak goes with the job,

The quote did not say that he expected 10s of thousands of sales in the last year. As MAC said above, it was next year. As I've said before, are there really people out there who brought shares in the company based on a one line quote in a newspaper ?

[blobbles]

This thread has become very entertaining.

Looking back the long term bulls were saying they were expecting sales in the thousands and that they would be upset if it didn't happen, potentially forcing them to re-evaluate. Most of them have now kept positive, albeit with a little bit more shakiness in their voices, but have pushed their time frames out to the end of the year or further. How far will the SP drop before their blind faith fails? And it IS blind faith. It is blind, because we can't see and don't have any answers to a great many number of helpful metrics which would help us to evaluate sales (user program acceptance rate, customer conversion rates, total number of tests paid/not paid for etc). It is faith as it is belief that PEB will still make it, with scant evidence to indicate such success. And stuff all the TA, as a fundamental investor, you now have some numbers to play with and those numbers can't be looking good on anyones spreadsheet.

The bears are picking up pace, saying "LOOK HOW RIGHT I AM/WAS!" as the SP drops again and again. Clearly the latest report spooked a great many of both short term and long term investors (myself included) who jumped or are jumping ship. But does this mean long term success is not given? At this early stage, not necessarily. Before the bears completely write off management they need to think about how much they may be ridiculed if they really start selling.

Personally, I have got out because the story has changed. In almost a year of selling a (potentially) revolutionary product, their sales are abysmal. Sparky had great advice around this - stay in until the story changes, and it has. Even their sales through Aus/NZ, which have been going for years, are still abysmal. Frankly even just in the Aus/NZ market they should be selling at least 5k a year, if not more. Its still a great product, but if they can't sell it, why give them your hard earned money to lose? I will still be watching eagerly for the next sales report but until there is evidence pointing to a fundamental change in sales momentum, I will stay out (90c exit price). And when they sign deals with CMS/insurers/health boards/whoever, all indications are this doesn't result in meaningful sales. It puts them on the menu, but it appears nobody wants to order the item. Remember that when they sign the next agreement.

[Copper]

I am watching this with a vengeance.Its like Snakk all over again.I won't post now cos I've had a couple of wines and that's not a good time IMHO....There are a few things however between all the accurate info and the crap that has to be related to the share price which is where I come from.Some of you need a sedative if we are allowed in this society to state that....I will return.....
It's not improving even this late in the day.....Perhaps you all go and have a quiet night and realise the share price is in the seventies and looking a bit like it may slip further. It may make the sixties.Moaning and groaning at the Executive won't help things and whether we have had 500 free tests or ten thousand paid for will only arise at the next meeting.My thoughts are toward the share price but I am afraid we are nearer civil war than any idea where the market is going.cheers.

[couta1]

When cometh the pain, one looks for someone to blame.
And in the absence of downright dishonesty, ill intent or some mega event outside a companies control then we must all stare at the mirror on the wall to put blame in its rightful place:cool:

[Bobcat.]

Yes, directors profited by selling some of their holdings when PEB's stock was overpriced...but wouldn't you have done the same? If not, why not? That's not insider trading - it's good business.

PEB would not be the first NZ company to underestimate the barriers to entry, and hoops through which to jump, that any new entrant confronts when dealing with the well established and protected markets served by the Healthcare industry in the USA. It will take time to gain a footing, no matter how much competitive edge their products bring, and if we fooled ourselves into thinking that all the ducks were lined up..then we have but ourselves to blame.

There is good value in this company - although their marketing & sales strategy has been found wanting, their products and management still do look good. When I buy stock I'm investing in its strategies, its people, services, products and other resources.

I for one will be giving them a second chance - if and when its sp drops into the 60s, I'll be buying into a larger slice of PEB.

[blocker3]

Gap to bottom line 75 has now been filled and is new major resistance. Market now looking to fill 50 to 74 cent area.

Anyone else still want to call TA useless?

Right on track Moosie with your TA information with the .75 open today. Exactly what you said last week. You have saved my bacon. Cheers

Now 50-75 area .... interestion

[bull....]

goonna gert thumped towards that 55 - 60c level

[Bobcat.]

Good support on market at 70c. I have a cheeky bid just under at 68c. Coming close now....

[Mista_Trix]

I'd say even those that want to buy back in (myself included) are gunna stay out until a better trend forms, it could bottom out pretty badly before this happens ...

[tosspot]

So whos still holding through all this, and what are your plans.

[whatsup]

Are we headed down to the Oct 2013 .55 rights issue price , Im keeping my powder dry for more buying as we get closer to that price, buying at .70 some at .65 more at .60 and big time @ .55 !!!

Got my first hit at .70, next floor down .65 !

[blocker3]

OMG hit just .69

[blocker3]

So whos still holding through all this, and what are your plans.

Not me ,I swallowed the loss at .87 & .89.

[Bobcat.]

Don't bounce yet! Hit me at 68c...darn it.

Bid's now at 70c....



Edit: ..make that 72c. Bouncing from here I would say, with a new floor at 70c.

[mbrook]

Well the Top biotech compnay for 2014, is being hammered, completely hammered. And I fail to see the logic in the price movement. Its beggining to smell of manipulation.
12% gain in a matter of minutes on their last news item, followed by a 30% drop on low volumes..

[robbo24]

If you extend your chart a bit further (2 years) it doesn't really look like there is any kind of "gap" between 70 and 50.

70 looked like strong resistance a year and a bit ago. The amateur traders gap (if you want to call it a gap, technically the big white stick from 70 to 170 isn't a gap) was surely that big rise upwards. Fear of missing out.

Is 70 the bottom? Remains to be seen, will watch with great interest.

70 was, after all, strong ass resistance so will it now be strong ass support?

[Mista_Trix]

Well the Top biotech compnay for 2014, is being hammered, completely hammered. And I fail to see the logic in the price movement. Its beggining to smell of manipulation.
12% gain in a matter of minutes on their last news item, followed by a 30% drop on low volumes..

I don't think so. I think the easy and erratic gains of 2013 - throw money at stuff it'll likely go up, is now long behind us.
Winters coming - People are settling in to companies that are making 'actual' gains. PEB has 'potential', but has not got very far since last year. Headlines alone aint gunna support a high SP in this environment any-more.

So for those of us without TA nous, where do current support and resistance sit. Do we go all the way back to mid last year at .69, .60ish and .50ish? Or do intra-day play a deeper role?
Any response appreciated :)

[mbrook]

Well i see buyers, not sellers today, and at prices higher than that sudden drop f 7c

[bull....]

can anyone confirm that a share price of 70 cps will have PEB dropping out of the NZX 50 when the re weighting are done. Fastest in history.
This is very relevant to share holders as it will pile on the selling pressure.

if they dont hit the jackpot, price will most likey head to penny status over time and yes they wont be in the top 50 i believe

[Schrodinger]

Since the company cannot sell its product a market cap sub $100m seems reasonable ($0.30)

[Bobcat.]

I expect that if and when PEB settles above 75c later this week, NZX50 membership will be assured...but yes, it would be interesting knowing the MC cutoff...which of course depends on the MC of the stock in the wings waiting...

I'll see if I can find that out - anyone else got an idea?

[mbrook]

Well either ASB data feed is garbage or delayed by days.. 113,000 at 80c trade for example

[Mista_Trix]

Well either ASB data feed is garbage or delayed by days.. 113,000 at 80c trade for example

Its gone nowhere near that number today.
You're looking at depth yes?

[Santiago]

Ah I see what you are looking at - that is a combined 7 orders for sale at 80c

Are you talking about their share price, or their order book?

... Sorry, couldn't resist.

[mbrook]

So ignore the ASb depth table? I see 73/74 down 5c @ 10:46am

[mbrook]

Yes I think the Depth chart has been confusing me :)

[goldfish]

I surprised how quick buyers pile back in after it drops so much, unless they are daytraders they have lost a lot of money over the last few days.
They dont last long though lots of sellers wanting to dump on them.
I still think it may be 50cents in a few months, why hurry to get back in its not going to go anywhere fast, except down. Least wait till they can show they can actually sell this thing.

[winner69]

moosie says the action really starts at 11am .....still waiting today

[GRIFFIN]

Yes until PEB drum up some good sales and cash revenue which will not now be reported for some time the share value has to drift lower, i think the market is showing the total uncertainty of the future for this stock right now and if that continues well the 50c some advocate is looming very quickly by the day

[nextbigthing]

There always seems to be strong support about 5c under the going price, as soon as it gets down to that price this 'strong support' seems to move another 5c down. Someone trying to hold it up/pretend there's stronger support than what's actually there?

[blobbles]

60c, 50c, 40c, 20c are major support levels from memory, all are entirely possible over the short/medium term I feel.

[nextbigthing]

Thanks for posting that NewGuy. Will be interesting to see how you get on.

[goldfish]

850000 shares at 65 66, wonder if its a insto trying to stop the slide, maybe salt didnt they buy in at 95 the other day. Remind me not to invest with them.
This stock went from a wealth creator to a wealth destroyer quicker then you can sell a bladder cancer test.

[robbo24]

PS - try to avoid committing blackmail.

PPS - research the meaning of blackmail.

[Frankenstein]

Thanks for sharing that NewGuy, eagerly awaiting DD's reply...

[Ryrynz]

Wish I had an exit plan with this, guess I'll just ride it out.. so many thousands down.. really sucks. Guess that'll teach me.

[Joshuatree]

Sad to see the sink, thoughts are with holders. I still have a residual holding and thanks again to snapiti for helping me derisk when i did; saved 30c atm ashare.

[sideburns66]

Thanks NewGuy, you have articulated mine (and many other's) thoughts well. I myself am now sitting on about a 5% gain, down from 150%+ so am looking forward to a reply.

[robbo24]

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1961/0043/latest/DLM330263.html

And

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1961/0043/latest/DLM330268.html


dude, playing nice is not getting us anywhere. I was just giving him options :p

[robbo24]

Not to mention the libelous accusations now published on here...

[nextbigthing]

so sue me.

He would, but ironically he can't as he lost his money for the lawyers fees on PEB shares :p

[geo]

Can't understand the NZX has not called the Chairman and CEO to come and see us and explain why the SP has tanked so dramatically.

Still think the NZX is seen as the Wild West of stocks.

[blackcap]

Can't understand the NZX has not called the Chairman and CEO to come and see us and explain why the SP has tanked so dramatically.

Still think the NZX is seen as the Wild West of stocks.

Good point geo, the ASX would be all over this. The 6 month chart looks like the inverse of one of those y=x^2 charts that we used to do in calculus.

[robbo24]

so sue me.

I'm not out to get you, I'm trying to help you.

[robbo24]

He would, but ironically he can't as he lost his money for the lawyers fees on PEB shares :p

Who does a mechanic pay to fix his or her car?

[Goldstein]

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1961/0043/latest/DLM330263.html

And

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1961/0043/latest/DLM330268.html

I'm no lawyer, but NewGuy is OK if you read subsection 2 of

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/p...DLM330263.html

"..unless the making of the threat is, in the circumstances, a reasonable and proper means for effecting his or her purpose."

Still, to get a response it is always better to make a polite enquiry. See for instance Hancocks' enquiries.

[nextbigthing]

Who does a mechanic pay to fix his or her car?

Hmmm. I hate interpreting multi choice. 'Fix' is of interest to the question.

a) A Panel beater or auto electrician
b) A vet
c) A lawyer
d) Another mechanic because he's lazy
e) All of the above

I'm going with b. You take stuff to a vet to get 'fixed'.

:)

[mbrook]

Some need to calm down on here. PEB are hardly to blame for the wild swings in price. It has to be market makers, or institutions buying or selling in the background.
Someone wanting or dumping a 6% stake would do this, not a handbag full of private investors. I hardly see DD or any of the board being responsible for this, I would like them to focus on sales and ignore the shares. All Biotechs are getting hammered. PEB voted top bio company for 1014, with a good product now focused on selling.

[robbo24]

I'm no lawyer, but NewGuy subsection 2 of

http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/p...DLM330263.html

"..unless the making of the threat is, in the circumstances, a reasonable and proper means for effecting his or her purpose."

Still, to get a response it is always better to make a polite enquiry. See for instance Hancocks' enquiries.

It is always a risk to imbue your actions with the objective characteristics of what constitutes reasonable and proper...

Particularly when done in public, alongside unsubstantiated allegations of investigation where you claim to have a private economic interest in the outcome of the threat...

Just saying :)

[mbrook]

From Whom?

[Toasty]

A please explain is coming

What would be the point? It would surprise me if they said anything other than "we have no knowledge of any....blah blah.."

[Bobcat.]

What would be the point? It would surprise me if they said anything other than "we have no knowledge of any....blah blah.."

That in itself can stop the sp falling, and even give it a leg up. Any material change influencing the value of the stock must be declared.

[robbo24]

from the NZX of course and you can bet the reply will be a copy of one you have seen before.
Which basically says the company has nothing to declare.
I am sure most companies have this reply already to go if asked.
Standard procedure with a standard question and a standard answer which is pretty much a waste of time.

Except it locks them in for crippling personal liability for not disclosing what they knew of ought to have known, if it later comes to light.

Seems quite useful to me.

[bull....]

why would they have to explain irrational exuberance of share investors who pushed the price up 100% on some announcements

[winner69]

Winner, if you look at your intraday chart we've already had our quick valley and peak. Usually happens between 10 and 11.30 but someone was quuck today.

See if she bounces off 68-70 again...

Yes Moosie they were a bit quick

I sense that 68/69 about 11ish was capitulation time ....the losers finally giving up and accepting their losses and some winners (those who bought last year) saying lets keep something anyway. That's how I read the action this morning anyway


I don't think we will ever see 68/69 again. All up from here

In spite of all the action on this thread I reckon most have made a decent amount out of PEB, whether they still hold all or past of their shares or sold out completely. Just that we not as rich as we were a month or so ago that's causing the angst.

I reckon you should be back in Moosie

[mis chief]

Jeez, this is much more fun than the re runs of Days of our Lives (did ANYONE watch that crap?).

Late start today people, first post only at 10.03 am. Let’s have a sweep on how many hurts, I mean posts, there are today. Don’t do math too well, but I make it about 111 posts yesterday. Shall we go for 112..... hey, why not 222?

So many experts (One who knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing) on board now, on the thread. Highly entertaining.

But head banging stuff, this, thank god for padding. I'm reading Psych 10100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 000000000000000000 so I can be an expert too.

[goldfish]

No need really, obvious whats happened, price shot up on hype of signings and a bull tech stock environment, then no news for ages and a bear tech stock environment eroded price over time, then sales report shows they arent gaining any traction yet and show no signs of it. And we end up here...

[nextbigthing]

Who is Mis Chief the alter-ego of?

[goldfish]

Yes Moosie they were a bit quick

I sense that 68/69 about 11ish was capitulation time ....the losers finally giving up and accepting their losses and some winners (those who bought last year) saying lets keep something anyway. That's how I read the action this morning anyway


I don't think we will ever see 68/69 again. All up from here

In spite of all the action on this thread I reckon most have made a decent amount out of PEB, whether they still hold all or past of their shares or sold out completely. Just that we not as rich as we were a month or so ago that's causing the angst.

I reckon you should be back in Moosie

Even if this is the bottom why buy into such a downtrend as this?
The only thing that will push this up long term is sales numbers and that sure aint happening yet.
Better to wait to see if they can sell this thing first.

[robbo24]

Try and name me a publicly listed company on the nzx or their directors that have been caught out by this.

Lunchtime is nearly over but there's enough time to educate you on a couple:

Rakon, Energy Mad Limited, Plus SMS.

All the good ones.

I invite you to research the fiduciary, statutory and regulatory obligations on directors and others purporting to have certain types of company authority.

Save me from spending my lunch time with my head in my hands at your posts...

[mbrook]

Its a volatile market, and none of PEB's doing. I am down 30%, but still can't point blame at the company that seems to be heading in the right direction.

[Bobcat.]

A dead cat bounce is all we can hope for until Actual Sales are confirmed. Remember that there are several resistance levels above us which won't be easily broken until the next positive material change in company value is announced.

85c is probably the one that will cap any short-term price rise. Still, that's a 15% rise on where we are today (and >20% for those fortunate enough to have come in at 68/69c).

BC

[goldfish]

Yup, pretty much how it is. It's the alleged bullish comment from Swann, the over optimistic forward guidance on revenues (and slight backtracking on the time line) + the selling of shares by directors/management shortly before the whole thing went belly up that complicates it a bit.

Does anyone know if there are actual rules in place for what PEB should have done re the alleged Swann comment? IMO what they ended up doing was unethical, but did they actually break any rules?

I think shareholders should stand behind NewGuy regarding demanding regular sales and test processing numbers by region. For me this is just common sense. Given the trouble this stock has seen over the last few months and the numbers that have come out, I just cant see how they are going to attract any long term investors unless they provide these test numbers...

If they don't provide them...well, I would be extremely skeptical of what is going on!

Wasnt the price near its highs when Swann made those comments?
Lots of sell signals all the way down, buyer beware really, was always a highly speculative stock.
I agree with the numbers comment though.

[RTM]

"Good luck.
Remember this is highly speculative. Its not like the electricity Co's or Heartland.
Will either be great.....or useless...in 1-3 years."

I've copied the above from an email I sent to a few friends. Settle down everyone. As someone said earlier, this is a marathon....not a 100meter sprint. If we are lucky they may turn it into a 10,000 meter race.

Yes, I have invested some money here. Not enough to break the bank. But enough that I do care about it. I like to support NZ companies having a crack. And these guys seem to be heading in the right direction. But I certainly don't expect overnight success. Lets let them get on with making sales. I'm sure they are giving it their best shot. And reporting sales on say monthly basis isn't really going to help anyone.

Cheers
RTM

[goldfish]

No, not really. As I recall the SP was about $1.20.
The share price subsequently went up over $1.70 (so nearly 50% gain)
Then Darling, Swann and Masfen all sold down early March when from memory the SP was between $1.45 to $1.60 (notably all sold after 4 separate "positive" announcements were made from late Jan through Feb).

My mistake, i thought it was higher...

[tunsbro]

Yes Moosie they were a bit quick

I sense that 68/69 about 11ish was capitulation time ....the losers finally giving up and accepting their losses and some winners (those who bought last year) saying lets keep something anyway. That's how I read the action this morning anyway


I don't think we will ever see 68/69 again. All up from here

In spite of all the action on this thread I reckon most have made a decent amount out of PEB, whether they still hold all or past of their shares or sold out completely. Just that we not as rich as we were a month or so ago that's causing the angst.

I reckon you should be back in Moosie

I suspect there were a lot of stops triggered once we went below 70. That would have been seen as 'safe' a few days ago.

[Dentie]

What you have right now is a vucious snowball effect. Traders try and buy as low as possible, pump up the price on low volume then try and dump as fast as possible above average buy in order to lock in profits. Those not quick enough are left holding the baby and end up realising losses sooner than later at lower prices. Combined with others holding significant losses and looking to exit, the downward pressure is quite intense and keeps repeating until a "fair value" is reached.

Thanks Moosie - to me, you have put it in a nutshell. As I have suggested before, if you look at a long line back 2 years and compare today's SP with a blue chip (a la RYM for example), PEB is doing just as well as they are.

All these tears are simply being caused by traders who, in my opinion, bid the price up hugely based on contract signings (as opposed to fundamental sales/profits) and now the market is doing a simply correction. And, as the Moose points out, after passing the parcel...the traders don't want to be holding the last parcel.

Again in my opinion, no true investor will be watching this with tears in their eyes as they are in for the long haul - as they should be in a company like PEB. They should still be either sitting on nice profits - or a paper loss and waiting patiently for the gains that will come over time. PEB should not be a stock for traders at this stage of the game and if they had not bid up the prices - through greed, all these torrid sounding posts would not have happened.

[mbrook]

compare the share price of PEB with the ASX biotech share ACR, the graphs over the last month are the same. I think its just negative sentiment returning to biotech stocks.

[robbo24]

Are we going to see a HAMMER TIME at close today?

Would be an interesting hammer, off the long term support of circa 70, yes?

[bull....]

Thanks Moosie - to me, you have put it in a nutshell. As I have suggested before, if you look at a long line back 2 years and compare today's SP with a blue chip (a la RYM for example), PEB is doing just as well as they are.

All these tears are simply being caused by traders who, in my opinion, bid the price up hugely based on contract signings (as opposed to fundamental sales/profits) and now the market is doing a simply correction. And, as the Moose points out, after passing the parcel...the traders don't want to be holding the last parcel.

Again in my opinion, no true investor will be watching this with tears in their eyes as they are in for the long haul - as they should be in a company like PEB. They should still be either sitting on nice profits - or a paper loss and waiting patiently for the gains that will come over time. PEB should not be a stock for traders at this stage of the game and if they had not bid up the prices - through greed, all these torrid sounding posts would not have happened.

its a great traders stock, one of the few on the nzx

[Dentie]

its a great traders stock, one of the few on the nzx

So why are they all crying then? It's certainly not about the company - or its business. From a traders' perspective it is only about one thing - get in .... look for anything to make the SP rise (as quickly as possible) .... then look for a time to dump them as quickly as possible....just don't be the last one holding. The business itself is irrelevant. It's just about the $$$.

Sort of like a red light district for the financial side of things. Meanwhile, the company itself is only interested in one thing ... getting on with business and meeting their client's expectations.

[bull....]

isnt trading or investing all about making money? of course we all cry if we lose money, its how quick you get over it and move on thats important

[Minerbarejet]

Gee I dunno - go away for a couple of days and you guys have driven the price down some more. Could we please instigate some positives.

1. Why are they hiring more lab technicians if they dont have tests to be done.

A Rough guide to the uptake rate

Using 3 tests as the start and adding 4
Add the 3 to the 4 = 7 Oct
Add the 7 to the 3 = 10 Nov
Add the 10 to the 7 = 17 Dec
Add the 17 to the 10= 27 Jan
Add the 27 to the 17 = 44 Feb
Add the 44 to the 27 = 71 Mar

Total 176
Take that out to sept at that rate as above comes to 3152
To mar next year it comes out to "several tens of thousands"
So if the number of tests revealed in november update is less than 3152 then that can only mean 1 thing
The 176 tests are actually ahead of target
If it is more than 3152 then it is behind and the curve is steeper
I know, I know, its all straight line stuff but we cant get any kind of curve until November unless they start updating numbers in the meantime. It would help a lot- both SP and stopping arguments.
No doubt someone will have a better handle on it but I really cant see what all the fuss over sales is about.
Cheers
Miner


Bet thats got your calculators going - never know we might come up with something worthwhile:)

[Beagle]

holy ****, its up 1 for the day.

Goes to pub :p

And i'm ahead by a nose :D

[Balance]

Some of you are going to get a coronary, judging the postings on this thread.

Cool calm cucumbers, guys.

[bull....]

obviously not many on here brought this morning? 10% returns for the day great trading stock

[Bobcat.]

Volume growing - looks like it will be close to 2m by market close. That's a good sign for a pivot and momentum shift. A higher low and higher high tomorrow is needed to confirm it.

[winner69]

obviously not many on here brought this morning? 10% returns for the day great trading stock

Methinks are few did bull

Capitulation (the final wash out) was late morning at 68/69 ---- strong buying since

Might see a buck next week

[Balance]

Volume growing - looks like it will be close to 2m by market close. That's a good sign for a pivot and momentum shift.

Needs PEB to close a deal on Medicare, Medicaid and/or Veterans Benefits anytime next 3 months and sp will be at least $1.25 IMO.

"Pacific Edge anticipates commencing negotiations in earnest with Medicare and Medicaid in July 2013, with this continuing until August 2014. Pacific Edge has already conducted preliminary discussions."




:D

[Copper]

Some of you are going to get a coronary, judging the postings on this thread.

Cool calm cucumbers, guys.
Balance you know as well as I that after their 3 months of coronary's and ICU admissions it's going to take a week at least for them to settle down and the price will be north of 90...(or 55 and another month of the same)

[robbo24]

If you extend your chart a bit further (2 years) it doesn't really look like there is any kind of "gap" between 70 and 50.

70 looked like strong resistance a year and a bit ago. The amateur traders gap (if you want to call it a gap, technically the big white stick from 70 to 170 isn't a gap) was surely that big rise upwards. Fear of missing out.

Is 70 the bottom? Remains to be seen, will watch with great interest.

70 was, after all, strong ass resistance so will it now be strong ass support?

Man, I'm practically the new moosie_900.

[Dentie]

I'd suggest some investors are "crying" as well Dentie and it is about the company and the business! You don't have to agree but it most certainly is the reality. Only takes 2 minutes of reading tis thread to see it!

I get your point that you think true long investors will be shaking this off, but some true investors are not. They are either 1) hurting right now - a lot of them in the red or 2) have bailed on this sometime on its way down from $1.75 to $0.75.

Remember also that investing long does not necessarily mean blindly holding no matter what the SP does. Many longs got out long ago when the signs were there that the SP was not going to hold. That doesn't make them traders, it simply means they were ahead of the game a little.

Thanks for the insight Mr T. May I suggest the only reason true investors would be crying is they didn't buy in at what might be termed the correct time. I would think most "investors" would base their buying decisions based on doing some fundamental analysis first (with the buy button being pressed on some TA perhaps?). With the SP roaring upwards so rapidly from October last year, it appeared to be driven by traders. This thread has been so loud in its stance of there "not being any sales" to justify the SP - so down she goes. That being the case (in hindsight of course), why would one buy in BEFORE the release of sales?

[biker]

goonna gert thumped towards that 55 - 60c level

Not today. Closed up 5% at 81c.

[Dentie]

Even investors occasionally get caught up in the hype. I know I did. My fault for not doing enough research, but hey I'm only human. :)

As we all are NG. I was one of the ones who got caught in the little bit of hype generated on the SNK thread. We all hopefully learn our lessons though.

[bull....]

give it time biker i never say today

[winner69]

Methinks are few did bull

Capitulation (the final wash out) was late morning at 68/69 ---- strong buying since

Might see a buck next week

Buck next week a real possibility now that capitulation has happened. Last time I saw a good clean out was MBE at 17 cents odd ....went all the way to 35 after that

And balance is talking $1.25 foe PEB - soon he said

Jeez $1.25 would be a 75% gain ...nice

Hope you joined the fun snaps

[Copper]

It's getting late in the day it's all,you said,I said ,he said ,and whether you ar FA or TA. Etc etc.From a person who does not know the highly technical stuff on charting and has limited financial acumen my tuppence worth is that the thing is starting to slow up on it's slide and we are looking at that 65/70 area where we started from.We may not get there but there is a possibility that region may be hit on a bad NASDAQ,bad weather and grumpy poster day,if only the final panic.My gut feeling is that a bid left in to buy around that level would not be a bad approach.If by chance you got some I think no one including Snapiti ,Moosie and Balance would think other than a reasonable gamble.....Just an opinion .cheers.

Interesting in hindsight.They were 85.Therefore by this research all you need is a grumpy poster day like today....cheers

[Minerbarejet]

Buck next week a real possibility now that capitulation has happened. Last time I saw a good clean out was MBE at 17 cents odd ....went all the way to 35 after that

And balance is talking $1.25 foe PEB - soon he said

Jeez $1.25 would be a 75% gain ...nice

Hope you joined the fun snaps
Thats what I'm waiting for. Snapiti to become the raging bull again. Not far away me thinks.

[okane]

not sure I am a raging bull I did buy back half my shares I sold at 95cps last week for 70cps today.
That's no big secrete as I did PM 3 people that I had done it earlier today.

What's the opposite of a pump and dump? Bag and snag?

[Bobcat.]

Wouldn't wish that on anyone!

Well, we finally had our capitulation and bounce. Question is, will it be a dead cat bounce?

You still holding BC?

Yep, a couple of weeks ago when I discovered PEB had almost all NZ's DHBs on board, I decided to put what I bought for $1.02 into my bottom drawer (LT investment), and look for separate trading opportunities after the May 30 result.

20 mins after today's market open, I put a good sized bid on market at 68c. First drop bounced off 69, and then rose to 75. I pulled my bid and turned my attention to other stocks. By the time I came back, it had dropped again to just touch 68c but was up again to 76c, and not so appealing to the trader in me...but (wisdom in hindsight) if I'd left my bid @68, some of it would probably have been hit. I still think my strategy was sound, only this time the big trout I was stalking got away by a wisker.

We got a higher close today but still both a lower low and lower high than yesterday, and so tomorrow may present another opportunity to buy low. For what it's worth, I'm picking a low in the low 70's tomorrow and a higher high, with the resistance at 85c (and possibly 90c) tested by the weekend...unless of course there's a market announcement in which case I'll be eating my words.

Either way, I'm a holder.

Are you out for good, or still hunting?

[Minerbarejet]

What's the opposite of a pump and dump? Bag and snag? slag and bag, maybe

[winner69]

not sure I am a raging bull I did buy back half my shares I sold at 95cps last week for 70cps today.
That's no big secrete as I did PM 3 people that I had done it earlier today.

Well done Snapiti, you will be well rewarded ..again

This must be becoming one of most favoured shares

[blocker3]

Question. What is there, to stop the slide south in the next few months as the announcements are all made this quarter? Great intention,great company,will preform in the long term. However I think we all got over excited on the price to fast.

[winner69]

as I told you in my PM to you earlier today I thought this post from you earlier in the day was spot on the money.
Nice stuff.

I reckon sell at $1.10 (balances $1.25 is a bit of a stretch) and then buy 1/2 back at 65 cents again when the price collapses again when hundreds of thousand of tests don't eventuate

Good plan?

[MAC]

Have been buying for 3 days and have planned to spread purchases over a 5 day stretch - subject to there being no major price increase. Average of resent purchases now .7854 which I am pretty happy with.

Well done thus far BK, it takes good discipline to recognise value and to get the volume you want with noisy traders going the other way at full speed.

[couta1]

Had a hard day at the office catching heaps of blue cod,tarakihi and the odd snapper out in cook straight ,checked the price when I got home and saw 81c, lot to be said for only checking the price once a day aye winner, took me half hour to read this thread for the day and chuck out the BS, no tears from me, good things take time just like taking home your bag limit of fish does when your fishing mate wants to move after 10 mins of no bites, told the man to be patient and the rewards come with an overflowing fish bin by days end, is there a lesson for PEB holders here?:cool:

[MAC]

“Speculation is perfectly all right, but if you stay there you've only founded a superstition. If you test it, you've started a science” - Hal Clemant.

“The less you really understand, the more speculative something may seem” - Mac.

[stoploss]

Had a hard day at the office catching heaps of blue cod,tarakihi and the odd snapper out in cook straight ,checked the price when I got home and saw 81c, lot to be said for only checking the price once a day aye winner, took me half hour to read this thread for the day and chuck out the BS, no tears from me, good things take time just like taking home your bag limit of fish does when your fishing mate wants to move after 10 mins of no bites, told the man to be patient and the rewards come with an overflowing fish bin by days end, is there a lesson for PEB holders here?:cool:

Couta that you sitting on top of Barretts reef today ?5895

[stoploss]

Hi Snapiti, I think you should leave the term speculative out of your posts regarding Pacific Edge and focus more on identifying your low risk profile.

Speculation:

One of the definitions of the word speculation is, reasoning based on inconclusive evidence.

However; speculation is not necessarily a bad thing, it does bring money into the markets and after all some people earn fortunes from speculation.

Too true Hancocks " You have to speculate to accumulate "

[sommelier]

Can anyone with an NBR subscription please tell us what the article 'U.S. stock pumpers target Kiwi-owned biotech patent' is about?

[p2r]

Can anyone with an NBR subscription please tell us what the article 'U.S. stock pumpers target Kiwi-owned biotech patent' is about?

It is about a vet Paddy Casey who has patents for some cell something or other but is no longer linked to this penny dreadful that still gets some speculation in the state.

[GTM 3442]

I can't help but wonder what Phaedrus would have made of all this hoop-la.

I suppose it would have been as entertaing as educational as always.

[Casino]

I am very happy with my punt in this highly speculative stock.
I would like to know your formula for valuing PEB black knat but all I hear is blah blah blah

So let me get this straight. You deem a mcap of 300m as irrational but a momentary valuation of 220m as attractive enough to strike? In other words, what separates bulls and bears in the way they value PEB corresponds to 60% of how much Xero moved today?

[Copper]

It will be very interesting to see if the mood changes on the thread if she drifts back below 80 again....A lot of pent up bullish sentiment that may get wobbly.....

[Balance]

It will be very interesting to see if the mood changes on the thread if she drifts back below 80 again....A lot of pent up bullish sentiment that may get wobbly.....

She's a roller coaster ride and me thinkth some are now happy to be just off the ride.

:D

[Copper]

I don't think you tend to get the "I told you so" element so much from those who think the stock is currently good value.

Yes I agree.Watching late yesterday there was a lot of what I would call relief exuberance which I thought could reverse just as quickly.If it stays around 70/80 we may even see the thread die for a day or two.That would be a letdown for the spectators. Cheers

[Bobcat.]

It will be very interesting to see if the mood changes on the thread if she drifts back below 80 again....A lot of pent up bullish sentiment that may get wobbly.....

I would say it's almost certain to go lower before it goes higher. Into the low 70's to confirm an inverse head and shoulder before lifting again is my pick.

Discl: Holding a small parcel, with a bid on market to get more in the low 70s.

If however it bounces today off a low in the upper 70s , that's more bullish and the sp may well go on to test 90c tomorrow (major resistance). I'll be selling just short of there if it gets that high.

Remember : dead cat bounces normally last only two or three days.

[Dentie]

what relevance has XRO got with PEB, grabbing at straws by the looks of things.
I sold my stake in PEB after the latest announcement so I am happy to sell any share to any investor who wants to buy it if I think it is over valued given the current announcement especially if I believe I will be able to purchase the share's back for a lot less(27%less) if I chose to do so.
I even stated on this thread I was interested in doing so.
In fact it feels quite good to purchase my investment back a week later and have several thousands of $ left over.
Just booked and paid for a 7 day cruise for my partner and myself with that money..... I am very popular in my house at the moment. Happy wife = happy life

It's taken a wee while ... but I have been fully expecting this "nah, nah, nah, nah, nah" comment. Glad to finally have that out of the way now.

[MAC]

Hi NewGuy,

There was quite a lot of discussion on the thread last year in such regard, such posts are increasingly hard to find with all the chit chat.

DCF is generally recognised as the predominant method of valuation for growth stocks, those whom seem to struggle with a full work up tend to try and use metrics like P/S or PE, however you may find as do many others that applying metrics in isolation for growth stocks may lead you astray.

Genuinely hope this assists you;

many regards, Mac


Over the last few weeks we’ve had some posts providing some novel valuation methods for PEB.

Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.

Below are some links which I’ve found useful for biotechnology analysis and valuation over the last 12 months, happy to share with others.

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_CA/ca/industries/tmt/b6115312b90fb110VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/biotechvaluation.asp

[Casino]

what relevance has XRO got with PEB, grabbing at straws by the looks of things.
I sold my stake in PEB after the latest announcement so I am happy to sell any share to any investor who wants to buy it if I think it is over valued given the current announcement especially if I believe I will be able to purchase the share's back for a lot less(27%less) if I chose to do so.
I even stated on this thread I was interested in doing so.
In fact it feels quite good to purchase my investment back a week later and have several thousands of $ left over.
Just booked and paid for a 7 day cruise for my partner and myself with that money..... I am very popular in my house at the moment. Happy wife = happy life

Good on you for making a quick trade and putting it to good use! We all know about price swings but we were originally discussing whether PEB is a fundamentally good investment.
Do you think the current valuation is appropriate if PEB can deliver on the 100m revenue target?
Do you think that Cxbladder can establish itself as a widely used product and fetch 100m?

If not, why did you buy at 70c/220m, which is likely a discount to your own valuation?

[Beagle]

Thanks for sharing that info Mac :)

[Casino]

what relevance has XRO got with PEB, grabbing at straws by the looks of things.


As far as the relevance to Xero goes, I consider the tiny discrepancy between your valuation and market valuation insignificant for the big picture and the long run.

[winner69]

Action a bit on the slow side today. Not too much volume so far

Reckon plenty of pent up demand here .... todays only Thursday so how about 90 by close of Friday

[Minerbarejet]

Well Houston Texas should be getting an earful about cxbladder very soon.
Notice that PEB did not exhibit last year at this event.
Also notice that Predictive did attend as well as mdx
Only forty five exhibitors
Maybe they will have a "field day":)

[Tsuba]

Houston we have lift off.

[Xerof]

Nothing mate, 82/83 last 83 on light volume

[Whipmoney]

Hi NewGuy,

There was quite a lot of discussion on the thread last year in such regard, such posts are increasingly hard to find with all the chit chat.

DCF is generally recognised as the predominant method of valuation for growth stocks, those whom seem to struggle with a full work up tend to try and use metrics like P/S or PE, however you may find as do many others that applying metrics in isolation for growth stocks may lead you astray.

Genuinely hope this assists you;

many regards, Mac

I'm not sure if you were referring to me in that post as I was one of the few whom mentioned PEB's extremely high P/S ratio (37,000+ in october) however just for clarity I wasn't using this in isolation, rather I was comparable it to the historical P/S ratios for a similar company at a similar stage in their growth trajectory. My analysis showed that PEB's market cap (and therefore share-price) was extremely over-valued relative to a comparable company that was previously in a similar commercialisation phase.

I mentioned this several times in the thread, and not long after we saw a masssive retraction. Not boasting that I called it but the numbers at the time did show she was way off her fundamental value, at least as far as an early stage biotech/cancer diagnostic company goes.

[geo]

I'm out sold all my holding for a very good profit very happy. Will keep my eye on it but wont buy in until after the AGM and if the numbers look much better than the last 6 months might get back in.

I will be interested in Mac's valuation plus the other ones coming out. Will use part of my profit to invest more in the ASX plenty of opportunities over there.

[Minerbarejet]

Cellmid CDY:ASX will be looking forward to a huge royalty of $5.40 or is it 54c. On that basis its probably fair to say its unlikely CDY will be paying a dividend this year.
Probably not enough left after tax.:)

[nextbigthing]

http://pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/where-we-are/nz/

'In 2012, PEDNZ signed a non-exclusive agreement with Labtests to sell Cxbladder within the Auckland / Northland regions'

This concerns me.

Some time around mid last year I think it was, there was a full page ad for CxBladder in AIRNZ's KiaOra magazine. I thought that was a great idea. Yet seemingly the uptake has been very slow and some important people don't even know the product exists...

My point being, if they're struggling get traction after a few years in NZ, then how are they going to do it in the US? They may, but I fear it will be a long and expensive road.

As someone else said in their post, what incentive is there for US Urologists to use the product? Why should they change?

I don't think anybody is debating what an amazing product this is, that seems to be one thing everyone agrees on. But there's more to it than that. A great product will not necessarily sell itself or even get used. But concerningly $9mil won't sell it either yet. What are PEB doing to address this now?

Before I get red carded for downramping, please understand I'm still holding some PEB and I still support the company/product 100%. But I'm not in love with it and will not blindly leave my money in it. Questions need to be asked, investing is dynamic.

I'm sure a lot of questions are going to be asked and answered at the AGM. I hope they're planning on being there a while! I've seen some great questions to be asked on here. I think we should make a list of questions from sharetrader members to be presented* at the AGM with the answers to be posted here for everyones benefit.

I hope for the sake of patients, all investors and NZ in general PEB can crack this.

Happy investing,

NBT

*presented = correct terminology to keep Winner happy :)

[GRIFFIN]

Sold most of my holding as i feel the money is better in alternative companies at this point, long term I think PEB could well deliver but until there is strong evidence of sales its too risky for me and it may be some way off before confirmation of good sales are posted.

[nextbigthing]

Thanks for the reply Hancocks, some points/questions in the text...


Hi NBT, good points:

The advertisements (radio, TV and print) will bring bladder cancer symptoms (haematuria) and Cxbladder to the fore and obviously with the DHB’s on-board there will be growth in NZ
Applying this rate of growth/uptake to the US, it would be a few years before they were turning a profit which is concerning. I understand they're probably putting more resources into it in the US, however it appears to be a slower process over there to start with. These resources are effectively our money and they may realistically need more. They got away with announcing a slow uptake this time, next time I feel the market won't be very forgiving.

Why would an urologist want to change?

This is a regular post; and, the other often asked is why they would use a test of a few hundred dollars when they can use several thousand.

First of all, the cost of a full urological work up is an expensive and resource heavy process with a margin for the clinician, a Cxbladder test is quick, simple and accurate, there is also a margin in the test for the clinician and at full smoke will be a high volume test, so there are good fees to be made
For the high volume test versus a full work up, if they're going for high volume then they're going to need more patients, of which there's a fixed amount (thankfully). Getting more patients would mean cannilbalizing off other practioners = no use.
I'm not in the medical industry but I still get the feeling Urologists are going to be thinking 'great I can use this test but at the end of the day I still want to have a look around myself anyway so what's the point'.
Plus there's probably a degree of, 'I like the resource heavy model because I can justify charging a bigger cut that the insurance companies are paying for because I have to pay my pretty assistant who I'd like to keep around', which is a sad reality of the system.

The patients like the convenience too; monitoring tests can be done at home and sent to the lab by courier, with the results going straight to the urologist
Agreed. I'm sure patients will love it. But I feel if they go to a doctor with a problem, 90% are probably going to do what the doctor says instead of walking in and demanding a CxBladder test. And if the doctor is saying they think a full inspection is the best bet, then most people will probably just accept that and do what Doc says.

Also, look at this scenario:
Imagine I have just been diagnosed with bladder cancer, would I sit back and wait for appointments and tests to be made for me? No, I would be sending Cxbladder tests to Pacific Edge Diagnostics and they would be forwarding the results to my urologist, he/she could review the results and communicate with me. I would have some degree of control or ‘would be fully in the loop’ don’t worry about that!
Agreed. However interestingly in this scenario you have already been diagnosed, which method was used? :)


Perhaps they are hoping people are going to end up using both a full work up and their test. However how are they going to convince providers to pay for both, increasing the overall cost. I know a full work-up doesn't always 'see' everything but CxBladder is a 'one trick pony' to an extent itself.

Cheers,

NBT

[nextbigthing]

Another point of interest was the advertising of the lab technician role. What does it mean?

a) They are actually starting to see some traction and they need processing power. Good news
b) They're anticipating seeing some traction and a being proactive. They knew the release of the results was going to disappoint but they wanted to signal everything's ok. Expensive hopefully good news.
c) They need someone to update the facebook page and receive the weekly test sample. Bad news.
d) They advertised the role but have no intention of filling it. It was a ploy to keep the troops happy and soften the latest poor sales announcement.

Who knows? NBT

ps answer d is for Snapiti.

[winner69]

Maybe the deathly silence and lack of comment from PEB about the disaster of a result is because the due diligence team from some big bio/pharma company is hanging around ......and the next announcement will be BIG

[Minerbarejet]

Lab technician: a
CS or market: CS
Cheers
Miner

[couta1]

At the moment Snapiti I tend to sway toward CS as the market is currently exhibiting schizophrenic tendencies as can be seen with other tech stocks like SLI:cool:

[Tsuba]

This from CS in the latest announcement points to complete denial of a disaster result.

Chairman of Pacific Edge, Chris Swann, said: “During
the year it has been affirmed to us that our product,
Cxbladder, is in strong demand as an accurate tool for
the detection of bladder cancer.

Which do you believe the markets or CS.


Unless CS is a total lier I would rather take his word than the Lemming effect of the market responce.

[Mista_Trix]

Unless CS is a total lier I would rather take his word than the Lemming effect of the market responce.

He's clearly very bullish on his own company, which makes it hard to know where to differentiate fact and hope.

DD I find a much more accurate barometer, a little more down to earth.

[warthog]

When you fools finish gobbing off and having your girlie bitch fest; then perhaps we can get back to some sensible discussion. Me thinks eh!

There are those who have never held PEB. They can be set aside.

Then there are those who were in PEB but exited above $1.70.

Then there are those who continued to hold PEB all the way to current level.

Who are the fools here?

(the above a general observation -- the hog isn't pointing figures at anyone in particular, but is sure some will self-identify)

[couta1]

Unless CS is a total lier I would rather take his word than the Lemming effect of the market responce.
Yep a big study I read up on in the weekend showed results that the market is irrational and emotion driven as much as some think otherwise.

[couta1]

There are those who have never held PEB. They can be set aside.

Then there are those who were in PEB but exited above $1.70.

Then there are those who continued to hold PEB all the way to current level.

Who are the fools here?

(the above a general observation -- the hog isn't pointing figures at anyone in particular, but is sure some will self-identify)
You forgot to mention those that didn't sell at $1.70 because they are long and waiting for it to get to $5, foolish aye:cool:

[Minerbarejet]

Really? You believe Chris Swann given his record to date? That's quite remarkable
His record being what exactly? A comment quoted in the ODT as to 10s of thousands of tests in 2014?
Last I looked it was only June. I really wouldnt take that 175 odd tests as being too indicative of future gains and they are all including DD quite positive that things are going well.
Do you really think that the people running this company are not that clued up so that they cant recognise when something they say could come along later and bite them on the bum.
At the AGM for example.
And especially after the reaction to 10/1000 comment they would tend to be careful with their choice of words.
So along comes "strong demand", they could have said "reasonable, average, moderate, encouraging" but no, they elected to use "strong".
This to me means that something is up and as it is not the share price then it must be the sales.
Cheers
Miner

[MAC]

Ode to all the naive and under researched expectations dashed.

Quite an innovative company Pacific Edge, progressing a product or series of products from development in the Dunedin lab to commercialisation in the US, but it seems that some would think such a venture takes just a handful of months to achieve, and have similar attention spans to match.

Pacific Edge have not been marketing commercially in New Zealand for years as some have commented, yes they have sold a few tests in parallel with their research and development programme as a way of gaining feedback from specific urologists. Commercialisation effectively started in earnest when the user programmes finished last year and when they signed up their first DHB. Less than a year and ticking and it will take the time that it duly requires.

Similarly in the US, they’ve been going for less than a year and sales will come after they have the network providers on board and then start to progressively engage with the 4,000 or so insurers, HMO’s and corporate health plans associated with those network providers. Next and or in parallel comes some work with the LUG’s to achieve policy amendments. Then, after all that good ground work is well under way, then we will start to see sales.

This first year maybe the first eighteen months is not about sales figures, they are not important in the big picture, it’s the progress on the commercialisation timeline that is important, the sales will come when they come.

Pacific Edge have reaffirmed the five year goal, and it seems to me they are presently doing what’s required to achieve it just fine.

[nextbigthing]

Ode to all the naive and under researched expectations dashed.

Quite an innovative company Pacific Edge, progressing a product or series of products from development in the Dunedin lab to commercialisation in the US, but it seems that some would think such a venture takes just a handful of months to achieve, and have similar attention spans to match.

Pacific Edge have not been marketing commercially in New Zealand for years as some have commented, yes they have sold a few tests in parallel with their research and development programme as a way of gaining feedback from specific urologists. Commercialisation effectively started in earnest when the user programmes finished last year and when they signed up their first DHB. Less than a year and ticking and it will take the time that it duly requires.

Similarly in the US, they’ve been going for less than a year and sales will come after they have the network providers on board and then start to progressively engage with the 4,000 or so insurers, HMO’s and corporate health plans associated with those network providers. Next and or in parallel comes some work with the LUG’s to achieve policy amendments. Then, after all that good ground work is well under way, then we will start to see sales.

This first year maybe the first eighteen months is not about sales figures, they are not important in the big picture, it’s the progress on the commercialisation timeline that is important, the sales will come when they come.

Pacific Edge have reaffirmed the five year goal, and it seems to me they are presently doing what’s required to achieve it just fine.

Thanks MAC for engaging in some intelligent conversation.

The following is straight off the website - http://pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/where-we-are/nz/

" Cxbladder was first introduced to the New Zealand market in 2011 through Pacific Edge Diagnostics NZ (PEDNZ), a wholly owned subsidiary of Pacific Edge Ltd.
PEDNZ manages the sales and marketing of the Cxbladder test in New Zealand as well performing testing and reagent qualification services through their centralised laboratory in Dunedin.
In 2012, PEDNZ signed a non-exclusive agreement with Labtests to sell Cxbladder within the Auckland / Northland regions. "

If the user programs which have finished were successful, wouldn't it lead to decent use of the product if the product really offered substantial benefits? Seemingly we haven't seen that?

If it's still to come then that's great news, but the slow uptake it NZ is mirrored in the US (and I'm led to believe the US will be more complicated) then maybe all is not as rosy as they're hoping?

I'm not stirring, I'm trying to verify information, test my theories, get a feeling for the future and learn something.

Cheers,
NBT

[skid]

His record being what exactly? A comment quoted in the ODT as to 10s of thousands of tests in 2014?
Last I looked it was only June. I really wouldnt take that 175 odd tests as being too indicative of future gains and they are all including DD quite positive that things are going well.
Do you really think that the people running this company are not that clued up so that they cant recognise when something they say could come along later and bite them on the bum.
At the AGM for example.
And especially after the reaction to 10/1000 comment they would tend to be careful with their choice of words.
So along comes "strong demand", they could have said "reasonable, average, moderate, encouraging" but no, they elected to use "strong".
This to me means that something is up and as it is not the share price then it must be the sales.
Cheers
Miner


Surely you dont expect either one of these guys to do anything besides promoting their product.

Ive finally got a reply from my doctor friend in the States (she was consulting with an acquaintance who is in involved in marketing in the medical field)
He has confirmed that it is very difficult to break in to the US market and that the most successful co.s have come in on the back of another large company (in the case of the example he was giving it was Johnson and Johnson) The deal was done early in the show.
He said that in most cases going it alone, is a long hard road ,and requires throwing considerable money around.
He unfortunately didnt know about PEB specifically.
Of course the third option is a takeover. This is different from joining forces right from the start. If the co. in question is established it will attract a good price--if it is struggling it will be bargain basement.
He mentioned the new excise tax in the medical instruments field ,but didnt know if it pertained to medical tests.

He mentioned that everyone is having to sharpen their pencils with Obamacare in the wings

DYOR

[Xerof]

Thanks MAC for engaging in some intelligent conversation.

The following is straight off the website - http://pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/where-we-are/nz/

" Cxbladder was first introduced to the New Zealand market in 2011 through Pacific Edge Diagnostics NZ (PEDNZ), a wholly owned subsidiary of Pacific Edge Ltd.
PEDNZ manages the sales and marketing of the Cxbladder test in New Zealand as well performing testing and reagent qualification services through their centralised laboratory in Dunedin.
In 2012, PEDNZ signed a non-exclusive agreement with Labtests to sell Cxbladder within the Auckland / Northland regions. "

If the user programs which have finished were successful, wouldn't it lead to decent use of the product if the product really offered substantial benefits? Seemingly we haven't seen that?

If it's still to come then that's great news, but the slow uptake it NZ is mirrored in the US (and I'm led to believe the US will be more complicated) then maybe all is not as rosy as they're hoping?

I'm not stirring, I'm trying to verify information, test my theories, get a feeling for the future and learn something.

Cheers,
NBT

if you listen to that radio interview that DD gave a while back, you can detect a level of frustration at progress made with DHB's. If I recall correctly, this dissonance led to the arrangement they subsequently announced with the outfit that is meant to hasten uptake across 4 DHB's.

remember, this is all in the recent past, and they have moved on since the end of March. We don't have any updates, other than the written, signed commentary in the Prelim.

[MAC]

Yeah, I think we all just need to watch over time Nextbigthing.

Perhaps Hancock's has the article at his fingertips, last year DD suggested that the US market is much more focused on the economics of health delivery and the use of health/dollar type metrics as assessment criteria. I hope that is proves to be the case in a cxbladder context, it's early days and time will tell, but I'm anticipating the lure of the one third reduction in work up costs will have some affinity with the insurers.

In a way though I don't mind Pacific Edge taking as long as is required in negotiations with Medicare and the HMO's as price point and policy application are important matters not to be rushed.

It would be nice to see a strategy presentation from PEB about here with their plan laid out in a way that we all can easily follow and tick off milestones against, let’s see.

many regards, Mac

[Minerbarejet]

well put miner and this is a classic example of how easy it is to get people to believe what they want to believe.Or possibly how hard it is to get them to believe what you want them to believe, unless you believe in it yourself.

[MAC]

There is a risk, a common one with startup ventures, and the difficulty for shorter term investors as Xerof point's out is how does one assess progress to allay associated concerns.

I agree with those that suggest PEB could do a little more to convey progress in a way that doesn't require a pHD or the hours of idle time that I seem to have.

One way of having a look at the costs is to assess against a forward scale, they have told us that costs will be around $14M for FY15. They have also estimated for us that gross margins will be around 81% toward the end of the five year plan, so costs should grow progressively over the five years from $14M up to around let's say $30M or so.

In terms of another capital raising being required, well let’s see, they don't need any revenues for 12 to 18 months. As a startup that pretty typical, and I suspect if PEB thought they needed more cash they could probably have raised it last year, the raising was well oversubscribed.

We may simply have to wait until the AGM to assess how things are going, the next check point after that would then be the November HY.

So there are a couple of assessment opportunities along the way. I would like to see quarterly reporting also for these very reasons too.

[nextbigthing]

Anybody going to this? Posted on the PEB website today

Posted on June 6th, 2014
Are you attending the MTANZ 2014 Healthcare Congress in Auckland on Monday? If so, the Pacific Edge team will see you there!

"We’re constantly hearing that the current model of healthcare delivery is unsustainable. Innovation is no longer optional - it’s essential. It is also the path to success. If we can create value through earlier detection, more effective treatment, and new models of delivery – we will secure the future of our industry. We’ll also help patients worldwide to lead longer, more productive lives." MTANZ | NZHITC

[robbo24]

p.s. I am yet to receive a response from DD to my email and subsequent follow up. Great communication right there.

Even an email to say that it had been received would be a useful start. But alas...

I wouldn't reply to that particular email either :)

Why don't you apologise and start afresh?

[Minerbarejet]

Time for a reread.
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/6...tech-partnersh (http://www.interest.co.nz/business/67034/andrew-patterson-talks-david-darling-pacific-edge-about-making-key-bio-tech-partnersh)

[Minerbarejet]

Shortlist of positives that have been discussed
1. Edison to resume coverage of PEB
2. CMS "advanced" ( whatever that means)
3. Other providers "advanced"
4. Hiring extra lab staff
5. AGM where a lot of punters are going to let it all hang out by the looks.
6. Possibility of quarterly updates on sales figures
7. Possibility of some extra enlightenment either in an investor update
8. or through the Final Report at end of June
9. More Seminars and Conferences in US, AUS, NZ
10. Two extra cxB products and advancing cxColorectal.
11. Nov sales report
12 Snapiti has bought in and will shortly turn bullish again.:)

[Bobcat.]

Shortlist of positives that have been discussed
...
4. Hiring extra lab staff


Why would this be 'positive', M? Given the lack of Sales, I for one do not want my money currently invested in PEB to pay surplus staff to sit around surfing the Internet, or whatever they're doing, waiting until whenever for samples to arrive.

How hard can it be to ramp up lab technician capability as and when sales eventuate? Hiring practices overly optimistic are nothing short of reckless and money down the gurgler.

[robbo24]

pffft. He could at least have the balls to acknowledge the email.

Apologise? No chance.

Hahaha... It would be foolhardy of him if he did respond to your email.

I wouldn't hold your breath my friend.

If you really want it your way there's what's called a company constitution, a shareholder agreement, an AGM (or egm) and what's called a vote.

Use the remedies available to you as a shareholder, rather than send emotionally charged emails.

If other shareholders agree with you then they will vote with you.

There's no better way to destroy your own investment, if you are a shareholder, than what you were seemingly intent on doing in your email.

Just saying. I still think you're a good guy.

[psychic]

BC - Again, we do not know hiw many tests they are doing. Tgey may be paid tests, they may be free under a user programme. Either way, we need the lab busy

[Tsuba]

Number 12 is the clincher. A Snapster.

[Copper]

dont be so sure as it was a very tough decision where I invested the money between either PEB or meeting 1, race 8, horse number 2 this Saturday.
That just about sum's up my confidence :p
Just remember when on that cruise you can sell some shares to pay for drinks but you can't sell the horse......

[nextbigthing]

Why would this be 'positive', M? Given the lack of Sales, I for one do not want my money currently invested in PEB to pay surplus staff to sit around surfing the Internet, or whatever they're doing, waiting until whenever for samples to arrive.

How hard can it be to ramp up lab technician capability as and when sales eventuate? Hiring practices overly optimistic are nothing short of reckless and money down the gurgler.

Precisely BC. Meaning

A) Sales have eventuated (hopefully)
B) Snapiti was on the right track - they have no intention of hiring and made an announcement to soften the blow (hopefully not)
C) They are silly and are burning cash unnecessarily (hopefully not).

Fingers crossed it's A. Imagine B) Snapiti on the right track! ;)

[Dentie]

Here's a part of what Ricky had to say ....

Rickey Ward, JBWere's New Zealand equity manager, says the company is merely going through the "growing pains" that all high growth start-ups have to endure.
"Management indicate that the company has sufficient funds to cater for budgeted growth over the next two years and funding is typically the single biggest issue that kills these companies," Ward says.
"Pacific Edge has finally started to achieve some modest trading revenue so everything looks promising so far but investors will require significant momentum for the next leg."
The company posted a full-year loss of $9.4 million last week, up from a loss of $6.9 million in the previous year. Revenue in the 12 months to March 31 this year rose to $523,000 from $182,000 a year earlier.
Pacific Edge has established a laboratory, where its tests are processed, in the US state of Pennsylvania and has established relationships with four national health networks in that country.
The company, which hopes to hit annual revenue of $100 million in the US within the next five years, is chasing deals with other major providers such as the Veterans Administration, a provider of healthcare to former members of the US armed forces, and the Centres for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which oversees government-funded health insurance programmes for senior citizens and low-income earners.
The announcement of a deal with either of those providers could set off another rally in the stock.

Time to just wait and see I guess...

[Dentie]

And who says bladder cancer is limited to humans. I wonder if CxBladder can be adapted for dogs and animals?

http://phys.org/news/2014-06-cancer-assay-aid-dogs-humans.html

Now, wouldn't that boost sales!

[Tsuba]

bugger...... you are on to me as that was the determining factor

If the share price doubles on your holiday you can get really pissed.

[Lost in space]

If the share price doubles on your holiday you can get really pissed.

And possibly doubling annual sales...

[ziggy415]

dont be so sure as it was a very tough decision where I invested the money between either PEB or meeting 1, race 8, horse number 2 this Saturday.
That just about sum's up my confidence :p
cant make up my mind...race 1 at terapa has the the auld Floosie...race 2 has hot in pink and race 3 has fast and georgous ...which one best describes you..ha ha...good to see this thread has returned to normal and the snipping has settled down....money definetly guides peoples principles....some good informative posts...heck i may even invest:t_up:

[Copper]

cant make up my mind...race 1 at terapa has the the auld Floosie...race 2 has hot in pink and race 3 has fast and georgous ...which one best describes you..ha ha...good to see this thread has returned to normal and the snipping has settled down....money definetly guides peoples principles....some good informative posts...heck i may even invest:t_up:
Yep thread has returned to normal.No sales after quarter to five,no day traders settling up,no insto's tidying up the books before the weekend.Reason,!! All gone off to the pub...it's Friday ...Grief!!!

[winner69]

Hey Snaps clear out your PM - I have something for you

Probably PM full of abuse anyway - just press the delete inbox button

[Minerbarejet]

yep my PM filled up quickly in the last two weeks...... thanks winner all cleared.

I am surprised at the amount of people who don't post on the open forums but choose to PM...... you might be even more surprised that 90% openly encourage my up front postings.
This is a good timely reminder to all posters that many are watching and you don't have to be contributing to see all in fact you don't even have to be a member to see all on this very public forum.
Brilliant, Snap.
With that post you have probably single handedly turned off most of the participation or intended postings on this thread.:)

[Copper]

hope not miner as that was not my intention but I think most would agree that when posting on here it is easy to forget that you are just not communicating to a select few.
Talking about the "select few" which has quite a regal sound to it I must say....I recall last week when there were over 100 watching the thread and I think it was only15-20 were members.....

[Whipmoney]

I admire your knowledge, research and optimism about PEB MAC but feel that you as well as many investors are missing the fact that given poor sales traction has been confirmed that there is a good chance the company is not to keen on providing more detailed information to the market on current progress due to a lack of it.
PEB management are not shy of putting a positive spin on things and I am quite sure if they had something that was the least bit positive to say to the market it would and will be forthcoming.
I am confident the lack of definitive clarity available over progress may well suit the company right now.

Snapiti - you keep reiterating that PEB has had poor sales traction however I am wondering as to how you have objectively quantified this?

In terms of the bio-tech / cancer test assay market how exactly do you define what constitutes great, good or poor sales traction for new entrants like PEB?

Are you basing this on comparing PEB's performance to comparable companies or are you simply stating that their performance was "poor" due to their low level of of absolute sales?

I.e whats your rationale?

[Carpenterjoe]

I believe when you take into consideration the time cx bladder has been available for sale in NZ and in the US(sales teams have been actively on the ground selling in the US since July 2013 and earlier for NZ)combined with how long some of the user programs have been concluded as will as how extensive these user programs were(included many thousands of free tests) as well as the money that has been spent to date on these processes it is fair to say sales traction has been very poor.
Furthermore I believe the market place has picked up on the cracks that are beginning to show in the rhetoric from the company.
As I said prior to the announcement the market place will send a clear signal if the sales traction is deemed to be poor so I gather from the 30% decline soon after the announcement(not withstanding we had already seen a 40% decline in SP running up to the announcement) that it is safe to say the sales traction was considered very poor by the broader market.
Do you have any other reasons why the share price has tumbled so much ?

Or you could say the first USA sale was made on the 18 of October 2013 and the last sale for the period was in late Jan or Feb depending on their terms of trade. Take out Christmas and your looking at 170 sales in a period of 3-4 months in the USA or 1-2 tests sold each day, I don't think the period of time is great enough to determine either way.

[winner69]

Or you could say the first USA sale was made on the 18 of October 2013 and the last sale for the period was in late Jan or Feb depending on their terms of trade. Take out Christmas and your looking at 170 sales in a period of 3-4 months in the USA or 1-2 tests sold each day, I don't think the period of time is great enough to determine either way.

If the first sale was mid October than the reported revenues figure is for sales made since, ie for 5 1/2 months.

Terms of trade don't come into it ....a sale is a sale whether paid or not

[ziggy415]

Talking about the "select few" which has quite a regal sound to it I must say....I recall last week when there were over 100 watching the thread and I think it was only15-20 were members.....
hi copper, i,m one of those that sit back and read and do,nt post too much...( and when i do it sounds crap) but not all of us understand candle charts and 90 day moving average and 50 % of gobbly gook equals 10% on the bottom line... so please keep posting and informing us pleps and remember if your dunny blocks i,m your man...go the snapster your ok

[ziggy415]

oh i forgot:t_up:....just learnt that

[Carpenterjoe]

If the first sale was mid October than the reported revenues figure is for sales made since, ie for 5 1/2 months.

Terms of trade don't come into it ....a sale is a sale whether paid or not


I'm confused winner, I thought operating revenue was recognised once paid not on invoicing?

[Snow Leopard]

I'm confused winner, I thought operating revenue was recognised once paid not on invoicing?

I presume that little organisations in NZ (say, a self-employed carpenter, for instance) are still able to fill in their accounts for tax purposes on the basis of monies actually received (but I do not actually know this for certain).

However big companies work to different accounting standards and revenue recognition is often at invoice (or other circumstances).

For PEB a paying test done almost certainly equals revenue recognized as a trade receivable until it becomes a deposit in the bank.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

I presume that little organisations in NZ (say, a self-employed carpenter, for instance) are still able to fill in their accounts for tax purposes on the basis of monies actually received (but I do not actually know this for certain).

However big companies work to different accounting standards and revenue recognition is often at invoice (or other circumstances).

For PEB a paying test done almost certainly equals revenue recognized as a trade receivable until it becomes a deposit in the bank.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Some still seem to be living in hope that trade receivables are unrecorded revenues for PEB - sales were actually HEAPS BETTER than stated.

I like the subtlety in the first sentence of your post

[Beagle]

I presume that little organisations in NZ (say, a self-employed carpenter, for instance) are still able to fill in their accounts for tax purposes on the basis of monies actually received (but I do not actually know this for certain).

However big companies work to different accounting standards and revenue recognition is often at invoice (or other circumstances).

For PEB a paying test done almost certainly equals revenue recognized as a trade receivable until it becomes a deposit in the bank.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

All business's in N.Z. must complete financial statements on an accrual basis. e.g. you complete a job on 31 March 2014 and invoice it on that date. Its accounted for as income for the Y/E 31 March 2014 and is a trade receiveable as at that date, unless of course a minor miracle happens and you get paid immediatly on completion :)

[Carpenterjoe]

I presume that little organisations in NZ (say, a self-employed carpenter, for instance) are still able to fill in their accounts for tax purposes on the basis of monies actually received (but I do not actually know this for certain).

However big companies work to different accounting standards and revenue recognition is often at invoice (or other circumstances).

For PEB a paying test done almost certainly equals revenue recognized as a trade receivable until it becomes a deposit in the bank.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Cheers guys,

I'm not sure about NZ small business as I operate out of Sydney. My accountant only requires information on monies received not on invoicing, (most likely to keep things easy for her).

[couta1]

Cheers guys,

I'm not sure about NZ small business as I operate out of Sydney. My accountant only requires information on monies received not on invoicing, (most likely to keep things easy for her).
If you are a sole trader you can choose between the cash or invoice basis but at the end of the day I don't see much difference in either method for a small player and the invoice basis is tidier.

[Harvey Specter]

Cheers guys,

I'm not sure about NZ small business as I operate out of Sydney. My accountant only requires information on monies received not on invoicing, (most likely to keep things easy for her).In NZ, for GST purposes (I assume Income tax and accounts can follow), you can use cash basis if turn over is under $2m. Above that it is invoice basis and NZGAAP is probably full accrual basis which means you also have to recognize unbilled revenue (I think most companies get around this by issuing invoices dated the last day of the month).

[nextbigthing]

The shareprice has held up pretty well really. I guess that must reflect the sentiment of the price setting big boys who still see PEB as good value and being on the right track. Keep in mind they might have some inside knowledge and are happy to hold.... Good news I guess.

NBT

[skid]

My guess is that they are just as much in the dark as all of us--trying to second guess the market--got a coin?--There are events that could send this volatile share going either direction. Itrs up to us to figure which could get out of hand in terms of a larger change -fear or greed

[winner69]

My guess is that they are just as much in the dark as all of us--trying to second guess the market--got a coin?--There are events that could send this volatile share going either direction. Itrs up to us to figure which could get out of hand in terms of a larger change -fear or greed

85/86 today............90+ by end of week ...........$1 by end of month

[Bobcat.]

Resistance at 85/86 has been confirmed.

Monday's are normally quiet - even more so with the asx closed. Resistance at 90c may be tested this week. Equally probable in my view is a falling away to test support in the low 70's.

I expect it will take another positive announcement to lift the sp into the 90's. There's obviously not the same value in this stock, as perceived earlier this year, and it'll be a steep hill to climb. IMO, a substantial lift in Sales is required before we see the sp hit triple figures again.

[youngatheart]

And when exactly is the next sales report due? Not for another three months no? In which case there is PLENTY of time for the SP to rise or fall...

[Snow Leopard]

Oh right, haha. I'm willing to bet that sales for the current half year will be at least triple the same period last year, if not quadruple or more. Deal?

Trading revenue Apr-13 to Sep-13 $17,000 - if they don't do 30 times as much - you can kiss the company good bye.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Tsuba]

ok. Deal. What do you want to wager? Favourite tipple?


I hope who ever wins invites Snapster to the party.

[winner69]

Righto,

HY13 trading revenue was $17k.
HY13 total operating revenue was $183k.

FY13 trading revenue was $523k.
FY13 total operating revenue was $838k.

So, trading revenue from HY to FY (2H) was an increase of 30 times. Total operating revenue from HY to FY (2H) was an increase of 4.5 times.

Which one we taking bets on?

As a self appointed mediator it is to be TRADING REVENUE.

This the real sales number (tests etc). The other stuff making up the total is interest etc,months count

Guys - agree?
Then agree he quantum of the growth

[Snow Leopard]

Ok, so a quadrupling of trading revenue during the 1H14 to $3,352,000+ sound good NG? This takes into account the fact the Callaghan Funding will make up $500,000 - $750,000 of that. This is also below the 4.5 times revenue growth from half on half growth and seems fair to me if you're bullish!

You seem a tad confused antler man.

Trading revenue:
F13 H1: $17K
F13 H2: $506K (FY14 $523K)

F14 H1: $2M277 (being 4.5 times F13 H2)

Presumably Callaghan money will not appear in the Trading Residue but will be in Other.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Tsuba]

RIP Rick

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGOU0o9K89g&feature=kp

[Meister]

No response doesn't really surprise me, the email was near extortionate. Demanding info 'or else'.
I am not saying the topic doesn't need to be addressed but it was worded too aggressively in my opinion

[777]

ANZ securities were a mess last night. Got sorted about 1745. Problems starting to show up again this morning so suggest it is a NZX problem.

[Xerof]

Normal transmission to resume at 11.15. Market halt at moment.

[Balance]

ANZ securities were a mess last night. Got sorted about 1745. Problems starting to show up again this morning so suggest it is a NZX problem.

And a NZX problem it is :

https://www.nzx.com/regulators/NZXO/announcements/251396

[Bobcat.]

I'm out at 89c.

90c proved earlier this month to be of stronger resistance than 85c. Do not be fooled by sellers temporarily removing their 90c offers (currently only 10k is showing). That also happened when the sp rose to $1.20 after bouncing off $1 for the first time last month. No obvious sellers then wham-o.

[Mista_Trix]

I wonder if that large seller from a while bag finished offloading, or has been waiting for the price to drift further north ... ... anyone got any inklings?

[winner69]

85/86 today............90+ by end of week ...........$1 by end of month

All going to plan

Capitulation was 68/69 .....the dregs all cleaned out ....only serious punters left now

Nice

[Hoop]

I thought this is interesting enough to share....Responding to a PM last night...I mentioned the squeezed BB on the short term chart (Note:..BB's very wide on the medium term chart)

Quote;;;
......the bollinger bands are squeezed up again suggesting more short term action this week....As it is in a long term downtrend the trend investor assumption is it will go down again...However a surge upwards past 105c would make the intraday 68c low be perceived by investors as a bottom and a cyclic reversal point and they would start buying (hence the buy signal being triggered)...

So...lets see which way the price will go with the short term Bollinger band squeeze...we won't have to wait long..

We didn't have to wait long...less than 12hrs from writing
As PEB showed slight weakness near the close yesterday I personally assumed PEB price would more likely go with the long term trend, downwards rather than upwards...Wrong!!

The short term chart showing the first hour of trading this morning
Bobcats 90/91c as well as 85c resistance levels is evident here on the chart..It is now PEB's next hurdle to contend with...(not drawn in)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB10062014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB10062014.png.html)

[Bobcat.]

Well done, mate. I've been impressed with the way that you've been trading this stock (and calling the movements pretty accurately ahead of time)

Thanks NG, although I probably should've waited until it reached 90/91c. It's by the grace of God I haven't lost money on this stock. For what it's worth, I'll stay out now until either:

a) a positive announcement that improves its fundamentals, or
b) the sp drops into the mid 70's.

Uncertainty around ongoing NZX50 inclusion, sales progress, RoI from its USA operation, etc provide IMO medium term downward pressure for a few months. What could help to turn current sentiment around of course are the regular monthly updates to which DD earlier alluded. An end of June update could bring a needed boost. If that doesn't appear, I would say it's not a good sign.

[Beagle]

All going to plan

Capitulation was 68/69 .....the dregs all cleaned out ....only serious punters left now

Nice

I wonder if we'll see some profit taking from those cunning investors who stepped up to the plate at 68/9 and are now up 32% in one week.

[Copper]

I thought this is interesting enough to share....Responding to a PM last night...I mentioned the squeezed BB on the short term chart (Note:..BB's very wide on the medium term chart)

Quote;;;
[COLOR=#800000]......the bollinger bands are squeezed up again suggesting more short term action this week....As it is k85c resistance levels is evident here on the chart..It is now PEB's next hurdle to contend with...(not drawn in)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB10062014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB10062014.png.html)

Hi there Hoop.Today and the last time I tried to open your Photobucket reference my IPad seized up totally.Have you a clue why. It said Safari can't open but that's not unusual but on yours it just stops....

[winner69]

Hi there Hoop.Today and the last time I tried to open your Photobucket reference my IPad seized up totally.Have you a clue why. It said Safari can't open but that's not unusual but on yours it just stops....

Me too - don't touch Hoops pictures now

[robbo24]

Has the big seller gone away, or are they just having a rest?

Go away Huljich

(edit: thanks black knat)

[Yoda]

I have opened Hoops picture on my i pad ,no problem, FYI. Interesting too, thanks

[Goldstein]

SP hasn't exactly smashed through 0.90 with support forming. May see it drift to 0.80 - .85 over the next week on no news. What do others reckon from a TA perspective?

[robbo24]

I think the slow, orderly fall in PEB's shareprice has given the big sellers a good opportunity to pay their last respects.

Perhaps time for slow, orderly increase in PEB's shareprice over a nice long period of time.

[GRIFFIN]

Or maybe a very static unknown share price with a nervous wait until the next sales report as thats the maker or breaker now.

[Whipmoney]

SP hasn't exactly smashed through 0.90 with support forming. May see it drift to 0.80 - .85 over the next week on no news. What do others reckon from a TA perspective?

It's always interesting to see people stressing/spending a lot of time trying to predict the short-term moves as odds are that you will generally get it wrong (at least most of the time). I find it much easier to take a longer-term view :)

[Cricketfan]

It's always interesting to see people stressing/spending a lot of time trying to predict the short-term moves as odds are that you will generally get it wrong (at least most of the time). I find it much easier to take a longer-term view :)

Having been on Sharetrader for nearly a year, I think I can confidently say the share price will possibly go up or down, but maybe stay the same. :)

[couta1]

It's always interesting to see people stressing/spending a lot of time trying to predict the short-term moves as odds are that you will generally get it wrong (at least most of the time). I find it much easier to take a longer-term view :)
Perfectly stated as the cycle goes up and down:cool:

[Bobcat.]

Looks like what was previously resistance at 90c has become a new support level. It held firm yesterday, and again today.

Bullish but for how long?

Next key resistance is 99/100.

[robbo24]

Very low volume. DMI suggests sellers still well in control and a bounce off the 50RSI is likely on the cards. MACD positive but likely a fake out. If volume doesnt show up soon it's unsustainable and will back below 90 next week.

Sellers certainly would be in control if they were willing to sell.

What's the lag on DMI before it starts to react?

[robbo24]

PS - the 10 day 15 minute chart actually looks pretty good!

Riding up the 10, 20 and 30 day SMA.

DMI up, RSI crossing over 50, MACD about to cross..

[robbo24]

Where's the volume to sustain it though? Bounce off the 30 day MA dead ahead.

Care to join in BC?

Dusc - not holding nor looking to, just offering my opinion. :)

Compared to seller behaviour over the last few months, I think it is telling that the SP is just ticking over.

SP movement requires willing buyer and seller.

TA reflects market behaviour, read between the lines Mooseo

[Bobcat.]

The volume's not there to sustain a climb beyond $1...yet.

Also, beware the double whammy at 99c/100 with the downward trend-line (160 - 113) due to hit around about the same price. I'm staying clear for now.

[Hoop]

Hi there Hoop.Today and the last time I tried to open your Photobucket reference my IPad seized up totally.Have you a clue why. It said Safari can't open but that's not unusual but on yours it just stops....

Me too - don't touch Hoops pictures now

I have opened Hoops picture on my i pad ,no problem, FYI. Interesting too, thanks

Hi Guys
Rather strange...works OK on my Samsung Tablet (Android)
I could be totally wrong but I'm assuming this could be a codec problem with your media display/player if it doesn't support that file extension. Try updating or download a better media program.

[winner69]

Hi Guys
Rather strange...works OK on my Samsung Tablet (Android)
I could be totally wrong but I'm assuming this could be a codec problem with your media display/player if it doesn't support that file extension. Try updating or download a better media program.

mine I put doen to not upgrading to the new version of IOS or whatever its called .... mates said it caused more problems than it solved if I did

[Hoop]

mine I put doen to not upgrading to the new version of IOS or whatever its called .... mates said it caused more problems than it solved if I did
I can TOTALLY!! relate to that Winner....My Computer "black screened" on restart ..thanks to Microsoft's updates installed this morning

[robbo24]

Is this a museum investment thread?

All I can see is dinosaurs...

[Goldstein]

Hi Guys
Rather strange...works OK on my Samsung Tablet (Android)
I could be totally wrong but I'm assuming this could be a codec problem with your media display/player if it doesn't support that file extension. Try updating or download a better media program.

Works great on my Linux (Centos) machine. But I suspect not many using that.

[Goldstein]

Where's the volume to sustain it though? Bounce off the 30 day MA dead ahead.


I think it already has Moosie - green line MA30

[winner69]

Works great on my Linux (Centos) machine. But I suspect not many using that.

Jeez mate, I feel so inadequate now

[Goldstein]

Jeez mate, I feel so inadequate now

Ha, don't be. I use it for my job as a scientific software developer. But anybody can try Linux. If you are using Windows you just need to shrink the WIndows partition on whatever device you are using (Windows itself has tools for this now) and then download a version of Linux (it's free) make an ISO image (on a disk, memory peg, etc) and install. You then get the option of whether to boot Windows or Linux every time you power the machine up.. Newbies might like to try Ubuntu Linux - which I have on my laptop. It boots very quickly.

Anyway, apologies for the aside.

[Goldstein]

It's always interesting to see people stressing/spending a lot of time trying to predict the short-term moves as odds are that you will generally get it wrong (at least most of the time). I find it much easier to take a longer-term view :)

Whipmoney, if people get it wrong most of the time, they just need to do the exact opposite of what they think and then they will be right most of the time.

[winner69]

Whipmoney, if people get it wrong most of the time, they just need to do the exact opposite of what they think and then they will be right most of the time.

There's an old saying

Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.

[Goldstein]

Who can forget:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUvKE3bQlY&feature=kp

[Tsuba]

this makes no sense.

Have you not heard of Mr Murphy NG ?

[dingoNZ]

this makes no sense.
5927

I'll be looking to get back in next significant decline I see, I liquidate at $1.29 but am pretty confident in their future. A bit of external downward pressure and FOMO folk exiting will be helpful :)

[robbo24]

moosie, I could have jumped back in and bought 20 shares at closing and there would have been no change for today. All is not as it appears. Sometimes.:)

Don't worry bedyet, you could take moosie in the boxing ring...

[Bobcat.]

And back down we go.

BC, where's your lower price target for a buy back in? This is assuming you are confident it won't plumb new lows!

Low 70s. Anything under 75 would get me interested.

[skid]

Ha, don't be. I use it for my job as a scientific software developer. But anybody can try Linux. If you are using Windows you just need to shrink the WIndows partition on whatever device you are using (Windows itself has tools for this now) and then download a version of Linux (it's free) make an ISO image (on a disk, memory peg, etc) and install. You then get the option of whether to boot Windows or Linux every time you power the machine up.. Newbies might like to try Ubuntu Linux - which I have on my laptop. It boots very quickly.

Anyway, apologies for the aside.

Didnt realize you could run both Op systems--I had a friend who was running Ubuntu and had a glitch(in Thailand)and had all sorts of problems finding someone who knew anything about it--Tizz fast though

[skid]

85/86 today............90+ by end of week ...........$1 by end of month

Winner,your posts have become positively schizophrenic over the past few weeks--It will be interesting to hear how they sound when you sell again:):) Thats OK--Its par for the course on this thread:)

[robbo24]

Winner,your posts have become positively schizophrenic over the past few weeks--It will be interesting to hear how they sound when you sell again:):) Thats OK--Its par for the course on this thread:)

The SP got to 93 after winner posted this.. The month isn't over yet...

[Hoop]

The chart below highlights volume, money flows and the sudden volatility surges of PEB....Chaiken MF indicator can be negatively affected by sudden price movements and therefore generally not used with the gaping behaviour of share price...however...In this case with PEB, it does show up a rare situation when the Official figures were clouded a large group of investors were accumulating in the downtrend with the belief that PEB's down trending share price was unwarranted.

The chart shows as the share price kept dropping there comes a point in human behaviour when belief is slowly eroded and replaced with doubt..there becomes a point (a catalyst event point) created amongst this group..The usual theoretical charted points are support lines but when the "edge of the cliff support" broke at 99c the unexpected happened, a new support grew out of no-where at 95..There was still enough fundamental belief in PEB and TA wiggly lines at the 99 support cliff edge was dismissed by the large group as nonsense...However the groups catalyst (cliff edge) event point turned out to be the 95c point not the charted 99c and the free fall commenced to the charted 70c support (intraday 68c)...Now could this be the bottom??? Well hmmm price bounced but it ran out of steam and reversed down again near that catalytic event point at 95c which also coincides with the top of the trend channel... Using TA that is not a good sign.. it is bearish signal. There are still believers out there but the TA Money flow indicators are showing increasing numbers are giving up and selling out as they cant stomach this continuous down trending price any longer

If the PEB believers (both "in" and "out") are correct about PEB fundamentals then the scene is slowly becoming set up for another group of investors ...the Contrarians....

TA charts are a visual display of group investor trading behaviour.... If or when the Contrarians arrive and removes doubt from belief, the charts will tell you when to re-enter..



Definition of 'Contrarian'


An investment style that goes against prevailing market trends by buying assets that are performing poorly and then selling when they perform well.





Investopedia explains 'Contrarian'


A contrarian investor believes that the people who say the market is going up do so only when they are fully invested and have no further purchasing power. At this point, the market is at a peak. On the other hand, when people predict a downturn, they have already sold out, at which point the market can only go up.


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB13062014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB13062014.png.html)



Disc:- Own no PEB shares

[chippy52]

Didnt realize you could run both Op systems--I had a friend who was running Ubuntu and had a glitch(in Thailand)and had all sorts of problems finding someone who knew anything about it--Tizz fast thoughYou sure can. Have been using Linux for the past 5 years without problems. Dual booting with windows is done by most users, as long as theres enough disk space. These days you can run a system from a CD or flash drive if you so wish.

[robbo24]

The chart below highlights volume, money flows and the sudden volatility surges of PEB....Chaiken MF indicator can be negatively affected by sudden price movements and therefore generally not used with the gaping behaviour of share price...

Hoop, I will pay you good money to invent a TA indicator called "The Moosie Index"

[Hoop]

Is this a museum investment thread?

All I can see is dinosaurs...


Hoop, I will pay you good money to invent a TA indicator called "The Moosie Index"

How about Moose/Dinosaur ratio :D

[robbo24]

How about Moose/Dinosaur ratio :D

Ok here's the calculation for the Moose Index:

(((((shareprice/SMA30)*RSI)/50)/365*X)

X = years the stock has been on the market

[robbo24]

PEB's Moose Index is currently at an interesting 0.000153

Could be time for a Moosish Reversal

[MAC]

Just add popcorn …………

One of the great pleasures in being an investor is that you get to sit back and watch as traders dance around the fire, play with their charts, roll the bones and psycho analyse each other, all whilst trying to conjure and decide what next week’s short term self-fulfilling prophecy ought to be.