PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[winner69]

Just add popcorn …………

One of the great pleasures in being an investor is that you get to sit back and watch as traders dance around the fire, play with their charts, roll the bones and psycho analyse each other, all whilst trying to conjure and decide what next week’s short term self-fulfilling prophecy ought to be.

Probably a fair enough assumption MAC ..... but I hazard a guess that you have noticed that you are a lot less wealthy than you were a few months ago - honestly now tell us you have suffered just a bit of anguish in that time .... but get over it by saying you are richer than a year or so ago

[MAC]

It's all really too early Winner to say how wealthy one may be with Pacific Edge, let's have that chat in 2016 or 2019. Although having said that, those who invested in 2008 or 2012 may be ready for one of those chat's already even at this early cusp.

[Tsuba]

Just add popcorn …………

One of the great pleasures in being an investor is that you get to sit back and watch as traders dance around the fire, play with their charts, roll the bones and psycho analyse each other, all whilst trying to conjure and decide what next week’s short term self-fulfilling prophecy ought to be.

I like the cut of your jib MAC. Very well worded. Ross

[skid]

It's all really too early Winner to say how wealthy one may be with Pacific Edge, let's have that chat in 2016 or 2019. Although having said that, those who invested in 2008 or 2012 may be ready for one of those chat's already even at this early cusp.

Guess its a matter of when those investors jump in ,if they,like you, believe in that eventual outcome.
Some who jumped in 6 months ago might be keen to have that chat with you now.

[dingoNZ]

I'm gonna pick up another 3.5k shares this week. I'll just forget about them and hold and check back in five years time and see how they're doing.

I really like their product and believe they have potential for significant growth for revenues once the get some exposure and marketability in foreign markets. Its a gamble but i'm happy to sit back and watch and wait.

[blackcap]

I'm gonna pick up another 3.5k shares this week. I'll just forget about them and hold and check back in five years time and see how they're doing.

I really like their product and believe they have potential for significant growth for revenues once the get some exposure and marketability in foreign markets. Its a gamble but i'm happy to sit back and watch and wait.

Why not put $3k on the AB's to win by 12.5 and over this weekend? That's a gamble too and you wont have to wait five years :)

[dingoNZ]

Why not put $3k on the AB's to win by 12.5 and over this weekend? That's a gamble too and you wont have to wait five years :)


Why not on the Warriors, same risk with the way the AB's have been playing, with twice the return.

Like the look of PEB so happy to sit tight :)

[blackcap]

Why not on the Warriors, same risk with the way the AB's have been playing, with twice the return.

Like the look of PEB so happy to sit tight :)

Good call, probably less risk with the Warriors.

[Minerbarejet]

Not much being said
on the PEB thread
things have gone into a hole
but having said that
I do smell a rat
I think we've been hit by a troll.

There's a word going round
That red cards abound
and everyone's worried and sick
But we must have no fear
For Hancocks is here
With the shareprice about to uptick

So have a nice day
Take care on the way
Watch out for the troll on the bridge
And if that should fail
Then go get an ale
I think you'll find some in the fridge

[skid]

Opinions will be accepted by some and ridiculed by others and that is because we all see things differently. We have different levels of research into an investment, different education and abilities, different personalities and risk profiles. We have different financial resources and responsibilities.

Some people will study the company and ignore the charts; others, will study the charts and ignore the company. And, of course some people just post to antagonise, because that is how they get their jollies.

I’m a very bullish PEB investor. There are those that post a researched contra opinion that I value and some of the smarter, learned chartists’ post some very nice information too.

Investing or trading is an individual and personal choice, and whether others approve of anyone’s portfolio or investing methodology; matters not one knob of goat $#!t in the scheme of things.

Some study the charts and study the company both--
Before ,it was only good news ,It was smooth sailing,waiting for the next lot of good news,-a bit like a prize fighter who was unbeatable.
But now the fighter has been hit and gone down.
He is still in the ring,the fights not over,but everyone has had a wake up call (with the sales) So now it could be good news,but it could also be bad news.
Its a different game now,thats just how it is.
The game has also become more complicated because we have gotten some mixed signals--before they played their cards very close to their chest,but then we started getting some PR(?) and what some interpreted as rhetoric.
Doesnt mean the glory days wont come back,but its not a given any more.
Its natural that there is going to be some frustration around--It will be hard to get a handle on the situation until we get more info so the AGM will be interesting--Lets hope there are some there to ask some of the hard questions.
Ill be overseas but will pick the brains of an inlaw who works for a large pharmaceutical co.(if thats any help)
---I personally (after taking a punt on the sales announcement and losing(and bailing) need a bit more than no news to jump back in---
Time will tell..

[Tsuba]

Not much being said
on the PEB thread
things have gone into a hole
but having said that
I do smell a rat
I think we've been hit by a troll.

There's a word going round
That red cards abound
and everyone's worried and sick
But we must have no fear
For Hancocks is here
With the shareprice about to uptick

So have a nice day
Take care on the way
Watch out for the troll on the bridge
And if that should fail
Then go get an ale
I think you'll find some in the fridge

I think the quiet share market and the silence here can be attributed to Snapiti being on holiday. The graph huggers may have to factor in Snapster when they do their next calculation.

[nextbigthing]

Hoping to get along to the talk by DD tonight if I can get this damned report finished. Will report back tomorrow if I make it along.

Details please?

[youngatheart]

Quoted from forest...
"http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon1.png For those who like to get info directly from the source.
Not to be missed meeting with David Darling.

I have met David before and I find him passionate about PEB
NZSA Auckland branch meeting as below. All welcome have your questions ready.



Branch Meetings - 2014
Wed, 18th June
Speakers :

John Hisco – CEO ANZ Bank
David Darling – Pacific Edge

(Tea, coffee and biscuits from 7.00pm – presentation commencing promptly at 7.30 pm; please note there will be the usual $5 cover charge )
Hobson Room, Level 4
Alexandra Park Functions Centre, Greenlane."

[barney]

haha, yes! Will definitely be adopting a nickname if I get a chance to meet him!

Why would you find the need to not use your real name ?

[Tsuba]

Because I got a little upset one day and sent him an email that I'm not particularly proud of! Was a real beauty, but also bordered on blackmail (without really thinking about it).

Anyhoo!

*whistles an innocent tune*


Best you suck up to him big time and hopefully get some hot gen off him.

[nextbigthing]

I will charm him, fear not. I'll just do it with a psuedonym. :-p

Just say you're Moosie :)

[Goldstein]

Thanks NewGuy. A valuable post.

[noodles]

I was also at the presentation. David darling is a funny guy. Asked when we will see a dividend. He replied, "what's a dividend"

[forest]

[QUOTE=NewGuy;487113]ok. got there just as this kicked off. Thought the bank CEO on first was really interesting BTW. But I digress.

Nothing much new to report about PEB except:

1. confirmation that partners in Oz and Spain are failing and PEB are so small that they can't command better performance from those partners, so "we'll just have to wait."
2. "the curve" will likely remain flat for quite a while, but "eventually" take off.
3. I'm not convinced they've got the pricing structure quite right in the states. There are a lot of variables at play - like DD mentioned. I wanted to ask more about it, but didnt get an opportunity.

Forest - sorry I didn't find you guys. Didn't arrive till 7:40, Cheers.[/QUOTE

Glad that you made the meeting.

Point 1, I remember that DD said the Partners in AUS and Spain are the right partners however the progress is slow as PEB is depended on partners time table.
Point 2, I think DD was talking about a straight line, which is (I think) likely to be partly up.

[see weed]

I got there early about 7pm. and had a cup of tea with DD. Very nice fella, but did not realize he was CEO. Thought he was part of the Share Holders Association. A very good presentation.

[psychic]

Thanks guys. No slip made on medicare coverage i suppose.

[forest]

Thanks guys. No slip made on medicare coverage i suppose.

Not a word.

[noodles]

really? Was that a public question or a conversation between you and David?
It was a public question. It was just a joke. He went on to say that the company would be very profitable.

He did go on about how the business was not like Mitre 10 and the sales cycle is very long.

Also, the lack of patents on key parts of their product was a concern to me.

He did say Japan was the next target country.

He told a great story about how teh patients can order their own tests.

Overall, it was a great presentation, but given they are not Mitre 10, shareholders will need to patient with regard to sales.

[psychic]

A little point here; it may be that entry into another country has strategic objectives first as well as commercial. Perhaps registration etc. are worth considering, they are not exclusive licenses. (From memory).

According to the website, the Oryzon deal in Spain is exclusive, the Healthscope Australia license is not.

[psychic]

The Oryzon deal is a puzzle. PEB sold the exclusive license for "an undisclosed upfront fee along with royalties and sales milestone payments" in May 2011. (there was income of $163000 for license fees in the year to 31/03/12)

http://business.scoop.co.nz/2011/05/24/pacific-edge-sells-cxbladder-license-for-spain-portugal/

Is Oryzon now just sitting on it? Does the uptake hinge on reimbursement by Insurers or the equiv of Medicare in Spain?

[Minerbarejet]

And:

5. PEB made several approaches to big players - particularly Roche - in the early days. However, they were knocked back several times and told to develop the product further. Looks like they gave that angle a good try and it just didn;t work. This came up in questioning, and DD was relatively elusive. He stated that PEB needed to "put more meat on the bone" so that he could command a deserving figure from big pharma for current shareholders...

Bed time. Might post more tomorrow if I can remember (and can be bothered).This is all part of the known development of cxbladder. The "meat on the bone " has already been added.

[Minerbarejet]

so if they were keen to be in a JV before and now you think the meat on the bone has already been added why has a deal not been done especially given the go it alone strategy is clearly failing.
Miner clearly 100k in sales in the US over a 6 month period is not the meat on the bone a partner is looking for.I think you will find that the early approaches being rebuffed were based on a not fully commercially available and clinically tested product. This product is now in use commercially after deciding to go alone.
Having gone through all this it is more likely that when sales take off and there is the inevitable takeover offer it will be PEB doing the rebuffing. I agree that the amount about to be restated all over again at the end of the month does not look like much but take that straight (flat line) growth out six months and it looks in the ball park as a rough guide.
IMHO:)

[see weed]

I was also at the presentation. David darling is a funny guy. Asked when we will see a dividend. He replied, "what's a dividend"

I got the feeling it would be a number of years before any dividend was announced.

[see weed]

A number of Cxbladder pack sales had gone to share holders at a slight discount in the past. If the sp goes back down 50c to 60c I might buy some and get a discount on a test pack.

[Xerof]

so true... I remember that clearly and how PEB management implied they did us share holders a favor by rebuffing it.... perhaps the offer came from the locail 4 square owner.....smoke in mirrors at it's best

Attendees at the AGM could raise this issue. Of course both events are possible, at different times in the past 12 years. I too clearly recall him talking of 'fending off' at takeover proposal

I think it needs to be remembered that this was not a shareholders meeting - there would have been more emphasis put on the product than the financials, of which he could not possibly elaborate on any more than he has told all of us in writing

Balance, did you attend?

[noodles]

Makes you wonder how truthful/meaningful that "take over" offer was that was hyped several times in interviews by DD prior to the SPP!

During the meeting last night he did talk about a takeover over just prior to the GFC. He described why the offer fell through. It was due to the bidder having to fund another takeover. He certainly did not come across as being anything but honest.

[forest]

During the meeting last night he did talk about a takeover over just prior to the GFC. He described why the offer fell through. It was due to the bidder having to fund another takeover. He certainly did not come across as being anything but honest.

I agree noodles, I think PEB is misunderstood by many on this forum.

[Meister]

I agree noodles, I think PEB is misunderstood by many on this forum.

NewGuy has clearly left that meeting feeling a little negative about the whole thing, are you of a differing opinion forest? Market seems to be reacting negatively to it as well

[Xerof]

Well, logic would suggest the sellers today are NG and Snap.....

[Dentie]

Market seems to be reacting negatively to it as well

Nope - just a ploy to shake the s##t out of the s/h register. Time we got back to the real "family" investors holding (like it used to be) and leave the opportunistic pretenders behind.

[noodles]

Well, logic would suggest the sellers today are NG and Snap.....

If the price drop was due to the presentation, it was probably around his comments about the "long sales cycle". He emphasized this point a couple of times.

[forest]

NewGuy has clearly left that meeting feeling a little negative about the whole thing, are you of a differing opinion forest? Market seems to be reacting negatively to it as well

I do feel positive about PEB. It is important to understand in the medical field things take time. The parts PEB have control over like building Labs etc get done very timely. The parts where they depend on others can take a bit of frustration time wise, but it still happens.
Share holders are disappointed because timeline expectations seem too high to me. Not helped by earlier reported comments of CS. DD and CS might at times stoke this expectation for share holders own good to prevent a takeover at an unrealistic low price.

Meister it can be hard having to be patient but in PEB's case could work out very profitable.

[Whipmoney]

But we now know that no reputable pharmaceutical company in the US agree's enough to get into a JV.

Snapiti - Whilst I respective your contrarian and generally objective postings I have to ask why exactly would or should a major/reputable pharmaceutical company want to enter into a JV with PEB or buy them outright?

The major pharmaceutical co's are primarily drugmakers and will invariably have little appettite for a cancer diagnostics company like PEB.

Whislt Roche (for example) has a molecular diagnostics it doesn't necessarily mean that they will have appetite for a company like PEB, even if they do have the best product in their field, great IP protection and a large addressable (and profitable) market.

All company's (including pharmco's) have a scarce amount of capital and they will invariably seek to enter agreements/ventures/and markets that are not only profitability but which are complementary to their existing business.

This was evidenced early this year (around April/May) when Merck and Bayer started trading specific assets/properties between themselves in order to align their product portfolio to their respective/complementary markets.

If anything the above (massive) transaction was evidence that Pharmco's are undergoing a process of rationalisation in order to gain both cost and market efficiencies and as such they are unlikely to go out and spend 10's or hundreds of millions on entering into an agreement/buying PEB just so they have to start from scratch in building market share in the extremely small nice that is the Bladder Cancer diagnostics market.

[nextbigthing]

I do feel positive about PEB. It is important to understand in the medical field things take time.

Time = money and that money is yours.

You may have a positive feeling but don't let an emotion cloud judgement.

Just saying :)

[goldfish]

I was talking to 2 doctors at a big mens health clinic and neither of them had heard of cxbladder yet they get lots of guys showing with blood in urine, only about 1% of those will go on to have any test for bladder cancer and they said its sent off to a lab and inspected under microscope, then maybe a camera is stuck in them but its very rare.
Take that what you will, it was just a friendly conversation and may mean nothing however i find it alarming that 2 doctors at a mens clinic havnt even heard of cxbladder, i know its more aimed at urologists so maybe im barking up the wrong tree.
Im just trying to understand why sales was pretty much non existant. Hard to sell something if the potential buyer hasnt even heard of it.

[skid]

This is a classic case of "the product's great, but we don;t have the right distribution channels to sell it." The sooner that PEB accept and/or fix this, the better.

I've actually been the MD of a company trying to introduce a new disruptive medical technology. I've seen how hard it is to sway the medical profession. PEB have a big fight ahead unless they can get access to an established distribution channel.

DD also mentioned that the test was VERY expensive in the states, but that their COGS were very low. He said that he couldn't mention exact numbers due to commercial sensitivity, but I understand that their GP% is about 80%. He also discussed the issues around co-pay, and how this was variable that each supplier could set. It was at this point that I realised they could be pricing this whole thing incorrectly. Pricing strategy will be absolutely critical, and is not usually the domain of geneticists.

Also, the list of DD's other commitments was pretty worrying. How they hell can he devote proper attention to PEB with so many other things to do. I was shocked.

And all this stuff--INCLUDING MARKETING is under their control--Good management is the key--They appear to be on the back foot in terms of the timeline ATM--Its a matter of if and how quickly they adapt,but no one can blame investors keeping this at arms length for the time being and maybe waiting to buy in when this all gets worked out--the SP could go down or sideways for some time.

[Whipmoney]

DD also mentioned that the test was VERY expensive in the states, but that their COGS were very low. He said that he couldn't mention exact numbers due to commercial sensitivity, but I understand that their GP% is about 80%. He also discussed the issues around co-pay, and how this was variable that each supplier could set. It was at this point that I realised they could be pricing this whole thing incorrectly. Pricing strategy will be absolutely critical, and is not usually the domain of geneticists.

Expensive compared to what? Their Cogs? Relative to their competitors tests? Relative other cancer diagnostic tests? Relative to their processing times?

I'm aware that there are similar tests in the US markets for other types of cancers which cost in excess of $2,500 and are CMS approved/funded.

[skid]

From the way I read NGs post (expensive)-thats what DD said,not New Guy

[skid]

Keep in mind ,all this is against the backdrop of record highs on the US stockmarket--If theres a correction you can draw your own conclusions.
Meanwhile ,IMO they should be looking for a nice big successful co. to team up, with that already has the exposer in the market place

[zigzag]

The science and discovery phase transitioned to commercialisation a year or so ago and I will be interested in the next market update.

The Share Holders Association meeting is not the appropriate venue for the CEO to advise the market of anything the shareholders are not aware of; and, he hasn’t as far as I can see – so nothing has changed except there have been posted a lot of personal opinions, judgements and interpretations of what David has said and done.

Essentially, for me, not a lot really came out of the meeting because as I have posted previously I’m more than comfortable with the CEO.

You're right Hancocks. Different posters have made their own individual judgements. My own impression was a lot more positive than some of the other attendees. Agree with Forest in that some people on this forum have unrealistic expectations. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme. The fuse is a lot longer than many seem to think, so possibly DD has reset their expectations.

[MAC]

When I last checked it was actually a five year plan, recently kindly affirmed by the Chairman, not a five month plan. Pacific Edge openly allowed a year or so to sign up the larger insurers, plenty of time to run there too, they advised profitability for this year and we should know about that at FY15 reporting early next year.

It’s very early in the scheme of things and will be so for a while, staff are being recruited and are in training, and there’s lots of work to do and is probably being done quite professionally by CEO Jackie Walker and her new and experienced team at PEDusa.

The four network providers signed up, have by my estimation, circa 4,000 insurers and corporate health plan providers associated with them. I’m sure Jackie and the team will get to them all in good time and they have a full five years to do so.

There are elements outside their control, but that's not new news, nor untrue of any startup company, obarmacare processing perhaps one of the biggest variables, and some things will happen a bit sooner or later because of that, that's why management set five year plans rather than two year plans.

I’m quite comfortable with Pacific Edge as a long term holder, comfortable with DD in his role and with CS and JW in there’s too.

[psychic]

Well, the math not to your usual standard NG but that aside, I am happy with the Ownership.
The large shareholders have not wavered (Masfens sell down over the last few years excepted) have they? It is the ill informed masses that send the SP all over the paddock with their expectations and demands.

[psychic]

Sure , if they are a collective....
The math was just a dig sorry. 5343 - 20 don't equal 5400

[psychic]

I guess I'm suggesting that push came to shove, I'd rather have the Company controlled by informed Investors at the top than by us lot

[psychic]

not just the posters on here making judgement on the company... just have a look at the share price performance in the last few months.......looks like the markets are speaking loud and clear too.

I dunno - , a year ago the price was 48 cents. Whats wrong with the SP performance?
You can't blame PEB for market greed.

[Dentie]

Nope - just a ploy to shake the s##t out of the s/h register. Time we got back to the real "family" investors holding (like it used to be) and leave the opportunistic pretenders behind.

As I mentioned earlier ....

[Xerof]

not just the posters on here making judgement on the company... just have a look at the share price performance in the last few months.......looks like the markets are speaking loud and clear too.

Someone just slipped a new top 100 PEB shareholder list under my doormat - must have the wrong address......

It seems from reading the changes to the top 100 over recent months, that it is indeed short term reef fish who have been selling out. Only ONE collective group (who recently went under 5%, I'll let you work that one out) has continued to sell, and the vast majority of these sells have gone into the #1 pot (so I can't tell who the buyer is but it is institutional). virtually all the top 50 holders are unchanged, with minor shifts up and down from a couple of dodgy broker custodians. Another 3 new individual entrants have come into the top 100 over the last few weeks, I guess at around current levels. encouraging.

My general conclusion is therefore that current levels are proving to be where 'the market' sees fair value, as the volumes are pretty abysmal and the price is relatively steady.

My guess is that if those who do DCF valuations have shifted the commencement of the curve out 12 months, then we are at fair value at 80c to $1. This is of course on the proviso that the company expectations going forward are achievable. Both the Chair and the CEO are on record as being unmoved to alter their projections in this regard. Take it or leave.

[Microsloth]

Very happy to no longer be a shareholder, The story was good last year , now it is uncertain and drifting with the failure to get traction in sales...

Roche are a amazing company to do business with, they obviously listened to the PEB opportunity, and decided to pass. I respect their professional / commercial judgement more than DD and PEB's.

Good luck to the PEB family of investors, I always thought It was a bad idea to do business with family.

I'm hopeful for PEB but not willing to risk capital nor do I see a company as a growth opportunity until steadily increasing sales justify share price / optimism.

[MAC]

Someone just slipped a new top 100 PEB shareholder list under my doormat - must have the wrong address......

It seems from reading the changes to the top 100 over recent months, that it is indeed short term reef fish who have been selling out. Only ONE collective group (who recently went under 5%, I'll let you work that one out) has continued to sell, and the vast majority of these sells have gone into the #1 pot (so I can't tell who the buyer is but it is institutional). virtually all the top 50 holders are unchanged, with minor shifts up and down from a couple of dodgy broker custodians. Another 3 new individual entrants have come into the top 100 over the last few weeks, I guess at around current levels. encouraging.

My general conclusion is therefore that current levels are proving to be where 'the market' sees fair value, as the volumes are pretty abysmal and the price is relatively steady.

My guess is that if those who do DCF valuations have shifted the commencement of the curve out 12 months, then we are at fair value at 80c to $1. This is of course on the proviso that the company expectations going forward are achievable. Both the Chair and the CEO are on record as being unmoved to alter their projections in this regard. Take it or leave.

I think that’s quite astute Xerof, although the five year goal remains as unclear as it did last year, many including myself, I suspect, will await the AGM and some clearer advice before next committing to updating DCF valuations.

What will be interesting between now and the AGM though will be Edison’s assessment and valuation release, if we indeed see one as rumoured, as this will likely be a valuation based on independent cancer diagnostic market research rather than based on company set goals.

[psychic]

This is a classic case of "the product's great, but we don;t have the right distribution channels to sell it." The sooner that PEB accept and/or fix this, the better.

I've actually been the MD of a company trying to introduce a new disruptive medical technology. I've seen how hard it is to sway the medical profession. PEB have a big fight ahead unless they can get access to an established distribution channel.

DD also mentioned that the test was VERY expensive in the states, but that their COGS were very low. He said that he couldn't mention exact numbers due to commercial sensitivity, but I understand that their GP% is about 80%. He also discussed the issues around co-pay, and how this was variable that each supplier could set. It was at this point that I realised they could be pricing this whole thing incorrectly. Pricing strategy will be absolutely critical, and is not usually the domain of geneticists.

Also, the list of DD's other commitments was pretty worrying. How they hell can he devote proper attention to PEB with so many other things to do. I was shocked.

It is my understanding that, once approved, the price will be set by Medicare. Don't think the price point is an issue in the grand scheme of acceptance.

[blobbles]

Just a quick question, is the SP being manipulated?

2 (or 3?) days in a row the SP has plummeted pretty low then late buying at the very end of the day sees the SP end where it started. Is this just me being paranoid? Or do big players play this game so to avoid the traders freaking out when MA lines cross and cause the SP to drop on the back of a huge sell off?

Am genuinely interested, aren't asking this to provoke arguments.

[Xerof]

Jeez, I would have thought the traders have long gone - if not, they aren't traders.....

My view, if you want it, is the institutions are happy buying, and will probably 'protect' their position at these levels. I think the updated register confirms that its retail selling to institutional (with one exception)

This morning was just sheeples bailing out on the negative commentary produced on this forum and/or from last nights meeting IMO - nothing against NG for reporting it as he saw it, but some people will act on what is written in internet forums

I don't think it's 'manipulation'

[psychic]

That's big vol at the end of the day if just to fiddle the books though right? (1/3rd of the days trade.) , and it's not like we have any common MA's left to drop through anyhow.... :(

[skid]

Just a quick question, is the SP being manipulated?

2 (or 3?) days in a row the SP has plummeted pretty low then late buying at the very end of the day sees the SP end where it started. Is this just me being paranoid? Or do big players play this game so to avoid the traders freaking out when MA lines cross and cause the SP to drop on the back of a huge sell off?

Am genuinely interested, aren't asking this to provoke arguments.

In a vacume of no real news(except DDs talk) -only the traders are left IMO you are not paranoid

I would personally keep an eye on outside markets just in case---What do you feel? do you feel its going to rocket, or does it feel like its just hanging in there,struggling to make it back to where it started.

[Whipmoney]

ha ha I will frame your post psychic........ major cracks appearing in the company rhectoric since the share price was $1.70. Confident we will test the recent low of 68 cps before(if ever) we retest the highs. Agree some of that $1.70 was greed but plenty of the retreat to these levels is company performance based.


I disagree... It was all greed. Investors got way too greedy and ramped the market cap up to $540m+ for a company with next to zero sales that was still sitting very very early in a long commercialisation process (5+ yrs).

You can blame the company all you want for the retracement, but if you were one of those unfortunate souls buying at $1.20+ then you deserved to loose your money. I just hope that you still had $35 left in your account to buy a copy of the intelligent investor on the way down.

Seriously, what were people expecting? 25k tests in the first six months? 50k? 100k? Actually not physically possible for the company to get around that many urologists/insuers in the US i'm afraid..

[Whipmoney]

Just a quick question, is the SP being manipulated?

2 (or 3?) days in a row the SP has plummeted pretty low then late buying at the very end of the day sees the SP end where it started. Is this just me being paranoid? Or do big players play this game so to avoid the traders freaking out when MA lines cross and cause the SP to drop on the back of a huge sell off?

Am genuinely interested, aren't asking this to provoke arguments.

I suspect that is the definition of "accumulation". Richard D. Wyckoff himself would be proud of that of that kind of carry on.

[psychic]

Like most of us here Moosie, and with all due respect, I think you see what you want to see...

[nextbigthing]

For those of us interested in the AGM...

21st August is the big day. Other details TBC.

http://pacificedge.co.nz/news-and-media/calendar-of-events/

[Balance]

I think its more likely that people attending decided to bail of their own volition. And please don't forget, I am WELL LONG on this stock, so have absolutely nothing to gain from knocking it. I have carved out a professional reputation for calilng things as I see them, and todays reporting of last night's event was just another example.

Thanks, NG - you are a champ.

I read the thread today and I read some posters letting the sp run their view of the stock.

Learnt the hard and valuable lesson a long time ago to let one's view determine the sp level to get in and get out.

One's view is determined by a fundamental assessment.

[Whipmoney]

I read the thread today and I read some posters letting the sp run their view of the stock.

Learnt the hard and valuable lesson a long time ago to let one's view determine the sp level to get in and get out.

One's view is determined by a fundamental assessment.

This makes no sense to me?

I too assess company's on a purely fundamental basis through which I determine an intrinsic (fundamental) value.

This value however is still relative to the current/recent share-price, I.e if my value per share exceeds the current price then the stock is trading at a discount and I should in theory buy more..

I can't see why you would disassociate the current price of the stock with your fundamental views of the company though as that would mean you could buy a good company at too high of a price for the return to effectively compensate you for the risk involved.

[Whipmoney]

Ps: I see examples of the above all the time.

People re-iterating that PEB for example will (could) be a $3-$4 stock in 2,3,x years time.

So what? That doesn't necessarily mean you should pay $2, $1.50 or even a $1 now.

It may well be $4 in the future and your expected return could range from 100% to 300+% however there will be a ****load of volatility in your range of returns and there could be say a 30%-50% chance that it will end up at a price lower than you paid for it.

When it comes to investing risk and reward go hand in hand and what many seem to forget is that all things being equal: Stocks get LESS risky when they go down in price as there is more upside per unit of risk.

NB: I say 'all things being equal' simply because a stock price heading to zero (e.g pike river) is often a sign that the business or credit risk has deteriorated completely.

[Whipmoney]

So following my example above, despite what the technicians say this stock is now LESS risky than what it was at $1.70.

[psychic]

The guys with real skin in the game here don't remain invested in the hope that the PEB story may come through Snapiti.

They know it will come through, and they know that this will take time.

There will be no meaningful sales is the US until they get CMS and Vet coverage. Insurers will follow CMS mostly.

Bluecross is a significant voice and its next review is Nov - it's Corp Policy already mentions cxbladder I think in anticipation of CMS approval.

CMS and Veterans will want the recommendation of Urologists, and PEB are talking to the Urologists and gaining that support.

I think there is still considerable misunderstanding here around the four Payor announcements. These are not Insurers, they only facilitate payments once the Insurers have approved. Necessary in long run, but really only administrative ticks for now.

Either you believe in the Science or you don't.

[Balance]

Correct. The lower the SP, the less risky a stock (all other things being equal). Come on guys, this is pretty simple stuff!

Operative sentence - all other things being equal.

What we are seeing here (and this has been stated before by other posters) is a realignment of expectations.

So those getting out (because their expectations have not been met) are selling their shares to those who believe the sp now will provide them excellent returns relative to their expectations.

Bit like those who sold PEB at 42 cents and at $1.55 - one was right and the other was wrong.

[Schrodinger]

The guys with real skin in the game here don't remain invested in the hope that the PEB story may come through Snapiti.

They know it will come through, and they know that this will take time.

There will be no meaningful sales is the US until they get CMS and Vet coverage. Insurers will follow CMS mostly.

Bluecross is a significant voice and its next review is Nov - it's Corp Policy already mentions cxbladder I think in anticipation of CMS approval.

CMS and Veterans will want the recommendation of Urologists, and PEB are talking to the Urologists and gaining that support.

I think there is still considerable misunderstanding here around the four Payor announcements. These are not Insurers, they only facilitate payments once the Insurers have approved. Necessary in long run, but really only administrative ticks for now.

Either you believe in the Science or you don't.

No such thing as a sure thing. Any tips on how they are going to get to $100M in sales in the next 4.5 years (200K 2014> 99.8M 2019)?

[psychic]

And, unfortunately, CMS won't be until 2015 or even longer based on DD's comments the other night.

Did he actually say that??

[MAC]

When you have a superior product, disruptive technology, a first mover advantage, a product that offers a one third reduction in work up costs for insurers over cytology, and an experienced team on the ground in the US gearing up to go, all one needs to add is time, patience and a five year plan.

Yawn, stretch, wake me when their done, …….., see you all at $5.

5948

[nextbigthing]

Part of the five year plan was CMS coverage in early 2014. That's now apparently 2015. Maybe its not a five year plan anymore.

How many more hurdles are going to take a year longer than planned?

[Balance]

exactly NBT, and how much capital will they need to keep raising until they capitulate and adopt a more realistic plan for penetrating the US?

Kind of talk which is playing right into the hands of one of the big pharma - they will pick up PEB cheap relative to its*real potential.

[Casino]

he sure did

This is news to me. Do you have link?

[Balance]

Yes, but that's the thing. Only big pharma is likely to have the ability to realise the potential of this company, so they have significant bargaining power. No one else seems to want to buy it.

Comes down to the big shareholders in there, NG.

They were prepared to front up and fund PEB 2 years ago in preference to PEB being swallowed by a Roche or J&J - because they saw the potential.

If they think that PEB cannot make it alone, watch the investment bankers move in - that's how these things work.

[Casino]

No, he said it at the talk the other night. Others were there. Hopefully they can confirm, although nobody has commented on the two times that I've mentioned it!

Thanks for making a point! It is very disheartening to read it here and not in a market update.

[psychic]

Not a word.

See post 10008

One of you is wrong..

[psychic]

But you didn't address it then?

[psychic]

Ok thanks.
TBH , the delay aside, confirmation that CMS approval is coming is good enough for me.
The whole health system over there is a bog

[psychic]

Why should I? I know what I heard.

This response is beneath you mate.

[forest]

No, he said it at the talk the other night. Others were there. Hopefully they can confirm, although nobody has commented on the two times that I've mentioned it!

And the reason is? (Unless I missed it).

PEB is not an investment like most other companies on the NZX, and the risk / profit profile not suitable for many investors.

However many investors who spend a considered amount of time following PEB are comfortable with progress. I would expect if there was a need for an additional raising of capital that the support is there. The last capital raising showed that.

[Xerof]

This from a presentation on 13 June 2013




• Pacific Edge anticipates commencing negotiations in earnest with Medicare and Medicaid in July 2013, with this continuing until August 2014. Pacific Edge has already conducted preliminary discussions.

A matter of months later, the company is on record as saying due to issues with the implementation of Obamacare, this target date would be further delayed.

Why is this suddenly an issue?

[Xerof]

I haven't found it yet, hence I couldn't link it, but take my word for it in the interim.

edit: can't find any link so will just leave you with what they had published - late 2014, now maybe into 2015, does it really make much difference in the big picture of a 15 year build?

[Hoop]

So following my example above, despite what the technicians say this stock is now LESS risky than what it was at $1.70.

Whipmoney...Technicians did not say what you inferred.....I'm a Technician and you were not listening.....I will summarise so you will be corrected.

Orginally PEB sudden rise up from 50c to 70c caught many people by surprise There were FA out there saying that even TA could not foresee the jump up....to correct these people TA signaled buys 3 days before the second steep rise from 70c to 170c and I bought in at 71c on those signals (see the IN on my 23rd April chart) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology/page481) At 1.70 there was blow out risk and the fall back during NOVember and December was considered as low risk breathers with no major TA sell signals ...the risk grew when the price fell back below 160c major support in February when the TA ducks started to lined up and signaled the PEB party was over...I reluctantly obeyed my TA discipline and dismissed my instinct and all the positive postings from investors to stay in and sadly sold out and left the party late February at 156 (see the OUT on my 23rd April Chart) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology/page481) realising over 100% profit)....

SINCE THEN

11th April 2014 Post #7201 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology/page481)PEB price free fall day to 110c Technically.. the most scariest stock on the NZ Stock Exchange

Hi Meister.
Unfortunately my reply will not come across as fine and dandy...It will upset many...

.....This has to be the most scariest chart I have ever seen.....The price is all over the place...and at the moment it is teetering a cliff edge with no more supports until 70c.......

....All I can say is PEB narrowly dodged a bullet today...bottoming out at 1.04 on the weakest and last minor support....... geez...I had visions today of seeing it gap down to 70c

......
Fundamental excuses that this stock is "cheap" at 110..if thats true why is PEB looking like it should be in a mental institution...At this moment in time I would have to be insane to join in...eh....

23rd April 2014 Post #7801 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology/page521) PEB coming "off" a small rally back to 112c Still technically scary

Its been 12 days and 600 posts since my last scary chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology/page481)

Luckily PEB managed to manufacture a support at the psychological $1 point (99c) to stop the freefall.....
There has been some sort of relief rally to 120 but failed at that resistance point when buyer numbers dwindled...This is disturbing as failure to rally past a significant resistance level are the signatures of bear market corrections (sucker rally..dead cat bounces, etc)...
....If we rely on hope... then the untested $1 (99c) support has to be strong enough to resist this suspected continuation pattern...it is looking more likely than not that the $1 support is going to be tested....There is still a vacuum below $1 down to 70c so the $1 support is the technical cliff edge....scary...

On trying to look on the positive side....... There's a smidgen of a hint of support at 110c,If buyers come back, e.g buoyed on by an increasing Nasdq, then the 120c resistance becomes a focal point and that ultra weak 110 support becomes slightly stronger...If the price goes above this point then I suspect medium term buy signals will trigger and the huge technical risk will dissipate somewhat...This reduction of the risk premium will adjust the price upwards.....

Post # 8449 18 May 2014 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology/page564) PEB at 111c on Friday 17th

Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze up again...When this happens it suggests either a trend change or change of tempo of the existing trend. As PEB is trendless atm ....the Bollinger Bands are suggesting then will be a trend forming..
...Will the future trend be up or down...We don't know for sure......


Luckly the fall got arrested at 95c was this a miraclous new support forming within this Technical 70c to 1.00c vacuum??..sadly it wasn't and it freefalled to 70c (68)... 70c Primary support level occurred (bottomed intraday at 68c)..It rallied off the primary support to 93c.. Then on the 9th June short term BB squeezed again at 85c resistance area but this time PEB broke though reducing the risk by turning an 85c resistance level into an 85c support level.

I thought this is interesting enough to share....Responding to a PM last night...I mentioned the squeezed BB on the short term chart (Note:..BB's very wide on the medium term chart)

Quote;;;
......the bollinger bands are squeezed up again suggesting more short term action this week....As it is in a long term downtrend the trend investor assumption is it will go down again...However a surge upwards past 105c would make the intraday 68c low be perceived by investors as a bottom and a cyclic reversal point and they would start buying (hence the buy signal being triggered)...

So...lets see which way the price will go with the short term Bollinger band squeeze...we won't have to wait long..

We didn't have to wait long...less than 12hrs from writing
As PEB showed slight weakness near the close yesterday I personally assumed PEB price would more likely go with the long term trend, downwards rather than upwards...Wrong!!

The short term chart showing the first hour of trading this morning
Bobcats 90/91c as well as 85c resistance levels is evident here on the chart..It is now PEB's next hurdle to contend with..

14th June post#9963 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology/page665) PEB price at Friday 13th at 85c falling back from the 93 c rally


.....The usual theoretical charted points are support lines but when the "edge of the cliff support" broke at 99c the unexpected happened, a new support grew out of no-where at 95..There was still enough fundamental belief in PEB and TA wiggly lines at the 99 support cliff edge was dismissed by the large group as nonsense...However the groups catalyst (cliff edge) event point turned out to be the 95c point not the charted 99c and the free fall commenced to the charted 70c support (intraday 68c)...Now could this be the bottom??? Well hmmm price bounced but it ran out of steam and reversed down again near that catalytic event point at 95c which also coincides with the top of the trend channel... Using TA that is not a good sign.. it is bearish signal. There are still believers out there but the TA Money flow indicators are showing increasing numbers are giving up and selling out as they cant stomach this continuous down trending price any longer

If the PEB believers (both "in" and "out") are correct about PEB fundamentals then the scene is slowly becoming set up for another group of investors ...the Contrarians....

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..........

As you can see Whipmoney the scariest time (highest risk) was 6 weeks after the 170c high ..The highest risk occurred when in mid April when PEB broke 120c support..the risk of a further -43% drop to 70c became technically very real...On the 13th April was a technical no brainer GET OUT!!!!!!warning.....
As so often the way it may not happen suddenly creating investor doubts that it is all bullsh!t, smoke and dust and FA investors dismissing this overall Group trading behavioural attitudes towards PEB (TA) as the self fulfilling prophesy enemy...

What happened was expected but it took a little longer...It turned out to be a slow moving train wreck.

After the carnage from the wreck... that Technical risk of that 1.20 to 70c probable wreck has expired....

There are new risks developing, but that big melt down risk that Whipmoney reckons us "Technicians" are on about is a goneburger

[Goldstein]

oh god, its "that" article again.

Ha.yes - I can imagine some on this forum attending an AGM in 4 years' time and waving a copy of the ODT in front of the board.

[Xerof]

oh god, its "that" article again.

LMAO, new guy, yes, that didn't assist my case about 'nothing new here'. I knew it had been last forecast to have been August 2014, and I must have rose-tintedly read the last part of that comment as 2015.

The Chair and the CEO do need to cross check their facts before committing matters to print

[forest]

Just to refresh the memory of those there: he put up a 1000-word slide talking about the commercial pathway in the states then started to ramble about how things had been slow. he then went on to explain the importance of insurance accreditation before eventually mentioning that CMS/medicare would be delayed to the end of the year, but probably early next year.

This was also the same slide where he mentioned the VA, and how it covered 20 million vets and their families.

I remember this clearly, so hopefully others were listening too.

Yes, Newguy fair recall,
I guess, in the end it depends on ones expectation.
Some of us see PEB as a very long term investment (which might be taken over well before it matures or go under if things don't work out, but we accept the risk and see the potential).
We realise progress is measured in many years.
DD or others might call this slow progress but it could be fast under the circumstances of the process required.

[see weed]

Just about to buy some PEB, but pushed the wrong buttons and bought some PGW by mistake. No worries, might get a div. one day.

[youngatheart]

See Weed was at the meeting too. Said he was chatting with a man while having a cup of tea and didnt realise it was DD till the meeting began. Can picture See Weed as one of those with a silly grin holding a sausage roll. Lol! Too funny.

[Remote]

Incorrect Hancocks. DD clearly said that they approached several times during the product development phase, not just once. Please get your facts straight.

I was at the meeting and from what I heard Hancocks is correct.

[Remote]

Sorry, but you are wrong. DD had a stepped diagram on the board, and clearly stated that they had approached Roche several times, each of which they were told to develop the product further. DD depicted this by showing how they had stepped up the value chain/product development curve.

Am I the only one with a decent memory here?? :cool:

well I was at the back and couldn't see the detail on the slide as it was far too small (and my eyes are good) but I don't recall him saying it. don't know that the 60+ crowd saw much on his slides at all :confused:

[Tsuba]

Man it is going to be interesting on here the day after the AGM if this is anything to go by.

[Remote]

He has said on more than one occasion in the past that once Roche had told them they needed to go away and develop it further they decided that, having then done that, that they could commercialise it themselves - obviously that is going slightly slower than expected but as we all know it is early days. BTW I was the one who asked him were Roche and others still sniffing around - to which he said not today. He did mention that another company a few years ago who were in take-over mode and had drawn up a list of 300 potential targets in the Bio-tech space. PEB was one of these. They then culled that list down 2 or 3 times until they were left with only the one that they wanted ... and that was PEB. That was never taken any further however because the GFC intervened and the company who wanted to buy PEB had to settle on another deal they were already committed to and couldn't come up with extra funding to pursue the PEB deal.

[Remote]

maybe my eyes aren't that good after all

[Remote]

you may be right Snap... I don't take anything as gospel merely mentioning what was said

[Dentie]

Jesus Snapiti & New Guy - do you do anything else but bellyache? Instead of sitting here bagging the company that you're a supposed shareholder of - why not biff your shares back to the market and put them into a big strong company instead ... I hear there are some cheap XRO shares going ... ohhh nooooooo...falling knives there too!!!!

Haven't you noticed most of the main investors on here have stopped contributing .... wonder why??

[psychic]

I was not there, but my understanding is completely the opposite. Yes they had talks to Roche, but once PEB put everything together and decided to go it alone, they have simply not been looking for offers. I recollect DD saying in an interview somewhere that they had batted a few approaches away??
I'd be gutted if they sold now.

[winner69]

Newguy - I have found your posts last night and today very informative and full of insights.

Pity you have had counter the many challenges to what you heard. Maybe it is case where some only hear what they want to hear and the rest must be untrue.

[barney]

Jesus Snapiti & New Guy - do you do anything else but bellyache? Instead of sitting here bagging the company that you're a supposed shareholder of - why not biff your shares back to the market and put them into a big strong company instead ... I hear there are some cheap XRO shares going ... ohhh nooooooo...falling knives there too!!!!

Haven't you noticed most of the main investors on here have stopped contributing .... wonder why??

It's certainly a reason why I don't post a lot any more.

I would have thougt that one of the main considerations when investing in a company would be the calibre of the CEO. Why you would go ahead and buy shares if you thought the CEO was not up to it is beyond me. Even if that CEO has taken the company from basically zero value to over $270m in value.

[Dentie]

Newguy - I have found your posts last night and today very informative and full of insights.

Pity you have had counter the many challenges to what you heard. Maybe it is case where some only hear what they want to hear and the rest must be untrue.

Yeah - pity no one else seemed to hear what NG heard (or thought he heard).

[Dentie]

Actually forest admitted that I was correct in the end. Shame dentie.

Probably agreed ... just to get some peace.

Anyway, I've said my bit on this. I acknowledge everyone is entitled to their opinion, but the monotony of negativity against PEB, the CEO, the Chairman et al...gets all too much after a while. Correct me if I'm wrong, but being an ex MD of a firm (or something similar), perhaps you can put your credentials forward at the AGM and you never know, you could become an elected officer of PEB. Then we'll start to fly.

Look, IMVVVVHO, PEB was never a stock for traders to get loose on - not at the stage they were at anyway. I know traders will vilify me on that - but it was the piling in of the traders that pushed the SP to $1.70 and beyond way before it was ready. That pushed it onto the big boys league on the NZX and it is the sanity of others that have pushed it back to where it should be. When they didn't get the sales they were hoping for - the traders ran for the hills. As Xerof has mentioned - the main investors (the top 100) are all basically all there - so the explosion of the Share register is down to the above. Live by the sword - die by the sword I'm afraid.

[psychic]

great advice dentie but too late as I sold my shares I recently bought @fair value(70cps) for 87cps 2 days ago as I am really confident I will be able to purchase PEB much lower than 87 in the coming months.

Oh, sweet Jesus, he's gping to be even more negative now..
So u think it's all smoke and mirrors yet somehow reconcile that peb is ok at. 70??? Can't see the logic

[Dentie]

Was wondering how long it would take.....a red card my way now. hahahaha ....reminds me from my school boy days, but back then I used to get the strap for speaking my mind!!

hahahahaha....what a joke - it's wasted on me whoever you are - couldn't care less my friend!

You are right - "the share price does speak volumes" - but it is the behaviour of those who move the share price that is the real telling factor.

have a good weekend all!!

[Carpenterjoe]

yep and the smart money all sold when multiple insiders sold with in days of each other.
Now that behavior spoke volumes but those emotionally attach to the stock would not have been able to compute what was being said.

Sorry Snapiti, I am "Emotionally Attached" to this stock,

I can "COMPUTE"

People with cancer need this type of Research.
People with cancer need companies like pacific edge to survive.
People with cancer cant afford for pacific edge to get taken over, and the innovation of their research lost.
I don't care that my paper profits have been reduced, if this company can help at least one person, let alone 170, I'm content.

Well done for making some money! We get the point!

Would you mind ceasing your self indulgence and open your eyes to the bigger picture on the fight against cancer.

I do appreciate your investment Knowledge, but you have a lot to learn in life!

[Dentie]

yep and the smart money all sold when multiple insiders sold with in days of each other.
Now that behavior spoke volumes but those emotionally attach to the stock would not have been able to compute what was being said.

...hence why the falling knives syndrome begins...because the so-called "smart money" simply follows what the insiders do. To make "real money" however - one has to have the courage to walk against the sheep & lemming type personalities.

Just remember the share market gives out no accolades, it takes no prisoners and it doesn't hear the sage advice from those who are looking back over their shoulder either...it simply does what it does....day in and day out.

Snapiti - I have been emotionally involved in what this company is trying to achieve for those poor buggers with cancer for many years now - the SP at the time happened to be about 20c I think. I am still emotionally involved in what this company is trying to achieve for those poor buggers with cancer - and I don't care what the SP is at the moment to be honest. For me, I am just happy to see my investment as a donation towards a company who is trying to help humanity. Some choose to invest in Lotto each week and others choose to invest in Kiwisaver and others choose to invest in RYM. If at the end of all this I have made a profit - then that's a bonus.

Instead of trying to be an historic looking prophetic sage (after you have sold your holding) - whipping those unlucky punters sitting on losses with "I told you so" type comments... try and understand the fact that not everybody is in the share market with a myopic "profit at all cost" attitude.

Oh, by the way, thanks for having the courage to identify yourself when you handed out the red reputation comment. I respect you for that at least.

[blackcap]

There is a bit more than meets the eye though Dentie. And good on you for supporting a worthwhile cause. But reading through this thread it would seem some of the comments from PEB and the timing of those comments and the actions of share sales by insiders are rather duplicitous and that is what some of the posters are trying to point out. Or the alternative is that sharetraders are rather foolish for pushing the share price to $1.70 and had interpreted the announcements by the company incorrectly and management used this opportunity to sell their shares. But his is a sharetraders site as well as an investors site and if you are an investor you should not really worry about negative comments on PEB because what happens at shareholder level has no bearing on what PEB is actually doing operationally. IF PEB really do well you will be vindicated one day (or maybe not if it takes a long time). But for someone who is looking at this as an investment and looks purely at the numbers, a delay of "a year" or sales targets not being met make a huge difference in the price they are willing to pay for a share as this changes the NPV of the investment and that is what seems to be driving the share price down.

[Beagle]

Good post Blackcap. I also suspect tech fatigue is hitting this stock as well. With so many new tech listings coming to the market the supply demand imbalance has never been so acute, (the exact opposite of the Auckland housing market).
Given the apparent delay in getting sales traction its going to be very hard for the SP to make any headway against the tidal wave of new tech stock supply coming to the market.

[blackcap]

Its probably also fair to say that I'm shocked that others didn't pick up on some of the more critical pieces of information that were relayed on the night.


NG aka B&E

Psychology 101 New Guy. Not wanting to hear what you do not want to hear. I think the laymans term is denial.

p.s please do keep posting because you provide some balance and some sharp analysis and all views both affirmative and vice versa are welcome.

[Dentie]

Miner .... clear your PM box please

[Minerbarejet]

Miner .... clear your PM box pleasesorry, will do
All done - too much sent mail.:)

[Dentie]

Perhaps a phone call to Mr Zuckerberg to see how he got facebook out to the world might help? He was just out of nappies at the time he made that - so doubt he had the billions to pay for the marketing...

[MAC]

*starts wondering who the JV partner will be when traction doesn't materialise*

It’s a relatively small club Moosie, happens every day, could happen anytime.

I applaud Pacific Edge though in expanding their horizons beyond remaining just a lab bound development company and in seeking perhaps, in the long run, to potentially be another Roche someday.

Development plus commercialisation, both together may very well be worth more than either or.

Roche began in 1896, traction will come for Pacific Edge too, and in just five short years we may just start to be able to assess how it’s going for them also.

http://www.evaluategroup.com/Universal/View.aspx?type=Entity&entityType=Company&id=5761&lType=coInfo&componentID=co#&&_ViewArgs=%7b%22_EntityType%22%3a0%2c%22_Parameter s%22%3a%7b%22_ContextData%22%3a%22%7b%5c%22isEPVan tage%5c%22%3afalse%2c%5c%22percentage%5c%22%3a-1%2c%5c%22searchWords%5c%22%3a%5c%22%5c%22%2c%5c%2 2sectionID%5c%22%3a%5c%22%5c%22%2c%5c%22storyID%5c %22%3a%5c%22499358%5c%22%2c%5c%22notSub%5c%22%3afa lse%7d%22%7d%2c%22_Type%22%3a1%7d

[blackcap]

no more distorted than some of your bullish views hancocks

Great post snapiti. Not having a go at hancocks or anyone in particular here. But if this forum is "fair" then for every bullish post you should also have a bearish post. There are always 50% disparaging views from the median view be they bullish or bearish. For someone to label someone that is negative on a stock as a "hater" or other such term then the same should be applied to someone who is always positive on a stock to maybe be labelled a "ramper". What I mean to say is that we should respect each others opinions even if they fly in the face of our own. I guess the term "distorted opinion" by definition is an oxymoron?

[blackcap]

So someone (unnamed thus a coward) gives me a red card for the above post?

[Dentie]

So someone (unnamed thus a coward) gives me a red card for the above post?

Well, in defence of Snapiti - it won't be him (her?) ...because he does identify himself when dishing out red cards..

[forest]

Daniell says this is only the start of the millions of procedures he hopes will eventually use the (F&P) company's technology.

"We've been doing this for a few years now but it's still quite early days in terms of the clinical adoption," he says. "Our experience, and the experience of many others, is that changing clinical practice, you need to be thinking in 10, 20-year time frames. But we see huge opportunities in this area." Quote Michael Daniell

I am posting this to illustrate the thinking, by an successful CEO, in the business of changing clinical practices.

In PEB's case progress is possibly reasonable fast for what they aiming to achieve if you look at the 10 to 20 year time frame MD is talking about. But DD and CS more then likely increased share holders expectations unrealistically in the past. And that leads to disappointments to share holders not realising the speed or lack of speed to be expected in sales.

[blackcap]

How bout those All Blacks though?? One of the best halves of rugby (the first half obviously), that I have seen for a while!

Yeah that first half was simply sublime considering the conditions as well. Second half unfortunately a bit of a let down. But still pleased to see where we are at.

[Remote]

NG. As far as I can remember,DD did say they approached Roche 2 or 3 times. They ended up on a short list of one, but the GFC came along and Roche had to pull their head in. I believe that you are reporting the facts correctly, but the difference is in the interpretation. We will all prosper or falter by our own judgements.

If you are talking about when it was mentioned at the SA meeting by DD that a company had identified 300 prospective takeover targets in the Bio-tech space and had whittled it down to PEB only then I can assure you David didn't say which company it was at that meeting

[MAC]

I’ve received a number of red cards for what I thought were just informative sharing but clearly they must have not suited the direction some short termers would like the share price to go. I provide positive reputation comments a lot and the occasional negative one too when I think it is justified, but always with respect and never with offensive language.

It seems a shame to me that a very noisy prolific minority of posters with ego’s large enough to think they can actually influence the short term share price, should drive away so many members who just want to share and compare information, analysis, and the facts and figures that they find from the hours of effort they make in research.

In the last month three long term senior members including another just today have told me that they will no longer participate.

Everybody loses when people go as they take a lot of experience and research with them, and increasingly, I’m finding that I’m receiving more information now by PM only, probably as many feel the forum is now too cluttered with facebook type posts and purposefully negative manipulation.

What’s left is what’s left.

I wish you all well, Mac

[blackcap]

I’ve received a number of red cards for what I thought were just informative sharing but clearly they must have not suited the direction some short termers would like the share price to go. I provide positive reputation comments a lot and the occasional negative one too when I think it is justified, but always with respect and never with offensive language.

It seems a shame to me that a very noisy prolific minority of posters with ego’s large enough to think they can actually influence the short term share price, should drive away so many members who just want to share and compare information, analysis, and the facts and figures that they find from the hours of effort they make in research.

In the last month three long term senior members including another just today have told me that they will no longer participate.

Everybody loses when people go as they take a lot of experience and research with them, and increasingly, I’m finding that I’m receiving more information now by PM only, probably as many feel the forum is now too cluttered with facebook type posts and purposefully negative manipulation.

What’s left is what’s left.

I wish you all well, Mac

Hi Mac, agree wholeheartedly with your post but the word "negative" is redundant, or could just as easily be replaced by positive. Manipulation goes both ways.

[MAC]

It’s not a matter of being bullish or bearish blackcap, it’s a matter of the quality of the debate. We are all bullish, or neutral, or bearish on different stocks, that’s what makes a market, and that point is fine.

However, when we see respected members driven away, not because they don’t respect a bearish view, but because the volume of negative opinion without substantive supporting information, research, links or data just makes participating unrewarding.

It’s very easy and lazy in life to be cynical, negative and to make cheap quick opinionated comments, it takes a lot of effort and time to be balanced and to provide a researched position for debate.

If you have spent a decade researching a stock why would you hang about when a small but prolific minority of very opinionated knockers habitually slander a company and its management without any debateable proof, evidence, links, or data in support.

They are not being bearish, its negativity provided by a small rather vein minority with an unrealistic expectation that they may scare enough newbies and retail investors into selling to creating a short term dip.

Personally, I think it’s a loss that people are leaving, especially someone like Hancock’s who willingly and openly provided so much quality information for all that time, often valuable information from behind the scenes too.

Frankly, right now, I don’t blame him for going.

[Dentie]

It’s not a matter of being bullish or bearish blackcap, it’s a matter of the quality of the debate. We are all bullish, or neutral, or bearish on different stocks, that’s what makes a market, and that point is fine.

However, when we see respected members driven away, not because they don’t respect a bearish view, but because the volume of negative opinion without substantive supporting information, research, links or data just makes participating unrewarding.

It’s very easy and lazy in life to be cynical, negative and to make cheap quick opinionated comments, it takes a lot of effort and time to be balanced and to provide a researched position for debate.

If you have spent a decade researching a stock why would you hang about when a small but prolific minority of very opinionated knockers habitually slander a company and its management without any debateable proof, evidence, links, or data in support.

They are not being bearish, its negativity provided by a small rather vein minority with an unrealistic expectation that they may scare enough newbies and retail investors into selling to creating a short term dip.

Personally, I think it’s a loss that people are leaving, especially someone like Hancock’s who willingly and openly provided so much quality information for all that time, often valuable information from behind the scenes too.

Frankly, right now, I don’t blame him for going.

Couldn't have said that any better!!!

[blackcap]

However, when we see respected members driven away, not because they don’t respect a bearish view, but because the volume of negative opinion without substantive supporting information, research, links or data just makes participating unrewarding.

.

Hi Mac, I respect your post and what you say and agree a lot of the posts are inconsequential. We just need to sift out what we do need and what we do not need. That is the nature of an open forum. However I have been participating on this forum almost from day 1 and from what I can gather the quality of posts has not really deteriorated at all. But back to what I was trying to infer.... your comment above is correct. But that above post is also valid if it reads "However, when we see respected members driven away, not because they don’t respect a bullish view, but because the volume of positive opinion without substantive supporting information, research, links or data just makes participating unrewarding."
Or do you disagree? I was just trying to say that manipulation of a stock (which under current law is still illegal I thought) goes both down and up.

[winner69]

I see that this PEB thread has moved ahead of Pike River in the number of posts and views

Still a little way to go to head off NOG and become the most discussed thread

[psychic]

Had a bit of a dig looking for hints as to why Oryzon has not got cracking with Cxbladder in Spain.

No answers found, but according to the website of EuropaBio, the Spanish Association of Biotechnology, Cxbladder is, at least, seemingly all good to go in Spain and Portugal...

http://www.asebio.com/es/documents/SPANISHREDBIOTECHPIPELINE_2014.pdf

(listed p2 under diagnostics)

[MAC]

Had a bit of a dig looking for hints as to why Oryzon has not got cracking with Cxbladder in Spain.

No answers found, but according to the website of EuropaBio, the Spanish Association of Biotechnology, Cxbladder is, at least, seemingly all good to go in Spain and Portugal...

http://www.asebio.com/es/documents/SPANISHREDBIOTECHPIPELINE_2014.pdf

(listed p2 under diagnostics)

Thanks Psychic for the link.

Oryzon are working through European regulatory approvals at present too, so substantive sales cannot probably occur until that phase is due to be completed.

“In preparation for the launch of Cxbladder in Spain through our commercial partner Oryzon, applications for CE Mark registration and compliance are currently underway.”

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/quality-assurance/

My speculation is that the EU may require clinical trials and/or user programmes to be conducted within their territorial boundaries.

[psychic]

Thanks Mac.

This has no doubt been thrashed around before, but the O'Sullivan et al paper - most of the contributors were associated with PEB. Do you think that perhaps this has held adoption by Urologists in the US back?

[MAC]

Thanks Mac.

This has no doubt been thrashed around before, but the O'Sullivan et al paper - most of the contributors were associated with PEB. Do you think that perhaps this has held adoption by Urologists in the US back?

Shouldn't expect so, the clinical trials and user programmes are independent, Pacific Edge must do what they do and perform the lab tests of course, but the review of performance and judgement is made by clinicians.

Papers are commonly prepared by professionals associated with the innovation, as is the case with my profession too, but whether prepared by associates or otherwise the results are what they are, independent.

[psychic]

Thanks Mac. It is long process getting CMS approval clearly.
Interested to note that there are in fact Companies that specialise in this process:

http://www.advi.com/

ADVI is a boutique health care advisory services firm.
Our business is making companies more valuable.

Our approach:
Develop knowledge of the US and International healthcare markets to identify risks and opportunities
Translate the business implications of health policy and regulation
Create or accelerate market access for new products and services

[Goldstein]

Wonder if PEB has considered using someone like advi, or would do in future? Could be the kick start they need!

I would have thought it was too late for that NG. PEB have their strategy and they are executing it.

[Minerbarejet]

Seem to recall there was some outfit in Austin TX handling this part of things but could be wrong as usual.

A bit of light reading on the current playing field. They dont talk millions here, its billions.

www.fiercediagnostics.com/news (http://www.fiercediagnostics.com/news)

First up is the Israelis developing a bladder cancer test.
WOT??????

Alas it appears I have stumbled upon some opposition

[Tsuba]

Someone gave them a hard time regarding sales on their facebook page. They replied to him. Here is their reply with phone number.

" Hi Matthew, thank you for your interest, please feel free to contact our investor relations manager on +64 3 479 5800 if you want to discuss further. "

Give them a call guys. I may do.

[psychic]

as far as their exact process of doing so yes but it is not the first bio marker test that is less invasive and commercially availability in the US for testing for bladder cancer.
Other similar products are on the market and 1 has been since 2004.
Some of the competition is now showing up in clinical pathways.
So whilst their technology is the first in the world it is not the first in the world as a less invasive urinary bio marker test.
I would have thought that the first mover advantage in this field has long been claimed.
the following link is from the american urologist association or AUA.
Have a look under urine based marker(which PEB is) for the list of competition
As far as I am aware this is the latest clinical guide line put out by the AUA.

http://www.auanet.org/education/guidelines/bladder-cancer.cfm

What I think this link shows is there are many bio markers that have the jump on PEB and you can be sure the developers of each product will be continually improving their technology as well.
Furthermore my research shows that many of the products mentioned are now commercially available with all the approvals and are marketed by massive multi- national pharmaceutical juggernauts with a huge range of products and plenty of clout.

This is current yes, but written 2007, updated 2010
What will the next update say if Urologists are indeed supporting Cxbladder through the User programs?
We know how Cxbladder compares against these tests. This is why we are here.
As it says
"the critical evaluation and comparison of urine-based markers is beyond the scope of the current guideline"

[psychic]

Share your research Snapiti and maybe between us all we can get a better line on this.
But I don't think the threat lies so much with the existing tests

[Tsuba]

Just spoke to head office. The AGM will be broadcasted live on the web from that cool as town Dunedin. So sit back with your half empty or half full glass of wine and take from it what you will.

No doubt your ears will be tuned to your take on the company.

[psychic]

While existing products may not have the same features and therefore not be deemed as a competitive threat, the multi-billion dollar companies that sit behind those products will have distribution channels that PEB couldn't hope replicate in the next 10 years even under its best case scenario. Hence, while not technologically the same, existing products do have the potential to signifcantly undermine the future success of PEB. This is especially true since those large pharma companies are well known to the target market and therefore don't need to prove themselves before shipping products.

This is why getting the right distribution channels - and fast - is so important!

Distribution channels are not as important as the effectiveness of the diagnostic test - surely?

Gaining the support of the Urologists and then obtaining CMS approval must be PEB's focus right now.

[Schrodinger]

Distribution channels are not as important as the effectiveness of the diagnostic test - surely?

Gaining the support of the Urologists and then obtaining CMS approval must be PEB's focus right now.

While technically correct this is not how the USA plays ball. This isnt the NZ market, the American's are ruthless and will win at any cost. Adjust your strategy accordingly.

[winner69]

They absolutely are. In almost any industry, the following phrase applies "its not what you know, but who you know"

Distribution channels are 80% of the challenge IMHO. Without them, you've got nothing.

Right on newguy

But as you said ok PEB have 20 (or something like that) guys on the ground in the US - they must know somebody

[Schrodinger]

Right on newguy

But as you said ok PEB have 20 (or something like that) guys on the ground in the US - they must know somebody

20 guys? I expect huge sales then. What are you expecting for next 6 months.....$5M revenue? To justify the $100M in 4.5 years it will need to be at least that.

Rough calc on sales guys costs (20x$200K=$4M yr) for just them. Get selling boys!

P.S if they aren't paying them a good structure then I would doubt they are good sales guys.

[Schrodinger]

No science in the numbers but my point is you need to reward good sales people. Just indicating good sales people are costly. I dont know any business that have said a sales guy in the US costs less than $200K.

[winner69]

Before I get jumped on and asked for links to factually prove that there are 20 (or so) people in the US it is just a number I vaguely recall from a post on this thread.

Nothing else ... I may have been completely wrong but it ties with indicative US spend PEB provided

[Schrodinger]

Before I get jumped on and asked for links to factually prove that there are 20 (or so) people in the US it is just a number I vaguely recall from a post on this thread.

Nothing else ... I may have been completely wrong but it ties with indicative US spend PEB provided

Noted will be interested in the next half year report. I would hate to see them shifting the goal posts again.

[psychic]

I'd have thought that these guys were out there educating the market for now, not selling kits as suggested here!

Why do you expect PEB to make real sales at this point if Medicare, Vets and Private Insurers are not covering?

Cxbladder needs approval first, old boy networking is not going to change this. Urologist endorsement and clinical utility will be the real test.

I don't dismiss or misunderstand the power of the big Players at all, but am under no illusions as to the job at hand and patience needed.

[psychic]

yes, we all get the need for patience. The point is that we are losing ****loads of money each week that we are waiting for traction. There's only so long that can persist before they either (i) raise more capital, or (ii) implode.

Put simply, time is of the essence!

Think of this ****load as an investment. A nice one.. :)

[andrewm]

Seems like the PEB thread has been hollowed out of late.
I would put money on it that many holders have done little to no research especially the ones selling out sub 80c.
I have enjoyed lurking this site for several years now but with some posters claiming that research has gone to PM I don't want to miss out.
In an effort to try and revitalise this thread and bring back some of the posters I will put out some discussion material.

Quick re-cap
We have a class leading test that in clinical testing has proven to be superior in detection rates to current practice alone.
http://www.cxbladder.com/assets/Marketing-Material/CxBladder-Clinical-Study-US.pdf
It is more comfortable and cheaper than cytoscopy(edit) but is not a replacement for cytoscopy(edit) it will work in conjunction with it.
There is competition from existing tests although they are inferior, they are promoted by big pharma.

Discuss
We have a market for our product and a gap - see the link provided from a study in the US that less than 10% of patients presented with hematuria are referred for bladder screening.
Of those reporting hematuria a little over 1/3 were in the high risk category and met the study criteria (over 40, no previous hematuria work up, 18 months previous data) and of the this 2455 of 6585 only 1/ were treated with some sort of work up. The reasons for this are touched on but significant to us "Practice site was also a significant predictor of referral. Several sites had markedly lower rates of diagnostic testing for patients with hematuria (P < .001 for all sites)."Variability based on nonclinical factors, such as practice site, is undesirable and may be amenable to quality-improvement initiatives, process improvement for coordination of care, and a reduction in logistical barriers for providers and patients," Dr. Friedlander said.
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/813239#1

Wouldnt things be a lot easier if you could just piss in a cup...? Then post it away? _ Pacific edge have stated that they are exceeding the expected turnaround of tests done so far.
I will pre-empt a potential argument "there are existing competing tests why arent they using them?" Because from my research the existing tests do not have the accuracy and if they have the accuracy it will be at the cost of an unacceptable amount of false positives.

And to answer a question above "Distribution channels are not as important as the effectiveness of the diagnostic test - surely?" Well we need both, plenty of examples of a superior product failing against big money.

Our current concerns as shareholders are the wait for CMS coverage, the growth curve (the exponential effect could have us doing 1000 tests, 5000, 20,000 60,000 100,000)
The potential need for another capital raising although the company thinks it will be OK I am skeptical of that claim but would love to see that level of sales it would provide a huge boost to the share price.

Looking forward
The release of the companies other products will be able to slingshot in if CX bladder is a success as pathways and relationships will be in place and if not they they atleast add to the takeover likelyhood and price.
The concerns over DD ability must be looked at knowing that we also have a US CEO.
The medical community is a hard nut to crack and although there is shady monetary deals - doctors and urologists are people of science and have empathy and are very logical.
I believe the patient(pun intended) will be rewarded here with either a buyout or a minimum 5 bagger not including other products if it goes for gold.

I have my own uptake curve which is is more conservative that pacific edge's but still values the company higher than current share price.

[psychic]

Seems like the PEB thread has been hollowed out of late.
I would put money on it that many holders have done little to no research especially the ones selling out sub 80c.
I have enjoyed lurking this site for several years now but with some posters claiming that research has gone to PM I don't want to miss out.
In an effort to try and revitalise this thread and bring back some of the posters I will put out some discussion material.

Quick re-cap
We have a class leading test that in clinical testing has proven to be superior in detection rates to current practice alone.
http://www.cxbladder.com/assets/Marketing-Material/CxBladder-Clinical-Study-US.pdf
It is more comfortable and cheaper than cytology Think you mean cystoscopybut is not a replacement for cytologyyes, it is it will work in conjunction with it.It is a beter adjunct to cystoscopy than existing tests, it also found cancer that cystoscopy did not
There is competition from existing tests although they are inferior, they are promoted by big pharma.

Discuss
We have a market for our product and a gap - see the link provided from a study in the US that less than 10% of patients presented with hematuria are referred for bladder screening.
Of those reporting hematuria a little over 1/3 were in the high risk category and met the study criteria (over 40, no previous hematuria work up, 18 months previous data) and of the this 2455 of 6585 only 1/ were treated with some sort of work up. The reasons for this are touched on but significant to us "Practice site was also a significant predictor of referral. Several sites had markedly lower rates of diagnostic testing for patients with hematuria (P < .001 for all sites)."Variability based on nonclinical factors, such as practice site, is undesirable and may be amenable to quality-improvement initiatives, process improvement for coordination of care, and a reduction in logistical barriers for providers and patients," Dr. Friedlander said.
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/813239#1not sure i follow this?

Wouldnt things be a lot easier if you could just piss in a cup...? Then post it away? _ Pacific edge have stated that they are exceeding the expected turnaround of tests done so far.okay, it's not a cup but agree it is easy
I will pre-empt a potential argument "there are existing competing tests why arent they using them?" Because from my research the existing tests do not have the accuracy and if they have the accuracy it will be at the cost of an unacceptable amount of false positives.

And to answer a question above "Distribution channels are not as important as the effectiveness of the diagnostic test - surely?" Well we need both, plenty of examples of a superior product failing against big money.examples please, particularly if relevent to cancer and diagnostics

Our current concerns as shareholders are the wait for CMS coverage, the growth curve (the exponential effect could have us doing 1000 tests, 5000, 20,000 60,000 100,000)
The potential need for another capital raising although the company thinks it will be OK I am skeptical of that claim but would love to see that level of sales it would provide a huge boost to the share price.

Looking forward
The release of the companies other products will be able to slingshot in if CX bladder is a success as pathways and relationships will be in place and if not they they atleast add to the takeover likelyhood and price.
The concerns over DD ability must be looked at knowing that we also have a US CEO. don't follow sorry
The medical community is a hard nut to crack and although there is shady monetary deals - doctors and urologists are people of science and have empathy and are very logical.
I believe the patient(pun intended) will be rewarded here with either a buyout or a minimum 5 bagger not including other products if it goes for gold.

I have my own uptake curve which is is more conservative that pacific edge's but still values the company higher than current share price.

Thanks Andrew, have made a few comments (bold) within your text for further discussion. cheers

[andrewm]

Woops cytology instead of cytoscopy, have corrected. Will come back to cytoscopy later will require some digging up old info.

As for the discuss section - lots of hematuria not investigated although the article didnt have all the reasons why we know that the current gold standard is not an easy test and hence patients are graded on risk rather than widespread testing. As for practice site being significant I read that as - a number of sites doing less testing due to various issues with administering the test whether the access to urological facilities, number of practitioners etc. The CX bladder tests are portable and would require very little training and largely avoid logistical issues.

As for the US CEO, Jackie Walker, She led a biotech startup previously and is in in charge of US growth. DD has been criticized for not being capable of leading US growth but he is not soley responsible for that.
Most recently Jackie was President and CEO of OSspray, a UK headquartered biotech start-up. She led the company from founding IP technology through business plan development and fund raising to clinical validation, regulatory approval, global product commercialisation, and scale-up leading to strategic acquisition.
David Darling, CEO of Pacific Edge, said: ‘we are thrilled to have Jackie Walker drive our growth in the US. She is a strategic, results-oriented, and passionate executive with 25 years experience in the Life Sciences/Medical Device Industry. She has an outstanding background in P&L management, Sales and Marketing, New Product Development, and Operations. Her experience spans large global companies as well as start-ups.’

[andrewm]

Psychic, this from the PEB website about cytoscopy and cx bladder

How Cxbladder can be used in your practice:

Replace the need for other urine-based tests in primary workup.
Complement cystoscopy for bladder cancer detection.
Detect urothelial tumours not visible by cystoscopy.
Replace the need for CT / IVP in primary workup in some instances.
Improve patient compliance with accurate, non-invasive testing.

Other applications may include:

Complement cystoscopy for monitoring bladder cancer recurrence.
Increase the interval between surveillance cystoscopies in certain circumstances.
Triage patients presenting with micro-haematuria that do not need a full workup.
Patient prioritisation in high throughput settings.
Evaluate patients in ‘at-risk’ populations.

[Beagle]

The resident lab rat isn't happy today. As some of you recall the unfortunate rat presented just over 3 weeks ago with a UTI and some bleeding and a very bad fever that landed him in the hospital. Luckily said rat was aware of the CX bladder test and felt fortunate to live in the Waitemata DHB area where he knows they've had a pilot programme running for a while so after the antibiotics cleared up his UTI he very reluctantly headed down to his doctor when he finally ran out of Vitamen D and blood pressure pills to face the music on what follow up tests the poor old rodent would have to confront

The good news was that some bleeding with UTI's is not uncommon and there was a clear case of infection detected in the rat's blood so the rat perked up a bit when he heard that and asked what the hospital had recommended be done in terms of follow up tests in the letter they said they'd write to the Doctor. What letter ? Somewhat concerned the rat become somewhat agitated and thought he'd cut too the chase if he wanted his lunch anytime that day..,have you heard about the Cx bladder test programme being run by the Waitemata DHB ?, (doctor is highly experienced and lives in Waitemata DHB area), what CX bladder test ?

Hmmm, rat becomes uncomfortable and explains to his own doctor what's involved and ponders how a doctor living in the Waitemata DHB isn't aware of the test or the pilot programme and wonders if he's not aware of it, how would others be ?
Luckily Rat remembers to bring his printed out blood analysis along, (which he asked for when in hospital) and gives that to his Doctor.
If he hadn't asked for that and brought it along there would be nothing too go on at this stage, which goes to show a smart rat looks after his own health).

Doctor spots something in the blood analysis he doesn't like so orders another blood sample, (Rat is too scared too ask what), and a three phase urine sample with some microscope analysis looking for cancer cells, (rats eye's are starting too glaze over as he's now lost in medical jargon, so he blurted out, perhaps seeing as they were going to write too you with follow up action and seeing as you havn't got that letter, you should write to them and ask for a recommended follow up course of action including whether we should do a CX bladder test. Doctor agrees this is a good course of action but cautions about how long it might take for their reply.

Rat slinks off to ponder whether he's really received decent health care service from professionals and wonders if his doctor hasn't even heard of it how many others wouldn't have either.

[Meister]

Far out. Hope you get some good results Roger, thanks for keeping us informed.

I am frustrated your doctor hasn't even heard of the test. Might be worth an email to be honest, feels a bit ridiculous. Does signing up the DHBs mean nothing? Does each and every doctor actually require a sales person to visit them personally or something?

[baller18]

Far out. Hope you get some good results Roger, thanks for keeping us informed.

I am frustrated your doctor hasn't even heard of the test. Might be worth an email to be honest, feels a bit ridiculous. Does signing up the DHBs mean nothing? Does each and every doctor actually require a sales person to visit them personally or something?

Wishing you a speedy recovery roger.

Not sure if you have been following my previous posts, but a lot of doctors in a small country like ours have not heard of cxbladder at all!!!

[nextbigthing]

It's often remarked that 'wealth is being transferred from the impatient to the patient'. In some situations this is true, MFT and AIA are great examples from the last couple of years. However in in PEB's case (and probably a lot of other stocks), there's a better saying - wealth is currently being transferred from the static to the dynamic. A dynamic investor could easily have purchased in the uptrend, sold as soon as the directors sold out and it confirmed its downtrend and can be waiting now for it to change momentum. It's not about being impatient, it's about being dynamic to maximise the potential. How much money has been lost by people on here being static, not reacting to the current situation?

For some people buying and holding obviously works, it suits their lifestyle/time available/desired stress and that's fine. I do the same with stocks such as MFT. However why be static with your PEB holding when the shareprice is still descending? You can easily buy back in. Currently at least, wealth is being transferred from the static to the dynamic investors.

I was fortunate enough to have followed Moosies journey with DIL which taught me a great lesson or two for free (thanks Moosie). If it wasn't for this, I'd probably still holding my whole parcel - fortunately I saw the tide and got out (residual holding still) at a good enough time.

Please understand, I'm not trying to downramp here. I'm genuinely trying to help people realise what has happened (potential sale price of $1.70 v $0.80 now) so even if they've missed the boat this time getting out of PEB, maybe it can help next time. Sure hindsight's a wonderful thing, but another great saying, don't fight a downtrend. And I'm not advocating being twitchy and selling as soon as something drops one %. But when a company stumbles at a hurdle and is going to take six months to potentially jump the next one (meaningful sales) then why not go with another companies race until they pick themselves up?

Each to their own and do what works for you. But sometimes, just sometimes, even seemingly worthless dribble posts can contain some great lessons and info, even though sometimes it's unintentional or in disguise!

Happy investing and here's hoping for a turnaround (for investors and patients!).

NBT

Disc) Residual holding in PEB, watching closely. Hold MFT.

[psychic]

Nah - good post NBT, but guess someones gotta squawk in response ..

Firstly. and can we be clear on this. The directors have not sold out.

Secondly, how many nutters are going to sell you back a goodly sized holding at this SP or close when PEB announces CMS coverage?

And how many of you will be bidding for the nutters holding at that time?

Continue watching closely I guess, but not sure if the bus will stop

cheers


Roger - thanks for sharing dude. Hope all clears up quickly.
PS - Time for a change of Doc?..

[Beagle]

Far out. Hope you get some good results Roger, thanks for keeping us informed.

I am frustrated your doctor hasn't even heard of the test. Might be worth an email to be honest, feels a bit ridiculous. Does signing up the DHBs mean nothing? Does each and every doctor actually require a sales person to visit them personally or something?

Thanks mate. Imagine how frustrated I feel. I arrived at the Doctor today expoecting to discuss the specific set of follow up tests the hospital recommnded. I'm more than a little peeved they didn't even see fit to write to my doctor after saying they would send him a detailed letter. The doctors seemed nice in there and I have their names so I'm writing a carefully worded letter to the general manager of the Waitemata DHB tomorrow. I am going to make it clear that I expect ungent communication of exactly what follow up tests they recommend.

[nextbigthing]

Nah - good post NBT, but guess someones gotta squawk in response ..

Firstly. and can we be clear on this. The directors have not sold out.

Secondly, how many nutters are going to sell you back a goodly sized holding at this SP or close when PEB announces CMS coverage?

And how many of you will be bidding for the nutters holding at that time?

Continue watching closely I guess, but not sure if the bus will stop

cheers


Roger - thanks for sharing dude. Hope all clears up quickly.
PS - Time for a change of Doc?..

Hey Psy,

Sold out was an incorrect choice of words. I should've said sold down. The general point remains the same however.

Secondly, yes you will miss the first spike when they announce coverage. However last time people were still selling the whole way up (I agree they were nutters :) ) so getting back onboard will be possible.

As I say, not for everyone, but it's not hard to see the benefits in PEB's case IMHO.

PS) Best of luck Roger. Demand 1000 cxbladder tests ;) All the best.

[andrewm]

Roger, that is a disappointing story I look forward to much more widespread knowledge of CX bladder and the difference it can make. I havent had much luck with doctors myself, one loading a needle and going to inject me with epinephrine (adrenaline) instead of anaesthetic before an eagle eyed nurse stopped them and another diagnosing my blood shot eyes and skin rash as a virus when 'auckland measles epidemic' was all over the news, oh boy did I have measles.
As the medical profession is made more aware of CX bladder the simplicity of the kits will be such a bonus, pacific edge states they are simple enough to use at home.

Something I haven't seen mentioned is the high quality of the CX bladder and Pacific edge website. As someone who is relatively tech savvy and appreciates design these websites are great, well designed easy to find information in a logical layout and the thought just occurred to me - it is veryAmerican. The photos particularly give a very American big Pharma feel and I think this is a great thing.
Of course I wont get carried away its only great if people see it.

In the interests of continuing research in this thread i am posting a link to a 2008 paper titled "Critical Evaluation of Urinary Markers for Bladder Cancer and Detection" it may have been posted in the past but as the thread is hundreds of pages long and im sure someone will get some value I will post it.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2483317/

This article although it is 2008 and doesn't contain CX bladder it does contain many potential and real competitors and analyses them before coming to the conclusion that none of them are quite right.
Comparing what we know about CX bladder shows it to be overall a superior test and I believe if the test was to include CX bladder now that the authors would accept it as the 'right' test.

[psychic]

Hey Psy,

Sold out was an incorrect choice of words. I should've said sold down. The general point remains the same however.

Secondly, yes you will miss the first spike when they announce coverage. However last time people were still selling the whole way up (I agree they were nutters :) ) so getting back onboard will be possible.

As I say, not for everyone, but it's not hard to see the benefits in PEB's case IMHO.

PS) Best of luck Roger. Demand 1000 cxbladder tests ;) All the best.


NBT, I still seem to be at odds with many here over this "insider's selling" thing. I don't have records with me, but I seem to recall:

Swan sold 340k but still holds about 800k (and DD told us this sale had nothing to do with where PEB was at)
Darling sold 180k but still holds about 3.0m.
Masfens have been selling down over the last couple of years anyway - and we know from ST that they recently pumped funds into some new venture (it's name escapes me)

So they all still have significant skin in the game right? Please tell me if I have missed something.

The significant shareholders are also rock steady

On the problem of getting back in, I would suggest that there were maybe more nutters as buyers than sellers last time round when the four Payer announcements were made. Most buyers did not understand that these were not great deals. The nutters put the price at $1.70. even DD is on record as stating the SP had surprised him. It was not nutters selling then!

Look, I don't know jack sh+t about it all really, but I wonder if the remaining long term holders of this stock might be a lot better informed than in the past, and will KNOW what a CMS announcement will really mean for PEB. You won't buy from them then.

Keep the faith bro..

[Carpenterjoe]

Psychic, this from the PEB website about cytoscopy and cx bladder

How Cxbladder can be used in your practice:



Replace the need for other urine-based tests in primary workup.
Complement cystoscopy for bladder cancer detection.
Detect urothelial tumours not visible by cystoscopy.
Replace the need for CT / IVP in primary workup in some instances.
Improve patient compliance with accurate, non-invasive testing.

Other applications may include:



Complement cystoscopy for monitoring bladder cancer recurrence.
Increase the interval between surveillance cystoscopies in certain circumstances.
Triage patients presenting with micro-haematuria that do not need a full workup.
Patient prioritisation in high throughput settings.
Evaluate patients in ‘at-risk’ populations.



Remember some treatment drugs are only available if you go with their testing kit

[Bobcat.]

PEB is about to test yesterday's low where it found good support at 75c.

If it drops through that, I have a cheeky bid sitting at 70c, with a stop loss at 67. Provided Equity markets off shore hold up well enough, me thinks we are this week going to see a double bottom.

Trading to it.

BC

[Beagle]

Andrewm - thanks for that and for the link which I'll review as soon as I get some time.
Through a business association I know another doctor in the Waitemata DHB area who has just retired so I phoned him this morning, (I had too anyway about a business matter), and afterwards brought up the Cx Bladder test subject.
As luck would have it he'd recently had a bad UTI himself so we compared notes. He knew about the Cx bladder test, (so that's a 50% knowledge rate based on my very small sample of 2 doctors in two days), but he said he preferred traditional diagnostic methodologies...you can't beat sticking a camera up there and having a look and taking a biopsy and went into other medical jargon.
When I said the Cx bladder test had >90% sucess rate for detection of bladder cancer he was impressed.

Couple of impressions from today and yesterday's lab rat interaction.
1. Based on what is I conceed an incredibly small sample size, I think Doctors appear to be old school and are reluctant to diverge from traditional proceedures.
2. If Doctors in the country of origin where the product is made and in the DHB area wherre a pilot programme has been running for a while either arn't aware of, or reluctant to use Cx bladder tests even in circumstances where they're running diagnostic's on their own health problem, exactly how hard is it going to be for this product to get commercial traction internationally...

[psychic]

Andrewm - thanks for that and for the link which I'll review as soon as I get some time.
Through a business association I know another doctor in the Waitemata DHB area who has just retired so I phoned him this morning, (I had too anyway about a business matter), and afterwards brought up the Cx Bladder test subject.
As luck would have it he'd recently had a bad UTI himself so we compared notes. He knew about the Cx bladder test, (so that's a 50% knowledge rate based on my very small sample of 2 doctors in two days), but he said he preferred traditional diagnostic methodologies...you can't beat sticking a camera up there and having a look and taking a biopsy and went into other medical jargon.
When I said the Cx bladder test had >90% sucess rate for detection of bladder cancer he was impressed.

Couple of impressions from today and yesterday's lab rat interaction.
1. Based on what is I conceed an incredibly small sample size, I think Doctors appear to be old school and are reluctant to diverge from traditional proceedures.
2. If Doctors in the country of origin where the product is made and in the DHB area wherre a pilot programme has been running for a while either arn't aware of, or reluctant to use Cx bladder tests even in circumstances where they're running diagnostic's on their own health problem, exactly how hard is it going to be for this product to get commercial traction internationally...

Morning Roger.
Worrying yes. But I wonder how much energy has gone into the NZ and Aust market given the size? Hasn't PEB's focus always been the US and particularly the LUGs / Policy Makers rather than trying to win over every MD/ Urologist?

[enzed staffy]

Perhaps the reluctance to adopt less than 100% reliable tests has something to do with the consequences of getting it wrong...? Not only for the patient, but the patient, public and media in this country are quick to crucify the career and reputation of anyone they feel aggrieved by whether or not its a reasonable complaint.
There's a potential risk for patient and doctor - question is how big is this risk perceived to be?

[psychic]

NG, We don't know how busy the US lab is do we?
If it is flat out processing tests for Urologists under User programs and thereby establishing Cxbladder in the process, would you suggest the same course of action outlined?

[psychic]

Again - we do not know. You may be right or completely wrong.

[aGuyCalledBob]

Its interesting to see a few stories about the lack of knowledge doctors have here in NZ. I wonder if people realise how much effect this might have in regards to the uptake of all PEBs current and future products.

Also, is it just NZ or are doctors as bad in the US?

We have spent a LOT of time recently with doctors both here and in Spain, and what a difference!

Here are some stories if you find this angle interesting:

my wife presented with a lump on the tummy.
doc - I wouldnt worry about it
wife - can I have a scan or something
doc- if you want, but its a waste of money
wife got scan and returns with results...
doc - wow! a hernia! I would never have guessed, still, wouldn't worry about it
wife - but I want to get pregnant.
doc - yeah, its fine. dont worry about it. here is a pamphlet if you want to read about hernias.
pamphlet specifically states - very dangerous, you must have it fixed if you want to get pregnant

yeah, ok.. that just 1 bad GP.. right...??
Daughter is born with suspected Holdenhar or CHARGE syndrome
she has obvious malformation of the ear and a small eye and is examined by a paediatrician, over the next 4 months she is examined my another 3 paediatricians and genetics specialist. multiple scans are done all over her body. nothing is found, but 2 noted a "slightly anterior anus" - no big deal.

At 5 months old we go to Spain (wife is Spanish) the first paediatrician she see notices that her anus is not inside the muscle (sphincter) and she need surgery to reposition it or will be incontinent for life! also, dangerously small.
This is later confirmed by the doc that pioneered the surgery via a photo over email. thats how obvious it was.
Also, she has other infection/inflammations in her kidneys that scans in NZ missed.

The above are only hilights, I could go on but this is not the place, hopefully I have made my point as it relates to CxBladder awareness...

IMHO...
if 3 out of 3 NZ docs dont even know what an a**Hole should look like, or how to read a scan. Dont expect them to know the latest procedures and technologies for cancer detection.

Hopefully the US is more like Spain

[Balance]

what do you mean? Their revenues were absolutely absymal in the states, like less than 200 test or something. Even if they are doing 10 times as many free tests, that's still only 2000.

The lab in the US can do 260,000 tests.

Get it??

NewGuy, you are getting hysterical ....!

Relax, the market is always about opposing viewpoints.

In this case, you were expecting Ferrari speed while others are prepared to accept locomotive speed - takes a little while to pick up steam.

[MAC]

Hi Roger,

It is a good thing, I’m sure most probably think, that the medical sector is conservative, they must be because our lives are frequently in their hands. Resistance to change is built in to clinician’s ethos, although, new innovations do obviously get adopted over time as they become accepted by key medical journals and organisations.

The Pacific Edge advisory board are surely well aware of this, you just have to look at the depth of the panel to imagine they are aware of adoption practices and timeframes as experts within their own sector.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/

From a commercial perspective, Pacific Edge are also aware, this is why they are working to a five year plan, at which time they anticipate having achieved a humble 10% penetration. Such that, in five year’s time 10% of clinicians would be regularly using Cxbladder.

On a ramp up and growth curve basis, in year one IMHO, even a 0.5% penetration or there about would be absolutely fantastic. Such that 0.5% of clinicians might be regularly using Cxbladder, let’s see how it goes.

It’s really way too early in the big scheme of things to assess the rate of uptake and hardly surprising that a lot of busy docs haven’t yet got across the development. Although my GP is actually a shareholder, so there you go.

The approach at present is a top down one, as it must be, it requires a priority on HIH, DHB, PPO, HMO and CMS management. The docs are only permitted to use practices first approved by their management and by patient insurers. A focus on individual GP’s should come later in the five year plan, and the word will spread, I wouldn’t be concerned at this early stage.

Trust you mend well.

kind regards, Mac

[psychic]

I have quietly explained why sales without Insurance or CMS coverage will be zip.
Sales in $ terms will have absolutely no relevance to test throughput at this time
Get it?

[psychic]

I did not say it was operating at full capacity NG.

[Tsuba]

Well done NewGuy. You have progressed from being a doom merchant to being a marketing expert in biotechnology. Give that man a job. I look forward to my next red flag.

[MAC]

NewGuy, would you be supportive of a poll:

"Do you think that knockers can actually influence the shareprice"

[psychic]

Oh FFS, forget it.
It is your silly suggestion that they essentially shut up shop because the have not racked up sales that is the issue.

[Tsuba]

Got my red flag from you know who.

[andrewm]

I'm just amazed that someone could think the US lab is operating at full capacity given that it can do 260,000 tests per year.

What do you think of my suggested strategy, tho?

Im happy that new guy is raising these questions.

1- Buy once buy right, likely they purchased the equipment they will need for a large amount of tests now rather than buy and then replace at a greater cost later (something I see often in my line of work)
2- Being able to advertise you have a certified lab that can handle 260,000 a year shows you are serious when you are trying to sell your product, can you imagine going to a urology conference and saying "we have built a lab that can process 10,000 tests per year" Pacific Edge has been laying good foundations.

As for your strategy - I believe it will be easier to leverage a US success into NZ/Aus than vice versa. Pacific edge has prepared to go big and is not about to cap itself.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I vote to abolish the whole silly system!

It has only become an issue in recent times as people just have far too much emotion around their investments and can't bare hearing the other side of the coin, especially when they have been losing so much money on these tech/biotech stocks.

[Beagle]

Hi Roger,

It is a good thing, I’m sure most probably think, that the medical sector is conservative, they must be because our lives are frequently in their hands. Resistance to change is built in to clinician’s ethos, although, new innovations do obviously get adopted over time as they become accepted by key medical journals and organisations.

The Pacific Edge advisory board are surely well aware of this, you just have to look at the depth of the panel to imagine they are aware of adoption practices and timeframes as experts within their own sector.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/

From a commercial perspective, Pacific Edge are also aware, this is why they are working to a five year plan, at which time they anticipate having achieved a humble 10% penetration. Such that, in five year’s time 10% of clinicians would be regularly using Cxbladder.

On a ramp up and growth curve basis, in year one IMHO, even a 0.5% penetration or there about would be absolutely fantastic. Such that 0.5% of clinicians might be regularly using Cxbladder, let’s see how it goes.

It’s really way too early in the big scheme of things to assess the rate of uptake and hardly surprising that a lot of busy docs haven’t yet got across the development. Although my GP is actually a shareholder, so there you go.

The approach at present is a top down one, as it must be, it requires a priority on HIH, DHB, PPO, HMO and CMS management. The docs are only permitted to use practices first approved by their management and by patient insurers. A focus on individual GP’s should come later in the five year plan, and the word will spread, I wouldn’t be concerned at this early stage.

Trust you mend well.

kind regards, Mac

Hi Mac,

Many thanks for that...a very good balanced perspective.
As a professional myself, (Accountant) I can totally relate to the slow uptake of new methodologies and i'm exactly the same age as my own doctor (52), so can completly understand relying on the tried and tested. One thing I will say is that when I talked to him about this new CX bladder test proceedure he was very interested.
As you've suggested good things take time and the uptake rate with healthcare professionals they're projecting seems realistic for what is clearly an extremly high calibre testing proceedure.

On a personal note, thank you very much guys fior your best wishes and kind thoughts.
I'm feeling 100%. The antibiotics cleared up the UTI completly and there was no more bleeding after being discharged from hospital on 1 June. I'm sure this is just a bad UTI and my doctor was very re-assuring when he said bleeding was not uncommon from a bad case of UTI, (the bladder gets quite inflammed).

I e.mailed the DHB this morning, (bleating like a lamb lost from its mother) about the lack of follow up communication to my doctor and specifically asked in the DHB would fund a CX Bladder test for me. It'll be interesting to see their response and I'll pay for it myself as a precautionary measure if they decline. At least that's one more sale for PEB to help their business make headway :)

[andrewm]

Thanks for your recent input, but that is a truly amazing statement. Flies in the face of the conventional wisdom. Be interested to hear your logic if/when you have time and can be bothered. :)

Medicine is whole different kettle of fish to consumer products with all the hoops and hurdles to go through, as we are all aware the acceptance process takes time and effort.
By racking up a number of continued publications in US journals and acceptance as a US gold standard for patients presenting with Hematuria, coming back to New Zealand should pose no issues, not that I'm saying Pacific Edge is ignoring New Zealand just answering your question as to why they don't give up on the US for now.
Im not aware of a New Zealand urological journal that carries weight worldwide(although New Zealand is included in the British Journal of urology which is 15th down the list of urology journals with impact), however the Journal of the American Urological association...
It also works because a US success would generate a huge amount of money.
The gist of my argument is that Major American universities and publications carry more weight than New Zealand one.

Of course this is only my opinion from my research, I look forward to continued debate.

[andrewm]

I would also like to add, I believe the US market is a harder nut to crack due to the way their pharmaceutical industry works and the protectionism that will likely occur.
"If you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a ball."

[andrewm]

Exactly, walk before you can crawl.

Most businesses find it much easier to penetrate markets - especially with disruptive technology - in their own country, hence my surprise at your comment :)

IMO they are doing both, they are confident in their product and they have a New Zealand team and a US team with a US CEO. Even a minor US success will bring in big revenue.

[geo]

Having sold out of PEB for a healthy profit and very happy, But it was only a small part of my portfolio which I classed as a speculative buy never an investment. Anything that does not generate income is not a investment gold and silver are not, land is not unless it is leased. I probably stayed in to long but wanted to see the sales result was not impressed this company has a long way to go before it can be classed an investment.

As I have stated before cant fault the science but not sure current management is up to the task to many conflicting statements, vagueness about next product to come online, valuations to come out shortly yet to see. What this company needs is to find a large partner let them take over and pay PEB royalties. The way PEB is burning through the cash it wont be long before they are begging the shareholders for yet another capital raising. So it has a long way to go before being called an investment.

[MAC]

I just see a company moving along a development and commercialisation timeline very well, sure and steadily, confidently ticking off milestones as they go.

Pacific Edge could have sold out or gone with a US JV, this would have provided shareholders with a quick buck, but would not have rewarded shareholders nearly as well in the medium to long run.

Very often JV’s underperform in house operations, I do think they have their place though, and I think Pacific Edge are doing the right thing in Europe by entering the market through a JV, there are simply too many EU regulatory hurdles to jump to initially go it alone.

ATM are in a similar position and have taken the same approach with their Muller Wiseman JV in entering Europe, it allowed them to use existing contacts and to gain a foot hold. ATM have since bought out the JV partner and are going it alone, as now established, they are better motivated to sell and push the product themselves.

The US is a more open market, and Pacific edge have established a separate commercial company in PEDusa, perhaps we will see a PEDeurope within a couple of years too, who knows. I suspect ATM will enter the US with their own company also and we should find out anytime about now.

Fed by very high quality low cost research and development out of PEB, PEDusa could well become quite a substantial company within the biotech sector in a few years.

Patience Provides Prosperity.

[MAC]

the part of your post I have highlighted is utter crap and nothing more than ramping.
You are the first to want posters to prove with links and god not what else to support their opinions and statements....... so where is the proof that PEB could have sold out or gone with a joint venture that would have provided shareholders a quick buck.
The only thing I have seen or heard from the company is the exact opposite to what you are saying.
PEB management have openly said they have made several attempts at a JV but have been turned down.
Seems to me that PEB have had no choice but to go it alone.

There’s no need to be insulting Snapiti, that’s just unnecessary don’t you think.

I only know what Pacific Edge have told us directly, when asked at the last AGM if they had been approached by any Pharma’s, the reply provided from CS and DD whilst on the podium, was that “yes they had been approached but had managed to fend them off”.

The audience of shareholders present seemed quite satisfied with that response and there were no follow up questions raised.

[psychic]

the part of your post I have highlighted is utter crap and nothing more than ramping.
You are the first to want posters to prove with links and god not what else to support their opinions and statements....... so where is the proof that PEB could have sold out or gone with a joint venture that would have provided shareholders a quick buck.
The only thing I have seen or heard from the company is the exact opposite to what you are saying.
PEB management have openly said they have made several attempts at a JV but have been turned down.
Seems to me that PEB have had no choice but to go it alone.

Snapiti. Aside from NG's claims that PEB has been on the market, what evidence do you have? They approached Roche, then decided to go it alone. As far as I know they have not been looking for suiters - They do not want to sell!

Please make time to listen to the double shot interview, then tell me where we have this wrong. No more stupid rants eh?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE43Of1TUGY

[psychic]

This is totally insane....... approached by other pharma's for what.... a cup of tea and cake... it is just further proof of the companies rhetoric.
If the company had received a genuine take over offer this would have to go to a shareholders vote....... so who's kidding who here.

I know you are well aware that, recently, the company has clarified it's position on what has occurred so far with the process of finding a joint venture partner.
But your post clearly indicates they could of gone with a US joint venture when you know the company has just clarified this by admitting they have tried several times but were rebuffed.

Obviously not going to respond to my last post Snapiti.

Are you are saying that "the company has clarified it's position on what has occurred so far with the process of finding a joint venture partner" because a poster on here called New Guy says that this is what he thought he understood from the recent Shareholders Assn meeting?
Is that it?

[psychic]

mate, you are wasting your time here. This forum is full of some very smart and interesting people. However, many other's actually have no idea. I've been shocked over the last few months to realise just how little some people actually know/understand/listen/absorb/learn.

Don't waste your time.

HAHAHAHA. Coming from you pal that is precious

[psychic]

Actually, other posters eventually/begrudgingly confirmed that myreporting of the event was indeed accurate. Let it go psychic.

Um, no. Ill take my info from the source I think..
Disprove it

[MAC]

I think you will find that Pacific Edge and Roche had some healthy discussion very early when Cxbladder was in the research phase, when the Cxbladder product was still a lab bound concept.

The company has come a very long way since those days, put more meat on the bones, clinical trials, regulatory approvals, user programmes, more prospective products, the start of commercialisation, and we have been told more recently, less than a year ago, that they have since fended off approaches by the Pharma's.

Hancock's has clarified all this on several occasions that I can recall, but sure let's have the same discussion all over again because all forum members like to read the same posts over and over.


I think there is some confusion in the information reported from the Share Holders Association meeting; the interview with Andrew Patterson 28th October 2013 may help regarding the approaches to big pharma with the gene profile to sell under licence in the early stages of Pacific Edge (~4:45). It just shows that without validation, do not believe everything that is posted here; the delivery may distort the message.

There is some really good history about Pacific Edge in the 'Double Shot Interview with David and Andrew Patterson, I have attached a link to the full interview.

HyperLink: David Darling Double Shot Interview (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE43Of1TUGY)

[psychic]

I have absolutely no interest in covering all this material again. Nice try, though.

No , I am not interested in your recollection

I was asking you for some form of proof that PEB approached Roche (or anyone for that matter) with a view to selling or J/V , SINCE they decided to go it alone.

What is this about "being caught out before"??

[andrewm]

May 2014 study- Hematuria overlooked as a sign of bladder cancer in women.
"Only 14% of the beneficiaries who met the study criteria had a complete hematuria evaluation; 21% had incomplete examinations and 65% had none at all."
"Dr. Barocas and colleagues speculate that some primary care practitioners may assume a woman presenting with new or recurrent hematuria has a urinary tract infection and treat her empirically with antibiotics, and that this process may be repeated over several visits until the woman develops other, more serious symptoms that lead to a diagnosis of later-stage bladder cancer.
They are hesitant, however, to lay the blame at the door of their colleagues in primary care. Instead, they say, all clinicians need better tools for risk-stratifying patients for hematuria evaluations. They also urge development of collaborative efforts between urologists and primary care practitioners that emphasize the need for earlier detection of bladder cancer in women and address sex-based disparities in bladder cancer survival."
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/825327

[Meister]

May 2014 study- Hematuria overlooked as a sign of bladder cancer in women.
"Only 14% of the beneficiaries who met the study criteria had a complete hematuria evaluation; 21% had incomplete examinations and 65% had none at all."
"Dr. Barocas and colleagues speculate that some primary care practitioners may assume a woman presenting with new or recurrent hematuria has a urinary tract infection and treat her empirically with antibiotics, and that this process may be repeated over several visits until the woman develops other, more serious symptoms that lead to a diagnosis of later-stage bladder cancer.
They are hesitant, however, to lay the blame at the door of their colleagues in primary care. Instead, they say, all clinicians need better tools for risk-stratifying patients for hematuria evaluations. They also urge development of collaborative efforts between urologists and primary care practitioners that emphasize the need for earlier detection of bladder cancer in women and address sex-based disparities in bladder cancer survival."
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/825327

Another positive find andrewm, but I dont think anybody is really questioning the need for a product like CxBladder, it is all business related worries.
I think most would agree PEB have a great product. Just have to wait and see how the sales strategy unfolds.
I wish PEB was slightly more transparent. The quarterly report on tests done that was suggested as a possibility would be great, as would any commentary around CMS.... for now we just have to wait.

[MAC]

Here Snapiti, I found the post AGM link just for you. It must be a tough life being a knocker when there's always a tidal wave of facts coming the other way.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/269976/pacific-edge-100m-forecast

“On a question posed about being bought by a large pharmaceutical company, Mr Darling reassured investors that such a buyout would have to be considered by the board in the light of what would be in the best interests of shareholders.

''They find juicy morsels like Pacific Edge, then scoop it up. That will come in time,'' Mr Darling predicted.

After the meeting, he said one unidentified pharmaceutical company had approached the board and, had it not been for the global financial crisis, might have gone on to consider a buyout offer, Mr Darling said.”

[Goldstein]

Yep.

Step 1. in a GP's diagnostic arsenal is to prescribe anntibiotics. If they don't work then it's either a virus or cancer.

Bacteria have had no choice but to adapt to an antibiotic-saturated environment.

The MoH should issue a directive for GP's to test for cancer before prescribijng antibiotics for patients presenting with hematuria.

[psychic]

Firstly it looks like the decision to go it alone was not PEB decesion but forced upon them through lack of choice.
Secondly as NG has said it is already been covered but nice try.
Thirdly psychic and mac if you want to believe that the company has had so many offers in the early days to either purchase the company or go into a joint venture that they have had to fend them off despite representative from the company recently stating the opposite good luck to your investing career.

I don't know if you are being deliberately mischievous Snapiti, but
1. Possibly, but the issue is, have they been trying to sell SINCE developing CXbladder
2. Point me in the direction please.
3. I have not said anything of the sort and I don't think MAC has either. What are you on?

[ziggy415]

now now children...how can i learn if you carry on like this :t_up:

[ziggy415]

just need to weed out the blatent ramping from the facts and you will learn plenty ziggy.:)
sorry snap was not really pointing the finger at anyone in particular but everybody seems to know a little bit but some speculation and ego,s appear to get in the way of a good discussion ....I think the cx bladder sounds a good product but people may have too high an expectation too soon

[Minerbarejet]

just need to weed out the blatent ramping from the facts and you will learn plenty ziggy.:)You would need a hoe for that.:)

[andrewm]

chinese hospital 'fuda cancer hospital' identifies CXbladder on website.
There are newer non-invasive urine bound markers available as aids in the diagnosis of bladder cancer, including human complement factor H-related protein, high-molecular-weight carcinoembryonic antigen, and nuclear matrix protein 22 (NMP22). NMP22 is also available as a prescription home test. Other non-invasive urine based tests include the CertNDx Bladder Cancer Assay, which combines FGFR3 mutation detection with protein and DNA methylation markers to detect cancers across stage and grade, UroVysion, and Cxbladder.
http://www.fudahospital.com/en_asp_new/show_info.asp?article_showid=404#.U6p2qPmSyzN
Dated 27/08/13

I realise its not as significant as promoting the product but nice that the name is spreading.

Also - some web activity happening that wasnt last year- this from the Bladder Cancer Advocacy Network http://www.bcan.org/ dated Feb 11 2014

Hi All,

There has been a lot of discussion in the community recently about testing methods and CxBladder.
Pacific Edge Ltd., the company that produces CxBladder, posted a press release about the test and its effectiveness in detecting bladder cancer. You can read more about the product using the link below and should consult your doctor about whether the test is right for you. As always, we encourage everyone to be proactive in treatment choices.

http://www.cxbladder.com/news/cxbladder-boosting-confidence-in-bladder-canc er-detection-in-the-us (http://www.cxbladder.com/news/cxbladder-boosting-confidence-in-bladder-cancer-detection-in-the-us)

Thank you,
The Staff at BCAN

[nextbigthing]

Sweet. Caught up on the PEB thread for today. There's about 20 mins or so of my life I'm not getting back.

If I'm not snorting cocaine off a hooker by 10pm then tonight will have been a complete waste of time.

(Just kidding of course)

Make it 9pm

[Bobcat.]

PEB has shown confirmed support at 75c. It will be interesting to see if that price holds following any major downturn in the NBI (later this week?).

[RGR367]

If this wasn't such a long thread from beginning to where it is now, I would invest serious time to read it from start to finish. I must say that the discussions were really enlightening and also entertaining :) Sad though that I completely missed or never look at this stock. It would have given more meaning to what I'm learning from you guys just by reading bits and portions of your own forum. All the best!

[Minerbarejet]

Sweet. Caught up on the PEB thread for today. There's about 20 mins or so of my life I'm not getting back.

If I'm not snorting cocaine off a hooker by 10pm then tonight will have been a complete waste of time.

(Just kidding of course)

Make it 9pm
So how did it go then or did you have to settle for a roll your own?:)

[nextbigthing]

So how did it go then or did you have to settle for a roll your own?:)

Still going Miner, the party never stops! They call me the Wolf of Sharetrader*

*Actual reality may differ from that described. No refunds.

[Minerbarejet]

Still going Miner, the party never stops! They call me the Wolf of Sharetrader*

*Actual reality may differ from that described. No refunds.
You can always have another crack at it tonight.:)

[Tsuba]

Sweet. Caught up on the PEB thread for today. There's about 20 mins or so of my life I'm not getting back.

If I'm not snorting cocaine off a hooker by 10pm then tonight will have been a complete waste of time.

(Just kidding of course)

Make it 9pm

Nice to get a smile on here at times. Keep it up.

[psychic]

Bit quiet here today.
Holders may be interested in this link, (and I'm sure there must also be a negative aspect in there somewhere too for those really wanting to see one...)

The US Dept Health and Human Services - AHRQ div (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality)

http://effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov/search-for-guides-reviews-and-reports/?pageAction=displayTopic&topicID=571

These were included in draft questions avail for public comment feb 6-26th this year.

Question 1
For patients with signs or symptoms warranting evaluation for possible bladder cancer what is the diagnostic accuracy of various urinary biomarkers compared with other urinary biomarkers or standard diagnostic methods (cystoscopy, cytology, and imaging)?
Does the diagnostic accuracy differ according to patient characteristics (e.g., age, sex, ethnicity), or according to the nature of the presenting signs or symptoms?

and

Question 7
What are the comparative adverse effects of various tests for diagnosis and post-treatment surveillance of bladder cancer, including urinary biomarkers, cytology, and cystoscopy?

where:
Urinary biomarkers of interest include: bladder tumor-associated antigen (BTA); nuclear matrix protein 22 (NMP22); fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) assay; fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3); Cxbladder™, ImmunoCyt™, cytokeratin fragments (e.g., CYFRA 21-1, TPA, TPS); survivin; telomerase; vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF); metalloproteinases (MMP-2 and MMP-9); Twist homolog 1 (TWIST1) gene; and nidogen-2 (NID2) gene.

(My emphasis on Cxbladder)

Most of the other tests listed I think are the current ones that are apparently inferior to Cxbladder but perhaps someone else can confirm.

But I think this is quite an important step. AHRQ have now put these questions to it's network of Researchers and Clinical teams across the US. Researchers will come back with their findings and AHRQ will advise CMS and Insurers accordingly.

How will Cxbladder stand up?

[Xerof]

How will Cxbladder stand up?

It should piss in :p

Nice research psychic - there are further links on that website that seem to indicate that this survey is nearing the pointy end, although I can find no indication of timelines.

[psychic]

Sorry Black Knat. Those are my words - or, have I presumed too much in this?

[Xerof]

The AUA intends to use this systematic report developed by AHRQ as the basis for evidence-based guidelines. The creation of an evidence report on this topic would allow the AUA to create a clinical practice guideline in a relatively short timeframe as the data collection, extraction and analysis would have already been completed in adherence with the highest standards of systematic review. AUA guidelines are scientifically rigorous and evidence-based, and with a staff of six full-time professionals as well as extensive consultant support, the AUA Guidelines Department is well positioned to develop high-quality guidelines in a timely, efficient and effective manner.

Looks like the survey was instigated by AUA.....

[psychic]

the AUA Guidelines Department is well positioned to develop high-quality guidelines in a timely, efficient and effective manner.

More timely that the Euro Boys eh- They still have an 10 year old article on biomarkers attached to 2014 guidelines.....

[Minerbarejet]

Very good researching psychic. Could you please point us to the part on the website dealing with your highlighted comment - I can't seem to see it. thanks.
Yes good stuff psychic, the part you are looking for BK is just below all the questions and under the Analytical chart.
It has definitely mentioned cxBladder.:)

[psychic]

here is the page with Research Process described.

http://effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov/index.cfm/submit-a-suggestion-for-research/what-is-the-research-process/

Suggest we subscribe to email alerts ......

[Dentie]

Here's something else some may like to read...

http://www.the-leader.com/article/20140625/NEWS/140629777

Seems like DD might be interested in someone talking to the Senator....

[psychic]

Here's something else some may like to read...

http://www.the-leader.com/article/20140625/NEWS/140629777

Seems like DD might be interested in someone talking to the Senator....

Lol what a mess it is becoming. It is as well Cxbladder offers savings or there might be no hope!

The new policy “packages” payments for drugs used for a particular disease or diagnosis – essentially offering a lump-sum payment regardless of the treatment that’s used.
That means doctors and hospitals are motivated to stick with older, cheaper tests and treatments.
“We heard from patients, doctors and hospitals in the district as well as from across the country that the most up-to-date technology was being reimbursed at such low levels that providers were resorting to using treatments more than 20 years old and less effective,” Reed said.

[Minerbarejet]

don,t you mean if you can find it cause in two days it could be 10 pages back.

Any how you raise some good questions that investors deserve/require some clarity on but I am confident vagueness will remain supreme.
Investors will only be told what management want them to know.
No problem Snap, if I can find your posts 150 pages back when you were a raging rampant bull then I shouldnt have too much trouble finding my own regardless of my short term memory loss.:)

[barney]

http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.co.nz/2014/06/good-cxbladder-result-cxbladder.html#!/2014/06/good-cxbladder-result-cxbladder.html

[skid]

Ive been in Montreal for around a week now and have done a bit of brain picking--just basic so far,from the brother in law who works for Bristle Meyer.
He said the diagnostic side of things in the industry is miniscule. And a company like PEB is a single cell ameaba within that .
The other players who are already embedded will fight tooth and nail to protect their turf.
He is in finance but said he will try to have a word with the ''medical'' boys to see if anyone knows anything about PEB.
Those of us backing PEB will have to be VERY patient .
This is not a ''Xero"" type product that will possibly "take off" and be known to the multitudes in a period of time.
Nobody really seems to care about this sector from what I can see so far.
If or when I get more specifics, Ill post.

[skid]

http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.co.nz/2014/06/good-cxbladder-result-cxbladder.html#!/2014/06/good-cxbladder-result-cxbladder.html

Thats great -but the trouble is the ''.co.nz'' at the end of the webpage instead of ''American or US etc."

[Minerbarejet]

certainly was a raging bull on PEB until I started digging further and discovered that the market expectation were 3 -4 years ahead of itself(shares were $1.70) and was assuming the company would be successful.
Further lost my bullishness because I now firmly believe the company(in the last few months) have deliberately become very vague about the progress.
It was not that long ago(during the led up to last capital raising) they seemed to have plenty to crow about.
Also lost my bullishness due to my research clearly indicating that the company had no show of backing management statements that the money received from the last capital raising would see the company through to profitability.
Feel very confident that another capital raising is inevitable and no doubt it will come soon after some positive announcement.


Investor, at the AGM, deserve to be updated on the issue you have raised miner but won't be unless probed by good questions from the floor......... and no I won't be going as my small investment does not justify the trip but I will be listening. There is no doubt the questions will be raised by bulls and bears alike, we are all investors one way or the other.
On the other matter of your being a raging bull back last year, there is very little evidence of you being taken to task over your comments, so a little moderation and consideration while the shoe is on the other foot would probably help new and old posters alike. While we are in admission mode I do find some of your posts interesting even though invariably negative at the moment. They do provide some balance for those eager to learn from this thread.
Cheers
Miner

[Minerbarejet]

Would hardly expect the Canadians to be aware of cxbladder if PEB is not even marketing there:)

Trading halt on market, technical issues:(

[couta1]

Agreed. Its more the lack of awareness in NZ that is raising alarm bells for me...
That lack of awareness seems strange considering the company has been on national TV and in the papers even a lot of the elderly folk in the retirement villages know of the company.

[slack]

Thats great -but the trouble is the ''.co.nz'' at the end of the webpage instead of ''American or US etc."

Blogspot actually redirects to their regional domains, so if you browse to http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.com/ it'll change itself to .co.nz, or to .com.au if you live in Australia.
Not entirely sure where the author is from, but it seems he's not a NZ local at least: https://plus.google.com/118290114237988196206/about

[aGuyCalledBob]

That lack of awareness seems strange considering the company has been on national TV and in the papers even a lot of the elderly folk in the retirement villages know of the company.

After having too many dealings with NZ docs... nothing strange about it in my opinion.
Totally on par with NZ doctoring. As detailed in my last post.
I would hope PEB are not investing too much in NZ. The money would be better off spent in the US

[Minerbarejet]

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
Usually find that the blue cheesy grin signifies a bit of leg pulling or teasing going on and the post is not to be taken too seriously.

[Minerbarejet]

so it is ok to post blatant ramps as long as they include the blue smiley face.... interesting so how do you explain this post from Balance when challenged about where his info was coming from in post 9214......pass...




Sorry nearly forgot:D

[nextbigthing]

Your post#9214 posted a month ago eluded to..........
But according to the recent shareholdings I now find this statement by you Balance as nothing short of pure ramping.
I hope I am wrong and very happy to be so.....otherwise it is very disappointing to see this sort of rubbish on here.

Now now Snapiti that's the sort of talk that will earn you a red card.

Oh no wait, you're fine.

[Minerbarejet]

Seems world war 3 is about to break out.
:scared:

[Schrodinger]

Give me a break! You are the most blatant, deliberate liar on this site.

/popcorn...

[mis chief]

MORE OF THE SAME.

Seems not much has changed here over the last few weeks. And some folk don’t realise that, one way or another, most everything they put on the net is there forever. Even if you delete your post, it may appear in others. Pays to remember that. All this talk of liars and ramping, tut tut.

What I want is proof that Balance is a liar. Now that would be interesting.

Live and learn, folks, live and learn.

Caramel popcorn for me thanks.

Oops, forgot the obligatory :D, ;)

[Minerbarejet]

Meanwhile back in the jungle, the buyers are shifting up a bit and the sellers are retreating a bit.
Wonder whats up?:)

[drswag]

Annual Report 31 March 2014

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/252211

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Okay well it's fair to say that they are using a bit of smoke and mirrors here. Look how their wording has changed...


The Board is comfortable that sufficient fundsare in place to support the next two years of the Company’splanned growth strategy.

No mention of the capital raising generating enough cash to support the company until profitability anymore. Another capital raising in 2 years then folks?


Evaluating haematuria (blood in the urine) in Americanpatients for bladder cancer is a significant market of scale andcould be worth up to US$100 million in gross revenue for ourCompany in five year’s time.

What happened to the 5 year goal? Now it 'could only be worth up to $100mil'? DD is on record saying $100mil was a mid range estimate - looks like that has gone out the window. And 5 years times... they've been mentioning 5 years time for a year now. Should be 4 years time now. Bet next year it'll still be 5.

But wait, they then go on to say this... how confusing.


Our goal of attaining a business with a gross revenue of $100million after five full years of trading remains our target andcontinues to be readily attainable.

And what's happening with Australia and Spain? Talk about epic failures there.

[Schrodinger]

Okay well it's fair to say that they are using a bit of smoke and mirrors here. Look how their wording has changed...



No mention of the capital raising generating enough cash to support the company until profitability anymore. Another capital raising in 2 years then folks?



What happened to the 5 year goal? Now it 'could only be worth up to $100mil'? DD is on record saying $100mil was a mid range estimate - looks like that has gone out the window. And 5 years times... they've been mentioning 5 years time for a year now. Should be 4 years time now. Bet next year it'll still be 5.

But wait, they then go on to say this... how confusing.



And what's happening with Australia and Spain? Talk about epic failures there.

Shifting goal posts. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

[winner69]

So CxBladder sales were $145k - $95k in US

How many tests that

Directors fees were higher than CxBladder sales (just an useless bit of info)

[blackcap]

Just had a quick look at the income statement. Revenue of under $1m????????? And the capitalisation of Peb is $251m. Are people mad?

[Minerbarejet]

I think they sell the test for about US$500 - so less than 200 tests.

That timeline on page 13 looks interesting though. Seems to suggest that there will be significantly more in the current 6 months.Whats even more interesting is it seems to suggest that none of the income for the year from tests in the US came from signed up network providers in the US.
If not, where? Private, urologists who participated in user tests?:)

[Tsuba]

Reasoned debate people or I move beyond deleting posts.

STMOD

They don't know any other way. Hence the sudden deathly silence.

[couta1]

They don't know any other way. Hence the sudden deathly silence.
Perhaps some posters are also feeling a little sheepish after their personal insults(The ones given for no justifiable reason) have been exposed on the various threads and not a bad thing as a little humility goes a long way.

[Minerbarejet]

I suspect you are right miner re private tests.

If the timeline on page 13 is to believed (and I have no prima facie reason to doubt it), then we could be in for a treat in the next HY results.

All digits crossed!
And the more I look at page 13 the more I like it. Its almost getting to a woohoo stage.
IMHO, Noah Fence,:D

Sentiment: Positive
Position: HoldIng
Recommendation: DYOR
Audio: Off

[Tsuba]

yes, I'm starting to share that sentiment!

Good man NG.

PS I just got a greeny from Hancocks. Ye ha.

[Xerof]

I think Snapiti's question was more than reasonable. Perhaps he just needed to phrase it differently? I, too, have asked balance to substantiate his earlier post, and the silence from him/her certainly is deafening.

I don't mean to interrupt or speak on Balances behalf, but I will anyway....

Balance DID answer the question.

He told you how Institutions hold their shares in NZCDC mainly, which is the #1 shareholder, and does not disclose who the underlying shareholders are. He also explained that net movements within the #1 shareholding can heavily disguise significant movement between large holders.

He informed us, in good faith, as far as I am concerned, that there was an interesting name buying. He should not (and will not) name the buyer, as he has been told in confidence.

You either believe him or you don't, but shrilling on and on and name calling will not get you anywhere.

I posted recently on my interpretation of whats been happening on the register, with a conclusion that entities within #1 were net buyers from the reef fish outside the top 100. You can take that or leave it as well, I don't care, just trying to be informative for those who struggle with the mechanics of registries.

You will only ever hear of significant shifts in holdings if they are over 5%, and shift 1%, a holding breeches the 5% threshold, or buys/sells are made by Directors/officers of the Company.

Here's the post, 19 June


Someone just slipped a new top 100 PEB shareholder list under my doormat - must have the wrong address......

It seems from reading the changes to the top 100 over recent months, that it is indeed short term reef fish who have been selling out. Only ONE collective group (who recently went under 5%, I'll let you work that one out) has continued to sell, and the vast majority of these sells have gone into the #1 pot (so I can't tell who the buyer is but it is institutional). virtually all the top 50 holders are unchanged, with minor shifts up and down from a couple of dodgy broker custodians. Another 3 new individual entrants have come into the top 100 over the last few weeks, I guess at around current levels. encouraging.

My general conclusion is therefore that current levels are proving to be where 'the market' sees fair value, as the volumes are pretty abysmal and the price is relatively steady.

[robbo24]

PEB signing off Deeds of Indemnity?

What kind of letter did you send to DD NewGuy?!?!

Moosie don't start banging the drum until you read my email. Lol.

[robbo24]

Covering the specifics for negligence, financial limits, moose attack and Snappy flaming.

Righto, gotcha ;)

A litigious North American such as yourself would surely understand the need for professional indemnity insurance.

[Balance]

I think Snapiti's question was more than reasonable. Perhaps he just needed to phrase it differently? I, too, have asked balance to substantiate his earlier post, and the silence from him/her certainly is deafening.

You have a lot to learn, NewGuy and this forum is very useful if you read and interpret some of the postings.

As W69 commented, some of us will and are happy to share information here but there are circumstances which will hamper the verification of information posted.

If anyone of us posted false & misleading information to ramp up a share, and then sold out - that to me is a cardinal sin and an unforgivable act.

I would go so far as to say a complaint to the NZX or FMA is in order.

You will work out in your own time who are the rampers. Clue - those who accuse others of ramping are typically, in my experience and observation, rampers.

Enough said.

[nextbigthing]

So can someone with more understanding of the legal world than I please explain what these mean and whether we need to be concerned?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/252236

I'm assuming it's a butt covering exercise for if you had said some things which might later turn out to be slightly different to the truth and you had received an email from someone named 'freshdude', which would be bad.

Consequentlargeitem.

[winner69]

So can someone with more understanding of the legal world than I please explain what these mean and whether we need to be concerned?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/252236

I'm assuming it's a butt covering exercise for if you had said some things which might later turn out to be slightly different to the truth and you had received an email from someone named 'freshdude', which would be bad.

Consequentlargeitem.

Pretty common practice. Surprised they not already in place

[Xerof]

impending humungous object

do not be concerned for there is nothing to be concerned about. most companies provide this type of cover for directors

[nextbigthing]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/196223.pdf

The review states they have (all approx figures) $20m cash and that they spent $10m last year. It also states they anticipate this cash lasting two years, therefore continuing to use $10m a year (with any sales revenue increase covering any expenditure increase to keep it simple, therefore say $10m fixed costs PA).

Say they sell for $500 and have a contribution to fixed costs of $400 (call it $NZ, again to keep it simple).

$10m / $400 = 25000 tests PA to become self sustaining (nil profit).

Doable?

Well say in two years they can woo 100 Urologists. 25000/100 is 250 tests per Urologist PA. That's about one per working day for each Urologist averaged over the period.

Straight from the review....

"The Board is comfortable that sufficient funds are in place to support the next two years of the Company’s planned growth strategy"

"Our goal of attaining a business with a gross revenue of $100 million after five full years of trading remains our target and continues to be readily attainable"

I had the pleasure of a 15 minute chat with DD at the airport late last year. He told me '2014 will be a very big year for PEB, make or break'. Somehow I don't think he was lying :)

NBT

(ps cheers firstplacesexualmanoeuver and egnahcxeycnerruc for answering the law question)

[Carpenterjoe]

Guys I hate to bring it up again,

I know My accounting knowledge sucks,

But on page thirteen that little picture implies that sales/revenue is recognised on reimbursement, not when the test has been processed.

Wouldn't they have to account for the test being carried out in some way? And therefore monies owed?
Or am looking at it far to literally?

Looking forward to being educated.

[bowser]

Note (L) discusses their recognition criteria for revenue. "Operating revenues represent the revenue from the sale of goods that is recognised when a group entity sells a product to the customer"