PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Xerof]

Not an accountant either, but here's how I see it.

From the notes to accounts:

(l) Revenue RecognitionRevenue is measured at the fair value of the consideration received or receivable. Amounts disclosed as revenue are net of returns, trade allowances, rebates and amounts collected on behalf of third parties.
The Group recognises revenue when the amount of revenue can be reliably measured, it is probable that future economic benefits will flow to the entity and specific criteria have been met for each of the Group’s activities as described below.
Operating revenues represent the revenue from the sale of goods that is recognised when a group entity sells a product to the customer.

all that is pretty standard stuff, so revenue recognised when a sale is made, not when the cash is received.

BUT

page 13 timeline is telling you that US sales commenced in APRIL 14, with cash being received in May, so a 30 day process period by Fedmed (thats quite good)

This is a significant clue on the timing of the start-up of US sales, as miner woohooed about earlier, and should be seen as encouraging. Sales commenced in earnest AFTER balance date. How much is 'earnest' is the question of course

seems to me, quite a bit of effort has been put into explaining the process, which has been severely criticised and misunderstood on this thread. I know peb read our histrionics, so good on management for attempting to provide some detail

[Carpenterjoe]

Note (L) discusses their recognition criteria for revenue. "Operating revenues represent the revenue from the sale of goods that is recognised when a group entity sells a product to the customer"

Ok, yip, that's my point.

The "sale" occurs at reimbursement not once the test occurs?

So there is a long period after the test is done that revenue is recognised?

Seems like revenue will always be behind when the test is executed,

Is my understanding correct?

[bowser]

No - the sale occurs when the test is done, that is when revenue is recognised. And as Xerof noted about page 13, it seems to take one month to receive the cash.

[Carpenterjoe]

No - the sale occurs when the test is done, that is when revenue is recognised. And as Xerof noted about page 13, it seems to take one month to receive the cash.

Thanks, its been a long few weeks.

Brain is on melt down

[baller18]

Not an accountant either, but here's how I see it.

From the notes to accounts:


all that is pretty standard stuff, so revenue recognised when a sale is made, not when the cash is received.

BUT

page 13 timeline is telling you that US sales commenced in APRIL 14, with cash being received in May, so a 30 day process period by Fedmed (thats quite good)

This is a significant clue on the timing of the start-up of US sales, as miner woohooed about earlier, and should be seen as encouraging. Sales commenced in earnest AFTER balance date. How much is 'earnest' is the question of course

seems to me, quite a bit of effort has been put into explaining the process, which has been severely criticised and misunderstood on this thread. I know peb read our histrionics, so good on management for attempting to provide some detail

Not an accountant or an english teacher.

I seem a bit lost why everyone is excited about US sales commenced in april? I thought first us sales were achieved last year in oct....

If sales occurs when the test is done, then how come last oct PEB announced they achieved their first sales in the states? In this report PEB indicates revenue started in April when the test was carried out and recognition of revenue was then recorded.

.... lost....

[Carpenterjoe]

Ok, yip, that's my point.

The "sale" occurs at reimbursement not once the test occurs?

So there is a long period after the test is done that revenue is recognised?

Seems like revenue will always be behind when the test is executed,

Is my understanding correct?


Wow, what a massive brain fart. I completely miss read that chart, the carpenter accepts the red card and heads for the showers!

[nextbigthing]

Baller,

My understanding is April was the first sale taken care of by the National Provider Network FedMed. The first commercial U.S. sale must have been paid privately etc (ie some way other than an NPN network).

Meaning the NPN sales are just starting to wind up - hopefully!

Look at the illustration on page 13 of the report
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/196222.pdf
It talks about NPN's.

NBT

[Carpenterjoe]

Baller,

My understanding is April was the first sale taken care of by the National Provider Network FedMed. The first commercial U.S. sale must have been paid privately etc (ie some way other than an NPN network).

Meaning the NPN sales are just starting to wind up - hopefully!

NBT

Thanks Nbt, I hadn't clicked on to that.

[andrewm]

So..


-The 200 or so US tests didn't represent poor take-up by providers but no take-up by providers possibly due to typical beauracratic processes after signing deals, this can be interpreted as a positive and we will almost certainly have a huge % increase in tests this year but how many sales is enough to ensure confidence in the 100 million target?
Well we should be expecting 10k sales in the next report, 36k after that, 91k, then 182k then 228k.
These were the numbers from the 2011 capital raising, this doesnt seem unreasonable.
Some more signings are due anytime now - Pacific Edge indicated last June with the likes of Kaiser Permanente and Intermountain and anticipated it would take about a year.

However

-The target has been restated as 'could be' and 'upto' and '5 full trading years' which reflects the slower start off the bat and is a bit of shifting the goalposts
- Oryzon is upto bugger all in Spain, I believe they are waiting on CE mark registration. All I could find indicated that they had been waiting well over a year for this and with the lack of commentary around this I wont factor in any Spanish tests in the coming year but would love to be surprised by a few hundred or a thousand.

[robbo24]

So can someone with more understanding of the legal world than I please explain what these mean and whether we need to be concerned?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/252236

I'm assuming it's a butt covering exercise for if you had said some things which might later turn out to be slightly different to the truth and you had received an email from someone named 'freshdude', which would be bad.

Consequentlargeitem.

It's no more complicated than this: http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1993/0105/latest/DLM320806.html

PEB may be saving some money (for itself, or for the pockets of its own directors) by being more specific about its obligations to directors (or employees who are directors of its subsidiaries) to show professional indemnity insurers the financial risk they face.

It's yawnworthy because the reasonable underwriter would not insure PEB if they disclosed some massive secret liability after the fact - it's too late to get insurance once the deed has already been done.

Alternatively, and this too is yawnworthy, THE DIRECTORS HAVE SCREWED UP AND THE ONLY WAY TO SAVE THEM FROM BANKRUPTCY IS TO THROW REMAINING CASH AT BAILING THEM OUT OF LIABILITY!! AHHH~~~!!!

Lol. (read: sarcasm in that last para).

[robbo24]

PS - clauses 26.1-26.6 of the constitution: http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/14926C6363F13C8CDC6D2363EBFDF30E

Let your imagination and conspiracy theories run wild.

I'll be right here to make fun of you.

[Snow Leopard]

Good to see that they have managed to keep the copier expenses under $12,000 again.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Tsuba]

Good to see that they have managed to keep the copier expenses under $12,000 again.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

A restuarant I worked in spent $7000 in one year on parsley. Another pointless fact for all to read.

[Minerbarejet]

A restuarant I worked in spent $7000 in one year on parsley. Another pointless fact for all to read. Sounds like an expensive place. Wouldnt do for someone a bit parsleymonious although they could garnishee your wages I suppose:)

[winner69]

pretty weird that a publicly listed company with offshore branches didn't have this in place years ago, though, right? Amateur stuff.

Exactly my thoughts NewGuy

Amateur stuff ...maybe a bit harsh but a reflection on governance practices if nothing else

[Dentie]

pretty weird that a publicly listed company with offshore branches didn't have this in place years ago, though, right? Amateur stuff.

Do you ever stop grizzling NG? Sounds like you need to stand at the AGM....can you give us some credentials of your own... just asking?

[robbo24]

pretty weird that a publicly listed company with offshore branches didn't have this in place years ago, though, right? Amateur stuff.

Read cl 26 of the constitution. It's always been there.

Like I said, they may have just made some changes.

I think you've made a conceptual leap without basis. You're still a good guy though.

[robbo24]

Exactly my thoughts NewGuy

Amateur stuff ...maybe a bit harsh but a reflection on governance practices if nothing else

Read the damn constitution and stop making up this amateur malarkey.

[robbo24]

You are right. I haven't read it - YAWNFEST - but thought my inference was reasonable given what many others had posted.

Please quote the messages quoted by others, interested to see how you arrived at the inference

[longy]

Actually, I was the first one yesterday to point out the significance of the timeline on page 13 and even noted that my sentiment was swinging up a little.

I already run a highly successful consulting business and have a young family, so certainly won't be running for PEB. However, if you insist:

Education
-BCom (1st-class honours) in Economics.
-GPA = 96% (top 1% of all economic graduates in the world)
-Post graduate scholarship in economics
-Senior prize in economics
-etc etc

Experience
-20 years commercial experience, 15 years as an entrepreneur
-Trusted advisor to the largest property development companies in New Zealand
-Regularly called as an expert witness for the most challenging cases before a range of courts, and boards of inquiry
-Former MD of a medical technology organisations
-etc

Happy?

Impressive!

[Dentie]

Was concerned PEB was missing out on possible tests in Ozzie ... it was sickening to see how Todd Carney is going to test himself - if the need arises....

I think I would prefer CxBladder!

[J R Ewing]

Carney and Baldrick would seem to be soul mates.

[geo]

Actually, I was the first one yesterday to point out the significance of the timeline on page 13 and even noted that my sentiment was swinging up a little.

I already run a highly successful consulting business and have a young family, so certainly won't be running for PEB. However, if you insist:

Education
-BCom (1st-class honours) in Economics.
-GPA = 96% (top 1% of all economic graduates in the world)
-Post graduate scholarship in economics
-Senior prize in economics
-etc etc

Experience
-20 years commercial experience, 15 years as an entrepreneur
-Trusted advisor to the largest property development companies in New Zealand
-Regularly called as an expert witness for the most challenging cases before a range of courts, and boards of inquiry
-Former MD of a medical technology organisations
-etc

Happy?

You left out very savvy stock investor. One of your many posts nay only got $125k in this, And this being a very speculative buy WOW impressive.

[youngatheart]

God, if peopleeonly knew I did a PGDip in Museum Studies, did some psych courses and was a damn Archivist for a living they wouldn't listen to me...

Oh crap, did I say that out loud...?

Not too soon for a career change there Moosie :0) And that psych bit would be most useful for share trading me thinks...

[barney]

Actually, I was the first one yesterday to point out the significance of the timeline on page 13 and even noted that my sentiment was swinging up a little.

I already run a highly successful consulting business and have a young family, so certainly won't be running for PEB. However, if you insist:

Education
-BCom (1st-class honours) in Economics.
-GPA = 96% (top 1% of all economic graduates in the world)
-Post graduate scholarship in economics
-Senior prize in economics
-etc etc

Experience
-20 years commercial experience, 15 years as an entrepreneur
-Trusted advisor to the largest property development companies in New Zealand
-Regularly called as an expert witness for the most challenging cases before a range of courts, and boards of inquiry
-Former MD of a medical technology organisations
-etc

Happy?

With that kind of background, I'm left wondering why you would have such a lack of temperament as to let yourself send off an email rant to the PEB CEO which, in your words, bordered on blackmail ?

[couta1]

I wanted to give you a negative rep, but there was only an option for positive, so I ran with that.
Another reason why the whole system should have been abolished now we have positives that are actually negative.

[couta1]

I already admitted that it was an unfortunate email. Emotions ran wild, and I'm not proud of it. Already stated that on here clearly. Thanks.
At least your humble enough to admit when you've made a mistake others take note:cool:

[barleeni]

Just had a bit of a count back, 1 or 2 of the previous 30 posts are on topic. Well done guys...... thanks for keeping my day interesting. On topic however, today looks like its another slide across the board for tech stocks. Is there any light at the end of the tunnel?

[robbo24]

A family friend of ours visited a wellington urologist. The urologist knew of cxbladder very well. However, unfortunately the particular family friend isn't being tested for bladder cancer so still requires a camera up the codge.

[Minerbarejet]

A family friend of ours visited a wellington urologist. The urologist knew of cxbladder very well. However, unfortunately the particular family friend isn't being tested for bladder cancer so still requires a camera up the codge.Sorry to hear about the friend. Word seems to be getting out there with cxbladder. Thanks for letting us know.

[robbo24]

Hancocks;489623]I don't seem to recall any reference to the term 'codge' in the Cxbladder documentation; is this to do with the new products perhaps?


codge is a purely technical term, I can assure you.

Sorry I should use technical terms, "dong."

See page 7 of the cxbladder informational fact sheet dated 2013.

[Minerbarejet]

Sorry I should use technical terms, "dong."

See page 7 of the cxbladder informational fact sheet dated 2013.
Was that Big Ben?

[Xerof]

Perhaps they are opening an office in Vietnam?

[robbo24]

The Old Fella.

No, not you Minerbarejet.

[barney]

I already admitted that it was an unfortunate email. Emotions ran wild, and I'm not proud of it. Already stated that on here clearly. Thanks.

Fair enough.

I agree with your point about the timeline in the annual report. It partly explains the long lead in time until we see some significant revenue generation.

[Minerbarejet]

Fair enough.

I agree with your point about the timeline in the annual report. It partly explains the long lead in time until we see some significant revenue generation.
Thats true and as there are now no sales from signed up providers to the end of March does anyone have the faintest idea where half a million bucks in revenue came from then?
:)
Presumably we have to reset the expotential growth curve as well.
No wonder it was a bit flat - there wasnt any contribution from the providers.

[winner69]

Thats true and as there are now no sales from signed up providers to the end of March does anyone have the faintest idea where half a million bucks in revenue came from then?
:)
Presumably we have to reset the expotential growth curve as well.
No wonder it was a bit flat - there wasnt any contribution from the providers.

Its all in the annual report along with how much the copier cost

OPERATING REVENUE
Cxbladder Sales 145,195
Cxbladder Research Rebate 87,001
Grant Received 291,187
Interest Earned 315,275
Total Operating Revenue 838,658

Of the cXBladder Sales $94,823 was in the US rest out of NZ

[winner69]

PEB long term vision .... To be so successful that they can do their financial statements in $000

[Minerbarejet]

Its all in the annual report along with how much the copier cost

OPERATING REVENUE
Cxbladder Sales 145,195
Cxbladder Research Rebate 87,001
Grant Received 291,187
Interest Earned 315,275
Total Operating Revenue 838,658

Of the cXBladder Sales $94,823 was in the US rest out of NZThanks for that Winner, probably what I should have said was where did the US contribution to the half million odd come from if it wasnt providers.
Sorry should have been clearer.:blush:

[psychic]

Thanks for that Winner, probably what I should have said was where did the US contribution to the half million odd come from if it wasnt providers.
Sorry should have been clearer.:blush:

Hi Miner

Just catching up on thread tonight , apologies if I misunderstand your question..

PEB racked up it's first US commercial sale in Oct 2013. $94k worth of sales in say six months via channels outside of the three major (now four) National Provider Networks is not out of the question is it?

I have been banging on in this forum saying that without CMS or Private Insurance coverage, they cannot be making sales. Well, I was wrong. I'm told that they will usually pay out on claims until volume picks up, and then they will seek a contractual relationship.

I was also wrong about the significance of that AHRT discussion document I posted recently. I'm told that "right now the AHRT doesn’t influence our reimbursement program in the US."

Source DD

[Leftfield]

Revealing article on USA Govt Drug purchasing…. perhaps they are be looking at pharmacy with envy? Not strictly related to PEB… but interesting.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-01/the-crazy-way-the-government-buys-billions-of-dollars-of-drugs#r=hp-ls

[barney]

And the more I look at page 13 the more I like it. Its almost getting to a woohoo stage.
IMHO, Noah Fence,:D

Sentiment: Positive
Position: HoldIng
Recommendation: DYOR
Audio: Off

Interestingly, the timeline also coincides with PEDUSA advertising for two more clinical lab staff.

[MAC]

I’ve only just got to the report, seems satisfyingly informative,

“We are aware of the need to inform shareholders about our business, and during the year, we focused on providing as much information as possible on the regulatory, reimbursement and adoption drivers for novel, medical devices in both New Zealand and the US.”

Given there’s been very little change in the top 100 holders one would presume the larger shareholders are routinely being ‘informed’ by Pacific Edge, are holding, and are satisfied.

“This will be a significant and on-going focus for the Company. We expect to see a number of research papers produced by local and international analysts to fill some of this knowledge gap during the coming year.”

I hope having now been teased with the prospect of these analyst reports that they are made public.

Prospectively one of these is very possibly the awaited Edison report. The market I suspect will respond positively to these reports even if they just serve to summarise the market potential and provide a DCF valuation.

Good to see the first NPN sales coming through which kicks off the 45% part of the growth curve now. We should anticipate a similar seven month lead in for CMS sales kick off.

From last year’s AGM we know that the market comprises;

50% Government (CMS, VA)
45% Private Insurance (NPN insurers, Kaiser Permanente, Intermountain etc)
5% Institutional OSHA

All on track for US$100M gross rev in five years and securing a humble 10% share of the market at that time.

[psychic]

And your point is?

My point?

-Up until now I had assumed that unless Cxbladder was covered by Insurance (CMS or Private) , it would not sell.

-PEB has not announced Insurance coverage (eg Kaiser, Cigna, Blue Shield etc). I have previously posted the BlueShield Policy and Cxbladder is mentioned but not yet approved - next review Nov

- What they have announced is deals with four National Provider Networks. These NPN's are not Insurers. They simply get a whole bunch of suppliers together (from Hospitals, doctors and the likes of PEB) , screw down the price . and offer the network to Insurers. They handle the claim and reimbursement yes , but do not approve the claim if outside of the Insurers Policy terms

- The Insurers and Vets review coverage (ie which tests are covered) from time to time and are influenced my CMS, which in turn is influenced by the likes of AHRT. This is why I was excited about the AHRQ enquiry into biomarkers for BC

- P13 of the Annual report (the blue box you are excited about) shows reimbursement from private Insurer from fedmed sale taking place May 14. (and while on this point, I'm encouraged by your renewed optimism but all it really demonstrates is that it took 7 months for Fedmed to sell a cxbladder test. Why?)

So that was my understanding on where PEB was at at. And because no one had responded to my posts with a different perspective of how it all might reasonably work, I assumed Miner was asking the question as well. What Insurance and who paid?

I was then told that Insurers usually pay claims until volume picks up, as posted. It makes no sense to me but it is what it is and explains the US sales Miner was questioning.

[Bobcat.]

PEB has found support at 69c then 75c and more recently 77c. It's however still in a wedge pattern with lower highs at 93c, 88c and 82c. A bullish breakout will be confirmed if and only if these tops are broken.

Right now, even though the NBT was up over 2% overnight, PEB looks to be struggling to get through 80c (a new lower high?).

IMO: If and when it trades at 83c, it's a buy.
Alternatively, if and when it drops to test this year's bottom around 70c, it's a buy.
Meanwhile, I'm staying out.

Fundamentals are important sure, but it's technical analysis that confirms the impact that those fundamentals are having on the market price, and at the end of the day it's sp momentum that matters.

[Tsuba]

PEB has found support at 69c then 75c and more recently 77c. It's however still in a wedge pattern with lower highs at 93c, 88c and 82c. A bullish breakout will be confirmed if and only if these tops are broken.

Right now, even though the NBT was up over 2% overnight, PEB looks to be struggling to get through 80c (a new lower high?).

IMO: If and when it trades at 83c, it's a buy.
Alternatively, if and when it drops to test this year's bottom around 70c, it's a buy.
Meanwhile, I'm staying out.

Fundamentals are important sure, but it's technical analysis that confirms the impact that those fundamentals are having on the market price, and at the end of the day it's sp momentum that matters.

Your posts bore the hell out of me sorry.

[Bobcat.]

Your posts bore the hell out of me sorry.

Then don't read them, Tsuba. I don't post for your entertainment.

Believe it or not, some people are more interested than you are in what a stock's charts are telling us. I like to research fundamentals, but time my trades based on technicals. What's your preferred approach?

BC

[Joshuatree]

Yeah pretty negative Tsuba lets keep the channels open; i for one learn a lot re T/A etc from bobcat (thanks) and others; it expands my investment universe.

[Xerof]

"Your posts enlighten the hell out of me, thanks"

- Fixed by Moose

Off-topic, but in a similar vein, I heard David Shearer trying to blame the gummint over this diplomat immunity thingy on the radio this morning - he was meaning to say 'when the proverbial hits the fan', instead he stumbled on his words, as is usual for him, and came out with 'when the sh1t hits the proverbial'

[Tsuba]

Point taken. Sorry about that.

[barleeni]

Your posts bore the hell out of me sorry.

I think if you were looking for entertainment you should google cats on the YouTube page. Your obviously in the wrong place here Tsuba.

[Joshuatree]

Im guessing Tsuba was just being honest re being a fundamental investor and just not int in T/A, not being personal but a little.\ clumsy in his post

[baller18]

Please keep posting your posts bobcat! Thanks in advance!
Learning to be a RA investor!

[Tsuba]

Im guessing Tsuba was just being honest re being a fundamental investor and just not int in T/A, not being personal but a little.\ clumsy in his post

Yep that about sums it up thanks.

[nextbigthing]

Please keep posting your posts bobcat! Thanks in advance!

Not only that Bobcat, thanks for having the balls to tell us what your plan is before you trade, instead of posting a chart after the fact and claiming to be a mind reader. That deserves respect!

[nextbigthing]

What happened to this thread BTW? It appears to have gotten many pages shorter. Did a few people ask to be deleted after the recent privacy breach?

[Minerbarejet]

Been working on that at times today, dont know whos gone but some one took a lot of posts with them
Maybe STMOD had a cleanout.

Hands up all those that arent here anymore.:)

[aGuyCalledBob]

What happened to this thread BTW? It appears to have gotten many pages shorter. Did a few people ask to be deleted after the recent privacy breach?


Reasoned debate people or I move beyond deleting posts.

STMOD

things were getting out of hand...

[tzbang]

The Xro thread seemed to have a bunch of latest pages locked down as well

[MAC]

I’ve been reading back through the thread, it astonishes me that some can make 10 or even 20 meaningless posts in one day. Perhaps they were neglected as children, or perhaps their office colleagues run like hell when they see them coming, it is a matter of genuine sadness though that some feel that they must spend eight hours a day seeking attention on the internet.

Anyway, in case there is anyone still willing to wade through a knocker infested swamp of dribble to share info :)

Pacific Edge have been telling us consistently since last year that the five year goal is to be quantified in forward trading years.

The goal posts have not been moved, a nice conspiracy theory though for knockers without a cause, shame they don’t require facts in making one.

This from October when they signed up FedMed and made their first US sale;

“Pacific Edge remains confident of reaching its target of revenues of $100 million from Cxbladder sales in the USA within five trading years”

http://www.cxbladder.com/news/pacific-edge-agreement-with-national-provider-network-fedmed-gives-40-million-americans-access-to-cxbladder/

[robbo24]

Type cxbladder into Google Scholar, Google Books and Scribd.com there is some interesting things.

Looks to me like the ticket is VALIDATION VALIDATION VALIDATION.

[moadoc]

I’ve been reading back through the thread, it astonishes me that some can make 10 or even 20 meaningless posts in one day. Perhaps they were neglected as children, or perhaps their office colleagues run like hell when they see them coming, it is a matter of genuine sadness though that some feel that they must spend eight hours a day seeking attention on the internet.

Anyway, in case there is anyone still willing to wade through a knocker infested swamp of dribble to share info :)

Pacific Edge have been telling us consistently since last year that the five year goal is to be quantified in forward trading years.

The goal posts have not been moved, a nice conspiracy theory though for knockers without a cause, shame they don’t require facts in making one.

This from October when they signed up FedMed and made their first US sale;

“Pacific Edge remains confident of reaching its target of revenues of $100 million from Cxbladder sales in the USA within five trading years”

http://www.cxbladder.com/news/pacific-edge-agreement-with-national-provider-network-fedmed-gives-40-million-americans-access-to-cxbladder/

Thank you Mac for some positivity that I imagine many of us feel but have been too intimidated to reply. This is my first posting, but I have been following this thread for a very long time. The wheels of PEB are still rolling forward. Sure there is a slight wobble in them, but as momentum builds the wobble will clear and those selling down now will regret their decisions long term. Of course this is just my humble opinion. I have no doubt the American market will be a hard nut to crack, but logically speaking taking into account the product, the future products and the determination of management to see through their 5 year plan, there is no doubt in my mind that PEB will succeed to secure 10% of the market. There is no justification for the current share price and if I had more available funds I would be snapping up some more shares for sure. I fully understand the position of short term holders out to make a quick buck. PEB is a great trading stock. I am in it for the long haul, and no, I have not lost any money yet as I was in a number of years ago. The next 12 months will be very interesting to say the least.

[psychic]

Welcome moadoc!

This extract from

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24140246

The most promising new biomarker and the closest to
clinical translation is the uRNA2 assay (Cxbladder; Pacific
Edge, New Zealand).

Patience eh

[Slam dunk]

Hi guys,

Taken me a while to digest the FY report. Am I right in saying the following though?

The full year report shows it took 6 months from when the Fed Med agreement was signed (Oct '13) to when the first sale came from FedMed (Apr'14). The reporting period ended in Mar'14 so the reported sales didn't include any FedMed sales. These should start to be included in the next half year report.

The other network agreements were signed as follows: ACPN Dec’13, Stratos Jan’13, Multiplan April’14. So if it takes 6 months for sales to come on from them as well then first sales from each might come in: ACPN Jun’14, Stratos July’14, Multiplan Oct’14. Since the half yearly report is for the period that ends in Sept'14, it might be reasonable to expect to see sales from all the networks above excluding Multiplan in the next half year report.

Do others agree?

[psychic]

Not sure if I understand just why there should necessarily be this long lead time SD ...? One could equally argue that it took fedmed that long just to clock up a sale? Just trying to see this from all angles.
Can you check PM please, cheers

[Snow Leopard]

Hi guys,

Taken me a while to digest the FY report. Am I right in saying the following though?

The full year report shows it took 6 months from when the Fed Med agreement was signed (Oct '13) to when the first sale came from FedMed (Apr'14). The reporting period ended in Mar'14 so the reported sales didn't include any FedMed sales. These should start to be included in the next half year report.

The other network agreements were signed as follows: ACPN Dec’13, Stratos Jan’13, Multiplan April’14. So if it takes 6 months for sales to come on from them as well then first sales from each might come in: ACPN Jun’14, Stratos July’14, Multiplan Oct’14. Since the half yearly report is for the period that ends in Sept'14, it might be reasonable to expect to see sales from all the networks above excluding Multiplan in the next half year report.

Do others agree?

Yes. The FedMed sale (and they only mention one sale!) was outside of the reporting period and thus not included in the Full Year Accounts and yes that and all other sales to Sep 14 should be in the next Half Year.

First sale (or even sales) from other agreements may be quicker or slower. You would hope quicker.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Slam dunk]

Not sure if I understand just why there should necessarily be this long lead time SD ...? One could equally argue that it took fedmed that long just to clock up a sale? Just trying to see this from all angles.
Can you check PM please, cheers

For those attending the AGM - please ask DD to explain the lead time for sales from FedMed? And therefor can this be construed as a positive for the half year reporting to come, or a cause for concern?

[Slam dunk]

Yes. The FedMed sale (and they only mention one sale!) was outside of the reporting period and thus not included in the Full Year Accounts and yes that and all other sales to Sep 14 should be in the next Half Year.

First sale (or even sales) from other agreements may be quicker or slower. You would hope quicker.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT. I guess diagrams like those on pg 13 of the report are trying to depict points in time and therefore it's logical to include the point at which the first sale was made (vs sales). By indicating when the first sale was made, it doesn't exclude the possibility that multiple sales have been made.

[robbo24]

Tiggy,

You consider that a "sale" equates to one cxbladder test, am I right?

Would FedMed or PEB really bother processing one stupid test in this way? Surely a sale can refer to numerous tests?

If not, why not?


Yes. The FedMed sale (and they only mention one sale!) was outside of the reporting period and thus not included in the Full Year Accounts and yes that and all other sales to Sep 14 should be in the next Half Year.
Q
First sale (or even sales) from other agreements may be quicker or slower. You would hope quicker.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[barney]

Welcome moadoc!

This extract from

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24140246

The most promising new biomarker and the closest to
clinical translation is the uRNA2 assay (Cxbladder; Pacific
Edge, New Zealand).

Patience eh

Thanks psychic. Very interesting.

I recall reading an article about two years ago where Parry Guilford mentioned that they were working on identifing a single biomarker to be used in a bladder cancer test. Not sure how far they have progressed with this, but it would something if they could develope such a test.

[MAC]

Hi guys,

Taken me a while to digest the FY report. Am I right in saying the following though?

The full year report shows it took 6 months from when the Fed Med agreement was signed (Oct '13) to when the first sale came from FedMed (Apr'14). The reporting period ended in Mar'14 so the reported sales didn't include any FedMed sales. These should start to be included in the next half year report.

The other network agreements were signed as follows: ACPN Dec’13, Stratos Jan’13, Multiplan April’14. So if it takes 6 months for sales to come on from them as well then first sales from each might come in: ACPN Jun’14, Stratos July’14, Multiplan Oct’14. Since the half yearly report is for the period that ends in Sept'14, it might be reasonable to expect to see sales from all the networks above excluding Multiplan in the next half year report.

Do others agree?

Six months probably seems ok Slam Dunk, if one imagines the process goes something along these lines;

1. FedMed issue some sort of flyer to their 1,000 or so associated insurance and medical scheme associates.
2. Said insurer(s) medical staff require time to internally assess pertinent literature and clinical studies.
3. Insurer(s) commercial staff then require time to review and recommend to management.
4. Wait for next insurer(s) review board and seek prepay approval status.
5. Insurer(s) need then to load Cxbladder into their billing and accounting software.
6. Time for word to get out to urologists that their FedMed patients can now claim
7. First contracted claim made through FedMed

One would hope that at some point, with enough NPN's signed up, that urologists will feel free to use Cxbladder without a specific need to worry about which patients can claim.

[Snow Leopard]

Tiggy,

You consider that a "sale" equates to one cxbladder test, am I right?

Would FedMed or PEB really bother processing one stupid test in this way? Surely a sale can refer to numerous tests?

If not, why not?

1/ Do not call me Tiggy.

2/ No.

3a/ I do not consider the test 'stupid'.
3b/ Ask PEB what they mean by sale and whether there is a minimum number of tests in a sale.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Tsuba]

Since I am a cat lover you can call me Tiggy any time you like Robbo. ;)

[Bobcat.]

Previous support at 77c is broken and 75c is looking very weak. It would be bullish if it bounces twice off 75 and runs higher through 82c but that doesn't look to be the case. If not, I'm anticipating a double bottom at 69/70c, and have a bid sitting there ready and waiting (with a stop loss at 67c).

Stock prices more often than not rise prior to an AGM - the 21st of August is 7 weeks away - and so we will probably see some sort of rebound later this month.

[psychic]

Thanks again psychic further good research. Do you know what this statement is referring to?

Clinical trials testing the performance of this test in the surveillance setting are currently ongoing. This assay is current awaiting Food and Drug Administration approval pending results from large multicenter validation studies.

Thanks in advance.

Well spotted BK. No, not aware of either. Anyone else?

[Minerbarejet]

To add further grist to the mill, the p 13 diagram is only an example to show what the lead time was in one example. It was not necessarily the first test or batch of tests but the first that was completed and paid for via Fedmed. The next batch of tests payments could have arrived the very next day, Stratose could have had a test or batch of tests done but not paid for but arrived the next day, there are all sorts of possibilities but I dont think we will find out much detail on this.
After all if you were selling truckloads of coal I dont think the shareholders would be particularly interested in who bought them, how many truckloads each. There would be more interest in the total accumulation signifying success, disappointment or mediocrity.
IMHO, Noah Fence,:D

[skid]

Previous support at 77c is broken and 75c is looking very weak. It would be bullish if it bounces twice off 75 and runs higher through 82c but that doesn't look to be the case. If not, I'm anticipating a double bottom at 69/70c, and have a bid sitting there ready and waiting (with a stop loss at 67c).

Stock prices more often than not rise prior to an AGM - the 21st of August is 7 weeks away - and so we will probably see some sort of rebound later this month.


sounds interesting BC--Am I right in assuming that you would sell just before the AGM?

[nextbigthing]

sounds interesting BC--Am I right in assuming that you would sell just before the AGM?

Mrs Kid, baby, it's 3 in the morning. Turn that silly thing off and come back to bed.

[Tsuba]

Hancocks - you could at least point out what you perceive to be the issues, rather than to issue such a vague response. I too would be keen to hear what you think in more detail, so please go ahead :)

That was quite a long post so I would assume Hancocks will be putting pen to paper when he has time.

[Trader101]

Found this on the Web and thought I would share it:
The American Cancer Society's estimate for bladder cancer in the United States for 2014 are: about 74,690 new cases and 15,580 deaths from bladder cancer. Bladder cancer is more common among men than women and more common among whites than blacks. The chance of a man having this cancer during his lifetime is about 1 in 26. For women, it is about 1 in 90. Risk factors (http://www.cancer.org/ssLINK/bladder-cancer-overview-risk-factors) (such as smoking) can affect these chances.This is a cancer mainly of older people. About 9 out of 10 people with this cancer are over the age of 55. The average age when the cancer is found is 73.

[Tsuba]

Well, the US markets arw hitting new highs and PEB is plumbing new lows. In the absence of news I thought some might appreciate a chart or two as it will be the mainfocus until something comes out

5971

Being a fan of abstract art from the Bauhous Art movement, Kandinsky etc, I can now understand peoples love of the chart. ;)

[Balance]

Being a fan of abstract art from the Bauhous Art movement, Kandinsky etc, I can now understand peoples love of the chart. ;)

Lemming run - that's how using charts been described at when you play relatively illiquid markets.

[Bobcat.]

sounds interesting BC--Am I right in assuming that you would sell just before the AGM?

Often I do, Skid, but in this case I expect a positive slant from DD and others at the AGM, with a sales update dispelling some cynicism that's developed these past two months, and so I'm more likely to hold. If and when resistance price points are busted, I might even buy more on the way up.

If on the other hand, PEB's sales update at the AGM disappoints, I would say that the impact on its sp will be less dramatic. But that's still 7 weeks away - much can happen before then!

Momentum (and exaggerated expectations) are my friend. Currently PEB is trading at 74c with revised resistance at 77c (previously support). If it drops further, 75c will be a resistance point which if busted will be my new buy signal. Meanwhile, it's getting very close to my bid getting hit - anticipating a final dump to take out what's sitting there at 70c.

I've just noticed (see the chart) that a long term upward trend line can be drawn from 20c two years ago, thru 45c last September, to around 64c this month. If this current sentiment continues, PEB may well drop that far before lifting again. That considered, I'm going to forgo my usual stop loss and hold whatever I'm about to buy, anticipating a bounce off either 69/70c or the mid 60's.

Happy trading, folks.

BC

[craic]

669 pages on the best or worst of penny dreadfuls - must be a record. Ah well! Anxiety is a shocking affliction.

[Balance]

Yup, lots of Lemmings at the insto houses etc. Doesn't change the fact it's stil going down though...

Like when Snakk was going up (chart wise)?

[geo]

From the research I carried out on PEB and the agreements signed with different NPN's etc., I came to the conclusion that they don’t really mean a lot, although they won’t drive sales they will act as an intermediary so that PEB does not have to process multiple payments from different clients.

I could be wrong but I get the feeling people on this thread are looking at NPN's the wrong way.

A couple of thoughts that might help clear things up for people.

1 - NPN's are a network of providers (diagnostics, medical supplies, bandages, hip joints etc. etc.) coupled with GP's, specialists, insurance companies and so forth.

2 - It would be incorrect to assume NPN's would actively go and promote products in their network (CX-bladder included), of the 500,000+ products FedMed boasts, imagine the cost for a business that generates a tiny incremental margin on sales as it is an aggregator of receivables and payables. It does not make sense from an NPN's perspective (although I could be wrong)

3 - How have sales come through Fed MEd then? That is easy in principle to think about due to peoples underlying insurance policies. Some people (mainly wealthy) will have full insurance coverage that covers them right down to the drugs they pick up at the drug store and it is in their best interests to use as many tests etc. as the insurance company HAS to pay. This type of insurance coverage is rare and expensive but some people have it.

4 - For sales to be driven through the provider networks your average Joe has two main options, 1) pay himself or 2) let insurance pay for it. As we know, PEB has no direct relationships with an insurance provider for CX bladder to be used at all in the detection of bladder cancer which is frustrating as they have arguably been working on these relationships for what must be close to two years now. I have a horrible feeling that PEB may have to do a much larger clinical trial but I' not 100% sure about that although it would be bad as it will cost a lot of money.

I guess the crux of what I am saying is that PEB will never be worth 70c if it can’t get insurance providers to cover CX Bladder. You will continue to see increasing sales at a marginal rate as more people become aware and can afford to pay for themselves or have exceptional medical coverage but that is an exception, not the norm and that will realistically be so marginal in the scheme of what they are trying to achieve.

I would also take note of things happening in Spain, Australia, and back here in NZ. Nothing seems to be going to plan and it would be unfair to lay blame entirely on issues PEB can't control. Quite possibly it has a risen from a lack of understanding about the healthcare industries in each country or more simply it’s due to issues with the product itself. I sat down with PEB senior execs one day and discussed how CX bladder was priced; they talked about code staking and talked about how other successful diagnostics had done the same. They even named them, of which I knew all of them and also knew they didn’t code stack at all. They got their own miscellaneous codes which are easier for users and you can generally charge a higher price. I was slightly worried after that meeting tbh about the direction and the lack of understanding by people I thought would be on top of it. This was over a year ago now and I believe there have been changes to the pricing schemes in America which I have not followed.

America is also going through major health care reform which is often not great for businesses as an entirety. I am also yet to see a research piece on the true cost benefit of cx bladder. I have an example in AU with a different diagnostic test and tried to replicate it with CX bladder, couldn’t get the numbers to stack up. People on this thread constantly preach the 500 test vs 2000 cystoscopy which is true but not a fair representation of the true cost of cxbladder. You have to build binomial trees with sensitivity and specificity into each branch and what the costs of miss detection are etc. The hardest part is getting a grasp on the exact medical costs in the US. The medical database is a nightmare to use and if anyone has a way of explaining it id be grateful.

This company is one of the most difficult I have ever looked at from a research point of view and the acronym DYOR that is thrown round by everyone amazes me. I imagine no one on this thread has done the work in its entirety to determine exactly what CX bladder is worth or how it should be priced. I am more than happy to work with someone in valuing / back solving the price of Cxbladder using the binomial method if someone can help me get medical cost prices from the US. PM me if you’re interested


Good luck to those holding and I hope it works out. CX Bladder is a product for the greater good of humanity and for that I think it should succeed. I'm just not willing to risk my money on it.



FYI: I'm no longer a holder of PEB but will look to get in again at some point in time.


Excellent post Intel. Fair honest and intelligent some of you posters out there should read Intel post a couple of times.

[Tsuba]

Don't take your anger out on me that you're still holding. I'm just trying to help others with my postings.

(Glad there are no red cards anymore. Why did I step in here again, God...)


I actually enjoy your posts mooster. You have a sence of humor. :t_up:

[Copper]

Don't take your anger out on me that you're still holding. I'm just trying to help others with my postings.

(Glad there are no red cards anymore. Why did I step in here again, God...)
My computer won't accept the Snakk thread,,,Ipad,too many redirections,,,so I thought I would have a look here.Nothing changed ....a lot of grumps but to add to your misery SNK went up on high turnover,Thought that would make yours and Balance's day..cheers.

[Balance]

My computer won't accept the Snakk thread,,,Ipad,too many redirections,,,so I thought I would have a look here.Nothing changed ....a lot of grumps but to add to your misery SNK went up on high turnover,Thought that would make yours and Balance's day..cheers.

$61K of 'high' turnover, wow!

I am so underwhelmed!

[Copper]

$61K of 'high' turnover, wow!

I am so underwhelmed!
Good on you Balance. You always have an answer.I will give that to you.Have a nice weekend.
cheers...

[Balance]

Don't take your anger out on me that you're still holding. I'm just trying to help others with my postings.

(Glad there are no red cards anymore. Why did I step in here again, God...)

Moosie - back up a hoof, will yuh?

You are making a few flying (into the unknown abyss) assumptions here!

I am only reinforcing the point that charts can be used in highly liquid markets for trading bias.

Illiquid stocks with bugger all trading history and event driven stocks, lemming run - the stock price momentum up or down carries its own technical bias.

Peace, bro.

[Copper]

Moosie - back up a hoof, will yuh?

You are making a few flying (into the unknown abyss) assumptions here!

I am only reinforcing the point that charts can be used in highly liquid markets for trading bias.

Illiquid stocks with bugger all trading history and event driven stocks, lemming run - the stock price momentum up or down carries its own technical bias.

Peace, bro.
Balance....do I observe from that post that you have gone from the boring old fart accountant /auditor poster to a new generation modern lingual wise poster.The terminologies used similar to Toyota adds together with the Indian Chief outpourings gives me a new light on the ..GURU...
Have an even better night and weekend. Kindest regards....Copper

[MAC]

The repetitious, constant slagging of PEB is of no consequence to me. And you suggesting that the knocker balance contribution is of value is a joke. An opposing opinion would be welcomed; but, they are only interested in self-promotion, posing and postulation.

You and others have only ever posted unsubstantiated claims (never documented or backed up) and libellous accusations.

As stated in my post:

"The negative and heavily biased posters appear to have pushed a lot of the knowledgeable posters and long term holders away. The credibility of the thread has been largely destroyed by their efforts".

That is the way this thread is now; it is obvious, just browse the last couple of weeks.

I look at it this way Hancock’s, bearish and bullish views are always welcome esp when substantiated with facts, links, references and not just a lazy opinion.

Knockers though I think genuinely believe they can make a quick buck by down ramping, trashing companies, slandering management and trying to scare newbies and the less experienced into panic selling or commiserating their hard earned investments.

They don’t have any influence on the market whatsoever, but I believe they have ego’s big enough to think that they do. Most investors in PEB probably don’t know this forum even exists and share price movements, up or down, are certainly not made here.

Quite a pathetic waste of time and energy that could be put into something constructive really, life’s just really way too short.

[MAC]

On the contrary, clearly my point was that Knockers have no influence on the share price, all they provide is a proliferation of self-indulged dribble that I think most reasonable viewers both completely ignore and really just think is quite pathetic.

The shame as Hancock's suggests is that many folk who have historically added much valued research and insight to this thread and forum no longer do so simply because it is unrewarding to wade through pages of proliferated negative opinion provided by those with dubious motivations.

[croesus]

I agree with Hancocks,

A lot of low quality posting, by tall poppy knockers, who probably live with there mums, and drive Ford Cortinas.

Noticed the same on the AOR thread ( not a great thread ) but lately full of losers knocking Chris Castle... would imagine concrete salesman and Angorra Goat farmers mainly.

[Balance]

On the contrary, clearly my point was that Knockers have no influence on the share price, all they provide is a proliferation of self-indulged dribble that I think most reasonable viewers both completely ignore and really just think is quite pathetic.

The shame as Hancock's suggests is that many folk who have historically added much valued research and insight to this thread and forum no longer do so simply because it is unrewarding to wade through pages of proliferated negative opinion provided by those with dubious motivations.

Takes a tree 100 years to grow but just takes a vandal with an axe (to grind) or chainsaw a few hours to kill the tree.

[Copper]

Takes a tree 100 years to grow but just takes a vandal with an axe (to grind) or chainsaw a few hours to kill the tree.
Good grief Balance....that'll stop it in its tracks.......

[barleeni]

I also agree with Hancocks, I think I mentioned in a post a few days ago that 1 or 2 of the 30 previous posts at that point in time were topic related.

And id like to directly point out to snapiti that yes the PEB share price has plummeted in the last wee while. Id also like to very clearly point out that Pacific Edge is by no means at all alone in this trend - look at Xero, SLI, Wynyard etc. etc. etc....................... they all mimic the same slide pattern eerily similarly. By your logic Snapiti you must believe that all of these companies are also rubbish are they? Pacific Edges slide is nothing to do with market sentiment at all is it snapiti ?

Both my partner and I independently hold PEB shares, though my partner long ago gave up on this thread due to what we are all seeing right now - continual meaningless dribble. There are some excellent contributors, but unfortunately they are far outweighed at present.

What Pacific Edge is doing right now, is a huge challenge. Taking on the big boys and trying to create a business that will hopefully highlight to the world what we can do from this tiny country of ours should be applauded by all of us. Yes of course they will make mistakes along the way, yes of course its going to bloody difficult, but man alive they really should be lauded for their efforts to date.

How about we put things in perspective here, yes, some of us are going to loose a dollar or two long the way as minor shareholders - thats the nature of the game! and surely none of us were silly enough to have invested thinking this was a sure thing were we?

Full props to PEB for giving it a crack. Lets cut them some slack now aye snapiti et al?

[winner69]

What Pacific Edge is doing right now, is a huge challenge. Taking on the big boys and trying to create a business that will hopefully highlight to the world what we can do from this tiny country of ours should be applauded by all of us. Yes of course they will make mistakes along the way, yes of course its going to bloody difficult, but man alive they really should be lauded for their efforts to date.



Bought tears to my eyes

Sorry mate, off topic

[blackcap]

I agree with Hancocks,

A lot of low quality posting, by tall poppy knockers, who probably live with there mums, and drive Ford Cortinas.

Noticed the same on the AOR thread ( not a great thread ) but lately full of losers knocking Chris Castle... would imagine concrete salesman and Angorra Goat farmers mainly.

I do not think it has anything to do with knocking tall poppy's. Its more about being realistic about performance and expected performance over a long period of time and from what I gather outrageous "management fees" for the size of said company and a bit of caveat emptor.

I see I have gone off topic too. But as far as PEB is concerned... I am not knocking the company at all. But I would not pay 70 cents for it. I am in essence knocking "mr market" (at my peril). Whenever I am evaluating a company I do want to know what I am paying. Therefore I am more negative on a lot of stocks (not because I do not like the company) but because I think they are fully or over valued. I am finding it harder to find value in the NZ market and therefore take a more "negative" view as far as investing is concerned.

[Snow Leopard]

No use posting complaints that no one is discussing PEB fundamentals - you are just adding to the dribble.

So Annual Report page 7, left hand side, bottom half:


Two User Programmes at large District Health
Board (DHB) clinics in New Zealand completed
their evaluation and provided results that confirmed
Cxbladder’s performance in an operating
clinical setting. These two sites provided blinded
samples to Pacific Edge’s laboratory which showed
an overall sensitivity of 90% at a specificity of 75%
compared to the clinical study3 of 82% and 85%
respectively. At this performance Cxbladder saw
100% of T1, T2 and Tis stage tumours. These
recent results effectively replicate the accuracy
obtained in the clinical study published in the
Journal of Urology in September 20123. The
Company is looking to publish these results in 2014
in an appropriate clinical or scientific journal after
inclusion of other User Programmes.


Getting more articles about CxBladder in respected, and hopefully widely read by decision makers, journals is definitely good.
However given the experience of my partner (admittedly in a different and unrelated field) I know that the timing of publication of journal articles is very much at the whim of the publishers (extremes for partner are 2 months and 2 years, about 7-9 months is typical).

The details will, I assume, not be revealed until the actual article is published and then we, the general public, will probably have difficulty getting hold of the same or understanding it if we do, but I am interested in the results of sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 75%.

This suggests to me that compared to the earlier 82%/85% results that these User Programs gave more positive results, both true positives and false positives. I am concerned by the drop in specificity.

Neither I am not sure that we have "effective replication" of the earlier clinical study here. How do others view this?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

Fair enough Tiger, I’ll have a go;

For Cxbladder(detect) as per the user programmes you refer to, the sample size is lower than the clinical trials and it seems there are some nice truncated percentages to behold, 90 and 75.

Having said that, sensitivity is the predominant desirable product attribute for Cxbladder(detect), specificity being the all important factor for the pending Cxbladder(triage) product.

So, a 90% overall sensitivity result from the Cxbladder(detect) user programmes, affirming or being slightly better than the clinical trials, must be satisfying for Pacific Edge and shareholders.

[Snow Leopard]

MAC

Would you not think that a sample size sufficiently small to be the cause of the variation kind of reduces the validity of the program results.

So we should ignore the 90%/75% and go back to a more likely 82%/85% as the more reliable figures.

How does Triage work then?
If it is lower sensitivity/higher specificity (than Detect) it will give more false negatives and more cancers will be missed.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Moosie says PS ratio: 469 (eg about as much as GEO was on at its height; normal for well-founded biotechs is about 7).

So if PEB get to the $100m sales in (even) 5 years we can expect a market cap of $700m

From now to then is a gain of 23% a year

So maybe in the context of the big plan todays price is about right .... yes Moosie?

[MAC]

Metrics will just lead you astray Moosie without consideration of a business plan and forward potential, especially if comparing companies in different sectors like that, or in comparing startup’s with companies in later stages.

The valuation of growth stocks is made by considering the net present value of projected cashflow’s, try a DCF for starters. The pending analyst reports may do this for you if you don’t have the confidence to give it a go.

I would not be much surprised to find that a lot of buying activity awaits the release of those reports, particularly Edison’s report as their valuation releases are watched and read closely by the offshore investors and insto’s.

[winner69]

Edison eh MAC

I hope the PEB one is of a higher standard than the one they did for Snakk Media

[winner69]

PEB fundamentals:

EPS: -3.3 cents
PE ratio: -24
.

That's a pretty low PE value for a growth company
Heck even XRO's has a PE of 91

[MAC]

Cxbladder(triage) is a purpose designed screening tool per the diagram below;

Perhaps we all will have to wait to be convinced by Cxbladder(triage) Tiger as the spec has not yet been released by Pacific Edge, although some including myself anticipate that it should have a higher specificity and performance than NMP22 BladderCheck else Pacific Edge may not have pursued it’s development for this application.

5977

[winner69]

I await the Edison Report with bated breath.

Just reading up now on Yahoo! during 1999.

Mcap of $131B (yes, billion) .....Now $36 billion
FY profit of $61M Now $1.36 billion
FY revenue of $588M Now $4.7 billion
PS ratio of 224 and PE ratio of 2154 PS of about 7 / PE of 30
Those were some crazy times eh?


So about reasonable now?

[blackcap]

I would not be much surprised to find that a lot of buying activity awaits the release of those reports, particularly Edison’s report as their valuation releases are watched and read closely by the offshore investors and insto’s.

Why place faith in Edison reports? They value CRP at $1.70 or thereabouts as well.

[Snow Leopard]

The American Journal of Urology advertise this timeline for them to publish.

5978

That is good, most take longer.
As I said 2 months upwards

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Cxbladder(triage) is a purpose designed screening tool per the diagram below;

Perhaps we all will have to wait to be convinced by Cxbladder(triage) Tiger as the spec has not yet been released by Pacific Edge, although some including myself anticipate that it should have a higher specificity and performance than NMP22 BladderCheck else Pacific Edge may not have pursued it’s development for this application.

5977

Whilst I understand that the person on the left hand side of page 8 of the annual report is not Chris Swann even though the right hand side is titled "Chairman's Report" that Triage thing baffles me.

The test would need to have a really good sensitivity - not many false negatives - for a GP to be happy to accept the result and send the patient home (so to speak) given that apparently they pack 80% off to the specialist currently.
But high sensitivity implies low specificity so lots of false positives and you have lots of to the specialist anyway.
Or if you can achieve high specificity as well then it would be all round better than CxB Detect.

But it could be something else entirely as well, so does the patient turn up at the specialists with a note from the GP "I do not know what is wrong but it is not bladder cancer".

I guess we just have to wait and see...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

On the contrary, clearly my point was that Knockers have no influence on the share price, all they provide is a proliferation of self-indulged dribble that I think most reasonable viewers both completely ignore and really just think is quite pathetic.

The shame as Hancock's suggests is that many folk who have historically added much valued research and insight to this thread and forum no longer do so simply because it is unrewarding to wade through pages of proliferated negative opinion provided by those with dubious motivations.

The knockers (as you put it) would be worth their weight in gold if newby investors would have taken their advice(and stepped back to do more research)instead of taking your advice at 1.70 Mac--(If I remember correctly ,you said it was something like seriously undervalued)--There is merit in being cautious sometimes.
It could take a long time to crack the US market--It doesnt mean they are down for the count,but lets face it -we are not in those heady days any more ,at least for now--lets be realistic and go from here.

[Balance]

The knockers (as you put it) would be worth their weight in gold if newby investors would have taken their advice(and stepped back to do more research)instead of taking your advice at 1.70 Mac--(If I remember correctly ,you said it was something like seriously undervalued)--There is merit in being cautious sometimes.
It could take a long time to crack the US market--It doesnt mean they are down for the count,but lets face it -we are not in those heady days any more ,at least for now--lets be realistic and go from here.

Skid & MAC - Market is always right only at a point in time.

Those who sold out in panic during the GFC and 911 incidents will tell you they did the right thing. Those who bought also did the right thing. Matter of perspective.

[nextbigthing]

Any ideas as to what's happening with the other products (non bladder) at the moment?

[ziggy415]

Consider this analogy:

You have purchased your dream car and install an alarm which has an adjustment so that you can control the threshold for the alarm going off. Initially you set this to make sure you are alerted by low risk activity. However, after a few days of having the alarm triggered randomly you decide to decrease the sensitivity.

On one occasion, the alarm goes off and you run outside to see some $h!t-#ead running away. The alarm did its job. However, one day your car is broken into and the alarm doesn’t get triggered!

When you first set the alarm, it was very sensitive; however, because “non-burglar” activity triggered the alarm, your alarm was not veryspecific.

After you re-adjust the threshold, you eliminated all the annoying “false alarms” and you actually scared off 1 burglar. The alarm is now veryspecific for only alarming when you have a burglar. However, there was one episode that the burglar did not trigger the alarm. Therefore, your alarm is not very sensitive, since it missed 50% of all burglars.

consider this, Hancocks is a patriotic american who has driven an American petrol car all his working life when suddenly an upstart little country on the other side of the world wants to sell him one of their new cars and whats more its not even petrol but hydrogen powered...sure its a bit cheaper , but does hancocks buy one...not on your life...and there lies the problem with trying to convince american doctors to change. to cx bladder...
oops musn,t forget the smilee:t_up:

[ziggy415]

consider this, Hancocks is a patriotic american who has driven an American petrol car all his working life when suddenly an upstart little country on the other side of the world wants to sell him one of their new cars and whats more its not even petrol but hydrogen powered...sure its a bit cheaper , but does hancocks buy one...not on your life...and there lies the problem with trying to convince american doctors to change. to cx bladder...
oops musn,t forget the smilee:t_up:

[winner69]

I highly recommend people read Dot Con by John Cassidy and see what happens to severely overvalued stocks when interest rates rise. It has already started in NZ and the US will probably begin next year.

You can call me a knocker and down ramper all you want, but a) you can't fight fundamentals and b) you sure can't fight the Fed.

I hope PEB delivers on its promises, but near and medium term I am bearish. Everyone knows I used to be all bull on growth, but it is definitely time to start thinking defensively...

Cassidy wrote a very good book in 2010 titled How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities

Not just about stock markets but the world in general

I enjoy his writings in the New Yorker
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/

[sharp]

https://www.libraries.psu.edu/psul/hershey/about/ceo-perspectives/innovation-at-pennstatehershey.html


What are the implications?

[Bobcat.]

Very small volume today but last week we saw growing trading volume, which is encouraging, with good demand for PEB shares on Friday afternoon to close it at 77c (my buy trigger price). An inverse head and shoulder pattern looks to have been established at 69/72. If the sp holds and closes today with a higher low, that would be quite bullish.

Of course the NASDAQ rising does help - we have yet to see the effect of a falling NASDAQ BioTech Index (NBI) on PEB in its currently weakened state.

Discl: I've lifted my bid a couple of notches to sit just above PEB's shoulder.

[Tsuba]

consider this, Hancocks is a patriotic american who has driven an American petrol car all his working life when suddenly an upstart little country on the other side of the world wants to sell him one of their new cars and whats more its not even petrol but hydrogen powered...sure its a bit cheaper , but does hancocks buy one...not on your life...and there lies the problem with trying to convince american doctors to change. to cx bladder...
oops musn,t forget the smilee:t_up:

It intriges me why so many people who don't own shares, I assume, in PEB and have no real interest in the company put so much energy into slagging it off. May I suggest those people go outside and feed the chickens. In other words do something meaningful with your life. At least with Snapiti, even though I don't always like what he says, he backs up his reasons with things a bit more pertinent than a pathetic car analogy.

Snaps also owns shares in the company so am sure he wants his present views to change.

[ziggy415]

It intriges me why so many people who don't own shares, I assume, in PEB and have no real interest in the company put so much energy into slagging it off. May I suggest those people go outside and feed the chickens. In other words do something meaningful with your life. At least with Snapiti, even though I don't always like what he says, he backs up his reasons with things a bit more pertinent than a pathetic car analogy.

Snaps also owns shares in the company so am sure he wants his present views to change.
Tsuba you missed my obvious point,...if peb cant get sale,s the company wont survive and the secret to sales is getting the people on board that matters....doctors that don,t change easily...you are correct that i dont own shares in peb but since listening to this thread and to the likes of handcock(for) and snapiti(against... all be it open to change when sales pick up)i think peb do have a good product....and no i dont own chickens either.:p

[ziggy415]

Feel free to edit
sorry miner dont understand your post

[ziggy415]

Hancocks ........
Hancocks used the car alarm analogy and i thought my post was along the same lines..it wasn,t meant to be pointed or sarcastic in any way...maybe my brain and my posts aren,t on the same wave length

[nextbigthing]

Hancocks. No d in there. Feeding chickens. Not choking them.

[ziggy415]

Hancocks. No d in there. Feeding chickens. Not choking them.
ah now i see ..no D....sorry didn,t realize

[Snow Leopard]

...The field of bioinformatics is very complicated and the sensitivity and specificity of a test is only part of it and is like a brief summary of its utility or usefulness. I wouldn't get hung up on those terms....

Need to come clean and admit that:
I worked in medical informatics as a designer and implementer of medical software systems (I briefly mentioned one such on the Orion Healthcare thread).

I am good with numbers and understanding what they actually represent and what are meaningful conclusions that can be drawn from them (though I occasionally get it wrong :mellow:).

I am confident that the PPV near the end of the video on this CxBladder.com (http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/) page is very wrong, even if the music is OK:
5991

and that this is right:
5992

And here is a nice little article about medical professionals and statistics (http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28166019), which makes you wonder whether this discussion is worth the candle :scared:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Oh and also...

...I do not understand the chicken thing :confused:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[AndyLP]

Your numbers look correct PT.. Assuming you can use the 1-sensitivity to generate the false negative. Which of course you should be able to do.

[nextbigthing]

Oh and also...

...I do not understand the chicken thing :confused:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The one and only time I get to explain something to PT and not the other way round. Hence my sharetrader career peaking.

Someone was mistakingly calling Hancock's HanD cocks and someone earlier was talking about feeding chickens.
I have simply combined the themes of the day to help someone who was confused about Hancock's name.
Hancock's and feeding chickens, not Handcocks and choking them as this person was confused with.

An alternative theory I heard bantered round is that in Hancock's funny picture, the chicken is a metaphor for PEB and the arm belongs to a few of the 'members' on this site.

Anyway, back to topic

[Tsuba]

PT is an academic and does not understand the simple things in life. You haven't lived until you have had a pet chook in your life not to mention a pet Guinea Fowl by the name of Twink. Would load an image to warm the cockles of you guys heart but cannot figure how to do. I need the advice of Tiggy to do so.;)

[psychic]

Need to come clean and admit that:
I worked in medical informatics as a designer and implementer of medical software systems (I briefly mentioned one such on the Orion Healthcare thread).

I am good with numbers and understanding what they actually represent and what are meaningful conclusions that can be drawn from them (though I occasionally get it wrong :mellow:).

I am confident that the PPV near the end of the video on this CxBladder.com (http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/) page is very wrong, even if the music is OK:
5991

and that this is right:
5992

And here is a nice little article about medical professionals and statistics (http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28166019), which makes you wonder whether this discussion is worth the candle :scared:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Great to have you posting on this thread PT. Thank you.

[AndyLP]

Oh and also...

...I do not understand the chicken thing :confused:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Also known as bashing the bishop

[Minerbarejet]

Did you have to bring religion into it?

[ziggy415]

Also known as bashing the bishop
Also known as bashing Ziggy...I guess I got a " D " minus for that post...man you guys are a tough crowd...but im learning and thats what matters

[winner69]

PT's challenge to PEB's numbers seems to have been. Met with deathly silence from the PEB believers

[Tsuba]

PT's challenge to PEB's numbers seems to have been. Met with deathly silence from the PEB believers

Maybe they have decided to get a life and spend time with the chooks.

[kiora]

Need to come clean and admit that:
I worked in medical informatics as a designer and implementer of medical software systems (I briefly mentioned one such on the Orion Healthcare thread).

I am good with numbers and understanding what they actually represent and what are meaningful conclusions that can be drawn from them (though I occasionally get it wrong :mellow:)
I am confident that the PPV near the end of the video on this CxBladder.com (http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/) page is very wrong, even if the music is OK:
5991

and that this is right:
5992

And here is a nice little article about medical professionals and statistics (http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28166019), which makes you wonder whether this discussion is worth the candle :scared:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Great post PT thanks

[MAC]

Well, all the phD scientists at Pacific Edge, their internationally experienced scientific advisory board, the clinical trial review board, and the journal of urology could all be right about the merits of Cxbladder, or, a Tiger with an opinion on the internet could be right, ....... time will surely tell.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/

[winner69]

Well, all the phD scientists at Pacific Edge, their internationally experienced scientific advisory board, the clinical trial review board, and the journal of urology could all be right about the merits of Cxbladder, or, a Tiger with an opinion on the internet could be right, ....... time will surely tell.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/

At least the Tiger with an opinion on the internet said "But at the end of the day what really matters is sales and profits"

Sales and profits don't seem to be part of the language that all the phD scientists at Pacific Edge, their internationally experienced scientific advisory board, the clinical trial review board, speak

I doubt that Darling has ever seen a P&L showing a profit in his life

[nextbigthing]

Paper Tiger,

Have you sent a query through to PEB re your figures?

Cheers, NBT

[psychic]

PT's challenge to PEB's numbers seems to have been. Met with deathly silence from the PEB believers

Yes, been hoping for a bit of debate on this from those that may have the knowledge. Unlike PT, I am much less comfortable with numbers and the whole pos and neg predictive value thing leaves me as confused as PT's article suggests the MD's may be.

I don't know how PEB could publish an incorrect PPV, would like PT to challenge them on it. Am sure DD would reply immediately. I'm guessing there must be an explanation for it.

I'd also like PT's explanation of the effect - dumbed down if he would not mind. I understood that the value of the test was its high Negative Predictive Value (ie we need to have confidence that if the test result is negative then there is a very high likelihood that the result is true.
A lower PPV will mean more patients would be sent for further analysis. ??

[couta1]

Peb to launch e-commerce site so kiwis can order test kit direct good idea aye:cool:

[winner69]

Peb to launch e-commerce site so kiwis can order test kit direct good idea aye:cool:

Needs to be revalued as an internet company now

Even better if Darling said it was cloud based .... missed an opportunity there methinks

[couta1]

Needs to be revalued as an internet company now

Even better if Darling said it was cloud based .... missed an opportunity there methinks
I think there's a big market in all countries they enter for direct ordering perhaps they could team up with SLI? A lot of runners for instance would order via this method just to give them piece of mind without visiting their GP.

[MAC]

Peb to launch e-commerce site so kiwis can order test kit direct good idea aye:cool:

A good proactive and positive move, for many with cancer, and I can assure you, $350 for a test and a little peace of mind is a worthwhile thing. Should promote some healthy GP discussion too when patients knock on the door with the results. Hopefully they will roll it out in the US too.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/196688.pdf

[Tsuba]

Well, all the phD scientists at Pacific Edge, their internationally experienced scientific advisory board, the clinical trial review board, and the journal of urology could all be right about the merits of Cxbladder, or, a Tiger with an opinion on the internet could be right, ....... time will surely tell.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/


That crossed my mind too. The doom merchants are happy to take the word of an anonymous expert in the field of statistical analysis who apparently has more knowledge and access to the data than the people employed by PEB to analyze the data. I could say I am a urologist and think the test is crap and those people would believe me. Off to feed the chooks.

[Tsuba]

At least the Tiger with an opinion on the internet said "But at the end of the day what really matters is sales and profits"

Sales and profits don't seem to be part of the language that all the phD scientists at Pacific Edge, their internationally experienced scientific advisory board, the clinical trial review board, speak

I doubt that Darling has ever seen a P&L showing a profit in his life

If you think they aren't interested in making money you really are a winner there mateeee. ;)

[Wolf]

I don't really see how this is necessary and will contribute to sales meaningfully. Surely there could be a better use of resources.

[goldfish]

I thought they where targetting urologists and thats why most doctors i seem to talk to have never heard of it. Now they are doing internet sales for people in nz, really, this is what there sales team can come up with.

[psychic]

I don't really see how this is necessary and will contribute to sales meaningfully. Surely there could be a better use of resources.

Agree, I don't get it.....

[GRIFFIN]

May be it's plan B as Plan A isn't cracking the sales that were expected.

[biker]

I think this is a great move. If I found blood in my urine I would still go to my GP to discuss the implications but would order a test immediately.
I really like the idea of having direct control of a diagnostic process.
Power to the patient I say. Good on them.

[Longhaul]

Well why don't we look at the pros and cons of this:

Pros:
Establishing a new sales channel with limited overhead and (with approval) can be replicated in other markets relatively easily
Create pull demand for the test from the end user to help raise awareness of the test with GPs and health professionals
End user can order and complete the test from home saving an initial consultation and potential embarrassment
Changing the expectations of the consumer and positioning the test almost as a consumer product (obviously requires expert interpretation but similar to pregnancy tests)

Cons:
A bit of upfront cost sure (but all the other systems/logistics are set up so it can't be hard)
Struggling to think of other downsides.

Just my 2c.

[goldfish]

I think this is a great move. If I found blood in my urine I would still go to my GP to discuss the implications but would order a test immediately.
I really like the idea of having direct control of a diagnostic process.
Power to the patient I say. Good on them.
Why would you do that? Order a test that is, the chances of it being cancer is tiny, your doctor will just tell you to give it a few days if you have no other symptoms and then he will be checking for lots of other things before even considering bladder cancer.
To me this is scary if they think this is going to help them toward there 5 year goal.

[nextbigthing]

Now all the marketing team have to do is hand out leaflets for the self service at the next hypochondriac convention and bingo.

[Balance]

Well why don't we look at the pros and cons of this:

Pros:
Establishing a new sales channel with limited overhead and (with approval) can be replicated in other markets relatively easily
Create pull demand for the test from the end user to help raise awareness of the test with GPs and health professionals
End user can order and complete the test from home saving an initial consultation and potential embarrassment
Changing the expectations of the consumer and positioning the test almost as a consumer product (obviously requires expert interpretation but similar to pregnancy tests)

Cons:
A bit of upfront cost sure (but all the other systems/logistics are set up so it can't be hard)
Struggling to think of other downsides.

Just my 2c.

Some of the posters here are showing how behind they are with marketing and promotion of products these days with their thoughts on the e-commerce site!

Any business or product these days will have a web-site as a reference and profile point - it is simply good practice.

Heck, even my cleaners have their own web-site!

No point showing your ignorance here, folks.

[Longhaul]

Yeah, this is yet another red flag imho.

Hey Moosie, what's your reasoning if you don't mind me asking?

[nextbigthing]

Some of the posters here are showing how behind they are with marketing and promotion of products these days with their thoughts on the e-commerce site!

Any business or product these days will have a web-site as a reference and profile point - it is simply good practice.

Heck, even my cleaners have their own web-site!

No point showing your ignorance here, folks.

Yet if it's so basic and essential these days, what took them so long?

[robbo24]

What a GOD AWFUL idea for PEB to sell it's product directly from its website.

Selling your product directly on your website is such a STUPID idea.

Why would any company want to sell it's own product on its own website?

Ecommerce websites are so EXPENSIVE to set up and maintain.

This is a total red flag.

[Note: 100% sarcasm]

[AndyLP]

I think it's progressive. I just asked a room of men aged 28-30 if they would order an independent online test for bladder cancer if there was blood in their urine.
Most said yes. There seems to be a mistrust of doctors in my generation. I imagine many of them would be less than confident that NZ doctors would be informed of the latest advances in medicine.

With a "slightly less than 1 in 10 chance" being significantly more than tiny IMO, I would argue that many would be concerned enough to bolster the information about their symptoms via this method. Why not? A copy of the information goes to the physician and or clinician anyway.

[biker]

Why would you do that? Order a test that is, the chances of it being cancer is tiny, your doctor will just tell you to give it a few days if you have no other symptoms and then he will be checking for lots of other things before even considering bladder cancer.
To me this is scary if they think this is going to help them toward there 5 year goal.

A small price for immediate peace of mind. (Or to allow the earliest possible start on cancer treatment) and what sort of logic says this won't help them towards their 5 year goal?
Every single extra sale they generate from this will do that.
There really does seem to be quite a negative sentiment on this site. Not sure why. With the share price now at these levels I thought it would be the opposite.
Ah well, there's nowt as queer as folks.

Disc. Hold quite a few so I'm biased

[Longhaul]

Yet if it's so basic and essential these days, what took them so long?

Erm...

"The e-commerce site has been reviewed and approved by Medsafe, the New Zealand Medicines and Medical Devices Safety Authority, and TAPS, Therapeutic Advertising Pre-vetting System of the Advertising Standards Authority."

Plus I would hope that they were focusing on other fundamental areas of the business before launching an e-commerce site.

[Tsuba]

very little expense to add profile and awareness to the product...... albeit a bit ahead of the sales curve.
These days any product that can grows it's internet presence is benefiting.

Yes I agree and how many people these days are self diagnosing via the web. I know of one such hypocondriac that would jump at the chance of a self test. Not rocket science. Sounds good to me.

[Balance]

A small price for immediate peace of mind. (Or to allow the earliest possible start on cancer treatment) and what sort of logic says this won't help them towards their 5 year goal?
Every single extra sale they generate from this will do that.
There really does seem to be quite a negative sentiment on this site. Not sure why. With the share price now at these levels I thought it would be the opposite.
Ah well, there's nowt as queer as folks.

Disc. Hold quite a few so I'm biased

There will be a few disappointed and disillusioned posters/investors on the site - probably jumped in when the stock was racing ahead, then sold out, took a loss and now are in psychological terms, indulging in self-justification.

Hard to think of any other explanation at this stage why launching an e-commerce site would invite such odium from some posters!

Amazing!

As is often said, some postings tell more about the posters than they do about the stock.

[nextbigthing]

Hard to think of any other explanation at this stage why launching an e-commerce site would invite such odium from some posters!


I'll state the obvious.... I'm assuming it's because they view this as a sign the preferred channels of sales are failing so PEB are trying another method. This view is probably backed up by the fact the product has been promoted in NZ since 2012 yet sales traction in NZ is yet to truly eventuate. Then they transferring this idea to the US and realizing sales may not eventuate to the desired level.
Before I'm abused, I'm not saying this is my view, I'm just saying this is no doubt one view on it.

Another view could be that this is the catalyst needed to build some awareness using a pull strategy rather than the current push strategy.

Pays to keep an open mind both ways and be dynamic. Take everything into account. I suspect some of the disgruntled posters are the ones who didn't sell out when they had the chance....

[youngatheart]

If even BLIS can operate a website that generates its only real source of income then definitely PEB can do it. Why only NZ though, make available internationally I'd say. Unless the sample is time sensitive perhaps?

[nextbigthing]

If even BLIS can operate a website that generates its only real source of income then definitely PEB can do it. Why only NZ though, make available internationally I'd say. Unless the sample is time sensitive perhaps?

No doubt they're testing the waters before going bigger. Fingers crossed for success.


Erm...

"The e-commerce site has been reviewed and approved by Medsafe, the New Zealand Medicines and Medical Devices Safety Authority, and TAPS, Therapeutic Advertising Pre-vetting System of the Advertising Standards Authority."

Plus I would hope that they were focusing on other fundamental areas of the business before launching an e-commerce site.

It doesn't take years...

[winner69]

Just wait for the TV ads promoting this .....that will be positive

And a shop front on trademe could be good

A segment on the shopping channel cold be good value. They could get the experts on the show how things work etc

[robbo24]

Just wait for the TV ads promoting this .....that will be positive

And a shop front on trademe could be good

Hello I am Sanjay, I call for the Pacific Edge Biotechnology.

[winner69]

Hello I am Sanjay, I call for the Pacific Edge Biotechnology.

I thought Sanjay was the wet and forget guy .....come to think of it he was different nationality

[RGR367]

Hello I am Sanjay, I call for the Pacific Edge Biotechnology.

:) Better have our landline disconnected now if this would be another cold calling replacement about Windows bug

[nextbigthing]

I thought Sanjay was the wet and forget guy .....come to think of it he was different nationality

Similar concept though Winner, spray and walk away. No that's a differrent one too dammit.

[blobbles]

To me, the announcement is a little bit smelly.

It sounds like they are saying "We can't sell this thing through doctors, they aren't picking us up, so lets sell it online ourselves to the patients and send the results to a doctor of the patients choosing so they can interpret it."

So what's happening is they have acknowledged doctors don't want to buy their product, which is obvious from sales so far anyway. I sure hope they improve, but current sales aren't too hot at all.

Think it through before seeing things through rose coloured lenses. How many people would seriously consider buying an online cancer test, using it in their home environment (where they could easily contaminate the test or use it incorrectly) without talking to a doctor? I certainly wouldn't want to, I would much rather a doctor administer a test in a sterile environment. And then something like 2-3% of all hematuria ends up as bladder cancer, so freaking people out by saying they should get a test online from the company just to make sure seems like scare tactics to me. And reeks of an inability to market their product to doctors. People can't seriously be indulging the idea that this will be good for their business long term because hypochondriacs will use the service?

Then again you could look at it another way. It is possible that the product isn't gaining traction because, even though it out performs other tests substantially, they are being blocked by big pharma's or big urological organisations due to politics/profit protection. In that context it might not be a terrible idea. But my feeling is that it also opens them up to substantial litigation from people doing the test wrong in their home, contaminating the result and then suing the company for misdiagnosis. Without much input from a doctor to inform them better, this seems a likely outcome.

[sharp]

None of the mainstream meida incl NZ Herald and NBR have yet reported on the latest development. Wait til tomorrow before they publish something on Pacific Edge and bit more of trading activity.

[Xerof]

Just wait for the TV ads promoting this .....that will be positive

And a shop front on trademe could be good

A segment on the shopping channel cold be good value. They could get the experts on the show how things work etc

They should immediately sign up Todd Carney to front the demonstrations

:eek2:

[blobbles]

None of the mainstream meida incl NZ Herald and NBR have yet reported on the latest development. Wait til tomorrow before they publish something on Pacific Edge and bit more of trading activity.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10248616/Pacific-Edge-takes-testing-online

[Balance]

None of the mainstream meida incl NZ Herald and NBR have yet reported on the latest development. Wait til tomorrow before they publish something on Pacific Edge and bit more of trading activity.

Hardly thinks this warrants too much excitement?

[Leftfield]

IMHO I like this move by PEB. It has the potential to be a 'game changer.' In the marketing world it is quite common to BOTH 'push' your product and 'pull' your product. For PEB this means that it will continue to push via Doctors and the medical system, however it will also create 'pull' demand by increasing consumer awareness and demand. This strategy has been used quite effectively to market a wide range of drugs..... including, (dare I mention it) Viagra.

ps so far the market today seems to like the move too??

Disc - Holding and happy

[JohnnyTheHorse]

IMHO I like this move by PEB. It has the potential to be a 'game changer.' In the marketing world it is quite common to BOTH 'push' your product and 'pull' your product. For PEB this means that it will continue to push via Doctors and the medical system, however it will also create 'pull' demand by increasing consumer awareness and demand. This strategy has been used quite effectively to market a wide range of drugs..... including, (dare I mention it) Viagra.

ps so far the market today seems to like the move too??

Disc - Holding and happy

If you think that this has the potential to be a game changer then I believe that you have very little idea about the market that they are operating in. Game changer it is most certainly not.

This could be a sign that they are finding it to be difficult sell, but it could also simply be that they see this as a cheap and easy way to sell a few more tests. No point speculating really, only time will tell.

[goldfish]

So is this product aimed at urologists for people that need repeat tests or for the general public who find blood in there urine?
If its both, why have the two doctors i asked at a mens health clinic not heard of cxbladder?
Why has it taken this long to be able to order it from there site, such a basic thing?
Was there revenue not going to mainly be from urologists having to repeat tests in people already diagnosed and alongside other diagnosis?
The main point being i was of the impression most of there revenue was coming from urologists, i cant see them being able to sell more then a few hundred to the direct public who are worried that they find blood in there urine, most will give it a few days or see there gp before even considering testing for cancer, as will there gp, cancer will be one of the furtherest things on there doctors mind i would have thought.

[Schrodinger]

Starting to look like BLIS. Anyone notice the similarities?

[Longhaul]

Seems to be a better write up on NBR. I won't copy the article here but it discusses the benefits of the service for those who have suffered BC and want to stay on top of their monitoring. It includes reference to one sufferer who wakes up "every" morning wondering if the cancer has returned - this service will allow him to order tests as and when he wants it, either to catch a recurrence of BC earlier than the scheduled check ups or to reassure themselves it has not returned. Each test reportedly costs $368NZD.

Of course when you think about it this makes a lot more sense for BC sufferers (or for those at elevated risk of it) than people who notice blood in their urine for the first time whose first thought will be to visit their GP.

[barleeni]

If I had a fixed marketing budget, then I wouldn't hesitate to go down this path at all....... the ROI for a marketing strategy such as this must be on the higher end of the scale a opposed to the push methodology.

Does this look familiar?

http://tvnz.co.nz/health-news/bowel-cancer-test-kits-pharmacies-4108743

My partner works in the lab for our local DHB, and she mentioned that she has heard plenty of positive feedback in regards to the link here. I cant see it being any different for PEB?

[klid]

Not big news I think, but I think some of you are trying to read into it a bit too much.

I don't think this was something that they all of a sudden thought of doing in reaction to something, as people have implied.

Especially considering the site has been "reviewed and approved" by several entities.

This is likely something that has been planned for quite some time and... yeah, just take it for what it is! I suppose they'll announce again once they do actually launch ;)

[couta1]

Storm in a teacup its just another string in their bow and why not? get with the times people if it generates extra sales then that's all good IMHO. Maybe some of those stuck in their ways GPs and other specialists ( I've met plenty) will get of their butts and start using the product if their patients are bypassing them and going direct.

[Whipmoney]

Wow some people have way too much time on their hands to be reading between the lines of an announcement like this...

[Snow Leopard]

Firstly thanks for the explanation of the chicken thing.

So whilst the Tiger debates statistics the mass talks about other stuff.


I see the e-commerce thing as a good, cost effective, sales and marketing tool. A few patients getting their medical specialist by the neck and making them aware of CxBladder.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Well, all the phD scientists at Pacific Edge, their internationally experienced scientific advisory board, the clinical trial review board, and the journal of urology could all be right about the merits of Cxbladder, or, a Tiger with an opinion on the internet could be right, ....... time will surely tell.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/

MAC you are way too sensitive (not in a clinical test sort of way).

I am not sure that you could expect any of them to have been involved in checking a three minute video.


Paper Tiger,

Have you sent a query through to PEB re your figures?

Cheers, NBT

It might be better if one of you query it, rather than me confirm I am right.
Just do not let NewGuy send the email please.


Yes, been hoping for a bit of debate on this from those that may have the knowledge. Unlike PT, I am much less comfortable with numbers and the whole pos and neg predictive value thing leaves me as confused as PT's article suggests the MD's may be.

I don't know how PEB could publish an incorrect PPV, would like PT to challenge them on it. Am sure DD would reply immediately. I'm guessing there must be an explanation for it.
...

The video says 74% I say 46.2%, but there is room for a little variation so it really could be 47%.

47 - 74 Maybe? Ask them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

...I'd also like PT's explanation of the effect - dumbed down if he would not mind. I understood that the value of the test was its high Negative Predictive Value (ie we need to have confidence that if the test result is negative then there is a very high likelihood that the result is true.
A lower PPV will mean more patients would be sent for further analysis. ??

It would seem that no explanation is necessary as you have succinctly hit the nail on the head.

So an NPV of 97% means that for every 100 people for whom the test result is negative then 97 do not have cancer and 3 do.

A PPV of 47% means that for every 100 people for whom the test is positive then 47 do have cancer and 53 do not.

A negative result is more definitive than a positive one.

NPV/PPV are dependent upon both the Sensitivity/Specificity of the test AND the prevalence of the thing you are testing for amongst those tested:
5999
Same test - different prevalence.

The figures that PEB are promoting are 'unique' to that study - based on that sample of patients. The real world may turn out to be a little different. You probably do not want to talk confidence intervals - but that comes into it as well.

What CxBladder is, is better than any other non-invasive test.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

Moosie, I’ll offer you the benefit of the doubt as I’ve not yet decided if you are disingenuous or are just lacking any real effort to understand how companies work. Although, asking the same questions over again on the same thread would appear symptomatic to some I'm sure.

Biotechnology stocks have long lead periods prior to achieving profitability because they must, clinicians are very conservative folk and must be as our lives are in their hands. They require things like clinical trials, regulatory approvals and user programmes. All important and lengthy things that take time, up to a decade sometimes. Insurers also require assessments, both medical and commercial and must be similarly conservative and time consuming over it.

Whilst ticking off all these important things, a company like Pacific Edge may well sell a few tests in parallel but essentially they are still in a development phase.

Most biotech companies typically have an infinite P/S ratio, for up to a decade even, until they reach such time that they have entered into a commercialisation phase. Yet such companies still have a value, they have qualified people, assets, patents, IP, laboratories and most importantly potential.

A DCF is a fundamental analyst’s means of determining a company’s valuation by assessing that potential. A high potential company will have a higher valuation, a lower potential company will have a lower valuation.

Pacific Edge are few weeks into their first full commercial financial year and P/S ratios remain entirely meaningless at this time and probably will be meaningless right up until when profitability is achieved.

So to answer your question – no, couldn’t give a rats what knockers think about P/S ratios.

[couta1]

I am still waiting for holders of PEB to let me know if they are still comfortable holding a "sure-shot" stock with a PS ratio of over 400 in a market looking at a possie downturn? GEO was tracking at this level a mere few months ago and everyone was calling it lunacy. Why is "different this time" for PEB?

Even if the SP halved and sales tripled we'd still be looking at a PS ratio of 60...

I'd appreciate sane answers that do not have DCF out to a squillion years or "down-ramper" or "knocker" in their reply. (I have just stated simple facts here and am looking for simple answers thanks).

Cheers,

Moose A simple answer from me is Yes I'm happy holding Peb regardless of current PS ratio and perhaps its time for another Warren Buffet quote. If you aren't comfortable holding a stock for 10 years then don't hold it for 10 minutes:cool:

[winner69]

Moosie,its not about valuation methodologies, DCFs, risk/reward ratios or whatever

Its all about belief - if you believe the story and that one day it plays out to expectations you will be richly rewarded. Nobody knows how big that reward is (with all due respect not even MAC). Keep holding while you have that belief, no matter the price on the day

Prices are just dots on a squiggly there for traders

You not convinced about the story - I wouldn't even worry about PEB then

[clip]

article in the NBR today states sales rose 63% to $838,000 while trading revenue almost tripled to $523,000 after it started selling CXbladder in US last july

Had that $838k sales been stated by pacific edge previously? Don't recall seeing it but i haven't been keeping track of this thread for a while, see attached screenshot of nbr article6001

[moadoc]

I quote from Snapiti "I believe most retail investors have no idea of the politics and protectionism go it alone companies face in the US pharmaceutical industry"
Assuming this is true (which I have no doubt it is) then I see the the announcement to sell kits online as a good move. Why?- While I don't think it will amount to a huge increase in sales, it will get the PEB name across to a wider audience through google searches and TV/radio advertising. This is something the established players are not doing, and to crack any sort of protectionism, going direct to the end user is a good thing. I am not going to assume sales are low and therefore PEB is getting desperate ( it is possible, but why jump to negative conclusions all the time). Rather I see it as forward thinking, where doing something outside the square is just adding to the push for sales. Others have commented about internet sales opening up an avenue for litigation. I would imagine this area has been well and truly looked into by PEB, as management are not exactly novices.

[Whipmoney]

I am still waiting for holders of PEB to let me know if they are still comfortable holding a "sure-shot" stock with a PS ratio of over 400 in a market looking at a possie downturn? GEO was tracking at this level a mere few months ago and everyone was calling it lunacy. Why is "different this time" for PEB?

Even if the SP halved and sales tripled we'd still be looking at a PS ratio of 60...

I'd appreciate sane answers that do not have DCF out to a squillion years or "down-ramper" or "knocker" in their reply. (I have just stated simple facts here and am looking for simple answers thanks).

Moose

Moosie, whilst I can't specifically remember your stance on this stock a few months back when it was pushing over $1.40 I do recall that I raised the issue that the stock had a Price/Sales ratio of over 37,000x. Obviously that was a function of very low sales (around 3 units to be precise) however it was still somewhat concerning that the market had priced in such a high level of growth from a base of near 0.

Its interesting that you've raise the P/S equation now, and whilst I haven't done the maths I must say that a P/S of 400 is actually relatively good for an early stage biotech with good growth prospects and a large addressable market.

Admittedly, the P/S ratio is a very crude measure of value however it is a useful quick and dirty tool to measure whether the market has ascribed too much value to a particular stock.

For example a very similar US based biotech company had a P/S Ratio of 2,400+ in Year 1. By Year 3 this was only 291x and the stock had appreciated by 51%. By Year 8 the stock had appreciated by 174% (cumulatively) which isn't a bad return when you bear in mind that there were likely significant swings in each of those years so you could potentially buy a lot lower and sell a lot higher, allowing for a return of 200%+.

What this does show is that when PEB shot from 50c to 1.60+ in a matter of weeks/months (on the back of a few announcements), then this was a good indication that the market had gone ballistic and lost its senses.

The stocks come back to (or towards) reality since then and is a lot more sensibly priced. Whether its over or under valued is a hard question but I think either way this is a binary outcome stock.

Either PEB succeeds and gains a lot more value or it fails miserably and heads to zero. I don't think anybody on this board can accurately predict (with 100% certainty) where she'll end up so I hope all bets are placed accordingly.

[MAC]

Let’s see in time Moosie, it’s a complex sector and company for all of us, and I think Pacific Edge are doing the right thing by engaging those international market researchers and analysts to work up an open valuation.

The top 100 holders are mostly long term and seem really very stable, it seems to be the small recent holders that are unsure, and perhaps these reports will provide them with a summary of the information the larger investors already have and have been content with for some time.

[Schrodinger]

Moosie, whilst I can't specifically remember your stance on this stock a few months back when it was pushing over $1.40 I do recall that I raised the issue that the stock had a Price/Sales ratio of over 37,000x. Obviously that was a function of very low sales (around 3 units to be precise) however it was still somewhat concerning that the market had priced in such a high level of growth from a base of near 0.

Its interesting that you've raise the P/S equation now, and whilst I haven't done the maths I must say that a P/S of 400 is actually relatively good for an early stage biotech with good growth prospects and a large addressable market.

Admittedly, the P/S ratio is a very crude measure of value however it is a useful quick and dirty tool to measure whether the market has ascribed too much value to a particular stock.

For example a very similar US based biotech company had a P/S Ratio of 2,400+ in Year 1. By Year 3 this was only 291x and the stock had appreciated by 51%. By Year 8 the stock had appreciated by 174% (cumulatively) which isn't a bad return when you bear in mind that there were likely significant swings in each of those years so you could potentially buy a lot lower and sell a lot higher, allowing for a return of 200%+.

What this does show is that when PEB shot from 50c to 1.60+ in a matter of weeks/months (on the back of a few announcements), then this was a good indication that the market had gone ballistic and lost its senses.

The stocks come back to (or towards) reality since then and is a lot more sensibly priced. Whether its over or under valued is a hard question but I think either way this is a binary outcome stock.

Either PEB succeeds and gains a lot more value or it fails miserably and heads to zero. I don't think anybody on this board can accurately predict (with 100% certainty) where she'll end up so I hope all bets are placed accordingly.

This is a good post. Assuming that the company has capable management I do think they have more options than the USA or bust strategy. PEB can build a successful company in other markets and they should of had contingency plans if the Amercians play too rough.

I do think this is not a $10 or $0 if they are pragmatic and not arrogant that all they have to do is turn up in the USA and they will win the market. I would of prefer them to focus on NZ/Aust etc and prove the business model but there is also nothing wrong with thinking more big bang and taking on the USA.

What they really need for the big bang theory is a very good management team and lots of friends (investors/directors/government/regulators) with very strong USA connections.

I havent seen anyrthing yet from PEB that makes me think they have the required support in the USA. Other countries would be preferable but the PEB business model does require labs which in turn costs lots of money. Because of this factor and the millions poured into the USA at the moment it is a USA or bust strategy. They dont have a plan B without asking for another $20M to enter into other countires.

Are there investors out there that are willing to back this current team in another country?

[barney]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/308781/e-commerce-platform-diagnostic-tool

[psychic]

It would seem that no explanation is necessary as you have succinctly hit the nail on the head.

So an NPV of 97% means that for every 100 people for whom the test result is negative then 97 do not have cancer and 3 do.

A PPV of 47% means that for every 100 people for whom the test is positive then 47 do have cancer and 53 do not.

A negative result is more definitive than a positive one.

NPV/PPV are dependent upon both the Sensitivity/Specificity of the test AND the prevalence of the thing you are testing for amongst those tested:
5999
Same test - different prevalence.

The figures that PEB are promoting are 'unique' to that study - based on that sample of patients. The real world may turn out to be a little different. You probably do not want to talk confidence intervals - but that comes into it as well.

What CxBladder is, is better than any other non-invasive test.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Many thanks.

The issue of the results quoted being unique to the study is really something of a nuisance. But I guess that if PEB had found further validation as being necessary for uptake in the US (or Europe for that matter), then it would have instigated this by now?

Here is a viewpoint on current biomarkers:

http://www.emagcloud.com/insoftdigital/eJIFCCApr2014/index.html#/110/

Cxbladder is mentioned page 106. The sensitivity quoted puzzles me but I don't have a copy of the O'Sullivan et al paper to see where they get this from.

Rather than thinking that world domination is the objective and that it is an all or nothing sort of deal, I'm starting to understand that Cxbladder will be used as part of a wider process based on its specific clinical advantages. I hope.

[winner69]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/308781/e-commerce-platform-diagnostic-tool

Hey Tiger - the numbers on the whiteboard behind David in the photo are different from that in the slide

[winner69]

You know its a good day on the market when TRS, Moa, Energy Mad, Veritas and PEB are the top 5 on the leader board

[Beagle]

More feedback from the labrat coal-face.
The Waitemata DHB don't seem interested in giving the Rat a CX Bladder test, despite specifically asking for one after presenting with haematuria on 1 June. Were not the Waitemata DHB part of the original pilot programme for this test ?
This rat has been asked to do follow up blood tests and a 3 part urine cytology test, now done and has now been referred to Urology for a renal Ultrasound and a Flexible Cystoscopy procedure later this month, things the poor creature is definitely not looking forward too.
The Rat received a call from the DHB registrar this morning and brought up the subject of the CX Bladder test as an alternative form of discovery.
He hadn't heard of it and neither has his doctor as previously mentioned.

Naturally the Rat is absolutely thrilled with the prospect of these tests as opposed to a simple painless and quick CX bladder test. What should he do ?
The rodent is amazed that local medical professionals seem oblivious to this CX Bladder test.

[psychic]

Roger - very sorry to hear that and thanks for posting. I'm stunned!
Yes, Waitemata DHB was part of the deal:

NZX ANNOUNCEMENT: Released 10 February 2014

Health Innovation Hub signs commercial agreement for entry of Cxbladder to DHB’s

The Health Innovation Hub (HIH) has signed a commercial agreement to engage DHBs in the adoption of Pacific Edge’s non-invasive bladder cancer detection system Cxbladder, making it accessable for nearly one out of every two New Zealanders.

As a result of the agreement Cxbladder will be considered for use to evaluate patients presenting with haematuria, a symptom of possible bladder cancer, in clinics operated by the four largest District Health Boards (DHBs), Auckland, Waitemata, Counties Manukau and Canterbury.

[Toasty]

More feedback from the labrat coal-face.
The Waitemata DHB don't seem interested in giving the Rat a CX Bladder test, despite specifically asking for one after presenting with haematuria on 1 June. Were not the Waitemata DHB part of the original pilot programme for this test ?
This rat has been asked to do follow up blood tests and a 3 part urine cytology test, now done and has now been referred to Urology for a renal Ultrasound and a Flexible Cystoscopy procedure later this month, things the poor creature is definitely not looking forward too.
The Rat received a call from the DHB registrar this morning and brought up the subject of the CX Bladder test as an alternative form of discovery.
He hadn't heard of it and neither has his doctor as previously mentioned.

Naturally the Rat is absolutely thrilled with the prospect of these tests as opposed to a simple painless and quick CX bladder test. What should he do ?
The rodent is amazed that local medical professionals seem oblivious to this CX Bladder test.

Surely you can insist on a CXbladder test before you go down the other roads? You may be the catalyst for them to adopt it based on the results?

[goldfish]

More feedback from the labrat coal-face.
The Waitemata DHB don't seem interested in giving the Rat a CX Bladder test, despite specifically asking for one after presenting with haematuria on 1 June. Were not the Waitemata DHB part of the original pilot programme for this test ?
This rat has been asked to do follow up blood tests and a 3 part urine cytology test, now done and has now been referred to Urology for a renal Ultrasound and a Flexible Cystoscopy procedure later this month, things the poor creature is definitely not looking forward too.
The Rat received a call from the DHB registrar this morning and brought up the subject of the CX Bladder test as an alternative form of discovery.
He hadn't heard of it and neither has his doctor as previously mentioned.

Naturally the Rat is absolutely thrilled with the prospect of these tests as opposed to a simple painless and quick CX bladder test. What should he do ?
The rodent is amazed that local medical professionals seem oblivious to this CX Bladder test.

Sorry to hear that man, hope it works out ok for you.
But this is what I have mentioned a few times lately, no doctors seem to have heard of cxbladder in nz, at a mens clinic where they see lots of people like you with blood in there urine they hadnt heard of cxbladder. Still waiting for a reasonable explanation for this from a PEB bull, I hate to go on about it but everyone just seems to ignore me asking.

[Longhaul]

Surely you can insist on a CXbladder test before you go down the other roads? You may be the catalyst for them to adopt it based on the results?

In a couple of weeks he'll be able to order one online, along with his wine and groceries (probably not from the same websites) :)

[goldfish]

In a couple of weeks he'll be able to order one online, along with his wine and groceries (probably not from the same websites) :)
He shouldnt have to, if it is going to be up to the patient to insist or buy himself some obscure test no one has heard of, how on earth are they going to reach anywhere near there projections.
Warning warning warning!!!

[robbo24]

More feedback from the labrat coal-face.
The Waitemata DHB don't seem interested in giving the Rat a CX Bladder test, despite specifically asking for one after presenting with haematuria on 1 June. Were not the Waitemata DHB part of the original pilot programme for this test ?
This rat has been asked to do follow up blood tests and a 3 part urine cytology test, now done and has now been referred to Urology for a renal Ultrasound and a Flexible Cystoscopy procedure later this month, things the poor creature is definitely not looking forward too.
The Rat received a call from the DHB registrar this morning and brought up the subject of the CX Bladder test as an alternative form of discovery.
He hadn't heard of it and neither has his doctor as previously mentioned.

Naturally the Rat is absolutely thrilled with the prospect of these tests as opposed to a simple painless and quick CX bladder test. What should he do ?
The rodent is amazed that local medical professionals seem oblivious to this CX Bladder test.

PM me some time, we can have a little dig and see what we can find eh? :)

[Beagle]

He shouldnt have to, if it is going to be up to the patient to insist or buy himself some obscure test no one has heard of, how on earth are they going to reach anywhere near there projections.
Warning warning warning!!!

Thanks guys. Its very confusing isn't it !! It makes me wonder both from an investment and medical perspective.
Renal ultrasound doesn't sound like too bad a procedure and that's on 15 July. If that's clear I'll make a decision sometime before 31 July whether I submit to the other far more "delightful" procedure or pay for my own CX bladder test or get the full warrant of fitness and do both ? :eek2:

[Goldstein]

''We are providing this rebate because we are a New Zealand company and have been supported by New Zealand people. We are pleased to be able to offer the service directly to people here.''

This sounds like PEB are taking the piss (sorry somebody had to say it).

Without a GP/Urologist advising a patient, this is most likely what a patient is prepared to pay - I'd love to know if they did any market research in this regard.

My question is does this also reduce the cost of the test for DHBs?

[Beagle]

How much does it cost ?

[forest]

$368, Roger I hope you do not need the test but if you do at least the test is available

[zigzag]

I'm sure I remember from the NZSA presentation, David Darling saying that "The Mad Butcher" pays to get himself tested every month, because he has a history with bladder cancer.

[Beagle]

$368, Roger I hope you do not need the test but if you do at least the test is available

Thanks mate.

[Snow Leopard]

Many thanks.

The issue of the results quoted being unique to the study is really something of a nuisance. But I guess that if PEB had found further validation as being necessary for uptake in the US (or Europe for that matter), then it would have instigated this by now?


Sorry - I will clarify:
The study had only 66 cancer cases 54 positive/12 negative from which the Sensitivity is calculated. This is a statistically small sample, so if you repeated the test with a different 66 cases the positive/negative balance and thus the sensitivity would be rather different. This where confidence intervals come in to it.



Here is a viewpoint on current biomarkers:

http://www.emagcloud.com/insoftdigital/eJIFCCApr2014/index.html#/110/

Cxbladder is mentioned page 106. The sensitivity quoted puzzles me but I don't have a copy of the O'Sullivan et al paper to see where they get this from....

The 62.1% sensitivity is not for CxBladder - but for it's predecessor uRNA:
see UoJ Article abstract (http://www.jurology.com/article/S0022-5347(12)03701-9/abstract). [The astute may spot why a positive journal article or two more might help the PEB cause].

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Frankenstein]

"Two Christchurch urologists have words of caution about the marketing of a urine test for detection of bladder cancer direct to patients"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/10255639/Warning-over-bladder-cancer-test

[Minerbarejet]

"Two Christchurch urologists have words of caution about the marketing of a urine test for detection of bladder cancer direct to patients"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/10255639/Warning-over-bladder-cancer-test
Dont have a problem with that - it has been stated that the results will be sent to the patients doctor or urologist as well as the patient. PEB would require the name of the doctor before the test could proceed probably.

[Balance]

"Two Christchurch urologists have words of caution about the marketing of a urine test for detection of bladder cancer direct to patients"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/10255639/Warning-over-bladder-cancer-test

As a long practicing doctor contact on mine commented to me yesterday, the move by PEB is an excellent one in his opinion - it will allow Joe Public direct access to a diagnosis tool to take the guesswork (and accompanying concern) out of the way.

He likens the situation to pregnancy tests - women know if it turns positive, they have to go and see a doctor immediately. A positive does not necessarily mean pregnancy but most likely to be. A negative is a huge relief (or disappointment) but missed periods can be common due to stress, diet etc and need to be monitored.

Doctors and specialists were making a fortune in the old days before pregnancy kits were available freely via the pharmacies. And some pregnancies went undetected due to the social stigma back in those days of going to a doctor or specialist to confirm - leading to health and social complications, as the doctor puts it.

The two urologists make a fair point about possible other causes of blood in the urine but Cancer is the most frightening scenario for those who experience blood in their urine. A positive or negative is an alert to action.

Just wondering if the urologists are responding to their outrageous charges for conventional tests coming under threat?

[couta1]

"Two Christchurch urologists have words of caution about the marketing of a urine test for detection of bladder cancer direct to patients"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/10255639/Warning-over-bladder-cancer-test
All good and bringing more brand awareness for Peb and CX bladder maybe these urologists and others will get off their butts and start using and promoting the product also.

[Tsuba]

Just wondering if the urologists are responding to their outrageous charges for conventional tests coming under threat?

My thoughts also. Not being able to clip the ticket so much.

[Balance]

My thoughts also. Not being able to clip the ticket so much.

Gives an idea of what PEB is up against.

[Minerbarejet]

Yes they do have a big hurdle in clinical acceptance by the entrenched clinicians. However if they could just see past the end of their noses for a second that every test that is positive for bladder cancer will probably require further tests and cystoscopy and those that are negative will still need investigation for other causes. Either way they still get into the picture and with more patients clued up as to what is going on.
Furthermore as the population increases more doctors become qualified and replace the older established GPs.
With Pacific Edge being closely allied with Otago University I find it highly unlikely that recent medical graduates would be unaware of their own University's Research and Developments.

[Slam dunk]

Great technology and now disruptive for the industry through a smart addition to their channel strategy. I'm certainly encouraged by this.

And as someone has said above, the docs still receive the results and can follow up with the patient as the doc desires (e.g. to book an appointment for further investigation/discussion). In fact, docs might see more patients because there are possibly a group of patients who have blood in their urine but are too stubborn to see a doc. Those patients can order a home test. The doc then gets the results (and therefor becomes aware of the fact that this patient has this symptom) and can follow up with the patient (regardless of what the results present) in case they want to suggest further investigation for cancer or other issues.

You only have to look at the popularity of things like WebMD.com in the States to see how much consumers are embracing the power of "personalised medicine".

[robbo24]

"Two Christchurch urologists have words of caution about the marketing of a urine test for detection of bladder cancer direct to patients"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/10255639/Warning-over-bladder-cancer-test

Peter Davidson is quoted on the main page of cxbladder.com saying "The test sees nearly 100% if the tumors of concern to a urologist."

Good on ya Pete, drum up some business! :)

[Beagle]

The one who's got potentially the most to lose at this stage, reckons the urologists were making a fair call issuing that warning.
I was very sorely tempted to just take the CX Bladder test and hope everything would come out in the wash okay, (AKA sticking my head in the sand) but really this test compliments an ultrasound and cystoscopy not replaces it.
Fair enough to warn patients as lots of people absolutely hate invasive procedures and will do almost anything to avoid them, myself included.

Waitemata DHB's approach at present seems to be to recommend patients have the 3 day cytology test, (3 urine samples in a row to go under the microscope) then send people for a renal ultrasound and then a cystoscopy.
The Rat has reluctantly realised he needs to submit to all these procedures.
The CX bladder test may be better evidence than a cytology test but they don't seem to be using it...cost reasons ?

[Tsuba]

I'll play devils advocate here amd say Balance is pretty spot on with the urologists speaking out because they will lose business!

And PEB will gain business.

[davflaws]

And after a couple of years lurking I have finally been flushed into the open.

I have bladder cancer. Haematuria got worse and worse over a week but as I had been eating beetroot I didn't worry until I peed black after the Japan Tonga game during the last world cup. Then I blocked up and had an A&E drama, admission, ultrasound scan and next day removal of a 2cm tumour which was attached to the bladder wall on a stalk which had not invaded the muscle layer. All good.

But my bladder wall grows them, and every 3 or 4 months I go to a clinic for a flexible cystoscopy. It takes about 15 mins. I lie on a gurney (sans pants) on a drawsheet. A nurse busies herself with a trolley, gloves, savlon etc, then takes my penis (respectfully) and squirts some anaesthetic jelly into my urethra, then puts a clip on my glans (gently) to stop it leaking out and gets on with preparing the cystoscopy gear.

The urologist comes in and unclips me and (very smoothly) slides the cystoscope up my urethra. We both watch progress on the big screen on the wall. Looks neat! We get to my prostate very quickly. From the inside it looks like a couple of rounded ridges on the bottom side of my urethra, with the urethra being squeezed into the "bumcrack" between them - all in glorious pink with the odd blood vessel darker. Going past the prostate has never been even slightly uncomfortable. Just past it is the sphincter at the bottom of my bladder. Folded and wrinkled. The urologist usually asks me to cough at this point but I don't - because the two or three times I have it has resulted in about half a second of minor discomfort. Now I just watch as he pokes the end of the cystoscope against the sphincter and it opens and then we are in my bladder. YAY!

He looks around at a variety of magnifications, and sometimes spots a little bright red spot (0.5-2mm). Zooming in on that, we see a pink coral polyp or small bunch of raw sausages (nothing to do with the Mad Butcher)attached to the bladder wall and waving around in the sea of urine.

So I get booked for a Trans Urethral Removal of Bladder Tumour (TURBT), and a few months later go to Hospital overnight for a GA and a procedure that takes about 15 min and leaves me with slight soreness on the end of my urethra for about 24 hrs. No big deal.

So I talked to the urologist. I gave him **** about patch protection (very brave while he's holing my member). He told me that his not using cxbladder is nothing to do with any $s that go to him. He is on salary. He says he doesn't use it because he carries the can for anything that goes wrong, that the Mk1 eyeball is still the gold standard for investigating bladder tumours, and that he sees no point in testing me with cxbladder and then using a cystoscope because he wants to be sure. He is also not convinced that the cost of using cxbladder stacks up well against the marginal cost of another cystoscopy (I am sure he is wrong - so is the nurse). He would have to be convinced that a protocol involving the use of cxbladder had become the gold stndard before he was prepared to use it. He sees its application in being in routine screening in groups at particular occupational risk (he mentioned people mining heavy metals)

I hope this helps

[Carpenterjoe]

And after a couple of years lurking I have finally been flushed into the open.

I have bladder cancer. Haematuria got worse and worse over a week but as I had been eating beetroot I didn't worry until I peed black after the Japan Tonga game during the last world cup. Then I blocked up and had an A&E drama, admission, ultrasound scan and next day removal of a 2cm tumour which was attached to the bladder wall on a stalk which had not invaded the muscle layer. All good.

But my bladder wall grows them, and every 3 or 4 months I go to a clinic for a flexible cystoscopy. It takes about 15 mins. I lie on a gurney (sans pants) on a drawsheet. A nurse busies herself with a trolley, gloves, savlon etc, then takes my penis (respectfully) and squirts some anaesthetic jelly into my urethra, then puts a clip on my glans (gently) to stop it leaking out and gets on with preparing the cystoscopy gear.

The urologist comes in and unclips me and (very smoothly) slides the cystoscope up my urethra. We both watch progress on the big screen on the wall. Looks neat! We get to my prostate very quickly. From the inside it looks like a couple of rounded ridges on the bottom side of my urethra, with the urethra being squeezed into the "bumcrack" between them - all in glorious pink with the odd blood vessel darker. Going past the prostate has never been even slightly uncomfortable. Just past it is the sphincter at the bottom of my bladder. Folded and wrinkled. The urologist usually asks me to cough at this point but I don't - because the two or three times I have it has resulted in about half a second of minor discomfort. Now I just watch as he pokes the end of the cystoscope against the sphincter and it opens and then we are in my bladder. YAY!

He looks around at a variety of magnifications, and sometimes spots a little bright red spot (0.5-2mm). Zooming in on that, we see a pink coral polyp or small bunch of raw sausages (nothing to do with the Mad Butcher)attached to the bladder wall and waving around in the sea of urine.

So I get booked for a Trans Urethral Removal of Bladder Tumour (TURBT), and a few months later go to Hospital overnight for a GA and a procedure that takes about 15 min and leaves me with slight soreness on the end of my urethra for about 24 hrs. No big deal.

So I talked to the urologist. I gave him **** about patch protection (very brave while he's holing my member). He told me that his not using cxbladder is nothing to do with any $s that go to him. He is on salary. He says he doesn't use it because he carries the can for anything that goes wrong, that the Mk1 eyeball is still the gold standard for investigating bladder tumours, and that he sees no point in testing me with cxbladder and then using a cystoscope because he wants to be sure. He is also not convinced that the cost of using cxbladder stacks up well against the marginal cost of another cystoscopy (I am sure he is wrong - so is the nurse). He would have to be convinced that a protocol involving the use of cxbladder had become the gold stndard before he was prepared to use it. He sees its application in being in routine screening in groups at particular occupational risk (he mentioned people mining heavy metals)

I hope this helps

Thanks Mate,

Appreciate the insight.

Good Luck with treatment and recovery.

Kick its arse.

[NT001]

I would venture to suggest it may not belong before a few thousand people in the States who have a medical problem (or are concerned about a suspected medical problem) in this area will have googled such words and phrases as haematuria, blood in urine and bladder cancer and come across the DYI package offered by PEB, and even though it presumably won't be available to them (yet), they'll be asking their GP or urologist about it.

One thing they'll see is that it's got approvals from medical regulators in a country with high standards, so it's reputable, unlike a lot of stuff that can be ordered by email, and backed up by an informative website. And they'll also be able to tell their medical advisers it is actually available in the US. Could be quite a smart move for marketing in the US, not necessarily an admission of failure there. A certain amount depends on how well the metadata has been constructed into the PEB site and how well it gets picked up by Google, Yahoo etc.

It's clearly taken a while to get this project up and running with these approvals, so obviously well planned and thought through, I would say. And if PEB have kept this under wraps prior to the announcement, who knows what other surprises may be in the pipeline?

[Minerbarejet]

And after a couple of years lurking I have finally been flushed into the open.

I have bladder cancer. Haematuria got worse and worse over a week but as I had been eating beetroot I didn't worry until I peed black after the Japan Tonga game during the last world cup. Then I blocked up and had an A&E drama, admission, ultrasound scan and next day removal of a 2cm tumour which was attached to the bladder wall on a stalk which had not invaded the muscle layer. All good.

But my bladder wall grows them, and every 3 or 4 months I go to a clinic for a flexible cystoscopy. It takes about 15 mins. I lie on a gurney (sans pants) on a drawsheet. A nurse busies herself with a trolley, gloves, savlon etc, then takes my penis (respectfully) and squirts some anaesthetic jelly into my urethra, then puts a clip on my glans (gently) to stop it leaking out and gets on with preparing the cystoscopy gear.

The urologist comes in and unclips me and (very smoothly) slides the cystoscope up my urethra. We both watch progress on the big screen on the wall. Looks neat! We get to my prostate very quickly. From the inside it looks like a couple of rounded ridges on the bottom side of my urethra, with the urethra being squeezed into the "bumcrack" between them - all in glorious pink with the odd blood vessel darker. Going past the prostate has never been even slightly uncomfortable. Just past it is the sphincter at the bottom of my bladder. Folded and wrinkled. The urologist usually asks me to cough at this point but I don't - because the two or three times I have it has resulted in about half a second of minor discomfort. Now I just watch as he pokes the end of the cystoscope against the sphincter and it opens and then we are in my bladder. YAY!

He looks around at a variety of magnifications, and sometimes spots a little bright red spot (0.5-2mm). Zooming in on that, we see a pink coral polyp or small bunch of raw sausages (nothing to do with the Mad Butcher)attached to the bladder wall and waving around in the sea of urine.

So I get booked for a Trans Urethral Removal of Bladder Tumour (TURBT), and a few months later go to Hospital overnight for a GA and a procedure that takes about 15 min and leaves me with slight soreness on the end of my urethra for about 24 hrs. No big deal.

So I talked to the urologist. I gave him **** about patch protection (very brave while he's holing my member). He told me that his not using cxbladder is nothing to do with any $s that go to him. He is on salary. He says he doesn't use it because he carries the can for anything that goes wrong, that the Mk1 eyeball is still the gold standard for investigating bladder tumours, and that he sees no point in testing me with cxbladder and then using a cystoscope because he wants to be sure. He is also not convinced that the cost of using cxbladder stacks up well against the marginal cost of another cystoscopy (I am sure he is wrong - so is the nurse). He would have to be convinced that a protocol involving the use of cxbladder had become the gold stndard before he was prepared to use it. He sees its application in being in routine screening in groups at particular occupational risk (he mentioned people mining heavy metals)

I hope this helps
Thanks for the very revealing and courageous post.
Hope you are on the road to recovery.
Just one question: If you had had cxBladder available online and had known about it at the time of the first appearance of haematuria would you have used it?
All the best and a speedy recovery.

[MAC]

It poses a similarity which I’ll steal from the ATM thread, simply that the more discussion and word of mouth debate that is had within the sector the better.

I can’t help but think Pacific Edge understood this was a bit of prod at the entrenched end of the Urologist spectrum. Eventually, it may get to a point whereby there is such patient demand not to be probed really quite so often, that they may even change too.

Debate ---> Awareness ---> Sales

[GRIFFIN]

Superb post davflaws and thank you for such a first hand insight to bladder cancer and its detection.
All the very best to recovery.

[skid]

I would venture to suggest it may not belong before a few thousand people in the States who have a medical problem (or are concerned about a suspected medical problem) in this area will have googled such words and phrases as haematuria, blood in urine and bladder cancer and come across the DYI package offered by PEB, and even though it presumably won't be available to them (yet), they'll be asking their GP or urologist about it.

One thing they'll see is that it's got approvals from medical regulators in a country with high standards, so it's reputable, unlike a lot of stuff that can be ordered by email, and backed up by an informative website. And they'll also be able to tell their medical advisers it is actually available in the US. Could be quite a smart move for marketing in the US, not necessarily an admission of failure there. A certain amount depends on how well the metadata has been constructed into the PEB site and how well it gets picked up by Google, Yahoo etc.

It's clearly taken a while to get this project up and running with these approvals, so obviously well planned and thought through, I would say. And if PEB have kept this under wraps prior to the announcement, who knows what other surprises may be in the pipeline?

Id be interested to know if you have come across cxbladder by googleing these things NT,because I spent a fair amount of time trying to find any mention of it ,to no avail.
Thats when I started to be concerened with the marketing side of things(at least,in terms of the timeline)

[NZSilver]

The one who's got potentially the most to lose at this stage, reckons the urologists were making a fair call issuing that warning.
I was very sorely tempted to just take the CX Bladder test and hope everything would come out in the wash okay, (AKA sticking my head in the sand) but really this test compliments an ultrasound and cystoscopy not replaces it.
Fair enough to warn patients as lots of people absolutely hate invasive procedures and will do almost anything to avoid them, myself included.

Waitemata DHB's approach at present seems to be to recommend patients have the 3 day cytology test, (3 urine samples in a row to go under the microscope) then send people for a renal ultrasound and then a cystoscopy.
The Rat has reluctantly realised he needs to submit to all these procedures.
The CX bladder test may be better evidence than a cytology test but they don't seem to be using it...cost reasons ?

Man I would be getting a CX bladder test ASAP if I had Haemturia and was middle aged, especially if a UTI was not identified as the cause. Also remember UTI's can be caused secondary to something else (ie bladder stones/cancerous tissue etc)


http://www.hollandhospital.org/cancer/bladdercancer.aspx

[NT001]

Id be interested to know if you have come across cxbladder by googleing these things NT,because I spent a fair amount of time trying to find any mention of it ,to no avail.
Thats when I started to be concerened with the marketing side of things(at least,in terms of the timeline)

No Skid, I haven't tried yet on this particular project. We only have the announcement at this stage and the scheme itself isn't running yet. A lot will depend on how well the site is designed to be picked up by the search engines when they are actually soliciting orders. But it does worry me a bit if cxbladder isn't showing up. I would say PEB needs to get some expert website advice. Some website designers are great at making things look pretty but less so on the finer points of getting picked up by websearch crawlers.

[davflaws]

Superb post davflaws and thank you for such a first hand insight to bladder cancer and its detection.
All the very best to recovery.

There is no recovery. The nice thing about it from a medical accountant's point of view is that it won't kill me and my bladder wall will almost certainly keep growing little polyps and the urology team will keep zapping them off until I cark it from something else.

From a PEB shareholder's point of view, if cxbladder becomes part of the gold standard, we can look forward to 3 tests a year for twenty years from me alone.

And to answer an earlier post - no. When I started pissing black (about 10.30pm) I resolved to go to my GP next day. An hour later when I couldn't piss at all - I needed to be catheterised, not tested.

[Minerbarejet]

I would venture to suggest it may not belong before a few thousand people in the States who have a medical problem (or are concerned about a suspected medical problem) in this area will have googled such words and phrases as haematuria, blood in urine and bladder cancer and come across the DYI package offered by PEB, and even though it presumably won't be available to them (yet), they'll be asking their GP or urologist about it.

One thing they'll see is that it's got approvals from medical regulators in a country with high standards, so it's reputable, unlike a lot of stuff that can be ordered by email, and backed up by an informative website. And they'll also be able to tell their medical advisers it is actually available in the US. Could be quite a smart move for marketing in the US, not necessarily an admission of failure there. A certain amount depends on how well the metadata has been constructed into the PEB site and how well it gets picked up by Google, Yahoo etc.

It's clearly taken a while to get this project up and running with these approvals, so obviously well planned and thought through, I would say. And if PEB have kept this under wraps prior to the announcement, who knows what other surprises may be in the pipeline?
And presumably the next step is FDA approval in the US in a few months time to allow the US online sales to start. Seems like they are getting them in a pincer movement, online sales patients prodding urologists backed up with actual sales people out there extolling the benefits.
Smart move trying the online activity out here first.

[MAC]

And presumably the next step is FDA approval in the US in a few months time to allow the US online sales to start. Seems like they are getting them in a pincer movement, online sales patients prodding urologists backed up with actual sales people out there extolling the benefits.
Smart move trying the online activity out here first.

The Cxbladder website is a dot com but presumably it's a NZ based server, and it's smothered with Pacific Edge US sales contact phone numbers. Presumably this will heavily link with the e-commerce site and visa versa for all in the US to follow.

The US is where Pacific Edge will prosper and they have been using urine based diagnostic tests in the US for much much longer than in NZ, the concept is perhaps more entrenched and further along, up to 10 years of use in the case of NMP22.

Now that Cxbladder has come along which is superior to cytology, rather than inferior like NMP22 and the other products, it may well favour a much stronger pick up rate or a jump in uptake whilst existing diagnostic test users consider a switch over to Pacific Edge.

With the aim being a humble 10% US market share after five years, they may get a few percent off the competition from the get go in the first couple of years, and the market itself is growing at 3% per annum.

Just adding some perspective, good things take, well five years not five months.

[blobbles]

I tend to agree with the doctors in today's news article. And I severely disagree with Balance's doctors comparison to pregnancy test. Why?

Pregnancy is binary. You are pregnant or you are not. This is a piece of information that you want to have a binary answer on. Usually a woman would get a pregnancy test if she is trying to conceive or if her periods are regular and suddenly she missed one and she is sexually active. She then wants to know if she is pregnant and if she is not, she doesn't really about missing her cycle once or it coming a bit late, because these things happen and it is not a symptom of a major health problem.

However, what is wrong with you, if anything, when you have blood in your urine is NOT binary. It is not a "I don't have bladder cancer, therefore its all good and I don't have anything to worry about" result. Hematuria has many causes and seeing a doctor to test the most common ones is smart. Getting a test online to make sure you don't have bladder cancer first, awaiting the results (which will most likely tell you that you don't), then going to the doctor, is folly. In the time your waiting for the test, the thing causing your hematuria could get worse and you are sitting around waiting for a result that only affects 5% of cases. Then you end up going to the doctor when the test comes back negative and they find a severely inflamed bladder (or some other problem) which they could have treated easily before but now is much more difficult.

That is why I don't like the idea of people getting the test online, at least for their first port of call. Sure, offer it to those who have had bladder cancer and want to stay on top of it. At that stage they will be fully informed when it comes to bladder cancer etc, should know the process for testing their pee and will have a good relationship with their urologist if any anomalies come out. But I think its pretty irresponsible for Pacific Edge to open this up to first timers. They should be saying to people that have hematuria "First, go to a GP and get them to test you for all the other causes and get them to do an actual consultation, so you know the common causes and possible outcome properly. If you are still worried about having bladder cancer after that, we will send our test to the doctor who can oversee that the test is administered correctly the first time. If you wish to continue to be tested, you can then do that from home."

[AndyLP]

Huh? Bladder cancer is binary. Yes there are differing grades, but you either have it or you don't.
While pregnancy is a common cause of missed periods, it is by no means the only cause. Excessive weight loss or gain, increased emotional stress, over exercise, illness, medicines and hormone problems.
One does not just buy cxbladder at the supermarket. And a health professional is kept in the loop. What's the problem.

[blobbles]

Huh? Bladder cancer is binary. Yes there are differing grades, but you either have it or you don't.
While pregnancy is a common cause of missed periods, it is by no means the only cause. Excessive weight loss or gain, increased emotional stress, over exercise, illness, medicines and hormone problems.
One does not just buy cxbladder at the supermarket. And a health professional is kept in the loop. What's the problem.

Sure, bladder cancer is binary(ish). But the causes of hematuria are NOT and they are what prompts you to go out and get a test. They are also fairly serious, whereas the cause of missed periods generally is not. Then the doctor is used as an endpoint to interpret the test results for you. Why? Because the results are complex, not binary Y/N answer they are indicative cancer cell counts which need a specialist to read if you don't know anything about bladder cancer... and anyway, did you even tell the doctor you had hematuria before asking Pacific Edge to tell them the results of the test?

I can just imagine someone having hematuria, using doctor google to see what could cause it, seeing the words "CANCER" and freaking out. They want to be absolutely sure its not because they are frankly as freaked out as possible now, but wait, there is the Pacific Edge site which says they can do a simple, fast at home test to see if they have cancer. Sweet! Off they go, order the test. It arrives 2 days later (meanwhile hematuria is continuing), they pee in the cup, send it off to Pacific Edge. Three/four days later they get a call from the doctor (hematuria occurring still) who says "Hey, I just got some bladder cancer test results for you? What's happening?". At that point they tell the doc about the hematuria. The doctor says "You have been pissing blood for 5 days and not come to a doctor??? Are you MAD? Get to the emergency room!". Ends up being an inflammation, but now its severe and requires a hell of a lot more than it did before, considerably more expenses and pain are incurred.

At that point the patient has paid for a useless Bladder Cancer test. While this might sound good in terms of sales for CxBladder, I am sure it will leave a sour taste in the mouth of those who paid for it. This is why, for me, it sounds irresponsible.

It is good in terms of a person who formerly had bladder cancer being able to do recurring tests, brilliant for them as it should give early detection of recurrence. But I hope to hell they don't market it to first timers (which they haven't yet seemed to distinguish) because you will be freaking people out for nothing except 5% of the time.

[Beagle]

And after a couple of years lurking I have finally been flushed into the open.

I have bladder cancer. Haematuria got worse and worse over a week but as I had been eating beetroot I didn't worry until I peed black after the Japan Tonga game during the last world cup. Then I blocked up and had an A&E drama, admission, ultrasound scan and next day removal of a 2cm tumour which was attached to the bladder wall on a stalk which had not invaded the muscle layer. All good.

But my bladder wall grows them, and every 3 or 4 months I go to a clinic for a flexible cystoscopy. It takes about 15 mins. I lie on a gurney (sans pants) on a drawsheet. A nurse busies herself with a trolley, gloves, savlon etc, then takes my penis (respectfully) and squirts some anaesthetic jelly into my urethra, then puts a clip on my glans (gently) to stop it leaking out and gets on with preparing the cystoscopy gear.

The urologist comes in and unclips me and (very smoothly) slides the cystoscope up my urethra. We both watch progress on the big screen on the wall. Looks neat! We get to my prostate very quickly. From the inside it looks like a couple of rounded ridges on the bottom side of my urethra, with the urethra being squeezed into the "bumcrack" between them - all in glorious pink with the odd blood vessel darker. Going past the prostate has never been even slightly uncomfortable. Just past it is the sphincter at the bottom of my bladder. Folded and wrinkled. The urologist usually asks me to cough at this point but I don't - because the two or three times I have it has resulted in about half a second of minor discomfort. Now I just watch as he pokes the end of the cystoscope against the sphincter and it opens and then we are in my bladder. YAY!

He looks around at a variety of magnifications, and sometimes spots a little bright red spot (0.5-2mm). Zooming in on that, we see a pink coral polyp or small bunch of raw sausages (nothing to do with the Mad Butcher)attached to the bladder wall and waving around in the sea of urine.

So I get booked for a Trans Urethral Removal of Bladder Tumour (TURBT), and a few months later go to Hospital overnight for a GA and a procedure that takes about 15 min and leaves me with slight soreness on the end of my urethra for about 24 hrs. No big deal.

So I talked to the urologist. I gave him **** about patch protection (very brave while he's holing my member). He told me that his not using cxbladder is nothing to do with any $s that go to him. He is on salary. He says he doesn't use it because he carries the can for anything that goes wrong, that the Mk1 eyeball is still the gold standard for investigating bladder tumours, and that he sees no point in testing me with cxbladder and then using a cystoscope because he wants to be sure. He is also not convinced that the cost of using cxbladder stacks up well against the marginal cost of another cystoscopy (I am sure he is wrong - so is the nurse). He would have to be convinced that a protocol involving the use of cxbladder had become the gold stndard before he was prepared to use it. He sees its application in being in routine screening in groups at particular occupational risk (he mentioned people mining heavy metals)

I hope this helps

Thanks heaps mate. That's helped me a lot as the cystoscopy procedure doesn't sound too bad, certainly not as bad as I'd blown it up in my mind to be. Sorry to hear of your ongoing problem with bladder cancer recurring. I guess its something you learn to cope with ?

[psychic]

I'm left wondering how this "direct to patient" step with Cxbladder Detect is going to help in securing the much needed support of Urologists right now.

Nevermind that the potential product "Cxbladder Triage" aims to reduce those patients requiring a full evaluation from 80% to 20% ....

Is this as gutsy as it maybe seems?

[Goldstein]

9[/B] years on since the first post.

That's a bit harsh snapiti. They have come a long way with labs built, product accreditation, etc. IMHO they have done exceptionally well. The sales to date have been lacking with little market commentary by the executive or board - and this is a concern to me.

disc: sold out a while ago, but still watching with interest

[skid]

Sure, bladder cancer is binary(ish). But the causes of hematuria are NOT and they are what prompts you to go out and get a test. They are also fairly serious, whereas the cause of missed periods generally is not. Then the doctor is used as an endpoint to interpret the test results for you. Why? Because the results are complex, not binary Y/N answer they are indicative cancer cell counts which need a specialist to read if you don't know anything about bladder cancer... and anyway, did you even tell the doctor you had hematuria before asking Pacific Edge to tell them the results of the test?

I can just imagine someone having hematuria, using doctor google to see what could cause it, seeing the words "CANCER" and freaking out. They want to be absolutely sure its not because they are frankly as freaked out as possible now, but wait, there is the Pacific Edge site which says they can do a simple, fast at home test to see if they have cancer. Sweet! Off they go, order the test. It arrives 2 days later (meanwhile hematuria is continuing), they pee in the cup, send it off to Pacific Edge. Three/four days later they get a call from the doctor (hematuria occurring still) who says "Hey, I just got some bladder cancer test results for you? What's happening?". At that point they tell the doc about the hematuria. The doctor says "You have been pissing blood for 5 days and not come to a doctor??? Are you MAD? Get to the emergency room!". Ends up being an inflammation, but now its severe and requires a hell of a lot more than it did before, considerably more expenses and pain are incurred.

At that point the patient has paid for a useless Bladder Cancer test. While this might sound good in terms of sales for CxBladder, I am sure it will leave a sour taste in the mouth of those who paid for it. This is why, for me, it sounds irresponsible.

It is good in terms of a person who formerly had bladder cancer being able to do recurring tests, brilliant for them as it should give early detection of recurrence. But I hope to hell they don't market it to first timers (which they haven't yet seemed to distinguish) because you will be freaking people out for nothing except 5% of the time.

I totally agree--America is no place to be taking chances on any sort of perceived cock up (the land of mega suet's) Bypassing the doctor is dangerous stuff--IMO they should be working WITH doctors (and insurance co.s etc) comparing bladder cancer with pregnancy is not being realistic.

[skid]

Im still in Canada and have gotten opinions on breaking into the American market in the medical field,but nothing specific on PEB
Ive given their name to my brother in law who works for Bristal Meyers and hopefully he can run it past the guys in Medical (he's in finance)
His general opinion so far is that to enter the American medical market,in most cases it is necessary to have a partner who is already established in order to get your product out there (and compete with the inevitable repercussions from competitors,protecting their market)

I think ,by now,we all know alot about the product,but unfortunately,most of us are lacking in knowledge of the US market ,and what is required in terms of marketing the product.

Ill update if and when I get any details

[Minerbarejet]

There is an Edison report out on Pacific Edge in case anyone is interested.

[AndyLP]

There is an Edison report out on Pacific Edge in case anyone is interested.

Miner, is the 1 page PDF the extent of the research? Where's the rest!

[winner69]

Miner, is the 1 page PDF the extent of the research? Where's the rest!

You need to ask those who 'requested' the research, prob a group of sophisticated investors. There is a more detailed one in existence but prob work in progress still and for public consumption

Valuation will be in cooee of $1.70

Pure speculation. No links to support this.