PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[nextbigthing]

It has been a very positive year for PEB as proven by our income statements;

Sales of CXBladder $15000
Refund from Oneroom $30000

Management see excellent growth next year, as we're hoping to use Oneroom twice next year leading to a doubling of these revenues


Disc) Lighten up PEB bulls it's just a joke

[Xerof]

Whoops, wrong thread. Sorry there is no similarity between chips for GPS and test tubes. My apologies

you could delete the post if you really wanted to Winner :D

Could someone post if they see the replay has become available please. Hopefully it covers questiontime and has close-ups for reading body language and eye shifting

[winner69]

you could delete the post if you really wanted to Winner :D

Could someone post if they see the replay has become available please. Hopefully it covers questiontime and has close-ups for reading body language and eye shifting

They put the presentations and speeches up but no movie yet

[Schrodinger]

Some analysts in the USA employ body language experts to
analyse the CEO during an earnings announcement in the hope they can actually work out what is happening. Most of these events are pure spin.

Question for the serious investors: what exactly was announced for expected earnings results or was this another smoke and mirror exercise by PEB?

[MAC]

Base Case Valuation: FY15 $1.85

Happy as always to further share and compare analysis, research and replication offline with those whom may have a genuine interest in doing so.

Sensitivity Analysis:



Base Case (as below)
$1.85


De-risked Valuation WACC 10.0%
$2.50


High Risk Case WACC 13.5%
$1.50


Revenue Target One Year Early (FY18 NZ$100M)
$2.30


Revenue Target One Year Late (FY20 NZ$100M)
$1.50


Base Case Basis:

DCF, WACC 12.0%, 30yr PG 3.0%, NZ$100M in revenues at FY19 as affirmed by Pacific Edge, profitability by HY16, gross margins 81% as estimated by Pacific Edge, no significant capital outlay required until laboratory extensions are needed $6M at HY20 and $6M at FY22, long run exchange rate USD0.85. This base case does not include revenues from non commercialised pipeline products presently within development, nor does it include a valuation of patents and non commercialised IP.

[Carpenterjoe]

Just read the latest Cellmid newsletter,

The test is commercially available and is now generating early revenues in Australia, New Zealand and most significantly in the USA.

Good to see some Australian sales.

[psychic]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/313336/pacific-edge-shareholders-told-be-patient

[winner69]

Suppose the only excitement round here for a while will be the much anticipated release of the investor commissioned Edison report

Jeez they better do better than the 'rumoured' $1.40/$1.70 range seeing MAC has $1.85 on it now.

[Balance]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/313336/pacific-edge-shareholders-told-be-patient

Wow, "Chief executive David Darling said while the company's US lab could handle 260,000 tests at present, it could be expanded to meet the opportunity of two million tests.

''It's the scale and accessibility which is paramount to success,'' he said."

Can't wait for the market to open.

[winner69]

Ok, so this does actually contain information that I would consider new and potentially useful. Nice.

I think we need to focus on this 2 million tests figure .......better than tens if thousands

What's 2,000,000 tests worth in revenues?

[psychic]

Included in key targets this year were revenue growth from the US, in which Dr Darling expected cashflow to offset annual losses.

[BigBob]

And no, this wasn't the bit that I deemed new or interesting :cool:

Maybe this bit then...:

Included in key targets this year were revenue growth from the US, in which Dr Darling expected cashflow to offset annual losses.

However, the word "against" might have been missed out in which case it doesn't sound that interesting....

[winner69]

Maybe this bit then...:

Included in key targets this year were revenue growth from the US, in which Dr Darling expected cashflow to offset annual losses.

However, the word "against" might have been missed out in which case it doesn't sound that interesting....

Doesn't that mean profit this year?

[psychic]

I'm a wee bit cautious these days about what is reported .... so um....

[Minerbarejet]

Dont forget the sales up dates at HY and FY for the next 4 to 5 years, next one is November, thats only three months away. Isnt it exciting.
Three more months of scintillating argument, snappy repartee, projections, banter, confusion, analysis and insight.
Reckon we could break the 15000 posts barrier by then.:)

[Dentie]

Really did she say that..... are you sure........sorry to say but there has been 3 other bio markers commercially available in the US over the last 20 years targeting bladder cancer so unfortunately if Jacquis said that she is talking a load of s%&t.
There are at least 2 that are still being sold commercially to urologist.
It would be very disappointing if she is making up stories to talk the product up.
Did anyone else hear this.

The big thing that I brought away with me from the AGM is there a lot on here who are simply over thinking things. It really isn't that hard. Either you believe in what they are doing (in the open & behind the scenes) - or you don't! The AGM is the AGM and what was publicised during the meeting was enough for me to believe they are on track with what they have stated - contrary to what the conspiracists and bears etc would have us believe. They are simply carrying out their stated plan and the bits I went to listen for - were clearly stated.

However - the REAL GOLD came at the after match. And no, I am not going to put it on here - simply to have it turned into a target.

Hope you got some fish the other day Snapiti.

[MAC]

MAC, you FX rate is way too high. You can at least be bullish on that matter!

Because the five year target is provided by Pacific Edge in NZD, we are largley all using their forward exchange rate, whatever that may be. The rest is incidentals really, at 0.85 that's fine.

[nextbigthing]

what worries me is that this gives the impression they will build the additional capacity earlier than later. Have they ever heard of JIT manufacturing? And no, this wasn't the bit that I deemed new or interesting :cool:

Yeah that's right NG. If those pesky cancer sufferers could just organize themselves to get cancer at a uniform rate of 50 patients per day then we could really crank the efficiencies of the lab using JIT and extract more from them!

[barney]

The big thing that I brought away with me from the AGM is there a lot on here who are simply over thinking things. It really isn't that hard. Either you believe in what they are doing (in the open & behind the scenes) - or you don't! The AGM is the AGM and what was publicised during the meeting was enough for me to believe they are on track with what they have stated - contrary to what the conspiracists and bears etc would have us believe. They are simply carrying out their stated plan and the bits I went to listen for - were clearly stated.

However - the REAL GOLD came at the after match. And no, I am not going to put it on here - simply to have it turned into a target.

Hope you got some fish the other day Snapiti.

At last, a rational view. Cheers Dentie.

[nextbigthing]

Yeah, you are right. They should just go out RIGHT NOW and build a lab with 9 times the capacity of the current one. That would be a really smart decision and not at all a waste of precious capital.

Don't be silly NG. They never said they're about to go out and do this. Give them some credit. They're simply assaying they'll need to do it when the time comes. Whenever that may be :)

[Tsuba]

Yes more ducking and diving amongst the trenches. Lobbing grenades. White flags and maybe even a bit of side swapping A Miner. :drool: ( in reference to #11113 )

[MAC]

What fixed costs are you assuming in your DCF, MAC?

It’s a relatively a scalable product without much incremental capital cost. Pacific Edge in the past have estimated gross margins at 81%.

The US and backup NZ CLIA labs are fully constructed and paid for already, one must though allow for additional lab equipment as sales grow, but that is not great in the big picture. As a conservative measure I’ve also allowed NZ$12M for new laboratory construction beyond FY19, as I feel that if Pacific Edge do hit the five year target they will probably make a decicion to build and expand further at that point in time.

[nextbigthing]

You were the one that started it

Are you going to tell on me to Mum?!

Chill out NG I'm just having you on :) . A more appropriate reply from me perhaps would have been 'I'm not sure JIT would be practical in this scenario NG however I saw nothing that indicated they are about to expand the lab now so don't worry about wasted capital :)

[Dentie]

I'd be interested to know how much skin you all have in the game. Perhaps we could use the following categories to gauge people's actual commitment to this?

Small: 0 - 999 shares
Medium: 1,000 - 9,999 shares
Large: 10,000 - 99,999 shares
XL: 100,000+ shares

I'll bet most, if not all, of the positive holders who believe in what our Company is trying to achieve are in the "Large to XL" size!

[Dentie]

yep lots of fish, water was bloody cold.
No offence intended Dentie but of course you were going to hear what you wanted to hear at the AGM.
Given there are no fundamentals to support the company(yet) these speeches are particularly well rehearsed and have a target audience.

How can you rehearse for questions that might be asked at the after match??

[Okebw]

I'd be interested to know how much skin you all have in the game. Perhaps we could use the following categories to gauge people's actual commitment to this?

Small: 0 - 999 shares
Medium: 1,000 - 9,999 shares
Large: 10,000 - 99,999 shares
XL: 100,000+ shares

Medium. Though it's now on par with the majority of my holdings

[winner69]

Nice little announcement to the NZX this morning.

Wonder if the movie files have been lost in the fiasco ....never to be found

[Dentie]

Well, let's hear it then!

I'm XL.

Yeah - we know you are an XL NG. I just made simple statement that doesn't need to be followed up.

[Minerbarejet]

I'd be interested to know how much skin you all have in the game. Perhaps we could use the following categories to gauge people's actual commitment to this?

Small: 0 - 999 shares
Medium: 1,000 - 9,999 shares
Large: 10,000 - 99,999 shares
XL: 100,000+ shares
I would be most interested to learn how 0 constitutes a small holding in PEB
Do you also require multiples of 100,000 to be 2XL, 3XL, etc.
I really dont think its necessary to know how much others have in the game, perhaps just a simple: Disc: hold, is enough surely.
Disc: Hold

[Dentie]

come on Dentie, these guys have been around a while now.
They are highly intelligent and experienced people who have done this many times before so I am sure they would have been will aware of what questions to expect.

You've been round a bit too Snaps so you would (should) know there is more to this game than just words (that may, or may not have been rehearsed).

[Dentie]

I would be most interested to learn how 0 constitutes a small holding in PEB
Do you also require multiples of 100,000 to be 2XL, 3XL, etc.
I really dont think its necessary to know how much others have in the game, perhaps just a simple: Disc: hold, is enough surely.
Disc: Hold

Disc: Hold!

[winner69]

Depending on how the squiggly line is going I've been small, medium, large and XL

And the company did get 15 grand of my cash a while ago

[Balance]

Patience, patience and more patience.

That is kind of what PEB is about now - according to the directors and management of PEB.

Meanwhile, they are not prepared to be forthcoming with regular updates (like DIL in its earlier years) to provide shareholders and investors a feel of how they are going and track their performance. Just be patient and trust them.

Not for me, I have seen and experienced too many of the 'trust us, we know what we are doing' directors and management over the decades - all care and no transparency/accountability.

I have reduced my stake hugely and I believe there will be plenty of opportunities in the years ahead to get reset in PEB if they do deliver.

Judging by the comments from the AGM, I would say they would not be shy to raise more capital to 'leverage' off their sales 'success'.

Good luck to all the XL shareholders and for my 'Large' shareholding , here's hoping they deliver and I look forward to investing more when they deliver.

[Hoop]

Just plotted a PEB/XRO chart over past year. Very interesting info. Both are nearing their bottoming levels pre-bubble days. As per bubble tgeory, once the bubble deflates prices ALWAYS go back to pre-bubble levels. Adjusted for cap raising, this would be in the 50-60 cent range.

Also interesting to note both started siaring in exactly the same week on good news.

Question is, will XRO and PEB seperare now? One has a buy/$1.15 forecast and the other a sell/$18.25 forecast. Better hope PEB doesn't follow XRO downwards if so!

Chartwise PEB is the best it has looked for 6 months now...Is it bottoming out?

Disc: small investor** ..have 0 shares :D

**

I'd be interested to know how much skin you all have in the game. Perhaps we could use the following categories to gauge people's actual commitment to this?

Small: 0 - 999 shares
Medium: 1,000 - 9,999 shares
Large: 10,000 - 99,999 shares
XL: 100,000+ shares

[MAC]

Capital costs as above, COGS as estimated by Pacific Edge, royalties to Cellmid outside of COGS, corporate governance, and all the usual accountable items. As far as modelling goes it’s really not a particularly complex exercise to replicate if one references and applies company provided targets.

The Edison effort though may be a little more complex and interesting, as unlike the local brokers and investors, they have their own specialist within sector analysts basedin the UK and US. They may very well build a model based on independent market research and an estimate of the efficacy of Cxbladder within that market, rather than building a model based on company estimated targets.

[Dentie]

Patience, patience and more patience.

That is kind of what PEB is about now - according to the directors and management of PEB.

Meanwhile, they are not prepared to be forthcoming with regular updates (like DIL in its earlier years) to provide shareholders and investors a feel of how they are going and track their performance. Just be patient and trust them.

This was raised with CS & DD Balance and they assured the meeting they have taken that on board and will look to better themselves in this regard.

[Bobcat.]

Meanwhile, every offer that gets placed at 72c is soon after matched by a buyer placing at the same price a larger bid. Fight it out boys.

I agree with Hoop that technically PEB is now looking like the bulls are more in control (for the first time this year!) with an upward trendline in the making. This month's foot and knee pattern has held firm (at 62c and 64c) and the sharp lift through 70c yesterday has not been reversed by any negative sentiment or cynicism arising from investor reaction to the AGM.

Like other posters, I too am not impressed by Management reluctance to be transparent regarding Sales figures for the past three months (which would not be hard to dig out) and their either arrogant or (more kindly) naive attitude towards disgruntled investors, expecting us to effectively suck it up and simply trust them...but this pup may now have some legs to get up a lot closer to $1...in spite of its already inflated Market Cap.

Discl: holding, but ready to sell on any indicated weakness.

[Beagle]

Patience, patience and more patience.

That is kind of what PEB is about now - according to the directors and management of PEB.

Meanwhile, they are not prepared to be forthcoming with regular updates (like DIL in its earlier years) to provide shareholders and investors a feel of how they are going and track their performance. Just be patient and trust them.

Not for me, I have seen and experienced too many of the 'trust us, we know what we are doing' directors and management over the decades - all care and no transparency/accountability.

I have reduced my stake hugely and I believe there will be plenty of opportunities in the years ahead to get reset in PEB if they do deliver.

Judging by the comments from the AGM, I would say they would not be shy to raise more capital to 'leverage' off their sales 'success'.

Good luck to all the XL shareholders and for my 'Large' shareholding , here's hoping they deliver and I look forward to investing more when they deliver.

Well said.


sorry Dentie but for me the PEB board are just like a batsmen who says"it's a good pitch so if I play well and things go my way I will get a century" but currently he is sitting on 1 not out.
No real result until the runs are on the board.... still only an investment in hope and promise.
Still a highly speculative investment and there is nothing wrong with having a small portion of your portfolio in these sort of stocks.
When I see them hit one over the boundary fence and score a six I'll get interested again and not before.
With some previously alleged controversial director behaviour ("pump and dump") I'd be very cautious giving these guys too much trust.Trust is earned, not given.

[skid]

Chartwise PEB is the best it has looked for 6 months now...Is it bottoming out?

Disc: small investor** ..have 0 shares :D

**

Well I jumped in, (65) purely from the FA prospective that,before all the hype,I reckon this is about where it should have been (70s)--but it is good to hear your TA opinion as well Hoop and BC.

I think its time to start thinking of this co as hopefully a solid slow growth co with potential and not some get rich quick scheme.

This is not a product that Americans are going to hear about and rush out and buy(like the latest tech toy)

Its a medical test that will need time to hopefully be successful and save some lives at the same time if the management are up to scratch--Thats where Ive given them the benefit of the doubt at this price ,at this point in time.

Up to the next sales figures ,it will most likely depend on whether SH and institutions agree or if they get someone on board like a US co or insurance outfit who would spike sales along

[winner69]

PEB heading back to 90 plus .....nice

Just failed last time ...this time will be different methinks

Hope the sermon is a rip roarer this arvo.


Yes the sermon was a rip roarer and is doing its job. Nice touch putting a good story on the NZX this morning as well

Has to 90 cents plus this time around

One XL whoopee

[klid]

Up to 75 now. Seems forced. Trying to get momo traders out into the open now?

Wowow that is looking good!
Meanwhile, GEO is almost dead.

PS, I am.. "large", apparently :)

[goldfish]

Looks like I sold a bit soon, good luck to holders.

[NT001]

Leanne Graham can come work for Mooses'R'Us if her venture fails. :D

This raises an important issue that has been troubling me for some time: the plural of moose. Wiktiionary has this to say:

The use of moose in the plural is sometimes problematic. The regularly formed plural, mooses (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/mooses#English), is by now rare and its use may be regarded as irksome and uneuphonious. The form meese (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/meese#English)—formed by analogy with goose (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/goose#English) → geese (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/geese#English)—will in most cases be greeted with a snigger, and is thus generally only appropriate in humorous contexts; even pragmatics (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/pragmatics) notwithstanding, because moose has Algonquian origins—wholly unrelated to the Germanic roots of goose, on whose pattern the plural meese is formed—an umlaut (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/umlaut) plural form is etymologically inconsistent. The etymologically consistent plural form would be *mosinee,[2] (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/moose#cite_note-INiM-etpl-2) but this plural form sees no use in English. In ordinary common usage, moose is treated as an invariant noun (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/invariant_noun), which means its plural is also moose (as with the names of many animals, such as deer (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/deer#English) and fish (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/fish#English), which are also invariant); however, this usage can sometimes be considered stilted when a group of more than one moose are considered individually, in which case avoidance of the plural may be the best option, necessitating the employment of a circumlocution (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/circumlocution).

Sorry if you've heard all this before. Fortunately there is only one moosie (not 900).

[Poet]

This raises an important issue that has been troubling me for some time: the plural of moose. Wiktiionary has this to say:

The use of moose in the plural is sometimes problematic. The regularly formed plural, mooses (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/mooses#English), is by now rare and its use may be regarded as irksome and uneuphonious. The form meese (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/meese#English)—formed by analogy with goose (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/goose#English) → geese (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/geese#English)—will in most cases be greeted with a snigger, and is thus generally only appropriate in humorous contexts; even pragmatics (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/pragmatics) notwithstanding, because moose has Algonquian origins—wholly unrelated to the Germanic roots of goose, on whose pattern the plural meese is formed—an umlaut (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/umlaut) plural form is etymologically inconsistent. The etymologically consistent plural form would be *mosinee,[2] (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/moose#cite_note-INiM-etpl-2) but this plural form sees no use in English. In ordinary common usage, moose is treated as an invariant noun (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/invariant_noun), which means its plural is also moose (as with the names of many animals, such as deer (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/deer#English) and fish (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/fish#English), which are also invariant); however, this usage can sometimes be considered stilted when a group of more than one moose are considered individually, in which case avoidance of the plural may be the best option, necessitating the employment of a circumlocution (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/circumlocution).

Sorry if you've heard all this before. Fortunately there is only one moosie (not 900).

Reminds me of the zookeeper who was tasked with ordering a pair of hippos. He didn't know what the correct plural was so wrote as follows:

Dear animal supplies, please accept my order for a hippopotamus to be delivered c/o London Zoo.

Oh...and while you are at it, please send another one as well.

[Copper]

Reminds me of the zookeeper who was tasked with ordering a pair of hippos. He didn't know what the correct plural was so wrote as follows:

Dear animal supplies, please accept my order for a hippopotamus to be delivered c/o London Zoo.

Oh...and while you are at it, please send another one as well.
That is stunning..has stopped this thread in its tracks.Good on you......

[Copper]

To NT 001 .....you caused all this fun.A brilliant resume of a Moosie double. As complex and wise as he is despite all his 28 years.Is that old for a Moose??? Cheers

[Xerof]

is the movie available anywhere yet, or do we have to wait for PEB II next year?

and moosie you sensitive creature, I was pulling your antler with the sausage meat response to your streaking threat :)

[psychic]

is the movie available anywhere yet, or do we have to wait for PEB II next year?

and moosie you sensitive creature, I was pulling your antler with the sausage meat response to your streaking threat :)

Um, in short, aaaagh.... no.

Understand in addition to streaming issues, it was not recorded on site

You must understand Xerof, this stuff is highly technical ....

But we did at least see the lady take her puffer jacket off right?

[Defater]

Have had this email response from One Room....

"We ran a full trial on location prior to this event which functioned perfectly. We also assisted Dunedin Public Art Gallery to have their network upgraded. We are still working through what triggered the camera failures on location, it may or may not have been related to bandwidth stability. One Room is taking full responsibility as we took lead for theproject.

I am working with all parties to try to pass as much content as possible through to the Shareholders as soon as we can. I will email and communicate again once we have had a chance to discuss things with the PEG team in the morning.

Please accept my apology for the loss of coverage today.

Yes, I am certainly in a dark and lonely room at present!

Regards,"

[Defater]

This is the second follow up email I had from One Room...

"Unfortunately due to a technical issue the video never made it to the One Room gateway and nor was it recorded on site for us to upload. I have been communicating with Pacific Edge andit seems the intention is to direct people to the NZX website where the transcripts and presentation content is available.https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/254217 (https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/254217)

A notice to this effect will be distributed to all PEB Shareholders.

We are very sorry that we were unable to bring you the stream/recording of the meeting. Despite efforts to minimise the risk of this happening, unfortunately it did and as the prime supplier for this service One Room must take full responsibility. This has been an inconvenience to you and frustrating for the team at Pacific Edge."

[Goldstein]

A cheap backup in case all else fails is to just record it on a mobile device and then upload to the One Room gateway.

It would look cheap and inferior, but waaaaaaaaaaaay better than nothing.

[Xerof]

But we did at least see the lady take her puffer jacket off right?

yes, and I'm sure I saw Hancocks' list of questions too. MAC had his laptop open, with a DCF spreadsheet on display. Balance seemed to be talking very animatedly into his iphone - probably to his broker preparing to sell.

a blurred figure shot across in front of the camera too, possibly a moose, as there was a quick staccato of gunfire shortly thereafter

pity about the movie - reckon it was planned to fail, to teach us to turn up in person next time

:t_up:

[NT001]

In other words it wasn't a network problem as we were initially told. The feed never even got near the network. I wonder if shareholder funds are being paid out to OneRoom. OneRoom accepts "full responsibility", as indeed it should, but PEB is also open to criticism if not actually culpable for (apparently) not even taking a record of what was said following the formal presentations. I have asked PEB what it plans to do to inform us of the Q&A sessions and Jackie's comments, but have not yet even had the courtesy of an acknowledgment, let alone an answer. Are listed companies not obligated to keep a record of discussion at their ASMs? I would have thought so. At any rate it would be sound practice.

[psychic]

yes, and I'm sure I saw Hancocks' list of questions too. MAC had his laptop open, with a DCF spreadsheet on display. Balance seemed to be talking very animatedly into his iphone - probably to his broker preparing to sell.

a blurred figure shot across in front of the camera too, possibly a moose, as there was a quick staccato of gunfire shortly thereafter

pity about the movie - reckon it was planned to fail, to teach us to turn up in person next time

:t_up:
Lol. Yes.
Hope we don't have similar problems with the rugby tonight!

[ziggy415]

A cheap backup in case all else fails is to just record it on a mobile device and then upload to the One Room gateway.

It would look cheap and inferior, but waaaaaaaaaaaay better than nothing.
one thing that seems to have elluded people is the fact that really nothing of substance was said at the meeting so nobody missed anything....that from a person with a small holding...zero(or should that be holding a small one):t_down:

[okay]

One room has applied to the companies office to have their name changed to Wallies Incorporated.

[winner69]

yes, and I'm sure I saw Hancocks' list of questions too. MAC had his laptop open, with a DCF spreadsheet on display. Balance seemed to be talking very animatedly into his iphone - probably to his broker preparing to sell.

:

Balance was secretly videoing proceedings

Now he has the only movie

[psychic]

Can't do any harm ..
PEB's AGM gets a mention on Urology Practice Management website

http://uropracticemanagement.com/upm-resources/in-the-news

"Building Presence in World's Largest Biomedical Market"

(No - I ain't got sky, waiting for delayed coverage on Prime)

[Snow Leopard]

Five weeks I was away and you guys wrote 981 posts (plus I guess a few Hancocks post & deletes).

And has anything worthy of note actually happened?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

dumb arse!
I will take that as a No then

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

I will take that as a No then

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

No dumb arse, a few things have happened while you away.

PEB had its ASM. All is on track to $100m sales in 5 full years.
They video'd the meeting.
Teased punters by mentioning the 2 million tests a year opportunity.
Hancocks deleted lots of posts but found time to buy 50,000 more shares
MAC revisited his spreadsheets and raised his valuation to $1.85
New Guy is XL
Balance sold some of his shares
Snapiti went spear fishing
Shareprice is about the same as when you left

So mate, lots has happened in your 5 weeks away

[nextbigthing]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/10417384/Drug-giant-incites-war-of-the-sexes

While not directly take to PEB, IMHO it gives a bit of an insight into what goes on trying to sell products in the medical world.

Welcome back PT

[robbo24]

No dumb arse, a few things have happened while you away.

PEB had its ASM. All is on track to $100m sales in 5 full years.
They video'd the meeting.
Teased punters by mentioning the 2 million tests a year opportunity.
Hancocks deleted lots of posts but found time to buy 50,000 more shares
MAC revisited his spreadsheets and raised his valuation to $1.85
New Guy is XL
Balance sold some of his shares
Snapiti went spear fishing
Shareprice is about the same as when you left

So mate, lots has happened in your 5 weeks away

Hahahahahaha!

[geo]

dumb arse!

Is that all you have to say Hancocks, you started this thread and lot's of posters hang onto your ever word?

[craic]

Sell the lot now and buy SPK with the cash. Collect 9cps dividend and after the due date, sell and buy back into PEB - if you are that thick. I forgot to mention the 60% inputted tas that should give you a further significant reward when you file your income tax return.

[Dentie]

Sell the lot now and buy SPK with the cash. Collect 9cps dividend and after the due date, sell and buy back into PEB - if you are that thick. I forgot to mention the 60% inputted tas that should give you a further significant reward when you file your income tax return.

This sounds like a great idea ... might just do this. Silly me. Thanks Craic.

[Balance]

Is that all you have to say Hancocks, you started this thread and lot's of posters hang onto your ever word?

One word - DYOR.

Gee whiz - there are those on this thread who actually seem to believe that investing is about following the sp up and down, and comments on a share trader site as indicative of where the sp and company are heading from a fundamental point of view.

Be thankful that there are those like Hancocks who are prepared to share views, information and research so that anyone can DYOR.

[Bobcat.]

I sold out at 73c last Friday after seeing that the lift to 75c (previous support, now resistance) did not hold.

My buy trigger is now 76c, which I cannot see PEB reaching any time soon. Perhaps November's report will pleasantly surprise...but I'm not holding my breath. We may see more downward pressure on the price before then.

BC

[Balance]

I sold out at 73c last Friday after seeing that the lift to 75c (previous support, now resistance) did not hold.

My buy trigger is now 76c, which I cannot see PEB reaching any time soon. Perhaps November's report will pleasantly surprise...but I'm not holding my breath. We may see more downward pressure on the price before then.

BC

Someone taking up your challenge - 76 cents coming up!

[geo]

One word - DYOR.

Gee whiz - there are those on this thread who actually seem to believe that investing is about following the sp up and down, and comments on a share trader site as indicative of where the sp and company are heading from a fundamental point of view.



Be thankful that there are those like Hancocks who are prepared to share views, information and research so that anyone can DYOR.

Yes I did my DYOR and sold out for a very good profit. I enjoyed Hancocks views and was wondering what his thoughts were at the meeting.

[MAC]

MAC, you can revise your conservative Forex cross numbers now the Kiwi is falling thick and fast right now as key support is broken. Yeehaw!

Yes it is good news for a lot of companies, although most like myself are probably valuing PEB based on their five year goal as provided by Pacific Edge in NZD. I'm applying an exchange rate for sensitivity analysis, the long run exchange rate assumption is really that chosen by Pacific Edge.

All bodes very well for PEB going forward if the NZD has peaked, happy to leave that presumption to all you forex traders out there, not my specialisation.

[Bobcat.]

Someone taking up your challenge - 76 cents coming up!

As I recall Balance - you also sold down at around 73c (to half of your holding, yes?). Do you also have an entry point for buying on the way up? Before I buy in again I'd want to see it close for the day with bids sitting at 75c or higher.

I suspect today's boost may have more to do with the fall in the NZD than in any improvement in PEB's fundamentals.

[MAC]

Undervalued stocks will return to value Bobcat, no change in already good fundamentals required.

[winner69]

Sell the lot now and buy SPK with the cash. Collect 9cps dividend and after the due date, sell and buy back into PEB - if you are that thick. I forgot to mention the 60% inputted tas that should give you a further significant reward when you file your income tax return.

Lets see how it turns out .....hypothetically anyway

Sold 100,000 (yes a XL) on open price at $0.73 = $73.000

Purchased 25,525 SPK at $2.86 on open.

So SPK dividend of $2,297 on record date of September 26th

Sell SPK then and buy back PEB

Worry about brokerage etc later

[MAC]

At the AGM David Darling told us at question time that PEDusa had been performing Cxbladder tests for patients with Medicare coverage, and that Medicare are holding payment in accrual (was I think the word he used) awaiting a contract signing.

The Pacific Edge website has advised us as below for well over a year now;

“Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder”

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/billing-policy/

There could well be quite a few tests accruing there now, all ready to be released as revenue at probably a yet to be negotiated price point.

It would be satisfying if Pacific Edge receive a Medicare contract signing prior to 30th September for inclusion of revenues within the HY15 reporting period, else, well even more revenue to be released at FY15 I guess.

[Balance]

As I recall Balance - you also sold down at around 73c (to half of your holding, yes?). Do you also have an entry point for buying on the way up? Before I buy in again I'd want to see it close for the day with bids sitting at 75c or higher.

I suspect today's boost may have more to do with the fall in the NZD than in any improvement in PEB's fundamentals.

I am comfortable with what I have left holding.

I will invest more again (or sell what's left) when there are further developments regarding sales traction with PEB. Happy to buy more at $1.25 if the developments show that it has upside to $5.00.

[MAC]

As an addendum, Medicare comprises the largest market segment, and unlike the private insurance segment there is only one effective ‘customer’ that being Medicare. Within the private insurance segment PEB need to win over one insurer at a time.

A contract signing might just step that revenue curve along, let’s see.

GOVERNMENTAL 50%
30% CMS (Medicare & Medicaid)
20% VA (Veterans association)

PRIVATE INSURANCE 45%
20% LUGS (Large Urology Groups)
5% Other Urology Practices
20% HMO (Health Maintenance Organisations)

OTHER 5%
5% OSHA (Occupational Health & Safety Associations)

[craic]

dividend of 2297 less approx $600 in fees for the buy and sell fees. Looks like a $1600 prfit on my figures - unless PEB goes mad in the interim and thats about as likely as John Key asking Dot Com around to dinner. I do this regularly with SPK on a 3cps differential.
You have lost more than the dividend already- really working well so far, hypothetically of course.:)

[Slam dunk]

dividend of 2297 less approx $600 in fees for the buy and sell fees. Looks like a $1600 prfit on my figures - unless PEB goes mad in the interim and thats about as likely as John Key asking Dot Com around to dinner. I do this regularly with SPK on a 3cps differential.

Won't your Spark share price go down ex-dividend though?

[winner69]

dividend of 2297 less approx $600 in fees for the buy and sell fees. Looks like a $1600 prfit on my figures - unless PEB goes mad in the interim and thats about as likely as John Key asking Dot Com around to dinner. I do this regularly with SPK on a 3cps differential.

Or SPK has something go wrong and the price collapses but ........

You left yourself open for that

[Yoda]

:confused:Again , im new to this, but doesn't the share price drop by the value of the dividend on the record date, so you would be selling them at a lower price and loose the value of the dividend, so make nil? At least thats what just happened to PGW. Happy to be corrected..... Just learning

[craic]

Watch and see. If you sell the day after the record date, it is highly unlikely that they will drop anything like the amount of the dividend. I got smart last year and sold on a high the day before the record date, expecting to buy back at a price lower than the dividend and thus make an equivalent amount to the dividend or more. The price hardly moved and all I did was lose the dividend. Keep an eye on the numbers this time and you will be surprised. I have a large holding of spk on the block at present for 293cps and if they go I will expect to buy back before the record date at 290cps.
:confused:Again , im new to this, but doesn't the share price drop by the value of the dividend on the record date, so you would be selling them at a lower price and loose the value of the dividend, so make nil? At least thats what just happened to PGW. Happy to be corrected..... Just learning

[Xerof]

Fecken thread hi-jacked again. No wonder Hancocks et al don't bother anymore

[BigBob]

Watch and see. If you sell the day after the record date, it is highly unlikely that they will drop anything like the amount of the dividend. I got smart last year and sold on a high the day before the record date, expecting to buy back at a price lower than the dividend and thus make an equivalent amount to the dividend or more. The price hardly moved and all I did was lose the dividend. Keep an eye on the numbers this time and you will be surprised. I have a large holding of spk on the block at present for 293cps and if they go I will expect to buy back before the record date at 290cps.

And what has this got to do with PEB....? Maybe you guys can take your chitchat somewhere else....!

[craic]

Sorry but the worth of a share is in inverse proportion to the number of pages/speed of post and in this case with over 740 pages and 11,205 posts without a cent of profit - or should that be a scent of profit? anywhere you should appreciate the efforts of outsiders to rescue you - too much time in all that hot air is bad for you.
Fecken thread hi-jacked again. No wonder Hancocks et al don't bother anymore

[winner69]

Sorry but the worth of a share is in inverse proportion to the number of pages/speed of post and in this case with over 740 pages and 11,205 posts without a cent of profit - or should that be a scent of profit? anywhere you should appreciate the efforts of outsiders to rescue you - too much time in all that hot air is bad for you.

And Hancocks has made only 8 of those 11,206 posts (according to the counter)

[Whipmoney]

Yes I got it wrong

There is definitely NO similarity between Rakon and PEB

As Mr P says spooky eh

Why would there be any correlation whatsoever other than that arising from being listed on the same market?

[Poet]

Trading Halt
https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/254465

[MAC]

Well done to you Parry, years of dedication and hard work well recognised;

http://www.otago.ac.nz/otagobulletin/news/otago077914.html

[Balance]

Well done to you Parry, years of dedication and hard work well recognised;

http://www.otago.ac.nz/otagobulletin/news/otago077914.html

Congratulations and it is a well deserved recognition of the excellent work the dedicated researchers at our universities are doing.

[whatsup]

Someone likes PEB today .81 and building !!

[Slam dunk]

AGAIN!!!! Just like BLT! 10:03 am release after trades have already been through! Unbelievable!!!

GET YOUR SHI*T TOGETHER NZX!!!!!


Simmer down Moosie. 5 trades, $10K total. Hardly suspicious.

[psychic]

This Kaiser User program announcement is huge and will be very influential. Further validation on the way. All falling into place now.

And well done Parry, well deserved. And thank you..

[Slam dunk]

No, I refuse to when this is a constant, ongoing issue.

Not acceptable at all, no matter what the volume. They should be doing their job to the T!

Educate me, do all announcements have to come out pre-open?

[Dentie]

Someone likes PEB today .81 and building !!

Won't stay up there for long - I'm sure the "short sighted" ones amongst us will be busy transacting every couple of cents movement - and the nervous ones will be taking their profit after 2 or 3 cents movement.

The smart money will happily soak it all up however.

[MAC]

What does it all mean ?

That’s a relatively short time frame for the user programme from “later this year” to “early in 2015”, let’s call it six months. Probably another three months for review and approvals, then perhaps, potentially a roll over and contract approval mid next year.

Kaiser Permanente have circa 9,400,000 members, statistically then a prospective contract would offer;

1. Potentially Cxbladder tests for some of the 30,000 or so Kaiser Permanente members presenting with haematuria each year, of course some patients presenting may require a follow-up test(s).

2. Potentially Cxbladder work up tests for some of the 2,200 or so Kaiser Permanente members newly diagnosed with bladder cancer each year. Each cancer patient may require up to seven types of Cxbladder test application depending on what value propositions Kaiser Permanente may elect to adopt.

[bonne vie]

See NBR article today re the recent Blis announcement - regulators are investigating. Maybe the wake up call you want.

[blobbles]

I don't get it, all they announced is they are going to run a user program in the USA. They will somehow be using the research from the user program conducted in NZ which has resulted in basically no sales. Everyone goes crazy. Seems like any news is good news? To me it seems like a good chance they may come to the same conclusion after running the same user program as they did in NZ. Sure they might not too and sign up but it's definitely not assured. Don't count your chickens till they hatch I say... Will the few thousand (likely free) tests be included in the 10s of thousands?

[MAC]

When stocks are much undervalued it only takes a tickle to step them back to where they ought to be.

Although, perhaps the greater significance of this is simply that it shows some confidence for other HMO's and insurers to follow suit, often when one goes, particularly a big one like Kaiser, then the others may shortly follow thereafter.

JW articulated at the AGM that the focus of growth was establishing user programmes and rolling them over. This is how Pacific Edge intend to meet their goals.

Just the first of many, let’s see.

[winner69]

AGAIN!!!! Just like BLT! 10:03 am release after trades have already been through! Unbelievable!!!

GET YOUR SHI*T TOGETHER NZX!!!!!

Maybe PEB only sent it through at 10am

[Dentie]

Maybe PEB only sent it through at 10am

For my ongoing education, must a Company only make an announcement PRIOR to the opening bell?

[Minerbarejet]

If PEB had posted it at 3.30 in the afternoon would it be expected that NZX cancel all trades for the day, or the day before as well perhaps.
We have had many instances of announcements after opening by PEB, midmorning and afternoon
BLT is different in the announcement in the paper on Sunday preceded the sharemarket and it should have been available to the market prior to opening. It was not therefore there is a problem
Not in the same boat, IMHO:)

[Snow Leopard]

Nice of Kaiser to help PEB do a bigger and more statistical significant trial.
Obviously Kaiser are not so skeptical of the benefits of CxBladder that they are rejecting it outright.

Wonder whether PEB have to pay Kaisers administration fees for this !

So is this N thousand unpaid tests?

And presumably no paid tests via Kaiser until 2015 if then ?

Still a very speculative stock and thus:
Increased SP = Increased risk.

Best Wishes
Paper Tger

[Minerbarejet]

Hmmmm. Interesting! Kaiser Permanente seed funded the development of Predictive Biosciences CertnDx.
Cheers
Miner:)

[Xerof]

For my ongoing education, must a Company only make an announcement PRIOR to the opening bell? Absolutely not. I would say the issue is that NZX takes 20 mins to put an announcement up, so if you want something announced prior to open, then get off your ass and get in by 9.30.

[Carpenterjoe]

This is massive News! Yes, no sales. But the opportunity to prove your product can improve the current testing situation, reduce liability to urologists, save life's, and set a standard other insurers have to match!

I have no idea how this news should affect the short term share price.

This is a toe in the door, if you don't value this information. I would question your business knowledge and experience.

[klid]

I don't get it, all they announced is they are going to run a user program in the USA.
The results will come out "early 2015", this will be reputable proof of how well cxbladder can detect bladder cancer! A USA leading company doing an impartial trial! They're recruiting 2000 people by the looks of it, PEB only used 485 in their trials. Assuming this comes back with similar results, I think it will be fantastic! Very good news.


When stocks are much undervalued it only takes a tickle to step them back to where they ought to be.
Absolutely! Look how RAK has jumped over the last month.

This could be really good!?

[MAC]

This is massive News! Yes, no sales. But the opportunity to prove your product can improve the current testing situation, reduce liability to urologists, save life's, and set a standard other insurers have to match!

I have no idea how this news should affect the short term share price.

This is a toe in the door, if you don't value this information. I would question your business knowledge and experience.

Yep, it all adds further clarity to the forward revenue schedule too;

>>> Network providers go first, Pacific Edge have told us it takes effectively seven months from sign up to commercial sales commencing. Of the four signed up thus far, the first (FedMed) was signed up in October last year, the latest (Multiplan) in May this year.

>>> Medicare sales have been occurring for over a year now and Pacific Edge have told us that those revenues are being held by Medicare awaiting release upon contract signing, maybe before the end of this reporting period on 30th September, maybe after.

>>> And now we see the start of HMO sign up's with what seems like around about a nine month lead from user programme commencement to effective commercial clinical sales accumulating.

A few overlapping timelines can start to add up.

Kicking some numbers around, that prospective Kaiser Permanente contract could alone be worth US$10 to US$20M per annum in revenues.

[klid]

I just had a thought... I am pretty sure that in the last year that I recall seeing some news from PEB about how they have further increased the accuracy of their test, as that is one thing that they want to do -- seems entirely prudent.

Is it therefore likely that we should see an even better result from this Kaiser user program than the initial one?

[Dentie]

Absolutely not. I would say the issue is that NZX takes 20 mins to put an announcement up, so if you want something announced prior to open, then get off your ass and get in by 9.30.

Thank you sir!

[skid]

EXPOSER--Its about exposer--I spent alot of time looking for a sign that PEB was even mentioned in the US medical community--This is a step in the right direction for recognition.
That was my biggest concern -marketing recognition.
To me thats more important than sales at this stage. (It shows that the marketing team are out there doing their job)
I dont think there are many who doubt that it will be successful in the testing--Its kind of like saying -''ok we see youve got this product,lets give it a go and see if its worth its salt''
Imo it was worth the rise in SP

[winner69]

Where the hell is this Edison report?

See what's happened to SCY shareprice when Edison come out with a hyped up valuation

Jeez PEB valued at $1.40 to $1.70 by Edison would see shareprice rocket over the $1 mark

Might need to adjust my 90/100 short term target

C'mon Edison ...hurry up with that report

[Minerbarejet]

This is great news. Very pleased. Well done PEB.
Being XL I guess a 6G+ shunt in the right direction in one day would do wonders for your outlook as well. :)

[apac]

Here's a hypothetical question. Say if revenue reaches $100m and PEB starts making a profit, how much would the company be worth?

[winner69]

Here's a hypothetical question. Say if revenue reaches $100m and PEB starts making a profit, how much would the company be worth?

$1.85 this year and over $3.00 in 5 years time. Source: MAC earlier post

Edison will come out with a report in the $1.40 to $1.70 range. Source: Word on the street

[klid]

$1.85 this year and over $3.00 in 5 years time. Source: MAC earlier post

Edison will come out with a report in the $1.40 to $1.70 range. Source: Word on the street

That's far from 1 bil even... I think it would be a lot more than $1.85 with 100m revenue (the margins would be, good?)


0.82c sells almost gone.

[klid]

And dont forget this 100 mil revenue goal was based on obtaining roughly 10 % of market share.
:)

Potential of 2 million tests PA at say $500 a unit is revenue of $1 billion.
Is that 100% market share this "2 million" number that I have heard?

[benjitara]

I love it how everybody throws numbers around like PEB has already achieved everything they set out to do.. Let's not forget about what this stock is about. Diagnosis of cancer.... yes we can all have our dreams about the share price but how many people here would give their shares back just to see a loved one taken by the bloody thing in the past? All the best to PEB and those involved, let's not forget them in all the profit speak.

[biker]

I love it how everybody throws numbers around like PEB has already achieved everything they set out to do.. Let's not forget about what this stock is about. Diagnosis of cancer.... yes we can all have our dreams about the share price but how many people here would give their shares back just to see a loved one taken by the bloody thing in the past? All the best to PEB and those involved, let's not forget them in all the profit speak.

I think that is a given benjitara. This is not a tobacco stock or alcohol stock. PEB is in the business of saving lives, not destroying them. As shareholders we know this. I see nothing callous in profit projections for this stock because greater profits mean more people are accessing a superior diagnostic tool, enhancing their health outcomes.

[nextbigthing]

Ok, I'll bite. Please note that this is completely back of the envelope!

1. According to PEB, the gross margin on cx bladder in the states is 81%, so $100m revenue = $81m GROSS profit.
2. Assuming fixed costs of - say- $20 million, that gives net profit before tax of $61m.
3. Next, assuming a forward looking PE of (say) 25 - which is more than reasonable for a growth stock like this - I get a market cap of about $1.5 billion.
4. Since about 318 million shares have been issued, this translates to about $4.70 per share.

HOWEVER, this is really just a valuation of CX bladder, not PEB. If they can crack cx bladder in the states, the door will be wide open for all the other products that they have in the pipeline. If those can also be successfully commercialised, then a future value of (say) $10 billion is not unfathomable, and this would translate to a share price of $30+ (ignoring splits etc).

Makes 80 cents look quite cheap, right?

My conservative take on it - also 'back of the envelope'

$80m Gross profit
Fiixed costs higher, say $30m
Net $50m
$50m / 318m shares = 16cps

payment / nominal rate = price Lets be conservative (in this case greedy) and not invest unless they paid a 10% divvy
0.16 / 0.1 = $1.6 per share in 5 years time

To discount that price to todays present value, use 10%. Why only 10%? It includes no default premium because you either believe it's going to happen or you don't. If it fails, discounting by an extra 3% is hardly going to save your bacon.

So FV $1.60 / (1.1^5) = near enough to $1PV

There you have it, $1 conservatively if they're going to make it

Summary, if you believe PEB are going to crack 10% and get the $100m then you can pay $1 now and effectively earn 10% from now until they stop, PEB can spend $30m a year against the $100m and don't have to develop anything else....

You just have to decide if they're going to crack it......

[winner69]

NBT - they might be paying tax by then

[janner]

[QUOTE=nextbigthing;501232]

With so much Info... Talk and Speculation with this stock..

I think that you have summed it up well ..

" You just have to decide if they're going to crack it "

Win some lose some...

Disc... Holding ... Minor..

[AndyLP]

I just had a thought... I am pretty sure that in the last year that I recall seeing some news from PEB about how they have further increased the accuracy of their test, as that is one thing that they want to do -- seems entirely prudent.

Is it therefore likely that we should see an even better result from this Kaiser user program than the initial one?

If the results do come back from this larger study better than the O’Sullivan et al study.. even by just a few percentage points (like the results yielded by the combined study done by Canterbury and Waitemata DHBs where cxBladder detected 90% of all BC) we start getting into interesting territory.
Fairly sure the latest cystoscopy tech has a sensitivity of around 92-95%.
Cystoscopy's first weakness is finding small "in situ" cancers which are generally early stage.
Its second weakness is that it doesn't find cancer in the upper urinary tract. Which as we know, cxBladder can do.

Imagine a study done by medical insurer Kaiser Permanente, on 2000 patients where cxBladder outperformed cystoscopy.

[MAC]

I bought one of these years ago, absolutely invaluable at the time, a recommend a read for just $17.

http://www.amazon.com/Fundamental-Analysis-Dummies-Matt-Krantz/dp/0470506458/ref=pd_sim_b_6?ie=UTF8&refRID=0BQJFWJ269Z6R4YM4FQE

[nextbigthing]

NBT - they might be paying tax by then

Very short envelope Winner.

Vote ACT or someone further right and tax won't be an issue.

[nextbigthing]

Just to be clear - are you assuming a PE of only 10 for a biotech growth stock???

My post is merely running some numbers to see if they stack up and very conservatively at that. Non industry specific.

I absolutely agree that PEB has massive potential especially if they crack one product, then they'll be away. Those numbers are worst case scenario if they do crack it.

[apac]

So there's a chance they will be worth over $1b one day? I'm looking to invest in companies that are worth around $250m today but has the potential to be a billion dollar company. Anything else on nzx in that category?

[Carpenterjoe]

Has anyone any ideas as to the cost of this user programme?

I'm thinking its in the millions,

[MAC]

Has anyone any ideas as to the cost of this user programme?

I'm thinking its in the millions,

It's a 2,000 test at 19% COGS: 2,000 x 550 x 0.19 = US$209k = loose change

Think of it as a marketing budget except with much much better odds of success in leading to what is probably a greater than US$10M per annum contract.

Just one large contract like that, or two smaller ones, secured each year, plus Medicare sales, plus LUG sales, and it put’s that US$100M five year revenue goal into perspective.

Personally I think the risk of prosperity and that goal are both a bit understated.

[Snow Leopard]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv2JDCKLi0k

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[nextbigthing]

Please just answer the question! :)

Sorry I'm not 100% on which bit you're unsure of? I'm not trying to claim PEB will trade at a PE of 10 or that it should. Simply that if you believe their target will happen then even at $1 you can't go wrong as shown by the numbers with anything else all being upside. Hope that makes sense.

[Carpenterjoe]

It's a 2,000 test at 19% COGS: 2,000 x 550 x 0.19 = US$209k = loose change

Think of it as a marketing budget except with much much better odds of success in leading to what is probably a greater than US$10M per annum contract.

Just one large contract like that, or two smaller ones, secured each year, plus Medicare sales, plus LUG sales, and it put’s that US$100M five year revenue goal into perspective.

Personally I think the risk of prosperity and that goal are both a bit understated.

I recall a slide from a peb presentation, it showed the test being used multiple times when first diagnosed (maybe up to eight times.)


8 x 2000 =16000


16000 tests to show off the cx product at a cost of 1-2mill????

Again not big dollars, and the opportunity is endless. But it will add to the expenses and its useful to have an understanding of these costs.

[Carpenterjoe]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv2JDCKLi0k

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Classic movie,

[Slam dunk]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/314108/advance-pacific-edge

Nothing new in this article, but just posting so people are aware.

[winner69]

Hope today sees another push towards 90 cents ....and then onto a$1.00

[klid]

Hope today sees another push towards 90 cents ....and then onto a$1.00
Yes! Still following XRO a lot (XRO up 25% over last week).

I need $1.20 to get my money back I just realised :scared:

[winner69]

Where the hells that Edison Report.

Smiths City earlier in the week and now Tourism Holdings .... both valuations much higher than current shareprice

C'mon guys pull finger .... PEB needs a boost quickly if to get to $1 in September

And we have heard it is $1.40 to $1.70

[Balance]

Where the hells that Edison Report.

Smiths City earlier in the week and now Tourism Holdings .... both valuations much higher than current shareprice

C'mon guys pull finger .... PEB needs a boost quickly if to get to $1 in September

And we have heard it is $1.40 to $1.70

Notice how some of the detractors like Moose have gone deafening silent?

Love it!

[MAC]

HyperLink: New York Times - Medicare: Not Such a Budget-Buster Anymore (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/upshot/medicare-not-such-a-budget-buster-anymore.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0)

“In all, technical changes have been responsible for a 12 percent reduction since 2010”

Well, Medicare should quite like Cxbladder providing a 30% reduction in costs then.

[nextbigthing]

There, fixed ;)


I'd like to shake the Vets hand and thank him for a job well done.

[Schrodinger]

Short termers are loving it...

[klid]

Whilst looking for something else, I stumbled upon some information about the cxbladder test which were of interest to me:

http://www.healthscopepathology.com.au/index.php/advanced-pathology/cxbladder/
There's a link to a brochure and clinical validation overview on the left.

[MAC]

I recall a slide from a peb presentation, it showed the test being used multiple times when first diagnosed (maybe up to eight times.)

8 x 2000 =16000
16000 tests to show off the cx product at a cost of 1-2mill????

Again not big dollars, and the opportunity is endless. But it will add to the expenses and its useful to have an understanding of these costs.

From the announcement;

“The Kaiser Permanente User Program research project is planned to recruit approximately 2000 patients presenting with microscopic and macroscopic hematuria (blood in the urine), from the 3.7 million members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California.”

No, definitely not millions of dollars, just a couple of hundred thousand, the “2,000 patients” are not ‘cancer patients’, they are ‘haematuria patients’, thus requiring preliminary screening rather than work-up tests.

It's possible but unlikely that most would get tested twice within that six month duration, perhaps some of those tested close to the commencement of the programme may though, depends what’s been agreed.

[Poet]

From the announcement;

“The Kaiser Permanente User Program research project is planned to recruit approximately 2000 patients presenting with microscopic and macroscopic hematuria (blood in the urine), from the 3.7 million members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California.”

No, definitely not millions of dollars, just a couple of hundred thousand, the “2,000 patients” are not ‘cancer patients’, they are ‘haematuria patients’, thus requiring preliminary screening rather than work-up tests.

It's possible but unlikely that most would get tested twice within that six month duration, perhaps some of those tested close to the commencement of the programme may though, depends what’s been agreed.

It's also not clear whether KP will be paying for the tests or whether they will be freebies. I'm picking that they will be paying.

[MAC]

It's also not clear whether KP will be paying for the tests or whether they will be freebies. I'm picking that they will be paying.

Pacific Edge described it as being similar to the Mid Central Heath user programme, so we should also expect PEDusa to similarly pick up the tab.

Both user programmes are more a commercial evaluation than a clinical evaluation.

“Cxbladder is currently being evaluated in New Zealand for a similar clinical value proposition by Mid-Central District Health Board in Palmerston North. The commercial evaluation by Mid-Central DHB is to establish the levels of patient benefits and savings that can be achieved from the use of Cxbladder in a similar clinical setting to Kaiser Permanente by ruling out patients referred with micro-haematuria who do not have bladder cancer.”

[Carpenterjoe]

I bet you that's not what the clinicians think

Unfortunately snapiti, I think your right, Nz Clinicians are worried more about how much CX bladder costs and how it won't fit their budgets.
But in the states, if a urologists mistake allows a person to die, they and their practice could be liable for massive lawsuits. Especially when you have a reliable product like Cxbladder that could have picked up what they missed.
Americans don't like to be sued, hence the cx bladder market. Kiwi urologists don't have that pressure and unfortunately the condition of some of the medical boards in new Zealand is simple distributing.

This opportunity is much bigger than anything NZ could offer.

[winner69]

Hope today sees another push towards 90 cents ....and then onto a$1.00

Just having a breather at the end of week

Up 12 cents since fiasco of the ASM and up 9 cents this week so all positive

More impetus in this rise from below 70 cents which suggests a lot more support now

That 110 mark on the chart looks a good target - was looking at 100 but I think I'll aim for the 110, by end of September

Next week another 9 cents will be fine

[Carpenterjoe]

All very true.... unfortunately the US law system in not favorable to get healthcare specialist to use a product that is not published in clinical pathways.
STC always brought up the fact that PEB needs to be included in the written clinical pathways before a large adoption rate can occur.
Once cx bladder is included in clinical pathways it will give the urologist some assurance that their butts are covered.
This will be a very long process

I have no idea of the American law system. But I know Americans, and if somebody dies when it was easily preventable (like pissing in a cup). Then change will be forced, all it takes is this user programme to highlight a few American urologists mistakes and they will conform, Completely agree, positive sales figures are a long way away. But I see this company being a lot bigger than one product.

[skid]

Lets just all keep our feet on the ground--we dont need to get into ''hype'' territory again.
Slow steady growth will do just fine.

[MAC]

Seems that it’s all going pretty much to plan as it was all laid out.

Four network providers signed up thus far, the first HMO negotiation concluding with KP and an associated user programme ready to go, preliminary negotiations with Medicare made whom have been accruing revenues for Pacific Edge for a year or so now.

So, they are ahead with signing up network providers, about roughly on track with KP or within a few months at least, and may probably be a little ahead with Medicare and Medicaid negotiations.

Pacific Edge are doing a damn fine job IMHO.

From the October 2013 capital raising:

Pacific Edge is targeting large, integrated healthcare providers (such as Kaiser Permanente and Intermountain) where the insurance, hospital and medical group functions are fully integrated with a focus on best, most cost effective clinical outcome for members.

• Kaiser Permanente, for example, has 8.9 million members2
• These integrated healthcare providers are targeted to be strategic partners for Pacific Edge – discussions have commenced between Pacific Edge and various integrated healthcare providers, however it is anticipated that negotiations could take 12 months

Building a relationship with the CMS is a key target for Pacific Edge (CMS is the US federal agency which administers Medicare and Medicaid and will reimburse Pacific Edge for all Medicare / Medicaid patients who utilise Cxbladder)

• Pacific Edge anticipates continuing and concluding negotiations in earnest with Medicare and Medicaid in 2014. Pacific Edge has already conducted preliminary discussions with these entities.
• Approximately 115 million U.S. citizens are covered by Medicare and Medicaid

[blobbles]

Regarding the Kaiser user programme, they are testing people with hematuria right? 2000 thousand people...

From memory the bladder cancer rate for people with hematuria is 5-6%, so expect 100-150 people to actually have bladder cancer. It is these people that will be monitored using CxBladder after detecting their bladder cancer and during/after having it dealt with. So recurring test likely won't be on the 2000, but will be on the 100-150. That is the 2 million tests they are targeting, recurring tests of patients that have had cancer.

Another interesting thing will be to see how long the user programme is. It could quite feasibly be a year or longer if they are doing a full test of the system including detecting reoccurance. I also assume they will be doing the programme side by side with current treatment methods, but where are they doing the actual tests within the process? I remember PEB released a flow chart of the current treatment plan for patients presenting with hematuria moving through to bladder cancer. They had added where CxBladder could be used in the process, are they testing each of these points with the user programme? If not, which ones? Hopefully they will release a plan for the user programme we can see...

[MAC]

Regarding the Kaiser user programme, they are testing people with hematuria right? 2000 thousand people...

From memory the bladder cancer rate for people with hematuria is 5-6%, so expect 100-150 people to actually have bladder cancer. It is these people that will monitored using CxBladder after detecting their bladder cancer and during/after having it dealt with. That is the 2 million tests they are targeting...

My notebook says there were 74,000 new cases of bladder cancer in 2013 from around about 2 million presentations of haematuria, so yep around 3.7% will have cancer. So thus 74 may require a further work-up.

The user programme though is only six months in duration, long enough to process and screen test 2,000 haematuria patients against the performance of cytology, maybe long enough to further test the 74 I don’t know, probably, possibly.

I agree it would make some sense for KP to want to try and work through all the value propositions, for the 74 patients, I’m just not sure that can be done within a six month duration.

Hancock’s might have a better feel for that.

[MAC]

What is your time frame for the conclusion of the KP user programme and signing afterwards MAC?

It would take an insider to be sure wouldn't it Moosie, but there are some things we've been advised of.

Pacific Edge have been in talks with KP since late last year, my expectation would be that the eight value propositions have been quite well discussed and understood, and it is fair that KP should wish to trial new internal processes along with new diagnostic test providers before a final commitment to terms for which will probably be a long term contract.

Pacific Edge in the announcement said that the user programme would run from late this year into early 2015.

Because a lot of probably both commercial and clinical discussion has already been had, we may see a roll over quite soon after.

I'm supportive of Pacific Edge taking as long as is needed though to get it right, especially for the first HMO in the queue. There’s no point rushing in for a terms worse than they could have got. It's better that it takes as long as it takes.

I'm quite content with this whole user programme strategy actually, lot's more to come, let's see.

[Carpenterjoe]

The US law system is simple... if for example a urologist used methods that was in the written clinical pathways and for what ever reason fark it up he would be sued but he would also be covered by their own indemnity insurance..... how ever if the urologist decided to go outside the written clinical pathways, for example use cx bladder, and farked it up they would be sued but may not be covered by their indemnity insurance. This is a huge hurdle for PEB and whilst it remains a great product there will be a very slow uptake by urologist until cx bladder is included in the written clinical pathways.

I'm not sure this is completely correct, I think a urologist has to use all reasonable means to correctly diagnose cancer. Pathways are used as guides for practitioners, if a patient suspects a practitioner ignored modern means of diagnostic a malpractice case could be formed. Remember most malpractice law suits fail, its not only the payout that's expensive, its the defence. Yes their insurance will financially protect them, but lose of face, damage to their practice, poor reputation, on-going losses is not compensated. Its in the urologists best interests to use the most modern forms of diagnostics.

Pathways will change after time, after lawsuits, after deaths, you might be waiting sometime for cxbladder to be installed in a pathway. I expect sales to have progressed well before this point.
Again targeting insures is the key, they are doing this.

This company needs investor support, and a lot of patience.
I think Profitability is a long way off.

[Snow Leopard]

It would be a few years down the road if it all but:

Potential 'universal' blood test for cancer discovered (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140728094410.htm)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

It would be a few years down the road if it all but:

Potential 'universal' blood test for cancer discovered (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140728094410.htm)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Well timed post PT..

Shareholders have to keep reminding themselves that PEB is operating in the Bio Techology sector that is heavily affected by the current Industrial Revolution (IR)...

With IR new and innovative change takes hold and develops at an exponential pace causing recent events to be quickly outdated at an accelerating pace

Companies have to continuously adapt or perish...Is PEB able to do this??..

Disc: I'm a recent "large";) investor

[Ginger_steps_]

It would be a few years down the road if it all but:

Potential 'universal' blood test for cancer discovered (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140728094410.htm)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The question is - will it be able to determine the location of the cancer? I highly doubt analysing the white blood cell damage with UV light will be able to determine the location of the cancer. Of course the patients symptoms may provide some clues but often patients do not present symptoms until later stages. I lost my mother to cancer 6 years ago - and the doctors never located the primary tumour, only secondaries (she used public and private hospitals with numerous scans). This meant operating would only be a short term band-aid and would only hinder the quality of her remaining life - unless they were able to locate and remove the primary tumour. So in the context of this new technology - knowing that cancer is present or forthcoming is one thing, but will they need products such as CXbladder to determine the location?

[robbo24]

and then you have to deal with the insurance company policies and very good lawyers. I am not debating the guidelines or use of........ More often than not indemnity insurance companies covering malpractice have their own set of rules on what will be covered and what want be covered. Steeping outside the current perceived best practice may will not be covered and therefore may open up the clinician for litigation that is not covered by his/her indemnity insurance. Just something to consider when evaluating the sales timeline in a country where malpractice lawsuits are very common. You should post a few sample medical professional liability insurance policies on here. I am really interested to see what you have been reading to come up with your wacky ideas.

[NT001]

I would imagine that Jackie and her team must be pretty well versed in all this stuff, and it would be traversed extensively whenever they go out to talk to urologists or their insurers and others involved.

I admire the amount of research some on this thread have been putting in, but wonder how much point there is in trying to second-guess the urologists, lawyers and over-arching user groups in USA from this distance. It seems to me that it could be useful to put some questions to DD on this and ask him to answer them through one of the media pieces or briefings he sometimes does. It's obviously got to be part of the CxB sales pitch.

[MAC]

DD does like to tell the story, which is just as well I’ve always thought as there’s a lot of it. The double shot’s a good ‘you beaut’ summary NT, October last year but all good. About time for another one perhaps ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE43Of1TUGY

[Carpenterjoe]

You really are quite the orange boy aren't you.
just kinda hanging around cause you take an interest in the game but have nothing to offer the team.
1080 posts from you mostly 1 or 2 lines offering nothing on the subject matter, actually they are pure diarrhea, yet many of your posts critic others for sharing objective thoughts and researched knowledge.
FYI my dad spent 45 years in the insurance game and it was him who pointed out to me the current situation PEB will probably be facing.

I thought Robbo's question was justified? Tho he might need to work on his politeness,
Evidence to back up your statement would be useful.
My very limited experience with dealing with insurers is they are very accommodating.
When I need to makes changes to my public, product or personal insurance, they just want to know what and when your doing unusually activities.
I know this is a apples and oranges situation and my mare ten million dollar package is a drop in the ocean compared to a LUG. I'd be very surprised if an insurance company was willing to loose a client over the use of a complimentary testing product. I'm sure they would be willing to make amendments to policies for LUG.

[Carpenterjoe]

Is anyone keeping an active eye on the competition?

I see a massive company called Abbott supplying the Fish and complementary Uri Vysion test, as pretty bloody serious, I believe they have started their own 1200 patient user programme, I've so far listed eight companies who have a bladder cancer testing product, any ideas how to best track these products without loosing my life?

[Whipmoney]

Is anyone keeping an active eye on the competition?

I see a massive company called Abbott supplying the Fish and complementary Uri Vysion test, as pretty bloody serious, I believe they have started their own 1200 patient user programme, I've so far listed eight companies who have a bladder cancer testing product, any ideas how to best track these products without loosing my life?

THIS is what concerns me.

PEB may have a 'best in class' product however when it comes to commercialization they are up against some heavy competition that have a lot of money to burn on marketing.

Personally for me I would like to see some more clarity around their sales numbers (e.g. quarterly sales updates). My concern is that if they can't get traction early on then when will they? Their cash stocks can only hold out for so long and it may take a while for market acceptance.

On the flip-side, US $100m revenue in five years IS achievable (as demonstrated by some of their peers) however its this first year which is crucial to gain traction in.

DISC: watching like a hawk on the side-lines.

[Carpenterjoe]

THIS is what concerns me.

PEB may have a 'best in class' product however when it comes to commercialization they are up against some heavy competition that have a lot of money to burn on marketing.

Personally for me I would like to see some more clarity around their sales numbers (e.g. quarterly sales updates). My concern is that if they can't get traction early on then when will they? Their cash stocks can only hold out for so long and it may take a while for market acceptance.

On the flip-side, US $100m revenue in five years IS achievable (as demonstrated by some of their peers) however its this first year which is crucial to gain traction in.

DISC: watching like a hawk on the side-lines.

As an investor having as much information as possible is desirable.

But running a business requires a lot more stealth. I completely understand the lack of sales information.

Frustrating, yes

[Carpenterjoe]

I have found having someone, in my life, with a lifetime of experience, that he eagerly shares, mostly in the commercial business insurance industry has been very eye opening when it comes to an investment in PEB.
For this and many other reasons I am more than happy to be on the sidelines awaiting real sales traction.
It is what the company is not telling you that needs to be of concern to investors.

Sea is flat and the water is clean(but cold) so I am off for a dive.
Crayfish for dinner.......

Good luck!!!

[Yoda]

It been 6 months since it crossed the MACD base line so thats a bonus! I think .........

[Casino]

It is what the company is not telling you that needs to be of concern to investors.


Very wise words.

[Yoda]

Its been 6 months since is crossed the MACD LINE upwards , so that's hopeful..... Lets see how far it goes .....

[robbo24]

You really are quite the orange boy aren't you.
just kinda hanging around cause you take an interest in the game but have nothing to offer the team.
1080 posts from you mostly 1 or 2 lines offering nothing on the subject matter, actually they are pure diarrhea, yet many of your posts critic others for sharing objective thoughts and researched knowledge.
FYI my dad spent 45 years in the insurance game and it was him who pointed out to me the current situation PEB will probably be facing.

My Dad was a pilot, would you like to fly in a plane with me on the back of that information?

I am in the insurance game. I think your suggestions about the content of medical professional liability insurance is the product of your imagination with a hint of dramatised US television to add spice.

By all means, post the policy wording you refer to.

[NT001]

DD does like to tell the story, which is just as well I’ve always thought as there’s a lot of it. The double shot’s a good ‘you beaut’ summary NT, October last year but all good. About time for another one perhaps ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE43Of1TUGY

Yes MAC, I think it would be just great if DD could do another interview like this, but get it done in-house for the PEB website, explaining where the technology is at now and the nature of the multi-faceted task facing the marketing team. Also perhaps mentioning the two new products in the portfolio that must be just about ready now. It wouldn't be hard for a good PR company to set this up, with a professional interviewer properly briefed with some hard questions that our members could provide. It mustn't just be soft-soap, and should have input from Jackie's team as well.

It could even serve as a useful adjunct for the marketing team - something that potential clients could find on the site, including those outside the areas being covered by the team at present. The first video is great as an introduction to the underlying science, and DD is an excellent communicator. The second could follow on from it, and could demonstrate that PEB understands the full range of clinical and professional issues faced by a practitioner in deciding whether it would be safe, practical, ethical and economical to switch to CxB. And to the patient's benefit.

[MAC]

Yes MAC, I think it would be just great if DD could do another interview like this, but get it done in-house for the PEB website, explaining where the technology is at now and the nature of the multi-faceted task facing the marketing team. Also perhaps mentioning the two new products in the portfolio that must be just about ready now. It wouldn't be hard for a good PR company to set this up, with a professional interviewer properly briefed with some hard questions that our members could provide. It mustn't just be soft-soap, and should have input from Jackie's team as well.

It could even serve as a useful adjunct for the marketing team - something that potential clients could find on the site, including those outside the areas being covered by the team at present. The first video is great as an introduction to the underlying science, and DD is an excellent communicator. The second could follow on from it, and could demonstrate that PEB understands the full range of clinical and professional issues faced by a practitioner in deciding whether it would be safe, practical, ethical and economical to switch to CxB. And to the patient's benefit.

Yep, another would be a good thing esp for those who don’t have the idle time some of us do and just want a summary.

I think perhaps we may all have just got that at the AGM though, it was a shame I would agree that the video recording didn't work, perhaps if enough folk make a request on that basis another double shot might follow, who knows.

The close work they have done with clinicians, the development of the quite specific value propositions (clinical and commercial) and the marketing strategy they have adopted all speaks for itself quite thoroughly though really.

[NT001]

I was definitely NOT suggesting that a David Darling video should attempt to give more detailed or frequent financial information. My concern is that some members of this thread seem to spend a lot of time trying to speculate on issues such as whether US urologists will be deterred from adopting CxB by such factors as collegial rules, traditional diagnostic training, Cancer Network guidance, professional liability insurance contracts, legal pressures and concerns about competing new techologies offered by US pharma.

Some aspects of the marketing campaign were apparently touched on in the Q&A section of the ASM but not in detail and apparently no record was kept when the video transmission fiasco occurred.

There now appears to be a concern/assumption among some on this thread that PEB may not have much of a clue what it is doing now that it has moved into the marketing and commercialisation phase in the USA, a market renowned for its multi-layered regulatory environment, its enormously powerful pharmaceutical corporations and its penchant for medical litigation. I'm not saying that perception is widespread, but it's been coming through strongly in some rather acrimonious postings.

PEB is not quite your typical NZSX company. As DD has said, it's almost like a family firm. Many of those with shares care deeply about it, have faith in it. I'm one of those. Recently the company showed excellent initiative by bringing the head of its US marketing team to NZ and arranging for its ASM to be webcast. Total disaster, as we all know. But worse still, the disaster continues because of the information vacuum that continues as regards the marketing strategy and campaign. Information vacuums allow incorrect and negative perceptions to become deeply embedded.

I agree with those who suggest PEB is already issuing enough financial information. Providing more would probably only help CxB's competitors, and the traders. But I would like DD, who is an excellent communicator, to arrange for a follow-up to the video he did with interest.co.nz just under a year ago. That first video covered the early scientific phase of the company's operations. Now it's time to describe how CxB is being marketed - the strategy, and the reactions it's getting. The hoops PEB has to jump through, both with the regulators and in persuading urologists and others in the US why they should adopt a test developed in far-off NZ, and what's in it for them and their patients. No big secrets, nothing share-price sensitive. Just someting to fill the information gap that at present is engendering negativity and fear within the "family firm". I plan to suggest this to DD.

[MAC]

Yep, I'd agree with all that.

Although, those you refer to are largely just knockers knocking, they don’t have any real genuine interest or concern for that matter, they just get their jollies by making up area 51 conspiracies and attempting to scare newbies, just pathetic and lame to everyone else really.

NT, have you got all the commercialisation presentations, and the 2011 and 2013 capital raising docs, etc, ?

[MAC]

Serious question MAC. As with any stock, do you have an exit strategy if the story changes for the worse? Not knocking, just asking.

Ok, so a serious answer is fair then, I do Moosie, you may have seen my SUM exit play out a few months ago after having been a happy holder for over two years.

I don't re-balance a lot at all really, increasingly less has proved more prosperous for me over the years, although it does take balls of steel at times, I’ve made just five buys and sells in the last twelve months, two of which were rights issues.

My exit strategy for Pacific Edge is similar to most of my growth portfolio holdings, any of which would see me sell;

a) Growth plateauing (it's just the beginning though for Pacific Edge)
b) On notice after a first dividend announcement
c) The end of the bull cycle (I do a lot of FA work on this per the other thread)
d) A fundamental shift in the underlying efficacy of the company (watching all the time)

[couta1]

Ok, so a serious answer is fair then, I do Moosie, you may have seen my SUM exit play out a few months ago after having been a happy holder for over two years.

I don't re-balance a lot at all really, increasingly less has proved more prosperous for me over the years, although it does take balls of steel at times, I’ve made just five buys and sells in the last twelve months, two of which were rights issues.

My exit strategy for Pacific Edge is similar to most of my growth portfolio holdings, any of which would see me sell;

a) Growth plateauing (it's just the beginning though for Pacific Edge)
b) On notice after a first dividend announcement
c) The end of the bull cycle (I do a lot of FA work on this per the other thread)
d) A fundamental shift in the underlying efficacy of the company (watching all the time)
Interesting that you exited Sum as apart from its recent downtrend(Short-term IMO) it must still tick all your boxes long term and is still in its early days of development.

[Schrodinger]

So with 2 months to go what is everyones expectations for the next financial results? I note that the new NXT market requirement to have quarterly updates and havent seen any financial/performance metrics from PEB for a few months. For followers of this stock do PEB release quarterly updates and if not why does the NXT require them but not NZX main?

[robbo24]

thanks OB but as you well know,if you are in the insurance game, getting a hold of large cooperate malpractice policy documents for the US is virtually impossible. Does not mean this is not a huge headwind for PEB.
But I appreciate your challenge and look forward to you eventually adding some value to the thread.

Oh well in that case I suppose everyone can take your word for it that: (1) Insurance policies say what you say they say, and; (2) They are impossible to obtain because you say so, and; (3) Your Dad is an insurance expert therefore your vaguely scrawled opinion on the matter holds weights.

Tui plz.

[Schrodinger]

Yes I understand main board rules, but I assume the quarterlies include operating metrics (volume) as the bare minimum for NXT. What is interesting is that PEB does not do quarterly updates (volume/sales) but companies on the NXT will be rquired to?

This should be a signal for PEB to release their quarterly metrics so we can track them better. I see no reason for the less regulated companies on the NXT to update on financial metrics more than a main board company. Before we get a string of email from MAC etc this is how I interpret the new rules and for companies that do not report their volume metrics each quarter this should force them to.

[robbo24]

Oh well in that case I suppose everyone can take your word for it that: (1) Insurance policies say what you say they say, and; (2) They are impossible to obtain because you say so, and; (3) Your Dad is an insurance expert therefore your vaguely scrawled opinion on the matter holds weights.

Tui plz.

Here's a few to start with, from all over the world. Negligence is negligence. If using CXBladder is negligent then the doctor is covered. The propositions you make are becoming more and more fanciful.

http://www.vero.com.au/vero/sites/default/files/fm/pdf/profin/medical-malpractice-for-healthcare-establishments/V7363-vero-medical-malpractice-policy-wording.pdf
http://www.dualaustralia.com.au/files/documents/Medical_Malpractice_Wording.pdf
http://www.hiscoxbroker.co.uk/shared-documents/policy-wording/7900-combined-medical-malpractice-public-prods-ins.pdf
http://www.agdore.com/assets/documents/Asta_Camomile_-_AGD_Medical_UK_2013.pdf
http://www.willis.com/Sites/Canada/Documents/PROFESSIONAL_LIABILITY.pdf
http://www.irda.gov.in/ADMINCMS/cms/Uploadedfiles/47_PROFESSIONAL%20INDEMNITY%20INSURANCE%20POLICY-MEDICAL%20MALPRACTICE.pdf
http://www.teamcare.com.au/Include/ElectosFileStreaming.asp?FileId=82
http://www.mdanational.com.au/media/190214/piip%20fsg%20pds%20policy%20wording%20v.8.pdf
http://www.macqund.com.au/downloads/Macquarie-Medical-Liability-Wording-MUML11.pdf
http://www.woodina.com.au/sites/default/files/wua_medical_malpractice_wording_09_12.pdf

[robbo24]

another of your informative post clogging up this thread.... way to go OB.

Please ask your Dad for his comprehensive analysis of these policies. Or perhaps you can use your channeling abilities to use his knowledge and expertise, as you claim to be able to.

[Schrodinger]

simply: NXT, quarterly updates, no continuous disclosure needed NZX, Continuous Disclosure rules, no quarterly updates needed.

The quarterly updates have to include volume metrics and these are crucial for any investor to know. If people dont see the contradiction that a main board company can hold out for 6 months to file the statutory half years accounts this leaves an investor in limbo for 3 extra months. I know which I prefer.

[MAC]

I'd be curious to hear more about your SUM exit if you have the time and can be bothered.

Was back in May, happy to discuss on the SUM thread;

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5009-Summerset-Group-IPO&p=482182&highlight=sold#post482182

[karen1]

I must have been sleeping for months, woke up today to read the NBR Market Close for yesterday: 'Pacific Edge, the Dunedin-based biotech company, declined 2.3 percent to $5.00.'

Best news I've read all year!

[nextbigthing]

They know something we don't know. And I like it.

[karen1]

Hope you are not forking out good money for information like that.

Not at all, freely available on their site for all to see, and dream...

[psychic]

Invisible blood in urine may indicate bladder cancer

http://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/featurednews/title_408171_en.html

New research which finds that invisible blood in urine may be an early warning sign of bladder cancer is likely to shape guidelines for clinicians.

and

Early diagnosis is crucial to have the best chance of successfully treating bladder cancer. The three-quarters of patients who are diagnosed early have much better outcomes than those whose disease is diagnosed late. Anything we can do to boost early detection is crucial to help save lives.”




We have just the test for you...:)

[psychic]

If you are in the high risk category, early screening as with other Cancers.. ?

[Xerof]

If it's invisible and you have no pain, how are you going to know to present to your GP exactly???thats easy. A national screening programme for "everyone", say, once every 12 months. Paid for from the massive savings on late diagnosis costs.

semi T-in-C, but might stimulate some conversation about CxBladder, rather than minutea detail for sales reporting every quarter, misleading newspaper reports, and Crim.Con and dirty politics

[Xerof]

A urine dipstick test for haematuria is a relatively common occurrence in primary care. Management is determined by the presence of associated symptoms, risk factors for malignancy and additional investigations to identify an urological or nephrological cause.

Moosie, there's your answer, dipstick

:D

[psychic]

Moosie, there's your answer, dipstick

:D

lol - ....................... (no offence Moosie)

[NT001]

If it's invisible and you have no pain, how are you going to know to present to your GP exactly???

Not so long ago I had to pee for a test that diagnosed urinary tract infection, a common and easily treatable condition, but I'm sure my GP would have asked the lab to test for other things as well such as blood in the urine, just in case.

[Yoda]

For what its worth, i do some training for Drs so asked the urologists
"...See you at 3.30 on Wednesday .I saw some interesting stuff about CxBladder .
Do you use that test ?"
reply
Yes, it is a great test that has taken over urine cytology. Xxxxxxx in particular uses it a lot for his patients."

[nextbigthing]

For what its worth, i do some training for Drs so asked the urologists
"...See you at 3.30 on Wednesday .I saw some interesting stuff about CxBladder .
Do you use that test ?"
reply
Yes, it is a great test that has taken over urine cytology. Xxxxxxx in particular uses it a lot for his patients."

Where's this Yoda?

[winner69]

Back to what's important in the short term. More interesting than all this chatter about what may happen in 5 years time. Todays share price is the important thing

The squiggly line on the chart has started turned down Hung in there at 80 but some small trades bailed at the close at 79

Doesn't look like that 90/100 this time around.

Will see what happens tomorrow morning. If looking a bit weak will take the 13%/14% profit this time around. Hope more liquidity than today. Always another go from sub 70 methinks .... sometime

[Yoda]

Where's this Yoda?
Bay of plenty

[Hoop]

Back to what's important in the short term. More interesting than all this chatter about what may happen in 5 years time. Todays share price is the important thing

The squiggly line on the chart has started turned down Hung in there at 80 but some small trades bailed at the close at 79

Doesn't look like that 90/100 this time around.

Will see what happens tomorrow morning. If looking a bit weak will take the 13%/14% profit this time around. Hope more liquidity than today. Always another go from sub 70 methinks .... sometime

Do you think PEB will revisit Sub 70?.......PEB chart is the best it has looked since March....The double bottom pattern seems confirmed when 75c bull/bear line was cracked.....A bit early yet to be sure (still could get a confirmation failure)..but at the moment the Bear cycle looks to be done and dusted

[Xerof]

Good news Yoda, that is what this is all about:

HyperLink: BOP and Lakes Urologists adopt Cxbladder (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news-and-media/news/bop-and-lakes-urologists-adopt-cxbladder/)


I guess then, they must have got some of snapiti's elusive insurance cover :p

[Harvey Specter]

Good news Yoda, that is what this is all about:

HyperLink: BOP and Lakes Urologists adopt Cxbladder (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news-and-media/news/bop-and-lakes-urologists-adopt-cxbladder/)

Interesting the WDHB still hasn't signed up - they are the ones that did the trial afterall.

[sharp]

Large order at 80c placed 2.30ish. Someone likes PEB :P

[sharp]

Boys and girls backing 80 cents as the new supp. Thin asks - IMHO. Unless someone is short trading and looking to make a quick buck or two from previous weeks.

[Minerbarejet]

Interesting the WDHB still hasn't signed up - they are the ones that did the trial afterall.
WDHB being Waitemata, Waikato or Whanganui District Health Board. Assuming you mean Waitemata, signed up or included under Health Innovation Hub announcement Feb 10 2014 as far as I can see.

[klid]

PEB up 3.8% and XRO down 2.5% -- that's what I'm talkin' bout!

PEB how beats XRO over the last 1 month and 3 month periods, and is catching up on the 6 month.

[Minerbarejet]

Why on earth would you want to make a full time career of such a manipulated market?
This in from HotCopper CDY thread seeing as we are on the subject. This will blow your socks off.



The market maker is the strongest trader (sourced from the internet somewhere?)
He is the one who takes the other side of a trade and makes a mostly riskless business with the spread, the difference between buy and sell price. Furthermore, he has state of the art equipment, which he watches like a hawk all day in a big room with others doing the same, hoping that many hawkish eyeballs are seeing more than single prey's ones. The market maker is known to be in a strong trading position, as he works for a big company with real money, which other traders fear.

With the capital behind him he is able to drive prices up and down, enticing euphoric investors into high prices and shaking out trembling ones with a loss at low prices. For example, the market maker likes to initiate breakouts. He is buying low within a price range that he even may have formed for that reason, bringing the price to the upper edge and selling higher into the following rush of buyers, who may falsely interpret this breakout as a signal. The same game can be played with first fuelling a trend to an exaggerated level and then bending it around and initiating a swing into the opposite direction.

Here is some more:

A market maker can use hidden orders to avoid disclosing his real intention and to hide large volumes.

A market maker can use large fake order sizes to intimidate traders to run in the opposite direction. This is referred to as NITBB (no intention to buy bid) and NITSO (no intention to sell offer). For example if a market maker wants to run the stock down he will create a virtual institutional size ask putting fear in the traders that the stock is going down. The market maker will then fill his buys at the lower prices. The reverse may also be done.

A market maker may display a real size to show that liquidity is there to attract big interest A market maker may use a fake order of a large size to hold the movement until he is done buying or selling his position.

A market maker can use his real identity or can hide behind an ECN (electronic communication network) depending on his intention. He can make an inside market on both sides and under different identities

Market makers may also trade back and forth among themselves, filling their own bids, creating a large decrease and spooking everyone who is uneducated into selling also.

The market maker (specialist) is granted various informational and trade execution advantages and has a lot of power. They can see everything. WHEN YOU ENTER A STOP LOSS ORDER THE MARKET MAKERS CAN SEE THEM! You may notice from time to time a stock hit a short term low and then move up again.

Market makers will do everything in their power to hit the stop losses to build up more shares for their account if they believe the stock will rise again. A stop loss order becomes a market order when it is triggered. If the volume of the bids are low your stop loss will trigger a much lower sale price and bring the stock down with it (referred to as slippage).

But I suppose you all knew that already. :)

Have a nice day

[couta1]

Exactly miner. Trading - especially forex - is a fools errand. There is ABSOLUTELY no way that retail players can ever compete with the big boys. David an Goliath, much?
Probably not the best example NG as David in the original story defeated Goliath, perhaps Moosie is going to also use his favorite weapons, no not a sling and stone but a pair of antlers and a bottle of maple syrup:cool:

[robbo24]

Good lord you're more cynical than me right now!

And I don't intraday trade like you may think. My trades this year I am more than happy with ;)

I can attest go this. Moosie_900 is too much of a "nervous nellie" to intraday. He may also be a "scared snizz."

[sharp]

Support order to get others to bid up price. All part of the game. These disappear in short order if the SP approaches it. All part of the game ;)

Moosie - credit to you for getting it right. That large bid has now disappeared...

[ziggy415]

Moosie - credit to you for getting it right. That large bid has now disappeared...
i thought following the nags was dodgy but im slowly learning there,s more to this game than I thought..not that Im saying all you guys are dodgy :D

[klid]

Trading halt??? Heh. Gona read this announcement!!!!

There was buy and sell for both .83 for at least a few minutes not executing.

Melanoma? Where did that come from!? Hah, fantastic.

85/56 not looking so strong now :D
EDIT: 86 sell restacked - it is resistance right? I ain't no TAer but I think that's the case?

[barney]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/254867

[stoploss]

Maybe a quick lift to 90 .....

[couta1]

This company keeps ticking the boxes one by one and I'm proud to be one of its long term shareholders:cool:

[psychic]

Was obtaining this patent unlikely?
But whatever, we will take the extra excitement it seems to have created.
Perhaps Mr Market now sees PEB may not be just a one trick pony?

[sharp]

This company keeps ticking the boxes one by one and I'm proud to be one of its long term shareholders:cool:

So am I. I might get in some more :)

How much is such a patent in worth?

[MAC]

So am I. I might get in some more :)

How much is such a patent in worth?

When it becomes commercialised its worth lot’s as far as I’m concerned as a skin cancer patient, if it means through better prognosis that aggressive cancers can be better assessed then it’s less likely that the docs will take a ‘chop it off and ask biopsy questions later’ approach. You would be astonished at how easy they pull the scalpels out when in doubt, its scary stuff when you start losing bits and pieces.

[winner69]

Maybe a quick lift to 90 .....

No no - wont stop there $1.10 looks a good place on the squigqly line thingie

[hilskin]

The American Cancer Society estimates that at present, more than 120,000 new cases of melanoma in the US are diagnosed in a year. In 2014, an estimated 76,100 of these will be invasive melanomas, with about 43,890 in males and 32,210 in women.

[barney]

Cetrainly a good indication that things are on track. Aside from the melanoma patent, the confirmation that the triage and prediction technology are nearing comercialisation is very positive. Also, it's not the first time in recent weeks that they have said they are looking at targeting other international markets. Obviously some talks going on. My guess would be something out of Singapore.

[MAC]

Clinical trials and regulatory approvals next, let’s say that takes 18 to 24 months. Should be all good and ready to phase into the market with all that cash the Cxbladder cash cow is intended to provide.

Cxbladder product suite this year into next, then Cxcolorectal than shall we call it Cxmelanoma, nice, just like a sausage machine.

6218

[MAC]

the patent itself carries significant value IMHO, so this news represents a significant uplift in PEB's overall value proposition.

When quality stocks like PEB with good fundamentals are so grossly undervalued all catalysts will lift the boat.

Agree though, patients add to the value proposition of products, make it more difficult for competitors to enter, and it's likely should a takeover be contemplated downstream that the patent suite will be priced.

[Hoop]

2nd Sept 2014
Do you think PEB will revisit Sub 70?.......PEB chart is the best it has looked since March....The double bottom pattern seems confirmed when 75c bull/bear line was cracked.....A bit early yet to be sure (still could get a confirmation failure)..but at the moment the Bear cycle looks to be done and dusted
see my todays chart below


Trading halt???.......
Melanoma? Where did that come from!? Hah, fantastic.

......85/56 not looking so strong now :D
EDIT: 86 sell restacked - it is resistance right? I ain't no TAer but I think that's the case?

Not much resistance chartwise at 86..
A little more resistance at 91 (drawn on chart)
The main resistances are the 98 - 101 area..the 110 area ...and 120, the old scary cliff face that represented the last line of support before breaking into the vacuum a few months back.
Disc: hold ( IN were my buy points)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB04093014.gif


(http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB04093014.gif.html)

[Hoop]

Thanks hoop. Are the in/out tags on your chart actual or hypothetical entry/exit points?
I mostly use TA for my investing nowadays...New Guy, they are my actual trading buy in and sell out points using simple basic TA..I did do a couple of dead cat bounce trading on the way down too (not shown) one was profitable the other a small loss (I was a bit stupid with this one)..but it proves a point that you can make money as well by going long (short term trades) on a steep falling share price..:)

[Harvey Specter]

How many balls do these gusy have in the air. Maybe I need to read more but didn't even realised this was on the horizon.

Maybe its the accountant (not the scientist) in me coming out but shouldn't they be focusing on getting some revenue at the moment?

[winner69]

Hoop, I think that 110 mark is next key level. Might be too strong a resistance level but if breached probably the lowest it will ever be (assuming success)

Sub 70 to 110 in a month or two will do me fine.

Just remember - the squiqqly line will always squiggle its way to where a grossly undervalued fundamentally good stock reflects real intrinsic value.

[winner69]

BOOM. 88 cents.

90 by end of the day

That 110 getting closer by the hour

We need more announcements, maybe that Edison report next week. Independent valuation, with all due respects to MAC, of $1.40 to $1.70 will do fine

[stoploss]

90 by end of the day

That 110 getting closer by the hour

We need more announcements, maybe that Edison report next week. Independent valuation, with all due respects to MAC, of $1.40 to $1.70 will do fine

You agreeing with me now ????
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by stoploss http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=502429#post502429)
Maybe a quick lift to 90 .....



No no - wont stop there $1.10 looks a good place on the squigqly line thingie

[Longhaul]

Seriously, how likely are other big pharmaceutical companies going to be eyeing Pacific Edge's IP for a takeover?

I have no idea, so informed opinions (or not) would be much appreciated.

[skid]

Melanoma??---OK, these guys have got my attention.
I look at things(especially in the US market)from a marketing point of view.
PEB is becoming hopefully more noticeable--If melanoma lifts the eyebrows-then more people or institutions are going to start saying ''who are these guys?''--then the bladder detection becomes more visible
The big guys (doctors with influence-institutions-etc.) they want to know a company and product is going to still be around in a few years before changing their habits----this is a sign that they are going to be around and are moving ahead---Are they getting attention?--
Well, time will tell...but it is getting more likely .---its looking like these guys have come to play(as they say in rugby)

[MAC]

Seriously, how likely are other big pharmaceutical companies going to be eyeing Pacific Edge's IP for a takeover?

I have no idea, so informed opinions (or not) would be much appreciated.

It may not necessarily require a takeover to monetise the melanoma test as per this example, Pacific Edge is known to both Roche and Oryzon too coincidentally.

http://www.roche.com/research_and_development/partnering/partnering-media/partnering_news-2014-04-07.htm

There does seem to be a magic US$100M figure very often kicked about in the biotech sector, and it’s probably no coincidence that Pacific Edge have also adopted this as a revenue goal.

“In the diagnostics industry there is a threshold of around $100 million ($100M) in annual revenue. At that critical mass a company can generate more efficiencies in the lab because it is running more tests. Also, from a valuation perspective, companies that have $100M or more in revenue are more attractive to larger players as potential acquisition candidates. They do enough business to impact the profit and loss statement of the larger company.”

http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com...er-diagnostics (http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/testing-testing-analyst-kevin-degeeter-on-five-good-bets-in-cancer-diagnostics)

In 2011 Pacific Edge opted to establish their own commercialisation company, PEDusa, which takes them down a different path from that as just being an R&D company, IMO a better path for shareholders, a takeover could have occurred in 2011, now more likely to be a couple of years from now on this basis.

[winner69]

You agreeing with me now ????
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by stoploss http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=502429#post502429)
Maybe a quick lift to 90 .....



No no - wont stop there $1.10 looks a good place on the squigqly line thingie

Think we talking the same thing

90 today .......then 110 soon

Sometimes squiggly lines are more fun and exciting than DCFs

[nextbigthing]

Winner do you have a DCF that you'd mind posting? Cheers

[klid]

PEB up 3.8% and XRO down 2.5% -- that's what I'm talkin' bout!

PEB how beats XRO over the last 1 month and 3 month periods, and is catching up on the 6 month.

At 88c PEB has finally matched XRO over the last 6 months.

XRO -43.32%
PEB -43.59%

[nextbigthing]

Let's see if the bosses sell down after the announcements this time :D

Disc holding

[ziggy415]

and there it is!
congrats to all the peb believers....some cx sales now and your all in clover...well done

[Dentie]

very true.... but surely given PEB business situation/stratigy only sales could be considered proper runs.
you might be slowly getting emotionally attach to this one..... this can creep up on you and before you know it BAM you are in love.......lol
Easy to fall in love with a stock going up.:p:p

Go to San Fran for a week...now sitting in Hawaii...and I've missed all the action it seems. Or is it just starting to warm up? But I have to wonder whether you are still trying to surf against the building tide Snaps...or have you started to accumulate before it starts getting too hot?

[Balance]

Upcoming golden cross. MA100 smashed today, with an end on highs and nice big blue candle along the upper bolinger band. Expect more of the same tomorrow. Congrats to those who bought in the 60s ;)

Nice gain :D

More upside potential yet so better get back in, Moose!

[robbo24]

Hoop, I think that 110 mark is next key level. Might be too strong a resistance level but if breached probably the lowest it will ever be (assuming success)

I agree, by that stage it will be a test of SMA 200 as well. Could be fun.

[Copper]

Hancocks is a gem - those of us who follow PEB and are invested in the company appreciate his postings.

I would agree 100% that there are some who are traders with very short term views, and they are easy to spot because their tunes change with the direction of a company's share price.

There is how ever with PEB a disquieting element from some long term investors however - who seem to think the sun shines out of the proverbial of PEB's directors and management, and any challenge or question is intended to 'knock' the company.

Fact is that Darling and Swann have done a superb job taLking PEB to where it is today - they deserve to be congratulated and applauded, and NZ needs more like them.

The important issue is whether they are the right people to take the company forward - do they have the right stuff, or is it better for the company to bring someone aboard with real commercial and international experience to manage the commercialization of PEB's products.

No less than Steve Jobs admitted that one of the best things that ever happened to him (and to Apple) was to be fired from the company first time round. He simply was not ready at that time.


I will be bold as to say that if DD and CS are not prepare
d to front up and bring investors up to date with how they are going, and to comment on how they are planning to reach the $100m target, they are not up to the job. This is not a big ask and provides a valuable measure of how they are going.


That's not knocking them but to put it plainly, PEB shareh
olders and the market deserve better after supporting them through the years.

PS. 'tens of thousands of tests' means precisely that - whether they are sales or not.


A nice post Balance and with the recent announcement it's great to reflect on what has been said on the thread and what may happen in the immediate future. Cheers

[Minerbarejet]

Upcoming golden cross. MA100 smashed today, with an end on highs and nice big blue candle along the upper bolinger band. Expect more of the same tomorrow. Congrats to those who bought in the 60s ;)
Thanks for all that, Moosie

[winner69]

Upcoming golden cross. MA100 smashed today, with an end on highs and nice big blue candle along the upper bolinger band. Expect more of the same tomorrow. Congrats to those who bought in the 60s ;)

How many days before my 110 reached then moosie

[winner69]

Exactly 715 hours, 47 minutes and 38 seconds ;)

That's a weekend

[whatsup]

Canadian time remember? ;)

More like Moosie time !!

[winner69]

Winner do you have a DCF that you'd mind posting? Cheers

Posted output under numerous discount and growth rates a few months ago. The value I highlighted was 107 with my preferred rates but the range was 80 to 400 odd under different scenarios.

Haven't updated since but as everything has been pushed out a year or so even if assumptions stayed the same the valuations would be lower .....say 90 cents

Mainly did it just get a feel for whether it ever worth 170 if successful ....or not much if a failure

Just playing the rises from sub 70 now. The squiggly lines are more valuable than any DCF valuations. At least the squiggly line shows whether punters are grumpy or sad. They happy now and that's good. PEB shareprice driven by sentiment and announcements.

Looking forward to this Edison report ....140/170 the word in the street is. That'll put a rocket under the shareprice.

What you reckon it worth

[Carpenterjoe]

Found this on KP website, I never had any idea a test could be used in this manner. Imagine a cxbladder test mailed out every two years to a smoker or firemen.

http://kaiserpermanentecarestories.org/at-home-screening-test-allowed-sherry-jansmas-doctors-to-find-colon-cancer-before-it-spread/

[Ryrynz]

Well I for one am actually pleased that it's moving closer toward what I actually paid for it.. losing around 50% of it's value in so many months teaches you some lessons.

[couta1]

Well I for one am actually pleased that it's moving closer toward what I actually paid for it.. losing around 50% of it's value in so many months teaches you some lessons.
It teaches you a lot of patience and not to listen to all the noise if you believe a given company can achieve what it says it can. I'm sitting on 5 companies showing between 30 and 45% paper losses currently with Peb being one of them but I believe each of the 5 will go positive and beyond given time.

[barney]

Interesting piece from David Darling.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport

[Slam dunk]

Found this on KP website, I never had any idea a test could be used in this manner. Imagine a cxbladder test mailed out every two years to a smoker or firemen.

http://kaiserpermanentecarestories.org/at-home-screening-test-allowed-sherry-jansmas-doctors-to-find-colon-cancer-before-it-spread/

Great share thanks CJ! That would be very good indeed. Certainly priceless value for that lady in the video

[Slam dunk]

Interesting piece from David Darling.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport

That clip from David explains that this has the potential to be more fruitful and in better time than I understood just from reading the announcement yesterday. I had assumed they'd have to go through a similar commercialisation process to that of CxBladder (and hence similar timeframes) to see revenue but it seems that these companion diagnostics can result in revenue relatively quickly (if a partnership is found). I do hope/presume they're going to be a little more proactive than hoping a partnership "comes along" though.

[sharp]

PEB one to follow today. Get in early boys. My two cents.

[winner69]

PEB one to follow today. Get in early boys. My two cents.

YEP

Day 2 after a fantastically positive announcement usually good

The 90 a good spring board to that 110

Squiggly lines are fun