PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[sharp]

YEP

Day 2 after a fantastically positive announcement usually good

The 90 a good spring board to that 110

Squiggly lines are fun

Imagine what a partnership announcement would do. To be straight up. I am buying some for trading and to hold until such time revenues materialise (time for a new AMG once that happens).

[skid]

I think you are right couta, it just a paper loss, until you sell, that can reverse over time.

I dont agree with that,and Im surprised you said that snaps--After the sales announcement you sold quick which was in hindsight ,the right thing to do-I bailed not long after as well(took a 10% loss)
But then it started looking like the hype was going in the other direction and decided it was close enough to the SP before all this Hype started to give the management a chance to prove them selves(It was a gamble with better odds than before) Got in @65(ok I got lucky--Im not pretending to be a professional at picking bottoms)--but the point is,it has taken me less of a rise to break even and start getting into the black)
Who knows how they will do with sales,but the momentum does seem to have changed and they now have another bun in the fire which in time could bring in the dosh,and more importantly bring attention to the product they are selling right now.
The fact that it is looking more likely that management are out there doing stuff and not sitting on their hands makes me less concerned with short term sales as I was before.--the potential for sales is higher now IMO--Its a gamble plain and simple--but hopefully the odds are stacked a bit more in their favor.

[Longhaul]

I dont agree with that,and Im surprised you said that snaps--After the sales announcement you sold quick which was in hindsight ,the right thing to do-I bailed not long after as well(took a 10% loss)...

Well I guess there is also the consideration of walking the fine line between investor and trader for tax purposes. An "investor" might hold while the price falls if the fundamentals haven't changed, while a "trader" would happily bail and not have to worry about getting in and out. This definitely crosses my mind.

[sharp]

wow, look at that depth already!

Get in early...

[winner69]

Alright, slow up people. While a good step in diversifying the company, how many years is it going to take to commercialise this? 5 years? 7 years? A decade?

Remember, they were saying CxColorectal would be out "very soon", nearly 3 years ago. We haven't even seen triage released yet.

Remember what happened last time we all got irrational exeburant? Is this price spike due to real profits soon, or just momo boys pumping the price for a few bucks out of the uncontrollably emotional?

Stop (and think) before buying in on this "price sensitive" news...

Irrational exuberance is good - shareprice heads up fast eh

Saw somewhere that at the moment only 10% of US analysts are showing any sins of bearing bearish.

Punters want good stories. Hope PEB comes out with a few more over the next few weeks and then we have that Edison Report soon

Squiggly line looking good

[sharp]

To me the difference with this share now as against a couple of weeks ago is the absence of a significant seller. I have been buying for the last 3 months or so since the sp declined to .80 as the seller existed. Average of purchases over that time .68. The sell down over the last 6 months has been a fantastic opportunity.

Was it Huljich that have sold out?

[Minerbarejet]

Seems like only yesterday we were at 82 cents.:)

[Toasty]

Seems like only yesterday we were at 82 cents.:)

And the day before that at $1.70....

[klid]

Interesting piece from David Darling.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport

Thank you. Well worth listening to for some info on what yesterdays announcement might mean.

Buoyant!

[nextbigthing]

What you reckon it worth


My conservative take on it - also 'back of the envelope'
..............
Summary, if you believe PEB are going to crack 10% and get the $100m then you can pay $1 now and effectively earn 10% from now until they stop, PEB can spend $30m a year against the $100m and don't have to develop anything else....

You just have to decide if they're going to crack it......

I dunno Winner.

But I fear things are getting/going to get a bit ahead of themselves again. Certainly great to see the company going forward though.

Disc Hold.

[winner69]

A $1 at the end of the day would be nice

Next week should be OK as well ....esp if David drops a few more juicy words like partner to the media and punters mull over it while having their Saturday lattes

Getting to the position one can't afford not to be in PEB .....just in case the big news breaks

[sharp]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/190580.pdf

Huljich sell down - reason for the fall from $1.60-$1.70 range?

Are we likely to see a jump past FB's target price of $1.10 and back to $1.60 -$1.70 range? Given there doesn't appear to be any substantial shareholder selling down.

[MAC]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/190580.pdf

Huljich sell down - reason for the fall from $1.60-$1.70 range?

Are we likely to see a jump past FB's target price of $1.10 and back to $1.60 -$1.70 range? Given there doesn't appear to be any substantial shareholder selling down.

That Forsyth Barr’s target price of $1.10 was very low ball at the time being predicated on a conservative view that Pacific edge would be two years late in achieving their 5 year goal of 100M in revenues. Pacific Edge have since reaffirmed that the five year goal is achievable.

The two recent announcements also provide some support, I suspect FB may already have their calculators out and are sharpening their pencils for an upward revision.

[etrader]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/190580.pdf

Huljich sell down - reason for the fall from $1.60-$1.70 range?

Are we likely to see a jump past FB's target price of $1.10 and back to $1.60 -$1.70 range? Given there doesn't appear to be any substantial shareholder selling down.

He has pulled funds to invest heavily into pushpay so all good that several larger holders have sold down i see it as not having more weight dumped when The share prices moves north

[nextbigthing]

I think we are still quite a long way off $1.70, but its definitely moving in the right direction. If the next HY report shows a decent lift in CX bladder sales - particularly in the US - and there are a couple of other positive announcements between now and then, I suspect that it will easily crack (say) $1.30.

I would dare suggest (based purely on speculation) that if they did show decent sales it wouldn't stop at $1.30 and $1.70 and more would be on the cards again. But that's IF.

Fingers crossed aye.

[winner69]

I would dare suggest (based purely on speculation) that if they did show decent sales it wouldn't stop at $1.30 and $1.70 and more would be on the cards again. But that's IF.

Fingers crossed aye.

Jeez - 2 bucks

Sounds juicy

[MAC]

I would dare suggest (based purely on speculation) that if they did show decent sales it wouldn't stop at $1.30 and $1.70 and more would be on the cards again. But that's IF.

Fingers crossed aye.

I really think, honestly, that a few early random sales are not indicative of the company’s value, it’s the ground work going into the larger more lucrative prospective contracts that’s much more important as an indicator of progress.

Just 1 or 2 user programmes with larger insurers per annum prospectively rolling over is worth much much more than a handful of independent interested urologists purchasing a few tests now.

Although it would be interesting if the accumulation of tests for Medicare and associated retained earnings falls within this reporting period, I don’t think it will, more likely to be next, it’s getting close to 30 September now.

[Minerbarejet]

:)Suppose we can expect further delays on the Edison report now as they will probably have to do a remodel with the new information

[sharp]

:)Suppose we can expect further delays on the Edison report now as they will probably have to do a remodel with the new information

When is the report due out?

[sharp]

When is the report due out?

Might as well hold on to my trading stock until the report is out... hold on to the long-term stocks

[MAC]

From this morning’s radio interview with David Darling on the melanoma test commercialisation;

“The melanoma test could reach the market relatively soon”

“This particular opportunity lends itself nicely to a partnership with a company that might be developing a drug for melanoma, and in such a situation they look for new tools which we call campaign diagnostics and they use those companion diagnostics to sort patients going into the clinical studies to make sure they are getting those patients that will respond to the treatment.”

“So if they can use this test to segregate patients with recent tumours then put them into their clinical study they can determine how their new therapeutic will work and then subsequently if that therapeutic gets through to the market they’ll use the companion diagnostic on every patient that comes along with a melanoma to determine whether or not they will respond to the drug.”

Most new therapeutic developments by companies today require companion diagnostics so that’s a huge opportunity for the company, and so it may require only a limited amount of work by us in conjunction with a partner to bring about quite a significant commercial windfall”

Well, ....., and could that possible partner even be Roche ?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/14/us-roche-drugs-idUSKBN0FJ0HN20140714

[winner69]

Wih all these exciting developments - sales momentum building, new insurers, another patent, partnership with Roche on the cards - 2 bucks by Xmas on the cards

And don't forget the Edison Report soon

It's all go .....the squiggly line going to look good.

[Minerbarejet]

When is the report due out?we had an initial report that coverage was being initiated again and a valuation report would follow. Probably had it just about ready for release and along comes a gamechanging announcement.
"Soon" is my guess

[Tsuba]

Can I throw away my Rakon chart now. ;)

[winner69]

Can I through away my Rakon chart now. ;)

No because Rakon had little bursts of enthusiasm like this well along the way. Remember the common thing is investor / traders behaviour

We may look back in 6 months time and still say ......PEB price behaving just like Rakons did. Price does not equal value, its just a measurement of traders sentiment at any point in time.

[nextbigthing]

Perfect time to post that chart of investor sentiment on the graph if anybody has a copy. Where are we at now?

[Tsuba]

Strrrrrike ...... You took the bait Winner. ;)

[blobbles]

This is getting a bit ridiculous, probably going to sell what I bought sub 70's now. Seems to me traders be trading, SP is up on hopes and dreams again! I suspect it might come crashing down when the next sales report is released... good sell oppourtunity now for us nervous nellies (or those of us who need the cash and whose eyes are wide at the current price!). I suspect there will be good oppourtunity again to pick up more after the next sales report :-)

Are people waiting for the Edison Valuation to come out before this? Might cause another blip upwards if they say its undervalued (which means they bought more than they should @1.20+ and hope it gets back up there so they can sell without much losses!).

Would rather reinvest in a company that's not quite as risky in the current atmosphere. ATM have already gone past 100m in sales and are looking good for the next few years. Spare change might be invested on PEB dips as a short term play until real sales traction is gained.

[winner69]

Strrrrrike ...... You took the bate Winner. ;)

But you didn't reel me in though .....will be back for more of your fishing tricks

And by the way I prefer bait

[Tsuba]

But you didn't reel me in though .....will be back for more of your fishing tricks

And by the way I prefer bait

I stand corrected Winner. The science and technical subjects were my forte as apposed to English although I did pass.

[Xerof]

Perfect time to post that chart of investor sentiment on the graph if anybody has a copy. Where are we at now?

Not a very good description, Hope, but there you are.

although, reading winners posts, he's already at "excited":D

[sharp]

From this morning’s radio interview with David Darling on the melanoma test commercialisation;

“The melanoma test could reach the market relatively soon”

“This particular opportunity lends itself nicely to a partnership with a company that might be developing a drug for melanoma, and in such a situation they look for new tools which we call campaign diagnostics and they use those companion diagnostics to sort patients going into the clinical studies to make sure they are getting those patients that will respond to the treatment.”

“So if they can use this test to segregate patients with recent tumours then put them into their clinical study they can determine how their new therapeutic will work and then subsequently if that therapeutic gets through to the market they’ll use the companion diagnostic on every patient that comes along with a melanoma to determine whether or not they will respond to the drug.”

Most new therapeutic developments by companies today require companion diagnostics so that’s a huge opportunity for the company, and so it may require only a limited amount of work by us in conjunction with a partner to bring about quite a significant commercial windfall”

Well, ....., and could that possible partner even be Roche ?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/14/us-roche-drugs-idUSKBN0FJ0HN20140714

Sounds like PEB is already in talks with potential partners.

From what I understand, the pharmaceutical company carrying out the clinical trials will have to have their procedure including that of PEB's go through an ethics committee..

My question is does this test itself have to go through a clinical trial test?

[MAC]

Sounds like PEB is already in talks with potential partners.

From what I understand, the pharmaceutical company carrying out the clinical trials will have to have their procedure including that of PEB's go through an ethics committee..

My question is does this test itself have to go through a clinical trial test?

Yes, one would expect so, Pacific Edge will need to achieve regulatory approvals also to go fully commercial.

In the context of working with a partner, it may be that they sequence their respective trials and work toward commercialisation in parallel, over say at a guess, a 24 month duration.

Though, in the example I posted yesterday, Oryzon were provided with $21 million from Roche up front when the partnership was formed, plus an agreement for potential development, commercial and sales milestone payments that could exceed $500 million, together with tiered royalties on sales which range up to mid-double digits.

http://www.roche.com/research_and_de...2014-04-07.htm (http://www.roche.com/research_and_development/partnering/partnering-media/partnering_news-2014-04-07.htm)

All these sort of developments will have different values, however it does seem likely that a similar type of agreement may be reached between Pacific Edge and any prospective partner.

The commercial windfall comment this morning from David Darling was interesting in this context.

[ddrone]

Traders be trading. Large resistance at 96, I'm gonna look for another dip. Will likely need more good news to keep up the rise for now.

[skid]

If it cruses along at this level for a while till the next development thats fine --no need for greed--a bit of ''steady as she goes'' is not a bad thing.

[sharp]

Shall we have some fun and guess where the SP will end on today? and what it will be on open Monday?

[sharp]

Shall we have some fun and guess where the SP will end on today? and what it will be on open Monday?

I will start with...

Close 96c
Mon open 99c

[ddrone]

Shall we have some fun and guess where the SP will end on today? and what it will be on open Monday?

91 Close, open 94 Monday.

[Dentie]

Huljich selling out... I hope the share price now triples.

on another note sure to be some profit taking between now and the close.

Funnily enuff, I agree with you here snapiti. The nervous Nellie's often like to take their profit every few cents. Makes them feel like they have achieved something.

[sharp]

Time to see some action - nearing close of market.

To be honest, I'm looking for some opportunistic buying - the nervous nellies who will fund my next AMG.

[Xerof]

Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge [NZX: PEB] is probably being closely watched by bigger US medical companies waiting for a ripe opportunity to acquire, its chief executive David Darling believes.



a snippet from an NBR article just posted behind the paywall.

I don't think it will happen before todays close though.......

and waiting for snapiti to call it rhetoric

[sharp]

Cxbladderdetect is now being sold in the US, New Zealand, Australia, and soon in Spain. The second product in the programme, Cxbladdertriage, is scheduled for commercial release in New Zealand by the end of this year.

(© Copyright Protected - The National Business Review)

[sharp]

Cxbladderdetect is now being sold in the US, New Zealand, Australia, and soon in Spain. The second product in the programme, Cxbladdertriage, is scheduled for commercial release in New Zealand by the end of this year.

(© Copyright Protected - The National Business Review)

Wise to hold on more positive news on its way.

[sharp]

Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge [NZX: PEB] is probably being closely watched by bigger US medical companies waiting for a ripe opportunity to acquire, its chief executive David Darling believes.

well you have to admit he is pretty good at talking up the companies prospect.
Hopefully not just more rhetoric.

You'd hope so... a market capitalisation of $300M at its current SP of 94C.

I would certainly think a $300M or even a $500M buy is an acquisition that a major pharma could easily achieve - they are not shy to acquire and monopolise.

[NT001]

Without going behind the NBR paywall, the headline on their website says it pretty well:

Pacific Edge will be 'juicy nugget' for purchase: David Darling.

That being so, it really doesn't need a lot more proof of immediate marketing achievement by the Dunedin crew to keep the SP going up.

[nextbigthing]

Without going behind the NBR paywall, the headline on their website says it pretty well:

Pacific Edge will be 'juicy nugget' for purchase: David Darling.

That being so, it really doesn't need a lot more proof of immediate marketing achievement by the Dunedin crew to keep the SP going up.

Almost makes you wonder if a takeover has been his plan all along?

[nextbigthing]

Popcorn time!

[psychic]

Yawn. Prob gets offers every other day. (ducks)
What is actually behind the paywall? In what context was this statement made? We now believe everything in the NBR?

[nextbigthing]

Regardless of whether it's true or not, is that not very unprofessional to drop it like that? Almost another tens of thousands of tests moment.

Two good press releases followed by a favorable statement.... Familiar pattern? :D

[MAC]

Yawn. Prob gets offers every other day. (ducks)
What is actually behind the paywall? In what context was this statement made? We now believe everything in the NBR?

Well certainly when asked at the AGM, his response was that the company should have a few more runs on board first, but if a takeover was proposed shareholders would be informed. Could happen at anytime of course, but it was way more likely in 2011 and will be more likely again from 2017, less likely in between.

[skid]

Just a note for those long term holders at any cost--can you feel the difference between buying at 93 in a rising SP market,and buying (or holding)at 93 a while back in a falling market?--they are both 93 (and anything can happen)but this 93 is looking a whole lot rosier.

[MAC]

Just a note for those long term holders at any cost--can you feel the difference between buying at 93 in a rising SP ,and buying (or holding)at 93 a while back in a falling market?

Nope, short term sentiment curves are for short termers to follow,

Both up and down 93c is very good value, up to $1.40 IMO. Buy and sell fundamentals, use the sentiment of others as a tool for entry and exit when seldom so required.

In five years looking back those squiggles won't even get a mention on this thread, one year probably for that matter.

[Slam dunk]

The article makes it clear that Management aren't interested in the idea of selling at the moment. They're focussed on driving revenue for shareholders.

[Xerof]

Oh God, here we go again - sorry I even bothered to put the item on the thread. But I did say to wait for snapiti to call it rhetoric, and within a minute - sure enough........

To put it in context, he was talking years not Monday morning, and it is every biotech's dream to eventually be taken out by the pharmas, at a truly ridiculous price. I'm more than happy to wait for that day to arrive.

signing off for another 6 months - bibi

[NT001]

Interesting interview on Kim Hill's show this morning with the brilliant scientist Alan Cooper who made the point that scientists in NZ's CRI structure nowadays are required to spend so much time filling in time sheets and providing weekly reports on whether they've discovered anything that they can't actually focus on discovering anything. I sometimes wonder whether there's an element of such thinking on this thread ... Give us more daily sales reports please, DD, forget about getting on with what the company is obviously very good at. I realise this analogy is somewhat of an over-simplification, but still, IMHO ....

[skid]

Nope, short term sentiment curves are for short termers to follow,

Both up and down 93c is very good value, up to $1.40 IMO. Buy and sell fundamentals, use the sentiment of others as a tool for entry and exit when seldom so required.

In five years looking back those squiggles won't even get a mention on this thread, one year probably for that matter.

Dont agree that 93 down is such a great value--At least it didnt look so good to me (finally I bailed at 89) and (because ive always been interested in this share, reentered at 65 and I can tell you the 93 looks alot better this time than last--Im happier with my 65 good value than my 89(post 93 good value)--agree,things are looking alot better now and happy to hold.

[skid]

Interesting interview on Kim Hill's show this morning with the brilliant scientist Alan Cooper who made the point that scientists in NZ's CRI structure nowadays are required to spend so much time filling in time sheets and providing weekly reports on whether they've discovered anything that they can't actually focus on discovering anything. I sometimes wonder whether there's an element of such thinking on this thread ... Give us more daily sales reports please, DD, forget about getting on with what the company is obviously very good at. I realise this analogy is somewhat of an over-simplification, but still, IMHO ....

I agree just sales reports can be an over simplification NT, Other important things going on in the background.Like this Melanoma thing-(who saw that coming.)Are important also
Sales are obviously important,but not as important if you are about to sign up someone who is going to help you boost them,or take on a partner,etc.----I hope sales are ticking along-but what would really get my pulse racing is that someone established is maybe starting to take notice of little ole PEB.
Im hoping with the melanoma thing (and some signs that management are hard at it) that that scenario is becoming more likely.

[Carpenterjoe]

I know this is all old news, but it seems to be a rather international and reputable website.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/PH05051.htm

I read a similar article on The Australian website.

Seems our little Dunedin company is getting some international attention.

[MAC]

Could be lot’s more coming from the hot house too;

“Pacific Edge also has immediate and perpetual access to any cancer intellectual property emerging from the University of Otago’s Cancer Genetics Laboratory. This relationship has been in place from when Pacific Edge was formed in 2001. This represents a significant future asset.”

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/investors/intellectual-property/
http://www.otago.ac.nz/ctcr/research/diagnostic-tools/otago056099.html

That perpetual access is worth future gold I reckon, Pacific Edge could well be pumping out these bladder and melanoma kind of diagnostic test products for years.

It's also pleasing to have seen the company grow to cover the full vertical integration from University research, to product development, to product commercialisation, right through to international direct sales.

The ‘next big thing’ for me is to see that vertically integrated sausage machine start to ramp up the rate of product release over the next couple of years, funded perpetually from revenues and cashflow.

Aside, Hancock’s, they have that European patent for Thrombocytopenia also, perhaps that one is a bit further from development, or is it likely to be a royalties play do you think ?

[Carpenterjoe]

I wonder if the delay in Spain is subject to Oryzon's LSD-1 drug gaining approval.
And both products are released to compliment each other.
If this theory is in anyway correct, this will link back to Roche, who is a partner with Oryzon on LSD-1

It almost seems like a conflict, PEB using Oryzon to distribute, but Oryzon is partnered with Roche, Roche could almost be considered competition?

[Minerbarejet]

And seeing as we are on Companion Diagnostics , this from FierceDiagnostics
Report: Companion Testing Market Exceeded One Billion Dollars in 2013
The market for test and pharmaceutical pairs, known as companion diagnostics in the testing industry, has grown significantly. The global companion diagnostic market is valued at about $1.2 billion for 2013. This is up from $950 million in 2011, an increase of 12.5%. This statistic was cited in a new report from healthcare market research firm Kalorama Information, Companion Diagnostic Markets.
The report can be found at: http://www.kaloramainformation.com/redirect.asp?progid=86594&productid=8328701.
Companion diagnostics increase the probability of clinical success by identifying patients with the presence of biomarkers or disease-specific therapeutic targets that can dramatically improve outcomes. Companion diagnostics can also decrease costs by identifying the patient population that will most likely benefit from the therapy, and ruling out therapies that are not likely to be effective. This is especially critical given the cost of many new cancer therapies. Companion diagnostics also improve patient outcomes by selectively determining which patients will respond to therapy.
"One of the faster-growing testing areas in terms of revenues is drug/test pairs," according to Mary Ann Crandall, analyst for Kalorama Information. "The emergence of new technology has opened doors for companion diagnostic research, discovery, development and commercialization."
This market is a small part of several larger markets including the IVD market, the immunoassay market and the biomarker market, as all of these markets are intertwined. Kalorama made its market projection from extensive literature reviews and discussions with experts in the field, including microbiologists, pathologists, hospital authorities, reimbursement specialists, research scientists, business development managers and marketing managers.
"There had been a slow market uptake of companion diagnostics because companion tests lacked FDA approval, which prevented pharmaceutical companies from promoting the diagnostic," said Crandall. "But the realization that companion diagnostics can decrease costs by identifying the patient population that will most likely benefit from a therapy and ruling out those therapies not likely to be effective has made companion diagnostics important to the delivery of care."
Kalorama expects even more rapid revenue growth in this area of IVD over the next five years. Companion diagnostic development has become a primary area of focus for developers and many companion diagnostics are now successfully marketed with several of them part of a routine diagnostic and treatment plan.
Find Companion Diagnostic Markets in addition to other industry leading research from Kalorama Information at: http://www.kaloramainformation.com/.

[Carpenterjoe]

Cheers Hancocks,

Seems a little messy, much prefer the direct approach. Or the cellmid arrangement.
Could be sometime before they iron out the wrinkles.

I trust they have this all sorted

[Blue Horseshoe]

yep I am totally deluded but after good research I managed to sell out of this stock and I could have bought back, only a few months later, for a 50% discount to my average sell price.
Happy to be deluded.

No one went broke making a profit.

[Minerbarejet]

yep I am totally deluded but after good research I managed to sell out of this stock and I could have bought back, only a few months later, for a 50% discount to my average sell price.
Happy to be deluded.
For the last time -congratulations and extremely well done.
Now use some of your profits to get those crayfish checked out. I think they are a bit dodgy and giving you a bellyache.:)
Cheers
Miner

[Carpenterjoe]

Interesting read

http://www.rmresearch.com.au/wp-content/uploads/cellmid-3.pdf

[stoploss]

Interesting read

http://www.rmresearch.com.au/wp-content/uploads/cellmid-3.pdf

That report is 6 months old . CDY is still range bound .

[Carpenterjoe]

Yes, I was interested in details around royalties I didn't understand that every dollar cxbladder generates 2-4% could go to Cellmid, Also how these guys see sales growth rates and future price of the product.

[NT001]

That report is 6 months old . CDY is still range bound .

Yes but rangebound between about 2.3c and 3.7c, and trending up steadily in recent months without much news to go on. Could be a bit like PEB, just needing a nudge to start moving. And could be a target for takeover with all that IP.

[see weed]

Unrelated, just tried to say good bye to moosie, but got blocked, and the whole page of good bye's have been deleted.:ohmy:???

[Joshwnz]

Unrelated, just tried to say good bye to moosie, but got blocked, and the whole page of good bye's have been deleted.:ohmy:???
So has the sticky page for the chch ST gathering later in the month, it appears. Did moosie start these pages, and as his profile has gone, so has the pages he started?

[Derain]

What happened to moosie?

[Tsuba]

What happened to moosie?

Was going to ask the same question. Has he been a collective figment of everyones imagination.

Sounds like Snaps has answered that one. So bloody typical of us Kiwis. Tall poppy knockers for sure. Very sad.

[Whipmoney]

bullied off the site...
me thinks they call it the tall poppy syndrome.
very big loss to ST.

He'll be back under a different pseudonym (Goosie maybe...?) he's far too addicted to stay away.

[psychic]

What happened to moosie?

Lol, first post? welcome back Moosie?

[Derain]

lol no sorry I am not him, been here for a few months now just never posted anything. Was just curious as he appears to post about 25% of the posts on the forum.

[K1W1G0LD]

not exactly a member of Mensa are we with a comment like that.
no one bullied anybody , you need a thick skin on here or go back to your knitting.
Derain hit the nail on the head he appears to post about 25% of the posts on the forum
it was a coup that failed.

[evander]

Come back Moosie, I enjoy your posts. I'm with you Black knat. Go back to your cave Kiwigold.

[psychic]

This whole thing about having ST delete all posts/ forums started together with identity needs looking at I reckon. Stuffs up the flow of threads, deletes contributions made by others. Talk about throwing toys out the cot.
Tall poppy? lol.

[K1W1G0LD]

newguy your post is further confirmation that there really are some w@^kers on this site

nice, setting a good example for advanced members!!

[Rob Optimist]

Hi Guys, first post been watching for awhile, sorry to see Moosie disappear. Have enjoyed all the stirring.
Whats the pick for this week, bit of a drop today.

[Goldstein]

I'm somewhat appalled at this.

People have their own investing styles, views, information, backgrounds etc. All information and viewpoints are worthwhile. If you think they are not then you are becoming a very bad investor indeed.

I do this just as a hobby and feel I don't contribute much. I would like to make it my full-time occupation, but I know enough to know that I'd be kidding myself at the moment - and I'm pretty pushed to get my day job done. I have the utmost respect for those that do make a living off it as it seems to me to be an endeavour that cuts across many disciplines. ST has probably lost one such individual.

Have a long and prosperous future Moosie.

[mis chief]

w@^kers on this site

So, who's the biggest one now??? Moosie, I'll miss the fun

[Minerbarejet]

Does anyone have an opinion on the latest developments with an interesting little company called Pacific Edge. I hear it has announced a program to develop a prognosis test for melanoma which could become a companion prognostic for drug companies.
Any thoughts on this matter?

[Hoop]

......
Whats the pick for this week, bit of a drop today.

It was an interesting drop in price..rather large...eh? 94c to 88c...That drop has had no effect on the medium /longterm technicals...

However there is a technical worry, and that is PEB's rise failed to break through the EMA200 resistance currently at 96c

[Goldstein]

The interesting thing to me is that nothing material has changed for this company over the last week or so. It's possible the price will drop back on no news to the 78 - 82c rang it was in for a while. Any traders out there that are playing this one right must be smiling.

As an aside, I was a bit dissappointed in reading what Xerof posted about DD's reference to a buy out. Come on PEB, you've gone this far, back yourself.

Disc: Don't hold any, but on my radar.

[Minerbarejet]

The interesting thing to me is that nothing material has changed for this company over the last week or so. It's possible the price will drop back on no news to the 78 - 82c rang it was in for a while. Any traders out there that are playing this one right must be smiling.

As an aside, I was a bit dissappointed in reading what Xerof posted about DD's reference to a buy out. Come on PEB, you've gone this far, back yourself.

Disc: Don't hold any, but on my radar.Would you not consider the acceptance into a clinical trial with Kaiser Permanente and a granting of a Patent for Melanoma Prognosis as a reasonably significant change?
Sure, there will be some smiling traders probably balanced out by all the unsmiling ones that got it wrong.
It seems you are a bit of a fan of PEB. If you would like to give them a hand, buy some, and then as a shareholder you can help deny any takeovers by voting against it.:)


Disc: holding

[Goldstein]

Would you not consider the acceptance into a clinical trial with Kaiser Permanente and a granting of a Patent for Melanoma Prognosis as a reasonably significant change?
Sure, there will be some smiling traders probably balanced out by all the unsmiling ones that got it wrong.
It seems you are a bit of a fan of PEB. If you would like to give them a hand, buy some, and then as a shareholder you can help deny any takeovers by voting against it.:)


Disc: holding

Significant perhaps, but material no. A patent does not generate income until it is being used. A trial does not generate ongoing income in itself. My point is that the SP has surged on good news and fair enough. But nothing has happened to suggest sales are picking up.

I'm looking at buying some, just wary of the latest surge.

[Minerbarejet]

Significant perhaps, but material no. A patent does not generate income until it is being used. A trial does not generate ongoing income in itself. My point is that the SP has surged on good news and fair enough. But nothing has happened to suggest sales are picking up.

I'm looking at buying some, just wary of the latest surge.All good points. The possession of the patent adds to the not insignificant IP which has a value to a prospective buyer therefore it is material in that way. A trial, if successful and the results mean cxbladder is adopted and utilised by KP, will certainly be generating ongoing income.
As you say there has been very little on sales, only time will tell how good the sales are. If it is around 3700 since March to the end of September, that would do it for me.

[winner69]

What really matters - shareprice looking stronger today

Push through that 96 mark and then head to 110

That's how I see it

[luigi]

Some interesting stats on melanoma in the US here (http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm412802.htm).
"Melanoma, which accounts for approximately 5 percent of all new cancers in the United States, occurs when cancer cells form in skin cells that make the pigment responsible for color in the skin. According to the National Cancer Institute, an estimated 76,100 Americans will be diagnosed with melanoma and 9,710 will die from the disease this year."

And some further market info in this Forbes article (http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2014/09/05/cancer-drug-approval-is-a-triumph-for-merck-whats-next/).

Also read something interesting on this (http://investorplace.com/2014/09/merck-mrk-stock-keytruda/#.VA5QX_mSyao) site about it: "Although Merck stock didn’t soar on the heels of the news, the underlying biotechnology of the drug has the potential to push MRK higher for the long haul. Perhaps more important, the fact that Merck developed this drug from the ground up rather than acquiring it from another biotech player in the latter stages of its development says big pharma may well be getting back to its drug-development roots."

[klid]

What really matters - shareprice looking stronger today
Yes. I would have been extremely concerned had it not / will it not close, 90c plus today.
For now looks OK I guess at 91/92 with 92 being slowly eaten.

[skid]

A large cashed up company could make that patent pay off in spades,even if PEB cant--this is a multidimensional game here folks-- -sales are not the only factor in play here--I dont want to detract from the importance of sales--but the game has changed a bit--there are potentially more opportunities and Imo its beneficial to adjust to that.
We are not in the same place as we were just after the announcement of disappointing sales,last quarter.
Good or bad sales will of course have an effect on the SP,but the core value of the company has become a bit more solid ,I believe.

[Goldstein]

I've lost somebody very close through melanoma a year ago. Once it reaches stage 3 there are regular trips to the oncologist and anything odd then it's off for a CAT/PET scan or fine-needle aspiration of surrounding lymph nodes. The patient is pushed to the top of the list for these protocols. Metastatic melanoma is extremely nasty and can kill in a matter of weeks. I doubt oncologists would rely on an 'aggressiveness indicator'. That's a lot to pin on a test when you already know the cancer has metastasised.

[Goldstein]

Thanks for you words guys.

In my case there was about 2-3 years in stage 3 - and this was when there was a full exam every 3 months. I'm not sure what else could have been done. When stage 4 was reached they were ellible for one of the BRAF inhibitor drug trials as there was a measurable 'distant' tumour - against which they could test the efficacy of the drug.

They called the disease dormant in that 2-3 year period. If PEB's patented agressiveness test had been carried out, I'm not sure this would have altered what the oncologist did. It all seemed very prescriptive. Keep testing the disease progression, then implement whatever protocol was recommended at that stage.

Some others have commented on the inertia that needs to be overcome in order for urologists to change the way they do things and incorporate CX-Bladder into their diagnostic and care protocols. I suspect this would be a harder battle with melanoma where there really is a chop and test mentality.

Anyway, I still think PEB has merit, I'm just being cautious about entering what could be a little price bubble. Then again knowing my background I'll sit and watch the price head north.

[Goldstein]

Oncologists really do want to treat cancer patients appropriately; and, a chop and test mentality may be a bit of a harsh comment. They can only use the tools available to them today.

This wasn't meant to be a criticism of oncologists - the disease requires it, and as you say it is the only tools available today. To inhibit the tumours in the lung a procedure called a pleurodesis was done - abrading the pleural cavity so that it fuses to the outside of the lung. So apart from the drug trial it was all chop, test, irradiate.

It would be good to hear an oncologist's perspective rather than just David Darling's words on these announcements - but perhaps they would be accused then of having a pet oncologist.

[MAC]

Yep, it is not the initial sales crumbs to independent urologists that matters, not one bit, it’s the prospective HMO, Medicare and insurer contracts that matter, and its Pacific Edge’s progress toward achieving these that is important.

Consider the prospective Kaiser Permanente contract;

Number of KP members: 9.5M
Population of the USA: 315M
Potential number of US tests p.a: 2M
Anticipated Cxbladder price point: US$550

Prospective annual KP contract = (9.5/315) x 2 x 550 = US$33M revenues per annum

This figure probably represents a maximum contract take up, but still even a conservative US$10 to US$20M estimate would still represent a meaningful expectation.

This one contract alone by itself will make Pacific Edge profitable. Five to ten of these contracts won over the duration of the five year plan, and there’s the $100M goal met.

Shareholders patiently awaiting these contracts will be the one's rewarded, those fretting and squabbling over the initial sales crumbs, well, who knows about them.

[craic]

In a sober moment some time ago I suggested that the best thing with PEB was to sell up and join SPK, make your fortune and then waste your money on this morbid share. I think it was good advice, anyone agree? This is not one of my most sober moments.

[ziggy415]

In a sober moment some time ago I suggested that the best thing with PEB was to sell up and join SPK, make your fortune and then waste your money on this morbid share. I think it was good advice, anyone agree? This is not one of my most sober moments.

you should try drinking A2 milk :D at least you,d be up and back on this thread..ha ha....like you i was a skeptic about peb...happy to read this thread but not really invest....does look like it maybe gaining traction but still waiting to see sales...am happy for the believers tho...nice up spike in sp

[sharp]

I would say DYOR - but then again... What research? This is speculative and a punt on the success of CxBladder and the other products they have in their pipeline.

On a side note, looks like the SP is sitting on a tipping scale going from the pattern in the last couple days after the US patent announcement.

[psychic]

I would say DYOR - but then again... What research? This is speculative and a punt on the success of CxBladder and the other products they have in their pipeline.

On a side note, looks like the SP is sitting on a tipping scale going from the pattern in the last couple days after the US patent announcement.

Think you will find that those who have researched PEB well consider it a lot less speculative than those that have not...

Tipping point? What is tippy about it?

[sharp]

Think you will find that those who have researched PEB well consider it a lot less speculative than those that have not...

Tipping point? What is tippy about it?

Good products, it may be, and an achievable sales target but yet to see decent revenue.

Tipping point - see charts for yourself - nb. low volumes though.

[MAC]

Think you will find that those who have researched PEB well consider it a lot less speculative than those that have not.

Agree with that Psychic, one can become bounded by all that one does not know,

As with all growth stocks, DCF calculate the potential, assess the risks as acceptable and manage them with good ongoing research and diversification. It’s all about the risk/reward position.

Biotech’s are pretty well fully de-risked when they first become profitable, the shareprice doesn’t go in a straight line but it will go there. Circa $2.95 FY16 de-risked is my estimate. An investor can buy now during a gift dip or conservatively wait until 2016 and buy at $2.95 at a lower risk point, each to their own.

A Kaiser Permanente contract alone will do it, else probably the accrued Medicare revenues plus network provider revenues.


Edit: De-risked valuations clarified

FY15 De-risked $2.50
FY16 De-risked $2.95

Basis: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Limited-(PEB)&p=499894#post499894

[MAC]

I agree wholeheartedly Psychic & MAC, and the number of Americans covered; or, who have access to CxBladder because of the agreements signed with Pacific Edge Limited is:

MultiPlan 68,000,000
FedMed 40,000,000
ACPN 14,000,000
Kaiser 9,500,000
Stratose 8,600,000

TOTAL 140,000,000

add to that CMS 100,000,000 when they sign and it looks like we will have 240,000,000​

I’ve been looking at the other HMO’s too;

Some are quite large, well up the fortune 500 list, Blue Cross Blue Shield is an affiliation of 37 organisations in its own right.



Aetna

13.6M



Blue Cross Blue Shield

105.0M



CIGNA

0.6M



Kaiser Permanente

9.5M



Priority Health

0.6M



Humana

13.0M



Health Net

6.6M



United Health Group

85.0M



WellPoint

37.0M



WellCare Health

2.2M



Intermountain

0.7M




Kaiser Permanente have gone first, as we know, Pacific Edge have made it onto the radar of at least three others that I’m aware of, probably more, Blue Cross Blue Shield, Priority Health and Aetna, each of whom presently have Cxbladder listed at this time as not covered.

As I understand though this seems to be common when new diagnostic products first enter the marketplace and means these HMO’s have acknowledged that Cxbladder is commercially available but have not yet clinically evaluated or contractually entered into an agreement.

A user programme for each and away we go, though PEB have allowed five whole years to win a humble 10% of the HMO’s over.

https://www.bcbsnc.com/assets/services/public/pdfs/medicalpolicy/urinary_tumor_markers_for_bladder_cancer.pdf
https://www.priorityhealth.com/provider/manual/auths/~/media/documents/medical-policies/91562.pdf
http://www.aetna.com/cpb/medical/data/300_399/0352.html

[Toasty]

I agree wholeheartedly Psychic & MAC, and the number of Americans covered; or, who have access to CxBladder because of the agreements signed with Pacific Edge Limited is:

MultiPlan 68,000,000
FedMed 40,000,000
ACPN 14,000,000
Kaiser 9,500,000
Stratose 8,600,000

TOTAL 140,000,000

add to that CMS 100,000,000 when they sign and it looks like we will have 240,000,000​

Are these all unique potential customers or can they be recorded under more than one entity?

[MAC]

Excerpt from the Chairman’s speech for those that were not at the AGM or have not seen the transcript.

6235

A fair distinction too between molecular diagnostics and pharma litigiously, no consumed chemical drugs or invasive procedures with Pacific Edge to go horribly wrong, just a repeatable test performed by equipment in a controlled environment.

Gawd, there are some in NZ though that can’t even figure out the difference between accounting software and biotech, both have a “tech” and a squiggly line, must be the same then, just shows how screwed up some must be when it comes to investment sense.

[MAC]

Are these all unique potential customers or can they be recorded under more than one entity?

It's like this, network providers like FedMed on the left side, HMO's like Kaiser Permanente on the right side;

6236

[Minerbarejet]

Massive turnover to start the day:)

[winner69]

Massive turnover to start the day:)

And building nicely too

[MAC]

It can depend on which commercialisation path Pacific Edge choose to take, two clearly stand out;

Path 1: To work a melanoma test product through a similar development and commercialisation sequence as Cxbladder which would take 18 to 24 months for clinical trials and regulatory approvals. It would probably be over two years before we saw any revenues.

Path 2: To sign up with a partner, whilst this would also take 18 to 24 months to commercialise a product into the market, Pacific Edge may actually begin to monetise the product much much earlier than that.

These types of partnership agreements tend to include a lump sum payment to the developer (Pacific Edge) upon partnership agreement signing, and then further payments at specific development and commercialisation milestones at agreed steps along the way.

There is some evidence that suggest Pacific Edge may take this direction and maybe presently pursuing it at this time,

David Darling recently told us ’This particular opportunity lends itself nicely to a partnership with a company that might be developing a drug for melanoma”

And this, “it may require only a limited amount of work by us in conjunction with a partner to bring about quite a significant commercial windfall”.

This windfall may well be a multimillion dollar lump sum payment made upon partnership singing.

IMO all this could well happen sooner rather than later as there are a couple of quite advanced potential companion Melanoma drugs entering clinical trials at present, the companion opportunity may be lost if Pacific Edge leave the melanoma product on the shelf for over two years.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Limited-(PEB)&p=502729&highlight=windfall#post502729

[MAC]

Oh I should have better clarified, I also don't think the completion of the Pacific Edge clinical trial will be soon, perhaps a year away at least, but the signing of a partnership agreement and initial lump sum payment may well be much sooner and could happen at any time now (months).

Many of these partnership agreements are made pre diagnostic clinical trial, thus allowing both companion diagnostic and drug products to advance in parallel progressively toward becoming a commercialised product suite.

As I understand, multiple, increasingly more comprehensive clinical trials are often required in bringing drugs to the pharmacy counter. Only one clinical trial is typically required for companion diagnostic test products. So the timing seems about right for a sign up with one of the pharma’s about here, perhaps Roche.

The pharma potentially enters the relationship based on an evaluation of Pacific Edge patents, IP, research and technology. Pacific Edge enter on their assessment of the pharma’s preliminary trials.

Such agreements typically provide milestone payments upon signing, during the late research and development phase and then royalties once in the market place.

Pacific Edge have the US patent now which steers the pharma’s toward them and away from the competitors. The pharma’s presently entering a clinical trial stage or which are in the early clinical trial stage, may well will be looking at PEB like they are a roast dinner.

[Minerbarejet]

Thats what I like about this thread, its so peaceful, with a couple of well informed posters putting out positive and constructive debate.

It does seem to me though that this melanoma test has been moved forward quite a bit in the pipeline so it can become available to any drug manufacturer, and there are many, who may wish to establish the agressiveness before proceeding with trials. It would perhaps be unwise to make any binding contracts with one company alone. Others may be more successful with their drug eventually but would have been quicker with access to the PEB test.

[Carpenterjoe]

OK MAC, I agree with that, a clinical trial for a prognostic test is data gathering for effectiveness & utility i.e. sensitivity, specificity etc. (the drama) and is quite straight forward (compared to drug trials) if you get the samples at a good rate. The clinical trial for CxBladder took two years to get the 485 patient samples from 11 urology clinics across Australasia, 2007 – 2009 then the numbers need to be crunched i.e. positive, negative or maybe and was published 2012.

A clinical trial for a drug is much more involved because it is effectiveness, utility, dosage, side effects etc. and you could wait months or even years to even see if the drug gives results, so the prognostic test could be through the trial long before the drug. But, it was still an exciting bit of news and it should be a good earner one day.

Is it likely that competitive conflicts could effect possible partnerships?

[Carpenterjoe]

I really do not know, but it is a good point; there may well be conflicts. Pacific Edge need tumour samples to undertake a clinical trial, so whether it is a drug company in conjunction with their trial; or, surgeons that provide samples for the Ludwig Institute (USA) the trial doesn’t care.

As Miner points out, will it be an exclusive deal? I wish we knew, unfortunately, we will guess until a market release comes out and then we will say “of course it was so obvious”

This issue is a small concern of mine, now that PEB are going it alone with cxbladder, it might make it difficult to get agreements with companion drug developers whom already have partnerships with the big players. PE might need to start developing treatments, not just diagnostic tests! Think I need to do some research into companion agreements.

[MAC]

This issue is a small concern of mine, now that PEB are going it alone with cxbladder, it might make it difficult to get agreements with companion drug developers whom already have partnerships with the big players. PE might need to start developing treatments, not just diagnostic tests! Think I need to do some research into companion agreements.

Here’s an interesting read on companion diagnostics, it’s an older article from early on when the concept was formative and explains it all well, a quick google will find more.

http://www.genomeweb.com/dxpgx/companion-diagnostics-take

I’m not sure I buy into any colourful conspiracy theories Carpenterjoe. Successful examples of pharmaceutical companies, I assume they are the big players you refer to, signing up with specialist molecular diagnostic companies just like Pacific Edge are really not very hard to find.

In addition to the Oryzon/Roche agreement I posted last week, here’s some agreements found without effort;

http://www.fiercebiotech.com/press-releases/qiagen-unit-and-pfizer-enter-agreement-develop-companion-diagnostic-brain-tumor-pat-0
http://biocartis.com/news/article/biocartis-and-abbott-announce-exclusive-partnership-to-develop-multiplex-companion-diagnostics-tests
http://investor.myriad.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=773387

[Carpenterjoe]

Here’s an interesting read on companion diagnostics, it’s an older article from early on when the concept was formative and explains it all well, a quick google will find more.

http://www.genomeweb.com/dxpgx/companion-diagnostics-take

I’m not sure I buy into any colourful conspiracy theories Carpenterjoe. Successful examples of pharmaceutical companies, I assume they are the big players you refer to, signing up with specialist molecular diagnostic companies just like Pacific Edge are really not very hard to find.

In addition to the Oryzon/Roche agreement I posted last week, here’s some agreements found without effort;

http://www.fiercebiotech.com/press-releases/qiagen-unit-and-pfizer-enter-agreement-develop-companion-diagnostic-brain-tumor-pat-0
http://biocartis.com/news/article/biocartis-and-abbott-announce-exclusive-partnership-to-develop-multiplex-companion-diagnostics-tests
http://investor.myriad.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=773387

Cheers Mac,

I'll give these a read sometime.
Defiantly not into conspiracy theories, but basic business logic, of not supporting your competition. PEB are now in direct competition with the big boys, the likes of Abbotts and any other large enterprise developing or selling bladder diagnostics. I really don't know enough about it, but I will soon

[Carpenterjoe]

On a side note, I'm thinking of becoming a tiny Cellmid shareholder to allow me to attend the AGM here in Sydney. Just interested in your thoughts? Waste of time or not?

[klid]

On a side note, I'm thinking of becoming a tiny Cellmid shareholder to allow me to attend the AGM here in Sydney. Just interested in your thoughts? Waste of time or not?
I saw 8c+ a share valuation somewhere recently which ignited my interest.

[NT001]

On a side note, I'm thinking of becoming a tiny Cellmid shareholder to allow me to attend the AGM here in Sydney. Just interested in your thoughts? Waste of time or not?

Good thinking, since you're there on the spot, CJ. I bought a few the other day (they're quite low at present), just to add to my perspective on PEB. I think many of us could be interested in what comes out of the AGM, as they do seem pretty keen on the relationship with PEB and also have quite a few other irons in the fire that are kind of relevant to the PEB product portfolio.

[skid]

This issue is a small concern of mine, now that PEB are going it alone with cxbladder, it might make it difficult to get agreements with companion drug developers whom already have partnerships with the big players. PE might need to start developing treatments, not just diagnostic tests! Think I need to do some research into companion agreements.

I wouldnt take that going it alone as the gospel--Its an ever changing world out there.
That may be the strategy right now -but an offer on the table that benefits both parties should never be ruled out.

[Dentie]

Damn traders ...can't bear to see the SP go up more than 2c before they start to panic and hit "sell"...

[MAC]

A picture says it all Dentie,

The short termers have finally figured out what the office stink was. All that posting accounting data to PEB is small plastic jars and urinating in their desktops was probably the give away in the end.

6243

[klid]

A picture says it all Dentie,

The short termers have finally figured out what the office stink was. All that posting accounting data to PEB is small plastic jars and urinating in their desktops was probably the give away in the end.

6243

I think it is important to note XRO drop today on the news, it should still have some influence here as far as sells go?

[winner69]

A picture says it all Dentie,

The short termers have finally figured out what the office stink was. All that posting accounting data to PEB is small plastic jars and urinating in their desktops was probably the give away in the end.

6243

Been a good couple of months eh Mac

And it hasn't even got to 110 yet .....soon hopefully

[Minerbarejet]

I think it is important to note XRO drop today on the news, it should still have some influence here as far as sells go?
Lets try the other way and say Jackie Walker resigned from PEB.
Do you really think that would affect the XRO share price?:)

[Tsuba]

Lets try the other way and say Jackie Walker resigned from PEB.
Do you really think that would affect the XRO share price?:)

I love the cut of your gib Miner. ;)

[Minerbarejet]

considering she was stupid enough to say, at the latest AGM, that PEB have no competition in their space for bladder tests one could easily assume if she choose to resign from PEB that it would have no effect on PEB's share price either.
Silly girl........ but probably just taking the lets talk it up led from the bosses.:pJeez, sorry I spoke.

[Tsuba]

Jeez, sorry I spoke.

Schnaps must have had a bad day fishing.

[skid]

Damn traders ...can't bear to see the SP go up more than 2c before they start to panic and hit "sell"...

Easy there buddy--people do what they do--its cruising along in the 90s--not to much happening atm

[skid]

There will be a rugby game this sat -''no holds barred'' between the long term holders and the traders--could get ugly folks -----i will be on the side lines watching the two battle it out ----disc.-Im holding ,but not necessarily in either camp:)

[Dentie]

No he is just a d...head.

hehehe...now I can keep my powder dry.

If Snapiti had had the pleasure of talking with Jackie for the 30 or 40 mins that I did - and the freedom she showed in answering my questions, he would realise what an asset she is for PEB. It was also a measure of DD & CS's professionalism that they gave her the freedom to speak her mind and answer any questions without worry.

Maybe Snap's wetsuit is getting a bit tight for him to get off?

[psychic]

Has PEB's website crashed?

[Minerbarejet]

I cant get it either.
Probably so much interest the server cant handle it:)

[mis chief]

considering she was stupid enough to say, at the latest AGM, that PEB have no competition in their space for bladder tests one could easily assume if she choose to resign from PEB that it would have no effect on PEB's share price either.
Silly girl........ but probably just taking the lets talk it up led from the bosses.:p

Just can't help yourself, can you. Me mum used to say, if you can't say anything nice, SHUTUP. What gives you the right to call someone stupid? Give it a break.

If you can't do that, at least work on your grammar.

[Xerof]

Don't forget Snap has only heard chinese whispers and an out-of-context sound bite of what JW said.

You guys who were at the meeting have the privilege of knowing that what she was really saying was the competition is so bad, we wipe our arse with it. In other words there is no real competition in this space, waxed them, thrashed, crushed

[Minerbarejet]

it was but I just had it tailored... must of shrunk in the wash.Yes, I find that too, some things are very hard to get off after going through the wash.
I dont know if you have heard but recently I came across an article that said some people actually take their clothes off before washing them. :blush:
I must say I find the spin cycle a bit annoying though especially the second time.

[winner69]

When the hell s that much touted subscribed for Edison Report coming out

They just released one on Comvita with a valuation 24% higher Han current price

Of course the PEB one is going to come in with a bigger premium - somewhere between $1.40 to $1.70

That would be great ....could be enough to break through that resistance at $1.10

Come on Edison - get your a into gear

[Minerbarejet]

When the hell s that much touted subscribed for Edison Report coming out

They just released one on Comvita with a valuation 24% higher Han current price

Of course the PEB one is going to come in with a bigger premium - somewhere between $1.40 to $1.70

That would be great ....could be enough to break through that resistance at $1.10

Come on Edison - get your a into gearThey are recycling mate. That last melanoma announcement would have shifted the goalposts a bit.

[robbo24]

yes I tend to agree with you.
My post have not been very insightful on this thread of late.
That's because I have stopped researching PEB...

*Door shuts behind snapiti*

Right, next topic.

[mis chief]

sorry I don't fulfill your need to only hear the things you want to hear. I suppose that is best left up to the PEB management..... after all they are very good at it.
Anyway someone has to interrupt the pleb's persistent cheer leading posts.:p

I read this forum to learn about investing. I am ambivalent regarding PEB, and have no reason to champion it, or otherwise, as you idiotically suggest. The biggest thing I have learned very quickly here is some people are utter boors. And repetitive, rhetorical writings are absolutely boring. What I object to are comments aimed at people often not in a position to defend themselves to you, not that they should have to, and I'm amazed that you think it is acceptable to do this. It appears that you have a deep hatred of all things PEB, the business, product/s, people, and one has to wonder why.

Odd how you go immediately into your spiteful mode when someone challenges you. You go too far with your supercilious assumption that you don't fulfill my need to hear anything from you, but noted is the fact that you do this on a regular basis in your posts when challenged.

A few quotes spring to mind:

“If you find it hard to laugh at yourself, I would be happy to do it for you.”Groucho Marx (http://www.sarcasmsociety.com/sarcastic-quotes/groucho-marx.html)
“Some cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go.”Oscar Wilde
(http://www.sarcasmsociety.com/sarcastic-quotes/oscar-wilde.html)“What have you been reading, the Gospel According to St. Bastard?”Eddie Izzard
(http://www.sarcasmsociety.com/sarcastic-quotes/eddie-izzard.html)“Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.”Unknown (http://www.sarcasmsociety.com/sarcastic-quotes/unknown.html)
A sarcastic person has a superiority complex that can be cured only by the honesty of humility.

Lawrence G. Lovasik (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/l/lawrence_g_lovasik.html)

[BFG]

Edison recently upgraded their forecast price on LNG from $1.10 to $1.90... after the share price had hit $4.30.

I hear they also have quite large assumptions about a certain colycanthian liver oil producer.

Seems that they take the motto: "miss by an inch, miss by a mile" quite seriously.

Wouldn't be placing too much emphasis on their paid for research. I paid a monkey once to do my accounting for the year. It got done, but cleaning the s*** off the ceiling fan ate into my refund horrendously!!!

[Minerbarejet]

In the interests of higher learning could you please explain " colycanthian" as google doesn't seem to have heard of it.
Just interested. Its either cod liver oil in reference to SEA or snake oil perhaps in a different context.
Cheers

[ziggy415]

Biosimilars are “something many people have been waiting for for a decade or more,” said Michael Kleinrock, director of research development at the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics. “There are a number of uncertainties surrounding these applications. The attitudes of doctors, insurers and patients are far from clear and it will take several years to see how this evolves.”

an article from bloomberg news....seems doctors are slow to change....could show just how hard for PEB to break into USA......dont shoot me ...just the messanger

[ziggy415]

“Some cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go.”Oscar Wilde (http://www.sarcasmsociety.com/sarcastic-quotes/oscar-wilde.html)

classic...i love it.....must remember that when the rellies come round :t_up:

[ziggy415]

If you just post irrelevant snippets of articles of other medical sectors and then add an unrelated comment without any validation, it’s not much use really is it?

Here is the full article.

HyperLink: $250 Billion in Biotech Drug Savings on Brink of Arrival (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/-250-billion-in-biotech-drug-savings-on-brink-of-arrival.html)
It may be irrelevant to you but to me it indicates that trying to break into usa market is hard for everybody....if usa medical procedures find it hard to break into usa markets it going to be damned hard for Peb.....I thought Peb investors with an open mind may have found it interesting.....

[MAC]

Sounds like the USA must have become a bank vault, hard to break into.

It’s actually a tale of three vertically integrated organisations, two of which are New Zealand based, University of Otago and PEB, and the other PEDusa which is a US company full staffed and managed by local expertise with really very good within sector prior experience, if one cares to read the CV’s.

Nothing to break into Ziggy, PEDusa already exists, it’s early days, and they may and should just grow like any other US start-up company with great potential. On deck too with a first mover advantage and the best tech available in the bladder cancer diagnostic market.

[cammo]

I hear they also have quite large assumptions about a certain colycanthian liver oil producer.

I believe he means Coelocanth

[winner69]

Still reckon that 110 is a good target for this uptrend.

After that time to reassess because it has been strong resistance in the past and fundamentally more than fair value at this stage of PEBs evolvement

This is pure trend following. Nothing to do with what PEB does or whatever. That is all 'noise' at the moment. I ignore all that and just follow the sentiment of the broader market (whether it be right, wrong, irrational or exuberant or whatever - that does not worry me)

A ~60% profit will be good. More than half way there already and unless something drastic really happens more than 30% locked in.

The trend is your friend

That's my story anyway and I sticking to it.

[ziggy415]

Still reckon that 110 is a good target for this uptrend.

After that time to reassess because it has been strong resistance in the past and fundamentally more than fair value at this stage of PEBs evolvement

This is pure trend following. Nothing to do with what PEB does or whatever. That is all 'noise' at the moment. I ignore all that and just follow the sentiment of the broader market (whether it be right, wrong, irrational or exuberant or whatever - that does not worry me)

A ~60% profit will be good. More than half way there already and unless something drastic really happens more than 30% locked in.

The trend is your friend

That's my story anyway and I sticking to it.
Winner, without trying to sound dumb, if you hadn,t circled the death cross i wouldnt have known it was one but it certainly meant something to a lot of people because the sp did drop but why the sp climb when no news to kick off un up trend... what triggers the climb

[digger]

[QUOTE=ziggy415;504512]Winner, without trying to sound dumb, if you hadn,t circled the death cross i wouldnt have known it was one but it certainly meant something to a lot of people because the sp did drop but why the sp climb when no news to kick off un up trend... what triggers the climb[/QUOTE

A life cross.

[MAC]

A short term view but it would be nice to see a longer term trend line form off regular announcements now.

The thing is though that customer agreements can also occur at anytime, each agreement that comes along should in theory cement another step up toward de-risked valuation, but one can’t predict the timing unless your name is Jackie Walker.

That five year goal of $100M in revenues may well be met with just a handful of agreements, perhaps even just 10 or 15 across that whole five year time frame, Kaiser Permanente first and onward upward on a curve from there.

Potentially companion diagnostic windfall agreements along the way for the prognosis products, melanoma and colorectal. And, of course a release at some point of the revenues accrued with Medicare.

Most of the larger shareholders, perhaps with the exception of Huljich, seem to be content to keep Pacific Edge as a long term bottom draw holding, rightfully so IMO as I’ve a de-risked valuation of FY16 $2.95 excluding pipeline commercialisation.

Profitability and de-risking may well be just 12 to 18 months away now, be nice to see a more confident line toward that point now that the market seems more satisfied with early progress.

[Minerbarejet]

Winner, without trying to sound dumb, if you hadn,t circled the death cross i wouldnt have known it was one but it certainly meant something to a lot of people because the sp did drop but why the sp climb when no news to kick off un up trend... what triggers the climb
New guy turning bullish?:D

[ziggy415]

A short term view but it would be nice to see a longer term trend line form off regular announcements now.

The thing is though that customer agreements can also occur at anytime, each agreement that comes along should in theory cement another step up toward de-risked valuation, but one can’t predict the timing unless your name is Jackie Walker.

That five year goal of $100M in revenues may well be met with just a handful of agreements, perhaps even just 10 or 15 across that whole five year time frame, Kaiser Permanente first and onward upward on a curve from there.

Potentially companion diagnostic windfall agreements along the way for the prognosis products, melanoma and colorectal. And, of course a release at some point of the revenues accrued with Medicare.

Most of the larger shareholders, perhaps with the exception of Huljich, seem to be content to keep Pacific Edge as a long term bottom draw holding, rightfully so IMO as I’ve a de-risked valuation of FY16 $2.95 excluding pipeline commercialisation.

Profitability and de-risking may well be just 12 to 18 months away now, be nice to see a more confident line toward that point now that the market seems more satisfied with early progress.
Mac how do you put a de-risked price for fy 16 when we have no sales at present.....I understand if only one provider goes with cx bladder they wont just buy a couple of kits, probably more like a couple of thousand kits so i can see sales climbing quickly but until such time it is only guesswork...or am i missing something....besides a brain i mean

[MAC]

All questions are fair Ziggy, DCF analysis based on market research and company advised goals and other pertinent information is the answer, my last valuation basis was here;

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Limited-(PEB)&p=499894#post499894

Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.

I’ve posted these links on the thread before, worth a read if you have the time and some inclination.

https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_us/us/insights/b6115312b90fb110VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/biotechvaluation.asp)

[winner69]

Winner, just a question about the charts, I am not a TA follower but interested all the same. It looks like you are picking 1.10 on the basis of the stable period in April to mid May - your dotted blue line. If you go back a little further to Novemberish last year there is an earlier and longer stable period around 1.25. Why would one not go back to that period for the target? Thanks in advance.

One step at a time. I see 110 as the first major resistance level.

When (if) the price gets to 110 time to reassess. If the price breaks through 110 yes the next target is about 125. But lets get to 110 before worrying about that

Nothing certain in life. Could turn to custard again next week and go below 70 again.

[nextbigthing]

Nothing certain in life.

Death and taxes.

[ziggy415]

All questions are fair Ziggy, DCF analysis based on market research and company advised goals and other pertinent information is the answer, my last valuation basis was here;

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Limited-(PEB)&p=499894#post499894

Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.

I’ve posted these links on the thread before, worth a read if you have the time and some inclination.

https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_us/us/insights/b6115312b90fb110VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/biotechvaluation.asp)
thanks mac...have read 100% of articles... understood 50%.....still seems bit hit and miss to me....one question...if i am suspected of bladder cancer ,how many kits would i use till im cured or put away my knife and fork.....ie..$20,000 worth of drug a year for 5 years is a lot more than say half dozen test kits

[winner69]

thanks will do... mostly moosie PM me through his new ST acc.

Blue Dog is a Complex person eh?

[MAC]

thanks mac...have read 100% of articles... understood 50%.....still seems bit hit and miss to me....one question...if i am suspected of bladder cancer ,how many kits would i use till im cured or put away my knife and fork.....ie..$20,000 worth of drug a year for 5 years is a lot more than say half dozen test kits

Well, it would depend if you are even diagnosed and on how you responded to treatment, after just a couple of Cxbladder tests you may have been triaged and sent home to have a happy life, if your cancer is progressive there could be very many more.

Here’s a quick calculation based on US market figures;

Number of potential tests per annum (Pacific Edge): 2,000,000
Number of new cancer patients per annum (Cancer Society): 74,690
Number of people presenting with haematuria each year (Pacific Edge): 1,000,000

If the 1,000,000 haematuria patients are screened with a single test each and 74,690 of them are found to have bladder cancer, than the average cancer patient will receive

(2,000,000 – 1,000,000) / 74,690 = 13.3 tests each

That may sound like a lot of tests but one must consider there are at least seven value propositions, and as bladder cancer has a very high recurrence rate, this figure will include ongoing monitoring tests potentially for a duration of several years in some cases.

6246

[Beagle]

What do you PEB bulls make of Darling and co getting a sweetheart deal for millions of in the money options free of charge ?
Move out of the way I want to get my snout further in the trough first or a good example of incentivising key management ?

[skid]

What would the SP have to get to for their options to be viable?

Its obniusly a very different game than an outright raise

[biker]

What do you PEB bulls make of Darling and co getting a sweetheart deal for millions of in the money options free of charge ?
Move out of the way I want to get my snout further in the trough first or a good example of incentivising key management ?

What about the PEB bears? They might have a view also.

IMO, bull or bear, a good example of incentivising AND rewarding key management

[MAC]

Seems in line with David Darling having been successfully elected as a director a few weeks ago at the AGM. Well deserved after many years of service already, options at 80c shows confidence also.

Directors need a bit of both skin and incentive, all good.

[biker]

What would the SP have to get to for their options to be viable?

Its obniusly a very different game than an outright raise

Issued at 80c

[Intel]

What about the PEB bears? They might have a view also.

IMO, bull or bear, a good example of incentivising AND rewarding key management

I am not against it personally as the current SP has baked in a certain level of success with this business and at 80c they should be rewarded for making that happen.

It is a reasonably chunky amount, but I would have preferred options based on sales $ in the first instance so they are rewarded on achieving what they state ($100m), instead of what the market implies they will do. My view anyway. Compensation initiatives are always tricky and there is never a solution that explicitly aligns interests correctly, unfortunately.

[Carpenterjoe]

From a regular Cx bladder user.

My latest (1st Sept) CxBladder result is back: and lower than last time - 0.04, down from 0.05. Alas, due to my urine having a high level of leukocytes (white blood cells), due to my laser prostatectomy on 12th August, I cannot do an NMP-22. The CxBladder test is indifferent to this contamination.

http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.com.au/

[loon]

The latest "Listener" magazine has a full page ad. for Cxbladder.

[NT001]

-
The 2014 annual report for the Australian diagnostics company Cellmid (CDY.AX) with which PEB has an important licensing agreement for CxBladder was released yesterday at

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140916/pdf/42s7pbs2pfzr1s.pdf

There are several references to PEB's success in developing CxBladder, particularly around pages 6-7.

[skid]

Im a bit confused what your saying here Hancocks--Your saying these tests will save lives ,reduce costs etc etc-but your saying they have dropped cervical cancer from their pipeline-- Ive either misunderstood or dont see what your point is with the doctor stuff up example--(for cervical?)

[skid]

Fair enough

[The Grinch]

Hi Hancocks,

Easy read and I nice reminder of the need out there.

Thanks for posting.

[psychic]

A couple of interesting articles for you to browse and ponder.

HyperLink: Bladder Cancer: Things Can Only Get Better (http://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2014/09/04/the-bmj-today-bladder-cancer-things-can-only-get-better/)

HyperLink: Bladder Cancer: So Much Cost – So Little Progress (http://www.actiononbladdercancer.org/downloads/11836abcmediarelease20march14.pdf)

Many thanks Hancocks.

First quick read and I am gobsmacked!

The first link you posted introduces a review being conducted by the NHS England on Bladder Cancer.

I didn't know this was underway - exciting find!!

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/gid-cgwave0600/resources/bladder-cancer-guideline-consultation


They recognise the importance of early detection, and go about considering inadequate Urine Biomarkers developed a decade ago such as NMP22, UroVysion and ImmunoCyt. They acknowledge there are others in development - but consider them unavailable or without sufficient evidence.!!


https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/gid-cgwave0600/resources/bladder-cancer-evidence-review2

Urine examination for bladder tumours includes conventional cytological examination and the
relatively limited use of adjunctive tools such as NMP22, FISH (UroVysion) and ImmunoCyt. Although
other urine tests are in development, none are yet routinely available and there is insufficient
evidence to consider them at this time.
The need for higher sensitivity in detection of tumours (new and recurrent) has driven the search for
a test that would either supplement or replace urine cytology. The topic is contentious because
urine cytology, despite the above limitations, is relatively cheap and easily accessible while the use
of markers is associated with additional cost and expertise in interpretation and of uncertain benefit,
particularly if used without cytology.
The value of using markers in defined clinical settings e.g. investigation of haematuria (new cases)
and follow up of patients under surveillance for bladder tumours (recurrent cases) would be a
valuable recommendation if supported by available evidence.



The report is a draft only at this stage - perhaps they will take note of the findings of the AHRQ review in the US which specifically considers Cxbladder in addition to the three other tests.

Will need to find a quiet spot under a tree to read all this but it seems to scream Cxbladder consideration, sure hope the guys at PEL are busy with this.

[Minerbarejet]

Last sentence was pretty well what I said in a PM. I could almost feel the collective thoughts of PEB shareholders screaming "It's over here" across the ether.

[Dentie]

Many thanks Hancocks.

First quick read and I am gobsmacked!

The first link you posted introduces a review being conducted by the NHS England on Bladder Cancer.

They recognise the importance of early detection, and go about considering inadequate Urine Biomarkers developed a decade ago such as NMP22, UroVysion and ImmunoCyt. They acknowledge there are others in development - but consider them unavailable or without sufficient evidence.!!

The report is a draft only at this stage - perhaps they will take note of the findings of the AHRQ review in the US which specifically considers Cxbladder in addition to the three other tests.

I'm also "gobsmacked". Interesting that their research hasn't yet appeared to extend to lil' ole NZ & CxBladder. Perhaps they need to learn how to do a Google Search...

[psychic]

Is the issue "availability" ? Oryzon?
Seems wooden that they would go to the trouble of a 900 page review and exclude developments over the ditch?
Is this Healthcare all over?

[psychic]

Thanks Hancocks.
This "one market at a time thing", agree prudent. But oh so frustrating for the impatient S/H !!

[Crystal Ball]

Thanks Hancocks.
This "one market at a time thing", agree prudent. But oh so frustrating for the impatient S/H !!

Just a wee thought,wonder if Hancocks would be happy to email those 2 articles to the marketing team at PEB- seems like a prob in the right direction wouldn t hurt.....

[Minerbarejet]

While the first article appears fairly recent the second was posted in March 2014 so things maý have changed a bit in the interim.
Good find though and very interesting reading.

[skid]

A good step in the right direction NG--Lets hope that they are also on to it---Its not Googles job to bring PEB to the medical communities attention--Its PEB's job---Marketing--''hey we're over here right under your noses'' -- marketing.
If its one market at a time ,it should be the US market--Things will naturally go from there..

[MAC]

CE mark registration is required before active marketing in Europe outside of Spain and Portugal makes any real sense IMO, Pacific Edge through Oryzon need to do a little for now to support Spainish trials and user programmes.

I don’t think Oryzon will actively do much in the way of the conference circuit or other marketing until Cxbladder is commercial over the hurdle and is ready to roll out of the lab, it may even be that Pacific Edge will need their own staff on the ground, or perhaps that’s just my natural distrust of joint venture partner aspirations and energy levels.

Pacific Edge know what they are doing, it’s just a bit early, a matter of time though, hopefully CE reg soon.

[Crystal Ball]

Never mind, I just emailed him (nicely this time!)

Hi David

I am a shareholder in your company, PEB, and wanted to draw your attention to the following consultation, which is currently open in the UK. It seems to be a significant opportunity for PEB, and I would sincerely appreciate your thoughts on it.

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/gid-cgwave0600/resources/bladder-cancer-guideline-consultation

Regards
xxxxxx
Well done new guy,
funny, didn t think to do it myself. Should have been more proactive, good on you! Await their reply with bated breathe......

[okay]

He did put 6 kisses at the end of it though Snapiti that might help smooth things over.

[Slam dunk]

New appointment to board
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/255468

[Harvey Specter]

New appointment to board
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/255468Should be good for strategy.

[MAC]

Should be a fair replacement for Colin Dawson, Chris Swan agrees with you Harvey;

"The appointment of Charles will add a further dimension to the expertise of the board and his experience working with McKinsey globally brings a very strong strategic capability," chairman Chris Swann said”

“was previously a senior director at McKinsey, working with executives and boards on strategy and operation turnarounds. Pacific Edge hopes his contribution will speed up the global commercialisation of its Cxbladder device”

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1409/S00700/pacific-edge-appoints-mckinsey-almumni-sitch-to-board.htm

[Dentie]

An interesting article for you to browse and ponder.

HyperLink:Urology Times - PEB - Physicians Assistants (http://urologytimes.modernmedicine.com/urology-times/news/pas-make-big-strides-still-face-hurdles?page=full)

My pondering leads me to believing that the only thing holding back the Urology profession is the Urologists. As some of us have noted before ... they are slow to embrace a better way - even if it is at the risk of their patient's health. These precious buggers shouldn't be worried about being sued by possible CX Bladder defections....but maybe for hindering/preventing the health advancement of their patients.

[skid]

If she works full time as medical science liaison for Pacific edge diagnostics USA,-why wouldnt she believe in the benefits of CXBladder?
Not sure what the ''IF'' is all about--(are they awaiting results ?) sorry if Im a bit behind on developements

[winner69]

AND.....I got a response!!

Dear xxxxxx,

Thank you for alerting us to this opportunity. We are now registered with NICE and as such will have the opportunity to contribute to these guidelines.

Many thanks
Regards Dave

You saved the day mate, well done

[Tsuba]

LOL, dunno about saved the day, but nice to see they weren't already aware of the opportunity!

I award you a MBE ( My Bloody Effort ). Much better than an OBE ( Other Bastards Effort ).

Well done and good that they followed up your e mail and recognised its potential.

[bonne vie]

This may be old news with the study name indicating its running over period November 2012 to 2018.6271

[Crystal Ball]

LOL, dunno about saved the day, but nice to see they weren't already aware of the opportunity!

Gee, that is a bit scary, what are their marketing folk doing then......

[skid]

There are plenty of things the marketing folk could be doing still--Of course the USA is still the big Kahuna and they have been giving signs of late that they are not just sitting on their hands.
At this stage (until the next lot of sales) it would be an announcement of someone new on board in terms of customers.
Of course these things take time which keeps things relatively range bound in terms of SP.

It will be interesting to see if,now that the elections are out of the way and there is more certainty whether the market in general will benefit

[Minerbarejet]

This may be old news with the study name indicating its running over period November 2012 to 2018.6271This appears to be a notification to alert possible participants to the fact there is a planned test. Would you or anyone else know if it in fact is underway? Seems like an awfully long time frame but I suppose having a recurrence parameter as the basis may limit suitable participants.

[bonne vie]

This appears to be a notification to alert possible participants to the fact there is a planned test. Would you or anyone else know if it in fact is underway? Seems like an awfully long time frame but I suppose having a recurrence parameter as the basis may limit suitable participants.

No I tried looking on the University site but it didn't appear to have any updates. I am sure Hancocks will have an answer though.

[Carpenterjoe]

http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladder-cancer-advocacy-network/discussion/looking-for-reassurance/

Another American patient using Cxbladder. Interesting to note, the lack of patient trust with urine based tests.

[winner69]

Hope this Edison report comes out before end of month.

Shareprice needs another boost.

[Minerbarejet]

Hope this Edison report comes out before end of month.

Shareprice needs another boost.Then what?:)

[Minerbarejet]

Then the half yearly report, then CMS confirmation, then the roll out of new products then SP hits $10 and we all meet in the tropics to bask in the glory!Oh, is that all.:)

[Crystal Ball]

Then the half yearly report, then CMS confirmation, then the roll out of new products then SP hits $10 and we all meet in the tropics to bask in the glory!
Might just go book my first class flight then...:-)

[Minerbarejet]

Might just go book my first class flight then...:-)maybe you and psychic could travel together:)

[Dentie]

maybe you and psychic could travel together:)

Priceless Miner!!! hahaha

[Crystal Ball]

Priceless Miner!!! hahaha
Haha, why not! We could toast ourselves for our fine intuition in owning copious quantities of Peb shares.......

[Crystal Ball]

Haha, why not! We could toast ourselves for our fine intuition in owning copious quantities of Peb shares.......
Ps you are most welcome to join us..........

[skid]

If one of you is physic and the other has a crystal ball,cant hardly go wrong--I sent away for a crystal ball --It came from Kansas ,but must have been really old cause all I kept getting was Aunty M telling me to come home and the wicked witch of the East.:)

[MAC]

Some inflight entertainment, whilst you're being served yellow cocktails,


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQLt6jqZnrw

[Dentie]

Some inflight entertainment, whilst you're being served yellow cocktails,


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQLt6jqZnrw

Thanks for this MAC. A nice video for CX Bladder ... and will be a brilliant piece of education for those interested at this level. I personally was completely flummoxed after about 51 seconds.

[Crystal Ball]

Some inflight entertainment, whilst you're being served yellow cocktails,


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQLt6jqZnrw
Thank you Mac but having attempted to watch the so called "inflight entertainment" you have so kindly supplied, I think I will just stick to cocktails and scintillating conversation with physic ......

[Minerbarejet]

Thank you Mac but having attempted to watch the so called "inflight entertainment" you have so kindly supplied, I think I will just stick to cocktails and scintillating conversation with physic ......
Dont know what you guys get up to in your spare time but having a scintillating conversation with a laxative is beyond me.:)

[MAC]

Thank you Mac but having attempted to watch the so called "inflight entertainment" you have so kindly supplied, I think I will just stick to cocktails and scintillating conversation with physic ......

Yes, it was too late for PEB to book Paris for the vid, Carl's Jr got in first.

[Crystal Ball]

Haha, you should try it sometime Minerbarejet, you only live once !!

[Crystal Ball]

Yes, it was too late for PEB to book Paris for the vid, Carl's Jr got in first.
Maybe we are buying the wrong shares....Carls Jnr n co are going gangbusters.....

[winner69]

It's all turning to custard - price down to 88. Some journos would say plunging

C'mon Edison - pull finger. We need that $1.40 to $1.70 valuation pronto.

If you wait until the price is low 70's such a valuation will not be credible

[Hoop]

This will be recorded on my next PEB chart so........I jumped ship yesterday at 88c took my profits and ran...Ok the TA isn't that bad (DMI not signaled yet) but my portfolio is 100% all "in" and too higher risk and lack of ability to to take advantage of any more opportunities..somethings had to go and it wasn't going to be the power shares (yet)..

Bollinger Bands squeezing..could be a sign of a change trend..upwards?

[Crystal Ball]

This will be recorded on my next PEB chart so........I jumped ship yesterday at 88c took my profits and ran...Ok the TA isn't that bad (DMI not signaled yet) but my portfolio is 100% all "in" and too higher risk and lack of ability to to take advantage of any more opportunities..somethings had to go and it wasn't going to be the power shares (yet)..

Bollinger Bands squeezing..could be a sign of a change trend..upwards?
If you thing there might be a change trend upwards Hoop, why would you bail now ? Stay and reap the benefits.....

[skid]

It signals a change but doesnt show which way (im just quoting Hoop from an earlier discussion)

[skid]

It's all turning to custard - price down to 88. Some journos would say plunging

C'mon Edison - pull finger. We need that $1.40 to $1.70 valuation pronto.

If you wait until the price is low 70's such a valuation will not be credible

Sounds like this Edison report is starting to get you down--you know what they say about watched water never boils.
They are just a third party anyway--an announcement would be a far better outcome.

[MAC]

Sounds like this Edison report is starting to get you down--you know what they say about watched water never boils.

The first ones always important to investors, unless you count Forsyth Barr as independent, I don’t. Most likely Edison will probably issue their valuation report after the PEB HY result in November/December, why would they go sooner.

[Whipmoney]

It's all turning to custard - price down to 88. Some journos would say plunging

C'mon Edison - pull finger. We need that $1.40 to $1.70 valuation pronto.

If you wait until the price is low 70's such a valuation will not be credible

If a stock needs some arbitrary valuation to prop up its market cap then I would suggest that its somewhat of a questionable stock to begin with (at least from a value perspective)...

Conversely, if you yourself think its worth $1.40 - $1.70 then you should be overjoyed at these prices and lapping up as much as you can.

[Minerbarejet]

Probably like last year when everything arrived at once. Reasonable sales, good Edison report and CMS payments initiated, all in short order would do the trick.

[winner69]

If a stock needs some arbitrary valuation to prop up its market cap then I would suggest that its somewhat of a questionable stock to begin with (at least from a value perspective)...

Conversely, if you yourself think its worth $1.40 - $1.70 then you should be overjoyed at these prices and lapping up as much as you can.

Just trading PEB at the moment and need things to happen and Edison could be a good thing to get the price to 110 target sooner than later so just following the short / medium term trends

With the 5 year $100m being pushed out a year or so my DCF valuation is now about 90 cents. So not really good buyin for the long term at current price so just following short / medium trends. Never know where that may end up.

Just

[MAC]

Probably like last year when everything arrived at once. Reasonable sales, good Edison report and CMS payments initiated, all in short order would do the trick.

A lot of investors rely on these reports, for some reason they have jobs and kids and lives and just can’t find the time to research and sit about googling and blogging on ST all day. I don’t think it’s a generally a well understood investment in the market place at present, but that's what Edison type reports are for at the end of the day.

Agree though, by December Cxbladder triage will have been launched, perhaps a valuation of a possible melanoma companion diagnostic proposition worked up, perhaps a second HMO user programme announced, a draft AHRQ report released, and as you say perhaps some better clarification timing on the release of CMS revenues too, all that for xmas.

[ghostrider68]

A lot of investors rely on these reports, for some reason they have jobs and kids and lives and just can’t find the time to research and sit about googling and blogging on ST all day. I don’t think it’s a generally a well understood investment in the market place at present, but that's what Edison type reports are for at the end of the day.

Agree though, by December Cxbladder triage will have been launched, perhaps a valuation of a possible melanoma companion diagnostic proposition worked up, perhaps a second HMO user programme announced, a draft AHRQ report released, and as you say perhaps some better clarification timing on the release of CMS revenues too, all that for xmas.

and perhaps even some sales!

[MAC]

and perhaps even some sales!

It's too early for significant sales, it was last year and it is this year, and Pacific Edge have advised as much if one cares to lay out the commercialisation sequence for a walk over. I really don't know why some folk expect more than what is gaugeable with a little research, but there is always room for blind hope.

The reporting period end's next week so we should not anticipate any retained CMS revenues to be reported at HY15 unless an announcement is imminent in the next few days, significant revenues from a Kaiser Permanente contract would probably start to fall in HY16. There may be some token sale's to independent urologists in HY15 through the network providers, but that's not the core business focus is it.

My estimate is 1,000 to 5,000 sales and 5,000 to 10,000 tests performed in HY15.

Around 10 to 15 HMO/CMS/VA type contracts are required over the five years to meet the $100M revenue goal, sales will 'step up' as each contract becomes actionable, but not before.

That’s 2 or 3 contracts per year going forward starting with a gradual ramp up curve with Kaiser Permanente first up early next year.

[skid]

Its interesting all this behind the scenes stuff--looks like 89 has been taken out and a chunk of the 90--Just watching closer than usual as a result of Hoops B band statement.
(doesnt mean a significant move in one or the other direction would be immediate,but last time ,thats how it played out.)

[Derain]

Just FYI, hopefully a little boost for the SP

GENERAL: PEB: Japan grants PE patent for colorectal cancer prognostic (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3706009)

[Minerbarejet]

Just FYI, hopefully a little boost for the SP

GENERAL: PEB: Japan grants PE patent for colorectal cancer prognostic (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3706009)they have done it again, another one out of left field that nobody knew anything about! Well done PEB

[skid]

Looks like that has taken 90 out as well (at least as far as depth info is concerned)

[robbo24]

Just FYI, hopefully a little boost for the SP

GENERAL: PEB: Japan grants PE patent for colorectal cancer prognostic (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3706009)

Excellent work by PEB.

I know personally people who would benefit so much from this type of diagnostic test.

It would make life so much less stressful for them, and, as they put it they mightn't necessarily have to be "put on the spit by cameras."

[skid]

Yep,I had that-not a great way to spend your time(although it was interesting to actually watch the monitor [I didnt get drugged up]---But for me it was the cleaning out process that was much worse --drinking the horrible laxative stuff (3 liters) the day before Yuk! (I was amazed how clean everything was in there[you hear all this talk about rubbish and toxins building up] Didnt see any of that.

(I was ok by the way) but I can totally agree with your point of avoiding that proceedure

[NT001]

Just FYI, hopefully a little boost for the SP

GENERAL: PEB: Japan grants PE patent for colorectal cancer prognostic (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3706009)

Yep, I'm sure thousands of traders and investors out there will have read that and said "Gee, we better get into PEB pronto, eh" but then they'll have paused and said "Hang on, that's merely a great scientific and marketing achievement, we still haven't seen any sales reports this week, which is what we really want to hear. Nah, flag it away."

[robbo24]

Yep,I had that-not a great way to spend your time(although it was interesting to actually watch the monitor [I didnt get drugged up]---But for me it was the cleaning out process that was much worse --drinking the horrible laxative stuff (3 liters) the day before Yuk! (I was amazed how clean everything was in there[you hear all this talk about rubbish and toxins building up] Didnt see any of that.

(I was ok by the way) but I can totally agree with your point of avoiding that proceedure

I attended a meeting with my friend with a gastric doctor/specialist (whatever they call themselves).

I was very surprised to hear that the specialist had "forgotten" to check the test results with the cancer specialist.

All that meant was another few months of waiting in fear of having cancer for my friend.

Would be great to be able to buy my friend a CXCOLORECTAL test (or whatever it will be called) to at least shun that uncertainty.

[skid]

This will be recorded on my next PEB chart so........I jumped ship yesterday at 88c took my profits and ran...Ok the TA isn't that bad (DMI not signaled yet) but my portfolio is 100% all "in" and too higher risk and lack of ability to to take advantage of any more opportunities..somethings had to go and it wasn't going to be the power shares (yet)..

Bollinger Bands squeezing..could be a sign of a change trend..upwards?

Bollinger Bands squeezing ..and then an announcement--What do you make of that Hoop? Seems to be getting a bit out of the general investor psychology realm. Coincidence? Or could there be that many in the know behind the scenes.?

Anyway ,if this carries on ,you would have nailed it twice now.

Not quite sure what Mac was on about--you made it perfectly clear you were not getting out as a result of your TA info.

[skid]

Yep, I'm sure thousands of traders and investors out there will have read that and said "Gee, we better get into PEB pronto, eh" but then they'll have paused and said "Hang on, that's merely a great scientific and marketing achievement, we still haven't seen any sales reports this week, which is what we really want to hear. Nah, flag it away."

Basic business 101= You build up a base of customers and get things set up,and lose money at first until ,hopefully when things kick in you start making good profits if it all works.

A great scientific and MARKETING achievement IS worth money

[samdaman]

Basic business 101= You build up a base of customers and get things set up,and lose money at first until ,hopefully when things kick in you start making good profits if it all works.

A great scientific and MARKETING achievement IS worth money

I can see where NT is coming from though. The sales from an announcement like this are a wee while away and the volume from this announcement hasn't been abnormally large. I'm just gunna watch this one play out.

[nextbigthing]

and perhaps even some sales!

Negative ghost rider the pattern is full.

[Goldstein]

Basic business 101= You build up a base of customers and get things set up,and lose money at first until ,hopefully when things kick in you start making good profits if it all works.

A great scientific and MARKETING achievement IS worth money

In that case Skid would you like to buy Alpha Centauri off me. It's a fusion generator about 4 light years away. It must be worth a lot. But you can have it for $5,000 - just because you're a nice guy.

[Minerbarejet]

In that case Skid would you like to buy Alpha Centauri off me. It's a fusion generator about 4 light years away. It must be worth a lot. But you can have it for $5,000 - just because you're a nice guy.
I hope you are not contemplating selling Sirius as well. Its bound to be a dog.:)

[MAC]

Quite a lot of start-up companies fail to keep up with development on a second or a follow up product cycle and totally drop the ball at a time when focused on getting a first product out the door, Diligent immediately springs to mind as an example.

Pacific Edge has the potential to become an absolute cash cow when they achieve profitability, probably IMO at HY16, the next product, Cxcolorectal, should be all ready to go and funded from revenues at that time.

That’s if it’s not snapped up by a pharma as a companion diagnostic product in the meantime.

Pacific Edge have this to say about Cxcolorectal;

“The gene signature passed a clinical study in Europe and Pacific Edge is currently refining Cxcolorectal to reduce cost and increase ease of delivery of the service. Cxcolorectal (Prognosis Gen I) has completed clinical trials and is preparing for commercial launch.”

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/products/pipeline/

[NT001]

I'm with MAC on this. He cites Diligent as an example. Or just think where ATM would be now if it was still focussed on selling liquid milk in NZ. To me the value of PEB is where it'll be in two, three, five years time, not at 9am tomorrow morning. And that'll depend largely on its development of a portfolio of products, some of which will fire, some won't, and some will possibly attract takeover bids. I've seen no evidence that the company is so totally incompetent in the market development area that we have to keep pestering it for short-term sales reports rather than letting them get on with product development, which I would think is probably getting it noticed offshore if not here.

[skid]

In that case Skid would you like to buy Alpha Centauri off me. It's a fusion generator about 4 light years away. It must be worth a lot. But you can have it for $5,000 - just because you're a nice guy.

---I dont remember saying that all businesses that go through this cycle are cash cows,on the contrary,many fail--point is ,to expect immediate big time profits is unrealistic......Ill pass on the fusion generator ,thanx

[skid]

I can see where NT is coming from though. The sales from an announcement like this are a wee while away and the volume from this announcement hasn't been abnormally large. I'm just gunna watch this one play out.

Agreed--Its a long term building block (Its not earth shattering like astronomical sales or striking oil)

Guess the question is -Is it reason for optimism? Are the management working to build this company? Are they getting any results that might give reason to believe this is a long term play that will accomplish their objectives?

[Goldstein]

---I dont remember saying that all businesses that go through this cycle are cash cows,on the contrary,many fail--point is ,to expect immediate big time profits is unrealistic......Ill pass on the fusion generator ,thanx

My point is regarding "A great scientific and MARKETING achievement IS worth money". This has a (small?) chance of being totally incorrect. If sales cannot be generated after another few years, if another technology comes along in the meantime, ... then PEB may not be worth anything.

PEB is *potentially* worth a great deal.

[NT001]

My point is regarding "A great scientific and MARKETING achievement IS worth money". This has a (small?) chance of being totally incorrect. If sales cannot be generated after another few years, if another technology comes along in the meantime, ... then PEB may not be worth anything. PEB is *potentially* worth a great deal.

I really think we sometimes spend far too much time analysing the minutiae and don't see the big picture. This Japanese colorectal patent may turn out to be a winner, or it may not, and it may be overtaken by some other product. We just have to WAIT and see, and therefore there's no real reason why the Japanese patent should significantly move the SP. It's not like Wynyard signing up a new client who's going to start paying next month. Nor is it a disaster if this particular patent turns out to be commercially unsuccessful - it doesn't mean "PEB may not be worth anything"

The important thing is that PEB is continuing to get on with the discovery, development and bringing to market of other groundbreaking products, and its strength will ultimately rest (indeed already does) on a portfolio of products, each of which will have a separate timeline of approvals, acceptances and commercial successes/failures. At present we're focusssed on CxBladder but as MAC and others have pointed out, there are other things in the pipeline that we're hardly even aware of and this Japanese patent came out of left field. We don't know the half of what's going on, nor should we for commercial reasons. Let's be patient. I see PEB as a better bet for investors than traders tracking daily SP movements.

[Dentie]

I really think we sometimes spend far too much time analysing the minutiae and don't see the big picture. This Japanese colorectal patent may turn out to be a winner, or it may not, and it may be overtaken by some other product. We just have to WAIT and see, and therefore there's no real reason why the Japanese patent should significantly move the SP. It's not like Wynyard signing up a new client who's going to start paying next month. Nor is it a disaster if this particular patent turns out to be commercially unsuccessful - it doesn't mean "PEB may not be worth anything"

The important thing is that PEB is continuing to get on with the discovery, development and bringing to market of other groundbreaking products, and its strength will ultimately rest (indeed already does) on a portfolio of products, each of which will have a separate timeline of approvals, acceptances and commercial successes/failures. At present we're focusssed on CxBladder but as MAC and others have pointed out, there are other things in the pipeline that we're hardly even aware of and this Japanese patent came out of left field. We don't know the half of what's going on, nor should we for commercial reasons. Let's be patient. I see PEB as a better bet for investors than traders tracking daily SP movements.

Ditto...Ditto!

[Minerbarejet]

PEB is a funnel. It is the medium through which all the related developments and research of Otago University are to be channelled to commercialisation. There are probably many R&D projects well advanced, developing and being planned that will ultimately, if clinically approved, become part of PEB to be utilised or sold off. These would not be considered to be even in the pipeline as yet. Watch this space I reckon.

[barney]

Things seem to be " rocking along " nicely.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/317167/patent-japan-big-advance

[winner69]

Things seem to be " rocking along " nicely.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/317167/patent-japan-big-advance

Hope those words get widely read and circulated across other papers outside of Dunedin. David was on the radio this morning so that is good.


Need this hype in keeping the shareprice going up, esp as markets seem to be crashing around the world

Go PEB

[skid]

My point is regarding "A great scientific and MARKETING achievement IS worth money". This has a (small?) chance of being totally incorrect. If sales cannot be generated after another few years, if another technology comes along in the meantime, ... then PEB may not be worth anything.

PEB is *potentially* worth a great deal.

It is worth money because of its potential.--Which is the case with most patents.
People or organizations see the potential in their invention and patent it so no one else can copy it.
I believe there is every reason to factor that into the SP (the market may not agree with me)
The begining stages of alot of businesses are about potential. Xero is a good case in point (no profit there)
Potential is however a very hard thing to put a price on as we have seen with both PEB and Xero. It certainly involves a certain amount of faith because there are so many unknowns.
It got a little bit out of hand in these cases.
Potential does not mean that there is a 100% chance that the product or invention is going to be a success (by definition)
If the Japanese invention does become a success then ,with this patent ,it will then be a success owned by PEB rather than a success that others can compete for.

But setting all this aside it is more the second point that NT brought up that ,to me merits the rise.--It is the fact that PEB is continuing to get on with discovery,and developement--It shows they are continually working .
The big question mark (to me) is the marketing side of things.
We dont really know how well they are doing in that respect BUT these developments in themselves bring attention to PEB as a company.
Once PEB get their market share (hopefully) and can stand on their own 2 feet financially and the potential then becomes getting a bigger market share-it will become a far less speculative play.

[MAC]

Things seem to be " rocking along " nicely.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/317167/patent-japan-big-advance

“now the first patent had been accepted, Pacific Edge could take the ''very high ground'' in the future by shutting other companies out of the market. Others would struggle to prove inventiveness.”

Cxbladder started to be valued by the market in 2012 when clinical trial results were published in the Journal of Urology and the SP was at 20c. FA's like myself had the benefit of the market analysis and margin information provided by Pacific Edge in the prior 2011 capital raising document set. And, when a proposal for US laboratory construction was announced as a catalyst it was all go.

Cxcolorectal now has clinical trials and patents in place and Pacific Edge tell us the product is being readied for commercialisation but that the focus must be on Cxbladder, probably until positive cashflows are achieved which will finance a launch.

So what will it take for the market to start to value the forward Cxcolorectal revenue stream ?

My feel is that the timing of positive cashflows needs to be a little more certain yet, and analysts will need more information than Pacific Edge have presently publically disclosed in regard to prospective gross margins, market size, value propositions and price point etc.

Would be interested in the thoughts of others, but it seems to me that it may only be around 12 months or so away before we might anticipate a Cxcolorectal strategic plan and a launch announcement shortly after.

I’m presently valuing Cxbladder at $1.85, it’s hard to say how much Cxcolorectal would add to that, but it is possible that Edison have enough information directly from Pacific Edge and the market place to estimate, let’s see.

[skid]

Hope those words get widely read and circulated across other papers outside of Dunedin. David was on the radio this morning so that is good.


Need this hype in keeping the shareprice going up, esp as markets seem to be crashing around the world

Go PEB

Yep ,thats a worry,but ATM PEB seems to be bucking the trend --91 has been taken out and about half of 92.
There was a massive sell order at close yesterday that has disappeared (more games?) Fingers crossed I guess (dont forget the Edison report (sorry ,couldnt resist):)

[skid]

“now the first patent had been accepted, Pacific Edge could take the ''very high ground'' in the future by shutting other companies out of the market. Others would struggle to prove inventiveness.”

Cxbladder started to be valued by the market in 2012 when clinical trial results were published in the Journal of Urology and the SP was at 20c. FA's like myself had the benefit of the market analysis and margin information provided by Pacific Edge in the prior 2011 capital raising document set. And, when a proposal for US laboratory construction was announced as a catalyst it was all go.

Cxcolorectal now has clinical trials and patents in place and Pacific Edge tell us the product is being readied for commercialisation but that the focus must be on Cxbladder, probably until positive cashflows are achieved which will finance a launch.

So what will it take for the market to start to value the forward Cxcolorectal revenue stream ?

My feel is that the timing of positive cashflows needs to be a little more certain yet, and analysts will need more information than Pacific Edge have presently publically disclosed in regard to prospective gross margins, market size, value propositions and price point etc.

Would be interested in the thoughts of others, but it seems to me that it may only be around 12 months or so away before we might anticipate a Cxcolorectal strategic plan and a launch announcement shortly after.

I’m presently valuing Cxbladder at $1.85, it’s hard to say how much Cxcolorectal would add to that, but it is possible that Edison have enough information directly from Pacific Edge and the market place to estimate, let’s see.

I think you need to put a time frame on that valuation for clarity,Mac.