PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[MAC]

I think you need to put a time frame on that valuation for clarity,Mac.

Apologies, $1.85 FY15

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Limited-(PEB)&p=499894#post499894

[skid]

PEB is a funnel. It is the medium through which all the related developments and research of Otago University are to be channelled to commercialisation. There are probably many R&D projects well advanced, developing and being planned that will ultimately, if clinically approved, become part of PEB to be utilised or sold off. These would not be considered to be even in the pipeline as yet. Watch this space I reckon.

Thats a really interesting point Miner... If one knew some of these people (advanced students working on these projects) that could be very valuable information.
My daughter worked on a research project last summer for a grad student contracted to a large company.
They were doing research on the antibiotic properties of Manuka honey.
There are most likely daughters or sons working on the newest project for PEB as we speak.

[Minerbarejet]

Thats a really interesting point Miner... If one knew some of these people (advanced students working on these projects) that could be very valuable information.
My daughter worked on a research project last summer for a grad student contracted to a large company.
They were doing research on the antibiotic properties of Manuka honey.
There are most likely daughters or sons working on the newest project for PEB as we speak.
We wouldn't find out a lot about it as they are all probably bound by secrecy laws or contracts. Probably best said that there are a lot of clued up citizens at work here doing their darndest to find solutions.

[skid]

But which solutions ...that is the question. Reality is ,people talk.
Ive certainly noticed a flurry of activity with some shares just before news comes out. There are rules and there are rules. The ''haves''and the ''have nots''

Most of us are of course in the ''have nots''

Hopefully more solutions to come.

[NT001]

Just listening to what David Darling said on Radio NZ this morning, I noticed that when he was asked whether the colorectal cancer patent might be a "distraction" from the CxBladder series, he said no, but while PEB pushed forward with the CxBladder series it would be looking for a partner to take the colorectal patent to market in Japan.

[MAC]

Just listening to what David Darling said on Radio NZ this morning, I noticed that when he was asked whether the colorectal cancer patent might be a "distraction" from the CxBladder series, he said no, but while PEB pushed forward with the CxBladder series it would be looking for a partner to take the colorectal patent to market in Japan.

Thanks for that NT, found a link http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20151118

It does sound like they will prospectively now take a similar path as the with melanoma test commercialisation.

Still though it may well mean that we may see revenues from a Cxcolorectal partnership agreement sign up sooner than was previously anticipated now.

I'm pleased to hear that actually, it was a troubling point of discussion at the last two AGM's as to how long Cxcolorectal would sit awaiting the competition to catch up.

With the Japanese patent in place providing somewhat of a barrier to others and prospectively a partnered pharma bringing it to market sooner I think that concern may well just have been alleviated quite a bit.

[Minerbarejet]

But which solutions ...that is the question. Reality is ,people talk.
Ive certainly noticed a flurry of activity with some shares just before news comes out. There are rules and there are rules. The ''haves''and the ''have nots''

Most of us are of course in the ''have nots''

Hopefully more solutions to come.Think you will find that pretty well all PEB announcements in the last year have surprised the market including the sales report in May.

[Xerof]

''This is great - we are really rocking along,'' he said.

I don't wish to seem critical of Dene Mackenzies' article, but to me the comment quoted above would appear to be a continuation of Darlings comments on the patent issuance, and NOT a specific comment on the progress of CxBladder. It just doesn't flow naturally to me.

I hope it doesn't morph into another 'that comment' :eek2:

[nextbigthing]

It just doesn't flow naturally....



Perhaps you should use a CXBladder test and have it checked out :eek2:

[Minerbarejet]

I don't wish to seem critical of Dene Mackenzies' article, but to me the comment quoted above would appear to be a continuation of Darlings comments on the patent issuance, and NOT a specific comment on the progress of CxBladder. It just doesn't flow naturally to me.

I hope it doesn't morph into another 'that comment' :eek2:A couple of extra grains of salt might work.
Or better still get all ODT coverage of PEB released at Lake Ellesmere.:)

[barney]

New Zealand sure has some very bright and talented people doing fantastic work.

http://www.odt.co.nz/campus/university-otago/317322/putting-cancer-its-place

[winner69]

New Zealand sure has some very bright and talented people doing fantastic work.

http://www.odt.co.nz/campus/university-otago/317322/putting-cancer-its-place

Sure does

There is also many dedicated scientists doing fantastic work at Callaghan Innovation (the old DSIR / IRL) in Lower Hutt

Part of their work is working on cancer vaccines and anti-cancer drugs in collaboration with the Malaghan Institute and the Albert Einstein College in New York

[Fox]

Also all my lecturers and guest lecturers (BioMedical Science degree) mostly work on research teams doing some fascinating work that is well beyond other countries in some areas. One guy we had come talk to us discussed how he worked for a corporate. He has almost developed a method to graft tiny amounts of skin and cultivate it inside of a laboratory, to then later be surgically attached onto the same patient after a few months of growth. NZ is doing great compared to other large countries, especially with the population and funding differences.

[Slam dunk]

Thanks for that NT, found a link http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20151118

It does sound like they will prospectively now take a similar path as the with melanoma test commercialisation.

Still though it may well mean that we may see revenues from a Cxcolorectal partnership agreement sign up sooner than was previously anticipated now.

I'm pleased to hear that actually, it was a troubling point of discussion at the last two AGM's as to how long Cxcolorectal would sit awaiting the competition to catch up.

With the Japanese patent in place providing somewhat of a barrier to others and prospectively a partnered pharma bringing it to market sooner I think that concern may well just have been alleviated quite a bit.

Did anyone else notice that in the last few seconds of this interview David mentions a fourth bladder product?? I haven't heard of that before.

[MAC]

Did anyone else notice that in the last few seconds of this interview David mentions a fourth bladder product?? I haven't heard of that before.

From the August 2013 AGM presentation, from more recent advice from Pacific Edge, Cxbladder(triage) launch this year, Cxbladder(predict) launch probably next year, Cxbladder(health) launch ?

6291

[Slam dunk]

From the August 2013 AGM presentation, from more recent advice from Pacific Edge, Cxbladder(triage) launch this year, Cxbladder(predict) launch probably next year, Cxbladder(health) launch ?

6291

Thanks Mac. Wasn't aware of 'health'. Appreciate your posts on here!

[sharp]

Does anyone know when the Edison report is due?

[Minerbarejet]

Is there a transcript for that radio interview available yet anywhere?
Would appreciate a link if possible
Thanks
Miner

[skid]

Does anyone know when the Edison report is due?

Theres a thread about brokers reports on investment strategies section if your interested

[skid]

When exactly is the next sales figures due to be released (I remember they jumped the gun last time and came out a little early)

[sharp]

Theres a thread about brokers reports on investment strategies section if your interested

How does your answer my question of when is the Edison report due for PEB?

[skid]

I dont think anyone on this forum knows the exact answer to that question--just thought you may be interested in the other thread in terms of the value of broker predictions.----Could try calling them

[sharp]

I dont think anyone on this forum knows the exact answer to that question--just thought you may be interested in the other thread in terms of the value of broker predictions.----Could try calling them

Calling Edison? So you think they will dish out price sensitive info to any member of the public?

[sharp]

I digressed. There is a seller that is selling down in 40,000+ share parcels. Continuation of Huljich's sell down?

[MAC]

I not sure Pacific Edge have let us know exactly Sharp, they did say later this year though, one would anticipate it would be after the HY in November rather than before, Edison do seem to like to comment on results and outlook post mortem.

kind regards, Mac

[sharp]

I not sure Pacific Edge have let us know exactly Sharp, they did say later this year though, one would anticipate it would be after the HY in November rather than before, Edison do seem to like to comment on results and outlook post mortem.

kind regards, Mac

Thanks Mac. Not many months left in the year now. Will be following PEB closely.

[skid]

Calling Edison? So you think they will dish out price sensitive info to any member of the public?

They are not going to tell you what is in their report-but they may give you an idea of when it will be out--Other wise all your going to get is a guess from posters

[Minerbarejet]

Fail to see what is so mind bogglingly important about a paid for report courtesy of Edison. They are hardly going to slag them off are they?. Sure way to lose customers one would think. We havent even got to FB's 1.10 yet and I dont think that was paid for.
Good sales will do something and everyone will just have to wait until the end of November unless something dramatic happens tomorrow.
:eek2:

[winner69]

Fail to see what is so mind bogglingly important about a paid for report courtesy of Edison. They are hardly going to slag them off are they?. Sure way to lose customers one would think. We havent even got to FB's 1.10 yet and I dont think that was paid for.
Good sales will do something and everyone will just have to wait until the end of November unless something dramatic happens tomorrow.
:eek2:

When Edison come out with $1.40 to $1.70 valuation (street talk) the PEB price will put on a big spurt

Just like THL and SCY did.

Whether the valuation is outrageous or not doesn't matter. It's the 'credibility' and 'comfort' it brings to long time investors ....and the market

Content doesn't really matter, just the valuation

Hope it soon. PEB needs a boost to get that shareprice up to my first target of $1.10

C'mon Edison ...next week please. Please

[Minerbarejet]

When Edison come out with $1.40 to $1.70 (street talk) the PEB price will put on a big spurt

Just like THL and SCY did.

Whether the valuation is outrageous or not doesn't matter. It's the 'credibility' and 'comfort' it brings to long time investors ....and the market

Content doesn't really matter, just the valuation

Hope it soon. PEB needs a boost to get that shareprice up to my first target of $1.10

C'mon Edison ...next week please. Please
Can we safely assume your break even point lies somewhere in the 1.10 to 1.50 range. Suppose its not really any of our business but it remains interesting nonetheless. Im sure you will get your wish before long, hang in there, Winner

[winner69]

Can we safely assume your break even point lies somewhere in the 1.10 to 1.50 range. Suppose its not really any of our business but it remains interesting nonetheless. Im sure you will get your wish before long, hang in there, Winner

No just trading price at the moment mate. Jeez the 150 was the time to sell, just like the Chairman

This current trade started a month r so ago at sub 70 cents

Got a bit touchy at times but hanging in there. You never know it might even be a multi year trade if the price keeps going up and up, doubt it though

Go PEB, go

Edison report soon, hope so

[NT001]

I may be completely wrong, but I just think that with all the IPOs of new-tech companies and energy SOEs recently there's not a lot of money left sloshing around in the market looking for that kind of home, and it makes things difficult for the likes of PEB, ATM, SML etc even if they come up with decent results. The NZX50 hasn't risen much lately and if you strip out the recent rise in energy shares there's not really any sign of extra cash in the market. New software shares have sucked up a bit of money but I suspect that for bio-tech shares it's a question of being very patient and not expecting much until they start paying dividends, which won't be soon. Brokers reports aren't likely to change things very much, partly because their timelines are often 1-3 years away, nor are exchange rates. All this is IMHO as a longterm investor. It stops me lying awake at night worrying about daily SP movements (or lack of them).

[Carpenterjoe]

Edison report is out.

[Minerbarejet]

There you go Winner, 1.16, mate. Its all go, soon

Gives some additional credence to FB as well.

Looks like Newguy has good ears:) too re CMS

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks Miner!

Silly question - but how do plebs like me access said report?
Google: Edison Investment Research, Latest Research, Pacific Edge.
Then set up as a google alert or bookmark or create shortcut.

[sharp]

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=12799

[Longhaul]

I know we can all read (or at least I hope so), but the sales windfall relating to CMS coverage (page 7) was especially interesting:

"CMS1 (Center for Medicaid and Medicare services) and Veteran’s Administration (VA)2


CMS coverage is paramount to successful commercialisation in the US. The reimbursement and approval process for Cxbladderdetect is underway and CMS and Pacific Edge management believe the conclusion of negotiations will likely occur later this calendar year or in the early part of 2015.


Currently tests are being processed and invoiced. Once negotiations on a contract are complete, these can be billed, at which time we can expect a sales windfall for Pacific Edge as the backlog is processed. Advanced discussions are also underway with the Veteran’s Administration (VA)."

[Minerbarejet]

you've lost me here Minor - is there some news?
Not news per se - just a reference to Newguy who quite clearly heard DD say that CMS coverage wouldnt be out until late this year or early next and had the balls to say so on this thread and stick by it. Now verified in the Edison Report

[Minerbarejet]

Well I hope Pacific Edge didnt pay too much for that. Havent even got the right number of shares in issue.
Werent we at about 318mil shares after the rights issue last Nov?
Have a lovely day:)

[winner69]

There you go Winner, 1.16, mate. Its all go, soon

Gives some additional credence to FB as well.

Looks like Newguy has good ears:) too re CMS

I prefer the $3.91 target on the sensitivity target

Mac will not be happy as miles away from his $1.70 odd but then some very conservative assumptions by Edison

Rumour has it that a couple of major investors asked for this report and whether they went ahead and commissioned it themselves or got PEB to do it I can't ascertain

[winner69]

Don't bother read all the words and trawl through all the numbers

Just take in the heading - that's all most will bother with


Pacific Edge
On the edge of glory

[NT001]

Well it was out in plenty of time for brokers and investors to take a gander at it before trading opened, and market reaction at 10am seemed to be zilch.

[MAC]

The only thing disappointing really is that both Forsyth Barr and Edison have elected to form a base case assumption that Pacific Edge will be two years late in achieving their five year $100M goal.

My DCF based on PEB being on time is $1.85, one year late at $1.50
Forsyth Barr valuation, two years late at $0.96
Edison valuation, two years late at $1.16

It does though open up two questions which may be mutually exclusive;

1. Who is correct on the company's outlook, Pacific Edge or the analysts, ....., now that would be an interesting question to put to David Darling ?

and,

2. Are the analysts being a bit conservative for now, whilst awaiting a revenue curve to establish, and in doing so are allowing themselves room for valuation upgrades over time, on a let's wait and see basis ?

No wonder investors are often confused.

"Based on progress todate in the US market, Pacific Edge management’s target of NZ$100m insales by FY19 or the group looks attainable. However, we err on the side ofcaution and model revenue of NZ$100m two years later in FY21"

[Minerbarejet]

With the correct number of shares in the equation the Edison valuation should be 1.05.
Thats my take and feel free to correct me if I am wrong.
Cheers
Miner

[JimHickey]

While these future products and IP are obviously highly speculative and therefore difficult to value, assigning a value of zero is extremely lazy and misleading.Disagree with this. It is nigh on impossible to actually value these products, and while I agree the certainly do have a non zero dollar value, it is an extremely minimal value given how far away they are from actual cash flows. The conservative approach is correct imo.

[robbo24]

I know we can all read (or at least I hope so), but the sales windfall relating to CMS coverage (page 7) was especially interesting:

"CMS1 (Center for Medicaid and Medicare services) and Veteran’s Administration (VA)2


CMS coverage is paramount to successful commercialisation in the US. The reimbursement and approval process for Cxbladderdetect is underway and CMS and Pacific Edge management believe the conclusion of negotiations will likely occur later this calendar year or in the early part of 2015.


Currently tests are being processed and invoiced. Once negotiations on a contract are complete, these can be billed, at which time we can expect a sales windfall for Pacific Edge as the backlog is processed. Advanced discussions are also underway with the Veteran’s Administration (VA)."

I hope they recognise their revenue at the right time to avoid being a DIL :D:D:D:D

[MAC]

Disagree with this. It is nigh on impossible to actually value these products, and while I agree the certainly do have a non zero dollar value, it is an extremely minimal value given how far away they are from actual cash flows. The conservative approach is correct imo.

I’m with you Jim, it’s hard enough to value what’s in the market already, although if it came to a takeover the IP would need to be assessed and valued somehow.

Cxcolorectal is all but market ready, and from the radio interview last week with DD, it could well be picked up by some lucky Japanese pharma at any time, perhaps we will see this product valued in the next analyst report, might not have caught this one. It could well be a very nice contract sign up windfall also.

[skid]

Having to fight ''tooth and nail'' for every cent these days,but thats not necessarily a bad thing.
If its gets up to that $1 mark it will be an honest well earned dollar.

The market is keeping the boys honest and they are holding up pretty well so far.

[Minerbarejet]

Just had an email back from Pacific Edge.
They are aware of the Edison Report mistake with shares issued and Edison will be issuing an amended report - soon:)

[klid]

Are the analysts being a bit conservative for now, whilst awaiting a revenue curve to establish, and in doing so are allowing themselves room for valuation upgrades over time, on a let's wait and see basis ?

I think they pretty much said that didn't they. There will be considerable scope for rerating.... CMS.... VA.... Proof of comercial success, any one of these 3 things and boom?

One thing I conclude is they should charge more ($800) for tests.

[Minerbarejet]

So who went and put the ST clock back instead of forward:)

[ilikec]

Just had an email back from Pacific Edge.
They are aware of the Edison Report mistake with shares issued and Edison will be issuing an amended report - soon:)

Hi Minerbarejet ,

whats the shares issued ?

Thanks
Alec

[psychic]

Just had an email back from Pacific Edge.
They are aware of the Edison Report mistake with shares issued and Edison will be issuing an amended report - soon:)

lol, well spotted Miner.

[psychic]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/317671/pacific-edge-profit-forecast-2016

ODT gives the Edison report an airing

[NT001]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/317671/pacific-edge-profit-forecast-2016

ODT gives the Edison report an airing

Yes that's not going to set the SP on fire, especially with the references to downside risk and distant timelines. And part of the problem with the Edison report is it came out too early to take in the melanoma and colorectal announcements and give adequate emphasis to the multi-faceted portfolio PEB is building up, which is impossible to put a value on at this stage anyway. I'm happy sitting on my holding.

[Hoop]

I think they pretty much said that didn't they. There will be considerable scope for rerating.... CMS.... VA.... Proof of comercial success, any one of these 3 things and boom?

One thing I conclude is they should charge more ($800) for tests.

I noticed with Edison they gave the price a 2% increase each year...a lazy way of saying, allowing for 2% inflation per year..

When using forward thinking or predicting the future you have to use exponential thinking not linear thinking to be more accurate in ones predictions....
There is an Industrial Revolution in progress...It upsets the old systems, old businesses stick up barriers but its futile...
We have seen Moores Law+ in operation with electronics which has seen the old communication systems perish..
We are starting to see this revolution entering in to the Medical system now..once a system develops a digital code it becomes a revolution with the old established system and the new innovative sytems grabbing to take their place..The Gene Mapping is digital.

New innovative systems emerge which are more efficient at a less cost, they are faster and churn out more products/time....As the revolution progresses it does so at an exponental plus rate (normal is exponental rate) with sudden life changing innovations...e.g email killing off NZ Post .what does NZP do? puts up the price of postage..an act of suicide?.
The film industry force legal laws to help them stop the flow of data or imaging data through the net..is a barrier and an act of denial..so what do they do..put up the price to see all forms of movies...
Also the price of Data is declining at an exponential rate.. the speed of data is increasing at an exponential rate...the processing speed of that data is increasing at an exponential rate

Klid..putting up the price of tests ? ...Hmmm ...Remember your history of what has happened during the last two industrial revolutions...No? well you are not alone as most company operators didn't learn their history at school neither. That sudden advancement of modernisation creates cheaper ways of producing things using less labour caused a decade of economic distress within Countries due to the displacement of Jobs and persistant deflation...

With the onslaught of the Industrial Revolution into the Biotech industry if I was Edison team using forward projection I would be lowering the price/test each year not increasing it.

Patents won't save PEB from innovative competitors..being quick footed will.. An innovator (within an IR effected delationary Sector) being up to the moment or ahead of the game will get the rewards the rest won't e.g Google, Samsung, Apple...Us shareholders have seen how quick PEB is..sadly it's performance to date reminds you of a snail

[psychic]

Good post Hoop thanks. I agree re price. This will be determined by clinical utility, and poking it up as a result of inflation won't happen.
However, the Health system suits snails, and PE will find comfort in barriers to entry once it crosses the line. There seems to be no good reason why it should not, albeit slowly..

[Snow Leopard]

Having read the much anticipated report I have learnt nothing I did not already know. It contains a number of [minor & unimportant] errors and really just highlights that there is a very high degree of uncertainty over where PEB will be in a few years.

On the subject of the price of the tests it is possible that they will not even achieve the $550 with large volume customers.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[robbo24]

Having read the much anticipated report I have learnt nothing I did not already know. It contains a number of [minor & unimportant] errors and really just highlights that there is a very high degree of uncertainty over where PEB will be in a few years.

On the subject of the price of the tests it is possible that they will not even achieve the $550 with large volume customers.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Someone's in a bullish mood today :D:D:D

[Snow Leopard]

Someone's in a bullish mood today :D:D:D

As Tigerish as always.

I leave the bull stuff to others.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

I noticed with Edison they gave the price a 2% increase each year...a lazy way of saying, allowing for 2% inflation per year..

When using forward thinking or predicting the future you have to use exponential thinking not linear thinking to be more accurate in ones predictions....
There is an Industrial Revolution in progress...It upsets the old systems, old businesses stick up barriers but its futile...
We have seen Moores Law+ in operation with electronics which has seen the old communication systems perish..
We are starting to see this revolution entering in to the Medical system now..once a system develops a digital code it becomes a revolution with the old established system and the new innovative sytems grabbing to take their place..The Gene Mapping is digital.

New innovative systems emerge which are more efficient at a less cost, they are faster and churn out more products/time....As the revolution progresses it does so at an exponental plus rate (normal is exponental rate) with sudden life changing innovations...e.g email killing off NZ Post .what does NZP do? puts up the price of postage..an act of suicide?.
The film industry force legal laws to help them stop the flow of data or imaging data through the net..is a barrier and an act of denial..so what do they do..put up the price to see all forms of movies...
Also the price of Data is declining at an exponential rate.. the speed of data is increasing at an exponential rate...the processing speed of that data is increasing at an exponential rate

Klid..putting up the price of tests ? ...Hmmm ...Remember your history of what has happened during the last two industrial revolutions...No? well you are not alone as most company operators didn't learn their history at school neither. That sudden advancement of modernisation creates cheaper ways of producing things using less labour caused a decade of economic distress within Countries due to the displacement of Jobs and persistant deflation...

With the onslaught of the Industrial Revolution into the Biotech industry if I was Edison team using forward projection I would be lowering the price/test each year not increasing it.

Patents won't save PEB from innovative competitors..being quick footed will.. An innovator (within an IR effected delationary Sector) being up to the moment or ahead of the game will get the rewards the rest won't e.g Google, Samsung, Apple...Us shareholders have seen how quick PEB is..sadly it's performance to date reminds you of a snailPerhaps the snails pace is more due to the circus of regulatory approval taking so long in this field as opposed to any skiiving off on PEB's part. Long lead times seem to have become the norm now, something we were unaware of last year, hence the spike and hence the drop and consolidation.

[skid]

As long as they are not losing money $550 for large volume (lovely word) customers is not necessarily a bad thing.
Price and volume is usually an inverse relationship (and you are much better off being on the volume side of the equation) Heres hoping

Disc. Holding but watching closely--still trying to figure out what to do about holding through the next sales announcement.

I believe PEB will get there in the end ,but the Share traders are the wild card and these things take time

[Minerbarejet]

As long as they are not losing money $550 for large volume (lovely word) customers is not necessarily a bad thing.
Price and volume is usually an inverse relationship (and you are much better off being on the volume side of the equation) Heres hoping

Disc. Holding but watching closely--still trying to figure out what to do about holding through the next sales announcement.

I believe PEB will get there in the end ,but the Share traders are the wild card and these things take time
What do you expect for sales numbers to influence your decisions?

[skid]

I think theres a good chance the sales numbers will not be that high yet.
I dont think that means the company wont achieve its goals in the long run but how it would affect shareholders emotionally is up for debate.
No question about what great sales figures would achieve,and of course some great announcement would be more than welcome :)

[Minerbarejet]

I think theres a good chance the sales numbers will not be that high yet.
I dont think that means the company wont achieve its goals in the long run but how it would affect shareholders emotionally is up for debate.
No question about what great sales figures would achieve,and of course some great announcement would be more than welcome :)
So given the expected 3000 sales by Edison to the end of Mar 2015 what should we be expecting to the end of Sept 2014. Given the incremental and expotential nature of the shares are we looking at 700, 1000, 1300? Would any number that exceeded 1500 indicate that the Edison is way out?

[Carpenterjoe]

I'm more interested in how many tests are being completed/carried out. I'm not too worried about how many are billed for. Sucsessful user programmes are the key. The possible windfall from cms is very interesting.

But to give you a number 1000-1500. I've tried to use the latest cellmid annual report for a guide, but it rasied more questions about how royalties are paid, and the different reporting periods.

I was surprised how conserivtive the Edison report was and even disappointed in the number of mistakes it made. I need to give it credit for inlighting me on the Queensland user programme. I've either completely missed that or it's newish information.

Happy Shareholder

[klid]

So given the expected 3000 sales by Edison to the end of Mar 2015 what should we be expecting to the end of Sept 2014. Given the incremental and expotential nature of the shares are we looking at 700, 1000, 1300? Would any number that exceeded 1500 indicate that the Edison is way out?

It's interesting, because they refer to the ability to convert the user programs into paying tests quite crucial.
They refer to a backlog of paid tests once a CMS contract is negotiated and they refer to negotiations on this contract to be concluded late this or early next year.
So, Edison forecast $2m revenue for FY Mar 15 right? If over $1m revenue in the first half, or anywhere close actually... then very interesting.

[klid]

No CMS announcement today, but maybe tomorrow for my birthday?


There is an Industrial Revolution in progress...

:) Hoop. Are you planning on getting back in? I take note of your entries/exits as they seem to have a lot of merit. But your 88 exit recently I am not so sure about. Would be keen on your thoughts.

[Minerbarejet]

Happy Birthday Klid, hope you get your wish but think it might take a while to show up yet.
Snail Mail is pretty slow these days.:)

[Hoop]

No CMS announcement today, but maybe tomorrow for my birthday?



:) Hoop. Are you planning on getting back in? I take note of your entries/exits as they seem to have a lot of merit. But your 88 exit recently I am not so sure about. Would be keen on your thoughts.
Happy Birthday Klid for tomorrow.
A few posters are skeptical of TA and 2 reoccurring arguments they use is "it looks great in hindsight" and a belief TAists don't trade right on or before those rallies or corrections where those blue and red arrows are because the charts are drawn using this hindsight...and..that chartists tell porkies when saying we got +60% profit from a share last year that only went up +40%.
The only way I could counter those arguments is to post my trades real time using TA...So I decided to Chart for one year 3 companies PEB AIR and SUM only as I felt it wasn't prudent to show all my trading..
At first I thought it was a good idea and very educational...It still is ...but there are other factors that come into play that I didn't think of...such as individual's portfolio repositioning..risk...restrictive opportunity...etc.

With my portfolio at 100%/0% (0% cash) I decided to sell PEB due to increasing Equity risk (global weakness) and very high restrictive opportunity position...A 100/0 portfolio position is a crazy position for a TA investor.

Now the problem.. when it comes to drawing the next PEB chart my sale will be against TA discipline...For the transparency of the TA argument sake and as evidence I posted the day I sold and why..(#10706 24th Sept) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Limited-%28PEB%29/page714)

I did mention in that post that the BB bands were favourable at that time the price could go upwards ...

The present situation is... PEB has flatlined (trend less), the BB have squeezed even more and a not so common ma50 / ma200 squeeze situation is being applied..Many common TA indicators are less reliable during trend less activity, so the must happen indefinable trend breakout will be occurring very shortly (next few days?)

[Crystal Ball]

Happy Birthday Klid for tomorrow.
A few posters are skeptical of TA and 2 reoccurring arguments they use is "it looks great in hindsight" and a belief TAists don't trade right on or before those rallies or corrections where those blue and red arrows are because the charts are drawn using this hindsight...and..that chartists tell porkies when saying we got +60% profit from a share last year that only went up +40%.
The only way I could counter those arguments is to post my trades real time using TA...So I decided to Chart for one year 3 companies PEB AIR and SUM only as I felt it wasn't prudent to show all my trading..
At first I thought it was a good idea and very educational...It still is ...but there are other factors that come into play that I didn't think of...such as individual's portfolio repositioning..risk...restrictive opportunity...etc.

With my portfolio at 100%/0% (0% cash) I decided to sell PEB due to increasing Equity risk (global weakness) and very high restrictive opportunity position...A 100/0 portfolio position is a crazy position for a TA investor.

Now the problem.. when it comes to drawing the next PEB chart my sale will be against TA discipline...For the transparency of the TA argument sake and as evidence I posted the day I sold and why..(#10706 24th Sept) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Limited-%28PEB%29/page714)

I did mention in that post that the BB bands were favourable at that time the price could go upwards ...

The present situation is... PEB has flatlined (trend less), the BB have squeezed even more and a not so common ma50 / ma200 squeeze situation is being applied..Many common TA indicators are less reliable during trend less activity, so the must happen indefinable trend breakout will be occurring very shortly (next few days?)

Hi Hoop, just trying to work out what you are saying here- sorry newish investor and trying to learn as much as I can by surfing ST and reading lots of interesting threads) by I definable trend breakout- do you think this means the sp will go down ?

[skid]

im sure Hoop can elaborate but my take (from Hoops past posts) was that in cases like this,its not certain which way the breakout will go (although Hoop seemed to have a hunch on the positive side)

I dont really see why it couldnt drift sideways until an announcement or sales results ,But alas Im no chartist.

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop, just trying to work out what you are saying here- sorry newish investor and trying to learn as much as I can by surfing ST and reading lots of interesting threads) by I definable trend breakout- do you think this means the sp will go down ?

in•de•fin•a•ble (ˌɪn dɪˈfaɪ nə bəl)

adj.
not readily identified, described, analyzed, or determined.



im sure Hoop can elaborate but my take (from Hoops past posts) was that in cases like this,its not certain which way the breakout will go (although Hoop seemed to have a hunch on the positive side)

I dont really see why it couldnt drift sideways until an announcement or sales results ,But alas Im no chartist.

Yeah correct Skid..but only a slight positive hunch....

The share price is between not one but two powerful wedging forces forcing it to flatline...There will be a point in time when the pressure of PEB will pop out at the weakest edges of the wedges or if the apex is reached that squeeze pressure is suddenly gone ...There's bound to be someone out there with a good grasp on market physics and have a big complicated formula showing which end of the wedges PEB was applying pressure too the most...

Then again thats Market physics theory and it aint a perfect world so who really knows ...eh?

ahhhhggg!!!.. too complicated for this simple man on a Friday afternoon

[Crystal Ball]

in•de•fin•a•ble (ˌɪn dɪˈfaɪ nə bəl)

adj.
not readily identified, described, analyzed, or determined.




Yeah correct Skid..but only a slight positive hunch....

The share price is between not one but two powerful wedging forces forcing it to flatline...There will be a point in time when the pressure of PEB will pop out at the weakest edges of the wedges or if the apex is reached that squeeze pressure is suddenly gone ...There's bound to be someone out there with a good grasp on market physics and have a big complicated formula showing which end of the wedges PEB was applying pressure too the most...

Then again thats Market physics theory and it aint a perfect world so who really knows ...eh?

ahhhhggg!!!.. too complicated for this simple man on a Friday afternoon

Thank you skid and Hoop- yes, it's all learning curve stuff here for me but I do have to say, it's quite fascinating.....and perplexing..... and quite often frustrating......

[skid]

in•de•fin•a•ble (ˌɪn dɪˈfaɪ nə bəl)

adj.
not readily identified, described, analyzed, or determined.




Yeah correct Skid..but only a slight positive hunch....

The share price is between not one but two powerful wedging forces forcing it to flatline...There will be a point in time when the pressure of PEB will pop out at the weakest edges of the wedges or if the apex is reached that squeeze pressure is suddenly gone ...There's bound to be someone out there with a good grasp on market physics and have a big complicated formula showing which end of the wedges PEB was applying pressure too the most...

Then again thats Market physics theory and it aint a perfect world so who really knows ...eh?

ahhhhggg!!!.. too complicated for this simple man on a Friday afternoon

ahh cmon Hoop--All we want to know is whether our share is going to rocket or plummet...:):):)

Have a good wknd all

[MAC]

Just out of interest, has anyone previously made an NZ medical insurance claim for their Cxbladder test on Southern Cross or Sovereign Insurance ?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11337066 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11337066)

If you’re with Southern Cross or Sovereign Insurance, it would be interesting if you were to put through a pre-approval form for a Cxbladder cancer screening test and let us all know if they will walk their talk.

I'm with Accuro, full coverage, but they don't pay out bugger all claims, always seem to find a loophole, though if they were to also cover cancer screening, I would be happy to click away on the e-commerce site for quick Cx test, not getting any value from medical insurance at present.

[Dentie]

Just out of interest, has anyone previously made an NZ medical insurance claim for their Cxbladder test on Southern Cross or Sovereign Insurance ?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11337066 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11337066)

If you’re with Southern Cross or Sovereign Insurance, it would be interesting if you were to put through a pre-approval form for a Cxbladder cancer screening test and let us all know if they will walk their talk.

I'm with Accuro, full coverage, but they don't pay out bugger all claims, always seem to find a loophole, though if they were to also cover cancer screening, I would be happy to click away on the e-commerce site for quick Cx test, not getting any value from medical insurance at present.

Hi MAC,

I did think about it when we used CX Bladder earlier this year and am with Southern Cross but for the sake of $300 to $400 - didn't think it was worth threatening the no claim bonus. Think I also have to pay an excess too from memory so probably not worth claiming.

[Dentie]

During this period of sideway's action...here's some light reading for those on the thread who enjoy technical mumbo jumbo...

http://www.onclive.com/publications/urologists-in-cancer-care/2014/october-2014/commercial-tests-offer-guidance-in-bladder-renal-testicular-cancers/1

Good to see they actually mention PEB's existence now ...(and, for me at least, the reference was on the first page!!)

[skid]

During this period of sideway's action...here's some light reading for those on the thread who enjoy technical mumbo jumbo...

http://www.onclive.com/publications/urologists-in-cancer-care/2014/october-2014/commercial-tests-offer-guidance-in-bladder-renal-testicular-cancers/1

Good to see they actually mention PEB's existence now ...(and, for me at least, the reference was on the first page!!)

And from the USA to boot! Finally some recognition Good sign

[skid]

Funny how the SP has jumped up a cent right at the end of the day ,the last few days--be nice if it were a sign of something on the horizon

[Minerbarejet]

Funny how the SP has jumped up a cent right at the end of the day ,the last few days--be nice if it were a sign of something on the horizon
Somebody was going gangbusters at 45000 at .98 and another 30000 at .93. Thought it was going to clean out a lot of the 115000 93s but oh no someone had to drop 50000 at .92 right in the last minute.
However it is starting to look a little bit skinny on the sell side. Back to a buck just around the corner?:)

[Crystal Ball]

Somebody was going gangbusters at 45000 at .98 and another 30000 at .93. Thought it was going to clean out a lot of the 115000 93s but oh no someone had to drop 50000 at .92 right in the last minute.
However it is starting to look a little bit skinny on the sell side. Back to a buck just around the corner?:)

Yes good to see the ratio better , ie instead of more sellers that buyers, finally depth shows same number of buyers and sellers.... Also more shares wanted and less available for sale, hopefully this will generate a bit of a frenzy...

[Minerbarejet]

Yes good to see the ratio better , ie instead of more sellers that buyers, finally depth shows same number of buyers and sellers.... Also more shares wanted and less available for sale, hopefully this will generate a bit of a frenzy...
Bit late for frenzy, that was last year. What we need is a calm, rational, unhurried, reasonable, assured, timely and supportive uptrend generated from solid revenue strength and clear, concise, accurate, regularly updated announcements.
Suspect it has started already.:)

[skid]

Bit late for frenzy, that was last year. What we need is a calm, rational, unhurried, reasonable, assured, timely and supportive uptrend generated from solid revenue strength and clear, concise, accurate, regularly updated announcements.
Suspect it has started already.:)

Absolutely right Miner

I suppose there are a few exceptions ,like a major announcement (someone big on board) or really bad sales,but all in all,I think we need to ween ourselves off of that frenzy addiction-well said

[Crystal Ball]

Absolutely right Miner

I suppose there are a few exceptions ,like a major announcement (someone big on board) or really bad sales,but all in all,I think we need to ween ourselves off of that frenzy addiction-well said

Ok guys, put in my place , can t Help but be a bit excited though......

[Minerbarejet]

Ok guys, put in my place , can t Help but be a bit excited though......dont get me wrong, a bit of frenzy doesnt hurt and gets the punters blood flowing, its just that perhaps PEB is maturing a bit after last years gungho activity.
Noah fence.
Peace Sister:)

[sharp]

Something must be happening behind closed doors... although there are no announcements... yet... can anyone enlighten us?

[MAC]

Something must be happening behind closed doors... although there are no announcements... yet... can anyone enlighten us?

Yep, it's called being undervalued, it doesn't need a reason other than simply that.

[craic]

Several shares have had this 11th hour jump in the last few days without reason. It has happened to SPK two days in a row and, although the price is still inflated today, a check of depth reveals that the individual sales are mostly of very small amounts. I read an announcement that Ngai Tahu are looking to extend their investments locally.

[Mista_Trix]

Several shares have had this 11th hour jump in the last few days without reason. It has happened to SPK two days in a row and, although the price is still inflated today, a check of depth reveals that the individual sales are mostly of very small amounts. I read an announcement that Ngai Tahu are looking to extend their investments locally.

I've seen the same type of behaviour on the ASX. I don't 'know' anything, but to me it feels like a fishing exercise - trying to ignite the spark that sends it upwards - to see if you chucked some larger bids through, will it bring out a flurry of activity.

Just my two cents, not based on anything at all :-S

[winner69]

Still heading to that 105/110 zone which (technically) could define where price heading in the next 6 months or year

Go PEB, you good one

[NT001]

At 11am a whole bunch of trades went through for higgledy-piggledy numbers of shares at 95 cents, and adding up to exactly 150,000 shares, then two odd-numbered trades adding up to exactly 45,000 and then at 11.15 another two adding up to exactly 30,000. Is this normal?

[Minerbarejet]

Something must be happening behind closed doors... although there are no announcements... yet... can anyone enlighten us?
Seems to me that you have SP movement on no announcements the same as you have no SP movement when something is announced. Irrational market, how many times do you get what appear to be good announcements and the price drops, happens all the time, selling the fact I think someone called it.:)

[Minerbarejet]

At 11am a whole bunch of trades went through for higgledy-piggledy numbers of shares at 95 cents, and adding up to exactly 150,000 shares, then two odd-numbered trades adding up to exactly 45,000 and then at 11.15 another two adding up to exactly 30,000. Is this normal?
Plus the 45000 and the 30000 make exactly half the 150000.
Love a good conspiracy theory, could be the Illuminati at work:)

[barney]

With a sliding NZ dollar, anyone buying in US dollars is getting a good discount.

[samshields]

PEB is a leaky stock.
I just hope the price goes upwards.

Anyone know who the FMA are investigating for insider trading and the market manipulation?

[Minerbarejet]

PEB is a leaky stock.
I just hope the price goes upwards.

Anyone know who the FMA are investigating for insider trading and the market manipulation?Very clever, assume you mean the method of sampling.:)

[Crystal Ball]

dont get me wrong, a bit of frenzy doesnt hurt and gets the punters blood flowing, its just that perhaps PEB is maturing a bit after last years gungho activity.
Noah fence.
Peace Sister:)

All good Minerarejet ! I am kinda enthusiastic about this one but Happy smokin' the peace pipe. ..... It is good to see peb heading in the right direction, that s for sure. :-)

[NT001]

Anyone know who the FMA are investigating for insider trading and the market manipulation?

The FMA repiort just issued is for the year ended June 30. As regards market manipulation, it said that during that year it looked into three complaints. Two were dealt with and the other is ongoing but was not identified.

The report stated that “Market manipulation is hard to detect (but) is one of our compliance priorities.”

It also emphasised that brokers are expected to assess whether trades may be manipulative, and to keep adequate records of client instructions so that transactions can be investigated if required. Essentially it seems that the rules are made by and administered in the first instance by NZX, which publishes its rules and expectations in this area.

[samshields]

The FMA repiort just issued is for the year ended June 30. As regards market manipulation, it said that during that year it looked into three complaints. Two were dealt with and the other is ongoing but was not identified.

The report stated that “Market manipulation is hard to detect (but) is one of our compliance priorities.”

It also emphasised that brokers are expected to assess whether trades may be manipulative, and to keep adequate records of client instructions so that transactions can be investigated if required. Essentially it seems that the rules are made by and administered in the first instance by NZX, which publishes its rules and expectations in this area.

Thanks NT001!
Hoping the last is identified at some stage.

[Minerbarejet]

This in from Cellmid Annual Report


CDY
9:34 AM

AGM Presentation by CEO
33
PDF (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01561015)



see page 11 especially.
CX Bladder
800k for 2014 and 1m to date???????????????

[JimHickey]

This in from Cellmid Annual Report


CDY
9:34 AM

AGM Presentation by CEO
33
PDF (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01561015)



see page 11 especially.
CX Bladder
800k for 2014 and 1m to date???????????????
So 800k is a minimum of 8m revenue for PEB right based on the single digit royalty? (assuming they dont get a royalty on trials)

[skid]

Could you be onto something there?
It may be alot easier to get confirmation information from cellmid (information about PEB sales indirectly)

Reimbursement for over 150millon Americans? 150million sales? That would be hard to believe at this stage

I suppose it could mean that they have reimbursement rights for 150 mil potential sales,
but the fact that they have stated that they have already secured 800k revenue (single digit royalties) certainly makes one wonder.

It certainly brings up questions--how many sales does that represent?

[MAC]

So 800k is a minimum of 8m revenue for PEB right based on the single digit royalty? (assuming they dont get a royalty on trials)

Well, that’s certainly appears at face value to be way ahead of what Cellmid was telling us just last year;

“Cellmid will collect milestone payments and royalties of ~1.5% for an annualised return of $743,000 in the fifth year”

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/39465/cellmid-moves-closer-to-royalty-revenues-in-2h-2013-39465.html

Although, much of that estimated $800k probably comprises milestone payments, still though a positive and encouraging insight.

[Harvey Specter]

This in from Cellmid Annual Report


CDY
9:34 AM

AGM Presentation by CEO
33
PDF (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01561015)



see page 11 especially.
CX Bladder
800k for 2014 and 1m to date???????????????

According to these guys (http://www.rmresearch.com.au/wp-content/uploads/cellmid-3.pdf) industry standard royalties are 4% which suggests $25m sales to date shich sounds far to high.

Maybe they are including the 1M shares they received in that $1m - what was the shareprice when those shares were issues? (EDIT. cant find when they were issued but first sale was in October 2013 - during October 2013, the price ranged from 50c to $1.49) (Edit 2: The shares were issued in July 2013 http://www.evaluategroup.com/Universal/View.aspx?type=Story&id=459926 so say an average of 60c = NZ600k which is is ~AUD$530k)

[Minerbarejet]

So 800k is a minimum of 8m revenue for PEB right based on the single digit royalty? (assuming they dont get a royalty on trials)
Dont know what it is exactly, perhaps licence fees. Initially I thought 800k divided by 3% of 500.00 gives 53000 tests. Later it says royalties expected late 2014.
Anyone got any clues on this, we need enlightening and quickly.
If it is royalties that 90cents atm seems a tad undervalued.:)

[MAC]

Dont know what it is exactly, perhaps licence fees. Initially I thought 800k divided by 3% of 500.00 gives 53000 tests. Later it says royalties expected late 2014.
Anyone got any clues on this, we need enlightening and quickly.
If it is royalties that 90cents atm seems a tad undervalued.:)

The RM Research on Cxbladder last year, on behalf of Cellmid, estimated royalties to Cellmid in 2014 of $213k, but based on $10M in Cxbladder revenues to Pacific Edge.

http://www.rmresearch.com.au/wp-content/uploads/RM-Research-Cellmid-Ltd-11-March-2013.pdf

Thus, of the estimated $800k, either most will probably be milestone payments, or, PEB will be way way ahead of the curve on sales, or it could be a little of both ?

It's really too hard to accurately say without knowing the schedule and magnitude of the milestone payments. Still, it does though seem to be a positive signal even without an ability to fully crunch the numbers.

[BFG]

Revenues vs Royalties.

They both start with R I guess...

[NT001]

Cellmid SP hasn't really moved since the presentation. CxBladder is only one of Cellmid's irons inthe fire, though an important one. The company's CEO was buying up shares on her own account on the open market a couple of weeks ago at about the current level.

[Harvey Specter]

The RM Research on Cxbladder last year, on behalf of Cellmid, estimated royalties to Cellmid in 2014 of $213k, but based on $10M in Cxbladder revenues to Pacific Edge.

http://www.rmresearch.com.au/wp-content/uploads/RM-Research-Cellmid-Ltd-11-March-2013.pdf

Thus, of the estimated $800k, either most will probably be milestone payments, Add in the milestone payment of shares worth ~AUD530 and you have your $800k???

[MAC]

Revenues vs Royalties.

They both start with R I guess...

Very often with biotech agreements, milestone payments are event linked rather than time linked, whilst Pacific Edge and Cellmid haven’t publically offered insight into their contract agreement, the milestone payment may well also be linked to commercialisation progress rather than just as an annualised payment, it would be nice to know.

[Xerof]

The 2014 AR for Cellmid states that a milestone payment of 800k was received from PEB.......triggered by commencement of sales in USA

The 150 million Americans who have secure reimbursement in place relates to the 4 signed up Reimburers

Stand at ease team.....:cool:

[psychic]

The 2014 AR for Cellmid states that a milestone payment of 800k was received from PEB.......triggered by commencement of sales in USA

Think I recall this by way of share issue? Didn't Cellmid then sell the shares?

[Xerof]

Think I recall this by way of share issue? Didn't Cellmid then sell the shares?

Yes

Don't know, BUT....

CDY declared a gain from sale of financial assets of ~430k in their AR, so I would guess they have sold out, given they are cash hungry

[Harvey Specter]

Think I recall this by way of share issue? Didn't Cellmid then sell the shares?They were issued 1m shares at about the time they were worth 60c. That was triggerd by the first sale. I assume after that, they go onto normal royalties rather than further milestone payments. Royalties will be 1.5 ~ 4% depending on which article above you beleive.

[warthog]

Cellmid SP hasn't really moved since the presentation. CxBladder is only one of Cellmid's irons inthe fire, though an important one. The company's CEO was buying up shares on her own account on the open market a couple of weeks ago at about the current level.

Source of this info?

Thank you.

[NT001]

Not sure which info you wanted the source of, but assume it's the last.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/56945/cellmids-ceo-maria-halasz-leads-way-with-on-market-purchase-56945.html

[warthog]

Cheers for that.

[Carpenterjoe]

They were issued 1m shares at about the time they were worth 60c. That was triggerd by the first sale. I assume after that, they go onto normal royalties rather than further milestone payments. Royalties will be 1.5 ~ 4% depending on which article above you beleive.

Further on royalties, I recall from cellmids last report, they are currently between $1and $9.99 per test.

[AndyLP]

Man, Exact Sciences over in the US is getting it right with their bio marker test for Colon Cancer - Cologuard. Official FDA approval, and now Medicare coverage for those who meet the criteria shortly after. Big gains in the SP consequently.
Disc, still holding a good chunk.

[Minerbarejet]

Mac, empty your PM please,
Miner

[BFG]

Man, Exact Sciences over in the US is getting it right with their bio marker test for Colon Cancer - Cologuard. Official FDA approval, and now Medicare coverage for those who meet the criteria shortly after. Big gains in the SP consequently.
Disc, still holding a good chunk.

Thanks for bring this up Andy. Would others like to retort on why this has not been brought up before in regards to PEB comercial challengers, especially since it is a publicly listed company?

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EXAS

[barney]

Thanks for bring this up Andy. Would others like to retort on why this has not been brought up before in regards to PEB comercial challengers, especially since it is a publicly listed company?

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EXAS

The Cologuard test appears to be a diagnostic test to determine if somebody has colon cancer. PEB's colorectal test is a prognostic test to determine the aggressivness of stage two and three of colorectal cancer. Therefore probably not in direct competition.

[MAC]

Hi BFG, it does pop up on the thread from time to time, Cologuard is a screening test, Cxcolorectal is a late stage prognostic test, so there is no direct competition between those particular two.

http://www.fda.gov/downloads/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/MedicalDevices/MedicalDevicesAdvisoryCommittee/MolecularandClinicalGeneticsPanel/UCM390227.pdf

Andy’s point I think was more about what can happen when screening tests like Cologuard and Cxbladder do take off.

There does seem to be a range of colorectal prognostic companion diagnostic tests on the market which would compete with Cxcolorectal, that’s not new news and some of those products have been around for a few years now.

Cxbladder has an edge because it is the first to the market with fully RNA based technology and outperforms the existing competition that has also been around for years, this is why all Pacific Edge resources are focused upon it at present rather than colorectal or melanoma cancers.

There does seem to be a place in the market for Cxcolorectal too though particularly if it also performs well.

The likely market is Japan where they now have the patent rights, possibly a partner agreement with a Japanese pharma whom may require a complementary companion diagnostic test.

Some of the US pharma’s have had their own colorectal companion diagnostic tests for some time now, Roche for example, other european pharma's too.

[Dentie]

Andy may also be making the point that if PEB had gone the extra and got FDA approval for CxBladder - the deal with CMS would already have been well in the bag and the SP way up.

It seems to me the FDA are the big kahuna's that need to be satisfied for anybody trying to break into the medical market in the US. Yes, it is possible to get in without FDA but as we are witnessing...the wait is laborious.

[AndyLP]

Correct Mac and Dentie, there does seem to be numerous similarities between cxBladder and Cologuard. Which is why I find it confusing that Pacific Edge inform us FDA approval is not necessary, yet Cologuard has it anyway. I thought it might be because Cologuard appears to be marketed very much as an 'at home' test versus cxBladder being aimed at Urologists.

I wonder if it is a matter of simply 'going the extra mile' to get it, and if it would in fact help speed up CMS coverage.

Probably worth hearing if the company's position on FDA approval has changed recently..

[Slam dunk]

Correct Mac and Dentie, there does seem to be numerous similarities between cxBladder and Cologuard. Which is why I find it confusing that Pacific Edge inform us FDA approval is not necessary, yet Cologuard has it anyway. I thought it might be because Cologuard appears to be marketed very much as an 'at home' test versus cxBladder being aimed at Urologists.

I wonder if it is a matter of simply 'going the extra mile' to get it, and if it would in fact help speed up CMS coverage.

Probably worth hearing if the company's position on FDA approval has changed recently..

My understanding was that while it's not necessary, they are working towards it. I think I have read that somewhere.

[MAC]

My understanding was that while it's not necessary, they are working towards it. I think I have read that somewhere.

Yes, the advice was provided via Edison;

It seems FDA approval is not necessary at present but may be required in several year’s time due to regulatory changes. The Pacific Edge marketing strategy revolves around securing the large HMO’s, that’s where the big US revenues will come from, CLIA certification is understood by them as the necessary approval. The loose change from direct marketing will require FDA approval if or when they pursue it.

“Pacific Edge management is currently exploring the pathway to full FDA approval for the Cxbladder portfolio, which would enable the company to directly market to consumers. At this stage CLIA certification is sufficient for direct selling to physicians given the tests are processed in the company’s own lab”

“Pacific Edge also faces the potential threat of a new regulatory hurdle in the US. On 31 July 2014 the FDA provided notice of its intent to issue draft guidance providing a risk-based framework for new regulatory requirements of LDTs such as Cxbladderdetect. In practice the enactment could take time. According to the framework, the new requirements for LDTs are to be phased in over several years”

“Once reviewed, a product would likely be judged on its safety and would then be required to either follow a formal pre-market approval (PMA) registration process or an optional registration. Given the long notice period, we expect Pacific Edge will have adequate time and resources to prepare for this”

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pacific-edge1

[klid]

I've sold my 25000 at 0.92. I said to myself if XRO trades 5% lower to consider and yeah. Will get back in once my nerves settle.

[Minerbarejet]

I've sold my 25000 at 0.92. I said to myself if XRO trades 5% lower to consider and yeah. Will get back in once my nerves settle.Which do you think has the better chance of a 50% increase in 6 months, klid, ---- PEB, XRO or neither?

[klid]

Which do you think has the better chance of a 50% increase in 6 months, klid, ---- PEB, XRO or neither?
PEB. Probably not XRO. And I intend to get in before that happens its just you know how I go on about them mirroring each other in the absence of news so my actions are in anticipation of it happening again. If not ill buy in for more than 0.92 happily.

[Minerbarejet]

PEB. Probably not XRO. And I intend to get in before that happens its just you know how I go on about them mirroring each other in the absence of news so my actions are in anticipation of it happening again. If not ill buy in for more than 0.92 happily.
Cheers, klid. Just wondered what your rationale was. All the best.

[skid]

PEB. Probably not XRO. And I intend to get in before that happens its just you know how I go on about them mirroring each other in the absence of news so my actions are in anticipation of it happening again. If not ill buy in for more than 0.92 happily.

With all due respect --You call gaining 2 cents on a gloomy Monday when all others are falling ,mirroring XRO?
I can understand why you might want to lock in some profits ,but the xro thing has got me stumped.

[Slam dunk]

Yes, the advice was provided via Edison;

It seems FDA approval is not necessary at present but may be required in several year’s time due to regulatory changes. The Pacific Edge marketing strategy revolves around securing the large HMO’s, that’s where the big US revenues will come from, CLIA certification is understood by them as the necessary approval. The loose change from direct marketing will require FDA approval if or when they pursue it.

“Pacific Edge management is currently exploring the pathway to full FDA approval for the Cxbladder portfolio, which would enable the company to directly market to consumers. At this stage CLIA certification is sufficient for direct selling to physicians given the tests are processed in the company’s own lab”

“Pacific Edge also faces the potential threat of a new regulatory hurdle in the US. On 31 July 2014 the FDA provided notice of its intent to issue draft guidance providing a risk-based framework for new regulatory requirements of LDTs such as Cxbladderdetect. In practice the enactment could take time. According to the framework, the new requirements for LDTs are to be phased in over several years”

“Once reviewed, a product would likely be judged on its safety and would then be required to either follow a formal pre-market approval (PMA) registration process or an optional registration. Given the long notice period, we expect Pacific Edge will have adequate time and resources to prepare for this”

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pacific-edge1

I presume that means FDA approval would be required before we'd see it sold online in the US? Just outlining this for the sake of clarity, not because the timeline of going online is overly consequential because as you say Mac it's not a significant part of their marketing strategy.

[klid]

With all due respect --You call gaining 2 cents on a gloomy Monday when all others are falling ,mirroring XRO?
I can understand why you might want to lock in some profits ,but the xro thing has got me stumped.

Well you see, the thing about the mirroring is that it's not exactly time synched. I refer to my post (9846 on this thread) when PEB had pretty much bottomed out at 0.65 and XRO moved, and I was pretty sure PEB would follow (but it was lagged):

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Limited-%28PEB%29&p=498764&viewfull=1#post498764

Now this 2c rise today, 0.93 sells were slim to start with, now they're stacked. I was the only seller at 0.92 this morning when I sold, now that too looks stacked, and .90 looking weaker. The buys are getting weaker and the sells are getting stronger as time goes on today. In fact, look at the total volumes on each side right now... 117,866 to 483,755. I am just a little worried right now.

I'm not locking profits, I bought at an average of $1.20. My main aim is to increase the 25,000 shares I had to something a bit more without putting in more money.

[skid]

Looks like you made the right call there Klid--I did the same thing a while back only same amount of shares at a lower price after buying-selling-buying so I cant fault your strategy.
I would say good luck,but not keen to see SP drop:)

[Wolf]

The depth screen is not necessarily a good indicator. The fall today and yesterday aren't really that material considering the hit the markets over all are taking

There was above average volume on the rise to the retest of 95c and then low volume yesterday and today. This shows that large effort was required for the price to rise and low effort for the price to fall. But overall its been pretty low volume in this trendless period without large accumulation or distribution as further developments are awaited.

[klid]

I've sold my 25000 at 0.92. I said to myself if XRO trades 5% lower to consider and yeah. Will get back in once my nerves settle.

Re-bought 26,500 @ 0.86. $72.63 cash over after the fees.

[skid]

You may be right wolf--but I decided to stick to my strategy of locking in profits if it fell to 85 (sold at 86)It was a defensive move -[the 88 got pulled when the sell dried up)
There were several reasons for this (besides sticking to my plan of letting profits run but not watching it fall past a certain point)
The first is that id planned on selling before sales as I think they still could be low and the general investor crowd could get a bit titchy.
The second is the market in general is looking scarey to me --It could drive the price down ,even though it is a perfectly good outfit.
If that does happen Ill be back on board.
Both of those reasons dont necessarily mean anything against PEB as a company--I think they will get there--Its investers and the market that Im not so sure about.---I will continue to watch both PEB and the DOW with interest--Best of luck to those still in

disc .banked couple grand this time around to cover the grand lost first time around with a grand left over
''He who fights and runs away-lives to fight another day''

[skid]

Re-bought 26,500 @ 0.86. $72.63 cash over after the fees.
Good call Klid--looks like you may have bought mine

[klid]

Good call Klid--looks like you may have bought mine

Yeah, I have balls. It is looking very thin. But I think it will hold up at least for today. Will watch US stocks tonight for signs.

[stoploss]

Yeah, I have balls. It is looking very thin. But I think it will hold up at least for today. Will watch US stocks tonight for signs.

Last night wasn't a sign ??????

[klid]

Last night wasn't a sign ??????

Was. And it has taken effect. I guess the point is that if the NASDAQ and NBI etc bounce on Tuesday then things are good from my perspective. If not then a reevaluation is required.

[BFG]

Was. And it has taken effect. I guess the point is that if the NASDAQ and NBI etc bounce on Tuesday then things are good from my perspective. If not then a reevaluation is required.

Suggest you pull up a 5 year chart and look at that MA200 line. Wgereas it has always bounced there was a capitulation at end of day and major fail of that line last night. Couldn't really get a much bigger red flag...

[klid]

Suggest you pull up a 5 year chart and look at that MA200 line. Wgereas it has always bounced there was a capitulation at end of day and major fail of that line last night. Couldn't really get a much bigger red flag...

With the NASDAQ? We will see. PEB is strengthening now, as I had expected, as XRO had already strengthened from it's initial ~6% drop.

[Dentie]

Good call Klid--looks like you may have bought mine

Different participant's sentiment is interesting to watch... seems like a lot just enjoy playing pass the parcel while others trade our market based on what happens in other markets.

Why not just wait until it gets back down to 10c - 20c so a lot more can be bought?

If the business and its product/s are robust, why sell off just because the Dow/Nasdaq dropped? What's changed? Does it mean the US will no longer be interested in CXBladder? Is it about not wanting to wet your pants or just trying to keep up with the Jones's?

Just as well entertainment comes in different forms.....

[Fox]

Looks like it is just following the EMA14 trend line (on a weekly price chart to smooth out noise). And as klid said above, its strengthening now.

http://puu.sh/cbid6/801dc227cf.png

[MAC]

It always interested me Dentie as to how many of us start out short, trying to be cute with charts and timing, and then end up becoming longer term investors once we realise just how much of very little gained for the effort has gone to the brokers and the tax man.

[skid]

I went from being 1100 down to 1000 up from being cute--Dont count me out yet as a long term holder

Those who disregard the Dow and other markets as having nothing to do with NZ shares ,maybe need to go back and look at how things went over here when the Dow tanked some years back.

Im not saying PEB wont do well from here,but if the overseas market tank it will be a real struggle--

I made a plan and am sticking to it,just like Im sure others have(although some dont seem to have one)

No bitterness here if it goes up in value--Hope you can say the same if it goes down.

[skid]

Different participant's sentiment is interesting to watch... seems like a lot just enjoy playing pass the parcel while others trade our market based on what happens in other markets.

Why not just wait until it gets back down to 10c - 20c so a lot more can be bought?

If the business and its product/s are robust, why sell off just because the Dow/Nasdaq dropped? What's changed? Does it mean the US will no longer be interested in CXBladder? Is it about not wanting to wet your pants or just trying to keep up with the Jones's?

Just as well entertainment comes in different forms.....

Regardless of whether I made the right move or not--Thats one of the more Naive posts Ive read for a while--You obviously were not around for a real correction--This may not be it,but to blow off the concept is well, like I said

[Dentie]

There's no criticism of anyone's "concept" or "plan" from me Skid. My post was intended to be one of reflection and interest on the trading behaviour of other participants - precisely because I have been around in REAL corrections.
1987 was an interesting time which is where I learned some lessons. I then saved some dosh and applied what I learned in the 2007 correction by taking positions in the face of the stampeding herd.
A “correction” implies a stock has got ahead of itself - PEB was in that space earlier this year. I do not think PEB should be subject to any correction at the moment because IMHO, it is not overvalued.
My view on this is the same as MAC’s and for me at least, I try to learn from what I perceive to be others’ mistakes. For me, it is perilous to trade anything but an “established” share and, to my mind, PEB is certainly not yet an established share.
Investing in shares on the other hand can be very pleasurable and exciting, especially if there is no margin calls involved.

[skid]

Or a correction implies the market has got ahead of itself [why sell off because the Dow/Nasdaq dropped]--Since you have been around some real corrections (I stand corrected) you will no doubt know the answer to that question.

But we are not in a correction yet and although its looks like we may be in dangerous territory it is not a given.

It was just one of the issues to be considered--guess we all just have to look at the factors we consider relevant to us and make a decision.

I still dont get why those who sell and buy back in because things just dont seem right at the time (and then do) are automatically kicked out of the high five long term holders club ------------as Arney said ''ILL be back'' (maybe)

[BFG]

If the business and its product/s are robust, why sell off just because the Dow/Nasdaq dropped? What's changed? Does it mean the US will no longer be interested in CXBladder? Is it about not wanting to wet your pants or just trying to keep up with the Jones's?

If you are a MAC this does not matter. If you are a nervous nellie, you probably went out and bought an extra large pack of Depends after work tonight.

It's about to get turbulent. Buckle up and enjoy the ride :)

[Xerof]

I don't know why you can't use your original username but your hoofprints are on all your old favorite threads, and I can see your antlers

each to their own I guess.......

[nextbigthing]

I don't know why you can't use your original username but your hoofprints are on all your old favorite threads, and I can see your antlers

each to their own I guess.......

You end up getting that .270 sighted in Xerof? Could be a chance to try it out :cool:

[Xerof]

Lol, I have seen it, but he hasn't given me a shot with it yet. Just got QN certified btw.....

[stoploss]

Yeah, I have balls. It is looking very thin. But I think it will hold up at least for today. Will watch US stocks tonight for signs.

Hope they haven't shrunk too much overnight :)

[klid]

Hope they haven't shrunk too much overnight :)

LOL, yer ;) not good at all. What the **** is going to happen to XRO today with the escrow, OH MY LORD.

[BFG]

LOL, yer ;) not good at all. What the **** is going to happen to XRO today with the escrow, OH MY LORD.

If you thought it sucked earlier in the week, you're going to need more Depends today.

The average correction lasts 8 months and sheds 15% from an index. Plan accordingly my friends.

[psychic]

Hi moosie.. :)
It used to be that we all had to follow the nasdaq bio..
It's up today...

[klid]

Hi moosie.. :)
It used to be that we all had to follow the nasdaq bio..
It's up today...

Wow. Thanks for pointing that out. It really climbed towards close after tracking its parent. Why did it diverge do you know??

[BFG]

Hi moosie.. :)
It used to be that we all had to follow the nasdaq bio..
It's up today...

Looking a bit double topey to me on the two year chart.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^NBI

Reversal was a first test of 10% correction levels. Obviously not THAT much panic yet as some still believe it's "buy the dip" time business as usual.

[Minerbarejet]

Wow. Thanks for pointing that out. It really climbed towards close after tracking its parent. Why did it diverge do you know??
Thanks for that too, when I looked it was red 50 and let out a groan and went off to do other things.
BFG = Back For Good, moosie?:)

[skid]

Man,Its a good thing most of us slept through that day on the DOW---down 460 and then coming back to only 173 down--whichever way it goes Volatility is king atm.
It will be interesting to see how the different shares interpret this.

I just hope they get this Ebola thing under control--Otherwise the share market will be the least of our worries

[skid]

What The.... Is it just games or has someone put in a massive sell taking out all down to 82??

[Minerbarejet]

Probably trying to trigger stop losses:)

[skid]

Its safe up to 84 now--these premarket games are crazy

2 sellers have gotten cold feet 174000

[Minerbarejet]

So now its down 10 cents from where it was a couple of weeks ago- why? Nothing has changed for this share- it still has the same amount of potential.

[skid]

Doesnt matter--atm investers are not willing to pay as much for that potential--they are scared

Ive looked at peb-air- xro -sum----they are all down--coincidence?

[couta1]

So now its down 10 cents from where it was a couple of weeks ago- why? Nothing has changed for this share- it still has the same amount of potential.
Its called the MACRO environment.

[skid]

And now someone buying 500 back @ 87---

All kinds of games going on today

-should be an interesting day

[skid]

Man,Its a good thing most of us slept through that day on the DOW---down 460 and then coming back to only 173 down--whichever way it goes Volatility is king atm.
It will be interesting to see how the different shares interpret this.

I just hope they get this Ebola thing under control--Otherwise the share market will be the least of our worries

So now a 2nd nurse is confirmed with Ebola in the states(she just got off a commercial airliner hours before feeling sick)WHO now thinks incubation could be double the 21days first predicted

I think Its time to start the inevitable thread--(wont clutter up this thread with more info)

[MAC]

If you thought it sucked earlier in the week, you're going to need more Depends today.

The average correction lasts 8 months and sheds 15% from an index. Plan accordingly my friends.

Yawn, never a more frequent bleet uttered by a frustrated bear at correction time.

Must be quite perplexing for some who do want volatility though not having a potential euro currency meltdown risk or a Greek debt contagion risk every year.

[couta1]

I think you mean a frustrated Moose Back For Good there Mac.

[MAC]

I think you mean a frustrated Moose Back For Good there Mac.

Well I have to admit I was tempted all in good humor, welcome to you whom ever you may be BFG.

[Xerof]

I think you mean a frustrated Moose Back For Good there Mac.

I'm thinking it's an anthropological close relative, the Bearish Fearmongering Gnu

:sleep:

[skid]

Theres a big difference between wanting volatility,corrections ,and meltdowns and wanting to avoid them--The age old question,debated before ,is just how much does that sort of thing affect a share like PEB if it happens --someone obviously decided to bail earlier--what happens now is any ones guess--there is nothing wrong with some one who likes the company as much as you do,taking a chance to get back in at a lower price(or more shares)--its like waiting for a sale to for your apple computer.
Its not panic time ,but there is reason for caution IMO--(boy those buyers that jumped in when the DOW was down 460 have got balls of steel!--it does show that there is still the motivation for a good deal over just plain fear----Guess we'll just have watch that space.

[skid]

I'm thinking it's an anthropological close relative, the Bearish Fearmongering Gnu

:sleep:

Boy if he is'nt Moosie ,I feel sorry for the poor chap--being thrown into the lions den..

[MAC]

Fair enough, each to their own, just can’t be bothered with it personally, years ago I may have. I just resolved over time that between being occasionally lucky with the timing, the brokerage, and the tax, it wasn’t really providing much reward, less than just holding well managed stocks whilst they retain good fundamentals, or perhaps I just wasn’t good at it. It can be quite exciting though for those who are new to it all trying to chase the market. Agree though, if you’ve got cash on the sidelines it may be present an entry point, or a stock like this which is well undervalued already and already beaten up may not move much at all.

[skid]

I guess with me it was less about trading to make dosh but more about stepping out if things were looking uncomfortably volatile.
Its holding its own today so thats good for holders--Funny how it goes back and forth between 85 and 87--You would think 86 does'nt exist!:)

[MAC]

That’s the thing isn’t Skid, it can be crystal ball gazing at times, selling today when the US markets are already 8 or 9% into what may only be a 10% correction can be a fraught with all sorts of uncertainty in itself, then there is the risk of mistiming a re-entry, could be tomorrow or on any day that a FED official chooses to sneeze, could gap higher and then that humble 1% differential less brokerage and tax is toast.

You may have jumped out earlier on, but for others to have a go today they would have to have cajones of steel or some serious skills to make such an equation routinely work.

Still generally I think for most folk, the risk of being out of the market is greater than being in until the central bank tightening cycle concludes, that’s a fair way off yet, could even be 2016 IMO.

[skid]

Actually I would have been better off to have jumped today (1ct)--And you may be right--Just dont like the look of the odds ATM,and dare I say it ,Im leaning towards the TA ers ATM-- and...That was a close call last night.

Does a correction have to stop at 10%?

Interesting day though--all that and it ended up at the same SP (and not one 86 in the lot!)

[winner69]

Actually I would have been better off to have jumped today (1ct)--And you may be right--Just dont like the look of the odds ATM,and dare I say it ,Im leaning towards the TA ers ATM-- and...That was a close call last night.

Does a correction have to stop at 10%?

Interesting day though--all that and it ended up at the same SP (and not one 86 in the lot!)

Correction 10% to 20%

Crash 50%

And then the up trend starts again

[Casino]

Correction 10% to 20%

Crash 50%

And then the up trend starts again

If you're looking at blue chips.

[couta1]

Correction 10% to 20%

Crash 50%

And then the up trend starts again
Well I must say Winner that bit about the up trend starting sounds good, I will then be able to do the countdown( Or is that count up) from minus 222k toward zero, you never know it may even go past zero now wouldn't that be a bonus.

[couta1]

minus $222k all up? :scared::scared:

OR

minus $222k on PEB alone? :scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::scared::s cared:
All up NG just minus 22k on Peb:cool:

[Casino]

Well I must say Winner that bit about the up trend starting sounds good, I will then be able to do the countdown( Or is that count up) from minus 222k toward zero, you never know it may even go past zero now wouldn't that be a bonus.

State Two – Losing
The ACCG indicates that the losing stage lasts longer than 5 years. During this time, the action compulsive gambler bets increasingly larger sums and steps up the pace and frequency of his gambling. If queried, he will usually dismiss it as “just a losing streak,” insisting that he can recoup his losses. In such self-delusional state, he doubles down on bets, and bets on the long shots even when he has the nagging feeling they won’t win – all in the hope of the big payday. The result is he loses much more often than he wins and, consequently, bets even more money in the frantic race to win it all back, a practice known as “chasing his losses.”

http://www.elementsbehavioralhealth.com/addiction/stages-of-compulsive-gambling/

[couta1]

QUOTE=NewGuy;512081]Phew! You had me worried there. :ohmy:[/QUOTE]
Im guessing you and i are suffering most on our Sum holdings due to the size of them.

[couta1]

State Two – Losing
The ACCG indicates that the losing stage lasts longer than 5 years. During this time, the action compulsive gambler bets increasingly larger sums and steps up the pace and frequency of his gambling. If queried, he will usually dismiss it as “just a losing streak,” insisting that he can recoup his losses. In such self-delusional state, he doubles down on bets, and bets on the long shots even when he has the nagging feeling they won’t win – all in the hope of the big payday. The result is he loses much more often than he wins and, consequently, bets even more money in the frantic race to win it all back, a practice known as “chasing his losses.”

http://www.elementsbehavioralhealth.com/addiction/stages-of-compulsive-gambling/
Gone past this stage Casino, not trying to recoup losses just happy to sit long term on what I've got now and add to my dividend paying stocks, I'm actually quite at peace even sitting on a big paper loss as all that frantic buying and selling wears you to a frazzle and I don't feel like paying a brokers salary in fees this year.

[Casino]

Gone past this stage Casino, not trying to recoup losses just happy to sit long term on what I've got now and add to my dividend paying stocks, I'm actually quite at peace even sitting on a big paper loss as all that frantic buying and selling wears you to a frazzle and I don't feel like paying a brokers salary in fees this year.

That's a good attitude. Small tech stocks should only be a small fraction of your portfolio. You should also make it habit to set yourself stop-losses and stick to them. It makes all the difference.

[skid]

Well I must say Winner that bit about the up trend starting sounds good, I will then be able to do the countdown( Or is that count up) from minus 222k toward zero, you never know it may even go past zero now wouldn't that be a bonus.

Couta your killing me--are you sure your not having us on? This could almost be the troll of the year.
If not ,At least you have got the wonderful ability to make everyone else feel better.
Please lay off the buying for a while--even if you dont want to sell.

[couta1]

Couta your killing me--are you sure your not having us on? This could almost be the troll of the year.
If not ,At least you have got the wonderful ability to make everyone else feel better.
Please lay off the buying for a while--even if you dont want to sell.
Not having anyone on just being straight up and hopefully bringing some comfort to others who are toughing it out currently as well as presenting a warning to newbies about doing things the wrong way, don't really have any money to buy anything right now which is kinda ironic considering buying all the stocks I hold over again right now would present some serious upside. PS-Id have no problem showing someone on here living in my area my portfolio to prove the above.

[skid]

OK we believe you -i suppose running out of cash is one type of safety net-They say its a correction and not a financial crisis but Im not sure we have seen the bottom yet--Looks like the market is ''taking a breather'' today--Most say a correction is needed anyway with the markets running rampant from QE.
Now they are trying to ween off QE and you can see the result--Fed has had to step in and hint at continuing or even increasing QE again to calm the markets (Are the markets addicted to QE?)
when faced with the prospect of losing future gains or losing what I have ,I choose the former this time around.

Burn those credit cards Couts:)

[klid]

Money printing - http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/16/investing/stocks-markets-wild-wall-street/
Ebola under control in the US - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/republicans-slam-ebola-response-that-cdc-director-defends.html
Upcoming US earnings data should be positive - No source sorry but I did read it.

So I am not so worried now. Cancelled my order at 88 I had.

[samshields]

Where do you live? I'd love to have a nosey and a chat

[skid]

Your first point certainly saved the day (for now) The money printing thing is good for the short term but its what before would have been unthinkable to consider--Are they destined to go indefinitely on life support?
Your second point is misleading in the sense that its one of those things that no one can really say.
There were 100 people on the plane the sick nurse was on--It has an up to 40 day incubation period--There will be more ,you can count on it.
Your first point is probably the most important for your purposes for now though--so far so good--hows those balls holding up?

[couta1]

Where do you live? I'd love to have a nosey and a chat
Wellington:cool:

[skid]

Heres the first paragraph of your article(Klid)

Republican lawmakers sharply criticized the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s response to the Ebola outbreak as agency director Thomas Frieden said the virus is not a “significant public health threat




What a joke (a bad one) one guy comes in with Ebola--2 Nurses treating him--all end up with the desease.

What planet is Thomas Frieden on?

[Crystal Ball]

Wellington:cool:

So Couta, you been skiing at Ruapehu then? I figured that you were a South Islander and were hitting those lovely slopes- although I think they have closed the fields now I think?
just been down for 3 awesome days at Turoa, just gorgeous and the season closes next week I think.....
Like reading your candid assessment on things btw., good to see you are not panicking and just riding it out......

[couta1]

So Couta, you been skiing at Ruapehu then? I figured that you were a South Islander and were hitting those lovely slopes- although I think they have closed the fields now I think?
just been down for 3 awesome days at Turoa, just gorgeous and the season closes next week I think.....
Like reading your candid assessment on things btw., good to see you are not panicking and just riding it out......
Yeah CB have done about 8 days at Ruapehu this season mainly at Turoa which I love,was invited to go this week with friends but had to work, will hopefully get one last day next week, also did 8 days on the Queenstown fields but they are all closed now, I was a ski bum at Mt Hutt for a couple of seasons in my late teens and then had a 30 year break only starting back up at the ripe age of 50 three years ago, glad you enjoy your skiing its a great sport and helps keep life balanced and ride out these difficult share market times.

[klid]

Those republicans :)

Skid yeah the money is bandaid stuff but a bandaid at the right time can stop a big bleed? :)

But yes not up to sctatch handling, nethertheless it should be adequate. If ebola pops up in other US cities then Im selling even my uranium stocks. Well maybe not those ones.

[skid]

Yes the FED seems to want to stop the correction(guess they dont agree with those who think its a healthy thing for the economy--guess we will find out if its working tonight.
I have no doubt Ebola will pop up in other US cities but its not a given that it will crash the share market---lets hope it can be contained

#1 priority--dont get Ebola
#2priority--do well on the Share market:)

[skid]

I cant remember seeing a day with such low volume in a long time--guess it not surprising--everyone sitting tight and waiting to see....

[Crystal Ball]

Yeah CB have done about 8 days at Ruapehu this season mainly at Turoa which I love,was invited to go this week with friends but had to work, will hopefully get one last day next week, also did 8 days on the Queenstown fields but they are all closed now, I was a ski bum at Mt Hutt for a couple of seasons in my late teens and then had a 30 year break only starting back up at the ripe age of 50 three years ago, glad you enjoy your skiing its a great sport and helps keep life balanced and ride out these difficult share market times.

Same, late learner early 20' s , then got into other things and resumed back when the son s decided they wanted to snowboard. Can t beat a good day at Turoa! Good snow coverage at the top but of course gets slushy by about the Giant cafe. Hope it doesn t rain much this weekend which would be a disaster for the snow. Got my eye on the weather too for next week- looking a bit dodgy though..
Yep, good to get away from the computer and enjoy other things. You seem to have a nice calm demeanor regarding your shares, a nice change from the doom merchants out there who seem to hang onto the hourly change of the share price as if the end of the world was nigh....

[Minerbarejet]

https://www.priorityhealth.com/provider/manual/auths/~/media/documents/medical-policies/91562.pdf

Getting there, -------- slowly

[psychic]

With the Blue Cross/ Blue Shield and AHRQ review due between now and Nov, things are going to get exciting eh.
It seems to be the way new tests etc progress along the approval trail.
From no mention in medical policy, to flag raised and mentioned, to yup - we cover it. And they'll all leap at the same time.
Yeeehaw..

[Santiago]

What happened to Spain? Wasn't that supposed to be early this year? And Medicare/ Medicaid? I haven't been following this too closely, but they seem to have missed some targets, unless I missed something. Any idea when their half year results are out?

[Casino]

What happened to Spain? Wasn't that supposed to be early this year? And Medicare/ Medicaid? I haven't been following this too closely, but they seem to have missed some targets, unless I missed something. Any idea when their half year results are out?

Many of those 'targets' stem from one or two newspaper articles last December. I'm still waiting for them to be clarified one way or another.

[MAC]

Many of those 'targets' stem from one or two newspaper articles last December. I'm still waiting for them to be clarified one way or another.

The Medicare/Medicaid target if you would like to call it that, was provided in last October’s capital raising presentation;

"Pacific Edge anticipates continuing and concluding negotiations in earnest with Medicare and Medicaid in 2014. Pacific Edge has already conducted preliminary discussions with these entities"

The update during the AGM was that yes, CMS have been accruing revenues for Cxbladder tests performed thus far. So, Pacific Edge are pretty much on track against what they told us, they do though yet need to conclude negotiations before those revenues are released.

On that basis there should be a nice step in revenues probably at FY15 reporting, but not for HY15 as the reporting period ended on 30th September.

Trust this assists.

[Casino]

The Medicare/Medicaid target if you would like to call it that, was provided in last October’s capital raising presentation;

"Pacific Edge anticipates continuing and concluding negotiations in earnest with Medicare and Medicaid in 2014. Pacific Edge has already conducted preliminary discussions with these entities"

The update during the AGM was that yes, CMS have been accruing revenues for Cxbladder tests performed thus far. So, Pacific Edge are pretty much on track against what they told us, they do though yet need to conclude negotiations before those revenues are released.

On that basis there should be a nice step in revenues probably at FY15 reporting, but not for HY15 as the reporting period ended on 30th September.

Trust this assists.

I remember reading that CMS could go through in early 2014. Obviously that didn't happen and we have not been given any indication how close they are to finalising the deal. I can imagine that getting CMS coverage isn't easy at the moment with all this regulatory chaos in the US. I also don't expect sales for the period ending September but I want to be talked to/kept informed.

[Casino]

As I posted earlier in the year - after going to a talk by DD - CMS is now expected early next year (2015)

That's great but the place for this is the NZX not the Herald, not the ODT and certainly not sharetrader (no offence).

[MAC]

I remember reading that CMS could go through in early 2014. Obviously that didn't happen and we have not been given any indication how close they are to finalising the deal. I can imagine that getting CMS coverage isn't easy at the moment with all this regulatory chaos in the US. I also don't expect sales for the period ending September but I want to be talked to/kept informed.

It does seem to be a staged sequential process that does take time, it's probable they have indeed been accruing those revenues since early 2014, so we may consider that is all fine, would be nice to see a final conclusion by years end as anticipated.

But at the end of the day, whether the final conclusion occurred tomorrow or in March next year the accumulated revenues would still fall into the FY15 reporting period, not HY15.

No one should retain a false expectation of Medicare/Medicaid revenues at HY15 reporting in November.

[Minerbarejet]

Just to put things in context a bit.
The original time frame for CMS coverage was expected to be August 2014 when lengthy negotiations would be concluded. This I believe was before the current upheaval in the US system. So far there has been a delay of a whole 6 weeks. At the meeting in Auckland Newguy believed DD had said that it would be late 2014 or early 2015. So far he is right. This accumulation of medicare payments is a fairly recent appearance although we were aware that cxbladder was available for their use. How much is the big question and when do we see the folding stuff. In addition I think the only announcement you will get is that CMS has started coverage, details of the amount involved would only appear in financial accounts for HY or FY. Hardly think it is something they would put out as part of any announcement.
Must agree that the waiting seems interminable at times. Never ceases to amaze me how days and years can fly by so fast and months take forever.

[Minerbarejet]

https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=19&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEsQFjAIOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.xconomy.com%2Fsan-diego%2F2009%2F12%2F12%2Fsan-diegos-biotheranostics-gears-up-to-sell-test-to-predict-breast-cancer-relapse-risk%2F&ei=C_RBVJuuMsa_mwXns4GwCQ&usg=AFQjCNGyx3ZylfYTbhjyITg6qro03sOzpQ&sig2=01ixBf7Jy7Vwl4vH6trCDA


This may give a view of what goes on with a small company much the same as PEB and its pathway through the mire of regulation. Interesting to note, from elsewhere, that they have just received CMS coverage and have recently signed up FEDMED. Also interesting that their test is $3000.00 to $4000.00. Its an assay for breast cancer I know but it sounds very similar to cxbladder with what is involved.
Havent fully explored all this yet as there are all kinds of links. Something for a wet Sunday afternoon perhaps.


This came up on a Genomeweb alert which has from time to time come up with a lot of interesting stuff. Well worth signing up for at no cost.
Googling the company brings up a lot of other pages. Work in progress.

[barney]

http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.asp?ID=CRD42014013284

[MAC]

http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.asp?ID=CRD42014013284

They are collating in the UK on behalf of the AHRQ,

http://effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov/ehc/products/571/1941/bladder-cancer-non-muscle-invasive-protocol-140721.pdf

Pacific Edge are participating and, as I understand, have provided their clinical information. The results may well indeed demonstrate Cxbladder as best in breed amongst the urinary biomaker tests available, let's see. Perhaps it's possible that this review may also lead to some adjustment to the gold standard also.

[MAC]

Yes, it is certainly one of the most important developments this year for Pacific Edge.

If Cxbladder is demonstrated as adoptable within an endorsed best practice by government research agencies with that sort of clout it may even start to make that 10% market share goal seem a really quite light on ambition.

Results in February, hopefully it won’t be one of those studies that recommends extensive further investigation, would be satisfying as a shareholder to see some form of conclusive acknowledgement.

It’s the sort of prospective endorsement that just simply couldn’t be bought with even the largest of marketing budgets, couldn't be easily ignored by even the most stoic urology practice.

[RTM]

Does anyone have an idea on when the review will be completed ? Yes, if its favourable for PEB, then that will be great, but I guess there is a chance that it may not be as positive as we all hope/think it might be. I learnt a new term on another thread today which made me think a wee bit about myself

".....you have a strong tendency towards confirmation bias."

Disc: Yes, I have some and intend to hold till the end.


Hi Barney & MAC, this is really excellent news. In fact the timing is absolutely perfect, Pacific Edge Diagnostics are into a commercial roll-out with ‘User Program’ data becoming available; best test on the market and statistically better (published results) than the incumbents (cytology, BTA, NMP22 etc.).

A totally independent and thorough investigation and, for CxBladder to be included really means it is well and truly on the radar in the United States.

To be published in such a wide ranging review that will encompass all clinical practices and challenge (review) all process will certainly put CxBladder directly under the noses of urologists, GP’s and clinicians.

The American AHRQ (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality) has commissioned the Effective Health Care Program to complete a review of the evidence for:

PROJECT NAME: Emerging Approaches to Diagnosis and Treatment of Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer.

AUTHORED: The Oregon Health & Science University, Pacific Northwest Evidence-Based Practice Center.

AND, obviously the NCCN (National Comprehensive Cancer Network) and AUA (American Urological Association) will take note of the results and it could easily influence or guide their decisions and content of future publications.

The anticipated completion date is 9th February 2015, and I think it is just an awesome opportunity that will have major benefits for Pacific Edge Diagnostics.

HyperLink: Emerging Approaches to Diagnosis & Treatment Bladder Cancer (http://effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov/ehc/products/571/1941/bladder-cancer-non-muscle-invasive-protocol-140721.pdf)

As I understand it; The Centre for Reviews and Dissemination is a department of the University of York and PROSPERO is their International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; however the review will not be undertaken by the UK, it will be American.

[psychic]

Does anyone have an idea on when the review will be completed ? Yes, if its favourable for PEB, then that will be great, but I guess there is a chance that it may not be as positive as we all hope/think it might be. I learnt a new term on another thread today which made me think a wee bit about myself

".....you have a strong tendency towards confirmation bias."

Disc: Yes, I have some and intend to hold till the end.

Hi RTM. Public submissions closed 3/10, the final review is due for completion 9th Feb 2015

My thoughts, It'd be nice, but unlikely likely the review will come out and suggest using Cxbladder and throw out everything else. The Health game being conservative as it is, I'm hoping it will simply introduce Cxbladder into the clinical pathway with a view to increasing use and endorsement as time goes on.
The big thing is that the review is LIMITED to the existing FDA approved biomarkers AND Cxbladder. None other. That it is specifically included in the Review, speaks volumes already to me.

[psychic]

Note also that Medicare will typically follow AHRQ recommendation. Insurers will follow.
Yes, huge....

[RTM]

Thanks Psychic and Hancocks. That's a pretty speedy outcome.
Look forward to the outcome with a lot of interest.
Cheers.

[NT001]

I would have thought this might merit a news release from DD welcoming the fact that CxBladder is being assessed alongside the existing FDA approved biomarkers. Most companies would do this, without raising hopes too high.

[MAC]

I would have thought this might merit a news release from DD welcoming the fact that CxBladder is being assessed alongside the existing FDA approved biomarkers. Most companies would do this, without raising hopes too high.

I suppose they are under no obligation to announce it, maybe the results in February, perhaps there’s no need at all as at the end of the day it’s more a marketing tool than anything else.

Of all the glossy docs that the sales folk may leave on an HMO manager’s desk when they are done with the chit chat may well be a copy of that AHRQ report.

“Have a read of this and we can talk about it next time”.

[blobbles]

I would have thought this might merit a news release from DD welcoming the fact that CxBladder is being assessed alongside the existing FDA approved biomarkers. Most companies would do this, without raising hopes too high.

News of possible future news is not news in my books. Huh?

[Dentie]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11348745&ref=newsl_afternoonnewsdirect_J20080609_142008_171 6_1129_825738151

Oh well, I guess if it comes from the US.....it must be good! Got FDA approval too.....

[etrader]

I see a kiwi guys has partnered with otago innovation with a systems that relates to Ebola, I know peb has a link to otago innovation, would there be any potential connection for peb on this company

[Crystal Ball]

We are about a month away from getting the PEL Preliminary Half Year Report and I thought that I should post what I have gleaned from various sources i.e. LinkedIn profiles and Pacific Edge Diagnostics job descriptions etc. thus far.

The intent was to get a feel for progress on the commercial roll out of CxBladder in lieu of any company release. Because the post is only about that, I have removed the names of the people belonging to the various roles; and, where they have posted personal addresses and work in the laboratory, for clarity, I have used the laboratory address of Hershey Pennsylvania.

Below is a map showing the sales areas where I can identify an Account Manager. For progress since CLIA registration (March 2013) it looks pretty good to me. Keep in mind that there was an initial recruitment a few months after registration, and then a subsequent one less than a year or so later.

6423

Below is the map from the Capital Raising of October 2013 in which Pacific Edge outlined the Sales Territories for the company’s contract sales force. There were 19 listed; but, it looks like we have a new one of ‘Central Region USA’ for a total of 20. The red rings indicate the general sales area. I have not put a ring on Southern California (Kaiser Permanente) as I have yet to identify an Account Manager.

6424

Below is a list of the roles identified and the starting and leaving dates (if applicable) as can be seen there are a couple of gaps and there may be a couple of wee errors. The profiles of the staff would indicate that Pacific Edge Diagnostics are gathering some really smart people around who appear to have some great experience; however, note that 75% of the Account Managers have five months or less time to get trained and introduced to their sales regions. Pacific Edge Diagnostics and CxBladder have though had exposure at Urological Association meetings etc. and approached LUG's (Large Urology Groups), National & Regional Provider Networks and of course Kaiser Permanente Southern California – so for the few people that they have had, they achieved a hell of a lot.

6425

It has been a quiet few month with not much news from Pacific Edge Limited, so I suppose 'idle hands' - but I'm half expecting them (Pacific Edge) to lay out some good news soon, but in the meantime I'm comfortable that they are doing all they can to increase revenue and I'm very happy to be holding.
Many thanks for posting all this research Hancocks- a good read !

[klid]

Yea thanks... I don't know about speculating based on that. Since David doesn't seem to be prepared to show shareholders that they're making progress (not saying that is a bad idea at all!) but it is what I want to see. So I am very keen to see the trading revenue for the 6 months, and would expect it to be in excess of $1m.

I sold at 90/89/88. I would buy back in if it were greater than 1m, which it may well be, can we get some guesses going? :P
I will probably buy in before they announce sales, hoping for good news.

[skid]

Klid -you say you will buy back in if revenue is greater than 1 mil--but you will probably buy back in before they announce sales ??????

Disc. I bought in before last sales hoping for good news,which was'nt so good that time around--going to sit this one out.

May buy back in if it looks like they are on their way

[klid]

skid yeah if I did buy before, then it was UNDER $1m, would probably sell again. Just don't want to miss out on any initial surge you know.

[Minerbarejet]

With all the hyping this company like's to do it has been a very quiet year.
Me thinks this has turned into an optimists investment.
Skid........ Good decision to sit out before the coming sales result skid.Lol, gidday Snap. Care to enlighten us what a pessimists investment looks like.
Most airlines will advise that a good time to get on board is before takeoff.
Cheers

[axe]

Lol, gidday Snap. Care to enlighten us what a pessimists investment looks like.
Most airlines will advise that a good time to get on board is before takeoff.
Cheers

Same airlines advise you that a good time to fasten seatbelt is before they crash. :scared: ( not that i think PEB is heading for a crash)

[skid]

That would be great advise Miner,if this was an airline but,unlike the Airline ,you can jump on board after it takes off.
Im not down ramping--there are a number of ways to invest.
Another option if your keen on staying in to take advantage of an upswing if sales are good-is to keep a close eye on when the report comes out--If it turns out to be not good ,you can then sell fast to avoid most of the drop(kind of like the opposite of jumping on after, if its a good result.)---Im picking it will not rocket (like the good ole days) if sales are good-but will increase in a more controlled manner-The market has changed IMO from those days

[Minerbarejet]

Same airlines advise you that a good time to fasten seatbelt is before they crash. :scared: ( not that i think PEB is heading for a crash)Well at least with PEB there is some kind of runway in front of them, reasonably well marked and hopefully of sufficient length. This taxiway we are on at the moment seems to have a bit of cross traffic here and there but possibly departure is imminent.:)

[klid]

That's right about being able to jump in/out early (like right after news) before the others move the price to where it "should be" skid, esp with this stock that hardly gets traded, relatively speaking.

Well snapiti you were right about the disappointing number of tests ~6 months ago so I guess you'll be right this time too. Last time you were saying fewer than 1,000 tests, which was probably about how many they sold (526k trading revenue... wasn't it? What do the tests go for in NZ (where most would be sold)) maybe a bit more than 1000, not sure. Anyway... do you have an idea of revenue/tests this time around?

This is what the market is looking for too, I think it was mentioned in the Edison report (something along the lines of the share price moving considerably if good sales proof comes).

When is this report due? Because I recall seeing both November and December!

[Minerbarejet]

That would be great advise Miner,if this was an airline but,unlike the Airline ,you can jump on board after it takes off.
Im not down ramping--there are a number of ways to invest.
Another option if your keen on staying in to take advantage of an upswing if sales are good-is to keep a close eye on when the report comes out--If it turns out to be not good ,you can then sell fast to avoid most of the drop(kind of like the opposite of jumping on after, if its a good result.)---Im picking it will not rocket (like the good ole days) if sales are good-but will increase in a more controlled manner-The market has changed IMO from those daysAgree with that, there is a more controlled response these days, good news of either unknown quantity or long term effects provides either a slight jump or stability whereas before it was all over the place. However the longer we go on without any news at all until either confirmation of CMS or a substantial sales effort comes to light the more the upswing will be when it does arrive. Bound to be a few surprises with this one.
Hope it doesnt burst a tyre on takeoff.:)

[Minerbarejet]

That's right about being able to jump in/out early (like right after news) before the others move the price to where it "should be" skid, esp with this stock that hardly gets traded, relatively speaking.

Well snapiti you were right about the disappointing number of tests ~6 months ago so I guess you'll be right this time too. Last time you were saying fewer than 1,000 tests, which was probably about how many they sold (526k trading revenue... wasn't it? What do the tests go for in NZ (where most would be sold)) maybe a bit more than 1000, not sure. Anyway... do you have an idea of revenue/tests this time around?

This is what the market is looking for too, I think it was mentioned in the Edison report (something along the lines of the share price moving considerably if good sales proof comes).

When is this report due? Because I recall seeing both November and December!A preliminary report will be out late November to be followed by the actual full Half Year report late December.
However, as Mac and others have pointed out we shouldnt be expecting much of an increase, its still too early. The big advantage is we will have 3 figures to show the expotential curve at last.
Personally I would be enraptured with 3300 to end of Sept.

This is based on the Independant Minerbarejet Pseudofibonacci Expotential Curve Calibration Analysis Breakdown Laterally Extended
Otherwise known as IMPECCABLE
Merry Christmas:)

[skid]

Agree with that, there is a more controlled response these days, good news of either unknown quantity or long term effects provides either a slight jump or stability whereas before it was all over the place. However the longer we go on without any news at all until either confirmation of CMS or a substantial sales effort comes to light the more the upswing will be when it does arrive. Bound to be a few surprises with this one.
Hope it doesnt burst a tyre on takeoff.:)

which begs the question--which would gather more momentum-an upswing(good news) or a downswing (not good news) guess market sentiment will be a factor as well.

If memory serves -the information last time came at a slightly different time than we were expecting it by a few days.
It would be helpful to know the exact reporting date to be prepared.
(managed to complete an entire post without referring to an airline--whoops):)

[Minerbarejet]

which begs the question--which would gather more momentum-an upswing(good news) or a downswing (not good news) guess market sentiment will be a factor as well.

If memory serves -the information last time came at a slightly different time than we were expecting it by a few days.
It would be helpful to know the exact reporting date to be prepared.
(managed to complete an entire post without referring to an airline--whoops):)All of which puts in focus the fact that they are obliged to make an announcement before the end of November. How much before is unknown, - could be today.:eek2:
Sorry - you will probably have to take your chances like the rest of us.:)

[skid]

Miner ,dont you sleep? or are you in OZ:)

Dont you have the new app that sounds an alarm and flashes red lights ,the minute an announcement comes out from PEB:):)

It does seem weird though as alot of companies have an established reporting date.

[Minerbarejet]

Miner ,dont you sleep? or are you in OZ:)

Dont you have the new app that sounds an alarm and flashes red lights ,the minute an announcement comes out from PEB:):)

It does seem weird though as alot of companies have an established reporting date.Lol, that would be handy but I would prefer green lights if possible.:)
Think if you go to Pacific Edge website it will give you most of the dates for previous releases.

[MAC]

Dentie & Hancocks,

Have I got this right, Pacific Edge have suggested that sales via the NPN’s have a seven month lead time before the first sales will in practice really start to come through those channels.

Acknowledging of course that the ‘seven months’ is in all practicality just a coarse estimate provided by Pacific Edge, probably based on a feel for the market from their discussions with NPN managers.

The accumulation of sales might then commence from May for Fedmed, July for ACPN, August for Stratos and November for Multiplan.

The pending reporting period is April through September, so we may just see some very early sales start to trickle in, it would be nice though just to see the NPN sales curve initiate.

Without Medicare revenues being released within this reporting period, my estimate for the HY is for between 1,000 to 5,000 thousand sales, probably closer to the lower end of that range, although it would be nice to be pleasantly surprised.

6429

[MAC]

I think also Hancock’s what some often miss in the big picture is the anticipated gross margins.

It’s such a low overhead company, helped along by low cost development in Dunedin, low cost but high quality I would say though as a caveat. The labs are all built and paid for, COGS is just test processing, sales force and overheads.

It doesn’t take a lot of sales to become very quickly profitable at 81% gross margins, around 15,000 by my estimation.

Pacific Edge are not at all like tech stocks whereby years of revenue accumulation is first required to achieve economies of scale to then achieve profitability on relatively lower margins.

Should the KP user programme that’s presently underway roll over into a contract, and I see a lot more reason why it should than should not, then my calculator tells me that one contract alone would probably make Pacific Edge a profitable going concern.

The next 12 to 18 months are really quite prospective, and this pending report I anticipate may spell that out, but no one should expect big sales at this next report, too early just yet.

[Minerbarejet]

From the Pacific Edge site, Fedmed signed 16 Oct, ACPN 22 Oct, Stratose 28 Nov and Multiplan 25 May this year. Given 7 months as the gestation period, ACPN should have been generating in May as well as FedMed, Stratose in June.
However, Fedmed was the first to sign up and was used as THE example as to how long it CAN take to get the whole cycle completed. This does not say that others cannot be quicker or slower, in fact I wouldnt be surprised if some of the 170 odd sales at March FY may have emanated from some of the others.

[Dentie]

G’day MAC, not ignoring…been offline.
Considering the info available, I reckon you and Hancocks (& Miner) are about as close to being on the button as can be expected with sales numbers. I remember DD taking the time at the AGM to point out the significance of this 7 month lead in time between signing the agreements and the start of the revenue.
Hancocks, I’m not so sure on the accounting recognition of the accruing CMS business. If they are not free tests (& pretty sure they are not), I can’t see why they wouldn’t be recorded as a Receivable (until the agreement is signed), especially if the relevant COGS/Expenses is being accounted for. I’m sure one of our Accounting friends can help us here though.
In any event, looking at Hancocks’ sales territory diagram the other day, the sales related employees on the books and the current agreements…it is hard to imagine that the next sales figures will be too paltry (which I know is subjective).

[MAC]

Good point Miner,

Looking at the market also, there’s actually been quite a lot of progress compared with this time last year when one reflects, all a good investment in future revenue and all in parallel also, much of that work should one would hope start to come to fruition from next year forward.

- Tests now being performed (accrued) for CMS

- First HMO user programme under way with prospectively a contract coming, and four network providers signed up

- Sales territories opened up with 8 sales staff presumably busy chatting away with LUGS

GOVERNMENTAL 50%
30% CMS (Medicare & Medicaid)
20% VA (Veterans association)

PRIVATE INSURANCE 45%
20% LUGS (Large Urology Groups)
5% Other Urology Practices
20% HMO (Health Maintenance Organisations)

OTHER 5%
5% OSHA (Occupational Health & Safety Associations)

[Harvey Specter]

Hi Dentie, I'm not sure on the accounting side of the CMS issue - the tests are being undertaken and accruing but I do not think they can be invoiced as there is no agreement yet. Perhaps someone with accounting expertise could comment on the issue.

With no contractual right to payment, very unlikely auditors would sign off. Need virtual certainty so if they did book sales, it would be a good sign the contract is very close to signing.

[BFG]

Hey does anyone have a calendar of expected announcements coming up? Going by past ann's we should have the HY on the 28 November.

[Minerbarejet]

Hey does anyone have a calendar of expected announcements coming up? Going by past ann's we should have the HY on the 28 November.
November 28th is a Friday this year. An announcement at 16.59 will give us a whole weekend to get worked up into a complete frenzy over it.:)

Do feel that a calendar of un​expected announcements would be more useful though:)

[Balance]

November 28th is a Friday this year. An announcement at 16.59 will give us a whole weekend to get worked up into a complete frenzy over it.:)

Do feel that a calendar of un​expected announcements would be more useful though:)

The sp action says PEB has made little traction in real sales.

Otherwise, word would leaked out and sp would be above $1.00 by now.