PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd [Archive] - Page 4

binary

06-05-2013, 05:24 PM

binary: DO you like all this dreaming or ramping Others are trying to stop you from being sucked in by all this highly speculative Bull sh*t. Has PEB sold one bladder test yet

Like any informed investor I like to gather information about the stocks I invest in from a number of sources; this forum included. Any good investor, like yourself, is able to determine which information is reliable and useful vs that which is purely speculative.

Whilst PEB carries risk, in my mind and the general consensus of the people on this forum (who are important investors) the reward outweighs the risk.

I'm not entirely sure what you get out of slandering PEB and the posters in the forum. Be it driven by jealousy, blind anger, family issues etc? But please keep your posts informative and useful. Even if they do show PEB to be overtly risky

POSSUM THE CAT

06-05-2013, 05:31 PM

Tumeric if you double $10 you still only get $20 You get better odds on small bets at the casino. We wish to here about good investments here not highly speculative gambling

binary

06-05-2013, 05:31 PM

So how many tests has PEB sold then, Johnhy the Horse? You seem to know given nature of your answer. Don't hold back. Let us know.

The answer is 42

POSSUM THE CAT

06-05-2013, 05:33 PM

Binary Big deal what they need to sell is something like 42million

Balance

06-05-2013, 05:36 PM

Bentley/DJAB has rejoined us! He's on my ignore list so I can't see what he says, it only shows up when others reply to him.

Is he still grumpy? Please tell me so....

He is behaving a lot like like moosie's cat.

:D :D :D

binary

06-05-2013, 05:37 PM

And how many would you like to see them sell in the current quarter to keep you a happy camper? Is there a particular rate of increase in sales that you would like to see?

I was designed to come up with the answer, not the question

JohnnyTheHorse

06-05-2013, 05:38 PM

So how many tests has PEB sold then, Johnhy the Horse? You seem to know given nature of your answer. Don't hold back. Let us know.

That number has not really been released (and does not really matter at this stage). The small amount of revenue coming in is from the sale of tests.

Edit: almost posted from the wrong account again - oops! ;)

binary

06-05-2013, 05:42 PM

That number has not really been released (and does not really matter at this stage). The small amount of revenue coming in is from the sale of tests.

Edit: almost posted from the wrong account again - oops! ;)

I know how you feel, I sometimes struggle to remember which of my 5 accounts I'm on at times.

binary

06-05-2013, 05:46 PM

So it doesn't matter what the companies sales of tests are, turmeric/Johnny-the-Donkey, just so long as the share price continues to climb to reflect a markets potential sales, even though it doesn't actually make them. Oy vey................and you're calling me ill-informed!

DJAB before jumping into the tirade about whose dick is bigger please first ponder what the current position of PEB is. With all your wisdom and deep thought you may come to a slightly altered conclusion on the importance of PEB's current sales in relation to their share price

JohnnyTheHorse

06-05-2013, 05:47 PM

So it doesn't matter what the companies sales of tests are, turmeric/Johnny-the-Donkey, just so long as the share price continues to climb to reflect a markets potential sales, even though it doesn't actually make them. Oy vey................and you're calling me ill-informed!

Well considering they have only just started commercialising the product in the US, no, the sales don't matter. The sales within the next year will matter though. How many companies do you know that reached peak sales on the first day of commercialisation? ;)

Oh and DJAB, would you be so kind to give us a list of some of the companies you are invested in? Just out of curiosity really.

binary

06-05-2013, 05:59 PM

Absolutely, and that's why a share price of over 70c for example in the absence of any sales data is simply not justified. If folks what to gamble, go for it, but don't kid yourselves that you're investors.

You are just trolling aren't you.

Because if you are not you are just a very sad individual and nobody is sad enough to actually believe the crap you are spouting with no evidence of actually ever researching PEB.

Well played DJAB but I must stop feeding the troll.

Balance

06-05-2013, 06:45 PM

Ok, I'm at the beach, so my maths might be a little fuzzy. Please feel free to correct my numbers below.

There are approximately 73,000 new cases in 2012 in the USA.
http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/types/bladder

Around 1 million people present to their doctor with blood in their urine, needing a test to check to see if they have bladder cancer.
http://www.cxbladder.com/news/article/41

This means that there would be around 73,000 X between 4-6 diagnostic tests a year (bladder cancer needs to be tested regularly). Plus 900,000 who get at least one test. This also assume that every person with bladder cancer has a health insurance policy which gives them regular cancer diagnostic tests if needed.

So, 800,000 to 1,200,000 diagnostic tests, potentially. Call it 750,000 to be conservative. This is a USD $1 billion dollar market
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/images/Content/annual_reports/Annual_Report_2012.pdf (page 12)

If Pacific Edge can get 1% of this in FY2013, then they will have 7,500 tests done at around $800USD a pop.

That's $6m USD, or $7.3M NZD.

Figure their margins are around 50% to get to NPAT, meaning roughly $3.65m in earnings for 2013.

There are 278m shares on issue.

That means 3.65 / 278 = 0.013, or 1.3cps in earnings.

If they can grow from 1.3cps by 50% a year for the next five years, then they deserve to be worth $1.30 at the end of FY2013.

And what happens when they release other diagnostic products like Colorectal and gastric cancer diagnostic tests?

And what happens if they grab more than 1% of the US bladder cancer diagnostic market?

For the benefit of those who are new and joining the discussion on PEB.

Share price then was under 50 cents.

blobbles

06-05-2013, 06:47 PM

Absolutely, and that's why a share price of over 70c for example in the absence of any sales data is simply not justified. If folks what to gamble, go for it, but don't kid yourselves that you're investors.

So according to your logic DJAB, nobody should ever invest in start up companies because they haven't sold anything yet.

Don't kid yourself that you're an investor.

Imagine a world where nobody funded any company until they had heaps of sales? Brilliant advice DJAB, I wonder why nobody is listening to you.

Balance

06-05-2013, 07:18 PM

So according to your logic DJAB, nobody should ever invest in start up companies because they haven't sold anything yet.

Don't kid yourself that you're an investor.

Imagine a world where nobody funded any company until they had heaps of sales? Brilliant advice DJAB, I wonder why nobody is listening to you.

He has just been banned so I am afraid that we are going to be deprived of the pleasure of his 'knowledge'.

So gutted :( :( :(

Minerbarejet

06-05-2013, 07:24 PM

phweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. Halftime. lets get some light refreshments :)

Minerbarejet

06-05-2013, 07:39 PM

flamingo themed party drinks spiked with some of my special SUM recipe! sweeeeeeet! Do you have a PEB recipe? Also are your flamingoes neutered?
no aminals were hurt in the making of this post.:):)

POSSUM THE CAT

06-05-2013, 07:51 PM

Sparky The Clown that is providing their Medical insurers a gree to fund the PEB test & not some other one. Get real on the American health system. I s it even approved for Full subsidy here Both Public & Private. Every body is entitled to their own thoughts on this product without having other people ram their opinions down their neck. My investment horizon for a share is to hold it for at least 10 Years. Also to leave alone not even bother to look at the shares that others in MHO are trying to pump the sh*t out of. This is the reason that I take the negative view of any share that posters give me that impression of. I can make more than I can spend by looking at banks & other shares that have solid earnings behind them & give solid dividend streams. This is being pushed just like Bliss was some years ago 7 where is it now. I can understand your interest & faith from your posts. But others are just jumping on the band wagon & trying to make it look like Gods gift to share investors. Because it is being pushed up a few cents in a short time just like Bliss was some years ago. Just operating like Lemmings.

Dej

06-05-2013, 08:41 PM

God this thread has gone down the drain IMHO... its sad.

Back to proper discussion ABOUT THIS COMPANY.

Cheers.

Dej

07-05-2013, 08:45 AM

Back to the company and SP...

Looks like we had a false test of a breakthrough last week, and after Fridays capitulation and yesterdays price action a false sell signal from the MACD and stochaistic indicators. RSI still steady above 50 and trending upwards however on the back of higher volume. Bulls remain in control of the market, although news will be needed to push PEB higher in the coming days. Can see the SP consolidating between 60 and 70 with no news, with an average buy-in of 65 and above.

Thanks moosie!

Ftom my spreadsheet of evil, looking at a price 63-64 by weeks end if no news. Unless we have another panic sell. (or panic buy ;-) )

Minerbarejet

07-05-2013, 09:12 AM

The answer is 42
Could you possibly enlighten me and others as to where you found this figure if it is correct as I'm sure we would all like to keep tabs on it. Thanks Binary

Minerbarejet

07-05-2013, 09:40 AM

Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is your friend Major ;)
Thought you might come back with something like that. Nice one. Or I suppose its a nice one as I havent read it.
Suppose 42 could now be known as a binary number. :)
Back to the thread - anyone have a place we can check sales out or is it all spec at the moment?

JohnnyTheHorse

07-05-2013, 09:52 AM

Trying to predict what the SP will do with this stock is almost impossible. It only takes one or two big buyers or sellers to really move the price in a short space of time.

Balance

07-05-2013, 10:53 AM

Trying to predict what the SP will do with this stock is almost impossible. It only takes one or two big buyers or sellers to really move the price in a short space of time.

Exactly.

Just like with Diligent and Xero in the old days.

The share price action in recent days suggest a tussle between a big buyer and a big seller.

Why would someone pay up every morning at opening unless it is to induce more selling?

Schrodinger

07-05-2013, 11:18 AM

Snow Leopard

07-05-2013, 12:06 PM

Back to the company and SP...

Looks like we had a false test of a breakthrough last week, and after Fridays capitulation and yesterdays price action a false sell signal from the MACD and stochaistic indicators. RSI still steady above 50 and trending upwards however on the back of higher volume. Bulls remain in control of the market, although news will be needed to push PEB higher in the coming days. Can see the SP consolidating between 60 and 70 with no news, with an average buy-in of 65 and above.

Thank you for you regular thoughts on share price movements.

Do you do weather forecasts as well?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

POSSUM THE CAT

07-05-2013, 12:11 PM

Moosie 90 (so if you had invested ten years ago and finally looked at it now you would have been massively in profit. whoops!) You need to engage your Brain I would be down the drain at least $10000.00 in loss of profits the money would have earned elsewhere.

Snow Leopard

07-05-2013, 12:13 PM

New to this company. Can somebody explain to me how they are going to make money in the US? Are they going to do this directly or with a major partner. If directly how much cash do they have?

I have noticed people talking up PEB and talking down XRO. XRO is selling things successfully while PEB is yet to. PEB could be a gem so I would appreciate a crash course in why it is good.

With a name such as yours you should easily appreciate that the future outcome for this company is uncertain.
The extremes are:
that it goes under trying and failing to reach a reasonable sales quantity in the American market despite having a good product;
it captures a good slice of the market, cash flow and then profits follow and they come up with related products and grow into a big successful company and the shareholders do very well.
Or anything between.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Schrodinger

07-05-2013, 12:43 PM

Thanks for the links. I am interested in the commercialisation potential of the business. I don't see a lot of comment about it.

It is very rare for an NZ company such as this to crack the US market. Although this hasn't been done before this company maybe the first. I am mainly concerned about who will actually pay money for the products as I find this is a good indication of scaling potential.

From my research I can't find a major partner with established sales channels mentioned so I assume the company is going alone on the sales and marketing.

Generally if the product is top notch it shouldn't have any issues with attracting partners however even the best products may fail to commercialise without the proper channel development.

I have no doubt from the comments I have read that they have a good product but there is a big gap in information on the sales side.

These types of business have not been successfully globalised from NZ. If they can do it that would be great but I have to sift through a lot of product information while there is hardly any sales information.

Does anyone have thoughts on this and in particular can they develop the channels in their export markets alone or will they have to solely rely upon a partner?

07-05-2013, 01:05 PM

Schrodinger - the US lab was only certified in March (?) so there has only been a short time they have been able to offer it to doctors. They will be targeting the specialists now and hopefully the next announcement will show that they are being successful.

POSSUM THE CAT

07-05-2013, 01:18 PM

CJ are they handing out Free samples it is probably the only way they will get Doctors or Laboratories to pressure the insurance companies to fund it

POSSUM THE CAT

07-05-2013, 01:24 PM

Moosie 900 so why did you judge others by yourself then saying they would have made a fortune by investing in PEB so long ago. Please put brain into gear now & then.

07-05-2013, 01:36 PM

CJ are they handing out Free samples it is probably the only way they will get Doctors or Laboratories to pressure the insurance companies to fund itNot sure it is the 'free sample' kind of test since it has to be sent away.

I am sure any doctor that asked would get a kit sent to their practice so they can workout the timeframes/logistics etc.

blobbles

07-05-2013, 02:06 PM

Something PEB should do, I feel, is to give away say 1000 products to specialists for evaluation, giving them the results back in exchange for the comparison with whatever their current method is for each patient. This is essentially a huge clinical trial, but if their product is excellent and the results show it, the specialists that are involved would have no problem recommending it in the future and switching to it. As obtaining the sample from the patient is completely painless (and may already being done by the doctors), I don't see a problem with doctors trying something new and probably better.

The cost of such an exercise would be around $1 million but it would market the product, show its performance on a large scale (the previous clinical trial being only 60 odd patients from memory) and provide a testing ground for product implementation. This seems like the next logical step for me, does anyone know if something like this is in the pipeline or are they simply trying to sell it straight away?

binary

07-05-2013, 06:04 PM

Could you possibly enlighten me and others as to where you found this figure if it is correct as I'm sure we would all like to keep tabs on it. Thanks Binary

Yea I have no idea on sales. I would imagine we may hear some news in the next 3 months on sales however wouldnt be suprised if we have to wait for the half year report.

Was just a test of DJAB's intelligence.

emearg

07-05-2013, 09:23 PM

Okay peeps...I just can't read two or three pages of crap every day on this thread to find an occasional useful point. Can somebody please message me when this thread gets back on track. Cheers

blah

08-05-2013, 12:20 PM

I've been watching PEB for the last month or so. It seems like a horribly volatile stock even without any substantive news - what is the reason for this?

GRIFFIN

08-05-2013, 12:30 PM

blah, volatile may be but this is a company is just getting its ducks in a row and will most likely be one of those stocks in the not to distant future you wished you had a lot of shares in. You may have any way good luck.,

JohnnyTheHorse

08-05-2013, 07:28 PM

I suspect that the Prelim Annual Report out in a few weeks should cause a SP breakout. I'm expecting some news on Aussie sales (although this doesn't matter too much in my eyes, it wont really give much of an indication as to what US sales will be like). The thing I'm really looking out for though is news that Cxcolorectal is ready to be commercialised in Australasia. This was meant to be commercialised by the middle of last year, however I suspect commercialising Cxbladder in the US was bit more of a priority.

Schrodinger

08-05-2013, 07:49 PM

Anyone know how they intend to sell it? Are they doing it themselves? Will Americans like kiwis turning up and telling them to suck eggs? If they are doing this themselves who is pounding the pavement and removing the cultural bias from US doctors who are notoriously difficult to sell too.

JohnnyTheHorse

08-05-2013, 08:03 PM

Johnny, My understanding is that CxColorectal is on hold until they have rolled out CxBladder.

Ah, thanks for that Sparky. Probably the best approach to take.

etrader

08-05-2013, 10:11 PM

Ah, thanks for that Sparky. Probably the best approach to take.

I have invested into this stock last year and regardless of the ups and downs I'm keeping this for a 3 - 5 year hold.

I like how the CEO is very humble in his approach with the firm.

I'm not about to justify all my reasons why with spreadsheets but my firm view is unless this stock gets taken out my a large player it will reach $3 - $5 within 5 years given their ambitions an products in near phase.

DYOR and my next post won't be till north of $1

GRIFFIN

09-05-2013, 07:48 AM

etrader, we all look forward to your next post very soon.

Minerbarejet

09-05-2013, 08:41 AM

Note reference to Cellmid in Australian section of this mornings Sharetrader AM Update :)

Minerbarejet

09-05-2013, 08:49 AM

:confused:You are on Sharetrader - dont you get the update every morning?
Not sure if you are allowed to redistribute information like that.

Banksie

09-05-2013, 08:57 AM

:confused:You are on Sharetrader - dont you get the update every morning?
Not sure if you are allowed to redistribute information like that.

Thanks major - I had never scrolled far enough down the page to see the newsletter link before :).

Minerbarejet

09-05-2013, 09:20 AM

:) glad to be of help - happy reading
thanks for the NTL offer Moosie but I have enough ATM.
Back to the thread- cant quite get my head around where Cellmid fits in all this. Do they have a patent that PEB has purchased and used to develop their CX Bladder et al? Royalty payments and Milestones would indicate this to me but I could be quite wrong. Do they have exclusive use thereof?
Anyone got the full story or can you point me in the right direction. Thanks

AndyLP

09-05-2013, 09:31 AM

For those of us not subscribed to the newsletter.. are we able to share what was in it?

Banksie

09-05-2013, 09:51 AM

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/42010/cellmid-licensees-advance-commercialisation-of-lung-bladder-tests-42010.html

"The licence between Cellmid (http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/overview/1815/Cellmid) and Pacific Edge, which was agreed to in 2010, provides for a milestone fee payable in shares, which is due on the first sale of Cxbladder in the U.S.

Royalties on revenues are expected to be paid to Cellmid (http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/overview/1815/Cellmid) semi-annually."

Balance

09-05-2013, 10:31 AM

Share traded on PEB every morning has got me beat.

Someone buys a few at the offer price every morning - too obvious to be a price manipulation move.

Minerbarejet

09-05-2013, 12:56 PM

Incidentally; whilst chatting about Cellmid royalties. The original Pacific Edge bladder cancer test (2002 to approx 2005) was initially going to be licensed to others to market and undertake the testing and Pacific Edge was going to get the 1.5%-2% (low %) royalties. It was the drive of the CEO and other key staff that took the project through to a stage where Pacific Edge captures the whole value of their invention. How good is that?
It will be great if and or when some sales are announced. In the meantime my fingernails are getting shorter, (not really) but you know what I mean. Thanks for the info from everyone.:)

Minerbarejet

09-05-2013, 01:47 PM

lol, do I, the younger one, have to teach you some patience Major? Surely you're in the money on NTL as well? If I told you hell was offering a 20% discount on the current SP in order to raise capital, and that I was buying in, would you follow me there as well?
Dont think so Moosie - Ive already been to hell and back with shares. i.e Bought into WHS at 3.40sold some at 3.78 got the div on the rest and sold them at 3.70. Now look at them 4.40.
AAAAAAArrrrrrrrrggggggghhhhh. Typical. Oh well at least I made money.:)
(and will be paying tax):scared:
Back to the thread
PEB is looking good

Banksie

09-05-2013, 01:59 PM

Bought into WHS at 3.40 sold some at 3.78 got the div on the rest and sold them at 3.70. Now look at them 4.40.

If you don't mind me asking - what were your triggers to sell? Did you use trailing stop-losses or was it when some predefined target price was hit?

Minerbarejet

09-05-2013, 01:59 PM

No, PEB is a long term hold for me, like NTL, PGW that I have had since 2007. AOH and NWE in Aussie.

Minerbarejet

09-05-2013, 02:13 PM

If you don't mind me asking - what were your triggers to sell? Did you use trailing stop-losses or was it when some predefined target price was hit?
I dont mind you asking at all - at 10% increase all at once on Torpedo 7 Announcement sufficient to sell half and leave the rest to pick up the Div. Dropped to 3.40 roughly after so took it all out at return to 3.74. Confession - was expecting it to go much lower and would have picked up again at 3.20 - and some of it due to Morningstar having a reduce and 3.00 on the page. Have come to the conclusion that they know about as much about it as I do and I will be ignoring from here on.
Heres hoping they stay away from PEB.

Dentie

09-05-2013, 03:18 PM

She's all over the place .... BUT .... looks like a perfect pennant forming which will be decided on ... in about 2 weeks by the look of it.

POSSUM THE CAT

09-05-2013, 04:18 PM

moosie 900 Have they run out of Bigger Fools

Dentie

09-05-2013, 05:12 PM

Are we living by the 5 pennant formation then with the first 3 already gone? I'm seeing a fast narrowing channel with plenty of pressure building...

I agree about the pressure Moosie, which is what a pennant is all about. I just live by the last one though as what is gone is gone. It's the false breakouts that get me going....

blobbles

10-05-2013, 03:37 PM

I just found this video on youtube about how the entire CxBladder process works. Pretty interesting but full of fairly high tech stuff! Not sure if this has been posted before or not.

Also, CxBladder has a facebook page which I signed up to here: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Cxbladder/144353678913026

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1kTA6HrNuJY

JohnnyTheHorse

10-05-2013, 06:42 PM

So much tension building. RSI on an upwards trend, pennant formed and 30 and 90 day moving averages coming close to crossing. Probably fair to assume that we are going to see some decent action (either up or down) in the next week or two? Although in saying that, this TA stuff doesn't affect the sales in the US ;)

4506

Sauce

10-05-2013, 09:14 PM

I notice that a lot of Pacific Edge investors agonise over the charts and the daily share price. My first purchase was with the IPO @ 25cents (10 years ago) and they basically drifted down for years, my best buys were at 9 and 11 cents six years later! If I could offer any advice I would say “spend the time in research” and forget the daily price. By that, I mean understand your investment, if you don’t understand the company or product, then you’re just a gambler, and become part of the wealth transfer equation.

Hancocks,

Thats the best advice I have seen on sharetrader in many years.

However, just one more thing to ponder; is it in your interest to point this out or not?

Balance

10-05-2013, 09:23 PM

Hancocks,

Thats the best advice I have seen on sharetrader in many years.

However, just one more thing to ponder; is it in your interest to point this out or not?

There are traders and there are investors.

Someone like Moosie does not pretend otherwise - he is a trader so daily price movements matter to him. I read his posts accordingly in that light.

Someone like Hancocks share very good research and information. I value his postings accordingly from that standpoint.

It is just very rich for some posters on this thread to come in whenever the sp takes a dip and write 'I told you so.' Sour grapes on a diseased vine if ever I read one!

Sauce

10-05-2013, 10:15 PM

Nope, not at all, there is nothing that could be posted here that will affect the share price, if thats what you think. I and others would gain however, if the thread was informative about the company and the technology, perhaps the focus has shifted slightly.
.

That's not quite what I meant. The point was, mostly, facetious.

if you want to beat the market, which implicitly means do better than average, without relying on blind luck, then you need an edge. The point was simply that, in general, you want the people on the other end of the trade to be playing charts.

Anyway I liked your post. It is the truth.

Dentie

11-05-2013, 05:49 AM

On a different note and I do apologise for this, but researching the above information I noted David B and DJAB had been banned?
DJAB was a bit OTT but added something (of sorts), but I always found David to be informative and passionate in his opinions. Why banned? I'm disappointed in that, surely we are not that precious or sensitive? Bring back David B please.

Interesting post Hancocks....maybe they are one and the same?????

kizame

11-05-2013, 02:53 PM

The way I do things and maybe lots of people whom call themselves traders,is look at the charts to get a good picture of what direction the stock is heading if any.
If it looks promising then mix in some fundamentals to back up the story(or the other way round if you like).
Everyone has their own way of making their buying and selling decisions,but I find charts invaluable,but not the be all that ends all,the same with fundamentals,balance it,whatever makes you comfortable.
This is a never ending learning curve for me,i will always make mistakes,it won't stop,i just need to minimise them,and their impact.

kizame

11-05-2013, 02:55 PM

AND the great thing about this forum is that it is so rich with experience and posters with all their different views.Neat to read.

skid

12-05-2013, 09:17 AM

I think there are actually a pretty good mix of the ''this share is overvalued'' and ''its all up from here''
Seems to be a mix of the 2 at this phase,consolidating at about where it is now.

Minerbarejet

14-05-2013, 08:52 AM

Blue horseshoe loves Pacific Edge...

Just thought I'd try and give the stock a bump ;):D:p

dont think its listed on Wall st and hasnt been around since 1987:cool:

Whipmoney

14-05-2013, 09:03 AM

Blue horseshoe loves Pacific Edge...

Just thought I'd try and give the stock a bump ;):D:p

I'm Ricky Bobby, if you don't like PEB then F**k You!

skid

14-05-2013, 09:31 AM

In other words -theres no news ATM

Minerbarejet

14-05-2013, 09:45 AM

what did you have for breakfast moosie- if it was mushrooms they were the wrong sort. you will give yourself bladder cancer and then you will need PEB even more

AndyLP

14-05-2013, 10:23 AM

In other words -theres no news ATM

haha hilarious!

Vince

14-05-2013, 04:36 PM

Folks, - it would be pleasant not to receive a complaint(s) aboutthis thread for a few days at least. Please keep comments on topic.

Thanks,
Vince

Balance

15-05-2013, 04:46 PM

Good question. I see a focused company with a decisive young leader at the helm. He has proven success in business with his previous company, Hyperfactory, and currently runs the B-Team with Richard Branson which not only makes a profit but also takes into account ethics while doing so. I like the fact that he is actively engaged in my sector (the Arts) with Booktrack and Boosted. He also went to both of my universities, Massey and Victoria Wellington.

On the business side, I can see massive untapped markets at home here in NZ, across the ditch in Oz and the Asian target markets. I see smartphones everywhere and the potential to reach every single one of those people with marketing campaigns that TV and radio cannot reach. The growth of the companies revenues last reported in the April quarterly only reaffirms this. I can also see already that SNK is going to be a superstar on the communications front in keeping shareholders informed of every last detail, keeping at the forefront of everyone's minds, shareholder or not.

As a younger person and part of the digital era, I believe there is a massive market here and that Handley is going to take it with both hands and go running at a very fast pace. I can see a bit of Rod Drury in him in that he has a vision and is willing to tell the market what it wants. I want to be in on this and it fits my risk profile to a T. If it doesn't work, then hey, I have plenty more life left to live to make up for it, but if it takes off, wow... ;)

I also see potential in PEB, and I may come back to it one day, but right now SNK is my elixir of choice. :)

Good on yuh, Moosie ... u are a gentleman and a scholar!

robbo24

15-05-2013, 06:31 PM

See you on NTL, XRO, DIL, MRP, HNZ and the other threads moosie.

In other news http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/04/29/national/takeda-loses-cancer-suit-over-actos-2/ there is 3000 class actions being taken against drug manufacturer Takeda. It seems the drug Actos caused mass bladder cancer.

Maybe I'll write to the legal counsel in these cases and ask them to request regular testing for future bladder cancers for the rest of the lives of all the plaintiffs.

Imagine the 1000s and 1000s of people who will get free bladder cancer testing, and the drug company/the company's insurer who will be wondering how to arrange such testing and pay for it all.

AndyLP

16-05-2013, 02:56 PM

Slam dunk

16-05-2013, 03:00 PM

Interesting announcement!

GENERAL: PEB: China Grants Patent for Detection of Gastric Cancer

16 May 2013

China grants Patent for Detection of Gastric Cancer

China, with one of the highest incidences of stomach (Gastric) cancer in the world, has granted Pacific Edge Limited (the Company) its patent, 'Detection of Gastric Cancer'. This patent defines technology that can be used for the diagnosis of gastric cancer.

The granting of the Company's patent in China is a further addition to the Company's suite of intellectual property that includes accurate tests for the diagnosis and prognosis of several hard to detect cancers including those of the bladder, alimentary tract, stomach and melanomas.

Full announcement gives some indication of how much of an issue gastric cancer is in China too.

"Gastric cancer is one of the most frequent cancers in the world only exceed by lung, breast and colorectal cancers. Almost two-thirds of gastric cancer cases and deaths occur in less developed regions, including East Asia and South America. In China, there are approximately 400,000 new cases of gastric cancer a year detected and 300,000 deaths."

blah

16-05-2013, 03:23 PM

In other words -theres no news ATM

Interesting announcement!

GENERAL: PEB: China Grants Patent for Detection of Gastric Cancer

16 May 2013

China grants Patent for Detection of Gastric Cancer

China, with one of the highest incidences of stomach (Gastric) cancer in the world, has granted Pacific Edge Limited (the Company) its patent, 'Detection of Gastric Cancer'. This patent defines technology that can be used for the diagnosis of gastric cancer.

The granting of the Company's patent in China is a further addition to the Company's suite of intellectual property that includes accurate tests for the diagnosis and prognosis of several hard to detect cancers including those of the bladder, alimentary tract, stomach and melanomas.

Finally some news!! Will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this in the next couple of days. I don't see much happening at the moment.

Banksie

16-05-2013, 03:33 PM

The day after I sell out! :crying::blink:

Just added a new indicator to my TA charts DMS (day moosie sells) ;)

hilskin

16-05-2013, 04:04 PM

And its moments like these that the price takes off....

Happy to hold. It will be a good couple of years coming for PEB.

Great call Sparky and thanks Moosie, you rock.

JohnnyTheHorse

16-05-2013, 04:06 PM

lol, you probably bought my parcel as well. I didn't do it willingly either; had to be in time for SNK SPP and yesterday was last day to sell.

Always the way isn't it? Ah well, hopefully SNK rewards you handsomely! Currently sitting on 66 cents, so maybe this was just the catalyst needed to get the SP moving again.

hilskin

16-05-2013, 04:08 PM

lol, I try my best. You can repay the debt by buying SNK off me when it hits $25 ;)

I hope you're right as I hold a few of SNK myself and then we can all be happy. Hope it all comes together for you.

hilskin

16-05-2013, 04:16 PM

Ah truly. Great minds think alike eh? And same for you matey!

Just let me know when you are selling SNK so I can buy some more :-)

blobbles

16-05-2013, 04:41 PM

Seems like another good announcement from PEB, but I don't see it affecting the market too much in the short term, just another indicator they are getting their ducks in a line.

We are after SALES SALES SALES data, until that comes through for CxBladder we are all left with our hearts in our mouths (or our wallets in our mouths, whichever is most appropriate!).

blobbles

16-05-2013, 04:45 PM

robbo24

16-05-2013, 05:50 PM

Just added a new indicator to my TA charts DMS (day moosie sells) ;)

Make a SNK TA chart as well - insert day moosie buys...

zs_cecil

16-05-2013, 05:56 PM

And China probably has one of the highest incidents of gastric cancer because:

1. The eat everything, especially people from Guandong province.
2. They eat food crazy spicy food (especially people from Sichuan/Yunnan)
3. Chinese people are the best in the world at killing Chinese people (food scandals everywhere).

I guess the high incident of gastric cancer could be due to the way people eat and drink as well as the food safety.

Many people from Guangdong province (southern China) probably eat a lot of food that we never had in NZ. But I think this does not really what causes the problem
The problem could be many people from Guangdong province (Maybe other part of China) have a habit of having food at late night before sleep.
And also the alcohol drinking culture in China(if you heard of) probably can be considered as the killer of liver and stomach.
I am not sure whether eating a lot of spicy food is a problem. But I heard that eating a lot of processed food like pickle would cause gastric problem.
One thing we cannot ignore is that most of Chinese people are working extremely hard. Pressure and irregular eating could cause the problem too
Food safety is also the most serious problem that is threatening people's health.

Maybe anyone who is a doctor in this forum can provide us some explanation about what gastric problem is and what causes it. ;):

robbo24

16-05-2013, 06:07 PM

Maybe anyone who is a doctor in this forum can provide us some explanation about what gastric problem is and what causes it. ;):

I'm no doctor but apparently the reefer reduces your risk of bladder cancer: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/05/11/study-claims-marijuana-tied-to-lower-bladder-cancer-risk/2153019/

GR8DAY

16-05-2013, 06:19 PM

I'm no doctor but apparently the reefer reduces your risk of bladder cancer: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/05/11/study-claims-marijuana-tied-to-lower-bladder-cancer-risk/2153019/

How dumb is that study.........and no reference to those clever ones amongst who choose to neither smoke cannibas nor tobacco...what a joke!!!

Toasty

16-05-2013, 08:56 PM

1. The eat everything, especially people from Guandong province.

Are people from the Guandong province especially tasty?

QOH

16-05-2013, 09:05 PM

Are people from the Guandong province especially tasty?
Ha you must be on the same wave length as me, the first time I read it that's the way I took it.
Was thinking gee that's not a very PC thing to say.

robbo24

16-05-2013, 09:14 PM

promotes the appearancs of huge flocks of pigeons when driving 38 times around a roundabout.

Moosies and clowns are enough for me (for now)

enzed staffy

17-05-2013, 08:52 AM

Gastric cancer has a number of recognised risk factors - namely H pylori infection - it is a direct carcicogen(increased in crowded living, shared utensils, etc).
Smoking.
intake of pickled and salted foods, soy sauce ( by way of interaction with h pylori and associated incease of carcinogenicity by nitrosated foods)
genetic factors (increased in some asian countries)
Most of the factors interact with h pylori and cause variable types of gastritis that then predipose to cancer

Dej

17-05-2013, 03:57 PM

Sure got hammered on this Friday afternoon!

Whipmoney

17-05-2013, 04:09 PM

Sure got hammered on this Friday afternoon!

She's holding, expecting it to breakout next week.

Dej

17-05-2013, 04:10 PM

She's holding, expecting it to breakout next week.

Which direction? ;)

blobbles

17-05-2013, 04:10 PM

It sure has! It fascinates me watching this company day to day because its in that "no mans land" price area where people can't quite quantify its future potential worth vs its risk of failure. Hence a good announcement yesterday swings the pendulum to "great future worth" to todays, "hang on a second, really risky...".

Whipmoney

17-05-2013, 04:13 PM

Up. The last two weeks have been a big shakeout and a lot of new buyers have entered in at between 60-65.

The news yesterday would have helped aswell.

Cows-with-guns

17-05-2013, 08:14 PM

Sure got hammered on this Friday afternoon!
That was partly my fault, sorry, I had to suck money out of something for Snakk SPP which is due Tuesday 5pm. Still have a good holding with PEB, just wanted to be part of the Snakk party.

Dentie

18-05-2013, 06:28 AM

Up. The last two weeks have been a big shakeout and a lot of new buyers have entered in at between 60-65.

The news yesterday would have helped aswell.

I agree whip. I don't think PEB got "hammered" at all .... there was nothing that happened for it to be hammered. More like it just suffered due to players "needing" their dosh for other things (a la Moosie and Cows etc). The larger price drops are evidence, as only very small volumes were taken out to satisfy those needs and in return for that liquidity they had to meet the buyers demands. It is the price one has to pay for leaving things til the last minute.

Thursday's finish price actually broke out of the pennant - but retreated back into it yesterday. I like the look of the big bullish candle followed by the hammer ..... IMHO, in one to two weeks time we'll see a confirmed breakout - hopefully northwards . The longer this takes, the more profound the breakout will be.

Cows-with-guns

18-05-2013, 06:34 AM

lol seems PEB is suffering due to an outflow of cash to SNK! you might be a bit late mate, brokers take t+3 business days to settle accounts nd all money needs to be in by Tuesday at 5pm...

All good, Ive sorted a temporary 15k overdraft extension for 1 day to take account of the t+3 day PEB transaction. I couldn't bring myself to do what the moose did on the same day and have the PEB SP depreciate even further, lucky for me they released the china news which helped somewhat.

Cows-with-guns

18-05-2013, 06:42 AM

Thursday's finish price actually broke out of the pennant - but retreated back into it yesterday. I like the look of the big bullish candle followed by the hammer ..... IMHO, in one to two weeks time we'll see a confirmed breakout - hopefully northwards . The longer this takes, the more profound the breakout will be.

I see historically they generally release their Peliminary Full Year Disclosure report on the 27/28th of May???

Dentie

18-05-2013, 07:34 AM

I see historically they generally release their Peliminary Full Year Disclosure report on the 27/28th of May???

Yeah, those timings would be consistent with the imminent breakout then...

barney

19-05-2013, 08:59 AM

A bit of interesting history.

http://www.otago.ac.nz/hekitenga/features/otago044741.html

Minerbarejet

19-05-2013, 01:13 PM

Bit of a shame that the news was released on Thursday as it seemed to get smothered by the Budget circus. Didnt see much about it on Stuff or Yahoo news but may have missed it. Not like the last announcement where it actually made TV.
Getting enough rain now! :)

JohnnyTheHorse

19-05-2013, 10:15 PM

Got bored so decided to take a look at what the charts were saying (again). By the looks of things there is a symmetrical triangle pattern that has formed. From what I have read, it is roughly at the spot where it should break out. If the pattern continues much longer then it gets weaker and the chance of a true breakout is much reduced. If I were a trader I would be looking for a close of 66-67 on good volume, with good buyer depth behind (the previous attempts at runs never had good depth behind). If this does occur, then the target price would be around 85 cents.

Disc: I am by no means a chartist (I'm a FA investor, although use TA to identify buy and sell points), just enjoy looking at the trends and seeing how they pan out. Oh, I also hold a large chink of PEB :)

4527

Huskeez

19-05-2013, 10:29 PM

Got bored so decided to take a look at what the charts were saying (again). By the looks of things there is a symmetrical triangle pattern that has formed. From what I have read, it is roughly at the spot where it should break out. If the pattern continues much longer then it gets weaker and the chance of a true breakout is much reduced. If I were a trader I would be looking for a close of 66-67 on good volume, with good buyer depth behind (the previous attempts at runs never had good depth behind). If this does occur, then the target price would be around 85 cents.Disc: I am by no means a chartist (I'm a FA investor, although use TA to identify buy and sell points), just enjoy looking at the trends and seeing how they pan out. Oh, I also hold a large chink of PEB :)4527NIIIIIICE mate heres my plan.....Until then ... its another stock on my watchlist

Balance

20-05-2013, 09:36 AM

A bit of interesting history.

http://www.otago.ac.nz/hekitenga/features/otago044741.html

A few observations :

1. A methodical approach towards developing the tests - not a flash in the pan, Johnny come lately idea.

2. A range of products - one all go, the others in various stages of development and launch.

3. Don't expect any sales of CxBladder in US to 31 March 2013 - focus is on launching the product properly and effectively in the States.

Balance

20-05-2013, 09:51 AM

I would like to know how much, if any, the University of Otago is making from this deal?

I sure hope heaps.

They have an equity stake in PEB.

Balance

20-05-2013, 10:10 AM

May put Otago back at the top of the University heap in NZ again.

Watched a show yesterday with someone claiming Universities in NZ are underfunded. Pull another one and hand me a Tui at the same time! The amount of money I gave them to get my education (and I know my sister paid quadruple what I did as she was still a 'foreigner' at the time she studied) was ridiculous, and it only gets worse ever year!

Unfortunately it is true.

Our professors in NZ are woefully underpaid and most do their jobs out of love, rather than pay. I personally know of one professor in Auckland University in Medicine who could make 10 times if he accepted an offer from one of the Ivy League universities. He declined and there are many who shook their heads but have no understanding of what really drives some of these individuals.

Meanwhile, the Harvard's and Oxford's of this world enjoy billions in endowments.

In contrast, those who make it rich in NZ through the marginalization of others (notably the Fay Richwhites of the world) not only take their loot overseas, they come back for their tenth helpings! Not for them the greater aspirations of furthering the interests of future New Zealanders through generous endowments to our universities.

My rave for the day.

blobbles

20-05-2013, 11:34 AM

I plus 10 that. The rich bastards who do nothing to support NZ educational institutions after making millions because of them need a good kick up the ass.

tosspot

21-05-2013, 02:50 PM

so the annual results I cant seem to find a specific date, just roughly end of this week or next Monday. Is there a set in stone date for the result

AndyLP

21-05-2013, 04:40 PM

I couldn't find one either mate, I wouldn't expect too much from it when it comes though. And I'm fine with that, even though PEB is my biggest holding after Ryman. Have bought in 4 times over the last year or so, mostly well under the current price except for once instance where I got caught up with the CLIA hype at 75c :)

Roadrunner

21-05-2013, 08:10 PM

so the annual results I cant seem to find a specific date, just roughly end of this week or next Monday. Is there a set in stone date for the result

On looking back over the last few years PEB have announced on the last Friday of the month.If this is the case this time round then Friday 31st May would be quite likely.....

Really impressed with everything I`ve read and heard about this company.Yes,the share price is a bit volatile...to say the least!! but that will settle down once they get some runs on the board.I remember when I bought into DIL at around the same price and they were a bit hit and miss too,sometimes not even trading.Confident that all being well they will be double this SP in 12 months :)

Slam dunk

22-05-2013, 02:02 PM

22-05-2013, 02:30 PM

Just saw the NZX notice that the PEB AGM is on 22 Aug so I rang Pacific Edge in Dunedin and asked when we could expect end of year reporting and was told end of June (not sure who I was talking to - just the person who answered the phone). I asked if we'd receive any update on progress in the US before then and she said "we can't give indications like that to individuals, you'll just have to watch for releases to the market through NZX" (Slam dunk is not trying to suggest there will be any).She's well trained. You should ask for the tea lady next time.

Dentie

22-05-2013, 02:33 PM

Just saw the NZX notice that the PEB AGM is on 22 Aug so I rang Pacific Edge in Dunedin and asked when we could expect end of year reporting and was told end of June (not sure who I was talking to - just the person who answered the phone). I asked if we'd receive any update on progress in the US before then and she said "we can't give indications like that to individuals, you'll just have to watch for releases to the market through NZX" (Slam dunk is not trying to suggest there will be any).

No, but presumably the "big boys upstairs" will know about what's happening in the US. The rest of us will have to wait and/or assume. Very sad about the Tornado's over there but let's hope the PEB tornado will whip up an investment storm....

Snow Leopard

22-05-2013, 03:38 PM

... so I rang Pacific Edge in Dunedin and asked when we could expect end of year reporting and was told end of June ...

PEB End of Financial Year is 31st March so they will have to release their Preliminary End of Year figures by 30th May.

The pretty report with all pictures of the directors in it will be end of June.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Slam dunk

22-05-2013, 05:21 PM

PEB End of Financial Year is 31st March so they will have to release their Preliminary End of Year figures by 30th May.

The pretty report with all pictures of the directors in it will be end of June.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks for clarifying PT. Round of appaws :)

skid

23-05-2013, 10:10 AM

Just to keep things in perspective--Ive no idea if it would work for bladder cancer though..
http://www.bradaronson.com/jack-andraka/

Minerbarejet

23-05-2013, 10:38 AM

from this we can assume they have accounts to send - must be all go. he said - hopefully

23-05-2013, 10:43 AM

3. They have not launched the product for sale yet, at least not in earnest.My take from this is they must have accounts to be managed. They already had one guy on the ground over there drumming up sales didn't they?

GR8DAY

23-05-2013, 10:49 AM

pe have appointed a national accounts manager for usa

michael maltby has joined pacific edge diagnostics usa (pedusa) as the new director of national accounts and payer relations.

Pacific edge diagnostics usa, chief executive officer jackie walker says michael has over 15 years experience in diagnostics, pharmaceutical, and medical device sales and national accounts management with a great track record of success.

Michael was most recently with sequenom center for molecular medicine and prior to that spent 12 years with prometheus laboratories until it was sold to nestle health science. Michael has been instrumental in launching an array of molecular diagnostic and therapeutic products.

......great catch, perfect credentials......things still moving along nicely. Good (quality) things take time.

Minerbarejet

23-05-2013, 11:13 AM

market seems underwhelmed so far.:)

23-05-2013, 11:15 AM

My take from this is they must have accounts to be managed. They already had one guy on the ground over there drumming up sales didn't they?My mistake : that was a non executive director. I assume they have had staff on the ground selling since they gained their certification in March.

Tumek

23-05-2013, 05:56 PM

Saw this on TV a couple of nights ago, certainly made me nervous! I see that it was announced back in Feb. Went thru the posts for feb but couldn't find any comment. Fantastic accomplishment really!

Minerbarejet

23-05-2013, 06:27 PM

Saw this on TV a couple of nights ago, certainly made me nervous! I see that it was announced back in Feb. Went thru the posts for feb but couldn't find any comment. Fantastic accomplishment really!
Congrats on the first post. Welcome to one of the best forums on shares. Certainly a lot of experience, good humour and advice about. As a matter of interest do you have a link to what you are referring to ?

barney

23-05-2013, 08:48 PM

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/michael-maltby/6/201/33a

Certainly seems to have a good track record in the right field.

A think Pacific Edge are recruiting some very experienced and talented people in the right fields. It might cost a bit more but it's not a thing you want to do half hearted. Employ the best people you can and give the company the best shot possible in the US market.

Tumek

23-05-2013, 08:56 PM

Just to keep things in perspective--Ive no idea if it would work for bladder cancer though..
http://www.bradaronson.com/jack-andraka/

Cheers, this is quote. Not quite up with the play !

Minerbarejet

23-05-2013, 08:59 PM

Thanks Tumek - thought that was probably it.

Tumek

23-05-2013, 09:16 PM

Thanks Tumek - thought that was probably it.

Has there been any discussion about wether this type of testing could be applicable to Urinary/gastric etc?

skid

25-05-2013, 09:43 AM

So---the big question of course is would this technique work for a bladder cancer test

Heffner

27-05-2013, 08:23 AM

Morning ST Crew,

Did anyone catch the story this morning on Firstline (3 News) about the new 'ground breaking' Bladder detection test that has been developed in the UK? I didn't catch the Company name but was wondering if anyone knew anymore on this?

It sounded very similar to what Pacific Edge has put together, however costs around a sixth of the price and from what I saw a couple of GP's in the UK were backing it.

A bit disappointing that a story like this makes it to the main headlines in NZ when we have our own homegrown company already much further through the process and not receiving the same kind of mainstream air time.

I did catch the end where they said it was still undergoing tests and was two years at least away from public use. However a tad disconcerning.

27-05-2013, 08:56 AM

Heffner

27-05-2013, 09:02 AM

Thanks you sir, that is indeed the story on Firstline this morning - checking the TV3 News website for the story was obviously not the right move.

Dej

27-05-2013, 09:11 AM

Heffner - a quick google suggests this could be the product: http://news.sky.com/story/1095367/new-test-for-bladder-cancer-may-save-lives

Still over 2 years away and more testing to be done. Will it be as accurate as PEB??

It says it uses an EN-2 gene to classify bladder cancer, yet as far as I can see EN-2 is a key indicator of prostate cancer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EN2_(gene)

As far as I am aware prostate cancer and bladder cancer are very different and unrelated. From last year this article was released with something simular;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8354882/Urine-test-for-prostate-cancer-in-18-months.html

But this trial was only 66% successful.

Not saying they are incorrect, just showing my thoughts and research. As far as I can see, it is a very new and novel technology, so would be suprised if it even got to market in 2 years.

27-05-2013, 09:28 AM

A dipstick test will never be as comprehensive as PEB's analysis. For a pregnacy, it doesn't matter if you are wrong as you will find out withing a few weeks anyway if you are wrong. I wouldn't take that risk for cancer. Having said that, $10 is a lot cheaper than $1000 so maybe it could be used to supplement high risk. Dipstick every month with PEB every year?

PEB is ready to sell now, is very accurate. Hopefully they are selling in the US as we speak - which would be impressive since it is Sunday night ;)

Dej

27-05-2013, 09:29 AM

Heffner - a quick google suggests this could be the product: http://news.sky.com/story/1095367/new-test-for-bladder-cancer-may-save-lives

Still over 2 years away and more testing to be done. Will it be as accurate as PEB??

" In patients with NMIBC, urinary EN2 was detected in most cases with an overall sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 75%. The sensitivity for stage Ta and T1 tumours was 71% and 76%, respectively, and 94% for stage T2+ tumours. This compares favourably with existing markers. The sensitivity for tumour grades 1, 2 and 3 was 69%, 78% and 87%, respectively. Thus urinary EN2 has the potential to be a more sensitive and specific protein biomarker for NMIBC than currently available tests."

From the paper in Eurpoean Journal of Cancer.

Also reading through the rest of the paper, they are the same team that did the initial study on EN2 with prostate cancer. In the discussion they talk about how difficulties could arise when trying to distinguish between wether a patient has bladder or prostate cancer.

Compare this to CxBladder;

"Detected 100% of T1, T2, T3, and Tis tumours
Detected 100% of upper tract tumours
Detected 97% of high-grade tumours
Distinguished between low grade Ta tumours and other detected urothelial carcinomas with a sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 90%
"

Dentie

27-05-2013, 09:48 AM

" In patients with NMIBC, urinary EN2 was detected in most cases with an overall sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 75%. The sensitivity for stage Ta and T1 tumours was 71% and 76%, respectively, and 94% for stage T2+ tumours. This compares favourably with existing markers. The sensitivity for tumour grades 1, 2 and 3 was 69%, 78% and 87%, respectively. Thus urinary EN2 has the potential to be a more sensitive and specific protein biomarker for NMIBC than currently available tests."

From the paper in Eurpoean Journal of Cancer.

Also reading through the rest of the paper, they are the same team that did the initial study on EN2 with prostate cancer. In the discussion they talk about how difficulties could arise when trying to distinguish between wether a patient has bladder or prostate cancer.

Compare this to CxBladder;

"Detected 100% of T1, T2, T3, and Tis tumours
Detected 100% of upper tract tumours
Detected 97% of high-grade tumours
Distinguished between low grade Ta tumours and other detected urothelial carcinomas with a sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 90%
"

It's interesting they didn't mention - or do a comparative analysis with - PEB.

We'll all be experts in this technical jargon by the time we're finished...

Dej

27-05-2013, 10:16 AM

But yeah I think the jist is, you pay for quality, like with anything in life.

skid

27-05-2013, 10:28 AM

27-05-2013, 10:35 AM

We are starting to get into some interesting ethical grounds here.
Do we hope no one comes up with a better test or even a cure?
I remember having this debate with someone involving large pharmaceutical co.sI am conflicted for different reasons that you would think - I would be happy to lose my investment if a cure for cancer was found, but that is a double edged sword - Life expectancy would increase, superannunation costs would sky rocket and quality of life as you get older (say over 90) is pretty terrible.

skid

27-05-2013, 11:05 AM

Im not making any judgements--just food for thought

Early detection of bladder cancer probably already contributes to those things you mention,if those are an issue.

I just brought it up because some bright spark potentially coming up with a better test or cure does perhaps raise the issue which no one really had to consider before.

Minerbarejet

27-05-2013, 11:13 AM

For those of you who are feeling a bit threatened by some other tests infringing on the outcome of PEB may I refer you to post #679 from Johnny the Horse. We are not talking about taking over the whole industry. Even at 5% penetration of the American Market the figures really are outstanding. Add in everywhere else at a mere 2%
and you would have a tidy sum indeed. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that even at those rates there are a lot of patients out there. The question remains as to whether PEB has the best and most accurate test - if it has then lookout- even if its second or third there is still a huge market to participate in. If a 100 % detection rate is obtained then it becomes a bit hard to improve on that.
Cheers :)
edited to reflect true number for reference

Dej

27-05-2013, 01:43 PM

When others are fearful, buy buy buy!

This stock must be a good trading stock for you atm aye moosie :p

JohnnyTheHorse

27-05-2013, 01:58 PM

If the symmetrical triangle pattern is to be believed (and I'm not saying that it should) then this should go no lower than 59. Maybe one last lower support test before a breakout?

croesus

28-05-2013, 07:43 AM

Have rejumped on to the train, have my doubts about your symmetrical triangle ( one good news, or bad news .. will blow all that quasi intellectual charting, guess work out of the water ).. but happy to wait for the report.

JohnnyTheHorse

28-05-2013, 07:58 AM

tosspot

28-05-2013, 09:01 AM

so im under the impression they have to release a report by the end of this week. am I correct

AndyLP

28-05-2013, 09:39 AM

Morning team! Wondering what people are hoping for / expecting to see in the report? What would people consider "bad news" or for that matter "good news"?

MAC

28-05-2013, 09:48 AM

Affirmation of numerical guidance which I understand to be FY14 revenue USD5.0M, FY14 gross margin USD4.1M. This along with schedule confirmation of their US lab build, staff training, and ramp up, sales team roll out, I believe may cement a primary trend that may well remain in place for some time.

skid

28-05-2013, 09:59 AM

I would guess at this stage it would be more''getting the ducks in a row''rather than much in the way of sales figures.
[We still haven't heard a peep from Australian sales]
I would think it would be gradual market penetration.
If,however ,they won a contract with someone ,then it would be far more explosive.

Dej

28-05-2013, 02:42 PM

Up! Down.... Up! Down...

tosspot

28-05-2013, 04:09 PM

Traders paradise ;)

Just wait for the news, will determine the next up or down trendline for a few months.
I wish they would hurry up with it. losing sleep over this stock lol

JohnnyTheHorse

28-05-2013, 04:40 PM

Back at levels where I start to consider possibly buying more... Hmm, what to do.

Dej

28-05-2013, 04:42 PM

Back at levels where I start to consider possibly buying more... Hmm, what to do.

What ever your wallet allows you too :p

JohnnyTheHorse

28-05-2013, 04:44 PM

What ever your wallet allows you too :p

The wallet says do it, but my mind is telling me to stay disciplined as I probably don't need even more!

Dentie

28-05-2013, 04:59 PM

I wish they would hurry up with it. losing sleep over this stock lol

Judging by the drop today and the large parcels jettisoning, sounds like the news maybe out .... to some perhaps...

Dentie

28-05-2013, 05:01 PM

If you're losing sleep over it then you should bail out at next chance, keep your money in a safer investment and get a good nights sleep, much more important!

Exactly - well said moose

Minerbarejet

28-05-2013, 05:08 PM

patience people, lets not forget they are probably only reporting UP TO march. didnt get the go ahead until then anyway. Next one will be a whole lot more interesting .
Cheers :)

JohnnyTheHorse

28-05-2013, 05:13 PM

Some people are expecting big revenue announcements. Ain't going to happen for a while yet. But when it does.....

Disc: happy holder

Exactly. The prelim annual report isn't really going to tell us much at all. The only share price moving thing may be a meaningful update on what's happening in the US.

Dentie

28-05-2013, 05:34 PM

I'm also happy to disclose I'm a "happy holder" too Sparky. Been in for about 3 years so am in no hurry and believe the long term payoff for patience will be worth it. I'll only get a bit nervy if the SP drops below about 24c.

MAC

28-05-2013, 10:08 PM

I've today blown the dust off the July 2011 capital raising presentation to gauge how PEB have been tracking,

- CLIA Licence was to be achieved between November 2012 and January 2013
- Launch of tests in the proposed Pennsylvania Lab was scheduled for March 2013
- First year (FY14) numerical guidance was provided. Rev US$5M & gross margin US4.1M

From announcements we already have it would seem that PEB management have largely satisfied their objectives thus far, not an easy task in consideration that their schedule has being to an extent at the mercy of US regulators, hats off to them I say, they've done well !.

The market has had a smudge under two years now to consolidate this guidance and schedule.

It would seem totally peculiar to me if some folk would have somehow imagined that any revenues could be raised prior to PEB actually opening their primary business laboratory when planned.

I'm hoping we do see an irrational SP dip, perfect opportunity to top up, I'll be in.

Dentie

29-05-2013, 08:43 AM

For many years now Pacific Edge has worked closely with their urological colleagues in Australia and obviously New Zealand. They have displayed at and given promotional presentations at the USANZ (Urological society of Australia & New Zealand). The product has been marketed by Healthscope for less than a year (let’s say 8 months).

In previous annual reports, a selling point is that there is a high volume of tests required for monitoring bladder cancer, approximately 4 or 5 for each newly diagnosed patient in the first year, there are also the diagnostic test volumes; therefore I expect to see some degree of uptake in the revenue part of the annual report.

Example:

Australasia = 300 urologists and because of the relationship over the years with those urologists – uptake »8% first year = »24.

Number of weeks marketing and undertaking the tests (8 months about 32wks)

Number of tests per week (pluck a figure) = »6

Total 24 x 32 x 6 = 4608

Cost of test $AU250 x 4608 = $1,152,000 (hopefull at least that)

Obviously the figures are hypothetical, but if in the report we haven’t got even got to half of that, then ....................................

Hancocks, all the evidence on the diagnostic capability of CX Bladder and the size of the markets and the generally accepted notion by those that matter that CX Bladder is the best thing for patients (compared to the existing alternatives), I can't see why there wouldn't be a significant utilisation of this test - ie - sales. I mean, who wouldn't use CX Bladder and why? Who wouldn't pick up a $100 note that they stumbled upon????

skid

29-05-2013, 09:46 AM

In a perfect world that would be true,but there are alot of variables we probably couldnt begin to fathom.
Still,you have got to do the best with in info that you have,but keep a level head at the same time.
The irony is that the SP could suffer even with fabulous news if the outside share market takes a big hit.
Stay positive but keep the feet on the ground and always be on the lookout for potential flaws as well as the good achievements.IMHO
As a matter of interest,apparently Bill Gates makes so much money per Hr that he would actually lose money by taking the time to bend down and pick up a $100 note[especially a $NZ note]LOL

29-05-2013, 09:52 AM

As a matter of interest,apparently Bill Gates makes so much money per Hr that he would actually lose money by taking the time to bend down and pick up a $100 note[especially a $NZ note]LOLI dont think he is actively involved in making that money anymore so that statement probably isn't true. However, It is great to see him spending money on worthwhile causes.

skid

29-05-2013, 09:54 AM

I dont think he is actively involved in making that money anymore so that statement probably isn't true. However, It is great to see him spending money on worthwhile causes.

It would be a hard habit to break--LOL

Minerbarejet

29-05-2013, 10:28 AM

The market likes to be irrational when it is exuberant. I watched ARNA and VVUS launched into the stratosphere last year when it was announced they were getting into a multi-billion dollar industry. After a few less-than-amazing (downright bad actually!) reports, now look where they are. Biotech is a cruel mistress and can reward and punish as fast and as many times as she likes.
If PEB ever got to the level of ARNA at 9.00us or VVUS at 15.00us I would for one be a very happy chappie. Looking back a bit you can see that they have been around a while (1998, 2001) and the initial hughforia saw them both go to 40.00us. Suspect I may have cashed in by then if PEB did that, after all a couple of million could be quite handy. :)

Joshuatree

29-05-2013, 10:43 AM

Sold Arna today for a small profit. PEB (in the red still) and NEU (re even)on ASX my stocks in this sector now; considering placing half of NEU into CZD. NEU conceived by Auck University.

JohnnyTheHorse

29-05-2013, 02:57 PM

Certainly some selling pressure from at least two big sellers today. Will be interesting to see where this goes.

Minerbarejet

29-05-2013, 03:26 PM

hey johnny did you get the message I sent you re PEB?

JohnnyTheHorse

29-05-2013, 05:51 PM

Well if I'm not mistaken, the Prelim report must released tomorrow based on the NZX rules. At worst, we get no update on what's happening in the US and sales in Aus and NZ are as expected. At best, we get a good update on the US (deals made etc) and sales in NZ and Aus are well above what was expected.

Either way, will probably keep the rollercoaster going on it's wild ride.

Tumek

30-05-2013, 10:49 AM

Exactly. The prelim annual report isn't really going to tell us much at all. The only share price moving thing may be a meaningful update on what's happening in the US.
Surely, uptake and use of test in Aus/NZ would give everyone some confidence

Dej

30-05-2013, 11:30 AM

NICE!!
MidCentral District Health Board, based in Palmerston North, is set to become the first district health board in New Zealand to become a commercial customer for Pacific Edge's diagnostic cancer test Cxbladder. MidCentral will be looking to provide patients with a better clinical outcome as well as make considerable savings and efficiencies from its use.

Beginning in June, MidCentral DHB will begin evaluating 400 patients over a 24-month period to determine the clinical utility of Cxbladder to prioritise at-risk patients, and establish the level of savings that can be achieved from screening out patients who do not need a full and expensive urological work up for bladder cancer. Typically less than five percent of those patients who present to their clinician with micro-haematuria (non-visible blood in urine of clinical significance) will be diagnosed with bladder cancer.

One of many to come is all we can hope for :t_up:

Tumek

30-05-2013, 11:39 AM

I think its a bullish expectation that uptake will have occurred already. Many of their sales paths take a LONG time. Although I love what PEB are going to do, they are still very much upscaling their commercialisation. I doubt we'll see much revenue at all in their trailing twelve months.
Hasn't it been available for over 2 years in Aus/NZ?

skid

30-05-2013, 11:41 AM

Any one have any clues on what this means in terms of Australia?I thought we might get a bit of news on how things were going there.
Obviously no health boards on board yet but what about other sales?

barney

30-05-2013, 11:43 AM

Obviously DHB's and hospitals are trying to make savings where ever they can given the constraints on government spending. But this is not confined to NZ. US health providers and insurers will also be doing the same.

Tumek

30-05-2013, 11:44 AM

MAC

30-05-2013, 11:45 AM

Fantastic announcement this morning, cements health professional belief in the product, should provide some confidence to the market that PEB guidance for US sales is achievable.

JohnnyTheHorse

30-05-2013, 11:52 AM

Great news. Lots of the sellers have now disappeared. Still a prelim annual report to come today :)

blobbles

30-05-2013, 11:56 AM

That was exactly the announcement I was looking for. Partnering with a hospital as a full trial run of their test and testing facilities. If their product is as good as it appears, I expect others to follow suit.

I suspect other hospitals will be watching with baited breath...

blobbles

30-05-2013, 11:58 AM

Oh yes, plus I like the bit "Discussions are under way with another DHB..."

30-05-2013, 12:27 PM

This is the bit I liked:

Cxbladder, the first commercial diagnostic cancer test launched by Pacific Edge, has gained recognition for its accuracy from leading urology practices in Australia, New Zealand and the United States.

"Clinicians in all three countries are using Cxbladder as a quick, cost effective and accurate measure to identify those patients presenting with haematuria who have tumours requiring further treatment

Tumek

30-05-2013, 12:28 PM

Great news. Lots of the sellers have now disappeared. Still a prelim annual report to come today :)
Hope the news isn't to buffer what's in prelim

Snow Leopard

30-05-2013, 01:39 PM

You have to hope that the benefits of CxBladder become incredibly obvious pretty promptly otherwise this DHB is going to spend two years gathering data and then sitting down to write a report for discussion at the next board meeting about whether it is worth adopting it long term.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*"little by little, over time the mountain is climbed" (not literal)

GR8DAY

30-05-2013, 01:41 PM

Dentie

30-05-2013, 01:45 PM

......PERSONALLY I PLACE THIS EXCITING NEWS WAY AHEAD OF THE OPENING OF THE US CLINIC. BASICALLY WHAT WE HAVE NOW IS GOVERNMENT ENDORSEMENT OF CX BLADDER.AND WHAT THIS WILL NOW DO FOR THE COMMERCIALIZATION OF THE PRODUCT (both here AND off-shore) CANNOT BE MEASURED. WHEN (not IF) RESULTS FLOW THROUGH (we all know those results) I would expect every DHB will be obliged (as a cost saving exercise) to climb on board. The cost savings will be so large they might be able to re-start full meals for all over-night patients!!

I agree! It is not about how long the Govt organisation is going to take to move (all Govt Dept's are slothful in their productivity & timing), it is about getting recognised and backed by the Govt which is the key at this juncture.

Tumek

30-05-2013, 01:55 PM

Hasn't it been available for over 2 years in Aus/NZ?

2012 Anual Report : In relation to work being done in Aus,NZ,Spain,and USA

"This could reasonably be expected to flow on to adoption and revenue generation beginning in the coming financial year ending 31 March 2013"

hilskin

30-05-2013, 02:54 PM

report is out

hilskin

30-05-2013, 02:55 PM

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/236869

AndyLP

30-05-2013, 03:08 PM

Its fairly unexciting. The biggest news was earlier in the day I would have thought.

Snow Leopard

30-05-2013, 03:09 PM

Excellent result !

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

blah

30-05-2013, 03:13 PM

Excellent result !

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

"Other Revenue" down 26% - whatever other revenue constitutes.

robbo24

30-05-2013, 03:15 PM

Sales this year have been steady but small in number and are expected to increase steadily off the back of these 'user-programs' during the coming year.

Small sales will hopefully translate into big sales with the new marketing and partnership drives going on around the place. Onwards and upwards.

Snow Leopard

30-05-2013, 03:21 PM

"Other Revenue" down 26% - whatever other revenue constitutes.

Interest on cash, did you not read the entire accounts?
[Cash down from $17M959 to $10M676 over the year.]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Snow Leopard

30-05-2013, 03:38 PM

I think you forgot to add the "neh neh ne neh neh, I'm smarter than you" bit at the end of that post Tiger ;)

That is implied by the Tiger part of my name :)

I was alluding to the fact there are only five pages to the accounts, minimal indeed.

But seriously my apologies to blah if I have offended him/her.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

barney

30-05-2013, 03:45 PM

Not sure what people were expecting sales to be, but a $6,949,878 loss compared to a budgeted loss of $7,148,661 would indicate they are progressing as planned.

30-05-2013, 03:55 PM

Interest on cash, did you not read the entire accounts?Since I got told of yesterday for not reading a 3 paragraph announcement I feel bad in bringing this up but:

Current year other revenue all relates to interest on cash.

However, interest on cash in the prior year is only $342 so there must be something else in 'other' to make it up to $449k

Am I missing something?

Snow Leopard

30-05-2013, 04:10 PM

Since I got told of yesterday for not reading a 3 paragraph announcement I feel bad in bringing this up but:

Current year other revenue all relates to interest on cash.

However, interest on cash in the prior year is only $342 so there must be something else in 'other' to make it up to $449k

Am I missing something?

2012 Other Revenue:
Interest: $341k8
Grant: $106k7

2012 Trading Revenue:
Cxbladder Sales: $9k6
Licence Fees: $163k5
Other: $24k9

So as you can see the minimal accounts as issued today hide a lot of detail which you will thus have to wait for the final report to discover.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

30-05-2013, 04:14 PM

Grant: $106M7I did guess it was grant income (should have typed it in).

A bit disappointing that trading revenue is not up but overall, they seem to be on track.

Tumek

30-05-2013, 04:17 PM

Not sure what people were expecting sales to be, but a $6,949,878 loss compared to a budgeted loss of $7,148,661 would indicate they are progressing as planned.

I was expecting sales to be increasing !

Dentie

30-05-2013, 04:29 PM

I was expecting sales to be increasing !

So must have others ... starting to sell down now ...probably off to put their dosh into one of the other annual & projected loss makers...XRO.

zs_cecil

30-05-2013, 04:37 PM

It seems that the demand of this kind of products all over the world is led by the government. The adoption of new technologies is regulated by the government. The local market is strongly coordinated by the government. Cracking the government wall is indeed not so easy as cracking a peanut shell. The patients need to be patient. The shareholders need to be patient.

Dej

30-05-2013, 04:47 PM

Patience is a virtue. Now that the expected miracle of fast selling that was priced into PEB is dashed, any dips should be bought for the long-term run up in selling. This will probably be one of the last chances to get PEB cheaply before that selling starts happening and losses turn into profits in the coming years.

Buy low, sell high!

Surely theres going to be some retraction in price over the coming weeks, since that infamous 60c barrier has been broken. Need some more good news to see it change IMHO

Tumek

30-05-2013, 04:51 PM

So must have others ... starting to sell down now ...probably off to put their dosh into one of the other annual & projected loss makers...XRO.
A bit naive really, considering downward pressure leading up to announcement. Have to love timing of Dhb announcement

Xerof

30-05-2013, 04:56 PM

Masfen knew what he was doing....

I can't believe the lack of revenue, are they giving them away?

can anyone point me to decent data on forecast sales numbers, price, and net per unit return to PEB?

MAC

30-05-2013, 05:02 PM

Very pleased to see PEB management on schedule against commitments made two years ago, this says a lot about the quality of their team to me. But they certainly seem to be stressing some by not having runs on the board, not that we should have expected any yet.

The potential of this stock remains enormous providing significant technology risk doesn't come into play. Running some numbers this afternoon I could easily see this as a $5 stock at FY16, provided PEB can meet guidance provided in there 2011 capital raising documentation.

Dej, perhaps we will see some further short term volatility as a lot is being taken on trust at present, but I largely agree with moosie, the SP won't be at these levels for long.

Tumek

30-05-2013, 05:21 PM

5:17pm, 29 Nov 2011 | HALFYR

Steady progress is being made in the market place with the uptake of the Cxbladder by clinicians and the company is working with the Canterbury District Health Board, CDHB, to get Cxbladder recognised as part of the clinical guidelines. Completion of a successful outcome with CDHB could reasonably be expected see Cxbladder readily available to urologists and approximately 400 general practitioners, (GP's) in the Canterbury region as part of the District Health Boards clinical process.

Would like to know how this is going?

Whipmoney

30-05-2013, 05:43 PM

JohnnyTheHorse

30-05-2013, 06:20 PM

I found it interesting that they specifically stated that management still expects the 200,000 tests per annum to be reached by the end of the 5th year. They have been on the ground drumming up sales for a while now, so they probably have at least some indication as to how it's going to go. I don't think they would specifically say this if they now realised that it was unrealistic.

Snow Leopard

30-05-2013, 06:42 PM

I regret headlining the drop in year on year Trading Revenue now, seems to have made one or people a bit nervous.

Last year was made up of:
Cxbladder Sales: $9k6
Licence Fees: $163k5
Other: $24k9
for a total of $198k

This year is down all of $16k and you do not know the breakdown (of course it would help if PEB gave a bit more detail).

But strip out the other, assume licence fees are a one-off and maybe this year is direct sales and royalty payments from licence holders and you may have good growth in sales.

As for 200,000 tests in 5 years time, it is far too early to know that the target can or can not be achieved, you will just have to watch the reports as they come out.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

blobbles

30-05-2013, 07:56 PM

Ha haa, I aren't nervous ...

I think the past year all concentration has been on getting the US lab up and away with the right staff in place to drive the product over there. Now that they have the staff in the US (and are handing off the growth drive to them), they can refocus into driving growth in home markets. Makes sense to me.

The BIG indicator of course will be at the end of this year. If sales are floundering at that stage, they better have some good reasons for it or the SP will be heading back south of 30c.

But my money is on their success and 200k tests per year in 5 years looks easy to me considering the number of tests conducted worldwide and the excellence of their product.

MAC

30-05-2013, 08:30 PM

Xerof, the forward five years sales guidance is per link below, pages 27 & 28. Hope you’re sitting down if you haven’t seen these before.

PEB didn't provide FY13 guidance, I took this to mean we wouldn't have much if any. Any present sales data seems to be just noise given the big picture for this company.

enjoy & regards,
Mac

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/images/News/Uploaded%20files/Investor_Presentation.pdf

JohnnyTheHorse

30-05-2013, 09:05 PM

Well it would appear CxBladder's main rival, Predictive Bioscience's Certndx, has just gone under.

The decision by a CMS contractor to deny coverage for bladder cancer diagnostics fromPredictive Biosciences Inc. (http://www.biocentury.com/companies/predictive_biosciences_inc) (Lexington, Mass.) has caused the molecular diagnostic company to close its doors and lay off its 91 employees, CEO Pierre Cassigneul told BioCentury. He said the company is not viable in the absence of Medicare coverage, noting that Medicare represents about half of the market for Predictive's CertNDx (http://www.biocentury.com/products/certndx) bladder cancer diagnostic tests and many private payers mimic Medicare's coverage and reimbursement policies. Predictive's three bladder cancer tests are marketed in the U.S. as laboratory-developed tests, which are not subject to FDA approval.
In January, the Medicare contractor responsible for Ohio, where Predictive Bioscience's CLIA-certified laboratory is located, stopped paying claims for the company's tests, Cassigneul said. The contractor, CGS Administrators LLC, had previously been reimbursing about $380 per test. In April, CGS informed Predictive that resumption of coverage would be contingent on the company producing evidence of clinical utility, Cassigneul told BioCentury. He said a study to demonstrate the utility of CertNDx to predict bladder cancer recurrence could take two years to conduct, and "our investors are not willing to go further in supporting the company." CGS could not be reached for comment.

Predictive was founded in 2006 and has raised $77 million from Flybridge Capital Partners; Highland Capital Partners; Kaiser Permanente Ventures; New Enterprise Associates; and ProQuest Investments. Cassigneul said the company was "on track for $14.5 million" in 2013 revenues before losing Medicare coverage. Predictive's revenues were $1 million in 2011 and $4.2 million in 2012.

From: http://www.biocentury.com/dailynews/company/2013-05-29/cms-coverage-denial-shutting-down-predictive-biosciences

More interesting info in threads on this board: http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/forumdisplay.php?f=701

From what I can tell, it turns out that their test was bit of a flop. I'm not certain of this though, still looking for some solid details. If they were on track for $14.5mil in sales, then I can't see Cxbladder having too many issues reaching targets if their product is as good as it claims. I guess it also points out potential risks for PEB too.

Xerof

30-05-2013, 09:21 PM

Thanks MAC, and Hancocks

I don't see any guidance figures at all, only a series of penetration % examples, which of course look spectacular at the high end. See the disclaimer 1. in the small print on page 27

I want to wait for the full report, and some commentary, and perhaps even wait a year to see a track record, before entering.

XEROF

Tumek

30-05-2013, 09:51 PM

Well it would appear CxBladder's main rival, Predictive Bioscience's Certndx, has just gone under.

From: http://www.biocentury.com/dailynews/company/2013-05-29/cms-coverage-denial-shutting-down-predictive-biosciences

More interesting info in threads on this board: http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/forumdisplay.php?f=701

From what I can tell, it turns out that their test was bit of a flop. I'm not certain of this though, still looking for some solid details. If they were on track for $14.5mil in sales, then I can't see Cxbladder having too many issues reaching targets if their product is as good as it claims. I guess it also points out potential risks for PEB too.
Good info thanks. Great news for US division

Tumek

30-05-2013, 10:02 PM

Hi Tumek, the only clue we really get is in the reports and learning to read past the hype. I think you are doing great by analysing stated goals in previous reports and checking against achievements. However, it is also important to understand why a certain goal wasn’t achieved; Pacific Edge have missed a few over the years, but the reasons behind this was more opportunity because of changing technology etc. which in one instance added a year or two to Cxbladder development, but the gains were incredible and well worth it. The technology that changed was the availability of desk top units to analyse the tests.

I’m slightly disappointed in the revenue announced in this report, because the steady uptake indicated in the 2011 report obviously just ain’t there. But I still think Pacific Edge is the tiger’s pyjamas.
Hopefully full report may enlighten us as to why uptake is low. I'm in for long haul, just keeping it real, I think?

barney

31-05-2013, 06:39 AM

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/259167/pacific-edge-has-loss-us-beckons

Don't think I'll sell just yet.

Interesting about Predictive Bioscience. I'm picking the difference between their product and CXBladder is that Pacific Edge have done the hard yards in terms of developing their product so they were able to provide catergory one clinical trial data. Good enough to be published in the American Journal Of Urology.

As has been mentioned previously on this thread, medical specialists can be a conservative lot, so getting the science right and providing the proper clinical evidence is essential in launching a new product. There might be some frustration regarding revenue to date, but things look to be on track to me.

Minerbarejet

31-05-2013, 07:19 AM

All good barney. One thing that concerns me is the fact that they have this name of Pedusa. Bit too much like the mythical Medusa, the young lady with the snake encrusted bad hair day whose countenance could only be observed by using a mirror. However, upon reflection, I suppose the snake is all part of the medical symbol. Just hope it all doesn't become a near myth or a load of old cobras

Dej

31-05-2013, 07:40 AM

Minerbarejet

31-05-2013, 08:46 AM

"Mr Darling expected the first US tests would be going through the Pennsylvania lab within about eight weeks" From that article and with a spare 14.5 million worth of business trying to find a home now it could get very interesting very quickly. If it turns out that PEB has blown the major US opposition out of the water at this stage with a superior test package or at least has something more suitable available then I see them becoming a benchmark in this field worldwide.

Slam dunk

31-05-2013, 09:06 AM

[QUOTE=barney;409943]http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/259167/pacific-edge-has-loss-us-beckons

This sounded interesting...

"Mr Darling said Cxbladder had several applications for a number of variations within diagnosing bladder cancer, and the company was in negotiations with several parties, but he was unable to identify them yet."

barney

31-05-2013, 09:24 AM

The ODT article this morning is typical understated but exciting stuff for Pacific Edge Limited, gotta luv em! Got 25 staff, good level to get traction.

That was a bit of a suprise Hancocks, 25 staff already with another 14 to be hired in coming months. It just shows how much work they have been doing and how far they have come in a reasonably short time. Hats off to David Darling and co.

Looks like there might be some more announcements coming in the monthe ahead, if negotiations go as planned.

AGM on August 22nd will be an interesting affair. I think they might need a bigger venue this year.

Tumek

31-05-2013, 01:22 PM

Timing is everything I guess.

From yesterday’s FY13 results "Management retains the expectation that Pacific Edge will reach the 200,000 tests per annum throughput target for the laboratory by the end of the 5th year of trading".

No company can guarantee a forward expectation but this table as a growth curve appears to trend well toward guidance PEB affirmed in the results commentary, and it commences from here on in. Further affirmed by David Darling's comments this morning in the ODT that "Pacific Edge estimates it could be turning over $100 million a year in the United States within five years."

Disc: holding and buckling up

4566

If we were to assume similar market penetration in NZ/AUS.

Yr1: 0.005*55000/85000(total no. of tests,low/high conservative)
=275/425 (market share)

275/425*320(retail cost,NZ)=88000/136000(total sales yr1)
> actual 198000

Yr2: @ 0.02 > 352000/467500 (total sales). > Actual 182000

Yr3. @0.05 > 880000/1360000 (total sales) > 400/700% increase

MAC

31-05-2013, 04:13 PM

The early NZ/Aus growth curve is a little different to the US curve IMHO, as PEB have been boldly attempting to sell concurrently with an R&D or pre-approvals development phase up until now.

If you or I were to sit in a senior urologists or a DHB general managers chair and spin around a few times we may very well realise that the last question we would want to receive is 'why we had committed to a CxBladder test programme that ultimately failed US regulatory approval'.

It is entirley possible that what we have been seeing in the second half of the 2013 year is health professionals waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting for CLIA approval, and now it’s been achieved it's now time for them to commit. The lull or anticipation period may be what we are seeing reflected in the local market FY13 sales figures having dropped slightly. And, sure enough we are only now, post CLIA approval, starting to see DHB's come on board.

Agree that the NZ, Australian and Spanish sales will be a nice sweetener on top of the US sales growth curve.

Ahemmm......., should any of the good folk at PEB ever read this thread, you’re most dedicated and loyal investors would like to request quarterly sales reports from here on forward, then we don't have to guess as above - many thanks.

Tumek

31-05-2013, 09:01 PM

The early NZ/Aus growth curve is a little different to the US curve IMHO, as PEB have been boldly attempting to sell concurrently with an R&D or pre-approvals development phase up until now.

If you or I were to sit in a senior urologists or a DHB general managers chair and spin around a few times we may very well realise that the last question we would want to receive is 'why we had committed to a CxBladder test programme that ultimately failed US regulatory approval'.

.

It is entirley possible that what we have been seeing in the second half of the 2013 year is health professionals waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting for CLIA approval, and now it’s been achieved it's now time for them to commit. The lull or anticipation period may be what we are seeing reflected in the local market FY13 sales figures having dropped slightly. And, sure enough we are only now, post CLIA approval, starting to see DHB's come on board.

Agree that the NZ, Australian and Spanish sales will be a nice sweetener on top of the US sales growth curve.

Ahemmm......., should any of the good folk at PEB ever read this thread, you’re most dedicated and loyal investors would like to request quarterly sales reports from here on forward, then we don't have to guess as above - many thanks.
Efficacy and cost, would be a pretty good answer.

But who know's you could be right

Snow Leopard

31-05-2013, 09:32 PM

...my great fear is this company gets bought out before demonstrating its potential.

Just buy 10.1%

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Minerbarejet

01-06-2013, 04:02 AM

Or coalesce with like minded shareholders.
Exactly - count me in.

Dentie

01-06-2013, 06:39 AM

Or coalesce with like minded shareholders.

Totally agree here Sparky. With Major - that's three of us at least. Would be a great shame to be supporting PEB over all this time - only to have someone with deep pockets to come and clean us all out before reaching proper realisation potantial.

Minerbarejet

01-06-2013, 08:55 AM

so we need about 5mil shares then- Id better get back to work:eek2:

forest

01-06-2013, 10:36 AM

so we need about 5mil shares then- Id better get back to work:eek2:

According to DB site nearly 280 mil shares on issue, so 10% is a few more then 5 mil. Majorbarejet go back to work and make lots of overtime. :).

Minerbarejet

01-06-2013, 10:51 AM

According to DB site nearly 280 mil shares on issue, so 10% is a few more then 5 mil. Majorbarejet go back to work and make lots of overtime. :).
I should have said each I suppose. Half a dozen people at 5 mil each should do it.
oh well only 4,960.000 to go. :)

blobbles

01-06-2013, 12:39 PM

I've got 50k to add to that! I am totally coalesced.

JohnnyTheHorse

01-06-2013, 01:18 PM

Would be interesting to know if Pacific Edge will be trying to capitalise on the shut down of Predictive Biosciences. Assuming everyone that was using CertNDx still wants a product like it, then there is an easy 27,000 test p/a to be sold (Based on $500 per test and the predicted $13.5 million sales for Predictive Biosciences).

MAC

01-06-2013, 01:45 PM

That's an interesting bit of analysis. JonnyTheHorse, have you any equally informative data on how long it took Predictive Biosciences to accumulate 27,000 test p/a ?.

JohnnyTheHorse

01-06-2013, 02:21 PM

Oops, they had forecast $14.5 mil in 2013 sales, so that'd be 29,000 tests. They had revenue of $1mil in 2011 and revenue of $4.2mil in 2012. It looks like people were really starting to take up the test in the last year or so. I'm not sure of the size of the sales force they had, but it makes PEB's early stage sales estimates look quite achievable and realistic (as in my view, PEB have have hired the right people and are really doing things properly).

Minerbarejet

03-06-2013, 11:07 AM

What I'm getting out of all this is an indication that Predictive were only involved in Ohio. What about all the other states and their thousands of people who need diagnosis. Who is doing the diagnostics elsewhere and with what? Being a main competitor and only involved in one state doesn't seem to add up. The figures do though. say 30000 per state average x50 states is still under the 1,800,000 possible cases per annum from 2011 prospectus. 30000 x $500 from ohio is just above their 14,500,000 projected business for 2013. These figures are well rounded for ease of comparison.
Huge potential for PEB by the looks

JohnnyTheHorse

04-06-2013, 09:42 AM

Nice quote on that Cafepharama board:

In an effort to spare my creditability I told all my physicians to order cxbladder from Pacific Edge. They were very thankful for me giving them this information. I feel I am not leaving them hanging.

http://www.cafepharma.com/boards/showthread.php?t=532069

It must be noted that the posting on that site is anonymous , so it could just be some cunning investor trying to hype us!

Minerbarejet

04-06-2013, 10:28 AM

That wouldnt be you would it Sparky? The probability of the two words "credibility and hang or hanging " occurring together from two different sources look a tad shall we say "interesting"

JohnnyTheHorse

04-06-2013, 01:21 PM

A few largish orders are appearing. Must be that clown buying on market again! ;)

barney

06-06-2013, 10:40 PM

JohnnyTheHorse

07-06-2013, 09:21 AM

http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/research/fact/detail.html?studyid=STU%20112012-018

I recall David Darling saying that they hoped to have a prognostic test ready for market about a year after launching cxbladder in the US. This looks like a clinical trial for such a product.

Good find. It's a study looking at reoccurrence monitoring, whereas the last one was specifically for people presenting with gross hematuria. It is likely that the CxBladder test is exactly the same, but it is also possible that there are one or two extra markers being used.

As an aside, I found this study very interesting: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19913254

Dentie

11-06-2013, 05:37 PM

Can someone please help me with another bit of education...

I have been noticing a few days now where someone (or a collection of someones) sells about 100k of shares right on 5pm or as close to the end of trading as possible. Can someone please help me understand why this happens? That is, why do some people with large parcels of shares to sell do it right at the end of a day's trading? Is it a particular trading strategy and if so, why?

Many thanks in advance.

Xerof

11-06-2013, 06:14 PM

Insto's (and some pro traders) prefer to transact at the auctions either at open or close. This provides the zone of most liquidity, and price discovery.

nothing sinister usually, although conspirators seem to think there's more to it than that.

Then of course theres the HFT bots who trade in tiny parcels, often manipulating the closing price, but that is another conspiracy theory!

percy

11-06-2013, 06:28 PM

The old adage is "amateurs trade in the morning, pros trade in the afternoon", which is because the impetuous and those responding to the daily news ring up their brokers to get in on the action ASAP. Wiser heads sometimes wait until the afternoon, as the buying rush might drop off quickly and the price come back down to potentially lower levels.

As for the end of day trades, these are called "crossings" (at least to some). They are often, but not always, institutional trades privately agreed to. They like this because it provides in their view, more transparent pricing.

I have found selling in the morning means I get a better price.