View Full Version : PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd
The sp action says PEB has made little traction in real sales.
Otherwise, word would leaked out and sp would be above $1.00 by now.
Very interesting comment Balance. I remember back in the heady days of $1+ you were very bullish on PEB. What's happened?
Considering the latest run up to 95 cents was on the back of a negligible revenue booster (melanoma ann) in the next 2-3 years, I think we can safely assume any new fall would target the 60 cent area (mean reversion). Guess PEB is still prone to momentum/trader hype, no matter how many on here would like to deny it (at least until real revenues start coming through!)
Balance
03-11-2014, 12:58 PM
Very interesting comment Balance. I remember back in the heady days of $1+ you were very bullish on PEB. What's happened?
Considering the latest run up to 95 cents was on the back of a negligible revenue booster (melanoma ann) in the next 2-3 years, I think we can safely assume any new fall would target the 60 cent area (mean reversion). Guess PEB is still prone to momentum/trader hype, no matter how many on here would like to deny it (at least until real revenues start coming through!)
I am on record as bailing out of most of my shares a few months ago when the Chairman and company refused to update or comment on Swan's 'tens of thousands of tests in 2014' at the AGM.
I am on record as bailing out of most of my shares a few months ago when the Chairman and company refused to update or comment on Swan's 'tens of thousands of tests in 2014' at the AGM.
Ah yes now I remember. Getting older and all, memory fading into oblivion. :scared:
Balance
03-11-2014, 01:46 PM
Ah yes now I remember. Getting older and all, memory fading into oblivion. :scared:
Happy to buy back in if PEB shows traction in sales - my suspicion is that they are struggling.
Will be a few other shareholders like me looking closely at this result and finger on the button!
Sales are likely to go in a piecewise steps, just like climbing the stairs as each contract is brought on board.
It could be either Medicare or Kaiser Permanente that is first, but neither have occurred in the six months to 30th September 2014, making the pending report quite predictable really.
Sales are a way of measuring progress with IT tech stocks because tech stocks often require years of revenue growth to achieve scales of economy before breaking even.
Molecular biotech stocks on the other hand are quite different as the gross margins are much much higher, the first big contract that comes along may well make PEB profitable.
Pacific edge could easily go from very few sales as at present to enough to make them profitable within a single reporting period.
It’s a total waste of time trying to equate early sales figures with progress toward profitability, rather one has to look at the ground work the company is putting in place.
Balance
03-11-2014, 02:54 PM
Sales are likely to go in a piecewise steps, just like climbing the stairs as each contract is brought on board.
It could be either Medicare or Kaiser Permanente that is first, but neither have occurred in the six months to 30th September 2014, making the pending report quite predictable really.
Sales are a way of measuring progress with IT tech stocks because tech stocks often require years of revenue growth to achieve scales of economy before breaking even.
Molecular biotech stocks on the other hand are quite different as the gross margins are much much higher, the first big contract that comes along may well make PEB profitable.
Pacific edge could easily go from very few sales as at present to enough to make them profitable within a single reporting period.
It’s a total waste of time trying to equate early sales figures with progress toward profitability, rather one has to look at the ground work the company is putting in place.
Clock is ticking on Chairman's 'tens of thousands of tests'.
That's what is at stake here now - credibility.
Much of investing in early start companies is about management.
Anyway, one man's opinion.
Meanwhile, sales numbers*are being collated for release to market and sp is falling ahead of announcement?
Clock is ticking on Chairman's 'tens of thousands of tests'.
That's what is at stake here now - credibility.
Much of investing in early start companies is about management.
Anyway, one man's opinion.
Meanwhile, sales numbers*are being collated for release to market and sp is falling ahead of announcement?
No one will no how many tests there have been in 2014 until reporting time in May next year, plenty of time for that, doesn't seem unreasonable to me to expect 10,000 either actually.
I'm quite bullish on PEB, just another's opinion, they're pretty much on track, give or take, against the strategic plan they have provided, and they reaffirmed their US$100M goal as achieveable as recently as the AGM.
This coming report is all about the commentary, what they expect for the second half.
A continued reaffirmation of goals, launch of Cxbladder(triage), commentary with progress on discussion with LUG's and HMO's, timing for the next step up in sales staff from eight to twenty, timing for expansion into Asia, progress on discussions with pharma's on melanoma and colorectal companion diagnostic proposals, etc.
It could be either Medicare or Kaiser Permanente that is first, but neither have occurred in the six months to 30th September 2014, making the pending report quite predictable really.
My bet would be on Kaiser as they have set up the latest testing with PEB. Very disappointing that no promised coverage has been announced though. Under promise and over deliver is a good motto to follow, especially in a regulated sector like medical.
Sales are a way of measuring progress with IT tech stocks because tech stocks often require years of revenue growth to achieve scales of economy before breaking even.
PS ratio's were born out of the Dotcom Bubble because there was no other way of valuing the insanity that was going on. It is easy to see why PS ratios get out of hand on loss making companies when sentiments get irrationally exuberant. PEB was no different.
Molecular biotech stocks on the other hand are quite different as the gross margins are much much higher, the first big contract that comes along may well make PEB profitable.
Isn't PEB quoting 80% margins on CxBladder? That is no different than gross margins for Diligent (80%+) or near Xero or VML (70%+, once the marketting/building of customers is done that is!)
Pacific edge could easily go from very few sales as at present to enough to make them profitable within a single reporting period.
Is that before or after the next capital raise? Your guess is as good as anyone's right now! Going to be interesting looking at revenues and burn rate at HY time...
It’s a total waste of time trying to equate early sales figures with progress toward profitability, rather one has to look at the ground work the company is putting in place.
You just said the only thing we could use was PS ratios. The company can put all the groundwork it wants in; if revenues never appear, it's a pure and utter dud. The more HY and FY reports that come out, the more the company will be valued on it's revenues. I hope you are prepared for that shift?
No one will know how many tests there have been in 2014 until reporting time in May next year, plenty of time for that, doesn't seem unreasonable to me to expect 10,000 either actually.
Unknowns and missed targets. Yikes! The market doesn't like uncertainty! :scared:
I'm quite bullish on PEB, just another's opinion, they're pretty much on track, give or take, against the strategic plan they have provided, and they reaffirmed their US$100M goal as achieveable as recently as the AGM.
Good, someones has to be I guess!
This coming report is all about the commentary, what they expect for the second half.
I'd certainly be praying for more than commentary like the last round. This is a company that needs to make money; the bubble sentiment to push it to extreme heights is long gone. Once it's gone, words alone cannot bring it up again. The company needs real, set-in-stone results. Nothing more, nothing less.
A continued reaffirmation of goals, launch of Cxbladder(triage), commentary with progress on discussion with LUG's and HMO's, timing for the next step up in sales staff from eight to twenty, timing for expansion into Asia, progress on discussions with pharma's on melanoma and colorectal companion diagnostic proposals, etc.
See above. Enough talk; where's our money?!?! :D
Gawd, one could practically write a book on why all that rubbish is just fundamentally wrong. The take away though I think is just simply that it seems Moose’s are not capable of changing their spots :)
Gawd, one could practically write a book on why all that rubbish is just fundamentally wrong. The take away though I think is just simply that it seems Moose’s are not capable of changing their spots :)
Fundamentally, how could you even begin to argue that sentiment has not shifted from "exuberant" to "negative" (at best)? And that's all PEB has going for it until that revenue starts rolling in.
See my cheeky buy for 10,000 at $0.16.
Falling price could just be the sheep. This company surprises and seems tight lipped. So who knows!
But I don't think the upcoming report is about commentary at all, the time for that crap is over, it's time for facts and figures mate!
See my cheeky buy for 10,000 at $0.16.
Falling price could just be the sheep. This company surprises and seems tight lipped. So who knows!
But I don't think the upcoming report is about commentary at all, the time for that crap is over, it's time for facts and figures mate!
At market stop loss from an unlucky punter could very well go your way with that extremely thin sell side! Good luck! :D
Fundamentally, how could you even begin to argue that sentiment has not shifted from "exuberant" to "negative" (at best)? And that's all PEB has going for it until that revenue starts rolling in.
Well look, I'm really not sure I want to bother because I'm really not sure you're really genuinely willing to try to get it, but since I've got all afternoon and I think you deserve a respectful go.
Firstly, Pacific Edge is not a saas type tech stock where P/S ratios are often applied, where as you point out that is often are all there is, and even then such metrics are wildly inaccurate.
Tech stocks require scale to achieve profitability because overheads in achieving early sales are typically very high to overcome, it can take years, and shareholders monitor revenue growth curves quarterly over years as an indicator of when, or for that matter if, they will become profitable.
Molecular biotech stocks, as with some other sectors, by comparison have really quite low pre-profitability overheads, COGS arise from only a handful of staff salaries and lab processing costs. The hurdle to overcome in achieving profitability requires relatively few sales, just a few thousand.
That few thousand could happen within 6 to 12 months of a first contract sign up. It may take less than ten such contracts for Pacific Edge to reach their US$100M goal.
A better means of gauging PEB progress is to assess how many contracts are under negotiation, how many have progressed to user programmes, and how many have been signed up. Just one sign up like KP next year is enough to keep them on track.
As for sentiment, couldn't really give a monkey's, I'm an investor not a social worker. Such a thing only serves to create buying and selling opportunities when the SP drifts from valuation.
Stocks are valued on forward prospective cashflows, there's few reasons to anticipate Pacific Edge will not complete their strategic plan, they have pretty much been on track for three years now providing good confidence in management, and a there are a many reasons to anticipate they will meet their goals.
Within that Edison valuation range of $0.46 through $3.91, IMO there is significantly much greater likelihood of upside prosperity than not.
Im always suspicious of the behind the scenes stuff--Some will remember just before ''the sales announcement'' some company came on board and the SP jumped on opening,only to fall rather dramatically that day--that was BEFORE the announcement.
It was hard to believe there wasnt a bit of hanky panky going on at that time (not saying its the case now but....)
Minerbarejet
03-11-2014, 04:50 PM
Seems to be a few hungry bears around now spring is here, dont you reckon MAC?
blobbles
03-11-2014, 06:45 PM
I really don't see Kaiser moving until the results of the user program are out (end of March to middle of the year?). Even after then I would expect some umming and ahhhing before they commit to anything. These are big companies that have to move slowly and thoughtfully thinking about all the implications of a decision like supporting a new test.
couta1
03-11-2014, 09:14 PM
Sigh another day of down ramping I see, the knockers have set up camp again.
Balance
03-11-2014, 10:05 PM
Sigh another day of down ramping I see, the knockers have set up camp again.
Relax, couta1.
2014 is marching on and the chairman's 'tens of thousands of tests' will soon be reality or myth?
Dentie
04-11-2014, 05:48 AM
Relax, couta1.
2014 is marching on and the chairman's 'tens of thousands of tests' will soon be reality or myth?
I'm more comfortable waiting for "tens of thousands of tests" than I would be if it were "tens of thousands of sales"...
Minerbarejet
04-11-2014, 06:06 AM
Sigh another day of down ramping I see, the knockers have set up camp again.Think we need one of those new sign thingies couta1.
You know the ones that say " DO NOT KNOCK":)
winner69
04-11-2014, 06:25 AM
Sigh another day of down ramping I see, the knockers have set up camp again.
Don't fret couta
The market will eventually reflect fair value of $1.70 odd ...double current price
couta1
04-11-2014, 07:10 AM
Don't fret couta
The market will eventually reflect fair value of $1.70 odd ...double current price
Yep patience has its own reward perhaps a lesson that could be learned by many on the various threads but of course the future is always now to the knockers and daily price watchers:cool:
Balance
04-11-2014, 07:37 AM
Yep patience has its own reward perhaps a lesson that could be learned by many on the various threads but of course the future is always now to the knockers and daily price watchers:cool:
You sound like a glass half empty guy?
Sp goes up and goes down - market dynamics.
Why are you so pre-occupied with the sp going down - take it as a buying opportunity if you believe the story.
If the sp is going up, the future then belongs to the rampers and daily price watchers?
I think PEB's next announcement is going to be crucial to what shareholders and investors do next - so much has been promised and it is time to provide a proper update of how sales are actually tracking.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639
Time for talking is over as far as this holder is concerned.
couta1
04-11-2014, 08:09 AM
You sound like a glass half empty guy?
Sp goes up and goes down - market dynamics. Why are you so pre-occupied with the sp going down - take it as a buying opportunity if you believe the story.
I'm not preoccupied with the sp going down in fact I never mentioned the share price, not buying anymore quite comfortable with my current holding, just an observation of the behavior of some commenting on this and other threads.
Balance
04-11-2014, 08:23 AM
I'm not preoccupied with the sp going down in fact I never mentioned the share price, not buying anymore quite comfortable with my current holding, just an observation of the behavior of some commenting on this and other threads.
2 words to note and use with caution, couta1 :
1. Down ramping - usually means someone is posting negative comments to get a sp down with the intention to buy in lower.
2. Knockers - running a stock with little foundation.
I would hardly call the postings regarding the announcement coming up 'down ramping' or 'knocking' - discussions are healthy and likewise, debate and observations.
steve06
04-11-2014, 10:12 AM
Just recently came back from my OE, wow the share price of PEB certainly have fluctuated quite abit, from $1.7 high back down to 60-70c...
I would agree Blobbles that commercial agreements require time to ramp up, there are a few on this thread that expect unrealistic things from well any business I suspect. Though one must also consider the magnitude of that prospective contract;
Consider the prospective Kaiser Permanente contract;
Number of KP members: 9.5M
Population of the USA: 315M
Potential number of US tests p.a: 2M
Anticipated Cxbladder price point: US$550
Prospective annual KP contract = (9.5/315) x 2 x 550 = US$33M revenues per annum
Just a prospective KP contract alone next year would have PEB on track against the five year plan, it will as you say take several months to roll over the user programme clinical procedures into all facilities. But, if KP have identified both the clinical and commercial benefits they will want them implemented as soon as practicable.
That’s one big difference between the US healthcare system and ours.
Seems to be a few hungry bears around now spring is here, dont you reckon MAC?
just to be clear--That (theory about behind the scenes )would also apply if the SP started rising just before an announcement--Its the thought of those that may be subject to privileged info that gets up my nose--If it is the case -all we mortals can do is watch for signs of whats going on just before for an announcement.
I would agree Blobbles that commercial agreements require time to ramp up, there are a few on this thread that expect unrealistic things from well any business I suspect. Though one must also consider the magnitude of that prospective contract;
Just a prospective KP contract alone next year would have PEB on track against the five year plan, it will as you say take several months to roll over the user programme clinical procedures into all facilities. But, if KP have identified both the clinical and commercial benefits they will want them implemented as soon as practicable.
That’s one big difference between the US healthcare system and ours.
Man,Its complicated over there--Now they are saying that if the Republicans get a majority in the elections (held soon)-Obamacare may be scraped.--Not sure how that would affect PEB,if at all.
One may also consider that in addition to a KP contract we may also see CMS revenues released next year, and early LUG and NPN sales trickling in too.
IMO Pacific Edge are on plan, perhaps slightly ahead, it should give long term shareholders some satisfaction to watch all that roll out and perhaps some more new agreements also next year.
Minerbarejet
04-11-2014, 10:53 AM
just to be clear--That (theory about behind the scenes )would also apply if the SP started rising just before an announcement--Its the thought of those that may be subject to privileged info that gets up my nose--If it is the case -all we mortals can do is watch for signs of whats going on just before for an announcement.
It must be pretty hard to keep a lid on things that could be considered as price sensitive. Inevitably during conversations things get alluded to indirectly and can be inadvertently overheard or interpreted wrongly.
Pacific Edge has always appeared to play it pretty close to the chest. All we can expect to hear in a few weeks is an unknown at this point, but we will be looking for a few more than the 170 odd from March.
Couta ...Remember when you buy and sell shares that you are dealing with a market place...
There are two schools of thinking...
The first school of thought is buying/selling company shares, although you are using a market place, you are buying a piece of company assets and therefore value those shares using company valuation...you treat the market's influence as being irrelevant over time
The second school of thought is when buying/selling company shares you are using a market place, therefore you are buying a piece of company assets via the market place and always governed by the market's valuation.
The "first school of thought" investors always get upset by various market behaviours ( Usually the behaviours which don't go their way)...should they be???..In practice no..because they should realise that buying shares in a specific company is really buying into that marketplace... therefore they will now and always be exposed and dictated by those market forces until they leave the market (sell).
Soooo...Couta welcome to world of the free market place, a place where everyone has their own opinions and reasonings and nature does it's thing by always oscillating (correcting) to keep that systemic equilibrium in place...a place like any other place on Earth ..ruled with a hen pecking order, the big fish have the power within the pond thereby are to be respected. They set the rules so do what they say or get eaten..but, for us small fish, life isn't too bad..eh?... there is a consolation prize that we do live within a democratic system where we can make ourselves feel important by freely expressing our small insignificant opinions without too much fear....but we have to observe all the happenings within our pond (market) and stay alert to survive and prosper..
A Fact of Life:.....Using the above statement..Within the grand scheme of all things within the Universe, it reasons, that Couta's posting opinions about his displeasure of hearing any negative postings (implied..curbing negative posts) is just as important as my post telling him to allow the market the freedom to express its individuals opinions and reasonings.....such is life..eh?
winner69
04-11-2014, 11:20 AM
I'm not preoccupied with the sp going down in fact I never mentioned the share price, not buying anymore quite comfortable with my current holding, just an observation of the behavior of some commenting on this and other threads.
Couta ...I want to go sub 70 again. That way I get another decent trade out PEB
Couta ...I want to go sub 70 again. That way I get another decent trade out PEB
...and when you give up and sell out at sub 60..I'll buy your shares:D
winner69
04-11-2014, 11:30 AM
...and when you give up and sell out at sub 60..I'll buy your shares:D
Would never buy at 69 and sell at 59, you know me better than that hoop.
Maybe you are right it might be a buy at sub 60. Need to keep an eye on those squiggly lines then
Must say pleased with last time I bought sub 70 but disappointed it didn't kick on from over 90 to 110 as the old squiggly lines suggested it might so out the door they went
Minerbarejet
04-11-2014, 12:13 PM
yes it will be interesting to see what Mr Markets expects in the way of sales..........given the recent weakness in share price it looks like a few weak hands are already worried about the up coming sales number.
Snaps is not expecting much sales traction at all...... is hoping to see another small sell down on the numbers and will then seriously revisit PEB to see if it has got some risk reward attach to the share price.
I predict a very positive year next year for PEB after further consolidation of there marketing plan over the past 12 months.
However unfortunately for PEB share holders it's seem to be following the same path as the nmp22 test did 10 years ago. If this is confirmed then the fact that the nmp22 were only achieving 4500 sales per annum after 4 full years of marketing would indicate that PEB management and many on this site are way too enthusiastic about the companies prospect.
This would also mean that the current share price is very lofty.you are comparing dead pauas with live crayfish with nmp22, snap. You may get your chance to get back in but I wouldnt bet on it. Number 7 looks like a good bet today though
Whipmoney
04-11-2014, 12:19 PM
Couta ...Remember when you buy and sell shares that you are dealing with a market place...
There are two schools of thinking...
The first school of thought is buying/selling company shares, although you are using a market place, you are buying a piece of company assets and therefore value those shares using company valuation...you treat the market's influence as being irrelevant over time
The second school of thought is when buying/selling company shares you are using a market place, therefore you are buying a piece of company assets via the market place and always governed by the market's valuation.
The "first school of thought" investors always get upset by various market behaviours ( Usually the behaviours which don't go their way)...should they be???..In practice no..because they should realise that buying shares in a specific company is really buying into that marketplace... therefore they will now and always be exposed and dictated by those market forces until they leave the market (sell).?
It is incorrect to say that fundamental investors (the first school) always get upset when the market doesn't go there way. Maybe 'sometimes' might be a better description (when weird market events occur that make no rationale sense) however a wise fundamental investor would realize it is this exactly this behaviour which generates the numerous opportunities to benefit from value plays.
If the market were always on point with its pricing and priced exactly to the point of the fundamental worth of a company then a fundamental investors return would effectively be limited to that of the cash earnings of the company (or something akin to the dividend yield).
It is the fact that the market under/over prices stocks that allows us to buy cheap and sell high.
This rationale by its very nature is why we often view the market as generally being wrong with its pricing (hence why we generally disregard the second school of thought).
Food for thought.
Disc: in the case of PEB I have long thought that it was overvalued (hence the market has been wrong for some time) given the lack of improvement in its fundamentals.
Balance
04-11-2014, 12:24 PM
Couta ...Remember when you buy and sell shares that you are dealing with a market place...
There are two schools of thinking...
A Fact of Life:.....Using the above statement..Within the grand scheme of all things within the Universe, it reasons, that Couta's posting opinions about his displeasure of hearing any negative postings (implied..curbing negative posts) is just as important as my post telling him to allow the market the freedom to express its individuals opinions and reasonings.....such is life..eh?
Great posting, Hoop.
Puts everything in some perspective.
NZSilver
04-11-2014, 12:42 PM
Couta ...Remember when you buy and sell shares that you are dealing with a market place...
There are two schools of thinking...
The first school of thought is buying/selling company shares, although you are using a market place, you are buying a piece of company assets and therefore value those shares using company valuation...you treat the market's influence as being irrelevant over time
The second school of thought is when buying/selling company shares you are using a market place, therefore you are buying a piece of company assets via the market place and always governed by the market's valuation.
The "first school of thought" investors always get upset by various market behaviours ( Usually the behaviours which don't go their way)...should they be???..In practice no..because they should realise that buying shares in a specific company is really buying into that marketplace... therefore they will now and always be exposed and dictated by those market forces until they leave the market (sell).
Soooo...Couta welcome to world of the free market place, a place where everyone has their own opinions and reasonings and nature does it's thing by always oscillating (correcting) to keep that systemic equilibrium in place...a place like any other place on Earth ..ruled with a hen pecking order, the big fish have the power within the pond thereby are to be respected. They set the rules so do what they say or get eaten..but, for us small fish, life isn't too bad..eh?... there is a consolation prize that we do live within a democratic system where we can make ourselves feel important by freely expressing our small insignificant opinions without too much fear....but we have to observe all the happenings within our pond (market) and stay alert to survive and prosper..
A Fact of Life:.....Using the above statement..Within the grand scheme of all things within the Universe, it reasons, that Couta's posting opinions about his displeasure of hearing any negative postings (implied..curbing negative posts) is just as important as my post telling him to allow the market the freedom to express its individuals opinions and reasonings.....such is life..eh?
Second that balance - one of the best posts ive seen in a while!
Balance
04-11-2014, 12:54 PM
lol as usual your one sided bull approach.
Lets not forget nmp22 was touted as being the next best thing 15 years ago... never really took off.
Lets also remember that nmp22 has a specificity of 88% compared to CX bladders 85%.
I have read the share forums chat sites about nmp22.... way back in the early 2000.
There were plenty of Mac's and Dentie's and Minors on that site too...... all thought they had struck gold by investing in the company that owned nmp22.... until the company sold out for fark all as sales traction was so slow.....35 million I believe with a substantial list of IP thrown in as well or was that what the $35m was for and nmp22 was thrown in.... hard to say but I notice on any urology sit I visit NMP22 gets way more mention than CX Bladder. More times than not cx bladder still is not mentioned
Sobering reading about Maritech & NMP22 and how it was sold for $36m after such huge promise.
Let's hope PEB has learnt from Maritech's mistakes and will deliver.
So far, company has been super big on announcements but very light on actual sales.
I'm looking for 'tens of thousands of units of sales'.
Then, it's buy with gusto.
Well, readers can assess for themselves what the facts are and what is just simply bull**** from knockers with agenda’s.
NMP22 never took off because it was simply not as good as what clinicians were already doing, cytology, it was not a disruptive technology in the market for that very reason, that's not to say that it has not been profitable for Alere, it's been very profitable as some clinicians use it as a pre-screening process.
Cxbladder is the first such test to come along that demonstrably is superior to incumbent clinical practice, and by quite a good margin too, that makes it uniquely a disruptive technology and provides for the company and investors a unique opportunity, as Pacific Edge are in a first mover position to capitalise on that advantage.
In addition, there are several more uses and applications for Cxbladder products than what NMP22 is capable of providing. There are even a couple of applications which Cytology cannot perform but which Cxbladder can, for the first time offer to clinicians.
Both the performance and the market is significantly greater for Cxbladder.
If some seem bullish it is for both good clinical and business reasons.
6438
psychic
04-11-2014, 01:21 PM
Time to re-read notes on Sensitivity/ Specificity again Snapiti?
Dentie
04-11-2014, 01:25 PM
lol as usual your one sided bull approach.
Lets not forget nmp22 was touted as being the next best thing 15 years ago... never really took off.
Lets also remember that nmp22 has a specificity of 88% compared to CX bladders 85%.
I have read the share forums chat sites about nmp22.... way back in the early 2000.
There were plenty of Mac's and Dentie's and Minors on that site too...... all thought they had struck gold by investing in the company that owned nmp22.... until the company sold out for fark all as sales traction was so slow.....35 million I believe with a substantial list of IP thrown in as well or was that what the $35m was for and nmp22 was thrown in.... hard to say but I notice on any urology sit I visit NMP22 gets way more mention than CX Bladder. More times than not cx bladder still is not mentioned
I'll take the bait Snapiti....
As an unashamed “bull” on what PEB is trying to achieve for those poor buggers that have, at the moment, bladder cancer. Hopefully they will also help colorectal patients and others in the future
You’ve used NMP22’s inability to make meaningful sales over a 15 year period on several occasions now as your means to quell any headway PEB might be making in the market…either in the SP or in the business generally.
Your above post just highlights how archaic and sloth like Urologists might be in taking up new medical advances, probably only because they are afraid of possible litigation – as opposed to what might be the superior technology. If they put their patients best interests ahead of their own, I think you will find PEB would have trouble keeping up with demand.
As for striking gold, well – along with others, we certainly did and took a lot off the table. But, I really believe in PEB - so have a left a fair bit on the table as well.
If PEB held your view, they would look at what NMP22 has achieved, fold up the company and go fishing instead! Thankfully, they believe in what they are doing…and good on them.
Minerbarejet
04-11-2014, 01:36 PM
Time to re-read notes on Sensitivity/ Specificity again Snapiti?Dont tell me we have to get Hancocks car with the burglar alarm out again. (bashing head against brick wall)
It is incorrect to say that fundamental investors (the first school) always get upset when the market doesn't go there way. Maybe 'sometimes' might be a better description (when weird market events occur that make no rationale sense) however a wise fundamental investor would realize it is this exactly this behaviour which generates the numerous opportunities to benefit from value plays.
If the market were always on point with its pricing and priced exactly to the point of the fundamental worth of a company then a fundamental investors return would effectively be limited to that of the cash earnings of the company (or something akin to the dividend yield).
It is the fact that the market under/over prices stocks that allows us to buy cheap and sell high.
This rationale by its very nature is why we often view the market as generally being wrong with its pricing (hence why we generally disregard the second school of thought).
Food for thought.
Disc: in the case of PEB I have long thought that it was overvalued (hence the market has been wrong for some time) given the lack of improvement in its fundamentals.
Whip...The Mr Market wasn't wrong....The Fundamentalists saw value in PEB using those "back then" variables and going forward.. ..Since then, those variables have changed (as they do) and the market corrects (as it does) ... Investors aren't as upbeat and have priced PEB with more conservatism now..
..Speaking about weird market events ....I've seen about 6 severe market/economic downturns (2007 downturn was only mild in NZ and overall sanity still prevailed) and from experience I've seen some really crazy insane fundamental cause and effect sh1t happen during bear crashes which are beyond rational belief and unfortunately those actions are beyond most people's control and has the ability to destroy fundamentally healthy companies and investors life savings to boot....I was a pure fundamental investor for 25 years and those times have made me wise enough to never quote your statement I took liberty to highlight in your quoted post ..:)
Opportunities from a Technical perspective Yes definitely!!!...Opportunities from a Fundamental perpective...hmmm from experience it's a cautious maybe
Well, readers can assess for themselves what the facts are and what is just simply bull**** from knockers with agenda’s.
NMP22 never took off because it was simply not as good as what clinicians were already doing, cytology, it was not a disruptive technology in the market for that very reason, that's not to say that it has not been profitable for Alere, it's been very profitable as some clinicians use it as a pre-screening process.
Cxbladder is the first such test to come along that demonstrably is superior to incumbent clinical practice, and by quite a good margin too, that makes it uniquely a disruptive technology and provides for the company and investors a unique opportunity, as Pacific Edge are in a first mover position to capitalise on that advantage.
In addition, there are several more uses and applications for Cxbladder products than what NMP22 is capable of providing. There are even a couple of applications which Cytology cannot perform but which Cxbladder can, for the first time offer to clinicians.
Both the performance and the market is significantly greater for Cxbladder.
If some seem bullish it is for both good clinical and business reasons.
6438
Thats great....but does that mean there will be sales?.........
Meanwhile I float in that mirky world between fundamental long term holders---and traders-----buying and selling to stay alive in ''the market'' with a company that I like.
So in a nutshell Yea!!! PEB.---Dang those conservative urologists---and DANG that mr market!!!---unless things go well --and the YEA!! everything (remember when mr.market and PEB were the same thing?)
Which brings me back to that knawing question--Is this action atm just investors getting cold feet--or is it those insiders with info.
If the sales turn out to be stellar then we will know it was the former--If they are not good--then I guess Ill keep on wondering.
I totally agree with you that if the urologist's put their patients first cx bladder would be a winner.
The problem is that history shows us they have been very reluctant to do so and judging from the very slow sales traction of cx bladder nothing has changed.
Have a read of the recent QRX debarkle......... it serve as a reminder where blind faith gets investors when they invest in managements blind faith.
Oh dear lord, QRX, what an utter disaster. Missed that bullet very narrowly.
We are all only one trade away from eating a large slice of humble pie. Always remember that!
Minerbarejet
04-11-2014, 07:20 PM
So in a nutshell Yea!!! PEB.---Dang those conservative urologists---and DANG that mr market!!!---unless things go well --and the YEA!! everything (remember when mr.market and PEB were the same thing?)
Which brings me back to that knawing question--Is this action atm just investors getting cold feet--or is it those insiders with info.
If the sales turn out to be stellar then we will know it was the former--If they are not good--then I guess Ill keep on wondering.
So what would your numbers be for a middle of the road neither stellar nor too bad result to end of Sept.
Mine is 3328. If it is 2053 we are a month behind, 1265 2 months behind, 778 3 months behind.
5391 1 month ahead, 8729 2 months ahead.
This is based on a fibonacci curve starting with 3 for last sept announcement and 176 to end of March.
3 and 7 are the two starting numbers.
This also gives us , dare I say it, "several 10s of thousands" by end of March 2015.
winner69
04-11-2014, 08:10 PM
yes a shocker but lots of investors had great faith in the management for a long time despite results not supporting the promises.
All this reminds of that great Australian company Metal Storm .... zillions of posts on sharetrader equivalents about what a great product and great management and tens of thousands of sales and fortunes being made .... and it all came to nought
KW probalky remembers?
Minerbarejet
04-11-2014, 08:19 PM
If it is 4 to 500 sales then all that means is that they are 4 to 5 months behind the curve as far as Im concerned and the curve will need redrawing. Likewise if it is more than 3300.
This is only a theory and a relatively miner one.
Quite prepared to be pilloried and castigated if sadly in error.
Bit like Global Warming
Minerbarejet
04-11-2014, 08:35 PM
the fibonacci sequence is one of the most common in natural science. Each value is the sum of the previous two values. It starts at 0 or 1 and proceeds as follows:
0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13, 21, 34, 55, 89.....
Yes and in this case starting with 3 and 7 you get 10,17,27,44,71 for 176, (end of March) then 115, 186, 301, 487, 788, 1275, for 3328 (end of Sept).
61.something rings a bell with this as well, will investigate further.
Great day, first time I ever won anything on a Melbourne Cup
winner69
04-11-2014, 08:47 PM
Yes and in this case starting with 3 and 7 you get 10,17,27,44,71 for 176, (end of March) then 115, 186, 301, 487, 788, 1275, for 3328 (end of Sept).
61.something rings a bell with this as well, will investigate further.
Great day, first time I ever won anything on a Melbourne Cup
...and close to a billion in a years time
Minerbarejet
04-11-2014, 09:01 PM
...and close to a billion in a years time Agreed, the curve must drop off somewhere, - as long as its not before we get going eh Snap
And its 1.61, the golden ratio, that came to mind.( such as it is)
[QUOTE=winner69;515031]All this reminds of that great Australian company Metal Storm .... zillions of posts on sharetrader equivalents about what a great product and great management and tens of thousands of sales and fortunes being made .... and it all came to nought
By memory this company was making guns for military.... whereas to compare to PEB is not right comparison. Medical companies, health companies are raking most money in world...its the century for health gurus.
winner69
04-11-2014, 09:11 PM
By memory this company was making guns for military.... whereas to compare to PEB is not right comparison. Medical companies, health companies are raking most money in world...its the century for health gurus.
Not comparing companies, just highlighting how traders/investors behaviour never seems to change much
winner69
04-11-2014, 09:16 PM
Agreed, the curve must drop off somewhere, - as long as its not before we get going eh Snap
And its 1.61, the golden ratio, that came to mind.( such as it is)
Shells and flowers with their spiral shapes are typical of Fibonacci numbers in nature
Got to be careful and not notice that they can spiral inwards (reverse)......and reach zero
Minerbarejet
04-11-2014, 09:41 PM
Shells and flowers with their spiral shapes are typical of Fibonacci numbers in nature
Got to be careful and not notice that they can spiral inwards (reverse)......and reach zero
Are you suggesting that after having obtained 176 in March we may be back to 3 again in Sept.:)
Leonardo Pisano the famous Mathematician is better known by his nickname Fibonacci knew how the forces of nature can pattern living bodies and shape their natural instincts in behaviour...
Another force of nature that affects living beings shapes and behaviours is the Moon..
Not a believer??? check out PEB's chart below...
Beware...The next full moon is due on the 6th November..two trading days time :D
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEBLunatics.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEBLunatics.png.html)
to early in the week to be drinking hoop
Werewolf cocktail seems very nice...
Werewolf
Drink Type: Cocktail (http://www.barnonedrinks.com/drinks/by_category/cocktails-2/)
Ingredients
1 1/2 oz. Jack Daniel's Whiskey (http://www.barnonedrinks.com/tips/dictionary/j/jack-daniels-whiskey-570.html) (more Jack Daniel's Whiskey drinks (http://www.barnonedrinks.com/drinks/by_ingredient/j/jack-daniels-whiskey-570.html))
1 1/2 oz. Drambuie Liqueur (http://www.barnonedrinks.com/tips/dictionary/d/drambuie-liqueur-417.html) (more Drambuie Liqueur drinks (http://www.barnonedrinks.com/drinks/by_ingredient/d/drambuie-liqueur-417.html))
Instructions
Shake with ice and strain into a lowball glass.
If it is 4 to 500 sales then all that means is that they are 4 to 5 months behind the curve as far as Im concerned and the curve will need redrawing. Likewise if it is more than 3300.
This is only a theory and a relatively miner one.
Quite prepared to be pilloried and castigated if sadly in error.
Bit like Global Warming
a miner one barejetn?
and cograts on your win
Leonardo Pisano the famous Mathematician is better known by his nickname Fibonacci knew how the forces of nature can pattern living bodies and shape their natural instincts in behaviour...
Another force of nature that affects living beings shapes and behaviours is the Moon..
Not a believer??? check out PEB's chart below...
Beware...The next full moon is due on the 6th November..two trading days time :D
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEBLunatics.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEBLunatics.png.html)
Ill have to keep my eye on that one Hoop:):)
(but that horse cloud is just to hard to believe!) Im going to start looking in the sky for a bear or bull:)
pietrade
05-11-2014, 10:52 AM
the only one thats out is line 15. Amazing.
Feeling a bit 'out of it', I wonder just where Halloween fitted into the picture? :-)
Whipmoney
06-11-2014, 02:40 PM
Whip...The Mr. Market wasn't wrong....The Fundamentalists saw value in PEB using those "back then" variables and going forward.. ..Since then, those variables have changed (as they do) and the market corrects (as it does) ... Investors aren't as upbeat and have priced PEB with more conservatism now..
Whipmoney: "however a wise fundamental investor would realize it is this exactly this behaviour which generates the numerous opportunities to benefit from value plays."
I was a pure fundamental investor for 25 years and those times have made me wise enough to never quote your statement I took liberty to highlight in your quoted post ..:)
Opportunities from a Technical perspective Yes definitely!!!...Opportunities from a Fundamental perpective...hmmm from experience it's a cautious maybe
Hoop - Who is Mr. Market? It's exactly that same aggregate group of investors who were long in this stock (back at that point in time) and the benefit of hindsight definitively proves to us that those investors who stayed long got punished. To be more concise to the point.. they mis-valued the stock.
That aggregate group (on a given day) will be comprised of an eclectic mix of "investors", from pure fundamental investors (of the Benjamin Graham variety), to momentum traders, to technical traders all the way down to casual retail investors and to pure speculators.
Now whilst I can't speak for the others, from the significant advantage point of having hindsight, any fundamental investor who stayed long in this stock at those (significantly overinflated) levels clearly got it wrong however this alone doesn't disprove the merits of fundamental investing, in fact it strengthens the argument of it..
All investors (and this likely includes traders, technicians and speculators) will fall on the spectrum of talent. Some have it, some clearly don't and the vast majority are peppered in-between. The fact that such a spectrum exists again goes back to my earlier point/quote (highlighted above) about the existence of opportunities.
When the Mr. Market (essentially an aggregate group of investors) mis-prices a stock relative to its fundamentals (i.e. gets it wrong), then this creates opportunities for those who will get it right (generally those with more talent). This concept is nothing new, its generally referred to as generating "Alpha" or "the alpha co-efficient", which can defined as excess returns, or more succinctly as "talent".
You mention above that the fundamentals have changed and the market has corrected. I don't believe this to be the case. The fundamentals of a given company at a given point in time (whether an investor knows it or not) are essentially the facts of the company. The Market/Investor is not privy to a full view of the facts (i.e. every single facet of the company), so in reality they are reliant on their "perception" of these facts, as interpreted by a set of numbers which are generated under a array of accounting assumptions. In addition to their perception of these facts/fundamentals of a company in its present time, a given investor will also have a view as to what these fundamentals may look like in the future, i.e. they are projecting.
If one knew the fundamentals of PEB omnisciently, it may be that these facts haven't really changed a lot in the past few months/year. Things may have been steadily on track for its commercialization process, the company may have achieved several notable milestones, the awareness of which suddenly sending the stock price into the stratosphere. With lofty prices comes lofty expectations and suddenly investors are hungry for news, good news, great news, or any news really, as long as it is evidencing progress. Meanwhile the company is continuing on its path and is expecting to meet its modest sales target. The ravenous investors on the other hand are expecting big things and when the sales aren't big (or big enough to justify the price) suddenly the company is doomed, the sky is falling and its time to dump their shares and run to the hills.
Now a shrewd fundamental investor may have seen this all coming, quietly realizing the stock-price is continuing to edge up to unfathomable levels despite nothing materially different having occurred with the underlying company. Sure some agreements have been signed and the stock has "de-risked" (whatever that means) in terms of its commercialization process. The sales funnel he notes has yet to have formed and the cash-flow is far from sight. Progress for both is a long way away and as such he is unable to see how the company is suddenly worth an extra $200 million in terms of its market capitalization.
He sells. The stock price continues to climb. Maybe he was wrong, but then again he profited sufficiently (without taking on additional risk). Others tell him that he is wrong and this company is going places (or at least the stock is..) and they remind themselves that they are right (in fact many times over). One day the stock starts to turn and the dream starts to come crashing down. The knives are out and people start down-ramping the stock.
The moral of this story is three-fold:
1) There are a range of investors out there who lie along the spectrum of talent. These investors collectively are Mr. Market.
2) The fact that this very spectrum exists allows for some investors to outperform others (at their expense). This becomes significantly more evident in the long-run. The existence of this spectrum and the undeniable fact that its participants are human leads to an abundance of opportunities in the market for any investor to exploit.
3) Fundamental investing isn't a science nor even an art. It's a sport, or more specifically a blood-sport and some are more talented at it than others. In the long run they will win more than they lose, and investing by its nature is a winner take all sport.
im sure that your third point could be hotly debated--But interesting non the less--Im sure the next report will make those fundamentals a bit clearer(at least a bit) ATM its like trying to put together a puzzle without all the pieces.
Hoop - Who is Mr. Market? It's exactly that same aggregate group of investors who were long in this stock (back at that point in time)Yep and any point in time actually and the benefit of hindsight definitively proves to us that those investors who stayed long got punished only the buy and holders who entered at the top. To be more concise to the point.. they mis-valued the stock. As the fundamental variables going forward changed they failed to exit....Mis-valued Hmmmm perhaps...Entering back then could've been correct had PEB performed to the Fundies expectations....Mind you investor exuberance played a big role, as I mentioned some time ago I thought pricing PEB going forward 2 years seemed rather ambitious and risky in a world of accelerating tech change..
What's normal pricing going forward in a Stock Market .. Average of 6 Months is it??
That aggregate group (on a given day) will be comprised of an eclectic mix of "investors", from pure fundamental investors (of the Benjamin Graham variety), to momentum traders, to technical traders all the way down to casual retail investors and to pure speculators. Yep every type of investor
Now whilst I can't speak for the others, from the significant advantage point of having hindsight, any fundamental investor who stayed long in this stock at those (significantly overinflated..we only know this now not then) levels clearly got it wrong they wouldv'e got it right is the future did as it was suppose to do however this alone doesn't disprove the merits of fundamental investing, agree in fact it strengthens the argument of it..really? can't see why it needs strengthening as it is a mainstream market valuation discipline
All investors (and this likely includes traders, technicians and speculators) will fall on the spectrum of talent. Some have it, some clearly don't and the vast majority are peppered in-between. The fact that such a spectrum exists again goes back to my earlier point/quote (highlighted above) about the existence of opportunities. The world is full of opportunities
When the Mr. Market (essentially an aggregate group of investors) mis-prices a stock relative to its fundamentals very rare nowadays as telling porkies within a balance sheet is now a criminal offense..gone are the days of creative accounting in valuing non market assets (i.e. gets it wrong), then this creates opportunities for those who will get it right (generally those with more talent).Hmmm Usually being fundamentally right is wrong..FA forgets that Mr Market is the boss...The market could stay wrong for years...usually the market is rarely fundamentally correct as its either overbought or oversold and is only correct in the fleeting moment when going from one to the other.. This concept is nothing new, its generally referred to as generating "Alpha" or "the alpha co-efficient", which can defined as excess returns, or more succinctly as "talent". Yes but it is generalised over the market of everything..Generating alpha with one stock only is more aligned with using TA discipline
You mention above that the fundamentals have changed and the market has corrected. I don't believe this to be the case. The fundamentals of a given company at a given point in time (whether an investor knows it or not) are essentially the facts of the company No not always..Company announcements to the Market get the number crunchers attention instantly and they crank their wheel and out spits the new valuation and any change in the risk...their action is noticed via TA signals and its the quick and the dead after that..they. The Market/Investor is not privy to a full view of the facts (i.e. every single facet of the company), true so in reality they are reliant on their "perception" of these facts, as interpreted by a set of numbers which are generated under a array of accounting assumptions. In addition to their perception of these facts/fundamentals of a company in its present time, a given investor will also have a view as to what these fundamentals may look like in the future, i.e. they are projecting.
If one knew the fundamentals of PEB omnisciently, it may be that these facts haven't really changed a lot in the past few months/year. Yes, but investors fundamental perception (as a group) on PEB's future has changed Things may have been steadily on track for its commercialization process, the company may have achieved several notable milestones, the awareness of which suddenly sending the stock price into the stratosphere...Yes that could happen and if it did happen say 9 months ago those FA investors and Mr Market would had been right not wrong..eh? With lofty prices comes lofty expectations and suddenly investors are hungry for news, good news, great news, or any news really, as long as it is evidencing progress. This is called investor greed, PEB has been there :) Meanwhile the company is continuing on its path and is expecting to meet its modest sales target. The ravenous investors on the other hand are expecting big things and when the sales aren't big (or big enough to justify the price) suddenly the company is doomed, the sky is falling and its time to dump their shares and run to the hills. This is called investor fear, PEB has been there too and recently:(
Now a shrewd fundamental investor may have seen this all coming, quietly realizing the stock-price is continuing to edge up to unfathomable levels despite nothing materially different having occurred with the underlying company. Sure some agreements have been signed and the stock has "de-risked" (whatever that means) in terms of its commercialization process. The sales funnel he notes has yet to have formed and the cash-flow is far from sight. Progress for both is a long way away and as such he is unable to see how the company is suddenly worth an extra $200 million in terms of its market capitalization.
He sells Maybe..but the shewd FA could hang in there...Knowing the increasing risk that investor will not have fallen in love with that stock and the twitchy finger will be hovering over the big red sell button...any hint of trouble and the shrewd investor does a Snagglepuss exit.:cool:. The stock price continues to climb. Maybe he was wrong, but then again he profited sufficiently (without taking on additional risk). Others tell him that he is wrong and this company is going places Could also be some very large ramp up investors planning to exit but need time to unload (or at least the stock is..) and they remind themselves that they are right (in fact many times over). One day the stock starts to turn and the dream starts to come crashing down. The knives are out and the dipsters are out there trying to catch them :) people start down-ramping the stock. Animal instinct to evolutionary improve their species, kill off the weak and the sick..
The moral of this story is three-fold:
1) There are a range of investors out there who lie along the spectrum of talent. These investors collectively are Mr. Market.and Mr Market's collective knowledge and IQ is superior to all individual intelligences...unless someone cheats (insider trading)..Mr Market is a living entity but being a collective of the animal species called Homosapiens, Mr Market is vunerable to the same herd intinct, behaviour and emotions as them (us)..
2) The fact that this very spectrum exists allows for some investors to outperform others (at their expense). The way of the world.. Nature can be cruel This becomes significantly more evident in the long-run. The existence of this spectrum and the undeniable fact that its participants are human leads to an abundance of opportunities (and traps..us animals can be a cunning species) in the market for any investor to exploit.
3) Fundamental investing isn't a science nor even an art. It's a sport, or more specifically a blood-sport and some are more talented at it than others. In the long run they will win more than they lose, and investing by its nature is a winner take all sport.
Fighting words Mate...If you hear a buzzing noise in the sky it could this guy after your blood http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/snoopy.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/snoopy.png.html)
.................................................
Minerbarejet
06-11-2014, 11:21 PM
Well done to both of you for both sides to an ongoing story.
Alas, I fear it will never end
I don’t know if TA really works or not as I gave it up after only a couple of years, wasn’t working for me, happy to reserve a conclusive judgement though on that basis, perhaps it needs a decade to master, or perhaps it’s all just hooey, each to their own. But, the oracle didn’t get to be a billionaire without being a wise fellow.
"I realized that technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer." – Warren Buffet
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/avoid-the-mistake-that-cost-buffett-8-years-of-bet.aspx
Minerbarejet
07-11-2014, 12:05 AM
I don’t know if TA really works or not as I gave it up after only a couple of years, wasn’t working for me, happy to reserve a conclusive judgement though on that basis, perhaps it needs a decade to master, or perhaps it’s all just hooey, each to their own. But, the oracle didn’t get to be a billionaire without being a wise fellow.
"I realized that technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer." – Warren Buffet
http://www.fool.com/investing/value/avoid-the-mistake-that-cost-buffett-8-years-of-bet.aspxBoy that Buffet knows a thing or two, better than the average morepork, eh MAC?
The Psychology of the marketplace doesnt "'work''---It just happens---TA tries its best to measure that--Its not a perfect system but the psychology it is trying to measure cannot be dismissed--guess all things work together. FA-TA
By the way I read that Buffet lost a whole heap of money just recently--He though ,like some other chosen few are big enough to actually influence the market,and thats a major advantage.
I admire the way he lives a modest life -I would imagine it makes him less influenced by greed and fear.(which is another advantage as long as intelligence is left in the mix and stubbornness left out)
:):)
Balance
10-11-2014, 08:28 AM
The Psychology of the marketplace doesnt "'work''---It just happens---TA tries its best to measure that--Its not a perfect system but the psychology it is trying to measure cannot be dismissed--guess all things work together. FA-TA
By the way I read that Buffet lost a whole heap of money just recently--He though ,like some other chosen few are big enough to actually influence the market,and thats a major advantage.
I admire the way he lives a modest life -I would imagine it makes him less influenced by greed and fear.(which is another advantage as long as intelligence is left in the mix and stubbornness left out)
:):)
The man refuses to get sucked into hype - IT boom and bust, and more recently, gold.
What is interesting is how he was attacked, criticized and ridiculed by others (who should know better) for being out of synch - and yet, he comes out triumphantly.
Well, it's not that far off now from PEB's half year results - around 18 days or so - so we will see if PEB is too much hype or plenty of substance.
It's well over a year now of PEB signing up the US national providers and announcing the first commercial sales.
"Tens of thousands of tests" - here we come!
My finger is on the button - happy to pay up to reset or letting go of what's left.
Balance
10-11-2014, 10:34 AM
Sp drifting lower - I don't like the look of this at all.
Results are being prepared for the Board to be released to the market about now - hope it's not a case of leakage of information leading to the sp fall.
Minerbarejet
10-11-2014, 10:35 AM
The man refuses to get sucked into hype - IT boom and bust, and more recently, gold.
What is interesting is how he was attacked, criticized and ridiculed by others (who should know better) for being out of synch - and yet, he comes out triumphantly.
Well, it's not that far off now from PEB's half year results - around 18 days or so - so we will see if PEB is too much hype or plenty of substance.
It's well over a year now of PEB signing up the US national providers and announcing the first commercial sales.
"Tens of thousands of tests" - here we come!
My finger is on the button - happy to pay up to reset or letting go of what's left.Looks as if its going to be a few weeks of this up and down business until we get some sales figures.
This is not aimed at anyone in particular.
What I dont get is this general attitude these days of boom or bust, on or off, buy or sell, now or never, whoa or go. There never seems to be any middle ground, its either a complete disaster or its heading for the stars. Does it really matter all that much if PEB doesnt make 100 million in 5 years? Does it really matter if they dont have several 10s of thousands for 2015, what if they have 15000? Anything over and above breakeven will do me for a start even if it is next year or the year after. The best estimate at this point is somewhere between 176 and 30000 for this coming FY announcement in May.
Nov should give us a good indication where that point might actually be.
Are you going to sell if there is no likelihood of them getting" STOT". Is that your criteria, Balance?
Or if it is something else where does it kick in.
Just interested in getting others opinion on what might be good, bad, or downright ugly sales figures
Cheers:)
Miner
psychic
10-11-2014, 11:14 AM
Sp drifting lower - I don't like the look of this at all.
Results are being prepared for the Board to be released to the market about now - hope it's not a case of leakage of information leading to the sp fall.
Volume has been zilch lately. I cannot think of a time when price action has preceded a PEB announcement, can you?
Agree with you Miner, too much emphasis being placed on short term timing. They are knocking the ducks off, just be patient.
psychic
10-11-2014, 11:27 AM
lol....... mean while the duck population for this project is breeding far quicker than they are being knocked off.
Yes, it's an awful thing this bladder cancer.........
psychic
10-11-2014, 12:05 PM
Ducks often trend upward from the bottom left,
6459
lol - wait.. is that snapiti on the wall shooting from below? Won't he get covered by duck ****?
Minerbarejet
10-11-2014, 12:10 PM
Is that a wall of criticism behind them? They seem to be flying in the face of it.
Minerbarejet
10-11-2014, 12:26 PM
lol..........surely even PEB could find someone to buy a fertilizer product
Not without proper duckumentation.
Balance
10-11-2014, 12:30 PM
Looks as if its going to be a few weeks of this up and down business until we get some sales figures.
This is not aimed at anyone in particular.
What I dont get is this general attitude these days of boom or bust, on or off, buy or sell, now or never, whoa or go. There never seems to be any middle ground, its either a complete disaster or its heading for the stars. Does it really matter all that much if PEB doesnt make 100 million in 5 years? Does it really matter if they dont have several 10s of thousands for 2015, what if they have 15000? Anything over and above breakeven will do me for a start even if it is next year or the year after. The best estimate at this point is somewhere between 176 and 30000 for this coming FY announcement in May.
Nov should give us a good indication where that point might actually be.
Are you going to sell if there is no likelihood of them getting" STOT". Is that your criteria, Balance?
Or if it is something else where does it kick in.
Just interested in getting others opinion on what might be good, bad, or downright ugly sales figures
Cheers:)
Miner
Technology on all fronts moves fast these days so it is critical for any company to get real sales traction and cement in competitive advantages - so it really does matter that PEB generate sales in the required time frame imo.
I have been with the stock a while and am happy to take management word and 'hype' for only so long.
I am not a short term investor but when I cannot reconcile management hype and words with actual results, I am happy to move on and leave for greener pastures.
Just my own investing style and view.
Seen too many companies with great promise over the years failing to live up to expectations - watching a company like Rakon for eg going backwards is not a fun thing!
Minerbarejet
10-11-2014, 12:36 PM
Technology on all fronts moves fast these days so it is critical for any company to get real sales traction and cement in competitive advantages - so it really does matter that PEB generate sales in the required time frame imo.
I have been with the stock a while and am happy to take management word and 'hype' for only so long.
I am not a short term investor but when I cannot reconcile management hype and words with actual results, I am happy to move on and leave for greener pastures.
Just my own investing style and view.
Seen too many companies with great promise over the years failing to live up to expectations - watching a company like Rakon for eg going backwards is not a fun thing!
Fair enough, everyone has a different threshold I guess, and as you say you can always dive back in if you need to.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TADucks.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TADucks.png.html)
Minerbarejet
10-11-2014, 12:52 PM
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TADucks.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TADucks.png.html)
That downtrend would be ducklination obviously.:)
Volume has been zilch lately. I cannot think of a time when price action has preceded a PEB announcement, can you?
Agree with you Miner, too much emphasis being placed on short term timing. They are knocking the ducks off, just be patient.
Correct me if im wrong but when I bought in just before the announcement last time,right about that time they made an announcement that someone had come on board(Id have to check to see who)but the sp opened higher(as you would expect),but then through the day dropped significantly.
Soon after the disappointing announcement came.
This may have been for some other reason(the drop),but it was always a bit strange to me.
That downtrend would be ducklination obviously.:)
Hmmm...could also be duckupulation
To be fair ,its just drifting (downwards)-(not major drops)--It may well be a case of ''once burned twice shy''---Guess we'll find out soon
Fair enough, everyone has a different threshold I guess, and as you say you can always dive back in if you need to.
And well, that’s the thing isn’t it, the upside potential for Pacific Edge is just so dammed enormous, as is the valuation range, hence Edison’s present determination of $0.46 to $3.91.
The prospective Kaiser Permanente contract covering 9.5M users is worth up to $30M p.a in revenues.
If PEB were to announce that they had signed up a United Health Group size HMO tomorrow with 85M users, the share price would probably blow right through $3.91 pretty quick.
Pacific Edge could quite easily be a $5 stock within just a couple of years, that makes the risk of being out way greater than being in, esp when the SP is so low in the range as at present.
Early probing retail sales to independent urologists matter five eights of bugger all, it’s progress toward seating the big wholesale HMO contracts that is important.
psychic
10-11-2014, 01:13 PM
I don't know when you last bought in Skid, but the last announcement was 16/9 when Charles Sitch joined the board.
There was no great change in SP that I can see?
I'm not sure that what you describe is very unusual for the sharemarket.
There was vol and price movement after the Colorectal announcement, but nothing out of the ordinary beforehand.
Balance
10-11-2014, 01:25 PM
And well, that’s the thing isn’t it, the upside potential for Pacific Edge is just so dammed enormous, as is the valuation range, hence Edison’s present determination of $0.46 to $3.91.
The prospective Kaiser Permanente contract covering 9.5M users is worth up to $30M p.a in revenues.
If PEB were to announce that they had signed up a United Health Group size HMO tomorrow with 85M users, the share price would probably blow right through $3.91 pretty quick.
Pacific Edge could quite easily be a $5 stock within just a couple of years, that makes the risk of being out way greater than being in, esp when the SP is so low in the range as at present.
Early probing retail sales to independent urologists matter five eights of bugger all, it’s progress toward seating the big wholesale HMO contracts that is important.
That's what they all say when it comes to upside vs downside - especially when it comes to speculative investments like mining compsnies too for eg.
I prefer to judge a company by its progress against indications and forecasts made by management and directors.
Edison is but another mouthpiece of a company - paid for by the company so do be careful.
80 cents down to 10 cents still mean nearly 90% of hard earned money down.
And just in case anyone is going to bring up the 'knocking' scene again, please don't with this poster - I make my view with the stock clear and act on my view.
MAC and Hancock, your presence on Truscreen thread would be appreciated for information.
You can join too if you wish Balance :D :D :D
Pacific edge tell us their strategy is to focus on HMO and LUG user programmes such that many of them, well 10% of them after five years to be precise, will adopt Cxbladder. They have eight sales staff at present for pursuing this purpose, and a quick read of their job descriptions confirms such.
What they don’t have or want is a small army of charismatic well dressed sales folk in fast cars, door knocking on Urologist doors and chasing retail sales, because they have determined that it’s much more prospective strategically to work with the big players, and a sales force of hundreds might otherwise be required for what might be of relatively small benefit.
If the latter was the case then early retail sales might be a more meaningful indicator, but it’s a moot point really, if Pacific Edge get as many as a few random retail sales, well ok, if they only get as many as a few random retail sales, well ok too, it doesn’t matter so much in the big picture.
They have allocated resources to gathering the loaves rather than to picking up the crumbs. And, one HMO loaf a year going forward is all Pacific Edge need to meet their goals.
Agreed MAC. 80/20 rule prevails.
For those who have no idea what NG said...
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
I don't know when you last bought in Skid, but the last announcement was 16/9 when Charles Sitch joined the board.
There was no great change in SP that I can see?
I'm not sure that what you describe is very unusual for the sharemarket.
There was vol and price movement after the Colorectal announcement, but nothing out of the ordinary beforehand.
It was when they announced the multiplan and Salt fund on board (in may 2014) and after starting up at opening,the SP dropped--I just couldnt figure out why this would happen with what appeared to be really good news--It was just before the sales announcement . bought on 23rd and bailed on the 28th to stop the blood (bought again later )
Like I said it could have been for different reasons but seemed strange to me ,especially since the sales announcement came just afterwards.
I dont know if its possible to pull the stats for that day ,but if you can have a look.
some said it was instos waiting for a bit of good news to unload and balance--anyway water under the bridge.
Minerbarejet
10-11-2014, 04:40 PM
It was when they announced the multiplan and Salt fund on board (in may 2014) and after starting up at opening,the SP dropped--I just couldnt figure out why this would happen with what appeared to be really good news--It was just before the sales announcement . bought on 23rd and bailed on the 28th to stop the blood (bought again later )
Like I said it could have been for different reasons but seemed strange to me ,especially since the sales announcement came just afterwards.
I dont know if its possible to pull the stats for that day ,but if you can have a look.The Annual report on 28th or thereabouts was expected. The Multiplan wasnt. Defying logic meant that punters bailed figuring that good news just before could only mean one thing - that the sales were not that flash and the price might dive. In this case they were correct. However, the release of good news before unknown sales figures should not be seen as an indicator for bad things to come. I really wouldnt like to be unloaded when the good figures finally arrive. Would make the last couple of years a big waste of time.
Its just a matter of risk management--if your quick you can buy back in once things seem on track--It would be a sacrifice of potential short term gains to get on an uptrend ,but protection against a further drop if sales are not good (or need more time to get on track)
Anyway..bit of optimism creeping back in atm.so 6 or one and half dozen of the other.:)
Guys, all that's happening is the price is lowering to the point where I am enticed to buy back in.
As soon as I buy I will let you all know and we'll be off like a rocket (a successful one :p).
Guys, all that's happening is the price is lowering to the point where I am enticed to buy back in.
As soon as I buy I will let you all know and we'll be off like a rocket (a successful one :p).
With an offer like that,how can we lose?
Klid-Ive noticed that XRO is making up a bit of ground--didnt you have some sort of theory on that?(in relation to PEB)
Klid-Ive noticed that XRO is making up a bit of ground--didnt you have some sort of theory on that?(in relation to PEB)
Ah the good old PEB/XRO parallel running chart! We humans love to make out patterns and information where there really is little/none. All it shows is a penchant for building castles in the sky (and then breaking them down) at plotted points in time. More a map of human psychology than stock performance!
For the squiggly lines, pull up a 2 year chart and compare XRO & PEB. Is it really that hard to do?
Yeah OK BFG, I just pulled up a 2 year chart and compared XRO and PEB. Quite easy, no need for the condescension . And what? Correlations. Are you reading it properly? I don't know what you're on about. What news has there been recently for PEB and what for XRO. I'm not going to explain it any more than that, if you can't see it, that's your shortsightedness.
Skid, I posted in the XRO thread about why I think it took off :) Monchillo was tiny but they have US customers which are now suddenly going to become XRO customers.
Yea I made a mention of that also--I was just having a good nature dig at your comment when you sold and bought about the time I was selling--might have just been a joke on your part---no harm done eh?
I suppose in a way it doesnt really matter what the SP does until the sales come out--unless you are entertaining the theory that some know ahead of time(which I must admit I do at times)
Other than that its just a barometer of how investors are feeling about the odds of good or bad sales.
Dont forget to set your computer up to give you an electric shock when the announcement comes:)
lol. You're absolutely right skid I do have said theory evidenced by the 2 year comparison and even more so by the 1 year one. No problem with what you said! :) I just don't understand how BFG can reference it and say there's nothing there - I conclude he's being an idiot on purpose -- I just don't see the point.
On a side note, a bit of a purchase today, on volume! Maybe that's due to it just catching up to PEB over the last few days? I say that tongue in cheek, but, seriously, it could be true. Even though the XRO news had nothing to do with PEB directly, and is probably hard for people to fathom how it has anything to do with them indirectly too.
AndyLP
12-11-2014, 09:08 AM
Hello again,
The other day I listened in on some of the earnings call from Exact Sciences over in the US. There were some interesting comments from management that I think are relevant for Pacific Edge and cxBladder going forward.
As I mentioned a while back, they have FDA approval and CMS coverage for their test, Cologuard, a screening tool for colon cancer.
Anyways, one of the major takeaways is, when their sales staff roll into clinics armed with those two actions, the sales process is fairly straight forward; They talk about one sales guy going on a run of 90 doctors before coming across one that said no. Here's an excerpt from the transcript:
"So, when we're walking in now and having the conversation it is far less clinical and a lot more frankly, operational... The feedback has overwhelmingly been supportive on a clinical message, they know this is the right things to do, it's 'how do we do it, how do we implement it?' "
The sales strategy does seem slightly different to Pacific Edge's in that EXAS are aiming squarely at primary care physicians. Of which they have a whopping 5,000 already registered, ready to and or currently ordering tests for patients. They want to eventually reach 200,000. Their sales team is 120 strong, with another 20 to add in the coming year.
I see that Cologuard has been added to the American Cancer Society Colorectal screening guidelines. It is the only bioMarker test listed, which is a pretty good advantage. The equivalent document for bladder cancer lists our old favourites, UroVysion, NMP22 and Immunocyt.
It also has a sensitivity of 92%, not bad.
Maybe I'm in the wrong stock! Best of breed and all that.
But seriously, I think PEB will be fine assuming Kaiser and CMS come through, officially. There's more diagnostic bioMarker tests around than ever, which to me, indicates a shift in awareness and practices. Its up to PEB to capitalize on it, which I think they will.
transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2601625-exact-sciences-exas-ceo-kevin-conroy-on-q3-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
Hello again,
The other day I listened in on some of the earnings call from Exact Sciences over in the US. There were some interesting comments from management that I think are relevant for Pacific Edge and cxBladder going forward.
As I mentioned a while back, they have FDA approval and CMS coverage for their test, Cologuard, a screening tool for colon cancer.
Anyways, one of the major takeaways is, when their sales staff roll into clinics armed with those two actions, the sales process is fairly straight forward; They talk about one sales guy going on a run of 90 doctors before coming across one that said no. Here's an excerpt from the transcript:
"So, when we're walking in now and having the conversation it is far less clinical and a lot more frankly, operational... The feedback has overwhelmingly been supportive on a clinical message, they know this is the right things to do, it's 'how do we do it, how do we implement it?' "
The sales strategy does seem slightly different to Pacific Edge's in that EXAS are aiming squarely at primary care physicians. Of which they have a whopping 5,000 already registered, ready to and or currently ordering tests for patients. They want to eventually reach 200,000. Their sales team is 120 strong, with another 20 to add in the coming year.
I see that Cologuard has been added to the American Cancer Society Colorectal screening guidelines. It is the only bioMarker test listed, which is a pretty good advantage. The equivalent document for bladder cancer lists our old favourites, UroVysion, NMP22 and Immunocyt.
It also has a sensitivity of 92%, not bad.
Maybe I'm in the wrong stock! Best of breed and all that.
But seriously, I think PEB will be fine assuming Kaiser and CMS come through, officially. There's more diagnostic bioMarker tests around than ever, which to me, indicates a shift in awareness and practices. Its up to PEB to capitalize on it, which I think they will.
transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2601625-exact-sciences-exas-ceo-kevin-conroy-on-q3-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
so I gather by your post that this is something they(PEB)should aspire to,a goal so to speak(and alot more of an informative goal than just some number ) Still a long way to go --how long will be alot clearer soon (It would sure be nice to hear a bit more about the strategy along with the sales numbers) We'll see
twotic
12-11-2014, 09:51 AM
so I gather by your post that this is something they(PEB)should aspire to,a goal so to speak(and alot more of an informative goal than just some number ) Still a long way to go --how long will be alot clearer soon (It would sure be nice to hear a bit more about the strategy along with the sales numbers) We'll see
Is PEB planning on providing more regular updates on test numbers, paid or otherwise in the near future? I recall David Darling discussing this possibility quite some time ago, but nothing seems to have come of it! Does my memory fail me? I presume at the very least, the AGM must have provided some sort of an update on this, so maybe one of the attendees can help out.
lol. You're absolutely right skid I do have said theory evidenced by the 2 year comparison and even more so by the 1 year one. No problem with what you said! :) I just don't understand how BFG can reference it and say there's nothing there - I conclude he's being an idiot on purpose -- I just don't see the point.
On a side note, a bit of a purchase today, on volume! Maybe that's due to it just catching up to PEB over the last few days? I say that tongue in cheek, but, seriously, it could be true. Even though the XRO news had nothing to do with PEB directly, and is probably hard for people to fathom how it has anything to do with them indirectly too.
Ya gotta admit ,its a bit of a far fetched correlation,but you seemed to have banked a bit on it so who am I to knock it.
That XRO volume is due to their purchase which seems to have turned the tide (market loves that sort of thing) IMO
Market sentiment in general for growth stocks could however have a much more tangible correlation so in that since its not so far fetched.
twotic
12-11-2014, 10:10 AM
This is a good little read to get a bit of an understanding of the Cologuard test before we make too many comparisons.
HyperLink:Facts, Myths, and the Stool DNA Test (http://www.medpagetoday.com/Gastroenterology/GeneralGastroenterology/47428)
Interesting article. The obvious question is: Is she being paid in any way by the accompany that produces FIT or anyone else in the sector? It is very rare these days that academics in the states are completely unbiassed when it comes to this sort of stuff.... It is simply the way it works, and has done for many years.....
twotic
12-11-2014, 10:14 AM
lol.... yes DD did discuss it when he was asked about it.
But it is not hard to work out why it is currently not been done and may not be for some time.
Are you saying he discussed it at the AGM? or are you saying my memory is correct in that he did (oat some point) discuss the likelihood of more regular updates in the past?
If at the AGM, an update would be appreciated.
psychic
12-11-2014, 10:24 AM
Interesting article. The obvious question is: Is she being paid in any way by the accompany that produces FIT or anyone else in the sector? It is very rare these days that academics in the states are completely unbiassed when it comes to this sort of stuff.... It is simply the way it works, and has done for many years.....
Worth reading the comments, link at the foot of the article
twotic
12-11-2014, 10:32 AM
Worth reading the comments, link at the foot of the article
Yes cheers. I clicked on that after I made my post... QED ;) Whether or not it takes away from her argument is open for debate.
I listened to to live broadcast and I am sure it was raised at the AGM and that it was discussed for days afterwards on this site.
DD did say that they would be considering more regular reporting............it's pretty obvious why this is not required at the moment and wont be for some time don't you think.
What Pacific Edge have quite consistently being saying on the matter, is that they may provide more regular updates when it is meaningful to do so.
What that means for some requiring a translation, is that it is entirely pointless offering regular updates on the number of tests performed for early sales because they are simply not all that important within the bigger picture of the strategic sales plan.
I wouldn't expect anything like quarterly updates until Pacific edge have two, three or perhaps more wholesale type HMO/CMS agreements under their belt, it would be a totally pointless exercise in the interim, as the early retail sales figures are in no way representative of progress.
psychic
12-11-2014, 10:34 AM
I listened to to live broadcast and I am sure it was raised at the AGM and that it was discussed for days afterwards on this site.
DD did say that they would be considering more regular reporting............it's pretty obvious why this is not required at the moment and wont be for some time don't you think.
Really? I seem to recall the video stream not working.
What did he say?
twotic
12-11-2014, 10:38 AM
What Pacific Edge have quite consistently being saying on the matter, is that they may provide more regular updates when it is meaningful to do so.
What that means for some requiring a translation, is that it is entirely pointless offering regular updates on the number of tests performed for early sales because they are simply not all that important within the bigger picture of the strategic sales plan.
I wouldn't expect anything like quarterly updates until Pacific edge have two, three or perhaps more wholesale type HMO/CMS agreements under their belt, it would be a totally pointless exercise in the interim, as the early retail sales figures are in no way representative of progress.
Thanks Mac, from a neutral point of view, it may be the case you and Snapit are essentially saying the same thing, just from two different perspectives. Cheers.
psychic
12-11-2014, 10:54 AM
Whoa - twitchy this morning! Thanks for the advice.. (that's WRITE by the way)
I simply meant audio as part of the video send, but look, if you can't tell me what it was he said, and your memory isn't so good, then don't worry.
lol
Thanks Mac, from a neutral point of view, it may be the case you and Snapit are essentially saying the same thing, just from two different perspectives. Cheers.
Not really, but I would simply offer that the Pacific Edge strategy of entering into user programmes and rolling some of them over into agreements will provide much greater prosperity, than would putting hundreds of cheesy sales staff in slick cars. It just seems to be damned good marketing practice to me.
Pacific Edge told us in the last report that they are targeting LUG user programmes also now.
A much better metric for assessing performance at the present time is a determination of how many user programmes are presently active. Many will be occurring in parallel and some of those should all come to fruition at about the same time.
twotic
12-11-2014, 10:58 AM
Not really, but I would simply offer that the Pacific Edge strategy of entering into user programmes and rolling some of them over into agreements will provide much greater prosperity, than would putting hundreds of cheesy sales staff in slick cars. It just seems to be damned good marketing practice to me.
Pacific Edge told us in the last report that they are targeting LUG user programmes also now.
A much better metric for assessing performance at the present time is a determination of how many user programmes are presently active. Many will be occurring in parallel and some of those should all come to fruition at about the same time.
What I meant was you have both essentially answered my question, just worded it differently (due to obvious differences in positions re PEB).
Appreciate the information Mac. I shall watch with interest.
How many user programmes are active right now by the way?
AHRQ draft report out at this end of this month, correct? Have you an automatic email update or something that will advise you when the report is publicly available?
psychic
12-11-2014, 10:58 AM
Thanks Mac, from a neutral point of view, it may be the case you and Snapit are essentially saying the same thing, just from two different perspectives. Cheers.
Yes. The difference being that one understands why this is so, the other does not.
Guess we will find out soon enough who is which..
Schrodinger
12-11-2014, 11:20 AM
Not really, but I would simply offer that the Pacific Edge strategy of entering into user programmes and rolling some of them over into agreements will provide much greater prosperity, than would putting hundreds of cheesy sales staff in slick cars. It just seems to be damned good marketing practice to me.
Pacific Edge told us in the last report that they are targeting LUG user programmes also now.
A much better metric for assessing performance at the present time is a determination of how many user programmes are presently active. Many will be occurring in parallel and some of those should all come to fruition at about the same time.
This isnt the 80s MAC. Whether they have, 'slick' sales staff or any sales staff is irrelevant. What matters is the company can sell its product. If slick sales people can do that what the problem. What I would suggest is they have less than slick sales staff who can't sell. We shall see of course.
You either believe they can sell or they can't.
Minerbarejet
12-11-2014, 11:25 AM
Miner bashes head on brick wall and slumps, crying uncontrollably, to the ground.
Well we will have to wait and see,
One thing is for sure, and that is Pacific Edge spent most of the HY15 reporting period recruiting and training sales staff, presently totalling eight now, all very well experienced staff too if you check on LinkedIn, probably just now coming up to speed about here and just starting to introduce themselves to client management.
It’s the next reporting period, FY15, whereby we may start to see LUG user programmes starting to come to fruition, but not the pending HY15 reporting to 30th September.
If anyone is expecting more than 1,000 to 5,000 sales at HY15, probably at the lower end, then they are IMO just expressing business naivety. But, that is not to say that Pacific Edge will not have made good progress, they may very well indeed have made very good progress along the commercialisation plan.
An assessment of the path toward meeting the five year goal, at this time, can only really be assessed by the number of user programmes and the prospective value of the user programmes that may be rolled over.
This isnt the 80s MAC. Whether they have, 'slick' sales staff or any sales staff is irrelevant. What matters is the company can sell its product. If slick sales people can do that what the problem. What I would suggest is they have less than slick sales staff who can't sell. We shall see of course.
You either believe they can sell or they can't.
Wow I actually agree with MAC on this one! Sales staff are a HUGE cost when rolling out. Why do that when you can go for trials/user agreements? Especially for a startup (this isn't a total free cash fest!)
Balance
12-11-2014, 12:35 PM
Not really, but I would simply offer that the Pacific Edge strategy of entering into user programmes and rolling some of them over into agreements will provide much greater prosperity, than would putting hundreds of cheesy sales staff in slick cars. It just seems to be damned good marketing practice to me.
Pacific Edge told us in the last report that they are targeting LUG user programmes also now.
A much better metric for assessing performance at the present time is a determination of how many user programmes are presently active. Many will be occurring in parallel and some of those should all come to fruition at about the same time.
Anything is better than the management hyping up their contracts with the networks (read them again if you disagree) but then going all quiet about sales.
Simply not good enough imo.
Dentie
12-11-2014, 12:55 PM
At the AGM next year...I am going to suggest to DD that they deviate from their official reporting requirements and, instead, release a daily sales report to the market at the end of every day's trading. Then the market will be able to do their value calculations every single day and decide whether to either sell ... or buy.
Anything for peace!!
Schrodinger
12-11-2014, 12:56 PM
That would be great and save a few people from losing a fortune. When can this start.
Dentie
12-11-2014, 12:57 PM
unfortunately BFG the company is rolling out costly sales staff as well as expensive user trials...... with little sales to show for it.
So are you saying the product itself is not measuring up Snapiti?
Balance
12-11-2014, 01:09 PM
So are you saying the product itself is not measuring up Snapiti?
I think Snapiti is making a fair point - what is the company's real sales strategy? No point hiring expensive sales people if it is about user programs.
I sense PEB is weathering heavy seas trying to sell direct - hence the emphasis on user programs.
Schrodinger
12-11-2014, 01:16 PM
So doing some back of the envelope calcs, PEB needs $99.9M more sales to reach $100M by 2018? I hope they have a lot of tests done at the next announcement.
Dentie
12-11-2014, 01:17 PM
I think Snapiti is making a fair point - what is the company's real sales strategy? No point hiring expensive sales people if it is about user programs.
I sense PEB is weathering heavy seas trying to sell direct - hence the emphasis on user programs.
To who...Patients or Urologists (& related so-called Professionals)?
Balance
12-11-2014, 01:22 PM
To who...Patients or Urologists (& related so-called Professionals)?
Both.
Dis. I talked to one of PEB's executives last year and PEB was certainly not talking user programs at that time!
Balance
12-11-2014, 01:28 PM
I actually like the product and like the marketing strategy of combining the user programs with on the ground relationship building sales staff.
I just think the company is not being up front with investors on how difficult, time consuming and costly it is turning out to be to fully commercialize the product.
But I guess if I am right all will continue to be reveled in the next few sales report....... I just think it is poor form from management to deliberately ramp user programs prospect and continue to fail on converting them to sales. This is not a new thing for the company as some of their user programs where completed in 2013 and led to no sales.
Exactly the same reason why I sold the bulk of my shares in PEB. Directors were very quiet at AGM about actual sales.
It’s 2019, and yes, that $100M is very much quite a humble five year goal given the size of the market at 2,000,000 x 550 = $1.1B in annual revenues, esp given Pacific Edge have the best clinically performing process on offer and a first mover advantage with this type of product.
It’s 2019, and yes, that $100M is very much quite a humble five year goal given the size of the market at 2,000,000 x 550 = $1.1B in annual revenues, esp given Pacific Edge have the best clinically performing process on offer and a first mover advantage with this type of product.
Furthermore, just the presently active user programme with Kaiser Permanente alone has them on track, if not ahead of their commercialisation plan. With 9.5M users and prospectively worth $30M per annum, all Pacific Edge require is just one such user programme roll over each year to meet their goal.
Minerbarejet
12-11-2014, 02:08 PM
you surely can't be riding the first mover advantage wave still Mac.
The first mover advantage was taken over 10 years ago by another product and company.
In reality PEB are late to the game that's another reason why commercialization is going so slowly.Miner rises slowly to his feet, whacks his head and falls down again.
twotic
12-11-2014, 02:15 PM
Furthermore, just the presently active user programme with Kaiser Permanente alone has them on track, if not ahead of their commercialisation plan. With 9.5M users and prospectively worth $30M per annum, all Pacific Edge require is just one such user programme roll over each year to meet their goal.
Hi Mac, would you mind explaining to novices like me, how the Kaiser user programme works? The way I read your post, it seems to imply a commercial arrangement whereby PEB will receive payment for the tests conducted under the user programme. Is that the case?
Hi Mac, would you mind explaining to novices like me, how the Kaiser user programme works? The way I read your post, it seems to imply a commercial arrangement whereby PEB will receive payment for the tests conducted under the user programme. Is that the case?
Happy to give it a try Twotic, Hancock’s might like to chip in also, it’s all quite different from the health system in NZ, takes some time to get ones head around it, did me anyway.
Kaiser Permanente as an HMO offer both medical insurance policies to their 9.5M users, and also, they own and operate their own regional medical healthcare facilities.
In NZ we have say Southern Cross with a few facilities beyond what the DHB’s offer, although in the US there is not the governmental DHB system in the background. HMO’s like KP perform both a Southern Cross and a DHB type function if you like.
Kaiser Permanente have their own in house clinicians, including 109 urologists and 700 oncologists, mostly spread across California and some in Colorado, located within 38 of their own hospitals.
So, an adoption of Cxbladder by KP is more than just a sign up with an insurer, rather it represents an adoption of a Cxbladder diagnostic process policy by those clinicians, and probably by further clinicians who service KP members who do not have in house KP clinicians geographically close by, Oregon, Hawaii, Georgia etc.
Miner rises slowly to his feet, whacks his head and falls down again.
Miner goes out and buys a safety helmet and then everything's ok--because he knows despite all this noise the sales report is going to be the deciding factor for now.
Me thinks you can expect the same with the commentary from the coming results.
I would like to see 1000 -2000 US sales this report but foresee 400-500 US sales which will be further confirmation that things are going way slower than planned.
Share price will adjust accordingly.
So do we have any other sales estimates that would indicate they are on track or not. Hancock? (Or Mac,although from your posts you dont seem to place as much importance on sales for this report) Im not sure the market will buy that though.
So for all you well informed and novices out there --What sales figure should we be looking for? (to prove they are on track)
twotic
12-11-2014, 02:56 PM
Happy to give it a try Twotic, Hancock’s might like to chip in also, it’s all quite different from the health system in NZ, takes some time to get ones head around it, did me anyway.
Kaiser Permanente as an HMO offer both medical insurance policies to their 9.5M users, and also, they own and operate their own regional medical healthcare facilities.
In NZ we have say Southern Cross with a few facilities beyond what the DHB’s offer, although in the US there is not the governmental DHB system in the background. HMO’s like KP perform both a Southern Cross and a DHB type function if you like.
Kaiser Permanente have their own in house clinicians, including 109 urologists and 700 oncologists, mostly spread across California and some in Colorado, located within 38 of their own hospitals.
So, an adoption of Cxbladder by KP is more than just a sign up with an insurer, rather it represents an adoption of a Cxbladder diagnostic process policy by those clinicians, and probably by further clinicians who service KP members who do not have in house KP clinicians geographically close by, Oregon, Hawaii, Georgia etc.
OK, thanks for that. So with respect to the KP user programme, would it be accurate to say PEB will not directly generate any income from it, rather it could be a subsequent commercial arrangement with KP, should results from the user programme warrant it, that would subsequently generate income?
By the way, I have been chatting with minor. There may be a few tid bits from our conversation that may interest you. Feel free to PM him or me if you like.
Snow Leopard
12-11-2014, 02:59 PM
Hi Mac, would you mind explaining to novices like me, how the Kaiser user programme works? The way I read your post, it seems to imply a commercial arrangement whereby PEB will receive payment for the tests conducted under the user programme. Is that the case?
Have you read this announcement (https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/254465)?
So Kaiser think that this CxBladder thing may be useful to them in reducing the costs.
However Kaiser do not want to make a decision based on the little available information to them and so are putting up a couple of thousand patients to conduct a bigger trail and where they can a close eye on the goings on.
At the end of this the Kaiser number crunchers will sit down and work out what it is worth to them and then go back to PEB and say we will buy it (or not) at $X a test etc, and then the haggling will recommence.
PEB will almost certainly not be paid anything for their costs for this UP.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
OK, thanks for that. So with respect to the KP user programme, would it be accurate to say PEB will not directly generate any income from it, rather it could be a subsequent commercial arrangement with KP, should results from the user programme warrant it, that would subsequently generate income?
By the way, I have been chatting with minor. There may be a few tid bits from our conversation that may interest you. Feel free to PM him or me if you like.
Yes correct, KP are presently trialing Cxbladder for around six months at no cost to them, as I understand.
KP get some free molecular diagnostic testing and an opportunity to evaluate both the clinical and commercial benefits directly for themselves.
PEB get to work closely with the KP clinicians, build a working relationship, demonstrate the value propositions, jointly assess the clinical and commercial results, prospectively entrench a Cxbladder process, and prospectively at the end of the user programme see KP adopt Cxbladder as their bladder cancer policy diagnostic tool of choice.
Ta, quite a lot going on in the background, AHRQ draft report release discussion also.
twotic
12-11-2014, 03:19 PM
Appreciate the info Mac, Hancocks, Snapit, and Tiger.
It was the direct economic benefits of the KP user programme that I was questioning. I think that has been answered now.
Good luck to PEB, this user programme may well be make or break for them by the sounds. End of 2015 a long way off to wait, but SP price movements before will be interesting :)
Any body want to take a punt on what the next cap raise price will be (and the concordant statement that goes along with it)?
I'm very interested in that cashburn rate that will be revealed in 2 1/2 weeks ;)
Appreciate the info Mac, Hancocks, Snapit, and Tiger.
It was the direct economic benefits of the KP user programme that I was questioning. I think that has been answered now.
Good luck to PEB, this user programme may well be make or break for them by the sounds. End of 2015 a long way off to wait, but SP price movements before will be interesting :)
Yep, and it's a user programme that costs Pacific Edge less than $200k for what will IMO, more likely than not, become a up to a $30M p.a long run agreement.
Good management, good strategy, good product, good people.
Any body want to take a punt on what the next cap raise price will be (and the concordant statement that goes along with it)?
I'm very interested in that cashburn rate that will be revealed in 2 1/2 weeks ;)
Why don't you?
That's why I want to see at least $1m of trading revenue for the half, because in absence of that, it will be difficult for them to reach their ambitious goal of making a profit in FY15 (They should need at least 10m, probably more like 12-13).
And then yes that could well be on the cards. If so my estimate is: $0.57 - $0.75.
Snow Leopard
12-11-2014, 03:47 PM
Yep, and it's a user programme that costs Pacific Edge less than $200k for what will IMO, more likely than not, become a up to a $30M p.a long run agreement.
Good management, good strategy, good product, good people.
No way will the cost of this UP to Pacific Edge be 'less than $200k'.
The $30M is up for discussion.
'Good management, good strategy, good product, good people' sound like pure marketing drivel. :)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Snow Leopard
12-11-2014, 03:51 PM
Why don't you?
That's why I want to see at least $1m of trading revenue for the half, because in absence of that, it will be difficult for them to reach their ambitious goal of making a profit in FY15 (They should need at least 10m, probably more like 12-13).
And then yes that could well be on the cards. If so my estimate is: $0.57 - $0.75.
I seem to recall DD saying that PEB would be cash flow positive by a certain date at some point, but I can not currently find the source.
Does anybody know where the article/announcement is, what it actually said?
Or was I dreaming?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
twotic
12-11-2014, 03:54 PM
I seem to recall DD saying that PEB would be cash flow positive by a certain date at some point, but I can not currently find the source.
Does anybody know where the article/announcement is, what it actually said?
Or was I dreaming?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Presumably the $550 figure should be taken with a grain of salt. Is that where your doubts arise Tiger, conditional on KP signing an arrangement with PEB?
Show us your calculations Tiger and I would be more than happy to demonstrate why and where you may or may not be incorrect.
would be a pleasure, Mac
Snow Leopard
12-11-2014, 04:25 PM
Show us your calculations Tiger and I would be more than happy to demonstrate why and where you may or may not be incorrect.
would be a pleasure, Mac
2000 patients, $100 a test. So at one test each that is $200K.
But PEB will spend sales time (time is precious, time is money, thyme is a herb that grows in gardens) and other resources on this user program whilst it operates, and in the follow up.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Snow Leopard
12-11-2014, 04:34 PM
Presumably the $550 figure should be taken with a grain of salt. Is that where your doubts arise Tiger, conditional on KP signing an arrangement with PEB?
The $550 figure is but one variable of many in the future cash flow and profitability of this company.
Which is why the Edison research on this company quotes a value from $0.46 to $3+.
Play the trends, have PEB as a small part of a portfolio of highly speculative shares, or the speccy with a good selection of 'boring' stocks:
Just do not bet your house on it.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Microsloth
12-11-2014, 04:52 PM
Happy to follow PEB thread, even happier no longer be a holder.....
At the edge apparently ? (Some PEB from Otago Uni Magazine)
http://www.otago.ac.nz/otagomagazine/issue39/features/otago080116.html
From the AGM: “Sufficient funds in place for planned development and growth strategy in existing markets”
20M cash in hand + Callahan cash = no prob’s for a couple of years ahead.
I walked away from the AGM considering that there might though be a capital raising for expansion into Asia, depending just on how hard and fast they may decide to go with it, and/or whether they licence as in Australia, or IMO build their own lab in Singapore (or thereabouts).
I do hope so, would be quite happy to take up a rights issue for that actually, especially whilst the SP is in the lower end of that $0.46 to $3.91 valuation range.
6464
Dentie
12-11-2014, 05:01 PM
The $550 figure is but one variable of many in the future cash flow and profitability of this company.
Which is why the Edison research on this company quotes a value from $0.46 to $3+.
Play the trends, have PEB as a small part of a portfolio of highly speculative shares, or the speccy with a good selection of 'boring' stocks:
Just do not bet your house on it.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Oh God...why didn't you tell me this months ago. I've already put my house on it (maxed out the mortgage), the wife, the kids and next years salary!! I have total confidence they will deliver.
Dentie
12-11-2014, 05:09 PM
Oh God...why didn't you tell me this months ago. I've already put my house on it (maxed out the mortgage), the wife, the kids and next years salary!! I have total confidence they will deliver.
The reason I did this was because they were entering the US market. Some reckon a Kiwi outfit would never get traction in the US...but then I thought ... "If the All Blacks can get reverence - then why can't PEB?"
Oh boy, what have I done....
Schrodinger
12-11-2014, 05:13 PM
Any body want to take a punt on what the next cap raise price will be (and the concordant statement that goes along with it)?
I'm very interested in that cashburn rate that will be revealed in 2 1/2 weeks ;)
Could be Xero like! This is why sales matter people.
Minerbarejet
12-11-2014, 05:18 PM
The reason I did this was because they were entering the US market. Some reckon a Kiwi outfit would never get traction in the US...but then I thought ... "If the All Blacks can get reverence - then why can't PEB?"
Oh boy, what have I done....There is a spare section of brick wall over here, Dentie, if you need it.:)
Schrodinger
12-11-2014, 05:23 PM
The reason I did this was because they were entering the US market. Some reckon a Kiwi outfit would never get traction in the US...but then I thought ... "If the All Blacks can get reverence - then why can't PEB?"
Oh boy, what have I done....
Going to the US because they have lots of patients and we are great is not a good strategy. Just rocking up and thinking your fantastic NZ product will sell is silly. They will either be very successful in the USA or crash and burn there is no middle ground.
Oh God...why didn't you tell me this months ago. I've already put my house on it (maxed out the mortgage), the wife, the kids and next years salary!! I have total confidence they will deliver.
Well...It may take a little longer than predicted..but hey!..you could pawn the tent:)
The reason I did this was because they were entering the US market. Some reckon a Kiwi outfit would never get traction in the US...but then I thought ... "If the All Blacks can get reverence - then why can't PEB?"
Oh boy, what have I done....
Wait a minute--Your not really serious are you dent? Dang!.... this is getting Couta like (no offense Couts...but ...dang!
NT001
12-11-2014, 06:18 PM
this from DD just days after the announcement of the last cap raising 29th Oct 2013. Lets call it the beginning of the capital raise road show
“It’s very important for us that we build a robust portfolio of products. If you're just dependent on one product, there's an inherent risk for the investors, but more importantly when you get in the market, you want to be able to have a one stop shop. We see that as very important in our company.”
“We've got some pretty robust revenue earning targets and plans for getting these products into the market. So next year (2014) we're targeting two new products to market .”
two new products to market......... really..... almost the end of the year....... or was this just more timely hype to help raise capital..... looks like it.
I seem to remember PEB publicly announced a few weeks ago that a colorectal product had received patent approval in Japan and we were all saying "Gee whizz, what a surprise, PEB has come up with a product ready for market that we hardly even knew about and is already planning to commercialise it in partnership with an established local partner". As opposed to using the same sales strategy as in the US for CxB that so many of us are now weeping and wailing about amid all this angst about mortgaging the house and wife and bailing out of PEB. Some of us seem to have completely forgotten about that. Or am I imagining it all?
From the AGM: “Sufficient funds in place for planned development and growth strategy in existing markets”
I'll go for a 45 cent cap raise as it will be at a 15%discount to the 5 day VWAP ;)
Minerbarejet
12-11-2014, 06:53 PM
Well...It may take a little longer than predicted..but hey!..you could pawn the tent:) Dont worry, Dentie is growing moneymakers in his glasshouse.:)
Do try and keep the pawn out of it, skid, there are children here:)
Balance
12-11-2014, 07:00 PM
which one are you refering to
1. the tens of thousands of tests.
2. the $100 m in sales in 5 years
3. the we are already beating off takeover offers
4. the this capital raise will fund us through to profitability
5. the multiple new products to market in 2014.
All the more reason why it is so critical PEB gives a proper update at the results release as to the above.
To me it is now about the management's credibility - hype is fine (all companies do it to a greater or lesser extent) but delivery is now the issue as far as the majority of investors are concerned.
Xerof
12-11-2014, 07:03 PM
Gee, I see it's trolls day at the PEB thread today. They must be in a pub somewhere between Kapiti and PN, drinking the Tui's.
Market for PEB appears a little better bid lately - I wonder if thats the reason for a concerted, repetitive, monotonous dissing effort on NO new information
I believe the year end's in late December, not today.
They recently mentioned THREE new products being targeted for market, not two
They report to their timetable, not the troll's
psychic
12-11-2014, 07:08 PM
Gee, I see it's trolls day at the PEB thread today. They must be in a pub somewhere between Kapiti and PN, drinking the Tui's.
Market for PEB appears a little better bid lately - I wonder if thats the reason for a concerted, repetitive, monotonous dissing effort on NO new information
I believe the year end's in late December, not today.
They recently mentioned THREE new products being targeted for market, not two
They report to their timetable, not the troll's
No no, Snapiti is a real Seer. He KNOWS
psychic
12-11-2014, 07:09 PM
Desperate bunch of goons. They sense somethings up eh. Poor pets
Dentie
12-11-2014, 07:26 PM
do you get on well with the in laws.......... I hope so as you might end up living with them..... happy days:p
Now you play nice Snapiti...my in laws are all living in a better place (all 6 of them) and have been for years. I'm not ready to join them yet :(
Dentie
12-11-2014, 07:27 PM
Going to the US because they have lots of patients and we are great is not a good strategy. Just rocking up and thinking your fantastic NZ product will sell is silly. They will either be very successful in the USA or crash and burn there is no middle ground.
Well that certainly tells me a lot about the US Schrodinger. (I think I've written about them before...)
Minerbarejet
12-11-2014, 07:39 PM
Well isnt this nice - a long and involved debate about Peb from most of the usual participants. Well done everyone.
Even xerof made a brief cameo appearance.:)
psychic
12-11-2014, 08:20 PM
You do know what a fact is right?
Minerbarejet
12-11-2014, 08:46 PM
There is an obvious money making opportunity here. Just a minute while I go and set up the ring and sell a few tickets.
Sorry about the metal chairs but they are the best I can do at short notice. There are about three ringside left atm.
Sorry no eftpos.:)
waddis
12-11-2014, 09:06 PM
Thanks Hancocks....best post of the day!!
Minerbarejet
12-11-2014, 09:09 PM
AND, whilst waiting for the next post, you could try this.
6466Is your foot supposed to change direction before or after you have fallen off the chair?.:)
Snow Leopard
12-11-2014, 09:33 PM
AND, whilst waiting for the next post, you could try this.
6466
Of course, if you draw the six in a clockwise direction (i.e. from the middle out) your foot does not change direction.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
couta1
12-11-2014, 09:34 PM
Just read the thread for the day thought I was on the Snakk thread by mistake maybe its just groundhog day instead.
Dentie
13-11-2014, 06:28 AM
just stating the facts... I know it is hard to listen to something you love being discussed in a honest negative way.
Ummmm... are you in a betrothed state Snapiti?
winner69
13-11-2014, 08:44 AM
PEB seems to be following in the footsteps of Arborgen, Darlings previous baby.
Gone from 'hundreds of thousands of trees' to 'tens of thousands of tests' has a familiar ring.
Scientists definition of successful commercialisation is to bring science to market, profit is not in their language.
Great things that scientists in NZ do, be it at PEB, Otago, Callaghan Institute etc. some wonderful science making the world a better place.
I think the likes of Darling should be knighted, for his ability to raise funds from the private sector for this fantastic research to continue. Long may it continue.
barney
13-11-2014, 12:24 PM
An interesting new appointment.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/nick-wong/a/469/107?trk=pub-pbmap
An interesting new appointment.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/nick-wong/a/469/107?trk=pub-pbmap
Yes, interesting, previously of the Ludwig Cancer Research Institute.
Isn’t it the Ludwig institute that Pacific Edge are partnered with for progressing melanoma diagnostics ?
http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/us-grants-pacific-edge-patent-for-melanoma-detection/
Schrodinger
13-11-2014, 12:50 PM
PEB seems to be following in the footsteps of Arborgen, Darlings previous baby.
Gone from 'hundreds of thousands of trees' to 'tens of thousands of tests' has a familiar ring.
Scientists definition of successful commercialisation is to bring science to market, profit is not in their language.
Great things that scientists in NZ do, be it at PEB, Otago, Callaghan Institute etc. some wonderful science making the world a better place.
I think the likes of Darling should be knighted, for his ability to raise funds from the private sector for this fantastic research to continue. Long may it continue.
This is a very NZ centric problem. Championing how smart they are but little commercial value. The USA rightly or wrongly calls a company a success when it actually grows to a large size. They also invest a lot of time into finding out which companies will actually scale. This is not done by the average investor in NZ. They get wowed by flashy tech and automatically assume it will sell globally.
The USA also has the advantage of a massive domestic market and it doesn't really matter if they can export their products as they will grow very large at home.
Buy side looking mighty thin. Anyone else ready for the next leg down? If so, just follow the lower bollinger band, it will tell you where to buy ;)
psychic
13-11-2014, 02:29 PM
Wounds?? Yesterday?? You are a real puzzle Snapiti.
Anyways - look
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/257620
They've started someone to count the money now!
(And when time permits, count the number of tests and let non holders know)
Snow Leopard
13-11-2014, 02:36 PM
Wounds?? Yesterday?? You are a real puzzle Snapiti.
Anyways - look
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/257620
They've started someone to count the money now!
(And when time permits, count the number of tests and let non holders know)
They want to know where it is disappearing to :D
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Buy side looking mighty thin. Anyone else ready for the next leg down? If so, just follow the lower bollinger band, it will tell you where to buy ;)
How? It's a lagging indicator?
Schrodinger
13-11-2014, 02:52 PM
They want to know where it is disappearing to :D
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Must be those flashy sales guys
Dentie
13-11-2014, 02:54 PM
and you know who they will all blame now if it all comes crumbling down:D
Oh my God...that is more cash being burned...why on earth would they take on a CFO?
What must they be thinking...couldn't Dave have at least asked Yvonne to do this on the kitchen table after dinner?
winner69
13-11-2014, 03:29 PM
Oh my God...that is more cash being burned...why on earth would they take on a CFO?
What must they be thinking...couldn't Dave have at least asked Yvonne to do this on the kitchen table after dinner?
Would think that's a few hundred thou (plus) job
But needed when you go from counting in 'tens of thousands' to'hundreds and thousands'
Dentie
13-11-2014, 04:10 PM
can think of better things to do on the kitchen table after dinner.
We don't all play scrabble Snapiti...!
We don't all play scrabble Snapiti...!
I think he was going more along the lines of Cluedo...
Minerbarejet
13-11-2014, 04:20 PM
monopoly is my game of choiceThought you might be good at Snap
pierre
13-11-2014, 04:33 PM
"Commenting on the appointment, Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David
Darling says "We are very pleased to have someone of Kate's calibre taking up
this role. Kate will bring international business experience, finance and
leadership skills to further build the capability of the Company's senior
management team and Kate's corporate business experience in the USA, Asia and
UK will be of particular relevance as Pacific Edge looks to further
commercialise its molecular diagnostic technology including Cxbladder, in
those markets."
Why would they need someone of Kate's capability unless they have or will soon have some US, Asian and UK currency sales to deal with? Just saying....
winner69
13-11-2014, 04:40 PM
"Commenting on the appointment, Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David
Darling says "We are very pleased to have someone of Kate's calibre taking up
this role. Kate will bring international business experience, finance and
leadership skills to further build the capability of the Company's senior
management team and Kate's corporate business experience in the USA, Asia and
UK will be of particular relevance as Pacific Edge looks to further
commercialise its molecular diagnostic technology including Cxbladder, in
those markets."
Why would they need someone of Kate's capability unless they have or will soon have some US, Asian and UK currency sales to deal with? Just saying....
The hidden message, a slip of the tongue
Global domination, here we come unless free trade agreements stuff it up for non US companies
Balance
13-11-2014, 04:55 PM
The hidden message, a slip of the tongue
Global domination, here we come unless free trade agreements stuff it up for non US companies
Well, PEB is certainly changing its story - it was always going to be US first, second and third until it is a huge success. Then the rest of the world will follow automatically.
okane
13-11-2014, 04:59 PM
Why would they need someone of Kate's capability unless they have or will soon have some US, Asian and UK currency sales to deal with?
Fake it till you make it.
pierre
13-11-2014, 05:11 PM
just treating the shareholder to some more blind faith and just before a very poor sales announcement........ with out a doubt this is a well constructed story
Oh dear - such cynicism!
We only have to wait a couple of weeks until the 28 November when all will be revealed for the half year.
It will be interesting to see how they explain the appointment of a CFO if there ain't any beans to count.....
TimmyTP
13-11-2014, 05:15 PM
Thought you might be good at Snap
The devil made me post this: http://www.museumofplay.org/online-collections/images/Z002/Z00246/Z0024637.jpg
Xerof
13-11-2014, 05:24 PM
Oh dear - such cynicism!
We only have to wait a couple of weeks until the 28 November when all will be revealed for the half year.
It will be interesting to see how they explain the appointment of a CFO if there ain't any beans to count..... Whilst I see this appointment as a strengthening positive for the future, I don't think you will find many of her fingerprints on the upcoming HY accounts.
pierre
13-11-2014, 05:31 PM
Whilst I see this appointment as a strengthening positive for the future, I don't think you will find many of her fingerprints on the upcoming HY accounts.
I'm sure there wont be ANY of her fingerprints. She doesn't start till 17 November - not much chance of influencing the results to 30 September!
Minerbarejet
13-11-2014, 05:33 PM
"Commenting on the appointment, Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David
Darling says "We are very pleased to have someone of Kate's calibre taking up
this role. Kate will bring international business experience, finance and
leadership skills to further build the capability of the Company's senior
management team and Kate's corporate business experience in the USA, Asia and
UK will be of particular relevance as Pacific Edge looks to further
commercialise its molecular diagnostic technology including Cxbladder, in
those markets."
Why would they need someone of Kate's capability unless they have or will soon have some US, Asian and UK currency sales to deal with? Just saying....
Errr, there was an announcement re the Japanese and Colorectal prognosis patent, perhaps this may be closer to commercialisation
in Japan than elsewhere. They did say cxColorectal was due to be released soon but, hey, I'm not so sure they said exactly where this would happen. Most likely NZ first I would have thought .
There sure is a strong Otago uni connection here-stands to reason I guess.
There are tons of things a financial officer does besides just sales--there is planning-outgoings as well as incomings -budgeting,etc,etc.
SP seems to be in a holding pattern despite all the pros and cons which seems logical as things are more of less in limbo till the results.
But haveing said that the buy side is looking pretty thin --asks @84 equal all the buys down to 77 (its an ever changing animal though)
Yeah I think the main thing driving the SP is the sales so well have a calm drift down until the results and then a who-knows.
I am still in two minds about whether to purchase before or after.
And the CFO certainly isn't bad news. Although it will make it a lil harder to get that profitability until she herself becomes profitable ;)
Yeah I think the main thing driving the SP is the sales so well have a calm drift down until the results and then a who-knows.
I am still in two minds about whether to purchase before or after.
And the CFO certainly isn't bad news. Although it will make it a lil harder to get that profitability until she herself becomes profitable ;)
Thats easy--just look and see what XRO is doing :)
Haha. Good point, will do! - it's kinda like looking at the depth though, you have to know when it's relevant!
Minerbarejet
14-11-2014, 06:55 AM
Does anyone else get the feeling this outfit might be going into asia sooner rather than later?
According to the website cxColorectal is market ready.
Balance
14-11-2014, 07:14 AM
Does anyone else get the feeling this outfit might be going into asia sooner rather than later?
According to the website cxColorectal is market ready.
If they do, they will need another capital raising.
Rolling out the new products - expensive and time consuming exercise.
Agreed---First things first..
If they do, they will need another capital raising.
Rolling out the new products - expensive and time consuming exercise.
Wouldn't mind a rights issue whilst the SP is down here.
Being a prognostic test though, it's just as likely, probably more so, to be taken up as a companion test by one of the big Japanese pharma’s.
Such deals typically come with an up front cash payment and milestone payments thereafter, could be a nice substantial cash windfall for Pacific Edge with little effort, whilst pursuing Cxbladder elsewhere.
NT001
14-11-2014, 10:53 AM
Without being an expert on such deals, I can't really see that taking Colorectal into Japan in partnership with an established player, very likely one of the big Japanese ppharmas as MAC suggests, would involve major outlay by PEB. Yes, some form of cash/milestone payments like the deal with Cellmid but it ought to be pretty much self-supporting and revenue-positive - no need for armies of salespeople or big promotional costs or special labs, provided they find the right partner.
I reckon NT that the announcement from September must have put them on the radar in Japan, requires the pharma's to have a suitable companion drug under development of course, perhaps there are quite often better and better performing drugs being developed on an ongoing basis.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/201125.pdf
Wouldn't mind a rights issue whilst the SP is down here.
Really? You'd like MORE dilution while the SP is suppressed?
Seriously weird...
Xerof
14-11-2014, 11:51 AM
You're only 'diluted' if you fail to take up your rights.
Seriously factual...
Really? You'd like MORE dilution while the SP is suppressed?
Seriously weird...
Not at all, I do quite like rights issues actually, an opportunity to pick up shares at a nice discount to VWAP is often a bonus, especially whilst the shareprice hovers in the low end of the incumbent analyst valuation range of $0.46 to $3.91. I was entirely satisfied with the last rights issue at 55c when the stock was undervalued at that time too.
But look, that's the difference between a long term investors perspective, accumulating shares in a well managed company with good long term prospects and well some other sort of view I guess. Each to their own
Although having said that, Pacific Edge have enough cash on the books for a couple of years ahead, revenues aside even, and are much better financially securely placed than most startup companies at a similar stage.
I think they are more likely to go with a partner in Japan for Cxcolorectal. We have most probably seen the last rights issue, last year.
The rally off the bottom (reversal -end of bear cycle??) paused for breath around the long term resistance (EMA200) which is common..
However..the 91c resistance wasn't broken convincingly as it had the EMA200 just above it forming a double barrier and now Mr Market is saying the pause is being seen as too long, and the technicals are weakening, triggering sell signals.
PEB going below 85c now sees another technical double barrier above the price,, the short term resistance line and the EMA50 resistance line both at 85c..Any short term positive movements (very risky) would be PEB closing above 87c and any positive long term (preferred risk option) action would be PEB price closing above 95c.. Indicating the pause (bull market correction) is over...
Going the other way there is strong support at the bull/bear line (78c)..If this line is broken the bear cycle resumes and the bottom (65c) becomes the focus of attention..
Short to Medium term TA investors won't be worried or be wasting time analysing the fundamental "ifs and buts" as they would be out of PEB by now..awaiting buy signals
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB13112014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB13112014.png.html)
MAC, I will love to see that cashburn rate compared to revenues. I doubt they will have cash to last all of 2015 if sales have not seriously picked up.
Only two weeks away now...
MAC, I will love to see that cashburn rate compared to revenues. I doubt they will have cash to last all of 2015 if sales have not seriously picked up.
Only two weeks away now...
I went to school so I can actually do arithmetic, doubt's got nothing to do with their retained cash position.
No one is forcing you to invest, we can compare notes again in a few years, if Pacific Edge is a $5 stock, and I think that has a good probability of being so, I won't at all say I told you so, that's not my style.
Happy to go over the merits of Pacific Edge as an investment in detail if you wish though, I've all the idle time in the world at present.
winner69
14-11-2014, 02:03 PM
MAC, I will love to see that cashburn rate compared to revenues. I doubt they will have cash to last all of 2015 if sales have not seriously picked up.
Only two weeks away now...
I reckon cash for expenses + capex to be $16m for FY15. If income (including grants) only $3m (just a guess) cash burn then $13m ......leaving $7m left of the $20m
Roll on FY16 if income goes to $10m they should have cash to start FY17 off before things really get rolling and PEB a cash cow
Income a guess, surely they can do $3m this year ....anything more and cash lasts longer.
We'll be right
How my arithmetic mac
I reckon cash for expenses + capex to be $16m for FY15. If income (including grants) only $3m (just a guess) cash burn then $13m ......leaving $7m left of the $20m
Roll on FY16 if income goes to $10m they should have cash to start FY17 off before things really get rolling and PEB a cash cow
Income a guess, surely they can do $3m this year ....anything more and cash lasts longer.
We'll be right
How my arithmetic mac
Looks close to my figures Winner, and generally in line with what Pacific Edge have told us.
On the revenue side, in that two year timeframe, there's prospectively the rollover of the KP user programme, plus anymore prospective user programmes that may come along, plus potentially a partnership agreement on Cxcolorectal and/or a melanoma test.
Any one of those several revenue propositions alone may provide that $10M in revenue cover.
Nothing's for sure just like any business startup there are always risks, for now though, the prospects seem to look ok to me, certainly a lot better than many, or even most, of the pre-profitability offerings on the NZX at present.
regards, Mac
Snow Leopard
14-11-2014, 02:29 PM
Show us your calculations Tiger and I would be more than happy to demonstrate why and where you may or may not be incorrect.
would be a pleasure, Mac
you seem to have forgotten your promise :(.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Really? You'd like MORE dilution while the SP is suppressed?
Seriously weird...
A rights issue right now would signal a failure. I can tell you that it won't happen - at least for a year, and I would say it won't happen at all, ever. If it did -- I certainly would be dropping this company from my watch.
Thanks for your post Hoop, I would be very interested in hearing from you when you think there's some buy signals ;)
I reckon cash for expenses + capex to be $16m for FY15. If income (including grants) only $3m (just a guess) cash burn then $13m ......leaving $7m left of the $20m
Roll on FY16 if income goes to $10m they should have cash to start FY17 off before things really get rolling and PEB a cash cow
Income a guess, surely they can do $3m this year ....anything more and cash lasts longer.
We'll be right
How my arithmetic mac
How do you know the expense figure of 16mil is right?---and how many tests would have to be paid for, for the 3 mill income?
Not doubting your arithmetic--just wondering how you arrived at those figures you are using in your arithmetic
Genuine apologies Tiger, I did miss your post buried amongst all the mindless knocker rubbish, not hard to do on this thread.
I’m being quite conservative with the price point until we are advised otherwise by Pacific Edge, noting that Forbar and Edison both think it should be quite a bit higher than $550.
The KP contract may well be worth between $10 to $20M in revenues within the first 18 months, trending upward from there, happy to share a basis for that reasoning on a more detailed level.
kind regards, Mac
Consider the prospective Kaiser Permanente contract;
Number of KP members: 9.5M
Population of the USA: 315M
Potential number of US tests p.a: 2M
Anticipated Cxbladder price point: US$550
Prospective annual KP contract = (9.5/315) x 2 x 550 = US$33M revenues per annum
This figure probably represents a maximum contract take up, but still even a conservative US$10 to US$20M estimate would still represent a meaningful expectation.
This one contract alone by itself will make Pacific Edge profitable. Five to ten of these contracts won over the duration of the five year plan, and there’s the $100M goal met.
A rights issue right now would signal a failure. I can tell you that it won't happen - at least for a year, and I would say it won't happen at all, ever. If it did -- I certainly would be dropping this company from my watch.
Thanks for your post Hoop, I would be very interested in hearing from you when you think there's some buy signals ;)
I think his third paragraph alluded to above 87 a buy signal (but a risky one)and 95 and above a much less risky buy signal
The way Im reading it -you are giving up potential short term gains (with the associated high risk of loss) for a more stable uptrend--You are making your profit on the 95 and up with an established trend instead of throwing the dice at this level (and from what I gather ,they are loaded against you)---just my take as a novice --Hoop or KW could verify
winner69
14-11-2014, 03:19 PM
How do you know the expense figure of 16mil is right?---and how many tests would have to be paid for, for the 3 mill income?
Not doubting your arithmetic--just wondering how you arrived at those figures you are using in your arithmetic
From last years accounts and from what PEB have sort of indicated, esp a slide in one of their presentations that gave some detail to FY15 expenses.
My estimate and that's what I am using in my DCF .... could be something completely different for all we know.
Genuine apologies Tiger, I did miss your post buried amongst all the mindless knocker rubbish, not hard to do on this thread.
I’m being quite conservative with the price point until we are advised otherwise by Pacific Edge, noting that Forbar and Edison both think it should be quite a bit higher than $550.
The KP contract may well be worth between $10 to $20M in revenues within the first 18 months, trending upward from there, happy to share a basis for that reasoning on a more detailed level.
kind regards, Mac
Its the ''trending upward from there'' where the safe money is (its less, but safer $ IMO) Once that ''IF'' and ''When'' is out of way its much clearer sailing.
Like many ,I will be watching with interest.
winner69
14-11-2014, 03:36 PM
well they are not the best at sticking to the story
Well my numbers are worse than those of the much touted Edison Report
Edison has cash burn of $8m in 15 and 16 (revenues of $2.6m in 15 and $14m in 16). So $4m left heading in FY17
No cap raising BFG
Note: My numbers assume everything goes to plan .... or else this could turn into an never ending story of 'next year we will be profitable'
Balance
14-11-2014, 03:54 PM
Well my numbers are worse than those of the much touted Edison Report
Edison has cash burn of $8m in 15 and 16 (revenues of $2.6m in 15 and $14m in 16). So $4m left heading in FY17
No cap raising BFG
Note: My numbers assume everything goes to plan .... or else this could turn into an never ending story of 'next year we will be profitable'
Don't joke about things like that!
I like the risky, cheap... low price buy signals :) before the uptrend starts.
Well it would be a bigger pay day,but like you say,riskier--we were there not long ago and no uptrend
And dont forget the 77cents support which if broken heads down to the 65cent level:(
But of course the major factor is the sales figures which will most likely trump everything one way or the other--keep a close eye though as last time there was a bit of room to sell,before the real slide (if thats the case)
How it would work the other direction ..well who knows as it has'nt been tested (by sales at least)
If it turns out to be middle of the road ,then that will be interesting--I personally feel theres a bit of pessimism factored in at this stage,so could rise--but what do I know --Im just a conservative investor who got it wrong on the last sales report,had what I like to think of as the courage to sell and accept the loss, and managed to recoup a bit on the resulting bottom feeding before another sell---- Im sitting this one out
Minerbarejet
15-11-2014, 09:43 AM
Do we take these for granted?:)
From notes to financial statements Annual Report 2014
4. CXBLADDER RESEARCH REBATE
During the financial year the Group received revenue from the Australian Tax Office for a Research
and Development tax incentive rebate claim for the year ended 31 March 2012. Due to the time taken
between submission of the rebate claim and the receipt of funds, this revenue is recognised on a cash
basis in accordance with NZ IAS 18. A further claim has been submitted for the 2013 financial year.
2 years behind?
5. GRANTS RECEIVED
During the 2014 financial year the Company submitted a claim for partial reimbursement of costs with
New Zealand Trade & Enterprise in line with their funding agreement (2013: Grant received from New
Zealand Trade & Enterprise).
Paid when?
A further claim has been submitted to Callaghan Innovation (formerly the
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment) which relates to a postgraduate intern and summer
student.
Again, Paid when?
The Company was also awarded a Callaghan Innovation Growth Grant commencing 1 January
2014. A claim for January to March 2014 has been submitted to Callaghan Innovation in line with this
agreement.
$375.000 presumably paid in this Half Year with the remaining $1,125,000 paid in Full Year
All conditions of the grants have been complied with.
Crystal Ball
15-11-2014, 10:58 AM
Do we take these for granted?:)
From notes to financial statements Annual Report 2014
4. CXBLADDER RESEARCH REBATE
During the financial year the Group received revenue from the Australian Tax Office for a Research
and Development tax incentive rebate claim for the year ended 31 March 2012. Due to the time taken
between submission of the rebate claim and the receipt of funds, this revenue is recognised on a cash
basis in accordance with NZ IAS 18. A further claim has been submitted for the 2013 financial year.
2 years behind?
5. GRANTS RECEIVED
During the 2014 financial year the Company submitted a claim for partial reimbursement of costs with
New Zealand Trade & Enterprise in line with their funding agreement (2013: Grant received from New
Zealand Trade & Enterprise).
Paid when?
A further claim has been submitted to Callaghan Innovation (formerly the
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment) which relates to a postgraduate intern and summer
student.
Again, Paid when?
The Company was also awarded a Callaghan Innovation Growth Grant commencing 1 January
2014. A claim for January to March 2014 has been submitted to Callaghan Innovation in line with this
agreement.
$375.000 presumably paid in this Half Year with the remaining $1,125,000 paid in Full Year
All conditions of the grants have been complied with.
Ahh yesssss !!
winner69
15-11-2014, 02:18 PM
Ahh yesssss !!
In Feb the story was 'Callaghan Innovation has announced a Growth Grant for Pacific Edge that will
provide up to $4.5 million spread over three years with additional funding
for a further two years available on review.'
As snap says some was claimed to end of March
Whether it is $1.5m a year I to sure as there were som conditions attached to it
Jeez they could go on collecting grants and having the odd cap raising while only making minimal sales for years
The grants can only be used for research and $300,000 of their cash on hand needs to be spent to qualify.
great for the long term,but it is not a ''kitty'' that cash can be used for operating expenses ,or anything else besides research.
They still have to operate as a business (and make money through sales)
Minerbarejet
15-11-2014, 02:49 PM
The grants can only be used for research and $300,000 of their cash on hand needs to be spent to qualify.
great for the long term,but it is not a ''kitty'' that cash can be used for operating expenses ,or anything else besides research.
They still have to operate as a business (and make money through sales)Quite rightly so, but the end result is after they have spent 300,000 any further R&D expenses up to the limit are taken care of. Takes a lot of pressure off having to get sales to cover any contemplated additional R&D expenses.
winner69
15-11-2014, 02:49 PM
Do we take these for granted?:)
From notes to financial statements Annual Report 2014
4. CXBLADDER RESEARCH REBATE
During the financial year the Group received revenue from the Australian Tax Office for a Research
and Development tax incentive rebate claim for the year ended 31 March 2012. Due to the time taken
between submission of the rebate claim and the receipt of funds, this revenue is recognised on a cash
basis in accordance with NZ IAS 18. A further claim has been submitted for the 2013 financial year.
2 years behind?
5. GRANTS RECEIVED
During the 2014 financial year the Company submitted a claim for partial reimbursement of costs with
New Zealand Trade & Enterprise in line with their funding agreement (2013: Grant received from New
Zealand Trade & Enterprise).
Paid when?
A further claim has been submitted to Callaghan Innovation (formerly the
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment) which relates to a postgraduate intern and summer
student.
Again, Paid when?
The Company was also awarded a Callaghan Innovation Growth Grant commencing 1 January
2014. A claim for January to March 2014 has been submitted to Callaghan Innovation in line with this
agreement.
$375.000 presumably paid in this Half Year with the remaining $1,125,000 paid in Full Year
All conditions of the grants have been complied with.
Those grants - $291k was recognised as revenues in FY14. I assume this covers the submitted claims to March 14. If not actually paid the outstandings would be in Trade Debtors.
That Callaghan Growth $4.5m. Are you sure it is claimable in even amounts spread over 3 years? Maybe skid knows?
I dont know the details,but if its claimed as income --its would have to be income*.....*to be used only for research.(of course future real income could then not have to be used for research and used for other things)
The income* is certainly not to be dismissed--but for now I reckon the big game in town is what everyone is waiting for ...Sales.
I think Time is a large factor here--at what point on the line of time is PEB in terms of its goal.(as Mac has observed -investors in general are an impatient bunch)
If the sales disappoint even a share with a promising future will get punished--Even if it shouldnt--Investors are obviously worried about that ATM--(but of course that doesnt mean it will happen)
Dentie
15-11-2014, 07:26 PM
I dont know the details,but if its claimed as income --its would have to be income*.....*to be used only for research.(of course future real income could then not have to be used for research and used for other things)
The income* is certainly not to be dismissed--but for now I reckon the big game in town is what everyone is waiting for ...Sales.
I think Time is a large factor here--at what point on the line of time is PEB in terms of its goal.(as Mac has observed -investors in general are an impatient bunch)
If the sales disappoint even a share with a promising future will get punished--Even if it shouldnt--Investors are obviously worried about that ATM--(but of course that doesnt mean it will happen)
Dare I say...even if the sales disappoint and the impatient bunch start selling...I suspect the patient long termers will be poised with cash in hand .... I can't wait either way.
Minerbarejet
15-11-2014, 07:38 PM
I dont know the details,but if its claimed as income --its would have to be income*.....*to be used only for research.(of course future real income could then not have to be used for research and used for other things)
The income* is certainly not to be dismissed--but for now I reckon the big game in town is what everyone is waiting for ...Sales.
I think Time is a large factor here--at what point on the line of time is PEB in terms of its goal.(as Mac has observed -investors in general are an impatient bunch)
If the sales disappoint even a share with a promising future will get punished--Even if it shouldnt--Investors are obviously worried about that ATM--(but of course that doesnt mean it will happen)The big problem at the moment is what amount of sales will disappoint, what will be hohum, what will be encouraging and what will put us into orbit. 1000, 2500, 3338, 7000 are my guesses based on what I believe to be the situation, this belief gleaned from these threads, PMs and all the material I can get my hands on.
One mans disappointment level may very well be ecstacy for another and about all that will happen is the share price will find the middle ground for us wherever that may be.
NT001
15-11-2014, 09:18 PM
The big problem at the moment is what amount of sales will disappoint, what will be hohum, what will be encouraging and what will put us into orbit.
One mans disappointment level may very well be ecstacy for another and about all that will happen is the share price will find the middle ground for us wherever that may be.
Yes, Miner, and then of course there are those including non-holders who will say the announced results may have seemed okay but you can't believe anything said by DD and the chairman - the buggers have probably secretly sold their shares and done a runner to Brazil, leaving us facing a cap raising.
I think those 1000-7000 numbers are about right. If it is $550 a test then 1818 would be $1m (my target).
Have Pacific Edge actually ever released the numbers of their tests sold, and will they be doing that in the upcoming report? Or will that number not be provided and instead just trading revenue?
Now there is coverage on Pacific Edge in the public domain, the market will be expecting what the insto’s and the analysts have in their spreadsheets, just as for any other stock;
Forbar FY15: $2.8M
Edison FY15: $2.32
There is a third analyst outlier at FY15 $3.82, but putting that one aside.
The expectation thus becomes a smudge under half the average of the two analysts full year estimates in allowing for the second half revenues probably being higher than the first, thus,
HY15 market anticipation = (2.8 + 2.32)/2 = $1.28 adjusted ---> = $0.9M
No, the SP won’t move on the revenues release, whether it comes in at $0.5 or $1.5M, no one will give a rats aside from the particularly fickle, and there has been an enormous flush out of the fickle over the last six months, they are all sitting on the sidelines, good riddance too.
It’s the commentary that may move the SP upward toward valuation, simply due to affirmation of the five year goal, progress against the commercialisation plan, and the outlook for FY15.
blobbles
15-11-2014, 10:46 PM
Come on people, let's have a little fun and post a guess of the total US sales (total number of CX Bladder tests fully paid). To the closest goes the glory!
I guess 450.
are you serious.......... or just ramping again.
Sure to get plenty of share price movement if sales are near the bottom of your range and it wont be up.
Remember, this is the guy who think Directors are not accountable to shareholders, that cap raises at depressed prices are GREAT and that revenues don't matter one iota (it's different this time Snaps, don't ya know???).
I pick 270 tests (that have ACTUALLY BEEN PAID FOR IN FULL). :)
Crystal Ball
16-11-2014, 07:49 AM
Come on people, let's have a little fun and post a guess of the total US sales (total number of CX Bladder tests fully paid). To the closest goes the glory!
I guess 450.
Snapiti thinks its 500, BFG only 270- I reckon 600.
Balance
16-11-2014, 08:44 AM
Snapiti thinks its 500, BFG only 270- I reckon 600.
If they are not selling 1,000 a month at this stage, might as well pack it in and sell the company to someone who knows how to market a revolutionary disruptive product.
Remembering that they now have a potential patient base of tens of millions in US, Australia and NZ from over a year ago, sales staff have been employed and money spent on promotion, marketing and publicity.
6,000 as a minimum.
Now there is coverage on Pacific Edge in the public domain, the market will be expecting what the insto’s and the analysts have in their spreadsheets, just as for any other stock;
Forbar FY15: $2.8M
Edison FY15: $2.32
There is a third analyst outlier at FY15 $3.82, but putting that one aside.
The expectation thus becomes a smudge under half the average of the two analysts full year estimates in allowing for the second half revenues probably being higher than the first, thus,
HY15 market anticipation = (2.8 + 2.32)/2 = $1.28 adjusted ---> = $0.9M
No, the SP won’t move on the revenues release, whether it comes in at $0.5 or $1.5M, no one will give a rats aside from the particularly fickle, and there has been an enormous flush out of the fickle over the last six months, they are all sitting on the sidelines, good riddance too.
It’s the commentary that may move the SP upward toward valuation, simply due to affirmation of the five year goal, progress against the commercialisation plan, and the outlook for FY15.
...
are you serious.......... or just ramping again.
Sure to get plenty of share price movement if sales are near the bottom of your range and it wont be up.
What do you mean MAC that the SP won't move on the revenue release but it will on the commentary? How are you going to differentiate between the two when they occur simultaneously anyway?
It's time for cold hard facts; not airy-fairy commentary that probably cannot be relied upon.
Agree with Snapiti for once, not on the numbers, but what will happen to the SP if they come in low.
0.5m DOWN. 1.5m UP. I don't think the market is sitting on the sidelines at the moment awaiting some... commentary.
Dentie
16-11-2014, 10:09 AM
Come on people, let's have a little fun and post a guess of the total US sales (total number of CX Bladder tests fully paid). To the closest goes the glory!
I guess 450.
I'm guessing 127 tests in the US that have been paid for.
NT001
16-11-2014, 10:24 AM
No, the SP won’t move on the revenues release... It’s the commentary that may move the SP upward toward valuation, simply due to affirmation of the five year goal, progress against the commercialisation plan, and the outlook for FY15.
I would have to agree because there wouldn't be a lot of investors apart from a few on this thread who actually undertstand the intricacies of PEB's market development situation, and the actual figures will be largely meaningless to a lot of people. This is still a speculative stock and hardly ready for analysis using normal methods. A couple of articles in the ODT and Herald and the explanatory comments of DD and Swann (i.e. commentary) will probably have more impact than the release of figures that have to be explained in detail to the uninitiated. Even then, PEB will remain speculative and its SP will remain largely subjective. I've placed my bet and am sticking. Some of the cynics will drop out, the believers will remain in. The evidence seems to suggest that FY 2015 will give the analysts a much better steer. Yes, that means waiting another year.
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