PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

Crumbs, all you TA’s sound a bit like a bunch of kids on the way to an xmas pennant, sorry I mean pageant, but then who knows what shiny new thing will arrive for xmas, Pacific Edge might even flag something ?

Hope you we'nt referring to my post Mac--Thats about as fundamental as it gets---(ok -TAs not looking to bad as well:)

[Minerbarejet]

Ill elaborate a bit just to show where Im coming from

It has the same Market cap as PEB,yet has 20Mil in revenue and growing fast--a global best practice product-supurb distribution partners(which has always been my biggest complaint with PEB--not going in with a known partner to distribute)
And a 60%recurring revenue stream,independant of equipment sales(They sell medical equipment) They have just expanded to a number of European countries-- Its NAN on the OZ market (currently @112)
Now every share carries risk and PEB is an interesting share(with a fun,facebook style thread)but for me comparing the 2 made it clear where I was going at this stage.(I could always go pear shaped and then Id probably get fleeced to within an inch of my life:)
Rather than down ramping Im just presenting something to compare too---It was an ''either or''situation for me.
Best of Luck--(we all want PEB to succeed in the end--Its will (would) be good for NZ)It just may take awhile

Disc.--I didnt root this out myself -It was brought to my attentionIn the course of your subsequent rooting around with sterilization of sonic probes with hydrogen peroxide did you happen to notice on the website that 9% of condoms leak. Hard to conceive really.

[skid]

It was someone else that brought it to my attention.
If you dont think the fundamentals are good compared to PEB--thats fine.
Ive just noticed that its easy to get so wrapped up in one share that its possible to lose perspective.
Not sure where your going with the condoms but Im not suggesting everyone sell--but it cant hurt to keep our eyes open.
Just why is it that you believe PEB is undervalued?
Their goal is 100mil in 5yrs--NAN 300mil and in terms of market --its global--its cash flow positive and soon to be profitable.
I realize that a fair number have alot more invested than just money--but just giving another perspective----Ive looked at them side by side and for me ,it was no contest.---doesnt mean for sure you wont have the last laugh(tinged with bitterness?) Best of Luck
Disc-Its of no advantage to me if the SP drops--my ''spec'' $ is all invested (only keep a small % for this sort of thing)

[Balance]

It was someone else that brought it to my attention.
If you dont think the fundamentals are good compared to PEB--thats fine.
Ive just noticed that its easy to get so wrapped up in one share that its possible to lose perspective.
Not sure where your going with the condoms but Im not suggesting everyone sell--but it cant hurt to keep our eyes open.
Just why is it that you believe PEB is undervalued?
Their goal is 100mil in 5yrs--NAN 300mil and in terms of market --its global--its cash flow positive and soon to be profitable.
I realize that a fair number have alot more invested than just money--but just giving another perspective----Ive looked at them side by side and for me ,it was no contest.---doesnt mean for sure you wont have the last laugh(tinged with bitterness?) Best of Luck
Disc-Its of no advantage to me if the SP drops--my ''spec'' $ is all invested (only keep a small % for this sort of thing)

The AGM presentations by NAN (Nanosonics) are worth going through for PEB investors and shareholders.

PEB talks about the 'J' curve in its revenues and earnings profile, and NAN is an excellent example of the 'J' curve at play.

Whether PEB will do a 'J' curve will not be known until 2017/18.

Certainly the Australian market was not prepared to re-rate NAN until there were clear indicators of growth in revenues and cashflow.

PEB has the benefit of relatively inexperienced NZ investors (few biomed companies in NZ) and shareholders imo who are rating the company on promises.

[winner69]

Talking of J-curves here's my version

Forecasts based on the promise of $100m in sales in 5 years and my estimates as to what that costs to achieve. No other rationale than that. I only did a DCF to see what it might be worth if promise delivered.

Great looking chart eh

Even so at 12% discount rate I only come up with 94 cents .... 15% discount rate only 63 cents

[winner69]

But then again from what Pacific Edge are talking about we should construct a series of J-curves .... one for each for the new products

[Casino]

It was someone else that brought it to my attention.
If you dont think the fundamentals are good compared to PEB--thats fine.
Ive just noticed that its easy to get so wrapped up in one share that its possible to lose perspective.
Not sure where your going with the condoms but Im not suggesting everyone sell--but it cant hurt to keep our eyes open.
Just why is it that you believe PEB is undervalued?
Their goal is 100mil in 5yrs--NAN 300mil and in terms of market --its global--its cash flow positive and soon to be profitable.
I realize that a fair number have alot more invested than just money--but just giving another perspective----Ive looked at them side by side and for me ,it was no contest.---doesnt mean for sure you wont have the last laugh(tinged with bitterness?) Best of Luck
Disc-Its of no advantage to me if the SP drops--my ''spec'' $ is all invested (only keep a small % for this sort of thing)

Medtech apples and biotech oranges.

You may say the value proposition is different, and biotech is a much higher risk, higher reward game.
https://atpbio.wordpress.com/2011/09/22/lessons-from-medtech/

[Casino]

Chief executive David Darling said while the company's US lab could handle 260,000 tests at present, it could be expanded to meet the opportunity of two million tests.
''It's the scale and accessibility which is paramount to success,'' he said.


http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/313336/pacific-edge-shareholders-told-be-patient

[Balance]

Chief executive David Darling said while the company's US lab could handle 260,000 tests at present, it could be expanded to meet the opportunity of two million tests.
''It's the scale and accessibility which is paramount to success,'' he said.


http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/313336/pacific-edge-shareholders-told-be-patient

Hype merchant at work surely?

Cannot sell 100 tests a month and talking big about 2m tests?

[winner69]

J-curves are often used to represent how private equity cash flows develop

Initial up front cash to buy businesses and then a bit more to fix them in various ways and then the big pay day when they sell / IPO them.

PEB J-curve from an investors perspective maybe the takeover/merger is the big payday. Still believe this is best outcome for investors.

Not that much over a $1 would be a 400% plus return .....who could complain about that?

[Balance]

J-curves awe often used to represent how private equity cash flows develop

Initial up front cash to buy businesses and then a bit more to fix them in various ways and then the gid pay day when they sell / IPO them.

PEB J-curve from an investors perspective maybe the takeover/merger is the big payday. Still believe this is best outcome for investors.

Not that much over a $1 would be a 400% plus return .....who could complain about that?

You may have hit the nail on the head, W69.

If you compare it with DIL however, the real money will be made by the Americans who 'rescued' the company and bought in at 12c - 4000% plus return at this stage. Those who got in at the IPO only makes 400% and those who bought at $8.00 are sitting waiting for payday.

[Derain]

Triage is out :)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/258630

[Harvey Specter]

Triage is out :)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/258630Great, but reading the press release, I have no idea what the difference is between the two products. THey both seem to test if you have cancer within a couple of days from a urine sample.

[golden city]

nothing mention about the market size of this product..

[golden city]

share price barely move dissapointing

[klid]

Yer, so they've just launched CxBladder Triage.

[nextbigthing]

share price barely move dissapointing

Forward looking market has factored this in I guess.

[Snow Leopard]

In the USA, the Southern California Permanente Medical Group (SCPMG) will undertake a 2000 patient evaluation of Cxbladder Triage in their specific clinical settings to determine its efficiency and effectiveness. The SCPMG is part of Kaiser Permanente, which is one of the largest integrated healthcare providers in the USA with more than 9 million registered clients.

SO
is this the thing thar was announced in August (which did not mention Triage) OR
another trial OR
Another PEB mistake OR
What?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[psychic]

SO
is this the thing thar was announced in August (which did not mention Triage) OR
another trial OR
Another PEB mistake OR
What?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger[/FONT]

But the KPSC announcement did not say the trial was for Cxbladder Detect did it?

If this can triage out 80% of Urologist referrals for a full workup I can understand KP's interest...

[Minerbarejet]

Is it possible they could run both trials at the same time with the same 2000 patients?

[NT001]

I find it interesting that this announcement is being greeted with so much cynicism by some of the doubters, and that they are disappointed it hasn't immediately been read, analysed and absorbed by thousands of investors and sent the SP soaring back to the 170s within about half an hour. Come on! PEB did say it was coming before year-end and people on this thread were demanding impatiently "where is it then?" Well, it's here, before year end as promised, and it adds to what is becoming quite an impressive suite of products ready for market. Not many people - not even brokers - read NZX anmnouncements minute by minute, and even they won't start jumping up and down over this and shouting "buy, buy, buy". Building up investor confidence in PEB will be a gradual process, but this is a very good sign. A bit of media publicity may help the SP as well. I'm certainly holding.

[BFG]

Don't let the momo boys fool you, this was already well priced in. In fact, tge market would have been disappointed if this wasn't done as promised in 2014!

[Biscuit]

"Cxbladder Triage complements the first molecular diagnostic test Cxbladder Detect"

Sounds like it is a new product but I don't understand how it is different to Cxbladder Detect?

[Harvey Specter]

share price barely move dissapointingThey said a week ago that it was coming before the end of the year - so it was effectively already announced.


"Cxbladder Triage complements the first molecular diagnostic test Cxbladder Detect"

Sounds like it is a new product but I don't understand how it is different to Cxbladder Detect?What do they charge for the new test. I would have though if you were sending in a sample, you would just get both tests done at the same time (price permitting). Or are they targetting different customers (i.e unknown whether cancer vs known to have cancer)?

[Tsuba]

Possibly a little harsh to ban someone for 24 hours for this, but in the battle for forum peace there will be casualties.

STMOD

Snaps has gone fishing. ;)

[Snow Leopard]

Is it possible they could run both trials at the same time with the same 2000 patients? Cxbladder detect to determine if bladder cancer exists and triage to determine the severity and what action is required for the percentage of patients who have tested positive to detect.

I thought it was the other way round.
Triage up front to filter out those unlikely to need further investigation and Detect for further down the track.

So do we have a study of Triage, of Detect or of both?

It changes the picture that was painted in August

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Biscuit]

I would have though if you were sending in a sample, you would just get both tests done at the same time (price permitting). Or are they targetting different customers (i.e unknown whether cancer vs known to have cancer)?

I would guess (and it is just a guess) that it is the same basic technology detecting the same molecular targets in the same way, so little point in doing both tests?

[skid]

Possibly a little harsh to ban someone for 24 hours for this, but in the battle for forum peace there will be casualties.

STMOD


Goodness me--This is starting to remind me of that scene in the Blues Brothers when they went to see the ''Penguin'':):):)-----with all due respect:):)

[Harvey Specter]

I would guess (and it is just a guess) that it is the same basic technology detecting the same molecular targets in the same way, so little point in doing both tests?But tehre must be something different or else they are the same. The last think I would want is a peice of paper saying 'we think you have something so please send in another sample so we can run a similar test again'.

Edit: My understanding is 'Detect' detects the cancer and 'Triage' tells you how bad that cancer is. Surely if the Detect test is positive, then Triage should be run automatically.
Edit 2: Appears I have it back to front ( http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/PE-2014-AGM-PRESENTATION-21Aug14.pdf ). So Triage appears to be a more basic (and cheaper?) test than Detect?

[Xerof]

Is it possible they could run both trials at the same time with the same 2000 patients? We have now had two announcements on a KP run trial. In August they announced an agreement had been signed to run a trial. It did not state which particular product was to be trialled, but some people have assumed it to be CxBladder Detect. Today they have launched Triage, and reiterated that the trial (this time clarifying which of the suite is being trialled - CxBladder Triage) will commence shortly.

There is only one trial. A quick email to the company has confirmed this

As you were - stand at ease

[nextbigthing]

Snaps has gone fishing. ;)

Maybe he went Tsuba diving.

You like that one Minor? :)

[Biscuit]

But tehre must be something different or else they are the same. The last think I would want is a peice of paper saying 'we think you have something so please send in another sample so we can run a similar test again'.

Edit: My understanding is 'Detect' detects the cancer and 'Triage' tells you how bad that cancer is. Surely if the Detect test is positive, then Triage should be run automatically.
Edit 2: Appears I have it back to front ( http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/PE-2014-AGM-PRESENTATION-21Aug14.pdf ). So Triage appears to be a more basic (and cheaper?) test than Detect?

Looks to me like they both "detect" the cancer by the same technology, (the same molecular markers). One can tell you that you either do or don't have it and the other can tell that you either don't or do have it? Sounds more like a marketing advance than a science advance?

[psychic]

The difference explained

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/about-cxbladder/

[Harvey Specter]

The difference explained

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/about-cxbladder/So one tells you that you dont have it. If you fail that test (ie. get a not negative which is different to a positive), then you need to be retested to see if you do have it. I reiterate, why not do both at the same time.

[Biscuit]

So one tells you that you dont have it. If you fail that test (ie. get a not negative which is different to a positive), then you need to be retested to see if you do have it. I reiterate, why not do both at the same time.

Why not just do Cxbladder-detect, that seems to provide the same information as triage and a bit more. what does Cxbladder-triage tell you that detect does not?

[Harvey Specter]

Why not just do Cxbladder-detect, that seems to provide the same information as triage and a bit more. what does Cxbladder-triage tell you that detect does not?I think Triage gives you a more accurate negative.

[Minerbarejet]

The difference explained

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/about-cxbladder/Thanks psychic.
Good clear description of the interrelationship.

[Minerbarejet]

Why not just do Cxbladder-detect, that seems to provide the same information as triage and a bit more. what does Cxbladder-triage tell you that detect does not?
Triage gives an accurate negative result, detect gives an accurate positive result.

Given the oft quoted 10 percent of patients with haematuria having some form of bladder cancer it would be best to get the 90 percent of true negatives off the books first,
freeing up facilities and clinicians.

[Tsuba]

All the closet scientists are going to come out now. Think I will go fishing once I have feed the chooks.

[robbo24]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/258642

Wow, Superlife have been buying the s*** out of PEB.

[BFG]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/258642

Wow, Superlife have been buying the s*** out of PEB.

Another Gaynor with DIL? Or a Zeta with NZO? Only time shall tell!

[Snow Leopard]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/258642

Wow, Superlife have been buying the s*** out of PEB.


Another Gaynor with DIL? Or a Zeta with NZO? Only time shall tell!

No & No

Read this (https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZX/announcements/258606) and then work it out

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

No & No

Read this (https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZX/announcements/258606) and then work it out

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Shouldn't just read the headlines should we PT

[Biscuit]

Triage gives an accurate negative result, detect gives an accurate positive result.

Given the oft quoted 10 percent of patients with haematuria having some form of bladder cancer it would be best to get the 90 percent of true negatives off the books first,
freeing up facilities and clinicians.

Yes, Triage must be better than Detect for saying you don't have it. If triage comes back negative then there is a 98% probability that you don't have it. If Detect says you don't have it, then there is a 97% probability that you don't have it. So, not much better then? Perhaps the difference is in the overall sensitivities, but I'm not sure what that means.

[Casino]

Yes, Triage must be better than Detect for saying you don't have it. If triage comes back negative then there is a 98% probability that you don't have it. If Detect says you don't have it, then there is a 97% probability that you don't have it. So, not much better then? Perhaps the difference is in the overall sensitivities, but I'm not sure what that means.

I knew it would take over 12000 posts and 'satan' to start talking product as a factor in commercial success. Is a knife better or a sword? It's about trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity when perfect diagnosis is not possible. Triage helps you find those who you are most confident in to be true positives and they can go straight under the knife.
The rest you can keep assessing before deciding on invasive procedures.

[Minerbarejet]

Detect says levels are normal, there are elevated levels that may need evaluation or you have a positive indication to the degree indicated.
Detect does not say you dont have it but if it says you do have bladder cancer you can be pretty sure its right.
Triage does not say you do have it but if it says you dont have bladder cancer you can be pretty sure its right
Something like that

[Biscuit]

Triage helps you find those who you are most confident in to be true positives and they can go straight under the knife.
The rest you can keep assessing before deciding on invasive procedures.

No, I think triage is to pick out those that clearly don't have it. It has high negative predictive power. I'm just pointing out that so does Detect, and they are apparently the same technology. That doesn't mean they don't have commercial potential - I hope they do, although I am not currently holding.

[Casino]

No, I think triage is to pick out those that clearly don't have it. It has high negative predictive power. I'm just pointing out that so does Detect, and they are apparently the same technology. That doesn't mean they don't have commercial potential - I hope they do, although I am not currently holding.

You may be right. It's the other way round and it let's you know the true negatives. It's been a while since I looked into it. So it helps you send those home who are fine. Insurers will love it.

[Snow Leopard]

You may be right. It's the other way round and it let's you know the true negatives. It's been a while since I looked into it. So it helps you send those home who are fine. Insurers will love it.

Except that Kaiser Permanente, as we have established today, are going to do a 2000 person trail to decide whether they will want to love it, or not.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Casino]

Except that Kaiser Permanente, as we have established today, are going to do a 2000 person trail to decide whether they will want to love it, or not.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

You are right and thanks for calling me on it. Not communicating and updating the roadmap towards insurance coverage is my single biggest concern.

[NT001]

It would be great if some of those expressing opinions as to whether both "detect" and "triage" are really needed actually knew what triage meant, and understood the difference. I can't imagine that the people at the AUA and Kaiser are hanging on the the advice from this thread as to whether they should use both, as intended, or should take our advice and put their patients' lives at risk by just using one. Of course if we take PEB for a bunch of idiots, as some obviously do, then we'll just keep suggesting that potential users ignore the difference.

Triage accepts that you do have symptoms of bladder cancer, as indicated by detect, which precedes it, and then tells you whether or not you have to be invasively treated straight away or can be left for further observation. Pretty simple really. And it saves a lot of money and unnecessary suffering in a huge number of cases. Great for the patients, the urologists, and the insurance companies. Same with many other cancers. Watch and wait, and take action when it's deemed necessary. Often people with cancers can live with them for years untreated, and eventually die of something else.

[psychic]

You may not have that totally right

Suggest have a look at page 18 of the Annual report. This shows where it slots in

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-Report-AMEND-12Aug14.pdf

[robbo24]

No & No

Read this (https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZX/announcements/258606) and then work it out

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Ok, so:

(1) Superlife Trustee Nominees Limited, Superlife Limited, MCA NZ Limited, Ballynagarrick Investments Limited and Owen Nash - have all been buying the s*** out of PEB.

(2) For a reason I cannot readily determine by reading this (tl:dr) (https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZX/announcements/258606), control over all of the entities' (and Owen's) shares is now exercised by one.

(3) Working it out, numerous entities have been buying the s*** out of PEB and now, through some weird and wonderful spin-off of being bought by NZX, it has made its way to an SSH.

Yes?

[psychic]

Except that Kaiser Permanente, as we have established today, are going to do a 2000 person trail to decide whether they will want to love it, or not.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Can't think of a quicker way to validate Triage and get it into the primary Insurance market , can you?
KP have been on a bender to drop full Urological workups and this just slots right in there with their other studies. Sure, the Urologists will miss out, and I guess that is why it has been marketed / validated this way. Great stuff
Rubber stamp job what? :) Er, unless of course you don't think it works... ?


http://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/pb/assets/raw/Health%20Advance/journals/jmcp/jmcp_pr88_1.pdf

[Biscuit]

Triage accepts that you do have symptoms of bladder cancer, as indicated by detect, which precedes it, and then tells you whether or not you have to be invasively treated straight away or can be left for further observation. Pretty simple really.

No, I don't think so. Triage would be used as an initial screen for patients presenting with blood in the urine to identify and eliminate those who clearly do not have cancer. Those who could not be eliminated by Triage would then require further testing.

[Xerof]

As psychic forewarns, and satan confirms: the devil is in the detail.

A bit of research would save about 50 inaccurate and diversionary posts per day on this thread. p18 of AR is crystal clear team, and it must be apparent by now why KP will do a trial on CxB triage, and not on CxB detect

oops, I should research whether "about 50" is accurate

[Minerbarejet]

Are you saying that detect is the overture ( in a marketing sense ) and the main act is triage?

[Biscuit]

You may not have that totally right

Suggest have a look at page 18 of the Annual report. This shows where it slots in

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/Annual-Report-AMEND-12Aug14.pdf

My interpretation, and I could be wrong of course, is that back in the day, there was a market for a product that could be used by practitioners and specialists to diagnose and manage bladder cancer and now there is one product for practitioners and one product for specialists but the market (and essentially the product(s)) remains the same.

[Snow Leopard]

Ok, so:

(1) Superlife Trustee Nominees Limited, Superlife Limited, MCA NZ Limited, Ballynagarrick Investments Limited and Owen Nash - have all been buying the s*** out of PEB.

(2) For a reason I cannot readily determine by reading this (tl:dr) (https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZX/announcements/258606), control over all of the entities' (and Owen's) shares is now exercised by one.

(3) Working it out, numerous entities have been buying the s*** out of PEB and now, through some weird and wonderful spin-off of being bought by NZX, it has made its way to an SSH.

Yes?

NO

Superlife have had an approx 5% stake in PEB for longer than you have been on ShareTrader. This notice is just about control of the stake.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[robbo24]

NO

Superlife have had an approx 5% stake in PEB for longer than you have been on ShareTrader. This notice is just about control of the stake.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

See my point (2), I am aware of this.

[NT001]

It is correct that PEB is suggesting the use of "Triage" as a fast way to "enable urologists and physicians to evaluate patients presenting with haematuria, to quickly and accurately remove those who have a low probability of having a urothelial carcinoma, thereby lowering the number that are likely to need a full urological work-up.” In other words you don't HAVE to start with the Cxbladder test, I accept that. You can take the short-cut, and many urologists/patients no doubt will, to save time and money.

But as explained very clearly on P18 of the PEB annual report and elsewhere, Cxbladder is the product that detects initially whether cancer is present or not. It's the one that can put patients' minds at rest, often telling them that they don't have cancer at all - that there is another explanation for their haematuria. Obviously there are advantages in knowing this before proceeding to triage.

If the urologist moves straight to the use of triage, he/she will find out whether or not the patient has a "low probability" of having a carcinoma - but not whether it is ruled out. It's pretty clear that Cxbladder is the one you need to tell you whether or not cancer cells are present and will need watching and constant tests.

[Minerbarejet]

Cant wait for cxbladder triage ramifications to sink in.

It would seem Pacific Edge has fired both barrels this time in the war against bladder cancer.

"First of its kind in the market " for triage sounds like the competition either doesnt exist or is way behind.

[Casino]

It is correct that PEB is suggesting the use of "Triage" as a fast way to "enable urologists and physicians to evaluate patients presenting with haematuria, to quickly and accurately remove those who have a low probability of having a urothelial carcinoma, thereby lowering the number that are likely to need a full urological work-up.” In other words you don't HAVE to start with the Cxbladder test, I accept that. You can take the short-cut, and many urologists/patients no doubt will, to save time and money.

But as explained very clearly on P18 of the PEB annual report and elsewhere, Cxbladder is the product that detects initially whether cancer is present or not. It's the one that can put patients' minds at rest, often telling them that they don't have cancer at all - that there is another explanation for their haematuria. Obviously there are advantages in knowing this before proceeding to triage.

If the urologist moves straight to the use of triage, he/she will find out whether or not the patient has a "low probability" of having a carcinoma - but not whether it is ruled out. It's pretty clear that Cxbladder is the one you need to tell you whether or not cancer cells are present and will need watching and constant tests.

I think both tests allow you to put your mind to rest if you're lucky to be ruled out.
If triage doesn't rule you out, you don't need to panic. You may have cancer or you may not.
If detect rules you in, it's likely that you have cancer but you may not.

[skid]

It would be great if some of those expressing opinions as to whether both "detect" and "triage" are really needed actually knew what triage meant, and understood the difference. I can't imagine that the people at the AUA and Kaiser are hanging on the the advice from this thread as to whether they should use both, as intended, or should take our advice and put their patients' lives at risk by just using one. Of course if we take PEB for a bunch of idiots, as some obviously do, then we'll just keep suggesting that potential users ignore the difference.

Triage accepts that you do have symptoms of bladder cancer, as indicated by detect, which precedes it, and then tells you whether or not you have to be invasively treated straight away or can be left for further observation. Pretty simple really. And it saves a lot of money and unnecessary suffering in a huge number of cases. Great for the patients, the urologists, and the insurance companies. Same with many other cancers. Watch and wait, and take action when it's deemed necessary. Often people with cancers can live with them for years untreated, and eventually die of something else.

I dont think posters are here to provide a consultancy service to the Insurance companies NT--They are here to try to figure out if the product is going to sell.
Granted,with all the research going on,it is hard to make sense of why the market has rerisked the company down to the ''pre announcement'' level-but it has ,for now.(nothing wrong with correcting peoples research assumptions,but to assume those who are trying to figure this all out should ''run the company or advise the insurance company's'' is a bit beyond the call of duty.

[Minerbarejet]

Cant wait for cxbladder triage ramifications to sink in.

It would seem Pacific Edge has fired both barrels this time in the war against bladder cancer.

"First of its kind in the market " for triage sounds like the competition either doesnt exist or is way behind.
Would be interested to know if midkine is still part of the triage test.
Suspect it might be otherwise the biomarker part would change and require further approvals

[hilskin]

Are you saying that detect is the overture ( in a marketing sense ) and the main act is triage?

Do we have any idea on what PEB will get for carrying out a test using Triage? Is it the same as Detect or cheaper?
I can certainly see more triage tests than detect tests being carried out, just makes sense.
NT001 - The name of the test says it all so the Triage test WILL be used before a Detect test and the Detect test will only be used if a Triage test shows cancer and only if the urologist wants to use it. The Triage test will be the first tool in the box. (if they choose to use it)

[NT001]

the Detect test will only be used if a Triage test shows cancer

What would be the point?

[psychic]

I don't think we have any info on the likely price of the test and at this stage and can probably only assume that it shares much of the science behind CxBladder Detect. I guess it is rejigged to improve sensitivity (at the expense of false positives?) and combined with other known cancer factors to become more of a first up screening tool. (?)

And yes, the market for this must be (huge...?)

We do know that PEB has completed a large study of Triage and results are to be submitted for publication soon.

[hilskin]

The Triage test is very sensitive and designed to rule out any sign of cancer - because of this it will also give more false positives.
If the Triage test comes back negative then there is a very high chance you don't have cancer and no work up is required. (money saver)

The Detect test is better at telling you what stage you are at, Can eliminate any false positives from the triage test and will be used with cystoscopy. PEB are hoping Detect will eliminate other urine based tests. Time will tell.

[Minerbarejet]

What would be the point?
There is the nub.
The Triage test will tell a patient if they DONT have cancer.
It will not tell them they DO have cancer.
That is for Detect to decide working with the 10% or so who are screened out with Triage as requiring further investigation.

[hilskin]

There is the nub.
The Triage test will tell a patient if they DONT have cancer.
It will not tell them they DO have cancer.
That is for Detect to decide working with the 10% or so who are screened out with Triage as requiring further investigation.

If this test is effective at triaging patients and saving governments and insurance companies $$$$ the future looks good for PEB. Time will tell.
I'm very interested in some results from these studies for the triage test, if this product is effective and widely used this could get very interesting.

[Minerbarejet]

If this test is effective at triaging patients and saving governments and insurance companies $$$$ the future looks good for PEB. Time will tell.
I'm very interested in some results from these studies for the triage test, if this product is effective and widely used this could get very interesting.Very interesting indeed!
Another aspect is that they have a number of health organisations with access to Detect in place already to cater for any patients requiring further investigation at the urologist level. Smart move. Again

[hilskin]

One Stop Shop :-)
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/GE1412/S00054/pacific-edge-launches-cxbladder-triage.htm

Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David Darling says “the launch of Cxbladder Triage takes us a step closer to our vision of a ‘one-stop-shop’ for bladder cancer detection and management.”

[hilskin]

When is MAC due back, I'm just filling in until he gets back.

[Minerbarejet]

Should be "soon". You are doing a great job.:)

[nextbigthing]

What price will triage be, any ideas?

[Trader101]

The Triage test is very sensitive and designed to rule out any sign of cancer - because of this it will also give more false positives.
If the Triage test comes back negative then there is a very high chance you don't have cancer and no work up is required. (money saver)

The Detect test is better at telling you what stage you are at, Can eliminate any false positives from the triage test and will be used with cystoscopy. PEB are hoping Detect will eliminate other urine based tests. Time will tell.

From experience, when you present yourself at a doctors surgery with possible blood in your urine, a simple test is done with your urine (at the surgery) which will tell the doctor if there is blood. Then (depending on your history and circumstances etc), you are usually given antibiotics to treat a likely infection (in men generally over 50 ish this can often be the prostate).If the infection does not clear up then further action is required. This is where I think that the triage test could be used. My thoughts/comments only....

[Snow Leopard]

Can't think of a quicker way to validate Triage and get it into the primary Insurance market , can you?
KP have been on a bender to drop full Urological workups and this just slots right in there with their other studies. Sure, the Urologists will miss out, and I guess that is why it has been marketed / validated this way. Great stuff
Rubber stamp job what? :) Er, unless of course you don't think it works... ?


http://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/pb/assets/raw/Health%20Advance/journals/jmcp/jmcp_pr88_1.pdf

Kaiser will do there user program and evaluate the results it gives.
Then they will be asking the question can we save money by using this test in the process of diagnosing the cause of these patients medical complaint, and if so at what point in the process do we use it (which will depend on the price).
[The problem with a test that tells you definitely/highly probably do not have cancer is that it does not tell you what you do have.]

So though it works (in the way that it works) the extent (= number of tests) to which it would be used is currently unknown.

So if/when PEB announce that Kaiser are adopting CxWhatever it may be wise to see if they actually give any likely numbers as opposed to the usual marketing spiel.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*go see if you have not already done so - it is an enjoyable funny film.

[psychic]

Kaiser will do there user program and evaluate the results it gives.
Then they will be asking the question can we save money by using this test in the process of diagnosing the cause of these patients medical complaint, and if so at what point in the process do we use it (which will depend on the price).
[The problem with a test that tells you definitely/highly probably do not have cancer is that it does not tell you what you do have.]

So though it works (in the way that it works) the extent (= number of tests) to which it would be used is currently unknown.

So if/when PEB announce that Kaiser are adopting CxWhatever it may be wise to see if they actually give any likely numbers as opposed to the usual marketing spiel.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*go see if you have not already done so - it is an enjoyable funny film.

Sure. It will be interesting to see how it might be adopted.

Thing is, you rock up with blood in the Urine and although chances are that it is not bladder cancer, you get the full workup anyway right? Whenever they can do this, you know - like in a month or two, costing - what $1500 say?

And the results are likely to confirm that you just had a UT infection or whatever, lol, so "here's the antibiotics and, oh - sorry about the discomfort eh, we hope that er, hasn't upset your sex life dude..."

Me? I'd say give me the Triage test so I can exclude bladder cancer as a cause - NOW. Pop the antibiotics, and follow up if not clear.
I read that time is of the essence with bladder cancer detection. If Triage does not discount Bladder Cancer, then give me that Detect test (to see if I DO have BCa) followed by cystoscopy if you must have a look around.

Sure, KP need to thoroughly validate this if they are going to run with it but significant time, resource and cost savings seem there to be had, big time.

[Biscuit]

Me? I'd say give me the Triage test so I can exclude bladder cancer as a cause. Pop the antibiotics, and follow up if not clear.


Wouldn't you say "test my urine for an infection, that's what its most likely to be"?

[couta1]

Wouldn't you say "test my urine for an infection, that's what its most likely to be"?
A test for a UTI would be your first port of call which is standard practice in retirement villages which have a high incidence of hematuria, simple dipstick test then off to the lab for a culture and ABs if positive for a bacterial infection.

[Snow Leopard]

Sure. It will be interesting to see how it might be adopted.Thing is, you rock up with blood in the Urine and although chances are that it is not bladder cancer, you get the full workup anyway right? Whenever they can do this, you know - like in a month or two, costing - what $1500 say?And the results are likely to confirm that you just had a UT infection or whatever, lol, so "here's the antibiotics and, oh - sorry about the discomfort eh, we hope that er, hasn't upset your sex life dude..."Me? I'd say give me the Triage test so I can exclude bladder cancer as a cause - NOW. Pop the antibiotics, and follow up if not clear.I read that time is of the essence with bladder cancer detection. If Triage does not discount Bladder Cancer, then give me that Detect test (to see if I DO have BCa) followed by cystoscopy if you must have a look around. Sure, KP need to thoroughly validate this if they are going to run with it but significant time, resource and cost savings seem there to be had, big time.

Lol. :)

I guess the Doctor would say "Well if you are really worried that it is cancer the most definitive answer will be to have a look up there asap and maybe do a Detect (after?) because it catches the occasional one that the poking missing.
Can you afford it as your insurance company protocol says they won't cover it at this stage?"

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Trader101]

Here's how I see it: You turn up to the doctor with what you think is blood in your urine. They would do a test of you urine for blood. If positive you get a antibiotics which should improve things within a few days. If not you go back the doctor who would mostly likely refer you for a blood test and do a referral to the hospital. At this point you could do a triage test which would probably take around 1 week to know the results? Hopefully by that time the hospital has your referral and you on a list for some action. If the results are that you have bladder cancer, then I would hope you are moved up the list to "urgent" and are seen quickly. In my opinion, this is where the triage test comes in very handy! If you do not have cancer, then you would still be a waiting list for further follow up.
My thoughts/ comments only....

[Biscuit]

Forty years ago, I went to the doctor with blood in the urine. The doctor, who was an old guy then and is long dead now, held the sample up to the light and peered at it for a moment. "You'll be fine" he said. And that was that.

[psychic]

Forty years ago, I went to the doctor with blood in the urine. The doctor, who was an old guy then and is long dead now, held the sample up to the light and peered at it for a moment. "You'll be fine" he said. And that was that.

ha ha- love it.. :)

[Minerbarejet]

Forty years ago, I went to the doctor with blood in the urine. The doctor, who was an old guy then and is long dead now, held the sample up to the light and peered at it for a moment. "You'll be fine" he said. And that was that.Guess you came to rites, satan.:)

[BIRMANBOY]

it was probably a result of riding the horse to work without a saddle.
Forty years ago, I went to the doctor with blood in the urine. The doctor, who was an old guy then and is long dead now, held the sample up to the light and peered at it for a moment. "You'll be fine" he said. And that was that.

[couta1]

Forty years ago, I went to the doctor with blood in the urine. The doctor, who was an old guy then and is long dead now, held the sample up to the light and peered at it for a moment. "You'll be fine" he said. And that was that.
As accurate as anything back in the good old days, actually its pretty simple to distiguish a UTI from other conditions as the urine has a cloudy appearance and has a fishy smell so urine that isn't cloudy and doesn't smell unusual but has blood detectable with the eye or a dipstick could be caused by bladder cancer.

[pierre]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11371345

Great news for cancer patients. Maybe PEB products can assist with faster and cheaper diagnostic tests.

[Minerbarejet]

This latest release of Triage to market must surely produce new Edison and Forbar analyses.
Will be interesting to see how much projections have changed.

CxbladderPredict looks as though it will be very useful too, as a way of finding if those patients with bladder cancer established by any means, not just cxbladder detect, belong in the superficial or invasive category.

[skid]

They would not be worth their salt if they had not factored that in--Its pretty old news and has been on the cards for a while(but they are pretty much covered anyway with the spread they were giving in SP.)
The market certainly has not really paid much attention to the Edison report so far.

This is more or less a 'recycled' announcement-(we all knew it was coming)

Its what they do with it that will count----The name of the game is still the same--getting that big Kahuna on board.

[Minerbarejet]

From the Sept 29th Edison Report

Pacific Edge’s next product, Cxbladdertriage, includes the same five biomarkers as Cxbladderdetect, adding four phenotypic variables to give a new algorithm. Cxbladdertriage is to be used to rule out cancer by its high sensitivity and high negative predictive value.
With a similar pricing strategy, the test will target primary clinicians and physicians; in particular primary care physicians could use this technology to triage out patients who do not need a referral for a full urological work-up.


So from that we can take it that the Cellmid CDY:ASX connection is strengthened further via midkine usage and resultant royalties.
Plus the cost of the triage test is about the same as detect.
:):):):)

[penn]

Good work MBJ!


(let) MBJDYR ;)

[Crystal Ball]

Forty years ago, I went to the doctor with blood in the urine. The doctor, who was an old guy then and is long dead now, held the sample up to the light and peered at it for a moment. "You'll be fine" he said. And that was that.
Haha, must 've had a Crystal Ball.......

[AndyLP]

Has anyone tried to get back into bladdercancer.me recently? Thought I'd log in to see if there'd been much activity since launching a couple of weeks back. I can't seem to get into my old account, or make a new one. Also the forgot password 'link' isn't a hyperlink.

[NT001]

The ASX has put a trading halt on shares in Cellmid, the Aussie cancer biotech company that has a close scientific and commercial relationship with PEB, until Monday morning at the company's request pending an announcement. No indication of course whether this involves its work with PEB in any way, and Cellmid's SP hasn't moved recently.

[Xerof]

Cellmid are doing a Capital Raising - see page 2 of their ann.

[NT001]

Another little news item that probably can't do PEB any harm. PEB's co-founder and chief scientific officer, Dr Parry Guilford, has been appointed by the government as a member of the Science Board which is responsible for the allocation of funding used predominantly by research organisations for science, technology, research, and related activities.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1412/S00241/new-science-board-member-appointed.htm

[golden city]

keep going down..wonder why?

[Dentie]

keep going down..wonder why?

Probably because there has been only one announcement this week (that had been previously forecasted anyway), PEB doing business as usual.... and some people just aren't happy unless they are transacting?

[skid]

Probably because there has been only one announcement this week (that had been previously forecasted anyway), PEB doing business as usual.... and some people just aren't happy unless they are transacting?

Its the markets fault (If you apply that to Thurs-you can take that literally--If you apply it to Fri--you can take it sarcastically:D

[Minerbarejet]

Further from the Edison Report 29 Sept 2014
In case you missed it.
Hidden gems:

We expect meaningful sales from Cxbladderdetect in calendar 2015 and positive cash flow for the company in calendar 2016.

Execution risk therefore remains an important hurdle and we expect proof of commercial success to serve as a compelling driver of the share price.

We see considerable scope for a re-rating of the shares as evidence of successful commercialisation emerges.

We do not see a near-term new competitive threat to Cxbladderdetect or the Cxbladder portfolio of products.
Clinical validation will be critical for new competitive technologies and the long lead time to commercial adoption serves as a high barrier to entry

It is more accurate, faster, less invasive and more cost-effective than standard methods that include cytology, NMP22 BladderChek (Alere) and NMP22 ELISA (Fisher Scientific).

Screening studies have shown that in up to 20% of cases of gross haematuria, patients go on to be diagnosed with UC, while only 5% of cases of microscopic haematuria turn out to be UCs such that the 2001 American Urological Association (AUA) Best Practice Policy on Asymptomatic Microscopic Haematuria recommends that all patients presenting with gross haematuria, particularly those without evidence of infections, should undergo full urologic work-up.

There are also currently a number diagnostics tests in the market in development for the detection
and monitoring of UCs, underpinning the attractive opportunity. All are in earlier stages of
development than Cxbladderdetect and none, as yet, has shown equivalent or better overall
accuracy. Given the long lead time for the commercialisation of UC tests, which can span a number
of years, we believe that Pacific Edge has a considerable leg-up on would-be competitors.

"They seem quite certain that this next paragraph is the way it is"

CMS coverage is paramount to successful commercialisation in the US. The reimbursement and
approval process for Cxbladderdetect is underway and CMS and Pacific Edge management believe
the conclusion of negotiations will likely occur later this calendar year or in the early part of 2015.
Currently tests are being processed and invoiced. Once negotiations on a contract are complete,
these can be billed, at which time we can expect a sales windfall for Pacific Edge as the backlog is
processed. Advanced discussions are also underway with the Veteran’s Administration (VA).

Pacific Edge runs the risk of potential competitive products from those known diagnostic tests that
have not yet published data and those not yet in the public domain. We do not expect a near-term
competitive threat to the Cxbladder technology. Clinical validation will be critical for would-be new
tests, while the long lead time to commercial adoption serves as a high barrier to entry.

[skid]

Boy -you guys are really taking these Edison guys as the Gospel.

For those that are really convinced this share is the Bees Knees then this would most likely be the week to buy cheap,as the markets are getting pummeled--(probably be best to wait for a sign of it stabilizing though)

Looks like another possible correction brewing--so far these have fizzled but you never know when one will get out of hand,and regardless of what some think ,they do cause collateral damage (which can be a good thing for those on the sidelines or holders who want to top up)

When things get like this ,all those accuracy tests-stats-pr predictions ,etc go out the window.---time to look outward for a while till this hopefully blows over.

[MAC]

Very many may say that Pacific Edge has already bounced off the sub sub bargain basement.

The Forbar price target is $1.25, that's +49% from here for those that want it, the SP is lingering, at least for the time being, in the lower end of the Edison valuation range of $0.42 to $3.57, and the SP is roughly at 12 month lows or thereabouts.

All that and Pacific Edge continue to accumulate invested value just as they have been over the last 12 months, value that is not going away, accumulated IP, the sign up of commercial network partners, multiple user programmes launched each which comes prospectively with its own forward revenue stream.

Pacific Edge have affirmed their five year $100M goal and they tell us they are on track.

And, after putting in the hard yards they are just now at the foot of a prospective growth curve.

Analyst consensus revenue growth estimates are for FY15 242% and for FY16 330%.

Very good value investing indeed up to around $1.65 at present as far as I’m concerned.

[winner69]

Very many may say that Pacific Edge has already bounced off the sub sub bargain basement.

The Forbar price target is $1.25, that's +49% from here for those that want it, the SP is lingering, at least for the time being, in the lower end of the Edison valuation range of $0.42 to $3.57, and the SP is roughly at 12 month lows or thereabouts.

All that and Pacific Edge continue to accumulate invested value just as they have been over the last 12 months, value that is not going away, accumulated IP, the sign up of commercial network partners, multiple user programmes launched each which comes prospectively with its own forward revenue stream.

Pacific Edge have affirmed their five year $100M goal and they tell us they are on track.

And, after putting in the hard yards they are just now at the foot of a prospective growth curve.

Analyst consensus revenue growth estimates are for FY15 242% and for FY16 330%.

Very good value investing indeed up to around $1.65 at present as far as I’m concerned.

Like that phrase 'accumulated investor value' and good it is not going away

The more value accumulated closer the big pay day with a takeover/merger or whatever. Maybe first half next year at $1.30 plus a bit?

As long as the scientists are looked after and stay in NZ so they can do their things. Science is what what they care about, not shareprices or money.

[BFG]

For those interested shareholders your monthly uptrend line is still intact.

[skid]

Very many may say that Pacific Edge has already bounced off the sub sub bargain basement.

The Forbar price target is $1.25, that's +49% from here for those that want it, the SP is lingering, at least for the time being, in the lower end of the Edison valuation range of $0.42 to $3.57, and the SP is roughly at 12 month lows or thereabouts.

All that and Pacific Edge continue to accumulate invested value just as they have been over the last 12 months, value that is not going away, accumulated IP, the sign up of commercial network partners, multiple user programmes launched each which comes prospectively with its own forward revenue stream.

Pacific Edge have affirmed their five year $100M goal and they tell us they are on track.

And, after putting in the hard yards they are just now at the foot of a prospective growth curve.

Analyst consensus revenue growth estimates are for FY15 242% and for FY16 330%.

Very good value investing indeed up to around $1.65 at present as far as I’m concerned.

Thats all fine and all research is handy-but if your going to make statements like good value investing up to 1.65---a ''screaming buy'' at somewhere around 1.00+ a few months ago--undervalued at 1.70 (before the catastrophic fall)--then dont turn around and talk about those who have a differing opinion, influencing newbies--those that listened before have most likely paid a heavy price.
Perhaps the info with out the predictions or give a little more leeway for those who believe that PEB still have yet to bring home the goods.
(having said that ,its good to see the SP has held so far today though)

As a side note ,Ive been looking at a few other outfits that are on there way to a target of 300mil--They are still well under 1.65----Id be interested to know how you (or Edison) have come up with a valuation of that 1.65 for a company with a target of 100mil.

[skid]

For those interested shareholders your monthly uptrend line is still intact.

Its definitely going to need to bounce off the present SP to hold though

[skid]

May not have bounced but it did hold--gotta give credit where credit is due--could be that bargain basement bottom,you referred to Mac,as long as outside markets dont spoil the party.

[Rob Optimist]

See CX bladder tests being advertised on facebook, certainly some good exposure for them but think might be wrong age group they are targeting (except for me).

[NT001]

The trading halt late last week on Aussie cancer biotech company Cellmid, with which PEB has a working relationship, appears to have been for two reasons. Firstly, Cellmid has raised A$1.3m in new capital from selected investors to fund ongoing research including human clinical trials for an anti-cancer antibody.

And secondly, Cellmid has announced the securing of an important Japanese patent relating to an antibody for the cancer biomarker Midkine. PEB uses Midkine as a cancer biomarker in Cxbladder, under licence from Cellmid. Recent research indicates that targeting markers like Midkine with antibodies, such as are being developed by Cellmid, provides a promising new approach to curing cancer and certain autoimmune diseases.

[Minerbarejet]

Edison report out again , up to 1.16

Roflmao , get a proofreader Edison.

An L missing in Public Healthcare.:)

[Dentie]

Interesting their valuation only appears to include CxBladder...

[Baa_Baa]

Is this the Edison report .. "On the edge of glory"

? dated 29 Sept .. ?
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pacific-edge1

[slack]

The new report is here:
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/researchreports/pacificedge161214update.pdf

Perhaps there's some other way to find them when they're released but they're listed here:
https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/PEB/analysis

[Minerbarejet]

I have a google alert set up with the words Pacific Edge and another with CxBladder which seems to do the trick.

[Baa_Baa]

The new report is here:
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/researchreports/pacificedge161214update.pdf

Perhaps there's some other way to find them when they're released but they're listed here:
https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/PEB/analysis

Thanks. Interesting that their Sept update said "We value Pacific Edge at NZ$1.16 per share." and now their latest update "we increase our fair value to NZ$369m from NZ$338m (NZ$1.16 per share from NZ$1.06)" Something odd there, nevertheless, from $0.83 today, $1.16 is almost 40% upside.

[winner69]

Thanks. Interesting that their Sept update said "We value Pacific Edge at NZ$1.16 per share." and now their latest update "we increase our fair value to NZ$369m from NZ$338m (NZ$1.16 per share from NZ$1.06)" Something odd there, nevertheless, from $0.83 today, $1.16 is almost 40% upside.

Think they had the wrong number of shares in the original Sept report when they said $1.16...or something like that

[Minerbarejet]

Edison forgot to include the capital raising of last year which diluted about 11% from 116 to 106. That was corrected and a new report was issued with 1.06 as the valuation.
Now we have a new valuation which, coincidentally, puts it back to 116.
Wonder what Forbarr will come up with.:)

[Baa_Baa]

Edison forgot to include the capital raising of last year which diluted about 11% from 116 to 106
Well that inspires confidence in their analysis! Not. :t_down:

[Schrodinger]

Edison report out again , up to 1.16

Roflmao , get a proofreader Edison.

An L missing in Public Healthcare.:)

Clicking spellcheck is hard amirite?

Is there a correlation with their report and attention to detail. For a sector that demands the best I think they fail on both fronts. Their valuation is meaningless.

[biker]

Interesting their valuation only appears to include CxBladder...

Our valuation is derived using a DCF methodology
using a discount rate of 12.5% and using forecast free cash flows. We include sales for Cxbladder
Detect and Cxbladder Triage, conservatively excluding additional pipeline products in our forecasts.

[skid]

I think alot of posters are starting to see that alot of these reports need to be taken with a grain of salt.
It was starting to become the ''Gospel according to Edison''
But the market is not a happy place ATM and the SP holding is a good sign.
(the US stock market is following the price of oil and this could be a long haul oil war)
This,(unlike some of the more recent slides) could lead the markets down farther than before (something to consider if the SP does start to slip)
If the SP continues to hold ,then no reason to fret.

[MAC]

Still believe they are way too conservative in their valuation methodology, they should really be valuing to company set goals when Pacific Edge are confidently re-affirming that they are on track in meeting said goals, anything else is a little misleading to those not delving into report detail.

At some point they really must be putting a bit more effort into valuing the Cxcolorectal and melanoma IP too I reckon, both are worth quite a bit more in addition to market cap now that the patents are securing a competitive advantage.

Highlights are the new news since the HY report though;

“Two new programmes have recently been signed in Australia, while in the US to date four healthcare providers are undertaking user programmes for Cxbladder Detect, each having been signed following an initial evaluation period of three to nine months.”

More and more prospective forward revenue streams stacking all the time, good stuff.

[Minerbarejet]

Clicking spellcheck is hard amirite?

Is there a correlation with their report and attention to detail. For a sector that demands the best I think they fail on both fronts. Their valuation is meaningless.
Hey Schrodinger, hows the cat?
I have a bit of a cold at the moment, was wondering if you could send some of those Lemons you eat for breakfast.
One L missing and the whole thing is a disaster and anyway spellcheck wouldnt have found it as they are both valid words unless context is involved which I doubt.
Cheers
Miner:)
Just kidding about the lemons

[Snow Leopard]

Interesting to compare the updated financial summary and then look again at the commentary.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Schrodinger]

Hey Schrodinger, hows the cat?
I have a bit of a cold at the moment, was wondering if you could send some of those Lemons you eat for breakfast.
One L missing and the whole thing is a disaster and anyway spellcheck wouldnt have found it as they are both valid words unless context is involved which I doubt.
Cheers
Miner:)
Just kidding about the lemons

Hi Miner I actually do like some companies, but my comments are related to the general research capabilities in the market. They are terrible for NZ and they at the very least misinform the average punter.

You just have to look across the ditch and the analysis quality jumps 10x. As always DYOR.

[psychic]

Interesting to compare the updated financial summary and then look again at the commentary.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Okay - you got me stumped. A few more clues for the dim witted please? Increased Risk?

Interesting that Edison now concede the $100m Revenue target might be achieved one year later than PEB predicts - rather than the two years previously built in. And gee, they are lousy payers these Health boys eh when we need to budget on carrying Debtors for 8 - 9 months looking at 2016e. I thought these NPN's were supposed to faciltate fast payment?

Otherwise looks pretty good to me, all go.

[Minerbarejet]

Hi Miner I actually do like some companies, but my comments are related to the general research capabilities in the market. They are terrible for NZ and they at the very least misinform the average punter.

You just have to look across the ditch and the analysis quality jumps 10x. As always DYOR.
It seems that you have uncovered the fact there is a market for excellent research, you could give it a go, mate, might make millions.:)

[nextbigthing]

It seems that you have uncovered the fact there is a market for excellent research, you could give it a go, mate, might make millions.:)

You could start a website called tradershare where people discuss shares and post their own research. Then you would make millions.

[Snow Leopard]

Okay - you got me stumped. A few more clues for the dim witted please? Increased Risk?

Interesting that Edison now concede the $100m Revenue target might be achieved one year later than PEB predicts - rather than the two years previously built in. And gee, they are lousy payers these Health boys eh when we need to budget on carrying Debtors for 8 - 9 months looking at 2016e. I thought these NPN's were supposed to faciltate fast payment?

Otherwise looks pretty good to me, all go.

Let us start with that bold statement: Edison have a figure of $11,614 and interestingly I have a figure of $11614.64 if I use my interpretation of their numbers and assume precisely 7 months to pay.

Co-incidence? May be! But let us run with it.

What I have is that sales exceeds expenses (accounting profitability :))) in Oct 2015 and the company becomes cash flow positive in Jul 2016 with $791,000 cash still in the bank.

Now consider variation around those sales numbers and the ones where they run out of cash.

In the case of sales lagging a little then it is highly probably that the bank would give them a loan to tide them over as the company is essentially profitable.

In more extreme cases where the sales are lagging then you reach the point that you
a) run out of cash (earlier) and
b) profitability looks further off
c) the banks says no.

Fixing that changes the long term valuations.

This report contains an increased risk of this scenario happening.

Though Edison have increased the expected revenues they have reduced the expected profits for 2015/2016.

It is this sub 2 year target that they have to meet first.

Edison want more detail, don't we all?, on expenses.

Why they did not wait for the HY report and then issue an update, when maybe we all the wiser I do not know.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[psychic]

Let us start with that bold statement: Edison have a figure of $11,614 and interestingly I have a figure of $11614.64 if I use my interpretation of their numbers and assume precisely 7 months to pay.

Co-incidence? May be! But let us run with it.

What I have is that sales exceeds expenses (accounting profitability :))) in Oct 2015 and the company becomes cash flow positive in Jul 2016 with $791,000 cash still in the bank.

Now consider variation around those sales numbers and the ones where they run out of cash.

In the case of sales lagging a little then it is highly probably that the bank would give them a loan to tide them over as the company is essentially profitable.

In more extreme cases where the sales are lagging then you reach the point that you
a) run out of cash (earlier) and
b) profitability looks further off
c) the banks says no.

Fixing that changes the long term valuations.

This report contains an increased risk of this scenario happening.

Though Edison have increased the expected revenues they have reduced the expected profits for 2015/2016.

It is this sub 2 year target that they have to meet first.

Edison want more detail, don't we all?, on expenses.

Why they did not wait for the HY report and then issue an update, when maybe we all the wiser I do not know.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT, I'll email DD and suggest they back off the growth a little. :)

I wonder how realistic that Debtor level is? Are they just projecting a high Debtor/ Sales ratio forward from FY2014 maybe? I could accept the high ratio back then given the very early stages of things, but I'd have hoped that they could collect the cash a lot faster going forward.

But a very good point you make. There is only so much funding of debtors they can handle with the reserves on hand

[psychic]

Oh wait - and I see now you are probably also alluding to the increased op cost 2015e (say 1.0m) What's that about I wonder?

[Minerbarejet]

Oh wait - and I see now you are probably also alluding to the increased op cost 2015e (say 1.0m) What's that about I wonder?more sales people?

[psychic]

I guess Miner, but wasn't this already factored in?
Will learm more I guess with the increased detail available with the complete HY report. Regardless, I'm sure it is well considered use of cash.

[skid]

I guess Miner, but wasn't this already factored in?
Will learm more I guess with the increased detail available with the complete HY report. Regardless, I'm sure it is well considered use of cash.

Well..thats great that your sure,but I guess the rest of us will have to wait and see:mellow:

[Minerbarejet]

I guess Miner, but wasn't this already factored in?
Will learm more I guess with the increased detail available with the complete HY report. Regardless, I'm sure it is well considered use of cash.
Could also be an advancement to other product release timings. After all, HY was pretty encouraging, I thought, and FY would seem to be shaping up as at least equal, maybe a bit more?

[Baa_Baa]

Someone mentioned risk, which prompted me to dig out the monthly chart and re-evaluate PEB on my 'growth watchlist'. For the meantime that's where it's staying. Considering that a breakout at .97 around the 61.8% retrace resistance, would leave .12 on the table right now, the downside risk to .62 support loses .20 The current trendline support gives some comfort, as does horizontal support at .79 In any event, the monthly price chart is weak and trending down. Note that the MA's are set for long term, 12, 60 and 108 months.

6604

[skid]

Surprisingly few posts for the clarity the full year report was suppose to bring

[Minerbarejet]

Surprisingly few posts for the clarity the full year report was suppose to bring
As a matter of courtesy we have been waiting for you to express an opinion.:)

[Snow Leopard]

Surprisingly few posts for the clarity the full year report was suppose to bring

HYR Long on rhetoric, short on hard and useful figures.

It is probably near impossible to post about the way PEB management are treating their shareholders without descending into the sort of words which are not permitted on ShareTrader.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

Now some may propose that’s a little unfair Tiger,

When one researches other biotech stocks out there in the world, Pacific Edge really do seem to go to relatively extraordinary lengths in providing clinical information on the products, and also appreciably, information in their reports on market analysis and explanations generally as to how the US market functions and what shareholder should expect.

They offered a HY conference call for analysts to question the report which they seem to have done to their satisfaction, three of whom have recently raised their guidance.

Financially, we should not expect any more, it’s a compliant report, and their international competitors do not provide any more information if one cares to check, in fact they provide much much less. Many including myself may offer that too much information is not exclusively in the best interests of shareholders.

[BFG]

Guess we can invoke this poem as a sign to descend back into chaos eh PT?

My hands were all shaky
My face had gone pale.
A letter from Santa
Just arrived in the mail!
It was hand written,
In old-fashioned ink pen
It was handsomely printed
And dated Twelve-Ten.

“Dear Sharetraders,” it said
“I’m writing because
This year I’ve repealed
My naughty/nice laws.

So now I urge you:
Be vulgar and crude!
I like it when Sharetraders
Are boorish and rude.

Burp at the table!
Gargle your peas!
Never say ‘Thank you,’
‘Your Welcome,’ Or ‘Please.’

Talk back to your MAC!
Don’t do what you’re told!
Stick your tongue out
At Hancock if he scolds.

Drive everyone crazy!
I really don’t care.
Act like a jerk
Anytime, Anywhere!

I’m changing the rules!
The Bad girls and boys
Will be, from now on,
The ones who get the toys!

Good little Sharetraderss make me sick, its no joke
Sincerely,
signed Santa
…And Then I awoke.

I hate being good
(Or trying to fake it).
Seven days until Christmas
I don’t think I’ll make it.

Big Friendly Goose :)

[Minerbarejet]

Things a bit slow today, Moosie?
Not a bad effort though I must say,
Cheers
Miner

[BFG]

Things a bit slow today, Moosie?
Not a bad effort though I must say,
Cheers
Miner

Things always move slowly in my neck of the job sector. Definitely no rush anywhere to be seen! Just sittin up on 4th floor enjoyin the view of Cleeseville and horrendous weather while sipping on cheap coffee. :)

[Slam dunk]

who are you kidding........ complete opposite I would of thought

... and recently they started advertising on facebook....... I assume this is aiming at perspective clients in 2040-2050.
Have you work out a new DFC based on this rhectoric

Another false snap from Snapiti. Facebook ads can be targeted by age and what you view online.

[Minerbarejet]

who are you kidding........ complete opposite I would of thought

... and recently they started advertising on facebook....... I assume this is aiming at perspective clients in 2040-2050.
Have you work out a new DFC based on this rhectoric
Snap, if you need a hand to beat the English language into submission you just have to aks, mate.
I would of hepled earlier but there was two much retterric.:)

[Tsuba]

Snap, if you need a hand to beat the English language into submission you just have to aks, mate.
I would of hepled earlier but there was two much retterric.:)

You always make me smile Miner. ;)

[skid]

Things a bit slow today, Moosie?
Not a bad effort though I must say,
Cheers
Miner

Yes ,a bit slow--Its the full year report (cant remember if it was you who mentioned we would most likely get clarity on things discussed when the FY report came out) Whadaya reckon?

[skid]

who are you kidding........ complete opposite I would of thought

... and recently they started advertising on facebook....... I assume this is aiming at perspective clients in 2040-2050.
Have you work out a new DFC based on this rhectoric

But wait...Theres more........

[skid]

All kidding aside...Lets face it folks..the only real game changer is them signing up one of the big boys ,with a real promise of sales.
Im certainly not ruling that out(we live in hope) but nothing else will cut it,no matter how you look at the figures.

So they (big boys)need to evaluate the tests ,make a decision on who best suits their needs(sorry but its not a given) and jump on board with that outfit--If that happens then its a matter of just how many tests that translates into and how well they are equipped to process them.

What we dont know is whether any others are offering ''sweeteners'' (one would hope they run with the best test,and that best test turns out to be CX and nothing else comes into the equation) but we just dont know yet. We are still very much in the spec stage--(but better than last year)so obviously there are other things at work here in terms of SP.

The big bounce on the DOW is certainly not doing any harm.

[Minerbarejet]

Yes ,a bit slow--Its the full year report (cant remember if it was you who mentioned we would most likely get clarity on things discussed when the FY report came out) Whadaya reckon?I reckon we have a bit of a wait until May 28th or thereabouts. Good on you, mate. No rush , eh.

[BlackPeter]

I reckon we have a bit of a wait until May 28th or thereabouts. Good on you, mate. No rush , eh.

Oh dear ... if we take (recent) history as a guide, than this means we need to sit through another 4500 odd posts on this thread (and roughly 33 company announcements) before we know more. Who can cope with that much suspense? :p

[BFG]

Oh dear ... if we take (recent) history as a guide, than this means we need to sit through another 4500 odd posts on this thread (and roughly 33 company announcements) before we know more. Who can cope with that much suspense? :p

Will more poems help??? :D

[BlackPeter]

Will more poems help??? :D

Absolutely ...

maybe you and Paper Tiger can cooperate on that:)

[NT001]

Oh dear ... if we take (recent) history as a guide, then this means we need to sit through another 4500 odd posts on this thread (and roughly 33 company announcements) before we know more. Who can cope with that much suspense? :p

It's not so bad if you ignore the posts that are just idle chit-chat and only read the 20% or so that are relevant to PEB. (OK, tell me I don't have a sense of humour.)

[skid]

I reckon we have a bit of a wait until May 28th or thereabouts. Good on you, mate. No rush , eh.

If thats the case,then we can expect to see just more sideways movement with the SP,unless some lose faith and decide their money can be put to better use elsewhere.

To reach the target of sales there is going to have to be something that multiplies sales growth (May?)

Meanwhile I would have thought that the full year report would have clarified things like just what that extra expense was, that was discussed earlier and perhaps a breakdown of sales according to country.

[Minerbarejet]

If thats the case,then we can expect to see just more sideways movement with the SP,unless some lose faith and decide their money can be put to better use elsewhere.

To reach the target of sales there is going to have to be something that multiplies sales growth (May?)

Meanwhile I would have thought that the full year report would have clarified things like just what that extra expense was, that was discussed earlier and perhaps a breakdown of sales according to country.
Dear skid,
In the nicest possible way may I point out that what you have been looking at is a Half Yearly Report to the end of Sept 2014 in recent times and the Full Year Report wont be revealed until around May 28 for the period Oct 1 to Mar 31 2015
I trust this qualifies as an inoffensive and on topic post
Cheers,
Miner

[waddis]

I came across an article in "The Headliner" magazine 11DEC14 which someone gave to me in which there was an article on PEB, most was stuff we already know but the piece I took out of it was the increased confidence felt by Healthcare Analyst Chelsea Leadbetter of the chances of commercial success in the US after leaving PEB's investor day in Hershey. Always good to get someones feedback who was actually there mingling with those in the industry, not too sure how much broker spin it has on it. It may not mean much and this article may have also appeared elsewhere but I found it of interest and others may to. First time at posting an image so hope it appears

6614

[Minerbarejet]

During the process of stumbling around in the cxbladder triage release there were a couple of interesting points I came across that have not made their way to this thread so far. They stated that there were 4 phenotypic variables in the algorithm associated with the triage side of cxbladder. Phenotypic variables relate to observable traits such as size, colour, shape, behaviour and unobservable such as blood type. It was also noted that patients medical history records were required along with the triage test. As nothing else is being presented other than a pottle of pee can we work out that the phenotypic variables associated with this test are in the medical records? Could this mean that history of smoking, working environment, age, demographics, gender enter into it and if so which ones? And can these be tweaked for different locations? Would a triage test for the US be different to one for Asia because of the differing phenotypic variable parameters required?

[skid]

Dear skid,
In the nicest possible way may I point out that what you have been looking at is a Half Yearly Report to the end of Sept 2014 in recent times and the Full Year Report wont be revealed until around May 28 for the period Oct 1 to Mar 31 2015
I trust this qualifies as an inoffensive and on topic post
Cheers,
Miner

Thank You miner--That was nice:)

[skid]

I came across an article in "The Headliner" magazine 11DEC14 which someone gave to me in which there was an article on PEB, most was stuff we already know but the piece I took out of it was the increased confidence felt by Healthcare Analyst Chelsea Leadbetter of the chances of commercial success in the US after leaving PEB's investor day in Hershey. Always good to get someones feedback who was actually there mingling with those in the industry, not too sure how much broker spin it has on it. It may not mean much and this article may have also appeared elsewhere but I found it of interest and others may to. First time at posting an image so hope it appears

sounds nice ,but it is just recycled For Bar stuff. (I do like the way they got creative with the chart though,in terms of time frame)


6614


sounds nice ,but it is just recycled For Bar stuff. (I do like the way they got creative with the chart though,in terms of time frame)

[Minerbarejet]

sounds nice ,but it is just recycled For Bar stuff. (I do like the way they got creative with the chart though,in terms of time frame)
I am sure Chelsea Leadbetter would be interested to know that her hard work and analysis that has gone into producing the item is now known as "For Barr stuff".:)

Lets not forget that she was an attendee at the Investors Day and is privy to more visual information in relation to PEB than we are ever likely to see.

Glad you like the chart, skid, time to move on, eh?

[skid]

I am sure Chelsea Leadbetter would be interested to know that her hard work and analysis that has gone into producing the item is now known as "For Barr stuff".:)

Lets not forget that she was an attendee at the Investors Day and is privy to more visual information in relation to PEB than we are ever likely to see.

Glad you like the chart, skid, time to move on, eh?

She Umm...works for For bar--she's repeating their forecast---but your right she was there to see all the bells and whistles--(I wonder who paid for that)---She got out of uni in 2008 to go work part time for them--doesnt say when she actually went full time.

''Moving on'' doesnt necessarily mean leaving out the whole picture---The article is not to be discounted,but needs to be taken in context--she is repeating information from the company she works for and may well have had her costs covered to come to the ''event''..thats all

For those that have a short memory heres the chart
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/superchart.aspx?sc=PEB&eg=NZ

That leveling off sideways area is a good sign but it really needs that boost to get it into a real breakout to get excited about.-----maybe May eh?

[Minerbarejet]

Could be wrong but I think her involvement is little more than just working for ForBarr.
It appears that she is the analyst from ForBarr who made the forecast on PEB prior to this one and has followed up with a close up look at the facilities.
This "excursion" to Hershey has raised her level of awareness as to what and how PEB are actually doing things. She has had no hesitation in adding her impressions to the report.
Dont know what your education level is, skid, but she has miles more than most people, including myself.
Who paid for her trip is of little consequence.



Chelsea Leadbetter joined Forsyth Barr in 2008 in a part-time role. After leaving Victoria University she was taken on in a full-time capacity as an Investment Analyst. Chelsea is now an Equity Analyst, with her primary stock coverage the Retail and Healthcare sectors.Chelsea was rated in the 2014 INFINZ awards for her Retail coverage. Specific stock coverage includes; Abano Healthcare Group (ABA), Briscoe Group (BGR), EBOS Group (EBO), Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH), Hallenstein Glasson Holdings (HLG), Kathmandu Holdings (KMD), Michael Hill International (MHI), Pacific Edge (PEB), Pumpkin Patch (PPL), Restaurant Brands (RBD) and The Warehouse Group (WHS).
Chelsea studied a Bachelor of Commerce & Administration and Bachelor of Science at Victoria University, majoring in Money & Finance and Psychology. She gained a Victoria Graduate Award and went on to complete her Honours degree in Finance. She is currently working towards becoming a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), and has passed Levels I and II.

[skid]

Could be wrong but I think her involvement is little more than just working for ForBarr.
It appears that she is the analyst from ForBarr who made the forecast on PEB prior to this one and has followed up with a close up look at the facilities.
This "excursion" to Hershey has raised her level of awareness as to what and how PEB are actually doing things. She has had no hesitation in adding her impressions to the report.
Dont know what your education level is, skid, but she has miles more than most people, including myself.
Who paid for her trip is of little consequence.



Chelsea Leadbetter joined Forsyth Barr in 2008 in a part-time role. After leaving Victoria University she was taken on in a full-time capacity as an Investment Analyst. Chelsea is now an Equity Analyst, with her primary stock coverage the Retail and Healthcare sectors.Chelsea was rated in the 2014 INFINZ awards for her Retail coverage. Specific stock coverage includes; Abano Healthcare Group (ABA), Briscoe Group (BGR), EBOS Group (EBO), Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH), Hallenstein Glasson Holdings (HLG), Kathmandu Holdings (KMD), Michael Hill International (MHI), Pacific Edge (PEB), Pumpkin Patch (PPL), Restaurant Brands (RBD) and The Warehouse Group (WHS).
Chelsea studied a Bachelor of Commerce & Administration and Bachelor of Science at Victoria University, majoring in Money & Finance and Psychology. She gained a Victoria Graduate Award and went on to complete her Honours degree in Finance. She is currently working towards becoming a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), and has passed Levels I and II.

If you think this is new and important information--no problem-hopefully the market will agree with you

[MAC]

The Actos lawsuit verdict is in, seems that sufferers have been vindicated with the largest pharmaceutical verdict in US history with $9B in punitive damages !

http://www.diabetesandbladdercancer.com/?p=37

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/patient-resoucres/actos-and-bladder-cancer/

Poor buggers, cash is not enough if you have cancer.

[Minerbarejet]

If you think this is new and important information--no problem-hopefully the market will agree with you
Any information is important as it comes from people doing research and analysis. Consequently I will be keeping my eye open for any further analyst offerings. The market, per se, has a mind of its own, and is quite capable of rushing off at a tangent as per last year. Dont think any of my input here will influence anything or anybody for that matter.

[skid]

I dont think the market is the same animal as last year as far as rushing off on tangents--(the easy money is gone)-I believe those days are over(as your analyst alludes to (1.15 in 1 yr) but you never know.
As far as keeping an eye out--Im sure you will:)

[MAC]

That’s not a 12 month price target, it’s a present day base case valuation of Pacific Edge at $1.16 and a conservative one by Edison’s own explanation. That’s +40% from here for those that want it.

Watch for further ongoing incremental upgrades over time as that conservatism along with that of the other analysts relaxes.

[winner69]

That’s not a 12 month price target, it’s a present day base case valuation of Pacific Edge at $1.16 and a conservative one by Edison’s own explanation. That’s +40% from here for those that want it.

Watch for further ongoing incremental upgrades over time as that conservatism along with that of the other analysts relaxes.

Sheer nature of their DCF valuation is $1.16 now with 12.5% pa (their discount rate) gains going forward eh MAC.

A 12 month target would be $1.16 plus 12.5% giving $1.31 - even better eh

[BFG]

Sheer nature of their DCF valuation is $1.16 now with 12.5% pa (their discount rate) gains going forward eh MAC.

A 12 month target would be $1.16 plus 12.5% giving $1.31 - even better eh

Unfortunately, the market is always right, even when it's wrong eh? ;)

For those who don't believe in efficient market theory and subscribe to DCF, this is a great op to buy in before CMS coverage. Even the charts stack up to an uptrend.

Starting to wonder...

[MAC]

Sheer nature of their DCF valuation is $1.16 now with 12.5% pa (their discount rate) gains going forward eh MAC.

A 12 month target would be $1.16 plus 12.5% giving $1.31 - even better eh

Well yes the big casflows will be a year closer in a year’s time sure, but I would offer the following points.

There is also a lot of room for upgrades arising from a relaxation of conservatism, and also when they include new products ahead of their release into the market.

“We include sales for Cxbladder Detect and Cxbladder Triage, conservatively excluding additional pipeline products in our forecasts”

At some point in 2015 Edison will need to include the new product Cxbladder(prognosis) into the valuation, presently undergoing clinical trials and due to be launched in 2015.

Similarly, there are the Cxcolorectal and the Melanoma prospects which they also don’t yet include within their valuation and at some point will also need to do so.

They have also yet to value the European and Asian prospective markets.

“We also forecast sales into the US, New Zealand and Australia only and do not factor in potential added value for the company’s technology”

And then there is the matter of penetration and price point sensitivity analysis giving rise to their valuation range of $0.42 to $3.57.

“Our base case is on the conservative side in both regards, therefore we expect significant upside potential on our forecasts if Pacific Edge’s performance exceeds our cautious expectations.”

My feel is that they will keep stepping up forecasts and will probably fully value Pacific Edge within that range at some point, possibly when Pacific Edge become profitable at FY16.

But then, of course that range may well be higher by that time as they probably will have included at least some new products and markets.

[Baddarcy]

Saw this this morning, its treatment rather than detection.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11376633

[BFG]

For another very interesting Sorehead sucker scheme dreamed up to fund his lifestyle with 0.0005 cent shares, see TRU on the NZAX

There, fixed for you :)

[robbo24]

There, fixed for you :)

Chortle, ho ho ho.

[BFG]

Pietrade, your copy and paste advertising for TRU has been reported.

DYOR

[skid]

That’s not a 12 month price target, it’s a present day base case valuation of Pacific Edge at $1.16 and a conservative one by Edison’s own explanation. That’s +40% from here for those that want it.

Watch for further ongoing incremental upgrades over time as that conservatism along with that of the other analysts relaxes.

I was going by the last paragraph of the report we discussed--For Bar said they see PEB on a 12 month target price of $1.25 (sorry my 1.15 was a misprint)

[skid]

Saw this this morning, its treatment rather than detection.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11376633

One can see why a sexy product like that (with that sort of potential) would be bought.

[skid]

There, fixed for you :)

Be nice Moosie --its the Chrismas season:)

[skid]

Unfortunately, the market is always right, even when it's wrong eh? ;)

For those who don't believe in efficient market theory and subscribe to DCF, this is a great op to buy in before CMS coverage. Even the charts stack up to an uptrend.

Starting to wonder...

I think some of the chart gurus who have been around for a long time would have some comments about that --You certainly wouldnt go on TA alone on this one--there does seem to be some optimism around though--Im invested elsewhere but good luck to all.

[BFG]

I think some of the chart gurus who have been around for a long time would have some comments about that --You certainly wouldnt go on TA alone on this one--there does seem to be some optimism around though--Im invested elsewhere but good luck to all.

No, definitely not TA alone, unless doing quick trades, but I smell something brewing here...

[BFG]

Be nice Moosie --its the Chrismas season:)

Never, ever, to a Sorehead cohort/pumper.

If pietrade is truly interested in TRU and is not employed the company, a contractor associated with TRU or related to Sorehead in some way shape or form I would like them to commit to it, right here, right now, for the record. I'm sure STmod would interested as well in that info...

[Dentie]

just been researching NAN on the ASX.....another medical device company........ looks like an excellent prospect.
Current valuation of 295m with 21m revenue growing at 40%, about to make it's first profit, has partnered up with the big guns GE and Toshiba to name a few, multiple patents.
GE have taken a convertible notes interest in the company, current product selling in many different countries.
Just had to move to much larger manufacturing premises.
Looks extremely attractive when compared against some alternative valuations in the sector.

Snapiti - in case you haven't clicked yet ....this thread is titled "PEB - Pacific Edge Limited".

I don't believe you should be promoting or advertising products - other than PEB on this thread.

Please take your comment to the NAN thread - or if there's none ....start one up.

Merry Xmas!

[Dentie]

I thought most prudent investors would appreciate alternative medical device investments being mentioned on a medical device thread.
Have not seen you comment on TRU being mentioned in several posts today.
happy new year

ha ha ...funny boy!

I suppose the same could be said for KMD, HLG & PPL...or NZO & CUE...or RYM, SUM & MET???

[skid]

Never, ever, to a Sorehead cohort/pumper.

If pietrade is truly interested in TRU and is not employed the company, a contractor associated with TRU or related to Sorehead in some way shape or form I would like them to commit to it, right here, right now, for the record. I'm sure STmod would interested as well in that info...
Wow-moosie thats pretty serious stuff--I actually know him (PT)and can assure he's is not--but now youve got my curiosity up--I know its off topic(sorry) but whats the deal with this co?--(i dont know anything about them)

[skid]

Snapiti - in case you haven't clicked yet ....this thread is titled "PEB - Pacific Edge Limited".

I don't believe you should be promoting or advertising products - other than PEB on this thread.

Please take your comment to the NAN thread - or if there's none ....start one up.

Merry Xmas!

Actually I mentioned it earlier as well--more info the better eh?
It could help with your PEB research to see something to compare to.

NAN is basically where you all want PEB to be a bit further down the line---Its for comparisom.

Your sounding kind of emotionally involved there Dentie-- even a card carrying ,gold star holder like yourself ,could benefit from an open mind--maybe a bit of skin in both?

And a Merry Christmas to you too:)

[BFG]

Wow-moosie thats pretty serious stuff--I actually know him (PT)and can assure he's is not--but now youve got my curiosity up--I know its off topic(sorry) but whats the deal with this co?--(i dont know anything about them)

Not the place to discuss it but there is a thread on it. With Sorehead you need to take everything with a 100kg bag of salt. If PT isn't part of the Sorehead rort then he should have no problem disclosing so on here for the record.

As I said, DYOR and other, much more influential people have written about TRU, as well as it all being exposed on the TRU thread. Don't become a duck...

[Minerbarejet]

NAN has a technique and associated equipment for sterilizing ultrasound probes. This is preventative medicine to prevent infection from a single source, i.e. the probe
PEB has molecular diagnostic tests for the detection of various cancers. This is clinical medicine to determine if disease is present from multiple sources. i.e. the patients
If you were researching NAN would you use PEB as a comparison?
Doubt it.
So why would you use NAN as a comparison while researching PEB.

[skid]

They are both small companies in the medical world,with a similar market cap.
Whether its medical sterilization equipment or a diagnostic test -they are both products that need to be sold to the market.
There are various ways to do this -various marketing plans etc.
They dont have to be exactly the same product to make a comparison.(there are more similarities than differences in many ways)
One interesting comparison is that PEB has chosen to enter the market on its own--NAN has a distribution network with some heavyweights selling their product -that alone is an interesting comparison.
Why not compare 2 companies that are similar in many ways--You have researched PEB inside out--nothing wrong with looking at the outside world a bit as well.
No reason to be offended(if thats the case)

[Minerbarejet]

They are both small companies in the medical world,with a similar market cap.
Whether its medical sterilization equipment or a diagnostic test -they are both products that need to be sold to the market.
There are various ways to do this -various marketing plans etc.
They dont have to be exactly the same product to make a comparison.(there are more similarities than differences in many ways)
One interesting comparison is that PEB has chosen to enter the market on its own--NAN has a distribution network with some heavyweights selling their product -that alone is an interesting comparison.
Why not compare 2 companies that are similar in many ways--You have researched PEB inside out--nothing wrong with looking at the outside world a bit as well.
No reason to be offended(if thats the case)
NOAH FENCE
Taken or intended
You stick with NAN
Ill stick with PEB
I have not even started researching PEB
Let you know when I have.
Now where were we -ah yes PEB sharetrader post number 33:)

[Dentie]

Actually I mentioned it earlier as well--more info the better eh?
It could help with your PEB research to see something to compare to.

NAN is basically where you all want PEB to be a bit further down the line---Its for comparisom.

Your sounding kind of emotionally involved there Dentie-- even a card carrying ,gold star holder like yourself ,could benefit from an open mind--maybe a bit of skin in both?

And a Merry Christmas to you too:)

Thanks for your concern Skid but I'm all good thanks. We all "DOOR" differently and when I choose to make comparisons, I do it with oranges vs oranges.....can end up messy (& in tears??) otherwise. I focus on researching where my strengths are and leave all the fancy stuff to others and I can unashamedly state I am very happy holding my little wad of PEB!

My original comment was motivated by not wanting to see threads get cross referenced with other threads - for what I think are obvious reasons.

Emotionally involved? Nah .... otherwise I wouldn't have lightened myself of a few PEB back along ... when the ones who didn't "DTOR" wanted to take them off my hands at a nice price.

And, I don't have a gold card either...too young for it and don't need it!

Roll on 2015.

[skid]

Well others have already done that for you--but we wouldnt want to jinx it by looking at others would we..

Hopefully both will have a good year!

[skid]

NOAH FENCE
Taken or intended
You stick with NAN
Ill stick with PEB
I have not even started researching PEB
Let you know when I have.
Now where were we -ah yes PEB sharetrader post number 33:)

Well others have done that for you--and we wouldnt want to jinx it by looking at others would we..

[skid]

Thanks for your concern Skid but I'm all good thanks. We all "DOOR" differently and when I choose to make comparisons, I do it with oranges vs oranges.....can end up messy (& in tears??) otherwise. I focus on researching where my strengths are and leave all the fancy stuff to others and I can unashamedly state I am very happy holding my little wad of PEB!

My original comment was motivated by not wanting to see threads get cross referenced with other threads - for what I think are obvious reasons.

Emotionally involved? Nah .... otherwise I wouldn't have lightened myself of a few PEB back along ... when the ones who didn't "DTOR" wanted to take them off my hands at a nice price.

And, I don't have a gold card either...too young for it and don't need it!

Roll on 2015.

Then I stand corrected dents--You sold when it seemed the time was right--That shows that yours was not a ''hold at any cost'' theory
and thats a good thing IMO.

The only reason I mentioned ''the other'' is in case anyone wanted to go to ''the other'' thread and do research between the two.
Experienced investors do it all the time---Its not ''stepping out''on the wife---just research.

Hell ..I might be buying back in, in the future--unless some in ''the club'' write to the nZX and ban me from buying :eek2:

[Minerbarejet]

Well others have done that for you--and we wouldnt want to jinx it by looking at others would we..Crikey now you really have me worried. I was unaware that mysticism through good luck and jinxes ( or is that jinxii) formed part of research in PEB. If it applies to NAN then there is no foretelling what might happen.

Whats this "we" Kemosabi?:)

[Dentie]

Hell ..I might be buying back in, in the future--unless some in ''the club'' write to the nZX and ban me from buying :eek2:

I don't know who "the club" are Skid, but I'll let you know as soon as I'm ready to sell some more and we can do an off market transfer if you like.....

Oh...forgot...:D:D and, seeing it's Xmas...one for Snapiti...:t_up:

[skid]

[QUOTE=Minerbarejet;523607]Crikey now you really have me worried. I was unaware that mysticism through good luck and jinxes ( or is that jinxii) formed part of research in PEB. If it applies to NAN then there is no foretelling what might happen.

Whats this "we" Kemosabi?:)[/QUOT

"WE" is ''the club'' Tonto----C'mon guys you know who ''the club'' is--just go back and read the posts---who comes to the rescue when someone questions something about ''your'' company-- who gets upset (and sometimes bitter when the SP seems to have a mind of its own)--who gloats when the SP rises.

Who gets upset when someone says something that upsets the status quo--that somehow threatens -(thats where the jinx comes in)

Why get aggravated at a comparison ?--its not downgrading the product--mostly just comparing market strategies--some would welcome the research.

You should be content that Mac says theres a 40% profit if you want it--(did you hear that Newbies--easy as that)

I still think PEB is a good company---(just not so sure about that growth curve)

We'll just have to wait and see how it goes with the big outfits --whether they come on board--what kind of a deal they strike--and how it actually translates into sales numbers.

Who knows,maybe Santa is wrapping up a sweet deal at this very moment,in which case there will be
''high fives'' all around the C....ok I wont say it again:D

[pietrade]

Never, ever, to a Sorehead cohort/pumper.

If pietrade is truly interested in TRU and is not employed the company, a contractor associated with TRU or related to Sorehead in some way shape or form I would like them to commit to it, right here, right now, for the record. I'm sure STmod would interested as well in that info...
Let me add some info which might show a more complete picture - thanks to Chalkie's research. http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/63325538/tech-company-leftovers-lose-share-appeal

[skid]

NOAH FENCE
Taken or intended
You stick with NAN
Ill stick with PEB
I have not even started researching PEB
Let you know when I have.
Now where were we -ah yes PEB sharetrader post number 33:)

Sounds fair enough to me

PS funny you should mention PEB post no, 33 (go back and read it)

[Minerbarejet]

Sounds fair enough to me

PS funny you should mention PEB post no, 33 (go back and read it)
Yes quite hilarious. :lol:
Hopefully you have read it properly and can find a key factor contained therein.
Now WE have you pointed in the right direction perhaps a bit of light reading for the next month or so.
12300 posts shouldnt take too long.
Cheers
Miner

[Minerbarejet]

Note that the 2008 annual report contains references to NMP22 which is the Matritech test. PEB claims early indications that their test will be 90% accurate for stage one bladder cancer compared to 47% for NMP22. They also intend to test against NMP22 in the clinical trial.

I've also had a look at Genomic Health (http://investor.genomichealth.com/annuals.cfm) (Nasdaq GHDX) as a comparison raised by PEB for their breast cancer assay. It looks as though they raised over $53m in their float in 2005 to support commercialisation of their breast cancer assay. They use a 21 gene panel, so a little more complex than PEB's bladder cancer with 4 genes. In 2005, their revenue rose to $5m from $0.3m a year earlier, then $29m in 2006 and $64m in 2007. This seems to be nearly all on the back of their one commercial diagnostic. The most recent quarterly report shows revenues of $23m for three month period - however, the company still managed to report a $7m loss, with the cost of sales and marketing being a massive $12m. In fact, the annual losses have barely changed over the years, from a loss of $25m in 2004, through to a loss of $27m in 2008. While this can be largely attributed to the cost of sales and marketing and expensing of R&D, it is clearly not a rate of loss that a small NZ company could expect to maintain. Market cap of GHDX is currently $635m, with significant net cash.And the quote of Lizard makes another cameo appearance. To me the key of what has gone on with PEB lies with a phrase in the second to last sentence. Whilst Matritech and Genomic Health have expensing of R&D done in the USA, PEB has the advantage of R&D done in NZ, which continues to this day as part of the agreement with Otago University Cancer Research.
Here is a little something for Christmas that I havent seen posted as yet.
http://www.otago.ac.nz/otagomagazine/issue39/features/otago080116.html
Cheers
Miner

[Casino]

You think PEB and genomic health has a much higher margin than NAN product....... how do you explain then that NAN is about to break into profit with just 21m in revenue.

Hancocks was probably referring to gross margins, which is what's relevant here. PEB scales better than NAN.

[MAC]

Hancocks was probably referring to gross margins, which is what's relevant here. PEB scales better than NAN.

Edison have forecast PEB gross margins at FY15 to be 85% and at FY16 to be 87%. Pacific Edge forecast was 81%, pretty tough for any company to beat that.

[BFG]

I find it funny that it's nothing but all good news, flowers and rosy views here on PEB from some posters, yet as soon as things are challenged through another stock (a loose comparison at best), there is nothing but spewing negativity and hate for the stock.

Strange that some of these comments can be applied to PEB, but it is never talked about in this way...


Don’t get suckered in by the Hype and spin from this company - I see you are still blatantly ramping this stock in a pump and dump exercise. But, I wouldn’t deliberately provoke because I know some are emotionally attached to this share. Oh, what is this easily replicable bit of kit that uses hydrogen peroxide to sterilise ultrasonic probes – one competitor is the lowly alcohol wipe (ha ha).

Clinics and hospitals are notoriously slow to change and then there is the risk of litigation from a failed cleaning cycle.

The ultrasonic sensor manufacturers are not sitting back and letting this upstart rumble their party and the new generation have the cleaning cycle included with off the shelf consumables because they can see where parasite products destroy their product line. Then of course there is the sales and marketing - big pharma clip the ticket big time and pocket loot from these sales?

Let’s just see where the sales go and I think a comparison to HP printers and fancy air fresheners (PEB thread) is a great analogy, because it is certainly not earth shattering technology. :D :D :D :D :D :D

Just remember people, not all comments are equal, and to have that big bag of salt ready to take with every dose!

[Casino]

gross margins can be grossly manipulated....and quite frankly gross margins don't mean anything.
What matters is EPS..... that's gross margins less all other expenses the company choose to leave out to come up with a gross margin.
In my experience these other expenses can lead to no margin at all therefore no or often negative EPS.
Also don't you mean PEB hopefully/should scale better than NAN.

Can we agree that pissing in a cup is as easy as signing up for a Xero account? Xero and PEB scale with every new customer (better than NAN) because the economies of scale are huge (bigger than NAN's). EPS is the least useful measure to value a start-up. Should company owners gift PEB to the market because EPS is negative? Would you? What matters are debt, cashflow and revenue growth.

The reason we have a lot of friction on this thread aren't thin-skinned bulls. It seems the weakest arguments are repeated the most which distracts from valid criticism. What needs to be said is that economies of scale and a promise don't guarantee a good investment. There is a lot that can go wrong. PEB is a high-risk play and people shouldn't bet money they can't loose. In a functioning market the risk/reward ratios of PEB and NAN should be the same. One could argue that NAN is less risky and therefore preferable. You may disagree with the market and see NAN as the better risk/reward proposition. But you cannot talk away PEB's huge potential.

[Dentie]

What matters are debt, cashflow and revenue growth.

Very exackery!

[MAC]

Seems pretty fair Casino, if being a growth investor as opposed to a value investor is about assessing a stocks position on the risk reward curve and mitigating that risk where possible, than it is difficult to compare two companies directly unless one has absolutely and thoroughly researched both.

Thanks Pietrade though for highlighting NAN, I might have a look at that over the holidays, although I’m not sure it’s generally the right time to be in anything ASX, there’s a reason for the AUD being where it is.

Risk is a perception at the end of the day, most initially assume the worst and then see how far good research may alleviate that risk, and everyone as an individual and at a different spot along in that process. But, at the end of the day perhaps the Oracle could be right too;

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" – Warren Buffet

[Casino]

Seems pretty fair Casino, if being a growth investor as opposed to a value investor is about assessing a stocks position on the risk reward curve and mitigating that risk where possible, than it is difficult to compare two companies directly unless one has absolutely and thoroughly researched both.

Thanks Pietrade though for highlighting NAN, I might have a look at that over the holidays, although I’m not sure it’s generally the right time to be in anything ASX, there’s a reason for the AUD being where it is.

Risk is a perception at the end of the day, most initially assume the worst and then see how far good research may alleviate that risk, and everyone as an individual and at a different spot along in that process. But, at the end of the day perhaps the Oracle could be right too;

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" – Warren Buffet

My point was that NAN and PEB are not directly comparable because one is medtech and the other biotech:
https://atpbio.wordpress.com/2011/09...-from-medtech/ (https://atpbio.wordpress.com/2011/09/22/lessons-from-medtech/)

Medtech might be a better fit for some/most but it's silly to criticise a biotech company for not being a medtech company. Scrutiny should be based on whether it is a good or bad biotech play.

To sharetrader posters/readers who have no experience with small biotechs, stay away in bull markets! Most small (bio)techs fail. Wait for a big correction/crash/financial crisis/depression and look for bargains amongst survivors.

[MAC]

Yep, agree that the molecular diagnostic and medical device sectors are different and require different treatments.

I do think though that most growth investors may not probably agree with you that the only way of investing in risk is to wait for a global financial crises to come along.

There are generally always opportunities on the risk reward curve, and successful growth companies will progressively de-risk in steps as they work through R&D milestones, regulatory approvals, commercial roll out milestones, each offering an associated step-up in value as they go.

Some like Hancock’s who have been researching Pacific Edge for 10 years are probably more knowledgeable than most of us in assessing the risk/reward, certainly more so than some of the flippant folk on this thread who research very little but think they know it all.

It’s served him very well too, probably got in with a 10c spread or something like that with all those rights issues along the way, and the company is just now at the beginning of the revenue curve, with at least another five years of potential yet to be taken up.

[Casino]

Actually the original comparison was not about the product. It was about current market caps of companies based on future sales expectations. The product is irrelevant. The point was both companies were valued the same, yet PEB only has a forecast of $100m in revenues whereas NAN has a forecast of $300m in revenues. However, NAN is much further down the road in achieving that revenue forecast and has a product that is accepted by customers all over the world, whereas PEB is still struggling to get sales traction. Should both companies in this instance be valued the same, or is PEB over-valued considering it hasnt achieved anything yet? From a risk/reward perspective, even assuming that the EPS of both companies will be the same in 5 years (NAN high revenue, lower margins; PEB lower revenue, higher margins) NAN should still be favoured over PEB simply because it is more likely to deliver the expected outcome based on current sales momentum then PEB. This may change over time, but not tomorrow. That is why one compares companies - not to compare products but to compare future revenue and EPS outcomes and then decide which one is the better investment based on a risk/reward probability. Capital is limited, it needs to be deployed into companies with a high certainty of return, or else you lose it.

Most of your points are arbitrary and circular. I don't want to play devil's advocate and suggest that PEB will yield more returns than NAN. I haven't research NAN and I don't know what the future holds for PEB. But if PEB turns out to be a bad investment, it has nothing to do with how it compaared to NAN. Besides the world is bigger than PEB and NAN.

[Casino]

Yep, agree that the molecular diagnostic and medical device sectors are different and require different treatments.

I do think though that most growth investors may not probably agree with you that the only way of investing in risk is to wait for a global financial crises to come along.

There are generally always opportunities on the risk reward curve, and successful growth companies will progressively de-risk in steps as they work through R&D milestones, regulatory approvals, commercial roll out milestones, each offering an associated step-up in value as they go.

Some like Hancock’s who have been researching Pacific Edge for 10 years are probably more knowledgeable than most of us in assessing the risk/reward, certainly more so than some of the flippant folk on this thread who research very little but think they know it all.

It’s served him very well too, probably got in with a 10c spread or something like that with all those rights issues along the way, and the company is just now at the beginning of the revenue curve, with at least another five years of potential yet to be taken up.

Experienced growth investors who do thorough research and FA know what they're doing. It just takes one catastrophe and all the well-meant advice is stained.

[Casino]

Damn. I think I just became a porcine choral master!

I still like your posts.

[MAC]

Yeah, that's what folk say isn’t it 'no risk no reward', and I would agree that some companies do carry binary risk at the time of their inception, at some point though along the road to commercialisation that binary nature falls away and it becomes more a matter of degrees of efficacy and sensitivity analysis around that though wouldn't you say ?

If one invested in Pacific Edge three years ago at a defined point on the risk reward curve, a higher point than at present, then yes the risk was greater, and well yes so was the reward.

Over those three years the following significant de-risking events have been satisfied, and some minor ones in addition too;

> Clinical trials
> Laboratory approvals
> US CLIA regulatory approvals
> Clinical setting user programmes
> Full capitalisation

And, the share price over those three years elevated in response from 20c too, well quite an undervalued 84c at the present today (+320%).

Looking forward, the next few major de-risking events in the sequence IMO would seem to be;

> Final CMS acceptance (some clinicians may treat this as a badge of confidence)
> KP user programme roll over (the first one is important as a demonstration model for others)
> Profitability (FY16 according to the analysts)

However, as a matter of note, there is now also the matter of diversification through the development of further products, further de-risking in itself, Cxcolorectal being market ready, the melanoma product still in trials but a companion partner could come along at any time going forward too.

[Casino]

Yeah, that's what folk say isn’t it 'no risk no reward', and I would agree that some companies do carry binary risk at the time of their inception, at some point though along the road to commercialisation that binary nature falls away and it becomes more a matter of degrees of efficacy and sensitivity analysis around that though wouldn't you say ?

If one invested in Pacific Edge three years ago at a defined point on the risk reward curve, a higher point than at present, then yes the risk was greater, and well yes so was the reward.

Over those three years the following significant de-risking events have been satisfied, and some minor ones in addition too;

> Clinical trials
> Laboratory approvals
> US CLIA regulatory approvals
> Clinical setting user programmes
> Full capitalisation

And, the share price over those three years elevated in response from 20c too, well quite an undervalued 84c at the present today (+320%).

Looking forward, the next few major de-risking events in the sequence IMO would seem to be;

> Final CMS acceptance (some clinicians may treat this as a badge of confidence)
> KP user programme roll over (the first one is important as a demonstration model for others)
> Profitability (FY16 according to the analysts)

However, as a matter of note, there is now also the matter of diversification through the development of further products, further de-risking in itself, Cxcolorectal being market ready, the melanoma product still in trials but a companion partner could come along at any time going forward too.

Every small biotech will tell you the same thing. It's always tailwind to get to el dorado. Once we have significant free cashflows, it will turn into a juggernaut. No doubt. But until then, there isn't a lot of room for error and colorectal won't help with de-risking.

[skid]

Yes it is really interesting (not so much funny as such), it clearly shows that Genomic Health’s OncoType DX breast cancer test is a very very successful gene test. It is their main area of discovery (breast cancer) very similar to Pacific Edge focussing on their bladder cancer suite of tests.

Genomic Health have a prostate & colon test in their product pipeline.

Post 33 also advises the revenue growth from Genomic Health:

2005 $5,000,000
2006 $29,000,000
2007 $64,000,000

And from the Annual Report 2013:

2012 $235,000,000
2013 $261,000,000

So, this means that lean and mean Pacific Edge with 12 Account managers covering some of their identified sales territories to prospective high volume users may have an exciting future after all. And because we like comparisons on this thread, Pacific Edge & Genomic Healths' gene tests have a much higher margin in their product than NAN (equipment).

So if they sell the same amount of their product,they will make more money--agreed NAN would have to sell more of its products(which constitute 40% of revenue) Guess thats why they have big name distributors to help.--Why do you think companies like Miel would have partnered up with NAN--Seems strange if the product is so inferior.

Nothing against Genomic health--it was just light humor in terms of their cash burn.

[MAC]

Ah well, good luck to you Casino, each to their own I guess, as KW said one must comparatively decide where to put ones hard earned savings.

It can depend on ones life situation can’t it also, I waited to invest in Pacific Edge until they successfully achieved their clinical trials, one of the biggest de-risking events for biotech’s, that’s about my comfort level as far as being a growth investor in the biotech sector goes.

As for a point in time when we see significant free cashflows, well yes, at that point Pacific Edge would be cyclical and would have a cyclical share price.

And, for some, depending on their life situation, that is a better point on the risk reward curve for them to invest, each to their own once again.

[Minerbarejet]

The KP User Programme is for cxBladder Triage.
Therefore it is the first one for this product.

[MAC]

It's also the first US HMO user programme, quite significant in that they have a very high proportion of in house clinical facilities with 38 of their own full scale hospitals, 190 of their own urologists and 700 oncologist treating cancer generally. So, they actually both insure and medically provide for their own 9.5M policy holders.

Thus a good commercial test bed for product adoption and also for a demonstration of the cost savings to HMO's and insurers in using the product.

It seems that KP have a reputation in the US for leading the way with many clinical initiatives too, possibly perhaps just because they are both an insurer and a medical provider they can foster that innovation better.

Anyway, yes, it would be a big milestone IMO too.

[Casino]

Ah well, good luck to you Casino, each to their own I guess, as KW said one must comparatively decide where to put ones hard earned savings.

It can depend on ones life situation can’t it also, I waited to invest in Pacific Edge until they successfully achieved their clinical trials, one of the biggest de-risking events for biotech’s, that’s about my comfort level as far as being a growth investor in the biotech sector goes.

As for a point in time when we see significant free cashflows, well yes, at that point Pacific Edge would be cyclical and would have a cyclical share price.

And, for some, depending on their life situation, that is a better point on the risk reward curve for them to invest, each to their own once again.

It's more nuanced than that. CMS coverage is synonymous with free cashflows I think. The question is whether that will happen in the near future (next 6 months) and how likely are further CRs. Timing is a factor. Is it riskier to stay out and miss CMS coverage or to be in and eventually get diluted?

[MAC]

It's more nuanced than that. CMS coverage is synonymous with free cashflows I think. The question is whether that will happen in the near future (next 6 months) and how likely are further CRs. Timing is a factor. Is it riskier to stay out and miss CMS coverage or to be in and eventually get diluted?

I don't know Casino, I'm already in and comfortable, I guess that becomes your own decision.

You might take some comfort from Pacific Edge having already got as far with CMS as being a listed provider and having been given the nod to be able to stack invoices awaiting acceptance.

On the HY analyst conference call David Darling seemed quite relaxed about the time frame, perhaps because Pacific Edge intrinsically have internal confidence and are accumulating those invoices anyway. He basically said that they are working with CMS who are accumulating a portfolio of clinical validity, something I'm sure they do for all new diagnostic tests.

My personal view, and your own view is welcome too, but it seems to me that the performance of the test is all good, but it's just new and CMS know that Pacific Edge have two more US based clinical studies about to come to fruition.

If I was CMS I would wait for those two studies also, just because they can, and for Pacific Edge, as long as they can keep stacking up those invoices, they probably are not all that concerned about the timing, price point will be important to them though, another reason not to rush/push CMS.

I'd leave it to the traders to say if or how much the SP would jump on such an announcement, can't help with that or whether it's better to go before or instead to try and catch the boing.

Anyway, I wish yourself and all who have constructive all the best for the jolly season !

[skid]

Yeah, that's what folk say isn’t it 'no risk no reward', and I would agree that some companies do carry binary risk at the time of their inception, at some point though along the road to commercialisation that binary nature falls away and it becomes more a matter of degrees of efficacy and sensitivity analysis around that though wouldn't you say ?

If one invested in Pacific Edge three years ago at a defined point on the risk reward curve, a higher point than at present, then yes the risk was greater, and well yes so was the reward.

Over those three years the following significant de-risking events have been satisfied, and some minor ones in addition too;

> Clinical trials
> Laboratory approvals
> US CLIA regulatory approvals
> Clinical setting user programmes
> Full capitalisation

And, the share price over those three years elevated in response from 20c too, well quite an undervalued 84c at the present today (+320%).

Looking forward, the next few major de-risking events in the sequence IMO would seem to be;

> Final CMS acceptance (some clinicians may treat this as a badge of confidence)
> KP user programme roll over (the first one is important as a demonstration model for others)
> Profitability (FY16 according to the analysts)

However, as a matter of note, there is now also the matter of diversification through the development of further products, further de-risking in itself, Cxcolorectal being market ready, the melanoma product still in trials but a companion partner could come along at any time going forward too.

I think you may be oversimplifying this Mac.
Surely there would have been more risk last Feb.-If you want to throw % around then the SP is approx 100% less now.

The point is ,there are other factors at work in terms of developing a product and selling it (and the markets in general)

Hancocks; and you as well have done a wonderful job of researching the product(and full credits to the Otago scientists)

But that does not necessarily mean that either of you know about the marketing side of things--(in that sense, Hancock"s 10 yrs of research does not definitely mean he knows completely the risk -reward factor) It means he and you know the product-- But do you know much about marketing and the mood of the market?

I believe that is why you have both homed completely into the product side of things in terms of the comparison.

We could get into a debate on which product has taken the most lab work and research or which is best for man kind --but without taking into account the marketing strategy its not the full equation.

I think ,in a nutshell PEB is about the product(and hoping that if trails are passed it will sell itself) and NAN is about marketing strategy (so in that sense they are very different)

You can trash the product all you want ,but there is no getting around the fact that NAN has a much bigger market at this time.

As has been suggested ,this could change in the near future ...but we are now.

[Dentie]

can you point me in the right direction for this info as the statements I have read from the company do not mention that the user program is for triage
www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/254465 (http://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/254465)

Look at page three of this Snapiti...http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/assets/annual-reports/PEL-HY-REPORT-NZX-FINAL-17Dec2014.pdf

Merry Xmas!

[Minerbarejet]

So a change of tact.... now pushing cx bladder triage in user programs......
This all makes sense after previous user programs with cx bladder detect did not result in the roll over paid use of the product they where hoping for.
Criky I hope they don't shelve cx bladder detect. Well that pretty well sums it up for the year. Im off to a summer decyphering course next week so I can participate more fully on the PEB thread. The rest of the time I will be rebuilding my brick wall.
Merry Christmas everyone and Happy New Year

[skid]

Merry Christmas to you too and to all ,and lets hope 2015 makes us all happy. :t_up:

[golden city]

let's hope some good news comming after new year..

[klid]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/64682339/check-out-the-reshaped-postquake-christchurch

I take interest at the first building and the the wording around that:

"1. Forte Health: Last year began with the official opening of Christchurch's newest private hospital, (http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/city-centre/9648533/A-glimpse-inside-new-private-hospital) Forte Health, in January. The "glass-encased fortress" on Kilmore St is the Oxford Clinic's offspring, and targets short-stay, less complex procedures from ear, nose and throat, urology, orthopaedic and gynaecology specialties. All of Christchurch's urologists, almost all of its ear, nose and throat surgeons and at least half of its orthopaedic surgeons are understood to be shareholders in the multimillion-dollar venture."

Seems like these urologists are a tight bunch?

[klid]

Didn't mean to incite disorder :)

[winner69]

Didn't mean to incite disorder :)

Was an interesting debate while it lasted.

Wrong thread obviously

[Whipmoney]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/64682339/check-out-the-reshaped-postquake-christchurch

I take interest at the first building and the the wording around that:

"1. Forte Health: Last year began with the official opening of Christchurch's newest private hospital, (http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/city-centre/9648533/A-glimpse-inside-new-private-hospital) Forte Health, in January. The "glass-encased fortress" on Kilmore St is the Oxford Clinic's offspring, and targets short-stay, less complex procedures from ear, nose and throat, urology, orthopaedic and gynaecology specialties. All of Christchurch's urologists, almost all of its ear, nose and throat surgeons and at least half of its orthopaedic surgeons are understood to be shareholders in the multimillion-dollar venture."

Seems like these urologists are a tight bunch?

I think that's because most of Christchurch's urologists work for Urology Associates.. Co-investing makes sense.

[Abacus]

I think that's because most of Christchurch's urologists work for Urology Associates.. Co-investing makes sense.
Generally speaking, medical specialists in fields which involve none general operations (ORL, urology, opthalmology) need specialised equipment which costs a lot of $. But the eqpt need constant maintainance and replacement as medical science improves. It makes sense to come together for a common cause. However, these costs keep increasing ( witness the advent of robotic surgery).

[Minerbarejet]

Well , now the hallucinatory heated holiday haze of the last month seems to be nearly over, where to from here for PEB?

It would appear from the stock pick contest that some hitherto unimpressed bears have had a "change of tack" for starters.

Share price seems to anchored in that mid 80 range awaiting news of progress with CMS, VA, Australia, Spain, Triage into USA, LUG signups, Kaiser Permanente triage trial, all the while building up for the next announcement out of left field that nobody ever sees coming.

Best wishes to all for the New Year
Miner

[Minerbarejet]

I think that's because most of Christchurch's urologists work for Urology Associates.. Co-investing makes sense.
Urology Associates were the ones involved in the recent clinical trial of cxbladder conducted by the Canterbury DHB. I think we await an official release of information confirming the clinical outcome still, dont recall seeing anything recently.

[Minerbarejet]

This just sprang up on Genome web regarding the LDT proposed draft which could affect PEB in the long term.

Sounds like the FDA are getting a bit of curry on this and by the time they get it done, dusted and ready to implement I wouldnt be surprised to see PEB paying a dividend

Bit of light reading for a hot weekend.

At Workshop, Labs Tell FDA to Let them Tweak LDTs; Give Their Take on Labeling and Clinical ValidityJan 09, 2015

| Turna Ray (https://www.genomeweb.com/about-us/our-staff/turna-ray)




NEW YORK (GenomeWeb) – "The proposal we issued a few months ago, is just that. It's a proposal," Jeff Shuren, director of the US Food and Drug Administration's Center for Devices and Radiological Health, said yesterday at the start of a two-day workshop to discuss the agency's draft guidance on regulation of laboratory-developed tests (LDTs). "We do not claim we have gotten everything right."
In response, for the next eight hours, lab professionals, pathologists, and even a few diagnostic firms that have taken tests through the FDA regulatory process, pointed out everything that they believe the agency has gotten wrong in the risk-based, draft framework (http://www.fda.gov/downloads/MedicalDevices/DeviceRegulationandGuidance/GuidanceDocuments/UCM416685.pdf) it issued in October.





The main failing, according to those that object to being regulated, is that the proposed regulations show the FDA still doesn't get lab professionals. These certified medical experts develop the tests, track patients' samples to make sure they're analyzed correctly, and they work closely with doctors to interpret what the results mean for a patient's disease or condition. And all the while, they are tweaking and making adjustments to ensure the tests are up to date and accurate.
The FDA has said it has the authority to regulate LDTs under the Medical Device Amendments of 1976 because LDTs are devices. The labs have countered that while the tests they provide use FDA-regulated device components, such as reagents, the critical role of lab professionals in furnishing those tests makes the whole operation a service, and not the type of kit or physical article that the FDA traditionally regulates. Moreover, LDTs are already regulated by CMS under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) and other bodies such as the College of American Pathologists, they argued.
FDA's limited understanding of lab professionals' involvement, stakeholders said, is reflected in the draft guidance, in discordant labeling requirements, burdensome test registration expectations, and too stringent clinical validity definitions. Forcing LDTs to fit the rubric of FDA regulations would hinder labs' ability to offer new tests for markers not gauged by FDA-approved kits, to quickly provide tests during infectious disease outbreaks such as the Ebola crisis, and to cost-effectively add new tests to state-mandated newborn screening panels, or furnish timely results for cancer patients awaiting personalized treatment strategies.
"From the lab perspective … you have to be realistic that most clinical laboratories are not set up, as you've been told over and over again, as reagent and device manufacturers," Girish Putcha, director of laboratory science at Medicare contractor Palmetto GBA and founding medical director of Orion Genomics, told FDA during the workshop, which was webcast.
"In the lab world we have very detailed and intricate standard operating procedures that we are required by CLIA, by CAP … that starts taking in … beyond what's there on the [test] label of the box … of the kit or the reagent, and adds the personnel component, adds the interpretive component, adds the clinical validity or use," said Catherine Hammett, who at the meeting was representing the American Association for Clinical Chemistry and who also directs the University of North Carolina HealthCare's core Lab at McLendon Clinical Laboratories. "All of these are present within our laboratories, so from a lab perspective, we become unclear [about] what more are we going to be expected to do."
Perhaps the most worrying of FDA requirements for labs is that they have to prove to the agency that their tests are clinically valid — that the test accurately detects a disease or the intended phenotype. The FDA has stated that under CLIA, tests are evaluated only for analytical validity, whether the test measures a specific analyte or marker.
But laboratory professionals speaking at the meeting took exception to that, maintaining that they deal with the clinical validity of tests all the time, and asked the FDA to be more flexible in how it considers the concept. "Clinical validity is an ever-moving target … [and] knowing and applying levels of evidence to LDTs is part of the practice of medicine," Dara Aisner, pathologist and co-director of the Molecular Correlates Laboratory at the University of Colorado, said at the meeting.
As an example, she cited a study that found 34 percent of patients with BRAF V600K mutations are deemed mutation negative by an FDA-approved BRAF kit. But a test developed in her lab can more accurately identify these mutations, she said. Roche, which markets the FDA-approved Cobas BRAFV600 mutation test, has doneconcordance analysis (https://www.genomeweb.com/mdx/roche-says-fda-approved-braf-test-better-sanger-based-ldts-it-enough-sway-labs) against Sanger sequencing and has reported that the Cobas test had a lower failure rate than Sanger, was more sensitive in detecting V600E mutations than Sanger, "and detected a majority of V600K mutations" in the study cohort. But concordance studies of the Cobas tests by other labs have yielded varying results.
Citing another example, Aisner said that an FDA-approved test for assessing ALK mutations yielded a negative result for a patient, but her lab "noted an unusual pattern," tested the patient with alternative LDTs, and found the patient was mutation positive, thereby enabling treatment with the lung cancer drug Xalkori (crizotinib). "Clinical validity is information that is accumulated over time, requires adoption into medical practice by trained, thinking professionals, and comes in many forms, and requires flexibility and nimbleness," Aisner said.
During a panel discussion, other speakers reflected on the clinical validity requirement. Most seemed reassured that FDA in its draft guidance said it would accept data from published literature on markers gauged by high and moderate risk LDTs, which would require premarket review. This would limit the burden on LDT developers to conduct new studies, noted Andrew Fish, executive director of the diagnostic manufacturers' industry group AdvaMedDx. Fish was among the minority presenters at the meeting who supported FDA's LDT guidance.
Cecile Janssens, professor of translational epidemiology at Emory University, noted that when establishing clinical validity of a test, labs need to define who is being tested and for what purpose.
In FDA's terms, the patients that a lab tests with an LDT and the claims the labs make about the test would be reflected in the device labeling. However, typical device labeling requirements also didn't stick well with lab industry representatives. Once a test's intended use is printed on an FDA green-lighted label, any other uses outside the scope of the label is considered off-label. As such, stakeholders worried at the meeting that FDA would hold labs accountable for off-label promotion if doctors ordered LDTs for non-FDA cleared or approved indications.
Putcha noted that in the lab community off-label testing happens frequently. UNC's Hammett recalled that an FDA official had called her a year ago and asked how her lab regulated physician ordering. "There are very few mechanisms we have in place that allow us to prohibit off-label use," she said. "I get in over 5,000 samples in the core laboratory. The testing that's ordered on each of those 5,000 samples is done automatically through our electronic medical records system."
Hammett further reflected that if labeling is intended to inform doctors about the intended use of a test, they don't generally use them and labeling won't affect their interactions with the lab. "They call us when they have questions with respect to the results and the context in which they are looking at the results," Hammett said.
Meanwhile, Aisner offered the example of a patient suffering from Erdheim-Chester Disease (ECD), a condition where the body overproduces infection fighting cells and causes organ failure in the absence of treatment. Her lab at CU decided to test for BRAF V600E mutations, which approximately 50 percent of ECD patients harbor. Based on the recent research, some researchers have hypothesized that the rare disease may be more akin to cancer instead of an autoimmune disorder. This LDT found the patient was positive for the BRAF mutation, and following a month of treatment with a melanoma drug, the BRAF inhibitor Zelboraf (vemurafenib), she had a near complete response.
"If the FDA guidance were implemented, I likely would not be able to employ my LDT," Aisner said. "Use of an FDA-approved test for this indication would be considered off label. So, there would essentially be no test for patients like this."
Given lab professionals' proclivity towards tweaking their in-house tests, industry representatives were particularly concerned with language in the LDT guidance stipulating that certain changes made to approved or cleared tests would need to be resubmitted for regulatory review. The FDA states in the draft guidance that when a clinical lab alters a test in a way that can change its intended use or its performance, for example, by altering the type of specimen analyzed or the target population it is meant for, then the lab is subject to premarket requirements.
Industry representatives advised FDA to convene an advisory committee of lab professionals who could provide the agency further input on what constitutes a substantive change to an LDT and would require fresh premarket review. "Playing" with the different components of an LDT is what laboratory scientists and medical pathologists do, said Elissa Passiment, executive VP of the American Society for Clinical Laboratory Science. "We can tell when we have messed up the test," she said. "We also know when we've tweaked a pH, or we've changed the buffer, and we've got something and when we haven't gotten something."
Passiment echoed the sentiments of several other speakers at the meeting who advised FDA to allow lab professionals to continue to develop their LDTs as they have been under CLIA for decades, and focus its regulatory efforts on multi-marker, high-complexity, algorithm-based tests. Of course, the FDA tried to regulate this subset of LDTs and issued a draft guidance in 2007. Back then, such tests were called in vitro diagnostic multivariate index assays. But according to the FDA, it abandoned that plan, and at the lab industry's request chose to promulgate more comprehensive LDT regulation.
"I think what you're here for is to worry about the stuff that we've never seen before," Passiment told FDA. The tests "that folks out here can't explain to you because it's so dense and buried in software and mojo that no one has any idea what's going on except the person that developed it."
The risk that faulty or unproven LDTs pose to the public's health is one of FDA's top reasons for regulating LDTs. One of the primary examples in this regard involved an algorithm-based test called Ovasure. The FDA sent awarning letter (https://www.genomeweb.com/dxpgx/fda-calls-labcorp%E2%80%99s-homebrew-ovasure-dx-%E2%80%98high-risk%E2%80%99-says-validation-%E2%80%98inadequate%E2%80%99) to LabCorp in 2008, noting that the ovarian cancer risk detection test wasn't appropriately validated for women at high risk for the disease. The test had a high false-positive rate and based on the results, some women with benign masses got their ovaries removed. "The Ovasure example may very well be why we're sitting here," said Emily Volk, a member of CAP's board of governors.
While Ovasure would have been categorized as a test that served an unmet medical need, it still posed a significant risk to patients, speakers pointed out, and it illustrates the need for a way to track LDT-related adverse events. Under FDA's draft guidance, traditional LDTs (tests developed and performed at a single lab), tests deemed low risk or Class I devices, tests for unmet medical needs, and for rare diseases would be exempt from having to meet premarket regulations and quality system requirements. However, they would still have to register and list their tests with the FDA and report adverse events.
Some in the lab community said at the meeting that this category of enforcement discretion should be broadened. Moreover, several speakers found too restrictive FDA's stipulation that tests must be performed for less than 4,000 patients annually in order to be deemed an infrequently performed test that qualifies for premarket review exemptions. They asked FDA to define rare disease tests according to disease prevalence instead.
To that, Rasika Kalamegham of the American Association for Cancer Research said that stakeholders were missing the spirit in which the FDA proposed these exemption categories. A rarely performed test can forgo premarket review, Kalamegham suggested, because the lab would have the expertise to do it and would discuss the results with the ordering physician. A rarely performed test is very different from a rare disease, however, she posited.
"We no longer talk about lung cancer or breast cancer; we talk about ALK-positive lung cancer or triple-negative breast cancer. Everything has become so compartmentalized and so specialized that you could argue that every cancer is becoming a rare disease," she said. "That doesn't mean the tests that are used to determine treatment options are not used quite liberally."

[skid]

Generally speaking, medical specialists in fields which involve none general operations (ORL, urology, opthalmology) need specialised equipment which costs a lot of $. But the eqpt need constant maintainance and replacement as medical science improves. It makes sense to come together for a common cause. However, these costs keep increasing ( witness the advent of robotic surgery).

You should put this post over on the NAN thread:) (really I put this post so miner wouldnt have to talk to himself:) :) )

[Minerbarejet]

You should put this post over on the NAN thread:) (really I put this post so miner wouldnt have to talk to himself:) :) ) Its OK mate, been talking to myself for years. Never had an argument though, will be worried if I do!

[skid]

I must admit ive had a few with myself in terms of whether to push the buy or sell button.:t_up::t_down::t_down::t_up:

[BFG]

Weekly charts say uptrend ticking along nicely. Support is around 70-71 cents. Everything seems to have flat-lined lately so might be boring for a while yet until someone decides to do something.

Disc - not holding but watching very carefully. Do have a vested interested in Stocktastic pick for '15 ;)

[skid]

I dont see how you can interpret the charts as an uptrend ticking along nicely
http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/nzx/peb/chart.htm
Its hugging the 50day ma and below the 200 day ma--bollenger bands are getting tight which could mean a breakout but aside from that buy time is usually when 50ma crosses above 200ma and maca is in positive territory
This would need to happen to start an uptrend-(if I understand correctly)

I agree no one is deciding anything atm---just waiting for something to happen---Its a hard on e to chart--Its more in FA territory atm waiting for an announcement and then if it comes -how much of an affect it will actually have on the SP---This last positive(?) report didnt really do much. Once the initial flurry was over it settled back to pretty much where it was before---Those who jumped in @ 94 obviously got it wrong (for the time being)--I believe the mistake could have been thinking we were still in the market hype of last year.
Now I think ,if positive announcements come,steady slow growth is a more realistic hope.

[BFG]

I dont see how you can interpret the charts as an uptrend ticking along nicely
http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/nzx/peb/chart.htm
Its hugging the 50day ma and below the 200 day ma--bollenger bands are getting tight which could mean a breakout but aside from that buy time is usually when 50ma crosses above 200ma and maca is in positive territory
This would need to happen to start an uptrend-(if I understand correctly)

I agree no one is deciding anything atm---just waiting for something to happen---Its a hard on e to chart--Its more in FA territory atm waiting for an announcement and then if it comes -how much of an affect it will actually have on the SP---This last positive(?) report didnt really do much. Once the initial flurry was over it settled back to pretty much where it was before---Those who jumped in @ 94 obviously got it wrong (for the time being)--I believe the mistake could have been thinking we were still in the market hype of last year.
Now I think ,if positive announcements come,steady slow growth is a more realistic hope.

WEEKLY, chart skid, not daily ;)

I agree, it is consolidation time (I don't agree with the last positive ann statement though!). As PEB has a penchant for releasing info which surprises, accumulation is the best idea as everything is just about back to neutral. Market is saying 80-85 is "fair value" at this juncture, building in quite a bit of risk to this stock (yes, it is still very risky!)

[BlackPeter]

I dont see how you can interpret the charts as an uptrend ticking along nicely
http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/nzx/peb/chart.htm
Its hugging the 50day ma and below the 200 day ma--bollenger bands are getting tight which could mean a breakout but aside from that buy time is usually when 50ma crosses above 200ma and maca is in positive territory
This would need to happen to start an uptrend-(if I understand correctly)

I agree no one is deciding anything atm---just waiting for something to happen---Its a hard on e to chart--Its more in FA territory atm waiting for an announcement and then if it comes -how much of an affect it will actually have on the SP---This last positive(?) report didnt really do much. Once the initial flurry was over it settled back to pretty much where it was before---Those who jumped in @ 94 obviously got it wrong (for the time being)--I believe the mistake could have been thinking we were still in the market hype of last year.
Now I think ,if positive announcements come,steady slow growth is a more realistic hope.

Don't forget - with charts you can proof anything ...

If you look at the chart below ... SP might just bounce at the MA120 (the stochastic indicator looks low enough for a buy signal). So - yes, in somebodys book you could call this at this stage still an uptrend ... and hey, it might be (here's hoping) :)

6653

[skid]

Charts are just a refection of how a share is doing--the more you are relying on hope--the bigger the gamble.

I would venture to say -there are not many experienced chartists that would see buy signals atm.

They would wait for a definite uptrend

Most are gambling on a positive announcement coming along, and the market jumping on board and not responding weakly until real sales traction appears.

Im not saying that wont happen--but atm this is NOT an uptrend.

I would imagine most would be looking for big things to come--but at the same time,I would think many would be somewhat disappointed with the response to the last report.

Like you say....heres hoping

[BFG]

Charts are just a refection of how a share is doing--the more you are relying on hope--the bigger the gamble.

I would venture to say -there are not many experienced chartists that would see buy signals atm.

They would wait for a definite uptrend

Most are gambling on a positive announcement coming along, and the market jumping on board and not responding weakly until real sales traction appears.

Im not saying that wont happen--but atm this is NOT an uptrend.

I would imagine most would be looking for big things to come--but at the same time,I would think many would be somewhat disappointed with the response to the last report.

Like you say....heres hoping

Skid, pull up a MONTHLY 3 year chart (not daily, MONTHLY) and draw a line from the lows up til now. What price on that UPTREND do you get? That's the key metric to watch in the future, whether it fails or bounces (if it does indeed go lower at all from here).

I'm thinking MAC timeframes here. I agree, there is no DAILY chart uptrend as everything has flatlined. And yes, most people are buying and waiting for CMS coverage.

If you really want me to I'll get a chart up for you (but I'd rather not as I am busy and doing so will take up some of my coffee break!)

[robbo24]

Skid, pull up a MONTHLY 3 year chart (not daily, MONTHLY) and draw a line from the lows up til now. What price on that UPTREND do you get? That's the key metric to watch in the future, whether it fails or bounces (if it does indeed go lower at all from here).

I'm thinking MAC timeframes here. I agree, there is no DAILY chart uptrend as everything has flatlined. And yes, most people are buying and waiting for CMS coverage.

If you really want me to I'll get a chart up for you (but I'd rather not as I am busy and doing so will take up some of my coffee break!)

BFG is right.

Although my suggestion is that the monthly bull/bear battle is between SMA 10 and 30 on the monthly - look at that candlestick sitting nicely between the two :)

Here is the chart (http://bigcharts.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=nz%3Apeb&time=12&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F13%2F2015&freq=3&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=10%2C30%2C50&uf=8&lf=1024&lf2=4&lf3=2&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11&x=52&y=11).

:D:D:D:D

[winner69]

keep the noise out of your chart robbo

chart in MAC and Hancocks timeframe better view

Above 133 at end of 2015 I say in uptrend

Anything less they both either richer or poorer than now but still an awful lot richer than they were years ago.

Haven't they done well

[robbo24]

keep the noise out of your chart robbo

chart in MAC and Hancocks timeframe better view

Above 133 at end of 2015 I say in uptrend

Anything less they both either richer or poorer than now but still an awful lot richer than they were years ago.

Haven't they done well

Well at least you can't say that 2014 was a bearish ungulfing on the 2013 candlestick...

:D:D:D

It's just rectangle/sideways trading, just wait for it to "do the DIL."

[skid]

Guess we could play with time frames till the cows come home---when the 50ma crosses above the 200ma and the SP is above the 50ma and MACD in positive territory is what I watch for uptrend(but like I said before-I think we are more in FA territory these days)
but dont kid yourself the SP can always go down--still a spec stock.

Theres certainly room for optimism--Its just a matter of whether you want to take a gamble now or wait till there are better signs on where this puppy is going, before jumping in.

Comparing to 3 years ago--well...whatever floats your boat.

[skid]

If the big drop in the US markets bring the SP down-and you reckon its just a temporary blip,it might be a good time to buy in ..while you wait

[MAC]

Nice plots Hancock’s, thanks for those, a good summary of progress over the last two years, plenty on the horizon for 2015 too as you say. I think they will hold sales staff about here until profitability is achieved next year, then it’s up and away again from there with further staff and growth funded from revenues.


We are still waiting for the next market release referring to the publication of results from the completed multicentre trials: 2 DHB’s trial in NZ, 2 trials from USA and 2 trials from Aussie.

Also, we are still waiting for any more commercial agreements regarding NPN’s etc. – still waiting for CMS coverage and associated financial windfall, still waiting on any commercial agreements for the Colorectal and Melanoma gene profiles – it may seem to holders like news is few and far between; but when you look at the timeline chart and analyse that beside the graphic of revenue growth versus the Account Executives employment start date (green squares unproductive training dates) – it looks to me like they are tracking pretty good so far really.

SO - there really is plenty happening and patience is required.

The label ‘Unidentified Staff’ indicates a role I cannot link to a name (yet).

6656.............................................. ....6657

[skid]

If the big drop in the US markets bring the SP down-and you reckon its just a temporary blip,it might be a good time to buy in ..while you wait

Slammed again(outside markets)--looks like waiting is the safest option if your looking to get in