PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[sharp]

Gut feeling tells me to buy - whilst news on PEB is quiet. Which I happily did.

[BFG]

Gut feeling tells me to buy - whilst news on PEB is quiet. Which I happily did.

Should have waited for the leg down and test of 73-74 monthly trendline. Charts just starting to turn from neutral to negative, albeit on low volume. No news is NOT good news for PEB!

[Dentie]

6673



Another nice piece of graphical work by Mr H. Thank you.

Being unashamedly bullish....looks to me as though they have been jockeying for positions and now they are all poised at the start line - waiting for that inevitable charge forward.................:t_up:

[Crystal Ball]

Another nice piece of graphical work by Mr H. Thank you.

Being unashamedly bullish....looks to me as though they have been jockeying for positions and now they are all poised at the start line - waiting for that inevitable charge forward.................:t_up:
I like your style Dentie!

[BFG]

Looking poorly on the daily chart now that 80 has been broke again. Near-term triangle is about to break down. Support should be found at 76, 75 (psychological) and 71-72 (long-term uptrend support), so quite a significant amount of support there. PSAR on monthly says SELL though. Volume is low so not too convinced it will all break down.

Daily 1 year chart: http://www.bigcharts.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=nz%3Apeb&x=0&y=0&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F18%2F2015&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=50%2C100%2C200&uf=16&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15

Monthly 3 year chart: http://www.bigcharts.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=nz%3Apeb&x=0&y=0&time=10&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F18%2F2015&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=20%2C50%2C100&uf=16&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15

Verdict: PEB needs some good announcements very soon to keep these trends going. If not, and it all breaks down, expect a return to the 60s and maybe even 50s...

[robbo24]

PSAR on monthly says SELL though.

Does it? Looks to me like intramonth shareprice hasn't even hit the PSAR marker, let alone closed on/below it...

Don't call it too early, Chicken Little...

Edit:


Monthly 3 year chart: http://www.bigcharts.com/advchart/fr...false&state=15 (http://www.bigcharts.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=nz%3Apeb&x=0&y=0&time=10&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=1%2F18%2F2015&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=4&maval=20%2C50%2C100&uf=16&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=1024&type=4&style=330&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15)

Nevermind, monthly does say sell but your link to the "Monthly 3 year chart" is actually a link to the Weekly 3 Year Chart :D:D:D:D

[BFG]

Does it? Looks to me like intramonth shareprice hasn't even hit the PSAR marker, let alone closed on/below it...

Don't call it too early, Chicken Little...

Edit:



Nevermind, monthly does say sell but your link to the "Monthly 3 year chart" is actually a link to the Weekly 3 Year Chart :D:D:D:D

Should confirm your research before speaking Boy Who Called Wolf :P

Disc - Weekly and Monthly vary little/not at all

[robbo24]

Should confirm your research before speaking Boy Who Called Wolf :P

Disc - Weekly and Monthly vary little/not at all

Says the guy who posts a link to the weekly and calls it the monthly... Weekly psar is still fine, Humpty Dumpty.

[golden city]

probably people disapointing about the no news factor

[Baa_Baa]

Here's a price chart that needs something good to happen, even a snippet of good news might save 15-35% of the SP. A test of .76 looks likely. Upside resistance around .85. Downside potential .64 with .50 under that. Money flow is not encouraging.

BAA6682

[skid]

I noticed the bollenger bands were starting to compress ,which usually means a breakout,but must admit -i didnt think it would be downward.(especially since the Nasdaq stopped its slide)
(BB bands dont say which way it will go)

Any other theories besides visa bills and no news factor?

There are other shares(I wont mention it:) ) that have increased by about the same amount as PEBs fall on no news (and I suppose Visa bills coming due)

[BFG]

I noticed the bollenger bands were starting to compress ,which usually means a breakout,but must admit -i didnt think it would be downward.(especially since the Nasdaq stopped its slide)
(BB bands dont say which way it will go)

Any other theories besides visa bills and no news factor?

There are other shares(I wont mention it:) ) that have increased by about the same amount as PEBs fall on no news (and I suppose Visa bills coming due)

I would say your explanation is simple trading by the charts, but others would insist this is a stock that is immune to trading based on "voodoo"...

[skid]

Tell me who they are and i will make some dolls and get some silver needles:) I think I saw some of them at the shop where i get my materials-looking for a crystal ball:)

[BFG]

Tell me who they are and i will make some dolls and get some silver needles:) I think I saw some of them at the shop where i get my materials-looking for a crystal ball:)

If you did see them at the shop I bet you any money the Moose antler section is totally sold out...

Owww, my bladder!!!

[golden city]

lost faith on peb.., has chosen to invested more in nzr instead

[Dentie]

lost faith on peb.., has chosen to invested more in nzr instead

...hopefully this was based on your own research Golden City ....... would hate to think you were influenced by us know it all's on here!

[golden city]

no ..i just compare the risk and reward side.., nzr is on the better side

[skid]

no ..i just compare the risk and reward side.., nzr is on the better side

They dont like it when you mention other shares here GT:) We all have to do what is right for us--NZR has certainly been doing well lately --Good luck

Looks like PEB is clawing back a bit today so that will be a relief to many

Ive often wondered why when other good prospects in terms of shares get mentioned,why they get criticized ,rather than added to the portfolio(after DYR) and keeping PEB as well (for those thats its close to the heart)---for every sell,there is a buy(and vice versa :)

[Snow Leopard]

lost faith on peb.., has chosen to invested more in nzr instead

Oh the joys of investing in stocks such as PEB !

Every day of no news is a day of uncertainity !!

Will there be an announcement today?
Or not?

Will it be good news?
Or not?

And if it is good news what does it really mean for the future of the company?

Do I hear a butterfly flapping it's wings or is that a black swan flying in?

All companies are affected by butterflies and black swans but some companies depend upon them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

Must surely be pretty close now for the CMS announcement, they’ve got until 31 March for the accumulated Medicare test invoices to be accrued within the FY results.

Probably been asked in CMS HQ already, can we please before financial years end ?.

[Snow Leopard]

Must surely be pretty close now for the CMS announcement, they’ve got until 31 March for the accumulated Medicare test invoices to be accrued within the FY results.

Probably been asked in CMS HQ already, can we please before financial years end ?.

Doubt it, and if asked the answer would be: "The US Govt FY ends Sept so no rush" :p

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

Well someone has liked something:)--still,there are alot of probably s-maybe s-I hope s-must bes,around these days.

But thats better than the OH S--T! of earlier in the week..

[klid]

Yes skid! I was eyeing it up as cheap today, but guess someone else was too.

not much traded though, maybe it'll come back down.

[Minerbarejet]

Must surely be pretty close now for the CMS announcement, they’ve got until 31 March for the accumulated Medicare test invoices to be accrued within the FY results.

Probably been asked in CMS HQ already, can we please before financial years end ?.If they dont make the cutoff it wont really matter as it will just accumulate more for next years outstanding performance which will follow on from this years outstanding performance. ( he said hopefully):)

[Leftfield]

Yes skid! I was eyeing it up as cheap today, but guess someone else was too.

not much traded though, maybe it'll come back down.

Same here!

[MAC]

If they dont make the cutoff it wont really matter as it will just accumulate more for next years outstanding performance which will follow on from this years outstanding performance. ( he said hopefully):)

Still though it would be nice to have it all accounted for and on the books going forward, Medicare and Medicaid are 30% of the market, it could add up to 30% to the FY result.

Not to mention the kudos that comes with it that the sales execs can apply with the insurers.

[skid]

and if nothing else,we all wont have to take wild guesses about the growth curve

[Minerbarejet]

and if nothing else,we all wont have to take wild guesses about the growth curveFalls in the same league as charts, a record of what has gone before trying to provide guidance as to what will happen in the future. Even when all is revealed you will still be guessing about the next one.

[Harvey Specter]

Probably been asked in CMS HQ already, can we please before financial years end ?.No doubt PEB have gone to KMD and bought a tent for so their sales person can camp outside their office.

[Minerbarejet]

No doubt PEB have gone to KMD and bought a tent for so their sales person can camp outside their office.
Sounds pretty good to me. A tent in the middle of winter in Baltimore.:t_up:

[skid]

Falls in the same league as charts, a record of what has gone before trying to provide guidance as to what will happen in the future. Even when all is revealed you will still be guessing about the next one.

of course you will...but hopefully it will be an educated guess--especially if you believe there is a psychological element to investor behavior.

[skid]

No doubt PEB have gone to KMD and bought a tent for so their sales person can camp outside their office.

Nope--that would be considered an office in another state which changes the whole game.;)

[klid]

Yes skid! I was eyeing it up as cheap today, but guess someone else was too.

not much traded though, maybe it'll come back down.
Back down there. Cheap?

[skid]

Nows your chance Klid--One has to wonder though ,with all these potential announcements around the corner--whats taking the wind out of this puppys sails?

[klid]

I think it makes sense, just looking at a 5 year graph on Google here: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NZE:PEB

It seems that a jump to $2.25-$5.10 is imminent? It's just waiting for the news...

Just going off a 3x of what it is now/has been. :) Which has happened twice before as you can see on 5y graph.

Flawed logic maybe but I like it.

[couta1]

Nows your chance Klid--One has to wonder though ,with all these potential announcements around the corner--whats taking the wind out of this puppys sails?
The same thing that's keeping XRO at around $16, lack of current news plus impatience.

[Baa_Baa]

Hi klid, that graph can be refined a bit, which may offer further insight.

Zoom in to 3 years, take out the noise by going to a monthly view, put in the 50/200 MA's that many people like, add some trendlines .. the red is the closing price, and the green is the lows price. Then add the horizontal support price lines.

This is what it looks like to me, just from a simplified technical viewpoint, PEB has already broken down from the closing price trendline and may be respecting the lows trend line, with current closing price hard on horizontal support (which has also technically broken down with the monthly low below 0.77 at 0.74).

The price is also below the big MA's, but also below a fairly tight 21day EMA. This is where people like to argue whether that picture is a up uptrend, or a downtrend, but it's just a matter of how far back in time you choose to take into account. Technically, 3-4 months of declining price is a downtrend on a monthly chart, though it's been predominantly down for almost a year. The chorus of 'you be mad to buy a downtrend' is so far correct, but we probably could admit it's the bottom of the current downtrend that we're looking for.

All the standard indicators say it's oversold, but that tends to imply it should be bought, whereas Money Flow is more illuminating, suggesting a slight possibility that the steep decline (money & volume - out) may be broken to the upside. The summary technically I think is that this is dangerous as the price could easily collapse to support at 0.62, or even worse 0.48.

So the thing that I would agree with in your optimistic analysis is that PEB needs good news, any goods news actually, even a wee glimmer of hope would help. I can't comment on what that news would be that would take the price up to 20% or so over the all time high, let alone the $5's. But I'm watching closely as well.

BAA

[Minerbarejet]

Pacific Edge has historically had long periods of no news with a gradually diminishing share price after each major announcement spike. A single announcement seems to only have a temporary effect these days. We have two or three major announcements that are expected. One is the Medicare/Medicaid agreement expected early 2015 as is the launching of triage in the US along with a Kaiser Permanente clinical trial of triage. There is also the not insignificant Full Year report available at the end of May. Each day that goes past without any news at all to me means that the likelihood of getting multiple major announcements together like Oct/Nov 2013 is increasing. There are also many other things that could arrive, JV in Japan, Spain finally getting going, colorectal launch, results of multiple clinical trials.
Personally I would rather be in the gate waiting quietly for developments than outside attempting to find the very bottom and missing out in the inevitable stampede, but maybe thats just me.
GLTA, DYOR, TINIA:)

[BlackPeter]

GLTA, DYOR, TINIA:)

CBAA - Confused By Acronym Abuse ... :confused:

GLTA: Am I right to assume that in this context it does not stand for the "Gays and Lesbians Tennis Association"?
DYOR: Well, we understand that ...
TINIA: Why are you referring to the highest Etruscan god?

[Minerbarejet]

Good luck to all,
This is not investment advice
Sorry, saves writing

[MAC]

Pacific Edge has historically had long periods of no news with a gradually diminishing share price after each major announcement spike. A single announcement seems to only have a temporary effect these days. We have two or three major announcements that are expected. One is the Medicare/Medicaid agreement expected early 2015 as is the launching of triage in the US along with a Kaiser Permanente clinical trial of triage. There is also the not insignificant Full Year report available at the end of May. Each day that goes past without any news at all to me means that the likelihood of getting multiple major announcements together like Oct/Nov 2013 is increasing. There are also many other things that could arrive, JV in Japan, Spain finally getting going, colorectal launch, results of multiple clinical trials.
Personally I would rather be in the gate waiting quietly for developments than outside attempting to find the very bottom and missing out in the inevitable stampede, but maybe thats just me.
GLTA, DYOR, TINIA:)

Not to mention all those new staff, now they are on board and up to speed, rapidly wizzing about doing what they do in the background, unbeknown to shareholders, working hard within their respective sales regions, assisting LUG and HMO management in realising the benefits of their newly considered molecular diagnostic tests.

Twelve staff now ratcheting up the number of those mini user programmes, they won’t each be announced, but each stacks up as a new forward potential revenue stream at fruition.

[BFG]

Pacific Edge has historically had long periods of no news with a gradually diminishing share price after each major announcement spike. A single announcement seems to only have a temporary effect these days. We have two or three major announcements that are expected. One is the Medicare/Medicaid agreement expected early 2015 as is the launching of triage in the US along with a Kaiser Permanente clinical trial of triage. There is also the not insignificant Full Year report available at the end of May. Each day that goes past without any news at all to me means that the likelihood of getting multiple major announcements together like Oct/Nov 2013 is increasing. There are also many other things that could arrive, JV in Japan, Spain finally getting going, colorectal launch, results of multiple clinical trials.
Personally I would rather be in the gate waiting quietly for developments than outside attempting to find the very bottom and missing out in the inevitable stampede, but maybe thats just me.
GLTA, DYOR, TINIA:)
Thanks for that post Miner. I agree that holding is a better option than waiting for the day of a news release, but anyone one not holding right now should wait for a near term bottom and better price here. Few more days can't hurt ;)

Disc - not holding but watching with interest as the risk vs reward profile gets better as price decreases near term. Will use above strategy to maybe time entry...

[Crystal Ball]

Thanks for that post Miner. I agree that holding is a better option than waiting for the day of a news release, but anyone one not holding right now should wait for a near term bottom and better price here. Few more days can't hurt ;)

Disc - not holding but watching with interest as the risk vs reward profile gets better as price decreases near term. Will use above strategy to maybe time entry...
Better make sure you get a timing right BFG.......��

[Minerbarejet]

Few more days can't hurt ;)
Boy you sure like tempting fate, hope these arent going down to the hall of fame as famous last words.:)

[BFG]

Boy you sure like tempting fate, hope these arent going down to the hall of fame as famous last words.:)
I'm hoping so too. Before PEB took off to the moon way back when it looked like it was breaking down to the low 40s. Then hey presto, big announcements and it all shot up to $1.70! That's why I'm striking a middle grpund between buying just to wait and watching for the absolute best price. You just never know sometimes!

[skid]

The prudent investor would at least wait to make sure the US market recovers(biggest 1 day loss since October) This is a Global economy folks.
Meanwhile Im just puzzled why instos are not piling in if this is such a win-win situation waiting to happen.

Its sitting 11cents below where I sold, before the (what everyone considered),was a wonderful sales announcement.--Is the market getting it wrong?

On the other side of the coin--If .65 was the bottom before-is it reasonable to assume .75 is the bottom now?--seems logical unless announcements are actually disappointing(no one has considered that)--at the end of the day ,its got to translate into sales--lots of sales.

[skid]

Boy you sure like tempting fate, hope these arent going down to the hall of fame as famous last words.:)

I think you may also be in the running with your comment on the ''aspirations'' thread:)

[skid]

One things for sure--Its probably the most difficult co. around to not become emotionally involved in --one way or the other.

[NT001]

One things for sure--Its probably the most difficult co. around to not become emotionally involved in --one way or the other.

Yes, you can tell that by the extraordinary number of viewings and postings on this site. Several reasons, I think. It appeals to a lot of people who like to see NZ research-based biotechnology (as contrasted to the more hyped software/IT technology) succeeding globally, and it's certainly got at least the seeds of success. It also appeals to some who like to see companies producing really useful longterm solutions, not just something that will be fashionable for a few years and then be overtaken. And being a speculative investment, which has alreeady shown disconcertingly sharp SP movements, it's far more exciting than Spark or Fletchers. Great fun for risk-takers, not a share to put the house or the kids' inheritance on.

[skid]

yep-especially those sharp SP movements you refereed to--When it took off like a rocket,i think alot were hooked from that point onwards.
Like the first hit of Meth--many yearn for that rush again-understandably---Its got everything--potential-benefit to mankind-science--and the fact that the payday could be ''just around the corner''--but to others a little bit dangerous as well---will we hear that elusive, Kaching!!?

[MAC]

An interesting development today from the Obama administration that has led to a jump in genomic stocks overnight.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/obama-to-unveil-research-initiative-aiming-to-develop-tailored-medical-treatments.html?_r=0

I just wonder how well placed an innovative company like Pacific Edge would be to take advantage of such an initiative. Certainly DNA/RNA based diagnostics is their core business, but perhaps they have their hands full in commercialising Cxbladder and Cxcolorectal for the time being.

Still though, it seems to demonstrate a shift in acceptance and a validation of DNA/RNA based clinical solutions, a temperament that may act as a tail wind for the acceptance of all genomic products including those developed and presently offered by Pacific Edge.

[BFG]

I find it interesting that no one doing research on here has ever mentioned this competitor to PEB, as well as the products it has, nor that they are competing in the same markets. Here's their latest update

https://www.bostwicklaboratories.com/Company/News/Bostwick-Laboratories-to-use-Sienna-reagent-in-wor.aspx

Suggest some DYOR here!

[penn]

BFG This report coincides with the steep drop in s.p mid January, Some, even many would have seen it, but who wants to point out that someone alses baby is prettier than yours.

[Minerbarejet]

Diagnostic only by the looks with a lot of may, could, has potential and other forward looking stuff.
To complement existing cytology for Sienna
To replace cytology for Pacific Edge
Anyway PEB are only looking for 10 percent of the haematuria presenters meantime and there is plenty of room for competition.

Wonder how Multiplan is going now it has passed the 7 month wind up. Should be a few coming through from there as they were the biggest signed up to date.
Probably going from strength to strength.:)

[BFG]

BFG This report coincides with the steep drop in s.p mid January, Some, even many would have seen it, but who wants to point out that someone alses baby is prettier than yours.

I did note the deafening silence of an FDA approved competitors device coming online, as well as all the other services they provide.

I wonder how much all this costs?

[MAC]

I find it interesting that no one doing research on here has ever mentioned this competitor to PEB, as well as the products it has, nor that they are competing in the same markets. Here's their latest update

https://www.bostwicklaboratories.com/Company/News/Bostwick-Laboratories-to-use-Sienna-reagent-in-wor.aspx

Suggest some DYOR here!

Competition comes along in disruptive technology steps.

Alere NMP22 held the top spot in terms of clinical effectiveness for ten years, until it was outperformed as demonstrated by Pacific Edge Cxbladder trials.

Any "competition" coming along now will have to do the same and, and although it is not impossible, it will be quite difficult to do for the following reasons.

Pacific Edge intend to saturate and entrench the market with four tailored products, Cxbladder(detect), Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict) and Cxbladder(health).

Any serious completion that could provide superior results to any one of those four products only gets one quarter of the market. Pacific Edge management have done very well in adopting this marketing strategy IMO.

Given the cost of working through trials, regulatory approvals and commercialisation, competitors would surely have to consider very carefully if it is a market worth pursuing on that basis or if their cash is better spent elsewhere.

In addition, the Cxbladder range is getting quite close to a 100% detection rate for many stages of cancer per diagram below. The first product to come along and do so.

Any competitor coming along would also need to consider carefully if it is worth their investment to go just a fraction of a percent better when Pacific Edge are already a year or two ahead in the regulatory and commercialisation process. There's really not much head room left.

The barriers to entry are getting higher for others every day that goes by.

6725

[Dentie]

I find it interesting that no one doing research on here has ever mentioned this competitor to PEB, as well as the products it has, nor that they are competing in the same markets. Here's their latest update

https://www.bostwicklaboratories.com/Company/News/Bostwick-Laboratories-to-use-Sienna-reagent-in-wor.aspx

Suggest some DYOR here!

Did my grocery shopping yesterday....(had run out of loo paper!). Spent an hour and a half going up and down two aisles quietly doing my own research on all the different choices....which I lost count of. Anyway...

Checked for paper thickness, length and width of paper squares, what it was made from, how many squares on the roll, whether the wrapping could be recycled, the emptiness of the shelf (popularity), individual company searches on the makers, the price of each roll, the overall price of purchase, any discounts and of course - any guarantees of refunds...in case of failure of the product.

Couldn't decide in the end - so chose to go stay with my hanky!! Much more economic to use.

[RGR367]

Did my grocery shopping yesterday....(had run out of loo paper!). Spent an hour and a half going up and down two aisles quietly doing my own research on all the different choices....which I lost count of. Anyway...

Checked for paper thickness, length and width of paper squares, what it was made from, how many squares on the roll, whether the wrapping could be recycled, the emptiness of the shelf (popularity), individual company searches on the makers, the price of each roll, the overall price of purchase, any discounts and of course - any guarantees of refunds...in case of failure of the product.

Couldn't decide in the end - so chose to go stay with my hanky!! Much more economic to use.

LOL. A very good empirical study I would say with a profound conclusion at the end. TY Dentie :t_up:

[penn]

Wow Dentie you do your research. I have invested in loo paper and it always ends up 'down the gurgler'

[Minerbarejet]

Did my grocery shopping yesterday....(had run out of loo paper!). Spent an hour and a half going up and down two aisles quietly doing my own research on all the different choices....which I lost count of. Anyway...

Checked for paper thickness, length and width of paper squares, what it was made from, how many squares on the roll, whether the wrapping could be recycled, the emptiness of the shelf (popularity), individual company searches on the makers, the price of each roll, the overall price of purchase, any discounts and of course - any guarantees of refunds...in case of failure of the product.

Couldn't decide in the end - so chose to go stay with my hanky!! Much more economic to use.Dentie, I sincerely hope you are not contemplating putting that hanky back in your pocket after use.:scared:
Shows you are thinking outside the square though.

[Dentie]

Wow Dentie you do your research. I have invested in loo paper and it always ends up 'down the gurgler'

We may have to have a discussion on what represents an "investment" Penn.

For an investment - there needs to be a yield ... and, on this topic at least any yield needs to be from outside the "square". Any yield from inside the "square" definitely cannot be termed an investment ... not unlike investing in Lotto each week.

As for Capital Preservation ...well!!

Suffice to say, please don't think purchasing loo paper as making an investment. Stick to PEB!:p

[penn]

love Sundays!

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/09/14/why-toilet-paper-is-better-than-cash/

[Dentie]

Whilst on "that" subject ... and deadly serious this time...

Was in our local shopping centre the other day and needed to use the little boys room. Standing at the urinal reading the advertising message (as one does!) and hello - here is a nice big community news type of message about the risks of bladder cancer, not to muck around, see your doctor and what to do etc etc. At the bottom of the message was a suggestion to use a Cx Bladder test!

Nice to see....

[Schrodinger]

Don't worry about the SP fall guys, Chelsea (lol) has said this is a sure thing. Not sure what to think if you take advice from someone who has no idea about what she is researching.

[skid]

NOAH FENCE
Taken or intended
You stick with NAN
Ill stick with PEB
I have not even started researching PEB
Let you know when I have.
Now where were we -ah yes PEB sharetrader post number 33:)


:):):):):):)

[Minerbarejet]

Don't worry about the SP fall guys, Chelsea (lol) has said this is a sure thing. Not sure what to think if you take advice from someone who has no idea about what she is researching.
When, precisely, did Chelsea (lol), and I assume you mean the Forsyth Barr analyst, Chelsea Leadbetter (lol), say it was a sure thing. I (lol) don't recall seeing that anywhere.
And perhaps I (lol) could suggest that you (lol) have no idea about what she (lol) is researching and how she (lol) is doing said research.

[Tsuba]

I always ( lol ) when I read your posts Miner. Keep it up. ;)

[Schrodinger]

When, precisely, did Chelsea (lol), and I assume you mean the Forsyth Barr analyst, Chelsea Leadbetter (lol), say it was a sure thing. I (lol) don't recall seeing that anywhere.
And perhaps I (lol) could suggest that you (lol) have no idea about what she (lol) is researching and how she (lol) is doing said research.

Couple of points:
Their implied valuation based on the calcs/research is meaningless.

Investors basing their decisions on said valuation/research that isn't actually research aren't investing but outsourcing valuable decisions to third parties who can't value export businesses

I will clarify what I mean by research: not a word by word copy paste from the company and how everyone is falling over themselves to part with their money, but objective and well thought out analysis of market realities they are facing in trying to export this to make a return for said investors.

This made me go back to the poster who quoted her "analysis" and how much she's knows about the company. That isn't research. A company valuation and therefore broker/bankers valuations are and should be how they scale this in an "export" market to get the implied market cap valuation. Now tell me how the said research is going to answer that question or even investigate the opportunity.

That is a report I would pay for.

[Balance]

Don't worry about the SP fall guys, Chelsea (lol) has said this is a sure thing. Not sure what to think if you take advice from someone who has no idea about what she is researching.

Clock is ticking.

[Minerbarejet]

Couple of points:
Their implied valuation based on the calcs/research is meaningless.

Investors basing their decisions on said valuation/research that isn't actually research aren't investing but outsourcing valuable decisions to third parties who can't value export businesses

I will clarify what I mean by research: not a word by word copy paste from the company and how everyone is falling over themselves to part with their money, but objective and well thought out analysis of market realities they are facing in trying to export this to make a return for said investors.

This made me go back to the poster who quoted her "analysis" and how much she's knows about the company. That isn't research. A company valuation and therefore broker/bankers valuations are and should be how they scale this in an "export" market to get the implied market cap valuation. Now tell me how the said research is going to answer that question or even investigate the opportunity.

That is a report I would pay for.
As Chelsea (lol) works for Forsyth Barr whom I believe are brokers would it be safe to assume that she would perhaps run her evaluation past senior management for a general ok as to content. If this is so, and I really cant see it being otherwise, then the evaluation concerned becomes a brokers evaluation as they would back her efforts.
Edison research could be construed as a company valuation as it is paid for by PEB.
Why do you call it an export business?There are no container loads of pisspots on the wharf subject to strikes and awaiting the next container ship to the US as far as I am aware.
The company carries out its local test business here and US test business there under a separate company. What are we exporting? Knowhow, ideas, intellectual property?

[skid]

Is knowing Edisons valuation is paid for by PEB supposed to make us feel optimistic??

[Minerbarejet]

Is knowing Edisons valuation is paid for by PEB supposed to make us feel optimistic??
Try it, you might like it.:)

[MAC]

Is knowing Edisons valuation is paid for by PEB supposed to make us feel optimistic??

Edison cover thousands of companies in over a hundred countries, and have a business model dependent of status in their market, a wee company from the end of world wouldn’t be worth their global reputation.

But then, those sitting in their caravans on a Tuesday evening in nothing but their undies dreaming of an area 51 life whilst banging away on their ham radios and talk back shows might well possibly buy into the conspiracy theory.

[skid]

Try it, you might like it.:)

Ill leave that to you --got my eggs in a different basket thats giving me alot more reason to be optimistic ATM

[skid]

Edison cover thousands of companies in over a hundred countries, and have a business model dependent of status in their market, a wee company from the end of world wouldn’t be worth their global reputation.

But then, those sitting in their caravans on a Tuesday evening in nothing but their undies dreaming of an area 51 life whilst banging away on their ham radios and talk back shows might well possibly buy into the conspiracy theory.

if you say so....Didnt realize that they only do valuations of companies that pay them to do so...

You have a pretty active imagination as far as conspiracy theorists go,there Mac:)

[Harvey Specter]

if you say so....Didnt realize that they only do valuations of companies that pay them to do so..generally yes so they trade off their reputation.

I note the NZX will be paying them to analysis all the companies on the NXT once it's up and running.

[BFG]

generally yes so they trade off their reputation.

I note the NZX will be paying them to analysis all the companies on the NXT once it's up and running.

And there will not be one "sell" or valuation lower than the current share price. Seen it every time with every stock they cover, even dogs like Snakk & SeaDragon.

You watch and see. Money can make you be the eternal optimist of the sharemarket I gather!

[skid]

generally yes so they trade off their reputation.

I note the NZX will be paying them to analysis all the companies on the NXT once it's up and running.

Getting paid by the NZX somehow goes down a bit better than getting paid by the company you are valuing--thats a bit to close for comfort

.....gotta go look for a caravan--hows that X-files theme song go again?.....:)

[Minerbarejet]

.....gotta go look for a caravan--hows that X-files theme song go again?.....:)
Wouldnt a bit of Santana be more appropriate?:)

[davflaws]

Frank Zappa

[Balance]

generally yes so they trade off their reputation.

I note the NZX will be paying them to analysis all the companies on the NXT once it's up and running.

Research from Edison is better than no research but investors need to take the 'research' with a huge grain of salt.

Edison does not really do independent research but regurgitates a company's view of how the market should view it as an investment proposition - akin to a summary of a company's annual report.

A classic case of research which is 'no care and no responsibility'.

[skid]

To be fair--They have well and truley covered themselves with their SP spread and statements like
''changing established clinical processes was ''challenging''. ....and

"it is early days and the commercial model is unproven. " also

''There is a risk that Pacific Edge is unsuccessful in commercialization and, therefore, has little value,'' she said.

So in a nutshell they are supporting the science ,but the jury is still out on the commercial model and the ability to crack the conservative
medical community

On the other issue--Ive always been skeptical of lobbyists,campaign contributers,and anything else that ,can influence the objectivity of the issue by financial gain,but having said that,conflict of interest is one of the pillars of American economic and political policies, so its certainly common place.(If thats being a Conspiracy theorist ,then so be it-you can put any theme song on it you want)

PS-I would have thought that FB would have been able to get along with their membership income alone rather than getting it from both ends.

[Balance]

a bit harsh balance....... more like 'all care no responsibility'.... same result though.

Care = due diligence and independent verification of what a company states and asserts.

Does Edison do that?

Hence, no care and no responsibility.

[benjitara]

I currently have a close family member who is fighting cancer. The attitudes towards the disease and treatment has been perplexing at times. Seems to me the greatest advantage the PEB has is that its product concerns the DIAGNOSIS of cancer that leads to conventional treatment paths. If their products were concerned with the treatment then I'd fear they would never see the light of day given the thinking that currently resides in some parts of our health system.... Hope they can gain traction in their markets anyway as the early detection of the sickness is a important step in the right direction.

[Schrodinger]

I currently have a close family member who is fighting cancer. The attitudes towards the disease and treatment has been perplexing at times. Seems to me the greatest advantage the PEB has is that its product concerns the DIAGNOSIS of cancer that leads to conventional treatment paths. If their products were concerned with the treatment then I'd fear they would never see the light of day given the thinking that currently resides in some parts of our health system.... Hope they can gain traction in their markets anyway as the early detection of the sickness is a important step in the right direction.

There is no doubt about the value of the product it is obviously good. What is interesting to me as an investor is can they scale this in the USA/EU etc. If you remove the emotion and look at the cold numbers this is how to approach it.

Of course if this is a greater good play where commercial outcomes aren't high on your list then just be aware they may fold and you lose your money. Time will tell.

[MAC]

All investors should firstly do their own research, modelling and valuations. Analyst reports are useful but shouldn’t ever be the sole resource for investment decisions.

One of the big advantages of Edison type reports and prospectus docs too for that matter is that they very often contain information not readily available from other sources as they have direct access to company officials for Q&A, and although they prepare the reports independently, they run a final copy past the company for content correctness.

At the end of the day, no information source is perfect, but I’d hold a bit more trust in a company whose entire business reputation is based on being unbiased than general media published journalism.

And yes, the company pays their bill, they are not a charity, get over it.

I think that those whom don’t like them the most may be the ones whom the report outcome doesn’t suit.

[skid]

You have some valid points but I dont agree you are a charity if you cant survive on the membership income from those that hold you in high esteem (if your that good ,there should be plenty that subscribe)--Guess we will have to agree to disagree on that one.

Its of course just a sidebar though, as the big question is how well they implement the ''commercial success'' referred to in the report.

[Minerbarejet]

You can do all the research you like now the internet is here. Trolling endlessly through analysts, forums, news items, vast amounts of intricate medical information, laws, authorizations, recommendations, market announcements, what the charts did before and after breakfast, ----eventually something has to emerge from the slurry which inspires you as an individual to purchase or sell the particular share you are interested in. Some people cotton on to something early, some late and some are so engrossed in research waiting for the right bit of research, information, analysis to come along that they forget to buy any in the first place. But by gee their research was bloody marvellous.
If we all waited until all the boxes were ticked from all sources available, well, ----there goes the sharemarket.
I'm off to the waiting room.:)

[Dentie]

If we all waited until all the boxes were ticked from all sources available, well, ----there goes the sharemarket.

Absolutely agree here Miner. I think some wannabe investors never quite get there because they are just too conservative in their thinking. Even after analysing the balls off the subject company business they still look for any small reason that justifies not pulling the trigger. Then, just as they start to feel safe the company finally takes off and the opportunity has passed them by. They console themselves by knowing their money is still safely in the bank.

Then there are the others who never actually buy...they just love analysing and researching....

[Balance]

Absolutely agree here Miner. I think some wannabe investors never quite get there because they are just too conservative in their thinking. Even after analysing the balls off the subject company business they still look for any small reason that justifies not pulling the trigger. Then, just as they start to feel safe the company finally takes off and the opportunity has passed them by. They console themselves by knowing their money is still safely in the bank.

Then there are the others who never actually buy...they just love analysing and researching....

Then there are those who have bought, think they have it sussed but do not see the fully loaded freight train barreling towards them at 200mph.

Tick ... tick ... tick

[skid]

Absolutely agree here Miner. I think some wannabe investors never quite get there because they are just too conservative in their thinking. Even after analysing the balls off the subject company business they still look for any small reason that justifies not pulling the trigger. Then, just as they start to feel safe the company finally takes off and the opportunity has passed them by. They console themselves by knowing their money is still safely in the bank.

Then there are the others who never actually buy...they just love analysing and researching....

So did either one of you take the time to research NAN when I mentioned it (before it went from $1.15 to $1.49??

[skid]

Cant imagine anyone buying PEB, or NAN for that matter, would think they had it "sussed" especially if they had done a bit of research.:)


You can do all the research you like now the internet is here. Trolling endlessly through analysts, forums, news items, vast amounts of intricate medical information, laws, authorizations, recommendations, market announcements, what the charts did before and after breakfast, ----eventually something has to emerge from the slurry which inspires you as an individual to purchase or sell the particular share you are interested in. Some people cotton on to something early, some late and some are so engrossed in research waiting for the right bit of research, information, analysis to come along that they forget to buy any in the first place. But by gee their research was bloody marvellous.
If we all waited until all the boxes were ticked from all sources available, well, ----there goes the sharemarket.
I'm off to the waiting room.:)

I think you may have answered your own question--Its just a matter of who you run with..

[BFG]

Then there are those who have bought, think they have it sussed but do not see the fully loaded freight train barreling towards them at 200mph.

Tick ... tick ... tick

2015 - The year of the Snapster Balanced on a Moose heading towards PEB holders at light speed :D :D :D

[Dentie]

Then there are those who have bought, think they have it sussed but do not see the fully loaded freight train barreling towards them at 200mph.

Tick ... tick ... tick

Here we go again....stop writing in riddles Balance.
Define who/what, in your view, is the "fully loaded freight train".... Travelling at 200 mph.

[Balance]

You are looking at it from the wrong angle.
Its vertical and not horizontal.
The light is on a PEB rocketship in an underground silo awaiting completion of the launch countdown.

Haha - checked the rocket fuel recently? Been leaking and going to need top up soon.

[Absolute144]

Well, I thought its time I finally joined the fun. Two days ago, I was researching internet forums for bladder cancer to see what I could find. Anyway, found details of an Israeli company wanting to take a slice of the pie.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/IN21558.htm

The CellDetect® urine test successfully identified cancerous cells in urine samples in patients with a history of the disease, with reported sensitivity of 84.4% and specificity of 82.7% for the study's primary endpoint.

So, I certainly hope the PEB horse has enough lead to win the race.

[TJP]

Well, I thought its time I finally joined the fun. Two days ago, I was researching internet forums for bladder cancer to see what I could find. Anyway, found details of an Israeli company wanting to take a slice of the pie.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/IN21558.htm

The CellDetect® urine test successfully identified cancerous cells in urine samples in patients with a history of the disease, with reported sensitivity of 84.4% and specificity of 82.7% for the study's primary endpoint.

So, I certainly hope the PEB horse has enough lead to win the race.

Woah. PEB better put things into 4th gear. If it's one thing about Israel, it is that they are technically advanced and hungry. Let's hope PEB has an edge to market.

[MAC]

It seems to be more of a test for recurrance primarily, rather than an early stage diagnostic test or a perhaps prognostic test. It would be interesting actually to see what the sensitivity and specificity specs are for Tis, Ta, T1, T2 and T3 stages, which seem to be much harder to achieve with the sort of results Cxbladder(detect) achieves.

Might be a competitor for Cxbladder(health) though when launched though sometime down stream, suspect that they may have to do more than just a 217 patient trial though.

[Balance]

Research from Edison is better than no research but investors need to take the 'research' with a huge grain of salt.

Edison does not really do independent research but regurgitates a company's view of how the market should view it as an investment proposition - akin to a summary of a company's annual report.

A classic case of research which is 'no care and no responsibility'.

Nothing tells us more about how hopelessly compromised paid research is - S&P effectively paying a US$1.375 billion fine to settle the case against it for the bastardization of its research and ratings.

So take Edison's research paid for the company with the above in mind.

[winner69]

Nothing tells us more about how hopelessly compromised paid research is - S&P effectively paying a US$1.375 billion fine to settle the case against it for the bastardization of its research and ratings.

So take Edison's research paid for the company with the above in mind.

But Edison reports move the market Balance

Most be another one for PEB coming up ....about time they did one or ATM as well

[jonu]

But Edison reports move the market Balance

Most be another one for PEB coming up ....about time they did one or ATM as well

Just like prunes move my bowels!

[skid]

With the share price in the 70s and awaiting news it would seem vast quantities of salt have already been applied to Edison and Forsyth Barrs ratings over the 1.00 mark.
Will be interesting to see what they come up with if and when:
1 CMS is signed. (Early 2015 is running out fast but there are miles of red tape to get through.)
2 There is a substantially increased Full Year over Half Year. ( I have my suspicions and especially if 1 happens soon)
3 Triage is launched in the States. (This is a sleeper. It can ride into all the clinics and providers signed up on the back of Detect. Triage is what the urologists were asking for.

Any one, two or all three should provoke some action.
I suppose one could work on the theory that the share price will settle at 50c below an Edison Research rating prior to any further Edison reports.
In a salt laden atmosphere. :)

I think the market atmosphere has moved to a point where mere speculation is not enough any more--something concrete needs to happen (like the song ''we got to move them color TVs'')---doesnt mean its not going to happen,but until it does,I dont think a new product will have the same ''ump'' as news that the old one is selling. When that happens(old one selling) then it should breath new life in the mix (could still be cautious at first)

I wouldnt be paying for another report unless i had something to back it up at this stage---if they do, imo it would be a bad sign (asking for more faith)

At some stage ,something has got to create an exponential increase in sales--the growth curve depends on it.

[Balance]

I think the market atmosphere has moved to a point where mere speculation is not enough any more--something concrete needs to happen (like the song ''we got to move them color TVs'')---doesnt mean its not going to happen,but until it does,I dont think a new product will have the same ''ump'' as news that the old one is selling. When that happens(old one selling) then it should breath new life in the mix (could still be cautious at first)

I wouldnt be paying for another report unless i had something to back it up at this stage---if they do, imo it would be a bad sign (asking for more faith)

At some stage ,something has got to create an exponential increase in sales--the growth curve depends on it.

Remember :

2012 - "Labtests exclusive sales for CxBladder".

2013 - "Mid Central DHB first to use CxBladder"

2013 - "CxBladder excels in NZ".

2013 - "Agreement with Choice makes CXBladder available to 14 million Americans".

2013 - "Agreement with Fedmed makes CxBladder available to an additional 40 million Americans" etc etc etc.

2013 - "Agreement with Stratose gives access to 8.6 million Americans".

2013 - "Tens of thousands of tests in 2014".

Heaps of outlandish statements but very little to show for all the above statements.

One of you strong proponents of great things to come for PEB may like to have a closer look at the last set of financial statements and presentations by PEB with particular focus on the cash flow and revenue situation.

And yes, do take my comments in the context that I have sold out - so I am biased and happy to be out!

[skid]

It goes to show the importance of being already established in the marketplace with a good distribution network--It was worth an additional 30c a share for me to buy in to a company that had achieved this.
(ie further along the growth curve)

[winner69]

I think the market atmosphere has moved to a point where mere speculation is not enough any more--something concrete needs to happen (like the song ''we got to move them color TVs'')---.

'Money for Nothing' a cool ringtone

[skid]

All together now ''we got to move those bladder cancer tests''

[skid]

absolutely right --well have to keep an eye on that--but the big difference is that they are already established now ,so there is a greater chance of going it alone--they have already been through that ''market recognition phase''--They have their place in the market.
as long as they stay on course ,Im good (if your staying in touch,you would have seen KWs comparison graph)--meanwhile ,the market seemed to like it.

Keep in mind-its not a competition-you could have been invested in both.

If Nan stumbles,I have an exit strategy--If PEB takes its place as the one to back--Ill be there----but at this stage i like to keep the gambleing on rumour investments to a minimum.---(if it went sub 70 i would be very tempted though)--IMO it would be undervalued then so it most likely wont go there--it would still be a punt though. (although with lots of potential)

Once they are over the hump,things will be safer IMO---That was the case with Nan when it was brought to my attention--It seemed the easier road--so far -so good

Disc-they are not going to like that you brought this up,so I wont carry on any farther--best of luck

[skid]

I dunno--who ever was complaining about commenting about other shares on the PEB thread(which can be on the emotional side)---it was tounge and cheek

Your getting me in trouble--(I had to convince the 2 big Italian guys at the door with their hands in their coats,that I was not talking about them):eek2:

[skid]

It would be good to be a fly on the wall and know exactly what went down(instead of guessing)--In terms of paying them enough,I would imagine it would be a cut of sales profit--

This was posted some time back..

Go-it-alone strategy looking more attractive:- while we are encouraged
by GE commitments in the updated agreement, we believe there is a need
for this intent to translate into commercial reality. If NAN were marketing
the trophon, we believe it would be able to directly target all ultrasound
customers (not just the GE’s) and increase the gross margin by 150%-
200%. While this may result in a short term decline in top-line sales and
additional sales cost, we believe this would be offset by the impact on
profitability and future growth potential

This has been discussed on the NAN thread

[skid]

There was a lot of noise about how PEB should get a partner in order to succeed so its a valid point for discussion. NAN was put forward as an example of how to go about it. Well either NAN said stuff it to GE, we have used you to get established now you can go,
Nice. Or GE said stuff it to NAN , you are not paying us enough to do your distributing and we feel used. Partnerships dont always work out unless the inputs and compensations are pretty equal.

GE is not going,they will continue as a non exclusive sales agent for NAN--more on Nan thread

[Balance]

One of you strong proponents of great things to come for PEB may like to have a closer look at the last set of financial statements and presentations by PEB with particular focus on the cash flow and revenue situation.


Still no takers?

Do the analysis and I guarantee you will not find such a glaring example of revenue/debtors' drag anywhere else.

Some very interesting implications arising for cash burn and cash flow.

[psychic]

I guess that depends on whether you think debtor collection is likely to be consistent going forward. I don't. It should significantly improve as the test and reimbursement chanels become established.

I don't doubt that direct Insurance settlements could be slow , and assume this is why PEB has made the deals with Fedmed etc already.

[Balance]

I guess that depends on whether you think debtor collection is likely to be consistent going forward. I don't. It should significantly improve as the test and reimbursement chanels become established.

I don't doubt that direct Insurance settlements could be slow , and assume this is why PEB has made the deals with Fedmed etc already.

Been established for over 1 year!

[BFG]

Still no takers?

Do the analysis and I guarantee you will not find such a glaring example of revenue/debtors' drag anywhere else.

Some very interesting implications arising for cash burn and cash flow.

Is it (dare I say it) Snakk'esque? ;)

[Balance]

Is it (dare I say it) Snakk'esque? ;)

Haha - not at all. It is more about the promised 'tens of thousands of tests' and why the accounts put a big gigantic lie to that statement!

[Balance]

Regardless of the comments from all the ‘Legends’ and ‘Gurus’ I’m still invested in Pacific Edge. Wot’s all this about tens of thousands? How come this wasn’t mentioned before? Oh, well, who cares – still invested in PEB.

Good on you, Hancocks. Never had any issue with anyone investing in any stock as long as there are useful and fruitful discussions around investing in the stock.

Re 'tens of thousands of tests' - not going to go through all that again!

[Dentie]

Still no takers?

Do the analysis and I guarantee you will not find such a glaring example of revenue/debtors' drag anywhere else.

Some very interesting implications arising for cash burn and cash flow.

I'm happy enough Balance, considering where PEB are in the rollout of their business model.

Based on the HY result (and where they are - in these early stages of sales)... and compared with the last couple of years .... liquidity ratio's are still quite healthy, profitability ratio's (-ve) are declining encouragingly, their efficiency ratio's are looking impressive and of course - their leverage ratio's are very healthy. Importantly, cash is being used wisely indeed!

Let's see where they are at the FY15 release before panicking. Before then and I think the mud is being thrown prematurely. Again, given where they are in the time line - I'm not concerned about the level of their debtors. Certainly no reason to panic and start to push the factoring button!

It's no secret I'm well involved with PEB ... and see no current reason not to remain that way!

[Schrodinger]

Good on you, Hancocks. Never had any issue with anyone investing in any stock as long as there are useful and fruitful discussions around investing in the stock.

Re 'tens of thousands of tests' - not going to go through all that again!

Wait when did they mention ten thousand's tests?


Just joking...

[Balance]

Wait when did they mention ten thousand's tests?


Just joking...

Haha - Why it is not worthwhile revisting the issue is that 2014 is over and there's no debate needed anymore as to whether the Chairman meant June 2014 year, or calender year 2014 that PEB will do 'tens of thousands of tests."

When PEB announces its March 2015 year results, there will be much gnashing of teeth. :D

[Minerbarejet]

Haha - Why it is not worthwhile revisting the issue is that 2014 is over and there's no debate needed anymore as tyo whether the Chairman meant June 2014 year, or calender year 2014 that PEB will do 'tens of thousands of tests."

When PEB announces its March 2015 year results, there will be much gnashing of teeth. :D
Thought you werent going through it all again?:)

[couta1]

Thought you werent going through it all again?:)
Some weeds are hard to keep at bay aye:eek2:

[Schrodinger]

How's that 'research' coming along?

brb..copy pasting from PEB reports...

[Balance]

I'm happy enough Balance, considering where PEB are in the rollout of their business model.

Based on the HY result (and where they are - in these early stages of sales)... and compared with the last couple of years .... liquidity ratio's are still quite healthy, profitability ratio's (-ve) are declining encouragingly, their efficiency ratio's are looking impressive and of course - their leverage ratio's are very healthy. Importantly, cash is being used wisely indeed!

Let's see where they are at the FY15 release before panicking. Before then and I think the mud is being thrown prematurely. Again, given where they are in the time line - I'm not concerned about the level of their debtors. Certainly no reason to panic and start to push the factoring button!

It's no secret I'm well involved with PEB ... and see no current reason not to remain that way!

Emotive words, Dentie - 'mud', 'panic' - totally inappropriate imo when investing in shares.

The following numbers give an insight into PEB's operations :

$'000 HY15 FY14 HY14
Sales 1011 523 100
Debtors (TR) 1404 574 197

Sales are essentially on very long extended credit terms. The more sales PEB generates (assumption here of more sales), the more working capital PEB is going to require.

Meanwhile, cash burn is running at between $1m to $1.5m a month which means that by June this year, PEB is likely to be down to its last $5m cash or less.

Cash/capital raising to be announced in conjunction with its FY15 results announcement must be a distinct possibility.

[couta1]

Came in to see if anything interesting was happening but its still the same "blah blah blah" from last year.

*yawn*
Your got to have patience like you do with Sum aye, go and hibernate for a bit longer:cool:

[Dentie]

Emotive words, Dentie - 'mud', 'panic' - totally inappropriate imo when investing in shares.

The following numbers give an insight into PEB's operations :

$'000 HY15 FY14 HY14
Sales 1011 523 100
Debtors (TR) 1404 574 197

Sales are essentially on very long extended credit terms. The more sales PEB generates (assumption here of more sales), the more working capital PEB is going to require.

Meanwhile, cash burn is running at between $1m to $1.5m a month which means that by June this year, PEB is likely to be down to its last $5m cash or less.

Cash/capital raising to be announced in conjunction with its FY15 results announcement must be a distinct possibility.

'Mud' and 'panic' ... just a bit of phraseology to enable a bit of relevant perspective ... no emotion here Balance! Perhaps 'concern' and 'rocketing worry' would suit?

Anyway, as I said, I'll wait for FY15 to be released before I assess what the next step might be. I agree about the credit and working capital but given they are just in the early stages of winding their operation up and getting their processes and contracts in place etc, it is to be expected. As time moves on though, I am sure CS, DD and their advisors will have these bases covered.

Don't forget they have funded everything mainly on equity to date - so having no debt I think is a credit (no pun intended) to them. I don't believe it is good policy to rely entirely on equity so as they crank things up, maybe they will look at some debt "just to balance the balance sheet" (again, no pun intended!!).

The debt may only happen if their trading cash is insufficient to cover operations. I will not be surprised though if they start making surplus cash not too far down the track.

That all said, if another CR is preferred - I'll listen! to their reasoning.

[BFG]

Emotive words, Dentie - 'mud', 'panic' - totally inappropriate imo when investing in shares.

The following numbers give an insight into PEB's operations :

$'000 HY15 FY14 HY14
Sales 1011 523 100
Debtors (TR) 1404 574 197

Sales are essentially on very long extended credit terms. The more sales PEB generates (assumption here of more sales), the more working capital PEB is going to require.

Meanwhile, cash burn is running at between $1m to $1.5m a month which means that by June this year, PEB is likely to be down to its last $5m cash or less.

Cash/capital raising to be announced in conjunction with its FY15 results announcement must be a distinct possibility.

*Wonders why solid information like this is seen as yawn material when promises were made of no more dilution and the last cap raise taking the company into profitability. Goung to be a mighty thin line their skating it is still rings true, at best. At worst...*

[Dentie]

Came in to see if anything interesting was happening but its still the same "blah blah blah" from last year.

*yawn*

Sorry to wake you NG.;)

[psychic]

*Wonders why solid information like this is seen as yawn material when promises were made of no more dilution and the last cap raise taking the company into profitability. Goung to be a mighty thin line their skating it is still rings true, at best. At worst...*

Largely I guess because it was kicked around when the info became available, and covering the same ground again is, well .. yawn.

[BFG]

Largely I guess because it was kicked around when the info became available, and covering the same ground again is, well .. yawn.

Thanks for that.

Not for the reply, but my count on head-in-sand individuals on this forum.

A good indicator, just like the post/view count indicator ;)

[Xerof]

Gee moosie, you're easily swayed. Last week you were about to buy PEB. I think you are a hare, a hound, but definitely not a moose

[BFG]

Gee moosie, you're easily swayed. Last week you were about to buy PEB. I think you are a hare, a hound, but definitely not a moose
I did some homework (shock horror!) and found information that made me swing very rapidly to the NO camp.

If you look back a bit you can see what it was that swayed me.

[psychic]

Thanks for that.

Not for the reply, but my count on head-in-sand individuals on this forum.

A good indicator, just like the post/view count indicator ;)

I'm sorry if I've missed something that you may have posted that was worth reading. What was it?

[Balance]

Thanks for that.

Not for the reply, but my count on head-in-sand individuals on this forum.

A good indicator, just like the post/view count indicator ;)

Haha - you should know by now, BFG that you can warn of a freight train with warning red lights and they will still see it as the light at the end of the tunnel - finally! :D

[BFG]

Haha - you should know by now, BFG that you can warn of a freight train with warning red lights and they will still see it as the light at the end of the tunnel - finally! :D

You can lead an ostrich to water...

[Balance]

Don't forget they have funded everything mainly on equity to date - so having no debt I think is a credit (no pun intended) to them. I don't believe it is good policy to rely entirely on equity so as they crank things up, maybe they will look at some debt "just to balance the balance sheet" (again, no pun intended!!).

The debt may only happen if their trading cash is insufficient to cover operations. I will not be surprised though if they start making surplus cash not too far down the track.

That all said, if another CR is preferred - I'll listen! to their reasoning.

Realistically no banks will lend money to PEB until such time as it is profitable and shows sustainable profit and cash flow.

So there's no credit in PEB having no debt - in fact, it will be to PEB's credit if it had been able to obtain debt - huge vote of confidence from the banks!

As i have mentioned, in many years of looking at many many balance sheets, I cannot recall seeing trade receivables higher than sales revenue!

No wonder the results presentation had this memorable line : "Utilisation of $0.6m of cash in 1H15, including funding received from short term deposits"

[winner69]

The $66m of equity shareholders have put in worth $240m on the market

That's a pretty decent return over the years

PEB are doing well

[Balance]

The $66m of equity shareholders have put in worth $240m on the market

That's a pretty decent return over the years

PEB are doing well

W69, that's what they said about Rakon and Plus SMS, remember - $1 in at IPO was worth $4 at one stage in Rakon, and $1 in Plus SMS was worth $2000 at one stage.

Profits and returns have to be booked before any shareholder can say he/she has done well.

Masfen, Huljich and a few others had been selling so they have done well.

[winner69]

W69, that's what they said about Rakon and Plus SMS, remember?

Not allowed to engine Rakon on this thread so no comment on them

[winner69]

W69, that's what they said about Rakon and Plus SMS, remember?

Profits and returns have to be booked before any shareholder can say he/she has done well.

Masfen, Huljich and a few others had been selling so they have done well.

Good of you not to mention the chairman

[Balance]

Not allowed to engine Rakon on this thread so no comment on them

Really?

What happened?

[winner69]

W69, that's what they said about Rakon and Plus SMS, remember - $1 in at IPO was worth $4 at one stage in Rakon, and $1 in Plus SMS was worth $2000 at one stage.

Profits and returns have to be booked before any shareholder can say he/she has done well.

Masfen, Huljich and a few others had been selling so they have done well.

But just shows you what a magical place the market is ..... turning $66m into $240m without any profits

[Dentie]

Realistically no banks will lend money to PEB until such time as it is profitable and shows sustainable profit and cash flow.

So there's no credit in PEB having no debt - in fact, it will be to PEB's credit if it had been able to obtain debt - huge vote of confidence from the banks!



Well, once PEB has sustainable profit and cash flow Balance, it won't need the banks! I'd love to see PEB stay debt free....

On second thoughts...if PEB need another CR, they should go to the Govt in the first instance. Looks like they are a pushover for investing taxpayer's $$$$ :t_up:

[couta1]

was wondering how long it would be before this came up again. What is it with the refresher course today. Is it scare newbies week?:)
Its Groundhog day for the bored.

[Vince]

It was me and I deleted 546 "deleted" posts of Hancocks which nobody could see anyway.

Vince

[Xerof]

I'd say hancocks has had enough.....eeeee.....vince has outed himself, but hey, Gryffyn didn't start this thread!!

I have found the best solution for anti-trolling is to form a private group, entry by invitation only. There are plenty of free hosting sites offering such services. I used them extensively for FX trading groups in a past life - they can be 'live chat' or simply uploading of data, material or comments/conversations. I met and conversed with people from all over the planet - 24/7 there would be someone in the room. The public rooms were atrocious - trolling was much worse than on here. Live chat might be a little over the top for a shareholder group - things don't move quite as fast as FX!!

If the group carries sufficient % of shareholding by proxy, company personnel/directors may make themselves available for 'one on one' casual calls/meetings with a rep of the group (fleshing out, rather than insider info) which can then be distributed privately throughout the group on a confidential basis. Much like fund analyst meetings.

Just an idea for the few of you who put up meaningful research and explanations to genuinely assist others.

[stoploss]

I'd say hancocks has had enough.....eeeee.....vince has outed himself, but hey, Gryffyn didn't start this thread!!

I have found the best solution for anti-trolling is to form a private group, entry by invitation only. There are plenty of free hosting sites offering such services. I used them extensively for FX trading groups in a past life - they can be 'live chat' or simply uploading of data, material or comments/conversations. I met and conversed with people from all over the planet - 24/7 there would be someone in the room. The public rooms were atrocious - trolling was much worse than on here. Live chat might be a little over the top for a shareholder group - things don't move quite as fast as FX!!

If the group carries sufficient % of shareholding by proxy, company personnel/directors may make themselves available for 'one on one' casual calls/meetings with a rep of the group (fleshing out, rather than insider info) which can then be distributed privately throughout the group on a confidential basis. Much like fund analyst meetings.

Just an idea for the few of you who put up meaningful research and explanations to genuinely assist others.

Not one of these !!!!!!!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/32ad3362-6b39-11e4-be68-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RKg2GEZa

[Balance]

Well, once PEB has sustainable profit and cash flow Balance, it won't need the banks! I'd love to see PEB stay debt free....

On second thoughts...if PEB need another CR, they should go to the Govt in the first instance. Looks like they are a pushover for investing taxpayer's $$$$ :t_up:

Haha - that's why banks are called fair weather sailors.

[skid]

I'd say hancocks has had enough.....eeeee.....vince has outed himself, but hey, Gryffyn didn't start this thread!!

I have found the best solution for anti-trolling is to form a private group, entry by invitation only. There are plenty of free hosting sites offering such services. I used them extensively for FX trading groups in a past life - they can be 'live chat' or simply uploading of data, material or comments/conversations. I met and conversed with people from all over the planet - 24/7 there would be someone in the room. The public rooms were atrocious - trolling was much worse than on here. Live chat might be a little over the top for a shareholder group - things don't move quite as fast as FX!!

If the group carries sufficient % of shareholding by proxy, company personnel/directors may make themselves available for 'one on one' casual calls/meetings with a rep of the group (fleshing out, rather than insider info) which can then be distributed privately throughout the group on a confidential basis. Much like fund analyst meetings.

Just an idea for the few of you who put up meaningful research and explanations to genuinely assist others.

I can see why this would seem like a good idea for those who have gotten fed up with what seems like unnecessary noise--but the downside of an exclusive club of verified shareholders is that there is then no one to keep it ''honest''--while not always being pleasant-some of the contrarian views are of real benefit.
I think in the end its a matter of what you are looking for--the truth(not that you will always get it) or what you want to hear---i think in the end ,your experiment would end up back here---You can block posters that you feel are detracting from the thread

[winner69]

True skid, but the problem is that the signal/noise ratio remains atrociously low even if crap posters are blocked etc. I'd rather converse with a small group of like minded astute individuals than be subjected to the endless rants and raves of the masses. If that makes me a snob, then so be it.

Who's in???

Go for it mate

There's a GROUP facility on this site.

[skid]

True skid, but the problem is that the signal/noise ratio remains atrociously low even if crap posters are blocked etc. I'd rather converse with a small group of like minded astute individuals than be subjected to the endless rants and raves of the masses. If that makes me a snob, then so be it.

Who's in???

Thats fair enough--but it may be of some value to ask your self which views would have been most beneficial to listen to at this stage.

Over on Hot Copper they have it set up so you must acknowledge if you are holding or not and what your view is on the share (buy-hold-sell)

How will you screen posters to see if they are bonified share holders? And more importantly ,how will you get a balanced debate?

And one last thought--if there was an announcement tomorrow and the SP went to $1--would you still feel the same --or would you all come flooding back to celebrate?

I dont think it will work --but nevertheless Good luck:)

[skid]

Hancocks,
I would imagine that through your patience and knowledge you are sitting very comfortably in the black.
It would be interesting to hear from someone who is deep in the red (other than coutts)

Id like to respectfully ask if you are holding any other shares

[MAC]

I would agree Hancock’s, it’s all about perspective, long investors just want to share and compare and discuss over time.

There are different types of animals, growth investors, value investors, yield investors, each of whom also have different comfort levels across the entire risk reward curve.

There are some who steer away from pre-profitable stocks like PEB altogether preferring lower risk lower reward portfolio’s, absolutely nothing wrong with that either.

It’s different though for a minority of short termers though who spend their day time hours ramping up or down as a full time job, misguidedly I think, despite the big ego’s they don’t have any real influence at all aside perhaps from scaring the newer newbies. A waste of one’s life really.

I don’t see any problem with likeminded investors, bulls and bears, whom hold similar investment strategies getting together, it’s not like it doesn’t happen already by PM now.

The good stuff doesn’t make the forum until it’s already old anyway, and all can still choose to wade through what they each as individuals may each regard as noise on threads like this anyway.

[skid]

I would agree Hancock’s, it’s all about perspective, long investors just want to share and compare and discuss over time.

There are different types of animals, growth investors, value investors, yield investors, each of whom also have different comfort levels across the entire risk reward curve.

There are some who steer away from pre-profitable stocks like PEB altogether preferring lower risk lower reward portfolio’s, absolutely nothing wrong with that either.

It’s different though for a minority of short termers though who spend their day time hours ramping up or down as a full time job, misguidedly I think, despite the big ego’s they don’t have any real influence at all aside perhaps from scaring the newer newbies. A waste of one’s life really.

I don’t see any problem with likeminded investors, bulls and bears, whom hold similar investment strategies getting together, it’s not like it doesn’t happen already by PM now.

The good stuff doesn’t make the forum until it’s already old anyway, and all can still choose to wade through what they each as individuals may each regard as noise on threads like this anyway.

How do you know that PEB is pre -profitable? Is assuming that it will be profitable a given?

How do you know that steering away from PEB to NAN which I consider lower risk is not higher reward?

Some of the posters comments on the DIL thread over time DID have an influence on how I have invested-I learned how to use caution (if thats what you mean by scare tactics then ...

Im a like minded investor...i like to see a black arrow rather than red ..just like the rest

[skid]

There is an EITHER Sharetrader OR another thread element to your statement, skid.
There is nothing to stop anyone belonging to Sharetrader and, provided they are accepted by the group, to another site on the same topic.
If anyone feels in the need of a daily fix of light hearted banter, for and against, then it is quite easy to login to Sharetrader

Perhaps those with what may be called a less than positive view could start their own club with nonownership the criteria.
Buying in or selling out would not necessarily mean instant approval for the alternative thread though.:)

Caution....

[Balance]

True skid, but the problem is that the signal/noise ratio remains atrociously low even if crap posters are blocked etc. I'd rather converse with a small group of like minded astute individuals than be subjected to the endless rants and raves of the masses. If that makes me a snob, then so be it.

Who's in???

Please get the heck out of ST if you have that kind of attitude - we do not need myopic one eyed cheerleaders/rampers who think the forum is just for them.

Have a read of CRP and NZOG, and read the abuse heaped on those who dare to write and continue to write cautionary (and yes, at times repetitive) comments. Those who listened saved themselves a heap of grief and dole.

So goodbye, NG - glad to see the back of you. :D

Cheers!

[Balance]

LOL, like I would ever do something just because you told me. Quite an ego you have there.

And its not like I've posted much over the last few months anyway.

NEXT.

Precisely - cheerleaders/rampers like to read only what they prefer to read.

There have been significant developments in the industry PEB operates in but you miss them, and will continue to miss them because you are too busy looking for reinforcements and reaffirmations of your views.

CRP, NZOG, SNK etc - seen it all.

[Balance]

Not only have you seen it all, but you know it all too. Wonderful. So happy for you etc.

Unfortunately, however, your accusation of confirmation bias couldn't be any more wrong it you tried. I have given PEB a very hard time on this forum even though I was holding a parcel worth over $100k all the way through.

And these pointless conversations are exactly why I would rather talk in a group than participate on here.

Cheers.

Please do set up your group and spare us your cheerleading antics.

Companies like PEB, NZOG, Snakk etc pump up enough good news NOT to require further commentary from the cheerleaders.

[skid]

Since everyone has started ''debating'' the SP has gone up 2c (maybe its not such a bad thing eh?):)

[NT001]

Why is it that this particular thread makes contributors more interested in pointlessly slagging each other off than simply addressing the issues like grown-ups? We've already been warned by STMOD, and believe me, this stuff is pretty unedifying.

[Leftfield]

Not only have you seen it all, but you know it all too. Wonderful. So happy for you etc.

New Guy I suggest you visit the 'Ignore list' in your settings. Life becomes a lot more bearable once the ignore option is exercised on any unbalanced poster.

[winner69]

NewGuy - you could always try this site out, especially how it is promoted

An Alternative to that biased, joke that is Sharetrader.
www.*************forum.com

oops - this site doesn't like the link to the opposition

Nevermind .... probably not much better anyway

[skid]

Its called Share Investor--I tried searching for PEB-----no results

[MAC]

So smoking cigarettes and cigars gives you bladder cancer as we all very well know, and now it seems from yet another study that using cannabis appears to actually lower your chance of getting it, perhaps some folk use either or maybe even both, I stay away from it all myself.

http://norml.org/news/2015/02/05/study-history-of-cannabis-use-associated-with-reduced-bladder-cancer-risk

But then as a smoker you would know where you stand for sure by requesting a Cxbladder(detect) test online, five days later and you’ll know with confidence.

http://www.cxbladder.com/order-form

[skid]

Thank you Mac--Just when I thought Id seen it all..:eek2:

And dont forget to buy you ticket with Air New Zealand--and book your spot with Summerset ,and maybe one for your wife at Ryman.
Accounting soft ware up to date?--try Xero and speaking of soft ware ,have you seen the latest from Diligent?

But wait, theres more...........:)

[Balance]

Sp down to 73c with a window dresser trying to make the sp look better by buying 200 shares at 77c when sp traded at 73c.

Meanwhile, there's news out there but don't expect to read or hear about it from PEB.

[skid]

C'mon Balance, I have my doubts as well..but i think total transparency would be more helpful..

[biker]

Sp down to 73c with a window dresser trying to make the sp look better by buying 200 shares at 77c when sp traded at 73c.

Meanwhile, there's news out there but don't expect to read or hear about it from PEB.

OK Balance I'll play your game. What's the news, or would an answer to that mess with your air of hidden knowledge and intrigue?

[Crystal Ball]

Freight train .......... honk honk, that must be Thomas surely.
... Could be Percy?

[Balance]

lol....... I would accuse you of stirring the PEB bulls up again balance............. but there certainly is news out there in the bio marker world that would explain the weakness in the PEB share price.
Freight train coming............. honk honk
Please DYOR............all information balance has is freely available...just got to know where to look.
One must always keep researching especially in the fast moving bio tech sector.

The 200 shares bought at 77c, after all previous trades (in decent volumes) were at 73c and 74c, is as blatant a window dress as I have seen in along time - either that or there's a seriously naive punter out there.

DYOR, PEB bulls - not up to the likes of Snapiti or I to share all the infor we have based upon our own efforts, given the reception and abuse we receive whenever we post anything.

Clue to the newies - when researching any company, listen to the company and its supporters last. Talk to and listen/read carefully to its competitors, its suppliers, its customers, its financiers, industry players, government agencies/regulators etc.

I remember Feltex was still talking its prospects up even while its suppliers and creditors were chasing the company over unpaid bills. PEB is no Feltex, far from it - am just making the point that companies will always talk up their prospects.

Trade No. Time Price Volume Value Conditions
19 2:47:22 pm 0.73 2,856 $2,085
18 2:14:46 pm 0.74 4,800 $3,552
17 2:10:05 pm 0.74 10,000 $7,400
16 1:12:39 pm 0.77 200 $154
15 12:18:41 pm 0.73 6,639 $4,846
14 12:18:41 pm 0.73 5,000 $3,650
13 12:18:41 pm 0.73 505 $369
12 11:45:20 am 0.73 13,698 $10,000
11 11:45:20 am 0.73 4,723 $3,448
10 11:23:30 am 0.73 13,716 $10,013

[Schrodinger]

The 200 shares bought at 77c, after all previous trades (in decent volumes) were at 73c and 74c, is as blatant a window dress as I have seen in along time - either that or there's a seriously naive punter out there.

DYOR, PEB bulls - not up to the likes of Snapiti or I to share all the infor we have based upon our own efforts, given the reception and abuse we receive whenever we post anything.

Clue to the newies - when researching any company, listen to the company and its supporters last. Talk to and listen/read carefully to its competitors, its suppliers, its customers, its financiers, industry players, government agencies/regulators etc.

I remember Feltex was still talking its prospects up even while its suppliers and creditors were chasing the company over unpaid bills. PEB is no Feltex, far from it - am just making the point that companies will always talk up their prospects.

Trade No. Time Price Volume Value Conditions
19 2:47:22 pm 0.73 2,856 $2,085
18 2:14:46 pm 0.74 4,800 $3,552
17 2:10:05 pm 0.74 10,000 $7,400
16 1:12:39 pm 0.77 200 $154
15 12:18:41 pm 0.73 6,639 $4,846
14 12:18:41 pm 0.73 5,000 $3,650
13 12:18:41 pm 0.73 505 $369
12 11:45:20 am 0.73 13,698 $10,000
11 11:45:20 am 0.73 4,723 $3,448
10 11:23:30 am 0.73 13,716 $10,013

Milford at it again?

[BlackPeter]

lol....... I would accuse you of stirring the PEB bulls up again balance............. but there certainly is news out there in the bio marker world that would explain the weakness in the PEB share price.
Freight train coming............. honk honk
Please DYOR............all information balance has is freely available...just got to know where to look.
One must always keep researching especially in the fast moving bio tech sector.

not sure how to put this in a nice way ... but why am I reminded of long gone by Kindergarten days?

Any chance Snaps and balance that we treat each other here like grown ups? If you have relevant information, than I propose that you put it up here and now, so that people can read it themselves and discuss it. I can't really imagine that anybody would shoot you down for providing facts. However, if you are just playing games and like to scaremonger people, than may I propose you just shut up - I don't see anything useful which can be achieved that way.

[BlackPeter]

Snaps & Balance - this your fr(e)ight train?

http://www.fiercediagnostics.com/press-releases/abbott-acquires-exclusive-license-bladder-cancer-biomarker

[Balance]

Milford at it again?

Heavens forbid - notice Milford has hired a top legal gun to interact with the toothless bureaucratic FMA?

But there is definitely something very strange going on with the PEB quotes.

Notice how there's a 100,000 on the bid side, but always a couple of cents below the market price?

When the 75 cents were taken out a few days ago, the 100k at 74c moved to 73c.

When the 74c were taken out yesterday, the 100k moved to 73c and now it is sitting at 71c.

Seller trying to corral buyers to put up bids?

[Schrodinger]

It will all come out in the wash long term short term though it looks like some manipulation in several stocks. Interested to know the % fundies trade of total volume/value. NZX would have these numbers.

[Dentie]

lol....... I would accuse you of stirring the PEB bulls up again balance............. but there certainly is news out there in the bio marker world that would explain the weakness in the PEB share price.
Freight train coming............. honk honk
Please DYOR............all information balance has is freely available...just got to know where to look.
One must always keep researching especially in the fast moving bio tech sector.

Can't keep up with you lot...one minute the SP is way overvalued (or too strong?) and now I read it is undervalued (or too weak?).

Perhaps some see PEB succeeding, or a growing SP ...ONLY if they gain 100% of the market (ie no competitors)?

[Dentie]

One thing that makes me cynical about the well meaning fatherly advice is, why has it been left at least a week - or maybe even two before deciding it was safe enough to "release" the big teaser comment to the punters on this thread? It is about as insincere as it gets I reckon.

[Mista_Trix]

I have always thought PEB needed a joint venture to penetrate the market in a timely manner.
Unfortunately (despite looking) they could not find any one willing to partner them.
The bulls will have you believe that it was PEB ultimately who chose to go it alone.... that of course is true but only because no one wanted to know them.
Also unfortunately this has given a golden opportunity for other bio marker companies(yes multiple) to have the time to further develop their products for market before PEB gets a foot hold.
I encourage you all to research the growing list of products in the bio marker sector, who they have as JV partnerships and the price points of products.

While I don't respect the way you've done it, I do respect that its been done, so I'll just play the ball not the man.

Good stuff for pointing this out, more to think about when assessing the risks associated with this stock.
I think this thread can be a bit sensitive at times - from both sides.

Knowledge is power, and we're all the more informed,
Good stuff :)

[Balance]

I have always thought PEB needed a joint venture to penetrate the market in a timely manner.
Unfortunately (despite looking) they could not find any one willing to partner them.
The bulls will have you believe that it was PEB ultimately who chose to go it alone.... that of course is true but only because no one wanted to know them.
Also unfortunately this has given a golden opportunity for other bio marker companies to have the time to further develop their products for market before PEB gets a foot hold.
I encourage you all to research the growing list of products in the bio marker sector, who they have as JV partnerships and the price points of products.

PEB would of course assert that theirs is the only truly effective and reliable test in the market, and all the others do not stand up to scrutiny.

Fair enough but the market for any product is not simply about the best technical product being successful sometimes.

It is also about speed to market and establishment of an effective (and profitable) marketing, promotion, distribution and sales platform.

That's where the JV structure comes in.

[skid]

Out of the shadows and into the light--do with it what you will
http://www.clpmag.com/2015/01/abbott-acquires-rights-early-bladder-cancer-biomarker/

[Balance]

Out of the shadows and into the light--do with it what you will
http://www.clpmag.com/2015/01/abbott-acquires-rights-early-bladder-cancer-biomarker/

"Abbott currently offers the only FDA-approved urine-based molecular test for bladder cancer, UroVysion, which is included in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and European Association of Urology guidelines.

The FGFR3 mutation analysis assay will be available in early 2015. Abbott is also in the process of developing reagents for further studies, and is exploring collaborations with pharmaceutical companies to leverage the FGFR3 test as a companion diagnostic for emerging bladder cancer therapies."

Abbott only generates in excess of US$20 billion of sales a year - nothing compared to PEB.

[Schrodinger]

"Abbott currently offers the only FDA-approved urine-based molecular test for bladder cancer, UroVysion, which is included in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and European Association of Urology guidelines.

The FGFR3 mutation analysis assay will be available in early 2015. Abbott is also in the process of developing reagents for further studies, and is exploring collaborations with pharmaceutical companies to leverage the FGFR3 test as a companion diagnostic for emerging bladder cancer therapies."

Abbott only generates in excess of US$20 billion of sales a year - nothing compared to PEB.

Does the Abbott system do what PEB does in a different way?

[winner69]

Remember the Darling definition of successful commercialisation is 'getting a product to market'

Enduring sales and profitability is not part of that equation

I'm allowed to say that because not that long ago I put real cash into the business

[skid]

Soooooo....it was BFG who did some digging...before being banNEd--------I think we are going to call him ''Banned on the run''

[MAC]

Out of the shadows and into the light--do with it what you will
http://www.clpmag.com/2015/01/abbott-acquires-rights-early-bladder-cancer-biomarker/

Well done Skid you’ve highlighted the importance of game changing disruptive technologies, and Uroysion have done very well indeed to flip FGFR3 onto others right about now;

A contributing reason for them doing so will undoubtedly be the pending Pacific Edge study, presently underway, that will directly compare the performance of Uroyvision with Cxbladder.

As I understand, it is a very similar study to the one Pacific Edge conducted to demonstrate the superiority of Cxbladder over Alere’s NMP22. The results of this study are due quite soon as I’m aware.

One of the challenges for any prospective competitor is that they really do need to demonstrate a quantum leap in process detection. Especially in the very early stages of tumor detection where the big benefits lie for patients, where the bulk of tests are performed, and where the big prospective commercial gains are possible.

Most importantly are the Tis, Ta, T1, T2 and T3 early stages of cancer, these are the ones, where if detected, then your chances of recovery as a patient still remain prospective.

As one can see from the table we all know below, it is really very hard indeed for any competitor to compete with the 100% sensitivity that Pacific Edge offer, and clinicians may well choose a product with 100% sensitivity over one that is less accurate as lives are literally in their hands.

I think some really do under estimate just how competitive these Pacific Edge products really are likely to be and just what a leap they represent as a disruptive technology.

Good luck Abbot, you have bought an aging dog.

7041

[skid]

Well done Skid you’ve highlighted the importance of game changing disruptive technologies, and Uroysion have done very well indeed to flip FGFR3 onto others right about now;

A contributing reason for them doing so will undoubtedly be the pending Pacific Edge study, presently underway, that will directly compare the performance of Uroyvision with Cxbladder.

As I understand, it is a very similar study to the one Pacific Edge conducted to demonstrate the superiority of Cxbladder over Alere’s NMP22. The results of this study are due quite soon as I’m aware.

One of the challenges for any prospective competitor is that they really do need to demonstrate a quantum leap in process detection. Especially in the very early stages of tumor detection where the big benefits lie for patients, where the bulk of tests are performed, and where the big prospective commercial gains are possible.

Most importantly are the Tis, Ta, T1, T2 and T3 early stages of cancer, these are the ones, where if detected, then your chances of recovery as a patient still remain prospective.

As one can see from the table we all know below, it is really very hard indeed for any competitor to compete with the 100% sensitivity that Pacific Edge offer, and clinicians may well choose a product with 100% sensitivity over one that is less accurate as lives are literally in their hands.

I think some really do under estimate just how competitive these Pacific Edge products really are likely to be and just what a leap they represent as a disruptive technology.

Good luck Abbot, you have bought an aging dog.

7041

Was'nt really me --I just brought it into the light of day so was'nt guessing games any more
In this article it looks like they have a bit of a jump on most competitors if the second illustation is anything to go by--but of course CX is not on there so its obviuosly not the full picture
https://lsconnect.thomsonreuters.com/bladder-cancer-new-drugs-pipeline-role-biomarkers/

PS-just because i have run with another outfit doesnt mean i dont wish any KIWI company well--Its damn frustrating they are not even included in the illustration.

[skid]

Was'nt really me --I just brought it into the light of day so was'nt guessing games any more
In this article it looks like they have a bit of a jump on most competitors if the second illustation is anything to go by--but of course CX is not on there so its obviuosly not the full picture
https://lsconnect.thomsonreuters.com/bladder-cancer-new-drugs-pipeline-role-biomarkers/

PS-just because i have run with another outfit doesnt mean i dont wish any KIWI company well--Its damn frustrating they are not even included in the illustration.


Its just occurred to me that these examples are FDA approved--so it goes to show that while it may not be necessary--it is a good look,if no no other reason than to be included on the illustration

[biker]

Glad I made my money on PEB when it suddenly rocketed, which seems so long ago now, so I can view this thread, with its strutting ego's and cryptic innuendo as entertainment and with bemused interest.

Otherwise, why would you

(merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bemuse
to cause to have feelings of wry or tolerant amusement)

[Minerbarejet]

Abbott:

Activating FGFR3 gene mutations are seen in about 70% of low-grade and 15 to 20% of high-grade bladder cancer cases, making them useful biomarkers to assist in early detection.

Pacific Edge:


Detected 100% of T1-T3, Tis and upper tract tumours.
Detected 97% of high-grade tumours.
Detected 68% of Ta tumours as compared to cytology at 35%.
Distinguished between low grade Ta tumours and other detected urothelial carcinomas with a sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 90%

No comment

[Balance]

There have been some very good postings by the likes of Snapiti questioning and commenting on PEB's commercialization strategy, and why PEB is failing to get real sales traction out there.

Issue here is that the PEB bulls simply do not want to know.

A classic example is Snapiti questioning why at this stage of the sales and commercialization cycle is PEB resorting to user programs to try and convert urologists to use CxBladder. Is this really part of PEB's commercialization strategy from day 1 or is it a case of backtracking in the absence of sales? The evidence from PEB's presentations point towards a backtrack.

Meanwhile, PEB bulls think that other players with existing tests are sitting still?

The move by Abbott is an example of them upping their game to improve their test(s) and entrench their market position. Snapiti has alerted to others who are upping their game as well.

$14m left in PEB's bank as at 30 September 2014 to take on the likes of Abbott with their established product, distribution network and billions of dollars at their disposal.

Cash burn of $1m to $1.5m a month - will there be enough actual sales before the cash runs out? You can only provide free tests and support user programs for so long.

And it's not like PEB is racking in the cash from sales made - debtor level on the balance sheet is higher than sales!!!!!! First time I have seen such a situation many years of analysing balance sheets.

[Balance]

Hi Balance, that is your opinion and good for you I respect that. A lot of the posts that were put up in the frenzy are actually quite flawed and seriously lacking – talk about hype and exaggeration. However, I will concede one point and that has been highlighted to me throughout this tag team display; and, that is that the freight train could either have been Thomas or Percy, since my post I have researched and have downloaded images of both engines with passenger and freight rolling stock.

"Tens of thousands of tests" and the Chairman selling shares after that - that was the give away for me that PEB is not meeting sales target as far as my initial assessment was concerned.

Subsequent to that, there are obviously other information which reinforces my perception (concession to you - my perception).

Competitors, suppliers, customers etc - that's who I talk to besides the companies i analyse.

[Crash Test Dummy]

Glad I made my money on PEB when it suddenly rocketed, which seems so long ago now, so I can view this thread, with its strutting ego's and cryptic innuendo as entertainment and with bemused interest.

Otherwise, why would you

(merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bemuse
to cause to have feelings of wry or tolerant amusement)

I prefer to bang my head against a brick wall. Repeatedly

[Minerbarejet]

Oct 2013 PEB signs up three major providers four months after release to market in US
Dec 2013 Infamous" tens of thousands" statement contained in ODT report

No comment

[Minerbarejet]

7.48 minerbarejet posts facts
7.49 Balance amends post to include chairman selling shares.
8.15 Balance posts a reply to himself.

no comment

[Balance]

7.48 minerbarejet posts facts
7.49 Balance amends post to include chairman selling shares.
8.15 Balance posts a reply to himself.

no comment

Thanks for the prompt about the Chairman selling.

Forgot to include it first time but since you provided the prompt with your timeline post, I included it. Thanks again!

27 March 2012 - "Labtests exclusive sales for CxBladder".
30 May 2013 - "Mid Central DHB first to use CxBladder"
10 Sep 2013 - "CxBladder excels in NZ".

2 Oct 2013 - "Agreement with Choice makes CXBladder available to 14 million Americans".
16 Oct 2013 - "Agreement with Fedmed makes CxBladder available to an additional 40 million Americans" etc etc etc.
18 Oct 2013 - "First commercial sale for CxBladder in US"
22 Oct 2013 - "Agreement with Stratose gives access to 8.6 million Americans".

28 Dec 2013 - "SEVERAL tens of thousands of tests in 2014".

7 Mar 2014 - "Chairman sells shares".
10 Mar 2014 - "CEO sells shares".

Did I miss the clarification by PEB to the "SEVERAL tens of thousands of tests"? Please put in as appropriate.

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for the prompt about the Chairman selling.

Forgot to include it first time but since you provided the prompt with your timeline post, I included it.

Thanks again!no comment

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for the prompt about the Chairman selling.

Forgot to include it first time but since you provided the prompt with your timeline post, I included it. Thanks again!

27 March 2012 - "Labtests exclusive sales for CxBladder".
30 May 2013 - "Mid Central DHB first to use CxBladder"
10 Sep 2013 - "CxBladder excels in NZ".

2 Oct 2013 - "Agreement with Choice makes CXBladder available to 14 million Americans".
16 Oct 2013 - "Agreement with Fedmed makes CxBladder available to an additional 40 million Americans" etc etc etc.
18 Oct 2013 - "First commercial sale for CxBladder in US"
22 Oct 2013 - "Agreement with Stratose gives access to 8.6 million Americans".

28 Dec 2013 - "SEVERAL tens of thousands of tests in 2014".

7 Mar 2014 - "Chairman sells shares".
10 Mar 2014 - "CEO sells shares".

Did I miss the clarification by PEB to the "SEVERAL tens of thousands of tests"? Please put in as appropriate.

7.48 minerbarejet posts facts
7.49 Balance amends post to include chairman selling shares.
8.15 Balance posts a reply to himself.
8.28 Minerbarejet posts timeline
8.49 Balance thanks Minerbarejet for posting a timeline at 8.28 that prompts him to amend his post to include "chairman selling shares" at 7.49

no comment

[Balance]

good research skid but there is two more new, ready to market, bladder cancer bio marker competitors with major JV partners rolling out their product
BFG will hopefully post the announcements when he comes off being red carded.
For the record I only got the info recently.

Could you imagine how the urologist feel about being bombarded with all these bio marker options........
Personally I think they will lean towards products being promoted by the large pharmaceuticals rather than an independent. Especially when the price war starts.

The development to date for those who are just joining the thread.

http://www.clpmag.com/2015/01/abbott...cer-biomarker/

"Abbott currently offers the only FDA-approved urine-based molecular test for bladder cancer, UroVysion, which is included in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and European Association of Urology guidelines.

The FGFR3 mutation analysis assay will be available in early 2015. Abbott is also in the process of developing reagents for further studies, and is exploring collaborations with pharmaceutical companies to leverage the FGFR3 test as a companion diagnostic for emerging bladder cancer therapies."

[Crystal Ball]

The development to date for those who are just joining the thread.

http://www.clpmag.com/2015/01/abbott...cer-biomarker/

"Abbott currently offers the only FDA-approved urine-based molecular test for bladder cancer, UroVysion, which is included in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and European Association of Urology guidelines.

The FGFR3 mutation analysis assay will be available in early 2015. Abbott is also in the process of developing reagents for further studies, and is exploring collaborations with pharmaceutical companies to leverage the FGFR3 test as a companion diagnostic for emerging bladder cancer therapies."
Cripes, hope this doesn t mean the death knoll for PEB...
Why oh why has it taken PEB so long to get to the FDA approval stage..

[Xerof]

For those new to the thread.....

and of far more consequence than the recent dramatic EXPOSE by the resident cock-teasers on this thread .....

the Crusaders lost 20/10 to the Rebels:eek2::eek2: ......jesus wept

I'm more worried by Carter's left leg injury, than Abbott, Costello and who-ever else has just been sold a pup of a product.

Could someone tell me who is the institution on the bid every closing auction please. Balance, is it you?

Oh, let me know when you are back off the bench

[MAC]

There are several other tests in the market place, hardly new news really, some of those have been available for 10 years now, some might even sell a few tests.

There are some that are in development too, but unless they can offer the same disruptive tech with 100% sensitivity within the key critical Tis, Ta, T1, T2 and T3 tumor stages, then they won’t be as good as Cxbladder(detect), it’s not easy equalling or bettering 100%, unless you think 101% is actually possible.

There are no other such test products presently available within the market, even if there was another in development at present, it then takes at least two, probably more, years to work through clinical trials and regulatory approvals to reach a commercial launch.

Pacific Edge already have two commercial test products and will have four commercial products by that time and are likely to be busy saturating the market with them, quite a barrier to entry even if others can do 100% too.

PEB should probably be well on their way to achieving their humble goal of achieving a 10% market share by then, quite an understated goal IMO, but perhaps in a couple of years another might come along with an equally good test and claim their own 10% of the market, who knows, it’s a big enough sand pit.

As for Abbot, they’ve bought very old and dated tech, and perhaps they will sell a few tests to suckers.

I’ll be happy to explain why their test will never really sell much, there is another really very good reason for that ?

Apologies for the ramble, just trying to better clarify for those new to Pacific Edge.

kind regards to all, Mac

[psychic]

The development to date for those who are just joining the thread.

http://www.clpmag.com/2015/01/abbott...cer-biomarker/

"Abbott currently offers the only FDA-approved urine-based molecular test for bladder cancer, UroVysion, which is included in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and European Association of Urology guidelines.

The FGFR3 mutation analysis assay will be available in early 2015. Abbott is also in the process of developing reagents for further studies, and is exploring collaborations with pharmaceutical companies to leverage the FGFR3 test as a companion diagnostic for emerging bladder cancer therapies."

Just for those joining the thread.. :)

Abbotts have the UroVysion test - which we know is expensive and inferior to CxBladder

They have acquired the exclusive rights to and will launch ANOTHER test based on FGFR3 gene mutation.

The use of FGFR3 mutation is not new and was part of the CertnDX test - which flopped under scrutiny of tighter CMS reiimbursement policy.

Activating FGFR3 gene mutations are seen in about 70% of low-grade and 15 to 20% of high-grade bladder cancer cases, making them useful biomarkers to assist in early detection.


Useful, perhaps. But how useful?

[nextbigthing]

10:00 The Moderators ban Minerbarejet & Balance for 3 days.

Dear MOD,

There's an interesting debate going on here and people who disagree are asking Balance for info etc which he can now no longer give. Sure some people need to watch how they say some things but blanket banning people whenever the debate gets a little heated is just frustrating and defeating the purpose of the forum.

If people don't like the way certain members post, let them block the member themselves.

Cheers,

Nextblockedthing

[Tsuba]

Cripes, hope this doesn t mean the death knoll for PEB...
Why oh why has it taken PEB so long to get to the FDA approval stage..

Was recently talking to a lady from the States who works in the pio tech world. FDA can take a long time to get for anyone.

[Dentie]

The development to date for those who are just joining the thread.

http://www.clpmag.com/2015/01/abbott...cer-biomarker/

"Abbott currently offers the only FDA-approved urine-based molecular test for bladder cancer, UroVysion, which is included in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and European Association of Urology guidelines.

The FGFR3 mutation analysis assay will be available in early 2015. Abbott is also in the process of developing reagents for further studies, and is exploring collaborations with pharmaceutical companies to leverage the FGFR3 test as a companion diagnostic for emerging bladder cancer therapies."

Bingo! Here's the expected and belated attempt to regain some sincerity, respect and credibility amongst thread dwellers. 'On ya' Balance!

Now doesn't that feel better than slinging innuendo & teasing comment around - obviously with the prime & collusional intent of creating a stampede by the bulls?

[skid]

So we seem to have 2 schools of thought here--the first is that, with what many think is a superior product--that alone should be enough to attain a dominate place in the market and convert to sales(thus achieving the target)
The second,while still believing that the product is good,maybe superior, are concerned that that alone is not enough.-that partnering up with a large company that is already established in the market place,or at the very least,an aggressive marketing campaign is necessary in the real world of the US medical community.
The idea that they are up against a heavyweight such as abbot has alarmed those in the second camp-(they have concerns that a company with the clout of abbot can tip the level playing field in their favor,with sweeteners,discounts,a stable of other products to use as leverage,etc.)-those in the first camp are not particularly worried because they feel the product is good enough to sell itself especially if the running tests show its better.--those in the second camp feel time is ticking in terms of the budget. They feel that if PEB would have had the opportunity to team up with their own heavyweight,they would have done so (to distribute the product)an example of this is PEB being distributed by Oryzon, in Spain and Portugal.
The first school feels that PEB have intentionally chosen to go it alone in the States(rather than their strategy in Spain and Portugal)
Have I missed anything?

[skid]

well done skid....... just 2 more things to add to the picture for consideration....
current sales results for PEB continue to emulate the sales curve of nmp22...... this gives weight to the fact that just having a better product does not necessarily mean more sales.
Also it needs to be considered that there are at least 4 bladder cancer bio marker test that have now partnered up with giant healthcare JV partners to help push their products into the market.

One has to wonder if PEB product is so good/superior why did they get turned away from large pharmaceutical companies that are actively in the market buying marketable healthcare products.
More directly why are other bio marker products finding it easy to partner up with the big boys and PEB is being left out in the cold.
It is not from choice that PEB went on a lone path as they have openly admitted that they were turned away from the big boys.
Honestly the investment alarm bells should be ringing.

I suppose your first thought could be an elaboration on the ''Is the product enough''? category -- cheers.

second thought was touched on

I suppose another consideration would be whether PEB is an attractive target for a buy out,and whether this would benefit shareholders. (which is another whole area of debate)

[MAC]

Despite contrary belief by some, large or small companies and corporations don’t make large investments just for the hell of it.

Those of us who have prepared and presented board proposals know that well, especially at question time, so heres a proposal for a would be entrant to the market;

Mr Chairman, we’ve just spent $20M in the lab working up a bladder cancer diagnostic test, we think it’s great, it’s got 89% T1 sensitivity, it’s not as good as cytology and there’s already a company that can do 100% in the market with Cxbladder, wow those guys are good and they’re three years ahead, but we’ve had fun strutting about in the lab and in the media too, now we want $60M more to commercialise it, and our mate Moosie thinks we should do it just for ****s and giggles, what do ya reckon Mr Chairman ?

The medical sector is very large and expanding and there are a lot’s of opportunities out there, companies invest their cash where they have the best likelihood of success, not into a space that is already being occupied by something better.

When it comes to the crunch, those with inferior products waiver when it comes to shaky hands committing large sums of money, particularly so when they can invest that cash elsewhere with a better product.

It is hard to beat 100%.

[skid]

companies invest their cash where they have the best likelihood of success, Quote

If this is the case then i am puzzled why Abbot has chosen to throw some serious money at this --someone may have been mistaken in their assumptions

Perhaps we should say - companies invest where they THINK they have the best likely hood of success

It still comes down to ---- product vs product+marketing --- or perhaps I should say- -- product(that markets itself) vs product+marketing

[skid]

It would be interesting to know if the big insurance providers always go for the best products or the less amiable path of a cheaper option either directly or indirectly.

[MAC]

And, then there’s this interesting misnomer about distribution channels and some large pharma corporations being better able to distribute. Conceptually, probably is so for companies selling frozen veges into supermarkets.

There are only 9,000 urologists in the US, and predominantly they are represented by just a handful of regional large urology groups (LUGs) and just a few healthcare management organisations (HMOs).

I’m sure Pacific Edge with their 19 sales regions and 12 strategic sales staff, now they have been hired, will be working with them all right about now in making recognition of this new disruptive technology that is Cxbladder.

And of course many might consider those enviable distribution channels to be the national network providers (NPNs), oh yeah, they’re the ones which Pacific Edge have recently signed up with and have agreed commercial terms and price points with.

It’s a five year plan to achieve a 10% market share, they are two years ahead of any real possible competition and although every company needs to be on its toes, adaptable, and pushing ahead, they’re generally doing a pretty fine job in commercialising their Cxbladder test thus far IMO.

[skid]

Is PEB the only outfit the NPNs have agreed commercial terms and price points with?

I keep thinking about that free Sting concert I went to ,compliments of some big pharma co. (with my doctor(PA) friend)-and wondering if the product they were promoting at dinner was the best

[MAC]

It would be interesting to know if the big insurance providers always go for the best products or the less amiable path of a cheaper option either directly or indirectly.

I’m sure they are influenced by what medical professionals demand, what’s best for their patients, and Urologists over time will migrate to the best treatments available, such is the nature of technology adoption within any sector.

Certainly the NPN’s will have negotiated fair and competitive price points with Pacific Edge, and these are the price points that their associated contracted insurers will reimburse at.

But, then there is also the matter of the specific seven value propositions for the HMOs, if a product like Cxbladder comes along, which is better than Cytology and prospectively offers a one third reduction in work up costs, as we have been advised, then that cost reduction will ultimately be pocketed by the insurers.

There is a matter of change and change management within any sector, it’s a five plan, and increasingly the HMOs and insurers will want those commercial reductions in treatment cost, particularly Medicare I think who seen to have a specific drive toward optimising holistic treatment costs for patients from entry to exit.

[skid]

I’m sure they are influenced by what medical professionals demand, what’s best for their patients, and Urologists over time will migrate to the best treatments available, such is the nature of technology adoption within any sector.

Certainly the NPN’s will have negotiated fair and competitive price points with Pacific Edge, and these are the price points that their associated contracted insurers will reimburse at.

But, then there is also the matter of the specific seven value propositions for the HMOs, if a product like Cxbladder comes along, which is better than Cytology and prospectively offers a one third reduction in work up costs, as we have been advised, then that cost reduction will ultimately be pocketed by the insurers.

There is a matter of change and change management within any sector, it’s a five plan, and increasingly the HMOs and insurers will want those commercial reductions in treatment cost, particularly Medicare I think who seen to have a specific drive toward optimising holistic treatment costs for patients from entry to exit.

It may not matter if PEB have negotiated a fair and competitive price--If it is not competitive enough or if some of the players on the short list have other things to offer in the ''package deal'' then it may be better and cheaper for the NPNs to run with another player when all is added up--there are other options ,other than Cytology that would also be a fraction of the work up costs--It doesnt mean it will be fair.
its the kind of thing that if you saw it on 60minutes you would be rather frustrated. But if you have hard earned dosh invested I guess you want to look at all angles.

from an article about Abotts new marketing push

Abbott established a global marketing organization and created the role of chief marketing officer in 2012 in part to recognize the growing importance its corporate identity would play, Mr. Magill said. He said the company plans to spend “tens of millions of dollars” each year on the efforts.

Of course we will know which school of thought is closest to the mark in time--if nothing else -it is an exercise in research

For those who have not given the world of marketing much thought

http://www.practicebuilders.com/blog/uncategorized/the-ultimate-power-of-branding-and-marketing-for-all-industries-including-healthcare/

[MAC]

Thanks Skid for offering the ongoing opportunity for some to clarify, it's often a noisy place this thread but the trolls seem to be mostly away harassing and scaring newbies elsewhere today.

‘Triage’ and ‘prognostic’ test products aside, there are two quite distinct markets for bladder cancer ‘diagnostic’ test products.

The first is for those that are inferior to Cytology.

Those that are inferior will only ever have a capped specific market as an adjunct tool, they are applied by Urologists between patient probing’s, they offer a bit of confirming information, albeit with limited accuracy, and are used just because they are easy and are non-invasive.

It’s a glass ceiling as they can never replace Cytology in part or in full. These products like NMP22, Urovysion and most probably Abbot, as they are dependent on similar gene expressions, fall into this category.

They are not as reliable or dependable as Cytology and are probably priced as such as, Urologists cannot rely on them when lives are at stake, and, the US is a very litigious place to make percentage bets when lives are in ones hands.

Cxbladder clinically outperforms all other tests within this first market, and because it has high sensitivity, 100% for most early stage tumors, it is a much lower litigation risk, and will demand a price point in commensuration of those two reasons.

The second potential market, whereby over time, a five year plan perhaps, Cxbladder may for some or even most applications may replace cytology, no other test in the market or within two to three years of commercialisation offers this prospect.

It is this market that offers the really really big potential commercial gains.

The work that Pacific Edge are doing with Kaiser Permanente as a proving ground, including but not limited to the 2,000 test user programme, as a demonstration to the market, may well be the catalyst for market adoption by many other HMOs. Once one HMO is realising the gains, both clinical and commercial, they will all want it, such is the nature of markets.

And, 2015 is the year when this demonstration work is planned to come to fruition.

[Dentie]

It may not matter if PEB have negotiated a fair and competitive price--If it is not competitive enough or if some of the players on the short list have other things to offer in the ''package deal'' then it may be better and cheaper for the NPNs to run with another player when all is added up--there are other options ,other than Cytology that would also be a fraction of the work up costs--It doesnt mean it will be fair.
its the kind of thing that if you saw it on 60minutes you would be rather frustrated. But if you have hard earned dosh invested I guess you want to look at all angles.

from an article about Abotts new marketing push

Abbott established a global marketing organization and created the role of chief marketing officer in 2012 in part to recognize the growing importance its corporate identity would play, Mr. Magill said. He said the company plans to spend “tens of millions of dollars” each year on the efforts.

Of course we will know which school of thought is closest to the mark in time--if nothing else -it is an exercise in research

For those who have not given the world of marketing much thought

http://www.practicebuilders.com/blog/uncategorized/the-ultimate-power-of-branding-and-marketing-for-all-industries-including-healthcare/

This is startling to read, even though I am aware of the (sometimes unfortunate) power of marketing. It is all about smoke and mirrors and lots of money along the way - such is our capitalist society. With money comes greed and those who are the greediest will do whatever is necessary to get the money - and I mean whatever is necessary....just ask the 1%!! Words like "Sincerity", "honesty" and "integrity" etc are not part of these people's vocabulary.

Generally, he who has the deepest pockets normally comes out on top - even though they may be a total fraud. Although it might be harmless to one's health if one uses an inferior video cassette, iPhone, computer, car or whatever other item there is ..............but if one is sold (or advised to use) an inferior health product - it could literally mean life or death. Again unfortunately, the poor old punter has no option but to trust his professional advisor so it really does become a gamble. How many times to do we see the innocent and trusting punter get fleeced of his hard earned dosh? Daily!!

IMHO, marketing is used to bring products to the attention to the uneducated, un-notified or unwary. In the case of the health sector in general (not just PEB's market!!), I believe these so-called professionals not only have a duty of care to the people who are relying on them, but they have an absolute obligation to educate themselves as to what is the best available product available for their patient - and then they should be using it. In other words, they should not be making their "product usage" decisions based on who might be the better marketer.

As I've said before, I am still invested into PEB because I genuinely believe they have the best product and intentions. Because I have learned the hard way years ago (see above), I have taken my original capital off the table months ago. But I am leaving the rest of the profit on the table in the belief PEB will eventually shine - because of their product suite ... not due to a slicker marketing campaign. As they say ... the cream eventually rises to the top.

[skid]

unfortunately people get inferior health products all the time by insurance providers--sad but true.
You are in an enviable position with profit on the table.

Many are faced with either,lost opportunity, or lost hard earned cash,(or vice versa)which I suppose is the reason for the debate.

As some one pointed out-every one has a different tolerance to risk.

That decision will become easier with time,for those that are prepared to sacrifice some short term gains, for a better insight into how things are going.

For the others,it will show if they have taken the right punt.

[AndyLP]

Hey snap

Do you have some numbers handy for Matritech's NMP22 sales from the early days?
I went through the market releases from '95 on wards. Couldn't find much for earlier than that.

Anyways, looks like it took Matritech till '02 to crack 3.2m in revenue from all sources. (3.2m as double the PEB HY, its also what Edison have)
NMP22 product sales made up around half of that.

Roughly 7 years. Interestingly it seems they had a few dreadful flat and/or backwards years even after getting FDA approval in July of '96.

Reading the boards from back then is pretty funny though. Comments like "See you all on my yacht in 2001!" - dated '97

[MAC]

Well yes all investors have a different strategy and risk tolerance.

I really wish I could identify disruptive science early on like NT001 and Hancock’s do, buying early stage start-up penny stocks sitting back and watching them become dollar stocks, complement’s intended, I haven’t got the scientific background for that, ah well.

One of the challenges for investors in companies like Pacific Edge is that the biotech market is quite closed in terms of information release. One can’t just google for progress or traction like one can with say a retail stock, or follow commodity prices and sector trends like with mining stocks etc.

Establishing traction and progress for a shareholder really all comes down to what information the company releases, the underlying efficacy of their strategic business model and their moat, Pacific Edge have a relatively high moat IMO.

Sentiment will tend to come and go because of that on information flow, so will the SP, but we certainly haven’t yet seen the highs for this company yet by any means, it’s early days.

I bought the five year plan and am a content shareholder watching it roll out, provided they remain competitive, and they are, and provided they more or less work through the commercialisation sequence in a reasonably timely fashion, and they pretty much are, than all is well and good.

Each to their own view, mine is that we are 18 months or thereabouts into that Cxbladder plan and the company and management are entirely on track.

I suspect within that same timeframe we may also see a colorectal, gastric or melanoma strategic plan in place, perhaps adding or even doubling the valuation of the company along the way too.

[skid]

With all respect ,you have stated in the first half of your post,how hard it is to get concrete information and then followed that with a number of assumptions.
I dont think any one knows that we certainly havent seen the highs for this co.--or that the commercialization sequence is being worked through in a timely fashion -or that management are entirely on track.
Thats what the debate is all about --we can all have opinions but thats what they are at this stage.

We know the product is good--but we dont know about the management or commercialization process--we do know that the jury is still out as far as the market goes by the share price.

[skid]

With all respect ,you have stated in the first half of your post,how hard it is to get concrete information and then followed that with a number of assumptions.
I dont think any one knows that we certainly havent seen the highs for this co.--or that the commercialization sequence is being worked through in a timely fashion -or that management are entirely on track.
Thats what the debate is all about --we can all have opinions but thats what they are at this stage.

We know the product is good--but we dont know about the management or commercialization process--we do know that the jury is still out as far as the market goes by the share price.

(ok-im sure it will fluctuate above 74c but the other two assumptions are more of a stretch:)

[MAC]

Well what some may know others may not, and what some may not others may well, and something’s may never make this thread too.

Generally though Pacific Edge are ticking the boxes along the commercialisation timeline nicely as they go I reckon, are they not, and pretty much within a multiyear plan perspective, around about on time also.

Next in the immediate sequence, Cxbladder(triage) launch in the US, CMS policy inclusion, Kaiser Permanente user programme results to be publicised, and later in the year the launch of Cxbladder(prognosis).

And the company do confidently continue to affirm they are on track against their five year goal of achieving $100M in revenues. There are some whom may be cautious about long term goals as I am, hence the need for research and a close following of the company, though some with area 51 post codes may doubt anything.

And, in the background, lots of validation too presently underway with three clinical studies in the US soon to come to a close, adding ever more to the library of bed time reading for urologists and insurance managers everywhere.

Agree about value, 69% upside to Forbar's price target from 74c for those that want it.

Personally, having read the Forbar analysis and report, I think they are overly conservative actually, but I have some reasons for thinking that.

:)

[Snow Leopard]

...Cxbladder clinically outperforms all other tests within this first market, and because it has high sensitivity, 100% for most early stage tumors, it is a much lower litigation risk, and will demand a price point in commensuration of those two reasons....

I was of the impression that most early stage tumors were Ta tumors and the clinical trial results state (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/study-results/) that CxBladder has a sensitivity of 68% for these. [The numbers imply that in the tests about 57% of all the tumors were Ta].

For the remaining 43% (which includes Tis early stage) then the study does state a sensitivity of 100%.

The flip side of this is the low overall specificity of 85%.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

I was of the impression that most early stage tumors were Ta tumors and the clinical trial results state (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/study-results/) that CxBladder has a sensitivity of 68% for these. [The numbers imply that in the tests about 57% of all the tumors were Ta].

For the remaining 43% (which includes Tis early stage) then the study does state a sensitivity of 100%.

The flip side of this is the low overall specificity of 85%.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Hancock's can talk to that better than I ever could, Ta tumors are important, agree with that, and with Cxbladder(detect) having a 68% Ta sensitivity, it is twice as sensitive as Cytology.

But one important thing that we must note is that what we commonly refer to, on this thread anyway, is the Cxbladder(detect) specification only.

The Cxbladder(prognosis) and Cxbladder(health) specs are likely to target other tumor groups, and will have different sensitivities.

And, it is the Cxbladder(triage) test that is the important one for specificity having an NPV spec of 98%, that's pretty much what it's dedicated for.

Overall sensitivity is also a function of how each test product appears to be tuned to specific tumor groups also.

7052

[skid]

Well what some may know others may not, and what some may not others may well, and something’s may never make this thread too.

Generally though Pacific Edge are ticking the boxes along the commercialisation timeline nicely as they go I reckon, are they not, and pretty much within a multiyear plan perspective, around about on time also.

Next in the immediate sequence, Cxbladder(triage) launch in the US, CMS policy inclusion, Kaiser Permanente user programme results to be publicised, and later in the year the launch of Cxbladder(prognosis).

And the company do confidently continue to affirm they are on track against their five year goal of achieving $100M in revenues. There are some whom may be cautious about long term goals as I am, hence the need for research and a close following of the company, though some with area 51 post codes may doubt anything.

And, in the background, lots of validation too presently underway with three clinical studies in the US soon to come to a close, adding ever more to the library of bed time reading for urologists and insurance managers everywhere.

Agree about value, 69% upside to Forbar's price target from 74c for those that want it.

Personally, having read the Forbar analysis and report, I think they are overly conservative actually, but I have some reasons for thinking that.

:)

I think most will agree,that although the management may claim thay are on track with their 5 year plan, In terms of sales, the growth curve that is necessary depends on exponential growth and there is nothing to point towards that yet--It really depends on something really lighting a fire under sales to catapult them.(my idea of commercialization is not only bringing a product to market--but selling it as well)

The Forbar report really doesnt mean much to me--Seriously-do you think they would have predicted a SP of 74c at this stage?(those that fell for that ''those that want it''last time will most likely not be so quick this time around)
There has been some talk of conflict of interest,but that is another issue.

So anyway,we are back to ''The product will sell itself'' vs The product needs an aggressive marketing campaign as well.debate

I believe that some are more or less pushing all of their chips in on the clinical trails not only being CLEARLY successful but the medical world going head over heals in its reaction to it---Others are thinking that is an overeaction (and the market is not so sure atm)

I believe your assumption that since management has invested alot of money (your money)that they must know what they are doing.
That imo is not a given. Investing alot of money does not validate your plan--that is yet to be proven,so we will watch this space.

[skid]

I guess we will just have to wait and see if all those accounts executives are successful in lighting a fire under sales-
It would be interesting to know if they were on salary or commission(or both)
So you are saying that their marketing campaign is through their accounts executives(Who I assume are looking for new accounts)--ok,fair enough
-wouldnt it be great if they just kept us all up to speed.

They ,of course, are not the only co. that make us wait for reports.

[skid]

Hancock's can talk to that better than I ever could, Ta tumors are important, agree with that, and with Cxbladder(detect) having a 68% Ta sensitivity, it is twice as sensitive as Cytology.

But one important thing that we must note is that what we commonly refer to, on this thread anyway, is the Cxbladder(detect) specification only.

The Cxbladder(prognosis) and Cxbladder(health) specs are likely to target other tumor groups, and will have different sensitivities.

And, it is the Cxbladder(triage) test that is the important one for specificity having an NPV spec of 98%, that's pretty much what it's dedicated for.

Overall sensitivity is also a function of how each test product appears to be tuned to specific tumor groups also.

7052

Wouldnt it have been better to have developed a test that was more specific in early stage tumors(57%)than late stage(43%)? Detecting early stage would of course prevent late stage tumors ,if caught and treated. (Im assuming that when a patient goes to the doctor with the first signs of trouble they are most likely in the first stage)?

[MAC]

First and foremost it takes a sales force to actually be hired, and that’s the key thing that some on this thread haven’t recognised in the past. That there are dozens of steps required to commercialise any product, but the sales curve doesn’t start on that timeline until sales staff are actually on board and active.

There are steps before staff are hired like clinical trials, regulatory approvals, and commercial agreements with the network providers. And steps after they are hired, trained and up to speed, like establishing regional bases, initiating contact with LUGs and insurance company management.

And, that’s exactly where Pacific Edge are at this point in time, staff on board and just now active.

One can read their Linkedin profiles to see they are quite experienced in biotech sector sales and marketing actually, and most have prior sales experience with former pharma and biotech companies.

To answer your question, yes the sales staff are hired on a sales based scheme. Pacific Edge had this to say before they were hired within the 2013 capital raising presentation;

“The remuneration structure of Pacific edge’s individual sales force personnel in the US is geared significantly towards performance (sales) based targets”

Couldn’t ask for a better team IMO having read up on them.

[skid]

But the point is,you can have heaps of salesmen if they are not costing you much(in answer to Hancocks about account executives)

In researching on the American Urological Ass. website under urine biomarkers -the last sentence is

Despite their present and future potential, the critical evaluation and comparison of urine-based markers is beyond the scope of the current guideline involving the management of nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer.

Doesnt it just make you livid! :confused:

[MAC]

I’m a long term investor and don’t really care too much what happens with the share price unless I’m planning an entry or an exit, I’m content holding to see through the five year plan, and it would not surprise one bit if they were a $5 before then.

But, for those looking to enter it’s a pretty good time whilst the SP is in a dip and is undervalued against analyst valuations and price targets.

Invested capital is just that, it’s what is required as an input, it’s not the amount of cash invested that determines potential, it’s market analysis and the competitiveness of a product that determines potential.

One can read the Edison report’s for a gauge of the potential market, although I think they are conservative also in places.

But, certainly having a disruptive technology, a first mover advantage with it, the best clinically performing product, no serious competition within two years, the first product ever to outperform Cytology, an operational lab, twelve strategic sales staff just hired, and a very capable and successful CEO to drive it along is a recipe for success.

$100M in revenues in five years can sound like a big goal to us Kiwi’s in our little corner of the world, in the context of a US market of 319M people it’s not really. Biotech sector companies at that level of turnover are generally considered as new entrants to the market.

Now that the sales force is on board, analyst consensus is for revenue growth of 278% to FY15, and for revenue growth of 309% to FY16. And, sure that’s off a low base, but it all starts from here.

And, as you say let’s see, FY15 reporting is in just three months.

[MAC]

And yet there is healthy profitable market that has been in place for 10 years !

Until this new Cxbladder test came along all bladder cancer diagnostic tests were inferior to Cytology, what Pacific Edge have done is to break through that barrier with a new technology.

And that now offers the prospect of much much greater policy adoption from LUGs, HMOs and yes also by the Urological Association over time.

It’s a five year plan, and the first step is to partner and work with one of the large HMOs, which is exactly what Pacific Edge are doing with Kaiser Permanente, they have clinical studies underway with them and also a 2,000 test user programme.

It’s takes an insitu clinical demonstration to drive policy change, and doing so with a large well recognised company like Kaiser Permanente with 109 of their own in-house urologists is a very good move by Pacific Edge.

That change is not required for Pacific Edge to meet their goal, but the shear potential over time if they do is just simply enormous, and they are positioned to take advantage if or when it occurs.

Personally, I think we may very well possibly look back on that five year goal as having been really quite understated.

[Joshuatree]

.
I wish all investors the best with this one but think anyone who treats it any different to any other high risk investment is foolish.
Personally have had enough of the nonsense on this thread and find it rather frustrating that some repetitive posters make out that this stock is a home run.......even when the CEO is recently on record saying it is a speculative stock........don't forget he has sold down a big portion of his holdings.
This should speak louder than the repetitive rose tinted comments you read on here.
Snaps will be taking no further part on this thread.

Agree with you there snap ; its a shame you're not staying around and stamping on those rose tinted glasses; the same ones that spoke in the same repetitive (follow me for home runs)way promoting CRP . easy to be generous with other peoples moneys. Still a lesson to those who like to follow. Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me. I bailed on PEB a good whiles back but hold a very small residual holding as it sure is highly spekky atp.

[skid]

Personally, I think we may very well possibly look back on that five year goal as having been really quite understated. [Quote]

So your happy to agree with Forbar on the positive statements ,but disagree on their more cautious statements(extending to 6 yrs)

OK, noted

I think,though, you may have a habit of counting your chickens before they hatch--Kaiser Permanente is by no means an exclusive partnership at this stage--you will need a few more announcements before that assumption becomes reality--clinical studies-yes---Then they will make a decision on what is best for them.(price is yet to be determined as far as i know)


-It should be noted ,for those who are just joining -that you,Mac-were calling this share ''undervalued'' way back when it was at its High @ $1.70---doesnt mean you are wrong this time around,but..

[Moosie]

MAC, why do you have $5 as a price target in 5 years? Assuming that and current shares on offer (ie no more dilution) that gives the company an MCap of $1.5B (NZD) with revenue of $125M (NZD using current fx rate) and a PS ratio of about 12.

Do you therefore think PEB will still be growing at p.a. rate of 130%+ even at those lofty levels (130/10-1= PS ratio of 12)?

What are your margin assumptions as well for $100M (USD revenue)? EPS? I want to see what PE ratio you are giving PEB at that stage.

[MAC]

Well yes there is the prospect of a commercial agreement with Kaiser Permanente, and David Darling told us on the HY conference call that they didn’t yet know what form of agreement it would take. It’s the first one of its kind I guess and both parties will need to feel that out.

However my impression and understanding Skid is that the big benefit from the work they are mutually doing together, and the prospective outcome too, is the demonstration it will provide to the sector.

Those 109 urologists are foremost healthcare people and they live to find better treatments for the patients they sit with day in day out and have empathy with. I’m sure the patients tell them quite regularly that they don’t really enjoy being probed every three months too.

And for the two companies they may each take something out of it commercially.

Kaiser Permanente may well get to unburden their clinical staff, probing people costs money but is also time consuming for the professionals involved, the urologists, the nurses the facility support staff, not to mention the burden on booking surgical rooms. There is also an increasing shortage of Urologists in the US. This is where the one third reduction in work up costs comes in.

They also get to recognise potentially the new applications of Cxbladder that have not been possible until now. For example, it’s not possible to probe and look for upper tract cancers, and Cxbladder is the first diagnostic product to come along to actually offer reliable diagnosis of them. There are a lot of such value propositions that we could chat about all day.

And of course in addition to all that they may get the opportunity to back away from invasive probing which carries a litigation risk each time.

[skid]

Well yes there is the prospect of a commercial agreement with Kaiser Permanente, and David Darling told us on the HY conference call that they didn’t yet know what form of agreement it would take. It’s the first one of its kind I guess and both parties will need to feel that out.

However my impression and understanding Skid is that the big benefit from the work they are mutually doing together, and the prospective outcome too, is the demonstration it will provide to the sector.

Those 109 urologists are foremost healthcare people and they live to find better treatments for the patients they sit with day in day out and have empathy with. I’m sure the patients tell them quite regularly that they don’t really enjoy being probed every three months too.

And for the two companies they may each take something out of it commercially.

Kaiser Permanente may well get to unburden their clinical staff, probing people costs money but is also time consuming for the professionals involved, the urologists, the nurses the facility support staff, not to mention the burden on booking surgical rooms. There is also an increasing shortage of Urologists in the US. This is where the one third reduction in work up costs comes in.

They also get to recognise potentially the new applications of Cxbladder that have not been possible until now. For example, it’s not possible to probe and look for upper tract cancers, and Cxbladder is the first diagnostic product to come along to actually offer reliable diagnosis of them. There are a lot of such value propositions that we could chat about all day.

And of course in addition to all that they may get the opportunity to back away from invasive probing which carries a litigation risk each time.


Your putting words in kaiser Permanentes mouth

Do you believe they always have the best intentions?

http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/17540/nuhw_kaiser_strike

http://khon2.com/2015/02/02/kaiser-permanente-local-5-union-workers-begin-6-day-strike-2/

[Dentie]

And yet there is healthy profitable market that has been in place for 10 years !

Until this new Cxbladder test came along all bladder cancer diagnostic tests were inferior to Cytology, what Pacific Edge have done is to break through that barrier with a new technology.

And that now offers the prospect of much much greater policy adoption from LUGs, HMOs and yes also by the Urological Association over time.

It’s a five year plan, and the first step is to partner and work with one of the large HMOs, which is exactly what Pacific Edge are doing with Kaiser Permanente, they have clinical studies underway with them and also a 2,000 test user programme.

It’s takes an insitu clinical demonstration to drive policy change, and doing so with a large well recognised company like Kaiser Permanente with 109 of their own in-house urologists is a very good move by Pacific Edge.

That change is not required for Pacific Edge to meet their goal, but the shear potential over time if they do is just simply enormous, and they are positioned to take advantage if or when it occurs.

Personally, I think we may very well possibly look back on that five year goal as having been really quite understated.

Hi MAC,

You ripped the above words out of my mouth - nice one!! However, it has been apparent to me for some time, this is a waste of time and effort on here. You, Miner and Hancocks in particular have done a sterling job in presenting the facts - which I for one thank you all for and have learnt so much about the technical side of things. I have been INVESTED in PEB since 2008/09 with Hancocks and yourself being INVESTED a lot longer than that.

It has dawned on me that "the INVESTED Bull's" have been unwittingly sucked into trying to justify why we are involved in PEB .... by "those others" (who will remain nameless) but are all so glaring obvious by their comments. All that has been achieved by the likes of Hancocks, yourself and Miner etc is the "filling in of the gaps" for "those others".

I have never believed PEB is a trading stock to date - and have stated as much more than once on here (it is still not yet one, IMVHO!!). I was immediately attacked by "those others" - who stated "I have been happily trading PEB ... blah, blah, blah". I believe it was these "traders" who pushed the SP up to those silly heights - including "those others" - and then the more experienced of "those others" eventually sold their shareholding - until they had none. Good luck to them.

The point of this particular tirade is this....

"Those others" have never been INVESTED in PEB. They have clearly seen PEB as one of those perfect "speculative" growth stocks. They have researched what the company does, its market, its future, its undervalued SP etc etc etc and come in - made as much as they could before the market even looks like maturing and then taken all their money off the table. They are opportunistic TRADERS (for want of a more appropriate word), who scalp and manipulate (etc) their way to grabbing as much $$$ as quickly as possible. PEB is just a vehicle for them to do this. They no doubt do the same play with other firms who are just trying to develop their business model.

Once (and ONLY after) they have got ALL their dosh off the table, "those others" then start with their smug, sanctimonious and know-it-all comments about how silly the rest of us are and how PEB (in this case) is not going to succeed because of a lack of marketing and selling & this and that etc. I just feel sorry for those less experienced INVESTORS & other newbies (the fodder of "those others") who are venturing into equities as an alternative investing platform to bank deposits.

I have read this thread along the way ... and I've never seen the recent comments by "those others", while they still had their money on the table. Words like "Legend", "Guru" and the like are inconsistent with the comments from "those others". In fact they are a joke ... and can be very misleading.

Meanwhile...PEB is just going on with developing their business model. Whether their FY15 revenue is $100,000...$500,000...$3m...or $10m - I'll still be there as a true INVESTOR and what will be will be.

[MAC]

Hi Moosie, thought you were banned, welcome back to you then.

My present base case valuation for Cxbladder(detect) is $1.85, that pretty much is mid-range of Edison’s sensitivity analysis now they’ve provided their report too. I’m comfortable with that on the basis I made back in August last year, nothing has substantially altered since then and I haven’t yet valued the other Cxbladder products without further information.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd&p=499894&highlight=valuation+%241.85#post499894

But to answer your question, it’s a very low capital company once the labs are built and the assay software has been developed, and they are well through that stage. COGS really now just comprises of lab and sales staff and associated overhead. Pacific Edge, and Forbar & Edison, tell us that gross margins are circa 80%.

There is a lot of upside potential beyond all that though, within that five year plan we may also quite possibly see the gastric, melanoma and colorectal products coming to the market each with their own gross margins.

And as per discussion today, if Pacific Edge over time can make the RNA diagnostic tests a little more mainstream, and there is a strong Obamacare tailwind for that change, then they may be looking at a goal much larger than just 10%, could be 20 or 30%, who really knows at this time.

But as I say, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they are a $5 stock within a few years if even just some of that potential comes into play.

It’s way too early to look at PE ratio’s, that’s more a matter for cyclical stocks, and with the pipeline Pacific Edge have they may very well be remain a growth company for several years yet. The PE ratio in five years will depend on how many products they have in the market at that time.

[Moosie]

Hi MAC,

You ripped the above words out of my mouth - nice one!! However, it has been apparent to me for some time, this is a waste of time and effort on here. You, Miner and Hancocks in particular have done a sterling job in presenting the facts - which I for one thank you all for and have learnt so much about the technical side of things. I have been INVESTED in PEB since 2008/09 with Hancocks and yourself being INVESTED a lot longer than that.

It has dawned on me that "the INVESTED Bull's" have been unwittingly sucked into trying to justify why we are involved in PEB .... by "those others" (who will remain nameless) but are all so glaring obvious by their comments. All that has been achieved by the likes of Hancocks, yourself and Miner etc is the "filling in of the gaps" for "those others".

I have never believed PEB is a trading stock to date - and have stated as much more than once on here (it is still not yet one, IMVHO!!). I was immediately attacked by "those others" - who stated "I have been happily trading PEB ... blah, blah, blah". I believe it was these "traders" who pushed the SP up to those silly heights - including "those others" - and then the more experienced of "those others" eventually sold their shareholding - until they had none. Good luck to them.

The point of this particular tirade is this....

"Those others" have never been INVESTED in PEB. They have clearly seen PEB as one of those perfect "speculative" growth stocks. They have researched what the company does, its market, its future, its undervalued SP etc etc etc and come in - made as much as they could before the market even looks like maturing and then taken all their money off the table. They are opportunistic TRADERS (for want of a more appropriate word), who scalp and manipulate (etc) their way to grabbing as much $$$ as quickly as possible. PEB is just a vehicle for them to do this. They no doubt do the same play with other firms who are just trying to develop their business model.

Once (and ONLY after) they have got ALL their dosh off the table, "those others" then start with their smug, sanctimonious and know-it-all comments about how silly the rest of us are and how PEB (in this case) is not going to succeed because of a lack of marketing and selling & this and that etc. I just feel sorry for those less experienced INVESTORS & other newbies (the fodder of "those others") who are venturing into equities as an alternative investing platform to bank deposits.

I have read this thread along the way ... and I've never seen the recent comments by "those others", while they still had their money on the table. Words like "Legend", "Guru" and the like are inconsistent with the comments from "those others". In fact they are a joke ... and can be very misleading.

Meanwhile...PEB is just going on with developing their business model. Whether their FY15 revenue is $100,000...$500,000...$3m...or $10m - I'll still be there as a true INVESTOR and what will be will be.

YOU took the words right of my mouth! Be that as it may, there is no way you could not have classified this as a trading stock over late 2013/early 2014 when traders made a bucket load going up and down the curve on massive volume. The entire stock was played very nicely to a double-top conclusion as well on thin air, a hallmark of "traders be trading" and "castles in the air". DD say the irrationality of it all as well by selling up in a timely manner!

Point is, you may hate us and we may be irrational, be we, more than often, make up the noise that makes you "investors" money (that is, if you don't get too greedy and actually hit the sell button when you realise irrationality is reigning supreme!)

[Moosie]

MAC, can you humour me wuth gross margins, EPS and PE ratio regardless? I'd like to see the metrics behind your statement.

Nothing more, nothing less. I'm all for clear and concise opinions backed up with stats :D

[Dentie]

YOU took the words right of my mouth! Be that as it may, there is no way you could not have classified this as a trading stock over late 2013/early 2014 when traders made a bucket load going up and down the curve on massive volume. The entire stock was played very nicely to a double-top conclusion as well on thin air, a hallmark of "traders be trading" and "castles in the air". DD say the irrationality of it all as well by selling up in a timely manner!

Point is, you may hate us and we may be irrational, be we, more than often, make up the noise that makes you "investors" money (that is, if you don't get too greedy and actually hit the sell button when you realise irrationality is reigning supreme!)

You seemed to have completely missed my point Moosie (& welcome back BTW).

I personally have never seen PEB as a trading stock - ever! Yes - there is no doubt you traders caused the 2013/14 surge by plaguing PEB's stock with your ridiculous trading activity - but that does not make it a trading stock. Your (type's) activity simply makes this innocent, fledgling & well meaning business nothing more than a financial whorehouse (perhaps a casino is a better word?) and your above comments do nothing but validate my comments.

Whether it is fundamentally right or not doesn't matter, your "type's" couldn't give a toss about a company's business and what they might be trying to achieve in the world...for you lot, it is all about making "a bucket load" of money - whatever way you can and as quickly as you can. IMHO, traders (or rampant speculators) can be blamed for wrecking not only one company - but potentially a whole stock exchange with ridiculous SP valuations...all based on greed.

It worries me that we have "irrational" (your word) speculators playing around in the financial markets - for obvious reasons. For clarity - just look at the "trader" from Milford who the FMA are investigating ...how many more are there out there?

Off topic a bit...but did you know "irrational" traders (or speculators) control 97% of the world currency markets? Think how they might be able to "manipulate" a country's currency...or their stock exchanges!

[Dentie]

MAC, can you humour me wuth gross margins, EPS and PE ratio regardless? I'd like to see the metrics behind your statement.

Nothing more, nothing less. I'm all for clear and concise opinions backed up with stats :D

Like you were when your loyal followers followed you to SNK ...oh, then Balance came along and ruined it all!

[MAC]

I would love too, but I think you may find that no analyst would speculate five years ahead, it really does come down to the product mix at that time, and no one yet has that advice.

One must be quite conservative and only confidently value what can be valued from known information, that's why I've only valued Cxbladder(detect) at this time. When we have more information on the other Cxbladder products I'll value and add those on US launch day just like other investors and analysts do.

Cxbladder(triage) and Cxbladder(prognosis) are scheduled to be launched this year in the US. And, downstream it would be a pleasure to add valuations for the pipeline products too if or when they are also launched.

P/S and PE ratios are not recognised as the best measures of growth stock analysis, in fact they are really quite poor, but ok, I'll play hypothetical's, just this once, I'm having a slow weekend with nothing better to do than to post on ST forum, you know.


------------------------------------

Cxbladder(detect) only at FY19 with $100M in revenues and a gross margin of 81% would, conservatively, generate around $50M NPAT, allowing for a little ongoing dilution, an eps of around 0.14

A PE at that time of 35, appropriate for a growth company expanding its Cxbladder products into the market, and also probably concurrently launching pipeline products, would provide for a share price of $5.

I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see that occur even before five years actually, but I’m content with my FY15 valuation at $1.85 for now, this year.

That’s just Cxbladder(detect) only NPAT and eps at FY19, you would also need to add the NPAT from whatever other products they have in the market place at that time to get any meaningful PE assessment.

[skid]

You seemed to have completely missed my point Moosie (& welcome back BTW).

I personally have never seen PEB as a trading stock - ever! Yes - there is no doubt you traders caused the 2013/14 surge by plaguing PEB's stock with your ridiculous trading activity - but that does not make it a trading stock. Your (type's) activity simply makes this innocent, fledgling & well meaning business nothing more than a financial whorehouse (perhaps a casino is a better word?) and your above comments do nothing but validate my comments.

Whether it is fundamentally right or not doesn't matter, your "type's" couldn't give a toss about a company's business and what they might be trying to achieve in the world...for you lot, it is all about making "a bucket load" of money - whatever way you can and as quickly as you can. IMHO, traders (or rampant speculators) can be blamed for wrecking not only one company - but potentially a whole stock exchange with ridiculous SP valuations...all based on greed.

It worries me that we have "irrational" (your word) speculators playing around in the financial markets - for obvious reasons. For clarity - just look at the "trader" from Milford who the FMA are investigating ...how many more are there out there?

Off topic a bit...but did you know "irrational" traders (or speculators) control 97% of the world currency markets? Think how they might be able to "manipulate" a country's currency...or their stock exchanges!



Is this the same Denty who has taken his capital off the table and is now riding on his ''profits'' (because of those others who got carried away and overvalued the company all the way up to $1.70) all those horrible 'traders'' who caused all that profit?---Sad

[skid]

I would love too, but I think you may find that no analyst would speculate five years ahead, it really does come down to the product mix at that time, and no one yet has that advice.

One must be quite conservative and only confidently value what can be valued from known information, that's why I've only valued Cxbladder(detect) at this time. When we have more information on the other Cxbladder products I'll value and add those on US launch day just like other investors and analysts do.

Cxbladder(triage) and Cxbladder(prognosis) are scheduled to be launched this year in the US. And, downstream it would be a pleasure to add valuations for the pipeline products too if or when they are also launched.

P/S and PE ratios are not recognised as the best measures of growth stock analysis, in fact they are really quite poor, but ok, I'll play hypothetical's, just this once, I'm having a slow weekend with nothing better to do than to post on ST forum, you know.


------------------------------------

Cxbladder(detect) only at FY19 with $100M in revenues and a gross margin of 81% would, conservatively, generate around $50M NPAT, allowing for a little ongoing dilution, an eps of around 0.14

A PE at that time of 35, appropriate for a growth company expanding its Cxbladder products into the market, and also probably concurrently launching pipeline products, would provide for a share price of $5.

I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see that occur even before five years actually, but I’m content with my FY15 valuation at $1.85 for now, this year.

That’s just Cxbladder(detect) only NPAT and eps at FY19, you would also need to add the NPAT from whatever other products they have in the market place at that time to get any meaningful PE assessment.

Noted...Ive noticed that you dont put any disclaimer on you predictions,like ''this is not to be taken as investment advice''--What will you say to those new investors if you drastically miss your mark?
Actually,what do you have to say to those who invested @$1.70 after reading your posts?

I think we should be more careful with that sort of thing...

[MAC]

Thanks Dentie, I don’t mind a debate when the threads quiet and when I’ve time, pretty much house bound this weekend for reasons I won’t bore you with.

The interesting thing about growth stocks on this forum is that they attract a lot of opinion because people look at the risk and reward and like to debate both, but very often they just look at the risk in isolation.

A minority are mindless trolls, one or two seem to be one blue smiley away from a strait jacket, a few are just short termer's trying fruitlessly to make a quick buck by scaring newbies into selling their hard earned investments. But, most everyone knows whom they are and largely have long since devalued their opinions I think.

I don’t mind debating with bulls, or bears like Skid, respectfully hope that’s ok with you Skid being a bear, there is sometimes a fair debate to be had, amongst all the immature noise.

It all helps folk, present company included, to reconcile their investments or prospective investments and form their ‘each to their own’ outcomes based on their own investment strategy and risk/reward tolerance generally in life.

[MAC]

I see occasionally some folk do put a disclaimer up, but oh I think really it’s reasonably implicit that no one should take investment advice from what one reads on the internet.

It’s good to share thoughts and views though, analysis too at times, and snippets that come from correspondence with the company and other organisations within their market (offline).

I’ve been researching Pacific Edge for only three years actually and it can be a tough one, there’s not really a lot to be googled.

It does seem that Pacific Edge have done the right thing by shareholders in engaging Edison and in working with Forbar openly too I think, even though I don’t fully agree with some of their conservatism.

That’s where folk should go in the first instance if they are new to Pacific Edge.

[skid]

Im not a total bear,Mac--but yes atm Im cautious. I do however try to stay reasonably civil and question things in a hopefully reasonable manner.
You guys may have noticed that i dont rule out the fact that PEB may be successful in the future--I could go on about the SP crashing down back to .65,but that wouldnt be constructive and probably not that likely.

I dont support the ''in at all cost'' frame of mind--I found that ,for me it worked better to sell,if things were looking scarey(self preservation)with the frame of mind that one can always buy back in latter --not so much about making money,but more not losing it.

Now its really a matter of interest only as im invested elsewhere--but if it did go sub 70 Id have to consider.

I believe the flow of information in the last few days is food for thought--You pick out the bits that seem right for you.

None of it though should be taken as gospel investment advice...cheers

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Traders need volatility. Has been a pretty volatile stock over the years. Hmm, must be a good trading stock eh?

[skid]

Traders need volatility. Has been a pretty volatile stock over the years. Hmm, must be a good trading stock eh?


Ha Ha..Hold your fire!.....:)

Meanwhile im not saying anything one way or the other but there is a slight possibility this lot could be brutal when it comes to bargaining a deal if it comes to it

just potentially a small piece to the puzzle
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/28459-kaiser-infermanente-nation-s-largest-mental-health-worker-strike-takes-aim-at-woeful-care

(I was actually trying to find out about their clinical trials when this came along)

[Dentie]

Is this the same Denty who has taken his capital off the table and is now riding on his ''profits'' (because of those others who got carried away and overvalued the company all the way up to $1.70) all those horrible 'traders'' who caused all that profit?---Sad

Dear oh dear ....

Firstly, "Investors" are quite capable of creating a profit too Skid. The difference is, it is created by using the good fundamentals of the business - not the fresh air type created by greed or hype. Yes, it may be slower, but it is a good genuine and sustainable profit that creates confidence in the business and hence - a stable supply and demand curve.

Secondly, I have learned my lessons and only taken my capital off the table and left the profit INVESTED in the PEB business (which is where it will stay). You see...this is the critical difference Skid...the TRADERS have taken everything off the table (capital & maybe a bit of profit ... or just some $$$...after broker's commission & tax of course!!). Greed versus investment.

As you say ... each to their own.