PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Makes me wonder when long term holders start crying out about traders and how they effect real prices. A real long termer doesn't care about short term movements created by traders, it doesn't effect them in the slightest, apart from providing liquidity.

Your mate Benjy had a good quote in this respect, which I'm sure everyone knows.

There's more than one way to skin a cat, with varying levels of success from different people. Don't hate, we can all make a bob or two.

[Baa_Baa]

I was going to post a chart but just about everything on it is bearish; descending triangle; under the big MA's and my fav 14day EMA; declining volume; money flow declining; RSI sideways under 50; MACD also sideways @ .018; DMI pos declining and neg rising. The only glimmer of hope I can find is Friday's Doji, following Thursday's down. If Monday bounces it may be a Morning Star or Abandoned Baby (a three-day candle pattern with higher open than Friday's close, and a higher close than Thursday's high) - both bullish reversal signals. A contrarian or true believer may sense a buying opportunity. Everyone else is probably just as confused as they will be reading this analysis. ;)

[winner69]

I was going to post a chart but just about everything on it is bearish; descending triangle; under the big MA's and my fav 14day EMA; declining volume; money flow declining; RSI sideways under 50; MACD also sideways @ .018; DMI pos declining and neg rising. The only glimmer of hope I can find is Friday's Doji, following Thursday's down. If Monday bounces it may be a Morning Star or Abandoned Baby (a three-day candle pattern with higher open than Friday's close, and a higher close than Thursday's high) - both bullish reversal signals. A contrarian or true believer may sense a buying opportunity. Everyone else is probably just as confused as they will be reading this analysis. ;)

I once felt really bad for that Abandoned Baby and moosie said they are bad bad news

From Investopedia ....question is the dominant PEB trend up for abandoned babies to be relevant? No not really so hopefully the baby is safely with its caregivers for a while longer

INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'BEARISH ABANDONED BABY'
The bearish abandoned baby is a rare but reliable candlestick pattern that is useful in determining changes to a dominant uptrend. The accuracy of the reversal signal is greatly improved when it is used in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as the MACD and RSI, to confirm the reversal.

[Dentie]

Makes me wonder when long term holders start crying out about traders and how they effect real prices. A real long termer doesn't care about short term movements created by traders, it doesn't effect them in the slightest, apart from providing liquidity.

Your mate Benjy had a good quote in this respect, which I'm sure everyone knows.

There's more than one way to skin a cat, with varying levels of success from different people. Don't hate, we can all make a bob or two.

Johnny, my point is...real long termers care about the business they are INVESTED in, hence their interest in the fundamentals ... what makes that business tick and what's behind it etc. Traders on the other hand couldn't care less about "the business". For them the word "business" means nothing. It is just another name for "an opportunity" to make some quick money off other punters playing the same hopeful game. Another example would be the bundling up and selling off of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages (securitisation) in the US that started the GFC. Trading off fresh air ...... one mug to another mug... trusting the next mug is a bigger mug ...until........!!!

I don't "hate" traders Johnny ... after all it is legal. I just don't see the value of them against the greater picture. It is simply about them and their conquests at other's expense. Trouble is, a lot of the time it is the poor old business who ends up paying the biggest expense of all (& their INVESTORS of course).

[Baa_Baa]

Well with due respect W69, if you are reverting to literature, check this http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestic k_bullish_reversal_patterns as I was referring to the POTENTIAL however slim that this a is Bullish reversal signal. Monday's price action will confirm or otherwise.


I once felt really bad for that Abandoned Baby and moosie said they are bad bad news

From Investopedia ....question is the dominant PEB trend up for abandoned babies to be relevant? No not really so hopefully the baby is safely with its caregivers for a while longer

INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'BEARISH ABANDONED BABY'
The bearish abandoned baby is a rare but reliable candlestick pattern that is useful in determining changes to a dominant uptrend. The accuracy of the reversal signal is greatly improved when it is used in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as the MACD and RSI, to confirm the reversal.

[winner69]

Well with due respect W69, if you are reverting to literature, check this http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestic k_bullish_reversal_patterns as I was referring to the POTENTIAL however slim that this a is Bullish reversal signal. Monday's price action will confirm or otherwise.

YES there are both bullish and bearish abandoned babies

And if your bullish abandoned baby eventuates on Monday then the guru Mr Bulkowski (Mr P referred to him a lot) says there is 70% chance of a trend reversal but also noted that the upward price trend after the bullish abandoned baby does not last long

Not really into candles myself but interesting none the less

[MAC]

I’ve received this recently from a reliable source;

“We currently submit claims and are being paid by these insurance companies under a molecular test CPT code, which gives us the opportunity to be reimbursed on a case by case basis. Using this strategy, we are receiving reimbursement from all the major insurers including Cigna, Aetna, United, BCBS, Humana, Medicare Advantage plans, and many of the 2nd tier insurers. While the process is long and complex, we are pleased that our reimbursement is going to plan. Once we secure coverage in the public sector (Medicare), we will look to engage insurers Cigna and other major commercial insurers for formal inclusion in the policy as well as negotiate being a contracted provider if we feel it’s in our best interest moving forward”

Nice to see the strategic sales team, recently hired, doing as they do.

Cigna, Aetna, United, BCBS and Humana together provide insurance cover for 215M Americans, another 40M or so are covered by Medicare Advantage plans.

All the doors are now open for Pacific Edge for the sales team to ramp up into.

Would be satisfying to see a step up in revenues, and with quite a helpful US exchange rate too :)

[Dentie]

I’ve received this recently from a reliable source;

“We currently submit claims and are being paid by these insurance companies under a molecular test CPT code, which gives us the opportunity to be reimbursed on a case by case basis. Using this strategy, we are receiving reimbursement from all the major insurers including Cigna, Aetna, United, BCBS, Humana, Medicare Advantage plans, and many of the 2nd tier insurers. While the process is long and complex, we are pleased that our reimbursement is going to plan. Once we secure coverage in the public sector (Medicare), we will look to engage insurers Cigna and other major commercial insurers for formal inclusion in the policy as well as negotiate being a contracted provider if we feel it’s in our best interest moving forward”

Nice to see the strategic sales team, recently hired, doing as they do.

Cigna, Aetna, United, BCBS and Humana together provide insurance cover for 215M Americans, another 40M or so are covered by Medicare Advantage plans.

All the doors are now open for Pacific Edge for the sales team to ramp up into.

Would be satisfying to see a step up in revenues, and with quite a helpful US exchange rate too :)

Morning MAC...

I note your source is a "reliable" one. Does this mean there might be an increase in sales revenue since the HY15 report?

If so, I guess it maybe appears to sound just a wee bit of a chance of being positive...and they are even brash enough to state they are pleased it "is going to plan". But what do they know eh?

[skid]

Johnny, my point is...real long termers care about the business they are INVESTED in, hence their interest in the fundamentals ... what makes that business tick and what's behind it etc. Traders on the other hand couldn't care less about "the business". For them the word "business" means nothing. It is just another name for "an opportunity" to make some quick money off other punters playing the same hopeful game. Another example would be the bundling up and selling off of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages (securitisation) in the US that started the GFC. Trading off fresh air ...... one mug to another mug... trusting the next mug is a bigger mug ...until........!!!

I don't "hate" traders Johnny ... after all it is legal. I just don't see the value of them against the greater picture. It is simply about them and their conquests at other's expense. Trouble is, a lot of the time it is the poor old business who ends up paying the biggest expense of all (& their INVESTORS of course).

i dont think you have really thought that idea through Dents--It is not a black and white stuation--what would you say to those investors who left all their money in because they care about the company--They might say you abandoned it--you took your money and ran(leaving in the measly profit you made out of others over valuing this stock(at $1.70--$1.50-1.40-etc etc.90c) The market considers it over valued--(if you disagree perhaps you would like to consider an off market transfer @ any of those prices)
Some of these investors have decided that the company had not earned their support(dosh) ,so they sold--to me ,thats fair enough.After all its you money--if the company does not ,in your view,earn your confidence then it is fair game to sell and look for another investment--If the SP goes up-thats your punishment--if it falls-you have lived to fight another day.

This is not a charity--You will either gain or lose---trying to attach a sugar sweet morality is not realistic for a company that has not come up with the goods yet--blind faith does not get it---If your still in(well..your profits-ie.-other peoples money-if you want to use your line of thinking)then it should be because you think the fundamentals are sound-not blind faith.

Im the other side of the coin to the ''stay in at all costs''scenario---I believe if a share is not performing sell,until it does perform-then rejoin for the uptrend --You will lose some of the initial gains(the ''gamblers'' money) but you will be on safer (more proven)ground---that would have saved some investors alot of money and stress(that comes up in different forms)
This was particularly relevant after the first sales announcement--and then when things started slipping after the second.

Right now is anyone guess --pretty hard to suggest buying or selling--perhaps just monitor--but leave emotions out of it if you want to stay happy.

[MAC]

Morning MAC...

I note your source is a "reliable" one. Does this mean there might be an increase in sales revenue since the HY15 report?

If so, I guess it maybe appears to sound just a wee bit of a chance of being positive...and they are even brash enough to state they are pleased it "is going to plan". But what do they know eh?

It's all going to the plan they provided us, the insurers are on board, the NPN's have all been signed up and it's now beyond the seven month duration that Pacific Edge told us that they would start to reap sales from.

Just that alone is a significant boost forward from this time last year, and yep we should see that reflected in revenues at reporting in 3 month’s time.

It’s onward and upward from this point in the plan, analyst price targets $1.25 and beyond.

[skid]

Morning MAC...

I note your source is a "reliable" one. Does this mean there might be an increase in sales revenue since the HY15 report?

If so, I guess it maybe appears to sound just a wee bit of a chance of being positive...and they are even brash enough to state they are pleased it "is going to plan". But what do they know eh?

Thats not the right question--They know what they know---Its what they want you to know that is more relevant

[psychic]

Well, I'm very happy to read it. Thanks MAC - great stuff. The Insurance Carrier uptake was something that I had trouble understanding. There is obviously a well beaten path to follow and this to me confirms that they are quietly knocking the b's off.
Cheers

[Dentie]

--what would you say to those investors who left all their money in because they care about the company--They might say you abandoned it--you took your money and ran(leaving in the measly profit you made out of others over valuing this stock(at $1.70--$1.50-1.40-etc etc.90c)

...."measly" profit ...? I'm very happy with what is left on the table Skid - which I don't think is "measly" either (not in anyone's terms!).

....I have no idea what other investors might say - and frankly, how other investors manage their investments is entirely their business.

[skid]

...."measly" profit ...? I'm very happy with what is left on the table Skid - which I don't think is "measly" either (not in anyone's terms!).

....I have no idea what other investors might say - and frankly, how other investors manage their investments is entirely their business.

Fine-Then dont put emotive posts about other investors with value judgements...(like yesterdays)...just sayin

[skid]

Well with due respect W69, if you are reverting to literature, check this http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestic k_bullish_reversal_patterns as I was referring to the POTENTIAL however slim that this a is Bullish reversal signal. Monday's price action will confirm or otherwise.

Hey Baa Baa--Out of interest what would todays price action have to do to confirm or deny?

[Dentie]

Fine-Then dont put emotive posts about other investors with value judgements...(like yesterdays)...just sayin

As I have been reminded of in the past - everyone is entitled to their opinions Skid. I simply stated my opinion on what value, I felt, traders (both equity and currency) contribute to the markets they operate in. The evidence is there for all to see ... that is, they distort the real FINANCIAL picture and unfortunately - some innocent participants who are genuinely in the game lose their skin in the process.

It takes two sides of a story to create a forum (or debate?) - which is how it should be ... but you can't have it both ways.

[skid]

As I have been reminded of in the past - everyone is entitled to their opinions Skid. I simply stated my opinion on what value, I felt, traders (both equity and currency) contribute to the markets they operate in. The evidence is there for all to see ... that is, they distort the real FINANCIAL picture and unfortunately - some innocent participants who are genuinely in the game lose their skin in the process.

It takes two sides of a story to create a forum (or debate?) - which is how it should be ... but you can't have it both ways.

Exactly my point --You seemed to have contradicted yourself--Which post should we take on board --perhaps yesterdays was a bit over the top?(In the heat of the moment and all that) should we just disregard that one--if todays post is an amendment,then fair enough.

I stand corrected on my earlier post---BIG Profit

[MAC]

Yes thanks MAC, I agree with Psychic, I also have had communications along these lines with Pacific Edge - but still very nice to see in print.

Yeah, I was a little curios as to why they haven't announced all that to the market yet, or perhaps they will, but I guess just doing what they said they would actually do isn't all that price sensitive.

Previously though, I’d thought that getting the insurers on board would be the big commercial roll out hurdle, but that’s pretty much dust now.

Sales growth from here, all those new sales folk working with the LUGs, converting all those new mini user programmes they told us about into sales, spreading the word at the conferences, working closely with the HMOs, cranking the handle.

[Schrodinger]

It's all going to the plan they provided us, the insurers are on board, the NPN's have all been signed up and it's now beyond the seven month duration that Pacific Edge told us that they would start to reap sales from.

Just that alone is a significant boost forward from this time last year, and yep we should see that reflected in revenues at reporting in 3 month’s time.

It’s onward and upward from this point in the plan, analyst price targets $1.25 and beyond.

The analyst price target is meaningless.

[Schrodinger]

Hi Schrodinger; is that applicable to all threads on Share Trader, or primarily just to the Pacific Edge thread?

Depends on how you view the investment analysis and early stage companies. Not picking on PEB as I have read the VML and that is meaningless too. Just observing that if you buy in @$0.75 and expect this to rise to at least $1.25 based on flimsy research then good luck to you. Pure speculation and to be kind the analyst does not understand how international markets work.

What should be used is yourself, MAC and the others who have commented and then combine that with your knowledge but to blindly trust the research report is silly.

For a more established companies the risks reduce imo (reliable business models) but I use them as a "fill in the gaps" but don't base my decisions on them. If you had access to the private equity/fund managers research that would be higher quality but that is internal. You can observe what they think by what they invest in.

[MAC]

Well certainly the last three SSH’s have been strong BUY’s, all that fund and private equity analysis seems to be upward, well there you go.

Harbour increasing their stake to 7.5%, Superlife increasing their stake to 6%, and SALT entering at 95c and commencing a substantial holding at 5.2%.

Some think sound market analysis, having a disruptive technology, a first mover advantage, no competition within two years, commercial access agreements in place, a sale team on the ground and active, virtually zero capital requirements, and a nice gross margin of 80% as being speculation, each to their own I suppose.

[skid]

Jeez Mac,you sound like a politician--are you sure your not on the payroll?:)

A Billions of dollars multinational company is gearing up to show the true meaning of competition.

What agreement?(to consider?)..and at what price?

zero capital requirements? (we'll just have to wait and see how the cash burn pans out)

[MAC]

Ha, just too much idle time on my hands at present, and I don't mind dispelling the myths and keep it all real, I am a long term shareholder though and a content one, I've no interest in buying or selling at present, I topped up last at the 2013 capital raising, but would though be absolutely buying again now if I wasn't over my diversification limit, rules are rules.

[skid]

Just keeping it honest:) I would imagine you are one of the lucky ones who are still sitting on a nice profit!---I guess atm we are--- ''I want to make money(along with the company)'' vs ''I dont want to lose money'':D

[Crystal Ball]

Dear MOD,

There's an interesting debate going on here and people who disagree are asking Balance for info etc which he can now no longer give. Sure some people need to watch how they say some things but blanket banning people whenever the debate gets a little heated is just frustrating and defeating the purpose of the forum.

If people don't like the way certain members post, let them block the member themselves.

Cheers,

Nextblockedthing
I' m with you NBT, we can all block those that we find offensive and annoying, it is quite useful to read all the pros and cons, even if it does tend to descend into personal attracks from time to time. Eventually the assailant backs off.......and probably re reading their posts later on,realises what a dork they have been!

[MAC]

Just keeping it honest:) I would imagine you are one of the lucky ones who are still sitting on a nice profit!---I guess atm we are--- ''I want to make money(along with the company)'' vs ''I dont want to lose money'':D

Not really, some interesting short term psychology in all that though. There's lots of different investor types, I'm a growth investor predominantly, have done value, and have never been a yield investor.

The growth investors I really admire are the ones that can identify the disruptive tech very early on and can back themselves with that knowledge, wish I could do that.

Then there are the Warren Buffet types who identify strong forward business plans, back themselves with that understanding and invest. I try to default to that sort of model, not that I expect to be a billionaire.

I bought the Pacific Edge five year business plan in 2012/13 and am quite content watching it play out, they’re entirely on track at present and I’m a content holder with that allotment in my bottom draw.

It was, and still is, a buy of the market analysis, the disruptive tech, competitiveness and damn good management. Investing in the sound plans of very smart, energetic and motivated folk often pays off in life.

Those who invested at 20c though probably are quite content, those investing at 74c will be equally as content IMO, if I may be allowed one.

[Crystal Ball]

Never a truer word written. You have hit the nail on the head Dentie- I too am a satisfied long term holder but do get a bit un nerved by the opportunistic lot and really should ignore it all. I am happily on the right side of the arrow, and yes, could have sold out when it ballooned but decided not to, and comfortable with that decision- have a reasonably substantial shareholding and prepared to be proudly part of the good that they will do. Relax all and let PEB do its work....

[skid]

Not really, some interesting short term psychology in all that though. There's lots of different investor types, I'm a growth investor predominantly, have done value, and have never been a yield investor.

The growth investors I really admire are the ones that can identify the disruptive tech very early on and can back themselves with that knowledge, wish I could do that.

Then there are the Warren Buffet types who identify strong forward business plans, back themselves with that understanding and invest. I try to default to that sort of model, not that I expect to be a billionaire.

I bought the Pacific Edge five year business plan in 2012/13 and am quite content watching it play out, they’re entirely on track at present and I’m a content holder with that allotment in my bottom draw.

It was, and still is, a buy of the market analysis, the disruptive tech, competitiveness and damn good management. Investing in the sound plans of very smart, energetic and motivated folk often pays off in life.

Those who invested at 20c though probably are quite content, those investing at 74c will be equally as content IMO, if I may be allowed one.

The byproduct of growth is that you make money---I could change that to I want to experience growth(which means we make more money) vs ''I dont want to lose money''

A growth investor I admire put me on to a company that fits all your guide lines and was(is) farther along the growth curve,with stronger fundamentals--I brought it to every ones attention and no one wanted to know--(since then it has grown by leaps and bounds)--go figure.....

[NT001]

Here's another patient long term holder not too concerned about what the TA traders are up to or how the SP rises and falls at this relatively early stage of the company's development. I'm looking to longer term SP appreciation plus the satisfaction of seeing a NZ biotech company eventually doing some good as well as turning a dollar. Okay it's speculative, we know that, but if no investors were willing to take risks the US railroads would never have been built and a lot of worthwhile businesses would never take off. A few of us took a hit at least temporarily with CRP, a much greater risk (although I suspect not many of us were in really deep), so my guess is that most of us are not blind to the need to keep things balanced and diversified and to avoid mortgaging the house.

[skid]

Never a truer word written. You have hit the nail on the head Dentie- I too am a satisfied long term holder but do get a bit un nerved by the opportunistic lot and really should ignore it all. I am happily on the right side of the arrow, and yes, could have sold out when it ballooned but decided not to, and comfortable with that decision- have a reasonably substantial shareholding and prepared to be proudly part of the good that they will do. Relax all and let PEB do its work....

Its interesting that those who can totally relate to this are all sitting comfortably on the right side of the arrow--what about all those poor souls who are sitting painfully on the wrong side of the arrow?--I dont see anything about them in the tirade (those are the people the invested Bulls should be justifying to,dont you think?

[couta1]

Its interesting that those who can totally relate to this are all sitting comfortably on the right side of the arrow--what about all those poor souls who are sitting painfully on the wrong side of the arrow?--I dont see anything about them in the tirade (those are the people the invested Bulls should be justifying to,dont you think?
But Skid those invested Bulls are an encouragement to us red arrowed souls with their well researched facts which they post on this thread, as you know I wouldn't be selling anyway but birds of a feather flock together as they say. Disc- Holding quite a few at $1.35

[klid]

Hey Baa Baa--Out of interest what would todays price action have to do to confirm or deny?
I reckon, there is no price action. 24,415 shares over about 5 trades. Just a dude or two doing some stuff. I reckon that until you see huge and even sustained volume then any cues taken from price action are likely to be false.

[skid]

Skid, you and a few others have had an absolutely stunning run with NAN - congratulations - it may be running a bit hot now; (perhaps), Snappiti has sold, (good for him), but what happens when you sell? What are you going to say to the purchasers of your shares? (those poor souls) I'm just curious.

If your talking about Denties tirade (as he put it) I personally think that he made a logical decision in selling and holding onto profits (if he wanted) My comments were in response to his criticism of other investors--i dont think it was a fair representation--It has to be taken in context--(they do seem to be the forgotten ones though)--Sorry Couts-i should have made you the exception--for better or worse at least your still smiling(while i wouldnt adopt your investing technique-i do admire your optimism,and hope you realise my occasional digs are good natured)

You may well be right about NAN,but Ill let it run for the moment as long as they keep earning respect-As things progress one would hope that sales would increase progressively-If things go pear shaped,(perhaps if the GE thing turns bad) then once a downturn is established I would go elsewhere--maybe back here-(if they earn it)--You guys would all have more dosh as a reward for taking your chances with your support and staying in but that would be ok.
Im not a Guru as the name suggests-but I do like to think I listen to the right people and appreciate their input.

Perhaps we should swap Hancocks--You could be the Guru(I never asked for it) -and I could be the ''devils advocate'' :):)

PS-That would be an interesting world if we did talk to our share buyers!

[skid]

Thanx (Nan) but I cant really take the credit.

Gotta say -I was astounded to see you have been a member since 2005 with only 39 posts--You must be at the top, in terms of information per post!

Whether we agree or not on everything,you are certainly a wealth of info-- Cheers

[Baa_Baa]

Hey Baa Baa--Out of interest what would todays price action have to do to confirm or deny?

I mentioned,

"If Monday bounces it may be a Morning Star or Abandoned Baby (a three-day candle pattern with higher open than Friday's close, and a higher close than Thursday's high) - both bullish reversal signals."

... which it hasn't done, in fact today, it barely did anything ... 8 trades, flatline @ $0.74 vol 24,415 turnover $18,067

[Baa_Baa]

Yup, agree mainly, even average volumes, but today it pretty much never left the parking lot.
I reckon, there is no price action. 24,415 shares over about 5 trades. Just a dude or two doing some stuff. I reckon that until you see huge and even sustained volume then any cues taken from price action are likely to be false.

[Crystal Ball]

Its interesting that those who can totally relate to this are all sitting comfortably on the right side of the arrow--what about all those poor souls who are sitting painfully on the wrong side of the arrow?--I dont see anything about them in the tirade (those are the people the invested Bulls should be justifying to,dont you think?
Well skid, they jumped on board when things went ballistic and the share price jumped very quickly. Had they been a wee bit patient and waited for the drop, they would have also been on the right side of the arrow....can't blame the Bulls for that one. What goes up often goes down..... They just need to hold on, they will be on the right side of the arrow in time if all goes to plan.

[bunter]

7072

Seems PEB will either succeed or fail.
If successful, it goes to - what, $1.25? $5?
If not, it goes lower, maybe to 0.

To me that's a speculative stock.

Right now the long term (50/200MA) trend is down.
The price is below both averages.

If considering a buy, why not wait until the downtrend is broken?
If the downtrend is never broken, save 100% of the proposed stake.

[MAC]

Many, well most really, might suggest that trying to predict the long term success of a company is entirely about business efficacy.

Trying to predict the long term success of any company from a chart is about as foretelling as rolling chicken bones. Though perhaps with the chart telling you that the outcome could be anywhere between zero and $5 might be a clue of that.

The evaluation of likely business success is about the intrinsic matters, evaluation of competitiveness, market analysis, technology, strategy, capitalisation, management, forward cashflows, sensitivity analysis, all the important things an entire world full of investors tend to focus on, and well for good reason too.

Good luck Bunter though with your speculative chart, such things are just squiggly lines on the way to an outcome determined by fundamentals and value.

For everyone else the analyst reports might be a good place to start.

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=pacificedge290914outlook.pdf&first_name=%%Forename%%&last_name=%%Surname%%&company=%%Company%%&email=%%emailaddr%%

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pacific-edge2

[NT001]

[QUOTE=bunter;559370
Seems PEB will either succeed or fail.
If successful, it goes to - what, $1.25? $5?
If not, it goes lower, maybe to 0.
To me that's a speculative stock.[/QUOTE]

MAC is correct. It's your scenario that's speculative, Bunter, and unrealistic to say the least. PEB is speculative in the sense that its SP may be volatile and there are no guarantees of making a profit from investing in it. Not in the sense that it's going to go belly-up. Even if it were to miss out on getting acceptance by the US health sector of any of the various elements of its cxBladder suite, which would appear highly unlikely, it's got other markets as well, plus melanoma and colorectal, plus IP that would be worth quite a bit to others. It's not like CRP which has only one arrow in its quiver. Okay, TA traders and some short and medium term investors are getting impatient with PEB, and acting accordingly. Biotech shares aren't flavour of the month right now, especially after the recent plethora of IPOs in the IT sector, but if NZ investors won't support PEB, a well-run company in a sector that has a big future, a takeover bid would seem the most probable outcome.

[bunter]

Many, well most really, might suggest that trying to predict the long term success of a company is entirely about business efficacy.
You arrogate majority support for your opinion.


Trying to predict the long term success of any company from a chart is about as foretelling as rolling chicken bones.
Asseveration.


The evaluation of likely business success is about the intrinsic matters, evaluation of competitiveness, market analysis, technology, strategy, capitalisation, management, forward cashflows, sensitivity analysis, all the important things an entire world full of investors tend to focus on, and well for good reason too.

Spare me the lecture. I do all that. But I won't bet against the market. If the price is falling the market is telling you something, and it doesn't matter how intelligent you are, or think you are, or how detailed your analysis, there's a good chance you're wrong.

The market deserves respect.


Good luck Bunter though with your speculative chart, such things are just squiggly lines on the way to an outcome determined by fundamentals and value.
The chart doesn't speculate, it's a factual summary.


For everyone else the analyst reports might be a good place to start.
See first comment


http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....=%%emailaddr%% (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=pacificedge290914outlook.pdf&first_name=%%Forename%%&last_name=%%Surname%%&company=%%Company%%&email=%%emailaddr%%)

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch..../pacific-edge2 (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pacific-edge2)

Useful information - thanks. I'm skeptical of Edison but I guess it's a start.

[bunter]

MAC is correct. It's your scenario that's speculative, Bunter, and unrealistic to say the least. PEB is speculative in the sense that its SP may be volatile and there are no guarantees of making a profit from investing in it. Not in the sense that it's going to go belly-up. Even if it were to miss out on getting acceptance by the US health sector of any of the various elements of its cxBladder suite, which would appear highly unlikely, it's got other markets as well, plus melanoma and colorectal, plus IP that would be worth quite a bit to others. It's not like CRP which has only one arrow in its quiver. Okay, TA traders and some short and medium term investors are getting impatient with PEB, and acting accordingly. Biotech shares aren't flavour of the month right now, especially after the recent plethora of IPOs in the IT sector, but if NZ investors won't support PEB, a well-run company in a sector that has a big future, a takeover bid would seem the most probable outcome.

Ok I think I understand - PEB is not a speculative stock, its future is assured because of all the things listed in this thread. Other views are unrealistic.
Thanks.

[couta1]

Had a good laugh bunter re your comment that the market deserves respect as though its some sort of angelic entity, yeah right , would this be the same market that took Xro to $45 and then back to $15 hard to respect that kinda schizophrenic behavior. I respect people with integrity in well run companies not the market.

[Dentie]

Had a good laugh bunter re your comment that the market deserves respect as though its some sort of angelic entity, yeah right , would this be the same market that took Xro to $45 and then back to $15 hard to respect that kinda schizophrenic behavior. I respect people with integrity in well run companies not the market.

Agree Couta .... it's the same market that took this very stock from circa .40c to $1.50 (odd) in 2 or 3 days!!

[winner69]

Had a good laugh bunter re your comment that the market deserves respect as though its some sort of angelic entity, yeah right , would this be the same market that took Xro to $45 and then back to $15 hard to respect that kinda schizophrenic behavior. I respect people with integrity in well run companies not the market.

Just as well Balance has been banned saying some of those things

[skid]

Ok I think I understand - PEB is not a speculative stock, its future is assured because of all the things listed in this thread. Other views are unrealistic.
Thanks.

Dont mind them Bunter--They are only using 1 arrow in their quiver(the FA arrow) I dont think they understand what TA represents(the psychology of the market place)

[skid]

Had a good laugh bunter re your comment that the market deserves respect as though its some sort of angelic entity, yeah right , would this be the same market that took Xro to $45 and then back to $15 hard to respect that kinda schizophrenic behavior. I respect people with integrity in well run companies not the market.

It deserves respect because it is the TRUTH about what happened--Its only a reflection of the schizophrenic behavior.

Since this has happened ,the psychology of the market has changed--When it was at this price on its way up to $45 the market (for Xro)was a very different place (the air crackled with positivity) Its not like that now--each gain in SP has to be fought tooth and nail for---surely you can feel that.
Think of it this way--your a football team, and the game has been 0-0 - In the last quarter your team score a goal --awesome! your ahead.

Second scenario-your team was ahead 5-0 then the opposing team starts scoring goals 1..2..3..4 Its now 5-4 your team is still ahead by one goal Its the same situation but the atmosphere is very different-----especially if your thinking about betting.

The quality of the team is FA The atmosphere the team is playing in is TA (or at least a reflection of it)

I would venture to guess that the last sales report would have gained more traction when the SP was on the move up a year or so ago.

[skid]

PS--Balance and Miner had a 3 day ban so should be do back soon (so you wont have to put up with so much me and Mac for to much longer--We both had to much time to kill):):)

[Hoop]

7072

Seems PEB will either succeed or fail.
If successful, it goes to - what, $1.25? $5?
If not, it goes lower, maybe to 0.

To me that's a speculative stock.

Right now the long term (50/200MA) trend is down.
The price is below both averages.

If considering a buy, why not wait until the downtrend is broken?
If the downtrend is never broken, save 100% of the proposed stake.

Brave man Bunter...entering the PEB lion cage armed with a chart and some opening subjective words

Oh dear..the lions didn't see your simple message Bunter offering the best advice that PEBers could ever get ..."don't invest in down trends.. wait"....but hang on..yeah I forgot PEBers don't respect Mr Market nor his charted history.......carry on lions..maul away..

[MAC]

The point Bunter is simply that you can’t tell where a company will be in five year’s time from a stock chart, it’s not my point though, it’s the view of the entire international investment community. Its business models and valuation methods that provide such indications.

No disrespect intended, we all can and do have different views.

You may wish to consider though that what one does not know about a business model, does not make a company speculative, it may well just mean that one does know enough.

[psychic]

Aww I dunno Hoop - I recall buying into the downtrend at .60 and then .50 2013. Same thing, little news, price drifting lower. The same arguments on the thread re TA and FA. Worked out okay then :)

[MAC]

Aww I dunno Hoop - I recall buying into the downtrend at .60 and then .50 2013. Same thing, little news, price drifting lower. The same arguments on the thread re TA and FA. Worked out okay then :)

I don't mind TA either, folks making their charting patterns self-fulfilling can be a good thing in providing the irrational windfall dips and opportunities that come along.

Whether one buys at a confirmed TA signal or one buys at an FA valuation threshold, an opportunity is still an opportunity.

[winner69]

The point Bunter is simply that you can’t tell where a company will be in five year’s time from a stock chart, it’s not my point though, it’s the view of the entire international investment community. Its business models and valuation methods that provide such indications.

No disrespect intended, we all can and do have different views.

You may wish to consider though that what one does not know about a business model, does not make a company speculative, it may well just mean that one does know enough.

I think both you and Bunter are right. Based on certain assumptions you get to the same end point .... if things go to plan

The chart below based on the assumption that the market is rationale most of the time. Forget about the madness of last year and that little mountain and you see a steady increase in the share price over time. Assuming the plan works the chart is showing a share price near $2 in 2020. Maybe you can tell what the share price will be in 5 years time!

Mac's FA stuff and business knowledge lets him work out a DCF, all based on assumptions and using sensitive discount rates and all that. He gets a $1.70 valuation (I think) which implies a share price of $2 something in 2018/19 ....if things go to plan

See both approaches give much the same result ... if all goes to plan .... both approaches are 'speculative' and based on assumptions that may or may not eventuate

[skid]

I think the most successful use both

from observing-most TA followers ,use FA as well(although the opposite is quite often not the case)

[Crystal Ball]

Dont mind them Bunter--They are only using 1 arrow in their quiver(the FA arrow) I dont think they understand what TA represents(the psychology of the market place)
It seems weird that you are treating PEB as a stock purely to buy and sell on. What's wrong with buying and holding, having faith in a company and what it is trying to do? Surely all shares aren t to be treated as buy and sell on a daily basis - psochology in the market place means stuff all unless you are looking for short term gains etc. If PEB continues to do good work, who cares about the daily pschology of the desperate one dayers...

[skid]

I dont buy and sell on a daily basis. Or look for short term gains --I do try to avoid loses though---Im not saying this or that about market psychology---just showing that it is there.
Anything else is just assumptions on your part

[Crystal Ball]

I dont buy and sell on a daily basis. Or look for short term gains --I do try to avoid loses though---Im not saying this or that about market psychology---just showing that it is there.
Anything else is just assumptions on your part
Apologies if you thought that is what I was insinuating- Wasn t putting you in that basket skid, I don t assume what others are doing , however I really just wanted to point out that while there is so much daily discussion on this thread, it does seem rather weird , despite the flurry of unrealistic prices last year, I see this share as a slow burner. I am confident that they will increase in price, over time, and they will add to their repertoire of tests for cancer thanks to the bright sparks in Dunedin etc.... Happy to hold long term, I don t think this company will crash and burn.

[skid]

I dont think it will crash and burn either---slow consistent growth would be good--Im sure most of us would like to see the tests available if we ever need them. (and a kiwi co. be successful)

[NT001]

Ok I think I understand - PEB is not a speculative stock, its future is assured because of all the things listed in this thread. Other views are unrealistic.
Thanks.

No, that's not what I said at all. I said it is a speculative stock, but questioned your definition of what is meant by a speculative stock.

[MAC]

Of course Winner that would make your rather nice chart a Cxbladder(detect) only chart.

Then one would really need to add charts for Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxbladder(health).

And then probably one, more, or all of Cxcolorectal which is market ready, and the melanoma and gastric pipeline products which may well have found companion diagnostic partners by then too, then perhaps add some other potential early stage pipeline products.

It’s like a sausage machine, the first sausage out of the machine finances the next, cranking away, some will be more successful than others, some will have higher margins, some may not launch at all, but the future looks both diversified and really quite bright, lots of smart people making smart products down there in the Dunedin lab, University of Otago also.

Hence the very real possibility of it being more of a $5 looking chart in that timeframe.

[skid]

Still got to much time on your hands mac?:):)

[Hoop]

Aww I dunno Hoop - I recall buying into the downtrend at .60 and then .50 2013. Same thing, little news, price drifting lower. The same arguments on the thread re TA and FA. Worked out okay then :)

Yeah..but you took a big risk to get that big reward..I like to sleep at night knowing that my discipline with a 70+% success rate guarantees me that I will eventually beat the house and win out.....but anyway.... shhhh!!!..Psychic:D..I made a realised capital gain in 2014 within the overall down trend too... using much safer medium term TA buy/sell signals and patterns...(Except my last PEB sell was a portfolio risk/reward efficiency adjustment. As it happened it worked out OK for Me as PEB eventually lost traction)..

I posted my IN and OUT charts + reasons why.. the last time was on 14 Nov 2014 Post #11218 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd/page748)..This chart shows my entire trading history with PEB (2 holdings).. I think everyone would agree that I've done well out of PEB using the squiggly line investing discipline.This would be a successful example that Mr Markets actions should never be dismissed over that of FA and its forward FA tools to predict the future..Investors should use both and if there's a TA/FA discrepancy those investors are alerted and warned to the fact that some sort of future corrective action may occur................When it comes down to the nitty gritty I respect Mr Markets actions .. ..that is the main plank to TA discipline...

I routinely use FA for stock selection, so this post is not a personal TA v FA debate.....Investing is a trade and like all good trade workers they should have the ability to successful use any one of their trade tools in their toolbox.

[MAC]

The sausage machine is here for those interested;

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/products/pipeline/


Of course Winner that would make your rather nice chart a Cxbladder(detect) only chart.

Then one would really need to add charts for Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxbladder(health).

And then probably one, more, or all of Cxcolorectal which is market ready, and the melanoma and gastric pipeline products which may well have found companion diagnostic partners by then too, then perhaps add some other potential early stage pipeline products.

It’s like a sausage machine, the first sausage out of the machine finances the next, cranking away, some will be more successful than others, some will have higher margins, some may not launch at all, but the future looks both diversified and really quite bright, lots of smart people making smart products down there in the Dunedin lab, University of Otago also.

Hence the very real possibility of it being more of a $5 looking chart in that timeframe.

[Whipmoney]

Yeah..but you took a big risk to get that big reward..

I like to sleep at night knowing that my discipline with a 70+% success rate guarantees me that I will eventually beat the house and win out.....but anyway.... shhhh!!!..Psychic:D..I made a realised capital gain in 2014 within the overall down trend too... using much safer medium term TA buy/sell signals and patterns...(Except my last PEB sell was a portfolio risk/reward efficiency adjustment. As it happened it worked out OK for Me as PEB eventually lost traction)..

I posted my IN and OUT charts + reasons why.. the last time was on 14 Nov 2014 Post #11218 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd/page748)..This chart shows my entire trading history with PEB (2 holdings).. I think everyone would agree that I've done well out of PEB using the squiggly line investing discipline.This would be a successful example that Mr Markets actions should never be dismissed over that of FA and its forward FA tools to predict the future..Investors should use both and if there's a TA/FA discrepancy those investors are alerted and warned to the fact that some sort of future corrective action may occur................When it comes down to the nitty gritty I respect Mr Markets actions .. ..that is the main plank to TA discipline...

I routinely use FA for stock selection, so this post is not a personal TA v FA debate.....Investing is a trade and like all good trade workers they should have the ability to successful use any one of their trade tools in their toolbox.


Lol this reminds me of the Brian Fantana quote in Anchorman: 60% of the time, it works everytime..

A 70% success rate (on trades/positions) does not guarantee you that you will "beat" the house (whatever the benchmark is..), as one could easily loose more capital in a single (losing) 30% trade/position than they make in aggregate in their 70% successful trades.

[skid]

Does that mean you have better than a 70% success rate whip?

Seems a bit closed minded to ignore something that could potentially help

[winner69]

Of course Winner that would make your rather nice chart a Cxbladder(detect) only chart.

Then one would really need to add charts for Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), Cxbladder(health).

And then probably one, more, or all of Cxcolorectal which is market ready, and the melanoma and gastric pipeline products which may well have found companion diagnostic partners by then too, then perhaps add some other potential early stage pipeline products.

It’s like a sausage machine, the first sausage out of the machine finances the next, cranking away, some will be more successful than others, some will have higher margins, some may not launch at all, but the future looks both diversified and really quite bright, lots of smart people making smart products down there in the Dunedin lab, University of Otago also.

Hence the very real possibility of it being more of a $5 looking chart in that timeframe.

Yes same approach as your stated DCF ..... for one product only and then the sausage machine

Who knows how many products we need to add on

Why not aim for $10 bucks

[MAC]

Yes same approach as your stated DCF ..... for one product only and then the sausage machine

Who knows how many products we need to add on

Why not aim for $10 bucks

Well yeah, there's all the potential in the world really,

One thing that gives me some confidence is, well firstly, the fact that management have chosen to appoint the two advisory boards.

It takes humble and focused management to actually relinquish full technological control like that, and perhaps some market analysis focus also, they’re not just making idle decisions around the water cooler, you know, seemingly they have enough quality scientific folk watching over them, although I'm not a scientist and take that a face value.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/advisory-boards/clinical-advisory/

I've made the trip down to Dunedin for a couple of AGM's, and it does seem that the feel is that they are really twitching for cashflow to crank that handle, probably from 2016 I think.

One take away has been that the Cxbladder products will probably have the highest gross margins and thus have been pushed and prioritised to the front of the queue, but then 80% margins are pretty damn high, if Cxcolorectal has even 40% margins that would be a not too bad next product off the rank to fly.

[Whipmoney]

Does that mean you have better than a 70% success rate whip?

Seems a bit closed minded to ignore something that could potentially help

Mmm it's not like i'm a trader but on short-term positions I would probably say that I've had closer to a 30% success rate....

In terms of Long-term positions, well I guess closer to a 100%.

Total return over the last 12 months > 70%.

I guess what let me down was over-thinking/churning my positions in a vein attempt to mitigate the 'downside' potential of suspected "down-trends".


For the record thought, I wasn't scoffing at Hoop getting it right 70% of the time.. I was just pointing out that it can only take a single bad trade/position to wipe out a significant amount of your capital.. in which case a 70% success won't necessarily equate to "guaranteed" (i.e. 100%) outperformance.

[Hoop]

Lol this reminds me of the Brian Fantana quote in Anchorman: 60% of the time, it works everytime..

A 70% success rate (on trades/positions) does not guarantee you that you will "beat" the house (whatever the benchmark is..), as one could easily loose more capital in a single (losing) 30% trade/position than they make in aggregate in their 70% successful trades.

Whip..

The TA discipline works exactly the opposite scenario to your way of perceiving it.

Yes it is true you may suffer losses ...but it is the gains which far exceed the value of your losses...

It is extremely rare to see a stock go belly up without any TA sell signals...The whole methodology of the TA discipline is the ability to escape without suffering big losses....the ability to quit your losses early on with the sell signals thereby 90+% of the time they are relativity small losses (10-15%) and TA lets your much more common gains keep on running ... some of them end up being extremely big gains and sometimes some continual upward price movements can last for years...Phaedrus using a similar medium term TA discipline had FBU for 7 years (a six bagger in total)

PEB share price performance has keep TAers out of this stock more often than in it...

EDIT: just read your last post...Yes the gains with your discipline is similar to the common basic medium term TA discipline one would expect at the moment...

[Whipmoney]

One take away has been that the Cxbladder products will probably have the highest gross margins and thus have been pushed and prioritised to the front of the queue, but then 80% margins are pretty damn high, if Cxcolorectal has even 40% margins that would be a not too bad next product off the rank to fly.

It doesn't actually matter what the gross margins are.. whether 80%, 90%, 99% or 1%, GM (as a %) is simply a nominal / rather meaningless value.

In terms of financial metrics, what really matters for PEB (in order of importance) is:

a) Sales;
b) Scalability of those sales;
c) The cost of that scalability; and
d) Gross Profit relative to overhead.


What good is a 99% gross margin percentage when you sell 4 units and are burning $4m a year..

[Whipmoney]

Whip..

The TA discipline works exactly the opposite scenario to your way of perceiving it.

Yes it is true you may suffer losses ...but it is the gains which far exceed the value of your losses...

It is extremely rare to see a stock go belly up without any TA sell signals... The whole methodology of the TA discipline is the ability to escape without suffering big losses....the ability to quit your losses early on with the sell signals thereby 90+% of the time they are relativity small losses (10-15%) and TA lets your much more common gains keep on running ... some of them end up being extremely big gains and sometimes some continual upward price movements can last for years...Phaedrus using a similar medium term TA discipline had FBU for 7 years (a six bagger in total).


Two words... Pike River.

[skid]

Mmm it's like i'm a trader but on short-term positions I would probably say that I've had closer to a 30% success rate....

In terms of Long-term positions, well I guess closer to a 100%.

Total return over the last 12 months > 70%.

I guess what let me down was over-thinking/churning my positions in a vein attempt to mitigate the 'downside' potential of suspected "down-trends".


For the record thought, I wasn't scoffing at Hoop getting it right 70% of the time.. I was just pointing out that it can only take a single bad trade/position to wipe out a significant amount of your capital.. in which case a 70% success won't necessarily equate to "guaranteed" (i.e. 100%) outperformance.

I mistakenly thought you were building a case for not useing both TA and FA--apologies

[skid]

Two words... Pike River.

That was a pretty unusual situation--I guess some would argue FA should have caught that--I guess every sector is somehow exposed to the unexpected--plane crash--Ebola--fire at the lab or some contaminant or lab error resulting in a suet --guess there will always be the unexpected remote possibility you cant plan for.

[MAC]

Gross margins are absolutely important !

Gross Margin = (Revenue – COGs) / Revenue

What gross margins provide analysts with is not only a feel for the underlying relative efficacy between products, but it also it provides the basis for determining and calculating forward EBITDA.

Margin analysis is everything in determining forward free cashflows and therefore valuations for molecular diagnostic companies.

Molecular diagnostics, RNA based at least, are very very low capital propositions indeed, once the laboratories are constructed and equipped and the assay software has been developed, there is virtually no capital outlay post product launch.

That's where Pacific Edge are presently at with Cxbladder, they have pretty much invested the capital now and are presently ramping revenues.

The ‘cash burn’ as you call for molecular diagnostic stocks is not proportional or linked to sales or customer numbers like it commonly is with IT tech stocks. It’s a different sector and a different business model.

The lab and sales staff are hired at the get go, right at beginning, and pretty much hold steady in number from that point in time as revenues ramp and grow.

COGs for Cxbladder is presently around $10M, it will go to, by my estimate, to around $19M and hold there when they finish hiring, they have 7 sales staff yet to hire.

At FY19 their goal is $100M in revenues, COGs by my estimation (for Cxbladder) are likely to be around $19M max, EBITDA circa $80M, NPAT quite conservatively at $50M.

[winner69]

Gross margins are absolutely important !

Gross Margin = (Revenue – COGs) / Revenue

What gross margins provide analysts with is not only a feel for the underlying relative efficacy between products, but it also it provides the basis for determining and calculating forward EBITDA.

Margin analysis is everything in determining forward free cashflows and therefore valuations for molecular diagnostic companies.

Molecular diagnostics, RNA based at least, are very very low capital propositions indeed, once the laboratories are constructed and equipped and the assay software has been developed, there is virtually no capital outlay post product launch.

That's where Pacific Edge are presently at with Cxbladder, they have pretty much invested the capital now and are presently ramping revenues.

The ‘cash burn’ as you call for molecular diagnostic stocks is not proportional or linked to sales or customer numbers like it commonly is with IT tech stocks. It’s a different sector and a different business model.

The lab and sales staff are hired at the get go, right at beginning, and pretty much hold steady in number from that point in time as revenues ramp and grow.

COGs for Cxbladder is presently around $10M, it will go to, by my estimate, to around $19M and hold there when they finish hiring, they have 7 sales staff yet to hire.

At FY19 their goal is $100M in revenues, COGs by my estimation (for Cxbladder) are likely to be around $19M max, EBITDA circa $80M, NPAT quite conservatively at $50M.

Aren't you somewhat confused with this COGS figure and subsequent Gross Margin.

COGS are the actual direct cost of the tests they sell. All the other stuff you mention like sales people etc are expenses, not COGS

Look at the Edison report financials for 2016e to see what I mean. Revenues of 14439 and cost of sales (COGS) of 1990 to give a Gross Profit of 12449 - a Gross Margin of 86%. Sounds about right eh.

Not shown as a line in their financials are cash expenses of 11029. Take that from the Gross Margin and you get EBITDA of 1420.

Get the gist why I think you appear to be a bit confused.

So on your $100m of revenues and 80% Gross Msrgin we get $80m. Take off your $19m of expenses but lets say $20m and we get Ebitda of $60m. There still will be the D and A and maybe if PEB are paying tax by then (don't know that) so a bit of T and as such I would think NPAT would be a lot less than your $50m

My model has a Free Cash Flow of $35m in the year they achieve $100m revenues. That's probably why my DCF valuation is a lot less than yours.

[MAC]

Yep I follow that thanks, and concede too that by pure definition and the precise accounting of costs, COGS will include lab staff and the manufacture of the test kits but not the field sales staff or distribution costs (well postage and handling).

I'm not sure Edison are using a strict apportionment of what should be inside or outside of COGS either actually, they seem to have at FY16 anyway, too little inside and too much outside, COGs in the first year of profitability shouldn’t quite yet be 86%.

It is my confusion though with an apology, perhaps Edison’s also, but on that understanding and through the apportionment of overall holistic costs more precisely, it should be more like;

FY19 $100M revenues, $80M gross profit, $75M EBITDA, $50M NPAT

I’m comfortable with that.

Do note though Winner that the only significant capital outlay would be at FY20 for a lab extension, Pacific Edge have a purchase option on the second half of the floor within the building they occupy in the US, that’s an ambitious sign in itself.

They do need as I understand additional lab equipment for every 40,000 tests when ramping up, but that's sundry capital, thousands, definitely not millions, it's a very very low capital model indeed.

Not much to depreciate on that basis either then, the US lab cost $6M to establish in 2013.

[Snow Leopard]

Yep I follow that thanks, and concede too that by pure definition and the precise accounting of costs, COGS will include lab staff and the manufacture of the test kits but not the field sales staff or distribution costs (well postage and handling).

I'm not sure Edison are using a strict apportionment of what should be inside or outside of COGS either actually, they seem to have at FY16 anyway, too little inside and too much outside, COGs in the first year of profitability shouldn’t quite yet be 86%.

It is my confusion though with an apology, perhaps Edison’s also, but on that understanding and through the apportionment of overall holistic costs more precisely, it should be more like;

FY19 $100M revenues, $80M gross profit, $75M EBITDA, $50M NPAT

I’m comfortable with that.

Do note though Winner that the only significant capital outlay would be at FY20 for a lab extension, Pacific Edge have a purchase option on the second half of the floor within the building they occupy in the US, that’s an ambitious sign in itself.

They do need as I understand additional lab equipment for every 40,000 tests when ramping up, but that's sundry capital, thousands, definitely not millions, it's a very very low capital model indeed.

Not much to depreciate on that basis either then, the US lab cost $6M to establish in 2013.

That is going straight to the pool room.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Mista_Trix]

Whip..

The TA discipline works exactly the opposite scenario to your way of perceiving it.

Yes it is true you may suffer losses ...but it is the gains which far exceed the value of your losses...

It is extremely rare to see a stock go belly up without any TA sell signals...The whole methodology of the TA discipline is the ability to escape without suffering big losses....the ability to quit your losses early on with the sell signals thereby 90+% of the time they are relativity small losses (10-15%) and TA lets your much more common gains keep on running ... some of them end up being extremely big gains and sometimes some continual upward price movements can last for years...Phaedrus using a similar medium term TA discipline had FBU for 7 years (a six bagger in total)

PEB share price performance has keep TAers out of this stock more often than in it...

EDIT: just read your last post...Yes the gains with your discipline is similar to the common basic medium term TA discipline one would expect at the moment...

What medium term signals are your preferred ones Hoop?

[Baa_Baa]

What medium term signals are your preferred ones Hoop?

With respect MT, Hoop appears a patient soul, diligent and generously sharing as well, though why would he not simply refer you to the chart that he posted and recently referenced again, which has the medium term indicators on it along with his buys and sells? If you study that chart you will see that apart from his last sell which he noted as better opportunities with less risk elsewhere, the previous trades coincide with the indicators he chose to perfectly announce the time to buy and the time to sell .. which he did. If you need a clue, look at the DMI and align that to the price, then look at whether the other indicators confirm. Hoop patiently explains this time and time again.

[skid]

That is going straight to the pool room.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Its hard to watch isnt it,PT

He's been trying to make people feel better about losing money ever since last Feb(in other words ,all the way down) with assumptions--''ramping up revenues''--no one knows if they are ramping up revenues(enough to meet their projected growth curve)-----far to few IMO attached to those kind of statements.
Whats the point of have alot of different ''sausages'' in your machine if you (potentially)cant sell them.
Even having the best product is not enough to assume success in the real world of medical commercialization--thats not down ramping -its reality.
If you take that on board and still want to chance an investment to support ,for better ,or worse,a Kiwi co.,then thats fine--but lets keep it real.

[Balance]

Its hard to watch isnt it,PT

He's been trying to make people feel better about losing money ever since last Feb(in other words ,all the way down) with assumptions--''ramping up revenues''--no one knows if they are ramping up revenues(enough to meet their projected growth curve)-----far to few IMO attached to those kind of statements.
Whats the point of have alot of different ''sausages'' in your machine if you (potentially)cant sell them.
Even having the best product is not enough to assume success in the real world of medical commercialization--thats not down ramping -its reality.
If you take that on board and still want to chance an investment to support ,for better ,or worse,a Kiwi co.,then thats fine--but lets keep it real.

Regurgitating a company's PR releases - is that research?

Meanwhile, happenings in the industry out there are brushed aside - inconvenient truth.

[MAC]

Looking at Forbar this morning, they are applying forward net margins above 60%.

I consider that I’ve been really quite conservative in rounding down to $50M NPAT, that’s a 50% net margin but would like to see the FY16 report tabled before revising.

You have 35% net margins Winner which does seem relatively very low, something to reflect on perhaps.

[hilskin]

Here we go again, LOL

[skid]

Meanwhile everyone is waiting for Kaiser Permanentie's clinical trails to finish and that they will do the right thing and adopt PEBs product (instead of one of the other products)
Meanwhile the largest strike of mental health workers has just unfolded against (you guessed it) kaiser P--the reason not wages-or benefits for workers--Nope it s because workers claim that kaiser has cut back so much that they say mental health patients are not receiving proper care.....goes on to say Kaiser is breaking numerous federal and state laws regarding patient care.
So...would Kaiser do a deal on a less effective ,but cheaper cancer diagnostic test---well..we dont know ,but nothing can be assumed at this stage.

How would those figures look if the test was farmed out at half the going rate?

[psychic]

Yup, Skid, Balance, PT - you have added nothing.
PT - you have figures in mind - why not present them?
Balance - more alluding to things . There are loads of things happening, which worries you most?
Skid.. just love to see your personal analysis

Put up or shut up

[skid]

Yup, Skid, Balance, PT - you have added nothing.
PT - you have figures in mind - why not present them?
Balance - more alluding to things . There are loads of things happening, which worries you most?
Skid.. just love to see your personal analysis

Put up or shut up

Im not making any assumptions -by putting up possible scenarios,Im simply pointing out the dangers of assumptions

whether you want to consider it is up to you

about kaiser..

http://www.liberationnews.org/kaiser-mental-health-workers-strike/


lets call it variables...

[skid]

skid. Are you retired? Every time I visit ST, you are on here posting furiously. I'm sure there are better ways to spend they day, no?

for the most part yes--with a bit of free time atm:):)

feel free to disregard any info posted--but seriously the glittering and glossing over PR was just to much bear in my moment of weaknes.

Furiously?? (c'mon dont you start with the assumptions as well...:)....)

[skid]

Your right --its been a few days of mandatory office work--time for a break--sun is out (just remember to look past the polish and wax job):):)

[Hoop]

re: It is extremely rare to see a stock go belly up without any TA sell signals


Two words... Pike River.


Wrong two words ..Whip..

I've posted my reply here on the Using TA to time entries and exits thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits/page8) as it doesn't relate to the PEB thread.

[MAC]

Not all of the pipeline products will have the exceptionally high cash cow margins that Cxbladder products are forecast to have, some pipeline products may not pass clinical trials, some may not launch at all.

Certainly though, given the innovation within Pacific Edge, the University of Otago, and the scientific and clinical advisory boards, we should anticipate yet more prospective developments coming along and entering the queue.

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/products/pipeline/

It’s likely based on forecast cashflows, the sausage machine schedule may look indicatively something like the chart below. If any particular product falls away at clinical trials or doesn’t work up with adequate margins, there is likely to be another product right behind in the queue to take its position.

The potential for a company like Pacific Edge to become a significant market player with this technology is entirely plausible, particularly with Obamacare actively supporting and pushing for DNA/RNA based clinical solutions. The time is right and they have the tech.

7075

[NT001]

...Meanwhile the largest strike of mental health workers has just unfolded against (you guessed it) kaiser P--the reason not wages-or benefits for workers--Nope it s because workers claim that kaiser has cut back so much that they say mental health patients are not receiving proper care.....goes on to say Kaiser is breaking numerous federal and state laws regarding patient care.


Yes, this involves KP's mental health division and is a years-old dispute now coming to a head. KP is a huge company and I would suspect its division that deals with cancer drugs etc is enirely separate and probably well funded. This seems to be borne out by one of the strike leaders who is quoted in the media as saying Kaiser does many things well but underfunds mental health care. I wouldn't read too much into this dispute as being relevant to KP's cancer trials with PEB.

[Balance]

Yup, Skid, Balance, PT - you have added nothing.
PT - you have figures in mind - why not present them?
Balance - more alluding to things . There are loads of things happening, which worries you most?
Skid.. just love to see your personal analysis

Put up or shut up

Psychic,

I use any company's information, projections, presentations etc as a guide - not as statements of truth which are going to eventuate. And I monitor carefully what the company asserts and says against developments as they happen. And I talk to competitors, suppliers, creditors, customers etc etc to get alternative and/or affirmative views.

The business/industry/market that PEB is in is very dynamic and becoming crowded (alerted to already by Snapiti) so PEB's competitive edge can only last so long.

There is an imperative need therefore for PEB to get traction and establish market positioning. PEB started its market positioning program in 2012 by using 'user programs' with the intention of shifting the program to full commercial relationships in 2013. Refer AR 2013. Assess and judge for yourself where PEB is at with that strategy of shifting user programs to commercial relationships.

Meanwhile, other players with deeper pockets, market presence and different strategies are entering and/or enhancing their products in the bladder cancer urine test market. It is not a stand still situation where PEB has the luxury of time (and money) to achieve its market positioning! This information is freely available - one only has to search and read!

[psychic]

Psychic,

I use any company's information, projections, presentations etc as a guide - not as statements of truth which are going to eventuate. And I monitor carefully what the company asserts and says against developments as they happen. And I talk to competitors, suppliers, creditors, customers etc etc to get alternative and/or affirmative views.

The business/industry/market that PEB is in is very dynamic and becoming crowded (alerted to already by Snapiti) so PEB's competitive edge can only last so long.

There is an imperative need therefore for PEB to get traction and establish market positioning. PEB started its market positioning program in 2012 by using 'user programs' with the intention of shifting the program to full commercial relationships in 2013. Refer AR 2013. Assess and judge for yourself where PEB is at with that strategy of shifting user programs to commercial relationships.

Meanwhile, other players with deeper pockets, market presence and different strategies are entering and/or enhancing their products in the bladder cancer urine test market. It is not a stand still situation where PEB has the luxury of time (and money) to achieve its market positioning! This information is freely available - one only has to search and read!

Thank you Balance but you still have not come up with a threat we might discuss. Alluding to something Snapiti knows about (via Moosie if I recall) is not useful to any here.

Of course there is competition - new and old. I've read of plenty. But does this secret test of yours better the robust performance of Cxbladder? Has it's performance been fully validated? Post it up - lets look at it!

One will come about in time for sure - there are too many chasing this prize. PEB is chasing 10% of the market - hardly world domination. Will your new test make all others defunct?

It would be nice to debate facts rather than opinion here for a change

[MAC]

Thank you Balance but you still have not come up with a threat we might discuss. Alluding to something Snapiti knows about (via Moosie if I recall) is not useful to any here.

Of course there is competition - new and old. I've read of plenty. But does this secret test of yours better the robust performance of Cxbladder? Has it's performance been fully validated? Post it up - lets look at it!

One will come about in time for sure - there are too many chasing this prize. PEB is chasing 10% of the market - hardly world domination. Will your new test make all others defunct?

It would be nice to debate facts rather than opinion here for a change

It's hard to beat 100% sensitivity performance too, and four Cxbladder products that will be saturating the market creating a barrier to entry.

Many others will strut about in the media, it's a sexy sector, perhaps one or two might even consider spending $30M to $60M and have a punt, or perhaps they will waiver and decide to put that cash to work in the market where they have a better chance of success and a less competitive foe like Pacific Edge.

What is satisfying though, of any other possible competition, we are invested in the one that has the best performing product, the first mover advantage with RNA tech, that is two years ahead of any of the others, and even better is right now at the base of a nice revenue ramp up curve:)

Edison cover the competition fairly for those looking for a summary based on more in-depth research.

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=pacificedge290914outlook.pdf&first_name=%%Forename%%&last_name=%%Surname%%&company=%%Company%%&email=%%emailaddr%%

7077

[Balance]

Thank you Balance but you still have not come up with a threat we might discuss. Alluding to something Snapiti knows about (via Moosie if I recall) is not useful to any here.

Of course there is competition - new and old. I've read of plenty. But does this secret test of yours better the robust performance of Cxbladder? Has it's performance been fully validated? Post it up - lets look at it!

One will come about in time for sure - there are too many chasing this prize. PEB is chasing 10% of the market - hardly world domination. Will your new test make all others defunct?

It would be nice to debate facts rather than opinion here for a change

Teach a man to fish etc.

Really so hard to do some decent research versus taking a company's reports etc as gospel truth?

10% market share is a huge ask for any company - let alone a company from NZ with the limited marketing, promotion, financial and distribution resources like PEB.

The fact that PEB is not prepared to disclose numbers tells me a lot. A company which is tracking against a market share target with confidence will post the numbers as the very act engenders user confidence to pay the product (marketing 101).

[psychic]

Not interested in your opinion Balance, post some fact.

[Balance]

Not interested in your opinion Balance, post some fact.

DYOR.

Not going to spoonfeed you as you are already well fed by PEB and its posters here. :D

[NT001]

Did you guys not read STMOD's new warning/threat today?

Some of us would like this thread to continue, minus the childish pointless ad hominem stuff.

[winner69]

Did you guys not read STMOD's new warning/threat today?

Some of us would like this thread to continue, minus the childish pointless ad hominem stuff.

Suppose you will be pushing that little triangle button at the left bottom on any post that offends you.

[NT001]

Suppose you will be pushing that little triangle button at the left bottom on any post that offends you.

No, that wouldn't solve anything really. It's not a question of whether I am offended, and the thread is obviously being monitored anyway.

I doubt if I'm the only one who fails to see the point of the personally antagonistic tone it sometimes descends to when there are plenty of issues that could be discussed in an adult and informative way. I'm interested in all contributors' views about PEB, but not their petty personal putdowns and oneupmanship.

[Balance]

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Quick-accurate-test-bladder-prostate-cancers/story-25928540-detail/story.html

This is but one example of what Snapiti has been alerting to in the bladder cancer urine testing space - it is getting crowded. Many fizzes out to oblivion but some are being brought to market.

Those who are funding these developments are not mugs and as part of their due diligence, are certainly aware of the CxBladders in this world.

I have often wondered if I am missing something when I see yet another company entering the space. Afterall, PEB already boasts of such a superior product that it must be sheer foolery to invest in anything else.

This is where it is important to dig deeper into the tests being developed and compare the mechanics of how the tests are being brought to market, and critically, at what price.

And be ever cynical and questioning of company's assertions.

[MAC]

In diagnostic tests such as Cxbladder(detect) it is the early stage tumors that are important as urologist and their patients wish to diagnose cancer as early as possible such that treatment may commence earlier and such that the poor buggers that are inflicted may stand a better chance of recovery.

For the diagnostic tests it is the Tis, Ta, T1, T2, T3 stages that are of most importance.

A good explanation of the stages of cancer can be found here at the US cancer society website;

http://www.cancer.org/treatment/understandingyourdiagnosis/staging

Cxbladder(detect) has 100% sensitivity in the detection of Tis, T1, T2, T3 cancer stages, and 68% sensitivity in the Ta stage, which for the Ta cancers is twice as high as Cytology and twice that of any present competition.

In this respect Pacific Edge are a quantum leap ahead in tech and also two to three years ahead in schedule. I think some really do underestimate just how big the gap is and just how much of a disruptive technology this Pacific Edge tech really is.

That's not to say that another company couldn't do the same, but if they set out to achieve 100% sensitivity and fail even by just a few percent they will have burned a lot of R&D cash, millions, for naught.

This very risk creates a high barrier to entry for any company following behind. If they have not produced a 100% product it's very unlikely any company will throw further cash at it to commercialise it when they can invest that cash elsewhere.

We would hear very very few professional clinicians, conscious of litigation, and with lives in their hands, say,

“sure I’ll use a test that is 30% cheaper if its only got 89% T1 sensitivity”

[Crystal Ball]

No, that wouldn't solve anything really. It's not a question of whether I am offended, and the thread is obviously being monitored anyway.

I doubt if I'm the only one who fails to see the point of the personally antagonistic tone it sometimes descends to when there are plenty of issues that could be discussed in an adult and informative way. I'm interested in all contributors' views about PEB, but not their petty personal putdowns and oneupmanship.
With you on that one NT001. Wonder why it gets so antagonistic on this thread?

[psychic]

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Quick-accurate-test-bladder-prostate-cancers/story-25928540-detail/story.html

This is but one example of what Snapiti has been alerting to in the bladder cancer urine testing space - it is getting crowded. Many fizzes out to oblivion but some are being brought to market.

Those who are funding these developments are not mugs and as part of their due diligence, are certainly aware of the CxBladders in this world.

I have often wondered if I am missing something when I see yet another company entering the space. Afterall, PEB already boasts of such a superior product that it must be sheer foolery to invest in anything else.

This is where it is important to dig deeper into the tests being developed and compare the mechanics of how the tests are being brought to market, and critically, at what price.

And be ever cynical and questioning of company's assertions.


Lol - you may as well have just read the Edison report mate. Urosens is mentioned in that.

[Balance]

Lol - you may as well have just read the Edison report mate. Urosens is mentioned in that.

You may be missing the point, psychic - 'but one example' are the operative words.

Many more out there.

[psychic]

You may be missing the point, psychic - 'but one example' are the operative words.

Many more out there.

No, I'm not missing anything. I Know there are others, I have said that. But I have not read of one that is better.
The question is, do you?

[Balance]

Balance you make the comment:

"I have often wondered if I am missing something when I see yet another company entering the space. After all, PEB already boasts of such a superior product that it must be sheer foolery to invest in anything else".

Good point, I wonder that too, but think that it comes down to a research industry with thousands upon thousands of people employed - when do you voluntarily kill your job? And of course research into bladder cancer (for example) can have spin off technologies and inventions / developments in other products etc. much like the technology gains from the space race or the world wars.


Fair comment and there are other reasons too - like I personally know a high net worth individual (in his 70s) in NZ pumping in many millions of dollars into cancer research as one of his legacy projects.

When venture capitalists are involved in the funding, I tend to think it is more of a judgement call on their part as to how likely they are going to make money from the investments.

[psychic]

The product is awesome. But why is the revenue not there? The product and information has been available for some time. Sure it takes time for approvals etc but my understanding is the NZ system (for example) has had three years and hasn't properly adapted the product even after free trials. Why not? That to me warrants alarm bells.

It's a fair point, and other than offering that it is probably a funding issue/ resistance to change, the Australasian market is pretty pathetic compared to any given State in the US. They are focused on the right market.
The Health system in NZ hasn't embraced the NMP22 or UroVysion tests either from what I understand What do we make of that?

[nextbigthing]

It's a fair point, and other than offering that it is probably a funding issue/ resistance to change, the Australasian market is pretty pathetic compared to any given State in the US. They are focused on the right market.
The Health system in NZ hasn't embraced the NMP22 or UroVysion tests either from what I understand What do we make of that?

That perhaps for now none of these products are going to make it. :scared:

[psychic]

But the thing is that the established Markers in the US are used.

[skid]

given that PEB has predicted gaining 1or2% of the market in the first couple years in the US--that would be a good thing to watch to see if they are on track.

[Balance]

given that PEB has predicted gaining 1or2% of the market in the first couple years in the US--that would be a good thing to watch to see if they are on track.

If PEB gains traction in market share, we can be sure the company will splash it all over their next results - numbers, sales etc.

There will not be one amongst us who does not want PEB to be successful.

As a country, NZ desperately needs a few high profile outstanding success stories in the biotech/biomedical/pharmaceutical sector. In Australia, Cohlear and SCL lead the way. They serve as inspirations and role models for the younger generations to follow, and their outstanding successes create an environment conducive to universities, small companies and individuals obtaining funding.

PEB needs to embrace investors and shareholders constructively - it means being frank and honest with how they are progressing.

Here's a sincere appeal to PEB to open up and interface with the market like the Diligent's and Xero's of the world. You have everything to gain.

[MAC]

I’ll agree with you Balance in part, it would be good to get a bit more feedback released to the market, it’s not an easy sector within which to assess individual company traction without company feedback.

The release of a bit more newsie sort of info like that below would be good from time to time. If the newly established sales team are busy behind the scenes, cranking the handle, doing what they do, that’s the most important thing for now though.

Perhaps we will see those quarterly updates at some stage, now they are set to ramp it would seem appropriate going forward now.


I’ve received this recently from a reliable source;

“We currently submit claims and are being paid by these insurance companies under a molecular test CPT code, which gives us the opportunity to be reimbursed on a case by case basis. Using this strategy, we are receiving reimbursement from all the major insurers including Cigna, Aetna, United, BCBS, Humana, Medicare Advantage plans, and many of the 2nd tier insurers. While the process is long and complex, we are pleased that our reimbursement is going to plan. Once we secure coverage in the public sector (Medicare), we will look to engage insurers Cigna and other major commercial insurers for formal inclusion in the policy as well as negotiate being a contracted provider if we feel it’s in our best interest moving forward”

Nice to see the strategic sales team, recently hired, doing as they do.

Cigna, Aetna, United, BCBS and Humana together provide insurance cover for 215M Americans, another 40M or so are covered by Medicare Advantage plans.

All the doors are now open for Pacific Edge for the sales team to ramp up into.

Would be satisfying to see a step up in revenues, and with quite a helpful US exchange rate too :)

[skid]

I dont think it would be the sales team that update the market(whether or not they are busy) it would most likely be someone a bit higher up. They would know these things on a day to day basis i would think-or perhaps at least tally for the month.
For one reason or another ,it is what they are choosing to do at this stage IMO.
If sales are good--im sure all will be forgotten.If they are not so good ,then the no news scenario will have set a precedent.

I have noticed the bio companies have just reported in Australia--im not sure why it hasnt happened with PEB here--could someone clarify?(maybe Im missing something) (perhaps a differnt tax year or quarterly vs half yearly)

[Balance]

I dont think it would be the sales team that update the market(whether or not they are busy) it would most likely be someone a bit higher up. They would know these things on a day to day basis i would think-or perhaps at least tally for the month.
For one reason or another ,it is what they are choosing to do at this stage IMO.
If sales are good--im sure all will be forgotten.If they are not so good ,then the no news scenario will have set a precedent.

I have noticed the bio companies have just reported in Australia--im not sure why it hasnt happened with PEB here--could someone clarify?(maybe Im missing something) (perhaps a differnt tax year or quarterly vs half yearly)

Definitely not the sales team - has to be CEO or MD. Quarterly updates like Diligent & Xero would be best.

PEB has 31 March year end so next financial results will be late May. All the more reason why PEB should be updating the market about sales for December quarter to provide some useful guidance.

Notice how there has not been one single announcement by PEB so far this year? For a company which loves to pump out the 'good' news, is it pointing towards something ominous?

[MAC]

The words associated with quarterly reports at some stage were when "meaningful sales" are happening. I would suspect that time will be at hand in the next year or so given the excellent progress made so far, MAC.
The next announcement should be a rehash of the cxbladder patent approved for Europe which was presented in error, retracted and advised that it would be delayed until about February 2015. Of course there is always left field.

Perhaps some advice on CMS shortly also Miner, there’s five weeks left within the reporting period for those invoices to accrue upon an announcement.

The new clinical studies should probably be released in that timeframe adding to the CMS clinical validity dossier we were told about during the HY conference call, the timing for it seems all a bit nine months pregnant now.

Should move insurer contract negotiations nicely along when announced too.

“Once we secure coverage in the public sector (Medicare), we will look to engage insurers Cigna and other major commercial insurers for formal inclusion in the policy as well as negotiate being a contracted provider if we feel it’s in our best interest moving forward”

[Balance]

Looking like 2 big sellers now competing to get out. The 80k to buy at 72c has been taken out.

Let's do a brief review of what PEB is aiming to achieve in the absence of one from PEB so far this year.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacifics-edges-100m-american-dream-dw-130949

Excerpt : "Mr Darling says Pacific Edge is expected to be "cashflow positive" in the US within two years. And it isn't expecting to go back to shareholders unless there is a pressing need to set up a lab in another country".

That was October 2012 - and PEB went back to shareholders exactly a year later for $20.5m in new capital. Definitely not in line with expectations!

Cashflow positive in the US within 2 years? Anyone prepared to take bets on this one?

Do I sense that PEB is busy in the background getting its story ready for the next capital raising? You betcha.

[skid]

There seems to be a pattern with PEB. Announcements in multiples or close together followed by an interminable vacuum until the next announcement. Says a lot for their skills in keeping information under wraps until release except in the case of the cxbladder to Europe patent. Nothing is perfect I guess.

If they have some good news ,this would be a really ,really good time to let it out from under the wraps.

[Absolute144]

Well I bought some today at 73 cents after staying out for a fare while. I dont expect the company to be cashflow positive at the next announcement, but I am hoping for increased sales (like everbody here). I expect they will using money pushing the other just released products to market. (Triage I think they called it?). Anyway, I bought back in as I didn't want to miss out on any potential gains if they do surprise us. However, If the SP drops back to the mid 60's, I'll probably pick up some more. Cheers

[MAC]

What do we know as compared with the prior FY14 period;

-> We know Pacific Edge now have 12 strategic sales staff compared with around 2 or 3.

-> We know Pacific Edge have opened up several new sales regions which are now active

-> We know Pacific Edge are receiving reimbursement from all four network providers (NPNs) now, compared with none yet at FY14.

-> We know Pacific Edge are now receiving reimbursement now from “all the major insurer including Cigna, United, BCBS, Humana, Medicare Advantage plans, and many second tier insurers”.

Flat sales, nope sorry, up and away more like :)

7085

[Balance]

I do not have too much of a problem with David’s comments quite frankly and that is because Pacific Edge are making headway and achieving mile-stones; urologist pre-purchase dissonance was an issue that changed the landscape a bit, and hence the introduction of the ‘User Programs’.

So my personal answer to the point raised by Balance.

Is there going to be a Capital Raising? – I hope not, I would like to see the revenues from sales taking up the slack.

If you are concerned that there may be one coming, or that sales will be flat, then this stock maybe too risky for you. But to make a prediction at the moment with no information update is just a guess, we have not got enough data.

The key now and everyone is aware of this; is sales, sales and sales.

I have a real problem, Hancocks, as David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive. He did not expect to raise any more capital unless there was a pressing need to build another lab. As clear as a a cloudless blue sky on a summer's day.

Implication to me is that the commercialization was already encountering problems when the $20m was raised in Oct 2013.

Unless David Darling was just mouthing off - like Chris Swann with his 'let tens of thousands of tests blossom'. Or am I confusing him with Chairman Mao? :D

[janner]

I have a real problem, Hancocks, as David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive. He did not expect to raise any more capital unless there was a pressing need to build another lab. As clear as a a cloudless blue sky on a summer's day.

Implication to me is that the commercialization was already encountering problems when the $20m was raised in Oct 2013.

Unless David Darling was just mouthing off - like Chris Swann with his 'let tens of thousands of tests blossom'. Or am I confusing him with Chairman Mao? :D

Gong xi fa cai :-)))

[Balance]

Gong xi fa cai :-)))

Or was it the 'Great Leap Forward' that Chris Swann was articulating? :D

[Dentie]

I have a real problem, Hancocks, as David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive. He did not expect to raise any more capital unless there was a pressing need to build another lab. As clear as a a cloudless blue sky on a summer's day.

Implication to me is that the commercialization was already encountering problems when the $20m was raised in Oct 2013.

Unless David Darling was just mouthing off - like Chris Swann with his 'let tens of thousands of tests blossom'. Or am I confusing him with Chairman Mao? :D

Lack of consistency in your comments here Balance ... one minute you say this ...


"Mr Darling says Pacific Edge is expected to be "cashflow positive" in the US within two years".

...and now you are saying this ...


"David Darling is on record as saying the $19m raised is sufficient to take PEB through to cash flow positive."

A big difference in meaning here.

For example, I wonder if the CEO of the NZ Super Fund (Adrian Orr) "expected" a loss of $200m when he invested in a Portugal bank (how long ago?). Isn't this one of the PIIG countries? Why didn't you warn us all about this potential loss?

...and, in a typical "stirring" manner ... you write this...


"Looking like 2 big sellers now competing to get out. The 80k to buy at 72c has been taken out."

...whereas I'm wondering who might be fighting to get in. If they were fighting to get out, they only need to hit the "on market" button.

I guess I'm a "glass half full" dude. Much more peaceful life than always looking at the "half empty glass".

I'll expect to raise an eyebrow when the real cornerstone investors start to divest.

[Dentie]

Friday October 19, 2012

(from the article) Mr. Darling says Pacific Edge is expected to be "cashflow positive" in the US within two years.

He should have clarified by adding: Of commencement of the commercial roll-out and after the lab has been commissioned and received CLIA registration; we cannot market anything until that is achieved. Our crystal ball (which I borrow from the Chairman on occasions) shows me that the lab will receive CLIA registration on the 18th March 2013 (6 months after this article) and the first commercial sale will be in October 2013 (12 months after this article).

(from the article) And it isn't expecting to go back to shareholders unless there is a pressing need to set up a lab in another country.

He should have clarified by adding: The US lab was completed only two days ago and we are still waiting to receive CLIA registration. However, our crystal ball doesn’t show any impediment to achieving our goals; we must remain flexible enough to address all contingencies that arise.

He should have also added. These comments are forward looking and are intended to be an indication of our intended pathway and potential progress.

I don't see any need to defend PEB on these points Hancocks.

As we know, it is very easy to poke a stick at someone/something from behind the safety of the parapet or some other dark place...

... but things are much easier to comprehend when you have been at the coal face and your hands have been as equally as dirty as those others at the coal face.

[Balance]

Friday October 19, 2012

(from the article) Mr. Darling says Pacific Edge is expected to be "cashflow positive" in the US within two years.

He should have clarified by adding: Of commencement of the commercial roll-out and after the lab has been commissioned and received CLIA registration; we cannot market anything until that is achieved. Our crystal ball (which I borrow from the Chairman on occasions) shows me that the lab will receive CLIA registration on the 18th March 2013 (6 months after this article) and the first commercial sale will be in October 2013 (12 months after this article).

(from the article) And it isn't expecting to go back to shareholders unless there is a pressing need to set up a lab in another country.

He should have clarified by adding: The US lab was completed only two days ago and we are still waiting to receive CLIA registration. However, our crystal ball doesn’t show any impediment to achieving our goals; we must remain flexible enough to address all contingencies that arise.

He should have also added. These comments are forward looking and are intended to be an indication of our intended pathway and potential progress.

Thanks for the 'clarifications' on behalf of Mr Darling, Hancocks.

What management of a company say and how they say about the business in the public arena are actionable - because they influence the market.

Especially when the company is enjoying a share run and is not covered by the main stream brokers - so it's mostly the 'Mum and Dad' type investors who are influenced.

The very bullish comments by Mr Darling and Mr Swann definitely contributed to the share spikes in 2012 - 2014, and they now need to deliver.

[Balance]

Lack of consistency in your comments here Balance ... one minute you say this ...

...and now you are saying this ...



A big difference in meaning here.

For example, I wonder if the CEO of the NZ Super Fund (Adrian Orr) "expected" a loss of $200m when he invested in a Portugal bank (how long ago?). Isn't this one of the PIIG countries? Why didn't you warn us all about this potential loss?

...and, in a typical "stirring" manner ... you write this...



...whereas I'm wondering who might be fighting to get in. If they were fighting to get out, they only need to hit the "on market" button.

I guess I'm a "glass half full" dude. Much more peaceful life than always looking at the "half empty glass".

I'll expect to raise an eyebrow when the real cornerstone investors start to divest.

Points of order, Dentie :

1. The comments are made by Mr Darling per the article linked - not me. The $19m was raised in July 2012. Anyone reading that article with an open mind is left with the impression Mr Darling is referring to the $19m and the two years to become 'cash flow' positive.

2. Whether sellers are fighting to get out or buyers are fighting to get in depends on the trend (down or up) of the trades. The trend in recent weeks has been ?

3. Cornerstone investors started divesting from 2013.

4. I am concerned here with PEB - what the CEO of NZ Super Fund or Treasury do have nothing to do with PEB. In any case if I was aware of the Super Fund putting money into a PIG bank, I would certainly have warned them against it. Just as I warned investors about Pike River, NZOG, Snakk etc.

Half glass full? Maybe you are referring to your spectacles? In which case, I think the right term to use is 'rose tinted'?

[skid]

I think in terms of the trend,that Balance has a valid point.(The fact that the last announcement ran the SP into the mid 90s,but failed to hold,supports this)

In terms of FA-I think Hancocks is pretty much spot on--We just dont know with the limited info we have at our disposal-(one of the reasons I sometimes react to some of Macs posts) We are left to fill the vacume with opinions and a search for any info that may influence where the co. is going-including me -(guilty as charged)
I think most agree the products are good--It seems crazy that it could possibly not be enough,but that is the question at this stage.(granted, we would know better if we had quarterlies[please David] )
Half full,half empty,take your choice--its all we have at the moment.(there are a number of reasons to be in either camp)

[Dentie]

Points of order, Dentie :

1. The comments are made by Mr Darling per the article linked - not me. The $19m was raised in July 2012. Anyone reading that article with an open mind is left with the impression Mr Darling is referring to the $19m and the two years to become 'cash flow' positive.

2. Whether sellers are fighting to get out or buyers are fighting to get in depends on the trend (down or up) of the trades. The trend in recent weeks has been ?

3. Cornerstone investors started divesting from 2013.

4. I am concerned here with PEB - what the CEO of NZ Super Fund or Treasury do have nothing to do with PEB. In any case if I was aware of the Super Fund putting money into a PIG bank, I would certainly have warned them against it. Just as I warned investors about Pike River, NZOG, Snakk etc.

Half glass full? Maybe you are referring to your spectacles? In which case, I think the right term to use is 'rose tinted'?

Points of reply Balance (at the risk of being picky):

1. You may have misinterpreted my point...I don't dispute DD said that ...I am saying there is a big difference between "is expected to" and "is sufficient to". To demonstrate...I "expect" to have $??? in my bank account by August 2015 (true statement BTW) - but that is not certain to happen because I can't control outside events. On the other hand, I am not that stupid to say I "will" have $??? in my bank account by August - for exactly the reason as above. The same applies to DD's statement!
2. Rubbish! Are you telling me when the uptrend was happening in Oct/Nov 13 there weren't sellers fighting to get out? I remember Snapiti was one such seller.
3. A mute point here Balance. A quick glance at the records tells me some may have sold a minute portion of their holdings (others may have been forced to?) ... but the main ones are all still there and some have actually increased their holdings.
4. Point taken.
5. Nope - just always preferred to look on the positive side of things.

[MAC]

I just see a very well structured marketing and commercialisation plan put in place by very smart hard working people, well articulated by Pacific Edge too, Edison and Forbar;

A series of commercial stepping stones, within which the revenue ramp up starts at a point when the company has hired sales staff, has product specific trained them, and they become active within their respective sales regions;

1. CLIA approval
2. US lab construction
3. Cxbladder(detect) product launch
4. NPN network provider agreements
5. KP demonstration user programme agreement
6. Hiring of initial sales force (12 staff)
7. Opening up of initial geographic sales regions
8. Large insurers commencing reimbursement
9. Commence LUG user programmes
10. Start of revenue ramp up <--- WE ARE HERE
11. Cxbladder(triage) product launch
12. Medicare coverage
13. Commencement of insurer contract agreements
14. KP demonstration user programme results
15. KP contract agreement
16. Profitability
17. Cxbladder(predict) product launch
18. Further HMO user programme initiated
19. Veterans Association coverage
20. Onward and upward to $100M revenues

[skid]

I just see a very well structured marketing and commercialisation plan put in place by very smart hard working people, well articulated by Pacific Edge too, Edison and Forbar;

A series of commercial stepping stones, within which the revenue ramp up starts at a point when the company has hired sales staff, has product specific trained them, and they become active within their respective sales regions;

1. CLIA approval
2. US lab construction
3. Cxbladder(detect) product launch
4. NPN network provider agreements
5. KP demonstration user programme agreement
6. Hiring of initial sales force (12 staff)
7. Opening up of initial geographic sales regions
8. Large insurers commencing reimbursement
9. Commence LUG user programmes
10. Start of revenue ramp up <--- WE ARE HERE
11. Cxbladder(triage) product launch
12. Medicare coverage
13. Commencement of insurer contract agreements
14. KP demonstration user programme results
15. KP contract agreement
16. Profitability
17. Cxbladder(predict) product launch
18. Further HMO user programme initiated
19. Veterans Association coverage
20. Onward and upward to $100M revenues

Could you please highlite the items you are guessing at

[skid]

Skid, that list of MAC's is pretty much how it is; what we don't have are the dates.

some of those things are not a given(are you sure about the contract agreements?) and unfortunately big delays in the dates can seriously affect #16 and #20

[Balance]

Points of reply Balance (at the risk of being picky):

1. You may have misinterpreted my point...I don't dispute DD said that ...I am saying there is a big difference between "is expected to" and "is sufficient to". To demonstrate...I "expect" to have $??? in my bank account by August 2015 (true statement BTW) - but that is not certain to happen because I can't control outside events. On the other hand, I am not that stupid to say I "will" have $??? in my bank account by August - for exactly the reason as above. The same applies to DD's statement!
2. Rubbish! Are you telling me when the uptrend was happening in Oct/Nov 13 there weren't sellers fighting to get out? I remember Snapiti was one such seller.
3. A mute point here Balance. A quick glance at the records tells me some may have sold a minute portion of their holdings (others may have been forced to?) ... but the main ones are all still there and some have actually increased their holdings.
4. Point taken.
5. Nope - just always preferred to look on the positive side of things.

1. So where's the contradiction? You are actually agreeing with my initial comments!

2. Sellers fighting to get out = downtrend. Buyers fighting to get in = uptrend.

3. Minute portion? You may want to recheck your numbers as mine show the Masfens and Harbour selling down rather substantially.

No need to blow a blood vessel - facts are facts, and opinions are opinions. Ultimately, time will prove an opinion right or wrong and then, the opinion can becomes a fact!

[MAC]

And extraordinarily undervalued Hancock’s, even by the most conservative of analysts, many may very well consider this time in the sequence as being the optimal point to accumulate at the bottom of the escalator given the dip investors have been blessed with.

The equation is one which has the key ingredients of success,

Good scientific and commercial management, best performing product within its target market, a disruptive technology, a first mover advantage, no serious competition within two years, an Obamacare DNA/RNA driven tailwind, a second product due to be launched any day now, lot’s more products coming, and a sales team just now on board.

Forsyth Barr: $1.25 BUY rating

Edision Research: $1.16 Edison Report Here (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=pacificedge290914outlook.pdf&first_name=%25%25Forename%25%25&last_name=%25%25Surname%25%25&company=%25%25Company%25%25&email=%25%25emailaddr%25%25)

Craig’s Investment Partners: had this to say after the last result;

“Craigs Investment Partners broker, Peter McIntyre, who predicted Pacific Edge had to deliver yesterday on revenue promises, said investors should be impressed with the result”

“He predicted Pacific Edge, if it continued its form, would be positively re-rated by brokers, analysts and ultimately investors in the months ahead”

[skid]

Yes...We heard you the first time,Mac.

The market is now saying the ball is in PEBs court now

[Balance]

Craig’s Investment Partners: had this to say after the last result;

“Craigs Investment Partners broker, Peter McIntyre, who predicted Pacific Edge had to deliver yesterday on revenue promises, said investors should be impressed with the result”

“He predicted Pacific Edge, if it continued its form, would be positively re-rated by brokers, analysts and ultimately investors in the months ahead”

Share price of PEB on 28 Nov 2014 when results were announced - 88c.

Months ahead (today) - 71c.

Minus 20% - if that is positive rerating, I dread what negative rerating is !!!!!

So what I mean by time making an opinion fact or fiction?

:D

[MAC]

And Hancock's, you're across this, are you able to advise us of how many sales regions are now operating compared with how many were operating this time last year before the sales team were established ?

[Schrodinger]

Share price of PEB on 28 Nov 2014 when results were announced - 88c.

Months ahead (today) - 71c.

Minus 20% - if that is positive rerating, I dread what negative rerating is !!!!!

So what I mean by time making an opinion fact or fiction?

:D

On current performance sub $0.50 stock

[dagoldtoof]

Time to buy some more if under 70c....This is such a good product, and it all takes time for it to sell itself...and then yearly multiply sales ...2016 will be PEB year...

[Bobcat.]

I'm back in @ 71c. RSI is under 20 and there's historical support at about 10% below this price. I'm prepared to lose up to 10% on this stock (worse case IMO) given the potential (and probable) upside.

[Dentie]

Share price of PEB on 28 Nov 2014 when results were announced - 88c.

Months ahead (today) - 71c.

Minus 20% - if that is positive rerating, I dread what negative rerating is !!!!!

So what I mean by time making an opinion fact or fiction?

:D

Absolutely nothing detrimental has happened - since HY results in November when the SP was 88c. You are correct Balance.

However, factual announcements have seen Superlife Trustee Nominees Ltd (a SSH) increase their holding as well as CX Bladder (Triage) getting launched.

Combine those with all the factual information and positive events still to happen posted by Hancocks and MAC and I would say PEB holders have every right to feel positive.

Notwithstanding this...the SP has dropped 20% (correct again Balance!).

So what does this tell me about Mr Market? Well, some S/H are always going to want to sell for one reason or another (like the Masfens wanting to enter a new venture etc) so that is self explanatory and understandable ... but other than that, based on having no "negative" factual information available - I would say Mr Market is not as intelligent as some would have us believe.

Of course, there are always those people who want to be investors but are either too lazy to do any research - or simply want to rely on what other perceived guru's say. And on their say so, these people start selling. They have no idea why they were in the stock in the first place, no idea about the company or market they operate in and consequently no idea why they hit the sell button. It is these uneducated & nervous "clowns" that create opportunities for the more informed amongst us because of the inefficient market they create. And I think that is where we are now.

SP Value - in this type of company - in its current market ... is just perceived. It just means the bounce will be even more pronounced later on.

[steve06]

when is PEB due for their next results announcement, end of Feb early March?

[barney]

so you believe the only reason the shares have moved lower is because the market is stupid.....I would say those sort of comments reflect more on you than the markets.
The real reason for the recent decline in share price is this share relies heavily on hype and spin to move the share price up......we have had little of this of late so the hyped up share price is bound to deflate.
But you can be sure we will have some hype and spin just prior to the next disappointing sales announcement.......more of a repetitive theme than a coincidence.

Was the force just too strong Snap ?

[Balance]

so you believe the only reason the shares have moved lower is because the market is stupid.....I would say those sort of comments reflect more on you than the markets.
The real reason for the recent decline in share price is this share relies heavily on hype and spin to move the share price up......we have had little of this of late so the hyped up share price is bound to deflate.
But you can be sure we will have some hype and spin just prior to the next disappointing sales announcement.......more of a repetitive theme than a coincidence.

Meanwhile as you and I know, the industry has not been standing still and there are adverse developments for PEB happening in the background.

[pierre]

when is PEB due for their next results announcement, end of Feb early March?

In the first few months of 2014 there were a number of announcements about various initiatives which excited the market, but no financial information was released until the full year results were published on 28 May.

I emailed the company this afternoon asking when PEB intended to provide an update to the market about sales, revenue and/or other developments. I'll post the reply when I receive it.

[Dentie]

so you believe the only reason the shares have moved lower is because the market is stupid.....I would say those sort of comments reflect more on you than the markets.
The real reason for the recent decline in share price is this share relies heavily on hype and spin to move the share price up......we have had little of this of late so the hyped up share price is bound to deflate.
But you can be sure we will have some hype and spin just prior to the next disappointing sales announcement.......more of a repetitive theme than a coincidence.

Hi Snapiti - sorry...should have been even more specific by saying "some elements of Mr Market...".

I did go on to mention about how the market was inefficient (due to these elements). You know as well as I do that if the market was efficient (ie - always perfectly priced), you and I would probably not be in the market because there most likely wouldn't be a market (ie no profit opportunities).

I agree the reason the share price moved up to the crazy levels was due to hype, spin and uneducated clowns with too much money on their hands. You would be thankful for that I'm sure as you made your escape. But I don't agree that the SP has deflated simply because of a lack of hype & spin either. As mentioned, there has been no negative facts announced since the HY report although there is on going negative opinions about all sorts of things on here. Given the volume selling, I think there is just a lot of nervous nellies being scared (manipulated?) out of their smallish share holdings .... all with the price drifting down and down and down....which of course, at the right time, will create another opportunity for the educated buyers (or is that traders?)

With no factual announcements from PEB themselves, why would someone sell until that happens? With the small volumes, why would they need the money? A share only turns into cash when one sells.....

By the way ... what is the antonym for hype? I think that is what is contributing to the drift downwards.....

[steve06]

In the first few months of 2014 there were a number of announcements about various initiatives which excited the market, but no financial information was released until the full year results were published on 28 May.

I emailed the company this afternoon asking when PEB intended to provide an update to the market about sales, revenue and/or other developments. I'll post the reply when I receive it.

That would be great thanks Pierre

[Dentie]

Meanwhile as you and I know, the industry has not been standing still and there are adverse developments for PEB happening in the background.

Do you think PEB have just been standing still while the industry has not been standing still? Do you think they are not aware of any competition?

The worst that can happen is PEB won't sell anything (out of their suite of products) and that better competition will arrive in their sandpit.

Have you lost interest in PEB and become Mr Doomsdayer because PEB are not going to hold a 100% monopoly anymore and no longer have the playing field to themselves?

Actually, given their accuracy, it will probably be easier for PEB to do their marketing when all their competitors start to launch their products.

[Minerbarejet]

By the way ... what is the antonym for hype? I think that is what is contributing to the drift downwards.....
Secrecy.
Plenty of that going on at the moment.
Patience

Nice little uptick, who did that?

[pierre]

Nice little uptick, who did that?

Not me but not unhappy that it happened. I'm sure there will be more to come despite all the prophets of doom on here. I'm on the right side of the ledger, holding over 300k shares and quietly confident that there will be a good result for PEB if not this year then certainly in 2016.

I've been well rewarded by being a patient long-term holder of many companies and am not about to jump out of PEB on the basis of all the angst that's being spouted by a few negative types on here.

We need more innovative NZ companies competing on the world stage and they need to be supported in their endeavours. That's why I'm also holding XRO and DIL and happy with both of those too. However, I can understand the unhappiness of those who leapt into the market at the crazy prices all three companies were selling at last year.

[Balance]

In the first few months of 2014 there were a number of announcements about various initiatives which excited the market, but no financial information was released until the full year results were published on 28 May.

I emailed the company this afternoon asking when PEB intended to provide an update to the market about sales, revenue and/or other developments. I'll post the reply when I receive it.

Hope you are not holding your breath - it will be late May before they release their full year results!

The track record of PEB is that they would have shouted from the roof top if their quarterly sales to December 2014 were up to expectations.

It's 20th of February and they have had the quarterly sales now for at least a month.

[Balance]

Do you think PEB have just been standing still while the industry has not been standing still? Do you think they are not aware of any competition?

The worst that can happen is PEB won't sell anything (out of their suite of products) and that better competition will arrive in their sandpit.

Have you lost interest in PEB and become Mr Doomsdayer because PEB are not going to hold a 100% monopoly anymore and no longer have the playing field to themselves?

Actually, given their accuracy, it will probably be easier for PEB to do their marketing when all their competitors start to launch their products.

You are starting to sound like some of the posters I encountered on Pike River and NZOG thread!

Scary!

[Absolute144]

I've been well rewarded by being a patient long-term holder of many companies....


Pierre, are you interested in VML stock?

[Minerbarejet]

Hope you are not holding your breath - it will be late May before they release their full year results!

The track record of PEB is that they would have shouted from the roof top if their quarterly sales to December 2014 were up to expectations.

It's 20th of February and they have had the quarterly sales now for at least a month.That is a massive assumption on your part.
PEB does not have a track record of quarterly reports.
And by the 28th of May they will have had them for several more months. So what!
At the risk of being sent to the sin bin again.
You cannot have it both ways
On the one hand you say there is a lot of hype and on the other you say they are not releasing information.
Then when they do release information it is hype and they are shouting from the rooftops.
Sorry, Balance, that will not do at all.
Did it occur to you that they may have seen some of these postings here and decided the best course of action is to shut up and not say anything given all the angst and regurgitated rubbish flying in their direction.
Did it also occur to you that some of your remarks could be construed as derogatory or even defamatory and there are avenues to pursue compensation. Hiding behind a nom-de-plume will not protect you, me old son.
Just sayin'.
Miner

[pierre]

Pierre, are you interested in VML stock?

I have investments in 25 NZ companies plus a number on the ASX but VML is not one of them. Why do you ask?

[Baa_Baa]

Sorry to divert from PEB, though I think it has relevance. From reliable sources, that's precisely what the VML board decided. (from below) "the best course of action is to".. (from VML) ignore it. Possibly PEB's board think that as well. The potential for defamation on the VML thread was even more acute than here, though the veneer of protection posting as a nom de plume is equally wafer thin, for the poster and for ST itself. Dumping with vehemence, here on ST, about a company and the people responsible for it, just diminishes the value of debate, lessens the influence of opinion here and clams up the communications from the company.

BAA


That is a massive assumption on your part.
PEB does not have a track record of quarterly reports.
And by the 28th of May they will have had them for several more months. So what!
At the risk of being sent to the sin bin again.
You cannot have it both ways
On the one hand you say there is a lot of hype and on the other you say they are not releasing information.
Then when they do release information it is hype and they are shouting from the rooftops.
Sorry, Balance, that will not do at all.
Did it occur to you that they may have seen some of these postings here and decided the best course of action is to shut up and not say anything given all the angst and regurgitated rubbish flying in their direction.
Did it also occur to you that some of your remarks could be construed as derogatory or even defamatory and there are avenues to pursue compensation. Hiding behind a nom-de-plume will not protect you, me old son.
Just sayin'.
Miner

[Dentie]

Now here is an interesting little snippet for you while we wait for some news - I have attached the map from the Capital Raising document of October 2013 in which Pacific Edge identified the proposed targeted sales territories (how long ago is that? about 16 months ....) I have edited it so that each circle is an identifiable marketing person.

7100........................7101

I have identified another state covered by an Account Executive of which there are now 12. There are still two that I cannot identify where they are operating, but I do know their start dates.

I have attached an image showing how Pacific Edge Diagnostics (USA) have increased the number of account executives to (12) in 2013 & 2014. The image also shows the ramp up of Pacific Edge Limited (NZ) staff to support the development and commercialisation.

I cannot comment any further on the uptake of the test; or, the transition from 'User Program' to commercial agreement, because we do not have that information and any prediction would be totally uniformed and irresponsible. And that comment applies equally to both sides of the argument.

7103

Of the states where we do know that Pacific Edge Diagnostics have a presence (coloured red) the figures are very interesting. According to the Urology Register there are 11,396 practicing clinicians. The states where Pacific Edge Account Executives have been identified as operating in (two are unidentified as yet) numbers 6 and covers a total of 3,421 urologists or 30% of American Urologists.

This figure could be more because of the two unidentified Account Executives; however, we will park that for the moment; it is a moot point - I think though that this is a really smart allocation of resources. And confirms that the marketing research that Pacific Edge had undertaken and published in the Capital Raising document 2013 is being delivered to share holders.

Keep in mind too that the total number of Urologists in Australasia (NZ & Aust) is ~300

7104

Now, here is an image showing the start dates of the Account Executives and the vertical red lines show the financial periods - the green squares are training and area introduction periods so wouldn't contribute to "Marketing Time". As can be seen by the graphic, March 2014 USA revenues were $95,000 and achieved with two Account Executives for a total of 10 selling months (5 months each). September 2015 USA revenues were $474,000 and achieved with 8 Account Executives for a total of 21 selling months. The March 2015 revenues will be achieved using 12 Account Executives for a total of 74 sales months.

7099

In summary, I think that Pacific Edge have certainly ramped up the number of Account Executives and the commercialisation support. They have a great product that is streets ahead of the competition and they are marketing it very intelligently indeed.

CxBladder is a truly disruptive technology because Urine Cytology partnered with Cystoscopy has been the gold standard for a couple of decades. This technology will change the way clinicians diagnose urothelial cancers - however, Pacific Edge identified early that there was a pre-purchase dissonance with urologists; meaning that they would rather wait until it is all proven and included in the clinical pathways. To counter this, Pacific Edge introduced the 'User Program' whereby Pacific Edge would work with urologists to identify the value proposition that best suited their practice and run their tests through the lab. This allows the urologist to test drive the test in a hands on situation and by all accounts they are being very successful. We will see how these 'User Programs' are being turned into commercial agreements when the next report is released. Can anyone realistically predict what is going on? I personally do not think so.

This is as a concise and accurate a picture as one can get on "relevant info to date" for PEB. They are simply going about "executing their business plan" in a methodical way. If I was a new investor, looking for a new company to invest in, this post would go a long way to securing my money (after I had double checked of course..;)).

As usual Hancocks - an excellent summation and illustration of the Facts. Thank you for taking the time.

[Balance]

That is a massive assumption on your part.
PEB does not have a track record of quarterly reports.
And by the 28th of May they will have had them for several more months. So what!
At the risk of being sent to the sin bin again.
You cannot have it both ways
On the one hand you say there is a lot of hype and on the other you say they are not releasing information.
Then when they do release information it is hype and they are shouting from the rooftops.
Sorry, Balance, that will not do at all.
Did it occur to you that they may have seen some of these postings here and decided the best course of action is to shut up and not say anything given all the angst and regurgitated rubbish flying in their direction.
Did it also occur to you that some of your remarks could be construed as derogatory or even defamatory and there are avenues to pursue compensation. Hiding behind a nom-de-plume will not protect you, me old son.
Just sayin'.
Miner

Thanks for your concern, Miner.

Let's take a breather here and review, shall we?

Any company which lists on the NZX, NZAX, ASX or any exchange do so with the primary intention of facilitating the flow of capital :

1. Raising new capital

2. Allowing major shareholders freeing up their capital by selling shares

3. Liquidity - shareholders buying or selling shares.

A public listing also means getting profile and interacting with the market.

The company and its management can expect to be scrutinized very closely by the market. That is the essence of the quid pro quo relationship between a listed entity and the market.

More so in the case of a company like PEB which has been churning out the 'good' news - resulting in the company enjoying spectacular share price appreciation, enabling it to raise new capital ($40m in the last 2 years) and allowed some major shareholders and management to realize huge gains.

People like me will hold the company to account to provide follow up and evidence of the good news - how are they measuring up against the expectations, forecasts, statements, utterances etc they have made to the market. It is in the nature of all companies that they will play up the 'good' news and downplay (or even skirt) the bad news.

You will note care is taken to refer to what PEB and management have stated, said, presented etc before I give my opinion.

If the company and its management cannot stand up to scrutiny and are thin-skinned, then it is their right to bring action against me and I have my QC ready to take them on - that's life. The question for them is how they will stand up to my scrutiny in court. And that applies to all posters posting here - are they ready to fight the good fight with companies and their management when they post here.

And yes, it is highly likely that PEB (and some other companies, especially the smaller ones) reads ST and the postings here. And yes, I suspect that some of them probably plant postings here as well via various means - eg. having posters of their own.

Hope that clarifies the situation.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the lovely weather!

[skid]

If I was a new investor, looking for a new company to invest in, this post would go a long way to securing my money (after I had double checked of course.. Quote..

Skating on pretty thin ice there Dents,trying to convince newbies to throw in their money(Is that what this thread is all about?)--Did you read the last few lines of Hancocks post?

Im surprised you even gave it a go ,given the fact that, with all the banter in the last week on here,there has been no noticeable influence on the SP

[skid]

Thanks for your concern, Miner.

Let's take a breather here and review, shall we?

Any company which lists on the NZX, NZAX, ASX or any exchange do so with the primary intention of facilitating the flow of capital :

1. Raising new capital

2. Allowing major shareholders freeing up their capital by selling shares

3. Liquidity - shareholders buying or selling shares.

A public listing also means getting profile and interacting with the market.

The company and its management can expect to be scrutinized very closely by the market. That is the essence of the quid pro quo relationship between a listed entity and the market.

More so in the case of a company like PEB which has been churning out the 'good' news - resulting in the company enjoying spectacular share price appreciation, enabling it to raise new capital ($40m in the last 2 years) and allowed some major shareholders and management to realize huge gains.

People like me will hold the company to account to provide follow up and evidence of the good news - how are they measuring up against the expectations, forecasts, statements, utterances etc they have made to the market. It is in the nature of all companies that they will play up the 'good' news and downplay (or even skirt) the bad news.

You will note care is taken to refer to what PEB and management have stated, said, presented etc before I give my opinion.

If the company and its management cannot stand up to scrutiny and are thin-skinned, then it is their right to bring action against me and I have my QC ready to take them on - that's life. The question for them is how they will stand up to my scrutiny in court. And that applies to all posters posting here - are they ready to fight the good fight with companies and their management when they post here.

And yes, it is highly likely that PEB (and some other companies, especially the smaller ones) reads ST and the postings here. And yes, I suspect that some of them probably plant postings here as well via various means - eg. having posters of their own.

Hope that clarifies the situation.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the lovely weather!

Ive often wondered about the ''planting postings'' thing---suppose its impossible to know for sure.

[AndyLP]

Hi Snapiti, would love to see you post the NMP22 sales graph and identify the source.

Here's mine:
With 3.2m revenues this year PEB is around 6 years ahead of Matritech.

7107

[skid]

Thanks Andy--Its interesting how their sales increased in the 2nd year and then dropped away--were you following them back in the day?

[skid]

Cheers....:)

[AndyLP]

skid - not following back in the day, just compiled the numbers recently. sources were:
thebusinesswire.com, thefreelibrary.com

Snap, NMP22 got FDA approval in '96. Did Matritech wait a bit? Why was that

"NEWTON, Mass., July 8, 1996 -- Matritech Inc. (Nasdaq: NMPS; BSE: MPS) announced today that the company's Matritech NMP22(R) Test Kit has been approved for sale in the U.S. by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for use in identifying patients at risk for recurrence of bladder cancer.."
http://www.docguide.com/matritechs-nmp22-bladder-cancer-test-approved-fda?tsid=5

[AndyLP]

Ah I see, might see if I can find some info on that if I get a chance.

Silicon Investor was a good read for the message boards. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsgs.aspx?subjectid=3344&msgnum=100&batchsize=10&batchtype=Previous

[AndyLP]

you truely are a legend....
I do remember that they were concertinaing on Europe 1996-2000 as they considered the market easier to break into.

From a 1998 article with the president of maritech


In Europe we've been selling it for about a year-and-a-half and we've enjoyed sales through distributors in Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy and are about to sign deals in France and the U.K.


Our objective is to get the thought leaders in urology to use the test, so that we could enjoy that kind of market size in 10-years. Our strategy has been to persuade urologists at such leading centers as Kaiser, The Cleveland Clinic, Johns Hopkins, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston Medical Center, and a number of the Veterans Administration Hospitals, to use the test this will influence their peers to consider the use of the test as well. It is also noteworthy that the test has been approved not only for the monitoring of bladder cancer patients, but also for screening individuals in Japan.


Looks like PEB are trying nothing knew.


yup those boards are a nice look at sentiment!
I'm not so sure they held off the US market eh. Perhaps they held off selling directly. But looks like they were definitely signing deals to distribute the product in the US back in '99. From the S-3 form back then:


WE DEPEND ON DISTRIBUTORSWe have limited internal marketing and sales resources and personnel. We derive a significant portion of our sales revenue from distribution agreements with two distributors. Konica Corporation has an exclusive right to sell our NMP22 Bladder Cancer Test Kit in Japan. Fisher Diagnostics has a co-exclusive right with us to sell our NMP22 Bladder Cancer Test Kit to hospitals and commercial laboratories in the United States.

Anyways, if that's the case - Pacific Edge would seem to be 'ahead of the curve' wouldn't you agree? Next few announcements will be telling

[MAC]

Apologies for shooting down all your appreciated efforts in a single post.

NMP22 established a capped market with 10 year old tech and with only a single value proposition, it only has a single value proposition because it’s performance is so greatly inferior than that of Cytology. Unfortunate for them, yet they have still prospered within their single limited capped market.

Cxbladder(detect) has up to 10 value propositions because it is the first product to come along that has performance superior to Cytology and has thus opened up many many more new applications and benefits for clinicians.

The market for Cxbladder(detect) is many times over greater than that which NMP22 could ever have been, ten years ago or today, that’s not to say that Pacific Edge will not take their humble capped market off them also though.

A comparison does though serve really very well to highlight just how far ahead Pacific Edge are and just how prosperous they can be compared to Matritech.

:)

A table paints a thousand words, but in summary well, yawn again, <insert nodding off here>

7108

[skid]

i dont think they were saying NMP22 was better than CX--They were concerned that CX was still only tracking a similar sales curve--They should be doing alot better shouldnt they? Especially if the market is that much greater.

[MAC]

Not really, it’s just now the beginning,

1. CLIA approval
2. US lab construction
3. Cxbladder(detect) product launch
4. NPN network provider agreements
5. KP demonstration user programme agreement
6. Hiring of initial sales force (12 staff)
7. Opening up of initial geographic sales regions
8. Large insurers commencing reimbursement
9. Commence LUG user programmes
10. Start of revenue ramp up <--- WE ARE HERE
11. Cxbladder(triage) product launch
12. Medicare coverage
13. Commencement of insurer contract agreements
14. KP demonstration user programme results
15. KP contract agreement
16. Profitability
17. Cxbladder(predict) product launch
18. Further HMO user programme initiated
19. Veterans Association coverage
20. Onward and upward to $100M revenues

[skid]

yup those boards are a nice look at sentiment!
I'm not so sure they held off the US market eh. Perhaps they held off selling directly. But looks like they were definitely signing deals to distribute the product in the US back in '99. From the S-3 form back then:


WE DEPEND ON DISTRIBUTORSWe have limited internal marketing and sales resources and personnel. We derive a significant portion of our sales revenue from distribution agreements with two distributors. Konica Corporation has an exclusive right to sell our NMP22 Bladder Cancer Test Kit in Japan. Fisher Diagnostics has a co-exclusive right with us to sell our NMP22 Bladder Cancer Test Kit to hospitals and commercial laboratories in the United States.

Anyways, if that's the case - Pacific Edge would seem to be 'ahead of the curve' wouldn't you agree? Next few announcements will be telling

The next few announcement will certainly be telling --(Or maybe Pierre will get an email reply)

[Dentie]

More so in the case of a company like PEB which has been churning out the 'good' news - resulting in the company enjoying spectacular share price appreciation, enabling it to raise new capital ($40m in the last 2 years) and allowed some major shareholders and management to realize huge gains.

People like me will hold the company to account to provide follow up and evidence of the [...] statements, utterances etc they have made to the market.

You will note care is taken to refer to what PEB and management have stated, said, presented etc before I give my opinion.

If the company and its management cannot stand up to scrutiny and are thin-skinned, then it is their right to bring action against me and I have my QC ready to take them on.

The question for them is how they will stand up to my scrutiny in court.

1. There was also some huge gains made for shareholders who were NOT major shareholders...

2. I didn't notice you ask any of your "scrutiny" or "holding to account" type queries raised at the last AGM ... or do you only do it on ST type forums?

3. Sorry, but I don't necessarily agree that "care is taken" to what PEB management state before you give your opinion...

4. Why bother retaining a QC "at the ready" - especially if you take care with your utterances? Surely a bread & butter Barrister on an "as required" basis would suffice ... a lot cheaper too I'd expect? Sounds like you may need them often?

[skid]

Well I had a bit of time on my hands--its raining so I decided to go back about 14 months ago on this thread and started reading just to try and get some perspective....should be required reading......alot of the same players around back then...and there are some classic statements!

For those new folks who take the time--you will come back with a new appreciation of things around this neck of the woods.

[Absolute144]

I have investments in 25 NZ companies plus a number on the ASX but VML is not one of them. Why do you ask?

The statement you made just seemed to ring true. And I was considering some more VML, expecting I would have to wait patiently for any payoff.

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for your concern, Miner.

Let's take a breather here and review, shall we?

Any company which lists on the NZX, NZAX, ASX or any exchange do so with the primary intention of facilitating the flow of capital :

1. Raising new capital

2. Allowing major shareholders freeing up their capital by selling shares

3. Liquidity - shareholders buying or selling shares.

A public listing also means getting profile and interacting with the market.

The company and its management can expect to be scrutinized very closely by the market. That is the essence of the quid pro quo relationship between a listed entity and the market.

More so in the case of a company like PEB which has been churning out the 'good' news - resulting in the company enjoying spectacular share price appreciation, enabling it to raise new capital ($40m in the last 2 years) and allowed some major shareholders and management to realize huge gains.

People like me will hold the company to account to provide follow up and evidence of the good news - how are they measuring up against the expectations, forecasts, statements, utterances etc they have made to the market. It is in the nature of all companies that they will play up the 'good' news and downplay (or even skirt) the bad news.

You will note care is taken to refer to what PEB and management have stated, said, presented etc before I give my opinion.

If the company and its management cannot stand up to scrutiny and are thin-skinned, then it is their right to bring action against me and I have my QC ready to take them on - that's life. The question for them is how they will stand up to my scrutiny in court. And that applies to all posters posting here - are they ready to fight the good fight with companies and their management when they post here.

And yes, it is highly likely that PEB (and some other companies, especially the smaller ones) reads ST and the postings here. And yes, I suspect that some of them probably plant postings here as well via various means - eg. having posters of their own.

Hope that clarifies the situation.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the lovely weather!
This is a brilliant piece of tongue in cheek humour, Balance.
The icing was the QC followed closely by the conspiracy theory at the end.
Well done.
Miner

[craic]

I have a friend who is a QC and i'm sure I could call on him if the need arose but I am not silly enough to waste money on this company. As I said before, the value of any company is in inverse poportion to the number of posts on this forum and this one is in a lemming like race to the cliff with WDT. I come onto this thread just for the amusement of knowing that, while I can be a fool too often for my own liking, ther are others who spend a lot mre time in that codition than I do. Today's a good day - I made $40 on the horses yesterday and got two lines on my Lotto ticket for a total of $66.

[Balance]

I think the number of posts on any thread reflect the interest in that particular issue or share.

Pacific Edge has an inordinate number of responses because we have two factions. One wants to post information and discuss the company and products; the other, and predominant faction posts copious amount of supercilious crap.

That's on the record now so it cannot be deleted.

[Crystal Ball]

That's on the record now so it cannot be deleted.
Indeed, and Hancocks has eloquently hit the nail on the head here with his comments.....

[Balance]

I' m with you NBT, we can all block those that we find offensive and annoying, it is quite useful to read all the pros and cons, even if it does tend to descend into personal attracks from time to time. Eventually the assailant backs off.......and probably re reading their posts later on,realises what a dork they have been!

For the record.

[Balance]

Indeed, and Hancocks has eloquently hit the nail on the head here with his comments.....

For the record.

[MAC]

The threads back due to popular request as I understand, I was content to have some peace and quiet to be honest, powers that be are probably watching though, protagonistic relentless mindless dribble might be at ones peril I suspect.

How about maturity, research, facts, and well referenced constructive input, or is that a consistent impossibility ?

[couta1]

I have a friend who is a QC and i'm sure I could call on him if the need arose but I am not silly enough to waste money on this company. As I said before, the value of any company is in inverse poportion to the number of posts on this forum and this one is in a lemming like race to the cliff with WDT. I come onto this thread just for the amusement of knowing that, while I can be a fool too often for my own liking, ther are others who spend a lot mre time in that codition than I do. Today's a good day - I made $40 on the horses yesterday and got two lines on my Lotto ticket for a total of $66.
I often like your posts but this one is uneducated dribble apart from the line about your winnings.

[Minerbarejet]

Not really, it’s just now the beginning,

1. CLIA approval
2. US lab construction
3. Cxbladder(detect) product launch
4. NPN network provider agreements
5. KP demonstration user programme agreement
6. Hiring of initial sales force (12 staff)
7. Opening up of initial geographic sales regions
8. Large insurers commencing reimbursement
9. Commence LUG user programmes
10. Start of revenue ramp up <--- WE ARE HERE
11. Cxbladder(triage) product launch
12. Medicare coverage
13. Commencement of insurer contract agreements
14. KP demonstration user programme results
15. KP contract agreement
16. Profitability
17. Cxbladder(predict) product launch
18. Further HMO user programme initiated
19. Veterans Association coverage
20. Onward and upward to $100M revenuesPerhaps this excellent summary of MAC's could be made a sticky at the start of the thread to serve as a guideline for any future input. It could be added to as things develop. Any posts not containing some reference to the above subjects, be it for or against, could be removed.

One that could be added is the reannouncement of the retracted cxbladder patent for Europe, should be due very soon. It was stated it would be awarded in February, I think.

[Crystal Ball]

And posts such as this now get you banned for at least a couple of days.

STMOD
Ok all, the bar has been set, let's all stick to it and there should be no more problems, k?

[pierre]

And posts such as this now get you banned for at least a couple of days.

STMOD

I'm heartily sick of all the personal crap that's been going down (and I'm sure others are too) so can I suggest the "terms of trade" be published somewhere on the website and be made quite explicit e.g.

1st offence: A Warning
2nd offence: Banned for a week
Next offence after 1st ban: Siberia forever

Maybe that might ensure the content remains a little more sanitary - though I hope it wont disallow some of the humour that we all need to keep us sane.

[MAC]

Anyway back to Pacific Edge,

Thanks Hancock’s for posting the regional sales coverage, the comparison with this time last year shows good traction leading up to the end of the 31 March reporting season.

Six times as many sales staff may not translate to six times sales but there seems every reason to anticipate the start of the sales ramp up is well underway now.

Onward, forward and upward.

7113

[Whipmoney]

Anyway back to Pacific Edge,

Thanks Hancock’s for posting the regional sales coverage, the comparison with this time last year shows good traction leading up to the end of the 31 March reporting season.

Six times as many sales staff may not translate to six times sales but there seems every reason to anticipate the start of the sales ramp up is well underway now.

Onward, forward and upward.



Actually with six times more staff I would hope that this would translate into a lot more than a 6x growth factor in sales, as product awareness would spread significantly quicker.

Looking at comparable company's the sales uptake is exponential in the first few years. Here's an example from a similar company in their space, i.e. cancer diagnostics (non-competing product):

Year 1 - 440 tests - Revenue $327k
Year 2 - 7000 tests - Revenue $4.823m
Year 3 - 14,500 tests - Revenue $27.006m
Year 4 - 24,450 tests - Revenue $62.745m
Year 5 - 39,640 tests - Revenue $108.658m
Year 6 - 49,030 tests - Revenue $146.581m
--- ---- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Year 10 - 85,510 tests - Revenue: $259.192m - Market Cap $825m USD.

[MAC]

Would be a pleasant thing Whipmoney for the company and patient shareholders after a few years of following all the good R&D to be rewarded like that.

Pacific Edge explained that it was a seven month process for the NPN’s to start reimbursement, which probably in all practicality marked the kick off whistle blow within FY15 year. Probably makes FY15 more like year one in that comparison.

Still though, analyst consensus for all that is for FY15 revenues of $3.2M, roughly equivalent to about 5,800 sales, have to sit tight and wait for the results now I guess.

[Schrodinger]

Actually with six times more staff I would hope that this would translate into a lot more than a 6x growth factor in sales, as product awareness would spread significantly quicker.

Looking at comparable company's the sales uptake is exponential in the first few years. Here's an example from a similar company in their space, i.e. cancer diagnostics (non-competing product):

Year 1 - 440 tests - Revenue $327k
Year 2 - 7000 tests - Revenue $4.823m
Year 3 - 14,500 tests - Revenue $27.006m
Year 4 - 24,450 tests - Revenue $62.745m
Year 5 - 39,640 tests - Revenue $108.658m
Year 6 - 49,030 tests - Revenue $146.581m
--- ---- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Year 10 - 85,510 tests - Revenue: $259.192m - Market Cap $825m USD.

Now that is a hockey stick. If PEB does that it will be impressive.

[skid]

I often like your posts but this one is uneducated dribble apart from the line about your winnings.

Man! your on a roll couts:)

[skid]

Well folks--If there is anyone who feel they missed out on going back 14months and reading what has actually happened and what was predicted and by whom--now is your chance---i can assure you --it is an eye opener--This is reality==what has actually happened (and said) in what has led us up to where we are now.(Its very easy to skim over the bits that have gotten sidetracked)

[skid]

Perhaps this excellent summary of MAC's could be made a sticky at the start of the thread to serve as a guideline for any future input. It could be added to as things develop. Any posts not containing some reference to the above subjects, be it for or against, could be removed.

One that could be added is the reannouncement of the retracted cxbladder patent for Europe, should be due very soon. It was stated it would be awarded in February, I think.

Sorry -I dont agree as some may think all these things have actually happened--which is not the case--perhaps a distinction between what is the goal, and what has successfully happened would be more realistic.

[Beagle]

whether PEB are successful in their endeavors or not one thing is for sure in ten years time people won't be able to comprehend that for decades we used cystoscopy as the only/main way to detect bladder cancer......... I can see our kids saying "you did what to where to test for that cancer".:)

Any way you slice and dice this thing, if you'll excuse the expression, its hard to beat the eyesight of a skilled oncologist but speaking from personal experience :eek2: its not a lot of fun especially when she's a lady and there was a trainee female student nurse observing, phew that was my humble pie for 2014 lol. (Just thought I'd post to lighten the mood)...I really have no idea if this company will be successful and doubt anyone else does for sure...best to call it as "highly speculative" and only make it a very modest part of a very well diversified portfolio, my 2 cents. That's definitely less than 5% portfolio allocation in my opinion, if anyone's interested.

[skid]

Any way you slice and dice this thing, if you'll excuse the expression, its hard to beat the eyesight of a skilled oncologist but speaking from personal experience :eek2: its not a lot of fun especially when she's a lady and there was a trainee female student nurse observing, phew that was my humble pie for 2014 lol. (Just thought I'd post to lighten the mood)...I really have no idea if this company will be successful and doubt anyone else does for sure...best to call it as "highly speculative" and only make it a very modest part of a very well diversified portfolio, my 2 cents. That's definitely less than 5% portfolio allocation in my opinion, if anyone's interested.

Good advice Roger--We all want this test to be around(we may need it) but we must also keep our feet on the ground.

A safer option is to wait until things turn the corner and join the uptrend if it comes or ,if you want to join the higher stakes game atm-just be aware of the greater risk attached. I believe the previous ''stick post suggestion'' does not take this into account.

[Minerbarejet]

Sorry -I dont agree as some may think all these things have actually happened--which is not the case--perhaps a distinction between what is the goal, and what has successfully happened would be more realistic.
Items 1 to 10 have already occurred. It then says We are here. The remainder are goals.

[Minerbarejet]

Any way you slice and dice this thing, if you'll excuse the expression, its hard to beat the eyesight of a skilled oncologist but speaking from personal experience :eek2: its not a lot of fun especially when she's a lady and there was a trainee female student nurse observing, phew that was my humble pie for 2014 lol. (Just thought I'd post to lighten the mood)...I really have no idea if this company will be successful and doubt anyone else does for sure...best to call it as "highly speculative" and only make it a very modest part of a very well diversified portfolio, my 2 cents. That's definitely less than 5% portfolio allocation in my opinion, if anyone's interested.
Cxbladder:

Outperformed comparative tests as an adjunct to cystoscopy.
Has a negative predictive value (NPV) of 97%.
Detected 100% of T1-T3, Tis and upper tract tumours.
Detected 97% of high-grade tumours.
Detected 68% of Ta tumours as compared to cytology at 35%.
Distinguished between low grade Ta tumours and other detected urothelial carcinomas with a sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 90%
Robust to BPH, cystitis/UTI, haematuria secondary to warfarin, prostatitis and urolithiasis.
Detected six urothelial carcinoma not identified by cystoscopy during the clinical work-up but confirmed at the 12 month follow-up:

1 x T2 single renal pelvis.
1 x Unk multiple high grade bladder tumours.
1 x T2 single high grade bladder tumour.
3 x Renal pelvic / distal uteric tumours (detected by CT; not path confirmed).


Has a overall sensitivity of 82% at 85% specificity

[skid]

Normally ''ramp up'' is a term used to describe production rather than income.so perhaps after dropping that term it would be clearer to make the stuff after ''We are here'' in a different color (to be changed when they come to pass)--In terms of revenue--you could put a point on the graph of the growth curve with date and the goal(100mil)

In terms of the above(post)--Im sure the sales will tell the story on the result of those factors.(the numbers will tell the story)

[stoploss]

technology moving very fast in cancer detection ...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2964446/Pill-help-tell-CANCER-Scientists-hope-drug-allow-blood-tests-replace-painful-biopsies.html

[MAC]

7115
__________________________________________________ _____

[Snow Leopard]

Sometime ago somewhere on this forum I made the statement that the PPV (Positive Predictive Value) of 74% for the CxBladder clinical study as claimed by PEB in their little video was wrong.

I got a bit of flak along the lines of the smart cookies at Pacific Edge knew what they were doing and thus I was wrong.

Anyway I notice we have a new video (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/). It claims a different PPV, 68% this time.

I say this is still significantly wrong.

So watch the video, enjoy the marketing spin and note the figures.

Then crunch the numbers and tell me if can get them to add up.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Does the CxBladder Triage (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/about-cxbladder/cxbladder-triage/) webpage lack any detail whatsoever when you look at it?

[AndyLP]

Sometime ago somewhere on this forum I made the statement that the PPV (Positive Predictive Value) of 74% for the CxBladder clinical study as claimed by PEB in their little video was wrong.

I got a bit of flak along the lines of the smart cookies at Pacific Edge knew what they were doing and thus I was wrong.

Anyway I notice we have a new video (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/). It claims a different PPV, 68% this time.

I say this is still significantly wrong.

So watch the video, enjoy the marketing spin and note the figures.

Then crunch the numbers and tell me if can get them to add up.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Does the CxBladder Triage (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/about-cxbladder/cxbladder-triage/) webpage lack any detail whatsoever when you look at it?

The CxBladder Triage page probably not working for you because you're not in NZ or the US. Try a VPN like hola and the info magically appears.

[Snow Leopard]

The CxBladder Triage page probably not working for you because you're not in NZ or the US. Try a VPN like hola and the info magically appears.

Thank you for that.

Do you want to take a crack at the first part of the assignment as well? :)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Whipmoney]

Those numbers look weird. For example, tests double between years 2 and 3, but revenues grow 6-fold. Some dodgy maths in there...

The math is correct and the raw data was extrapolated from quarterly SEC filings from a Nasdaq listed biotech co.

The revenues in my table are solely product revenues, as there were some additional revenues (presumably grants and the like), and this particular company in question seemed happy to disclose their annual test numbers so I can only presume that the variable in question is their pricing.

Potentially as the test gained more commercial/market recognition they were able to negotiate more favourable pricing.

Assuming that the test/revenue numbers are correct then their test price increased as follows:

Y1 - $689
Y2 - $1,862
Y3 - $2,566
Y4 - $2,741
Y5 - $2,990
Y6 - $3,053
Y7 - $3,103
Y8 - $3,133

I know you're a finance guy so I would have thought you would have picked that up ;)

[Absolute144]

Sometime ago somewhere on this forum I made the statement that the PPV (Positive Predictive Value) of 74% for the CxBladder clinical study as claimed by PEB in their little video was wrong.

I got a bit of flak along the lines of the smart cookies at Pacific Edge knew what they were doing and thus I was wrong.

Anyway I notice we have a new video (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/). It claims a different PPV, 68% this time.

I say this is still significantly wrong.

So watch the video, enjoy the marketing spin and note the figures.

Then crunch the numbers and tell me if can get them to add up.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Does the CxBladder Triage (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/about-cxbladder/cxbladder-triage/) webpage lack any detail whatsoever when you look at it?


Those webpages were last updated 16 July 2014

[Absolute144]

Those webpages were last updated 16 July 2014

And only 56 page views in 5 months. in fact , all 6 of their videos have only about 1100 combined views on their youtube channel. Nobody seems to be watching...

[Minerbarejet]

Sometime ago somewhere on this forum I made the statement that the PPV (Positive Predictive Value) of 74% for the CxBladder clinical study as claimed by PEB in their little video was wrong.

I got a bit of flak along the lines of the smart cookies at Pacific Edge knew what they were doing and thus I was wrong.

Anyway I notice we have a new video (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/). It claims a different PPV, 68% this time.

I say this is still significantly wrong.

So watch the video, enjoy the marketing spin and note the figures.

Then crunch the numbers and tell me if can get them to add up.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Does the CxBladder Triage (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/about-cxbladder/cxbladder-triage/) webpage lack any detail whatsoever when you look at it?To assist those interested.
10.3 - Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive Predictive Value, and Negative Predictive Value

https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat507/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat507/files/lesson06/table_01.pngIn this example, two columns indicate the actual condition of the subjects, diseased or non-diseased. The rows indicate the results of the test, positive or negative.
Cell A contains true positives, subjects with the disease and positive test results. Cell D subjects do not have the disease and the test agrees.
A good test will have minimal numbers in cells B and C. Cell B identifies individuals without disease but for whom the test indicates 'disease'. These are false positives. Cell C has the false negatives.
If these results are from a population-based study, prevalence can be calculated as follows:


Prevalence of Disease= Tdisease/ Total × 100

The population used for the study influences the prevalence calculation.
Sensitivity is the probability that a test will indicate 'disease' among those with the disease:


Sensitivity: A/(A+C) × 100

Specificity is the fraction of those without disease who will have a negative test result:


Specificity: D/(D+B) × 100

Sensitivity and specificity are characteristics of the test. The population does not affect the results.
A clinician and a patient have a different question: what is the chance that a person with a positive test truly has the disease? If the subject is in the first row in the table above, what is the probability of being in cell A as compared to cell B? A clinician calculates across the row as follows:


Positive Predictive Value: A/(A+B) × 100
Negative Predictive Value: D/(D+C) × 100

Positive and negative predictive values are influenced by the prevalence of disease in the population that is being tested. If we test in a high prevalence setting, it is more likely that persons who test positive truly have disease than if the test is performed in a population with low prevalence..
Let's see how this works out with some numbers...
Hypothetical Example 1 - Screening Test A

https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat507/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat507/files/lesson06/table_02.png100 people are tested for disease. 15 people have the disease; 85 people are not diseased. So, prevalence is 15%:


Prevalence of Disease:
Tdisease/ Total × 100,
15/100 × 100 = 15%

Sensitivity is two-thirds, so the test is able to detect two-thirds of the people with disease. The test misses one-third of the people who have disease.


Sensitivity:
A/(A + C) × 100
10/15 × 100 = 67%

The test has 53% specificity. In other words, 45 persons out of 85 persons with negative results are truly negative and 40 individuals test positive for a disease which they do not have.


Specificity:
D/(D + B) × 100
45/85 × 100 = 53%

The sensivity and specificity are characteristics of this test. For a clinician, however, the important fact is among the people who test positive, only 20% actually have the disease.


Positive Predictive Value:
A/(A + B) × 100
10/50 × 100 = 20%

For those that test negative, 90% do not have the disease.


Negative Predictive Value:
D/(D + C) × 100
45/50 × 100 = 90%

Now, let's change the prevalence..
Hypothetical Example 2 - Increased Prevalence, Same Test

This time we use the same test, but in a different population, a disease prevalence of 30%.


https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat507/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat507/files/lesson06/table_03.pngPrevalence of Disease:
Tdisease/ Total × 10
30/100 × 100 = 30%

We maintain the same sensitivity and specificity because these are characteristic of this test.


Sensitivity:
A/(A + C) × 100
20/30 × 100 = 67%



Specificity:
D/(D + B) × 100
37/70 × 100 = 53%

Now let's calculate the predictive values:


Positive Predictive Value:
A/(A + B) × 100
20/53 × 100 = 38%



Negative Predictive Value:
D/(D + C) × 100
37/47 × 100 = 79%

Using the same test in a population with higher prevalence increases positive predictive value. Conversely, increased prevalence results in decreased negative predictive value. When considering predictive values of diagnostic or screening tests, recognize the influence of the prevalence of disease. The figure below depicts the relationship between disease prevalence and predictive value in a test with 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity:

https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat507/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat507/files/lesson10/prevalence_graph.gifRelationship between disease prevalence and predictive value in a test with 95% sensitivity and 85% specificity.
(From Mausner JS, Kramer S: Mausner and Bahn Epidemiology: An Introductory Text. Philadelphia, WB Saunders, 1985, p. 221.)

https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat507/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat507/files/lesson05/try_it.gif (https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat507/print/book/export/html/71#TB_inline?height=300&width=400&inlineId=myOnPageContent)Think About It!

Guess the answer lies in here somewhere. Still working on it.

Initial feeling is that perhaps some of the later test results that are coming to hand may have lesser prevalence and are now being included. This could possibly account for the altered number if they are vastly different in prevalence from the initial study.

[Snow Leopard]

Those webpages were last updated 16 July 2014

No - those pages have a footer which contains within the HTML "Last updated: 16 July 2014"
You are just making an assumption.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger (Last Updated: 1-Jan-2000)

[Beagle]

Cxbladder:

Outperformed comparative tests as an adjunct to cystoscopy.
Has a negative predictive value (NPV) of 97%.
Detected 100% of T1-T3, Tis and upper tract tumours.
Detected 97% of high-grade tumours.
Detected 68% of Ta tumours as compared to cytology at 35%.
Distinguished between low grade Ta tumours and other detected urothelial carcinomas with a sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 90%
Robust to BPH, cystitis/UTI, haematuria secondary to warfarin, prostatitis and urolithiasis.
Detected six urothelial carcinoma not identified by cystoscopy during the clinical work-up but confirmed at the 12 month follow-up:

1 x T2 single renal pelvis.
1 x Unk multiple high grade bladder tumours.
1 x T2 single high grade bladder tumour.
3 x Renal pelvic / distal uteric tumours (detected by CT; not path confirmed).


Has a overall sensitivity of 82% at 85% specificity


Accept that's some scary stuff for anyone who was left wondering, (thankfully not me, was a bad UTI) but if the test isn't funded by the local DHB's its hard to see it getting much traction here.

[psychic]

Sometime ago somewhere on this forum I made the statement that the PPV (Positive Predictive Value) of 74% for the CxBladder clinical study as claimed by PEB in their little video was wrong.

I got a bit of flak along the lines of the smart cookies at Pacific Edge knew what they were doing and thus I was wrong.

Anyway I notice we have a new video (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/). It claims a different PPV, 68% this time.

I say this is still significantly wrong.

So watch the video, enjoy the marketing spin and note the figures.

Then crunch the numbers and tell me if can get them to add up.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Does the CxBladder Triage (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/about-cxbladder/cxbladder-triage/) webpage lack any detail whatsoever when you look at it?

Ok, admit this stuff makes my head hurt so go easy. I get 39% PPV but then I read that this result must be factored by the prevalence of the disease - which we don't have (lol - do we?) .

[Snow Leopard]

Ok, admit this stuff makes my head hurt so go easy. I get 39% PPV but then I read that this result must be factored by the prevalence of the disease - which we don't have (lol - do we?) .

Well, the video I mentioned earlier (http://cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/) states that out of 485 patients in the test 66 had urothelial carcinomas.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[psychic]

Yes, I understand that, but this gives you the prevalence of the disease only within that 485 presenting with Haematuria. Is this group representative? Are there other factors that come into play when calculating the PPV? Just askin....

[psychic]

Accept that's some scary stuff for anyone who was left wondering, (thankfully not me, was a bad UTI) but if the test isn't funded by the local DHB's its hard to see it getting much traction here.

Well, no question that the NZ DHB's have little to throw around on new tests. Whether they will run with it later we will see. They don't use the other established biomarkers and given the market size here, it is not hard to see why PEB place little emphasis on it.

With growing awareness, I reckon there will be a few here interested in paying for it privately - am sure I would.
Wonder where Sth X etc are up to with approval process?

[Snow Leopard]

Yes, I understand that, but this gives you the prevalence of the disease only within that 485 presenting with Haematuria. Is this group representative? Are there other factors that come into play when calculating the PPV? Just askin....

It is this group of 485 on which the trial was conducted and it is this group from which the results are derived, and thus should be the basis for PPV as it is for Sensitivity etc.
If PPV is calculated on a different group (from everything else) and they are not providing any information that it is then frankly such a thing would be very unethical.

So although I believe they are wrong again I believe it is just another mistake.

Part of the theory for calculating a sensitivity and specificity is that this is independent of the particular prevalence of the condition in the group and these values can then be taken and the numbers crunched for a different population. (The Spanish, we are told, have a higher prevalence than many other nations for instance).

Now for the rub:

If you wander over to this Online Diagnostic Test Evaluation Calculator (http://www.medcalc.org/calc/diagnostic_test.php) you can bung some numbers in:

This is what you get for the cytology bit from the test numbers (I could be one or two out but it is not important):

7119


and this is what you get when you make the test ten times larger with the exact same ratios:

7120

The only difference is the confidence in the accuracy of the results as a result of the larger sample size (basic statistics). So the 95% confidence level for sensitivity goes from it is probably between 43.3% to 68.3% to a narrow 52.2% to 59.9%.

So in summary. The particular prevalence matters for the quoted PPV and it would be really good to have some results from other trials preferably based on a larger sample size.

I will leave you to play with the above calculator and the CxBladder results.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[psychic]

Nice Link!! Better than my back of the envelope, but gobsmacked I got it right..! lol

But wait. it then says

If the sample sizes in the positive (Disease present) and the negative (Disease absent) groups do not reflect the real prevalence of the disease, then the Positive and Negative predicted values cannot be estimated and you should ignore those values.
Alternatively, when the disease prevalence is known then the positive and negative predictive values can be calculated using the following formula's based on Bayes' theorem:


Well, I'm not taxing myself further with this Bayes Theorem thing - sounds ghastly. But does this not suggest that the PPV should abe calculated using a known wider prevalence. Presumably if the same prevalence is used, then it allows comparison of tests..?

Ducks for cover.....

[Minerbarejet]

It is this group of 485 on which the trial was conducted and it is this group from which the results are derived, and thus should be the basis for PPV as it is for Sensitivity etc.
If PPV is calculated on a different group (from everything else) and they are not providing any information that it is then frankly such a thing would be very unethical.

So although I believe they are wrong again I believe it is just another mistake.

Part of the theory for calculating a sensitivity and specificity is that this is independent of the particular prevalence of the condition in the group and these valuescan then be taken and the numbers crunched for a different population. (The Spanish, we are told, have a higher prevalence than many other nations for instance).

Now for the rub:

If you wander over to this Online Diagnostic Test Evaluation Calculator (http://www.medcalc.org/calc/diagnostic_test.php) you can bung some numbers in:

This is what you get for the cytology bit from the test numbers (I could be one or two out but it is not important):

7119


and this is what you get when you make the test ten times larger with the exact same ratios:

7120

The only difference is the confidence in the accuracy of the results as a result of the larger sample size (basic statistics). So the 95% confidence level for sensitivity goes from it is probably between 43.3% to 68.3% to a narrow 52.2% to 59.9%.

So in summary. The particular prevalence should not matter and it would be really good to have some results from other trials preferably based on a larger sample size.

I will leave you to play with the above calculator and the CxBladder results.

Best Wishes
Paper TigerThanks for that PT.
We await the release of further trial statistics conducted of which I believe there are a few in the offing.
One thing of note though in your offering was the line that unless the prevalence is known then PPV can largely be ignored.
This raises the question , was the expected prevalence of the group known before the trial or was the PPV established as a result of the trial.
Hmmm. Further work required
Cheers
Miner

[Snow Leopard]

Nice Link!! Better than my back of the envelope, but gobsmacked I got it right..! lol

But wait. it then says

If the sample sizes in the positive (Disease present) and the negative (Disease absent) groups do not reflect the real prevalence of the disease, then the Positive and Negative predicted values cannot be estimated and you should ignore those values.
Alternatively, when the disease prevalence is known then the positive and negative predictive values can be calculated using the following formula's based on Bayes' theorem:


Well, I'm not taxing myself further with this Bayes Theorem thing - sounds ghastly. But does this not suggest that the PPV should abe calculated using a known wider prevalence. Presumably if the same prevalence is used, then it allows comparison of tests..?

Ducks for cover.....


Thanks for that PT.
We await the release of further trial statistics conducted of which I believe there are a few in the offing.
One thing of note though in your offering was the line that unless the prevalence is known then PPV can largely be ignored.
This raises the question , was the expected prevalence of the group known before the trial or was the PPV established as a result of the trial.
Hmmm. Further work required
Cheers
Miner

What that means is:
The prevalence it calculates is the prevalence of the condition in the numbers you input and
if the numbers you input do not have the same prevalence as the condition in the real world then the calculated prevalence is not the prevalence in the real world.

So the prevalence in the test was what it was and the PPV for the test is what it was
BUT in the real world the prevalence may be different and thus the PPV may be different which is why the really important numbers are the sensitivity and the specificity (which are affected more by sample size).
BUT
PEB decided to throw a PPV out there.

OK - that was definitely the last post from me for a while on this subject.

Next up, on another day, will be why 100% sensitivity is only half the story and we need to talk more about specificity.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Absolute144]

No - those pages have a footer which contains within the HTML "Last updated: 16 July 2014"
You are just making an assumption.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger (Last Updated: 1-Jan-2000)

Thanks for the scrutiny :)

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for your input PT.
Seems that prevalence has little relevance except in the context of the test involved
Which makes it unusable to relate to another set of parameters from another test.
Perhaps it is about now that the algorithms of triage come into play with demographics, size, shape, smoker, age, etc all affecting the prevalence of any trial conducted.
Interesting times
Miner

[Mista_Trix]

No commentary re: the price sensitive trading halt we just went through?

[blobbles]

European patent granted. Covering most countries in Europe... I believe this was expected though, shouldn't ruffle too many feathers?

[Schrodinger]

I think they are announcing they have tens of thousand tests oops that's been done before.

[sharp]

takeaway from the media release:

"the Company has just now started into its second year of commercial operations. Salesare tracking expectations..."

[Mista_Trix]

Oh phew, not everyone on this thread who comments is banned yet :-S

[Ninefingers]

"US Sales are tracking expectations following acceptance of Cxbladder as an adjunct technology by four national provider networks and an active marketing program to clinicians and healthcare organisations."
Most interesting thing in the announcement.

[Crystal Ball]

Oh phew, not everyone on this thread who comments is banned yet :-S
I think you will find Mista_Trix, it's only those that are rude and nasty to others that get banned. Pretty sure Vince is fine with the differing of opinions/ thoughts, not the personal mud slinging that some idiots have resorted to in the past......

[Schrodinger]

"US Sales are tracking expectations following acceptance of Cxbladder as an adjunct technology by four national provider networks and an active marketing program to clinicians and healthcare organisations."
Most interesting thing in the announcement.

If that's the case then its positive news. What was the announcement to market on the expected sales for this 6 months ?

[pierre]

In the first few months of 2014 there were a number of announcements about various initiatives which excited the market, but no financial information was released until the full year results were published on 28 May.

I emailed the company this afternoon asking when PEB intended to provide an update to the market about sales, revenue and/or other developments. I'll post the reply when I receive it.

I haven't had a direct reply to my request - they must have been too busy preparing today's announcement. That will do in the meantime.

The FY15 financials will be revealed late May so patience required for the next few months while they count the money that appears to be starting to come in from the US market.

Maybe the product line up is Ok and the (former) doom & gloom merchants on PEB might be proved wrong.

[MAC]

If that's the case then its positive news. What was the announcement to market on the expected sales for this 6 months ?

Analyst consensus is for $3.2M revenues (+278%) for the full year to 31 March up from $0.8M in the prior year.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=PEB.NZ

[Schrodinger]

Ok thanks. Has the company announced any of their own forecasts?

[Harvey Specter]

classic PEB.......... company has gone out of their way,several times, to say they will not be forecasting sales due to so many unknowns
yet today they say sales are tracking expectations......... and who's expectation will those be.... the cleaning ladies or insto's or maybe the taxi drivers.
Total rhetoricCan someone be a Darling and remind them we are expecting 10s of thousands of tests.

[skid]

If I was PEB management --This is exactly what I would do at this stage(announcement)

The patent (which they jumped the gun on before)is a great way to throw in some hints on sales (whether the goods are there or not)

[hilskin]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/261058

[Carpenterjoe]

classic PEB.......... company has gone out of their way,several times, to say they will not be forecasting sales due to so many unknowns
yet today they say sales are tracking expectations......... and who's expectation will those be.... the cleaning ladies or insto's or maybe the taxi drivers.
Total rhetoric

hmmmmm. I thought lack of sales information was to help maintain competitive advantage? (Complete opposite to Xero, I know which strategy I prefer).
I suppose it really comes down to shareholder trust, I have a lot more trust in Darling than Key.

[hilskin]

Hi Penn, two announcements today :-)



Title
Date
Type


Pacific Edge issued patent in Europe for gastri... (https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/261058)
24 Feb 2015, 3:43pm
GENERAL


European Patent Office grants PE patent for Cxb... (https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/261056)
24 Feb 2015, 12:56pm
GENERAL

[penn]

Ah thanks I could not see the 12.56 one on the NZX!
But if the Gastric news is price sensitive, why release it at 3:43pm
surely the European patent office don't send out e-mails at 1:00am.

[klid]

Ah thanks I could not see the 12.56 one on the NZX!
But if the Gastric news is price sensitive, why release it at 3:43pm
surely the European patent office don't send out e-mails at 1:00am.
Curious. They mustn't have known at the time of the first announcement.

The first announcement only has this is mention to gastric cancer:

NZX Announcement ID 261056
Meanwhile Pacific Edge has been rapidly extending its portfolio of intellectual property based on its molecular diagnostic technology with the recent grant of patents in the US for the prognosis of melanoma, in Japan for the prognosis of colorectal cancer and in China for the detection of gastric cancer.


And interestingly there was a buy on the first announcement but not the second.

[skid]

They may have been trying to get more bang for their buck....There was a small flurry..but things soon settled a tad higher than start--1c in the end----i think that sort of thing needs to be backed by hard sales at this point...some indication that things are in fact going forward at an acceptable rate.

[pierre]

I haven't had a direct reply to my request - they must have been too busy preparing today's announcement. That will do in the meantime.

The FY15 financials will be revealed late May so patience required for the next few months while they count the money that appears to be starting to come in from the US market.

Maybe the product line up is Ok and the (former) doom & gloom merchants on PEB might be proved wrong.

I received the following response from the Commercial Director of PEB late this afternoon:

"Thank you for your email. There won’t be any interim updates provided outside of the the formal announcements provided by the company at the key specified times of year i.e. year end and half year announcement dates. Outside of this we continue to announce to the market any additional material events as required by continuous disclosure rules of the FMA.

In that regard we did make two announcements today relating to the recent issue of additional patents in Europe for our Cxbladder, and Melanoma technology (see below), with some reference to our current progress in the US with Cxbladder.

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/european-patent-office-grants-pacific-edge-patent-for-cxbladder
http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/pacific-edge-issued-patent-in-europe-for-gastric-cancer

Thank you for your continued support, patience and interest in Pacific Edge."

[Minerbarejet]

I received the following response from the Commercial Director of PEB late this afternoon:

"Thank you for your email. There won’t be any interim updates provided outside of the the formal announcements provided by the company at the key specified times of year i.e. year end and half year announcement dates. Outside of this we continue to announce to the market any additional material events as required by continuous disclosure rules of the FMA.

In that regard we did make two announcements today relating to the recent issue of additional patents in Europe for our Cxbladder, and Melanoma technology (see below), with some reference to our current progress in the US with Cxbladder.

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/european-patent-office-grants-pacific-edge-patent-for-cxbladder
http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/pacific-edge-issued-patent-in-europe-for-gastric-cancer

Thank you for your continued support, patience and interest in Pacific Edge."All very well and good but where is the reference to Melanoma in Europe in the announcements- maybe thats coming tomorrow.

[pierre]

All very well and good but where is the reference to Melanoma in Europe in the announcements- maybe thats coming tomorrow.

He didn't mention Melanoma in Europe - you must have missed the comma after Cxbladder in the second paragraph of the response.
Cheers
Pierre

[Balance]

I’m sorry to have to say that you may well be disappointed in your analysis Whipmoney, PEB told us at the time of the AGM that they could break even this financial year [1]. IMHO it’s more likely to be HY15 (November 2014).

My estimate is that this would require circa 21,000 US tests to cover costs and to turn a profit, but then as we know, PEB have already also told us that they expect to be “processing several tens of thousands of tests” within 2014 [2].

And well yes, most informed shareholders would actually see R&D as a positive within a company like PEB full of extraordinary research people and with a history of performing such R&D at one tenth the cost of what it may otherwise cost abroad [3].

The more well managed R&D, the more products entering the commercialisation pipeline, the more long term cashflows generated, fantastic.

References:

1. http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-100m-forecast (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/269976/pacific-edge-100m-forecast)
2. http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-edge-business (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business)
3. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11178639 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639)

The post above is an indication of closely posters and investors follow comments and expectations of PEB's management.

I guess it means PEB is currently running at least a year behind schedule, maybe 2 years.

[MAC]

They are a year behind I reckon which is ok within the big picture for long term holders, it’s a five year plan, and Pacific Edge have never provided annualised guidance, thus far, for good reason.

That reason is simply because they have been in a phase where the schedule control has been determined by others, network providers, insurers and CMS, as they work through those processes.

Once the NPN’s, insurers and Medicare have worked through their respective processes and are on board the schedule control reverts back to Pacific Edge.

The positive aspect is that they are largely through that phase and they’ve timed the hiring of staff well in that context and are now ready to ramp up.

1. CLIA approval
2. US lab construction
3. Cxbladder(detect) product launch
4. NPN network provider agreements
5. KP demonstration user programme agreement
6. Hiring of initial sales force (12 staff)
7. Opening up of initial geographic sales regions
8. Large insurers commencing reimbursement
9. Commence LUG user programmes
10. Start of revenue ramp up <--- WE ARE HERE
11. Cxbladder(triage) product launch
12. Medicare coverage
13. Commencement of insurer contract agreements
14. KP demonstration user programme results
15. KP contract agreement
16. Profitability
17. Cxbladder(predict) product launch
18. Further HMO user programme initiated
19. Veterans Association coverage
20. Onward and upward to $100M revenues

[pierre]

He didn't mention Melanoma in Europe - you must have missed the comma after Cxbladder in the second paragraph of the response.
Cheers
Pierre

Miner, I didn't read the response in the way you did but I have just received the following clarification from PEB - so your interpretation was correct.

"I subsequently realised that in my email I had incorrectly made reference to melanoma instead of gastric cancer, in relation to the European patents issued yesterday.
Apologies for any confusion this may have caused."

[Minerbarejet]

Miner, I didn't read the response in the way you did but I have just received the following clarification from PEB - so your interpretation was correct.

"I subsequently realised that in my email I had incorrectly made reference to melanoma instead of gastric cancer, in relation to the European patents issued yesterday.
Apologies for any confusion this may have caused."
Ah well its all sorted then. Thanks for your consideration in posting the correction. It just didn't make sense the way it was.
Now the question is: Why would Melanoma spring to mind on his part. Something else on the cards perhaps?

[skid]

This post is not helpful in maintaining the required tone for this thread.
With all due respect,I believe it is helpful for those new to share trading who are trying to figure out where to invest.
With this information they have a better understanding of the risks involved.
It has also led to a response that they can take into consideration.
I understand where you are coming from,due to past posts, but in this case wouldnt you agree?

[pierre]

Ah well its all sorted then. Thanks for your consideration in posting the correction. It just didn't make sense the way it was.
Now the question is: Why would Melanoma spring to mind on his part. Something else on the cards perhaps?

This was included in yesterday's release:
"Meanwhile Pacific Edge has been rapidly extending its portfolio of intellectual property based on its molecular diagnostic technology with the recent grant of patents in the US for the prognosis of melanoma..."

Maybe that was in his mind?

[slack]

There's mention of PEB in the HY financial report from CDY released yesterday (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150224/pdf/42wtsbgc094vbd.pdf):


The Consolidated Entity licenced its cancer diagnostic patents to Pacific Edge Biotechnology Limited (“Pacific Edge”) in 2010 for the use in their bladder cancer diagnostic test. The test was launched in Australia and New Zealand in 2012 and Pacific Edge reported on the opening of their USA based laboratory in September 2012. Cxbladder® was launched in the USA in March 2013 after Pacific Edge received their CLIA certification for its laboratories. In August 2013 the Consolidated Entity received a milestone payment in Pacific Edge shares (1,084,622 shares) at the time their sales activities commenced in the United States. The Pacific Edge shares have subsequently been sold on market.

During the half year ended 31 December 2014 Pacific Edge paid to the Consolidated Entity $18,040 in royalties in relation to their license and announced the launch of a new triaging product for bladder cancer.

Pretty sure we already knew that CDY needed the cash sold their shares, but does this amount of royalties paid by PEB give any insight on sales?

[MAC]

That would be a royalty payment from the Pacific Edge HY15 period, so retrospective.

[Balance]

There's mention of PEB in the HY financial report from CDY released yesterday (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150224/pdf/42wtsbgc094vbd.pdf):


The Consolidated Entity licenced its cancer diagnostic patents to Pacific Edge Biotechnology Limited (“Pacific Edge”) in 2010 for the use in their bladder cancer diagnostic test. The test was launched in Australia and New Zealand in 2012 and Pacific Edge reported on the opening of their USA based laboratory in September 2012. Cxbladder® was launched in the USA in March 2013 after Pacific Edge received their CLIA certification for its laboratories. In August 2013 the Consolidated Entity received a milestone payment in Pacific Edge shares (1,084,622 shares) at the time their sales activities commenced in the United States. The Pacific Edge shares have subsequently been sold on market.

During the half year ended 31 December 2014 Pacific Edge paid to the Consolidated Entity $18,040 in royalties in relation to their license and announced the launch of a new triaging product for bladder cancer.

Pretty sure we already knew that CDY needed the cash sold their shares, but does this amount of royalties paid by PEB give any insight on sales?

According to RM Research, CDY obtains 1.5% royalty fee from all sales and their forecasts in Oct 2012 when CxBladder was launched are that CDY will receive royalty incomes from PEB of :

1. $79,885 in FY2014,

2. $508,450 in FY2015.

$18,040 is a long long way off from the figures above and imo shows just how far behind PEB is from initial expectations!

In fact, it means that PEB's CxBladder slaes for the HY were $1.136m.

[MAC]

I find it a useful summary tool to talk too in relation to what is otherwise a very complex commercial roll out sequence, it hangs on my wall for reference, that's all.

Matters not to me to keep such things to myself in future if folk are not at all interested.

Feedback accepted.

[Xerof]

Nice work???

If you want a "true indication", just read the 28 November 2014 report to end of Sept 2014 - sales of 1.011m, which I presume is net of the royalties due in the following period.