PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Snow Leopard]

...In fact, it means that PEB's CxBladder slaes for the HY were $1.136m.


Nice work???

If you want a "true indication", just read the 28 November 2014 report to end of Sept 2014 - sales of 1.011m, which I presume is net of the royalties due in the following period.

PEB CxBladder sales were about $486,000 for the period Apr 14 to Sep14

Presumably these royalty payments cover the period Jul 14 to Dec 14.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

According to RM Research, CDY obtains 1.5% royalty fee from all sales and their forecasts in Oct 2012 when CxBladder was launched are that CDY will receive royalty incomes from PEB of :

1. $79,885 in FY2014,

2. $508,450 in FY2015.

$18,040 is a long long way off from the figures above and imo shows just how far behind PEB is from initial expectations!

In fact, it means that PEB's CxBladder slaes for the HY were $1.136m.I would like to point out if I may that the figures 1. 79885 and 2 . 508450 are the expectations of CDY not PEB.
As I do not recall royalties of any note being paid before by PEB this initial payment would cover all tests done up to the end of PEB's Sept 2015 HY.
This would include the tests that had accumulated to the end of March 2014.
You are also comparing a predominantly 6 month figure with a full year expectation figure.
This means you could either halve the expectation or double the 18,040. Not quite so bad after all.

[Xerof]

PT, not convinced they knew what sales to end of December 2014 were when they paid royalties prior to that date

The main takeaway from Balance's 'observation' made via a circuitous route, was expectations set in 2012 have not been met. Well, sorry, but that just isn't new news to anyone, and the share price has adjusted from lofty heights to reflect that.

The next report will give us another milestone indicator for sales, but I'd prefer to see the CMS issue resolved to be honest

[MAC]

It's a summary of a commercialisation sequence as provided by Pacific Edge, it is neither positive nor negative, it's neutral by definition, it's a list.

I find it a good ruler for measuring and gauging where the company is at, if others don't that's fine I won't prepare or share such things in the future.

I have been a holder in Pacific Edge for several years having last topped up to my diversification limit in 2013, I have never sold a single share in the company, and have no interest in buying or selling PEB whilst watching their five year plan roll out. You can send me as many expensive bottles of wine on that note as you may wish.

Like many long term holders I'm content just to sit back, watch and to discuss progress along the way with constructive people who share a similar interest. If you object to that then I make no apology for it.

[Minerbarejet]

PEB CxBladder sales were about $486,000 for the period Apr 14 to Sep14

Presumably these royalty payments cover the period Jul 14 to Dec 14.

Best Wishes
Paper TigerHullo PT.
The CDY announcement of half year results to the end of December include a royalty payment made by PEB. This payment does not show up in the accounts of PEB for the half year ending in Sept. Therefore can we assume the payment for accrued tests up to end of Sept 2014 was made to CDY during the period Oct 1 to Dec 31? If so then any further royalties from Oct 1 2014 will be accruing for the next payment due either after FYMarch or ,if it is yearly, again after Sept 2015.

[Snow Leopard]

PEB CxBladder sales were about $486,000 for the period Apr 14 to Sep14

Presumably these royalty payments cover the period Jul 14 to Dec 14.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Revised thoughts:

PEB CxBaldder Sales were NZ$460,000 (US) + NZ$71,000 (NZ) for a total of

NZ$531,000

plus the were probably 'internal sales' maybe but for an unknown amount but with a set value for accounting and royalty purposes.

The AU$18,040 would equate to AU$1M2 at 1.5%.

So if the payment covers PEB HY to Sep14 then the sales guys giving away free tests could be the difference.

Or maybe it is something else, you can make various assumptions.

But don't know for sure. :(

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[psychic]

Is another assumption the 1.5%?

[Snow Leopard]

Hullo PT.
The CDY announcement of half year results to the end of December include a royalty payment made by PEB. This payment does not show up in the accounts of PEB for the half year ending in Sept. Therefore can we assume the payment for accrued tests up to end of Sept 2014 was made to CDY during the period Oct 1 to Dec 31? If so then any further royalties from Oct 1 2014 will be accruing for the next payment due either after FYMarch or ,if it is yearly, again after Sept 2015.

Do they itemize royalty payments? I am sure it is not necessary.
It will probably just be part of the payments to suppliers/trade creditors in the HY accounts.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Do they itemize royalty payments? I am sure it is not necessary.
It will probably just be part of the payments to suppliers/trade creditors in the HY accounts.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Applying logic to a payment for royalties if made prior to HY2014 cutoff at 30 Sept and included in financials (somewhere) could indicate any of these:
A: the royalty rate is higher than thought
B: there are more tests being done than thought
C: Royalties are paid on all tests used whether part of sales or User Programs
Personally I favour C as this could explain the discrepancy between the actual 531000 and the 1.2 mill

[Balance]

I would like to point out if I may that the figures 1. 79885 and 2 . 508450 are the expectations of CDY not PEB.
As I do not recall royalties of any note being paid before by PEB this initial payment would cover all tests done up to the end of PEB's Sept 2015 HY.
This would include the tests that had accumulated to the end of March 2014.
You are also comparing a predominantly 6 month figure with a full year expectation figure.
This means you could either halve the expectation or double the 18,040. Not quite so bad after all.

It is hard to imagine that CDY would put out that kind of expectations without some consultation and interaction with PEB - that is the nature of forecasts. I recall some posters using the CDY numbers to assess PEB's forecast sales and prospects at that time and getting very bullish in the process.

In any case, it is clear now that PEB's sales are way behind CDY's 2012 forecasts and expectations.

Question now is by how much.

PEB announced its first commercial sale of CxBladder in the States on 18 October 2013. CDY results for FY June 2014 showed no royalty payments from PEB based on sales.

It can be deduced therefore that the $18,040 paid to CDY was for all sales up to date to 31 December 2014 (accounting 101 - matching & accrual concepts).

Bearing in mind that there's an overlap between PEB's March year and CDY's June year for reporting purposes, anyone expecting big numbers for the year to 31 March 2015 are going to be disappointed would be my thoughts at this stage.

[Balance]

PT, not convinced they knew what sales to end of December 2014 were when they paid royalties prior to that date

The main takeaway from Balance's 'observation' made via a circuitous route, was expectations set in 2012 have not been met. Well, sorry, but that just isn't new news to anyone, and the share price has adjusted from lofty heights to reflect that.

The next report will give us another milestone indicator for sales, but I'd prefer to see the CMS issue resolved to be honest

Fair enough, Xerof, to those who follow the stock as closely as some do.

PEB has not however commented to date on how sales are running well below expectations and still refer to the magic $100m and 'in line with expectations'.

Are we to assume they have rolling expectations (declining year to year) which they will always meet?

[Xerof]

It can be deduced therefore that the $18,040 paid to CDY was for all sales up to date to 31 December 2014 (accounting 101 - matching & accrual concepts). Not when sales to 31 Dec 14 would be unknown, given the payment was paid BEFORE the end of the period. I can't reconcile it in any shape or form, so it's possibly just a random cut-off date


Bearing in mind that there's an overlap between PEB's March year and CDY's June year for reporting purposes, anyone expecting big numbers for the year to 31 March 2015 are going to be disappointed would be my thoughts at this stage. Despite your inconsistency over the royalty payment, I have the same thoughts - I too am not expecting 'big' numbers, nor is the market given the relatively stable share price. Happy to be surprised though.


Are we to assume they have rolling expectations (declining year to year) which they will always meet? I wouldn't phrase it quite like that, but yes, timeframes have clearly been pushed out. I cut them some slack on that - it's moved, but I'm personally prepared to wait and see what is reported during the next 12 to 24 months. But I agree, commentary has been inconsistent and 'all over the paddock' (Jim Bolger) at times. I would expect better reporting and commentary from the newly appointed CFO, who is hopefully an accountant, not a scientist

[Minerbarejet]

It is hard to imagine that CDY would put out that kind of expectations without some consultation and interaction with PEB - that is the nature of forecasts. I recall some posters using the CDY numbers to assess PEB's forecast sales and prospects at that time and getting very bullish in the process.

In any case, it is clear now that PEB's sales are way behind CDY's 2012 forecasts and expectations.

Question now is by how much.

PEB announced its first commercial sale of CxBladder in the States on 18 October 2013. CDY results for FY June 2014 showed no royalty payments from PEB based on sales.

It can be deduced therefore that the $18,040 paid to CDY was for all sales up to date to 31 December 2014 (accounting 101 - matching & accrual concepts).

Bearing in mind that there's an overlap between PEB's March year and CDY's June year for reporting purposes, anyone expecting big numbers for the year to 31 March 2015 are going to be disappointed would be my thoughts at this stage.
How do you pay royalties in advance for an unknown number of tests. The payments would be based on PEBs reporting to CDY that x number of tests had accumulated to Sept 30 2014. "Here's the cheque" dated Oct 20th 2014 or thereabouts. If it was paid after the known accumulation to Dec 31 2014 then it could not show up in CDYs report as revenue for the period July 1 to Dec 31 2014.

Apologies: see this has been covered whilst under construction.
Might also add that big numbers would be unlikely. Would suggest that at the very least they would equal the first half plus whatever advances have been made in six months. There is every likelihood that the first patients are getting repeat monitoring at regular intervals by now so that should produce some growth

[Balance]

Despite your inconsistency over the royalty payment, I have the same thoughts - I too am not expecting 'big' numbers, nor is the market given the relatively stable share price. Happy to be surprised though.

I wouldn't phrase it quite like that, but yes, timeframes have clearly been pushed out. I cut them some slack on that - it's moved, but I'm personally prepared to wait and see what is reported during the next 12 to 24 months. But I agree, commentary has been inconsistent and 'all over the paddock' (Jim Bolger) at times. I would expect better reporting and commentary from the newly appointed CFO, who is hopefully an accountant, not a scientist

Timeframes being pushed out have several implications, Xerof :

1. Capital requirement - $14m cash as at 31 September 2014 is unlikely to last another year of cash burn to build up sales as PEB has built up a higher overhead structure. Cash burn - estimate running at between $1m to $1.5m a month. Companies like to operate with a safety net of at least one year cash reserves so when PEB reports in May 2015, another rights issue is likely.

2. The test market that PEB is in is getting crowded and is dynamic - PEB's competitive edge is not going to last forever. There are other players coming onto the market and urologists are not spoilt for choice.

The risk on PEB has moved from upside risk (ie. need to be in) to downside risk (better to be out) imo.

Imo, PEB is showing all the signs of a company in retreat - not a company which boldly stakes a path, and reports progress against the path.

[MAC]

Pacific Edge have advised that they have sufficient cash on hand through to profitability quite recently, but then perhaps some folk think they have better access to company accounting and internal forecasting than the Pacific Edge CFO.

The analysts also, whom both are undoubtedly in frequent contact with the company, have also reported that cashflows are more than adequate.

And, of course, those of us whom passed high school math, can calculate that cash holdings plus Callahan grants is adequate through to FY16, irrespective really of contribution from revenue income.

Pacific Edge are one of the best capitalised pre-profitable companies on the NZX.

[Minerbarejet]

Agree the urologists are not spoilt for choice. They have cytology, and a few other singular tests with lesser credentials than cxbladder.
Competitive edge will remain until cxbladder is surpassed. Unfortunately there is not a lot of room to do that.

[Xerof]

The risk on PEB has moved from upside risk (ie. need to be in) to downside risk (better to be out) imo.

Imo, PEB is showing all the signs of a company in retreat - not a company which boldly stakes a path, and reports progress against the path.

Noted. Lets see in a couple of years.

[Minerbarejet]

Noted. Lets see in a couple of years.Good idea, xerof.

[Balance]

Noted. Lets see in a couple of years.

Investing is also a dynamic business, Xerof.

I prefer to monitor a company closely against its stated strategy and goals, and not rely on their assurances and utterances!

[skid]

Pacific Edge have advised that they have sufficient cash on hand through to profitability quite recently, but then perhaps some folk think they have better access to company accounting and internal forecasting than the Pacific Edge CFO.

The analysts also, whom both are undoubtedly in frequent contact with the company, have also reported that cashflows are more than adequate.

And, of course, those of us whom passed high school math, can calculate that cash holdings plus Callahan grants is adequate through to FY16, irrespective really of contribution from revenue income.

Pacific Edge are one of the best capitalised pre-profitable companies on the NZX.

Well,that will be one to keep an eye on--whether there is a rights issue in May. We will find out then which of you is right..Keeps life interesting.

[Snow Leopard]

...Attached is the royalties’ prediction from that report....

I notice that the guesses have:
a royalty rate of 1.5% of sales (for all years) in the 2012 one;
a royalty rate of 2.0% of sales (for all years) in the 2013 one and;
a royalty rate of 4.0% of sales (for all years) in the 2014 one.

Can anyone explain that?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

I notice that the guesses have:
a royalty rate of 1.5% of sales (for all years) in the 2012 one;
a royalty rate of 2.0% of sales (for all years) in the 2013 one and;
a royalty rate of 4.0% of sales (for all years) in the 2014 one.

Can anyone explain that?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Penalty rates or inflation perhaps.
Its a toughie that one. :)

[Balance]

I notice that the guesses have:
a royalty rate of 1.5% of sales (for all years) in the 2012 one;
a royalty rate of 2.0% of sales (for all years) in the 2013 one and;
a royalty rate of 4.0% of sales (for all years) in the 2014 one.

Can anyone explain that?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Page 11 of the RM 2014 Report states that royalty rates from CxBladder to be between 2% to 4% based upon industry standards.

[Xerof]

Well, trading revenue from external customers for the 6 months to 30 September 2014 was NZD 531k.

Royalties at 4% and an exchange rate of ~.87 results ~AUD$18k payable to CDY

[psychic]

Page 11 of the RM 2014 Report states that royalty rates from CxBladder to be between 2% to 4% based upon industry standards.

It says

We change our royalty rate on diagnostic
business from 2% to 4%, in line with the current industry standards.

So it is their estimate that has changed. From 1.5 to 2 now , shall we say 4?

[Balance]

It says

We change our royalty rate on diagnostic
business from 2% to 4%, in line with the current industry standards.

So it is their estimate that has changed. From 1.5 to 2 now , shall we say 4?


You are right.

RM Research is very optimistic! They forecast PEB doing sales of 56,981 tests in year to 30 June 2015!

[psychic]

Good thing PEB got those 12 Sales Exec's going recently then eh. Hate to dissappoint the Aussies.

[Snow Leopard]

It says

We change our royalty rate on diagnostic
business from 2% to 4%, in line with the current industry standards.

So it is their estimate that has changed. From 1.5 to 2 now , shall we say 4?

So do PEB have an agreement with CellMid that places a fixed upper limit on royalty rates or are the next 'current industry standards' going to blow out the budget.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

ASX:CDY Cellmid == Market Cap:$20M; HY Revenue:$2M; HY Loss:$1M.

[Snow Leopard]

Cellmid will receive single digit royalty from sales (Slide 11) (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20141010/pdf/42ssx9xxh3lxym.pdf)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

It may also be worth pondering at this point why RM Research were introduced into the debate.

Most posters will recall that CDY (Cellmid) and RM Research were used as resources to assess PEB prospects when there was little hard research information on PEB?

Guess the lesson to be learnt is that research like Edison or RM Research are as useful as what the companies like to tell the market?

[Minerbarejet]

Most posters will recall that CDY (Cellmid) and RM Research were used as resources to assess PEB prospects when there was little hard research information on PEB?

Guess the lesson to be learnt is that research like Edison or RM Research are as useful as what the companies like to tell the market?
Would you be amenable to providing us with an update on your opinion as to what comprehensive and unbiased research available at little cost could be considered as a suitable replacement for Edison oŕ RM Research and where we might find it. There are paid subscriptions but, alas, they must remain unaware of my financial situation.

[Balance]

Would you be amenable to providing us with an update on your opinion as to what comprehensive and unbiased research available at little cost could be considered as a suitable replacement for Edison oŕ RM Research and where we might find it. There are paid subscriptions but, alas, they must remain unaware of my financial situation.

Old saying 'Cheap things no good, good things not cheap'.

I deal with two broking houses and I get research from them. I used to share some of the information on this forum but not anymore.

There is for eg, research information out there on PEB, formal and informal. I am sure PEB is aware of what analysts are saying about it, formal and/or informal.

I have yet to see a company post or alert to a negative research note, ever!

Seen plenty of positive research reports posted though by companies.

[MAC]

Well certainly the analysis of Harbour Asset Management, Superlife and Salt funds may very well agree with that of analysts Edison and Forbar.

The last three SSH’s have been strong BUY’s.

Harbour increasing their stake to 7.5%, Superlife increasing their stake to 6%, and SALT entering at 95c and commencing a substantial holding at 5.2%.

So, all of those analysts could be correct, or some guy on the internet called Balance could be correct, ah well, we will all just have to wait and see.

[Balance]

Well certainly the analysis of Harbour Asset Management, Superlife and Salt funds may very well agree with that of analysts Edison and Forbar.

The last three SSH’s have been strong BUY’s.

Harbour increasing their stake to 7.5%, Superlife increasing their stake to 6%, and SALT entering at 95c and commencing a substantial holding at 5.2%.

So, all of those analysts could be correct, or some guy on the internet called Balance could be correct, ah well, we will all just have to wait and see.

Not simply a question of correct or incorrect - it's also a question of managing risk via information flow.

I am on record as stating that I am happy to buy PEB shares at $1.00 from those who are buying at 70c if the numbers come through and transparently. Let those who take the risk I am not prepared to (with information I have) and if they are correct, they can make the next 50% when I buy off them.

Fair enuf?

[MAC]

Indeed, some folk are comfortable with fixed term deposits or yield investing, some are as comfortable as a value or growth investor, each to their own.

I would never advocate being entirely in one stock, setting diversification limits is everything if you are a growth investor or if one holds growth stocks.

As far as Edison go, they offer information not available from other sources as they have the opportunity to question and critique Pacific Edge, just as they do so for thousands of other companies globally.

They also have specialist expert biotech sector analysts based in the UK and US who have authored the reports, Kathrine Genis, Emma Ulker and Dr Mick Cooper. Not something readily available to the local brokers.

I’ve been advised by Pacific Edge that Edison will be their primary vehicle for providing shareholder information.

I think most shareholders and prospective shareholders do probably appreciate that effort, the cost of Edison reports, as I understand is circa $60k per throw, not something Pacific Edge have to provide, or a cost they have to incur.

Initiating Edison report here, updates available on their website (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=pacificedge290914outlook.pdf&first_name=%25%25Forename%25%25&last_name=%25%25Surname%25%25&company=%25%25Company%25%25&email=%25%25emailaddr%25%25)

[skid]

Indeed, some folk are comfortable with fixed term deposits or yield investing, some are as comfortable as a value or growth investor, each to their own.

I would never advocate being entirely in one stock, setting diversification limits is everything if you are a growth investor or if one holds growth stocks.

As far as Edison go, they offer information not available from other sources as they have the opportunity to question and critique Pacific Edge, just as they do so for thousands of other companies globally.

They also have specialist expert biotech sector analysts based in the UK and US who have authored the reports, Kathrine Genis, Emma Ulker and Dr Mick Cooper. Not something readily available to the local brokers.

I’ve been advised by Pacific Edge that Edison will be their primary vehicle for providing shareholder information.

I think most shareholders and prospective shareholders do probably appreciate that effort, the cost of Edison reports, as I understand is circa $60k per throw, not something Pacific Edge have to provide, or a cost they have to incur.

Initiating Edison report here, updates available on their website (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=pacificedge290914outlook.pdf&first_name=%25%25Forename%25%25&last_name=%25%25Surname%25%25&company=%25%25Company%25%25&email=%25%25emailaddr%25%25)

So ,with that in mind,would you expect them to give a stink report if things were looking dicey?

[MAC]

Well that's entirely a moot point as the future looks absolutely bright for Pacific Edge.

As I understand, they don’t’ provide buy or sell recommendations, they just analyse the market, crunch the numbers on valuation and sensitivity analysis, evaluate the risks and offer business information.

Not my job to speak for them, just making an observation.

[Balance]

Well that's entirely a moot point as the future looks absolutely bright for Pacific Edge.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY

[Minerbarejet]

Well thanks for that, Balance.
I have absolutely no idea whatsoever what that was all about.

[Joshuatree]

Whose wearing shades then:cool:

[couta1]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY
Nice clip Balance did you borrow it from the boys at Rakon by any chance? must be their theme song:cool:

[Minerbarejet]

Whose wearing shades then:cool:This is a grey area.:)

[Balance]

Nice clip Balance did you borrow it from the boys at Rakon by any chance? must be their theme song:cool:

Very good, haha.

Gotto hand it to those Rakon Robinson boys - nothing fazes them because of the shades they wear?

[skid]

Well that's entirely a moot point as the future looks absolutely bright for Pacific Edge.

As I understand, they don’t’ provide buy or sell recommendations, they just analyse the market, crunch the numbers on valuation and sensitivity analysis, evaluate the risks and offer business information.

Not my job to speak for them, just making an observation.

Goes toward the reliability of the witness,,your honor..

[Balance]

Goes toward the reliability of the witness,,your honor..

Same witness who reckon CRP was worth $1.89 and Snakk is worth 11c to 15c?

And no update whatsoever from Edison on CRP - good times buddies?

[Balance]

I’ve been advised by Pacific Edge that Edison will be their primary vehicle for providing shareholder information.

I think most shareholders and prospective shareholders do probably appreciate that effort, the cost of Edison reports, as I understand is circa $60k per throw, not something Pacific Edge have to provide, or a cost they have to incur.

Initiating Edison report here, updates available on their website (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=pacificedge290914outlook.pdf&first_name=%25%25Forename%25%25&last_name=%25%25Surname%25%25&company=%25%25Company%25%25&email=%25%25emailaddr%25%25)

My very frank opinion to PEB is that they are better off spending the $60,000 on a good investors' communication person.

Edison has zero credibility with the institutions who are ultimately going to drive PEB's sp.

[BlackPeter]

Edison has zero credibility with the institutions who are ultimately going to drive PEB's sp.

Interesting. How do you measure that?

[Balance]

Interesting. How do you measure that?

You would have heard of the term 'top ranked analyst' and 'top rated stockbroking firm for research'.

Fund managers rank stockbroking firms every year by research, ideas and deal generation and trade execution as primary considerations. Depending on their rankings, stockbroking firms are then 'rewarded' with a certain level of business by the fund managers.

Edison does not figure in the rankings.

A fund manager or an analyst with a fund manager has to provide justifications to the investment committee why a stock is included in an investment portfolio - using Edison's research is not one of them!

If a top rated analyst recommend a stock, you better hope you are the first on his 'heads up' list!

[Minerbarejet]

You would have heard of the term 'top ranked analyst' and 'top rated stockbroking firm for research'.

Fund managers rank stockbroking firms every year by research, ideas and deal generation and trade execution as primary considerations. Depending on their rankings, stockbroking firms are then 'rewarded' with a certain level of business by the fund managers.

Edison does not figure in the rankings.

A fund manager or an analyst with a fund manager has to provide justifications to the investment committee why a stock is included in an investment portfolio - using Edison's research is not one of them!

If a top rated analyst recommend a stock, you better hope you are the first on his 'heads up' list!As an interested bystander would it be possible to learn who rates the fund managers. Presume there is Fund Manager of the year as well. Is there some overall Oracle, "She who shall be heard", overseeing these Stock Market Oscars.

[BlackPeter]

You would have heard of the term 'top ranked analyst' and 'top rated stockbroking firm for research'.

Fund managers rank stockbroking firms every year by research, ideas and deal generation and trade execution as primary considerations. Depending on their rankings, stockbroking firms are then 'rewarded' with a certain level of business by the fund managers.

Edison does not figure in the rankings.

A fund manager or an analyst with a fund manager has to provide justifications to the investment committee why a stock is included in an investment portfolio - using Edison's research is not one of them!

If a top rated analyst recommend a stock, you better hope you are the first on his 'heads up' list!

Thank you - fair enough. Haven't seen enough of their reports so far to be able to assess their credibility myself (though they look professional) and noted as well that they are the largest equity research provider in the UK. How do you become the largest if your product has no value?

BTW - found a relevant link for this discussion: http://www.irmagazine.com/articles/sell-side/20098/should-you-pay-equity-research/

[sharp]

My very frank opinion to PEB is that they are better off spending the $60,000 on a good investors' communication person.

Edison has zero credibility with the institutions who are ultimately going to drive PEB's sp.

How amusing.

[Snow Leopard]

7149

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Lol
Now come on PT, you know jolly well PEB wont accept anyones sample in a bottle like that.

[skid]

Lol
Now come on PT, you know jolly well PEB wont accept anyones sample in a bottle like that.

Is my computer screwed up ,or did you post at 3:22am...please tell me your in a different time zone.:eek2:

[Minerbarejet]

Is my computer screwed up ,or did you post at 3:22am...please tell me your in a different time zone.:eek2:No, Skid,
I'm in a Parallel Universe where PEB is doing wonders for mankind with their vast pipeline of products.

[skid]

Ohhhh....thats it...all clear now:) (lets hope management bring that into this universe in meaningful numbers)

[Xerof]

Hmmm, names in the top 5 holders added another Million shares to the kitty in the first 2 weeks of February, mainly a very reputable broking house. Thats almost all the traded shares for that period.......virtually nobody in the top 100 sold any.

Who'd have thought eh?

[Balance]

No, Skid,
I'm in a Parallel Universe where PEB is doing wonders for mankind with their vast pipeline of products.

Vast pipeline of products ain't gonna cut it as far as Earthly Universe is concerned - it's numbers, numbers and more numbers.

Notice how the market does not react much to announcements of new products and/or patents anymore?

Promises may get you the girl but delivery of said promises is what keeps her! :D

Another mention of $100m target in 5 years time (adjusted for PEB's parallel universe space time) may just be the last straw!

PEB better delivers good numbers when it reports in May 2015 or else the sp has a target of 40c written all over it.

[psychic]

Hmmm, names in the top 5 holders added another Million shares to the kitty in the first 2 weeks of February, mainly a very reputable broking house. Thats almost all the traded shares for that period.......virtually nobody in the top 100 sold any.

Who'd have thought eh?

Thanks Xerof. They clearly don't get their info from ST..

[Minerbarejet]

For the purposes of assisting newbies associated with this thread, ( there may be some left) could you possibly be a little more explicit in what you define as "good". Is this "good" according to research, "good" according to Edison, "good" according to analysts or "good" according to you. One mans good may very well be anothers excellent or terrible depending on where you are standing and what the expectations are. Personally I was encouraged by the HY result and anticipate further inroads into the maket have been made. How " good" they are remains to be seen. Just wondering at what level "good" kicks in over in your universe.

In answer to post 12867

[Balance]

For the purposes of assisting newbies associated with this thread, ( there may be some left) could you possibly be a little more explicit in what you define as "good". Is this "good" according to research, "good" according to Edison, "good" according to analysts or "good" according to you. One mans good may very well be anothers excellent or terrible depending on where you are standing and what the expectations are. Personally I was encouraged by the HY result and anticipate further inroads into the maket have been made. How " good" they are remains to be seen. Just wondering at what level "good" kicks in over in your universe.

In answer to post 12867

Happy to answer the question if you can state your numbers on what to expect from PEB comes May 2015 for FYE 31 March 2015.

Then we can all compare notes.

[Minerbarejet]

Happy to answer the question if you can state your numbers on what to expect from PEB comes May 2015 for FYE 31 March 2015.

Then we can all compare notes.
Im not getting sucked into that one.
The question was about what level of revenues would constitute a " good result" to you.
Mine would be anything from 4 mill up for Full Year 2015. Of course 7 mill would be excellent and 3 mill not what I wanted to hear at all.
Over

[Tsuba]

Your turn Balance. :cool:

[Balance]

Im not getting sucked into that one.
The question was about what level of revenues would constitute a " good result" to you.
Mine would be anything from 4 mill up for Full Year 2015. Of course 7 mill would be excellent and 3 mill not what I wanted to hear at all.
Over

Thanks for that.

I don't think the market is expecting anything like $4m CxBladder sales revenues for the full year to 31 March 2015 for PEB.

I would say exceeding Forbar's forecast $3.0m CxBaldder sales revenue, representing 4,944 tests sold, is a good result.

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for that.

I don't think the market is expecting anything like $4m CxBladder sales revenues for the full year to 31 March 2015 for PEB.

I would say exceeding Forbar's forecast $3.0m CxBaldder sales revenue, representing 4,944 tests sold, is a good result. Thank you for your candid and explicit reply.
Just to clarify - I did not mention sales revenues, just the full years total from all sources including grants.
It may appear to some that we have a middle ground after all.
I trust it does not turn into no mans land
Over

[MAC]

Thanks for that.

I don't think the market is expecting anything like $4m CxBladder sales revenues for the full year to 31 March 2015 for PEB.

I would say exceeding Forbar's forecast $3.0m CxBaldder sales revenue, representing 4,944 tests sold, is a good result.

Analyst consensus is for FY15 $3.2M revenues, double the half year result of $1.6M inc grants.

I wouldn't be surprised though to see a little outperformance actually given the new sales force, the network providers and insurers have all come on stream within the second half period !

7162

[Balance]

Thank you for your candid and explicit reply.
Just to clarify - I did not mention sales revenues, just the full years total from all sources including grants.
It may appear to some that we have a middle ground after all.
I trust it does not turn into no mans land
Over

I would have thought that the market is really only interested in how PEB's CxBladdder sales (by $ and units sold).

The govt grant ($4.5m over 3 years, and variable year by year based ipon R&D spend) is not a pertinent measure of how PEB is tracking towards its $100m sales target by 2018.

Hence, the Forbar numbers which actually are CxBladder specific.

[Balance]

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/01/pacific_edge_diagnostics_shoul.html

January 2012 : "A New Zealand company that has developed an easy and accurate method for detecting bladder cancer plans to open a facility at Hershey that will bring about 100 marketing and laboratory jobs to the area over the next three years."

March 2015 : A long long way from 100 jobs in the USA, let alone in Hershey!

[Dentie]

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/01/pacific_edge_diagnostics_shoul.html

January 2012 : "A New Zealand company that has developed an easy and accurate method for detecting bladder cancer plans to open a facility at Hershey that will bring about 100 marketing and laboratory jobs to the area over the next three years."

March 2015 : A long long way from 100 jobs in the USA, let alone in Hershey!

Seems like a weak effort doesn't it.

Mind you, back then, PEB were probably thinking CMS, VA, KP et al would well be in the tent by now. Not PEB's fault the yanks are sluggish and wasting time....

We know a horse can be led to the water .... how can you force them to drink it?

[Dentie]

totally PEB's fault for consistently using rhetoric to indicate that all the stars will align for them...... as time goes on even most of the bulls are getting the real picture.

The lesson seems to be then .... do not operate or talk with any "confidence" when you are trying to launch your business or product - especially when trying to pitch it to those that want to be the biggest at everything....

However, there was no time wasted in respect to Mr Rutherford and what his efforts could achieve for those that were interested.

If I get nothing else out of reading this forum, I do get a good laugh from time to time. Today is one of those days ....:p

[Balance]

The lesson seems to be then .... do not operate or talk with any "confidence" when you are trying to launch your business or product - especially when trying to pitch it to those that want to be the biggest at everything....

That's hardly the point.

What Snapiti is alerting to is PEB's performance against the rhetoric of the last three years.

No point blaming the yanks or anyone - it is a question of taking stock and keeping investors alongside with real dialogue about developments, positive and/or negative.

Not the PEB's stance of gilding the lily!

[Dentie]

That's hardly the point.

What Snapiti is alerting to is PEB's performance against the rhetoric of the last three years.

No point blaming the yanks or anyone - it is a question of taking stock and keeping investors alongside with real dialogue about developments, positive and/or negative.

Not the PEB's stance of gilding the lily!

I get Snapiti's point.... which is a very easy one to make "looking back over one's shoulder - AFTER the 3 years". It is always easy to use words like "Rhetoric" as you reflect on what may have been said 3 years ago. At the time those words were said however - I would have called them "confident".

My point is simply that PEB spoke "confidently" about what it was hoping to achieve - in the future. That is how I want them to speak ... I wouldn't be investing in a company that spoke "humbly" or should I say "meekly".

Just because PEB haven't consistently released any updated information doesn't mean it is necessarily negative either. They could very well blow the market away with their next announcement .... who knows?

[Balance]

Just because PEB haven't consistently released any updated information doesn't mean it is necessarily negative either. They could very well blow the market away with their next announcement .... who knows?

This is where a judgement call has been to made based upon the information available out there - not from just the company but from competitors, suppliers etc etc.

Some like Snapiti and I are prepared to make the call.

'Who knows' should be from PEB regularly updating the market with their progress towards $100m revenue - not a happening thing unfortunately (the update thing that is).

[Dentie]

[QUOTE=Balance;562499]This is where a judgement call has been to made based upon the information available out there - not from just the company but from competitors, suppliers etc etc.QUOTE]

Yes - good point Balance....I did canvass PEB's competitors and they all told me how wonderful PEB are - and how they expect PEB's sales to eclipse PEB's own assumptions.

[Minerbarejet]

I get Snapiti's point.... which is a very easy one to make "looking back over one's shoulder - AFTER the 3 years". It is always easy to use words like "Rhetoric" as you reflect on what may have been said 3 years ago. At the time those words were said however - I would have called them "confident".

My point is simply that PEB spoke "confidently" about what it was hoping to achieve - in the future. That is how I want them to speak ... I wouldn't be investing in a company that spoke "humbly" or should I say "meekly".

Just because PEB haven't consistently released any updated information doesn't mean it is necessarily negative either. They could very well blow the market away with their next announcement .... who knows?
And just to back that up, the famous words were as reported by ODT " Mr Swann was confident that the company will processing " several tens of thousands of tests" next year.
A. Confidence was not expressed verbally by Mr Swann. Mr Swanns demeanour exhibited confidence that the reporter reported
B. The word be after will is missing.
C. It says tests processed, not sales made. Who knows how many user program tests have been done that are not paid for.
11000 urologists times " Hi guys, here are 20 free tests each just to get you started and let you know what we are all about"
Even at three tests each its still a doer.

[MAC]

I don’t think it’s at all improbable either Miner that quite a lot of user programme tests have been undertaken actually now that the sales force has been hired.

Pacific Edge geographically have regional coverage now for over 30% of those 11,000 Urologists.

Even if just 10% of those Urologists have been offered a 25 test mini user programme, that would be 8,000 tests undertaken on top of sales.

Some folk may feel a bit discredited if Pacific Edge report that more than 5,056 user programme tests have been undertaken.


I would say exceeding Forbar's forecast $3.0m CxBaldder sales revenue, representing 4,944 tests sold, is a good result.

[Minerbarejet]

I don’t think it’s at all improbable either Miner that quite a lot of user programme tests have been undertaken actually now that the sales force has been hired.

Pacific Edge geographically have regional coverage now for over 30% of those 11,000 Urologists.

Even if just 10% of those Urologists have been offered a 25 test mini user programme, that would be 8,000 tests undertaken on top of sales.

Some folk may feel a bit discredited if Pacific Edge report that more than 5,056 user programme tests have been undertaken.
Its a hard game we are playing here trying to figure out long range what a company is doing. The only things we can rely on are the HY and FY results and any other information they are obliged to reveal by announcements to the market. Any pleas for updates, hows it going, additional info will be largely ignored as it appears all of that will be via Edison when they get a round tooit. So its wait and stew, wait and stew for a few months yet.
Unless of course something flies out of the woodwork unexpectedly; you never can be sure with this lot and the area of expertise in which they are involved.
That 30 percent of urologists would appear to be in very high density areas and also include a lot of retirees, Florida and California so the chances of higher numbers of unfortunates increases with those factors. The chances of an urologist getting much clientele in Mizpah-Pumpkin, Montana pop 404 would seem remote unless of course they are all firefighters and smoke.

[skid]

I think that something will have to fly out of the woodwork (kaiser?) to have a good sales result--Has to be a deal. I dont think even 12 sales staff will do it.(especially exponential growth) That really, is what everyone is waiting for --I dont think they can do it completely on their own.

If this ship is going to sail--we should be looking for more than just the normal sales report. IMO

May,would be stretching being ''the beginning of the year''---should be word before that

[MAC]

Well let’s all see then on reporting day, analyst consensus is $3.2M revenues, lot's of business happening behind the scenes at Pacific Edge indeed.


I’ve received this recently from a reliable source;

“We currently submit claims and are being paid by these insurance companies under a molecular test CPT code, which gives us the opportunity to be reimbursed on a case by case basis. Using this strategy, we are receiving reimbursement from all the major insurers including Cigna, Aetna, United, BCBS, Humana, Medicare Advantage plans, and many of the 2nd tier insurers. While the process is long and complex, we are pleased that our reimbursement is going to plan. Once we secure coverage in the public sector (Medicare), we will look to engage insurers Cigna and other major commercial insurers for formal inclusion in the policy as well as negotiate being a contracted provider if we feel it’s in our best interest moving forward”

Nice to see the strategic sales team, recently hired, doing as they do.

Cigna, Aetna, United, BCBS and Humana together provide insurance cover for 215M Americans, another 40M or so are covered by Medicare Advantage plans.

All the doors are now open for Pacific Edge for the sales team to ramp up into.

Would be satisfying to see a step up in revenues, and with quite a helpful US exchange rate too :)

[Balance]

Well let’s all see then on reporting day, analyst consensus is $3.2M revenues, lot's of business happening behind the scenes at Pacific Edge indeed.

Or little business happening - don't discount that scenario.

Let's see if Forbar's forecast of $3m CxBladder sales for FYE 31 March 2015 is met.

[Balance]

Its a hard game we are playing here trying to figure out long range what a company is doing. The only things we can rely on are the HY and FY results and any other information they are obliged to reveal by announcements to the market. Any pleas for updates, hows it going, additional info will be largely ignored as it appears all of that will be via Edison when they get a round tooit. So its wait and stew, wait and stew for a few months yet.

That's not true actually.

It may be a hard game for those who rely purely on information from the company, in which case, you are at a huge strategic disadvantage against others in the market who have access to other sources of information.

Analysts in the market (be them with broking houses or fund managers) get access to a whole range of information to monitor an industry and a stock proactively.

This include analysts' visits to a company, meeting with management, competitors, suppliers, customers etc etc.

That's how fund managers like Milford accumulate big stakes in DIL, BFW etc at rock bottom prices before the rest of the market woke up to what's happening.

[Minerbarejet]

Gee, Balance, if I didnt know you any better I'd say you were talking about insider information.
I will stay out of that if you dont mind.

[Balance]

Gee, Balance, if I didnt know you any better I'd say you were talking about insider information.
I will stay out of that if you dont mind.

Welcome to the real world of brokers and fund managers.

PS. When a broker gets done for insider trading for doing an earnings upgrade or downgrade after visiting a company, please let us know.

:D

[Minerbarejet]

Welcome to the real world of brokers and fund managers.

PS. When a broker gets done for insider trading for doing an earnings upgrade or downgrade after visiting a company, please let us know.

:D
That would depend on what takes place between the visit and the up/downgrade being made public over in their universe
And anyway I said information not trading. Gosh, who would have thought anyone would do such a thing. Tsk Tsk

[Balance]

That would depend on what takes place between the visit and the up/downgrade being made public over in their universe
And anyway I said information not trading. Gosh, who would have thought anyone would do such a thing. Tsk Tsk

Insider information leads to insider trading charges.

When an investor get done for using information he obtains via contacts external to a company, please let us know too.

[skid]

That would depend on what takes place between the visit and the up/downgrade being made public over in their universe
And anyway I said information not trading. Gosh, who would have thought anyone would do such a thing. Tsk Tsk

Heres the scenario--You either think some institutions have access to information that can give them an advantage or you dont--keep in mind there is a whole range of information ranging from having better access to things that simply help with research, to outright illegal behind the scenes tips--I personally am under no illusions that all happen. The world of high finance and even institutions is not big on morality in many cases.---just dont get caught.

I think most have noticed the sign that someone is in the know when the SP has a ''flurry'' sometimes before the actual event.

When your in the club-things can happen.
Sitting around at lunch with you CEO mates--one says ''I cant get into details (ofcourse) but Im in a very very good mood today''

*** Edit--Balance sqeaked in before me on this one--Looks like we were giving examplkes of both sides of the coin:)

[Balance]

Heres the scenario--You either think some institutions have access to information that can give them an advantage or you dont--keep in mind there is a whole range of information ranging from having better access to things that simply help with research, to outright illegal behind the scenes tips--I personally am under no illusions that all happen. The world of high finance and even institutions is not big on morality in many cases.---just dont get caught.

I think most have noticed the sign that someone is in the know when the SP has a ''flurry'' sometimes before the actual event.

When your in the club-things can happen.
Sitting around at lunch with you CEO mates--one says ''I cant get into details (ofcourse) but Im in a very very good mood today''

Exactly, skid.

But let's use a few real life examples :

Example 1 : an investor hears from one of his customers that xyz company is not paying its bills and is asking for extended credit. He bails out of the shares and a week later, xyz co goes belly up. Is that insider information and insider trading?

Example 2 : an investor went to an IPO presentation and learns that the IPO company is going to launch a new product which will sell for 1/3rd of xyz's product and is just as good, if not better. He bails out of his xyz shares and a month later, xyz shares drop by 75%. Is that insider information and insider trading?

Example 3 : an investor visits xyz company's warehouse while collecting some goods and the manager tells him that 'business is really slow' and 'the company is having to lay a lot of staff off'. Investor sold out of xzy shares and a month later, the company announced an earnings downgrade. The sp drops by 50%. Insider information?

[Minerbarejet]

Like I said Ill just stay out of it.

[Balance]

Like I said Ill just stay out of it.

You are well advised to do so.


:D

[blackcap]

Exactly, skid.

But let's use a few real life examples :

Example 1 : an investor hears from one of his customers that xyz company is not paying its bills and is asking for extended credit. He bails out of the shares and a week later, xyz co goes belly up. Is that insider information and insider trading?

Example 2 : an investor went to an IPO presentation and learns that the IPO company is going to launch a new product which will sell for 1/3rd of xyz's product and is just as good, if not better. He bails out of his xyz shares and a month later, xyz shares drop by 75%. Is that insider information and insider trading?

Example 3 : an investor visits xyz company's warehouse while collecting some goods and the manager tells him that 'business is really slow' and 'the company is having to lay a lot of staff off'. Investor sold out of xzy shares and a month later, the company announced an earnings downgrade. The sp drops by 50%. Insider information?

I would venture to say that not one of your examples is a form of insider information or trading.

[Balance]

I am sure Chelsea Leadbetter would be interested to know that her hard work and analysis that has gone into producing the item is now known as "For Barr stuff".:)

Lets not forget that she was an attendee at the Investors Day and is privy to more visual information in relation to PEB than we are ever likely to see.

Glad you like the chart, skid, time to move on, eh?

Hmmm .... So when PEB organized an Investor Day in Hershey and those attending met the staff there and no doubt had some interaction over the day, I wonder if that constitute Insider information?

[barney]

Hmmm .... So when PEB organized an Investor Day in Hershey and those attending met the staff there and no doubt had some interaction over the day, I wonder if that constitute Insider information?

I'm sure if any shareholder wanted to attend an investor day or visit the Hershey or Dunedin labs they would be more than welcomed by the companies management. Obviously they would get to talk with employees and lab staff, that doesn't constitute insider information. No different to talking with staff at the annual meeting. At all the meetings I have attended over the years there have always been lab and research staff present. The company has no problems with this.

[Tsuba]

Yawn........ Glad I have chooks to feed.......

[Balance]

I'm sure if any shareholder wanted to attend an investor day or visit the Hershey or Dunedin labs they would be more than welcomed by the companies management. Obviously they would get to talk with employees and lab staff, that doesn't constitute insider information. No different to talking with staff at the annual meeting. At all the meetings I have attended over the years there have always been lab and research staff present. The company has no problems with this.

I agree 100% with you.

My comments are really to put things in context :

1. Don't rely purely on companies to supply you with information.

2. Information obtained via external sources can be more reliable and more objective.


That's not true actually.

It may be a hard game for those who rely purely on information from the company, in which case, you are at a huge strategic disadvantage against others in the market who have access to other sources of information.

Analysts in the market (be them with broking houses or fund managers) get access to a whole range of information to monitor an industry and a stock proactively.

This include analysts' visits to a company, meeting with management, competitors, suppliers, customers etc etc.

That's how fund managers like Milford accumulate big stakes in DIL, BFW etc at rock bottom prices before the rest of the market woke up to what's happening.



Gee, Balance, if I didnt know you any better I'd say you were talking about insider information.
I will stay out of that if you dont mind.

[skid]

Like I said Ill just stay out of it.

You dont have to ''get in'' to insider trading to accept the fact that to varying degrees it can exist(and take it into consideration when making investment decisions)--You probably would not be privy to that information anyway-like most of us.
But look at all the energy us posters spend to try to make sense of all those tid bits of info.
Its hard to believe that some(of course not you)would not prick up their ears if they had a friend whose cousin was coming for a visit and it happened he worked in the lab in Hershey and had some ''man you would'nt believe''stories to tell.--Actually ,now that I think about it,Im guessing you,and just about everyone else around here would not want to stay out of that conversation.---We should be so lucky.

we would probably find it quite interesting to hear him say ''the last few months we have been working our butts off'' OR ''i didnt go through Uni to just sitaround most of the time playing cards''

Of course that would be quite different than attending an open day

[Minerbarejet]

You dont have to ''get in'' to insider trading to accept the fact that to varying degrees it can exist(and take it into consideration when making investment decisions)--You probably would not be privy to that information anyway-like most of us.
But look at all the energy us posters spend to try to make sense of all those tid bits of info.
Its hard to believe that some(of course not you)would not prick up their ears if they had a friend whose cousin was coming for a visit and it happened he worked in the lab in Hershey and had some ''man you would'nt believe''stories to tell.--Actually ,now that I think about it,Im guessing you,and just about everyone else around here would not want to stay out of that conversation.---We should be so lucky.

we would probably find it quite interesting to hear him say ''the last few months we have been working our butts off'' OR ''i didnt go through Uni to just sitaround most of the time playing cards''

Of course that would be quite different than attending an open dayI have taken the time to enquire from my brokers Francois et Ouvert des Cussion. 20 rue des Epancheurs, Neuchatel, Suisse regarding anything from PEB. They said to keep my ears pricked. At least I think thats what they said but something may have got lost in the translation.

[skid]

Sometimes that French can be confusing.....Are you sure they werent saying ''quit calling me, you P_ _ _ _":):):):)


On a more serious note--Ive just been looking through the Kaiser Permente web site and trying to find the trial under their research projects---Holy Mac! there are pages of them--tried searching and scrolling under ''cancer''(theres a whole list of topics) but havent had any luck.
Is it possible a trial is not considered reasearch--couldnt find anything about trials.
Any one else know where to look?

I started here

https://healthy.kaiserpermanente.org/health/care/!ut/p/a0/FchRDoIwDADQs3CApiIMqH9LLFfQ7a9pFlzCClkWvb76-R5GfGI0eedNWj5M9p-DJmup3lRMU8UHRoxnla0IBjtARV_pf1Jb1j1hGHld58FNQINn6 Hu-AJEnoNG5-zLTdWLGs5Tl47vuC0F5nVc!/

though I might get an idea how close to the finish the study was..

[Minerbarejet]

Thats what I thought for a minute.:):):):)
However Frank and Open Des Cussion has been quite useful in the past.

[Balance]

I have taken the time to enquire from my brokers Francois et Ouvert des Cussion. 20 rue des Epancheurs, Neuchatel, Suisse regarding anything from PEB. They said to keep my ears pricked. At least I think thats what they said but something may have got lost in the translation.

Like something got lost ion the translation here?


I’m sorry to have to say that you may well be disappointed in your analysis Whipmoney, PEB told us at the time of the AGM that they could break even this financial year [1]. IMHO it’s more likely to be HY15 (November 2014).

My estimate is that this would require circa 21,000 US tests to cover costs and to turn a profit, but then as we know, PEB have already also told us that they expect to be “processing several tens of thousands of tests” within 2014 [2].

And well yes, most informed shareholders would actually see R&D as a positive within a company like PEB full of extraordinary research people and with a history of performing such R&D at one tenth the cost of what it may otherwise cost abroad [3].

The more well managed R&D, the more products entering the commercialisation pipeline, the more long term cashflows generated, fantastic.

References:

1. http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-100m-forecast (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/269976/pacific-edge-100m-forecast)
2. http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-edge-business (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/286676/pacific-edge-business)
3. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11178639 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11178639)

[Xerof]

Come on Hindsight Harry, this is one of your very poor habits, regurgitating old posts months after events have overtaken the content. This is insidious, sneering mockery in my view, entirely uncalled for.

cease and desist dear boy!

I have my QC from Rhetoric, Innuendo and Sons on standby:D

[Snow Leopard]

...On a more serious note--Ive just been looking through the Kaiser Permente web site and trying to find the trial under their research projects---Holy Mac! there are pages of them--tried searching and scrolling under ''cancer''(theres a whole list of topics) but havent had any luck.
Is it possible a trial is not considered reasearch--couldnt find anything about trials.
Any one else know where to look?...

Actual it is not a clinical trial, just some user program research (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/cxbladder-user-program-research-agreement-signed-with-kaiser-permanente-southern-california/).

Would not like to bet (i.e. by owning PEB shares) on what the financial outcome of it will be.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

Come on Hindsight Harry, this is one of your very poor habits, regurgitating old posts months after events have overtaken the content. This is insidious, sneering mockery in my view, entirely uncalled for.

cease and desist dear boy!

I have my QC from Rhetoric, Innuendo and Sons on standby:D

Fair enough, Xerof but I brought the post up in the context of how much reliance investors and market put on utterances from PEB, official and/or official - in the light of the discussion today about information sources and insider information etc.

What can be ascertained from the links (August 2013 and Dec 2013 articles) are :

1. $100m gross revenues by 2018,

2. 'Takeover' ramp by Darling,

3. Re-iteration of $100m by Chairman,

4. "several tens of thousands of tests'' next year' comment by Chairman,

5. Reference to PEB being a takeover prospect again,

6. CMS approval in early 2014,

7. "protected its intellectual property well and ''was likely several years ahead'' of competitors catching up".

We can see why the market got super-excited about PEB's prospects and aggressively bid the stock up in the context of the extremely bullish comments in the articles to the 'dizzy' heights.

I shared the same sentiments at that time (been around so should have known better) but history records that when PEB started slipping behind all the above, and made no effort to account for the severe slippages, I turned negative on its prospects.

[Minerbarejet]

Yes, and the associated document does not mention triage at all, but thats what it turned out to be. So can we take from that a Mid Central trial has taken place with Triage as the focus and the result is the launch of Triage in NZ?

[Snow Leopard]

Yes, and the associated document does not mention triage at all, but thats what it turned out to be. So can we take from that a Mid Central trial has taken place with Triage as the focus and the result is the launch of Triage in NZ?

NO.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

NO.

Best Wishes
Paper TigerCare to reevaluate? Last paragraph of your user program research link would indicate other than NO to me.
In hindsight it has Triage " written all over it"

[skid]

Actual it is not a clinical trial, just some user program research (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/cxbladder-user-program-research-agreement-signed-with-kaiser-permanente-southern-california/).

Would not like to bet (i.e. by owning PEB shares) on what the financial outcome of it will be.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

One thing that struck me was how many research projects they have going(well over 100)
I guess i got the impression that the trial was more than 1 out of hundreds of considerations-and now it appears its not even in that category.
I guess that means its not going to be easy to get any info on the progress--no sign of cx or PEB anywhere.
Im sure they will announce when they get info,but yes ,it appears to be small potatoes atm.
Once again I am struck by the enormity of the medical world and although we know it is a good product and can certainly save lives,it is just one minnow in a large sea --it is not going to rock the world.
Couldnt help but notice That ''A'' competitor funding some of the research projects (not bladder cancer) Will PEB get steamrolled? Hopefully the competition will not see a small co. in 1 area enough of a threat to go for that.
Maybe somewhere in that maize is mention of PEB ,but I cant find it. I would have thought if Kaiser is going to ''partner up'' with some one it would come up on their web search.

[skid]

Come on Hindsight Harry, this is one of your very poor habits, regurgitating old posts months after events have overtaken the content. This is insidious, sneering mockery in my view, entirely uncalled for.

cease and desist dear boy!

I have my QC from Rhetoric, Innuendo and Sons on standby:D

I must admit that when I went back and read posts from a year ago to try and get some perspective that very post jumped out at me.
With out slagging ,it does show how different things were back at that time. We learn from things like that,if for no other reason than to know how much emphasis to give to statements made and those who made them.
Its helpful to know that when someone makes a statement ,it is another of the many similar statements made from the get go,so we can then decide whether it is objective or not-that goes for the company as well--a ''track record''if you like.

Having said that, if its just a slagging match,then I would agree with you

[Balance]

I must admit that when I went back and read posts from a year ago to try and get some perspective that very post jumped out at me.
With out slagging ,it does show how different things were back at that time. We learn from things like that,if for no other reason than to know how much emphasis to give to statements made and those who made them.
Its helpful to know that when someone makes a statement ,it is another of the many similar statements made from the get go,so we can then decide whether it is objective or not-that goes for the company as well--a ''track record''if you like.

Having said that, if its just a slagging match,then I would agree with you

Ain't no slagging match - it's about learnings.

And in this case, it is indeed about PEB's track record - the way that PEB deliberately makes extremely bullish statements with no follow-up.

As the CEO of the firm I used to work for as a cadet said 'it's all about the learnings when you move through the ranks and you cannot do that without scrutiny and learning from the past.'

Go to my post #12912 and it is impossible not to review the comments made by PEB without becoming extremely cynical.

Does not help that PEB raised capital capital after all those super bullish comments and some shareholders like Masfen, Darling and Swann sold down shares as well.

[slack]

Another patent announcement, this time for CXbladder in India:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/261494

Some comments from DD:
“While it is important for the Company to seek patent protection in key jurisdictions, our main focus continues to be building sales momentum in the US, the world’s largest healthcare market, where we have just now started into our second year of commercial operations. Laboratory through-put is tracking to the company’s expectations following an active direct sales and marketing program to clinicians and healthcare organisations. Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA has twelve dedicated sales executives operating in key geographic regions.”

[Dentie]

Does not help that PEB raised capital capital after all those super bullish comments and some shareholders like Masfen, Darling and Swann sold down shares as well.

Did you sell any of your PEB shares when the price was above $1.20?

[skid]

Did you sell any of your PEB shares when the price was above $1.20?

We can only speculate on the executives intentions when selling --but it is something share holders should take note of --conversely if they purchased more-it would be a good sign.(its basic 101 in the art of investing in shares)

If normal share holders decided to sell after --thats fair enough

[Balance]

Another patent announcement, this time for CXbladder in India:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/261494

Some comments from DD:
“While it is important for the Company to seek patent protection in key jurisdictions, our main focus continues to be building sales momentum in the US, the world’s largest healthcare market, where we have just now started into our second year of commercial operations. Laboratory through-put is tracking to the company’s expectations following an active direct sales and marketing program to clinicians and healthcare organisations. Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA has twelve dedicated sales executives operating in key geographic regions.”

Notice 'through-put' rather than sales? Plenty of free user program tests going through?

As for 'expectations', is this the updated latest expectations or the last one?

Tracking to $100m in 2018, 2019 or 2021?

[Balance]

Did you sell any of your PEB shares when the price was above $1.20?

Relevance of your question?

[Minerbarejet]

Notice 'through-put' rather than sales? Plenty of free user program tests going through?

As for 'expectations', is this the updated latest expectations or the last one?

Tracking to $100m in 2018, 2019 or 2021?
Wasting your time, Balance.
We all know that they are doing sales and user programs together in the same lab.
Hope they are doing heaps of FUPTs. Augers well
The expectations are bound to be the latest, it only came out this morning.:)

Wouldnt place too much emphasis on 100 mill, it has been stated quite clearly that it is a median figure.
Could be anything from 50 mill to 150 mill.
What is critical however is becoming cashflow positive and keeping it that way while building the business up.

[Balance]

Wasting your time, Balance.
We all know that they are doing sales and user programs together in the same lab.
Hope they are doing heaps of FUPTs. Augers well
The expectations are bound to be the latest, it only came out this morning.:)

Wouldnt place too much emphasis on 100 mill, it has been stated quite clearly that it is a median figure.
Could be anything from 50 mill to 150 mill.
What is critical however is becoming cashflow positive and keeping it that way while building the business up.

Now let me get this right :

So PEB can keep reducing their expectations and still meet expectations?

Competition does not stand still in the shadows.

Likewise the cash PEB has does not last forever if the timeline to the fabled $100m keeps getting pushed out further and further.

[Snow Leopard]

Care to reevaluate? Last paragraph of your user program research link would indicate other than NO to me.
In hindsight it has Triage " written all over it"

Reevaluate? NO.

Whilst Balance thinks that PEB announcements are nearly as worthless as his own posts they do actually contain useful information.

So we knew about the Mid Central thing already.
Just do a little of your own research.

Best Wishes
paper tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Now let me get this right :

So PEB can keep reducing their expectations and still meet expectations?

Competition does not stand still in the shadows.

Likewise the cash PEB has does not last forever if the timeline to the fabled $100m keeps getting pushed out further and further.PEB can change their expectations upwards as well as downwards any old time they feel like it.
It is not a crime worthy of excommunication, banishment to purgatory or " To the stocks with ye" to be pelted with tomatoes and dead possums by enraged citizens.
We are aware there is competition and it is not underestimated.
Cash positive will take care of it long before any 100 mill comes up. At the point of cash positive for a year I would start considering the company as successful. But you keep the" 100 mill fable" going if you want to, its OK by me, cant vouch for others though.
Over and out.

[Dentie]

Relevance of your question?

Just a simple question Balance.

[Minerbarejet]

Reevaluate? NO.

Whilst Balance thinks that PEB announcements are nearly as worthless as his own posts they do actually contain useful information.

So we knew about the Mid Central thing already.
Just do a little of your own research.

Best Wishes
paper tigerSorry, you are breaking up.

[skid]

Just a simple question Balance.

Maybe I can clarify the question at least= Your asking what is the difference between a company executive or CEO selling a block of shares(usually a substantial block ) with that of a normal share trader buying or selling shares.I guess the first thing to take into consideration is why the NZX requires the disclosure in the first place(in terms of interest)
The very nature of having to give notice is that it potentially has an effect on the SP---obviously these executives have privy to information that we as shareholders do not have,so there is a potential for conflict of interest.
I dont think it is relevant to compare these executive disclosers (and transactions)to ordinary share investors buying and selling--its just not the same thing---Its is possible though, in many cases that these executive transactions have a direct affect on ordinary buying and selling.

[Dentie]

Maybe I can clarify the question at least= Your asking what is the difference between a company executive or CEO selling a block of shares(usually a substantial block ) with that of a normal share trader buying or selling shares.I guess the first thing to take into consideration is why the NZX requires the disclosure in the first place(in terms of interest)
The very nature of having to give notice is that it potentially has an effect on the SP---obviously these executives have privy to information that we as shareholders do not have,so there is a potential for conflict of interest.
I dont think it is relevant to compare these executive disclosers (and transactions)to ordinary share investors buying and selling--its just not the same thing---Its is possible though, in many cases that these executive transactions have a direct affect on ordinary buying and selling.

No, I was simply asking Balance if he sold any PEB shares above $1.20. But seeing you appear to be answering for him/her Skid...

I am quite aware why the NZX has rules governing disclosure by related parties. But I think in this instance, it is drawing a long bow to suggest the related parties selling had an effect on the SP - or that they were ramping the price up by their comments - just so they could sell at an increased profit. In fact, I mentioned in a recent post that, contrary to some popular belief, the amount of shares they sold seems to be totally insignificant - compared to their overall level of holding. I think a lot of the recent comments about these related parties is very mischievous - at best... and probably worth looking into further to be honest. Hence the comment about retaining a QC!

If these related parties had sold a large portion of their holdings (say, > 50 to 60%), then you might be onto something but other than that - they are quite entitled to sell like everyone else. Why should they be excluded? If Balance (or anyone else) sold their shares for anything more than $1.20, then it would appear to me they were doing it to profit largely....which is also their right. (Disc....I sold a few at $1.56 so my profit could buy more at the CR prices).

I'm more interested in looking at who initiates those big spikes (against the buying trend) just before the big announcements. They are the ones the NZX and FMA should be interested in. Before any excitement...no, I don't mean with PEB...I am talking generally across the market.

At the end of the day, maybe it's just envy or greed or whatever....but I don't think this is an issue that warrants sanctimonious comments from some that may not even be holding any PEB shares.

[skid]

Im not personally making any assumptions about why the executives sold-(they may simply have observed that Shareholders were getting silly and getting ahead of them selves---But it does often have an affect on the SP (and Should be taken into consideration)

Generally --big wigs buy more share and increase thier holdings =good news (think about buying more yourself)
Big wigs sell...=caution,,think about selling or reducing
Remember it goes both ways--DD increases his holdings tomorrow=it would be good sign (to put into the equation as to what you do)

DD selling could have easily had an adverse affect on the SP last year without him actually doing anything inherently wrong

As for those initiating the big spikes -yes thats who the NZX should be interested in (in an ideal world)but i wouldnt hold your breath.

Im afraid the system is set up in their favor (along with large campaign donations to get your guy in in the US ,who then appoints you or your mates in an office that gives them the power to make decisions that benefit your corp.-think haliburton--etc-etc-etc----Its just one of the many things we have to put up with until someone has the guts to change(and doesnt mind political suicide-----sorry -bit off track:(

[skid]

No, I was simply asking Balance if he sold any PEB shares above $1.20. But seeing you appear to be answering for him/her Skid...

I am quite aware why the NZX has rules governing disclosure by related parties. But I think in this instance, it is drawing a long bow to suggest the related parties selling had an effect on the SP - or that they were ramping the price up by their comments - just so they could sell at an increased profit. In fact, I mentioned in a recent post that, contrary to some popular belief, the amount of shares they sold seems to be totally insignificant - compared to their overall level of holding. I think a lot of the recent comments about these related parties is very mischievous - at best... and probably worth looking into further to be honest. Hence the comment about retaining a QC!

If these related parties had sold a large portion of their holdings (say, > 50 to 60%), then you might be onto something but other than that - they are quite entitled to sell like everyone else. Why should they be excluded? If Balance (or anyone else) sold their shares for anything more than $1.20, then it would appear to me they were doing it to profit largely....which is also their right. (Disc....I sold a few at $1.56 so my profit could buy more at the CR prices).

I'm more interested in looking at who initiates those big spikes (against the buying trend) just before the big announcements. They are the ones the NZX and FMA should be interested in. Before any excitement...no, I don't mean with PEB...I am talking generally across the market.

At the end of the day, maybe it's just envy or greed or whatever....but I don't think this is an issue that warrants sanctimonious comments from some that may not even be holding any PEB shares.

Keep in mind there may be alot of investors trying to decide whether to buy(not even holding)..or sell--they deserve both sides of the debate IMO

[Dentie]

Keep in mind there may be alot of investors trying to decide whether to buy(not even holding)..or sell--they deserve both sides of the debate IMO

Thanks for reminding me....what ever happened to the much vaunted (& much hackneyed!!) cautionary phrase ... DYOR ... which posters seem to do - right after they have written their "be careful" and "criticism" types of advice etc??

As the saying goes ...you can't have it both ways.

[skid]

I suppose there could just be a giant DYOR and then there would be no need for any posts for or against.

I couldnt help but notice that the ''jump in boots and all'' was missing from your example (both of course should have a DYOR.)

I was responding to your example of comments by those who may not even be holding--To me it seems perfectly logical that those who feel caution is required may not be holding. (until which time indicators point towards reconsidering that position.)

I realize you are commenting on what you consider the extreme cases,(in terms of caution)but there are more moderate views that still lean in that direction..dont throw the baby out with the bath water.

At some point we will find out if the management are doing the product justice.

[Balance]

For newies as part of your DYOR :

Bold on bullish statements but timid when it comes to staking real numbers for the market to track the bold statements - that's PEB if you monitor the company and this thread.

Market is a point now whereby all the announcements coming out from PEB about registering patents, new products etc are big yawns.

Any exuberance by the bulls in the sp from the announcements may lead to a short term sp spike of a few cents (as happened on 24th Feb announcements) but is now used as selling opportunities by those who are wising up to PEB.

Too many examples now of elastic numbers from PEB : including government grants in revenues, showing cash burn without using short term deposits run-down etc.

[Balance]

Two Really Strategic & Important Market Releases are needed, forget the rest, unless it’s a ‘curve ball’ ………


A Patent in India is of no consequence if there are no immediate plans to establish a market. But, it may be really important if there are developments that we are not aware of; I don’t think that is the case however, because Pacific Edge has advised they are focusing on the America market.


NEED TO SEE. Centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services sign up to CxBladder.



NEED TO SEE. Veterans Administration Hospitals sign up to CxBladder.



Good points re the NEED TO SEE, Hancocks.

Pertinent to CMS :

PEB commenced discussions and negotiations with CMS in June 2013 with the aim of completing a deal by August 2014. It's 6 months after Aug 2014 and conspicuously, PEB has not provided any update or made any mention of CMS in its AGM and the commentary in its half year's results. The slippage in getting a CMS deal means at its best a delay in PEB achieving 'expected' sales, or at its worse, something fundamentally amiss.

[Whipmoney]

Good points re the NEED TO SEE, Hancocks.

Pertinent to CMS :

PEB commenced discussions and negotiations with CMS in June 2013 with the aim of completing a deal by August 2014. It's 6 months after Aug 2014 and conspicuously, PEB has not provided any update or made any mention of CMS in its AGM and the commentary in its half year's results. The slippage in getting a CMS deal means at its best a delay in PEB achieving 'expected' sales, or at its worse, something fundamentally amiss.

It's a grey swan.. it could happen tomorrow for all you know.

[Balance]

It's a grey swan.. it could happen tomorrow for all you know.

Or a black swan?

Based upon the lack of real progress with the other HUGE national networks PEB signed up in 2013, no point holding one's breath even if CMS signs up that it's going to be a boomer for CxBladder sales.

PEB initiated user programs in 2013 to try and convert urologists and is still doing it today!

[MAC]

Pacific Edge advise within their billing policy that;

“Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder”

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/billing-policy/

Unlike yourself, some of us bothered to go to the August AGM in Dunedin, where shareholders were advised by the CEO, at that time, that Pacific Edge were effectively stacking invoices ready to forward for payment upon an agreement to do so, good progress to that point.

Then, during the HY report conference call the CEO advised us that Medicare were accumulating a dossier of validation, that means study and clinical setting user programme outcomes. Many of which were complete at that time with an intention of preparing a multi-centre international study paper.

Since then it has come to our attention that Pacific Edge are now being reimbursed under Medicare Advantage Plans.

The CMS adoption process is not a black and white switch, there are a sequential series of process steps that must be undertaken.

In the big picture Pacific Edge are more or less relatively on track under that process, but oh don’t allow all that to get in the way of your relentless down ramping.

[Balance]

Pacific Edge advise within their billing policy that;

“Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder”

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/billing-policy/

Unlike yourself, some of us bothered to go to the August AGM in Dunedin, where shareholders were advised by the CEO, at that time, that Pacific Edge were effectively stacking invoices ready to forward for payment upon an agreement to do so, good progress to that point.

Then, during the HY report conference call the CEO advised us that Medicare were accumulating a dossier of validation, that means study and clinical setting user programme outcomes. Many of which were complete at that time with an intention of preparing a multi-centre international study paper.

Since then it has come to our attention that Pacific Edge are now being reimbursed under Medicare Advantage Plans.

The CMS adoption process is not a black and white switch, there are a sequential series of process steps that must be undertaken.

In the big picture Pacific Edge are more or less relatively on track under that process, but oh don’t allow all that to get in the way of your relentless down ramping.


Anyone who critically evaluates PEB's track record of bullish promises but not delivering is down ramping?

You are starting to sound like the bulls with Pike River Coal and NZOG and yes, Snakk.

Shudder!

[MAC]

Good luck to you.

[Dentie]

This appears to be a two person tag team .... look who's turn it is today.

[Balance]

Good luck to you.

Remember this?

"I’m sorry to have to say that you may well be disappointed in your analysis Whipmoney, PEB told us at the time of the AGM that they could break even this financial year [1]. IMHO it’s more likely to be HY15 (November 2014).

My estimate is that this would require circa 21,000 US tests to cover costs and to turn a profit, but then as we know, PEB have already also told us that they expect to be “processing several tens of thousands of tests” within 2014 [2]."

In all seriousness, this is the danger of taking PEB's executives and Board at their words to get really upbeat and bullish with the stock.

Not so much good luck as good analysis and monitoring of the hype around PEB.

[Xerof]

Deja vu, all over again.

[Minerbarejet]

Hey Miner. Your turn. We want some humor. ;)
Too busy building a chicken coop, well it sort of looks like a chicken coop, suppose if I made it a bit bigger I could get one of them grey or black swans for it. Do they lay lotsa eggs?:)

Actually I might put wheels under it in the middle and build a dog kennel down the other end just for balance.

[Tsuba]

Too busy building a chicken coop, well it sort of looks like a chicken coop, suppose if I made it a bit bigger I could get one of them grey or black swans for it. Do they lay lotsa eggs?

Yes if you get a Swan the production will be worthy of a chart.

I am quietly confident you will get 10s of thousands of eggs. ;) And even with a dog kennel down the other end it will be very hard for the Balance to shift away from that big pile of eggs.

[Schrodinger]

Alright:

To scale this business and leverage all the investment to date will require success in the USA. This is where the majority of investment has gone

It is good to see he MCap reduce to semi realistic levels and hopefully this has flushed out the short term opportunists

I will be looking for rapid organic growth (excluding gifts and non core revenue) near the 100%+ level for the best case scenario. My analysis is on the assumption they take the business through to 100 m rev only on the last capital raise

Based on previous posters the consensus is 3.2m. Not sure if this was pure core op revenue or including grants. Would love the revenue broken into segments but not expecting it. Based on growth assumptions that most of this revenue is the USA then this will either derisk the chance they will miss the goal or confirm that they will reach it

I am still sticking by the 100m figure by 2017 as this was the initial indication from DD. My reasoning is that they don't give actual forecasts for upcoming periods so this is the closest one will get to test or judge the management capability

If they miss their targets is doesn't mean the company is a failure it just means the current valuation is too high and a lot of investors will be nursing paper losses for sometime. Subsequent capital raises or low revenue growth will impact MCap and hence valuation readjustment

Just my thoughts and not currently interested in a position but wil assessing due course

[Minerbarejet]

Yes if you get a Swan the production will be worthy of a chart.
Lol. Tens of thousands of Swanns should add up to a fair old pile. Guess I will have to build a lake as well.
Now what could I call it?:)

[Tsuba]

Lol. Tens of thousands of Swanns should add up to a fair old pile. Guess I will have to build a lake as well.
Now what could I call it?:)

On the Balance of probabilities I think Swann Lake would be a good name.

[Minerbarejet]

On the Balance of probabilities I think Swann Lake would be a good name.



due to the drought I was thinking that Swanndry might be better but I will have to get the Dogs cygnet chewer on that.:)

Right, so back to the frank and open discussion and that great post with a lot of information regarding NMP22 and Matritech from Hancocks.

[skid]

Two Really Strategic & Important Market Releases are needed, forget the rest, unless it’s a ‘curve ball’ ………

Some of youse fellas seem to be having a damn good time with this thread and it is being done as a noble gesture to protect new and inexperienced investors in what is undoubtedly a spec stock - and I say “good on you” however, I think some posts are getting a bit too immoderate and effusive.

A Patent in India is of no consequence if there are no immediate plans to establish a market. But, it may be really important if there are developments that we are not aware of; I don’t think that is the case however, because Pacific Edge has advised they are focusing on the America market.


NEED TO SEE. Centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services sign up to CxBladder.

The Centres for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) granted coverage for the Matritech BladderChek NMP22 in 2002; the test itself was quite cheap ($30-20) and was reimbursed by CMS and other insurers for nearly full cost (then at $24). If CMS accepts CxBladder and we see this release, then that is full corroboration and acceptance of the tests utility and associated cost savings, this would be a major milestone and well worth shouting about.


NEED TO SEE. Veterans Administration Hospitals sign up to CxBladder.

Dr. Giora Katz, was a Staff Urologist at the Department of Surgery-Urology Service, Lake City Veterans Administration Hospital and he ran a clinical trial of BladderChek NMP22 at twenty-three academic, private practice and veterans’ facilities in 10 states prospectively from September 2001 to May 2002. The results were good enough for the test to be slowly adopted by the Veterans Administration Hospitals; so again, if we see this release, that would also be full corroboration and acceptance of the tests utility and associated cost savings. (Woo Hoo).

AND THE REASON: NMP22 is only an adjunct to most tests only.

7172

Im just wondering about a few things in terms of comparing PEBs test with that of NMP22,--The first is that CX is quite alot more expensive than NMP22 and the second is that although it (NMP22)was adopted,it still didnt really make it in the end,at least compared to the goal set by PEB.
I know PEB has a better product,but I cant help wondering how much influence that cheap price for NMP22 had on their decision to adopt it.

I guess it depends a bit on who wins out ,the urologists,or the bean counters. (I suppose one possibility if the latter win is a partial reimbursement,but that could have an effect on the number of tests actually used)

I suppose another scenario is if they were able to reduce the price ,and sell more ,then they would still be on track--provided your scenario played out.

[Snow Leopard]

The current website for NMP22 BladderChek (http://www.alere.com/us/en/product-details/nmp22-bladderchek.html) makes references to this study report (http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=200372) and also this other study report (http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=202214).

Worth reading if you interested.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

:) Quite agree, well worth reading.

Is there nothing a little more recent than 2005 and 2006?

No further clinical studies by them comparing cxbladder to nmp22?

Updates on improvements, if any?

May have missed something due to an aversion to downloads on this tablet.

[NT001]

Both those study reports in the American journal are about a decade old, as Minerbarejet indicates. And almost immediately after publication they were in fact severely questioned by some experts

http://blcwebcafe.org/content/view/97/107/lang,english/

and a more recent book surveying bladder cancer diagnostic methods was in fact not overly impressed with the performance of NMP22, at page 12.

<https://books.google.co.nz/books?isbn=1597454176>

[Dentie]

Im just wondering about a few things in terms of comparing PEBs test with that of NMP22,--The first is that CX is quite alot more expensive than NMP22
I know PEB has a better product,but I cant help wondering how much influence that cheap price for NMP22 had on their decision to adopt it.

I guess it depends a bit on who wins out ,the urologists,or the bean counters.

Hancocks has covered this well (as usual). My thoughts were ...

1. Would I rather have titanium nuts locking the engines in place at 38,000 feet ... or the plastic ones? (Think ticket prices here).
2. How many patients died unnecessarily?
3. How many patients went through cystoscopy unnecessarily?
4. In the end, what was the overall cost to the health system versus how much less it could have been?

We know, you get what you pay for - but the question for the decision makers is...what is it that we really want to achieve? Seems to be a no-brainer.

As Hancocks writes ... accuracy = big cost savings.

[skid]

Hi Skid, accuracy = big cost savings, also ~16,000 Americans will die because of Bladder Cancer this year. More than one million Americans will undergo medical investigation for potential bladder cancer at an estimated cost in excess of US$1 billion. And, Bladder Cancer is one of the most expensive cancers to treat.

The very high recurrence rate of this disease, requiring some patients to receive expensive monitoring for the rest of their lives, causes Bladder Cancer to have the highest total medical costs of any cancer from detection to death. In the US, the total medical cost approaches US$220,000 per patient.

NMP22 - look at the comparison (CxBladder to the highlighted NMP22 BladderChek) - big difference, big money at stake. Bean Counters as you call them, ain't stupid, either are the urologists.

7176

Dont get me wrong--Im not doubting the product and what the benefits are--Its more an issue of what these giant organizations do and if cost cutting becomes an issue(like in our own health system)-(we know in the long run CX saves money,but with 2 options, CX ,or a far cheaper 2nd option-will they do the right thing?)(or possibly offer CX as well,but at a cost to the patient,ie,partial coverage)-I guess there is no real way of knowing this yet(remember this is a tiny facet of the big medical beast) It would be easy to go unnoticed unless the manage to get the news out there.
I know I keep harping on about a reputable Partner to help with distribution and recognician but going it alone does raise the stakes--If you do make it and it goes viral-you get all the spoils(depending on what kind of a deal they strike with Medicaid,etc.-But it is a much tougher road.

[skid]

Hancocks has covered this well (as usual). My thoughts were ...

1. Would I rather have titanium nuts locking the engines in place at 38,000 feet ... or the plastic ones? (Think ticket prices here).
2. How many patients died unnecessarily?
3. How many patients went through cystoscopy unnecessarily?
4. In the end, what was the overall cost to the health system versus how much less it could have been?

We know, you get what you pay for - but the question for the decision makers is...what is it that we really want to achieve? Seems to be a no-brainer.

As Hancocks writes ... accuracy = big cost savings.

You know that..and I know that--but those big insurance cos can be pretty ruthless. There is no shortage of stories about even our ACC,not to mention American institutions.

[MAC]

Both those study reports in the American journal are about a decade old, as Minerbarejet indicates. And almost immediately after publication they were in fact severely questioned by some experts

http://blcwebcafe.org/content/view/97/107/lang,english/

and a more recent book surveying bladder cancer diagnostic methods was in fact not overly impressed with the performance of NMP22, at page 12.

<https://books.google.co.nz/books?isbn=1597454176>

It just seems to me that increasingly that those habitually bearish on Pacific Edge, and that’s liberally giving them the benefit of the doubt as being bears and not just motivated down rampers, really just can’t make a valid case.

Around and around with the same topics over and over again, if they can’t find an issue then they just try to create one, further losing respect each time.

Entertaining perhaps, but at the end of the day, what a waste of one’s life really, gawd, some folk actually have better things to do with their time.

[Tsuba]

It just seems to me that increasingly that those habitually bearish on Pacific Edge, and that’s liberally giving them the benefit of the doubt as being bears and not just motivated down rampers, really just can’t make a valid case.

Around and around with the same topics over and over again, if they can’t find an issue then they just try to create one, further losing respect each time.

Entertaining perhaps, but at the end of the day, what a waste of one’s life really, gawd, some folk actually have better things to do with their time.

I agree MAC. That is why I am pleased with my simple life in the country with my chooks and Guinea Fowl. What a waste of ones life poring so much energy into rubbishing a stock you have no intention of buying.

Must go. The chooks are calling.

[Carpenterjoe]

Read and posted this months ago, I feel it is relevant to your feelings towards institutions. Really outlines the opportunities, possibilities and importance with this Kaiser User programme.

http://kaiserpermanentecarestories.org/at-home-screening-test-allowed-sherry-jansmas-doctors-to-find-colon-cancer-before-it-spread/

[barney]

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kalorama-export-more-ivd-acquisitions-300045762.html

[Whipmoney]

Or a black swan?

Based upon the lack of real progress with the other HUGE national networks PEB signed up in 2013, no point holding one's breath even if CMS signs up that it's going to be a boomer for CxBladder sales.

PEB initiated user programs in 2013 to try and convert urologists and is still doing it today!

It's not a 'black swan' given that you have identified/anticipated the event (or possibly its probability), but cannot determine the effect (on SP etc).



Remember this?

"I’m sorry to have to say that you may well be disappointed in your analysis Whipmoney, PEB told us at the time of the AGM that they could break even this financial year [1]. IMHO it’s more likely to be HY15 (November 2014).

My estimate is that this would require circa 21,000 US tests to cover costs and to turn a profit, but then as we know, PEB have already also told us that they expect to be “processing several tens of thousands of tests” within 2014 [2]."

In all seriousness, this is the danger of taking PEB's executives and Board at their words to get really upbeat and bullish with the stock.

Not so much good luck as good analysis and monitoring of the hype around PEB.


I don't actually know how to go back and find my posts but I gave a fair amount of warning (around the same time as Snapititi) that the price was drastically over-valued relative to the historical market-cap trajectory's of comparable companies. I remember it falling on deaf ears at the time, but I guess the market proved me right.

That said, I still think PEB is a great company with a great product and at it's current price it's a more reasonably priced speculative investment. I also think they have made considerable progress in the last year, in terms of both their IP and marketing efforts, meaning that the stock has slightly de-risked. Be warned though, there is still a very high level of risk with this stock..

[MAC]

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kalorama-export-more-ivd-acquisitions-300045762.html

Yes, the amount of IP is increasing steadily too with a new patent coming every few months, that perpetual access agreement to the University of Otago research has value in itself also, as do the other relationships they have with the likes of the Ludwig foundation.

I don’t know if Pacific Edge are a serious takeover target right now at present, management have certainly suggested that they are, it could happen though in one of two ways, another company may want and desire their biomarker set and general development expertise, or, they could be a takeover target as a going concern, or some combination of both.

Certainly the expanding biomarker set they have across multiple cancer types must be ever increasingly attractive to others, especially the bladder cancer and colorectal biomarkers which have been demonstrated by clinical trials.

It would be satisfying as a shareholder to see the melanoma and gastric products enter into clinical trials within the next 12 months.

That may just double the demonstrated biomarker set, and make them attractive also at that point as prospective diagnostic companion partners.

[skid]

It just seems to me that increasingly that those habitually bearish on Pacific Edge, and that’s liberally giving them the benefit of the doubt as being bears and not just motivated down rampers, really just can’t make a valid case.

Around and around with the same topics over and over again, if they can’t find an issue then they just try to create one, further losing respect each time.

Entertaining perhaps, but at the end of the day, what a waste of one’s life really, gawd, some folk actually have better things to do with their time.

Everyone is knocking around the same topics over again--the mod had to tell you to stop with your ''banner of great things to come'' after the 3rd? time---Its what happens when there is no news---Everyone knows the product is great--everyone knows what the best case scenario would be for PEB..ie-what they want--but whether it works out--whether they deliver--no one knows that---alot of time has passed and there are doubts...no sense getting worked up about it

[Minerbarejet]

Everyone is knocking around the same topics over again--the mod had to tell you to stop with your ''banner of great things to come'' after the 3rd? time---Its what happens when there is no news---Everyone knows the product is great--everyone knows what the best case scenario would be for PEB..ie-what they want--but whether it works out--whether they deliver--no one knows that---alot of time has passed and there are doubts...no sense getting worked up about it
Do not agree with that at all.
MAC made a well constructed list of achievements so far with a clearly defined cut off point between past events and future known goals.
Very useful for a quick rundown of progress so far which could be regularly updated if things happen. Especially helpful for those punters who dont have the time to wade through masses of argument.

It was not, nor was it intended to be, a" banner of great things to come".
Hopefully that was a tongue in cheek comment.


Still reckon that list should be made a sticky at the start of the thread.

[skid]

My point was after the third time I think most got his point --if you need to see it again im sure you can find it

After that amount of time it graduates from being information to promotion--

[Minerbarejet]

My point was after the third time I think most got his point --if you need to see it again im sure you can find it

After that amount of time it graduates from being information to promotion--Should be fairly easy to find - I have a copy printed and sitting on the wall.
There is also a big marker pen alongside for ticking off things as they occur and a smaller one for adding things that come to light as goals.
When the big pen is all used up and the smaller pen has dried out from lack of use, good time to sell.:)

[Exodia]

I think that investors may be slowly just starting to realise how much of an impact this upstart, back water company (PEB) is having in the urological world. Pacific Edge are giving urologists an opportunity to test drive via ‘User Programs’ the CxBladder test. There has been a few tests around previously and there are a few on the horizon. The comparison graphic shows the performance of CxBladder.

CxBladder Clinical Trial Test Result~1.

7178

Very informative Hancocks, can I ask where you acquired this comparison graph from?

[skid]

Should be fairly easy to find - I have a copy printed and sitting on the wall.
There is also a big marker pen alongside for ticking off things as they occur and a smaller one for adding things that come to light as goals.
When the big pen is all used up and the smaller pen has dried out from lack of use, good time to sell.:)

Well then ..your all sorted :)

[skid]

It has been touted on this thread that big pharma has a major influence and corrupt politicians can decide what the medical professionals can do and say; and, who will succeed and who will fail. It’s very hard to keep a secret in this world and whistle blower policies to protect informants are not just available in New Zealand. And, the clinical trial results and urological publications fairly and openly challenge the findings of all published material.....(I think this argument against Pacific Edge by some is nothing short of absolute rubbish).

You shouldn’t be punished for doing the right thing. This is the law in many cases. For a century and half, Congress has offered certain whistleblowers both legal protection and monetary rewards — and lately it has expanded the incentives to report many types of wrongdoing.

HyperLink: American Whistle Blower Protection (http://www.employmentlawgroup.com/what-we-do/whistleblower-protection-rewards/how-our-attorneys-help-whistleblowers/?utm_campaign=Whistleblower%20Law&_SR=Google%20Adwords&_AC=Whistleblower%20Law&_AG=Whistleblower%20Law&_kk=federal%20whistleblower%20laws&_ph=1-888-387-3057&mm_campaign=8f347e770d565c22a9c780b9d17bed34&keyword=federal%20whistleblower%20laws&utm_source=Google&utm_medium=CPC&gclid=Cj0KEQiA4OqnBRDAj9aazvPji9ABEiQANq28oFHXzVOF 9itcar8X0Fhwst8rH-6ryJwUPG67YiePdvIaAk3q8P8HAQ)


It has been touted on this thread that Pacific Edge Limited need to take on a (big pharma) Joint Venture partner to have any chance at all of being successful in America. Well, the big pharma below aren’t having it all their own way either in the urological field, that’s for sure. The marketing program that Pacific Edge has in place was carefully prepared using independent consultants where necessary, and is being carefully implemented.

I think that investors may be slowly just starting to realise how much of an impact this upstart, back water company (PEB) is having in the urological world. Pacific Edge are giving urologists an opportunity to test drive via ‘User Programs’ the CxBladder test. There has been a few tests around previously and there are a few on the horizon. The comparison graphic shows the performance of CxBladder.

CxBladder Clinical Trial Test Result~1.

7178

Urine cytology has been used >60 years for the diagnosis of Urothelial Cancer and now it has the adjuncts of ‘Fluorescent In Situ Hybridization’ (FISH) and ImmunoCyt tests.

Abbott Molecular – UroVysion (FISH) Test.

UroVysion Fluorescence in Situ Hybridisation (FISH) assay. Medical Services Advisory Committee (MASC) - Australian Assessment - 2005

In general, under any plausible variation of evidence of accuracy, costs or rates of recurrence, the use of the UroVysion test remained more costly than current practice given the expected diagnostic pathways.

Recommendation: MSAC recommended that on the strength of evidence pertaining to UroVysion Fluorescence In Situ Hybridisation (FISH) assay public funding should not be supported for this procedure.


Australia & New Zealand Horizon Scanning Network - 2009

2009 HEALTHPACT Action: Tests including BladderChek® and UroVysion FISH assay, designed for the detection of bladder cancer in high risk patients, have poor sensitivity and poor positive predictive values. It is not recommended that these assays be used in asymptomatic patients but they may be useful in the monitoring of patients with transitional cell carcinoma between Cystoscopies. Therefore it is recommended that this technology not be assessed further.


Comparison of ImmunoCyt, UroVysion, & Urine Cytology in Detection of Recurrent Urothelial Carcinoma - 2009

Conclusion: UroVysion has a specificity that is comparable to Cytology in Cystoscopically negative cases. UroVysion may still have value as a confirmatory test for either Cytology or ImmunoCyt.


UroVysion, Urine Cytology, and the College of American Pathologists - 2010

UroVysion (Abbott Molecular) is an FDA approved test for the diagnosis of urothelial carcinoma. Although widely used, there are a variety of different ways to evaluate and interpret the test, and questions remain about the test’s cost effectiveness and reproducibility in actual clinical practice.


Evaluation of UroVysion and Cytology for Bladder Cancer Detection - 2013

Valid results of both UroVysion and Cytology examinations from the same urine sample. UroVysion tests were performed as per the manufacturer’s instructions.

Conclusions: UroVysion was more sensitive than Cytology in detecting UCC, but produced more false positive results. Our data suggest that the use of UroVysion as a reflex test following an ambiguous Cytological diagnosis may play an effective role for UCC detection.


Oh, and by the way, big pharma certainly didn’t manipulate this organisation.

CENTRES for MEDICARE and MEDICAID 2011

Abbott's molecular test, UroVysion, effective January 1, 2011. CMS has announced a separate code which covers that test and moreover appears to be aimed specifically at that test. The financial impact is dramatic, basically resulting in a 50% cut in Medicare reimbursement.


I would suggest that Pacific Edge are not taking it to the big boys at all; but, are just doing their own thing marketing a major shift in Bladder Cancer testing technology. Their professional, fully trained urological Account Executives are working with the clinicians to introduce this into their clinical pathways and this is being done by the 'User Program'. Now, that is called "putting your money where your mouth is"!

We shall see how the commercial roll-out is proceeding when the 2015 results are released. To comment now on the success or failure of the uptake of the CxBladder test would be premature and based on totally unfounded information and thus would be a tad irresponsible.

Fair post..the only thing I would query is the part about whistle blower protection --(but this is most likely more relevant in the political arena.)--(Dont know if you have seen this doco --its ofcourse not directly related--but it is a fair comment on whistle blowers in general)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3hCR_yCvkk

Meanwhile i think some would feel alot more at ease if we started to see at least a few news clips over there bringing all your points to light. Maybe we will in time

[NT001]

Fair post..(but) I think some would feel alot more at ease if we started to see at least a few news clips over there bringing all your points to light. Maybe we will in time

I wouldn't bet on it, Skid. What journalist or news medium in NZ or anywhere else has the resources or motivation to research and publish a comparative evaluation of the various means of diagnosing and monitoring bladder cancer just to put "at ease" a few PEB shareholders who can't DTOR?

Any such evaluation has to be based on the assessments of extremely highly qualified practitioners or scientific or professional organisations, who rarely come out with headline-grabbing declarations that one method is clearly better than its competitors. For starters there are professional, legal and commercial restrictions on this. Even the Bladder Cancer WebCafe site which appears to be well informed and responsibly run carries a protective disclaimer saying:

The information contained in these pages is not meant to be taken as an endorsement of any medical approach, procedure, or treatment of any kind.

There are occasional articles on the topic in peer-reviewed medical publications (although not many) that are open to public scrutiny, and which people like Hancocks watch out for and are kind enough to bring to our attention. And of course Pacific Edge - the company that some of us continually attack for not giving us any hard information - publishes material on its website that we either don't read or we choose to disbelieve on the grounds that it's designed only to serve the interests of the company's untrustworthy leadership.

But PEB itself needs to be a bit careful not to antagonise the entire US urological sector and medical establishment by pumping out claims that may be considered contentious, at least by its competitors. So it's really up to us to make best use of what info is available from limited sources.

[skid]

I wouldn't bet on it, Skid. What journalist or news medium in NZ or anywhere else has the resources or motivation to research and publish a comparative evaluation of the various means of diagnosing and monitoring bladder cancer just to put "at ease" a few PEB shareholders who can't DTOR?

Any such evaluation has to be based on the assessments of extremely highly qualified practitioners or scientific or professional organisations, who rarely come out with headline-grabbing declarations that one method is clearly better than its competitors. For starters there are professional, legal and commercial restrictions on this. Even the Bladder Cancer WebCafe site which appears to be well informed and responsibly run carries a protective disclaimer saying:

The information contained in these pages is not meant to be taken as an endorsement of any medical approach, procedure, or treatment of any kind.

There are occasional articles on the topic in peer-reviewed medical publications (although not many) that are open to public scrutiny, and which people like Hancocks watch out for and are kind enough to bring to our attention. And of course Pacific Edge - the company that some of us continually attack for not giving us any hard information - publishes material on its website that we either don't read or we choose to disbelieve on the grounds that it's designed only to serve the interests of the company's untrustworthy leadership.

But PEB itself needs to be a bit careful not to antagonise the entire US urological sector and medical establishment by pumping out claims that may be considered contentious, at least by its competitors. So it's really up to us to make best use of what info is available from limited sources.

Did you see carpenter joes post and link?--that sort of thing---or perhaps a mention in the American cancer ass web site-(is that to much to ask?)--PEB is lost in the jungle in terms of recognition atm

The point of this is not to put PEB posters at ease--Its to bring the company recognition and help it move forward-(and make some money)-that,would put posters at ease (they probably wouldnt mind to much if the SP rose out of the low 70s either)--Its when others talk about PEB,that the rubber meets the road.IMO

[Carpenterjoe]

Found this company/website interesting

http://mdxhealth.com/

I believe

They have similar products/pipeline

Illustrates/confirms the market possibilities/Demand

Assists in valuing PEB

Good one to keep an eye on.

Reassures me that FDA approval is not required to achieve market penetration.

[NT001]

Did you see carpenter joes post and link?..PEB is lost in the jungle in terms of recognition atm

Had a quick look at the link and couldn't actually locate what article you were looking at. But that's the nature of the beast. If you were a shareholder in one of CxBladder's competitors, you'd probably have the same complaint. You want instant daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly half-yearly and annual detailed updates. As a longterm PEB shareholder I'm content to await the outcome of the contest. Don't care what the SP is tomorrow. Or on Tuesday. Or on Wednesday. But then, in my younger days I was a middle distance runner. It taught me a lot that proved invaluable in later life.

[skid]

Had a quick look at the link and couldn't actually locate what article you were looking at. But that's the nature of the beast. If you were a shareholder in one of CxBladder's competitors, you'd probably have the same complaint. You want instant daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly half-yearly and annual detailed updates. As a longterm PEB shareholder I'm content to await the outcome of the contest. Don't care what the SP is tomorrow. Or on Tuesday. Or on Wednesday. But then, in my younger days I was a middle distance runner. It taught me a lot that proved invaluable in later life.

Its the Kaiser link (its still there)--talks about the benefits of early detection with the test--guess the point is -its coming from somewhere other than the company itself.(that makes the test)

The SP example is just an indication that no one really knows if goals are being achieved at this point in time,so its indicative (to an extent)of just how the company is going(which I assume you do have an interest in)

suppose I should clarify SP is indicative of how investors ,including institutions perceive the company is doing(mr market)

[Minerbarejet]

Investors, institutions, and every Tom, Dick and Harry can have all the perceptions they like about where the company is going,
it is of little consequence. The only ones that know how the company is going are the company accountants and management.
In a leakfree and tightly run company this will be revealed every six months. Any other announcements that may be considered price sensitive i.e. patents, deals signed, will be released as soon as possible after the fact.
That is why there was some surprise expressed by DD when Tom Dick and Harry, investors and institutions drove the price up to 1.70 odd.
False perception by the punters not PEB.
Dont expect more than the above apart from some analysts giving their views every now and then.
As I have said before, boil the jug, make a cup of something, sit back and relax. Or alternatively pour 5 fingers of whiskey and pass out.

[Tsuba]

I think the 5 fingers of whiskey maybe contributing to some of the emotions here. Not good for ones BALANCE. ;)

[skid]

Investors, institutions, and every Tom, Dick and Harry can have all the perceptions they like about where the company is going,
it is of little consequence. The only ones that know how the company is going are the company accountants and management.
In a leakfree and tightly run company this will be revealed every six months. Any other announcements that may be considered price sensitive i.e. patents, deals signed, will be released as soon as possible after the fact.
That is why there was some surprise expressed by DD when Tom Dick and Harry, investors and institutions drove the price up to 1.70 odd.
False perception by the punters not PEB.
Dont expect more than the above apart from some analysts giving their views every now and then.
As I have said before, boil the jug, make a cup of something, sit back and relax. Or alternatively pour 5 fingers of whiskey and pass out.

I wonder if DD was surprised at the Tom,Dick and Harry posters who were talking the company up when it was at its highs :)

[Minerbarejet]

I wonder if DD was surprised at the Tom,Dick and Harry posters who were talking the company up when it was at its highs :)Probably just as surprised at the Tom, Dick and Harry posters who are talking the company down when it is at its lows.:)

[skid]

Lets hope so, although there is Still 6-7c to go before a new low is reached--dont see that happening, but we wont know till we look back in hindsight.
Interesting thing is, those talking up have the dubious distinction of doing so in both the highs and lows.

Disc-On board at the last low--not talking it up,but hoping for the best and giving them the benefit of the doubt at that point.

ok enough of that...

[MAC]

The FY15 period comes to a close in just a couple of weeks, and Pacific Edge management must have a fair understanding now of the outcome of having their newly hired salesforce on the ground.

It’s probably no coincidence either that Edison now have this to say on their website, probably no coincidence either that the term ‘meaningful’ is a common David Darling synonym for having achieved traction.

“We expect meaningful sales from the Cxbladder franchise in CY15 and positive cash flow for the company in CY16”

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/pacific-edge

[Snow Leopard]

The FY15 period comes to a close in just a couple of weeks, and Pacific Edge management must have a fair understanding now of the outcome of having their newly hired salesforce on the ground.

It’s probably no coincidence either that Edison now have this to say on their website, probably no coincidence either that the term ‘meaningful’ is a common David Darling synonym for having achieved traction.

“We expect meaningful sales from the Cxbladder franchise in CY15 and positive cash flow for the company in CY16”

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/pacific-edge

Edison used these words when they started covering PEB in Sept 2014:

We expect meaningful sales from Cxbladder(detect) in calendar 2015 and positive cash flow for the company in calendar 2016

Nothing now about it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

On track is the message, contrary to many with area 51 post codes that frequent this forum.

[Snow Leopard]

:) Quite agree, well worth reading.

Is there nothing a little more recent than 2005 and 2006?

No further clinical studies by them comparing cxbladder to nmp22?

Updates on improvements, if any?

May have missed something due to an aversion to downloads on this tablet.

How many companies do you know that put up poor information about their product?

"Wonderspread - it tastes sort of OK and is not very bad for your health."

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

How many companies do you know that put up poor information about their product?

"Wonderspread - it tastes sort of OK and is not very bad for your health."

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Dont tell Moosie, ----its got maple syrup in it. :)


And chickpeas, cashews, yeast, lemon juice, water

[couta1]

Peb had just slipped off page one for the first time in a long while meanwhile it goes sub 70c for a 26wk low and buyers looking thin-Lol

[Minerbarejet]

Peb had just slipped off page one for the first time in a long while meanwhile it goes sub 70c for a 26wk low and buyers looking thin-LolExciting isnt it.
Isn't that what's known as a "skinny dip"?:)

[skid]

Its to be expected -everyones dropping a bit

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-drop-as-dollar-surges-apple-in-focus-2015-03-10

[Dentie]

Its to be expected -everyones dropping a bit

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-drop-as-dollar-surges-apple-in-focus-2015-03-10

Of course ... if the yanks are dropping so should the rest of us ..... I would hate for us to be treated on our own merits.... what was that about the bigger fool theory?

[skid]

Unfortunately the Share market is an emotional game--Whats really crazy is that it is all because the US had really good unemployment figures that showed that their economy may be improving--good news?..well ,because of that good news everyone has freaked out that they will finally raise interest rates as a result--America is where you want to play ball is'nt it?(with PEB)--Think of the buying opportunity you may get if it continues:)

crazy as it seems,when they have days like that-its good to keep an eye on things till the dust settles(hopefully tomorrow)

[Snow Leopard]

Peb had just slipped off page one for the first time in a long while meanwhile it goes sub 70c for a 26wk low and buyers looking thin-Lol

and you could have let it be.

By the way my broker says that PEB buyers have a normal distribution of body shapes and are in no way nutritionally challenged - but what would he know?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Antipodean]

Not one of the "critical" announcements mentioned earlier but still positive to hear from the company:

https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/262004
https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/261998

[Tsuba]

David Darling says: “While it is important for the Company to seek patent protection in key jurisdictions, our main focus continues to be building sales momentum in the US, the world’s largest healthcare market, where we have just now started into our second year of commercial operations. Laboratory through-put is tracking to the company’s expectations following an active direct sales and marketing program to clinicians and healthcare organisations. Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA has twelve dedicated sales executives operating in key geographic regions.”

[MAC]

It is a good thing to be published and especially show cased like that.

Publications and papers like these are an essential tool used by biotech companies to fill any gaps in understanding for payers (insurers) whilst they are demonstrating the clinical utility of their products, they all go into the payer dossier’s of clinical utility evidence.

It would be satisfying to see multiple papers published each year going forward now.

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/209898.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Not one of the "critical" announcements mentioned earlier but still positive to hear from the company:

https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/262004
https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/261998

Agreed, the Japanese patent is more like "business as usual" - just another patent (though still encouraging). The other announcement however (publication in BioMed Central) is really good news. I expect that this will make the work of their sales reps much easier (though I note that they picked a European journal ...)

[Xerof]

A third Ann just out. Presentation to Australian Institutions.

So, I will Cx-predict, a dual listing coming up, with a CR on ASX.

[MAC]

A must read presentation for all;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

Good work Pacific Edge, thanks for the update and progress report.

Do note the doubling of lab throughput for the final quarter of FY15, which should put Pacific Edge firmly on track to achieve analyst consensus revenue targets of $3.2M.

This pending paper will be worth gold, nay platinum, too in demonstrating the product as ‘best in breed’, to payers (insurers) and add to their accumulating clinical utility dossiers.

“Breen et al (2015) A holistic comparative analysis of diagnostic tests for urothelial carcinoma: A study ofCxbladder Detect, Urovysion® FISH, NMP22® and cytology based on imputation of multiple datasets”

[MAC]

Actually, running the numbers on those results;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

If 5.7 lots of tests were performed within HY15, and 14.8 lots of tests were performed within the second half, then that’s a total for the FY15 financial year to 31 March, of 20.5 lots of tests.

Roughly then, and coarsely assuming similar historical ratios to test to sales;

We may thus anticipate FY15 revenues of ;

[ HY15 revenues $1.6 x (21.2 / 5.5) ] = $5.7M revenues at FY15 !

Analyst consensus is only $3.2M, we may thus very well see a substantial outperform here.

[Snow Leopard]

Actually, running the numbers on those results;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

If 5.7 lots of tests were performed within HY15, and 14.8 lots of tests were performed within the second half, then that’s a total for the FY15 financial year to 31 March, of 20.5 lots of tests.

Roughly then, and coarsely assuming similar historical ratios to test to sales;

We may thus anticipate FY15 revenues of ;

[ HY15 revenues $1.6 x (21.2 / 5.5) ] = $5.7M revenues at FY15 !

Analyst consensus is only $3.2M, we may thus very well see a substantial outperform here.

Lab sales (trading revenue) for the first half were:
NZ $71K;
USA $460K

It is these numbers which you can multiply up for full year to:
NZ $255K
USA $1654K
Total $1910K

I am assuming some assumptions here and hope that:
"Q4 FY15 has also been subject to lower results due to the introduction of the Affordable Care Act in January 2015" is a transitory effect and not a new normal.

Then add on the other stuff to the income for your FY guess.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Mista_Trix]

I like the way you two balance each other out.

MAC you're VERY optimistic, and I like that - its hard work sometimes but its great!!
PT - The voice of reason.

Keep on truckin' you two :)

[skid]

The market does not look convinced--I think not much traction will happen until you see an announcement that starts with ''PEB signs''

PS-that post drought must have been a record!

[klid]

I'm still waiting for news on CMS. I didn't miss anything yet right? Time for an update.

[couta1]

The market does not look convinced--I think not much traction will happen until you see an announcement that starts with ''PEB signs''

PS-that post drought must have been a record!
Actually skid Peb held up very well today so I dont think you can say the market doesnt look convinced, have a look at the train wreck most of the NZX was today so any stock that held its ground or ended up did very well IMO.

[Snow Leopard]

7208

Sorry to bring this up but...

your figures in red are segmented trading revenue (including intercompany activity) for the two quarters of:
the $2,000 is for Q1 & Q2 FY14 - (1st Half Year)
the $95,000 is for Q3 & Q4 of FY14 - (2nd Half Year)
the $474,000 is for Q1 & Q2 of FY15 - (1st Half Year)

and not as you have indicated them.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

Actually skid Peb held up very well today so I dont think you can say the market doesnt look convinced, have a look at the train wreck most of the NZX was today so any stock that held its ground or ended up did very well IMO.

yes it held up--gained a cent but pretty thin on the buy side--not what I would call traction from the news.--lets face it investors need something they can get their teeth into in terms of announcements.
If they put some really good sales results on the board or a big deal with someone -then announcements like these would mean more.

[Minerbarejet]

And congratulations to PT for making the 13000th post. This will no doubt change through deletion.:eek2:

[Snow Leopard]

And congratulations to PT for making the 13000th post. This will no doubt change through deletion.:eek2:

Do I get my name engraved on a sample jar as a prize?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[barney]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/336633/pacific-edge-focus-now-result

[Dentie]

Well, well, well... a bit more of a solid shake out late in the day. Given what's in our midst...either we have some holders who really don't know what is happening or, probably the more likely scenario that tax time is approaching. It'll be time to get the vacuum cleaner out shortly ....

[Minerbarejet]

Well, well, well... a bit more of a solid shake out late in the day. Given what's in our midst...either we have some holders who really don't know what is happening or, probably the more likely scenario that tax time is approaching. It'll be time to get the vacuum cleaner out shortly ....Make sure you empty the bag first. Any more great announcements and it should be at 60 cents the way things are going TIC:)
Mad March Market

[Crystal Ball]

Actually skid Peb held up very well today so I dont think you can say the market doesnt look convinced, have a look at the train wreck most of the NZX was today so any stock that held its ground or ended up did very well IMO.
Yes, some bad slides but -Dil ended up 10 cents from yesterday so finished with a flourish....happy with that one...

[Dentie]

Make sure you empty the bag first. Any more great announcements and it should be at 60 cents the way things are going TIC:)
Mad March Market

...as one continues to dawdle with both hands raised skywards, head shaking laterally with a look of bewilderment...:confused:

[Minerbarejet]

...as one continues to dawdle with both hands raised skywards, head shaking laterally with a look of bewilderment...:confused:
Vertically with a look of happiness would be better, Dentie, but I think the market would like; to be able to read the article to be published, a proper analysis of the SE Asia rollout, the end of the FY and a hefty increase in sales, the launch of triage in June in the States, and confirmation of success with Kaiser Permanente.
We await what Forbarr, Edison, might think of all that when it all happens? 67 cents may seem a tad cheap.
An interesting few months ahead.:)

[BlackPeter]

Well, well, well... a bit more of a solid shake out late in the day. Given what's in our midst...either we have some holders who really don't know what is happening or, probably the more likely scenario that tax time is approaching. It'll be time to get the vacuum cleaner out shortly ....

I hear what you are saying ... however - this share is now for a long time in a clear cut down trend. It might need more than just a handful of positive announcements (still only words) to change the trend. I guess the sales figures end of May might do the trick, if they satisfy at least the analysts expectations. If however they don't, than it might be a good time to start running to reach the hills before the sales tsunami comes in ...

Discl: Holding (some - in high risk portfolio) and wondering why I went in that early ...

[okane]

Plenty of doom & gloom on this thread but myself I'm very happy with the announcements made this week. Nice to see a little bounce back today as well.

[barney]

He's a very clever man that Parry.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/67457475/otago-researchers-identify-drugs-to-beat-hereditary-cancers

[Leftfield]

He's a very clever man that Parry.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/67457475/otago-researchers-identify-drugs-to-beat-hereditary-cancers

All good stuff no doubt.....But what has this got to do with PEB?

[twotic]

All good stuff no doubt.....But what has this got to do with PEB?

Perhaps this will answer your question (http://biochem.otago.ac.nz/our-people/research-only-staff/parry-guilford/)

[MAC]

Perhaps this will answer your question (http://biochem.otago.ac.nz/our-people/research-only-staff/parry-guilford/)

CSO of Pacific Edge;

Page 12, of this week’s presentation for the team;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

[Minerbarejet]

All good stuff no doubt.....But what has this got to do with PEB?
Its possible it may have something to do with the fact that Parry Guilford is Chief Scientific Officer for PEB.
It also may have something to do with PEB having first dibs on anything developed in the Cancer Genetics Laboratory.
Drawing a long bow but if PEB can find it AND fix it - draw your own conclusions.


Sorry , others posted while under construction.

[skid]

Looks like someone used that flurry to dump a parcel right at the end--guess thats one of the dangers of the down trend referred to earlier.(not easy to reverse the momentum)

Still that flash presentation managed to add 3c to the SP for the day

[Dentie]

Looks like someone used that flurry to dump a parcel right at the end--guess thats one of the dangers of the down trend referred to earlier.(not easy to reverse the momentum)

Still that flash presentation managed to add 3c to the SP for the day

Unfortunately, this stock has had to put up with the occasional holder getting themselves all wet and dumping each 2 to 3c of upwards movement. Too much excitement for them I guess....

[skid]

Its the basic atmosphere atm --Those wanting to exit because they have doubts take advantage of a rise to sell--the opposite of course would be for those wanting in,or to increase their holding,to wait for a drop to buy(how many of you guys have done that?)
A 6c gain would have been great,but a 3c gain is still pretty good considering how things have been going of late with the SP.
Next week should give a clearer idea--If it holds or gains its a good sign. If it drifts back in the 60s ,then its just more of the same--which means investors want a clear sign that this puppy is going to make the numbers.

Its a pretty slick web article and they have ''upped the antie'' a bit on their claims.
Guess the real question is what does ''on track'' mean and will the numbers back up what they are saying.(I suppose that last paragraph disclaimer is a get out of jail free card if they dont)

in reference to your comment--some stocks have to put up with that--and some dont--depending on alot of factors

[Dentie]

Its possible it may have something to do with the fact that Parry Guilford is Chief Scientific Officer for PEB.
It also may have something to do with PEB having first dibs on anything developed in the Cancer Genetics Laboratory.
Drawing a long bow but if PEB can find it AND fix it - draw your own conclusions.


Sorry , others posted while under construction.

I totally agree...(snort! snort!). It is not always just about the numbers...PEB have more to its bow than just Cx Bladder sales.

[Dentie]

Sorry if this has already been covered (I don't read this site much anymore) but has anybody actually analysed the lab throughput figures they shared. To me, that is the most useful information PEB has ever published about CX Bladder uptake outside FY and HY reporting.

Welcome back then NG...nice to see you are still keeping tabs just the same....just in case eh?

[twotic]

Sorry if this has already been covered (I don't read this site much anymore) but has anybody actually analysed the lab throughput figures they shared. To me, that is the most useful information PEB has ever published about CX Bladder uptake outside FY and HY reporting.

Unless I'm missing something, that "data" is completely useless isn't it? There are no numbers. How are you going to analyse the data without any numbers? or is there something out there which is actually useful that I haven't seen?

[MAC]

Hi Twotic and NewGuy,

There is no scale and we also don’t know the ratio of sales tests to user programme tests, but one can get a reasonable feel for the likely FY15 revenue results.

This is where I’ve got to;

There are arguments for there being a higher ratio of sales to user tests at FY15 than at HY15, and there are also arguments for there being a lower ratio of sales to user tests at FY15. Those influences will probably pretty much, more or less, cancel out I believe.

I’m quite comfortable with a base case estimate of $3.86M, but would like to be pleasantly surprised.

Edison’s estimate is $3.19M, so we may very well see an outperform on the day, all on track or better.

http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBFY15S_zpstntlsds2.jpg.html?sort=3&o=0

7216

[Minerbarejet]

Great analysis, Mac. Dont know if you have accounted for some Triage in NZ - its been out for three months and could boost that nz figure a bit.

Anyone got a handle on how Affordable Care has affected the last quarter as stated, and why?

Welcome back NewGuy:)

[twotic]

There should be enough information there to at least estimate the throughput relative to past periods. For example, we can directly estimate how throughput over the last two quarters compares to the previous few periods. Then, we just need to make an assumption about the proportion of tests that are paid vs free. If we assume, at least initially, that this remains constant, then the growth in throughput provides a good proxy for growth in revenue. Then, we can try playing around with the paid/unpaid ratio to see what other outcomes are plausible. Either way, this information provides a very useful guide IMHO.

p.s. Hey Dentie! :)

Agreed, but you have to make the assumption that the scale (on the y axis) is linear though. How comfortable are you doing that? Personally I find it very odd that they have chosen to present this throughput "information" this way and as a result Im not comfortable drawing any inference from it at all.

[twotic]

Hi Twotic and NewGuy,

There is no scale and we also don’t know the ratio of sales tests to user programme tests, but one can get a reasonable feel for the likely FY15 revenue results.

This is where I’ve got to;

There are arguments for there being a higher ratio of sales to user tests at FY15 than at HY15, and there are also arguments for there being a lower ratio of sales to user tests at FY15. Those influences will probably pretty much, more or less, cancel out I believe.

I’m quite comfortable with a base case estimate of $3.86M, but would like to be pleasantly surprised.

Edison’s estimate is $3.19M, so we may very well see an outperform on the day, all on track or better.

http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBFY15S_zpstntlsds2.jpg.html?sort=3&o=0

7216

Cheers Mac - good post!

[twotic]

Disagree. The last time they showed this info they also overlaid the corresponding growth rates, from which the axis scale can be easily determined.

At the end of the day you still need to make assumptions to use the information contained in the graph in any meaningful way and it is completely unnecessary - that is all I am saying. On top of that it concerns me that PEB are presenting information in this way - it strikes me as extremely unprofessional.

You have an analytical background - would you ever put your name to a report with a figure as flawed as that one?

[skid]

Its possible it may have something to do with the fact that Parry Guilford is Chief Scientific Officer for PEB.
It also may have something to do with PEB having first dibs on anything developed in the Cancer Genetics Laboratory.
Drawing a long bow but if PEB can find it AND fix it - draw your own conclusions.


Sorry , others posted while under construction.

Do you have information to show that they have first dibs on anything developed in the cancer Genetics lab--Otago university has a number of business partners.

[MAC]

From the Prospectus.

Pacific Edge Biotechnology commenced trading in August 2001 and is based in large part on intellectual property acquired from the University of Otago pursuant to an Acquisition Agreement which is described below and in section 17 on page 49 of this Offer Document.

Pacific Edge Biotechnology has acquired rights in the following from the University of Otago pursuant to the Acquisition Agreement:



Two patent applications relating to multivariate data analysis and bio-informatics; an
All intellectual property related directly or indirectly to the knowledge of cancer, cancer biology, cancer genetics, genetic technology, bioinformatics and microarrays developed by the Cancer Genetics Laboratory and their collaborators or the Knowledge Engineering Laboratory and their collaborators.



I'm not sure which is more astonishing really, the comprehensiveness of all your good research and contributions after 10 years Hancocks, or the comprehensiveness of that agreement !

[hilskin]

http://www.otago.ac.nz/otagomagazine/issue39/features/otago080116.html

The company also benefits from a legacy agreement between the University of Otago and Pacific Edge. As part of the agreement at the inception of the company, the University received a 25 per cent share and committed to contribute future ongoing pieces of intellectual property for Pacific Edge to commercialise as a “pathway to market” company.

“Backing a new ‘start-up’ was a big commitment and, because of the agreement, we have maintained a very close relationship with the University. It’s a good example of how you can couple academic capability and resources from the University with a commercial enterprise and make a lasting legacy-type arrangement that benefits both parties,” Darling says.

[Leftfield]

Perhaps this will answer your question (http://biochem.otago.ac.nz/our-people/research-only-staff/parry-guilford/)

Thanks to Twotic, Mac and Minerbarejet. Your info and help appreciated. Interesting times!! :)

[skid]

Thanks guys--I didnt know specifically how that works.
In the report they mentioned that PEB had put considerable money into the initial research for CX etc I assume so its easy to understand how they had exclusive rights to that material and intellectual property(at a price i assume)
But it was not clear about any of the new developments--Who funds them?
I also noticed there is an agricultural business involved.(not sure where they stand in the pecking order)

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks guys--I didnt know specifically how that works.
In the report they mentioned that PEB had put considerable money into the initial research for CX etc I assume so its easy to understand how they had exclusive rights to that material and intellectual property(at a price i assume)
But it was not clear about any of the new developments--Who funds them?
I also noticed there is an agricultural business involved.(not sure where they stand in the pecking order)
I think this is where it all ties in with the R &D grants and funding from Callaghan Institute at roughly 1.5 mil per annum for the next three years, Skid. Plus whatever else gets chucked at it. I guess in a roundabout way PEB could be considered Otago University's Commercial Arm for getting the results of their research into the public arena. Payback will be in the form of dividends eventually I suppose which will then get put back into the pot as well.
In addition I dont think Otago University would be terribly chuffed about PEB being taken over either if it comes to that. I suppose the cxbladder developments could be sold on their own but they would still be in the market with colorectal, melanoma, gastric, all of which seem to be coming over the development horizon and into a medical centre near you.
Plus anything else they develop in the meantime in other cancer related fields and in that laboratory.
Another thing is that every time they do a test anywhere it is added to the databank of knowledge gained which in turn further validates the science.:)

[skid]

http://www.otago.ac.nz/otagomagazine/issue39/features/otago080116.html

The company also benefits from a legacy agreement between the University of Otago and Pacific Edge. As part of the agreement at the inception of the company, the University received a 25 per cent share and committed to contribute future ongoing pieces of intellectual property for Pacific Edge to commercialise as a “pathway to market” company.

“Backing a new ‘start-up’ was a big commitment and, because of the agreement, we have maintained a very close relationship with the University. It’s a good example of how you can couple academic capability and resources from the University with a commercial enterprise and make a lasting legacy-type arrangement that benefits both parties,” Darling says.

So if Im getting this right Otago uni owns 25% of PEB-right?

[Xerof]

So if Im getting this right Otago uni owns 25% of PEB-right?They currently hold 0.86%. Dilution, or sell-down in the very early years, I do not know. They held 5.8m shares in 2010, now they hold 2.648m. Look up the old A/R's if you want this information

[skid]

I think this is where it all ties in with the R &D grants and funding from Callaghan Institute at roughly 1.5 mil per annum for the next three years, Skid. Plus whatever else gets chucked at it. I guess in a roundabout way PEB could be considered Otago University's Commercial Arm for getting the results of their research into the public arena. Payback will be in the form of dividends eventually I suppose which will then get put back into the pot as well.
In addition I dont think Otago University would be terribly chuffed about PEB being taken over either if it comes to that. I suppose the cxbladder developments could be sold on their own but they would still be in the market with colorectal, melanoma, gastric, all of which seem to be coming over the development horizon and into a medical centre near you.
Plus anything else they develop in the meantime in other cancer related fields and in that laboratory.
Another thing is that every time they do a test anywhere it is added to the databank of knowledge gained which in turn further validates the science.:)

That issue of PEB being taken over is an interesting one--Ive often wondered how some of the most loyal followers of this co. would feel about that-of PEB being gobled up by a large multinational co (which would then own the rights to all the research from Otago university)--that may or may not satisfy the $$ side of things,but would it satisfy those who are on board for alot of the moral issues brought up here---Im curious how many would actually be in favor of that--especially those staunch defenders of the ''going alone''strategy--(thats why I was a little surprised when the issue came up in the literature)They have more or less hinted they would be on board,and if thats the case is it ok for any one to criticize those who are in it for a buck?

I suppose until real news comes along we can dabble in these more out of the way thoughts.

[skid]

They currently hold 0.86%. Dilution, or sell-down in the very early years, I do not know. They held 5.8m shares in 2010, now they hold 2.648m. Look up the old A/R's if you want this information


The company also benefits from a legacy agreement between the University of Otago and Pacific Edge. As part of the agreement at the inception of the company, the University received a 25 per cent share and committed to contribute future ongoing pieces of intellectual property for Pacific Edge to commercialise as a “pathway to market” company.

So then what is the 25% share mean--Am I missing something
---sorry missed your sell down or dilution statement--but it must of been alot of one or the other as they now own only half

lets hope if it was a sell down ,it was at $1.70

[Minerbarejet]

They may only own half as many but they are currently worth 3.5 times more than 2010 so you could say they are ahead.
Several capital raisings since 2001 would dilute a fair bit off your 25% if you did not participate.
If I recall the last one in 2013 diluted about 13 % (@ 2 for 15 @ .55c) if non participating.

[Minerbarejet]

To put a more scientific leaning on things Pacific Edge take a look at this patent that was granted in the USA for melanoma. The sheer magnitude of the brains involved is overwhelming.
If you have a spare couple of weeks I suppose a layman could make something of it. This is just one of several patents granted and presumably a similar amount of work goes into each one for each jurisdiction.
Dont think there could be any suggestion that Pacific Edge and Otago University are sitting around playing tiddly winks.
It appears to have been initiated some years ago as well which gives some idea of the time involved in getting approvals, patents granted, products developed.
Farseeing? Yes I would think so.

http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=8822149.PN.&OS=PN/8822149&RS=PN/8822149

[skid]

Nope --I dont think the scientists have been sitting around playing tidily winks--They obviously know their stuff--but right now what is actually more important is whether the sales team have the goods--Lets see if they can bridge that gulf between science and the market place.

Meanwhile ..would you prefer that all that research stays under the banner of PEB or a tiny part of a major corp. as a buyout.(which might mean a bit more $$)---No one has really given their opinion on that

[Minerbarejet]

Nope --I dont think the scientists have been sitting around playing tidily winks--They obviously know their stuff--but right now what is actually more important is whether the sales team have the goods--Lets see if they can bridge that gulf between science and the market place.

Meanwhile ..would you prefer that all that research stays under the banner of PEB or a tiny part of a major corp. as a buyout.(which might mean a bit more $$)---No one has really given their opinion on thatCould be wrong of course but I think all the shareholders including PEB management and Otago university may have some say in whether anything gets bought out by any major corp. Its not automatic as far as I know. Wouldnt they be acquiring a stake first, which we would know about through SST disclosures?
It would depend on what the general consensus is and the level of compensation. Each of us have different levels as exemplified by concerns of 3 cent rises and falls and analysts estimates of 1.20, plus its already been to 1.70 with a bunch of buyers from then probably eager to see that bettered in due course.

This has been discussed before anyway on a couple of occasions and as somebody so succinctly put it," the panties would probably drop to the floor at about 5.00".
But, that was then and a lot has changed since.:)

[skid]

Could be wrong of course but I think all the shareholders including PEB management and Otago university may have some say in whether anything gets bought out by any major corp. Its not automatic as far as I know. Wouldnt they be acquiring a stake first, which we would know about through SST disclosures?
It would depend on what the general consensus is and the level of compensation. Each of us have different levels as exemplified by concerns of 3 cent rises and falls and analysts estimates of 1.20, plus its already been to 1.70 with a bunch of buyers from then probably eager to see that bettered in due course.

This has been discussed before anyway on a couple of occasions and as somebody so succinctly put it," the panties would probably drop to the floor at about 5.00".
But, that was then and a lot has changed since.:)

The price of a buyout would be determined by performance--It could be a case of a large company being better able to distribute and promote if that part of the plan didnt happen to eventuate.--But thats all conjecture.
I only brought it up because there are many who seem to have skin in the game far beyond dollars and cents(and have sometimes criticized others who think in those terms.)---but management seems far more open to the fact if it eventuated. It could be anything from a fire sale to a fair price(I think that someone who so succulently put forth $5 would well and truly find that those panties would be tied on a knot if they were expecting that price):ohmy:

Im sure that PEB management and to a much less extent Otago uni(now that they own 12%(?) would certainly have a say---i just thought the fact they mentioned it might have gotten on the wrong side of some(unless they have double standards)------There is nothing indicating that that is a possibility at this stage of the game anyway.

If the numbers come through ,the growth story can continue,but if for some reason this one disappoints,you can fill in the dots,considering where the SP is now.---Its a long way to 100mil. Shouldn't be to long now to find out.

PS. Anyone have any thoughts on what the motivation was for the web update(which didnt really contain any new info)

[Whipmoney]

The price of a buyout would be determined by performance--It could be a case of a large company being better able to distribute and promote if that part of the plan didnt happen to eventuate.--But thats all conjecture.
I only brought it up because there are many who seem to have skin in the game far beyond dollars and cents(and have sometimes criticized others who think in those terms.)---but management seems far more open to the fact if it eventuated. It could be anything from a fire sale to a fair price(I think that someone who so succulently put forth $5 would well and truly find that those panties would be tied on a knot if they were expecting that price):ohmy:

Im sure that PEB management and to a much less extent(now that they own 12%(?) would certainly have a say---i just thought the fact they mentioned it might have gotten on the wrong side of some(unless they have double standards)------There is nothing indicating that that is a possibility at this stage of the game anyway.

If the numbers come through ,the growth story can continue,but if for some reason this one disappoints,you can fill in the dots,considering where the SP is now.---Its a long way to 100mil. Shouldn't be to long now to find out.

PS. Anyone have any thoughts on what the motivation was for the web update(which didnt really contain any new info)

I highly doubt that a buy-out will occur and if it did (anytime soon) it would have to be at a price well below the current share price.

[Minerbarejet]

The price of a buyout would be determined by performance--It could be a case of a large company being better able to distribute and promote if that part of the plan didnt happen to eventuate.--But thats all conjecture.
I only brought it up because there are many who seem to have skin in the game far beyond dollars and cents(and have sometimes criticized others who think in those terms.)---but management seems far more open to the fact if it eventuated. It could be anything from a fire sale to a fair price(I think that someone who so succulently put forth $5 would well and truly find that those panties would be tied on a knot if they were expecting that price):ohmy:

Im sure that PEB management and to a much less extent(now that they own 12%(?) would certainly have a say---i just thought the fact they mentioned it might have gotten on the wrong side of some(unless they have double standards)------There is nothing indicating that that is a possibility at this stage of the game anyway.

If the numbers come through ,the growth story can continue,but if for some reason this one disappoints,you can fill in the dots,considering where the SP is now.---Its a long way to 100mil. Shouldn't be to long now to find out.

PS. Anyone have any thoughts on what the motivation was for the web update(which didnt really contain any new info)Are we talking about the Presentation to Australian Institutions?

[skid]

The business overview march 2015

[Minerbarejet]

The business overview march 2015p3 Very bottom re triage launch in US. New info
P6 TA from 68 to 77. Added NPV. New info
P8 Q3 = Q1 + Q2
Q4 = Q3 + Q1 new info
Affordable Care Act Effects. New info
P10 middle - 2 new clinical tests ready for publication - one for detect, one for triage. New info
P11 into SE Asia by april 2015. New info

[NT001]

...anyone have any thoughts on what the motivation was for the web update(which didnt really contain any new info)

It was actually a presentation directed to Australian institutions, possibly to attract more interest across the Tassie in the company's somewhat slumped shares. I say good on them. We criticise the company for not keeping investors adequately informed and for not doing enought to prevent the SP slide. This was not only a presentation to potential major investors, which is to be encouraged, but an update with some new information. But some people prefer to be critical whatever they do. It could have been inspired by recent reports suggesting that Australian investors are reducing exposure to the mining sector and looking for opportunities elsewhere.

[skid]

Fair enough--Good Summary NT (the mining thing is an interesting concept)and point taken miner. (not earth shattering ,but none the less new)-----It did boost the SP a bit (but the rest they are going to have to earn)

You back in NG?

[black knat]

hi everyone,

Here is my take on things with PEB.

1.The FY report to March 2015 will be out late May and will be generally in line with annalist exceptions of on revenue which means they are probably 2 years behind the 100m target - this will result in a modest up tick in SP.
2. Announcement on this signing of Veterans Assoc will be around June - will be significantly positive for the SP.
3. The KP study will have results by September, they will be positive and anns will again be positive for the SP.
4. CMS coverage will be delayed until year end when it will be granted - will be very positive for SP.
5. St Bede's will come 5th in the maadi cup. But the big boy on the news will get an NZ trial anyway!

In between there SP will drift and it will not be until CMS coverage is confirmed that the SP gains significant traction. But that will happen at some point.

I sold about 80% of my share a few months back when it became apparent that CMS would be significantly delayed. I have been thinking about a re-entry mid 60.

Happy to be unbanned - but I do seem to have been a "junior member" for a very long time....

[percy]

Well it is good to see you back, black knat.I am one of many who have missed you.

[couta1]

Well it is good to see you back, black knat.I am one of many who have missed you.
Yes welcome back black knat I wonder if the Moose will also make a return?

[Baa_Baa]

ditto, welcome back BK


Well it is good to see you back, black knat.I am one of many who have missed you.

[psychic]

Yes - welcome back BK, great to see you pop back up. Vets before CMS you reckon? And June! I'd have no problem with that.. :)
I'm a bit worried about your plan to get back in mid sixties, but we will see. Cheers

[Xerof]

Ah good, BK is back. I will alter my 'protest' signature one last time :t_up:

C'mon hoops, man up

[skid]

Yes - welcome back BK, great to see you pop back up. Vets before CMS you reckon? And June! I'd have no problem with that.. :)
I'm a bit worried about your plan to get back in mid sixties, but we will see. Cheers

Yep the more the better in terms of input--Thats a pretty detailed plan BK :)

--Keep in mind it was only days ago that his ''mid sixties'' was only a few cents away--anything can happen.