PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[black knat]

Thanks guys - I missed you too... :crying:

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks guys - I missed you too... :crying:
Aw - shucks.
Good on you, mate
Any particular clarification on your enthusiastic VA assessment available?
Is there something we have missed?

Apart from you us and vice versa.

[MAC]

Those of us whom are content with the progress of the company and roll out, know that the intrinsic value being ever accumulated as each month passes will come to fore when ready.

There are three new molecular diagnostic companies which have been leap frogging each other over the last two years, these being EXAS, MDXH and PEB.

Each now have their first molecular biomarker test in the market place for colorectal, prostate and bladder cancers respectfully, and each appear to have the best performing clinical test for each respective cancer type.

EXAS and MDXH achieved Medicare coverage late last year, PEB could be any time now with adequate tests having been performed within the FY15 year, and with three pending papers and publications adding to their dossier of clinical utility.

EXAS MDXH PEB Two Year Chart (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBcomp_zpseqqaqjua.jpg.html)

Exact Sciences (EXAS)
Colon cancer diagnostic test - Cologuard
$1.8M annual revenues
Market capitalisation $2.07B
Medicare coverage achieved - October 2014
Share price appreciation (last 2 years) 135%

MDxHealth (MDXH)
Prostate cancer diagnostic test - ConfirmMDx
$9.4M in annual revenues
Market capitalisation $180M
Medicare coverage achieved - September 2014
Share price appreciation (last 2 years) 130%

Pacific Edge Diagnostics (PEB)
Bladder cancer diagnostic test - Cxbladder
$3.2M estimated at FY15 in annual revenues
Market capitalisation $226M
Medicare coverage achieved - Soon
Share price appreciation (last 2 years) 5%

7232

[Whipmoney]

Those of us whom are content with the progress of the company and roll out, know that the intrinsic value being ever accumulated as each month passes will come to fore when ready.

There are three new molecular diagnostic companies which have been leap frogging each other over the last two years, these being EXAS, MDXH and PEB.

Each now have their first molecular biomarker test in the market place for colorectal, prostate and bladder cancers respectfully, and each appear to have the best performing clinical test for each respective cancer type.

EXAS and MDXH achieved Medicare coverage late last year, PEB could be any time now with adequate tests having been performed within the FY15 year, and with three pending papers and publications adding to their dossier of clinical utility.

EXAS MDXH PEB Two Year Chart (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBcomp_zpseqqaqjua.jpg.html)

Exact Sciences (EXAS)
Colon cancer diagnostic test - Cologuard
$1.8M annual revenues
Market capitalisation $2.07B
Medicare coverage achieved - October 2014
Share price appreciation (last 2 years) 135%

MDxHealth (MDXH)
Prostate cancer diagnostic test - ConfirmMDx
$9.4M in annual revenues
Market capitalisation $180M
Medicare coverage achieved - September 2014
Share price appreciation (last 2 years) 130%

Pacific Edge Diagnostics (PEB)
Bladder cancer diagnostic test - Cxbladder
$3.2M estimated at FY15 in annual revenues
Market capitalisation $226M
Medicare coverage achieved - Soon
Share price appreciation (last 2 years) 5%

7232

How come MDxHealth (MDXH) has the smallest Market Cap, despite the highest revenues? Is this due to a smaller addressable market than the other two?

[skid]

Mac-why would you use any of the time before these companys got medicare coverage in your figures? (thats just smoke and mirrors)

You should start at the point when medicare cover started.In the case of MDXH the SP actually went down for 1 1/2 months before rising so one could argue that medicare was not necessarily the main factor

Exas went up, but its a big high profile co with the ear of big American stock news--without that it would be more like MDXH(with a similar market cap as PEB)

So when medicare coverage is achieved (did you mean Soon,as in the shiny new Christmas present you were looking for ?) some could argue there will be time to jump on board then,without dishing out dosh now, that could be better spent.

Its an interesting post but it could be interpreted in a number of ways

[MAC]

Not at all, that particular two year period is typically representative of the time between these products first leaving the lab, first commercial sales, and Medicare coverage being achieved.

During that period biotech companies increase their inherent value as they successfully complete clinical trials, commercially launch, and achieve coverage.

I'm comfortable with my $1.85 valuation on PEB, it hasn't changed over the last two years just due to the short term sentiment or squiggly line obsessions of others.

The intrinsic value within the company and within their products and pipeline increases more every month that ticks by, every patent adds value, as does every Cxbladder test processed as it add’s to the CMS clinical utility evidence dossier.

I do agree that the NASDAQ would probably have better recognised the value in PEB thus far in a less volatile way.

Biotech companies are not well understood in NZ, you can see that from many of the posts on this thread alone, but the value within the company remains all the same, who knows what catalyst will trigger that recognition on the NZX.

DISC: There’s lot’s of products in the queue behind this one in the pipeline, I'm a content long term holder, and happy to be so for a few years yet.

[Minerbarejet]

How come MDxHealth (MDXH) has the smallest Market Cap, despite the highest revenues? Is this due to a smaller addressable market than the other two?
Market Cap has nothing to do with revenues directly.
Market Cap is obtained by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the current market price.
EXAS has 88.67 million shares, MDXH only has 37.68m , PEB has 318.62m.
Of course if the revenues are up then the share price may go up thereby increasing the Mcap indirectly.

[Whipmoney]

Market Cap has nothing to do with revenues directly.
Market Cap is obtained by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the current market price.
EXAS has 88.67 million shares, MDXH only has 37.68m , PEB has 318.62m.
Of course if the revenues are up then the share price may go up thereby increasing the Mcap indirectly.

Really...??????

A company's Market Cap is essentially the equity valuation of a company, which in the case of bio-tech is directly related to their revenue, revenue growth, cost structure and other factors (e.g. competition, size of addressable market, quality of product, regulatory requirements etc).

Yes MCap is a function of share-price multiplied by the no. of shares outstanding, but the value of each specific share is a function of what I have outlined above.

[MAC]

Market cap over the long term is a recognition of the forward estimated free cashflows that the market determines a company will ultimately generate.

Short term moves in market cap over short term durations is entirely a recognition of market whims.

However, it all has little to do with very early stage biotech revenues, when those very early stage revenues are very small indeed compared to the magnitude of the long run free cashflows that the market may determine will ultimately value a company.

How was that Miner ?

[Whipmoney]

Market cap over the long term is a recognition of the forward estimated free cashflows that the market determines a company will ultimately generate.

Short term moves in market cap over short term durations is entirely a recognition of market whims.

However, it all has little to do with very early stage biotech revenues, when those very early stage revenues are very small indeed compared to the magnitude of the long run free cash-flows that the market may determine will ultimately value a company.

How was that Miner ?

Market cap over the long term is a recognition of the forward estimated free cash-flows that the market determines a company will ultimately generate. - This is theoretical. Whilst this may fit nicely within a corporate finance / DCF Analysis frame-work, not all market participants are fundamental investors/corporate finance type investors, and DCF is somewhat difficult to perform on biotech companies. In fact I would suspect that DCF analysis makes up a tiny component of PEB's MCap Valuation. Speculation and news-flow is likely to be the main driver.


Short term moves in market cap over short term durations is entirely a recognition of market whims. A Long-term investment horizon is simply the aggregate of many smaller short-term horizons.

However, it all has little to do with very early stage biotech revenues, when those very early stage revenues are very small indeed compared to the magnitude of the long run free cash-flows that the market may determine will ultimately value a company. Actually I believe it has a lot to do with early stage revenues as they are one of the best indicators of long-term revenues, and they also happen to demonstrate initial market penetration. It is exponentially harder to value a company using DCF analysis, when they have no revenue than when they have some revenue.

The problem with DCF analysis this particular company is that when you work out your FCFF's for the first 3,5,10 years you will be making invariably massive assumptions around where the revenue falls for each of these years (revenue being a key driver of FCFF). This kind of 'heuristic' modelling, whilst useful for demonstrating benchmark values, completely disregards the concept of 'probabilistic expectations'.

[winner69]

Whipmoney, your comments re probabilistic expectations

Agree, but what do you apply the probabilities to?

Wouldn't be DCF valuations under different scenarios / assumptions would it?

[skid]

Not at all, that particular two year period is typically representative of the time between these products first leaving the lab, first commercial sales, and Medicare coverage being achieved.

During that period biotech companies increase their inherent value as they successfully complete clinical trials, commercially launch, and achieve coverage.

I'm comfortable with my $1.85 valuation on PEB, it hasn't changed over the last two years just due to the short term sentiment or squiggly line obsessions of others.

The intrinsic value within the company and within their products and pipeline increases more every month that ticks by, every patent adds value, as does every Cxbladder test processed as it add’s to the CMS clinical utility evidence dossier.

I do agree that the NASDAQ would probably have better recognised the value in PEB thus far in a less volatile way.

Biotech companies are not well understood in NZ, you can see that from many of the posts on this thread alone, but the value within the company remains all the same, who knows what catalyst will trigger that recognition on the NZX.

DISC: There’s lot’s of products in the queue behind this one in the pipeline, I'm a content long term holder, and happy to be so for a few years yet.

If the point of your post was to say that once Medicare is achieved ,it will increase the value of the SP .then everything before that is just noise-why clutter things up with all the other factors--thats the danger of using statistics and timelines (of course we dont know what other factors have come into play after Medicare coverage with these companies as well,so its a difficult correlation to make)

Its hard to imagine that Medicare acceptance would not have a benefit in the long run-but my main argument was that investors would still have time to jump on board if things finally looked like they were ''lining up''--Even with Medicare achievement,it has to translate into meaningful sales.--Do you jump in 'boots and all'' or wait for more of a confirmation that things are on track--That is the decision that investors have to make,one way or the other according to their investing strategy,risk,etc

A poster once made the statement a year or so back--''you cant afford not to invest in this stock''---I dont think that is the case at this point in time --Its steady as she goes (no reason to either panic and sell ,or buy)

[Minerbarejet]

Yes MCap is a function of share-price multiplied by the no. of shares outstanding, but the value of each specific share is a function of what I have outlined above.
Well thank goodness I got that bit right.
Think we have to remember here that we dont know in most cases whom we are dealing with on these threads, you may be a top financier or an accountant of some repute or you could be an investor yet to make an investment. We are allowed to participate within reason and if somebody asks a question I will do my best to answer it. It deserved an answer but nobody else seemed interested.
Ill always give it a go, mate, nothing to lose and we all learn one way or another.:)

[Whipmoney]

Whipmoney, your comments re probabilistic expectations

Agree, but what do you apply the probabilities to?

Wouldn't be DCF valuations under different scenarios / assumptions would it?

Again, it all comes back to assumptions (as in the case of all forms of valuation) however if I were to entertain undertaking DCF analysis on PEB I would probably build 'expected value' tables to calculate revenue for each of the years leading up to the terminal value year (i.e. where long-run growth assumptions kick-in).

The expected values are the sum of the of possible revenue outcomes for a given year (e.g. 2015: $3.6m, $3.7m.. $4.0m... $5.0m) multiplied by the probability of each outcome occurring. In this case the probability for each revenue outcome is a bit of a guess, however assumptions can be made using comparisons from the growth trajectories of equivalent companies (who are further down the track of market penetration).

I would make the model dynamic so that the Expected Values feed directly into the annual revenues that derive the DCF value, and then you can tweak the probabilities (or revenue ranges) to get a spectrum of DCF values. It's a lot of work of course!

[Whipmoney]

Well thank goodness I got that bit right.
Think we have to remember here that we dont know in most cases whom we are dealing with on these threads, you may be a top financier or an accountant of some repute or you could be an investor yet to make an investment. We are allowed to participate within reason and if somebody asks a question I will do my best to answer it. It deserved an answer but nobody else seemed interested.
Ill always give it a go, mate, nothing to lose and we all learn one way or another.:)

I didn't mean to discourage you Miner and you're views are probably worth more than mine. If your interested in corporate finance valuations then anything from Aswath Damodaran (Professor at Stern NYU) is worth a read. He has a great blog too.

It's an interesting concept however, your a 100% right that mathematically the Market Cap is simply derived from multiplying the No. of Shares outstanding x the share price.

However essentially this is a chicken egg argument. Given that the no. of shares outstanding is essentially fixed, is the market cap simply a function of the share price, or are the shares priced as a function of their market cap. I.e. if an individual (or collective) of investors thought that the equity valuation for PEB was $250m max, with 318,615,921 shares on issue, then will they progressively push the price up to their limit of $0.78c. Food for thought.

[MAC]

Companies have intrinsic value Whipmoney, recognised over time, that value has very little to do with short term random moves in share price or sentiment. And also very little to do with the magnitude of very early revenues, but I would agree that the timing of the foot of a revenue curve is indicative and predictive.

Over the long term it’s about the markets expectation of forward business case efficacy, at the end of the day, and the profits the market expects that efficacy to ultimately return to shareholders.

Molecular diagnostic biotech revenue curves are usually roughly in step with coverage as can be seen in this example for OncotypeDX.

When companies achieve Medicare coverage the insurers and other organisations tend to come on board incrementally after that, over a period of around five years, sometimes four years, sometimes six years.

It’s typically though a five year adoption process of coverage for these types of test products and the typical sales curves are thus also typically five years.

And, that is why Pacific Edge have adopted a five year plan as an indicative goal.

DCF sensitivity analysis is important sure, as is the market research and expectation level of the primary business base case, and the business model being applied by Pacific Edge has been well proven by others whom have gone before.

OncotypeDX Coverage vs Sales Chart (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBonco_zpsgvwo7a4p.jpg.html)

7239

[NT001]

As an investor with a longterm time horizon, who understands little or nothing about the technicalities of TA, but who takes a deep interest in the companies he is investing in, I would disagree that "A Long-term investment horizon is simply the aggregate of many smaller short-term horizons."

Looking at companies like PEB, BLT, ATM or even CRP, for example, short term horizons seem to have little relevance, partly because they are all building towards a long term horizon themselves, and doing so in highly volatile market and regulatory conditions.

For the same reason I believe early stage revenues are not that important. I note that in this interesting discussion it is agreed that however you go about valuing a company in this kind of investment sector, the result will depend on a lot of assumptions. There is truth in Whipmoney's contention that speculation and news-flow will be important drivers in forming people's views. But in my case and I think in many others, investors will be motivated by informed hunch and even an element of faith, albeit based on research. They are not working to an investment plan that has to yield returns year by year to put food on the table. Of course, you need to be investing money that you can afford to lose, or at least take a semi-calculated gamble that the successes, over time, will outweigh the losses. I've absorbed writeoffs or losses on Botry Zen and CRP for example, but am still ahead of the game and very confident about PEB and ATM.

The difficulty in all this is to know how much of the market cap in any company is controlled by TA investors, FA investors and straight-out gamblers, and what methodologies and motivations are driving them.

[Minerbarejet]

Agree its a chicken, egg argument.

From that can we say the collective thought at the time of 1.70 was that PEB was worthy of a 6-700m mcap and deserved ranking at about 35 on the top50? :scared:

Or euphoria, speculation, call it what you will and a total disregard for mcap?

Will be watching that much more closely in future. Thanks

[skid]

[QUOTE=Minerbarejet;565379]Agree its a chicken, egg argument.

From that can we say the collective thought at the time of 1.70 was that PEB was worthy of a 6-700m mcap and deserved ranking at about 35 on the top50? :scared:

Or euphoria, speculation, call it what you will and a total disregard for mcap?

I think in retrospect we would have to say a definite no it was not worthy of a 700mil market cap

Im just looking at another biotec that has a market cap of 457mil (last report) with sales of 14.3 million hy15 and a profit of 1.2 mil.

PEB has a way to go before having a market cap of even half that 700mil ($1.85 SP ?.....I dont think so)

[Whipmoney]

Companies have intrinsic value Whipmoney, recognised over time, that value has very little to do with short term random moves in share price or sentiment. And also very little to do with the magnitude of very early revenues, but I would agree that the timing of the foot of a revenue curve is indicative and predictive. [Quote]

I agree that all company's have some form of intrinsic value, and that their intrinsic value will vary over the life of the company. Without going over the whole FA vs TA argument, it is fairly evident that not all companies trade closely (in terms of Market Cap) to their respective intrinsic values. The market frequently under/over shoots.

I disagree that early revenues are important as they are a key indicator that penetration (market acceptance) is possible. I would be more concerned if PEB generated zero revenue in its first three years of commercialization than I am about whether they generate $100m or $110m in year 5,6 or whatever. Because the is a causal link between the former and latter, i.e. the company will never reach $100m revenue if it fails to reach $1m in revenue.

[Quote]
Over the long term it’s about the markets expectation of forward business case efficacy, at the end of the day, and the profits the market expects that efficacy to ultimately return to shareholders.

This is your perspective, and therefore doesn't represent the perspective of the market participants as an aggregate. There will invariably traders/speculators who are taking positions now with respect to perceived gains from potential news-flow (i.e. adoption of CMS coverage).




Molecular diagnostic biotech revenue curves are usually roughly in step with coverage as can be seen in this example for OncotypeDX.

When companies achieve Medicare coverage the insurers and other organizations tend to come on board incrementally after that, over a period of around five years, sometimes four years, sometimes six years.

It’s typically though a five year adoption process of coverage for these types of test products and the typical sales curves are thus also typically five years.

And, that is why Pacific Edge have adopted a five year plan as an indicative goal.

DCF sensitivity analysis is important sure, as is the market research and expectation level of the primary business base case, and the business model being applied by Pacific Edge has been well proven by others whom have gone before.

OncotypeDX Coverage vs Sales Chart (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBonco_zpsgvwo7a4p.jpg.html)

7239

I am well aware of Genomic Health's growth/share-price trajectory and it's obvious that PEB have used them as a base case / proxy for their sales growth. Genomic are proof of concept however they are not the same company, and started their commercialization (without any relevant competitors) in 2004 and their success may have zero relevance to PEB's.

[MAC]

Good luck to you, I wish you well.

[Whipmoney]

Good luck to you, I wish you well.

Thanks MAC, good debate.

[MAC]

I see Forsyth Barr have raised their price target for Pacific Edge from $1.25 to $1.30 with a BUY rating.

Not a big move and personally I still think they have conservatively under cooked it, but it represents a continuation of the melt up that they all but told us they would do over time.

[MAC]

any ideas what's driving this (most welcome) rally?

Just the business case, 100% clinical performance, and all the potential in the world;

PEB Cxbladder diagnostic test: $100M in revenues by FY19
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

GHDX OncotypeDX diagnostic test: $1B in revenues by FY20
http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...esentation.pdf (http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/GHDX/4152688596x0x683953/57935EC6-E76A-47F8-A583-D7E8FA24EA35/corporate_presentation.pdf)

[skid]

Mac, Could I respectfully ask if you are associated with PEB in any other way than just a shareholder?

[MAC]

Mac, Could I respectfully ask if you are associated with PEB in any other way than just a shareholder?

I'm just a humble investor, don't have any inside info, aside from a good network of fellow investors more experienced than myself and the collective knowledge that brings.

But if you are asking if I am positive about this company, then the answer is an honest absolutely, and I don't mind sharing that positivity and representing the balanced view of other shareholders on a forum with way far too many manipulative negative short term motivated disingenuous folk.

Have a nice day :)

kind regards, Mac

[Tsuba]

I'm just a humble investor, don't have any inside info, aside from a good network of fellow investors more experienced than myself and the collective knowledge that brings.

But if you are asking if I am positive about this company, then the answer is an honest absolutely, and I don't mind sharing that positivity and representing the balanced view of other shareholders on a forum with way far too many manipulative negative short term motivated disingenuous folk.

Have a nice day :)

kind regards, Mac

Well answered MAC ;)

[skid]

I'm just a humble investor, don't have any inside info, aside from a good network of fellow investors more experienced than myself and the collective knowledge that brings.

But if you are asking if I am positive about this company, then the answer is an honest absolutely, and I don't mind sharing that positivity and representing the balanced view of other shareholders on a forum with way far too many manipulative negative short term motivated disingenuous folk.

Have a nice day :)

kind regards, Mac

No probs--I know you are positive about the company and thats fine--Its just that, at times ,it felt you had some vested interest and seemed to be promoting the company in a way,that made me compelled to ask--no offence intended.

Not sure if honestly questioning things at times would be considered manipulative, or representing a balanced view--guess it depends on who is doing the considering.

Enjoy the rise..

[barney]

any ideas what's driving this (most welcome) rally?

Maybe the recent presentation to Aussie institutions has given it a bit of a lift. Obviously there is an eminent announcement due regarding expansion into Asia via Singapore. In the presentation they mention appointing a supply chain logistics provider, hiring sales staff, and initiating four user programs in hospitals and clinics. All this means extra costs, possibly significant.

This may be an indication that they are confident that their revenue is heading in the right direction and that any extra costs will be well covered. I would assume ( hope ) that they would not load extra costs into the business at this stage unless they were sure they had the capacity to deal with it.

[blobbles]

No probs--I know you are positive about the company and thats fine--Its just that, at times ,it felt you had some vested interest and seemed to be promoting the company in a way,that made me compelled to ask--no offence intended.
Glad to see theres been a bit of a jump today for holders.

Yes a large and pretty unjustified run up today. What's going on? I hope this is just normal price fluctuations, if something "important" happens next week I think it will be a re-run of the Xero incident a month or so back. Of course if that happens with PEB I will get the hell out of there, cannot justify investing in a leaky company which is why I got the hell out of Xero after that announcement too. Disgraceful. I sold higher than I bought, I guess that is all that is important personally but being invested long term in a company where some investors are privy to more information than others is a recipe for disaster. I suppose NZ's reputation as a non corrupt country is being diluted as our companies get exposed to the corruption of other countries?

Anyway, ignore this if we don't get anything from PEB in the next few days. All TA indicators appear to be saying "Run for the hills!", so an increase of this magnitude is slightly suspicious to me. With 415k shares traded already, it doesn't help my suspicion (usually PEB averages 100-200k a day). Am I jumping at shadows in the closet? Time will tell... I hope so. I only have a small 20k holding now, guess not too much to win (or lose depending on how you look at it).

[skid]

I can understand your concerns (after Xero)and it would be a shame if that happened,but just for the record,I was'nt insinuating in any way that there was any insider stuff going on when I asked my question--It was more a ''using a poster as a form of advertising''--but I respect Macs word that I was off the mark (just as he was on a few of his assumptions in response)
I have a few inexperienced acquaintances who took a pretty big hit by listening to some of those posts some time back and feel the need to step in at times just to keep things in perspective.(at the risk of stepping on a few toes)
I fully realize there are some who do try to manipulate for their own benefit and dont condone that.

Lets see how next week pans out --:)

[Minerbarejet]

Ah, and therein lies the difference.
I cant wait to see how 2016 pans out.:)

[Xerof]

I realise Forbar's are more associated with buckets than champagne glasses, but I presume they have got a few clients into PEB, based on their latest upgrade and buy recco? I thought that would have been a fairly obvious correlation.

That aside, don't most of you think this has fallen far enough? - bruce almighty

Like the Knat, I was hoping to see low 60's before a bounce - maybe 67 was it? (where are the metronomic downrampers when you need them - lol)

[Dentie]

Yes a large and pretty unjustified run up today. What's going on? I hope this is just normal price fluctuations, if something "important" happens next week I think it will be a re-run of the Xero incident a month or so back. Of course if that happens with PEB I will get the hell out of there, cannot justify investing in a leaky company which is why I got the hell out of Xero after that announcement too. Disgraceful. I sold higher than I bought, I guess that is all that is important personally but being invested long term in a company where some investors are privy to more information than others is a recipe for disaster. I suppose NZ's reputation as a non corrupt country is being diluted as our companies get exposed to the corruption of other countries?

Anyway, ignore this if we don't get anything from PEB in the next few days. All TA indicators appear to be saying "Run for the hills!", so an increase of this magnitude is slightly suspicious to me. With 415k shares traded already, it doesn't help my suspicion (usually PEB averages 100-200k a day). Am I jumping at shadows in the closet? Time will tell... I hope so. I only have a small 20k holding now, guess not too much to win (or lose depending on how you look at it).

Mutually exclusive? Interesting correlation I must say Blobbles. Also interesting that them thar hills are not already enjoying your company....

[Minerbarejet]

In the recent release to the Australian Institutions there was an intriguing note attached to the 4th Quarter lab throughput graph stating that the implementing of the Affordable Care Act had affected this particular 4th Quarter.

This is why CMS is such a long time coming for Pacific Edge.

In addition, as required by the Affordable Care Act, the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (http://www.fiercemedicaldevices.com/tags/centers-medicare-and-medicaid-services) are revalidating all Medicare suppliers and providers, DOJ said in a release (http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/departments-justice-and-health-and-human-services-announce-over-278-billion-returns-joint). The agency has stopped billing nearly 500,000 providers so far. It is applying advanced analytic techniques to screen all Medicare fee-for-service claims for fraud.

Its all in the release.

[skid]

Hancocks ,i am a bit surprised at your debate about aquisitions--surely you must know it is happening alot.
Now,whether anyone wants PEB, is a different debate.
But just in terms of acquisitions...

http://www.thepharmaletter.com/listing/mergers-acquisitions/rare-diseases?tagid[]=48

It does seem at times that supporters spend alot of time researching the product(fair enough) but far less time researching the outside markets. OK they have 12 sales staff and things have been slowed up because of the affordable care act--thats a start.
I realize its not an easy thing to research but it should keep the lid on getting to carried away with predictions (actually you have been pretty level headed in that area--i should direct that to another poster)
I can see how some posters can rub you the wrong way,(maybe Im guilty of that also)but surely you must see how the ''daily advertising'' also detracts more than it helps.

On a completely different note--How would you feel about an acquisition? More money in holders pocket in exchange for being gobbled up by a big player and the resulting loss of identity.(this is not a for or against PEBs present course--just an interesting concept given the level of interest in this thread.

[Carpenterjoe]

Hancocks ,i am a bit surprised at your debate about aquisitions--surely you must know it is happening alot.
Now,whether anyone wants PEB, is a different debate.
But just in terms of acquisitions...

http://www.thepharmaletter.com/listing/mergers-acquisitions/rare-diseases?tagid[]=48

It does seem at times that supporters spend alot of time researching the product(fair enough) but far less time researching the outside markets. OK they have 12 sales staff and things have been slowed up because of the affordable care act--thats a start.
I realize its not an easy thing to research but it should keep the lid on getting to carried away with predictions (actually you have been pretty level headed in that area--i should direct that to another poster)
I can see how some posters can rub you the wrong way,(maybe Im guilty of that also)but surely you must see how the ''daily advertising'' also detracts more than it helps.

On a completely different note--How would you feel about an acquisition? More money in holders pocket in exchange for being gobbled up by a big player and the resulting loss of identity.(this is not a for or against PEBs present course--just an interesting concept given the level of interest in this thread.

Skid,

I think Hancocks, is simply asking for posters to be a little more generous with their research. Or to back up statements with evidence.

I would guess there are only a hand full of people that know the conversations that took place with Roche.

I would hate to see this company sold off In the next five years. The long term potential for this company is unmeasurable.

[skid]

In the recent release to the Australian Institutions there was an intriguing note attached to the 4th Quarter lab throughput graph stating that the implementing of the Affordable Care Act had affected this particular 4th Quarter.

This is why CMS is such a long time coming for Pacific Edge.

In addition, as required by the Affordable Care Act, the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (http://www.fiercemedicaldevices.com/tags/centers-medicare-and-medicaid-services) are revalidating all Medicare suppliers and providers, DOJ said in a release (http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/departments-justice-and-health-and-human-services-announce-over-278-billion-returns-joint). The agency has stopped billing nearly 500,000 providers so far. It is applying advanced analytic techniques to screen all Medicare fee-for-service claims for fraud.

Its all in the release.



I guess its understandable why they are doing this,but it hasnt come at a great time--the wheels of the CMS have obviously slowed while this process happens--not great for small companies just getting on their feet-How long of a wait while this process happens is anyones guess-hopefully the pendulum will not swing to far creating unnecessary hoops to jump through for claims (once PEB gets to that point)--Is it a genuine attempt to stop fraud or a Government cost cutting scheme(or both)?

We just hosted a young girl visiting from the States--She mentioned Obama care (while it seemed like a good idea to me) is wreaking havoc with some people in terms of forced costs.(Im not sure how this plays into the CMS thing,(cost cutting)but good to note)

[MAC]

Imagine Hancock’s how if some of these down rampers were to put all that wasted fruitless time and energy into something productive and purposeful, like starting a small business, just how far ahead in life they could be for themselves and their families, rather than spending their weekday working hours just trolling on the internet like graffiti taggers achieving little in ones short life.

[skid]

Thanx Mac --That added alot to the debate..

My acquaintance mentioned he could have probably started a small business with the money he would have saved by not listening to your posts a year ago.

[MAC]

Thanks, you know, a wise old fellow said to me once, that we should each live our lives like we are looking back on it telling our grandchildren stories about what we achieved and what they should look to as an example in life.

Imagine some would have to say;

“now listen up kids, I spent an absurdly disproportionate amount of my life on the internet unnecessarily slandering hard working company directors who had no real right of reply, it made me feel great and satisfied my personality disorder superbly, then, for many years I made it my life’s ambition to try and scare new and young investors into selling their hard earned holdings so I could make a quick buck, alas though they all saw through me, but it gave me an enormous buzz knowing that I at least tried to relentlessly screw people”

[skid]

You can imagine all you want..but Im talking about real people with real losses---no one said sell--but 'dont buy' until you have looked further would have served him well.
I believe you should have been a bit more careful with your statements--just because they are positive doesnt make them right.

if he had sold his hard earned earnings between $1.70 and $1.50 he would have been far better off.

You can attack if you like ,but you have been wrong,far more than right in terms of peoples hard earned money.

[MAC]

It’s a matter of perspective and duration skid,

I emphasise with some short termers, particularly those who are new to it and perhaps are yet to fully realise the risks they take and their low probability success they have at it.

Cognisantly though, at the end of the day, anyone trying to make a greedy quick buck, and who fails, only has themselves to blame, it was self inflicted.

Whether they bought at 70c in 2013 and sold at 50c in 2014, or, whether they bought at $1.70 in 2014 and sold at 70c in 2015, or, whether they buy at $5 in 2017 and sell at $4 in 2018.

From a long term shareholder’s perspective it’s all just noise along the way, and a minority crying about ones greed driven failures in no way is a reflection on the long term strategic roll out of the company.

I do think though there is a case to say that the NZX is more fickle and volatile than say the NASDAQ, in less consistently appreciating the potential in growth companies, but that also is in no way a fair reason to relentlessly slander or trash Pacific Edge.

7243

[Dentie]

My acquaintance mentioned he could have probably started a small business with the money he would have saved by not listening to your posts a year ago.

With some authority on this Skid (25 years in starting up & trading several successful small businesses - all funded by initial personal equity followed by retained earnings)....... based on your above comments - I suspect your acquaintance may not have survived in a small business start up anyway.

Your acquaintance may have made his decision to buy PEB shares after reading MAC's posts (did he do any independent research of his own?) ..... but WHO did he listen to before deciding to sell those shares, therefore cementing in such losses? This was his real mistake!

[skid]

WOOOHOOO!!!
Now there's a positive comment if I've read one on this forum! Thanks Mac for your wise words:). I am a very new kid on the block and have with interest and "dismay" read some of these threads over the last few months. I know there is is always a bit of banter involved as well, but hey, lets keep it positive and look to the future PEB are on a winner here!

may 12th SP approx $1.10----Yes Dents ,more caution should have been used-(and perhaps advised)-You have hit the nail on the head


Disc-i dont know if he has sold or not--all I have ever said from time to time is caution--it may not be the sure thing that it sounds

Cementing in losses is not always as bad as it sounds--Its a psychological hit--but he would have been far better to have sold @$1.05 and bought back at a better time (even $1.05 on the way back up)

I have no intention of talking the price down in order to buy in--To me it would be smarter to wait till they are more derisked which means sacrificing some early gains.

[Minerbarejet]

may 12th SP approx $1.10----Yes Dents ,more caution should have been used-(and perhaps advised)-You have hit the nail on the headso after having done a whole bunch of research did this "acquaintance" buy them back at . 65 to more or less end up all square at the current level of .77?

[Dentie]

Interesting comments.......... personally I retired at 38 myself after several years of smart investing.
Now have more time for the greatest and rewarding challenge of them all....raising kids.
Here's some free advice..........if you believe what you are being told is not the truth just because you do not like what is being said then there is a good chance you are in denial.

Glad you have finally outed yourself as a "down ramper" Snaps.....but congrats at being able to retire at 38 after several years of smart investing. Nice work!

Good luck with the kids....personally I'm glad all that is behind me.

[skid]

so after having done a whole bunch of research did this "acquaintance" buy them back at . 65 to more or less end up all square at the current level of .77?

I dont know,but if he did, he took a gamble that happened to pay off,instead of waiting for an upturn

[skid]

It’s a matter of perspective and duration skid,

I emphasise with some short termers, particularly those who are new to it and perhaps are yet to fully realise the risks they take and their low probability success they have at it.

Cognisantly though, at the end of the day, anyone trying to make a greedy quick buck, and who fails, only has themselves to blame, it was self inflicted.

Whether they bought at 70c in 2013 and sold at 50c in 2014, or, whether they bought at $1.70 in 2014 and sold at 70c in 2015, or, whether they buy at $5 in 2017 and sell at $4 in 2018.

From a long term shareholder’s perspective it’s all just noise along the way, and a minority crying about ones greed driven failures in no way is a reflection on the long term strategic roll out of the company.

I do think though there is a case to say that the NZX is more fickle and volatile than say the NASDAQ, in less consistently appreciating the potential in growth companies, but that also is in no way a fair reason to relentlessly slander or trash Pacific Edge.

7243

Yes ,in the end it is ofcourse self inflicted and they only have themselves to blame--but part of the reason they should blame themselves is because they may have listened to your consistent posts and made the mistake of thinking this was a sure thing waiting to happen-which your posts imply.

Hancocks goes out of his way to emphasize the risks involved ,but sorry mac,I just dont see that in your posts.

I also dont think you are in any position to determine that anyone in particular is out to make a greedy buck,rather than making an honest investment and not losing their shirt(which involves caution)

Could you be more specific on who you are referring to when referring to relentlessly slandering and trashing Pacific edge?

Your little stories seem closer to slander than anything that has come from my keyboard about PEB,but dont get me wrong there can be obstacles to commercial success and there is no reason why they should not be debated.

[MAC]

As I’ve said, very many times on this thread actually skid, the risks are outlined very well by Pacific Edge in the FY13 report, they are there for all to see, to review, and are a secret to no one. Only the purposefully negative and cynical feel a need to take them around in circles to ad nauseam.

And, yes for your information very many if not all shareholders including myself are really very positive about this company, its outlook, potential and progress, if we were not we would not be long term holders of Pacific Edge.

IMO PEB has never been a sell in the three years or so I’ve been a holder, it’s all ways been a hold or a buy, as it continues to be. And, at this time I don’t see that changing in foreseeable future.

If short term folk choose jump in and out of a stock willie nillie, that is a personal choice, clearly they don’t do it based on research or due to opinions they read on the internet, they do it to chase the squiggly line.

I only come here to share research and to make good contact’s, but I don’t mind taking the time to balance the views of the manipulative and habitually negative and cynical.

Have a nice weekend.

[Mista_Trix]

For God's sake guys, play the ball not the man. The thread was looking pretty respectable for a few weeks - admittedly is was a quiet few weeks.

Discuss the company not each other - not aimed at anyone in particular, just the thread in general.

[Whitebeard]

Hancocks/Mac

Can you help out and decipher this..

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12894-015-0018-5.pdf (http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12894-015-0018-5.pdf)

Thanks

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks whitebeard,
This would appear to be excellent news on the face of it.
We have all been expecting this published report.:)

[MAC]

Hancocks/Mac

Can you help out and decipher this..

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12894-015-0018-5.pdf (http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12894-015-0018-5.pdf)

Thanks

Cheers Whitebeard for that, just published yesterday by the look of it.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209898.pdf

We're just awaiting the Cxbladder(detect) Breen comparitive paper now;

Breen et al (2015) A holistic comparative analysis of diagnostic tests for urothelial carcinoma: A study of Cxbladder Detect, Urovysion® FISH, NMP22® and cytology based on imputation of multiple datasets.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

many regards, Mac

[MAC]

Sensitivities and NPV findings look in line and all good, Hancock’s might like to offer a better opinion on those.

This paper will be well presented by Pacific Edge to both CMS and the insurers, and we may consider the potential savings to the overall US health system as approximately that below;

“On this basis, if we assign an arbitrary ‘nominal cost’ of US$4,500 for each full urological work up, the total cost for working up 1,000 patients with microhematuria would approach US$4.5 million. In contrast, if 80% of patients with microhematuria are triaged out using the G + P INDEX at an arbitrary nominal cost of US$2,500, the total direct cost of testing and full urological work-ups for the remaining 20% of patients would total US$3.4 million. This provides a notional net saving in direct costs of approximately US$1.1 million per 1,000 patients with microhematuria”

Heamaturia patients in the US per annum: 1,000,000

Thus, the collective approximate cost saving offered to US payers;

= US$1.1M x (1,000,000 / 1,000) = US$1.1B per annum,

Behold the potential market driver for Cxbladder(triage)

Add that to the value propositions of Cxbladder(detect) and those of Cxbladder(monitor) to be launched this year, and it is fair to say that these products may quite well be in demand.

[skid]

IMO PEB has never been a sell in the three years or so I’ve been a holder, it’s all ways been a hold or a buy, as it continues to be. And, at this time I don’t see that changing in foreseeable future.
************************************************** ****************************
I emphasise with some short termers, particularly those who are new to it and perhaps are yet to fully realise the risks they take and their low probability success they have at it.
************************************************** ***********************
Sorry guys--It just gets a bit much at times ,and it seemed like a fair question I asked (about being more than just a share holder) just for clarification

The kind of language and assumptions used in the response,well lets just say i wouldnt stoop to that--nuff said

Should be an interesting week ahead--guess we will see if its the Forbar or some other reason for the jump... or whether it will settle back.

[winner69]

Skid - wold your last post make more sense if the first paragraph wa attributed to MAC?

[Dentie]

IMO PEB has never been a sell in the three years or so I’ve been a holder, it’s all ways been a hold or a buy, as it continues to be. And, at this time I don’t see that changing in foreseeable future.

I emphasise with some short termers, particularly those who are new to it and perhaps are yet to fully realise the risks they take and their low probability success they have at it.

Sorry guys--It just gets a bit much at times ,and it seemed like a fair question I asked

The kind of language and assumptions used in the response,well lets just say i wouldnt stoop to that--nuff said

Should be an interesting week ahead--guess we will see if its the Forbar or some other reason for the jump... or whether it will settle back.

........Eh?

[skid]

Skid - wold your last post make more sense if the first paragraph wa attributed to MAC?

Your spot on Winner--Im not very good at multiple quotes so just copied and pasted--Dont want to dwell on it, but guess it needed clarifying.

I think Miner has brought up a good point on the stuff going on with the Affordable care act--They are doing alot of fraud investigations which could potentially slow the whole process down. Nothing to do with PEB in terms of dirt but we will have to wait and see if approvals are delayed because of the bureaucracy----Then again ,it could happen next week

[Minerbarejet]

Has anyone taken a decent look at the announcement from last night that validates cxbladder triage and has been published in biomedcentral.com?
Huge potential for cost savings in the US if it is adopted as MAC pointed out.

As I understand it a 10 percent uptake of triage would likely provide a pretty fair chunk of the 100 million goal.

I also understand from this document that the test is far superior to anything currently available that has the ability to triage with such a high NPV.
The bar has just been raised.:)

If anyone feels these are erroneous statements please feel free to give a reasoned and robust summary of your own opinions with due regard for the libel laws of this nation.
Noah Fence
Miner

[skid]

I think its the article they announced on the 18th

Must be just coming out

[MAC]

Each to one’s own, some of us buy multi year business plans and couldn't give a rats about what the share market may do between business plan release, market analysis assessment, and the fruition of said plan.

That's certainly the approach of the larger informed shareholders in Pacific Edge and the last three SSH's have been buys.

If you can guess the magnitude of the ebbs and flows in between, well good luck to you, most short term punters don't and find they can't get it right, hence all the crying over the last year or so.

I genuinely hope you prosper Snapiti along with all on the forum, although you may like to consider that there is more than one way to invest, and one may not appreciate what one may not see clearly or is yet to learn in the future.

[blobbles]

So it would be safe to say, Mac and Snapiti disagree to disagree? :p

[Minerbarejet]

So it would be safe to say, Mac and Snapiti disagree to disagree? :p
About as safe as a cxbladder triage test at 98% NPV.:)

[skid]

And for those of you who DO give a rats what the sharemarket does in the next 4-5 yrs until the plan reaches fruition--keep doing that research :)

[Minerbarejet]

And for those of you who DO give a rats what the sharemarket does in the next 4-5 yrs until the plan reaches fruition--keep doing that research :)RESEARCH!! RESEARCH!! ALL I HEAR IS ENDLESS BLOODY RESEARCH. I HAVE SPENT AT LEAST TWO YEARS DOING RESEARCH ON THIS STOCK. I KNOW MORE NOW ABOUT CANCER THAN I EVER DID BEFORE, THE WORKINGS OF COMPANIES IN THE BIOMEDICAL FIELD, ADMINISTRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, CMS, WHO PULLS WHAT STRINGS WHERE, OBAMACARE, READ ALL THE POSTS ON THIS FLAMING THREAD SINCE IT STARTED, CONTRIBUTED, READ ALL THE COMPANY RELEASES, PARTICIPATED IN A CAPITAL RAISING, STUDIED ANNUAL AND HALF YEARLY REPORTS IN MINUTE DETAIL, WATCHED THE SHARE PRICE GO UP AND DOWN, TA,FA, SHORT TERM TRADERS, LONG TERM HOLDERS, LISTENED TO A LOT OF GOOD ADVICE ON PM AND YOU WANT US TO DO SOME MORE RESEARCH!!!!! MORE RESEARCH!!!!NOT EVEN A SUGGESTION OF WHAT MIGHT BE WORTH RESEARCHING, JUST DO MORE RESEARCH.
AND IF I GET EXCOMMUNICATED FOR THIS WELL TOO BLOODY BAD
I HAVE HAD A GUTSFUL OF THIS RESEARCH CRAP, INNUENDO, CONTINUOUS NEGATIVE THINKING, CLAIMS OF EMOTIONAL INVOLVEMENT AND OTHER EQUINE SCATALOGICAL RESIDUE.

Hows that, MAC?
Cheers
Miner:)

[MAC]

Ha, all’s good in honest humour Miner, genuine shame that few can be bothered discussing any form of that elusive genuine research stuff you refer to anymore, either everyone has it all on board now, or we just can’t collectively be bothered searching through relentless pages of cynical tripe.

It's like the TV, you can fast forward the ads but it would still be nice to have an automatic filter :)

[Tsuba]

RESEARCH!! RESEARCH!! ALL I HEAR IS ENDLESS BLOODY RESEARCH. I HAVE SPENT AT LEAST TWO YEARS DOING RESEARCH ON THIS STOCK. I KNOW MORE NOW ABOUT CANCER THAN I EVER DID BEFORE, THE WORKINGS OF COMPANIES IN THE BIOMEDICAL FIELD, ADMINISTRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, CMS, WHO PULLS WHAT STRINGS WHERE, OBAMACARE, READ ALL THE POSTS ON THIS FLAMING THREAD SINCE IT STARTED, CONTRIBUTED, READ ALL THE COMPANY RELEASES, PARTICIPATED IN A CAPITAL RAISING, STUDIED ANNUAL AND HALF YEARLY REPORTS IN MINUTE DETAIL, WATCHED THE SHARE PRICE GO UP AND DOWN, TA,FA, SHORT TERM TRADERS, LONG TERM HOLDERS, LISTENED TO A LOT OF GOOD ADVICE ON PM AND YOU WANT US TO DO SOME MORE RESEARCH!!!!! MORE RESEARCH!!!!NOT EVEN A SUGGESTION OF WHAT MIGHT BE WORTH RESEARCHING, JUST DO MORE RESEARCH.
AND IF I GET EXCOMMUNICATED FOR THIS WELL TOO BLOODY BAD
I HAVE HAD A GUTSFUL OF THIS RESEARCH CRAP, INNUENDO, CONTINUOUS NEGATIVE THINKING, CLAIMS OF EMOTIONAL INVOLVEMENT AND OTHER EQUINE SCATALOGICAL RESIDUE.

Hows that, MAC?
Cheers
Miner:)


Very well researched Miner.

[couta1]

Hey Miner I'm not doing any more research on this stock, no I've done enough to know that the words of an old Bob Dylan song sum it up nicely, "There's A Slow Train Coming Round The Bend." Disc-Even produced my own research paper on another medical area some 20 years ago now:cool:

[skid]

RESEARCH!! RESEARCH!! ALL I HEAR IS ENDLESS BLOODY RESEARCH. I HAVE SPENT AT LEAST TWO YEARS DOING RESEARCH ON THIS STOCK. I KNOW MORE NOW ABOUT CANCER THAN I EVER DID BEFORE, THE WORKINGS OF COMPANIES IN THE BIOMEDICAL FIELD, ADMINISTRATION IN THE UNITED STATES, CMS, WHO PULLS WHAT STRINGS WHERE, OBAMACARE, READ ALL THE POSTS ON THIS FLAMING THREAD SINCE IT STARTED, CONTRIBUTED, READ ALL THE COMPANY RELEASES, PARTICIPATED IN A CAPITAL RAISING, STUDIED ANNUAL AND HALF YEARLY REPORTS IN MINUTE DETAIL, WATCHED THE SHARE PRICE GO UP AND DOWN, TA,FA, SHORT TERM TRADERS, LONG TERM HOLDERS, LISTENED TO A LOT OF GOOD ADVICE ON PM AND YOU WANT US TO DO SOME MORE RESEARCH!!!!! MORE RESEARCH!!!!NOT EVEN A SUGGESTION OF WHAT MIGHT BE WORTH RESEARCHING, JUST DO MORE RESEARCH.
AND IF I GET EXCOMMUNICATED FOR THIS WELL TOO BLOODY BAD
I HAVE HAD A GUTSFUL OF THIS RESEARCH CRAP, INNUENDO, CONTINUOUS NEGATIVE THINKING, CLAIMS OF EMOTIONAL INVOLVEMENT AND OTHER EQUINE SCATALOGICAL RESIDUE.

Hows that, MAC?
Cheers
Miner:)

Well,you could always be a cancer consultant:):)--(actually the research bit was not the main point of my post{those who dont give a rats what the sharemarket does in the next 4-5yrs ,please raise their hand})--(but its true we all know a bit more about cancer-Biomed-and even marketing to an extent)--But it was just a bit of humour amounst the bitterness (and Im sure alot got a chuckle from being able to relate to yours):)


But you did find the fact that the article is out before anyone else-you might be addicted:):)

[Minerbarejet]

But you did find the fact that the article is out before anyone else-you might be addicted:):)
Sorry, incorrect , Skid,
Whitebeard found it and posted it.
Credit where credit is due.:)

[klid]

Yes a large and pretty unjustified run up today. What's going on? I hope this is just normal price fluctuations, if something "important" happens next week I think it will be a re-run of the Xero incident a month or so back. Of course if that happens with PEB I will get the hell out of there, cannot justify investing in a leaky company which is why I got the hell out of Xero after that announcement too. Disgraceful.
I certainly hope not too and am looking out for this.

[Mista_Trix]

And through the 200MA she goes.

I wonder if it will hold by end of day.

[Tsuba]

The price goes up so some people think the company is leaking information ( shall we assume good info ). So if the price goes down do we assume the info leaked is bad. If the price stays steady can we assume that this company is leak proof.

[Minerbarejet]

The price goes up so some people think the company is leaking information ( shall we assume good info ). So if the price goes down do we assume the info leaked is bad. If the price stays steady can we assume that this company is leak proof.With PEB and its tests one way or another the proof is in the leak.:)

[Snow Leopard]

Well, I have read the paper and I do not know what to think of it!

I am totally unsure whether it is useful in any other way than it mentions CxBladder Detect five times (but CxBladder Triage is not mentioned once!).


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS Need to lie down until my head stops hurting :closed eyes:.

[Snow Leopard]

The problem:

Report, page 15, paragraph 1:

While the G + P INDEX was developed using data from patients with macrohematuria, its robustness was tested in a further 40 samples from patients with microhematuria (Hfreq = 0 for all microhematuria patients). A higher test-negative rate was expected in a microhematuria population as the incidence of UC is lower in this population, and using a test-negative rate of 0.4, 32 (80%) patients tested negative and would be correctly triaged out, therefore not requiring a full urological work-up for the determination of UC.

What I take this to mean is using the setting for a test-negative rate of 0.4 for the macro-hematuria population, when we applied it to the [statistically small] micro-hematuria population we got a a test-negative rate of 0.8.

WHAT?


Report, page 15, paragraph 4:

It is acknowledged that the population used to derive the G INDEX, P INDEX and G + P INDEX in this instance consisted of patients with macrohematuria. Therefore, the derived NPV values are only applicable to the macrohematuria population. The sensitivity of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.86–0.98) may, however, be applied across populations. Presuming that patients with and without UC are similarly distributed amongst the micro- and macrohematuria patient populations as depicted in [5,23-25], and that expected UC prevalence is 4% in the
microhematuria population, a higher NPV and test-negative rate can be expected in the target microhematuria population.

The do not mention the specificity of 0.45 that goes with the 0.95 sensitivity and you need to carry that across as well. So I would expect a test-negative rate (triaged out) of about 45%, given no UC in the group.

This is a statistical dis-connect!
And they just say isn't it great.
No explanation!

Anybody got any sensible ideas?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Carpenterjoe]

Good bit of revision, updated in March

nhc.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/.../haematuria-t2.docx

[Minerbarejet]

The problem:

Report, page 15, paragraph 1:


What I take this to mean is using the setting for a test-negative rate of 0.4 for the macro-hematuria population, when we applied it to the [statistically small] micro-hematuria population we got a a test-negative rate of 0.8.

WHAT?


Report, page 15, paragraph 4:


The do not mention the specificity of 0.45 that goes with the 0.95 sensitivity and you need to carry that across as well. So I would expect a test-negative rate (triaged out) of about 45%, given no UC in the group.

This is a statistical dis-connect!
And they just say isn't it great.
No explanation!

Anybody got any sensible ideas?

Best Wishes
Paper TigerBaffling isnt it!
Im going to strip this out and substitute another word for macrohaematuria like BIG and another one for microhaematuria like ​tiny. The M&Ms are too similar and easily discombobulated.
I suspect an inadvertent "i" replacing an "a "somewhere or vice versa.
May take a while, Ill get back if I find anything.:)

[Minerbarejet]

Really good find C-Joe, and lots of good reading in the 'Download' documents on the right hand side. This had been hinted at previously by Pacific Edge and it is great to see such good progress. If CxBladder can be introduced into the Standard of Care for Haematuria in NZ, then that is just marvellous.

HyperLink:http://nhc.health.govt.nz/diagnostics-overview (http://nhc.health.govt.nz/diagnostics-overview)Yes, well done CJ. There has always been this suspicion that NZ Health could be a tad slow out if the gates perhaps especially when Darling indicated that PEB was first cab off the rank and it was an unknown process for everybody. Delays in results of clinical trials publication hasnt helped either.
Good to see some progress here along with everything else.
Now where is that Breen report?

[psychic]

What Hancocks and Miner said. Great stuff CJ. Lots to absorb here. Chuck the Triage results with G&P index in there and they have the test they are looking for - correct?

http://nhc.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/publications/haematuria-t2.pdf

Thanks PT also. Will definately leave this with you and Miner to sort out.

[Crystal Ball]

Yes. Carparks in Invercargill cost $5. In the Auckland CBD they cost $50000 or more for prime parks. Buy up all the cheap Invercargill parks and freight them to Auckland to sell at a huge markup.

I trust this is of use.

Kind regards,
NBT
Ummmm, I think I recall reading PT was asking for " sensible ideas" .....I can t quite see the correlation here but maybe others can.

[Minerbarejet]

Yes. Carparks in Invercargill cost $5. In the Auckland CBD they cost $50000 or more for prime parks. Buy up all the cheap Invercargill parks and freight them to Auckland to sell at a huge markup.

I trust this is of use.

Kind regards,
NBTProbably not a lot, NBT.
Its the wrong way round.
Shift some Aucklanders to Invercargill instead.
Tim might be pleased to have company but he could be bluffing.:)

Still working on macro and micro, far out, its complicated!

[psychic]

Hey NG. Out on the road so don't have any data. But no stress - we have the best test. :) The (Breen ?) paper about to be released will evidence the advantages over UroVysion. Secondly , data from Triage or G&P won't be in there right? I'll rat out some more info when back.

[AndyLP]

What am I missing here? Table 11 in that document shows that CX bladder has neither the best sensitivity nor specificity? And, one test (UroVysion) has similar sensitivity to CX bladder but MUCH better specificity.

What do you all make of this?

Seems to depend on the source.
Firstly, it appears ImmunoCyt isn't FDA cleared for outright initial diagnosis.. only recurrence according to Blue Cross / Blue Sheild. (Not 100% but I don't think its CLIA approved either, like cxbladder.)

https://www.bcbsnc.com/assets/services/public/pdfs/medicalpolicy/urinary_tumor_markers_for_bladder_cancer.pdf (https://www.bcbsnc.com/assets/services/public/pdfs/medicalpolicy/urinary_tumor_markers_for_bladder_cancer.pdf)

That document also states a sensitivity / specificity of 74 and 80. Middle of the road stuff.
You'd think the nhc would dig up the numbers to put PEB in the best light! Ah well..

[Minerbarejet]

What am I missing here? Table 11 in that document shows that CX bladder has neither the best sensitivity nor specificity? And, one test (UroVysion) has similar sensitivity to CX bladder but MUCH better specificity.

What do you all make of this?Think those are overall indications and need to be taken together. i.e 82% at 85%
Try the PEB website clinical outcomes in cxbladder.com healthcare professionals for the basics.
I know Urovysion is not there which is why we await the Breen report with some interest.

[twotic]

What am I missing here? Table 11 in that document shows that CX bladder has neither the best sensitivity nor specificity? And, one test (UroVysion) has similar sensitivity to CX bladder but MUCH better specificity.

What do you all make of this?


Seems to depend on the source.
Firstly, it appears ImmunoCyt isn't FDA cleared for outright initial diagnosis.. only recurrence according to Blue Cross / Blue Sheild. (Not 100% but I don't think its CLIA approved either, like cxbladder.)

https://www.bcbsnc.com/assets/services/public/pdfs/medicalpolicy/urinary_tumor_markers_for_bladder_cancer.pdf (https://www.bcbsnc.com/assets/services/public/pdfs/medicalpolicy/urinary_tumor_markers_for_bladder_cancer.pdf)

That document also states a sensitivity / specificity of 74 and 80. Middle of the road stuff.
You'd think the nhc would dig up the numbers to put PEB in the best light! Ah well..

The test you are referring to though Andy is not the one NewGuy was asking about (or am I misreading you somehow?).

E.g. both documents show the same results for UroVysion. I.e. Sensitivity of 77% and Specificity of 98%. It seems the point still stands that on the face of it UroVysion appears a little better based on those numbers. That being said, sensitivity and specificity values trade off against one another. When one goes up the other goes down, so as Miner says both need to be looked at as a pair, not compared across tests individually - the later would be a big mistake. Eg NewGuy saying "CX bladder has neither the best sensitivity nor specificity" does not mean you can infer that CxBladder is not the best test.... There are various ways to look at both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously: area under the ROC curve is the one I like to use, but likelihood ratios (positive/negative) are also ofter used.

The other point is that the NHC report indicates the focus for further research should be on tests with high sensitivity (pg 30) so on that count CxBladder is preferable to UroVysion. Presumably that suggests a preference for tests which limit the number of negative test results for patients who in reality do actually have cancer.

[AndyLP]

The test you are referring to though Andy is not the one NewGuy was asking about (or am I misreading you somehow?).

E.g. both documents show the same results for UroVysion. I.e. Sensitivity of 77% and Specificity of 98%. It seems the point still stands that on the face of it UroVysion appears a little better based on those numbers. That being said, sensitivity and specificity values trade off against one another. When one goes up the other goes down, so as Miner says both need to be looked at as a pair, not compared across tests individually - the later would be a big mistake. Eg NewGuy saying "CX bladder has neither the best sensitivity nor specificity" does not mean you can infer that CxBladder is not the best test.... There are various ways to look at both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously: area under the ROC curve is the one I like to use, but likelihood ratios (positive/negative) are also ofter used.

The other point is that the NHC report indicates the focus for further research should be on tests with high sensitivity (pg 30) so on that count CxBladder is preferable to UroVysion. Presumably that suggests a preference for tests which limit the number of negative test results for patients who in reality do actually have cancer.


Quite right there twotic. I got distracted by the higher reported sensitivity of immunocyt because as you say that's what's immediately pertinent to patient health.

[twotic]

The point still remains, does it not, that CX bladder has neither the best sensitivity nor specificity, which I'm sure contradicts how others have portrayed it in this thread historically???

I can't speak for how things have been portrayed on here, what I can say is that anyone that would make comments such as that does not understand how specificity and sensitivity are calculated or what they mean. So on that count, no, IMO the point does not remain - you simply can't look at each of these numbers in isolation and compare across different tests.

Put it this way - I could create a test that guarantees 100% sensitivity - does that make it a good test? Perhaps, it would certainly make it the highest ranking of the different tests found in table 11 IF you were to rank them by sensitivity values alone. BUT, you actually don't have any idea how good my test is until you at least see what the specificity value is. All I could have done is create a test which always results in a positive result thereby producing 100% sensitivity. The downside is that my specificity value would be 0%.

Remembering of course that Sensitivity = the number of true positives/the number of sick individuals in the population (a true positive being a test which correctly indicates a positive result). And specificity = the number of true negatives/the number of well individuals in the population (a true negative being a test which correctly indicates a negative result).

Also remember that Pacific Edge purposefully fixes specificity at 85%. If they wanted to improve their specificity value they could always do so at the expense of sensitivity.

I hope there are no typos in my post, regardless I think you should get the idea.

[Tsuba]

How many times does this topic have to be debated? Time to feed the chooks.

[Minerbarejet]

How many times does this topic have to be debated? Time to feed the chooks.
I hope this isnt a sensitive matter but you were specific about chooks. Doesnt the guinea fowl get any?
Food that is.:)

[psychic]

Well, when new information is presented that challenges the conventional wisdom, a debate is warranted. FAR more interesting than many of the other sub-threads that play out here...

I agree NG. This is why we are here. Bit painful to try get a grip on some of this stuff at times but debate it and ask, we should.

Twotic has answered better than I could have ever done, and tbh I don't quite yet follow your logic in reply but I'll get back to that later.

Meantime -I guess you also need to consider the robustness of the various tests etc, degree of variability by observer, cost etc etc. But my original point was that the NHC is essentially screaming out for a primary care screener - ie CxBladder Triage first and foremost, with a Sensitivity in the high nineties and equally high negative predictive value.

[psychic]

Ok, so are you saying that the figures printed in that report are incorrect for CX?

No. Cxbladder detect at a set specificity of 85% has an overall sensitivity of 82% (But drill down and you will see that it's sensitivity on the important grades is 100%)
Cxbladder Triage has the higher overall sensitivity (lower specificity) and is the appropriate tool to test the market at the primary care level as it tells the Doc with a great deal of certainty that the patient does not have bladder cancer. This saves the Health Boards all those unnecessary full workups..

[Minerbarejet]

Maybe it might help if we consider that the cxbladder scenario is actually cxbladder detect which can be adjusted through additional input and algorithms to provide a higher sensitivity for a particular purpose such as Triage.
Presumably it can be adjusted in the same way for specificity as well which may be where the next two tests are coming from.
Perhaps it is this capability that is not shared by the other tests.
Havent heard anything about additional companion tests from the others, they could be out there but in what stage of development is anyones guess.

[Tsuba]

I hope this isnt a sensitive matter but you were specific about chooks. Doesnt the guinea fowl get any?
Food that is.:)

Like PEB Twink, the Guinea Fowl, is very sensitive and specific in a very balanced way about his food so he gets special treatment. Where as the chooks are greedy demanding animals that are never happy with what you feed them and always want more, a bit like impatient investors who want 10s of thousands of sales yesterday.

Here he is. He may relieve the tempest in peoples mind that the science of PEB creates.

https://youtu.be/Mr2DFbwb9SM


https://youtu.be/Mr2DFbwb9SM

[Dentie]

Like PEB Twink, the Guinea Fowl, is very sensitive and specific in a very balanced way about his food so he gets special treatment. Where as the chooks are greedy demanding animals that are never happy with what you feed them and always want more, a bit like impatient investors who want 10s of thousands of sales yesterday.

Here he is. He may relieve the tempest in peoples mind that the science of PEB creates.

https://youtu.be/Mr2DFbwb9SM


https://youtu.be/Mr2DFbwb9SM



ha ha ha.... thanks Tsuba! Whilst watching this, I imagined all those little bits of corn Twink was hoovering up were akin to PEB shares that had been thrown away....

[Minerbarejet]

ha ha ha.... thanks Tsuba! Whilst watching this, I imagined all those little bits of corn Twink was hoovering up were akin to PEB shares that had been thrown away....
I suspect fowl play.
Are you sure that Twink isnt just part of a coverup?



Sorry, slow day.

[Tsuba]

I suspect fowl play.
Are you sure that Twink isnt just part of a coverup?



Sorry, slow day.

Am struggling to answer that one. No cover ups with that bird. He is as real as this hedgehog......

https://youtu.be/6efsp2c3uqQ

Takes your mind off PEB for a few moments. You guys need a break.

[Dentie]

Am struggling to answer that one. No cover ups with that bird. He is as real as this hedgehog......

https://youtu.be/6efsp2c3uqQ

Takes your mind off PEB for a few moments. You guys need a break.

he he he.....Looks like Twinky is very wary of the hedgehog and Twinky also needs some table manners ... messy bu@@er!

Oh sorry, back to PEB....

[Minerbarejet]

he he he.....Looks like Twinky is very wary of the hedgehog and Twinky also needs some table manners ... messy bu@@er!

Oh sorry, back to PEB....
Watching that video I fully expected Harvey the Hedgehog to get a good peck in the earhole.

On a Pebnote, it seems there is a World Congress for Biotechs and Diagnostics in Philadelphia in early May.
Wonder if Pacific Edge is attending. It's just down the road.
It doesnt seem to be on their calendar of events.

[Minerbarejet]

The problem:

Report, page 15, paragraph 1:


What I take this to mean is using the setting for a test-negative rate of 0.4 for the macro-hematuria population, when we applied it to the [statistically small] micro-hematuria population we got a a test-negative rate of 0.8.

WHAT?


Report, page 15, paragraph 4:


The do not mention the specificity of 0.45 that goes with the 0.95 sensitivity and you need to carry that across as well. So I would expect a test-negative rate (triaged out) of about 45%, given no UC in the group.

This is a statistical dis-connect!
And they just say isn't it great.
No explanation!

Anybody got any sensible ideas?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Best I can come up with is that the second to last microhematuria in your quote P15 paragraph 4 should read macrohematuria. It would appear to make sense to me if that is done.

[skid]

In 2011 CMS reduced its reimbursement for Urovysion(at the time the only FDA cleared test for bladder cancer) by 50%,out of the blue.(under a new pricing code)
They apparently believed Abbott was taking advantage with their pricing.

Im still trying to figure out what if any ramifications this poses for PEB.

The article says it brings into the discussion molecular tests and the prices charged for them.

It also says this could open the market for other competitors,which seems like it could be a good thing for PEB,but Im not sure how the two tests compare price wise.(as its clear that the CMS will step in if it feels the price is to high--even for the leading test at the time)

Obviously Abbott has continued with the test,so maybe they over priced it and are still turning a profit.

This obviusly puts the horse before the cart in terms of CMS as it has'nt happened yet for PEB,but how competitive (in terms of price)does an even better test still have to be?

Thoughts?

(I realize this is rather old news and if it has been thoroughly hashed over already, please excuse)

http://labsoftnews.typepad.com/lab_soft_news/2010/12/cms-cuts-in-half-the-reimbursement-for-urovysion-test.html

[MAC]

A couple of weeks ago I posted a Genomic Health presentation, again here below,

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/GHDX/3667797570x0x683953/57935EC6-E76A-47F8-A583-D7E8FA24EA35/corporate_presentation.pdf

Genomic Health is generally seen as the business model to emulate in rolling out a high accuracy molecular diagnostic test assay, in their case primarily for breast cancer.

The breast cancer market is larger than the bladder cancer market at 234,000 cases per annum compared with 74,000 for bladder cancer. Thus, a market three times the size on that basis, although one can argue that more bladder cancer tests are performed on a per patient basis due to the very high recurrence rate of bladder cancer. And, of course in addition, Pacific Edge also have the haematuria screening market potential with Cxbladder(triage).

Genomic Health achieved Medicare coverage in 2006 for OncotypeDx, at which time their revenue jumped from $5.2M to $29M per annum within that year.

Some eight years later at FY14 their revenues were $276M, and they have recently advised a new goal of achieving $1B in revenues by 2020.

Genomic Health have achieved this by bringing to the market a diagnostic test which is better than the traditional methodologies that were previously used by clinicians, and, they have been able to break the glass ceiling to make their product a recognised mainstream form of care, rather than just an accessory.

So is this business model applicable to Pacific Edge and why don’t all diagnostic test companies achieve this level of growth ?

It seems to require a diagnostic product that ultimately can be demonstrated to have sufficient clinical utility which is capable of replacing the traditional status quo.

All the other diagnostic products in the bladder cancer space, other than Cxbladder(detect) fall short.

NMP22, Urovysion FISH, BTA and others are less accurate than the traditional methodologies, and thus will only ever be used as an adjunct, or as a supplementary test to cytology, with a firm capped glass ceiling on their market potential.

Cxbladder though, which is the only bladder cancer diagnostic test more accurate than cytology and which detects 100% of tumours of concern to Urologists, has the potential, just like OncotypeDX, to become a primary mainstream form of care.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

[skid]

They also have tests for colon=133,000 and prostate=221,000---total 585,000--its a much bigger market,but there may be other factors.
Not sure how competitive they are price wise,or how much the price factors in.

[skid]

Genomic Health also partners with leading companies developing oncology therapeutics to investigate and develop genomic-based testing to predict the likelihood of response to targeted therapeutics in various tumor types. The company focuses on increasing the value proposition of clinical treatment for patients through partnerships with pharmaceutical companies including sanofi-aventis, Bristol-Myers Squibb/ImClone Systems and Pfizer.

[psychic]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/262960

So the Triage study now published. You beaut, and congrats PEB.

Huge potential, not price sensitive apparently.

As this study crosses the desk of those that write the cheques for 80% of the worlds unecessasry initial workup cystoscopies; and comes to the attention of those poor sods that go through the trauma of that examination, I have to wonder at the likely effect on share price. Lets see..

[Mista_Trix]

$994k of shares were just traded off market - someone's a believer.

[blackcap]

$994k of shares were just traded off market - someone's a believer.

Or someone is a doubter :) In every trade there is a buyer but also a seller.

[Mista_Trix]

Or someone is a doubter :) In every trade there is a buyer but also a seller.

Too true, but I prefer my glass half full... albeit without rose tinted spectacles. :-S

[pierre]

Or someone is a doubter :) In every trade there is a buyer but also a seller.

Yep - glass either 51% full or 49% empty. Prefer the former option myself.

[Absolute144]

$994k of shares were just traded off market - someone's a believer.

Well hopefully that clears up the overhang and we get to see an appreciable rise in the share price prior to end of year announcements. Or maybe its still a bit early yet?

At le

[MAC]

The US launch is upon us, so what is it worth;

What do Edison Say ?

Back in September when they initiated coverage they had this to say;

“Our valuation of Pacific Edge is based on a DCF using free cash flow and a WACC of 12.5%. We incorporate Pacific Edge’s two lead products only into our valuation, forecasting peak sales of NZ$162m for Cxbladderdetect and NZ$23m for Cxbladdertriage by 2025. We see considerable scope for a re-rating of the shares as evidence of successful commercialisation emerges”

That NZ$23M (US$17M) in Cxbladder(triage) revenues at a US price point of US$600 equates to a peak potential of just 28,750 sales per annum in ten years from now.

Edison then are telling us that they expect Pacific Edge to have, in ten year’s time, a market share for Cxbladder(triage) of just;

= 28,750 / 2,000,000 = 1.4% market share in 2025, …. ,what total bollocks.

Just one of the reasons why Edison have such a low ball valuation for Pacific Edge at $1.16,

I think we may well soon see them revising their numbers quite dramatically for Cxbladder(triage), shortly after the US launch perhaps.

What About Kaiser Permanente ?

Pacific Edge tell us,

“If, as expected, Kaiser adopts commercially, the successful outcome will be viewed by the US healthcare community as a significant clinical endorsement”

Should KP fully adopt Cxbladder(triage) across all their facilities as a primary screening tool their contribution to market share would be;

= (9.1 / 318) x 2,000,000 = 57,000 test per annum, or 2.9% market share from 2015 onwards

What If Pacific Edge Achieved 10% Market Share ?

10% market share at a price point of US$600 would be worth;

= 10% x 2,000,000 = 200,000 tests per annum, or US$120M in annual revenues.

Add that to Cxbladder(detect) revenues, and there is all the potential in the world.

[skid]

I dont think you can count on PEB getting $600 for each test.

[psychic]

The US launch is upon us, so what is it worth;

What do Edison Say ?

Back in September when they initiated coverage they had this to say;

“Our valuation of Pacific Edge is based on a DCF using free cash flow and a WACC of 12.5%. We incorporate Pacific Edge’s two lead products only into our valuation, forecasting peak sales of NZ$162m for Cxbladderdetect and NZ$23m for Cxbladdertriage by 2025. We see considerable scope for a re-rating of the shares as evidence of successful commercialisation emerges”

That NZ$23M (US$17M) in Cxbladder(triage) revenues at a US price point of US$600 equates to a peak potential of just 28,750 sales per annum in ten years from now.

Edison then are telling us that they expect Pacific Edge to have, in ten year’s time, a market share for Cxbladder(triage) of just;

= 28,750 / 2,000,000 = 1.4% market share in 2025, …. ,what total bollocks.

Just one of the reasons why Edison have such a low ball valuation for Pacific Edge at $1.16,

I think we may well soon see them revising their numbers quite dramatically for Cxbladder(triage), shortly after the US launch perhaps.

What About Kaiser Permanente ?

Pacific Edge tell us,

“If, as expected, Kaiser adopts commercially, the successful outcome will be viewed by the US healthcare community as a significant clinical endorsement”

Should KP fully adopt Cxbladder(triage) across all their facilities as a primary screening tool their contribution to market share would be;

= (9.1 / 318) x 2,000,000 = 57,000 test per annum, or 2.9% market share from 2015 onwards

What If Pacific Edge Achieved 10% Market Share ?

10% market share at a price point of US$600 would be worth;

= 10% x 2,000,000 = 200,000 tests per annum, or US$120M in annual revenues.

Add that to Cxbladder(detect) revenues, and there is all the potential in the world.
Hi MAC, agree. Potential for Triage way understated, although Edison did say it's estimate of $23m was a conservative one "given the uncertainty of market acceptance for this yet-to-be launched test and some potential overlap of the customer base" The fact that they recognised a potential "overlap" suggests to me that they did not understand Triage particularly well. So I think it was just a nominal stab in the dark. Too many unknowns.

But the potential for Triage cannot be denied. It is, afterall, what the market is screaming out for. A Screening tool for those presenting with haematuria. It is a game changer, and the KP study is the springboard for this.

[Carpenterjoe]

A question to the brain trust,

Are there two separate user programmes for Kaiser? One for Detect and one for Triage,

Or have they been combined?

Do we think the results/contracts would be published/released? Or is this just business as usual, no need to release?

Just a little confused when this user programme is due to finish, early this year or September.

[MAC]

A question to the brain trust,

Are there two separate user programmes for Kaiser? One for Detect and one for Triage,

Or have they been combined?

Do we think the results/contracts would be published/released? Or is this just business as usual, no need to release?

Just a little confused when this user programme is due to finish, early this year or September.

Hi Carpenterjoe,

It’s a single 2,000 patient user programme for Cxbladder(triage) only, per page nine of the recent presentation,

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

Kaiser Permanente allocated staff late last year;

http://www.kp-scalresearch.org/Research/Scientist.aspx?eid=271

Pacific Edge have indicated that the user programme will complete this year, my feel is that it will probably be wrapped up and fully completed in the second half of the year, by which time all the results have been assessed, are ready for release, and a publication has been prepared and reviewed.

It may come with a concurrent KP sign up announcement too, so the schedule may be with KP, when they decide they are all good to go commercially.

For a significant clinical utility study like this we should anticipate that the outcomes should be published for the insurers to access, well, and for keen shareholders too.

kind regards, Mac

[Carpenterjoe]

Hi Carpenterjoe,

It’s a single 2,000 patient user programme for Cxbladder(triage) only, per page nine of the recent presentation,

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

Kaiser Permanente allocated staff late last year;

http://www.kp-scalresearch.org/Research/Scientist.aspx?eid=271

Pacific Edge have indicated that the user programme will complete this year, my feel is that it will probably be wrapped up and fully completed in the second half of the year, by which time all the results have been assessed, are ready for release, and a publication has been prepared and reviewed.

It may come with a concurrent KP sign up announcement too, so the schedule may be with KP, when they decide they are all good to go commercially.

For a significant clinical utility study like this we should anticipate that the outcomes should be published for the insurers to access, well, and for keen shareholders too.

kind regards, Mac

Thanks Mac,

Last years August announcement referred to CXbladder.
I assumed at the time they meant CXbladder Detect, I think that was the only product available to the Us market.

Reading back over it now, when Cxbladder technology is referred too, I automatically assume it's the whole Cxbladder arsenal.

All good, thanks mate

[psychic]

http://www.themercury.com.au/news/breaking-news/blood-in-the-urine-warning-by-urologists/story-fnj6ehgr-1227302224826

or, you could take the CxBladder triage test.....

[Minerbarejet]

or, you could take the CxBladder triage test.....
Presumably the beloved professor is now up to date on advances in cxbladder triage as this is the meeting highlighted on Pacific Edge's website under Calendar of Events. Do PEB actually attend these meetings because I see they are listed as healthcare exhibitions? If not, why not? If they do attend, loyal shareholders might be interested to know how it went.
Some word of mouth from cxbladder converted urologists at these bunfights would surely be spreading by now or are we still struggling with the almighty "dissonance" in Australia.

"Tear down this wall, Mr Darling."
(With apologies to Ronald Reagan):)

[skid]

This is the one you want to keep your eye on

https://www.auanet.org/education/aua-annual-meeting.cfm

http://www.aua2015.org/exhibitors/

[skid]

Hi Carpenterjoe,

It’s a single 2,000 patient user programme for Cxbladder(triage) only, per page nine of the recent presentation,

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

Kaiser Permanente allocated staff late last year;

http://www.kp-scalresearch.org/Research/Scientist.aspx?eid=271

Pacific Edge have indicated that the user programme will complete this year, my feel is that it will probably be wrapped up and fully completed in the second half of the year, by which time all the results have been assessed, are ready for release, and a publication has been prepared and reviewed.

It may come with a concurrent KP sign up announcement too, so the schedule may be with KP, when they decide they are all good to go commercially.

For a significant clinical utility study like this we should anticipate that the outcomes should be published for the insurers to access, well, and for keen shareholders too.

kind regards, Mac

The User Program research is scheduled to begin later this year with results
completed in early 2015.(from initial report)

Just curious why you say the second half of the year-Am I missing something?

[psychic]

Presumably the beloved professor is now up to date on advances in cxbladder triage as this is the meeting highlighted on Pacific Edge's website under Calendar of Events. Do PEB actually attend these meetings because I see they are listed as healthcare exhibitions? If not, why not? If they do attend, loyal shareholders might be interested to know how it went.
Some word of mouth from cxbladder converted urologists at these bunfights would surely be spreading by now or are we still struggling with the almighty "dissonance" in Australia.

"Tear down this wall, Mr Darling."
(With apologies to Ronald Reagan):)

Pity but looks as if you needed to submit and have approved any poster/ abstract presentation by Nov last year, so not possible to air the triage study I suppose.
But maybe the recent increased buying (yesterdays light trading excepted) came from those stopping by the PEB stand.?

[Minerbarejet]

Pity but looks as if you needed to submit and have approved any poster/ abstract presentation by Nov last year, so not possible to air the triage study I suppose.
But maybe the recent increased buying (yesterdays light trading excepted) came from those stopping by the PEB stand.?Ah well, there is always next year. Hope the prof has a handle on it by then.

[skid]

It appears that registration for exhibitors is still open for the American Urologist Ass. conference--Is there any way to find out if PEB is exhibiting? (much more ex poser)


PS--congrates on your CDY holding,Miner--(now thats the kind of thing that catches attention)

[Snow Leopard]

The User Program research is scheduled to begin later this year with results
completed in early 2015.(from initial report)

Just curious why you say the second half of the year-Am I missing something?

PEB are basically very poor at communicating to their shareholders - this is definitely a bad thing.
But at the same time you are not keeping up with the game here.

They issue an announcement that gives the reader a definite impression and then some time later another announcement which provides a different impression.

This is in addition to the bi-annual spot the error in the financial statements that they run.

Plus there is more that I am not even going to bring up.


Anyway the most recent version of the 'truth' from PEB: page 9, left hand side, third block down (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Successful commercialisation = bring to market

Making money (profit) is not part of the equation

The Darling definition

[Ginger_steps_]

It appears that registration for exhibitors is still open for the American Urologist Ass. conference--Is there any way to find out if PEB is exhibiting? (much more ex poser)


PS--congrates on your CDY holding,Miner--(now thats the kind of thing that catches attention) Why don't you email them and ask? It wouldn't be the first time a ST member has tipped them off on an important event!

[skid]

PEB are basically very poor at communicating to their shareholders - this is definitely a bad thing.
But at the same time you are not keeping up with the game here.

They issue an announcement that gives the reader a definite impression and then some time later another announcement which provides a different impression.

This is in addition to the bi-annual spot the error in the financial statements that they run.

Plus there is more that I am not even going to bring up.


Anyway the most recent version of the 'truth' from PEB: page 9, left hand side, third block down (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Your right -I guess Ive not been keeping up with the game:confused:--could some one help me out here?--six months from when?(news letter dated March 2015)

Is any one anticipating groundbreaking numbers in the next report that send the SP soaring?

Not saying it wont happen at some stage (if all goes well) but it still seems a bit early in the game to me(considering that some sort of catalyst is most likely needed.)

If Kaiser does come through,I guess its a matter of how much credit is given back to the ''potential'' scenario (as we of course wont know how it affects the numbers yet)

Im a bit surprised that no one has taken any notice of the fact that CMS cut its reimbursement for Urovysion by 50% as they thought it was to expensive (It was the only game in town at the time) which i suppose could be a debate for both camps (in terms of if that is good or bad news for other tests and their coverage)----the pros--it wont happen to new tests because there is no longer a monopoly ---the cons--If new test are also expensive (in the same ballpark)maybe they will get cuts as well or only get partial coverage.

[Minerbarejet]

Time is nearly up on this 400 patient evaluation for triage of microhaematuria presenters in NZ.
Interesting to note that Triage was launched in NZ in December well prior to the intended completion of this evaluation.
Also interesting is the launch of Triage in the US in JUNE this year.
A connection between the NZ evaluation results and the US Launch perhaps?
And you wonder why everything takes so long.:)



MidCentral DHB first in New Zealand to utilise CxbladderPosted on May 30th, 2013
NZX ANNOUNCEMENT: Released 30 May 2013
MidCentral District Health Board, based in Palmerston North, is set to become the first district health board in New Zealand to become a commercial customer for Pacific Edgeʼs diagnostic cancer test Cxbladder. MidCentral will be looking to provide patients with a better clinical outcome as well as make considerable savings and efficiencies from its use.
Beginning in June,(presumably 2013) MidCentral DHB will begin evaluating 400 patients over a 24-month period ( ending June 2015) to determine the clinical utility of Cxbladder to prioritise at-risk patients, and establish the level of savings that can be achieved from screening out patients who do not need a full and expensive urological work up for bladder cancer. Typically less than five percent of those patients who present to their clinician with micro-haematuria (non-visible blood in urine of clinical significance) will be diagnosed with bladder cancer.


Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David Darling says MidCentral DHBʼs goal is to triage patients early by utilising Cxbladder – a test that enables the detection of bladder cancer from a small volume of urine. Results from peer reviewed multi-centre clinical trials of 485 patients published in the prestigious Journal of Urology in the United States last year showed that Cxbladder outperformed all other benchmark technologies and identified nearly all tumours of interest to clinicians.
A full clinical work-up for bladder cancer is estimated to cost up to $2000. If conservatively, 80 percent of patients presenting with micro-haematuria can avoid the distress and inconvenience of a full bladder cancer evaluation, the cost savings for MidCentral DHB would be significant and would enable the more efficient use of DHB urological, clinical and pathology services.”

[skid]

I was beginning to wonder if anyone was still at home.

[psychic]

Agree Miner, exciting few months ahead.

1. We have MidCentral Health wrapping up it's evaluation

2. We have the March 2015 National Health Report on Hematuria and Diagnostic Options - screaming out for this.
http://nhc.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/publications/haematuria-t2.pdf

3.We have the Triage results recently published confirming it is the test for the job with both high sensitivity and negative predictive value.
http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12894-015-0018-5.pdf

4. We are told Triage can save US$1.1m per 1000 patients presenting with hematuria and save many from invasive cystoscopy.

So it's all go here, with a launch into the States either on the back of, or later support of the KP study

Stars aligning..

[MAC]

Pacific Edge just been busy getting on with Cxbladder(detect) business in the background Psychic.

We are due for a Cxbladder(triage) push and announcement anytime now I reckon also though, a bit of strategic anticipation in the market to capitalise on following the BMC publication etc.

Four weeks from FY15 reporting and an update, I’m looking for revenues of $3.8M (+280%).

Wouldn’t surprise me to see a bit more than that actually though, just a hunch on the ratio of second half sales to tests being kicked along now by the 12 regional sales staff doing what they do, we could see anywhere up to $5M at a stretch IMO.

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[Minerbarejet]

Pacific Edge just been busy getting on with Cxbladder(detect) business in the background Psychic.

We are due for a Cxbladder(triage) push and announcement anytime now I reckon also though, a bit of strategic anticipation in the market to capitalise on following the BMC publication etc.

Four weeks from FY15 reporting and an update, I’m looking for revenues of $3.8M (+280%).

Wouldn’t surprise me to see a bit more than that actually though, just a hunch on the ratio of second half sales to tests being kicked along now by the 12 regional sales staff doing what they do, we could see anywhere up to $5M at a stretch IMO.

7320
That last pillar has me intrigued. They say it is a grossed up estimate based on the current ( then) rate that has been affected by the instigation of the Affordable Care Act. Clear as mud and probably deliberately erring on the side of caution.
The company would do well to add a bit of how, why and when to these statements and not just leave them hanging about for us to make whatever we can of it.

[MAC]

If nothing else it shows that the product is being adopted well enough, albeit still at early stages, all helps the clinical utility portfolio for CMS too. It would be nice if they were a bit more specific than that below;

“Process underway with key customers Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) and Veterans Association with conclusion expected in 2015”

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

We know they are already being reimbursed by CMS under a general diagnostic CPT code anyway, but there are seven months left in the year, the conclusion and coverage could be at any time now.

Ahem, if the good folk at Pacific Edge happen to be reading this thread, something a little more specific in respect to schedule and progress would be appreciated by your shareholders.

[Xerof]

Well, it's gone from mid 2014 to early 2015, (for reasons explained at the time), but now it could in practice be as late as 31 December 2015.

MAC, how do know they are being reimbursed? The last I saw was it was being accrued, but not accounted for anywhere.

Clearly the trolls lambasting of every comment ever uttered has turned them right off saying anything. That's fine with me as long as they are following continuous disclosure rules

[MAC]

Hi Xerof,

For no other reason than that it has been part of the Pacific Edge plan to do so since it was first suggested as far back as at the 2011 capital raising, it’s not anything new really.

As I understand, all pre-coverage diagnostic companies can utilise a composite CMS CPT code to seek reimbursement on a case by case basis, and can also submit an appeal if reimbursement is not forthcoming. Some biotech companies have very elaborate procedures in place to appeal every case in an effort to demonstrate their respective clinical benefits.

CMS are under no obligation to make payment under said composite CPT code, and as I understand the re-imbursement can also be held pending a coverage decision.

We don’t know how many CMS tests are presently being reimbursed or how many are presently being held, that would be price sensitive as you suggest.

Trust that assists, the Pacific Edge website just says;

“Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder”

It’s a confident statement based on an expectation of ultimately receiving CMS coverage.

Exact Sciences recently received coverage for their molecular diagnostic test, Cologuard, per the decision memorandum below, it also took them around two years to demonstrate adequate clinical utility and adoption to CMS. Pacific Edge should also receive a similar decision memo any time now.

http://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/details/nca-proposed-decision-memo.aspx?NCAId=277

Edison’s advice was for this to occur late 2014 to early 2015, so it is due about now, however the Affordable Care Act being introduced in January could have delayed matters for a couple of months, who really knows.

Pacific Edge could do more to advise the share market that only CMS have control over how long it will take and that Pacific Edge can only speculate on the matter, as best they can, based on feedback received from CMS.

Perhaps that’s a part of general shareholder education, or perhaps it’s not Pacific Edge’s responsibility to educate shareholders who should already understand their own investments.

We should get some progress in four weeks time at FY reporting and during the FY conference call also, if coverage is not forthcoming by that time.

kind regards, Mac

[skid]

Hopefully CMS coverage will give a boost(when and if)--but your comparison with Genomic Health is clearly misleading for reasons already stated--(the most important of which is that Genomic is partnered with Bristal Myers Squib -Pfitzer-Imclone-and Sanoti Mentis to promote their products covering 3 different cancer tests.) It also had a faster growth before CMS coverage.
It will,however be interesting to see how the numbers pan out.

[Xerof]

MAC, a belated thanks for your comprehensive response

[Minerbarejet]

Hi xerof,
So where are we on your investor sentiment cycle diagram, must be past capitulation by now or are we still on the way down?
Cheers
Miner:)

[skid]

seems pretty range bound--IMO the market is valuing it pretty much where it is and adopting a ''wait and see'' approach until numbers or announcement comes along--I think potential for things to happen will keep it from drifting down but caution about why nothing is happening and lack of communication,will keep it from increasing to much--There could be fireworks one way or the other when report comes (or news)

[skid]

I know some of you are going to scream if you hear more about overseas markets and their influence but it would be foolish to totally disregard

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-more-weakness-in-store-ahead-of-claims-inflation-data-2015-04-30

http://money.cnn.com/data/us_markets/


Disc-watching my other biotek shares closely

[kiora]

I know some of you are going to scream if you hear more about overseas markets and their influence but it would be foolish to totally disregard

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-more-weakness-in-store-ahead-of-claims-inflation-data-2015-04-30

http://money.cnn.com/data/us_markets/


Disc-watching my other biotek shares closely

And Chinese markets setting themselves up for a rout from margin lending

[Xerof]

Hi xerof,
So where are we on your investor sentiment cycle diagram, must be past capitulation by now or are we still on the way down?
Cheers
Miner:) what do you reckon, somewhere between despondency and depression? I think we have passed through capitulation

[Minerbarejet]

what do you reckon, somewhere between despondency and depression? I think we have passed through capitulation Did you have melancholia on that chart, ennui perhaps, doldrums or even hibernation?

[Xerof]

Did you have melancholia on that chart, ennui perhaps, doldrums or even hibernation? I should have put the piccy up - here t'is. Yes, perhaps a 'doldrums' category can be added to the descriptors

7324

[Tsuba]

denial stage for sure

The fish are bitting Shnaps. Best you get out there.....

[Minerbarejet]

Aha, yes, thanks for that. I think you are right, its just gone around the corner or getting pretty close to it.

[MAC]

Would anyone happen to have a copy of this article by any chance ?

“The IVD market revenue is expected to reach $74.65 billion by 2020, from the market value of $53.32 billion in 2013”

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/in-vitro-diagnostics-ivd-market-to-jump-to-74-billion-by-forecast-2014-2020-big-market-research-499682731.html

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http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBsausages_zpse47af1cc.jpg.html?o=4

[skid]

The fish are bitting Shnaps. Best you get out there.....

Tsuba -the chooks must be fed and now we are onto fish--would it be fair to say your the outdoorsy type:):)

[Minerbarejet]

Would anyone happen to have a copy of this article by any chance ?

“The IVD market revenue is expected to reach $74.65 billion by 2020, from the market value of $53.32 billion in 2013”

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/in-vitro-diagnostics-ivd-market-to-jump-to-74-billion-by-forecast-2014-2020-big-market-research-499682731.html

7325

http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBsausages_zpse47af1cc.jpg.html?o=4Crikey, Mac, out of my league at those prices.

[skid]

Reminds me of the property Gurus that make more on their seminars than property

[NT001]

153 pages, Mmm, how much does that work out at per page?

[Tsuba]

Tsuba -the chooks must be fed and now we are onto fish--would it be fair to say your the outdoorsy type:):)

I do like being outside Skid just like Shnaps likes fishing. He should get out on the water more often instead tapping away on his computer. ;)

Or maybe he needs a Guinea Fowl in his life.

[skid]

Maybe he has an ''all weather'' computer

[Tsuba]

lol......Guinea fowl...... no thanks.


How about a cup of tea Shnaps ?

https://youtu.be/b6NkBpIYO1s

[Tsuba]

lol.........are they any good to eat....... maybe a bit like a pheasant.
The video reminds me of a day when we had been diving for scollaps (got about 200).........we had taken them out of the shells, put them in a bowl and left them on the outside table....came back 2 minutes later and the bloody peacocks had eaten the lot.

Don't plan to find out Snaps. But they are apparently very nice. Popular in France.

[MAC]

Looks like a final settlement on Actos has landed with the pharma Takeda agreeing to pay out.

A nice $2.4B, down from what could have been $9B, for 3900 individual claimants with bladder cancer, so thus $610k per patient each, cash in the hand.

Poor buggers though, money may or may not pay to fix what they have.

And then there are perhaps millions of Actos users out there in the world who haven’t presented with bladder cancer symptoms, as far as they may or may not be aware.

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-patients/patient-resoucres/actos-and-bladder-cancer/

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/takeda-agrees-to-24-billion-settlement-for-actos-bladder-cancer-lawsuits-300078757.html

[MAC]

There were literally thousands with diabetes in New Zealand alone prescribed with Actos medication;

http://www.3news.co.nz/world/nzers-invited-to-sue-over-diabetes-drug-2013051518#axzz3ZP32YGrA

If any of you may know anyone, or have a family member, it may be that your medical insurance may be willing to cover the cost of a screening Cxbladder test now that the connection with Actos has been both medically proven and litigated.

You could save a life, particularly if that person may also have other risk factors, be a smoker etc. The results will be sent to their GP in confidence.

[MAC]

And, now a trading halt ?

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/212611.pdf (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/212611.pdf)

“The Chief Execitive Officer for Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA, Jackie Walker, says:“Not only does this publication provide further evidence of the superior sensitivity of Cxbladder Detect in diagnosing bladder cancer compared other other non-invasive tests, but most importantly it is the first piece of comparative data that includes UroVysion FISH, a molecular test that is widely used by clinicians and physicians in the US. As we expected, Cxbladder Detect proved to be better at detecting bladder cancer than all the non-invasive tests currently being used in the US and provides an effective adjunt to cystoscopy, and this is what clinicians have been looking for”

[couta1]

wow 2 positive announcements in 1 day..........right on cue the hype factory starts up just before a revenue announcement.
Now come on Snaps this is good stuff and more boxes ticked and once again highlights the superiority of Pebs tests over the competition(More importantly a leading US test)

[Dentie]

wow 2 positive announcements in 1 day..........right on cue the hype factory starts up just before a revenue announcement.
Interesting, as we all know, when pressed in the last 12- 24 months about revenue growth and targets management have always said things alluding to they believe the sales curve is not very predictable but predict 100m in 5 years.
I now note in some of there more recent commentary they are saying sales revenue is tracking to managements expectations.
Can not have it both ways or if you do be careful you don't trip up on your own rhetoric

I agree Snapiti - I would have left these announcements until AFTER the sales revenue announcement....perhaps in June after the publication was in the open.

[Minerbarejet]

And the wheel is ticking?

[couta1]

I guess,any minute now, multiple pharmaceutical companies will be knocking down their door and jumping over each other with pockets bulging full of cash to secure this wonderful opportunity ......I wait with excitement.
Mean while the clock is turning.
Could happen but I doubt they would offer enough to reflect the true potential value of the companies products.Medical companies clocks run very slow, think of all the cures for various cancers found in the US over the last few years, how long before any of them get to market? use a 5-10 year timeframe and that would be pretty much on the money.

[Meister]

The market doesn't seem to like good announcements!

[skid]

Some must be scratching their heads over the SP action on a day with 2 announcements.

I guess that investors want to see numbers rather than words at this stage,but it seems like it would have just stayed around the same rather than the fall......???

[skid]

if they see potential and profitability you can be sure a take over offer will come.
If the 2 p's are there I think a TO with in 12-14 months can be expected.

And then there will be nothing for us to talk about...

[couta1]

The market doesn't seem to like good announcements!
Market down day following overseas markets so not about liking.

[skid]

Thats true Couts--Lately the whole market has been in a bit of a fowl mood (dont say it Tsuba)

Im starting to get an uneasy feeling --Ive sold all but GNE (waiting for an off market transfer-and one small biotek and I think that may be going--(Its not PEB. for those who think Im down ramping)--

Im thinkin cash ATM (markets dont go up forever)

[Carpenterjoe]

interesting day for PEB........2 positive announcements in the same day leading up to the sales results and the share price sells off 5.5%..........speaks volumes about what Mr markets is now expecting.

Come on mate, 120k worth of shares. Expect a little better from a Guru. I'd imagine its worth less than your fishing boat?

We know this company is facing headwinds, it will need too move goalposts, its learning as it goes. its called business. Some investors have the nuggets for it, others sit on the side lines.

Again, the importance of sensitivity, Peb is undoing the bad reputation of current products and yes its pebble by pebble stuff.

I'm thinking total revenue between 2.9-4.

I was a little disappointed I couldn't get any grease from the Cellmid quarterly.

But, the talk will be about Lab output, my gut is telling me divide the trading revenue by $500 and multiply by 3-5 to get total lab output.

Anyway, Tight Lines

[MAC]

“Laboratory throughput continues to track to the company’s expectations following an active direct sales and marketing program to clinicians and healthcare organisations”

It could be misinterpreted as being a little ostentatious when a company is not quite yet in a position to provide numerical guidance.

The reporting period ended five weeks ago though and David Darling will indeed have the sales figures on his desk.

And, the FY15 result will include the first six months of contribution from the sales team of 12 staff hired just last year, perhaps he has good and valid reason for expressing confidence.

Lab throughput is important to the company as it demonstrates to CMS and the private insurers also that Pacific Edge is accumulating adequate case files that demonstrate adoption. Either through user programmes or through studies like the Breen paper announce yesterday.

My view is that early sales are largely irrelevant as a measure of progress, it’s the commercialisation sequence that is important as a gauge in assessing progress toward the $100M revenue goal at FY19.

Having said that it would be satisfying for many shareholders I think to see a peg placed at the bottom of a revenue curve about now, but in recognising sales for molecular diagnostic companies come with coverage, and that will start with CMS soon.

Here’s my estimate based on the recent presentation to Australian investors;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209911.pdf

http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBFY15S_zpstntlsds2.jpg.html?sort=3&o=2

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[dagoldtoof]

Listened to Radio ZB talkback 12-5am, host was a Timb, one subject discussed was cancer detection(bladder)info coming from callers was ancient and misleading, no one mentioned CX bladder...subject is being discussed again tonight, this is free publicity targeting a older generation that listen to night talkback...Have sent a email to Pacific Edge indicating this is a good opportunity for this product...but my email might this might get lost in their office someone else might have a direct line to the big chiefs..

[skid]

That ''early sales are largely irrelevant'' may or may not be true,but it is not going to boost investor confidence.

If thats how it pans out it will hurt the SP or trade sideways for alot longer which may persuade investors to look elsewhere until this thing gets rolling (its just as easy to watch from the sidelines) The company will carry on and one can jump on board at any point.

Carpenter Joe does have a point about the low volume and the markets were at least in the black last night so today could be better for the SP.

But the point remains that alot think the markets in general are overvalued (from lack of other places to invest) which may require a correction or a long period of sideways action (for the rest of the year?) to bring things back in line.--this unfairly could affect even small Bioteks that are good.

Its become obvious what always having to look ahead for potential to bring results has put things in the doldrums.
Maybe we will get a surprise come sales figures,but if they are only where even the optimistic are predicting we may be talking about chickens and peacocks for awhile yet.

[MAC]

I rarely comment on what the SP will do over the short term, there are as many opinions and directions as there are short termers, and each is just noise really to a long term investor.

Sales for molecular biotech companies are a function of coverage, and, up until the hard yards have been done in demonstrating clinical validity with studies like the Breen paper, and in demonstrating reasons for adoption through user programmes, sales remain at a pre-coverage threshold, as we have seen over the last year or so.

That’s not an attribute of Pacific Edge, rather it’s an attribute of the US healthcare adoption process, and all biotech companies follow a similar path in that respect.

At this point in time, the company is pretty much just now completing that process and is on the cusp of initiating coverage with CMS, VA and onward and forward with the private insurers.

I would offer that the analyst estimates, which are a bit too conservative in my view at $1.30, represent a pre CMS coverage price target for the company.

That’s 86% up side from an SP of $0.70 today for those whom want it.

Sales come with coverage, and it may be that some will wait for that to occur, fair enough, some will research and buy the prospective business plan at a lower share price.

And, that business plan is pretty much done as far as achieving CMS coverage goes, we are just awaiting an announcement which could come at any day now.

COVERAGE DRIVES SALES (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBonco_zpsm37fdslx.jpg.html)

7335

[skid]

Fair enough--Each to his own(as you would say)--Its really a matter of how long investors are willing to wait to get that advantage of a lower share price--(i personally think that the heady days of a monumental leap in SP on announcements, like last year are not going to happen)--to much water under the bridge.
If its really good news ,of course it will increase,but whether its so big that you cant afford to be out ,remains to be seen.

Your dream may well come true in time,but I think its prudent to be aware that it could falter.--Lets hope a great product is enough.
In the meantime,Im unashamedly aware of what the SP does as I try to reduce risk as much as possible.

Looks like a better day for the SP today....I believe there is a pretty sturdy wall between the 70s and 60s

on a different topic there was an interesting article on a monumental treatment of injecting the polio virus into cancerous tumors which awakened the bodies immune system to fight and destroy it.
Apparently the cancer has a way of normally fooling the immune system that its not there.

Amazing what the immune system is actually capable of when it actually become ''aware'' of a problem.

[MAC]

Certainly as far as risk goes that’s mostly in the past now, clinical trial outcomes, laboratory registration, gross margin work up, only CMS remains as a significant risk milestone which IMO is just a matter of time now and is imminent, particularly in light of papers demonstrating the product as favourably as this;

“The Chief Execitive Officer for Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA, Jackie Walker, says:“Not only does this publication provide further evidence of the superior sensitivity of Cxbladder Detect in diagnosing bladder cancer compared other other non-invasive tests, but most importantly it is the first piece of comparative data that includes UroVysion FISH, a molecular test that is widely used by clinicians and physicians in the US. As we expected, Cxbladder Detect proved to be better at detecting bladder cancer than all the non-invasive tests currently being used in the US and provides an effective adjunt to cystoscopy, and this is what clinicians have been looking for”

Certainly most if not all investors would consider a biotech company pretty much fully de-risked when they achieve profitability.

Edison tell us that they expect next year’s revenues (FY16) to be $15.7M, my calculator tells me that those revenues will very probably make the company profitable.

Thus, profitability in around about 12 months from now, yes only 12 months away,

My analysis and base case DCF is that Pacific Edge will be valued at around the $2 mark when they become a profitable going concern, and I would not be surprised to see analysts further increase their price targets toward that point over the coming months.

I’m not qualified to say if the share market will take the company up rapidly like in 2013, but certainly at some point valuations will be recognised by the market, they always are.

[skid]

Might see you somewhere on the way to your $2--when you and the market get on the same page--best of Luck to all

[Whitebeard]

Not sure of the date on this http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/research/fact/detail.html?studyid=STU%20112012-018 (http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/research/fact/detail.html?studyid=STU%20112012-018) but good to see all the comparisons and the study sites.

[Minerbarejet]

Not sure of the date on this http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/research/fact/detail.html?studyid=STU%20112012-018 (http://www.utsouthwestern.edu/research/fact/detail.html?studyid=STU%20112012-018) but good to see all the comparisons and the study sites.
It has been going a year or so that particular study. It seems that these evaluations and studies take a lot of time as they have to get sufficient numbers agreeing to participate. In NZ, Midcentral DHB have an evaluation of cxbladder Triage that has taken two years, as planned, presumably ending on time in June 2015. Results awaited with interest.

Wonder what happened to the launch into Asia in April or was it delayed because they didnt have International Standard accreditation at the time.:confused:

[MAC]

And, here it is already, for some light reading and analysis over ones 10am flat white.

“A holistic comparative analysis of diagnostic tests for urothelial carcinoma: a study of Cxbladder Detect, Urovysion® FISH, NMP22® and cytologybased on imputation of multiple datasets”

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12874-015-0036-8.pdf

[jonu]

Just watching the bid spread this morning--interesting to see the remainder of a late 100k order at 73 from last night (11k) grew to 21k while still showing only one bidder. I think (happy to be corrected) it's only instos that get to do that sort of thing. Am I right?

[TimmyTP]

Just watching the bid spread this morning--interesting to see the remainder of a late 100k order at 73 from last night (11k) grew to 21k while still showing only one bidder. I think (happy to be corrected) it's only instos that get to do that sort of thing. Am I right?
No, that's not correct. In fact, when increasing quantity, it is common is to create a new order for the difference, rather than amending the quantity. This is because qty amendments to existing orders would cause loss of priority in the depth.

[jonu]

No, that's not correct. In fact, when increasing quantity, it is common is to create a new order for the difference, rather than amending the quantity. This is because qty amendments to existing orders would cause loss of priority in the depth.

I get that Tim. I have to create a new order if the first one has already partly traded, which also attracts a new base brokerage fee. But in that situation I think it shows as a second bidder. In this case it still only shows one bid

[MAC]

“All data analysed, pre- and post-imputation showed that Cxbladder Detect had higher SNR and outperformed all other comparator tests, including FISH”

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12874-015-0036-8.pdf

Why is the comparison to Uroysion(FISH) so important to Pacific Edge ?

Over the last few years Urovysion(FISH) has demonstrated that the adjunct market for bladder cancer diagnostic testing can be quite prospective.

The Urovysion price point is about the same as Cxbladder(detect) in the $550 to $600 range, and it is estimated that Urovysion(FISH) presently generates around US$120M in annual revenues.

The Pacific Edge goal is to be generating a humble NZ$100M in revenues in four year’s time from now.

Quite a humble and understated goal from Pacific Edge I’ve always held.

Especially when considering that Cxbladder(detect) not only is a superior test, it also has numerous more clinical applications than Urovysion(FISH) and all the others for that matter.

[psychic]

“All data analysed, pre- and post-imputation showed that Cxbladder Detect had higher SNR and outperformed all other comparator tests, including FISH”

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12874-015-0036-8.pdf

Why is the comparison to Uroysion(FISH) so important to Pacific Edge ?

Over the last few years Urovysion(FISH) has demonstrated that the adjunct market for bladder cancer diagnostic testing can be quite prospective.

The Urovysion price point is about the same as Cxbladder(detect) in the $550 to $600 range, and it is estimated that Urovysion(FISH) presently generates around US$120M in annual revenues.

The Pacific Edge goal is to be generating a humble NZ$100M in revenues in four year’s time from now.

Quite a humble and understated goal from Pacific Edge I’ve always held.

Especially when considering that Cxbladder(detect) not only is a superior test, it also has numerous more clinical applications than Urovysion(FISH) and all the others for that matter.
Great find MAC and congratulations PEB/ Authors.
It's all a bit mind boggling really. NMP22, FISH etc have made big bucks over the years for the likes of Abbotts etc, approved and adopted as adjuncts to cytology/ cystoscopy but really, the tests fall well short on performance compared to CxBladder Detect.
So what is the potential revenue for a test that offers much more?
To say nothing of the potential earnings of CxBladder Triage which is scheduled for US launch in June. And that test is just out there on it's own - potentially saving the Health System the cost of full work ups for 80% of those presenting with Hematuria.
Then there is the tiny market outside of the US to consider, Colorectal, Melanoma and Gastric tests, etc etc,

$100m - a walk in the park.

[MAC]

Great find MAC and congratulations PEB/ Authors.
It's all a bit mind boggling really. NMP22, FISH etc have made big bucks over the years for the likes of Abbotts etc, approved and adopted as adjuncts to cytology/ cystoscopy but really, the tests fall well short on performance compared to CxBladder Detect.
So what is the potential revenue for a test that offers much more?
To say nothing of the potential earnings of CxBladder Triage which is scheduled for US launch in June. And that test is just out there on it's own - potentially saving the Health System the cost of full work ups for 80% of those presenting with Hematuria.
Then there is the tiny market outside of the US to consider, Colorectal, Melanoma and Gastric tests, etc etc,

$100m - a walk in the park.

Absolutely, and the healthcare market may well be more adoptive than it was when Pacific Edge set that goal over two years ago now also, it just seems that every year the system is looking for better and less invasive options, Obamacare coming along also boosting this type of tech and pushing for the enormous cost savings it brings to the sector;

Genomic Health with their breast cancer diagnostic test OncotypeDX recently announced a new goal of achieving US$1B in revenues by FY20.

Exact Sciences with their colon cancer diagnostic test Cologuard just announced that they have, within there first quarter following Medicare coverage, achieved 11,000 sales in that first three month period. Analyst consensus forecasts for Exact Sciences are US$45M revenues for this year, US$162M next year.

Pacific Edge are tracking around 6 to 12 months or so behind Exact Sciences in the commercialisation sequence, and although bladder cancer is the fourth most common cancer, it does show the potential in the market for them I reckon.

[skid]

Now all they have to do is sell it

Ive already covered the big name pharma companys partnered with Genomic

Here is what Exact Sciences are doing to ''partner up'' and market their product

http://www.beseengetscreened.com/get-connected/partners (this is on top of having the best product and FDA approved)

Its time for PEB to go out and partner up, or market their product in a similar manner-..Now they have some data,its time to act--not just sit and wait for the system to come to them.

[MAC]

You've not quite fully got it skid,

Genomic Health and Exact Sciences both market their products to general practitioners, to GP's, there are probably a million of them in the US, who really knows, and thus both companies require a distributing partner and a larger sales force just to work that sheer volume of contacts.

Cxbladder(detect) is marketed to specialist urologists, there are only 11,500 of them in the US, and an in-house sales force of only 20 is adequate for that market, particularly when they clump together in large urology groups of 100 or so. An entirely adequate plan by Pacific Edge for Cxbladder(detect) and the net margins will be much higher because of than.

For Cxbladder(triage) though I agree, I see that market as being very similar to Cologuard, and Pacific Edge may well respond with a distributing partner for that within the next year or so I suspect.

When the GP says you are now 40 and are due for a Colonoscopy, many like myself having experienced one, would say 'no thanks' I'll have a Cologuard test though, and it's a third of the cost for the insurer.

Cxbladder(triage) makes a similar prospect available for bladder cancer.

The GP may say, you are now 40 and, I see you have been a heavy smoker, or have been an ACTOS user, or have had blood in your urine in the past, you should have a Cystoscopy or a Cxbladder(triage) test, also for about one third the cost to the insurer.

[skid]

Everyone starts out at the GP --so your saying PEB is not marketing to the first link in the chain--whats to keep the doc from sending you for the only test he is aware of,even if its not as good.

Unless Im mistaken ,this is a screening test to rule out cancer--a first step to avoid costly follow ups?

so basically PEB has decided to market(if thats the right word) completely differently than these other companys that you have decided to compare to--(the succesful ones)

[Crystal Ball]

Everyone starts out at the GP --so your saying PEB is not marketing to the first link in the chain--whats to keep the doc from sending you for the only test he is aware of,even if its not as good.

Unless Im mistaken ,this is a screening test to rule out cancer--a first step to avoid costly follow ups?

so basically PEB has decided to market(if thats the right word) completely differently than these other companys that you have decided to compare to--(the succesful ones)
Must be about time for Snapiti to come in pour cold water on things, he s been quiet lately...

[MAC]

Yes, in fact they have gone one better, in offering what will be ultimately, by the end of next year, a total of four separate Cxbladder test products with four quite distinct markets.

Two products probably to be marketed to specialist urologists, and two products probably better marketed directly to GP's.

The advantage to Pacific Edge is that they can offer very high clinical test results with four separate products, rather than just a general single test which would cover all markets only adequately.

There's all the potential in the world,

Athough, we should not expect Pacific Edge to appoint a partner, if they are going too, until after the KP study is released and they announce the launch of Cxbladder(triage) in the US sometime soon.

[skid]

My suggestion was a possible way PEB could improve, CB, to be more in line with these successful companys that Mac has brought up.

Maybe they wont need to--but if things dont take off ,you may wish they had taken a more active approach to their marketing.

[MAC]

And there is Medicare to consider also;

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12874-015-0036-8.pdf

CMS will have been waiting for the completion of this study, and we may very well anticipate a CMS coverage decision anytime now, CMS will have received an advance copy from Pacific Edge.

“Pacific Edge CEO, David Darling says: “This publication will add a key piece of ammunition to Pacific Edge’s clinical dossier, supporting our case to secure a positive local coverage determination (LCD) for reimbursement by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) as well as other commercial payers”

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/212611.pdf

Coverage drives sales.

[skid]

Yes, in fact they have gone one better, in offering what will be ultimately, by the end of next year, a total of four separate Cxbladder test products with four quite distinct markets.

Two products probably to be marketed to specialist urologists, and two products probably better marketed directly to GP's.

The advantage to Pacific Edge is that they can offer very high clinical test results with four separate products, rather than just a general single test which would cover all markets only adequately.

There's all the potential in the world,

Athough, we should not expect Pacific Edge to appoint a partner, if they are going too, until after the KP study is released and they announce the launch of Cxbladder(triage) in the US sometime soon.

So they have these great products--we know that--Its how best to bring them to the world--In short ..to USE that potential and make it work financially---Thats what everyone wants ...right? Your comparisons have shown more about the marketing differences than the similarities. Isnt it time to get those products out there where they start saving more lives?

[psychic]

And there is Medicare to consider also;

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12874-015-0036-8.pdf

CMS will have been waiting for the completion of this study, and we may very well anticipate a CMS coverage decision anytime now, CMS will have received an advance copy from Pacific Edge.

“Pacific Edge CEO, David Darling says: “This publication will add a key piece of ammunition to Pacific Edge’s clinical dossier, supporting our case to secure a positive local coverage determination (LCD) for reimbursement by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) as well as other commercial payers”

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/212611.pdf

Coverage drives sales.

Yup, validating first, changing clinical practice, sales follow.

[Ginger_steps_]

I tend to agree with skid, although I'm not as knowledgable as many of the posters here. I believe CxBladder detect should be marketed to LUG's while Triage should be marketed to GP's. However I can't begin to fathom the implications this has for PEB in terms of typical partner distribution contracts, costs etc.

Also, has anyone done a comprehensive test cost analysis of detect vs NMP22, FISH and Cytology? If so, sorry I missed and could you please point me toward it?

[MAC]

Yup, validating first, changing clinical practice, sales follow.

7343

COVERAGE DRIVES SALES (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBonco_zpsm37fdslx.jpg.html?o=0) __________________

[skid]

7343

COVERAGE DRIVES SALES (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBonco_zpsm37fdslx.jpg.html?o=0) __________________


Well...Coverage obviously was not enough for Genomics and Exact Sciences was it...If your going to make a comparison then it helps to know the whole story--(I wont repeat the additional measures each took)

[skid]

I tend to agree with skid, although I'm not as knowledgable as many of the posters here. I believe CxBladder detect should be marketed to LUG's while Triage should be marketed to GP's. However I can't begin to fathom the implications this has for PEB in terms of typical partner distribution contracts, costs etc.

Also, has anyone done a comprehensive test cost analysis of detect vs NMP22, FISH and Cytology? If so, sorry I missed and could you please point me toward it?

Thats a good question GS--Perhaps Mac or Hancocks would know that. (Cytology is more expensive)

I do know that FISH (Urovyson)got knocked back 50% on their coverage .(they were the only game in town at the time and perhaps were considered to expensive due to the fact that they were a monopoly?) Im not sure how their price stacked up to the $600? for CX.

http://labsoftnews.typepad.com/lab_soft_news/2010/12/cms-cuts-in-half-the-reimbursement-for-urovysion-test.html

[NT001]

I reckon PEB should put out some bad news instead of good. Every time they put out good news the SP goes down. Who says the market is always right?

[Ginger_steps_]

Thanks fellas - I value all of your input!

[Minerbarejet]

I reckon PEB should put out some bad news instead of good. Every time they put out good news the SP goes down. Who says the market is always right?
Brilliant. Wish I had thought of that. Shall we send them an email.
Dear Mr Darling,
Could you please refrain from releasing any more good news unless required by the code of conduct for the bourse.
It seems that due to its geographical location the said bourse seems to get everything upside down.
If you require guidance in the dark art of finding problems where none exist for distribution to the masses as bad news then continuous consultation with the PEB thread on Sharetrader should prove to be a valuable source of ideas and information
Yours sincerely
Lou Swires :)

[skid]

The real test cost analysis is presently being undertaken by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) that analysis will be about the cost savings identified by having clinicians use the CxBladder test. They will weigh it up against the various combinations of existing tests.

I personally consider a sign up from either of these two organisations as the next momentous announcements and validation of CxBladder and, something worth celebrating, obviously CMS (100 Million people) more so than VA (9 Million people). CxBladder is presently covered for ~130,000,000 Americans by these providers; MultiPlan, FedMed, ACPN & Stratose.

The CMS reimbursement for the Abbott Molecular – UroVysion (FISH) Procedure Code 88120 test varies from state to state and for the 2015 Code Map the range of figures are:

ALABAMA – Entire State

Medicare Reimbursement Amount: Global Fee $556.66

CALIFORNIA NORTH – San Francisco

Medicare Reimbursement Amount: Global Fee $850.42

Thats interesting--I know the link news was rather old but cant quite make out what they were on about --Maybe it has all changed? $850 for California seems pretty high (surely that could not be only 50% of cost) which leads to the question of what is the cost (by Abbott)

I still think its worth marketing even with cms sign up (as other tests are signed up too (urovyson etc) but thats just me--I think about the importance of marketing maybe more than some(whether its justified or not) It was certainly the case with Genomics and Exact sciences(which was what was being discussed) thanx for the input

It would still be good to have a cost comparison of the tests--(seems harder to find than I thought it would be)

[MAC]

The real test cost analysis is presently being undertaken by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) that analysis will be about the cost savings identified by having clinicians use the CxBladder test. They will weigh it up against the various combinations of existing tests.

I personally consider a sign up from either of these two organisations as the next momentous announcements and validation of CxBladder and, something worth celebrating, obviously CMS (100 Million people) more so than VA (9 Million people). CxBladder is presently covered for ~130,000,000 Americans by these providers; MultiPlan, FedMed, ACPN & Stratose.

The CMS reimbursement for the Abbott Molecular – UroVysion (FISH) Procedure Code 88120 test varies from state to state and for the 2015 Code Map the range of figures are:

ALABAMA – Entire State

Medicare Reimbursement Amount: Global Fee $556.66

CALIFORNIA NORTH – San Francisco

Medicare Reimbursement Amount: Global Fee $850.42

And of course Hancocks those are Medicare re-imbursement rates, one also needs to add the co-pay to get revenues received, depending if they are on a Type B plan or an Advantage Plan, thus for Urovyson(FISH),

US$566 Medicare reimbursed may become around US$660 revenues received
US$850 Medicare reimbursed may become around US$1,000 revenues received

All in keeping with the recent Exact Sciences price point also for Cologuard at US$599 per test.

It is quite possible that the Cxbladder(detect) price point will exceed Urovyson(FISH) given both its superior performance in terms of sensitivity, but also because it has a much greater range of applications which are presently not provided by any other molecular diagnostic test.

CMS announcement due anytime now, tick, tock

[skid]

The real test cost analysis is presently being undertaken by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) that analysis will be about the cost savings identified by having clinicians use the CxBladder test. They will weigh it up against the various combinations of existing tests.

I personally consider a sign up from either of these two organisations as the next momentous announcements and validation of CxBladder and, something worth celebrating, obviously CMS (100 Million people) more so than VA (9 Million people). CxBladder is presently covered for ~130,000,000 Americans by these providers; MultiPlan, FedMed, ACPN & Stratose.

The CMS reimbursement for the Abbott Molecular – UroVysion (FISH) Procedure Code 88120 test varies from state to state and for the 2015 Code Map the range of figures are:

ALABAMA – Entire State

Medicare Reimbursement Amount: Global Fee $556.66

CALIFORNIA NORTH – San Francisco

Medicare Reimbursement Amount: Global Fee $850.42


With CX already covered for 130 million Americans(multiplan-Fed med ACPN Stratose) lets see what kind of numbers we get in the next report.

[Minerbarejet]

With CX already covered for 130 million Americans(multiplan-Fed med ACPN Stratose) lets see what kind of numbers we get in the next report.
Wouldn't bank on Multiplan being a big contributor to revenues just yet. With the 7 month lag exhibited by the takeup of Fed Med then Multiplan, if comparable, would only have a couple of startup months to add to the FY15 bottom line.
However, a reasonably healthy result, ie: anything around or above Edison, would indicate perhaps that the signups prior to Multiplan are going along ok and Multiplan would most likely follow suit.

[Absolute144]

FYI - note sure if it has been posted here or not yet.

www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=14327 (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=14327)

[Dentie]

FYI - note sure if it has been posted here or not yet.

www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=14327 (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=14327)

Gee thanks Absolute144...great!!

[barleeni]

FYI - note sure if it has been posted here or not yet.

www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=14327 (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=14327)

I'd be happy to sell mine to them for $1.00......... that should be a bargain in their books and im sure at such a hefty discount they will take me up on my offer?

[skid]

Well,that will certainly give posters something to talk about--Edison forgot to say how long before that 5 yr goal of $100,000,000 will be reached

they have a closing net cash of $233,000 at the end of the 5 yrs--Am I missing something? --(better leave that to the accountants here)

[Minerbarejet]

Another top notch piece of work from Edison giving a clear path to the way ahead. The precise summary of upcoming events to the nearest year should provide a sound basis for the average punter to make accurate assessments.
~NaCl

[skid]

I admire your diplomacy--Provided they are right --are you happy with those numbers? And the fact that we will be waiting till maybe 2016 for kaiser(tic tok) and the fact that there will most likely be some bargaining down on the price, if all goes to plan?

Its pretty comprehensive alright--What baffles me most is the fact they are valuing it 60%+ higher SP-(let alone 300%+-($2)-From those numbers they certainly dont seem ''on track'' to reach their goal of $100,00,000 any where near 5-6yrs---But like I said ,Im no accountant.

At the very least its looking like that monumental leap forward from CMS coverage is on hold for another 6-8mos. (2016?)

IMO-That pretty much narrows it down to the really long termers who not only have faith that at some stage the company will hit an ''exponential'' stage (beyond Edisons horizon) and that in the meantime the markets in general will carry on their merry way (unless you dont believe a crash or big correction will affect things)

[Minerbarejet]

Thank you. Sarcasm comes in various forms.
The report is a truckload of elderly shoe repairers.

[skid]

Another top notch piece of work from Edison giving a clear path to the way ahead. The precise summary of upcoming events to the nearest year should provide a sound basis for the average punter to make accurate assessments.
~NaCl

sorry--missed the sarcasm--apologies (one of the problems with the printed word):)

[Ginger_steps_]

~NaCl
cracked me up!

[Minerbarejet]

Dear oh dear Miner that's a tough call, even I didn’t pick up on the sarcasm; But, if you are not part of the ‘’behind the scenes’ Private Message group how would you know?

Big question I suppose is, why is there a behind the scenes PM group on this thread??
The headline says it all.
User programs under way.
Seems a tad late, user programs have been going for quite some time according to PEB.
Also the collection of timelines for various items seems pretty vague to me.
But what would I know, Im just an innocent bystander.
Perhaps a load of old cobblers was a bit strong, can we settle for rehash of mainly old news and a bunch of forward looking statements.

Which particular behind the scenes group are you referring to.:)
After all the shenanigans on this thread there are probably several.
In fact come to think of it maybe thats where we might find a lot of investors that no longer post.
Cheers
Miner

[MAC]

Hope that wasn’t the last post Miner, but yes many just can’t be bothered with trolls and cynical opportunists, life’s short.

I don’t think Edison have any more information on timing than the rest of us do, shows in the way they annualise their projections, full year reporting week after next should update us all though, presentation and full year conference call, all that good stuff.

[Minerbarejet]

Hope that wasn’t the last post Miner, but yes many just can’t be bothered with trolls and cynical opportunists, life’s short.

I don’t think Edison have any more information on timing than the rest of us do, shows in the way they annualise their projections, full year reporting week after next should update us all though, presentation and full year conference call, all that good stuff.
Think that Edison report is a bit like how it is around our house.
Any audible or visible opinions expressed are not necessarily those of management.:)

[skid]

Well ,first Edison is put up on a pedestal as the end all ,in professional advice-(working closely with PEB)-now they have put out an incredibly comprehensive report and suddenly they are not so great.
Ive never been a die hard follower of them as much as some have but I was surprised at the details of the report--Are all those numbers just estimates or guesses?

PS-when you start hearing words like ''cynical opportunists'',you know some feathers have been ruffled:):) Nacl--(thanx for the heads up NG-it certainly did go over the heads of some of us) Miner-you may have introduced a new term on this thread! Doubt if we have seen the last of it:)

[skid]

Does any one else think its an odd thing to do? To put out a statement that is far more detailed than what we get from the company itself just weeks before the official report is due.
I know PEB is paying them to do a prediction but it seems a bit cosy to be privy to that amount of info if thats the case.
Makes it a bit hard if PEB reports the same or similar earnings and simply says ''we are on track'' after someone else has given a detailed projection of what that means.
If they (PEB)have a different story,lets hope they provide some details --investors need something to go on.

[Minerbarejet]

Does any one else think its an odd thing to do? To put out a statement that is far more detailed than what we get from the company itself just weeks before the official report is due.
I know PEB is paying them to do a prediction but it seems a bit cosy to be privy to that amount of info if thats the case.
Makes it a bit hard if PEB reports the same or similar earnings and simply says ''we are on track'' after someone else has given a detailed projection of what that means.
If they (PEB)have a different story,lets hope they provide some details --investors need something to go on.
Yes, skid, when the PEB report comes out and if there is a marked difference you will be able to compare the two at which point you could decide which particular line of reasoning and information you wish to follow.
If any.:)

[skid]

Yes, skid, when the PEB report comes out and if there is a marked difference you will be able to compare the two at which point you could decide which particular line of reasoning and information you wish to follow.
If any.:)

As long as they provide good details--

(edisons number to compare to is 3,422 mil revenue before expenses)---just over a week to report..

[Minerbarejet]

As long as they provide good details--

(edisons number to compare to is 3,422 mil revenue before expenses)---just over a week to report..
I really cant see it being that high but you never know.:)

[Harvey Specter]

I really cant see it being that high but you never know.:)That number still isn't in the 10's of thousands of test. ;)

[Minerbarejet]

That number still isn't in the 10's of thousands of test. ;)
Three thousand, four hundred and twenty two million ( as stated) would be for sure.:)

[MAC]

That number still isn't in the 10's of thousands of test.

Oh I don’t know Harvey,

3,500 tests as US sales, another 3,000 for the three large US user programmes presently underway, 500 odd for OZ and NZ sales, 1,000 for the two completed studies and the others in progress, another 2,000 for mini and LUG user programmes, and bingo.

Gee, that would have Balance pinging off the padded walls of whatever happy place he checked himself into.

:)

[Harvey Specter]

Oh I don’t know Harvey, Paying tests! The rest is just marketing costs.the rubber hits the road when people are willing to pay for it.

Disc: Hold

[MAC]

Paying tests! The rest is just marketing costs.the rubber hits the road when people are willing to pay for it.

Disc: Hold

Yep absolutely, you know when I first read that ODT article I initially thought they were referring to sales also, well, if they ever even said what they said.

A bit of research later put me more in tune with the process they were following. It wasn't ever about sales at that time it was about test volumes. Many did miss that point though.

Although there is no fixed threshold, around about 10,000 patient case files seems to be the number required by CMS to demonstrate clinical utility and the Pacific Edge nominated adoption propositions, prior to CMS providing coverage.

And, that's around about where Pacific Edge are presently at, on the cusp of having that database completed, in hand, and a pending coverage decision is due anytime now.

Sales come with coverage, as per other molecular diagnostic companies, until this point everything has been about building the adoption case file, sales have been largely irrelevant really up to this point.

Patience Harvey, soon now.

[skid]

Three thousand, four hundred and twenty two million ( as stated) would be for sure.:)

Whoops! (got me on that one) guess you can see why I didnt become an accountant:(

3,422,000 is the number we are looking to compare to (thats about 3.4 out of the 100(mil) goal--- we are in the 3rd year

[skid]

Yep absolutely, you know when I first read that ODT article I initially thought they were referring to sales also, well, if they ever even said what they said.

A bit of research later put me more in tune with the process they were following. It wasn't ever about sales at that time it was about test volumes. Many did miss that point though.

Although there is no fixed threshold, around about 10,000 patient case files seems to be the number required by CMS to demonstrate clinical utility and the Pacific Edge nominated adoption propositions, prior to CMS providing coverage.

And, that's around about where Pacific Edge are presently at, on the cusp of having that database completed, in hand, and a pending coverage decision is due anytime now.

Sales come with coverage, as per other molecular diagnostic companies, until this point everything has been about building the adoption case file, sales have been largely irrelevant really up to this point.

Patience Harvey, soon now.

Anytime now?---Edison is certainly not in agreement with you on that --Edison clearly states coverage decision is still a fair way off.

[Minerbarejet]

Anytime now?---Edison is certainly not in agreement with you on that --Edison clearly states coverage decision is still a fair way off.
Wonder if PEB will play their same trick from last year and put the score up a couple of days early.:eek2:

[skid]

The interesting part is with an outfit the size of Edison,how they went about getting the research info to make that rather detailed projection. And how much is projection--the part about when Kaiser comes about (approx) may have simply been gotten from PEB--Revenue and SP prediction would surely have to be just that (but of course we dont know just how closely they communicate in order to make those projections)

It will be interesting to see just what exactly the ''score'' means --will it just be revenue--will they get into the kaiser timeline?

Guess we'll see how this whole interplay with Edison plays out soon enough..

[Minerbarejet]

Good exposure on CNN Money this morning.


https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/PH11680.htm&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTNTM4NTY3NDI5Nzk3MzQ5ODk3NjIcZjVkNzEzNDR mZmYwZDI1Mjpjby5uejplbjpOWg&usg=AFQjCNFPFhDlACF7v32g04CI5VMkQuSLFQ

[MAC]

Good exposure on CNN Money this morning.

https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/PH11680.htm&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTNTM4NTY3NDI5Nzk3MzQ5ODk3NjIcZjVkNzEzNDR mZmYwZDI1Mjpjby5uejplbjpOWg&usg=AFQjCNFPFhDlACF7v32g04CI5VMkQuSLFQ

A fair and positive summary Miner for an interested insurance bod getting his morning CNN.

Interesting to see that they have appointed a US a media promotions company.

http://www.kureczka-martin.com/what_we_do.htm

The US launch of Cxbladder(triage) is soon, although this bit is a notable random point of interest also;

“We help private companies prepare to go public or be acquired”

[Minerbarejet]

A fair and positive summary Miner for an interested insurance bod getting his morning CNN.

Interesting to see that they have appointed a US a media promotions company.

http://www.kureczka-martin.com/what_we_do.htm

The US launch of Cxbladder(triage) is soon, although this bit is a notable random point of interest also;

“We help private companies prepare to go public or be acquired”
The whole PEB scene is becoming more and more interesting by the day, MAC.
Think they may have changed their media handlers in the US.
Wasnt there some outfit in Austin, Texas doing that initially?

[skid]

Good exposure on CNN Money this morning.


https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/PH11680.htm&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTNTM4NTY3NDI5Nzk3MzQ5ODk3NjIcZjVkNzEzNDR mZmYwZDI1Mjpjby5uejplbjpOWg&usg=AFQjCNFPFhDlACF7v32g04CI5VMkQuSLFQ

How did you find that miner?--Its on CNN Money but when I went to their site i couldnt find it:confused:

Hiring pr firms is a step in the right direction though,if people see it

[Minerbarejet]

How did you find that miner?--Its on CNN Money but when I went to their site i couldnt find it:confused:

Hiring pr firms is a step in the right direction though,if people see it
Its called Google Alerts, skid. Set up an Alert for Pacific Edge Diagnostics as the Keywords and you will get an Alert in your Email.


Click on the link in my post and it should take you straight to the article.

[Minerbarejet]

The whole PEB scene is becoming more and more interesting by the day, MAC.
Think they may have changed their media handlers in the US.
Wasnt there some outfit in Austin, Texas doing that initially?
Sorry, crossed with Hancocks post.

[skid]

Its called Google Alerts, skid. Set up an Alert for Pacific Edge Diagnostics as the Keywords and you will get an Alert in your Email.


Click on the link in my post and it should take you straight to the article.

Thats great if you already know about PEB---but try finding it on the CNN MONEY site

Its preaching to the converted---but hopefully their new firm will be better than the old one in Austin

Its good that they have changed

[MAC]

Yeah, a bit unusual for Pacific Edge to spread the word en mass on the internet like that, maybe they haven’t had to up until now with Cxbladder(detect) marketed to urologists.

It might be they are starting to prep the market for Cxbladder(triage), of course what we don’t see is all the direct marketing effort in the background.

“Laboratory throughput continues to track to the company’s expectations following an active direct sales and marketing program to clinicians and healthcare organisations. Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA has 12 dedicated sales executives operating in key geographic regions”.

Ah well, we shall see next week if that newly established sales tem have made a start, shouldn’t expect a lot of sales pre-medicare coverage, bit I think we will see a bit more than what analysts are looking for, $3.3M.

[Minerbarejet]

A quote from a Kureczka / Martin Associates satisfied customer.
“K/MA is great at distilling complex science into concise, easy-to-understand language that clearly describes the company’s strategic focus, direction and expectations.”

Really?
Not going too well with PEB so far.

From their Contact Us page
We are headquartered in the San Francisco Bay Area, the birthplace of the biotechnology industry. If you would like to contact us, we would be happy to discuss your corporate communications and investor relations needs in greater depth.

Better get discussing, yesterday would be good.
NaCl

[Minerbarejet]

Sorry, skid, leading you astray there on Austin. Apparently this "new" one has been going for sometime. Like Mac I hadn"t seen it before. Learn something every day.

CNN is odd isnt it. Must be archived or behind a paywall.
Better hang onto that link if you want to see it again.:)

[Harvey Specter]

Thats great if you already know about PEB---but try finding it on the CNN MONEY siteI wouldn't really call this coverage by CNN Money - it is just buried in the press release section. Looks good to link too though.

[nextbigthing]

David Darling is today proud to announce PEB has achieved its target of $100m in revenues. 'Today is a great milestone for PEB, from the number of free trial kits we're giving away, if we could bill those customers $1000 per test then we've theoretically reached our goal of $100m revenue. Some were starting to doubt us, but we've always reaffirmed that $100m goal. Today we theoretically achieved it'. When pressed for actual revenue, scientist Darling commented that that was irrelevant in today's business world.

[Minerbarejet]

David Darling is today proud to announce PEB has achieved its target of $100m in revenues. 'Today is a great milestone for PEB, from the number of free trial kits we're giving away, if we could bill those customers $1000 per test then we've theoretically reached our goal of $100m revenue. Some were starting to doubt us, but we've always reaffirmed that $100m goal. Today we theoretically achieved it'. When pressed for actual revenue, scientist Darling commented that that was irrelevant in today's business world.
Pass the salt please.

[Tsuba]

Pass the salt please.

H2So4 might be better Miner.....

[Mista_Trix]

lmao........... on another note RAK 6 monthly is due out tomorrow:(:((more relevant than you think) for years they have been selling leading technology in one of the biggest growth markets ever seen. Jeez I even think they had $150m in sales after 5 years
What hype and promise they showed and never delivered..... shares listed for $1 rose to a peak of $5 (on hype and promise surrounded by secrecy) and are now 35cps.
Good luck to holders but I suspect same management same results.

Oh my god man, give it up.
No wonder people are leaving for private message strings.

[Minerbarejet]

H2So4 might be better Miner.....
Nah, gives me acid reflux:)

BTW It looks as if there is some competition for CX Bladder Monitor in the pipeline
This:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/genomic-health-advances-liquid-biopsy-pipeline-shows-ability-to-accurately-monitor-urine-for-presence-of-bladder-cancer-300084563.html
and this:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/genomic-health-to-present-multiple-oncotype-dx-studies-and-positive-liquid-biopsy-results-at-american-urological-association-annual-meeting-may-15-19-300078775.html

Just so we cant be accused of onesidedness.:)

[skid]

Pass the salt please.


You gotta admit it was a hoot--even if it was dark humour

[skid]

H2So4 might be better Miner.....
Whats that got to do with chooks?:)

[skid]

Nah, gives me acid reflux:)

BTW It looks as if there is some competition for CX Bladder Monitor in the pipeline
This:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/genomic-health-advances-liquid-biopsy-pipeline-shows-ability-to-accurately-monitor-urine-for-presence-of-bladder-cancer-300084563.html
and this:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/genomic-health-to-present-multiple-oncotype-dx-studies-and-positive-liquid-biopsy-results-at-american-urological-association-annual-meeting-may-15-19-300078775.html

Just so we cant be accused of onesidedness.:)


OMG--Genomic health! That is our worst nightmare (seriously,it may surprise some but, I want this Kiwi co.(PEB) to succeed--but have just gotten frustrated with management and a few of the idealistic posts)--but this we do not need.

Hopefully it will take a long while to get to market(or maybe it wont be as good?)

And where was PEB at the AUA annual meeting in New Orleans where this presentation was made?