PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Antipodean]

https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/264571

Full Year Results to be Released on 28 May 2015
3:51pm, 20 May 2015 | GENERAL
20 May 2015


FULL YEAR RESULTS TO BE RELEASED ON 28 MAY 2015


Pacific Edge Limited (NZX:PEB) intends to announce its results for the financial year ended 31 March 2015 on Thursday 28 May 2015, prior to 10am NZST.


For more information contact:

[Tsuba]

Whats that got to do with chooks?:)

Here you go Skid. Just for you and Miner...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddLOviIZxlA

[Minerbarejet]

OMG--Genomic health! That is our worst nightmare (seriously,it may surprise some but, I want this Kiwi co.(PEB) to succeed--but have just gotten frustrated with management and a few of the idealistic posts)--but this we do not need.

Hopefully it will take a long while to get to market(or maybe it wont be as good?)

And where was PEB at the AUA annual meeting in New Orleans where this presentation was made?Relax, skid.
10% for PEB, 10% for Genomics maybe, who gets the other 80%?

[skid]

Here you go Skid. Just for you and Miner...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddLOviIZxlA

Thats better.....

[skid]

Genomics has been covered relatively well in earlier posts--Geez -if we had them here it would no doubt raise our GDP--not happy with just breast, bowel and prostate cancer tests--greedy b____terds.

[Joshuatree]

Whats that got to do with chooks?:)

Even better fit

Headless Chicken Lives - YouTube (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCgQtwIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DATz 3AdbjyRI&ei=eC1cVanBKs_k8AWZkIDYAw&usg=AFQjCNHwMhDGqYQGBvR-vUW-fLAMRacS_Q&bvm=bv.93756505,d.dGc)

[Carpenterjoe]

Quick question to the brains trust, have you guys read page 61 of MDXhealth last annual report (Feb)? covers issues regarding reimbursement, revenue and when revenue is recognised. Question, could this same situation apply to peb?

http://mdxhealth.com/financials

I know DD and Co have done a very impressive job of operating a lean machine, but reading MDXreport where they mention having 60-80 sales reps in five years, do we think Peb are being aggressive enough with only 12or16? Keeping in mind the training time for each rep.

Sorry if this has already been covered and sorry if some find these questions stupid, but the only stupid question is the one that is not asked.

Cheers

[Minerbarejet]

Quick question to the brains trust, have you guys read page 61 of MDXhealth last annual report (Feb)? covers issues regarding reimbursement, revenue and when revenue is recognised. Question, could this same situation apply to peb?

http://mdxhealth.com/financials

I know DD and Co have done a very impressive job of operating a lean machine, but reading MDXreport where they mention having 60-80 sales reps in five years, do we think Peb are being aggressive enough with only 12or16? Keeping in mind the training time for each rep.

Sorry if this has already been covered and sorry if some find these questions stupid, but the only stupid question is the one that is not asked.

CheersHave just read page 61 and it seems to have quite a few similarities to PEBs case. PEB have stated that they are processing Medicare patients and it would appear they are not getting paid as yet. If these tests are unrecognised and are therefore not included as receivables and we dont know how many have been done as a proportion of the lab throughput, then we are in the dark until things get sorted. If the MDX case is normal for this scene then it looks as if their revenue is about half of what is due.
Working backwards from the FY 15 results next week this may give us some rough idea of throughput to revenue ratio and therefore numbers of tests performed. ie if Peb announces 2.0 mill in revenue recognised from sales is there actually 4.0 million altogether giving 8000 odd tests?
Bit of a long bow to draw but its a big target:)
It was always suspected there would be some kind of windfall eventually via Medicare after signup.
Dont know if MDX are targeting large groups of urologists like PEB. This may account for the bigger sales force if they are going direct to doctors.
Thanks for pointing page 61 out, it has made things quite a bit clearer for me and probably for others.


P.S.Seems that the news feeds are hitting overtime. Have had about 5 alerts from various sources, the latest from FierceBiotech. Words getting out, bigtime.:):)

[skid]

Have just read page 61 and it seems to have quite a few similarities to PEBs case. PEB have stated that they are processing Medicare patients and it would appear they are not getting paid as yet. If these tests are unrecognised and are therefore not included as receivables and we dont know how many have been done as a proportion of the lab throughput, then we are in the dark until things get sorted. If the MDX case is normal for this scene then it looks as if their revenue is about half of what is due.
Working backwards from the FY 15 results next week this may give us some rough idea of throughput to revenue ratio and therefore numbers of tests performed. ie if Peb announces 2.0 mill in revenue recognised from sales is there actually 4.0 million altogether giving 8000 odd tests?
Bit of a long bow to draw but its a big target:)
It was always suspected there would be some kind of windfall eventually via Medicare after signup.
Dont know if MDX are targeting large groups of urologists like PEB. This may account for the bigger sales force if they are going direct to doctors.
Thanks for pointing page 61 out, it has made things quite a bit clearer for me and probably for others.


P.S.Seems that the news feeds are hitting overtime. Have had about 5 alerts from various sources, the latest from FierceBiotech. Words getting out, bigtime.:):)


Here we go again--googled Fierce Biotek----no sign of PEB Whats the point of getting in a number of publications if you are stuck somewhere in a hidden cob web filled corner that no one sees? (your system of alerts is flawed in that sense if you dont carry on and see if it is there to see for the customer(whoever that is)---Heres a little test-

On May 28th someones reputation is on the line --either PEB or Edison

Even if you decide to project that thier revenues are double @4% of their target (100mil) Is that good enough for year 3 with some big players coming on at pace ?(thats not just heresay any more with genomic throwing their hat in --Is now a race.


PS--4am?--dont you sleep?:)

[Minerbarejet]

Here we go again--googled Fierce Biotek----no sign of PEB Whats the point of getting in a number of publications if you are stuck somewhere in a hidden cob web filled corner that no one sees? (your system of alerts is flawed in that sense if you dont carry on and see if it is there to see for the customer(whoever that is)---Heres a little test-

On May 28th someones reputation is on the line --either PEB or Edison

Even if you decide to project that thier revenues are double @4% of their target (100mil) Is that good enough for year 3 with some big players coming on at pace ?(thats not just heresay any more with genomic throwing their hat in --Is now a race.


PS--4am?--dont you sleep?:) Sorry, Skid, it wasnt biotech but Diagnostics. Here is the link.
http://www.fiercediagnostics.com/press-releases/pacific-edges-cxbladder-triage-accurately-stratifies-patients-bladder-cance

Much the same as the others.
cxbladder detect launched in July 2013
How do you figure year 3? It hasnt been available 2 years yet in the States
Try and forget they ever mentioned 100 million, that is not the defining moment.
That moment is where they make a profit, however minor.
Genomics hat consists of a bladder cancer monitor,( not detect, triage or predict) and wont be out until 2016
Still has to be better than CxBladder to be a threat.
The only race is the human race that all these companies are trying to help.
Rust never sleeps.

[MAC]

Hi Carpenterjoe,

It may seem to be a lot of sales folk at 80, Exact Sciences have appointed 180 sales staff within their first year of commercialisation for their diagnostic test Cologuard.

Although RNA based molecular diagnostic companies all have a similar laboratory test processes and similar gross margins, circa 80%, their respective markets that they sell into are each a little different.

When selling to General Practitioners a very large sales force is required as there are literally millions of GP’s in the US, each offers the potential of prescribing a small number of tests each per annum.

When selling to Specialists, or directly into medical facilities, hospitals, a much lower number of sales staff is required to cover just a few thousand Specialists, each of whom offer the potential of prescribing relatively very many tests each per annum.

With Cxbladder(detect), Pacific Edge are marketing to 11,500 specialist urologists in the US, many of whom clump together in large urology groups. Thus, only 20 sales staff may be ultimately be required for this product, as Pacific Edge tell us.

For Cxbladder(triage), Pacific Edge may very well market this product to General Practitioners, we have not been advised by the company yet, perhaps when the official US product launch is announced shortly.

The benefit to Pacific Edge with Cxbladder(detect), is that not only do they have very high gross margins for the product at 80%, but also because they need much fewer sales staff, and associated overhead, their net margins are also much more profitable to the bottom line.

Quite an enviable product really within the diagnostics world !

kind regards, Mac

[MAC]

It’s just my idle speculation, that’s all it openly is, but I do suspect that there were possibly two reasons why the launch of Cxbladder(triage) did not occur in the US at the same time that it did in NZ.

Firstly, I believe they were awaiting the completion of the recent study in the US and the local population tuning of the Phenotypic parameters used in the Cxbladder(triage) test process. All done now and well published and presented here;

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/s12894-015-0018-5.pdf

And secondly, it is possible they may have in that six month period been courting a distributing partner whom would market and sell Cxbladder(triage) on their behalf to a mixed market of General Practitioners, Specialists and medical facilities.

It may or may not be that they will wait for the completion of the KP user programme, I’m not convinced they need to do so.

However, as Minerbarejet has very kindly pointed out, the promotional company that Pacific Edge use has been plastering Cxbladder(triage) articles all over the internet this week, probably behind the scenes heavily also, and that may well be the preclude to a US launch announcement, and maybe a coincident partnership agreement announcement also, although there is no reason why that could not come later.

Perhaps we will find out more from the FY commentary and conference call next week.

[Minerbarejet]

It would appear that they weren't too worried about completion of the NZDHB triage trial as this ends next month yet they launched Triage in NZ Dec 2014. Is this a precedent? Will a launch of Triage in the US (as indicated) in June be a precursor for a 6 month later
KP test conclusion. Thats being pretty confident on their part but they would sure help our confidence if they put out quarterly reports as so many companies do.

[skid]

Sorry, Skid, it wasnt biotech but Diagnostics. Here is the link.
http://www.fiercediagnostics.com/press-releases/pacific-edges-cxbladder-triage-accurately-stratifies-patients-bladder-cance

Much the same as the others.
cxbladder detect launched in July 2013
How do you figure year 3? It hasnt been available 2 years yet in the States
Try and forget they ever mentioned 100 million, that is not the defining moment.
That moment is where they make a profit, however minor.
Genomics hat consists of a bladder cancer monitor,( not detect, triage or predict) and wont be out until 2016
Still has to be better than CxBladder to be a threat.
The only race is the human race that all these companies are trying to help.
Rust never sleeps.

I was looking at the chart on edison that had the years 2012-2016 did they mention the 5 yr plan in 2012?---Maybe I got it wrong --if so apologies

[Minerbarejet]

I was looking at the chart on edison that had the years 2012-2016 did they mention the 5 yr plan in 2012?---Maybe I got it wrong --if so apologies
The PEB management have stated several times that the five year plan starts with the first full year of commercial sales. Noting that cxbladder detect was launched in July 2013 and commercial sales started in Sept or Oct of that year. Assuming they mean financial year, the starting year would be the year from April 1 2014 to March 31 2015 the reporting of which, lo and behold, is almost upon us.

[skid]

PEB originally announced the results of the Kaiser program would be out early this year--Edison says a very different story---lets hope that we get some clarification when the results come out--along with revenue of course.

Of course we will compare to the Edison report (as there is nothing else to compare to)

[Carpenterjoe]

PEB originally announced the results of the Kaiser program would be out early this year--Edison says a very different story---lets hope that we get some clarification when the results come out--along with revenue of course.

Of course we will compare to the Edison report (as there is nothing else to compare to)

ill pass,

I prefer to monitor Medical Guidelines in different countries, I feel when the guidelines catch up with the technology, that will be more important than annual reports or Edison. For that to happen, I believe the only step remaining is to prove cx bladder is financially advantageous to the healthcare system.
I cannot see this report containing any amazing information. Especially with the way pacific edge is reimbursed/revenue recognised, it will be impossible for revenue to catch up with some people's expectations. therefore some will be disappointed and others will understand the plan.

Rock and Roll

[Minerbarejet]

You could compare it to the last Forbarr report instead.
Or wait for a new one after the conference call.

Ref post 13360

[skid]

ill pass,

I prefer to monitor Medical Guidelines in different countries, I feel when the guidelines catch up with the technology, that will be more important than annual reports or Edison. For that to happen, I believe the only step remaining is to prove cx bladder is financially advantageous to the healthcare system.
I cannot see this report containing any amazing information. Especially with the way pacific edge is reimbursed/revenue recognised, it will be impossible for revenue to catch up with some people's expectations. therefore some will be disappointed and others will understand the plan.

Rock and Roll

I agree--It will be more of the same for a good while yet..

[skid]

You could compare it to the last Forbarr report instead.
Or wait for a new one after the conference call.

Ref post 13360

Yes you could--assuming that either has the depth that the edison report had (for better or worse)--Do you reckon the conference call will have those time frames and spreadsheet? That would be a great change if they do.

Mark my words though-Genomic is a threat--Its a one stop shop and hudge company that easily grabs headlines (you saw their presence at the AUA conference,which is the holy grail of exposer)--their test detects the presence of tumors--How big of a step to go to diagnostic---But they could be a savior also (well,for some)as they could buy out PEB --swallow the minnow---Perhaps wait till coverage comes through--It would be far more valuable in their stable(all heresay of course)

most likely we will be looking at alot of sideways action for awhile yet in this miniscule little corner of the medical world

[trader_jackson]

Well I just joined sharetrader, as I am quite an enthusiastic investor in shares (although young - so more of a buy and hold investor), and I have watched this thread with great interest over the past few months (interesting the different ideas everyone has). I personally believe that next week Thursday will be a make or break day for Pacific Edge, I think it is going to give everyone an idea as to if their product(s) can be sold, or not. I'm possibly not quite as optimistic as MAC, but I do believe that, should things turn out well (as I am cautiously confident they will), the share price could be comfortably over $1 by end of next month.

[Carpenterjoe]

welcome aboard TJ.
I don't think one way or the other this coming report is not going to be make or break it for PEB and will offer very little in the way of proving if they have a saleable product or not.
Given that it is fairly obvious things are moving slowly(apparently in line with companies expectations but they won't tell shareholders what that is so can only be judged as rhetoric) I think it is 12-18 months to early to make the make it or break it call.


P.S I will gladly take a side bet with you about PEB being over a $1 at the end of next month.

Wow, think this is a first for me. I agree Snaps, well said.

Except for the slowly bit, but it's the weekend. So I'll leave the bait be,

Welcome TJ, please share your questions and research, I know I need all the help I can get!!!

[skid]

Oh they have a saleable product alright--but can they sell it..?

[Minerbarejet]

Everyone getting ready for the fireworks display next week? Looking forward to seeing some rockets if this low cloud disappears.

[skid]

If we are venturing guesses I would say that it will be anticlimactic and we will find that Edison has ''let the cat out of the bag'' early--just dont see how they could come up with all that detail without some consultation.

why would Edison say that the Kaiser trials will be end of 2015-early 2016?--Can you think of a good reason they would say that if they didnt have some sort of info?

Nevertheless there has been a pretty big splash made about getting some of the ''big'' players signed (Fed Med etc.--multiple millions of patients)---That has been going long enough to have an affect on sales---so be looking for that.(unless you think Kaiser is the only way they will achieve decent sales)


Meanwhile...what kind of numbers would you expect it would take for ''rockets''

[Minerbarejet]

Just going to sit back and watch. With this market anything could happen, nobody knows what the market is expecting overall and I dont know if the rockets are pointing upwards, downwards or sideways. I just feel there are going to be fireworks of some sort come Thursday morning. I dont think it will be hohum, shrug, so what.

[Tsuba]

Is old Shnapster going to take a sneaky possition the day before incase the rockets go vertical ?????

[skid]

Just going to sit back and watch. With this market anything could happen, nobody knows what the market is expecting overall and I dont know if the rockets are pointing upwards, downwards or sideways. I just feel there are going to be fireworks of some sort come Thursday morning. I dont think it will be hohum, shrug, so what.

You never know...but remember the last result? the rockets fired but fell back to hohum,shrug-------PS--is there such thing as rocketing sideways?--suppose it could be like a rocket that has lost its guidance system and is going all over the place---like.....oh yea like the last result:)

[skid]

Is old Shnapster going to take a sneaky possition the day before incase the rockets go vertical ?????

Yep,and Mac and Miner will sell out and you dont like chickens..:):)

[winner69]

You mean like this Skid? Looks like it's going up to me - the results are all FY except HY 2015 until I get the figures 28th May. Do you follow or research / read PEB at all Skid?

7360

Not very forward looking Hancocks .....would have expected you to prepare the y-axis for the 15 result

[skid]

You mean like this Skid? Looks like it's going up to me - the results are all FY except HY 2015 until I get the figures 28th May. Do you follow or research / read PEB at all Skid?

7360

I believe he was referring to the share price--(will the share price rocket) The question is why didnt the SP rocket after the results of 2014 which looks great on your graph,compared to 2013---but to be fair ,that graph would look quite different if you stood it up to $100,000,000 or what ever revenue it takes to acquire a real lift off--the question is --will the numbers be enough this time around?

Are you expecting a big lift? we'll see soon

[MAC]

I'm not one for speculating on the short term either Hancock’s, who really knows if the FOMO set will do what they do this time or next, don't really care to be honest.

Although the SP is undervalued by 86% even by Forbar’s very conservative effort at $1.30, and that may just be a reason enough on its own for a move.

There are I think some long termer's who have holding off for an entry point, and the shareprice will only track sideways for so long, once molecular diagnostic company revenue curves take-off they tend to go quickly, and there will be a point where the insto's will all jump on board to ride that curve.

It might be this report or it might be the next, who knows, but there is certainly a lot on the horizon within the next several months to kick things uphill, Medicare coverage, VA coverage, KP contract sign up, launch of triage, maybe predict also, possibly the appointment of a distributing partner, perhaps some private insurer coverage too.

The first year of commercialisation is at a close, typically it is the second year for molecular diagnostic company products that sees the first big ramp in revenues.

I’m looking for circa 3 to 4 times the revenue we see next week to be reported at the end of year two, FY16, noting that the sales force was only really in place and up to speed for under six months of the FY15 period.

[Minerbarejet]

You mean like this Skid? Looks like it's going up to me - the results are all FY except HY 2015 until I get the figures 28th May. Do you follow or research / read PEB at all Skid?

7360Knowing that the lab throughput for Q3 = Q1+Q2, and Q4 was tracking higher than Q3,
(Aussie Presentation) and if the throughput is consistent in its revenue generating ratio then the yellow column for 2015 is only 33% of where it could be next week, at least.
Sure looks like a rocket to me.:)

[skid]

I'm not one for speculating on the short term either Hancock’s, who really knows if the FOMO set will do what they do this time or next, don't really care to be honest.

Although the SP is undervalued by 86% even by Forbar’s very conservative effort at $1.30, and that may just be a reason enough on its own for a move.

There are I think some long termer's who have holding off for an entry point, and the shareprice will only track sideways for so long, once molecular diagnostic company revenue curves take-off they tend to go quickly, and there will be a point where the insto's will all jump on board to ride that curve.

It might be this report or it might be the next, who knows, but there is certainly a lot on the horizon within the next several months to kick things uphill, Medicare coverage, VA coverage, KP contract sign up, launch of triage, maybe predict also, possibly the appointment of a distributing partner, perhaps some private insurer coverage too.

The first year of commercialisation is at a close, typically it is the second year for molecular diagnostic company products that sees the first big ramp in revenues.

I’m looking for circa 3 to 4 times the revenue we see next week to be reported at the end of year two, FY16, noting that the sales force was only really in place and up to speed for under six months of the FY15 period.

The fact that the SP is 86% below Forbars estimate a reason on its own to give the SP lift off---I dont think so

Why isnt Fed Med and the others (millions of customers) and an energetic sales force cranking for 6 months enough to really give the coming numbers a boost--(they must be doing well enough that PEB didnt need to turn up at the AUA annual convention in New Orleans where all those urologists go)

That horizon may be next week ,or next month,or next year(as Edison said (possibly)--When the horizon comes (all going well and hopefully to plan) then we need to see what kind of a deal they can negotiate.

I agree alot of long termers (or any termers) have been holding off for an entry point until a revenue curve takes off--then there will be time for not only insto's but any investor to jump on board to ride the curve-(so what if its not absolutely picking the bottom)--and why not?--they would then have proved they can mix it with the big boys--there wont be an horizons anymore, but much more certainty,in other words they would have taken advantage of the opportunities and made them successful.

[MAC]

I’ve read and assessed the Forbar reports and revision notes really quite thoroughly thanks.

The price target they have at present $1.30 (+86% from here) is very heavily and conservatively discounted for risk, in WACC, in schedule timing and through other assumptions they have adopted.

My feel is that they don’t want to be seen to have a price target too high above present SP and will increment it a bit every few months as time goes by, that’s a view I’ve shared on this thread consistently for nearly a year now, ever since there initiating position in July last year.

I don’t see that changing anytime soon either, and suspect we may very well see another increment after the FY.

The intrinsic value of the company increases every month that goes by, as they increase their adoption case portfolio, publish demonstrating papers, ramp up sales staff, work their way through key negotiations, prepare for new product launches, garner an ever increasing number of international patents, and progress the product pipeline with Callahan funding.

Forbar Price Target Over Time Chart (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBPriceTargetConsensus_zpsxuipyhfp.jpg.html)

7362

[skid]

Skid, do you read or follow PEB?

HyperLink: Pacific Edge - Calendar of Events (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news-and-media/calendar-of-events/)

Sorry ---I tend to look elsewhere than their own site(PEB) for mention of them in the outside world--i searched all over the AUA site for PEB (search engine etc. and couldnt find a thing--so I stand corrected.

But Im not really getting any warm fuzzies fron those price charts--all im seeing is that they are continually missing their targets. ???

Guess they are saying that in may 2015 someday they will have a share price of $1.30 ??

[Minerbarejet]

(Miner busily winds clock forward to Thursday lunchtime hoping this will speed things up, then goes out to repair his brick wall)
Again.

[Minerbarejet]

Guess they are saying that in may 2015 someday they will have a share price of $1.30 ??
What on earth are you talking about?
Pacific Edge does not dictate the share price nor do they predict it.
It is solely a reflection of the valuation that Mr Market thinks it is worth from the financial facts available at any given point.
At one point the total collective analysis thought it was worth 1.72.
It may very well do that again at some stage.

( miner writes down several numbers between 2 and 10 million on a piece of paper then tears up the paper and puts them in his hat. Draws one out.)
Here you go, skid.
FY 15 : 4.3 million inc grants
Whats your GUESS?:)

[skid]

It's hard to respond to that post, because:

(a) its too jointed for me to follow; and
(b) there is no supporting links / reference / documentation to support your opinion?

I'm just trying to get a handle on your posts, which apparently (your admission) are sourced from limited data or resources - it may be that the main source is from some of the facile and banal posts by others on this thread.

Ill try to clarify I got the AUA wrong(looks like they were there) I think some posters spend so much time looking inward(basically at the product ,which by now ,we know is good)and I accept that its good,but not much time looking outward at the market in general and its potential hurdles that any company has to overcome. There is the competition,conservative medical people who are slow to change-awareness of the product(which is what I was getting at with the conference) etc,--Those things can be interpreted as slagging the company,but looking at it another way,correcting those issues can also make it a better company ,so it is ,I think constructive.
I think this point was partially shown by the fact that (PEB)realized that their old PR co. was not worth its salt and changed firms.(Ive heard very little on this thread about the importance of marketing(the best product can fail without it)
Alot of my posts are responses to some of the ideas that the product alone is enough and paint a picture that is not a true reflection of the reality of the situation in the market place. That may change on Fri .we'll see.
Its more or less just a way of saying ''Hold on -slow down a minute -have you considered this''
Miner gets alerts,so he sees when anything regarding PEB gets mentioned anywhere--that sounds like PEB is getting plastered all over and is getting high profile attention,but in fact ,alot of those clips ,noone really sees they are so buried,and some are no more than a small paid PR--still a step in the right direction,but misleading to think it is setting up for a surge.

My mistake was obviously looking outward and missing the caledar of events (inward)(which I guess is the other side of the coin)

The charts I take with a grain of salt simply because they have been making those projections for a while now and nothing has come to pass--Whats the point of basing your investment decisions on an analyst's price target upgrade if their original target is no closer.

There are alot of statements around on this thread that insinuate we are on the brink of a surge of monumental proportions and its pretty much a sure thing -I dont think PEB has established itself to the point that it has become the product of choice yet (even though it most likely deserves it) so its steady as she goes (but lets not get carried away)

I think we would all be better off if 2 things had not happened--
the first--they should have never claimed that within 5 years time they would be turning over 100 mil a year (each year)

Second--We'd be better off if that speculative run up to $1.70 and subsequent crash had not happened-(it makes some think we are on the brink of another similar scenario and the market is in a different place now)--we'd be better off being happy with possibly another increase without the hype, if ,they do indeed ,get things right --its irrational IMO to jump in ,boots and all, until a bit of a track record is set(in the market -not the lab)

[skid]

What on earth are you talking about?
Pacific Edge does not dictate the share price nor do they predict it.
It is solely a reflection of the valuation that Mr Market thinks it is worth from the financial facts available at any given point.
At one point the total collective analysis thought it was worth 1.72.
It may very well do that again at some stage.

( miner writes down several numbers between 2 and 10 million on a piece of paper then tears up the paper and puts them in his hat. Draws one out.)
Here you go, skid.
FY 15 : 4.3 million inc grants
Whats your GUESS?:)

I guess I would fall in with Edisons report because it just seems far to detailed to just be a guess

I would then venture to say that not anything big would happen until the Kaiser report (which is more of a validation than numbers)
If you look at the report that info on when it should come to pass does not look like a wild guess,which leads me to believe that it is from consulting with PEB (which means patience most likely is required)

[Minerbarejet]

Firstly they did not claim they would be turning over 100 mil in 5 years. They said 100 mil in revenue was the goal they were aiming at.
Big difference.

Secondly, how would you prevent a speculative run up and crash, nobody makes people buy and sell shares, they do it themselves using their judgement on what information is available.

Fail to see how you can know what others think.

The alerts have gone from 1 a week to sometimes 2 a day from different sources which indicates that articles are getting more exposure on various websites. The alert comes as a result of the article being posted initially but given the amount of stuff published is probably fairly rapidly archived into your cobwebbed corner.

I dont recall seeing anything that says a monumental surge is coming.
So whats your estimate or guess for FY 15. Presumably as you have asked for estimates from others you have one of your own.
Just wondering if next week is a rocket or a damp squid:)

[MAC]

It happens quickly when it does for molecular biotech too ay Miner,

Five to ten years in the lab under development, then one to two years working up clinical case files as at present, then boo and boom, $100M in revenues in just a few years.

SHAREHOLDER WEALTH (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBWealth_zpsc3hjsyyy.jpg.html)

7363

[skid]

I didnt say we could have prevented the run up--just said we would be in a more realistic head space if it had'nt happend



on the 100mil--from Otago Daily times

He reiterated earlier estimates, of achieving an annual US$100 million ($123 million) turnover within five years, noting the US$100 million was mid-range of estimate

thats his estimate--wouldnt common sense use that as a benchmark?

Some are insinuating if that all is lined up and those who wait will miss big time--just read back through some of the posts

Im predicting more of the same(I guess thats closer to damp squid than rocket)

Im predicting what Edison said - mainly because I suspect they have been in contact with PEB and we have been forewarned.

Point is -slow growth is not enough in the long term--they need that boost that may(if edison is correct)is still down the line

[MAC]

Well you know, some gloomy random guy on the internet could be correct about Pacific Edge’s goal, or the hundreds of years of collective experience amongst the company’s scientific advisory board, clinical advisory board, and management could be correct also.

Time will tell I guess.

Experience garnered from all over the world from those who intimately know what specialist urologists, hospital boards and insurers seek, and management with a successful history of bringing prior biotech products to the marketplace. Not to mention the published clinical evidence demonstrating the products superiority to anything else around.

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/advisory-boards/clinical-advisory/

[Minerbarejet]

I didnt say we could have prevented the run up--just said we would be in a more realistic head space if it had'nt happend



on the 100mil--from Otago Daily times

He reiterated earlier estimates, of achieving an annual US$100 million ($123 million) turnover within five years, noting the US$100 million was mid-range of estimate

thats his estimate--wouldnt common sense use that as a benchmark?

Some are insinuating if that all is lined up and those who wait will miss big time--just read back through some of the posts

Im predicting more of the same(I guess thats closer to damp squid than rocket)

Im predicting what Edison said - mainly because I suspect they have been in contact with PEB and we have been forewarned.

Point is -slow growth is not enough in the long term--they need that boost that may(if edison is correct)is still down the line
The realistic head space we are in as of now is a share price of circa 72 cents prior to the announcement of FY 15 earnings. Nobody knows, ( or shouldn't) what that figure is ( including your beloved Edison).
Im quite happy with this. Further news will be forthcoming from PEB at some stage that may or may not convince the market that it is undervalued. Some of us think it is, some of us think it isnt.
PEB's goal of 100 mil revenue is an estimate, guideline, ballpark figure giving investors some idea of the magnitude of what is involved. It is by no means a benchmark. Next time you are walking down the street and see a benchmark take note that it is set in concrete.
So are you happy or unhappy with Edison and your selection of 3.4 mil?
Would a result 10 % different either side of that figure indicate that perhaps Edison dont get info from PEB and are playing guessing games just like us?

[skid]

Well you know, some gloomy random guy on the internet could be correct about Pacific Edge’s goal, or the hundreds of years of collective experience amongst the company’s scientific advisory board, clinical advisory board, and management could be correct also.

Time will tell I guess.

Experience garnered from all over the world from those who intimately know what specialist urologists, hospital boards and insurers seek, and management with a successful history of bringing prior biotech products to the marketplace. Not to mention the published clinical evidence demonstrating the products superiority to anything else around.

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/advisory-boards/scientific-advisory/

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/about-us/advisory-boards/clinical-advisory/

The gloomy guy on the internet was Chris Swann--One thing I think we are in agreement on is that the next result will be far more informative of where things are going than this one.

[skid]

The realistic head space we are in as of now is a share price of circa 72 cents prior to the announcement of FY 15 earnings. Nobody knows, ( or shouldn't) what that figure is ( including your beloved Edison).
Im quite happy with this. Further news will be forthcoming from PEB at some stage that may or may not convince the market that it is undervalued. Some of us think it is, some of us think it isnt.
PEB's goal of 100 mil revenue is an estimate, guideline, ballpark figure giving investors some idea of the magnitude of what is involved. It is by no means a benchmark. Next time you are walking down the street and see a benchmark take note that it is set in concrete.
So are you happy or unhappy with Edison and your selection of 3.4 mil?
Would a result 10 % different either side of that figure indicate that perhaps Edison dont get info from PEB and are playing guessing games just like us?

I dont love Edison-(Im not even a fan)-maybe they are totally wrong--but you asked me for a guess and I believe that they may have more info than you think because of the detail of their report --Its not fact--just my opinion (of course if they get it wrong then we will know Edison was guessing)

meanwhile I feel you are trying to change the goal posts--before everyone was drooling over the 100mil estimate--Now you seem to think we are taking it to seriously and to use it as a guide is expecting to much, and Mac is saying we are underestimating the figure--maybe you guys should have a chat.

[MAC]

It is a nice round number $100,000,000, I also recall David Darling telling us in the past also that it is an indicative objective, certainly as early on as 2011 it was offered as an equivalent to around about a 10% market share.

Of course since then Pacific Edge have identified several additional applications for the Cxbladder technology suite, and, the market itself is increasing at a rate of 3% per annum, there are 3% more cases of bladder cancer in the US each year that goes by.

So contextually, it is roughly a 10% market share target after five years of operation within a market that will itself grow 15% within that same time frame.

The relative scale of contemporaries is also contextual, each diagnostic product has its own potential and clinical market focus, although overall the healthcare sector trends, tailwinds and adoption of the generic benefits these types of diagnostic products is clear and proven now.

The analyst consensus revenues for Exact Sciences diagnostic product Cologuard for their second year of operation is US$45M, for their third year it is US$162M. A timely comparison as they are around 6 to 12 months ahead of Pacific Edge in a similar commercialisation sequence.

Whilst the market for colon cancer and Cologuard is larger as the 4th most prevalent type of cancer, it offers some perspective for the bladder cancer market which is the 6th most prevalent.

Indeed, Genomic Health with their Oncotype diagnostic test for breast cancer, the most prevalent form of cancer, now have a 24% market share US$270M in annual revenues, and, as a company they are now targeting $2B in annual revenues internationally by 2020.

Quite a humble and understated goal $100M IMO.

[Minerbarejet]

I dont love Edison-(Im not even a fan)-maybe they are totally wrong--but you asked me for a guess and I believe that they may have more info than you think because of the detail of their report --Its not fact--just my opinion (of course if they get it wrong then we will know Edison was guessing)

meanwhile I feel you are trying to change the goal posts--before everyone was drooling over the 100mil estimate--Now you seem to think we are taking it to seriously and to use it as a guide is expecting to much, and Mac is saying we are underestimating the figure--maybe you guys should have a chat.Use it as a guide, indication, ambition, goal by all means
Dont use it as a benchmark and treat it as hard and fast rule that must be obeyed to the last letter or else the consequences will be to wipe the whole lot and start again because they were ten bucks short.
I do not drool, dribble perhaps, but definitely not drool.:)

[winner69]

Or we could let our judgement be swayed by your persistent talking up of prospects.......but first lets look at the charts below showing the performance of the 3 main stocks you have persistently ramp on ST over the last 12 month......PEB ATM CRP

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PEB.NZ#symbol=PEB.NZ;range=1y

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ATM.NZ#symbol=ATM.NZ;range=1y

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CRP.NZ#symbol=CRP.NZ;range=1y

But snaps me old mate you forget that "Over the long term the SP will always gravitate back toward valuation, it requires no other reason to do so"

If the Darling interpretation of 'successful commercialisation' is just bringing a product to market with no real ambition of ever making money than maybe the SP has already gravitated back to value, or has further to drop.

[skid]

Use it as a guide, indication, ambition, goal by all means
Dont use it as a benchmark and treat it as hard and fast rule that must be obeyed to the last letter or else the consequences will be to wipe the whole lot and start again because they were ten bucks short.
I do not drool, dribble perhaps, but definitely not drool.:)

Ok ,I wont,if there 10 bucks short----hows that brick wall going?--where i am I think the wind would blow it down(horizontal rain atm):)

[BlackPeter]

So try and avoid the hype and noise (very hard to do on this thread) as SP will always trend back to valuation in the mean time, to help get a handle on where the company is going, try and get a good understanding of what ultimately drive's the companies CEO's ego.
Very wise......... I do have an issue with a scientist still being the CEO of a company that has been at the commercialisation stage for sometime.

I see what you mean - on the other hand - Steve Jobs and Bill Gates did (as sort of computer scientists) not too bad with the little firms they did run ... and if we look at some of the companies in a closer industry: The Bayer AG is run by a chemist (Dr. Marijn Deckers) - and they seem to do ok-ish. Sanofi just appointed a physician as CEO (Dr. Olivier Brandicourt - he started his career in research) and so are many other similar modest chemical and pharmaceutical companies run by scientists.

Of course - they all could have done better than they did, but I think I am quite content if PEB grows under DD to the size of the companies I mentioned :p

[MAC]

I’m a long term investor, I hold shares for many years at a time and have no interest in ramping anything. My last transaction on PEB was in 2013 and was a capital raising.

I don’t mind representing the researched and considered views of the silent majority of long term shareholders who are positive about their investments, the company and the future, positive else they would not hold those investments.

If sharing research, facts, references, links and information with other constructive people conflicts with the manipulations of short term sentiment by cynics and trolls then I make no apology.

You may like to consider that harassment and personal attacks don’t go unnoticed and that they only really reflect upon the one making them and what that says about them.

Have a nice day :)

ATM Chart (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/ATMz_zpsjaihxtfn.jpg.html)

PEB Chart (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBz_zps7katatir.jpg.html)

7365
7366

[skid]

I’m a long term investor, I hold shares for many years at a time and have no interest in ramping anything. My last transaction on PEB was in 2013 and was a capital raising.

I don’t mind representing the researched and considered views of the silent majority of long term shareholders who are positive about their investments, the company and the future, positive else they would not hold those investments.


If sharing research, facts, references, links and information with other constructive people conflicts with the manipulations of short term sentiment by cynics and trolls then I make no apology.

You may like to consider that harassment and personal attacks don’t go unnoticed and that they only really reflect upon the one making them and what that says about them.

Have a nice day :)

ATM Chart (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/ATMz_zpsjaihxtfn.jpg.html)

PEB Chart (http://s300.photobucket.com/user/mclaugh02/media/PEBz_zps7katatir.jpg.html)

7365
7366

We know your a long term investor mac no need for name calling

[nextbigthing]

Hey Mac, you left off the CRP chart?

:D

[couta1]

Definition of a Troll- One who purposely and deliberately ( that purpose usually being self amusement) starts an argument in a manner which attacks others on a forum without in any way listening to the arguments proposed by his or her peers. There you are now that gives everyone a measuring stick to suss out the real Trolls:cool:

[Tsuba]

Me had a feeling things will be getting passionate this week.

[trader_jackson]

Tsuba... I think things will get passionate this week...

Pacific Edge have kicked it off with another positive announcement (although not price sensitive apparently)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/264743

No doubt preparing themselves for a big reporting day this Thursday...

[skid]

2 down - there COULD be more

Fair enough--It was starting to get a bit passionate (Man,thats alot of stars!):):)

Anyway, heres how Im reading the basic consensus--Obviously theres different views on PEB but most seem to agree that this report is most likely not going to be a major turning point,the reason being that to really get some traction they will need the lift that coverage resulting from the Kaiser report would possibly give (which is a debate in itself) So the real question is how far away that result is.
Edison has put a rather specific time frame on that (and even mentioned some price barganing after,if all goes well) but ofcourse we dont know just how accurate Edisons projections are.--(if they are completely off I will certainly wonder why they put so much into the specifics,esp the trial results)

Every one pretty much agrees on the quality of the product-but there are different views on how well they are promoting it and bringing it to the market.

We know everything about the product and very little about the American medical community and whether the large competitors can influence enough to dominate the market with a product that is not as good.

We also dont know whether the product is good enough to sell itself (when coverage comes) or whether an aggressive marketing campaign is necessary and if so how well are they doing in this area

We also dont know what new products are in the pipeline that could provide serious competition and how far PEB would have to be on their growth curve to be established enough to fend off these economic threats.

Of coruse there is the issue of a takeover which could or could not be beneficial to shareholders in a financial sense,but would of course cause an identity crises for some.

Feel free to add anything you feel would influence the success of the product

[Minerbarejet]

Tsuba... I think things will get passionate this week...

Pacific Edge have kicked it off with another positive announcement (although not price sensitive apparently)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/264743

No doubt preparing themselves for a big reporting day this Thursday...Coincidence. This announcement just confirms that the report has actually been published as previously indicated it would be but they werent sure when it would happen.
Welcome TJ.

[skid]

Tsuba... I think things will get passionate this week...

Pacific Edge have kicked it off with another positive announcement (although not price sensitive apparently)
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/264743

No doubt preparing themselves for a big reporting day this Thursday...

Thats been out there for awhile now ,but hey,a little further promotion cant hurt

[BlackPeter]

Fair enough--It was starting to get a bit passionate (Man,thats alot of stars!):):)

Anyway, heres how Im reading the basic consensus--Obviously theres different views on PEB but most seem to agree that this report is most likely not going to be a major turning point,the reason being that to really get some traction they will need the lift that coverage resulting from the Kaiser report would possibly give (which is a debate in itself) So the real question is how far away that result is.
Edison has put a rather specific time frame on that (and even mentioned some price barganing after,if all goes well) but ofcourse we dont know just how accurate Edisons projections are.--(if they are completely off I will certainly wonder why they put so much into the specifics,esp the trial results)

Every one pretty much agrees on the quality of the product-but there are different views on how well they are promoting it and bringing it to the market.

We know everything about the product and very little about the American medical community and whether the large competitors can influence enough to dominate the market with a product that is not as good.

We also dont know whether the product is good enough to sell itself (when coverage comes) or whether an aggressive marketing campaign is necessary and if so how well are they doing in this area

We also dont know what new products are in the pipeline that could provide serious competition and how far PEB would have to be on their growth curve to be established enough to fend off these economic threats.

Of coruse there is the issue of a takeover which could or could not be beneficial to shareholders in a financial sense,but would of course cause an identity crises for some.

Feel free to add anything you feel would influence the success of the product

good summary.

Maybe to add another point of contention - some seem to feel that a minnow like PEB have little chances to succeed in an heavily regulated market between all the established elephants ... without having a partner able to lift their profile.

Personally (as a small shareholder myself) I think it would feel better seeing them to work together with an well established and experienced partner in their chosen markets. Yes, given that they seem to have a good product it makes you wonder why it seems to be that difficult for them to find one.

Obviously - maybe they are not looking, but than the question springs to mind - WHY?

[skid]

good summary.

Maybe to add another point of contention - some seem to feel that a minnow like PEB have little chances to succeed in an heavily regulated market between all the established elephants ... without having a partner able to lift their profile.

Personally (as a small shareholder myself) I think it would feel better seeing them to work together with an well established and experienced partner in their chosen markets. Yes, given that they seem to have a good product it makes you wonder why it seems to be that difficult for them to find one.

Obviously - maybe they are not looking, but than the question springs to mind - WHY?

I believe someone said that they tried but It didnt work out (or they were turned down?)(not sure of the details--maybe someone knows a bit more about that?

One way or the other ,coming in with an established partner does seem to be a much more successful strategy from examples I have seen.

[Ginger_steps_]

well there goes an easy 500K down the toilet.... https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/264775

[Tsuba]

well there goes an easy 500K down the toilet.... https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/264775

Bad news ..... that should give the SP a lift. ;)

[Harvey Specter]

well there goes an easy 500K down the toilet.... https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/264775Seems harsh given it is one of the few fines I actually remember. At least it goes to effected previous shareholders but still hard on current shareholders, especially since it wasn't malicious (ie. no one was trading on the publicized news (were they?)).

[Minerbarejet]

Bad news ..... that should give the SP a lift. ;)
Hahahahaha, Absolutely. Spot on Tsuba.

[Wolf]

I struggle to see value in PEB at the present $230m Market Cap.
In my opinion PEB trades at a massive premium due to being pretty much the only biotech on the NZX, which is small in general.
Sure Cxbladder looks promising but sales are dismal and if this was listed on the ASX I doubt it would have a market cap higher than $100m if $50m.

[skid]

Looks like the SP went up around 50% at that time so I guess those that sold did lose out at the time and will get some compensation at the present shareholders expense---(Im not going to say anything about the competency of the management) since there has'nt been any problems with announcements before--Oh wait.......

Meanwhile David Darling was admitted to Dunedin hospital with a gunshot wound to......the foot:D

[Carpenterjoe]

I struggle to see value in PEB at the present $230m Market Cap.
In my opinion PEB trades at a massive premium due to being pretty much the only biotech on the NZX, which is small in general.
Sure Cxbladder looks promising but sales are dismal and if this was listed on the ASX I doubt it would have a market cap higher than $100m if $50m.

I agree, PEB's Mcap will hold strong as it has supportive shareholders. Undervalued/overvalued depends on the future.

Interesting, could you please give me evidence of the dismal sales?

How many tests have been completed?

What percentage of tests have been recognised as revenue?

How can you possibly gauge sales when you don't even know the price of the product to a user programe?

[Wolf]

I agree, PEB's Mcap will hold strong as it has supportive shareholders. Undervalued/overvalued depends on the future.

Interesting, could you please give me evidence of the dismal sales?

How many tests have been completed?

What percentage of tests have been recognised as revenue?

How can you possibly gauge sales when you don't even know the price of the product to a user programe?

Operating revenue for HY2015 was $1m, in the scope of a $230m market cap I would call that dismal.
PEB's market cap may definitely hold strong and dependent on the future may certainly be undervalued.

The problem for me is so much expectation is built into the current price! Risk/reward isn't there for me.

[nextbigthing]

Was dining in a fine restaurant this evening and overhead the following from a very intelligent sounding gentleman, his words not mine, something along the lines of,

"PEB would not have to pay 500k if the FMA believed any part of their story.PEB got caught red handed trying to manipulate when they were announcing hype to the market place pure and simple.
Not often has a NZ publicly listed company had to reimburse investors, that were out of pocket, for breaches of the continuous disclosure laws. Most (95%) of breaches get a slap on the wrist, so this was no minor offending. This should ring alarm bells"

Or something to that affect. He got into a Lambo later on.

[Carpenterjoe]

Operating revenue for HY2015 was $1m, in the scope of a $230m market cap I would call that dismal.
PEB's market cap may definitely hold strong and dependent on the future may certainly be undervalued.

The problem for me is so much expectation is built into the current price! Risk/reward isn't there for me.

Hmmmmm,

I suppose your looking for a bargain and I'm looking at potential.

Peb will never be your cup of tea. Maybe in year ten-fifteen when they have purchased/designed/negotiated a companion drug to assist with their diagnostics assets.

[Carpenterjoe]

Might be time for PEB to open a lab in the UK

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=32&ved=0CB4QFjABOB4&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pchurology.co.uk%2Fgovernance %2FNICE%2520bladder%2520cancer%2520guidelines%2520 update%25202015.pdf&ei=RxFjVYPREde78gXS6YP4Bg&usg=AFQjCNERMGyRf6vyFkvQihrmcGuH1yWCJw&sig2=w6jMjI3Av2fLhL7Nu4qVjw

[percy]

Was dining in a fine restaurant this evening and overhead the following from a very intelligent sounding gentleman, his words not mine, something along the lines of,

"PEB would not have to pay 500k if the FMA believed any part of their story.PEB got caught red handed trying to manipulate when they were announcing hype to the market place pure and simple.
Not often has a NZ publicly listed company had to reimburse investors, that were out of pocket, for breaches of the continuous disclosure laws. Most (95%) of breaches get a slap on the wrist, so this was no minor offending. This should ring alarm bells"

Or something to that affect. He got into a Lambo later on.

A word to the wise.
Lambo drivers are for the most part property developers,who usually have big b'lls,and are known to be "full of it".
If he had driven a Maserati,you could taken his words as gospel.
Be careful, as you may be dining with the wrong crowd.!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

[Tsuba]

A word to the wise.
Lambo drivers are for the most part property developers,who usually have big b'lls,and are known to be "full of it".
If he had driven a Maserati,you could taken his words as gospel.
Be careful, as you may be dining with the wrong crowd.!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

You took the words right out of my mouth percy. Was going to pen a Maserati analogy also. ;)

[Minerbarejet]

You took the words right out of my mouth percy. Was going to pen a Maserati analogy also. ;)Probably parked in a disability spot- as usual

[Harvey Specter]

If he had driven a Maserati,you could taken his words as gospel.


Was going to pen a Maserati analogy also. ;)
You both must be Mike Hosking Fans! (though I think he now drives a Ferrari)

[percy]

You both must be Mike Hosking Fans! (though I think he now drives a Ferrari)

Who is Mike Hosking ?
Ferrari drivers for the most part,only drive a Ferrari as a reward for "honest" endeavours.!!
Obtaining certain goals they reward themselves.
Disclosure.My L300's mileage is getting up.!!

[skid]

So what Im getting here is Wolf says PEB is overvalued and the market cap is simply held up by supportive shareholders and Carpenter J is saying he is on board for the potential--so the logical question would be are we talking about the potential to actually produce sales or to simply keep hold of supportive shareholders.

And others are discounting the fact that PEB has been fined(an unusual situation) because the people who commented on it drove a particular type of car

However you look at it that squeeky clean image has just taken a hit---It has to be either incompetence or intention to decieve--not much room for anything else

Obviously wont affect the results though except the financial loss of half a mil---but it could affect investor confidence

Never thought the payday for some investors would come in that form!

[trader_jackson]

It is a small issue that will affect the financial loss, but not revenue or any other key indicators for PEB (I think). Investor confidence shouldn't be dented, I doubt they will 'try' anything again, and it seemed to me more of a mistake than purposely trying to mislead the market/everyone. Results are just 48 hours away! (approx)

[Minerbarejet]

So what Im getting here is Wolf says PEB is overvalued and the market cap is simply held up by supportive shareholders and Carpenter J is saying he is on board for the potential--so the logical question would be are we talking about the potential to actually produce sales or to simply keep hold of supportive shareholders.

And others are discounting the fact that PEB has been fined(an unusual situation) because the people who commented on it drove a particular type of car

However you look at it that squeeky clean image has just taken a hit---It has to be either incompetence or intention to decieve--not much room for anything else

Obviously wont affect the results though except the financial loss of half a mil---but it could affect investor confidence

Never thought the payday for some investors would come in that form!How about a hiccup. ODT:)

[skid]

OK a mistake or hiccup--(like the bungled announcements a while back)--Are you SURE these guys are up to it in the real world?

Of course .all will be forgotten if great numbers come through--(but Im guessing they will still need room for shareholders interpretation of success)

[skid]

It is a small issue that will affect the financial loss, but not revenue or any other key indicators for PEB (I think). Investor confidence shouldn't be dented, I doubt they will 'try' anything again, and it seemed to me more of a mistake than purposely trying to mislead the market/everyone. Results are just 48 hours away! (approx)

'try' and mistake are 2 different things---$500,000 says its was a 'try' rather than mistake---It makes it just a bit harder for some to get all offended when people question ethics like the famous 10s of thousands of tests.

before you say it--just remember they brought this on themselves(and there aint much to talk about till thurs):)

[Mista_Trix]

Secondary article in the Dom Post business section. Ouch.
Haven't seen PEB in there in a long time, and this is the first we see - unfortunate.

Hopefully we'll see another, more positive one, soon.

[skid]

I think investor confidence will hold simply because the results are the big game in town--it may have an affect after, if results are mediocre (in terms of a combination of factors)

[Minerbarejet]

Sounds like a damned if you do and damned if you dont situation. PEB got backed into a corner by not having the permission of the other parties involved to release what would be sensitive information as they do in the states. The delay in obtaining this permission put them in contravention of the NZX rules of disclosure. So what do we risk; long, tortuous and expensive litigation and loss of contract in the States or a slap around the ears from NZX.

Good choice.

Hic:)

[Xerof]

They seem to forget that there is such a thing as a Trading Halt....come on lads, appoint a couple of hard bastards with some commercial nous onto the board, so these basic requirements don't trip you up all the time. (Preferably someone who drives a Lambo) :eek2:

[Wolf]

I'm simply looking for a return on my investment.
Have you taken a look at any of the other 100 bio's on the asx?
PEB has potential but don't cut yourself short by not looking around.

[Dentie]

So, PEB had about $20m in cash at 31/3/2014......$14.7m at 30/9/2014 (down $6m in 6 months) and today they have about $12m in cash (down about another $2.5m in 8 months)...

Seems like the burn is slowing down as one would expect (especially with the new staff etc)

[Casino]

Sounds like a damned if you do and damned if you dont situation. PEB got backed into a corner by not having the permission of the other parties involved to release what would be sensitive information as they do in the states. The delay in obtaining this permission put them in contravention of the NZX rules of disclosure. So what do we risk; long, tortuous and expensive litigation and loss of contract in the States or a slap around the ears from NZX.

Good choice.

Hic:)


It's about time to be unimpressed. Over-promising on test numbers and CMS shortly before insider selling. Suspicious timing of announcements. There is a pattern.

[trader_jackson]

I thought I would mention that when they released half year results (on 28 November) the market liked it very much, back in the 0.90's from the high 0.70's a few weeks earlier (although yes this was short lived).

I understand that with growth companies like this, you can't reliably base anything off the half year results, but still I thought I would mention it. My thinking is there is a chance they could once again surprise...

I also hear about the overseas American (and even chinese) Bio techs, and I think they make PEB look like a bargain (not that this is necessarily a credit to PEB)...

(Disclosure: like all my investments, hold small amount of PEB shares, although I am sure some of you might have guessed)

[Crash Test Dummy]

So, PEB had about $20m in cash at 31/3/2014......$14.7m at 30/9/2014 (down $6m in 6 months) and today they have about $12m in cash (down about another $2.5m in 8 months)...

Seems like the burn is slowing down as one would expect (especially with the new staff etc)

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/343516/pacific-edge-censure-costs-500k

Giving financial information to the press two days before the financial results are released ?

7367

[Minerbarejet]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/343516/pacific-edge-censure-costs-500k

Giving financial information to the press two days before the financial results are released ?

7367Nope, its a guess by ODT, not a quote. DD just said it hurts.

[winner69]

I thought it a bit ironic PEB offered the option of taking shares instead of cash as of the settlement

[Dentie]

I thought it a bit ironic PEB offered the option of taking shares instead of cash as of the settlement

Yes Winner. If I was one of those upset (maybe?) sellers ... I would certainly be taking the shares!

[nextbigthing]

So let me get this straight. Management screw up (as Xerof points out, why not a trading halt?) and the company cops a fine. Shareholders will be reimbursed using..... shareholder funds. And all the other shareholders get their holdings diluted if payment is taken in new shares.

Here's an alternative idea. Perhaps the funds for the fine could come from the managers who sold down after the announcement and the murky tens of thousands statement when they made a killing from other poor shareholders who didn't know sales weren't to follow.

Maybe a bit harsh but it seems unfair.

[Xerof]

Yeah but NBT, DD has already spent the funds he got on doing up his BBQ area, (and possibly buying a Lambo), so would probably have to sell even more shares to do what you suggest :ohmy:

[winner69]

Yes Winner. If I was one of those upset (maybe?) sellers ... I would certainly be taking the shares!

Glad you put an if in that sentence

[skid]

Nope, its a guess by ODT, not a quote. DD just said it hurts.

C'mon Miner that is grasping at straws --The article stated they have 12mill cash--you dont just make a guess like that without qualifying it.

Its hard to deny that things are mounting up---This incident would look alot cleaner if it hadnt been for that sale of shares(which gives new life to 10s of 1000s of tests)

Perhaps some of balances statements are gaining some credibility now? (litigation? i dont think so)

[winner69]

C'mon Miner that is grasping at straws --The article stated they have 12mill cash--you dont just make a guess like that without qualifying it.

Its hard to deny that things are mounting up---This incident would look alot cleaner if it hadnt been for that sale of shares(which gives new life to 10s of 1000s of tests)

Perhaps some of balances statements are gaining some credibility now (litigation? i dont think so)

OMG ....if there is only $12m thats more than $8m less than at end of last September.

Heck that's a half year cash burn not much different from the full year last year.

Can't be true, obviously a misquote eh cause if true they run out of cash this year sometime

[Xerof]

Not another infamous ODT "I have not had cash balance intercourse with that reporter" quote.

Winner, cash at HY was 14.7m, not 20m.

lets see in a couple of days whether we have another clanger misquote to deal with

[skid]

Edison has it at $20,444,000 for 2014 HY--interesting there would be that kind of discrepancy ??

[Dentie]

How about taking the jack boots off and putting on the slippers instead ....

They made an error which was more of an oversight (caused by cow-towing (?) to the yanks!!) and they have agreed to make restitution. Big deal!

So many seem to be focussed too much on these little details.... start taking a look at the big picture. Why are we always too eager to kick the crap out of the companies we are holding shares in?

Let's see where they actually are on Thursday.

[Minerbarejet]

(Item removed. No disrespect intended)
If that cash figure of 12 mil is correct then they have spent 6m approx up to Sept and 2.5 mill more up to yesterday as Dentie said.
Thats quite an improvement, wonder where all the cash is coming from? Bonus bonds? Power ball? Casino?
300,000 a month loss average over 8 months, down from a million a month and probably reducing monthly and with an increased staff yet.
Hmmmm. Thursday does look interesting doesn't it.:)

[Minerbarejet]

Edison has it at $20,444,000 for 2014 HY--interesting there would be that kind of discrepancy ??
Edison didnt even have the right number of shares on issue for the market cap originally, forgot about the capital raising in 2013.
Not too flash, eh.

[Xerof]

Yep, my main thrust was to point out Winners error on relative changes in cash over time, and Miner has done the work. Look for a split between bonus bonds, sales receipts and research grants though

cash on sidelines for a top up if the Eeyore brigade reappears after Thursdays result

[percy]

Enjoy your posts but do we really need the open blasphemy at the beggining? Good to respect what others hold dear aye.

He is a total heathen.[but I like him]
He has openly stated he wants a Lambo driver on the board.
I mean is nothing scared? lol.

[winner69]

Yes cash was $14m odd at half year. My mistake

So things are looking a lot brighter .....must be the payment of all those previously 'accrued' revenues I guess

[Xerof]

Percy, I'd stand myself but as I get around in a tired 97 Explorer, no-one has ever been prepared to nominate me.....

[couta1]

Fair call, I have changed my post but you have quoted it
All good I've deleted my post but I see Miner has also quoted it but thanks on behalf of many:cool:

[percy]

Percy, I'd stand myself but as I get around in a tired 97 Explorer, no-one has ever been prepared to nominate me.....

I would if I could,but am not able,as I do not hold any PEB shares. ..............
Ever thought of standing for HNZ board? ..............lol.
PS.I am pleased to see both you and Couta1 are acting as the gentlemen that both of you are.
Makes a very pleasant change to this thread.

[Minerbarejet]

All good I've deleted my post but I see Miner has also quoted it but thanks on behalf of many:cool:
Running repairs completed.

[skid]

Edison didnt even have the right number of shares on issue for the market cap originally, forgot about the capital raising in 2013.
Not too flash, eh.

Yep-They could be completely wrong on everything(seems weird they would even get the cash for 2014 wrong as that has already happened)--If this is the case Ill be baffled at the fact that something so detailed would be way off--still not totally convinced but we will see soon enough--suppose the projection of the kaiser is the most important factor in the report.

[nextbigthing]

(Item removed. No disrespect intended)
If that cash figure of 12 mil is correct then they have spent 6m approx up to Sept and 2.5 mill more up to yesterday as Dentie said.
Thats quite an improvement, wonder where all the cash is coming from? Bonus bonds? Power ball? Casino?
300,000 a month loss average over 8 months, down from a million a month and probably reducing monthly and with an increased staff yet.
Hmmmm. Thursday does look interesting doesn't it.:)

There's a few rumours floating around as to why they might have extra money.
#1 is that they've started selling advertising space on the boxes of the free kits they were handing out which was snapped up by the large pharmaceuticals.
#2 Is that they've actually patented a new process for constructing the cardboard boxes for the free kits they hand out, which is so efficient they're making a killing selling the rights to pizza shops.
#3 Is that DD is renting out his Lambo and holding fundraising BBQ's with all proceeds going to PEB
#4 Is that they're actually starting to make some real progress :scared:

Would you like salt on you eggs this morning Miner?

[skid]

How about taking the jack boots off and putting on the slippers instead ....

They made an error which was more of an oversight (caused by cow-towing (?) to the yanks!!) and they have agreed to make restitution. Big deal!

So many seem to be focussed too much on these little details.... start taking a look at the big picture. Why are we always too eager to kick the crap out of the companies we are holding shares in?

Let's see where they actually are on Thursday.

Because it points towards incompetence of the management (they are getting audited as well)--This is not an isolated incident--you can choose to ignore it if you like--You may have noticed that companies that dont make screw ups,dont get the crap kicked out of them.
How many other shares on the NXZ have had a similar public warning .(resulting in a $500,000 compensation)

If the results are great then IM sure things will be tickity boo-but if not you may want to seriously question whether management is capable of properly selling a great product to the market without more screw ups.

[winner69]

Because it points towards incompetence of the management (they are getting audited as well)--This is not an isolated incident--you can choose to ignore it if you like--You may have noticed that companies that dont make screw ups,dont get the crap kicked out of them.
How many other shares on the NXZ have had a similar public warning .(resulting in a $500,000 compensation)

If the results are great then IM sure things will be tickity boo-but if not you may want to seriously question whether management is capable of properly selling a great product to the market.

Remember, in the eyes of DD et all 'successful commercialisation' is bringing a product out of the lab and getting it used. That's what gives them their thrills. Profit does not come into the equation.

Probably with that mantra corporate governance is low on the list of priorities as well

[Dentie]

I'm amazed at the sheer number of sites that appear on the net (via Google alerts) when there is perceived "negative" based announcements like yesterday's....compared to just a few sites when there are "positive" based announcements.

In fact, it is the same with the TV news each night....they always start with wars, floods, earthquakes, airplane - train and car crashes, tornado's, murders, child molestations etc etc etc and then - if there is room at the end, they might mention about some of the good things happening.

It's like we are constantly looking for reasons not to do something instead of why we should do something.

oooops, am I off topic here?

[Minerbarejet]

There's a few rumours floating around as to why they might have extra money.
#1 is that they've started selling advertising space on the boxes of the free kits they were handing out which was snapped up by the large pharmaceuticals.
#2 Is that they've actually patented a new process for constructing the cardboard boxes for the free kits they hand out, which is so efficient they're making a killing selling the rights to pizza shops.
#3 Is that DD is renting out his Lambo and holding fundraising BBQ's with all proceeds going to PEB
#4 Is that they're actually starting to make some real progress :scared:

Would you like salt on you eggs this morning Miner?Numbers 1,2 and 3 will require salt. I have a good supply but thanks anyway.
Number 4 will require champagne to poach the eggs in.:)

[Dentie]

Because it points towards incompetence of the management (they are getting audited as well)--This is not an isolated incident--you can choose to ignore it if you like--You may have noticed that companies that dont make screw ups,dont get the crap kicked out of them.
How many other shares on the NXZ have had a similar public warning .(resulting in a $500,000 compensation)

If the results are great then IM sure things will be tickity boo-but if not you may want to seriously question whether management is capable of properly selling a great product to the market without more screw ups.

Stop being a sensationalist Skid. You make it sound like the audit has been imposed on PEB. Yesterday's announcement reads...

"Meeting continuous disclosure obligations remains a priority for Pacific Edge’s Board and management and it has since undertaken an audit review of processes and policies and implemented recommendations".

The announcement also included...

"This approval requirement, which Pacific Edge has been advised is usual practice in the US market, led to a delay between signing of the agreements and disclosure to the NZX".

I wonder how many other NZ companies have fallen into this trap and, importantly, whether the FMA have investigated those companies?

I also wonder what sparked the FMA to investigate in the first place? Was it a disgruntled shareholder who sold prior to the big climb who was upset at missing out ... sort of like "Find anything you can to justify some compensation".

Next time the price drops like a stone, maybe I'll go to the FMA ....

[skid]

It happened a while back--doubt if it was a disgruntled share holder--maybe they pay more attention to companies who have made announcements and had to retract them because of a mistake--I would venture to say that other NZ companies would have had the experience to not have fallen into that trap--Trading halt--remember?--pretty basic stuff for a listed company.

Anyway -water under the bridge now

PS-fair enough on audit comment--:)

[Xerof]

Its a very good point Dentie - who knew they delayed announcing? I remember there was comment at the time about what rotten luck it was for "shareholder X" selling just prior to such good announcements. My memory doesn't go beyond yesterdays breakfast menu when it comes to names, but it's probably still on the threads. Anyhoo, I suspect their broker got it in the neck for not having the "right" information ahead of the rest of us:D

[TimmyTP]

Remember, in the eyes of DD et all 'successful commercialisation' is bringing a product out of the lab and getting it used. That's what gives them their thrills. Profit does not come into the equation.

Probably with that mantra corporate governance is low on the list of priorities as well
This has reminded me I never thanked you for your recommendation, somewhere on this forum, for John Kay's book Obliquity. I wonder if his recount of James Black's history will turn out to be relevant here. Regardless, thank you for pointing me in that very interesting direction.

[skid]

A question for you accountants out there -Is-knowing that they have around 12mil in cash enough to get a rough idea of how they are doing--I realize we dont know if they have collected anything owed but still an approximate guess?--In terms of additional sales etc.

[winner69]

A question for you accountants out there -Is-knowing that they have around 12mil in cash enough to get a rough idea of how they are doing--I realize we dont know if they have collected anything owed but still an approximate guess?--In terms of additional sales etc.

skid - you seem pretty clever sort

Here is your homework

Below is a shortened form PEBs Cash Flow statement for H1 showing how they went from $20m cash to $14m. You fill in what the numbers for H2 might be and fiddle around with them until you get $12m (the red numbers are cash out)

The numbers I have put in H2 are all the same as H1 except for the Cash from Customers line. If everything is the same then that has to be $3,400k ($3.4 million). Good eh (Not my estimates but just put in to show you how it might turn out)

Have a play around with a few numbers and see what you get - like if expenses are less cash from customers could be more. We'll make an accountant out of you yet mate

Note - Cash from Customers does not always equal reported Revenues (Remember that debate)

All in $000

[Tsuba]

When is MAC and Shnaps aloud back on deck ?

[Xerof]

You could take that number in two different ways:

1. they have 12m in cash NOW
2. in 2013, they raised funds from investors, and 'allocated' 12m for marketing, of which we don't know how much is left

It's another of those 'tens of thousands of TESTS' comments, which was taken to be SALES by those with a fail grade in basic comprehension

one more sleep

[Xerof]

Winner, nice lesson

Expenses are most probably a lot higher, due to ramping up of staff in USA? 3,400 therefore would be conservative

but see my last post re the voracity of the 12m cash figure assumption!!

[Minerbarejet]

Its taken all day but there is a FOMO trade at last.

[Mista_Trix]

Tight ship.

No volume either way.

[RTM]

Of course there is a seller as well as a buyer.


Its taken all day but there is a FOMO trade at last.

[Dentie]

Winner, nice lesson

Expenses are most probably a lot higher, due to ramping up of staff in USA? 3,400 therefore would be conservative

but see my last post re the voracity of the 12m cash figure assumption!!

And can I suggest "Interest" may well be lower....

[skid]

a grand total of $3702 worth--must be a record---thought we might have a ''no hitter'' for awhile there---like the ancient war days where the two sides just sit there staring at the other from across the field.

Seems like the big majority are in the 3.4 area----I think even tomorrow the jury will still be out on where this puppy is going--(obviously more volume though)-----In terms of--- heads -It will rocket one way or the other---or tails--- it will carry on more or less sideways (perhaps after a small flurry)--Ill go for tails

Unless they forget to make the announcement:):)

[Joshuatree]

Sold most of my shares way back for vgood profit and the residual went today. Continuing to tidy up my portfolio and don't have the conviction others have at the mo. Goodluck to believers.

[psychic]

Its a very good point Dentie - who knew they delayed announcing? I remember there was comment at the time about what rotten luck it was for "shareholder X" selling just prior to such good announcements. My memory doesn't go beyond yesterdays breakfast menu when it comes to names, but it's probably still on the threads. Anyhoo, I suspect their broker got it in the neck for not having the "right" information ahead of the rest of us:D

Your memory serves you well Xerof.
My reading of all this is that a couple of big players got it wrong, sold and had egg on face. (ie read ACC sold 405k shares pre announcement, Harbour Asset had also been selling ) Somehow they found out that the Fedmed deal had been signed a few days earlier and clutched at it.
I reckon it's just BS.

There was no advantage to PE in delaying the announcement and the inference that they were manipulating things is just rubbish.

[psychic]

I've subscribed to this (to me - incredibly boring) daily news alert for yonks. First time PE has featured. The news is spreading..

http://www.urotoday.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=1160&utm_source=newsletter_2701&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=uroalerts-oncology-daily

[Dentie]

Your memory serves you well Xerof.
My reading of all this is that a couple of big players got it wrong, sold and had egg on face. (ie read ACC sold 405k shares pre announcement, Harbour Asset had also been selling ) Somehow they found out that the Fedmed deal had been signed a few days earlier and clutched at it.
I reckon it's just BS.

There was no advantage to PE in delaying the announcement and the inference that they were manipulating things is just rubbish.

But how did they (ACC, Harbour or even the FMA themselves) find out? You'd think an OIA request would show that ...but I think that would be a waste of time. One could just about guarantee the critical info would be blacked out (using the Privacy Act to justify).

Would be interesting (entertaining even) to know. Where's Balance when you need him/her? This would be right up his/her alley.

Roll on tomorrow....if the numbers are good, it will be "the FMA who?".

[Minerbarejet]

I've subscribed to this (to me - incredibly boring) daily news alert for yonks. First time PE has featured. The news is spreading..

http://www.urotoday.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=1160&utm_source=newsletter_2701&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=uroalerts-oncology-daily
Another one this morning , its on medical.net.
and yes, skid, you can get it off the home page by searching cxbladder.
As an aside there were 842 people visiting the site when I was there.
Better keep those media people on.:)

Re the FMA: Ask the guy who was in the restaurant and jumped in the Lambo.He seems to know everything.:)

[winner69]

Just remember guys and gals ....it's the words that matter

The numbers don't mean much at all

Believe the story

[winner69]

Cold morning in Dunedin and late to work .......or don't scientists start work until late in the morning..

[trader_jackson]

Awaiting results... Things could get passionate today... 9 or 9:30?

[nextbigthing]

They're up

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/213896.pdf

[Dentie]

Look at the cash on hand...

...CMS & VA long and drawn out process (uggghhh!)

[pierre]

Look at the cash on hand...

Yes - but no mention of needing any more this year...yet!

[trader_jackson]

Looks good to me... what does everyone else thing? Bad, Ok, Good or Great?

[Dentie]

Yes - but no mention of needing any more this year...yet!

Agreed ... I was referring to the other day's statement ($12m now)

[nextbigthing]

Looks good to me... what does everyone else thing? Bad, Ok, Good or Great?

Two years to get $1.9M in sales with cash on hand dwindling rapidly. Yikes. Cap raising anyone?

But hey, sales revenue is up 1208%. That will make a great headline. Believe the story as Winner would say.

[Minerbarejet]

Better than Edison.
2.5 mil in trade receivables as an asset would change to cash on hand if they got paid. Now is that Medicare or what. That is roughly 5000 tests unpaid as yet. Gone up quite a bit too so lab throughput obviously on the rise.
Not too shabby, IMHO

[pierre]

Disregarding the earlier battles about who said what about how many tests the overall picture looks pretty positive to me.

Sales revenue up from $145K to almost $2m is certainly trending in the right direction. There's still a long way to go though to reach the $100m forecast in the 5th full year of trading - and no indication of when the clock starts ticking. When is the first full year of trading?

New products, new markets, new commercial initiatives, a team of sales people active in the US - what's not to like?

Only question is how much more cash they will need and when.

Almost everything available at 73cents this morning is gone - looks like SP could move a bit higher.

[trader_jackson]

Yes I think a capital raising could be needed end of the year, but they are still progressing dramatically... Who knows, maybe they could be like Xero, where just as questions about cash are beginning to creep in, they suddenly get a huge injection of cash from someone...

[Trader101]

Do not forget the trade receivables of $2,584,000 which I suspect are sales invoiced but not paid.

[trader_jackson]

Actual sales of $1.9m, I thought the consensus was for $3.2m? (or was this for overall revenue including grants etc?)... commentary/presentation looks good and they continue to reiterate a 100m target is achievable

[Xerof]

12m cash quote from ODT was therefore number 2 interpretation in my earlier post (12m was set aside for marketing)

Research Grant income a significant portion of the income line, BUT, a nice lift in receivables meaning some of those agreements are gaining traction. And Medicare WONT be included IMO (they didn't last year, so wouldn't change that without a note to accounts)

I see the only change in accounting policy is to accrue the Research Grant, rather than count when cash received, however, they state the difference is immaterial

Average result IMO but progress. I'll buy into a CR is there is one.

[trader_jackson]

The buy orders are flowing in...

[skid]

Ive got no link on anz --could someone kindly put it up?

[Xerof]

go to NZX skid - there are 4 items

[Slam dunk]

Does anyone know if there is a conference call we can join? If yes, can you please provide the details. Thanks :)

[Minerbarejet]

Does anyone know if there is a conference call we can join? If yes, can you please provide the details. Thanks :)If its like the last one it will be available after the fact as a video on the PEB website with a written transcript a bit later.
Dont think you can join in , yet.

[trader_jackson]

Seems to be a few people that don't have patience (as in a few people jumping on the bandwagon to sell)

[winner69]

MAC will be happy with this. Will validate his DCF valuation.

Where is MAC?

[Slam dunk]

If its like the last one it will be available after the fact as a video on the PEB website with a written transcript a bit later.
Dont think you can join in , yet.

Thanks Miner

[trader_jackson]

Capital raising... https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/213911.pdf

0.61! per share, what does everyone thing? 2 shares for every 11...

What does everyone think?

[Harvey Specter]

Yes - but no mention of needing any more this year...yet!


Yes I think a capital raising could be needed end of the year, but they are still progressing dramatically... Who knows, maybe they could be like Xero, where just as questions about cash are beginning to creep in, they suddenly get a huge injection of cash from someone...Cash burn was $13m and they have just under $8m in the bank. Sales are growing but not sure if they are growing quick enough to fend off a capital raising.

EDIT: annoucned $35m captial raise.

[nextbigthing]

MAC will be happy with this. Will validate his DCF valuation.

Where is MAC?

Lol Winner. You're a stirrer mate.

Good opportunity to pick up some shares in a strong (1208%) growth company.

[zs_cecil]

I think the year end result is not bad considering its revenue surge in US from 95K to 1.8Mil. I know this is small but it is a good start in US.
I am optimistic about it.
Not sure if the result is good enough for the right issue though.

[Balance]

Entirely predictable.

Next prediction - sp will drift to 62c, held up only by underwriters .

Only company I have seen where receivables are growing more than sales! Leave it to the MAC's of the world to figure that one out. :D :D :D

[skid]

From just skimming I dont see any mention of a time line on KP--I think this has raised more questions than answers ---There will be no shortage of things to talk about for some time.

[Bilbo]

Why didn't they announce the rights issue at the same time as the results. Rights issue announcement came out at 9.55am, 50 minutes after the results. Some people had already entered buy orders based on results announcement. I suspect some of those may have not put in the buy order if they knew the rights offer was coming.

[trader_jackson]

I believe the long term fundamentals are still there, although I find it amazing how many people will sell for a 'quick buck', nice that it is fully underwritten, although I don't think they will have any trouble selling them...

[skid]

Entirely predictable.

Next prediction - sp will drift to 62c, held up only by underwriters .

Only company I have seen where receivables are growing more than sales! Leave it to the MAC's of the world to figure that one out. :D :D :D

If it gets below 66-who is going to participate in the capital raising? (thats not a prediction-just a question)

[skid]

Why didn't they announce the rights issue at the same time as the results. Rights issue announcement came out at 9.55am, 50 minutes after the results. Some people had already entered buy orders based on results announcement. I suspect some of those may have not put in the buy order if they knew the rights offer was coming.

Must have been a HICCUP

[skid]

Looks like for now its ''back to the sixties''

one big seller

[Balance]

Entirely predictable.

Next prediction - sp will drift to 62c, held up only by underwriters .

Only company I have seen where receivables are growing more than sales! Leave it to the MAC's of the world to figure that one out. :D :D :D

Bye bye sp as it crashes towards 62c.

Why does PEB remind me so much of Wellington Drive in its early days? Plenty of sizzle about huge market potential, huge revenue goals, lots of buzz words like 'excite' and lots of capital raisings.

[skid]

For the true believers --this is your chance--just after announcements are often a knee jerk response

[skid]

Big seller has been cleared--I hope it was one of you supporters that got the sale--should stabilize somewhat now

[trader_jackson]

Could be a good time to get in, all the short sighted sellers come rushing in, creating bargain times which could last for a month or so (until new shares issue is finished), then the market will calm down and (hopefully) recover.

Seems like the market is now fully focused on the rights issue rather than the results (which appear to still be good), the question for me is how many people are willing to 'ride it out'..., in the long term, a capital raising isn't a bad idea (I would think)

[Schrodinger]

I would strongly caution buying and looking at the results in closer detail. As somebody mentioned previously the KP has not been mentioned which is an obvious red flag. Other things of note include the promise of " we will have enough money from our last capital raise to take us through to profitability" I read through the presentation and noted amazing statements such as we are now beginning to understand the U.S. Health market as a key achievement. Some of you more homely investors will like that but it is a rather amusing way of saying this is bloody hard work. Now comparing their revenue to valuation is a strong red flag if you look a company like VMob who have an eighth of the valuation but double the revenu. Balance was entirely correct with his forecast and I am still comfortable with my own present valuation of 50-80m. or roughly 20 something cents. They have less than 6 or 7 months cash left depending on the new gun sales people and revenue growth. Expecting this to drift near 50c or below.

[Balance]

Underwriter stepping in to support sp? Entirely predictable.

Watching the big holders and 'insiders' - will they sell down like they did last capital raising?

[Minerbarejet]

Must have been a HICCUP
Just be glad they didnt announce it AFTER 10.00am then the FMA would have had another fiasco on their hands.
See balance is back, should liven things up a bit!:)

[Joshuatree]

MAC will be happy with this. Will validate his DCF valuation.

Where is MAC? MAC and Snaps banned No idea how long.

[trader_jackson]

Seem to be some big buyers coming to the party.... Interesting times ahead, I will be watching closely today (and waiting for Arvida results!)

[nextbigthing]

MAC and Snaps banned No idea how long.

4 days from when it happened.

[Xerof]

Why didn't they announce the rights issue at the same time as the results. Rights issue announcement came out at 9.55am, 50 minutes after the results. Some people had already entered buy orders based on results announcement. I suspect some of those may have not put in the buy order if they knew the rights offer was coming.Don't worry, the FMA will seek reimbursement for them:D
and right on cue welcome back balance.

[nextbigthing]

Seem to be some big buyers coming to the party.... Interesting times ahead, I will be watching closely today (and waiting for Arvida results!)

David Darling is that you?

[trader_jackson]

I don't think my account has been hacked :cool:

[Xerof]

I don't think my account has been hacked :cool:take a wee test to make sure

[skid]

4 days from when it happened.

Im sure we will hear from him--This is where ''the rubber meets the road'' for long term investors to test their patience--
Most were expecting around 3.4mil as far as I could tell--accounting can be confusing but it doesnt appear they have made it at this stage.

That,along with a capital raising(all those salesmen and now the ads)will put that to the test for some.

What else do we have to go on in terms of KP trials other than that prediction that sounded more like a statement from Edison.

[Balance]

Now let me get this right :

So PEB can keep reducing their expectations and still meet expectations?

Competition does not stand still in the shadows.

Likewise the cash PEB has does not last forever if the timeline to the fabled $100m keeps getting pushed out further and further.

Entirely predictable.

Now they are going to beef up sales staff to burn more cash - when there is bugger all evidence of real progress against their previous assertions/expectations.

Remember CMS coverage by August 2014?

Generating tens of thousands of tests for no revenues in the name of 'progress' and selling thousands of tests for 'receivables' - very unique take on progress by PEB devotees.

[benjitara]

I've got mixed feeling regarding the reports.... I do think that the USA progress is healthy and over the next 3-5 months we'll most probably see a few announcements regarding Kaiser and Vets services (which wouldn't hurt their credibility).
The Asian expansion is a interesting addition and I actually would have liked for them to focus more on the initial USA growth than this. Almost seems like they've found out how hard it is to penetrate the USA and are now looking to diversify...
But you've got to remember they have an impressive array of patents across the world now and all markets will produce good revenue streams for them going forward.....
I believe, at this stage i'll take up the rights and await further favourable announcements in coming months.

[skid]

I think (as a strategy,they should have waited to announce the capital raising) For the SP to find a ''settling'' place.
That way if things did take a turn down (through 66) they could still offer at below that and get the much needed cash,thus avoiding the potential of no one coming on board at above the SP --unless they can change it,but that would not be a good look.

[nextbigthing]

PEB have been saying that sales are tracking to expectations. Yet in their 2013 cap raise they say;


“The Board is fully confident that the funds being raised will be sufficient to cover operating expenses until Pacific Edge achieves profitability."


here's the link
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/242760

That doesn't quite match up. Better try and find a Lambo driver.

[Balance]

I think (as a strategy,they should have waited to announce the capital raising) For the SP to find a ''settling'' place.
That way if things did take a turn down (through 66) they could still offer at below that and get the much needed cash,thus avoiding the potential of no one coming on board at above the SP --unless they can change it,but that would not be a good look.

Companies announce their results and capital raisings at the same time.

Something smells.

Guess what smells?

[skid]

Meanwhile we will have to keep an eye on the ads--What they really need is 3rd party reporting the benefits rather than paid PR. (not to say they shouldnt go on promoting,but obviously the former would be far more beneficial.

[skid]

If I was Genomics -this is when I would be going for a bargan to complete the stable.

[winner69]

Skid - I updated yesterdays homework for you

Doesn't look as healthy as yesterday now is. Don't believe what you read in the paper

You could have a go at another half year (H1 16) to see what it would look like in 6 months time

[winner69]

US markets reach new highs so the worlds feeling happy

NZ as always an exception. The top of the losers board today comprises MAD, MOA, PEB, TTK and VIL (heck RAK not on the list)

Is PEB in good company or is the market just stupid

[Dentie]

US markets reach new highs so the worlds feeling happy

NZ as always an exception. The top of the losers board today comprises MAD, MOA, PEB, TTK and VIL (heck RAK not on the list)

Is PEB in good company or is the market just stupid

One small difference here Winner.... our Kiwi market hasn't had the benefit of 3 lots of QE by the RBNZ!

So, as for the "stupidity", well......

[trader_jackson]

Well the market has spoken... clearly lost confidence in PEB, although it could be due to capital raising possible alarming some, hence the 'dumping' of shares today (or at least that is how I am seeing it)

[Balance]

Underwriter stepping in to support sp? Entirely predictable.

Watching the big holders and 'insiders' - will they sell down like they did last capital raising?

Sp sliding towards 62 cents fast - very fast as underwriter has run out of support firepower?

Big holders deciding to bail out as it is becoming clear there is another Wellington Drive in the making?

Notice how the bids support of 150k and 250k at 67c and 66c were taken out?

[Balance]

Well I just joined sharetrader, as I am quite an enthusiastic investor in shares (although young - so more of a buy and hold investor), and I have watched this thread with great interest over the past few months (interesting the different ideas everyone has). I personally believe that next week Thursday will be a make or break day for Pacific Edge, I think it is going to give everyone an idea as to if their product(s) can be sold, or not. I'm possibly not quite as optimistic as MAC, but I do believe that, should things turn out well (as I am cautiously confident they will), the share price could be comfortably over $1 by end of next month.

Make or break day?

Looks like it is break day - broken down as the numbers and the capital raising do not measure up to the hype.

Lesson learnt for newies - there are rampers on this thread, and there are those who spoke, were shouted down and are happy to let the rampers make fools of themselves.

The rampers have gone dead quiet.

[Beagle]

PEB have been saying that sales are tracking to expectations. Yet in their 2013 cap raise they say;


“The Board is fully confident that the funds being raised will be sufficient to cover operating expenses until Pacific Edge achieves profitability."


here's the link
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/242760

That doesn't quite match up. Better try and find a Lambo driver.

Their credibility is very much in question now, no doubt about that.

[nextbigthing]

Who's underwriting?

[Schrodinger]

I thought all you had to do was enter the US market and sales would flow. Whats so hard team?

[Dentie]

Sp sliding towards 62 cents fast - very fast as underwriter has run out of support firepower?

Big holders deciding to bail out as it is becoming clear there is another Wellington Drive in the making?

Notice how the bids support of 150k and 250k at 67c and 66c were taken out?

With the rights issue at .61c...it is completely understandable the SP will head to that level as existing holders sell and use the profit to fund the "issue". If the price starts dropping below .61c - then I may agree with your down ramping sentiment.

Again - if there is large volume selling BELOW .61c then maybe you can use the word "bail" and "WDT" in the same sentence.

Why would you hold your Bid at .66 - .67 if there was a good chance at buying around .61c? There are plenty of traders who would scratch and bite their way to a 1c profit.

[Balance]

Their credibility is very much in question now, no doubt about that.

It has been in question for quite a while, Roger.

Been there for those of us, who hold the company and management to account for their many bullish assertions and hype, to see.

Their mantra of '$100m' now rings hollow.

[Balance]

With the rights issue at .61c...it is completely understandable the SP will head to that level as existing holders sell and use the profit to fund the "issue". If the price starts dropping below .61c - then I may agree with your down ramping sentiment.

Again - if there is large volume selling BELOW .61c then maybe you can use the word "bail" and "WDT" in the same sentence.

Why would you hold your Bid at .66 - .67 if there was a good chance at buying around .61c? There are plenty of traders who would scratch and bite their way to a 1c profit.

Where are the traders then?

And it is not true that existing holders sell and use the profit (profit? More like LOSSES now for many) to fund rights issue - have a look at other rights issue (eg. KPG)

Successful companies do rights issue at trending higher and/or strong share prices. Companies which desperately need capital do so with declining share prices.

Everything that some of us have predicted about this company is coming true - sad but inevitable as it is all for all who choose to see, rather than wear rose-tinted glasses.

[Dentie]

Make or break day?

Looks like it is break day - broken down as the numbers and the capital raising do not measure up to the hype.

Lesson learnt for newies - there are rampers on this thread, and there are those who spoke, were shouted down and are happy to let the rampers make fools of themselves.

The rampers have gone dead quiet.

You were the one who went dead quiet Balance - everyone wondered where you got to. I would suggest you weren't that confident that PEB wouldn't deliver a golden egg so you kept your powder dry - just in case. Gave yourself more time to rehearse what you were going to say on here if PEB didn't deliver.

I look forward to taking a historical view in the next few years to see if indeed PEB can be compared with WDT's performance....

If I am termed a fool because I believe in what PEB has to offer - then I'm a happy fool.

[Balance]

You were the one who went dead quiet Balance - everyone wondered where you got to. I would suggest you weren't that confident that PEB wouldn't deliver a golden egg so you kept your powder dry - just in case. Gave yourself more time to rehearse what you were going to say on here if PEB didn't deliver.

I look forward to taking a historical view in the next few years to see if indeed PEB can be compared with WDT's performance....

If I am termed a fool because I believe in what PEB has to offer - then I'm a happy fool.

There is an old saying 'Do not suffer fools because you will become the fool.' Worth noting.

I went quiet knowing full well what PEB was going to do - check my postings.

Just cannot be bothered with arguing with the ramping trolls and their banal postings any further.

They actually believed PEB can comfortably reach profitability without further capital raisings!

As George Gregan will say ' 5 more years!'

Now I have my say.

And it's "I TOLD YOU SO'. :D

[dagoldtoof]

I like the product , aware when purchased it would takes years to gain good sales and traction in USA...Rate it along with FPH early days...Not surprised market is not happy, looking quite bearish.....have done some profit taking recently, but holding PEB....

[Balance]

Pacific Edge have advised that they have sufficient cash on hand through to profitability quite recently, but then perhaps some folk think they have better access to company accounting and internal forecasting than the Pacific Edge CFO.

The analysts also, whom both are undoubtedly in frequent contact with the company, have also reported that cashflows are more than adequate.

And, of course, those of us whom passed high school math, can calculate that cash holdings plus Callahan grants is adequate through to FY16, irrespective really of contribution from revenue income.

Pacific Edge are one of the best capitalised pre-profitable companies on the NZX.

Case in point.

[winner69]

Case in point.

Seems $35m new cash is an awful lot when so close to profitability, doesn't it Balance?

Must have an acquisition in mind.

[Harvey Specter]

Seems $35m new cash is an awful lot when so close to profitability, doesn't it Balance?That was my thought

[trader_jackson]

They must have a serious push... because it is a fair bit, but potentially required to make a 'big effort'

[Dentie]

Seems $35m new cash is an awful lot when so close to profitability, doesn't it Balance?

Must have an acquisition in mind.

Thought I heard down the pub the other night they were looking to take over Abbot - or was it Genome... anyway, I remember laughing at the time.

[Bilbo]

Looks to me like the $100m in accumulated losses will happen well before the $100m in revenue :)

[skid]

So where was FED Med-ACPN-Stratose and Multiplan? They have signed up--Are they waiting for the results of KP program?-(and who are they using in the mean time?)-That will be 2016--Edison must have been in discussions to have stated that.

It appears that the trial and hopefully CMS coverage is of crucial importance now--But of course there is as always so much we dont know.

At the moment they appear vulnerable so the capital raising is important and they appear to have ,at least temporarily to have lost investor confidence---And yet they have this great product--They could really do with a ''Xero''type investor partner at this stage.

I didnt want to mention in the heat of the announcement but for a while Ive had my doubts about targeting Urologists instead of doctors for an ''initial'' test--I would have thought that it would be the perfect solution (after blood tests)to rule out an expensive specialist.

Anyway, its more of a ''getting through this'' than ''full steam ahead'' (it seems)

Ill say it for Mac--''Its the Kaiser report and coverage that will bring sales''--Its just to bad its farther off than we thought--(and of course the doubts get harder to dispel as time goes on)

[Wolf]

Seems $35m new cash is an awful lot when so close to profitability, doesn't it Balance?

Must have an acquisition in mind.

Heap of cash alright.
I'm not sure why they would do an acquisition, they're struggling to sell CxBladder as it is.
With a lot in the "pipeline".

More likely trying to ramp up sales/ realised profitability is a while off and decided to raise cash while there's still some support.

[nextbigthing]

Why all that cash? Apparently so they can start paying dividends. Keep the shareprice up based on 'yield'.

[Minerbarejet]

Why all that cash? Apparently so they can start paying dividends. Keep the shareprice up based on 'yield'.
Makes perfect sense NBT
ROFLMAO:lol:

[Tsuba]

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20150527/Study-shows-superiority-of-Cxbladder-Detect-over-other-non-invasive-bladder-cancer-diagnostic-tool.aspx

My apologies if this has already been posted.

[skid]

Has'nt been a great week for PEB--3 wacks in a few days---and no one around to defend them...

How did you know it was 4 days NBT?--It was a week last time--(maybe it merited less due to the importance of reporting season?)

Miner--Looks like you called it in terms of rockets rather than the''more of the same'' I thought (unless this is just the initial flurry?)

Gonna be hard for those just getting home from work--could be alot worse--my first foray into PEB was just before the announcement before last--I got out by the skin of my teeth with a 10% loss( got worse after)...

For those who bought today ..welcome aboard--theres never a dull moment around here.

[trader_jackson]

Well... the end of the trading day, finished at 66 cents down 8.3%. What seemed to be reasonably good results was unfortunately overshadowed by a capital raising at 61 cents, sending almost 1.8m shares "running for the high hills" (although I don't think many would have made a profit selling at that price). I am a 'believer' in the PEB story, their science is proven to work, they just need to sell it.

At the end of the day, good things do take time. In my view, its a game of patience.

[Dentie]

Gee, you would think this "young growing company" should have known better eh ....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11456046&ref=newsl_afternoonnewsdirect_J20080609_142008_171 6_1129_825738151

[Dentie]

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20150527/Study-shows-superiority-of-Cxbladder-Detect-over-other-non-invasive-bladder-cancer-diagnostic-tool.aspx

My apologies if this has already been posted.

Oh God...look at the source...must be ramping!

[Dentie]

Well... the end of the trading day, finished at 66 cents down 8.3%. What seemed to be reasonably good results was unfortunately overshadowed by a capital raising at 61 cents, sending almost 1.8m shares "running for the high hills" (although I don't think many would have made a profit selling at that price). I am a 'believer' in the PEB story, their science is proven to work, they just need to sell it.

At the end of the day, good things do take time. In my view, its a game of patience.

On ya mate!!

I don't know why people go negative just because the words "capital raising" are used (Ignorance?). I see it as being expected and completely normal commercial behaviour for a company like PEB. If it was a well established company trying to clean up their balance sheet, I would be a lot more concerned.

Like it or not, they have to invest to reach their lofty (& obtainable) goals and I would prefer them to get the dosh from their shareholders rather than going down the "debt" line. If they start doing that - then I'm out!

Perhaps if they use the word "invest" instead of "CR"?

[Wolf]

Well... the end of the trading day, finished at 66 cents down 8.3%. What seemed to be reasonably good results was unfortunately overshadowed by a capital raising at 61 cents, sending almost 1.8m shares "running for the high hills" (although I don't think many would have made a profit selling at that price). I am a 'believer' in the PEB story, their science is proven to work, they just need to sell it.

At the end of the day, good things do take time. In my view, its a game of patience.

What do you think is good about the results?

[trader_jackson]

The 1208% increase in sales revenue, with alot of that appearing to be from the US, while not stand out amazing, I think it is promising.

And as with any growth company, it is more about the commentary, which broadly seems positive. In case anyone has forgotten, it still points out that they making "good progress" towards $100m gross revenue (ie they have not turned around and admitted defeat... at least not yet)

[couta1]

Well... the end of the trading day, finished at 66 cents down 8.3%. What seemed to be reasonably good results was unfortunately overshadowed by a capital raising at 61 cents, sending almost 1.8m shares "running for the high hills" (although I don't think many would have made a profit selling at that price). I am a 'believer' in the PEB story, their science is proven to work, they just need to sell it.

At the end of the day, good things do take time. In my view, its a game of patience.
Lot of noise from non holders as is the usual on this thread, my 50k shares are in the bottom 5 year drawer. Do i believe PEB will make it in the long run? sure do but hey im a medical dude so I understand the mindset required to make it in this industry,this is best of breed product here with patents. Sure sales are now what's needed to reach the goal but at the end of the day good products sell themselves once all the other important groundwork is put in place. As always the panickers will panic and sell out for a loss (I'm sure we have all been there before) but as you say its a game of patience and I have learnt that a lot of it is required to stay in the market.

[benjitara]

I do think people are reading a little too much into the revenue column at the moment. What we know is that if they can obtain confidence through their user programmes being successful then you'll see the test become part of protocol for a number of large organisations. As of yet Pacific edge has a number of user programmes under-way or near completion. I see these as the most important avenue to their lofty sales targets. User programmes that turn into a "yes, we'll make it a part of how we want others to proceed with their patients" will break their "revenue dam" wide open. That's where the growth is. If, in the next 12 months we see a large number of user programmes come and go and have little take-up or positive announcements regarding their feelings towards the test then I can confidently say that, while PEB has a great product they are unable to sell it. PEB, in my mind haven't reached that point yet and I remain cautiously confident we'll see positive signs over the next 6 months.

[Crash Test Dummy]

7372http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=7367&d=1432602183

[Joshuatree]

Parallels with Xero. Hope they both make it but too risky for me atp.

[trader_jackson]

In many ways, it is very different to Xero, much smaller, and not software.

[trader_jackson]

Just had a listen to the conference call (who else has?) seems like their expansion into South East Asia could result in a revision up of their $100m forecast (which even I realize is quite 'lofty')... David does seem to have very, very good knowledge on basically every part of the business, which some may expect (which is understandable), but it still gives me confidence.

[Joshuatree]

Parallel in Growing pains

[Minerbarejet]

Just had a listen to the conference call (who else has?) seems like their expansion into South East Asia could result in a revision up of their $100m forecast (which even I realize is quite 'lofty')... David does seem to have very, very good knowledge on basically every part of the business, which some may expect (which is understandable), but it still gives me confidence.
Waiting for the typist to finish deciphering and getting a transcript up.

Someone on hotcopper just suggested that maybe PEB is going to make an offer on CDY. Hair tonic should provide a bit more growth.
Wouldnt need to pay royalties either.:)

The bit that hoses me off is the receivables going up by a million.
Why are we subsidising the American Medical System? Sure its an asset, assuming they pay, eventually? Suppose it will flatten out.
Could indicate a large upswing very recently though that hasnt had time to filter through.

And: First KP patients in the next week or so for Triage evaluation-
Triage to be launched USA in June 2015. From presentation.
2+2 says the product needs to be launched before KP can make a start. Make sense?
Lets get on with it shall we.

[Xerof]

Despite DD oft saying they were good questions, I didn't think they were at all. A lot of background colour was indeed added, but no-one really got a direct answer to their question, nor were the questions very penetrating. DD alluded to an earlier briefing, perhaps to Analysts only, at which more searching issues were hopefully raised and answered. But if thats the best our local Analysts can come up with, then I'm afraid I have to rank them in line with our financial journalists.........who in turn are only just above politicians and real estate agents.

but thanks hancocks for posting your thoughts, and the link, much appreciated.

I get the feeling they are on the verge, whether its a cliff or not, time will tell.

I'll support them for another year, and take up the rights, but it will need to be serious Moonlight this time next year

[skid]

My opinion is that the results were in-line with the analysts Forsyth Barr ($3.1M) and Edison Research ($3.4M) – total revenue was $4,132,000 including grants and research rebates, that's OK.

We are rolling out a product that has cost a lot of real money to develop. They are expensive tests for insurers because of the development costs, not because they are getting ‘ripped’ and we have still produced this cheaper than any other company could develop; so we have a great advantage there. A lot of the intellectual contribution has been by Pacific Edge Limited, the University of Otago, development grants (e.g. Callaghan Fund) R&D rebates and of course the stalwart angel investors. But a growth opportunity like this takes money and investors with an appropriate risk profile.

7373

It has been a long haul getting this product rolled out, but we definitely are getting there, I wouldn’t get too down in the mouth just yet.

7374

The FMA issue was just unfortunate and I think a public warning and Pacific Edge offering compensation is the best negotiated outcome you could hope for; it was a hiding to nothing and not worth a fight really – opinion against opinion, just look at this thread for an example.

The rights issue was a surprise for two reasons, one 50mins after the results and the amount; however, when you read the documentation – it all fits in my opinion.

The rights issue will provide Pacific Edge with the funding to:

• Expand its sales force in the US from 12 to 18 to service 19 major metro regions in the US

• Complete the evaluation of South East Asia, and if favourable, launch operations in Singapore as an entry point

• Complete the commercialisation of its third and fourth Cxbladder diagnostic tests, Cxbladder Monitor and Cxbladder Predict

• Bring new product technology and product improvements through to its markets

• Strengthen the balance sheet, allowing Pacific Edge to take advantage of any commercial opportunities which arise.


Grow the US business $3.7M FY16 & $4.2M FY17 Implementation of the increased sales force and targeted marketing programs.

Bring Cxbladder Monitor & Cxbladder Predict to the market $1.1M FY16 & $1.3M FY17.

Enter the South East Asian market $0.7M FY16 & $3.1M FY17.

So the above totals $5.5M FY16 & $8.6M FY17 for specific outflows = $14.1M

In FY16, Pacific Edge anticipates net cash outflow including specifically earmarked initiatives and existing operations of $15.2M

$14.1M & $15.2M = $29.3M they 'Pacific Edge' are raising $35M - makes sense.

I think investors are not happy because PEB has said they would not need another capital raising

I personally feel that this cap raising is that they have woken up to the importance of marketing.
and that takes cash..

In terms of sign ups-I dont see much happening till 2016 when Kaiser comes through,but thats just my opinion.

I wonder what the revenue (and Im talking sales-imo grants are just a sideshow)works out to be per salesman.

Do you think targeting urologists instead of doctors is the right approach?

I would be interested to know how long you, or others think it will take to reach their target.

I dont think they are dead in the water like nsome say--but I do think the game has changed considerably--for this year

[Meister]

The rights issue was a surprise for two reasons, one 50mins after the results and the amount

I think you missed the third and most obvious reason it was a surprise - they said they wouldn't need one! I support PEB, and will continue to do so, but this latest announcement definitely has shaken things up. How well can we trust their prior guidance? Or any of their guidance?

They have a great product and I am hopeful that things are just ticking over slower than expected. Things could end up going really well for PEB, but invalid guidance like this is exactly why this thread has so much negativity, and it isn't all misplaced.

I am glad that sales have ramped up somewhat. The product isn't dead, it is early days and we have been shown that it can sell. It is just going to take time. A lot more time than they have been hinting at so far.

[winner69]

Despite DD oft saying they were good questions, I didn't think they were at all. A lot of background colour was indeed added, but no-one really got a direct answer to their question, nor were the questions very penetrating. DD alluded to an earlier briefing, perhaps to Analysts only, at which more searching issues were hopefully raised and answered. But if thats the best our local Analysts can come up with, then I'm afraid I have to rank them in line with our financial journalists.........who in turn are only just above politicians and real estate agents.

but thanks hancocks for posting your thoughts, and the link, much appreciated.

I get the feeling they are on the verge, whether its a cliff or not, time will tell.

I'll support them for another year, and take up the rights, but it will need to be serious Moonlight this time next year

Xerof .....one question was a GREAT question .....and David said the questions were searching and in depth

The future sure going to be transformation

Guru analysts love that word colour eh, must use it more often myself

[Xerof]

Xerof .....one question was a GREAT question .....and David said the questions were searching and in depth

The future sure going to be transformation

Guru analysts love that word colour eh, must use it more often myself

lol, yes, and did I hear the phrase 'tens of thousands of tests"? Yes, I did, as well as "hundreds of thousands of tests" Hartley will have that in print in tomorrows ODT...

that will put a bit of colour in some pallid cheeks

[Intel]

Have always liked Peb's tech and the market opportunity but haven't been a shareholder for a while. Looking from the outside I see some small progress but its the potential for "death by initiative" thats worrying. PEB shouldn't expand into other markets until they've got a proven product with a track record, it becomes an easier sell and less restrictive on capital resource in the earlier days.

They should pump as much resource into the US market + get in a new CEO, preferably a Large pharma exec with connections and nous in the US, someone that can get things done. Although a lot of shareholders may disagree with that, I think it would provide a better outcome for shareholders as DD has not delivered as many would have hoped by now.

No mention of Spain either (perhaps that was already gone?) and it really annoys me when companies don't disclose information (IE THE USAGE CHARTS WITH NO AXIS!!!!!!!) they have no reason not to - It leaves an uneasy feeling that they are afraid of telling the market the true numbers. Tell shareholders so they are more informed I say.

All in all its disappointing for shareholders that more cash is needed but at least you ARE selling product in the US (looking at receipts in the CF statement) which has to be taken with some satisfaction.

Ill continue to sit on the sidelines and wait for better confirmation of adoption and wouldn't be surprised if the SP heads south of 50c in the next 6 months before the next result. I don't think this company at this point in time deserves a valuation of $200m. I reckon the best play would be to wait for the first insurer coverage (if/ when it comes) as the risk return profile will be a lot better than (even though you will miss the initial rise) imho but hope to be proven wrong as medical technologies that can save and improve quality of life should be fast tracked to success.

[winner69]

lol, yes, and did I hear the phrase 'tens of thousands of tests"? Yes, I did, as well as "hundreds of thousands of tests" Hartley will have that in print in tomorrows ODT...

that will put a bit of colour in some pallid cheeks

And was it Hartley who mentioned the 5 year plan to $100m and said suppose 2 years in to it ......and not even chastised by David for mentioning it ......or denial ....so $100m in 3 years now ....just another $97m to go, but transformational businesses can do that easy

[winner69]

......and that word suite seemed to be used often ........exciting stuff

[trader_jackson]

No doubt some analysts research will be out tomorrow, will be interesting to see what their views are, but I agree it is interesting that they made that comment just 2 years ago. However, they probably (well I should hope) have more understanding about just how long their science actually takes to convert into sales (ie the american market, and not just increasing receivables, but cash going in the bank), so I can 'forgive' them in this respect

[blobbles]

Way I see it:

+ Revenue % growth good, revenue probably not enough really. This is where we were expecting them to be last year.
+ Around 3000+ paid tests in the US
+ Enough cash for another 2/3 year.
+ Science being backed up.

- Not enough cash to see through to profitability (as previously guided)
- Further dilution to ~375m shares about to happen. Me thinks 100m won't be enough, they need to aim higher.
- Not tracking to 100m in 3 years as far as I can see. More signups required, more work on the ground in the US in the macro environment, not just the micros, which is where they seem to be concentrating now.
- No significant announcements regarding CMS, Kaiser (hopefully a bit later) or the ex soldiers organisation (forget their name!)
- 35m new money... but how long to profitability? No talk of it now.
- Potential to be distracted in SE Asia, should be all go in the US first. SE Asia is mostly low wage economies, only Singapore has a decent currency conversion and the market is the same size as NZ. Nothing exciting moving to SE Asia as far as I can see, possibly Malaysia as well but the test price would have to go a lot lower methinks. If they were hitting Japan, that would be a different story.

As my minuses outweigh my positives I have a -ve outlook regarding SP. I expect a drop to 62c then if no further announcements possibly drift lower. If they one of the big 3 announcements happens the SP outlook would be very very positive methinks.

[winner69]

So it is $100m in mid 2018

David really excited that NEW investors have done due diligence and are keen to buy in.

Whose selling down? Or maybe just take the money from these keen punters and build that war chest up (new share)

Wow, exciting eh. At least David is


http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201756304

[winner69]

So it seems "In FY16, Pacific Edge anticipates net cash outflow including specifically earmarked initiatives and existing operations of $15.2M"

Sort of implies that revenues won't be that high .... If expenses etc go to $20m sales then $5m

So 2 years to take $5m annual sales to $100m (this $100m in 2018 has been said often with no rebuttal)

[Dentie]

So it is $100m in mid 2018

David really excited that NEW investors have done due diligence and are keen to buy in.

Whose selling down? Or maybe just take the money from these keen punters and build that war chest up (new share)

Wow, exciting eh. At least David is


http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/201756304

Yes, a shame some Kiwi's only look for reasons not to invest in a company. In fact it is a pity they can't see the real story. I am sure there are more sophisticated "external" investors who understand the PEB story and who will buy into PEB once we can push the SP down enough for them.

For example...we always seem to talk of "cash burn" as if it is a bad thing .... putting cash into a black hole with no returning yield. Most of the cash seems to be going to the sales and marketing - which of course is needed to generate the sales. The User programmes take up cash also, but again this is required marketing. The yield will come over time. This is what "investment" is about. Based on some of the comments - how many see their investments into the likes of Kiwisaver as "cash burn"? I would much rather be invested into PEB.

Also, that capital raisings are a bad thing too because they only dilute the other holdings etc. Please tell me how a growth orientated company is supposed to find the necessary capital to fund that growth? It is impossible to do it from the sales revenue in the early stages so apart from winning some grand lottery, there is only equity (capital raising from shareholders) and debt (borrowing from a finance source). Why would you weigh down the company with interest payments while it is trying to grow? This is an absolute no-brainer!

As a shameless self confessed contrarian investor (with an independent thinking brain), I am more than happy with where PEB is and where they are going - based on what I know today. I know the short termers will feel frustrated at the perceived lack of progress ... but good things take time.

As for the SP...I couldn't care less where it is for the next 2 or 3 years...unless something unforeseen happens in the meantime.

[Minerbarejet]

We have just been given the results for the first FULL year of revenue from the US.
This means there are 4 more FY reports to be presented, not three not two but four.
Not a bad effort for the FIRST FULL year based on revenues from Cxbladder DETECT ONLY.
Basically from Americas Choice, Stratose, and Fedmed. Given the 7 month startup window, if applicable, then Multiplan has only contributed 3 months or so to this FY just presented.
Triage should not have this delay with customers already signed up.

[nextbigthing]

Yes, a shame some Kiwi's only look for reasons not to invest in a company. In fact it is a pity they can't see the real story. I am sure there are more sophisticated "external" investors who understand the PEB story and who will buy into PEB once we can push the SP down enough for them.

For example...we always seem to talk of "cash burn" as if it is a bad thing .... putting cash into a black hole with no returning yield. Most of the cash seems to be going to the sales and marketing - which of course is needed to generate the sales. The User programmes take up cash also, but again this is required marketing. The yield will come over time. This is what "investment" is about. Based on some of the comments - how many see their investments into the likes of Kiwisaver as "cash burn"? I would much rather be invested into PEB.

Also, that capital raisings are a bad thing too because they only dilute the other holdings etc. Please tell me how a growth orientated company is supposed to find the necessary capital to fund that growth? It is impossible to do it from the sales revenue in the early stages so apart from winning some grand lottery, there is only equity (capital raising from shareholders) and debt (borrowing from a finance source). Why would you weigh down the company with interest payments while it is trying to grow? This is an absolute no-brainer!

As a shameless self confessed contrarian investor (with an independent thinking brain), I am more than happy with where PEB is and where they are going - based on what I know today. I know the short termers will feel frustrated at the perceived lack of progress ... but good things take time.

As for the SP...I couldn't care less where it is for the next 2 or 3 years...unless something unforeseen happens in the meantime.

Wow Dentie. I can't believe your take on it. Whatever works for you I guess.

At what point would you say enough is enough though and pull the pin?