PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd [Archive] - Page 5

MAC

11-06-2013, 09:46 PM

PEB has dropped to 57c today, not quite the dip I was hoping for in order to heavily top up.

With some potential news on the horizon from PEB am I correctly sensing that the next couple of weeks may represent possibly a good opportunity to buy in before the SP commences a longer term upward trend. Perhaps even a five year trend if PEB's goal of 100M revenues within five years holds.

Would be interested in the views of you all ?

1. Based on David Darlings comments in March in the ODT we should expect an announcement of the commencement of lab operations in the US in July.

2. The AGM is in August, hopefully some sales guidance too.

3. May we soon anticipate an announcement of a second DHB sign up as eluded in the FY13 report commentary. Not to mention the "several parties that PEB are in negotiation with" mentioned in the ODT.

4. What have all those sales staff been doing in the US, perhaps we are soon to hear from them also.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/259167/pacific-edge-has-loss-us-beckons

Dentie

12-06-2013, 06:55 AM

Thanks again Xerof & Sparky ... appreciate the continued learnings ....

MAC

12-06-2013, 11:18 AM

Thanks SparkyTheClown and Hancocks for your wise advice.

JohnnyTheHorse

12-06-2013, 07:17 PM

MAC

12-06-2013, 10:18 PM

I'm a long term investor and wouldn't pretend at being a TA, but you've inspired me to have a play with this, thanks for that.

Not sure how well the technical’s work with local growth stocks, but it seems 54 cents is a 38.2% fibonacci retracement and may also be MA200 in a few days, who knew ?.

Perhaps the answer is 54, just need now to find the question ?

Merc

12-06-2013, 11:18 PM

PEB was one of my two investments a week ago. Reason? Largely the sensible research on this forum.

For me it is a low cost gamble on a company that has gone through the research and development stage, come up with what sounds like a good product, appears to be marketing it well and is all set for the growth stage. There might even be dividends in a year or two - unless these are ploughed back into R&D on the next product which in turn leads to further growth. Seems to be a lot of future potential.

janner

12-06-2013, 11:49 PM

You have got it in one Merc... A low cost gamble for the beginner and the experienced...

Who knows where it will go.. ??.

Minerbarejet

13-06-2013, 07:39 AM

You have got it in one Merc... A low cost gamble for the beginner and the experienced...

Who knows where it will go.. ??. a bit like a rocket launch - a lot of noise at the start and nothing much happening then slowly bit by bit it lifts off accelerating away into the stratosphere and beyond. Alas, some passengers will decide to get off before liftoff, some will jump if it gets too high and others will stay with it into orbit. They will get into a capsule and return to earth with many a tale to tell once they are satisfied with the view.:)
Life on the Edge

Minerbarejet

13-06-2013, 09:58 AM

Heads up - something coming

GR8DAY

13-06-2013, 10:19 AM

PEB investor update presentation:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/176737.pdf

"PEDUSA has set an ambitious sales target for its start-up year in 2013 which it expects to meet ".............NOW THAT'S WHAT WE WANT TO HEAR!! ( wish we knew the majic number tho'..........any guesses?)

AndyLP

13-06-2013, 10:24 AM

Totally agree sparky - I'm personally excited by the tailor made user programs for the large clients:

User Programs are operating in Australia, NZ and the U.S. The extent of the programme is in excess of 2,000 tests in aggregate. Some have successfully completed, validating the utility of Cxbladder in the clinical pathway. Pacific Edge anticipates that a significant proportion of successfully completed User Programs will convert into commercial relationships.

And something concrete for the US

Five new User Programs have been initiated with large urology groups in the U.S. with the tests being processed in the PED USA laboratory

Hoping the price will stay low for a bit longer so I can top up with a few more.

Cheers,
Andy

Schrodinger

13-06-2013, 10:41 AM

55c is a gift, in my opinion. If I hadn't picked up a lot in the early 20s, I'd be buying a bit now.

assuming they have the ability to generate sales....it will be harder than they think

MAC

13-06-2013, 10:47 AM

You do have a genuine longer term concern Schrodinger, I imagine we will see if this risk mitigates somewhat at the end of year sales announcement.

In the meantime have you done any DCF on PEB ?.

I recommend that you do so as to assess the risk/reward position. I hope you will be pleased with the numbers.

I am a happy holder today.

TimmyTP

13-06-2013, 10:58 AM

assuming they have the ability to generate sales....it will be harder than they think
PEB's publications suggest to me that their approach to the sales side has been robust and cautious; they have been building a solid platform and establishing a reputation, now moving steadily to capitalise on that. I see a lot more concrete foundation than shiny façade so far.

Can you offer some insight into why you feel they are underestimating the challenges? Genuinely interested in a reality check if I have been reading all the news with my pink glasses on.

barney

13-06-2013, 10:59 AM

Great to see the company keeping shareholders updated.

I would expect the conclusion of a successful negotiation with Medicare/Medicald would be a real positive.

Although there is a lot of work to be done in making sure the urologists are confident in using cxbladder, the good thing is that there is quite a barrier to new competition. From day one PEB have made sure the science is top notch and that should pay off in the long run.

Minerbarejet

13-06-2013, 11:36 AM

a bit like a rocket launch - a lot of noise at the start and nothing much happening then slowly bit by bit it lifts off accelerating away into the stratosphere and beyond. Alas, some passengers will decide to get off before liftoff, some will jump if it gets too high and others will stay with it into orbit. They will get into a capsule and return to earth with many a tale to tell once they are satisfied with the view.:)
Life on the Edge
T-17 days. Great stuff. All aboard

Merc

13-06-2013, 12:42 PM

Well, if it all comes a cropper, you will need to explain to loved ones that you listened to someone called "Sparky the Clown" on the internet....

To me it seems far safer to listen to a clown, a moose and a galloping major than my parents' share broker or other paid advisors.

When I was first working Dad took me to see his broker and following his advice I invested $100 in each of two companies - Watties and Winstones. Both promptly dropped through the floor. 6 or 7 years later when we were scrapping all barrels to put windows in our house I sold them for much the same price as I bought them for.

Later there was our AMP insurance advisor with his Managed Fund. Naturally this was the start of a recession. In 1995, after a number of years where it failed to meet expectations, we sold out to fund our overseas trip.

Then in 2006 I approached my parents' share broker again with A Plan. Buy $2,000 worth of shares in each of 4 companies starting with my pick - Rymans. That one worked but his recommendation of Sky City as a second one.... immediately dropped in value, fell further in the recession and still not back to what I paid for them. I wasn't certain on his advice so only bought $500 worth.

Learning curve: Their watch list was useful and my having made contact with them meant they were helpful when Dad passed away and his shares went to Mum, but the broker's fee ($75 per transaction) isn't worth it for low value transactions. And I'm not sure who's side they are on when it comes to share transactions.

Plan B is now $3,000 per company using an on-line broker ($30 per transaction) and getting advice from Clowns. Much safer :)

Schrodinger

13-06-2013, 12:59 PM

I really hope they succeed, but I am cautious as there are alot of vested interests in the US market that wont like being shunted aside for a 'new' thing. The larger firms have tremendous lobbying power and will be impossible to fight unless you work with them.

If PEB gets a good partner this will reduce the risk for me, but the US is a funny market and very hard for NZ companies to crack. If they intend to sell the things themselves I see two risks:

They need really good sales people and strategies. The top sales guys are usually working for other guys so how do they get these people.
I am unsure they know the health purchasing environment in the US. Maybe I didnt read the right info but it wont be a case of just rocking up with the product and leaving with a suitcase of cash. The US market doesnt work like that.

By all means invest, but be aware they may grow significanlty slower than forecast.

Schrodinger

13-06-2013, 01:19 PM

So they dont have any financial modelling behind their US expansion? I find that hard to believe. They must have a target in mind for the expansion because they need to have a budget i.e capital management plans...

Thanks for the good points Sparky. Fingers crossed and I will watch with interest!

Merc

13-06-2013, 01:25 PM

lol, thanks for the story. I usually do the opposite of what brokers say (especially the huge ones like Goldmans and JP Morgan). ...

Well whilst I didn't expect them to jump to attention and spends hours analysing a good investment for either $200 or $2,000 I do think they could have paid a little more attention considering my parents' portfolio:

- The first time to encourage a new investor with family history
- The second time as it is highly likely that one day within the next decade I will inherit half of it - and they do have a copy of the power of attorney for mum and it is becoming increasingly likely that my brother and I will have to use it.

The first advice put me off shares for years (went into property instead), the second off relying on their advice and seeking alternative ways of investing (on-line brokers)

The feeling I was left with is that Brokers Fees are far more important than advice like "before you do this consider the economy cycle, it is reasonably likely there will be a significant correction coming soon. Maybe hold off for a bit?"

Minerbarejet

13-06-2013, 01:30 PM

hi Shrodinger,
just a question - have you read all this thread, there is a lot of priceless information throughout. If you go back to #1567 from JohnnytheHorse there is a pretty strong indication of where this is going and it isn't 57 cents in MHO
Cheers

Schrodinger

13-06-2013, 01:33 PM

Merc I think you will find that most brokers dont know what a good business is. Good business: sustainable long term growth + profit potential.

They can all crunch numbers for DCF valuation but struggle to know what businesses have the potential to grow long term. It is better to do the work yourself as you save on fees with the added bonus of becoming more knowledgable

Schrodinger

13-06-2013, 01:35 PM

Yeah various people have directed me to things and that is appreciated.

I find it more useful to sift through corporate waffle (press releases) from companies and get down to nuts and bolts business model analysis.

ocr11

13-06-2013, 01:37 PM

Hey Everyone , Im a holder and have some high hopes for PEB,it has been a good ride so far.
Just wondering what is the fasted way to find out about the announcements , so far am using Google alerts , or see them crop up through my FB ...i see Moosie always quick to the punch especially with CRP.

I dont work in the finance industry so was wondering if there is any better alternatives to what im already doing

Cheers

Huskeez

13-06-2013, 01:55 PM

Or here http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-today?E=NZSE

Merc

13-06-2013, 02:00 PM

Merc I think you will find that most brokers dont know what a good business is. Good business: sustainable long term growth + profit potential.
...

And there is also the life cycle of a business:
- Start Up - investment money gets swallowed by start up costs
- Growth - Dividend returns non-existent or low as cash gets ploughed back into the business resulting in an increase in value
- Stability - Targets met, lack of room to expand, continue doing what they do well without getting too excited about changes for the future and general complacency. Give out good dividends.
- Decline - When times change reducing need for their product or service or the competition comes in a jump ahead.

PEB look like they are in the transition stage from Start Up to Growth. Until they are entrenched in growth mode still a bit of a gamble but the odds are looking good.

ocr11

13-06-2013, 02:01 PM

Awesome , Thanks heaps !

AndyLP

13-06-2013, 02:40 PM

Balance

13-06-2013, 02:51 PM

They have provided financial modelling in the past (like at the 2012 AGM), but have not given any indication of forecast US sales yet. As you will see in the update today, they will provide forecasts soon.

Heard from one of the attendees at the FPH presentation to Goldman Sachs yesterday.

In answer to a question as to how FPH is positioned for the cost cutting and efficiency initiatives happening in the States, FPH replied that any health products and services which cut the costs of existing treatment, increases the effectiveness of diagnosis and treatments are going to benefit enormously.

I apply it to PEB and it's bingo ....

Snow Leopard

13-06-2013, 05:01 PM

I especially liked this line in the update:

"PEDUSA has set an ambitious sales target for its start-up year in 2013 which it expects to meet"

does that actually mean:

"PEDUSA has set an ambitious sales target for its start-up year in 2013 and we think they don't have a snowballs chance in hell of getting near".

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[I once worked for a company where the sales target was set by adding up how many units each salesman said he would sell in the next year. They never came close.]

Dentie

14-06-2013, 07:13 AM

You are too cynical by half!

The sure but steady way they are rolling out suggests they are not trying to hype things.

Cynical? Hmmmm....reviewing a few of PT's posts ...I would suggest devil's advocate at best...but more likely defeatist, stirrer or looking for reason's not to invest.

I'm with Sparky ... PEB have been very deliberate and methodical with the way they are building up this firm. As they move on, there is every reason to suggest they are going to achieve their targets and expectations...as we are. In fact, they are achieving them from what I can see.

Dentie

14-06-2013, 12:00 PM

All opinions expressed here are valid whether for or against, just sort thorough them and discard some, keep the gems.

I have previously seen Pacific Edge's targets and predictions missed and if you have followed the company for a few years you will know what I mean. However, having said that, there is nothing that is posted here that has influenced my assessment and support for this company; I rely on my own research.

The one fact that I’m very aware of is that the only people that really know what’s going on inside Pacific Edge are the management and staff, over the years (12) my relationship and conversations with them have reinforced my opinions that they are a group of the most talented people you could have the pleasure of investing with.

I like to have a try to envision the future because I have an investment in it and I’m an enthusiastic investor when it comes to pacific Edge; if it works out I’m happiness filled, if it turns to crap, then that’s sad but ok too.

Your points have been absorbed Hancock's.

lastmoa

14-06-2013, 01:00 PM

Signs of strength now ;)

I can't quite see what you are seeing.

Balance

14-06-2013, 02:25 PM

Good to have PT douse the irrational exuberance from time to time.

However, one suspects he would do the same with DIL when it was 25 cents.

Snow Leopard

14-06-2013, 08:04 PM

Good to have PT douse the irrational exuberance from time to time.

However, one suspects he would do the same with DIL when it was 25 cents.

I can guarantee that I would have commented on such a use of words.

The last close of DIL at $0.25 was on the 11-Jan-2010 average daily value of shares traded was $5K1 and at that point the're annual results (US$) were:

Revenue: $5M
Operating Loss: $4M7
Market Cap: $22M5

with PEB we are at (Mar-13, NZ$):
Revenue: $515K
Operating Loss: $6M9
Market Cap: $158M9

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

MAC

15-06-2013, 09:12 AM

Dear Mr Tiger,

I also find your comparison of DIL and PEB a little cheeky. As a value investor all it tells me is that at $0.25 DIL was regarded by the market as a very risky venture. That risk has since abated and the stock is now worth $8.00. I’m a happy holder of DIL.

As we know valuing growth stocks is complex and not easy, especially those in the early stages of life.

I’m presently researching CRP. They have recently applied for a mining licence, the traders thus swung the SP around and the market is now telling us that given the present risk CRP is presently worth $0.35 per share. My analysis provides me with a present de-risked value for CRP of $1.75 per share (noting CRP’s de-risked value is $2.00). This gives me a risk/reward ratio of 0.35/1.75 = 5.0 (or 500%). I have not yet decided if this presently represents value as I have not yet finished researching the risks - see CRP thread.

PEB have recently de-risked a little by obtaining US regulatory approvals (CLIA). The traders subsequently swung the SP around, before and after as they do, and now the market is telling us that given the present risk PEB is presently worth around $0.60 per share. My analysis provides me with a present de-risked value for PEB of $1.25 per share and a risk reward ratio of 2.1 (or 210%). IMHO this represents good value.

I am bullish on PEB. They have rolled out their 2011 capital raising development plan on schedule thus far demonstrating capable and committed management, this week we received what seems to be a sound and comprehensive strategy for US sales growth, I am fortunate to have a biochemist in the family who has helped my assessment of the technology risks.

I’ve been waiting for an SP dip to buy more, but I now suspect that boat may have sailed.

I would not be at all surprised to see PEB as a $5 stock at FY16.

Mac

Merc

15-06-2013, 09:40 AM

A standard business analysis tool is the matrix SWOT

Strengths : Weaknesses
:
..............................................
Opportunities : Threats
:

Every human endeavour has both the plusses and the minuses, nothing is a dead cert one way or the other. Thanks Sparky for listing the Weaknesses and Threats. I had thought along similar lines but not in as much detail as you.

The biggest risks are when people don their rose tinted spectacles and deny the negatives exist. When that happens, and it happens surprisingly often in all sorts of areas, my alarm bells go off and I suspect the worst.

Whilst it may go wrong weighing up the pros and cons seem to me to tip the balance into it going well.

Very happy with my decision to invest. Now to sit back, wait for the future and see if I am right.

Dentie

16-06-2013, 10:01 AM

Here is a very interesting article; albeit a tad technical but it can still be understood. I have attached the hyperlink and a couple of interesting snippets from that article. I think that because of the aggressiveness or fast growth rate of bladder cancer, a cheap reliable test really is urgently needed:

National Cancer Institute Article (http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/pdq/screening/bladder/HealthProfessional/page2)

Because bladder cancer is almost never incidentally found at autopsy, the preclinical duration in which it has not yet caused symptoms, but in which it can be detected by cystoscopy, is probably brief. This rapid growth rate is supported by clinical experience and implies that screening would have to be performed at frequent intervals.

The use of cystoscopies and bladder wash/urinary cytologic examinations has proven quite successful in the surveillance and management of patients with previously treated bladder cancers. These means are not practical in individuals without a history of bladder cancer because of expense and morbidity.

Here's another article...

http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/pdq/screening/bladder/HealthProfessional/page2

72,500 new cases in 2013 expected.

Reading this, makes me wonder why they haven't included PEB's CXBladder.

I emailed the CEO of this mob about 6 weeks ago asking whether they had heard of PEB ....still waiting for a reply though. Mind you, they don't mention about any competitors either.

Minerbarejet

17-06-2013, 08:51 AM

"PEDUSA has set an ambitious sales target for its start-up year in 2013 which it expects to meet"
"PEDUSA has set an ambitious sales target( of xyz) for its start-up year in 2013 which it expects to meet"
Should really have an amount otherwise it means nothing.
Its easy to say after the fact our Target was xyz and we had abc which was 200% higher than what we expected to meet.
If we are expected to use the 2011 prospectus amount of .5% penetration then they should say so.
We musn't forget that transparency requires clarity otherwise it can become a mirror and reflect badly. MBJ 2013:)

croesus

18-06-2013, 11:26 AM

PEB... on a roll this am, was surprised the positive update ( in my view ) a few days ago ... did not have more effect.

One sniff of good sales, will make this a $1. stock.

In my very modest opinion.

JohnnyTheHorse

18-06-2013, 01:37 PM

If it closes on 60 or above then it has broken out of its downtrend (although those TA guys will want some good volume with that I'd say). All is looking good though.

Balance

18-06-2013, 02:28 PM

guys guys guys - let's not sweat the 2c jump.

Let's be patient, play a round of golf, feed the cat and go for a walk.

And roll on December... :-)

Agree 100% - no point sweating the small stuff.

Just remember Diligent as you go about your wanders. I still have the ones I bought at 42 cents. :D :D :D

Whipmoney

18-06-2013, 02:28 PM

In my case, can I feed the giant moa skeleton and take it for a walk?

You don't have any tyrannosaurus rex skelo's to walk?

Minerbarejet

18-06-2013, 02:51 PM

no doubt moved with skeleton staff at the mooseium:)

MAC

18-06-2013, 09:06 PM

Thanks for the update there Sparky. I've attached a chart for those looking to top up. The support levels are 56 cents, and then 54 cents. If it breaks both of those then it's a long way down! Technicals are now oversold. We need to break that downtrend line and then we can all start smiling a bit more. I'm still very bullish regarding PEB, however as Sparky outlined, it isn't going to be an instant road to riches!

4597

Seems you may be able to smile again JohnnyTheHorse, todays close at $0.61 may have popped PEB out of its 4 month pennant.

Let’s see if confirms over the next couple of days and hopefully we then begin to see an upward trend line form as we gradually begin to receive spot sales data over the next 12 months.

Balance

19-06-2013, 08:19 AM

Cynical? Hmmmm....reviewing a few of PT's posts ...I would suggest devil's advocate at best...but more likely defeatist, stirrer or looking for reason's not to invest.

I'm with Sparky ... PEB have been very deliberate and methodical with the way they are building up this firm. As they move on, there is every reason to suggest they are going to achieve their targets and expectations...as we are. In fact, they are achieving them from what I can see.

There are some on this site who are the best contrarian indicators you can ever get.

I follow their postings as the more negative they get, the better.

Remember this? Diligent's sp then was 15 cents!

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5408-Diligent-Boardbooks-IPO/page5

Holy shiat!

Who would want to invest in this dog?

Diligent operating loss

4:30AM Friday Feb 27, 2009

Software company Diligent Board Member Services yesterday announced a US$11.8 million operating loss for the 2008 financial year.

Diligent produces Diligent Boardbooks, a web-based system to simplify board meeting materials.

It moved its software division from New York to Christchurch in 2001.
The 2008 financial year was its first full year as a listed company on the NZ exchange.

Sales for the 2008 year of US$2.93 million were up on
US$1.73 million for the previous year. But operating expenses were US$12.87 million, including US$6.2 million for marketing and US$5.4 million in general expenses.

lastmoa

19-06-2013, 10:51 AM

just posted. May go for a look :

Pacific Edge Diagnostics NZ will be exhibiting our bladder cancer detection test, Cxbladder, at the NZMA General Practice Conference and Medical Exhibition in Rotorua this week (June 20-23).
Come visit us at booth 107 to learn more about Cxbladder and how it can help make a meaningful difference in a patient's treatment.

lastmoa

19-06-2013, 11:43 AM

If anyone hasn't seen Pacific Edge presenting and displaying, then a visit is well worth the effort; I'm sure you will be absolutely impressed - just wear your nurses outfit, i'm sure they will let you in.

I did read from the NZMA website that there is an admission/registration fee. Seems steep if you just want to see the PEB booth only. Can't say I am in the medical field at all.

MAC

21-06-2013, 11:34 AM

And .... an hour and a half later buyers are back. That could well have been the best and shortest buying opportunity of the year.

Balance

21-06-2013, 12:40 PM

And .... an hour and a half later buyers are back. That could well have been the best and shortest buying opportunity of the year.

Days like these, you buy off those who are cleaning off the brown stuff from their pants.

Whoever is buying is strategic, taking every opportunity to load up on stock.

A J&J lurking in the background?

Balance

21-06-2013, 12:47 PM

Mark my post today - markets will be aggressively chasing growth stocks in a rising interest rate environment within 3 months.

Meanwhile, gold looks like it's back to US$800?

Dentie

27-06-2013, 06:51 AM

Righto then ....we're off and running...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/health/news/article.cfm?c_id=204&objectid=10893207

27-06-2013, 08:33 AM

Good to see he's got his cajones out and put his c0ck on the block. We now have two targets to measure their success on

Profit next year
$100m revenue in 5 years

croesus

27-06-2013, 08:39 AM

Well how many investors out there, reading that article in the Herald...whilst sipping their lattes, waiting for there flight or train... will think. hmm better grab some, don't want to miss the boat like I did with Diligent and Xero... yep...

there will be a few though thinking.... why the hell did I put that 10 k into MRP, or that money I went and put on Snakk .. damn wish I had it now, 20,000 PEB would be way better then 100.000 SNK..... aaaarghh.

QOH

27-06-2013, 10:14 AM

Well that announcement seems to have caused no interest at all. looks like we will have to wait until they
"walk the walk"

Dentie

27-06-2013, 12:01 PM

Everything in that report is consistent with what I was expecting. They know what bases they needed to cover and it appears they have (or are doing) that well - including identifying the risks. I like that they are not forgetting to market directly to the end user as they are central to the whole thing and they seem to be keeping both feet on the ground. They still seem to have a bit of dosh to grow - let's hope the sales figures means they don't need any more from us. I like to see any business able stand on its own feet and fund its own way.

I also liked David Darling's aggressive attitude in the Herald this morning.

Dentie

27-06-2013, 05:03 PM

Oh well, clearly some don't agree with my interpretation of the annual report - or the Herald's piece this morning.....seem to be hightailing out of the stock, as opposed to holding for the inevitable lift later on. If only I had some more spare dosh...

Dentie

27-06-2013, 05:07 PM

That makes sense Moose...but we all knew the sales weren't going to be there for this report.

Xerof

27-06-2013, 05:07 PM

Which is why I bought in today, small first tranche

MAC

27-06-2013, 05:11 PM

Some traders just go straight to the income statement. All the more bargains to be had for the wise and patient !

blobbles

28-06-2013, 03:22 PM

A good report from Pacific Edge. My summary:

They appear to be setting July 2013 as the base date for sales, turning from getting everything in place to driving sales.
A lot of talk about their "User program" which appears to be basically giving away the tests and results to clinicians. They expect this will be translated to sales in the future.
The report has an excellent summary of all the risks involved in investing in their company. Its quite comprehensive and should be an excellent starting point for anyone who doesn't understand the risks.
They are quite bullish and I believe rightly so.
Interesting that they state there isn't much competition in the bladder cancer detection market, very interesting.
I like the bit about CxBladder being a "market disruptive product". Bodes well...
Their available market size is listed on page 19, about 2.35 million tests a year, across USA/Spain/NZ & Aus.

A back of the envelope calculation shows that @1% penetration that would mean 23500 tests a year or about $11+ million in revenue, enough to cover their current expenses and most likely the testing (I am assuming $500 per test).
@5% that would mean around $58 million in revenue with a probably 10c per share profit.
@10% that would mean around $100 million plus, based on those figures. I figure 10% market penetration is probably what they are after in 5 years.

Of course @0% that would mean $0 in revenue! Always need to keep that in mind!

blobbles

28-06-2013, 03:26 PM

Oh yeah - their listing of the calibre, depth and breadth of the people involved is impressive. Its hard to see them making miss-steps with the people they have already.

barney

28-06-2013, 05:29 PM

One other positive is the fact that clinicians see the test as being useful for more clinical endpoints than what the company originally envisiged. That might indicate that clinicians are happy adopting the test.

10% market penetration. Imagine if they get 30% or 40%, or even more. I guess we will know by the end of the year how early sales are going.

barney

29-06-2013, 02:45 PM

Yesterdays NBR had a short article " Pacific Edge embarks on US sales drive."

An interesting anology quoted from the article, " Mr Darling likens the company's user programme for urologists like buying a $3000,000 Maserati - you want to take it for a test drive first, give your mother in law a go and then let the bank manager take it for a spin before you buy."

It also mentioned that the company was working on local District Health Boards and expects to release further updates on developments shortly.

janner

29-06-2013, 08:26 PM

Don't think Maserati's would survive Dunedin..
Mate of mine burnt his clutch out on the third drive up his short ( to short to boot it ) Titirangi drive.

barney

30-06-2013, 04:59 PM

http://media.mmm-online.com/documents/51/hcb_health_12702.pdf

AndyLP

02-07-2013, 12:13 PM

Hi PEB enthusiasts..

I thought I'd see how far I'd get with coming up for a fair price for PEB assuming they hit their 100m revenue target in 5 years. Please bear in mind I'm about as new to this as one can possibly get.
Assuming an NPAT of 45m. With 278m shares outstanding that gives us an EPS of 0.16. If we were to take a P/E ratio of say 15, that would give a price of $2.40
This price seems considerably lower when compared to previous poster's 5 year estimations. Is this because people are assuming a higher P/E for PEB as a growth stock?

If anyone can help me learn about about this, that'd be fantastic!
Cheers

02-07-2013, 12:22 PM

Is this because people are assuming a higher P/E for PEB as a growth stock?I would expect so. If a company has gone from $0 revenue to $100m revenue in 5 years, you have to assume it wont stop there.

Even the no growth power co's are on a P/E of 20!

AndyLP

02-07-2013, 12:23 PM

Gotchya. Thanks CJ

AndyLP

02-07-2013, 01:03 PM

Nice one Sparky, thanks mate. I'm about a third of the way through Intelligent Investor actually so looking forward to the IV formula.
Thanks again for your help

AndyLP

02-07-2013, 01:22 PM

Yup that was the first one I read. Also got through The Essays of Warren Buffet: Lessons for Corporate America too, though while I gained some good insights, there was a lot of technical accounting stuff in that which I found a tad challenging. I'll give that one a re-read in a year or so and hopefully look through accounting etc will make more sense to me.

Minerbarejet

02-07-2013, 01:24 PM

Check out post #679 from JohnnytheHorse. As they say please remain seated while looking at the IV section
Cheers:)
post edited for wrong number -above number is correct now

bottlerboy

02-07-2013, 01:46 PM

I went looking for that post and found it at #679 ?

Minerbarejet

02-07-2013, 02:09 PM

I went looking for that post and found it at #679 ?
Me too! I think what has happened is that I made a mistake in a previous post and referred to 705 as the link. Senior moment. 10000 apologies to all concerned. Glad you found it and we have it sorted. :):)

bottlerboy

02-07-2013, 02:25 PM

It was well worth tracking down and reading!
Thank you for pointing us in that direction.

Minerbarejet

02-07-2013, 02:56 PM

It was well worth tracking down and reading!
Thank you for pointing us in that direction.
Mystery solved - if I recall admin removed quite a few posts around that area which would have reset the numbers. Nuff said.:)

lastmoa

02-07-2013, 03:44 PM

Good man. Next step is Peter lynch's "one up on Wall Street". Those 2 books will give you a terrific head start!

Yep, One up on Wall Street, is a good book that makes you realise the advantage you can have over the larger funds/investment companies.

Minerbarejet

03-07-2013, 08:11 AM

Just a thought re the larger picture. Most of the conjecture about the future price of the share is only factoring in an amount obtained mostly from the USA. Having spent quite a bit of time adding up most of the population of Western Europe it would appear that there is a market about the same size as the USA? A 10% penetration there would make quite a difference. Dont forget Canada and Britain may come on board. Also some of the emerging countries may take it on as well. Plus we are only talking one product - what happens when Cx bladder proves successful. All other products would not need the hard yards quite the same and could become quickly established. Think I'll get some more

Minerbarejet

03-07-2013, 09:18 AM

You're talking like an XRO junkie there Major. Might want to cool it down before Rod gets jealous and PEB is worth 5 squihillion dollars! :eek2:
You didnt get it moosie, usually when I talk something up it goes down and vice versa so after I get the shares Ill downramp it and we will be away. lol :)
however I do think that it will be worth north of 1.00 at some stage which is fine by me.

Minerbarejet

03-07-2013, 09:43 AM

Careful Major, you might be labelled a heretic if you talk down PEB too much!
hope I dont get burnt with this stake. :eek2:

Dentie

03-07-2013, 11:34 AM

Hell Moosie - where on earth do you find the time to dig up this stuff??/ LOL

blobbles

04-07-2013, 03:22 PM

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/238217

And the quality of the people involved keeps increasing...

Or is it now the quantity of quality people involved keeps increasing? They probably have to start being careful - with so many directors and scientists involved, they may end up with too many chiefs and not enough followers!

Iolite

04-07-2013, 05:35 PM

A quick google search for his full name reveals that he has patents to do with technology that can silence (prevent) expression of specific genes and stimulate an immune response at the same time.
This could be targeted to genes expressed only in specific types of cancer cells, both preventing the cancerous cells from replicating and targeting the cells to attack by the immune system at the same time:
http://patent.ipexl.com/US/8318924.html

It is tempting to speculate that his involvement indicates PEB is working on bladder cancer treatments, not just detection.

Oh, and hello! (My first post on the forum after lurking for a couple of months!)

DISC: Holder of a small number of PEB shares.

barney

04-07-2013, 09:03 PM

This would appear to be the same Bryan Williams that had been on the Pacific Edge scientific advisory board for a number of years.

JohnnyTheHorse

08-07-2013, 10:57 AM

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/177960.pdf

Would these shares be issued to Cellmid, indicating the first Cxbladder test has been sold?

blobbles

08-07-2013, 11:40 AM

Well, at least we know they have sold one!

Minerbarejet

08-07-2013, 12:00 PM

Thats a good start - maybe they can double it before long.
Whats the arrangement with "Cellmid" anyway - is this an ongoing thing or a "oncer"?
:)

hilskin

08-07-2013, 12:43 PM

From post 1337 posted by banksie.......

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/co...sts-42010.html (http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/42010/cellmid-licensees-advance-commercialisation-of-lung-bladder-tests-42010.html)

"The licence between Cellmid (http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/overview/1815/Cellmid) and Pacific Edge, which was agreed to in 2010, provides for a milestone fee payable in shares, which is due on the first sale of Cxbladder in the U.S.

Royalties on revenues are expected to be paid to Cellmid (http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/overview/1815/Cellmid) semi-annually."

Minerbarejet

08-07-2013, 01:32 PM

so its a oncer in shares and the royalties in cash? Or do we get diluted every 6 months?

JohnnyTheHorse

08-07-2013, 01:38 PM

so its a oncer in shares and the royalties in cash? Or do we get diluted every 6 months?

They are rewarded with shares upon the first sale (as what has probably just happened) and then they are paid 2.5% (from memory) of Cxbladder sales.

Minerbarejet

08-07-2013, 02:18 PM

They are rewarded with shares upon the first sale (as what has probably just happened) and then they are paid 2.5% (from memory) of Cxbladder sales.
Thanks JTH -had me worried there for a minute. All good news then - I'm sure we will hear more.
Sales started 1st of July in earnest -they aren't mucking around if they have an obligation like that done and dusted by the 8th. Hang on to your hats I'd say.

Minerbarejet

09-07-2013, 08:46 AM

This is a major milestone for PEB if these shares have gone to Cellmid - as usual it takes a few days to sink in.
IMHO
someone is interested this morning though

Dentie

09-07-2013, 09:49 AM

Hey STC - I beat you with comments the other day and now you have just ripped the words out of my mouth (in terms of your first sentence at least)

Just that my fingers don't type as fast as you ...

Minerbarejet

09-07-2013, 10:06 AM

well at least the buyer made sure he got them at 60
Thanks for the links STC-theres more than enough to keep me happy for a while- where did you dig him up?

Balance

09-07-2013, 06:24 PM

well at least the buyer made sure he got them at 60
Thanks for the links STC-theres more than enough to keep me happy for a while- where did you dig him up?

Interesting.

Just got a printout of the latest shareholder list of PEB and it shows that of the top 100 shareholders, most of them have been buying save two.

The two selling seem to be custodian retail clients of broking firms.

The institutional shareholders continued to buy stock and add to their shareholdings.

Most of the selling are coming from smaller shareholders outside of the top 100.

Balance

09-07-2013, 06:41 PM

a huge signal right thete that the smart money is indeed being smart ;)

I sense that most of the institutions are happy with their current level of shareholdings but will add more when stock becomes 'cheap'.

Balance

09-07-2013, 07:08 PM

Cheap, or cheap relative to earnings? :-)

Balance, would you be kind enough to share with us some of the more interesting movements on the list?

Cheap relative to where they bought in and perceive as value, I suspect.

Sure. Sent to me by one of my contacts.

Movements over last 2 weeks among top 100 shareholders :

Huljich +127,500
Institutional +78,000
Forsyth Barr & FNZ Custodians +130,000

First NZ Capital Securities -146,687 (leaving 410,000)
Forsyth Barr Custodians -20,000

Now that I have had a closer look, I wonder if First NZ Capital Securities is selling the last of the placement stock from Masfen?

May explain why shares keep getting dished out at 60 cents.

barney

09-07-2013, 07:32 PM

Cheap relative to where they bought in and perceive as value, I suspect.

Sure. Sent to me by one of my contacts.

Movements over last 2 weeks among top 100 shareholders :

Huljich +127,500
Institutional +78,000
Forsyth Barr & FNZ Custodians +130,000

First NZ Capital Securities -146,687 (leaving 410,000)
Forsyth Barr Custodians -20,000

Now that I have had a closer look, I wonder if First NZ Capital Securities is selling the last of the placement stock from Masfen?

May explain why shares keep getting dished out at 60 cents.

That's interesting. Thanks Balance.

Hopefully the NZ dollar will keep falling against the US dollar just to add some zing to the profit margin.

Xerof

10-07-2013, 08:18 AM

Now that I have had a closer look, I wonder if First NZ Capital Securities is selling the last of the placement stock from Masfen?

May explain why shares keep getting dished out at 60 cents.

given Masfen got 65 for them, I hope not, for FNZ's sake........

Balance

10-07-2013, 08:35 AM

given Masfen got 65 for them, I hope not, for FNZ's sake........

First NZ Capital Securitiers is the firm's trading book or house account, I think. So just my take on the situation.

Nothing irks institutions and high net worth individuals more than being scaled back on a placement, to find the broker keeping shares in the house account to dish out post placement.

A broker will find the placement clients most unappreciative.

Another possibility is that FNZ had a client default on the placement so is left with the stock.

In any case, there appears to be only 410,000 shares left a week ago so will gone soon.

Balance

10-07-2013, 02:11 PM

Share price action suggests someone wants the sp down.

I wonder why.

forest

10-07-2013, 02:28 PM

Share price action suggests someone wants the sp down.

I wonder why.

What makes you say that Balance?
Cheers.

Balance

10-07-2013, 03:16 PM

What makes you say that Balance?
Cheers.

Buyers were emerging and taking out the offers at 61 cents.

Out came a seller who sold all the bids down to 59 cents.

Strange dealing.

Dentie

10-07-2013, 03:24 PM

Buyers were emerging and taking out the offers at 61 cents.

Out came a seller who sold all the bids down to 59 cents.

Strange dealing.

Probably didn't like a new Director named Mr Williams??

Balance

10-07-2013, 03:27 PM

Probably didn't like a new Director named Mr Williams??

Sell down was done at 1.40 pm.
Announcement of director was done 1.50 pm.

Just interesting - does not really matter save to those who paid up to 61 cents this morning.

Dentie

10-07-2013, 03:32 PM

Oh Balance, I have seen it so many times where timings of events just seem rather coincidental. Not saying this is the case here .... but get cynical all the same

BTW .... I know nothing technical in this game ...but Mr W's seems to have had a relevantly experienced career

GR8DAY

10-07-2013, 03:39 PM

.....MR WILLIAMS APPEARS TO HAVE THE GOODS ALSO. DARLING & CO. DOING VERY WELL IN ASSEMBLING A HIGH QUALITY DIRECTORSHIP WITH ALL THE RIGHT CREDENTIALS. CAN'T IMAGINE ANY OF THEM SIGNING UP WITHOUT FULLY RESEARCHING THE UPSIDE TO PEB's TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS PLAN.......THEIR OWN CREDIBILITY IS ALSO AT STAKE. THE POSITIVES JUST KEEP BUILDING FOR PEB. GOOD WORK!

The Grinch

10-07-2013, 05:21 PM

Balance

10-07-2013, 05:53 PM

Hi Balance,

I often read your posts and respect the level of research and information that you present... but the top 100 have purchased a minimal 171k of shares over the last two weeks which only represents a 0.08% movement... hardly smart money buying up.

I never used the words 'smart money' if you notice.

Just my observations that institutional and Huljich are buying (over 300,000 shares) while it is really one decent sized seller from the top 100 shareholders.

Intel

10-07-2013, 07:01 PM

Long time lurker, first time poster

I have found the information on these boards useful and fun to read. I thought I would add my ten cents as to why I hold PEB.

First and foremost they have an exciting market which they are trying to crack and no doubt they will earn staggering amounts of cash if successful in the US.

I have modelled PEB and can come up with a share price in the vicinity of $10 +. My main method for valuation was a DCF, constructed by looking at the way other successful cancer diagnostics have captured their respective markets and the rate at which this happens. Obviously this is a best case valuation and could be party to a number of risks which I have clearly ignored in a best case scenario.

Genomics have a breast cancer screening diagnostic which took well over 10 years to gain around 70% of their possible market. It is slow going but if PEB starts well I would expect the market to price in this expectation rather quickly, as did Genomics shareholders.

The second company which intrigues me is Exact Sciences. They are in the process of regulatory approval, and comemrcialisation of a non invasive colon cancer diagnostic should begin soon. They are valued at 1bn NZD + and have about 10 analysts covering the stock. The pricing of Blue Sky in America amazes me and I hope the same fate eventuates for PEB.

I would be really eager to know the number of trials that are going on with DHB's around NZ as well. Clearly the uptake by these organisations should be a clear sign as to whats to come in America. If any body knows anything more about that, I would be keen to know!

Any way, lets all enjoy the ride, to riches or ashes!

robbo24

10-07-2013, 07:13 PM

Long time lurker, first time poster

Nice post for your first one. I think your method is interesting, what characteristics did you use to determine your pool of comparison companies?

Intel

10-07-2013, 10:46 PM

http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com

This website here has been useful, but I have to give most of the credit to google. Do enough digging and you eventually find some gems.

It really is an interesting universe and there will be lots of fantastic opportunities. One of my gravest concerns is the speed in which technology evolves and develops within the biotech space, particularly genetic diagnostics, seems to be the hottest thing around and stocks are likely to fall just as quickly as they have risen. As soon as someone develops something slightly better its gameover.

Has anyone heard of an australian company producinv a bladder cancer diagnostic. privately owned company called sienna I think

blu3

11-07-2013, 04:23 AM

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-07/09/odoreader

Hi there!

I've just stumbled upon the article above which links to a study published only recently: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0069602
At first glance the Odoreader seems to be a very similar product to Cxbladder but I guess it would be pointless to publish a study if an equivalent product such as Cxbladder already exists and starts to sell on the US market, right?
Would someone knows what are the actual differences between both and if it could potentially impact negatively PEB even though they seem to still be testing their product?

Balance

11-07-2013, 11:00 AM

Some serious buying coming into PEB this morning to take on the seller?

Someone just put 125,000 to buy at 60 cents.

Let's see if the seller will give away stock.

croesus

11-07-2013, 11:05 AM

That is a serious bid.... lets see if he moves it up a cent ?

This stock seems to me to be waiting for some good news.. just a sniff and we could have 10c on in 10 minutes.

Shame no one is related to the Tea Lady, at Hershey.

Snow Leopard

11-07-2013, 12:20 PM

...Shame no one is related to the Tea Lady, at Hershey.

Americans still do not drink much tea.
Your house will have a coffee maker of some sort but probably no electric jug/kettle.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

blobbles

11-07-2013, 01:38 PM

I bet mellow yellow isn't the drink of choice, it would remind them of their work too much.

Minerbarejet

11-07-2013, 03:32 PM

I bet mellow yellow isn't the drink of choice, it would remind them of their work too much.
here we go again - someones always taking the piss out of the Americans. Um - let me rephrase that.:)

blobbles

11-07-2013, 06:21 PM

Well, someone got a sweet deal for 100k shares!

https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/238500

Xerof

11-07-2013, 07:07 PM

Surprised the holder of the 100,000 RPP's only converted what they had originally paid to obtain 7,299 shares

If he could have anted up 24k, he'd have been able to lock in a 36k profit.

philanthropic perhaps?

Balance

12-07-2013, 09:46 AM

Some serious buying coming into PEB this morning to take on the seller?

Someone just put 125,000 to buy at 60 cents.

Let's see if the seller will give away stock.

Seller gave 100k shares yesterday at 60c.

Buyer back in at 125k to buy at 60c.

Looks like one big buyer and one big seller feeling each other out.

Well, just another piece of good news and me thinkth sp will be back to 65 cents.

Snow Leopard

13-07-2013, 12:56 PM

A possible future competitor bladder cancer detection product (http://www.gizmag.com/odoreader-bladder-cancer-diagnosis/28224/)?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

MAC

16-07-2013, 10:09 PM

The PEB chart is looking a bit squeezed, five anguished tests of $0.61 resistance in the last six weeks too, won't do that forever.

Be nice if the good folk at PEB would formally announce first US sales, even just to pop us over the line ?

GR8DAY

17-07-2013, 09:40 AM

A possible future competitor bladder cancer detection product (http://www.gizmag.com/odoreader-bladder-cancer-diagnosis/28224/)?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

.....nothing like a bit of healthy competition to highlight the alternatives to traditional thinking! The idea of only having to wait 30 minutes for a result must be appealing BUT I somehow doubt this odour testing will give a comprehensive analysis such as will result from PEBs technology.......and this is what Urologists will naturally be looking for. Might be years before they convert their prototype into the pictured compact (artists impression),then have it approved. Meantime PEB will (hopefully) be cementing its place as the new benchmark in Bladder Cancer diagnosis.........not to mention other cancers.

JohnnyTheHorse

17-07-2013, 06:42 PM

Bollinger bands are getting extremely tight, with only a 4 cent gap between them. MACD is also teetering on moving into positive territory. Seems like there's a big seller that lets the price up to 61 and then starts selling hard again. I'm expecting a breakout soon, whether it be a result of institutional buying or traders pushing it high if it can break out above 62 or so. Been so many "almost" runs in the last few months, so this could all fizzle into nothing again. Ah well, even if it doesn't take off, indications of US sales in a few months will get it moving!

barney

17-07-2013, 06:56 PM

The AGM is only just over a month away. If there is no news before then, the meeting should provide an interesting update .

robbo24

17-07-2013, 07:26 PM

A possible future competitor bladder cancer detection product (http://www.gizmag.com/odoreader-bladder-cancer-diagnosis/28224/)?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

"...Traditionally, one of the methods used to pick up early signs of bladder cancer involves training dogs to sniff out the telltale scent – although using dogs for diagnoses in a hospital is far from ideal. However, the fact that dogs could detect cancer through smells gave rise to the idea that the key could be in the odor of certain gases."

“These results are very encouraging for the development of new diagnostic tools for bladder cancer, but we now need to look at larger samples of patients to test the device further before it can be used in hospitals,” says Professor Chris Probert of the University of Liverpool." - If the experience of PEB proves anything it is that simply identifying "the need to look at larger samples" is a far cry from what it actually takes to put this testing device "into hospitals". Dreaming.

Minerbarejet

18-07-2013, 07:16 PM

And now - Cellmid goes Japanese with latex.
http://www.cellmid.com.au/content_common/pg-asx-company-announcements.seo

Dentie

18-07-2013, 07:23 PM

Yes Major - read about this earlier. Moving into cancer diagnostics too by the look of it. Do you reckon this could have any negative impact on PEB?

Minerbarejet

18-07-2013, 08:15 PM

Yes Major - read about this earlier. Moving into cancer diagnostics too by the look of it. Do you reckon this could have any negative impact on PEB?
Damned if I know - this is all getting very confusing with all the different types of cancer and different methods of diagnosis - cellmid doing this - peb doing that- dogs sniffing this and that - startrek devices- think I will set my exit point at 15.71 about now and do a bit of waiting - as usual.:)

JohnnyTheHorse

18-07-2013, 08:43 PM

Yes Major - read about this earlier. Moving into cancer diagnostics too by the look of it. Do you reckon this could have any negative impact on PEB?

I can't imagine why there would be.

The squeeze is currently on the PEB share price - I'm expecting some extreme volatility in the near future (a large and sudden increase or decrease). The last time PEB was under similar circumstances the SP went from ~40 cents to ~70 cents. Looking at the technicals, I can't see an indication as to which way it will go (although based on the prospects of the company one would imagine that the odds are somewhat in favor of upwards). I will be watching the SP very closely over the next wee while.

Minerbarejet

18-07-2013, 08:58 PM

I will be watching the SP very closely over the next wee while.
Nice one ,lol:lol:
And thanks for the rest

Dentie

19-07-2013, 06:49 AM

Thanks Johnny & Major. At the rate technology is moving (for this oldish fella anyway), it is quite difficult to keep up with it all and, if I'm honest, I am getting left further & further behind. However, the fact that PEB has done all its testing and is now rampaging around its market (well, hopefully!), it gives me confidence at least for the short to medium term that they are ring fencing some real decent revenue now. I am impressed with the methodical (& humble) way in which they have gone about their business. They've done the hard yards and should be enough ahead of their competitors to cement their position in the market. I certainly agree about the technical pressure building - and, just like last year, seems like people are waiting for the AGM next month - where the SP went from .20 to .70 very quickly. I was impressed with what I saw and heard at last years AGM - let's hope it repeats itself.

Minerbarejet

19-07-2013, 10:08 AM

Dentie

19-07-2013, 10:55 AM

I'd be happy with b at this stage ... which would be consistent with the way the company has been progressing to date. The great thing is, they have been methodical and humble. I like the way Mr Darling doesn't rant about the marketplace talking up the SP (which has no indication that it is being kept there by fresh (or hot?) air.

Minerbarejet

19-07-2013, 02:32 PM

Must say you are an expert on finding the good oil, Hancocks. Afraid I will have to bow to superior knowledge on this one as most of what is descibed is pretty well incomprehensible to me. However the proof is in the pudding or SP for us so there is no reason not to participate just on the basis of not being able to understand every last detail. Cheers from one blown away with medical and scientific parlance:)
point taken on the midkine as 1 of 5 and part of a toolbox though and thanks for that

blobbles

19-07-2013, 03:33 PM

It seems that most of the other contenders haven't really got out the starting gate yet by comparison to PEB's effort so far. Gutometer reading shows four scenarios at the AGM
a. Its not going as well as we thought it should. Likelihood reading 10%
b. Its going pretty much as planned. Likelihood reading 50%
c. Its going much faster than we had planned for but we can handle it. Likelihood reading 30%
d. Its far exceeding our expected uptake. Likelihood reading 10%
share price a .30
share price b .80
share price c 1.50
share price d 2.50
based on pure speculation, reading this thread, gut feeling (there is quite a bit of it), reading the competition websites and generally googling the heck out of everything even remotely related. Imho:)

I think we would all be happy with b. I would give your higher ones less of a chance though - starting out will be the hardest time sales wise as you will have a chicken and egg scenario. "Nobody else is using your test, why should we?" I can just imagine being said many times during sales discussions! Most likely followed, on the PEB guys by "I will tell you what, we will give you a hundred for free (or cheap), evaluate these against your current methods and see how it stacks up. That's 50k worth of tests! But we want rights to publish your results and to use them in future sales pitches.", hopefully followed by "OK, that sounds good, sign us up!"

MAC

19-07-2013, 04:27 PM

I think you are correct Brighton Early, we should be patient as sales management roll out their well presented strategy.

There is no PEB commitment to quarterly reporting. David Darling did advise that he will update us on sales later in the year, however I took this to mean that this would be at half year reporting in November.

PEB could though take a lot of volatility out by incrementally announcing sales agreements as and when they arise with DHB's and similar organisations within the US and Europe. The last one was only six weeks or so ago in May, we should be starting to see more as the year progresses.

Dentie

19-07-2013, 05:07 PM

Midkine is a gene produced by a tumor and if the levels are detected as elevated, then there could be a tumor, this is one of the genes used in the 5 gene Cxbladder cancer test and was obviously not the intellectual property of Pacific Edge Limited. The other 4 genes are; and, that is where all the time, work, treasure and discovery has been directed, I reckon that you may find Midkine in other Pacific Edge products; it’s a handy thing to have in the toolbox! Midkine by itself is not a useful tool.

About the company

Fujikura Kasei is a Japanese company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange with headquarters in Tokyo. Established in 1938, Fujikura Kasei Co Ltd is a fine chemical company traditionally with core strengths in coating materials, electro-conductive materials, polymers and resins, serving electronics, automobiles, buildings industries. With its platform technologies in particle size and shape control, hybridization, functionality and processing, Fujikura Kasei is one of the largest suppliers of latex particles used in medical diagnostic based on latex coagulation technology.

Wikipedia - Latex Fixation Test (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latex_fixation_test)

Read this article (below Table 2) it looks like quite an involved process.

Latex Assay for Serotyping of Group B Streptococcus Isolates (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC193831/)

Many thanks Hancocks for your diligent research and understanding of the complexity in PEB's toolbox

QOH

20-07-2013, 03:37 PM

I'm in awe of your research Hancocks. I'm ashamed of how little research I do, it's usually just my gut instinct or following someone elses research.

Dentie

20-07-2013, 05:44 PM

I reiterate - thank you Hancocks. I really appreciate your input into this thread.

whatsup

22-07-2013, 10:10 AM

I'm in awe of your research Hancocks. I'm ashamed of how little research I do, it's usually just my gut instinct or following someone elses research. I wouldnt know where to start looking, , Hancocks please keep us informed with your research/knowledge, cheers

MAC

23-07-2013, 10:37 AM

Well it appears someone is selling this morning leaving PEB on it's MA200 for the first time in a year or so.

I don't think we will see this again for some time, very very tempting ..............

23-07-2013, 11:47 AM

Well it appears someone is selling this morning leaving PEB on it's MA200 for the first time in a year or so.

I don't think we will see this again for some time, very very tempting ..............Buyers at 57c being chipped away at and not much support once that is gone.

Disc: I am in the cue to double down but getting nervous.

lastmoa

23-07-2013, 11:52 AM

Buyers at 57c being chipped away at and not much support once that is gone.

Disc: I am in the cue to double down but getting nervous.

Has te story changed - no.
Unusually big volume - no
So why the selling - nervous people.
So don't be one of them. 8-)

Doubling down is always a risky, not recommended game. Better to have faith and ride out the fluctuations. From what I see, PEB plays there cards close to their chest and when they report good news this stock will go. Until then, go for a long walk around the block.

23-07-2013, 12:54 PM

And back up to 59c. CJ can start looking at Porsche websites again. :)I wish.

I will point out that I was only nervous as my buying appears to be a sell signal for the rest of the market (how they know I have no idea), especially of late. My sells however appear to be triggers for the stock to rally (luckly I only did partial sell downs recently where shares were overwieght, not the full holding)

I am happy with my existing holding, and given my optimism, doubling that probably isn't a bad idea, at the right price.

hling88

23-07-2013, 01:39 PM

It seems the big player has not got enough chips.

Dentie

23-07-2013, 05:00 PM

Has te story changed - no.
Unusually big volume - no
So why the selling - nervous people.
So don't be one of them. 8-)

Doubling down is always a risky, not recommended game. Better to have faith and ride out the fluctuations. From what I see, PEB plays there cards close to their chest and when they report good news this stock will go. Until then, go for a long walk around the block.

Well stated Dellow

biker

23-07-2013, 05:30 PM

Has te story changed - no.
Unusually big volume - no
So why the selling - nervous people.

So don't be one of them............ From what I see, PEB plays there cards close to their chest and when they report good news this stock will go........

Agree. Bought more today at 58c

JohnnyTheHorse

23-07-2013, 06:12 PM

Pretty interesting situation happening from a technical perspective right now (so please read this as only technical, has nothing to do with the future success of the company)...

Resistance is sitting at 61 cents, whilst there is support at 58 cents. The thing that interests me the most is the EXTREMELY tight bollinger bands, indicating very low volatility. It cannot stay this way, volatility will return. This is called a "squeeze". A break outside of either band will occur very rapidly and the run will generally be quite large, especially due to extreme tightening here. There is also the 200 DMA at 56 cents which should act as major support if the lower band was to be broken. OBV has recently been going downwards, indicating money flowing out of the stock (evident through the daily depth, a few big sellers getting out).

From my view, I believe there is enough support for PEB to break out upwards instead of downwards (although this can't be predicted). I would be extremely surprised if 56 cents was broken, I feel that it wont be able to get through 58 (on volume). A close on or above 62 cents would indicate a definite buy.

Disc: Hold a good chunk of PEB.

4665

MAC

23-07-2013, 07:37 PM

The fundamentals are certainly to the upside.

PEB have demonstrated sound management in meeting their capital raising obligations, all necessary regulatory approvals are in place, all laboratories are now operational, and a well presented sales strategy is presently being rolled out.

At some point we should expect the market to back the stock and to start pricing in forward sales.

winner69

23-07-2013, 08:02 PM

MAC

23-07-2013, 08:53 PM

......... or until a trigger comes along like the next anticipated DHB contract announcement, could happen at anytime.

Minerbarejet

23-07-2013, 09:19 PM

......... or until a trigger comes along like the next anticipated DHB contract announcement, could happen at anytime.
This is a bit like waiting for Mt Taranaki to blow its top - we have a pretty good idea it will happen but just not sure when. Pressure seems to be building though and in a years time 58 cents may look like the bargain of the century. It seems to me that this stock is a long term hold on the central core holding and possibly a trader with smaller additional amounts. Look at it as a term deposit - leave it for a year and see what you get - bet its more than the bank.:)

Dentie

24-07-2013, 08:18 AM

Here's one crowd offering education to its readers ...

http://sierracancer.com/news/bladder-cancer-what-you-should-know

...and under this heading "Testing for bladder cancer"...

..."Other tumor marker screening tests, like UroysionTM, BTA tests, ImmunocytTM and NMP22 BaldderChek® provided inconsistent and inconclusive results making them unreliable."

I'm surprised they don't seem to know about CxBladder ...or what PEB offers...

hilskin

24-07-2013, 09:38 AM

Balance

24-07-2013, 09:44 AM

Why wait for these support sites to be notified by their specialist advisors, why can't we help speed up the process and inform them of the benefits of CxBladder ourselves. If someone can put together a letter that can be sent to multiple sources ( I failed english at school ) I will email it to every resource website that mentions screen testing for Bladder Cancer so they can investigate for themselves if they need to update their websites. Who knows, it might help spread the word faster. Feel free to tell me this is a stupid idea:)

Step by step.

A solid building which stands the test of time and the elements starts with a good plan and is built from the ground up with solid foundations.

I am very comfortable with the way that PEB is going about building up market presence and interaction.

hilskin

24-07-2013, 10:03 AM

24-07-2013, 10:09 AM

Fair call Balance and I get what you're saying but aren't the foundations already in place, we are at the point where people need to be informed to at least investigate the benefits CxBladder offer. There are hundreds of forums out there that could be posted on to at least inform the patients suffering from this horrible condition. Care would be required so posts come across as being informative rather than pushing a product. Something to think about, you can't beat the power of people to spread the word.Far better people find out from their Urologist rather than some dude/dudette on the internet called Hilskin.

PEB are doing it right - targeting the doctors who will actually influence decisions. They want to be mainstream, not some alternative method found on the interwebs.

hilskin

24-07-2013, 10:16 AM

Fair enough, just having trouble keeping patient over here. Can't wait to see if Pacific Edge make good on all this potential they have.:)

Minerbarejet

24-07-2013, 10:45 AM

Fair enough, just having trouble keeping patient over here. Can't wait to see if Pacific Edge make good on all this potential they have.:)You will have your day in the sun, buddy. Dont worry so much its not good for your health.

Balance

24-07-2013, 11:32 AM

Fair enough, just having trouble keeping patient over here. Can't wait to see if Pacific Edge make good on all this potential they have.:)

Have a look at DIL, ATM and XRO - patience and more patience.

When the gusher comes, be there!

Minerbarejet

24-07-2013, 01:03 PM

Why wait for these support sites to be notified by their specialist advisors, why can't we help speed up the process and inform them of the benefits of CxBladder ourselves. If someone can put together a letter that can be sent to multiple sources ( I failed english at school ) I will email it to every resource website that mentions screen testing for Bladder Cancer so they can investigate for themselves if they need to update their websites. Who knows, it might help spread the word faster. Feel free to tell me this is a stupid idea:) Think you may have it around the wrong way - perhaps it may be better to compile a list of these sites and send it to Pacific Edge as possible contacts for PEB sales departments. I do think that PEB should be in complete control of their dealings and left to get on with it. PEB is pretty clued up and may have all this under the radar anyway. Good idea though and shows initiative but possibly may do more harm than good.

GR8DAY

24-07-2013, 01:21 PM

oh Jesus no. Don't do that. We'd be no better than the anonymous spam emailers who promise to make other people's penises hard like clubs of steel.

let PEB do what they do. They have a sales team and superb people running the show in the USA and in Dunedin.

.......so did the stuff work Spanky?? ( ive got a friend who could be interested)

Minerbarejet

24-07-2013, 01:32 PM

.......so did the stuff work Spanky?? ( ive got a friend who could be interested)
in the product or the result? - and who the heck is spanky?:lol: lol

skid

24-07-2013, 02:13 PM

Spanky--sounds like he has had to much of that product

Minerbarejet

24-07-2013, 03:06 PM

Sparky is who I am. Spanky is some pervert that Gr8day has confused me with. Sw4nky is my well off cousin, and Sparkly the Clown is the gay one.
You are three dwarves short, Slinky the thin one, Stanky operates the local sewage treatment plant, Shonky used to be a sharetrader and now works for the gummint. There was a Starky but he passed away in a nudist colony.
must be a slow day- sorry

GR8DAY

24-07-2013, 03:45 PM

lol, that just made my day.

.......gotta entertain ourselves somehow ah Moose on such a grey old winters day (and with very little action anywhere on the market?)

Dentie

24-07-2013, 08:05 PM

ha ha ha .... what a real crack up reading this...thanks for giving us a laugh you guys (gals?)...hehehe

hilskin

25-07-2013, 08:48 AM

Thanks Hancocks, appreciate the time and effort you put in to find this stuff.:t_up:

garfy

25-07-2013, 09:51 AM

Have been quietly topping up. Am really impressed with the thoroughly professional approach 'management et al' have to getting CxBladder into the medical arena. And also very grateful for the informed comment+ posted in this thread!

Minerbarejet

25-07-2013, 10:06 AM

Particularly interested that Cx bladder is being measured against cytoscopy and follow up as the " gold standard". Did I read somewhere amongst this thread that during some tests that cx bladder identified more cancers than that method. Would suggest that Cx bladder has a good chance of being the gold standard if that is the case. Once again thanks for your hard work and for sharing with us, Hancocks

Minerbarejet

25-07-2013, 10:21 AM

Hi Major, ‘Cytology’ could be replaced by Cxbladder, ‘Cystoscopy’ is the gold standard in the investigation of patients and Cxbladder will not replace that procedure; but may be used to reduce the frequency of a patient being subjected to Cystoscopy, as it is invasive, uncomfortable and expensive.
Thanks - I have cleaned my glasses:)

barney

25-07-2013, 10:36 AM

What you may be thinking of Major was one of the very good outcomes from the cxbladder trial carried out in Australia and New Zealand. During the trial, 3 of the patients that initially tested positive with cxbladder, but negative in the clinical work up, later were shown to have bladder cancer.

Minerbarejet

25-07-2013, 10:55 AM

barney

25-07-2013, 02:06 PM

Detected urothelial carcinoma (4%) not identified by Cystoscopy during the clinical work-up but confirmed by Cystoscopy at the 12 month follow-up.

I would guess that this is an outcome that Pacific Edge is pointing to in getting clinicians on board. I'm sure it's a good way of getting urologists to sit up and take notice of the benefits of using cxbladder.

Schrodinger

25-07-2013, 02:22 PM

Will this get them accross the line to purchase?

Dentie

25-07-2013, 03:09 PM

Seems here's another one getting closer ...

http://www.sciencecodex.com/novel_gene_target_shows_promise_for_bladder_cancer _detection_and_treatment-116292

Minerbarejet

25-07-2013, 03:29 PM

Seems here's another one getting closer ...

http://www.sciencecodex.com/novel_gene_target_shows_promise_for_bladder_cancer _detection_and_treatment-116292
Doesn't seem to be quite up with the play.

JohnnyTheHorse

26-07-2013, 05:57 PM

The 58 cent support appears to be holding up well, which is nice to see. I do have a small suspicion that someone may be trying to keep the price down (make small trades that push the price down at closing and other weird trades), as was noted by someone a few weeks back. Not really worth over thinking though.

Minerbarejet

29-07-2013, 11:38 AM

Found this by accident in announcements for CDY.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130729/pdf/42h968fbmmfnyq.pd
or perhaps go to asx announcements CDY if it doesnt work

hling88

30-07-2013, 04:55 PM

It seems any listing below 60c would be cleared. Haha...

JohnnyTheHorse

01-08-2013, 02:51 PM

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/179067.pdf

I imagine these have gone to Cellmid? I thought the ones a few weeks back were, so I'm not too sure who has been getting what. Either way, I think we can confidently say that at least one test has been sold in the US. Probably a bit soon to be gauging sales, but has anyone heard anything from anyone on how CxBladder is going in the US?

On the technical front, the stand off continues!

Edit: And there's conformation http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130801/pdf/42hfk7s1svhwg0.pdf

Minerbarejet

01-08-2013, 04:06 PM

Hate to state the bleeding obvious but as some of us thought the first lot were for Cellmid then who got the first lot in July. Anybody know ?

JohnnyTheHorse

01-08-2013, 04:09 PM

Hate to state the bleeding obvious but as some of us thought the first lot were for Cellmid then who got the first lot in July. Anybody know ?

Could possibly be Otago University?

Slam dunk

01-08-2013, 04:35 PM

Today's lot went to Cellamid. Announcement from Cellamid here.

Minerbarejet

01-08-2013, 04:38 PM

Next question is of course how many more of these little dilutionary nibbles are in the pipeline and to whom?
Disc Holding PEB and CDY

Dentie

03-08-2013, 11:21 AM

Agree Sparky - did the same about a month ago.

If they are getting royalties etc from PEB and others...thought it would make sense to get two bites of the cherry. If PEB does well (and why wouldn't they...), then so does CDY.

Dentie

03-08-2013, 07:17 PM

Appreciate (& agree with) your well informed research as always Hancock's ... thank you. All taken onboard.

For me, given CDY is a penny stock, the investment didn't require a lot of upfront $$$.

However, probably the wrong way of looking at it, but for me to double my $$$ then CDY needs to crack approx 6c per share. For me to do the same with XRO - they need to attain approx $35 per share - or with RYM they would need to reach $14 per share. In either case, my $$$ upfront would be far in excess of what I paid for CDY and my waiting time I think would be less.

Disc. PEB has already tripled my upfront dollars once ... and is not far off doing it again.

Minerbarejet

03-08-2013, 08:54 PM

Thanks for that once again Hancocks - I got the impression after their Japanese announcement that Cellmid had quite a few irons in the fire so to speak which is why I bought a few just to complement PEB nicely. Sort of like the garlic on your steak.
Dentie I agree with you that 3-6c a share is more easily attainable than 17.50 to 35.00 BUT the risk of bad news is proportionately higher but perhaps favouring the lower priced share -i.e. bad news could drop it to 2 but bad news at 17 could have you back at 4 in no time. I tend to favour the below 1.00 area with a smattering of sub .10.
Of course I could become a great fan of over 10 bucks if everything goes right.:)

Dentie

04-08-2013, 10:59 AM

Thanks again Hancocks. I take your point about new members perhaps misreading comments for buy/sell signals. I take everything on the forums as an opportunity to learn from the more experienced traders but make sure I take a position ONLY after doing my own research. That way, I only have myself to blame .... or, if I've done the correct research...thank!

NZSilver

04-08-2013, 01:36 PM

When is the next update/scheduled report from peb

MAC

04-08-2013, 01:43 PM

The AGM is on 22nd August 2013, half year reporting is 29th November 2013.

I'll be going to the AGM, hope to see others there also. It would be relieving to hear a little more out of PEB from time to time, but it is a very early stage in their sales curve and we must be patient. Hopefully PEB will kindly consider quarterly reporting once things get going better in the US and more regular sales growth is the norm.

Edit: AGM date corrected to 22/08/2013 on good advice.

barney

04-08-2013, 04:28 PM

I think you may have the wrong date for the AGM Mac. According to the NZX announcement on May 22nd, the PEB AGM is Thursday August 22nd. Will probably advise of the time and venue this week.

MAC

04-08-2013, 04:39 PM

Thanks Barney, https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/236511

AndyLP

04-08-2013, 08:55 PM

Have also booked flights for the AGM. Will be my first AGM in hopefully a long investment career.
Hancocks for me it says you've only posted 23 times.. I'm almost certain I've personally read more from you over the last year or so. Anyways, perhaps it just feels like more with all the information you pack in! Thanks

Minerbarejet

06-08-2013, 07:47 AM

Stuff news has an article re diagnostic test for heart attack this a.m. Sounds like Cellmid and Otago University are at it again. Another in the pipeline for Pacific Edge?:t_up:

sorry havent sorted out how to do links on this tablet

Minerbarejet

06-08-2013, 08:25 AM

usual result 2+2 =5:blush:

Dentie

07-08-2013, 06:57 AM

David spills some nice advice .... and I don't believe PEB is ugly!!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/unlimited/9007503/Your-baby-is-ugly-and-other-innovation-challenges

MAC

08-08-2013, 11:12 AM

I’m not sure if this is really a new promo or not, but for those new to PEB it seems a good general summary of the Cxbladder trial to be on thread.

All part of the greater sales plan I’m sure, would like to think this on every US urologist's desk top by now!.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7HNJhQjdwE

JohnnyTheHorse

08-08-2013, 11:17 AM

http://jobs.newscientist.com/en-gb/job/1401468098/clinical-manager/

MAC

08-08-2013, 11:24 AM

We get such little news out of PEB directly that we investors seem to cling to you tube and job advertisements for hints of what PEB are doing out there in the world.

I genuinely hope this becomes a matter of discussion at the AGM on the 22nd August.

Don't get me wrong, PEB are a fantastic company with even greater potential and I’m well invested, but it is like trying to see inside a rock at times ?

blobbles

08-08-2013, 11:38 AM

I see them as in a dedicated sales drive mode at the moment, so I say leave them to it. Material announcements seem to always come out on time so I aren't concerned about lack of news right now. I will be concerned if there are no sales announcements by the end of say next month though!

MAC

08-08-2013, 11:53 AM

I think you're right Bobbles we must be patient, recognise also that the information void is not all PEB's doing.

Those of us that like to research don't find much about cxbladder progress or penetration on industry (urologist) forums, so there is generally less information out there to routinely assess risk then there may be for many other NZX companies.

Ongoing risk assessment being compounded a little also by PEB advising they have a sales target but not announcing that target.

I fully understand the reasons why it has not been practical for PEB to provide FY13 numerical guidance, but there should not be the same reasons for withholding FY14 guidance, perhaps at the AGM.

barney

10-08-2013, 03:43 PM

I would be very suprised if the company announced any sales figures outside of the annual or interim results. They won't want to give the competition any more information than they have to.

I see one of the resolutions at the AGM is to increase the Directors fees from $120,000 to $172,000. Given the progress over the last couple of years I think it's a reasonable call. Hopefully it's a sign that the Directors are confident that things are on track.

Dentie

14-08-2013, 01:19 PM

Gee, looking at the depth...nearly 800k selling and only 48k buying. Seems everyone is waiting for the AGM and sales data. Hope the price doesn't drift too low in the meantime (currently .58)...that might have the effect of accidentally triggering a great buying opportunity for others.

JohnnyTheHorse

14-08-2013, 03:40 PM

Well 58 should act as a very strong support. If it breaks through that then it would be busting through a support line, 200dma and break out of a Bollinger squeeze. That would potentially be very bad for us holders! The stock just needs some good news and attention to break it out of this holding pattern (i.e the AGM).

Minerbarejet

14-08-2013, 07:11 PM

:)And on no news it goes sideways.

Dej

14-08-2013, 07:55 PM

I was in and out of this earlier this year and put proceeds into OXX at 18c which I withdrew at around 35c (Lucky punt). Any weakness in price and I'm back in ;)

boofters

15-08-2013, 08:54 AM

Could agree more Hancocks. How were the seismographs around Darfield, Canterbury looking in August, early September 2009? I work with FX traders and charts are IMO only really useful when the market is hyper-liquid, eg FX. For NZX equities I see little value in looking backwards.

MAC

15-08-2013, 10:44 AM

Has anyone any research on the market penetration of NMP-22 ?

http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.co.nz/2013/08/nmp-22-cxbladder-comparison.html?q=cxbladder

MAC

15-08-2013, 11:55 AM

Many thanks Hancock’s, found the link, it does seem to be a tough market to assay without procuring one of those $3000 market research reports. I'm off to the AGM next week, hopefully to return with some level of confidence that cxbladder is indeed a saleable product.

blobbles

15-08-2013, 12:41 PM

Has anyone any research on the market penetration of NMP-22 ?

http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.co.nz/2013/08/nmp-22-cxbladder-comparison.html?q=cxbladder

A quote from this: "Cxbladder results anticipate those of the NMP-22 by about 60 days"

Seems like a pretty good advertisement for Cxbladder right there...

Meister

18-08-2013, 10:28 PM

Hi everyone, I am new here!

I hold a small PEB parcel, looking to pick up some more. Not sure if I should wait until after the AGM though?
I feel as though we have seen consistently positive news lately but it is not translating to any positive price movement. Unlikely to get solid sales data at the AGM, so is it likely that the AGM will affect the stock price much at all?

etrader

18-08-2013, 11:11 PM

Welcome aboard meister - I'm not an analytical investor but have bought into a 5 year plan, sales have only been live for a few months by AGM so they have probably sold a few units but PEB have a very strategic roll out which at this stage is relationship building in the USA not instant sales. This stock will be $5 within 5 years just buy and let the PEB crew do their magic.

Just my view

MAC

19-08-2013, 11:07 AM

PEB claim to have the leading product in the market ahead of their immediate competitor in NMP-22, and there is some feedback now from the market to support this position. The immediate questions ahead, as PEB seeks to de-risk, are;

1) Will the cxbladder price point adequately entice US Urologists to switch to cxbladder ?

2) Are there barriers to entry that may hold cxbladder back, eg:

a) It's clear patient’s and health board's will benefit from cxbladder in health and cost, but will Urologist practices make more or less on their bottom line if they switch ?

b) NMP-22 has been around for a long time now, loyalties may need to be broken ?

My feel is that this particular AGM is a critical one in testing the “saleability” of cxbladder, without clear guidance from PEB on the above it may be that we see the SP correcting heavily.

A positive report (numerically and/or commentary) on first quarter US sales may partially de-risk the venture and the SP may equally rise significantly. My fully de-risked present valuation for PEB is $1.25.

My advice is to wait for the AGM presentation and announcement.

19-08-2013, 11:19 AM

A positive report (numerically and/or commentary) on first quarter US sales may partially de-risk the venture and the SP may equally rise significantly. My fully de-risked present valuation for PEB is $1.25.

My advice is to wait for the AGM presentation and announcement.Not necessarily sales figures but details on clinics/hospitals/etc that they have signed up would give a good indication.

JohnnyTheHorse

19-08-2013, 01:06 PM

Someone's keen! Took out 330,000 shares all the way up to 60 cents. I like.

GR8DAY

19-08-2013, 01:10 PM

someone's keen! Took out 330,000 shares all the way up to 60 cents. I like.

333,333 to be precise!!

GR8DAY

19-08-2013, 01:14 PM

nice buying by whoever it is. Wish it was me...

Brace yourselves.......

.......only a couple hundred k"s worth but could possibly be worth a mill in a year or three........all things being equal!!

hilskin

19-08-2013, 01:15 PM

Looking very interesting, not sure I will be getting much work done for the rest of the afternoon, refresh button, refresh button.

baller18

19-08-2013, 01:19 PM

Wouldn't getting in after the announcement better? More in depth detail in regards to sales...

Balance

19-08-2013, 01:44 PM

Reads like someone has picked up some titbits of news about PEB and CXxBladder and wants in.

If the shares are going to go to $10.00, who cares about paying 3 cents or 4 cents more?

hilskin

19-08-2013, 01:56 PM

****** ******

removed names incase they do not want to be identified.

hilskin

19-08-2013, 02:04 PM

The medical companies, urological associations and Bladder Cancer advocacy sites.

I could be wrong but I think that is who Pacific Edge like.

hilskin

19-08-2013, 02:15 PM

Ooooh OK, perhaps I should get familiar with Social Websites, sorry, dickhead me.

Easy mistake to make with facebook as it is not that clear. Looking at the people who have liked pacific edge none of those medical co are listed.
Peter is though if that means anything to you:)

Xerof

19-08-2013, 02:44 PM

The 60 cent linefeeder is still there. As you were.

I added today though

Minerbarejet

19-08-2013, 02:54 PM

:)well this thread has certainly woken up today.

Whipmoney

19-08-2013, 03:19 PM

Interesting parcel sizes:

21

2:40:30 pm

60

4,777

$2,866

2

20

2:40:30 pm

60

223

$134

3

19

1:52:41 pm

60

27,000

$16,200

4

18

1:45:12 pm

60

4,000

$2,400

5

17

1:29:20 pm

60

17,777

$10,666

6

16

1:29:20 pm

60

2,223

$1,334

7

15

1:24:47 pm

60

10,000

$6,000

8

14

1:21:25 pm

60

10,000

$6,000

9

13

1:15:27 pm

60

2,777

$1,666

10

12

1:13:12 pm

60

7,223

$4,334

Makes it look like there's one big buyer here. Big seller still in the midst though.

AndyLP

19-08-2013, 03:57 PM

Would like to have visited to see more first hand, what a shame it could not have coincided with the AGM on Wednesday!.

AGM Thursday!

Minerbarejet

19-08-2013, 04:00 PM

Interesting parcel sizes:

21
2:40:30 pm
60
4,777
$2,866

2
20
2:40:30 pm
60
223
$134

3
19
1:52:41 pm
60
27,000
$16,200

4
18
1:45:12 pm
60
4,000
$2,400

5
17
1:29:20 pm
60
17,777
$10,666

6
16
1:29:20 pm
60
2,223
$1,334

7
15
1:24:47 pm
60
10,000
$6,000

8
14
1:21:25 pm
60
10,000
$6,000

9
13
1:15:27 pm
60
2,777
$1,666

10
12
1:13:12 pm
60
7,223
$4,334

Makes it look like there's one big buyer here. Big seller still in the midst though.
Bit weird alright - add 1+2, 5+6 and 9+10 all round up nicely

Xerof

19-08-2013, 04:08 PM

The main buyer was earlier than that - took everything from 57 to almost all of those available at 60 at 12.56.44pm

the rest are since that first burst of buying, in small parcels, and each buy is split due to the residual odd lot carrying over from each offer at 60.

eg I bght 20k, but its in two parcels

GR8DAY

19-08-2013, 04:31 PM

Balance

19-08-2013, 04:38 PM

.....you guys missed all the action at 1:06 today. One buyer took out a single parcel of 333,333 shares in one hit.........WHAMOOOO! (not sure what the significance is of all the 3's?....maybe it's an asian thing.....ie an 8 cut in half?......sorry best I cud think of today)

Someone buying like that must be a newie with news he/she/they simply have to act on.

One of the big drug companies offering to buy PEB?

zymwh

19-08-2013, 04:57 PM

Come on. That just because that big buyer spent 200k

Dentie

19-08-2013, 05:07 PM

Someone buying like that must be a newie with news he/she/they simply have to act on.

One of the big drug companies offering to buy PEB?

Gee Balance, I hope not .... well, not yet anyway!

skid

19-08-2013, 07:15 PM

Man,for the amount of posts ,this share has'nt move much above or below the 60 range--been gone 2 months and its like coming back the next day.

MAC

19-08-2013, 09:27 PM

All good things come to those who are patient, PEB have good management and a well considered product.

The preliminary ducks are in a row, superior technology, all international laboratories now operational, sales staff appointed and underway.

All that is now required is evidence for shareholders and prospective holders that cxbladder sales have commenced in earnest and the business may thus de-risk very quickly, the SP may then rise appropriately.

Let’s see how it all goes on Thursday at the AGM.

Minerbarejet

20-08-2013, 07:54 AM

Man,for the amount of posts ,this share has'nt move much above or below the 60 range--been gone 2 months and its like coming back the next day.Hopefully when you come back in two years time it will have moved a bit or even quite a large bit- preferably up.:)

baller18

21-08-2013, 10:09 AM

The Bollinger bands have been contracted for quite some time now, next trend going up or down? :)

MAC

21-08-2013, 10:14 AM

We would all be quite interested in your assessment Baller, which direction do you think and why, do share ?

baller18

21-08-2013, 10:29 AM

I think the uptrend will depend on sales, so the Bollinger bands could still be contracted for sometime.
An uptrend could be established after the announcement, but it'll be small uptrend, till sales get rolling...
Once again, depends how the market takes the future of sales, so could spike a big uptrend..

MAC

21-08-2013, 10:46 AM

We should all know more tomorrow.

I'm more interested as an investor in primarily receiving FY14 numerical guidance, some feedback on the roll out of the well considered US sales strategy, how many DHB type organisations have been signed up, and advice on any potential tail or head winds.

Short term moves in SP are of no real consequence in the big picture if the growth story remains intact. Would you agree ?

baller18

21-08-2013, 10:55 AM

baller18

21-08-2013, 10:57 AM

Tight BB's indicate a possible breakout up or down, I believe. Since we are 1 day away from AGM I would suggest that the news would be more than likely positive than negative; as to what extent that will impact the market, that is the unknown, but still I wait - no problem for me, one day soon!!
Yup and I see buyers piling up 112,450 at 58cents..