PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

Nt...

Medical tourists for a bladder cancer test. You gotta be joking

Thats not what medical tourism is all about--Its about eye surgery--operations-Root canals etc. (Big cost Items.

You reckon those kind of numbers are worth it? (Catering to the rich really slams the numbers)

Setting up a few selected clinics for loaded foreign tourists for a bladder test? I dont think so.

PEB wouldn't need a large army of salespeople to market its product to a few selected clinics there that want to offer their loaded foreign clients the newest, most reliable and least unpleasant diagnostic procedures. And it's not a question of whether Cxbladder would be covered by a local health insurance scheme - that's irrelevant. Nor would it be necessary to offer Cxbladder at cheap rates to attract the local peasantry. The foreign medical tourists who are the target market will in some cases have their own generous health insurance cover, and in other cases they will simply be willing to pay from their own pockets. If they've spent thousands of dollars travelling to Singapiore for treatment, are they going to argue over the odd couple of hundred dollars difference in price?

If initial inquiries have shown promise, as DD says is the case, I say PEB would be absolutely silly to say "oh no, we have to ignore such opportunities and focus only on waiting for the US bureaucratic machinery to grind into action". No one's saying Singapore or Bangkok will bring the big numbers of tests that could eventually flow from US approvals, but to me it seems like an opportunity not to be ignored.[/QUOTE]

[NT001]

Nt...Medical tourists for a bladder cancer test. You gotta be joking Thats not what medical tourism is all about--Its about eye surgery--operations-Root canals etc. (Big cost Items. You reckon those kind of numbers are worth it? (Catering to the rich really slams the numbers).

No, of course medical tourists are not going to Singapore just for a bladder cancer check, and I certainly wasn't suggesting that special clinics would be set up there for bladder cancer alone. In many cases, patients would go for a range of medical reasons (possibly a complete checkup) of which bladder cancer might be one.

The numbers of such medical tourists are surprisingly high, and we've been told that once you've been identified as a bladder cancer suspect, you need repeated checks.

If you have reason to believe this is a crazy idea, possibly you should let DD know that he's been getting bad info in response to initial inquiries in Singapore.

[Exodia]

No, of course medical tourists are not going to Singapore just for a bladder cancer check, and I certainly wasn't suggesting that special clinics would be set up there for bladder cancer alone. In many cases, patients would go for a range of medical reasons (possibly a complete checkup) of which bladder cancer might be one.

The numbers of such medical tourists are surprisingly high, and we've been told that once you've been identified as a bladder cancer suspect, you need repeated checks.

If you have reason to believe this is a crazy idea, possibly you should let DD know that he's been getting bad info in response to initial inquiries in Singapore.

Singapore entice medical tourists by offering a wide range of medical care from screenings to high-end surgical procedures, specialising in heart surgeries and cancer treatment. They may be pricing themselves out of the market as they claim on their tourism board website that medical expenditure generated from travellers was S$980M in 2011 which was a 14% increase from 2010.. however reports from May this year indicate that in 2012 they generated S$1,110M and this dropped 25% in 2013 to S$832M due to limited government support and hefty competition from the likes of Thailand and Malaysia.

http://www.straitstimes.com/news/business/more-business-stories/story/singapore-losing-medical-tourists-neighbours-20150508
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/consumer/singapores-medical-tourism-sector-facing-strong-headwinds-report

[nextbigthing]

Wonder if PEB has looked at targeting susceptible occupations. Anyone know? Quite a big market there.

I would assume most employers wouldn't be too keen on proving to their staff they're at risk. Much cheaper and easier to make employees sign a contract saying they will protect their own health at all times and give them some cheap face mask etc for the company to cover its a$$.

[nextbigthing]

Singapore, similar in population to NZ, which after a few years and millions of shareholder and taxpayer dollars has cracked a whopping $120K in revenue... Is expanding into Singapore at this stage really a good idea? Or should they perhaps focus on profitability in the massive market of the US (where they've done the groundwork) first and then expand a successful model instead?

"We're really really excited about the opportunity to fly to Singapore business class and investigate some possibilities"

[Casino]

No, of course medical tourists are not going to Singapore just for a bladder cancer check, and I certainly wasn't suggesting that special clinics would be set up there for bladder cancer alone. In many cases, patients would go for a range of medical reasons (possibly a complete checkup) of which bladder cancer might be one.

The numbers of such medical tourists are surprisingly high, and we've been told that once you've been identified as a bladder cancer suspect, you need repeated checks.

If you have reason to believe this is a crazy idea, possibly you should let DD know that he's been getting bad info in response to initial inquiries in Singapore.

Many will disagree with the premise of your argument. I surely feel very stupid for thinking highly of this management. To say that you will expand into additional markets when you can't even match lemonade stands in sales is beyond grasping at straws. It's deception.

[NT001]

Many will disagree with the premise of your argument. I surely feel very stupid for thinking highly of this management. To say that you will expand into additional markets when you can't even match lemonade stands in sales is beyond grasping at straws. It's deception.

You're right Casino, many do seem to disagree, though I don't follow their logic. Those who believe management is so utterly incompetent and engaged in deception will presumably have sold their shares in PEB by now (if they ever had any), and won't be participating in the cap raising. I'm staying in and will be exercising my rights. One thing I like in a company that's finding the going tough in its major target market is a wilingness to show flexibility and explore other possibilities, without taking its eye off the main target..

[Casino]

You're right Casino, many do seem to disagree, though I don't follow their logic. Those who believe management is so utterly incompetent and engaged in deception will presumably have sold their shares in PEB by now (if they ever had any), and won't be participating in the cap raising. I'm staying in and will be exercising my rights. One thing I like in a company that's finding the going tough in its major target market is a wilingness to show flexibility and explore other possibilities, without taking its eye off the main target..

Or is it putting lipstick on a pig? There is just so much that doesn't add up. No traction in any market, no CMS, no takeover interest, no partnerships, etc. The biotech sector is flush with cash and yet nobody comes knocking. On the plus side, it's the right environment and right thing to raise money. A lot of cheap money looking for a home and the relatively small discount is an encouraging sign. Let's hope for holders and the company that they will put it to good use.

[Apathy]

Wonder if PEB has looked at targeting susceptible occupations. Anyone know? Quite a big market there.

I think they are focusing on susceptible shareholders :-)

[couta1]

I think they are focusing on susceptible shareholders :-)
Another week of Troll city-Lol.

[Apathy]

Another week of Troll city-Lol.

here we go humor or dissension = troll - yawn!

From the girl (just guessing but lol seems to be domain of teenage girls) who summarized "NZ urologists(And other specialists) as having dinasaur thinking combined with mule like resistance to change compared to their US counterparts"

I see people banned for being negative but drivel like this is ok? - diminishing the NZ specialists because they don't get on board with a product no one else seems interested in is equal parts ignorance and arrogance.

[couta1]

here we go humor or dissension = troll - yawn!

From the girl (just guessing but lol seems to be domain of teenage girls) who summarized "NZ urologists(And other specialists) as having dinasaur thinking combined with mule like resistance to change compared to their US counterparts"

I see people banned for being negative but drivel like this is ok? - diminishing the NZ specialists because they don't get on board with a product no one else seems interested in is equal parts ignorance and arrogance.

I think 25yrs experience rubbing shoulders with NZ specialists gives me some authority to comment, what's your credentials in the medical world? There are good specialists in NZ but there also many as I described in my post you quoted.

[Schrodinger]

Can someone explain to me how this company has a market cap of $200m with sales of only 100k?

Sure if it was a USA based startup with a huge domestic market it seems possible but a biotech from NZ? What's to stop this heading sub $100m when the next sales announcement fails to deliver?

[Schrodinger]

answers....
A lack of biotech companies to invest in and a CEO who is well trained (at shareholders expense) in PR spin.
Little hope of this small company getting value for money trying to crack the US market on its own(total arrogance and why results are not matching the story being told)
Nothing........... as true value at this stage is $80m-$100m

If I could see a hockey stick then maybe $100M, but lack of one means sub $50m to me alongside its tech peers.

[Carpenterjoe]

Singapore, similar in population to NZ, which after a few years and millions of shareholder and taxpayer dollars has cracked a whopping $120K in revenue... Is expanding into Singapore at this stage really a good idea? Or should they perhaps focus on profitability in the massive market of the US (where they've done the groundwork) first and then expand a successful model instead?

"We're really really excited about the opportunity to fly to Singapore business class and investigate some possibilities"

Hey NB, how big do you think the NZ market is?

My notes have it at 600 new cases annually, so assuming a cost price of $500 and a base of three tests a year over five years,
Safe to say a maximum of $4.5 million for cx bladder detect? So maybe they currently have 1-2% of the NZ market.

The cx bladder triage market is a little harder to calculate,

I would suggest they shouldn't waste there time and effort in New Zealand.

[Apathy]

I think 25yrs experience rubbing shoulders with NZ specialists gives me some authority to comment, what's your credentials in the medical world? There are good specialists in NZ but there also many as I described in my post you quoted.

25 years rubbing shoulders? Masseuse or Physio? My experience is 0 in urology but have extensive experience in other areas of the 'medical world' with several published papers (University and CRO's) as well as a couple of patents.

[Carpenterjoe]

Reciepts from customers was about 1.2 mil,the rest was grants ,interest and foreign exchange gains,so not cash positive for USA(if your talking productive income) actually grants and interest totaled more than reciepts--Thats like saying you are productive because you are receiving unemployment.

R&D is great but the big question remains --can they sell it--Its the door that leads to all the other doors.

If you look at the medical world as a car--PEB is making great strides in making good glove box latches.

Sorry mate, should have been clearer. Yes USA revenue should exceed USA Outgoings at end of year.

[couta1]

25 years rubbing shoulders? Masseuse or Physio? My experience is 0 in urology but have extensive experience in other areas of the 'medical world' with several published papers (University and CRO's) as well as a couple of patents.
Very funny, humour is always good on any thread, General Medicine plus Sports Med for me with some involvement with Urology( Sports related) Cheers.

[skid]

I think 25yrs experience rubbing shoulders with NZ specialists gives me some authority to comment, what's your credentials in the medical world? There are good specialists in NZ but there also many as I described in my post you quoted.

did they teach you about trolls?

[couta1]

did they teach you about trolls?
Yeah you learn all about them in Behavioural Science and I've met quite a few in the flesh but they fitted more of the storybook variety description than the ones that frequent forums such as this:cool:

[nextbigthing]

Tan Tock Seng Hospital User Program for CxbladderNZX-Listed Pacific Edge Limited has taken an important step into accessing the significant South East Asian medical market with the signing, by Pacific Edge, of a User Program agreement with one of Singapore’s largest hospitals.The agreement with Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH) will see the trial use of Pacific Edge’s signature Cxbladder product Cxbladder Detect on a significant number of patients. The User Program allows the urology team at Tan Tock Seng to gain a full understanding of Cxbladder on their patients in their clinical settings. The company is expecting to work with several other leading hospitals and clinics in Singapore on the way to a full rollout of a commercial operation there.Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David Darling said: “Singapore is an important beachhead market for us. Tan Tock Seng Hospital is one of a number of major hospitals in the South East Asian region that we are looking to partner with. Certainly we see South East Asia as an important area of growth for us and the early work we have completed shows strong promise. Some of the funds we are looking to raise through our recently announced underwritten rights issue will be applied to driving the commercialisation of Cxbladder, along with our other cancer diagnostic products, in this region.”Brent Pownall, Pacific Edge Diagnostics NZ, Commercial Directors says “Like most regions around the globe bladder cancer is a real issue in SE Asia. We are delighted to work with such a high profile hospital like TTSH in Singapore as we learn more about our products in this region. Apart from the expected local demand for people presenting with haematuria there is also an extremely large and growing medical tourism market in South East Asia where patients seek an annual wellness check-up. A Cxbladder Triage test could be a potential addition to the wellness work-up for these people. In 2012 there were approximately 350,000 medical tourists visiting Singapore; in 2014 the number grew to more than 900,000. Estimates are that this number will reach 1.4 million by 2018. So there is significant opportunity here for us.”

[Tsuba]

O no another good anouncement. That will shag the SP.

[trader_jackson]

Yes, to right, another good announcement (certainly no argument that it is 'bad'), market barely seems to react to it. Almost like MRP at the moment, lots of rainfall, rising electricity usage (naturally occurring in winter), share price continues to dive.

This market is most interesting...

[winner69]

O no another good anouncement. That will shag the SP.

Not when they see 1.4 million medical tourists in 2018 and figure out what that means

[whatsup]

Another brick in the wall.

Slowly, slowly catch the monkey.

Et al, et al !!

[skid]

Not when they see 1.4 million medical tourists in 2018 and figure out what that means

My doctor wrote me out an order for some blood tests--I think I might buy a ticket to Singapore to get them done:)

This medical tourism thing cracks me up:) If your in Singapore ,and feel you want a check up or want a test,then its a great place to go do it,in between doing what you do on vacation.-but you dont GO to Singapore for a diagnostic test.

Its a trial, in a market like NZ (approx)---put it in the file..

[nextbigthing]

Not when they see 1.4 million medical tourists in 2018 and figure out what that means

You're missing the bigger picture Winner. NZ population 4M give or take.

1.4M tourists/4M x$120000 (nz revenue) = $42000.

That's another $42000 in the hat.

$42000 / $1.9M = 2.2% growth just like that!

2.2% x 365 = 800% growth

Step right up and get your shares

[nextbigthing]

Furthermore, $42000 / $5500 per business class trip to Singapore = 7 more trips!

[Baa_Baa]

Medical tourist doesn't need a bladder cancer test for a Facelift and Tummy tuck.

[skid]

Since we are on this hilarious side bar--I must say that Medical tourism is something worth considering (for those things that merit it) Ive had a number of root canals and crowns done in Thailand and have a friend who had a rather involved eye surgery and was happy with the results and the savings of thousands. (obviously you have to go to the reputable places for treatment)

[Tsuba]

I think the efficiency and quality of the big health systems in Asia outshines NZ by miles.

A friend of mine got a hernia operation done in Bangkok. No waiting list at all. In and out job done 100%.

[NT001]

Dear Mr Darling
I refer to your news release of today’s date. At the risk of being reported to STMod, may I point out that several contributors on this thread will say this just proves you are a complete idiot and don’t have the slightest idea how to run an offshore sales programme.

I am reliably informed you don’t even know how to match the sales of a lemonade stall, yet here you are wasting shareholders’ money trying to do deals with leading hospitals in Singapore of all places! Actually I have been in contact with a guy who holidays frequently in Northern Thailand, and he says that even if this so-called Tan Tock Seng hospital exists, none of its patients would be able to afford the ridiculous amounts you will no doubt be charging. Dammit, they don't even have health insurance.

Oh, I see, this is just a “trial”. So will you be giving the tests away? Just handing out freebies at our expense? Lucky you. You say it’s “an important beachhead” for entry to the SE Asian regional market. That’s a dead giveaway – you’re going up there to lie on the beach.

You say you’re also “expecting” to work with other leading hospitals and clinics in Singapore. Fact is, you’re just inventing a pretext for taking business-class trips to a tropical resort at sharepayer expense, as some of my well-informed interlocutors have suggested.

I hope you’ll spend your time on the beach absorbing the advice expressed on ShareTrader that we don’t want you succeeding in Singapore. The whole scheme runs completely counter to the considered view of the experts on this site that the SE Asian idea is just a crazy diversion from the programme in the US. In fact it’s just a DECEPTION!!! See? We do not wish to be proved wrong. Please just put your blinkers back on and concentrate solely on your failed sales programme in the USA.

PS: Hope you're taking your melanoma detection kit with you on the beach.

[winner69]

Dear Mr Darling
I refer to your news release of today’s date. At the risk of being reported to STMod, may I point out that several contributors on this thread will say this just proves you are a complete idiot and don’t have the slightest idea how to run an offshore sales programme.

I am reliably informed you don’t even know how to match the sales of a lemonade stall, yet here you are wasting shareholders’ money trying to do deals with leading hospitals in Singapore of all places! Actually I have been in contact with a guy who holidays frequently in Northern Thailand, and he says that even if this so-called Tan Tock Seng hospital exists, none of its patients would be able to afford the ridiculous amounts you will no doubt be charging. Dammit, they don't even have health insurance.

Oh, I see, this is just a “trial”. So will you be giving the tests away? Just handing out freebies at our expense? Lucky you. You say it’s “an important beachhead” for entry to the SE Asian regional market. That’s a dead giveaway – you’re going up there to lie on the beach.

You say you’re also “expecting” to work with other leading hospitals and clinics in Singapore. Fact is, you’re just inventing a pretext for taking business-class trips to a tropical resort at sharepayer expense, as some of my well-informed interlocutors have suggested.

I hope you’ll spend your time on the beach absorbing the advice expressed on ShareTrader that we don’t want you succeeding in Singapore. The whole scheme runs completely counter to the considered view of the experts on this site that the SE Asian idea is just a crazy diversion from the programme in the US. In fact it’s just a DECEPTION!!! See? We do not wish to be proved wrong. Please just put your blinkers back on and concentrate solely on your failed sales programme in the USA.

PS: Hope you're taking your melanoma detection kit with you on the beach.

You sound a bit grumpy mate ....but then again u could be happy as.

[stoploss]

I think the efficiency and quality of the big health systems in Asia outshines NZ by miles.

A friend of mine got a hernia operation done in Bangkok. No waiting list at all. In and out job done 100%.

Let me guess came back a woman ?

[Crackity]

And had a name change to Caitlyn?

[winner69]

And had a name change to Caitlyn?


And girls can jump further than boys eh

[Baa_Baa]

Let me guess came back a woman ?

and get a FREE bladder cancer check while you're at it.

[Tsuba]

Not much point being here anymore I think. See ya later......

[Crackity]

Normal service will resume soon......

Ok - here we go - answers on a postcard please - what % of shares will the underwriters be taking up from the rights issue?

[Carpenterjoe]

So I've spent a few hours trying to figure this Singapore thing out,

Read their out of date medical guidelines.
Noted their Guidelines are very similar to the English.
TTSH is one of four major public hospitals. It sees around 2500 patients a day. If my numbers are correct its 250 more than the CDHB.
Its interesting they see more patients and have 2000 less staff.

Very difficult getting great information on medical tourism.

https://www.stb.gov.sg/industries/healthcare


I'm getting a little perplexed at the location.

But,

its pretty cool this test can be flown from Singapore to Dunedin. (Not sure of freight overheads.)
What's stopping us flying tests in from Japan, China, Russia, South Korea or India.
This product isn't limited by language.

[Minerbarejet]

Dear Mr Darling
I refer to your news release of today’s date. At the risk of being reported to STMod, may I point out that several contributors on this thread will say this just proves you are a complete idiot and don’t have the slightest idea how to run an offshore sales programme.

I am reliably informed you don’t even know how to match the sales of a lemonade stall, yet here you are wasting shareholders’ money trying to do deals with leading hospitals in Singapore of all places! Actually I have been in contact with a guy who holidays frequently in Northern Thailand, and he says that even if this so-called Tan Tock Seng hospital exists, none of its patients would be able to afford the ridiculous amounts you will no doubt be charging. Dammit, they don't even have health insurance.

Oh, I see, this is just a “trial”. So will you be giving the tests away? Just handing out freebies at our expense? Lucky you. You say it’s “an important beachhead” for entry to the SE Asian regional market. That’s a dead giveaway – you’re going up there to lie on the beach.

You say you’re also “expecting” to work with other leading hospitals and clinics in Singapore. Fact is, you’re just inventing a pretext for taking business-class trips to a tropical resort at sharepayer expense, as some of my well-informed interlocutors have suggested.

I hope you’ll spend your time on the beach absorbing the advice expressed on ShareTrader that we don’t want you succeeding in Singapore. The whole scheme runs completely counter to the considered view of the experts on this site that the SE Asian idea is just a crazy diversion from the programme in the US. In fact it’s just a DECEPTION!!! See? We do not wish to be proved wrong. Please just put your blinkers back on and concentrate solely on your failed sales programme in the USA.

PS: Hope you're taking your melanoma detection kit with you on the beach.
Excellent work NT. Sarcasm at its best.

[nextbigthing]

Welcome back Minerbarejet. Or is that minerbannedyet? :)

Anyway, NT001, you obviously think Singapore is a good move, fair enough. What's your theory behind supporting it, do you have some numbers you'd be kind enough to share? Sure it's a beachhead to Asia, but do the numbers stack up?

How about you New Guy and Miner, your thoughts?

[skid]

Dear Mr Darling
I refer to your news release of today’s date. At the risk of being reported to STMod, may I point out that several contributors on this thread will say this just proves you are a complete idiot and don’t have the slightest idea how to run an offshore sales programme.

I am reliably informed you don’t even know how to match the sales of a lemonade stall, yet here you are wasting shareholders’ money trying to do deals with leading hospitals in Singapore of all places! Actually I have been in contact with a guy who holidays frequently in Northern Thailand, and he says that even if this so-called Tan Tock Seng hospital exists, none of its patients would be able to afford the ridiculous amounts you will no doubt be charging. Dammit, they don't even have health insurance.

Oh, I see, this is just a “trial”. So will you be giving the tests away? Just handing out freebies at our expense? Lucky you. You say it’s “an important beachhead” for entry to the SE Asian regional market. That’s a dead giveaway – you’re going up there to lie on the beach.

You say you’re also “expecting” to work with other leading hospitals and clinics in Singapore. Fact is, you’re just inventing a pretext for taking business-class trips to a tropical resort at sharepayer expense, as some of my well-informed interlocutors have suggested.

I hope you’ll spend your time on the beach absorbing the advice expressed on ShareTrader that we don’t want you succeeding in Singapore. The whole scheme runs completely counter to the considered view of the experts on this site that the SE Asian idea is just a crazy diversion from the programme in the US. In fact it’s just a DECEPTION!!! See? We do not wish to be proved wrong. Please just put your blinkers back on and concentrate solely on your failed sales programme in the USA.

PS: Hope you're taking your melanoma detection kit with you on the beach.

Actually ,Northern Thailand is just one of the places--Ill send you a ''wish you were here'' to cheer you up if you like:):)

[NT001]

NT001, you obviously think Singapore is a good move, fair enough. What's your theory behind supporting it, do you have some numbers you'd be kind enough to share? Sure it's a beachhead to Asia, but do the numbers stack up?

No of course I don't have "numbers" myself, but DD has given some, for example in his online shareholder presentation. They indicate there's a worthwhile number of potential patients. But those who appear to oppose any attempt to open up this market would demand far more than that, including precise details of how much will be earned (net) for each test done, etc, and the air fares involved. Apart from the fact that much of this would be commercially sensitive, how would I possibly know? Can you name a company that submits "numbers" publicly to its shareholders for any new deal before going ahead with it?

Some contributors on this thread are steadfastly opposed to anything that DD does and have hangups about him claiming expenses for an air fare, but I am in PEB for a longer haul, not instant 100% success. If I had no confidence in the competence of PEB's management I obviously wouldn't be holding its shares.

DD has also made the point that taking up the Singapore opportunity has other potential benefits in terms of exposure of PEB's product and experience in international markets other than the US. The US market is potentially big but it's not necessarily a model for developing markets elsewhere.

I simply don't accept the notion that until PEB has begun reporting net positive returns from that market, which may yet take a year or two or three for all I know (and may conceivably not happen at all if other products beat Cxbladder in the race for acceptance), it should turn a completely blind eye to all other opportunities elsewhere. What's the rationale for that?

[Whitebeard]

Yahoo analysts have updated revenue estimates.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=PEB.NZ

[skid]

No of course I don't have "numbers" myself, but DD has given some, for example in his online shareholder presentation. They indicate there's a worthwhile number of potential patients. But those who appear to oppose any attempt to open up this market would demand far more than that, including precise details of how much will be earned (net) for each test done, etc, and the air fares involved. Apart from the fact that much of this would be commercially sensitive, how would I possibly know? Can you name a company that submits "numbers" publicly to its shareholders for any new deal before going ahead with it?

Some contributors on this thread are steadfastly opposed to anything that DD does and have hangups about him claiming expenses for an air fare, but I am in PEB for a longer haul, not instant 100% success. If I had no confidence in the competence of PEB's management I obviously wouldn't be holding its shares.

DD has also made the point that taking up the Singapore opportunity has other potential benefits in terms of exposure of PEB's product and experience in international markets other than the US. The US market is potentially big but it's not necessarily a model for developing markets elsewhere.

I simply don't accept the notion that until PEB has begun reporting net positive returns from that market, which may yet take a year or two or three for all I know (and may conceivably not happen at all if other products beat Cxbladder in the race for acceptance), it should turn a completely blind eye to all other opportunities elsewhere. What's the rationale for that?


They indicate their are worthwhile numbers..I indicated the population and wondered how they came up with that.
Maybe if they fly the tests it might work?? how much would that add to costs?? Do those questions seem reasonable--(I like to have a good look at things like that rather than take the Gurus word for it) Maybe I could go see him in Singapore and have a chat (probably wouldnt be able to afford staying at the same hotel that you guys put him up in though.)

Your into PEB for the long haul...Great (everyone has their strategy)--That argument that ''management knows what they are doing'' is wearing a bit thin though ATM---There have been enough cock ups that many want to see some evidence of this now. Fair enough?

[skid]

Yahoo analysts have updated revenue estimates.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=PEB.NZ

WOW! Almost to their 100mil goal! (hows that for sarcasm Miner)

[BlackPeter]

Yahoo analysts have updated revenue estimates.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=PEB.NZ

Wow - I guess the revenue estimate for 2016 is similar to Edison's (8.9m vs 8.4m). However the 2017 estimate (25.7m) appears to be quite optimistic. I guess if it is true (and if PEB turns in 2017 really cash positive as the analyst seems to assume), than the share is currently ways undervalued.

However - would be nice to understand what assumptions the analyst used to come up with this number.

[trader_jackson]

What I am finding interesting is that over the past few weeks, is that despite small, incremental improvements, from 'ok/good' results, to little announcements like yesterday, to 3 separate analyst [that I have now seen, probably more] being upbeat about the stock, to capital raising cash to keep the balance sheet strong [in the right way as well], people still can't get even remotely excited about the stock... maybe once the capital raising is finished (late this month?) people will then realize "its not all bad".

To me, it seems like in the background, slowly all the dots are being joined together...

[skid]

After the capital raising is exactly when things could get ugly--It really depends on how many take up the issue--If alot dont,then the underwriters will be ''caught'' with alot of shares that they then will have to unload.
If all goes well with the cap raising,as you are no doubt hoping,then it should be a safer situation.
This is a dangerous period where newbies should use caution.
There will be plenty of time to have another look if things settle into safer territory.

The SP sitting 1c over the cap issue price is not a great sign

[nextbigthing]

For the sake of a balanced argument. The underwriters get a measly 1.5% or so. $34M x 1.5% = $500k roughly.

Potentially being left with all that stock for the sake of $500k is hardly worth it right, unless....... you know something we don't.

Would an underwriter jump in potentially with $34M waving about and just hand it over? No way. You'd want to know a decent amount about everything before signing up, be kept in the loop very closely.

So if they have confidence with more information, maybe we should too?

PS I certainly hope they didn't throw up to $34M at an 'exciting opportunity in Singapore' :D

[skid]

From where im sitting its looking very dangerous for the underwriters--(Its just a few cents away from the issue price) If many dont think the small(1c?)value equals the risk of shares having to be dumped then they could not be blamed for passing on this one.

In terms of the underwriters having inside knowledge--I think that may be illegal--I wouldnt think PEB would go out on that limb again after their recent problems.

If you have confidence (faith?) from something that obscure then go for it--but basically what we are seeing in terms of hard cold facts,is that the SP is very close to the issue price that the underwriters are financing---This goes beyond what holders are hoping come to pass in terms of fundamentals and projections.--Would you talk your best friend into investing ATM?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I would no longer touch this stock until I see major sales.

I lose count of the promises that have been made and then never spoken of again. This should ring alarm bells! Without going too far back (look back in history, the false promises are endless), remember how Spain was going to take off, but then PEB made no mention of it as it failed. Then there was Australia. And then there was the previous capital raising taking them through to profitability. This is where my main issue lies. They have made no mention of why that has failed to take them to profitability. Why aren't you shareholders demanding answers to such a simple question that any investor must want to know about their company. Don't even get me started about the false claims made to media and questionable trading practices. Does anyone see a trend? If not, open your eyes! YOUR company is bull****ing you.

I'm not questioning PEB's product. But come on, management have failed shareholders time and time again and have never given reasons why they have failed (or made excuses). Management should have some balls and tell the owners of company they are running. This stock should not be touched based on the incompetent management.

[trader_jackson]

I see now that many people have lost confidence in management, and have presented very good arguments, which I understand and thank them for sharing (it all helps) in fact I remember a while back people arguing that the product isn't good and/or much better products already exist... seems in more recent times this has subsided.

The way I see it is that I would rather have "bad" (or at least as some people would believe) management with a great product, than great management trying to sell a dud (because we all know long term that doesn't work).

Ultimately, I would think it is hard for management to make reliable estimates being in a speculative sector where things can quite literally change overnight, if it had been listed on the NZX for 20 years + (and therefore a much more mature company), then I could understand investors frustration in management. But given PEB has only been on the NZX for just over 10 years, of which only relatively recently (last couple of years) has it turned more commercial, I'm going to "let management off", but only just.

But in say 5-10 years time if things have not materialized (ie sales numbers simply not there) then and only then (I believe) can one say management are "bad"... who knows, maybe 3-4 years from now, when PEB should be around $100m in Revenues the arguments management are "bad" will subside...

PS: I always like this thread, very interesting seeing everyone's ideas (and I like to present mine)

[trader_jackson]

Well I said "bad" because I personally don't believe management are, and if they were on the "bad" side I think it would be alot easier (and cheaper) to improve management that to try improve the product (although this could be disputed).

I think DD has great knowledge of his product, his company, and what he needs to be done. He (and management) may not be the best at making predictions, and as soon as "he is off track" it seems everyone jumps on explaining how "bad" management is without even giving them much of a chance (remember its only be a more 'commercial' operations for 1-2 years, not 10-20 or more, we aren't talking about New Zealand Oil and Gas!)

As I said before, I look forward to looking back at PEB in 5-10 years, as I think it is only then can people begin to comment on if management is "bad"

After all... "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

[Whitebeard]

Looks like collecting money in the US health system is like wading through mud..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-10/why-america-s-2-9-trillion-medical-industry-still-runs-on-paper-payments

[winner69]

'Bad' or 'good' management is not the way to look at it. It's more about management capability.

Nobody has questioned PEB capability of coming up with a product and getting it used. after all they are essentially scientists and they have successfully commercialsed it, yes the product is being used.

Several have questioned PEB capability of actually making money out of it, especially in the USA. From all accounts (even Balance noted this) the Board recognised Darlings deficiencies in this area (you can't be perfect) and beefed up the necessary capability in Pedusa.

If so is that 'bad' management. Maybe the challenges in the USA are just to great to overcome, especially for a non-USA product.

Is a worry about this global expansion, taking the world by storm. That again is. New set of capabilities which I doubt PEB really has at the current time.

[BlackPeter]

After the capital raising is exactly when things could get ugly--It really depends on how many take up the issue--If alot dont,then the underwriters will be ''caught'' with alot of shares that they then will have to unload.
If all goes well with the cap raising,as you are no doubt hoping,then it should be a safer situation.
This is a dangerous period where newbies should use caution.
There will be plenty of time to have another look if things settle into safer territory.

The SP sitting 1c over the cap issue price is not a great sign

Agreed - a moderate plunge below the issue price wouldn't be unexpected - and, unless something happens soon to raise the SP, actually quite likely. I never can understand people who buy into a share (be it IPO or CR) and sell immediately after with a loss - but given that it happens frequently, it does seem to be a quite prevailing investment strategy ;).

Not sure though, whether I expect things to turn "ugly" soon (depends obviously on your definition of this word). Remember - they still have a good product - and after the IPO they have as well enough money to keep them going for another handful of years ... so don't expect a crash and burn ... more a moderate dip and moderate rise afterwards (obviously - all other things being unchanged)

Discl: hold (a small parcel) and not yet sure whether I want to exercise my options (depends obviously on the SP).

[skid]

Well I said "bad" because I personally don't believe management are, and if they were on the "bad" side I think it would be alot easier (and cheaper) to improve management that to try improve the product (although this could be disputed).

I think DD has great knowledge of his product, his company, and what he needs to be done. He (and management) may not be the best at making predictions, and as soon as "he is off track" it seems everyone jumps on explaining how "bad" management is without even giving them much of a chance (remember its only be a more 'commercial' operations for 1-2 years, not 10-20 or more, we aren't talking about New Zealand Oil and Gas!)

As I said before, I look forward to looking back at PEB in 5-10 years, as I think it is only then can people begin to comment on if management is "bad"

After all... "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." - Niels Bohr

TJ,I realize you are new to this having just joined,but really,thats not much of an argument to invest at this time--As I speak shares are selling on market at the same price as the Cap raising offer(a drop of 1 more cent and they will be chaper on the open market than the cap raise.
I doubt if the underwriters will allow this to continue but once the issue is closed it could get ugly.
Why on earth would you take that kind of risk?
We may very well be seeing the 50s when that happens.
It doesnt mean the company is written off,but atm it may well be overvalued.
Thats easy to miss for those who were involved when it fetched 1.70 but comparing is flawed logic.
You have to start from now. Its looking like its going to be a slow grind.
We dont seem to be in that situation where the SP can rocket any moment and get in before you miss the boat(theres actually more of a chance of the opposite at this stage.
Its a good time to stand back and wait till the dust clears.
With a 4-5yr outlook you have all the time in the world(even at the pidilly term dep rates you could easily get 20% on your dosh in that time period) Cool heads prevail

[skid]

Agreed - a moderate plunge below the issue price wouldn't be unexpected - and, unless something happens soon to raise the SP, actually quite likely. I never can understand people who buy into a share (be it IPO or CR) and sell immediately after with a loss - but given that it happens frequently, it does seem to be a quite prevailing investment strategy ;).

Not sure though, whether I expect things to turn "ugly" soon (depends obviously on your definition of this word). Remember - they still have a good product - and after the IPO they have as well enough money to keep them going for another handful of years ... so don't expect a crash and burn ... more a moderate dip and moderate rise afterwards (obviously - all other things being unchanged)

Discl: hold (a small parcel) and not yet sure whether I want to exercise my options (depends obviously on the SP).

''Ugly'' was only in relation to the SP in this instance--It could plunge before stabilizing --for those not holding it should be a far easier decision than for those holding(although for those holding the cap raise may still be an easy decision)

[RTM]

"PS: I always like this thread..etc"
Agreed TJ. I have a few of these shares at about $1.00. I really really hope they succeed, but its going to be really tough for them to crack USA.
Will not be participating in the Cash Raise, but will ride it all the way up (or down) as the case may be with my fingers crossed. I am in it for the long term and knew when I went in it was highly speculative. Wouldn't it be great to have an NZ Biotech company succeeding in a Hi Tech area like this ?

What is scary to me is how many times Snaps has been right on the money with his comments.

Good luck to us all.
Cheers
RTM


Still

[skid]

One thing I have to credit management for is going through an underwriter for the cap raising--that protects the company,but potentially at the expense of the SP.
There are alot of buys stacked at .61 and not so much after. I can only guess but it would make sense that the underwriters are involved.(obviously a key number) They need to get it back up a bit ,but first step is to stop it going below?

[blackcap]

One thing I have to credit management for is going through an underwriter for the cap raising--that protects the company,but potentially at the expense of the SP.
There are alot of buys stacked at .61 and not so much after. I can only guess but it would make sense that the underwriters are involved.(obviously a key number) They need to get it back up a bit ,but first step is to stop it going below?

Problem with this is... that the underwriters potentially pick up a lot of shares on market at 61 cents which they would then later have to dispose of. Its a bit of a damned if you do, damned if you don't exercise one feels.

[nextbigthing]

I didn't see any statement from DD this time claiming this raise would take them through to profitability. That's a bit scary.

[Minerbarejet]

With all the good,bad and ugly going on here I'm expecting Clint Eastwood to show up soon to sort things out.

[skid]

yes not a great position to be in for share holders or the underwriter but the underwriters would have done their homework first, before setting the 61 cps level and would have had a reasonable portion of larger shareholders indicate they will take up the issue at these levels before they underwrote the issue.
In saying this PEB 2 biggest share holders only own a combined total of 9.5% of the company........ then the next 5 only average 2% each.....
It does look like they(the underwriters) are going to have to support the share price right through till expiry date unless PEB can pull out one of it's well timed announcement but PEB don't have to hype up the share price at the moment as the issue of shares is fully underwritten by the broker so PEB get the money they are after no matter what.
Me thinks the underwriters will take a bath on this one.

I wonder if that ''indication'' is under any circumstances ,even a loss.---That .61 is getting eaten away as the day goes on.

[blobbles]

If the market cap were to remain the same after the share dilution, SP will slide to 52c. Will still be a 200m mkt cap, which others have suggested is too high (and I agree with this as well now after recent activity). In all seriousness, I see no reason why it won't be revalued to 100m without a decent announcement or two. That would be SP=27c. 100m mkt cap still isn't bad considering the risk/rewards in my book, so even then it wouldn't be the end of the world. Wouldn't look at investing in them again until something changes though.

[blackcap]

If the market cap were to remain the same after the share dilution, SP will slide to 52c. Will still be a 200m mkt cap, which others have suggested is too high (and I agree with this as well now after recent activity). In all seriousness, I see no reason why it won't be revalued to 100m without a decent announcement or two. That would be SP=27c. 100m mkt cap still isn't bad considering the risk/rewards in my book, so even then it wouldn't be the end of the world. Wouldn't look at investing in them again until something changes though.

I might have to ask you why would market cap remain the same after the rights issue? Market cap should increase because they have new cash to play with. The market for what its worth is saying today that they expect the share price to be 61-62 after the issue because it has already gone ex.
Another issue that PEB are going to have potentially is dropping out of the NZX 50 as they are at present borderline at best.

[BlackPeter]

If the market cap were to remain the same after the share dilution, SP will slide to 52c. Will still be a 200m mkt cap, which others have suggested is too high (and I agree with this as well now after recent activity). In all seriousness, I see no reason why it won't be revalued to 100m without a decent announcement or two. That would be SP=27c. 100m mkt cap still isn't bad considering the risk/rewards in my book, so even then it wouldn't be the end of the world. Wouldn't look at investing in them again until something changes though.

Always aware of people throwing numbers around without any backing and justification. This is true for PEB management (given their "100 million turnover 5 years after product release"), but as well for some of the posters here. I asked before on this thread (and didn't get any answer) ... why do some of the so articulate posters here believe that is $100m is the "right" market cap? Why not $50m, $200m (as the market suggests) or $400m (as analyst consensus would suggest)?

Numbers don't turn true just because they are endlessly repeated ... not even if it is the magical "$100m". So - could we have some background on this number, please - or is the purpose of this thread really just to annoy stmod?

[skid]

Always aware of people throwing numbers around without any backing and justification. This is true for PEB management (given their "100 million turnover 5 years after product release"), but as well for some of the posters here. I asked before on this thread (and didn't get any answer) ... why do some of the so articulate posters here believe that is $100m is the "right" market cap? Why not $50m, $200m (as the market suggests) or $400m (as analyst consensus would suggest)?

Numbers don't turn true just because they are endlessly repeated ... not even if it is the magical "$100m". So - could we have some background on this number, please - or is the purpose of this thread really just to annoy stmod?

The market cap is simply determined by multiplying the number of shares by the SP--Its the amount invested in a company (for better or worse)

Some make a guess on what the company is really worth,or what the SP should really be,but thats different than market Cap.

The market Cap would of course go up or down depending on which guess was correct.

[BlackPeter]

The market cap is simply determined by multiplying the number of shares by the SP--Its the amount invested in a company (for better or worse)

Some make a guess on what the company is really worth,or what the SP should really be,but thats different than market Cap.

Hi skid, thanks ... though I know what the market cap is (and how to compute it). Just questioning the habit of some posters of plucking numbers out of thin air without providing any justification. Surely - anybody can do this, but how does it help to improve this discussion?

If people do question the validity of the current market cap (or SP), than they could add value by explaining how the arrived at their conclusion. One could e.g. provide examples of comparable other companies - or provide the basis for ones DCF calculation - or by citing the source of their estimation.

Just running down a company because it is currently out of fashion and others like to do it as well is a bit sad ... but hey - everybody to his/her own.

[skid]

I might have to ask you why would market cap remain the same after the rights issue? Market cap should increase because they have new cash to play with. The market for what its worth is saying today that they expect the share price to be 61-62 after the issue because it has already gone ex.
Another issue that PEB are going to have potentially is dropping out of the NZX 50 as they are at present borderline at best.

I think the market is disregarding the rights issue because it is essentially the same as the SP atm--So now its a matter of who takes up the rights and what kind of repercussions the result causes--from an objective point of view its an interesting scenario.

Your right I believe. The market Cap should increase because there is more money put into the company,although this will obviously change if the SP falls.

[skid]

Hi skid, thanks ... though I know what the market cap is (and how to compute it). Just questioning the habit of some posters of plucking numbers out of thin air without providing any justification. Surely - anybody can do this, but how does it help to improve this discussion?

If people do question the validity of the current market cap (or SP), than they could add value by explaining how the arrived at their conclusion. One could e.g. provide examples of comparable other companies - or provide the basis for ones DCF calculation - or by citing the source of their estimation.

Just running down a company because it is currently out of fashion and others like to do it as well is a bit sad ... but hey - everybody to his/her own.

I see what your getting at (sorry misjudged your post)--Its true ,any projection without any sort of reason why, does not really help--Some claim $2--others 50c or less.
Some have stated reasons,

Awhile back I made a comparison with NAN (an Australian Biotek) that had a similar market cap at the time.
It was further along on its growth curve in terms of reference, showing the importance of having a distributor.

Since then the SP has increased substantially but you could go back to around Nov. to compare---Main difference is that they had a better market strategy in terms of selling the product.(They were partnered up with some big names)
Although they are very different products,they like PEB,are also the best in their field,but have brought it to the market in very different ways.
They also had a cap raising ,but the SP was on the way up and it was over subscribed almost immediately.

You can go have a look if you like and draw your own conclusions.
.

[blackcap]

On another note I see a large supportive bid has appeared for the shares......fairly predictable that the underwriter would do this.

Is it a bid for 500k? I like where it is placed :) It would be interesting to see what happened to this bid if support at 61 was eroded...

[skid]

Meanwhile the ''rights poll''is languishing on page three. You can count the ''accepts'' on one hand.

its most likely going to be up to the institutions on the fate of the underwriters.--Looks like we will be in a holding pattern until the rights issue closes---Most likely outcome--If successful, SP stays range bound(until news one way or the other)---If unsuccessful(and underwriters are stuck with shares) then a drop to the unknown.
Once things have settled one way or the other,then I believe it will be a long road,until at least 2016 when the KP results come and we find out if the get CMS coverage (Of course theres no guarantee results will come when they say or how long before they get CMS coverage and what kind of a price will be struck(in terms of profit)
There will be more ''on track'' announcements ,and a few more ''patents in somewhere like Viet Nam'' etc. but Im guessing we'll need a couple more half and end of year financial announcements to see if things are really on track.---The initial story with 5 year goal is history. Its more a matter if they can become a slow solid earner and continue to stay ahead of competitors on the life saving products--(this would be far easier with a decent income to finance the R&D)

The scientists have done an outstanding job developing a great product--Some of the posters have done an excellent job on educating us and helping us understand the science behind the product.--but in my opinion the emphasis is now shifting on how to successfully commercialize the product and I believe the subject of posts will start to reflect on this next step more as time goes on.

First step is Cap Raising (in terms of share holders assets) the story will continue regardless of the SP so it will be interesting to watch.

[trader_jackson]

hmm interesting: how much is being traded today, how much is now up for sale at the low range, how many people have been pouring in sell orders.

The general consensus (I thought) is for 60-70% of people to take up there rights issue, with only a small number actually choosing to do nothing (ie not accept and leave with underwriter)

Does somebody in the market know something others don't?
(Seems (almost) out of the ordinary the amount of activity that has been occurring today alone..)

(And I'm not sure who is suddenly so desperate to get out - don't they know worst time to sell is in at the bottom? [which I believe it is near/at])

[blackcap]

hmm interesting: how much is being traded today, how much is now up for sale at the low range, how many people have been pouring in sell orders.

The general consensus (I thought) is for 60-70% of people to take up there rights issue, with only a small number actually choosing to do nothing (ie not accept and leave with underwriter)

Does somebody in the market know something others don't?
(Seems (almost) out of the ordinary the amount of activity that has been occurring today alone..)

(And I'm not sure who is suddenly so desperate to get out - don't they know worst time to sell is in at the bottom? [which I believe it is near/at])

I have no idea mate but at this rate no one is going to take up their rights and the underwriter will have to take all of them....

[Harvey Specter]

I have no idea mate but at this rate no one is going to take up their rights and the underwriter will have to take all of them....Underwriter must be sh!ting themselves. If they try and support the shareprice by buying, they risk ended up with even more on their hands if people still decide not to take up. Meanwhile, as a hold, why take up as there will be a huge overhang as the underwriter struggles to exit meaning you will easily be able to buy on market cheaper. Is my overly simplistic logic right?

[RTM]

Underwriter must be sh!ting themselves. If they try and support the shareprice by buying, they risk ended up with even more on their hands if people still decide not to take up. Meanwhile, as a hold, why take up as there will be a huge overhang as the underwriter struggles to exit meaning you will easily be able to buy on market cheaper. Is my overly simplistic logic right?

Yes....would be interesting to read the full text of the underwriting agreement. See 6.2 of the offer document, c d & e, for a summary of the principle terms.

[winner69]

Still 2 weeks to go .... she'll be OK on the day (for the underwriters)

[nextbigthing]

All that risk for just $500k for the underwriters. Interesting call.

[skid]

Still 2 weeks to go .... she'll be OK on the day (for the underwriters)

We are out of the ''science and quality of the product'' territory and in to the ''speculation of the market'' territory now.

There are some big numbers on the depth especially at the top of both buy and sell--but despite your faith W69 its looking like a more difficult task for the underwriters atm.

I suppose some could look at this as a possible chance to buy cheap if they are supporters, if things get worse. The way I see it ,the companys ok ,its the underwriter and the SH that are taking the risk atm.

Someone is putting some big numbers to keep the SP from hitting the psychological 50s --It would be interesting to know just how the underwriters are playing this--its clearly a position they do not want to be in. ---While this continues on ,they either cut their losses and hope it all works out, or throw some serious dosh to get the SP back up and instill confidence. (If I was them I'd be hoping for low volume to make it easier to influence the SP)
It would be very interesting to hear the story somewhere down the line in the future (but I doubt we ever will)
Might be awhile before we get back to fundamentals.

I would imagine though that PEB will try to pull something out of the hat in the meantime in the way of a ''feel good'' announcement.

[drcjp]

If I may, some perspective on this type of investment. Biotech takes a long time; Biosite, a marker company in San Diego took 23 years to get to reasonable turnover (US$300M). Boston Heart Diagnostics is 30 years and just now cutting US$80M p.a. A biomarker company that I have some more personal knowledge of, Critical Diagnostics, is similar to PE and has one main marker. It has been around for 16 years and is now cracking US$20M p.a.

The ideas, science and products behind PE are solid. It simply needs time and consistent backing. Put it in your drawer and do a monthly check. NZ will never, ever get a decent biotech investment sector unless the investment community is prepared to mature and learn how to be more patient.

[Apathy]

.... NZ will never, ever get a decent biotech investment sector unless the investment community is prepared to mature and learn how to be more patient....

Think the problem lies less with the investors and more with the spin Dr's who over hype the sector.

[Apathy]

Soon to be 235mil

$190m and falling............

[skid]

Think the problem lies less with the investors and more with the spin Dr's who over hype the sector.

absolutely agree--this isnt some new electronic gadget that is taking the world by storm---meanwhile Critical Diagnostics --16yrs to crack 20mil--and PEB has just asked for 35mil--Hmmmm

[skid]

$190m and falling............

Looks like the falling SP is cancelling out the extra 35mil worth of new shares--(not sure if they are counting the underwriters shares that hopefully will go to the holders yet)

[skid]

Im guessing the underwriters are going to war and doing some serious buying

[skid]

If I may, some perspective on this type of investment. Biotech takes a long time; Biosite, a marker company in San Diego took 23 years to get to reasonable turnover (US$300M). Boston Heart Diagnostics is 30 years and just now cutting US$80M p.a. A biomarker company that I have some more personal knowledge of, Critical Diagnostics, is similar to PE and has one main marker. It has been around for 16 years and is now cracking US$20M p.a.

The ideas, science and products behind PE are solid. It simply needs time and consistent backing. Put it in your drawer and do a monthly check. NZ will never, ever get a decent biotech investment sector unless the investment community is prepared to mature and learn how to be more patient.

Unless they find a serious big name backer for their product---not so sure your research is going to create much optimism for those with preconceived ideas on the sales of this product.

still its refreasing to see a post on some in depth research on how products actually penetrate the market.
Thats one area that has been lacking so well done, and I,for one,appreciate the input.

[gv1]

One thing I don't understand is that its the incompetence of the CEO, why does the s/holders have to pay for it, through share raise. It should come from the ceo...he already cashed out of the shares.

[trader_jackson]

Maybe its just me, but alot of people on here seems to think the CEO (who does still hold a fair amount of shares) is TRYING (with intention/purpose) to put up "smoke and mirrors", and implying he has no concern for PEB what so ever...

I think DD, who has been at PEB, for an awfully long time (although potentially not the worlds best CEO [as has been pointed out]), is really trying to 'make this work' for shareholders to the best of his ability, yet very few people seem to support him, and actually have the opposing view that he is trying to 'deceive everyone'

I certainly hope the underwriter comes 'full swing' into buying mode, shows their support for the long term ambitions of the company (probably would be worse if they just sat on the sideline 'hoping' for the best)

[robbo24]

If the underwriter was to let the share price slip down to say 56-58 cps not many would pay 61cps for a rights issue and the underwriter would end up with all shares not taken up.
So propping up the share price is more a butt covering exercise than a strong belief in the potential of the company.

But snappy, what if the underwriter's technique works out and the SPP is oversubscribed? :D

PS - has anyone got their settlement letters from PEB re the FMA settlement deed yet?

[robbo24]

PS - has anyone got their settlement letters from PEB re the FMA settlement deed yet?

On this point, I note that cl 2(d) of the settlement deed (https://fma.govt.nz/assets/Settlement-Decisions/150525-Settlement-deed-Pacific-Edge-Limited.pdf) allows PEB to offer shares in PEB to relevant shareholders.

However, the price of those shares is the 10 day VWAP for 10 working days after 25 May.

The VWAP of that period places it between 73 and 62 cents (probably in the middle somewhere).

This means the shares PEB can offer will be valued at more than the capital raising and the current going market rate.

How very comical - I doubt there will be much uptake. $500,000 cash down the gurgler.

[Poet]

Going by the reasonable volume of trading I think you will find 1 or 2 bigger smart investors are taking the opportunity of selling into the underwriters forced supportive buying....this could be either taking the opportunity to get out altogether or selling now knowing there is going to be plenty of shares available to buy from the underwriter for less should the rights issue be a flop.

My thoughts too Snapiti, I'm tempted to take that strategy of selling to underwriters now and buying back in when they have to dump their oversupply later. But I have a nagging doubt...

Why would the underwriters have committed to this issue at 61c when it was pretty obvious that the SP would perform exactly as it has done given the recent financial report and the magnitude of the capital raising?

Is there something up someone's sleeve that is expected to resurrect the CR between now and closing date

[trader_jackson]

The above post raises another question (I think)...

What, in the company, has materially changed since the announcement of the capital raising, and today? Its not the results, because immediately after they were posted the general consensus was that they were ok to good (not terrible)...

So what else has significantly occurred in the past week (apart from 1 non price sensitive good announcement) that has caused the share price to go down about 15% during this relatively short period of time? (Have I missed something? its almost as if people are selling because there is this belief they can 'get it cheaper tomorrow'... this is a dangerous game to play I would think)

Could it really be a 15% decrease all because of market opinions on "management credibility"?

[barney]

from what I can tell their are many current investors feeling a bit sceptical about the credibility of the company....for many good reasons........ and with the current share price around or below the rights issue price and many smart investors know that is only due to forced buying support from the underwriters and the likely hood of a cheaper entry point soon after the cap raise my moneys is on the cap raise being well under subscribed from current investors

When you say " many current investors " just how many of the 5000 plus current investors are you talking about ?

[skid]

The above post raises another question (I think)...

What, in the company, has materially changed since the announcement of the capital raising, and today? Its not the results, because immediately after they were posted the general consensus was that they were ok to good (not terrible)...

So what else has significantly occurred in the past week (apart from 1 non price sensitive good announcement) that has caused the share price to go down about 15% during this relatively short period of time? (Have I missed something? its almost as if people are selling because there is this belief they can 'get it cheaper tomorrow'... this is a dangerous game to play I would think)

Could it really be a 15% decrease all because of market opinions on "management credibility"?

We can only guess,but most likely ,nothing has materially changed except for the fact that the investors that have bought and sold seemed to have lost confidence that the company is doing as well as they had hoped--In other words,although the company has'nt changed that much materially in the last days,investors are realizing that it was not in such good shape to begin with--This realization(or belief)has caused the share price to drop--The fact that it has gotten around the rights range further influences investors.
The general mood of the whole market is also not what you would call positive ATM as well.

You can say ok to good results,..most say disappointing..this combined with an unexpected cap raising is not a happy situation.

The fact that there are very large buy and sell orders at the top of each category suggests to me that it is not the usual market activity so investors could be excused for being suspicious of a dump at some stage.

If your thinking selling is a dangerous game (cheaper tomorrow) you really need to weigh this against the danger of holding through a dump and decide for yourself which seems more dangerous at this stage.

Its human nature not to want to see your paper loses turn into real loses,but in many ways this is an illusion--that loss could be sustained or it could be cut or even turned around if you manage to buy back in to the company you like at a cheaper price--you just have to try and get a handle on the mood and momentum of the market(many do this with charts)but sometimes there are other signs.
Nothing in this world is certain so you really have to try and decide as objectively as you can--you can sell- hold-or hold and take up the rights,but whatever you do keep in mind that ''blind faith'' does not have a good track record.

For leisure and research go back and read the posts on this thread from the beginning.

[nextbigthing]

Trader Jackson, people aren't questioning DD's dedication. Of course he's dedicated. They're questioning his ability. Being whether he has the correct skill set to actually start making $$$. Big difference.

Re the Underwriters knowing something that we don't and PEB hasn't released.... Remember PEB just got fined for not releasing info straight away. So logically they can't be holding anything material in that respect. Although I agree it still doesn't add up, all that capital for less than a mil return.

[trader_jackson]

I see, well (personally) I am willing to give him a few more years, I mean they are only just beginning the commercialization progress (I think) although his comments that they will have $100m in revenue in 5 years may come to bite him, but lets just wait and see, after all that's all we really can do.

Has anyone considered that the underwriters may just happen to think PEB is in a very good position and will do well? hence happy to underwrite it? (I'm sure First NZ understood the risks with underwriting a rather large amount of cash, for little return/fee to a speculative bio-tech company... to me this is the only logical reason left, [eliminating the reasoning they know something we don't])

On another note, after heavy trading, shares were on the way up today...

[skid]

I see, well (personally) I am willing to give him a few more years, I mean they are only just beginning the commercialization progress (I think) although his comments that they will have $100m in revenue in 5 years may come to bite him, but lets just wait and see, after all that's all we really can do.

Has anyone considered that the underwriters may just happen to think PEB is in a very good position and will do well? hence happy to underwrite it? (I'm sure First NZ understood the risks with underwriting a rather large amount of cash, for little return/fee to a speculative bio-tech company... to me this is the only logical reason left, [eliminating the reasoning they know something we don't])

On another note, after heavy trading, shares were on the way up today...

have you considered the underwriters may just happen to think peb is in a very good position and will do well.....and were wrong

there is still a fair amount of time for the underwriters to throw alot more money at this...remember just the allotment is a fair percentage of shares,plus whatever they are buying,

[trader_jackson]

First NZ has already 'done the deal', PEB's as a company still has a long way to go, so I can't consider something that has yet to occur... ie where will the share price be this time next year? Maybe then First NZ could be proved to be 'right'... (and even then a year is pretty short given the nature of PEB)

I am not sure on this, but surely the underwriters don't 'have' to dump any excess shares... (yet this is what is implied, that all and any excess shares they are left with will be dumped the following week after capital raising close)

[skid]

Normally underwriters are not in the business of holding speculative
shares,,their job is not to second guess the market

(keep in mind the SP shows at .62 but the last 300000 shares have gone through at .61

[skid]

Yes,If the underwriter gets stuck with alot of shares a crash would certainly not benefit them(I probably shouldnt have used the word dump)
They will,however, have to unload those shares in the best fashion they can so they can get back to their normal business. The SP will have to suffer if this comes about.

Meanwhile Im intrigued at what appears to me to be the games they play. Yesterday the SP closed at .62--After close a large amount 300,000 changed hands at .61 so today some one has put a buy for a measly 3000 at .62 so the SP will start at .62 (pay no attention to the man behind the curtain)

On a normal day of PEB trading we see buy and sells that of course vary, but the volume is normally in the same ballpark. Now we are seeing huge volume on the first 2 buys and huge volume on the first 1-2 sells--then they both drop down to normal size orders.
Its like a game of chess-(the underwriters on the buy side for the next 12 days-then on the sell side for the next Xdays)-It would be interesting to know how many separate agents the underwriters have buying.

[winner69]

Yes,If the underwriter gets stuck with alot of shares a crash would certainly not benefit them(I probably shouldnt have used the word dump)
They will,however, have to unload those shares in the best fashion they can so they can get back to their normal business. The SP will have to suffer if this comes about.

Meanwhile Im intrigued at what appears to me to be the games they play. Yesterday the SP closed at .62--After close a large amount 300,000 changed hands at .61 so today some one has put a buy for a measly 3000 at .62 so the SP will start at .62 (pay no attention to the man behind the curtain)

On a normal day of PEB trading we see buy and sells that of course vary, but the volume is normally in the same ballpark. Now we are seeing huge volume on the first 2 buys and huge volume on the first 1-2 sells--then they both drop down to normal size orders.
Its like a game of chess-(the underwriters on the buy side for the next 12 days-then on the sell side for the next Xdays)-It would be interesting to know how many separate agents the underwriters have buying.

Games that highly paid people who think they are important play ---- but hardly productive is it and not really helping the economy

[winner69]

PEBRD at 0.4 cents could be good buying. One good announcement in next day or two and bingo.

I get grumpy when brokers ask you to front up with the 61 cents at the same time - suppose that's one way of helping the underwriter out?

[skid]

I think even if I held enough shares,I would still try to buy from the market at .61 for no other reason than it gives you the immediate opportunity to bail if things go wrong--any time you have to wait ,you are subject to missed opportunities.

Im surprised you have to come up with the .61 after buying the .4--I thought the .4 gave you the right to excersise should you choose to do so.--guess its a bit different to options.

Im at a loss as to why anyone would buy rights at .8 or .9 when they could buy shares at .62 (to save .2c in this volatile market?)

[winner69]

Skid .... good news announcement .... a really good one ..... share price goes to 80 cents .... whats PEBRD worth then .... and hopefully somebody take them off your hands (if you don't want to participate) in the actual rights issue) and you pocket the gain

Dangerous game but for some a better punt than #3 in Race 5 on Saturday

[skid]

Maybe I misunderstood--I thought you were saying that upon buying the rights,you had to come up with the .61 at that time--If you are just carrying the .8 then I can understand what you are saying for a punt(although a really good announcement at this stage really would be a punt)they have already said KP trials are a way off and with it the possibility of CMS coverage(maybe) and then with all that ,how many sales?

Lets face it --A really good announcement would always be good.........More of the same...not so good (and that includes yea for us announcements)

[skid]

Meanwhile someones going all out--just depends on whether you believe its the underwriters or real buyers---one way or the other ,no rush for exercising the rights.

[skid]

Skid .... good news announcement .... a really good one ..... share price goes to 80 cents .... whats PEBRD worth then .... and hopefully somebody take them off your hands (if you don't want to participate) in the actual rights issue) and you pocket the gain

Dangerous game but for some a better punt than #3 in Race 5 on Saturday

Dang!! I had a hundred on #3 race 5 on Saturday:D

[couta1]

This thread should be renamed SES Ltd that is Skid En Snapiti Biotech as its seems they are doing most of the posting and filling up the pages. Where are all the long term holders, oh that's right they don't have any comments to make because they are looking Long Term. Most of the other well researched holders have left for good or cant be bothered posting anymore. S&S we got your points long ago but continual rehashing and speculating the stock to death over and over is well quite frankly well past its use by date, Regards

[pak]

Hi there,
Can someone please clarify for me.

Under the heading "Actions to be taken by eligible shareholders" and under sub title "important" in the offer document. If you decide to do nothing with your Rights when the new shares are effectively on the market, It says your shares will reduce by factor 15.4 percent, assuming by overall share dilution. However if you do take up rights the percentage you own don't loose value. Also what happens if you take up half your rights on this matter?

If my interpretation is correct, it would seem logical to take up rights issue at current price - an even if it were a bit lower so as not to loose another 15%??? and also in support of the company you still believe in.

Can someone please clarify for me.
Im relatively new to this and only a small shareholder -here to learn.
cheers

[winner69]

what meeting....I might have a punt as well.

Tauranga Saturday -- North and South

But remember the last tip I gave hurt its leg and finished last ........and that PERCY was a mixed lot, after showing so much promise he turned useless. Probably gone to knackers yard.

[couta1]

Hi there,
Can someone please clarify for me.

Under the heading "Actions to be taken by eligible shareholders" and under sub title "important" in the offer document. If you decide to do nothing with your Rights when the new shares are effectively on the market, It says your shares will reduce by factor 15.4 percent, assuming by overall share dilution. However if you do take up rights the percentage you own don't loose value. Also what happens if you take up half your rights on this matter?

If my interpretation is correct, it would seem logical to take up rights issue at current price - an even if it were a bit lower so as not to loose another 15%??? and also in support of the company you still believe in.

Can someone please clarify for me.
Im relatively new to this and only a small shareholder -here to learn.
cheers Pak it really comes down to how much a percentage of your portfolio percentage Peb makes up and whether you want to increase it or not? before worrying about the dilution effect, at the end of the day you will still hold the same number of shares if you don't take up or sell your rights. I sold my rights for 2.5c as Peb makes up 6% of my portfolio total which is more than enough for a speculative stock.

[trader_jackson]

hmm interesting day for PEB, rights was up 200% and suddenly a large amount of buy orders in at 0.62, with only a fair amount up for sale at 0.62.

Buys outweigh sells almost 3:1, about time things turned around...

[pak]

Thanks for your reply Couta1,
I can understand the amount of shares you hold doesn't change if you do nothing at end of issue.

To keep things simple, if we can look at just PEB shares rather than comparing a portfolio. Its my understanding that If Holders do nothing, their shares for just PEB will become 15.4% less once the rights issue ends, where as if you take it up you don't loose that 15.4%.
I'm still not quite clear on this yet? or am I looking into this too much. Anyone?

[kyanar]

So I just got my letter today informing me that because I had the temerity to move to Australia, I'm not eligible for any rights so my holdings are going to be diluted. Bit of a slap in the face to the holders who put faith in them years back huh?

But on the flip side, apparently the rights they would allocate to me they're going to sell on the open market and "attribute" the value to me net transaction costs of 0.5%. I guess that explains the glut of rights on the market.

[winner69]

Thanks for your reply Couta1,
I can understand the amount of shares you hold doesn't change if you do nothing at end of issue.

To keep things simple, if we can look at just PEB shares rather than comparing a portfolio. Its my understanding that If Holders do nothing, their shares for just PEB will become 15.4% less once the rights issue ends, where as if you take it up you don't loose that 15.4%.
I'm still not quite clear on this yet? or am I looking into this too much. Anyone?

Say you now have 1,000 shares

Do nothing and let rights lapse and don't take up the offer - you still have 1,000 shares but you own less of the company (by that factor 15.4%)

Unless you have hundreds of thousands or millions of shares I wouldn't worry about this dilution factor. Do nothing and you still have your 1,000 shares. They probably might still be worth 61 cents after the rights issue but who knows what the market will do. When PEB is a winner and the share price is $2 it wont make much difference anyway will it, except you will be cursing for not taking up the rights.

[Carpenterjoe]

Quick one to the brains trust, since the capital announcement has there only been about 6 million shares traded?

[trader_jackson]

Quite possibly, haven't looked it up, but I believe in the past 3 or 4 of days about 2.5-3 million shares (or about 4-5x more than average) have been traded...

[pak]

Say you now have 1,000 shares

Do nothing and let rights lapse and don't take up the offer - you still have 1,000 shares but you own less of the company (by that factor 15.4%)

Unless you have hundreds of thousands or millions of shares I wouldn't worry about this dilution factor. Do nothing and you still have your 1,000 shares. They probably might still be worth 61 cents after the rights issue but who knows what the market will do. When PEB is a winner and the share price is $2 it wont make much difference anyway will it, except you will be cursing for not taking up the rights.

Awesome thanks winner. Thats cleared it up. I gather the big boys/girls will be inclined to taking it up then........

[zigzag]

Awesome thanks winner. Thats cleared it up. I gather the big boys/girls will be inclined to taking it up then........

pak. The people who take up their rights will put in 61c per share as new equity, so the value of you holding will not be diluted. It is your ownership and voting power that is diluted. So, with a small holding it is, as winner says, practically irrelevant. I also have a very small holding (5000 shares), and have already accepted, and mailed my cheque, which came to less than $600.00.

[skid]

This thread should be renamed SES Ltd that is Skid En Snapiti Biotech as its seems they are doing most of the posting and filling up the pages. Where are all the long term holders, oh that's right they don't have any comments to make because they are looking Long Term. Most of the other well researched holders have left for good or cant be bothered posting anymore. S&S we got your points long ago but continual rehashing and speculating the stock to death over and over is well quite frankly well past its use by date, Regards

Thanks for your interest Coutts ---Some of the other well researched holders have possibly left because they have thoroughly researched the product (and done a great job) but we have in many ways moved on to the business of marketing and actually selling the product.
and at this time it does not seem to be going as planned(ie cap raising)
If you have anything to add your comments are welcome (blind faith has already been raised)
Meanwhile there are a number of new investors that may benefit from a ''heads up''on the potential pitfalls of a share like this at this point in time.
Did you actually sell your rights @2.5c or .25c?

You averaged down on your Xero shares to end end up in at a cheaper price--Waiting to see how this cap raising dilution and underwriters situation affects the market may well achieve the same result for new investors interested in PEB---any thoughts?

[couta1]

Sold my rights at 2.5c not .25, wasn't in a position to average down as targeted my Dil holding after Xero ( Unfortunately at the wrong time so more patience required there) I figured I would break even sooner on Diligent than Peb so that's my story for now.

[skid]

Sold my rights at 2.5c not .25, wasn't in a position to average down as targeted my Dil holding after Xero ( Unfortunately at the wrong time so more patience required there) I figured I would break even sooner on Diligent than Peb so that's my story for now.

I dont see anywhere on the chart where they fetched that much,but Ill take your word for it (they are .7 now) which means those new investors could have gotten them for that much cheaper by taking heed and waiting---which is the point I was making in my last post.(only about the SP)
The is a real danger that ,even with a good product ,that management can make a dogs breakfast out of this.
Looking at the SP performance in the last few years shows the the dangers in long term investing and why the downside should be talked about as well as the positives.

There will be plenty of time for high fives if they actually deliver

[couta1]

Skid the trading range from commencement until now has been 0.2c to 2.5c. The share price performance over the last few years only tells you about how speculators/traders can drive prices to premature overinflated levels not about the dangers of long term investing, all shares have a danger element whether held for short or long terms, I can speak with some authority on that issue.

[skid]

Skid the trading range from commencement until now has been 0.2c to 2.5c. The share price performance over the last few years only tells you about how speculators/traders can drive prices to premature overinflated levels not about the dangers of long term investing, all shares have a danger element whether held for short or long terms, I can speak with some authority on that issue.

Thats a pretty good definition of the dangers--You did well on your sale of (overinflated rights?) Whats to say the SP is not over inflated as well by the underwriters?

Most of the comments have been about the unusual situation this Capital raising has raised--when the dust has cleared it will be more on just how the company is trying to achieve its goals of actually making some money and its activities ,goals etc.---Time will tell what the SP will settle at----PEB has certainly not been derisked at this stage.

[skid]

after market trade that equals the whole days trading volume--- Dang! (never a dull moment)

[skid]

Again...second day in a row a relatively big after market sale (at over half the volume for the whole day)(at about the same SP)

[Carpenterjoe]

Again...second day in a row a relatively big after market sale (at over half the volume for the whole day)(at about the same SP)

Still peanuts, total volume traded since Announcements around 7-8mill? At what point do the majors announce movement changes is it one percent therefore after five? I can never remember. Wouldn't be surprised to see a announcement or two before cut off date. Tell me skid are you in or out on this one?

[skid]

Ive always been interested,and have been in twice,but Im definitely staying well on the sidelines until they have some sort of a track record.
When or if they have shown they can sell the product,I would reconsider--Im not one of those who takes a stance and holds it no matter what. If the company proves itself,then Im happy to sacrifice some early gains to jump on board,but only then.
Im not looking for a cheap price to enter,but rather results.

It is interesting to watch though, and your right about the volume and I also agree there will be some announcements,but my guess is that will will have more of a ''feel good'' factor,rather than substance.

[Carpenterjoe]

Ive always been interested,and have been in twice,but Im definitely staying well on the sidelines until they have some sort of a track record.
When or if they have shown they can sell the product,I would reconsider--Im not one of those who takes a stance and holds it no matter what. If the company proves itself,then Im happy to sacrifice some early gains to jump on board,but only then.
Im not looking for a cheap price to enter,but rather results.

It is interesting to watch though, and your right about the volume and I also agree there will be some announcements,but my guess is that will will have more of a ''feel good'' factor,rather than substance.

Cool, yeah, snaps was talking about a major sell down, not sure 5% volume over two weeks is major. No doubt some small-medium long termers are now completely out.

Out of interest
at what point will they prove to you they can sell or demand is strong enough? Is it a dollar amount? Break even? Major deal? Or is that too personal?:cool:

[skid]

First of all,I believe Snaps was referring to the period after the Cap raising closes if the underwriters are stuck with alot of shares.
Anything that happens before that has a very real chance of manipulation in order to encourage the taking up of the rights.
If the rights issue is a relative failure (for the underwriters) then I guess the downturn would depend on how the underwriters decided to despose of their holding and the market sentiment attached.

At what point to think about entering?---thats a good question-- Chartists would say an indication of an uptrend would be when the 30day moving average crosses above the 120 MA and holds(for a company not yet making a profit)

I suppose one obvious sign would be the successful KP trail outcome which would have to lead to CMS coverage, to most likely lead to a big increase of sales--but even that is not a given in the conservative medical field--so ideally trail results and coverage would lead to optimism and good sales results would be a concrete reason to jump in----so its not so much the number(SP)-its more whether that number is a stop on the way up or the way down.
Unfortunately at this stage there is no real evidence that they are moving upward but have IMO moved the other way in terms of having to ask for more money.
Aside from the lack of momentum ,the ''trip ups'' have caused some doubt as to whether the management is up to it.
At this stage investors are imo, betting more on the management than the product.

[Bing]

thanks skid yes the major sell down I was referring too was the unloading of shares by the underwriter after the cap raise.
However I did also mention that many smarter investors will see this forced buying by the underwriter for what it is..... an opportunity to either sell out completely or sell down knowing the share price will offer a better entry point or trading point after the cap raise due to the under writer selling down.
The volume now confirms that is exactly what is happening.
But the share price won't tank just weaken into the 50's somewhere after the cap raise as the underwriter will take their time to trade out of their predicament....probably 4-6 weeks.
The underwriter is well aware of the pending predicament they are in and will also know they need to keep the share price above 61 cps to capture as much interest as possible from current investors to the rights issue.
Going by the trading indications they are trying to push it to 63 cps or better but 63 cps keeps meeting major sell resistance by the investors I referred to earlier.
As time marches on the trading patterns are confirming a weak share price after cap raise is looking more likely.
Total confirmation of this will be in the volume of trading in the last week of trading prior to the close of the cap raise, when many investor will make up their minds whether to commit or not and the underwriter is really busy trying to hold the share price up and other investors make the most of this opportunity.
Volume that week will be very telling.
only 2 weeks to go......but me thinks it well be a long 2 weeks for the underwriter

So you are saying that the underwriter is manipulating the share price? Have you reported them to the FMA? They should have some spare time now that their Milford investigation is wrapping up.

[BlackPeter]

what would be wrong with an underwriter buying shares on market which he has as well underwritten? There is no law against believing in a stock;)

[Longhaul]

For those that are interested, CXBladder is being used in a clinical trial by UHS in Philadelphia - http://www.uhsurology.com/CLINICAL-TRIALS.aspx

[RTM]

For those that are interested, CXBladder is being used in a clinical trial by UHS in Philadelphia - http://www.uhsurology.com/CLINICAL-TRIALS.aspx

Yes, I am interested. Thanks Longhaul, nice to see some positivity and progress rather than all the doom and gloom !
Have a few.

[Crash Test Dummy]

For those that are interested, CXBladder is being used in a clinical trial by UHS in Philadelphia - http://www.uhsurology.com/CLINICAL-TRIALS.aspx

That is an old link - you will find it many pages back on this thread.

But for live news: https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/265987

The Kaiser User Programme has nearly started.

[trader_jackson]

Another positive announcement (well good update at least, certainly not bad)...

I am surprised the share price has not dropped (like it seems to have with every other 'not bad' announcement)

On another, less sarcastic note, the capital raising closes 1 week from today

[skid]

heres the positive announcement (well an extract from it in 2014)
The User Program research is scheduled to begin later this year with results completed in early 2015.

Now the program is just starting in June 2015--draw your own conclusions on whether this is grounds for the warm fuzzies.

Im sure you and I will be watching with interest after the 1 week is up TJ.(looks like we will have to be far more patient on the KP trials)

Meanwhile Mac will no doubt be glad he took an interest in ATM as well as PEB---Those holding will be happy campers:)

[couta1]

I am sure the cap raise close's 29th June.....so 9 days from today.
watch the volume in the last week it will tell you what will happen in the weeks after the close.
Back to school snaps 9 days from today is not the 29th:cool:

[skid]

Starting to get used to the big after market trades--I bet my hat they will cease in 7-8days time

[whatsup]

Im getting the feeling that the rights issue WILL get across the line, a little more buying at these levels and were away .

[blackcap]

Im getting the feeling that the rights issue WILL get across the line, a little more buying at these levels and were away .

Yes it will ... (it always was anyway because of it being underwritten) but the real question is post rights issue how many shares will the underwriter hold and be looking to offload.

[trader_jackson]

Well we all saw this coming... but nice that they 'confirmed' it

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/266073

Full financial information out just before the capital raising closes (I believe)

[Antipodean]

While being price sensitive and negative - this announcement shouldn't surprise anyone. It -should- already be built into the current price on market.

[trader_jackson]

Yes, I believe it certainly is already built into the price (from my point of view)

I am sure there will be an interesting discussion (and scrutiny) over the full Financial Statements when they are released on 29 June, and, as always, I look forward to seeing everyone's ideas/theories

[trader_jackson]

Why do you automatically assume the underwriter is the sole buyer of all these shares? Yes, there may be a good reason for them to, but there is also a good reason not to... why would they buy so so much, knowing they will probably get less for them, or barely break even when they attempt to "dump" them on the market in the 'near future' (this is the view of some anyway, not me)

so snapiti you are suggesting the underwriter would buy millions of shares, simply to support the capital raising, knowing they would lose money (assuming the above pessimistic theory is correct) when they come to "dump" them on the market in the 'near future'?

Has anyone thought it could be another company/individual building up its stake? (at bargain prices in my view, like Salt Funds Management recently did I believe)

[RTM]

Hi out there.
I have some PEB options which I am not going to exercise. 727 to be precise.
Is it possible to transfer them to someone else ?

If yes.....then should holders who are not going to exercise nominate someone who can accumulate them into a saleable parcel and then sell them ? Maybe donate any funds to Whanganui Flood Recovery...or Nepal....or ?
Is this sensible / doable ?

Cheers
RTM

[RTM]

to late to transfer that finished about a week ago....
Ok...thanks. Hate to see waste !

[Minerbarejet]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/266215

Ring ring , ring ring.
DD…….hello DD speaking
JB……..Hi DD it’s Joe bloggs from the UW speaking.
DD……well hello how are the right acceptance’s coming along.
JB…….well that’s why I am calling, not so good , we have tried all we can at this stage is there any chance of some positive news on the horizons.
DD…….well that would depend on how you define positive news
JB…….. something the markets would take as a positive
DD…… Oh well rrrrr that it not as easy as it use to be so I would have to say no there isn’t at this stage.
JB…..…bugger…could the company put out a reminder about the right issue to shareholders in case they have forgotten
DD…… goly gosh is it that bad(long pause) do other companies do this.
JB……. No they don’t but at this late stage we need all the help we can get.
DD…….well we have never had to do that before won’t that smack of desperation
JB……. desperate times need desperate measures D
DD…… righto I wIll see what we can do.
JB……..thanks DD you are a champ, will speak to you 5pm Mondaybrrr brrr, brrr brrr,
SN....... er yeah, gidday Snap here,
JB....... Joe Bloggs here, Im in a conference call with DD and other major shareholders regarding the recent successful rights issue.
SN....... oh yeah
JB....... we were wondering if you could turn off your illegal recording device as our conversations seem to be appearing on ST under your name.
SN.......(gulp) er, ok then
JB....... Thanks Snap, you are a real brick

(This call has been recorded for training purposes):)

[BlackPeter]

hmmmm bit early for that call to be made........best they wait till 5 pm today.......but I suppose we will here the words successful (or similar rhetoric) in the companies announcement no matter what the result.:D
best indicator will be what the share price does over the next few weeks.

Oh dear - last day of the CR ... and support at 61 cents already gone. Would have thought the underwriters have a bit more reserves at their avail, but maybe they assume that they will need to take anyway the whole lot of options - so what point in supporting the SP?

Discl: Sold out some weeks ago and expect a further drop. Might come back at bottom time. DYOR

[winner69]

Anybody bother read the Annual Report

I started but didn't get past this bit in big bold letters ....it's all honky dory

POTENTIAL FOR MILLIONS OF TESTS IN OUR KEY MARKETS

And exciting was only mentioned 6 times

[couta1]

Oh dear - last day of the CR ... and support at 61 cents already gone. Would have thought the underwriters have a bit more reserves at their avail, but maybe they assume that they will need to take anyway the whole lot of options - so what point in supporting the SP?

Discl: Sold out some weeks ago and expect a further drop. Might come back at bottom time. DYOR
Why try and fight a big market down day by kicking against a concrete wall ? Underwriters I'm sure are aware of the current Macro effect on the markets.

[Poet]

whether I am a brick or not if you don't believe me that the underwriter has been supporting the shares price have a look at the depth at 5pm today.....just like magic all the 100's of thousand of shares on the bid side have all disappeared.
into the 50's we go real soon.

I think you are right, I sold mine last week in a matter of minutes circa 600k shares. Hope for buying opportunities in next few weeks

[blackcap]

I think you are right, I sold mine last week in a matter of minutes circa 600k shares. Hope for buying opportunities in next few weeks

I think looking back, kudos to Snapiti for calling this one correctly from day 1 of the rights. Who is going to purchase the underwriters shares?

[Poet]

I think looking back, kudos to Snapiti for calling this one correctly from day 1 of the rights. Who is going to purchase the underwriters shares?

I, for one, kinda hoping to

But quite right kudos to Snapiti

[skid]

I think you are right, I sold mine last week in a matter of minutes circa 600k shares. Hope for buying opportunities in next few weeks

Be patient--Its looking like we may get a bit of a double whammy going here--That down day that was referred to, is the sound of Greece crumbling under this dog of a system we got going here--that down day could turn into down days.
If your looking for a good entry point ,it would be prudent to take the pulse of the market in general first.
For now..keep your powder dry guys

[Minerbarejet]

There is going to be fireworks later in the week thats for sure.:)

[barleeni]

There is going to be fireworks later in the week thats for sure.:)

Fireworks are usually reserved for celebrations. I, as a holder of PEB, am not expecting any celebrations anytime soon! Plenty of grimacing and cringing perhaps....

[blobbles]

Listening to the news last night, Australia has a new drug to fight melanoma:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-28/melanoma-drug-listed-on-pbs-saving-patients-thousands/6578554

However they also suggested it could be used for bladder cancer too. I can't tell whether this would be good/bad/no effect on PEB. You would still need to know if you had bladder cancer even if they had a perfect cure for it!

[barleeni]

Fireworks are usually reserved for celebrations. I, as a holder of PEB, am not expecting any celebrations anytime soon! Plenty of grimacing and cringing perhaps....

And so it begins. Opens at $0.59.

[nextbigthing]

Underwriter must be happy you can't easily short on the nzx...

[Minerbarejet]

no announcement from PEB about the rights issue....last time they announced the day after close.
This would confirm that the underwriters are very busy on the phones off loading the rights, at a discount to insto's, that were not taken up.
This has no effect on PEB as the under writer has gaurenteed 61 cps.
$35m in PEB's bank...........lets hope they get more value for money from it than the last cap raise.
Snap, stop trying to make 2 and 2 equal 3. Why would they make an announcement about something thats already done and dusted.
They announced a day after close last time because it was an oversubscribed rights issue to shareholders. Doubt if we will be seeing the level of takeup bandied about so nobody including yourself really knows what the Underwriters may or may not do.
Is there anything stopping them holding onto the shares, if indeed there are any. Just because you seem to have written PEB off doesnt mean that the Underwriters or anyone else has.
The company now has a firm balance sheet with 35mill on it.
Exciting isnt it.:)

[RTM]

Snaps,
You've well and truly made your point. Sit back and enjoy !
No need to reinforce multiple times a day.
Appreciate your input to date.....but had enough.
We'll all see what happens in due course, without 2nd guessing it every step of the way with no info.

Cheers
RTM



announcement is coming for sure with positive spin.....just taking longer to off load some of what was not taken up........ PR company may not have settled on what is to be said in the announcement yet.
Have not written PEB off completely merely calling it how I see it(been very accurate for a long time now) and trying to help others understand what is really going on behind the scene as this company develops.
Actually interested in getting back in at some stage but given the management credibility is a bit doubtful it will not be at current price.

[BigBob]

no announcement from PEB about the rights issue....last time they announced the day after close.
This would confirm that the underwriters are very busy on the phones off loading the rights, at a discount to insto's, that were not taken up.
This has no effect on PEB as the under writer has gaurenteed 61 cps.
$35m in PEB's bank...........lets hope they get more value for money from it than the last cap raise.

Almost two thirds of holders took up their rights - not too bad, eh snaps... ?

Maybe maybe the underwriters are not that busy phoning around after all.....

COMPLETION OF RIGHTS ISSUE
Pacific Edge Limited (“Pacific Edge”) advises that it has successfully completed its underwritten 2 for 11 pro-rata renounceable rights issue (“Offer”). The Offer was announced on 28 May 2015, and will raise approximately NZ$35.3 million.

The shares taken up under the Offer are expected to be allotted and commence trading on Monday, 6 July 2015.

For the purposes of NZX Main Board Listing Rule 7.14.1 Pacific Edge advises the following in respect of the Offer for 57,927,557 shares:

- Subscriptions received: 37,739,195 New Shares totalling NZ$23.0 million, representing a take up of approximately 65.1%

- Under subscription: 20,188,362 New Shares totalling NZ$12.3 million, representing a shortfall of approximately 34.9%

The Offer was fully underwritten by First NZ Capital Securities Limited (“FNZC”). In accordance with the terms of the Underwriting Agreement between Pacific Edge and FNZC dated 28 May 2015, the 34.9% under subscription will be taken up in full by FNZC and sub-underwriters.

[winner69]

Big bob said - Almost two thirds of holders took up their rights - not too bad, eh snaps... ?

No, no - talk 1/4s and then almost 3/4s of holders took up their rights

A lot better

[moadoc]

Like it or not snaps was right. 35% under subscription is a telling projection of the sentiment towards this company presently.

[robbo24]

[
lol......well I assure you the under writer will not be to pleased with the 35% under subscription plus the shares they now own from trying to hold the share price above or @ the issue price.
Honestly surprised anyone would consider this positive as it worse than even I thought it would be.

How much did you raise in your recent capital raising snapiti?

$0.00? That's $23,000,000 less than PEB did... I guess they have a more credible product than you.

Disc: not holding, been actively avoiding this thread like the plague :D

[trader_jackson]

Hi everyone, its been a while...

Well this morning was when the 'truth' came out, and although it wasn't exactly a huge success (ie above 90%), this was never going to happen when the share price was usually no more than 2 cents above the offer price (and in fact several times below the offer price of 0.61).

So given the what appears to be generally negative sediment around PEB (the 500k fine, management apparently not delivering on what they are saying, other external factors like Greece etc), the volatility in the share price, and with a offer price so close to the actual share price (and sometimes below it!), I think it could almost be argued that getting 2 in 3 shareholders (approximately) to take up the offer despite all of this is quite amazing, and a vote of confidence that 0.61 is a 'reasonable price' despite what the market may currently think.

Share price is now below the offer price (just) although it doesn't exactly seem to be plummeting (still early days I realize, but maybe it will? maybe it won't?), with the majority of sells actually above 0.61 (and almost all sells at least 0.61).

I think alot of new buy orders came in today or maybe late yesterday, but I am not sure as haven't been keeping a close eye on it recently... and this time I am pretty sure these buy orders ain't from the underwriter.

What was also interesting (reassuring?) is that in the annual report they continued to reinforce that they are comfortable where they are currently at and will hit the $100m target in '5 full trading years'.

With the share price at almost the lowest it has been in 2 years, it could be argued it is near the bottom, as they are surely in a much better position, cash and sales wise, than what they were 2 years ago...

Will be a few interesting weeks ahead for PEB as I am also expecting an announcement of some kind regarding the user programmes.

(PS: I do apologies for quoting snapiti incorrectly a while back)

[trader_jackson]

I don't know of any other company on the NZX 50 that can be remotely compared to PEB, not even XRO. I therefore don't think it is apportiate to try and compare capital raising done by other, generally much older, companies to a speculative bio-tech stock like PEB.

I do however agree that PEB, especially at current market cap, will be kicked out of NZX 50, but in the case of PEB I don't think it will adversely affect the share price, due to the nature of the company vs other NZX 50 companies.

I would almost argue (like I have in my previous post) to get 2 in 3 shareholders to put money in such a speculative investment, or for First NZ to even fully underwrite it, is a vote of confidence in PEB's future.

[Casino]

I don't know of any other company on the NZX 50 that can be remotely compared to PEB, not even XRO. I therefore don't think it is apportiate to try and compare capital raising done by other, generally much older, companies to a speculative bio-tech stock like PEB.

I do however agree that PEB, especially at current market cap, will be kicked out of NZX 50, but in the case of PEB I don't think it will adversely affect the share price, due to the nature of the company vs other NZX 50 companies.

I would almost argue (like I have in my previous post) to get 2 in 3 shareholders to put money in such a speculative investment, or for First NZ to even fully underwrite it, is a vote of confidence in PEB's future.

Have you considered that some investors own more shares than others?

[Minerbarejet]

Maybe all the shareholders took 2/3 of their entitlement.:)

Also consider that 23 mill was about the amount raised last CR and that was oversubscribed because the share price was over a dollar and the CR shares were 55c. So to get the same amount in a pinch situation that we just had is not a bad effort. Also some may have taken the approach that it was underwritten anyway so why bother.
Going into the famous NZX 50 didnt do diddly squat so going out probably wont make much difference except a few funds obliged to offload because of rules and regulations.

[skid]

boy,that news tells alot more about the Share holders, than the company--all those holders with shares coming at 1c more expensive than the current selling price.
And the underwriters still with a load on their books--but they may keep them because its such a sound investment(TUI billboard)
I dunno guys--was taking up those rights a sound business decision?

[barleeni]

boy,that news tells alot more about the Share holders, than the company--all those holders with shares coming at 1c more expensive than the current selling price.
And the underwriters still with a load on their books--but they may keep them because its such a sound investment(TUI billboard)
I dunno guys--was taking up those rights a sound business decision?

Yes it does tell you something about the shareholders. Glass half full it tells you that they believe in the story and are happy to back the company when asked to, or glass half empty it tells you the shareholders aren't too financially savvy. Of those two options im not sure which one you are inferring? I prefer to hope you were inferring option 1. For disclosure I did not participate in the CR, my partner however did.

[Minerbarejet]

boy,that news tells alot more about the Share holders, than the company--all those holders with shares coming at 1c more expensive than the current selling price.
And the underwriters still with a load on their books--but they may keep them because its such a sound investment(TUI billboard)
I dunno guys--was taking up those rights a sound business decision?Whats the difference between an underwriter and subunderwriters with 20 million on the books and several large shareholders/ instos with the same amount between them. Stop focussing on 1c share price movements.
Its like driving a car around admiring your bonnet emblem.:)

[robbo24]

So, I received my PEB compensation claim information in the mail.

The form requires me to: (1) Calculate the net shares sold and (2) Attach evidence of the net shares sold.

The compensation claim is for trades that took place within a particular intraday time period (ending at 10:34am on 22 October 2013, or something like that).

However, ANZ Securities website doesn't have the times of old trades.

I emailed ANZ asking for the times and they sent me to Link Market Services.

Link Market Services emailed me back to say that I have received my form that includes details of compensation I qualify for. Unfortunately it does not.

If this nonsense keeps up then Link Market and Pacific Edge will have a Fair Trading Act complaint to the Commerce Commission to contend with as well. Not happy with the sloppy procedures.

[couta1]

Not Pebs fault, its up to Link to sort that detail for you, ANZ can show you all your trades by the day not the minute surely that must be of some help?

[robbo24]

Not Pebs fault, its up to Link to sort that detail for you, ANZ can show you all your trades by the day not the minute surely that must be of some help?

Times of old trades don't appear on the ANZ Securities website. ANZ Securities referred me to Link Market services to get the times. Now Link Market Services say they don't have the times and told me to ask ANZ Securities.

PEB chose link as their share registry and they are acting on behalf of PEB for purposes of the compensation process - in my view that makes it PEB's fault by way of agency.

I also blame the FMA for agreeing to such stickler-terms. Down to the second and all... Geez...

[Xerof]

I bought 50k at 50, then sold 50k at 69 next day but within the first period, then bought again at 78 after the first announcement but within the second period, i.e. a NET long, so no 'compensation' for unwittingly selling my first position. Bugger.

I feel like I'm being accused of insider trading, rather than being thought of as an innocent victim of their heinous crime:t_down:

[couta1]

Your drawing a long bow there robbo whether they used Link or Computer share its up to the registry to sort it out that's their job.

[robbo24]

I bought 50k at 50, then sold 50k at 69 next day but within the first period, then bought again at 78 after the first announcement but within the second period, i.e. a NET long, so no 'compensation' for unwittingly selling my first position. Bugger.

I feel like I'm being accused of insider trading, rather than being thought of as an innocent victim of their heinous crime:t_down:

The police will be at your door soon.

[Xerof]

The police will be at your door soon. hold the phone, someone in a flak jacket is asking for me

[nextbigthing]

hold the phone, someone in a flak jacket is asking for me

Better than someone holding a Straitjacket, like what I suspect has happened to certain previous members :D

[Bobcat.]

Phone ANZ Securities on 0800 805777 opt 1 if you want actual times of the trade, otherwise attaching copies of your contract note(s) should suffice. It might seem odd that it's down to the second but that's because compensation is tied to whether or not you could've seen their market announcements - e.g. on 16/10 at 10:20am, PEB announced their PE Agreement with National Provider Network FedMed.
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3457369

[robbo24]

Phone ANZ Securities on 0800 805777 opt 1 if you want actual times of the trade, otherwise attaching copies of your contract note(s) should suffice. It might seem odd that it's down to the second but that's because compensation is tied to whether or not you could've seen their market announcements - e.g. on 16/10 at 10:20am, PEB announced their PE Agreement with National Provider Network FedMed.
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3457369

I like your enthusiasm but I am confident that my email to ANZ Securities asked for exactly what I needed. I'll need a hard copy anyway because the compensation claim form asks for evidence.

Edit: Contract note emails are delayed which means the pivotal second-by-second analysis may be flawed.

[Bobcat.]

If you sold some PEB on any of the dates within scope for compensation, you could do what I did - attach to your claim a copy of the contract note (dated but with no mention of trade time) and let PEB/Link investigate down to the actual second if they want to.

[robbo24]

If you sold some PEB on any of the dates within scope for compensation, you could do what I did - attach to your claim a copy of the contract note (dated but with no mention of trade time) and let PEB/Link investigate down to the actual second if they want to.

I need the evidence so that I can make an informed and educated compensation claim that complies with the requirements on the claim form.

I cannot calculate my net selling position unless I know the timing of my trades.

Therefore, I cannot provide evidence to support my net selling position.

Therefore, I cannot make a truthful and honest claim as to my net selling position without the timing of my trades.

Further, Link Market told me they do not have records of the timing of trades. So how can they investigate even if they want to?

[Bobcat.]

Robbo - the only documented evidence asked for by Link Services is a copy of your contract notes. If for good conscience you want certainty around the timing of any particular trade then contact your broker. I did mine and they were able to see not only the time of my order but also the actual time of each market trade. If you're with ANZS then phone them on 0800 805777 opt #1, and ask.

[skid]

Yes it does tell you something about the shareholders. Glass half full it tells you that they believe in the story and are happy to back the company when asked to, or glass half empty it tells you the shareholders aren't too financially savvy. Of those two options im not sure which one you are inferring? I prefer to hope you were inferring option 1. For disclosure I did not participate in the CR, my partner however did.

Im afraid its both options,in many cases.
Miner -The reason 1c is relevant is because it is selling on market at lower than the rights issue price.
Maybe that ground will be made up,but it does not bid well for the next few weeks---Man cannot live on faith alone--and that is what has been asked for a while now.
Now back to more cheerful subjects --like compensation

[couta1]

Actually Skid- Man cannot live on bread alone is the correct quotation:cool:

[skid]

Yes,I know Coutts:) There just doesnt seem to be much bread to be made ATM--maybe in the future..(which brings us back to faith)

[Minerbarejet]

Yes,I know Coutts:) There just doesnt seem to be much bread to be made ATM--maybe in the future..(which brings us back to faith)
Looks like there is some bread to be made with ATM at the moment.
Here you are Skid, this might make you feel better. Have some Edison.:)


http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=19&ID=14588&dir=monthlybooks&field=19

[Minerbarejet]

seems to be an awful lot riding on a successful kaiser user programThere certainly is for the Triage side of Cxbladder, we will just have to wait and see what the reaction is when its all done and dusted. It wont be next week. These things take time. First of all they have to find 2000 eligible patients and personally I wouldn't wish the circumstances on any one of them.

[nextbigthing]

Snaps brother. CMS coverage is due early 2014 and will make PEB. So until then just chill out and wait :cool:

[pak]

According to asb sec. bar chart. It looks like a big trade was made at end of play yesterday. Can anyone tell if it was a buy or sell?

[BlackPeter]

Snaps brother. CMS coverage is due early 2014 and will make PEB. So until then just chill out and wait :cool:

... maybe they use the islamic calender? Currently 1436 AH - another 578 years to go. On the bright side - the islamic year is a bit shorter than a full (western style) calendar year. So the wait might be shorter than we think ...

[BlackPeter]

According to asb sec. bar chart. It looks like a big trade was made at end of play yesterday. Can anyone tell if it was a buy or sell?

And stupid me always thought that a trade means somebody buying what somebody else sells. Just curious - how do you buy if nobody sells - and how do you sell if nobody buys?

[Minerbarejet]

According to asb sec. bar chart. It looks like a big trade was made at end of play yesterday. Can anyone tell if it was a buy or sell?
Do you mean was it a buyer going up to a seller or a seller dropping down to a buyer?
Cheers
Miner

[Minerbarejet]

... maybe they use the islamic calender? Currently 1436 AH - another 578 years to go. On the bright side - the islamic year is a bit shorter than a full (western style) calendar year. So the wait might be shorter than we think ...It will be around 21270 before they catch up though.
After that they will be ahead.
Cant wait.:)

[pak]

Yes sorry that was how I should have said it, thanks miner

[skid]

Looks like there is some bread to be made with ATM at the moment.
Here you are Skid, this might make you feel better. Have some Edison.:)


http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=19&ID=14588&dir=monthlybooks&field=19

Yep ATM is doing well (you dont have to convince me to look for another share that has momentum rather than relying on faith ) i believe we had another discussion along those lines regarding another Biotec farther along on the growth curve--You told me to stick to that and you would stick to your PEB(and thats what I did -and Im assuming thats what you did?--(I eventually sold as the SP looked to be taking a break) So I took my dosh and I am now in Burma for my own break,to get back in touch with the other side of life,far removed from our comfortable,but in some ways deprived lifestyle.
So Im feeling alright ,but thanks for your concern.--Its been interesting to watch but Im glad Im not immersed in it---Eventually Kaiser may provide some momentum--but we dont know if even that will provide provide it yet--and meanwhile alot more have pushed more chips on the table so the stakes are higher yet.

[forest]

If you sold some PEB on any of the dates within scope for compensation, you could do what I did - attach to your claim a copy of the contract note (dated but with no mention of trade time) and let PEB/Link investigate down to the actual second if they want to.

Just wondering why all the talk about compensation but it seems hard to get the detailed information of the particular dates/times.

If somebody could post some details that would be great. Cheers forest

[robbo24]

Just wondering why all the talk about compensation but it seems hard to get the detailed information of the particular dates/times.

If somebody could post some details that would be great. Cheers forest

Clause 2(a).

https://fma.govt.nz/news/enforcement-and-court-decisions/settlement-agreements/settlement-deed-pacific-edge-limited/

[forest]

Clause 2(a).

https://fma.govt.nz/news/enforcement-and-court-decisions/settlement-agreements/settlement-deed-pacific-edge-limited/
Thanks robbo

[Xerof]

you would have a letter from Link anyway forest

[Leftfield]

Date of relevant event: 6 July 2015
Date this disclosure made: 6 July 2015
Date last disclosure made: 5 August 2011

Substantial product holder(s) giving disclosure
Full name(s): K One W One Limited
Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary Shares

Summary for K One W One Limited
For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 20,286,297
(b) total in class: 376,543,478
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.388
For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 13,037,412
(b) total in class: 194,945,075
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.688

Looks like Tindall reducing their holdings. Not a great vote of confidence?

[psychic]

Date of relevant event: 6 July 2015
Date this disclosure made: 6 July 2015
Date last disclosure made: 5 August 2011

Substantial product holder(s) giving disclosure
Full name(s): K One W One Limited
Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary Shares

Summary for K One W One Limited
For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 20,286,297
(b) total in class: 376,543,478
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.388
For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 13,037,412
(b) total in class: 194,945,075
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.688

Looks like Tindall reducing their holdings. Not a great vote of confidence?

Not sure how you figure that Left Field....
(prev 13m now 20m..)

[Xerof]

Not quite. Lets deal with facts.

K1W1 has held that number of shares (20,286,297) for years now, unchanged.

What they are reporting as a Substantial Shareholder, is a change of >1%, due to dilution from the rights issue.

Of note though, is that they have not taken up their rights

[BirdPlane]

The % decrease is only due to dilution from the rights issues. Since their previous disclosure (August 2011) Tindall have taken up over 7 million new shares.

Summary for K One W One Limited
For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 20,286,297
(b) total in class: 376,543,478
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.388
For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 13,037,412
(b) total in class: 194,945,075
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.688

[winner69]

Of note though, is that they ( Kiwi) have not taken up their rights

Just repeating in case some have not worked it out - kiwi didn't take up their rights this time and as such their holding has been diluted.

Note they sold a couple million a year or so after the previous capital raising .....and made mega bucks.

So kiwi haven't really taken part in the last 2 cap raises.

Good thing ...they haven't entirely given up on PEB

[psychic]

Nah, agree. Having 20m shares isn't entirely giving up is it.. Held them throughout too eh? Don't they read ST?

[psychic]

Geez, SFM don't read ST either! Took the rights AND bought on market. Wasn't it only the Underwriter buying?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/266690

[Minerbarejet]

Geez, SFM don't read ST either! Took the rights AND bought on market. Wasn't it only the Underwriter buying?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/266690Better get a hold of SFM and tell them to keep up the good work.
Almost sounds as if the Underwriter was lucky to get some.:)



Well it is the "salt" fund

[winner69]

yeh right pass me another tui.........as we know the facts are out and the underwriter got 35% of this most recent amazing opportunity.......plus unknown extra's.
They are doing a good job so far of off loading them off market....albeit for a small loss.....


Salt had 19,982,035 (maybe another 350,000) .... 2 for 11 entitlement is 3,633,097

they were issued 10,432,490 as part of the rights issue

Fair chunk of the 35% not taken up eh

Will Salt hang on to them?

[trader_jackson]

What is interesting is Salt increased there stake right after the results were published, I also noticed they were one of the ones taking part in the conference call. Clearly they believe PEB has potential, and are therefore happy to increase their stake on several occasions.

They, like most fund managers, are probably looking long term (potentially very long term), and are 'comfortable' with giving management more of a chance than some of those on here.

I'm not sure what the underwriter is doing, but share price is still 'holding' (in fact went up today), which I actually think is amazing given a broad-based sell off (36/over 70% of the NZX 50 stocks decreased)... PEB was only 1 of 5 that actually increased (also just saw it was the best performer).

These times are most interesting as I have not seen the share price show any signs of dropping into the mid 50's (seems to be alot of support for 59 and above), despite macro (eg Greece) and micro (eg Management) factors, but like always, things can change...

[winner69]

winner what are the chances that salt's extra rights take up would be included in the 65% that was taken up therefore still leaving a solid 35% over hang. I noted at the time that PEB where taking their time with the results of cap raise announcement and I thought it may of been due to this sort of extra uptake trade.
I would have thought if it was not included that the extra take up would have gone through as a normal purchase.

Got me a bit puzzled as well. I think they may have an arrangement with FNZC to take some (a lot) of the leftovers, either as a sub-underwriter or just a (in)formal agreement. That way the shares could be issued direct to them (as the SSH implies) and were part of the 35%.

Like you I don't really know the real story. Jst speculation but don't forget that Salt bought some extra ones on market - a great sign of confidence



the 35% is about 20 million shares in round numbers? I would hope that the extra 7 million Salt took is included in that, wouldn't you (otherwise the 35% is close to 50%)

[Minerbarejet]

winner what are the chances that salt's extra rights take up would be included in the 65% that was taken up therefore still leaving a solid 35% over hang. I noted at the time that PEB where taking their time with the results of cap raise announcement and I thought it may of been due to this sort of extra uptake trade.
I would have thought if it was not included that the extra take up would have gone through as a normal purchase.
Refer to my posts 14073 & 14074 which were made after cap close date but prior to the cap results being announced.
Would it be fair to suggest that Salt bought 7 million rights while they were on sale and thus form part of the 65% uptake.
35% were scored by the Underwriter who cant believe his good fortune.:)

[psychic]

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=19&ID=14588&dir=monthlybooks&field=19

So 30th June 2015, PEB one of two focus stocks out of 60 or 70 odd international biotechs covered by Edison.

What , are they mad? They obviously don't read ST either dammit. Maybe Salt and First could call them - they must be able to flick off a few on behalf? They do want to sell them eh?

[trader_jackson]

I agree with you psychic, the capital raising, where over 65% of the shares on offer were sold successfully (despite numerous negative factors) was clearly a huge fail, and Salt along with Edison obviously have no idea what they are doing.

Apparently it was the underwriter doing the heavy supporting for the share price in the past (although the share price has yet to 'fall away')... must be the researcher (Edison) who might step up to do the heavy lifting now?

I couldn't think of anyone, especially not Salt and Edison (both very experienced), who would want to invest in a company with a fantastic product, increasing world-class recognition, expanding sales team, cash in hand to spend, and with management that has continually and recently reinforced they are confident with their $100m revenue in 5 full years of trading?

(there maybe a hint of sarcasm - just for fun:))

[psychic]

Oh wait TJ - you don't think maybe some of these PEB shares might get taken up by a gaggle of misguided international investors? PEB did prepare that business update thing recently..just sayin..

I mean, they'd be completely oblivious to the all the extra imaginative and entertaining stuff posted here!

Oh no - were not letting this thing go are we? Dammit, typical n zud huh. Knock it till it goes?

[Minerbarejet]

I think miner is probably correct and they(salt) probably gave an indication during the sale process that they would take up x amount if available therefore more than likely included in the 65/35 split.
Minor given the shares have been consistently trading below cap price I am sure the underwriter is not thrilled to have received 35% of the cap issue.:)I'll bet he is a lot more thrilled than if he had been on the receiving end of 70%.:)

So a small vote of thanks to Salt Fund for keeping the underwriter thrilled to bits.
Exciting isnt it.:D

[skid]

So it seems that the last announcement and capital raising has had alot more affect on the share price than a bad day on the markets

[Minerbarejet]

So it seems that the last announcement and capital raising has had alot more affect on the share price than a bad day on the marketsYeah, nah, she'll be right mate.
Think of how the 100 mill NZ will be so much easier to get with a NZD at 50cUS now its on the way down.:)

[Bobcat.]

Yeah, nah, she'll be right mate.
Think of how the 100 mill NZ will be so much easier to get with a NZD at 50cUS now its on the way down.:)

The NZD this morning is showing signs that it could now start strengthening...at least against the USD, GBP, CHF and possibly also the JPY. Still, I agree most exporters, including PEB, must be benefiting from its recent plummet. The drop in reported NZIER Business Confidence this morning (down from 23% to only 5%) has been pretty much ignored by the currency market - it was to be expected. Any positive news now will IMO strengthen the Kiwi dollar.

If the Aussie's hold their interest rates flat this afternoon, we might even ride up on their coat-tails - the AUD/USD has not been under 75c since the GFC.

Does anyone know if PEB has forex hedging in place?

[kiwidollabill]

Doubt they forex hedge.

Their lab consumable costs are going to see a fairly sharp rise about now - alot of the supplier companies have been thinning their margins in the last few years with the weak NZD/USD, the recent shift will require some big price increases.

[robbo24]

Did anyone else notice that the postage-paid return envelope for the PEB compensation form was mint flavoured?

Yum!!! :D

[Minerbarejet]

Did anyone else notice that the postage-paid return envelope for the PEB compensation form was mint flavoured?

Yum!!! :DThats very refreshing.

[psychic]

Oh there you go. Fuss about nothing. Probably oversubscribed! :) It was just a postie error after all

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/266730

[robbo24]

Oh there you go. Fuss about nothing. Probably oversubscribed! :) It was just a postie error after all

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/266730

I wonder if the same thing will happen with compensation mail :D

[psychic]

Did anyone else notice that the postage-paid return envelope for the PEB compensation form was mint flavoured?

Yum!!! :D

lol - that was poisonous mint Robbo! You know you didn't deserve the refund deep down eh..

[trader_jackson]

Seems like we may have even more acceptances than the original 65% or so would indicate! Not surprised of course that there were some last minutes mail entries, investors probably waiting to see what exactly would happen given most of the time the share price was close to the offer price. As I have stated earlier, investors clearly see value in PEB at the offer price...

Share price up again so far today, still waiting for it to drop into the mid 50's, although seems dramatically fewer sellers and alot more buyers, after heavy trading (so far). Maybe Salt is buying even more? Again, not surprised that the sells have dried up, and the buys are 'pouring' in... this is a long term stock where good things take time. Rome was not made in a day.

Any idea how 'material' this information is (ie 67% acceptance of 75% acceptance?)... suppose we will soon find out...

[Mista_Trix]

So I've been allotted shares even though I did not apply for any (they've shown up in my ANZ Share and Bond account - even though no forms or money has changed hands)... I wonder how many others are in the same boat???

[robbo24]

So I've been allotted shares even though I did not apply for any (they've shown up in my ANZ Share and Bond account - even though no forms or money has changed hands)... I wonder how many others are in the same boat???

Did you receive a letter from Link Market Services?

If not, the ANZ software may accidently treat the cap raise as a bonus issue or something along those lines. You might not actually own the shares on the register. Check your movements/transactions on your portfolio :D

[Mista_Trix]

Did you receive a letter from Link Market Services?

If not, the ANZ software may accidentally treat the cap raise as a bonus issue or something along those lines. You might not actually own the shares on the register. Check your movements/transactions on your portfolio :D

I think you're correct about that ... just didn't want to somehow mysteriously be charged for shares I don't want at the moment :-S
Bring on an EMA200 break, then I'll be a happier camper.

[trader_jackson]

Well lets look at the performance after the capital raising... WYN not so good from what I can see (issued at $1.79 was it? now $1.63...) Not sure if WYN did the same sort of style of capital raising which could have also had an effect... (but I am not so sure on this).

Ultimately, time will tell which one is more successful.
(today's trading, WYN continues to decrease, while PEB now up to 0.63 on unusually heavy trading)

[psychic]

did you check that chart I posted to see if the market agree's with your very positive view of PEB.
What did you make of it ?

Have you overlaid it with a chart of WYN?

[trader_jackson]

Of course, but I personally don't like to base investment decisions in a speculative company based on what the trends of the past is, especially if a big announcement of some kind is expected in the near future. I prefer to look at the future of the company and what lays ahead, but if you trade based on charts, ok.

Anyway, if we look back 2 years it is still higher than then.

[psychic]

WYN (with a similar market cap) just did a cap raise for about the same amount of money and it was fully subscribed in 24 hours...........now that is a positive vote of confidence.
65% take up is not
TJ I wished when I was a younger investor that I took more time to check if the general market was in tune with my way of thinking.
Have a look at the chart below to see if it matches your belief that the market is showing confidence in PEB.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PEB.NZ#symbol=PEB.NZ;range=6m

Don't follow you? Both raised a chunk through instos- PEB by way of Underwrite, WYN direct. The "public" part of the WYN CR hasn't even closed yet has it? How do you figure it has been a success by comparison?

Seems to me that the big boys are (again..... ) down on their investment in wyn, yet Firsts are , well UP. Despite your fuzzy logic on CR manipulation

[trader_jackson]

Well as with everything, time will tell. I think WYN is good actually, but with current share price weakness hard to say, also harder to compare seeing they are offering shares in a different way to PEB.

[blu3]

So I've been allotted shares even though I did not apply for any (they've shown up in my ANZ Share and Bond account - even though no forms or money has changed hands)... I wonder how many others are in the same boat???

Same here but this is because I was ineligible to buy more shares under the capital raise. In the email that I've received on the subject, they say: “The Rights that would otherwise be received by Ineligible Shareholders will be issued to a nominee who will endeavor to sell those Rights on the NZX Main Board on behalf of those Ineligible Shareholders. Proceeds from the sale of those Rights will be attributed to such Ineligible Shareholders on a pro-rata basis and net of transaction costs of 0.5%”. From that email I expected to receive some cash but I've been credited with extra shares instead. In any case, I'm definitely not going to complain.

[psychic]

very very confident WYN SPP will be oversubscribe.
Would you like to take a bet on it.

Being confident that it may oversubscribe is really not quite the same as saying that it was fully subscribed in 24 hours - is it.
Did you compare the charts WYN PEB ?

[barleeni]

TV3 6 o'çlock news reports PEB down 2 cents to $0.63 today. Shame that, and I foolishly thought it was going upwards! But snaps, it must be conceded the shareprice is indeed rising contrary to your predictions, mind you, early days yet.

[psychic]

7465
I'll try post one but dammit I suck at this.
So you really think WYN Holders would have stumped more than 65% of the full CR had WYN gone direct as PEB did huh?

[robbo24]

snaps, it must be conceded the shareprice is indeed rising contrary to your predictions

Snapiti sits at the red light chanting "green" then pats himself on the back when it changes... It's posting his PEB bearishness ad nauseam that allow him to achieve guru status with over 2500 posts :D

[winner69]

absolutely...... early days yet.....can't get it right all the time.......but have been fairly accurate on this one for the last 2 years despite a barrage of knockers.


The days are long, the decades are short.

[skid]

Of course, but I personally don't like to base investment decisions in a speculative company based on what the trends of the past is, especially if a big announcement of some kind is expected in the near future. I prefer to look at the future of the company and what lays ahead, but if you trade based on charts, ok.

Anyway, if we look back 2 years it is still higher than then.

So your saying to disregard what has actually happened in the past for what might happen in the future?
Could you please provide some details on how you are so sure a big announcement is expected in the future and that it will be positive rather than more problems?
You are starting to make some assumptions that should be perhaps clarified with an ''IMO''
A bit of clarification would help us understand your statements a bit better.
Lets not fall into the same bad habits that previous posters have made.

[trader_jackson]

Yes good point.

What I am saying is that I think it is hard to judge a stock like PEB based on purely on the past short term (eg 1 year) performance of the share price on a chart. It has been incredibly volatile. The past should be taken into account, but not to the extend that the past may be taken into account for a more mature, and most likely less speculative (and therefore less volatile) business.

So, I think it is far, far more important to look at the commentary on the future (and potential), not just from management (eg annual report) but from research firms such as Edison as well.

Future announcements could be bad news, I really don't know, but as PEB have a great product I think it will be at the worst case a 'neutral' announcement, but probably not bad. I think the next announcement will be regarding the success of one of the user programmes, but this is just my thinking (or maybe not so much of a success of that programme, but if as various reports have shown PEB have a great product so surely the user programme will also go well). I believe an announcement such as this could be within the quarter, and could potentially be a catalyst for the share price, but like alot of things on here this is pure speculation (ie my thoughts).

[Tsuba]

7465
I'll try post one but dammit I suck at this.
So you really think WYN Holders would have stumped more than 65% of the full CR had WYN gone direct as PEB did huh?

Shnaps you conveniently quote your knuckle bones and charts when they agree with your incessant drum beat but when Psychic asked you to compare the WYN chart to the PEB one ( Two early stage companies ) you seem to be lost for words or just conveniently ignoring him.

[kiwidollabill]

Having interacted with the senior management team of this company in the past and having some idea of the industry they work in. A retail investor shouldn't touch this with a 10 ft pole (unless you only want to be left with 6"). Nuff said.