PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

Good post blobbles and if I may quote Mac, Tick Tock:cool:

Are you averaging down on this one Coutts? (not making a judgement either way-just curious)

[skid]

Franko, the whole New Zealand market has been falling, and PEB, being a volatile stock, has been fittingly been affected more than most.

I think everyone on here agrees the AGM did not go 'flawlessly', and a lot of investors in PEB are nervous (understandingly as well), time will tell. Nothing material has been announced since the capital raising, in which time you are right the share price went to low 60's, now in high 50's post AGM. So the AGM, which we all agree didn't go that well (on the whole), has been the only thing that has had a small effect (5% or so since the lows during the capital raising). Nothing material about PEB's all important user programmes has been announced what so ever. There is therefore no other logical reason, except for negative investor sediment (most likely only as a result of general market sediment, and a fairly average AGM), as to why PEB's share price has realistically fallen... you seem to make out it is falling as a result of PEB's business detreating... like most investors, except the greats like warren, people on this forum can't just give PEB a couple more years


Its kinda hard to downplay this one TJ--for 2 good reasons-From what I read it was by far the worst performer (not just one of)---It broke that iron clad resistance of .60--getting into the .50s is a psychological hit(I think most would agree)

the second is that for success there has to be a management team that is on the ball to not only create opportunities ,but make sure they eventuate ---This was put into question at the AGM--so while maybe not much has changed ''on the ground'' many are doubting just how effective things are going there--ie. why is it taking so long? Are we just being impatient or is all not well?

[trader_jackson]

To be frank, unlike Franko, you do present some goodpoints skid

To go below the 0.60 barrier was a physiological hit I’lladmit that, but if the way things pan out we could be back into the 60’s againby the end of today so I am far from worried about a couple of hours/days ofvolatility (like most long term holders who also shouldn’t be worried)

I personally won’t be judging managements abilities 365days a year, around a couple of nervous hours at the AGM (where they might haveeven been sick), but I can understand those short term investors who would have/willdo.

I can see why it is easy for doubts to arise, but Ibelieve these should be put to bed for another 2-3 years (as only then we canreally see if they have delivered or not, a year or so is simply not longenough to “come out swinging” at management (in my view)

[Iolite]

Now to get on a totally different track.
Veterans Administration
Anyone know why this is taking so long to get on board?
There was some suggestion that the dossier had gone in to get on the supply schedule.
This would be followed by sales executives selling to all Veterans Hospitals and other facilities.
It was suggested it may be this year.

DD said at the AGM that they had just recently submitted their dossier to the VA, so I would assume sometime in July.
I've been doing some research and found this web page about the solicitation package provided to potential suppliers to the VA:
Schedule 65 VII In Vitro Diagnostics, Reagents, Test Kits, & Test Sets overview page (http://www.va.gov/oal/business/fss/schedule65vii.asp)

If you go to the above page then click on the link to the actual schedule you get taken to the page below, where you can download all the sections of the schedule as Word documents:
65--65VII InVitro Diagnostics, Reagents, Test Kits & Test Sets Solicitation Refreshment M5-Q52A-04-R5 (https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=a8dbc705b8f8ab11aa0ac10db8c7dc96&tab=core&_cview=1)

Of relevance to your question Miner:
On page 7 of the Read Me First document from the 65VII (R5) schedule (https://www.vendorportal.ecms.va.gov/FBODocumentServer/DocumentServer.aspx?DocumentId=1137044&FileName=M5-Q52A-04-R5-004.docx) it states:
"In general, proposals will be reviewed and, if applicable, awarded within six (6) months from the time they are assigned to a Contract Specialist."
Also:
"The offer process time can vary depending on:


The timeliness of your responses to requests for clarification or additional information
The quality and completeness of the proposal and subsequent clarification responses
Complexity of the proposal
Number of line items offered
Quality assurance reviews"


So, assuming their proposal has been assigned to a contract specialist already, and all going well, it is possible they could get approval from the VA by the end of this year.
I think it more likely to be first quarter of next year though.

[Iolite]

To go below the 0.60 barrier was a physiological hit I’lladmit that, but if the way things pan out we could be back into the 60’s againby the end of today so I am far from worried about a couple of hours/days ofvolatility (like most long term holders who also shouldn’t be worried)


Rather than a psychological hit, long-term investors who still believe in the company might well view this as a great opportunity to buy more! :t_up:

Personally I'm still somewhat cautious and I don't have the funds to buy more at this time any way. I am content to stay with my current holding for now. I'm waiting to see how things go until the end of 2016. It appears that 2016 will be the year of big announcements or big disappointments.

P.S. Don't feed the trolls - just use the ignore posts function! :cool:.

[Balance]

Any investor reading through the thread will know who to thank for the timely postings which have saved them heaps.

[trader_jackson]

Looks like the "panic sells" have gone through, and we'll be back in the 60's tomorrow, don't know why I am posting this (I suppose to reassure those who can't see more than 3 months into the future?), its a long term game after all with PEB...

[Hoop]

I should think so, you must be a glutton for punishment :). has the BIO thread been lost in the ravages of sharetrader time?
No punishment with PEB..It's treated me very well..For a while people were skeptical of me posting TA charts after the event so for a year I posted charts of 3 companies when I bought and sold...This chart posted 14th November 2014 page 700 Post #10491 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd/page700) (yes there's been 3500 posts since then) was an updated version a few months later but it still clearly shows my 2x2 trades...dredging back further among the posting noise you would find my other postings ..Heres my 24th Sept 2014 Post #9968 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd/page665) saying I sold out that day for 88c

Sadly I can't say the same for Bio..It was a spec stock so I didn't use TA...in hindsight I wished I had...

[skid]

More assumptions TJ?--Mac would be proud

You may be right,but the iron clad resistance has been broken--If it makes it out of the 50s it will be easier now to revisit---interesting days.... (maybe we will get back to the comfortable 60-63 pattern--if enough investors have short memories)

[skid]

No punishment with PEB..It's treated me very well..For a while people were skeptical of me posting TA charts after the event so for a year I posted charts of 3 companies when I bought and sold...This chart posted 14th November 2014 page 700 Post #10491 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd/page700) (yes there's been 3500 posts since then) was an updated version a few months later but it still clearly shows my 2x2 trades...dredging back further among the posting noise you would find my postings

Sadly I can't say the same for Bio..It was a spec stock so I didn't use TA...in hindsight I wished I had...

so are you ready to throw some money at PEB hoop?:)

[Hoop]

so are you ready to throw some money at PEB hoop?:)
NO!!!! :)....the chart is bloody awful.. but interesting to a chartist..Interesting because PEB has been in a very consistent and predictable downtrend... you can nearly predict when each leg down would/will? next occur.
I may bore people on this thread with a chart showing this rather unique feature...

[skid]

NO!!!! :)....the chart is bloody awful.. but interesting to a chartist..Interesting because PEB has been in a very consistent and predictable downtrend... you can nearly predict when each leg down would/will? next occur.
I may bore people on this thread with a chart showing this rather unique feature...

Sounds interesting...but expect a backlash:eek2: from those that have taken the fun out of fundamentals..and just left the mental :D

[trader_jackson]

No arguments the past chart looks pretty terrible, but I'm not living in the past :)

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pacific-edge4
(http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pacific-edge4)

Another analyst revising upward the valuation of PEB... a half a billion dollar company? Even if it does drop out of the famed NZX 50, won't be long till its back in (if this proves true)

[winner69]

No arguments the past chart looks pretty terrible, but I'm not living in the past :)

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pacific-edge4
(http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pacific-edge4)

Another analyst revising upward the valuation of PEB... a half a billion dollar company? Even if it does drop out of the famed NZX 50, won't be long till its back in (if this proves true)

Updated your DCF model yet t_j?

[trader_jackson]

As expected, the "panic sells" have gone through, and we're back to the physiological important 60's, where once again buy orders outweighs sell orders by a sizeable margin... I expect it will hang around here until we get a sizeable announcement by the company regarding user programmes (which will hopefully be sometime this year)

Could always be a few more "panic sells" to go through...

[blackcap]

physiological important 60's, where once again buy orders outweighs sell orders by a sizeable margin...

.

You do realise that depth is an illusion? To me it really says nothing at all. Many times in my younger years I was bewitched by the depth till I realised that often there are orders waiting in the wings not being shown on screen.... Also I do not see buyers at 60, I see a seller at 59 and sellers at 60.
Not to say PEB will not break through the 60 cent mark again, just beware of depth as it really is no indication of anything in my opinion.

( I presume Edison are leveraging themselves to the hilt to buy PEB since it is on a 50% sale? :P)

[couta1]

You do realise that depth is an illusion? To me it really says nothing at all. Many times in my younger years I was bewitched by the depth till I realised that often there are orders waiting in the wings not being shown on screen.... Also I do not see buyers at 60, I see a seller at 59 and sellers at 60.
Not to say PEB will not break through the 60 cent mark again, just beware of depth as it really is no indication of anything in my opinion. Depth is as changeable as the weather but still it's good to see good interest from buyers albeit in the 55-57c range(Obviously some know a bargain when they see one aye)

[trader_jackson]

I think PEB must be stocked at Briscoes... it's been about 50% off for a while (not just "Thursday mid day till midnight")... and like most of the brands at Briscoes, the product is great but investors just aren't ready to buy yet

[Balance]

If you like discounts, try Edison's valuation on SeaDragon - a whopping 67% discount.

You get 200% upside from current level!

:D

[couta1]

If you like discounts, try Edison's valuation on SeaDragon - a whopping 67% discount.

You get 200% upside from current level!

:D Just think though you could get a whooping 800% in 5 years if you buy these cheap as chips PEB shares for those who don't like fish oil.

[twotic]

Please say you guys are taking the piss when talking up the Edison valuation. These guys get paid to value companies by the companies themselves - go figure the valuations are always significantly higher than the current SP. Not to mention the last time I chatted to them about their research on PEB they referenced much of their sources as "information from CEO Donald Dudley" or something equally as ridiculous ;)

[twotic]

Guys, let me put you out of your misery.

- PEB has an excellent product but an unsophisticated management team, at least in NZ.
- The product will eventually succeed, in spite of management incompetence.
- But it will take time.
- In the meantime, fretting over every last detail is costing a lot your time.
- You could be spending that time doing something more enjoyable, liking cutting your fingers off.

You're welcome.

oh, and p.s., hiding Franko was one of the best things I've done in ages. You should give it a try. I was starting to feel quite out of balance.

I generally agree with New Guy although I question points 2 & 3. That is what everyone should be trying to figure out and there is quite a bit of information out there now to point you to some sort of conclusion.

The big question mark though, supposing you buy into NG's conclusion, is what will hold the SP up in the near term IF it is going to take a long time to succeed?? If you can't think of anything, I'm a little unsure as to why one would want to hold this stock on its continued down trend....(other than avoiding the psychological blow of dealing with a short term loss - or the fear of missing out).

[winner69]

Please say you guys are taking the piss when talking up the Edison valuation. These guys get paid to value companies by the companies themselves - go figure the valuations are always significantly higher than the current SP. Not to mention the last time I chatted to them about their research on PEB they referenced much of their sources as "information from CEO Donald Dudley" or something equally as ridiculous ;)

It gives credence to what most think 2tic - confirms how valuable this is when things turn out for the good.

[twotic]

It gives credence to what most think 2tic - confirms how valuable this is when things turn out for the good.

Each to their own I guess. I would advise a few people to take a look at Edison's valuations on SNK (and various other small cap stocks that they have covered in NZ) and subsequently how SNK has done over the years. Might not provide as much credence as one wants :)

I'm not trying to create trouble here by the way, just putting out a bit of a warning on how much weight to put on an Edison valuation for those that may not know much about them.

[twotic]

Try valuecruncher if you think Edison is nuts.
Anyway isnt taking the p--- what PEB is all about?:)

Haha touché mate!

EDIT: Wow, valuecruncher! PEB Undervalued by 9,999%

[trader_jackson]

On a small side note to someone who could only see sells at 59c... All I see now is sells at 61c and buys lining up at 60c... The volatility continues

[skid]

Hows Edison doing so far with their valuation of PEB?--ie-when was their first valuation and how is that playing out--Have they have earned your respect so far,with this stock?

Are you happy with the way PEB is going?

What have they done to reassure you that they will reverse their path(SP wise)?

Are you basing your investment decisions on 3rd party's actions,or the company itself.

Do you have faith that management can successfully promote the product or are you relying on the science alone,and if so,why do we have Marketing?(ie people want and need the product--how do
we show them that)?

Is there anything they can improve upon? (like knowing when to get real marketing professionals in if they cant properly promote?)

Do you see PEBs products mentioned on any of the mainstream cancer sites?

How long did it take competitors products to ,pass trials,become recognized, and start meaningful sales.

Is it possible to achieve meaningful sales before American trials are finished? ie are other successful trial outcomes enough?

Does Jackie have enough clout and enough power to do the job herself and will she continue to stay with the company(if it is not achieving results?)

Is she and the salesmen on commission--are they making enough while waiting for things to start moving.

Has management given any indication of their actual plan (strategy) to achieve their goal?

Will a successful trial outcome be enough to create the exponential growth required?

Is 100% of a small number an indication that there will be 100% of a large number (growth)?

Are you looking at factual research or going with your gut?

Does the fact that its cheaper than last month/year make it actually cheap? (Is that a given?)

If you had put your original investment in a term deposit what would the difference in the bottom line be at this point?

Have you ever had a look at what constitutes an gambling addiction?

Do you blame others for the success or failure of the company?

[couta1]

Your questions will be answered in the fullness of time which is not yet, for us holders all will be confirmed when that time cometh. PS-Have you ever thought of retraining as a psychologist.

[psychic]

You are one of the most prolific posters on this thread Skid yet seemingly have read or understood little of what has been posted on many of the questions you ask.

How about doing some serious research yourself instead of recording your every passing thought here. Disprove the science, the space, the potential, the need. If you cannot, then perhaps proceed to "how does new technology enter the healthcare market and change clinical practice". Should you still determine the answer lies with shoe salesmen and funky marketing, go back and try again.

You are an avid follower and I suspect frightened that one day you may just miss out. Spend the time now and make up your own mind. If it's not for you then fine, move on. But offering advice and continually questioning everything about a stock (or it's investors) that you do neither hold nor really understand helps no one.

[couta1]

This thread really should be renamed "Skid's random stream of consciousness."
Sounds very New age New Guy and Frankly I'm finding it hard to Balance it all up without Skidding all over the place.

[skid]

You are one of the most prolific posters on this thread Skid yet seemingly have read or understood little of what has been posted on many of the questions you ask.

How about doing some serious research yourself instead of recording your every passing thought here. Disprove the science, the space, the potential, the need. If you cannot, then perhaps proceed to "how does new technology enter the healthcare market and change clinical practice". Should you still determine the answer lies with shoe salesmen and funky marketing, go back and try again.

You are an avid follower and I suspect frightened that one day you may just miss out. Spend the time now and make up your own mind. If it's not for you then fine, move on. But offering advice and continually questioning everything about a stock (or it's investors) that you do neither hold nor really understand helps no one.

So you dont think theres any reason to ask those questions?........ok (some may agree that its time some questions need to be asked)....and some dont..obviously--a bit less emotion and more facts would help..

maybe you can help figure out the puzzle--Science is great--potential,well,thats just some people talking---so why is this share in the doldrums?

Guess that last question was relevant after all....

[trader_jackson]

You know what I think? I think the admin should ban this thread for at least 2 years... then and only then is the time when we can actually start to 'judge' PEB's commercialisation success... up until then it is really just wild shots from all over the spectrum (myself included:))

But then in 2 years time when the thread is unlocked a lot of people may not "face the music" that PEB is in fact a commercial success with half a billion dollar valuation...

EDIT: finished on 61c? As I predicted the "panic/short term viewed sells" maybe behind us

[Balance]

A few observations from today :

1. Edison Research - damp squib with zero credibility. :eek2:

2. So called 'long term' investors quick to discount any sp fall as irrelevant, but double quick to talk up any sp rise. Pathetic. :D

[trader_jackson]

Franko, the share price fall, where suddenly many people jumped in saying it was likely to continue to fall (I think someone said 55-57c or something?), was clearly irrelevant, it didn't last more than 2 trading days! :t_up:

(all I basically did was reserve the fact that even if it did fall, in the long run it ain't going to make much of a difference)

[Balance]

Franko, the share price fall, where suddenly many people jumped in saying it was likely to continue to fall (I think someone said 55-57c or something?), was clearly irrelevant, it didn't last more than 2 trading days! :t_up:

(all I basically did was reserve the fact that even if it did fall, in the long run it ain't going to make much of a difference)

Agree with you there. A few cents here and there mean nothing when the shares are trading at 1 cent in the long run. The company's track record to date of not delivering on expectations point to that fate.

[Balance]

1 Correct
2 Where the heck do you get off telling others they are pathetic when you are describing any uplift as something to be ignored and double quick to jump on any downward movement with angst, attitude and acrimony towards the company.
Have a lovely day, if possible.

Share has been on a downtrend for how long?

Am just stating the obvious.

[Balance]

So you dont think theres any reason to ask those questions?........ok (some may agree that its time some questions need to be asked)....and some dont..obviously--a bit less emotion and more facts would help..

maybe you can help figure out the puzzle--Science is great--potential,well,thats just some people talking---so why is this share in the doldrums?

Guess that last question was relevant after all....

One of Richard Feynman's famous saying comes to mind : "I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned."

[trader_jackson]

PEB has been on a slow downward trend for a year (if that)... if you are basing a whole company's track record based on a year's trends, I think this is incredibly short sighted... Warren would probably also agree... give it time, as I said, lets shut this thread down and have a look at the trend over 3 years (previous year + 2 more years), then we can begin to judge 'trends', and even then 3 years is probably to short.

1 cent? Really? I mean like that's totally irrational really... a bit ridiculous to say the lest... PEB is not a coal company heavily in debt...

No questions about PEB's success can yet be answered, so yes I agree Franko on your statement (quote), it fits PEB exactly

[Balance]

PEB has been on a slow downward trend for a year (if that)... if you are basing a whole company's track record based on a year's trends, I think this is incredibly short sighted... Warren would probably also agree... give it time, as I said, lets shut this thread down and have a look at the trend over 3 years (previous year + 2 more years), then we can begin to judge 'trends', and even then 3 years is probably to short.

1 cent? Really? I mean like that's totally irrational really... a bit ridiculous to say the lest... PEB is not a coal company heavily in debt...

No questions about PEB's success can yet be answered, so yes I agree Franko on your statement (quote), it fits PEB exactly

Why shut this thread down?

This thread has saved many from either investing in PEB, or if they had, divesting before the sp lost so much value in the last year - by virtue of timely warnings from some well informed and balanced posters.

Likewise, this thread probably also made money for those who jumped in when the stock was flying 2 years ago - as long as they saw through all the hype as events unfolded.

[skid]

Would suggest again, as I have said before,
that if anyone was really interested in obtaining all these answers then they should have bought a few PEB shares, attended the AGM, asked their questions, and chatted amongst the gathering. I'm afraid you have missed the boat for this year, Skid, but we will do our best to help out, eventually.
Waiting to get all the right answers and all the boxes ticked before jumping in and then take profits 3 cents up the track might seem to be a tad shortsighted to many long term holders. There are some risks, people are aware of them, people have made decisions and are prepared to take responsibility for those decisions upon themselves.

The 3 cents was just a bit of fun with some extra dosh while waiting.
But asking questions and trying to tick as many boxes as possible BEFORE buying is something altogether different.
Ive been a holder and may be one again if things start to tick--but jumping on board for any other reason is just gambling.
Im open to a change of view on PEB--That may come--but just being in the club while ignoring other factors is not my way of doing things--Im not stuck in one point of view---when they earn it Ill rejoice with the rest of you ,even though I miss some early gains.(doesnt seem fair does it-that I can just jump on when things start to tick (if they do)
Of course the opposite side of the coin is that Ive missed the falls as well.

[trader_jackson]

In reply to Franko, to be frank, it has helped those who brought in at 50c and sold at $1.70 yes, of which I believe there were very few.

It doesn't help when you have people claiming management "to date" have never delivered, supported by just 1 (or less) year of trends (effectively baseless claims because management have never claimed a year ago they would be able to "deliver" today) hence for best the balance, although I realise it won't happen, it is best to "mute" the thread.

Give everyone time to take breather, and give management a chance to actually deliver, and answer the questions that can't today be reliably answered. What is nice to see is several institutions and several analysts increasing their stake/upgrading their view on it, they, unlike some of the users on here, seem to understand that management never claimed this time last year that they would have "delivered" by (what is now) today... and understand most of all "Rome wasn't built in a day [or 1 year]"

[Balance]

In reply to Franko, to be frank, it has helped those who brought in at 50c and sold at $1.70 yes, of which I believe there were very few.

It doesn't help when you have people claiming management "to date" have never delivered, supported by just 1 (or less) year of trends (effectively baseless claims because management have never claimed a year ago they would be able to "deliver" today) hence for best the balance, although I realise it won't happen, it is best to "mute" the thread.

Give everyone time to take breather, and give management a chance to actually deliver, and answer the questions that can't today be reliably answered. What is nice to see is several institutions and several analysts increasing their stake/upgrading their view on it, they, unlike some of the users on here, seem to understand that management never claimed this time last year that they would have "delivered" by (what is now) today... and understand most of all "Rome wasn't built in a day [or 1 year]"

TJ, Management claimed that the $20.5m capital raising in 2013 will take the company to profitability. Exact quote : “The Board is fully confident that the funds being raised will be sufficient to cover operating expenses until Pacific Edge achieves profitability."

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/242760

The fact that the company has to raise new capital within 1.5 years of that capital raise and the company is not in sight of any profitability surely means the company 'has not delivered.'

It is very clear that whatever plans (the management had to achieve profitability with that $20.5m capital raise) have not panned out - no explanation has been forthcoming but it is a fair assumption that the management has not been able to achieve those plans - in other words, fail to deliver.

Those who sold out at the beginning of the year saved themselves a minus 31% loss. Those who bailed out when this rights issue was announced saved themselves minus 16.5%. All thanks to those who vigilantly and diligently monitor the company, its pronouncements to the market and hold the company to account.

I think STMOD will agree that this thread has been very useful and is serving the purpose ST is set up for - not withstanding the aggro from time to time.

[skid]

Let me be the first to resign.
Cheers
Miner:)

You tried that before Miner---It didnt work

You can censor yourself(or try) but to censor the thread ....well it might work in North Korea...


Meanwhile...''Sure'' take all the time you need--just dont ask for any more money,and be prepared to back up your actions.

and just for you Psychic...

Is the (proven)science alone enough to carry the product through
on its own, to exponential growth? ie..are there other market forces at work in the world of medical uptake?


and finally--Has anyone found a cure for Grumpiness?:)

[Tsuba]

Has anyone found a cure for Grumpiness?:)

Pick me. Just get yourself a hot bird.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G-71e8lg64

[Balance]

So why has PEB failed to deliver?

Been doing a bit of digging and it is clear that management were wildly optimistic about :

1. Uptake of CxBladder

2. Price achievable per test.

For reference, read the presentation given at the time of the first $20m capital raise in 2011 : https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/143330.pdf

Page 10 : PEB considered it has launched CxBladder in NZ And Australia, and Spain and Portugal later in 2011.
Fact : NZ And Australia have been very slow for sales, and we know that Spain and Portugal have delivered nothing (despite agreements signed Oryzon).

Page 25 : Indicative gross margin of US$450 - US$530 a test.
Fact : Numbers from PEB suggest the company is not achieving even half of that in sale per unit, let alone gross margin.

In fact, if one were to calculate the margin based upon throughput at the labs, sale per unit would probably be less than US$25 per unit, and gross margin would actually be gross loss per unit.

[psychic]

So why has PEB failed to deliver?

Been doing a bit of digging and it is clear that management were wildly optimistic about :

1. Uptake of CxBladder

2. Price achievable per test.

For reference, read the presentation given at the time of the first $20m capital raise in 2011 : https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/143330.pdf

Page 10 : PEB considered it has launched CxBladder in NZ And Australia, and Spain and Portugal later in 2011.
Fact : NZ And Australia has been very slow for sales, and we know that Spain and Portugal have delivered nothing (despite agreements signed Oryzon).

Page 25 : Indicative gross margin of US$450 - US$530 a test.
Fact : Numbers from PEB suggest the company is not achieving even half of that in sale per unit, let alone gross margin.


Blunt spade eh, no surprises.

But you had a go at least. Skid still stuck on Q2

[Balance]

Blunt spade eh, no surprises.

But you had a go at least. Skid still stuck on Q2

Blunt it may be but PEB's management have bluntly refused to admit any slippage from their business plans, and the market is not fooled.

Care to give us your assessment, in the interest of understanding why this stock has lost 31% for shareholders since beginning of 2015?

PS. More losses ahead if it gets kicked out of NZX50. SCL will replace PEB and even THL now has a higher market capitalisation than PEB.

[nextbigthing]

Management did a great job developing the product. Now they seem a bit like a rudderless ship with no map. Time to roll them and replace with expert health marketers? When is enough enough? Another cap raising will be difficult, so why not give another team the last shot? Tough measure but how many years and millions are you prepared to wait?

[psychic]

Blunt it may be but PEB's management have bluntly refused to admit any slippage from their business plans, and the market is not fooled.

Care to give us your assessment, in the interest of understanding why this stock has lost 31% for shareholders since beginning of 2015?

PS. More losses ahead if it gets kicked out of NZX50. SCL will replace PEB and even THL now has a higher market capitalisation than PEB.

If you really did have an interest in understanding this stock, I would take the time to correct you.

But you do not. You did not as Balance, you do not as Franko.

[Balance]

If you really did have an interest in understanding this stock, I would take the time to correct you.



Luckily readers know who has been right and who has been wrong.

Losses = wrong.

[couta1]

Luckily readers know who has been right and who has been wrong.

Losses = wrong.
Very Unbalanced viewpoint. Paper Losses= Watch & Wait. Real Losses= A Learning opportunity.

[kiwidollabill]

Is the (proven)science alone enough to carry the product through
on its own, to exponential growth? ie..are there other market forces at work in the world of medical uptake?



Let me just chime in one more technical point....

The current DNA cancer testing panels (i.e. KRAS, BRAF) offered in the market (at ~$200/test) are about determining if a patient is eligible for a particular drug known to target that particular genotype of cancer. The value proposition is to spend $200 to determine if it is worth funding $20k worth of drugs. PEB is targeting a slightly different market where the price points available are significantly less, and targeting the business of existing methodology. I think the comparison between 'anticipated GM' and what they have been able to achieve may speak to this point.

[psychic]

Let me just chime in one more technical point....

The current DNA cancer testing panels (i.e. KRAS, BRAF) offered in the market (at ~$200/test) are about determining if a patient is eligible for a particular drug known to target that particular genotype of cancer. The value proposition is to spend $200 to determine if it is worth funding $20k worth of drugs. PEB is targeting a slightly different market where the price points available are significantly less, and targeting the business of existing methodology. I think the comparison between 'anticipated GM' and what they have been able to achieve may speak to this point.
The last time you popped up with some nonsense comparing the price of CxBladder to a melanoma assay, I dug out a link to the CMS price schedule for UroVysion. This forgotten, you now come back with an anticipated margin and compare it to what has been achieved.

How do you arrive at your anticipated margin? What margin has actually been achieved on tests sold US? (And PLEASE don't quote Franko as your source for information)

[Balance]

Very Unbalanced viewpoint. Paper Losses= Watch & Wait. Real Losses= A Learning opportunity.

Keep learning. :D

[psychic]

While we wait, others preferring information of a factual nature may be interested to know that the proposed CMS National Unadj rate released July for the manual (inferior) UroVysion test is $627.40 2015 and $649.25 2016. Lovely US dollars that is..

[kiwidollabill]

The last time you popped up with some nonsense comparing the price of CxBladder to a melanoma assay, I dug out a link to the CMS price schedule for UroVysion. This forgotten, you now come back with an anticipated margin and compare it to what has been achieved.

How do you arrive at your anticipated margin? What margin has actually been achieved on tests sold US? (And PLEASE don't quote Franko as your source for information)

Of course it is near on impossible to get exact figures because PEB doesnt release the kind of info needed.

The 2015 report shows $1,899,665 'sales' across NZ and US, with direct laboratory costs of $588,367. 'Assume' their retail sales estimates of $US786 / test and with an average Xchange rate of 0.7c it works out to be ~1700 tests 'sold' in the last year. However on the other side, US$100 cost of sale (probably a high estimate of COGS) is ~4100 tests. Either the numbers in the report aren't what I'm inferring them to be, or their costs have gone up (unlikely), or what they are able to sell the test for is alot less that originally estimated. I'm making a few assumptions with the use of these numbers but I feel they are likely to be in the ballpark

[psychic]

Correct. The numbers in the report are not what you are inferring them to be.

[kiwidollabill]

Then what numbers should we use to answer the questions around # of tests, margin, COGS?

[Balance]

Then what numbers should we use to answer the questions around # of tests, margin, COGS?

PEB has much to hide due to their inability to deliver against their statements - so they will never release the numbers.

Unfortunately for PEB however, I predict the last capital raising will indeed be their last.

Amen.

[psychic]

The $100 COGS per test is correct. Number of tests we can only approximate but I doubt your US$786 average NZ/US is near the mark. How did you make that assumption?
Lab expenses $588k will include costs unrelated to processing (sold) CxBladder Detect tests.

[kiwidollabill]

The $786 was the quoted number in the 2011 presentation.
So we can agree that they've processed ~4100 tests as a group (sales/KP/research) in 2015? That's not a lot....

[trader_jackson]

Do not worry, all will be revealed and analysable in 2+ years time

And Franko as you weren't at the annual meeting once again you have no idea why management couldn't "deliver" on the statement regarding the previous capital raising delivering them to profitability (which clearly, yes, they did not deliver on)... it is because things are taking longer than expected (as they stated at the meeting)... any logical person would be able to see this anyway.

Just like any logical person knows that its a domino effect, once a few urologist start taking up PEB's product, they all will (as also mentioned by Jackie at the annual meeting) THey are currently at the stage with the first few... so you, once again, have no claim that management haven't "delivered" when they, once again, have not had the time to be able to.

No need to release exact numbers, as the exact sales contracts have not yet been set up, clearly you don't seem to know that PEB have only just begun commercialising their product... another member also mentioned that they (may) need to be at least 2 years as a commercial company (or something to this effect) in order to be able to sell their product in the US "in droves", they have not yet meet this requirement.

Franko, I therefore think it is best to listen to the recording of this year's annual general meeting (is there such thing? Not sure, but hopefully for your sake there is), as well as this years annual report, as well as the previous 100 pages of this thread, particularly your statements. Then and only then will you realise your statements have "come out of the blue" and almost always completely invalid.

(and of course they aren't going to need another capital raising! they'll be making 10's of millions within the decade!)

[psychic]

PEB has much to hide due to their inability to deliver against their statements - so they will never release the numbers.

Unfortunately for PEB however, I predict the last capital raising will indeed be their last.

Amen.

Keep up. They won't need another.

[psychic]

The $786 was the quoted number in the 2011 presentation.
So we can agree that they've processed ~4100 tests as a group (sales/SP/research) in 2015? That's not a lot....

That's not their target

[Balance]

Keep up. They won't need another.

Haha, from the company which stated (fully confident) that the last capital raising will take them to profitability? Pull the other leg.

[couta1]

I'm hoping the Mods will give this thread another suspension period or as others have suggested pull it altogether as its heading down the same pointless road it did some time ago and is just becoming another T site.

[nextbigthing]

....
.. once a few urologist start taking up PEB's product, they all will (as also mentioned by Jackie at the annual meeting) THey are currently at the stage with the first few...

Did Jackie quantify this with numbers?

They have been at the 'first few' stage for a while now.

[nextbigthing]

I'm hoping the Mods will give this thread another suspension period or as others have suggested pull it altogether as its heading down the same pointless road it did some time ago and is just becoming another T site.

I hope they bring back the negative rep thing :D

[skid]

I'm hoping the Mods will give this thread another suspension period or as others have suggested pull it altogether as its heading down the same pointless road it did some time ago and is just becoming another T site.

if you go down to the left hand corner of your computer ,you will eventually get to a little sign that says ''shut down'' press it--other option is when you see PEB on your ST page DONT press it.

meanwhile ,if that doesnt suit,some facts about PEB would be good --you have said enough about posters.

[skid]

Do not worry, all will be revealed and analysable in 2+ years time

And Franko as you weren't at the annual meeting once again you have no idea why management couldn't "deliver" on the statement regarding the previous capital raising delivering them to profitability (which clearly, yes, they did not deliver on)... it is because things are taking longer than expected (as they stated at the meeting)... any logical person would be able to see this anyway.

Just like any logical person knows that its a domino effect, once a few urologist start taking up PEB's product, they all will (as also mentioned by Jackie at the annual meeting) THey are currently at the stage with the first few... so you, once again, have no claim that management haven't "delivered" when they, once again, have not had the time to be able to.

No need to release exact numbers, as the exact sales contracts have not yet been set up, clearly you don't seem to know that PEB have only just begun commercialising their product... another member also mentioned that they (may) need to be at least 2 years as a commercial company (or something to this effect) in order to be able to sell their product in the US "in droves", they have not yet meet this requirement.

Franko, I therefore think it is best to listen to the recording of this year's annual general meeting (is there such thing? Not sure, but hopefully for your sake there is), as well as this years annual report, as well as the previous 100 pages of this thread, particularly your statements. Then and only then will you realise your statements have "come out of the blue" and almost always completely invalid.

(and of course they aren't going to need another capital raising! they'll be making 10's of millions within the decade!)

Do you really think investors are going to wait 2+ yrs with no updates or hint of where the strategy for this puppy is going? Not good enough TJ

If the SP had more of less stayed the same over the last year, there might be a ray of hope in that idea, but...

[Balance]

Do you really think investors are going to wait 2+ yrs with no updates or hint of where the strategy for this puppy is going? Not good enough TJ

If the SP had more of less stayed the same over the last year, there might be a ray of hope in that idea, but...

They say that the market is driven by hope, greed and fear.

Do we sense plenty of hope (in the face of evidence to the category) from some posters and fear (in the face of a falling share price with little respite) in some posters?

Greed left a long time ago.

[blackcap]

They say that the market is driven by hope, greed and fear.

Do we sense plenty of hope (in the face of evidence to the category) from some posters and fear (in the face of a falling share price with little respite) in some posters?

Greed left a long time ago.

I believe Franko may be correct here. Its interesting from a psychological point of view to analyse the posts. Posters that are perturbed and bothered by negative posts on a stock for mine are too emotionally invested and probably at the stage of hope and fear.
I can only anecdotally look to myself and surmise that if I have a stock in which I am fully confident, no matter the amount of negative posting it will not affect me one bit. If it did bother me it probably means I am not fully comfortable with that position... it would mean that its time to do more homework and maybe just maybe contemplate the inevitable that I got it wrong in the first place.
This not only applies to PEB but any stock really for that matter.

[couta1]

Personally Blackcap I don't feel emotionally tied to Peb (Its just one of many of my red arrowed stocks) Being a medical person I understand how the wheels roll in this part of the world and what it takes to make it. Now I'm sure everyone would agree the marketing side of things will need to be sharp for ultimate success and if not success will be of a lacklustre variety but its all early days yet. Negative posts are fine as long as the whole thread doesn't become controlled by them and non holders and once someone has made their point or landed their plane then why not back off? Personal crusades just to stoke ones ego are not what a forum should be about.

[Balance]

No need to release exact numbers, as the exact sales contracts have not yet been set up, clearly you don't seem to know that PEB have only just begun commercialising their product... another member also mentioned that they (may) need to be at least 2 years as a commercial company (or something to this effect) in order to be able to sell their product in the US "in droves", they have not yet meet this requirement.



Commercialization started in March 2011, nearly 4.5 years ago which is a long time ago in anyone's book! Fact - according to PEB itself no less.

Notice how every time something is brought up as a reason or excuse to justify why PEB has not delivered, PEB itself contradicts the reason or excuse.

If the ABs play like PEB plays, I think the NZ public will be demanding the sacking of the whole coaching staff!

[Carpenterjoe]

That feels better, just used the ignore button for the first time.

[trader_jackson]

Unfortunately I cannot help some emotion creep into my posts on this thread, particularly in recent times (and I openly admit this)...

It is because some of the users on here simply do not seem to have given PEB much of a chance, and have completely discounted it before any meaningful results (good or bad) have even been provided from the all important user programmes, and eventually the sales that may or may not occur - this being the most crucial "result". Not one of the substantial user programmes have yet to be concluded (and therefore sales cannot be evaluated), so to say PEB have "failed" and "not delivered" (from a sales point of view) is rubbish, once again not giving management a chance to prove their sales skills, just like initially, some years back, nobody gave them a chance to prove the science of their product (again writing PEB off) until many medical journals/doctors etc begun to say "hey this actually works"... now everyone on here has gone from "PEB's product doesn't work" to "PEB's product is great", will the same happen with regards to commercialisation/sales? That is yet to be seen and cannot be judged right now...(I have suggested waiting at least 2 years, while watching the announcements as they come, until "judgement day")...anyone judging managements progress in terms of sales now is "jumping the gun" as I have said several times (in several different ways)

I agree that there will need to be some updates between now and 2 years time (I never meant for there to be no update during this period), but to start judging if PEB has been a commercial success (or not) now is extremely premature.

(also, Franko, I wasn't sure on how long PEB have been commercial.. and merely referencing anther post, and I believe you if it is 2011... I would call 45 years a long time, but I wouldn't call 4.5 years a long time "in anyones book")

... I do very much enjoy this discussion and look forward to hearing the several reasons why I SHOULD start judging if PEB has been a commercial success or not (other than the "additional" capital raising "technicality")

[Carpenterjoe]

For those that care,

MDX HY is due out 20/Aug. Might be 21/aug NZ time.

[skid]

Unfortunately I cannot help some emotion creep into my posts on this thread, particularly in recent times (and I openly admit this)...

It is because some of the users on here simply do not seem to have given PEB much of a chance, and have completely discounted it before any meaningful results (good or bad) have even been provided from the all important user programmes, and eventually the sales that may or may not occur - this being the most crucial "result". Not one of the substantial user programmes have yet to be concluded (and therefore sales cannot be evaluated), so to say PEB have "failed" and "not delivered" (from a sales point of view) is rubbish, once again not giving management a chance to prove their sales skills, just like initially, some years back, nobody gave them a chance to prove the science of their product (again writing PEB off) until many medical journals/doctors etc begun to say "hey this actually works"... now everyone on here has gone from "PEB's product doesn't work" to "PEB's product is great", will the same happen with regards to commercialisation/sales? That is yet to be seen and cannot be judged right now...(I have suggested waiting at least 2 years, while watching the announcements as they come, until "judgement day")...anyone judging managements progress in terms of sales now is "jumping the gun" as I have said several times (in several different ways)

I agree that there will need to be some updates between now and 2 years time (I never meant for there to be no update during this period), but to start judging if PEB has been a commercial success (or not) now is extremely premature.

(also, Franko, I wasn't sure on how long PEB have been commercial.. and merely referencing anther post, and I believe you if it is 2011... I would call 45 years a long time, but I wouldn't call 4.5 years a long time "in anyones book")

... I do very much enjoy this discussion and look forward to hearing the several reasons why I SHOULD start judging if PEB has been a commercial success or not (other than the "additional" capital raising "technicality")

Oh ,I get what your saying...save your money until 2+ years and then it might be a good investment and maybe buy then..

[trader_jackson]

You could say that skid... I mean I don't think its going to get cheaper, but yes for the next say 2 years you could 'hold off' (I expect it will still increase faster than the average nzx 50 stock over those 2 years, but if you need more "convincing" then yes, miss out on some good initial gains, "save" your money for 2 years, then become part of a half a billion dollar company)

[couta1]

I'm making this my last post on this thread for now, given where things are up to, everything has been absolutely thrashed to death and things have just turned into a war of words between holders/believers versus non holders/non believers/ stirrers to put it polietly. I'm quite happy to wait patiently to see where things get to besides I've got real world patients to treat who have problems I can make a difference to, so couta over and out.

[Balance]

Sellers building up again.

Biotech and biomedical getting sold off in the States.

Going to be interesting to see how long underwriters/institutions keep buying. They can only do so for so long with no overseas institutional interest to come behind them.

[trader_jackson]

But Franko the price didn't finish lower today and buy orders now outweigh sell orders 2.5:1 (up from yesterday with more buy orders and less sell orders)?

Small volume probably indicates retail buying/selling, surprised it didn't drop as overseas it was very weak, but then again the market (or the 'big' holders at least) is probably just doing the logical thing: giving management the time it needs to deliver.

(Although a few more retail "panic/short signed sells" over the coming months wouldn't surprise me

[skid]

Your ''panic /short sighted sells'' only becomes fact if the company rebounds and becomes successful.
If it continues on this path it then becomes''exiting the stock and preventing further losses'' as either one of these scenarios can happen, it is not logical to simply assume one of these scenarios will happen--that is not an objective post.

[skid]

Hey TJ,
Get the lights on the way out will you.
Cheers, mate
See you in two years
Miner

Just thought you'd check back in to say that? (now you wouldnt be telling fibs now would you?) :):)

Guess this is the start of the 2 year drought on the PEB thread--no more posts (tui billboard) :)

[jonu]

So the thread is now OPEN again with it would appear all Friday's posts removed along with Vince's "Thread closed for the interim" and cryptic comments of "more to come" and the merging of Franko and Balance.

The thot plickens.....or not


BTW the NTL thread has reappeared as well with a similar lack of explanation

[Crackity]

So the thread is now OPEN again with it would appear all Friday's posts removed along with Vince's "Thread closed for the interim" and cryptic comments of "more to come" and the merging of Franko and Balance.

The thot plickens.....or not


BTW the NTL thread has reappeared as well with a similar lack of explanation


now known as Banco?

[jonu]

The hard case thing is, his quoted comments still shine in the name of Franko. Why it was tolerated I don't know. Vince promised more to come, oh the tease. Maybe Vince is Balance/Franko. It's as good a guess as any I reckon.

[Xerof]

He clearly has his QC, denis, on standby

I see Carpenter Joe copped a ban. What did he do........make a sensible post?

[skid]

The hard case thing is, his quoted comments still shine in the name of Franko. Why it was tolerated I don't know. Vince promised more to come, oh the tease. Maybe Vince is Balance/Franko. It's as good a guess as any I reckon.

Well,who ever he is ,he has given his own theory on how PEB has got to this point (sitting just above 60c) Does anyone have their own theory to query this? Things take time does not really explain the major fall over the weeks /months

Must say ,it held up pretty well Friday ,with all the carnage(small caps seemed to fare better) wonder how tomorrow will go?

[jonu]

Well,who ever he is ,he has given his own theory on how PEB has got to this point (sitting just above 60c) Does anyone have their own theory to query this? Things take time does not really explain the major fall over the weeks /months

Must say ,it held up pretty well Friday ,with all the carnage(small caps seemed to fare better) wonder how tomorrow will go?

Hard to know isn't it? Could take a spanking if the US is anything to go by. Certainly wouldn't expect a lift as it can hardly be seen as a safe haven.

[Crackity]

Must say ,it held up pretty well Friday ,with all the carnage(small caps seemed to fare better) wonder how tomorrow will go?


Dow down 3% after Nz closed - hard to see a positive opening tomorrow morning but stranger things have happened ( just not often....)

[trader_jackson]

I would not be surprised to see 2-3c down tomorrow, especially considering last week it actually went up 7% (up from a finish of 57c on Friday the week before last).

We have unfortunately lost some good posters as a result of several people's completely unfounded "pot shots", I was hoping the thread would be silenced for longer, but clearly this is not the case (oh well).

I will no longer be posting as much, no need... PEB's going to take time to get things sorted (yes, more than 2-3 years that it has already had)... I'll keep reading the thread, and watching PEB's carefully, I think PEB has a good couple of years ahead, and I look forward, as I have said so many times before, to seeing PEB in about 2 years time... have a good evening

[NT001]

We have unfortunately lost some good posters as a result of several people's completely unfounded "pot shots", I was hoping the thread would be silenced for longer, but clearly this is not the case (oh well).

I will no longer be posting as much, no need...

TJ's sentiments precisely reflect my own. I was going to post a response fully supporting couta1's decision to withdraw from the thread, and then bingo, Vince shut it down. I intend from now on to contribute rarely if at all - the thread is much the worse for the loss of posters like MAC and Hancocks who were willing to contribute their considerable knowledge but got nothing but negativity in response from certain quarters. What is it that makes the PEB thread so full of personal asnimosity and unpleasantness? It should be a forum for exchanging views in a mutually constructive fashion, instead of which it has become just a vehicle for negativity, oneupmanship and repetitive and boring defamation. I'm not saying no criticism should be levelled against the company, but the way it's being done is simply tiresome and unconstructive.

[skid]

Hancocks got heaps of positivity for his knowledge of the science(and most of those with concerns also support the science behind the product) Mac contributed as well but had a weakness of making unsubstantiated assumptions,maybe from just being ultra keen on the product and management.
I think to be completely fair you would have to admit that generally those with concerns have criticized the company(mostly the management) and those on the other side have mostly criticized those posters.
for those that want to give it 2 years--fair enough-take a break-but dont you agree that we should be seeing some positive signs in the meantime?

Looks like fundamentals might be out the window for the moment with the wider market--(the framework this,and all companies operate in is going a bit haywire atm(but that could change in the blink of an eye)--or not----but after,we'll see how it goes.---but if there arent some concrete reasons for optimism-you can bet people are going to talk about it--and if there are ,the same goes.

[RTM]

Nicely put NT. Completely agree. We should all think about these words when we post on any thread.
Cheers
RTM.


TJ's sentiments precisely reflect my own. I was going to post a response fully supporting couta1's decision to withdraw from the thread, and then bingo, Vince shut it down. I intend from now on to contribute rarely if at all - the thread is much the worse for the loss of posters like MAC and Hancocks who were willing to contribute their considerable knowledge but got nothing but negativity in response from certain quarters. What is it that makes the PEB thread so full of personal asnimosity and unpleasantness? It should be a forum for exchanging views in a mutually constructive fashion, instead of which it has become just a vehicle for negativity, oneupmanship and repetitive and boring defamation. I'm not saying no criticism should be levelled against the company, but the way it's being done is simply tiresome and unconstructive.

[Joshuatree]

Hancocks got heaps of positivity for his knowledge of the science(and most of those with concerns also support the science behind the product) Mac contributed as well but had a weakness of making unsubstantiated assumptions,maybe from just being ultra keen on the product and management.
I think to be completely fair you would have to admit that generally those with concerns have criticized the company(mostly the management) and those on the other side have mostly criticized those posters.
for those that want to give it 2 years--fair enough-take a break-but dont you agree that we should be seeing some positive signs in the meantime?

Thats an accurate view ; thanks skid for your views on this thread.:t_up:. Critics can honestly review what pushes their buttons and learn from it.

[skid]

Skid - don't underestimate your role in the demise of this thread. Your extremely repetitive posts have caused the overall post quality to drop rapidly. Many of us with information to share have given up because every second post was you asking the same thing OVER AND OVER AND OVER again. It really is unhelpful, and I hope that my retirement is more fulfilling than yours appears to be.

Noah fence (as miner, would say)

No problem---Didnt expect all to agree-(your decision, whether you retire with the others)(I fully understand how frustration can creep in on the back of a falling share price) Im sure most will be back if theres some good news-Do you have any new info on PEB?

Meanwhile I think PEB is doing relatively well so far today,considering..(world markets)

[skid]

Skid - don't underestimate your role in the demise of this thread. Your extremely repetitive posts have caused the overall post quality to drop rapidly. Many of us with information to share have given up because every second post was you asking the same thing OVER AND OVER AND OVER again. It really is unhelpful, and I hope that my retirement is more fulfilling than yours appears to be.

Noah fence (as miner, would say)

OH--You mean THAT retirement:) Well,i do get a bit of time now and then as I travel through Southeast Asia to post--Come on over -It IS fullfilling!

[Tsuba]

OH--You mean THAT retirement:) Well,i do get a bit of time now and then as I travel through Southeast Asia to post--Come on over -It IS fullfilling!

As a side not Skid. Glad you're enjoying your road trip. Always nice to see other cultures. I recommend Japan incase you havn't been. Seen any special wildlife like my Twink by any chance ? ;)

[skid]

As a side not Skid. Glad you're enjoying your road trip. Always nice to see other cultures. I recommend Japan incase you havn't been. Seen any special wildlife like my Twink by any chance ? ;)

Spent a year there many years ago(Kyoto)but hav'nt been back since--alot more on the road than the old days though--In case I get back ,you will have to bring me up to scratch on twinks:)--(Ive got a funny feeling Im missing something):):)

[skid]

For those of you have not already left I heartily recommend you have a look at post #64 on the ''black Market' thread---For those who dont go back that far--Phaedrus' really had his head screwed on.

[Joshuatree]

Cant find it ;can you refresh it skid?

[skid]

Its on page 5 (post 64) of Black Monday thread--(sorry ,I never figured out how to copy a post from one thread and post it on another) link still works for me when I tried

Disc--Its not to be taken personally but to learn from----Some of us have been through this before(if it continues) but of course ,alot hav'nt.

[skid]

Thanx W69--your obviously better at computers than me!

[winner69]

Thanx W69--your obviously better at computers than me!

That fooled you eh when the post disappeared .... this may be better


I heartily recommend everyone read the first post from this thread - http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8469-Buying-in-a-Downtrend

Followed by http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5794-When-to-re-enter-the-market&highlight=phaedrus

[winner69]

Technically, Tricha, you would have to be classed as a slow learner! You make a habit of buying downtrending stocks and pay a very high price for your folly. Here is an example of the actions of people (not just you) that had "done their homework" and bought regardless of the fact that the stock in question was in a clear downtrend. We can all learn a lot from these ill-advised comments and actions.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/adyavdn.gif

The posters here were so sure that they had assessed the fundamentals of this stock accurately that they were unwilling, indeed unable to accept that they had got it wrong. Some even bragged that they never used stop-losses! Month after month, their optimistic prognostications were crushed as the inexorable downtrend continued. They were in a hole but did they stop digging? No, they dug deeper, buying more and more, averaging down as the shareprice progressively collapsed. Throwing good money after bad. See how the posters influenced each other with their comments - threads like this become support groups for those that have all made the same mistake. The effects of "group think" are all too evident as they lead each other down the garden path.

These "toxic" threads share many similarities and are quite easily identified. Here are a few pointers :-
Watch for a preponderance of overly loyal extremely positive contributions.
Any negative posters are "run off the thread".
When negative posters are accused of "downramping" you can be sure that all objectivity has been lost.
Look out for multitudinous "cut and paste" entries of scarcely relevant articles from the net.
Beware of threads where anyone posting a negative comment is personally attacked.
Dissenting views should be encouraged, not rubbished. We learn nothing from those that agree with us.
Watch for comments on "ignorant" selling by institutions, techies etc - by people that think they know better.

Typical key phrases :-
I hope the price doesn't rise too much - I'm still buying.
This stock is worth $xxx
If it drops any more, I'm backing up the truck.
I can't believe that the market has got this one so wrong.
Have you noticed all those suspicious trades just at the close?
I'm buying $1 for 50 cents.
Why are you posting here if you don't hold this stock?
Oh goody - the price has dropped. I can now buy more!
The market is being manipulated by insiders.

There are very important lessons to be learnt from disasters like this. In my opinion, the more obvious ones are :-
(1) Don't buy stocks that are in a downtrend.
(2) Don't buy without first setting a point at which you will accept that you have made a mistake.
(3) When/if this point is hit, SELL. Immediately. You can always buy back when/if the trend reverses.
(4) Never add to a losing position. Don't average down. EVER.
(5) Be very careful not to get caught up in other peoples enthusiasm for a particular stock.
(6) Meticulous calculations of a stocks "worth" are meaningless if the market disagrees with you.
(7) Remenber, if your opinion is at variance with market sentiment, YOU are wrong, not the market!

The post skid was referring too

[winner69]

and the other post


Until the market as a whole starts showing a little strength, it may well be best to be out of it altogether. Here is a chart of the NZSX50 Index, with 10 assorted technical indicators - how these are used is a very individual decision. Gung-ho players would leap back into the market just as soon as any one of these indicators indicated a change of sentiment. Conservative, cautious investors would wait for all 10 to be triggered before commiting any funds. I favour an incremental approach, investing 10% of my capital as each indicator is triggered. These signals are simply permission to invest - you don't have to act if you can't find anything you want to buy!

Should you be unable to resist some of the "bargains" out there, just remember that buying while the market is falling is more risky than when it is rising, so any "premature" entries should be very closely monitored using short-term indicators and tight stops.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZSXbuy315.gif

[winner69]

Hope that what you referring to skid

[Baa_Baa]

If there was a respect rating above 'he who posts the most' (guru or is it legend?), it would be called "Phaedrus". Not only was he brilliant, concise and enlightened, he also helped me understand and apply the value of TA.

Respect.
BAA

[Joshuatree]

Cant find it ;can you refresh it skid?

[Tsuba]

Spent a year there many years ago(Kyoto)but hav'nt been back since--alot more on the road than the old days though--In case I get back ,you will have to bring me up to scratch on twinks:)--(Ive got a funny feeling Im missing something):):)

Kyoto is nice. I spent three months in Osaka.

Twink the Guinea Fowl Skid. Seen any in your travels through the countryside.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G-71e8lg64

[skid]

Ill keep my eyes open--Hell they've got chickens here in Laos that look like that! Not much skin on dem bones.

[skid]

With all that Ive questioned about PEB ,I think its fair to say that this drop has nothing to do with the company(other than being vulnerable atm)
whether one should be in the share Market at all is fodder for another thread.

[twotic]

So when did "Franko" officially become "Balance"??

[Balance]

Market capitalization now looks like heading down below $200m soon.

For the believers who thought the recent rights issue was fantastic, should be another great 'buying' opportunity soon when PEB gets kicked out of NZX50?

Could be a nasty drop coming up though as underwriters are full to the gunnels so who are going to absorb any index selling.

Maybe the directors?

[pak]

Now the sp is firmly below the 60c mark it looks like the down trend is in acceleration mode. Still don't think the directors will step in to support it unless they are on the verge of a major announcement. Sub 50 in my mind is probably not too far away.

[kiwidollabill]

Unless they post some stellar sales numbers, how long before they burn through their cash?

[Balance]

Now the sp is firmly below the 60c mark it looks like the down trend is in acceleration mode. Still don't think the directors will step in to support it unless they are on the verge of a major announcement. Sub 50 in my mind is probably not too far away.

Your prediction is coming true fast?

Sp down today :

- another 2 cents back to Dec 2012 level,

- down 40% YTD

- and market cap now below $200m.

Exit from NZX50 will definitely drive the sp below 50c and it is clear there are no natural buyers out there besides the tapped out underwriters and sub-underwriters.

Wondering if there are actually some negative developments out there that the institutional market knows?

[nextbigthing]

Balance, such a negative way to view it all. $100m revenue is far more impressive for a $200m mcap company than a $500m mcap company. So the numbers are actually improving. :p

[Balance]

Balance, such a negative way to view it all. $100m revenue is far more impressive for a $200m mcap company than a $500m mcap company. So the numbers are actually improving. :p

Indeed!

Buying support depth has all but disappeared so probably be 40c soon.

Then the $150m market cap company will make the 'forever tomorrow' $100m revenue look even more impressive!

Wondering if directors are getting ready to buy, or are they thanking their lucky stars they did not put money in the 61 cents capital raising?

Underwriters are sucking on 15% loss in less than 2 months - worse performing rights issue of a NZX50 company in a while.

[Balance]

BTW, I notice in the latest shareholders' list that Hancocks did not participate in the rights issue either - same camp as the directors.

Did he know something?

[pak]

Yes, originally I was implying/guessing it may happen in a week or two's time. Now with world markets again looking shakey a speculative stock like this might take a hit, especially as depth is getting thin now and with a stronger down trend setting in. It could be a rush to grab those few willing to buy on the other side. That prediction could happen a lot sooner.

[trader_jackson]

Hancocks increases his holding from 2014 to 2015 by about 100k shares according to annual reports, so one may argue he did take part, but not to the full extent (I mean not everyone has 100's of thousands lying around to through into 1 company)

Could be a wild ride for PEB, could not be. But, really it doesn't matter what happens today, or tomorrow, rather where the share price is in 2 years

[couta1]

I have asked the Mod's to consider pulling this thread at least for a few months as genuine holders have given up posting and when a running commentary on every price drop is all that makes up a thread then its basically becomes pointless as everyone can view that for themselves anyway. If others feel the same I would encourage them to also pm the Mod's.

[QOH]

I have asked the Mod's to consider pulling this thread at least for a few months as genuine holders have given up posting and when a running commentary on every price drop is all that makes up a thread then its basically becomes pointless as everyone can view that for themselves anyway. If others feel the same I would encourage them to also pm the Mod's.
Why would you want a thread pulled just because you don't like it, we are all free to scroll past any that don't interest us. Personally im grateful for the postings of the last few weeks, I was too emotionally attached to my PEB shares, finally got out last week at 58 cents.

[warthog]

I have asked the Mod's to consider pulling this thread at least for a few months as genuine holders have given up posting and when a running commentary on every price drop is all that makes up a thread then its basically becomes pointless as everyone can view that for themselves anyway. If others feel the same I would encourage them to also pm the Mod's.

If you don't want to discuss it, then don't bother with the thread Couta!

The hog encourages everyone to leave this thread as it is.

By the way Couta, are you in PEB or out? The hog wants to know so the opposite position can be considered. :t_up:

[blobbles]

I have asked the Mod's to consider pulling this thread at least for a few months as genuine holders have given up posting and when a running commentary on every price drop is all that makes up a thread then its basically becomes pointless as everyone can view that for themselves anyway. If others feel the same I would encourage them to also pm the Mod's.

How absolutely ridiculous. This is what governments start doing when they start to under perform - censure freedom of speech in the hope that people won't don't know what is happening. Instill only "loyal" media so they can control the message.

Everyone is free to look, comment and ignore couta. Trying to control what is posted is silly. It is also silly for "genuine holders" to have run away. It reeks of them being FAR too emotionally involved in their investments, so much so that they didn't like being told the truth. After being told what has happened, they quit in obvious frustration - I bet you a thousand PEB shares that if the SP had stayed at ~$1.50, those people would not have left. They left because they were being told what was happening and had it confirmed by paper losses on their shares.

Someone who wasn't emotionally invested would have sold at least half of their shares @~$1.65 when the insiders sold out. They would have put a stop loss in at ~$1.00 and bailed when it looked like sales weren't meeting expectations. Instead, they held on, hoping (dreaming?) that the company would sell more. They didn't, the SP dropped, they suffered more paper losses and looked at what they perceived as down ramping on this thread (which in actual fact was just weather forecasting). They left in frustration at themselves, more than anything else. They realised they had lost control of the message on this thread by what was happening in reality. They also falsely believed that what was posted here had a huge impact on the SP.

This company is underperforming. The SP is being punished for it. They have had 2 years to make inroads and have done quite a bit, but aren't up to where everyone (including themselves) thought they would be. That happens in business sometimes. If you still believe, hold the shares, post more relevant info as you find it. If you don't like people giving weather forecasts, block those that you don't want to see.

In short - get over it. Attempting to control the message isn't going to help. A whole bunch of us told people where the SP was likely to end up in the medium term after the last capital raising and surprise surprise, that's where it has sunk to. Let freedom of speech rein.

[couta1]

Everyone is entitled to their say blobbles and I'm just putting it out openly and honestly what I had done as well as speaking on behalf on many who have sent me pm's who feel the same way who may not want to comment openly, of course people can ignore my post but in my opinion this thread is currently a waste of space and those currently dominating it have very little understanding on how the wheels and cogs of medical/Biotech startups turn but of course they have no desire to truely find out. Anyway you won't get anymore posts from me on this thread, I've said my piece now, cheers

[twotic]

I generally agree with everything you are saying blobbles but the one thing that has happened on this thread which has been a real shame is the childish "I told you so", "neh neh neh neh neh" type tone that some (bearish PEB) posters have used. I think to some extent it is understandable that those that hold the stock have gotten a bit emotional in response. However those that don't own it, and supposedly post out of the kindness of their hearts to try warn unsuspecting potential buyers or help current holders, post which such a childish & goading tone that the irony is, quite often all they do is piss holders off and their message gets lost completely. I get annoyed reading it and I don't even own the stock....

I doubt it will be a lesson learnt by anyone, but you never know.

[blobbles]

Everyone is entitled to their say blobbles and I'm just putting it out openly and honestly what I had done as well as speaking on behalf on many who have sent me pm's who feel the same way who may not want to comment openly, of course people can ignore my post but in my opinion this thread is currently a waste of space and those currently dominating it have very little understanding on how the wheels and cogs of medical/Biotech startups turn but of course they have no desire to truely find out. Anyway you won't get anymore posts from me on this thread, I've said my piece now, cheers

You can say whatever you want. As long as you don't try to kill the ability for everyone to say whatever they want.

Restricting freedom of expression is a dark and silly path to go down. I suggest that belittling others who currently dominate this thread is poor form. It is they who have predicted with almost uncanny ability where the SP has gone in the short term. Calling them ignorant of how biotech firms work is a little rich, I bet you don't know them all. And if you were to examine with an open mind why all the others are now not posting, I bet you will find their true motivations for doing so reeking of emotional attachment.

I actually lived in China for a number of years KW - my wife was contacted by police once for posting something on an internet forum (following the Kunming train station attacks). It was suggested to her (in no uncertain terms) that she remove said posts or be bought in for "questioning" for disrupting "public harmony". This is why I am particularly proud of our freedom of speech and do not wish for it to be limited - I have direct experience of oppression from a heavy hand, this not being the only case and probably the least severe. I also lived in Malaysia for a while and if you can see what is happening there now (and has been occurring over the past 20 years), you can see where limiting freedom of expression gets you.

[NZSilver]

PEB should be renamed PLEB, honestly I couldn't care less about what people post - hype/negative. But management - the fed investors so much hype, which to be honest look to be turning into lies as they get closer day by day to not meeting targets. I once held a significant amount of PEB, paper profit it was once one of my best stocks, now I've sold the last parcel of my PLEB after I heard about the AGM, luckily I flicked a few just above $1. I've learnt some great lessons while I held this stock. Will be interesting to see how it pans out but far to much talk and not much actions with these guys for me to be invested at the moment.

[klid]

Relax. I came here as interested in buying again but not a lot of help...

worth it at these levels or a dead duck?

[skid]

this is difficult times for many-Of course many shares are taking a beating today,not just PEB.
This more than likely has more to do with the market in general than one share in particular.
But the fact remains that higher risk,growth shares are going to be more vulnerable.--It may be time to step back and look at the whole market-the world situation and make a decision one way or the other with that in mind.
Most seem to agree that PEB needs time--that means one can always exit and return when things have progressed (either the company or the markets) or of course ,ride it out.
Getting back to PEB itself,is there a danger now of being eaten by a larger company with more reserves(if the disruptive technology PEB has is attractive(they would of course do their homework to determine if that is true)
So ,all technology -management issues aside--the question now raises just how vulnerable they are to a takeover.
another issue raised (on another international site)is that alot of customer in times like this want to get their money out of their institution for many reasons-fear-bills-covering losses--which mean institutions need to sell some holdings--This could put further pressure on small companies(or perhaps already has)
On a brighter note -they are damn lucky they got their cap raising out of the way when they did---a month down the line and the issue would not just be time but survival.
No one knows how this will play out with the markets but it is looking far more likely this is not just another blip(it had to come eventually)---Once the market has reset itself it will be easier to have discussions on how PEB is doing--right now its time to think of the bigger picture IMO.

[nextbigthing]

Relax. I came here as interested in buying again but not a lot of help...

worth it at these levels or a dead duck?

Klid, the safest way to do it would be to keep your money in the bank and wait, IF they announce REAL news (like big sales or being written into clinical pathways) THEN jump on board. Sure you'll probably pay twice the current price but IF this were to happen, even that price would be peanuts in comparison to where it would go. Fingers crossed this happens, however at the moment, unfortunately, it's not looking good.

PS) Plus Klid, look at the downtrend it's in. Consult KW or Hoop prior to buying in a trend for a stern talking to :)

[nextbigthing]

Something I find interesting from the annual report, they have a scientific advisory board and a clinical advisory board. Why not a specialist medical marketing advisory board? This is the stage they're stuck on, why not tone down the other two boards for a while and pump that money into specialist medical product marketers/lobbyists?

[twotic]

Something I find interesting from the annual report, they have a scientific advisory board and a clinical advisory board. Why not a specialist medical marketing advisory board? This is the stage they're stuck on, why not tone down the other two boards for a while and pump that money into specialist medical product marketers/lobbyists?

Yeah I am concerned about the resources they are putting into marketing too. At the AGM I perceived a bit of a disconnect between what was going on in NZ (i.e most of the blokes sitting at the front table) vs the USA (Jackie Walker) - just my opinion and intuition based on perhaps a few throw away comments & body language etc, so may well be wrong there though.

That being said, if the product is not good enough to sell then it probably doesn't make a great deal of difference how much marketing resources are allocated. To be honest one of the main reasons I sold many of my shares was because I became unconvinced their product was good enough. I am referring to frontline (impartial) NZ based researchers/urologists and the AHRQ.

I held some shares for a while hoping for what I considered was the only short term prospect the company had to boost the SP (VA & CMS coverage) but finally bit the bullet on that one too. As with the above I am not convinced that will happen any time soon either.

I hope I am wrong on both accounts for those that continue to hold, but I still pose the same question: What could realistically happen in the next 6 months to put a halt to the quite long term downward trend the SP is on? There surely has to be some exit strategy on this stock given the major risks involved.

[blobbles]

this is difficult times for many-Of course many shares are taking a beating today,not just PEB.
This more than likely has more to do with the market in general than one share in particular.
But the fact remains that higher risk,growth shares are going to be more vulnerable.--It may be time to step back and look at the whole market-the world situation and make a decision one way or the other with that in mind.
Most seem to agree that PEB needs time--that means one can always exit and return when things have progressed (either the company or the markets) or of course ,ride it out.
Getting back to PEB itself,is there a danger now of being eaten by a larger company with more reserves(if the disruptive technology PEB has is attractive(they would of course do their homework to determine if that is true)
So ,all technology -management issues aside--the question now raises just how vulnerable they are to a takeover.
another issue raised (on another international site)is that alot of customer in times like this want to get their money out of their institution for many reasons-fear-bills-covering losses--which mean institutions need to sell some holdings--This could put further pressure on small companies(or perhaps already has)
On a brighter note -they are damn lucky they got their cap raising out of the way when they did---a month down the line and the issue would not just be time but survival.
No one knows how this will play out with the markets but it is looking far more likely this is not just another blip(it had to come eventually)---Once the market has reset itself it will be easier to have discussions on how PEB is doing--right now its time to think of the bigger picture IMO.

I think skid has got it here - PEB has a large chance of being taken out by a large pharmaceutical company. Decent IP backed with some good people and potential for sales - if they get some decent runs on the board soon I don't see why a big pharma company wouldn't spend some dosh and buy it. Although the same thing happened to Alere in 2007 (this is from memory? Makers of NMP22) who were paid ~$300m USD in cash and shares. If you were looking at similar prices in todays terms that would value PEB shares ~$1.25 NZD. So not bad buying at these levels if you are thinking about a takeover.

Agree with twotic - people aren't exactly inspired by their annual meetings. And also agree that I wouldn't be in until something big occurs (sales/VA/CMS). Way too risky based on current performance.

[warthog]

You can say whatever you want. As long as you don't try to kill the ability for everyone to say whatever they want.

Restricting freedom of expression is a dark and silly path to go down. I suggest that belittling others who currently dominate this thread is poor form. It is they who have predicted with almost uncanny ability where the SP has gone in the short term. Calling them ignorant of how biotech firms work is a little rich, I bet you don't know them all. And if you were to examine with an open mind why all the others are now not posting, I bet you will find their true motivations for doing so reeking of emotional attachment.

I actually lived in China for a number of years KW - my wife was contacted by police once for posting something on an internet forum (following the Kunming train station attacks). It was suggested to her (in no uncertain terms) that she remove said posts or be bought in for "questioning" for disrupting "public harmony". This is why I am particularly proud of our freedom of speech and do not wish for it to be limited - I have direct experience of oppression from a heavy hand, this not being the only case and probably the least severe. I also lived in Malaysia for a while and if you can see what is happening there now (and has been occurring over the past 20 years), you can see where limiting freedom of expression gets you.

Well said blobbles.

Couta the hog suggests you start a forum where you can be very, very restrictive indeed.

It will be a cosy, very tightly-knit community where everybody knows the limits.

It is likely also to be very exclusive…

[Bobcat.]

I'm waiting until about a week after PEB is removed from the NZX50 before looking again to buy, and if directors then start to load up then all the more attractive it will become. For now, it's off my radar.

Better opportunities elsewhere IMO.

BC

[psychic]

Yeah I am concerned about the resources they are putting into marketing too. At the AGM I perceived a bit of a disconnect between what was going on in NZ (i.e most of the blokes sitting at the front table) vs the USA (Jackie Walker) - just my opinion and intuition based on perhaps a few throw away comments & body language etc, so may well be wrong there though.

That being said, if the product is not good enough to sell then it probably doesn't make a great deal of difference how much marketing resources are allocated. To be honest one of the main reasons I sold many of my shares was because I became unconvinced their product was good enough. I am referring to frontline (impartial) NZ based researchers/urologists and the AHRQ.

I held some shares for a while hoping for what I considered was the only short term prospect the company had to boost the SP (VA & CMS coverage) but finally bit the bullet on that one too. As with the above I am not convinced that will happen any time soon either.

I hope I am wrong on both accounts for those that continue to hold, but I still pose the same question: What could realistically happen in the next 6 months to put a halt to the quite long term downward trend the SP is on? There surely has to be some exit strategy on this stock given the major risks involved.
So c'mon now twotic. Share the love. What is the goss frontline NZ that gave you doubts on actual performance? I certainly would not ignore it and am genuinely interested.

Do you rate our health boards in adopting new technology? Did they or the Urologists you spoke to adopt UroVysion or even nmp22 for that matter?

In March this year the NZ National Health Committee issued this -

http://nhc.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/publications/haematuria-t2-a.pdf

It screams out for Triage - and they are clearly working towards it. But the wheels turn so slowly. Too slow for many here for sure.

You also mention AHRQ. Do you have any info that I have missed? To my knowledge there has only been a draft issued, the delayed final was to have been published first in the US Spring, then they told me by 31st August. I'm still waiting.

If anything the Draft damns the competition by concluding that Urinary biomarkers miss a substantial proportion of patients with bladder cancer. (Tell that to the market using UroVysion and NMP22.) It actually acknowledges that CxBladder Detect outperforms the other markers under review, but it's performance is not considered simply because the strength of evidence is comparatively low (data from one NZ study only)

It is a summary document only after all.

And the delays are intriguing. There is more evidence now, AND there is Triage. Triage, if included, might almost make the the whole thing redundant.

[kiwidollabill]

Do you rate our health boards in adopting new technology?

On an international level we are exceptionally good at embracing new technology for health diagnostics. The "Laboratory Developed Methods" provision in IANZ/ISO17025 mean new tests can be rapidly adopted (compared with the onerous task of FDA/user programs). Canterbury Health Laboratories have build an entire business in their specialty chemistry and molecular diagnostics units to develop novel methods, get them approved and sell the service to other DHBs.

[Bobcat.]

...which begs the question "Why has PEB not been able to persuade New Zealand DHBs to adopt (and pay for) their products and services?"

[psychic]

On an international level we are exceptionally good at embracing new technology for health diagnostics. The "Laboratory Developed Methods" provision in IANZ/ISO17025 mean new tests can be rapidly adopted (compared with the onerous task of FDA/user programs). CCDHB have build an entire business in their specialty chemistry and molecular diagnostics units to develop novel methods, get them approved and sell the service to other DHBs.

Wait - so you are saying that all PEB need do is have the lab certified? What about clinical utility and validity?

[kiwidollabill]

Wait - so you are saying that all PEB need do is have the lab certified? What about clinical utility and validity?

If you can show to IANZ that your test is valid (as judged by your peers) you can operate the test and sell it.

There are a number of DNA cancer tests already used in NZ which are not done in the US because they have yet to gain FDA clearance.

[psychic]

If you can show to IANZ that your test is valid (as judged by your peers) you can operate the test and sell it.

There are a number of DNA cancer tests already used in NZ which are not done in the US because they have yet to gain FDA clearance.
Sure you can sell it. PEB can and do sell tests. They have all the necessary accreditation.

But that does not mean NZ DHB's are early adopters eh? They won't pay for a UroVysion test, yet in the US it is part of Clinical practice. The NMP22 test has been selling for a decade...

[skid]

I think skid has got it here - PEB has a large chance of being taken out by a large pharmaceutical company. Decent IP backed with some good people and potential for sales - if they get some decent runs on the board soon I don't see why a big pharma company wouldn't spend some dosh and buy it. Although the same thing happened to Alere in 2007 (this is from memory? Makers of NMP22) who were paid ~$300m USD in cash and shares. If you were looking at similar prices in todays terms that would value PEB shares ~$1.25 NZD. So not bad buying at these levels if you are thinking about a takeover.

Agree with twotic - people aren't exactly inspired by their annual meetings. And also agree that I wouldn't be in until something big occurs (sales/VA/CMS). Way too risky based on current performance.

Im no expert -but if they are vulnerable, along with the state of the markets,would they be getting an offer as attractive as that?

Whether it was a great price-an ok price-or a slap in the face price--it would be one argument against being able to jump on board later---that would be it

[Vince]

Merged Denis with Noodles as they're the same person.

Vince

[couta1]

Merged Denis with Noodles as they're the same person.

Vince This whole forum is becoming a farce with posters taking on double identities, why would you do it unless you're got some sort of massive ego problem or a genuine mental disorder? The latter I have compassion toward as I see them regularly but the former are another kettle of fish.

[Xerof]

This whole forum is becoming a farce with posters taking on double identities, why would you do it unless you're got some sort of massive ego problem or a genuine mental disorder? double? Haha... How about multiple....my genuine concern over this behaviour, apart from being some sort of mental deficiency, is the insidious desire to influence the opinions and trading activities of others with 'consensus' views from seemingly different posters, when in fact it is a single view. Is there an agenda? I think so.....

if these people are found to work for instos, funds or brokers, I would imagine the FMA would be in boots and all.

[stoploss]

This whole forum is becoming a farce with posters taking on double identities, why would you do it unless you're got some sort of massive ego problem or a genuine mental disorder? The latter I have compassion toward as I see them regularly but the former are another kettle of fish.

Just as a question Vince how about a ban for a week for the remaining personality ? Might be best to put a stop to this sort of behaviour ??

[couta1]

double? Haha... How about multiple....my genuine concern over this behaviour, apart from being some sort of mental deficiency, is the insidious desire to influence the opinions and trading activities of others with 'consensus' views from seemingly different posters, when in fact it is a single view. Is there an agenda? I think so.....

if these people are found to work for instos, funds or brokers, I would imagine the FMA would be in boots and all. Yeah so how much credibility can you give to balance's posts on this thread when he had to use multiple names to get his message across? absolutely none IMO, I must say Noodles comes as a bit of a shock as I gave him a lot of kudos. Even Moosie didn't use more than one identity at once.

[Carpenterjoe]

I have asked the Mod's to consider pulling this thread at least for a few months as genuine holders have given up posting and when a running commentary on every price drop is all that makes up a thread then its basically becomes pointless as everyone can view that for themselves anyway. If others feel the same I would encourage them to also pm the Mod's.

Soooooo, Cellmid received its First royalty payment from sales $(68000), it was paid sometime within the last twelve months and I suppose that puts test either billed or carried out between 7555-68000 depending on the details of the agreement.

Hmmm from Cellmid's reporting point of view PEB have just completed their first full year of trading:p

Over and out Team.

[Absolute144]

Merged Denis with Noodles as they're the same person.

Vince


I'd like to know if Dennis /Noodles had consensus views, referenced each others statements or had opposing opinions (just for interests sake). But I guess its to late to read the differernt posts is it?

[skid]

Soooooo, Cellmid received its First royalty payment from sales $(68000), it was paid sometime within the last twelve months and I suppose that puts test either billed or carried out between 7555-68000 depending on the details of the agreement.

Hmmm from Cellmid's reporting point of view PEB have just completed their first full year of trading:p

Over and out Team.

as usual -it raises more questions than answers--dont suppose there is a translation code attached:confused:

[couta1]

This place has become pathetic. Just finished another 24 hour ban, presumably for trying to holder trader jackson to account. What a f*cking joke.

Have also requested a permanent account deletion.

Enjoy squabbling in the sandbox everyone. I'll be busy making money.

Cheers :) Shame to see you go NG, you were straight up and at least we knew who you were, all the best for your future.

[kiwidollabill]

Sure you can sell it. PEB can and do sell tests. They have all the necessary accreditation.

But that does not mean NZ DHB's are early adopters eh? They won't pay for a UroVysion test, yet in the US it is part of Clinical practice. The NMP22 test has been selling for a decade...

I do not know the decision making process around the NZ adoption (or lack thereof) of UroVysion/NMP22 however I have stated the structure which indeed allows NZ DHBs to be "early adopters" and can provide a number of examples where this is the case.

[trader_jackson]

Probably is to hold me (and others) to account... I'll say it again lets just wait 2-3 years, and then you can start firing pot shots again.

Those that are happy to make daily running cometary, well that's fine, enjoy. You won't get any constructive comments (all the experienced/senior people, some of which who have been to every PEB general meeting, have left), and it will become a form of personal attacks rather well informed "guesstimations"/information.

I will make the comment that what I am finding interesting at this moment is the number of retail investors (not institutions, volume is far to small) that are panicking with PEB shares, don't these people know its bad to sell on a down? Probably more experienced investors slowly snapping them up. But anyway, it doesn't really matter what happens in the next few days, rather what happens in 2-3 years time.

[couta1]

TJ I think NG is talking about holding you to account on Arvida not Peb.

[trader_jackson]

TJ I think NG is talking about holding you to account on Arvida not Peb.

Oh I see, maybe it was but I don't think it would have been because of that (really?), nothing harsh was exchanged (in my view). His views are his views, not like there was any swearing or personal attack.

[Bobcat.]

... don't these people know its bad to sell on a down? Probably more experienced investors slowly snapping them up. But anyway, it doesn't really matter what happens in the next few days, rather what happens in 2-3 years time.

Actually it's more timely, profitable and prudent to sell on the way down. Likewise, buying on the way up.

[nextbigthing]

TJ, maybe those 'panicked' investors are actually trying to get out of the downtrend while the shares still have some value.

[couta1]

Oh I see, maybe it was but I don't think it would have been because of that (really?), nothing harsh was exchanged (in my view). His views are his views, not like there was any swearing or personal attack.
NG is a current Peb holder(Lots of shares) not a knocker so why would he hold another supporter to account, he is however down on Arvida as you know and your understanding of its future amongst the retirement stocks.

[nextbigthing]

IMHO this business in Singapore is a sideshow, the real money is in the U.S.

Did anybody ask Jackie the really tough questions at the meeting? What's going on over there, why is it not being used widely and are they actually going to do about it (we have sales teams in place) is a weak answer.

[Carpenterjoe]

as usual -it raises more questions than answers--dont suppose there is a translation code attached:confused:

Sorry Skid, a little cryptic. CDY End of year was released on the 31st. I was a little late reading it.

When I was referring to number of tests, its in relation to CDY receiving a single digit dollar amount per test, so between $1 & $9. (I think).

Also found it interesting it was CDY first royalty payment from sales.

[blobbles]

I do not know the decision making process around the NZ adoption (or lack thereof) of UroVysion/NMP22 however I have stated the structure which indeed allows NZ DHBs to be "early adopters" and can provide a number of examples where this is the case.

Is it just me or are NZ DHB's particularly conservative? A couple of them have had CxBladder on offer (likely at heavily discounted rates) for a few years, they have run user programs and found it to be quite good. Yet they do not wish to continue?

Seems like the DHBs here are waiting for some international results before they think about implementation here. I mean its been what? 4 years since they began looking at CxBladder? What examples of early adoption do you have kiwidollabill?

[Xerof]

I'd like to know if Dennis /Noodles had consensus views, referenced each others statements or had opposing opinions (just for interests sake). But I guess its to late to read the differernt posts is it?
At the risk of more personal bans, I was actually referring to the balance/franco insidious consensus on this thread, but I'm sure there will be more 'merging' to come....'denis' had not yet made his way to PEB before being outed

[zs_cecil]

Soooooo, Cellmid received its First royalty payment from sales $(68000), it was paid sometime within the last twelve months and I suppose that puts test either billed or carried out between 7555-68000 depending on the details of the agreement.

Hmmm from Cellmid's reporting point of view PEB have just completed their first full year of trading:p

Over and out Team.



Hi Carpenterjoe, would you mind telling me how you come up the test number between 7555-68000 range based on the royalty payment $68000?
Sorry, I am not questioning you on this. I am just trying to find out the detail of the deal between pacificedge and cellmid made a few years ago.

[kiwidollabill]

Is it just me or are NZ DHB's particularly conservative? A couple of them have had CxBladder on offer (likely at heavily discounted rates) for a few years, they have run user programs and found it to be quite good. Yet they do not wish to continue?

Seems like the DHBs here are waiting for some international results before they think about implementation here. I mean its been what? 4 years since they began looking at CxBladder? What examples of early adoption do you have kiwidollabill?

KRAS and BRAF (http://molecular.roche.com/assays/Pages/cobas4800BRAFV600MutationTest.aspx http://molecular.roche.com/assays/Pages/cobasKRASMutationTest.aspx) both now CE-IVD (i.e. used in the US), these tests were run routinely in NZ labs a full 2 years before it was possible in the US

[kiwidollabill]

EGFR is another one, only CE-IVD in Europe, also been run in NZ labs for many years https://www.qiagen.com/nz/products/molecular-diagnostics/personalized-healthcare/egfr-pcr/detection-and-analysis/therascreen-egfr-rgq-pcr-kit?applicationflowStep={FFFCE013-7D5F-4E59-B2E3-CCBCFDBFACF3}&StepName=Detection-and-analysis&Page=2

[twotic]

Soooooo, Cellmid received its First royalty payment from sales $(68000), it was paid sometime within the last twelve months and I suppose that puts test either billed or carried out between 7555-68000 depending on the details of the agreement.

Hmmm from Cellmid's reporting point of view PEB have just completed their first full year of trading:p

Over and out Team.

Jeepers, that is quite a range you've identified so Im not sure how useful it is? Interested to know how you came up with it though.

[kiwidollabill]

And you want to look at some very disruptive technology? There is a BD/Bruker Biotyper https://www.bruker.com/products/mass-spectrometry-and-separations/maldi-biotyper/overview.html in every major microbiology lab in NZ. Delivered and used well before CE-IVD approval - this has been the first big change in the 'detection' part of the workflow in the last 30 years.

[twotic]

So c'mon now twotic. Share the love. What is the goss frontline NZ that gave you doubts on actual performance? I certainly would not ignore it and am genuinely interested.

Do you rate our health boards in adopting new technology? Did they or the Urologists you spoke to adopt UroVysion or even nmp22 for that matter?

In March this year the NZ National Health Committee issued this -

http://nhc.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/publications/haematuria-t2-a.pdf

It screams out for Triage - and they are clearly working towards it. But the wheels turn so slowly. Too slow for many here for sure.

You also mention AHRQ. Do you have any info that I have missed? To my knowledge there has only been a draft issued, the delayed final was to have been published first in the US Spring, then they told me by 31st August. I'm still waiting.

If anything the Draft damns the competition by concluding that Urinary biomarkers miss a substantial proportion of patients with bladder cancer. (Tell that to the market using UroVysion and NMP22.) It actually acknowledges that CxBladder Detect outperforms the other markers under review, but it's performance is not considered simply because the strength of evidence is comparatively low (data from one NZ study only)

It is a summary document only after all.

And the delays are intriguing. There is more evidence now, AND there is Triage. Triage, if included, might almost make the the whole thing redundant.

Gidday Psychic,

Perhaps nothing you don't already know from our past conversations. As you can appreciate I can't reveal names etc but I my information comes via researchers and urologists in NZ, and more recently (living down in Dunedin) people at Otago Uni.

Adoption of new technology? well it comes down to a combination of the funding that is available for new tests/treatments (which is usually zilch), potential cost savings, and evidence of accuracy/effectiveness of treatmnets/test etc. Paraphrasing the responses I have had: There is not enough funding to adopt CxBladder as a new test and not enough evidence to move out of line with international guidelines.

On the other hand I was told that some DHBs are introducing the test to triage microscopic haematuria referrals. These patients generally wait months to be seen because the hit rate is so low (<1%) so the logic is you can bring them in quicker and if they test positive. The issue there though is that there is no direct cost savings, and despite obvious potential gains in patient safety, cost savings is the key.

In terms of the AHRQ report, I guess it started to make me think I wasn't seeing the woods for the trees. I agree the evidence base appears to be growing showing CxBladder outperforms its peers, but the headline conclusion in the draft AHRQ report basically says there is not enough evidence to suggest biomarker tests are good enough to become part of the best practise clinical pathway. No-one paid much attention to that conclusion as I think people were a bit too focussed on how good CxBladder is vs its peers. BUT if as a group none of them are good enough IMO it doesn't really matter if CxBladder is the best of what is available. Someone said the AHRQ report had its funding cut, so I am not sure we see a final report. That being said I don't believe there is anything recent that would change their headline conclusion.

Regarding the NHC. I'm not surprised the wheels are turning so slowly. If you have ever visited or worked with them you will know why. They are severely underfunded/understaffed. I suspect when people hear "National Health Council" they think about quite a large organisation. Infact last I knew it was a team of about 6 people attempting to do a job which in my opinion should have about 50. They are good people there, but are kicking **** up a hill if you like when it comes do getting stuff done. I'm not sure how much influence they actually have as well.

[zs_cecil]

Jeepers, that is quite a range you've identified so Im not sure how useful it is? Interested to know how you came up with it though.

The number is interesting though I think despite no proof. Australia FY2015 ended at the end of Jun 2015. There might be some amounts of done tests that will be count as the income for PEB FY2016.

Let's assume 37,777 (medium value of the given range) tests have been carried out. Each test is cost $200 NZD. The total revenue of these tests will be $7,555,400.
The sales revenue in PEB FY2015 result, $1,899,665. This means $5,655,735 revenue will be booked in PEB FY 2016.

Just my optimistic guess. ;)

[twotic]

It's just that the upper end of you range is nearly 10 x the lower end. I guess my question then is how reliable is that range?

[twotic]

Psychic, I just re-read that NHC report. Yup I guess they are "screaming out" for biomarker tests, but does so with the caveat that the evidence base is still not good enough and "further analytical work is appropriate on the use of urinary biomarkertests in the diagnostic pathway for haematuria, examining their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.A particular focus should be on those tests that show high sensitivity ".

I guess the reality is that in many disciplines people are screaming out for better/cheaper/more effective products but until one is developed and proven I'm not sure it means much.

Just my opinion of course and with everything I have posted it is worth pointing out I am just an interested bystander with no experience of formal education in much of this subject matter, so grain of salt and all that :)

[zs_cecil]

It's just that the upper end of you range is nearly 10 x the lower end. I guess my question then is how reliable is that range?

Yeah, that's my question too. Does anyone remember if any previous announcement from PEB or Cellmid has the information of how the royalty fee is paid?

[twotic]

Yeah, that's my question too. Does anyone remember if any previous announcement from PEB or Cellmid has the information of how the royalty fee is paid?
Sorry got you confused with the original poster. Let's see if he/she can elaborate a bit.

[psychic]

Gidday Psychic,

Perhaps nothing you don't already know from our past conversations. As you can appreciate I can't reveal names etc but I my information comes via researchers and urologists in NZ, and more recently (living down in Dunedin) people at Otago Uni.

Adoption of new technology? well it comes down to a combination of the funding that is available for new tests/treatments (which is usually zilch), potential cost savings, and evidence of accuracy/effectiveness of treatmnets/test etc. Paraphrasing the responses I have had: There is not enough funding to adopt CxBladder as a new test and not enough evidence to move out of line with international guidelines.

On the other hand I was told that some DHBs are introducing the test to triage microscopic haematuria referrals. These patients generally wait months to be seen because the hit rate is so low (<1%) so the logic is you can bring them in quicker and if they test positive. The issue there though is that there is no direct cost savings, and despite obvious potential gains in patient safety, cost savings is the key.

In terms of the AHRQ report, I guess it started to make me think I wasn't seeing the woods for the trees. I agree the evidence base appears to be growing showing CxBladder outperforms its peers, but the headline conclusion in the draft AHRQ report basically says there is not enough evidence to suggest biomarker tests are good enough to become part of the best practise clinical pathway. No-one paid much attention to that conclusion as I think people were a bit too focussed on how good CxBladder is vs its peers. BUT if as a group none of them are good enough IMO it doesn't really matter if CxBladder is the best of what is available. Someone said the AHRQ report had its funding cut, so I am not sure we see a final report. That being said I don't believe there is anything recent that would change their headline conclusion.

Regarding the NHC. I'm not surprised the wheels are turning so slowly. If you have ever visited or worked with them you will know why. They are severely underfunded/understaffed. I suspect when people hear "National Health Council" they think about quite a large organisation. Infact last I knew it was a team of about 6 people attempting to do a job which in my opinion should have about 50. They are good people there, but are kicking **** up a hill if you like when it comes do getting stuff done. I'm not sure how much influence they actually have as well.


Psychic, I just re-read that NHC report. Yup I guess they are "screaming out" for biomarker tests, but does so with the caveat that the evidence base is still not good enough and "further analytical work is appropriate on the use of urinary biomarkertests in the diagnostic pathway for haematuria, examining their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.A particular focus should be on those tests that show high sensitivity ".

I guess the reality is that in many disciplines people are screaming out for better/cheaper/more effective products but until one is developed and proven I'm not sure it means much.

Just my opinion of course and with everything I have posted it is worth pointing out I am just an interested bystander with no experience of formal education in much of this subject matter, so grain of salt and all that :)

Cheers twotic.

Maybe it's the ol confirmation bias kicking in, BUT:

1. NHC Report. They use data from Detect - not Triage. They say in 10.3 "any alternative diagnostic tool to be implemented would need to be effective in ruling out bladder cancer. That is, the test would need to demonstrate a high negative predictive value" . So PEB give them just that, CxBladder Triage with NPV 98% and sensitivity 95%. Annnnndddd - nothing. It is exactly what they want, and the NHC's own figures support utility.

So frustrating!!!

AHRQ
Again - Triage not considered at all (predates launch and published study so fair enough) but my interpretation is that they don't even factor Detect into the conclusion because there is only the one study considered and so insufficient. But regardless - Detect outperforms the others, and despite the AHRQ poo pooing biomarkers generally, they are part of clinical practice in the US and a mighty significant earner.

PEB is only chasing down 10% of that market to get to their $100m , so not unrealistic.

[twotic]

Cheers twotic.

Maybe it's the ol confirmation bias kicking in, BUT:

1. NHC Report. They use data from Detect - not Triage. They say in 10.3 "any alternative diagnostic tool to be implemented would need to be effective in ruling out bladder cancer. That is, the test would need to demonstrate a high negative predictive value" . So PEB give them just that, CxBladder Triage with NPV 98% and sensitivity 95%. Annnnndddd - nothing. It is exactly what they want, and the NHC's own figures support utility.

So frustrating!!!

AHRQ
Again - Triage not considered at all (predates launch and published study so fair enough) but my interpretation is that they don't even factor Detect into the conclusion because there is only the one study considered and so insufficient. But regardless - Detect outperforms the others, and despite the AHRQ poo pooing biomarkers generally, they are part of clinical practice in the US and a mighty significant earner.

PEB is only chasing down 10% of that market to get to their $100m , so not unrealistic.

Quite possibly mate - I think that is often inevitable with a lot of people so I won't deny it. That being said, you know I had been concerned for some time before I sold my last parcel.

I must admit, I am often lumping all the different tests together when I'm talking about their prospects of being included in best practise clinical pathway. It takes quite a lot of work to recall the details of each test, NPVs, PPVs, sensitivity, specificity etc etc, then remember what test is what and where it slots into the clinical pathway. Hence my disclaimer about my interpretation of it all. You know more about it all that me now for sure. At the end of the day I just needed to make a call on my holdings and as I do with a lot of stocks I set a few markers in the sand and hold or sell depending on my interpretation of the results.

It would be good to get a consensus opinion from urologists both in NZ and the US as to the prospects of these tests being included in international guidelines for best practise. That would make it a heck of a lot easier for all of us.

Good luck mate. I do hope it works out!

[psychic]

Cheers mate - No , I meant the probable confirmation bias was mine - not yours. :)

The whole Healthcare process is a riddle to me. I mean you have the likes of AHRQ set up to advise other Departments in the US on these things, and blow me, CMS don't follow AHRQ recommendations. We have this NHC in NZ, reaching logical conclusions regarding patients presenting with Haematuria, studies backed up by our own DHB's, and they still drag their feet. (I bet they will jump on the US acceptance post KP trial...)

It is a slow moving train for sure. Gives holders the heebies and the stone throwers something easy to aim for.

Very much appreciate your keeping an ear to the ground as you drift about Otago. Cheers

[twotic]

Cheers mate - No , I meant the probable confirmation bias was mine - not yours. :)

The whole Healthcare process is a riddle to me. I mean you have the likes of AHRQ set up to advise other Departments in the US on these things, and blow me, CMS don't follow AHRQ recommendations. We have this NHC in NZ, reaching logical conclusions regarding patients presenting with Haematuria, studies backed up by our own DHB's, and they still drag their feet. (I bet they will jump on the US acceptance post KP trial...)

It is a slow moving train for sure. Gives holders the heebies and the stone throwers something easy to aim for.

Very much appreciate your keeping an ear to the ground as you drift about Otago. Cheers

As I might have mentioned to you before I have had quite a lot of dealings with the Ministry of Health, DHBs, and hospitals and I can promise you it is a riddle to most of them as well!

[Carpenterjoe]

Jeepers, that is quite a range you've identified so Im not sure how useful it is? Interested to know how you came up with it though.

Correct me if I'm wrong, CDY receive a single digit amount per test sold, last financial year they received a $68000 payment from PEB. The first royalty payment from sales.

$68000/$9 = 7555 tests reimbursed for
$68000/$1 = 68000 tests

Now it has to be closer to $10 than $1

Its not that useful as more interesting, because if you multiply out 7555 tests x $500 = 3.7 mil.

Or if you divide Peb last rev 1.7mil/7555 you get a test price $225

Or is my brain farting

[zs_cecil]

Correct me if I'm wrong, CDY receive a single digit amount per test sold, last financial year they received a $68000 payment from PEB. The first royalty payment from sales.

$68000/$9 = 7555 tests reimbursed for
$68000/$1 = 68000 tests

Now it has to be closer to $10 than $1

Its not that useful as more interesting, because if you multiply out 7555 tests x $500 = 3.7 mil.

Or if you divide Peb last rev 1.7mil/7555 you get a test price $225

Or is my brain farting

You might be right because the FY2015 presentation stated that its annualised lab throughput for FY15 is several thousands.

Let's see how the lab throughput increases in FY16-H1.

[twotic]

Correct me if I'm wrong, CDY receive a single digit amount per test sold, last financial year they received a $68000 payment from PEB. The first royalty payment from sales.

$68000/$9 = 7555 tests reimbursed for
$68000/$1 = 68000 tests

Now it has to be closer to $10 than $1

Its not that useful as more interesting, because if you multiply out 7555 tests x $500 = 3.7 mil.

Or if you divide Peb last rev 1.7mil/7555 you get a test price $225

Or is my brain farting

Yup you are right it does look interesting. Seems like something holders may want to follow up on because on the face of it the numbers/rhetoric don't seem to add up. Maybe there is something we are missing?? Perhaps time lags? paid tests vs unpaid tests? I'm not sure.

[Carpenterjoe]

Yup you are right it does look interesting. Seems like something holders may want to follow up on because on the face of it the numbers/rhetoric don't seem to add up. Maybe there is something we are missing?? Perhaps time lags? paid tests vs unpaid tests? I'm not sure.

Yeah, not having a concrete time period sucks.

What is considered a sale from Cdy perspective,

It is possible these figures show great growth or a cheaper sale price or total tests paid+unpaid.

Hopefully next years payment is a boomer.

Just on a side note, found this snippet on Inspire.

"I requested immunotherapy w/o even knowing what BCG was, nor anything else to do w/BC. 1 year out and just had a cysto + cytology (Atypical) + FISH + CT scan and happy to report ALL came up clear. So far so good. Awaiting results from CxBladder urine test to make sure no CIS lurking"

Seeing our product helping someone fight Bladder Cancer.

[mattwanz]

Whens the takeover?

[skid]

At this stage I dont think it would be good for PEB share holders--might be great for the buyers though.(i was just bringing up the possibility as it is getting pretty cheap,if some big co wanted to have a part of that market.)

Institutions rebalancing ?

[golden city]

it is clear a downward trend., momentum is keep cracking down

[pak]

Probably old news for most, but looks like PEB is going to be removed from the NZX50 on the 18th Sept. No doubt this will continue to effect sentiment on this stock. On the flip side, Like Skid mentioned, it may make it more attractive for a takeover somewhere down the track. How low it actually has to go is anybody guess though.

[Snow Leopard]

Correct me if I'm wrong, CDY receive a single digit amount per test sold, last financial year they received a $68000 payment from PEB. The first royalty payment from sales.

$68000/$9 = 7555 tests reimbursed for
$68000/$1 = 68000 tests

Now it has to be closer to $10 than $1

Its not that useful as more interesting, because if you multiply out 7555 tests x $500 = 3.7 mil.

Or if you divide Peb last rev 1.7mil/7555 you get a test price $225

Or is my brain farting

There was some discussion with regard to royalties earlier this year as it was noticed that each Edison report on PEB had a different, and higher, percentage royalty rate in it.

But whether it is a percentage, at what rate, how it covers user-trials and on what price basis is all conjecture.

To be honest we know so little about the agreement between PEB and CellMid that everything is pure pointless speculation.

The 'facts' that I know are that CellMid got $18k royalties to HY and $68k (i.e. another $50k) to full year.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[barney]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/355288/pacific-edge-share-price-back-near-46c

[trader_jackson]

Just as I thought "couple of persistent retail shareholders" running away from risk (fair enough).

Nice to see they are still on track to achieve everything, but I'm sure a few more "persistent retail shareholders" will keep running for the high hills, for some reason unknown to me after such an article today.

[kiwidollabill]

"Chief executive David Darling maintained yesterday that achieving $100million revenue by 2018 was still the target."

Here endith the debate?

[couta1]

"Chief executive David Darling maintained yesterday that achieving $100million revenue by 2018 was still the target."

Here endith the debate? Some people just don't seem to get it that a Long term investment means just that, no doubt balance/franco/who will he be next , will be back to bleat on about the $100 million in a never ending repetitious circle or perhaps if we are lucky he won't.

[trader_jackson]

These retail investors dumping the stock probably had a short time horizon (less than a year) and are most likely very inexperienced, ignoring key facts, which in the past few weeks has (most significantly) been that 0 institutions, 0 directors/managers and 0 major shareholders have sold out (these investors being far more experienced and willing to wait).

None the less, the article out today should be reassuring, and really should eliminate any sells under 60 (in my view), but then again there are always a few retail investors who don't know how to wait

[klid]

I don't see that it has anything to do with what is happening to the share price and believe that to be completely "warranted'. Compare it with Xero of late, (like I use to harp on about here). Not much of a discrepancy. Have a think.

[Crackity]

These retail investors dumping the stock probably had a short time horizon (less than a year) and are most likely very inexperienced, ignoring key facts, which in the past few weeks has (most significantly) been that 0 institutions, 0 directors/managers and 0 major shareholders have sold out (these investors being far more experienced and willing to wait).

None the less, the article out today should be reassuring, and really should eliminate any sells under 60 (in my view), but then again there are always a few retail investors who don't know how to wait

Quite a few assumptions in there Trader! There are other possible explanations too but as I'm not Balance / Franco I wont be listing them. :)

[okane]

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/pacific-edge-named-in-tin100-top-10-list/

:t_up:
(http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/pacific-edge-named-in-tin100-top-10-list/)

[skid]

why dont you guys ''talk up'' the company instead of ''talking down'' other posters and investors.
You should be happy with the rise to today-- (even if the news is only in New Zealand)--its a local outfit in Devonport.
put your sour grapes away and be happy

[skid]

Some people just don't seem to get it that a Long term investment means just that, no doubt balance/franco/who will he be next , will be back to bleat on about the $100 million in a never ending repetitious circle or perhaps if we are lucky he won't.

Hey Coutts! Welcome back! (to the thread you wanted abolished):)---come join the party!

[mattwanz]

Waiting to see if any Directors jump in at these low levels - would be a very positive indicator

[BlackPeter]

Waiting to see if any Directors jump in at these low levels - would be a very positive indicator

Why should they? Buying into a well confirmed down trend alone would be unwise (well and consistently below MA200 and MA50), but in this case there is not even a "fundamental bottom" (i.e. something you could sell the company for in case of liquidation). Price can go as low as it wants.

Only reason for the established trend to change would be really good news (like a bunch of insurers begging PEB on their knees to sell them unlimited number of tests at a price PEB can choose) - and if the directors knew about that, than they wouldn't be allowed to buy prior to informing the market.

[skid]

sooner or later (and Im sure before 2 years)we will get an indication of what the company is doing ,or not doing,rather than what outside forces think --(but obviously the latter can affect the SP) There were certainly those who were keen to jump on at the news of this outfits take on what we already knew.
when I first read it ,I thought it was coming from the states--now that would have been news!
See if it drifts back next week---
Disc-I was a bit surprised to see it head into the 40s,but outside markets were chaotic so I guess anything could happen--I thought faith alone would keep it above that level--(guess we cant assume anything ,one way or the other,eh TJ?)

[trader_jackson]

Yes can't assume to much these days, I thought PEB wouldn't be spending to much time below the 0.60 mark, but then again some retail investors aren't as logical and as "loyal" as institutions, major shareholders, senior management and I are.

What was interesting to see was small director buying (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/220534.pdf)... the CFO didn't exactly go on a spending spree, but probably thought at 0.53 and 0.54 there is nothing to lose (at least in the long term)... external pressures (volatility in overseas markets) did also have a big negative effect on PEB, with many retail investors happy to get out, at any cost to their back pocket.

Anyway, I did say I wouldn't be posting much, nothing material really to post about, but looking forward to the half year report coming out in a few weeks time, this will hopefully be a catalyst, although personally I'm not expecting much (still to early).

What I am also looking forward to is seeing 100m revenue by 2018, even if it was a year late it would still be an amazing achievement.

[okane]

Not expecting much? In the ODT piece David Darling says the company is "on target". Therefore I am expecting PEB to meet revenue expectations in its half year report.

[Snow Leopard]

As far as I am aware there are currently three financial targets:

FY2016: Cashflow negative to the tune of $15M2 - you can set your own expectation for HY.

FY2017: Cashflow negative by an unknown amount.

FY2018: NZ$100 revenue.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

Yes can't assume to much these days, I thought PEB wouldn't be spending to much time below the 0.60 mark, but then again some retail investors aren't as logical and as "loyal" as institutions, major shareholders, senior management and I are.

What was interesting to see was small director buying (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/220534.pdf)... the CFO didn't exactly go on a spending spree, but probably thought at 0.53 and 0.54 there is nothing to lose (at least in the long term)... external pressures (volatility in overseas markets) did also have a big negative effect on PEB, with many retail investors happy to get out, at any cost to their back pocket.

Anyway, I did say I wouldn't be posting much, nothing material really to post about, but looking forward to the half year report coming out in a few weeks time, this will hopefully be a catalyst, although personally I'm not expecting much (still to early).

What I am also looking forward to is seeing 100m revenue by 2018, even if it was a year late it would still be an amazing achievement.

So we are in agreement that we shouldnt be making assumptions--thats a good start:) (keep in mind my assumptions were about the price movement in the past -not a prediction of future)
that one ,by one poster,about the director selling at $1.70 because he probably wanted to do some renovations,takes the cake!:)

[gv1]

Sold out today at a huge loss... the body language of MD said it all at AGM.

[Xerof]

I think I was "that one poster", and you clearly missed the heavy cynicism in my post. But, unlike a lot of people on this site, I try to post facts. Darling was quoted in the ODT as saying that was the reason for him selling. Not a word of a lie, I tell you:mellow:

postscript: I have requested photos of said renovations, to no avail. Awaiting google maps to update with recent satellite coverage......

[BigBob]

I think I was "that one poster", and you clearly missed the heavy cynicism in my post. But, unlike a lot of people on this site, I try to post facts. Darling was quoted in the ODT as saying that was the reason for him selling. Not a word of a lie, I tell you:mellow

Mate, that's just plain wrong...

It was Mrs Darling who wanted to renovate... What was po' David to do... :-)

[couta1]

Sounds very much like a true heartfelt comment from a true Southern Man Xerof.

[skid]

I think it was one of those renovations that qualify for building consent if you leave 1original wall in the mansion:)

They are ,however not the ''darlings'' of the share market any more
(maybe in 2 years time..or was it 4?)

[Carpenterjoe]

Keeping an eye on the competition

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0CDsQFjAEahUKEwjJ36nx5vnHAhWne6YKHcXdDzc&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmdxhealth.com%2Fsites%2Fmdxhealth .com%2Ffiles%2F4.%2520Webex%2520Corp%2520Presentat ion%2520Sept%252015%25202015%255B1%255D.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHzZoKxvEA9V4mx-AfoxngcSCgqUA

Sorry about the link I think its right. MDx investor day
Good to see our product used in comparisons. (Page twenty)

Might have to dig out the research paper work on this one.

[pak]

Just had quick read. From what I can see they are claiming far better sensitivity than cx bladder. Looks like their focus is US market as well!!!!!

[skid]

Keeping an eye on the competition

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0CDsQFjAEahUKEwjJ36nx5vnHAhWne6YKHcXdDzc&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmdxhealth.com%2Fsites%2Fmdxhealth .com%2Ffiles%2F4.%2520Webex%2520Corp%2520Presentat ion%2520Sept%252015%25202015%255B1%255D.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHzZoKxvEA9V4mx-AfoxngcSCgqUA

Sorry about the link I think its right. MDx investor day
Good to see our product used in comparisons. (Page twenty)

Might have to dig out the research paper work on this one.

Here comes the competition--Granted it will most likely take one of the whizzes like Hancocks to compare the science--but the real issue is who these guys are partnering up with and licensing too--(some are heavy hitters)-----you cant just wait around for 2 years for someone to come along with better results (if thats the case) AND with connections with other big players--looks like their marketing team have been busy.
If they do have a better product it will be good for the poor average Joe who has a possibility of bladder (or prostate cancer) which is the most important thing (right guys?)

[BlackPeter]

Keeping an eye on the competition

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0CDsQFjAEahUKEwjJ36nx5vnHAhWne6YKHcXdDzc&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmdxhealth.com%2Fsites%2Fmdxhealth .com%2Ffiles%2F4.%2520Webex%2520Corp%2520Presentat ion%2520Sept%252015%25202015%255B1%255D.pdf&usg=AFQjCNHzZoKxvEA9V4mx-AfoxngcSCgqUA

Sorry about the link I think its right. MDx investor day
Good to see our product used in comparisons. (Page twenty)

Might have to dig out the research paper work on this one.

Interesting presentation, Thank You.

2014 sales for their "Confirm MDX" was $11.7m (I suppose US$) - i.e. roughly 4 times of PEB's sales last year.

Obviously in PEB's advantage are the $100m revenue they promised for FY2018, outgrowing MDxHealth's much more conservative growth rates.

How was the saying? Buy the rumour and sell the fact?

[skid]

If ever there was proof that no one listens to us ST posters --its the fact that the buy-sell is actually better than yesterday(SP the same)

[psychic]

If ever there was proof that no one listens to us ST posters --its the fact that the buy-sell is actually better than yesterday(SP the same)

There is a very good reason no one listens to ST posters too.

I'll undoubtedly add to it but.....back to MDxHealth. Yes - they seem to be onto a good thing with ConfirmMDx PROSTRATE.
Will it be any good for Bladder Cancer?

My take on this is that they intend to couple their tech with a couple of biomarkers developed by Erasmus U MC in the Netherlands. No studies published yet that I have found? MDxHealth were to present the results of it's n 154 study at the recent Urological meeting the Netherlands 9-11 Sept. This was supposed to suggest a NPV of 98.3%

But then their Investor presentation says the results are 95% NPV, 95% sensitivity.

Well Triage is 98% NPV, 95% sensitivity.

And if they intend using this to screen those with haematuria , then it is Triage they need to compare results with right?

So a small unpublished (?) study only, they have a way to go hopefully .

No info yet to compare their proposed RecurMDx , which presumably is aimed at Detect or monitor

Agree, need to keep an eye out but they are a way off yet I think. ?

[Snow Leopard]

The presentation is mainly prostate cancer focused and I guess what I would take from this presentation is that MDxHealth:

1/ see a total market size of $1.7B dollars for their ConfirmMDx Prostate Cancer test (slide 9)

2/ are 4-5 years in and are only expecting to achieve $16M in revenue [annual growth of 37%] this year. (slide 29)

The caution I would draw from this (and from many other similar companies) is that there is rarely the rapid growth in revenue which PEB still insist they are going to achieve.

PEB could be the exception to the rule - but what is the likelyhood of that?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[nextbigthing]

PEB could be the exception to the rule - but what is the likelyhood of that?
Paper Tiger

98% NPV, 95% sensitivity. Reasonable I guess.

[skid]

of course they are stressing the prostate test--that is by far where the most cases are(where the money is)--if thats not to insensitive.---but I guess to say that hopefully a better test is a way off is not really having the patients best interest in mind either,is it?--Of course its understandable from an economic point of view(fair enough from a shareholders point of view)
The fact that they have apparently already made more than PEB is reason for concern though(and of course the connections with bigger players as mentioned earlier)
tiss a tiny market compared with the ole prostrate.

And another company taking 4 times as much of it is not good--IMO its not the 1-2% sensitivity that is the issue--Its more that a competitor has a combination of products that include the all important prostrate test and the bladder test comes with the package.If they have a bladder test that is better ,or almost as good,is the market going to go with the package,the one stop shop-or go off looking for another company that has a product for the tiny bladder test market that is almost the same in terms of sensitivity.
We dont know the price of MDx so that is of course a factor---keeping an eye on them is pretty sound advice--It will be interesting to see both companies next results (of course they are both going for the big Kahuna --the USA

[pak]

This almost went under my radar, but big volume trade went down at end of play on Friday. Wonder if we are on the verge of some news - positive/negative. Could go either way. Will be interesting if we get an announcement in the next few days.

[trader_jackson]

Yes interesting to see over $360k traded in last minute... probably a keen investor buying up while its still trading at a steep discount (relative to its long term value at least)

[percy]

This almost went under my radar, but big volume trade went down at end of play on Friday. Wonder if we are on the verge of some news - positive/negative. Could go either way. Will be interesting if we get an announcement in the next few days.

Late in the day I noticed big volumes going through in the following stocks.;AIR,EBO,FPH,GMT,HNZ,MEL,RYM.and SKL.
Most probably others,but those are ones I have on my watch list.
Who,what,why I don't know.

[skid]

Late in the day I noticed big volumes going through in the following stocks.;AIR,EBO,FPH,GMT,HNZ,MEL,RYM.and SKL.
Most probably others,but those are ones I have on my watch list.
Who,what,why I don't know.

Dont suppose it would have anything to do with global markets dropping across the globe,ending up with the Dow tumbleing--now Im not going to go out on a limb and say ''probably'' (TJ)..but does it look like a happy situation out there? (did you notice how many of those volume spikes were drops in SP?)

[pak]

Gd point, the ones I watched dropped SP with high volume - confirmation of down trend maybe. Dow was definately looking unstable after the fed announcement. PEB also officially dropping out of nzx50. Could be a volitile week ahead again.

[trader_jackson]

Volatility index is on a downward trend and everyone already knows PEB is dropping out of the NZX 50 and portfolios may have already been adjusted...

The week ahead will be interesting for PEB, not because of the Fed or PEB dropping out of NZX 50, as these factors are already known, but what is not known is why this big trade made on Friday at 4:59, and if it will continue into Monday morning or not...

Not sure how the rest of the market will be reacting either, as HNZ also had a massive 'last minute' (literally) drop under heavy volume

[Crackity]

Volatility index is on a downward trend and everyone already knows PEB is dropping out of the NZX 50 and portfolios may have already been adjusted...

The week ahead will be interesting for PEB, not because of the Fed or PEB dropping out of NZX 50, as these factors are already known, but what is not known is why this big trade made on Friday at 4:59, and if it will continue into Monday morning or not...

Not sure how the rest of the market will be reacting either, as HNZ also had a massive 'last minute' (literally) drop under heavy volume

Quite a few ' last minute ' large trades on Friday - I suspect they came out of Oz - I think the share price actually held up quite well

[Xerof]

You might like to research for when the various global indices get rebalanced. MSCI's might be a good place to start. I dont think any more than that should be read into it, as this is at least a biennial moment of wonderment.

[Crackity]

You might like to research for when the various global indices get rebalanced. MSCI's might be a good place to start. I dont think any more than that should be read into it, as this is at least a biennial moment of wonderment.

If I don't have at least a biennial moment of wonderment Mr Xerof Sir I get very upset

[Snow Leopard]

Yes interesting to see over $360k traded in last minute... probably a keen investor buying up while its still trading at a steep discount (relative to its long term value at least)

This is a very speculative share, the possibilities over the next 10 years are enormous:
1/ It could go bust;
2/ It could limp along on capital raising after capital raising promising that profitability is only a few years away;
3/ It could be moderately profitable but never meet that aspirational NZ$100M;

4/ There are more: [Table of NZ$100 achieved in year, % growth thereafter, current value, EOFY value]

7615;

5/ There are even more - why not try it home ?
-- But please use sensible assumptions.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[blackcap]

I think you might be upsetting a lot of people with those valuations PT :)

[trader_jackson]

This is a very speculative share, the possibilities over the next 10 years are enormous:
1/ It could go bust;
2/ It could limp along on capital raising after capital raising promising that profitability is only a few years away;
3/ It could be moderately profitable but never meet that aspirational NZ$100M;

4/ There are more: [Table of NZ$100 achieved in year, % growth thereafter, current value, EOFY value]

7615;

5/ There are even more - why not try it home ?
-- But please use sensible assumptions.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

All very reasonable possibilities PT, and equally so the possibility it could turn into a raging success (that is once people give it a few more years to "prove what it has said it will prove")

[skid]

i think the ''equally so'' may be stretching it, but time will tell--right now ,the competitors are outselling it by a pretty big margin,and even the most steadfast supporters must agree that this is a very difficult time and things are not going to the original plan.
If the sensitivity results of the new competitor are the real deal then PTs no1 could eventuate.
If it stays ahead of the competitors and really does stay the ''gold standard'' then No.1 & 2 are probably the most probable.

There is still the possibility of the raging success but you would have to say its not in the realm of ''equally so'' (but you never know--(Japan did beat SA in the rugby WC)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/270461
(https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/270461)
No surprises here people... looks like the "pros" are buying up on retail panic (I think I mentioned a while back I wouldn't be surprised if a 'cornerstone' institutional investor was buying in while retail investors panicked...)

One of the (now several) institutions happy to wait till success rolls in, buying while the shares are still at a substantial discount to their potential value.

[whatsup]

See todays ann as Devon Funds Management has increased its holding by 1.2 % , some one likes PEB >

[trader_jackson]

When are people picking PEB to announce there results? (some update I believe is coming out in the next couple of weeks, and that was a week or so ago I think)

(My recent thoughts: Good to see retail investors are [mostly] holding onto the shares, causing a slow and steady upward march, impressive given these rough times of volatility)

[Carpenterjoe]

When are people picking PEB to announce there results? (some update I believe is coming out in the next couple of weeks, and that was a week or so ago I think)

(My recent thoughts: Good to see retail investors are [mostly] holding onto the shares, causing a slow and steady upward march, impressive given these rough times of volatility)

Late November, TJ

Wouldn't worry about the share price,

keep monitoring your research!

[blobbles]

When are people picking PEB to announce there results? (some update I believe is coming out in the next couple of weeks, and that was a week or so ago I think)

(My recent thoughts: Good to see retail investors are [mostly] holding onto the shares, causing a slow and steady upward march, impressive given these rough times of volatility)

I think only the most one eyed of observers would call PEB's recent SP action "slow and steady upward march"!

7624

[Crackity]

I think only the most one eyed of observers would call PEB's recent SP action "slow and steady upward march"!

7624

always much easier to turn your iPad slightly ( or massively depending on the share) sideways if you don't like the chart :)

[Snow Leopard]

I think only the most one eyed of observers would call PEB's recent SP action "slow and steady upward march"!

7624

Look at the positives:

7625

1 - Three weeks of confirmed uptrend (within a long term downtrend admittedly)
2 - Nearly back to the 50day EMA
3 - It is not Pumpkin Patch

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[blobbles]

Look at the positives:

7625

1 - Three weeks of confirmed uptrend (within a long term downtrend admittedly)
2 - Nearly back to the 50day EMA
3 - It is not Pumpkin Patch

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

1 - Great if you like to cherry pick dates!
2 - Attaining the 50day EMA has happened to PEB 7 times in the last year. Yet we have always moved lower soon after...
3 - No comment. Poor PPL!

[trader_jackson]

I don't think charting helps with PEB to much (unfortunately) just looking forward to mid November, and the generally positive news flow that (sometimes) precedes it.

Yes, at least its not PPL...

[skid]

You dont think charting helps,you have got to be joking--If you had gone on chart action you would have been out (with considerably more dosh)ages ago back when 4 or 5 cents didnt add up to 10%.

That generally positive news flow that precedes it has generally been a death knell (remember when Snaps was predicting the SP to fall into the 50s because of the capital raising.Well it may not have been for that reason but the result was the same.(well not exactly the same -it fell into the 40s)--Now its time for celebration because its 55.

Its a good thing PEB shares dont seem to pay much attention to outside markets because Bioteks have crashed 13% in 1 week in USA (admittedly Hillary has caused some turmoil)but that stuff sometimes sticks.

If you want to do some research to keep CJ happy maybe check out the competition so you have something to compare to--(this is not a
statement that they are better or worse -but they are there,competing for market share

http://mdxhealth.com/press-release/mdxhealth-reports-first-half-2015-results

As you optimistically wait for the great November results you will have something to compare them to.--and then if you still have time you can go to the chart and count the little blips that correspond to the 1-2 weekly rise that just happened.--Good luck

Meanwhile-pay no attention to the man behind the curtain (outside markets)----(was that movie still around when you were a kid?)

[skid]

Look at the positives:

7625

1 - Three weeks of confirmed uptrend (within a long term downtrend admittedly)
2 - Nearly back to the 50day EMA
3 - It is not Pumpkin Patch

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PT ,thank goodness for your sense of humor--- (reminds me of a saying by the Scottish bomb squad---''we know just enough to get ourselves killed'':)

[trader_jackson]

Meanwhile-pay no attention to the man behind the curtain (outside markets)----(was that movie still around when you were a kid?)

PEB did not experience a massive rally when bio tech was going crazy, so its no surprise (to me at least) that these "outside" markets (and the mainly downward trend they are currently experiencing) are not having much impact on PEB (at least for now).

Yes, I look forward to the November update/results

[skid]

Hopefully this time it will not raise more questions than answers.

[mattwanz]

http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/in-print/2015/september-2015/30-september/the-national-health-committee-asking-the-hard-questions.aspx

[pak]

Can't access it. Can you copy and paste please?

[skid]

There was some mention about how they have gotten regulatory approval to process US tests in their Dunedin lab (why they would need to do that when they have a US lab is a puzzle) Not sure if thats what the article is about but they have been reporting on PEB for some time now (years)
.50 seems to be the magic number (alot have been bought and sold at that price incl 250000 yesterday) reshuffling instos holding?