PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[etrader]

There was some mention about how they have gotten regulatory approval to process US tests in their Dunedin lab (why they would need to do that when they have a US lab is a puzzle) Not sure if thats what the article is about but they have been reporting on PEB for some time now (years)
.50 seems to be the magic number (alot have been bought and sold at that price incl 250000 yesterday) reshuffling instos holding?

Skid - the only reason for them gaining US approval for the Dunedin lap is if some disaster happened to their lab in the states, this will allow them to fly down tests to Dunedin so basically a smart insurance policy.

[Balance]

Oh dear, truly below rights issue price now. Silence is not golden - more like rust?

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear, truly below rights issue price now. Silence is not golden - more like rust?

Welcome back, Balance ... I guess the good thing about this happening during your extended absence is that now nobody can claim that it was just you talking this stock down:D.

But yes - just looking at the consistent down trend should be enough for any astute investor .. SP staying quite persistently below the MA50 ...

[skid]

i think most who are still invested are taking the Ostrich approach--Those who wanted to shut the thread down have gotten their wish (more or less) no one gives a toss--there are new kids on the block that are actually doing something ATM AIR and even BLT (I guess theres still a ray of hope if you look at BLT)

[blobbles]

40c by end of the month?

Remember with this one, a decent bit of news and the SP could quadruple quite quickly... With 30m more in the bank, one hopes they can pull some together.

[winner69]

i think most who are still invested are taking the Ostrich approach--Those who wanted to shut the thread down have gotten their wish (more or less) no one gives a toss--there are new kids on the block that are actually doing something ATM AIR and even BLT (I guess theres still a ray of hope if you look at BLT)

The private group probably still talking to each other and giving each other comfort this with an intrinsic value of $1.70 odd the market is getting more and more irrational as each day goes by.

One good announcement and share price goes to $1.20 they be proved right

[Balance]

The private group probably still talking to each other and giving each other comfort this with an intrinsic value of $1.70 odd the market is getting more and more irrational as each day goes by.

One good announcement and share price goes to $1.20 they be proved right

I suspect they have been busy also recently with loads of pants and underpants being put through the laundry machines?

Fear not however as David Darling and fellow directors have been waiting for this obscene opportunity to load up on PEB shares.

One SSH notice from either Swan and Darling increasing their stakes by over 100,000 shares and watch the sp rocket. Heck, Darling may even let everyone know he is remortgaging his house to grab this once in a lifetime opportunity to make tens of thousands of dollars of gains?

[winner69]

I suspect they have been busy also recently with loads of pants and underpants being put through the laundry machines?

Fear not however as David Darling and fellow directors have been waiting for this obscene opportunity to load up on PEB shares.

One SSH notice from either Swan and Darling increasing their stakes by over 100,000 shares and watch the sp rocket. Heck, Darling may even let everyone know he is remortgaging his house to grab this once in a lifetime opportunity to make tens of thousands of dollars of gains?

Those 'hundreds of thousands' or was it 'tens of thousands' you quote seem familiar phrases - heard them before somewhere I have

[skid]

Those 'hundreds of thousands' or was it 'tens of thousands' you quote seem familiar phrases - heard them before somewhere I have

How about ''ramping up'' ''40% profit if you want it'' 'He probably sold (DD) to make a new deck'' ''It would be dangerous not to buy'' ''Its posters fault the SP has tanked'' ''maybe you should take over if your complaining''--''Medical Tourism will get things going''--and finally ''I think there should be a ban on different views (this thread)and we should all give them 2 years'' YIPPEE! :)

[Balance]

How about ''ramping up'' ''40% profit if you want it'' 'He probably sold (DD) to make a new deck'' ''It would be dangerous not to buy'' ''Its posters fault the SP has tanked'' ''maybe you should take over if your complaining''--''Medical Tourism will get things going''--and finally ''I think there should be a ban on different views (this thread)and we should all give them 2 years'' YIPPEE! :)

Careful - he may well alert to yet another 'skin in the teeth' escape from takeover but this time, he regrets the Board will accept the $1.00 offer as ST posters have made him lost faith in the market.

[Iolite]

http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/in-print/2015/september-2015/30-september/the-national-health-committee-asking-the-hard-questions.aspx

Relevant part of the above linked article:

MR GUTHRIE IS now planning how a field evaluation of a Kiwi-developed bladder cancer detection test, Cxbladder, is to be run. General practice will be a prime player. The NHC is studying the Cxbladder product (marketed by Pacific Edge) and those of other companies. It has researched the context: how haematuria is managed, the resourcing it uses, and how patient outcomes and models of care could be improved. Mr Guthrie says the committee is careful to protect its independence and would not carry out work for a company. “What we do must benefit the patient population,” he says. If “spillover” benefits to the economy emerge, that would be additional to the health benefits. And Mrs Kolbe cautions on Cxbladder: “We are not sure whether it is going to add value.” Analysis so far leads the committee to think “a moderate amount” of reduced burden on secondary care may be achieved if this technology is used properly and effectively, she says.

The NHC is an independent statutory body charged with prioritising new and existing health technologies and making recommendations to the Minister of Health.
From the above NZ Doctor article:

The committee reports only to the health minister. In a sense, it has the second-to-last word on whether a new or existing treatment or technology ought to be funded in the public system. The committee must first take a close look, from four angles: clinical; societal and ethical; economical; and feasibility.

There are a bunch of documents on the NHC website, related to CxBladder Detect and Triage, which show the NHC's considerations up to the point where they are now planning a field evaluation (documents listed on righthand side of webpage):
http://nhc.health.govt.nz/haematuria-presentation-diagnostic-pathway-and-alternative-diagnostic-options

[Meister]

Thanks Iolite, that triage document alone is extremely informative and very good reading for anybody interested or invested in Pacific Edge (http://nhc.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/publications/t3_triage.pdf)
It all sounds positive to me, if a little slow moving. There doesn't seem to be huge money to be made in NZ either, but triage was due to launch in the US by the end of October, subject to approval somewhere, so hopefully that announcement will be coming up shortly.

[Iolite]

If the NHC makes a recommendation to the Ministry of Health to fund CxBladder Detect and/or Triage, then although this probably won't equate to a huge revenue increase, it will surely bolster uptake by other countries with similar Government-funded healthcare systems, eg, Australia and the UK.
I expect it would also make the product a more compelling proposition for coverage by the many private insurance companies in the US, although some of that coverage is likely to come before the NZ NHS make a final decision.

This will probably take a lot of time though, so it is still sloooooooooow and steady as she goes.....

I'm off to stick my head back in the sand, so I can't see the current shareprice!

[skid]

I think the US would want to run it through their own system (which is whats happening?)and then compare with other products.
in a perfect world economics should not get in the way of customer care ,but of course it does,so a package deal with another provider is a possible stumbling block,especially if their product is even almost as good.
Slow and steady grind is a realistic hope.

PS-Dont have to be a holder to hope that it does get covered in the NZ health system

[kiwidollabill]

Shouldn't we get an interim HY report around now?

[pierre]

Shouldn't we get an interim HY report around now?

28 November was the date for the release of the results to 30 September 2014 - so about 5 weeks to go.

Will be interesting to see if there's any announcements of ink on paper prior to that date - there's usually something to try to get us a little bit excited. We certainly need something this year!

[NZSilver]

Well I keep an eye on PEB as I use to hold plenty. How's that ann after trading, another nail in the coffin, not a good sign at all. Glad I sold out of my PEB a while back.

[CatO'Tonic]

Hi all, first time poster, long time optimist. I held PEB too, for a lot longer than I should have. First bought in mid-2013 before the price went nuts. Was very happy with the big spike late in 2013 and thought I had made a very astute investment, buying on the way up. When the SP started to tank I stuck my head in the sand and actually caught the falling knife a couple of times thinking I was getting the bargain of the century. Eventually I got tired of being wrong and sold out for what turned out to be enough of a loss for me to learn a valuable lesson. I really like this company, admire what they are doing and wish them every success. Having said that, I'm not prepared to lose my hard earned dosh to support a good idea because a good idea isn't enough. Looking back, I should have known better. In the early 2000's I put a bit of money into a company called Virionyx. They had a great idea too (potentially a cure for AIDS). Unfortunately, they had a similar story: no support from the big players, constantly changing strategic focus and an endless string of (one last) shareholder whip-arounds for more cash. It didn't end well. Last I heard, they had changed their name (and the focus of their research) in the late 2000's. I'm sure if they had enlisted the support of a major pharma early on, their story might be different. Anyway, I wish the best of luck to holders of PEB, I'm sure there are a few of you who can afford to back a speculative biotech in this market but as far as my own situation, I'm looking for solid returns until the market figures out what it wants to do. Disc - not holding any more and nursing a few wounds from this one.

[couta1]

Well I keep an eye on PEB as I use to hold plenty. How's that ann after trading, another nail in the coffin, not a good sign at all. Glad I sold out of my PEB a while back. On the contrary, why continue with a partner that's not doing the business that it should?

[Crackity]

On the contrary, why continue with a partner that's not doing the business that it should?

Absolutely - maybe next week there will be an announcement of a bigger and better Oz partner.

[Balance]

Absolutely - maybe next week there will be an announcement of a bigger and better Oz partner.

DD will be announcing a merger or a takeover by another company.

Be in, QUICK and BUY big.

[Crackity]

DD will be announcing a merger or a takeover by another company.

Be in, QUICK and BUY big.

wouldnt want to be accused of insider trading or anything Balance but everyone read it here first.

[Meister]

Australia is performing below our expectations and we are now taking a more active role in sales and marketing and expect to be making changes in our distribution channels over the next year to help grow our sales.

The above being from the AGM speeches, they were clearly aware that Australia wasn't doing as well as it should. While it sounds negative and is disappointing to read about, this is probably a good step forward for the company. They have compared their progress in Australia vs their other markets, and they can see it isn't where it should be.

[Carpenterjoe]

The above being from the AGM speeches, they were clearly aware that Australia wasn't doing as well as it should. While it sounds negative and is disappointing to read about, this is probably a good step forward for the company. They have compared their progress in Australia vs their other markets, and they can see it isn't where it should be.

I suspect the sale of Healthscope pathology to Crescent capital partners in July as more of the reason for change. No new news here, surprised they even bothered with an announcement.

Would be interesting if the next partnership was multinational, someone like Sonic could be cool.

[skid]

Of course ,if they manage to team up with a big commercial partner in the states it would support the ''big news'' but trying a new distribution outfit in Australia is not going to shake the earth--This is not the first time this sort of banter has hit the posts on this share so DYOR (otherwise you are just depending on some one else having access to insider trading)

actually--maybe Im just getting a slow start to my Sat morn and have completely missed the sarcasm in the big news alert..:p

[BlackPeter]

Hi all, first time poster, long time optimist. I held PEB too, for a lot longer than I should have. First bought in mid-2013 before the price went nuts. Was very happy with the big spike late in 2013 and thought I had made a very astute investment, buying on the way up. When the SP started to tank I stuck my head in the sand and actually caught the falling knife a couple of times thinking I was getting the bargain of the century. Eventually I got tired of being wrong and sold out for what turned out to be enough of a loss for me to learn a valuable lesson. I really like this company, admire what they are doing and wish them every success. Having said that, I'm not prepared to lose my hard earned dosh to support a good idea because a good idea isn't enough. Looking back, I should have known better. In the early 2000's I put a bit of money into a company called Virionyx. They had a great idea too (potentially a cure for AIDS). Unfortunately, they had a similar story: no support from the big players, constantly changing strategic focus and an endless string of (one last) shareholder whip-arounds for more cash. It didn't end well. Last I heard, they had changed their name (and the focus of their research) in the late 2000's. I'm sure if they had enlisted the support of a major pharma early on, their story might be different. Anyway, I wish the best of luck to holders of PEB, I'm sure there are a few of you who can afford to back a speculative biotech in this market but as far as my own situation, I'm looking for solid returns until the market figures out what it wants to do. Disc - not holding any more and nursing a few wounds from this one.

Hi CatO'Tonic - Welcome to the forum! And yes, it appears these days safer to publish anything critical on the PEB thread, so you should be fine ;).

I am sure that most of us went through similar experiences like you when we started with our investment career (obviously with different stocks) - and some are able to admit and learn from their mistakes, and others are not.

Hope your future investments go better ... and maybe we hear as well about them?

[CatO'Tonic]

Thanks BP, I'd never want to criticise any company or strategy. I'd like to think the purpose of a forum like sharetrader is to spread information and share experiences among kindred spirits, not criticise other people's choices. I'm sure there will be people who do very well from Pacific
edge. They have huge potential and a formidable talent pool. After my recent schooling however, I realise that I'm not in a position to take the necessary risk. I don't have the knowledge or experience to sleep well at night with this kind of company in my portfolio; and I'm happy to stick with the safe option - going for dividend yield and proven earnings over (potential) capital gain and sleepless nights. Disc: The only skin I have in the NXZ at the moment is in SKL and IFT. Even so, in the current market I have the sell button on a hair trigger...

[Carpenterjoe]

http://annals.org/article.aspx?articleid=2466370

Soooooooo painful,


For those that find science interesting.

[nextbigthing]

http://annals.org/article.aspx?articleid=2466370

Soooooooo painful,


For those that find science interesting.

Conclusion: Urinary biomarkers miss a substantial proportion of patients with bladder cancer and are subject to false-positive results in others. Accuracy is poor for low-stage and low-grade tumors.

Maybe this explains the lack of U.S. traction.

[kiwidollabill]

Yea that paper is kinda a big problem for PEB.

This smacks their value prop in the face.

"The value of urinary biomarkers and whether they are sufficiently accurate to reduce the need for cystoscopy depends on the ability of clinicians to estimate the pretest probability of disease, the importance to patients and clinicians of relatively small changes in the probability of bladder cancer, and the acceptable threshold and clinical consequences of missed or delayed diagnoses and false-positive results"

They also only quoted one CXbladder paper "with medium risk of bias", sensitivity of 0.82 (CI, 0.70 to 0.90) and specificity of 0.85 (CI, 0.81 to 0.88)

[Carpenterjoe]

Conclusion:Urinary biomarkers miss a substantial proportion of patients with bladder cancer and are subject to false-positive results in others. Accuracy is poor for low-stage and low-grade tumors.

Maybe this explains the lack of U.S. traction.

Or why would these guys take a pool of 4358 potential abstracts and decide that only 57 are relevant. Interesting how science works or doesn't.


And of the 57 only 12 papers are from the last ten years. No really up with the times. Just a good illustration of how Slow science can move.


Anyhow,

[skid]

I think I would still choose PEBs product over the others -but this study is not a great look for urine bio markers in general.
If you have the cash, its still an easier first step over the eye watering invasive procedure--but whether this will be adopted and financed by providers is the question.
Upcoming company results will help to clarify.

[kiwidollabill]

Or why would these guys take a pool of 4358 potential abstracts and decide that only 57 are relevant. Interesting how science works or doesn't.


And of the 57 only 12 papers are from the last ten years. No really up with the times. Just a good illustration of how Slow science can move.

Anyhow,


They removed papers that are irrelevant to a rigorous review of available biomarker tests.

"We excluded studies that used a case–control design; studies that did not evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers against standard diagnostic methods (cystoscopy and histopathology); and studies on the accuracy of biomarkers for screening in assessing prognosis, guiding therapy, or monitoring response to treatment."

[blu3]

Please forgive me but I am a bit confused here—wasn't the only certainty about PEB being that CxBladder was a great, reliable, product? Or did I misunderstand something this whole time?

[Snow Leopard]

Please forgive me but I am a bit confused here—wasn't the only certainty about PEB being that CxBladder was a great, reliable, product? Or did I misunderstand something this whole time?

The problem may be that:
"The purpose of this study was to systematically review the evidence on the comparative accuracy of urinary biomarkers for diagnosis of bladder cancer. This review was conducted as part of a larger review (5) on the evaluation and treatment of non–muscle-invasive bladder cancer that was nominated to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) by the American Urological Association for use in updating its guidelines" (my bold).

and in the study CxBladder is:
1/ Not FDA approved but up against 6 that are;
2/ There is only 1 study for it against multiple for the other 6;
3/ Is apparently no better than one of the other 6 in the "Evaluation of symptoms" i.e. possible one of two best tests.
4/ not in a number of the comparison tables.

and the report concludes by hedging it's bets that this whole "Urinary Biomarkers for Diagnosis of Bladder Cancer" thing may not be good enough, yet.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS This is my take on it. DYOR (Do Your Own Reading).

[skid]

How it stands up against the other tests has become a sub issue if they are slagging the whole bio marker process.
That certainly flies in the face of comparisons with the cytology process which were supposed to be in favor of bio markers for more accurate results. So it is a bit baffling in terms of the information we have been hearing.
Is this just another example of how conservative the medical industry really is-(stick with the ole standby process)or is the whole bio marker thing just not good enough yet, to change the course of how these things go.(but maybe still get there in time, and get into the ''guidelines'')---I suppose it doesnt mean that these tests haven't still been selling,but itcould be a bit of a hit on the exponential increase arena.

[blu3]

Thanks Paper Tiger and skid!

As biased as the results might be, and seeing that this study has been initiated by the US urological association as outlined by Paper Tiger, it does feel like to me that CxBladder's success in the US is now more unlikely than ever. I am currently showing an heavy loss with this stock but I guess it's time for me to turn the page.

[kiwidollabill]

The problem may be that:
"The purpose of this study was to systematically review the evidence on the comparative accuracy of urinary biomarkers for diagnosis of bladder cancer. This review was conducted as part of a larger review (5) on the evaluation and treatment of non–muscle-invasive bladder cancer that was nominated to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) by the American Urological Association for use in updating its guidelines" (my bold).

and in the study CxBladder is:
1/ Not FDA approved but up against 6 that are;
2/ There is only 1 study for it against multiple for the other 6;
3/ Is apparently no better than one of the other 6 in the "Evaluation of symptoms" i.e. possible one of two best tests.
4/ not in a number of the comparison tables.

and the report concludes by hedging it's bets that this whole "Urinary Biomarkers for Diagnosis of Bladder Cancer" thing may not be good enough, yet.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS This is my take on it. DYOR (Do Your Own Reading).


Well put, and no it is 'not good enough yet'. Sometimes we think in a black and white world and the statistics makes everything a bit hazy and uncomfortable

[kiwidollabill]

How it stands up against the other tests has become a sub issue if they are slagging the whole bio marker process.
That certainly flies in the face of comparisons with the cytology process which were supposed to be in favor of bio markers for more accurate results. So it is a bit baffling in terms of the information we have been hearing.
Is this just another example of how conservative the medical industry really is-(stick with the ole standby process)or is the whole bio marker thing just not good enough yet, to change the course of how these things go.(but maybe still get there in time, and get into the ''guidelines'')---I suppose it doesnt mean that these tests haven't still been selling,but itcould be a bit of a hit on the exponential increase arena.

Human healthcare/diagnostics is one of the most highly regulated industries in the world (particularly in the US) and you are surprised that an association group of doctors is conservative in their evaluation of novel testing methods? \

"So it is a bit baffling in terms of the information we have been hearing." From who? PEB or independent urology groups?

[trader_jackson]

As you may have noticed, I, along with several other 'pro PEB' people have not been posting.

Lets just wait till annual results before we start writing PEB off... the commentary for me will be of particular interest, and it would not be surprising to see some major announcements regarding user programmes and progress either with, or before the results. I think DD, having taken another 35m of investors (which alot of institutional investors have jumped in on) knows he is 'under the pump'.

As for this report, I am no scientist, but I think it can only be described as 'rubbish'... I mean lets be honest here, the report is basically trying to compare apples with old cars...
Pacific Edges product, being newer than all of the other products on this list (I could be wrong on this), is barely compared in a number of tables, and is based off 1 study vs multiple for the others (as Paper Tiger mentioned).

Further still, there is no real clear and concise conclusion that PEB's product (or any other product) is not as good as or far better than other products in the market. I had a brief read over it, and it was very difficult for me to understand so I could be wrong, but if they were trying to compare products to see which is best, they did a terrible, terrible job.

I'm not saying don't trust the report, but maybe just read it with an extremely large tablespoon of salt... there are far far more independent and verified journals and reports that support PEB's products being some of the best [maybe not the best, but right up there] than there is saying it is 'no good'.

[Snow Leopard]

As you may have noticed, I, along with several other 'pro PEB' people have not been posting.

...As for this report, I am no scientist, but I think it can only be described as 'rubbish'...

...I had a brief read over it, and it was very difficult for me to understand so I could be wrong, but if they were trying to compare products to see which is best, they did a terrible, terrible job...

...there are far far more independent and verified journals and reports that support PEB's products being some of the best [maybe not the best, but right up there] than there is saying it is 'no good'.

1/. I believe that the massive capital raising was basically an admission, without admitting it, that "the 100 million plan" was well off track. I also believe that those who went quiet did so because they also believe that.

2/ & 3/. Saying that you find it hard to understand and then dismissing it by saying it is rubbish & terrible?

4/. Name the independent studies on PEB.

Do not get me wrong - I hope that PEB and CxBladder is commercially successful but I think people need to be realistic in their expectations.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[trader_jackson]

1/. I believe that the massive capital raising was basically an admission, without admitting it, that "the 100 million plan" was well off track. I also believe that those who went quiet did so because they also believe that.

2/ & 3/. Saying that you find it hard to understand and then dismissing it by saying it is rubbish & terrible?

4/. Name the independent studies on PEB.

Do not get me wrong - I hope that PEB and CxBladder is commercially successful but I think people need to be realistic in their expectations.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

1) I think it was an admission that things are taking longer than usual... ie the $100m goal may take 1-2 years longer and it is going to be a bit more expensive initially than what was thought

2&3) I think it is 'rubbish' because it isn't really making a fair comparison at all, which is one of the contributing factors to it being hard to understand. Both ways, I have 'dismissed it'.

4) Now I'm not sure if this is the 'right' thing to be comparing it to, and I'm also not sure who funded the study (maybe it was pacific edge?) but here is an article (as previously announced on the nzx earlier this year) http://www.clpmag.com/2015/06/study-cxbladder-detect-outperforms-other-noninvasive-bladder-cancer-diagnostics/

I understand your perspective paper tiger, but I think that we should sit back, have a coffee, and wait till November 26 (expected reporting date)

[Snow Leopard]

1/. So I think we can agree that we agree with regard to item 1/. :t_up:


2/. & 3/. I will come back to that. :sleep:


4/. That is a link to a online magazine article. The article probably supplied by Pacific Edge, references a study basically conducted by Pacific Edge (5 of the 8 co-authors are PEB employees).

In this study of studies CxBladder is compared with some of it 'competitors' and comes out top dog. :t_up:


2/. & 3/. bis. There has been published recently another, but independent, study of studies which compares CxBladder with a larger number of it's competitors but apparently it is 'terrible' and 'rubbish' and we can 'dismiss' it, because it does not come out unequivocally as top dog. :t_down:


Thanks for the coffee.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Leftfield]

This latest ‘research’ seems not overly helpful and 'muddies the water' somewhat for PEB

PEB shareholders continue to wait for more informed news i.e.

1.) The User Programme with Southern California Permanente Medical Group involving an estimated 2,000 patients to evaluate the performance of Cxbladder Triage. According to PEB this evaluation is expected to conclude at the end of 2015/early 2016 and promises to be a key indicator for the Cxbladder
2.) The conclusion of discussions with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and Veteran’s Administration (VA) – both with significant patient numbers (approx. 12 million people) – is anticipated in calendar 2015.

Holders can anticipate an update from PEB by End Nov 2015. Until then it is a waiting game.

[skid]

Human healthcare/diagnostics is one of the most highly regulated industries in the world (particularly in the US) and you are surprised that an association group of doctors is conservative in their evaluation of novel testing methods? \

"So it is a bit baffling in terms of the information we have been hearing." From who? PEB or independent urology groups?

Dont get me wrong--Im not surprised at all that they are conservative--just bringing the info to light--a recap so to speak

Clarification--Its baffling if you listen and believe PEB releases and some of the poster on this thread--In other words ''houston we have a problem''

[skid]

1) I think it was an admission that things are taking longer than usual... ie the $100m goal may take 1-2 years longer and it is going to be a bit more expensive initially than what was thought

2&3) I think it is 'rubbish' because it isn't really making a fair comparison at all, which is one of the contributing factors to it being hard to understand. Both ways, I have 'dismissed it'.

4) Now I'm not sure if this is the 'right' thing to be comparing it to, and I'm also not sure who funded the study (maybe it was pacific edge?) but here is an article (as previously announced on the nzx earlier this year) http://www.clpmag.com/2015/06/study-cxbladder-detect-outperforms-other-noninvasive-bladder-cancer-diagnostics/

I understand your perspective paper tiger, but I think that we should sit back, have a coffee, and wait till November 26 (expected reporting date)

Irrelevant--Its the AMERICAN UROLOGICAL ASS.---You dont dismiss these guys---They call the shots whether you like it(or dismiss it) or not

Apples and Oranges are not important if they are telling you not to eat fruit---It doesnt matter if you think they are right -or even if they are wrong. What matters is how it affects commercial success.

You take all this stuff on board and make a decision on the likelihood of a good sales report and the future of the company --or you just wait and drink coffee (hows that goin for you so far?)

They just sacked their commercial partner in OZ because they were'nt selling enough
They changed marketing firms in the States
Now this
They (and everyone) is waiting for Kaiser to finish their trial so we can get a report on how well the product has performed in an arena the AUA has just trashed
How many ducks do you need to line up?

[couta1]

As I don't drink coffee I'm quite happy to patiently wait whilst enjoying my daily cups of tea.

[Minerbarejet]

As I don't drink coffee I'm quite happy to patiently wait whilst enjoying my daily cups of tea.
While reading old news articles full of ancient data from 2014.

[skid]

While reading old news articles full of ancient data from 2014.

Irrelevant--rightly or wrongly the AUA has spoken

Disc-I was as surprised as you no doubt were at this report.


Anyone want to take a guess on what the ''good news'' story will be this time just before the PEB update.

Im guessing it will be about how they have found a new awesome commercial partner in OZ to sell their product. (and of course they are happy and excited about how things are going)

[couta1]

Irrelevant--rightly or wrongly the AUA has spoken

Disc-I was as surprised as you no doubt were at this report.


Anyone want to take a guess on what the ''good news'' story will be this time just before the PEB update.

Im guessing it will be about how they have found a new awesome commercial partner in OZ to sell their product. (and of course they are happy and excited about how things are going)
The report is simply a literature review,nothing more than that and if you read it you will see it recognizes its own limitations and that more work needs to be done to determine best practice for patients, don't read more into it than is intended and apply it to the future success or failure of PEB.

[Minerbarejet]

Data used for Report
Data sources. Electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE®, January 1990–October 2014, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials through September 2014, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews through September 2014, Health Technology Assessment through Third Quarter 2014, National Health Sciences Economic Evaluation Database through Third Quarter 2014, and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects through Third Quarter 2014); reference lists; and clinical trials registries.

[skid]

the American Urological Association in updating its guidelines has said that using urinary bio markers may not be good enough yet to be put in their guidelines

You decide what to make of it.

Im not arguing the data in the report--just simply saying its not a good look for the bio marker companies in terms of getting their foot in the door with commercial success

You can argue the report -but where the rubber meets the road is whether doctors or providers decide to use them.(bio markers)
The medical industry has a long record of holding off on things that have not been totally proven to work so this may well be a stick in the wheels.

I would use the test if I started pissing blood -and you also have faith in the product (and unlike me,the companies performance) but that doesnt really mean much in the grand scheme of things.

[kiwidollabill]

the American Urological Association in updating its guidelines has said that using urinary bio markers may not be good enough yet to be put in their guidelines

You decide what to make of it.

Im not arguing the data in the report--just simply saying its not a good look for the bio marker companies in terms of getting their foot in the door with commercial success

You can argue the report -but where the rubber meets the road is whether doctors or providers decide to use them.(bio markers)
The medical industry has a long record of holding off on things that have not been totally proven to work so this may well be a stick in the wheels.

I would use the test if I started pissing blood -and you also have faith in the product (and unlike me,the companies performance) but that doesnt really mean much in the grand scheme of things.

A voice of reason.

Things don't bode too well for biotech startups trying to claim more than what can be verified by independent bodies. Just checkout the media train wreck occurring to 'Theranos' at the moment.

[blu3]

After sleeping over it, I still would like to get rid of my current holding but, seeing the big, painful, loss I'm currently sitting on, I would like to see if I can find a better exit timing by any chance.

I do not have any positive expectation regarding the reporting from PEB due end of November, but—would the result from the American Urology Association affect the conclusions for programmes such as KP? If not, hearing of a good news on this side would surely boost the SP a little?

[skid]

After sleeping over it, I still would like to get rid of my current holding but, seeing the big, painful, loss I'm currently sitting on, I would like to see if I can find a better exit timing by any chance.

I do not have any positive expectation regarding the reporting from PEB due end of November, but—would the result from the American Urology Association affect the conclusions for programmes such as KP? If not, hearing of a good news on this side would surely boost the SP a little?

Its the ultimate dilemma blu and if its any comfort,most of us have been there at some point. There are no easy answers --plenty of viewpoints on both sides. The one silver lining is that it can teach a valuable lesson for the future in terms of how to limit losses.
For me it helped by reading the DIL thread all the way through right from the start.
Unfortunately alot of posters have been deleted from this thread so it makes it a bit harder to do that with PEB.--Some shares are riskier than others and Biotecs is one of them. Risk takers can make a bundle and suffer big losses--its all part of the game, as long as you know that is the game you are in--the problem arises when some lead you to believe that your spec share is actually a blue chip and better jump in before it takes off without you.
To tell you to sell up and cut your losses would playing the same game as them and it wouldnt be fair or ethical--its a decision only you can make.
Sometimes shares increase before results as some get excited about what they will bring and often they are preceded by a ''sweetner'' announcement.
Guess in the end its a matter of trying to have your money in a share that will go up,regardless of the amount you have now,in comparison with what you had in the beginning.
If you were just starting out with this amount ,where would you put it ? just my humble opinion

[Balance]

One more day for PEB to announce who their new distributor/partner to replace Healthscope?

These boys like to run things to the wire and then, run into the fence to get entangled.

Haha.

[kiwidollabill]

^Unless they find a minnow I would think Sonic is their only other option?

Not surprised the arrangement with Healthscope has died - the Australian Pathology division has been underperforming for a number of years (compared with the NZ side of the business which does rather well). I imagine the focus was a scramble to get their own house in order rather than to sell CXbladder

[couta1]

After sleeping over it, I still would like to get rid of my current holding but, seeing the big, painful, loss I'm currently sitting on, I would like to see if I can find a better exit timing by any chance.

I do not have any positive expectation regarding the reporting from PEB due end of November, but—would the result from the American Urology Association affect the conclusions for programmes such as KP? If not, hearing of a good news on this side would surely boost the SP a little? If its any consolation I'm currently sitting on a paper loss of 43k in this stock and I don't intend selling any at this point, in fact I wouldn't sell any until I was certain that the company wasn't going to make it (IMO that point is a long way off being determined) If you need the money for some other purpose then things become more pressing for you.

[Crackity]

If its any consolation I'm currently sitting on a paper loss of 43k in this stock and I don't intend selling any at this point, in fact I wouldn't sell any until I was certain that the company wasn't going to make it (IMO that point is a long way off being determined) If you need the money for some other purpose then things become more
pressing for you.

Couta I admire your loyalty and perseverance - what do you think the shares will be worth if the company wasn't going to make it?

[couta1]

Couta I admire your loyalty and perseverance - what do you think the shares will be worth if the company wasn't going to make it?
Probably around 10-15c on a gut feeling.

[Crackity]

Probably around 10-15c.

I hope they succeed but I think the outcome is binary - if it doesn't suceed the share is worth nil - if it does suceed the sky is the limit - again I admire your mindset! Best wishes :)

[nextbigthing]

Maybe the new distribution channel in Australia will be an innovative new website where people can purchase their own tests directly, an exciting development for a company on the verge of success.

[Balance]

Maybe the new distribution channel in Australia will be an innovative new website where people can purchase their own tests directly, an exciting development for a company on the verge of success.

Shhhhh ... DD does not want to you all to know about all those big companies offering to take PEB over.

Do not blame him if you have no shares when it happens - he has generously alerted the market to that possibility several times in the past (something about escaping from the jaws of a predator).

He will be sipping champagne and looking at the crystal blue waters of the Bahamas with his tens of millions while you all go about your daily chores.

[blu3]

skid: thanks, these are some of my thoughts as well—I definitely would like to invest the money in a place that will make me more comfortable but, on the other side, recovering this loss with the money left from PEB (down 40%!) will most likely take a long time if put on other stocks (and if I manage it at all!), whereas each slight move of PEB's SP will have a much greater impact on my portfolio.

Of course, this is a double-edged sword and at this point I consider that any decision to stay in will be more of a gamble than anything else. All I'm wondering is if there's a chance that some sort of hype can still be generated upon positive news coming for example from the KP or other programmes? If yes, this might be worth it for me even if the SP would go back only as far as the $0.6 area, and considering that hopefully most of the damage to the SP on the short/medium term is already done (or is it?) unless some more bad news strike again. If not, and only solid sale numbers can provide a boost to the SP, then I'd rather give up, even though the directors are probably currently picking some predefined sentences to put in their next report to point out how everything looks so exciting.

What's sure is that, with no fundamental reason to back them up, these thoughts of mine don't sound very rational. Maybe is it what despair looks like? :)


couta1: I'm speechless! That's some serious determination against a lot of odds (so far)! :) I hope this will turn out well for you, best of luck!

[BlackPeter]

skid: thanks, these are some of my thoughts as well—I definitely would like to invest the money in a place that will make me more comfortable but, on the other side, recovering this loss with the money left from PEB (down 40%!) will most likely take a long time if put on other stocks (and if I manage it at all!), whereas each slight move of PEB's SP will have a much greater impact on my portfolio.

Of course, this is a double-edged sword and at this point I consider that any decision to stay in will be more of a gamble than anything else. All I'm wondering is if there's a chance that some sort of hype can still be generated upon positive news coming for example from the KP or other programmes? If yes, this might be worth it for me even if the SP would go back only as far as the $0.6 area, and considering that hopefully most of the damage to the SP on the short/medium term is already done (or is it?) unless some more bad news strike again. If not, and only solid sale numbers can provide a boost to the SP, then I'd rather give up, even though the directors are probably currently picking some predefined sentences to put in their next report to point out how everything looks so exciting.

What's sure is that, with no fundamental reason to back them up, these thoughts of mine don't sound very rational. Maybe is it what despair looks like? :)

couta1: I'm speechless! That's some serious determination against a lot of odds (so far)! :) I hope this will turn out well for you, best of luck!


Hi blu3, obviously - I am sure you know what you are doing ... and yes, miracles happen every day. So I guess nobody (certainly not me) can tell you whether the SP will break the downtrend or keep going down.

One thing I find helpful for managing my portfolio: I value any stock at the current price, not at the price for which I purchased it. If I invested (say) 10k and the stock is doing well and doubling (these things happen - my NZR shares are nearly there ... :t_up:, than my consideration is only whether the stock I hold is the best investment for my (now) 20k.

Same if the stock is dropping. If I invest 10k and the stock goes down to half its value, than the only question is - is this stock the best opportunity to invest for my remaining 5k., or is this money better invested in some other stock?

Sometimes the answer is yes, it is (and than I hold) and sometimes the answer is no - and than I sell.

Shares have no memory and they will never return the money they took from you. They might appreciate in value, but in this case they will spread their benefits across all holders, no matter whether you lost money with them before or not.

Which means - it might be better for investors to act in the same way. Take your real money (not the paper value you maybe once had) and invest this value in the best possible stock(s) you can find at the time (obviously remember to diversify and all these things ....).

In my view the only valid reason for holding any stock is if you have a reasonable believe that it will return you (during your selected investment horizon) more money than you invested (and ideally more than other stocks would do). If this is what you think your PEB shares will do, than you should keep you money in PEB or even buy more - hey, if you believe that they can make good a 40% decrease, than you must believe that they can increase by more than 60% ... and not too many other stocks can deliver on that). However - if you are holding PEB just to avoid realising the so called paper losses (which in reality is very real ...), than I am not sure, whether this strategy is the most successful I could think of (assuming your long term objective is to increase your net worth).

Obviously - you can hope for the shares to defy the trend (though some wiser blogger than me said once that hope is no strategy) ... and I am sure that there is some likelihood that PEB might be outrageously successful. Just make sure that you don't forget to put the likelihood into your calculations. If you believe there is a 99% chance for PEB to get back over (say) 60 cents, than I think you definitely should keep the shares ... however, if you believe that there is only a 1% chance for them to get up there again, than maybe not. I suspect that in reality the chance is somewhere in between ...

No offence intended and just my 2 cents. Obviously - if your investment strategy is successful, than please don't change it ...

discl: don't hold ...

[blu3]

Thanks a lot BlackPeter and KW for your inputs!



Hi blu3, obviously - I am sure you know what you are doing

I definitely wouldn't be that sure, and here's the proof below!



One thing I find helpful for managing my portfolio: I value any stock at the current price, not at the price for which I purchased it. If I invested (say) 10k and the stock is doing well and doubling (these things happen - my NZR shares are nearly there ... , than my consideration is only whether the stock I hold is the best investment for my (now) 20k.

Let's be honest, I'm feeling incredibly shameful right now. Upon reading your post and this paragraph in particular of yours, I started to write this: “[...] if you invest (say) 10k in stock A and the SP loses 50%, then if you hold and the SP gains +10%, this will have a much greater impact than if you sold and put the remaining 5k on another stock B that would have also gained 10%.”

This logic always seemed so intuitive to me that I never took the time to double-check it. I've finally did the math and I now realize how wrong I have been. This is actually hard to believe that I've had such a basic/fundamental concept wrong all this time. This is such a big deal, it completely changes the approach to this kind of situation (and probably others).

I'm not too sure how to punish myself yet but I'm hoping that openly sharing my shame might help some fellow newbies out there.

Conclusion: holding PEB now looks MUCH less attractive.


PS: I think I'll just end up writing a program that will automatically buy everything that KW buys! :)

[blu3]

Thanks KW—I've got to say that so far I've been pretty good at buying stocks at the top of the tides just before the way down, and this is a bit how the SRX and MVP charts look like to me a the moment, which freaks me out a bit even though it's not based on anything rational. That being said, the main problem that I recurringly made—thanks partially to my misunderstanding described above—was to hold my positions all the way down instead of selling at a better time. That thread “Using TA to time entries and exits (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits)” of yours is definitly going to be my starting point for my next entry/exit strategies, which should help to fix my previous mistakes. Plus it's something that even me can understand, so thank you again for sharing!

Anyways, it's getting quite out of topic. Sorry about that.

[Baa_Baa]

While we're off topic may I indulge briefly, epiphany is different from theophany, though some may suggest a correlation. Embrace enlightenment as it helps you become a better investor, but there are no gods here, a few guru's but no gods. Embrace the knowledge and acknowledge, even attribute, but do not worship the source. Today's lessons have been profound, for some maybe life changing even. These rare moments on ST are to be cherished, epiphany in the open.

[Crackity]

While we're off topic may I indulge briefly, epiphany is different from theophany, though some may suggest a correlation. Embrace enlightenment as it helps you become a better investor, but there are no gods here, a few guru's but no gods. Embrace the knowledge and acknowledge, even attribute, but do not worship the source. Today's lessons have been profound, for some maybe life changing even. These rare moments on ST are to be cherished, epiphany in the open.

At the risk of being clipped by the senior membaa I note -

According to a handy Sanskrit dictionary from the library, the female equivalent of a guru (गुरु) is a gurvi (गुर्वी).

:) just in case some of our gurus want to change their status ;)

[skid]

While we're off topic may I indulge briefly, epiphany is different from theophany, though some may suggest a correlation. Embrace enlightenment as it helps you become a better investor, but there are no gods here, a few guru's but no gods. Embrace the knowledge and acknowledge, even attribute, but do not worship the source. Today's lessons have been profound, for some maybe life changing even. These rare moments on ST are to be cherished, epiphany in the open.

Too right about the knowledge-Some have put in the ''hard yards'' and a tremendous amount of time researching-everything else is just ''stuff'' (although I can say that KW has been pretty generous with sharing what she has learned,which is commendable)

[Cricketfan]

Interesting....?

http://www.thelatestnews.com/single-drop-of-blood-soon-enough-to-diagnose-most-types-of-cancer/

Peer reviewed article: http://www.cell.com/cancer-cell/abstract/S1535-6108(15)00349-9

[Snow Leopard]

Interesting....?

http://www.thelatestnews.com/single-drop-of-blood-soon-enough-to-diagnose-most-types-of-cancer/

Peer reviewed article: http://www.cell.com/cancer-cell/abstract/S1535-6108(15)00349-9

Yes, interesting. There is a lot of research going on out there which may, or may not, at some point in the future become a product that has the potential to displace existing products.

But until then: It is nearly Movember (https://nz.movember.com/).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[NT001]

FWIW, I'm not over-worried by the Urological Assn's assessment of CxB, given its negativity about biomarker technology overall. From my understanding, Kaiser Permanente has a reputation for making its own assessments notwithstanding whatever pressure may be exerted by the "industry" in its various forms including Big Pharma. It has the resources to do this and as the biggest health operator in the US with thousands of highly qualified staff is not scared to make independent decisions.

[skid]

Kaiser and the AUA work together on alot of projects--I haven't seen any evidence of pressure.However if there is,it would be interesting to see this--Could you please show us?

[NT001]

Nothing specific re the AUA, Skid, just general reading along the lines that KP encourages staff to be open to medical ideas that not regarded as conventional industry-wide and offering them to patients as an option. That's not to suggest they ignore standard practice, but KP is run by its own medical staff who have significant autonomy on a regional basis.

[cammo]

While all this discussion is relevant on general share trading, most of what is discussed doesn't apply to PEB. It is a startup... therefore has no 5 year relevant earnings history (they give lots of the tests away ). KWs theories work well with established companies with real trading history. In contrast, PEB is a bottomless hole currently that is trying to lure both shareholders and customers in. Hopefully the overlap of overzealous nz investors trying to make a product with some merit fly with the big pharma will last until the overseas medical insurance fraternity et al. decide to give it a big tick for use. OR not.

Personally I'm a startup risk lover so peb ticked my box initially although the $ spent into it have moved past a low risk startup and into a lightweight returning performer area, however; the returns aren't there and the time delay required until profitability is dragging on, meaning my $ are probably better pulled out at a loss and dropped quickly into a mine or product that has already started production and are in the start of their growth phase rather than testing continuously. Ditto NTL ...GAFMO (my newly coined sharetrading mnemonic)

[skid]

The bottom line though is whether this process gains enough credibility to be paid for by Medicare or insurance providers--This report has just chipped away at those odds a bit more--but anything can happen. Two things must happen--a glowing report by Kaiser--and the adoption of the test in big numbers (which most likely means it gets covered financially by insurance etc.)
It could ,however achieve enough sales to carry on as a going concern,but not on the level that was hoped for. Wouldnt be great for the SP but would still provide a service.The upcoming numbers will provide a guide as to how they are doing on that front.

Strictly from a patient point of view,that blood test sounds very encouraging and could have the potential to save many lives

Disc. Im under no illusions that big pharma is able to apply pressure and even manipulate things into their favor ranging from lobbying the Gov. to out rite deciet,but normally this dirt shows up on tests sponsored by the companies themselves but we cant rule anything out including Kaiser which is not without controversy once in a while. (I dont think so in this case,but they are a business,and they,like all large businesses, have to listen to their accountants)
Meanwhile,unless the numbers show they are doing fine on their own,most off their eggs are in one basket (kaiser)

[Crackity]

While all this discussion is relevant on general share trading, most of what is discussed doesn't apply to PEB. It is a startup... therefore has no 5 year relevant earnings history (they give lots of the tests away ). KWs theories work well with established companies with real trading history. In contrast, PEB is a bottomless hole currently that is trying to lure both shareholders and customers in. Hopefully the overlap of overzealous nz investors trying to make a product with some merit fly with the big pharma will last until the overseas medical insurance fraternity et al. decide to give it a big tick for use. OR not.

Personally I'm a startup risk lover so peb ticked my box initially although the $ spent into it have moved past a low risk startup and into a lightweight returning performer area, however; the returns aren't there and the time delay required until profitability is dragging on, meaning my $ are probably better pulled out at a loss and dropped quickly into a mine or product that has already started production and are in the start of their growth phase rather than testing continuously. Ditto NTL ...GAFMO (my newly coined sharetrading mnemonic)

Get a flippin move on? Or something similar.....

[skid]

Get a flippin move on? Or something similar.....

Dear Kaiser,
Could you go down to bldg #24,walk down the hallway to room #324 and tell those buggers to get a flippin move on!

[okane]

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/223999.pdf

1H16 lab throughput up just 19% on 2H15.

[ddrone]

Investor update: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/223999.pdf

[Leftfield]

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/223999.pdf

1H16 lab throughput up just 19% on 2H15.

Actually this represents a 185% increase on same period as last year. :)

[Meister]

They did all their growth in the second half of last year. That 185% is misleading now. 19% on the last 6 months is poor in my opinion.

[kiwidollabill]

They did all their growth in the second half of last year. That 185% is misleading now. 19% on the last 6 months is poor in my opinion.

Indeed, that 185% is costed into the 15FY. Alot of 'vanity metrics' in that update

Those lab throughput numbers go
1H15 278%
2H15 140%
1H16 19%

Bit of a worry....

[Crackity]

Indeed, that 185% is costed into the 15FY. Alot of 'vanity metrics' in that update

Those lab throughput numbers go
1H15 278%
2H15 140%
1H16 19%

Bit of a worry....

I always remember the quote of lies, damned lies and statistics....

maybe everything will be fine when they get up to the full complement of 16 sales staff?

[skid]

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/223999.pdf

1H16 lab throughput up just 19% on 2H15.

And they dont say how many are commercial sales and how many are user program tests--surly it would be simple to clarify which was which---draw your own conclusions

[nextbigthing]

I always remember the quote of lies, damned lies and statistics....

maybe everything will be fine when they get up to the full complement of 16 sales staff?

Or maybe, just maybe, for PEB, everything won't be fine at all.

19%. Terrible!

[kiwidollabill]

Unless there has been a MASSIVE shift in lab volume from validation programs (i.e. non-paying) to commercial sales I fear the upcoming report will have some fairly subdued numbers.

Those holders hoping for a quick SP rise to exit with a smaller loss might be best to get out now (unless you want to hold onto the bitter end).

[trader_jackson]

I'll try keep this brief as things are busier than usual for me right now (... but its hard to be quiet with the excitement just around the corner:cool:... well next few years...)

So lets read between the lines and draw some conclusions: (ordered in my view of how 'important' they are)
1. PEB has not yet achieved key 'milestones' (such as the reimbursement for medicare, Federal Supply Schedule approval - I have referenced below to these being "the formalities")
1a PEB have not turned around and said 'we've failed' (like so many posters on here lately seem to think has happened), in fact quite the opposite: they are almost there!
1b The Veterans Administration and Centre for Medicare and Mediaid probably together represent well over 50% (I would think?) of PEB's target market, so as soon as they gain approval (we know the science is already very good) one could argue its 'money in the bank'
1c Although the 19% figure did not sound very impressive, the fact they are still 185% up on last year, despite not having received any approvals for 50+% of their target market is quiet and achievement! (shows people are interested already, even when the 'formalities' are still not 'tidied up')

2. PEB may have been criticized for not providing enough updates (I was one that was leaning this way) and it is a positive step that they have decided to begin a serious of small "Investor Updates". Probably because they are going into a phase where many things (approvals, contracts etc) will be occurring, and hence an investor update is more necessary than before.

3. Some have commented that Pacific Edge is 'trying to cover up its failures in the US' bla bla etc etc by going into Asia more, well it seems the US is still very firmly PEB's focus with at least half the update relating somewhat to the US market

4. Clearly, anyone that knows a growth company, understands they aren't going to break out the technical sales breakdowns and specific numbers 23 days before full year results are announced... I mean they could, but lets not waste shareholders money on making several nice graphs with trend lines and complicated numbers in a overly costly fancy presentation (GeoOp?)... I'd rather they focus on hiring more sales staff....

5. Which brings me to my next 'incremental' point: They have hired more sales staff... and more importantly, they have taken there time to do it and still have 2 more positions available. They haven't 'gone out there' and 'panicked' and hired 6 people as fast as they could - I would see this as a warning sign things really aren't going that well...

6. User programmes, although potentially a little behind schedule, do seem to be doing 'ok' on the whole... like everything in PEB, its going to take a couple more years for things to take off.

7. Quite frankly I see bladdercancer.me as a bit 'wishy washy' but lets see how it pans out, doesn't look like its an expensive website.

As Skid suggests, you can draw your own conclusions as admittedly mine are looking at PEB as a 'glass half full' (or should I say test tube half full?).

Apart from a 'low looking' 19% growth over the previous 6 months (although arguable, they are still processing more tests than ever before, despite 'the formalities' not yet quite finished), there really isn't anything seriously negative in the investor update.

Keep holding, and carry on. :t_up:

[Crackity]

Trader your half full glass is a magic glass as it also appears to be overflowing - your comments almost make me want to dip my toe in at 44c :)

[couta1]

I hold to the bitter or sweet end whichever comes first:cool:

[blobbles]

Trader your half full glass is a magic glass as it also appears to be overflowing - your comments almost make me want to dip my toe in at 44c :)

Wait until the next report, you might get 'em for half price and no less chance of them succeeding.

Of course they could pull VA or Medicare tomorrow. But even if they do, does this mean they will sell? They have been with the other providers for how long and sold how many?

[trader_jackson]

Wait until the next report, you might get 'em for half price and no less chance of them succeeding.

Of course they could pull VA or Medicare tomorrow. But even if they do, does this mean they will sell? They have been with the other providers for how long and sold how many?

I'm not expecting amazing sales figures in the next report, and investors have already more than priced this in... its cheaper than when it was before the ambitious $100m targets and other, smaller, but still significant, approvals were announced in 2013, yet so much more good has happened since then so... draw your own conclusions, but it is easy to argue, the share price has already been hammered enough... so the chance of them being half price come the end of trading on November 26 is unlikely (in my view).

It probably does mean they would sell more, its certainly not like: because they get approval for more than 50% of there target market, which as you mention is probably going to 'happen sooner rather than later'... they are "suddenly going to sell less" that's for sure...

[Meister]

its cheaper than when it was before the ambitious $100m targets and other, smaller, but still significant, approvals were announced in 2013, yet so much more good has happened since then so... draw your own conclusions, but it is easy to argue, the share price has already been hammered enough... so the chance of them being half price come the end of trading on November 26 is unlikely (in my view).

I am too lazy to work out if it is actually cheaper given there have been a few rights issues since then, but the company is currently valued at $167M at this share price. That is a high valuation for a company that has yet to make a profit, had $2M in sales revenue last FY ($4M total) and whose growth appears to be rapidly slowing.

I sold out recently, at a loss, after becoming quite disillusioned. Wish I had had some key revelations earlier. I like the product, and can always buy back in if everything looks positive. Right now it doesn't, and worst case it may be hard to sell when the buyers dry up after another disappointing result.

[NZSilver]

looks like this has more chance of having negative shareholder return than anything positive at this stage. A very risky investment.

[skid]

I'll try keep this brief as things are busier than usual for me right now (... but its hard to be quiet with the excitement just around the corner:cool:... well next few years...)

So lets read between the lines and draw some conclusions: (ordered in my view of how 'important' they are)
1. PEB has not yet achieved key 'milestones' (such as the reimbursement for medicare, Federal Supply Schedule approval - I have referenced below to these being "the formalities")
1a PEB have not turned around and said 'we've failed' (like so many posters on here lately seem to think has happened), in fact quite the opposite: they are almost there!
1b The Veterans Administration and Centre for Medicare and Mediaid probably together represent well over 50% (I would think?) of PEB's target market, so as soon as they gain approval (we know the science is already very good) one could argue its 'money in the bank'
1c Although the 19% figure did not sound very impressive, the fact they are still 185% up on last year, despite not having received any approvals for 50+% of their target market is quiet and achievement! (shows people are interested already, even when the 'formalities' are still not 'tidied up')

2. PEB may have been criticized for not providing enough updates (I was one that was leaning this way) and it is a positive step that they have decided to begin a serious of small "Investor Updates". Probably because they are going into a phase where many things (approvals, contracts etc) will be occurring, and hence an investor update is more necessary than before.

3. Some have commented that Pacific Edge is 'trying to cover up its failures in the US' bla bla etc etc by going into Asia more, well it seems the US is still very firmly PEB's focus with at least half the update relating somewhat to the US market

4. Clearly, anyone that knows a growth company, understands they aren't going to break out the technical sales breakdowns and specific numbers 23 days before full year results are announced... I mean they could, but lets not waste shareholders money on making several nice graphs with trend lines and complicated numbers in a overly costly fancy presentation (GeoOp?)... I'd rather they focus on hiring more sales staff....

5. Which brings me to my next 'incremental' point: They have hired more sales staff... and more importantly, they have taken there time to do it and still have 2 more positions available. They haven't 'gone out there' and 'panicked' and hired 6 people as fast as they could - I would see this as a warning sign things really aren't going that well...

6. User programmes, although potentially a little behind schedule, do seem to be doing 'ok' on the whole... like everything in PEB, its going to take a couple more years for things to take off.

7. Quite frankly I see bladdercancer.me as a bit 'wishy washy' but lets see how it pans out, doesn't look like its an expensive website.

As Skid suggests, you can draw your own conclusions as admittedly mine are looking at PEB as a 'glass half full' (or should I say test tube half full?).

Apart from a 'low looking' 19% growth over the previous 6 months (although arguable, they are still processing more tests than ever before, despite 'the formalities' not yet quite finished), there really isn't anything seriously negative in the investor update.

Keep holding, and carry on. :t_up:

PEB has crossed plenty of ''milestones'' (big outfits have signed up)with disappointing results so far. It seems that Kaiser is the big hope that everyone with a half full glass is waiting for,but now there is real doubt that IF they ''approve'' it will just be another test with mediocre sales (if the others are anything to go by)--We now have 2 other things in the mix 1-There has been doubt cast on the urine bio marker tests in general by the URA and 2-The ''gold standard'' (of urine bio tests)has faded somewhat because there is now a new kid in town (still 2 yrs off,but there) the blood test that appears to be the new Gold standard--(you've gotta admit its looking pretty impressive)

''PEB have not turned around and said we've failed'' Beg Pardon?(You've gotta be joking)..meanwhile ,how much of that 160mil valuation is made up of money they just got from the cap raising (you do the maths)

So they are 185% up on lab tests from last year and since then ,they are participating in a large user program ,giving free tests.

''Any growth company is not going to give away their technical sales 23 days before...''-so the question that comes to mind is why bother with the update to begin with? Giving a bunch of information you cant decipher is is a bit useless.

You may doubt that the SP will go down much more before the results but I would venture to guess that you would have doubted it would have gotten to this level when you bought-(If you tell us when ,we can figure out the %)

The user program is not potentially behind schedule--It IS behind schedule (by alot)--How does it seem to be doing ''ok''on the whole--(we dont know anything about it)

The fact that it may be cheaper now than when they more or less started is a matter that can be interpreted in a number of ways--before it was a clean slate --the sky was the limit -potential galore with some big outfits signing up-Wow!---but now alot of urine has gone under the bridge (well,maybe not enough urine) and things are generally not looking so good (and they have gotten a sizable handout with the cap raising) so the track record is not looking so flash--Things are depending on more and more hopeful ''have faiths''

If you want to hold on to what you have left ,by all means do so,but those could be excused for deciding that a little is better than less than a little---and for those thinking of buying big,you had better do some serious homework.--This is not a share to bet the farm on.
There has been a serious readjustment of the odds.

Your glass (or test tube )may be half full,but it is looking more likely it has a crack in the bottom

[blobbles]

Falling through the floor today is a distinct possibility by the looks of things...

[OldGuy]

Just got out for a spectacular 6-figure loss.

[Crackity]

[QUOTE=blobbles;596172]Falling through the floor today is a distinct possibility by the looks of things...[/QUOTE

yes - floor joists look pretty termite ridden

[whatsup]

So Dr wheres the $100 mil T O in 3 years programme now looking ?

[OldGuy]

This "company" is an absolute joke. Gutted that I got caught up in the hype, not least the Chairman's public statement regarding "several tens of thousands of tests."

Total disgrace. Best of luck to all those that still believe "the story."

[blobbles]

This "company" is an absolute joke. Gutted that I got caught up in the hype, not least the Chairman's public statement regarding "several tens of thousands of tests."

Total disgrace. Best of luck to all those that still believe "the story."

That is a very emotional response and probably rightly so considering your situation.

However they could still succeed, let's not write them off completely. Head winds are getting stronger though...

[Toasty]

Just got out for a spectacular 6-figure loss.

Ouch. I was pained by my small four figure disaster. I hope other investments dull the pain.

[Balance]

Capitulation in progress - the diehard believers are panicking out of their beloved illusion.

Money to be made.

I am in at 40c for a trade.

Loving this!

:D :D :)

[psychic]

Capitulation in progress - the diehard believers are panicking out of their beloved illusion.

Money to be made.

I am in at 40c for a trade.

Loving this!

:D :D :)

Sad, sad little man. Says it all really. May karma bite you on the ass champ.

[Balance]

Sad, sad little man. Says it all really. May karma bite you on the ass champ.

Plenty of warnings were given and ignored.

Karma is indeed in action?

[Balance]

Falling through the floor today is a distinct possibility by the looks of things...

The floor is 40c in the interim.

A lot of blood on the floor however and that is the classic situation for traders to make another killing.

[kiwidollabill]

At what SP will they roll DD?

[Baa_Baa]

The floor is 40c in the interim.

A lot of blood on the floor however and that is the classic situation for traders to make another killing.

Assuming it doesn't go lower, which is quite an assumption.

[Balance]

At what SP will they roll DD?

The 3 big institutional shareholders, 'conned' into underwriting the last rights issue and now with egg all over their faces when they face their investors, will be sharpening the knife.

Their fault, really, for not making sure that the directors and management participated in the capital raising but that is a given in most capital raisings - that the directors put their money where their mouths are.

Meanwhile, tens of millions of dollars have been lost as the company fail to deliver on the tens of thousands of tests.

[stoploss]

The 3 big institutional shareholders, 'conned' into underwriting the last rights issue and now with egg all over their faces when they face their investors, will be sharpening the knife.

Their fault, really, for not making sure that the directors and management participated in the capital raising but that is a given in most capital raisings - that the directors put their money where their mouths are.

Meanwhile, tens of millions of dollars have been lost as the company fail to deliver on the tens of thousands of tests.

Quite right Balance surprised you are buying ....what if one of the insto's bails ........

[Balance]

Quite right Balance surprised you are buying ....what if one of the insto's bails ........

No worries about them. They are so donkey deep they cannot get out even if they wanted to without completely thrashing the sp.

Just needs a few more millions of dollars (compared to the tens of millions of dollars already invested by them) now to mop up the panic-stricken capitulating holders, at the lower sp to support the sp and give their funds performances a boost.

[couta1]

Just got out for a spectacular 6-figure loss.
Condolences mate I know what a six figure loss feels like, I'm sure you will more than make it up over time with the likes of Sum, cheers

[couta1]

Capitulation in progress - the diehard believers are panicking out of their beloved illusion.

Money to be made.

I am in at 40c for a trade.

Loving this!

:D :D :)
Despicable attitude here, go ahead and trade but why enjoy rubbing salt in the wounds of those that have suffered losses?

[Crackity]

Despicable attitude here, go ahead and trade but why enjoy rubbing salt in the wounds of those that have suffered losses?

Totally agree Couta

[Longhaul]

Despicable attitude here, go ahead and trade but why enjoy rubbing salt in the wounds of those that have suffered losses?

Because Balance is a little child trapped in an adults body. Poor Balance.

[OldGuy]

Condolences mate I know what a six figure loss feels like, I'm sure you will more than make it up over time with the likes of Sum, cheers

Cheers mate. All good, I am still well up overall. SUM and RYM have been very good to me over the last few years :)

[Balance]

Sp has bounced back to 42 cents as expected.

For those who are interested in observing and studying investing psychology, PEB sp action today exhibits the classic capitulation trade opportunity.

[winner69]

Sp has bounced back to 42 cents as expected.

For those who are interested in observing and studying investing psychology, PEB sp action today exhibits the classic capitulation trade opportunity.

Agree there mate

Could be fun times over the few weeks / months. Traders will be having some fun

Last big capitulation on the NZX when punters ditched ATM at 46 cents ....where is it now.

[trader_jackson]

Things to take away from today (because it isn't over yet)
- Retail shareholders bailing at losses, some of which are big

- No institutions or major shareholders (ie the people who have actually been to the meeting and spoken face to face with these people, and probably understand the company better than any of us on here, and [finally] don't have some sort of personal issue with "DD") have not sold out (yet), this is despite them being some of 'the big' losers

- The retail shareholder is unsure of PEB future, worried about adverse results in 22 days time, and has generally lost confidence (fair enough)

- Along with retail panic, emotion is begging to play a part (understandable)

- Forsyth Barr have produced another report (before market open) pricing the shares at $1, with continued backing of the science and the overall business model (although notes things that are largely out of PEB's control are progressing a bit slower than expected)

- Irrational (emotional?) comments like "the diehard believers are panicking out of their beloved illusion" (diehard believers lol, you mean the quick buck hopefuls?) and "At what SP will they roll DD?" have begun... the very comments that lead to the people who understood PEB the most, leaving the thread for others to squabble in

[winner69]

from t_j-
Forsyth Barr have produced another report (before market open) pricing the shares at $1, with continued backing of the science and the overall business model (although notes things that are largely out of PEB's control are progressing a bit slower than expected)

Thought that would have been a catalyst for the share price to go up

Mind you $1 is a bit lower than previously isn't it?

[Crackity]

Thought that would have been a catalyst for the share price to go up

Mind you $1 is a bit lower than previously isn't it?

maybe Forsyth Barr would like to update their Feltex and Credit Sails valuations too? :)

[Balance]

maybe Forsyth Barr would like to update their Feltex and Credit Sails valuations too? :)

And Forsyth Barr's MD will of course deny they ever profited or were ever even involved in the marketing of the stock as a good investment!

He will never live down the 'we catch more flies with honey than vinegar' - caught with his pants down after screwing investors.

[okane]

And after all that finishes the day down 0.005 cents.

Another boring day on the stockmarket.

[Balance]

And after all that finishes the day down 0.005 cents.

Another boring day on the stockmarket.

Wish there were more boring days like this then!

A lot happened between the panic which swept through some of the 'capitulators' today and the observers and investors/traders who bought off them - a nice 10% movement.

[Crackity]

Wish there were more boring days like this then!

A lot happened between the panic which swept through some of the 'capitulators' today and the smart observers who bought off them cheap.

schadenfreude - never an attractive look Balance

[kiora]

schadenfreude - never an attractive look Balance

I learned a new word today.Thanks Crackity:)

[Balance]

Ships do not sink because of the water around them. They sink when water gets in them.

So do not let what is happening around you, get into you.

Control your emotions. :D :D :D

[trader_jackson]

Well the day is over now and I think its a bit unfortunate those who sold out at 0.40 and the like, emotion clearly clouded some peoples judgement.

Days like this are not foreign to PEB, in fact I think I remember another quite distinctive day where retail investors fled for the high hills (for unknown reasons - like today), share price was down dramatically (high single digit % losses I think, not quite 10+) and then recovered to finish either inline, or slightly below. I think it then emerged a few days later an institution had been capitalizing on the panicked retail investors.

As I've said before, and will say it again, in my view, if you want a clear(er) picture, just wait another 22 days, then 'make your bets'.

[pak]

The chartests out there may be able to correct me, but to me this is still a continuation of the downtrend we've seen for the last year. The trend hasnt broken out of the tram lines of continous lower highers and lower lows. Capitulation and dispair could still be just around the corner. But how can you truly pick that. Bad Financials in the coming report could be another trigger. I would like to see PEB succeed but they really do need some good news or this down trend is likely to continue. Hope they can pull something out the bag in the coming weeks.

[skid]

The chartests out there may be able to correct me, but to me this is still a continuation of the downtrend we've seen for the last year. The trend hasnt broken out of the tram lines of continous lower highers and lower lows. Capitulation and dispair could still be just around the corner. But how can you truly pick that. Bad Financials in the coming report could be another trigger. I would like to see PEB succeed but they really do need some good news or this down trend is likely to continue. Hope they can pull something out the bag in the coming weeks.

I agree Pak. In the end all we can do is look at what has happened-look at the numbers,and form an opinion on where we think the company is going.
Most want PEB to succeed and many still think there is a good chance that will happen-Others want PEB to succeed but feel they have dropped the ball and respond to posts that they feel may lead some investors down the road to loss.
Most think or hope their input will educate others (although both sides cant be right)--I have my opinion as do others,but I would like to distance myself from those that have a third motive which has only to do with personal gain by any means.
There is no inside information Gurus out there IMO.
We can take guesses but none of us know exactly what the instos are up to--Our time is better spent looking at the company.
Everything is an education and its easy to want to get into a slagging match but in the end,we decide who to give credibility to. the best we can do is take note, and remember.

Nothing to do with you Pak--just needed to get it off my chest

[nextbigthing]

Isn't hiring more sales staff just like putting more wood on a fire that isn't burning? Why don't they try a new approach! Also, they could have all the salespeople in the world, but if the American health system is the problem with its reluctance to change, then they're never going to crack it like this.

[Baa_Baa]

The chartests out there may be able to correct me, but to me this is still a continuation of the downtrend we've seen for the last year. The trend hasnt broken out of the tram lines of continous lower highers and lower lows. Capitulation and dispair could still be just around the corner. But how can you truly pick that. Bad Financials in the coming report could be another trigger. I would like to see PEB succeed but they really do need some good news or this down trend is likely to continue. Hope they can pull something out the bag in the coming weeks.

The chart is ugly (weekly). Someone mentioned capitulation, on the chart that is a 100% retrace of the move up from Oct 2013. Yesterday the SP did fall below support and then recovered, so there's a slightly good sign. Otherwise it's still a falling knife and you can see where the other technical support lines are below here. Without something stupendous from PEB, there's no reason that the chart says to expect a SP recovery, other than as someone mentioned a technical trade off the bottom of the 100% fib retrace.

7707

[Leftfield]

Isn't hiring more sales staff just like putting more wood on a fire that isn't burning? Why don't they try a new approach! Also, they could have all the salespeople in the world, but if the American health system is the problem with its reluctance to change, then they're never going to crack it like this.

Anyone reviewing this forum and PEB's releases will be aware that crucial results re PEB's USA penetration will not be due until end 2015 to mid 2016. Until that time it is easy to give up on PEB (and the price graphs reflect this negative trend,) however many are happy to hold and be patient. Those buying at recent lows can take heart that they are buying at a rate lower than several esteemed institutions did recently in the capital raising, and they are not alone in seeing potential upside….(however risky this may be.)

Until we get more news PEB remains risky (and the graph shows it sliding.) Disc PEB is the lone red mark in my portfolio (mildly so,) however, I see long term potential and am prepared to wait. I've also been nibbling at current low prices.

[OldGuy]

You have to ask yourself why they published this information so close to the HY results, at which time they could have included this information as well. I very strongly suspect the HY financials will be even worse than the slowdown in throughput suggests. i.e. costs are still rising while output is stagnating, so the loss is likely to be even bigger than the market expects (IMH0)

Either way, nice to be out of this!

[Biscuit]

This is such an interesting thread. Nearly a thousand pages, covering ten years of this company's life. The posters at the start are a different bunch than the posters now. Some of those early posters probably made a packet from the share price appreciation at one time. To judge by the posts, the company (I know virtually nothing about this company) is still in the same position of murky outlook and hope as it was at the beginning. What lessons have been gleaned over ten years? Companies with the potential to excite are probably worth buying when no one is particularly interested in them as share prices respond when they do start generating a lot of hope and expectation. I guess the question now is whether there is likely to be another "cycle of excitement"?

[Hoop]

The chartests out there may be able to correct me, but to me this is still a continuation of the downtrend we've seen for the last year. The trend hasnt broken out of the tram lines of continous lower highers and lower lows. Capitulation and dispair could still be just around the corner. But how can you truly pick that. Bad Financials in the coming report could be another trigger. I would like to see PEB succeed but they really do need some good news or this down trend is likely to continue. Hope they can pull something out the bag in the coming weeks.

Pak ..I have highlighted the important part...PEB is indeed in a continous downtrend..
The old investing rule says..."do not buy and hold downtrending stocks"..This is highlighted because the majority of people break this rule..Experienced investors can make good profits with short term "ins and outs" but they are not breaking this rule
Another Basic Rule... Do not average down in continuous downtrending stocks...This is not highlighted because its common sense ..eh?

So...with the disciplined adherence of the 2 rules mentioned above..an investor does not need to waste time and money predicting capitulation waves...

[dumbfounded]

Dear all - have enjoyed reading the posts for a while and thanks everyone for contributing...first time posting :). I am puzzled with the negative comments on PEB's recent announcement. Is it really THAT bad? Am I missing something? It says: 1H16 up 19% on previous 6 months and 185% on the same 6 months on previous year. This tells me that the # of tests have increased (19% & an impressive 185%). It also says lab throughput has stepped up in Sept and Oct (and July and Aug are seasonal downturn). The latter appears to signal that they will have increase tests for the next 6 months over the same period which means test for 2016 will be more than 2015. And, without signing new "group". To me, it is moving in the right direction, just like any young company (e.g BLT)

It seems that you guys are expecting much better increase but why? We know that it is not easy to convince the medics to take up the tests quickly. We know they have not increase their "salepeople" tremendously. We know they are not selling iphone or something like that. Indeed one has to be cautious abt new technology and esp. when people's life are involved. We got to make sure the test is "good". If so, why be so critical? PEB did not say they have signed up new groups and if so, why would this increase be interpreted so badly (well, maybe not that good but surely not that bad - at least there are more, not less or stagnant). I am just being puzzled by all the negative comments (not including those who, for some reasons, just being so critical about this stock). Did I miss something...about the growth?

Discl: Holder of PEB and increased holdings recently.

[stoploss]

Dear all - have enjoyed reading the posts for a while and thanks everyone for contributing...first time posting :). I am puzzled with the negative comments on PEB's recent announcement. Is it really THAT bad? Am I missing something? It says: 1H16 up 19% on previous 6 months and 185% on the same 6 months on previous year. This tells me that the # of tests have increased (19% & an impressive 185%). It also says lab throughput has stepped up in Sept and Oct (and July and Aug are seasonal downturn). The latter appears to signal that they will have increase tests for the next 6 months over the same period which means test for 2016 will be more than 2015. And, without signing new "group". To me, it is moving in the right direction, just like any young company (e.g BLT)

It seems that you guys are expecting much better increase but why? We know that it is not easy to convince the medics to take up the tests quickly. We know they have not increase their "salepeople" tremendously. We know they are not selling iphone or something like that. Indeed one has to be cautious abt new technology and esp. when people's life are involved. We got to make sure the test is "good". If so, why be so critical? PEB did not say they have signed up new groups and if so, why would this increase be interpreted so badly (well, maybe not that good but surely not that bad - at least there are more, not less or stagnant). I am just being puzzled by all the negative comments (not including those who, for some reasons, just being so critical about this stock). Did I miss something...about the growth?

Discl: Holder of PEB and increased holdings recently.

I think the crux of the point here is those numbers might be up . However are they PAID tests ? No point in the numbers being up if it is just for giveaways and user groups testing it .

[Biscuit]

To me, it is moving in the right direction, just like any young company (e.g BLT) Did I miss something...about the growth?



"Youth" and "growth" are relative terms. One question to ask (don't ask me, I don't know - look in the prospectus/annual reports) is whether or not the company is delivering the growth they promised. Ten years or so is a reasonably long time-frame to judge whether they can deliver on their promises.

[couta1]

dumbfounded welcome aboard, you can now expect numerous lectures in response to your post plus a bit of the nasties to boot. You have well identified that this is a slow boat to China as are all startup products in the medical arena that require numerous boxes to be ticked along the way but you obviously believe in the ultimate success of the company and its products so stick with your conviction, there will always be knockers some genuine and some not.

[Balance]

Did I miss something...about the growth?




Share price tells you all you want to know about the growth. 10000% growth of tests 'sold' for nothing = No growth. Any donkey can grow sales by offering products, services etc for free.

[Snow Leopard]

Dear all - have enjoyed reading the posts for a while and thanks everyone for contributing...first time posting :). I am puzzled with the negative comments on PEB's recent announcement. Is it really THAT bad? Am I missing something? It says: 1H16 up 19% on previous 6 months and 185% on the same 6 months on previous year. This tells me that the # of tests have increased (19% & an impressive 185%). It also says lab throughput has stepped up in Sept and Oct (and July and Aug are seasonal downturn). The latter appears to signal that they will have increase tests for the next 6 months over the same period which means test for 2016 will be more than 2015. And, without signing new "group". To me, it is moving in the right direction, just like any young company (e.g BLT)...

Grab your newsletter and look at those blue laboratory throughput bars.
Now lets draw an horizontal line across each bar, above we colour white for the good tests that someone has paid for and generates profit and below we colour black for the not-so-good 'freebie' tests that are an expense.

The question your are now asking is "where do we draw those lines?"

and the most important question of "where do we do draw that dividing line on the right most bar?"

and the answers are that:

we have a range of possible places for the first three bars (based on the ratio of sales revenue in prior accounts)

and

absolutely no idea at all where to run the pencil across the most recent one.

Sales may have doubled, tripled, quadrupled, stayed the same or halved or...

That continued uncertainty appears to have spooked enough people.

As for the rest of the newsletter, well...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

dumbfounded welcome aboard, you can now expect numerous lectures in response to your post plus a bit of the nasties to boot. You have well identified that this is a slow boat to China as are all startup products in the medical arena that require numerous boxes to be ticked along the way but you obviously believe in the ultimate success of the company and its products so stick with your conviction, there will always be knockers some genuine and some not.

Im sure Couts will be happy to show you his credentials to back up his post.
If you look back you will see that PEB was not always a slow boat to china,but now it appears to be..Is that good enough to achieve their goal?
As you have seen ,some have genuine doubts about where PEB is going (I have already clarified my views on the not so genuine)
As has been stated,to do valid research you need to know how many of the tests were paid. When you determine this (hopefully in the next report,you can then determine for yourself if these numbers represent the growth needed to make this a profitable investment.
Slow growth may get you by if you are lucky and got in at a very low SP,but the clock is ticking and other (and better by the sound of it)products will catch up and this could then leave this product in the doldrums.
You have asked the question and have gotten some answers --now its time for some DYOR

[Balance]

Im sure Couts will be happy to show you his credentials to back up his post.
If you look back you will see that PEB was not always a slow boat to china,but now it appears to be..Is that good enough to achieve their goal?
As you have seen ,some have genuine doubts about where PEB is going (I have already clarified my views on the not so genuine)
As has been stated,to do valid research you need to know how many of the tests were paid. When you determine this (hopefully in the next report,you can then determine for yourself if these numbers represent the growth needed to make this a profitable investment.
Slow growth may get you by if you are lucky and got in at a very low SP,but the clock is ticking and other (and better by the sound of it)products will catch up and this could then leave this product in the doldrums.
You have asked the question and have gotten some answers --now its time for some DYOR

DYOR? Not going to happen. In the land of the blind, the one eye man is KING.

[dumbfounded]

Thanks you to all who responded to my post and esp. the welcome from Couta1! Skid - I don't need him to show me his credentials; I have enjoyed reading his posting very much and others such as Roger, Tiger, Snoopy, and so many others. This is a great site; all things considered ;). On a more serious note:

stoploss - paid test is of course better but if nobody interested in the test would be worst; don't you think so? So, there might be a point of having lots of tests, paid or not paid.

couta1 - I prefer not to think of it as a slow boat but a ferrari at the traffic light. It slows down because of the light and not because it itself is slow!

Balance - but SP can be wrong; it shot up to very high last time and that doesn't equate to strong growth. Here is very I think DYOR is important - to know if it is truly growing and to have confidence or not with the company.

to be continue....got to go now; wife asking to take a walk with our cat. :p

[dumbfounded]

PT - dead right but then my puzzlement is why people are freaking out abt the report. At least, PEB is consistent; that was how they displayed it in the past, rightly or wrongly. Thanks Skid for your advice; much appreciated. Happy trading everyone and may we all pocket $$s here and there!

[Hoop]

Don't call me old Hoop :p

By the time PEB's slow boat gets to China you will be old mate;):D

[nextbigthing]

Since we're boat analogies, keep in mind Couta that some boats do unfortunately sink before getting to their destination, leaving the treasure (IP) to be recovered by treasure hunters (Big Pharmaceuticals etc).

[skid]

Thanks you to all who responded to my post and esp. the welcome from Couta1! Skid - I don't need him to show me his credentials; I have enjoyed reading his posting very much and others such as Roger, Tiger, Snoopy, and so many others. This is a great site; all things considered ;). On a more serious note:

stoploss - paid test is of course better but if nobody interested in the test would be worst; don't you think so? So, there might be a point of having lots of tests, paid or not paid.

couta1 - I prefer not to think of it as a slow boat but a ferrari at the traffic light. It slows down because of the light and not because it itself is slow!

Balance - but SP can be wrong; it shot up to very high last time and that doesn't equate to strong growth. Here is very I think DYOR is important - to know if it is truly growing and to have confidence or not with the company.

to be continue....got to go now; wife asking to take a walk with our cat. :p

dBF--Im getting the impression that you are looking for confirmation that you have made the right decision on your investment rather than objective consideration.
If thats the case -best of luck--Of course ,no one knows the future--We can only use what has happened so far to draw conclusions about the possibilities of what will happen.

However I dont think your conclusions are very realistic.
You dont need credentials to enjoy reading someones posts ,but it certainly comes in handy when making decisions on how you invest your money.--Hoop and KW have an enviable track record and Coutts(bless his soul) has racked up three figure losses(according to him)
No offence to Coutts but this is your dosh.

Your response to stop loss is that ''it could be worse'' Is that a solid conclusion to think of a share as a ferrari about to take off--(the free tests are no guarantee of a successful result,and a successful result is no guarantee of successful sales.

The SP shot up last time on hype,not growth--Are you banking on that hype again? (agree though you should do whatever research you can,including the competition) I spent alot of time at one point looking for signs of PEB being mentioned in any US reports from any of the mainstream sources. Now their name is starting to come up,but unfortunately the latest mention is related to the fact that the AUA is doubting the extent of the validity of bio markers in general--rightly or wrongly--not a good look (we are trying to sell a product here)

Are you feeling that things have been going well,and just needs that little push to achieve big time sales or is it looking like something is needed to pull the company back from the brink after a line of disappointments --Its your dosh,you be the judge.

Disc-not holding and dont plan to buy as long as its on this course so have no reason to talk the price down for personal gain.
If they do however turn things around I will be the first to acknowledge and will then reconsider and will be content to give up early gains
in exchange for the knowledge they have established a better track record.

PS-Analogies have never, to my knowledge, been a sound guideline for an investing strategy.

[GR8DAY]

.......and more common than you realize for boats to hit sandbars at lowtide only to have to wait a bit for the tide to come back in before they can head off again.......the treasure still on board, the crew still in control but vow to never let that happen again.......a lucky escape, could have been rocks. The skipper looks relieved but is keen to blame someone then realizes it happened on his watch. Bit of a wake call he thinks to himself.....s*ite better get the old An2G before there's a mutiny.

Anyway I prefer that analogy to your fatal version NBT.........but then again that sandbar may just have been hiding those rocks till the real storm hits ah??

Not holding but watching/waiting.

[dumbfounded]

Thanks Skid - really appreciate your comments and showing concerns. Apology I gave you the wrong impression - I invested in Peb b4 the hype and rise in SP. I made the mistake of waiting for the last group to confirm b4 selling. Lesson learned: need to analyze the customer of the company instead of blindly waiting for them to come on board; they may never arrive! I sold some on its way down and bought some at the bottom.

When making decisions, I judge the soundness of the reasons given irrespective of who is giving it. An idiot may have an inside info and that is invaluable. I don't believe in someone's credentials. One's past experience is no guarantee for future success in investment. Look at how many advisors got things wrong. I judge on the arguments given, not on the person giving it. Coutts made known he lost 3 figures but he might have made gains 10x elsewhere.

My analogy that PEB is a ferrari waiting to take off is because it has proven itself - its SP shot up TREMENDOUSLY! This is a fact and to me, it has potential. Does it matter what reasons as long as the SP goes up? However, could it still go up, hype or no hype? Well, we know the KP tests and Medicare are ongoing. Don't you agree if both take up PEB test, the SP could go up to a $1? If so, that is 200+% increase on current price. The potential is there but like ANY other business, whether it gets there is another matter. From memory, the AUA report is based on some past data and PEB is not included in many of its comparisons. I don't believe it has the final word on the use of bio-markers. To judge PEB's business based on one study is to have too much faith in Science. Science is always on the edge of discovery.

If its SP did not go crazy and DD did not make that claim, then PEB is progressing like any other tech stock. It is growing perhaps too slow for some (again think of BLT). The disappointments are the unrealistics goals set to attract investors. Sure if you invest based on those numbers, you will be disappointed. If you invest based on the potential, then you will patiently wait on. In either situation, one can call it quit within one's time frame.

I am not arguing for PEB and no doubt it is a risky investment. I think we all know the latter. I hate discussions via writings 'cos it often cause misunderstandings. SKID - I truly appreciate and value your comments and the above is NOT TO ARGUE AGAINST your view. I really appreciate it and please take the above as a conversation among like-minded people, all aiming to make some $ from our investment. Who is right or wrong does not matter if we all end up making money:t_up:

[Biscuit]

The disappointments are the unrealistics goals set to attract investors.

Is that ok?

[skid]

Is that ok?

I suppose to be fair their unrealistic goals may have been genuine due to inexperience rather than for the purpose of attracting investors,although the infamous 100s of(well,you know the rest)quote makes one wonder.

I think with the AUA statements its useless to debate whether they are right. its the effect that is the issue and it could influence KPs decisions on the matter.
Lots of big Pharma companies are merging at this point in time.Each time that happens they get stronger and have more clout(for better or worse) Unless PEB is part of one of these(well..a takeover) then it becomes weaker as a single company (companies push through a package deal with discounts) It kind of sucks, but it is business after all and in many cases its a war,even if lives are at risk.
But for me,the real threat (business-wise)is from a better product coming along,especially if it is snapped up by a large outfit(-its better for humanity though if a better test comes along,so we cant use the moral high ground argument) (imagine getting 1 blood test that tells you if you have any signs of a number of cancers!)
We have been shocked and gotten used to each breach --Is the low 40s the new norm? (or will we be shocked again into the 30s) Not till after the results is my guess either way, up or down.

FORBAR--If you turn the chart upside down from when they made their call,you would be about right on target.

[winner69]

dumbfounded - The disappointments are the unrealistics goals set to attract investors

Once suggested it might have been a con - should have read the responses back then.

But PEB been a great share to me

[kiwidollabill]

Just caught up with someone who also engages with PEB on a business basis.

Their description of head office and the lab reflects my previous comments. Unless the US pulls something out of their backside in 2 years we are either looking at liquidation or another cap raise.

[Biscuit]

I suppose to be fair their unrealistic goals may have been genuine due to inexperience rather than for the purpose of attracting investors,although the infamous 100s of(well,you know the rest)quote makes one wonder.


I've previously been involved in start-up biotech companies from the science side (not PEB). Amazing how determined investors can be to hold onto "the vision" in the face of millions down the gurgler and no really credible commercial prospects. Not saying that is necessarily PEB.

[Schrodinger]

Couple of points:
Their implied valuation based on the calcs/research is meaningless.

Investors basing their decisions on said valuation/research that isn't actually research aren't investing but outsourcing valuable decisions to third parties who can't value export businesses

I will clarify what I mean by research: not a word by word copy paste from the company and how everyone is falling over themselves to part with their money, but objective and well thought out analysis of market realities they are facing in trying to export this to make a return for said investors.

This made me go back to the poster who quoted her "analysis" and how much she's knows about the company. That isn't research. A company valuation and therefore broker/bankers valuations are and should be how they scale this in an "export" market to get the implied market cap valuation. Now tell me how the said research is going to answer that question or even investigate the opportunity.

That is a report I would pay for.

Hey Miner how's things. Just checking in to see if you remembered to send Chelsea flowers and chocolates for her insightful analysis of PEB back in Feb? You are obviously tuned into this sector well and I hope you can provide me and other readers guidance on how to invest.

Best wishes.

[kiwidollabill]

I've previously been involved in start-up biotech companies from the science side (not PEB). Amazing how determined investors can be to hold onto "the vision" in the face of millions down the gurgler and no really credible commercial prospects. Not saying that is necessarily PEB.

Were you in Genesis?

[Biscuit]

Were you in Genesis?

No, nothing publicly listed. I remember a very upbeat talk by the guy behind Genesis (cant remember his name) he gave at a University at a time when much investor money had already gone up in a puff of smoke with no return. No mention was made about that, just focus on the next big idea. Buying marginal land for biofuel crops, if I remember correctly - anyone know how that played out?

[Snow Leopard]

Were you in Genesis?


No, nothing publicly listed. I remember a very upbeat talk by the guy behind Genesis (cant remember his name) he gave at a University at a time when much investor money had already gone up in a puff of smoke with no return. No mention was made about that, just focus on the next big idea. Buying marginal land for biofuel crops, if I remember correctly - anyone know how that played out?

And there was I hoping that you were going to admit to being Phil Collins :)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: It IS Friday

[Biscuit]

And there was I hoping that you were going to admit to being Phil Collins :)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: It IS Friday


I can neither confirm nor deny. By the way:

From 1994 to 2010, Genesis operated as a biotechnology company based in Auckland, New Zealand, developing therapeutics for the treatment of cancer and diseases of the immune system and agricultural biotech projects.

Genesis established Solirna Biosciences Ltd to develop a novel single stranded gene silencing technology which acts through the RNAi mechanism.

In 2010 Genesis and Solirna ceased operations due to lack of funding.

[Carpenterjoe]

I'll be keeping an eye on this one, would be great to see our potential market grow from West to Mid-west. Bring on the KP Deal.

http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20151104/NEWS/311049997

http://www.henryford.com/body.cfm?id=37460

[Minerbarejet]

Hey Miner how's things. Just checking in to see if you remembered to send Chelsea flowers and chocolates for her insightful analysis of PEB back in Feb? You are obviously tuned into this sector well and I hope you can provide me and other readers guidance on how to invest.

Best wishes. It was never my intent to advise anyone on what they should or should not do with their dosh, Schrodinger. Sorry if you got that impression. I am merely a participant in a long running and ongoing battle to understand the ins and outs of this company via a medium of Sharetrader along with other sources. I have retained a reasonable holding and await the results in November HY Interim. Especially of interest will be revenue and Trade receivables.
The recent newsletter indicated a lab throughput of around 19% over FY 2015. This could be a bit misleading if anyone considers that to be an indication of growth in revenue or lack of it.
But I suppose you have that all sussed anyway.
Cheers
Miner

[kiwidollabill]

Forsyth Barr Downgrades Expectations

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/362414/brokers-downgrade-pacific-edge-views

[nextbigthing]

From that ODT article;

"He said PEB had attributed the slowing growth to a seasonal downturn in the US"

I wasn't aware bladder cancer was seasonal or affected by economic downturns. Interesting.

''To gain access to the VA and reach these patients, we need to be approved and added to the Federal Supply Schedule ... we are now in the final stages of review,''

That does sound like good news. However, how long will the 'final stages' drag on for and what's to say the review won't decline them anyway. Guess this is where their favourite 'cusp of success' statement comes from.

Not even being able to find enough patients to run the KP trial - that's pretty concerning!

[winner69]

Not even being able to find enough patients to run the KP trial - that's pretty concerning!

Nbt - reason being seasonality my friend

[OldGuy]

The growth in throughput has fallen from 140% in the previous HY to only 19%. I can't make it any clearer than that for those that still think this thing has legs.

Good luck. Strongly recommend that people consider exiting or placing stops before the HY results are announced. They are going to be crap (IMHO).

[skid]

KP trial---the good news is that they obviously have'nt gotten the 2000 patients yet for the trial (how many-who knows) so we cant deduct the at least 2000 (free)from the tests(if they only do 1 per patient)-(which could mean more paid tests)but does anyone really expect them to amount to much?--Bad news is that this looks to be dragging on longer and longer with KP trials.(who thought they would come up with 2000 patients so quickly in the first place?
The odds of decent sales are looking pretty slim by the sound of that report so I think its going to have to be faith alone as before unless there is a surprise.
That new (and expensive)drug for melanoma looks the real deal(featured on Sunday last night) How does that affect PEBs Melanoma patent?
Getting the bodies immune system to identify and fight cancer itself seems to be the way to go (exciting)
If PEB could somehow use its process of identifying bladder cancer to tipping off the immune system--that would be something to celebrate.

Biggest danger --as all this time passes-others are catching up

[skid]

It was never my intent to advise anyone on what they should or should not do with their dosh, Schrodinger. Sorry if you got that impression. I am merely a participant in a long running and ongoing battle to understand the ins and outs of this company via a medium of Sharetrader along with other sources. I have retained a reasonable holding and await the results in November HY Interim. Especially of interest will be revenue and Trade receivables.
The recent newsletter indicated a lab throughput of around 19% over FY 2015. This could be a bit misleading if anyone considers that to be an indication of growth in revenue or lack of it.
But I suppose you have that all sussed anyway.
Cheers
Miner

I think that was more Macs domain(although you certainly held him in high regard) I reckon 50% of my posts were in response to some of his assumptions. Is he permanently banned?
I just hope not to many took his word as gospel as it had potential to do real damage.
I think most are far more realistic now. It just shows the dangers of being ''married''to a company.
The ability to change ones mind ,even a little, is an asset.

[couta1]

Mac wasn't banned Skid, he basically got sick of the excessive trolling (Intentional and unintentional) He even sent the Mod's some research articles on the subject before leaving.

[Balance]

Capitulation in progress. The sp tells all.

Forbar brokers were probably inundated last week with bleating phone calls from those who chose to blindly follow the company's assertions and Forbar bullish research.

So who are the only buyers left are there to invest in PEB?

Could be another trade at 40c coming up.


:D :D :D

[777]

So what happened to Hancock who promoted PEB so well on this thread. I note he is no longer a member here.

[Balance]

So what happened to Hancock who promoted PEB so well on this thread. I note he is no longer a member here.

He could not have been more wrong about PEB in the last year so has obviously taken the easy way out?

The derogatory terms he used on anyone who dared to challenge the assertions made by PEB and its followers have now come home to roost in PEB's shocking performance as an investment.

PEB - down 77% from its exuberance high.

[OldGuy]

Capitulation in progress. The sp tells all.

Forbar brokers were probably inundated last week with bleating phone calls from those who chose to blindly follow the company's assertions and Forbar bullish research.

So who are the only buyers left are there to invest in PEB?

Could be another trade at 40c coming up.


:D :D :D

how are those recent buys working out for you?

[Minerbarejet]

He could not have been more wrong about PEB in the last year so has obviously taken the easy way out?

The derogatory terms he used on anyone who dared to challenge the assertions made by PEB and its followers have now come home to roost in PEB's shocking performance as an investment.

PEB - down 77% from its exuberance high.

Well isnt this just an entertaining couple of items from the resident trolls who have decided to backstab posters who are no longer in a position to reply in their defence.
Nice one boys, hope you are really proud of yourselves.
It might be pointed out that one of them was contributing exhuberant postings the same as everyone else back in the past.
And as for derogatory terms: there would seem to be a fair bit of Pot calling the Kettle black in that.
Due to the pathetic moanings and bleatings on this thread driving every reasonably sane minded investor to the verge of self harm, many members have decided this confused babble is no longer for them.

[Balance]

how are those recent buys working out for you?

Good. Made a quick 5%.

Not a stock to stay in too long.

The lemmings are on the run and jumping off the cliff. Get out of the way!

[OldGuy]

Yeah right. Tui ad.

[skid]

[
IE Mac (not to be confused with Hancock)
QUOTE=skid;596704]It says ''banned'' under his name--maybe they never got around to changing it--Is it any wonder why someone who continually touted the company and was proven wrong at every corner, has decided to take the easy way out--Do you think trolls is the reason it went from 1.70 to .40--He complained about my questioning his assumptions and the influence it may have on ''Newbies'',scaring them. In hindsight they would have done well to do more research.
blaming Posters for what has happened to PEBs SP is lazy(although there have been trolls)--Mac was always entitled to his opinion as well as you, and I,-but statements like ''theres a 40%profit if you want it''-exceeds the boundaries IMO,even if it was just over exuberance --I wont harp on, but to say that --Not losing money is the same as making money(actually better when you think about it)[/QUOTE]

Hancocks knew more about the science than anyone--but in the end-(so far) the science was not enough--It had to be sold--other factors then come into play

Sorry Miner ,but Mac made his bed--its fair game IMO to question his assumptions--He is welcome to return and give his take--Im sure both of you would still be here if the SP was $2 (and no doubt will return when (if)there is no reason to blame posters for PEBs performance.)

Hopefully it will bounce and give us all reasons to say good things.

[kiwidollabill]

NZFC increased holding, trying to prop up SP until financial reports or do they see value?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/273073

[pierre]

NZFC increased holding, trying to prop up SP until financial reports or do they see value?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/273073

That's a hell of a lot of shares to be holding if there's no value in them!

[biker]

Happy to buy today, below the VWAP of .386

[Leftfield]

Happy to buy today, below the VWAP of .386

Good on ya…… me nibbling at todays prices too.

[skid]

This was a bit of a deja vue of the crazy day last week where .40 was the bottom---never a dull moment..

[trader_jackson]

Once again while 'pot shots' continue to fly on here, and retail investors continue to panic, the people that understand the game are topping up their holding... smart but not surprising move for a professional to capitalize on retail stupidity.

I think institutions now hold quite a substantial percentage of ownership now...

Looking forward to results day and seeing the share price most likely 'skyrocket' once the retail panickers finish panicking!

And after this happening so many times... share price finishes just below what it opened at... 40c.. just the usual share trading day for PEB, drop dramatically for no reason, then rise almost just as fast to finish the same, or near the opening price.

Disclosure: watching with great interest, if I had the cash I would have gotten in at anything below 40c

[OldGuy]

Once again while 'pot shots' continue to fly on here, and retail investors continue to panic, the people that understand the game are topping up their holding... smart but not surprising move for a professional to capitalize on retail stupidity.

I think institutions now hold quite a substantial percentage of ownership now...

Looking forward to results day and seeing the share price most likely 'skyrocket' once the retail panickers finish panicking!


Can't wait to reconcile these predictions with reality when the HY results are released.

[BlackPeter]

Once again while 'pot shots' continue to fly on here, and retail investors continue to panic, the people that understand the game are topping up their holding... smart but not surprising move for a professional to capitalize on retail stupidity.

I think institutions now hold quite a substantial percentage of ownership now...

Looking forward to results day and seeing the share price most likely 'skyrocket' once the retail panickers finish panicking!

And after this happening so many times... share price finishes just below what it opened at... 40c.. just the usual share trading day for PEB, drop dramatically for no reason, then rise almost just as fast to finish the same, or near the opening price.

Disclosure: watching with great interest, if I had the cash I would have gotten in at anything below 40c


Hmm - I see that NZFC did top up - and they might have had plenty of reasons for that (one being to just support the paper value of their huge existing holding in order to keep their clients happy - nobody wants to see huge losses in their investment funds). If they wouldn't have bought, who knows, where PEB might be now - certainly well below 40 cents).

Not sure, whether I agree with the conclusion that the share must be cheap just because a fund manager is buying. Sometimes they get it right, and sometimes they get it wrong - and sometimes they get it spectacularly wrong.

Particularly considering that NZFC was the underwriter for the recent capital rising (was it really a great decision from them to underwrite shares at 60 cents, they can now buy for less than 40 cents?), am I not sure whether we can consider their judgement as impeccable. Maybe they are now just making another classical mistake and averaging down into a downtrending stock?

There is as well this saying about catching falling knives ... maybe it demonstrates balls to do that, but on the other hand - personally I value my fingers as well and try to avoid losing them ...

TJ - if you risk your own fingers, than good luck to you ... but are you sure you should try to talk others into this game?

Question: based on your posts it sounds like you think PEB reached rock bottom (otherwise why recommending to buy)? Why would you think that?

[skid]

Once again while 'pot shots' continue to fly on here, and retail investors continue to panic, the people that understand the game are topping up their holding... smart but not surprising move for a professional to capitalize on retail stupidity.

I think institutions now hold quite a substantial percentage of ownership now...

Looking forward to results day and seeing the share price most likely 'skyrocket' once the retail panickers finish panicking!

And after this happening so many times... share price finishes just below what it opened at... 40c.. just the usual share trading day for PEB, drop dramatically for no reason, then rise almost just as fast to finish the same, or near the opening price.

Disclosure: watching with great interest, if I had the cash I would have gotten in at anything below 40c

It may be a good thing you dont have the cash TJ--We are getting lower highs and lower lows atm. and as far as i can see the absolute best case scenario would be an increase in Sales of 19% (if no free tests were processed for KP)
We know thats not going to be the case -so its a matter of how much lower sales will be.
We need much higher multiples for the SP to ''skyrocket''

[Whipmoney]

Hmm - I see that NZFC did top up - and they might have had plenty of reasons for that (one being to just support the paper value of their huge existing holding in order to keep their clients happy - nobody wants to see huge losses in their investment funds). If they wouldn't have bought, who knows, where PEB might be now - certainly well below 40 cents).

Not sure, whether I agree with the conclusion that the share must be cheap just because a fund manager is buying. Sometimes they get it right, and sometimes they get it wrong - and sometimes they get it spectacularly wrong.

Particularly considering that NZFC was the underwriter for the recent capital raising (was it really a great decision from them to underwrite shares at 60 cents, they can now buy for less than 40 cents?), am I not sure whether we can consider their judgement as impeccable. Maybe they are now just making another classical mistake and averaging down into a downtrending stock?



Possibly to avoid being sued?

[winner69]

It may be a good thing you dont have the cash TJ--We are getting lower highs and lower lows atm. and as far as i can see the absolute best case scenario would be an increase in Sales of 19% (if no free tests were processed for KP)
We know thats not going to be the case -so its a matter of how much lower sales will be.
We need much higher multiples for the SP to ''skyrocket''

t-j ----sell some HNZ to buy PEB and make a killing

[trader_jackson]

t-j ----sell some HNZ to buy PEB and make a killing

I have considered selling my bigger holdings in MRP :t_up:

[Baa_Baa]

I have considered selling my bigger holdings in MRP :t_up:

Eternal optimism is endearing, though few here would wish you to lose your shirt by selling quality, for the sake of hope for a payday that is not obviously coming any time soon. Some though will trade the likes of your optimism with impunity and gloat at the naivety that earned them a payday. Beware the market as it has no emotion, no bias, no feeling, it is, it gives to the alert and takes from the hapless.

[Crackity]

Eternal optimism is endearing, though few here would wish you to lose your shirt by selling quality, for the sake of hope for a payday that is not obviously coming any time soon. Some though will trade the likes of your optimism with impunity and gloat at the naivety that earned them a payday. Beware the market as it has no emotion, no bias, no feeling, it is, it gives to the alert and takes from the hapless.

Commerce Commission warns against Baa Baa
i couldn't resist this headline from Stuff - sorry Baa! :)

[trader_jackson]

Eternal optimism is endearing, though few here would wish you to lose your shirt by selling quality, for the sake of hope for a payday that is not obviously coming any time soon. Some though will trade the likes of your optimism with impunity and gloat at the naivety that earned them a payday. Beware the market as it has no emotion, no bias, no feeling, it is, it gives to the alert and takes from the hapless.

The volatility of PEB's share price, based off almost no reason what so ever (except possible "old news") is a direct result of emotion, the massive swings from 40c to 35c then back to 40c is nothing but feelings and emotions.

The small guys (the retail investors - the emotional ones) lose out, as the institutions 'swoop' in to snap up what they must perceive are incredibly cheap shares.

I think your comment Baa_Baa, although generally applicable to many shares on the NZX (or any market) could not be further from the truth with PEB - PEB's shares are nothing but emotion these last few days, particularly today.

[Baa_Baa]

The volatility of PEB's share price, based off almost no reason what so ever (except possible "old news") is a direct result of emotion, the massive swings from 40c to 35c then back to 40c is nothing but feelings and emotions.

The small guys (the retail investors - the emotional ones) lose out, as the institutions 'swoop' in to snap up what they must perceive are incredibly cheap shares.

I think your comment Baa_Baa, although generally applicable to many shares on the NZX (or any market) could not be further from the truth with PEB - PEB's shares are nothing but emotion these last few days, particularly today.

Good luck with that TJ, the 'market' loves you emotionally attached guys, honestly. If you're sitting at the poker table with a bunch of professional poker players and you can't see the patsy at the table, guess who the patsy is? Just be careful TJ, that's all I'm saying, it's not advice.

[trader_jackson]

Good luck with that TJ, the 'market' loves you emotionally attached guys, honestly. If you're sitting at the poker table with a bunch of professional poker players and you can't see the patsy at the table, guess who the patsy is? Just be careful TJ, that's all I'm saying, it's not advice.

I understand where you are coming from, all I was trying to say is that I believe it is emotion that is driving these wild fluctuations right now (either that or potentially insider trading, but I would like to think it was not the later)

As I have said for months, lets just have a coffee and wait for results, its really not that far away so the fact that people are 'seemingly panicking this far out' only servers to add that emotion is the key driver of the share price right now

[Carpenterjoe]

Take from it whatever you want.

http://ir.neogenomics.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=939146

"Average revenue per test decreased by 11.6%, primarily due to significant decreases in reimbursement for Fluorescence in-situ Hybridization ("FISH") testing,"

Not sure if this will effect Cxbladder, but useful to keep in mind.



Also found it interesting reading over last years report.

http://ir.neogenomics.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyid=AMDA-1JMEUI&fileid=830453&filekey=a082ee9c-53bf-4bf3-a388-09eaf6a3b1df&filename=neogenomics_2014_Annual_Report_Final.pdf

Investors need to understand the difference between Revenue Vs Cash Flow.


Apparently there is a period where Test Sales drop off.

"The majority of our testing volume is dependent on patients being treated by hematology/oncology professionals and other healthcare providers. The volume of our testing services generally declines modestly during the summer vacation season, year-end holiday periods and other major holidays, particularly when those holidays fall during the middle of the week. In addition, the volume of our testing tends to decline due to adverse weather conditions, such as excessively hot or cold spells, heavy snow, hurricanes or tornados in certain regions, consequently reducing revenues and cash flows in any affected period. Therefore, comparison of the results of successive periods may not accurately reflect trends for future periods."

Also Talk about the FDA becoming more evolved LTD's, still need to chase this up. but things move soooooo slow in this industry no need to hurry.

[Carpenterjoe]

Quick Question, is the last publication a Monthly thing now? Only reason I ask is DB has Monthly beside the Title in the News Tab and November is plastered at the top.

Thanks in Advance to any answers!

[BlackPeter]

I understand where you are coming from, all I was trying to say is that I believe it is emotion that is driving these wild fluctuations right now (either that or potentially insider trading, but I would like to think it was not the later)

As I have said for months, lets just have a coffee and wait for results, its really not that far away so the fact that people are 'seemingly panicking this far out' only servers to add that emotion is the key driver of the share price right now

Hi TJ - absolutely agree - this share price is driven by emotions (well ... greed and fear) like any other stock, but probably more exposed to them, given that the "fundamentals" are not tangible, but based on faith and hope.

Nothing wrong with that, most startups have to go through this phase. However worthwhile considering that the PEB startup phase turned already a teen in February this year (13 years - did they celebrate?), but still not much more to show off (in financial terms) than empty promises and consistently negative cash flow popped up by regular capital raises.

Seriously - how long do you give a company to turn cash flow positive? 15 years since inception would be for PEB already an incredible optimistic forecast. How much more - 20 years, 25 years, a life time?

[skid]

I understand where you are coming from, all I was trying to say is that I believe it is emotion that is driving these wild fluctuations right now (either that or potentially insider trading, but I would like to think it was not the later)

As I have said for months, lets just have a coffee and wait for results, its really not that far away so the fact that people are 'seemingly panicking this far out' only servers to add that emotion is the key driver of the share price right now

There is no doubt that there is emotion involved these days tJ--If you want to try a gamble with trading ,its your decision.
There are reasons for the emotions. Probably the most obvious is the update which many are not impressed with--Are you?
Others have been watching their investment slowly disappear and have had a guts full (which is fair)
Before the catch phrase was ''traders''vs long term holders (the good guys)--Now its ''retail traders'' (Thats what you and other posters are) vs Institutions (yep the big boys will always have the advantage)
The only recent news of insto action is first capital who were involved in the capital raising @.60--If they have held a chunk at that price then they are averaging down,in a downtrend--You gonna put your faith in that? Size does not necessarily mean they know what they are doing-or if they do ,for what reasons. Forbars record up to now (with PEB)has shown that. First Capital are uncomfortably close with the Cap raising to bet the farm on.
If your thinking longer term than trading (on the emotions) then you have to look at what is going to make the SP rise or whats going to hold it here.
I find it strange that they(PEB) have already all but eliminated the chance of a big leap in sales revenue with their statement on lab tests.
It changes the question of whether this will be the leap forward to -will there be a small rise or will it hold..to how bad is it?
They could get a bit of traction on announcing a new partner in OZ,but IMO it would have to be someone bigger and better than the last.
Its taking a while (I would have thought they would have secured something before burning that bridge) But Oz is just peanuts anyway.
Things in the States appear to be ''drifting'' like the SP.
The share price looks cheap compared to before ,but that was in the mindset of exponential leaps forward-taking america by storm.
If that ever happens, it is surly a fair bit further down the road as Kaiser(the big hope) is having trouble scraping together enough participants(the weather?)
You can make blanket statements about emotion and retail shareholders but the above, are real things that (although i may be wrong)are worth considering

[OldGuy]

For pure laughs, I'm going to call the SP dropping below 30 cents post the HY results being announced.

[Balance]

For pure laughs, I'm going to call the SP dropping below 30 cents post the HY results being announced.

Shhhh - takeover could be announced then and what would your call be?

[OldGuy]

probably closer to 20c.

[Hoop]

PEB 1 year chart below...represents a summary of the last 3889 posts on this thread...some of it time consuming analysis of how good this company is and why we should've bought all those "cheap " shares within the last year...

The cause of PEB price demise??? ... Hell!!!!.. it all the fault of Traders, TAists, Chartists, (remember that alternative PEB no TA allowed thread), Disbelievers, the pessimists, the uneducated, the anti-rampers, and last and not least the weak kneed sheeple

Maybe PEB needs more time and another 13000 posts before all of us finally believe how wrong we were and how great this company really is ....Hmmm correct that..maybe PEB will need another 26,000 posts

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB%2009112015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB%2009112015.png.html)

[skid]

Shhhh - takeover could be announced then and what would your call be?

Shhhh....NaCL

[winner69]

probably closer to 20c.

This is getting sad

My call - if Forbar says a buck I reckon a buck it will be

I see the ODT said someone other than Chelsea put out that report - wonder what happened to the delectable Chelsea?

[Crackity]

PEB 1 year chart below...represents a summary of the last 3889 posts on this thread...some of it time consuming analysis of how good this company is and why we should've bought all those "cheap " shares within the last year...

The cause of PEB price demise??? ... Hell!!!!.. it all the fault of Traders, TAists, Chartists, (remember that alternative PEB no TA allowed thread), Disbelievers, the pessimists, the uneducated, the anti-rampers, and last and not least the weak kneed sheeple

Maybe PEB needs more time and another 13000 posts before all of us finally believe how wrong we were and how great this company really is ....Hmmm correct that..maybe PEB will need another 26,000 posts

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB%2009112015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB%2009112015.png.html)

That is one unhappy chart - I wouldn't be betting against Old Guys slightly tongue in cheek predictions.

[skid]

This is getting sad

My call - if Forbar says a buck I reckon a buck it will be

I see the ODT said someone other than Chelsea put out that report - wonder what happened to the delectable Chelsea?

Why?... and When?.....Think I saw Chelsea busking at the Otara market--Man she is a bad singer:)

[kiwidollabill]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDpPlrHgquM (https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv% 3DcDpPlrHgquM&h=LAQF_fJaa)

Must watch! Especially the advice at the end (dont close the video until it actually ends)
If this doesnt enlighten you, nothing will.

Well played....

[skid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDpPlrHgquM (https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv% 3DcDpPlrHgquM&h=LAQF_fJaa)

Must watch! Especially the advice at the end (dont close the video until it actually ends)
If this doesnt enlighten you, nothing will.

Thanks KW--.....could you please pass the popcorn....

[Schrodinger]

A few available for $0.39 easy 100% profit on offer team.

[Leftfield]

I seem to recall similar calls of 'pump and dump' over on the BLT thread…….. (which btw shares a similar heritage to PEB)….however sometimes (if you look at the BLT graphs ) a longer term view can pay off.

Only time will tell who is right on PEB….

[Crackity]

I seem to recall similar calls of 'pump and dump' over on the BLT thread…….. (which btw shares a similar heritage to PEB)….however sometimes (if you look at the BLT graphs ) a longer term view can pay off.

Only time will tell who is right on PEB….

I'm reminded of that old phrase that a long term investment is a short term trade gone wrong.

or something like that :)

[winner69]

I seem to recall similar calls of 'pump and dump' over on the BLT thread…….. (which btw shares a similar heritage to PEB)….however sometimes (if you look at the BLT graphs ) a longer term view can pay off.

Only time will tell who is right on PEB….

You suggesting PEB going the BLT way .... like below

[Leftfield]

I'm suggesting much depends on your timing and your risk appetite….. and here's another example in ATM.
77167717

[winner69]

I'm suggesting much depends on your timing and your risk appetite….. and here's another example in ATM.
77167717

Aren't both 'long term' investments?

Just pointing out that long time ago BLT was as 'promising' as PEB is now but te promise didn't eventuate and share price looks like the chart I posted - implying that PEB could go that way if promise does not eventuate (in te long term)
One thing though - the very early PEB shareholders are still very much in the money

[nextbigthing]

A few available for $0.39 easy 100% profit on offer team.

But how do you short on the nzx to do it?

[NZSilver]

Horrible stock - over promised and under delivered. Will see high teens I believe

[skid]

I've eaten it all, as I've been here awhile. Hold on a sec, I'll make some more. Do you prefer butter or icing sugar?

For PEB Ill take butter with plenty of grains of SALT (maybe schrodinger would like some)

[kiwidollabill]

Put it in the diary

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/273186

[Schrodinger]

But how do you short on the nzx to do it?

Well played Sir. I like my popcorn extra 7718!

[skid]

Well played Sir. I like my popcorn extra 7718!

Im assuming you have taken a punt, schrod--so far ..so good--With the oilers in the old days some bought up until just before the drill results and then sold ,it seemed to work more often than banking on the results (kind of buying as excitement builds,but selling before actual results)--I have no idea whether it works for PEB as things seem to be all over the place--but interesting to watch from the sidelines.
Are you in? and if so,are you taking a punt on actual results? (or did I miss the sarcasm in your post)

[Balance]

Institutions have absorbed the lemming run in the mean time.

What can the results bring which will put a floor under the sp?

[Schrodinger]

Im assuming you have taken a punt, schrod--so far ..so good--With the oilers in the old days some bought up until just before the drill results and then sold ,it seemed to work more often than banking on the results (kind of buying as excitement builds,but selling before actual results)--I have no idea whether it works for PEB as things seem to be all over the place--but interesting to watch from the sidelines.
Are you in? and if so,are you taking a punt on actual results? (or did I miss the sarcasm in your post)

I don't hold any shares nor plan to. I am generally a longer play investor and the NZX is a terrible market for short terms trades. Their USA strategy gives me the heebie jeebies.

[Tsuba]

Looks like the sad sacks fan club has wandered off to buy some shares.

Can't stay sorry must go and feed the chooks. ;)

[pierre]

Looks like the sad sacks fan club has wandered off to buy some shares.

Can't stay sorry must go and feed the chooks. ;)

Yep - nice to see a little bit of uplift but still a long way to go for many holders to get rid of the red arrows!

[Balance]

Blood and casualties at the bottom of the cliff.

Capitulation and lemmings - deadly combination when it comes to investing!

Traders rejoice of course at the greed and fear factors at work everyday in the market.

Something about 'be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful'.

[trader_jackson]

I just find it amazing how so many posters rant and rave when the share price falls, then it has an outstanding (but not unexpected) recovery and nobody couldn't care less...

People making claims that things can only get worse, and investors burning, calling out past posters on how 'great' they must be looking now... almost despicable sort of behavior, then the share price bounces right back and its all quiet on the western front (no apologies yet...)

Still a long way to go, but lets just wait till results day until more 'pot shots' are made

[winner69]

T_j - they probably all out celebrating after the 10% plus gains in a few days and too busy to gloat about it.

[Crackity]

I just find it amazing how so many posters rant and rave when the share price falls, then it has an outstanding (but not unexpected) recovery and nobody couldn't care less...

People making claims that things can only get worse, and investors burning, calling out past posters on how 'great' they must be looking now... almost despicable sort of behavior, then the share price bounces right back and its all quiet on the western front (no apologies yet...)

Still a long way to go, but lets just wait till results day until more 'pot shots' are made

Absolutely - I'm just impressed with how quickly management have turned things round.

Nothing to see here people - move along ;)

[skid]

TJ.....just enjoy it....:)....

[Minerbarejet]

As of March 2015 Pacific Edge considers itself to have completed one full year of trading in the US

From page 8 of the Presentation to Australian Institutions March of 2015

"Throughput has continued to improve substantially throughout the first full year of trading in the US". (Their words, not mine)

So it's not two/three years down the track at all.

From Page 9 of the Presentations to Australian Institutions March of 2015

"Kaiser Permanente will recruit up to 2000 patients in a User Programme (UP) to evaluate the effectiveness of Cxbladder in Kaiser Permanente’s clinical settings."(as above)

It says UP TO which would mean to me anyway that if KP are sufficiently impressed (or not) with results they could convert to a full paying customer (or not) at any time. A maximum of 2000 is the number of tests that Pacific Edge would provide under that particular negotiated price agreement with KP. This does not mean that KP will have to collect 2000 patients before a decision is made.

There are no "free" tests.
All User Programs tests that have been done by Pacific Edge in its short commercial enterprise in the US have been through a negotiated pricing structure for each individual client. The terms of which are commercially sensitive and may differ between users.
As a result the only way Pacific Edge can give some indication of how things are going is by showing lab throughput otherwise it shouldn't be too difficult to reverse engineer revenues from User Programs.
It would perhaps make sense that these User Programs should at the very least cover Pacific Edge's costs, this being the minimum price Pacific Edge would accept under any UP negotiations.

[skid]

First commercial sales in USA Oct 2013

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/first-commercial-sales-achieved-for-pacific-edges-cxbladder-in-the-usa/

You do the maths

[pierre]

First commercial sales in USA Oct 2013

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/first-commercial-sales-achieved-for-pacific-edges-cxbladder-in-the-usa/

You do the maths

At the AGM which I attended a few months back, I asked the chairman in the Q&A session about the target of $100m sales in the first five years of commercial sales. I specifically asked when was the first year - his reply was "2013". I followed up with "so $100m by FY18" - his reply was "yes".
Looks like a busy three years ahead.

[Minerbarejet]

At the AGM which I attended a few months back, I asked the chairman in the Q&A session about the target of $100m sales in the first five years of commercial sales. I specifically asked when was the first year - his reply was "2013". I followed up with "so $100m by FY18" - his reply was "yes".
Looks like a busy three years ahead.

Trading: Buying and selling of products usually involving the payment and receipt of money to conclude the trade.

Oct 2013 1st commercial test sold in US.
May 2014 1st commercial test sold in Oct paid for and transaction complete. Remember the 7 months of lag it took for it to work through the system.

Therefore first FULL trading year where tests bought, sold and paid for April 2014 to March 2015. Results of which were available last May. Thats one.
Anywhere around 75 to 100 million is good enough for me by Mar 2019.

[winner69]

Trading: Buying and selling of products usually involving the payment and receipt of money to conclude the trade.

Oct 2013 1st commercial test sold in US.
May 2014 1st commercial test sold in Oct paid for and transaction complete. Remember the 7 months of lag it took for it to work through the system.

Therefore first FULL trading year where tests bought, sold and paid for April 2014 to March 2015. Results of which were available last May. Thats one.
Anywhere around 75 to 100 million is good enough for me by Mar 2019.

I thought a few weeks ago you said you were leaving us for good

Good to have you back and fighting fit as well.

[kiwidollabill]

Trading: Buying and selling of products usually involving the payment and receipt of money to conclude the trade.

Oct 2013 1st commercial test sold in US.
May 2014 1st commercial test sold in Oct paid for and transaction complete. Remember the 7 months of lag it took for it to work through the system.

Therefore first FULL trading year where tests bought, sold and paid for April 2014 to March 2015. Results of which were available last May. Thats one.
Anywhere around 75 to 100 million is good enough for me by Mar 2019.

So you are right and the Chairman is wrong?

[OldGuy]

Looking back on this now, and recognising the speed at which new anti-cancer treatments are emerging, PEB was never going to gain a 10% market share (which they used to reach the $100m target).

In fact, they may be lucky to ever reach 1%.

I learned some very important lessons from this, for which I am very thankful.

Good luck to these that, somehow, still believe in this company. I hope you all prove me wrong! :)

[Leftfield]

Welcome back Miner…… PEB Interim results due 26 Nov….. I suggest we all take a deep breath and wait for the results to speak for themselves.

[Minerbarejet]

So you are right and the Chairman is wrong?
Anythings possible.
Tens of thousands ring a bell?

[Minerbarejet]

I thought a few weeks ago you said you were leaving us for good

Good to have you back and fighting fit as well.
Thanks- I was asked to stay on as a distributor of glad tidings as they come to light by others who don't have the time to engage in this verbal combat such as it is.

[Biscuit]

Thanks- I was asked to stay on as a distributor of glad tidings as they come to light by others who don't have the time to engage in this verbal combat such as it is.

I'm unlikely to invest in this type of company myself. Interesting that there is such a dichotomy of opinion. The only ones who could really have a good idea of the prospects from here are the people running the company and you don't know if you can believe what they say. The question I would ask myself is what did they promise at the beginning and how well have they delivered that?

[Bing]

I initially took the $100 mil in 5 years to be an aspirational statement. I think the stars would really have to align for PEB to make that now (whether in 2018 or 2019). If they don’t reach the 100 mil but are showing strong growth then I will be happy.

I’ve decided to give the company until the May 2016 results announcement before deciding what to do. By this time I expect the VA and CMS agreements to be signed which will hopefully drive up the share price. I doubt the KP agreement will have been signed by then by the looks of things but you never know. I would be looking for the May results to be at least in line with analyst expectations (7-9 mil) in the absence of any guidance from PEB. This should calm the market at least.

The KP agreement would be a game changer for PEB in my opinion. It should be considered that the fact that KP is carrying out a large trial means that they must have a reasonable expectation that the product will be of benefit to them. They will have many suitors all trying to convince them to adopt their new drug, product or test.

I am however worried about the many missed targets so far and consider the risk of failure to be rising as time drags on. It appears that the VA agreement is in the bag (“in the final stages of review”) but the CMS is still “progressing well.” DD did talk of the need to have testimony from a medical professional and to have the recently published studies on hand to submit in support of their CMS application in the last conference call so hopefully things will now “progress.” If the other bladder cancer tests out there got VA and CMS approval (correct me if I am wrong) I see no reason why PEB won't as well.

[pierre]

Welcome back Miner…… PEB Interim results due 26 Nov….. I suggest we all take a deep breath and wait for the results to speak for themselves.

Good idea. Everyone is simply speculating on what might happen. Despite the "tens of thousands" of tests drama, the company has not given specific guidance so we will all just have to wait and see.

If I was DD I would be holding off signing any new agreements until a day or two prior to the 26 November results announcement....just saying!

[OldGuy]

It appears that the VA agreement is in the bag (“in the final stages of review”)

Careful with making such bold inferences. They could also be denied in the final review and have to start the whole process again. It is already about 18 months late and could easily stretch to 5 years at this rate.

David Darling is a highly incompetent businessman, right from his dress sense down to the language he uses and the way that he engages with stakeholders.

[Bing]

David Darling is a highly incompetent businessman, right from his dress sense down to the language he uses and the way that he engages with stakeholders.

Oh I don't know about that. I thought he looked quite dapper in the last Investor Update. Wearing a tie and everything...:)

[Minerbarejet]

Good idea. Everyone is simply speculating on what might happen. Despite the "tens of thousands" of tests drama, the company has not given specific guidance so we will all just have to wait and see.

If I was DD I would be holding off signing any new agreements until a day or two prior to the 26 November results announcement....just saying!
I can think of several hundred thousand reasons why he should not.
Hope lessons have been learnt from that debacle with FMA.

[Snow Leopard]

...
There are no "free" tests.
All User Programs tests that have been done by Pacific Edge in its short commercial enterprise in the US have been through a negotiated pricing structure for each individual client. The terms of which are commercially sensitive and may differ between users.
As a result the only way Pacific Edge can give some indication of how things are going is by showing lab throughput otherwise it shouldn't be too difficult to reverse engineer revenues from User Programs.
It would perhaps make sense that these User Programs should at the very least cover Pacific Edge's costs, this being the minimum price Pacific Edge would accept under any UP negotiations.

I so hope that your source is wrong about that, can we get confirmation?

I would much prefer that (f'rinstance) all of last years $1M9 of product sales was from proper commercial sales and not from some (unknown as always) combination of a lesser amount of true commercial sales and contributions from UP tests.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: No PEB.

[skid]

I initially took the $100 mil in 5 years to be an aspirational statement. I think the stars would really have to align for PEB to make that now (whether in 2018 or 2019). If they don’t reach the 100 mil but are showing strong growth then I will be happy.

I’ve decided to give the company until the May 2016 results announcement before deciding what to do. By this time I expect the VA and CMS agreements to be signed which will hopefully drive up the share price. I doubt the KP agreement will have been signed by then by the looks of things but you never know. I would be looking for the May results to be at least in line with analyst expectations (7-9 mil) in the absence of any guidance from PEB. This should calm the market at least.

The KP agreement would be a game changer for PEB in my opinion. It should be considered that the fact that KP is carrying out a large trial means that they must have a reasonable expectation that the product will be of benefit to them. They will have many suitors all trying to convince them to adopt their new drug, product or test.

I am however worried about the many missed targets so far and consider the risk of failure to be rising as time drags on. It appears that the VA agreement is in the bag (“in the final stages of review”) but the CMS is still “progressing well.” DD did talk of the need to have testimony from a medical professional and to have the recently published studies on hand to submit in support of their CMS application in the last conference call so hopefully things will now “progress.” If the other bladder cancer tests out there got VA and CMS approval (correct me if I am wrong) I see no reason why PEB won't as well.

If thats the case--it should be relatively simple to see who has gotten approval and how they are doing.

[skid]

Good idea. Everyone is simply speculating on what might happen. Despite the "tens of thousands" of tests drama, the company has not given specific guidance so we will all just have to wait and see.

If I was DD I would be holding off signing any new agreements until a day or two prior to the 26 November results announcement....just saying!

They quite often throw in some sort of ''sweetener'' just before the results--signing a new agreement doesnt seem likely given their track record to date---My guess--there will be some announcement on a new Oz partner to replace the one that fell over.
It gives a nice look of ''potential'' without haveing to have to come up with the goods.

I cant see the numbers being that great, given the test numbers already stated--since we are all guessing (as usual) my guess is that aside from ho hum results,they are going to have to rely on a song and dance on how glowing the future looks.

When this result comes out--have a good look at the sales numbers and then think about the fact that they are still projecting they are going to reach their goal of an astronomical 100mil and then draw your own conclusions(or even 75mil-to keep miner happy)