PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[skid]

Another review--Oh Dear

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/853218

[Snow Leopard]

Another review--Oh Dear

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/853218

That is comment on the review that we have all already commented on (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd&p=595423&viewfull=1#post595423) :confused:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Schrodinger]

I have done some back of the envelope calculations in order to see if they are on track:

$2M sales after 2 years, which will leap to $25M in 2016, $50M in 2017 then $100M in 2018. This looks extremely reasonable according to investors.

[winner69]

I have done some back of the envelope calculations in order to see if they are on track:

$2M sales after 2 years, which will leap to $25M in 2016, $50M in 2017 then $100M in 2018. This looks extremely reasonable according to investors.

.....and then $200m in 2019

Looks extremely reasonable

[winner69]

Thanks- I was asked to stay on as a distributor of glad tidings as they come to light by others who don't have the time to engage in this verbal combat such as it is.

What's MAC up to these days?

[skid]

That is comment on the review that we have all already commented on (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd&p=595423&viewfull=1#post595423) !

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Sorry (the oct 2015 threw me) Your quite right!I havent been paying attention(wheres that little red faced smiley) (that exclamation mark will haunt me):)

[Snow Leopard]

Sorry (the oct 2015 threw me) Your quite right!I havent been paying attention(wheres that little red faced smiley) (that exclamation mark will haunt me):)

What exclamation mark?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Edison report out.
Here we go again.
And we get a before and after this time round.
Wish they would proof read these things.
They certainly didnt make 700 odd million at any stage last year.:laugh:

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=NZPEBE0002S1PacificEdgeUpdate171115.pdf&utm_campaign=171812_Pacific%20Edge%20-%20Moving%20towards%20key%20decision%20points%2015 372&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Edison%20Investment%20Research%20Limite d&dm_i=2PWO,3OKK,2GNG9O,B1VD,1 (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=NZPEBE0002S1PacificEdgeUpdate171115.pdf&utm_campaign=171812_Pacific%20Edge%20-%20Moving%20towards%20key%20decision%20points%2015 372&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Edison%20Investment%20Research%20Limite d&dm_i=2PWO,3OKK,2GNG9O,B1VD,1)

[kiwidollabill]

Here's another hurdle

http://fortune.com/2015/11/17/fda-lab-tests-regulation/?xid=soc_socialflow_twitter_FORTUNE

[skid]

What exclamation mark?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The one after ''that has already been commented on''!---(just my attempt at humor) no sarcasm intended---I truly missed that it had already come up-(is a worry though that it comes after the American Urological report which is now not just a ''one off''

Nevertheless I stand corrected (dont want to beat it to death)

[skid]

Edison report out.
Here we go again.
And we get a before and after this time round.
Wish they would proof read these things.
They certainly didnt make 700 odd million at any stage last year.:laugh:

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=NZPEBE0002S1PacificEdgeUpdate171115.pdf&utm_campaign=171812_Pacific%20Edge%20-%20Moving%20towards%20key%20decision%20points%2015 372&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Edison%20Investment%20Research%20Limite d&dm_i=2PWO,3OKK,2GNG9O,B1VD,1 (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=NZPEBE0002S1PacificEdgeUpdate171115.pdf&utm_campaign=171812_Pacific%20Edge%20-%20Moving%20towards%20key%20decision%20points%2015 372&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Edison%20Investment%20Research%20Limite d&dm_i=2PWO,3OKK,2GNG9O,B1VD,1)

Edison--(you gotta laugh)--thats a pretty big ''e'' after the 3/16 revenue--back of an envelope -If you take the 19% increase in lab throughput(last 6 months) and put it all on sales (not user tests)and use it for the whole year--you get 4.44 mil as compared to their ''e''(estimate) of 8.5mil

And now we have 2 reports that also cast doubts on how ''judgement time in the US''is going to play out--(which was a given before)

One can only assume the ''judgement time'' is what they are banking on----this looks like a giant advertisement --research for hire

[kiwidollabill]

Edison--(you gotta laugh)--thats a pretty big ''e'' after the 3/16 revenue--back of an envelope -If you take the 19% increase in lab throughput(last 6 months) and put it all on sales (not user tests)and use it for the whole year--you get 4.44 mil as compared to their ''e''(estimate) of 8.5mil

And now we have 2 reports that also cast doubts on how ''judgement time in the US''is going to play out--(which was a given before)

One can only assume the ''judgement time'' is what they are banking on----this looks like a giant advertisement --research for hire

You have to remember that total rev from customers in 15FY was only $1.9M (the remainder was grants, interest and FX), I suspect the upcoming earnings is going to be rather poor but 'window dressed' with new oz distributor/other vanity metrics

[Bing]

Some background into why KP is considering cxBladder Triage. Sounds like Triage is a perfect fit for KP if it works as advertised.


http://share.kaiserpermanente.org/article/kaiser-permanente-study-suggests-tests-routinely-done-on-patients-with-microscopic-blood-in-urine-can-be-avoided (http://Some background into why KP is considering cxBladder Triage. Sounds like Triage is a perfect fit for KP if it works as advertised. http://share.kaiserpermanente.org/article/kaiser-permanente-study-suggests-tests-routinely-done-on-patients-with-microscopic-blood-in-urine-can-be-avoided/)/

[Bing]

Try again
http://share.kaiserpermanente.org/article/kaiser-permanente-study-suggests-tests-routinely-done-on-patients-with-microscopic-blood-in-urine-can-be-avoided/ (http://share.kaiserpermanente.org/article/kaiser-permanente-study-suggests-tests-routinely-done-on-patients-with-microscopic-blood-in-urine-can-be-avoided/)

[skid]

Some background into why KP is considering cxBladder Triage. Sounds like Triage is a perfect fit for KP if it works as advertised.


http://share.kaiserpermanente.org/article/kaiser-permanente-study-suggests-tests-routinely-done-on-patients-with-microscopic-blood-in-urine-can-be-avoided (http://Some background into why KP is considering cxBladder Triage. Sounds like Triage is a perfect fit for KP if it works as advertised. http://share.kaiserpermanente.org/article/kaiser-permanente-study-suggests-tests-routinely-done-on-patients-with-microscopic-blood-in-urine-can-be-avoided/)/

If you read the article carefully they seem to be grouping urine testing with the other procedures that can be avoided by their model they have created called the ''Hematuria risk index'' which can be used instead.--(not sure i agree but thats what it says)

ps-your link doesnt work

http://share.kaiserpermanente.org/article/kaiser-permanente-study-suggests-tests-routinely-done-on-patients-with-microscopic-blood-in-urine-can-be-avoided/

[Bing]

If you read the article carefully they seem to be grouping urine testing with the other procedures that can be avoided by their model they have created called the ''Hematuria risk index'' which can be used instead.--(not sure i agree but thats what it says)

ps-your link doesnt work
/ (http://share.kaiserpermanente.org/article/kaiser-permanente-study-suggests-tests-routinely-done-on-patients-with-microscopic-blood-in-urine-can-be-avoided/)

The study "concludes that patients with microscopic hematuria, especially those under 50 years of age and with no history of gross hematuria (visible blood in the urine), may not benefit from further evaluation and therefore could avoid routine tests that contain unnecessary risks such as radiation exposure from CT scans and invasive endoscopy."


They then "created a model to predict renal and bladder cancer risk. Called the Hematuria Risk Index, the model assigns points for specific cancer risk factors. Higher risk factors, such as a history of gross hematuria and patient age of 50 years or over, are assigned four points, while lower risk factors, such as a history of smoking, and patients who are male, are given one point. Researchers were then able to group patients into low, moderate and high risk of renal or bladder cancer."


The cxBladder Triage test also requires these type of questions as part of the evaluation process. It essentially does the same thing as their model but I dare say with a lot more accuracy. Anyway take from it what you will.


P.S. I did correct the link in a subsequent post.

[skid]

Absolutely I agree-alot more accuracy(Triage)--(although the articles(AUA-Annals) do cast doubt and we cant ignore that -even if they are not thorough enough)--Just haveing some real doubts about the way the whole system is unfolding over there,in terms of decisions on whether to run with the product and uptake if they do.

I see you updated:) our posts probably passed in cyber land

[Snow Leopard]

There is good statistical evidence that regular PSA testing for prostate cancer saves no lives whatsoever.
Some sets of data show that for every person saved through diagnosis and successful treatment there is another person without cancer who dies caused by the risks involved in the subsequent diagnostics.

But on to Bladder Cancer...

So the article is a simple statistically analysis which concludes what hopefully every urologist at least empirically knows: that your [bladder] cancer risk varies depending upon a number of factors.

Triage uses a slightly less simple statistical analysis.

With Triage you do the actual test and then skew the result based on the patient details.

But what you could do is apply the statistics first and if the risk is low enough, send them home with a couple of aspirin and instructions to come back in a month if they are not better. You would just do the CxBladder test on the higher risk people.

I bet Kaiser are, with this CxBladder trail are trying to get some decent data on whether/where it could efficiently (i.e. save money) fit into their regime.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

There is good statistical evidence that regular PSA testing for prostate cancer saves no lives whatsoever.
Some sets of data show that for every person saved through diagnosis and successful treatment there is another person without cancer who dies caused by the risks involved in the subsequent diagnostics.

But on to Bladder Cancer...

So the article is a simple statistically analysis which concludes what hopefully every urologist at least empirically knows: that your [bladder] cancer risk varies depending upon a number of factors.

Triage uses a slightly less simple statistical analysis.

With Triage you do the actual test and then skew the result based on the patient details.

But what you could do is apply the statistics first and if the risk is low enough, send them home with a couple of aspirin and instructions to come back in a month if they are not better. You would just do the CxBladder test on the higher risk people.

I bet Kaiser are, with this CxBladder trail are trying to get some decent data on whether/where it could efficiently (i.e. save money) fit into their regime.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Applying the stats first would certainly cut down on the test numbers...Dang(I knew I should have invested in that Aspirin company)

[Carpenterjoe]

There is good statistical evidence that regular PSA testing for prostate cancer saves no lives whatsoever.
Some sets of data show that for every person saved through diagnosis and successful treatment there is another person without cancer who dies caused by the risks involved in the subsequent diagnostics.

But on to Bladder Cancer...

So the article is a simple statistically analysis which concludes what hopefully every urologist at least empirically knows: that your [bladder] cancer risk varies depending upon a number of factors.

Triage uses a slightly less simple statistical analysis.

With Triage you do the actual test and then skew the result based on the patient details.

But what you could do is apply the statistics first and if the risk is low enough, send them home with a couple of aspirin and instructions to come back in a month if they are not better. You would just do the CxBladder test on the higher risk people.

I bet Kaiser are, with this CxBladder trail are trying to get some decent data on whether/where it could efficiently (i.e. save money) fit into their regime.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I hope Kaiser can find a few bucks out of the $56 400 000 000 (56.4 billion) of revenue they pulled in last year.

They sure need a product/system to reduce the 80-200k each patient caulks up for treatment and Diagnosing of bladder cancer.

Thinking Edison might need to improve their proof reading, looks like it was written by a tradie.

[Crackity]

[QUOTE=Carpenterjoe;597907

Thinking Edison might need to improve their proof reading, looks like it was written by a tradie.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, nah - that's pretty standard for them...;)

then again maybe PEB only paid for the bronze level research package?

[Minerbarejet]

Particularly enjoyed the 715m revenue on the last page though, looked good there for a while.

You enjoyed today, TJ, I hope.

And Crackity you are doing excellent job of imitating a joker we used to have here called, ----damn,---- something 900 I think it was.
Move along people, nothing to see. Hahaha

[Crackity]

Up 9.5 % in one day - man those Edison people are good;)

[pierre]

Up 9.5 % in one day - man those Edison people are good;)

Keep paying them PEB - it's working!

[skid]

Up 9.5 % in one day - man those Edison people are good;)

and not the first time thats happened--who says day traders cant make a buck on this share:)

Disc-I am not a day trader--day trading may be hazardous to your health

[Crackity]

Particularly enjoyed the 715m revenue on the last page though, looked good there for a while.

You enjoyed today, TJ, I hope.

And Crackity you are doing excellent job of imitating a joker we used to have here called, ----damn,---- something 900 I think it was.
Move along people, nothing to see. Hahaha

I'm man not moose ;) but I'll take that as a compliment.

[skid]

I'm man not moose ;) but I'll take that as a compliment.

especially since moosie sold @ probably closer to $1 than forty something--Moosie learned his lesson with DIL

[Minerbarejet]

Good idea. Everyone is simply speculating on what might happen. Despite the "tens of thousands" of tests drama, the company has not given specific guidance so we will all just have to wait and see.

If I was DD I would be holding off signing any new agreements until a day or two prior to the 26 November results announcement....just saying!

Nothing on the radar yet, Pierre.:)

[OldGuy]

With the results announcement looming, I would strongly recommend people to consider placing some stop losses. There is every chance that these results will really underwhelm, and I think the market will react swiftly and accordingly.

This is just my opinion, and not investment advice - DYOR!

[Biscuit]

.... I would strongly recommend people to consider placing some stop losses......This is just my opinion, and not investment advice - DYOR!

"Stop-losses are a good idea" well, that's an opinion "I would strongly recommend people to consider placing some stop losses" sounds a lot like investment advice?

[OldGuy]

"Stop-losses are a good idea" well, that's an opinion "I would strongly recommend people to consider placing some stop losses" sounds a lot like investment advice?

Ok, mate.

I've watched this company very closely for 2.5 years and am pretty confident that this week's result will be terrible. However, I don't have perfect foresight and anything could happen.

Well good luck either way if you are holding.

[OldGuy]

note that I also never said "stop losses are a good idea."

You're not that good at this whole internet thing, are you? :cool:

[Cricketfan]

note that I also never said "stop losses are a good idea."


That was his point - i.e. if you had've said that, that would be an opinion. What you actually said was more like investment advice.

[OldGuy]

Look, I don't really care tbh. The last sentence of my post clearly indicated the need for others to DYOR.

[pierre]

Nothing on the radar yet, Pierre.:)

You're right Miner - but I'm not DD so looks like he has different ideas from me! Anyway the SP closed at 47c today after fluctuating up over the past week, so maybe Mr Market is expecting something interesting in the half-year report.

[trader_jackson]

47c is still a bargain, and those that got in at under 40 were incredibly lucky (although it is a shame that 'little retail shareholders panic' once again fell victim to the bigger institutions and [probably] traders, whats funny is that this has happened several times now)...

Anyway, results are just a couple of days away, the time is almost here!

[Minerbarejet]

You're right Miner - but I'm not DD so looks like he has different ideas from me! Anyway the SP closed at 47c today after fluctuating up over the past week, so maybe Mr Market is expecting something interesting in the half-year report.
MM may very well be right in expecting something interesting. If he can munch his way up to about 95 cents would be a good start.
That lab throughput of 19% should be treated with caution in relation to revenue especially on the downside.
They dont usually kick much out on Mondays anyway, especially US stuff.
Day behind and all that.

[pierre]

MM may very well be right in expecting something interesting. If he can munch his way up to about 95 cents would be a good start.
That lab throughput of 19% should be treated with caution in relation to revenue especially on the downside.
They dont usually kick much out on Mondays anyway, especially US stuff.
Day behind and all that.

95 cents would be great - though I'd be happy to get to break-even at 73 cents as a first step. I was tempted to average down over recent times but have decided to hold tight in the meantime. Let's see what Thursday brings. I'm not very optimistic there will be anything to cause a 50% leap in the SP, but you never know...stranger things have happened!

If the news is only OK and not fabulous, inevitably there will be a downwards slide, even if the talk is positive - as it equally inevitably will be!

Still, I'm in for the long term and happy to ride the waves. I'm waiting for PEB to turn into another BLT where I'm currently well ahead and expecting even greater things to happen over the next six months.

[Minerbarejet]

95 cents would be great - though I'd be happy to get to break-even at 73 cents as a first step. I was tempted to average down over recent times but have decided to hold tight in the meantime. Let's see what Thursday brings. I'm not very optimistic there will be anything to cause a 50% leap in the SP, but you never know...stranger things have happened!

If the news is only OK and not fabulous, inevitably there will be a downwards slide, even if the talk is positive - as it equally inevitably will be!

Still, I'm in for the long term and happy to ride the waves. I'm waiting for PEB to turn into another BLT where I'm currently well ahead and expecting even greater things to happen over the next six months.
Stranger things have happened alright, dont forget PEB suddenly went from 50 to 1.72 thanks to MM
Just got to change that sediment. Lol

[skid]

47c is still a bargain, and those that got in at under 40 were incredibly lucky (although it is a shame that 'little retail shareholders panic' once again fell victim to the bigger institutions and [probably] traders, whats funny is that this has happened several times now)...

Anyway, results are just a couple of days away, the time is almost here!

There are so many assumptions in those few sentences I dont know where to start---upcoming results certainly spurs interest though.--im still standing behind my theory of buying (or holding)on interest and selling before results.----.95c?--I dont think so --(we are into the ''stranger things have happened''category-now.----Could someone explain to me how 19% more tests can = more than 19% more sales?
who is distributing their product in Australia now?

I really cant logically see how anything other than a big announcement can boost SP substantially when results do arrive(although Im assuming they cannot ''save'' an announcement for results date)--(but they can of course say the ole," things are progressing nicely"

IMO things are starting to get a bit carried away at this stage but we shall see---as you say, stranger things have happened.

If the results need to be sugar coated and ''look to the future''is required --best beware

[Minerbarejet]

There are so many assumptions in those few sentences I dont know where to start---upcoming results certainly spurs interest though.--im still standing behind my theory of buying (or holding)on interest and selling before results.----.95c?--I dont think so --(we are into the ''stranger things have happened''category-now.----Could someone explain to me how 19% more tests can = more than 19% more sales?
who is distributing their product in Australia now?

I really cant logically see how anything other than a big announcement can boost SP substantially when results do arrive(although Im assuming they cannot ''save'' an announcement for results date)--(but they can of course say the ole," things are progressing nicely"

IMO things are starting to get a bit carried away at this stage but we shall see---as you say, stranger things have happened.

If the results need to be sugar coated and ''look to the future''is required --best beware
For goodness sake, Skid, surely you can work that out for yourself.
Start by accepting the fact that User Programs are not free.
Once you take that on board all sorts of possibilities open up.
Have fun
Cheers
Miner

[Meister]

For goodness sake, Skid, surely you can work that out for yourself.
Start by accepting the fact that User Programs are not free.


I could be way off here but that actually seems to be more of a negative in that it makes the revenue increases they really need to be 'on track' look way less likely.
We can't be sure what percentage of the previous throughput were sales, it could be as low as 10% of the throughput.
IF that were the case and the user programs were free, then the revenue is entirely due to sales, and even with a 0% increase in throughput the sales (and therefore revenue) could be way up due to user program conversions, double or more (to 20%+ of the throughput).
Unfortunately if the user programs are not free (and are worth some reasonable percentage of what a sale would constitute), then revenue is actually 10% sales, 90% user programs, and even with a 19% increase in throughput we can't be expecting revenue to have doubled, even if sales doubled!

[pierre]

I think we should all wait for Thursday's announcement. Then we can all comment on whatever current reality is revealed and laugh at or appreciate whatever is forecast for the future.

Getting wound up over speculation seems a bit pointless to me.

[winner69]

The stars are aligned and a full moon Thursday ....



..... and PEB will do a ATM and double in price

[Minerbarejet]

I could be way off here but that actually seems to be more of a negative in that it makes the revenue increases they really need to be 'on track' look way less likely.
We can't be sure what percentage of the previous throughput were sales, it could be as low as 10% of the throughput.
IF that were the case and the user programs were free, then the revenue is entirely due to sales, and even with a 0% increase in throughput the sales (and therefore revenue) could be way up due to user program conversions, double or more (to 20%+ of the throughput).
Unfortunately if the user programs are not free (and are worth some reasonable percentage of what a sale would constitute), then revenue is actually 10% sales, 90% user programs, and even with a 19% increase in throughput we can't be expecting revenue to have doubled, even if sales doubled!
You are onto it, mate.
However, this relates to the ratio remaining the same.
If the UPs tests tail off then they can only be replaced with Full Price Tests in order to account for the throughput. Every reduction of ten percent in the UP to FP relationship amounts to an increase of .7 mil in revenue using a starting 70/30 at a UP price of 20% of 550 over the last two FY results.
We have been led to believe that the number of user programs have reduced because of seasonal factors therefore what does the 19% consist of mainly?
Of course if you really want to have a good look at it with that scenario you might find a tens of thousands of test in there somewhere. Probably after the FY 15 result at 90/10 using revenues as declared and a 20% User Program price of 110.00.

[Snow Leopard]

'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'


...We have been led to believe that the number of user programs have reduced because of seasonal factors...

You have, we have not.

What it says is
"1H16 reflects the transition of User Programmes to commercial use in New Zealand, and the seasonal downturn in the USA in July and August".
What that means, in numbers, is anybodies guess.

Just remember they announced first commercial sales a long time ago and have still not announced second commercial sales :D.

Still, not long to go to the announcement now, and then we all will be just as confused as we were before.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Cricketfan]

Getting wound up over speculation seems a bit pointless to me.

That's what the vast majority of this thread is made up of!

[Minerbarejet]

Still, not long to go to the announcement now, and then we all will be just as confused as we were before.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
You perhaps, but others may not.:)

[nextbigthing]

That's what the vast majority of this thread is made up of!

And the vast majority of the shareprice

[skid]

For goodness sake, Skid, surely you can work that out for yourself.
Start by accepting the fact that User Programs are not free.
Once you take that on board all sorts of possibilities open up.
Have fun
Cheers
Miner

That would not show up on sales because user programs are not a sure thing and even if they were accepted your talking future reinvestment so its a non event in terms of tomorrows results (back to sugar coated ''look to the future'') If you think thats going to show up tomorrow then maybe you had better work that out for me cause I aint seeing it.

If this thing goes pear shaped and Kaiser doesnt run with it, I would raise the possibility that the tests would be free because they would not be accepted for use(as the AUA has cast into doubt)

[skid]

Stranger things have happened alright, dont forget PEB suddenly went from 50 to 1.72 thanks to MM
Just got to change that sediment. Lol

You can always dream..but I think your misspelling hits closer to the mark:)

[skid]

The stars are aligned and a full moon Thursday ....



..... and PEB will do a ATM and double in price

Ahh man ...your right...I forgot to factor that in!......All good..:)

of course your right Pierre--we are just amusing ourselves at this stage (but it does help in how we go about making decisions in the future)--If it did double in price ,then obviously I would have to take that on board and factor that in to my line of thinking--and if the opposite happens I suppose others would be smart to do the same.

[Balance]

PEB better announce some significant developments tomorrow - otherwise the 4 principal institutional shareholders in there will continue to have to suck shares.

Harbour & FNZC - 10.10%

Devon - 6.20%

Westpac - 6.33%


Salt - 8.17%

[Carpenterjoe]

Hopefully tomorrow brings us shareholders closer to the 7.5m it costs to run the US operation annually. Anything towards 3.5-4m would be outstanding, but I feel around the 2million mark is more likely.

[Crackity]

You can always dream..but I think your misspelling hits closer to the mark:)

That got a LOL!

[Minerbarejet]

You can always dream..but I think your misspelling hits closer to the mark:)
Leave my secretary, Miss Pelling, out of this or Ill send her around for a chat.:)
She hits close to the mark alright. Lol
Keep up , Skid. Sediment was an obvious preemptive typing mistake from way back.
Looking forward to tomorrow, arent you?
Do all have a nice day
Cheers as usual
Miner

[skid]

Leave my secretary, Miss Pelling, out of this or Ill send her around for a chat.:)
She hits close to the mark alright. Lol
Keep up , Skid. Sediment was an obvious preemptive typing mistake from way back.
Looking forward to tomorrow, arent you?
Do all have a nice day
Cheers as usual
Miner

Tomorrow???---Oh Yea ...the full moon!

[winner69]

A 238% increase in commercial sales is pretty impressive

[winner69]

Like this bit from David - Pacific Edge is a young company,

Heck hey seem to have been around forever

Even this thread has been going 10 years

[ddrone]

A 238% increase in commercial sales is pretty impressive

On the same six month period. It's not nearly that impressive when compared with 2H15.

[BigBob]

A 238% increase in commercial sales is pretty impressive

Pacific Edge Financial Results for the Six Months Ended 30 September 2015
- 238% increase in commercial sales to $1.80 million (HY15: $0.53m), almost equal to full year commercial sales revenue achieved in FY15 (FY15: $1.90m)
- 8% increase in total revenue to $2.69 million (HY15: $1.60m)
- Investment in accelerated rollout of USA sales strategy and continued investment into people and protection of intellectual property reflected in Net Loss of $6.42 million (HY15: $4.73m)
- Cash on hand, cash equivalents and short term deposits of $32.72 million (HY15: $14.71m), including proceeds from successful $35.3 million capital raising completed in July 2015


Looks pretty good to me too, but nothing new on progress with VA, Kaiser and CMS...

[Meister]

About 30% sales growth compared to 2nd half 2015. Better than 19% but not as much as what I was personally looking for. This company is valued at 170M - it has some work to do.

[winner69]

Cash burn of $9.0m ($6m last year) and cynically not far off the fll year last year figure.

Customers don't seem to pay much in actual cash - all on the never never?

[Baa_Baa]

Equity is propped up by the cash injection making the bottom line asset look better than actual performance would have been, losses widening significantly, (don't look at the accumulated losses -too depressing) ... but yes sales up from a low base is encouraging. Success for PEB seems so far away and it's been a long road to here. How do you value the SP for this company, is it just whatever the insto's were prepared to pay last CR?

[Meister]

Expect to have CLIA approval for US laboratory by the time we launch our full scale commercial activity in the USA in January 2016.

This triage approval has been pushed back a few times? At the AGM they thought it was going to be around October/November...

[NZSilver]

1.8 million revenue for the half year, not to far off the fy 100 mil revenue target in 2017/18. And don't forget they had a 9 million $$ loss, 30 mil cash won't last that long unless revenues really grow. Next Capital Raising at 15 cents?

[OldGuy]

If you draw a line through the top of each bar in the revenue chart you can see that, in theory, sales have already matured and are near to saturation levels.

Something really special is going to have to happen to increase their sales nearly another 5,000% to reach the $100m target.

Good luck to those that still believe.

[winner69]

Wonder what the 'secret group' is saying - the chatter is deafening

[Leftfield]

Me happy, a increase 238% in commercial sales shows some of the potential ahead. I see this as a 'business as usual' result with any real impetus still awaiting VA, Kaiser results etc likely in first 6 months of 2016. Disc; still holding, and glad I topped up in the 30's.

[skid]

OK my 2c--first thing I noticed was that the SP had almost stayed the same (so far) so nothing monumental has happened. To me going on percentages for such small figures and large goals are misleading in terms of progress--I think this will become more obvious once it soaks in.
I dont think we have learned much from this result which is basically more of the same (except that there were sales which takes it out of the catastrophic category) but we still need to look to the future for success(this is not success-not yet at least)
they will not go under (even if things dont work )because of the cash from the cap raising(1/3 of the goal of 100mil)will keep operations going.--But its still the same story of waiting and hoping that Kaiser and other sign ups will not only happen ,but will result in big numbers(that exponential leap required) and all before that next better option comes along from a competitor backed by a big corp.
So my guess ids that they will stumble along in this range (with occasional dips?) until something happens--but not forever --as time goes by more holders may become disenchanted.
SP at this level is realistic for now---but may get worse before it gets better.

[skid]

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/serve_pdf.php?d=researchreports&f=NZPEBE0002S1PacificEdgeUpdate171115.pdf&utm_campaign=171812_Pacific%20Edge%20-%20Moving%20towards%20key%20decision%20points%2015 372&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Edison%20Investment%20Research%20Limite d&dm_i=2PWO,3OKK,2GNG9O,B1VD,1

For those who want to make a comparison from projected (Edison)to actual

[Snow Leopard]

"Transition of User Programmes to Commercial Use in New Zealand" = Two consecutive halves of shrinking revenue for the NZ lab

US growth in NZ$ also benefits (a bit) from the US/NZ exchange rate change over the last year. I guess US$ Half on Half gain is no more than 25%.

Cash outflow $8M8, FY target $15M2, might be the only thing they exceed.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Don't hold but disappointed all the same :crying:.

[Balance]

2 years after announcing with gusto :

Nov 2013 : "we are working with large commercial payers and the Centre for
Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which provides healthcare insurance to
approximately 150 million people. Other large urology customers being
targeted include the large Integrated Healthcare Systems, the Veterans
Administration (VA), and Large Urology Group Practices (LUGS), who are the
point of contact for many patients presenting with haematuria (blood in the
urine) which is an early indicator of possible bladder cancer."

The update is all bad news - still negotiating with no end in sight to access CMS (initial target date to conclude deal - August 2014) and VA.

Something is fundamentally wrong with how PEB is going about its commercialization process and more capital raisings are definitely going to be required to fund the horrendous cash drain as evidenced by the fact PEB would be broke but for the last capital raising.

Cold hard reality is going to be that no underwriters will be around for the next issue if the last underwrite is indicative of how the company is going.

[winner69]

2 years after announcing with gusto :

Nov 2013 : "we are working with large commercial payers and the Centre for
Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which provides healthcare insurance to
approximately 150 million people. Other large urology customers being
targeted include the large Integrated Healthcare Systems, the Veterans
Administration (VA), and Large Urology Group Practices (LUGS), who are the
point of contact for many patients presenting with haematuria (blood in the
urine) which is an early indicator of possible bladder cancer."

The update is all bad news - still negotiating with no end in sight to access CMS (initial target date to conclude deal - August 2014) and VA.

Something is fundamentally wrong with how PEB is going about its commercialization process and more capital raisings are definitely going to be required to fund the horrendous cash drain as evidenced by the fact PEB would be broke but for the last capital raising.

Cold hard reality is going to be that no underwriters will be around for the next issue if the last underwrite is indicative of how the company is going.

You forgotten Balance - David's definition of 'successful commercialisation' is getting a product to market. That's success - profit not part of the equation.

He's achieved success - just like the previous commercialisation he was led (still not making money)

[Balance]

You forgotten Balance - David's definition of 'successful commercialisation' is getting a product to market. That's success - profit not part of the equation.

He's achieved success - just like the previous commercialisation he was led (still not making money)

And he says PEB is on target and it's business as per usual!

Thant means more of the same in future.

Scary thought!

[Crackity]

It's only down 1 cent to 44 - things can't be too bad!

thought I'd play for the other side for a bit as it appears they have left the field for a tea break ;)

[Balance]

It's only down 1 cent to 44 - things can't be too bad!

thought I'd play for the other side for a bit as it appears they have left the field for a tea break ;)

Only due to the 4 institutions, using their investors' funds, continuing to buy to stop their funds performances looking even worse than they already are.

Soon they will own the whole company. :(

[Crackity]

Only due to the 4 institutions, using their investors' funds, continuing to buy to stop their funds performances looking even worse than they already are.

Soon they will own the whole company. :(

Its all part of the plan Balance - ( this statement works best if you insert a Dr Evil laugh about here) ;)

[Balance]

From an exSTposter :

There are many red flags with Pacific Edge, but I will only point out 2 today:

1) The HY-on-HY actual sales comparison looks great with growth in the 238% increase range from $0.53M to $1.8M. The problem then arises when you dig deeper: 2H15 sales were $1.5M vs $1.8M for 1H16 (growth of $300K). It then gets worse when you add in the losses: $6.83M.

So, to grow a measly $300K they lost $6.83M. That's a cashburn ratio of $1 to $22, absolutely horrendous in any circle!

2) The lack of sales numbers on their graphs. What are they hiding? For a growth company, those graphs are less than inspiring as well. No J-curve or exponential growth which shareholders would wish for. Looks like it's flattening to me.

Now I hear that people are talking about "seasonality" in sales. Are you kidding me? Cancer doesn't crop up based on "seasons"!

So much clutching at straws right now...

************************************

They are getting their next round of excuses ready - something about retail investors who do not understand 'risks'.

One guesses that risk for PEB = investors not prepared to put any more money in to support the cash burn?

[winner69]

Balance - they are a 'young company' according to David

Give them time

[Balance]

Balance - they are a 'young company' according to David

Give them time

David obviously think he still looks 25 years old?

Certainly talks like an 20 year old wet behind the ear science graduate :D

[Snow Leopard]

So how come everyone is now a spokes-poster for someone who is no longer here ?


...1) The HY-on-HY actual sales comparison looks great with growth in the 238% increase range from $0.53M to $1.8M. The problem then arises when you dig deeper: 2H15 sales were $1.5M vs $1.8M for 1H16 (growth of $300K). It then gets worse when you add in the losses: $6.83M.

So, to grow a measly $300K they lost $6.83M. That's a cashburn ratio of $1 to $22, absolutely horrendous in any circle!...

Well the 2HY15 sales of $1.5M was actually $1M366 and the losses for that period $5M841
Compare with 1H16 sales of $1M797 and losses of $6M422 so your meaningless ratio is actually:

$1 to $1.35


Now I hear that people are talking about "seasonality" in sales. Are you kidding me? Cancer doesn't crop up based on "seasons"!


There is no evidence that cancer is particular seasonal, but lots that visiting the doctor for such things is.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Crackity]

So how come everyone is now a spokes-poster for someone who is no longer

3 possibilities immediately spring to mind PT ....

1. The B word

2. They got bored with our witty repartee

3. They made so much money that they are cruising the Pacific in
large yachts where Internet coverage is not the best till one of those Magic Google balloons floats over....

:)

[Balance]

So how come everyone is now a spokes-poster for someone who is no longer here ?

Well the 2HY15 sales of $1.5M was actually $1M366 and the losses for that period $5M841
Compare with 1H16 sales of $1M797 and losses of $6M422 so your meaningless ratio is actually:

$1 to $1.35

There is no evidence that cancer is particular seasonal, but lots that visiting the doctor for such things is.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific-edge-first-half-loss-widens-ramps-sales-us-b-182135 (Refer exSTposter here)

Another way of looking at sales vs expenses:

Sales increased from $531k to $1797k = $1266k increase
Expenses increased from $6457k to $9702k = $3245k

So it's $2.56 of cost to generate $1 of additional sales.

At this rate, they will need to find another $256m of new capital every year to generate the $100m of sales!

Scary thought!

[black knat]

There seem to have been a few casualties on this thread. I'm still here.... minus 1500 odd posts.

[Baa_Baa]

From an exSTposter : ..snip .. One wonders whether the grass is even green on the other side.

[Snow Leopard]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific-edge-first-half-loss-widens-ramps-sales-us-b-182135 (Refer exSTposter here)

Another way of looking at sales vs expenses:

Sales increased from $531k to $1797k = $1266k increase
Expenses increased from $6457k to $9702k = $3245k

So it's $2.56 of cost to generate $1 of additional sales.

At this rate, they will need to find another $256m of new capital every year to generate the $100m of sales!

Scary thought!

Lol - so that is where the Moose lives these days - I notice that he is NOT a subscriber, and neither is Anonymous.

We can argue about the meaning of numbers such as above for ever.

So here is another one:

If the current half-year cash flow is maintained then PEB has less than two years left (till 6-Aug-17 to be precise).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: I will not at this point, point out that Balance and I used to disagree on PEB - he thought it was wonderful and I urged caution.

[Minerbarejet]

One wonders whether the grass is even green on the other side.
Lol. You were right the first time. Very clever.

[trader_jackson]

Well i could come out with my usual periodic waffle, but I thought I tonight I would cut straight to the point...

Yes, we can all cherry pick the numbers and come out with outrageous statements like "$256m of new capital every year to generate the $100m of sales!" but i decided to compare the numbers, the best way numbers year on year should be compared: by looking at the percentages of increase between them. Obviously the key thing here is to make sure sales is increasing more than expenses, and, well it looks pretty good to me..

We could point say 'the momentum is gone', but considering they have yet to sign any major contracts what so ever, and still sales are increasing more than expenses (% wise) just imagine if they do happen to get a biggy (or any..)? If this happens, it is an incredibly scalable product (as we should all know by now..), so they don't suddenly have to poor millions and millions of dollars in to producing a couple more tests: the foundation has been laid... therefore cost per test dramatically decreases, while profit dramatically increases.

They now have 16 sales executives who are all working flat out to get contracts together (one would hope)... The next 12-24 months for PEB will be defining for the company.

It is far from a sure bet, but even if 15 of those executives failed to do anything significant for the next year (this is highly unlikely but given the number of pessimists on this thread I thought I would have a go and throwing an outlandish statement out...), but 1 happened to get a 'biggy' (ignoring the other 2 still to be hired), PEB could still hit the $100m target... anyway I'll let my breif numbers do the talking from here (I have colour coded it to make it easier to compare :t_up:)

PLEASE NOTE:
- I might have stuffed the numbers up (please correct me if I have...)
- They are comparing half year (6 months to September 14) would be nice if someone did the same for full year..?

"Financial rewards follow accomplishment, they don't precede it." - Harry F. Banks
7746

[Crackity]

Well i could come out with my usual periodic waffle, but I thought I tonight I would cut straight to the point...

Yes, we can all cherry pick the numbers and come out with outrageous statements like "$256m of new capital every year to generate the $100m of sales!" but i decided to compare the numbers, the best way numbers year on year should be compared: by looking at the percentages of increase between them. Obviously the key thing here is to make sure sales is increasing more than expenses, and, well it looks pretty good to me..

We could point say 'the momentum is gone', but considering they have yet to sign any major contracts what so ever, and still sales are increasing more than expenses (% wise) just imagine if they do happen to get a biggy (or any..)? If this happens, it is an incredibly scalable product (as we should all know by now..), so they don't suddenly have to poor millions and millions of dollars in to producing a couple more tests: the foundation has been laid... therefore cost per test dramatically decreases, while profit dramatically increases.

They now have 16 sales executives who are all working flat out to get contracts together (one would hope)... The next 12-24 months for PEB will be defining for the company.

It is far from a sure bet, but even if 15 of those executives failed to do anything significant for the next year (this is highly unlikely but given the number of pessimists on this thread I thought I would have a go and throwing an outlandish statement out...), but 1 happened to get a 'biggy' (ignoring the other 2 still to be hired), PEB could still hit the $100m target... anyway I'll let my breif numbers do the talking from here (I have colour coded it to make it easier to compare :t_up:)

PLEASE NOTE:
- I might have stuffed the numbers up (please correct me if I have...)
- They are comparing half year (6 months to September 14) would be nice if someone did the same for full year..?

"Financial rewards follow accomplishment, they don't precede it." - Harry F. Banks
7746

Yay - back from tea break - are we using the colored ball for the rest of the session? - now where is the rest of the team. ;)

[Snow Leopard]

...but i decided to compare the numbers, the best way numbers year on year should be compared: by looking at the percentages of increase between them...

"Financial rewards follow accomplishment, they don't precede it." - Harry F. Banks...

Very good :t_up:.

Now as a reward would you prefer

100% of $10

or

50% of $50

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Crackity]

Very good :t_up:.

Now as a reward would you prefer

100% of $10

or

50% of $50

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


As opening batsman I'll have a swing at that beamer TJ

hmmm - $10 vs $ 25 - My team will go for the later thanks PT

:)

[Balance]

PS: I will not at this point, point out that Balance and I used to disagree on PEB - he thought it was wonderful and I urged caution.

And I am the first to agree with that, and the first to also alert all on this forum of my change in view when the company failed to deliver on the many expectations and lofty utterances made by the directors and management.

And many of us made money before I changed my view and urged others to get out before the inevitable happened.

The biggest red flag in recent times was the directors not putting any money into the latest capital raising.

[Balance]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8537-Fph/page18

Transparency and disclosure - PEB is the direct opposite of this real Kiwi biomed success story.

[trader_jackson]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8537-Fph/page18

Transparency and disclosure - PEB is the direct opposite of this real Kiwi biomed success story.

And to think people use to dog such a great success story that is F&P... oh wait that is exactly what happens on the PEB thread every day!

[Balance]

And to think people use to dog such a great success story that is F&P... oh wait that is exactly what happens on the PEB thread every day!

That is like stating that Syria is a great example of Middle Eastern nationhood!

[OldGuy]

TJ: if revenues are growing faster than costs, as you seem to have implied, shouldn't the loss be smaller or the profit bigger?

[Balance]

So the 'brave' underwriters who took stock at 61c are now 30% down the gurgler - 5 months after handing over their $$$ to stop the company from going broke. Their losses on their underlying positions would be worse.

As I have stated before, only buyers left are the 4 institutions/underwriters who have no choice but to buy and hold the price up to protect their reputation and performances. Others are taking the opportunity to exit while those instos have no choice but to buy.

I copped a ban, making a similar observation in June when the sp was over 60 cents, for helping posters save money.

[silu]

I copped a ban, making a similar observation in June when the sp was over 60 cents, for helping posters save money.

And thanks in part to you I sold my holding at $1.28 for a small loss. Sometimes you need someone to pull away the wool from your eyes.

[skid]

To put it simply-forget the numbers--they have to get a big signup-and if they get it, lots and lots of tests have to be sold,and for that to happen,they have to be perceived as the best,out of the urine tests(which in themselves have to be perceived as worth their salt) until something better comes along.

In terms of changing ones viewpoint on any share--the ability to look at new information and make decisions accordingly(even if that means reversing your stance) is a good,rather than bad thing(one has to be flexible)--The thing to watch out for though, is if it is for the reason of talking up or down which benefit whether one has bought in or looking to buy in rather than the information itself.Or just stubbornly holding and hoping.

This co is not going to make it,as things are now(at least in the form that investors are hoping)
It needs to be funded (covered) by the US gov.Medicare or another large outfit --That is the hope--until then updates and results will not really have much impact IMO

So research really should not be about numbers or %--it should be about anything that will influence whether these coverage's happen.--Then..the next step is numbers

[kiwidollabill]

^ How many biotech companies have gone bust despite claims massive sales were 'just around the corner'? BIO, GNE....

[Balance]

^ How many biotech companies have gone bust despite claims massive sales were 'just around the corner'? BIO, GNE....

Aborgen is still claiming that after 2 decades or more of bleeding money for its shareholders.

[winner69]

Aborgen is still claiming that after 2 decades or more of bleeding money for its shareholders.

PEB about same point in the 'commercialisation cycle' as Arborgen was when David left them ...hmm

[Balance]

"Well positioned to capitalise on CxBladder" says Forbar. :D

Nov 2014 - Sp was 93 cents, now 42.5c - down 55%

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/325448/pacific-edge-profit-positive-sign

" Forsyth Barr broker, Haley Van Leeuwen, said progress appeared to be on target and believed Pacific Edge was well positioned to capitalise on the ''substantial opportunity'' in commercialising Cxbladder.

''There is nothing in the result to change our positive stance and outperform rating,'' Mrs Van Leeuwen said."

Nov 2015 - Sp now 42.5c so Nov 2016, sp will be 20c?

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/364853/pacific-edge-sales-still-no-profit

" Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said 2016 was an important year for Pacific Edge. The company was ''well positioned'' to capitalise on its bladder cancer technology.

The $1.8million product sales had beaten Forsyth Barr's prediction of $1.3million, although the $7million loss was greater than its prediction of $5.9million."

[winner69]

That ODT article

This bit ''While they are making inroads into sales, expenses are still outstripping revenue,'' Mr McIntyre said. seems to contradict t_j analysis

[Biscuit]

"Well positioned to capitalise on CxBladder" says Forbar. :D

Nov 2014 - Sp was 93 cents, now 42.5c - down 55%

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/325448/pacific-edge-profit-positive-sign

" Forsyth Barr broker, Haley Van Leeuwen, said progress appeared to be on target and believed Pacific Edge was well positioned to capitalise on the ''substantial opportunity'' in commercialising Cxbladder.

''There is nothing in the result to change our positive stance and outperform rating,'' Mrs Van Leeuwen said."

Nov 2015 - Sp now 42.5c so Nov 2016, sp will be 20c?

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/364853/pacific-edge-sales-still-no-profit

" Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said 2016 was an important year for Pacific Edge. The company was ''well positioned'' to capitalise on its bladder cancer technology.

The $1.8million product sales had beaten Forsyth Barr's prediction of $1.3million, although the $7million loss was greater than its prediction of $5.9million."

DD's been "upbeat" and "optimistic" for several years - its only when they are "hopeful" that you know for certain that it is all over.

[trader_jackson]

Well nobody has yet to explain why revenues and sales are increasing, still, far more than that of expenses (in terms of %), now to spell it out, if this trend continues, then revenues will exceed expenses, and profit will be made.

Anyway, FYI Forsyth Barr have maintained there $1 per share recommendation, with revenues coming ahead of expectations.

[Balance]

Well nobody has yet to explain why revenues and sales are increasing, still, far more than that of expenses (in terms of %), now to spell it out, if this trend continues, then revenues will exceed expenses, and profit will be made.

Anyway, FYI Forsyth Barr have maintained there $1 per share recommendation, with revenues coming ahead of expectations.

Yes, just like Forbar maintained outperform on PEB in Nov 2014 when the sp was 93 cents? :D

[Crackity]

Yes, just like Forbar maintained outperform on PEB in Nov 2014 when the sp was 93 cents? :D

We all know Forbar is a professional firm with some of the best analysts in the business - everything will be just hunky dory people ;)

[blackcap]

We all know Forbar is a professional firm with some of the best analysts in the business - everything will be just hunky dory people ;)

Classic, best laugh I have had today :)

[Crackity]

Classic, best laugh I have had today :)

I try to amuse ;) and sometimes I put my serious hat on :blush::blush: ( sorry emoji list didn't seem to have a hat.....)

[Snow Leopard]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-PEB/NZX-PEB-Future.png

There you go - PEB passage to success all in NZ$:
With a 38% increase in Income for a mere 5% increase in expenses for the US part over the last six months, projecting that forward with the rest of the company maintaining a steady loss then we have these milestones:

2 years time: US profit
3 years time: Company profit (without another capital raising
5.5 years time: $100 revenue and PEB recoups all past losses.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

errata:
for 'US loss' read 'US Profit'.

[winner69]

Hey PT - shouldn't you allow for Cost of Sales at least

Reduce the $154m profit a bit

[Snow Leopard]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-PEB/NZX-PEB-Future2.png

So maybe the $229K increase in expenses is directly related to the $505K increase in sales then - is that what you are saying winner69?

Here we go then US expenses at 45.34% of US income plus a little fixed bit.

Everything half a year later (except $100M revenue) and we just avoid an overdraft.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Someone is going to ask about income tax next - I just know it.

[Jantar]

.....
PS: Someone is going to ask about income tax next - I just know it.
After spending some time reading this thread and deciding NOT to invest, do I have to pay income tax on avoided losses, or can I claim the time spent as tax deductible?

[Snow Leopard]

After spending some time reading this thread and deciding NOT to invest, do I have to pay income tax on avoided losses, or can I claim the time spent as tax deductible?

No, no, NO.

As an avoided loss you get a credit which can be offset against future avoided gains (from not investing in something which makes money).

You can also claim X minutes per hour at your marginal tax rate for reading and posting time.
F'rinstance: as a non-tax resident I can claim 9 minutes per hour for writing this advice.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Now back to PEB

[skid]

After spending some time reading this thread and deciding NOT to invest, do I have to pay income tax on avoided losses, or can I claim the time spent as tax deductible?

Theres no tax --Its a not for profit charity..

[Baa_Baa]

After spending some time reading this thread and deciding NOT to invest, do I have to pay income tax on avoided losses, or can I claim the time spent as tax deductible?

Not being a tax advisor, nor wanting to be, I think that you're time here is wasted, as it has been for ages, because we can't short NZ shares. Call it an expense if you can legitimately justify expenses against your investment activities otherwise right it off, like the company and the shares which are going nowhere useful anytime soon. From a simple TA perspective, one could ignore any of the dreadful fundamentals and they'd still be standing on the sidelines (safely) looking for an entry if this company ever actually makes the king hit.

[winner69]

So come 2022 we can expect a 50 cent dividend ... whats the shareprice now

[Crackity]

For anyone who has just started reading this thread I will now summarize the last 928 pages.

This company is great.

No its not.


;)

[Snow Leopard]

For anyone who has just started reading this thread I will now summarize the last 928 pages....

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-PEB/NZX-PEB-Pages.png

How come you have not paid any page tax?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

We all know Forbar is a professional firm with some of the best analysts in the business - everything will be just hunky dory people ;)

Forbar still believes honey will catch more flies than vinegar?

Outperform = honey

Underperform = vinegar

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/63469/forsyth-barr-executives-exposed-emails-published-commerce-commission-we-catch-more

[Minerbarejet]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-PEB/NZX-PEB-Future2.png

So maybe the $229K increase in expenses is directly related to the $505K increase in sales then - is that what you are saying winner69?

Here we go then US expenses at 45.34% of US income plus a little fixed bit.

Everything half a year later (except $100M revenue) and we just avoid an overdraft.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS: Someone is going to ask about income tax next - I just know it.Are we allowed to revisit this on obtaining CMS, VA, KP approvals. I have taken a copy just in case. Hope you dont mind.:)

[skid]

For anyone who has just started reading this thread I will now summarize the last 928 pages.

This company is great.

No its not.


;)

Thats a good one Cracks:) how about

the company is great=Ive lost heaps
no its not=Ive lost heaps

[skid]

Are we allowed to revisit this on obtaining CMS, VA, KP approvals. I have taken a copy just in case. Hope you dont mind.:)

well You've pretty much got it --all the chips are on the table for these things--Its absolutely necessary for them to go anywhere--but even approval does not guarantee the landslide of sales necessary--Do you know what other tests are in the pipeline for these three outfits--(That blood test, that tests for a number of cancers must be getting closer)--While we wait the world keeps turning

[Minerbarejet]

For anyone who has just started reading this thread I will now summarize the last 928 pages.

This company is great.

No its not.


;)
Everything is looking a bit black and white around here.
Still I suppose its appropriate given PEBs somewhat chequered career so far

What about the fifty shades of grey.
Or maybe a bit of colour.
Cheers
Miner

[Minerbarejet]

well You've pretty much got it --all the chips are on the table for these things--Its absolutely necessary for them to go anywhere--but even approval does not guarantee the landslide of sales necessary--Do you know what other tests are in the pipeline for these three outfits--(That blood test, that tests for a number of cancers must be getting closer)--While we wait the world keeps turning

Crikey, I didnt realise that, Skid.
Is that why that funny round shiny hot thing shows up every morning?
Thanks for letting us know.
Cheers
Miner

[skid]

Crikey, I didnt realise that, Skid.
Is that why that funny round shiny hot thing shows up every morning?
Thanks for letting us know.
Cheers
Miner

And if you still think we are operating in a vacume heres a link that just shows how the 3 big Kahunas are fighting it out in the cancer market--its not specifically about urine tests but it will give you an idea.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/27/health-cancer-atezolizumab-idUSL5N11T3LV20150927#XqumoPBHSsJk8VVy.97

If one of the big 3 comes up with a new drug to fight bladder cancer and they have a test for diagnosis (Roche-FISH) and its just about as good as CX ,and by using it you get access to their new drug for treatment---who would you run with?

[Minerbarejet]

And if you still think we are operating in a vacume heres a link that just shows how the 3 big Kahunas are fighting it out in the cancer market--its not specifically about urine tests but it will give you an idea.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/27/health-cancer-atezolizumab-idUSL5N11T3LV20150927#XqumoPBHSsJk8VVy.97

If one of the big 3 comes up with a new drug to fight bladder cancer and they have a test for diagnosis (Roche-FISH) and its just about as good as CX ,and by using it you get access to their new drug for treatment---who would you run with?
I'm not running anywhere, there are all these stumbling blocks that keep getting in the way.
(Or is that bumbling stocks)
:)
Miner

[Balance]

And if you still think we are operating in a vacume heres a link that just shows how the 3 big Kahunas are fighting it out in the cancer market--its not specifically about urine tests but it will give you an idea.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/27/health-cancer-atezolizumab-idUSL5N11T3LV20150927#XqumoPBHSsJk8VVy.97
If one of the big 3 comes up with a new drug to fight bladder cancer and they have a test for diagnosis (Roche-FISH) and its just about as good as CX ,and by using it you get access to their new drug for treatment---who would you run with?

Looking back at this thread, there are some eerie and uncanny similarities to the Pike River Coal thread:

1. Post the CxBladder approval and launch, heaps of promises and expectations with directors and the company making bold statements - but failing to deliver. PRC was similar - approval for the mine went ahead and it was downhill from there.

2. Delays after delays, excuses after excuses with no real explanations as to underlying causes.

3. Rights issue one after another (despite assurances that company will become profitable after the previous one).

4. Lack of transparency in keeping market and shareholders advised and updated as to ACTUAL numbers to track real progress.

5. Keep talking long term and blaming short term investors for share price grief.

6. PEB, just like PRC, has gone from a spectacular share price performer to being one of the worse.

And here's the real clincher - one eyed posters wanting dissenters (to the rose-tinted glasses view) banned, shut down or even the whole thread shut down!

History tells us PEB is heading in the wrong direction - time for the directors and management to front up and explain 1 to 6 above or it could be time to change directors and management, before it is too late.

[winner69]

Looking back at this thread, there are some eerie and uncanny similarities to the Pike River Coal thread:

1. Post the CxBladder approval and launch, heaps of promises and expectations with directors and the company making bold statements - but failing to deliver. PRC was similar - approval for the mine went ahead and it was downhill from there.

2. Delays after delays, excuses after excuses with no real explanations as to underlying causes.

3. Rights issue one after another (despite assurances that company will become profitable after the previous one).

4. Lack of transparency in keeping market and shareholders advised and updated as to ACTUAL numbers to track real progress.

5. Keep talking long term and blaming short term investors for share price grief.

6. PEB, just like PRC, has gone from a spectacular share price performer to being one of the worse.

And here's the real clincher - one eyed posters wanting dissenters (to the rose-tinted glasses view) banned, shut down or even the whole thread shut down!

History tells us PEB is heading in the wrong direction - time for the directors and management to front up and explain 1 to 6 above or it could be time to change directors and management, before it is too late.

Millions of tons of coal and hundreds of thousands of tests

Nice ring to it

[Minerbarejet]

Looking back at this thread, there are some eerie and uncanny similarities to the Pike River Coal thread:

1. Post the CxBladder approval and launch, heaps of promises and expectations with directors and the company making bold statements - but failing to deliver. PRC was similar - approval for the mine went ahead and it was downhill from there.

2. Delays after delays, excuses after excuses with no real explanations as to underlying causes.

3. Rights issue one after another (despite assurances that company will become profitable after the previous one).

4. Lack of transparency in keeping market and shareholders advised and updated as to ACTUAL numbers to track real progress.

5. Keep talking long term and blaming short term investors for share price grief.

6. PEB, just like PRC, has gone from a spectacular share price performer to being one of the worse.

And here's the real clincher - one eyed posters wanting dissenters (to the rose-tinted glasses view) banned, shut down or even the whole thread shut down!

History tells us PEB is heading in the wrong direction - time for the directors and management to front up and explain 1 to 6 above or it could be time to change directors and management, before it is too late.
Yeah well I think you can stop now, pretty well everyone who is going to bail has done so.
Thanks for your input.

[Snow Leopard]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-PEB/NZX-PEB-Future3.png

It has been pointed out to me a little error in that I put some of the Sep-15 values in the Mar-15 slot (the shame of it:blush:).

So here is the amended version.

Now PEB have more head room on cash in the bank.

Apparently this will become the official projection against which future company performance will be judged. :D


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[kiwidollabill]

And if you still think we are operating in a vacume heres a link that just shows how the 3 big Kahunas are fighting it out in the cancer market--its not specifically about urine tests but it will give you an idea.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/27/health-cancer-atezolizumab-idUSL5N11T3LV20150927#XqumoPBHSsJk8VVy.97

If one of the big 3 comes up with a new drug to fight bladder cancer and they have a test for diagnosis (Roche-FISH) and its just about as good as CX ,and by using it you get access to their new drug for treatment---who would you run with?

They cant do that, massive conflict of interest. Roche diagnostics and Roche pharmaceuticals are separate divisions

[skid]

They cant do that, massive conflict of interest. Roche diagnostics and Roche pharmaceuticals are separate divisions

So two divisions of the same company cant offer a package deal for products that benefit each other? Since they would not be interfering with each others business I would have thought it would have been smart marketing. But you know the business better than I so i stand corrected.

(I was basically throwing a may or may not situation out there to emphasize the fact that competitors are busy while we wait)--I believe it is a fair point, if we are starting to project that many years down the line.

I still stand by my premise that if they had had a good partner ,things would have moved much faster.

The most interesting thing about this week is the fact that the results have had almost no affect on the SP--Its as if the results have'nt happened.

Perhaps Miner is right, most who were either going to buy or sell have already done so.

[Minerbarejet]

So two divisions of the same company cant offer a package deal for products that benefit each other? Since they would not be interfering with each others business I would have thought it would have been smart marketing. But you know the business better than I so i stand corrected.

(I was basically throwing a may or may not situation out there to emphasize the fact that competitors are busy while we wait)--I believe it is a fair point, if we are starting to project that many years down the line.

I still stand by my premise that if they had had a good partner ,things would have moved much faster.

The most interesting thing about this week is the fact that the results have had almost no affect on the SP--Its as if the results have'nt happened.

Perhaps Miner is right, most who were either going to buy or sell have already done so.
The word bail usually implies selling in this case.:)

Here's an analogy for you on the current situation.
Some people are all flying along in a PEBroplane, flight number PEB 100, first round of drinks has arrived, throttled back to cruising, wings level, making good progress.
All of a sudden the port engine backfires with a loud bang. Some passengers grab parachutes and head for the door. Engine backfires again. "Shes gunna crash"! they scream and jump to safety (bailing out) landing on top of some newbies who were going to get on the next flight. A couple more backfires and the engine recovers its normal hum (petrol blockage)but the plane is now a bit late. Cabin crew get everyone settled again, more drinks are served (free this time) and eventually PEB 100 arrives at its destination much to everyones delight.
And where are the passengers who bailed, the ones who never got aboard in the first place and the newbies who never got off the ground having been jumped on from a great height.
They are exhausted from running along after the plane trying to catch up and have to resort to finding another aircraft.:)

I guess that will get a few unhappy sad sack endings where the plane crashes.

[Crackity]

The word bail usually implies selling in this case.:)

Here's an analogy for you on the current situation.
Some people are all flying along in a PEBroplane, flight number PEB 100, first round of drinks has arrived, throttled back to cruising, wings level, making good progress.
All of a sudden the port engine backfires with a loud bang. Some passengers grab parachutes and head for the door. Engine backfires again. "Shes gunna crash"! they scream and jump to safety (bailing out) landing on top of some newbies who were going to get on the next flight. A couple more backfires and the engine recovers its normal hum (petrol blockage)but the plane is now a bit late. Cabin crew get everyone settled again, more drinks are served (free this time) and eventually PEB 100 arrives at its destination much to everyones delight.
And where are the passengers who bailed, the ones who never got aboard in the first place and the newbies who never got off the ground having been jumped on from a great height.
They are exhausted from running along after the plane trying to catch up and have to resort to finding another aircraft.:)

I guess that will get a few unhappy sad sack endings where the plane crashes.

glad you didn't post that to the AirNZ thread Miner - their planes are meticulously maintained

dont want Rog to get nervous...

:)

[Crackity]

The word bail usually implies selling in this case.:)

Here's an analogy for you on the current situation.
Some people are all flying along in a PEBroplane, flight number PEB 100, first round of drinks has arrived, throttled back to cruising, wings level, making good progress.
All of a sudden the port engine backfires with a loud bang. Some passengers grab parachutes and head for the door. Engine backfires again. "Shes gunna crash"! they scream and jump to safety (bailing out) landing on top of some newbies who were going to get on the next flight. A couple more backfires and the engine recovers its normal hum (petrol blockage)but the plane is now a bit late. Cabin crew get everyone settled again, more drinks are served (free this time) and eventually PEB 100 arrives at its destination much to everyones delight.
And where are the passengers who bailed, the ones who never got aboard in the first place and the newbies who never got off the ground having been jumped on from a great height.
They are exhausted from running along after the plane trying to catch up and have to resort to finding another aircraft.:)

I guess that will get a few unhappy sad sack endings where the plane crashes.

glad you didn't post that to the AirNZ thread Miner - their planes are meticulously maintained

dont want Rog to get nervous...

:)

[skid]

Yes I know bail means sell--but I thought Id give you the benefit of the doubt that you knew that for every sell,there is a buy.

So PEBroplane is one of the old prop planes that actually backfires eh? Guess some would be happy that they actually did provide parachutes(I know I am)
Cause now Ive got a choice of some new jets to fly on-(could even get back on that old prop plane if they get around to giving it a tune up)----Is that a hot tea you have spilled all over your shirt?


Maybe we should do a survey of those who bought PEB ,and held without selling and see how many are in the black--Even those that got in in the earlier days must be getting close to the red.

[Minerbarejet]

glad you didn't post that to the AirNZ thread Miner - their planes are meticulously maintained

dont want Rog to get nervous...

:)
And therein lies the analogy.
Air Nz is a classic example

[trader_jackson]

And therein lies the analogy.
Air Nz is a classic example

Very, Very true! They were in a far worse position than PEB at one stage!

[Balance]

And therein lies the analogy.
Air Nz is a classic example

PEB100 has a pilot:

- who does not even know the fuel usage of the plane,

- nearly crash when fuel ran out,

- had to have an emergency top up,

- does not keep passengers advised as to distance traveled and

- still has no idea how to get to the end destination!

Most passengers are grateful they got out at the emergency top up stopover and got on other planes like TIL, ATM, THL ...

As they look down at PEB100 in the far distance, they can now clearly see the smoke from PEB100's engines!

But it is all ok, the pilot says so!

[Minerbarejet]

Yes I know bail means sell--but I thought Id give you the benefit of the doubt that you knew that for every sell,there is a buy.

So PEBroplane is one of the old prop planes that actually backfires eh? Guess some would be happy that they actually did provide parachutes(I know I am)
Cause now Ive got a choice of some new jets to fly on-(could even get back on that old prop plane if they get around to giving it a tune up)----Is that a hot tea you have spilled all over your shirt?


Maybe we should do a survey of those who bought PEB ,and held without selling and see how many are in the black--Even those that got in in the earlier days must be getting close to the red.
Do you want a daily update or will weekly do?:)

[Minerbarejet]

PEB100 has a pilot:

- who does not even know the fuel usage of the plane,

- nearly crash when fuel ran out,

- had to have an emergency top up,

- does not keep passengers advised as to distance traveled and

- still has no idea how to get to the end destination!

Most passengers are grateful they got out at the emergency top up stopover and got on other planes like TIL, ATM, THL ...

As they look down at PEB100 in the far distance, they can now clearly see the smoke from PEB100's engines!

But it is all ok, the pilot says so!Very good, you managed to change everything and missed the
(way)point entirely.

[skid]

All that to say that not to much has changed at this point(alot less than other results)and it could go either way--Im sure PEB will do all they can (that I have no doubt) Whether its enough,I think by the way the week has gone (with almost no change in SP) we could call it a 50/50 split in sentiment. So at this stage ,i doubt if anyone will be changing camps. Fair enough ..variety is the spice of life..:)

[skid]

Amazing is'nt it--this thread was started in 2005 by gryffyn--does anyone even remember Gryffyn? his last post was in 2009---We all missed the 10yr anniversary (it was in August)

[iceman]

Amazing is'nt it--this thread was started in 2005 by gryffyn--does anyone even remember Gryffyn? his last post was in 2009---We all missed the 10yr anniversary (it was in August)

Based on the last few posts on here, it is obvious that Gryffyn was kidnapped by Putin and locked away in Ukraine :confused:

[Minerbarejet]

Amazing is'nt it--this thread was started in 2005 by gryffyn--does anyone even remember Gryffyn? his last post was in 2009---We all missed the 10yr anniversary (it was in August)
Sorry, you are mistaken
This thread was started by Hancocks hence the oblique reference to Hancocks half hour in the first post.
You really must keep up , skid

[Minerbarejet]

Based on the last few posts on here, it is obvious that Gryffyn was kidnapped by Putin and locked away in Ukraine :confused:Think that might have been done by Vladimir's great uncle Raz. :)

[Balance]

Game over.

All the user test programs in the world will not give urologists the confidence they need to avoid liability for misdiagnosis.

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20151104/Urinary-biomarkers-for-bladder-cancer-diagnosis-fall-short-of-mark.aspx

"“Urinary biomarkers miss 18% to 43% of patients with bladder cancer and are falsely positive in 12% to 26% of patients without bladder cancer”, write Chou et al.

They conclude: “The value of urinary biomarkers and whether they are sufficiently accurate to reduce the need for cystoscopy depends on the ability of clinicians to estimate the pretest probability of disease, the importance to patients and clinicians of relatively small changes in the probability of bladder cancer, and the acceptable threshold and clinical consequences of missed or delayed diagnoses and false-positive results.”

[skid]

Sorry, you are mistaken
This thread was started by Hancocks hence the oblique reference to Hancocks half hour in the first post.
You really must keep up , skid

Well,I must say that would make sense--See what happens when people delete themselves--It erases history-(all that work down the gurgler)Its a shame I liked his posts and enjoyed occasional debates-It now says started by griffyn on the thread page--Guess its not the first time history has been rewritten---still 10yrs is a long time!

[Baa_Baa]

Game over.

All the user test programs in the world will not give urologists the confidence they need to avoid liability for misdiagnosis.

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20151104/Urinary-biomarkers-for-bladder-cancer-diagnosis-fall-short-of-mark.aspx

"“Urinary biomarkers miss 18% to 43% of patients with bladder cancer and are falsely positive in 12% to 26% of patients without bladder cancer”, write Chou et al.

They conclude: “The value of urinary biomarkers and whether they are sufficiently accurate to reduce the need for cystoscopy depends on the ability of clinicians to estimate the pretest probability of disease, the importance to patients and clinicians of relatively small changes in the probability of bladder cancer, and the acceptable threshold and clinical consequences of missed or delayed diagnoses and false-positive results.”

What is the credence of the analysis and how much weight does this report carry in the relevant circles?

[skid]

Game over.

All the user test programs in the world will not give urologists the confidence they need to avoid liability for misdiagnosis.

http://www.news-medical.net/news/20151104/Urinary-biomarkers-for-bladder-cancer-diagnosis-fall-short-of-mark.aspx

"“Urinary biomarkers miss 18% to 43% of patients with bladder cancer and are falsely positive in 12% to 26% of patients without bladder cancer”, write Chou et al.

They conclude: “The value of urinary biomarkers and whether they are sufficiently accurate to reduce the need for cystoscopy depends on the ability of clinicians to estimate the pretest probability of disease, the importance to patients and clinicians of relatively small changes in the probability of bladder cancer, and the acceptable threshold and clinical consequences of missed or delayed diagnoses and false-positive results.”

I believe the ''annals'' tests have been discussed before.
That ,with the AUA report are certainly the ''elephant in the room'' ie-we cant really assume ''gold standard'' anymore,and if in reality CX is better than the tests suggest-there are now alot more to convince.
If Kaiser comes up with similar results and decides not to go with it then it would be very slow going.
Instead of waiting for confirmation ,we are now waiting for a rescue--Im a bit surprised the forcasting crowd have not taken this on board(Edison is paid so I guess thats not surprising though)Forbar?
This is where Hancocks information would be interesting--that was his specialty.

[skid]

What is the credence of the analysis and how much weight does this report carry in the relevant circles?

thats a good question--what makes it a worry though is that the American Urological Ass. has come up with a similar report. (that one hurts)

[psychic]

Balance and Skid.
If you guys are going to spend so much of your life bashing this stock and saving the rest of us, then please put some effort in understanding it eh?

Look, there is no AUA report. The AUA put some questions up to the AHRQ to review data about BCa urinary biomarkers amongst other things. Chow et al then reviewed available Pubmed evidence and came up with a summary. They concluded that OVERALL, Urinary biomarkers missed a significant number of tumours. (They do, mostly TA , Tis - low grade cancers that won't kill) . CxBladder detect rated better than the other tests but with only one study published, the strength of evidence was considered too low to lift the very average performance of the other tests.

I actually sent you a copy of this AHRQ draft some 18 months ago skid.


So, firstly. There has not been an independent AUA report, you gurus and legends are getting excited about the same thing. Secondly, this is a summary only of the data published on pubmed. Okay? You understand they have not gone out and independently tested anything right?
Thirdly, the performance of CxBladder Detect, although better than the other biomarkers, has not been weighted in because there was only the one study published.
Four. The market for Urinary Biomarkers is already huge- and a summary document by AHRQ will not change that.
Last. This "report" does not consider CxBladder Triage AT ALL.

And you need to understand Triage and the space it has if you really are going to follow PEB.

[Crackity]

Balance and Skid.
If you guys are going to spend so much of your life bashing this stock and saving the rest of us, then please put some effort in understanding it eh?

Look, there is no AUA report. The AUA put some questions up to the AHRQ to review data about BCa urinary biomarkers amongst other things. Chow et al then reviewed available Pubmed evidence and came up with a summary. They concluded that OVERALL, Urinary biomarkers missed a significant number of tumours. (They do, mostly TA , Tis - low grade cancers that won't kill) . CxBladder detect rated better than the other tests but with only one study published, the strength of evidence was considered too low to lift the very average performance of the other tests.

I actually sent you a copy of this AHRQ draft some 18 months ago skid.


So, firstly. There has not been an independent AUA report, you gurus and legends are getting excited about the same thing. Secondly, this is a summary only of the data published on pubmed. Okay? You understand they have not gone out and independently tested anything right?
Thirdly, the performance of CxBladder Detect, although better than the other biomarkers, has not been weighted in because there was only the one study published.
Four. The market for Urinary Biomarkers is already huge- and a summary document by AHRQ will not change that.
Last. This "report" does not consider CxBladder Triage AT ALL.

And you need to understand Triage and the space it has if you really are going to follow PEB.

Quick question psychic and I mean no malice by this - doesn't that 18 months more or less 'wasted' , for want of a better word , worry you just a bit?

[psychic]

Quick question psychic and I mean no malice by this - doesn't that 18 months more or less 'wasted' , for want of a better word , worry you just a bit?

Not totally sure I follow fulla, but sure - holding PEB last 18 months def a waste of time SP wise. No argument there. I'm not defending anything, but this "report" should be understood for what it is. And what it means. The draft meant zip really, the final ,much the same. I had hoped that PEB might have been able to submit something further for inclusion in the final, but I'm not sure it quite works that way. Regardless, any CMS decision on coverage for CxBladder was not going to be influenced by this type of summary document, odd as that may sound.

[Leftfield]

Balance and Skid.
If you guys are going to spend so much of your life bashing this stock and saving the rest of us, then please put some effort in understanding it eh.

With so many PEB knockers around, it is nice to read your comments Psychic. Thank you.

[Balance]

With so many PEB knockers around, it is nice to read your comments Psychic. Thank you.

Knockers and bashers? Very emotive words indeed!

This is a company which has gone out of its way to hype its prospects, directors conveniently selling shares into the hype, fail to deliver, fail to account for why they are failing to deliver and keep going back to shareholders and the market for more funds.

Those of us taking the company to task and getting no answers are getting close to being labelled murderers!

More like realists for those who critically and objectively care to read how this company is going about 'commercializing' its products, and in the process, saving a lot of their $$$ from being vaporized by the company.

[Biscuit]

Knockers and bashers? Very emotive words indeed!

This is a company which has gone out of its way to hype its prospects, directors conveniently selling shares into the hype, fail to deliver, fail to account for why they are failing to deliver and keep going back to shareholders and the market for more funds.

Those of us taking the company to task and getting no answers are getting close to being labelled murderers!

More like realists for those who critically and objectively care to read how this company is going about 'commercializing' its products, and in the process, saving a lot of their $$$ from being vaporized by the company.

To be fair, of the three emotive words: "Knockers, bashers and murderers", Left Field only used the word "knockers" and of course that word has more than one meaning.

[winner69]

Knockers and bashers? Very emotive words indeed!

This is a company which has gone out of its way to hype its prospects, directors conveniently selling shares into the hype, fail to deliver, fail to account for why they are failing to deliver and keep going back to shareholders and the market for more funds.

Those of us taking the company to task and getting no answers are getting close to being labelled murderers!

More like realists for those who critically and objectively care to read how this company is going about 'commercializing' its products, and in the process, saving a lot of their $$$ from being vaporized by the company.

Balance, they are only scientists

Prime objective is to take 'science' from the lab to the world - that's there definition of commercialisation. Successful they have been

Then on to the next project, using the hype from the last completed project to fund it

Profit not a word in their world - never has been

[Minerbarejet]

Knockers and bashers? Very emotive words indeed!

This is a company which has gone out of its way to hype its prospects, directors conveniently selling shares into the hype, fail to deliver, fail to account for why they are failing to deliver and keep going back to shareholders and the market for more funds.

Those of us taking the company to task and getting no answers are getting close to being labelled murderers!

More like realists for those who critically and objectively care to read how this company is going about 'commercializing' its products, and in the process, saving a lot of their $$$ from being vaporized by the company.
Just a suggestion. Take two aspirins and go have a lie down.
You are giving me a headache.
Murderers, ------really!!

[jonu]

To be fair, of the three emotive words: "Knockers, bashers and murderers", Left Field only used the word "knockers" and of course that word has more than one meaning.

Mmmmmm... Knockers. Said with a Homer Simpson voice.:ohmy:

[skid]

Balance and Skid.
If you guys are going to spend so much of your life bashing this stock and saving the rest of us, then please put some effort in understanding it eh?

Look, there is no AUA report. The AUA put some questions up to the AHRQ to review data about BCa urinary biomarkers amongst other things. Chow et al then reviewed available Pubmed evidence and came up with a summary. They concluded that OVERALL, Urinary biomarkers missed a significant number of tumours. (They do, mostly TA , Tis - low grade cancers that won't kill) . CxBladder detect rated better than the other tests but with only one study published, the strength of evidence was considered too low to lift the very average performance of the other tests.

I actually sent you a copy of this AHRQ draft some 18 months ago skid.


So, firstly. There has not been an independent AUA report, you gurus and legends are getting excited about the same thing. Secondly, this is a summary only of the data published on pubmed. Okay? You understand they have not gone out and independently tested anything right?
Thirdly, the performance of CxBladder Detect, although better than the other biomarkers, has not been weighted in because there was only the one study published.
Four. The market for Urinary Biomarkers is already huge- and a summary document by AHRQ will not change that.
Last. This "report" does not consider CxBladder Triage AT ALL.

And you need to understand Triage and the space it has if you really are going to follow PEB.

OK -the AUA reported on the results.

I disagree that the article by the American Urological ass. does not have the ability to change
the perception (rightly or wrongly)about urinary biomarkers

[Minerbarejet]

What everyone seems to be forgetting is that PEB, in its wisdom early on, asked urologists what they would like to see developed. No doubt that some were members of the AUA. There is also no doubt that
this has been a topic of conversation at every seminar , trade exhibition, conference, since. All or most attended by PEB. Triage may very well be a result of this feedback. In fact I would hazard a guess at this point that KP told them if they can get a Triage developed they would give it a UP test run.
AUA are probably fairly skeptical of 18 month old data given all the ongoing and rapid developments.
And where does this leave all the "fast catching up new chums". In the same boat, having to prove their
product is better. This may be a tad difficult if someones tests are already running at 100% or very close to it.
And in addition it was never the intent that cx bladder Detect would become the "gold standard".
It was intended that it would become the best available adjunct to cystoscopy and save a lot of pain, worry, money while it was about it.

[Balance]

That's all fine, Miner but it still does not explain the delays, costs over runs, lack of sales traction and the need for repetitive user test programs.

Indicative of badly managed PEB's commercialization is - Kaiser Permanente user test program.

Announced in August 2014 with some superlative description of the program, PEB expected the program to be completed and results delivered early 2015.

Complete silence about progress until May 2015 when it was announced that 'first tests were expected in next few weeks!'. No explanation why such a significant slippage.

Comes Nov 2015 trading update and it's now 'seasonal factors' which have resulted in further delays in the program!

Comes results in late Nov 2015 and PEB happily announces that a new electronic recruitment system should result in the program going ahead as planned!

So what do the delays above tell us about PEB's management?

One word - incompetent.

What does it tell us about the test?

Not so well thought of and sought after as PEB has hyped.

[goldfish]

I just don't understand why insto's can't see all this. Why are they throwing millions of dollars at this. It's very obvious to me to that balance had been correct all along.

[pierre]

What everyone seems to be forgetting is that PEB, in its wisdom early on, asked urologists what they would like to see developed. No doubt that some were members of the AUA. There is also no doubt that
this has been a topic of conversation at every seminar , trade exhibition, conference, since. All or most attended by PEB. Triage may very well be a result of this feedback. In fact I would hazard a guess at this point that KP told them if they can get a Triage developed they would give it a UP test run.
AUA are probably fairly skeptical of 18 month old data given all the ongoing and rapid developments.
And where does this leave all the "fast catching up new chums". In the same boat, having to prove their
product is better. This may be a tad difficult if someones tests are already running at 100% or very close to it.
And in addition it was never the intent that cx bladder Detect would become the "gold standard".
It was intended that it would become the best available adjunct to cystoscopy and save a lot of pain, worry, money while it was about it.

Well said Miner!

And the road to success is often not a smooth one, nor does it usually go in a strictly linear direction. It is very disappointing that PEB's progress is slower than it and the market anticipated and hoped for - but progress slowly is being made. It makes me wonder if some of the hyper-critical posters on this thread have ever been in business and experienced some of the inevitable ups, downs and sideways movements that go with getting a new product out of development and into the market.

It's painfully obvious that some things are taking considerably longer to achieve than PEB management anticipated, but that doesn't mean they have failed or the company is doomed. It simply means that those who hold shares and believe the business is on the right track will have to wait longer for success to be realised or not.

Meantime, those who have no faith (and do not hold shares) in PEB, or want to read malicious intent into every statement, action or delayed outcome reported by it's management will probably have more opportunities to vent their spleen. I guess they will keep going until the company either meets their expectations and tips over, or more likely, in a year or two proves them all wrong, succeeds fabulously and forces them to eat their words (or some of them at least).

I guess that the negativity and vitriol previously directed at NZO has to go somewhere and right now PEB is a convenient target. Like the NZO thread it has become rather tiresome so I'm going to block a few that are getting on my wick. And no, it's not a head in the sand attitude, it's just exhaustion and frustration with hearing the same tune being played day in day out.

[Balance]

Those who listened on NZOG (and PRC and SNK) saved themselves a lot of money.

PS. No need to wait for a bird to quake to know and confirm that it is a duck.

[Balance]

I just don't understand why insto's can't see all this. Why are they throwing millions of dollars at this. It's very obvious to me to that balance had been correct all along.

Hence the beauty of the market - the instos buying (and having to continue to swallow stock) allows those who want to get out, to do so at a better price.

I am sure those instos who bought and underwrote Rakon's capital raising thought they were doing the right thing.

Not correct all along, goldfish. I was a big believer in the story until the antics of the directors and management changed my view.

[Minerbarejet]

1.The delays lie in dealing with a dinosaur that is the US Medical System.
2. Delays will produce cost over runs. See above.
3. Lack of sales are a result of delays. See above
4. Who said UPs were repetitive?( And to go with it) who said they were "free".
5. KP program is Triage.
6. CLIA lab certification for Detect does not cover Triage.
7. The whole rigamarole has to be gone through again. And again with Monitor and again with Predict probably.
8. It may have taken several months to establish that that actually had to happen as well.
9. First tests for Triage had to wait for the Dunedin Lab to be Certified. This occurred in July a few weeks later and KP tests were able to be processed there if required.
10.This allows them to process American citizen samples whilst awaiting Hershey Triage Approval.
11.Good preemptive work by Management. Incompetent? I dont think so.
12.Seasonal factors had more to do with Detect User Programs finishing at or about the same time as Summer Holidays in the US resulting in lesser revenue than everyone was expecting.
13.They await CLIA approval for the Lab in Hershey at which point they will launch Triage fully.
14.Any KP User Program tests are probably done in NZ in order to be legitimate.
15.The delays in obtaining approvals can be accounted for in the extreme amount of time required by the US System.
16.Would concede that in their enthusiasm to get things going PEB may have had poor guidance, perhaps even from the AUA, CMS, KP and VA themselves, into the amount of time required for approval.
17. The approval time is only going to get longer and longer with all the additional products, labs, tests coming on board for all sorts of medical problems. There has been a huge influx of these in the last couple of years and they will be all trying to squeeze through the door at once. Its not PEBs fault, its the system.
18.Have a nice day:)

[Ginger_steps_]

1.The delays lie in dealing with a dinosaur that is the US Medical System.
2. Delays will produce cost over runs. See above.
3. Lack of sales are a result of delays. See above
4. Who said UPs were repetitive?( And to go with it) who said they were "free".
5. KP program is Triage.
6. CLIA lab certification for Detect does not cover Triage.
7. The whole rigamarole has to be gone through again. And again with Monitor and again with Predict probably.
8. It may have taken several months to establish that that actually had to happen as well.
9. First tests for Triage had to wait for the Dunedin Lab to be Certified. This occurred in July a few weeks later and KP tests were able to be processed there if required.
10.This allows them to process American citizen samples whilst awaiting Hershey Triage Approval.
11.Good preemptive work by Management. Incompetent? I dont think so.
12.Seasonal factors had more to do with Detect User Programs finishing at or about the same time as Summer Holidays in the US resulting in lesser revenue than everyone was expecting.
13.They await CLIA approval for the Lab in Hershey at which point they will launch Triage fully.
14.Any KP User Program tests are probably done in NZ in order to be legitimate.
15.The delays in obtaining approvals can be accounted for in the extreme amount of time required by the US System.
16.Would concede that in their enthusiasm to get things going PEB may have had poor guidance, perhaps even from the AUA, CMS, KP and VA themselves, into the amount of time required for approval.
17. The approval time is only going to get longer and longer with all the additional products, labs, tests coming on board for all sorts of medical problems. There has been a huge influx of these in the last couple of years and they will be all trying to squeeze through the door at once. Its not PEBs fault, its the system.
18.Have a nice day:) Well Said - Thanks Miner!

[Snow Leopard]

...PS. No need to wait for a bird to quake to know and confirm that it is a duck.

Bird Quake?
Is that the technical term for the way they wiggle there back ends when they shake the water off?

A duck:
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-PEB/PEB-Duck.png

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

1.The delays lie in dealing with a dinosaur that is the US Medical System.
2. Delays will produce cost over runs. See above.
3. Lack of sales are a result of delays. See above
4. Who said UPs were repetitive?( And to go with it) who said they were "free".
5. KP program is Triage.
6. CLIA lab certification for Detect does not cover Triage.
7. The whole rigamarole has to be gone through again. And again with Monitor and again with Predict probably.
8. It may have taken several months to establish that that actually had to happen as well.
9. First tests for Triage had to wait for the Dunedin Lab to be Certified. This occurred in July a few weeks later and KP tests were able to be processed there if required.
10.This allows them to process American citizen samples whilst awaiting Hershey Triage Approval.
11.Good preemptive work by Management. Incompetent? I dont think so.
12.Seasonal factors had more to do with Detect User Programs finishing at or about the same time as Summer Holidays in the US resulting in lesser revenue than everyone was expecting.
13.They await CLIA approval for the Lab in Hershey at which point they will launch Triage fully.
14.Any KP User Program tests are probably done in NZ in order to be legitimate.
15.The delays in obtaining approvals can be accounted for in the extreme amount of time required by the US System.
16.Would concede that in their enthusiasm to get things going PEB may have had poor guidance, perhaps even from the AUA, CMS, KP and VA themselves, into the amount of time required for approval.
17. The approval time is only going to get longer and longer with all the additional products, labs, tests coming on board for all sorts of medical problems. There has been a huge influx of these in the last couple of years and they will be all trying to squeeze through the door at once. Its not PEBs fault, its the system.
18.Have a nice day:)

17. Pike River management said the same thing! Everybody is at fault, except themselves!

Scary!

[jonu]

[QUOTE=Paper Tiger;599382]Bird Quake?
Is that the technical term for the way they wiggle there back ends when they shake the water off?

A duck:
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-PEB/PEB-Duck.png



Silly Tiger! Don't you know a bird quake is similar to a quack doctor but not in any way similar to a duck's dabble?

[Snow Leopard]

My Private Message Inbox was inundated over the weekend with a message asking whether, given I had come up with a pretty picture that showed PEB not only not going broke but also making money, I now thought it was a buy.

PEB is still a highly speculative share. I, despite doing a reasonable amount of research, still have no real handle on the risk/reward ratio for this.


I own two speculative shares, one is SLI and the other is not PEB.


As usual DYOR.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

My Private Message Inbox was inundated over the weekend with a message asking whether, given I had come up with a pretty picture that showed PEB not only not going broke but also making money, I now thought it was a buy.

PEB is still a highly speculative share. I, despite doing a reasonable amount of research, still have no real handle on the risk/reward ratio for this.


I own two speculative shares, one is SLI and the other is not PEB.


As usual DYOR.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Moth to fire. Notice how a moth will keep flying at an open flame, again and again until its wings are burnt and it drops to the ground to be consumed by ants?

[Minerbarejet]

Moth to fire. Notice how a moth will keep flying at an open flame, again and again until its wings are burnt and it drops to the ground to be consumed by ants?
What the heck does that have to do with the price of dessicated coconut in Timaru?

Ah yeah, sorry bit slow there.
Tiger moth
Haha very funny.lol

[Beagle]

Company was floated in 2003 and after nearly thirteen years there's still no sign on which year, decade or if indeed they will ever make a profit.

If the urologist at North Shore hospital that was involved in the trial still gave me the camera up the penis examination and still thinks that's the best way to go when inspecting for this sort of thing, what hope has this company ever winning over sufficient government funding and worldwide support to make its product a commercial success ?

How many years grace do you give a company that loses money every year ? When there's so many other worthwhile and profitable opportunities do you really need to be invested in highly speculative one's ?
Best of luck to holders, I think you'll need it. For mine, when company directors sell aggressively into the hype some time back, in my opinion that's the only signal a prudent investor really should need to know to run for the hills.

Disc: I don't believe the hype about XRO either (8.5 years is more than enough time for a new venture to make money and if it can't by then, get out IMO).

[Crackity]

If the urologist at North Shore hospital that was involved in the trial still gave me the camera up the penis examination and still thinks that's the best way to go when inspecting for this sort of thing, what hope has this company ever winning over sufficient government funding and worldwide support to make its product a commercial .

Note to self - ask Rog about this at the next Ak sharetrader meeting - Im still wincing ...

[blackcap]

Company was floated in 2003 and after nearly thirteen years there's still no sign on which year, decade or if indeed they will ever make a profit.

If the urologist at North Shore hospital that was involved in the trial still gave me the camera up the penis examination and still thinks that's the best way to go when inspecting for this sort of thing, what hope has this company ever winning over sufficient government funding and worldwide support to make its product a commercial success ?

How many years grace do you give a company that loses money every year ? When there's so many other worthwhile and profitable opportunities do you really need to be invested in highly speculative one's ?
Best of luck to holders, I think you'll need it. For mine, when company directors sell aggressively into the hype some time back, in my opinion that's the only signal a prudent investor really should need to know to run for the hills.

Disc: I don't believe the hype about XRO either (8.5 years is more than enough time for a new venture to make money and if it can't by then, get out IMO).

Well said Roger. I think it is also important that Miners first two statements in the list be highlighted in terms of valuation. Because delays and cost over runs will quickly destroy share holder value when completing a DCF!! So although the "delays" may not be of PEB's doing, they ultimately do and should destroy share holder wealth.

[Minerbarejet]

Note to self - ask Rog about this at the next Ak sharetrader meeting - Im still wincing ...
While you are there ask him if the urologist is still in business after getting half the story with his camera and how many patients came back later for a different result.
Never mind the infections and erectile dysfunction in males.
This is where cxbladder has them stuffed. Non invasive and covers everything including upper tract.
You will never get a camera way up there.

[Beagle]

"Lucky" for me, she was one of their most experienced urologists and was involved in the CX bladder trial. I would hasten to add that she quite liked the product just that Government funding hasn't been forthcoming but she did say you can't beat the MK1 eyeball test. No vested interest from me, no reason to come on here and tell my humiliating story other than sharing my experience for the greater knowledge of the investment community.

I don't pretend to understand all the in's and out's, the pro's and con's, just telling it like it happened. 13 years of losses and lots of hype the directors aggressively sold into...if people can't join the dots..then I am sorry but I did my bit to paint the objective picture of my experience for what its worth.

[skid]

1.The delays lie in dealing with a dinosaur that is the US Medical System.
2. Delays will produce cost over runs. See above.
3. Lack of sales are a result of delays. See above
4. Who said UPs were repetitive?( And to go with it) who said they were "free".
5. KP program is Triage.
6. CLIA lab certification for Detect does not cover Triage.
7. The whole rigamarole has to be gone through again. And again with Monitor and again with Predict probably.
8. It may have taken several months to establish that that actually had to happen as well.
9. First tests for Triage had to wait for the Dunedin Lab to be Certified. This occurred in July a few weeks later and KP tests were able to be processed there if required.
10.This allows them to process American citizen samples whilst awaiting Hershey Triage Approval.
11.Good preemptive work by Management. Incompetent? I dont think so.
12.Seasonal factors had more to do with Detect User Programs finishing at or about the same time as Summer Holidays in the US resulting in lesser revenue than everyone was expecting.
13.They await CLIA approval for the Lab in Hershey at which point they will launch Triage fully.
14.Any KP User Program tests are probably done in NZ in order to be legitimate.
15.The delays in obtaining approvals can be accounted for in the extreme amount of time required by the US System.
16.Would concede that in their enthusiasm to get things going PEB may have had poor guidance, perhaps even from the AUA, CMS, KP and VA themselves, into the amount of time required for approval.
17. The approval time is only going to get longer and longer with all the additional products, labs, tests coming on board for all sorts of medical problems. There has been a huge influx of these in the last couple of years and they will be all trying to squeeze through the door at once. Its not PEBs fault, its the system.
18.Have a nice day:)

Therefore ,dont be to quick to be throwing yoiur hard earned dosh at pEB if your a new investor---not right now at least

[skid]

Well said Miner!

And the road to success is often not a smooth one, nor does it usually go in a strictly linear direction. It is very disappointing that PEB's progress is slower than it and the market anticipated and hoped for - but progress slowly is being made. It makes me wonder if some of the hyper-critical posters on this thread have ever been in business and experienced some of the inevitable ups, downs and sideways movements that go with getting a new product out of development and into the market.

It's painfully obvious that some things are taking considerably longer to achieve than PEB management anticipated, but that doesn't mean they have failed or the company is doomed. It simply means that those who hold shares and believe the business is on the right track will have to wait longer for success to be realised or not.

Meantime, those who have no faith (and do not hold shares) in PEB, or want to read malicious intent into every statement, action or delayed outcome reported by it's management will probably have more opportunities to vent their spleen. I guess they will keep going until the company either meets their expectations and tips over, or more likely, in a year or two proves them all wrong, succeeds fabulously and forces them to eat their words (or some of them at least).

I guess that the negativity and vitriol previously directed at NZO has to go somewhere and right now PEB is a convenient target. Like the NZO thread it has become rather tiresome so I'm going to block a few that are getting on my wick. And no, it's not a head in the sand attitude, it's just exhaustion and frustration with hearing the same tune being played day in day out.

Ill be more than happy to eat my words Pierre--When they give me a good reason to get back in.
Any clues why PEB and NZO have become targets? Ive held both and I can tell you neither is doing so great atm--And thats where we are in terms of investing -AT THE MOMENT---When and if things start looking up then there may be a golden opportunity.
Why on earth is anyone encouraging any investors to invest in these shares the way things are going?--If things are not going well --lets say it and if things change we can celebrate then--In the meantime there is no reason to jump on this train for fear of missing the ride.
I looked high and low for any mention of PEB in USA publications to see if they were getting recognition--finally it arrived in the form of a publication questioning the whole process.---Like I said before -they may be proved totally wrong but no one can convince me that doesnt suck for PEB at this point.
If Kaiser comes out with a glowing report then that would surely help--meanwhile wait....

PS-people get negative when they lose alot of money

fair enough for blocking--although I think its pear shaped atm, I can understand your frustration with some posts.

Just to clarify my stance--theres no way its ''game over'' with all that cap raise money for day to day operations--but for those looking for somewhere to park their dosh --this is not a great place right now.

[Minerbarejet]

Therefore ,dont be to quick to be throwing yoiur hard earned dosh at pEB if your a new investor---not right now at least
Gee, you know if Im not mistaken, that really sounds like investment advice.:)

[skid]

Gee, you know if Im not mistaken, that really sounds like investment advice.:)

Dont be to quick means... DYOR (which means -dont look at that nicely numbered little post of yours and think this share is too good to miss)....and youall have a nice day too:)

[Arthur]

It is interesting read the latest trial for Blis K12. They have had many of the same struggles with the medical establishment - they have been trying for years to get NZ trials. Finally (after the Italians let them prove it works) they let a trial happen . Results F***ing amazing. 86% fewer Strep throat in the 3 months following a month of Blis K12. To quote the poster " high acceptance, is highly effective preventing GAS recurrences for at least 3-4 months and decreases antibiotic need. This company has almost gone broke trying to get the medical establishment remove their (pharmacy giant sponsored?) blinkers and give it a fair go. So much for encouraging NZ innovation.

[Minerbarejet]

Lucky" for me, she was one of their most experienced urologists and was involved in the CX bladder trial. I would hasten to add that she quite liked the product just that Government funding hasn't been forthcoming but she did say you can't beat the MK1 eyeball test. No vested interest from me, no reason to come on here and tell my humiliating story other than sharing my experience for the greater knowledge of the investment community.

I don't pretend to understand all the in's and out's, the pro's and con's, just telling it like it happened. 13 years of losses and lots of hype the directors aggressively sold into...if people can't join the dots..then I am sorry but I did my bit to paint the objective picture of my experience for what its worth.
Think the point here, Roger, is that, as you say she is a most experienced urologist. Her No 1 eyeball test may be excellent but it doesnt necessarily mean the urologist in the another hospital has identical abilities.
Cant be, otherwise they would all be most experienced.
And given my experiences with what passes as Healthcare in this country I find that highly unlikely.

I take it you are in the clear and wish you well

[Beagle]

It is interesting read the latest trial for Blis K12. They have had many of the same struggles with the medical establishment - they have been trying for years to get NZ trials. Finally (after the Italians let them prove it works) they let a trial happen . Results F***ing amazing. 86% fewer Strep throat in the 3 months following a month of Blis K12. To quote the poster " high acceptance, is highly effective preventing GAS recurrences for at least 3-4 months and decreases antibiotic need. This company has almost gone broke trying to get the medical establishment remove their (pharmacy giant sponsored?) blinkers and give it a fair go. So much for encouraging NZ innovation.

I don't get it ? If the trial here at the Waitemata district health board was so successful why aren't the N.Z. Govt funding it ? Oncologist told me it cost them approx. $1,000 for the cystoscopy they performed on me so the CX bladder test is a lot cheaper than that...what am I missing here ? If our own Govt won't support a N.Z. company I really don't rate their chances on an international basis so sold shortly after my uncomfortable procedure.


Think the point here, Roger, is that, as you say she is a most experienced urologist. Her No 1 eyeball test may be excellent but it doesnt necessarily mean the urologist in the another hospital has identical abilities.
Cant be, otherwise they would all be most experienced.
And given my experiences with what passes as Healthcare in this country I find that highly unlikely.I take it you are in the clear and wish you well

Thanks, yes I'm all good 18 months on and in the clear. For what its worth I was happy with the thoroughness of the testing procedures they carried out. They had a young doctor observing as well, (another lady) so they're doing their best to train people up and I had the "pleasure" of yet another prostate check by the renal cavity so the whole procedure with two female doctors was a real "treat" but I did leave thinking that although it was the largest humility pill I've ever had to swallow I felt I was fortunate to live in N.Z. and get access to prompt, thorough and free examination. I guess with the benefit of 18 months of hindsight and now knowing what happened to me was nothing more than a really bad bladder / urinary tract infection, a CX bladder test would have been preferable but would I have had the same level of assurance in my own head from a simple urine test procedure vs getting the full work-over, so too speak ???...I really don't know but I can say this. I left hospital thinking they'd be VERY thorough. Maybe perception to the patient is also an important factor ?, I don't know, just a thought. Why isn't the N.Z. Govt funding this test if its so good, does anyone know ?

[skid]

Think the point here, Roger, is that, as you say she is a most experienced urologist. Her No 1 eyeball test may be excellent but it doesnt necessarily mean the urologist in the another hospital has identical abilities.
Cant be, otherwise they would all be most experienced.
And given my experiences with what passes as Healthcare in this country I find that highly unlikely.

I take it you are in the clear and wish you well

He did say she (urologist) liked the product,its just that government funding has'nt been forthcoming--In a perfect world it maybe would have been funded but,as you say,without placing blame,sometimes the system sucks.

[skid]

I don't get it ? If the trial here at the Waitemata district health board was so successful why aren't the N.Z. Govt funding it ? Oncologist told me it cost them approx. $1,000 for the cystoscopy they performed on me so the CX bladder test is a lot cheaper than that...what am I missing here ? If our own Govt won't support a N.Z. company I really don't rate their chances on an international basis so sold shortly after my uncomfortable procedure.



Thanks, yes I'm all good 18 months on and in the clear. For what its worth I was happy with the thoroughness of the testing procedures they carried out. They had a young doctor observing as well, (another lady) so they're doing their best to train people up and I had the "pleasure" of yet another prostate check by the renal cavity so the whole procedure with two female doctors was a real "treat" but I did leave thinking that although it was the largest humility pill I've ever had to swallow I felt I was fortunate to live in N.Z. and get access to prompt, thorough and free examination. I guess with the benefit of 18 months of hindsight and now knowing what happened to me was nothing more than a really bad bladder / urinary tract infection, a CX bladder test would have been preferable but would I have had the same level of assurance in my own head from a simple urine test procedure vs getting the full work-over, so too speak ???...I really don't know but I can say this. I left hospital thinking they'd be VERY thorough. Maybe perception to the patient is also an important factor ?, I don't know, just a thought.

Glad to hear you ok Roger and hope for your sake it was'nt a ''GO PRO'' they were using.:(

[Beagle]

LOL Skid, they do numb your "prime investment parts" with some gel so its not too bad but they should give you something to help get over the humiliation of it all...like I dunno, maybe $100 Liquor voucher so you can get drunk and try and forget :) Thankfully its 18 months ago so I can laugh about it now. Anyway's in a perverse way I was kind of pleased from an investment point of view I'd experienced this whole thing from a user perspective first hand and remember thinking, well if the Waitemata district health board aren't using CX bladder after being involved in the trials what hope it'll be successful globally ? so I sold my modest holding, (20,000 IIRC) at 85 cents and got out with a small profit of about $3,000 having bought a modest stake in the low 70 cent range so there was a silver lining in my scary / uncomfortable experience of the winter of 2014. If I was still holding I'd be down about $6,000 instead of making $3,000.

[Hoop]

A picture is worth a thousand words (posts?)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB%20301102015_1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB%20301102015_1.png.html)

[Baa_Baa]

A picture is worth a thousand words (posts?)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PEB%20301102015_1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PEB%20301102015_1.png.html)

I was wondering if you'd post a picture Hoop, I had one ready ... it's my weekly chart with my favoured 10/14 EMA's that keep screaming 'stay out' (assuming one got out). No need to post it now, your chart really says enough I think, for anyone TA minded, this is a train wreck.

[Snow Leopard]

... Oncologist told me it cost them approx. $1,000 for the cystoscopy they performed on me so the CX bladder test is a lot cheaper than that...what am I missing here ?...

PEB do not market CxBladder Detect as a replacement for a cystoscopy.

A test would have produced a range of values between a low probability of having an early stage minor tumour up through various probabilities to highly likely/definitely having a major tumour.

Most of those results would need confirmation, and even if they decided on the basis of the test that you did not have cancer, then there still remains doing whatever is necessary to determine what was actually wrong with you.

Edit: swapped 32% probability for low probability - sorry - another moment of brain fade.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

It is interesting read the latest trial for Blis K12. They have had many of the same struggles with the medical establishment - they have been trying for years to get NZ trials. Finally (after the Italians let them prove it works) they let a trial happen . Results F***ing amazing. 86% fewer Strep throat in the 3 months following a month of Blis K12. To quote the poster " high acceptance, is highly effective preventing GAS recurrences for at least 3-4 months and decreases antibiotic need. This company has almost gone broke trying to get the medical establishment remove their (pharmacy giant sponsored?) blinkers and give it a fair go. So much for encouraging NZ innovation.

Hopefully now will be its time as it sounds good --I may give it a go this winter.
As much as it may surprise some-Id most likely stump up the $350(did I get that right?)for the PEB test as well if I found myself in that situation --try to keep as many bases covered as possible.

[Beagle]

PEB do not market CxBladder Detect as a replacement for a cystoscopy.

A test would have produced a range of values between a low probability of having an early stage minor tumour up through various probabilities to highly likely/definitely having a major tumour.

Most of those results would need confirmation, and even if they decided on the basis of the test that you did not have cancer, then there still remains doing whatever is necessary to determine what was actually wrong with you.

Edit: swapped 32% probability for low probability - sorry - another moment of brain fade.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT, sounds like the cystoscopy was worth it after all..it certainly gave me peace of mind at the time (despite the uncomfortableness of it).

[skid]

I gave up Ornithology because I could not pronounce it -PT

Im still trying to figure out how to pronounce ''the ultimate Tiger'' in Indonesian :eek2:

[When the bass drops]

I gave up Ornithology because I could not pronounce it -PT

Im still trying to figure out how to pronounce ''the ultimate Tiger'' in Indonesian :eek2:

Let's just be patient. That's all.

[Balance]

After all the comments from the company about signing up U.S. National providers in 2013 providing access to tens of millions of clients, PEB is still talking 'millions of potential tests opportunities' - no wonder the sp continues to fall away, supported only by the desperate instos who have learnt to suck hard on this lemon.

Market and experienced investors were expecting to hear about hundreds of thousands of tests sold by now.

[Balance]

Let's just be patient. That's all.

Patience is no virtue when it comes to some companies who are serial offenders at over-promising and not delivering (eg. Rakon).

What is required is an accounting of where the company is at, why it has failed to deliver and if appropriate, a change in directorships and management. Normally this is preceded by a change in shareholding.

Have a look at Seadragon if you want to see such an example in action.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9144-SeaDragon/page32

Stock is starting to perform now that changes have been effected and the company is keeping the market abreast of progress and developments.

[Ginger_steps_]

After all the comments from the company about signing up U.S. National providers in 2013 providing access to tens of millions of clients, PEB is still talking 'millions of potential tests opportunities' - no wonder the sp continues to fall away, supported only by the desperate instos who have learnt to suck hard on this lemon.

Market and experienced investors were expecting to hear about hundreds of thousands of tests sold by now. Hundreds of thousands?! No wonder you are disappointed!

[Balance]

Hundreds of thousands?! No wonder you are disappointed!

Haha - you have low expectations, my friend.

When a company raises funds with utterances of 'tens of thousands' and 'tens of millions', you are happy to settle for tens of hundreds to part with your hard earned money?

The directors were happy to part with their shares and not put in any more of their own funds after those utterances were made. What does that tell us?

[Ginger_steps_]

Lets not forget about upper urinary tract cancers that cystoscopy does NOT detect but Detect does... Surely this is a biggy for professionals?

[Minerbarejet]

Lets not forget about upper urinary tract cancers that cystoscopy does NOT detect but Detect does... Surely this is a biggy for professionals?
That is the point of the whole thing. The cxbladder test has five markers one of which is midkine.
Midkine is expressed when cancers are present, some invisible, some small, some developed and some in the upper tract. The old number one eyeball test does not cut it when dealing with invisible things that cannot be recognised as such. Hence the worldwide interest in developing these tests by everyone under the sun. It looks as if PEB has a pretty good mix of markers to come up with clinically validated results that leave the others in a position trying to catch up.

And Balance, you do seem to have a proverbial bee in your bonnet about directors selling.
If I recall you were hyping everything around that time and then sold.
Blatting on about 5.00 springs to mind.
So its OK for you to sell but not the directors.
Bit onesided isn't it?

[Balance]

That is the point of the whole thing. The cxbladder test has five markers one of which is midkine.
Midkine is expressed when cancers are present, some invisible, some small, some developed and some in the upper tract. The old number one eyeball test does not cut it when dealing with invisible things that cannot be recognised as such. Hence the worldwide interest in developing these tests by everyone under the sun. It looks as if PEB has a pretty good mix of markers to come up with clinically validated results that leave the others in a position trying to catch up.

And Balance, you do seem to have a proverbial bee in your bonnet about directors selling.
If I recall you were hyping everything around that time and then sold.
Blatting on about 5.00 springs to mind.
So its OK for you to sell but not the directors.
Bit onesided isn't it?

One sided? Directors sold after hyping up the stock. Directors did not put in any more funds after recommending the last rights issue to investors. Director made comment at AGM they would have if they thought they could make a buck from trading the rights (refer Snapiti's comments re AGM).

[Minerbarejet]

One sided? Directors sold after hyping up the stock. Directors did not put in any more funds after recommending the last rights issue to investors. Director made comment at AGM they would have if they thought they could make a buck from trading the rights (refer Snapiti's comments re AGM).
These are your criteria for what directors should and should not do. They are not necessarily the views of everyone else including the directors. These things have been done or not done, as the case may be, and blatting on about how terrible they are wont actually make one iota of difference to anything much unless of course you want to blow holes in your own credibility through endless repetition.
Ill leave you with that as weather conditions are producing phenomenal growth and as my wife wishes to go out I will have to take a machete to the undergrowth down the driveway.

[Balance]

These are your criteria for what directors should and should not do. They are not necessarily the views of everyone else including the directors. These things have been done or not done, as the case may be, and blatting on about how terrible they are wont actually make one iota of difference to anything much unless of course you want to blow holes in your own credibility through endless repetition.
Ill leave you with that as weather conditions are producing phenomenal growth and as my wife wishes to go out I will have to take a machete to the undergrowth down the driveway.

No worries about my credibility as those who followed my postings on NZO, PRC, SNK and now, PEB will attest.

[Bing]

Ironically, despite the current share price, I think the company is better placed now to achieve success than any time in the past. In the short term we are expecting the VA and CMS deals to be finalised, followed by the KP deal. If they pull those off and continue to build on the momentum they are slowly achieving then I think the longer term future will be bright. It will also make them very vulnerable to a takeover offer IMO with the share price low and all the hard work behind them.


If however we get to the end of May 2016 results and talks with the 3 parties above are still "progressing well" then I'm out unless sales are really outstanding. I don't think they have the luxury of time as the money is running out and competitors won't be sitting around. I'm aware this is a high risk speculative share and nothing is guaranteed. Management has missed a lot of goals but I put it more down to naivety and factors beyond their control than anything sinister or utter incompetence as alluded to by other posters.


It may well be that I am the naive one and time will tell. For the sake of the shareholders and more importantly for the advancement of cancer treatment I hope not. I for one will be very happy for this product to still be around should, heaven forbid, I need it one day.

[skid]

These are your criteria for what directors should and should not do. They are not necessarily the views of everyone else including the directors. These things have been done or not done, as the case may be, and blatting on about how terrible they are wont actually make one iota of difference to anything much unless of course you want to blow holes in your own credibility through endless repetition.
Ill leave you with that as weather conditions are producing phenomenal growth and as my wife wishes to go out I will have to take a machete to the undergrowth down the driveway.

Thats not true--It makes an Iota of difference because it establishes a reference to the character of directors if they sold for the reasons stated.

And how have they done with SELLING all that great midkine science--up to now they hav'nt really done it justice have they?

Your always going to be rowing against the current until they actually start to deliver--(but its good that someone(ahem..)asked you to come back to bat for them.);)

[skid]

Ironically, despite the current share price, I think the company is better placed now to achieve success than any time in the past. In the short term we are expecting the VA and CMS deals to be finalised, followed by the KP deal. If they pull those off and continue to build on the momentum they are slowly achieving then I think the longer term future will be bright. It will also make them very vulnerable to a takeover offer IMO with the share price low and all the hard work behind them.


If however we get to the end of May 2016 results and talks with the 3 parties above are still "progressing well" then I'm out unless sales are really outstanding. I don't think they have the luxury of time as the money is running out and competitors won't be sitting around. I'm aware this is a high risk speculative share and nothing is guaranteed. Management has missed a lot of goals but I put it more down to naivety and factors beyond their control than anything sinister or utter incompetence as alluded to by other posters.


It may well be that I am the naive one and time will tell. For the sake of the shareholders and more importantly for the advancement of cancer treatment I hope not. I for one will be very happy for this product to still be around should, heaven forbid, I need it one day.

I think you are right that they are most likely naive in a business sense--the selling of shares (not so sure)---I know what you are saying about the product being around in case you need it (I agree) that is ...unless a better one comes along.

[BlackPeter]

These are your criteria for what directors should and should not do. They are not necessarily the views of everyone else including the directors. These things have been done or not done, as the case may be, and blatting on about how terrible they are wont actually make one iota of difference to anything much unless of course you want to blow holes in your own credibility through endless repetition.
Ill leave you with that as weather conditions are producing phenomenal growth and as my wife wishes to go out I will have to take a machete to the undergrowth down the driveway.

Hi Miner, I know - reading balance's posts can be painful ... particularly if you own shares which are high risk and consistently trending downwards over a long time. He makes it just that bit more uncomfortable to keep the head stuck in the sand.

On the other hand ... I find his comments often a useful trigger to review the respective holding - and personally I found it in several cases difficult to justify to myself afterwards to keep holding the respective stocks - i.e. some of his comments in the past have been for me a useful (i.e. capital saving) trigger to sell out (PEB was one of them, CRP prior to the EPA decision another ...). Thank you, balance.

I have no issues with his credibility ... and as indicated, taking notice of his views did save me money in the past. Maybe he is not the most polished appraiser of dodgy shares, and yes - sometimes it appears he has the urge to repeat his views maybe once too often, however ignore him at your own peril.

I think he certainly brings some balance into thread like this, which used to be run by (for whatever reason) uncritical "fans of the company" ... no need to question his credibility.

And yes - I have as well my views about directors who sell (based on their better understanding of the company and the respective environment) hyped up shares ... and afterwards recommend to other shareholders to put money into the same company without contributing for themselves. All of PEB's directors are on my never-again list.

Seriously - would you condone the behaviour of the PEB directors? Sure, I suppose they didn't break any law, but are these really the people you want to look after your money?

[Beagle]

Hi Miner, I know - reading balance's posts can be painful ... particularly if you own shares which are high risk and consistently trending downwards over a long time. He makes it just that bit more uncomfortable to keep the head stuck in the sand.

On the other hand ... I find his comments often a useful trigger to review the respective holding - and personally I found it in several cases difficult to justify to myself afterwards to keep holding the respective stocks - i.e. some of his comments in the past have been for me a useful (i.e. capital saving) trigger to sell out (PEB was one of them, CRP prior to the EPA decision another ...). Thank you, balance.

I have no issues with his credibility ... and as indicated, taking notice of his views did save me money in the past. Maybe he is not the most polished appraiser of dodgy shares, and yes - sometimes it appears he has the urge to repeat his views maybe once too often, however ignore him at your own peril.

I think he certainly brings some balance into thread like this, which used to be run by (for whatever reason) uncritical "fans of the company" ... no need to question his credibility.

And yes - I have as well my views about directors who sell (based on their better understanding of the company and the respective environment) hyped up shares ... and afterwards recommend to other shareholders to put money into the same company without contributing for themselves. All of PEB's directors are on my never-again list.

Seriously - would you condone the behaviour of the PEB directors? Sure, I suppose they didn't break any law, but are these really the people you want to look after your money?

+1 Good post. Objective healthy debate is a always a helpful thing to shine light on murky situations.

[skid]

I think its helpful to note that there are some other seasoned investors (hoop-KW,among others)who have raised the red flag.
Sometimes posters will talk down a share for personal gain to buy cheaper,but I honestly think,that with the odd exception, that is not the case with this share.
To me,viewpoints leaning towards ''exercise caution'' are far different than ''buy up''
I can watch safely from the sidelines and see how they go about achieving the success they aspire to--I can always buy in when, or if the tide turns.
We decide whether we give PEB,or our capital the benefit of the doubt. If the story changes,we can change our opinions and investment decisions along with it.--that is the beauty of it.
If one is already holding,(large or small)then the decisions become much more difficult(especially at this stage) and each can only decide for themselves on that.

[Leftfield]

I think its helpful to note that there are some other seasoned investors (hoop-KW,among others)who have raised the red flag.
Sometimes posters will talk down a share for personal gain to buy cheaper,but I honestly think,that with the odd exception, that is not the case with this share.
To me,viewpoints leaning towards ''exercise caution'' are far different than ''buy up''
I can watch safely from the sidelines and see how they go about achieving the success they aspire to--I can always buy in when, or if the tide turns.
We decide whether we give PEB,or our capital the benefit of the doubt. If the story changes,we can change our opinions and investment decisions along with it.--that is the beauty of it.
If one is already holding,(large or small)then the decisions become much more difficult(especially at this stage) and each can only decide for themselves on that.

Well said…. all opinions appreciated in any forum.

The red flag was certainly waved and appreciated however, it is/was the ad nauseum repetition of certain polarized viewpoints that I don't think is/was helpful and seemed to have led to several good posters leaving.

My personal choice has been to block certain posters and get on with life.

[Minerbarejet]

Thats not true--It makes an Iota of difference because it establishes a reference to the character of directors if they sold for the reasons stated.

And how have they done with SELLING all that great midkine science--up to now they hav'nt really done it justice have they?

Your always going to be rowing against the current until they actually start to deliver--(but its good that someone(ahem..)asked you to come back to bat for them.);) You havent quite got it, Skid.
How the heck do you sell something that is not approved to a subsection of your market. I think they have done pretty well with half the market.
I dont mind rowing upstream with a cricket bat, mate - think of the rewards when the boat turns around.
And currently i am not batting for anybody, its just net practise.:) Ahem

[Minerbarejet]

Hi Miner, I know - reading balance's posts can be painful ... particularly if you own shares which are high risk and consistently trending downwards over a long time. He makes it just that bit more uncomfortable to keep the head stuck in the sand.

On the other hand ... I find his comments often a useful trigger to review the respective holding - and personally I found it in several cases difficult to justify to myself afterwards to keep holding the respective stocks - i.e. some of his comments in the past have been for me a useful (i.e. capital saving) trigger to sell out (PEB was one of them, CRP prior to the EPA decision another ...). Thank you, balance.

I have no issues with his credibility ... and as indicated, taking notice of his views did save me money in the past. Maybe he is not the most polished appraiser of dodgy shares, and yes - sometimes it appears he has the urge to repeat his views maybe once too often, however ignore him at your own peril.

I think he certainly brings some balance into thread like this, which used to be run by (for whatever reason) uncritical "fans of the company" ... no need to question his credibility.

And yes - I have as well my views about directors who sell (based on their better understanding of the company and the respective environment) hyped up shares ... and afterwards recommend to other shareholders to put money into the same company without contributing for themselves. All of PEB's directors are on my never-again list.

Seriously - would you condone the behaviour of the PEB directors? Sure, I suppose they didn't break any law, but are these really the people you want to look after your money?

Hi BP,
Spit ,spit, cough, ahem. Blast this sand.
If you would care to read what I wrote again you will see that I don't have any issues with his credibility either. I merely stated that he was in danger of blowing holes in it through endless repetition.
Its a bit like nailing a thick plank onto a fence. Once the nail has been driven in most people usually stop. Those that continue to pound away will end up firstly bruising, then splintering the wood until the hammer goes right through. whereupon the plank falls off.
There is then a sudden dramatic realization that the original intent has been completely negated by these efforts.

Directors are human, they have their own dosh in there mostly, they have needs or possible financial crises that need addressing.
Its not as if they all sold out completely. Have they sold any since? No.

Has the thread been overcome by critical "foes of the company". No
It's all part of a "balanced" debate.:)
Cheers
Back to the sand
Miner. (cough, splutter)

[Balance]

Hi BP,
Spit ,spit, cough, ahem. Blast this sand.
If you would care to read what I wrote again you will see that I don't have any issues with his credibility either. I merely stated that he was in danger of blowing holes in it through endless repetition.
Its a bit like nailing a thick plank onto a fence. Once the nail has been driven in most people usually stop. Those that continue to pound away will end up firstly bruising, then splintering the wood until the hammer goes right through. whereupon the plank falls off.
There is then a sudden dramatic realization that the original intent has been completely negated by these efforts.

Directors are human, they have their own dosh in there mostly, they have needs or possible financial crises that need addressing.
Its not as if they all sold out completely. Have they sold any since? No.

Has the thread been overcome by critical "foes of the company". No
It's all part of a "balanced" debate.:)
Cheers
Back to the sand
Miner. (cough, splutter)

Funny, I never have a problem with nailing a thick plank to a fence? It's usually the thick plank which finally gets it after repeated hammering.

Thanks to all those who have acknowledged my contribution to their decisions which saved them money - it is my pleasure.

[trader_jackson]

Funny, I never have a problem with nailing a thick plank to a fence? It's usually the thick plank which finally gets it after repeated hammering.

Thanks to all those who have acknowledged my contribution to their decisions which saved them money - it is my pleasure.

The way I see it, is you only lose 'money' when you sell the shares at a lower price than what you paid for them (obviously take into account brokerage and other costs)

Anyway... those who have sold based on Balance's information (which really shouldn't happen - its a thread and everything on here should be automatically deemed DYOR, but anyway...), I hope you enjoyed booking the cash losses. But hey, maybe you were the smart ones to take a small, large or what ever sized cash loss now, it could be far worse this time next year, or (most likely) far far better. Maybe you can buy on the way up? Good for you (brokerage is quite a cost of me and I don't have that much cash to through around trading on the nzx - I suppose it depends on the situation you are in - like when DD sold some shares to build a deck [not all of them, like some members would imply] - but hey nobody remembers this, almost everyone on here claims he sold because of the 'hype')

What amazes me is how people continue to not actually focus on the business (eg income increasing far more than expenses as a %), but instead insist on personal attacks on management or even other members on here (without taking much into consideration), bring up 'selected bad news' articles (which are generally completely out of date, brought up before, or extremely vague its hard to tell whats going on), and seem to think that because things are running slightly behind schedule (or at least some would argue this) its all managements fault (and ignore the fact its generally buracratic issues). It is, unfortunately, thanks to people that continually make these statements that quality members, who actually understood PEB inside out, have left in droves.:(

Also, I would personally be careful about making claims such as "saving people money"

[Balance]

Also, I would personally be careful about making claims such as "saving people money"

As acknowledged by them, not me :D

Also, those who sold can now buy back if they want to - getting double or treble the numbers of shares they sold out at. :D

[Minerbarejet]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.
Balance, we got the point of all this 25 pages ago.
And have taken appropriate action where we see fit, with dangers pointed out endlessly by yourself and others taken into account. But in the final analysis the decision, whatever it is, remains our own.
If you would be so kind could you please stop hitting the plank. Its already up. Theres a good chap.
Noah fence

[Crackity]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.
Balance, we got the point of all this 25 pages ago.
And have taken appropriate action where we see fit, with dangers pointed out endlessly by yourself and others taken into account. But in the final analysis the decision, whatever it is, remains our own.
If you would be so kind could you please stop hitting the plank. Its already up. Theres a good chap.
Noah fence

As a classically educated chap this is starting to remind me of the myth of Sisyphus :)

now - who wants to be the boulder?

[skid]

You havent quite got it, Skid.
How the heck do you sell something that is not approved to a subsection of your market. I think they have done pretty well with half the market.
I dont mind rowing upstream with a cricket bat, mate - think of the rewards when the boat turns around.
And currently i am not batting for anybody, its just net practise.:) Ahem

Quote-Thanks- I was asked to stay on as a distributor of glad tidings as they come to light by others who don't have the time to engage in this verbal combat such as it is

Perhaps I should have rephrased that(the word ''bat'' was indeed not used):)

How the hell do you sell it? No ones stopping them from getting out there and selling their product.
Whats the use of hiring salespeople if they are not going to convince the market they need this product ..Kaiser or no kaiser.

[skid]

The way I see it, is you only lose 'money' when you sell the shares at a lower price than what you paid for them (obviously take into account brokerage and other costs)

Anyway... those who have sold based on Balance's information (which really shouldn't happen - its a thread and everything on here should be automatically deemed DYOR, but anyway...), I hope you enjoyed booking the cash losses. But hey, maybe you were the smart ones to take a small, large or what ever sized cash loss now, it could be far worse this time next year, or (most likely) far far better. Maybe you can buy on the way up? Good for you (brokerage is quite a cost of me and I don't have that much cash to through around trading on the nzx - I suppose it depends on the situation you are in - like when DD sold some shares to build a deck [not all of them, like some members would imply] - but hey nobody remembers this, almost everyone on here claims he sold because of the 'hype')

What amazes me is how people continue to not actually focus on the business (eg income increasing far more than expenses as a %), but instead insist on personal attacks on management or even other members on here (without taking much into consideration), bring up 'selected bad news' articles (which are generally completely out of date, brought up before, or extremely vague its hard to tell whats going on), and seem to think that because things are running slightly behind schedule (or at least some would argue this) its all managements fault (and ignore the fact its generally buracratic issues). It is, unfortunately, thanks to people that continually make these statements that quality members, who actually understood PEB inside out, have left in droves.:(

Also, I would personally be careful about making claims such as "saving people money"

TJ ,you are a hoot (In an amusing way)--You have managed to establish that DD sold the shares to buy a deck???:eek2:

Your ''paper losses are not real losses''are laughable ,IMO---To put it simply--would you rather have sold @86c or be where you are now. With all due respect-thinking your losses are not real till you cash in is just running away from ones shadow--You dont have that money--its pure and simple--You cant do anything with it--Its gone ...onto paper.---You can try to get it back,but for now, its gone.--That person who sold you those shares can now buy heaps more with your dosh--Im not saying to sell ,but rationalizing is wasted time-its not a valid argument.
Those bad news stories should be taken on board to reassess the risk involved--If you want to stay in ..fine (but the odds are looking a bit worse to many who have DYOR.
''Saving people money'' is unfortunately been the only game in town for a long while now.-but to be safe ,how about ''saved myself alot of money'' is that ok?
I suppose I could take my dosh and buy maybe twice the amount of shares you(or some)bought @ double the price,but Ive not seen enough good reason to jump on that train.
Those ''most likelys''arent panning out so cautioin is not a silly idea atm.

[skid]

As a classically educated chap this is starting to remind me of the myth of Sisyphus :)

now - who wants to be the boulder?

We cant push it up the hill anymore--Its got a crackity in it:)

[Minerbarejet]

Quote-Thanks- I was asked to stay on as a distributor of glad tidings as they come to light by others who dont have time to engage in this verbal combat such as it is

Perhaps I should have rephrased that(the word ''bat'' was indeed not used):)

How the hell do you sell it? No ones stopping them from getting out there and selling their product.
Whats the use of hiring salespeople if they are not going to convince the market they need this product ..Kaiser or no kaiser.
1. There have been no glad tidings for distribution therefore all mutterings are of my own construction.
2. The bat. No worries, I have a handle on it.
3. How do you sell something to someone who is not allowed to buy it.
Approval by CMS and VA is required before the sales person can even get in the door to those parts of the US healthcare system under their jurisdiction.
The hold up has nothing to do with salespersons expertise.
4. Kaiser are a different ball of wax. They will take their time to do their trial of triage.
Their program will probably speed up considerably when the CLIA approval for Triage at Hershey comes through.
In the meantime Dunedin will do them I suppose.

[Minerbarejet]

TJ ,you are a hoot (In an amusing way)--You have managed to establish that DD sold the shares to buy a deck??

Your ''paper losses are not real losses''are laughable ,IMO---To put it simply--would you rather have sold @86c or be where you are now. With all due respect-thinking your losses are not real till you cash in is just running away from ones shadow--You dont have that money--its pure and simple--You cant do anything with it--Its gone ...onto paper.---You can try to get it back,but for now, its gone.--That person who sold you those shares can now buy heaps more with your dosh--Im not saying to sell ,but rationalizing is wasted time-its not a valid argument.
Those bad news stories should be taken on board to reassess the risk involved--If you want to stay in ..fine (but the odds are looking a bit worse to many who have DYOR.
''Saving people money'' is unfortunately been the only game in town for a long while now.-but to be safe ,how about ''saved myself alot of money'' is that ok?
I suppose I could take my dosh and buy maybe twice the amount of shares you(or some)bought @ double the price,but Ive not seen enough good reason to jump on that train.
Those ''most likelys''arent panning out so cautioin is not a silly idea atm.
Looks to me that TJ may have actually read this thread. The selling of shares to buy a deck was a subject of discussion on here long before TJ ever became part of the scene. However that is probably unverifiable due to the length of the thread and posts missing. Feel free to do a reread, though.
Shouldnt take more than a few weeks. By then we may have some glad tidings:)

[winner69]

Anybody done (or updated) a DCF for PEB?

T_j --- you would have updated yours after the HY. What's it saying - still the $1.70 /$1.85 range?

[nextbigthing]

Anybody done (or updated) a DCF for PEB?

T_j --- you would have updated yours after the HY. What's it saying - still the $1.70 /$1.85 range?

It's saying that these cheap shares are a great opportunity for people to top up. Tick tock, up up and away.

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11555226

"Stay away from companies that point to the blue sky but lack a demonstrable track record of growth or momentum in the business."

Sounds like a company we all know?

[winner69]

Base Case Valuation: FY15 $1.85

Happy as always to further share and compare analysis, research and replication offline with those whom may have a genuine interest in doing so.

Sensitivity Analysis:



Base Case (as below)
$1.85


De-risked Valuation WACC 10.0%
$2.50


High Risk Case WACC 13.5%
$1.50


Revenue Target One Year Early (FY18 NZ$100M)
$2.30


Revenue Target One Year Late (FY20 NZ$100M)
$1.50


Base Case Basis:

DCF, WACC 12.0%, 30yr PG 3.0%, NZ$100M in revenues at FY19 as affirmed by Pacific Edge, profitability by HY16, gross margins 81% as estimated by Pacific Edge, no significant capital outlay required until laboratory extensions are needed $6M at HY20 and $6M at FY22, long run exchange rate USD0.85. This base case does not include revenues from non commercialised pipeline products presently within development, nor does it include a valuation of patents and non commercialised IP.

Think was MACs last valuation on a DCF basis.

I keep updating my DCF. Pretty easy really - just push everything out another year and add to more to expenses as they seem to be going up and up.

Currently my DCF valuation is 69 cents to 81 cents (growth/margin sensitivities)

As MAC always reminded me that is only for CxBladder - you need to add the sausage machine to get a full value for PEB

Of course this assumes Higgs go to plan

[skid]

Looks to me that TJ may have actually read this thread. The selling of shares to buy a deck was a subject of discussion on here long before TJ ever became part of the scene. However that is probably unverifiable due to the length of the thread and posts missing. Feel free to do a reread, though.
Shouldnt take more than a few weeks. By then we may have some glad tidings:)

Surely you remember when everyone was taking guesses at rationalizing why directors sold--its amusing when wild guesses become fact(by a poster)--a new deck was one of the more amusing ones--Its easy to remember those.(some may read that and actually think its true)

Disc-Ive never said they were outright dishonest--but did suggest incompetence (time will tell on that one)

[Minerbarejet]

Surely you remember when everyone was taking guesses at rationalizing why directors sold--its amusing when wild guesses become fact(by a poster)--a new deck was one of the more amusing ones--Its easy to remember those.(some may read that and actually think its true)

Disc-Ive never said they were outright dishonest--but did suggest incompetence (time will tell on that one)
Yes very amusing. Bloody hilarious in fact. All the daggers, vitriol, asinine accusations and general poppycock aimed at someone who sold 100,000 shares out of several million to do house extensions. House extensions can on occasion involve a deck or two.
Thank goodness he didn't sell 101,000. What a massive sale on DDs part. Its almost as many as I sold one day along the way. And bought back.:)
5 Pacific Edge boss explains his share sale, says market overreacted | The National Business Reviewhttp://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific*edge*boss*explains*his*share*sale*says*mar ket*overreacted*db*p*153275 1/3Pacific Edge boss explains his share sale, saysmarket overreactedDUNCAN BRIDGEMAN · FRIDAY MARCH 14, 2014

[Crackity]

daggers, vitriol, asinine accusations and general poppycock


A perfect summation of this thread - thanks Miner ;)

[skid]

Yes very amusing. Bloody hilarious in fact. All the daggers, vitriol, asinine accusations and general poppycock aimed at someone who sold 100,000 shares out of several million to do house extensions. House extensions can on occasion involve a deck or two.
Thank goodness he didn't sell 101,000. What a massive sale on DDs part. Its almost as many as I sold one day along the way. And bought back.:)
5 Pacific Edge boss explains his share sale, says market overreacted | The National Business Reviewhttp://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacific*edge*boss*explains*his*share*sale*says*mar ket*overreacted*db*p*153275 1/3Pacific Edge boss explains his share sale, saysmarket overreactedDUNCAN BRIDGEMAN · FRIDAY MARCH 14, 2014

Settle down miner --no need to throw toys

[Minerbarejet]

A perfect summation of this thread - thanks Miner ;)
Comes from pushing rocks uphill.
Hows the flamingoes?
Cheers
Miner

[Crackity]

Comes from pushing rocks uphill.
Hows the flamingoes?
Cheers
Miner


Still pink:)

[Minerbarejet]

Still pink:)Let me know if they get on the green side, Ill try and get some more for you.:)

[Crackity]

Let me know if they get on the green side, Ill try and get some more for you.:)

Flamingos' colors can range from pale pink to crimson, depending on the amount of pigment present in the bird (http://www.livescience.com/32709-why-dont-woodpeckers-get-headaches.html) 's diet. Carotenoid levels in algae and crustaceans (http://www.livescience.com/32289-how-do-oysters-make-pearls.html) vary in different parts of the world, which is why Caribbean flamingos are usually bright red and orange, while flamingos of the drought-plagued Lake Nakuru in central Kenya tend to be a paler pink.
If a flamingo were to suddenly stop eating food containing carotenoids, its new feathers would begin grow in with a much more pale shade, with its reddish feathers eventually molting away.
So the next time you spot a pink flamingo, let it serve as a reminder that, sometimes, you really are what you eat.

anyway back to PEB - things are all good - up 1.5 to 45 cents today - no probs people :)

[Minerbarejet]

Very informative post. Thank you.
Ill be off to buy a bag of carrots to restore my hair colour to its former glory
PEB seems to have settled down.
We await developments with US CLIA triage approval, closely followed by VA and the Full Triage launch.
Just for starters.:)

[skid]

Yep,no reason to think it wont be range bound for a while now

Crackity--your starting to sound like Tsuba:)

[Tsuba]

Yep,no reason to think it wont be range bound for a while now

Crackity--your starting to sound like Tsuba:)

My kind of guy Skid. Birds rock !!!

Now are these guys confused or not. They need some BALANCE and logic in their thinking to move on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-krDuUeQgDA

[Balance]

My kind of guy Skid. Birds rock !!!

Now are these guys confused or not. They need some BALANCE and logic in their thinking to move on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-krDuUeQgDA

Haha - looks like PEB's management in action!

Love it!

:D

[Minerbarejet]

Haha - looks like PEB's management in action!

Love it!

:D
I reckon its actually Anthony and Cleopatra Quayle.:)

Cant be PEB, theres none of the smoke from the claimed "smoke and mirrors" around.

And again :D

[Carpenterjoe]

KP out spending again, client base to grow by another 500,000.

http://www.king5.com/story/news/local/2015/12/04/kaiser-permanente-acquire-seattle-based-group-health/76785072/

Hope they save a couple of dimes for cx bladder.

[skid]

https://healthy.kaiserpermanente.org/health/care/!ut/p/a0/FchBCsIwEAXQE5UPVdC68wxFNNmUcTp0gskklMHS22uX7yHihW j0TQt5qkb578DVXMxvKpRdOzHeOdcmcyI8ERHbSkshBKsdE6sc x743Qfi8D-iWZgTd-v4yDGeMYtNjRCvleirT_Qd-F8yI/

This is a test for urinary tract infections--notice how they say you can BUY the test rather than its covered

Meanwhile its CX bladder vs their new Hematuria Risk Index which if used will either take the place or drastically reduce the no. of patients for tests?

http://share.kaiserpermanente.org/article/kaiser-permanente-study-suggests-tests-routinely-done-on-patients-with-microscopic-blood-in-urine-can-be-avoided/

They (KP) are growing though--I read they were going to buy or merge with some outfit out East as well.

Most of the chips have been pushed on to KPs table so the story continues...

[Crackity]

You see this more in investment than anything else. People buy an investment which then falls in value. They hold on to it, telling themselves that they will sell it when it gets back to what they paid for it – holding on and hoping it avoids a loss.
Actually, they already have the loss and would be best to sell the investment and get the money that they have left into something better. The original investment is clearly a dog and will probably remain a dog. In the words of Warren Buffett, you do not have to make money back the same way you lost it.
Whatever the project, it is hard to write off sunk cost. It is hard to forget the time, effort and money you have invested and move on.
Pride comes into the decision to discontinue, but worse to give up and move on confirms the sunk cost is truly sunk. While you still carry on with the project (investment, a business or our own jobs) there is always a little hope that you will rescue things.
To stop is to remove all pretence that things will come right – the initial investment is sunk for certain and we have to own up to failure.
If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. Cut your losses and spend your energy trying to find something better rather than worrying about past losses and sunk costs.



the Martin Hawes investment column in Stuff today - apologies in advance if you think I have posted this on the wrong thread ;)

[Minerbarejet]

All very well said and done about putting it into something better. Unfortunately you dont know that before you bail out into something else. Murphy's law will usually dictate the outcome of anything - an edict that applies even to itself at times allowing one to make a satisfactory profit.
Martin obviously wasnt a shareholder of AIR at 1.50 before it went to 85c.:)

[skid]

All very well said and done about putting it into something better. Unfortunately you dont know that before you bail out into something else. Murphy's law will usually dictate the outcome of anything - an edict that applies even to itself at times allowing one to make a satisfactory profit.
Martin obviously wasnt a shareholder of AIR at 1.50 before it went to 85c.:)

If Martin practices what he preaches he would have exited before it got to .85

I remember Mac being a great fan of ATM along with PEB--If he is still holding he will certainly be happy with the former.