PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[BlackPeter]

Many companies listed on the NZX have higher market capitalisations than PEB, but also don't make profit yet.

Many? I can think of two (XRO and OHE). "Many" must be more than two or three or four. Can you name at least 3 more companies on the NZX with a marketcap over $250m which never made a profit?

[When the bass drops]

Many? I can think of two (XRO and OHE). "Many" must be more than two or three or four. Can you name at least 3 more companies on the NZX with a marketcap over $250m which never made a profit?

Sorry BP, I can trawl through all the stocks on the NZX to answer your question if you like - let's just say I should have said 'some'. Those 2 spring to mind, particularly OHE. I remember when they floated, a darling of some private equity firms, and their SP has gradually headed south over the last 15 months.

SLI has been worth as high as $175m market cap and apart from 2012 has experienced y-on-y losses. I wouldn't class sp movements too dissimilar to PEB, in that market sentiment has moved it around like a rag doll.

Vista Group, although having experienced slight profitability for FY15, decided not to pay a dividend (rather forgoing paying one until FY16). Is their market cap, as high as $480m in late 2015, also justified at this point?

[skid]

What do you think the company should be valued at? $25m? Or $0 as some of the posters on this thread will have you believe. Let's just say that market sentiment justifies the $250m valuation .. there's your justification.

Many companies listed on the NZX have higher market capitalisations than PEB, but also don't make profit yet.

I think you both have a point--Its a fair call Meister--Its pretty flimsy evidence for a share price rise like this ..and WTBD--I think market Sentiment is something most would agree on at this stage--perhaps many were waiting for so long that this news lit a fire--of course the next results are the only way to tell on fundamentals...meanwhile who knows where the herd will go --guess it depends on more announcements and whether things will translate into sales---Whether the USA will take notice of a New Zealand districts take up of one of the diagnostic products(after tests)remains to be seen.(where did you say New Zealand was again?)
Welcome back Bulls--it was boring without you:)

[jridler]

Hi all, would like to add a TA perspective to this thread. Certainly not an expert by any means but interested in TA theory. Please feel free to add your own interpretation. Recent price action has confirmed a breakout of the down-trend trading range initiated in Sep-15, triggered by recent FA catalysts it would seem. Strong support around 0.40 mark. SP has hit a resistance level at 0.65-0.66 so will be interesting to see where we head next, with stronger resistance around the 0.90-0.95 region, confirmed by 38.2% fib level.

From an FA perspective, this company has plenty of potential but needs to realise that in the timelines that have been provided. These milestones are ambitious, but have been spoken with such confidence and repetition that SH will not forget them in a hurry.

Disclosure: holding, and holding tightly (in for the long-haul).

7945

[Carpenterjoe]

I think people need to be financially careful with my beloved PEB,

I think we are 12-18 months off another CR. tho, I'm not sure where its coming from, NZ or USA.

A few holders might be selling anticipating the next CR.

I see this baby heading the right direction, but it will take sooooooooooooooooooo much time and another 50 mil.

Pathways and guidelines are very behind the times, two back one forward.

I've licked my finger, chucked the sucker in the air and value Peb between 50-500mil, one announcement could stuff those numbers in any direction.

Good luck people!

[Meister]

What do you think the company should be valued at? $25m? Or $0 as some of the posters on this thread will have you believe. Let's just say that market sentiment justifies the $250m valuation .. there's your justification.

Many companies listed on the NZX have higher market capitalisations than PEB, but also don't make profit yet.

It isn't necessarily about the lack of profit, but also about the growth rate. I realise it is 'early days' for PEB but that was perhaps my point - there is very little sales growth evidence and therefore the valuation of $250M is heavy speculation. That is fair enough for some, but due to the repeated failings of this company to live up to their own hype, I think speculating to the tune of a $250M valuation is a dangerous game. I am looking for solid sales growth figures before I start believing the story again.

Sales growth from $1.4M to $1.8M was reported last half from the half immediately before, and was disappointing. If they hit $5.5-6M in product sales for the full financial year, and finally announce the completion of all the agreements we are waiting on, then perhaps I could see them being valued greater than $120M. Less than that and the growth story just isn't there (yet?).

[Carpenterjoe]

It isn't necessarily about the lack of profit, but also about the growth rate. I realise it is 'early days' for PEB but that was perhaps my point - there is very little sales growth evidence and therefore the valuation of $250M is heavy speculation. That is fair enough for some, but due to the repeated failings of this company to live up to their own hype, I think speculating to the tune of a $250M valuation is a dangerous game. I am looking for solid sales growth figures before I start believing the story again.

Sales growth from $1.4M to $1.8M was reported last half from the half immediately before, and was disappointing. If they hit $5.5-6M in product sales for the full financial year, and finally announce the completion of all the agreements we are waiting on, then perhaps I could see them being valued greater than $120M. Less than that and the growth story just isn't there (yet?).

Meister, I understand your direction regarding growth, but this is not small margins milk and its not software. Our life saving product is not sold to every day joe's. Our margins are large once a network is developed. The NZX has no other product similar, hence it might be over valued compared to international companies! valuation is a tough one.

[skid]

With those thoughts in mind, on option would be to hold (while the market is turning positive--hype?) and perhaps sell before the next results.(in anticipation they will not support the sentiment)--nothing is without chance ,but if the results are glowing(It would be interesting to know how many think they will be) you could buy back in--it would be more expensive ,but you would have a better idea they are on track.

[BlackPeter]

It isn't necessarily about the lack of profit, but also about the growth rate. I realise it is 'early days' for PEB but that was perhaps my point - there is very little sales growth evidence and therefore the valuation of $250M is heavy speculation. That is fair enough for some, but due to the repeated failings of this company to live up to their own hype, I think speculating to the tune of a $250M valuation is a dangerous game. I am looking for solid sales growth figures before I start believing the story again.

Sales growth from $1.4M to $1.8M was reported last half from the half immediately before, and was disappointing. If they hit $5.5-6M in product sales for the full financial year, and finally announce the completion of all the agreements we are waiting on, then perhaps I could see them being valued greater than $120M. Less than that and the growth story just isn't there (yet?).

Agree - though I am not sure whether I would call it after more than 10 years for PEB still "early days". Sure - things move slower in the medical industry, but even there is a decade a long time.

As far as the valuation is concerned - I guess the answer is quite easy.

Just take a DCF template and feed it with a handful of assumptions. Fiddle as long as you like with the assumptions and if you get a SP value above the current SP, than ask yourself, whether your assumptions look still reasonable (i.e. (1) nobody in history achieved a similar growth and margin, (2) only a handful of corporate top achievers did similar things before, (3) a number of companies in the past did better than your assumptions or (4) any company not run by an absolute moron could do better?

If you come up with (3) or (4), than go for it and buy some more. If you come up with (1) or (2) - than ask yourself, how likely it is that PEB is equal or better than the most successful companies in the world. If nobody did it before, than maybe a lottery ticket is a better investment - at the end, there are people around who managed to win the lottery before.

Here is my attempt: I assumed that PEB will reach this year the 9 million revenue some analysts claim and keep growing its revenue from there by 75% pa (remember - this is wishful thinking, it never ever before did that), slowing down over 10 years to a more sustainable 12% (still quite fast, but not impossible). I assumed as well that margins stay roughly in the area where they would be today if they would be able to sell their tests (o.k. in reality costs per test will come down, but price as well) and if we assume that they keep growing from 2026 with the 12% rate for the next decade until 2036, than my DCF says that the share has (assuming a high risk discount rate of 16%) a NPV of 37 cents.

Ouch. Obviously Mr. Market is still more optimistic than that - or does not do DCF. Obviously - the number of parameters to fiddle with is unlimited. Is the margin really likely to stay in the regions where optimists think it might end up with? Will PEB take off at all? Will the world have in 10 years a much better test and nobody using Cxbladder anymore?

On the positive side ... admittedly - this calculation is very sensitive to the assumed initial growth rate, If I start with 100% (instead of 75%) initial growth rate pa (i.e. 18 million revenue in 2017), than the NPV of the share would be already 87 cents.

Oh yes - and if I use a 300% starting growth rate (which would bring them close to the 100 million revenue they promised in 2018), than the NPV of the PEB share would be nearly $38. What a bargain ... buy them if you trust their promises;).

Would be interested to get from the optimists on this thread some ideas what revenue growth and cost they put into their DCF to convince themselves that it is a good idea to buy PEB at current market price.

[winner69]

BP - The days are long, but the decades are short.'

In reference to your "10 years for PEB still early days' comment

[biker]

.............As far as the valuation is concerned - I guess the answer is quite easy............


........Here is my attempt: ..................my DCF says that the share has (assuming a high risk discount rate of 16%) a NPV of 37 cents............

...................On the positive side ... admittedly - this calculation is very sensitive to the assumed initial growth rate, If I start with 100% (instead of 75%) initial growth rate pa (i.e. 18 million revenue in 2017), than the NPV of the share would be already 87 cents.

Oh yes - and if I use a 300% starting growth rate (which would bring them close to the 100 million revenue they promised in 2018), than the NPV of the PEB share would be nearly $38.

Thanks BP. Good to know we now have a narrow range of PEB share value. Somewhere between 37c and $38.

[trader_jackson]

Thanks BP. Good to know we now have a narrow range of PEB share value. Somewhere between 37c and $38.

Take the average ;)

[BlackPeter]

Thanks BP. Good to know we now have a narrow range of PEB share value. Somewhere between 37c and $38.

Very funny - and apologies that I was that unclear in communicating my views. Just for the record - I didn't intend to define with these examples a range, just gave some examples illustrating how unlikely in my view a NPV above the current SP would be.

If you want to set a range for the SP value, than I think the lower boundary for PEB clearly needs to sit at NIL (in my view a quite likely outcome). As upper boundary (say 90%) I would pick a value well below the quoted 37 cents.

The other values are just (for arguments sake) assuming that some of PEB's predictions might be true, but personally I think that the story of Santa Claus and the Easter bunny would have more credibility.

However - why don't you just give us your DCF assumptions (and the reasons behind them) - would make a much better discussion?

[biker]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;613138]Very funny - and apologies that I was that unclear......

/QUOTE]

And apologies that I was trying to be funny.

[RGR367]

Exchanges here never fail to make me smile :)

[skid]

Very funny - and apologies that I was that unclear in communicating my views. Just for the record - I didn't intend to define with these examples a range, just gave some examples illustrating how unlikely in my view a NPV above the current SP would be.

If you want to set a range for the SP value, than I think the lower boundary for PEB clearly needs to sit at NIL (in my view a quite likely outcome). As upper boundary (say 90%) I would pick a value well below the quoted 37 cents.

The other values are just (for arguments sake) assuming that some of PEB's predictions might be true, but personally I think that the story of Santa Claus and the Easter bunny would have more credibility.

However - why don't you just give us your DCF assumptions (and the reasons behind them) - would make a much better discussion?

That was totally unfair BP........letting the cat out of the bag about the Easter Bunny so close to Easter---Im shattered! (and Santa too--Are you sure about that?)....(now that the myth has been blown,I fear everyone's going to start being naughty again (and that aint pretty on this thread)---Enjoy your Easter treats all..(who ever brings them):(
:):):):):)

[Minerbarejet]

That was totally unfair BP........letting the cat out of the bag about the Easter Bunny so close to Easter---Im shattered! (and Santa too--Are you sure about that?)....(now that the myth has been blown,I fear everyone's going to start being naughty again (and that aint pretty on this thread)---Enjoy your Easter treats all..(who ever brings them):(
:):):):):)There is a parenthesis missing ---(amongst other things).
Just thought you should know.:)

[skid]

There is a parenthesis missing ---(amongst other things).
Just thought you should know.:)

Thank you Miner..
Here you go ) It fell on the floor

[Minerbarejet]

Thank you Miner..
Here you go ) It fell on the floorI hope you washed and dried it before you put it back up here.:)

[skid]

I would have ,but I was afraid it was going to shrink....just dont touch it--just to cover myself in the future (((((((( :) )))))))--Happy Easter to all

[Minerbarejet]

That wont be enough, you will use all those in one post.:)

[Mr Tommy]

Just been dealing with my urologist, he booked me in for an MRI and cystoscopy. All covered by Southern Cross, as the cystoscopy is considered a surgical procedure. I asked about cxbladder, he said I could do that instead of the cystoscopy but would have to pay myself.

So I ended up paying for the cxbladder test, it was all clear so the urologist cancelled the cystoscopy. Phew. Saved Southern Cross a small fortune.

You would think with 800,000 members that Southern Cross would be a key target user of cxbladder in NZ.
I rung them up, spoke to the lady on pre-approvals, she had never heard of it.

[When the bass drops]

Just been dealing with my urologist, he booked me in for an MRI and cystoscopy. All covered by Southern Cross, as the cystoscopy is considered a surgical procedure. I asked about cxbladder, he said I could do that instead of the cystoscopy but would have to pay myself.

So I ended up paying for the cxbladder test, it was all clear so the urologist cancelled the cystoscopy. Phew. Saved Southern Cross a small fortune.

You would think with 800,000 members that Southern Cross would be a key target user of cxbladder in NZ.
I rung them up, spoke to the lady on pre-approvals, she had never heard of it.

It certainly shows the Cxbladder product still requires a lot of cut-through in New Zealand, whether its DHB's or health insurers. With the C DHB contract, it may help with this profile issue if the result is positive after the 12 months.

My consistent personal view is that its pretty much as difficult to convince the NZ health groups as the US ones. Urologists fighting hard, or being resistant to change, to keep things traditional status-quo for monetary reasons.

The mantra should definitely be ,, Drum up the user programs & target the health insurers direct (in an effort to gain test reimbursement), don't bother with the urologists who are set to lose a large part of their traditional methods revenues if Cxbladder and other products like it get significant cut-through and become the primary tool. The urologists will at some point (through necessity) come on board on mass.

Cautiously optimistic. Watching closely.

[cammo]

Once you knew about it, youd rather pay $$$ than have a rod up your Johnson for free? Bodes well for us, but not for Mr cytoscopy. Preservation of existing urology income streams is the biggest thing hindering peb. Educate the masses to ask for it, not the urologists PEB! Put it on the urinal advertising at Auckland's bars!!

[Mr Tommy]

Once you knew about it, youd rather pay $$$ than have a rod up your Johnson for free? Bodes well for us, but not for Mr cytoscopy. Preservation of existing urology income streams is the biggest thing hindering peb. Educate the masses to ask for it, not the urologists PEB! Put it on the urinal advertising at Auckland's bars!!

Easy choice for me, a "surgical procedure" or pee in a pottle. Yep I did get the impression he was more keen to do the procedure, as he makes nothing out of the cxbladder test. But it was a 4 week wait for the probe, and the cxbladder was back in a few days, so less days worrying too.

[skid]

It certainly shows the Cxbladder product still requires a lot of cut-through in New Zealand, whether its DHB's or health insurers. With the C DHB contract, it may help with this profile issue if the result is positive after the 12 months.

My consistent personal view is that its pretty much as difficult to convince the NZ health groups as the US ones. Urologists fighting hard, or being resistant to change, to keep things traditional status-quo for monetary reasons.

The mantra should definitely be ,, Drum up the user programs & target the health insurers direct (in an effort to gain test reimbursement), don't bother with the urologists who are set to lose a large part of their traditional methods revenues if Cxbladder and other products like it get significant cut-through and become the primary tool. The urologists will at some point (through necessity) come on board on mass.

Cautiously optimistic. Watching closely.

The other thing to consider is the labs throughout the USA who would lose the business(the other urine tests farm out to them--some urologists have even taken kick backs)

Its a complicated game involving the medical establishment--big business influence-and what is actually the best for the patient

[Minerbarejet]

Just been dealing with my urologist, he booked me in for an MRI and cystoscopy. All covered by Southern Cross, as the cystoscopy is considered a surgical procedure. I asked about cxbladder, he said I could do that instead of the cystoscopy but would have to pay myself.

So I ended up paying for the cxbladder test, it was all clear so the urologist cancelled the cystoscopy. Phew. Saved Southern Cross a small fortune.

You would think with 800,000 members that Southern Cross would be a key target user of cxbladder in NZ.
I rung them up, spoke to the lady on pre-approvals, she had never heard of it.Were you referred to the urologist by a physician, doctor, GP?
This would be normal procedure for most people. This is Primary Care at the first contact through the physician.
Cxbladder Triage is for use by Primary Caregivers before referral to a urologist. A negative result would then eliminate the tying up of urologists, theatres and serious amounts of equipment and money in Secondary Care for the same result. This in turn reduces the amount of time the unfortunate people who have a positive result will have to wait for cystoscopy. Eliminates a few possible side effects of cystoscopy as well. Erectile dysfunction and infections down there just add to the treatment required in the long run besides being decidedly uncomfortable.

[Hectorplains]

The other thing to consider is the labs throughout the USA who would lose the business(the other urine tests farm out to them--some urologists have even taken kick backs)

Its a complicated game involving the medical establishment--big business influence-and what is actually the best for the patient

Ah, the PEB thread, always good for a conspiracy theory.

So the lack of traction in the US is down to evil laboratories and urologists on the take...

[Harveyp]

What has been happening in the PEB world?

[Minerbarejet]

What has been happening in the PEB world?
Plenty. Where would you like to start?

[Harveyp]

Plenty. Where would you like to start?


At the Beginning preferably.

[Hectorplains]

What has been happening in the PEB world?

Be careful or you'll soon be commanded to read the PEB thread from the beginning...

[Harveyp]

Be careful or you'll soon be commanded to read the PEB thread from the beginning...

I'm booking my 4 weeks annual leave now :t_up:

[Mr Tommy]

Were you referred to the urologist by a physician, doctor, GP?
This would be normal procedure for most people. This is Primary Care at the first contact through the physician.
Cxbladder Triage is for use by Primary Caregivers before referral to a urologist. A negative result would then eliminate the tying up of urologists, theatres and serious amounts of equipment and money in Secondary Care for the same result. This in turn reduces the amount of time the unfortunate people who have a positive result will have to wait for cystoscopy. Eliminates a few possible side effects of cystoscopy as well. Erectile dysfunction and infections down there just add to the treatment required in the long run besides being decidedly uncomfortable.

Went to GP who referred me to urologist. Had pink urine (oneoff event so far) but blood test also showed high PSA. I think GP was going down prostate path, urologist was covering all options.

[winner69]

Went to GP who referred me to urologist. Had pink urine (oneoff event so far) but blood test also showed high PSA. I think GP was going down prostate path, urologist was covering all options.

Told you not too eat all those beetroot

Glad all sorted now.

[skid]

Ah, the PEB thread, always good for a conspiracy theory.

So the lack of traction in the US is down to evil laboratories and urologists on the take...

Just something to take into consideration Hector--(unless you think the medical business in the USA is a level playing field.)

The kick backs are just a side bar and of course are not common practice for all labs--but it does happen--there are plenty of news items if your skeptical--just google.

The ACLA is a very big outfit in the US if your doubting their importance--its hard to know if cutting them out of the equation would influence decisions,but many things are interconnected in the US medical industry.---Its a country where things often work as a result of lobbying. (the main point)

sometimes the whole system over there seems like a giant conspiracy theory.

Where else would the vice president (Dick Cheney),who was on the board of a company that builds military bases (Halliburton)in foreign countries ,be in on decisions about going to war.

[Minerbarejet]

Went to GP who referred me to urologist. Had pink urine (oneoff event so far) but blood test also showed high PSA. I think GP was going down prostate path, urologist was covering all options.
What impressed me about your original post was the way the urologist accepted the cxbladder test result without further ado if that was indeed the case.

[Mr Tommy]

What impressed me about your original post was the way the urologist accepted the cxbladder test result without further ado if that was indeed the case.

No he made me get an MRI as well. I think they were looking mainly at prostate but wanted to check bladder as well just to rule it out, and the cxbladder was sufficient for that

[Carpenterjoe]

A little more info on the Canterbury deal,

http://m.nzdoctor.co.nz//in-print/2016/march-2016/30-march/canterbury-moves-to-new-tool-in-bladder-cancer.aspx

[When the bass drops]

A little more info on the Canterbury deal,

http://m.nzdoctor.co.nz//in-print/2016/march-2016/30-march/canterbury-moves-to-new-tool-in-bladder-cancer.aspx

CJ, you need to be a paying subscriber to read these. Are you able to provide a better link or explain the jist?

[Markymarknz]

CJ, you need to be a paying subscriber to read these. Are you able to provide a better link or explain the jist?

Google "canterbury-moves-to-new-tool-in-bladder-cancer" then click on top link, seems to work fine for me by doing that...

[When the bass drops]

Google "canterbury-moves-to-new-tool-in-bladder-cancer" then click on top link, seems to work fine for me by doing that...

Thanks. Yes, that works.

[Minerbarejet]

Here you are, saves a lot of phaffing about.

Canterbury DHB has entered into a 12-month agreement with cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge Diagnostics Ltd to use its Cxbladder technology, a diagnostic tool that checks urine samples in evaluation of haema*turia (blood in the urine).

The technology may eventu*ally replace the long-established use of cytology to assess urine samples for bladder cancer, Canterbury DHB general manag*er planning and funding, Carolyn Gullery says.


Whether Cxbladder will for*mally replace cytology will de*pend on the 12-month trial and conclusions of an audit of the initial 200 to 500 tests once the system is introduced on 1 April.


Clinical adviser to Canterbury DHB’s planning and funding team, Graham McGeoch, says the introduction of the new technology will not result in a big change for general practic*es. GPs will have to request the new test alongside the other tests they have previously always requested.


As happens now, patients’ urine samples will be collected by laboratory collection centres. In rural areas, practices will be sent a special sample kit for nurses to use; samples will then be couri*ered to Pacific Edge’s laboratory in Dunedin for analysis.


“The biggest change is that this will enable more accurate and prompt diagnosis for peo*ple with bladder cancer,” Dr McGeoch says.


Pacific Edge commercial di*rector Brent Pownall considers Cxbladder a powerful tool for GPs because of its high sensi*tivity. Mr Pownall says this will better assist GPs in deciding whether or not to refer patients for specialist assessment.


Ms Gullery says the move is consistent with the DHB’s strategy to deliver more care in the community, closer to where people live.


Clinical trials have proven Cxbladder is superior to cytolo*gy and Ms Gullery expects more accurate testing will result in few*er patients having to go to hospital for cys*toscopy.


B e c a u s e t h e Cxbladder test is high*ly sensitive, it can rule out the presence of bladder cancer and do away with the need for a cystoscopy – where a specialist examines the lining of the blad*der and urethra – which is cur*rently carried out if there is un*certainty following the cytology.


“This is just absolutely consistent with the direction of travel at Canterbury DHB,” Ms Gullery says. “If we don’t have to send someone to hospital, why would we?”


The technology has the potential to lower overall costs in eval*uating haematuria and detecting blad*der cancer, she says.


“Accessing the Cxbladder technolo*gy is not cheap, but it is still less expensive overall and better for the patient. You get a rapid turnaround of results and they don’t have to have a proce*dure," Ms Gullery adds


Pacific Edge is an NZX-listed company developing cancer di*agnostic and prognostic products for better detection and manage*ment of cancer. Its initial focus has been on the US because of the size of the market, but eventually the company hopes Cxbladder will have a place in New Zealand as a DHB-funded pathology tool.


Christchurch urologist Peter Davidson says local urologists have been involved in evaluat*ing the Cxbladder products for some time, and they support its adoption.


MidCentral DHB began using Cxbladder in 2013, and urolo*gists in the Bay of Plenty and Lakes DHB regions began using it a year later.

[Snow Leopard]

Google "canterbury-moves-to-new-tool-in-bladder-cancer" then click on top link, seems to work fine for me by doing that...

"Whether Cxbladder will formally replace cytology will depend on the 12-month trial and conclusions of an audit of the initial 200 to 500 tests once the system is introduced on 1 April"

I did a guestimate that they would do about 2500 tests over the year (I think based on everybody with micro and macro hematuria) and there would be approximately 100 bladder cancers amongst them).

I always thought 200 tests was rather low to make any form of decision on.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[When the bass drops]

Good news. Funny how the last 2 announcements are not price sensitive but the share price jumps.

On that, you could put any announcement out there and the market may react to it, whether you class as price sensitive or otherwise. A typical disclosure to the NZX may, rightly or wrongly, cause the price to jump 5 cents in that day. The market is a funny old thing.

[When the bass drops]

On that, you could put any announcement out there and the market may react to it, whether you class as price sensitive or otherwise. A typical disclosure to the NZX may, rightly or wrongly, cause the price to jump 5 cents in that day. The market is a funny old thing.

They could announce a picture of a giraffe or Pee Wee Herman and the market may react materially. You just don't know.

[Minerbarejet]

PI-LBA07

THE DEVELOPMENT AND CLINICAL VALIDATION OF A HIGH


SENSITIVITY URINE BIOMARKER TEST FOR THE


DETERMINATION OF RECURRENCE IN UROTHELIAL


CARCINOMA PATIENTS











Yair Lotan*, Dallas, TX; Jay Raman, Hershey, PA; Shahrokh Shariat,


Vienna, Austria; Laimonis Kavalieris, Dunedin, New Zealand;


Chris Frampton, Christchurch, New Zealand; Henry Crist, Hershey, PA;


Elsie Jacobson, Jimmie Suttie, David Darling, Dunedin, New Zealand;


Scott Asroff, Mount Laurel, NJ; Doug Scherr, New York, NY;


George Adams, Birmingham, AL; Evan Goldfischer, Poughkeepsie, NY;


Jeffrey Thill, Orlando, FL; Joseph Williams, Meridian, ID; Joshua Stein,


New Britain, CT; Paul O’Sullivan, Dunedin, New Zealand














INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: To develop a high


sensitivity, urine based, gene expression test for the determination of


recurrence of Urothelial Carcinoma (UC) and to assess the performance


of this test for the segregation of patients with a low probability of


recurrence from those requiring further investigation.


METHODS: 1093 samples were collected from 803 patients prospectively


recruited at 11 community and tertiary centres the United States.


Voided urine samples were collected pre-cystoscopy for urine dipstick,


NMP22 Bladderchek, NMP22 ELISA, urine cytology and Cxbladder. Local


cytology and FISH were also collected where available.


Patients were partitioned into either a training or validation set based on


demographic and risk factors. The training set (n¼354 patients) was used


to develop a novel algorithm (Cxbladder Monitor) encompassing gene


expression data and previous tumour occurrence information. Cxbladder


Monitor was validated using an independent validation set (n¼449 patients).


Final model parameters were derived on all data and bootstrap


methods used to estimate 95% CIs and performance characteristics.


RESULTS: Incidence of confirmed UC within the recruited population


was 11%. Confirmed tumour stage was as follows : 64% Ta, 14% T1,


22% Tis. Grade was confirmed as 50% low grade and PUMLMP and 50%


high grade disease. Final model Cxbladder Monitor exhibited a sensitivity of


93% (95% CI 82, 97), outperforming all direct comparator tests and locally


obtained FISH results, across all stages and grades of tumour; see table 1.


Cxbladder Monitor demonstrated an NPV of 97% (95% CI: 93, 98).





CONCLUSIONS: Cxbladder Monitor has been developed in


response to the limitations of current urine based tests, and the unmet


clinical need for a high sensitivity, high NPV test to enhance the clinical


investigation of recurrent UC. Cxbladder Monitor demonstrated potential


to rule out those patients with a low risk of having recurrent disease and


therefore to reduce cystoscopy burden on patients undergoing routine


investigation. Use of Cxbladder Monitor could reduce the number of


invasive procedures required for the evaluation of recurrent UC.

[Snow Leopard]

PI-LBA07....

More validation?

Link to source, miner, please.

We need to verify this for ourselves.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[When the bass drops]

More validation?

Link to source, miner, please.

We need to verify this for ourselves.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

http://www.jurology.com/article/S0022-5347(16)03675-2/fulltext

[Snow Leopard]

http://www.jurology.com/article/S0022-5347(16)03675-2/fulltext

Thanks.

Just need to get to the full article next....

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Leftfield]

Another step.....

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/233189.pdf

Nice to learn CXBladder to be presented at the May 2016 Annual Conf of American Urological Assn where 16,000 urologists are likely to attend!

Otherwise not much new in the update?

[trader_jackson]

Another step.....

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/233189.pdf

Nice to learn CXBladder to be presented at the May 2016 Annual Conf of American Urological Assn where 16,000 urologists are likely to attend!

Otherwise not much new in the update?

Just confirming what long term investors already know: that things are proceeding well. No red flags being raised.

[winner69]

Things looking up ....and good signs

David has a tie on and shirt tucked in

[Snow Leopard]

... No red flags being raised.

That is what the [end of year] accounts are for :p

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Just confirming what long term investors already know: that things are proceeding well. No red flags being raised.
No white ones either.:)

[OldGuy]

what? No updates on lab throughput??

[Biscuit]

Thanks.

Just need to get to the full article next....

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

It's not a journal article, just a conference talk abstract so not necessarily any new info

[Minerbarejet]

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news-and-media/news/investor-update-for-april-2016/

http://www.jurology.com/article/S0022-5347(16)03675-2/fulltext

[Minerbarejet]

If this link doesnt work try the one on CDY ASX
https://youtu.be/UKubC1rFl7U

RedChip delivers concrete, measurable results for its clients through its extensive global network of institutional and retail stock brokers, RIA's, family offices, investment banks, hedge funds, and accredited investor groups.

Our unique platform combines traditional investor relations services with multi-media marketing. Our weekly TV show, the RedChip Money Report™, airs in 200 million homes in over 50 countries on Bloomberg Europe, Bloomberg Asia and Direct TV and Dish TV. The show features interviews with CEOs of public and private companies, analysts, portfolio managers and other industry experts. Our targeted retail and institutional digital media platform reaches hundreds of thousands of investors worldwide. Our quarterly Global Online CEO Conference, weekly small-cap newsletter and social media platform engages hundreds of thousands of investors.





PEB gets a plug in this interview as well.
Its down the track a bit.

[NT001]

It's not a journal article, just a conference talk abstract so not necessarily any new info

Technically that's true, it's probably not recognised as a refereed journal, but if you're going to get an article like that published anywhere, the Journal of Urology is the place you'd want it to appear. Nothing would get published in that Journal that included conclusions in highly approving terms unless the journal's editorial board could be sure it had real authority behind it and would stand up. Just think what a chorus of criticism and ridicule there would be from certain contributors on this forum if the article came up with anything other than a glowing endorsement.

I see this as a very definite step forward, likely to influence thinking in some of the major organisations whose support PEB needs.

The JoU describes itself thus:

"The Official Journal of the American Urological Association (AUA), and the most widely read and highly cited journal in the field, The Journal of Urology® brings solid coverage of the clinically relevant content needed to stay at the forefront of the dynamic field of urology. This premier journal presents investigative studies on critical areas of research and practice, survey articles providing short condensations of the best and most important urology literature worldwide, and practice-oriented reports on significant clinical observations."

[Minerbarejet]

Big volume this morning, well for PEB it is.

[When the bass drops]

Big volume this morning, well for PEB it is.

Was that a sell or a buy?? Average trade price thus far today is a shade above 60c, against current market of 63c (10.53am).

[Minerbarejet]

Was that a sell or a buy?? Average trade price thus far today is a shade above 60c, against current market of 63c (10.53am).
Probably a bit of both,:)
either that or a transfer.

[When the bass drops]

Probably a bit of both,:)
either that or a transfer.

It's probably SALT. They had to disclose today.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/280924

Salt picked up anther 4.5m shares, clearly expecting bigger things... good (but not surprising to me) to see one of quite a few institutions still in it for the long run

[OldGuy]

How did their last investment in this stock, go?

[When the bass drops]

How did their last investment in this stock, go?

If any investor is in the stock for the long run, the jury is out. Many of the long-run investors have a genuine desire to support the biotech industry in the case of PEB.

If investors are in it for short term gains, and react emotionally when it falls (thus selling), then their investment approach is poor. Typical of 'some' professional investors who work with many small holds.

[trader_jackson]

Still holding 5 or so percent above last years rights issue price, so not to much sorrow for Salt, the people I do feel sorry for are the little guys that hit the panic sell button at 35 cents that one dreadful summer's day last year... if they held on for a couple more months their investment would have been worth almost twice as much :(

Onward and Upward! Results around 1 month away :t_up:

[Carpenterjoe]

I think this is a new sales Video,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUWxw5ywP-c

[OldGuy]

they should have been using stuff like this years ago. Too little, too late. Run while you can.

[trader_jackson]

Nice video... uploaded only a couple days ago as well...

https://www.facebook.com/Cxbladder

...May be of interest

[Carpenterjoe]

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/company/quality-assurance/

New website?

[Minerbarejet]

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/company/quality-assurance/

New website?
Yes, thats much better.

[Leftfield]

While this latest release is not exactly new news, it is good to see that this site seems to have developed considerably since I last looked.


PACIFIC EDGE COLLABORATES ON LAUNCH OF PATIENT COMMUNITY SITE
Bladdercancer.me patient community goes live for Bladder Cancer Awareness Month
Hershey, PA and Dunedin, NZ (9 May 2016): Cancer diagnostics company, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX:PEB), is proud to announce the official launch of bladdercancer.me, an online bladder cancer patient community which provides support, tools and information for patients, their families and care-givers. The site’s launch has been timed to coincide with Bladder Cancer Awareness Month in the United States of America.
Bladdercancer.me has been developed by digital health experts, Melon Health, in collaboration with a group of New Zealand and Australian companies, including Pacific Edge. It is unique in the way it helps patients self-manage their journey.
Pacific Edge is proud to be a major supporter of the site, which aims to “provide a place where patients, their families and care-givers can find emotional support, social connections, self-management tools and access to trustworthy resources and information.”

https://bladdercancer.me

[When the bass drops]

Obviously this update will be very important. https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/282090

What I would like to see is the publishing of actual test numbers, however I expect they won't be made available until sometime in 2017. Any more positive progress on the US strategy, no matter how small, will be good. Not expecting a great report this time around, but certainly not a bad one.

[Schrodinger]

Obviously this update will be very important. https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/282090

What I would like to see is the publishing of actual test numbers, however I expect they won't be made available until sometime in 2017. Any more positive progress on the US strategy, no matter how small, will be good. Not expecting a great report this time around, but certainly not a bad one.

Have we past the half way mark of the $100M revenue prediction?

[Minerbarejet]

Have we past the half way mark of the $100M revenue prediction?How would we know?. We only have 1 full years results available and the second hasnt been spotted yet.

[skid]

How would we know?. We only have 1 full years results available and the second hasnt been spotted yet.

Even though PEB announcements say otherwise

also ,wasnt there something about Kaiser something --It was so long ago I cant remember exactly

[Minerbarejet]

Even though PEB announcements say otherwise

also ,wasnt there something about Kaiser something --It was so long ago I cant remember exactlyFinancial year 2014 was not a complete, ie: full year of trading in the US.
PEB started in the States in July of 2013 which is part of FY 2014.
As a result Financial Year 2015 is the only guide we have until the end of this month when 2016 will become available.
This will make 2 out of 5 in the famous 5 full years of trading in the US as far as I can see.
Would be interested to see how it can be otherwise.
A full year can not be represented by 9 months of unpaid user programs and startup procedural processes. The first payment for a test didnt arrive until April of 2014.
Kaiser Permanente is expected to finish evaluating triage this year.
Expecting an update on the AUA plenary with monitor shortly with a possible peer reviewed publication.

[Carpenterjoe]

https://twitter.com/drhwoo?lang=en

Nice little tweet on the 10th of May from one DR Henry Woo re Cx Monitor,

[cammo]

Now is that guy is going to specify cxbladder for the next haematuria customer that walks into his practice? I'm thinking I'll be topping up now after sitting quietly for past 4 years ...this is more valuable than the amost 1000 pages of drivel I have read. Unless anybody can connect him to peb's payroll or kickback register ?

[Bing]

My impression is that momentum is starting to build for cxBladder. I find it telling that the trial for cxMonitor was done in the Sates and not by the usual crowd in NZ.

[OldGuy]

You know things are critical when you value one tweet so highly. I mean, really?

[When the bass drops]

You know things are critical when you value one tweet so highly. I mean, really?

That's not the way I see it. Medical professional awareness of cxbladder was always going to be a drip feed initially. Nothing wrong with merely pointing out these things.

[Lewylewylewy]

I never understand people lambasting other comments on this site. If someone shares something it's either out of the good of their heart or some misguided idea that they can somehow ramp the SP.

Ignore the ramping, shoot the breeze, research anything that you find interesting and be happy. If you think something's irrelevant, and you're smart, sit back and take it as an opportunity to see what other people are thinking and see if it affects your opinion of the general sentiment.

Personally, to think it's worthwhile hearing what the odd medical professional thinks... Contributes towards my perception of customer sentiment, which is important for me.

[cammo]

To do these things requires a paradigm change. You are essentially trying to tell someone that a test on their pee is going to tell them more than taking a sample internally. Doctors are essentially human scientists and you are trying to retrain a generation of them that have been told since day dot that getting a sample out tells you everything. Now we're telling them that that is not the case. It's hard to change the game but when it changes.....so seeing a US doctor who tweets about it ...that's grass roots rugby change happenin......

[Minerbarejet]

Not quite Cammo.
Think Dr Woo might be in Australia and is into the prostate side of things.
Seems suitably impressed though and will spin the good word to his colleagues no doubt.
You are right about a paradigm change but the whole concept of Cxbladder Monitor is about attending to all those that have been diagnosed and had surgery already.
This includes all those still surviving from the last few years of endless cystoscopies which is the current method of treatment.
So its not about finding new patients with Detect, there are a whole lot of currently existing bladder cancer patients worldwide who require ongoing monitoring until either cleared completely or they depart the planet.
The other additional factor is that any patient discovered to have bladder cancer with the help of cxbladder detect, is operated on and survives the operation is most likely to be monitored by cxbladder as well.

[cammo]

True mbj. He was looking at detect etc, but regardless; "specifying specialists" are being exposed to the product range and by being told "it's the platinum standard, not gold", hopefully encouraged to supply it to their patients pre and post surgery. Indeed, once "fixed", continual sales of monitor etc will free said urogenital surgeon up for more surgeries, by enabling him to sell pee sticks to his recent patients rather than having to taje regular biopsies. He might be " specialising" in prostates, but he has started as a urogenital surgeon first doesn't he? Post of a customer having received the marketing shows that PEB are getting their message out to where it needs to go.
Hopefully the cdhb testing results are positive, then it spreads to other hospitals. Considering its doctors pretty much span the Commonwealth in there, news should spread fast if they go ahead with cx in there.

[Minerbarejet]

Another aspect that you have brought up, Cammo, is the freeing up of surgeons.
I think Monitor will have a considerable effect on waiting times for those actually needing surgery.
With reduced waiting times more patients will survive longer as one of the keys to all this is early intervention. More patients surviving will require more and more monitoring.
On top of all that if the waiting list for BC operations became non existent this would free up surgeons for other areas that may have waiting lists. This would go a long way towards improving the current situation. It will also free up funding for other unrelated healthcare problems by reducing the number of unnecessary cystoscopies.

[Grunter]

To do these things requires a paradigm change. You are essentially trying to tell someone that a test on their pee is going to tell them more than taking a sample internally. Doctors are essentially human scientists and you are trying to retrain a generation of them that have been told since day dot that getting a sample out tells you everything. Now we're telling them that that is not the case. It's hard to change the game but when it changes.....so seeing a US doctor who tweets about it ...that's grass roots rugby change happenin......

The whole medical profession is moving from invasive to non-invasive techniques wherever possible. I don't think the shift is at all hard. You look at the use of MRI or CT instead of exploratory surgery and see that medicine actually welcomes any opportunity to move to a non-invasive way of diagnosing conditions. Invasive techniques are seen more and more as a last resort, which is why is strongly believe that PEB has the potential to become something quite extraordinary.

[Leftfield]

Great News...... a big sample too. Should help PEB considerably. Well done PEB!

GENERAL: PEB: PACIFIC EDGE PRESENTS POSITIVE CXBLADDER MONITOR(TM) RESULTS

Results Outperform Currently Available Tests for Monitoring Recurrent
Urothelial Carcinoma
Abstract Selected for Plenary Session at AUA 2016

DUNEDIN, New Zealand and HERSHEY, Pa., May 16, 2016

Cancer diagnostics company, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX:PEB), announced today
the presentation of positive results from a prospective multicenter, blinded
study of Cxbladder Monitor(TM), the Company's new urine-based gene expression
test for the investigation of urothelial carcinoma (UC) in patients
presenting for monitoring of recurrent disease.

The abstract #745, titled, "The Development and Clinical Validation of a High
Sensitivity Urine biomarker test for the Determination of Recurrence in
Urothelial Carcinoma Patients," was presented by Yair Lotan, M.D., of the
University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas, in a plenary
session at the American Urological Association (AUA) 2016 conference in San
Diego, CA.

The study was designed to develop, optimise and validate performance
characteristics of Cxbladder Monitor and compare them to those of existing
urine detection tests used in the evaluation and monitoring of patients for
recurrence of the UC.

Results presented at the plenary session demonstrate that Cxbladder Monitor
is an effective rule out test with a sensitivity of 93% and a negative
predictive value of 97%, significantly outperforming all other existing
urine-based tests evaluated across all stages and grades of tumor.

The prospective, blinded clinical study was conducted across 11 clinical
sites across the United States. 1117 samples were collected from a large
representative population of 803 patients presenting for the investigation of
recurrent UC. Patients in the study were then monitored for either six
months or a maximum of three cystoscopic evaluations, the gold standard for
diagnosing recurrent UC.

[crabs]

yes the good news stories have begun again........ signalling another dismal sales and revenue report must be close.

[pierre]

yes the good news stories have begun again........ signalling another dismal sales and revenue report must be close.

The positive announcement is definitely grist to the mill for the cynics among us. I'm surprised someone hasn't suggested that PEB paid the AUA a great deal of cash to time their conference specifically to coincide with the impending release of their FY16 financials.

You may be correct that a dismal report is pending but nobody knows, so it's probably best to wait for the announcement rather than generate another round of PEB bashing. It's been relatively peaceful on this thread for a while - be nice if we could keep it that way and just enjoy another little success for the company.

[When the bass drops]

The positive announcement is definitely grist to the mill for the cynics among us. I'm surprised someone hasn't suggested that PEB paid the AUA a great deal of cash to time their conference specifically to coincide with the impending release of their FY16 financials.

You may be correct that a dismal report is pending but nobody knows, so it's probably best to wait for the announcement rather than generate another round of PEB bashing. It's been relatively peaceful on this thread for a while - be nice if we could keep it that way and just enjoy another little success for the company.

It won't be a great report, as we can all agree, but I don't think it will be a step backwards either. Picking some milestone ticks late in 2016/2017 year but more likely within 2017/2018. It's hard to say.

[pak]

My pick is the revenue will keep increasing. My worry though is the rate of cash burn without a major announcement with VA or medicare to back it up.

[Minerbarejet]

My pick is the revenue will keep increasing. My worry though is the rate of cash burn without a major announcement with VA or medicare to back it up.
VA is done and dusted, pak.
Did you mean KP perhaps?
Medicare would be a major announcement in its own right.
As would Kaiser Permanente.

[crabs]

The positive announcement is definitely grist to the mill for the cynics among us. I'm surprised someone hasn't suggested that PEB paid the AUA a great deal of cash to time their conference specifically to coincide with the impending release of their FY16 financials.

You may be correct that a dismal report is pending but nobody knows, so it's probably best to wait for the announcement rather than generate another round of PEB bashing. It's been relatively peaceful on this thread for a while - be nice if we could keep it that way and just enjoy another little success for the company.
what do you mean no body knows.....I would have thought to those with their eyes wide open I was merely stating the obvious.
What has actually changed in this companies direction in the last 6-9 months to indicate a change to the dismal sales pattern that is about as far off their continually stated $100m in 5 years sales trajectory as you can possibly get.
It will be very interesting to see how fast the cash burn is as well.

[pierre]

what do you mean no body knows.....I would have thought to those with their eyes wide open I was merely stating the obvious.
What has actually changed in this companies direction in the last 6-9 months to indicate a change to the dismal sales pattern that is about as far off their continually stated $100m in 5 years sales trajectory as you can possibly get.
It will be very interesting to see how fast the cash burn is as well.

I was responding to your opinion that "another dismal sales and revenue report must be close". I don't know if that is the case and suggest that nobody else knows either (other than the board and management of PEB of course).

Just meant that we will all have to wait and see when the announcement is made and "dismal" or not - like beauty - will be in the eye of the beholder.

[crabs]

I was responding to your opinion that "another dismal sales and revenue report must be close". I don't know if that is the case and suggest that nobody else knows either (other than the board and management of PEB of course).

Just meant that we will all have to wait and see when the announcement is made and "dismal" or not - like beauty - will be in the eye of the beholder.
thanks for your reply
just a quick question to you....do you think anything has changed in this company in the last 6-9 months to indicate the coming result will show a material change to the sales trajectory.

[skid]

I think we are back to where we have been before--we are on one side of the cliff with a good product(Its a good product,no denying)--....and on the other side of the cliff is a market where its possible to sell lots of product and make good money...but of course the trick is to get across the abyss and over to the making money side.

Its been peaceful Pierre, because nothing was happening --everyone got bored and left--but now we have a few teasers to get everyone going again.

Medicare would certainly help,no doubt about it (and the sloufs over at Kaiser as well) but although it would get everyone excited and boost the SP ,it is still no guarantee of big sales--but Dang ...you guys need a break,so heres hoping.

[When the bass drops]

I think we are back to where we have been before--we are on one side of the cliff with a good product(Its a good product,no denying)--....and on the other side of the cliff is a market where its possible to sell lots of product and make good money...but of course the trick is to get across the abyss and over to the making money side.

Its been peaceful Pierre, because nothing was happening --everyone got bored and left--but now we have a few teasers to get everyone going again.

Medicare would certainly help,no doubt about it (and the sloufs over at Kaiser as well) but although it would get everyone excited and boost the SP ,it is still no guarantee of big sales--but Dang ...you guys need a break,so heres hoping.

Thanks for your view skid. Time will tell whether we are right or wrong I suppose. By the way, where has Balance been lately? Would be keen to hear his view on today's announcement.

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for your view skid. Time will tell whether we are right or wrong I suppose. By the way, where has Balance been lately? Would be keen to hear his view on today's announcement.Just go back and read the thread - you will find most of his later views will fit todays quite easily. Whether they are right or not remains to be seen. Personally I would like his earlier announcement they could be 5 bucks to be correct.

[nextbigthing]

By the way, where has Balance been lately? Would be keen to hear his view on today's announcement.

Please pay attention When the bass drops :) He's right here.


yes the good news stories have begun again........ signalling another dismal sales and revenue report must be close.

[Dentie]

Please pay attention When the bass drops :) He's right here.

No - just one of his/her converted disciples.

[davflaws]

Sure sounded like the master to me. Positively equilibrious!

[pierre]

thanks for your reply
just a quick question to you....do you think anything has changed in this company in the last 6-9 months to indicate the coming result will show a material change to the sales trajectory.
I certainly hope so but we will have to wait until May 26 to find out. I don't imagine the PEB sales team have been sitting on their hands for the past six months but will the result be dismal or bright - don't know.

[Balance]

I certainly hope so but we will have to wait until May 26 to find out. I don't imagine the PEB sales team have been sitting on their hands for the past six months but will the result be dismal or bright - don't know.

For sure they have been beavering away in the background - just as they have in the last 2, 5 and 10 years. Actually means bugger all - the only thing that matters now is results, and quantifiable results.

One suspects PEB realizes that too now - yesterday's release of 'good' news saw the market gave a collective yawn.

So will PEB deliver or is it a case of more bluff and bluster about numbers being commercially sensitive?

Well, let's hope PEB the best - I sincerely mean it when I wrote that NZ needs companies like PEB to succeed. We need and must have successful flagship biotech and biomedical companies which shine like beacons of inspirations and aspirations for the younger generations coming through.

[skid]

Thanks for your view skid. Time will tell whether we are right or wrong I suppose. By the way, where has Balance been lately? Would be keen to hear his view on today's announcement.

I suspect the report will be more of the same and everyone will interpret as to how they view PEB.
I would venture to say that a large dose of faith will still have to be thrown in the mix.

In terms of management..Every outfit handles things differently,but if you want to see some actual communication ,go have a look on the AIR thread--Thats no guarantee the share itself will rocket(as AIR has clearly shown) but it is refreshing to get feedback.

One of the biggest complaints about PEB is the feeling that SH are kept pretty much in the dark and must rely solely on the product ,for the most part.

Miner -you can spin the 100mil any way you want, but when I read on Aug13 2013.......

Dunedin-based cancer diagnostic company Pacific Edge could possibly break even this financial year, but its board is boldly predicting United States sales of $100 million in five years. Quote

I start counting then..and I would think any reasonable person ,excited about this new company would have done the same,and invested accordingly.

They obviously didnt break even--so draw your own conclusions on the 100mil

Of course that doesnt mean they wont be successful as a going concern--But it could still be a long time coming--just as its been a long time since that article.


PS-WTBD--How the heck would I know where Balance has been? If your going on a fishing trip ,I can categorically state I also dont know where Mac-Sparky-Snapity-Hancocks and Moosie have been.
It would however be very interesting to have a reunion:ohmy:

[When the bass drops]

Your asking me??

No its all good. Balance is back :)

[Harvey Specter]

For sure they have been beavering away in the background - just as they have in the last 2, 5 and 10 years. Actually means bugger all - the only thing that matters now is results, and quantifiable results.Agree with all that you said. The promise of sales is no longer enough. We have taken the bait before but that never eventuated.

And we do need companies like this to be successful. We can all be diary farmers and tourism operators. We need a full diversified mix of successful businesses in this country.

[Schrodinger]

Agree with all that you said. The promise of sales is no longer enough. We have taken the bait before but that never eventuated.

And we do need companies like this to be successful. We can all be diary farmers and tourism operators. We need a full diversified mix of successful businesses in this country.

What would be an "acceptable" number? I think shareholders should do a quick calculation to see if they will actually run out of cash again....Sales too low and they will be asking for more money.

[dagoldtoof]

well still well in the green with PEB purchase ....But accept the fact this is a long term investment, expect similiar figures as last report but 17/18 to show improved results...

[OldGuy]

Anything less than $10 million sales would have to indicate a significant risk of missing the $100m target IMHO

[crabs]

well still well in the green with PEB purchase ....But accept the fact this is a long term investment, expect similiar figures as last report but 17/18 to show improved results...
I hope you are wrong as the market will not like that similar sales figures.
I think the markets would like to see $7-8m
I think they are going to get $4m-5m and hopefully some realism comments from management about how pie in the sky $100m in 5 years is.

[Balance]

I hope you are wrong as the market will not like that similar sales figures.
I think the markets would like to see $7-8m in 6 monthly sales revenue.
I think they are going to get $4m-5m and hopefully some realism comments from management about how pie in the sky $100m in 5 years is.

Without real sales traction, PEB is gone burger - the underwriters ended up with a big chunk of stock last capital raising and there will be no takers for the next capital raising unless the sp is $1.00 and above.

[winner69]

Hope they remember to put some numbers on the y-axis of the pretty charts this time around

[crabs]

Without real sales traction, PEB is gone burger - the underwriters ended up with a big chunk of stock last capital raising and there will be no takers for the next capital raising unless the sp is $1.00 and above.
Is this why management continue with the $100m in five years rhetoric, fake it till you make it.
Balance what figure do you consider would show real sales traction for this coming report.
Agree with you about sales traction is needed to be shown for any future cap raise.

[Snow Leopard]

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-PEB/NZX-PEB-Future3.png

It has been pointed out to me a little error in that I put some of the Sep-15 values in the Mar-15 slot (the shame of it:blush:).

So here is the amended version.

Now PEB have more head room on cash in the bank.

Apparently this will become the official projection against which future company performance will be judged. :D


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

From the definitive financial forecast sheet as derived from the work of the greatest minds on the forum (i.e tj, w69, minerbarejet and, of course, me).

From the above, and doing the addition for you we are expecting for FY16:
Revenue: $4.378;
Loss: $13.640;
Cash in the bank: $26.091.

Better numbers is success, Worse numbers is failure.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[trader_jackson]

Well i could come out with my usual periodic waffle, but I thought I tonight I would cut straight to the point...

Yes, we can all cherry pick the numbers and come out with outrageous statements like "$256m of new capital every year to generate the $100m of sales!" but i decided to compare the numbers, the best way numbers year on year should be compared: by looking at the percentages of increase between them. Obviously the key thing here is to make sure sales is increasing more than expenses, and, well it looks pretty good to me..

We could point say 'the momentum is gone', but considering they have yet to sign any major contracts what so ever, and still sales are increasing more than expenses (% wise) just imagine if they do happen to get a biggy (or any..)? If this happens, it is an incredibly scalable product (as we should all know by now..), so they don't suddenly have to poor millions and millions of dollars in to producing a couple more tests: the foundation has been laid... therefore cost per test dramatically decreases, while profit dramatically increases.

They now have 16 sales executives who are all working flat out to get contracts together (one would hope)... The next 12-24 months for PEB will be defining for the company.

It is far from a sure bet, but even if 15 of those executives failed to do anything significant for the next year (this is highly unlikely but given the number of pessimists on this thread I thought I would have a go and throwing an outlandish statement out...), but 1 happened to get a 'biggy' (ignoring the other 2 still to be hired), PEB could still hit the $100m target... anyway I'll let my breif numbers do the talking from here (I have colour coded it to make it easier to compare :t_up:)

PLEASE NOTE:
- I might have stuffed the numbers up (please correct me if I have...)
- They are comparing half year (6 months to September 14) would be nice if someone did the same for full year..?

"Financial rewards follow accomplishment, they don't precede it." - Harry F. Banks
7746

I look forward to updating my analysis 6 months on from the above :t_up:

[dagoldtoof]

Awating results from Canterbury DHB two hundred trial test about Oct/Nov.......If other DHBs get on board PEB will grow slowly like a mushroom....So much impatience...

[skid]

I look forward to updating my analysis 6 months on from the above :t_up:

I agree--they need contracts

I disagree--Percentages make far more difference when the numbers are big (Think of what needs to be ivolved to achieve 50% of $50,000,000 as opposed to 500% of $5,000---they may be able to do the latter with no contracts.

[Xerof]

It must be another reporting time - snapiti and balance are clearing their throats again. the crayfish is now a crab lol

[Minerbarejet]

It must be another reporting time - snapiti and balance are clearing their throats again. the crayfish is now a crab lolWell at least we have gone from swimming backwards to swimming sideways.

[Leftfield]

Vote of confidence?

Summary for Westpac Banking Corporation (including the related bodies
corporate specified in the Annexure)

For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 29,592,119
(b) total in class: 376,543,478
(c) total percentage held in class: 7.86%

For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 23,830,213
(b) total in class: 376,543,478
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.33%

[crabs]

Vote of confidence?

Summary for Westpac Banking Corporation (including the related bodies
corporate specified in the Annexure)

For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 29,592,119
(b) total in class: 376,543,478
(c) total percentage held in class: 7.86%

For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 23,830,213
(b) total in class: 376,543,478
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.33%
westpac kiwi saver fund currently ranks 17th out of 20
but would explain who is propping up the shares.

[Xerof]

Vote of confidence?

Summary for Westpac Banking Corporation (including the related bodies
corporate specified in the Annexure)

For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 29,592,119
(b) total in class: 376,543,478
(c) total percentage held in class: 7.86%

For last disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 23,830,213
(b) total in class: 376,543,478
(c) total percentage held in class: 6.33%

If you read the announcement in full, i.e. last paragraph, you would see that it is primarily administrative changes within the various funds.

So who then IS 'propping up' the price? perhaps those who saw speculative value when it was under 40/50?

[Grunter]

westpac kiwi saver fund currently ranks 17th out of 20
but would explain who is propping up the shares.

Are you another member posting under a different name?

[nextbigthing]

So who then IS 'propping up' the price? perhaps those who saw speculative value when it was under 40/50?

I heard it's Balance.

[Leftfield]

I heard it's Balance.

Tee Hee

Whether 'propping up' is needed (or not) will be revealed 28 May. Going to be interesting. My prediction is that some people will be happy and some won't be.

[crabs]

If you read the announcement in full, i.e. last paragraph, you would see that it is primarily administrative changes within the various funds.

So who then IS 'propping up' the price? perhaps those who saw speculative value when it was under 40/50?
yes no doubt speculative buying under 40/50.....just how speculative will be revealed with the coming report.....lol

[trader_jackson]

westpac kiwi saver fund currently ranks 17th out of 20
but would explain who is propping up the shares.

Interesting you say this about kiwisaver: not sure if you have mistakenly posted in the wrong thread, or maybe would like to point out one particular ranking system of one particular fund from one particular source, or were trying to imply westpac is somehow determining PEB's stable share price (of late)... It got me thinking, lets have a look at a few facts about institutional ownership of PEB (again...)

Back to the PEB's "insto" register: (going of recent information I have tried my best to find)
- Westpac: 7.86% (increased holding disclosed on 19 May 2016)
- First NZ: 10.10% (increased holding disclosed on 9 November 2015)
- Devon: 6.42% (increased holding disclosed on 29 September 2015)
- Harbour Asset: 9.06% (increased holding disclosed on 8 July 2015)
- Salt: 8.17% (increased holding disclosed on 6 July 2015)
= over 40% of PEB held by institutions...

How much paper gains/losses each of these has made could be argued, however there seems to be 0 intention of selling, and more a hold and wait and see (along with me and several other holders in for the long run)... you can view it anyway you want, but it is clearly some sort of vote of confidence in PEB (also note the last time they disclosed a movement, all of them increased their holding)

(These are taken from the latest SSH notices, so I could be wrong and is always good to DYOR, although from the looks of it I'm not to sure how many other tech/unprofitable companies has such a diverse institution shareholder register, XRO maybe?, I suppose some of the above could be holding funds on behalf of clients as well, although I'm not entirely sure on how this works)

What is a coincidence, although probably unrelated (such as the comment you have made) is that Salt Funds Management, who increased their stake from 5.2% in mid 2014, to 8.2% in mid 2015, were last night named fund manager of the year.

[crabs]

Interesting you say this about kiwisaver: not sure if you have mistakenly posted in the wrong thread, or maybe would like to point out one particular ranking system of one particular fund from one particular source, or were trying to imply westpac is somehow determining PEB's stable share price (of late)... It got me thinking, lets have a look at a few facts about institutional ownership of PEB (again...)

Back to the PEB's "insto" register: (going of recent information I have tried my best to find)
- Westpac: 7.86% (increased holding disclosed on 19 May 2016)
- First NZ: 10.10% (increased holding disclosed on 9 November 2015)
- Devon: 6.42% (increased holding disclosed on 29 September 2015)
- Harbour Asset: 9.06% (increased holding disclosed on 8 July 2015)
- Salt: 8.17% (increased holding disclosed on 6 July 2015)
= over 40% of PEB held by institutions...

How much paper gains/losses each of these has made could be argued, however there seems to be 0 intention of selling, and more a hold and wait and see (along with me and several other holders in for the long run)... you can view it anyway you want, but it is clearly some sort of vote of confidence in PEB (also note the last time they disclosed a movement, all of them increased their holding)

(These are taken from the latest SSH notices, so I could be wrong and is always good to DYOR, although from the looks of it I'm not to sure how many other tech/unprofitable companies has such a diverse institution shareholder register, XRO maybe?, I suppose some of the above could be holding funds on behalf of clients as well, although I'm not entirely sure on how this works)

What is a coincidence, although probably unrelated (such as the comment you have made) is that Salt Funds Management, who increased their stake from 5.2% in mid 2014, to 8.2% in mid 2015, were last night named fund manager of the year.
congrats to salt funds management........ obviously to have achieved fund manager of the year their other investments must have performed much better than when they added to their PEB holdings via the rights issue mid last year at 61 cps.
Can't win them all I suppose....like most fund managers happy to spread the risk to find winners and losers.

[trader_jackson]

congrats to salt funds management........ obviously to have achieved fund manager of the year their other investments must have performed much better than when they added to their PEB holdings via the rights issue mid last year at 61 cps.
Can't win them all I suppose....like most fund managers happy to spread the risk to find winners and losers.

Yup, there are almost certainly other losers that they would have had to sell, and book a cash loss that is for sure... salvaging what cash they could, in order to load up on future winners ;)

Have a good evening everyone... 6 Days to go

[crabs]

Yup, there are almost certainly other losers that they would have had to sell, and book a cash loss that is for sure... salvaging what cash they could, in order to load up on future winners ;)
yes nothing like loading up on future winners, especially if you can buy more at a 35% discount only 2 months after you participated in a rights issue.....incredible opportunity......if you really believe it is a winner.
I wonder why salt did not take up this incredible opportunity.;);)
maybe they were a bit surprised none of the senior management took up their rights....investor like senior management putting their money where their mouth is.

[Leftfield]

Interesting you say this about kiwisaver: not sure if you have mistakenly posted in the wrong thread, or maybe would like to point out one particular ranking system of one particular fund from one particular source, or were trying to imply westpac is somehow determining PEB's stable share price (of late)... It got me thinking, lets have a look at a few facts about institutional ownership of PEB (again...)

Back to the PEB's "insto" register: (going of recent information I have tried my best to find)
- Westpac: 7.86% (increased holding disclosed on 19 May 2016)
- First NZ: 10.10% (increased holding disclosed on 9 November 2015)
- Devon: 6.42% (increased holding disclosed on 29 September 2015)
- Harbour Asset: 9.06% (increased holding disclosed on 8 July 2015)
- Salt: 8.17% (increased holding disclosed on 6 July 2015)
= over 40% of PEB held by institutions...

What is a coincidence, although probably unrelated (such as the comment you have made) is that Salt Funds Management, who increased their stake from 5.2% in mid 2014, to 8.2% in mid 2015, were last night named fund manager of the year.

Good post thanks TJ.

[Minerbarejet]

http://www.aua2016.org/webcasts/webcast_play.cfm?videoID=4044&agendaid=11961&id=11952,11955,11956,11953,11957,11958,11959,11960 ,11961,11962,11963

For those interested in what is actually going on.

[Leftfield]

Thanks Minerbj good viewing. Impressive results for PEB (that have previously been released.)

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks Minerbj good viewing. Impressive results for PEB (that have previously been released.)
Previously released it may well be but not in this completely "in your face", upfront and validated manner to the AUA by a well respected American urologist.
Unmet medical need. Hard to ignore as a candidate for the job.

[When the bass drops]

We are only a day away people. Will be interesting to see what arrives. Disclosure: Slight build up in holding prior to announcement.

On another note, urologists named as the number one job to avoid if you hate stress. http://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/careersandeducation/29-jobs-to-avoid-if-you-hate-stress/ss-BBtqI0v?ocid=mailsignout#image=30 I feel for them. They do God's work.

[Schrodinger]

We are only a day away people. Will be interesting to see what arrives. Disclosure: Slight build up in holding prior to announcement.

On another note, urologists named as the number one job to avoid if you hate stress. http://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/careersandeducation/29-jobs-to-avoid-if-you-hate-stress/ss-BBtqI0v?ocid=mailsignout#image=30 I feel for them. They do God's work.

No evidence of insider trading so it seems they have the information well protected. Will be interesting to see the numbers. Lets hope they show a strong sales uptake.

[pierre]

No evidence of insider trading so it seems they have the information well protected. Will be interesting to see the numbers. Lets hope they show a strong sales uptake.

Yep - doesn't appear to be any panic selling - or enthusiastic buying. Maybe everyone is a bit numb and just sitting on their hands till the announcement.

I agree we definitely need to see some upwards movement on the sales graph - and not too much drain on the bank account though paying those sales reps will be costing a dollar or two.

I'm not expecting miracles though (I think they might occur next year - lol).

[trader_jackson]

I'm not expecting miracles though (I think they might occur next year - lol).

I'm expecting this as well next year...

http://www.medicalrepublic.com.au/new-biomarkers-hold-promise-bladder-cancer-detection/

Few days old so I apolgize if it has already been mentioned on the forum

[Minerbarejet]

Well now, isnt this interesting.
From the Pharmaphorum part of the latest news from PEB.
"The company is now planning to market its Cxbladder platforms for a US release later this year as well as moving into the colorectal cancer market with the imminent release of its Cxcolorectal test".

[Ginger_steps_]

http://www.aua2016.org/webcasts/webcast_play.cfm?videoID=4044&agendaid=11961&id=11952,11955,11956,11953,11957,11958,11959,11960 ,11961,11962,11963

For those interested in what is actually going on.
Could he have made that presentation any more boring?? Urologists cant possibly take note of a new and exciting product if they are asleep!

[Minerbarejet]

Could he have made that presentation any more boring?? Urologists cant possibly take note of a new and exciting product if they are asleep!Dr Woo was obviously awake, - now its all over an Australian Medical Journal.

[Snow Leopard]

Could he have made that presentation any more boring?? Urologists cant possibly take note of a new and exciting product if they are asleep!

The would not need to stay awake - all he did was read the slide pack! :t_down:

The entire thing is only 4.5 minutes long. :t_down: :t_down:

Mind you he really sold it with "CxBladder Monitor performed quite well". :t_up:

Conferences I used to go to and give presentations at (in a different field) had sessions of about 40 mins, presentation then Q&A.

[They still talk with awe about my "Company Road Map" presentation from San Francisco 2005 :cool:]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Plenary session. Time limited and all conference delegates are expected to attend. This is not your booth in the corner and it requires some effort to get them granted.
Short sweet succinct beats 40 minutes of droning.
Actually it was that early in the morning it probably woke them all up.:t_up:

Dr Woo is obviously a morning person.:)

[Snow Leopard]

Plenary session. Time limited and all conference delegates are expected to attend. This is not your booth in the corner and it requires some effort to get them granted.
Short sweet succinct beats 40 minutes of droning.
Actually it was that early in the morning it probably woke them all up.:t_up:

Dr Woo is obviously a morning person.:)

So this was one of many plenary sessions which ran most of the day, most every day throughout the 6 days of the conference.

So apart from that 5 minute drone (among the very many) and Booth 4711 (of many booths) tucked in a corner somewhere what did Pacific Edge bring?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

So this was one of many plenary sessions which ran most of the day, most every day throughout the 6 days of the conference.

So apart from that 5 minute drone (among the very many) and Booth 4711 (of many booths) tucked in a corner somewhere what did Pacific Edge bring?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

What did PEB bring? David Darling's sunny and optimistic proposition that sales are going to hit US$100m in 2018 of course!

[When the bass drops]

What did PEB bring? David Darling's sunny and optimistic proposition that sales are going to hit US$100m in 2018 of course!

Welcome back Balance.

[Minerbarejet]

So this was one of many plenary sessions which ran most of the day, most every day throughout the 6 days of the conference.

So apart from that 5 minute drone (among the very many) and Booth 4711 (of many booths) tucked in a corner somewhere what did Pacific Edge bring?


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Ah yes but booth 4711 is not what it seems,
I suspect it may be a Tardis:)

[Tsuba]

Ah yes but booth 4711 is not what it seems,
I suspect it may be a Tardis:)

Your clever wit maybe beyond the grasp of some people here Miner. ;)

Fire on for the Guinea Fowl......

[Snow Leopard]

Ah yes but booth 4711 is not what it seems,
I suspect it may be a Tardis:)

Dr Who Theme:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75V4ClJZME4

Scene: A urologist approaches the PEB stand:

[ur] Dr Woo?

[dw] No, Dr Who.

[ur] Dr Who?

[dw] Yes, thats me!

[ur] You are who?

[dw] First base! So how can I help you?

[ur] I hear PEB will have an annual turnover of $100m soon.

[dw] Well with my trusty Tardis here, [slaps stand which creaks a bit] I have traveled the chronosphere from the Big Bang until the End of the Universe itself, and I have never managed to get within 5 years of such an event.

[ur] Exterminate, exterminate

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Now a firm believer in ESP.
Saw that coming a miĺe off.
Lol
Satay warm PT

[pierre]

Anyone in Dunedin able to do a pub crawl or trawl the restaurants tonight?

I'm keen to know if the PEB directors are drinking Moet, Speights - or maybe only sparkling water.

[davflaws]

Now a firm believer in ESP.
Saw that coming a miĺe off.
Lol
Satay warm PT
The most interesting and entertaining exchange in the last four hundred pages.

[Snow Leopard]

The most interesting and entertaining exchange in the last four hundred pages.

We accept good reputation marks in lieu of cash.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

The most interesting and entertaining exchange in the last four hundred pages.
Aw, shucks.:blush:
Do you mean you actually read this stuff???
I had no idea.:scared:

[Minerbarejet]

Your clever wit maybe beyond the grasp of some people here Miner. ;)

Fire on for the Guinea Fowl......
I have a disused Tardis down the back somewhere, well, I think its a Tardis.
Shall I send you a piece for analysis?:)

[Tsuba]

I have a disused Tardis down the back somewhere, well, I think its a Tardis.
Shall I send you a piece for analysis?:)

Yes please it maybe the bit I need to get my one going. Anyone want to come for a ride ??

[cammo]

Actually if you can get the TARDIS to pee on a stick, we can tell you if it's ok or not. I wouldn't be touching it with a bargepole until it tests ok.

Results day ?!?!? 😂

[Schrodinger]

Actually if you can get the TARDIS to pee on a stick, we can tell you if it's ok or not. I wouldn't be touching it with a bargepole until it tests ok.

Results day ?!?!? ��

Beer/popcorn/champas/tissues?

[cammo]

It's been posted. About what I expected

[Balance]

From the above, and doing the addition for you we are expecting for FY16:
Revenue: $4.378;
Loss: $13.640;
Cash in the bank: $26.091.

Better numbers is success, Worse numbers is failure.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/283037

Revenue $4.98m
Loss $15.45m
Cash $24.16m

So revenues better than expected but losses even more so, resulting in lower cash at balance date.

Big red flag : sales increased by $3m but receivables increased by $3.4m !!!!!!

(basically, still giving the stuff away).

[winner69]

So David says - Our commercial journey is still in its infancy

Suppose that means $100m in 10 years now - yes?

But achieved his successful commercialisation ambition - at least he has taken it to market. Profit not on the agenda

[Schrodinger]

So they need $95m revenue in 2 years that's some hockey stick.

[winner69]

t_j its good to see revenues rising at faster rate than expenses. You said they would

All honky dory then

[Balance]

t_j its good to see revenues rising at faster rate than expenses. You said they would

All honky dory then

Outstanding result indeed - now only taking an increase of $6m in expenses to generate $3m increase in sales (all still unpaid for).

:D

[Schrodinger]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/283037

Revenue $4.98m
Loss $15.45m
Cash $24.16m

So revenues better than expected but losses even more so, resulting in lower cash at balance date.

Big red flag : sales increased by $3m but receivables increased by $3.4m !!!!!!

(basically, still giving the stuff away).

>$1.8m 180 days or more. I would assume the sector they sell into is not short of money. Why have they let this amount of money build up?

Looking further at the cashflow statements they could be losing more than $1m (reduction in revenue) in bad debts or bascially customers not paying.

[winner69]

>$1.8m 180 days or more. I would assume the sector they sell into is not short of money. Why have they let this amount of money build up?

In PEB time 180 days is a nano-second

[pak]

As expected I suppose. The loss was my biggest worry and still is.......will see what the market says.

[Balance]

As expected I suppose. The loss was my biggest worry and still is.......will see what the market says.

Underwriters now holding unsaleable large stakes will keep supporting the share price until the next capital raising - within next 18 months.

[Apathy]

As expected I suppose. The loss was my biggest worry and still is.......will see what the market says.

definitely no surprise - only a few days left for the March 31st companies to report and the closer to the end of the month the results come out - the worse they usually are..

[trader_jackson]

definitely no surprise - only a few days left for the March 31st companies to report and the closer to the end of the month the results come out - the worse they usually are..

Aside from not really being related to PEB anyway... you have got to be joking me right???

[Apathy]

Aside from not really being related to PEB anyway... you have got to be joking me right???

What part? You think its a good result? Have I missed some good announcements? Mainfreight was probably the best but only ok "satisfactory"... SPY poor - lets see what pops up in next few days..

[trader_jackson]

You have clearly missed some good results, for example PEB is a good result (yes this is debatable as always...) but it meet analysts expectations (just not quite great... that is for next year ;))

You have also clearly missed some great results as well... for example:
ARV reported yesterday and share price is up in double digit percentages in less than 2 days of trading
TIL, one of the "hottest stocks" (according to several users on here, and recent + past 52 weeks share price performance) is due to report tomorrow... if your are correct, then 270% share price growth over the past 52 weeks could quickly be undone!
GTK reported very good results today and share price is up very solidly, on top of a solid run up towards reporting date

I don't track alot of companies in detail so there are probably more than the above, but to think the 'bad' companies report at the end of the period is a very, very, very big misconception!

[drcjp]

Just to inform, market tests take about 10 years to enter the clinicians conciousness. Troponins for heart attacks (c1990s) and BNP for heart failure (early 2000s) both took 10 years research evidence to enter guidelines. Then they went crazy (80M troponins in USA alone at ~$9-12 a test).

PEB has about 3-4 years of evidence. The rest is math.

[Apathy]

You have clearly missed some good results, for example PEB is a good result (yes this is debatable as always...) but it meet analysts expectations (just not quite great... that is for next year ;))

You have also clearly missed some great results as well... for example:
ARV reported yesterday and share price is up in double digit percentages in less than 2 days of trading
TIL, one of the "hottest stocks" (according to several users on here, and recent + past 52 weeks share price performance) is due to report tomorrow... if your are correct, then 270% share price growth over the past 52 weeks could quickly be undone!
GTK reported very good results today and share price is up very solidly, on top of a solid run up towards reporting date

I don't track alot of companies in detail so there are probably more than the above, but to think the 'bad' companies report at the end of the period is a very, very, very big misconception!

Well I think we are some distance apart on the PEB result... ARV - knew that one was going to get thrown back - it was a very good result!

It was a very general comment that reflects my glass half full cynicism - you can't argue that companies as a general rule are far faster with the positive announcements (be them financial or otherwise) than they are the negative!

[Snow Leopard]

Good to see PEB out doing themselves, this year having to reissue the results after an hour, the second time with more of the necessary bits present.

Also worthy of note, and which may see them win a Paper Tiger Supreme Accounting Award, is that last years accounts have been restated because they forgot about the Employee Share Options.
That adds an extra $1,246,087 (or over 10%) to last years net loss and bring it to the new value of $12,475,093.

Otherwise, first impressions, good to see improved product revenue, shocked at the size in the increase in expenses, but I will have a proper dive into the detail later.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: No PEB, DYOR, E&OE, Think Apathy should be more apathetic.

[forest]

[QUOTE=Paper Tiger;622183]Good to see PEB out doing themselves, this year having to reissue the results after an hour, the second time with more of the necessary bits present.

And that for a company which has an accountant (Chris Swan) as chairman.

I think numbers was never his thing, remember the number of test for-cast a few years ago. :).

[Balance]

A company like PEB burning through cash and with no indication whatsoever of when it will turn a profit or cash flow positive needs to have cash on hand at all times to at least last the year ahead.

PEB burned through $17m of cash last financial year and it appears cash burn will continue to be high to support the full 'commercialization' infrastructure.

Cash at $24.6m at balance date means PEB could be back to the market for more capital in between 6 to 9 months.

[Snow Leopard]

... shocked at the size in the increase in expenses, but I will have a proper dive into the detail later...

See note 7 & 17.

You may recall last year that $500,000 went on the expenses for compensation from the delayed announcement of price sensitive data.
So remove that from last years expenses.

Now this year they have a reversal (credit) of $135,016 in the expenses because 'this portion of the accural [sic] was not required'.
So add that into this years expenses.

And, unfortunately, I have just increased the Year on Year expense difference by $635,016.

:(

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Here is the worry.

Expenses of $23M produces revenue of $5m
+ grant income which ends soon,
+ interest on the massive cash reserves that you will not need if you can make money,
+ exchange rate gains which can go either way.

So to be crude let us divide the $23m up as:
$21m fixed:
all that R&D that you must keep up to stay in the game;
salaries including the mega-dollars for the top management;
keeping the S&M department on the road;
etc.
$2m variable but directly related to revenue. A gross profit margin of 60%.

Using the magic formula R * 0.6 = $21m gives

R = $35m

or $35m of revenue enables breakeven on $21m fixed + $14m variable.

There you go, sweet and simple, and probably not totally accurate, but the Tiger's survival instincts say not too far out.

PEB need to hit the equivalent sales rate of $35m per annum (or $3m per month) before the cash runs out.

They have two years.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: DYOR, but you can start from here.

[Minerbarejet]

Probably right PT.
However.
Grant income may continue as there was an indication that after the three years were up it would be reviewed.
Pretty much the whole basis of revenue is from Detect.
Triage has not kicked in much yet.
Monitor has not kicked in any yet.
VA is not included in the latest figures.
Tolmar contributes nothing yet.
Nor does Oryzon but they were waiting for Monitor I think.
CMS with its big backlog of unpaid bills doesnt help cashflow
KP is still on the cards for this year.
Colorectal cancer screening part of health budget this year
Good time to release cxcolorectal prognosis, yes?
Two years sounds about right. Will still have a year up its sleeve for 100mil:D

You worry too much for someone who doesnt have any PEBs:)

[kiwidollabill]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/384677/us-sales-rise-losses-concern

Pacific Edge chief executive David Darling said he expected "cash burn'' for full-year 2017 would be "largely in line'' with the past year.

While not providing any near-term financial guidance, Mr Darling reiterated Pacific Edge remained committed to achieving its $100million revenue target by full-year 2019.

[Apathy]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/384677/us-sales-rise-losses-concern

Pacific Edge chief executive David Darling said he expected "cash burn'' for full-year 2017 would be "largely in line'' with the past year.

While not providing any near-term financial guidance, Mr Darling reiterated Pacific Edge remained committed to achieving its $100million revenue target by full-year 2019.

I expect to buy a winning lotto ticket some time during 2017 and remain committed to marrying a super model by end 2019. My odds are somewhat better than Darlings.

[Snow Leopard]

I expect to buy a winning lotto ticket some time during 2017 and remain committed to marrying a super model by end 2019. My odds are somewhat better than Darlings.

So you want to have your own Darling, how sweet!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

Probably right PT.
However.
Grant income may continue as there was an indication that after the three years were up it would be reviewed.
Pretty much the whole basis of revenue is from Detect.
Triage has not kicked in much yet.
Monitor has not kicked in any yet.
VA is not included in the latest figures.
Tolmar contributes nothing yet.
Nor does Oryzon but they were waiting for Monitor I think.
CMS with its big backlog of unpaid bills doesnt help cashflow
KP is still on the cards for this year.
Colorectal cancer screening part of health budget this year
Good time to release cxcolorectal prognosis, yes?
Two years sounds about right. Will still have a year up its sleeve for 100mil:D

You worry too much for someone who doesnt have any PEBs:)

Your statement about Tolmar is incorrect (Presentation slide 4)
The rest we wait patiently, see how the above and more unfurls and keep modifying our highly accurate most likely future scenario model (aka guess) to be even more accurate.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Sydney or the Bush !

[Harvey Specter]

While not providing any near-term financial guidance, Mr Darling reiterated Pacific Edge remained committed to achieving its $100million revenue target by full-year 2019.Committed or needs to be committed - that is an insane amount of growth.

Not that it makes much difference but is the $100m in a financial year or cumulative? I assume it is annual.

[Lewylewylewy]

Committed or needs to be committed - that is an insane amount of growth.

Not that it makes much difference but is the $100m in a financial year or cumulative? I assume it is annual.

Whenever I read about PEB's speculations, I always think of when Dr Evil from Austin Powers was asked how much to charge for ransoming the world. "One millllion dollars! hahahahaha! ...Oh, one million isn't very much now? Well.... 100 million dollars!?" :)

Numbers...

[Balance]

Here is the worry.

PEB need to hit the equivalent sales rate of $35m per annum (or $3m per month) before the cash runs out.

They have two years.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: DYOR, but you can start from here.

Cash in the bank of $24.6m as at 31 March 2016 will not last 2 years, especially given that PEB is selling its kits on long extended credit.

Must say however that I have a grudging admiration for the audacity of PEB to pursue a multi-product and market strategy.

Others would describe the strategy as 'going for broke'.

[Snow Leopard]

Cash in the bank of $24.6m as at 31 March 2016 will not last 2 years, especially given that PEB is selling its kits on long extended credit....


http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/384677/us-sales-rise-losses-concern

Pacific Edge chief executive David Darling said he expected "cash burn'' for full-year 2017 would be "largely in line'' with the past year....

Yes it would appear to have been very foolish of me to assume that as revenue (& hopefully cash inflows) increase rather than control expenses that PEB would be looking to also increase their expenses to offset the gain.


...
Must say however that I have a grudging admiration for the audacity of PEB to pursue a multi-product and market strategy.

Others would describe the strategy as 'going for broke'.


...Sydney or the Bush !

Way ahead of you, as always.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

Interesting to see that FY 2019 is now in print as the declared end of the 100 million racetrack and 5 full ​years.
So with 3 more full year reports to come 17,18,19 its starting to look even more doable. No? :)

[Balance]

Interesting to see that FY 2019 is now in print as the declared end of the 100 million racetrack and 5 full ​years.
So with 3 more full year reports to come 17,18,19 its starting to look even more doable. No? :)

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10872027

March 2013 : "Dunedin-based bladder cancer detection test inventor Pacific Edge believes it could be turning over $100 million a year in the United States within five years, following the registration of its own diagnostic laboratory in Pennsylvania".

Why PEB has a different time clock than the rest of humanity!

If it does not work, fudge it!

[kiwidollabill]

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/384845/pacific-edge-envisages-quantum-shift-sales

The big takeaway...

"He suggested if sales revenue did not get traction shortly, operating expenses would use up the $24million cash in hand, and Pacific Edge might have to consider going back to its shareholders for more capital. When asked, Mr Darling ruled out returning to shareholders for capital; having raised $35million last year, with a balance of $24million at present.

"No. We don't plan on that,'' he said when asked about capital raising.
Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said the $24million cash in hand equated to about 18 months' operation expenses, at cash burn rates of about $8million per six months."

I think it is time to be realistic about the timeframe required to make this business stay afloat, alot of diehards quote back to 'its a long term game, we'll know if it is success in 10 years' and talking about the $100M target by 2019. The next 6-12 months is do or die for PEB, unless they massively increase rev they will fail to move into a cashflow +ve situation and have to go back to shareholders (something DD has promised not to do). The cap raise (in my mind) would likely be alot less than 0.60 and alienate the current underwriters and major shareholders (it'll also be close to ~$100M total loss). This report has dulled the SP somewhat, but unless the next HY result is >$5M rev I fear it'll tank. DD, the leadership team and the board all have balls (and they honestly need to) I'll give them that. In DDs words "Those two companies can be transformational..." (VA and KP) but if life has taught me anything - a customers timeline for buying rarely aligns with your expectations in making the sale.

DYOR but the risk around PEB has just kicked up a notch....

[winner69]

PEB time

The days are long but the decades are short

[winner69]

Headline of the ODT article read . Pacific Edge envisages 'quantum shift' in sales

But it appears that it was actually the Craigs man who used the words quantum shift, not PEB as headline suggests

Mind you transformational is pretty impressive

[couta1]

Headline of the ODT article read . Pacific Edge envisages 'quantum shift' in sales

But it appears that it was actually the Craigs man who used the words quantum shift, not PEB as headline suggests

Mind you transformational is pretty impressive Sounds like back to the future Peb style.

[Minerbarejet]

We have just had a 2.56 rate of increase year on year based on Detect sales mostly.
2.56 per annum will get us to 83m by FY2019 using the Detect sales rate if that can be maintained
Add in any Triage or Monitor sales to the incumbent urologists already using Detect, (they wont be hard to convince and wont need to be resold on the idea).
Add in KP validating and accepting Triage perhaps and they too will probably pick up Detect and Monitor as well
From here on any user program that gets signed up should get all three Detect, Triage and Monitor accepted.

[pierre]

We have just had a 2.56 rate of increase year on year based on Detect sales mostly.
2.56 per annum will get us to 83m by FY2019 using the Detect sales rate if that can be maintained
Add in any Triage or Monitor sales to the incumbent urologists already using Detect, (they wont be hard to convince and wont need to be resold on the idea).
Add in KP validating and accepting Triage perhaps and they too will probably pick up Detect and Monitor as well
From here on any user program that gets signed up should get all three Detect, Triage and Monitor accepted.

Here's another quote from the ODT story:

"Pacific Edge chief executive David Darling said, when contacted, he stood by the revenue projections.

"We're a growth company so we have to be investing in sales,'' he said.

While conceding investors and analysts ‘‘want to know now'' how sales will get from $5million now to $100million, he said three large US customers held the key.

Both the Veterans Association (VA) and health insurer and provider Kaiser Permanente had memberships in the millions, with Kaiser alone "having more members than the population of New Zealand''.

"This is very doable and we stand by it,'' Mr Darling said.

"Those two companies can be transformational ... the VA is a deal done and dusted and just needs a users programme trial,'' Mr Darling said. "

If David Darling wanted to hedge, fudge or mumble about the numbers, he was apparently given the opportunity - but he chose not to - he stands by the revenue projections.

He sounds very confident that there will be a "transformational" change to the revenue so perhaps Minerbarejet's growth rate forecast could easily be possible. It seems a big call but stranger things have happened.

And what if PEB sales do only reach $83m by 2019? If the growth rate continues at around 2x - 2020 would be a boomer!

There will always be plenty of ammo for the cynics - but there's also an increasing amount for the optimists too. I guess it really depends on whether you're a trader or an investor - and at the current SP it seems you might do OK whichever strategy you adopt. Patience and belief are required in both cases of course.

A question for the experts:

Assume for a moment that Miner's forecast of a consistent annual growth rate of 2.56 is achieved and the sales figures for the next 3 years look like this:
2017 $12.7m
2018 $32.4m
2019 $83.0m

What do you think the SP might be on 31 May each year?

[winner69]

Here's another quote from the ODT story:

"Pacific Edge chief executive David Darling said, when contacted, he stood by the revenue projections.

"We're a growth company so we have to be investing in sales,'' he said.

While conceding investors and analysts ‘‘want to know now'' how sales will get from $5million now to $100million, he said three large US customers held the key.

Both the Veterans Association (VA) and health insurer and provider Kaiser Permanente had memberships in the millions, with Kaiser alone "having more members than the population of New Zealand''.

"This is very doable and we stand by it,'' Mr Darling said.

"Those two companies can be transformational ... the VA is a deal done and dusted and just needs a users programme trial,'' Mr Darling said. "

If David Darling wanted to hedge, fudge or mumble about the numbers, he was apparently given the opportunity - but he chose not to - he stands by the revenue projections.

He sounds very confident that there will be a "transformational" change to the revenue so perhaps Minerbarejet's growth rate forecast could easily be possible. It seems a big call but stranger things have happened.

And what if PEB sales do only reach $83m by 2019? If the growth rate continues at around 2x - 2020 would be a boomer!

There will always be plenty of ammo for the cynics - but there's also an increasing amount for the optimists too. I guess it really depends on whether you're a trader or an investor - and at the current SP it seems you might do OK whichever strategy you adopt. Patience and belief are required in both cases of course.

A question for the experts:

Assume for a moment that Miner's forecast of a consistent annual growth rate of 2.56 is achieved and the sales figures for the next 3 years look like this:
2017 $12.7m
2018 $32.4m
2019 $83.0m

What do you think the SP might be on 31 May each year?

70 cents 2017 / 77 cents 2018 / 85 cents 2019

Thats what a DCF produce using a 10% discount rate

[Baa_Baa]

70 cents 2017 / 77 cents 2018 / 85 cents 2019

Thats what a DCF produce using a 10% discount rate

That's not very encouraging, piddly SP growth for huge sales growth. As an aside, PEB fired a 'warning sell' on my weekly chart, the 'trigger sell' is a fall through and weekly close below .59 being the 14EMA. The Friday drop and daily close below the 50MA might have rattled a few who have made nice ST gains from the .40's.

JMHO.

[trader_jackson]

70 cents 2017 / 77 cents 2018 / 85 cents 2019

Thats what a DCF produce using a 10% discount rate

The underwriters of the last/final capital raising will be doing pretty well, even off these conservative estimates ! ;)

[winner69]

The underwriters of the last/final capital raising will be doing pretty well, even off these conservative estimates ! ;)

They did their sums as well and got a valuation of 65/70 cents as well

Our mate MAC would have had a much higher valuation though

[trader_jackson]

A question for the experts:

Assume for a moment that Miner's forecast of a consistent annual growth rate of 2.56 is achieved and the sales figures for the next 3 years look like this:
2017 $12.7m
2018 $32.4m
2019 $83.0m

What do you think the SP might be on 31 May each year?

I am not an expert, but I would not assume a fixed growth rate of 2.56

[pierre]

I am not an expert, but I would not assume a fixed growth rate of 2.56

I wouldn't either. It is just a theoretical exercise.

[okay]

Headline of the ODT article read . Pacific Edge envisages 'quantum shift' in sales

But it appears that it was actually the Craigs man who used the words quantum shift, not PEB as headline suggests

Mind you transformational is pretty impressive

Quantum can be a very dangerous word to be associated with. Just ask the Intueri management:)

[Minerbarejet]

It appears PEB is gaining traction. :t_up:

Did anyone else notice that after a temporary loss of Balance we are not Skidding anymore.

[kiwidollabill]

2017 $12.7m
2018 $32.4m
2019 $83.0m

Even if this does pan out they would have run out of cash before 2018 FY

[pierre]

70 cents 2017 / 77 cents 2018 / 85 cents 2019

Thats what a DCF produce using a 10% discount rate

So, in our theoretical scenario:
FY17 sales increase from $5m to $12m - SP moves from 60c to 70c
FY18 sales increase from $12m to $32m - SP moves from 70c to only 77c?
FY19 sales increase from $32m to $83m - SP moves from 77c to only 85c?

Thanks for your reply Winner but why do you think the underwriters of the Cap raise at 61 cents would consider results like those as being acceptable?

I just hope that both Miner's potential sales projection and your SP projections are heavily on the conservative side!

Time alone will tell.

[trader_jackson]

What I find most amusing is that 1 user throws some numbers out, and suddenly others jump on board, repeat the numbers, and therefore feel these numbers must be final! :p

Time alone will definitely tell, and I'll repeat it again for those who didn't get it the first time, I would not assume a fixed growth rate of 2.56

Hint: I think the numbers are very conservative, and I don't think they'll run out of cash

[winner69]

So, in our theoretical scenario:
FY17 sales increase from $5m to $12m - SP moves from 60c to 70c
FY18 sales increase from $12m to $32m - SP moves from 70c to only 77c?
FY19 sales increase from $32m to $83m - SP moves from 77c to only 85c?

Thanks for your reply Winner but why do you think the underwriters of the Cap raise at 61 cents would consider results like those as being acceptable?

I just hope that both Miner's potential sales projection and your SP projections are both heavily on the conservative side!

Time alone will tell.

Currently $5m gives 60 cents

Seems you are suggesting that $12m in F16 should give $1.44

And then $32m gives $3.84

And then $83m gives $10.00 in 2019

Yes?

[winner69]

Thanks for your reply Winner but why do you think the underwriters of the Cap raise at 61 cents would consider results like those as being acceptable?

I just hope that both Miner's potential sales projection and your SP projections are heavily on the conservative side!

Time alone will tell.

Fair point. Lets assume underwriters did their sums and their DCF valuation came to a $1.00 with $83m sales in 2019 and using a 15% discount rate (Happy to underwrite at a 40% discount)

Then fair value or whatever you want to call it is $1.00 now - $1.15 in years time - $1.32 in 2 years time and $1.52 in 3 years time

More realistic in this theoretical case

[Minerbarejet]

What I find most amusing is that 1 user throws some numbers out, and suddenly others jump on board, repeat the numbers, and therefore feel these numbers must be final! :p

Time alone will definitely tell, and I'll repeat it again for those who didn't get it the first time, I would not assume a fixed growth rate of 2.56

Hint: I think the numbers are very conservative, and I don't think they'll run out of cashNo I wouldnt either.
2.56 is the growth rate that we have been presented with off this report. It is a fact
The indication is that if this rate is maintained over the coming years then 83 mill is quite on the cards.
If they can do just slightly better then the 100 mill comes into play
So its basically a guideline from here on as to whether they are on track.
Interesting also is that the first half was 1 and the second was 1.56.
So can we look forward to 1x4.9 mill for November and 1.56 x 4.9 mill for next May?
Dont forget the "seasonal anomaly" in June,July.:)

[couta1]

It appears PEB is gaining traction. :t_up:

Did anyone else notice that after a temporary loss of Balance we are not Skidding anymore. Classic Miner, you wasting your time here when your true calling lies in the comedy arena(Paid of course)

[pierre]

Currently $5m gives 60 cents

Seems you are suggesting that $12m in F16 should give $1.44

And then $32m gives $3.84

And then $83m gives $10.00 in 2019

Yes?

No. I wasn't suggesting anything at all as to what the SPs might be. I was just questioning your initial assumptions.
Your second response seems more likely should those sales results be achieved.
The caveat though is that all the numbers are hypothetical. I'm certainly not suggesting that any or all of them are set in stone.

[winner69]

2017 $12.7m
2018 $32.4m
2019 $83.0m

Even if this does pan out they would have run out of cash before 2018 FY

2020 $212m
2021 $543m
2022 $1.4 billion

Good eh t_j

[pierre]

2020 $212m
2021 $543m
2022 $1.4 billion

Good eh t_j

Lol. If TJ wasn't sure we were talking hypothetical numbers I am sure he will be now.

[trader_jackson]

Lol. If TJ wasn't sure we were talking hypothetical numbers I am sure he will be now.

I would not assume a fixed growth rate

Hint: I think the numbers are very conservative

;););)

[Snow Leopard]

I would not assume a fixed growth rate

Hint: I think the numbers are very conservative

;););)

So give us some numbers then, Revenue, Expenses, Cash Flow.

See if you can give us a better laugh than Minerbarejet.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

2020 $212m
2021 $543m
2022 $1.4 billion

Good eh t_jWith all those urine tests being done the market will be saturated.

[Balance]

NBR : "Pacific Edge expects sales from one or more very large customers will kick in before it runs out of cash".

And there you have it!

"Tens of thousands of tests and profitability after 2013 capital raising" !!!!!

[Tsuba]

NBR : "Pacific Edge expects sales from one or more very large customers will kick in before it runs out of cash".

And there you have it!

"Tens of thousands of tests and profitability after 2013 capital raising" !!!!!


Get a Guinea Fowl in your life Balance. Will do wonders for you. Nothing else seems to work.

[Balance]

NBR : "Pacific Edge expects sales from one or more very large customers will kick in before it runs out of cash".


Given that the deal with VHA was signed in February this year, sales should already be kicking in by the tens of thousands?

"Pacific Edge signs huge deal with Veterans Health Administration. Pacific Edge chief executive David Darling said the VHA was one of three large customers being targeted in the US and could eventually become one of Pacific Edge's largest US customers."

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/374865/pacific-edge-signs-huge-deal-veterans-health-administration

But then, maybe not as we are talking about PEB here!

[Minerbarejet]

Small matter of a User Programme to be completed by VA first, as stated, then the tens of thousands.

[Balance]

Small matter of a User Programme to be completed by VA first, as stated, then the tens of thousands.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/278479

No mention of user programme - just a lot of hype about millions of customers etc etc etc.

[Minerbarejet]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/278479

No mention of user programme - just a lot of hype about millions of customers etc etc etc.
Post 14720 by Pierre
Last line of ODT article included in his post.

[Balance]

Post 14720 by Pierre
Last line of ODT article included in his post.


Ah - so PEB should have added to this statement in the release about the need for a user programme! - “The FSS contract award is a lengthy and iterative process. Following this signing of the agreement, the VA will issue the contract award documentation and we will begin engaging with the key stakeholders within the many VA and DOD centers to ensure that Cxbladder is available to physicians and their patients.”

So much for disclosure standard from PEB then. Its announcement with all the rah rah rah and hype and hoopla conveniently and deceptively leaves out the requirement of a user programme!

I would go so far as to state that PEB is very deliberate in the way it makes its announcements to misinform.

[Carpenterjoe]

It takes about 7 minutes before PEB gets mentioned, its more for the Cellmid investors amongst us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKubC1rFl7U

I think Maria gets a little confused with the VA agreement, its about a month old, apologies if this has already been posted.

[winner69]

Whstsup with the share price today?

Probably only a bit of noise? Or is profit taking? They the normal reasons wheeled out when a share price falls after a good run

[Minerbarejet]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/80499091/canterbury-mothers-set-up-charity-to-help-fund-child-cancer-research


Pacific Edge also has immediate and perpetual access to any cancer intellectual property emerging from the University of Otago’s Cancer Genetics Laboratory. This relationship has been in place from when Pacific Edge was formed in 2001. This represents a significant future asset.

www.pacificedgedx.com/company/intellectual-property (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/company/intellectual-property)

Well now, isnt that interesting.

[winner69]

This new guy Chris de man for PEB

And Swann retiring - with these parting words

Chris said: “It has been a rewarding and at times, challenging journey for Pacific Edge over the last ten years as the company has successfully transitioned from a research-based start up to a commercial entity. I am confident that the company is in good shape going forward, with a strong Board and management team.”

[Minerbarejet]

This new guy Chris de man for PEB

Chris said: “It has been a rewarding and at times, challenging journey for Pacific Edge over the last ten years as the company has successfully transitioned from a research-based start up to a commercial entity. I am confident that the company is in good shape going forward, with a strong Board and management team.”
Bit of speed reading gone awry there Winner.
Go back and try again

[Balance]

Chris said: “It has been a rewarding and at times, challenging journey for Pacific Edge over the last ten years as the company has successfully transitioned from a research-based start up to a commercial entity. I am confident that the company is in good shape going forward, with a strong Board and management team.”

No mention of tens of thousands of tests and when he is going to sell the rest of his shares?

[winner69]

Bit of speed reading gone awry there Winner.
Go back and try again

Yes - I didn't notice Swann was retiring - and it was Swann who said that

Big loss

[Minerbarejet]

No mention of tens of thousands of tests and when he is going to sell the rest of his shares?
Have the nominations for Chairperson closed yet?:)

[pierre]

Have the nominations for Chairperson closed yet?:)

Are you interested in taking on the role Miner?

[Minerbarejet]

Are you interested in taking on the role Miner?
No, definitely not qualified, myself, but it appears others on ST are.
However, taking up the position may require them to actually have some 10s of thousands of shares so they can be lambasted for selling later without asking permission from Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all.

[Balance]

No, definitely not qualified, myself, but it appears others on ST are.
However, taking up the position may require them to actually have some 10s of thousands of shares so they can be lambasted for selling later without asking permission from Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all.

Ah - selling before or after ramping up the share price with bullish unrealistic unsubstantiable statements and comments?

[winner69]

No, definitely not qualified, myself, but it appears others on ST are.
However, taking up the position may require them to actually have some 10s of thousands of shares so they can be lambasted for selling later without asking permission from Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all.

My turn

In Devon Tom is known as Tom Cobley - but in fairness people in other parts of England often misspell his name

[Minerbarejet]

My turn

In Devon Tom is known as Tom Cobley - but in fairness people in other parts of England often misspell his name
Sorry, must have made a wrong turn somewhere.
Didnt realise I was in Devon.

[whatsup]

Have the nominations for Chairperson closed yet?:)

Chair man/chairwomen please.

[blackcap]

Chair man/chairwomen please.
Whats wrong with just plain chairman? My partner (a women) is also chairman on a couple of boards and cringes when ppl change the title to accommodate the fairer sex. She believes chairman is not a sexist term when applied to a women as the term is gender neutral. In dutch for example the position is known as "voorzitter" which translates to "leading sitter or seated".
I note that there is a drive to change the title to just "chair" and this to me is preferable to the horrible sounding chairperson.
But I digress, this must be the best news for PEB in a long time...

[When the bass drops]

WTBD is cautiously optimistic about the future success of PEB, in terms of y-on-y revenue, penetration into the US, where the share price might end up and what the market cap could be.

WTBD doubts another capital raise will occur, but concedes the small chance of one more.

WTBD is content with the notion that 'change' and 'progress' is often slow, but just because things aren't happening yet WTBD will not err on the side of rabid negativity just for the sake of it.

WTBD is in the game for the long haul. WTBD discloses his 40k+ personal holding in this stock.

WTBC humorously likens the spectrum of contributors to this thread to the NZ Parliament. A reasonable bunch of far-right nutters (100% cycophants), a heap of rabbit Greenies (people so far left they have fallen off the edge almost, typing their mutterings with one finger with the other hand holding on to soil) but a sea of National and Labour sitting on each sides of the middle ground waiting patiently for more news (with their own preconceived ideas of what may happen to PEB).

[Carpenterjoe]

WTBD is cautiously optimistic about the future success of PEB, in terms of y-on-y revenue, penetration into the US, where the share price might end up and what the market cap could be.

WTBD doubts another capital raise will occur, but concedes the small chance of one more.

WTBD is content with the notion that 'change' and 'progress' is often slow, but just because things aren't happening yet WTBD will not err on the side of rabid negativity just for the sake of it.

WTBD is in the game for the long haul. WTBD discloses his 40k+ personal holding in this stock.

WTBC humorously likens the spectrum of contributors to this thread to the NZ Parliament. A reasonable bunch of far-right nutters (100% cycophants), a heap of rabbit Greenies (people so far left they have fallen off the edge almost, typing their mutterings with one finger with the other hand holding on to soil) but a sea of National and Labour sitting on each sides of the middle ground waiting patiently for more news (with their own preconceived ideas of what may happen to PEB).


Well Said,

Except for the capital raising part, Cash needs to come from somewhere and it needs to come earlier than its needed. Reimbursements for this technology can be lengthy and then I believe the amount can be negotiated.
I'm tipping some sort of capital raising will occur in twelve months and I don't see an issue with it. How it effects the share price is for somebody far smarter than me, if Snaps was still kicking I'm sure he/she would have the answer.

[Minerbarejet]

WTBD is cautiously optimistic about the future success of PEB, in terms of y-on-y revenue, penetration into the US, where the share price might end up and what the market cap could be.

WTBD doubts another capital raise will occur, but concedes the small chance of one more.

WTBD is content with the notion that 'change' and 'progress' is often slow, but just because things aren't happening yet WTBD will not err on the side of rabid negativity just for the sake of it.

WTBD is in the game for the long haul. WTBD discloses his 40k+ personal holding in this stock.

WTBC humorously likens the spectrum of contributors to this thread to the NZ Parliament. A reasonable bunch of far-right nutters (100% cycophants), a heap of rabbit Greenies (people so far left they have fallen off the edge almost, typing their mutterings with one finger with the other hand holding on to soil) but a sea of National and Labour sitting on each sides of the middle ground waiting patiently for more news (with their own preconceived ideas of what may happen to PEB).
All good for WTBD but who the heck is WTBC?

[winner69]

All good for WTBD but who the heck is WTBC?

His cousin

[kiwidollabill]

How would a future cap raise be felt by the market? Considering DD has flat out denined they will need another one?

I doubt they will generate enough free cash flow fast enough to get away without one.

[Fox]

How would a future cap raise be felt by the market? Considering DD has flat out denined they will need another one?

I doubt they will generate enough free cash flow fast enough to get away without one.

Wouldn't be the greatest thing in the world as this is going against what DD has said, which may discredit some of his other claims regarding the future targets of the company.

[whatsup]

Whats wrong with just plain chairman? My partner (a women) is also chairman on a couple of boards and cringes when ppl change the title to accommodate the fairer sex. She believes chairman is not a sexist term when applied to a women as the term is gender neutral. In dutch for example the position is known as "voorzitter" which translates to "leading sitter or seated".
I note that there is a drive to change the title to just "chair" and this to me is preferable to the horrible sounding chairperson.
But I digress, this must be the best news for PEB in a long time...

Agree, Political B S has wormed its way into all aspects of ordinary life, sad but true hence the rise of Donald Trump and his brand of normality.