PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[GR8DAY]

......surely the 333,333 buyer the other day must know something??

[Slam dunk]

Is anyone going to be at the AGM that can update this forum?

[baller18]

Is anyone going to be at the AGM that can update this forum?
Yes, please update!
So, I can go in for the kill :D

[Dej]

Is anyone going to be at the AGM that can update this forum?

Hancocks or Sparky are probably our best bet!

[Toasty]

......surely the 333,333 buyer the other day must know something??

But what does the 333,333 seller know?

[Dej]

But what does the 333,333 seller know?

There was no one person, it was bought on market from people who have had bids up to sell at around 58-60 for awhile I am pretty sure.

[GR8DAY]

There was no one person, it was bought on market from people who have had bids up to sell at around 58-60 for awhile I am pretty sure.

.....one buyer, 333,333 shares@60c, WHAMOO, all gone! doesnt matter about how many sellers...the point being to make one purchase to that level takes either guts,stupidity or MAYBE a little bit of inside knowledge........I'm suggesting the latter.

[Dej]

.....one buyer, 333,333 shares@60c, WHAMOO, all gone! doesnt matter about how many sellers...the point being to make one purchase to that level takes either guts,stupidity or MAYBE a little bit of inside knowledge........I'm suggesting the latter.

Are you on the PEB Train GR8DAY?

[GR8DAY]

Are you on the PEB Train GR8DAY?

...yep but NOT driving it Dej!

[Dej]

...yep but NOT driving it Dej!

Guess we can rule out it wasnt you who bought the 333,333 parcel the other day then ;)

[Minerbarejet]

Heres hoping PEB stands for Price / Earnings Blowout. :)

[GR8DAY]

Guess we can rule out it wasnt you who bought the 333,333 parcel the other day then ;)

......yes you can safely do that mate (or matess?)........I wish, but after having banked some seriously good profits from PEB I got carried away at 75c again and so Im now sitting on a loss (albeit small compared to my profits).....so Im "hand-sitting" watching and waiting for the next spike upwards.......maybe tomorrow ah??

[Xerof]

Hancocks, expecting you to sidle up to the Sales Director at the after-match function, and report on the juicy snippets though

:):)

A good parcel snuck out at 58 earlier, before being taken up to 59 again. Certainly yesterdays sudden enthusiasm bought out more sellers than buyers.

I keep nibbling away under 60, but am wary of the distribution going on

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I keep nibbling away under 60, but am wary of the distribution going on

Bare in mind that a lot of sellers had withdrawn their orders at 60 cents to ensure that they didn't scare the buyers. Naturally they were going to put their orders back in once the SP hit 60 cents again. OBV has shown a slight sell down in the last couple of months, but certainly nothing major. It has spiked upwards in the last few days.

If there is major good news tomorrow, then I wouldn't be surprised to see PEB at 80-90 cents within a week. I'm sure many traders have had major success with PEB before and will push it far again if they see the opportunity. If there isn't anything major announced, then I guess it's just business as usual :).

[etrader]

Looking at the PEB approach they undersell what they are doing ie not hype -my view is they will come out with the facts of what they have achieved in the states so far would only expect tiny revenue but if the updates come on who they align themselves with to date and the level of client base those firms have it will give us an indication of their traction.

We would expect updates on products near to market also to stimulate interest.

I await with interest

[Dentie]

Hope all you PEB fans attending today's AGM have a great time in Dunedin. I attended last year's but not this year unfortunately. Let's hope the news is as encouraging and "on target" as it was this time last year.

Enjoy yourselves!!

[Dej]

We will all be interested to hear how it goes.

[Minerbarejet]

no leaks so far - must be a tight ship they are running.:)

[GR8DAY]

Will let you know general tone and update later, I'm usually one of the last to leave, I have a few wee questions.


.......ask some BIG ones too Hancocks!!.....(like when can we expect our first divi, haha LOL)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I suspect that the SP has been stagnant as most fund managers want to see what the US progress is like before they adjust their holdings accordingly. Hope they do update us on how it is going (although it is still extremely early in the scheme of things), although if they don't I'm sure the mood or tone of the meeting will give enough away.

[Xerof]

I have a few wee questions.

Urin the right place to ask them

:t_up:

[GR8DAY]

Urin the right place to ask them

:t_up:

....not too shabby Xerof. Im just a little peed off I cudnt make it to the AGM.http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon9.png

[Minerbarejet]

probably hoping for the instos to dive in. :)

[Whipmoney]

probably hoping for the instos to dive in. :)

Sellers also coming in at 0.58..

[blakecb]

We need a ST member live tweeting from the AGM aye....will be watching the price very carefully over the next hour!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

We need a ST member live tweeting from the AGM aye....will be watching the price very carefully over the next hour!

Agree! I'm surprised so few companies live stream their AGM's, it would be quite simple and cheap and would be fantastic for shareholders.

[Minerbarejet]

let the games begin - good luck guys

[baller18]

Do you guys expect the AGM to go well?

[Minerbarejet]

yes IMHO and would expect things to be really humming this time next year if it is a positive outlook

[blakecb]

Well the AGM is yet to provide confidence to the market:

Buyers - 38,743 @ 57cps and under / Sellers - 818,539 @ 58cps and over

Although one of the sellers is 250k at $1.20, so that portion can't really be taken into account so much.

[pierre]

I'd like to think the 250k seller will achieve his sale late today or perhaps in early trading tomorrow .....lol.

[Whipmoney]

Somebody bought 20k shares @ 58cents from a limit seller during the AGM and no other sellers nor additional sell-side depth built during this time so that's better than nothing :)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I'd like to think the 250k seller will achieve his sale late today or perhaps in early trading tomorrow .....lol.

Wouldn't that be great. Or maybe it'll go the other way and the buyer at 5 cents will have his order filled? Haha.

[Minerbarejet]

if you look at the depth - the way they are stacked up looks like a lighthouse - is this an omen:eek2::eek2::scared::)
on the sell side

[pierre]

True - but now there's a seller at 135!

[Balance]

if you look at the depth - the way they are stacked up looks like a lighthouse - is this an omen:eek2::eek2::scared::)
on the sell side

Relax - I remember sellers stacked up at $4.00 in Diligent prior to their quarterly report in Nov last year.

They got taken out and the sp went to $4.80 after that.

[AndyLP]

Pacific Edge didn't present anything particularly new at the AGM. No sales guidance past the 100mil 5 year target. Darling did talk about a collection of urologists they "expected to bring on board soon" in the US.

Its just all systems go really, Darling responded to a question about sales staff that he expected to have 20 sales staff in the US alone when things hit "full noise."

Will have a better expectation of where they are on the growth curve by the end of the year.

Cheers.

[NZSilver]

Thanks Andy, nothing to send price skyrocketing yet, steady as she goes.

[Microsloth]

Meeting got off to slow start,


was packed small seminar room had to bring in extra seats at last moment.

No sound on PowerPoint, 20 mins of waiting for sound. almost felt sorry for them.

No new news, recap of year, outlook good but no sales / numbers yet. Cranking up US sales force etc.

2014 will be the year, End of 2013 should have produced initial US sales.

Talking to more DHB's who see CX as way of saving money by its being more accurate and cheaper than full clinical testing they do now on suspected cases .

I like PEB story just need to see some sales before I invest any more in their potential, definitely not selling.

ODT reporter / photog there so check tomorrows ODT for more detail.

[Minerbarejet]

thanks for the information guys and guyesses- anything re nz aus or spain sales?

[MAC]

I agree, there was no substantially new news from what has previously been presented. It seemed to be an AGM for providing confidence, and I thought that the sales strategy presented earlier in the year was confidently affirmed.

There we're four hybrid products of cxbladder presented to accommodate 8 prospective applications up from 4 identified earlier in 2012.

David Darling advised that PEB are still "on track" in meeting the $100M rev target in year five. He reaffirmed his previous position that we will receive sales advice "later in the year".

He stressed the high revenue margins per sale and said it was just a matter of getting lots of tests performed. He also suggested though that the US price point may be US$550 which I understand to be at the lower end of the previously advised range of 550 to 630, I've used 550 in my modelling so no impact for me.

I was left with no specific reason to doubt that PEB will go forth as planned.

I'm looking forward to the half year report now and suspect that the market may now start to price in the forward sales curve as we approach HY14 reporting in 3 months time.

[barney]

As others have mentioned things seem to be on track. David Darling commented that signing up one of the big US lugs could be a big change for the company.
Hopefully they sign one up soon, plus some more DHB 's.
Some interesting comment regarding any possible takeover bid. Defiantly not signalled but I got the impression that if one did come it would not be a total suprise.

[baller18]

I will wait for my buy then :D, no hurry to get in at the moment.
Thanks so much guys!!!

[MAC]

David Darling explained that each US LUG was larger than all the NZ DHB's combined, he seemed genuinely excited by the prospect of a LUG sign up, anyone recall his exact words, it would be a 'ground shaker' or something.

Anyway, I guess that it could happen at any time, but his sudden burst of energy whilst he was explaining it made me consider that it could possibly be sooner rather than later ?.

[Minerbarejet]

thanks to everyone for the detailed feedbacks - almost like being there:)

[Dentie]

thanks to everyone for the detailed feedbacks - almost like being there:)

I agree - thank you all for the update.

[karen1]

Hancocks,

For one who doesn't post a lot, you always write something worthwhile reading! Thank you for a comprehensive report on today's meeting.

Like you, I am comfortable with David Darling not giving financial projections, with the nature of this business in particular, perhaps the less made public, the better.

[robbo24]

If discussions at the AGM were not doom and gloom then just keep doing what you're doing.

[skid]

Well guys ,with all due respect ,after the big ramp up to the AGM its still ''steady as she goes"
I believe this is a good company but personally think the 'getting ready to take off like a rocket' is not the case here,...anymore.IMHO its will be a slow process,until hopefully it will finally get to a slow,but good growth phase.
After the initial ''take off'' phase driven by projected potential it certainly appears to be settling in for the long haul.Everyone would like to see another Ryman Health type chart and heres hoping,but patience is virtue as they say.

[CJ]

Well guys ,with all due respect ,after the big ramp up to the AGM its still ''steady as she goes"
I believe this is a good company but personally think the 'getting ready to take off like a rocket' is not the case here,...anymore.IMHO its will be a slow process,until hopefully it will finally get to a slow,but good growth phase.
After the initial ''take off'' phase driven by projected potential it certainly appears to be settling in for the long haul.Everyone would like to see another Ryman Health type chart and heres hoping,but patience is virtue as they say.0 to $100m in Revenue in 5 years isn't exactly slow. Would almost compete with XRO if you ignore all the years it's taken them to get started.

The only difference in my mind is XRO is lead by an entrepreneur/salesman and the other is lead by conservative scientists.

It they do sign up an American health Board, its all go.

[Balance]

Good summary in ODT this morning .

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/269976/pacific-edge-100m-forecast

[Dentie]

Given my "learner" status, I have a question please for those with better knowledge...

It appears from David's comments that a buyout from some big company could well be considered by the board in the future. He added it would be considered in what is best for the shareholders. For me, I would like to see the SP get to say, $3 or $4 before I released my holding and am quite patient for that to occur (even adding to my position along the way). How would a buyout affect my aspirations please? What are the different options and/or scenarios? Do I get any say or do they just swallow my shares when they buy us out?

Many thanks in advance.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Sounds like a buyout really is on the cards then if he was talking about it. And look at the last sentence in the ODT:


After the meeting, he said one unidentified pharmaceutical company had approached the board and, had it not been for the global financial crisis, might have gone on to consider a buyout offer, Mr Darling said.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Given my "learner" status, I have a question please for those with better knowledge...

It appears from David's comments that a buyout from some big company could well be considered by the board in the future. He added it would be considered in what is best for the shareholders. For me, I would like to see the SP get to say, $3 or $4 before I released my holding and am quite patient for that to occur (even adding to my position along the way). How would a buyout affect my aspirations please? What are the different options and/or scenarios? Do I get any say or do they just swallow my shares when they buy us out?

Many thanks in advance.

You can decline the offer if you want to and your shares will be safe. If the company buying out gets over 90% acceptance however, you are then forced to sell your shares to them at the dictated price.

[Iolite]

It might just be the wording that is confusing me but I'm not sure you've quite got this bit correct. For the most part DHBs don't pay GPs in NZ. GPs get their money from PHOs (http://www.everybody.co.nz/page-ba4b6fbe-5420-468e-90a4-0d6f1df95cae.aspx) and in part from co-payments from their patients. Therefore in that sense the rationale that DHBs would have the power of money over the GPs to force them to get their patients to take the CxBladder test before referring to secondary care would appear ill founded.


According to this Ministry of Health Website (http://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/primary-health-care/about-primary-health-organisations) PHOs are funded by the DHBs, so probably the DHBs can dictate (or at least strongly influence) what tests should be used through the PHOs.

In addition, and this is a little bit speculative on my part (I'm basing it on conversations I have had in the past with a GP friend), if a GP wanted to refer a patient to a urologist, either in the private system or through the public hospitals, the urologist or hospital consultant could refuse to take the patient if they thought there was insufficient evidence of a problem requiring specialist private care or admittance to hospital, eg, bladder cancer. It is likely that they could insist that a GP have a particular test performed before they would take over the patient's care.

Also, GPs usually follow guidelines issued by BPAC (http://www.bpac.org.nz/Default.aspx) which "has held contracts for nationwide programmes with PHARMAC, DHB Shared Services (formerly DHBNZ), Ministry of Health, individual DHBs and PHOs and other healthcare organisations" (from the BPAC website (http://www.bpac.org.nz/AboutUs.aspx)). So if a DHB or the MOH contract BPAC to create and issue guidelines to the GPs, then the GPs are likely to follow the guidelines.

So... taking these points into consideration, I think if a particular DHB decides the CxBladder test is the way to go, then they can put considerable pressure on all GP practices within their region to use it.

[Dentie]

You can decline the offer if you want to and your shares will be safe. If the company buying out gets over 90% acceptance however, you are then forced to sell your shares to them at the dictated price.

Thank you very much Johnny, that gives me some room for hope. I would hate to see the potential for PEB get sold out from under us before their potential starts to get realised. Doesn't seem right that us current shareholders support the company through their development and early growth phase - only to be deprived of some real capital growth in the SP by someone with bigger pockets that wasn't prepared to be there in the "hard knuckle" times.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Thank you very much Johnny, that gives me some room for hope. I would hate to see the potential for PEB get sold out from under us before their potential starts to get realised. Doesn't seem right that us current shareholders support the company through their development and early growth phase - only to be deprived of some real capital growth in the SP by someone with bigger pockets that wasn't prepared to be there in the "hard knuckle" times.

Very true. Any takeover bid made now would need to be well over $1 if they wanted any chance of getting 90% I suspect. Takeovers in this sector do make a lot of sense in terms of labs and having sales people selling multiple products however.

[CJ]

You can decline the offer if you want to and your shares will be safe. If the company buying out gets over 90% acceptance however, you are then forced to sell your shares to them at the dictated price.If they get over 90% and force you to sell, you can request a independent valuation if you dont think the price offered is fair.


There is no way on God's green earth that a takeover offer at $1 would be accepted by 90% of shareholders given the enormous value of the intellectual property in the pipeline. They would be lucky to get 20% of shareholders to agree at that price.Unlikely an offer would be more than 2 the current price so it could be a stale-mate as far as a takeover goes.

[Minerbarejet]

There is no way on God's green earth that a takeover offer at $1 would be accepted by 90% of shareholders given the enormous value of the intellectual property in the pipeline. They would be lucky to get 20% of shareholders to agree at that price. This is our collective greatest fear - is there any way to make it compulsory for PEB shareholders to belong to the Sharetrader Forum:)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

There is no way on God's green earth that a takeover offer at $1 would be accepted by 90% of shareholders given the enormous value of the intellectual property in the pipeline. They would be lucky to get 20% of shareholders to agree at that price.

100% agree. Hence why I said well over ;)

[Dentie]

100% agree. Hence why I said well over ;)

Thanks again Johnny, Major and Sparky ....

Now I just gotta figure away to get 11%!!

[baller18]

I see a downtrend forming... if it breaks through 0.55

[Xerof]

You 'imagine' you see a downtrend forming....it doesn't form until it does.....:sleep:

[baller18]

Thanks baller18. Very helpful.

EDIT (I'm being sarcastic)
Yes I know ur being sarcastic sparky lol!

[baller18]

You 'imagine' you see a downtrend forming....it doesn't form until it does.....:sleep:
Predicting "if" it goes below 55 cents, because the Bollinger bands are so contracted, any move, any breakout is a sign of direction it'll be heading..

[blobbles]

There is no way on God's green earth that a takeover offer at $1 would be accepted by 90% of shareholders given the enormous value of the intellectual property in the pipeline. They would be lucky to get 20% of shareholders to agree at that price.


100% agree. Hence why I said well over ;)

If a buyout offer of $10 a share or above comes in I would think about it, otherwise, dreaming!

[Minerbarejet]

Predicting "if" it goes below 55 cents, because the Bollinger bands are contracted so move, any breakout is a sign of direction it'll be heading.. sorry - do you mean much instead of move?

[baller18]

sorry - do you mean much instead of move?

Yup, edited my post, just right before you posted..

[Dentie]

If a buyout offer of $10 a share or above comes in I would think about it, otherwise, dreaming!

Nice one blobbles...let's hope a lot of other shareholders feel the same

[Minerbarejet]

lol, I think takeover talk is a bit premature to say the least. Like NZO actually striking oil or the Robinson's putting their own personal money into Rakon, let's just take it one step at a time and see if it ever happens...Agreed. not much of a prospect if they arent making money ATM and conversely if there is such an offer now there would be even more reason to hang on.

[robbo24]

Thanks baller18. Very helpful.

Go easy on him Sparky - I've watched his moves on the Sharetrader forum and your sarcasm is the equivalent of stepping on an ant.... hahaha

[baller18]

Go easy on him Sparky - I've watched his moves on the Sharetrader forum and your sarcasm is the equivalent of stepping on an ant.... hahaha

lol sad... im just trying to mingle... :)

[robbo24]

lol sad... im just trying to mingle... :)

Ok, so, TA side then, do you think the information contained in the meeting changes anything baller18? Do you see any difference in the fundamentals? Were you hoping for big news and some action on the SP? What are your thoughts?

[baller18]

Ok, so, TA side then, do you think the information contained in the meeting changes anything baller18? Do you see any difference in the fundamentals? Were you hoping for big news and some action on the SP? What are your thoughts?
Nope, from the information provided by members and the AGM report nothing has changed, and definitely the fundamentals have not changed at all.
I didn't think there would be a big change in SP, it'll need sales to go through for some change in sp.
I am looking to buy in as well.. :D

[blakecb]

Ok, so, TA side then, do you think the information contained in the meeting changes anything baller18? Do you see any difference in the fundamentals? Were you hoping for big news and some action on the SP? What are your thoughts?

My thoughts are that baller's original comment is correct and we could see a move downward if 55cps is broken (it's also the MA200). I keep hearing the 'fundamentals' argument over and over on this forum even as share prices drop (read the DIL thread as it went about losing 40% of its value). Yes you need good fundamentals but you also need positive market sentiment. Maybe the market was expecting some sales data and that expectation has not been met?

I, like Baller, will be waiting and watching with interest, but I definitely won't be buying until sentiment becomes positive and an uptrend begins. Why swim against the market when you can swim with it? Time your buys and your sells on your good FA companies with a little bit of TA.

[baller18]

yes, that's what I think too, after learning from the Dil thread.
FA & TA both have their valid points, but when combining FA + TA = RA

[benjitara]

While I look at some TA I think the whole TA VS FA argument can be summed up by the concept of OPPORTUNITY COST TA traders concept of opportunity cost is obviously built in to their investment strategy where as FA investors tend to be more defined by results. My overall thoughts would be a good company will cause more anxiety to a TA trader than a FA. I'm in for the long haul with PEB and WILL buy in on a downward swing funds permitting.
DISC My first buy in at 22c

[AndyLP]

Odds are probably good you'll get your shot between now and the half year report in December. Imagine 4 months is a long time to hold for many people without news.
Does anyone know if you can get stats on how many current shareholders have been holding for say, longer than a year?

[baller18]

54 cents...
Downtrend is forming...
Mon will be interesting

[robbo24]

Seems like someone is keen to keep the price down. Better hope that downtrend doesn't start, as it will last until December when we next hear news!

Bring on the downtrend I say!!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

54 cents is a key resistance point, having bounced off it several times before. Lets see if it'll bring the buyers out on Monday or whether we will be heading down further.

[baller18]

54 cents is a key resistance point, having bounced off it several times before. Lets see if it'll bring the buyers out on Monday or whether we will be heading down further.

Yup Monday will be very interesting...

[Minerbarejet]

It looks like its going to be a long 4 months -think Ill go find a cave somewhere.

[forest]

lol, I think takeover talk is a bit premature to say the least. Like NZO actually striking oil or the Robinson's putting their own personal money into Rakon, let's just take it one step at a time and see if it ever happens...

Moosie from what I understood at the AGM PEB has already been approached so a take over or partial sale of some of their IP might be sooner then we think. But regardless this company has enormous potential.

I would like to see share traders serporting PEB because it would be disappointing if it was bought out by a oversees company before its value is realised.

[RTM]

Yeah....but odds were reasonable. Only three options....down, stay the same and up.
Didn't seem to be any reason that I have seen to go up.
So 50% chance ! :-). Well done Baller, buy a lotto ticket.


So with all the grief baller was given he seems to have been on the money huh!

[Xerof]

So with all the grief baller was given he seems to have been on the money huh!

no longer imagination, eh baller.

weekly close below 200ma, also broken down out of the very extended triangle, so if follows through next week, will target 40/45.

no volume of note so far below 55 though, so Monday should determine whether it starts a run down.

Was wary of the capping, and it must be remembered the VAST majority of holders are sitting on very good profits, so would be easy for profit-taking to take hold.

perhaps it was the very amateur Powerpoint presentation that tipped a few out today, lol

[CJ]

It's just traders selling out who were hoping for Great news from the AGM which did come.

For the long term investors, the Good news from the AGM is they re confirmed $100m revenue within 5 years. Why would you sell.

Disc: looking to buy more. Can a TA tell this FA when he should buy.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Disc: looking to buy more. Can a TA tell this FA when he should buy.

A break of 61 cents if you were a trader playing it safe. Buying on fundamentals I would say a bounce off 54 would be a buy in my books.

[baller18]

Yeah mate I know. It just seemed he unfairly got given a bit of crap when the same kind of comments are made all over this forum without the same negative reaction.
Thanks tummeric, it was only a suggestion and I just wanted to hear what other people's thoughts were..
Im a newbie, and do not have the experience of other members.. I was just really interested to see what other people's opinions were and were not trying to come off the wrong way or anything... sighs...

[Minerbarejet]

It looks like its going to be a long 4 months -think Ill go find a cave somewhere. Just found one at NTL. Think Ill go ramp it up before the meeting on the 19th Sept, :)

[baller18]

Yeah....but odds were reasonable. Only three options....down, stay the same and up.
Didn't seem to be any reason that I have seen to go up.
So 50% chance ! :-). Well done Baller, buy a lotto ticket.

I was just trying to hear other people's thoughts, that was all.
I would appreciate constructive feedback, as a newbie, I am still learning so I always post what is on my mind.
Was not meant to offend anyone....
Apologies...

[baller18]

Hey SPC,

No need to apologise, you have always responded to my messages and I take it to the chin for some of the messages I have posted.
Thanks everyone, I really love this forum :D

[MAC]

At $0.54 the SP is flat for the year to date and has had a four month period of stability. This says to me that the market fairly values PEB, given present risks, at between $0.54 and $0.61. Like others I have a risk free valuation of twice that. The greatest risk being ‘saleability’ followed by technology risk.

All that is required to substantially de-risk this company and re-rate the SP is a sales catalyst. With the sales team now active in the US, such an announcement is entirely likely between now and HY14, and this could happen at any time.

With three months to reporting in November, what should we expect to see in terms of added value, and de-risking, between now and then ?

a) An improvement in NZ & Australian sales.
b) First US sales (Q2 1st July through 30th September).
c) Potentially, quite likely, further DHB and LUG sign up’s.
d) Maybe further patent development.
e) A remote possibility of a takeover offer.

I’d certainly rather be in than out given the above equation, and I can imagine that those selling at this time may very well look back with some regret. There can be too much stress sitting on the side line trying to be oh so cute with the timing and potentially missing out.

PEB is a very low liquidity stock and it could take off very quickly leaving you at the station gobsmacked if you’re not already on board when that announcement lands.

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/269976/pacific-edge-100m-forecast

[Minerbarejet]

thanks for that Mac , a good sensible analysis. Get in, get your shares set your exit and wait. Never mind all this cent here or there stuff. It will all seem a bit gormless when it all comes together in the very near future.
Think of it as a retirement fund and put it away for a rainy day
Cheers from the NTL cave.:)

[Dej]

thanks for that Mac , a good sensible analysis. Get in, get your shares set your exit and wait. Never mind all this cent here or there stuff. It will all seem a bit gormless when it all comes together in the very near future.
Think of it as a retirement fund and put it away for a rainy day
Cheers from the NTL cave.:)

Oh I get it now... :t_up: :p

[skid]

Well guys ,with all due respect ,after the big ramp up to the AGM its still ''steady as she goes"
I believe this is a good company but personally think the 'getting ready to take off like a rocket' is not the case here,...anymore.IMHO its will be a slow process,until hopefully it will finally get to a slow,but good growth phase.
After the initial ''take off'' phase driven by projected potential it certainly appears to be settling in for the long haul.Everyone would like to see another Ryman Health type chart and heres hoping,but patience is virtue as they say.

I stand corrected,only the rocket went in the wrong direction--it will be interesting to see if it settles back around the 60 level and then slowly grows

[baller18]

I stand corrected,only the rocket went in the wrong direction--it will be interesting to see if it settles back around the 60 level and then slowly grows
Well yes, if it bounces back to the support of 55 cents.
if it doesn't and it breaks through the support, then we will be seeing a downtrend forming, as the bollinger bands are telling us a trend is forming.
my five cents

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I personally very much doubt that a downtrend will form here. Whilst I follow the technicals closely, relying on them is very risky for PEB as there are always false signals (you need to wait for strong buy signals if trading). I remember a Bolly squeeze in Feb, it broke the lower band, went down to 54, then surged to 79 cents. Then there was the descending triangle that turned into absolutely nothing. Then there are the numerous "fake" breakouts that I believe a few here have been caught out by (Moosie?).

It has only been pushed this low due to traders that bought before the AGM, expecting a run, closing their positions (a good lesson in that - buying before announcements is risky as quite often they are very good but the SP still goes down. I think that's one of that Clown's tips). Buyers will see current levels as cheap and act according. Most sellers are also reluctant to go below 60 cents.

Mark my words, it will bounce off 54 cents.*

*Note, the SP usually does the opposite of what I say.

[baller18]

I personally very much doubt that a downtrend will form here. Whilst I follow the technicals closely, relying on them is very risky for PEB as there are always false signals (you need to wait for strong buy signals if trading). I remember a Bolly squeeze in Feb, it broke the lower band, went down to 54, then surged to 79 cents. Then there was the descending triangle that turned into absolutely nothing. Then there are the numerous "fake" breakouts that I believe a few here have been caught out by (Moosie?).

It has only been pushed this low due to traders that bought before the AGM, expecting a run, closing their positions (a good lesson in that - buying before announcements is risky as quite often they are very good but the SP still goes down. I think that's one of that Clown's tips). Buyers will see current levels as cheap and act according. Most sellers are also reluctant to go below 60 cents.

Mark my words, it will bounce off 54 cents.*

*Note, the SP usually does the opposite of what I say.
thanks heaps Johnny the horse, much appreciated, will be keeping an close eye.

[blakecb]

Yeah hopefully for holders it will be a fake breakout from the triangle and bounce off support on Monday as Johnny suggests. If not, trouble looms, although once the breakout is confirmed there may be a bounce that allows others to exit. RSI and DMS have both gone negative on the stock. It's too risky for me, so I've gotten out.

[Dentie]

Sorry to hear you have left us Blake - due to the negative look of the RSI & DMS (?). Just because the RSI is negative doesn't necessarily mean the fundamentals of the firm are also negative. Does this mean you are a "trader"?

Without being smart ... at what point would you get back in?

[Minerbarejet]

haha yes I got caught out twice, but I am still in positive territory from trading PEB over the past year or so. hopefully I will join you all again one day, and not on the short side either!
Aha! If I follow this thread correctly then the moose is somebody called Blake not Sorenson. Back to the cave!:)

[Minerbarejet]

lol,yes, back to the cave indeed Major!
:lol::lol::lol::lol::DMoosie you are an absolute crackup. Trying that one on us and you shot yourself in the foot by answering on the wrong handle. Nice one mate.

[Minerbarejet]

lol, you know what to do when I say something, DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE!

On that note, buy DIL!

(PEB is a good long-termer though) ;)
DIL is too far down the road for me, think I will just stick with PEB, should overtake DIL about 2016 which is about 4.5 months away by my abacus and calculations based on longevity.:)

[blakecb]

Sorry to hear you have left us Blake - due to the negative look of the RSI & DMS (?). Just because the RSI is negative doesn't necessarily mean the fundamentals of the firm are also negative. Does this mean you are a "trader"?

Without being smart ... at what point would you get back in?

A few things were concerning me - I didn't like the development of that rival odour test that provides a diagnosis in 30 minutes - I know it is a lot further behind in terms of development but it is a concern. I don't really want to get in an argument about that, because it is not my primary reason for exiting.

I set myself rules by which I trade, and a breakout from a triangle pattern along with the negative reads on RSI and DMS count as a sell point for me. The thing that could of held me back is that the stock is not 'trending' at present, but my feeling was to sell.

I would return if the breakout was fake and then it broke to the upside - so probably at about 61-2 cents all things considered. Or if it drops somewhat lower on this breakout and I see a reversal occur, then I would also come back in. Or, of course, on positive company news.

As to whether I am a 'trader' or an 'investor' - I would probably say both. I don't trade in companies I don't like the fundamentals of, and from that perspective I deeply value all the contributions and additional perspectives offered on this forum from the fundamental people...but once I've found a company I like, I trade based on market confidence, sentiment, smart money, momentum, etc....in other words...the charts.

[blakecb]

:lol::lol::lol::lol::DMoosie you are an absolute crackup. Trying that one on us and you shot yourself in the foot by answering on the wrong handle. Nice one mate.

Just to be clear....Moosie and I are two different people... I'm sure you would recognise that from the varying content of the posts! :):t_up:

[benjitara]

I can see your point of view Blake. I'm not worried about rivals at the moment. PEB still appears to have a quiet confidence about having their ducks in a orderly row. The presentation was disappointing in it's layout (almost reminded me of BLIS which isn't a good look) but I've chosen to largely ignore that and hope that they were so motivated about the product that they didn't care about the powerpoint! haha. I also think they have the right people on the ground so far in the USA and they are the ones that are going to add the value to the company not the people involved so far .

[Minerbarejet]

Just to be clear....Moosie and I are two different people... I'm sure you would recognise that from the varying content of the posts! :):t_up:Posts 2016,2017,2018 certainly give me the impression that you could be an altar ego as I cant see the reason for moosies post.
Having said that- apologies to all concerned, jumping to conclusions is a habit of mine.:blink:
noah fence and keep up the posts.:)

[Dentie]

A few things were concerning me - I didn't like the development of that rival odour test that provides a diagnosis in 30 minutes - I know it is a lot further behind in terms of development but it is a concern. I don't really want to get in an argument about that, because it is not my primary reason for exiting.

I set myself rules by which I trade, and a breakout from a triangle pattern along with the negative reads on RSI and DMS count as a sell point for me. The thing that could of held me back is that the stock is not 'trending' at present, but my feeling was to sell.

I would return if the breakout was fake and then it broke to the upside - so probably at about 61-2 cents all things considered. Or if it drops somewhat lower on this breakout and I see a reversal occur, then I would also come back in. Or, of course, on positive company news.

As to whether I am a 'trader' or an 'investor' - I would probably say both. I don't trade in companies I don't like the fundamentals of, and from that perspective I deeply value all the contributions and additional perspectives offered on this forum from the fundamental people...but once I've found a company I like, I trade based on market confidence, sentiment, smart money, momentum, etc....in other words...the charts.

Thanks for that - always good to get the perspective of others. I'm also not too worried about competitors at this point ...always good to be first to the market though, which seems a big enough pond for others. Very seldom possible to be the only fish in the fish bowl - its only a matter of time before the slower ones start to compete.

I have a good holding in PEB and have had for a good couple of years (ave 24c) but have always had a long term perspective for this stock. For me, it is too risky to eject - given how the SP can turn on a dime as I believe any good news (eg - sales report) will result in a quick upsurge. David is still confident of his $100m revenue in 5 yrs and I sense there are bigger funds just waiting for sales figures or DHB/LUG confirmation etc and they will be joining us in a flash. The smart money has been in for ages.

I'm happy to wait & see for now .... and of course am always hopeful of a good yield. I know some say a takeover is unlikely, but that remains my main concern at this point. As soon as the big money realises the potential of a firm like PEB (especially with its ongoing pipeline)... it won't be able to resist.

Thanks again Blake, hope to see you back with us soon.

[MAC]

Quite right Hancocks, PEB have a such a comprehensive plan in place we have all been twitching to see it role out, but we must look forward and it will start to do so over the next few months.

For those interested the US sales strategy can be found here;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/176737.pdf

[MAC]

And, of course let’s not forget that forward sales curve up toward $100M in gross revenue.

I can well imagine that 9,128 cxbladder sales in FY14 is entirely achievable, the user programmes alone will contribute much of that.

4744

[Dentie]

And, of course let’s not forget that forward sales curve up toward $100M in gross revenue.

I can well imagine that 9,128 cxbladder sales in FY14 is entirely achievable, the user programmes alone will contribute much of that.

4744

It's the potential market penetration that has me feeling positive. A good product, a good price, a good sales force = a good outcome for everyone!

[CJ]

And, of course let’s not forget that forward sales curve up toward $100M in gross revenue.Based on that graphic, it is $100m gross profit, not gross revenue. They keep reaffirming this guidance which is positive, even if they dont give current numbers.

[MAC]

Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of fund managers are looking at this opportunity as a five year entry point.

[nextbigthing]

Very much so. I think we are looking at a transition point for funds whereby the longer-term ones are cashing in on their 5+ year investment while others are taking up the position. This has been seen by the seller(s) capping at 60 cents. 50 cents is a nice, clear cut entry point and I can't see any reason why it should break this level. If it does, 45 is up next and that is strong support.

Starting to sound like the DIL thread Moosie ;)

[Minerbarejet]

Haha, guess I better shutup then before I spook everyone into selling! :eek2:
Nah, keep it up moosie I'm bottom feeding.

[baller18]

now I just have to decide when to buy...

[baller18]

yup definitely a buyers market out there, 50 cent just got filled, wouldn't be surprised if it got to 45 cents today

[blobbles]

Wow, I smell a great chance to top up here! SP for these guys often doesn't make sense, we get told that the company is on track for making 100m in a few years, that everything is as expected, no negative announcements and the SP drops by 15%?? I smell opportunity...

Hopefully we will see one or two NZ DHB's sign up in a big way here, their results would be analysed closely by the American LUG's I suspect.

I agree with others how the ppt looked pretty unprofessional, like it was done in the plane by David on his way back from America! To me thats still a sign of someone more interested in driving their product sales in real terms instead of selling it to investors.

Very happy to be holding (and topping up) still :-)

[blakecb]

Wow, I smell a great chance to top up here! SP for these guys often doesn't make sense, we get told that the company is on track for making 100m in a few years, that everything is as expected, no negative announcements and the SP drops by 15%?? I smell opportunity...

Hopefully we will see one or two NZ DHB's sign up in a big way here, their results would be analysed closely by the American LUG's I suspect.

I agree with others how the ppt looked pretty unprofessional, like it was done in the plane by David on his way back from America! To me thats still a sign of someone more interested in driving their product sales in real terms instead of selling it to investors.

Very happy to be holding (and topping up) still :-)

Wow.... I think it is crazy to be 'topping up' - it is in the middle of a strong breakout to the down side. All the 'topping up' may push it back up to the new resistance line of the breakout, but that will more than likely just be a bounce before continuing on its new trend (down!).

The time to top up is when it bottoms out, reverses, and heads back up again.

There must be a peace pipe I'm not smoking or something - a 100 million in 5 years with no, as of yet, sales data...?? I guess if the CEO says so then it must be true....

[barney]

It seems there may have been a bit of unrealistic expectation regarding what might have been announced at the agm.

As has been mentioned on this thread previously, getting GP's and urologists to change their current practices and to adopt cxbladder will take some time, probably longer than expected. They are a conservative bunch and rightly so when it comes to adopting new technologies. They will need to be certain that cxbladder can do what the company says it can do and provide a positve step change to justify adopting a new diagnostic tool.

Hence the comments at the meeting regarding signifigant pre-purchase dissonance regarding uptake by clinicians and physicians. But the reassuring thing for me was the setting up of the user program so clinicans can test drive the test and see for themselves how good it is. The user program seems to be a success as evidenced by the blinded trials carried out by the DHB's in NZ. Further user programs are being carried out and this is where the sales will flow from, especially in the US. As a result of carrying out the user programs I would expect sales to really start to pick up next year after a lot of these programs are completed. I would'nt be expecting some great sales numbers before then.

The good thing about this is that it does act as a barrier to any future competition. As David Darling mentioned, competition will come but there is a relatively long lead in time for anyone else to get a product to market, as we are seeing.

David also made the comment that one of the large shareholders had made a couple of visits to the lab in Hershey to check things out for themselves and they seemed to be happy with what they saw. Although the shareprice has come back since the meeting, I would be more concerned if some of the larger shareholders were selling out at this point. So far we don't see that and the turnover is on fairly low volumes.

Over the next few months I think we will see some more deals with DHB's and the signing up of some of the urological organisations in the US. That's what will most likely give the shareprice some support.

All in all I thought it was a good meeting and although progress is slower that some might like, we are definitely heading in the right direction.

[blobbles]

Wow.... I think it is crazy to be 'topping up' - it is in the middle of a strong breakout to the down side. All the 'topping up' may push it back up to the new resistance line of the breakout, but that will more than likely just be a bounce before continuing on its new trend (down!).

The time to top up is when it bottoms out, reverses, and heads back up again.

There must be a peace pipe I'm not smoking or something - a 100 million in 5 years with no, as of yet, sales data...?? I guess if the CEO says so then it must be true....

The problem of course blakecb is knowing where the bottom is, where do you catch the falling knife?

For me, after looking at all the other options, I know CxBladder is a superior product that is cheaper and more accurate than its competition. They appear to have the right people in place to drive a superior product to market. They have lined up everything they need to sell it and we are simply in a waiting game for this to happen. While there may be political risks involved with getting the product to market, I can't see a situation where a health board is going to say "No, we don't want to use this better product for less money" in a time of economic belt tightening.

I believe in a few years this will be a very valuable share. So snapping up as many of them now at what will be a huge discount makes a lot of sense to me. I don't trade on technicals though, rather on management/company performance plus product and market potential.

[Dentie]

Some would say its crazy to buy, but if you genuinely believe the stock will be plus $2 in 18 months, does it really matter if your buy is 50c, 55c or 60c?

I know such a position is an anathema to traders who use technicals, but then, a fundamentalist would happily disregard short term charts and buy for the long term.

I would note blakecb is probably not a big reader of bladder cancer news, technologies in diagnostics, Pacific Edge itself and similar. He/she is more interested in what the charts say. That's fine - its a free country, but please don't project your ignorance of the company's fundamentals and the industry's position because you choose to disregard the huge amounts of information regarding the benefits of biomarkers in urine to discover cancer - and what someone is prepared to pay for it. There are plenty of people on this thread who have done their homework, and are patiently waiting.

Agree with you Sparky.

Also, with Blakecb's quote ... "There must be a peace pipe I'm not smoking or something - a 100 million in 5 years with no, as of yet, sales data...?? I guess if the CEO says so then it must be true....", I wonder if he/she has analysed the TA or FA of XRO?

[biker]

Wow, I smell a great chance to top up here! SP for these guys often doesn't make sense, we get told that the company is on track for making 100m in a few years, that everything is as expected, no negative announcements and the SP drops by 15%?? I smell opportunity...

Hopefully we will see one or two NZ DHB's sign up in a big way here, their results would be analysed closely by the American LUG's I suspect.

I agree with others how the ppt looked pretty unprofessional, like it was done in the plane by David on his way back from America! To me thats still a sign of someone more interested in driving their product sales in real terms instead of selling it to investors.

Very happy to be holding (and topping up) still :-)


Agree blobbles, and likewise.

[Xerof]

To extend that point a bit further - XRO's SP didn't really take off until they developed a history of growth in paying customers - I supsect the same will be the case for PEB.

exactly right turmeric IMO, I'm thinking that fact (no mention of any sales traction out of the AGM) is the catalyst for this selloff, pure and simple.

I have added today though, as this was also the case a week ago, and the fundamentals can be bought ~15% cheaper

[NZSilver]

topped up 51 cents, might go lower, might not. Everything seems to be lining up in terms of product, sales, markets etc. now hold and wait for news on sales. Riskvs reward is strongly in favour of reward.

[blakecb]

Some would say its crazy to buy, but if you genuinely believe the stock will be plus $2 in 18 months, does it really matter if your buy is 50c, 55c or 60c?

I know such a position is an anathema to traders who use technicals, but then, a fundamentalist would happily disregard short term charts and buy for the long term.

I would note blakecb is probably not a big reader of bladder cancer news, technologies in diagnostics, Pacific Edge itself and similar. He/she is more interested in what the charts say. That's fine - its a free country, but please don't project your ignorance of the company's fundamentals and the industry's position because you choose to disregard the huge amounts of information regarding the benefits of biomarkers in urine to discover cancer - and what someone is prepared to pay for it. There are plenty of people on this thread who have done their homework, and are patiently waiting.

I guess my comment was a bit hostile, so apologies on my part.

You may be surprised to hear Sparky that I've read every bit of bladder cancer news and article posted on this thread. While I've haven't done my own external research, the information and articles I've seen have provided me with a very good idea of what the company offers and the massive international potential of it for the diagnosis of bladder cancer. I did all of that before I initially bought into the company. I sold, as per a previous post, because it seemed clear to me that what has just happened would happen. I want a bit more certainty that the stock is on an upward trajectory before hanging on for the ride. I will undoubtedly get back into this stock, before it takes off to the moon, if I see it turn around and begin uptrending.

@ blobbles, there is no reason to try and catch the falling knife at all - there will be buy signals at the right time. You may miss the very bottom, but you wont buy and find it the hard way.

As for the comment on XRO...I like the software a lot, but would never buy into that company for a plethora of reasons I won't go into, no matter what TA or FA told me.

[winner69]

Blakecb ......you got into trouble eh .....big trouble I reckon

Good apology to the masses though .....unnecessary though

Suppose you are allowed to continue commenting now ....but please don't upset the apple cart

[Dentie]

Dentie, the comparison with Xero in terms of fundamentals only extends to profitability (and arguably very good products) - the big difference (which you seem to be overlooking) is XRO has a history of paying customers and customer numbers growth and PEB does not......YET;) From an FA point of view you must not neglect that!

To extend that point a bit further - XRO's SP didn't really take off until they developed a history of growth in paying customers - I supsect the same will be the case for PEB.


Thanks for another lesson Turmeric. I totally acknowledge that when it comes to XRO - you are the guru as I notice you sold at the absolute SP apex - about a month ago (& congrats on that!!). However, what has changed in the FA or TA that has made the SP plummet 15% in the last month or so?

I suspect PEB's current SP wouldn't be where it currently is if they had an entrepreneur running things - as opposed to more cautious Dr's/scientists etc.

To be clear - I am very happy with what PEB management is doing and how they are managing things.

[Balance]

I guess my comment was a bit hostile, so apologies on my part.

You may be surprised to hear Sparky that I've read every bit of bladder cancer news and article posted on this thread. While I've haven't done my own external research, the information and articles I've seen have provided me with a very good idea of what the company offers and the massive international potential of it for the diagnosis of bladder cancer. I did all of that before I initially bought into the company. I sold, as per a previous post, because it seemed clear to me that what has just happened would happen. I want a bit more certainty that the stock is on an upward trajectory before hanging on for the ride. I will undoubtedly get back into this stock, before it takes off to the moon, if I see it turn around and begin uptrending.

@ blobbles, there is no reason to try and catch the falling knife at all - there will be buy signals at the right time. You may miss the very bottom, but you wont buy and find it the hard way.

As for the comment on XRO...I like the software a lot, but would never buy into that company for a plethora of reasons I won't go into, no matter what TA or FA told me.

Keep the comments coming, Blakecb - this is what the forum is for.

Glad this is not the NZOG thread where dissenters are threatened! :D

[blobbles]

I guess my comment was a bit hostile, so apologies on my part.

You may be surprised to hear Sparky that I've read every bit of bladder cancer news and article posted on this thread. While I've haven't done my own external research, the information and articles I've seen have provided me with a very good idea of what the company offers and the massive international potential of it for the diagnosis of bladder cancer. I did all of that before I initially bought into the company. I sold, as per a previous post, because it seemed clear to me that what has just happened would happen. I want a bit more certainty that the stock is on an upward trajectory before hanging on for the ride. I will undoubtedly get back into this stock, before it takes off to the moon, if I see it turn around and begin uptrending.

@ blobbles, there is no reason to try and catch the falling knife at all - there will be buy signals at the right time. You may miss the very bottom, but you wont buy and find it the hard way.

As for the comment on XRO...I like the software a lot, but would never buy into that company for a plethora of reasons I won't go into, no matter what TA or FA told me.

No problem Blake - I think many of these disagreements on this forum appear because each person has their own ways to judge and assess future value. My outlook is always 2-10 years time, i.e. not short term yet many traders will work on daily/weekly/monthly assessments. As such, this can get up the nose of many traders who will often view positive comments as short term pumpers (because their TA is telling them the opposite of a comment) when in actuality we are just working on different time scales for investment return. So whenever I talk about Pacific Edge I am looking into the value of the stock 2 years out, not a month or two. I aren't looking at charts and TA or anything of the sort, my future value is based on market size, product/company quality... basically fundamentals of the company, not the ups and downs of the market.

Hey - maybe Sharetrader should colour peoples names according to their investment strategies - blue for short termers, green for mid termers and yellow for long termers. I don't mean to say all us long termers are yella bellies!

[blakecb]

No problem Blake - I think many of these disagreements on this forum appear because each person has their own ways to judge and assess future value. My outlook is always 2-10 years time, i.e. not short term yet many traders will work on daily/weekly/monthly assessments. As such, this can get up the nose of many traders who will often view positive comments as short term pumpers (because their TA is telling them the opposite of a comment) when in actuality we are just working on different time scales for investment return. So whenever I talk about Pacific Edge I am looking into the value of the stock 2 years out, not a month or two. I aren't looking at charts and TA or anything of the sort, my future value is based on market size, product/company quality... basically fundamentals of the company, not the ups and downs of the market.

Hey - maybe Sharetrader should colour peoples names according to their investment strategies - blue for short termers, green for mid termers and yellow for long termers. I don't mean to say all us long termers are yella bellies!

Thanks bobbles.

Yeah I'm not sure where I would sit in that, as I would hold a company indefinitely if the charts and fundamentals looked right (bear in mind charts do allow for volatility).

As a previous RAK investor, I learnt the hard way along with many on this forum, that a company can look to be one thing, and be a completely different beast all together. The reason I like TA is because it shows the feeling the market has towards a company and you can join in (or not) with that. As they say, "Make the trend your friend". I'm not comparing RAK to PEB! But rather just highlighting the principle that I would rather cut and run when I see a downtrend forming to minimise my risk... and then join in again when I see it is heading upward and the market has confidence in the company.

TA is about my buying and selling risk management once I have decided on a company I like. Chart patterns occur due to trading psychology which repeats itself over and over again. It really is amazing how frequently the charts repeat themselves and so why not use all the information at one's disposal. It is a lot of work learning TA, a huge amount in fact, but that's why this forum is great because we all do research in different areas (FA and TA) that hopefully empowers us all to make better decisions. Those pieces of work, like with PEB, will sometimes be in conflict. It is up to each person to decide how they resolve that. For me, I have sold and will look to buy back in when the charts tell me too (and will post that point on the forum). The only reason I'm at the PEB table in the first place is because of the work by the FA folk.

In other words, love and harmony to all.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Well would you look at that, it has closed on its strong support line of 54 cents... So the world hasn't ended after all (yet). Hopefully that's the bulk of the nervous nellies shaken out, or is it bit of a dead cat bounce? Hmm, I guess with a 1 year plus horizon it doesn't matter.

[MAC]

Well that was an eventful day in the world of cancer diagnostics.

Congratulations if you are a new investor and took advantage of today's ridiculously oversold conditions to buy into in a great company with years of forward growth ahead.

[baller18]

think a few more days then we'll really know where we at

[blakecb]

Well would you look at that, it has closed on its strong support line of 54 cents... So the world hasn't ended after all (yet). Hopefully that's the bulk of the nervous nellies shaken out, or is it bit of a dead cat bounce? Hmm, I guess with a 1 year plus horizon it doesn't matter.

My guess is that it is a bounce (see my post from yesterday)...may even go higher and test 56-7 cents, before eventually descending to around 45-7 cents. At that point it will consolidate for a while and hopefully something will give confidence back to the market to see a reversal....at which point I'll hopefully be on board, then off to the moon. Or if it disappoints (ie. missing sales data), it will continue its track down.

I attach a pretty picture fyi. One thing I don't have in the pic as I didn't want to clutter it (further), is the number of 'shooting star' candlesticks there at the higher prices - basically the bulls trying to push the price higher and being pushed back down by bears - in other words, encountering a lot of resistance and unsustainable buying pressure at the higher prices.

Cue the wrath of the FA-ers....

4745

[blakecb]

Well BlakeCB, let me put it this way. If traders and technicians caused me to pick up shares cheaply today, then I owe you my thanks....

hahaha....well that's the thing aye - without FAers, TAers would have no one to sell their shares to! And vice versa.

But you've highlighted the psychology of the bounce right there - current investors buy more 'cheap shares' which pushes the price back up. The question is how long can current investors sustain that for....

[MAC]

Today I noticed a couple of posts regarding expectations which I just found a bit peculiar, well, in addition to simply being just totally incorrect.

For those interested in reading the 2011 prospectus and the 2013 US commercialisation pathway presentations, you will find that PEB are exactly on track in terms of both schedule and sales. All due largely to committed and focused management I believe.

If you wish to DYOR you can find these documents on the PEB website along with others.

Sure and steady progress, and it's all up from here.

[nextbigthing]

If you wish to DYOR you can find these documents on the PEB website along with others.

Can you trust their figures re projected sales though? Are they in any way audited or accountable in the future other than investor revolt? If they're trying to attract investment surely they could paint the picture on the rosy side?

[benjitara]

Can you trust their figures re projected sales though? Are they in any way audited or accountable in the future other than investor revolt? If they're trying to attract investment surely they could paint the picture on the rosy side?

The company projections are just that projections, actions speak louder than words and I like PEBs course of action so far. The reason I hold shares is that the companies product has a competitive advantage over it's current rivals and a viable way of getting that competitive advantage to market. The real test of credibility for me is getting large players to take the product on. I am however very positive about the "knock on " effect of initial sign-ups, the medical industry will not take any new procedure/medication lightly and so likely press from such actions will be watched by a lot of people. All the best to the TA players here but i'm a holder and pleased to do so for the foreseeable future

[Dentie]

Can you trust their figures re projected sales though? Are they in any way audited or accountable in the future other than investor revolt? If they're trying to attract investment surely they could paint the picture on the rosy side?

I would say "projected sales" is just that ...projected.

It would not be in their own best interests to paint too rosy a picture here. They already have the cash in the bank for one thing and the figures they have used are easily verified bu the US's own Health Dept. statistics. Remember they are only quoting up to 12.5% of the available market. Under promise and over deliver sounds like a good theme to me and, what happens to their figures if they get say, 17.5% of the available market?

[nextbigthing]

Hopefully these figures are correct.

Current shareprice around 54 cents.

Projected semi gross revenue $100 mil

Shares issued 277 mil.

0.54 x 10% return = 5.4 cps required

0.054 required x 277 mil shares = $14.96 mil, say $15 mil.

So at the current shareprice, off projected semi gross revenue of $100 mil, they can afford to use approx $85 mil on the other costs to be able to return 10%. Obviously if once they're up and running the costs are minimal (ie no where near $85 mil) then it's not hard to see the potential to make substantial sums of cash.

Does anybody have any cost projections? Is there a similar well established company that could be used as a comparison?

This of course assumes the projected sales targets are correct.

NBT

Edit; I mean cost projections for the day to day running and marketing etc, not cost of kits which has been taken off the revenue already.

[waddis]

Can any one help with a technical question.....

From the ODT report on the AGM and from others comments from people who attended the meeting, there seem to be a few variants of the Cxbladder test, refer ODT quote below.........

"The mainstay product is the Cxbladder detection tool, but shareholders heard yesterday about the separate Cxbladder triage and Cxbladder predict, which are close to the later stages of development, while Cxbladder health has begun development"

I understand that Midkine is one of the markers in Cxbladder and was wondering if it is used in the variants of the test as well. As well as holding PEB I hold some CDY which owns the IP for that particular marker and is paid royalties for its use so are interested in whether midkine is used in the other Cxbladder tests. I really dont understand the technical detail too much but hopefully someone might. My guess it is but would like some confirmation if anyone does know

thx

[MAC]

Yes, and then there are the future product developments to consider which PEB also have in various stages of development.

At the AGM David Darling explained that, at present, PEB plan to grow at a rate equivalent to that which their cashflow will support, ie: such that another capital raising will not be required. This is a well thought through self sustaining approach in my view, and as we know they will have a lot of cash as early as next year.

They have cxcolorectal on hold awaiting cashflow while they concentrate on the, now four, cxbladder products. Cxcolorectal would require a similar sales strategy to oncologists rather than urologists. But, this product or product set could equally be as big at sometime in the next couple of years.

[Minerbarejet]

Further insights from an attendee at the AGM. Yahoo indeed :)
Thanks for this Hancocks, we are in your debt as usual.

[NZSilver]

Good diagnostic test, less cost, greater sensitivity and specificity than current gold standard (cystology) therefore this should be new gold standard medical test?

Also important points I think make this test;
1. - reduced risk to patient (cystology requires anaesthetic? / sedation?) - reduced patient risk - important as doctors shouldnt take unecessary risk. Especially in the states where litigation is common place.
2. - good screening test post treatment - say after removal/treatment of cancer - patient can be tested every 6month with this simple test to check cancer hasnt come back.

[NZSilver]

Yeh cheers Cystoscopy!

[Minerbarejet]

:)

Looks like we had a failed breakdown, congrats to those who are bottom feeders and had some balls! :p Hehehe (sofar):)

[Minerbarejet]

Turning into a trader are we Major? I'd sell at 59, or attempt a sneak in at 60 during auction time at end or beginning of the day. Guess NTL needs some more funding for that 50 inch Smart TV, pool table and la-z-boys going into the cave eh??? ;)
These are going into Investment Portfolio for dividends so I can get Sky in the cave eventually if such a thing exists on distribution. Suppose you could say the sky is the limit or a window of opportunity exists. Hope that sheds some light.:)

[Schrodinger]

I read through their AGM presentation and I found it difficult to read. There is very little about how they will grow this business. Pictures of elephants and soviet buildings are nice but where is the strategy and execution discussion. Saying they think the US will purchase their product is not good enough.

Doesnt fill me with any confidence if they present themselves like this.

...and finally sales info please > contracts>volume numbers>trials>ANYTHING!

p.s. I hope they prove me wrong and build a great company.

(disclosure: hold nothing and happy to do so)

[Schrodinger]

Today I noticed a couple of posts regarding expectations which I just found a bit peculiar, well, in addition to simply being just totally incorrect.

For those interested in reading the 2011 prospectus and the 2013 US commercialisation pathway presentations, you will find that PEB are exactly on track in terms of both schedule and sales. All due largely to committed and focused management I believe.

If you wish to DYOR you can find these documents on the PEB website along with others.

Sure and steady progress, and it's all up from here.

What are the financial numbers? Not interested in test results and other fluff, more interested to see what they are selling from their current product range.

[Schrodinger]

I agree the AGM presentation available online was a bit poor and confusing in layout.

But there is plenty more evidence out there about the execution for commercialisation of CxBladder by Darling and his US counterpart. You do a disservice to yourself as an investor to describe their lab as a "Soviet style building". Apparently it is nothing short of state of the art.

If you read over the presentation again, you will see their sales map, plus also their first three hires (sales executives). This is a pretty good clue as to their methodology for approaching the USA.

That maybe true Sparky, but posting a picture of a large building tells me nothing as an investor. Do they own the building and was it prudent to spend money on this over their obvoius need for sales and marketing attention... or are they refitting 2 rooms/floors etc? What was the capital outlay and ROI?

Since there are three of them and are obvious superstars, it interests me why they chose PEB over other obvious companies that would love to have them due to their impressive achievements.

I see alot of companies fail in the USA and this is because they cant sell. I hope they are an exception.

[MAC]

A little patience will be rewarded Schrodinger.

We are all genuinely interested in seeing PEB prosper, and it should be an interesting watch over the next three months leading up to PEB's first half year report on US sales.

The share market leads sales performance and reacts if that performance does not unfold. We should start to see the market beginning to back the company now and build in some anticipation of an adequate HY14 sales report.

With five years of growth ahead, it's all up from here.

[Schrodinger]

A little patience will be rewarded Schrodinger.

We are all genuinely interested in seeing PEB prosper, and it should be an interesting watch over the next three months leading up to PEB's first half year report on US sales.

The share market leads sales performance and reacts if that performance does not unfold. We should start to see the market beginning to back the company now and build in some anticipation of an adequate HY14 sales report.

With five years of growth ahead, it's all up from here.
O
k, the next information release will be interesting.

[Twinklefingers]

That maybe true Sparky, but posting a picture of a large building tells me nothing as an investor. Do they own the building and was it prudent to spend money on this over their obvoius need for sales and marketing attention... or are they refitting 2 rooms/floors etc? What was the capital outlay and ROI?

Since there are three of them and are obvious superstars, it interests me why they chose PEB over other obvious companies that would love to have them due to their impressive achievements.

I see alot of companies fail in the USA and this is because they cant sell. I hope they are an exception.

I'm pretty sure it's been mentioned in one of their previous reports that they are one of the people leasing space in that building.

Also it's at the Hershey Research Center amongst numerous other medical companies. Interestingly (to me at least) Jack Atchason who is listed as Director of Strategic Accounts for PEDUSA is actually Executive Director at the Hershey Research Center so while working at PEDUSA isn't his only job he's going to have some pretty solid contacts in the industry and hopefully experience with other companies in PEDUSAs situation. I'd say the fact he chose PEB over "other obvious companies" shows he thinks they have a good shot at success.

[barney]

The presentation that was given at the agm was perfectly adequate to me. Sure it was'nt some slick glossy piece of spin put out by a comminications division or PR firm, but I've seen plenty of those over the years and I know which I would rather have.

The amount of floor space leased in the Hershey building, the cost of the fitout, potential additional space has all been previously disclosed by Pacific Edge.

[benjitara]

I find it heartening reading through the history of the ASX listed Prana Bio (pbt) and seeing the positive differences and same strengths as that of PEB. While the products that companies provide are totally different I do get the feeling that PEB have truly cracked the large hurdles of commercialisation and positive clinical trials. To me this provides the company with a tangible way forward which we are about to start seeing.PEB certainly have kept their cards close to their chest which for me is only strengthening my support.

[barney]

Todays NBR has an article on Pacific Edge in their Margin Call column written by David Williams.

It does'nt appear to be available online but its hardcopy edition is probably worth a read, although there is nothing particularly new being revealed.

It mentions the recently completed DHB user programmes, Canterbury and Waitemata, and that David Darling has met with Tony Ryall this week for the second time. Also mentions a customer in the US who is about to embark on the user programme and whose size is roughly three times the size of all the NZ health boards combined.

[MAC]

Fantastic news thanks Barney, I'm off to buy a copy.

Hopefully a market announcement will soon follow, they would seem to be market appropriate announcements given PEB's stage in business.

[CJ]

It does'nt appear to be available online but its hardcopy edition is probably worth a read,The one think holding me back from getting a subscription. Some fo their stuff is free but then they have two different premium products (online and print).


Also mentions a customer in the US who is about to embark on the user programme and whose size is roughly three times the size of all the NZ health boards combined.BOOM

Lets hope they pull it off.

[blobbles]

Isn't the market in NZ about 15k tests a year? 3 times this is 45k tests... jeez if PEB pull that one off it will be a massive coup! At that rate they would move their books from being in the red to black and some!

[Minerbarejet]

and the Intrinsic Value would be around $3.00 IF it happens

[Snow Leopard]

and the Intrinsic Value would be around $3.00 IF it happens

And how did you come to this number?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

And how did you come to this number?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
using Johnny the Horses post from way back which had a table that indicated (45000tests x $550.00)
=$24750000 revenue would give an IV above 3.00. I believe this table was constructed from the projected 5 year plan. As far as I'm aware this hasn't been called to task so far.

[Schrodinger]

Sounds good. Any indications of insider trading on the market?

[Xerof]

Well, unless the seller of 50k or 100 k each and every open and close since last week is an insider, no.....

[Schrodinger]

Well, unless the seller of 50k or 100 k each and every open and closesince last week is an insider, no.....



;) Ill have to check to see if the price has increased....

[benjitara]

User programmes are great and essential to sales but lets not get too excited yet. The programmes can run for extended periods. I'd like to see multiple potential clients before throwing a party.

[Xerof]

Lol, yes I thought you already knew the answer Schrodinger.....:t_up:

[Snow Leopard]

using Johnny the Horses post from way back which had a table that indicated (45000tests x $550.00)
=$24750000 revenue would give an IV above 3.00. I believe this table was constructed from the projected 5 year plan. As far as I'm aware this hasn't been called to task so far.

Well given that I 'called it to task' at the time that sort of explains why I 'called to task' your number recently.

With all due respect to JtH I believe his evaluation left a lot to be desired.

I suggest you roll your own numbers.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

do you have any numbers of your own for this matter? It would be a privilege to be able to compare them.Again with all due respect I assume you would be taking a much lesser stance .Apologies if this is incorrect

[Snow Leopard]

do you have any numbers of your own for this matter? It would be a privilege to be able to compare them.Again with all due respect I assume you would be taking a much lesser stance .Apologies if this is incorrect

You will find them in posts just after the JtH post you referenced, and yes they adopt a lesser stance.

I consider the current share price is close to 'worth the risk' but I do not own any.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[MAC]

You will find them in posts just after the JtH post you referenced, and yes they adopt a lesser stance.

I consider the current share price is close to 'worth the risk' but I do not own any.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I’d like to offer a balancing view paper tiger if I may for thought and discussion, we all have differing risk appetites after all.

PEB seem to me to be de-risking steadily, first sales achieved, regulatory approvals in place, laboratories constructed on budget/schedule, trials achieved with DHB’s and prospectively now with US counterparts, technology risk is dropping away as those trials in application provide better than anticipated results.

Yes, there are still risks yet to be concluded and some that will be on-going as for all businesses, competitors exist although none are anywhere close to being market ready, saleability and price point, ability to break existing NMP22 technology entrenchment and loyalties.

The only significant difficulty I personally have is not having direct access to good market data so it’s hard to self-assess, but this seems to be an industry issue, health professionals don’t give much away, it’s a patient confidentially culture.

The sales strategy that PEB has revealed seems to be intelligent and comprehensive as does the market research provided by them.

My view is that the projected sales and $100M revenue curve is looking more and more achievable and attractive every day that goes by.

My present fully de-risked valuation on that revenue stream is $1.25

It may now just take one good US contract announcement and a five year uptrend may commence.

[Minerbarejet]

for those watching this debate with Paper Tiger the posts in question are peb 654 through 661

[blobbles]

This fascinates me, it appears we are on the cusp of good sales in the US and NZ, yet the market response is to sell!

I am guessing that not many people read the NBR article then?

[MAC]

It is interesting blobbles. It seemed that what we saw last week was a strategic breakdown of technical levels on no news, also we’ve seen sell downs at the close each day this week. Could well be a large player forcing the market down for a better entry point, just because they can. Still it's just short term noise, with fundamentals like these a positive announcement will turn matters around real quick.

[MAC]

Crumbs, I hope you picked a few of those up at the time Hancock’s, they’re only up 110% ?.

There's not actually been a lot of volume in the selling in the last few days, no disclosures, not much on the morningstar site either.

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-concentrated.html?t=peb&region=NZL&culture=en-US

[Minerbarejet]

NBR today, The Press tomorrow? Crazy ride, possibly Central Securities shedding a few, they sold off 8,000,000 shares in the year before Sept2012.Silly old them

[Minerbarejet]

still silly old them

[Snow Leopard]

still silly old them

4769

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

There's not actually been a lot of volume in the selling in the last few days, no disclosures, not much on the morningstar site either.

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-concentrated.html?t=peb&region=NZL&culture=en-US
Thanks for posting this MAC, will be very useful when things get cracking.

[Minerbarejet]

name change there major???Just a minor change to prevent conflict with MVT and his posts. Thought that miner might be alright considering holdings in ntl, axe and aoh which are mostly in a hole atm.
From the cave at emptor
Have a nice day:)

[bonne vie]

Below job add posted today - note highlighted new products " state of the art cancer management products". Seems a natural progression from the diagnostic tools - not sure if this has been disclosed before (surprised if it hasn't).
Ref /Job ID: 88386796438C02E7 / 5952385 Industry: Science, Technology, R&D, Biotech Company:Pacific Edge Limited Location:Australia Australia 0 - 0 Type: Full Time Advertiser: Agency Posted: 31-08-2013 Closing: 07-09-2013
Pacific Edge Limited is a Dunedin-based biomedical company specialisingin the development and commercialisation of diagnostics and prognostics for arange of cancers including bladder, colorectal and gastric. The Company hascompleted a successful international multicenter clinical trial for its bladdercancer detection test Cxbladder. The Company’s colorectal cancer prognosticgene signature has also recently successfully completed its clinical trial inEurope. Pacific Edge Limited has nowmoved to commercialise these products into global markets. As part of ourdevelopment and growth strategy Pacific Edge Limited has formed aninternational network of collaborations and alliances with research institutesand companies in Australasia, North America, Europe and Asia. The Company isnow seeking to appoint a top-level scientist who will be considered critical indeveloping and implementing the Company’s clinical program for moleculardiagnostic testing and contribute to thevision of developing state of the art cancer management products. Thesuccessful candidate will join a commercial, product-focused team in anenvironment where communication and collaboration are essential. You will beinvolved in all facets of the clinical program development including buildingline extensions to existing products, implementation of product pipelines andevaluating novel molecular diagnostics tests in a commercial laboratorysetting. Specifically applicants will have: • PhD in a relevant sciencediscipline with a minimum of 4 years post doctoral experience • Proven abilityto plan, execute and report scientific clinical studies • Experience with therunning of human clinical trials • A knowledge of or strong interest inclinical diagnostics • Ability to communicate fluently verbally and in writingto a wide variety of stakeholders, including physicians • Ability to performwell as a member of a team as well as showing leadership in areas of primaryresponsibility • Flexible can-do attitude • A willingness and aptitude to help turnscientific ideas into commercial reality. It would be advantageous forapplicants to have: • A knowledge of the regulatory environment for clinicallaboratories • Experience with bio resource collections (Bio Banks) We areoffering an exciting and challenging job with a competitive salary commensuratewith experience and skills. Pacific Edge Limited is based in Dunedin in closeproximity to the University of Otago and the successful candidate will beworking with a professional team in a great working environment.

[MAC]

Perhaps someone from the health sector can assist ?

At the AGM David Darling advised that PEB are presently selling in the US at a price point of $550 per test, and I’m still trying to interpret what this actually means. This is at the lower end of the 2011 capital raising guidance of $550 to $630.

A common sales and marketing strategy is to offer ‘trials’ at a lower price, once both parties are satisfied with the results, sales may continue at a normal (higher) price point, let’s say $630 per test.

Or, is this not a customary sales practice in the health sector ?

[MAC]

So we may also have some sort of a wholesale / retail thing going on also ?. I guess that may mean that direct sales to the US insurers may then come at a higher price point.

I'm actually very encouraged that PEB are presently "in discussion" with their first US customer, the fact that PEB are prepared to publicly declare this suggests they are confident it will indeed happen. And, being roughly three times the size of all NZ DHB’s combined, well need we say more.

I'm increasingly becoming more bullish, it seems that after years of kicking around the lab we are at the tipping point of sales exploding now.

Even just having a few LUG's under trial would represent huge sales volumes.

[baller18]

So we may also have some sort of a wholesale / retail thing going on also ?. I guess that may mean that direct sales to the US insurers may then come at a higher price point.

I'm actually very encouraged that PEB are presently "in discussion" with their first US customer, the fact that PEB are prepared to publicly declare this suggests they are confident it will indeed happen. And, being roughly three times the size of all NZ DHB’s combined, well need we say more.

I'm increasingly becoming more bullish, it seems that after years of kicking around the lab we are at the tipping point of sales exploding now.

Even just having a few LUG's under trial would represent huge sales volumes.

Time to load up more mac?
Waiting for my entry...

[blobbles]

Don't wait too long baller... not sure how long it will be before the general public realise they are on the cusp of big sales. Hopefully a bit longer (and the price falls a bit more!) so I can top up at stupid prices too!

[Xerof]

There was continued selling on the close Friday, this time with a 500k parcel lobbed out.

probably the same seller we have seen all week. Watch the open and close to see if they are still exiting in 50, 100, and now 500k parcels

my concern is it must be one of the larger holders (who still lobbed out after the NBR reported comments) What do they know?, but then what do I know, lol

the 60 cent capper has come down to market I suspect, but it's only conjecture on my part.

would that buyer of 333,333 the other week like to step up for another 555,555. Lucky for some.....

[blobbles]

There was continued selling on the close Friday, this time with a 500k parcel lobbed out.

probably the same seller we have seen all week. Watch the open and close to see if they are still exiting in 50, 100, and now 500k parcels

my concern is it must be one of the larger holders (who still lobbed out after the NBR reported comments) What do they know?, but then what do I know, lol

the 60 cent capper has come down to market I suspect, but it's only conjecture on my part.

would that buyer of 333,333 the other week like to step up for another 555,555. Lucky for some.....

Dang yes! Wish I was on the end of half a million PEB shares! My amounts look pitiful in comparison :(

[Minerbarejet]

Two good unreliable indicators of stock market probability this morning, much more light and agricultural aircraft traffic recently and hemlines are definitely on the rise.:)

[Xerof]

Sparky, I'll bet your nose was pulsing like a strobe light :t_up:

[Minerbarejet]

Came across this during surfing activity.
Dont know if it actually is of great interest to everyone, however it does mention Pacific Edge and assisting them with a number of third party health organisations.
www.bowieyorke.co.nz/Ourwork.aspx

[MAC]

That is interesting Major

“Preparing and negotiating agreements relating to PEL’s expansion into the US market, including services agreements, consultancy agreements, and website and privacy terms”

Lawyers can’t negotiate agreement(s) unless it’s all actually happening behind the scenes and on the cards.

[CJ]

Lawyers can’t negotiate agreement(s) unless it’s all actually happening behind the scenes and on the cards.Why not. I assume they mean they are part of the negotiating team being in charge of whether or not clause 8(b)(ii) should have a 'must' or a 'shall' in the second line.

[Minerbarejet]

Why not. I assume they mean they are part of the negotiating team being in charge of whether or not clause 8(b)(ii) should have a 'must' or a 'shall' in the second line.
Do you mean like a ready to roll will or mortgage agreement?
Sign here, here, here, here and here. Where would you like the goods delivered.:)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

As mentioned, someone is clearly selling down. Parcels of 100k being released right now. At a guess I would say they have sold maybe 1.5 million so far (assuming there aren't a few large sellers). Would be interesting to know who it is, anybody have access to a shareholder list?

[MAC]

Could be BT Funds, all the others seem to be buying ?

http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-concentrated.html?t=PEB&region=NZL&culture=en-US

[baller18]

Not too sure if I am correct, but 50 cents always gets filled at the end of the day.

[biker]

I'm topping up at these levels

[Balance]

Not too sure if I am correct, but 50 cents always gets filled at the end of the day.

One huge seller but several buyers emerging who are prepared to take volume at 51 cents.

How long will this ding dong last?

[baller18]

I am wondering if eventually the big seller will go under 50 cents...

[Minerbarejet]

Probably until the first batch of outstanding news from the US.
re#2152

[biker]

I am wondering if eventually the big seller will go under 50 cents...

I do hope so.

[Dej]

I am wondering if eventually the big seller will go under 50 cents...

As do I!!!

[baller18]

Could be a DA resistance level.
What does DA stand for hancocks? THanks!

[janner]

Could be a DA resistance level.

Is.. He/She a DA ??. Why sell large numbers ( relative ) if all is well ??

Disc. " very small holding ". Watching with interest.

[Minerbarejet]

Yes and why not. Its a good gain -take it. We dont mind if you leave lots on the table.
Heres another bit I stumbled over,
www.ebdgroup.com/bts/presenters/prs_comps.php
Have had a quick look- Biodesix, Bioniche, Diagnoplex and Kinemed seem to be in a fairly closely related area. There may be others but most in the list seem to be concerned with treatment rather than diagnostics. Seems there is another showcase January 2014 in San Francisco.

[Xerof]

Could also be any one of the overseas holders who might be selling NZ Inc due to the currency falling. Doesn't have to be PEB specific.

could be Hancocks?

Could be me? (but its not)

perhaps Balance would care to divulge........he has stated its a single huge seller in post #2152

[Minerbarejet]

Hi Minor, (doesn't seem right) there are lots of universities and Biotech’s doing the research, literally 1000’s but getting a product through to market is the real challenge and Pacific Edge are doing that; and, they are also displaying at Biotech Showcase 2014. They also had a stand in 2011 & 2012 too.

Disc: not selling, god forbid, absolutely not.

Suppose we can look at a we find it you fix it partnership along the way- there is a lot going on out there.
Sorry about the minor problem but I made it miner(as I have NTL) to stop conflicting with MVT. Vince was very helpful in sorting this out. Perhaps I should have made it mynah or perhaps birdynumnums which I use elsewhere. Peter Sellars was the tops.

Disc: me neither, are you out of your tree, last man standing, roll on 2015

[QOH]

I doubled my holding today, time will tell if it's another bad decision, I know one should not average down. I seem to have made a lot of bad decisions re NZ sharemarket last couple of months.

[Dentie]

I doubled my holding today, time will tell if it's another bad decision, I know one should not average down. I seem to have made a lot of bad decisions re NZ sharemarket last couple of months.

Can I suggest not to reflect too toughly on yourself. I believe if the Company you are investing in is fundamentally sound, with great prospects on the horizon and is making all the right commercial decisions, then go ahead and invest.

I also believe a lot of the problems with the NZ sharemarket stem from it being so very small in size. This makes it possible for deep pocketed entities to influence what happens in a particular Company's share price. Also QOH, there seems to be a lot of very small investors/traders who are very risk averse and/or nervous nellies who have their finger on the sell trigger. They can also unwittingly (or wittingly) influence the share price. IMHO, these people should go back to a fixed interest investment as they do more damage than good. This is further demonstrated when you see investors/traders (buyers) hanging out for .001 gain.

I have had a good size holding in PEB for about the last 3 years and see no reason to sell. They tick the boxes for me and like all investments ... time will tell! At least PEB looks like it is going to make some decent money ... when the share price I am sure will then reflect (in that order) ... unlike others that have it round the wrong way at present.

[Minerbarejet]

if you are referring to dil and xro then I quite agree ,Dentie. It seems the potential of PEB is by no means built into its share price currently. Once a few main players cotton on things could look a little different.

[Balance]

Relax, holders.

Think of those who went into the IPO, had faith and rode this company to where it is today.

Do i sense that anyone of them are rubbing their worry balls with vigor?

I do sense however that PEB has shifted its focus to getting the business now underway and allowing the sp in the short term to find its own level. The right thing to do but could be bumpy for the stock as there are many traders now in the stock.

[Dentie]

if you are referring to dil and xro then I quite agree ,Dentie. It seems the potential of PEB is by no means built into its share price currently. Once a few main players cotton on things could look a little different.

How perceptive you are Miner!!

[Dentie]

Surely though the main difference between XRO, DIL and PEB is the former two have demonstrated the ability to not only make sales but increase sales at a very fast rate. I know DIL has found themselves in a different situation now, but when it was highflying at $7+ and with XRO over the last couple of years, their shareprices were factoring in a track record of sales as well as a strong likelihood of continued growth in sales. PEB is not there yet, in fact it hasn't made any significant sales yet (have they?) so surely you wouldnt expect the PEB SP to factor in sales and sales growth to the same extent as XRO has and DIL did, would you? It's not a very good comparison is the point I am getting at.

My small experience with pharma stocks is that PEB's SP will likely take off at a greater rate than XRO or DIL ever did, but it will happen when/if sales become a reality... Just my 2 cents, may well get shot down in flames though ;)

No shooting to be done here Turmeric. For me, sales is one thing BUT profit & cash are the important factor. I have witnessed plenty of firms with heaps of sales...but if there is no cash & profits following, then there is an inevitable implosion that follows. Look at the revenue Bear Stearns was generating and unnamed insurance companies .... plenty on the top line, but nothing of value on the bottom line.

Edit: Shareholders will only keep tossing in their dosh to make up the numbers for so long!

[Minerbarejet]

so based on that can we assume that if PEB can factor in not only sales, fast growth, more potential AND turn a PROFIT then the bar will be raised from high jump to pole vault:)

[CJ]

Surely though the main difference between XRO, DIL and PEB is the former two have demonstrated the ability to not only make sales You are right. If PEB can start making sales, its price may rocket ahead, much like DIL and XRO factoring in their US facility running at capacity.

I think PEB has the ability to increase quickly, if it shows some early big wins. Wait too long and you may miss out - risk vs reward.

[GR8DAY]

I agree with you for sure, but your last point is just as pertinent to PEB (even more so because not only are they not making profit but they havent even made sales yet).

Disc: Hold PEB



.........ah NOT made sales yet??............what planet did you get that info from Tumeric??........PLUS they wil be making making these sales (naturally) showing a GROSS profit......otherwise why would they bother........NET profit well that's another thing entirely. HOLDER.

[GR8DAY]

......exactly MOOSIE......runs on the board.......possibly hundreds already I would be picking??

[Minerbarejet]

we've already determined PEB have made at least one sale as CDY.ASX was paid royalties for it turmeric! keep up!
er, not quite , moosie - they made a milestone payment of 1,084,622 shares in PEB for the start of the sales drive in the USA on July 1st. I dont think that means a sale has to have occurred. Royalties will be paid semi annually from that point as I understand it. Will be watching the Cellmid site as well from here on in.
1,084,622 shares in PEB in addition to royalties has a nice ring to it dont you think?:)
Disc:Holding both

[Dentie]

I agree with you for sure, but your last point is just as pertinent to PEB (even more so because not only are they not making profit but they havent even made sales yet).

Disc: Hold PEB

A couple of more points Turmeric...

1. My comment about Shareholders tossing in dosh was more about the likes of XRO relying on selected big s/holders (eg Thiel) putting in large amounts of direct funds to provide working capital until such time as the business can generate its own working capital - through profits hopefully. Whereas PEB is being supported by a wide range of smaller shareholders - meaning their capital base is more diversified and not as risky. That is, what would be the result if Thiel & his ilk lost confidence and pulled everything out?

2. The point I am trying to make in terms of sales revenue vs profitability (& cash), is that if PEB currently had the amount of (relative) customer base that XRO is currently trumpeting, they would be very much more profitable than XRO. It is on this basis that I can't understand the difference in the share price between the two.

I think PEB are going to be very well placed once their customer base and revenue stream has begun to get momentum.

[baller18]

Do all the buyers now know the big seller dumps his shares at 50cents?
Is that why no one is buying today?

[Minerbarejet]

Do all the buyers now know the big seller dumps his shares at 50cents?
Is that why no one is buying today?At these prices I'm glad to be a nobody.:)

[GR8DAY]

Yes, sorry I know they have made "some" sales - my bad, but it is nothing significant yet. I left out the word "significant" which was in my previous post. The context of the discussion I was having with Dentie might help to put my comment in perspective a bit GR8DAY if you havent read through that yet. They haven't made significant sales yet - significant being relative to the type of sales that XRO or DIL have made which was where the original comparison was being made.

What sales figures have you got there GR8DAY? It is still an unknown isnt it?


Hi TUMERIC.......yep sorry might have been reading that out of context! My sales figures are confidential (as Ive made them up) but I guess I can tell you (confidentially of course) that they have sold more than one test so far.....keep it to yourself but I always talk in hundreds......you work it out!......AND on top of that figure I believe the sales growth will be exponential........ie hundreds and hundreds then quickly thousands per annum..........MUMS THE WORD!!

[benjitara]

So What Should We Expect AT HY14 Reporting ?

PEB is a tough company to assess as they provide such little commercial information. HY14 reporting to 30th September is around 12 weeks away, may I test some anticipations with others, all constructive comments and contributions welcome ;

HY14 Revenues:

If we assume a roll over of revenue from research grants for the half year this provides approximately NZD80k within the HY14 reporting period. Thus we have;

Research Grants = NZD80k
NZ Revenue = (130+180+75)sales * NZD850 = NZD327k
US Revenue = (200)sales * USD550 / 0.77 = NZD143k

Thus a HY14 revenue estimate of NZ$550, (70% increase on HY13)

I’m anticipating a net earnings loss for some time to come, as per advice from the AGM, PEB will ramp up sales staff at a rate equivalent to that which forward cashflow will support.

I'm not overly sure if we are going to see any sales at all from PEBUSA in the next report. "User Programmes" aren't regarded as sales surely and I think one of the reports stated that "user programmes" were conducted over 6-12 months. I'd be happy if PEB were to report on a steady uptake of the test in New Zealand with more word waiting on usa pathways. The difficult thing would be the market all ready factoring in large potential turnover on word that USA clients have agreed to take on the product.

[Minerbarejet]

Might I suggest that if Messrs Darling et al read these posts they would be having a quiet chuckle but I bet they are too busy getting the show on the road.

[MAC]

Such is the difficulty isn't it Hancock's.

PEB neither provide numerical guidance, nor do they provide adequate information to the market for confident independent analysis.

I don't think it's a case of too many scientists and too few business folk, it's just a part of their management and company maturing from being a provincial laboratory in Dunedin to being an international going concern.

One of the potential issues for PEB in not being open is that the SP going forward may become very volatile indeed as the market starts to anticipate forward sales in the tens of thousands over the next couple of years rather than in the hundreds as at present.

[robbo24]

Might I suggest that if Messrs Darling et al read these posts they would be having a quiet chuckle but I bet they are too busy getting the show on the road.

I'm sure the MCAP is the least of their concerns. $137.4m @ 49cents though.

If we presume there is some sales slog toward the overarching goals going on their surely 137.4m is undervalued...

[blobbles]

I suspect the company will stay undervalued until we see year on year sales growth. As this is the base year (half year really) for the US, I would also suggest guessing sales numbers is like throwing a dart at a dart board three times and multiplying the numbers together - in other words pointless!

Right now all we have is market size numbers and very positive sounds.

[forest]

"PEB neither provide numerical guidance, nor do they provide adequate information to the market for confident independent analysis." (Mac)"

Not quite,
Page 19 of 2013 annual report quote "We have estimated that this business could generate gross revenue for pacific Edge in excess of $100 mil by the end of our 5th year of trading in the USA."

At the AGM David Darling confirmed that PEB is on track to reach this expectation.

I know 5 years is a long time but this company is aiming for great things.

[baller18]

Is there another big seller dumping their shares at 49cents?
Does this year count as the first year?

[forest]

Is there another big seller dumping their shares at 49cents?
Does this year count as the first year?

As I understand it the first sales have been made in the US. After the AGM I had a conversation with David Darling and a separate conversation with Chris Swann (Chairman) and I can tell you that both gave me confidence that this company is likely to accomplish what it is setting out to achieve.

I questioned them about the balance of scientist and more business orientated direction of the company and was happy with their answers.

[baller18]

Why do they all dump it at the end of the day? So it doesn't look bad dumping it during trading hours?

[Under Surveillance]

[QUOTE=Hancocks;425928]Why do funds or people sell, no conspiracy theory, just business?
I reckon that those who sell think their money will be more productive elsewhere. In that circumstance they have decided they should not piss about, and sit pat hoping for a dead cat bounce or some other stroke of luck, and be fatalistic and get what they can right away.

[Xerof]

NZ Central Securities is owned by the RBNZ, and acts as a custodial trustee for thousands of local and foreign holders. So, Hancocks, I think you would probably be right in guessing that's where they are coming from. Unfortunately, that doesn't help much!

not to worry, they will be going to good homes. There was another block crossing at 5.05 pm at 49 as well, but that may have just been the bulk of the original parcel being flicked on to a final buyer by the broker who likely took on the parcel in their own name (we will never really know, but I like to hazard a guess)

baller, most funds and institutions like to execute orders in the opening and closing auctions, as it allows true price discovery with better liquidity than can be found during the day

but note, this trade today was an offmarket transaction between willing buyer/seller for a good volume (4.04pm)

[Balance]

NZ Central Securities is owned by the RBNZ, and acts as a custodial trustee for thousands of local and foreign holders. So, Hancocks, I think you would probably be right in guessing that's where they are coming from. Unfortunately, that doesn't help much!

not to worry, they will be going to good homes. There was another block crossing at 5.05 pm at 49 as well, but that may have just been the bulk of the original parcel being flicked on to a final buyer by the broker who likely took on the parcel in their own name (we will never really know, but I like to hazard a guess)

baller, most funds and institutions like to execute orders in the opening and closing auctions, as it allows true price discovery with better liquidity than can be found during the day

but note, this trade today was an offmarket transaction between willing buyer/seller for a good volume (4.04pm)

Sp has been under pressure for a while as there was obviously a big seller around.

Good that a buyer has stepped up to the plate and taken the seller on.

[Xerof]

Yep, we've been commenting on it every day, 50's, then 100's, then 500, and now 1mill

more volume as the price goes lower

my take is buyers happier sub 50, seller has urgency?

[baller18]

Yep, we've been commenting on it every day, 50's, then 100's, then 500, and now 1mill

more volume as the price goes lower

my take is buyers happier sub 50, seller has urgency?
Don't quite understand, if the last few days, there always have been buyers taking huge lots at 50 cents, why would the seller want to go lower? If they can get 50 cents for it...

[Dentie]

Don't quite understand, if the last few days, there always have been buyers taking huge lots at 50 cents, why would the seller want to go lower? If they can get 50 cents for it...


IMHO, there are those who earn their dosh in a respective way and understand what it represents and there are others who come into money without having earned it and therefore don't respect its value. For some, money is a kind of toy that they have fun with and when they've finished playing with it, they simply get rid of it and move onto something else. They don't think in terms of yield, capital gain or loss etc..........they just make decisions in a haphazard way. For the rest of us, who are trying to eke out a comfortable living for ourselves - in some sort of methodical and rational manner...well, we just gotta either suck it up or get out and do something else.

I gave up trying to understand why people make the financial based decisions that they do - a long time ago. In this current round of selling, I just think the positive way and thank the seller for providing a good amount of liquidity for those that see a great opportunity not too far ahead now. Maybe the seller is being philanthropic and doesn't need to make more millions?

[Xerof]

Don't quite understand, if the last few days, there always have been buyers taking huge lots at 50 cents, why would the seller want to go lower? If they can get 50 cents for it...

understand this, price and volume action has shown those who care to observe, that someone is a keen seller. Buyers with any commercial nous will wait for the seller to 'come' to their price, and not pay up to the sellers offer. Hence a lot went through at 50, not higher, and then an offmarket buyer was only prepared to pay 49 for a 1m parcel

thats the market

works the other way when buyers are keener than sellers

[Balance]

Always remember Brian Henry offloading millions of DIL shares at under 50 cents -m scared the hell out of the traders and nervous nellies, but Milford and a few other shrewd investors took the opportunity to load up.

People sell for all kinds of reasons - the initial reaction of the market to any aggressive selling is that there's something the seller knows which nobody else does. And fair enough too - I saw how Feltex was hammered by a few informed sellers before it went under.

What investors must look for when there is a selldown is whether buyers step up to the plate and take the stock. They do not buy 1m shares without doing their homework.

Have a look at GPG - sellers were heading for the exit door in panic a few months ago. Out came a few big hitters and they moped up every available share, and then once they were set, started paying up to increase their stakes.

[Dentie]

understand this, price and volume action has shown those who care to observe, that someone is a keen seller. Buyers with any commercial nous will wait for the seller to 'come' to their price, and not pay up to the sellers offer. Hence a lot went through at 50, not higher, and then an offmarket buyer was only prepared to pay 49 for a 1m parcel

thats the market

works the other way when buyers are keener than sellers


I may want 1 million shares and I may have up to $300k available....how long should I wait for that seller to come to me?

[baller18]

Thanks guys!!!

[RTM]

If some folk are selling shares acquired at 9 cents.....then they are probably quite happy with 50c or 40 or 30 or......

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/228757
Pursuant to the exercise of options to acquire Ordinary Shares at $0.09 per share.

[Xerof]

I may want 1 million shares and I may have up to $300k available....how long should I wait for that seller to come to me?
Lol, yes I know, timing is (allegedly) everything.


I think the answer is.....depends how KEEN you are


marvellous things markets.....

[MAC]

If some folk are selling shares acquired at 9 cents.....then they are probably quite happy with 50c or 40 or 30 or......

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/228757
Pursuant to the exercise of options to acquire Ordinary Shares at $0.09 per share.

That’s entirely true of any stock. Equally, if they held for another three months they may be selling at 90 or 100 or 110 cents.

There’s no telling why folk decide to sell rapidly. But for whatever reason, one could speculate that they may have wanted to sell down for sometime and didn’t get any strength to sell into after the AGM.

[Dentie]

That’s entirely true of any stock. Equally, if they held for another three months they may be selling at 90 or 100 or 110 cents.

There’s no telling why folk decide to sell rapidly. But for whatever reason, one could speculate that they may have wanted to sell down for sometime and didn’t get any strength to sell into after the AGM.

I agree. Sellers will sell when they sell - for whatever reason - and the same goes for buyers. What happened previously is historic and can't be influenced ... and what is yet to happen is unknown to all of us, but may be subject to influence. I can't see any point in trying to second guess why the market does what she does. The bottom line is she will take us wherever she wants and will do whatever she wants to us - because everything being equal, she is an efficient beast. Willing buyer and willing seller acting on all available information. If both sides of the market had the same interpretation of the available information...there probably wouldn't be a market.

And so ends my philosophical viewpoint!

[benjitara]

I agree. The bottom line is she will take us wherever she wants and will do whatever she wants to us - because everything being equal, she is an efficient beast. Willing buyer and willing seller acting on all available information. If both sides of the market had the same interpretation of the available information...there probably wouldn't be a market.

And so ends my philosophical viewpoint!

Nice quote. I'm involved in a harness racing business (wagering) The tote is a market. "the pool" (total turnover on a race ) is generated by differing opinions between people wagering on different horses at different prices. They all have ways of coming to their own conclusions about who will win/place in the race. All individuals can do is trust their study/instincts and back with confidence. A interesting market in itself to study.

[Dentie]

Nice quote. I'm involved in a harness racing business (wagering) The tote is a market. "the pool" (total turnover on a race ) is generated by differing opinions between people wagering on different horses at different prices. They all have ways of coming to their own conclusions about who will win/place in the race. All individuals can do is trust their study/instincts and back with confidence. A interesting market in itself to study.

I bet it is Benji ... problem is, whenever humans are involved in the equation - it really comes down to luck and guesswork. If it were just the animals involved...I would then get excited at participating! LOL

[blu3]

Another article concluding on possible detections of cancers through urine analysis, and linking back to the previous article about Odoreader: http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-09/whats-your-pee
Would be interesting to follow.

Disc: not trying to freak peoples out, holding PEB myself.