PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[When the bass drops]

Share price weakening ahead of results announcement on 24 Nov.

Do I detect concerns about another capital raising on the way?

Maybe, maybe not. As a supporter of PEB, I still believe one more capital raising is on the way. Let's see.

[Minerbarejet]

Share price weakening ahead of results announcement on 24 Nov.

Do I detect concerns about another capital raising on the way?Why dont you just Monitor it and stop this sharemongering.

[Balance]

Maybe, maybe not. As a supporter of PEB, I still believe one more capital raising is on the way. Let's see.

You may believe but the rest of the market is not.

The last capital raising was a shocker and damaged the credibility of the company amongst many in the market.

[trader_jackson]

Share price weakening ahead of results announcement on 24 Nov.

Do I detect concerns about another capital raising on the way?

I see PEB is up nearly 10% since this time last year...

[pierre]

I see PEB is up nearly 10% since this time last year...

Quite correct. I find it usually pays to take a balanced view of what is happening in the market rather than just one individual's point of view.

[Balance]

Quite correct. I find it usually pays to take a balanced view of what is happening in the market rather than just one individual's point of view.

Exactly.

That's why there are those who are highly skeptical and thankful they did not just take DD's or CS's point of view?

[OldGuy]

the fact that PEBs SP has dropped during one of the greatest recent upswings in sentiment say a lot. Ignore at your peril :)

[winner69]

I see PEB is up nearly 10% since this time last year...

Good one t_j

Low last November was 35 cents - you should have said 25% up since then

That must be a relief for you

[Balance]

Good one t_j

Low last November was 35 cents - you should have said 25% up since then

That must be a relief for you

And only down 76% from 3 years ago - ouch!

[Defater]

Why do you bother with this thread? Can you name me one topic or thread you have made a positive comment about.... anything but not Donald Trump please.

[kiora]

Who celebrated the milestone?
Is that really 1003 pages and 15031 posts on this thread?
This must be the most vibrant thread in all of ST!

[When the bass drops]

Why do you bother with this thread? Can you name me one topic or thread you have made a positive comment about.... anything but not Donald Trump please.

A couple of posters get their jollies on talking down PEB. Even positive news is bad news to them.

We should take note of some of what they say, but not all of it.

[Minerbarejet]

Who celebrated the milestone?
Is that really 1003 pages and 15031 posts on this thread?
This must be the most vibrant thread in all of ST!
The most vibrant parts are contained in pages 322 to 316 :)

[Dentie]

And only down 76% from 3 years ago - ouch!

And only up 83% from 6 years ago - yippee!

[Balance]

Almost up to 500 pages on this share - a sure sign of people doing their dough! Simply, the success of a share is in inverse proportion to the number of posts about it.

Prophetic indeed!

[Balance]

23 Nov 2013 :
Good on you Hancocks, I'm with you 100%. I'm waiting for this Great Company to for fill it's FULL POTENTIAL, all the Doom and Gloomers should sell their shares now and buy something they believe in, maybe Virgin Galactic.

Sp then was $1.29, it went as high as $1.75 in 2014 - after the very bullish comments by the company, especially the Chairman's 'tens of thousands of tests' pre Christmas 2013 interview with ODT.

You will note from the discussions around that time that I, Balance, was one of the posters who did not share the views of the doomers and gloomers.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd&p=444180&highlight=#post444180

So what has changed?

Well, for starters PEB has not met any of the bullish milestones, projections and cashflow comments - in fact, the company has steered clear of providing any follow up data. Instead, it shocked the market with a capital raising in 2015 after telling the market its previous rights issue would carry it through to profitability and positive cashflow.

Any wonder then why the sp is off 76% since the heady days of 2014?

[Balance]

Why do you bother with this thread? Can you name me one topic or thread you have made a positive comment about.... anything but not Donald Trump please.

You can try HBL, TIL, THL, SCL to name 4.

Reason why I bother with the thread? Read post #15037 above. Holding PEB to account is imo an essential part of balancing the incessant bullish comments by the company and believers, when the company has not been prepared to front up when there have been delays, costs over-runs and negative news.

Read through this thread and you will read that I accurately predicted their last capital raising, allowing those who followed my assessment to avoid further losses when the rights issue was indeed announced. Call it public service and sharing ideas.

I thought this is part of what ST is about?

Or is it just for those who want nothing but hot air to be blown up the proverbial of the company and its management?

[percy]

Why do you bother with this thread? Can you name me one topic or thread you have made a positive comment about.... anything but not Donald Trump please.

Balance's positive comments on threads such as HBL.TIL and SCL have made a great deal of money for those of us who have followed his advice.
And his negative posts on this thread,NZO,PRC and the many "backdoor" listings, have saved us losing it.!
A savvy investor we can all learn from.

[winner69]

23 Nov 2013 :



Any wonder then why the sp is off 76% since the heady days of 2014?

So a potential 300% gain if it gets back to the heady days of 2014

Anda new deck for David

[Balance]

So a potential 300% gain if it gets back to the heady days of 2014

Anda new deck for David

Haha - and tens of thousands of beers for Chris Swann, if he hasn't already sold all of his shares?

[OldGuy]

I know where I'd like to shove swann's "SEVERAL tens of thousands...."

[Balance]

Balance's positive comments on threads such as HBL.TIL and SCL have made a great deal of money for those of us who have followed his advice.
And his negative posts on this thread,NZO,PRC and the many "backdoor" listings, have saved us losing it.!
A savvy investor we can all learn from.

Thanks Percy.

Wish what we write as our input could have been of some utility for them in making their own investment decisions and that's their choice as to what they choose to do their own assessment with.

With backdoor listings, we know it's mostly all hype with initial promoters making off with the gains day 1 and leaving those who buy into the hype stranded with cash burning investments - but every bull market attracts a new generation of 'investors' who think they know better. The market is after all littered with the losses sustained by those enticed into backdoors - Plus SMS, CER, Snakk, VML etc etc.

Warren Buffett famously said 'First rule of investing is NOT to lose money."

As usual, DYOR.

[When the bass drops]

Any thoughts on what a Trump victory might look like for PEB specifically?

[Balance]

Any thoughts on what a Trump victory might look like for PEB specifically?

PEB expected to be a beneficiary of Obamacare.

[Balance]

PEB expected to be a beneficiary of Obamacare.

Nov 2013 : 'The politically divisive ''Obamacare'' health plan in the US also offers Pacific Edge the tantalising prospect of health customers numbering in the tens of millions. Mr Swann welcomed Obamacare as ''an opportunity'', but the legislative changes meant Pacific Edge had to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, but he hopes it will be through early in 2014.'

It's 2016 - no accreditation yet and it's back to square 1 soon.

Assessment : Capital raising and rights issue coming up. 1 for 3 at 30 cents?

[winner69]

Nov 2013 : 'The politically divisive ''Obamacare'' health plan in the US also offers Pacific Edge the tantalising prospect of health customers numbering in the tens of millions. Mr Swann welcomed Obamacare as ''an opportunity'', but the legislative changes meant Pacific Edge had to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, but he hopes it will be through early in 2014.'

It's 2016 - no accreditation yet and it's back to square 1 soon.

Assessment : Capital raising and rights issue coming up. 1 for 3 at 30 cents?

'Tens of millions' is a big number - opportunity plus

[Balance]

'Tens of millions' is a big number - opportunity plus

You think he actually meant 'Tens of millions of dollars' from shareholders? Disguised as customers?

[skid]

One small problem(since yesterday) trade tariffs--If trump actually puts his talk into practice,those depending on exporting are going to have a rocky road.

[Leftfield]

One small problem(since yesterday) trade tariffs--If trump actually puts his talk into practice,those depending on exporting are going to have a rocky road.

Much remains to be seen. As I understand it PEB has an operating lab in USA and as such could be seen as 'local'. Example; Honda has a huge investment in auto manufacture in USA..... I would think that Honda's treatment will be different from 'foreign' auto manufacturers who don't manufacture in USA.

However it is early days and there will be plenty of discussion on all such legislation.

[Minerbarejet]

One small problem(since yesterday) trade tariffs--If trump actually puts his talk into practice,those depending on exporting are going to have a rocky road.If you are referring to PEB:
Yes, I can just see containers of pisspots stacking up on the wharf.:eek2:

PEDUSA. USA company employing USA people employed in helping USA victims of Bladder Cancer
Is there any problem with that?

Trump probably hasn't even had time to digest the fact that he has won, never mind what he should try and get approval to actually do about trade, if anything.

[skid]

If you are referring to PEB:
Yes, I can just see containers of pisspots stacking up on the wharf.:eek2:

PEDUSA. USA company employing USA people employed in helping USA victims of Bladder Cancer
Is there any problem with that?

Trump probably hasn't even had time to digest the fact that he has won, never mind what he should try and get approval to actually do about trade, if anything.

No problem at all--but it depends on how they legislate(if at all)--His isolationist attitude is a pretty big part of his ravings--Just something to keep tabs on --who knows whats going to happen--american co.s could still have a sweeter deal (especially if they kick up a fuss)no stacking up on the wharf-just an addition cost. I would agree though that it is not an immediate issue--But all that red tape coming up will most likely slow the process even further---This is a major change in policy. business as usual,with negotiations? I dont think so--Who in their right mind would enter into a major agreement in this new climate with so much up in the air.

[When the bass drops]

No problem at all--but it depends on how they legislate(if at all)--His isolationist attitude is a pretty big part of his ravings--Just something to keep tabs on --who knows whats going to happen--american co.s could still have a sweeter deal (especially if they kick up a fuss) I would agree though that it is not an immediate issue--But all that red tape coming up will most likely slow the process even further---This is a major change in policy.

I do agree that PEB won't immediately be affected by this change in government and ideology. It would be idiotic (but I guess anything is possible) for the election of Trump to result in a change to American medicines school of thought specific to bladder cancer treatment of "Let's stay with the cytology/cystoscopy approach and scrap all these new non-invasive innovations so that our best and brightest US urologists maintain their large revenues" or "We'll pursue the technology of American born-and-bred innovators, even though studies are showing a NZ-headquartered company has a superior test, as our new protectionist slant requires us to put American profits first."

I doubt the reactionary wheels of 'sending foreign companies packing' will be turning in a real hurry, considering the long-road and hoops that companies like PEB need to go through to get cut-through in the US system. PEB has already come a long way. There are other companies (US based) that offer similar technologies to PEB, and it would be a madness for a lot of this work to be undone, so I'm not in panic mode. Trump, although abrasive in rhetoric, will be reeled in somewhat by the Republican movement and won't be making the 'insane' decisions many people think he will.

As Minerbarejet said, how can something in the bladder cancer space, with the capacity to assist vast US citizens, be shown the door in the near future just because they were born and bred in NZ?

[skid]

I do agree that PEB won't immediately be affected by this change in government and ideology. It would be idiotic (but I guess anything is possible) for the election of Trump to result in a change to American medicines school of thought specific to bladder cancer treatment of "Let's stay with the cytology/cystoscopy approach and scrap all these new non-invasive innovations so that our best and brightest US urologists maintain their large revenues" or "We'll pursue the technology of American born-and-bred innovators, even though studies are showing a NZ-headquartered company has a superior test, as our new protectionist slant requires us to put American profits first."

I doubt the reactionary wheels of 'sending foreign companies packing' will be turning in a real hurry, considering the long-road and hoops that companies like PEB need to go through to get cut-through in the US system. PEB has already come a long way. There are other companies (US based) that offer similar technologies to PEB, and it would be a madness for a lot of this work to be undone, so I'm not in panic mode. Trump, although abrasive in rhetoric, will be reeled in somewhat by the Republican movement and won't be making the 'insane' decisions many people think he will.

As Minerbarejet said, how can something in the bladder cancer space, with the capacity to assist vast US citizens, be shown the door in the near future just because they were born and bred in NZ?

Not shown the door--not just stay with cytology--but IF it happened ,it would mean an additional cost to bring it to market--The American public,or insurance co.s would decide if its still worth paying more for---It would be down the line,or maybe never(or they may get into the trade barrier thing sooner than we think--It may be his pet project,who knows?..(those rust belt workers are gonna want payback)---Your statement did need correcting though.(dont confuse ethics with economics-they are 2 different things)

[trader_jackson]

One small problem(since yesterday) trade tariffs--If trump actually puts his talk into practice,those depending on exporting are going to have a rocky road.

Just imagine how bad it will be for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare! They manufacture in Mexico for the US Market! They are up nearly 5% today.. this is truly crazy!

Pacific Edge have a lab in US so not really any issue for them

[kiora]

Just imagine how bad it will be for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare! They manufacture in Mexico for the US Market! They are up nearly 5% today.. this is truly crazy!

Pacific Edge have a lab in US so not really any issue for them

Yes BUT FPH labor costs just got a whole lot cheaper with Peso devaluation

[trader_jackson]

Yes BUT FPH labor costs just got a whole lot cheaper with Peso devaluation

They are going to have to get at least 35% cheaper (this is what Trump has proposed I believe)

[Dentie]

The tariffs will all balance themselves out once we apply 35% to Boeing jets and John Deere tractors....:t_up:

[Carpenterjoe]

http://www.curetoday.com/articles/using-biomarkers-in-bladder-cancer-diagnosis-and-monitoring?p=2

[Balance]

http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/mdxhealths-assuremdx-multicenter-validation-study-published-in-the-journal-of-urology-20161110-00029

http://mdxhealth.com/sites/mdxhealth.com/files/MDxHealth%202016%20corporate%20presentation%20Jan% 202016.pdf

PEB can learn something from MDxH with its presentation - let's see what happens on 24th Nov.

[Minerbarejet]

http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/mdxhealths-assuremdx-multicenter-validation-study-published-in-the-journal-of-urology-20161110-00029

http://mdxhealth.com/sites/mdxhealth.com/files/MDxHealth%202016%20corporate%20presentation%20Jan% 202016.pdf

PEB can learn something from MDxH with its presentation - let's see what happens on 24th Nov.What a splendid idea, lets do that.
Catch you later.

[skid]

Its time for some serious research on what affect the Trump victory will have on the healthcare industry--Im not saying either way,but it is without a doubt the biggest factor ATM on where a company like PEB is going--The rule book is going to change (for better or worse)
Most are predicting there will be a period of uncertainty and confusion.How long ,we dont know.
there will be more and more articles coming up on how Trump will affect different industries.

This is a BIG change for American politics and policies---those who keep up will benefit from the knowledge

[Leftfield]

Its time for some serious research on what affect the Trump victory will have on the healthcare industry--....

This is a BIG change for American politics and policies---those who keep up will benefit from the knowledge

Constant change is always expected.

I suspect any BIG changes in the USA will take time and be well discussed/signalled. In the meantime it is business as usual. The reality is that the USA needs trade with other countries to remain competitive and to assist its exports, strategic alliances etc as much as we need USA.

If the USA closes doors on trade, it won't happen overnight, and we can be sure other doors will open. PEB's moves in Singapore (and other countries) may now be seen as a positive strength. Canada could become very interesting for NZ as per this article. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/feminist-trudeau-bites-tongue-plays-nice-with-divisive-trump

But in the meantime it is business as usual and looking forward to the update Nov 24.

[Grunter]

I feel Trump will benefit Pacific Edge.

Repealing the Affordable Care Act will allow Pacific Edge to possibly charge higher prices for their tests

[skid]

Constant change is always expected.

I suspect any BIG changes in the USA will take time and be well discussed/signalled. In the meantime it is business as usual. The reality is that the USA needs trade with other countries to remain competitive and to assist its exports, strategic alliances etc as much as we need USA.

If the USA closes doors on trade, it won't happen overnight, and we can be sure other doors will open. PEB's moves in Singapore (and other countries) may now be seen as a positive strength. Canada could become very interesting for NZ as per this article. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/feminist-trudeau-bites-tongue-plays-nice-with-divisive-trump

But in the meantime it is business as usual and looking forward to the update Nov 24.

They are already signaled---Everyone seems to all be making the same mistake,interrupting a move towards protectionism as stopping imports/exports--thats not the case--Its about imposing tarrifs which rather than stop imports,it makes them more expensive.
This is not business as usual imo. how would you like to be in the middle of very lengthy negotiations to get your product accepted ,only to find everything put on the back burner while things become clearer. I personaly thing no one is going to sign a major deal when they dont know just how this redical change in gov. is going to affect things---trump is not business as usual.

[skid]

I feel Trump will benefit Pacific Edge.

Repealing the Affordable Care Act will allow Pacific Edge to possibly charge higher prices for their tests

Could you elaborate?

[When the bass drops]

They are already signaled---Everyone seems to all be making the same mistake,interrupting a move towards protectionism as stopping imports/exports--thats not the case--Its about imposing tarrifs which rather than stop imports,it makes them more expensive.
This is not business as usual imo. how would you like to be in the middle of very lengthy negotiations to get your product accepted ,only to find everything put on the back burner while things become clearer. I personaly thing no one is going to sign a major deal when they dont know just how this redical change in gov. is going to affect things---trump is not business as usual.

I do concede that there is a risk things will take even longer, but I don't think this will stop PEB from being successful. The frustrating inertia in the US medical space may prolong, but eventually a urologist (or many) will be sued for mis-diagnosis and the old dinosaur methods will begin to be replaced by more accurate/better tests. The tariffs are likely to affect the bottom line one way or another, but this will be the reality all foreign operators will be subject to. The better more accurate test will win out in the end in my view.

[Balance]

I feel Trump will benefit Pacific Edge.

Repealing the Affordable Care Act will allow Pacific Edge to possibly charge higher prices for their tests

Not according to PEB. In fact, the exact opposite.

This is what PEB stated in May 2013 : "Significant change is underway within the USA healthcare system under the much-publicised 'Obamacare' (Affordable Care Act) and there is renewed focus on shifting healthcare from a cost plus mentality to a value based approach.

This change is heralded by many as an exciting opportunity for new technologies to be able to be recognised for their ability to increase efficacy and lower overall costs.

Where this is the case, greater value could otherwise be expected to flow from these technologies. Treatment of bladder cancer incurs the highest total medical costs of any cancer.

In the United States this figure is approaching US$200,000 per patient from detection until death. In the USA there are expected to be in excess of 1,000,000 people presenting to their healthcare provider this year with blood in their urine (haematuria).

It is anticipated that the USA healthcare system could invest in excess of $1 billion this year in investigating haematuria."

[Yoda]

Not according to PEB. In fact, the exact opposite.



"In the United States this figure is approaching US$200,000 per patient from detection until death.

It is anticipated that the USA healthcare system could invest in excess of $1 billion this year in investigating haematuria."

It is interesting as obesity and its associated illnesses is said to bankrupt the US health system in a few short years , so there might not be much money left for anything else.!,

[Grunter]

Not according to PEB. In fact, the exact opposite.

This is what PEB stated in May 2013 : "Significant change is underway within the USA healthcare system under the much-publicised 'Obamacare' (Affordable Care Act) and there is renewed focus on shifting healthcare from a cost plus mentality to a value based approach.

This change is heralded by many as an exciting opportunity for new technologies to be able to be recognised for their ability to increase efficacy and lower overall costs.

Where this is the case, greater value could otherwise be expected to flow from these technologies. Treatment of bladder cancer incurs the highest total medical costs of any cancer.

In the United States this figure is approaching US$200,000 per patient from detection until death. In the USA there are expected to be in excess of 1,000,000 people presenting to their healthcare provider this year with blood in their urine (haematuria).

It is anticipated that the USA healthcare system could invest in excess of $1 billion this year in investigating haematuria."

So what they are saying is that the Insurers would move away from more expensive investigative techniques (cystoscopy) to less expensive (urine tests). NOT that the price PEB can charge for their tests will decrease as a result of repealing Obamacare.

Insurers under Obamacare face pressure to source medical costs at the lowest possible price as they are obligated by law to cover anyone and everyone at affordable premiums. Thus there is immense pressure to keep the cost of healthcare as low as possible so that they have a hope of making a profit from insuring millions of people below their actuarial cost of insurance.

Healthcare is expected to benefit from Trump's policies due to less regulation and less restriction on medical cost inflation - evidenced by the surge in healthcare stocks immediately after the election.

PEB stands to benefit because they are no longer under the same cost-minimising pressures as it becomes easier for Insurers to balance the cost of healthcare by setting premium levels they want. Having worked with the US healthcare industry in the insurance field, I have seen first hand how healthcare operates - the hospital bill always comes as an "insured version" and an "uninsured version". Guess which has huge markups on every piece of equipment used.

[skid]

So what they are saying is that the Insurers would move away from more expensive investigative techniques (cystoscopy) to less expensive (urine tests). NOT that the price PEB can charge for their tests will decrease as a result of repealing Obamacare.

Insurers under Obamacare face pressure to source medical costs at the lowest possible price as they are obligated by law to cover anyone and everyone at affordable premiums. Thus there is immense pressure to keep the cost of healthcare as low as possible so that they have a hope of making a profit from insuring millions of people below their actuarial cost of insurance.

Healthcare is expected to benefit from Trump's policies due to less regulation and less restriction on medical cost inflation - evidenced by the surge in healthcare stocks immediately after the election.

PEB stands to benefit because they are no longer under the same cost-minimising pressures as it becomes easier for Insurers to balance the cost of healthcare by setting premium levels they want. Having worked with the US healthcare industry in the insurance field, I have seen first hand how healthcare operates - the hospital bill always comes as an "insured version" and an "uninsured version". Guess which has huge markups on every piece of equipment used.

Under Obamacare,far more people would be insured imo,even if the unit charges would be less.I believe there will be a sizable segment of the population that will fall through the cracks.
It is far better to get a smaller slice of alot of things than a bigger slice of fewer things-(thats just economics 101)-Under deregulation there will be quite possibly many people who will not have a hope of getting the benefit of CX. the ''haves'' are far fewer in number than the ''have nots''(that would still be eligible for Obamacare)----This is not an administration that is going to look after its people.
Of course,you still have to talk those private insurance co.s to jump on board even to get the smaller numbers at a more expensive price
You are only looking at one side of the equation---look at what the formula is for some of the most successful co.s and you will see it is organizations that sell to the multitudes.
It could also be argued that insurance companies ,flush with assets,are going to be able to afford to let urologists have their way and fall back on their preferred option of cytology,which is entrenched in the system.
PEBs battle for acceptance has just been set back like a game of snakes and ladders.---Gunter ,how much evidence of PEB have you seem in the insurance industry you work in?

[Balance]

PEB stands to benefit because they are no longer under the same cost-minimising pressures as it becomes easier for Insurers to balance the cost of healthcare by setting premium levels they want. Having worked with the US healthcare industry in the insurance field, I have seen first hand how healthcare operates - the hospital bill always comes as an "insured version" and an "uninsured version". Guess which has huge markups on every piece of equipment used.

So PEB was gilding the lily when it stated in May 2013 that Obamacare would be great for its business in the US?

[Grunter]

It is far better to get a smaller slice of alot of things than a bigger slice of fewer things-(thats just economics 101)

-Gunter ,how much evidence of PEB have you seem in the insurance industry you work in?

Economics 101 would be to sell fewer units at a higher price if it maximises your profit over selling more units at a lower price, Skid. PEB isn't in a perfectly competitive market - it has a relatively unique product with high barriers to entry, and is a disruptor in it's field.

I left the medical insurance industry prior to PEB being released in the market, but have specifically worked in cost containment areas in both the US and Singapore

[Leftfield]

So PEB was gilding the lily when it stated in May 2013 that Obamacare would be great for its business in the US?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biotech-m-a-idUSKBN1360DC

It is way too early to assume anything re PEB's chances in the USA arising from the likely dismantling of Obama care. Indeed there are already reports emerging (RNZ News) that Obama care won't be axed in entirety.

I doubt PEB were 'guilding the lily' way back in 2013. Merely stating a facts as they saw them way back then, and thank you Grunter for your views.

Times are changing, and good companies will be measured by how they cope with these changes.

[skid]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biotech-m-a-idUSKBN1360DC

It is way too early to assume anything re PEB's chances in the USA arising from the likely dismantling of Obama care. Indeed there are already reports emerging (RNZ News) that Obama care won't be axed in entirety.

I doubt PEB were 'guilding the lily' way back in 2013. Merely stating a facts as they saw them way back then, and thank you Grunter for your views.

Times are changing, and good companies will be measured by how they cope with these changes.

Oh Dear...

[Leftfield]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/12/business/insurers-unprepared-for-obamacare-repeal.html?&hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

[Carpenterjoe]

Ongoing insurance issue's,

Charging $3000 for a test you can purchase for $350Au is BS.

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.michigan.gov/documents/difs/BCBSM_154158_538084_7.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiX0q_E-6PQAhXEoJQKHdiBCqQ4ChAWCD8wBA&usg=AFQjCNEfItrSetXV6-RCDq-H7bkW_3CiAg&sig2=dq-Euk5LWsnenSE8sQHIRQ

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.michigan.gov/documents/difs/BCBSM_154322_536757_7.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwiX0q_E-6PQAhXEoJQKHdiBCqQ4ChAWCD0wAw&usg=AFQjCNFGShy7XQR8-OZ1iaGrSfnOoMEuSA&sig2=l_eH945NOOXfyyFmiKV7kA

[Leftfield]

Looks good..... still early days and still awaiting financial update 24 Nov.

POSITIVE RESULTS IN KAISER PERMANENTE USER PROGRAMME

Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge (NZX: PEB) has advised that it has
successfully completed its analysis of the data from the large scale Kaiser
Permanente (Kaiser) User Programme with positive and compelling findings.

The performance of Pacific Edge's Cxbladder Triage test was evaluated in a
large, blinded study (User Programme) on consenting Kaiser patients, with
findings equivalent to the previously published performance for Cxbladder
Triage. Kaiser is currently completing its own analysis of the data, with the
joint analysis to be submitted for scientific and clinical publication.

[When the bass drops]

Looks good..... still early days and still awaiting financial update 24 Nov.

POSITIVE RESULTS IN KAISER PERMANENTE USER PROGRAMME

Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge (NZX: PEB) has advised that it has
successfully completed its analysis of the data from the large scale Kaiser
Permanente (Kaiser) User Programme with positive and compelling findings.

The performance of Pacific Edge's Cxbladder Triage test was evaluated in a
large, blinded study (User Programme) on consenting Kaiser patients, with
findings equivalent to the previously published performance for Cxbladder
Triage. Kaiser is currently completing its own analysis of the data, with the
joint analysis to be submitted for scientific and clinical publication.

Good.. I don't think it will affect the price much on this occasion as the market would like to see exactly what those results are.

[iluab]

The next test is whether or not PEB can secure an exclusive contract, good test results are good, but if it just means they are given access to compete with several other competitive providers, some of whom will be entrenched, some of whom are new and innovative like Cxbladder, than this user programme is worth really very little.

Hopefully they can show some hard ball commercial negotiation skills and make something of it, what are the odds ?

[pierre]

The next test is whether or not PEB can secure an exclusive contract, good test results are good, but if it just means they are given access to compete with several other competitive providers, some of whom will be entrenched, some of whom are new and innovative like Cxbladder, than this user programme is worth really very little.

Hopefully they can show some hard ball commercial negotiation skills and make something of it, what are the odds ?

Surely there is a way to add an even more negative spin to this news - where is that Legend with about 6000 posts on this thread?

[When the bass drops]

Surely there is a way to add an even more negative spin to this news - where is that Legend with about 6000 posts on this thread?

There will certainly be a negative slant pierre, which I find a constant drawl now with some posters. It will be measured against timeframes spoken about by the company in the past, rather than highlighting the good things that are beginning to happen now.

[Minerbarejet]

The next test is whether or not PEB can secure an exclusive contract, good test results are good, but if it just means they are given access to compete with several other competitive providers, some of whom will be entrenched, some of whom are new and innovative like Cxbladder, than this user programme is worth really very little.

Hopefully they can show some hard ball commercial negotiation skills and make something of it, what are the odds ?Very good one would think.
To get the VA on board, the DOD and Tricare is definitely the result of hardball commercial negotiation.
Or perhaps you would think that was easy.

[Balance]

Must admit am surprised 'tens of millions' opportunities not mentioned in the announcement - a big thumbs up to PEB!

Underwriters trying to get sp up to suck punters in? :D

[Bing]

This is very significant news in my mind, although the contract hasn’t been signed yet so a bit of caution is advised. The market sure seems to like it anyway.
If they pull it off the revenue implications are potentially huge, depending on how KP decides to use cxTriage in their clinical process.
A large study of 2000 participants with great results is exactly what the medical community wants and will make them take notice. Don’t underestimate the importance of this.
An endorsement by KP will be great for Pacific Edge and will certainly give them a lot of clout.

[trader_jackson]

Underwriters trying to get sp up to suck punters in? :D

Well... from the scaremongering (like that of NBR comments on XRO 4 years ago), to the insto's pumping up the price... seems we've all heard it before...

Bringing up the 'tried and true underwriters pumping up the price card'...when you have to pull out this card you really must be running out of ideas to bring PEB down... not surprised, all the other 'cards' seem to have been pulled out multiple times recently... the continued momentum and steps PEB has been making in the past 6 months is looking very promising, so resorting to reaons that are year(s) old isn't surprising I suppose ;) (oh and there have been no SSH notices of any major institutions selling down, in fact the last SSH's notices I saw was of these insto's buying more, at the expense of the retail seller panic that occurs every now and then)

Volume is pretty good so if the insto's must be doing a good job (if the are in fact dumping) of making people pay above 20% premium to Friday last week ;)

Aside from this oustanding endorsement, I like the "negotiate a commercial relationship" part at the end...

[Snow Leopard]

At the end of the day, todays announcement does not justify the increase in share price.

Take it away Diana:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GtyMeEcPPE

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Minerbarejet]

One thing that occurs to me is that CMS may very well have been waiting for the results of this User Program too.
Validation of 2000 tests on their own population would likely score enough points for CMS to take some action.
Good to see over 1m in volume and a bit of blue sky in view for a change.

[Carpenterjoe]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/bright-prospects-bladder-test

[iluab]

At the end of the day, todays announcement does not justify the increase in share price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Agree, some folk are mistaking study results with a conversion to commercial transaction, there's an awful long way to go for that to happen, and PEB need that contract to be exclusive for it to be a meaningful contribution to revenues.

Hopefully they can drag it across the line, it's all down now to senior KP urologists and whether it's worth moving away from the status quo treatment, and the relative cost benefit of Cx above what the status quo already adequately provides them.

Quite an innovative co though KP, they might just do it.

[Bing]

Pacific Edge convinced KP to do a trial of cxTriage over all the competing products out there. Give them some credit for that. No one else has managed to do it so far.
The fact that KP did a large study (time + money) suggests to me that they already would have done some homework on the cost benefits should the study confirm the performance of the product .
The contract negotiation would be for cxTriage. For a competitor to come in at this point they would I imagine need to convince KP to do another study and that their product is so much better and cheaper.

I fully agree that caution is advised until such time as a contract has been signed. I fully expect one will be but it remains to be seen how advantageous it is for Pacific Edge. I think KP will be skilled negotiators.
Whatever the outcome a published study of 2000 participants with the endorsement of KP is fantastic. To get bodies like Blue Cross and the Urological Society of America on board this is exactly what is needed as they continue to cite the lack of published results as a barrier for acceptance.

[Leftfield]

Well said Bing

[Minerbarejet]

We also shouldn't forget that KP has been looking for something like CX bladder for years. Even to the extent of putting their own venture capital into that Predictive outfit that later went bust after CMS refused them coverage basically for not being good enough.
The question therefore still remains: Will KP adopt cx bladder?
If it is satisfied with the results then the huge savings over cystoscopy in Triage become obvious for a nonprofit organisation.

[Balance]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pac-edge-shares-9-after-positive-results-medical-trial-b-196675

Net cash outflows to operating activities according to annual reports :

To 31 March 2016 - $16.95 million
To 31 March 2015 - $12.54 million
To 31 March 2014 - $9.52 million
To 31 March 2013 - $6.71 million

[Minerbarejet]

Yeah well NBR, ODT, Sharechat and every other Google alert so far have been unable to spot the glaring error that is obvious in that article.
PEB has not traded anywhere near 9 cents recently so I wont be putting too much store in publications that cant even check the facts and just pass it on.

If in doubt, check it out.

[winner69]

Don't forget what David's idea of "successful commercialisation" really is

[Balance]

Don't forget what David's idea of "successful commercialisation" really is

As in Aborgen? 13 years after he left and it's still bleeding cash flow and losses?

BTW - did you know that Aborgen proudly announced the sale of its 10th billion seedling a few years ago? Imagine if they can charge just 10c a seedling!

[Balance]

Yeah well NBR, ODT, Sharechat and every other Google alert so far have been unable to spot the glaring error that is obvious in that article.
PEB has not traded anywhere near 9 cents recently so I wont be putting too much store in publications that cant even check the facts and just pass it on.

If in doubt, check it out.

Wow!

First time I have seen a PEB(bler) ignores and criticizes a positive article on PEB and asks readers to ignore the article!

And all due to an incorrect word 'at' instead of 'up' 9c!

[When the bass drops]

Wow!

First time I have seen a PEB(bler) ignores and criticizes a positive article on PEB and asks readers to ignore the article!

And all due to an incorrect word 'at' instead of 'up' 9c!

Balance, we'll let you know when we start taking your assertions seriously again about PEB. Don't assume there are many left who do. For as far as I can tell, you're no longer constructively contributing to the discussion.

[Minerbarejet]

Wow!

First time I have seen a PEB(bler) ignores and criticizes a positive article on PEB and asks readers to ignore the article!

And all due to an incorrect word 'at' instead of 'up' 9c!
Lol.
Did it sound like someone you know, Balance.
Take some minor item and make a huge fuss about it.
Gotcha
:)

[Balance]

Balance, we'll let you know when we start taking your assertions seriously again about PEB. Don't assume there are many left who do. For as far as I can tell, you're no longer constructively contributing to the discussion.

I can proudly acknowledge those who have written on this forum and via PM thanking me for my contributions which have saved them from losses and/or more losses, and for assisting them to make gains.

Can you say the same for yourself or other PEB(lers)?

[When the bass drops]

I can proudly acknowledge those who have written on this forum and via PM thanking me for my contributions which have saved them from losses and/or more losses, and for assisting them to make gains.

Can you say the same for yourself or other PEB(lers)?

I don't doubt that Balance. I can't deny you've made some good picks in the past, that people have followed and benefited from. However when a poster starts denigrating even good news, which I feel some of us are including yourself, their views go from rational to caustic (for the sake of drama it seems).

Let's all raise the level as STMOD puts it (myself included), however a little vent is necessary sometimes. I don't apologise.

[bottomfeeder]

A lot of good news for Wynyard over the years as well. I am cautious about PEB and when they will get into positive Cash Flow.

[iluab]

A lot of good news for Wynyard over the years as well. I am cautious about PEB and when they will get into positive Cash Flow.

And, it's looking increasingly likely PEB will need a CR next year. But, will they any longer be able to raise capital on the NZX after so so so many failed commercial goals and expectations, I reckon the next time around will be challenging for them, and they may fall short of what they want at any price.

If only they could gather revenues to a timley plan all would be rosy, they are making progress, it's just too damn slowly to prospectively remain solvent.

Harbour still have around 9% of PEB just like they have around 9% trapped in WYN.

Remember this expectation;


8450

[Schrodinger]

Interesting watching this from the sidelines. What is the general feel about operating cashflows? If it is near or above the -$17M this year they will have to have a stunning increase in sales to stop another raise. Also to avoid a "Wynyard" they will have to show good governance if the sales dont match up. Could be a discounted raise if thats the case...who will invest and at what price?

[iluab]

Interesting watching this from the sidelines. What is the general feel about operating cashflows? If it is near or above the -$17M this year they will have to have a stunning increase in sales to stop another raise. Also to avoid a "Wynyard" they will have to show good governance if the sales dont match up. Could be a discounted raise if thats the case...who will invest and at what price?

The last Edison report (June) estimated FY17 outturns as 11.3m in revenues, EBITDA of -6.7m, NPAT of -7.5m, with 20.8m cash on hand. Although, every report Edison produce they tend to downgrade their estimates yet again, and that EBITDA estimate just seems very optimistic to me. But lets see, we get HY results on the 24th.

We had some good news in regard to the KP study, but it's unlikley that would translate to meaningful revenues in a meaningful time frame.

Personally, at this time, I wouldn't be buying PEB above 15c, but lets see, perhaps they will surprise us next week for the first time in three years or so, I genuinely hope so for shareholders.

[OldGuy]

having already a lost substantial on PEB, I would probably take another punt if the SP falls below 10 cents.

[When the bass drops]

having already a lost substantial on PEB, I would probably take another punt if the SP falls below 10 cents.

Hi OldGuy, what was the timeframe that you were looking at for your original hold when you bought into PEB? Was it a small part of a wider portfolio, or was your intention to buy a sizeable holding (above weight) to support the biotech industry?

[OldGuy]

I got caught up in all the hype and hysteria towards the end of 2013, when Chris Swann was on record saying that they expected to complete "several tens of thousands of tests" in 2014. I ended up buying without doing my own research and entered near the top of its peak, only to sell out about a year ago at 40 cents.

After buying in, I started to do a lot of research on the company and its governance. Then, I attended a meeting with DD at the Ellereslie race course in Auckland (after which I warned others here that things were looking bad).

Not only was I really pissed off by the hype spun by Swann, but I was hit by the fact that DD had very little commercial nous/experience, particularly in the US market (which my own family successfully penetrated years ago). I also realised that DD knew very little about simple economic concepts like demand elasticity and that PEB's pricing strategy was largely arbitrary and unlikely to be optimal. Quite frankly I was shocked by just how bad the commercial side of the business was, and held on in the hope that they would succeed anyway. Fast forward to early this year, and became clear that it just wasnt going to happen. So, I exited and took the loss on the chin.

Lesson learned - DYOR!

[Dentie]

I got caught up in all the hype and hysteria towards the end of 2013, when Chris Swann was on record saying that they expected to complete "several tens of thousands of tests" in 2014. I ended up buying without doing my own research and entered near the top of its peak, only to sell out about a year ago at 40 cents.

After buying in, I started to do a lot of research on the company and its governance. Then, I attended a meeting with DD at the Ellereslie race course in Auckland (after which I warned others here that things were looking bad).

Not only was I really pissed off by the hype spun by Swann, but I was hit by the fact that DD had very little commercial nous/experience, particularly in the US market (which my own family successfully penetrated years ago). I also realised that DD knew very little about simple economic concepts like demand elasticity and that PEB's pricing strategy was largely arbitrary and unlikely to be optimal. Quite frankly I was shocked by just how bad the commercial side of the business was, and held on in the hope that they would succeed anyway. Fast forward to early this year, and became clear that it just wasnt going to happen. So, I exited and took the loss on the chin.

Lesson learned - DYOR!

Well Old Guy, you have impressed me with your honesty - so my hat goes off to you sir!

Although accurate analysis is easy to put together retrospectively and hence easy to make sense of previous decisions (good or bad), it is very much harder to do it in a predictive manner.

You are correct when you say DYOR - and it is especially important to do it prior to buying in.

I genuinely wish you better luck with your future investments.

[OldGuy]

Thanks Dentie.

While it sounds totally cliche, I would actually be over the moon if my confession helped others rethink their own investments before things (potentially) fall apart.

To me, that is the whole point of this site. Shame that all the angst and stupid posts have eroded it...

[Dentie]

To me, that is the whole point of this site. Shame that all the angst and stupid posts have eroded it...

Unfortunately Old Guy...although there are some very educative and well meaning tips and information that gets posted on ST, the site also suffers from those who fancy themselves as share guru's who have planet sized ego's to match. These are type's who gleefully love to say "I told you so" etc. The important trick is knowing how to filter the latter out!!

The bottom line is, as you have stated, "DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH".;)

[Balance]

pierre: not sure if you are new to this stock or just having a laugh, but Balance is 100% correct (and this is coming from someone who lost more than $100k on this stock).

Thanks for your insight OldGuy.

Hope some learn from our experiences.

[OldGuy]

Thanks Balance, me too,

[When the bass drops]

I got caught up in all the hype and hysteria towards the end of 2013, when Chris Swann was on record saying that they expected to complete "several tens of thousands of tests" in 2014. I ended up buying without doing my own research and entered near the top of its peak, only to sell out about a year ago at 40 cents.

After buying in, I started to do a lot of research on the company and its governance. Then, I attended a meeting with DD at the Ellereslie race course in Auckland (after which I warned others here that things were looking bad).

Not only was I really pissed off by the hype spun by Swann, but I was hit by the fact that DD had very little commercial nous/experience, particularly in the US market (which my own family successfully penetrated years ago). I also realised that DD knew very little about simple economic concepts like demand elasticity and that PEB's pricing strategy was largely arbitrary and unlikely to be optimal. Quite frankly I was shocked by just how bad the commercial side of the business was, and held on in the hope that they would succeed anyway. Fast forward to early this year, and became clear that it just wasnt going to happen. So, I exited and took the loss on the chin.

Lesson learned - DYOR!

Appreciate your story OldGuy. As PEB investors, many of us have come in and out of the stock at different times, hence the varying perspectives.
I have purchased mine at an average of $0.57 over two years, so have minimal baggage.

[Defater]

I have seen the light at last. After these current revelations and lessons from Bishop, sorry I mean Balance I have decided to sell off my One million shares in PEB, take a small loss and move on. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

[whatsup]

I have seen the light at last. After these current revelations and lessons from Bishop, sorry I mean Balance I have decided to sell off my One million shares in PEB, take a small loss and move on. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

Def, IMO I wouldn't advertise that to Mr Market as 1,000,000 shares are hard to sell at the best of times, is a soft market as we have atm almost impossible, unless your fibbing !

[When the bass drops]

I have seen the light at last. After these current revelations and lessons from Bishop, sorry I mean Balance I have decided to sell off my One million shares in PEB, take a small loss and move on. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.

The important thing that people lose sight of is that there are several types of investors in this stock. Those who buy large for the very long-term (5-10 years) (as a way of supporting the biotech industry), those who buy say 10,000 - 50,000 shares as part of their wider portfolio (and give it 3-5 years) and those who buy a small speculative hold (below equal weight) as part of a wider portfolio. There are also those that actively trade of stocks daily such as PEB, make a small gain, and move on. And any number of different investors in between.

One posters advice cannot possibly have "blanket" take-up across all PEB investors, because there is a wide range of motivations as to why someone has bought PEB, when they bought into it (baggage or no baggage), the average price they bought it for, and the different perception of how successful or unsuccessful the stock will be.

If you buy 100,000 shares at $1 each and panic/sell when the share price drops to $0.60, then that is horrible decision making. Your original motivation for buying the 100,000 in the first place, raises questions. Were you under the false pretence (that so many NZ'ers are) that shares are always meant to go up?

Always review your motivation, timeframe to invest for, and long-term perception, before going into any stock. This goes for MFT. This goes for FPH. This goes for WDT. This goes for PEB.

[Balance]

Def, IMO I wouldn't advertise that to Mr Market as 1,000,000 shares are hard to sell at the best of times, is a soft market as we have atm almost impossible, unless your fibbing !

Haha - the buyers at 54c and 53c have all disappeared so must be true. :D

[winner69]

I contributed $20k cash to Pacific Edge's cause a few years ago (cap raise)

Wonder what they did with it


Disc: that contribution allows me to comment on this thread eh

[iluab]

Mr Bass, you are very boldly assuming PEB will even be solvent in 3 to 5 years from now, I strongly recommend a read of the balance sheet in conjunction with knowing PEB have fallen short of analyst revenue expectations at each report for three years or so now.

The investment risk in PEB is ever increasing, and some long term investors (3 to 5 years) will indeed undoubtedly take the opportunity of this bounce in share price to exit, who knows when or if there will be another, in my opinion that seems very much a fair decision for a longie to take.

[Balance]

I contributed $20k cash to Pacific Edge's cause a few years ago (cap raise)

Wonder what they did with it


Disc: that contribution allows me to comment on this thread eh

You can choose between :

1. 32% of Chris Swann's director fees,

2. 3.6% of DD's salary,

3. 4% of $500k fine by NZX, or

4. 0.4% of research expenses.

On an interesting note, see that 28 executives in PEB were paid over$100k last financial year - totaling $5.5m.

[OldGuy]

WTBD: You keep mentioning people investing in PEB because they want to support the biotech industry. Other than IPOs and capital raises, I don't see how that works. Can you please explain?

[whatsup]

WTBD: You keep mentioning people investing in PEB because they want to support the biotech industry. Other than IPOs and capital raises, I don't see how that works. Can you please explain?

O G , Tongue in cheek I suspect !

[OldGuy]

Nope. Please explain.

The biotech companies do not receive any of the money raised by the purchase of shares other than via an IPO or capital raise, so they do not receive any "support" from such transactions...

[winner69]

You can choose between :

1. 32% of Chris Swann's director fees,

2. 3.6% of DD's salary,

3. 4% of $500k fine by NZX, or

4. 0.4% of research expenses.

On an interesting note, see that 28 executives in PEB were paid over$100k last financial year - totaling $5.5m.

I should have put a condition on my donation in support of Pacific Edge that none was to go to Swannie

These were the 55 cent shares and the share price was about 120 when they were issued. Didn't mind supporting PEB in these circumstances

[pierre]

Why don't we all keep calm till the 24th of November - it's only a week away - when the half year results will be released. We will get a pretty good idea at that time as to what's happening in the revenue and cash flow departments. We should all then be able to make informed judgements about progress and as to the potential requirement for a further CR or not.

The repetitious negativity about the company is tedious in the extreme. For those like Balance who are doing God's work in warning off any potential investors in PEB, I think their contributions to the more than 15000 posts over more than 500 pages on ST means they can comfortably take a week off from their mission and relax until the 24th. Your message has been repeated so many times there is little chance of it being either missed or misunderstood.

[winner69]

See I have a vested interested in PEB by donating cash in the past I am allowed to post stuff pre the announcement

Below is how I see the half year cash flows looking like - the pink shaded bits with the history also shown

Please no 'get real' comments - wait until next week

[Snow Leopard]

Wellington Zoo's Sumatran tiger Rokan put down (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11750007)

http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/201647/unspecified2_620x311.jpg

Never bought a PEB share, new or used.

But have made the odd comment every once in a while
and I will continue to do so whenever I want.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[craic]

1009 pages of wishful thinking places this share somewhere between the Yeti and the Lock Ness Monster in the realm of blind faith.

[skid]

Why don't we all keep calm till the 24th of November - it's only a week away - when the half year results will be released. We will get a pretty good idea at that time as to what's happening in the revenue and cash flow departments. We should all then be able to make informed judgements about progress and as to the potential requirement for a further CR or not.

The repetitious negativity about the company is tedious in the extreme. For those like Balance who are doing God's work in warning off any potential investors in PEB, I think their contributions to the more than 15000 posts over more than 500 pages on ST means they can comfortably take a week off from their mission and relax until the 24th. Your message has been repeated so many times there is little chance of it being either missed or misunderstood.

Ahhh...Pierre..you just need a good hug...from your Sa Finne

[Balance]

And, it's looking increasingly likely PEB will need a CR next year. But, will they any longer be able to raise capital on the NZX after so so so many failed commercial goals and expectations, I reckon the next time around will be challenging for them, and they may fall short of what they want at any price.

If only they could gather revenues to a timley plan all would be rosy, they are making progress, it's just too damn slowly to prospectively remain solvent.

Harbour still have around 9% of PEB just like they have around 9% trapped in WYN.

Remember this expectation;


8450

Sobering chart - PEB is not within a mouse squeak of those numbers!

Wonder how the boys and girls at Harbour are justifying their overweight and underwriting position in PEB (especially after the Wynyard debacle).

[OldGuy]

1009 pages of wishful thinking places this share somewhere between the Yeti and the Lock Ness Monster in the realm of blind faith.

poetry in motion

[winner69]

Nope. Please explain.

The biotech companies do not receive any of the money raised by the purchase of shares other than via an IPO or capital raise, so they do not receive any "support" from such transactions...

Even so there does seem many who 'support' the biotech and tech sectors by buying shares in them ....their thinking seems to be along the lines of if punters don't 'support' a company it will die.

Weird

[Baa_Baa]

Even so there does seem many who 'support' the biotech and tech sectors by buying shares in them ....their thinking seems to be along the lines of if punters don't 'support' a company it will die.

Weird

Really, do you really think this winner69, or is this another of your subtle wind-ups? The big money 'supports' the company, they're in for the IPO, and the CR's and occasionally the punters in an SPP who are usually big holders anyway (at the right price). The rest of the retail minions might take a speculative high risk punt on making a 5-10+ bagger, but hopefully investing a rounding error on ones portfolio, though with the potential to be the big win. There has to be some excitement in a portfolio, otherwise this share investing game can be very dull and boring chasing only value plays and earnings plays, few of which seem to be certainties even in themselves.

[Balance]

Really, do you really think this winner69, or is this another of your subtle wind-ups? The big money 'supports' the company, they're in for the IPO, and the CR's and occasionally the punters in an SPP who are usually big holders anyway (at the right price). The rest of the retail minions might take a speculative high risk punt on making a 5-10+ bagger, but hopefully investing a rounding error on ones portfolio, though with the potential to be the big win. There has to be some excitement in a portfolio, otherwise this share investing game can be very dull and boring chasing only value plays and earnings plays, few of which seem to be certainties even in themselves.

To each their own Baa Baa.

Investing is a serious business and it always amazes me how many people willingly put their hard earned money into a speculative stock on a 'tip' while they will spend hours or days researching before they buy a computer or a car.

[skid]

I think Winner is talking about the ''moral support'' we sometimes see ,rather than actual financial support.(which sometimes comes with the accusations of lack of morals for those that dont)
We would all like to see Kiwi companies succeed,but that doesnt mean we automatically put our faith in managements capabilities if they have'nt produced after some time. If they do start,then its worth revisiting.
Many have long memories back to the heady days of astronomical gains ,and others to the days of capital destruction (with managements ''everythings sweet'' updates,aided by some posters,that have since flown the coup)
so its ''It could happen again''(riches) vs ''Im not gonna let that happen again''....more fun next week?--One thing for sure--management will give a glowing report about Kaiser, regardless of what the balance sheet says.

Disc-Ive been in and out a few times so that qualifies me to state my opinion(although some will disagree)---

[bottomfeeder]

I dont hold PEB anymore, lost a little, I sold after the last annual report when their income was just over 1 million. For all those doctors patting them selves on their backs for having such a great product, its commercialization did not look as going to plan. No doubt the doctors who carry out the research are brilliant, but as far as being businessmen, I lack confidence in their abilities. Further ongoing research is expensive, and not always fruitfull. But to be fair to the company, shareprice while an indicator of confidence by the market either up or down, is not the fault of the company. They have a fixed capital and fixed cash balances which will dwindle no doubt. But when investors pay big bucks for an overvalued share, what is the company to do; I know "make an announcement that the high price of the share is not warranted" - DOUBTFUL. However I am disappointed about Directors and Executives selling shares on the open market when the price is high, no matter what reason. Its like a jockey betting on his own race. Insiders should hold shares in a company so that they will share in the profits generated by the companyand their efforts, not to benefit from investors buying and selling the shares. This brings me to another point, too many announcements, which generate hype and affect the share price. Then insiders profiting from this hype, but no ultimate financial substance behind the announcements. I havent noticed many announcements specifying just how much revenue, and subsequent profit affect will result. That is the problem, its all "The future looks good" until the future arrives.

[skid]

They really should devise some sort of system for directors selling into the market(for any company) Even a 2 week in advance would help,instead of after the sale---it really does seem like a form of insider trading as they are obviously privy to information we are not.---

[winner69]

Just that some seem strong on this support thing

Maybe just moral support

Or maybe buying shares knowing they can fully support the company in future by making cash contributions in the next capital raise

[skid]

Just noticed this while looking over some of the horrible things Trump admin wants to do
“I imagine they’ll focus on getting rid of the individual and employer mandates, insurance marketplace requirements and Medicaid expansion,” said Lanhee J. Chen, a scholar at the Hoover Institution and a former policy adviser to Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee.

[When the bass drops]

Couple of big transactions today. Insto?

[When the bass drops]

Nope. Please explain.

The biotech companies do not receive any of the money raised by the purchase of shares other than via an IPO or capital raise, so they do not receive any "support" from such transactions...

OldGuy, my comment regarding 'supporting the industry' is more around the intent (or motivation) of the investor who gains a large exposure of a stock such as PEB. Yes, it's technically not 'supporting' the industry in the classical sense.

A private investor granting an unconditional $4m to Otago University to help cancer research funding would be the classical ' industry support' one would picture.

[skid]

I noticed some think that Gov. medicare may be privatized under Trump--Hard to keep track of it all these days.

[skid]

Couple of big transactions today. Insto?

I think its not so unusual just before announcements..usually ,(but not always)it gains a little in the hopes of something positive.

[OldGuy]

OldGuy, my comment regarding 'supporting the industry' is more around the intent (or motivation) of the investor who gains a large exposure of a stock such as PEB. Yes, it's technically not 'supporting' the industry in the classical sense.

A private investor granting an unconditional $4m to Otago University to help cancer research funding would be the classical ' industry support' one would picture.

No offense, but that doesn't really make sense in the real world. Investing in a company on-market away from IPOs and CRs really provides no support for a company, but nice try :)

[Balance]

No offense, but that doesn't really make sense in the real world. Investing in a company on-market away from IPOs and CRs really provides no support for a company, but nice try :)

Makes some feel that their losses do something for a higher purpose than pay for goodies for the directors and management?

Meanwhile, much anticipated half year results tomorrow:

1. Will PEB finally release actual numbers of tests sold - 3 years after promising 'tens of thousands of tests'.

2. Will receivables actually convert into cash rather than keep piling up waiting to be confirmed and paid,

3. How much cash is left and what is the current level of cash burn,

4. When will be the next capital raise, 3 years after stating that the capital issue then would take the company through to profitability,

5. Will directors and management actually buy some shares on market to show their utmost confidence in the company's future?

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/293154

Issued as bonus at equivalent cash value 48c.

Wonder if they were sold today.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/293154

Issued as bonus at equivalent cash value 48c.

Wonder if they were sold today.

A bonus ....for successful commerialisation

[bottomfeeder]

I may be wrong, but who gets bonuses, when the company is not yet profitable. We will see tomorrow. It is unfortunate that companies see themselves responsible for their share price. They feel that they need to give out good news to raise it. Issuing these shares as a bonus a day before the results announcement is bad practice, and moreso if the result is less than spectacular.

[pierre]

A bonus ....for successful commerialisation

I think that must be a pretty unique achievement and probably deserving of a bonus - lol.

Discl: I've made more than my share of typos too.

[Balance]

I may be wrong, but who gets bonuses, when the company is not yet profitable. We will see tomorrow. It is unfortunate that companies see themselves responsible for their share price. They feel that they need to give out good news to raise it. Issuing these shares as a bonus a day before the results announcement is bad practice, and moreso if the result is less than spectacular.

Bonuses are also paid against performance (KPIs or KPOs) - which could be sales related or project related.

The small sizes of the bonuses do not fill one with confidence of anything remarkable or outstanding.

[davflaws]

Bonuses are also paid against performance (KPIs or KPOs) - which could be sales related or project related.

The small sizes of the bonuses do not fill one with confidence of anything remarkable or outstanding.

And I suspect that if the bonuses had been anything other than small you would have been even more scathing.

[Balance]

And I suspect that if the bonuses had been anything other than small you would have been even more scathing.

Now would I ever do such a thing, so filled with awe am I that PEB has always done its utmost to keep the market and shareholders well informed and updated?

Oops - forgot about the $500k fine exacted by the FMA and NZX for breach of disclosure. :D

[Minerbarejet]

Well they can always hang onto their bonuses and trade them in when they get to your, what was it now,
3.00?
No, 5.00 it was, back in the good old days when Balance was a bull and New/Old Guy was buying up large.

[winner69]

Well they can always hang onto their bonuses and trade them in when they get to your, what was it now,
3.00?
No, 5.00 it was, back in the good old days when Balance was a bull and New/Old Guy was buying up large.

Even MAC and his DCFs never got a value that high

[Minerbarejet]

Too early.

What is clear is that the sellers*are running away and the offer side is getting awfully thin.

Why sell at $1.10 when it may be worth $5.00 in a year's time?
Left MAC for dead with that one.

[Balance]

Well they can always hang onto their bonuses and trade them in when they get to your, what was it now,
3.00?
No, 5.00 it was, back in the good old days when Balance was a bull and New/Old Guy was buying up large.

$5.00 would indeed be a conservative valuation if:

1. PEB had delivered on its 'tens of thousands of tests' in 2014 (as stated by Chairman Swann),

2. PEB had not come back to the market for more capital (after stating that the 2013 capital raise would take the company through to profitability) and

3. PEB showed that it was on track to US$100m revenue. They had Harbour in a hot sweat expecting over $70m of revenues in 2016, and delivered less than $5m ..... !!!!!!!!

Unfortunately, we all know what happened to all the super bullish comments from PEB and yours truly here take great pride in conveying my assessment of why PEB had to raise capital in 2015 and how it was going to struggle to meet its stated objectives.

[Balance]

“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”

" Fools put trust in promises; The wise in action."

[Baa_Baa]

"There is no limit to the vitriol that fools extend to when disappointed."

[davflaws]

Well they can always hang onto their bonuses and trade them in when they get to your, what was it now,
3.00?
No, 5.00 it was, back in the good old days when Balance was a bull and New/Old Guy was buying up large.
I am starting to understand Balance's position a little better

[Minerbarejet]

8
$5.00 would indeed be a conservative valuation if:

1. PEB had delivered on its 'tens of thousands of tests' in 2014 (as stated by Chairman Swann),

2. PEB had not come back to the market for more capital (after stating that the 2013 capital raise would take the company through to profitability) and

3. PEB showed that it was on track to US$100m revenue. They had Harbour in a hot sweat expecting over $70m of revenues in 2016, and delivered less than $5m ..... !!!!!!!!

Unfortunately, we all know what happened to all the super bullish comments from PEB and yours truly here take great pride in conveying my assessment of why PEB had to raise capital in 2015 and how it was going to struggle to meet its stated objectives.
1.Incorrect. It was "several tens of thousands" as printed by the Otago Daily Times and attributed to Mr Swann. Do you believe everything you read?
2.Did you whilst making your 5.00 prediction have any inkling that it would take three years at least for CMS to step up to the plate.
Neither did they.
You also had no inkling of this when you came to sell your shares around the time that Old Guy was busy buying them. Following this you went on a crusade of scathing outbursts which continues to this day. If you were thinking that your postings here contained sufficient merit to influence others, as you appear to do, then would you feel obliged to reimburse Old Guy to the tune of $100,000 at some stage after getting your financial advisors licence?
3.Ditto
And the sweet irony of it all is that around the time Old Guy was selling at 40c you were buying for short term trades by your own admission.

Do have a nice day tomorrow, I hope they are able to blow the cobwebs away at some stage, the sooner the better.

[OldGuy]

anyone keen to place a friendly bet ahead of the announcement?

[OldGuy]

Nice barbs, miner. You've been sharpening those claws, I see.

[kiwidollabill]

Big day, everyone got their game face on?

My prediction is.... 20-50% increase in rev, similar increase in net loss, another cap raising required in 2017 but lots of optimism. sp will be muted, will progressively decline over 6 mnths, next cap raise @20c.

Disc, no way a holder

[RGR367]

8
1.Incorrect. It was "several tens of thousands" as printed by the Otago Daily Times and attributed to Mr Swann. Do you believe everything you read?
2.Did you whilst making your 5.00 prediction have any inkling that it would take three years at least for CMS to step up to the plate.
Neither did they.
You also had no inkling of this when you came to sell your shares around the time that Old Guy was busy buying them. Following this you went on a crusade of scathing outbursts which continues to this day. If you were thinking that your postings here contained sufficient merit to influence others, as you appear to do, then would you feel obliged to reimburse Old Guy to the tune of $100,000 at some stage after getting your financial advisors licence?
3.Ditto
And the sweet irony of it all is that around the time Old Guy was selling at 40c you were buying for short term trades by your own admission.

Do have a nice day tomorrow, I hope they are able to blow the cobwebs away at some stage, the sooner the better.

Thought so. There's a deeper and more meaningful story behind all these chats among you guys. Thanks for revealing a bit of it :p

Disc: never been a holder but become interesed because of the "lively" (sic) exchanges of opinions

[OldGuy]

And there it is. Loss getting bigger, sales growth weak and revenues this HY lower than the last HY.

[skid]

Well they can always hang onto their bonuses and trade them in when they get to your, what was it now,
3.00?
No, 5.00 it was, back in the good old days when Balance was a bull and New/Old Guy was buying up large.

Aw I get it--anyone who changes their mind as time progresses deserves to be slammed--therefore one who never changes their viewpoint as companies fundamentals change deserve praise--from where Im sitting ,that is just stubbornness.---Disc-I reserve the right to heap praise, if praise is due,or caution if caution is due --Thats what its all about aint it?---The company determines if it is successful...not us. We just observe and decide where we stand.

[Schrodinger]

According to my back of envelope calcs they have less than a years cash save firing staff/selling more or more shares?

[OldGuy]

revenue growth should be exponential at this stage, but it is clearly already slowing down

Condolences to holders, except miner. :p

[winner69]

And there it is. Loss getting bigger, sales growth weak and revenues this HY lower than the last HY.

But OldGuy - you missed this bit -

Total Laboratory Throughput of 5,622 tests, up 72% on pcp due to growing commercial sales and new User Programmes

[OldGuy]

But OldGuy - you missed this bit -

Total Laboratory Throughput of 5,622 tests, up 72% on pcp due to growing commercial sales and new User Programmes

you should buy some then, winner :t_up:

[winner69]

you should buy some then, winner :t_up:

Maybe when they get to 'tens of thousands' .......a month

[trader_jackson]

Good results, looking forward to what should be a great 2nd half, for me, the operating cash flows say it all... outflows barely increased as a result of a 232% increase in receipts from revenue and grant income, while laboratory throughput has nearly doubled from 1H16 (but again, these key numbers still won't be good enough)... revenue outgrowing expenses in a big way, and $14.6m cash on hand (who was scaremongering with the capital raising again? )... oh and they are doing tens of thousands of tests a year ;)

[skid]

But OldGuy - you missed this bit -

Total Laboratory Throughput of 5,622 tests, up 72% on pcp due to growing commercial sales and new User Programmes

is 72% more of a little ,equal to alot?

[winner69]

Receivables increased to $6.4m - whatever that means

[Meister]

and $14.6m cash on hand (who was scaremongering with the capital raising again? )...

Loss has been $6.4m, $9m, now $11.5m for the last three halves. Do you think $14.6m cash on hand is enough?

[blackcap]

Thats a terrible result. Revenue of $3.8m (slowing down) and a loss of $11.5m. Can't last much longer without another cap raise or something....
And then there is the increasing receivables...(from $4m to $6m) mind boggles.

12. GOING CONCERN
While the Company continues to incur operating losses, the Company remains solvent
and continues to meet its debts as they fall due. The cash flows are a critical part of
ensuring the business continues to operate in line with the business strategy adopted
by the Directors. In preparing the financial statements, the Directors have applied the
principles of going concern on the basis that current cash reserves and its ability to
generate cash will be sufficient to meet its debts as they fall due for a minimum of
12 months from signing the financial statements. Given there is uncertainty of future
cash flows at the date of signing these financial statements, a material uncertainty
exists at that date.

[Schrodinger]

Discounted cap raise @$.30?

[skid]

Good results, looking forward to what should be a great 2nd half, for me, the operating cash flows say it all... outflows barely increased as a result of a 232% increase in receipts from revenue and grant income, while laboratory throughput has nearly doubled from 1H16 (but again, these key numbers still won't be good enough)... revenue outgrowing expenses in a big way, and $14.6m cash on hand (who was scaremongering with the capital raising again? )... oh and they are doing tens of thousands of tests a year ;)

Thats the direction they are heading TJ (cap raising)---Meanwhile USA is in turmoil in terms of making decisions on healthcare

[Schrodinger]

To be fair this is common statement but the message is that they either sell more quickly, reduce costs or ask for more capital.

[trader_jackson]

To be fair this is common statement but the message is that they either sell more quickly, reduce costs or ask for more capital.

Anyone who knows PEB will see 1H is always 'harder' than 2H but the answer to that is quite obvious...Sell more quickly... which is being shown by outflows barely increasing (last few months may have started decreasing), and losses at NZ and US laboratories decreasing (even with these numbers, which is still very low compared to the potential... imagine when they begin to pick up ;))

[Schrodinger]

Anyone who knows PEB will see 1H is always 'harder' than 2H but the answer to that is quite obvious...Sell more quickly... which is being shown by outflows barely increasing (last few months may have started decreasing), and losses at NZ and US laboratories decreasing (even with these numbers, which is still very low compared to the potential... imagine when they begin to pick up ;))

That will hinge on the next 6 months. They will get a clear indication a few months in if thats thecase (rising sales) and hence the need for a raise. I expect outflows to hover in between $13M-$18M FY but they will have to be frugal with the R&D spend.....hence the next 2 months are crucial.

[OldGuy]

TJ: I still can't figure out whether you just don't understand financial statements at all, or are a very elaborate Troll....

[bottomfeeder]

is 72% more of a little ,equal to alot?

My thoughts exactly.

The company should be looking for profitability to justify the market cap. Instead we all seem to be looking forward to the day that they may break even. Thank god I am not gambling on this share anymore. This is not an investment it is a gamble.

[Schrodinger]

If I was a holder I would be asking for monthly lab throughput figures. NZX publishes monthly share metrics I would suggest PEB should do the same. It would be most useful...

[Schrodinger]

Big boys selling down now?

[trader_jackson]

Big boys selling down now?

No, they'll be waiting till after the 11am conference call, those selling down now are the small boys who like to think they are big ;)

[When the bass drops]

TJ: I still can't figure out whether you just don't understand financial statements at all, or are a very elaborate Troll....

No OldGuy, its a simple case of not everyone being on your side of the ledger with PEB, having gone through your experiences etc.

[OldGuy]

No OldGuy, its a simple case of not everyone being on your side of the ledger with PEB, having gone through your experiences etc.

umm, I was referring to the way that TJ consistently misinterprets some of the most basic financial info. His posts on the Arvida thread are legendary.

But anyway, what's your take on today's results??

[iluab]

A picture paints a thousand words folks, looking a little more like a Wynyard scenario now, low and attenuating revenues, ballooning cash burn.

Good luck holders, I get the cleaver tech behind the product, but they have to be able to sell it to remain solvent. Just $14.6m cash on hand.

8481

[OldGuy]

wow, cool graph iluab! Did you make that yourself?

Says it all. Look forward to responses from the believers.

[silu]

I see no joy in seeing the share price tank. I really wanted this company to succeed but it has been stinking for months with enough opportunities for holders to exit. The biggest mistake I have made as a young 'un was to hold on to companies like PEB telling myself that my view is longterm anyway. Swimming against market sentiment is a dangerous and costly game.

[When the bass drops]

umm, I was referring to the way that TJ consistently misinterprets some of the most basic financial info. His posts on the Arvida thread are legendary.

But anyway, what's your take on today's results??

Okay, I'll have a look at some point.

Not too much has been revealed in these HY results, but I would suggest they haven't gone backwards either. Their big 'transformational' customers are a work in progress, and I expect cut-through at some point (though I cannot put my finger on when the likes of Kaiser, Tricare, and urologists in the VA space will give the all-clear for mass-use).

I am pleased they have published HYearly lab numbers, though I would like it better if they were expressed monthly. The trend is in the right direction though.

I still hold to the view another capital raise is likely, particularly if there are more delays. What occurs by end of January 2017 would be crucial in my mind.

I do believe they are more likely to succeed, than becoming insolvent, from a long term perspective. Hence I will still hold, as my timeframe was always long-term.

[RupertBear]

A picture paints a thousand words folks, looking a little more like a Wynyard scenario now, low and attenuating revenues, ballooning cash burn.

Good luck holders, I get the cleaver tech behind the product, but they have to be able to sell it to remain solvent. Just $14.6m cash on hand.

8481

Yes I agree, have sold out this morning at a small loss but happy to escape another Wynyard experience. ;)

[iluab]

wow, cool graph iluab! Did you make that yourself?

Says it all. Look forward to responses from the believers.

Ta, just for general interest for all, here's the Wynyard graph that ultimately led to their demise.

8482

[whatsup]

A picture paints a thousand words folks, looking a little more like a Wynyard scenario now, low and attenuating revenues, ballooning cash burn.

Good luck holders, I get the cleaver tech behind the product, but they have to be able to sell it to remain solvent. Just $14.6m cash on hand.


Ilua, agree cool graph, could you forward this onto PEB so they can use it at their AGM and next presentation.
8481

iluab, agree very cool, could you forward it onto PEB so they can use it in their AGN and their next presentation ?

[Ninefingers]

Just takes the old mates at Kaiser to say sweet as bro to 106,000 tests and things are looking good.

A lot of the evidence would suggest they're going to, their own analysis report on the User Programme will be very interesting. Let's just hope this happens in the next 6 months.

Disc: Sold half my holding at a loss last week...house reno. Holding the other half between clenched buttcheeks.

[trader_jackson]

Ta, just for general interest for all, here's the Wynyard graph that ultimately led to their demise.

8482

Thank you for posting, really does show the huge difference between PEB and WYN, as I have previously noted a few pages back... WYN did not increase their revenue for 2 years, the signs momentum had stopped were extremly clear 'way back' with hopes poised on big one off secret contracts (but as per usual with anything positive on this thread, was either ignored or barely discussed... always more exciting to scare with the "when's the next cap raising")

[Leftfield]

Meanwhile over on the BLT thread, GR8DAY makes this observation


..............and further to LEFTFIELDS comments JONU. HOW'S THIS FOR A MARKET VALUATION COMPARISON THEN:
Pacific Edge just announced their 6monthly (Blis did the same last week) One could argue both companies working in a similar sector (BioTECH?).........BOTH hail from Dunedin University NZ.........BOTH reported revenue of $3.8m..........BOTH MADE REVENUE GAINS OF 41/42%.........PEB reports yet another loss of $11.3m.........BLIS reports a growing PROFIT of $428k with a forecast full year of $700k (im picking conservative)

YET..........(drum roll please) PACIFIC EDGE (the company) currently has a Market Cap almost 4 times that of BLIS!!

........which naturally begs the question......is PEB way over-valued OR is BLIS way under-valued. Well given the fact that once-upon-a-time PEB was valued by the market at around a whopping $600m I think we can pretty much take it that BLIS is WAY-UNDERVALUED by comparison. In fact I would add, I personally believe that 2c you came up with JONU needs a zero behind it..........if not now maybe in a year or two. Look for the trend Mr Market, it's right their in front of you..........wakey wakey!! (DYOR)

[OldGuy]

oh my god TJ. You really are a troll. How could you possibly look at that chart and conclude anything other than that things are very bad for PEB??

[iluab]

Thank you for posting, really does show the huge difference between PEB and WYN, as I have previously noted a few pages back... WYN did not increase their revenue for 2 years, the signs momentum had stopped were extremly clear 'way back' with hopes poised on big one off secret contracts (but as per usual with anything positive on this thread, was either ignored or barely discussed... always more exciting to scare with the "when's the next cap raising")

Well, I'm not convinced an annualized tick up from 7 to 8m in revenues is exactly steaming along, but you have a fair point that at least they are advancing even if its a dribble, the question is though trader jackson, is that very humble advance going to keep them in business. My feel from today's report in isolation is probably not given the cash burn trend. They could still pull out a stunner FY17 result somehow, though as all investors know hope is not an investment strategy.

Personally, I would like to see the company prosper, and shareholders also, I held for three years before all the missed target just got too much for me to tolerate, they just need to execute on the commercials as well as they do in the lab.

[kiwidollabill]

Big day, everyone got their game face on

My prediction is.... 20-50% increase in rev, similar increase in net loss, another cap raising required in 2017 but lots of optimism. sp will be muted, will progressively decline over 6 mnths, next cap raise @20c.

Disc, no way a holder

So I was kinda close, still betting on cap raise on those terms though.

The segment info in the statements should be frightening. Although they may be growing tests in the US, they are generating next to no additional profit for this. Compared the 2H results for 15/16

Strip everything out, the Commercial US lab is $14,000 better off than the same time last year, NZ is doing better by $114,000





2016


2015



NZ Lab
US Lab

NZ Lab
US Lab


Sales
193
2806

30
1766


Other Inc
103
46

145
75


Total Op Inc
296
2852

175
1841










Total Op Ex
602
6248

595
5251










Loss
-306
-3396

-420
-3410

[bottomfeeder]

While I am not a fan of PEB, if you have got the shares they would have to be a HOLD. Definitely not a BUY or ACCUMULATE. Probably a better product than Wynyard, harder to duplicate than Wynyards product. But they have to stop their R and D, until they have a profit to R and D with. Too much patting themselves on their respective backs as well. Needs someone to get back to commercial reality and get things moving. If they did go bust, their product would be worth something. After their next capital raising, look for the downtrend on the share price, at which time the shares will probably be an accumulate.

[pierre]

The results today are not great - but you'd have to say they haven't reported a disaster either.

The USA opportunities are all heading in the right direction and only one "transformational" customer needs to come on board for the picture to improve significantly. PEB is probably keeping quiet about future capital needs at this time in the expectation the transformation will occur sooner than later - like other holders I certainly hope that's the case.

Patience and confidence still required as we move onwards and upwards to 2H17.

Good things are definitely taking time to materialize - much longer than anyone would have hoped. Bit cheesy I know, but maybe that's a mark of a "Mainland" company.

(A sense of humour is definitely required to cope both with the vagaries of being a PEB holder and the negativity on ST, even though the main protagonist is yet to appear.)

[Defater]

Apples with Apples guys. You can't compare Usain Bolt with Far Lap or Wynyard Group (A market leader in serious crime fighting software) with Pacific Edge (Cancer diagnostics company). Pacific Edges product range is the best in class and once the paper work, the user programs , publications in medical journals, acceptance by national procurement services.... the list goes on and on have been completed...they will do very well in my opinion, they may even steam along and may not need to raise any more capital. Who knows?.

[winner69]

Note 5 in the accounts re incentive scheme is interesting reading

Nearly $3m of shares isued to wind it up

5. PACIFIC EDGE INCENTIVE PLAN
In March 2011 the Company developed an “Incentive Plan” as a means of providing Key Persons with the opportunity to participate in the potential increasing profitability of the Group. The Plan was an Equity Equivalent (EE) Scheme that provides EE Units on the following terms:
•
• •
• •
EE Units are vested to the Participant over a period of 4 years but cannot be redeemed during the first two years from the date of their issue.
Each EE Unit has the equivalent value of an ordinary share in the Company.
Redemption is in cash for the difference between the value of the EE Units at the time of allocation and their value at the time of redemption.
The Company must be trading in a cash flow positive condition and the Company’s share price on the NZX must have reached $1.00 per share.
A maximum of 25% of a Participant’s vested EE Units can be redeemed in any one year.
On 30 June 2016 the Board of Directors voted in favour of winding up this scheme. 6,253,000 EE units had been issued at this date of which 5,720,500 had vested. After obtaining an independent valuation and receiving approval from the EE unit holders to cancel the scheme, the scheme was cancelled and 5,194,583 shares were issued to employees as consideration at $0.563 per share. This has been treated as a modification from a cash settled to equity settled share scheme. The shares were issued with no vesting conditions attached and as no liability had been recognised for these EE units in previous years, this has resulted in a non-cash share based payment expense for the period of $2,924,550

[winner69]

Anything interesting come out of the conference call?

[Snow Leopard]

Note 5 in the accounts re incentive scheme is interesting reading

Nearly $3m of shares isued to wind it up...

That happened back on 30-June see announcements on 1-July.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

OUTLOOK

Achievement of our financial goals is dependent on acceptance and uptake by the large USA healthcare organisations we have identified as transformational customers. Their decision to accept and adopt a new product for clinical use can be a lengthy process and outside of our direct control.

However, we are well advanced in our commercial progress with these organisations, having signed the Federal Supply Schedule agreement and entered into contract with the VA, entered into contract with TRICARE and successfully completed the Kaiser Permanente User Programme. While this has taken longer than we originally anticipated, each one of these could result in a quantum leap in sales revenue as we bring them on board as commercial customers.


As the baseball bat of reality hits the over-ripe tomato of aspiration.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

Makes some feel that their losses do something for a higher purpose than pay for goodies for the directors and management?

Meanwhile, much anticipated half year results tomorrow:

1. Will PEB finally release actual numbers of tests sold - 3 years after promising 'tens of thousands of tests'.

2. Will receivables actually convert into cash rather than keep piling up waiting to be confirmed and paid,

3. How much cash is left and what is the current level of cash burn,

4. When will be the next capital raise, 3 years after stating that the capital issue then would take the company through to profitability,

5. Will directors and management actually buy some shares on market to show their utmost confidence in the company's future?

Summary :

1. Number of tests disclosed at last but alas, confirms the worse suspicion that PEB was and is not within a mouse squeak of the 'tens of thousands of tests' articulated by the then Chairman Swann in Dec 2013. Remember his numbers were for 2014. Here we are in 2016, and still not even the first ten thousand tests.

2. Receivables continue to build up and now represents 2.14 times sales in the last 6 months - very unique working capital management indeed!

3. $14.9m cash left as at 30 September 2016 and cash burn was $17.9m in the last 12 months. Cash burn has been running at $1.5m a month so as of now (Nov 2016), cash will be down to around $11.9m.

4. $11.9m means PEB has less than 8 months of cash left. The most reckless of company will still want to have cash to cover not less than 1 year of cash burn.

5. Not only have directors and management not bought shares on market, PEB shifted the goal post so management obtained shares irrespective of performance criteria!

[pierre]

As the baseball bat of reality hits the over-ripe tomato of aspiration.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I imagine your comment would have had a much harsher tone had they said ".....will result in a quantum leap in sales revenue as we bring them on board as commercial customers."

While there are grounds for cautious optimism, I'm sure we would all now prefer more caution from the company rather than over-excitement.

However, it looks like PEB's report has met the market's current expectation. A 1 cent drop in the SP and 1m shares traded today hardly indicates a stampede for the hills.

[Balance]

I imagine your comment would have had a much harsher tone had they said ".....will result in a quantum leap in sales revenue as we bring them on board as commercial customers."

While there are grounds for cautious optimism, I'm sure we would all now prefer more caution from the company rather than over-excitement.

However, it looks like PEB's report has met the market's current expectation. A 1 cent drop in the SP and 1m shares traded today hardly indicates a stampede for the hills.

The underwriters shareholders (donkey deep and nowhere to run, let along to the hills) will be supporting the sp for the capital raising to come - refer post 15212, subsection 4.

And for those concerned PEB may be like Wynyard, there is a big difference - ie. no ANZ or bank debt.

[trader_jackson]

Ah yes, back to the old underwriters supporting the share price (for a year and a half now is it?)

Good to see they are beginning to receive some serious receipts from customers, shows how scalable 'the model' really is... you can draw your own conclusions, but I will be expecting a minimum of $5-6m revenue in the 2nd half should be 'the minimum' although I would like to see closer $9 to $10m, which given the recent announcements should be easily achievable
8483

[Balance]

Ah yes, back to the old underwriters supporting the share price (for a year and a half now is it?)



Yup - do yourself a favor and :

1. Look back over SSH over the last 1.5 years and you will see who has been buying.

2. Get a list of top 50 shareholders from your friendly fee-hungry but advice-poor broker :D and see the change in shareholdings over the last year.

BTW - note that receipts increased by $1,906,000 in Sep 16 but payments increased by $2,320,000 - negative $414,000. Still costing PEB more to generate increased sales - sure recipe for feeling the (cash) burn.

%tage gains are commonly used by so-called 'growth' companies to gild the lily but actual numbers matter more.

[trader_jackson]

Yup - do yourself a favor and :

1. Look back over SSH over the last 1.5 years and you will see who has been buying.

2. Get a list of top 50 shareholders from your friendly fee-hungry but advice-poor broker :D and see the change in shareholdings over the last year.

But are they 'supporting' it or are they, potentially, taking advantage of small retail short sightedness? (I could give a few examples of users on here ;))
(who, for example today, on low volume, sold at a 10% discount to what they could have got if they had waited just a couple of hours?)

[Balance]

But are they 'supporting' it or are they, potentially, taking advantage of small retail short sightedness? (I could give a few examples of users on here ;))
(who, for example today, on low volume, sold at a 10% discount to what they could have got if they had waited just a couple of hours?)

Well, the underwriters are nursing huge losses so I know which side I prefer to be on.


Remember Harbour was expecting over $70m of sales this year when they bought in and kept buying.

[skid]

As the baseball bat of reality hits the over-ripe tomato of aspiration.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Sticking with the baseball analogy--The way I see it,all these numbers we are checking out are being bandied around in the pre school little league field---for this thing to work we need to bundle all this up and pack it in the bus and transport it over to the city to the super big league-Professional stadium..but its a long road to get there.

If I were those who bought at the bottom,Id be banking that short term gain,before the drift starts. DYOR--I can, however see how some could view it as a fun long shot ,on the side.Especially those new comers.

[winner69]

Noticed the financials are in $'000 this time around. Graduated from having everything in $'s

Good sign - obviously thinking about the future big numbers.

[skid]

Noticed the financials are in $'000 this time around. Graduated from having everything in $'s

Good sign - obviously thinking about the future big numbers.

Your starting to get that ''just bought some shares-split personality'' there winner:)

[Snow Leopard]

I imagine your comment would have had a much harsher tone had they said ".....will result in a quantum leap in sales revenue as we bring them on board as commercial customers."

While there are grounds for cautious optimism, I'm sure we would all now prefer more caution from the company rather than over-excitement.

However, it looks like PEB's report has met the market's current expectation. A 1 cent drop in the SP and 1m shares traded today hardly indicates a stampede for the hills.

I would have upgraded it to:

As the stale baguette of reality hits the rather runny camembert of aspiration

So ~11,000 tests in the last year of which 2,000 for KP.
Linear (give or take currency fluctuations) revenue growth.

Here's Charles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXQh9jTwwoA

Bon chance, mon ami
Paper Tiger

[Balance]

House broker getting nervous, very very nervous - none of the exuberance whatsoever in their commentaries compared to their comments of previous results.

Now hoping for miracles!

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-posts-113m-year-loss

""There’s a likelihood they’ll have to go back to shareholders for more capital, unless something miraculous happens."

"She noted there was no mention in the report of the longstanding $100million revenue target, no insights into cash burn nor any cost expectations for the remainder of the year."

Cash burn of between $1m to $1.3m according to analysts?

Try $1.5m and 8 months left on the clock.

[winner69]

House broker getting nervous, very very nervous - none of the exuberance whatsoever in their commentaries compared to their comments of previous results.

Now hoping for miracles!

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-posts-113m-year-loss

""There’s a likelihood they’ll have to go back to shareholders for more capital, unless something miraculous happens."

"She noted there was no mention in the report of the longstanding $100million revenue target, no insights into cash burn nor any cost expectations for the remainder of the year."

Cash burn of between $1m to $1.3m according to analysts?

Try $1.5m and 8 months left on the clock.

That Lyn from Forbar a smart cookie recognising cash levels are a KEY metric - "However, cash levels will be a key metric to watch, with Pacific Edge holding about 12 months of cash on hand, at current burn rates."

But no worries really - exciting transformational things happening leading to quantum changes

[blackcap]

Cash burn of between $1m to $1.3m according to analysts?

Try $1.5m and 8 months left on the clock.

Which means unless they want to do a "Wynyard" they will have to raise cash within the next 3 months.

[Schrodinger]

Which means unless they want to do a "Wynyard" they will have to raise cash within the next 3 months.

I would expect a down round less than the 61c last time. It would be in the brokers interests to prop this baby up as offering a steep discount closer to actual valuation will not be accepted by the market. Be very wary of this one. It should be 20-30c at maximum but who will take a punt....before putting a cent down I would ask for the last two months lab numbers.

Also note that they continue to hold out for the holy grail large programme. While this is good it has shades of Wynyard and they have over spent as a result.

PEB have backed themselves into a corner.

[trader_jackson]

Which means unless they want to do a "Wynyard" they will have to raise cash within the next 3 months.

I mean it is better than what some were saying would be a capital raising 'now' (comments made on sharetrader before half year results), but 3 months, really?
Even balance (now) says 8 months... and Forsyth has mentioned 11 months, which I believe is more realistic (having estimated a year)

There really can be a quantum leap in sales, you only have to look at what was achieved shortly after the half year ended to see how this is easily possible, but next 6 months will be crucial... already a 230+% increase in operating cash flows which is a very promising start.

[blackcap]

I mean it is better than what some were saying would be a capital raising 'now' (comments made on sharetrader before half year results), but 3 months, really?
Even balance (now) says 8 months... and Forsyth has mentioned 11 months, which I believe is more realistic (having estimated a year)

There really can be a quantum leap in sales, you only have to look at what was achieved shortly after the half year ended to see how this is easily possible, but next 6 months will be crucial... already a 230+% increase in operating cash flows which is a very promising start.

You cannot have 11 months cash and do a cap raise at the 11 month mark... (otherwise you do a Wynyard)

[trader_jackson]

You cannot have 11 months cash and do a cap raise at the 11 month mark... (otherwise you do a Wynyard)

Ok, fair, so maybe back to Balance's 8 months, last time PEB did a capital raising I think it was about 3 months before they would have run out of cash... they also don't have any debt and a decent chunk in accounts receivable, which is a key difference between PEB and WYN

[bottomfeeder]

I can see it now, new shares to be issued at 25cents, large shareholders who give a committement will get them at a ten percent discount, small shareholders just have to suck it in. All shares will then take up a market value of 25cents. But a slight difference I dont think that they will drop to 10 cents but maintain the 25 cents. I think that they should raise the capital now. The cash they have on hand now increases the NTA backing, if they wait till the cash is burnt, the NTA backing will be lower. Finances always look better with a higher NTA backing and solid working capital.

[skid]

I mean it is better than what some were saying would be a capital raising 'now' (comments made on sharetrader before half year results), but 3 months, really?
Even balance (now) says 8 months... and Forsyth has mentioned 11 months, which I believe is more realistic (having estimated a year)

There really can be a quantum leap in sales, you only have to look at what was achieved shortly after the half year ended to see how this is easily possible, but next 6 months will be crucial... already a 230+% increase in operating cash flows which is a very promising start.

% numbers mean nothing.They have to get a big contract. And if that ends up taking a while(while this whole healthcare thing gets worked out with Trump)then they will need more money.Now its just a matter of arguing about when.
This is the danger when you take the long term-''time will make everything right''scenario. time=money to operate.
thats a pretty frank article--much different than the rosy predictions from investment firms awhile back.(I remember the indignant responses when I had questions about the young woman and /or her predictions)
So with alot more consensus on the situation I cant help but wonder whats holding the SP up. Bioteks have not been doing so well of late in the USA.The only things left are a good product(we are getting an education on whether thats enough) and the ''something just around the corner'' hopes.
They always talk about the ''potential'' but having said that ,they are not actually a very diversified company and they may be up against some who are.--I think Trump is a great example of how some dont necessarily play by the rules.(with foreign entities lining up for political favors)

but..the sp is holding

[winner69]

I mean it is better than what some were saying would be a capital raising 'now' (comments made on sharetrader before half year results), but 3 months, really?
Even balance (now) says 8 months... and Forsyth has mentioned 11 months, which I believe is more realistic (having estimated a year)

There really can be a quantum leap in sales, you only have to look at what was achieved shortly after the half year ended to see how this is easily possible, but next 6 months will be crucial... already a 230+% increase in operating cash flows which is a very promising start.

But increased revenues just seem to go to Receivables - not always cash in the near term.

[Balance]

Ok, fair, so maybe back to Balance's 8 months, last time PEB did a capital raising I think it was about 3 months before they would have run out of cash... they also don't have any debt and a decent chunk in accounts receivable, which is a key difference between PEB and WYN

Repeat - cash burn of $1.5m a month so PEB is down to $11.9m as of now. Means they run out of cash (and out of business) in 8 months time - July 2017.

Like in 2015, it makes sense for them to announce a rights issue in May 2017 when they release the Mar 2017 accounts. PEB will be hoping for the 'miracle' so they have a great set of accounts to show the market when raising the new capital.

Huge problem this time round is that the last one saw the underwriters sucking on 40% of stock so if there is no great set of accounts to show, PEB will not be able to get underwriting. No underwriting means sayonara PEB or a very heavily discounted rights issue - 2 for 1 at 10c for eg to get it away.

[whatsup]

Repeat - cash burn of $1.5m a month so PEB is down to $11.9m as of now. Means they run out of cash (and out of business) in 8 months time - July 2017.

Like in 2015, it makes sense for them to announce a rights issue in May 2017 when they release the Mar 2017 accounts. PEB will be hoping for the 'miracle' so they have a great set of accounts to show the market when raising the new capital.

Huge problem this time round is that the last one saw the underwriters sucking on 40% of stock so if there is no great set of accounts to show, PEB will not be able to get underwriting. No underwriting means sayonara PEB or a very heavily discounted rights issue - 2 for 1 at 10c for eg to get it away.


It would be great if former angle investors fronted up if that a cap raising happens instead of flying the ship !

[skid]

The whole concept of medicare is being negotiated atm

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/us/politics/donald-trump-medicare-republicans.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=nytpolitics&smtyp=cur

whether anything gets changed ,or how long it takes is anyones guess

[Balance]

It would be great if former angle investors fronted up if that a cap raising happens instead of flying the ship !

Masfens sold very very well, locking in tens of millions of dollars of gains so could be one angel sitting in the wings ready to come in - at say 10c per share?

BTW - hats off to them. The market and NZ need more angel investors like them.

[Balance]

% numbers mean nothing.They have to get a big contract.

Latest NBR headline on PEB has the company hoping to avoid another capital raising (note the key word 'hope').

And I think we have heard all of this before : "Sales from any one of four key potential US customers could result in a quantum leap in revenue."

Hope is of course one of the emotions Warren Buffett warns against when investing.

[winner69]

No worries after listening to analyst conference call.
http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/investor-files/FY17-Half-Year/PEL-HALF-YEAR-FY17-AUDIO-CALL-COMMENTARY.mp3


Cash burn reduced by $0.3m last few months
If you count Receivables $18m/$19m cash as at September
Will last a while (loved the way Finance lady interrupted and said thats before any new customers come on board ...honky dory)



David just can't resist that irritating habit of answering most questions 'good question Chelsea (or whoever)' but when the sound bites are limited to 'exciting times' / 'transformational customers' / 'quantum changes' we will forgive him eh

[skid]

No worries after listening to analyst conference call.
http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/investor-files/FY17-Half-Year/PEL-HALF-YEAR-FY17-AUDIO-CALL-COMMENTARY.mp3


Cash burn reduced by $0.3m last few months
If you count Receivables $18m/$19m cash as at September
Will last a while (loved the way Finance lady interrupted and said thats before any new customers come on board ...honky dory)



David just can't resist that irritating habit of answering most questions 'good question Chelsea (or whoever)' but when the sound bites are limited to 'exciting times' / 'transformational customers' / 'quantum changes' we will forgive him eh

I think that guy is in a permanent state of excitement:)---so its looking like the main theme of the PEB thread is going to be ''when exactly will the next cap raising take place''..(as we wait for them to decide what the heck they are doing over there in USA) Maybe we should think of some way PEB can get in line for a political favor from Trump(a free white house user program?)no wait-that would have to include Trump Tower as he wants to spends lots of time there --But even that would take a while as the line is very long.--that flash hotel of his is going to be full for a while.

[Minerbarejet]

Meanwhile back on P11 of the presentation lies a little transformational nugget, unspoken for, unnoticed and ignored.
Please do not become hysterical when you find it and realise what it is.

[davflaws]

Don't be shy -tell us!

[Dentie]

Meanwhile back on P11 of the presentation lies a little transformational nugget, unspoken for, unnoticed and ignored.
Please do not become hysterical when you find it and realise what it is.

That's because it's not a "negative sounding nugget" Miner. If it was, it would have been trumpeted by now don't you worry!

[Snow Leopard]

Transformational my paw !

Relax:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f26J8LuXFrE

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

That's because it's not a "negative sounding nugget" Miner. If it was, it would have been trumpeted by now don't you worry!

Awwww...someones going to have to go round up some hugs for those chaps :eek2:

[cammo]

22/11 CDY AGM - a summary off HC by "leverage" - i havent seen it in last ten or so pages of PEB thread so sorry if dropped already but:

Pacific Edge
Maria is very pleased with the CX Bladder testing and exemplifies the MK Bio-marker. Continued product release and footprint for CX Bladder will only leverage other MK based assays. Not only will Royalties grow but so will the recognition of MK and it's use. Specifically, the release of CX Bladder monitor in NZ which replaces Cytoscopy is very very signficant.

So CDY will know only too well the uphill climb required to shift cytoscopy off the top. They see it as very very significant

[RGR367]

After OHE, it looks like I'm on my speculation buying zone today as I bought in at 50 cents. As a new holder, gut feel says this one jives better than OHE though there is really no comparison between them. Three years is the most I could allot my time to this if and when it flourishes of course.

[RupertBear]

After OHE, it looks like I'm on my speculation buying zone today as I bought in at 50 cents. As a new holder, gut feel says this one jives better than OHE though there is really no comparison between them. Three years is the most I could allot my time to this if and when it flourishes of course.

You might need to add a few Trilogy to your speculative list! :D

[RGR367]

You might need to add a few Trilogy to your speculative list! :D

Thanks but no thanks mate. Gut feel says that could light up the stomach with too much acid :t_down:

[blobbles]

Thanks but no thanks mate. Gut feel says that could light up the stomach with too much acid :t_down:

If you are in fonterra, it might be the milk. Switch to ATM, supposed to help with stomach discomfort. :-p

[RGR367]

If you are in fonterra, it might be the milk. Switch to ATM, supposed to help with stomach discomfort. :-p

Really like that milk blobbles. Got into ATM big time 1st qtr of last year between 51 to 56 cents just by discovering the nuggets on the discussion thread :t_up:

[When the bass drops]

As a keen follower of PEB, a lot of the delay and uncertainty I feel has been down to negotiation skills. This is something the likes of Balance, skid, Winner69, oldguy etc. have probably touched on in the past. I know a lot of the delays they point out are down to simple negotiation skill.

In basic terms, if you get a medical organisation to trial something on the basis that if the product works and exceeds expectations, they would promise to order 'x' amount of the product, then you're front-footing the commercial arrangement. I feel that, and I don't know the full picture, the issue has been with PEB that they are granting the use of their products in a clinical trial setting, and then upon a positive outcome they are at that point asking if the medical group is willing to contractually sign up to buying the tests. The medical group, which suffers from a terminal bout of inertia as it is, may in all likelihood say "We like the product, and we feel it would provide value to us in our clinical setting, but at this point we will persist with our traditional methods, and we are willing to wait another 12 months to start a conversation again about buying the tests."

I feel there is a bit of this going on. Negotiation is key. This is why I won't be surprised if a capital raise is on the cards (the final one) within 6 months of the 24 Nov announcement.

From all accounts, good negotiation (and front-footing) has been instrumental in the recent rises in WDT (Wellington Drive).

This is not to say that PEB will fail as a company because of sub-par negotiation with prospective large clients. I just think they are going to take longer to meet their objectives.

[Balance]

This is why I won't be surprised if a capital raise is on the cards (the final one) within 6 months of the 24 Nov announcement.



Either way, will be definitely the last CR for PEB.

Underwriters will be as scarce as snapper in the Waikato river near Huntly if PEB does not get real traction by March 2017.

The underwriters to the last issue are still sucking on the 40% shortfall at 61 cents they had to take up - plus their own entitlements.

[skid]

As a keen follower of PEB, a lot of the delay and uncertainty I feel has been down to negotiation skills. This is something the likes of Balance, skid, Winner69, oldguy etc. have probably touched on in the past. I know a lot of the delays they point out are down to simple negotiation skill.

In basic terms, if you get a medical organisation to trial something on the basis that if the product works and exceeds expectations, they would promise to order 'x' amount of the product, then you're front-footing the commercial arrangement. I feel that, and I don't know the full picture, the issue has been with PEB that they are granting the use of their products in a clinical trial setting, and then upon a positive outcome they are at that point asking if the medical group is willing to contractually sign up to buying the tests. The medical group, which suffers from a terminal bout of inertia as it is, may in all likelihood say "We like the product, and we feel it would provide value to us in our clinical setting, but at this point we will persist with our traditional methods, and we are willing to wait another 12 months to start a conversation again about buying the tests."

I feel there is a bit of this going on. Negotiation is key. This is why I won't be surprised if a capital raise is on the cards (the final one) within 6 months of the 24 Nov announcement.

From all accounts, good negotiation (and front-footing) has been instrumental in the recent rises in WDT (Wellington Drive).

This is not to say that PEB will fail as a company because of sub-par negotiation with prospective large clients. I just think they are going to take longer to meet their objectives.

Fair assessment--My main concern would be that as there is considerable uncertainty in the medical field in the States(Obamacare-medicare)due to the Trump factor that no one will be making any commitments in the short term until they see just whats going to be the norm---Trump certainly leans toward cost cutting in any social service areas(Hes not big on the concept of looking after ones people)
when ever I see an article on whats in store I try to post---Details are hard to come by at this point--It looks like they are leaning towards individual schemes on a state to state basis.---Its also fair to point out that urologists trained up to do cytology are going to be slow to shift from their specialty.---Guess we will never know how this would have gone if a large well known co had been on board--(unless one buys out PEB)

[bottomfeeder]

I had utopian dreams that doctors care about patients first and money second. Why get less markup on a PEB Test, when they can charge exorbitant amounts all for themselves, and carry out an invasive test. Sometimes a cheaper less invasive test is hard to market, unless the consumer demands it.

[Balance]

I had utopian dreams that doctors care about patients first and money second. Why get less markup on a PEB Test, when they can charge exorbitant amounts all for themselves, and carry out an invasive test. Sometimes a cheaper less invasive test is hard to market, unless the consumer demands it.

Eh - we are talking about the USA, right?

They do not take the Hippocratic oath there - more like the Hypocrite oath where patients come into clinics first but money must come second before admission and then, and only then, care & treatment follows.

[bottomfeeder]

Eh - we are talking about the USA, right?

They do not take the Hippocratic oath there - more like the Hypocrite oath where patients come into clinics first but money must come second before admission and then, and only then, care & treatment follows.

New Zealand not far behind. A few years back I moved cities, and signed up with a local doctor. They said first appointment would be $40 extra, no doubt to cover costs of transfer of files and set up. I didnt go for two years during which time under the current arrangement the Government paid them I would say a few thousand dollars. When I ultimately did go after two years, they still charged me $90. I could go on and on about anecdotal evidence of "money grubbing" by the medical fraternity, as experienced by numerous friends and acquitances. Unfortunately in NZ with house prices increasing so quickly over the last few years, a lot of people feel that they nedd to make more money if they missed out on the housing bubble.

[Minerbarejet]

Fair assessment--My main concern would be that as there is considerable uncertainty in the medical field in the States(Obamacare-medicare)due to the Trump factor that no one will be making any commitments in the short term until they see just whats going to be the norm---Trump certainly leans toward cost cutting in any social service areas(Hes not big on the concept of looking after ones people)
when ever I see an article on whats in store I try to post---Details are hard to come by at this point--It looks like they are leaning towards individual schemes on a state to state basis.---Its also fair to point out that urologists trained up to do cytology are going to be slow to shift from their specialty.---Guess we will never know how this would have gone if a large well known co had been on board--(unless one buys out PEB)
If the President Elect of the Untidied States is interested in cost cutting in the medical services then noting that the VA and DOD have allowed the use of Cxbladder may prompt him to make enquiries as to why a simple urine test with excellent published clinical outcomes at 20% of the price of a cystoscopy is underutilised for low grade monitoring at the very least.
Cytology is a urine test that is done in a lab.
Cxbladder beats cytology hands down which is why Canterbury District Health Board is currently validating Triage for use in their clinical pathway instead. Triage is usually initiated by physicians, not urologists.
Results from the cxbladder test requiring further attention would be then referred to an urologist probably for a much more expensive cystoscopy.

[Grunter]

Although I believe in the product, I have exited my holding as the latest results have increased the company's bankruptcy risk, and I won't be jumping back in until the company starts becoming profitable.

[Balance]

If the President Elect of the Untidied States is interested in cost cutting in the medical services then noting that the VA and DOD have allowed the use of Cxbladder may prompt him to make enquiries as to why a simple urine test with excellent published clinical outcomes at 20% of the price of a cystoscopy is underutilised for low grade monitoring at the very least.
Cytology is a urine test that is done in a lab.
Cxbladder beats cytology hands down which is why Canterbury District Health Board is currently validating Triage for use in their clinical pathway instead. Triage is usually initiated by physicians, not urologists.
Results from the cxbladder test requiring further attention would be then referred to an urologist probably for a much more expensive cystoscopy.

Beta was better than VHS but it did not matter - VHS won the vcr market.

GSM has 75% global market share for mobiles due to its ease of global connectivity but in the States, CDMA rules.

Marketing and distribution matters. Knowing your market matters.

PEB chose a direct sale model rather than via an established distributor. Right decision?

[Lewylewylewy]

Just to clarify, is not better, it has advantages and disadvantages. It's very much better at detecting one type of cancer with a near 100% accuracy, but I'd much less accurate at the other type. Unfortunately the type it's better at detecting only affects patients like 3% of the time.

This is ask from memory having read the scientific study earlier in the year. I'd you can find my pervious post, I shared the details there, otherwise dig out the study for an authoritive answer.

Personally, if I was a patient, I would be keen to take both tests. Because the current test is almost completely useless at picking up the less common type of cancer. I think a 1 in 30 chance is worth paying $400+ markup for, because my life matters enough for me to pay less than a grand to decrease the chance of imminently dying by even that much.

What's irritating that the patients don't even get the choice, or know that there is a choice.

As a patient who has recently had surgery (unrelated to cancer), it is very frustrating to find out that you have to make decisions about your healthcare when you just don't have information to base your decisions on.

[Minerbarejet]

Beta was better than VHS but it did not matter - VHS won the vcr market.

GSM has 75% global market share for mobiles due to its ease of global connectivity but in the States, CDMA rules.

Marketing and distribution matters. Knowing your market matters.

PEB chose a direct sale model rather than via an established distributor. Right decision?
No decision to make, an established distributor wouldnt touch this if it wasnt fully clinically validated.
Further, how do you know the market for something like cxbladder that has to change the way people think about human medical problems on top of gaining validation under intense scrutiny from competitors, peers, lethargic govt departments and healthcare providers. Everyone has to jump through the same hoops so it wouldnt matter who your distributor was until later, if at all.

[Dentie]

Personally, if I was a patient, I would be keen to take both tests. Because the current test is almost completely useless at picking up the less common type of cancer. I think a 1 in 30 chance is worth paying $400+ markup for, because my life matters enough for me to pay less than a grand to decrease the chance of imminently dying by even that much.

What's irritating that the patients don't even get the choice, or know that there is a choice.

As a patient who has recently had surgery (unrelated to cancer), it is very frustrating to find out that you have to make decisions about your healthcare when you just don't have information to base your decisions on.

Thanks for your EXCELLENT & PERTINENT post Lewy ... & I hope your surgery went well for you!.

Given the litigious environment that the (already great...yeah right!) US of A has emboldened itself with, one wonders whether the GP's, Urologists & other related professionals would be as zealous at keeping their patients so uninformed (as they evidently currently are), if they thought those patients would hold them legally accountable for not informing them of the options available - prior to their treatment!

Now if ever there was a marketing pointer for PEB - this is it!! ... hint hint ;)

[Balance]

No decision to make, an established distributor wouldnt touch this if it wasnt fully clinically validated.
Further, how do you know the market for something like cxbladder that has to change the way people think about human medical problems on top of gaining validation under intense scrutiny from competitors, peers, lethargic govt departments and healthcare providers. Everyone has to jump through the same hoops so it wouldnt matter who your distributor was until later, if at all.

Not true.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/melbourne-cancer-biotech-sienna-strikes-first-big-deal-with-us-firm-20150108-12kawp.html

[Minerbarejet]

From your link below

"The big play for Sienna is to create its own tests using the reagent. Ms Hegarty said over the next two months she will decide whether it is best to raise the $10 million from the public or private market. The capital will be used to gain regulatory approvals for the company's own tests."
Says it all really.
Still has to jump through the hoops.
So hows it all going? That all came out about a year ago.

Good luck with the approvals, it takes a while , just ask PEB.
I dont see a distributor in all that either. I see Borthwick Labs utilising a test from an unlisted biotech.

QUOTE=Balance;646985]Not true.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/melbourne-cancer-biotech-sienna-strikes-first-big-deal-with-us-firm-20150108-12kawp.html[/QUOTE]

[skid]

If the President Elect of the Untidied States is interested in cost cutting in the medical services then noting that the VA and DOD have allowed the use of Cxbladder may prompt him to make enquiries as to why a simple urine test with excellent published clinical outcomes at 20% of the price of a cystoscopy is underutilised for low grade monitoring at the very least.
Cytology is a urine test that is done in a lab.
Cxbladder beats cytology hands down which is why Canterbury District Health Board is currently validating Triage for use in their clinical pathway instead. Triage is usually initiated by physicians, not urologists.
Results from the cxbladder test requiring further attention would be then referred to an urologist probably for a much more expensive cystoscopy.

All of us can look at CX and think of all the advantages-but unfortunately that just doesnt cut the mustard--Trump is not going to think about a micro little bladder cancer test--He is going to go for some big mega change that fits in with his somewhat chaotic master plan.All we can do is try to keep up with what he has in mind(which is not easy for reason already stated)--We do know he wants to dismantle lots of what is in place.There is talk of not only trashing Obamacare (how much? all of it?) but also doing the same with Medicare---time will tell ,but thats the talk---We can only wait,and in the mean time look at the direction it appears to be moving.---Atm he does not appear to be a friend to the health sector,unless perhaps you are a mega pharmaceutical co.
This is a time when,I think ,we have no choice but to think Macro

[skid]

No decision to make, an established distributor wouldnt touch this if it wasnt fully clinically validated.
Further, how do you know the market for something like cxbladder that has to change the way people think about human medical problems on top of gaining validation under intense scrutiny from competitors, peers, lethargic govt departments and healthcare providers. Everyone has to jump through the same hoops so it wouldnt matter who your distributor was until later, if at all.

As depressing as it sounds ,I would venture the opinion that everyone does not indeed have to jump through the same hoops.Large established companies have an advantage--they have lots of influence in the form of lobbyists and just plain clout--thats just how it works in the States (why do you think some oil company man is minister of the environment) sad but true---it is not the level playing field one would hope.

[Ggcc]

Strong buying from institutional investors..... Just saying it before balance does hehe. Mind you he may still be correct with his analogy about this company only time will tell

[Balance]

Strong buying from institutional investors..... Just saying it before balance does hehe. Mind you he may still be correct with his analogy about this company only time will tell

Good on you.

:D

[skid]

Paul Ryan -GOP speaker-says first thing they'll do is scrap Obama care-(to take affect in 3 years as they figure out something better)---and change Medicare as it is ''burning a hole in the budget''

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/speaker-paul-ryan-tells-60-minutes-that-affordable-care-act-repeal-will-come-first-2016-12-05?mod=MW_story_top_stories

DYOR

[Defater]

Well why not go for an alternative test that is far less intrusive, far more accurate and costs a third of the current option.....a warmer more soothing hole in the snow/budget.

[skid]

Well why not go for an alternative test that is far less intrusive, far more accurate and costs a third of the current option.....a warmer more soothing hole in the snow/budget.

That would be great if you were the one making the decisions--What comes first is the grand plan--(as it looks now ,its cuts) then ,later down the line someone makes those small decisions on micro companies and their test--(PEB is but a flea on the back of a knat on a big ole dog---It can be the greatest test in the world and still fall through the bureaucratic cracks while everyone is trying to make up their minds on what to do---Dont forget the specialists have reason to protect cytology----New innovations do not always do well in an environment of cut backs...Its looking like Medicare has far more important things to think about ATM.

Better than not that PEB has a good product that can potentially save money(most however would still do cytology)--but that alone does not open doors---It just gives you a chance to open doors---that chance is going to be harder Imo---(now if they made some spiffy new military gadget--(thats where the dosh is going)

Read my lips--Trump does not care about things that are for looking after the people,or the planet.

[When the bass drops]

I wonder when the next Edison is due to come out. I know some of you might accuse Edison and Forsyth Barr Research of being the mouth piece of the company (or cheerleaders) but I'm interested to see how much their $1.19 price has moved.