PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[robbo24]

PEB is in a linear regression channel

[biker]

PEB is in a linear regression channel

Care to expand.on that? I hope it's not uncomfortable in there.

[AndyLP]

http://www.computerworld.co.nz/article/525540/minister_promote_nz_tech_companies_us/

“The trip is about giving New Zealand companies access to key business people in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, and generating business opportunities and potential investment options,” Adams says.

[Minerbarejet]

PEB is in a linear regression channelthink he means a linear depression channel - its down from its previous sighs.:)

[MAC]

PEB is in a linear regression channel

Bizarrely, this is starting to sound a little like the DIL thread.

What I am seeing is a large investor selling with perhaps a minority of nervous nellies along for the ride. The 6% recovery in the last couple of days is suggestive that the seller may be done or is taking a hiatus for now.

IMO the forward growth story for PEB is just way too strong for any transient weakness to take hold. The closer we get to half year reporting the more the market may well anticipate this growth.

[baller18]

but the recovery is on very thin volume mac, such as yesterday, so a large possibility the large seller has not yet finished.
It could well move into a consolidation period at 49-51 cents, depends on out large seller though eh?
Agree with the story.

[lastmoa]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/240937

[AndyLP]

Its a great announcement - would love to know by how much cxBladderDetect outperformed cytology in the study. A wide margin sounds great though.

Also liked: "We look forward to having this product more widely used in New Zealand’s healthcare programmes, thus benefiting DHBs, clinicians and patients alike."

It all adds to the saleability of the product in the US - fantastic.

[robbo24]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/240937

This is the kind of jive PEB needs, great little announcement there. Hold on to your hats?

[MAC]

Its a great announcement - would love to know by how much cxBladderDetect outperformed cytology in the study. A wide margin sounds great though.

Also liked: "We look forward to having this product more widely used in New Zealand’s healthcare programmes, thus benefiting DHBs, clinicians and patients alike."

It all adds to the saleability of the product in the US - fantastic.

I think you are right AndyLP, there may not be any significant new news in this announcement, but the timing of its release and it's focus suggests perhaps that the DHB's may now be at a tipping point of getting their order books out now that surely all those trials have been done and dusted to some level of satisfaction.

[blakecb]

I think it is a good announcement - yes we already know that - but good to hear the User Programmes, linked to DHBs (for credibility) have gone well and that the results will be "published by way of a presentation at the Urological Society of Australia and New Zealand (USANZ) Annual Scientific Meeting in March 2014."

It's all about providing shareholders confidence in the product and I think this helps with that a lot. Perhaps this is what people were wanting out of the AGM and Darling realised that by not releasing the information at that event he injured the share price? Better late than never in providing such assurances. Buy depth is building at 51cps.

[NZSilver]

It all good but what we really need is a Customers/LUGs to sign up in the US before share price really moves. Mr Market is looking for sales to bring in $$$.

[blakecb]

Some big sellers ay....if there weren't this would shoot back up to 60cps in short order I would think. I've been impressed that 50cps has been holding up despite the big seller. I've decided to join the PEB team again.

[Xerof]

I agree, I don't think this news alone will hold the price up for long. The science is strong, so although it is not quite a non event, it is really not stunning news.

concur, more proof of strong product, confirmation that sales traction is yet to materialise.

Am I right in concluding MidC DHB are embarking on yet another freebie trial?

[blobbles]

A non event in my opinion. We already know the science is strong. I think shareholders want to see evidence of meaningful commercial relationships!


Remember how science works - multiple confirmed results are needed for something to be understood as reality and not still theoretical. The more they get behind them, the more likely strong sales will follow.

[biker]

Is the 90% not quite as conclusive as the American study?
Also agree it will take some sales info for the share price to get back to 60c plus.
Still reasonably high risk because of lack of sales but if the info and results presented are correct, it should only be a matter of time. IMO a lovely spot in the risk/reward scenario and I'm still topping up.
There is an institutional seller or sellers in the market at the moment. Any ideas who?
And could that latest announcement be timed to facilitate said institution?
Also don't see it as necessarily a bad thing as instos sell for all sorts of reasons and very often their timing isn't optimal.
If around 50c is good buying, then it does provide a temporary window of oportunity IMO.
Disc. Hold quite a few so I'm biased.

[GRIFFIN]

While that seller keeps loading at 52c should keep the price in check.

[Xerof]

While that seller keeps loading at 52c should keep the price in check.

I'm thinking the 'seller' finished last week with that 1m trade at 49. I think it went to a brokers account, and it is being sold out as we speak. If I am right, then this 52 line contains the last of the overhang. Notice the 53 line was pulled (possibly added to 52?)

I have been known to be wrong :ohmy: .....make your own minds up, as always

[MAC]

Over the last couple of months I’ve read on this thread, more than once actually, that PEB have not yet made significant sales. I’d like to take a post to add, I hope, some clarification;

PEB’s 20 month schedule (image below) was established during their capital raising in 2011, which allowed for the launching of tests within their planned US laboratory in March 2013. We must all be satisfied that PEB achieved CLIA registration and completed the lab on budget and schedule.

First US sales were achieved on 1st July and PEB advised that they have set “an ambitious sales target for its start-up year in 2013 which it expects to meet” (image below).

So at this point in time, less than a couple of months after commencement, we should not expect a huge sales announcement as not even PEB can sell before they actually plan to do so. This will come, if PEB are true to form, when planned.

The recent volatility in SP IMO is due entirely to PEB not announcing the 2013 sales guidance which we know they have set. Some don’t mind volatility as it’s an opportunity to buy at a discount, probably the best buy on the market at present, but I’d rather PEB just provided the guidance.

4806

4807

[MAC]

I’m an investor rather than a trader, so I’m happy to take advice on short term moves in SP from yourself and others. Not that I really mind too much either being in PEB for the five year plan.

What I do see is a significantly undervalued stock, particularly so at present, with enormous potential growth ahead.

First sales results will be available in a little over two months in late November at HY14 reporting.

[biker]

Over the last couple of months I’ve read on this thread, more than once actually, that PEB have not yet made significant sales. I’d like to take a post to add, I hope, some clarification;..........


I'm one of those, today even. The fact remains, no significant sales have been made. Whether they should have been or could have been or are projected to be, is not the point I was making. It's just that as of now, as far as the market knows, they haven't.
My view is that sales momentum may take a while to build, urologists being a conservative bunch, but when underway could build rapidly, hence the present buying opportunity, with some large sellers around and a share price with the lid on it.
Obviously though, still a lot of risk, because for whatever reason, those sales may still not eventuate.
Disc. Hold quite a few, so I'm biased.

[Xerof]

I'm thinking the 'seller' finished last week with that 1m trade at 49. I think it went to a brokers account, and it is being sold out as we speak. If I am right, then this 52 line contains the last of the overhang. Notice the 53 line was pulled (possibly added to 52?)

Well, so far so good, no more was added to the 52 line, and with a little assistance from yours truely, it almost got cleaned out by the close.

see what tomorrow yields.

[AndyLP]

Well, so far so good, no more was added to the 52 line, and with a little assistance from yours truely, it almost got cleaned out by the close.

see what tomorrow yields.

This your little parcel Xerof?


52

114,500

16:30

[Minerbarejet]

Well, so far so good, no more was added to the 52 line, and with a little assistance from yours truely, it almost got cleaned out by the close.

see what tomorrow yields.Keep up the good work:)

[blakecb]

Well, so far so good, no more was added to the 52 line, and with a little assistance from yours truely, it almost got cleaned out by the close.

see what tomorrow yields.

On behalf of all holders, Xerof, I would like to say 'thank you'.

Possibly the big seller(s) is out and thanks to Xerof et al, the overhang is cleared up and we are...as percy would say....'well positioned'.

[benjitara]

"We look forward to having this product more widely used in New Zealand's healthcare programmes, thus benefiting DHBs, clinicians and
patients alike."

I'm another holder who is still sceptical about actual sales at the moment but I did like this comment made by the commercial manager. To me it is a strong indication that user programme clients are strongly expected to take up the test in full. The Canterbury DHB would be a good account to hold having a large population base to work from. I'm like most others though that when initial sales are indicated this thing might go through the roof pretty quick. A bit little Charlie in the chocolate factory breaking the glass ceiling in that wonkamobile.

[blakecb]

IMO the seller is Stephen Tindall and he has more to sell. The sales everyone is hoping for are a long way away. Most posters will not have the patience to continue to hold through the ensuing price weakness. This is going to get bumpy!

What gives you the impression it is Stephen Tindall?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

IMO the seller is Stephen Tindall and he has more to sell. The sales everyone is hoping for are a long way away. Most posters will not have the patience to continue to hold through the ensuing price weakness. This is going to get bumpy!

Very unlikely (but possible). An SSH of 1% movement would have had to been filed by now, indicating it's someone already under the 5% threshold. Sure, it's still possible if there have been a couple of sellers and he hasn't sold 2.8mil yet... I certainly wouldn't speculate that it's him though.

Oh and the sales we are all hoping for will be released later this year (the sales we are expecting would be in line with the forecasted ones...).

[blakecb]

It is not speculation!

As for sales, they haven't provided forecasted sales numbers on an annual basis?

I'm not sure how it is possible you know that unless you are his fund manager or something? I don't imagine that is something he would make known mid sell-off.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

It is not speculation!

As for sales, they haven't provided forecasted sales numbers on an annual basis?

If it's not speculation, what is it then? Do you know for sure that it's him? Projected sales targets have been talked about many times in this thread - it worth a flick through.

[Minerbarejet]

Seriously! If you have IRESS you can see the top shareholders and changes in shareholdings over time. Stephen Tindall has been selling! As for projected sales, the projections are poster-based not Company-based.
So the 100 million by year 5 is poster based then?

[Xerof]

Seriously! If you have IRESS you can see the top shareholders and changes in shareholdings over time. Stephen Tindall has been selling! As for projected sales, the projections are poster-based not Company-based.

Oh, well bad luck me for not having access to non-public registry information.


You are indeed speculating.....speculating that K One W One will continue selling down.


Anybody else whose private dealings you would like to disclose? Thats already Milford and Tindall......


I'd like to speculate...... You are a wet behind the ears trainee broker or fundie with a new toy?

pray do tell us more

[Xerof]

This your little parcel Xerof?


52
114,500
16:30





Andy, I shall leave that for Brighton Early to let you know when it shows up on his IRESS in a few days.

[Minerbarejet]

Why all the concern about who owns what. I have as many of these as I can afford based on my best judgement, which is probably the same for most others. Disclosure rules are there
to alert any other shareholder to any substantial shareholder who may be acquiring a majority. I believe that the spread with PEB is sufficient to keep things on an even keel at the moment, a good time to watch out may be when it takes off and see who is getting amongst it if possible. Dont think picking up your CxBladder kit at the Warehouse will go too well though but you never know.:)

[blakecb]

Private dealings? These are not private! I actually thought posters would find the information of interest?

Yes I find it of interest thanks Brighton. My question was as to how you'd obtained the information and that has been satisfied. Are you holding (sorry if I've missed a disc of yours somewhere)?

Tomorrow will be very interesting indeed.

[Minerbarejet]

No, that is a Company-based net revenue figure. They have not given us projected annual sales as they don't know what the curve will look like. Let me ask you this? Name one other listed company that has a projected 5-year net revenue figure?
I cant. And that tells me that what we are dealing with here is an upfront, close to the chest, true to their word company producing planned on time and on budget milestones, exhibiting great confidence in their products both developed and in the pipeline. As they have done all this and are progressing along is there anything in that that gives you cause to think that there will be a less than satisfactory outcome?
The line is being drawn in the sand on this one (seems to be about 50c)-
Dont muck about
you'll surely miss out.
Nuff said
Miner

[MAC]

No, that is a Company-based net revenue figure. They have not given us projected annual sales as they don't know what the curve will look like. Let me ask you this? Name one other listed company that has a projected 5-year net revenue figure?

ATM, $280M in revenues by 2016, ok only four years

[Minerbarejet]

Well found Hancocks - more grist for the mill so to speak.:)

[Minerbarejet]

Just goes to show, we only know what we think we may know, if they are the same clinical trials! And I wondered what sparked the sudden interest up a cent or two.

Voxy article date / time stamp: Tuesday, 10 September, 2013 - 11:17Maybe it was my mate - he bought a few he said. And to your other comment
" cytology CANNOT achieve to the same degree" Now that is the biggie - surpassing the known benchmark!

[whatsup]

IMO the seller is Stephen Tindall and he has more to sell. The sales everyone is hoping for are a long way away. Most posters will not have the patience to continue to hold through the ensuing price weakness. This is going to get bumpy!

Bright Early, If you know anything about S T and his support for N Z pioneer investor/ angle investors you not say such rubbish as you say. He is an absouloutly N Z supporter.

[Minerbarejet]

ATM, $280M in revenues by 2016, ok only four years Are you still in 2012 Mac? :)

[barney]

As the user programmes with the various health organisations get completed, the evidence that cxbladder is a very accurate test will grow. This will naturally gain more attention from third parties, which has happened already. If per chance, Pacific Edge does not get the sales it expects, it will not be down to the quality of the test. More likely due to a small company not getting market penetration. Personally, I think they will get there.

But if the shareprice remains around the level it is, a bigger fish could come along and offer a takeover price at around a 100% premium, which is high by NZ takeover standards, and snap up cxbladder for $300m or so.

Just a thought.

[Minerbarejet]

As the user programmes with the various health organisations get completed, the evidence that cxbladder is a very accurate test will grow. This will naturally gain more attention from third parties, which has happened already. If per chance, Pacific Edge does not get the sales it expects, it will not be down to the quality of the test. More likely due to a small company not getting market penetration. Personally, I think they will get there.

But if the shareprice remains around the level it is, a bigger fish could come along and offer a takeover price at around a 100% premium, which is high by NZ takeover standards, and snap up cxbladder for $300m or so.

Just a thought.
And who is going to agree to all that, current shareholders? I think not,
our underwear probably remains sacrosanct until about 10.00. If it doesn't, then it should.
This has been discussed at length and it has been established that a takeover bid is not in the best interests of anybody given the potential. Why would they after all this effort and planning sell out to some halfbaked enteprise and watch it all turn to custard. Whats the point?

[MAC]

"We look forward to having this product more widely used in New Zealand's healthcare programmes, thus benefiting DHBs, clinicians and
patients alike."

I'm another holder who is still sceptical about actual sales at the moment but I did like this comment made by the commercial manager. To me it is a strong indication that user programme clients are strongly expected to take up the test in full. The Canterbury DHB would be a good account to hold having a large population base to work from. I'm like most others though that when initial sales are indicated this thing might go through the roof pretty quick. A bit little Charlie in the chocolate factory breaking the glass ceiling in that wonkamobile.

I see each user programme as being more of a marketing tool than as just yet another clinical trial. They are PEB's equivalent of a salesperson jamming their foot in your front door.

The more user programmes in the US, the more convinced, one would hope, that all those LUG account managers will be to sign up contracts. The more user programmes and trials the better, bring em on.

[barney]

Personally I wouldn't be a seller at around one dollar , but I know that fund managers & large shareholders don't tend to have the same attachment to shares that small holders often have. Harbour Asset Management , Superlife, etc will sell if they are sitting on large profits and can achieve a quicker return. Masfen has already taken some profit . I'm not saying it would be good, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened .

[blobbles]

Yes, holding. Think it will be a successful company, but not as successful as many of the posters believe.

What's your thoughts on this Brighton? As far as I can see, CxBladder is the most accurate test on the market and should take over and be more successful (because of its accuracy and ability to grade cancers) than NMP22. The market sizes are quite large, around 2 million potential test per year in the US, possibly 1.5 million in Europe (similar sized, but healthier market, this is an estimate) plus the rest of the world once they get their act together. At $550 a test in the US and possibly a gross profit margin of 50% (which is what Alere, the makers of NMP22 report as obtaining), you are talking about big $$$.

Like others have said, @ 10% of the US market only we are talking about $110 million revenue, $55 million profit, 19c EPS. And if its as good as it appears, we could be looking at 50% market penetration in a few years, requiring of course substantial expansion on PEB's behalf, but translating to $550 million revenue, $225 million profit and 75c EPS.

And that would just be the US figures. Add in Europe and we are talking a third more again (assuming less profit margin) if it grows at the same rate....

I understand it's all potentials until people start buying. That there are politics involved which could get in the way. But competition appears to be years behind and accuracy over current methods is miles ahead. Once patients know that the product exists I am sure they will start demanding it.

[nextbigthing]

What's your thoughts on this Brighton? As far as I can see, CxBladder is the most accurate test on the market and should take over and be more successful (because of its accuracy and ability to grade cancers) than NMP22. The market sizes are quite large, around 2 million potential test per year in the US, possibly 1.5 million in Europe (similar sized, but healthier market, this is an estimate) plus the rest of the world once they get their act together. At $550 a test in the US and possibly a gross profit margin of 50% (which is what Alere, the makers of NMP22 report as obtaining), you are talking about big $$$.

Like others have said, @ 10% of the US market only we are talking about $110 million revenue, $55 million profit, 19c EPS. And if its as good as it appears, we could be looking at 50% market penetration in a few years, requiring of course substantial expansion on PEB's behalf, but translating to $550 million revenue, $225 million profit and 75c EPS.

And that would just be the US figures. Add in Europe and we are talking a third more again (assuming less profit margin) if it grows at the same rate....

I understand it's all potentials until people start buying. That there are politics involved which could get in the way. But competition appears to be years behind and accuracy over current methods is miles ahead. Once patients know that the product exists I am sure they will start demanding it.

Excellent post Bobbles, great to see something backed up by reasoning rather than emotion. Clearly huge potential for this company.

I find your comment about politics getting in the way very interesting. It's no secret businesses will try and protect their income. Could this be a major hurdle for them - more powerful companies spending big dollars to maintain status quo or hold PEB out for their own products?

[winner69]

A novelbladder cancer detection test an entrant in the NZ Innovators Awards .... along with the innovative cardboard pet casket range

http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/09/2013-nz-innovators-awards-finalists-revealed

There is a peoples choice award as well ... you guys better get organised

[winner69]

A novel bladder cancer detection test an entrant in the NZ Innovators Awards .... along with the innovative cardboard pet casket range

http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/09/2013-nz-innovators-awards-finalists-revealed

There is a peoples choice award as well ... you guys better get organised

[blakecb]

We look set for a move up today...seller has not appeared....well positioned....

[baller18]

Yup, should've hold onto my parcel... dammit

[MAC]

I had a chat with a couple people from Novartis and Celgene when I was up in New Jersey last month. Their opinion was that at the end of the day it all comes down to cost. If CxBladder is cheaper than the rest (so long as it is as effective as the competition) it would sell. They also explained to me how big companies like Novartis frequently take over the development of products from smaller companies who struggle to manage these product's development post phase 1 (or 2) trials. Whilst they were referring to drugs not tests it made me think that IF PEB struggle to get sales going, the fall back position will likely be a takeover (so long as the hype around cost and effectiveness is accurate).

Let's not forget that health professionals will gravitate toward superior medical solutions that ultimately improve a patient’s health. There is also the power of patient demand, and word of mouth that we must not underestimate.

Price point is important and health professionals will pay a premium for a product like cxbladder that ultimately both better benefits the patient and also reduces overall work up costs.

This link provides an example in application, it independently compares cxbladder to the existing market competition NMP22. Alere the maker of NMP22 claim was that NMP22 was the only FDA approved non lab diagnostic test kit.

http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.co.nz/2013/08/nmp-22-cxbladder-comparison.html

[Whipmoney]

A novel bladder cancer detection test an entrant in the NZ Innovators Awards .... along with the innovative cardboard pet casket range

http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/09/2013-nz-innovators-awards-finalists-revealed

There is a peoples choice award as well ... you guys better get organised


Yeah that's them:

Innovation in Health and Science
Sponsored by Ko Awatea CMDHB
Bodystance Ltd - Backpod™
Footfalls and Heartbeats Ltd (FHL) - Footfalls and Heartbeats
Pacific Edge - Cxbladder; A novel bladder cancer detection test
Texus Fibre Ltd Helix Non - Woven Natural Composite Materials
University of Otago - X-imm24

[blobbles]

4811

4812

This is the very basic modelling I have done at the moment for PEB. There are just way too many unknowns for further analysis as far as I am concerned, but it does go to show you that if they are successful, they should be very successful!

Note that the market sizes are estimates based on comparative population sizes. The only market size we really know about is the US at around 2 million, the rest are extrapolated, but assume the US is unhealthier by 25% and therefore the rest are smaller even after considering population size.

Ignore the blue column, this was part of another analysis.

This does not take into account growth, year on year etc, it simply is a model which has % market penetration. I have assumed a lesser amount in NZD for the tests than they may actually be sold for and assume the penetration in each market to be the same (obviously it won't be in reality but you get the idea).

[MAC]

This is the very basic modelling I have done at the moment for PEB. There are just way too many unknowns for further analysis as far as I am concerned, but it does go to show you that if they are successful, they should be very successful!

Those figures look fine blobbles and are in rough alignment with PEB’s own provision of market penetration gross profit estimates.

We must be cautious in anticipating too much at HY14 reporting. PEB commenced sales within the US on 1st July 2013, thus there are 3 months of sales accumulation to the end of the reporting period on 30th September 2013.

The five US sales staff are both new to the company and the technology, and during this 3 month period we should regard them as being in training. Customer relationships will also just be starting to be identified and formed.

Based on nothing more than PEB’s achievements in the NZ and Australia market to date, a HY14 sales figure of just a couple of hundred tests would be an exceptional result in my opinion. Although we should expect the ramp up to start in earnest in the second half year to FY14.

My FA of the forward revenue stream to $100M provides me with an understanding that PEB may well be a $5 stock in FY16, however, it will not be a straight line, a ramp up is required.

I agree that it is more difficult to estimate early revenues without better guidance from PEB. My efforts in tracking and following PEB over the last 12 months, and anticipating sales from the information we do have, provide me with a FY14 valuation of $1.25.

[baller18]

Seems like our seller has left the building..

[robbo24]

Seems like our seller has left the building..

Was it you (again) baller18?

[Snow Leopard]

4811

4812

This is the very basic modelling I have done at the moment for PEB. There are just way too many unknowns for further analysis as far as I am concerned, but it does go to show you that if they are successful, they should be very successful!

Note that the market sizes are estimates based on comparative population sizes. The only market size we really know about is the US at around 2 million, the rest are extrapolated, but assume the US is unhealthier by 25% and therefore the rest are smaller even after considering population size.

Ignore the blue column, this was part of another analysis.

This does not take into account growth, year on year etc, it simply is a model which has % market penetration. I have assumed a lesser amount in NZD for the tests than they may actually be sold for and assume the penetration in each market to be the same (obviously it won't be in reality but you get the idea).

I see from your posts that you suggest a Gross Profit of 50% and I believe you use those figures directly to determine EPS. I have a vague memory that the projected Gross Profit for PEB is actually higher.

Gross profit is generally based on the direct cost (manufacture) of sales but will definitely exclude a number of possibly significant items: Income Tax, Interest, Depreciation of Assets etc and may include much more.
I believe your EPS figures would be a lot more realistic if you work on a 20-25% profit/revenue margin in a few years time.
I seem to recall a comment from PEB that it would be two years (FY 2015?) before they had a positive cash flow.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Xerof]

It was a block crossing Moosie, not part of the auction. These are usually just shifting across nominee companys or such like.

ST is giving away flags in SF at the moment, and there was a distinct lack of selling pressure today, as predicted on this channel yesterday.

whether what his 'broker' is saying is true or not, time will tell, but for now I am very happy being long

[blakecb]

I think there will be much more to go! Given ST has decided to realise some profits, he will likely sell between a third to half of his holding.

Brighton does IRESS indicate who the buyer is?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If my memory is right, it looks like it's pretty much the exact same size as the two off market transactions the other day combined.

[Schrodinger]

What's your thoughts on this Brighton? As far as I can see, CxBladder is the most accurate test on the market and should take over and be more successful (because of its accuracy and ability to grade cancers) than NMP22. The market sizes are quite large, around 2 million potential test per year in the US, possibly 1.5 million in Europe (similar sized, but healthier market, this is an estimate) plus the rest of the world once they get their act together. At $550 a test in the US and possibly a gross profit margin of 50% (which is what Alere, the makers of NMP22 report as obtaining), you are talking about big $$$.

Like others have said, @ 10% of the US market only we are talking about $110 million revenue, $55 million profit, 19c EPS. And if its as good as it appears, we could be looking at 50% market penetration in a few years, requiring of course substantial expansion on PEB's behalf, but translating to $550 million revenue, $225 million profit and 75c EPS.

And that would just be the US figures. Add in Europe and we are talking a third more again (assuming less profit margin) if it grows at the same rate....

I understand it's all potentials until people start buying. That there are politics involved which could get in the way. But competition appears to be years behind and accuracy over current methods is miles ahead. Once patients know that the product exists I am sure they will start demanding it.

Not going to happen. Divide your figures by at least 10 to begin sounding realistic.

[Balance]

My prediction after talking to a J & J executive - PEB will be taken over soon.

$1 will just about do it. for the first 50%.

[Intel]

To suggest the Company will gain over 50% penetration is just silly! 5 - 10% is a more realistic projection. As for a GP margin, it will be over 80%.


5 - 10% is probably the worst prediction possible... (no offence intended)

A product like CX bladder will have a seemingly binary outcome, success or failure. You only have to look at other healthcare diagnostics/prognostics or even CX bladders penetration in the NZ Market to realise this.

Rough NZ numbers, obtained from DHB reach by population and a little bit of algebra!

Mid Central on board, (3.8% of NZ market ,400 tests, pop'n reach 166,000). Add Canterbury (11.6% of NZ market ,1210 tests, pop'n reach 502,000) and Waitemata (12.2% of NZ market ,1274 tests, pop'n reach 528,500) and you are up to 27.6% of the NZ market that PEB has established (Not bad penetration in 2-3 years). Canterbury and Waitemata not gauranteed but in my view highly probable.

I posted previosuly about the success of other diagnostics and prognostics and their ability to penetrate their products respective markets. Once again, a seemingly binary outcome, where you obtain high market penetration (circa 80%+) or failure (0%)

This is the game PEB are in and I like it.

If you are on top and have the best product you will win, until the day your IP gets surpassed... (however long that is I dont know but is a risk that must not be lost on everyone)

Anyway may it be onwards and upwards and lets hope for US success where I am expecting small USD figures to be flowing in through H1 FY15!

Disc: Holding A lot

[Xerof]

My prediction after talking to a J & J executive - PEB will be taken over soon.

$1 will just about do it. for the first 50%.

Yes, should be about right. I won't be one of the mugs who sell into any such bid, in fact on the strength of such a company sniffing, I'll be happy to buy more at the time

[blobbles]

Not going to happen. Divide your figures by at least 10 to begin sounding realistic.

Why? Please include your own analysis.

I thought we could show each other our respective analyses, or should we just say "YES" and "NO" and "MAYBE".

I completely accept that over 30-40% penetration maybe pie-in-the-sky dreaming which is not likely to eventuate. But please someone offer some backed up evidence to the contrary. Why only 5-10% Brighton? It appears to be the best test available.

[Schrodinger]

I would prob start to try and fine tune your numbers a little...

Who are the current incumbents and what are their financials/market share/pricing structures/partnerships etc...aim is to understand the current market situation.

Who is PEB selling to. Are they distributors who supply the market/hospitals etc or are they going direct. Direct sales to clinics and hospitals will take decades. Selling to large distributors will potentially give market access but hurt margins.

I am skepitical a hospital/distributor/clinic etc will just dump a tried and tested product for an unknown kiwi product. However if the product is so revolutionary then this can possibly be ignored. Most of the health system in the US is slow and traditional and won't willingly buy from an unknown company.

Another piece of information I would be looking for is a "sales announcement" indicating they have secured a large distributor and/or the product is flying of the shelf and they can keep up. If I don't hear this quickly I would doubt the market potential of the product in the US.

Cross reference this with PEB sales forecasts then combine the two to get a more accurate investment picture.

[MAC]

It's nice to see a bit of cxbladder discussion on the US bladder cancer blog sites, this one has a fair question to ask;

http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladder-cancer-advocacy-network/discussion/cxbladder-better-than-cytoscopy-how-is-this-not-main-stream-already/

[robbo24]

It's nice to see a bit of cxbladder discussion on the US bladder cancer blog sites, this one has a fair question to ask;

http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladder-cancer-advocacy-network/discussion/cxbladder-better-than-cytoscopy-how-is-this-not-main-stream-already/

Those poor mongrels have to get a flammin' rod rammed up the old boy every 3 months... Patients must be relieved to see another option in the midst...

[blakecb]

As for sales, they haven't provided forecasted sales numbers on an annual basis?

They have indeed. I came across the below image last night from the 2011 capital raising. Shows how they get to $100m in 5 years.

Also gives us something definitive by which to compare how the company thinks they will go with how they actually go. We know sales started 1st of July, so for the 1st of July 2014 we want to see 9,128 tests sold for the company to be 'on track' for their $100m in 5 years.

Agree that this year's end of year reporting won't give us any real indication as to how they are going, as sales momentum takes a bit to build up.

4819

[MAC]

Hi MAC, thanks for that, I have posted some information in reply; I usually monitor 'Inspire' for that reason. The response may be of assistance to the poor souls who the product is designed for; and, should relieve their stress and discomfort with the present regime and the poor quality genetic tests available at the moment.

That will be appreciated my many afflicted Hancock’s, I'm starting to think you may be PEB's best ambassador!.

[forest]

They have indeed. I came across the below image last night from the 2011 capital raising. Shows how they get to $100m in 5 years.

Also gives us something definitive by which to compare how the company thinks they will go with how they actually go. We know sales started 1st of July, so for the 1st of July 2014 we want to see 9,128 tests sold for the company to be 'on track' for their $100m in 5 years.

Agree that this year's end of year reporting won't give us any real indication as to how they are going, as sales momentum takes a bit to build up.

4819

Blakeck would I be right to think this is just the revenue forecast for the US, were PEB will initially concentrate their sales? No forecast are made as far as I am aware for other regions.

[blakecb]

Blakeck would I be right to think this is just the revenue forecast for the US, were PEB will initially concentrate their sales? No forecast are made as far as I am aware for other regions.

Yes those figures are for the US alone; I haven't seen figures for other regions. Certainly if they achieve anywhere near that kind of success in the US we could all be holding an absolute goldmine, both in its own right and when you start to think about global prospects.

If PEB can close at or above 56 today it is excellent news TA wise, so here's hoping for that as well.

[baller18]

that was a quick recovery..

[baller18]

wow 57 cents...

[blakecb]

The seller was Newburg Nominees Ltd. They held 2,684,154, sold 1,684,154 leaving 1,000,000.

Brighton can you see who the buyer was....I know you can only see net moves but do you see a net gain for someone? Has anyone increased their position significantly over the last few weeks?

[croesus]

Once 59 and 60 c sells are taken....( about 170,000 shares ) there are practically no other shares to be brought.

That can change in a instant though.

First sniff of sales at or above expectations... this stock will fly.

[hilskin]

Just gone 59cents . nice

[croesus]

59c... being nibbled

[croesus]

Currently 77330 available at 59c 108230 at 60c 833 at 61c 8333 at 62c................that's it.

[baller18]

Currently 77330 available at 59c 108230 at 60c 833 at 61c 8333 at 62c................that's it.
Sellers will start returning, just like SML.
Not sure at what price though...

[AndyLP]

Any one pick up some at 48c? Nice work if you did...

[winner69]

Trading good old linear regression channels seem to be working these days ... DIL and FBU good recent examples (at least 2 I am interested in)

PEB looking promising for a breakout of a quite a long term downtrend (nearly 9 month so far) .... 63 cents is needed for a breakout

The bounce of the bottom of the channel sub 50 has been profitable so far ..... hopefully this might turn into a long term trade ..... but out of the top of the channel proves to be resistance

[blakecb]

I picked some up on Tuesday at 51cps...pretty happy that I did so!! Watching this rise is great entertainment, and very distracting! Looks like a great upward breakout....up and up she goes where it will stop nobody knows.....

[baller18]

You prob bought my parcel at 51 cents blake... sighs....

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Well all of my buy signals are going off, but as Moosie said the afternoon can change things. A break past the 58-61 cent range would be a HUGE buy signal.

[baller18]

Well all of my buy signals are going off, but as Moosie said the afternoon can change things. A break past the 58-61 cent range would be a HUGE buy signal.
Are you a TA trader johnny?

[Minerbarejet]

Oi, settle down everyone, we havent even got back to the previous high ,YET, but the way things are going it might not be too long.:):):):)

[baller18]

baller, are we learning the hard way these days matey or what?!?!
I bought it at 50 cents, thinking it would stay 49 - 51 cents, then left my sell order in, then the good news came out. Thought I'll make a small pip then and there... Experience, experience

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Are you a TA trader johnny?

Primarily fundamental, but use TA for timing my buys and sells. Will happily make trades if I see the opportunity though. I'm by no means a TA expert.

[Balance]

haha great minds think alike eh turmeric? there's too many big sellers left (my assumption, not known for sure) around 60 that I would offload until it retraces downwards again closer to the December results for a longer term hold.

just my 2 cents :)

Problem with TA is that it does not take into consideration breakout news like takeovers.

Imagine selling out of PEB at 60c and then, read of a takeover bid for $1.20 the next day?

[blakecb]

Problem with TA is that it does not take into consideration breakout news like takeovers.

Imagine selling out of PEB at 60c and then, read of a takeover bid for $1.20 the next day?

Good point Balance. I don't see the sellers lining up as of yet at the 59/60cps mark, perhaps people have these kinds of issues in mind? There just seems to be so much potential with this stock - I'm happy to have purchased and will hold on now, unless something changes.

[winner69]

Moosie - the pros must be a long lunch today ....or just not interested in PEB because of low volumes

[Xerof]

Well, so far so good, no more was added to the 52 line, and with a little assistance from yours truely, it almost got cleaned out by the close

Aahh, I like it when all goes to plan

sellers pulling out at 60......

[JohnnyTheHorse]

short term risk vs reward suggests if you didn't buy yesterday or early today its too late. don't crack the bottles yet, its much easier to sell than buy remember...

Agree completely. Virtually all the technicals are indicating BUY, however at this point I suspect most traders would wait for a break of 61 before getting in as they have missed the boat. The sellers at 59 and 60 will be traders exiting their positions with a nice healthy profit for the week (and good on them). The big question is whether there are any large sellers left that will start off-loading at 59-60. There has been a good shake out on large volume so it's possible they are all gone for now. If they are gone then I suspect we may see a break of 61 and a nice wee run as all the traders pile in. I watch with interest!

Disc: Holding.

[Bobcat.]

I bought yesterday morning and will hold. This is not the sort of stock to day-trade or even week-trade. It goes into the bottom drawer along with NTL, ERA, WHN, JPR and PDN.

If it continues to climb as it has today to approach $1, I will be offering all positive contributors to this thread a beer of their choice.

BC

[Xerof]

Agree completely. Virtually all the technicals are indicating BUY, however at this point I suspect most traders would wait for a break of 61 before getting in as they have missed the boat. The sellers at 59 and 60 will be traders exiting their positions with a nice healthy profit for the week (and good on them). The big question is whether there are any large sellers left that will start off-loading at 59-60. There has been a good shake out on large volume so it's possible they are all gone for now. If they are gone then I suspect we may see a break of 61 and a nice wee run as all the traders pile in. I watch with interest!

Disc: Holding.

can't fault the logic JtH, but not too many traders if thats all there is on offer. You are correct to advise buy the 61 break (closing basis, not intraday)

[Balance]

Just a feeling that there's s big buyer out there as there's a Mexican standoff at 58/59c.

No crossings happening.

Will buyer pay up?

[Minerbarejet]

Good steady progress in the right direction based on some solid news regarding the Nz perspective.
Just a thought Baller- if you really must trade this share why dont you get a cushion ie buy a few and put them away in an investment portfolio. Then put the rest into trading- could be wrong but I get the feeling you may make more out of the investment block in the long run- but I guess there is always the thrilllllllllll of the chase.
This doesnt appear to be a short term share to me especially with other products coming along. If they are all equally non invasive and accurate then 58/59 cents is more likely to be the dividend than the share price- that may be a slight exaggeration but you never know:)

[baller18]

Good steady progress in the right direction based on some solid news regarding the Nz perspective.
Just a thought Baller- if you really must trade this share why dont you get a cushion ie buy a few and put them away in an investment portfolio. Then put the rest into trading- could be wrong but I get the feeling you may make more out of the investment block in the long run- but I guess there is always the thrilllllllllll of the chase.
This doesnt appear to be a short term share to me especially with other products coming along. If they are all equally non invasive and accurate then 58/59 cents is more likely to be the dividend than the share price- that may be a slight exaggeration but you never know:)
Agree totally, was just a bit short on cash,as I'm going away on holiday in two weeks. Will definitely buy back and hold it for long term, and hopefully before it bursts through 61 cents :)

[blobbles]

Some more good press, CxBladder is a finalist for the innovators of the year...

http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/09/2013-nz-innovators-awards-finalists-revealed

[winner69]

Some more good press, CxBladder is a finalist for the innovators of the year...

http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/09/2013-nz-innovators-awards-finalists-revealed




There's a People's Choice award as well ......organise the troops

[nextbigthing]

Can anybody please tell me what's going on with CxColorectal?

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/cxcolorectal (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/cxcolorectal)

The website is hardly splurging information. Of interest is the last line 'It is anticipated that the test will be launched in the Australasian market by Pacific Edge by mid 2012'.

So this should have happened by now?

Disc; Like the product so starting research!

[bonne vie]

Can anybody please tell me what's going on with CxColorectal?

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/cxcolorectal (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/cxcolorectal)

The website is hardly splurging information. Of interest is the last line 'It is anticipated that the test will be launched in the Australasian market by Pacific Edge by mid 2012'.

So this should have happened by now?

Disc; Like the product so starting research!

If you go to the home page and pick up the "news" Tab you can see the progress to date in all regions- Australasia, Portugal, Spain, US. This should bring you up to speed quicker than the many pages on this forum.

Disc Hold

[MAC]

Can anybody please tell me what's going on with CxColorectal?

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/cxcolorectal (http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/cxcolorectal)

The website is hardly splurging information. Of interest is the last line 'It is anticipated that the test will be launched in the Australasian market by Pacific Edge by mid 2012'.

So this should have happened by now?

Disc; Like the product so starting research!

At the AGM David Darling advised that cxcolorectal was on hold awaiting cashflow. The suggestion, as I understood it, was that the development of the now four cxbladder products was a more lucrative prospect as they can all be marketed with the same sales force into the same customer base. When cxcolorectal is kicked off, it must be marketed to oncologists rather than urologists, thus a different customer base.

In addition, advice was also provided suggesting that the roll out of the cxbladder products will occur at a rate that revenues will support, the implication was that the five sales staff for cxbladder will be increasingly ramped up over time as cashflow supports toward the target of 19 as the priority.

He responded to a question in regard to concern that competitors may potentially overtake PEB whilst cxcolorectal was on hold, by saying that yes that was a concern, but cxbladder was the priority. I took from this that cxbladder is far more advanced and is already commercial thus PEB must prioritise available cashflow to it for now.

But, what a great position to be in having too many great products to progress.

Trust this assists.

[nextbigthing]

Thank you all. I shall read up and undoubtedly end up with more questions than answers!

[MAC]

Ian Clements has yet a further update for those, like myself, who may be following his independent comparison of cxbladder and the only other, albeit dated and lower tech, competitor in the market NMP22.

What I like about this comparison is that it’s entirely independent feedback directly from the market. I think his quote below sums up succinctly what cxbladder will do for those unfortunate enough to be inflicted with bladder cancer;

“For my money (well, actually not my money, more my life), Cxbladder appears more likely to reflect my cancerousness, and more quickly too”.

http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.co.nz/2013/09/good-cxbladder-result-melanoma-womb.html

PEB’s own extensive research and the market also now is starting to regard cxbladder as a superior product to NMP22, and of course cxbladder is more versatile and has applications well beyond NMP22’s specification.

Given that there is no other competition close to commercialisation and that the barriers to entry for this market are simply enormous, with clinical trials and regulatory approvals requiring years, it would seem that PEB are looking quite well placed to make an impact in this market ?.

[blobbles]

I would prob start to try and fine tune your numbers a little...

Who are the current incumbents and what are their financials/market share/pricing structures/partnerships etc...aim is to understand the current market situation.

Who is PEB selling to. Are they distributors who supply the market/hospitals etc or are they going direct. Direct sales to clinics and hospitals will take decades. Selling to large distributors will potentially give market access but hurt margins.

I am skepitical a hospital/distributor/clinic etc will just dump a tried and tested product for an unknown kiwi product. However if the product is so revolutionary then this can possibly be ignored. Most of the health system in the US is slow and traditional and won't willingly buy from an unknown company.

Another piece of information I would be looking for is a "sales announcement" indicating they have secured a large distributor and/or the product is flying of the shelf and they can keep up. If I don't hear this quickly I would doubt the market potential of the product in the US.

Cross reference this with PEB sales forecasts then combine the two to get a more accurate investment picture.

Sorry about this, I only looked back at these today!

All of this information is available and researched already and in this forum.

The current incumbent is NMP22 - Alere/Matritech. There are others but none appear to be used as widely. I can't find sales figures on them but I did read a quote from the CEO in 2007 which said they had sold over a million tests. That was in 2007 and it had only really gone to market with it in 2001 (previously Matritech appeared to be failing to sell substantial numbers). They report a 50% margin, hence my use of the same figure.

PEB are direct selling to hospitals and LUGs at the moment, distributor agreements could be forthcoming, we just don't know. You can be skeptical that a hospital won't dump a tried and tested product for an unknown one only for so long - every test (and there have been 3 major ones at least), plus peer reviewed articles point to the product being superior in a number of ways, not just accuracy.

[Minerbarejet]

For a bit of perspective
PEB are doing user trials with 5 LUG groups in the US. Each group has approx 100 members so lets say that is 500 urologists. In order to achieve 9128 tests then each urologist will have to see 1.5 patient tests per month. If I may humbly suggest that there are probably a lot more than that presenting with haematuria on a per urologist
basis. Anything that can do the test quickly, accurately, non invasively and with less cost overall will be the one to succeed.
By the way, Schrodinger - hows the cat?

[Minerbarejet]

Not all of the urologists will use the test. It will be very slow going.lets say 10 percent do take it on then they would have to see a patient every second day to make the 9128 tests which is in my opinion is not particularly busy. These are only the LUG groups trials not sales, I am trying to make the point that 9128 in sales seems fairly achievable if 10 percent of 5 Lug groups take cxbladder on board
Once this happens and confidence grows word of mouth will probably get a much bigger part of the group involved.

[blobbles]

For a bit of perspective
PEB are doing user trials with 5 LUG groups in the US. Each group has approx 100 members so lets say that is 500 urologists. In order to achieve 9128 tests then each urologist will have to see 1.5 patient tests per month. If I may humbly suggest that there are probably a lot more than that presenting with haematuria on a per urologist
basis. Anything that can do the test quickly, accurately, non invasively and with less cost overall will be the one to succeed.
By the way, Schrodinger - hows the cat?

My question is - do user trails relate to full price sales? I would think when a user test is on, the product would be sold at a considerable discount. Not that that would be a bad thing, foot in the door and all that.

[MAC]

Most user studies are fully funded by PEB.

Thanks for that information Brighton Early, can you provide a link or a reference, many thanks.

The quote below is from the FY13 annual report which suggests that the user programs are about all done by this time and that PEB anticipate that they should be translating into full commercial relationships which will add to revenue within 2013.

4830

[blobbles]

Most user studies are fully funded by PEB.

Aaah, that's what I thought. I think one of the biggest indicators of how this sells well then will be the user trail to product sales conversion ratio. Watch with interest!

[Dentie]

IMO, a business model with a philanthropic aspect is always well rewarded over time. Whereas, one based solely on "how much money can we make?" per se' is fundamentally flawed and won't ever reach its full potential.

At the risk of over-whipping the horse, I think PEB is in a good space in all respects. They have the right product/s, the right attitude, the right management and the right business model to do very well indeed.

[MAC]

To become an informed investor, it is very important to read and review all available information when investing in a stock like PEB.

Below is a link to text, comments and a couple of very interesting videos.

Hyperlink: Alternative Diagnosis Methodology (http://io9.com/5953234/urine-flavor-wheels-helped-doctors-diagnose-patients-pee-centuries-ago)

Fascinating Hancock’s, makes you glad you were not a doc in 1674!, wheels are still humming at PEB though.

[Dentie]

To become an informed investor, it is very important to read and review all available information when investing in a stock like PEB.

Below is a link to text, comments and a couple of very interesting videos.

Hyperlink: Alternative Diagnosis Methodology (http://io9.com/5953234/urine-flavor-wheels-helped-doctors-diagnose-patients-pee-centuries-ago)

Ha ha ha Hancocks. No one can ever accuse you of not being an informed investor - especially in respect to PEB! The depth of your research is unending. I am in awe of your research talent & skill! I enjoy learning from you. Thanks.

[Minerbarejet]

I wonder if this is where the phase " getting p--sed " came from?
Two things we need for PEB, Doctors and Patience.:)

[Schrodinger]

By the way, Schrodinger - hows the cat?

Still trying to make up its mind regarding sales...

[Minerbarejet]

Still trying to make up its mind regarding sales...So its still alive as far as you know.

[Dentie]

Appears as though someone got nervous once the SP reached back to the dizzy heights of 58c.

Could've been the beginning of a new upward trend but ...

[Xerof]

It has a gap to fill down to 54. Filling it on very light volume. A few sellers above at near term past resistance, but nothing special (no sign of any LARGE SELLERS)

[Dentie]

Too many big sellers still in there matey potatey, need to wait for those sales figures to come out before 60 is broken again ;)


Thanks Moosie - I wonder of those big sellers will still be as keen when the sales figures start to emerge and they are positive figures??

[MAC]

So, where have summarily now got to after last week’s activity and all that good discussion on the forum;

District health boards are now signing up contracts, the 2000 test user programs rolled out over the last year in the US and NZ are presently coming to a close and PEB have advised that they expect those user programmes to lead to contracts within 2013.

The competitive technology edge that PEB have demonstrated scientifically, and through clinical trials is being confirmed by the market making them ‘best in breed’. Also, the barriers to market entry are enormous, requiring years of trials and regulatory approvals, and there is no serious competition on the horizon.

Cancer blog sites are very active with cxbladder chatter and demand side discussion, and it is clear that those unfortunate enough to be inflicted with bladder cancer are lobbying their urologists very hard indeed for this technology.

It would seem that there is little if any reason to doubt that we will see an increase in sales at HY14.

With the SP being so exceptionally far below fundamental valuation, and 25% below its six month high of $0.76, IMO it would take really very little now to spark a step up toward fundamental valuation, an announcement, or just simply a medium size buyer in what is a low liquidity stock. Could happen any time.

I wish all those who have supported PEB a rewarding few months ahead.

[CJ]

So, where have summarily now got to after last week’s activity and all that good discussion on the forum;

District health boards are now signing up contracts, the 2000 test user programs rolled out over the last year in the US and NZ are presently coming to a close and PEB have advised that they expect those user programmes to lead to contracts within 2013.

The competitive technology edge that PEB have demonstrated scientifically, and through clinical trials is being confirmed by the market making them ‘best in breed’. Also, the barriers to market entry are enormous, requiring years of trials and regulatory approvals, and there is no serious competition on the horizon.

Cancer blog sites are very active with cxbladder chatter and demand side discussion, and it is clear that those unfortunate enough to be inflicted with bladder cancer are lobbying their urologists very hard indeed for this technology.

It would seem that there is little if any reason to doubt that we will see an increase in sales at HY14.

With the SP being so exceptionally far below fundamental valuation, and 25% below its six month high of $0.76, IMO it would take really very little now to spark a step up toward fundamental valuation, an announcement, or just simply a medium size buyer in what is a low liquidity stock. Could happen any time.

I wish all those who have supported PEB a rewarding few months ahead.Nice ramp.

It does seem to have everything in its favour with the only thing holding it back is that it is still at the pre-sale stage. Once that hurdle is passed, this should be a good success story for NZ.

Disc: Hold and may top up if it falls again.

[Dentie]

Hi Mac - nice post.

However, some help please, when you talk of "fundamental valuation", can you give me some understanding of how much you believe that is and how you calculated it? I have seen Sparky's "back of the envelope" valuation calculations but am trying to learn a more orthodox way of valuing a SP generally speaking. There appears to be lots of differing views from different quarters.

Much appreciated!...

[baller18]

I don't quite understand how you can calculate a "valuation" when there has yet to be any earnings.

I'm assuming, the value is more of a "speculated value", rather than an intrinsic value..

[garfy]

An excellent summation MAC. I know of no other company that has placed itself on the market with such praiseworthy research and expertise. Thank you for your input.

Disc: Holding, and topped up again this morning (along with another couple of others!)

[MAC]

Hi Dente, we each use our own valuation models and methods so it always seems a bit difficult to discuss and compare FA in a post, but if the inputs are reasonable then all is good, yeh ?.

I’m using revenue and gross margin streams as summarised below providing me with a FY14 valuation of $1.25.

This assumes the $100M revenue forecast that PEB have made and also the gross profit margins they have estimated, allows for a gradual ramp up in growth toward their 100M target, a 3M loss at HY14, first profit in 2015, and a 40% forward gross margin from that point. Happy to compare assumptions and inputs, I like to be a bit conservative as PEB don't provide a lot of guidance.

4833

[nextbigthing]

.....
District health boards are now signing up contracts,
.......


Hi Mac,

Is this an assumption based on the fact they are completing trials or is there an article about this?

Cheers NBT

Disc; Not yet holding, currently researching.

[MAC]

Yes, assumption based on announcements, rate of progress and the signup of mid central health.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/GE1305/S00176/midcentral-dhb-first-in-new-zealand-to-utilise-cxbladder.htm

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/236858

The tone from the 10 September announcement seems to suggest that the completion of the two local user trials was a big success with the DHB’s and I do like the resulting comment from the PEB commercial manager, Brent Pownall;

“We look forward to having this product more widely used in New Zealand’s healthcare programmes, thus benefiting DHBs, clinicians and patients alike.”

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/240937

[blakecb]

It will be an interesting week for the market due to the FOMC meeting in the USA on Wednesday (their time). It is the meeting at which the FED is likely to signal the beginning of the end of its bond buying programme....if it does confirm that the markets will be down....if it postpones it the markets will probably see new highs. Probably explains the hesitancy within the market so far this week.

[benjitara]

“We look forward to having this product more widely used in New Zealand’s healthcare programmes, thus benefiting DHBs, clinicians and patients alike.”

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/240937

Yes. As I've said in a recent post that quote was a strong indicator for me that the DHBs that had tried the product we're certainly looking like employing it as common practice. A great sign of confidence in the product and science behind it.

[barney]

There certainly seems to be some increased talk on some of the health forums regarding cxbladder. Casting my mind back to the agm, I think PEB are due to launch the new cxbladder website on september 20th, so this should provide some more info for customers.

[Dentie]

Hi Dente, we each use our own valuation models and methods so it always seems a bit difficult to discuss and compare FA in a post, but if the inputs are reasonable then all is good, yeh ?.

I’m using revenue and gross margin streams as summarised below providing me with a FY14 valuation of $1.25.

This assumes the $100M revenue forecast that PEB have made and also the gross profit margins they have estimated, allows for a gradual ramp up in growth toward their 100M target, a 3M loss at HY14, first profit in 2015, and a 40% forward gross margin from that point. Happy to compare assumptions and inputs, I like to be a bit conservative as PEB don't provide a lot of guidance.

4833

Thanks Mac - certainly helps me understand from a different perspective. A think it is always a bit easier when they have consistency and runs on the board (a la Ryman etc) but as you point out, PEB do play their cards close to their chest. Probably have to until they are in full on retail mode.

[benjitara]

Can anyone help me understand this stock better for my research tells me that in 10 years they have never earned a cent, the share price until one year ago had been doing very little then, based on one product launch which is still being launch, the share price suddenly tripled.
.

I think you've answered your own question as to why the sp has good well. Any medical product takes time to get to market but PEB now has one on the market generating sales. The product is know to have a competitive edge on current forms of treatment. It's in a massive market (highly regulated obviously) but once USA sales start this SP will be considered very low indeed. Huge potential in the stock with a product in the marketplace.

[biker]

So, where have summarily now got to after last week’s activity and all that good discussion on the forum;

District health boards are now signing up contracts, ...........

This should be singular. Only one DHB has signed up so far. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Can anyone help me understand this stock better for my research tells me that in 10 years they have never earned a cent, the share price until one year ago had been doing very little then, based on one product launch which is still being launch, the share price suddenly tripled.
They keep creating more and more share's which currently make's the company worth 160 million.
It seems on the info I read the company has been very very slow to deliver.

Seems to be alot fo exspectation riding on one or two products that could easily be dionsaurs very quickly.

That's the nature of the industry. Products take a long time to develop and then a very long time to validate. Without the validation stage (clinical trials) no company would be willing to purchase the product. I'm sure they could have moved quicker in some areas, but they have been trying to do it "cheaply". As for your last comment, any competitor would be years off commercialisation (think of how long it has taken PEB). You also need to remember that CxBladder is likely to be continually improved with new biomarkers if and when they are discovered. This means CxBladder will stay at the leading edge.

I believe sales in the first year wont tell us too much. What you want to be watching for is LUG's and the like signing up (which may take a year or so to broker that agreement and conduct user trials).

[Wolf]

Haha i was planning on entering today but hesitated because of the US meeting on Wednesday. Had some unpleasant experiences buying in before important meetings.
Kinda wish i had now looking at the 3.6% increase hope it doesn't take off yet.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Haha i was planning on entering today but hesitated because of the US meeting on Wednesday. Had some unpleasant experiences buying in before important meetings.
Kinda wish i had now looking at the 3.6% increase hope it doesn't take off yet.

What meeting is this?

[AndyLP]

Haha i was planning on entering today but hesitated because of the US meeting on Wednesday. Had some unpleasant experiences buying in before important meetings.
Kinda wish i had now looking at the 3.6% increase hope it doesn't take off yet.

Have I missed something here?

[okay]

I expect Wolf is referring to the FED meeting on whether to taper and how much not about a PEB meeting.

[Wolf]

Yes sorry, should have been more clear about that.

[Minerbarejet]

Do your homework, buy PEB, sit back , shut up, and wait. Sell. Goes without saying really.
What else are you trying to do?

[Schrodinger]

Do your homework, buy PEB, sit back , shut up, and wait. Sell. Goes without saying really.
What else are you trying to do?

+1............

[garfy]

Cancer doesn't give a hoot about the state of the tide.

[etrader]

Miner you hit it on the nail.

I bought for a 10 bagger over 5 years.

*They are years ahead of competitors
^debt free with cash flow positive in 18 months
^great strong humble leadership
^will become a takeover target

Those are the facts to why I have purchased, the small changes are out of my control.

[lastmoa]

Cellmid (CDY on ASX) just released an investor update and I see it contains their expectation for royalties from 2nd 1/2 of 2014.
Dunno if this is 'known' news as haven't really been following the PEB thread even though I am a holder.

[Wolf]

Do your homework, buy PEB, sit back , shut up, and wait. Sell. Goes without saying really.
What else are you trying to do?

I've been burned before because of US announcements and would rather wait. I've done my homework on PEB and am very interested in the company. I have no clue about coming up with a reasonable price for PEB as have never invested in a company like it before. I'm looking at buying PEB and holding for a long time not buying and selling and believe i can find a less volatile entry point.

[PartyPooper]

I've been burned before because of US announcements and would rather wait. I've done my homework on PEB and am very interested in the company. I have no clue about coming up with a reasonable price for PEB as have never invested in a company like it before. I'm looking at buying PEB and holding for a long time not buying and selling and believe i can find a less volatile entry point.

Ditto here, was waiting for the SP to dip to around 50c before buying in. Doesn't look like retreating below 55c at the moment though.

[Balance]

I posted a couple of responses on a couple of bladder cancer advocacy websites in response to some direct questions from sufferers about Cxbladder. My responses gave them some information (via hyperlinks) and the contact details of PEDUSA. I deleted my posts after a few days when I knew that they had visited the site (they had posted extra information or acknowledgement etc.) because it is for cancer sufferers and their family (supporters) and I would feel extremely uncomfortable and embarrassed if it ends up as an extension of Share Trader and that would be a very very bad look for Pacific Edge!

FYI

Below is an excerpt from my PEDUSA response; the gaps do not detract from the message, but are personal comments or identifying and I do not want to disseminate them.

Our Cxbladder commercialization plans are going very well here in the US and we are excited about the value it brings to both bladder cancer patients and clinicians.

……………………………………………………. is indeed a good forum(s) for creating advocacy and awareness for Cxbladder, ……………………………………………………. We have already received enquiries from patients who want to be proactive in managing their disease and are looking for more convenient, less invasive tests to diagnose and monitor their bladder cancer. We are beginning to work with …………………………………………………. to create more awareness at the patient and physician level and expect to see increasingly positive impact going forward.

THE message to be taken from this post is that Pacific Edge are vigorously working with all available agencies, institutions, groups and clinicians etc. to promote Cxbladder; so they do have all bases well and truly covered. Just as I would expect from them.

Thanks, Hancocks.

I think there are far too many in the stock who came in for a rocket ride, when the ride is going to be more akin to that of a cruiser navigating out of port - carefully, deliberately, strategically until high seas. Then it's full steam ahead.

[MAC]

Cellmid (CDY on ASX) just released an investor update and I see it contains their expectation for royalties from 2nd 1/2 of 2014.
Dunno if this is 'known' news as haven't really been following the PEB thread even though I am a holder.

Hi Dellow, Cellmid were due royalties upon the occurrence of the first US commercial sale which occurred in July 2013, so this should be a correct expectation of payment by Cellmid.

[MAC]

THE message to be taken from this post is that Pacific Edge are vigorously working with all available agencies, institutions, groups and clinicians etc. to promote Cxbladder; so they do have all bases well and truly covered. Just as I would expect from them.

That's great feedback from PEDUSA Hancock's, thanks on behalf of all.

I followed the 'inspire' thread and thought that you helped and guided them in a neutral way that was clearly appreciated.

There are always a variety of investors at differing levels of research and this kind of feedback provides good positive reinforcement of the background activity within a company that many anxiously consider are sitting right on the tipping point of a long awaited ramp up into full commercialisation.

Although some including myself would like a little more information flow from PEB, all the ducks are now in a row, and we must simply just wait and be patient for PEB to report.

[Schrodinger]

think everyone should take a look at ARNA and VVUS to remember
what happens when a biotech goes big. there's the rumourcphase, then explosion as optimism and euphoria sets in, then reality sinks in as people realise its still a business and needs to make a profit. the one difference in PEB is that they may actually deliver to standards and will not be a laggard like the other two. just my 2 cents...

Both US businesses?

[Balance]

I hope this ship is not torpedoed

My very frank opinion is that it will be torpedoed - a big healthcare company will buy the company for 10% of its real value to them.

That's just the way NZ shareholders are.

As I wrote before, $1 per share offer price should see an acquirer get at least 50%. Heck, Masfen and Tindall are already selling around current levels!

[blobbles]

My very frank opinion is that it will be torpedoed - a big healthcare company will buy the company for 10% of its real value to them.

That's just the way NZ shareholders are.

As I wrote before, $1 per share offer price should see an acquirer get at least 50%. Heck, Masfen and Tindall are already selling around current levels!

I think investors would be silly and kick themselves later if they sold at $1. By this time next year, realistically we most likely will have confirmed sales heading North very quickly and a $3-$4 SP. The potential capital gains in this one would outweigh the opportunity cost of almost any other investment, so why sell now? I will sell them my shares for $15 each :-)

[benjitara]

Will take more money and more time.

I tend to agree. I'm very positive about the future of PEB but some of the sales claims and the general pick-up of account time frames I think are at least 6 months ahead of what their actual times will be . I'm predicting that we could potentially see a couple more nz DHBs on board by early mid-2014 and a noticeable pickup in US sales in mid-late 2014. I see the next financial report making traders nervous but offering good gains for holders that will buy in again at a lower price say 40-45 cents. But for those that are wanted huge gains in the next quarter ( I would love for that to happen) but I can't see it happening as we want it to.

[Dentie]

My very frank opinion is that it will be torpedoed - a big healthcare company will buy the company for 10% of its real value to them.

That's just the way NZ shareholders are.

As I wrote before, $1 per share offer price should see an acquirer get at least 50%. Heck, Masfen and Tindall are already selling around current levels!

I agree with you Balance. For some reason in NZ - we take a very short term view of things and sell for some $$$ waved in front of our noses without thinking about the bigger picture. Political I know, but look how much we sold those 2 French agents for over the Rainbow Warrior bombing ... and those Ozzie low ballers are another good example. They wouldn't even bother trying it on here if we weren't so gullible. I will be 1 disappointed vegemite if PEB is allowed to be purchased for under $3!

[Balance]

A takeover will not be successful because an acquirer will be only interested in buying 100% of the company and so many investors could easily acquire a blocking stake - Tindall, Masfen, Harbour, ACC, etc...

Tindall and Masfen are already selling at around current prices?

[barney]

Not sure why any shareholders selling around the current price would want to team up to prevent a takeover at a higher price.

Most fund managers will sell if the price is right, especially if they are already sitting on large gains.

If K1W1 was selling, surely we would have seen a notice re change in substantial shareholding.

[barney]

They have been shareholders for years and supported the company when cash was needed; shares sold now, that they purchased at 9cents, means their holding most probably owes them nothing. If you look at the shareholders lists over the years, there are a lot still from day one, who like me have just kept topping up. The traders don't count, they trade, Pacific Edge was recognised years ago as a possible future gold mine and has a staunch following amongst some.

I agree, and certainly hope a takeover does'nt arise. However, I have a somewhat cynical view, much like Dentie and Balance, when it comes to the takeover of NZ companies. There is a long history of NZ good NZ companies being taken over at prices which are way below their real value. One I often recall with much disdain, was the takeover of Fletcher Energy when the Fletcher group was split up and flogged off. What that company would be worth now I hate to think.

I hope there is no takeover of PEB, but Cxbladder will look very attractive to some offshore companies. I've been in this stock for seven years, so I would like to see it reach it's full potential.

It's been quite a while since you kicked off this thread Hancocks, August 2005 in fact. It's been an interesting ride so far and I think the best bit is yet to come, fingers crossed.

[lastmoa]

FYI - posted on FB ------ http://www.pacificedgedx.com/

Pacific Edge shared a link.
21 minutes ago near Dunedin, Otago
We are very pleased to announce the launch of our new Pacific Edge and Cxbladder websites. Along with a fresh new look, we have included some features and content that we hope will make visiting these sites a more interactive and informative experience. Also, stay tuned for the inclusion of USA specific content that will be added in the coming days!

We hope you enjoy the new sites and would love to hear what you think about them: info@pacificedgedx.com

[MAC]

FYI - posted on FB ------ http://www.pacificedgedx.com/

Pacific Edge shared a link.
21 minutes ago near Dunedin, Otago
We are very pleased to announce the launch of our new Pacific Edge and Cxbladder websites. Along with a fresh new look, we have included some features and content that we hope will make visiting these sites a more interactive and informative experience. Also, stay tuned for the inclusion of USA specific content that will be added in the coming days!

We hope you enjoy the new sites and would love to hear what you think about them: info@pacificedgedx.com

Looks not too different from the previous website.

There's further detail on the http://www.cxbladder.com/ web site for those who may be new to PEB.

[Schrodinger]

spent a bit of time researching PEB. The management seem to thrive on rhectoric.
Company valuation of $160m seems well ahead of itself given that they have no sale volumes to speak of.
Looks like they have an interesting product and are going through a very good process to bring it to market worldwide.

Based on that I will buy a few and put the stock in my speculative portfolio ranked below DIL but above WDT.

I do believe their product is going to take longer to get to market than the rhectoric management are indicating

Thats OK.

You just turn up in the US and they sell themselves right?

[MAC]

spent a bit of time researching PEB. The management seem to thrive on rhectoric.
Company valuation of $160m seems well ahead of itself given that they have no sale volumes to speak of.
Looks like they have an interesting product and are going through a very good process to bring it to market worldwide.

Based on that I will buy a few and put the stock in my speculative portfolio ranked below DIL but above WDT.

I do believe their product is going to take longer to get to market than the rhectoric management are indicating

Welcome on board Snapiti.

If you should be looking for PEB's US marketing strategy you will find it here, do have a read, I hope you will find it a comprehensive sales plans.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/176737.pdf

Twenty months into their commercialisation plan PEB are right on schedule thus far. There is no doubt that a sure and steady ramp up curve in sales is required and PEB acknowledge that.

There doesn't appear to be any evidence that PEB will not continue to remain on track, it's pleasing to see PEB management meeting their obligations. But, I agree that schedule is always one of several risks that should be considered.

[karen1]

Good to see a management team that has a great strategic plan to push their products into the market place.

And right there, you have it!

[winner69]

Technically still in the downward linear regression channel ..... way it ended the week this may not be a long term hold after all

But as me oldate balance says TA does not (always) the signal the takeover and some punters get a little pissed if there is a takeover the day after they sell ... and if the price falls to 55 early next week I am out so does that mean a takeover late next week

[winner69]

I think you are right AndyLP, there may not be any significant new news in this announcement, but the timing of its release and it's focus suggests perhaps that the DHB's may now be at a tipping point of getting their order books out now that surely all those trials have been done and dusted to some level of satisfaction.

I abide by you superior knowledge here Mac. I have not really tried to understand the ins and outs of PEB except that one day itmay be a gold mine, so laways on the watchlist and a few short term trades along the way, each time hoping that this may be the long term hold to riches trade - one day if I beliwve the story eh

I also wonder if PEB listen to the impatience of some expecting the shareprice to actually go somewhere. Maybe they have evne noticed a downward linear regression channel and said heck we better do something

So an announcement on 10/9 (on with no real new news eh) to hype the market up a good ploy. A couple of high volume days and the share price goes from 50 cents to close to 60 cents in a few days before the interest drops away again. Interesting eh

Wonder when the next announcement is due?

[MAC]

I’m in PEB for the long term Winner and don’t really take too much notice of the short term technical’s aside from a passing interest, but with five years of potentially extraordinary growth ahead it seems more like a spring tensioning and coiling ever tighter to me, just awaiting the tickle of a trigger.

Reporting is a couple of months away and given that local progress is good and sales have kicked off in the US, it’s entirely unlikely that sales will have dropped.

[Intel]

PEB rumour mill.

A mate of mine said that a big NZ broker was going to be covering PEB soon (my guess is FNZC).. Unsure how he knew that but will be interesting to hear the analysts take on it! Also I don't know what his definition of soon is. 1 week, 3 months. who knows. At least they will be able to get in some good meetings with management etc. It should hopefully spark interest in the stock if the recommendation is buy / spec buy. I take it as a positive that they are even thinking about it. In PEB's current trading state it wont be generating a lot of comm so maybe they believe PEB will be a cash cow too and grow to be a decent sized company. I think there are only 2 analysts covering xero for a comparison (could be wrong about that though)...

[garfy]

"I also wonder if PEB listen to the impatience of some expecting the shareprice to actually go somewhere."

This company is actually more interested in ensuring their product is firstly 'best in field', and until the target users, in this case international urologists, are fully informed and convinced that this is 'best in field', shareholders will come second. Until real sales are achieved, the SP will vacillate as hopeful traders try to 'make a buck'. PEB is not a traders company (at present). This is a long-term hold, and those that choose to stay will reap rewards.

Disc: Holding - of course.

[karen1]

"I also wonder if PEB listen to the impatience of some expecting the shareprice to actually go somewhere."

This company is actually more interested in ensuring their product is firstly 'best in field', and until the target users, in this case international urologists, are fully informed and convinced that this is 'best in field', shareholders will come second. Until real sales are achieved, the SP will vacillate as hopeful traders try to 'make a buck'. PEB is not a traders company (at present). This is a long-term hold, and those that choose to stay will reap rewards.

Disc: Holding - of course.

Well said garfy!

[MAC]

PEB rumour mill.

A mate of mine said that a big NZ broker was going to be covering PEB soon (my guess is FNZC).. Unsure how he knew that but will be interesting to hear the analysts take on it! Also I don't know what his definition of soon is. 1 week, 3 months. who knows. At least they will be able to get in some good meetings with management etc. It should hopefully spark interest in the stock if the recommendation is buy / spec buy. I take it as a positive that they are even thinking about it. In PEB's current trading state it wont be generating a lot of comm so maybe they believe PEB will be a cash cow too and grow to be a decent sized company. I think there are only 2 analysts covering xero for a comparison (could be wrong about that though)...

When one starts the others may follow, it would be good for the market to have some independent valuations at this juncture after a healthy period of consolidation, may assist liquidity perhaps a little also.

[MAC]

Hi MAC, I don’t think the analysts would take into account too much, the potential of Pacific Edge; they will do mainly a fundamental assessment, and until there are sales figures, I wouldn’t expect too much at all.

But, I can wait, I’m still happy with PEB, what's another few MONTHS. :D

Well, one would anticipate that the brokers have generally better access to PEB and specific data.

Fundamental valuations are based on forward cashflows, and even a quick DCF, not hard to do, provides a very rosy outlook for PEB indeed and valuations well above present trading price.

Absolutely agree that after two years of good work by PEB thus far, technical folk and management, it should be satisfying for all to see that first step up in sales. Yes, patience for a couple of months will be rewarded.

[False Profit]

They might be at $0.53 but Direct Broking are asking $0.57 to buy in at. They obviously agree the price is too low at $0.53 :)

[Balance]

Down 4c (and 7%) to 53 this morning. Any thoughts as to how low we might go? Seems a lot of the more speculative stocks are taking a hit today.

Gee, someone had a brown stuff day this morning????

Why the panic?

[Balance]

No panic at all mate.

Just to put my post into context a bit - PEB was trading at 59 last week, it's been tracking down a tad since then, and today we went as low as 53c. I thought our TA experts might have had something informative to add about where the SP might be heading to from here.

Are you bored or something Balance?

Sigh- not you!

I was referring to whoever sold PEB down to 53c to get rid of a few shares.

[Xerof]

Down 4c (and 7%) to 53 this morning. Any thoughts as to how low we might go? Seems a lot of the more speculative stocks are taking a hit today.

As I said on 19th


It has a gap to fill down to 54. Filling it on very light volume. A few sellers above at near term past resistance, but nothing special (no sign of any LARGE SELLERS)

all T/A tea leaf requirements fulfilled now:t_up:

[benjitara]

The 'Calendar of Events' tab shows that they have a busy few months ahead with some key groups which should give some good marketing opportunities.

Hyperlink: Pacific Edge Limited (http://www.pacificedgedx.com/)

Yes Hancocks Looks like their progressing with getting the message out. but I do think the timing of these events suggests that USA sales data will not be as strong as some people would like come the next reporting season. They are a company in their infancy in USA and we should (not that the market will) allow them time to learn to crawl before learning how to breast the tape with the Bolt.

[benjitara]

Hi Benjitara; these various Urological Association meetings in Aust, NZ and the USA shown on the 'Calendar of Events' are supplementary to the main marketing push which includes the user programs, which are apparently very successful in the three market territories listed.

Yes. i'm aware that user programmes have been active in the USA fro some time in some instances. Obviously the market will react to sales no matter what the next reports says. i'm holding at the moment but wouldn't actually mind if sales were slow at the moment given i'd like to get some shares at a discount to the current sp. Here's hoping their doing well though, I'm confident they will be a success story.

[MAC]

Pretty spot on, me thinks mr markets is going to be disapointed with the slowness of sale traction, share's will dip 40-45cps good time to top up.

Market's anticipate what has been planned and what has been announced, and PEB are exactly on schedule with their US commercialisation plan and roll out,

We should thus anticipate sure and steady but very gradual roll out of sales as intended, for a three month duration within the HY14 reporting period, noting also that we know the sales staff are in training.

I would be very impressed if they achieve 200 hundred sales in that duration, but I know that is a very optimistic expectation.

[CJ]

Market's anticipate what has been planned and what has been announced, and PEB are exactly on schedule with their US commercialisation plan and roll out,

We should thus anticipate sure and steady but very gradual roll out of sales as intended, for a three month duration within the HY14 reporting period, noting also that we know the sales staff are in training.

I would be very impressed if they achieve 200 hundred sales in that duration, but I know that is a very optimistic expectation.Its less about the sales,more about the pipeline. 1 sale to a clinic that does 1000 tests a year is good as that will start to show up in future periods. So look for number of contracts or committed sales rather than sales (kind of like how Xero annualises its last months revenue as a better metric than the last 12m)

[MAC]

me thinks @ 56cps the market has priced in a better than planned results.
me thinks if they dont beat planned results the sp will fall

Unless you have some inside knowledge Snapiti, the rest of us are unaware of any sales guidance from PEB.

As I see it, the share price has been undervalued for several months, representing a healthy consolidation period, whilst the market awaits results (and confirmation) of first US sales being achieved.

Watch for a step up toward fundamental valuation at HY14 reporting.

[blakecb]

Unless you have some inside knowledge Snapiti, the rest of us are unaware of any sales guidance from PEB.

As I see it, the share price has been undervalued for several months, representing a healthy consolidation period, whilst the market awaits results (and confirmation) of first US sales being achieved.

Watch for a step up toward fundamental valuation at HY14 reporting.

Mac, they have provided sales guidance - I posted it on a previous post... from the 2011 capital raising.

When one takes a look at the bio-med companies on the ASX, as I have done recently, PEB starts to look expensive. For example, AHZ which has strong prospects and are also just ramping their global marketing strategy already have FY revenue of $7mil and are at a >$100mil market cap vs PEB's $200mil market cap on no renevue.

That said, with no competition on the NZX, PEB may still do very well....certainly I think the first hint of good sales with send this price soaring.

[MAC]

Mac, they have provided sales guidance - I posted it on a previous post... from the 2011 capital raising.

When one takes a look at the bio-med companies on the ASX, as I have done recently, PEB starts to look expensive. For example, AHZ which has strong prospects and are also just ramping their global marketing strategy already have FY revenue of $7mil and are at a >$100mil market cap vs PEB's $200mil market cap on no renevue.

That said, with no competition on the NZX, PEB may still do very well....certainly I think the first hint of good sales with send this price soaring.

Companies, when they provide guidance, it is annual.

The US revenue estimate of $100M within 5 years is a forward goal, although I agree it's a very good indication of outlook, I read as much into the fact that PEB are prepared to be publically confident as I do into the number itself.

One has to be cautious in comparing company market caps vs revenue as the rate of growth and outturn potential is often the reason for differences. PEB if they achieve their long term goals is on a very high rate of growth compared to many. Trust this assists Blakecb.

A quick DCF off that forward revenue stream may assist in getting a feel for the fundamental valuation of PEB, give it a go, let us know how you get on.

[blakecb]

Companies, when they provide guidance, it is annual.

The US revenue estimate of $100M within 5 years is a forward goal, although I agree it's a very good indication of outlook, I read as much into the fact that PEB are prepared to be publically confident as I do into the number itself.

One has to be cautious in comparing company market caps vs revenue as the rate of growth and outturn potential is often the reason for differences. PEB if they achieve their long term goals is on a very high rate of growth compared to many. Trust this assists Blakecb.

A quick DCF off that forward revenue stream may assist in getting a feel for the fundamental valuation of PEB, give it a go, let us know how you get on.

Hi Mac, what I'm getting at is that many of these bio-meds have that kind of potential forward revenue stream, some are even beginning to realise it, and do not have a market cap the size of PEB (AHZ even uses the >$100 mil revenue figure as well!). What I am pointing to is evidence within the sector of how these companies can be valued....we have to look to a different country for guidance, as we don't have bio-med companies in the same phase as PEB on the NZX. But perhaps that is PEB's strength as well, as NZX-only investors only have one choice in this regard, so pay a premium for that choice.

[okay]

Not sure if anyone's already mentioned this, but came across this last night so thought I would share the link for those interested.
It mentions PEB as one of the 9 leading NZ tech companies pitching to 150 Venture capitalists and investors in San Francisco at the
New Zealand Technology Investment Showcase http://www.nznewsuk.co.uk/business/?id=44415&story=Kiwis-doing-business-in-San-Francisco

[okay]

Hi Okay, thank you for posting that, I think the article is not so much about the venture capitalists but more:

Set amongst the backdrop of the America’s Cup, 15 of New Zealand’s leading health technology companies and organizations participated in a New Zealand Health Technologies Showcase to network and meet with health system leaders, investors, healthcare providers, and research organizations from the United States.



As per this:

Hyperlink: New Zealand Trade & Enterprise (http://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/news-and-media/nz-health-technology-companies-showcase-in-san-francisco/)

Hi Hancocks, always impressed by your PEB research by the way. That was a good link you put up. I had a look on the NZTE site and it appears to me PEB managed to get involved in two events there. The one you mentioned for health technology on the 17th, and the one in my link on the 12th as per below which says PEB was one of 9 selected to attend the below:
http://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/news-and-media/new-zealand-hosts-technology-investment-showcase/ being technology investment showcase

[nextbigthing]

Below is some of the research I've been doing on PEB. I realise this has been nicely covered by Sparky, Hancock and others on this thread, however another take on it can't hurt. Figures are rounded.




SALES;


2013 Annual report, page 19 (21 on the PDF), figure 3, expected number of patients presenting with Haematuria is 1 million in the USA. PEB state this will lead to 2 million potential tests (due to cancer patients needing reoccurring testing over the years). http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/types/bladder states there will be an estimated 72,570 new cases of bladder cancer in the US. That to me implies everybody who presents with Haematuria will get one test (=1 mil) and the 72570 confirmed cases would have to get 13.77 tests to make 2 million. Lets be pessimistic to play on the safe side and say each confirmed case get 5 tests (5 x 72570 = 362850) and some of the original 1 million who didn't test positive get a second check to make sure, say an extra 137150 tests, to bring the total annual tests to 1 million + 362850 + 137150 = 1.5 million. This same theory gives you 225000 tests for Spain and 64000 for NZ/OZ. Please note PEB state they already view THEIR figures as pessimistic!


What % of cases could PEB hope their tests are used for? Lets say 10% (that figure I will justify later on below).


What price are they getting for these tests? Refer to http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/269976/pacific-edge-100m-forecast


$NZ700 per US test
$NZ275 per OZ test
$NZ320 per NZ test
$NZ295 say for a NZ/OZ average
Spain unstated - say $NZ320 (conservative I think due to favourable exchange rate).


1 500 000 x 10% x $NZ700 = $105m for US
225 000 x 10% x $NZ320 = $7.2m for Spain
64 000 x 10% x $NZ295 = $1.9m for NZ/OZ


The OZ and Spain branches are run through partnerships, hence it isn't as straight-forward as this, however this will be
allowed for in the costs.


So total revenue once established with a 10% market share is $114 million NZD for one main general screener product




COSTS;


I find these a bit harder to estimate, however....


When asked about profit margins, Mr Darling said ''high gross margins'' were involved...
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/269976/pacific-edge-100m-forecast


Given that the hard work has been done developing, testing and perfecting the product, the production cost per test
would presumably be quite minimal. Given it's healthcare and therefore highly regulated, there would be reasonable
fees incurred in this regard. To get 10% of the market a large, well trained sales team is required, 20 people according to this article http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10893207 and I think I saw a more recent article claiming 30.
The labs have already been completed in the US and NZ and partnerships have been organised in Australia and Spain.


So say they did sell 179000 combined tests as per above and each cost $100 to produce. This makes $18 mil. If you allowed another $62 mil for all the other costs - everything inc partnership costs, then that leaves


$114m - $18m - $62m = $NZ34 million profit.


$34m / $114m means Mr Darling thinks 30% profit on revenue is high gross margins. Surely allowing $80m costs to sell
179000 tests for $114m revenue is realistic.




SO WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE US;


There's currently approx 280 million shares (2013 Annual report pg 3 (pg5 on the PDF)).


$34m / 280m shares = 12cps profit.


12cps / 0.08 return = 150cents, ie a shareprice of $1.50 - Once sales are fully established at 10% of market, growth is neutral and there is a regular 8% gross dividend (or potential for).




HOW DOES THIS COMPARE TO PEBS OWN ESTIMATES?


It's very similar. They are predicting revenue of $100m by 2018 as per this link
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pacifics-edges-100m-american-dream-dw-130949


Interstingly, in the above link they say there's 1.8m bladder cancer tests versus my 1.5m estimate, making my figures here conservative.


Current shareprice 58 cents. 150 / 58 cents x 100 is a 258% return. 258% / 5 years = 51% shareprice growth per year averaged. (21% compounding).



SO HOW DO YOU GET 10% OF THE MARKET TO BE THE NEXTBIGTHING PEB?


Keep in mind that for this to happen it obviously only requires one in ten possible cases to choose CXBladder,
PEBs main product. One in ten should be easily achievable given the following;
After researching their product, it is clear that it is far superior to the current methods. The current benchmark
is cystoscopy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bladder_cancer), which is undoubtedly unpleasant - see
http://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/cystoscopy-16692#hw210559 for proof. Given the option of that or peeing into a cup, I know what I'd choose! So that's a good start. But this is only going to be useful if it's actually accurate.
As per http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/GE1309/S00042/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand.htm
'In that large study at a specificity of 85% Cxbladderdetect saw 100 % of T1, 100% of T2, 100% of T3,
100% of Tis and 100% of upper urinary tract cancers. Cxbladderdetect also saw 97% of high grade tumours'.
So the accuracy is there.
What about competitors then? CXBladder is far more accurate. See this great table
http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/study-results/
What about costs to users? http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/272562/cxbladder-shown-be-90-accurate shows us that current costs in NZ are $2000 versus $320 for CXbladder. That's a no brainer.


So $62m cash to get 1 in 10 people to use a more accurate, cheaper test that is less invasive with no strings attached - 10% easy!


There's about 10 000 Urologists in the US according to PEBs 2013 AR, figure 3. 10 000 / 30 sales staff = 333 per sales member. Ie each salesperson could spend half a day, every six months, convincing Urologists to use a better product in a one on one personalized meeting.




SO WHAT ARE THE RISKS?


There's a few. They are well covered in the 2013 annual report. The biggest one that scares me is powerful pharmaceutical type companies lobbying with their vast resources to protect some interest they may have, blocking PEBs entry in to the market entirely.


Sales simply may not happen. PEB have to convince Urologists to use their product and they may stick with the status quo. The US government who will ultimately be paying for most of this may choose not to support PEB, again to 'protect US interests'.


They may run out of cash before this all takes off. This may not spell the end, but may mean another capital input
is required, effectively diluting the returns.


They may not hold on to their intelectual property for whatever reason. A US competitor with a superior product and
superior standing and contacts may be only a clinical trial behind...




WHAT ARE THE UPSIDES?


Excitingly, CXBladder is only one of PEBs developments. They have other cancer detection signature products in various stages of development. Any (likely) commercialization of these products is most likely extra profit.


The product may get more than 10% market share. It really seems like a great product, so a 50% market share is not
inconceivable. The profit in this case would be substanstailly greater.


The barriers to entry are quite large. It has taken PEB a while to get where it is, which should hopefully give a buffer for them from other up and comers.


They have created partnerships with Healthscope and Oryozn in Australia and Spain. Now the model is set up for these
partnerships then they can potentially expand truely globally!




OTHER POINTS OF INTEREST?


The US lab can handle 260000 tests PA (versus my prediction of 179000) - As per the 2013 AR.


Sales were approved to start on July 2013 - So it's potentially all go from now.


My understanding from reading this thread is a competitor (CertNDx) nearly beat them to it but went bankrupt. While this may sound scary, they went bankrupt because they did not clinically prove their product first. PEB have been very careful to cross the t's before taking this product to the market. Another competitor UroVysion states their product is only complimentary to current methods, not a replacement.




SO IS THIS THE NEXTBIGTHING?


IMHO PEB is a definite buy and as shown above, it has great potential. However I am by no means suggesting anybody else should buy. It is a risky stock given they are yet to show any real sales. This is purely my opinion - do your own research and don't blame me if it turns to custard!




WHEN TO GET IN?


I know very little of the dark art of charting. However it's not hard to look at a longer term chart and see the overall PAST trend has been very slightly down over a long period. To a non chartist such as myself, this would suggest it may continue to do so until closer to the next sales announcement, when people jump in as a gamble and it trends up again. However judging by the chart it would only fall a couple of cents before then. What's a couple of cents when it could be heading to $1.50? so any time from now is probably good if you're patient I guess. As I say, I'm not a chartist.




I hope this is of use to someone anyway.






DISCLAIMER; I do not currently hold PEB, however I'm looking to buy based on this unless someone points out something serious I have missed. If so, please let me know!


Cheers,


NextBigThing

[winner69]

Wow nextbigthing, that's an impressive post but surely worth heaps more than $1.50 on that story

Also look at a long term chart - since 2008 the trend is UP

As you say if worth heaps what's a few cents now.

I take it you a decent sized holding already?

[winner69]

Sorry mate just read your disclaimer - you don't hold

What's holding you back?

[Dentie]

Thanks for your in depth post NBT. Gives me a very good understanding of both sides of the story. Would seem very cruel for PEB to have done their homework and gone through all those yankee "hoops" (incl registration and new laboratory etc) only to have some big pocketed pharma company use their influence to deny CX Bladder getting to their own patients. Mind you, when it comes to "THE MONEY", these people over there have proven many times what they are prepared to do to get the stuff. One only has to look at what happened over the past few days in San Francisco.

All that said, I'm holding a decent amount of PEB and I am a solid believer in what they are doing and I'm patient.

Thanks again for your post NBT - appreciated!

[Minerbarejet]

Good post NBT. Your whole argument is based on " presenting with haematuria". May I suggest that there may be a lot of potential customers in annual checkups amongst the populations mainly for "peace of mind" and to eliminate bladder cancer from the list of suspects amongst those suffering something else in that region of the body.

[nextbigthing]

Thanks people.

I forgot to mention the dreaded 'unrealised potential' takeover which we know is a risk also!

Winner - Re the decline, I used a 6 month timeframe which shows a very slow decline in shareprice. Like I say it might mean 2 cents. What's holding me back you ask? I'm just waiting to see if someone points out something I've missed, otherwise I'm in.

Minerbarejet - Completely agree. I've deliberately been conservative/pessimistic so things like you mention can only add to the upside.

Hancocks - The current 'standard' seems to be a cytology / nmp22 combo, which I believe CXBladder is superior to. My concern re the 'Pharmaceutical type' companies is that perhaps they supply the cytology equipment, any drugs used in the process, the cleaning fluids, have shares in nmp22 etc. Thus they have an interest that is lucrative and they're willing to spend money to protect. Maybe I've been talking to too many crazies or watched too many movies but I hope you see the point I'm trying to make. I just like to consider all possiblities.

Is anybody out there dark on this stock and if so, why?

Cheers,

NBT

[CJ]

Thanks NBT - given how success the product appears to be, I would expect them to get larger market share than you predict. The question for me is how long can they remain in that superior position. You describe the barriers to entry as high - given the money the big phamaco's in the US have, I would just change that to "long", given the time it takes to develop, test, certify, then roll out.

[forest]

[QUOTE=nextbigthing;429754]Thanks people.

I forgot to mention the dreaded 'unrealised potential' takeover which we know is a risk also!

Winner - Re the decline, I used a 6 month timeframe which shows a very slow decline in shareprice. Like I say it might mean 2 cents. What's holding me back you ask? I'm just waiting to see if someone points out something I've missed, otherwise I'm in.

NBT if you and others join us, PEB share holders, and drive the share price up then we can reduce the chance of an take over before the potential is realised. This 'unrealised potential' takeover might be the only risk we face. :)

Discloser; I have done my bit to reduce the chance of a takeover.

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks NBT - given how success the product appears to be, I would expect them to get larger market share than you predict. The question for me is how long can they remain in that superior position. You describe the barriers to entry as high - given the money the big phamaco's in the US have, I would just change that to "long", given the time it takes to develop, test, certify, then roll out.
If it is as we have been led to believe that there is 100% success rate or very close to it and this becomes proven why would anyone bother to develop test certify and rollout a competitor. The only thing would be providing a choice of product which smacks of the supermarket Would not that money be better spent finding some other area that requires attention. 100% is 100%.

[MAC]

Over the last few weeks we’ve had some posts providing some novel valuation methods for PEB.

Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.

Below are some links which I’ve found useful for biotechnology analysis and valuation over the last 12 months, happy to share with others.

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_CA/ca/industries/tmt/b6115312b90fb110VgnVCM100000ba42f00aRCRD.htm

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/biotechvaluation.asp

http://www.appraisers.org/Libraries/2012_BV_Conference/Economou_Life_Science.sflb.ashx

[Minerbarejet]

I wonder if the fact that there are (or were) 4 bladder cancer urine tests in the American market means the big pharmas haven't successfully lobbied against any service provider or product thus far. And, is there a very high risk of a big pharma losing major credibility if they tried? I think so.Perhaps we are looking at an ethical issue with this. Denying access to a superior product in healthcare is not a good look.

[nextbigthing]

I wonder if the fact that there are (or were) 4 bladder cancer urine tests in the American market means the big pharmas haven't successfully lobbied against any service provider or product thus far. And, is there a very high risk of a big pharma losing major credibility if they tried? I think so.

Perhaps the fact there are or were 4 competitors that haven't cracked it means they have been very successful in their lobbying? Scary thought :mellow:

NBT

[Minerbarejet]

probably why it is all done by PEDUSA

[GR8DAY]

whats is pedusa


pacific edge diagnostics (usa) ???

[benjitara]

[QUOTE=snapiti;429804
Looks like cxbladder might be stuck between a rock and a hard place,for now, as GP's can only recommend patience to specialist and if it is in the specialist best interest to keep status quo they probably will.
.[/QUOTE]

If a competitive advantage is there and well publicised to the general public and those patience whose well being depends on accurate treatment then the patient will impose their own pressure upon GP'S to use whatever will give them the best chance. What's stopping a specialist from doing preliminary tests with cxbladder and then more evasive tests afterwards for a "second opinion" If approached right it actually gives specialists another revenue stream.

[Dej]

I understand that due to the urologist being able to do the more invasive work(which has been done the same way for 40 years) and pocketing more money to do so(this includes ongoing screening) it has been hard for any new product to break into the market.
For this reason I believe there will be a slow uptake of the product.

PEB are doing a magnificent job of bringing their results to the market and have a fantastic marketing strategy and I believe it is only amatter of time before urologist habits are forced to change.
If I had anything to do with it I would be pitching my product to the health insurance sector as they are the one's that will force the urologist to use the product if it is effective and cheaper.
Does anyone know if this is being done

I bought this up months ago and cannot remember the answer some members gave, so refresher for us both guys!! :t_up:

[Minerbarejet]

I am sure it has been taken into consideration along with all the other facets of their marketing program.
Its all about awareness and once it gets out to the patients themselves then urologists will have an uphill battle to convince them that their invasive, more expensive and not necessarily as accurate method is the way to go.
Hancocks was on the right track with his getting the word to Inspire about cxbladder.
Agree it will be tough to get some of the old diehards to change - that equates to the 10% uptake overall which will probably come from clued up, progressive younger medical professionals who will pick this ball up and run with it until it is superceded by something else- perhaps produced by PEB

[Xerof]

From PEB sales pathway update June 13

[Minerbarejet]

If you have a spare couple of days perhaps you should read this thread started by Hancocks. It has priceless information on it that has been covered over and over and in depth and is one of the most commented on and thorough pieces of guidance to assist you in making your mind up. If you remain unconvinced after all that then that is your choice. If you read it all I think you will find the pressure on your finger will be unbearable.:)

[robbo24]

I understand that due to the urologist being able to do the more invasive work(which has been done the same way for 40 years) and pocketing more money to do so(this includes ongoing screening) it has

The organisations (these include insurance companies) that PEB markets to pay the urologist's bill.

If they say carry out a PEB test then a PEB test will be carried out otherwise no $$$.

I'm sure urologists are neither altruists or idiots...

[Xerof]

Thanks xerof your post is another example of why I am on sharetrader.
Please understand I am a bit cynical of listed companies with great products and no sale's as alot of companies lack management skill's to know how to turn a great product into a great business and I am new to following PEB.

So thanks for your answer which just adds more wieght to my buy more now finger.


It may have been said before, but (and despite not being in the same product space), this reminds me very much of the DIL story in its earlier days.

I'm suffering terribly from deja vu, again and again :p

[Minerbarejet]

Words getting out! Went for an overall checkup this a.m. and the doctor asked me for a urine sample. I asked him " is this a cxbladder test? He said no , but I know what you are talking about.":)

[Dentie]

Words getting out! Went for an overall checkup this a.m. and the doctor asked me for a urine sample. I asked him " is this a cxbladder test? He said no , but I know what you are talking about.":)

Good point Miner. I'm going next week and it also involves the urine test so I'll be sure to ask as well. If not, then I'll educate her!!

[MAC]

Thanks for that link Hancock's.

I wasn't aware PEB were a registered Medicare provider, presumably this is the US Medicare rather than the Australian Medicare, or perhaps it generically refers to both ?

It seems clear that the preferred settlement is directly with the insurers, it would be interesting to know how any preferential supplier approaches to the insurers are coming along a few months along now.

"Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder"

https://www.medicare.gov/

http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/dhs/medicare

[MAC]

Good foresight and management, what else can you say, the risk is falling away well for PEB, and crumbs, I like this bit;

"The Dunedin laboratory also has the capacity to cope with any unexpected surge in the demand for Cxbladder tests beyond Hershey's capability of processing up to its design capacity of approximately 4,000 tests per week."

[MAC]

No offense, but in reality this is an extremely minor event vs. the very real risks shareholders in PEB face. The risks all come down to making sales right? This is a good thing for PEB, don't get me wrong, but I don't think it reduces the risk of investing in PEB in any meaningful way.

Risk falls away incrementally, let's have a look at the last six months or so;

Clinical trials successfully completed, CLIA regulatory approvals successfully achieved, first DHB customer signed up, DHB user programmes successfully completed, US laboratory built on budget and schedule, first US sales achieved, Medicare registration, and now the availability of a backup CLIA laboratory.

That's an enormous amount of de-risking in a very short timeframe, and PEB remain on schedule against their commercialisation plan.

Looking forward to that HY14 report next month.

[MAC]

What's the dollar value of those US sales again?

All the things you list have been good steps made by PEB, but at the end of the day the one true risk is whether they can convert it all into BIG$$.

Yes I agree, that’s the remaining risk. There is though no reason to anticipate that PEB will not continue their steady progress against their commercialisation plan, they have been on schedule for two years thus far.

My expectation for the 3 month US sales period within HY14 is for a humble 200 sales. This would be an exceptional result while sales staff are in training and would bode well for the commencement of the ramp up in the following year.

[MAC]

Yeah I hope so.

Other than the 5 year plan, does PEB give any shorter term guidance on sales guidance?

To my disappointment, not that I know of, they have in the media stated that they do have a sales target, but have not released it in the public domain.

[False Profit]

The markets seem to like this news. Very encouraging bounce so far. Hands up for a divi in the next couple of years....

[Dentie]

What's the dollar value of those US sales again?

All the things you list have been good steps made by PEB, but at the end of the day the one true risk is whether they can convert it all into BIG$$.

Hi Turmeric - definitely no offence to you either mate BUT...

Your comments around PEB don't seem consistent with your comments around XRO. At the risk of flogging a dead horse ...You seem to be very bullish on XRO by buying and selling all the way up to $18.00+ when there is still no sign of any profit on the horizon - despite the startling increases in customer numbers, revenues AND trading losses etc.

With PEB on the other hand your comments appear to be very cautious and defensive - despite them performing in line with what they say they are going to do and within the time frames they have set for themselves. I think investors in PEB have every right to feel bullish and should also be very confident of their patience paying a nice reward over the next little while. I also think PEB will reach profitability well before XRO does.

As an aside, I was staggered when the Moose galloped away from PEB to invest in SNK.

[MAC]

The bounce has been on next to no volume! As for forecasts, the 5-year plan has been broken out yearly. One would have thought that these were their forecasts?

Well kind of, I think you might find that the 2011 capital raising information provided only 'possible return vs possible levels of market share', so it wasn't stated as yearly guidance, although if we were to adopt it as a curve it would seem like a close trend toward the US sales goal of $100M in five years, but perhaps a little too steep at the front end I think.

But in acknowledging that, I would absolutely agree that a simple DCF on a curve up to that $100M goal results in PEB looking very undervalued at present, FA is everything.

[False Profit]

This'll make you laugh...I got into SNK when they were at 14C. Now that's comedy...or stupidity.

[Dentie]

This'll make you laugh...I got into SNK when they were at 14C. Now that's comedy...or stupidity.

Only stupidity if you have invested 100% of your capital here and are still trying to divest now FP. Otherwise may not be if you have thrown them into a bottom drawer......miracles do happen!

[Dentie]

All good Dentie,

I think I've been pretty consistent. I own both XRO and PEB and am happy with both investments. The simple difference I see between the two is XRO has a track record of sales and PEB does not. Therefore I see the risks in PEB to be far greater than XRO at this point in time (that may well change though.....)

I didn't mean to sound negative/defensive on PEB today, but "cautious" yes. The caution I was trying to warn on in my earlier post, is that todays announcement really doesn't change anything about PEB in my mind (in terms of the real risks involved in the investment; sales) but I felt like MAC was implying the risks have diminished significantly. That was all really - probably didn't come off well I guess.

My bullish tone on XRO probably comes down to several factors (1) I got in around $1, (2) the majority on this forum have said all along XRO was overvalued, would crash and burn, is a bubble...blah blah blah, (all the way from $3 or so - now @ $19ish ) and I feel I have been one of the few people to try and point out that people might be missing the big picture and (3) I have felt for quite a while now XRO is potentially the most exciting NZ company going around! In saying that, I have always acknowledged XRO is risky, I have not once suggested others should buy, but merely disagreed with those who adamantly say it is a poor investment. (My bullish tone on XRO therefore is probably more excitement than anything and also the fact that I am one of the few people consistently on the thread reminding people they called XRO a flop when it was at $3 ;) )

I hope both PEB and XRO do well but I am more cautious on PEB until they demonstrate the ability to sell in the US.

SNK? Yes well that has been a learning curve for many including me. I'm just glad I got out at 14c+

No worries Turmeric - always enjoy (& learn from) your posts.

[False Profit]

Only stupidity if you have invested 100% of your capital here and are still trying to divest now FP. Otherwise may not be if you have thrown them into a bottom drawer......miracles do happen!

Heavens no!! I've not gone mad on my investment with SNK. Can't say the same for Dil or PEB, though :t_up:.
I'm expecting great things from these and will keep the XRO-tinted glasses on until one or the other reaches $10...:cool:

[lastmoa]

All good Dentie,

I think I've been pretty consistent. I own both XRO and PEB and am happy with both investments. The simple difference I see between the two is XRO has a track record of sales and PEB does not. Therefore I see the risks in PEB to be far greater than XRO at this point in time (that may well change though.....)

I didn't mean to sound negative/defensive on PEB today, but "cautious" yes. The caution I was trying to warn on in my earlier post, is that todays announcement really doesn't change anything about PEB in my mind (in terms of the real risks involved in the investment; sales) but I felt like MAC was implying the risks have diminished significantly. That was all really - probably didn't come off well I guess.

My bullish tone on XRO probably comes down to several factors (1) I got in around $1, (2) the majority on this forum have said all along XRO was overvalued, would crash and burn, is a bubble...blah blah blah, (all the way from $3 or so - now @ $19ish ) and I feel I have been one of the few people to try and point out that people might be missing the big picture and (3) I have felt for quite a while now XRO is potentially the most exciting NZ company going around! In saying that, I have always acknowledged XRO is risky, I have not once suggested others should buy, but merely disagreed with those who adamantly say it is a poor investment. (My bullish tone on XRO therefore is probably more excitement than anything and also the fact that I am one of the few people consistently on the thread reminding people they called XRO a flop when it was at $3 ;) )

I hope both PEB and XRO do well but I am more cautious on PEB until they demonstrate the ability to sell in the US.

SNK? Yes well that has been a learning curve for many including me. I'm just glad I got out at 14c+

Well said, Tumeric, Totally agree and are in same position of being a holder for both.

[Intel]

Does anyone have a link to the full Journal of Urology reserch piece submitted by PEB in 2012?

Im having trouble finding the entire document (without forking out cash for it)

[robbo24]

AND it's commercially available right now - let's go US sales team!!

[Minerbarejet]

Meanwhile, over at CDY...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131003/pdf/42jsvp3110zb33.pdf

Amazing what the C-Word can do to a stocks price!
Up and away today on good news - this is the cherry on top for PEB holders
DYOR
Disc: Long term holding

[Intel]

Hey Hancocks,

Thanks for the info but I am looking for the entire reseacrh piece. I want to see the statistical analysis in detail, methods etc. The link tells me I have to pay $30 for the luxury of reading it, so im trying to avoid that.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1464-410X.2010.10026.x/pdf

I have found this paper completed in 2009 by the Anderson research center, # 1 rated cancer facility in America. Want to try and backsolve Cx bladders cost effectiveness in detecting BC by using the research piece attached.

Cancer rankings
http://health.usnews.com/best-hospitals/rankings/cancer

Interestingly, Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania (http://health.usnews.com/best-hospitals/area/pa/hospital-of-the-university-of-pennsylvania-6231900) is number 13...


Will update all with my findings. Even more interesting would be to see Mid Centrals cost enefit analysis to use CX bladder. Could probably ask them and if they say No, use the OIA to get the info... Thoughts anyway

[Intel]

Sorry, should have been clearer, I am after PEB's "A Multigene Urine Test for the Detection and Stratification of Bladder Cancer in Patients Presenting with Hematuria". The research piece they submitted to the Journal of Urology

[CJ]

Sorry, should have been clearer, I am after PEB's "A Multigene Urine Test for the Detection and Stratification of Bladder Cancer in Patients Presenting with Hematuria". The research piece they submitted to the Journal of UrologyEmail PEB - they should have a copy they can provide.

[Dentie]

Yet more evidence of how good this product is ...

http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2013/october-2013/03/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand.aspx (http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2013/october-2013/03/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand.aspx)

But I also wonder why all these "user programme studies" are necessary. Seems to me to be an excellent product with excellent results proven over clinical trial after clinical trial and now user programme after user programme. Why do they have to keep trying to prove how good cxbladder is? There should be enough there now for the medical stakeholders and naysayers alike to have the confidence to just get this thing out to the market as widespread as possible - especially now that the Dunedin laboratory is licensed to take any overflow.

I just get the feeling they are being made to "rehearse" the thing over and over .... perhaps the medical profession are being too cautious or too nervous ...just in case it is a success!!

[Minerbarejet]

Yet more evidence of how good this product is ...

http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2013/october-2013/03/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand.aspx (http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2013/october-2013/03/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand.aspx)

But I also wonder why all these "user programme studies" are necessary. Seems to me to be an excellent product with excellent results proven over clinical trial after clinical trial and now user programme after user programme. Why do they have to keep trying to prove how good cxbladder is? There should be enough there now for the medical stakeholders and naysayers alike to have the confidence to just get this thing out to the market as widespread as possible - especially now that the Dunedin laboratory is licensed to take any overflow.

I just get the feeling they are being made to "rehearse" the thing over and over .... perhaps the medical profession are being too cautious or too nervous ...just in case it is a success!!
In a word: Malpractice

[Toasty]

Yet more evidence of how good this product is ...

http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2013/october-2013/03/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand.aspx (http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2013/october-2013/03/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand.aspx)

But I also wonder why all these "user programme studies" are necessary. Seems to me to be an excellent product with excellent results proven over clinical trial after clinical trial and now user programme after user programme. Why do they have to keep trying to prove how good cxbladder is? There should be enough there now for the medical stakeholders and naysayers alike to have the confidence to just get this thing out to the market as widespread as possible - especially now that the Dunedin laboratory is licensed to take any overflow.

I just get the feeling they are being made to "rehearse" the thing over and over .... perhaps the medical profession are being too cautious or too nervous ...just in case it is a success!!

Maybe its like "I am Legend"? They are just waiting to make sure that Zombieism is kept to a minimum. I haven't seen any research papers on this yet. Being kept quiet perhaps?

[Minerbarejet]

To be published in March 2014

[MAC]

Yet more evidence of how good this product is ...

http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2013/october-2013/03/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand.aspx (http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/un-doctored/2013/october-2013/03/cxbladder-excels-in-new-zealand.aspx)

But I also wonder why all these "user programme studies" are necessary. Seems to me to be an excellent product with excellent results proven over clinical trial after clinical trial and now user programme after user programme. Why do they have to keep trying to prove how good cxbladder is? There should be enough there now for the medical stakeholders and naysayers alike to have the confidence to just get this thing out to the market as widespread as possible - especially now that the Dunedin laboratory is licensed to take any overflow.

I just get the feeling they are being made to "rehearse" the thing over and over .... perhaps the medical profession are being too cautious or too nervous ...just in case it is a success!!

More like 'ground hog day' than 'I am legend' I reckon;

It must seem like deja vu to the good folk in the PEB lab's each time, but I just can't help but see it as a cleaver and cognisant marketing strategy, each health organisation needs to be convinced of a relatively new product, this may just be a more hands on and expedient process than having a salesman bug them off and on.

[Minerbarejet]

More like 'ground hog day' than 'I am legend' I reckon;

It must seem like deja vu to the good folk in the PEB lab's each time, but I just can't help but see it as a cleaver and cognisant marketing strategy, each health organisation needs to be convinced of a relatively new product, this may just be a more hands on and expedient process than having a salesman bug them off and on.
And for every health organisation convinced there will be a lot of share buyers take it up as well- waiting for the tipping point where institutions can no longer hold out. A good marketing strategy by the looks but what would I know.

[skid]

There are large corporations that can short cut the rules(think Monsanto,and all the pharma cos)
I suppose they could also put stumbling blocks in the way of a competitors product.
The American market is soooo complicated.

[skid]

Dont get me wrong.-Im not slamming the product.
I disagree with you that the large corporations use stand over tactics(or lobby the Gov. in their favor)but if this is bypassed-thats great.
As to whether it will rock their world or be a slow steady growth is yet to be seen.
So far since its introduction its been around 60+ and mid 50s (not claiming the market makes complete sense)
I like the product and would like to buy in on a dip(either in the co,or the market)
You obviously know the product inside and out-whether it rocks or not -Time will tell.
I hope it does(after a dip for me,thanx)
PS-Dont underestimate those large Multinational Corp. and what they can do.
If you have any doubt have a look at this documentary--you can skip to the part about monsanto in the secound part if you dont want to watch the whole thing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y888wVY5hzw

[MAC]

Dont get me wrong.-Im not slamming the product.
I disagree with you that the large corporations use stand over tactics(or lobby the Gov. in their favor)but if this is bypassed-thats great.
As to whether it will rock their world or be a slow steady growth is yet to be seen.
So far since its introduction its been around 60+ and mid 50s (not claiming the market makes complete sense)
I like the product and would like to buy in on a dip(either in the co,or the market)
You obviously know the product inside and out-whether it rocks or not -Time will tell.
I hope it does(after a dip for me,thanx)
PS-Dont underestimate those large Multinational Corp. and what they can do.
If you have any doubt have a look at this documentary--you can skip to the part about monsanto in the secound part if you dont want to watch the whole thing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y888wVY5hzw

It is common for biotech stocks to consolidate between successfully completing clinical trials and the start of monetising the technology. PEB has substantially de-risked over the last year, thus the SP will not continue to remain as undervalued as it is for long. The catalyst I believe will be reporting of first US sales next month, possibly sooner if a contract announcement comes along.

The SP is 32% discounted off its March High’s ($0.79), may I suggest that the dip you are waiting for is right here and now, probably last month to be picky and precise.

Try some recognised FA to gain a feel for upside potential, the US $100M goal revenue stream, provides me with a FY14 valuation of $1.25 and a FY16 valuation of $5.

Even if PEB achieve only half the sales they expect, this will still be one of the NZX stellar success stories of the next few years.

[skid]

Another thing to consider is that now that Obamacare has happened(if in fact it does not get postponed by the republicans) there will be alot of co.s lobbying hard for their products to get the nod.These gov. insurance schemes go for bulk deals on the best product for them.
If peb get the nod-then things would definitely ROCK --If some other co.with an inferior product does a better job at lobbying then the opposite would occur.
This could be a major force(completely outside of the product itself)
Who owns the inferior products--Are they big co.s with clout that could push through their bladder test with a bunch of their other products in a bulk deal? Will obama care even happen? So many questions in a complicated world.

[MAC]

Hancock’s, thank you for this analysis, it is difficult for most of us who are not technically proficient in this area to achieve a précis like this, most appreciated.


There have been a few posts about the repetitious mention of User Programs and some posts of a threat by the so-called Big Pharma Mafiosi.

There are actually a few good reasons why the ‘User Programs’ are an excellent way of marketing your product. The most important is that the Urologists and Clinicians over the years have been subject to a myriad of articles about procedures, tests, tools and instruments, software, business aids and charts that companies have been flogging off, the range is staggering and they may now be a sceptical about claims made.

If the Urologists and Clinicians could just browse the aisles of Wee Wees ‘R’ US, then they may be able to handle the product and read the box. This is not the case; and, there is also the issue Pacific Edge identified of Customer Pre-Purchase Dissonance.

NOW, the test kits themselves do not cost a lot to produce ~$US20 and the Urologists use of the kits means that their process will change to a certain extent, so the user program allows the vendor to market the whole kit and caboodle, which is obviously well received due to the number of programs that have been signed up. So, it is not just a matter of snake oil salesmen trying to hock off grandpas secret remedy.

The companies receiving the product and process are the beneficiaries of a financial and intellectual commitment from Pacific Edge, and the evidence of the success of the user programs means that the product and changes to their process are well received and they end up signing supply contracts with Pacific Edge Diagnostics. This process also bypasses Big Pharma and the likelihood that there are any stand over tactics (if this is really an issue, I do not believe it happens) are mitigated.

Cxbladder is the product that is now being marketed that far exceeds anything that has been marketed previously in the way of accuracy (specificity and sensitivity) that can replace Cytology and be used to limit the number of Cystoscopies.

We know that CertNDx bladder test was removed from market because it only indicated a possible issue and was a poor test. Cytology and NMP22 were good tests and were compared to Cxbladder in the clinical trials.

Hyperlink: Cxbladder Clinical trial Results (http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/cxbladder-clinical-study/)

Here is a summary of the other tests and their limitations (if any) available to urologist, none come close to Cxbladder for accuracy, utilisation and ease of use, so the future is very promising and the User Programs are a very very smart way to market.


The BTA (bladder tumour antigen) stat® test, (Polymedco Inc., Cortlandt Manor, NY) is a qualitative, point-of-care test with an immediate result that identifies a human complement factor H-related protein that was shown to be produced by several human bladder cell lines but not by other epithelial cell lines.



The BTA stat® test is an in vitro immunoassay intended for the qualitative detection of bladder tumour-associated antigen in the urine of persons diagnosed with bladder cancer. The BTA TRAK® test (Polymedco Inc., Cortlandt Manor, NY) provides a quantitative determination of the same protein. This test requires trained personnel and a reference laboratory. Both tests have sensitivities comparable to that of cytology for high-grade tumours and better than cytology for low-grade tumours.



Nuclear matrix protein 22 (NMP-22) is a protein associated with the nuclear mitotic apparatus. It is thought that this protein is released from the nuclei of tumor cells during apoptosis. Normally, only very low levels of NMP-22 can be detected in the urine, and elevated levels may be associated with bladder cancer. NMP-22 may be detected in the urine using an immunoassay.



Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) DNA probe technology has also been used to detect chromosomal abnormalities in voided urine to assist not only in bladder cancer surveillance but also in the initial identification of bladder cancer. FISH DNA probe technology is a technique to visualize nucleic acid sequences within cells by creating short sequences of fluorescently labeled, single-strand DNA, called probes, which match target sequences. The probes bind to complementary strands of DNA, allowing for identification of the location of the chromosomes targeted. UroVysion® (Vysis Inc., Downers Grove, IL) is a commercially available FISH test.



The ImmunoCyt™ test (DiagnoCure Inc., Quebec) uses fluorescence immunohistochemistry with antibodies to a mucin glycoprotein and a carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). These antigens are found on bladder tumor cells. The test is used for monitoring bladder cancer in conjunction with cytology and cystoscopy.



In addition to the FDA-cleared tests, Predictive Biosciences (Lexington, MA) is marketing a urine-based test, called CertNDx TM, to assess Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor 3 (FGFR3) mutations. The test is intended to be used in combination with cytology for identifying patients with haematuria at risk of bladder cancer. It is being offered through Predictive Bioscience’s network of Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendment (CLIA) laboratories. FGFR3 mutations may be associated with lower-grade bladder tumours that have a good prognosis. (now removed from market)


So as you can see we have an exciting product that will rock the urologists and clinicians world in my humble opinion.

[skid]

Thanx for the insights Mac--I hadnt seen it when I put my last post so it had no bearing on why I put it--still food for thought

[skid]

It is common for biotech stocks to consolidate between successfully completing clinical trials and the start of monetising the technology. PEB has substantially de-risked over the last year, thus the SP will not continue to remain as undervalued as it is for long. The catalyst I believe will be reporting of first US sales next month, possibly sooner if a contract announcement comes along.

The SP is 32% discounted off its March High’s ($0.79), may I suggest that the dip you are waiting for is right here and now, probably last month to be picky and precise.

Try some recognised FA to gain a feel for upside potential, the US $100M goal revenue stream, provides me with a FY14 valuation of $1.25 and a FY16 valuation of $5.

Even if PEB achieve only half the sales they expect, this will still be one of the NZX stellar success stories of the next few years.

When, next month are the US sales figures due?
I guess ,like any company it will depend on whether they are impressive .
I wont make any decisions until this potentially market affecting US Govt. situation gets worked out though.
Thanks for all the info. from both of you Cheers

[MAC]

When, next month are the US sales figures due?
I guess ,like any company it will depend on whether they are impressive .
I wont make any decisions until this potentially market affecting US Govt. situation gets worked out though.
Thanks for all the info. from both of you Cheers

I don’t think the HY reporting date has been announced, but it has been the last week in November over the last couple of years.

Skid, with some caution we can't expect more sales in HY14 than can have possibly been achieved. PEB have a commercialisation plan and are on schedule against it.

US sales commenced on 1st July providing only a 3 month contribution within the reporting period. With the risk of repeating the discussion earlier in the thread, the sales staff are in training at this time. Based on growth in NZ I speculate that 200 US sales would be a good result.

Having said that revenues should be up on the FY13 result by a healthy percentage, maybe even double digit growth.

I'll be a lot more interested in reported progress in terms of approaches to health organisations and numerical sales guidance toward FY14. Sales ramp up in earnest should be in the second half.

[winner69]

Still trending down

Announcement this week did nothing for share price - that must have been a disappointment for them

Probably have to wait another week or two before the next announcement - need something to give the share price a boost - seems to be their modus operandi lately

Waiting for another trade here

[MAC]

Medicare registration?

http://www.cxbladder.com/for-healthcare-professionals/billing-policy/

"Pacific Edge is a Medicare provider. Pacific Edge will accept patients with Medicare coverage, and these patients will have no financial responsibility for Cxbladder"

[skid]

I don’t think the HY reporting date has been announced, but it has been the last week in November over the last couple of years.

Skid, with some caution we can't expect more sales in HY14 than can have possibly been achieved. PEB have a commercialisation plan and are on schedule against it.

US sales commenced on 1st July providing only a 3 month contribution within the reporting period. With the risk of repeating the discussion earlier in the thread, the sales staff are in training at this time. Based on growth in NZ I speculate that 200 US sales would be a good result.

Having said that revenues should be up on the FY13 result by a healthy percentage, maybe even double digit growth.

I'll be a lot more interested in reported progress in terms of approaches to health organisations and numerical sales guidance toward FY14. Sales ramp up in earnest should be in the second half.

So your speculating 200US sales will be the catalist for the share price jump--just trying to get clear idea here.
If its the next quarter when things really ramp up then wouldnt that be more the time things take off?

[skid]

[QUOTE=Hancocks;431182]Hi Skid, very interesting documentary, thanks for the link. Sadly it is an indictment on mankind as a whole. Perhaps we think that mankind is civilised, when in actual fact we have just learned to pretend to suppress our selfish greedy ways and don’t perform certain body functions in front of others. We are still just hunter gatherers, but I suppose we have at least added a few so called niceties to our foraging. Pierce the skin of mankind and there is still a naked roaring ape inside; but, he may still need diagnosis or monitoring for bladder cancer.

:D[/QUOTE

Absolutely,and I say again,I also believe its a good product--but my point was that all those people also needed to be told their kids were drinking milk that was at risk of possibly causing them harm.
It was simply to not underestimate big powerful corporations.--But I realize its a very hard thing to factor in to an investment decision,other than to be aware there are things that can derail a good product .
Its just in response to some of the ''its all up from here-massively''comments.
Just trying to keep my feet on the ground(and i suppose play devil advocate)
Has anyone done any research on what changes Obama care will have on the health system?
Would PEB comment on that sort of thing?
Is it possible that it is going to come down to who is best at negotiating a contract with this massive gov insurance provider?
Im just bringing this all up because some of you are particularly good at researching and information gathering on this thread.

[MAC]

So your speculating 200US sales will be the catalist for the share price jump--just trying to get clear idea here.
If its the next quarter when things really ramp up then wouldnt that be more the time things take off?

We each need to do our own research, although I’d be the first to say that PEB don’t help us by not providing much in the way of guidance.

Post capital raising, growth stocks can remain undervalued for long periods of time proportionally reflecting the magnitude of risk associated with the stock. As risk gradually falls away the SP gradually approaches fundamental valuation.

My view is that PEB has de-risked substantially over the last 12 months, yet the SP has not yet stepped up toward fundamental (DCF) valuation. This may be due to no analysts yet covering the stock, traders keeping the stock range bound, and the market simply just awaiting the formal announcement that US sales have commenced.

Revenues at HY13 were $325k, since then PEB have entered the US market and gained further confidence in the local market with CLIA approvals, user studies being completed, first DHB being signed up, etc. At HY14 I’m looking for around $550k as being a very good result (+69%).

I’m happy to share and test views, let us know what conclusion you come to.

[False Profit]

skid you are spot on, large corperates have many ways of keeping competitors at the dock.
cxbladder is not the first product to try and crack the market, none have succeeded, and 90% of the testing is still done the same way it was 40 years ago.
I am confident that PEB will crack the market in the US but I am also confident that it is going to take longer(therefore more money) than most investors think.
Therefore I am exspecting to buy more PEB share's at lower levels, which I will do given the chance.
In saying all this most poeple on this site seem to understand that it will be slow going for a while yet.

I'm bowing to your greater knowledge but, on the one hand, you say many have tried and none have succeeded so why do you think PEB have what it takes? Is it good business vision, a gut feel or what?

Disc. holder of PEB, DIL and a few others I'd rather not mention :cool:

[False Profit]

I gave up investing by gut feeling years ago(my gut feelings cost me **** loads of money)
As for PEB they have 6 things going for them.
1. They have a very very good product.
2. Thier product is very cost competitive.
3. They have a diverse, timely and well planned marketing strategy.
4. The company is not promising amazing quick sales results.
5. I like some of the main investors although the holdings are not substancial.
6. Your risk versus reward is very attractive on this stock.

What I dont like about the company is it's current valuation $160 million is a bit rich.
I believe PEB belongs in my high risk portfolio, which mean's I dont hold a mountain of the stock.

I will be buying more PEB if investors get impatient(which I think some will) somewhere in the 40cps range.
or
If I am wrong( I dont mind if I am) and sales progress at the level the market anticapates I will be buying more share's(at much more than 54cps). If they do show signs of cracking the US market the share's will rocket and PEB will be another XRO.

Thanks for the summary of your position with PEB.
I think they are an exciting, well managed company and offer amazing returns if things go to plan. By their own admission they may face many issues in the next few years but the market appears to be theirs to take.

Just depends on the medical communities uptake of the new product plus the other products in the pipeline – no pun intended.