PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[blackcap]

Not inefficient imo.

SP clearly being held up by the underwriters on the one hand, and rights getting sold down as the last of the believers decide they are not going to put any more money in.

If the directors and management are not putting their money in and may instead be selling their rights (past examples), why should anyone believe their BS about how pleased they are to offer yet another wonderful opporunity to buy ever cheaper shares!

I know what you mean, but still inefficient in that that underwriters would be better off buying the rights at the cheaper price. But that would not serve their purposes (in getting the issue over the line) as they would otherwise get a pasting. Just so interesting to see observing from the sidelines. Wish I knew someone that would lend me a few hundred thousand PEB shares for a few weeks.

I just see the "underwriter" bidding 400k at 13.1 got taken out. What they going to do with those shares now? Not much bid left...

crazy, rights available at 1 cent now. Even bigger arbitrage opportunity. This company is going to be fully owned by NZ Instos shortly.

[Brain]

I have always thought that life is easier as a small diy investor. At least it is possible to get out without loosing your shirt maybe the sleeves and good part of the back whereas the instos will probably running around topless with this one.

[Balance]

I have always thought that life is easier as a small diy investor. At least it is possible to get out without loosing your shirt maybe the sleeves and good part of the back whereas the instos will probably running around topless with this one.

Well, they certainly have been pouring money in at ever lower prices and a thinking person would ask : when something keeps getting cheaper, there must be something amiss?

[Balance]

I know what you mean, but still inefficient in that that underwriters would be better off buying the rights at the cheaper price. But that would not serve their purposes (in getting the issue over the line) as they would otherwise get a pasting. Just so interesting to see observing from the sidelines. Wish I knew someone that would lend me a few hundred thousand PEB shares for a few weeks.

I just see the "underwriter" bidding 400k at 13.1 got taken out. What they going to do with those shares now? Not much bid left...

crazy, rights available at 1 cent now. Even bigger arbitrage opportunity. This company is going to be fully owned by NZ Instos shortly.

Pathetic volume now on the bid side as the underwriter obviously did not expect to get smacked and has now gone into hiding at 6 cents. :D

That's a quick $8,400 loss as the shares could have been bought via the rights at 11c.

But the underwriter will not care - it's not their money, it's their investors'. :t_down:

[Balance]

Rupert, the ticker is PEBRF, last traded 2.6 cents per right, if you wanted to sell them. Or, you could pay the 10 cents by accepting the rights, and have a smaller position......make your own mind up though

Just read the rights information again, it looks like rights quotation ceases tomorrow.

Means those who are not going to throw in more money needs to sell by today or else, their rights will have zero value.

[RTM]

Just read the rights information again, it looks like rights quotation ceases tomorrow.

Means those who are not going to throw in more money needs to sell by today or else, their rights will have zero value.

End of tomorrow I think.
"...and will end at 5.00pm on 5 December 2019"
No...I do not hold, but know someone who does.

[Beagle]

https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/assets/public/Forms-and-Documents/for21213-1910-Service-Disclosure-Statement-f.pdf

You hand and surrender over your funds and financial assets like shares & bonds to be managed at their discretion - because they are professional, have superior knowledge and are 100% dedicated to maximising profits for clients.

Impossible to overstate the degree of risk involved here:- Investment management risk: This is the risk that, through your Investment Advisers, we make poor investment decisions, or other decisions which have an adverse impact on your portfolio
By inference, there are poor investment decisions and then even worse ones :eek2:..and you pay them money for this :eek2: :eek2:

[RTM]

End of tomorrow I think.
"...and will end at 5.00pm on 5 December 2019"
No...I do not hold, but know someone who does.

So....941 rights.
2.5c = $23
Brokerage $15
I guess they will lapse.

[Balance]

So....941 rights.
2.5c = $23
Brokerage $15
I guess they will lapse.

Not so easy for directors and management to let them lapse - DD for eg has 1m plus rights so there’s $10k there to repair & pain the decks?

[BigBob]

Not so easy for directors and management to let them lapse - DD for eg has 1m plus rights so there’s $10k there to repair & pain the decks?

Well, it looks like John Duncan got himself a handful at 15c... Almost 500k for around $75k....

Thats a pretty good start - let's see if if any of the others show the same level of confidence...

[Balance]

Well, it looks like John Duncan got himself a handful at 15c... Almost 500k for around $75k....

Thats a pretty good start - let's see if if any of the others show the same level of confidence...

Yes, he showed confidence too by buying 500,000 shares at 20c when he became a director, remember? And he already bought 400,000 shares prior to becoming a director.

He will be down easily $100k so far on the 900k shares.

On the 500k he bought at 15c in the placement, he's already down $15k.

I must admit I am rather surprised he did not bailed out of the shares when he quit but if he likes throwing good money after bad like the institutions, one must wish him good luck!

[davflaws]

I must admit I am rather surprised he did not bailed out of the shares when he quit but if he likes throwing good money after bad like the institutions, one must wish him good luck!

Do you really wish him good luck? Or would you rather be right and see PEB finally fail?

[Balance]

Do you really wish him good luck? Or would you rather be right and see PEB finally fail?

Why would I wish PEB to fail?

I am on record writing (previous postings) that NZ needs companies like PEB to succeed. We desperately need meditech and biotech companies to succeed just as they have in Australia - Cochlear and CSL come to mind.

But we do not need directors and management of the type in PEB who have showed themselves to be incompetent, unaccountable and thoroughly lacking in commercial nous - burning through capital raised through using highly positive expectations and promises which they have not delivered on.

I wish John Duncan good luck because I am suitably surprised & impressed that he is prepared to put in good money after bad so far. He will be sitting on a loss in excess of $100k so far.

[davflaws]

Why would I wish PEB to fail?

I am on record writing (previous postings) that NZ needs companies like PEB to succeed. We desperately need meditech and biotech companies to succeed just as they have in Australia - Cochlear and CSL come to mind.

But we do not need directors and management of the type in PEB who have showed themselves to be incompetent, unaccountable and thoroughly lacking in commercial nous - burning through capital raised through using highly positive expectations and promises which they have not delivered on.

I wish John Duncan good luck because I am suitably surprised & impressed that he is prepared to put in good money after bad so far. He will be sitting on a loss in excess of $100k so far.

Thank you. I appreciate your response.

[kiwidollabill]

Why would I wish PEB to fail?

I am on record writing (previous postings) that NZ needs companies like PEB to succeed. We desperately need meditech and biotech companies to succeed just as they have in Australia - Cochlear and CSL come to mind.

But we do not need directors and management of the type in PEB who have showed themselves to be incompetent, unaccountable and thoroughly lacking in commercial nous - burning through capital raised through using highly positive expectations and promises which they have not delivered on.

I wish John Duncan good luck because I am suitably surprised & impressed that he is prepared to put in good money after bad so far. He will be sitting on a loss in excess of $100k so far.

ASX may have Cochlear and CSL but they have an awful lot of dross in the biotech sector. The (highly) profitable non-multinational biotech in NZ is all in private hands

[Balance]

ASX may have Cochlear and CSL but they have an awful lot of dross in the biotech sector. The (highly) profitable non-multinational biotech in NZ is all in private hands

All true, kiwidollabill and the profitable non-multinational biotech companies in NZ will continue to stay in private hands as there are really no huge success stories on the NZX to prompt them to list, raise capital and grow their businesses many fold.

Instead all we see are the diabolical Genesis, Botry Zen, Bliss, PEB, Truscreen, SeaDragon etc hogging the 'flashing $$$ down the dunny' biotech & medtech NZX listed sector!

That's a pity for NZ as a thriving and growing medtech and biotech sector here will do great things for the future of our country - create jobs, provide opportunities & inspirations for youngsters coming through and provide another leg to our economic base.

Think of what ATM and Xero have done for NZ or for that matter, Diligent and Serko.

I recently evaluated a mussel extract company run by a scientist which has been funded by a few private individuals over the last 5 years - amazing pharmaceutical and medical uses from the extract. Had to agree with them that they should accept an offer made to them from one of NZ's most successful and diverse private family owned companies (turnover in the billions of dollars) to take over the company. The scientist and his several staff keep their jobs, the company gets a few million dollars more worth of funding to commercialize the product and the investors made 200% on their funds. NZX and we as investors miss out on the opportunity.

[RTM]

You missed ICP Bio Balance. For those interested in some history.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/46814/brent-king-explains-what-he-got-wrong-dorchester-icp-bio
And yes....your summation above is 100% correct, NZ Inc is the big loser.
What sensible investor would put money into this sector given its history ?
Oooops….I did...for a while.

[enzed staffy]

the more successful NZ biotech companies and medically related ones seem to list in Australia on ASX look at NEU and VHT both NZ intelligence and NZ companies (at least originally)

[Balance]

You missed ICP Bio Balance. For those interested in some history.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/46814/brent-king-explains-what-he-got-wrong-dorchester-icp-bio
And yes....your summation above is 100% correct, NZ Inc is the big loser.
What sensible investor would put money into this sector given its history ?
Oooops….I did...for a while.

Haha - indeed I did!

What a stinker that was! Dodgy accounting (ie. sales brought forward, sale or return), ever new & bigger deals in India, US and where-ever else, CEO who succeeded at nothing in the listed space (next posting for him was Certified Organics*) and shareholders fighting one another!

* Yet another listed biotech disaster! https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1257-CER-Certified-organics/page26&highlight=cer

[kiwidollabill]

Haha - indeed I did!

What a stinker that was! Dodgy accounting (ie. sales brought forward, sale or return), ever new & bigger deals in India, US and where-ever else, CEO who succeeded at nothing in the listed space (next posting for him was Certified Organics) and shareholders fighting one another!

Interesting, I had a walk through of the old ICP bio facility a few years back (now owned by MP bio), the production room occupies a fraction of the overall complex and clearly there were greater aspirations for scale.... from a product perspective although the BSA they manufactured is of extremely good quality it is overspec of what the majority of the market needs...

Again, an overseas company gets it right.... https://www.proliantbiologicals.com/manufacturing/new-zealand-facility

[artemis]

I've been keeping an eye on Aroa Biosurgery since a rumour a few months ago it could list (somewhere). Profitable, growing, excellent rep. Probably a takeover offer is more likely. (They make bioscaffolding for wounds, especially tricky wounds.)

Agree we have serious expertise here in medtech and biotech.

[Balance]

Interesting, I had a walk through of the old ICP bio facility a few years back (now owned by MP bio), the production room occupies a fraction of the overall complex and clearly there were greater aspirations for scale.... from a product perspective although the BSA they manufactured is of extremely good quality it is overspec of what the majority of the market needs...

Again, an overseas company gets it right.... https://www.proliantbiologicals.com/manufacturing/new-zealand-facility

Answer may have to be to bring in an overseas partner with the right credentials and track record at commercialization from when the products are ready for market.

Better to own 33% of a billion dollar company than 100% of a $1m company which continuously burns investors and cash!

Reminds me of the adage in the trophy property development game - always wait to buy from the first developer!

[RTM]

I've been keeping an eye on Aroa Biosurgery since a rumour a few months ago it could list (somewhere). Profitable, growing, excellent rep. Probably a takeover offer is more likely. (They make bioscaffolding for wounds, especially tricky wounds.)

Agree we have serious expertise here in medtech and biotech.

And Sanford were playing around with a collagen type product ….wonder how this is going ?
https://youtu.be/wZ4rgDf-v4E

[Balance]

And here's an urgent reminder for shareholders with rights to front up with their money by close of business on 11th December!

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/345574/313509.pdf

"The Board wishes to thank you for your continued support of Pacifific Edge and we look forward to your involvement in the offer."

No mention anywhere as to the intentions of the Board and management in respect of their rights (of course!) and whether they look forward to their own involvement in the offer!

[Balance]

Freaking heck!

Must admit this John Duncan guy is either onto a huge winner or he is like the underwriters, sucking hard on a very very sour lemon and enjoying the taste!

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/345576/313513.pdf

Doubling up on his bet with PEB with 832k shares at 15c - already down $25k in 2 weeks and having to front up with another $40k for his rights (unless he has sold them).

[kiwidollabill]

And Sanford were playing around with a collagen type product ….wonder how this is going ?
https://youtu.be/wZ4rgDf-v4E

Good I believe, some of it goes here

https://www.revolutionfibres.com/

[kiwidollabill]

Answer may have to be to bring in an overseas partner with the right credentials and track record at commercialization from when the products are ready for market.

Better to own 33% of a billion dollar company than 100% of a $1m company which continuously burns investors and cash!

Reminds me of the adage in the trophy property development game - always wait to buy from the first developer!

NB: Proliant looked at purchasing the ICP facility, but it wasnt really worth it, product was overspec, facility not quite suitable and too expensive, minimal supply agreements etc

ICP production is alot less sophisticated when you know what you are looking at.... batch processed serum going through resins and filtering

[kiwidollabill]

Better opportunity IMHO is ASX:HRL, purchased Analytica Laboratories. Senior team there know what they are doing, cheap stock , they will help turn it arround.

I digress from PEB....

[RTM]

Good I believe, some of it goes here

https://www.revolutionfibres.com/

Thanks. Better keep it brief, given its a PEB thread. Thx for the link. Will take a look.

[Balance]

Thanks. Better keep it brief, given its a PEB thread. Thx for the link. Will take a look.

It’s ok ... that’s how we all share information and investment ideas & views.

There’s only so much we can talk about with the ever capital raising ‘success is around the corner’ for the multi-billion dollar revenue opportunity PEB!

Wonder what announcements they are going to try to come up with in the next 4 days to ‘persuade’ non institutional shareholders to put in more money.

Last rights issue, there was 27.1% shortfall - which means pretty much all non-institutional shareholders did not participate. And they were the smart ones as history records rights price at 32c vs 12c sp now!

Ouch!

[kiwidollabill]

Ok, here's a PEB question. Current MkCap is 67M, in the (hypothetical) event that this goes to zero, I see a situation where someone buys the dregs to start again - probably license the tech out to someone else or already by a multinational. Question is, what is an estimate of the intrinsic value of the IP/assets at that point in time?

[RTM]

Ok, here's a PEB question. Current MkCap is 67M, in the (hypothetical) event that this goes to zero, I see a situation where someone buys the dregs to start again - probably license the tech out to someone else or already by a multinational. Question is, what is an estimate of the intrinsic value of the IP/assets at that point in time?

Hard to know. They have been at it so long there are probably better / newer technologies now to do the assays they are doing.
The knowledge/science is also more widely known. I wouldn't be thinking it was a lot. If it was....then why haven't one of the bigger companies bought them out by now ? That's one of the factors that encouraged me to sell. Its just taking way way to long in a world that changes quickly.

[BigBob]

Its just taking way way to long in a world that changes quickly.

It seems to me that their main problem is that they actually operate in a world that changes extremely slowly....

[RTM]

It seems to me that their main problem is that they actually operate in a world that changes extremely slowly....

Certainly seems like that. Might have been a bit different if they were trying to introduce a replacement biochemical test in a biochemistry lab....but across disciplines like this.....its obviously hard going. Not quite sure that that is the major issue. But I do know that in addition to this....technology will have moved on pretty significantly. Others can probably do a similar test now....quicker and cheaper. Whether they will have a similar struggle to get accepted....time will tell. I know what I'd rather have if I was the customer.

[BigBob]

Certainly seems like that. Might have been a bit different if they were trying to introduce a replacement biochemical test in a biochemistry lab....but across disciplines like this.....its obviously hard going. Not quite sure that that is the major issue. But I do know that in addition to this....technology will have moved on pretty significantly. Others can probably do a similar test now....quicker and cheaper. Whether they will have a similar struggle to get accepted....time will tell. I know what I'd rather have if I was the customer.

Yeah, I don't disagree... But it doesn't appear to be the technology itself that's causing the endless delays, but rather the requirement for external and independent validation and reviews etc, which would surely be the same for any provider of newer tech...

[RTM]

Yeah, I don't disagree... But it doesn't appear to be the technology itself that's causing the endless delays, but rather the requirement for external and independent validation and reviews etc, which would surely be the same for any provider of newer tech...

….and they may benefit from the effort that PEB has put in. Doesn't seem right, does it.

[Balance]

Yeah, I don't disagree... But it doesn't appear to be the technology itself that's causing the endless delays, but rather the requirement for external and independent validation and reviews etc, which would surely be the same for any provider of newer tech...

PEB has proven to be run by a bunch of highly paid incompetent amateurs who have blundered from one test program to another without any clear idea of what was/is really required to get CxBladder accepted and used in the US.

Damn good though at making promises and hyping expectations to obtain money from many lemon sucking shareholders.

[BigBob]

PEB has proven to be run by a bunch of highly paid incompetent amateurs who have blundered from one test program to another without any clear idea of what was/is really required to get CxBladder accepted and used in the US.

Damn good though at making promises and hyping expectations to obtain money from many lemon sucking shareholders.

Wow, really...!! Thanks for making that point again... I didn't get it the other 10000 times....

[kiwidollabill]

It seems to me that their main problem is that they actually operate in a world that changes extremely slowly....

Thats generally true but their claims are to be their own undoing.

Prof investors in US/EU know how long it takes to progress approvals and so bank on getting a multiple only after ~10+ years.

The lack of experience with PEB showed with very bullish statements from them and their underwriters in the early days and failing to progress on a meaningful timeframe.

Compare perhaps with Materni21 from Sequenom/Labcorp, arguebly far more pioneering than CXbladder (change of clinical approach, novel sample collection Next Gen Sequencing etc) available since 2011 and they are making bank from it

[Balance]

Wow, really...!! Thanks for making that point again... I didn't get it the other 10000 times....

The point you make is a valid and pertinent one, BigBob - "the requirement for external and independent validation and reviews etc, which would surely be the same for any provider of newer tech.."

My point is that the onerous regulatory and compliance requirements are well known to launch a new ‘innovative’ & ‘game changing’ medical product or service in the States! The issue is one of navigating and managing the process as effectively and efficiently as possible.

It is folly of anyone to blame the requirements - which unfortunately is what PEB’s management have been doing while collecting multi-million dollar salaries and benefits.

So you cannot blame the process - it has to be incompetent management.

[Balance]

Thats generally true but their claims are to be their own undoing.

Prof investors in US/EU know how long it takes to progress approvals and so bank on getting a multiple only after ~10+ years.

The lack of experience with PEB showed with very bullish statements from them and their underwriters in the early days and failing to progress on a meaningful timeframe.

Compare perhaps with Materni21 from Sequenom/Labcorp, arguebly far more pioneering than CXbladder (change of clinical approach, novel sample collection Next Gen Sequencing etc) available since 2011 and they are making bank from it

Thanks, kiwidollabill. Puts things in sharp perspective.

https://www.clinicalomics.com/topics/precision-medicine-topic/business/labcorp-snaps-up-sequenom-in-371m-deal/

[Xerof]

I see J Duncan 'forgot' about an extra 300k he picked up in the placement and has produced an amended notice. I suspect he got convinced later on to take them up, off an underwriter, who had perhaps over-estimated demand?

Btw, I'm somewhat encouraged by the fact he has gone in again, despite resigning suddenly. Perhaps the much vaunted conspiracy theories put out on his departure were well off the mark? (me included I think, but can't be bothered looking back. Balance will hang, draw and quarter me for any inconsistency anyway):D

I have thrown some good money towards my tiny (free-carried) holding via the rights. I think they're getting there, but it's not going to set the world on fire with the incumbent governance and management teams. Clear the decks, and it might get a bit of a boost

[Ggcc]

I could not get roped in unless there was a change in management or sales trajectory with this share. At least I got some money back after listening to Balance. Sold at 48 cents so happy right now.

[Balance]

I could not get roped in unless there was a change in management or sales trajectory with this share. At least I got some money back after listening to Balance. Sold at 48 cents so happy right now.

Which means you can buy back 4 times the number of shares you sold out at.

Let's see what the directors do this time round with the rights issue - will they front up and put in some of their own money or will it be like all the other rights issue where capital is raised so that they continue to pay themselves handsomely in fees, benefits and salaries for delivering bugger all.

[whatsup]

Looks like PEB is off its rights raising low for the moment , I bought more to day to add to my rights haul, this better come good at some stage !

[blackcap]

Looks like PEB is off its rights raising low for the moment , I bought more to day to add to my rights haul, this better come good at some stage !

I am guessing the underwriters are keeping the stock up so that people pay their money to take up the rights? I see that you have till Wednesday to take them up. If I were an underwriter I would be keeping the price above 12 cents till Wednesday at least. After that, its job done. Lets see what happens then.

[Balance]

I am guessing the underwriters are keeping the stock up so that people pay their money to take up the rights? I see that you have till Wednesday to take them up. If I were an underwriter I would be keeping the price above 12 cents till Wednesday at least. After that, its job done. Lets see what happens then.

Being a heavily discounted rights issue, it could be the other way - the underwriters sell their existing shares in full expectations that they will replace the sold shares with 10c shares from the shortfall.

Happened with Fletcher Forests and the underwriters (and sub-underwriters) did very well out of that heavily discounted rights issue.

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/345725/313674.pdf

Do my eyes deceive me?

Kate Rankin who will be leaving PEB has actually bought more rights to increase her shareholding in PEB?

[BigBob]

Let's see what the directors do this time round with the rights issue - will they front up and put in some of their own money or will it be like all the other rights issue where capital is raised so that they continue to pay themselves handsomely in fees, benefits and salaries for delivering bugger all.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/345725

So, DD sold down some rights to facilitate purchase of shares pertinent to those rights - by my reckoning he still has just over 250,000 rights left, so is presumably looking to spend about 25k.
KR bought an additional 70,000 rights (which judging by the total amount paid of $7,700 have already been converted...?) - the notice seems to be incorrect though, because the total number of shares she has an interest in remains unchanged.

So, although it is hardly a ringing endorsement at least some insiders seem to be participating....

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/345725

So, DD sold down some rights to facilitate purchase of shares pertinent to those rights - by my reckoning he still has just over 250,000 rights left, so is presumably looking to spend about 25k.
KR bought an additional 70,000 rights (which judging by the total amount paid of $7,700 have already been converted...?) - the notice seems to be incorrect though, because the total number of shares she has an interest in remains unchanged.

So, although it is hardly a ringing endorsement at least some insiders seem to be participating....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/345734/313692.pdf

Chairman bought 300,000 rights - interesting.

You reckon they read the comments here from yours truly and decided they better show some commitment? :p

[BigBob]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/345734/313692.pdf

Chairman bought 300,000 rights - interesting.

You reckon they read the comments here from yours truly and decided they better show some commitment? :p

LOL... Maybe... At least they are participating this time around - I don't think that's ever happened before...

And at the face of it, they are wanting more stock than they are entitled to through the 1 for 4.25 issue.... Hmmmm....

[Balance]

LOL... Maybe... At least they are participating this time around - I don't think that's ever happened before...

And at the face of it, they are wanting more stock than they are entitled to through the 4.25 for 1 issue.... Hmmmm....

Get on board before the train really leaves the station, you reckon? :eek2:

[BigBob]

Get on board before the train really leaves the station, you reckon? :eek2:

I think there will be a few stops where passengers can hop on the train before it gathers any real speed...

[Dentie]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/345734/313692.pdf

Chairman bought 300,000 rights - interesting.

You reckon they read the comments here from yours truly and decided they better show some commitment? :p

Don't flatter yourself. Self adulatory comments are never a good look....especially on a public forum. Even our minute market is far big enough to have even heard of you.

Had the Chairman purchased a token of (say) 20,000 rights, I may have raised an eyebrow but 300,000? .... no way!

[Balance]

Don't flatter yourself. Self adulatory comments are never a good look....especially on a public forum. Even our minute market is far big enough to have even heard of you.

Had the Chairman purchased a token of (say) 20,000 rights, I may have raised an eyebrow but 300,000? .... no way!

Of course I am flattering myself.

Because of me, many have saved themselves a lot of money and grief by selling out at much much higher prices.

And if they so wish, they can buy back a multiple of the shares they sold.

That’s worth something.

[barney]

I believe RTM gave a fair assessment of what the endgame looks like.

When John Duncan (with his chequered history with PGC) decided to bail out of PEB, it is clear imo that he sees the writing on the wall and does not want to be associated with yet another corporate mishap on his record.

Got a funny way of showing it.

[Balance]

Got a funny way of showing it.

What do you think of his way of showing it?

[whatsup]

With the rights issue closing tomorrow 5-00pm Wednesday who isn't subscribing and why ?

[Balance]

With the rights issue closing tomorrow 5-00pm Wednesday who isn't subscribing and why ?

1. Because they have made horrendous losses from the last 5 cash issues?

2018 - 35c

2017 - 32c

2015 - 61c

2013 - 55c

2011 - 19c

2. Because they have already sold their rights?

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/345878/313854.pdf

14.99% or around 15m rights not taken up.

Now that's leaving money on the table - around $450,000 based upon sp of 13c.

Some PEB shareholders are a generous lot!

[whatsup]

Bal don't be so negative, glass is half full, 85% take up, well done PEB.

[kiwidollabill]

What was the take up last time?

[Balance]

Bal don't be so negative, glass is half full, 85% take up, well done PEB.

Making an observation that some shareholders are rather generous - neither positive nor negative.

[Balance]

What was the take up last time?

Last shortfall was 27.1%.

[Beagle]

1. Because they have made horrendous losses from the last 5 cash issues?

2018 - 35c

2017 - 32c

2015 - 61c

2013 - 55c

2011 - 19c

2. Because they have already sold their rights?

I am pretty sure every time they did these issues in the past they said that the proceeds would carry them through until they were profitable.

I am surprised enough people believe them this time to keep this flea ridden pup limping along a bit longer.

[Balance]

I am pretty sure every time they did these issues in the past they said that the proceeds would carry them through until they were profitable.

I am surprised enough people believe them this time to keep this flea ridden pup limping along a bit longer.

Don’t be so negative, Beagle. This time will definitely be the last one.

[Ggcc]

Don’t be so negative, Beagle. This time will definitely be the last one.
Damn I missed out

[kiwidollabill]

Sorry to digress again....

Does anyone know where I could find the old presentations/financials for ICP Bio?

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/346084/314093.pdf

Gee, the directors seem to have caught the underwriters' disease - buying more shares!

[Ggcc]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/346084/314093.pdf

Gee, the directors seem to have caught the underwriters' disease - buying more shares!
And their shares are not trading right now???

[Balance]

And their shares are not trading right now???

Tomorrow is when the shares under the rights issue are allotted and allowed to trade.

Let's see what the directors took up then.

[Ggcc]

Tomorrow is when the shares under the rights issue are allotted and allowed to trade.

Let's see what the directors took up then.
Right. I forgot about that. I can’t wait to snap some up on no new news

[Balance]

Right. I forgot about that. I can’t wait to snap some up on no new news

1.7m shares crossed at 12.8c ... rather interesting considering plenty of rights traded at the equivalent of 11c 2 weeks ago.

Someone knows something?

[winner69]

How nice - PEB sent me a Happy Holidays message by email.

Very nice of them

[Cadalac123]

PEB is a sad story really. Product that is actually being used by the DHBs and has some degree of clinician usefulness, however the company clearly had no idea how to appropriately commercialise it.

It's depressing because had they kept their product to Australasia initially to gain initial exposure with a gradual expansion to the US.. this shareprice would be easily above $1 right now.

[pierre]

Tomorrow is when the shares under the rights issue are allotted and allowed to trade.

Let's see what the directors took up then.

How strange that we haven't had a comment acknowledging the directors and executives who supported the cap raise - but doing that would ruin the ongoing negative narrative I guess.

[Balance]

How nice - PEB sent me a Happy Holidays message by email.

Very nice of them

That's nice of them.

Presumably it came with thanks for putting more money to pay the salaries of the highly paid executives and for keeping the company afloat?

[Dentie]

That's nice of them.

Presumably it came with thanks for putting more money to pay the salaries of the highly paid executives and for keeping the company afloat?

A typically mischievous swipe from you Balance...you just can't help yourself.

As most of us know, ALL companies (in fact, ALL businesses!) would drown if they didn't receive enough cash to fund themselves...be it equity or debt. Mind you, you would probably also know that - whether you've owned a business or not.

Merry Xmas Balance - I hope (for all our sakes!) your personal crusade will no longer be necessary not too long after the start of 2020.

[Balance]

How strange that we haven't had a comment acknowledging the directors and executives who supported the cap raise - but doing that would ruin the ongoing negative narrative I guess.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/346318

Yup - it's good to see directors and executives putting money into the capital raising.

Worthwhile giving a special mention to John Duncan (after resigning abruptly as director with no explanation) - he increased his stake from 900k shares to 2.485m during the rights issue. Certainly got my attention.

Also, worth mentioning Kate Rankin - not so much for the amount she put in ($12k) but the fact that she has not bailed out after deciding to resign.

David Darling did the usual tokenism - sold most of his rights (80%) to purchase shares. In the past, they all sold their in the money rights and pocketed the money. He would have been advised not to do so this time.

[Balance]

A typically mischievous swipe from you Balance...you just can't help yourself.

As most of us know, ALL companies (in fact, ALL businesses!) would drown if they didn't receive enough cash to fund themselves...be it equity or debt. Mind you, you would probably also know that - whether you've owned a business or not.

Merry Xmas Balance - I hope (for all our sakes!) your personal crusade will no longer be necessary not too long after the start of 2020.

All companies use equity and debt indeed to operate and build up successful businesses, and give good returns to their owners/shareholders.

It has been one way street for PEB - where is the successful business promised year after year after massive injection of funds year after year? Shareholders have received nothing but losses year after year!!!!

As for personal crusade, open up your mind and I genuinely believe you will see that everything I have written on PEB is right on the button. Less so a personal crusade than pointing out the obvious - like dodgy accounting and bumbling commercialization.

But as we close in on a new year and reflect back on 2019 and all that has happened, allow me to give credit to the long suffering shareholders of PEB who have seen nothing by way of returns for their patience and financial support.

Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and may 2020 bring you relief from your suffering and reward for your patience and support.

Have a great holiday, Dentie and the best of the festive season.

[Cadalac123]

There's always hope for the company being taken over by a bigger player for their cxbladder product which I can tell you does have real clinical validity. However would advise caution there was a similar company years ago apparently in the same situation as PEB, clinical tool for prostate cancer that was actually okay clinically but the company just collapsed - no buy out or anything. Didn't matter how good the product was.

[Balance]

There's always hope for the company being taken over by a bigger player for their cxbladder product which I can tell you does have real clinical validity. However would advise caution there was a similar company years ago apparently in the same situation as PEB, clinical tool for prostate cancer that was actually okay clinically but the company just collapsed - no buy out or anything. Didn't matter how good the product was.

Success in business is not just about having a great product or service - it's more about how to best market a good product as well.

Those of us with long enough memories will remember a company in NZ called Fortex which was the darling of the sharemarket and lauded as the fore-runner to further processing and export of lamb. All great stuff but the company collapsed owing a lot of money to everyone and shareholders who willingly backed the company were left with zilch.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=2050123

Dodgy accounting and the CEO actually bought more shares when the company was going under to show his commitment!

Does the market ever learn?

CBL, Intueri and Feltex to name 3 show the market does not.

[Balance]

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20191214/Molecular-subtyping-of-bladder-tumors-outperformed-by-standard-pathology-tests.aspx

“Molecular subtyping of bladder tumors outperformed by standard pathology tests”

" .... scientists found that sophisticated new subtyping techniques designed to do this provide no better information than long-standing pathology tests"

Still a long road ahead for PEB, I suspect.

[Dentie]

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20191214/Molecular-subtyping-of-bladder-tumors-outperformed-by-standard-pathology-tests.aspx

“Molecular subtyping of bladder tumors outperformed by standard pathology tests”

" .... scientists found that sophisticated new subtyping techniques designed to do this provide no better information than long-standing pathology tests"

Still a long road ahead for PEB, I suspect.

As the world knows, I'm no medical scientist, but it seems to me your above selected quotes Balance relate to the "outcome and treatment options" of bladder cancer. As more and more of the world's Urologists are becoming aware, CxBladder excels in the "early detection" of bladder cancer.

You have to know it exists before you can treat it and manage it.

[Balance]

Matter of time really when better tests are launched into the market - like this one.

6 years into its commercialization program and PEB is still writing about the 'infancy' of its program last year!

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kdx-diagnostics-announces-fda-breakthrough-device-designation-for-uro17-innovative-urine-test-for-bladder-cancer-300984027.html

" ... the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted "Breakthrough Device" designation for its URO17™ Bladder Cancer Recurrence Test. This revolutionary new test exploits a novel cancer marker that could dramatically improve the accuracy and sensitivity of non-invasive bladder cancer testing."

" .... the URO17™ test exhibited 100% sensitivity and 96% specificity in detecting recurrent bladder cancer from urine samples".

[Balance]

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/kdx-diagnostics-announces-fda-breakthrough-device-designation-for-uro17-innovative-urine-test-for-bladder-cancer-300984027.html

" ... the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted "Breakthrough Device" designation for its URO17™ Bladder Cancer Recurrence Test. This revolutionary new test exploits a novel cancer marker that could dramatically improve the accuracy and sensitivity of non-invasive bladder cancer testing."

" .... the URO17™ test exhibited 100% sensitivity and 96% specificity in detecting recurrent bladder cancer from urine samples".

Looking close at the company behind the URO17™ test, KDx Diagnostics Inc, it is very telling that this company was only formed in 2016* and has obviously taken a different approach to PEB with its commercialization strategy and path.

https://www.kdxdiagnostics.com

By going through the FDA and the "Breakthrough Device" designation for its URO17™ test, KDx is going to be able to fast track the launch and adoption of the test into the market.

https://www.meddeviceonline.com/doc/understanding-the-fda-s-breakthrough-devices-program-0001

Here's what the designation mean :

"In addition to the obvious benefits to patients with debilitating or life-threatening conditions, manufacturers currently developing a new device stand to benefit from the expedited pathway created by the Breakthrough Device Program — provided their device fulfils the program’s criteria, enabling the manufacturer to market the device much sooner than has previously been possible. This pathway also offers the benefit of a collaborative partnership with the FDA, including participation from high-level managers, which may produce useful insights and experience for future regulatory submissions."

2016* - PEB was supposed to well into its commercialization program, having trumpeted its first sale of CxBladder in US in 2013! Instead, PEB looks like it may be left in the dust by a superior test which will be launched into the market by a competitor!

[Carpenterjoe]

Good to see some targeted advertising, Putting a little pressure on those using out of date diagnostics technology.

https://www.urologytimes.com/sites/default/files/legacy/mm/digital/media/UT0220_Ezine.pdf (https://www.urologytimes.com/sites/default/files/legacy/mm/digital/media/UT0220_Ezine.pdf)

[davflaws]

PEB looks like it may be left in the dust by a superior test which will be launched into the market by a competitor!

Or not. URO17 may or may not be better, and KDx may or may not have made a wise decision while PEB made a foolish one. Their management may be more competent, and they have certainly not had time to develop PEB's track record of unfulfilled expectations and poor press.

What would be helpful to me (and maybe others) would be to have you use your undoubted skills and knowledge to make some prognostications about the probable fate of PEB - perhaps even with some tentative timelines. You have already put enormous effort and hundreds of posts into warning prospective buyers not to invest, and advising holders to get out.

I put a few grand into PEB years ago and it was a punt. It is now the only red line in my portfolio, because my other punts (PLX, ATM, and BLT) have all done well and been added to as they did so. Perhaps I should have followed your advice years ago. I would have recovered enough to build a few meters of deck! I probably would have done so but your very evident outrage made me suspicious that your advice was not "balanced". My bad.

But the brokerage to get in and out at this stage, and the brokerage to do something else with five hundred bucks is now a significant percentage of the play. So how about some sober prognostications about what is going to happen to this share and when, and how we will know you are in the process of being proved right about the next bit of the future and not just reposting anything negative you can find.

[whatsup]

Seemingly up market ann released today.

[winner69]

This is good news ..isn’t it

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/348274/316557.pdf

[Sideshow Bob]

Seemingly up market ann released today.

Another capital raise upcoming??

[winner69]

Like the phrase ‘real world’ in today’s announcement ......is that a place David occasionally visits from his ‘delusional world’

[winner69]

Are Pacific Edge currently doing any research looking for the next big thing to give them the edge ....or is life all about trying to commercialise what they’ve already got.

[Schrodinger]

Very granular announcements about product proof points. Not really interesting. Maybe PLX should announce when they change software code every day?

[bottomfeeder]

Doctors cant help themselves, any potential profit from CX Bladder in the future (if any) as well as all future capital raisings (there will be many), will end up being ploughed into further research. for some other esoteric product which will revolutinize the world of medicine. Doctors like to earn big money, spend big money, but once involved in research, they seek fame and knighthoods.

It is a shame, after the development of CX Bladder, it did not become a standalone product, and its a shame it wasnt fast tracked to the market with greater efficiency, and its a shame investors were shafted into disguising a self esteem and self aggrandisement development into a commercial product.

I would not invest in PEB no matter what the shareprice and no matter what the announcements were.

[winner69]

Doctors cant help themselves, any potential profit from CX Bladder in the future (if any) as well as all future capital raisings (there will be many), will end up being ploughed into further research. for some other esoteric product which will revolutinize the world of medicine. Doctors like to earn big money, spend big money, but once involved in research, they seek fame and knighthoods.

It is a shame, after the development of CX Bladder, it did not become a standalone product, and its a shame it wasnt fast tracked to the market with greater efficiency, and its a shame investors were shafted into disguising a self esteem and self aggrandisement development into a commercial product.

I would not invest in PEB no matter what the shareprice and no matter what the announcements were.

That’s some post mate ..and probably has a lot of truth in it.

Fund managers playing with money that’s not theirs should take heed.

[Snow Leopard]

This is good news ..isn’t it

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/348274/316557.pdf

I see the word "all" a few times which equates to

3 PHPs, [nearly] 3 years & barely 3 hundred patients.

NZ not going to make PEB very profitable is it?

So while it does seem to be better than frequent pokes in the ***** with a surgical implement it still needs mass adoption overseas.

[Carpenterjoe]

[QUOTE=Snow Leopard;791160]I see the word "all" a few times which equates to

3 PHPs, [nearly] 3 years & barely 3 hundred patients.

NZ not going to make PEB very profitable is it?
QUOTE]

Respectively disagree, Changing the gold standard in any country helps provide evidence for others to follow suit. All these small announcements that effect gold standards will add up. Personally I am very excited about the slow development of this company and the why's and how they are now doing it.

Apart from a few big stuff up's I see the boxes being ticked. I have noticed an improvements in communications since Chris Gallagher has joined the ranks. Information seems to be a little more factual and with less colour.

just my 2 cents, back to house building.

[winner69]

PEB top of the leader board on the NZX today

Form is temporary but class always prevails they say.

[Sideshow Bob]

PEB top of the leader board on the NZX today

Form is temporary but class always prevails they say.

So which one relates to PEB....?? Form or class?

[bottomfeeder]

PEB top of the leader board on the NZX today

Form is temporary but class always prevails they say.

Cant find it now though. Fame is so fleeting.

[Timesurfer]

Cant find it now though. Fame is so fleeting.
Never underestimate the resilience of a dead dog

[Balance]

Never underestimate the resilience of a dead dog

The underwriters are continuing to throw $$$ to support the sp - as they have been in the last 3 years.

Hoping for other investors to get sucked into this resilient stock - as they have been trying to demonstrate over the last 3 years.

[Schrodinger]

Why is no one mentioning the stellar performance by PEB and its great hedge against the virus? Well done PEB.

[Sideshow Bob]

Why is no one mentioning the stellar performance by PEB and its great hedge against the virus? Well done PEB.

Yeah, already down 40% from 6 months ago...….

[Balance]

Yeah, already down 40% from 6 months ago...….

And 53% from a year ago, and down 80% over the last 4 years.

Only ones left in the stock are the die-hards and the underwriters who can make the market price whatever they want (within reason as they are wary of the die-hards selling more to them if they hold up the sp too much).

[BigBob]

Why is no one mentioning the stellar performance by PEB and its great hedge against the virus? Well done PEB.

LOL.... I think you might have alerted the bear here.... Down over 30% since your comment... :-)

[bottomfeeder]

Now wouldn't it be a boost to the share price if they said they are working on a corona vaccine. After all if the US is getting a vaccine ready, They will have to make 1/2 bill for themselves first, then the UK, then Israel, Saudi Arabia, NZ will be near the bottom of the line. We need a home grown alternative.

[BigBob]

Now wouldn't it be a boost to the share price if they said they are working on a corona vaccine. After all if the US is getting a vaccine ready, They will have to make 1/2 bill for themselves first, then the UK, then Israel, Saudi Arabia, NZ will be near the bottom of the line. We need a home grown alternative.

Or that they are using their lab to process tests for the virus....

[Sideshow Bob]

Now wouldn't it be a boost to the share price if they said they are working on a corona vaccine. After all if the US is getting a vaccine ready, They will have to make 1/2 bill for themselves first, then the UK, then Israel, Saudi Arabia, NZ will be near the bottom of the line. We need a home grown alternative.

Don't give them ideas BF......

[whatsup]

Is PEB being squeezed atm due to a pending C R ?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Is PEB being squeezed atm due to a pending C R ?

Good luck getting capital in current market conditions... especially for PEB. Their days could well be numbered.

[barney]

The magnitude of the economic shock from all this is going to be something akin to the 1930'"s and most companies are in the gun, PEB included. But cases of bladder cancer and people presenting with symptoms are not going to diminish during this time. Will the medical clinics and hospitals in the US and around the world want patients turning up for diagnosis, monitoring, or cystoscopies when capacity is stretched. They are also going to be looking at cost efficiencies in a big way.
Maybe an accurate, low cost diagnostic test patients can do at home and courier to the lab might just come into it's own.

Whatever the future holds for PEB, I hope everyone on this thread and on the forum can weather the storm and come out the other side.

[Dentie]

I'm sure Jacinda and Grant can assist with a few billion for "liquidity"...

[Meister]

PEB up 50% in one day!? Crazy stuff, imagine what could happen if they actually ran a good business! :eek2:

[Sideshow Bob]

PEB up 50% in one day!? Crazy stuff, imagine what could happen if they actually ran a good business! :eek2:

Only $64k worth of shares gone through today. Dead cat or bear bounce, whatever you'd like to call it.

[kiwidollabill]

Announcement that they can continue on...

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350641

Since they've got the gear I'd like to think they've offered a hand to MoH to undertake some of the COVID testing. Dunedin hospital already has a reasonable genetics unit anywho.

[Arthur]

This might be a lifeline. If they cant get doctors to do no touch testing in this situation then they never will.

[stoploss]

50 for the price of one ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52090359

[Balance]

For long suffering PEB shareholders :

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351317

PEB just let out a small fart.

[Arthur]

Unfortunately not a company maker. I'm waiting for the "paid testing in USA up 200%" announcement that they should be capable of. No hope for the company if they cant get the test used in this social distancing environment. FA use doing all of those "user programmes" if they cannot even turn them into real paying customers now. They have a price, insurance companies that have agreed to pay, peer reviewed papers and several that have tested it. The sales people in the USA should be on the phone now reminding all of the previous testers that they have a no contact option.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351324

looks even better now it has the big red price sensitive icon stamped on it

[Arthur]

My guess is last financial year 31/3/20 they would have sold about $700,000 for the year into NZ, Aussie and Singapore. Double that is still diddly Squat of their costs (about 2 weeks expenses) The plus side of the virus is that all those expensive travel expenses Balance has talked about will be on hold for a while. Who knows, maybe the LCD coverage will eventuate, the bad debtors will pay up and the crusty old US based urologists will start thinking of their patients as well as their bottom line.

[Minerbarejet]

The world is changing
https://www.urotoday.com/video-lectures/covid-19-and-genitourinary-cancers/video/mediaitem/1736-alternative-strategies-to-deliver-bladder-cancer-investigation-during-covid-19-and-beyond-neal-shore-sima-porten-and-tom-nifong.html

Internet will only be available for entertainment for 24 minutes per day in order to conduct medical diagnosis the rest of the time

[whatsup]

The world is changing
https://www.urotoday.com/video-lectures/covid-19-and-genitourinary-cancers/video/mediaitem/1736-alternative-strategies-to-deliver-bladder-cancer-investigation-during-covid-19-and-beyond-neal-shore-sima-porten-and-tom-nifong.html

Internet will only be available for entertainment for 24 minutes per day in order to conduct medical diagnosis the rest of the time

Can we expect more recognition / uptake of PEB in the U S from this presentation ?

[Balance]

Can we expect more recognition / uptake of PEB in the U S from this presentation ?

Like making a noise from the posterior against a howling wind.

There is only one thing which can change the fortune of PEB in the US and does not look like it's happening - LCD coverage.

[BigBob]

There is only one thing which can change the fortune of PEB in the US and does not look like it's happening - LCD coverage.

It won't happen overnight, but it will happen....!! 🙂

[Balance]

It won't happen overnight, but it will happen....!! ��

Lost cause.

If it was going to happen, would have happened by end of 2019.

[Arthur]

I fear that you are correct Balance. They do however have a number of insurance companies that have agreed to pay for testing. If they are playing their cards right they should be making big bucks in USA now. What excuse could a urologist have for not offering this no contact option for their patients? It is the perfect time for those urologists that decided there was more money in physical testing to still be able to clip the ticket during "shelter in place" They can still tell their clients they would prefer to shove a rod in their penis, but while they delay that pleasure there is another way to consult. Loving PEB as we do, I fear that they will find a way to snatch defeat from the gimme they have been handed.

[Balance]

This is pathetic, even for PEB - still searching for the Holy Grail of LCD coverage, now citing another piece of evidence to plead for LCD coverage! It was supposed to be all in the bag and a question of time, remember?

https://newswire.iguana2.com/e30d7c2830541bc4/peb.nzx/352578/PEB_PEB_Investor_Update_May_2020

Excerpt : "This type of real world clinical utility evidence is also required for positive coverage decisions by reimbursement agencies in the US. Significantly, we were able to add this latest piece of peer- reviewed evidence into the clinical evidence dossier that is currently being reviewed by our Medicare Administrative Contractor (Novitas) as part of their ongoing consideration of our Local Coverage Determination application."

[Arthur]

Looking forward to hearing the latest excuse. The current environment seems tailor made for non contact testing, even without LCD. They have spent years talking to urologists, doing user programs, getting research reports and spending up large. It is time for a "show me the money" moment.

[Balance]

Looking forward to hearing the latest excuse. The current environment seems tailor made for non contact testing, even without LCD. They have spent years talking to urologists, doing user programs, getting research reports and spending up large. It is time for a "show me the money" moment.

Haha - usually it is the other way with PEB asking their hostage underwriting institutional shareholders to front up with the money! :t_up:

[kiwidollabill]

FY results on friday

Any predictions.....?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

FY results on friday

Any predictions.....?

More stories about how close they are.

[Sideshow Bob]

More stories about how close they are.

Should be able to cut/paste from 2011 announcement and save some communication consultant costs.....:laugh:

[kiwidollabill]

Still pretty lackluster, burning more, will need another raise within a year.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353944

No mentions of KP any more...

[silverblizzard888]

Perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy at work here

[kiwidollabill]

Still priced at 20x sales revenue....

Nah...

[Sideshow Bob]

Man is that right? I literally think I was at that shareholders meeting and it was the final straw.... sold my remaining shares straight after. I haven’t looked at the company since. Are they still struggling? Back then they had gone on a SP tear, but the then CFO had touted 10s if thousands of tests before then selling some of his holdings... please tell me that guy is gone?

Sure they've had more than 1 CFO since then..... :scared:

Looks like the share price was around 15-25c with 172m shares on issue. Now 12c, with only 690m on issue!! How many capital raises in that time!!

[whatsup]

Sure they've had more than 1 CFO since then..... :scared:

Looks like the share price was around 15-25c with 172m shares on issue. Now 12c, with only 690m on issue!! How many capital raises in that time!!


How about every year !!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Tests up 7% to 16,861. Still waiting for the 'tens of thousands' of tests.

They are pretty downbeat in their outlook compared to previous years. Almost lights out unless someone wants to buy the technology.

[Dentie]

They are pretty downbeat in their outlook compared to previous years.

They have finally learned their lesson on having optimistic outlooks Johnny....seems they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. They are dealing in the US market (which was a huge mistake in my view by the way!!) and, despite having a top level scientifically proven product, they are beholden to their whims and prejudices. Mind you, to be fair, they do seem to be struggling with an "unprecedented" occurrence.

The Kiwi way is to "punch above your weight" by having a very conservative & downcast forward guidance (with your head held low to show humility) in order to have plenty of room to beat expectations ... thereby preventing the tall poppy brigade.

[whatsup]

Why the interest today UP 5% , interesting , is it a ramp ready for a C R or something else ?

[Balance]

Why the interest today UP 5% , interesting , is it a ramp ready for a C R or something else ?

OMG!

You think they may be on the verge of getting the LCD in the US? :eek2:

In which case, PEB at 14.5c is probably the bargain of the century! :p

[whatsup]

Why the interest today UP 5% , interesting , is it a ramp ready for a C R or something else ?

.15 and climbing highest price since Nov 2019 , is there anything out there ?

[Sideshow Bob]

.15 and climbing highest price since Nov 2019 , is there anything out there ?

Not much horse racing on today. The punters down at the TAB got the hot tip from the taxi driver, who said it everything else had flown higher, and this was the last cab on the rank to take off.....

[Jay]

Not much horse racing on today. The punters down at the TAB got the hot tip from the taxi driver, who said it everything else had flown higher, and this was the last cab on the rank to take off.....
.....:D.....

[etrader]

.....:D.....
Have check PEB for years with a few shares sitting there from the crazy old days, certainly seems they’re having a nice run up and note today was biggest volume in months.

Above you mentioned a potential announcement are you talking when the insurance companies agree to pay it out ? I did the stats a while back and it looks there’s around $4 million worth of un charged CX testing done that should convert to cashflow

[baaantom]

CMS tests to date are at 21,789 x $760 = $16.6m USD ($10m NZD) up for negotiation.

[pierre]

CMS tests to date are at 21,789 x $760 = $16.6m USD ($10m NZD) up for negotiation.

I think you've got your currency conversion back to front mate. USD16.6m currently equals about NZD25.5m.

A nice little top up - if it ever comes to fruition - but like most things with PEB, the prospects are bright but the reality is pretty dim.

[baaantom]

I think you've got your currency conversion back to front mate. USD16.6m currently equals about NZD25.5m.

A nice little top up - if it ever comes to fruition - but like most things with PEB, the prospects are bright but the reality is pretty dim.

Ahhh thats embarrassing:eek2: I guess without LCD inclusion, there isn't much reality at all. With inclusion in the US guidelines plus the product code and national price (which usually come AFTER an LCD) I feel they are likely to get the LCD this year. The backstop date to hear from their LCD contractor is August so we should hear something by then.

[Balance]

Ahhh thats embarrassing:eek2: I guess without LCD inclusion, there isn't much reality at all. With inclusion in the US guidelines plus the product code and national price (which usually come AFTER an LCD) I feel they are likely to get the LCD this year. The backstop date to hear from their LCD contractor is August so we should hear something by then.

I would concede that if they get LCD, PEB at 14.5c is probably the cheapest stock on the market today.

[BigBob]

I would concede that when they get LCD, PEB at 14.5c is probably the cheapest stock on the market today.

There...! Fixed that for you... ;-)

[baaantom]

There...! Fixed that for you... ;-)

Exactly. I would also add to my comments above that there most recent clinical utility evidence is very compelling. Compelling enough for most of the NZ District Health Boards to add the suite of tests into their standard practice.

[BigBob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354817

Maybe that's why it's been inching upwards lately... 🙂

[Balance]

Up 50% on this news! :eek2:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354817

Cancer diagnostics company, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX: PEB) and US healthcare provider, Kaiser Permanente, have reached agreement for the commercial use of Pacific Edge’s Cxbladder tests.

Kaiser Permanente has approved the commercial use of Cxbladder by their urologists for patients being evaluated for bladder cancer.

[Minerbarejet]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354817

Maybe that's why it's been inching upwards lately... 
Not bad for dead in the water.

[Balance]

Not bad for dead in the water.

Onwards and forwards to $1.00, you reckon?:D

[RTM]

Who knows ?
But if they can succeed...then this is a great success for New Zealand Inc.
Although I am no longer a holder... I really hope they do well.

[pierre]

Up 50% on this news! :eek2:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354817

Cancer diagnostics company, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX: PEB) and US healthcare provider, Kaiser Permanente, have reached agreement for the commercial use of Pacific Edge’s Cxbladder tests.

Kaiser Permanente has approved the commercial use of Cxbladder by their urologists for patients being evaluated for bladder cancer.

Hmmm. Maybe someone having Humble Pie for dinner tonight?

[Arthur]

Almost 5 years to the day since KP commenced the user program. Maybe LCD will be a thing after all. KP could be 3 times the NZ market, but the main thing is the signal they sent to the fence sitters. Well done those who kept the faith.

[davflaws]

Hmmm. Maybe someone having Humble Pie for dinner tonight?

You'd have to be totally unbalanced to even dream of that.

[pierre]

You'd have to be totally unbalanced to even dream of that.

I know.:)

The tone does seem to have become a little more even over recent times so maybe just a small slice will suffice. He can save the rest of the pie till the LCD decision is announced.

[Sideshow Bob]

Good on them that they have finally got something over the line.

[kiwidollabill]

Congrats to them, so much to build up to this, now they need to execute on the opportunity....

[Balance]

You'd have to be totally unbalanced to even dream of that.

Where are humble pies sold?

[Arthur]

Market Cap is $180 million, so alot of built in blue sky. Hopefully justified as a just bought back a small position. This years capital raise might be easier to get over the line.

[Arthur]

Where are humble pies sold?

https://www.facebook.com/eathumblepie/ they are good too.

[Skene]

Congratulations to PEB & all shareholders, patience has paid off.

Question though: even with this announcement its worth zero in cash flow until the LCD is approved, right?

FY20 results show a cash burn of $19m PA and ~$15m cash on hand (including short term deposits)... so unless the LCD approval is around the corner, the chance of another capital raise is strong?

[kiwidollabill]

Have they ever published the size of the KP pie..... 12M patients, prevelence of 12.0 per 100,000 (both sexes, age standardised), thats only 1440 with it (current, and to be diagnosed). Appreciate alot more will be tested but thats not quite the 'tens of 1000 of tests'?

[pierre]

Where are humble pies sold?

Never seen one in a shop - probably mostly baked at home I guess. :)

Anyway - all is forgiven. The news is great for PEB and augurs well for the future. It will need to - I've been holding patiently waiting for this day, and probably like many others, at today's SP am still underwater.

I hope your "onwards and forwards to $1.00" comes true soon - though I will be very happy at 60cents.

[RGR367]

Where are humble pies sold?

So at what price is this humble pie for us to re-taste (or re-enter) then :cool:

[whatsup]

Why the interest today UP 5% , interesting , is it a ramp ready for a C R or something else ?

Good observation leading to todays ann, well done me !

[whatsup]

OMG!

You think they may be on the verge of getting the LCD in the US? :eek2:

In which case, PEB at 14.5c is probably the bargain of the century! :p

Bal, you were sort of correct ( for a change ) !!

[whatsup]

Congratulations to PEB & all shareholders, patience has paid off.

Question though: even with this announcement its worth zero in cash flow until the LCD is approved, right?

FY20 results show a cash burn of $19m PA and ~$15m cash on hand (including short term deposits)... so unless the LCD approval is around the corner, the chance of another capital raise is strong?

Skene, if that were the case the C P would have 100% take up .

[Sideshow Bob]

Onwards and forwards to $1.00, you reckon?:D

Did you buy in this morning?? :blink:

[Balance]

Did you buy in this morning?? :blink:

No.

If PEB gets the LCD, that would be the real game changer imo.

Then, I would really have to swallow some humble pie - probably with butter chicken fillings & consider buying on the day.

[Minerbarejet]

For some back of the envelope stuff,
329m US Citizens
KPs share 12m
329 divided by 12 = 27
Therefore KPs share of patients is 1/27th

Number of Patients being monitored in the US at any given point 800,000
KPs share 1/27 of 800,000
29000 tests min times 1100 NZD
$31,000,000 NZD
Thats just KP
Thats just Monitor
Thats just 1 test each P.A.

Could come in handy, I reckon.
Potential estimate only
E&OE

[kiwidollabill]

For some back of the envelope stuff,
329m US Citizens
KPs share 12m
329 divided by 12 = 27
Therefore KPs share of patients is 1/27th

Number of Patients being monitored in the US at any given point 800,000
KPs share 1/27 of 800,000
29000 tests min times 1100 NZD
$31,000,000 NZD
Thats just KP
Thats just Monitor
Thats just 1 test each P.A.

Could come in handy, I reckon.
Potential estimate only
E&OE

Great, but isnt it 80,000 from PEB own numbers, or is that the wrong figure? https://www.cxbladder.com/nz/blog/the-importance-of-bladder-cancer-monitoring-and-surveillance/

[psychic]

Great, but isnt it 80,000 from PEB own numbers, or is that the wrong figure? https://www.cxbladder.com/nz/blog/the-importance-of-bladder-cancer-monitoring-and-surveillance/

Theres about 80,000 new cases of Bladder Cancer each year in the US, so many more being monitored.

Great news for Pacific Edge, but dunno if she's yet worth the MCAP $158m at .22?
Other Insurers will likely follow KP's lead, worth watching.

[Minerbarejet]

Great, but isnt it 80,000 from PEB own numbers, or is that the wrong figure? https://www.cxbladder.com/nz/blog/the-importance-of-bladder-cancer-monitoring-and-surveillance/

From the above link
Annually, over 80,000 individuals (https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/transcripts/1535_bladder-cancer-your-questions-answered) in the U.S. receive a bladder cancer diagnosis.

The 800,000 are patients who have had a diagnosis, undergone treatment and are being monitored for any recurrence.
This 800,000 is added to each year by 80,000 and subtracted by around the same number due to full clearance from the effects.
Given the age bracket some will pass on as well from other causes.
Cheers
Miner

[kiwidollabill]

^Great, the next 12 months should be really interesting then...

[Longhaul]

Other Insurers will likely follow KP's lead, worth watching.

I have the same opinion. Covid may also be having an influence on the decisions of health bosses. Why bring a patient in for a physical exam when they can do it remotely and avoid high risk environments.

I hope this major endorsement from KP provides a serious boost to uptake from other urologists (who I imagine a very risk averse in the litigious USA).

Disc. have not owned PEB for a few years, but back in today.

[RGR367]

So at what price is this humble pie for us to re-taste (or re-enter) then :cool:

Never mind. Back in the register again at .24c acquisition today.

[nevchev]

There will be some happy punters tonight with this announcement.Well done those who kept the faith.Thought it would have gone higher today but will take some time to digest before the market wakes to the potential here.GLTA

[jonu]

Does Kaiser's approval trigger payment for the tests that they have had gratis until now? I recall discussion around this some time ago. If so would be a nice little cash injection in itself.

[Brain]

Kaisers approval means that all things considered Kaiser think they will be able to make a buck out of it. On that basis other insurers will follow. I decided to rejoin the register today after a long absence.

[nevchev]

Kaisers approval means that all things considered Kaiser think they will be able to make a buck out of it. On that basis other insurers will follow. I decided to rejoin the register today after a long absence.

How did you go first time round?Seems to be alot of bad blood with PEB but thats water under the bridge.Reading from a few pagers back one would have thought they were in their death throws.North America is a huge market and i think this journey has just begun

[RupertBear]

I wonder how many long suffering shareholders took the opportunity to sell down today. :confused: I know I did. This has been one of my worst share purchases ever, only eclipsed by Wynyard. So I took the opportunity to sell down half my holdings. And yes I know this may be the beginning of something big and it just goes up and up, but it could just as easily fizzle out and go down again. So I am finally out of the red and into the green with this one. :D

[pierre]

How did you go first time round?Seems to be alot of bad blood with PEB but thats water under the bridge.Reading from a few pagers back one would have thought they were in their death throws.North America is a huge market and i think this journey has just begun

Yep. A journey of 1000 miles starts with a single step as the old saying goes.

This deal with KP will definitely be the start of a long and profitable journey into the US medical system, then into other markets as well.

DISCL: Holder since 2012.

[nevchev]

Yep. A journey of 1000 miles starts with a single step as the old saying goes.

This deal with KP will definitely be the start of a long and profitable journey into the US medical system, then into other markets as well.

DISCL: Holder since 2012.
You must have the patience of Jobe pierre,Between PEB and BLT i would have been pulling my hair out.Both seem to be coming right and there is no substitute for experience which i think they both have in spades.Well done

[Balance]

Yep. A journey of 1000 miles starts with a single step as the old saying goes.

This deal with KP will definitely be the start of a long and profitable journey into the US medical system, then into other markets as well.

DISCL: Holder since 2012.

Ah - back to the dreams many had when the sp spiked to $1.70 in 2013 and PEB was going to deliver $100m revenues and become a billion dollar (or two) company.

[barney]

It's been a long slow journey but they are finally getting there. As David Darling once said about the NZ DHBs "its like wading through treacle."

He also mentioned on the full year results conference call a few weeks ago that once they had set up an agreement with the Canterbury DHB , the overhead cost to PEB is very low. No sales input needed and in fact, they only need to have contact with the DHB about twice a year. No doubt the same will happen with Kaiser and other big players.

When you think of how long this has taken and the obstacles PEB have had to overcome, it means any competition is a long way behind.

[pierre]

You must have the patience of Jobe pierre,Between PEB and BLT i would have been pulling my hair out.Both seem to be coming right and there is no substitute for experience which i think they both have in spades.Well done

Thanks Nev. I am a patient investor and prepared to ride the waves with companies I believe in. I've been accumulating BLT since 2005 and now that they're getting commercial traction that investment is treating me very well.
Im still well underwater with PEB but with this endorsement from KP I expect that situation to change significantly over the next 12-24 months. I can wait.

[Brain]

How did you go first time round?Seems to be alot of bad blood with PEB but thats water under the bridge.Reading from a few pagers back one would have thought they were in their death throws.North America is a huge market and i think this journey has just begun

I lost a couple of grand so I got off lightly. That’s the thing about this sharemarket game people go off stocks and would not touch them with a 40 foot barge pole because they lost money. The past is the past and if the game has changed which I think it has then investors should look at the company with fresh eyes. Nothing would make me more happy then this company becoming very successful and making all investors a shed load of money. I hope this company goes from strength to strength and investors will not be making money at the expense of others which is what happens in the trading on cycles environment.

It is very interesting reading the comments on this thread. I suspect Balance is even looking at this one with renewed interest.

[pierre]

I lost a couple of grand so I got off lightly. That’s the thing about this sharemarket game people go off stocks and would not touch them with a 40 foot barge pole because they lost money. The past is the past and if the game has changed which I think it has then investors should look at the company with fresh eyes. Nothing would make me more happy then this company becoming very successful and making all investors a shed load of money. I hope this company goes from strength to strength and investors will not be making money at the expense of others which is what happens in the trading on cycles environment.

It is very interesting reading the comments on this thread. I suspect Balance is even looking at this one with renewed interest.

I haven't lost a cent with PEB because I've never sold a share. It's been a bit of a white-knuckle ride though and plenty of naysayers
with loud and frequently repeated negativity to cope with as well.
The company is not out of the woods yet, but acceptance by KP is sure to be the catalyst for more positive news over the next year or two.

[Baa_Baa]

PEB has a testing business model that requires tests to be shipped to home base, tested, then the results returned. Does PEB have the capacity to increase testing volume and is the return to home base model sustainable it testing demand increases substantially?

The money flows when the testing ramps up, shareholders need to focus on capacity and capability to meet testing demand, especially now when it looks like demand could increase significantly assuming final hurdles are overcome.

Lots of water left to go under the bridge imo, I’m not breaking out the champagne until I see the company doing something to meet ‘real’ sustained demand, not just a promise of demand, especially with a scaled testing model that is both unstated and on face value unable to scale to meet any significant growth in demand. This is the crux of moving from science to business. Whether PEB have the wherewithal to manage the transition from great science to successful business is far from proven.

Anyway, still great news and long overdue for patient shareholders, nice to see something really encouraging happen for a welcome change from years of disappointment.

Gltah

[Balance]

Good they replied.

I have some feedback from Florida where my biomed contact works and he tends to agree with you re payment from CMS once LCD inclusion is obtained.

A year ago.

Time drags on when you hold PEB?

Anyway, if they get LCD, there could be another 100% up day for the long suffering shareholders of PEB!

[etrader]

As we move from research development to commercialisation would it be wise to bring in a more business focused leader and put David head of research as he’s very talented on that front.

The new deal equals around 3% of the USA population and from memory that had signed up other firms many years ago.

How do we reduce the cash burn as $19 mill a year gives us 8 months left if those leads don’t yet monetise.

[Waltzing]

sold out at a profit years ago... did something just happen?

[zs_cecil]

PEB has a testing business model that requires tests to be shipped to home base, tested, then the results returned. Does PEB have the capacity to increase testing volume and is the return to home base model sustainable it testing demand increases substantially?

The money flows when the testing ramps up, shareholders need to focus on capacity and capability to meet testing demand, especially now when it looks like demand could increase significantly assuming final hurdles are overcome.

Lots of water left to go under the bridge imo, I’m not breaking out the champagne until I see the company doing something to meet ‘real’ sustained demand, not just a promise of demand, especially with a scaled testing model that is both unstated and on face value unable to scale to meet any significant growth in demand. This is the crux of moving from science to business. Whether PEB have the wherewithal to manage the transition from great science to successful business is far from proven.

Anyway, still great news and long overdue for patient shareholders, nice to see something really encouraging happen for a welcome change from years of disappointment.

Gltah

The US lab has a capacity of 260,000 tests a year according to an announcement of US laboratory completion in 2012. I am not sure what it really means but at least the facilities are ready. I guess it is more of a question whether PEB are capable to meet the testing demand by hiring more staff in a short time or handling more testing delivery from home in time.

[Leftfield]

I haven't lost a cent with PEB because I've never sold a share. It's been a bit of a white-knuckle ride though and plenty of naysayers
......

Mmmm while I admire your perseverance with PEB Pierre, an economist would argue that you have indeed lost money because you are ignoring the 'opportunity cost' or devaluation effect of having your money tied up in a non-performing asset over (say) the last 5 years.

This chart compares the difference if you had simply taken your PEB money 5 years ago and placed it in an average NZX50 fund. The Blue line at the bottom of the chart is PEB and reflects considerable opportunity cost that you are yet to recoup.

11703

So yes, you may not have lost 'physical money', but you are well short of getting an adequate return on it and could have done much better having your money elsewhere.

That said, I sincerely hope things improve for PEB holders. Certainly those who purchased at recent 'lows' of 6 to 10c have done v well.

[Balance]

Mmmm while I admire your perseverance with PEB Pierre, an economist would argue that you have indeed lost money because you are ignoring the 'opportunity cost' or devaluation effect of having your money tied up in a non-performing asset over (say) the last 5 years.

So yes, you may not have lost 'physical money', but you are well short of getting an adequate return on it and could have done much better having your money elsewhere.

That said, I sincerely hope things improve for PEB holders. Certainly those who purchased at recent 'lows' of 6 to 10c have done v well.

Good perspective, LF, on what an appallingly bad investment PEB has been. At one point, it ‘underperformed’ the NZ market by 200%.

I take my hat off to those who have the kind of fortitude ( and a heavy dose of foolishness as well imo) to stick with such a bad investment for such an extended period.

So ok - let’s evaluate where PEB so may go now that it has finally delivered (after 5 years) on one very significant customer being KP.

Question then - how really significant is KP?

[nevchev]

Good perspective, LF, on what an appallingly bad investment PEB has been. At one point, it ‘underperformed’ the NZ market by 200%.

I take my hat off to those who have the kind of fortitude ( and a heavy dose of foolishness as well imo) to stick with such a bad investment for such an extended period.

So ok - let’s evaluate where PEB so may go now that it has finally delivered (after 5 years) on one very significant customer being KP.

Question then - how really significant is KP?
Its an old article but i think it shows intention to eliminate invasive testing


May 4, 2011

Invasive urinary tract cancer tests may have minimal value

PASADENA Calif. — Hematuria, or blood in the urine, may trigger a battery of tests for urinary tract cancer that are invasive and can unnecessarily expose patients to radiation, yet the procedures contribute little to the diagnosis, according to a study by Kaiser Permanente Southern California’s Department of Research & Evaluation published in the May issue of the Journal of Urology.
Kaiser Permanente Southern California’s current practice guidelines are the same as the recommendations of the American Urological Association. Both advise that patients should be evaluated for urinary tract cancer if they have two urinalysis tests showing microscopic evidence of blood in the urine. The standard of care includes a workup with kidney imaging, usually a multi-phase CT scan, which is similar to having three X-rays, and an office-based procedure where a fiber-optic camera is used to visualize the inside of the bladder. The Canadian Urological Association also makes the same recommendations for patients over the age of 40. Neither the American nor Canadian recommendations have been tested in a large population-based study. The American Cancer Society estimates that in 2010, there were 131,260 newly diagnosed cases of urinary tract cancer and 28,550 deaths from the disease.
“Using information in our electronic medical records, we found an extremely low incidence of urinary tract cancer in patients with microscopic evidence of blood in their urine, suggesting that this radiation exposure and expensive workups may not be necessary for many of these individuals,” said study lead author Howard Jung, MD, a urology fellow, and Department of Urology physician/researcher at the Kaiser Permanente Los Angeles Medical Center in California.
The purpose of this population-based study was to determine the proportion of patients with hematuria who were ultimately diagnosed with urinary tract cancer and to establish the risk of cancer by age, sex and degree of hematuria. For the study, the electronic health records of 309,402 health plan members with microscopic hematuria, or blood in the urine on microscopic urinalysis, during 2004 and 2005 were reviewed through 2008 to determine who was diagnosed with urinary tract cancer by 2008.
The incidence of urinary tract cancer over three years was 4.3 per 1,000 patients with hematuria. “We found that patients who were older, male and with more red blood cells in a high-powered microscopic field were much more likely to develop urinary tract cancer,” said Dr. Jung. “Compared to the American Urological Association approach, an alternative approach of only evaluating patients over the age of 40 years with at least one urinalysis with 25 red blood cells in a high-powered microscopic field would have spared 25,917 evaluations with the use of radiation, as well as have detected six more cases of urinary tract cancer. Compared to the Canadian Urological Association approach, it could have spared 11,584 evaluations, while detecting 16 more cases of urinary tract cancer.”
“This study provides important real-world information about the association of hematuria in microscopic urinalysis and urinary tract cancer,” said Dr. Jung. “Rigorous protocols are needed to re-evaluate the best policy recommendations, and target specific populations that are at risk of being diagnosed with urinary tract cancer.” Kaiser Permanente is planning to continue this research with a prospective study.
Co-authors of the paper include Howard Jung, MD, and Joseph M. Gleason, MD, of the Kaiser Permanente Los Angeles Medical Center, Department of Urology; Ronald K. Loo, MD, and Hetal S. Patel, MD, of the Kaiser Permanente Downey Medical Center, Department of Urology; and Jeff M. Slezak, MS, and Steven J. Jacobsen, MD, PhD, with the Kaiser Permanente Southern California Department of Research & Evaluation.

[nevchev]

Kaiser Permanente is an innovation leader. As one of the nation’s largest and most productive research institutions with one of the world’s largest medical data sets and our advanced digital technology, we are in the forefront of delivering proactive health care for healthier lives.

[pierre]

I totally get and understand the opportunity cost argument - perfectly valid if you're a trader. However, it does presume an individual can correctly time the market, knowing when to get in and when to get out. It's easy to implement with 20/20 hindsight but I don't profess to have that capability.

I'm a long-term investor and generally buy to hold in businesses I believe in. Unless there's a totally compelling reason, I seldom sell. I don't sell shares in my own company in a bad year - or buy more in a good year either. Patience has paid off handsomely over the years - but not with every individual investment.

PEB has certainly been a test of faith - and the test is not yet over - but I believe the investment will pay off over the coming 2-3 years, especially now the KP deal is done.

I always have 5-6% of my substantial portfolio in the higher risk category just for fun and to keep my nerves on edge. PEB (now at 3% after yesterday's move), SKO and a couple of dud Aussie oilers currently are sufficient for the purpose.

Everyone has their own investment strategy. That's mine and it has mostly worked well for me since I made my first share market investment about 50 years ago.

[Drew95]

Good perspective, LF, on what an appallingly bad investment PEB has been. At one point, it ‘underperformed’ the NZ market by 200%.

I take my hat off to those who have the kind of fortitude ( and a heavy dose of foolishness as well imo) to stick with such a bad investment for such an extended period.

So ok - let’s evaluate where PEB so may go now that it has finally delivered (after 5 years) on one very significant customer being KP.

Question then - how really significant is KP?

I have watched PEB quite closely for probably a decade or so. From time to time I have invested. And lost money. I see KP as the 'Keystone' event. As I understand it KP is an extremely well respected organisation. I suspect that now that KP is on board, LCD will definitely follow. If PEB get LCD, they may get back $20 million or more in unpaid tests (no more cap raises?). And having KP and LCD will make a lot of other doors much easier to open. With PEB it has always been as much 'how fast will it happen?' as it has been "will it happen?". I think someone quoted DD as saying "Its like wading through treacle". KP will 'thin down the treacle' and easier to wade through. Things will start to happen a bit faster now. I am back on the train. Is that gravy I smell?

[whatsup]

Continueing yesterdays slight rise, imo this will happen as word gets out, once there are others who follow Kaiser there will be a big price jump as confirmation of its bladder process, we are not out of the woods yet, just in a clearing !!

[Schrodinger]

So what part of the announcement mentions will they actually sell the tests once approved. I think someone has to recommend it and if thats the case what makes you think PEB will be that one? I would think they have a group of options. People are being naive if they think PEB is the only option.

Let me see, spend $25M to make $4.3M revenue, nice business model.

[whatsup]

So what part of the announcement mentions will they actually sell the tests once approved. I think someone has to recommend it and if thats the case what makes you think PEB will be that one? I would think they have a group of options. People are being naive if they think PEB is the only option.

Let me see, spend $25M to make $4.3M revenue, nice business model.


Sch----, heard of the " valley of death ? "

[etrader]

With just under 8 million shares traded today that’s a good lift in volume again.

My key takeaways would be.

Appoint a commercial ceo to take it next level and leave DD to head the research side.
Reduce cash burn
Monetise the new deal and get subsequent deals from more insurance firms.
Possibly dual list on asx

Just my ideas

[nevchev]

Continueing yesterdays slight rise, imo this will happen as word gets out, once there are others who follow Kaiser there will be a big price jump as confirmation of its bladder process, we are not out of the woods yet, just in a clearing !!

When those who want out are out and others wake up to the potential i think we will see a gradual lift untill LCD is granted at which point this could become a market darling(no pun intended) again.Lots of upside possible but no guarantee's

[kiwidollabill]

With just under 8 million shares traded today that’s a good lift in volume again.

My key takeaways would be.

Appoint a commercial ceo to take it next level and leave DD to head the research side.
Reduce cash burn
Monetise the new deal and get subsequent deals from more insurance firms.
Possibly dual list on asx

Just my ideas

Appoint a US based CEO? Kinda needed in the situation of zero travel...

Surely a convo at the BoD table...

[Longhaul]

Does anyone think this relates to CxBladder in an LCD meeting held 17 June 2020? Link:https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Coverage/DeterminationProcess/LCDs

[barney]

Appoint a US based CEO? Kinda needed in the situation of zero travel...

Surely a convo at the BoD table...

Jackie Walker is the CEO for the US operations of Pacific Edge.

[baaantom]

Does anyone think this relates to CxBladder in an LCD meeting held 17 June 2020? Link:https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Coverage/DeterminationProcess/LCDs

No, "WPS/J5, J8" isn't the jurisdiction CxBladder falls under. They fall under Novitas/JL.

[Balance]

No, "WPS/J5, J8" isn't the jurisdiction CxBladder falls under. They fall under Novitas/JL.

Imagine if it had been CxBladder!

Even I will have to buy a few for the ride. Gulp. 🙈

[Leftfield]

.........Even I will have to buy a few for the ride. Gulp. 

Go on...... you know you really want to! ;)

[Minerbarejet]

30s seem to be getting swallowed up, Balance.
Just letting you know. :)

[Balance]

30s seem to be getting swallowed up, Balance.
Just letting you know. :)

Thanks.

I will wait for the LCD inclusion.

Then one can be confident that there's only upside from thereon in.

[nevchev]

Imagine if it had been CxBladder!

Even I will have to buy a few for the ride. Gulp. 🙈

Plenty of meetings going on with Novitas.Question is are we amongst them.cheers

[Longhaul]

No, "WPS/J5, J8" isn't the jurisdiction CxBladder falls under. They fall under Novitas/JL.

Thanks for that. I found interesting information (https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/details/lcd-details.aspx?LCDId=38388&ContrId=322&ver=13&ContrVer=1&CntrctrSelected=322*1&Cntrctr=322&s=38&DocType=1&bc=AAgAAAIAAAAA&) about CxBladder's lack of inclusion in the LCD that may be worth comparing to the announcement in Feb (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348274).

"CxBladder

The literature submitted for the requested addition of the CxBladder panel was carefully reviewed. After consideration of the literature, NCCN rating, and relevance to the Medicare population, the CxBladder panel will continue to be non-covered at this time. The molecular/genomic testing mentioned in the NCCN Guidelines for Bladder cancer shared no commonality in the CxBladder test and the genetic alterations that should be included by NCCN guidelines. Additionally, those genomic/molecular tests mentioned in the NCCN guidelines only achieved a 2B level of recommendation. Further, the clinical utility and clinical validity was not supported in the literature and was not generalizable to the Medicare population."

I am pretty sure this LCD info was released late 2019, but can't see the reference to a date on the page.

If this is the case, what is stated above about the NCCN guidelines - "the NCCN Guidelines for Bladder cancer shared no commonality in the CxBladder test" - would be a little strange since in this news release earlier in 2019 (https://www.cxbladder.com/us/news/2019/cxbladder-included-in-the-latest-nccn-bladder-cancer-guidelines-in-the-usa/), PEB says CxBladder was referenced by name in the NCCN guidelines.

If anyone has more insights, I would love to hear your thoughts.

For now, I am left a little confused and this is all well above my pay grade.

[nevchev]

This from January
CMS coverage pending

CMS coverage pending
Pacific Edge 6 January 2020 Outlook
Download PDF
Company outlook
Healthcare equipment
& services
6 January 2020
Business description
Pacific Edge develops and sells a portfolio of molecular diagnostic tests based on biomarkers for the early detection and management of cancer. Tests utilising its Cxbladder technology for detecting and monitoring bladder cancer are sold in the US, New Zealand, Australia and Singapore.
Next events
LCD inclusion
Q2 CY20
Analysts
Maxim Jacobs
+1 646 653 7027
Wiktoria O’Hare
+1 646 653 7028
healthcare@edisongroup.com
Edison profile page
Pacific Edge is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited
Pacific Edge continues to make progress commercialising its Cxbladder suite of bladder cancer diagnostics products, with three of the four Cxbladder tests available in the US market. Cxbladder was recently included in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines for bladder cancer. The company also submitted an updated evidence dossier to its Medicare Administrative Contractor (MAC), which may decide in Q2 CY20 whether Cxbladder will be included in a Local Coverage Determination (LCD) by the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). This will be a key milestone for the company as approximately 47% of US lab throughput for the company is for patients covered by CMS.

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Getting closer to CMS reimbursement
Pacific Edge has completed two of the three components necessary for national reimbursement in the US, namely CPT codes and a national price of US$760 per test. The final milestone is to gain inclusion in an LCD, which would enable consistent payments from CMS (which covers patients representing about 47% of US lab throughput for Cxbladder tests) and likely be transformational for the company from a test adoption, revenue and cash flow standpoint.
Cxbladder sales increased 12.4% in H120
The company reported an increase in Cxbladder sales of 12.4% in the first half of FY20 with a 10.1% increase in total laboratory throughput. Sales in the rest of the world (primarily Australia, New Zealand and Singapore) were particularly strong and were up 53.6% compared to the same period last year.

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks for that. I found interesting information (https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/details/lcd-details.aspx?LCDId=38388&ContrId=322&ver=13&ContrVer=1&CntrctrSelected=322*1&Cntrctr=322&s=38&DocType=1&bc=AAgAAAIAAAAA&) about CxBladder's lack of inclusion in the LCD that may be worth comparing to the announcement in Feb (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348274).

"CxBladder

The literature submitted for the requested addition of the CxBladder panel was carefully reviewed. After consideration of the literature, NCCN rating, and relevance to the Medicare population, the CxBladder panel will continue to be non-covered at this time. The molecular/genomic testing mentioned in the NCCN Guidelines for Bladder cancer shared no commonality in the CxBladder test and the genetic alterations that should be included by NCCN guidelines. Additionally, those genomic/molecular tests mentioned in the NCCN guidelines only achieved a 2B level of recommendation. Further, the clinical utility and clinical validity was not supported in the literature and was not generalizable to the Medicare population."

I am pretty sure this LCD info was released late 2019, but can't see the reference to a date on the page.

If this is the case, what is stated above about the NCCN guidelines - "the NCCN Guidelines for Bladder cancer shared no commonality in the CxBladder test" - would be a little strange since in this news release earlier in 2019 (https://www.cxbladder.com/us/news/2019/cxbladder-included-in-the-latest-nccn-bladder-cancer-guidelines-in-the-usa/), PEB says CxBladder was referenced by name in the NCCN guidelines.

If anyone has more insights, I would love to hear your thoughts.

For now, I am left a little confused and this is all well above my pay grade.

Above mine as well but in the news release in 2019 right down the bottom is

Last Updated: 24 Apr 2020 01:53 am

So obviously still considered valid.
Begs the question as to what was updated, if anything.
Needs clearing up.

[moadoc]

Thanks for that. I found interesting information (https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/details/lcd-details.aspx?LCDId=38388&ContrId=322&ver=13&ContrVer=1&CntrctrSelected=322*1&Cntrctr=322&s=38&DocType=1&bc=AAgAAAIAAAAA&) about CxBladder's lack of inclusion in the LCD that may be worth comparing to the announcement in Feb (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348274).

"CxBladder

The literature submitted for the requested addition of the CxBladder panel was carefully reviewed. After consideration of the literature, NCCN rating, and relevance to the Medicare population, the CxBladder panel will continue to be non-covered at this time. The molecular/genomic testing mentioned in the NCCN Guidelines for Bladder cancer shared no commonality in the CxBladder test and the genetic alterations that should be included by NCCN guidelines. Additionally, those genomic/molecular tests mentioned in the NCCN guidelines only achieved a 2B level of recommendation. Further, the clinical utility and clinical validity was not supported in the literature and was not generalizable to the Medicare population."

I am pretty sure this LCD info was released late 2019, but can't see the reference to a date on the page.

If this is the case, what is stated above about the NCCN guidelines - "the NCCN Guidelines for Bladder cancer shared no commonality in the CxBladder test" - would be a little strange since in this news release earlier in 2019 (https://www.cxbladder.com/us/news/2019/cxbladder-included-in-the-latest-nccn-bladder-cancer-guidelines-in-the-usa/), PEB says CxBladder was referenced by name in the NCCN guidelines.

If anyone has more insights, I would love to hear your thoughts.

For now, I am left a little confused and this is all well above my pay grade.


Looking further into this article it would appear to me to be released October 2016.

[bottomfeeder]

Must be another Capital Raising coming up. Still have doubts about the success of PEB. But for those holding good luck for the ride.

[BigBob]

Thanks for that. I found interesting information (https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/details/lcd-details.aspx?LCDId=38388&ContrId=322&ver=13&ContrVer=1&CntrctrSelected=322*1&Cntrctr=322&s=38&DocType=1&bc=AAgAAAIAAAAA&) about CxBladder's lack of inclusion in the LCD that may be worth comparing to the announcement in Feb (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348274).

"CxBladder

The literature submitted for the requested addition of the CxBladder panel was carefully reviewed. After consideration of the literature, NCCN rating, and relevance to the Medicare population, the CxBladder panel will continue to be non-covered at this time. The molecular/genomic testing mentioned in the NCCN Guidelines for Bladder cancer shared no commonality in the CxBladder test and the genetic alterations that should be included by NCCN guidelines. Additionally, those genomic/molecular tests mentioned in the NCCN guidelines only achieved a 2B level of recommendation. Further, the clinical utility and clinical validity was not supported in the literature and was not generalizable to the Medicare population."

I am pretty sure this LCD info was released late 2019, but can't see the reference to a date on the page.

If this is the case, what is stated above about the NCCN guidelines - "the NCCN Guidelines for Bladder cancer shared no commonality in the CxBladder test" - would be a little strange since in this news release earlier in 2019 (https://www.cxbladder.com/us/news/2019/cxbladder-included-in-the-latest-nccn-bladder-cancer-guidelines-in-the-usa/), PEB says CxBladder was referenced by name in the NCCN guidelines.

If anyone has more insights, I would love to hear your thoughts.

For now, I am left a little confused and this is all well above my pay grade.

To me it looks like it's a draft for public review, which was published 31/10/19 with the review process to complete on 15/12/19 (Those dates are at the bottom). It seems that it is unequivocal in not recommending CXBladder for inclusion:

Consistent with the NCCN rating and literature review, the following Biomarker Panel will continue to be considered not medically reasonable and necessary:

CxBladder
NCCN Guidelines 4.201988 Bladder Cancer, for cTa high grade, cT1, and Tis, follow-up is recommended with a urinary cytology and cystoscopy at 3 to 6 month intervals for the first 2 years, and at longer intervals as appropriate thereafter. Imaging of the upper tract should be considered every 1 to 2 years for high-grade tumors (see Follow-up algorithm). Urine molecular tests for urothelial tumor markers are now available.88(p68)

Follow-up urine cytology every 3 months and consider urinary urothelial tumor markers (category 2B) for high risk, non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer at year one and annually up to 10 years and then as clinically indicated. Molecular/genomic testing should include analysis by RT-PCR for FGFR3 or FGFR2, and for FGFR, RGQ.88(p79)

As one can see when molecular/genomic testing mentioned in the NCCN Guidelines Version 4.2019 Bladder cancer, there is no shared commonality in the CxBladder test and the genetic alterations that should be included by NCCN guidelines, and even those mentioned in NCCN guidelines, are a 2B level of recommendation.
Davidson PJ, et al. (2019),89 is an observational cohort study conducted in New Zealand. The addition of CxBT to the routine investigation of hematuria was carried out following consensus between local clinicians. No other change to clinical practice was made and there was no randomization or control group. The review did not require ethical approval, as it constituted monitoring and improvement of usual patient care carried out by the Canterbury DHB.163 No blinding with diagnosis based on histology and cystoscopy. The results were the development of theoretical pathway. The patients were coached in the test and what it meant. This was carried out within one health board district in New Zealand with little follow-up. The limitation is a mandatory protocol pathway and no documented clinical utility, but healthcare insurer utility. The generalizability to the Medicare population was not specified. Seven year mean difference in patients not referred and referred patients with the older group referred to urologist. Nine year medial age difference. Proposed pathway for less than one year of data is not enough data to support a change of decision.
Konety B, et al. (2019),90 is a retrospective study of pooled data from three prospective clinical trials and one real world clinical study in which 1784 patients with hematuria or previously diagnosed UC provided 852 samples. According to the authors, CxBladder ruled out 35% of patients and NPV of 97% compared to 93% for cytology. CxBladder correctly adjudicated all patients diagnosed with UC among those with atypical cytology and equivocal cystoscopy and outperformed cytology for accurately identifying patients who do not have UC.162 The limitation is this was open access and not peer reviewed with a significant conflict of interest by the authors. Clinical utility is not part of this study and was only theorized. The generalizability to the Medicare population was not specified in the original article. However, in the supplemental table 3, the age in each study was given but not in relationship to the findings. The clinical utility was not documented.

The dismissal of CXBladder's relevancy to the NCCN guidelines is pretty strange and a concern to me, and looks to completely contradict the NZX announcement (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337654)

The parent document (the actual LCD - https://tinyurl.com/ya8yfezu) was last updated on 14/11/19, so it looks like these recommendations are still being reviewed or have not been accepted.

Interestingly the actual LCD shows that CXBladder has twice been considered for inclusion and twice been rejected in 2017 and 2018 (change history at the bottom)

[nevchev]

Things may change rapidly now our arrangement with kaiser has come to fruition but do think this needs to be made clear sooner rather than later

[baaantom]

To me it looks like it's a draft for public review, which was published 31/10/19 with the review process to complete on 15/12/19 (Those dates are at the bottom). It seems that it is unequivocal in not recommending CXBladder for inclusion:

Consistent with the NCCN rating and literature review, the following Biomarker Panel will continue to be considered not medically reasonable and necessary:

CxBladder
NCCN Guidelines 4.201988 Bladder Cancer, for cTa high grade, cT1, and Tis, follow-up is recommended with a urinary cytology and cystoscopy at 3 to 6 month intervals for the first 2 years, and at longer intervals as appropriate thereafter. Imaging of the upper tract should be considered every 1 to 2 years for high-grade tumors (see Follow-up algorithm). Urine molecular tests for urothelial tumor markers are now available.88(p68)

Follow-up urine cytology every 3 months and consider urinary urothelial tumor markers (category 2B) for high risk, non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer at year one and annually up to 10 years and then as clinically indicated. Molecular/genomic testing should include analysis by RT-PCR for FGFR3 or FGFR2, and for FGFR, RGQ.88(p79)

As one can see when molecular/genomic testing mentioned in the NCCN Guidelines Version 4.2019 Bladder cancer, there is no shared commonality in the CxBladder test and the genetic alterations that should be included by NCCN guidelines, and even those mentioned in NCCN guidelines, are a 2B level of recommendation.
Davidson PJ, et al. (2019),89 is an observational cohort study conducted in New Zealand. The addition of CxBT to the routine investigation of hematuria was carried out following consensus between local clinicians. No other change to clinical practice was made and there was no randomization or control group. The review did not require ethical approval, as it constituted monitoring and improvement of usual patient care carried out by the Canterbury DHB.163 No blinding with diagnosis based on histology and cystoscopy. The results were the development of theoretical pathway. The patients were coached in the test and what it meant. This was carried out within one health board district in New Zealand with little follow-up. The limitation is a mandatory protocol pathway and no documented clinical utility, but healthcare insurer utility. The generalizability to the Medicare population was not specified. Seven year mean difference in patients not referred and referred patients with the older group referred to urologist. Nine year medial age difference. Proposed pathway for less than one year of data is not enough data to support a change of decision.
Konety B, et al. (2019),90 is a retrospective study of pooled data from three prospective clinical trials and one real world clinical study in which 1784 patients with hematuria or previously diagnosed UC provided 852 samples. According to the authors, CxBladder ruled out 35% of patients and NPV of 97% compared to 93% for cytology. CxBladder correctly adjudicated all patients diagnosed with UC among those with atypical cytology and equivocal cystoscopy and outperformed cytology for accurately identifying patients who do not have UC.162 The limitation is this was open access and not peer reviewed with a significant conflict of interest by the authors. Clinical utility is not part of this study and was only theorized. The generalizability to the Medicare population was not specified in the original article. However, in the supplemental table 3, the age in each study was given but not in relationship to the findings. The clinical utility was not documented.

The dismissal of CXBladder's relevancy to the NCCN guidelines is pretty strange and a concern to me, and looks to completely contradict the NZX announcement (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337654)

The parent document (the actual LCD - https://tinyurl.com/ya8yfezu) was last updated on 14/11/19, so it looks like these recommendations are still being reviewed or have not been accepted.

Interestingly the actual LCD shows that CXBladder has twice been considered for inclusion and twice been rejected in 2017 and 2018 (change history at the bottom)


Interesting that they don't mention the Georgieva (2019) study in their discussions. Looks to be dated Dec 2019 so couldn't have included the Madhusudan (2020) study although David D did say they had successfully submitted that study to the evidence dossier with Novitas for review.

David also mentioned they submitted the evidence dossier in August and the review commenced in December. Makes me wonder, given this proposed LCD is dated December 19, is this what's being reviewed? or maybe part of it?

In the NCCN guidelines, I also don't see a "direct reference" to CxBladder which they mention in their guidelines announcement (https://www.cxbladder.com/us/news/2019/cxbladder-included-in-the-latest-nccn-bladder-cancer-guidelines-in-the-usa/) . The guideline mentions "urinary urothelial biomarkers" with no specific mention of CxBladder.

Given the uptake from Kaiser though, I'm sure the other big healthcare systems will seriously look at signing contracts. Who knows, maybe PEB doesn't really need the LCD after all.....;)

[Minerbarejet]

Interesting that they don't mention the Georgieva (2019) study in their discussions. Looks to be dated Dec 2019 so couldn't have included the Madhusudan (2020) study although David D did say they had successfully submitted that study to the evidence dossier with Novitas for review.

David also mentioned they submitted the evidence dossier in August and the review commenced in December. Makes me wonder, given this proposed LCD is dated December 19, is this what's being reviewed? or maybe part of it?

In the NCCN guidelines, I also don't see a "direct reference" to CxBladder which they mention in their guidelines announcement (https://www.cxbladder.com/us/news/2019/cxbladder-included-in-the-latest-nccn-bladder-cancer-guidelines-in-the-usa/) . The guideline mentions "urinary urothelial biomarkers" with no specific mention of CxBladder.

Given the uptake from Kaiser though, I'm sure the other big healthcare systems will seriously look at signing contracts. Who knows, maybe PEB doesn't really need the LCD after all.....;)

In the NCCN guidelines, I also don't see a "direct reference" to CxBladder which they mention in their guidelines announcement (https://www.cxbladder.com/us/news/2019/cxbladder-included-in-the-latest-nccn-bladder-cancer-guidelines-in-the-usa/) . The guideline mentions "urinary urothelial biomarkers" with no specific mention of CxBladder.

Probably used the wrong word there in the guidelines announcement. "Inference" might have been better.
It mentions "Urinary urothelial biomarkers" which CXBladder seems to be categorized as.
There is no specific mention of cxBladdder or any other specific biomarker for that matter.

Get the feeling that CXBladder is breaking new ground in this area with NCCN which would seem to be fairly well entrenched.
I guess we should be thankful they dont form part of any Rapid Response requirements.

[nevchev]

Ive been looking a little closer at kaiser and it seems to me they would probaly NOT take on cxbladder if they thought they wouldnt achieve LCD.

[etrader]

Can I just ask the obvious on LCD please

Is this where an insurer provides this as a preventative test for their members to help limit the potential issues downstream if no testing was done?

From memory and I can’t remember who was doing it but PEN was already providing tests currently not paid and once approved I think it was well over $4 in non banked Payments once approved

Would appreciate any updates on this

[psychic]

In the NCCN guidelines, I also don't see a "direct reference" to CxBladder which they mention in their guidelines announcement (https://www.cxbladder.com/us/news/2019/cxbladder-included-in-the-latest-nccn-bladder-cancer-guidelines-in-the-usa/) . The guideline mentions "urinary urothelial biomarkers" with no specific mention of CxBladder.

Probably used the wrong word there in the guidelines announcement. "Inference" might have been better.
It mentions "Urinary urothelial biomarkers" which CXBladder seems to be categorized as.
There is no specific mention of cxBladdder or any other specific biomarker for that matter.

Get the feeling that CXBladder is breaking new ground in this area with NCCN which would seem to be fairly well entrenched.
I guess we should be thankful they dont form part of any Rapid Response requirements.

I wrote to Pacific Edge querying this announcement at the time and asking where the NCCN guidelines referenced CxBladder.

They replied
The NCCN guidelines themselves don’t explicitly refer to Cxbladder, or any of the markers for that matter.
The reference cited in the guidelines which refers to Cxbladder is a review article by Chou et al (2015).
It is not the most compelling of reviews, and we are a little surprised that it has substantiated the move in the NCCN guidelines.
We’re not complaining though, and would expect further movement in aspects of the guidelines based on more recent publications.

I replied:

Seems to me that the latest NZX announcement by PE is very misleading.

“ The NCCN Bladder Cancer Panel considers this a category 2B recommendation, which means there is NCCN consensus that the use of Cxbladder as a clinical intervention is appropriate”

It is a bit of a stretch to say that the NCCN are recommending the use of CxBladder as appropriate surely? Use is not actually suggested in the guidelines, at most it receives a passing mention in a referenced literary study which does not seem supportive of the urinary markers considered at all! Strength of evidence for Cxbladder was low (one study written by Pacific Edge, medium risk of bias). It concludes “urinary biomarkers miss a substantial proportion of patients with bladder cancer and are falsely positive in others”.

I’d appreciate further clarification.

I received no further clarification

I'm hoping this latest news regarding Kaiser is not more puffery.

[ba9]

Most of these articles being referred here are from Mid last year.

The latest announcement posted on NZX specifically refers to an agreement/approval by Kaiser Permanente.

If anyone has been in touch with PE, since the announcement it would be great to hear from them.


"KAISER PERMANENTE APPROVES COMMERCIAL USE OF CXBLADDER

Cancer diagnostics company, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX: PEB) and US healthcare provider, Kaiser Permanente, have reached agreement for the commercial use of Pacific Edge’s Cxbladder tests.


Kaiser Permanente has approved the commercial use of Cxbladder by their urologists for patients being evaluated for bladder cancer. "

[Minerbarejet]

Good to see you back Psychic.

Think this is getting to the water under the bridge phase.
Its hardly an up to date analysis with a paper from 5 years ago.
Just goes to show how much time is needed to get this data up front and in their faces
Mind you when you look at the acres and acres of different tests for everything under the sun its a wonder anything gets approved.
Treacle alright.

[Balance]

Most of these articles being referred here are from Mid last year.

The latest announcement posted on NZX specifically refers to an agreement/approval by Kaiser Permanente.

If anyone has been in touch with PE, since the announcement it would be great to hear from them.


"KAISER PERMANENTE APPROVES COMMERCIAL USE OF CXBLADDER

Cancer diagnostics company, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX: PEB) and US healthcare provider, Kaiser Permanente, have reached agreement for the commercial use of Pacific Edge’s Cxbladder tests.


Kaiser Permanente has approved the commercial use of Cxbladder by their urologists for patients being evaluated for bladder cancer. "

Would have to say that PEB seems to have learnt the lesson not to over-promise and then, under-deliver by its historical long shot if one looks and assesses this announcement about Kaiser Permanente (KP).

There was no reference made of KP when the company announced its results on 29 May :

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353944

Rather surprising as PEB had been highlighting KP in previous announcements as being in various stages of negotiations.

The spike in the sp should certainly reinforce for PEB to not over-promise on LCD inclusion but let the results speak for themselves.

Certainly food for thought - will the sp race away as dramatically, if PEB announces it has received LCD inclusion, as it has with the KP deal?

[drcjp]

LCD are local coverage determinations
They are issued by Medicare/MedicAid providers locally and centrally.
What it means is that Medicare and other "state equivalent" health providers (as opposed to private like Kaiser) will pay for the test/procedure.
They value it of enough worth as a genuine medical test that they give it a NUMBER. And the USA is all about numbers.

It may be that PEB are well into this as it looks like bladder cancer Dx and Px molecular tests have come up on the CMS meeting schedule going on right now: https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Coverage/DeterminationProcess/LCDs


Can I just ask the obvious on LCD please

Is this where an insurer provides this as a preventative test for their members to help limit the potential issues downstream if no testing was done?

From memory and I can’t remember who was doing it but PEN was already providing tests currently not paid and once approved I think it was well over $4 in non banked Payments once approved

Would appreciate any updates on this

[pierre]

Certainly food for thought - will the sp race away as dramatically, if (that should read WHEN) PEB announces it has received LCD inclusion, as it has with the KP deal?

Almost a certainty - it will mean money in the bank PDQ and eliminate the need for any immediate CR. Must be good for at least another 20 cents on the SP - possibly more (he said, hopefully).

[Balance]

Almost a certainty - it will mean money in the bank PDQ and eliminate the need for any immediate CR. Must be good for at least another 20 cents on the SP - possibly more (he said, hopefully).

" ..... CMS-related tests accounted for approximately 43% of US Commercial Tests in FY20 and cumulatively totaled 21,789 tests as at 31 March 2020."

At US$760 a pop or NZ$1185, implies there's a potential $25.8m to be collected.

[zs_cecil]

" ..... CMS-related tests accounted for approximately 43% of US Commercial Tests in FY20 and cumulatively totaled 21,789 tests as at 31 March 2020."

At US$760 a pop or NZ$1185, implies there's a potential $25.8m to be collected.

It will be one-off revenue surge for the fiscal year plus some more recognised CMS commercial tests. It is very fruitful... :-)

Do you guys know how the cost of all unrecognised revenues was booked in the financial statement? Would it be a part of investment activities or expenses?

[pierre]

It will be one-off revenue surge for the fiscal year plus some more recognised CMS commercial tests. It is very fruitful... :-)

Do you guys know how the cost of all unrecognised revenues was booked in the financial statement? Would it be a part of investment activities or expenses?

My understanding is they haven't recognised the potential revenue from unpaid tests and the income wont be accounted for until the cash is received.
They got plenty of grief in the past for booking the income without any certainty the $$ would be in the bank, so did an about face on the process a few years back.

I stand to be corrected but I'm pretty sure that's the case.

[Drew95]

My understanding is they haven't recognised the potential revenue from unpaid tests and the income wont be accounted for until the cash is received.
They got plenty of grief in the past for booking the income without any certainty the $$ would be in the bank, so did an about face on the process a few years back.

I stand to be corrected but I'm pretty sure that's the case.

My understanding is that it is not recognised on the books as either revenue or a receivable. It is fully explained in NOTE 5, Page 11 of the latest annual report here...

https://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/investor-files/PEB-FY20-Audited-Results-Financial-Statements.pdf

[zs_cecil]

My understanding is they haven't recognised the potential revenue from unpaid tests and the income wont be accounted for until the cash is received.
They got plenty of grief in the past for booking the income without any certainty the $$ would be in the bank, so did an about face on the process a few years back.

I stand to be corrected but I'm pretty sure that's the case.

Thanks Pierre, what I actually meant was the money spent by PEB to perform these unpaid tests for CMS. Since these unpaid tests are not recognised as revenue, I am not sure how the spending was booked in the past. My very limited accounting knowledge tells me this should be a part of investment or R&D activities. I was trying to figure this out in the previous financial reports.

[Longhaul]

It may be that PEB are well into this as it looks like bladder cancer Dx and Px molecular tests have come up on the CMS meeting schedule going on right now: https://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Coverage/DeterminationProcess/LCDs

I found reference to these meetings over the weekend too and I know PEB is using Novitas, but do they also use other MACs for different jurisdictions - such as WPS and CGS?

Who else could WPS and CGS be discussing under this agenda item if not PEB? "MolDX: Prognostic and Predictive Molecular Classifiers for Bladder Cancer"

[Minerbarejet]

There is a PEB full year Final report due out shortly.
Maybe that will have some updates on progress since the cutoff date.
I would think KP will get a mention at least.
AGM could be a bit more enthusiastic this year.

[nevchev]

There is a PEB full year Final report due out shortly.
Maybe that will have some updates on progress since the cutoff date.
I would think KP will get a mention at least.
AGM could be a bit more enthusiastic this year.

When is the agm?Its very hard to do any significant research on PEB as medical profession quite confidential

[Balance]

When is the agm?Its very hard to do any significant research on PEB as medical profession quite confidential

A while yet - 5 August but short by PEB timeframe of getting anything done!

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/355098/325016.pdf

750,000 more options for David Darling at exercisable at 22c - should give him plenty of incentive to get the sp higher, I guess.

[davflaws]

750,000 more options for David Darling at exercisable at 22c - should give him plenty of incentive to get the sp higher, I guess.

He's measuring up for a bigger deck.

[nevchev]

Sp back to a level of worth a gamble now.More good news will see this run to low 40s in my opinion,question is what could that news be....

[Sideshow Bob]

He's measuring up for a bigger deck.

Dunedin - needs a conservatory to go over the deck......