PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[ba9]

Annual report is out. should be interesting to watch how the market reacts.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355311

[nevchev]

Annual report is out. should be interesting to watch how the market reacts.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355311

Nothing new

[BigBob]

Nothing new

Get used to it... :-)

[Carpenterjoe]

Nothing new
I find comparing the top twenty yoy interesting. We had one of the top twenty posting on here for a few years, Its a pity we lost him to a few keyboard warriors. Some interesting times ahead for PEB.

[Balance]

I find comparing the top twenty yoy interesting. We had one of the top twenty posting on here for a few years, Its a pity we lost him to a few keyboard warriors. Some interesting times ahead for PEB.

The shareholder who posted ‘brain farts’ etc because he did not like that other posters were right?

[Carpenterjoe]

The shareholder who posted ‘brain farts’ etc because he did not like that other posters were right?

I have never meet anyone whom is right all the time like I have never meet anyone who hasn't farted. Tho I have meet alot whom like to be right all the time.

[etrader]

Had no idea The Reserve Bank owned 38% of the company until scrolling the report.

[Southern Lad]

etrader, while New Zealand Central Securities Depositary Limited is owned by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, it is the registered owner of securities in a capacity as a Custodian only and is not the beneficial owner of the shares. See https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Markets-and-payments/NZClear/5978409.pdf?la=en

NZCSD Ltd appears on many share registers, often holding shares as custodian for institutions.

[etrader]

Appreciate that I hadn’t seen that level of ownership before so good to understand

[blackcap]

Appreciate that I hadn’t seen that level of ownership before so good to understand

On the next page you can also see a breakdown of which institutions own what in that consolidated CSDL holding. Cheers.

[kiwidollabill]

Bringing NZ/USA to a 'cash positive position' is new terminology for them rather than poising for growth etc...

[Drew95]

From: NZX Product Operations


Date: 3 July 2020


Subject: Pacific Edge Limited ("PEB") - Trading Halt of Securities





Message:


NZX Regulation ("NZXR") advises that, at the request of the company, it has


placed a trading halt on Pacific Edge Limited ("PEB") ordinary shares. The


trading halt was placed at 9:59 am.





The trading halt has been put in place pending the release of an announcement


to be made by the company.

[winner69]

From: NZX Product Operations


Date: 3 July 2020


Subject: Pacific Edge Limited ("PEB") - Trading Halt of Securities





Message:


NZX Regulation ("NZXR") advises that, at the request of the company, it has


placed a trading halt on Pacific Edge Limited ("PEB") ordinary shares. The


trading halt was placed at 9:59 am.





The trading halt has been put in place pending the release of an announcement


to be made by the company.



BIG NEWS .....share price over a buck when halt lifted I reckon

[jonu]

BIG NEWS .....share price over a buck when halt lifted I reckon

That could go the other way as well winner69, ya big tease

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Hopefully a buyout to put everyone out of their misery.

[Drew95]

Not price sensitive? 3rd party announcement11745???

[jonu]

Hopefully a buyout to put everyone out of their misery.

Could be a placement or Cap Raise? Certainly would prefer a placement at these higher prices

[Sir Ten]

Hard to see it being anything other than the status quo... a bad outcome for shareholders.

[Balance]

LCD coverage received most likely.

Or takeover by John Hopkins?

Or law suit for misdiagnosis?

Take your pick!

[Crisis]

Here it is:https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355757

[drcjp]

LCD + reimbursement/ $760 per test for CMS. Not a bad announcement.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355757

[jonu]

LCD coverage received most likely.

Or takeover by John Hopkins?

Or law suit for misdiagnosis?

Take your pick!

Now that's Balance!!!!

[Longhaul]

Have you got your order in Balance? What will this do to the MCAP?

Wondering if I should top up?

[trader_jackson]

Congratulations to all shareholders, particularly those who have been holding through thick and thin. This will be as huge as it sounds.
I sold out at 30 cents (and at a substantial loss) a few years back, but I always hoped this day would one day come for holders and very pleased to see it come - about 3-4 years late in my view - but it has arrived none the less.
I didn't do too badly, I brought Zoono not long after at 16 cents.

[whatsup]

Clap hands time at last, well done all believers , NO MORE C Rings NOW, onward and upward from here.

[whatsup]

Clap hands time at last, well done all believers , NO MORE C Rings NOW, onward and upward from here.

UP 122% after 10 min trading.

[sb9]

Well done holders, some of who are long time sufferers...

[Cadalac123]

BIG NEWS .....share price over a buck when halt lifted I reckon

How did you know winner, please tell me you actually entered ;)

[trader_jackson]

After 4 or so years of being on the share register, I can now confirm I have removed myself, taking a total hit of around 60%.
As with any speculative investment, PEB was only a small part of the portfolio so I am not concerned (pleasingly the only investment where I have lost money). However, I was hoping that small part (~2%) would grow bigly to be a large(er) part - not shrink to become an even smaller part.

I do wish PEB and its shareholders all the very best.

Almost exactly 2 years ago I exited PEB... contra to what some others thought, I always felt this day was coming for PEB, and very pleased it is now where. I notice share share price nearly hit 70 cents... great!

[whatsup]

D Ters getting out .

[jonu]

Congratulations to all long suffering holders.

Backdated payment for outstanding tests coming....and Mr Darling's tens of thousands of tests now likely. Happy days. Bring back on the heady days of $1.50+

[nevchev]

Got to be worth a buck all day long.Lots of upside from here.GLTA

[RGR367]

Almost exactly 2 years ago I exited PEB... contra to what some others thought, I always felt this day was coming for PEB, and very pleased it is now where. I notice share share price nearly hit 70 cents... great!

Looking back at my notes, same for me. Got out on 11 October 2017 for 36 at a loss. Got back at 24 just last month and looks like it's going to be more than double my 2nd punt at it already. Good on you long holders!

[RTM]

Congratulations to all long suffering holders.

Backdated payment for outstanding tests coming....and Mr Darling's tens of thousands of tests now likely. Happy days. Bring back on the heady days of $1.50+

Yes..but there are a lot more shares now than the $1.50 days.
Excellent news...I bailed at around 30c.....decent loss. Tried to get back in recently but price got away on me as I battled with the DB site.

Great industry for NZ to have. Hope it leads to much more and that PEB are not bought out by a major off-shore Biotech company.

[Leftfield]

Congratulations to all long suffering holders.

Not so long suffering...... got back in at 25c mid June. Happy new holder!

Great news for all holders.

[nevchev]

Yes..but there are a lot more shares now than the $1.50 days.
Excellent news...I bailed at around 30c.....decent loss. Tried to get back in recently but price got away on me as I battled with the DB site.

Great industry for NZ to have. Hope it leads to much more and that PEB are not bought out by a major off-shore Biotech company.
Im sure they will be on many radars now.Would be a shame if they sell out before hitting their stride

[black knat]

Congratulations to all long suffering holders.

Backdated payment for outstanding tests coming....and Mr Darling's tens of thousands of tests now likely. Happy days. Bring back on the heady days of $1.50+

With the extra shares now on issue $1.50 would make it a $1B company - from memory was more like half that at its peak 7 or 8 years ago. But finally real progress at last.

[winner69]

Love how Dave hasn’t ever let go of the word ‘transformational’

Bit disappointed he didn’t use his favourite ‘exciting’

After all this news is ‘excitingly transformstional’

[whatsup]

So how much is at stake from todays re the reimbursments ann .

[jonu]

With the extra shares now on issue $1.50 would make it a $1B company - from memory was more like half that at its peak 7 or 8 years ago. But finally real progress at last.

Yes, but back then it didn't have LCD in the bag.

Selfish motivations aside, I'm so pleased they have finally cracked it. NZ tech is proving world leading from the film industry, to the space industry and medicine. Who'da thunk?

[sb9]

Pretty handsome return for those who subscribed to Rights issue at 10c towards end of last year. But again their original purchase price might've been lot higher than that.
Hence, we might see lot of profit taking in the short term as those holders would like to lock in some gains.
Also, it would've been helpful if they've quantified the value of total reimbursements.

[Poverty]

Anyone know anything about Cxcolorectal or even other tests being developd? It's on their website but I don't recall them being mentioned.

https://www.pacificedgedx.com/products/pipeline/

[Longhaul]

Also, it would've been helpful if they've quantified the value of total reimbursements.

Page 13 of the annual report: (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/353944/323599.pdf)

"As at 31 March 2020, a total of 21,789 tests have been performed that relate to patients covered by CMS, for which no payments have been received and no revenue recognised."

This is approx 21,789 x US$760 = NZ$25,439,084.

There's other tests conducted via private insurance which I assume aren't affected by this decision and PEB will have to continue chasing.

[nevchev]

Page 13 of the annual report: (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/353944/323599.pdf)

"As at 31 March 2020, a total of 21,789 tests have been performed that relate to patients covered by CMS, for which no payments have been received and no revenue recognised."

This is approx 21,789 x US$760 = NZ$25,439,084.

There's other tests conducted via private insurance which I assume aren't affected by this decision and PEB will have to continue chasing.

Not a bad windfall!That should at least quell the need for any capital raise short term

[jonu]

Page 13 of the annual report: (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/353944/323599.pdf)

"As at 31 March 2020, a total of 21,789 tests have been performed that relate to patients covered by CMS, for which no payments have been received and no revenue recognised."

This is approx 21,789 x US$760 = NZ$25,439,084.

There's other tests conducted via private insurance which I assume aren't affected by this decision and PEB will have to continue chasing.

Yep, the cashflow problem just disappeared. Let alone all the new tests that will start to flow in. "Tens of thousands" rings a bell from the history of projections for the company.

[kiwidollabill]

Have the shareholders just arrived in the promise land....

[Food4Thought]

Not a bad windfall!That should at least quell the need for any capital raise short term


Interesting. I feel a Capital raise would allow them more cash for developing customer channels ... I say, raise more capital and go for gold ... release the hand brake, take flight.

Don't want to sit around waiting for another 10 years ...

Pretty happy today ... well done holders.

I recently jumped in as I believe in the product. Exceptional potential. I'd be keen for a Capital Raise

[Dentie]

LCD coverage received most likely.

Or takeover by John Hopkins?

Or law suit for misdiagnosis?

Take your pick!


Gone quiet after this post Balance...either off buying up as many as you can (if you haven't already) or preparing to eat that big slice of humble pie.

It took a while - but am so pleased for PEB (& its LONG TERM shareholders) this day has finally arrived. DD & Co deserve to have their day in the sun ... my best wishes to all of them.

[jonu]

Interesting. I feel a Capital raise would allow them more cash for developing customer channels ... I say, raise more capital and go for gold ... release the hand brake, take flight.

Don't want to sit around waiting for another 10 years ...

Pretty happy today ... well done holders.

I recently jumped in as I believe in the product. Exceptional potential. I'd be keen for a Capital Raise

Why would you raise more cash when you have from memory 15 million in the bank and another 25m coming from back payments? The lab is already in place in the States. I suspect they might want some more sales reps, although they have already increased this prior. Hopefully not much expense involved in scaling up from here.

[Balance]

Gone quiet after this post Balance...either off buying up as many as you can (if you haven't already) or preparing to eat that big slice of humble pie.

It took a while - but am so pleased for PEB (& its LONG TERM shareholders) this day has finally arrived. DD & Co deserve to have their day in the sun ... my best wishes to all of them.

Very easy pie to eat - with champagne & Catham Island lobster, Dentie.

I am very pleased for the long suffering remaining shareholders of PEB and I wish PEB & them well.

Read through my posts of the last few weeks and I believe you will see me acknowledging that things are changing for them.

NZ needs success stories for our future generations to be inspired and aspire to achieve. There are some very valuable lessons to be learnt from how PEB has gone about commercializing CxBladder, and I hope the lessons are learnt.

[nevchev]

Why would you raise more cash when you have from memory 15 million in the bank and another 25m coming from back payments? The lab is already in place in the States. I suspect they might want some more sales reps, although they have already increased this prior. Hopefully not much expense involved in scaling up from here.
My thoughts as well jonu.It would be another kick in the guts for long time holders to ask for more while diluting their holdings.Hope it doesnt happen

[jonu]

Very easy pie to eat - with champagne & Catham Island lobster, Dentie.

I am very pleased for the long suffering remaining shareholders of PEB and I wish PEB & them well.

Read through my posts of the last few weeks and I believe you will see me acknowledging that things are changing for them.

NZ needs success stories for our future generations to be inspired and aspire to achieve. There are some very valuable lessons to be learnt from how PEB has gone about commercializing CxBladder, and I hope the lessons are learnt.

Very gracious of you Balance.

Out of interest....what do you think the cornerstone institutions will do from here? Will they stay and start taking divvies, ride it to above $1 or start unloading at some point prior?

[Balance]

Why would you raise more cash when you have from memory 15 million in the bank and another 25m coming from back payments? The lab is already in place in the States. I suspect they might want some more sales reps, although they have already increased this prior. Hopefully not much expense involved in scaling up from here.

They spent $200m+ to get to here over a period of 20 years.

I think they will find it relatively easy from now to raise money if they want to - but they should not need to.

[Xerof]

Page 13 of the annual report: (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/353944/323599.pdf)

"As at 31 March 2020, a total of 21,789 tests have been performed that relate to patients covered by CMS, for which no payments have been received and no revenue recognised."

This is approx 21,789 x US$760 = NZ$25,439,084.

There's other tests conducted via private insurance which I assume aren't affected by this decision and PEB will have to continue chasing.

Read the Announcement again.


Pacific Edge will also be seeking to negotiate reimbursement for the Cxbladder tests that have previously been completed and invoiced for CMS patients.

Their backpay is not guaranteed (but I hope for their sake, there is some sort of flexibility around that)

[Balance]

Very gracious of you Balance.

Out of interest....what do you think the cornerstone institutions will do from here? Will they stay and start taking divvies, ride it to above $1 or start unloading at some point prior?

So much will depend obviously on how much upside potential they see.

They have funded and ridden this thing painfully all the way down to 7 cents (March 2020) and as we have seen with stocks like Serko & Diligent, I would venture to say they will ride it now until PEB gets taken over. No point hopping off just when the horse starts galloping after walking around with a lame leg for a while!

The AGM on 5 August will be a highly anticipated event for the directors to provide some guidance as to the upside potential now that the long awaited LCD coverage has been received.

Credibility will be with the company rather than skepticism (richly deserved for over-promising and under-delivering for years) so let's see what they say.

You would hope they have learnt their lesson and do what they have been doing in recent times - under-promise & over-deliver.

The aim 6 years ago was to achieve $100m in revenues - if they can provide a clear path to achieving that, I believe the funds will be happy to hold and ride it to much higher levels. Heck, they may even buy more!

[Balance]

A year ago.

Time drags on when you hold PEB?

Anyway, if they get LCD, there could be another 100% up day for the long suffering shareholders of PEB!

Not a bad prediction huh?

If PEB reaffirms the $100m revenue target within 2 years at the AGM, could be another 50% on the sp.

[jonu]

Not a bad prediction huh?

If PEB reaffirms the $100m revenue target within 2 years at the AGM, could be another 50% on the sp.

Thanks for the earlier reply regarding the instos.

I reckon you have gone for the under promise, over deliver scenario in the extra 50%. :D

I reckon it'll blow through a dollar.

[Balance]

Thanks for the earlier reply regarding the instos.

I reckon you have gone for the under promise, over deliver scenario in the extra 50%. :D

I reckon it'll blow through a dollar.

Remember a few institutions effectively control this stock now after sucking up all the CR shortfalls so they can in the short term determine (if they act in common belief) where they want the sp to be.

So if they want it to be a dollar by then, it can easily be a dollar imo.

Be careful.

[Ggcc]

I am surprised and happy for shareholders that have waited and waited and............ for way too long. Congratulations to you who held on and are riding the wave

[black knat]

Back in at 54c after a 7 year absence :)

[Dentie]

Based on my experience with other companies - the short term "concern" will be whether someone has been lurking waiting for today's announcement with the prospect of a T/O. The "concern" is, in that event, how will the Board view it and more importantly, what they will recommend to holders.

I would like to think DD & Co are awake to any premature T/O bid.

[Minerbarejet]

Think Otago University might have a bit to say about that.

Good to get a deep breath of fresh air after being underwater for so long.

[t.rexjr]

Only 16m shares traded today, i'm a little surprised volumes weren't higher given many I'm sure have been waiting for news to sell out. Bodes well for future gains as it could be that the instos aren't ready to offload yet. They'll have less chance to suppress and accumulate on lower volumes. Hold tight and see where it goes I say. Am pleased that there's finally been some progress!

[Snow Leopard]

...Also, it would've been helpful if they've quantified the value of total reimbursements.

Some one has said that there is $25M of unpaid tests which will get repaid somewhere between $0 & $25M over some unknown time scale.

Last year the 'revenue' from CMS would have been $6M2 which would have reduced the loss to $12M6.

The Kaiser thing is shrouded in mystery as to test numbers and price.

So, I reckon that there is:
1/ a possible cash flow problem this financial year;
2/ they will make a loss this financial year and maybe next as well.

But in the longer term it may thrive.

However is worth a market cap of $379M? :ohmy:

[youngatheart]

Lol, is PPH - a NZ Church tipping app - worth $2.5 Billion???...

[Leftfield]

Some one has said that there is $25M of unpaid tests which will get repaid somewhere between $0 & $25M over some unknown time scale.

Last year the 'revenue' from CMS would have been $6M2 which would have reduced the loss to $12M6.

The Kaiser thing is shrouded in mystery as to test numbers and price.

......However is worth a market cap of $379M? :ohmy:

So current Revenue = (say) $6 mill. Then buried in the reports is the news that up tp 43% of current CMS revenue is 'free'..... so if that now turns to revenue we get $9 mill.

Plus added Revenue from Kaiser?? (say another $10 mill??)

Plus previous revenue not charged but now chargeable (say) $25 mill (one-off)

Plus growth and new customers? Looks like FY21 Revenue could get to $30 mill?

Interested to hear other views, in the meantime happy to have used yesterday's news to double my holding so now my av holding SP 35% lower than yesterday's closing SP.

[Longhaul]

Not sure about current revenues, but there is this from an Edison report (paid for by PEB no doubt):

"According to an analysis by Ernst and Young sponsored by Pacific Edge, the annual addressable market for Cxbladder is US$1.2bn with 3.4 million being evaluated for urothelial cancer each year. An additional 800,000 are monitored for recurrence three to four times per year."

If the PEB suite of tests prove to be better than other commercial tests, perhaps the allure of the total market opportunity is what is giving it a mcap of nearly NZ$400m.

[Minerbarejet]

Kaiser Permanente is a Healthcare Provider.
Medicare is a Public Healthcare Insurer

Therefore a person going to a KP clinic having Medicare as their insurance will now be told that cxBladder is now covered by their insurance.
Therefore you cannot add Medicare totals to KP totals for an estimate of income.

The Medicare totals owing come from all the Healthcare Providers in the US including KP with patients having Medicare Insurance.
Think that is the way it works.

[Leftfield]

Article in the NZ Herald today.... see here. (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12345351)

A bit more is said on future revenue....

"Andrew Bascand, managing director of Harbour Asset Management - which owns 16.4 per cent of Pacific Edge - estimates that "at the current run rate the CMS approval is worth about $10m in revenues" to the firm.
Pacific Edge said it will now also seek reimbursement for tests that have already been done and invoiced for CMS patients.
Those invoices are worth about US$16.6m, but final reimbursement is typically subject to negotiation"

Looks like FY 21 Revenue of $20 - $30 mill not far wrong?

[nevchev]

They spent $200m+ to get to here over a period of 20 years.

I think they will find it relatively easy from now to raise money if they want to - but they should not need to.

Revenues will depend on the uptake of Cxbladder by other health providers and the speed at which it happens.We may see a flood of announcements as,in my opinion,this will happen quite rapidly.

[jridler]

Revenues will depend on the uptake of Cxbladder by other health providers and the speed at which it happens.We may see a flood of announcements as,in my opinion,this will happen quite rapidly.
Long-time holder, seldom poster. Although the recent action is certainly exciting, and without wanting to temper this excitement too much (goodness knows, it is well overdue), I do want to add some balance to the view of rapid scaling. The Kaiser Permanente user program for Cxbladder was commenced mid-2015. We have now, five years later in mid-2020, achieved commercial approval. You can see in reports dating back to the completion of the user program in 2017 that discussions were "progressing", "continuing" or similar such verb. In my view, a tipping point has recently been reached with the Kaiser Permanente commercial approval and LCD inclusion - however, I would be very deliberate in your definition and personal expectations of "quite rapidly", given the glacial pace at which, historically, commercial milestones have progressed. This is no slight against the company, but is more reflective of the nature of the industry.

[Minerbarejet]

Kaiser Permanente is a Healthcare Provider.
Medicare is a Public Healthcare Insurer

Therefore a person going to a KP clinic having Medicare as their insurance will now be told that cxBladder is now covered by their insurance.
Therefore you cannot add Medicare totals to KP totals for an estimate of income.

The Medicare totals owing come from all the Healthcare Providers in the US including KP with patients having Medicare Insurance.
Think that is the way it works.

This needs some clarification at this point.
Further research of published PEB news letters reveals that Kaiser Permanente intends utilizing cxBladder for the evaluation of haematuria.

This is the Triage test not Monitor or Detect.

Monitor and Detect have CMS reimbursement codes but Triage does not as yet.
I would hope that the Triage code would be forthcoming in short order to cover those with Medicare coverage being evaluated by KP
KP being an insurer as well as provider have their own plans and can therefore do what they like with cx bladder utilisation in that capacity.

[nevchev]

Long-time holder, seldom poster. Although the recent action is certainly exciting, and without wanting to temper this excitement too much (goodness knows, it is well overdue), I do want to add some balance to the view of rapid scaling. The Kaiser Permanente user program for Cxbladder was commenced mid-2015. We have now, five years later in mid-2020, achieved commercial approval. You can see in reports dating back to the completion of the user program in 2017 that discussions were "progressing", "continuing" or similar such verb. In my view, a tipping point has recently been reached with the Kaiser Permanente commercial approval and LCD inclusion - however, I would be very deliberate in your definition and personal expectations of "quite rapidly", given the glacial pace at which, historically, commercial milestones have progressed. This is no slight against the company, but is more reflective of the nature of the industry.
My point was that coverage by medicare now enables many more health care pro viders to be able to offer Cxbladder as an alternative to other options currently available.In the current climate,i can see home based testing as been a preferred method.It will be interesting to see how this unfolds

[tango]

I thought that PEB were still awaiting FDA approval and that money can't be collected until the approval comes through? Can someone clarify that for me??? It seems an exciting opportunity but a huge risk until the approval comes through

[baaantom]

I thought that PEB were still awaiting FDA approval and that money can't be collected until the approval comes through? Can someone clarify that for me??? It seems an exciting opportunity but a huge risk until the approval comes through

Based on my understanding, FDA approval is necessary when the product is being sold direct to the patient. PEB sells direct to the healthcare insurer/provider rather than to the patient.

PEB has said they specifically did not want to go down the FDA approval route.

[tango]

Based on my understanding, FDA approval is necessary when the product is being sold direct to the patient. PEB sells direct to the healthcare insurer/provider rather than to the patient.

PEB has said they specifically did not want to go down the FDA approval route.

Thanks for that!

I must be out of date. I saw press releases where PEB were looking at FDA approval. Maybe the strategy has changed. I was following PEB for a while and then got distracted. Watching them again now 😂

[youngatheart]

I predict sp will be $1.00 by Friday... If not sooner!

[nevchev]

I predict sp will be $1.00 by Friday... If not sooner!
Big call but looking like a strong open so you may be right

[tango]

Big call but looking like a strong open so you may be right

Sometimes it opens strong and dips away...

[Leftfield]

I predict sp will be $1.00 by Friday... If not sooner!


Hope you are right! .......in the meantime here's what the ODT had to say about PEB's 'Huge Achievement.' (https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-hails-‘huge-achievement’)

[tango]

Lots of people cashing out their gains...

[tango]

Hope you are right! .......in the meantime here's what the ODT had to say about PEB's 'Huge Achievement.' (https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-hails-‘huge-achievement’)

Most of that is extracted straight from the press release, so it's really what PEB has to say about it :D

[Leftfield]

Most of that is extracted straight from the press release, so it's really what PEB has to say about it :D

Agree......such is journalism today! Sad.

[tango]

Agree......such is journalism today! Sad.

And Stuff (which I know is not ODT) has the bad manners to ask for donations!

[ba9]

I agree with you. But sometimes, it's better than OPINION posts published by newspapers :)

[t.rexjr]

Seems to be a lot of effort going into driving the price down on this. Shorting to accumulate I'd think

[Balance]

Seems to be a lot of effort going into driving the price down on this. Shorting to accumulate I'd think

Don't worry too much about what others do - focus on what you think is the upside potential from here.

[barney]

Incredible how much things can change in a couple of weeks.

The retrospective payments for tests already done for CMS may take some time to come through given the glacial pace at which things move in the US. They will probably need to raise some more capital to bridge the gap between the US sales really cranking up and existing funds running low. I certainly don't see them having problems raising additional funds. Possibly are placement to instos at a market premium.

The agm should be an interesting affair this year.

[Balance]

Agree......such is journalism today! Sad.

Hardly expect ODT to write too much about PEB these days after the egg on their face in the last 5 years cheerleading their darling Otago based meditech company.

It should be a good thing - PEB needs to keep underpromising & overdelivering.

[Leftfield]

It should be a good thing - PEB needs to keep underpromising & overdelivering.

Agree - maybe PEB could learn from ATM in that respect....... if only! (Nice to dream.)

[Balance]

Agree - maybe PEB could learn from ATM in that respect....... if only! (Nice to dream.)

PEB really needs to contract a very good PR firm to manage their profile & interaction with the market and the medical industry in the US. Something they should be able to afford now. They have one in NZ but US is where the big upside is going to be in the next 1-3 years.

I recall Mainfreight did it years ago and what they spent on an excellent external PR consultant is a pittance compared with the very favourable image & profile they have gotten in their industry and in the stockmarket with investors. I actually sat in the meeting where a Mainfreight representative canvassed views on hiring a PR consultant.

[RTM]

PEB really needs to contract a very good PR firm to manage their profile & interaction with the market and the medical industry in the US. Something they should be able to afford now. They have one in NZ but US is where the big upside is going to be in the next 1-3 years.

I recall Mainfreight did it years ago and what they spent on an excellent external PR consultant is a pittance compared with the very favourable image & profile they have gotten in their industry and in the stockmarket with investors. I actually sat in the meeting where a Mainfreight representative canvassed views on hiring a PR consultant.

Yes. Some companies I'm aware of in the USA use this company.
https://www.lifesciadvisors.com/
Believe they are pretty good. I guess we just don't have a big enough pharma / Biotech industry in NZ to have this kind of resource.

[Balance]

Yes. Some companies I'm aware of in the USA use this company.
https://www.lifesciadvisors.com/
Believe they are pretty good. I guess we just don't have a big enough pharma / Biotech industry in NZ to have this kind of resource.

Indeed.

Well, here's hoping PEB takes note and spend some money in that space.

[youngatheart]

Are there any other insurers that we're waiting approval for? I thought there was a Veterans one mentioned at some point in the past...

[kyanar]

Are there any other insurers that we're waiting approval for? I thought there was a Veterans one mentioned at some point in the past...

That would likely be the Veteran's Administration to get into VA hospitals. That's not an insurer, it's the US government department that provides medical care for returned veterans (and families?)

They're definitely big bikkies though.

[nevchev]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355851

[Minerbarejet]

59.4 million US citizens over the age of 65 and signed up for compulsory Medicare now have access to cxBladder.
This lack of access for the most likely candidates for bladder cancer has been the handbrake on the progress of Pacific Edge.
It would seem that all the sign ups over the years, Stratos, DOD, Tricare have been hindered by this.
Now the brakes are off on the PEB tank.

[Leftfield]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355851

Nice endorsement......SP moving along nicely.


59.4 million US citizens over the age of 65 and signed up for compulsory Medicare now have access to cxBladder.
This lack of access for the most likely candidates for bladder cancer has been the handbrake on the progress of Pacific Edge.
It would seem that all the sign ups over the years, Stratos, DOD, Tricare have been hindered by this.
Now the brakes are off on the PEB tank.

Good times ahead IMHO.

(Disc - Holding and happy.)

[bottomfeeder]

Good on you, perserverance has paid off, it could have gone either way, for a while there. Still "motley fool" thinks as a comparison to other biotechs, PEB is now over priced. One of his points was, the company has not yet nade a profit, and with the increased turnover on the horizon, comes increased costs.

Maybe, Im sour I didnt get in a month ago.

[Minerbarejet]

Nice endorsement......SP moving along nicely.



Good times ahead IMHO.


(Disc - Holding and happy.)

The proof will be in the lab throughput figures at the end of November Half Yearly.
A substantial rise under Summer Holiday and Covid scenarios for the current second quarter will be a good indication.
I can certainly wait til then

[ba9]

Good on you, perserverance has paid off, it could have gone either way, for a while there. Still "motley fool" thinks as a comparison to other biotechs, PEB is now over priced. One of his points was, the company has not yet nade a profit, and with the increased turnover on the horizon, comes increased costs.

Maybe, Im sour I didnt get in a month ago.


Are you able to post the link from Motley Fool. Could not find related on their website. Thank you.

[whatsup]

Are you able to post the link from Motley Fool. Could not find related on their website. Thank you.

ba9, that why their nick name is da da fool !

[Leftfield]

Good on you, perserverance has paid off, it could have gone either way, for a while there. Still "motley fool" thinks as a comparison to other biotechs, PEB is now over priced. One of his points was, the company has not yet nade a profit, and with the increased turnover on the horizon, comes increased costs.

Maybe, Im sour I didnt get in a month ago.

No perseverance here...... I first held PEB back in Nov 2012 at 44c and did alright (the first share I ever held that doubled in price) Got out subsequently at various prices after seeing TA trends drop and listening other posters incl Balance.

Back into PEB June 2020 and doing well so far (TA in Golden Cross territory)........ up over 40% (unrealised) with a much bigger holding than in 2012 period.

FWIW I would never go by Motley Fool's recommendations. (They got is seriously wrong in the early days with ATM/A2M and like many brokers, they often don't understand small cap stocks) ....Nothing better than riding a small cap stock from no profit as it turns to profit and the institutions/brokers begin to take notice. JMHO.

[bottomfeeder]

Beats me, Just came up as a notification on my phone a week ago. Maybe it was stuff, NZ herald or Sky News.

oday’s jump represents the second big leap in share price in two weeks.
While there’s much positivity for Pacific Edge’s long-term prospects in the American market, some caution is needed as well.
Our analysis indicates:


Pacific Edge has a price-to-book ratio of 12.8x, which is higher than the 3.6x average usually seen in the biotech industry.
It has a return on equity of –130.21%, which indicates that the company has a history of being unprofitable.
In addition, the company has reported an after-tax net loss of $18.9 million for the year ended March 31.

This makes Pacific Edge a speculative investment with a potentially volatile share price. The future horizon is attractive — but can the company’s fundamentals support that wide-eyed optimism?
Discerning investors should approach this stock with caution.

[Merc]

PEB was founded in August 2001 and in the last 19 years many, many millions have gone into Research and Development, User Trials, Marketing...
Getting a medical test of this nature into mainstream use has turned out to be a lot trickier than the company expected.

I bought shares in May 2013, good news came along in 2014 and the share price shot up dramatically.
Unfortunately the Good News didn't translate into profit and within a few months the price dropped, then dropped further... and further...

Despite this I kept the faith and have gradually added shares. Via the share market and also through buying shares when they did capital raising.

The latest news indicates they "might", finally, have turned the corner - and may even generate a profit in the next year or two!

But until their balance sheet actually goes into the black they are still speculative.

NOTE: Back in the 90s my Dad bought $2,000 worth of shares in a small Australian Bio-Tech company - CSL. I live in hope that PEB will be MY CSL. But there is still risk.

[Merc]

Some years ago I came across the SWOT analysis of business.
Basically think of things under 4 headings.

Strengths : Weaknesses


Opportunities : Threats


So how does this relate to PEB?

STRENGTHS:
- 100% accurate tests
- Covid 19 encouraging tests from home

WEAKNESSES:
- Trying to convince people in the highly conservative, change resistant medical field that WE are right... like 100% of the time... and can do it cheaper
- And the paperwork, approvals, da da da...

OPPORTUNITIES:
- Well sort of the world. Or at least those of the world that need these tests

THREATS:
- Dr Spock, come in Dr Spock! Do you still have your radar gun thing that can point at a head and diagnose everything? Or will advanced DNA testing take its place, thus reducing the need for other tests?

- Oh, and once again, covid-19. This time reducing the numbers of those who need testing.

PEB is still speculative. Looking really, really.... good but with risks.

Personally I'm hanging on to my accumulated shares (and have been bouncing to the moon and back since they FINALLY went from the red into the black last Friday)

But it all comes down to personal risk.

Are you an investor? In it, like me, for the long term? Happy to see what happens?

Or a share trader? After short term <taxable> profits? Short on cash? Need profits now to buy a house?

[Merc]

BTW. Thanks Dad. You didn't live to see CSL jump to dizzying heights but Mum benefited from the dividends.
(And my brother and I kind of like our recent increase in our assets and income.)

Roll on PEB.

This one might come in our time. Or not.
We, our kids and grandchildren may benefit. Or not.

Doctor Spock???

[whatsup]

Some years ago I came across the SWOT analysis of business.
Basically think of things under 4 headings.

Strengths : Weaknesses


Opportunities : Threats


So how does this relate to PEB?

STRENGTHS:
- 100% accurate tests
- Covid 19 encouraging tests from home

WEAKNESSES:
- Trying to convince people in the highly conservative, change resistant medical field that WE are right... like 100% of the time... and can do it cheaper
- And the paperwork, approvals, da da da...

OPPORTUNITIES:
- Well sort of the world. Or at least those of the world that need these tests

THREATS:
- Dr Spock, come in Dr Spock! Do you still have your radar gun thing that can point at a head and diagnose everything? Or will advanced DNA testing take its place, thus reducing the need for other tests?

- Oh, and once again, covid-19. This time reducing the numbers of those who need testing.

PEB is still speculative. Looking really, really.... good but with risks.

Personally I'm hanging on to my accumulated shares (and have been bouncing to the moon and back since they FINALLY went from the red into the black last Friday)

But it all comes down to personal risk.

Are you an investor? In it, like me, for the long term? Happy to see what happens?

Or a share trader? After short term <taxable> profits? Short on cash? Need profits now to buy a house?

yes yes yes SWOT tells it all ! patience now is needed, I think despite several false starts and undelivery, rantings from D D I think this ( maybe ) time that they/we are on the correct path !!

[Balance]

BTW. Thanks Dad. You didn't live to see CSL jump to dizzying heights but Mum benefited from the dividends.
(And my brother and I kind of like our recent increase in our assets and income.)

Roll on PEB.

This one might come in our time. Or not.
We, our kids and grandchildren may benefit. Or not.

Doctor Spock???

Relax, Merc.

There's probably a string of announcements/deals to be announced now over the next 12 months which will keep punters (day traders) and long term investors like you happy.

There was a logjam behind the wall but floodgates are now open.

All the best.

[nevchev]

yes yes yes SWOT tells it all ! patience now is needed, I think despite several false starts and undelivery, rantings from D D I think this ( maybe ) time that they/we are on the correct path !!

Agree with the correct path but we may not need as much patience as we have had getting to this point.Cxbladder is a contactless testing method with a proven accuracy. Not only will it protect the test subject,but it also offers protection to the clinicians diagnosing the subject.Many in the medical field will insist upon it(and rightly so)

[kiwidollabill]

If we're now at the point that the tech is over the line. SWOT should be around their ability to execute on the opp.

Are the people/resources and business model (a vertically integrated diagnostics/lab setup) appropriate to achieve what they've always promised....?

Less well known about the US side, but this is the first time many of the NZ team are experiencing a company/business environment such as this one.

[Minerbarejet]

If we're now at the point that the tech is over the line. SWOT should be around their ability to execute on the opp.

Are the people/resources and business model (a vertically integrated diagnostics/lab setup) appropriate to achieve what they've always promised....?

Less well known about the US side, but this is the first time many of the NZ team are experiencing a company/business environment such as this one.
I think the CEO of Pedusa, Jackie Walker, will be quite aware of the needs once the tests start arriving in numbers at Hershey.
She has had plenty of time for planning in the last few years.
Im sure there will be contingency plans if there is a sudden upsurge.

[Ggcc]

At what price should one start to accumulate, as the price is dropping slowly?

[Xerof]

At what price should one start to accumulate, as the price is dropping slowly?I won't be popular for saying this, but accumulate once it has retraced to fill the GAP between 31 and 42

[Balance]

I won't be popular for saying this, but accumulate once it has retraced to fill the GAP between 31 and 42

It is what it is.

All opinions are welcome.

[whatsup]

Before the 5th Aug AGM, Im expecting a heads up on whatsup and where we are heading, should be very interesting meeting.

[macduffy]

At what price should one start to accumulate, as the price is dropping slowly?

Wait until its stopped dropping. You may not fluke the lowest price but you'll miss all those falling knives on the way down.

[Leftfield]

I won't be popular for saying this, but accumulate once it has retraced to fill the GAP between 31 and 42

Not popular maybe..... but not silly.

That gap serves as a caution until better news comes along (or the 5 Aug AGM)

[ba9]

Some of other big stocks are also trading low, following the trend.

[Ggcc]

I won't be popular for saying this, but accumulate once it has retraced to fill the GAP between 31 and 42
As Balance mentioned, all opinions welcome

[Balance]

As Balance mentioned, all opinions welcome

The one caution I would sound to anyone contemplating selling out and buying back lower is this - PEB today reminds me of 6/7 years ago when its sp is very prone to spike much higher on any positive news.

There should be a reasonable pipeline of potential deals (eg. John Hopkins) that the company had been working on in the last few years - any announcement will tend to accentuate the positive momentum PEB is riding with.

[Merc]

The best time to buy would be half an hour before the next unexpected, out of the blue, Trading Halt for Good News.

[Balance]

The best time to buy would be half an hour before the next unexpected, out of the blue, Trading Halt for Good News.

If only it was that simple! So far PEB seems to have finally been able to keep a lid on leaks - hence the 100% increases in sp from the last 2 announcements.

Imagine the next announcement being a listing on the Nasdaq, sponsored by one of big firms - what will that do to the sp?

[whatsup]

The one caution I would sound to anyone contemplating selling out and buying back lower is this - PEB today reminds me of 6/7 years ago when its sp is very prone to spike much higher on any positive news.

There should be a reasonable pipeline of potential deals (eg. John Hopkins) that the company had been working on in the last few years - any announcement will tend to accentuate the positive momentum PEB is riding with.


Bal just the same as one of your hotter picks from last year


Just the same as one of your "HOTTER " picks from last year PLX !!

[Waltzing]

use to trade this stock but stopped following it ages ago.. well wasnt 10 cents a bargin very lucky people who bought.

[Balance]

Bal just the same as one of your hotter picks from last year


Just the same as one of your "HOTTER " picks from last year PLX !!

Well, everyone is happy.

All you have to do now is revisit that list of flea infested stocks from last year that someone put under my name and you could be onto a bonanza this year! :t_up:

[Merc]

If only it was that simple! So far PEB seems to have finally been able to keep a lid on leaks - hence the 100% increases in sp from the last 2 announcements.

Imagine the next announcement being a listing on the Nasdaq, sponsored by one of big firms - what will that do to the sp?

Precisely!

[Minerbarejet]

If only it was that simple! So far PEB seems to have finally been able to keep a lid on leaks - hence the 100% increases in sp from the last 2 announcements.

Imagine the next announcement being a listing on the Nasdaq, sponsored by one of big firms - what will that do to the sp?
From that I take it that you are now the proud owner of at least 2 PEB shares.
Considering the change of heart are we to be subjected to another serious pump and dump to lets say --- $5.00?
Given the depth of the recent announcements and revealing of the true nature of the PEB situation do you think it would be appropriate to recognize that there were actually no bumbling idiots at the helm of PEB but more likely elsewhere.
Just asking for a friend.
:)

[Balance]

From that I take it that you are now the proud owner of at least 2 PEB shares.
Considering the change of heart are we to be subjected to another serious pump and dump to lets say --- $5.00?
Given the depth of the recent announcements and revealing of the true nature of the PEB situation do you think it would be appropriate to recognize that there were actually no bumbling idiots at the helm of PEB but more likely elsewhere.
Just asking for a friend.
:)

Words seriously fail me as to what a bunch of amateurs PEB directors and management have been in the commercialization of CxBladder.

All credit to them however that they managed to persuade the institutions to keep funding their amateurish efforts.

It is pure luck however that another company has not come up with a similar or better test during the torturous 6/7 years to get to this point!

Like Rod Drury recognizing that Xero needed new & different talent, let's hope that they bring on board more commercially savvy & capable management to take the company to the next phase of its commercialisation journey.

[Cadalac123]

If only it was that simple! So far PEB seems to have finally been able to keep a lid on leaks - hence the 100% increases in sp from the last 2 announcements.

Imagine the next announcement being a listing on the Nasdaq, sponsored by one of big firms - what will that do to the sp?

So strategy is hold hoping for the next big sp bounce announcement with all subjective fundamentals right now? sounds great

[Poverty]

Yeah they have a really good momentum going on with Cxbladder right now. Who knows how much more will happen next announcement.

[Longhaul]

So strategy is hold hoping for the next big sp bounce announcement with all subjective fundamentals right now? sounds great

1. Decide if you want to invest. "NO" is the easiest answer, no shortage of other places to put your money.

2. If "YES", decide how much you want to risk.

3. Decide whether to buy in at market price now (and maybe set a stop loss that you are comfortable with).

4. Or, decide to build your position over time as the SP falls, and hope you get your position before there is any announcement.


As Balance mentions, I think a lot of us are expecting further announcements, and that there is a really high chance they will be good based on finally achieving the CMS milestone. Unfortunately we have no way of predicting when these might drop.

As always, if you are not willing to take on risk, you will reap the commensurate rewards.

GLTAH.

[Longhaul]

Just watched an older presentation from 2017 on CxBladder by urologist Sia Daneshmand (not sure what, if any, relationship he might have with Pacific Edge but he is a big fan it seems?) - https://youtu.be/ZC1yCvwZl74.

Nothing that we don't already know, but towards the end of the video he discusses how the CxBladder tests could make their way into primary healthcare settings in the US.

We know there are roughly 80,000 new cases of bladder cancer in the US every year and these represent just 3-5% of cases of hematuria. A quick calculation would suggest up to 1.6m people present to their doctor (or urologist) with hematuria each year and need to have bladder cancer ruled out, or get a full work up.

Even if just 5% of the 1.6m patients with hematuria get a CxBladder test, that could be as many as 80,000 tests p.a. This doesn't even include any subsequent monitoring of the actual 80,000 new confirmed cases each year.

The other presenter also says how there's growing medical malpractice lawsuits because of cancers being missed by their urologist or doctor. If CxBladder becomes a gold standard test to either rule out cancer (NPV of 97%), or find that further investigation is required, I imagine physicians everywhere will be lining up to use this and avoid those lawsuits.

Finally, we also hear from PEB's annual report that teleconferences due to Covid-19 have gone from 15% to up to 80% for a "leading healthcare provider". With the current situation getting out of control in the US at the moment, perhaps this really will accelerate uptake of non-contact testing in a big way. It's mostly the elderly who will be presenting with hematuria and they are most at risk of the virus.

It really feels like things are lining up - could Pacific Edge be a US$1B company one day? I guess that's the dream.


Bonus: here's a reminder of the performance of the other tests from 2017 data - 11771

[nevchev]

Cheers longhaul,like your work😁

[Minerbarejet]

Dont know where you have obtained your figures but here is the quotation from the PEB AGM of 2019.

The USA remains our primary commercial focus with an estimated addressable annual market opportunityfor Cxbladder of around US$1.2b, this was ratified by EY Parthenon in 2018.Our tests can be used for the 7 million people who present annually with haematuria, the 3.4 million whorequire further workup for bladder cancer annually, and the 800,000 who need monitoring for recurrence ofthe disease more than 3 times per year. So you can see that this is a sizeable market where there has beenno new commercial tests launched in 17 years.

Seems to be plenty of room for expansion.
Lab throughputs will show the increases from here on.

[Longhaul]

Dont know where you have obtained your figures...

Thanks Minerbarejet! Seems my rough calc was extremely conservative. (Which is good to know).

Has anyone seen any annual sales figures for the other commercial tests?

[Minerbarejet]

Two things happened along the way in this saga that convinced me that they were on the right track and had a bright future.

The first was a small bullet that appeared under one of the original publications for review.
It stated that during testing cxBladder found 2 cases that cystoscopy did not find until further investigation found them eventually.
One was upper tract and the other In situ. I recall a renal also detected

The second was shortly after CDHB started its assessment and someone ( the NHB I think) enquired as to what had happened to their CDHB waiting lists.

Another more recent one has been the mentioning on several occasions that cxBladder can in fact replace the Gold Standard, Cystoscopy, in certain Monitoring situations and providing a better result when used as an adjunct for indecisive cases.

Hopefully we may get an indication of progress via the AGM which is not far away.
Be definitely expecting some kind of uptick from the last month.
We will see,
Maybe its time to get quarterly reporting under way.

[Minerbarejet]

Lets just take that 7 million presenting with haematuria over the entire population.
Kaiser Permanente has roughly 1/27th of the population on its books at around 12 million.
Therefore their share is roughly 260,000 patients
If 1 in 10 are allocated a cxbladder test that ends up with around 26000 tests at 1000NZd a time.

Enough to support the current PEB expenditures on its own.
Just Kaiser
Just Triage
Just 10%

So what are Kaiser doing with the other 90%?

[Brain]

Lets just take that 7 million presenting with haematuria over the entire population.
Kaiser Permanente has roughly 1/27th of the population on its books at around 12 million.
Therefore their share is roughly 260,000 patients
If 1 in 10 are allocated a cxbladder test that ends up with around 26000 tests at 1000NZd a time.

Enough to support the current PEB expenditures on its own.
Just Kaiser
Just Triage
Just 10%

So what are Kaiser doing with the other 90%?

Which ever way you dice it the opportunity seems huge. I am sure that 100% of the patients would be happier to go with CX bladder rather than the Cystoscopy which is not going to be much fun. Presumably the medical insurers would be making savings as well. There has got to be a significant tail wind here . I am a happy holder.

[Yoda]

CxBladder test is much safer for medical staff during this Covid times, rather than close contact cystoscopy. More money can be made for a dr doing a cystoscopy, but the test might be done for social distancing? ( I think thats been covered before, but just thinking out loud)

[Brain]

CxBladder test is much safer for medical staff during this Covid times, rather than close contact cystoscopy. More money can be made for a dr doing a cystoscopy, but the test might be done for social distancing? ( I think thats been covered before, but just thinking out loud)

It depends I guess on who drives this. Insurance companies and paying patients would go for the cheapest option.
Can doctors insist on going down the more expensive cystoscope route?

[drcjp]

It depends I guess on who drives this. Insurance companies and paying patients would go for the cheapest option.
Can doctors insist on going down the more expensive cystoscope route?

Yes, they can if the guidelines recommend cytoscopy. Urologists will do what they want, but if CxBladder makes its way into any guideline recommendation then it will really take off.
This will be an interesting pt come August, when one would should be asking strongly how much uptake have they gathered already by Kaiser and CMS? And what the plan is to get the urologists fully on board.

[Minerbarejet]

My bet is they have 16 sales people out there, armed with the CMS approvals for Detect and Monitor and KP adoption of Triage as convincing arguments, doing the rounds of previously hesitant and or unconvinced urologists, physicians, LUGs, etc.

On the cash side, CMS had 5600 tests done last year coming through for their approval.
As this rate has been climbing steadily in recent years (without approval) I think that now Peb has those approvals from CMS the very least they can expect is getting 5600 tests paid for in this coming year.
At 1000 bucks apiece $NZD 5,600,000 makes quite hole in the cashflow deficit based on the current Full Year 2020 stated throughput alone.

[Balance]

Interesting to review what was said about a year ago :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12254670

"As well as Medicare, other major bodies the firm is targeting include Johns Hopkins Medicine, veterans' healthcare groups VA and Tricare, and Kaiser Permanente. Pacific Edge reduced its US sales force to 12 last year to contain costs, but sales growth had slowed as a result, Gallaher said. The board yesterday agreed to take that up to 16, which would still leave three lower-priority regions uncovered, he noted."

Now that Kaiser is in, guess next announcement about a deal could be Johns Hopkins, VA or Tricare.

[Carpenterjoe]

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Interview-with-David-Darling-Edison-Talks.mp3

[nevchev]

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Interview-with-David-Darling-Edison-Talks.mp3

Thanks for posting that joe.Very informative

[Longhaul]

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Interview-with-David-Darling-Edison-Talks.mp3

Thanks. So at the 34 minute mark, David states the new guidelines for Triage and imaging have moved sensitivity to 97% and NPV to 99.7%.

Not sure if these relate only to NZ guidelines as that seems to be the context in which he states these new figures.

[Leftfield]

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Interview-with-David-Darling-Edison-Talks.mp3

Thanks for posting. A comprehensive update on PEB, its achievements and the potential ahead. Exciting.

[Carpenterjoe]

https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/eau-2020/bladder-cancer/123171-eau-2020-urinary-markers-in-low-grade-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-ready-to-stop-cystoscopies.html (https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/eau-2020/bladder-cancer/123171-eau-2020-urinary-markers-in-low-grade-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-ready-to-stop-cystoscopies.html)

[Poverty]

https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/eau-2020/bladder-cancer/123171-eau-2020-urinary-markers-in-low-grade-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-ready-to-stop-cystoscopies.html (https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/eau-2020/bladder-cancer/123171-eau-2020-urinary-markers-in-low-grade-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-ready-to-stop-cystoscopies.html)

PEB has quite the competition. Some values of negative predictive values and other things mentioned in the article:

1) Xpert Bladder cancer monitor: 93% all bladdder cancers and 97.6% high grade tumours - done in a self-contained cartridge with 90 minutes turnover.
2) Bladder EpiCheck test: 99.3% overall and 95.1% for non-low grade Ta occurrrence - not influenced by infections.
3) Cxbladder: 97%.
4) ADXBLADDER-MCM5: 93%.
5) Uromonitor-V2: 95.3%.

[Minerbarejet]

Doesnt seem to mention anywhere that the others are approved by CMS or KP for that matter unless I have missed something.
The others may well have the long approval road ahead of them.
Seems like the references are a bit dated as well.

[Lewylewylewy]

Whether or not the competition are approved seems like an essential piece of research to anyone looking to invest in peb.

[Harrie]

The competition is only competition if they have significant data to back up their claim. PEB have spent 7 years with vast amounts of proof whereas the others are only vertically just pilot schemes as far as I can see. Maybe competition in 5 or 6 years.
PEB are also now looking at prostate bio markers, along with other cancers, so future is bright.
Bladder cancer is what they have concentrated on first an obvious one because their research showed that this was the most problematic to urologists given the uncertainty of cystoscopys and the procedural invasive nature of them

[TideMan]

PEB are also now looking at prostate bio markers, along with other cancers, so future is bright.

A prostate biopsy is pretty nasty also - just about the worst experience of my life - so good luck to them with that.

[RTM]

A prostate biopsy is pretty nasty also - just about the worst experience of my life - so good luck to them with that.

I am totally with you there TideMan. Totally !
Good luck,

[patrick]

Bang, Bang, Bang, Bang with a mechanical sound!

[TideMan]

Bang, Bang, Bang, Bang with a mechanical sound!

Twelve times in fact.

[Dentie]

Come on guys....why are you terrorizing the rest of us? :ohmy:

[Longhaul]

PEB are also now looking at prostate bio markers, along with other cancers, so future is bright.

Sorry I'm out of the loop on this, but where did PEB discuss prostate bio markers? Thanks.

[davflaws]

A recent post provided a link to DDs address to a conference where he sketched the history of PEB and its sucess in building a database with biomarkers for colorectal, prostate, gastric and bladder cancers and their decision to try to bring CX Bladder to market first.

[Harrie]

Exactly, but I believe that prostate cancer biomarkers is the next one off the blocks

[Carpenterjoe]

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/cms-reimbursement-obtained/27314

[nevchev]

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/cms-reimbursement-obtained/27314

Cheers joe.looking good for PEB

[Minerbarejet]

Of course it does. They paid for it

[Balance]

https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/cms-reimbursement-obtained/27314

Given previous Edison/PEB reports of over-promising and under-delivering, one certainly hopes that PEB has learnt its lesson & now, under-promise and over-deliver.

Indication that there will be no further capital raising may disappoint some punters?

[jonu]

Given previous Edison/PEB reports of over-promising and under-delivering, one certainly hopes that PEB has learnt its lesson & now, under-promise and over-deliver.

Indication that there will be no further capital raising may disappoint some punters?

Do you mean those waiting in the wings that are hoping for a pull back in the SP? I expect it to gradually rise heading into the ASM.

[Minerbarejet]

Any of those that are unaware of it there is a royalty paid by/to be paid by Pacific Edge for the use of Midkine as one of the biomarkers in cxBladder.
This biomarker is owned by Cellmid.
Cellmid/CDY:ASX so far has not really reacted to these latest announcements.
Just a thought as a possible entry point for participants who may feel they have missed the Peb boat.
Quite a lot of research involved, wont be for everyone, but possibly worth looking into.
Not financial advice, just pointing out facts.

[Balance]

Do you mean those waiting in the wings that are hoping for a pull back in the SP? I expect it to gradually rise heading into the ASM.

Rights issue tend to cause short term price weakness in most instances.

In the case of PEB, rights issues have certainly been the bane of shareholders but with the benefit of hindsight, have been rewarding for those with fortitude and deep pockets.

[Drew95]

Cancer diagnostics company, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX:PEB), advises that it has accepted an investment offer of $22 million from ANZ New Zealand Investments, New Zealand’s largest manager of 3rd party money with NZ $33 billion funds under management.
Pacific Edge will issue 33,846,154 shares (in aggregate) to ANZ New Zealand Investments at NZ$0.65 per ordinary share, being a 14% premium over the VWAP for the 5 day trading period prior to and including 23rd of July 2020.

[nevchev]

Cancer diagnostics company, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX:PEB), advises that it has accepted an investment offer of $22 million from ANZ New Zealand Investments, New Zealand’s largest manager of 3rd party money with NZ $33 billion funds under management.
Pacific Edge will issue 33,846,154 shares (in aggregate) to ANZ New Zealand Investments at NZ$0.65 per ordinary share, being a 14% premium over the VWAP for the 5 day trading period prior to and including 23rd of July 2020.

Nice!!Money to be used at accelerate the business in the USA.Would gladly have partaken if they had asked retail investors

[Arthur]

As a special treat you can buy on market at 10% less than ANZ

[nevchev]

Chairman of Pacific Edge, Chris Gallaher, said: "The investment from ANZ New Zealand Investments adds further depth to the Company’s share register and is a reflection of the growing investor interest in Pacific Edge following our recent achievement of two major commercial milestones in the USA. The suite of Cxbladder products are rapidly being accepted as an alternative to many of the traditional testing options for bladder cancer. This additional growth capital will accelerate our commercial progress and allows us to execute on our future growth opportunities, therefore adding value for all shareholders.”

ENDS

[whatsup]

As a special treat you can buy on market at 10% less than ANZ

Not for long after todays opening prices.

[stoploss]

Incredible how much things can change in a couple of weeks.

The retrospective payments for tests already done for CMS may take some time to come through given the glacial pace at which things move in the US. They will probably need to raise some more capital to bridge the gap between the US sales really cranking up and existing funds running low. I certainly don't see them having problems raising additional funds. Possibly are placement to instos at a market premium.

The agm should be an interesting affair this year.

Good call barney .

[whatsup]

On wards and upwards from here on out with a fully funded company ready to tackle every US opportunity now, IMO we will not see the mid 50's cent share price again not forgetting that we will be having a very interesting AGM early Aug.

[jonu]

On wards and upwards from here on out with a fully funded company ready to tackle every US opportunity now, IMO we will not see the mid 50's cent share price again not forgetting that we will be having a very interesting AGM early Aug.

Very conservative call IMHO. Another positive market related release and we are headed for a buck (again IMHO)

[youngatheart]

This is now attracting the Sharesies crowd as it's now listed as its Top Daily % mover... Now that BGI has lost its shine...

[BigBob]

This is now attracting the Sharesies crowd as it's now listed as its Top Daily % mover... Now that BGI has lost its shine...

I think ARB has been captured too - 2 trades today, each trade for one share for a grand total of .33 cents... wtf...???

[tango]

The investment by ANZ looks very promising. It makes me happy that I bought my shares at less than ANZ :)

But seriously they must have done due diligence and been persuaded that they would get their investment back in triplicate. Something for us all to look forward to :D

[Davexl]

The investment by ANZ looks very promising. It makes me happy that I bought my shares at less than ANZ :)

But seriously they must have done due diligence and been persuaded that they would get their investment back in triplicate. Something for us all to look forward to :D


Same here Tango. Bought a really big block @ 54/55c on the 20th. Tickled pink to have lined up the research and the news in such an timely manner. Hold on for the ride:cool:

[Balance]

The one caution I would sound to anyone contemplating selling out and buying back lower is this - PEB today reminds me of 6/7 years ago when its sp is very prone to spike much higher on any positive news.

There should be a reasonable pipeline of potential deals (eg. John Hopkins) that the company had been working on in the last few years - any announcement will tend to accentuate the positive momentum PEB is riding with.

Accentuating the positive - that's the phase of SP action that PEB is in.

Anyone thinking of selling out and buying back lower are going to find it rather frustrating with these big gap up in the share prices on positive developments.

There is an obvious one which will be PEB's re-entry back into NZX50 index?

[jonu]

Accentuating the positive - that's the phase of SP action that PEB is in.

Anyone thinking of selling out and buying back lower are going to find it rather frustrating with these big gap up in the share prices on positive developments.

There is an obvious one which will be PEB's re-entry back into NZX50 index?

Excuse my ignorance, but what M/cap or volume turnover will trigger that? Timeframe for when these things are assessed?

[stoploss]

Excuse my ignorance, but what M/cap or volume turnover will trigger that? Timeframe for when these things are assessed?
I think you have to be 10 % bigger than the smallest constituent for a period of 6 months .... Something like this its a vague memory I have.

[baaantom]

Trading economics tells me they are already part of the NZX50 https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/stock-market.

[tango]

Same here Tango. Bought a really big block @ 54/55c on the 20th. Tickled pink to have lined up the research and the news in such an timely manner. Hold on for the ride:cool:

I was impatient. I could have bought at 55c but ended up buying at 60c. Still a good buy and am excited about the ANZ investment as a sign of good things to come.

[Balance]

Trading economics tells me they are already part of the NZX50 https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/stock-market.

https://www.investing.com/indices/nzx-50-components

Incorrect as PEB was taken out of the index a few years ago after its market cap dropped drastically.

[Balance]

Excuse my ignorance, but what M/cap or volume turnover will trigger that? Timeframe for when these things are assessed?

From banter a while ago but still applicable :


S&P took this over in June 2015
Details of their methods:
http://www.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-nzx-50-index

Rough and partial summary:
Free float
Any escrowed shares or holdings over 20% are excluded.
Holdings of 5-20% are treated case-by-case with founder and 'insider' shareholdings usually excluded.

Dual listed shares - free float is adjusted by multiplying by the % of turnover that is from NZ
Overseas listed shares - free float is adjusted by the % of shares listed in NZ

Calculation of MCAP for NZ50 purposes
= free float * average share price over the past 6 months

Change timetable
Changes are effective from third Friday of Mar Jun Sep Dec;
Announced Friday before changed;
Reference date last day of month prior.

Buffer zone - positions 45-55
To bust in, a share must be ranked 44 or above
To be kicked out, it must rank 56 or lower

As it happens there's a big gap between #44 and 45 so it's hard to break in.

Danger zone copied below - free float MCAP for current share price and average past 6 months shown.

Looks like KMD will go next review, and OGC in.
I'm not sure how KMD survived the last review - I've made an assumption that they are overseas listed, not dual listed, and have guessed their NZ shares by comparing volume traded on NZX and ASX.
Come June next year - possibly MPG out and ARV (whose share come out of escrow) or others could come in.

Figures likely to contain errors and omissions - pls let me know if you see any. They did predict PEB out / NZR in last time.
Haven't included the new insurance company listing as the free float last I checked was low.

Shares in red are not in the index.
7670

[nevchev]

Will it retrace from here or slowly climb as we get closer to ASM?Would like more of these just not sure if i should risk a wait and see approach.As has already been stated,news could come thick and fast at anytime.

[jonu]

Thanks Balance

[Leftfield]

On wards and upwards from here on out with a fully funded company ready to tackle every US opportunity now, IMO we will not see the mid 50's cent share price again not forgetting that we will be having a very interesting AGM early Aug.

Just catching up with today's news and must say I'm impressed. Great vote of confidence in the company, and those wanting an entry point should seriously consider today's SP levels.

More good news to come and higher SP now v much on the cards.

Disc - holding and happy.

[baaantom]

Managing Director at Harbour Asset reckons it's the next listing into the NZX 50 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12350720.

[tango]

Managing Director at Harbour Asset reckons it's the next listing into the NZX 50 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12350720.

Harbour are heavily invested in PEB so they are biased but so far things look promising

[Bjauck]

Cancer diagnostics company, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX:PEB), advises that it has accepted an investment offer of $22 million from ANZ New Zealand Investments, New Zealand’s largest manager of 3rd party money with NZ $33 billion funds under management.
Pacific Edge will issue 33,846,154 shares (in aggregate) to ANZ New Zealand Investments at NZ$0.65 per ordinary share, being a 14% premium over the VWAP for the 5 day trading period prior to and including 23rd of July 2020. Smart move by ANZ to make the offer before other instos. The market had not fully digested the good news that had been recently released. So even at a 15% premium, It was a quite a coup for ANZ to now own a reasonable chunk of PEB.

I am a long term holder but was too slow and missed out on adding to my holding at under 60c, so can only hope some of the ANZ purchase ends up in my KiwiSaver.

[Balance]

Thanks.

I will wait for the LCD inclusion.

Then one can be confident that there's only upside from thereon in.

Well, I did follow my own advice and I do believe that there’s only upside from here on in for the next 2 reporting periods ahead.

The capital raise via ANZ may upset a few punters who were hoping for another rights issue but you can see that other institutions not in the stock are going to have to pay up to hop onboard to beat the NZ50 index inclusion - almost a self-fulfilling event.

[Leftfield]

Welcome on board Balance!

Crikey - who would have thought!! Hope you don't hex the progress. lol.

(And yes, I do appreciate that you have always said you would re-enter when circumstances change.)

[Balance]

Welcome on board Balance!

Crikey - who would have thought!! Hope you don't hex the progress. lol.

(And yes, I do appreciate that you have always said you would re-enter when circumstances change.)

Wise saying I try to follow - ‘we cannot change what’s out of our control but we can control our approach!’

[Baa_Baa]

Not a single mention of existing shareholders dilution from the ANZ raise? 4.6% new shares. Mind you the SP has shot up so I suppose everyone is relieved they're finally getting their money back or closing the gaps from unrealised losses, or those who cannily got in and are well profitable already.

[Balance]

Not a single mention of existing shareholders dilution from the ANZ raise? 4.6% new shares. Mind you the SP has shot up so I suppose everyone is relieved they're finally getting their money back or closing the gaps from unrealised losses, or those who cannily got in and are well profitable already.

I think there would have been howls of outrage if the placement had been done at a discount to market price.

[nevchev]

I think there would have been howls of outrage if the placement had been done at a discount to market price.

Yip,for sure.Its a strong vote of confidence however and reflects the potential from here.The market is a forward looking beast and so is ANZ.GLTA

[Beat the Bank]

Thanks for all the chat on this one folks. I put a small portion of my MET sellout into this last week at 55c and woke up this morning wondering if I should risk another stab. A bit too late but glad to get the gain on a tasting parcel. Getting in before an inclusion into the index would be a good move. When does this get reviewed?
Glad it is ANZ got in here not those Swedish Pension funds or we would have had a much lower offer.

[psychic]

Yip,for sure.Its a strong vote of confidence however and reflects the potential from here.The market is a forward looking beast and so is ANZ.GLTA

Positive endorsement for sure, a pity the AUA are not so forward looking as having CxBladder as part of the go to standard is the big challenge for Pacific Edge.

AUA has just released its 2020 update:

http://www.auanet.org/guidelines/bladder-cancer-non-muscle-invasive-guideline

In surveillance of NMIBC, a clinician should not use urinary biomarkers in place of cystoscopic evaluation. (Strong Recommendation; Evidence Strength: Grade B)
In a patient with a history of low-risk cancer and a normal cystoscopy, a clinician should not routinely use a urinary biomarker or cytology during surveillance. (Expert Opinion)


From discussion doc guideline 9

The update review identified six new observational studies (in seven publications) including 1,604 participants and one systematic review relevant to this guideline statement. Since the guideline’s initial publication in 2016, several new urinary biomarkers have been developed to detect recurrent bladder cancer in NMIBC patients on surveillance.92-94 One such marker is CxBladder Monitor. It was designed as a high sensitivity rule-out test such that a negative result can be used to defer cystoscopy or confirm negative cystoscopy. In a cohort of 763 NMIBC patients on surveillance, CxBladder Monitor had a 93% sensitivity and 97% negative predictive value for recurrent NMIBC; however, the test specificity was not reported. Approximately one-third of patients had a negative test and could potentially avoid cystoscopy. The test performed well for both low- and high-grade recurrences92 and outperformed urine cytology, NMP22, and UroVysion FISH.95 While a patient with a negative test is unlikely to have recurrent NMIBC, a non-negative test requires continued cystoscopic surveillance and is not necessarily diagnostic of a recurrence. Although the early data on CxBladder Monitor are promising, further validation studies are needed to determine if a negative test is sufficient to defer surveillance cystoscopy and what the clinical implications are of a non-negative test.

From discussion doc guideline 10

The previously discussed CxBladder Monitor was designed to detect recurrent bladder cancer in NMIBC patients on surveillance. Although this biomarker performed well for intermediate- and high-risk NMIBC patients in a large cohort study, its sensitivity was only 53% in a small subset of patients with an EORTC risk score of 0, which is equivalent to AUA low-risk.92 As such, there is currently insufficient evidence to recommend CxBladder Monitor during surveillance for low-risk patients.

[Biscuit]

Started buying today, bit late perhaps but better late than never. Could be an interesting investment from here if they've finally sorted out their s***e.

[tango]

Started buying today, bit late perhaps but better late than never. Could be an interesting investment from here if they've finally sorted out their s***e.

If the predictions that this stock will make it into NZX50 are correct then you jumped on board at the right time. Most brokers haven't analysed this stock so it's not on their radar. Now is the time to get in if you have done your research and like the company and its fundamentals.

[tango]

Positive endorsement for sure, a pity the AUA are not so forward looking as having CxBladder as part of the go to standard is the big challenge for Pacific Edge.

AUA has just released its 2020 update:

http://www.auanet.org/guidelines/bladder-cancer-non-muscle-invasive-guideline

In surveillance of NMIBC, a clinician should not use urinary biomarkers in place of cystoscopic evaluation. (Strong Recommendation; Evidence Strength: Grade B)
In a patient with a history of low-risk cancer and a normal cystoscopy, a clinician should not routinely use a urinary biomarker or cytology during surveillance. (Expert Opinion)


From discussion doc guideline 9

The update review identified six new observational studies (in seven publications) including 1,604 participants and one systematic review relevant to this guideline statement. Since the guideline’s initial publication in 2016, several new urinary biomarkers have been developed to detect recurrent bladder cancer in NMIBC patients on surveillance.92-94 One such marker is CxBladder Monitor. It was designed as a high sensitivity rule-out test such that a negative result can be used to defer cystoscopy or confirm negative cystoscopy. In a cohort of 763 NMIBC patients on surveillance, CxBladder Monitor had a 93% sensitivity and 97% negative predictive value for recurrent NMIBC; however, the test specificity was not reported. Approximately one-third of patients had a negative test and could potentially avoid cystoscopy. The test performed well for both low- and high-grade recurrences92 and outperformed urine cytology, NMP22, and UroVysion FISH.95 While a patient with a negative test is unlikely to have recurrent NMIBC, a non-negative test requires continued cystoscopic surveillance and is not necessarily diagnostic of a recurrence. Although the early data on CxBladder Monitor are promising, further validation studies are needed to determine if a negative test is sufficient to defer surveillance cystoscopy and what the clinical implications are of a non-negative test.

From discussion doc guideline 10

The previously discussed CxBladder Monitor was designed to detect recurrent bladder cancer in NMIBC patients on surveillance. Although this biomarker performed well for intermediate- and high-risk NMIBC patients in a large cohort study, its sensitivity was only 53% in a small subset of patients with an EORTC risk score of 0, which is equivalent to AUA low-risk.92 As such, there is currently insufficient evidence to recommend CxBladder Monitor during surveillance for low-risk patients.

Thanks for this. A mix of good and bad news but PEB have plenty of $$$ now for further validation testing and a marketing push

[psychic]

Thanks for this. A mix of good and bad news but PEB have plenty of $$$ now for further validation testing and a marketing push

These things take time eh
Here is a list of current clinical trials (monitor, triage and detect)
The monitor study was completed back in 2016 but still no results posted. Whats that about?

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=cxbladder&draw=2&rank=2#rowId1

[ba9]

Thank you for posting this. Psyshic - Post (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd&p=831592&viewfull=1#post831592)

In his recent interview, CEO David Darling specifically answers about guidelines and adoption with reference to NCCN and AUA (American urological association)

NCCN - Reviewed ever year. Currently 2B. Pushing for 2A
AUA - Reviewed every four years. Still waiting on final release of AUA guidelines. Hoping for inclusion this time.

Below interview link - Originally posted by Carpenterjoe. Thank you.

From around 12 minutes 40 secs.
https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Interview-with-David-Darling-Edison-Talks.mp3

[psychic]

Don't really buy Dave's claim that Cxbladder has been adopted and given a 2b (weak) recommendation. The NCCN updated guidelines don't mention CxBladder specifically at all! They just reviewed the guidelines and said it was okay to also consider using Urinary biomarkers (generally?). Hardly specific support or endorsement for Cxbladder but Pacific Edge are trumpeting this is as an endorsement and really who of us here know how these things work. Perhaps the next NCCN review in 12 months will mention Cxbladder.

And now we wait another 4 years for the next AUA review? zzzzzzzzzzzz

[Minerbarejet]

In a patient with a history of low-risk cancer and a normal cystoscopy, a clinician should not routinely use a urinary biomarker or cytology during surveillance. (Expert Opinion)
This does not say they cant use it and indicates the opportunity to use it in cases where the cystoscopy is not normal as well as any other time.

As far as the AUA is concerned I think there may be some "patch protection" going on.
Every four years is no way to keep up with developments especially under the present medical disaster of Covid 19 and the need for much less contact. Some quick thinking and utilization of what is available should be taking place.
The " this is the way we have always done it" dissonance encrusted attitude suggests the wagons are being encircled as a defence to any suggestion that their predetermined gold standards might just possibly be under threat.

[Balance]

Don't really buy Dave's claim that Cxbladder has been adopted and given a 2b (weak) recommendation. The NCCN updated guidelines don't mention CxBladder specifically at all! They just reviewed the guidelines and said it was okay to also consider using Urinary biomarkers (generally?). Hardly specific support or endorsement for Cxbladder but Pacific Edge are trumpeting this is as an endorsement and really who of us here know how these things work. Perhaps the next NCCN review in 12 months will mention Cxbladder.

And now we wait another 4 years for the next AUA review? zzzzzzzzzzzz

Thanks, psychic - all information is very useful to assessing the potential for success or lack thereof for PEB in the US.

My view is very clear that PEB has been amateurish in their approach to getting Its products approved, accepted and distributed for wide use in the US.

6 long years to finally getting traction but that’s behind the company now imo. Better late than never - and PEB has been very fortunate no competing product has emerged as yet to knock its products out of the game!

Kaiser and CMS & LCD inclusion provide credibility & endorsement and PEB has actually got the cash now in the bank to aggressively market & promote its products to customers (probably the first time PEB can really splash out without sweating bricks).

I believe that’s the strong rationale for ANZ to approach PEB with its $22m offer.

[tango]

Thanks, psychic - all information is very useful to assessing the potential for success or lack thereof for PEB in the US.

My view is very clear that PEB has been amateurish in their approach to getting Its products approved, accepted and distributed for wide use in the US.

6 long years to finally getting traction but that’s behind the company now imo. Better late than never - and PEB has been very fortunate no competing product has emerged as yet to knock its products out of the game!

Kaiser and CMS & LCD inclusion provide credibility & endorsement and PEB has actually got the cash now in the bank to aggressively market & promote its products to customers (probably the first time PEB can really splash out without sweating bricks).

I believe that’s the strong rationale for ANZ to approach PEB with its $22m offer.

Interesting comment. I am relatively new to PEB but catching up.
A lot of these companies have great products but poor marketing. Hopefully they now have the right people and plan in place. They certainly have the funds...

[davflaws]

Wise saying I try to follow - ‘we cannot change what’s out of our control but we can control our approach!’

And is it too much to hope that you will also be able to control your visceral distaste for any party, process, or proceeding that is even a smidgen to the left of centre right? Or even find a kinder or wittier way to poke at the things about the world you so obviously detest?

[Harrie]

And is it too much to hope that you will also be able to control your visceral distaste for any party, process, or proceeding that is even a smidgen to the left of centre right? Or even find a kinder or wittier way to poke at the things about the world you so obviously detest?

So you want someone else to control your destiny?

[Davexl]

In a patient with a history of low-risk cancer and a normal cystoscopy, a clinician should not routinely use a urinary biomarker or cytology during surveillance. (Expert Opinion)
This does not say they cant use it and indicates the opportunity to use it in cases where the cystoscopy is not normal as well as any other time.

As far as the AUA is concerned I think there may be some "patch protection" going on.
Every four years is no way to keep up with developments especially under the present medical disaster of Covid 19 and the need for much less contact. Some quick thinking and utilization of what is available should be taking place.
The " this is the way we have always done it" dissonance encrusted attitude suggests the wagons are being encircled as a defence to any suggestion that their predetermined gold standards might just possibly be under threat.



Your idea of patch protection rings true for me also. Medical specialties are notoriously conservative, mostly for good reasons, but slow to adapt, particularly in a litigious / risk averse environment. It seems however that with the CX Bladder suite of tests that risk aversion is swinging in their favour. Kaiser & CMS have recognised this. It will be interesting to see the % take-up of CX Bladder vs cystoscopy in the next couple of years.

[nevchev]

We all do our best to asses the companies we invest in.Research is key in any type of investment but it gives me some peace of mind when the professionals take an interest in the company knowing they have given it due diligence. Happy to see ANZ along for the ride and 22m is a big slice of confidence.

[nztx]

We all do our best to asses the companies we invest in.Research is key in any type of investment but it gives me some peace of mind when the professionals take an interest in the company knowing they have given it due diligence. Happy to see ANZ along for the ride and 22m is a big slice of confidence.

Agree there Nevchev .. I bounced into this one a week or so back, only regret: not buying more ;)

[Minerbarejet]

These things take time eh
Here is a list of current clinical trials (monitor, triage and detect)
The monitor study was completed back in 2016 but still no results posted. Whats that about?

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=cxbladder&draw=2&rank=2#rowId1

Hi Psychic
This is from an interested bystander in reply to your Monitor results query.

GenomeWeb: Pacific Edge Bladder Cancer Recurrence Test Outperforms Others in Head-to-Head Comparison.

CxBladder Monitor Trial finished in 2016, follow the link and you will see there were 803 enrolled participants.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02700659?term=cxbladder&draw=1&rank=1

If you follow this link:

https://www.cxbladder.com/nz/news/2017/genomeweb-pacific-edge-bladder-cancer-recurrence-test-outperforms-others-in-head-to-head-comparison/

you will find the associated study, the researchers collected a total of 1,036 urine samples from 803 patients undergoing surveillance for urothelial carcinoma. Of these, 1,016 samples were directly assessed using Cxbladder Monitor, cytology, NMP22 Bladderchek, and NMP22 ELISA.

[davflaws]

So you want someone else to control your destiny?

Politically, I am centre left. But "controlling" my "destiny" sounds a bit bigger than my views on the performance of the current government.

I didn't frame my post to Balance very well. I sound slightly ****ty whereas I was intending a gentle "poke".

I would like it if we could all try to be a little kinder to each other and I believed that the world would be a better place if we could individually behave better long before the PM stole my idea. - That's socialism for ya!

[Leftfield]

Back to PEB... (please let's keep Politics out of this thread folks)

Some weekend musings re the ANZ buy in:

1.) It puts a 'floor' on the SP at around the 50c buy-in price. Those of us who have an average holding SP close or below to this price should do very well long term. Exciting times ahead.
2.) Other institutions will now want to get on board PEB and will have to pay a premium over ANZ's holding (Particularly if PEB gets NZX50 inclusion)
3.) Financially I don't expect too much from PEB in FY21 primarily due to the Covid effect and much depends on how successful they are in reclaiming the costs of previous uncharged CMS tests which could add roughly $8 - $10 mill to the revenue.
4.) By FY22 PEB should be making real progress in terms of both acceptance of its technology and its revenue/profits.
5.) A doubling or tripling of the SP in the next 2 years is not an unreasonable expectation.

GLH

[Longhaul]

What about the potential for a buyout from a bigger fish? I suspect PEB looks a lot tastier with the recent milestones.

[Leftfield]

What about the potential for a buyout from a bigger fish? I suspect PEB looks a lot tastier with the recent milestones.

Agree.....would hate to see it happen...but if it does happen I would expect a huge premium on recent prices and pocket the gains.

[Minerbarejet]

The US is fighting a war with Covid.
A mate of mine pointed out at one stage that when you are fighting a war you will not be waiting around for government or bureaucratic approval on the latest whizbang instead of using your supplied ammunition.
The same applies to PEB, they have the ammunition to deal with Monitoring Bladder Cancer patients away from overloaded medical facilities thereby saving a lot of unnecessary expense and helping reduce exposure to Covid.
I think it has finally dawned on KP, CMS et al that this is a viable option under the current circumstances and I would not be surprised to see a fairly brisk uptake.
If it turns out to be a satisfactory and useful addition under Covid, Monitor could well become the go to application overall once and if Covid ends.

Hope there is enough space at the US Lab - it seems to be in a rather large building so probably no worries there.

[Minerbarejet]

Agree.....would hate to see it happen...but if it does happen I would expect a huge premium on recent prices and pocket the gains.
I believe PEB has the rights to all Cancer research developments conducted by the University of Otago.
Would expect a rather large "over my dead body" from them if that is the case
Cant really see the University of Otago sending their research outside the country to some "BIG PHARMA"

[tango]

I believe PEB has the rights to all Cancer research developments conducted by the University of Otago.
Would expect a rather large "over my dead body" from them if that is the case
Cant really see the University of Otago sending their research outside the country to some "BIG PHARMA"

I don’t see the research going to big pharma as a problem. The University will want the best possible uptake from their research.

[nevchev]

Agree there Nevchev .. I bounced into this one a week or so back, only regret: not buying more ;)

Not to late to get a few more in my opion.I think good news will come thick and fast over the next 12 months but not sure that the sp will stay at these prices for long.cheers

[psychic]

Hi Psychic
This is from an interested bystander in reply to your Monitor results query.

GenomeWeb: Pacific Edge Bladder Cancer Recurrence Test Outperforms Others in Head-to-Head Comparison.

CxBladder Monitor Trial finished in 2016, follow the link and you will see there were 803 enrolled participants.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02700659?term=cxbladder&draw=1&rank=1

If you follow this link:

https://www.cxbladder.com/nz/news/2017/genomeweb-pacific-edge-bladder-cancer-recurrence-test-outperforms-others-in-head-to-head-comparison/

you will find the associated study, the researchers collected a total of 1,036 urine samples from 803 patients undergoing surveillance for urothelial carcinoma. Of these, 1,016 samples were directly assessed using Cxbladder Monitor, cytology, NMP22 Bladderchek, and NMP22 ELISA.


Many thanks & hi Miner
Yeah I had the feeling that this trial had lead to the Monitorining Study. But I was more intrigued by the entry on the Clinical Trials site that the results had not been posted. The thing for me is that the AUA has just come out saying Monitor should not be used because it requires further validation and (or as?) Specificity had not been reported. (Well, that was my take from it anyway)

Both Primary and Secondary Outcomes from the Trial were to report Specificity (and Sensitivity etc.) It hasn't been. And the AUA seem to want this.

Any ideas why they would not/ could not report on Specificity or what PE are doing about further studies? I know that there was that Study in from the DHB's here in NZ and I 'm guessing that was the one needed for LCD to demonstrate Clinical Utility but it doesn't sem to have satisfied the AUA. Cheers

[Minerbarejet]

Many thanks & hi Miner
Yeah I had the feeling that this trial had lead to the Monitorining Study. But I was more intrigued by the entry on the Clinical Trials site that the results had not been posted. The thing for me is that the AUA has just come out saying Monitor should not be used because it requires further validation and (or as?) Specificity had not been reported. (Well, that was my take from it anyway)

Both Primary and Secondary Outcomes from the Trial were to report Specificity (and Sensitivity etc.) It hasn't been. And the AUA seem to want this.

Any ideas why they would not/ could not report on Specificity or what PE are doing about further studies? I know that there was that Study in from the DHB's here in NZ and I 'm guessing that was the one needed for LCD to demonstrate Clinical Utility but it doesn't sem to have satisfied the AUA. Cheers

The "interested bystander" was quick to respond with the information below.

The published results from Clinical Trial Reference: NCT02700659 were published in the Journal of Urology June 2017.

Performance Characteristics of a Multigene Urine Biomarker Test for Monitoring for Recurrent Urothelial Carcinoma in a Multicenter Study.


Results:
Cxbladder Monitor showed an internally validated sensitivity of 0.93 with a negative predictive value of 0.97 and a test negative rate of 0.34. Sensitivity was 0.95 for recurrent disease with a high risk of progression (all high grade disease and low grade, stage T1 or greater disease) compared with 0.86 for low grade Ta disease. Subgroup analyses indicated that diagnostic performance was not significantly different in different age groups, or by gender or tumor stage. Sensitivity was not affected by adjuvant bacillus Calmette-Gu鲩n treatment within the last 6 months. False-negative findings were reported in fewer than 1.5% of all samples collected.

Conclusions:
The Cxbladder Monitor test offers combined high sensitivity and high negative predictive value to rule out urothelial carcinoma. This test has clinical utility as a confirmatory negative adjunct to cystoscopy, potentially justifying the postponement/avoidance of Cystoscopic investigations to monitor recurrence in patients.

All good
Miner

[Davexl]

Thank you Miner and "interested bystander" whoever you are...Most reassuring statements...

[nevchev]

Cheers miner.The tide is obviously turning in favour of non invasive diagnostics

[psychic]

The "interested bystander" was quick to respond with the information below.

The published results from Clinical Trial Reference: NCT02700659 were published in the Journal of Urology June 2017.

Performance Characteristics of a Multigene Urine Biomarker Test for Monitoring for Recurrent Urothelial Carcinoma in a Multicenter Study.


Results:
Cxbladder Monitor showed an internally validated sensitivity of 0.93 with a negative predictive value of 0.97 and a test negative rate of 0.34. Sensitivity was 0.95 for recurrent disease with a high risk of progression (all high grade disease and low grade, stage T1 or greater disease) compared with 0.86 for low grade Ta disease. Subgroup analyses indicated that diagnostic performance was not significantly different in different age groups, or by gender or tumor stage. Sensitivity was not affected by adjuvant bacillus Calmette-Gu鲩n treatment within the last 6 months. False-negative findings were reported in fewer than 1.5% of all samples collected.

Conclusions:
The Cxbladder Monitor test offers combined high sensitivity and high negative predictive value to rule out urothelial carcinoma. This test has clinical utility as a confirmatory negative adjunct to cystoscopy, potentially justifying the postponement/avoidance of Cystoscopic investigations to monitor recurrence in patients.

All good
Miner

Thanks Miner, but If I recall correctly NPV depends on prevelence, we still do not have Specificity and this is what the AUA has said is missing.

[Lewylewylewy]

Does anyone have any opinions they'd like to share around how many tests they expect peb to sell in the next 12 months, given recent developments?

[Snow Leopard]

Does anyone have any opinions they'd like to share around how many tests they expect peb to sell in the next 12 months, given recent developments?

2.27 Swans

[Tsuba]

Would just like to take my hat off to Balance for showing humility and giving credit to how things are playing out now. Has been a long road for many. Few more miles to go but getting there.

[Balance]

Would just like to take my hat off to Balance for showing humility and giving credit to how things are playing out now. Has been a long road for many. Few more miles to go but getting there.



Have learnt the hard lesson to not buy or stay in stocks like PEB on the way down when the story changes from positive to negative, but to invest on the way up as the story gets better and better.

This strategy is to let those who are prepared to bear the risk (and pain) to take the loss or the first 100% upside on a speculative stock like PEB but ride the next 1000% by buying off the hardy (or foolish) risk takers when the story turns.

I must say that I am surprised at how quickly the sp has spiked upwards in a matter of less than 2 months with the 3 positive announcements to date.

There have been over 400m shares issued in the last 6 years at between 10c to 61c, and I would have thought that there would be enough profit takers to provide stock at various points on the way up when the story turns.

Has not turned out to be the case with the sp doubling and doubling again with the first two announcements.

Certainly points towards the big shareholders staying in for the long haul - guess they have suffered and endured 6 long years of non-performance so they must assess the upside from here to be much more than just recovering the money they have put in!

[Leftfield]

Have learnt the hard lesson to not buy stocks like PEB on the way down when the story changes, but to invest on the way up as the story gets better and better.

I must say that I am surprised at just how quickly the sp has spiked upwards in a matter of 2 months with the 3 positive announcements to date.

Agree..... it's all about the trend. For the last 6 years (or so) PEB has been on a down trend.

The following TA chart shows just quickly PEB changed from this prolonged downtrend via a 'golden cross' in May of this year. This crossing and the large volumes that started trading along with a sharply rising MACD in June/July show an almost classic trend reversal.

11813

For those of us who are holding it's now just a matter of sitting tight and riding the rising trend. (Maybe buying more on positive news.)

It's all about DCA and keeping a 'safety margin' between your average holding SP and the current market SP.

GLH.

[Brain]

Have learnt the hard lesson to not buy or stay in stocks like PEB on the way down when the story changes from positive to negative, but to invest on the way up as the story gets better and better.

I think that it is best to stay away from IPOs in general. Always too much hype and expectation from investors particularly for the “back door jobs”. When the dust settles good Opportunities may present themselves. PEB is a good example. I dabbled with it a few years ago and got out at a loss. Purchased again at 26 c after the good news about kaiser. Plexure also shows some promise although the jury is still out. I am also very interested in Bliss,Ike and QEX.

[whatsup]

Agree..... it's all about the trend. For the last 6 years (or so) PEB has been on a down trend.

The following TA chart shows just quickly PEB changed from this prolonged downtrend via a 'golden cross' in May of this year. This crossing and the large volumes that started trading along with a sharply rising MACD in June/July show an almost classic trend reversal.

11813

For those of us who are holding it's now just a matter of sitting tight and riding the rising trend. (Maybe buying more on positive news.)

It's all about DCA and keeping a 'safety margin' between your average holding SP and the current market SP.

GLH.

and it aint going to stop here , will be north of a buck before this year is out !

[nevchev]

and it aint going to stop here , will be north of a buck before this year is out !
Wow.great open.it could be a buck by the end of the month!!!

[whatsup]

Looks like the sharsies mob have caught the bug, up 11% already.

[drcjp]

Just some general thoughts.
If PEB became a buyout target in next 12-24 months, in order to justify a SP of >$1 it would need to generate annual revenue in the vicinity of USD$180M
This would mean an annual turnover of tests in the range of 220,000-250,000. I believe the number of cases of BC would justify this (isn't it 800,000 cases with 80,000 new p.a?). Each case would be tested more than once.
Biotechs will be bought in general for 4-4.5x ann rev if the product is guideline indicated and ins covered. They have one of those two.
Markets are funny things but imo they really need to get guideline support to justify going over $1

[Dentie]

Looks line the sharsies mob have caught the bug, up 11% already.

Well, if the sharesies mob are spending an average of circa $350 each in order to get circa 500 shares and its pushing the long termers' holdings up 11% (today so far)...then all power to them. I hope they tell their mates about PEB!

[whatsup]

Just some general thoughts.
If PEB became a buyout target in next 12-24 months, in order to justify a SP of >$1 it would need to generate annual revenue in the vicinity of USD$180M
This would mean an annual turnover of tests in the range of 220,000-250,000. I believe the number of cases of BC would justify this (isn't it 800,000 cases with 80,000 new p.a?). Each case would be tested more than once.
Biotechs will be bought in general for 4-4.5x ann rev if the product is guideline indicated and ins covered. They have one of those two.
Markets are funny things but imo they really need to get guideline support to justify going over $1

any T/O will not be made on "todays' numbers its the futures figures that matter, " if " this testing is as good as we are led to believe then the numbers could be staggering and its valuation interesting to say the least !!

[Mel]

I've learnt a few lessons with this stock, having bought some at $1.30 (yes, you read that correctly!), bought options at two points in time and regretting the fact that I sold one of the option allotments at a very small profit to make myself feel better about the $1.30 pricepoint! - of course, wishing that I had retained this allotment. PEB has always had potential to appreciate but given the number of factors that play into the success (or lack thereof) of a company, I for one, am thankful that I have maintained some faith in them and retained the majority of my holding and I believe that there is potential for this stock to break the $1 mark within a few months on the back of some positive testing developments. Lots of good things take time :)

[Beagle]

Have learnt the hard lesson to not buy or stay in stocks like PEB on the way down when the story changes from positive to negative, but to invest on the way up as the story gets better and better.

This strategy is to let those who are prepared to bear the risk (and pain) to take the loss or the first 100% upside on a speculative stock like PEB but ride the next 1000% by buying off the hardy (or foolish) risk takers when the story turns.

I must say that I am surprised at how quickly the sp has spiked upwards in a matter of less than 2 months with the 3 positive announcements to date.

There have been over 400m shares issued in the last 6 years at between 10c to 61c, and I would have thought that there would be enough profit takers to provide stock at various points on the way up when the story turns.

Has not turned out to be the case with the sp doubling and doubling again with the first two announcements.

Certainly points towards the big shareholders staying in for the long haul - guess they have suffered and endured 6 long years of non-performance so they must assess the upside from here to be much more than just recovering the money they have put in!

Every dog has its day mate. This one may be due to bark again if it gets included in the NZX50 at the next rebalancing.

[uluvsg]

Every dog has its day mate. This one may be due to bark again if it gets included in the NZX50 at the next rebalancing.

Hello Mr.Beagle, do you know when the NZX50 rebalancing date is? Thanks!

[Balance]

Wow.great open.it could be a buck by the end of the month!!!


Every dog has its day mate. This one may be due to bark again if it gets included in the NZX50 at the next rebalancing.

The way the sp is going reminds me of 2013/2014 when the sp went up sharply every time there's positive news or development.

Let's hope this time that it is for real and sustainable.

Be great to ride another good story like some have with ATM, EBO and DIL but to name 3.

When a story is good, ride it hard - that's another valuable lesson I have learnt from regretable experiences of selling out too soon - there are only so many good stories out there.

[whatsup]

The way the sp is going reminds me of 2013/2014 when the sp went up sharply every time there's positive news or development.

Let's hope this time that it is for real and sustainable.

Be great to ride another good story like some have with ATM, EBO and DIL but to name 3.

When a story is good, ride it hard - that's another valuable lesson I have learnt from regretable experiences of selling out too soon - there are only so many good stories out there.


that " movement " was , if I remember correctly , and I did hear the interview on morning report that morning , caused by the comment from one of the fish heads, that PEB would/should achieve $100,000,000 in sales with its new testing procedure.

That imo caused a huge interest shortly after driving its S P up to over $1-50 in a couple of days, the rest is history as we all know, some things take time.

[Minerbarejet]

7 million cases of haematuria per annum in the US requiring medical assistance of some sort.
Thats 28000 per working day.!!
Current Covid run rate in the US requiring medical assistance of some sort
Thats 65000 per day.!!
So now we have medical facilities in the US being overrun at twice the rate of haematuria presentations.
Covid tests cant be arranged or done online but cxBladder can utilize this approach for haematuria and other related Bladder Cancer problems thereby freeing up more facilities for an already stressed medical juggernaut.

[Beagle]

The way the sp is going reminds me of 2013/2014 when the sp went up sharply every time there's positive news or development.

Let's hope this time that it is for real and sustainable.

Be great to ride another good story like some have with ATM, EBO and DIL but to name 3.

When a story is good, ride it hard - that's another valuable lesson I have learnt from regretable experiences of selling out too soon - there are only so many good stories out there.

Worth a punt even just on the possibility of NZX50 inclusion - Friday 18 September could see quite a decent bounce if this is included in the index. Shunted some of my MET profits in here.

[nztx]

Today's SP seems to be well & truly edging upwards , against the general Monday downwards trend today

How much of this was out of ANZ's foray into PEB & how much on the Company announcement(s)

Discl. On a small holding up 25+ % in less than 4 weeks

[Beat the Bank]

Worth a punt even just on the possibility of NZX50 inclusion - Friday 18 September could see quite a decent bounce if this is included in the index. Shunted some of my MET profits in here.

Glad to have you on board Beagle. I put a small portion of my MET sale into this last week before the increase. As someone said earlier, it feels good to have got in before ANZ and now before the Beagle too! Thanks for all your commentary on MET and OCA and so glad we may get it on this thread too.