PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Davexl]

Worth a punt even just on the possibility of NZX50 inclusion - Friday 18 September could see quite a decent bounce if this is included in the index. Shunted some of my MET profits in here.

Hi Beagle - Welcome aboard. Just wondering where that Index Rebalancing date comes from. Is it Quarterly perhaps? Cheers...

Sorry, missed it from Balances post:

Change timetable
Changes are effective from third Friday of Mar Jun Sep Dec;
Announced Friday before changed;
Reference date last day of month prior.

[davflaws]

Have learnt the hard lesson to not buy or stay in stocks like PEB on the way down when the story changes from positive to negative, but to invest on the way up as the story gets better and better.

This strategy is to let those who are prepared to bear the risk (and pain) to take the loss or the first 100% upside on a speculative stock like PEB but ride the next 1000% by buying off the hardy (or foolish) risk takers when the story turns.

I must say that I am surprised at how quickly the sp has spiked upwards in a matter of less than 2 months with the 3 positive announcements to date.

There have been over 400m shares issued in the last 6 years at between 10c to 61c, and I would have thought that there would be enough profit takers to provide stock at various points on the way up when the story turns.

Has not turned out to be the case with the sp doubling and doubling again with the first two announcements.

Certainly points towards the big shareholders staying in for the long haul - guess they have suffered and endured 6 long years of non-performance so they must assess the upside from here to be much more than just recovering the money they have put in!

Kia ora Balance
Thank you so much for that post. It is the most useful thing I have read on this thread for a very long time.

[Beagle]

I've learnt a few lessons with this stock, having bought some at $1.30 (yes, you read that correctly!), bought options at two points in time and regretting the fact that I sold one of the option allotments at a very small profit to make myself feel better about the $1.30 pricepoint! - of course, wishing that I had retained this allotment. PEB has always had potential to appreciate but given the number of factors that play into the success (or lack thereof) of a company, I for one, am thankful that I have maintained some faith in them and retained the majority of my holding and I believe that there is potential for this stock to break the $1 mark within a few months on the back of some positive testing developments. Lots of good things take time :) Like Mainland Vintage Cheese, sorry, couldn't resist :)


Hello Mr.Beagle, do you know when the NZX50 rebalancing date is? Thanks!
Welcome to the forum, see below.


Glad to have you on board Beagle. I put a small portion of my MET sale into this last week before the increase. As someone said earlier, it feels good to have got in before ANZ and now before the Beagle too! Thanks for all your commentary on MET and OCA and so glad we may get it on this thread too.
Good effort beating both ANZ and the fat lazy Beagle !


Hi Beagle - Welcome aboard. Just wondering where that Index Rebalancing date comes from. Is it Quarterly perhaps? Cheers...

Sorry, missed it from Balances post:

Change timetable
[B]Changes are effective from third Friday of Mar Jun Sep Dec;
Announced Friday before changed;
Reference date last day of month prior.

You're on too it !

[Mel]

Appreciate your comments and insights on a number of threads Beagle (so need to apologise for the Mainland comment)!!

[Merc]

Today we did a reasonably regular trip with me in the passenger seat. 4 hours on the road travelling from the south to the north. Having long ago given up the enjoyment of counting cows

[Minerbarejet]

Today we did a reasonably regular trip with me in the passenger seat. 4 hours on the road travelling from the south to the north. Having long ago given up the enjoyment of counting cows
Be glad there are cows there to count.
I take it you missed most of the PEB SP action during your trip.
Are there further updates on this?

[Merc]

Be glad there are cows there to count.
I take it you missed most of the PEB SP action during your trip.
Are there further updates on this?
Actually yes. The full post didn't post, autosave only saved a small bit, and when I reposted it and realized what had happened it didn't delete it.

Far from missing the excitement on the share price I watched it with great interest and learnt a lot about the psychology of share purchases.

There were both big trades and little trades all happening at once. Refreshing the page every few seconds for a while showed a MASSIVE amount of trades.

And it was fascinating to see that a number of traders couldn't see the difference between SELL price, BUY price and MARKET price.

For example, when the share price hit 80 cents someone went, "Oh look. The price has hit my ideal of 80 cents so I'll sell." Rather than list them at 80 cents they sold at Market Price to the buyer who wanted them for 79 cents.

[jonu]

For example, when the share price hit 80 cents someone went, "Oh look. The price has hit my ideal of 80 cents so I'll sell." Rather than list them at 80 cents they sold at Market Price to the buyer who wanted them for 79 cents.

How do you know what they were thinking?

[Merc]

How do you know what they were thinking?

Having the time to watch it and with the volume of trades it became clear there was a repeating pattern.

My best guess is the shares will fluctuate in the 75 to 79 cent range until one of two things happen. Unexpected out of the blue good news (which could happen at any time) or the AGM which will give a guide to the near future. Up or Down.

[pierre]

Having the time to watch it and with the volume of trades it became clear there was a repeating pattern.

My best guess is the shares will fluctuate in the 75 to 79 cent range until one of two things happen. Unexpected out of the blue good news (which could happen at any time) or the AGM which will give a guide to the near future. Up or Down.

Maybe even sideways? (Just to cover all the bases) :)

[Waltzing]

surely now this has a long way to run..did the beagle beat us all again..prehaps better then OCA at last?

[Merc]

Maybe even sideways? (Just to cover all the bases) :)
LOL. Sideways is also on the cards.

Having first bought back in 2013, riden the wave up, then down (and bought a few extra shares along the way) and finally seeing a capital profit... I'm optimistic it will be UP.

But after 7 years of patience a year or more more sideways won't hurt.

[nevchev]

Seems the profit taking may have slowed.ASM in a week so not long till we get some guidance and possibly some more good news

[Balance]

Seems the profit taking may have slowed.ASM in a week so not long till we get some guidance and possibly some more good news

Big week next week.

[jonu]

Big week next week.

Yes, and roll on 11 Sept when the adjustments/changes to NZX50 are announced, taking effect from Sept 18.

[nevchev]

Yes, and roll on 11 Sept when the adjustments/changes to NZX50 are announced, taking effect from Sept 18.
I dont think thats guaranteed but certainly would add confidence

[Cadalac123]

sorry wrong thread.

[jonu]

I dont think thats guaranteed but certainly would add confidence

Not guaranteed, especially this quarter, but these things become a self fulfilling prophecy. When a stock looks close to entering, institutions begin positioning themselves. Joe Blogs sees this and jumps in. Once announced the institutions then balance up their holdings causing a further lift. The opposite can occur in the other direction.

[Balance]

Not guaranteed, especially this quarter, but these things become a self fulfilling prophecy. When a stock looks close to entering, institutions begin positioning themselves. Joe Blogs sees this and jumps in. Once announced the institutions then balance up their holdings causing a further lift. The opposite can occur in the other direction.


Current market cap - $550m, and all free float with no cornerstone shareholders.

Bigger than NZX stock itself and SKL and remember that Metlife will definitely be gone by December 2020.

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/357089/327343.pdf

Harbour sold 7m shares at average price of 68.4c.

[nevchev]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/357089/327343.pdf

Harbour sold 7m shares at average price of 68.4c.
Fair enough.doubled their money in a short time.

[Balance]

Fair enough.doubled their money in a short time.

More than doubled actually.

[nevchev]

More than doubled actually.
Yes,they done well.Others have taken some short term profit but i think ill wait it out.everytime i think ill take some of the table it goes up
Was that an off market sale?
4 trading trading days till the ASM....all aboard

[Balance]

Yes,they done well.Others have taken some short term profit but i think ill wait it out.everytime i think ill take some of the table it goes up
Was that an off market sale?

On market.

You misread me, nevchev - I do not have any issue whatsoever with Harbour selling.

In fact, my strategy of buying into an uptrend when things turned is predicated upon players like Harbour selling - they have taken the big risk so deserve the reward.

If they all stubbornly hold on, the sp will be $1.50 now and probably, $2.00 comes indexing into NZX50!

ATM is a good case in point of sellers providing 'cheap' stock all the way from 60c to $10 - even while they realized huge gains from taking the initial risks. Good on them and good on those who bought off them, right?

[jonu]

On market.

You misread me, nevchev - I do not have any issue whatsoever with Harbour selling.

In fact, my strategy of buying into an uptrend when things turned is predicated upon players like Harbour selling - they have taken the big risk so deserve the reward.

Probably partly strategic from Harbour as well. Them selling a portion at average 68 raises the baseline average buying price of holders and probably makes the SP lift more sustainable in the long term.

[nevchev]

On market.

You misread me, nevchev - I do not have any issue whatsoever with Harbour selling.

In fact, my strategy of buying into an uptrend when things turned is predicated upon players like Harbour selling - they have taken the big risk so deserve the reward.

If they all stubbornly hold on, the sp will be $1.50 now and probably, $2.00 comes indexing into NZX50!

ATM is a good case in point of sellers providing 'cheap' stock all the way from 60c to $10 - even while they realized huge gains from taking the initial risks. Good on them and good on those who bought off them, right?
Agree.i was one of those who sold!In at 50c and out at $5(hard lesson to learn but i did ok out of it).Alot of potential here also so wont be trading it.To risky with possible announcements coming out of the blue

[Balance]

Agree.i was one of those who sold!In at 50c and out at $5(hard lesson to learn but i did ok out of it).Alot of potential here also so wont be trading it.To risky with possible announcements coming out of the blue

Old saying which has served me well over the years :

"Let your profits run and cut your losses."

Heard it when I started investing in shares and one ignores those old sayings at your own peril!

[nevchev]

Old saying which has served me well over the years :

"Let your profits run and cut your losses."

Heard it when I started investing in shares and one ignores those old sayings at your own peril!
I have wisdom but only in hindsight. One of the first shares i ever bought was FPH at $1.80.I gave it a month and thought"well,this aint doing much"

[BigBob]

Old saying which has served me well over the years :

"Let your profits run and cut your losses."

Heard it when I started investing in shares and one ignores those old sayings at your own peril!

Don't disagree with that one, but another one of my favourites has to be "Noone ever went broke taking a profit"...

[Balance]

Don't disagree with that one, but another one of my favourites has to be "Noone ever went broke taking a profit"...

Then, there's 'The trend is your friend' and ' Sleep with dogs, you get fleas.'

[BigBob]

Then, there's 'The trend is your friend' and ' Sleep with dogs, you get fleas.'

"It's not timing the market, it's time in the market"

Maybe we need another thread... :-)

[Balance]

"It's not timing the market, it's time in the market"



Now that is most appropriate for the long (6 years of ever declining sp and missed milestones) suffering shareholders in PEB! :eek2:

[TideMan]

Well, I'm one of the mugs who bought in at an average price of 122 back in 2014 and believed DD's BS when he said success was just around the corner.
So I hung on to the shares. Now, I vow never to be caught like that again.
But I may yet be a winner..........

[BigBob]

Now that is most appropriate for the long (6 years of ever declining sp and missed milestones) suffering shareholders in PEB! :eek2:

Hahaha - yes, and one that I actually lived with for the full 6 years... :-)

With a few top ups throughout the journey, I look like a genius now...

However, that particular saying is one of my least favourites and I am adamant that I shall not be stuck underwater to the same extent ever again...

[Balance]

Well, I'm one of the mugs who bought in at an average price of 122 back in 2014 and believed DD's BS when he said success was just around the corner.
So I hung on to the shares. Now, I vow never to be caught like that again.
But I may yet be a winner..........

Many of us did.

Some bought at $1.50+!

Have to be alert to the turning points in a stock.

[whatsup]

Agree.i was one of those who sold!In at 50c and out at $5(hard lesson to learn but i did ok out of it).Alot of potential here also so wont be trading it.To risky with possible announcements coming out of the blue

nev, cannot remember when PEB was $5-00, please refresh me ?

[bibbidybop]

nev, cannot remember when PEB was $5-00, please refresh me ?

I think nev was referring to ATM

[BigBob]

nev, cannot remember when PEB was $5-00, please refresh me ?

He was talking about ATM...

[nevchev]

nev, cannot remember when PEB was $5-00, please refresh me ?
We were talking about ATM

[nevchev]

He was talking about ATM...

Cheers bob.you beat me to it!

[whatsup]

We were talking about ATM

Great, thought that I had missed something.

[nevchev]

I think nev was referring to ATM
Cheers bibbidybop.Is their ASM televized?

[bibbidybop]

Cheers bibbidybop.Is their ASM televized?

Looks to be online, the following is from their notice.

Notice is hereby given that the 2020 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting of Pacific Edge Limited willbe held online at http://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/peb2020 on Wednesday 5 August 2020,commencing at 3.00pm.

[tango]

... deleted

[nevchev]

Looks to be online, the following is from their notice.

Notice is hereby given that the 2020 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting of Pacific Edge Limited willbe held online at http://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/peb2020 on Wednesday 5 August 2020,commencing at 3.00pm.
Thanks for that

[Pegasus2000]

does the total number of shares get diluted? AMP bought more shares but percentage down to 4.74% from 5.50%.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/357168/327427.pdf (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/357168/327427.pdf)
AMP Capital Investors (New Zealand) Limited
For last disclosure,
--(a) total number held in class: 25,644,970
(b) total in class: 466,321,801
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.50%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,
(a) total number held in class: 34,330,651
(b) total in class: 724,143,563
(c) total percentage he

ld in class: 4.74%
Details of transactions and events giving rise to ceasing of substantial holdingDetails of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure: Purchase of 8,685,681 Shares. between 01-Mar-2018 and 28-Jul-2020

[nevchev]

Bit confused by this
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357168
Didnt check the dates.AMP have increased their holding by 9m or so.All good

[Minerbarejet]

Bit confused by this
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357168
Didnt check the dates.AMP have increased their holding by 9m or so.All good

Suspect that the law of unintended consequences has struck.
It may be the result of the 33 million increase in ANZ holdings that has changed AMP from having a substantial holding (over 5%) to not having a SSH( less than 5%) despite the purchase of more shares.

Since the date of last disclosure in March 2018 there have been several capital raisings and each time AMP may have participated but not getting enough to maintain the 5.5% and has been inching down slowly towards 5%
ANZ suddenly stumping up for 33 million new shares may have dropped their percentage below the 5% threshold.
Will be interesting to see if they are keen to resume their former status by buying even more thereby precipitating another disclosure notice.

[nevchev]

does the total number of shares get diluted? AMP bought more shares but percentage down to 4.74% from 5.50%.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/357168/327427.pdf (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/357168/327427.pdf)
AMP Capital Investors (New Zealand) Limited
For last disclosure,
--(a) total number held in class: 25,644,970
(b) total in class: 466,321,801
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.50%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,
(a) total number held in class: 34,330,651
(b) total in class: 724,143,563
(c) total percentage held in class: 4.74%
Details of transactions and events giving rise to ceasing of substantial holdingDetails of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure: Purchase of 8,685,681 Shares. between 01-Mar-2018 and 28-Jul-2020
Their last disclosure was in 2018 when there were less shares.Good to see them buying more.Another vote of confidence

[Pegasus2000]

yes, ANZ 33 million might be the cause of AMP percentage drop to 4.74% as Minerbarejet (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?11575-Minerbarejet) mentioned. Cheers.

[nevchev]

yes, ANZ 33 million might be the cause of AMP percentage drop to 4.74% as Minerbarejet (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?11575-Minerbarejet) mentioned. Cheers.
No.If you look at their last disclosure there were 466m(2018)There is now 724m thus they have less than 5%

[clip]

No.If you look at their last disclosure there were 466m(2018)There is now 724m thus they have less than 5%

If they had more than 5% with 466m in 2018, and they now have 724m, then more shares (the 33m allocated to ANZ) have to have been issued for them to drop below 5%. I believe those extra issued shares are the cause of the disclosure from AMP

[Minerbarejet]

Several capital raisings since 2018 that AMP have not participated in that brought the total to 691m and AMP maintaining an over 5% holding to the point where ANZ splashed out.

[nevchev]

If they had more than 5% with 466m in 2018, and they now have 724m, then more shares (the 33m allocated to ANZ) have to have been issued for them to drop below 5%. I believe those extra issued shares are the cause of the disclosure from AMP
5% and having 466m would mean peb would have nearly 10 billion shares on issue😕

[clip]

5% and having 466m would mean peb would have nearly 10 billion shares on issue

Whoops.. total shares 466 > 724. Their holdings were 25m > 34m

-(a) total number held in class: 25,644,970
(b) total in class: 466,321,801
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.50%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,
(a) total number held in class: 34,330,651
(b) total in class: 724,143,563

[nevchev]

Whoops.. total shares 466 > 724. Their holdings were 25m > 34m

-(a) total number held in class: 25,644,970
(b) total in class: 466,321,801
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.50%
For current holding after ceasing to have substantial holding,
(a) total number held in class: 34,330,651
(b) total in class: 724,143,563
Your on to it
Suspect trading in the arvo,s.Who sells into 200,000 bid when only 35,000 on offer?

[Minerbarejet]

Another thing that should be considered is that others may have been accumulating up to a point just below 5%. This would drop the percentage ratios elsewhere too.
I would suggest that this pretty well says that there has been quite a considerable amount of accumulation elsewhere if a holding percentage drops by that amount despite accumulation of their (AMP) own.

[nevchev]

Another thing that should be considered is that others may have been accumulating up to a point just below 5%. This would drop the percentage ratios elsewhere too.
If the number of shares on offer remained constant it wouldnt matter who held what %.It wouldnt have changed AMPs %

[Minerbarejet]

But that is precisely the point, the number of shares have not remained constant and with every new issue via placements or CR the percentages will change.
Dilution.

[Balance]

Sp firming a little towards the AGM on Wednesday.

So are there announcements in the offing to be made then?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/355785/325832.pdf

Notice is hereby given that the 2020 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting of Pacific Edge Limited will be held online at http://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/peb2020 on Wednesday 5 August 2020, commencing at 3.00pm.

[Longhaul]

Not sure if this is a new development, but it appears CXBladder has been approved for use in NY State.

https://www.wadsworth.org/pacific-edge-diagnostics-usa-ltd

Is this due to LCD inclusion? Is it new news?

I wouldn't claim to know, so if anyone knows more about the US health system I would like to hear your thoughts.

[Minerbarejet]

Sp firming a little towards the AGM on Wednesday.

So are there announcements in the offing to be made then?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/355785/325832.pdf

Notice is hereby given that the 2020 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting of Pacific Edge Limited will be held online at http://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/peb2020 on Wednesday 5 August 2020, commencing at 3.00pm.

Sorry, Balance, I think you have to be a shareholder to attend even the virtual meeting.

Expecting a Shareholder update of some sort either in the Reports or out to market prior.

[tango]

Sorry, Balance, I think you have to be a shareholder to attend even the virtual meeting.

Expecting a Shareholder update of some sort either in the Reports or out to market prior.

I am trying to remember whether you have to put in your CSN number to gain entry. I think so long as you don’t want to vote that anyone can attend the virtual meeting. From memory you only need your CSN number to vote on the resolutions

[nevchev]

Not sure if this is a new development, but it appears CXBladder has been approved for use in NY State.

https://www.wadsworth.org/pacific-edge-diagnostics-usa-ltd

Is this due to LCD inclusion? Is it new news?
I wouldn't claim to know, so if anyone knows more about the US health system I would like to hear your thoughts.
Cant find any dates for this longhaul but very interesting.3 different project ids all approved

[pierre]

So, the PEB ASM is online tomorrow at 3pm.

I wonder what trick DD has up his sleeve for announcement later today or tomorrow prior to the meeting?

I guess it's not quite so necessary for Dave to have his usual pre-meeting smoke and mirrors release this year now there's enough cash in the tin and he wont be trying to pump the market for a CR.

While (most) shareholders will be pretty happy the SP is out of the doldrums, releasing some more of the good news we are all anticipating will not go amiss.

Bonne chance to all holders.

[Balance]

So, the PEB ASM is online tomorrow at 3pm.

I wonder what trick DD has up his sleeve for announcement later today or tomorrow prior to the meeting?

I guess it's not quite so necessary for Dave to have his usual pre-meeting smoke and mirrors release this year now there's enough cash in the tin and he wont be trying to pump the market for a CR.

While (most) shareholders will be pretty happy the SP is out of the doldrums, releasing some more of the good news we are all anticipating will not go amiss.

Bonne chance to all holders.

I think you have read the situation right - there is no need for PEB to aggressively talk their prospects up as the company now has plenty of cash to see them through the next 12 months very comfortably.

Much better now to play the underpromise and overdeliver game - that’s what I expect anyway.

Could mean a weak sp tomorrow however!

[patrick]

I am trying to remember whether you have to put in your CSN number to gain entry. I think so long as you don’t want to vote that anyone can attend the virtual meeting. From memory you only need your CSN number to vote on the resolutions

No, not necessary for entry to the Blis Meeting

[Minerbarejet]

Without getting into the Trump/No Trump arguments on my part, this article seems to cover recent CMS online developments in which PEB is involved.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/31/covid-19-brought-telehealth-revolution-now-trump-wants-stay-column/5556733002/

[Hello123]

Quite a bit trying to be sold for 78c! They doubtful of good news?

[fiasco]

Quite a bit trying to be sold for 78c! They doubtful of good news?

Or institutions trying to flush out weak hands prior to this afternoon.

[Merc]

Without getting into the Trump/No Trump arguments on my part, this article seems to cover recent CMS online developments in which PEB is involved.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/31/covid-19-brought-telehealth-revolution-now-trump-wants-stay-column/5556733002/

My American son-in-law works for a Significant Company in the States. Last year The Company was trialing virtual healthcare using staff and their families as Guinea pigs.

A combination of a nurse visiting, virtual consult with a doctor and medicine delivered within an hour by courier.

My daughter, with two young children, loves it! MUCH easier than bundling an unwell fractious child into a car seat and visiting the doctor.

I haven't heard whether it has gone public yet so won't name the company.

[nevchev]

No announcements!Hopefully we get some sort of guidance or at least an idea of how testing is tracking since the kaiser and medicare news.GLTA

[tango]

No announcements!Hopefully we get some sort of guidance or at least an idea of how testing is tracking since the kaiser and medicare news.GLTA

Eagerly awaiting the meeting!

[nevchev]

Eagerly awaiting the meeting!
No leaky boat this time round

[Arthur]

Is it just me or has the meeting not started yet?

[Drew95]

Not working for me either.

[t.rexjr]

Is it just me or has the meeting not started yet?

Just you........

And drew......

https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/peb2020

[frogboy]

I found that I had to refresh the browser once it had started, waiting for it to start did not work.

[stephens.pc]

[QUOTE=t.rexjr;834021]Just you........

And drew......

https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/peb2020[/QUOTEM

Mine started working when I refreshed the page

[Hello123]

Cant watch it, News not inspiring share price has dropped?

[nevchev]

Cant watch it, News not inspiring share price has dropped?
News has been ok!Nothing earth shattering but steady as she goes.Singapore progress very good and should come to fruition in the near term

[Leftfield]

Cant watch it, News not inspiring share price has dropped?

Read it the old fashioned way here. (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/357488/327784.pdf)

Still making losses.

[pierre]

Still making losses.

As anyone should have expected. The recent announcements did not indicate that instant profitability would result.

There is still a great deal of investment required to leverage and maximise the opportunities. While profitability is probably much closer and much more certain - it is still a prospect not a reality.

[nevchev]

As anyone should have expected. The recent announcements did not indicate that instant profitability would result.

There is still a great deal of investment required to leverage and maximise the opportunities. While profitability is probably much closer and much more certain - it is still a prospect not a reality.
Add to that there is no competition coming thru and even if there was it would be years away.pacific have first mover advantage and plenty of time on their side

[Drew95]

Price per test between $NZD1100 and $NZD3400. Marginal cost of test. $NZD100. Nice margin! Current tests 16,000 per annum. Existing lab capacity = 295,000 tests. KP and LCD will open a lot of doors. Future looks good to me.

[tango]

If you wanted to make a quick buck (not looking at Sharesies investors) then the picture painted is not good.

On the other hand, the long term forecast looks good and the management is highly focused and not trying to take on more than they can handle. A singular focus on the USA makes sense. The medical profession is slow to change. That means a long lead time for sales but once you hook a customer they are unlikely to switch.

[Pegasus2000]

They are very focusing on most promising profitable regions such as US and Southeast Asia instead of EU, Canada, etc.

[jimdog31]

Please go easy on me as its my first post - Any ideas on the likely effect of inclusion on the NZX in Dec (if that happens?)

[Leftfield]

....The recent announcements did not indicate that instant profitability would result. ... While profitability is probably much closer and much more certain - it is still a prospect not a reality.

Relax Pierre, I was just trying to explain why the SP has dipped after today's meeting.

Still a long term hold in my portfolio.

[Merc]

Relax Pierre, I was just trying to explain why the SP has dipped after today's meeting.

Still a long term hold in my portfolio.

And a longterm hold in mine too.

Interesting to hear the two sides to covid-19.

Whilst it has, unsurprisingly, increased the uptake of home based testing it's also made it harder for sales staff to go out and sell (hadn't thought of that one).

But with the 2 recent big name customers signing on that minor negative shouldn't be too much of an issue.

[Pegasus2000]

Also interesting, Bryan said that it is not particular long for proving PEB in US when a question said it is quite long. How long will normally similar product get breakthrough, 10-15 years?

[nevchev]

Also interesting, Bryan said that it is not particular long for proving PEB in US when a question said it is quite long. How long will normally similar product get breakthrough, 10-15 years?
I found that interesting also and they had two products approved together which he said was highly unusual.Happy to have my hard earned here at least for the medium term
South east asia is a huge market with Singapore been the medical hub and they mentioned they are close to commercialization opportunities there in the near term
655 million
Southeast Asia covers about 4.5 million km2 (1.7 million mi2), which is 10.5% of Asia or 3% of earth's total land area. Its total population is more than 655 million, about 8.5% of the world's population.

[Merc]

I am interested in others impression of the AGM.

Mine was that they have a large number of possible, highly likely, contracts in the pipeline but for reasons of commercial sensitivity / negotiations couldn't reveal much.

Anyone got a time machine so I can roll back a month or two and double my shareholding at 10 cents per share?

[nevchev]

I am interested in others impression of the AGM.

Mine was that they have a large number of possible, highly likely, contracts in the pipeline but for reasons of commercial sensitivity / negotiations couldn't reveal much.

Anyone got a time machine so I can roll back a month or two and double my shareholding at 10 cents per share?

Was happy to hear Johns Hopkins get a special mention.

[Leftfield]

Please go easy on me as its my first post - Any ideas on the likely effect of inclusion on the NZX in Dec (if that happens?)

Welcome to the forum.

IMHO the likely inclusion in any index has little overall effect on the SP at that date as institutions often anticipate any changes in the index and start acquiring the target shares well before and after the date. In addition some institutions are adept at using trading bot's to help manipulate the SP to benefit their major acquisitions.

In my experience the thing that can really change a SP is unexpected good news. Examples are the Coca-Cola strategic stake acquisition in PLX, or news from PEB re CMS coverage and Kaiser. It pays to make sure you use the 'email me any news' function on your watch-list of companies you are interested in, then buy your shares ASAP when you hear the good news.

In the PLX example the SP is currently up about 300% since the Coke news, while the more recent PEB example is currently up about 50%.

[pierre]

I am interested in others impression of the AGM.

Mine was that they have a large number of possible, highly likely, contracts in the pipeline but for reasons of commercial sensitivity / negotiations couldn't reveal much.

Anyone got a time machine so I can roll back a month or two and double my shareholding at 10 cents per share?

It's pretty clear there are heaps of opportunities with an addressable market of $1.2 billion per annum.

They are ramping up their sales force to spread the word and are gearing up to ensure they deliver gold-standard service to KP and others in the USA.
They will be negotiating to receive payment for 22000+ unpaid tests. Being paid for even 50% of them will be a big plus.
Covid has created opportunities for more home sampling but difficulties in getting their message to the market. Overall, the odds are well in favour of huge success for PEB. I believe further positive announcements are inevitable but we just have to patient till ink is on the paper.

I doubled my holding over the past couple of months and have no intention of selling any.

I think today's minor SP drop is the result of disappointed opportunists selling because there was no price sensitive announcement at the meeting.

[Merc]

Was happy to hear Johns Hopkins get a special mention.


It's pretty clear there are heaps of opportunities with an addressable market of $1.2 billion per annum.

They are ramping up their sales force to spread the word and are gearing up to ensure they deliver gold-standard service to KP and others in the USA.
They will be negotiating to receive payment for 22000+ unpaid tests. Being paid for even 50% of them will be a big plus.
Covid has created opportunities for more home sampling but difficulties in getting their message to the market. Overall, the odds are well in favour of huge success for PEB. I believe further positive announcements are inevitable but we just have to patient till ink is on the paper.

I doubled my holding over the past couple of months and have no intention of selling any.

I think today's minor SP drop is the result of disappointed opportunists selling because there was no price sensitive announcement at the meeting.

Absolutely agree on the minor SP drop.

As for the next couple of years? I suspect those selling now will regret they did long before the 2 years is up.

Very pleased I kept the faith for the last 7 years and added to them.

[tango]

Please go easy on me as its my first post - Any ideas on the likely effect of inclusion on the NZX in Dec (if that happens?)

I have a slightly different take to left field.Once PEB is included in the NZX 50 a lot of brokers who don’t currently analyse the stock will analyse the stock and that will lead to interest from their clients and potentially buy recommendations for their clients. This will flow through in the weeks or months after inclusion as brokers add it to their list of companies to analyse and tell their clients about. However, by and large New Zealand brokers don’t understand these types of stocks and are unlikely to make strong buy recommendations

It won’t make a huge difference but it should increase the SP at the time of the announcement. Some fund managers will buy in advance but the ones managing NZX 50 stocks will usually have to wait until after the announcement is made. Left field is right that buying algorithms and bots help the fund managers keep the prices low, but only on stocks with high liquidity.

[tango]

One more thought… As the idea of Pacific edge being included in the NZX 50 has already been published this is built into the price to some extent already, so the bump in price will probably not be huge.

[Balance]

One more thought… As the idea of Pacific edge being included in the NZX 50 has already been published this is built into the price to some extent already, so the bump in price will probably not be huge.

Suspect that there are some punters in PEB who were expecting a spike in the sp leading to a September index inclusion.

Now that the indexing looks like December will be the earliest (and subjected to a number of variables - sp holding up and stocks of other companies staying down), the punters are taking their money & gains off the table.

[nevchev]

Suspect that there are some punters in PEB who were expecting a spike in the sp leading to a September index inclusion.

Now that the indexing looks like December will be the earliest (and subjected to a number of variables - sp holding up and stocks of other companies staying down), the punters are taking their money & gains off the table.
Let them go if they wish and i think some would have done well.Theres just to much upside from here and potential for positive news out of the blue.Some will be thinking to come back at a later date but its a risky play in my opinion

[Waltzing]

well i missed the big pump up and now they are dumping? i hope so as im late to the party...after giving up and thinking it was going to go the way of some other complete duds on this exchange at the bottom of the world... life boat..im mean picnic market..

[Mel]

Its likely that the home-based testing will embed itself as a longer-term practice, while the inability to have face-to-face sales conversations will (hopefully) be short term. I wasn't expecting any significant news yesterday as any news is dependent on progress through the sales cycle. I think the mid-long term prospects for PEB are excellent - a long term hold for me too.

[pierre]

Once the initial disappointment is over for those who were expecting an announcement yesterday, the overall trajectory of the SP will be northwards. How far and how fast will hinge on inclusion in the NZX50, updates on sales via KP and overall penetration into that $1.2 billion US market - as well as into Asia.

I like to think that over the next 3- 5 years we could see the SP head towards $5.00. However, I'm sure PEB is now on the watchlist for a number of US biotech companies and wont be surprised if at some point, as the SP starts heading upwards, a takeover offer appears. It will be very disappointing if an offer is attractive enough to the major holders to see PEB disappear in the same way as the NZX lost Diligent.

[Leftfield]

Suspect that there are some punters in PEB who were expecting a spike in the sp leading to a September index inclusion. Now that the indexing looks like December will be the earliest (and subjected to a number of variables - sp holding up and stocks of other companies staying down), the punters are taking their money & gains off the table.

From a TA perspective in the short term the SP may retrace to fill the upper two gaps.

IMO the lower momentum gap is unlikely to be filled.

11836

Traders will trade, holders will hold, and those with a longer term perspective are likely to be well rewarded.
JMHO. DYOR.

[Food4Thought]

From a TA perspective in the short term the SP may retrace to fill the upper two gaps.

IMO the lower momentum gap is unlikely to be filled.

11836

Traders will trade, holders will hold, and those with a longer term perspective are likely to be well rewarded.
JMHO. DYOR.

The PEB story is one with exceptional promise.

Fact this highly complicated testing process has worked out well and the R&D has paid off.

The brand is also promising with a highly capable research and management team.

It does look attractive and to the big businesses this will look interesting. Hard to replicate.

Strong strategic competitive advantages.
Difficult to enter style of market.

I am really fond of the product idea and the story behind it.

Currently small share numbers trading from recent trades. I do think the med-long term potential has many upsides to it.

Well done to the PEB team and those who have been in it long term.

Nicely done

Disc. Holding

[Sgt Pepper]

The PEB story is one with exceptional promise.

Fact this highly complicated testing process has worked out well and the R&D has paid off.

The brand is also promising with a highly capable research and management team.

It does look attractive and to the big businesses this will look interesting. Hard to replicate.

Strong strategic competitive advantages.
Difficult to enter style of market.

I am really fond of the product idea and the story behind it.

Currently small share numbers trading from recent trades. I do think the med-long term potential has many upsides to it.

Well done to the PEB team and those who have been in it long term.

Nicely done

Disc. Holding

I agree.
I logged into the shareholders AGM yesterday and was impressed. The days of "PEBs $100 million dream" articles have now been jettisoned for a sensible explanation of PEB product placement in the US market and the rationale behind it. The robust science and its competitive advantage all poised to deliver in the medium term. My only concern is that PEB could be another example of a NZ company at risk of takeover and delisting from NZX, especially as it would be a NZ domiciled company with most of its earnings in the USA

[uluvsg]

An update from cxbladder twitter

Looks promising. Happy holding �� I think institutions are trying hard to wash off weak hands.


https://ibb.co/qC0bc4q

Cxbladder
@Cxbladder
·
45m
Great to be part of the solution supporting this
@MedPageToday
Op-Ed from Kaiser Permanente's
@NancyGinMD
. Nancy discusses how new techs, incl. in-home sampling for bladder cancer, have led to much-needed improvements in care delivery during the pandemic: https://hubs.ly/H0tlx6N0

[Balance]

I agree.
I logged into the shareholders AGM yesterday and was impressed. The days of "PEBs $100 million dream" articles have now been jettisoned for a sensible explanation of PEB product placement in the US market and the rationale behind it. The robust science and its competitive advantage all poised to deliver in the medium term. My only concern is that PEB could be another example of a NZ company at risk of takeover and delisting from NZX, especially as it would be a NZ domiciled company with most of its earnings in the USA

Must say it is good & very pleasing that PEB is now using a 'under-promise & over-delivery' strategy in its interaction with the market.

There will be plenty of positive news to come out over the next 12 months so it is a matter, short term, of letting those who were expecting the sp to spike yesterday from the AGM get out of the game.

[Balance]

Must say it is good & very pleasing that PEB is now using a 'under-promise & over-delivery' strategy in its interaction with the market.

There will be plenty of positive news to come out over the next 12 months so it is a matter, short term, of letting those who were expecting the sp to spike yesterday from the AGM get out of the game.

Thinking about PEB's inclusion into NZX50 - its market cap (if it stays around current level) is well ahead of several stocks in the index so the company could well be playing it conservatively by saying inclusion in December?

Could very well be in September, especially with Metlife being a certainty now to exit the NZX and NZX50.

[Davexl]

Thinking about PEB's inclusion into NZX50 - its market cap (if it stays around current level) is well ahead of several stocks in the index so the company could well be playing it conservatively by saying inclusion in December?

Could very well be in September, especially with Metlife being a certainty now to exit the NZX and NZX50.

Was thinking the same - could be a very pleasant surprise after all...

[Balance]

Was thinking the same - could be a very pleasant surprise after all...

Well, PEB is #44 of NZX top 50 companies by market cap - currently with a market cap of $521m ahead of:

AFT $482m

SKL $475m *

NZX $416m *

SKO $307m

MCK $291m

VGL $286m *

THL $273m *

* - Stocks currently in NZX50 index

I think we will see PEB included in the September 2020 quarterly rebalance!

Interesting enough, there has only been one change so far to the NZX50 index this year - NPH replacing GTK on 22 June 2020.

With some massive changes to the share prices of the top 60 companies on the NZX, September rebalance could very well see some big changes!

[baaantom]

The shares also need to meet a certain level of liquidity over a certain time period - 3 months I think? So more likely to be included in the December re-shuffle.

[Balance]

The shares also need to meet a certain level of liquidity over a certain time period - 3 months I think? So more likely to be included in the December re-shuffle.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-nzx-index.pdf?force_download=true

[nevchev]

Someone selling down.they must really want out.Looks like a few stop losses got triggered

[t.rexjr]

Attempted tree shake

[nevchev]

Attempted tree shake
Seems to have worked to a degree

[jonu]

I got all rash and picked up another decent chunk @68. A Johns Hopkins or some such announcement on Monday morning would be luvvly jubbly.

[Hello123]

I got all rash and picked up another decent chunk @68. A Johns Hopkins or some such announcement on Monday morning would be luvvly jubbly.

Yes i also topped up at 68c!, Didnt think it would be this shaken!

[Balance]

Yes i also topped up at 68c!, Didnt think it would be this shaken!

Consider yourself lucky!

My 65c was close but not close enough!

[Hello123]

Consider yourself lucky!

My 65c was close but not close enough!

A price only afforded to ANZ since, and i for one hope it stays that way hah!

[nevchev]

Looks like they picked up a million or so shares.Quite frustrating not having spare funds to join in the fun

[Leftfield]

Yes i also topped up at 68c!, Didnt think it would be this shaken!


Looks like they picked up a million or so shares

All going to the cunning plan outlined in post #18106..... well done those filling up.

( The SP may fluctuate around today's levels until further good news pushes it to new highs.)

As always DYOR.

[Minerbarejet]

Be interesting to see how long this takes to turn into a full scale adoption like Kaiser.

https://www.cxbladder.com/nz/news/2018/cxbladder-commercial-evaluation-by-johns-hopkins-medicine/

[Longhaul]

https://www.urologytimes.com/view/real-world-data-demonstrate-efficacy-of-genomic-urine-test-for-bladder-cancer-recurrence

Based on NZ data but from BMC urology in Feb 2020.

[nevchev]

https://www.urotoday.com/recent-abstracts/urologic-oncology/bladder-cancer/112734-evaluation-of-cxbladder-and-adjudication-of-atypical-cytology-and-equivocal-cystoscopy.html

[nevchev]

https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/eau-2020/bladder-cancer/123171-eau-2020-urinary-markers-in-low-grade-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-ready-to-stop-cystoscopies.html

[baaantom]

Hi folks, trying to estimate potential revenue from Kaiser. I have done a 'what-if' analysis attached. I have tried to take a conservative approach however the numbers are still looking massive :scared: Let me know your thoughts. Cheers.11843

[Waltzing]

id that really a 1 B? Looks amazing...

[Waltzing]

...2500 a test? boy that is one expensive test?

[baaantom]

Yeah, $1b. They mentioned at the AGM that the test price ranges between $NZD1,100 and $NZD3,400, with most sales taking place at the higher end.

[Minerbarejet]

Wont matter what the test price is at unless someone starts stumping up some cash for tests used.

[zs_cecil]

Wont matter what the test price is at unless someone starts stumping up some cash for tests used.

The cost of each test is 100NZD so the revenue of PEB should be at least at 4% above from your model :-)

[Minerbarejet]

It almost looks as if that is the level they have been paid at.
Interesting that the agreed and coded price of 710.00US has suddenly transmogrified into 3400.00 NZD
Exchange rate must have really sagged.

[nevchev]

Yeah, $1b. They mentioned at the AGM that the test price ranges between $NZD1,100 and $NZD3,400, with most sales taking place at the higher end.
If they ever operate at capacity of 260000 tests at $1100 its still 288m.Will take time but ducks slowly lining up

[drcjp]

I wouldn't get too excited about NZD3400 per test. Those numbers will be few and most of it will go to the test procurer, ie. ticket clipping. PEB is LCD covered for USD760 (~NZD1100) and that's pretty much what they'll get.
Also impt to consider that higher volumes lead to reduced prices in tests. If they capture much of the market, still a big if, the price will eventually drop a bit as the LCD will review weight based coverage value.

[Minerbarejet]

An interested bystander has told me that as far as he can recall the $3400 is the Federal Supply schedule price, so this is a contract price for the test for the VA & Tricare.

The $US760 is the contract price for CMS.

Other insurers and payers will negotiate their own supply contracts and this will probably be $US760 or greater.

[Carpenterjoe]

I suppose it is good to aim high.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/businessdesk.co.nz/amp/article/pacific-edge-seeks-us40m-backpay-from-us-administrator

[Merc]

Before getting too excited imagining $1 billion in $1 coins within the next year...

1. The MATERIALS for the test may cost $100 per test but businesses have other costs too. Staff, wages, rent, marketing, travel, R&D... For PEB these costs add up to 20 odd million per year.

2. Like Pharmac here in NZ who get substantial discounts on drugs through bulk buying, the big users of the tests will get significant discounts. So use the conservative figure of $760 per test in calculations... and hope for a happy surprise

3. Covid. Remember back in Lockdown how the daily updates changed? A few weeks in not only were we getting covid updates but also reminders to not put off other health needs. There was real concern that the numbers of people getting tested for other things had dropped off significantly. We're through that now, but the rest of the world?

4. And Covid. Tends to have a particularly bad effect on the elderly, particularly with other underlying health needs.

5. The US dollar may be dropping in value at present

Overall I am extremely happy with my holding, and am NOT selling, but I don't expect dividends in the near future. Maybe 2 years away yet and then steadily increasing over the years?

[Merc]

And as for dividends? Growth companies tend to pour the bulk of their profits back into the business to continue to grow it. This tends to increase the value of the company and the share price.

Once this is well underway THEN they will look at paying out dividends. Small at first, increasing over the years.

Personally I'm having a private bet with myself as to WHEN the share price will hit $1 and how long it will then take to hit $10 and over.

[davflaws]

Personally I'm having a private bet with myself as to WHEN the share price will hit $1 and how long it will then take to hit $10 and over.

So how about going public with your "when" estimate - even if you keep the amount of the wager private?

[Hello123]

Big amount bought..

$0.690 1,223,000 $843,870.00 10:59 am

[Merc]

PEB have, after years of user testing, signed up 2 very significant customers. Probably some months earlier than the customers intended thanks to Covid-19.

My pick is that others, who have also been user testing, will follow before too much longer, thanks again to The Bug.

Each additional large customer will push the share price up.

The next thing that will happen is the half yearly report coming out end of November and, unless they've received cash for the past user tests from the US, shareholders will be disappointed at the lack of increase in income.

Why? Because the 6 monthly report isn't from June through November, but April through September.

So 3 months increase in income from 1st July, not 6.

So, my pick, $1 by Christmas.

The future? Harder to predict but $10 in 5 years?

[baaantom]

Big amount bought..

$0.690 1,223,000 $843,870.00 10:59 am

Were do you see details of trades like this?

[Hello123]

Were do you see details of trades like this?

Market depth its available on a lot of platforms ASB securities, Sharsies ETC.

[baaantom]

Market depth its available on a lot of platforms ASB securities, Sharsies ETC.

Yes I can see market depth which doesn't allow you to go back and look at previous trades. It doesn't show actual trades that have taken place just detail of the buy / sell orders on the market. Am I missing something?

[tango]

Yes I can see market depth which doesn't allow you to go back and look at previous trades. It doesn't show actual trades that have taken place just detail of the buy / sell orders on the market. Am I missing something?

In the right hand column.
Column 1 BIDS
Column 2 ASKS
Column 3 RECENT TRADES

You need the Depth dropdown tab rather than Quote or Detailed

[Snow Leopard]

Although it does not detail each individual trade, per se, this may be useful:

https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/peb.nzx/

[Pocket_Eights]

Hi new to the forum, does anyone know (or know where I can find it), how many test PEB has conducted in the US?

[clip]

In the right hand column.
Column 1 BIDS
Column 2 ASKS
Column 3 RECENT TRADES

You need the Depth dropdown tab rather than Quote or Detailed

Must be direct broking? I can't see this from ASB either

[nevchev]

Must be direct broking? I can't see this from ASB either
It shows on snow leopard's link

[baaantom]

Although it does not detail each individual trade, per se, this may be useful:

https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/peb.nzx/

Great, thanks. Has anyone been able to reconcile the $US40m reimbursement figure for unpaid tests PEB is chasing from CMS? My calculations work out at $16.7m USD ~$26.1m NZD (22,000 tests @ $760 USD)

[Merc]

Great, thanks. Has anyone been able to reconcile the $US40m reimbursement figure for unpaid tests PEB is chasing from CMS? My calculations work out at $16.7m USD ~$26.1m NZD (22,000 tests @ $760 USD)

Perhaps charged out at full price per test before a signed contract gave a significant discount per test?

[Merc]

Great, thanks. Has anyone been able to reconcile the $US40m reimbursement figure for unpaid tests PEB is chasing from CMS? My calculations work out at $16.7m USD ~$26.1m NZD (22,000 tests @ $760 USD)

And always the distinct possibility that CMS will say No. They were running the tests in parallel to their usual tests in trials so would be effectively paying for testing twice.

Negotiations will be taking place on this one.

Don't count the dollar coins until/if they appear.

[Brain]

I do not understand why PEB would be reimbursed for previous tests and PEB are saying that it could be anywhere between 0$ and many millions. Can anybody explain to me what leverage PEB have to get the payment. CMS are not going to pay because they want to be nice guys.

[t.rexjr]

Future price would be one thing to leverage off. At the end of the day they can always continue to pay for the more costly test option too... But the minnow is never in a strong position...

[Brain]

Future price would be one thing to leverage off. At the end of the day they can always continue to pay for the more costly test option too... But the minnow is never in a strong position...

Good point - essentially discounting future tests To get some money up front.

[Merc]

Great, thanks. Has anyone been able to reconcile the $US40m reimbursement figure for unpaid tests PEB is chasing from CMS? My calculations work out at $16.7m USD ~$26.1m NZD (22,000 tests @ $760 USD)
I very much doubt that ALL Doctors in the User Trials were running parallel tests up to 30th June before switching over. Some would have switched months ago so it would be fair to get some reimbursement.

Whether life is fair is, of course, another story.

The negotiators will be busy negotiating with this and other tools in their toolbox so we just have to wait and see. It seems they have started with Best Case and hope to settle... somewhere...

There were up to 309 people at the Virtual AGM (if that fluctuating number at the top of the screen next to the word "LIVE" was people)

Of the others who were "there" any other thoughts?

[forest]

Future price would be one thing to leverage off. At the end of the day they can always continue to pay for the more costly test option too... But the minnow is never in a strong position...

That is the way I see it too, also I observe David Darling the CEO has his specialisation in science not business deals.

[Dentie]

And always the distinct possibility that CMS will say No. They were running the tests in parallel to their usual tests in trials so would be effectively paying for testing twice.

Negotiations will be taking place on this one.

Don't count the dollar coins until/if they appear.

Given the rate of knots that the US counterfeits its currency (& the current debasement of it!!) - as well as the inordinate amount of time that has passed since test number 1 ... PEB has every reason to expect the full price of all the back tests.

In fact, IMO, given the above (& the immense benefit/s CXBladder offers) - if the US negotiated for a deep discount on those back tests ... it would be tantamount to theft!

[Merc]

That is the way I see it too, also I observe David Darling the CEO has his specialisation in science not business deals.
I got the impression from the AGM that one of the Board members, an American with a significant business background, is leading the negotiations on this.

[forest]

I got the impression from the AGM that one of the Board members, an American with a significant business background, is leading the negotiations on this.

Thanks for that bit of info, that is a positive.

[pierre]

I recall some comment being made about there being precedents for reimbursement, so it's not just pie in the sky speculation.

However, they did say that these matters are dealt with on a case by case basis so there is no certainty at all about whether they will be paid, when or how much. $0 - $40 million is a fairly wide range but I'm sure they will be anticipating something between $10m-20m.

That's history though and none of the revenue has been accrued.

The most interesting question is when will the KP revenue start to flow and at what level. The positive response to a shareholder's question about whether will they start accrual accounting soon means we could start to see some real income numbers reported in the next half year report.

[Merc]

Thanks for that bit of info, that is a positive.
Who the Board members are and their relevant experience is found at:
https://www.pacificedgedx.com/company/board/

[tango]

I got the impression from the AGM that one of the Board members, an American with a significant business background, is leading the negotiations on this.

I got that impression too.

[uluvsg]

Isn’t it one of the big news we all have been waiting for? Wonder why they didn’t announce it on NZX....

Breaking: Cxbladder is now covered by Medicare. Learn more: bit.ly/3itxrrg #bladdercancer

- From CXBLADDER OFFICIAL TWITTER
https://twitter.com/cxbladder/status/1292939673346535424?s=21

[barney]

I think one of the board members or David D mentioned that they were hiring some specialist negotiators to deal with the cms back payments.

[Balance]

I think one of the board members or David D mentioned that they were hiring some specialist negotiators to deal with the cms back payments.

Wise decision.

The US is mostly all about lobbying and connections.

[Merc]

I think one of the board members or David D mentioned that they were hiring some specialist negotiators to deal with the cms back payments.
I missed that one, but am not surprised.

For those who weren't "at" the AGM the Chairman Chris ran the meeting. First he introduced all the Board members followed by an update with extra input from Dave D and David L.

When it came to questions Chris and the two Davids answered the questions depending on their field of expertise.

[baaantom]

I missed that one, but am not surprised.

For those who weren't "at" the AGM the Chairman Chris ran the meeting. First he introduced all the Board members followed by an update with extra input from Dave D and David L.

When it came to questions Chris and the two Davids answered the questions depending on their field of expertise.

And AGM recording is available here too https://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-events/news/2020/video-footage-of-the-2020-asm-is-now-available/

[Leftfield]

Wise decision. The US is mostly all about lobbying and connections.

... and don't forget the backhanders

[Merc]

Now I have a question.

For many years we were far too busy being flat broke and paying off mortgages to pay attention to this Sharemarket thing.

In the last decade I've invested a small amount (relatively speaking) in the sharemarket, on and off, to try to figure it out. And over the last decade have learnt a lot.

But something still eludes me. Takeovers.

Over the years of logging in and out of here I've come across mild warnings of "takeovers"

Now my understanding is that Takeovers can be friendly or hostile and whoever does it needs a LOT of shares to attempt it.

Friendly doesn't seem to be on the cards for this company.

Hostile? The biggest shareholder is NZ Central Securities at 37.49% followed by Forthsyth Barr Custodians at
4.34%

Anyone know anything about who the biggest shareholder is? Who they represent? And whether they are a threat?

[Balance]

Deleted deleted

[Balance]

Now I have a question.

Anyone know anything about who the biggest shareholder is? Who they represent? And whether they are a threat?

Good question Merc.

To start your analysis which imo will add hugely to your investment acumen, start with having a look through PEB’s announcements for the SPHs filed :

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements

[Merc]

Good question Merc.

To start your analysis which imo will add hugely to your investment acumen, start with having a look through PEB’s announcements for the SPHs filed :

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements

Thank you Balance.

Forgive me if I am wrong, but aren't you one of the ones who mentioned takeovers once or twice?

Now in that haystack, any clues as to where the needle is hidden?

[gravityegg]

back to L2 alert, will this effect the stock market tomorrow?

[Merc]

And as for "investment acumen?"

30 odd years ago we invested, not in shares, but in the parallel universe of property.

Believe me. Many lessons learnt along the way work for both.

Economic cycles? Property cycles? Supply and demand? ... Got it.

But my knowledge of property is far, far superior to my knowledge of shares (kind of busy staying broke and paying off large mortgages for too many years to invest much money in the sharemarket)

Thus my question about Takeovers and if there is a threat.

Is there a real one?

[James564]

How do we think PEB will handle the level 3 announcement? i see someones offering a small amount at 0.60c?

[nevchev]

Consider yourself lucky!

My 65c was close but not close enough!
Did you get them balance?

[Balance]

Did you get them balance?

Got them at 67c 😳

Decided why muck around for 2c when one is counting on them putting on many many more cents than 2c.

[Balance]

And as for "investment acumen?"

30 odd years ago we invested, not in shares, but in the parallel universe of property.

Believe me. Many lessons learnt along the way work for both.

Economic cycles? Property cycles? Supply and demand? ... Got it.

But my knowledge of property is far, far superior to my knowledge of shares (kind of busy staying broke and paying off large mortgages for too many years to invest much money in the sharemarket)

Thus my question about Takeovers and if there is a threat.

Is there a real one?

Property and shares should be the same game - long term, quality (location), ignore short term gyrations and both offer tax free capital gains in NZ.

They are different however because with property, investors and homeowners feel they are in control - they can see, touch and manage the properties directly. Plus, there's little market noise unlike shares which can gyrate around day to day! Difference in favor of shares - liquidity.

Takeover of PEB?

I cannot recall posting about PEB as a takeover target in recent times but certainly that was my belief 6 years ago when PEB started reporting the various 'deals' they had done in the US. Nothing happened as those 'deals' went nowhere!

The big pharmaceutical firms look for opportunities like PEB once their products are proven in the market place - a lot easier to acquire said companies & their products to bolt onto their strong and huge global distribution base, than spend big bucks attempting to come up with said products.

So yes, PEB is vulnerable now they have CMS & KP on board - and will increasingly become more attractive when they land more deals. More vulnerable to takeover too if the sp does not reflect the company's true potential.

[James564]

0.66 - 0.67c is pretty good! considering ANZ got them for 0.65, i don't think they'll drop below that? just picked up some more

[barney]

https://www.urologytimes.com/view/real-world-data-demonstrate-efficacy-of-genomic-urine-test-for-bladder-cancer-recurrence

[RGR367]

https://www.urologytimes.com/view/real-world-data-demonstrate-efficacy-of-genomic-urine-test-for-bladder-cancer-recurrence

Kindly try reading what others have posted as this was shared by Longhaul 3 days ago.

[Cyclical]

Property and shares should be the same game - long term, quality (location), ignore short term gyrations and both offer tax free capital gains in NZ.

They are different however because with property, investors and homeowners feel they are in control - they can see, touch and manage the properties directly. Plus, there's little market noise unlike shares which can gyrate around day to day! Difference in favor of shares - liquidity.

Difference in favour of property - easy leverage (at least when the market is heading in the right direction relative to interest rates, which is more often than not).

[artemis]

And as for "investment acumen?" 30 odd years ago we invested, not in shares, but in the parallel universe of property.
...

These days residential property is subject to a lot of rules, including tax, that other businesses are not subject to. Fortunately it is quite possible to (perfectly legally) avoid most of those rules.

[barney]

Kindly try reading what others have posted as this was shared by Longhaul 3 days ago.

Surely a contender for most valuable sharetrader post of the year.

[Balance]

Kindly try reading what others have posted as this was shared by Longhaul 3 days ago.

Fair enough but do keep in mind however that some posters simply do not follow the threads day by day, and if they feel they come across useful information (good or bad), they should share.

Always appreciate all posters who bother to post.

[James564]

Already have most of my portfolio in PEB , definitely looking to add more around this time, i'm speculating an increased lockdown in Auckland so maybe Friday afternoons announcement will be a good time to stock up?

[Minerbarejet]

For total enlightenment anyone contemplating wisdom through these threads should start at the beginning and get back to us later on.
Much later on.:)

[James564]

Well there we go 14 new cases in the community today, get ready to load up on Friday

[Justin]

Already have most of my portfolio in PEB , definitely looking to add more around this time, i'm speculating an increased lockdown in Auckland so maybe Friday afternoons announcement will be a good time to stock up?

very strong support at 0.66 and 0.65

[t.rexjr]

Well there we go 14 new cases in the community today, get ready to load up on Friday

Isn't the pending success of this company due to Covid?

[James564]

Is it? just thinking of panic selling or people taking profits causing a dip on Friday arvo

[Hello123]

Is it? just thinking of panic selling or people taking profits causing a dip on Friday arvo

I thought the process it uses was helpful within the Covid environment, i dont think the absolute success was due to Covid but it defiantly helps and causes quicker adaption?

[nevchev]

I thought the process it uses was helpful within the Covid environment, i dont think the absolute success was due to Covid but it defiantly helps and causes quicker adaption?

It has in NZ with the US apparently about to follow.Waiting patiently!

[Davexl]

I thought the process it uses was helpful within the Covid environment, i dont think the absolute success was due to Covid but it defiantly helps and causes quicker adaption?

Adaption? It helps that the patient can get their urine sample in their own home, and send it to the lab without meeting anyone during Covid lockdowns...

[Hello123]

Adaption? It helps that the patient can get their urine sample in their own home, and send it to the lab without meeting anyone during Covid lockdowns...

Exactly mate its non-invasive and no close contact with another person is needed to get the sample, Quicker adaption to the product due to our current environment yes.

Its how you read it i think rather then saying the industry adapting to the current environment through the use of PEB device it would make more since if i said Covid has caused quicker adoption of the product sorry.

[sb9]

very strong support at 0.66 and 0.65

Wonder what's next support level once this is broken...

[Balance]

Wonder what's next support level once this is broken...

60c.

But will that happen first or an announcement first?

[Leftfield]

Wonder what's next support level once this is broken...

I reckon 60c...... but DYOR etc.

I posted this a while ago.... and it seems relevant these days.

11853

[uluvsg]

60c.

But will that happen first or an announcement first?


What sort of announcement are we talking about?

Meanwhile, there was an update from CXBLADDER official twitter. Thought it was the one of the big news we all have been waiting for.



https://imgur.com/SIojNyvCxbladder


@Cxbladder


(https://twitter.com/Cxbladder)
·
Aug 11 (https://twitter.com/Cxbladder/status/1292939673346535424)









Breaking: Cxbladder is now covered by Medicare. Learn more: https://bit.ly/3itxrrg (https://t.co/HEVT5AZ9cJ?amp=1) #bladdercancer (https://twitter.com/hashtag/bladdercancer?src=hashtag_click)

Quote Tweet

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1923790173/UT_notag_twitter_normal.jpg



Urology Times


@UrologyTimes






· Aug 11

Using genomic urine test with surveillance for bladder cancer recurrence reduces average number of annual cystoscopies. https://urologytimes.com/view/real-world-data-demonstrate-efficacy-of-genomic-urine-test-for-bladder-cancer-recurrence… #urology #bladdercancer #urologist












(https://twitter.com/Cxbladder)

[sb9]

I reckon 60c...... but DYOR etc.

I posted this a while ago.... and it seems relevant these days.

11853


60c.

But will that happen first or an announcement first?

Thanks, two great minds have same opinion. Will wait patiently if that opportunity eventuates...

[JSwan]

ANZ doesn't always correctly "price" an asset, so wouldn't be surprised if a share price of less than 65c presents itself.

Also there would've been a bit of share dilution if ANZ did sell some of those shares for a quick short-term profit.

[Minerbarejet]

ANZ doesn't always correctly "price" an asset, so wouldn't be surprised if a share price of less than 65c presents itself.

Also there would've been a bit of share dilution if ANZ did sell some of those shares for a quick short-term profit.

The ANZ shares are all part of the market capitalisation for PEB and any dilution has already occurred.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/357008/327239.pdf

[Justin]

ANZ doesn't always correctly "price" an asset, so wouldn't be surprised if a share price of less than 65c presents itself.

Also there would've been a bit of share dilution if ANZ did sell some of those shares for a quick short-term profit.

hi can you kindly give some case study that anz’s incorrect of asset price, cheers.

[Justin]

https://youtu.be/Jl7-XaI44TQ

some good analysis from YouTube, make me think about the market value of PEB really worth around 500m nowadays? Any idea please share, thanks.

[Justin]

https://idlbiotech.com/products/ubc-rapid/

hi all is this potential competitor?

[850man]

https://idlbiotech.com/products/ubc-rapid/

hi all is this potential competitor?

Appears so, not sure how it compares on cost but the testing process looks very straightforward.

[Longhaul]

https://idlbiotech.com/products/ubc-rapid/

hi all is this potential competitor?

Extremely unlikely. I suggest watching a few minutes from the recent AGM.

https://youtu.be/tPz3i3Ig1HY?t=3027

https://youtu.be/tPz3i3Ig1HY?t=4920

And for good measure, David Darling's address - https://youtu.be/tPz3i3Ig1HY?t=1192

[Justin]

Extremely unlikely. I suggest watching a few minutes from the recent AGM.

https://youtu.be/tPz3i3Ig1HY?t=3027

https://youtu.be/tPz3i3Ig1HY?t=4920

And for good measure, David Darling's address - https://youtu.be/tPz3i3Ig1HY?t=1192

It’s helps, thanks.

[Hello123]

Wonder what's next support level once this is broken...

Still holding up at 0.65 strong so far.

[Justin]

Still hang on 0.66

[James564]

Don’t think it will drop below 0.65 looking Like a strong wall, does anyone have a clue when FDA approval could come ?

[Longhaul]

What has happened to this thread?

[Balance]

What has happened to this thread?

New investors and shareholders asking pertinent questions?

Too hard to go through 900 odd pages even though most of the questions have been answered before.

[Carpenterjoe]

Don’t think it will drop below 0.65 looking Like a strong wall, does anyone have a clue when FDA approval could come ?

Never, they dont need it.

[Minerbarejet]

New investors and shareholders asking pertinent questions?

Too hard to go through 900 odd pages even though most of the questions have been answered before.

Should be required reading for the nuances and intricacies of share trading and a great material source for any kind of

psychoanalysis .

Even what stands now as the first post will have any newbies scratching their heads.

Not over yet either and wont be until either PEB or ST fall flat on their ears.

I don't find either very likely, just to be clear

[Dotbond]

What company is ST ?

[davflaws]

What company is ST ?

Good company - you're in it! (Share Trader)

[Dotbond]

Doh !! :blush:

[Minerbarejet]

Doh !! :blush:
Sorry
My fault for using acronyms
:t_down:

[tomm]

I am in :)

[nevchev]

Not looking pretty.Price below the ANZ buy in for the first time since.Patients is key with this one and many dont seem to have it.GLTA

[tomm]

Not looking pretty.Price below the ANZ buy in for the first time since.Patients is key with this one and many dont seem to have it.GLTA
No worry, at this SP is a bargain for LTH.

[Getty]

Not looking pretty.Price below the ANZ buy in for the first time since.Patients is key with this one and many dont seem to have it.GLTA

Yes, those patients will need a bit of patience..

Dr JPG

Please recycle bikes.

[Mel]

Agree, longer term play for me. Keen to purchase some more if funds become available (sale of other shares)

[Biscuit]

.....Patients is key with this one.....

patients/patience, nice pun :)

[Hello123]

patients/patience, nice pun :)


Very nice.

[Justin]

Not looking pretty.Price below the ANZ buy in for the first time since.Patients is key with this one and many dont seem to have it.GLTA

any price indicate when we stop patients？thanks.

[Minerbarejet]

any price indicate when we stop patients？thanks.
The price on the day the company collapses and files for bankruptcy should give a good indication of patients being stopped.
Somehow I dont see that happening in the near or medium term after the recent good news that has bumped the SP closing prices from 7c to a maximum of 80 within 6 months.

[Justin]

Not looking pretty.Price below the ANZ buy in for the first time since.Patients is key with this one and many dont seem to have it.GLTA


The price on the day the company collapses and files for bankruptcy should give a good indication of patients being stopped.
Somehow I dont see that happening in the near or medium term after the recent good news that has bumped the SP closing prices from 7c to a maximum of 80 within 6 months.

agree，I believe they are doing good during COVID environment as well, because more physicians will chose Cxbladder and patient can test at home. Just like top up at lower price.

[Cyclical]

patients/patience, nice pun :)

Let's hope they have their patents in order...

[Getty]

could you be more Spacific?
this is keeping me on Edge..

[nevchev]

Big cell down at end of day auction. Smells fishy and just doesnt make scents

[Cyclical]

Big cell down at end of day auction. Smells fishy and just doesnt make scents

Yeah, it'll be the 5g cell towers causing the fish to give off that nasty scent.

[Cyclical]

Big cell down at end of day auction. Smells fishy and just doesnt make scents

What's your thinking? Could just be someone that's made a fortune and decided it's time to cash in? The volume weighted average was still 64.5 and it finished off it's low for the day (63) with plenty of support at 64 at close, so I don't think there is much to be too concerned about at this stage...

[jimdog31]

New investors and shareholders asking pertinent questions?

Too hard to go through 900 odd pages even though most of the questions have been answered before.

There goes my saturday👍 but well worth doing for new investors into PEB. I can guarantee you’ll worry less about price fluctations once you have read the history of PEB via this forum, long story short, buy PEB for the long run or not at all.

Thanks to all forum posters for commentating over the years! and to balance for providing balance, especially as the worm has turned of late

[Justin]

Hi all just curious what’s going on the agreement with FedMed in 2013?

https://www.cxbladder.com/nz/news/2013/first-commercial-sales-achieved-for-pacific-edges-cxbladder-in-the-usa/

[nevchev]

There goes my saturday👍 but well worth doing for new investors into PEB. I can guarantee you’ll worry less about price fluctations once you have read the history of PEB via this forum, long story short, buy PEB for the long run or not at all.

Thanks to all forum posters for commentating over the years! and to balance for providing balance, especially as the worm has turned of late
Or buy for the short term and take advantage of inevitable good news

[zs_cecil]

The company's value has been at its all time high in the past month. Definitely good enough for people to take profit. :-)

[nevchev]

The company's value has been at its all time high in the past month. Definitely good enough for people to take profit. :-)

I think its been alot higher than it has been in the last month.$1.50 from memory some time ago

[winner69]

I think its been alot higher than it has been in the last month.$1.50 from memory some time ago

Mkt cap when share price about 150 in 2014 was about $480m


Now $463m so about the same


Shows you what many capital raises does

[Arthur]

There has been a lot of capital issued since the $1.50 mark. The last cash issue was at 10 cents in December last year. Shares on issue were 318 million 5 years ago and are 724 million now. It was around that time that they started doing user programs in Singapore, hopefully that will become commercial this year. Last year Australia/Singapore combined only had a third of the tests of NZ, so potentially there will be useful gains there.

[Cyclical]

Mkt cap when share price about 150 in 2014 was about $480m


Now $463m so about the same


Shows you what many capital raises does

I'm new here, so haven't got a handle on the journey yet, but one would hope those capital raises where put to good use and the underlying value of the company is considerably higher than it was in 2014, even if it's not fully recognised in the share price... What's the general consensus there?

[nevchev]

I'm new here, so haven't got a handle on the journey yet, but one would hope those capital raises where put to good use and the underlying value of the company is considerably higher than it was in 2014, even if it's not fully recognised in the share price... What's the general consensus there?
You dont have to look back to far to see the potential here.It does worry me that we would now make an attractive takeover with the hard yards been made.Its been hugely expensive to get us to this point and im hoping its not given up easily (cheaply)

[zs_cecil]

There has been a lot of capital issued since the $1.50 mark. The last cash issue was at 10 cents in December last year. Shares on issue were 318 million 5 years ago and are 724 million now. It was around that time that they started doing user programs in Singapore, hopefully that will become commercial this year. Last year Australia/Singapore combined only had a third of the tests of NZ, so potentially there will be useful gains there.

Indeed, Tan Tock Seng was the first hospital from Singapore signing the agreement with PEB for the user program.
It was announced around the time when the user program for KP commenced in 2015.

I'll bet "Tan Tock Seng" would appear in the next announcement this year to bring PEB back to all-time high :-)

[Balance]

Indeed, Tan Tock Seng was the first hospital from Singapore signing the agreement with PEB for the user program.
It was announced around the time when the user program for KP commenced in 2015.

I'll bet "Tan Tock Seng" would appear in the next announcement this year to bring PEB back to all-time high :-)

Be something bigger than that.

[Brain]

Be something bigger than that.

I like your optimism Balance. I hope and suspect you are going to be right.

[Minerbarejet]

Indeed, Tan Tock Seng was the first hospital from Singapore signing the agreement with PEB for the user program.
It was announced around the time when the user program for KP commenced in 2015.

I'll bet "Tan Tock Seng" would appear in the next announcement this year to bring PEB back to all-time high :-)
I believe "near term", was the expression used at the recent AGM in regards to the SE Asia outlook