PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Beagle]

As mentioned previously, PEB is included in the NZX50 with effect from today. Large volumes and a price spike in the last 15 minutes of trading, (the match process) is quite normal for any stock in the afternoon before index inclusion the next morning. Index tracking funds are required and mandated to make the switch to PEB as part of that index inclusion process before its officially included this morning. A temporary 10-20% price spike for a stock entering the NZX50 is not unusual at all and that's what happened this time, (from the date inclusion was first announced to yesterday afternoon's close.

[Minerbarejet]

Some outfits have been collecting PEB shares all week at 74/75 with a final lunge at the end of the pre inclusion period.

Raises the question though, "who has been selling and do we get SSH notices out of it?"

No notices might indicate a general market from several sources.

A lone ranger dropping off 22 million in a day seems a bit odd with several announcements due in the coming months

CMS payments for overdue tests.

An uplift in revenue.

Kaiser Permanente starting cxBladder usage across the whole spectrum in November.

And SE Asia taking part was indicated to be sooner rather than later.

[Leftfield]

............Raises the question though, "who has been selling and do we get SSH notices out of it?"........

Likely to have been who ever bankrolled PEB's many cap raises?

[tomm]

Some outfits have been collecting PEB shares all week at 74/75 with a final lunge at the end of the pre inclusion period.

Raises the question though, "who has been selling and do we get SSH notices out of it?"

No notices might indicate a general market from several sources.

A lone ranger dropping off 22 million in a day seems a bit odd with several announcements due in the coming months

CMS payments for overdue tests.

An uplift in revenue.

Kaiser Permanente starting cxBladder usage across the whole spectrum in November.

And SE Asia taking part was indicated to be sooner rather than later.
..Hmm....I am thinking the same , They bought those just to anti stocks dumping and retreated right away just to hold the current SP, BUT WHY DUMPING???

[Leftfield]

All is revealed..... see here. (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/361832/333359.pdf)

AMP Capital - 37.3 mill shares.

[golden city]

Looks good another funds adds in

[tomm]

All is revealed..... see here. (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/361832/333359.pdf)

AMP Capital - 37.3 mill shares.
They already ceasing , expecting the SP will slightly retreat.

[Leftfield]

The already ceasing , expecting the SP will slightly retreat.

Look at the longer term Trend. ;)

[jridler]

Does anybody know anything about UroSEEK - a non-invasive, urine-based test developed by Johns Hopkins for the detection of bladder cancer (i.e. direct competition to Cxbladder)? I find it curious that Johns Hopkins is reportedly conducting commercial evaluations of Cxbladder when they seem to be developing/advancing their own test?

[Minerbarejet]

Been around for a couple of years and havent heard much about it lately.

May have been beaten to the punch by cxBladder and it doesn't seem to be a test commercially available.

Therefore it has a long approval process ahead of it with lots of research and peer reviewed papers on the matter.

Come to think of it I reckon we are just about due for the peer reviewed papers on the Kaiser Pacific evaluation and corresponding effort from Pacific Edge.

The imminent arrival of KP on the scene as a fully adopting customer may prompt the publications and may contain the reasons behind the KP uptake.

PS.
With the current interest in PEB it may be timely for any of the new arrivals on this thread to take a good look at the following link if they haven't already.

https://www.pacificedgedx.com/products/pipeline/

Any kind of decent influx of funds would probably see a lot of this come off the backburner.

[Alpha]

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:TqlQ_iRBzU8J:https://www.cxbladder.com/nz/blog/the-importance-of-bladder-cancer-monitoring-and-surveillance/+&cd=10&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=nz

Most recent article on CXbladder website. I think the update in November will be quite positive.

[850man]

Hmmm.. SP down 10% over the last week or so with 4% of that this morning. Anyone know what's going on?

[baaantom]

Hmmm.. SP down 10% over the last week or so with 4% of that this morning. Anyone know what's going on?

Yep, market running scared from Northern Hemisphere Covid outbreaks.

[calledone]

Yep, market running scared from Northern Hemisphere Covid outbreaks.

Might get more bargain in the coming weeks. Get ready to load up!

[850man]

Covid should help PEB - CXBladder is a do-at-home test so no need to take yourself into a Covid filled clinic with all the associated risk.

[Balance]

Yep, market running scared from Northern Hemisphere Covid outbreaks.

Post the NZX50 index inclusion, stock also really needs positive updates and soon - otherwise, it is going to drift back to pre-index levels.

Surely there should be an update on the collection of the US$40m worth of receivables from tests done, involved and now can be collected with the inclusion of the LCD?

[thegreatestben]

Low volume of trades, Weak constitutions!

[baaantom]

Surely there should be an update on the collection of the US$40m worth of receivables from tests done, involved and now can be collected with the inclusion of the LCD?

I'd hope they may provide an update on progress when the interims are announced next month. If they had a concrete outcome from discussions they would have to announce to the market as it would be material.

I was also wondering about news of further big healthcare institutions signing contracts - I think they will probably be waiting to see how CXBladder fits in with Kaisers operations before making any decisions.

[calledone]

Does anyone think a Biden win will be bad for PEB's progress in US?

[Minerbarejet]

Bladder Cancer patients will still need treatment, monitoring and diagnosis regardless of who is sitting in the White house.

[t.rexjr]

Does anyone think a Biden win will be bad for PEB's progress in US?

If anything I'm picking a Biden win will improve progress if related to getting control of Covid.

[psychic]

Post the NZX50 index inclusion, stock also really needs positive updates and soon - otherwise, it is going to drift back to pre-index levels.

Surely there should be an update on the collection of the US$40m worth of receivables from tests done, involved and now can be collected with the inclusion of the LCD?

I'd be very surprised if they're paid much of that at all. The LCD means the Cxbladder Monitor and Detect tests are covered - if medically necessary. And that, to me, is key. The use of Urinary biomarkers, including Cxbladder is considered investigational only by the American Urological Assn. Not medically necesary and not recommended. But they have a place.

CMS has not rewritten the gold standard. They won't be sending all their patients off for a CxBladder test until the AUA include in the clinical pathway.
And neither will the other Insurers.

I think there will be much disappointment when the actual numbers are revealed. They will be getting paid for a few more tests now, but not in the numbers thought here. And no show of recovering US$40m.

My opinion only.

[calledone]

I'd be very surprised if they're paid much of that at all. The LCD means the Cxbladder Monitor and Detect tests are covered - if medically necessary. And that, to me, is key. The use of Urinary biomarkers, including Cxbladder is considered investigational only by the American Urological Assn. Not medically necesary and not recommended. But they have a place.

CMS has not rewritten the gold standard. They won't be sending all their patients off for a CxBladder test until the AUA include in the clinical pathway.
And neither will the other Insurers.

I think there will be much disappointment when the actual numbers are revealed. They will be getting paid for a few more tests now, but not in the numbers thought here. And no show of recovering US$40m.

My opinion only.

Quote from recent newsletter "We have now had two full months of revenue from the CMS, with all of our eligible claims being paid to date. This is the key driver enabling our US business to post monthly record revenues in August and September."

Can the "few more tests" create record revenue!?

[Minerbarejet]

CMS has said that they will cover cxbladder tests presented to them by Medicare patients who have utilised the product with their urologist or physician.

These are all the folk over 65 and a number of others with disabilities.

40 million dollars worth have accumulated in that channel over say 5 years due to lack of authorisation.

Think we can assume 8 million bucks worth a year, minimum will be forthcoming from there for starters.

CMS does not send patients anywhere as far as I know.

They are there to provide coverage under the Medicare and Medicaid programmes.

[psychic]

Quote from recent newsletter "We have now had two full months of revenue from the CMS, with all of our eligible claims being paid to date. This is the key driver enabling our US business to post monthly record revenues in August and September."

Can the "few more tests" create record revenue!?

Record revenues are pretty easy for PE! What percentage of tests were "eligible" ?

[psychic]

CMS has said that they will cover cxbladder tests presented to them by Medicare patients who have utilised the product with their urologist or physician.

These are all the folk over 65 and a number of others with disabilities.

40 million dollars worth have accumulated in that channel over say 5 years due to lack of authorisation.

Think we can assume 8 million bucks worth a year, minimum will be forthcoming from there for starters.

CMS does not send patients anywhere as far as I know.

They are there to provide coverage under the Medicare and Medicaid programmes.

First the Urologist must consider the test medically necessary...

[Minerbarejet]

Quote from recent newsletter "We have now had two full months of revenue from the CMS, with all of our eligible claims being paid to date. This is the key driver enabling our US business to post monthly record revenues in August and September."

Can the "few more tests" create record revenue!?

July/ August / September are sort of holiday time in the US and historically have led to pretty diminished PEB revenue accruing around then.

Starting from a low base with that I think so a few more tests could make a big difference.

"all of our eligible claims to date" indicates that CMS is paying for Detect and Monitor tests for all medicare patients whose medical advisors have decided

to use the cxBladder test.

Kaiser will have Medicare patients under their wing so those will go through once PEB makes the claim.

[Minerbarejet]

First the Urologist must consider the test medically necessary...

What could be more necessary than keeping bladder cancer monitored patients out of the way of Covid as best they can.

With the full scale uptake by Kaiser imminent they will be quick to see that as medically necessary.

Kaiser has 1/27 of the US population on the books

80,000 added to the monitoring pop annually = 2900 as Kaisers share

3 tests a year = 8700 at 1000 a pop =8.7m

and dont forget the other 29000 who are Kaiser patients from the overall US populations 800,000 being monitored for bladder cancer already.

Thats just Monitor and back of the envelope figures

[psychic]

What could be more necessary than keeping bladder cancer monitored patients out of the way of Covid as best they can.

With the full scale uptake by Kaiser imminent they will be quick to see that as medically necessary.

Kaiser has 1/27 of the US population on the books

80,000 added to the monitoring pop annually = 2900 as Kaisers share

3 tests a year = 8700 at 1000 a pop =8.7m

and dont forget the other 29000 who are Kaiser patients from the overall US populations 800,000 being monitored for bladder cancer already.

Thats just Monitor and back of the envelope figures

We will see I guess. We don't have anything from Kaiser that suggests what their uptake will look like yet do we?
Show me the money...

[Minerbarejet]

We will see I guess. We don't have anything from Kaiser that suggests what their uptake will look like yet do we?
Show me the money...

No not yet but they have the numbers of patients and a 1 in 10 uptake will give them Balances 100 million and thousands of tests and only a couple of years late.:)

[psychic]

Just want to emphasise:

From the CMS Glossary of terms:
....
MEDICALLY NECESSARY
Services or supplies that: are proper and needed for the diagnosis or treatment of your medical condition, are provided for the diagnosis, direct care, and treatment of your medical condition, meet the standards of good medical practice in the local area, and aren't mainly for the convenience of you or your doctor.
...

The "standards of good medical practice" are those set by the AUA

The AUA do not recommend the use of Urinary biomarkers. It is a big step for either Kaiser or CMS to rely on something that is not endorsed by the Clinical guidelines.

1 in 10? Don't think so.. Not yet..

[t.rexjr]

Just want to emphasise:

From the CMS Glossary of terms:
....
MEDICALLY NECESSARY
Services or supplies that: are proper and needed for the diagnosis or treatment of your medical condition, are provided for the diagnosis, direct care, and treatment of your medical condition, meet the standards of good medical practice in the local area, and aren't mainly for the convenience of you or your doctor.
...

The "standards of good medical practice" are those set by the AUA

The AUA do not recommend the use of Urinary biomarkers. It is a big step for either Kaiser or CMS to rely on something that is not endorsed by the Clinical guidelines.

1 in 10? Don't think so.. Not yet..

Seems a fairly broad definition overall. One in which it's application could be bent to suit ones agenda...

[psychic]

No, the standards of good medical practice are not arbitrary in the US. Law suits follow...

[Justin]

I wonder how to justify this company worth 500m market cap now?

[Greekwatchdog]

Just wait to the 26th Nov and the first 6 months of financial year will all be revealed and touch wood some answers to all the above. Remember under promise over deliver...

[Minerbarejet]

Just wait to the 26th Nov and the first 6 months of financial year will all be revealed and touch wood some answers to all the above. Remember under promise over deliver...
Too early
Only been going with CMS for three months and Kaiser hasnt started yet
Try full year results May 2021 for a better indication.

[Greekwatchdog]

At least there may be some answers to all those questions that are going around.

[Minerbarejet]

Just want to emphasise:

From the CMS Glossary of terms:
....
MEDICALLY NECESSARY
Services or supplies that: are proper and needed for the diagnosis or treatment of your medical condition, are provided for the diagnosis, direct care, and treatment of your medical condition, meet the standards of good medical practice in the local area, and aren't mainly for the convenience of you or your doctor.
...

The "standards of good medical practice" are those set by the AUA

The AUA do not recommend the use of Urinary biomarkers. It is a big step for either Kaiser or CMS to rely on something that is not endorsed by the Clinical guidelines.

1 in 10? Don't think so.. Not yet..

AUA seem to be about 2 years behind as usual.
With the advent of Covid and a requirement for patient care outside of the normal facilities where possible, common sense would indicate that operating under the old guidelines, when a perfectly good alternative to accommodate that is available, might be grounds for litigation as well

[psychic]

Just what is it you know that the AUA do not Miner?

[psychic]

I wonder how to justify this company worth 500m market cap now?

With an extraordinary amount of blind faith

[Minerbarejet]

Just what is it you know that the AUA do not Miner?
Nothing to do with what I know and what they know.
Its the length of time taken to make decisions.
A good case in point is CMS and also Kaiser taking 5 years to get a handle on it.
It has been a major programme getting sufficient clinical evidence out there.
CMS and Kaiser seem to think it sufficient at this point, AUA havent quite got there yet.

[psychic]

Nothing to do with what I know and what they know.
Its the length of time taken to make decisions.
A good case in point is CMS and also Kaiser taking 5 years to get a handle on it.
It has been a major programme getting sufficient clinical evidence out there.
CMS and Kaiser seem to think it sufficient at this point, AUA havent quite got there yet.

The thing is, we don't know anything of the Kaiser deal do we? I know KP is keen to reduce the frequency and reliance on cystoscopies, cost savings and all that, but there is significant risk in adopting Cxbladder outside what is accepted as the gold standard of care. How often and when will they use Cxbladder? We won't know until PE evidence uptake with sales, its all fluff otherwise.

Likewise, the CMS LCD is not a nod to use the test. But it will cover the cost when medically necessary, which the AUA says it is not.

Blind faith?

[Minerbarejet]

https://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-events/news/2020/kaiser-permanente-approves-commercial-use-of-cxbladder/


Kaiser Permanente has approved the commercial use of Cxbladder by their urologists for patients being evaluated for bladder cancer.

Does this not mean that KP are happy to have their urologists utilize cxbladder when appropriate and they are prepared
to stump up the cash regardless of what AUA or any other mob of bureaucratic dingbats decide?

If it doesnt mean that then what does it mean?

[psychic]

https://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-events/news/2020/kaiser-permanente-approves-commercial-use-of-cxbladder/


Kaiser Permanente has approved the commercial use of Cxbladder by their urologists for patients being evaluated for bladder cancer.

Does this not mean that KP are happy to have their urologists utilize cxbladder when appropriate and they are prepared
to stump up the cash regardless of what AUA or any other mob of bureaucratic dingbats decide?

If it doesnt mean that then what does it mean?

What does it mean indeed! We will have to wait and see but at current m/cap the market certainly seems to agree with you that KP and Medicare are or will be using Cxbladder flat out.

I'm not convinced.

I think it means what it says. That KP (and CMS for that matter) have approved the test for payment when used.
I don't think as you do that KP or CMS have included it in their clinical pathway. I am pretty sure that if this were true PE would have been absolutely clear about this and shouted it from the rooftop!

In NZ, PE went as far as to say that the tests were being included in the clinical pathway by majority DHB's (although did not say when or how), this was back in 2018. You'd expect hockey stick growth from that quarter wouldn't you? It was up 7% in the 12 months to March 2020.

We will see but the bureaucratic dingbats as you refer to those sitting on the AUA may be better informed. Some things are not as they seem and PE has a long history of puffery imo.

[gravityegg]

Just want point out the simple question: if u had cancer, will u consider the easy but not accurate (even with 95% accuracy)method, or the harder but 99.99%accurate way. If cxbladder can’t increase its accuracy, then....

[Minerbarejet]

What does it mean indeed! We will have to wait and see but at current m/cap the market certainly seems to agree with you that KP and Medicare are or will be using Cxbladder flat out.

I'm not convinced.

I think it means what it says. That KP (and CMS for that matter) have approved the test for payment when used.
I don't think as you do that KP or CMS have included it in their clinical pathway. I am pretty sure that if this were true PE would have been absolutely clear about this and shouted it from the rooftop!

In NZ, PE went as far as to say that the tests were being included in the clinical pathway by majority DHB's (although did not say when or how), this was back in 2018. You'd expect hockey stick growth from that quarter wouldn't you? It was up 7% in the 12 months to March 2020.

We will see but the bureaucratic dingbats as you refer to those sitting on the AUA may be better informed. Some things are not as they seem and PE has a long history of puffery imo.

Lets get one thing straight and work from there.
CMS do not have a clinical pathway.
CMS are insurance providers and are OK with paying for any Medicare/Medicaid patient whose urologist decides that cxBladder is ok to go with.
PEB may submit a claim to CMS based on the status of the patient.

KP have a clinical pathway as they have the hospitals/ urologists and physicians and also provide Medicare policies for those with disabilities and also those over 65 years of age.

OK, so you have a Kaiser patient who is over 65 and will be automatically on their Medicare list, has had an operation and requires monitoring for recurrence.

Who Pays??

Medicare I reckon.

[psychic]

Lets get one thing straight and work from there.
CMS do not have a clinical pathway.
CMS are insurance providers and are OK with paying for any Medicare/Medicaid patient whose urologist decides that cxBladder is ok to go with.
PEB may submit a claim to CMS based on the status of the patient.

KP have a clinical pathway as they have the hospitals/ urologists and physicians and also provide Medicare policies for those with disabilities and also those over 65 years of age.

OK, so you have a Kaiser patient who is over 65 and will be automatically on their Medicare list, has had an operation and requires monitoring for recurrence.

Who Pays??

Medicare I reckon.

Agree. Sorry, I wrote poorly, CMS does not write the Clinical pathway. As I said in an earlier post, this is decided upon by the AUA.
CMS follow the advice of the Urologist and so imo we can forget about significant sales from this quarter until the AUA strongly recommend the use of CxBladder.

And yes, KP are free to build the use of the test into its clinical pathway, any lawsuit stops with them. I would have thought that Urologists in the US were bound to follow the guidelines of best medical pratice regardless of where they worked but you may be right. And I agree that if KP are at odds to the AUA and can demonstrate that the use of Cxbladder is "best practice" (I don't thnk they can..) then sure, CMS will likely cover the cost of the test.

But again. We have nothing from KP to confirm that they will be using the tests outside the recommendation of the AUA.

[drcjp]

As someone who knows these things because I deal with it every day, can i just inform about clinical guidelines.
they are guidelines. Docs are not BOUND to follow them to the letter, they should conform to them though.

Private insurers in the USA can use any test they like, provided it has FDA approval and LCD coverage.
Using the test does not need clinical guideline approval, so long as the doc does 95-99% of what the guidelines recommend.
There are many, many tests that docs use outside of guideline recommendations to answer other questions as not all patients are created equal.

If Kaiser and others have accepted the use of CxBladder as useful (which they have), then its not a guideline issue, its a marketing issue.

We shall see how that pans out.

[sunnysleeper11]

@drcjp - Thanks for the insight - more please!
Great discussion on this forum but it all seems like a lot of well intentioned guess work.
A question on a Docs mindset please drcjp
Can you see the use of CX being quickly accepted over invasive cystoscopy by US Docs?
Can their mindset be changed fairly rapidly or do you see CX implemention to be gradual over the next 10 years or so?
Cheers

[Poverty]

We've already come so far :) Hang in tight?

The next announcement is going to make or break peoples confidence

[LEMON]

We need to remember Pacific Edge is expanding its team. Why expand if you aren't expecting growth?
I think we are in for a nice surprise personally with the last announcement it seems like it is all heading in the right direction.

[drcjp]

@drcjp - Thanks for the insight - more please!
Great discussion on this forum but it all seems like a lot of well intentioned guess work.
A question on a Docs mindset please drcjp
Can you see the use of CX being quickly accepted over invasive cystoscopy by US Docs?
Can their mindset be changed fairly rapidly or do you see CX implemention to be gradual over the next 10 years or so?
Cheers

I don’t think CXB will overtake scoping. It will complement it. Urologists in the USA get 1100-1400 a scope. 3-4 day pays very nicely.

Hard to tell how long it will take. Depends if it gets well adopted as a screen at home as they have been promoting.

[Minerbarejet]

I don’t think CXB will overtake scoping. It will complement it. Urologists in the USA get 1100-1400 a scope. 3-4 day pays very nicely.

Hard to tell how long it will take. Depends if it gets well adopted as a screen at home as they have been promoting.

Does anyone know if urologists in the employ of Kaiser Permanente get paid a salary?

If they are on a salary why would they be getting that amount per scope.

I can see that for a private urologist with no connection to a large organization like Kaiser.

[Carpenterjoe]

I don’t think CXB will overtake scoping. It will complement it. Urologists in the USA get 1100-1400 a scope. 3-4 day pays very nicely.

Hard to tell how long it will take. Depends if it gets well adopted as a screen at home as they have been promoting.

I hope they do not miss anything!!!!

The urologist with the best technology does not need to worry about Churn.

Testing at home is very different to screening,

[sunnysleeper11]

I don’t think CXB will overtake scoping. It will complement it. Urologists in the USA get 1100-1400 a scope. 3-4 day pays very nicely.

Hard to tell how long it will take. Depends if it gets well adopted as a screen at home as they have been promoting.



Thanks dr. So there's a bit of "get off my turf" in relation to CXB - even though studies point to CX having a similar cancer detection success.

[Greekwatchdog]

Any shareholder in Akl go to this?
https://mailchi.mp/pelnz/pacific-edge-meet-greet-invitation?e=e182c149b3

[baaantom]

Any shareholder in Akl go to this?
https://mailchi.mp/pelnz/pacific-edge-meet-greet-invitation?e=e182c149b3

Im gonna go. It's on the 1st of December.

[850man]

Im gonna go. It's on the 1st of December.

I'll go too. Have a few questions to ask these folk so a perfect opportunity, unless they have told me prior

[Greekwatchdog]

That's good news especially given its a few days after half year results.

[850man]

That's good news especially given its a few days after half year results.

My answers will hopefully be forthcoming in the 1/2 year result. hoping for good news and this will be very jovial and light hearted event:D

[Mel]

Im gonna go. It's on the 1st of December.
I'm planning to go. I'm not sure if they've done this before (I have held the shares for a number of years) but I think its a good sign that they've organised such an event - and particularly so given that it follows their half year result.

[Alpha]

Interim results 26th of November. They must be good otherwise why would they host a meet and greet.

[forest]

Interim results 26th of November. They must be good otherwise why would they host a meet and greet.

Capital raise ???

[whatsup]

Capital raise ???

Get real, read their company anns over the last year !!!

[forest]

Get real, read their company anns over the last year !!!

Maybe look at the company's history a little further back. See if you can spot a trend.
Clue, cash flow.

[Greekwatchdog]

They just got $20m and change from ANZ for 5% odd of the company...No need to a CR.

[sunnysleeper11]

Maybe look at the company's history a little further back. See if you can spot a trend.
Clue, cash flow.

You might want to look a little further forward historically than what you are - for instance the Kaiser win, the CMS approval and ANZ 20m cash injection.

[forest]

You might want to look a little further forward historically than what you are - for instance the Kaiser win, the CMS approval and ANZ 20m cash injection.

I did add 3 question marks with my comments.
Do you think PEB will be cashflow positief?

[Justin]

Why still no any update about reimbursement?

[sunnysleeper11]

I did add 3 question marks with my comments.
Do you think PEB will be cashflow positief?

Most probably not. I think the 20m from ANZ should see them alright for 6 months or so though. After that any cap raise will be dependent on the cashflow from the new US wins....

[forest]

Most probably not. I think the 20m from ANZ should see them alright for 6 months or so though. After that any cap raise will be dependent on the cashflow from the new US wins....

That is how I see it too. And it makes sense for PEB to keep investors on it's side and informed with an investors meet just in case more funds are required in future.

[Alpha]

Few biggish off market buys today.

[Lion_graf]

Great conversation this afternoon. Amir Zarrabi, Associate Professor of Urology at the University of Otago and recently appointed TD Scott Chair, stops by to discuss pioneering new treatment for testicular cancer and male fertility.

[LEMON]

Great conversation this afternoon. Amir Zarrabi, Associate Professor of Urology at the University of Otago and recently appointed TD Scott Chair, stops by to discuss pioneering new treatment for testicular cancer and male fertility.

Morning lion_graf are you saying pacific edge are looking to begin treatment test kits for these male issues?

[Lion_graf]

Morning lion_graf are you saying pacific edge are looking to begin treatment test kits for these male issues?

It's possible.

Also possible that these guys are just developing a product and are conversing with PE to gain knowledge and have no intention to use PE but want to learn how to develop and get it to market.

[davflaws]

It's possible.

Also possible that these guys are just developing a product and are conversing with PE to gain knowledge and have no intention to use PE but want to learn how to develop and get it to market.

On their track record - I don't think PEB could be regarded as superexperts in bringing products to market.

[jonu]

More positives around the US growth

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/363492/335449.pdf

[850man]

More positives around the US growth

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/363492/335449.pdf

That's great, now just need this restructuring followed up with a "show me the money" :-)

[calledone]

That's great, now just need this restructuring followed up with a "show me the money" :-)

We will get a taste of it next week.

[calledone]

PEB chart forming a cup and handle on the weekly. Can someone good at TA confirm?

12104

[Alpha]

it does look that way but I am def no expert in TA

[winner69]

peb chart forming a cup and handle on the weekly. Can someone good at ta confirm?

12104

time to go long

bullish

[Tsuba]

Bloody chart huggers I thought it ment smoko time.

[jridler]

Volume in an uptrend is as good a smoke signal as anything, ignoring all the other technical 'patterns'. For a parallel, look back at volume traded on ATM during the first breakout in October 2015.

[drcjp]

Starter for 10:

how many tests will PEB announce on Thurs via KP ± CMS?

1) tens of thousands?
2) low thousands?
3) couple hundred with thousands anticipated over next 2 Q's?

Time for some numbers pls DD.

[Balance]

Starter for 10:

how many tests will PEB announce on Thurs via KP ± CMS?

1) tens of thousands?
2) low thousands?
3) couple hundred with thousands anticipated over next 2 Q's?

Time for some numbers pls DD.

Better hope PEB has learnt the lesson - underpromise & consistently over deliver.

[Watchful]

I wouldn’t be expecting much from Kaiser yet - the investor update at the start of October stated they were still completing the electronic integration into the Kaiser systems.

“ We expect to have the majority of this work completed shortly, enabling Kaiser to start ordering commercial tests.”

CMS should hopefully be beginning to ramp up though.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/361037/332397.pdf

[whatsup]

Nice finish @ .74 !!

[drcjp]

Nice finish @ .74 !!

hmmm...yes and plenty of offers this am at .76

hmmm.....the cynic in me is aroused

[imarktu]

I'm sure I saw those offers reach .78 before open, yet it opened and now sits at 72.
As someone very much still learning the ropes, is anyone able to offer any insight as to what might have gone on here? Just out of interest.

[Balance]

I'm sure I saw those offers reach .78 before open, yet it opened and now sits at 72.
As someone very much still learning the ropes, is anyone able to offer any insight as to what might have gone on here? Just out of interest.

Market matches bid & offer orders on opening to reach an average opening price - simplistically.

You can put 100 shares to buy at $1.00 and you will still get filled at 73c given the weight & volume of selling at 73c.

[imarktu]

Market matches bid & offer orders on opening to reach an average opening price - simplistically.

You can put 100 shares to buy at $1.00 and you will still get filled at 73c given the weight & volume of selling at 73c.

Ah, gotcha. Makes sense - thank you.

[luckyperi]

it looks like it will now continue making up ward trend till 26 in anticipation. interesting time.

[kiwidollabill]

I see they've just put an ad out for a COO, good?

[James564]

Activity looking a little static today considering announcement tomorrow, possible good sign ?

[Balance]

I see they've just put an ad out for a COO, good?

Any link to the ad?

Always interesting to see why they are looking to appoint a COO.

[calledone]

Any link to the ad?

Always interesting to see why they are looking to appoint a COO.

They did mention it here in October. See last paragraph.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361510

[Minerbarejet]

An interested bystander suggested that the appointment of David Levison to a senior position is a bit of a coup as Jackie Walker, et al will be reporting to him.

He is US based anyway and will report directly to DD.

GLTAH for tomorrow, I feel there will be much to discuss

[pierre]

GLTAH for tomorrow, I feel there will be much to discuss

I sure hope so Miner - and that PEB has some dollars to count too!

[Minerbarejet]

I sure hope so Miner - and that PEB has some dollars to count too!
Wouldnt expect a lot with CMS only coming to the party recently, Pierre, however it was stated that August and September were records for the months involved so there could be a satisfactory trend evolving.
I really hope they give us some kind of an update for the period since HY 2021 end and if Kaiser is finally underway with the electronics system up and running. I see that Kaiser are doing a lot of that with other stuff as well.

[davflaws]

I have just returned from a flexible cystoscopy - which showed nothing so since I have only ever had low grade tumours and the last one was three years ago - I have been discharged. That's all good, but when I asked why the cystoscopy was preferred /necessary this time rather than CX Bladder monitor, the urologist said that because of the outpatient clinic setup, it was cheaper than a urinary biomarker test.
He also said that he expected that (regardless of cost), CX Bladder was likely to be used in preliminary screening by GPs because there was a nationwide shortage of urologists.

[Retired Doc]

I have just returned from a flexible cystoscopy - which showed nothing so since I have only ever had low grade tumours and the last one was three years ago - I have been discharged. That's all good, but when I asked why the cystoscopy was preferred /necessary this time rather than CX Bladder monitor, the urologist said that because of the outpatient clinic setup, it was cheaper than a urinary biomarker test.
He also said that he expected that (regardless of cost), CX Bladder was likely to be used in preliminary screening by GPs because there was a nationwide shortage of urologists.

It may also be there is a perverse situation where the DHB's are funded for cystoscopies and therefore it is better for their bottom line to get cystoscopies done rather than have the not inexpensive CxBladder tests done even though the former consumes more of the scarce urologist resource.

[Getty]

Urologists.
Yep, someone's taking the piss...

[Minerbarejet]

I have just returned from a flexible cystoscopy - which showed nothing so since I have only ever had low grade tumours and the last one was three years ago - I have been discharged. That's all good, but when I asked why the cystoscopy was preferred /necessary this time rather than CX Bladder monitor, the urologist said that because of the outpatient clinic setup, it was cheaper than a urinary biomarker test.
He also said that he expected that (regardless of cost), CX Bladder was likely to be used in preliminary screening by GPs because there was a nationwide shortage of urologists.
Very pleased to hear that you have been discharged whichever way it was achieved.

[Justin]

Good morning all, when the result will be release on NZX website? sweet as.

[Balance]

Good morning all, when the result will be release on NZX website? sweet as.

Usually PEB has reported before market opens.

[thegreatestben]

From their investor news page:

“Pacific Edge would like to announce that half year results for the six months ending 30 September 2020 will be released on Thursday 26 November 2020, prior to 10am.”

[Balance]

From their investor news page:

“Pacific Edge would like to announce that half year results for the six months ending 30 September 2020 will be released on Thursday 26 November 2020, prior to 10am.”

Probably for the first time in recent years, they could have added ' ... and we will not be announcing yet another rights issue!'

[Minerbarejet]

Usually PEB has reported before market opens.Certainly hope they do, we dont want any repeats of that fiasco several years ago.

[Balance]

Certainly hope they do, we dont want any repeats of that fiasco several years ago.

Imo, sp is going to swing much higher or much lower on what gets reported with CMS & progress with collection of the US$40m backpay.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/pacific-edge-seeks-us40m-backpay-from-us-administrator

[Brain]

Imo, sp is going to swing much higher or much lower on what gets reported with CMS & progress with collection of the US$40m backpay.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/pacific-edge-seeks-us40m-backpay-from-us-administrator

It could also stay the same or move just a little bit.

[Balance]

It could also stay the same or move just a little bit.

We shall see - there's a lot of expectations & anticipations and anxieties regarding PEB's progress from my discussions with long suffering shareholders, new shareholders and traders.

[Greekwatchdog]

Wel if the result isn't to your liking and you live in Akl pop in and see them next week and ask "The question"

[Balance]

Wel if the result isn't to your liking and you live in Akl pop in and see them next week and ask "The question"

That will happen - talking about sp reaction today & tomorrow.

[Greekwatchdog]

Here it is. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/363969/336110.pdf

[Leftfield]

Results out now - Revenue up 50% but still making a loss of $7.1 mill..... see it here. (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/363969/336110.pdf)

[Minerbarejet]

LOL

From the presentation.

Cxbladder’s patient in-home urine sample collection system (PIHSS) is an enabler of telehealth.

Someone has a sense of humour:)

[winner69]

Results out now - Revenue up 50% but still making a loss of $7.1 mill..... see it here. (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/363969/336110.pdf)

But an improvement on last year - as they say Total Comprehensive Loss improved 25% to $7.1m

[drcjp]

Early notes:
- no guarantee of any money from previous tests via Novitas - truth & is the right thing to say (promise nothing then any deliver is a win)
- $0.8M from CMS receipts since July - ok, but needs improving QxQ
- New phrase from DD "gas up" the tests for KP - lexicon obviously being well used
- by my calc have 4Qs left of money at current burn. This needs improving now.

[Leftfield]

But an improvement on last year - as they say Total Comprehensive Loss improved 25% to $7.1m

Yeah inching towards profitability. Cash burn reducing. I'm happy to hold.

[nevchev]

Unimpressed! 7.1 mln loss.
Testing down 15%.25% in USA
Testing down due to covid but i thought home testing would benefit from covid precautions?

[pierre]

Yeah inching towards profitability. Cash burn reducing. I'm happy to hold.
I'm happy-ish with the news. Obviously Covid has had an impact but could prove to be longer term beneficial in growing the telehealth market.
H2 should show further improvement. I think PEB is finally on the
move and the future looks bright.
No immediate good stuff so I expect the SP to wobble a bit until a reimbursement announcement is made - hopefully it will be a positive one.

[winner69]

One day there will be 'hundreds of thousands of tests'

[Greekwatchdog]

This is a start. The 2nd half will give us a better guide into the future.

[Minerbarejet]

I'm happy-ish with the news. Obviously Covid has had an impact but could prove to be longer term beneficial in growing the telehealth market.
H2 should show further improvement. I think PEB is finally on the
move and the future looks bright.
No immediate good stuff so I expect the SP to wobble a bit until a reimbursement announcement is made - hopefully it will be a positive one.
There is definitely an improvement despite Covid.
Good to see that Kaiser is in full swing and now the telehealth can really get into action.
Each month since July has been a record PCP
All good, happy to hold.

[Merc]

Unimpressed! 7.1 mln loss.
Testing down 15%.25% in USA
Testing down due to covid but i thought home testing would benefit from covid precautions?

For me, pretty much as expected. Covid has both speeded things up and slowed things down.

Speeded it up? The advantages of remote testing has become obvious

Slowed it down? People have hidden in their bunkers and ignored symptoms till it is safe to come out or symptoms become acute.

And although this is a half yearly report the big changes have only happened in the last month or 3.

[RTM]

Not a current holder but still interested.
What “impressed” me at first look is t he size of the numbers...or lack of
Total Rev of 4.1mil....and that’s a 50% increase.
It’s minuscule really.
Even selling used cars we get ~150ml.
Long way to go...pleased to be out...will continue to watch with interest.
GLTAH !

[calledone]

Good result and with 68% increase pcp in Oct the momentum is picking up. If they continue this going forward and with further adoptions, they could be turning profitable in the next couple of years or earlier.

[RTM]

Not a current holder but still interested.
What “impressed” me at first look is the size of the numbers...or lack of
Total Rev of 4.1mil....and that’s a 50% increase.
It’s minuscule really.
Even selling used cars we get ~150ml.
Long way to go...pleased to be out...will continue to watch with interest.
GLTAH !

[Minerbarejet]

Good result and with 68% increase pcp in Oct the momentum is picking up. If they continue this going forward and with further adoptions, they could be turning profitable in the next couple of years or earlier.If they have 68% pcp in October what will Nov/ Dec bring with Kaiser getting underway at this time.

[calledone]

If they have 68% pcp in October what will Nov/ Dec bring with Kaiser getting underway at this time.

Exactly what I'm thinking too.

[whatsup]

Interesting to see the open today.

[golden city]

If they keep this growing rate plus kaiser. It could almost break even in second half.

[nevchev]

If they keep this growing rate plus kaiser. It could almost break even in second half.
Of what?This century!!

[psychic]

Pretty much as I expected. Don't expect any real traction until recommended in cllnical guidelines and and this will require publication of further research.
At least they have acknowledged the need for this now and also admitted the unlikelihood of recovery of previous CMS test revenue.
More fluff to keep the wheels on till then. Convenient to make a big deal about the lockdown affecting test throughput numbers but there will have been a lot of catching up to do in the latter 4 months - and this likely the reason for the trumpeted growth in that period.

[Minerbarejet]

An interested bystander has brought this to my attention.

• Publication of a white paper summarising the results from the completed user programs from five public hospitals in Singapore.

We also await the PEB and Kaiser papers for additional validity.

[psychic]

Do you have a link Miner?

[Minerbarejet]

Do you have a link Miner?
Sure, page 23 of the presentation for the bit in red

[psychic]

I see they are also now quietly acknowledging that tests will be only reimbursed by CMS when "medically necessary"

We discussed this a few weeks ago. CMS definition:

MEDICALLY NECESSARY
Services or supplies that: are proper and needed for the diagnosis or treatment of your medical condition, are provided for the diagnosis, direct care, and treatment of your medical condition, meet the standards of good medical practice in the local area, and aren't mainly for the convenience of you or your doctor.
...

The "standards of good medical practice" are those set by the AUA

The AUA do not recommend the use of Urinary biomarkers.

[psychic]

Sure, page 23 of the presentation for the bit in red

Oh okay thanks, not published yet.

[James564]

wow share price dropping quickly

[Minerbarejet]

I see they are also now quietly acknowledging that tests will be only reimbursed by CMS when "medically necessary"

We discussed this a few weeks ago. CMS definition:

MEDICALLY NECESSARY
Services or supplies that: are proper and needed for the diagnosis or treatment of your medical condition, are provided for the diagnosis, direct care, and treatment of your medical condition, meet the standards of good medical practice in the local area, and aren't mainly for the convenience of you or your doctor.
...

The "standards of good medical practice" are those set by the AUA

The AUA do not recommend the use of Urinary biomarkers.
So are you saying that Kaiser Permanente with 12million patients and known as a leading healthcare provider and having impeccable standards who have accepted cxBladderas a useful tool are not following the "standards of good medical practice"?

Find that pretty hard to follow.

[Brain]

Not a current holder but still interested.
What “impressed” me at first look is t he size of the numbers...or lack of
Total Rev of 4.1mil....and that’s a 50% increase.
It’s minuscule really.
Even selling used cars we get ~150ml.
Long way to go...pleased to be out...will continue to watch with interest.
GLTAH !

The difference is that used car dealers don't buy cars for $100 and sell them for $US 760

The testing capacity of 260,000 tests per annum is also impressive. All depends now on the skill of the board and management.

[psychic]

So are you saying that Kaiser Permanente with 12million patients and known as a leading healthcare provider and having impeccable standards who have accepted cxBladderas a useful tool are not following the "standards of good medical practice"?

Find that pretty hard to follow.

No. What I am saying is that CMS, Kaiser, the world really, will use the tests when appropriate. Having a commercial agreement with KP does not mean they will be adopting it wholesale or replacing what is considered gold standard.

[psychic]

Here in NZ 65% of the DHB's actually have it in the Clinical pathway. Yet what is the growth NZ if you strip out grants etc?

[Brain]

No. What I am saying is that CMS, Kaiser, the world really, will use the tests when appropriate. Having a commercial agreement with KP does not mean they will be adopting it wholesale or replacing what is considered gold standard.

The tests will be applied if it is more profitable to do so

[Balance]

Imo, sp is going to swing much higher or much lower on what gets reported with CMS & progress with collection of the US$40m backpay.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/pacific-edge-seeks-us40m-backpay-from-us-administrator

Sp to test 65c?

[Getty]

58c by Xmas.
If it wasnt for the ANZ pumping in $25M, thats where it would be now.

[Balance]

58c by Xmas.
If it wasnt for the ANZ pumping in $25M, thats where it would be now.

Don’t think so.

Buying opportunity at 65c imo.

85c by Christmas once traders are out by next week.

[Getty]

For the sake of the s/holders, I hope you are right.
I took 72/3 today

[Getty]

If it slices thru the 100MA @ 65c, 50c could be on the cards.
If the traders believed it will be 85c by Xmas, I dont think they would be selling now sub70c

[golden city]

There is no if in investing. It is because anz buys in. That is why I like it

[Balance]

If it slices thru the 100MA @ 65c, 50c could be on the cards.
If the traders believed it will be 85c by Xmas, I dont think they would be selling now sub70c

Of course they don’t. That’s why they are selling and that’s why there are buyers!

[Getty]

and thats why the price is down 6.8% to 68c already on strong volume, because they all are thinking of that 85c

[psychic]

Overpriced on knowns even at the .30 gap if we are all just guessing. They just are not as far down the road as they are making out.

[psychic]

There is no if in investing. It is because anz buys in. That is why I like it

Be more encouraging if the Insiders were buying....

[Balance]

and thats why the price is down 6.8% to 68c already on strong volume, because they all are thinking of that 85c

Entirely predictable!

Just as I predicted this morning about what would happen.

[Balance]

Be more encouraging if the Insiders were buying....

They get plenty of free options - no need to buy. Very American style remuneration packages. Similar to ATM.

[Getty]

maybe not useless info is that $1.3M is on offer, to get the price up to 85c, but only $362K in the other direction will take it to, wait for it, 7c.

The part that gets me, is that if I tried to bid at 7c, my broker wouldnt accept it.
Is it time to join Sharesies?

[Balance]

maybe not useless info is that $1.3M is on offer, to get the price up to 85c, but only $362K in the other direction will take it to, wait for it, 7c.

The part that gets me, is that if I tried to bid at 7c, my broker wouldnt accept it.
Is it time to join Sharesies?

Is that how you assess and judge the depth in the market?

I guess I need your expertise to time my entry - seems like I always buy too soon or sell too early!

[Getty]

Not the extremities, just the middle ground.
It was the bids all the way down to 7c that caught my eye, nevertheless.

[Retired Doc]

I did a quick google but could not find the results referred to by Miner?

[Merc]

With any investment, being it shares, property, art, gold or whatever there are pretty much 3 sorts of investors.

1. Did homework. Buy and Hold. Ride the ups and downs expecting on their homework that over the long term it will all work out at maximum profit.

2. Did homework. Traders/Speculators. After quick capital gains (In property Speculators pre brightlne test, or Developers who add value being it a reno, add garage or redevelop the entire site) take the short-term profit and move on

Neither of these approaches is wrong. So long as one knows and appreciated the tax implications ... and pays the tax.

3. Then there are Others... Like Beginners...

We've all been there, done that, bought the tee shirt, seen the movie, moved on... and maybe learnt a bit along the way.

For us it was buying a couple of significant Right things at the Wrong time then selling them at the Wrong time when the market started to improve. Probably the best learning curve ever.

Kiwisaver. How many people, a few months ago, cashed out of growth funds due to covid and lived it to regret it? (I finally, self employed, JOINED Kiwisaver, growth fund of course, in April)

For me, Buy and Hold works. And I'm quite happy to buy more shares in PEB when the Traders plus Others sell.

[Minerbarejet]

I did a quick google but could not find the results referred to by Miner?

Which bit are you looking for, Doc?

[LEMON]

With any investment, being it shares, property, art, gold or whatever there are pretty much 3 sorts of investors.

1. Did homework. Buy and Hold. Ride the ups and downs expecting on their homework that over the long term it will all work out at maximum profit.

2. Did homework. Traders/Speculators. After quick capital gains (In property Speculators pre brightlne test, or Developers who add value being it a reno, add garage or redevelop the entire site) take the short-term profit and move on

Neither of these approaches is wrong. So long as one knows and appreciated the tax implications ... and pays the tax.

3. Then there are Others... Like Beginners...

We've all been there, done that, bought the tee shirt, seen the movie, moved on... and maybe learnt a bit along the way.

For us it was buying a couple of significant Right things at the Wrong time then selling them at the Wrong time when the market started to improve. Probably the best learning curve ever.

Kiwisaver. How many people, a few months ago, cashed out of growth funds due to covid and lived it to regret it? (I finally, self employed, JOINED Kiwisaver, growth fund of course, in April)

For me, Buy and Hold works. And I'm quite happy to buy more shares in PEB when the Traders plus Others sell.

Straight to the point, no ifs or buts, no rights or wrongs. Just some solid straight forward easy to understand advice, no shaming, no ego. No, I have so you should also, I don't have so you shouldn't.

Appreciate this post. Thank you!

I will also be holding for many years and look to ride the roller coaster.

Your point is very concrete, we all take responsibility for our research and actions and hold tight if you believe in the company.

[Longhaul]

I did a quick google but could not find the results referred to by Miner?

Make sure you look in the presentation. Slide 23, bottom right corner (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/363969/336111.pdf).

[zs_cecil]

I think the result is still encouraging.
I gathered all the existing data and summarised it in the spreadsheet.

based on the number If I didn't make any mistake:
* the major declines are obviously from non-CMS related tests from US
* The number of CMS tests does not look bad at all. ( 845 before approval and 1815 after approval in FY21H1 vs Total CMS Tests 4474 in FY20)
* CMS Revenue - Cash Receipt 1.29m NZD + Receivable 769.8k NZD

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10ZogKefPBTnomE0o4NfpQ1SZk678zQrbyqkgkBL9tbY/edit?usp=sharing

[golden city]

If the number is correct we will hit 10m
Second half

[zs_cecil]

If the number is correct we will hit 10m
Second half

If PEB can keep up the CMS test number as FY21H1, the full year revenue is very likely to hit 10m ( a few million cash inflow from CMS + potential revenue from KP)
It doesn't sound bad at all.

[Justin]

yes the result is encouraging but do not match the 500m market cap

[golden city]

it is a long term play

[zs_cecil]

yes the result is encouraging but do not match the 500m market cap

You are probably right.
However, since ANZ was willing to pay the price at 0.65 ~ 100x of FY20 Revenue, why can't we use the same logic to think that its market cap will increase to 1B when its revenue hits 10m (in just 1 year after FY20)
I take this as an extremely optimistic scenario ;-)

[Brain]

yes the result is encouraging but do not match the 500m market cap

Yes and that is the reason I never invested in Xero and sold out of A2 too early.

[Greekwatchdog]

Exactly Brain. I invested in A2 10 years ago. Sold 3/4 and will hold 1/4 forever as I can't lose. PEB has same prospects just all about execution..

[Minerbarejet]

We keep seeing the figure of 800,000 patients in the US requiring ongoing monitoring for bladder cancer after an operation for the disease.
There is also a strong case put forward for regular retests every 4 months or so.
If these figures are accurate then the pool of Monitoring tests via cystoscopy or cxbladder required is 2.4 million per annum.

As was apparent by the HY results there was a reduction in cxbladder tests done and the suggestion has been made that this was due to the Coronavirus and that the patients were reluctant to go to or were unable to access medical centres for any testing required.
Would this not leave a large group of patients ,growing in numbers, and falling behind in updating their status.

[Justin]

I thought the coronavirus should increase more patients to adopt cxbladder test at home

[Minerbarejet]

I thought the coronavirus should increase more patients to adopt cxbladder test at home
Yes, but you need the system in place to operate it.
It has to be done and initiated under medical supervision.
You cant just go down to the dairy and pick up a 6 pack of cxbladder tests and post the result off.

[Justin]

I thought the scenario like online consult with GP, then GP will order cxbladder and post to patient. What your means of medical supervision?

[Minerbarejet]

I thought the scenario like online consult with GP, then GP will order cxbladder and post to patient. What your means of medical supervision?
That is about right.
I think to save double handling the GP will order electronically from PEB who will post a kit, check the sample once it arrives and post the result to the GP electronically.
The GP will then get back to the patient via telehealth with the hopefully good news.

[zs_cecil]

I thought the scenario like online consult with GP, then GP will order cxbladder and post to patient. What your means of medical supervision?

Perhaps you would need to check the timeframe and what preparation was underway for KP before PEB could offer the service of in-home sampling.

Please refer back to the slide 26 in the annual meeting presentation on 05/08/2020
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/357488/327784.pdf

And check page 2 in the last investor update in October:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/361037/332397.pdf

[Balance]

and thats why the price is down 6.8% to 68c already on strong volume, because they all are thinking of that 85c

And today they are starting to pay up because they are thinking of $1.00?

[calledone]

Large off market transactions today, think any significance?

[Alpha]

Another 500K of shares has just gone through.

[Merc]

Straight to the point, no ifs or buts, no rights or wrongs. Just some solid straight forward easy to understand advice, no shaming, no ego. No, I have so you should also, I don't have so you shouldn't.

Appreciate this post. Thank you!

I will also be holding for many years and look to ride the roller coaster.

Your point is very concrete, we all take responsibility for our research and actions and hold tight if you believe in the company.

Thank you.

And under "Others" there will also be those whose goals have changed. Probably hung onto PEB hoping the results would increase the share value and when it didn't, time to move on.
Like buy a house or top up the bank account that took a hit from Covid or...

I seem to recall selling a number of Ryman shares a decade back in order to keep the flexible part of the mortgage from blowing out.

[Minerbarejet]

Finding out some interesting bits about Kaiser

1 The doctors are all salaried therefore the need to make money by doing expensive cystoscopies is negated.
2. They have 700 medical centers which people under monitoring will be avoiding going to where possible under the current and continuing Covid upheaval.
3. Telehealth seems to have taken hold (95%) to reduce patient exposure at the medical centres
4. Cystoscopies are incompatible with telehealth unless the latest Iphone comes with a camera to stick up your whizzer.
5. If cystoscopies cannot be performed then what use are their guidelines.
6. Enter Stage left, CxBladder Monitor

[barney]

The investor conference call post the interim announcement makes for some interesting listening, although the audio cuts out a few times.

-Record revenue for October and November

- KP integrating cxbladder into their internal systems which could take seven months but in the mean time tests will be billed manually. PEB " very bullish regarding KP"

-Canterbury DHB to release findings( around 18 December from memory ) of a study regarding patients who have had negative test results. DD made mention that the study results were very favourable..

[Brain]

Finding out some interesting bits about Kaiser

1 The doctors are all salaried therefore the need to make money by doing expensive cystoscopies is negated.
2. They have 700 medical centers which people under monitoring will be avoiding going to where possible under the current and continuing Covid upheaval.
3. Telehealth seems to have taken hold (95%) to reduce patient exposure at the medical centres
4. Cystoscopies are incompatible with telehealth unless the latest Iphone comes with a camera to stick up your whizzer.
5. If cystoscopies cannot be performed then what use are their guidelines.
6. Enter Stage left, CxBladder Monitor

Thanks for that post Miner. All very good points. I particularly like the first one.

[ba9]

I am guessing with anything New, it takes the wider medical community time to adopt and also to move away from using existing Cystoscopy for all tests.

It's only a matter of time :)

[Leftfield]

Barney & Miner thanks for your posts. Very helpful..... keep up the good work. Onwards and upwards.

[Minerbarejet]

I am guessing with anything New, it takes the wider medical community time to adopt and also to move away from using existing Cystoscopy for all tests.

It's only a matter of time :)Might be quite wrong on all this but it seems that under the current circumstances in the US, cxBladder offers a viable alternative when medical facilities are under pressure and are regarded with some hesitancy on the part of patients.
Lockdowns and stay at home orders add further reasons for patients to maintain their monitoring via this method.
Once established I get the impression that patients and doctors will continue to use cxBladder Monitor through the PIHSS system providing the required information on patient status.

A Positive cxbladder test indicating further investigation by cystoscopy and possible operation being required immediately.

A Negative test indicating the non presence of bladder cancer in the sample provided resulting in another monitor test in 3 or 4 months time

[Merc]

This Auckland Meet and Greet Thing tomorrow (Long time holder, added shares over the years, looking forward to it)

Now, is there a secret handshake, signal, whatever for Sharetrader members?

I'd like to meet other members. So.... clues?

For me, hanging out with my brother, probably somewhere near the asparagus rolls seeing we'll either miss dinner or end up buying hamburgers if the snacks aren't great.

[Alpha]

Enjoy Merc - I cannot make it due to other commitments - Hope you get a chance to met a few other ST members. Otherwise enjoy.

[Dentie]

This Auckland Meet and Greet Thing tomorrow (Long time holder, added shares over the years, looking forward to it)

For me, hanging out with my brother, probably somewhere near the asparagus rolls seeing we'll either miss dinner or end up buying hamburgers if the snacks aren't great.

Sorry to hear about having to end up buying hamburgers Merc but don't worry... this time next year and you would hopefully be able to substitute the hamburgers with a decent sized lump of steak!! :D

[Greekwatchdog]

All served down with a Bottle of Te Mata Coleraine 2003.. hmmm. Enjoy the Asparagus Rolls

[Merc]

All served down with a Bottle of Te Mata Coleraine 2003.. hmmm. Enjoy the Asparagus Rolls

Too upmarket for asparagus roles, but very tasty food. Water only tonight as driving.

Interesting evening.

They obviously learnt their lesson back in 2014 about promising too soon and discovering the time frames were unobtainable, so are now keeping their cards very close to their chest.

Covid, as expected, had a big impact.

Pro: Brought forward advances in tele-health and contracts
Cons: In America overworked hospitals, elective surgeries postponed, overworked hospital staff, lack of access for sales reps etc. This has slowed down expansion over there

They are very keen to see the Covid vaccine working and made significant mention of it.

My feeling? Things are definitely progressing but with covid cases increasing dramatically in the States it could take some months for the money to really start rolling in.

Personally I'm a Happy Holder

[Cyclical]

Thanks for sharing, Merc. Sounds like a file in the bottom drawer and forget about it type of stock then. At least you had some nice snacks in lieu of any near term dividends :-)

[Greekwatchdog]

Thanks Merc for your update, much appreciated.

[Merc]

How the Meet and Greet worked....

The bar is a long, thin room which, design wise, was quite cozy,. Bar at one end, giant screen at the other.

The Board members and executive team were either side of the screen, the visitors scattered round the room.

112 shareholders were registered to attend.

After a spot of mingling the screen came live to the Chairman of the Board in Australia and things got underway.

First an introduction to each of the team members, both here and the 3 or 4 overseas, and a description of their roles. Then a basic guide to where they are at, kind of like the AGM only less detail. And they made it very clear that they couldn't go into great detail for commercial reasons.

This was followed by questions from the floor. This all took around an hour.

Then it was mingling and chat. We left at 7pm.

[Merc]

Basically we got to put names to faces, met them face to face, saw them as real people, met a few other shareholders, ate some really nice snacks...

No earth shattering breaking news.

The one significant thing I picked up was the confirmation of my suspicions of the impact of Covid on the business.

Whilst it has brought forward the advances of Tele-health it has also slowed growth in sales.
With vaccines coming, the downside is probably short term.

[Merc]

One small confirmation of this. Apparently NZ sales have increased thanks to our Covid scare and small moves towards Tele-health.

The States are a mess. 10th worst Covid affected country in the world and with winter plus Thanksgiving travel along with conflicting messages from the leaders it can only get worse over the next few months until a vaccine has been well distributed.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[kiora]

I would be very worried if the amount of sales were already as slow or slower than they already were.

[Merc]

Oh, and one question from the floor, "Can we get monthly updates?"

Chairman, head in hands, groans from the team...

Answer, "A lot of work and a bit too commercially sensitive, but they are thinking of quarterly updates... at some point..."

[Merc]

Kiora,

I didn't get the impression sales are slowing, after all there were the 2 big contracts that were signed 4 months ago so paid testing will be increasing.

More that covid has slowed down further expansion in the short term.

If the vaccines work news sites indicate that by mid 2021 covid will no longer have its massive grip on the world.

[sunnysleeper11]

A little more action with PEB before the start today...

[drcjp]

Somebody liked the sausage rolls and Dave's new haircut at the meet and greet.....

[Poverty]

What happened at the meet and greet?

[Minerbarejet]

What happened at the meet and greet?Something positive by the looks of the SP.
Makes a change.

[Getty]

The canapes must have been hot & spicy, cos its got things going this morning.

[calledone]

It's also hope that a successful vaccine will eventually lift sales in US.

[Merc]

What happened at the meet and greet?

Read back over the last few posts. End of page 935 onwards. I did my best to describe it and my thoughts from it.

[Pegasus2000]

Analysts pick Pacific Edge to double in value Jarden initiates coverage with a bullish outlook. - NBR

[Longhaul]

Analysts pick Pacific Edge to double in value Jarden initiates coverage with a bullish outlook. - NBR

Thanks for the heads up Pegasus.

[Pegasus2000]

You are welcome, Longhaul!

[Minerbarejet]

Phenomenal growth in telehealth in the Medicare arena
From the CMS
“During the COVID-19 pandemic, actions by the Trump Administrationhave unleashed an explosion in telehealth innovation, and we’re now moving tomake many of these changes permanent,” said HHS Secretary Alex Azar. “Medicarebeneficiaries will now be able to receive dozens of new services viatelehealth, and we’ll keep exploring ways to deliver Americans access tohealthcare in the setting that they and their doctor decide makes sense forthem.”
“Telehealth has long been a priority for the Trump Administration,which is why we started paying for short virtual visits in rural areas longbefore the pandemic struck,” said CMS Administrator Seema Verma. “But thepandemic accentuated just how transformative it could be, and several monthsin, it’s clear that the healthcare system has adapted seamlessly to a historic telehealthexpansion that inaugurates a new era in healthcare delivery.”
Finalizing Telehealth Expansion and ImprovingRural Health
Before the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE), only 15,000fee-for-service beneficiaries each week received a Medicare telemedicineservice. Since the beginning of the PHE, CMS has added 144 telehealth servicessuch as emergency department visits, initial inpatient and nursing facilityvisits, and discharge day management services, that are covered by Medicarethrough the end of the PHE. These services were added to allow for safe accessto important health care services during the PHE. As a result, preliminary datashow that between mid-March and mid-October 2020, over 24.5 million out of 63million beneficiaries and enrollees have received a Medicare telemedicineservice during the PHE.


The growth appears to be from 15000 to 875000 per week using a 28 week time frame

[James564]

What was the forecasted date on that article for it double in value?

[calledone]

What was the forecasted date on that article for it double in value?

Their target is 12 months

[pierre]

Jarden's 12-month target price is $1.40. The valuation was based on a 10-year discounted cash flow analysis. (They are estimating ~1m tests in the final year of the DCF forecast.)

Their analysts estimate the company will remain loss-making until March 2023 when it would potentially make a net profit of $17m from revenue of $57m. They estimate revenue of $900m in the year to March 2030.

Important to note that funds managed by Jarden subsidiary, Harbour Asset Management, hold 14.5% of PEB so there's a vested interest in this outcome.

Nice to see analysts taking an interest at last though.

And even if PEB gets only halfway up the hill towards $1.40 in the next 12 months there will be some happy holders - including moi.

Bonne chance to all holders.

DISCL: PEB is currently 17% of my portfolio - looks like it could get quite a bit higher!

[Getty]

Merci for posting Pierre.

At 75c the Mcap is $544M, so to wait 3 yrs to get to a miserable $17M profit on todays price, never mind double, doesn't look exciting.
Whats happened to fundamentals these days, have they gone mental?

2030, now thats tastier, but a long way away.

It's enough to weaken a bloke's bladder

[Greekwatchdog]

Merci Beaucoup Pierre, was the Jarden analysis based on Current Commercial Arrangements that PEB has signed thus far?

[pierre]

Merci for posting Pierre.

At 75c the Mcap is $544M, so to wait 3 yrs to get to a miserable $17M profit on todays price, never mind double, doesn't look exciting.
Whats happened to fundamentals these days, have they gone mental?

2030, now thats tastier, but a long way away.

It's enough to weaken a bloke's bladder

Haha. I hope my bladder stays in good condition and allows me to hold on till 2030! SP target is $1.40 next year - what will it be when the revenue hits the $900m mark?

[pierre]

Merci Beaucoup Pierre, was the Jarden analysis based on Current Commercial Arrangements that PEB has signed thus far?

I have no idea sorry - but assume Jarden are not privy to any more info than the rest of us (maybe a nudge and wink somewhere though?)

[Greekwatchdog]

Thanks Pierre, makes one wonder what we miss out on...

[Longhaul]

Haha. I hope my bladder stays in good condition and allows me to hold on till 2030! SP target is $1.40 next year - what will it be when the revenue hits the $900m mark?

I suspect PEB will be bought out long before then.

[pierre]

I suspect PEB will be bought out long before then.
I'm sure there will be offers at some stage - question is when and at what price. The big boys will drive the outcome so I hope they're not ready to sell the first time a couple of dollars are waved in their direction.

[Minerbarejet]

I suspect PEB will be bought out long before then.
Lets not forget that PEB has a lot of stuff in the pipeline and Otago University may have something to say about any takeovers or buying out.
To get 900 million is going to require several additional labs so I hope that has been included in any "estimates"

[sunnysleeper11]

Whats happened to fundamentals these days, have they gone mental?


Yes Getty, yes they have.

[drcjp]

Lets not forget that PEB has a lot of stuff in the pipeline and Otago University may have something to say about any takeovers or buying out.
To get 900 million is going to require several additional labs so I hope that has been included in any "estimates"

Otago has bugger all say anymore. They are a very minor shareholder.
As for biotech buy outs, a general rule of thumb is 4-5x gross turnover. That would be 4.5B by 2030 numbers...........LOL thats not going to happen.
I would anticipate somewhere around 500M for this asset which means PE need to be turning over 130-150M (150,000-160,000 tests p.a.).....within 2-3yrs to justify the patent runout time

[Balance]

I suspect PEB will be bought out long before then.

Tend to agree with you.

That’s the way of the world these days and not necessarily a bad thing.

[jonu]

Otago has bugger all say anymore. They are a very minor shareholder.
As for biotech buy outs, a general rule of thumb is 4-5x gross turnover. That would be 4.5B by 2030 numbers...........LOL thats not going to happen.
I would anticipate somewhere around 500M for this asset which means PE need to be turning over 130-150M (150,000-160,000 tests p.a.).....within 2-3yrs to justify the patent runout time

That's less than current M/cap

[drcjp]

That's less than current M/cap

Yup, so they better do more than 160,000 tests right?

[Getty]

Being touted by Jardens, the same crowd, along with the other 4 who picked ATM to be in the top5 performers for the year.

Be afraid, or very wary at least...

[Greekwatchdog]

What utter crap, nothing in common except Jarden and I would say that different analyst does PEB and ATM.

[Minerbarejet]

Otago has bugger all say anymore. They are a very minor shareholder.
As for biotech buy outs, a general rule of thumb is 4-5x gross turnover. That would be 4.5B by 2030 numbers...........LOL thats not going to happen.
I would anticipate somewhere around 500M for this asset which means PE need to be turning over 130-150M (150,000-160,000 tests p.a.).....within 2-3yrs to justify the patent runout time
An interested bystander has suggested that this may be helpful.

From the Company website:

Pacific Edge also has immediate and perpetual access to any cancer intellectual property emerging from the University of Otago’s Cancer Genetics Laboratory. This relationship has been in place from when Pacific Edge was formed in 2001. This represents a significant future asset.

[Getty]

What utter crap, nothing in common except Jarden and I would say that different analyst does PEB and ATM.
???, excuse me?

5 brokers who tipped ATM to be top 5 for 2020 were Jardens, Hobson, Craigs, Forbar, & HHG.

The point is they can be fallible.

[Greekwatchdog]

Yes like all of us. No one is walking on water. If you trust the Analysts then thats your problem. Besides ATM issues are External with the crap going on between Aust and China and Supply Issues caused by Melbourne lock down.

Back to PEB, go you good thing.

[drcjp]

An interested bystander has suggested that this may be helpful.

From the Company website:

Pacific Edge also has immediate and perpetual access to any cancer intellectual property emerging from the University of Otago’s Cancer Genetics Laboratory. This relationship has been in place from when Pacific Edge was formed in 2001. This represents a significant future asset.

Access is not ownership. There is a BIG difference.

[Zaphod]

Access is not ownership. There is a BIG difference.

From experience with other universities in NZ, access to IP can also be very costly.

[tomm]

Can some one get rid of the 915860 shares at $80 cents =))) . Then we are up to the moon ;)

[calledone]

Can some one get rid of the 915860 shares at $80 cents =))) . Then we are up to the moon ;)

Lol! that will most likely be wiped out by the end of the day.

[tomm]

Lol! that will most likely be wiped out by the end of the day.
If this happen, : ==========> "THE EAGLE HAS LANDED"
I REPEAT : "THE EAGLE HAS LANDED"


but not anytime soon :scared:

[calledone]

Interesting this is beginning to get some serious attention.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-03/new-zealand-s-best-stock-surges-542-with-at-home-cancer-kits?in_source=watchlist_news_1&sref=pSjiJ5YC

[Leftfield]

Interesting this is beginning to get some serious attention.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-03/new-zealand-s-best-stock-surges-542-with-at-home-cancer-kits?in_source=watchlist_news_1&sref=pSjiJ5YC

Good to read. Thanks for posting.
Happy that PEB is currently 12% of my portfolio and at today's SP I'm up at a tab over 55%. Onwards and upwards.

[whatsup]

Interesting this is beginning to get some serious attention.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-03/new-zealand-s-best-stock-surges-542-with-at-home-cancer-kits?in_source=watchlist_news_1&sref=pSjiJ5YC

Could be the reason to its ATH now @ .84 !

[Minerbarejet]

Could be the reason to its ATH now @ .84 !
Wake me when it gets to 1.84, thats around its previous high.

[Justin]

Wake me when it gets to 1.84, thats around its previous high.

What’s the previous high ‘s market cap?

[Minerbarejet]

What’s the previous high ‘s market cap?
no idea- there have been a couple of CR since then but the MC was good enough to get it into the top 50 NZX

[calledone]

Wake me when it gets to 1.84, thats around its previous high.

Might take a couple of years, but you never know with this one. As for current surge in price, apart from the analyst upgrade, i wonder if some positive news on the Singapore trial result is going to be released soon!

[Balance]

Might take a couple of years, but you never know with this one. As for current surge in price, apart from the analyst upgrade, i wonder if some positive news on the Singapore trial result is going to be released soon!

Forget about Singapore as a biggie. China beckons - watch the space!

[Minerbarejet]

Bit of FOMO going on.

The Chinese have more of a tendency towards gastric cancer I believe.
Also interesting to note that colorectal is ready to use

https://www.pacificedgedx.com/products/pipeline/

[DDog]

Up it goes again!