PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Beat the Bank]

Great video. Slight breath out. Large holding now due to 100.3% gain. Next week could be a big week.

[Harrie]

Some interesting facts here I wasn’t completely au fait with was the three tests, triage, detect and resolve and how they fitted together. This makes Cxbladder even more compelling with respect to lab throughput even though blood in the urine may signal urethra or bladder cancer in only 5% of patients presenting with this symptom. Moreover the triage test is super compelling based simply on that fact alone c/f more invasive proceedures.
It’s getting harder to dispute the fact, on that info alone, that a Cxbladder test should be the gold standard world wide, going forward
Things are hotting up. As I keep saying… it’s only a matter of time.

[LoungeLizzard]

In this morning and confirmed by an outside source with audio

Cxbladder tests identify high-impact and low-impact tumors (urologytimes.com) (https://www.urologytimes.com/view/cxbladder-tests-identify-high-impact-and-low-impact-tumors)

Jay Raman has been for CxBladder for several years and appears in the author section on about 2 or 3 peer reviewed papers. He mentions the 3 CxBladder cancer tests for the diagnosis on haematuria. CxBladder Triage which if positive leads to CxBladder Detect which leads to CxBladder Resolve. He outlines that these are very accurate tests.

The plot thickens :)
Really useful post, thanks. If, as reported, PEB are moving into other types of cancer bio-marking, and they can convince the insto's to get on board, then the future could be very bright indeed. I like these low cap companies with high potential - doesn't always come off, but when it does it is very satisfying (and rewarding). Investing in A2 when they first listed was life changing. Maybe lightning might strike twice with PEB:D

[Harrie]

I hope so LL as I was into a2 at 52c. To be fair though nobody anticipated the baby formula growth in China at the time. A bit of good luck there. Here we have definitive proof and a procedure which is gaining traction with more and more confirmation. It could go exponential.

[Minerbarejet]

Some interesting facts here I wasn’t completely au fait with was the three tests, triage, detect and resolve and how they fitted together. This makes Cxbladder even more compelling with respect to lab throughput even though blood in the urine may signal urethra or bladder cancer in only 5% of patients presenting with this symptom. Moreover the triage test is super compelling based simply on that fact alone c/f more invasive proceedures.
It’s getting harder to dispute the fact, on that info alone, that a Cxbladder test should be the gold standard world wide, going forward
Things are hotting up. As I keep saying… it’s only a matter of time.
As with all good things, they take time, and there has certainly been some time involved with cxBladder.

The dissonance worldwide will take some beating even if they do succeed in the US.

I can see a lot of further studies being done by other countries in disbelief that NZ, (where is that?), could come up with something as good as these tests and no doubt Aussie will try to claim it for themselves even if they seem to be a bit late to the party so far.

In the likely arrival of a dividend cheque somewhere in the future I will probably move on from this after, currently, 8 years.

No hurry, eh, bro. :)

[Harrie]

Nah divvies a wee way off yet, still looking at it as a growth stock

[LoungeLizzard]

I hope so LL as I was into a2 at 52c. To be fair though nobody anticipated the baby formula growth in China at the time. A bit of good luck there. Here we have definitive proof and a procedure which is gaining traction with more and more confirmation. It could go exponential.
Quite right. You need a bit of good fortune along with the 4P's - product, potential, plan and people. The Aussie listing will be a bit of a litmus test. One way or another, it's going to be an interesting ride.

[psychic]

The AUA has just completed a review of its bladder cancer guidelines. Acknowledged that while there had been an uptake in clinical use of Cxbladder there was still insufficient high quality evidence to recommend use over cystoscopy.


https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/aua-2021-program/aua-2021-bladder-cancer/131965-aua-2021-aua-guideline-amendment-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer.html

[LoungeLizzard]

The AUA has just completed a review of its bladder cancer guidelines. Acknowledged that while there had been an uptake in clinical use of Cxbladder there was still insufficient high quality evidence to recommend use over cystoscopy.


https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/aua-2021-program/aua-2021-bladder-cancer/131965-aua-2021-aua-guideline-amendment-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer.html

CXBladder isn't positioning itself as a replacement for cystoscopy.

[850man]

The AUA has just completed a review of its bladder cancer guidelines. Acknowledged that while there had been an uptake in clinical use of Cxbladder there was still insufficient high quality evidence to recommend use over cystoscopy.


https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/aua-2021-program/aua-2021-bladder-cancer/131965-aua-2021-aua-guideline-amendment-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer.html

That would have been a major and entirely unexpected step forward if the AUA were to have reccommended CXBladder over Cystoscopy right now. The hurdle is "currently a lack of high quality evidence" is a very acceptable position and that evidence is mounting day by day. I think their acknowledgement of CX's increased uptake and no suggestion this is unacceptable is good news for PEB. The medical world moves ahead slowly and cautiously.

[jridler]

The AUA has just completed a review of its bladder cancer guidelines. Acknowledged that while there had been an uptake in clinical use of Cxbladder there was still insufficient high quality evidence to recommend use over cystoscopy.


https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/aua-2021-program/aua-2021-bladder-cancer/131965-aua-2021-aua-guideline-amendment-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer.html

Thanks for sharing, psychic. I wonder what level of high quality evidence the AUA would require to review this position. Nonetheless, it seems that the snowball is gathering mass...

Adding relevant quote below for the sake of others:

"For urinary biomarkers, Statement 9 states – in surveillance of NMIBC, a clinician should not use urinary biomarkers in place of cystoscopic evaluation (Strong Recommendation; Evidence Strength: Grade B). Dr. McKiernan notes that this statement has not changed, but emphasized that the panel acknowledges the uptake of Cxbladder in clinical practice. Although several studies have suggested that Cxbladder may replace cystoscopy there is currently a lack of high quality evidence to make this recommendation"

[Harrie]

Yeah thats right psychic, the same could have been said about a2 milk when scientists were saying there was no evidence to support the proposition that there was any difference in a2 milk compared with standard a2/a1 milk proteins. I'm not even sure if they have ever proved it, but what we do know is that only cows milk produce a1/a2 milk protein, and all other animals including humans only the a2 milk protein. This case is different however because there is scientific evidence available to prove the efficacy of Cxbladder. It does not make sense to support the use of a cystoscopy in all cases when someone presents with blood in the urine when only 5% have actual bladder or urethral cancer. With a well documented high 90's NPV why would you want to have a cystoscopy? There is obviously vested interests at play here. Notice the rhetoric changing though...now its "high quality" evidence. next review will be CXbladder incorrectly missed one without saying how many were missed with a cystoscopy, or some other BS reason to prevent it becoming mainstream. That might work in the short term.

[Minerbarejet]

And right down the bottom of that article is this:

The committee identified several areas of research to improve care:

Further defining the role of biomarkers

[whatsup]

Yeah thats right psychic, the same could have been said about a2 milk when scientists were saying there was no evidence to support the proposition that there was any difference in a2 milk compared with standard a2/a1 milk proteins. I'm not even sure if they have ever proved it, but what we do know is that only cows milk produce a1/a2 milk protein, and all other animals including humans only the a2 milk protein. This case is different however because there is scientific evidence available to prove the efficacy of Cxbladder. It does not make sense to support the use of a cystoscopy in all cases when someone presents with blood in the urine when only 5% have actual bladder or urethral cancer. With a well documented high 90's NPV why would you want to have a cystoscopy? There is obviously vested interests at play here. Notice the rhetoric changing though...now its "high quality" evidence. next review will be CXbladder incorrectly missed one without saying how many were missed with a cystoscopy, or some other BS reason to prevent it becoming mainstream. That might work in the short term.

Harrie, Being human, "if " I found blood in my urine I would want ALL aspects/causes of it investigated CXbladder et al no cost is too high when it comes to ones health imo.

[Maxtrade]

Does anyone know if there is any reason why such a drop from 1.47 close to todays opening? Any news behind this?

[calledone]

Does anyone know if there is any reason why such a drop from 1.47 close to todays opening? Any news behind this?

Macroeconomics at play most likely.

[pierre]

Does anyone know if there is any reason why such a drop from 1.47 close to todays opening? Any news behind this?

There is red ink everywhere on the NZX today - not just for PEB. Here's the catalyst:

Stock market today: S&P 500 falls 1.7% for its worst day since May, Dow sheds 600 points (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html)

[Harrie]

I’m not saying that you shouldn’t explore all options but if presented with a negative Cxbladder test knowing that it had a high 90’s NPV I think I would just keep monitoring. No point in risking an unnecessary health complication when there is only a small chance that it maybe something more sinister. That is the beauty of Cxbladder in that you can just keep monitoring it. More important is as long as the risks of a cystoscopy are well explained and the chances of a false NPV are explained it’s your choice.

[MAWK]

This is my first post so hopefully my question is not too silly. There was a PEB capital change notice on 17/9/21 saying I think a total of 123,086 ordinary shares were issued for $1.40 per share as non-cash consideration, being inrecognition of performance in lieu of bonus. Is this a good sign that management expect the share price to continue to increase or does this happen all the time.

[Maxtrade]

Has an exact date been confirmed when PEB will open on ASX?

[LoungeLizzard]

It has a proposed listing date of 24 September, but I don't think the ASX has confirmed that date as yet. There have been no official announcements on NZX so I assume that they haven't as yet got all their ducks in a row? Be nice for the company to let investors know what is happening, other than it is "going well."

[pierre]

It has a proposed listing date of 24 September, but I don't think the ASX has confirmed that date as yet. There have been no official announcements on NZX so I assume that they haven't as yet got all their ducks in a row? Be nice for the company to let investors know what is happening, other than it is "going well."


The listing date was originally 23 September, then the 24th - now it's Monday 27th. They must need a bit more time to round up that $70 mill. ;)

Upcoming floats and listings (asx.com.au) (https://www2.asx.com.au/listings/upcoming-floats-and-listings)

PS. Despite all the red ink on the market today PEB is up 1c to 148 as I write. Not bad eh?

[Minerbarejet]

The listing date was originally 23 September, then the 24th - now it's Monday 27th. They must need a bit more time to round up that $70 mill. ;)

Upcoming floats and listings (asx.com.au) (https://www2.asx.com.au/listings/upcoming-floats-and-listings)

PS. Despite all the red ink on the market today PEB is up 1c to 148 as I write. Not bad eh?

Thanks for the Pierre review, well done. :)

[LoungeLizzard]

The listing date was originally 23 September, then the 24th - now it's Monday 27th. They must need a bit more time to round up that $70 mill. ;)

Upcoming floats and listings (asx.com.au) (https://www2.asx.com.au/listings/upcoming-floats-and-listings)

PS. Despite all the red ink on the market today PEB is up 1c to 148 as I write. Not bad eh?

Thanks for that. Agreed - SP has recovered well and hopefully the OZ listing will give things a further push.

[DonkeyKong]

I’m a beginner and starting to look at shares outside of ETFs.

I've been looking at Pacific Edge and from what I've read so far they seem pretty awesome, albeit without having much medical or scientific knowledge myself.
- urine tests with a high negative predictive value for bladder cancers
- potentially reducing the need for invasive procedures for patients and the load on medical infrastructure
- likely a high barrier of entry for possible alternatives, e.g. years of clinical studies
- limited competition? I haven’t searched much on that
- a potential market of $3.5 billion in the US and possible growth into other markets
- existing facilities to handle significant growth, up to processing 260k tests per year
- starting to pick up momentum in potential usage
- the upcoming ASX listing
- potentially going to have other products being commercialised e.g. cxcolorectal
- FY21 operating revenue increasing at a much higher % than operating expenses (I might be reading to much into that)

Sounds awesome.

However,
- the current share price of $1.47
- market capitalisation of $1.072 billion
- operating revenue of $7.7 million for FY21
- a lot of potentially

It makes me wonder how much of the potential growth is already priced in to the share price. As a beginner, based on gut feel more than anything else, I would guess a lot. So I’m wondering if and how people are modelling how much potential growth is already factored into the share price. I appreciate it is unlikely to be a simple answer and gradually I am going to try learn about techniques for this.

[barney]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-stands-asx-clarification

[DonkeyKong]

I’m a beginner and starting to look at shares outside of ETFs.

I've been looking at Pacific Edge and from what I've read so far they seem pretty awesome, albeit without having much medical or scientific knowledge myself.
- urine tests with a high negative predictive value for bladder cancers
- potentially reducing the need for invasive procedures for patients and the load on medical infrastructure
- likely a high barrier of entry for possible alternatives, e.g. years of clinical studies
- limited competition? I haven’t searched much on that
- a potential market of $3.5 billion in the US and possible growth into other markets
- existing facilities to handle significant growth, up to processing 260k tests per year
- starting to pick up momentum in potential usage
- the upcoming ASX listing
- potentially going to have other products being commercialised e.g. cxcolorectal
- FY21 operating revenue increasing at a much higher % than operating expenses (I might be reading to much into that)

Sounds awesome.

However,
- the current share price of $1.47
- market capitalisation of $1.072 billion
- operating revenue of $7.7 million for FY21
- a lot of potentially

It makes me wonder how much of the potential growth is already priced in to the share price. As a beginner, based on gut feel more than anything else, I would guess a lot. So I’m wondering if and how people are modelling how much potential growth is already factored into the share price. I appreciate it is unlikely to be a simple answer and gradually I am going to try learn about techniques for this.

Given the way moderation and new message notifications for a thread work. Just giving this message a bump so it doesn’t get missed. :)

[kiora]

Well considered content DK.
For all those reasons investors should consider this share to be in the high risk category.
One to either make some money OR loose a lot
Are you/do you want to be that sort of investor?

Or be an investor in something that is more a sure thing?

More often than not sentiment isn't a good thing

[Minerbarejet]

I’m a beginner and starting to look at shares outside of ETFs.

I've been looking at Pacific Edge and from what I've read so far they seem pretty awesome, albeit without having much medical or scientific knowledge myself.
- urine tests with a high negative predictive value for bladder cancers
- potentially reducing the need for invasive procedures for patients and the load on medical infrastructure
- likely a high barrier of entry for possible alternatives, e.g. years of clinical studies
- limited competition? I haven’t searched much on that
- a potential market of $3.5 billion in the US and possible growth into other markets
- existing facilities to handle significant growth, up to processing 260k tests per year
- starting to pick up momentum in potential usage
- the upcoming ASX listing
- potentially going to have other products being commercialised e.g. cxcolorectal
- FY21 operating revenue increasing at a much higher % than operating expenses (I might be reading to much into that)

Sounds awesome.

However,
- the current share price of $1.47
- market capitalisation of $1.072 billion
- operating revenue of $7.7 million for FY21
- a lot of potentially

It makes me wonder how much of the potential growth is already priced in to the share price. As a beginner, based on gut feel more than anything else, I would guess a lot. So I’m wondering if and how people are modelling how much potential growth is already factored into the share price. I appreciate it is unlikely to be a simple answer and gradually I am going to try learn about techniques for this.

Start with this perhaps.
Consider as a guide to Kaisers involvement that they have about 1/27th of the population on their books.
Presentations of 7 million annually countrywide in the States for haematuria alone would leave Kaiser with roughly 1/27th of 7 million Triage evaluations which is 259,000 tests at roughly 1000NZD each.

This amounts to the entire capacity of the US operation at Hershey never mind the involvement for Monitor which for Kaiser would be 1/27th of 800,000 (around 30,000) patients requiring monitoring two or three times a year for 5 years. An extra 60-90,000 tests PA.
The base figures are on the FY results presentation.

https://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/Investor-Files/PEB-FY21-Audited-Results-CEO-Presentation.pdf

Not intending to suggest that all would be forthcoming but it at least gives you some idea of the scale of it all when we only consider 1/27th of the population which is Kaisers share.

[Ggcc]

And we have the official capital raise

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379647

[sb9]

And we have the official capital raise

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379647

Probably one of the worst kept secrets...

[trader_jackson]

Really deceiving that they categorically denied just a few weeks ago that they were raising capital...

[Brain]

The Capital Raising Presentation document is interesting. In particular that for cystoscopy (page 30) 71% Sensitivity and Specificity 65% compared to the CX Bladder tests which generally rate above 90% for Sensitivity and Specificity.

On that basis it would be hard for the AUA to continue with their claim that Cystoscopy is the gold standard. Maybe I am missing something here.

[Balance]

And we have the official capital raise

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379647

Interesting - not underwritten & no price set.

Says to me that they had no take from the institutions at the $1.20 underwritten price inadvertently released to the market 2 weeks ago.

And us retail shareholders are given the opportunity to participate in $20m worth of the capital raising!

[whatsup]

Now we know why the price has been firming over the last week $1.39 -$1.49, does not happen in a U S sell off over the same time period !!

[Balance]

Now we know why the price has been firming over the last week $1.39 -$1.49, does not happen in a U S sell off over the same time period !!

Yup - someone has been pushing it up to facilitate the CR.

I am picking $1.00 as the placement price. What about others?

[Arbroath]

Yup - someone has been pushing it up to facilitate the CR.

I am picking $1.00 as the placement price. What about others?

My guess $1.25

[kiora]

"Some of those stocks are priced to perfection, whether it be SAAS companies or high-quality healthcare, which are undoubtedly good companies. I just don't think they offer very attractive returns over the medium term."
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/perfection-doesn-t-always-make-for-good-investments

[whatsup]

My guess $1.25

Yep, $50 K is a decent amount of moula for retail investors ( sharies included ) !!

[Balance]

My guess $1.25

Don’t think so as they could not get the CR away 2 weeks ago at $1.20.

[iamaskier]

Interesting - not underwritten & no price set.

Says to me that they had no take from the institutions at the $1.20 underwritten price inadvertently released to the market 2 weeks ago.

And us retail shareholders are given the opportunity to participate in $20m worth of the capital raising!

Admittedly this is at the edge of my understanding but wouldn't an alternative read be that they're confident and they've decided they can do better than $1.20? The plan is still for instos to make up the bulk of the raise .

[calledone]

Yup - someone has been pushing it up to facilitate the CR.

I am picking $1.00 as the placement price. What about others?

I'm thinking btw $1.06 and $1.2 (maybe $1.15).

[Maxtrade]

Yup - someone has been pushing it up to facilitate the CR.

I am picking $1.00 as the placement price. What about others?

If share placement is going to be that low, shouldnt we see a large sell off right now and investors looking to rebuy as SP drops lower towards the SPP. There doesn't seem to be a large sell volume pending.

Thoughts?

[pierre]

Don’t think so as they could not get the CR away 2 weeks ago at $1.20.

PEB is more optimistic overall this time though. They are aiming to raise a total of $80 million - not the $70m on the "incorrect" document published by the ASX.

[Balance]

If share placement is going to be that low, shouldnt we see a large sell off right now and investors looking to rebuy as SP drops lower towards the SPP. There doesn't seem to be a large sell volume pending.

Thoughts?

Trading halt.

Whatever is there will change dramatically depending on the price set by the CR.

[Balance]

PEB is more optimistic overall this time though. They are aiming to raise a total of $80 million - not the $70m on the "incorrect" document published by the ASX.


Fair comment.

[Maxtrade]

Has it been stated how long the trading halt will be for? Or when the CR price will be announced?

[t.rexjr]

Start with this perhaps.
Consider as a guide to Kaisers involvement that they have about 1/27th of the population on their books.
Presentations of 7 million annually countrywide in the States for haematuria alone would leave Kaiser with roughly 1/27th of 7 million Triage evaluations which is 259,000 tests at roughly 1000NZD each.

This amounts to the entire capacity of the US operation at Hershey never mind the involvement for Monitor which for Kaiser would be 1/27th of 800,000 (around 30,000) patients requiring monitoring two or three times a year for 5 years. An extra 60-90,000 tests PA.
The base figures are on the FY results presentation.

https://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/Investor-Files/PEB-FY21-Audited-Results-CEO-Presentation.pdf

Not intending to suggest that all would be forthcoming but it at least gives you some idea of the scale of it all when we only consider 1/27th of the population which is Kaisers share.

The trouble with that example is that it highlights that the current throughput is nothing to shout about. If it were even at a fraction of capacity one would think there would be no need for a raise. They're expecting to burn some cash...

[Grimy]

Looks like it is $1.35

[whatsup]

The trouble with that example is that it highlights that the current throughput is nothing to shout about. If it were even at a fraction of capacity one would think there would be no need for a raise. They're expecting to burn some cash...

Yes but look at the amount of cash burn Xero expended before it was cash flow positive all beit from a lower base !

[Maxtrade]

Looks like it is $1.35

Where have you been able to confirm this?

The announcement only noted the following...
Shares will be offered at the lower of the price paid for shares under the placement and the volume weighted average
price of Pacific Edge's shares on the NZX over the 5-day trading period before the closing date of the retail offer (being 13 October 2021, unless extended)

[percy]

Where have you been able to confirm this?

The announcement only noted the following...
Shares will be offered at the lower of the price paid for shares under the placement and the volume weighted average
price of Pacific Edge's shares on the NZX over the 5-day trading period before the closing date of the retail offer (being 13 October 2021, unless extended)


From a Chris Lee & Partners email this morning;
Pacific Edge (PEB) has announced today that it intends to raise approximately $80m via a share placement at a discounted price of $1.35. This represents a 9% discount to the last closing price.

We anticipate that there will be scaling. Pacific Edge will proritise existing shareholders with more than 450,000 shares.

[blu3]

Where have you been able to confirm this?

It's listed on Jarden Direct's website, see attached screenshot.

Although I'm not too sure to understand what the following sentence is supposted to mean: “there is a price range of $1.25, $1.30 and $1.35 on the issue. However we will only be accepting bids at the top price of $1.35 (the issue price may be lower).”

12987

[Maxtrade]

The more experienced investor here might be able to help explain why this is included and of importance?

This announcement has been prepared for publication in New Zealand and may
not be released to US wire services or distributed in the United States. This
announcement does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an
offer to buy, securities in the United States or any other jurisdiction. Any
securities described in this announcement have not been, and will not be,
registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and may not be offered or sold
in the United States except in transactions exempt from, or not subject to,
the registration of the US Securities Act and applicable US state securities
laws. Shares under the Retail Offer will not be offered or sold to persons
resident in the United States.

[Balance]

The more experienced investor here might be able to help explain why this is included and of importance?

This announcement has been prepared for publication in New Zealand and may
not be released to US wire services or distributed in the United States. This
announcement does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an
offer to buy, securities in the United States or any other jurisdiction. Any
securities described in this announcement have not been, and will not be,
registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and may not be offered or sold
in the United States except in transactions exempt from, or not subject to,
the registration of the US Securities Act and applicable US state securities
laws. Shares under the Retail Offer will not be offered or sold to persons
resident in the United States.

Standard with all CR which are not registered in the US.

[baaantom]

So PEB including this CR has raised approx $270m compared to Xero's approx $680m? Is that correct?

[Balance]

It's listed on Jarden Direct's website, see attached screenshot.

Although I'm not too sure to understand what the following sentence is supposted to mean: “there is a price range of $1.25, $1.30 and $1.35 on the issue. However we will only be accepting bids at the top price of $1.35 (the issue price may be lower).”

12987

Excellent outcome if they place the shares at $1.35.

[MarineSalvage]

Excellent outcome if they place the shares at $1.35.
Just got the Sharesies offer! that was fast

[Beat the Bank]

Interesting the different brokerage. No charge from Jardens or Sharsies but there is from Chris Lee.

Please note that brokerage will be charged. Chris Lee
You won’t be charged the Sharesies transaction fee.
No brokerage is payable by the client. Jardens

I opened a Sharsies account due to high fees from Chris Lee on only partial acceptance of previous offers.

I have a stack of these so hope to get mine from the retail offer, I haven't read it yet. Is this the right thing to do? Or should we go for both? Thanks in advance.

[Azza]

Having a quick skim over it all, looks like Sharsies will allow for both the placement and the retail. Think I'll split between the both of them to see how the ASX open pans out.

[pierre]

Having a quick skim over it all, looks like Sharsies will allow for both the placement and the retail. Think I'll split between the both of them to see how the ASX open pans out.

The retail offer opens on September 28 and closes October 13 so there's plenty of time to monitor the SP before deciding what to do.

[Maxtrade]

I wonder how many of us read the writing on the wall and sold off a portion of our PEB holdings when the leaked CR was announced. Would have made most sense to sell off the majority @ 1.45+ and buy back in on the lower CR @1.35 today.

Surprised we didn't see more of a sell off prior to ASX listing knowing the CR was likely in the works.

Bit disappointing how PEB management played dumb and implied they weren't doing a CR, then less than a week later sure enough there it is. Those more experienced likely knew it was coming anyway, sold off prior and are bidding today for the CR at the lower rate $1.35 (Jarden).

Those that bid through other brokers lower ($1.25, $1.30) will likely miss out as it is very likely will be massively oversubscribed. Was just speaking with couple of brokers who have already indicated demand is already showing high levels at $1.35.

Which is good for existing shareholders that didn't sell prior to today, as if oversubscribed at $1.35 then SP may likely bounce back up to 1.5-1.6 very quickly to follow with ASX volumes.

Not to mention the positivities that come with why and what PEB is doing with this CR. All continued good news and growth looking more and more positive.

[Beat the Bank]

From Sharechat- the retail offer allows

up to NZ$50,000 of new shares under the Retail Offer. Shares will be offered at the lower of the price paid for shares under the placement and the volume weighted average price of Pacific Edge's shares on the NZX over the 5-day trading period before the closing date of the retail offer (being 13 October 2021,

So the retail offer gives extra security to existing shareholders if the price drops below the offer price. And up to $50k can be applied for but in my experience to date, scaling pulls that way back and ties your money up for a while.

[pierre]

I wonder how many of us read the writing on the wall and sold off a portion of our PEB holdings when the leaked CR was announced. Would have made most sense to sell off the majority @ 1.45+ and buy back in on the lower CR @1.35 today.

Scaling is very likely to occur so if you sold most of your shares prior to the announcement the chance of topping up at the lower price would have been minimal. We will have to wait and see what the Offer price is and how the market responds before knowing what is the best strategy.

I think this CR announcement is great news and is a giant leap into a hugely positive future for the company. I have substantial holdings of PEB held in two portfolios and will be applying for the maximum allocation in each of them.

[iamaskier]

I wonder how many of us read the writing on the wall and sold off a portion of our PEB holdings when the leaked CR was announced. Would have made most sense to sell off the majority @ 1.45+ and buy back in on the lower CR @1.35 today.



It's scaled though right, so yea you'd get an (unknown) portion back at an assumed cheaper price (unknown at the time) but you'd have to buy the rest back at a market price (unknown) if you wanted to get to level you held. I'm sure people have but it doesn't seem straight forward at all...

[Maxtrade]

Thanks Pierre,

Would it be wiser to buy more shares with a bid during todays trading halt in the capital raise share placement to secure more holdings. Or to wait and buy them through the retail offer, (where it would then be the lower of either the placement price allocation (likely to be $1.35) or the VWAP 5 day prior share price).

Are there any disadvantages to waiting to buy them through the retail offer (other than being limited to $50,000 max buy).

If waited to buy through the share offer is the risk that the retail offer could be so over subscribed that the percentage of shares you would receive from your offer could be greatly less?

Trying to decide weather better to just buy more shares today during the share placement through brokers. Or to wait and make an offer during the retail offer period.

Those with more experience with Cap Raises might be able to please help let us know a bit more on the pro's and con's of each and what's the better approach to increase PEB shares in our portfolios while obviously trying to take advantage of securing them at the best price.

thanks and much appreciated

[Minerbarejet]

There is a keen fan in the PEB depth.:)

Bid 5000@1.80

Disc: Not me

[LoungeLizzard]

Yeah, I didn't consider selling down after the CR gaff, because as Pierre mentioned scaling is more than often the case.

I'm thinking that the market is going to react well to the news and I don't see the price slipping back and creating a buying opportunity. More likely that SP will go up as new investors are drawn in. So unless you don't have much of a holding and won't get much through the scaled retail placement (or you want to spend more than the 50k limit) it seems wiser to me to buy them through the placement, although it may well be oversubscribed. Thoughts?

[pierre]

Hi Maxtrade

Well, the answer is.. I don't know.

Jarden are only accepting bids in the placement at $1.35 - though the actual issue price may be lower. It all depends on demand. You wont know the actual issue price or the quantity you receive until the placement is finalised.

The placement price then sets the benchmark for the retail offer:

"..up to NZ$50,000 of new shares under the Retail Offer. Shares will be offered at the lower of the price paid for shares under the placement and the volume weighted average price of Pacific Edge's shares on the NZX over the 5-day trading period before the closing date of the retail offer (being 13 October 2021."

So, if the market price drops below the placement price you will buy cheaper in the retail offer - but once again face the risk of scaling. You also need to remember that the ASX listing might create additional demand for PEB and possibly elevate the SP.

There is no certain answer so I am going to hedge my bets by participating in both offers.- but this is not advice that you should do the same.

[Cyclical]

I wonder how many of us read the writing on the wall and sold off a portion of our PEB holdings when the leaked CR was announced. Would have made most sense to sell off the majority @ 1.45+ and buy back in on the lower CR @1.35 today.

One thing to be mindful of is the tax implications of course... Depending on your situation, let's say those ones you sold at 1.45 you were lucky enough to buy earlier this year at $1 and your marginal tax rate is 33%, well Cindy and Grant would like to take about 15 cents off you for each of those you sold, so your perceived 10c ps profit on your little trade is really a 5c ps loss. I can't speak for anyone else, but if I hadn't sold anything since March last year, rather than mucking about chasing little ups and downs here and there, I'd be a lot better off than I am right now, and that's before even taking tax into consideration ;-)

[whatsup]

There is a keen fan in the PEB depth.:)

Bid 5000@1.80

Disc: Not me

M---b---, I must admit that I have never seen this before, being able to log a buying intent after a SPP has been announced , or am I reading this wrong.

[Minerbarejet]

M---b---, I must admit that I have never seen this before, being able to log a buying intent after a SPP has been announced , or am I reading this wrong.
Me neither, must have been a late arrival still in the works.

[LoungeLizzard]

NZX really shouldn't allow trades to be signalled even though trading has halted. It isn't unusual - recently the same was happening when SKT trading was halted whilst shares were being consolidated. In that case there were over-bids or and under-sells that were cancelled prior to trading commencing. I have no doubt some players try to influence trading by placing bids that they have no intention to settle. A halt to trading should mean exactly that, and I fully expect those high bids and low sells to magically dissappear prior to trading commencing.

[barney]

Excellent outcome if they place the shares at $1.35.

I agree. $1.35 would be very good. If the details in the initial ASX announcement were correct, $70m at 1.20 per share, then maybe the board found the demand was stronger than what they might have thought , hence they didn't sign it off. $80m at $1.35 looks far better.

The NBR today reported on todays conference call. The board would likely make an announcement regarding a new CEO in the next month. Regarding the institutional placement they said that "obviously there's very strong demand. We're hopeful of a very good outcome for our existing shareholders."

[winner69]

Nz Regco having a look at PEBs disclosures

Might get a little telling off but nothing much else

[nztx]

I agree. $1.35 would be very good. If the details in the initial ASX announcement were correct, $70m at 1.20 per share, then maybe the board found the demand was stronger than what they might have thought , hence they didn't sign it off. $80m at $1.35 looks far better.

The NBR today reported on todays conference call. The board would likely make an announcement regarding a new CEO in the next month. Regarding the institutional placement they said that "obviously there's very strong demand. We're hopeful of a very good outcome for our existing shareholders."

The A Bank jumping in earlier may be a catalyst for further insto's wanting a slice of the pie ;)

they aren't on board for nothing :)

Dual listing may be the cream on top for those already in on the party .. ;)

[DonkeyKong]

Well considered content DK.
For all those reasons investors should consider this share to be in the high risk category.
One to either make some money OR loose a lot
Are you/do you want to be that sort of investor?

Or be an investor in something that is more a sure thing?

More often than not sentiment isn't a good thing

Fair call out that this share could be in the high risk category. Do you have any recommendations on which shares to start looking into that you think are a more sure thing?

[DonkeyKong]

The trouble with that example is that it highlights that the current throughput is nothing to shout about. If it were even at a fraction of capacity one would think there would be no need for a raise. They're expecting to burn some cash...

Cheers minerbarejet that’s a great post with good information for me to dig into.

Interesting thoughts t.rexjr. I saw in today’s presentation slides that their Q1 FY22 their total laboratory throughput grew 9% on the previous quarter, Q4 FY21. Without knowing at all whether this is a fair assumption or not. If one assumed they have 9% growth quarter on quarter this year. That could put their throughput at 1.09^4 times the size of Q4 FY21 for the year. So using the numbers I could find quickly:
- 15814 total throughput for FY21
- Q1FY22 up 35% on FY21 quarterly average

That would put FY22 throughput at 15814/4*1.35+15814*3/4*1.35*1.09^3 = 26073 rounded up. So 64.87% increase or 10529 increase in absolute terms.

I’m not sure what I think about that. And I do wonder if this is the type of thing that could have snowballing growth which could make the assumption unfair. Anyways, it has given me some interesting stuff to dig into and will be interesting to see how it plays out for PEB.

[Minerbarejet]

Another one on the plus side.

It appears that NZ is going to have a consolidation of Health Boards which will have Waikato and Southland joining the PEB customer base.

I think it is about time that Oz took some notice of what's going on over here but I suppose they will try and do a Phar Lap with it and claim it was all their own work. :)

Maybe they bundled into it bigtime in the CR.

[davflaws]

Fair call out that this share could be in the high risk category. Do you have any recommendations on which shares to start looking into that you think are a more sure thing?

The bulk of my $ (75%) is now in OCA and HGH and SKL. I regard the other 25% as "punts" in ATM, BLT, PX1, PEB, and PAZ. In relation to the "punts", in each case I took a very small stake to keep me interested, and tried to climb aboard as the train started to move.

As Winner has pointed out - every train wreck starts that way, but I have also scored a (small) heap of Crunchie Bars!

[kiora]

Fair call out that this share could be in the high risk category. Do you have any recommendations on which shares to start looking into that you think are a more sure thing?

I have posted something on investment strategies that may be of interest

[whatsup]

Retail placement increased to $80 mil because of very strong demand, now Im picking the SPP will be at $1.35 because of that strong demand.

[baaantom]

Wow that is very good news.

[McPussPuss]

Imagine just a few weeks ago it was being prepared at $1.20. What a great vote of confidence in the story and now a decent floor in the price.

[pierre]

Fabulous news. A new CEO starting soon with what will be a $100m war chest to get out there and make this business New Zealand's next XERO - though hopefully it will be profitable a bit faster.

Great days ahead for PEB and its supporters.

Did you bid for any Pyschic? Surely you will have seen this result coming? :)

[Minerbarejet]

Aussie open might be interesting too. Gates are open. Handbrake off. :)

We don't have much Aussie retail on board yet I wouldn't think.

We have the instos into it and unless the retail punters over there have some PEB already they wont be eligible for the retail offering.

Hitting the press over there with an 80m placement and some full sized analyst coverage might activate a few buy buttons.

[LoungeLizzard]

SP ramping up - $1.53 on early trading. The market likes what it is hearing obviously and can't wait for the trading to commence on the Aus exchange on Monday!

[thegreatestben]

Will be interesting to see how the retail allocation goes.

[McPussPuss]

Jarden advises that no allocation was apportioned to holders with less than 450,000 shares due to the high demand.

[Minerbarejet]

Jarden advises that no allocation was apportioned to holders with less than 450,000 shares due to the high demand.
Does this mean that those institutions under 450,000 holding will be looking at getting their retail offering entitlement

(likely to be scaled back immensely)and having to go on market to avoid dilution?:)

[pierre]

Does this mean that those institutions under 450,000 holding will be looking at getting their retail offering entitlement

(likely to be scaled back immensely)and having to go on market to avoid dilution?:)

Highly likely Miner - though PEB will probably accept oversubscription in the retail offer too. Pretty crazy price action on the market this morning - up 10c as i write. Hope those buyers don't think they will be eligible to participate in the retail plan - that train has already left the station.

[winner69]

Dave the master of getting capital .... Dave does it again

Must be a few hundred million he's got into the collection box over the years

PEB needs to keep Dave on to drive future cap raisings

[Maxtrade]

Jarden advises that no allocation was apportioned to holders with less than 450,000 shares due to the high demand.

So that means will have to bid into the retail offer and be prepared for heavy scaling

[Beat the Bank]

The Placement was very well supported, attracting bids well in excess of the
up-sized NZ$80 million
Chairman of Pacific Edge, Chris Gallaher, said: "We are very pleased with the
demand shown for the Placement which we see as a strong endorsement of our
strategy and growth plans. We are very pleased with the strong support we
received from our long-term institutional investors and are delighted to
welcome several high value global growth funds to the register. The funds
raised will enable us to accelerate the growing out of our business and
realising Pacific Edge's potential.

So demand well in excess of the offer size is great news. A full war chest to go out there and sell the story. New big institutional shareholders also good news. The retail offer will very likely be fully subscribed and massively scaled back.

[McPussPuss]

Yea, at this stage freeing up cash to apply for the full amount is a no-brainer for me.

[pierre]

Nz Regco having a look at PEBs disclosures

Might get a little telling off but nothing much else

At least they will be able to pay the fine - if there is one! ;)

[Minerbarejet]

Dave the master of getting capital .... Dave does it again

Must be a few hundred million he's got into the collection box over the years

PEB needs to keep Dave on to drive future cap raisings

Exciting isnt it. :)

[Greekwatchdog]

Wow what a reaction to a CR. Now all they have to di is execute. Can it be that easy from this point. Congrats to all holders..

[Minerbarejet]

Wonder what would happen if the "backpay" suddenly showed up.:)

[kiora]

Exciting isnt it. :)

Really only if that is its only Raison d'être ?

[Minerbarejet]

Really only if that is its only Raison d'être ?
Response to Winners frequent references to excitement through out the years and years and years.

[kiora]

Yes I agree, he's good at it :(

[Shareguy]

Have been watching this company for a while. Looks like large potential upside going forward if all goes to plan, so have taken a small position this morning.

[baaantom]

Would be interesting if the CxBladder IP was carried on the balance sheet at a 'Fair Value' type valuation, valued independently each year. I suppose that IP is the whole companies value at this stage anyway, being the discounted value of the expected future cash flows CxBladder may generate, meaning the market cap of +$1b is essentially the 'Fair Value' of the CxBaldder IP.

[tzbang]

I'm surprised the share issue is not for minority holders, not sure giving priority to big holders is even legal? I suppose it must be...

[Minerbarejet]

I'm surprised the share issue is not for minority holders, not sure giving priority to big holders is even legal? I suppose it must be...
If you are referring to the 450,000 limit I think that only applied to placement.
I doubt the retail offering to NZ shareholders is affected in any way apart from a minimum of 250.00 worth as a parcel.
Apply for as many as you like up to 50,000, no saying you will get them though.

[winner69]

When David started at Pacific Edge shareholders had pumped $9 million into the company

With the latest cap raise Share contributions are now $290m …let’s say they take extra with the retail portion and call it $300m

So Dave has raised $290m over many years from his enthusiasm and optimism and telling good stories ….I’ve lost count how many times Dave has said ‘exciting’ …….. well done Dave …an amazing effort

Hope PEB now starts generating profits.

I can say this because some of my cash is part of that $290m

[Beagle]

When David started at Pacific Edge shareholders had pumped $9 million into the company

With the latest cap raise Share contributions are now $290m …let’s say they take extra with the retail portion and call it $300m

So Dave has raised $290m over many years from his enthusiasm and optimism and telling good stories ….I’ve lost count how many times Dave has said ‘exciting’ …….. well done Dave …an amazing effort

Hope PEB now starts generating profits.

I can say this because some of my cash is part of that $290m

You and I are old enough to remember all the previous countless, (certainly I have lost count), times he's talked about the exciting growth ahead.
I call B.S. and have done for years now but its abundantly clear there's a whole new generation of Jersey cows to be milked and no shortage of them lining up to have their wallets cleaned out. Not worth anything more than 25 times real earnings per share at some point in the future, if it ever makes real earnings which is FAR from certain in my opinion.

[winner69]

Beagle - Salt, ANZ, Harbour and Jarden still heavily invested …prob pumped more in this around

They not mugs …..big payday coming for them coming

[LoungeLizzard]

You and I are old enough to remember all the previous countless, (certainly I have lost count), times he's talked about the exciting growth ahead.
I call B.S. and have done for years now but its abundantly clear there's a whole new generation of Jersey cows to be milked and no shortage of them lining up to have their wallets cleaned out. Not worth anything more than 25 times real earnings per share at some point in the future, if it ever makes real earnings which is FAR from certain in my opinion.

Not bitter about missing out then.....

[Beagle]

Beagle - Salt, ANZ, Harbour and Jarden still heavily invested …prob pumped more in this around

They not mugs …..big payday coming for them coming

Not worried at all mate, he has zero credibility in my opinion.

[Minerbarejet]

Just like to point out that we have actually been at this 1.54 level before in 2014 on the basis of a couple of health insurers signing up.

So considering the latest developments and the acceptance of cxBladder since then it may be that we have a new base or platform to work with.

The ones I feel sorry for are those that sold out on the way to 6 or 7cents for various reasons.

[LoungeLizzard]

Just like to point out that we have actually been at this 1.54 level before in 2014 on the basis of a couple of health insurers signing up.

So considering the latest developments and the acceptance of cxBladder since then it may be that we have a new base or platform to work with.

The ones I feel sorry for are those that sold out on the way to 6 or 7cents for various reasons.

Yep, PEB have had a few inflexion points in the last 18 months where more risk averse investors have bailed and taken their profits. But each time a new floor was established and the company continued to build upon it. I think we are at another one of those points.
Caveat: I could be wrong.

[pierre]

Not worried at all mate, he has zero credibility in my opinion.

Hi Beagle.

While I respect your views and enjoy your comments on many threads on this forum I think today there are 80 million reasons to suggest you just might be slightly awry on this one.

[pierre]

Just been notified by Jarden that I received all the PEB's I applied for.

[DDog]

Oh what. Sharesies investors get none!

[jimdog31]

Hi Beagle.

While I respect your views and enjoy your comments on many threads on this forum I think today there are 80 million reasons to suggest you just might be slightly awry on this one.

I'm with Beagle on this one. I think you will see this stock routinely shorted on the ASX.

[Minerbarejet]

Oh what. Sharesies investors get none!

Less than 450,000 applied for no doubt.
As a combined effort through the platform.

[Ggcc]

I'm with Beagle on this one. I think you will see this stock routinely shorted on the ASX.
In the short term maybe, but longterm I feel this will fly well. It most likely will become the next Xero, but I am not over investing in this share, until I can back it with figures. It went from less than 2% of my shares to over 7% of my portfolio within 6 months and feel happy with that for now

[winner69]

Just like to point out that we have actually been at this 1.54 level before in 2014 on the basis of a couple of health insurers signing up.

So considering the latest developments and the acceptance of cxBladder since then it may be that we have a new base or platform to work with.

The ones I feel sorry for are those that sold out on the way to 6 or 7cents for various reasons.

Went a bit higher than the 150’s …..maybe even 170 odd ….remember Swan and his hundreds of thousands of test and then he had to sell shares to fund the new deck

[Minerbarejet]

Went a bit higher than the 150’s …..maybe even 170 odd ….remember Swan and his hundreds of thousands of test and then he had to sell shares to fund the new deck
You have sure scrambled that up.
And lets not go there anymore, its past history, so lets look to the future which has improved slightly.

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle.

While I respect your views and enjoy your comments on many threads on this forum I think today there are 80 million reasons to suggest you just might be slightly awry on this one.

Seen it all before so many times I've lost count. He talks a big game and the company continues to lose money and raise more capital year after year after year after year.... What happened to his recent spiel that they didn't need any more capital ?

[Beat the Bank]

Ooh la la la Pierre
I got nothing from Jarden or Sharsies, tried both as Sharsies got some for the ERoad placement when others didn't as they were one large shareholder. Do you have 450,000 shares Pierre!!! Go you if so :)
This is what their website says

PEB PlacementThank you to everyone who registered their interest in the Pacific Edge Limited (PEB) Placement, we have been advised that due to high demand, an allocation has only been given to shareholders with more than 450,000 shares. Please note existing shareholders will be able to apply via the Share Purchase Plan (SPP).

This is the second time applying for placements and getting nothing. Annoying waste of time. I still have the retail offer to go though
Anyone else get any???



th Road too.

[Greekwatchdog]

They were always going to need capital to grow the business. CX isn't there only product and the US is not the only market. Everyone makes mistakes and bloopers and you have named a few out who then turned out ok SUM you were unhappy with Julian's sales strategy and even WHS you didn't like the management team. Human like us all.

[Beagle]

They were always going to need capital to grow the business. CX isn't there only product and the US is not the only market. Everyone makes mistakes and bloopers and you have named a few out who then turned out ok SUM you were unhappy with Julian's sales strategy and even WHS you didn't like the management team. Human like us all.

I just follow the money mate and seem to be doing okay.
Surely you would agree its next level B.S. covering up the original Australian listing fiasco saying you don't need capital and then going ahead with the listing and raising more capital 5 minutes later. How is what they said really recently anything but blatant lies ?

How many capital raises and stories of growth have we heard before ?...forgive me I am weary and have lost count over so many years

Anyway...each to their own. I believe earnings and credibility of management matter and when there is none, I'm not interested.

[Greekwatchdog]

I know you do. From what I read in the Herald this morning they were blaming the bankers for a typo. The management team could/should have done a better job with explanation after the incident. Market reaction today was spectacular and endorsement that its time to look forward.

Anyway you have your way of seeing it and thats cool. If your a shareholder you will do well like the rest of us. Have a nice weekend with Mrs B.

[pierre]

Seen it all before so many times I've lost count. He talks a big game and the company continues to lose money and raise more capital year after year after year after year.... What happened to his recent spiel that they didn't need any more capital ?

Clearly, we cant look at PEB as a business making widgets and selling them to punters. It's a bio-tech company with a unique proposition that is taking time to gain acceptance in the conservative medical market - just as Xero had many capital raisings and took years to make a dent in the conservative accounting (your) profession. Neither enterprise is making profits yet (of any significance at least in Xero's case) as they are both investing for growth.

There is considerable risk in both companies - more so with PEB - so they are definitely not businesses that a conservative or income investor would rationally consider. Rubbishing the management - as others have done over the years - hasn't changed the belief of many long-term and institutional investors that these companies have enormous potential.

Your investment strategy is clearly not one that is remotely interested in businesses of this nature. You are a self-professed dividend hound and that's completely fine. I have the majority of my funds in that category too, though the growth in the SP of both XRO and PEB is changing the ratios a bit!

I've always held a reasonable portion of my portfolio in more speculative investments. I'm a very patient investor (not a trader) and am happy to ride the waves and cope with the vagaries of the market. I'm very happy with the outcome to date - though to be fair, the past 10-12 years have generally been pretty good overall.

I've held Xero since 2012 and today they are showing a paper gain of 2510%. I've been in PEB since 2012 too - but bought most in the past 3-4 years - and am showing a healthy 150% capital gain today.

There is much more growth to come with PEB but it will be years before it pays a dividend. They may need even more capital in the future too - but their prospects are bright so they will be supported. Today's CR shows there are plenty of strong believers in the company and its growth potential. I am one of those who subscribed today - and I will do it again in the retail offer.

However, I do not ever expect to see your name on the share register of either company - well, not until they are paying dividends, whenever that might be.

[Harrie]

I just follow the money mate and seem to be doing okay.
Surely you would agree its next level B.S. covering up the original Australian listing fiasco saying you don't need capital and then going ahead with the listing and raising more capital 5 minutes later. How is that anything but blatant lies ?

Sounds like sour grapes to me beagle. Anyone can make money on a rising market, you do not have to be a genius.
Now to a little speculation, and to be fair Beagle you do raise some valid points. There is a saying "fake it till you make it" and it would appear on the surface that Dave has been a master and it and it may pay off!
There is a vast amount of blue sky in the $1.56 SP which values the company at $1.13 bil currently. Admittedly they are currently only doing $7.7 mio of business currently but based on current urological methods of bladder cancer dedection, CXbladder is far superior in both specificity and NPV values if their latest published data is to be believed. We are looking at a $7.3 bil market here but lets just say for arguments sake that they actually even do just 260,000 tests which they currently have the capacity to do. Thats a NZ$260 mil revenue flow. I'm not sure what their margins are but lets say just 40%. that means that earnings would be around $104 mio. If we assume 730 million shares then EPS would around 14.25cps. That would make a P/E of around 11. So what you need to consider is what earnings multiple you would apply to that, assuming that if they actually generate that level of income, you would expect the multiplier to be around 40+ on the basis that this could go worldwide.
On the basis of a 20 multiple on todays price, the price would be calculated at around $2.18 and on a multiple of 40 the price would be approx $4.38
Food for thought?

[Beagle]

Fair enough guys, each to their own. Only reason I post is everyone needs to have no illusions about the risks involved and appropriate asset allocation percentage to a loss making biotech company. $7m sales last year creating a $14m loss and a market capitalization of over $1.1 billion doesn't make any sense to me but good luck to shareholders.

I did okay with PAZ which is a biotech that was making real money. 5 times your money in under 2 years isn't too shabby. The key here is it was making real money at the time I invested which to my mind de-risks a biotech.

Acknowledge everyone has their own way of doing things. I'm pretty content with how I'm going and don't need to take speculative positions.

[Bjauck]

Clearly, we cant look at PEB as a business making widgets and selling them to punters. It's a bio-tech company with a unique proposition that is taking time to gain acceptance in the conservative medical market - just as Xero had many capital raisings and took years to make a dent in the conservative accounting (your) profession. Neither enterprise is making profits yet (of any significance at least in Xero's case) as they are both investing for growth.

There is considerable risk in both companies - more so with PEB - so they are definitely not businesses that a conservative or income investor would rationally consider. Rubbishing the management - as others have done over the years - hasn't changed the belief of many long-term and institutional investors that these companies have enormous potential…
My investment in this company is admittedly based on emotion - I so want them to succeed! I am just delighted that the SP has recently exceeded what I paid for my most recent addition 7 1/2 years ago!

[winner69]

Dave's a genius - his passionate story telling has raised about $300m in cash over the years

But the real genius is that $300m is now worth about $1.3 billion ......he's driven a $1 billion gain for shareholders ..... (while losing zillions in the process)

Truly amazing stuff

Well done Dave - hope your consulting role is to keep the merry go round going

[stoploss]

Went a bit higher than the 150’s …..maybe even 170 odd ….remember Swan and his hundreds of thousands of test and then he had to sell shares to fund the new deck
I sold 5000@ 1.75. 03/02/2014

[winner69]

I sold 5000@ 1.75. 03/02/2014

I sold some about te same time but not quite that high ... well done

Was shortly after a rights issue priced in the 60's wasn't it

We were all gratefull for Swann going on about hundreds of thousands of tests

[t.rexjr]

Dave's a genius - his passionate story telling has raised about $300m in cash over the years

But the real genius is that $300m is now worth about $1.3 billion ......he's driven a $1 billion gain for shareholders ..... (while losing zillions in the process)

Truly amazing stuff

Well done Dave - hope your consulting role is to keep the merry go round going

Indeed. 1.3 billionish fully diluted. That’s pricing in a tidal wave of success.

[Greekwatchdog]

So what do you make of Xero @ $150 aud. The last result was profit of $24m. Doesn't that seem high??

[Beagle]

So what do you make of Xero @ $150 aud. The last result was profit of $24m. Doesn't that seem high??

I've never understood that one either. "Never invest in a business you cannot understand," Warren Buffett once said. I had a bit of a chat about that one with the senior portfolio manager at Barramundi, Robbie Urquhart, after last years annual meeting. I didn't end up getting any comfort so I am a reluctant shareholder in that one through Barramundi. (I understand the business and the software and systems are okay...nothing magic about it so the share price is bewildering)

I guess from a moral and ethical viewpoint the thing I take the most issue with is the number of times the CEO has claimed they don't need to raise capital and then gone on to do exactly that, often quite quickly but this latest fiasco, no matter who they try and blame shift it too is a speed record. He's a recidivist offender. Does lying repeatedly make it okay ? He's done it so often I think its probably actionable now for anyone who can prove they suffered losses as a result.

Forbar have been a big supporter in the past with underwriting these capital raises...are they still waxing lyrical about future prospects or taking a more circumspect view these days ?

I believe that earnings matter, its my life's work and is front and central with all my investing. Others do well based on promises of future earnings, which may or may not ever eventuate or pure speculation (cryptocurrency). Each to their own...

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar had Outperform target $1.60. That was after FY in March. Nothing else mentioned except this morning re Capital Raise. They offered no view. They couldn't really. They had it on Restricted as before full coverage.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BRM/379213/354802.pdf Robbie's report starts at page 10 including commentary about Xero.
I haven't read it yet.

[Greekwatchdog]

Thanks Beagle. Page 12. About growing customer base and marketing, product enhancements. Long Term goals. Back to PEB. Not far before H/Y details out.

[LoungeLizzard]

My investment in this company is admittedly based on emotion - I so want them to succeed! I am just delighted that the SP has recently exceeded what I paid for my most recent addition 7 1/2 years ago!

Same here - making money from an investment whilst supporting a company whose products literally save lives, is the Holy Grail of investing.

[Merc]

Long term Landlord here.
Bought our first rental property 30 years ago and added a few over the years.

Shares? Dad's interest, not mine.

Started getting interested a decade back when dad's health declined.... although reducing mortgages took precedence of course.

Knowing I'd inherit some eventually I figured out I needed to learn about them so did a lot of research and took a punt on PEB. Went into the red for years but added to them on and off.

The original 2 year Brightline test on property? Sorted out the long-term Landlords from the "Buy and Flipper traders."

Shares? I really hope that those who are trading are paying their tax.

Under current rules for those who dare to sell an investment in under 10 years... tax is payable on profit.

[Harrie]

Long term Landlord here.
Bought our first rental property 30 years ago and added a few over the years.

Shares? Dad's interest, not mine.

Started getting interested a decade back when dad's health declined.... although reducing mortgages took precedence of course.

Knowing I'd inherit some eventually I figured out I needed to learn about them so did a lot of research and took a punt on PEB. Went into the red for years but added to them on and off.

The original 2 year Brightline test on property? Sorted out the long-term Landlords from the "Buy and Flipper traders."

Shares? I really hope that those who are trading are paying their tax.

Under current rules for those who dare to sell an investment in under 10 years... tax is payable on profit.

So whats your point?

[Harrie]

I’m a beginner and starting to look at shares outside of ETFs.

I've been looking at Pacific Edge and from what I've read so far they seem pretty awesome, albeit without having much medical or scientific knowledge myself.
- urine tests with a high negative predictive value for bladder cancers
- potentially reducing the need for invasive procedures for patients and the load on medical infrastructure
- likely a high barrier of entry for possible alternatives, e.g. years of clinical studies
- limited competition? I haven’t searched much on that
- a potential market of $3.5 billion in the US and possible growth into other markets
- existing facilities to handle significant growth, up to processing 260k tests per year
- starting to pick up momentum in potential usage
- the upcoming ASX listing
- potentially going to have other products being commercialised e.g. cxcolorectal
- FY21 operating revenue increasing at a much higher % than operating expenses (I might be reading to much into that)

Sounds awesome.

However,
- the current share price of $1.47
- market capitalisation of $1.072 billion
- operating revenue of $7.7 million for FY21
- a lot of potentially

It makes me wonder how much of the potential growth is already priced in to the share price. As a beginner, based on gut feel more than anything else, I would guess a lot. So I’m wondering if and how people are modelling how much potential growth is already factored into the share price. I appreciate it is unlikely to be a simple answer and gradually I am going to try learn about techniques for this.

What you have written here are all good points and I have been thinking about the best way to answer them.
It really comes down to future earnings expectations. The more milestones PEB achieve, the greater the expectation that this trend will continue and could potentially lead to exponential growth (in the most optimistic of expectations).
There is no doubt that there is plenty of blue sky in the current SP, but then if you extrapolate the numbers based on the $7.3 billion dollar industry and assume that PEB has only a fraction of that market, the current SP doesnt look that overpriced. Read my post for more info. #19878

[DonkeyKong]

What you have written here are all good points and I have been thinking about the best way to answer them.
It really comes down to future earnings expectations. The more milestones PEB achieve, the greater the expectation that this trend will continue and could potentially lead to exponential growth (in the most optimistic of expectations).
There is no doubt that there is plenty of blue sky in the current SP, but then if you extrapolate the numbers based on the $7.3 billion dollar industry and assume that PEB has only a fraction of that market, the current SP doesnt look that overpriced. Read my post for more info. #19878

Cheers for taking the time to reply Harrie. That’s some really interesting analysis. Based on your wording, I assume you are considering a 40% margin as a conservative assumption? I wonder if it’s possible to get an idea on their margins from their presentations and reports. Very interesting.

[Shareguy]

Seems I was lucky in getting shares in the capital raise yesterday, time will tell. I decided to invest solely based on the potential going forward and believe the share price is “cheap”compared to the potential upside if it all go’s well. I agree it is a high risk stock, which is why I only purchased a small amount relative to my portfolio.

[Harrie]

Cheers for taking the time to reply Harrie. That’s some really interesting analysis. Based on your wording, I assume you are considering a 40% margin as a conservative assumption? I wonder if it’s possible to get an idea on their margins from their presentations and reports. Very interesting.
Yes 40% is probably on the conservative side but the more adoption of all the Cxbladder tests the higher the margin just simply because of economies to scale. Better margins make the future SP more compelling. I’m sure you realize that my analysis is based purely on potential. I used the current capacity of 260000 tests but the market is much bigger than that if it becomes the gold standard in the US and also world wide.
My other spec stock is Brainchip. Plenty of potential but who knows whether that will manifest into anything.

[Bjauck]

I sold 5000@ 1.75. 03/02/2014
Did you invest the proceeds into something fruitful?

[pierre]

PEB lists on the ASX on Monday. What are you picking that will do to the SP? Anyone want to hazard a guess at Monday's closing price?

[Greekwatchdog]

Why don't we ask Psychic....Come in Psychic..

[Ggcc]

PEB lists on the ASX on Monday. What are you picking that will do to the SP? Anyone want to hazard a guess at Monday's closing price?
Most likely short term rise and after that stability for a bit until figures are seen. No big shorters yet unless company under delivers

[stoploss]

Did you invest the proceeds into something fruitful?
I definitely reinvested it not too sure into what .
I got back into PEB when ANZ took the large stake .

[LoungeLizzard]

PEB lists on the ASX on Monday. What are you picking that will do to the SP? Anyone want to hazard a guess at Monday's closing price?

I'll take a punt, Pierre - $1.70 close of play on Monday. Optimistic,moi?;)

[Cabinet]

$1.70 would suit me very well, but I reckon $1.59. All good to me as cost was 11 cents.

[winner69]

Might do a TruScreen

[Minerbarejet]

PEB lists on the ASX on Monday. What are you picking that will do to the SP? Anyone want to hazard a guess at Monday's closing price?
Have always been optimistic with this share. 4.37 AU at least :)

This is providing there is an accompanying announcement of Aus uptake of cxBladder to go with it otherwise 2.73.

A Singapore one as well would put it over 5.00

Guessing is always hazardous.

Just thought Id liven up your Sunday. :)

[pierre]

Have always been optimistic with this share. 4.37 AU at least :)

This is providing there is an accompanying announcement of Aus uptake of cxBladder to go with it otherwise 2.73.

A Singapore one as well would put it over 5.00

Guessing is always hazardous.

Just thought Id liven up your Sunday. :)
Haha. A guessing game is always a bit of fun. I'm not quite so optimistic that we will reach any of your numbers next week Miner - but maybe in a year or two.
Perhaps $1.60 on Monday - none of the CR shares are allocated till the 29th so I presume they cant be sold till then?

[thegreatestben]

I had 1.80 in mind

[Moneyman]

My pick is $1.75 with $2 possible after the HY results

[Minerbarejet]

On the Aussie alternative to ST PEB is being compared to IMU (MC over 2B) that hasn't sold a thing yet apparently.

[LoungeLizzard]

Might do a TruScreen

Good point - Truscreen price went nuts after ASX listing - doubling in the space of a week. Aussie investors like their biotech. Finges crossed they feel the same about PEB who are in a much better position than Truscreen when they listed.

[DonkeyKong]

On the Aussie alternative to ST PEB is being compared to IMU (MC over 2B) that hasn't sold a thing yet apparently.

Which site is the Aussie alternative?

[Minerbarejet]

We have a buyer in Aus. Massive :)

[Minerbarejet]

Which site is the Aussie alternative?
Check your inbox

[t.rexjr]

The best odds will be on a retrace to the placement price... maybe after a pump first... it is written in the unwritten gospel that is often spoken...

[jridler]

The best odds will be on a retrace to the placement price... maybe after a pump first... it is written in the unwritten gospel that is often spoken...
It is the way of things!

[LoungeLizzard]

The best odds will be on a retrace to the placement price... maybe after a pump first... it is written in the unwritten gospel that is often spoken...

That often is the case but I'm not sure it will be here. CR was heavily oversubscribed - new buyers will take up shares from those who bail. I still think a new floor of about $1.70 will be established - hopefully kicking on from there with further good news to come.

[pierre]

We have a buyer in Aus. Massive :)

Currently there's a buyer for 5,000 shares on the ASX at $1.55 = $NZ1.60 (and a couple of buyers trying their luck at $1.37 and $1.21

No sellers yet.

[pierre]

Currently there's a buyer for 5,000 shares on the ASX at $1.55 = $NZ1.60 (and a couple of buyers trying their luck at $1.37 and $1.21

No sellers yet.

Top bid at 1.21pm is 300 shares at 170 followed by 13200 at 160. - no sellers.

A couple of super optimists offering to buy 3000 shares at $1.00 - don't like their chances!

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[McPussPuss]

Surely that is just part of the pre-open games that are played.
I'm not sure how it applies to the 1 hour delayed start to trading from the overall ASX though.

I'll happily see a 20cent rise if it is where they take it!:D

[pierre]

Surely that is just part of the pre-open games that are played.
I'm not sure how it applies to the 1 hour delayed start to trading from the overall ASX though.

I'll happily see a 20cent rise if it is where they take it!:D

The ASX is open and trading - just no action with PEB yet. Top bid is now 171 = NZD177.

NZX up to 157 at 1.:45pm.

[Balance]

Where PEB sp settles at over the course of this week will depend totally on how well PEB & the joint managers have allotted the $80m shares.

If they have done a good job like Serko (the one I own & follow most closely), we should see good volumes transacted as the flippers sell out to the committed long term holders - provided the allotment of shares was skewed hugely towards the latter. The latter will be happy to buy more on market because any price increase above the placement price immediately improves the returns on their underlying position.

[Riskkiwi]

ASX delay as they havent gone onto daylight savings yet

[Balance]

ASX delay as they havent gone onto daylight savings yet

PEB was always going to start trading 1 hour after ASX opens today.

[pierre]

PEB was always going to start trading 1 hour after ASX opens today.

Ah - OK - hadn't spotted that.

Currently trading at 154 = ~NZD159 - but looks like it might drop back a couple of cents.

[LoungeLizzard]

Looks like things are in a holding pattern. As Balance suggests it will take a week or so before the decks are cleared and long term buying kicks up the SP. This will run and run once it gets going again...

[t.rexjr]

This will run and run once it gets going again...

Maybe once there's hints of becoming profitable... Until then it's all a bit pie in the sky...

[Maxtrade]

Looks like things are in a holding pattern. As Balance suggests it will take a week or so before the decks are cleared and long term buying kicks up the SP. This will run and run once it gets going again...

Once the $20M retail offer gets over subscribed (probably considerably) might see the demand flow on after that pushing SP in an upwards direction. 1.7/1.8. Then will probably stabilise and settle there until more positive news with use of the Cap Raise funds leading to implementation and profits. Then who knows how high we will see SP go, considerably higher for sure.

Agree or disagree team PEB?

[winner69]

Once the $20M retail offer gets over subscribed (probably considerably) might see the demand flow on after that pushing SP in an upwards direction. 1.7/1.8. Then will probably stabilise and settle there until more positive news with use of the Cap Raise funds leading to implementation and profits. Then who knows how high we will see SP go, considerably higher for sure.

Agree or disagree team PEB?

Don't fret about today or this week or this month maxie ..... just celebrate when its over 3 bucks middle of next year

[Balance]

The low volume traded yesterday suggests to me that institutions have got what they want because of the $20m extra raised via over-subscription.

Would have better for the sp short term to keep the amount raised to $60m, and let the $20m be bought on market by institutions.

We could see the sp settle back towards $1.50 when the flippers tire of waiting for the institutions to buy more on market and take their quick 10%+ gains.

Longer term, it's of course better for PEB to take the oversubscription as it means an additional $20m cash for operating expenses while revenues are building up.

[pierre]

We may receive an investor newsletter/update early next month ( as we did last year) which may give a hint as to progress made over the past quarter.

I'd like to think there has been some kind of transformational growth that motivated the Board to put the pedal to the metal and raise such a large lump of cash to keep it going.

Then the half-year report at the end of November will surely shed light on the growth plan which will determine the trajectory for the SP.

One thing is for sure, PEB wont be spending the cash on heaps of overseas travel for a few months yet - not while we maintain the "North Korean option in our smug hermit kingdom" anyway.

[whatsup]

The retail sell off starting atm as they release funds to front up for their SPP cost, imo further weakness will prevail until the SPP closes, could be wrong however !

[Harrie]

All we need now is a buy in to the new technology from Johns Hopkins, and a few more of the bigger players in the USA and more than the current capacity of 260000 tests pa will be required. When this happens hold on to your hats LT'ers. It may happen sooner than we expect. All it takes is a couple more Kaisers and the rest will follow like lambs to slaughter.

[Balance]

The retail sell off starting atm as they release funds to front up for their SPP cost, imo further weakness will prevail until the SPP closes, could be wrong however !

Good point.

Looking at the bugger all volume in Australia, I wonder also if most of the $80m had been allotted to NZ institutions. Hope that’s not the case as they are already overweight the stock.

[Harrie]

There is some logic for existing s/h's for selling off $50000 worth of stock at somewhere in the 1.50's and buying back at $1.35 or lower after allocation. The only risk is that there maybe scaling but that appears to be less likely.
Like Balance I am a little surprised at the lack of volume on the ASX, which does seem to suggest that most of the funding for the CR has come from NZ. May take a bit of time for the Aussies to catch on to the potential.

[Balance]

Good point.

Looking at the bugger all volume in Australia, I wonder also if most of the $80m had been allotted to NZ institutions. Hope that’s not the case as they are already overweight the stock.

Depth on ASX suggest retail buying but institutional selling - buying side is thin as.

I hope PEB & the joint CR managers have not screwed this one up by accepting the over-subscriptions of $20m, taking buying support away from the post CR market on ASX.

Imagine what $10m to $20m worth of post CR buying would do to the sp, as opposed to those who bid for more shares in expectations of being scaled back getting all they want.

Radius did the same thing (accept over-subscription) and screwed the aftermarket up.

Anyway, as long as sp is above $1.45, I will be applying for my full $50,000.

[Minerbarejet]

Approximately 59.3 million shares were sold in the Placement. Settlement is expected to occur on 29 September 2021 for the ASX and 30 September 2021 for the NZX, with allotment and commencement of trading of the Placement shares on both NZX and ASX expected to occur 30 September 2021.

Are we there yet?

[Balance]

Approximately 59.3 million shares were sold in the Placement. Settlement is expected to occur on 29 September 2021 for the ASX and 30 September 2021 for the NZX, with allotment and commencement of trading of the Placement shares on both NZX and ASX expected to occur 30 September 2021.

Are we there yet?

Shares are already trading on ASX?

Could be on deferred basis I guess.

[Minerbarejet]

Shares are already trading on ASX?

Could be on deferred basis I guess.

Might be why its a bit thin on the ground at the moment.

[Harrie]

Nothing to stop investors in Aussie buying. Any demand would be met by shunting shares across to the ASX. lets say there are a heap of sellers on the NZX @ NZ$1.50. If an Australian investor was prepared to pay A$1.44 (Using mid rate 0.9616) then you have a match. So I don't see the lack of activity as a lack of supply, what is more of an issue is lack of demand IMHO

[Merc]

I do hope ALL "Flippers" are paying tax on their Capital Gains... like those who Buy and Flip Property.

My guess is probably not.

[Merc]

Where PEB sp settles at over the course of this week will depend totally on how well PEB & the joint managers have allotted the $80m shares.

If they have done a good job like Serko (the one I own & follow most closely), we should see good volumes transacted as the flippers sell out to the committed long term holders - provided the allotment of shares was skewed hugely towards the latter. The latter will be happy to buy more on market because any price increase above the placement price immediately improves the returns on their underlying position.

PS. My reply was to THIS post

[artemis]

I do hope ALL "Flippers" are paying tax on their Capital Gains... like those who Buy and Flip Property.
My guess is probably not.

Time for a bright line test on selling other assets? Shares, currency, farms, businesses, commodities, art, classic cars, own home. No problem to sell, just pay income tax on capital gain. How about 10 years. Just to be consistent, of course.

[Balance]

I do hope ALL "Flippers" are paying tax on their Capital Gains... like those who Buy and Flip Property.

My guess is probably not.

Capital gains are non-taxable in PIE funds, right?

[Mel]

Capital gains are non-taxable in PIE funds, right?
My understanding is that the general rule is that capital gains in NZ/AUS shares in a PIE fund are not subject to capital gains.

[Balance]

My understanding is that the general rule is that capital gains in NZ/AUS shares in a PIE fund are not subject to capital gains.

Thanks. That has been my understanding but I wondered if I had missed any changes in tax laws on PIE in recent times.

[calledone]

I've applied for the full $50k yesterday. Hoping scaling won't be huge.

[Neophyte]

I've applied for the full $50k yesterday. Hoping scaling won't be huge.

Have also applied for the full $50k. Believe in the potential opportunity and happy to give them the time to execute. It's not a certainty but personally have seen/heard enough to be part of the journey

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/380072/355919.pdf

Interesting one of the big holders decided not to participate in the CR but sold shares during the sp spike following the ASX listing announcement.

[calledone]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/380072/355919.pdf

Interesting one of the big holders decided not to participate in the CR but sold shares during the sp spike following the ASX listing announcement.

Are we able to check who are the institutions that took part in the oversubscribed placement?

Looks like Westpac still has a significant holding.

[Retired Doc]

A further 2c worth. The best part of the recent PEB spiel for me was the statement of their intention to have a focus on getting the test to primary care. This is where the real potential for growth lies and where CxBladder can have a major effect on the diagnosis of bladder cancer at considerable cost savings and far greater convenience to the patient. I can see why PEB had to aim at the specialist Urologists first but soon GP's will be clamouring for access to it (IMHO). Hold and buy.......

[Minerbarejet]

I dont see PEB as being anything other than the best place to chuck some money and wait for the action.

Apart from ASX:CDY that is related through the MK component of the cxBladder test.

Seems that Covid might be a further development there with MK, plus they would appear to be an ideal candidate for any

Aus clinical involvement of the cxBladder test as a suitable testing site subject to CLIA approval.

IMHO

[DonkeyKong]

A further 2c worth. The best part of the recent PEB spiel for me was the statement of their intention to have a focus on getting the test to primary care. This is where the real potential for growth lies and where CxBladder can have a major effect on the diagnosis of bladder cancer at considerable cost savings and far greater convenience to the patient. I can see why PEB had to aim at the specialist Urologists first but soon GP's will be clamouring for access to it (IMHO). Hold and buy.......

Agreed, albeit with my limited knowledge, primary care usage seems like it would be both great for patients convenience and great for freeing up medical resources. A double win. Sounds awesome.

And Kaiser is meant to have started commercially using Cxbladder Triage from August 2021. This should hopefully mean there is an uptake of primary care providers starting to use CxBladder from this quarter.

Will be interesting to see their half year results. :)

[Beat the Bank]

I've applied for the full $50k yesterday. Hoping scaling won't be huge.
Neophyte Have also applied for the full $50k.

As I understand it we do not have to get applications in just yet. Nothing wrong with getting in early unless something changes next week.

You should complete your application allowing sufficient time for it to be received by 5.00pm NZDT on Wednesday 13 October 2021.

[Rokko]

I dont see PEB as being anything other than the best place to chuck some money and wait for the action.

Apart from ASX:CDY that is related through the MK component of the cxBladder test.

Seems that Covid might be a further development there with MK, plus they would appear to be an ideal candidate for any

Aus clinical involvement of the cxBladder test as a suitable testing site subject to CLIA approval.

IMHO

My first post -Hope this is how it's done.
Hi MBJ. I agree PEB is up with the best places to chuck some money but need enlightenment about CDY. I took a small punt on them over a year ago(probably after a mention of yours). But I understood early this year they divested that side of the business(Lyramid) though will share in future profits. They must rate as a poor performer for me.
My winner on the ASX has some similarities to PEB. ADO(Anteo Diagnostics Ltd) appear to have a winner Rapid Antigen Test for covid(& easily adaptable for other viruses) but questionable strategies regarding turning into a profitable product.

Been a PEB holder for over 10years. A believer in their science, but trying to catch a falling sword in 2014 left me scarred. Long been irrationally overweight in PEB(even when sitting on a 50% loss immediately before last year's Kaiser announcement). On that announcement I plunged in with the biggest share purchase of my life that has turned out almost unbelievably/bewilderingly successful. Being such a believer I considered gathering every $ I've got and investing all in PEB. Then I asked myself "What could possibly go wrong". I small amount of imagining decided me against that.

So now I'm probably insanely overweight in PEB. But if they keep going up what can I do? Sell? (I did let a small portion go at $1.55 the other day).

I appreciate the posts on ShareTrader including the cautionary ones that are often food for thought. Thanks Balance ,Psychic

[Minerbarejet]

My first post -Hope this is how it's done.
Hi MBJ. I agree PEB is up with the best places to chuck some money but need enlightenment about CDY. I took a small punt on them over a year ago(probably after a mention of yours). But I understood early this year they divested that side of the business(Lyramid) though will share in future profits. They must rate as a poor performer for me.
My winner on the ASX has some similarities to PEB. ADO(Anteo Diagnostics Ltd) appear to have a winner Rapid Antigen Test for covid(& easily adaptable for other viruses) but questionable strategies regarding turning into a profitable product.

Been a PEB holder for over 10years. A believer in their science, but trying to catch a falling sword in 2014 left me scarred. Long been irrationally overweight in PEB(even when sitting on a 50% loss immediately before last year's Kaiser announcement). On that announcement I plunged in with the biggest share purchase of my life that has turned out almost unbelievably/bewilderingly successful. Being such a believer I considered gathering every $ I've got and investing all in PEB. Then I asked myself "What could possibly go wrong". I small amount of imagining decided me against that.

So now I'm probably insanely overweight in PEB. But if they keep going up what can I do? Sell? (I did let a small portion go at $1.55 the other day).

I appreciate the posts on ShareTrader including the cautionary ones that are often food for thought. Thanks Balance ,Psychic
Probably in order to not derail this thread you could observe some of the recent posts on the ASX forum of ST under the CDY a hair raising stock section and ask any questions there.
Cheers
Miner

[Rokko]

Thanks for pointing me there Miner
Very informative.
Cheers
Rokko

[Rokko]

Thanks for pointing me there Miner<br>Very informative.<br>Cheers<br>Rokko

[Watchful]

I’m still holding some real concern with the timing of the dual listing and cap raise.

If test numbers, medicare receipts, progress as such, has continued to grow in Q2 in the manner they have been giving us the impression of, then surely they would have been better served waiting until the HY results to pass the hat around again?

Late Nov 2018 - Interim results and cap raise
Late Nov 2019 - Interim results and cap raise
No need for placement in 2020 due to ANZ July buy-in following LCD inclusion.

I realise they may not have wanted to wait another two months until their traditional announcement period and risk losing momentum, however with the HY finishing yesterday, they would have easily been able to give some guidance regarding completed tests for the HY, if they had only waited a couple of weeks. Perhaps they didn’t feel Q2 would be viewed so favourably?

The offer document quite nicely integrated the Q1 results to make a very progressive chart, but the most forward-looking I can see beyond that point is “the company continues to deliver month on month increases in revenue and test numbers.”
Constant increases are excellent, but by how much, is the question?

Either way, they’re shortly going to have a nice foundation of $100m in cash no matter the results to come.

Discl: had become heavily overweight, balanced down to a much more comfortable level over recent months. Can’t help the feeling we’re never getting the full picture with each announcement.

Hopefully I’m being overly pessimistic and faithful holders get to enjoy the spoils for years to come.

[jridler]

Worth rehashing the link to this video (I believe it's been posted in this forum previously) to highlight the efficacy of Cxbladder under a wide sample. No false negatives is very impressive.

https://grandroundsinurology.com/industry-perspective-panel-discussion-on-cxbladder-genomic-urine-test-for-bladder-cancer/

[Brain]

Thanks for posting. Cystoscopy is commonly referred to as the gold standard. From what I have been reading it seems to me that CX bladder totally out performs Cystoscopy. Referring to cystoscopy as the brass standard might be more accurate. Unfortunately now there appears to be very few dissenting points of view on this thread. We are left with psychic as the only person who comes to mind. Maybe Psychic would like to comment on this.

[jridler]

Thanks for posting. Cystoscopy is commonly referred to as the gold standard. From what I have been reading it seems to me that CX bladder totally out performs Cystoscopy. Referring to cystoscopy as the brass standard might be more accurate. Unfortunately now there appears to be very few dissenting points of view on this thread. We are left with psychic as the only person who comes to mind. Maybe Psychic would like to comment on this.

Unfortunately, regardless of the efficacy of Cxbladder, cystoscopy remains the standard until the AUA state otherwise. However, there is now reasonably extensive mention of Cxbladder (not urinary biomarkers generally, not NMP22 or UroVysion or ImmunoCyt, but Cxbladder specifically) via the AUA and other channels to suggest a potential turning of the tide.

"Urine Markers after Diagnosis of Bladder Cancer
Guideline Statement 9
9. In surveillance of NMIBC, a clinician should not use urinary biomarkers in place of cystoscopic evaluation. (Strong Recommendation; Evidence Strength: Grade B)" (https://www.auanet.org/guidelines/guidelines/bladder-cancer-non-muscle-invasive-guideline)

"Although several studies have suggested that Cxbladder may replace cystoscopy there is currently a lack of high quality evidence to make this recommendation." (https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/aua-2021-program/aua-2021-bladder-cancer/131965-aua-2021-aua-guideline-amendment-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer.html)

[Minerbarejet]

Unfortunately, regardless of the efficacy of Cxbladder, cystoscopy remains the standard until the AUA state otherwise. However, there is now reasonably extensive mention of Cxbladder (not urinary biomarkers generally, not NMP22 or UroVysion or ImmunoCyt, but Cxbladder specifically) via the AUA and other channels to suggest a potential turning of the tide.

"Urine Markers after Diagnosis of Bladder Cancer
Guideline Statement 9
9. In surveillance of NMIBC, a clinician should not use urinary biomarkers in place of cystoscopic evaluation. (Strong Recommendation; Evidence Strength: Grade B)" (https://www.auanet.org/guidelines/guidelines/bladder-cancer-non-muscle-invasive-guideline)

"Although several studies have suggested that Cxbladder may replace cystoscopy there is currently a lack of high quality evidence to make this recommendation." (https://www.urotoday.com/conference-highlights/aua-2021-program/aua-2021-bladder-cancer/131965-aua-2021-aua-guideline-amendment-non-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer-muscle-invasive-bladder-cancer.html)

You may well consider what would happen if the AUA suddenly said "Yeah, all good. We recommend it over cystoscopy."

How would Pacific Edge cope with that?

Would they be able to handle the sudden influx.

Needs to be a graduated approach and I think the first step has been taken with specific mention of cxBladder as opposed to all the others in their guidelines

[Ggcc]

You may well consider what would happen if the AUA suddenly said "Yeah, all good. We recommend it over cystoscopy."

How would Pacific Edge cope with that?

Would they be able to handle the sudden influx.

Needs to be a graduated approach and I think the first step has been taken with specific mention of cxBladder as opposed to all the others in their guidelines
Pacific Edge have always indicated they want to be adjunct to cystoscopy never a replacement for it.

[Minerbarejet]

Pacific Edge have always indicated they want to be adjunct to cystoscopy never a replacement for it.

They seem quite willing enough to have cxBladder described as the gold standard in NZ as set out in some of the presentations.

[850man]

They seem quite willing enough to have cxBladder described as the gold standard in NZ as set out in some of the presentations.

If it has proven efficacy greater than cystoscopy then it must be more "golden" certainly hurts less.

[Balance]

Very low volume going through ASX. Wondering now just how many of the $80m shares actually went to Australian institutions - an important point as they are supposedly the new entrants to the share register.

[calledone]

Very low volume going through ASX. Wondering now just how many of the $80m shares actually went to Australian institutions - an important point as they are supposedly the new entrants to the share register.

Based of this afr article some of the mentioned institutions are all from Australia. (IFM Investors, Ophir Asset Management, Antares Capital)

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/cancer-diagnosis-firm-pacific-edge-attracts-funds-20210927-p58v5c

[jridler]

Pacific Edge have always indicated they want to be adjunct to cystoscopy never a replacement for it.

My understanding of the use of Cxbladder in the clinical pathway.

Cxbladder Triage: Reduce the need for cystoscopy (referred for cystoscopy if CxbT test results are +ve and/or imaging shows abnormality)
Cxbladder Detect: Used as an adjunct to cystoscopy, and as the preferred urinary biomarker (the "gold standard" of urinary biomarkers
Cxbladder Monitor: Reduce the frequency of surveillance cystoscopy

P18 of the recent ASX investor presentation referring to the NZ market suggests the use of CxbT as a replacement to cystoscopy, which is consistent with the above: "New electronic guideline ‘Health Pathways’ withCxbladder Triage and imaging for all haematuria patients- replacing previous gold standard cystoscopy and othertests and procedures"

Unfortunately, the HealthWays portal requires you to be a healthcare professional, so I can't read the fine print on this...if there is anybody with access to this electronic guideline then it would be fantastic to get the exact text referencing the use of CxbT in the clinical pathway. I am hopeful that the groundwork in NZ provides a foundation with which to establish similar guidelines in the US.

From a purely strategic perspective, it would seem wiser to first position as a complement to cystoscopy before gradually swallowing the cystoscopy-dominated part of the market (remember that there is an industry that supports this activity and which is incentivised to continue to do so). That may not make any sense at all from a clinical perspective, but the strategist in me likes the idea.

[Ggcc]

My understanding of the use of Cxbladder in the clinical pathway.

Cxbladder Triage: Reduce the need for cystoscopy (referred for cystoscopy if CxbT test results are +ve and/or imaging shows abnormality)
Cxbladder Detect: Used as an adjunct to cystoscopy, and as the preferred urinary biomarker (the "gold standard" of urinary biomarkers
Cxbladder Monitor: Reduce the frequency of surveillance cystoscopy

P18 of the recent ASX investor presentation referring to the NZ market suggests the use of CxbT as a replacement to cystoscopy, which is consistent with the above: "New electronic guideline ‘Health Pathways’ withCxbladder Triage and imaging for all haematuria patients- replacing previous gold standard cystoscopy and othertests and procedures"

Unfortunately, the HealthWays portal requires you to be a healthcare professional, so I can't read the fine print on this...if there is anybody with access to this electronic guideline then it would be fantastic to get the exact text referencing the use of CxbT in the clinical pathway. I am hopeful that the groundwork in NZ provides a foundation with which to establish similar guidelines in the US.

From a purely strategic perspective, it would seem wiser to first position as a complement to cystoscopy before gradually swallowing the cystoscopy-dominated part of the market (remember that there is an industry that supports this activity and which is incentivised to continue to do so). That may not make any sense at all from a clinical perspective, but the strategist in me likes the idea.
Very interesting. Thanks for your post

[Minerbarejet]

Someone once made the statement on this thread, I think some time ago, that

" Medical Students in 2050 will be rolling around on the floor with laughter after it is disclosed to them that back in the 20s they were still sticking cameras up their whizzers trying to find bladder cancers.

They did WHAT!!!!?"

[pierre]

Someone once made the statement on this thread, I think some time ago, that

" Medical Students in 2050 will be rolling around on the floor with laughter after it is disclosed to them that back in the 20s they were still sticking cameras up their whizzers trying to find bladder cancers.

They did WHAT!!!!?"

Haha. Fortunately, the medicos haven't attempted to do the job using a box brownie (google it if you're under 40) but I'm sure it will be long before 2050 that current cystoscopy will appear to be equally as dated.

[Retired Doc]

Someone once made the statement on this thread, I think some time ago, that

" Medical Students in 2050 will be rolling around on the floor with laughter after it is disclosed to them that back in the 20s they were still sticking cameras up their whizzers trying to find bladder cancers.

They did WHAT!!!!?"
I’m glad whoever said that didn’t say “Robots” ……….

[850man]

PEB is a bit like a tyre with a nail in it at the moment - price is leaking out day by day, down 12c over a week. Is this the $1.35 CR causing this or something else? Anyone know?

[Balance]

PEB is a bit like a tyre with a nail in it at the moment - price is leaking out day by day, down 12c over a week. Is this the $1.35 CR causing this or something else? Anyone know?

Hardly surprising when offshore markets are falling. PEB is a high beta stock.

Some nervous souls will be happy to lock in some profits from the $80m placed at $1.35. Quick 10% profit for jam.

[Balance]

Still very light volumes going through after the $80m placement. Something does not quite gel.

[LoungeLizzard]

Still very light volumes going through after the $80m placement. Something does not quite gel.

The cap raise was badly managed from the beginning - the leak took the momentum out of the SP prior to the placement and then they increased it by a further $20m which has led to very little buying since then. And then some have chosen to sell and buy in at $1.35 in the retail offer. SP is going to drift down to maybe $1.40 and then there'll hopefully be some good news to pump it up again. Nothing's changed business wise.

[winner69]

Our past Chairman wasn't that good at building decks after all

Poor Swannie

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/canterbury-house-builder-fails-owing-12m-new-list-of-creditors-out-from-liquidator/M2XPZ5KFVPZIGMFKP7UFRI56UE/

[Balance]

Our past Chairman wasn't that good at building decks after all

Poor Swannie

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/canterbury-house-builder-fails-owing-12m-new-list-of-creditors-out-from-liquidator/M2XPZ5KFVPZIGMFKP7UFRI56UE/

He promised to build several tens of houses?

And like PEB under his chairmanship, delivered bugger all?

[LoungeLizzard]

Another tone deaf move by PEB today - CEO sells 400k of shares just after a bungled cap raise and with SP sliding. I hope the arrogance of the past is not creeping back in...

[zs_cecil]

Another tone deaf move by PEB today - CEO sells 400k of shares just after a bungled cap raise and with SP sliding. I hope the arrogance of the past is not creeping back in...

It might be the case that the CEO just wanted to sell some shares and get back the same amount of the money he just spent on exercising his option. He still keeps the rest of the shares from the option though. Good way to acquire mores share with zero cost. :-)

[DonkeyKong]

It might be the case that the CEO just wanted to sell some shares and get back the same amount of the money he just spent on exercising his option. He still keeps the rest of the shares from the option though. Good way to acquire mores share with zero cost. :-)

Exactly this, right? Quoted from the announcement today:

”The Ongoing Disclosure Notice provides details on the acquisition of 750,000 shares through the exercising of Options, and the sale of 413,233 shares to assist with the funding of the exercise settlement and subsequent tax liability arising from the exercising of the options by David Darling.”

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380428

I’m curious how come you think it is a tone deaf move LoungeLizzard?

[Balance]

Exactly this, right? Quoted from the announcement today:

”The Ongoing Disclosure Notice provides details on the acquisition of 750,000 shares through the exercising of Options, and the sale of 413,233 shares to assist with the funding of the exercise settlement and subsequent tax liability arising from the exercising of the options by David Darling.”

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380428

I’m curious how come you think it is a tone deaf move LoungeLizzard?

Fair enough ‘swap’ by DD.

There’s another way to interpret DD’s action though - which is that he exercised 750,000 options and then, sold 400,000 of the exercised shares?

I think that’s how LoungeLizard interpret it.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/380446/356358.pdf

Note that DD has shunted his 750k shares to ASX.

[zs_cecil]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/380446/356358.pdf

Note that DD has shunted his 750k shares to ASX.

Is that what this application for quotation means?

[psychic]

Acceptable to sell shares to buy options. But regardless of intent, is it acceptable to sell shares when he knows the revenue and lab throughput for the 6 months to 30 Sept and the market does not?

[zs_cecil]

Acceptable to sell shares to buy options. But regardless of intent, is it acceptable to sell shares when he knows the revenue and lab throughput for the 6 months to 30 Sept and the market does not?

Hm...that's a good question I reckon...

[jridler]

That move would make reasonable sense for any investor. DD will always come under more scrutiny given role in the company, and rightly so. It doesn't seem that there is anything amiss though. The reason for the sale (ie funding to exercise options) has been clearly disclosed.

[LoungeLizzard]

Exactly this, right? Quoted from the announcement today:

”The Ongoing Disclosure Notice provides details on the acquisition of 750,000 shares through the exercising of Options, and the sale of 413,233 shares to assist with the funding of the exercise settlement and subsequent tax liability arising from the exercising of the options by David Darling.”

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380428

I’m curious how come you think it is a tone deaf move LoungeLizzard?

Darling - that would be Captain Darling - exercised options to buy 750k shares at 80c and sold 450k at 1.45 (higher than current SP). Perfectly legit but the timing is a bit "tone-deaf" given the CR fiasco and a declining SP. Better to have waited until the ship has steadied, before breaking out the rum...

[jridler]

Fair enough ‘swap’ by DD.

There’s another way to interpret DD’s action though - which is that he exercised 750,000 options and then, sold 400,000 of the exercised shares?

I think that’s how LoungeLizard interpret it.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/380446/356358.pdf

Note that DD has shunted his 750k shares to ASX.

That scenario is ruled out in the Capital Change Notice - refer to the transaction dates at the top of page 2.

[Balance]

That scenario is ruled out in the Capital Change Notice - refer to the transaction dates at the top of page 2.

Dates do not matter as much as intent?

DD clearly intended to exercise the options and just sold ahead of his options being exercised.

[LoungeLizzard]

That scenario is ruled out in the Capital Change Notice - refer to the transaction dates at the top of page 2.

As far as I am aware there was no time limit that meant he had to exercise his share options. He's the CEO and the market looks at the share activity of the Board very closely - I would have like to see him and others buy in at this time, not exercise options to sell and then buy. No substitute for putting your money where your mouth is.

[jridler]

As far as I am aware there was no time limit that meant he had to exercise his share options. He's the CEO and the market looks at the share activity of the Board very closely - I would have like to see him and others buy in at this time, not exercise options to sell and then buy. No substitute for putting your money where your mouth is.

I believe these (see image) are the options which were exercised, as per p42 of the most recent annual report. Expiry date of September 2021. I really don't see any issue with it - if he didn't have the cash to front up to exercise the options, would it have been preferable to let them expire simply because the market may misinterpret?

If he had simply sold his shares and not exercised options then that would be a different story entirely...

13046

[850man]

As far as I am aware there was no time limit that meant he had to exercise his share options. He's the CEO and the market looks at the share activity of the Board very closely - I would have like to see him and others buy in at this time, not exercise options to sell and then buy. No substitute for putting your money where your mouth is.

Would buying or selling after full year results were known but before these were released to the market be insider trading? A thin path to walk no matter what you do.

[Balance]

A measly 17,000 shares traded on ASX today.

Australian institutions happy with their shareholdings so not buying more?

Or is it something else?

[DonkeyKong]

Darling - that would be Captain Darling - exercised options to buy 750k shares at 80c and sold 450k at 1.45 (higher than current SP). Perfectly legit but the timing is a bit "tone-deaf" given the CR fiasco and a declining SP. Better to have waited until the ship has steadied, before breaking out the rum...

I think I’m okay with that. However, the part I hadn’t thought about until others mentioned it here, the timing around half year results is a bit iffy and I’m a bit surprised by it. Would of thought he would have to do it after key dates.

[Minerbarejet]

It doesn't matter to me.

If a director sells at any time it is always treated with suspicion and as a negative by others who have the opportunity to

sell and buy as many as they like whenever they like.

Think it ought to be taken into account that he still has a pretty substantial number of shares and is handing over the reins in 6 months.

After his long career with PEB I think he might be entitled to use some of his funds without a bunch of people saying tsk tsk.

[Minerbarejet]

A measly 17,000 shares traded on ASX today.

Australian institutions happy with their shareholdings so not buying more?

Or is it something else?

Wouldnt they be waiting on some guidance as to what the actual 100 million in funds plus a retail CR are going to be used on?

Being at the half year I would expect an update on this perhaps to accompany the Prelim result in late November.

It may even be time to get quarterly updates now that things are on the move.

These normally occur during the month after quarter completion.

[Minerbarejet]

Looks as if Aussie is starting up with cxBladder at long last.

www.tropicnow.com.au/2021/october/3/cairns-hospital-chosen-to-trial-new-bladder-cancer-detection-method

[LoungeLizzard]

Looks as if Aussie is starting up with cxBladder at long last.

www.tropicnow.com.au/2021/october/3/cairns-hospital-chosen-to-trial-new-bladder-cancer-detection-method (http://www.tropicnow.com.au/2021/october/3/cairns-hospital-chosen-to-trial-new-bladder-cancer-detection-method)

Well spotted. I'm surprised PE haven't released this, as it is the sort of news that the market likes and responds to. Could be significant if CXBladder comes out of the trials well, as it has done in the US, as it will open the door to a significant market.

[psychic]

Looks as if Aussie is starting up with cxBladder at long last.

www.tropicnow.com.au/2021/october/3/cairns-hospital-chosen-to-trial-new-bladder-cancer-detection-method

Boom! :)
Whatever happened to the Royal Melb Hosp Trial back in 2014? Completed almost 4 years ago?

https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=369919&isReview=true

[Minerbarejet]

Boom! :)
Whatever happened to the Royal Melb Hosp Trial back in 2014? Completed almost 4 years ago?

https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=369919&isReview=true

Aussies, mate.
No surprises there.

And I suppose they will take another 7 years to get it all verified, AGAIN.