PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380594

Reminder to get your application in by 13 October for the SPP.

[Watchful]

I’m still holding some real concern with the timing of the dual listing and cap raise.

If test numbers, medicare receipts, progress as such, has continued to grow in Q2 in the manner they have been giving us the impression of, then surely they would have been better served waiting until the HY results to pass the hat around again?

Late Nov 2018 - Interim results and cap raise
Late Nov 2019 - Interim results and cap raise
No need for placement in 2020 due to ANZ July buy-in following LCD inclusion.

I realise they may not have wanted to wait another two months until their traditional announcement period and risk losing momentum, however with the HY finishing yesterday, they would have easily been able to give some guidance regarding completed tests for the HY, if they had only waited a couple of weeks. Perhaps they didn’t feel Q2 would be viewed so favourably?

The offer document quite nicely integrated the Q1 results to make a very progressive chart, but the most forward-looking I can see beyond that point is “the company continues to deliver month on month increases in revenue and test numbers.”
Constant increases are excellent, but by how much, is the question?

Either way, they’re shortly going to have a nice foundation of $100m in cash no matter the results to come.

Discl: had become heavily overweight, balanced down to a much more comfortable level over recent months. Can’t help the feeling we’re never getting the full picture with each announcement.

Hopefully I’m being overly pessimistic and faithful holders get to enjoy the spoils for years to come.

Just quoting this back to the front as it got caught in purgatory for a few days and wasn’t seen.

Would appreciate any other perspectives. Why not wait just a little longer until q2 test and possibly revenue numbers could be included?

[t.rexjr]

Just quoting this back to the front as it got caught in purgatory for a few days and wasn’t seen.

Would appreciate any other perspectives. Why not wait just a little longer until q2 test and possibly revenue numbers could be included?

There are many reasons... It may well just be Peacocking. To commit big business it helps to have a healthy balance sheet. + now is the time to hit the sales hard before a retreat back to pre Covid normality...
It does suggest that growth % is only impressive due to a low base though...

[Balance]

There are many reasons... It may well just be Peacocking. To commit big business it helps to have a healthy balance sheet. + now is the time to hit the sales hard before a retreat back to pre Covid normality...
It does suggest that growth % is only impressive due to a low base though...

A year on from receiving LCD coverage, the rubber has well and truly been on the road so it will definitely be interesting to say the least to see how far PEB has travelled.

[RGR367]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380594

Reminder to get your application in by 13 October for the SPP.

Nice to know that Balance is now a true follower of PEB and he's even reminding us to get more of this stock. But much to my liking, I already got heaps of this so I might just apply about half of the maximum.
GLTAH!

[thegreatestben]

Has anyone gone to the trouble of calculating roughly how much existing shares will be diluted by? I don’t think I want to take full amount available but wouldn’t mind topping up to remain at status quo.

[jridler]

A year on from receiving LCD coverage, the rubber has well and truly been on the road so it will definitely be interesting to say the least to see how far PEB has travelled.

And whether any immediate impact from KP adding CxbT starting August 2021...

[psychic]

Just quoting this back to the front as it got caught in purgatory for a few days and wasn’t seen.

Would appreciate any other perspectives. Why not wait just a little longer until q2 test and possibly revenue numbers could be included?

At the time of the "surprise" Cash Raise I suggested this was to simply secure funding for W/cap over the next few years, because I believe they are still a long way away from the meaningful commercial uptake the blind faithful here desperately want to believe. And simply that they would not secure that funding once Sept results are out. The faithful here wanted us to believe it had to be for some grand expansion, Asia, new labs, colorectal tests...sigh.

Don't let the story cloud the facts with this one, you are right to wonder about these things. Be careful.

[mondograss]

There are many reasons... It may well just be Peacocking. To commit big business it helps to have a healthy balance sheet. + now is the time to hit the sales hard before a retreat back to pre Covid normality...
It does suggest that growth % is only impressive due to a low base though...

In the health sphere, it's not entirely unusual to want to see healthy financials of those suppliers that you deal with. There would be a degree of nervousness in signing up to use tests from a company that looked like it was only just scraping by. These decisions are not taken lightly as health providers really can't tolerate any disruption to their supply chain, particularly on something that has single point sensitivity like specialised testing.

[calledone]

Wow 380 shares traded in ASX so far!! Aussie retail not interested or are not aware of PEB?

Listing day video for those interested - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeaLO9w7SJc&t=1s

[DonkeyKong]

Has anyone gone to the trouble of calculating roughly how much existing shares will be diluted by? I don’t think I want to take full amount available but wouldn’t mind topping up to remain at status quo.

Good question.

“Approximately 59.3 million shares were sold in the Placement” https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379737

Assuming full participation in the retail offer of $20mil at $1.35. That would put it at another 14.8 million.

So in total an additional 74.1 million shares approximately.

At end of FY21 there were approximately 727 million shares issued. https://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/Investor-Files/Annual-Report-2021.pdf

So looks like approximately a 10% increase in the number of shares issued.

[thegreatestben]

Thanks DK, have applied for 10% of my current holding

[Balance]

Bugger all volumes going through ASX and sp drifting back towards $1.35.

I hope PEB has not screwed the $80m CR up with allotting the additional $20m, undermining after CR buying interest.

[LoungeLizzard]

Bugger all volumes going through ASX and sp drifting back towards $1.35.

I hope PEB has not screwed the $80m CR up with allotting the additional $20m, undermining after CR buying interest.

I'm pretty sure that's exactly what's happened. Hope they don't feel temped to do the same for the retail offer.

[t.rexjr]

Kaiser Permanente (KP)
KP started commercially using Cxbladder Monitor from December 2020, followed by Cxbladder Triage
from August 2021. Test numbers continue to grow, although momentum has been hampered by the
demands of Covid. This has impacted on patient numbers and the full electronic integration of the
Cxbladder process into Kaiser Permanente’s electronic medical records.

My bold
This to me is what the cap raise signaled. Eventual worth likely less of an issue than current value...

[Ggcc]

Bugger all volumes going through ASX and sp drifting back towards $1.35.

I hope PEB has not screwed the $80m CR up with allotting the additional $20m, undermining after CR buying interest.

This is why I won’t partake in any capital raise from this company again. I might buy some more if I see some heavy growth in sales. If not growing well enough, we may see the price close to $1 again in the not too distant future.
Good luck to all holders and people involved in the Capital raise.

[bullfrog]

This is why I won’t partake in any capital raise from this company again. I might buy some more if I see some heavy growth in sales. If not growing well enough, we may see the price close to $1 again in the not too distant future.
Good luck to all holders and people involved in the Capital raise.

I second that

[glenscape]

I second that
agree with your forecast

[LoungeLizzard]

This is why I won’t partake in any capital raise from this company again. I might buy some more if I see some heavy growth in sales. If not growing well enough, we may see the price close to $1 again in the not too distant future.
Good luck to all holders and people involved in the Capital raise.

Although, if anyone had participated in the Cap raises of the past, then they would be sitting pretty now. Despite the ups and downs those of us who have kept the faith are being handsomely rewarded. For new investors it's a different analysis - get in now on the dip or wait for the next set of results. Depends on your risk/reward ratio. Good luck to all.
Disc. Holder.

[Harrie]

While I think the long term forecast is positive I just don’t think that the increase in lab throughput and adoption by practitioners is strong enough to drive the SP in the short term. I do have a significant holding but for the reasons above, the trajectory is not strong enough for me to spend another $50k at this point IMO. The Market expectation may well exceed reality in which case the SP could easily drop back to the low $1.15/1.20 mark, until higher adoption numbers or a major medical facility uptake in the USA are confirmed.

[Balance]

While I think the long term forecast is positive I just don’t think that the increase in lab throughput and adoption by practitioners is strong enough to drive the SP in the short term. I do have a significant holding but for the reasons above, the trajectory is not strong enough for me to spend another $50k at this point IMO. The Market expectation may well exceed reality in which case the SP could easily drop back to the low $1.15/1.20 mark.

Sell $50k worth and take up the SPP at $1.35 - $1800 gain is kinda nice for a festive Christmas dinner? Some bottles of champagne for the family?

[LoungeLizzard]

While I think the long term forecast is positive I just don’t think that the increase in lab throughput and adoption by practitioners is strong enough to drive the SP in the short term. I do have a significant holding but for the reasons above, the trajectory is not strong enough for me to spend another $50k at this point IMO. The Market expectation may well exceed reality in which case the SP could easily drop back to the low $1.15/1.20 mark.

Fair comment. I bought enough to keep my holding from being diluted but that was it. SP may have gotten ahead of itself, as it does sometimes, so no big deal if there's a pull back. In the near term it sounds as though PEB is flagging that things might have stalled a bit due to Covid, but beyond that I fall into the camp that thinks PEB has huge potential if things go its way. Who dares wins.

[Balance]

Fair comment. I bought enough to keep my holding from being diluted but that was it. SP may have gotten ahead of itself, as it does sometimes, so no big deal if there's a pull back. In the near term it sounds as though PEB is flagging that things might have stalled a bit due to Covid, but beyond that I fall into the camp that thinks PEB has huge potential if things go its way. Who dares wins.

Suspect you are probably right about the short term. I had hoped that this CR, involving ASX listing & bringing in Aussie institutions, would send the sp much higher but it looks like most of the shares have been allotted to flippers.

Oh well, such is life.

[Harrie]

Or I could buy $50k worth at $1.15? balance!
And buy an even bigger xmas prezzie

[Maxtrade]

Cap raise playing with SP knocking it back a bit from where it was heading 1.59+ is an unfortunate side effect of raising so much capital as there will always be those quick profit takers out for a short term buck. Holders are the ones who genuinely can see the trajectory and path PEB is currently on. This hasn't changed with some play in the SP. The positioning of the company and what they will now be able to use this large amount of capital for will excel PEB to the next level. SP at only a buck 50 will be seen as cheap as chips soon enough when its growth really kicks off. The world will soon learn to live with Covid, medical advancements in other areas will regain focus and traction. More positive news will follow with PEB entering and becoming established in US and other new markets. The success is yet to really be seen and realised. Some traders will play their swings, selling down as they have been to try and rebuy as close to 1.35 as possible. Some of those who buy at 1.35-1.4 will only be looking for a quick 10% so might see some resistance around 1.45-1.5 for a while until these small profit gainers clear out the way. Then once that volume has sold out SP will push steadily higher with more and more good news and traction to follow. It's still early days. Seems to be a common occurrence with large cap raises. The extra $20M thrown in didn't help seeing the slide from 1.59 to where it is now. But again depends on if short sighted 8-10% profits are desired or much larger profits. Patience will play out a good fortune to those with a steady hand. This will likely be NZ's next success story company. It has taken a while to get to where they are now, but the train has left the station. When ASX kicks in within the next 6 months once the dust has settled with Cap Raise, and PEB hits headlines more in Australia, SP will be a fast train. So holders don't be disappointed if see SP dip as it has recently, and maybe even stagnate there for a while which is only logical. Once flippers clear out SP will rally strong soon enough to follow. All aboard :)

[pierre]

Spot on Maxtrade. The PEB ship will come in - not this year - but the treasure is on board for those willing to wait. A 10% gain on a quick trade (less tax of course) will look pathetic compared with what is yet to come.

The current wobbling of the SP doesn't look great but we've seen this kind of action many times before. Those trying to push the price down to score a lower entry into the SPP have left their run a bit late and it will be all over tomorrow. There's no sweat on my brow from the current SP action.

Patience Grasshopper!

[calledone]

The newsletter had a pinch of downbeat tone to it for the numbers this FY. Atleast we will be able to see the publication on Singapore trials in a few months.

[DonkeyKong]

The newsletter had a pinch of downbeat tone to it for the numbers this FY. Atleast we will be able to see the publication on Singapore trials in a few months.

Agreed.

Assuming the trial in Cairns goes well. I did think this part is exciting:

“‘We are expecting to have some results from the trial later this year, where the tests can then be used more widely across Queensland Health,’ he said.“

[Balance]

Last day for getting your SPP applications in if you are interested in getting more shares.

[Balance]

Last day for getting your SPP applications in if you are interested in getting more shares.

Sp action this morning suggests ‘SPP’ application regret as applicants (having applied) bail out of equivalent existing stock to lock in whatever profit is left in the SPP price of $1.35?

Must admit I thought of doing the same on Monday but what the heck, hardly worth the effort now.

[calledone]

Sp action this morning suggests ‘SPP’ application regret as applicants (having applied) bail out of equivalent existing stock to lock in whatever profit is left in the SPP price of $1.35?

Must admit I thought of doing the same on Monday but what the heck, hardly worth the effort now.

I was probably among the first few to apply for full the day application was made available. I don't regret it a bit as my conviction about the company's future has not changed at all but I will add I was not pleased with how this whole CR announcement was made.

[McPussPuss]

$1.35, there it is!

[thegreatestben]

Slightly annoyed with Sharesies as they communicated they needed applications in by 11am monday rather than today. They corrected this about an hour after I made my application and I'd be hesitating now tbh...

[Balance]

$1.35, there it is!

Watch carefully when ASX opens - we may see some of the $20m extra raised by PEB get flipped out now that the gains have evaporated.

PEB did the right thing taking the extra $20m on offer but from a sp perspective, it has been a bad move.

[Maxtrade]

I was probably among the first few to apply for full the day application was made available. I don't regret it a bit as my conviction about the company's future has not changed at all but I will add I was not pleased with how this whole CR announcement was made.

Yeah very poor management of the CR. You would think those in management would have a little better understanding of how markets work. They should have left the demand there which would have netted the same results with inflowing demand while pushing the SP and value of the company up simultaneously. The extra $20M released should have been left to the retail offer. Now there will be a drag on the SP to get rid of those extra traders that bought in at $1.35 just looking to make money on the post CR bounce and not actually investing in the company itself and it's future. Anyway it's probably just slowed SP progression and momentum down until the mud gets kicked off it's boots. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 1.30 tested as quick profit takers realise they may not be getting their quick profits that soon after all. Which obviously won't be the best for the instos and retail investors who bought in at 1.35, as the 5 day average won't be any lower even if it were to drop to 1.30 today. I guess those who held off on the offer were waiting to see if would drop below 1.35. If does touch down to 1.30 I would suspect to see a surge of buyers enter. Knowing will likely quickly bounce back uo 1.35 following a short dip. Hover for a while then slowly trudge it's way through the mud north into clearer waters again.

[Maxtrade]

Watch carefully when ASX opens - we may see some of the $20m extra raised by PEB get flipped out now that the gains have evaporated.

PEB did the right thing taking the extra $20m on offer but from a sp perspective, it has been a bad move.

Yep they screwed up in terms of looking after shareholders and SP by throwing an extra 20 million on the table. But like you say good for the company to have those funds to put to work. But only really applicable to longer term holders rather than traders. The battle of the short-term traders versus true believers in PEB's medical advancements and where they are heading. I wish investing was still actually investing in a company. It's almost like traders need to have their own division in a company separate from actual investors in the company. I know that is not realistically achievable but wouldn't that be great! Stocks in company shouldn't be seen as a quick buck or gambling, it should be investing in a company and it's future.

[Balance]

Yep they screwed up in terms of looking after shareholders and SP by throwing an extra 20 million on the table. But like you say good for the company to have those funds to put to work. But only really applicable to longer term holders rather than traders. The battle of the short-term traders versus true believers in PEB's medical advancements and where they are heading. I wish investing was still actually investing in a company. It's almost like traders need to have their own division in a company separate from actual investors in the company. I know that is not realistically achievable but wouldn't that be great! Stocks in company shouldn't be seen as a quick buck or gambling, it should be investing in a company and it's future.

I don't look at it that way myself.

Traders can add depth & liquidity o a stock and there have been many a time when I have bought cheap and plenty from traders.

The answer for PEB & similar companies to avoid volatility is to access the private equity market but that's easier said than done for high risk biomedical & biotech companies.

[Balance]

Yeah very poor management of the CR. You would think those in management would have a little better understanding of how markets work. They should have left the demand there which would have netted the same results with inflowing demand while pushing the SP and value of the company up simultaneously. The extra $20M released should have been left to the retail offer. Now there will be a drag on the SP to get rid of those extra traders that bought in at $1.35 just looking to make money on the post CR bounce and not actually investing in the company itself and it's future. Anyway it's probably just slowed SP progression and momentum down until the mud gets kicked off it's boots. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 1.30 tested as quick profit takers realise they may not be getting their quick profits that soon after all. Which obviously won't be the best for the instos and retail investors who bought in at 1.35, as the 5 day average won't be any lower even if it were to drop to 1.30 today. I guess those who held off on the offer were waiting to see if would drop below 1.35. If does touch down to 1.30 I would suspect to see a surge of buyers enter. Knowing will likely quickly bounce back uo 1.35 following a short dip. Hover for a while then slowly trudge it's way through the mud north into clearer waters again.

As long as PEB delivers whatever it articulated to the Aussie institutions now on its register due to the CR.

We do not want to see a PX1 type situation as the Aussie institutions are not as committed as NZ shareholders have been.

[t.rexjr]

It was written...

I don't see the raise as a screw up at all... The board acted in the best interests of the Company. Revising the placement price upward was made possible by eager investors. You'll likely find about the same number of shares were issued but the difference in strike price netted more capital... If punters coughed up $$ to early that's an issue for the punter, not the company. It's one of the few instances where shareholders interests and the companies interests don't align. The whole point of having a listed company is to access capital. Job well done

I'm expecting more softening to come. That's a hunch, no agenda. I've a small holding to keep my interest...

[Maxtrade]

It was written...

I don't see the raise as a screw up at all... The board acted in the best interests of the Company. Revising the placement price upward was made possible by eager investors. You'll likely find about the same number of shares were issued but the difference in strike price netted more capital... If punters coughed up $$ to early that's an issue for the punter, not the company. It's one of the few instances where shareholders interests and the companies interests don't align. The whole point of having a listed company is to access capital. Job well done

I'm expecting more softening to come. That's a hunch, no agenda. I've a small holding to keep my interest...

Yeah not a lot of support on the buy side of ASX currently. Surely won't see a fall back to 1.2 AUD though?? If so would likely find a bottom there and be very brief followed by a rally to follow suit then?

Down 7.5% on ASX currently. Who knows, maybe it will test 1.2 AUD by tomorrow?? Will be prepared for a rally if there is a bit of a brief sell off dipping to this level.

[jridler]

It was written...

I don't see the raise as a screw up at all... The board acted in the best interests of the Company. Revising the placement price upward was made possible by eager investors. You'll likely find about the same number of shares were issued but the difference in strike price netted more capital... If punters coughed up $$ to early that's an issue for the punter, not the company. It's one of the few instances where shareholders interests and the companies interests don't align. The whole point of having a listed company is to access capital. Job well done

I'm expecting more softening to come. That's a hunch, no agenda. I've a small holding to keep my interest...

It is the way of things...I hope that all investors came into it with the expectation that the SP would retreat to the CR price, even if for a short time. It doesn't particularly help that markets are a bit wobbly right now. If there is $100m+ (we'll see where the SPP lands up) worth of stock purchased at $1.35 then that *should* provide a stable base for the SP. It is on the company now to deliver against future growth targets/aspirations with war-chest in hand. I disagree with the musing that this capital is cover for w/cap only, given historical cash-burn rates.

[t.rexjr]

Yeah not a lot of support on the buy side of ASX currently. Surely won't see a fall back to 1.2 AUD though?? If so would likely find a bottom there and be very brief followed by a rally to follow suit then?

It needs confirmation of test throughput. Until uptake momentum is proven it's all pie in the sky. The latest release stated there are issues so... expect a level of disappointment and be surprised if testing #'s have any hint of going exponential. Not the other way around. Would you place a win bet on a foal if it has potential to only pay 90c to the dollar?

[Maxtrade]

Does anyone know when the retail shares allocation will de dispersed and likely start seeing some volume of them getting traded (flipped) out on market??

[thegreatestben]

My applications been accepted, nothing close to the maximum. Sharesies said should be there by end of October which isn’t very specific.

[Balance]

Does anyone know when the retail shares allocation will de dispersed and likely start seeing some volume of them getting traded (flipped) out on market??

Doubt there will be flippers from the SPP - it's like a rights issue to conviction shareholders adding to their position.

The greater likelihood is the $20m extra shares issued by PEB being sold out as they are 'surplus' to intention. Anyone bidding for stock in a placement usually put in more in expectation of being scaled back - except PEB decided to give them all they wanted!

Note the sp on ASX dipped below $1.35 yesterday?

[Beat the Bank]

Does anyone know when the retail shares allocation will de dispersed and likely start seeing some volume of them getting traded (flipped) out on market??

Allotment is on 20 October. They withdrew all your funds upon application and refund the unsuccessful portion after allotment. It can be super annoying when you rejigg your finances only to have most it all of it refunded

[Maxtrade]

Doubt there will be flippers from the SPP - it's like a rights issue to conviction shareholders adding to their position.

The greater likelihood is the $20m extra shares issued by PEB being sold out as they are 'surplus' to intention. Anyone bidding for stock in a placement usually put in more in expectation of being scaled back - except PEB decided to give them all they wanted!

Note the sp on ASX dipped below $1.35 yesterday?

Thanks Balance. No sign yet of that extra $20M (surplus) being on sold on yet, or would that likely happen off market and not be reflected in the current market depth? Or would that potentially be yet to come after the SP is monitored to see what it is doing after the retail offer shares are allotted?

[Balance]

Thanks Balance. No sign yet of that extra $20M (surplus) being on sold on yet, or would that likely happen off market and not be reflected in the current market depth? Or would that potentially be yet to come after the SP is monitored to see what it is doing after the retail offer shares are allotted?

I think the flippers have already been selling. Note how the sp was sold down to $1.35 at the close?

It is what it is - as long as PEB delivers, the sp will do its thing.

[Greekwatchdog]

Exactly Balance. Its all about execution from here. Just sit tight and suck up the sad times and rejoice the good times..

[Greekwatchdog]

Retail offer 300% over subscribed. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381166

[thegreatestben]

PEB investors:
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/264/241/9e9.gif

[Rochem]

Retail offer 300% over subscribed. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381166

My first post! Well what an endorsement from shareholders!
I've been invested in PEB for quite a while now and looking forward to the future with it as my largest investment.

[zs_cecil]

From now on PEB should not have any excuses of not executing it's growth strategy well. It has already had its best cash position ever.

[pierre]

Retail offer 300% over subscribed. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381166

That is a pretty amazing outcome and means PEB could have raised a total of $160m if they had accepted all applications.

Anyway, they have raised $103.5m from this exercise, so let's hope they invest it wisely and we see some exponential growth in business activity over the coming year.

Maybe we soon might also see some of the disappointed punters investing their returned cash in buying on-market and giving the SP a northward nudge.

I'm sure there is an interesting year ahead for all PEB holders.

[whatsup]

Retail offer 300% over subscribed. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381166

$103,500,000 raised in the current C R, that has to be N Z biggest c r outside a cash issue I think, gone are the days of yaw when they wanted to raise $10,000,000 if PEB cannot make it now into a world brand it never will imo!!!

[LoungeLizzard]

Pretty good vote of confidence from Institutions and retail investors alike. We can't all be wrong surely?:)

[DonkeyKong]

Retail offer 300% over subscribed. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381166

The wording is a bit confusing to me:

“The acceptance of the oversubscription allows all applicants to receive the minimum of their application or their pro-rata allocation up to the NZ$50,000 maximum under the Offer”

What are others interpreting it as? That we will get 23.5/80 of our applications? ie just under 30% of our application?

[Merc]

Last year Auckland Airport offered something similar.

My brother and I had equal shares (thanks Dad!)

He applied for the maximum, me less.

I got what I asked for (and as it turned out I could have applied for twice as many.)

The Kid brother applied for the maximum, got more than me... then a refund for the extra.

[Sehnsucht888]

The offer document had this:
"If Applications are scaled, PEL will scale back the number of shares to be allotted under this Offer to each applicant having regard to the number of shares held by the applicant at the Record Date and otherwise at its discretion (see clause 8 of the Terms)."

So the more shares you had, the more you will get compared to someone else who applied for the same amount...
Although they can also do what ever they want.... :-/

[Maxtrade]

Retail offer 300% over subscribed. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381166

Seems like a pretty solid base settled in at 1.35 as expected. Good to see hasn't been any large volume sell off of excess after SPP. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow with the allotment, and the next couple of days to see if there were many traders who were just hoping for a pop in SP that might put excess shares on market after the allotment. Might see sell volumes increase around the 1.4-1.45 level cashing out if so. If it does think it would be a pretty safe bet that 1.35 will hold even if there is some downwards pressure momentarily.

[Balance]

Retail offer 300% over subscribed. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381166

The significance of the level of over-subscription at a retail level imo is that there's plenty of money sitting on the sideline, waiting to buy the stock in the event of positive news.

[Harrie]

The significance of the level of over-subscription at a retail level imo is that there's plenty of money sitting on the sideline, waiting to buy the stock in the event of positive news.
That would be a poor strategy if that's what you are waiting for. Substantial positive news will just re rate the SP way above the point it finished at prior to the release of that news....with no trades , (or a lucky few catching those who had not withdrawn a sell price) in-between. With a stock like this best to buy now if you really believe that positive news is on its way and pick up all of the increased value.
The other side of this is what if an announcement does not match market expectations? Thats the time to hold cash to buy at a lower price off panicking short term traders as long as you have a positive long view.

[McPussPuss]

My allocation now appears in my LINK account, (I wasn't notified about it).

Received 75% of my application.

[jridler]

My allocation now appears in my LINK account, (I wasn't notified about it).

Applied for 15000 shares and got 11173
I was also pleasantly surprised with the number allocated. Seems that PEB have allocated pro-rata based on shareholding before the rights issue.

[tango]

I didn't apply because my weighted average cost is 46 cents so I'm sitting with what I have and waiting for the next piece of good news.

[t.rexjr]

That would be a poor strategy if that's what you are waiting for. Substantial positive news will just re rate the SP way above the point it finished at prior to the release of that news....with no trades , (or a lucky few catching those who had not withdrawn a sell price) in-between. With a stock like this best to buy now if you really believe that positive news is on its way and pick up all of the increased value.
The other side of this is what if an announcement does not match market expectations? Thats the time to hold cash to buy at a lower price off panicking short term traders as long as you have a positive long view.

There's investing... and then there's gambling...

[Beat the Bank]

I was also pleasantly surprised with the number allocated. Seems that PEB have allocated pro-rata based on shareholding before the rights issue.
Did you get 10.16% of your current holding? That is what I got by the looks of it. (on LINK account) Must be the pro-rata rate. Meanwhile, non investors got more and make a quick killing and mess with our share price. This seems to have happened so often recently with share issues that disappoint after managing your funds to have cash on hand just to get refunds back.

[thegreatestben]

Still waiting for sharesies to come through but it seems that I'm getting what I asked for.

[Sehnsucht888]

Did you get 10.16% of your current holding? That is what I got by the looks of it. (on LINK account) Must be the pro-rata rate. Meanwhile, non investors got more and make a quick killing and mess with our share price. This seems to have happened so often recently with share issues that disappoint after managing your funds to have cash on hand just to get refunds back.


That is what I got... Yeah, quite frustrating to have the other funds locked up like this - another week too.
And pretty shty treatment for retail holders..

[iamaskier]

That is what I got... Yeah, quite frustrating to have the other funds locked up like this - another week too.
And pretty shty treatment for retail holders..

That's what I got also. Someone on here had helpfully worked out the likely scaling and it turns out they were bang-on so the excess I have tied up is minimal.

[McPussPuss]

I'm shocked to see that the excess has been refunded already! Very prompt.

[thegreatestben]

I did get what I asked for, rounded down 5c to make it a whole number of shares.

[FrankF]

Yes, I also got 10.15% of my current holding.

[DonkeyKong]

I did get what I asked for, rounded down 5c to make it a whole number of shares.

Given people seem to be getting the lesser of their application amount or roughly 10% of their holdings as the allocation.

That would make sense for you Ben. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd&p=916248&viewfull=1#post916248

[thegreatestben]

Lucky guess eh!

[blu3]

I asked for 5000 shares and I guess it must have been too many since I got ony 500.

[jridler]

Did you get 10.16% of your current holding? That is what I got by the looks of it. (on LINK account) Must be the pro-rata rate. Meanwhile, non investors got more and make a quick killing and mess with our share price. This seems to have happened so often recently with share issues that disappoint after managing your funds to have cash on hand just to get refunds back.
Yes, 10.16%.

[ecuttel]

Ditto 10.16% of original holding... Cheers DonkeyKong pretty much on the money with your 10% calculation ..... so i have little extra tied up waiting for a refund

[whatsup]

S Hers who missed out on their SPP pouring the refunds back into the market at current prices shows good belief in the companies future imo.

[thegreatestben]

Looks like DD got his share @ $1.35

[Balance]

Looks like DD got his share @ $1.35

As you would expect him to, getting the full $50k, given the number of shares he holds!

[thegreatestben]

Absolutely! Can't blame him.

Sharesies has finally finished processing, full amount now showing. Now we wait for PEB to do it's thing :)

[Balance]

Encouraging to see the sp recovering from the $1.35 low reached last week - looks like the severe scaling back of the SPP has worked well, as opposed to the over allocation of stock in the $80m placement.

Wonder how many of the $60m scaled back bids in the SPP are buying on market.

[Ho Lee Kow]

Balance, if the Pro rata rate was 10% of holding then DD could have got his allocation through the Brokerage placement (open to any clients of the Lead brokerages with >450K shares).. Just saying

[thegreatestben]

The new boss sounds like a top man!

[Retired Doc]

Yes indeed. A highly appropriate pedigree.

[Count von Count]

This seems to be a great get for PEB. Certainly has the technical chops to guide PEB.

[pierre]

[QUOTE=Count von Count;920940]This seems to be a great get for PEB. Certainly has the technical chops to guide PEB.[/QUOTE

Yep, this looks like a great appointment.

Peter Meintjes comes in with the benefit of the big bag of loot gathered up recently by DD, and with his knowledge, skills and experience is sure to make wise decisions on where those dollars should be invested.

I'm sure it wont be too long before we see some real runs on the board for PEB but we would probably all be pretty happy if he simply started by replicating his previous history of generating compound annual revenue growth of 75%!

Thanks to DD for getting the company ready for launch (aiming for the moon was a much bigger project than most of us realised) and best of luck to Dr Meintjes for a successful take-off.

Exciting times ahead IMHO.

Bonne chance to holders.

[Riskkiwi]

with COVID here for good and continued strains on hospital capacity globally hopefully we get high adopation rates sooner rather than later and a reason to stay long

[850man]

Hmm.... wonder what's up with PEB? Reasonable bit of press here but SP down 4c in a bit of a sell off http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/382573/358935.pdf

[LoungeLizzard]

Hmm.... wonder what's up with PEB? Reasonable bit of press here but SP down 4c in a bit of a sell off http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/382573/358935.pdf

I don't think 4c is a sell-off. Just normal ebb and flow of share price waiting for the next ramp up.

[Maxtrade]

I don't think 4c is a sell-off. Just normal ebb and flow of share price waiting for the next ramp up.

Wouldn't be surprised if we see SP drift back to the Cap Raise 1.35, maybe even slightly below before 'bargain hunters' top up holdings and get the next leg up after that. If touches on 1.35 or bit below then a positive update is announced then we will likely see previous highs reached again. Seems pretty normal activity for growth companies after cap raises.

[Brain]

Wouldn't be surprised if we see SP drift back to the Cap Raise 1.35, maybe even slightly below before 'bargain hunters' top up holdings and get the next leg up after that. If touches on 1.35 or bit below then a positive update is announced then we will likely see previous highs reached again. Seems pretty normal activity for growth companies after cap raises.

Yes The snake needs to digest the rat before it can feed again

[Maxtrade]

Yes The snake needs to digest the rat before it can feed again

Filtering out those who were just in it to make a quick buck off the Cap Raise. Often happens, happy with their 5-10% gain. Once those traders clear out the way would suspect SP will find a lot of support ~1.35 (maybe briefly touch a little lower), then will be able to take natural course for longer term investors to then push SP higher with more positive updates in the works. Not really a surprise or anything to be concerned about that it has settled back to ~1.35.

[Maxtrade]

Filtering out those who were just in it to make a quick buck off the Cap Raise. Often happens, happy with their 5-10% gain. Once those traders clear out the way would suspect SP will find a lot of support ~1.35 (maybe briefly touch a little lower), then will be able to take natural course for longer term investors to then push SP higher with more positive updates in the works. Not really a surprise or anything to be concerned about that it has settled back to ~1.35.

No news good news? Anybody know anything. SP just set to hover around the $1.35 level, maybe slowly leak a bit below before get any positive updates/advancements?

[Ex-CFO]

No worry. I expect the company to perform better now that they have appointed an experience new CEO. I would be interested to know what the new CEO is going to do with the $100m in the bank and how is he going to grow the business to ensure that the EBITDA is positive. Hopefully, they will disclose all that on 25th Nov when they announce the half year results.

[tango]

Yes, I am looking forward to the results.

[pierre]

Exactly one month before Christmas and PEB deliver their half year result today.
Will this be an early Christmas pressie for all those who tossed $100m into the company's bank account recently - or another announcement that Santa and his team have been delayed by Covid - again?
I sincerely hope there wont be too much disappointment for investors when the package is unwrapped this morning.

[tango]

PACIFIC EDGE RESULTS FOR SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2021
Pacific Edge reports continued strong revenue growth despite continuing
impact of Covid-19

Unaudited results for the six months ended 30 September 2021 (1H22)
Summary of performance for the period (% changes compared to prior
comparative period (pcp)):

o Total revenue increased 66% to $6.7m
o Operating revenue from test sales increased 62% to $5.4m
o Total Laboratory Throughput increased 62% to 11,136 tests
o Commercial Test volumes increased 64% to 9,192 tests
o Cash Receipts from Customers increased 110% to $5.4m
o Total operating expenses increased 41% on pcp to $15.7m
o Net Loss After Tax increased 27% to $9.0m
o Net cash, cash equivalents and short-term deposits were $91.6m (which
excludes the $23.5m raised in the Retail Offer completed in October 2021)
o Growth in the US sales force from 16 to 28 (+75%) and the addition of two
new sales territories
o Publication of clinical evidence key to supporting use of multiple
Cxbladder products and Pacific Edge's Patient In-Home Sampling System (PIHSS)

o Conducted successful $103.5m capital raise and dual listed on ASX
o Well positioned to capitalise on commercial milestones as Covid-19
restrictions ease, with a strong balance sheet and scaled up operations in
the U.S.

[winner69]

Every one happy then

[tango]

It's a great result. Just need to find out what costs increased to better understand the results but presumably increasing sales team, dual listing and retail offer contributed

[850man]

Good news overall - Money coming in, test volumes increasing, supportive feedback in medical journals, more USA sales effort and a push underway into Aust and Asia. Looks to me like a good course plotted and being followed.

[t.rexjr]

Every one happy then

Depends if the total laboratory throughput of 11,136 tests is considered widespread adoption...

[tango]

Depends if the total laboratory throughput of 11,136 tests is considered widespread adoption...

Nah. That’s just the start…

I need to check and see if they published forward projections

[tango]

Here is the rest of the announcement

Cancer diagnostics business, Pacific Edge Limited (NZX/ASX: PEB) has reported
continuing growth for the six months ended 30 September 2021 (1H22), with key
performance metrics significantly ahead of the same time last year, driven by
reimbursement milestones, increasing insurance coverage and adoption by
urologists and healthcare organisations.

CEO of Pacific Edge, David Darling, commented: "The momentum seen in 2H21 has
continued with growth in test volumes, sales and cash receipts. This is
particularly pleasing given the resurgence in Covid-19 restrictions due to
the spread of the Delta variant, which further restricted access to clinics
and urologists for both patients and for our sales people in both the U.S.
and New Zealand. As Covid-19 restrictions are lifted and access improves, we
expect to see a positive impact on our business.

"With a restructured balance sheet and significant cash resources now in
hand, we continue to focus on scaling up our commercial operations to
accelerate our growth in the U.S. and other targeted markets. We continue to
make good progress as we position our Cxbladder suite of tests as the
diagnostic product of choice for urologists and patients. The clinical
evidence supporting the outperformance of our products, growing endorsement
by key opinion leaders and our first mover advantage all serve to provide a
strong competitive advantage for our business."

In particular, the recent clinical papers published in the leading Journal of
Urology, highlight a pivotal shift in clinical utility from, firstly, an
increase in clinical resolution from the combined use of multiple Cxbladder
tests for each patient presenting with haematuria and, secondly, the gain in
clinical utility from Pacific Edge's PIHSS for management of patients outside
the clinic. These publications are expected to provide added impetus to the
adoption of Cxbladder by urologists and healthcare organisations.

1H FY22 Financial Result Summary

Total Revenue increased 66% to $6.7m and Operating Revenue from Cxbladder
sales increased 62% on the prior comparative period (pcp) to $5.4m. This
record result reflects the continued positive impact from the commercial
milestones achieved in 1H21, particularly LCD inclusion for Cxbladder Monitor
and Cxbladder Triage from 1 July 2020 as well as growing adoption and use by
urologists and healthcare organisations.

Total Laboratory Throughput (TLT) increased 62% on pcp and 24% on the prior
six month period (2H FY21) to 11,136 tests.

Commercial test volumes increased 64% on pcp and 24% on the prior six month
period (2H FY21) to 9,192 tests, and accounted for 83% of TLT (up from 82% in
FY21).

The U.S. market accounted for 81% of TLT, 81% of commercial test volumes and
93% of operating revenue. CMS related tests (Medicare and Medicare Advantage)
accounted for 65% of total U.S. commercial test volumes. Cxbladder Detect and
Cxbladder Monitor (the two Cxbladder tests included in the LCD) accounted for
95% of total U.S. commercial test volumes.

Cash receipts from customers increased 110% on pcp to $5.4m, reflecting the
positive impact of cash reimbursement from the CMS and increased volumes.

Operating expenses increased 41% on pcp to $15.7m as the company invested for
growth, and particularly the sales and marketing efforts in the US.

For the six month period, Pacific Edge reported a Net Loss After Tax of
$9.0m, an increase of 27% on pcp.

The recent capital raise of $103.5m has significantly strengthened the
Company's balance sheet. As at 30 September 2021, net cash, cash equivalents
and short term deposits were $91.6m (which excludes the $23.5m raised in the
Retail Offer that was completed post-period end in October 2021).

Commercial Progress

The company continues to achieve commercial milestones as it progresses its
global growth strategy. In particular, in 1H22, Pacific Edge reported:

o Growth in the US sales force from 16 to 28 (75%) and the addition of two
new sales territories
o Commercial adoption of second Cxbladder product (Cxbladder Triage) by
Kaiser Permanente
o Expansion of coverage in New Zealand, with Northland and Taranaki public
healthcare providers (DHBs) adopting Cxbladder into use taking the total
coverage to more than 70% of New Zealand's population
o Acceptance of an important clinical paper outlining the significant
increase in clinical resolution that can be achieved from using multiple
Cxbladder products in the evaluation of a patient presenting to the clinic
with haematuria
o Publication of real world lookback study in the U.S, highlighting the
clinical utility of Cxbladder in a Covid19 setting for managing patients
outside the clinic
o Analysis of results from Singapore study on-track for publication in early
2022. This will form the basis of Pacific Edge's planned commercial rollout
in Southeast Asia, which is expected to become a market of scale for
Cxbladder over time similar to the U.S
o Dual listing on the ASX in September 2021
o Completion of successful $103.5 million capital raise to enable the company
to capitalise on recent commercial milestones and to accelerate the execution
of its global growth strategy in markets of scale
o In October 2021, announced the appointment of new CEO, Dr Peter Meintjes,
who will commence in the role in January 2022.

Outlook

Pacific Edge has a positive outlook for FY22 and beyond and is well
positioned to capitalise on the opportunities available to the company.

The U.S. market remains the primary focus and continued growth is expected
once Covid-19 restrictions ease. The scaled up U.S. commercial operations
provide the capacity and resource to drive growth opportunities and positive
results from this investment are now starting to be seen. The U.S. sales team
grew to 28 experienced sales representatives over the last year, with 30
sales reps expected to be operating by end-November.

The focus for FY22 is on growing the commercial adoption of Cxbladder by
Kaiser Permanente and other large healthcare organisations, further
increasing reimbursement coverage from private payers, and achieving a
positive shift in guideline inclusion language following the publication of
new clinical evidence further supporting the clinical utility of Cxbladder.

Full integration into Kaiser's patient referral system and Electronic Medical
Records has yet to be concluded and continues to constrain the growth rate
expected from this important customer. Despite this, commercial test numbers
continue to grow.

The recent clinical papers supporting the combined use of multiple Cxbladder
products will further evolve how urothelial cancer is diagnosed and managed,
with Cxbladder once again leading the way and delivering a greatly enriched
clinical proposition for urologists. These papers also provide additional
support in favour of inclusion in guidelines and national standards, which
remains a key component that will drive widespread adoption of Cxbladder.

Pacific Edge's rest of world markets - New Zealand, Australia and Singapore -
are markets of strategic importance, with tailored plans being executed
dependent on each market's commercial maturity.

Chairman of Pacific Edge, Chris Gallaher, said: "Pacific Edge's growth
momentum over the last six months, despite the ongoing headwinds from
Covid19, confirms the validity of our global growth strategy and the way we
go to market. We have a committed and experienced team, with significant
funding in place to allow us to scale up and to deliver revenue growth and
value creation for our shareholders in FY22 and beyond. We are confident in
our future and the actions we are taking now are positioning us to accelerate
our growth trajectory once Covid-19 restrictions ease."

[Maxtrade]

Every one happy then

Not everyone it seems. 180,000 at 1.35?? Seems an odd sell with that update wouldn't you say?

Why the strong sell orders guys? The markets don't make sense sometimes. Doesn't this update read as positive?

[psychic]

Depends if the total laboratory throughput of 11,136 tests is considered widespread adoption...

Agree. Results just do not support claims of meaningful adoption.
At least they now have the funds to tread water for a few more years but a whole lot of hope built into that SP.:eek2:

[tango]

Not everyone it seems. 110,000 at 1.36?? Seems an odd sell with that update wouldn't you say?

I was watching the match price.
Early this morning it was 138, then 137, now 136

Let's see what happens in 5 minutes.

I think bottom line is it's a good result but still a way to go.

Given COVID closed access to hospitals I think it's an excellent result.
Once Kaiser sort out their computer integration things should be on the up

[tango]

Oops and now match price 135

[Maxtrade]

Agree. Results just do not support claims of meaningful adoption.
At least they now have the funds to tread water for a few more years but a whole lot of hope built into that SP.:eek2:

Ok good point. Yes the adoption isn't showing in the figures yet. So I guess that's where some sellers are focusing on. Bit of unknown hope I guess, but generally a positive report. If people hadn't waited for adoption of Cryptos when they were doubters, they would be far better off now right ;)

Unfortunately the market doesn't seem to be liking the news much this morning currently though. Was on the side of the fence that it would be a positive feeling a push SP back up to recent highs in the 1.5's :(

[Rochem]

Ok good point. Yes the adoption isn't showing in the figures yet. So I guess that's where some sellers are focusing on. Bit of unknown hope I guess, but generally a positive report. If people hadn't waited for adoption of Cryptos when they were doubters, they would be far better off now right ;)

Unfortunately the market doesn't seem to be liking the news much this morning currently though. Was on the side of the fence that it would be a positive feeling a push SP back up to recent highs in the 1.5's :(

Only a few loose hands have sold, let's see what happens throughout the day. I am happy with the result.

[tango]

Ok good point. Yes the adoption isn't showing in the figures yet. So I guess that's where some sellers are focusing on. Bit of unknown hope I guess, but generally a positive report. If people hadn't waited for adoption of Cryptos when they were doubters, they would be far better off now right ;)

Unfortunately the market doesn't seem to be liking the news much this morning currently though. Was on the side of the fence that it would be a positive feeling a push SP back up to recent highs in the 1.5's :(

I was thinking the news would push the SP back up to early 140s
Let's see what DD has to say at 1030am. Unfortunately I will be in a meeting but hopefully there is something positive in the forward projections

[psychic]

I know the focus is the US, but isn't it worrying to see that in NZ, where they actually have the support of most of the DHB's (albeit at about 1/4 of the price charged per test), where they are actually using the full suite of Cxbladder tests and are in the clinical pathway, that sales here amounted to a miserable $900k for the six months compared to $2.1m the full year before?

[psychic]

A billion dollar Company with sales of $5m for six months. This after apparent CMS approval, Kaiser, United, blah de blah.
Insane

[Rochem]

Total Revenue increased 66%
Total Laboratory Throughput (TLT) increased 62%
Commercial test volumes increased 64%
Cash receipts from customers increased 110%
Operating expenses increased 41%
$100m in the bank

[zs_cecil]

I know the focus is the US, but isn't it worrying to see that in NZ, where they actually have the support of most of the DHB's (albeit at about 1/4 of the price charged per test), where they are actually using the full suite of Cxbladder tests and are in the clinical pathway, that sales here amounted to a miserable $900k for the six months compared to $2.1m the full year before?

I think your number is incorrect. The sales from the rest of the World (mainly from DHBs) in FY21 was 813k. And The cxBladder is not yet supported by most of DHBs.

[bullfrog]

A billion dollar Company with sales of $5m for six months. This after apparent CMS approval, Kaiser, United, blah de blah.
Insane

Yep, scarily low figures for revenue for the MC

[Greekwatchdog]

Yep, scarily low figures for revenue for the MC

So explain why Xero is valued so highly when it makes so little.
Market see's forward not backwards. If you under perform on what market wants share price reacts accordingly.

[psychic]

Total Revenue increased 66%
Total Laboratory Throughput (TLT) increased 62%
Commercial test volumes increased 64%
Cash receipts from customers increased 110%
Operating expenses increased 41%
$100m in the bank


Off a low base, SP has hockey stick growth priced in and up 800% in 18 months on back of 4 annoucements I suggested were misleading. I think these results demonstate that.

[Maxtrade]

Off a low base, SP has hockey stick growth priced in and up 800% in 18 months on back of 4 annoucements I suggested were misleading. I think these results demonstate that.

Not a lot of buying side support currently. This that took part in the Cap Raise 1.35 will be starting to wonder if they did the right thing?

Thank goodness for the 2 buyers coming in at 1.33, without those just entering was on it's way down to 1.30

[psychic]

I think your number is incorrect. The sales from the rest of the World (mainly from DHBs) in FY21 was 813k. And The cxBladder is not yet supported by most of DHBs.

70% of nz population covered for cxbladder tests by their local dhb? PE call it a majority.
The financial accounts record NZ op Rev $915k for the six months, $2.133m for 12 months to 31 March

[850man]

Not a lot of buying side support currently. This that took part in the Cap Raise 1.35 will be starting to wonder if they did the right thing?

Thank goodness for the 2 buyers coming in at 1.33, without those just entering was on it's way down to 1.30

Wonder if some sellers were in this for a quick profit and have sold when that hasn't materialised. It is a slow cook in the medical field at the best of times. The trajectory is heading in the right direction including building revenue.
13247

[tango]

Not a lot of buying side support currently. This that took part in the Cap Raise 1.35 will be starting to wonder if they did the right thing?

Thank goodness for the 2 buyers coming in at 1.33, without those just entering was on it's way down to 1.30

Happy to say I passed on the latest SPP. The price wasn’t enough of a discount t

[Maxtrade]

Happy to say I passed on the latest SPP. The price wasn’t enough of a discount t

Yeah I did the same. I would say most in for a quick profit have since sold out. Likely will see a wave of support entering if SP drops into the high 1.2 range. Those that didn't participate in the SPP are likely looking to enter 1.25-1.29. Whether or not it reaches these levels today is unlikely but who knows. An entry of 1.25 would be pretty hard for most to pass up at this point. There is still a lot of positivity in this report that seems to be overlooked. Yes it is a growth stock. They are still in growth phase. Adoption is low but working in the right direction. I will be looking to top up further if touches anywhere near 1.25, but I wouldn't hold my breath that would reach that low. Be interesting to see how the rest of the day plays out and where support kicks in. Not much support on the buy side right now though !

[jridler]

My notes from the investor call for those that were not able to make it. Last for Dave.



General theme, and comment made a number of times: Not moving as quickly as they would like in this “pandemic world”. Similar comments made during FY21 call.
Increase from 19 to 21 sales territories in US.
Access to hospitals and clinics restricted due to COVID-19.
Current situation has led the company to be “creative” in provision of service and scaling – virtual selling, in-home sampling, remote working, etc.
Scaling sales force further, lifting to 30 by end of this month from current of 28 (committed to this further in the questions).
KP resources diverted elsewhere during COVID-19, although have adopted second Cxb product.
Not expecting rampant growth from KP until system integration has been completed, which is proceeding slowly due to resource constraints on KP side reportedly.
KP enjoying the technology of PEB’s products.
Continuing to see month on month growth, no numbers specified.
Cagey about identifying “next KP”.
Expecting to see ROI from sales force coming on board, although there is a lagging effect here.


I also find the pcp comparison to not be entirely instructive as the second half of FY21 was momentous for PEB. A comparison of 2H21 (FY21 less 1H21) vs 1H22 shows that operating revenue has increased 22.9% across these most recent 6 month periods. This compared with the 62% pcp increase in operating revenue for 1H21 vs 1H22.

Overall, still happy and still holding.

[tango]

My notes from the investor call for those that were not able to make it. Last for Dave.



General theme, and comment made a number of times: Not moving as quickly as they would like in this “pandemic world”. Similar comments made during FY21 call.
Increase from 19 to 21 sales territories in US.
Access to hospitals and clinics restricted due to COVID-19.
Current situation has led the company to be “creative” in provision of service and scaling – virtual selling, in-home sampling, remote working, etc.
Scaling sales force further, lifting to 30 by end of this month from current of 28 (committed to this further in the questions).
KP resources diverted elsewhere during COVID-19, although have adopted second Cxb product.
Not expecting rampant growth from KP until system integration has been completed, which is proceeding slowly due to resource constraints on KP side reportedly.
KP enjoying the technology of PEB’s products.
Continuing to see month on month growth, no numbers specified.
Cagey about identifying “next KP”.
Expecting to see ROI from sales force coming on board, although there is a lagging effect here.


I also find the pcp comparison to not be entirely instructive as the second half of FY21 was momentous for PEB. A comparison of 2H21 (FY21 less 1H21) vs 1H22 shows that operating revenue has increased 22.9% across these most recent 6 month periods. This compared with the 62% pcp increase in operating revenue for 1H21 vs 1H22.

Overall, still happy and still holding.

Thanks for the update. The company is in a strong position and the new CEO should be well placed to continue building the company’s sales pipeline

[Maxtrade]

Some pretty big sales happening off market currently, for example 661,000 shares @ $1.32. What to make of this?

Also looks as soon as bids are building up descent sell orders are coming through 20,000, 40,000 at a time. Looks like some larger holders are selling down. Maybe SP will get battered down to ~1.25 before finding support :/

The market is surprisingly downbeat after todays update, over reacting?

[tango]

Some pretty big sales happening off market currently, for example 661,000 shares @ $1.32. What to make of this?

Also looks as soon as bids are building up descent sell orders are coming through 20,000, 40,000 at a time. Looks like some larger holders are selling down. Maybe SP will get battered down to ~1.25 before finding support :/

The market is surprisingly downbeat after todays update, over reacting?

The brokers usually drip feed in large orders so you could be right on a sell down. Could even be DD now that he has given his final meeting. Time for him to cash up and retire
He has 4.6m shares to cash out. Maybe he's selling most and keeping a million for old times sake

[tango]

The good news is that there are buyers out there for 661,000 shares. Clearly some decent sized investors wanting in

[Maxtrade]

The good news is that there are buyers out there for 661,000 shares. Clearly some decent sized investors wanting in

Yeah but if you are right Tango then will be quite a lot of downward pressure eon SP until he can move through that sort of volume of shares to somewhat cash out and retire. Predicament really. SP dropping below 1.30 as we speak, hope I am right with my previous comment of 1.25 holding and forming a lower end support level there. Shouldn't go lower than that surely, fingers crossed. But if you are right and DD's brokers are on sell call then could see SP battered over the following month while he sells through.

Sizeabkle 20,000 - 40,000 sells have been going through consistently throughout the day. Brokers just wait for the bid side to catch up as they drip feed the order through. In order to follow 'fair market trade". I have found this in the past with other shares I have wanted to sell down, been informed I needed to stagger them down not put a single sell on market considerably lower than days opening or current price. Seems to be what is happening? Happens to be approx 10 minutes apart. That way the brokers can get a better price by letting bids build up rather than drive their own sell price down too heavily. Definitely can be seen as we speak if monitor the recent trade activity. Look for the sell orders spacing through 20,000 - 40,000 consistently.

Luckily there seem to be sufficient bids coming through to keep it around the 1.30 level, but as the flow of sells steadily keep pushing through the buy demand may diminish as the day progresses and might well be closer to 1.25 by days end :( Oh well lets cross fingers 1.20 not tested!! We need some big buyers to come in, but most of them already spent up in the recent Cap Raise. Come on guys top up and double down if hit 1.25 surely (ha, not as if the big boys are looking at this forum anyway!)

Looking by the activity brokers have been instructed to cash out 1.30-1.31, that's where their bids are coming through. Lets hope they have been instructed not to drop below that figure. If so maybe 1.30 can hold fingers crossed. As soon as buy orders surmount to approx 20,000- 40,000 (or higher) @ 1.30/1.31 look what happens, a sell comes through for approx 20,000, 30,000 or 40,000 knocking it back sub 1.30 again.

[DonkeyKong]

Cheers minerbarejet that’s a great post with good information for me to dig into.

Interesting thoughts t.rexjr. I saw in today’s presentation slides that their Q1 FY22 their total laboratory throughput grew 9% on the previous quarter, Q4 FY21. Without knowing at all whether this is a fair assumption or not. If one assumed they have 9% growth quarter on quarter this year. That could put their throughput at 1.09^4 times the size of Q4 FY21 for the year. So using the numbers I could find quickly:
- 15814 total throughput for FY21
- Q1FY22 up 35% on FY21 quarterly average

That would put FY22 throughput at 15814/4*1.35+15814*3/4*1.35*1.09^3 = 26073 rounded up. So 64.87% increase or 10529 increase in absolute terms.

I’m not sure what I think about that. And I do wonder if this is the type of thing that could have snowballing growth which could make the assumption unfair. Anyways, it has given me some interesting stuff to dig into and will be interesting to see how it plays out for PEB.

I haven’t had a chance to look into the results in detail. But on first glance they look below anticipation.

This rough calculation from back in September would of put them at estimated half year throughput of 11155 rounded up. 15814/4*1.35+15814/4*1.35*1.09 = 11154.8

But it was ignoring the increasing sales staff and ignoring Kaisers coverage of CXBladder Triage starting in August 2021.

So the actual throughput of 11136 might be below what was expected.

Hopefully they have a stellar second half.

[Maxtrade]

The joys of being a broker. There it is 40,000 1.30. Other sellers seem to be cottoning on. Might end up forcing their sell orders to be sub 1.30 to compete against the brokers sell downs. Let's just hope the brokers aren't allowed to offload lower than 1.30. Guess we will see this afternoon.

[winner69]

Announcement seem very similar to previous ones over the years …..and the reaction on Sharetrader is the same.

Seems a never ending sago ….maybe one day it’ll all be different.

Just my observation …and I can say that because PEB has received some of my cash in the past.

[Maxtrade]

Announcement seem very similar to previous ones over the years …..and the reaction on Sharetrader is the same.

Seems a never ending sago ….maybe one day it’ll all be different.

Just my observation …and I can say that because PEB has received some of my cash in the past.

1.30 not looking like an attractive enough re-entry point for you?

I first started investing in PEB when it was 0.27. Bought and sold along the way, but wished I had just held every time from when I have sold, as it's much stronger now. Wondering if 1.30 will be looked back upon (after this volume seller clears out the way) and have seen it as a good buy opportunity.

[Brain]

I am happy with it all , substantial cash in the bank , increasing the sales staff ( why wouldn’t that be a good idea?) and good growth. The share price is overvalued at this point but the future looks good to me. PEB are in the best shape it has ever been in and should go from strength to strength. Perhaps some investors are impatient and expect too much. I will not be selling my shares.

[tango]

Yeah but if you are right Tango then will be quite a lot of downward pressure eon SP until he can move through that sort of volume of shares to somewhat cash out and retire. Predicament really. SP dropping below 1.30 as we speak, hope I am right with my previous comment of 1.25 holding and forming a lower end support level there. Shouldn't go lower than that surely, fingers crossed. But if you are right and DD's brokers are on sell call then could see SP battered over the following month while he sells through.

Sizeabkle 20,000 - 40,000 sells have been going through consistently throughout the day. Brokers just wait for the bid side to catch up as they drip feed the order through. In order to follow 'fair market trade". I have found this in the past with other shares I have wanted to sell down, been informed I needed to stagger them down not put a single sell on market considerably lower than days opening or current price. Seems to be what is happening? Happens to be approx 10 minutes apart. That way the brokers can get a better price by letting bids build up rather than drive their own sell price down too heavily. Definitely can be seen as we speak if monitor the recent trade activity. Look for the sell orders spacing through 20,000 - 40,000 consistently.

Luckily there seem to be sufficient bids coming through to keep it around the 1.30 level, but as the flow of sells steadily keep pushing through the buy demand may diminish as the day progresses and might well be closer to 1.25 by days end :( Oh well lets cross fingers 1.20 not tested!! We need some big buyers to come in, but most of them already spent up in the recent Cap Raise. Come on guys top up and double down if hit 1.25 surely (ha, not as if the big boys are looking at this forum anyway!)

Looking by the activity brokers have been instructed to cash out 1.30-1.31, that's where their bids are coming through. Lets hope they have been instructed not to drop below that figure. If so maybe 1.30 can hold fingers crossed. As soon as buy orders surmount to approx 20,000- 40,000 (or higher) @ 1.30/1.31 look what happens, a sell comes through for approx 20,000, 30,000 or 40,000 knocking it back sub 1.30 again.

I spoke to Direct Broking/Jarden about this a couple of months ago because I couldn't see my sell order in the depth and the broker told me that my order was too big to process in one hit and he said they would manually drip feed it in so the market doesn't panic.

If DD is selling most of his shareholding (and with volume of 2.6 million to date I would say it's likely) then we still have another 1 or 2 million shares to go before things settle.

It makes sense. He couldn't sell earlier without potential insider trading accusations and sometimes when you leave a business, even if you love it, you just want to move on.

[tango]

Usually with large order the brokers try to place as much as possible with existing clients then drip feed the rest on the market so it could all be done. If they have then they will reveal the rest of the trades in the mop up at 5 pm

[Maxtrade]

Usually with large order the brokers try to place as much as possible with existing clients then drip feed the rest on the market so it could all be done. If they have then they will reveal the rest of the trades in the mop up at 5 pm

Right, Or more likely push the rest into tomorrows taking by the looks of it

[winner69]

Ha ha ….an analyst said much the same as me


Pacific Edge delivered results for the six months ended September which were described by one broker as being as “bang in line as a PEB result can be”.

[Maxtrade]

Ha ha ….an analyst said much the same as me


Pacific Edge delivered results for the six months ended September which were described by one broker as being as “bang in line as a PEB result can be”.

Still seems a bit of an overreaction of negativity having pushed the SP down so far. Looks like 1.25 is going to be tested after all.

[winner69]

Still seems a bit of an overreaction of negativity having pushed the SP down so far. Looks like 1.25 is going to be tested after all.

That analyst was really saying 'another PEB results announcement which is essentially a cut and oaste of previous ones with new numbers inserted ....and the new numbers aren't very exciting .... and made sure they left the bits about a bright future in'

The narrative is getting a bit stale after so many years

[850man]

That analyst was really saying 'another PEB results announcement which is essentially a cut and oaste of previous ones with new numbers inserted ....and the new numbers aren't very exciting .... and made sure they left the bits about a bright future in'

The narrative is getting a bit stale after so many years

Hard to know what holders were expecting that would have not resulted in them selling. More cash is coming in than previously, they have more addressable market and CXBladder is receiving positive feedback from the medical professionals. Looks like a growth trajectory to me. Perhaps holders expecting a lotto like revenue windfall in these latest results??

[McPussPuss]

I personally don't expect anything from the results.The share price is more announcement driven based on news that either confirms or contradicts the story/hype.

It would be disappointing if it was DD creating this selling pressure so soon after the cash raise where participants are now over 6% underwater.

Unfortunately management do have a track record here which is always important to keep in mind.

[t.rexjr]

Hard to know what holders were expecting that would have not resulted in them selling. More cash is coming in than previously, they have more addressable market and CXBladder is receiving positive feedback from the medical professionals. Looks like a growth trajectory to me. Perhaps holders expecting a lotto like revenue windfall in these latest results??

Given there was talk of the cap raise being due to reaching capacity at the current facility, I dare say there's many a disappointed punter... the result was (subtilty) forewarned though. Certainly no need for anyone to panic buy due to the explosion of sales. What happens when people don't need to buy but some have to sell?

[Maxtrade]

Given there was talk of the cap raise being due to reaching capacity at the current facility, I dare say there's many a disappointed punter... the result was (subtilty) forewarned though. Certainly no need for anyone to panic buy due to the explosion of sales. What happens when people don't need to buy but some have to sell?

Yeah but 1.59 recent highs down to 1.25, a 20% sell off is a bit overkill. I would say after the larger volume seller has finished selling off will get a pretty quick bounce back up from where it is now though. I personally am maxed out on available funds otherwise 1.25 is looking like a great entry point for those that didn't participate in the Cap Raise or who are looking to get into PEB or top up their portfolios. After this 20% pullback would say support will come riding in pretty soon. Especially after volume seller is cleared out the way.

Therefore a good buy opportunity at current levels for those with available funds

[Maxtrade]

I personally don't expect anything from the results.The share price is more announcement driven based on news that either confirms or contradicts the story/hype.

It would be disappointing if it was DD creating this selling pressure so soon after the cash raise where participants are now over 6% underwater.

Unfortunately management do have a track record here which is always important to keep in mind.

He couldn't sell prior. Been waiting for the opportunity for a long while. Nothing for shareholders to be concerned about. He has done a great job, everyone reaches a point in life when it's time to cash out, kick back and retire. It's not a scenario of management trying to bail out of a stock sneakily due to concerns for the company (ie ATM is a different story). The trajectory and path he leaves them on is in great terms. It is inevitable when there is large volume of shares to move the market follows like sheep putting more downwards pressure on SP as we have seen. But when this flows through keep an eye out for the turn around and bounce. Bargain hunters from the 1.35 Cap Raise price will be keenly following this to see where it levels out and I'm sure we will very quickly see the bids pile up at the hint of that. Momentum seems to be slowing now, thought the 1.25 level might be it, if it's not 1.20 most certainly. But I don't think we will see it reach that low today.

Entry at 1.25 is about an 8% discount off the $1.35 Cap Raise. It would be foolish for retail traders who took part int he Cap Raise to sell and realise a loss lower. Thats where fear kicks in, absolutely no need to realise a loss at this time. Let the shares transfer take place. Realise no loss. Remain calm and just ignore the SP for a few days if need be to not fret. The SP will recover naturally. The growth progress has never looked better. Covid has slowed the uptake, nothing unexpected there. But as the world is reopening and priorities such as CANCER manage to be focused on again as they should be, the upside potential remains solid as ever. They have $90,000,000 to now focus on further growth, market share and sales in key markets such as the US, but not only the US. Non invasive screening is the way of the future and currently being recognised and taken on board. I think New Zealand should be proud to be on that forefront in turn becoming globally recognised.

[t.rexjr]

Yeah but 1.59 recent highs down to 1.25, a 20% sell off is a bit overkill. I would say after the larger volume seller has finished selling off will get a pretty quick bounce back up from where it is now though. I personally am maxed out on available funds otherwise 1.25 is looking like a great entry point for those that didn't participate in the Cap Raise or who are looking to get into PEB or top up their portfolios. After this 20% pullback would say support will come riding in pretty soon. Especially after volume seller is cleared out the way.

Therefore a good buy opportunity at current levels for those with available funds

it's a $1bn company that is struggling to gain traction in an industry that is notoriously slow to adapt. It only achieved a 24% increase in tests from the previous 6 month period off a very low base. The hype has had a reality pin stuck in it. Huge gains and pins... There's a monstrous gap in the chart between $1.00 and $1.10. That's where I'd be looking to top up

[850man]

The SP plummet seems bottomless today albeit with relatively small volumes - best I look at my HLG now :scared:

[Maxtrade]

The SP plummet seems bottomless today albeit with relatively small volumes - best I look at my HLG now :scared:

Those consistent larger 20,000- 40,000 sell orders have seemed to tapper off in the last hour. Does that mean the larger seller (DD maybe or maybe not) have sold off the amount they were aiming for. Let's hope so. Base forming, looking like 1.20 held and may have been the bottom of the dip? A bounce from here after a 2 day sell off nearing 20% reaching oversold seems on the cards? Anyone see what I'm seeing? Bugger it. I'm going to sell off some other stocks and buy in more if it touches close to 1.20 again. End of day back up to 1.25 my bet.

[pierre]

Looks to me like selling by panic merchants with no eye for the big picture. Just because PEB raised $100m a month or so ago, there was no way that was going to turn the company's fortunes immediately.

We're dealing with an oil tanker here - not a jetboat - when it comes to speed of action. Long term PEB holders are only too well aware the health industry is notoriously slow to adapt to new technology (my local GP's practice has only this month got around to activating some key functions in the Manage My health App!). KP's support of the PEB technology is great but their frustrating slowness to integrate it into their systems is yet another example.

Once the reorganisation of our DHBs is in place next year, I believe PEB will (relatively) quickly achieve 100% coverage of its products in the NZ public heath system. What a great marketing story (and SP supporter) that will be, even if it's only a modest contributor to income.

Covid clearly isn't helping PEB's progress either, so I'm picking it might take another year or two before their investment in sales and marketing activity and employing more sales people really starts to bear fruit. The company's new MD starts soon and will bring a new focus on revenue generation too.

While PEB now has the cash it needs to continue on its growth path, the cost of doing so is an expense, so a break-even bottom line is still some time away. From that point onwards though, the growth will be exponential. That's when the patient investor will score a significant return.

Meantime, this week's panic sellers are creating some fabulous buying opportunities.

[Maxtrade]

Looks to me like selling by panic merchants with no eye for the big picture. Just because PEB raised $100m a month or so ago, there was no way that was going to turn the company's fortunes immediately.

We're dealing with an oil tanker here - not a jetboat - when it comes to speed of action. Long term PEB holders are only too well aware the health industry is notoriously slow to adapt to new technology (my local GP's practice has only this month got around to activating some key functions in the Manage My health App!). KP's support of the PEB technology is great but their frustrating slowness to integrate it into their systems is yet another example.

Once the reorganisation of our DHBs is in place next year, I believe PEB will (relatively) quickly achieve 100% coverage of its products in the NZ public heath system. What a great marketing story (and SP supporter) that will be, even if it's only a modest contributor to income.

Covid clearly isn't helping PEB's progress either, so I'm picking it might take another year or two before their investment in sales and marketing activity and employing more sales people really starts to bear fruit. The company's new MD starts soon and will bring a new focus on revenue generation too.

While PEB now has the cash it needs to continue on its growth path, the cost of doing so is an expense, so a break-even bottom line is still some time away. From that point onwards though, the growth will be exponential. That's when the patient investor will score a significant return.

Meantime, this week's panic sellers are creating some fabulous buying opportunities.

You hit the nail on the head. Totally agree. That's exactly what's happening. With all this new money in the market (plenty of inexperienced traders who have thrown their money at shares rather than have it idle in banks), see a bit a of a sell, get scared and follow the flock selling realising losses. Whereas such as Warren Buffet says when many see fear others see opportunity. 20% down off recent trending high 1.59. 10% discount to recent Cap Raise. Anyone on the sidelines looking to get into PEB would have timed it right if they waited until now.

I agree with you good buying opportunity taking advantage of the large volume seller needing to offload.

Anyway seems like the cavalry is starting to kick in and realise this, buyers accumulating support bouncing off todays dip 1.20-1.22 now.

1.20 was always going to be a key support level. Pretty hard to turn down PEB at 1.20 off recent trending direction. Probably be short lived? Back up into the 1.3's next week do you think (once sell off done). Who knows with the swings in the markets these days could even bounce back to 1.40 just as quick.

Also many will follow by cost averaging down at these levels if they participated in the Cap Raise at 1.35. Once they see the lower trough form, watch for cost averaging bids come through.

On uptrend watch for fear sellers then canceling sell orders at 1.25 deciding they don't want to actually realise a loss. Then pretty clear sailing with no heavy sell volume back up to where it was (once volume seller done which seems to be after 2 days of selling). Human traits similar to a flock of sheep on a sell off, think they are loosing money seeing share price drop, so sell, realise loss - actually loose the money.
Then those with more steady hands swoop up the discounted shares make on the subsequent rally. Then those shareholders that sold out of fear see the share price being higher than what they just sold off for and feel disgruntled. I made those mistakes when first starting out a few years back too.

[tango]

PEB excuse for limited sales was hospitals dealing with coronavirus. Given the latest wave of cases in Europe is expected to hit the USA soon and the added bonus of omicron joining the party PEB aren’t likely to pick up traction any time soon

[Harrie]

This result does not surprise me in the least. The market was unrealistically factoring in far better lab throughput than has been the reality. The disappointment has now been reflected in the current SP. I remember posting something when the SP was around $1.56 suggesting that to justify that price you would need to have the lab throughput at capacity of 260000 at $NZ$1000 per test, a margin of 30% and a earnings multiple of 20. That was never going to happen, not at least for a couple of years on the current trajectory. Add to this inexperienced sharesies investors and this is what you get.

I did not take up the recent share offer because I anticipated that the results ending 30 September were likely to disappoint. Total acceptance for a new diagnostic medical procedure never works that fast, and the health sector is riddled with vested interest when it comes to protecting income sources. The other aspect that worries me is blaming limited lab throughput on Covid. That's a contradiction. Isn't it safer to send out a urine collection bag with a paid return package directly to the Lab rather than going to the hospital or a clinic?

So now we are at the crossroads between potential and belief. On the negative side can PEB convince the AUA and Urologists that Cxbladder is the gold standard for testing for bladder cancer. If so how long is this going to take?
On the positive side we could find a health provider like Johns Hopkins come on board. There is also enough evidence around for clients to look for alternatives for cystoscopys and put pressure on practitioners recommending cystoscopys.

Looking on the positive side I see enough evidence that its just a matter of time before this diagnostic procedure becomes mainstream. With the NPV values they produce there is no current or likely competition, and for those reasons I am happy to hold and also add to my not insubstantial holding should the SP get down to the $1.10 to 1.15 level

[DonkeyKong]

This result does not surprise me in the least. The market was unrealistically factoring in far better lab throughput than has been the reality. The disappointment has now been reflected in the current SP. I remember posting something when the SP was around $1.56 suggesting that to justify that price you would need to have the lab throughput at capacity of 260000 at $NZ$1000 per test, a margin of 30% and a earnings multiple of 20. That was never going to happen, not at least for a couple of years on the current trajectory. Add to this inexperienced sharesies investors and this is what you get.

I did not take up the recent share offer because I anticipated that the results ending 30 September were likely to disappoint. Total acceptance for a new diagnostic medical procedure never works that fast, and the health sector is riddled with vested interest when it comes to protecting income sources. The other aspect that worries me is blaming limited lab throughput on Covid. That's a contradiction. Isn't it safer to send out a urine collection bag with a paid return package directly to the Lab rather than going to the hospital or a clinic?

So now we are at the crossroads between potential and belief. On the negative side can PEB convince the AUA and Urologists that Cxbladder is the gold standard for testing for bladder cancer. If so how long is this going to take?
On the positive side we could find a health provider like Johns Hopkins come on board. There is also enough evidence around for clients to look for alternatives for cystoscopys and put pressure on practitioners recommending cystoscopys.

Looking on the positive side I see enough evidence that its just a matter of time before this diagnostic procedure becomes mainstream. With the NPV values they produce there is no current or likely competition, and for those reasons I am happy to hold and also add to my not insubstantial holding should the SP get down to the $1.10 to 1.15 level

Here’s the post you wrote https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-PEB-Pacific-Edge-Ltd&p=912429&highlight=#post912429

To save others searching back.

[Retired Doc]

Very happy to hold and likely accumulate if SP drops further. Recent events reinforce the impression that many investors do not appreciate the significant influence of medical conservatism and self protection. The KP issue of apparent slow adoption reinforces my experience of form triumphing over function with the barrier to using an excellent test being created by the inability of the potential user to easily use it because of it’s not being integrated into admin systems. A parallel is my former practice changing to a computer system the clinical staff loathe cf the previous system. But head office loves the business information and that drove the change.

[artemis]

Very happy to hold and likely accumulate if SP drops further. Recent events reinforce the impression that many investors do not appreciate the significant influence of medical conservatism and self protection. The KP issue of apparent slow adoption reinforces my experience of form triumphing over function with the barrier to using an excellent test being created by the inability of the potential user to easily use it because of it’s not being integrated into admin systems. A parallel is my former practice changing to a computer system the clinical staff loathe cf the previous system. But head office loves the business information and that drove the change.

Also, the more individuals have the non invasive test, the more individuals will have the non invasive test. Because who are going to revert if it is not clinically imperative? And they have medical advisers, friends and relations ....

[psychic]

Very happy to hold and likely accumulate if SP drops further. Recent events reinforce the impression that many investors do not appreciate the significant influence of medical conservatism and self protection. The KP issue of apparent slow adoption reinforces my experience of form triumphing over function with the barrier to using an excellent test being created by the inability of the potential user to easily use it because of it’s not being integrated into admin systems. A parallel is my former practice changing to a computer system the clinical staff loathe cf the previous system. But head office loves the business information and that drove the change.

It is a valid issue but I would argue that this is not the main problem, yet.

The tests need more supporting evidence and will not be adopted until they do.
We only have PE's spin on it that there is adoption, but the numbers do not demonstrate this. Until the tests find a way into the clinical pathway they will continue to be investigational and supportive only.

They have the funding now to tread water for a few more years while thier evidence builds. And frankly, I think they will need all of that.
Still far too much blind hope priced into this.

[psychic]

I have argued before that the four big announcements that took the SP from the 10 cent days were misleading.

I see no more talk of United Healthcare and suggest they have been told to cease that. That was utter smoke and mirrors stuff.
CMS "approvals" have meant diddly so far
Kaiser "commercial agreements" are just that, and I really doubt the problem is just an administrative one.
The "in the AUA guidleines" statement is just more smoke and mirrors



Even in NZ, it is still not fully supported.

[Minerbarejet]

I have argued before that the four big announcements that took the SP from the 10 cent days were misleading.

I see no more talk of United Healthcare and suggest they have been told to cease that. That was utter smoke and mirrors stuff.
CMS "approvals" have meant diddly so far
Kaiser "commercial agreements" are just that, and I really doubt the problem is just an administrative one.
The "in the AUA guidleines" statement is just more smoke and mirrors



Even in NZ, it is still not fully supported.

Would suggest that most of the healthcare systems worldwide have a major problem confronting them with Covid 19 and mutations.

I dont think anyone could deny that its presence will have an effect on other other surgical procedures, tests, many of which will be delayed due to lack of resources.

When the Monitor penny finally drops that some tests can be taken care of remote from the rest of the medical world, then there should be a considerable uptake.

"Kinda busy at the moment, we will get back to you"

[psychic]

Would suggest that most of the healthcare systems worldwide have a major problem confronting them with Covid 19 and mutations.

I dont think anyone could deny that its presence will have an effect on other other surgical procedures, tests, many of which will be delayed due to lack of resources.

When the Monitor penny finally drops that some tests can be taken care of remote from the rest of the medical world, then there should be a considerable uptake.

"Kinda busy at the moment, we will get back to you"

On the contrary, this should have been an extraordinary time for Pacific Edge. If the results of an "at home" test could be sufficiently relied upon to defer cystos and a visit to the office during covid then all the tests should have flown.

[850man]

On the contrary, this should have been an extraordinary time for Pacific Edge. If the results of an "at home" test could be sufficiently relied upon to defer cystos and a visit to the office during covid then all the tests should have flown.

You are right, the case for CXB is more compelling than ever before with Covid around. The independent reports validate that CXB is accurate so getting uptake should be easy. Some transparency about what this new USA sales team are focusing on would be useful here.

[Minerbarejet]

You are right, the case for CXB is more compelling than ever before with Covid around. The independent reports validate that CXB is accurate so getting uptake should be easy. Some transparency about what this new USA sales team are focusing on would be useful here.

If you cant get in the front gate to see the necessary people due to covid restrictions then the only alternative is word of mouth.

If there are 26 sales people being stymied at all turns there seems to be a shortage of wisdom in engaging more.

The craziness will continue as they discover more and more mutations of Covid.

The Covid speed bump is turning into high altitude 4x4 territory

[psychic]

If you cant get in the front gate to see the necessary people due to covid restrictions then the only alternative is word of mouth.

If there are 26 sales people being stymied at all turns there seems to be a shortage of wisdom in engaging more.

The craziness will continue as they discover more and more mutations of Covid.

The Covid speed bump is turning into high altitude 4x4 territory

Miner, with all due respect, they are not selling shoes.

Surely very few Urologists would not know about Cxbladder? Given sufficient confidence and clinical validity they would be using it. They are not.

Diagnosis / treatment of bladder cancer cannot be deferred, so a home test would be a terrific interim solution right now. It seems to me that the tests are being used (rarely) as an adjunct, and only in a very narrow band of diagnosis.. I think the sales force is needed to promote use within this narrow band (for want of a better term), and that to me says they have a long way to go before acceptance is anything like Pacific Edge claim.

[Harrie]

Well Psychic, the urologists have a choice. They can sit there looking at empty chairs at their medical facility, or they can start getting more proactive and look to their respective professional bodies to do some more DD into urine testing with CXB. At least they have over 7 years of data to chew over. When they finally wake up and start sending tests out to be used by patients in the comfort of their own homes they may see some more consulting revenue come through the door. One thing is for sure. No one wants to go through an invasive uncomfortable cysto where there is only a small chance that they may actually have it. I would go for a NPV of 98% any day rather than a cysto. Add to this the chance of picking up a covid virus at a medical facility and its a no brainer.
Having said that, what is this sales force actually doing? Where are the insurance companies on this. You don't need an army of sales people to calmly enter into a conversation with an insurer packed with statistical data comparing the efficacy of CXB c/f cysto's and the cost differentials between them. Get into the media, run a doco, bring in people that have had unrecoverable effects from cystco's, advertise on social media.
Don't bore us with "its not been proven" BS.

[jimdog31]

Well Psychic, the urologists have a choice. They can sit there looking at empty chairs at their medical facility, or they can start getting more proactive and look to their respective professional bodies to do some more DD into urine testing with CXB. At least they have over 7 years of data to chew over. When they finally wake up and start sending tests out to be used by patients in the comfort of their own homes they may see some more consulting revenue come through the door. One thing is for sure. No one wants to go through an invasive uncomfortable cysto where there is only a small chance that they may actually have it. I would go for a NPV of 98% any day rather than a cysto. Add to this the chance of picking up a covid virus at a medical facility and its a no brainer.
Having said that, what is this sales force actually doing? Where are the insurance companies on this. You don't need an army of sales people to calmly enter into a conversation with an insurer packed with statistical data comparing the efficacy of CXB c/f cysto's and the cost differentials between them. Get into the media, run a doco, bring in people that have had unrecoverable effects from cystco's, advertise on social media.
Don't bore us with "its not been proven" BS.

While the tests may be proven, alas the business model for which forms the basis of the share price, is not.

[winner69]

Hope maxtrade is OK

They’ve taking a beating lately ….and haven’t heard from them for a few days.

[850man]

Miner, with all due respect, they are not selling shoes.

Surely very few Urologists would not know about Cxbladder? Given sufficient confidence and clinical validity they would be using it. They are not.

Diagnosis / treatment of bladder cancer cannot be deferred, so a home test would be a terrific interim solution right now. It seems to me that the tests are being used (rarely) as an adjunct, and only in a very narrow band of diagnosis.. I think the sales force is needed to promote use within this narrow band (for want of a better term), and that to me says they have a long way to go before acceptance is anything like Pacific Edge claim.

Well said! Cancer doesn't stop for covid. A solution to allow testing to continue even with Covid restrictions would seem to me (uneducated in matters medical) as hugely attractive to urologists right now and with numerous independent reports showing the accuracy of CXB, it's not like they are being asked to put faith in a traffic light system. Covid makes a compelling event for PEB sales people, I would like to know that they are leveraging the f*** out of it.

[psychic]

Well Psychic, the urologists have a choice. They can sit there looking at empty chairs at their medical facility, or they can start getting more proactive and look to their respective professional bodies to do some more DD into urine testing with CXB. At least they have over 7 years of data to chew over. When they finally wake up and start sending tests out to be used by patients in the comfort of their own homes they may see some more consulting revenue come through the door. One thing is for sure. No one wants to go through an invasive uncomfortable cysto where there is only a small chance that they may actually have it. I would go for a NPV of 98% any day rather than a cysto. Add to this the chance of picking up a covid virus at a medical facility and its a no brainer.
Having said that, what is this sales force actually doing? Where are the insurance companies on this. You don't need an army of sales people to calmly enter into a conversation with an insurer packed with statistical data comparing the efficacy of CXB c/f cysto's and the cost differentials between them. Get into the media, run a doco, bring in people that have had unrecoverable effects from cystco's, advertise on social media.
Don't bore us with "its not been proven" BS.

Harrie. I imagine that people who are making these decisions on new health technology are quite well informed. The AUA represents Uroloists and those that sit on the panels considering are well qualified.

I am sorry to bore you with the "proof" thing, but there really are levels validation necessary for these sort of tests and more often than not I read that further studies /evidence is required.

This evidence is being gathered all the time and the more Cxbladder is used the more information they have. You will be aware that many of the studies so far are provided by Pacific Edge and bias is something else that those making decisions will consider.

As far as the Insurers go, they like everyone else, wait for more proof. Cxbladder is not covered and investigational only.

[psychic]

Here is a study of the comparative performance of some of the "new age" tests.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588931121001838

It is not light reading but here is an extract comparing CxBladder Monitor

13266

The race is on for Pacific Edge...

[Minerbarejet]

Perhaps the AUA would do well to issue some guidelines as to how much "evidence" is required or do we all wait for

them to graciously accept the odd crumb of data here and there until thousands have died or otherwise been affected

negatively through a lack of noninvasive testing.

Lets not forget 70% of our own DHBs have been using CXB in clinical pathways for some time, one would assume with success.

Another piece of the puzzle is in the near future by the looks.

From the HY report

• Analysis of results from Singapore study is underway with publication in early 2022 planned to trigger SEA commercial launch.

SE Asia is considered a bigger market than the USA and and the population has a tendency, more so, towards gastric

cancer, apparently.

Bladder cancer diagnosis is not the only iron in the fire:

From Pacific Edge's own pipeline:



Gastric cancer (diagnosis): This product is in pre-clinical trials.
Gastric cancer (triage): The two-biomarker immunoassay for delivery at point of care is currently in development.
Melanoma (prognosis): Pacific Edge, in collaboration with the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research (https://www.ludwigcancerresearch.org/), has identified and validated a prognostic gene signature for the identification of aggressive stage II melanoma. The signature is in pre-clinical trials.
Endometrial (detection): In development.


Quite a way to go here with ADXBladder
• The main points from the evidence summarised in this briefing are from 1 multicentreprospective study including a total of 577 people presenting with haematuria or lower urinarytract symptoms, with suspected malignancy. It shows that ADXBLADDER can detect bladdercancer with 76% sensitivity and 69% specificity.

Not even in the ballpark if this is correct and up to date.

[Sideshow Bob]

Just get the dogs out.....

'Just waiting for that phone call': Dog training service ready to train canines to detect Covid-19 | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300425946/just-waiting-for-that-phone-call-dog-training-service-ready-to-train-canines-to-detect-covid19)

Home | Welcome to K9 Medical Detection New Zealand Charitable Trust (k9md.org.nz) (https://www.k9md.org.nz/)

[psychic]

Oh I think the validation process is probably quite clear and well understood.

Why do the remaining DHB's not use Cxbladder? Why is the adoption by the rest not refected by significant NZ throughput?

Yes, looking forward to publication of the Singapore study, is it for Detect? The Gastric cancer tests offer more HOPE, a decade in the making? Be another decade before commercialisation if the Cxbladder tests are any indication.

[Maxtrade]

Hope maxtrade is OK

They’ve taking a beating lately ….and haven’t heard from them for a few days.

Thanks for checking in. All good. Been doing well buying the dips of panic selling yesterday thanks to Covid next strain. People will get to use to the fact that there will be many new strains (similar to influenza, rhinovirus's, etc) where we will learn to live wth them rather than freak out and panic on each new seasons variant. The joy of modern medical technology is that our advancements in virology mean the pharmaceutical companies can adapt their vaccines relatively quickly. Will be a constant game of chase where we will always be one step behind Covid but doing what we can to put the pressure on and not let it run away from us too far. It's nothing like the havoc the Spanish flu had on the world wiping out 25% of the worlds population. The reason why is because of our medical advancements since that time. It is all part of the process of co evolving with a new virus that is likely here to stay. The human species are resilient and adaptive. I think it is an opportunity to get into PEB at discounted levels due to the timing of this pushing the SP lower than it would otherwise have taken. Expecting a rally to follow. Large seller of previous days seems to have finished. Once the Omicron scare wears off let's see where SP levels are at. Obviously not as bad a sell off as when Covid first hit and the markets tanked. This time around a much lesser reaction. The next one will be even less and so forth.

Didn't take long to rally back up to 1.25 as in my previous post, already a 6% gain off 1.18 top up. 1.25 will blow by now that volume seller has cleared out. Will be back up into 1.3's in no time. Probably back up to hover around mid 1.4's until some more positive updates in the works down the line.

We still believe in the direction and integration for CX bladder and still see PEB gaining market share and future success.

It's only rough for those that freak out on a dip, sell and realise their losses. Hesitate to buy back in then end up facing a decision to buy back in higher than what they sold for, which is often a bitter pill to swallow, as they kick themselves for selling and realising the loss in the first place.

Cheers

[Minerbarejet]

Oh I think the validation process is probably quite clear and well understood.

Why do the remaining DHB's not use Cxbladder? Why is the adoption by the rest not refected by significant NZ throughput?

Yes, looking forward to publication of the Singapore study, is it for Detect? The Gastric cancer tests offer more HOPE, a decade in the making? Be another decade before commercialisation if the Cxbladder tests are any indication.

To quote a well respected doctor in our family who when retiring was asked after 40 years of General Practice in a major city how many bladder cancer patients he had had over 40 years

Answer: two or three I think

[psychic]

Perhaps the AUA would do well to issue some guidelines as to how much "evidence" is required or do we all wait for

them to graciously accept the odd crumb of data here and there until thousands have died or otherwise been affected

negatively through a lack of noninvasive testing.

Lets not forget 70% of our own DHBs have been using CXB in clinical pathways for some time, one would assume with success.

Another piece of the puzzle is in the near future by the looks.

From the HY report

• Analysis of results from Singapore study is underway with publication in early 2022 planned to trigger SEA commercial launch.

SE Asia is considered a bigger market than the USA and and the population has a tendency, more so, towards gastric

cancer, apparently.

Bladder cancer diagnosis is not the only iron in the fire:

From Pacific Edge's own pipeline:



Gastric cancer (diagnosis): This product is in pre-clinical trials.
Gastric cancer (triage): The two-biomarker immunoassay for delivery at point of care is currently in development.
Melanoma (prognosis): Pacific Edge, in collaboration with the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research (https://www.ludwigcancerresearch.org/), has identified and validated a prognostic gene signature for the identification of aggressive stage II melanoma. The signature is in pre-clinical trials.
Endometrial (detection): In development.


Quite a way to go here with ADXBladder
• The main points from the evidence summarised in this briefing are from 1 multicentreprospective study including a total of 577 people presenting with haematuria or lower urinarytract symptoms, with suspected malignancy. It shows that ADXBLADDER can detect bladdercancer with 76% sensitivity and 69% specificity.

Not even in the ballpark if this is correct and up to date.


You rotter, you added this bit about ADX to your post when everyone had turned the page! Why pick on the worst of them?
What did you think about Uromonitor? I have not looked ino any of these other tests, but the table I extracted from that study suggests Uromonitor bettered Cxbladder monitor as did Epicheck?
I thought Pacific Edge had the playing field to itself?

[Minerbarejet]

You rotter, you added this bit about ADX to your post when everyone had turned the page! Why pick on the worst of them?
What did you think about Uromonitor? I have not looked ino any of these other tests, but the table I extracted from that study suggests Uromonitor bettered Cxbladder monitor as did Epicheck?
I thought Pacific Edge had the playing field to itself?

Uromonitor 400 samples - way to go yet.

[Retired Doc]

To quote a well respected doctor in our family who when retiring was asked after 40 years of General Practice in a major city how many bladder cancer patients he had had over 40 years

Answer: two or three I think
True but he would have worried about the possibility of bladder cancer in his patients many many more times than that.

[Harrie]

True but he would have worried about the possibility of bladder cancer in his patients many many more times than that.

I take that to mean how many cysco's needed to be performed only to end up with 3 or 4 actual bladder cancer cases. We know that blood in the urine does not necessarily mean that cancer exists in fact my understanding is that a very high % do not have cancer when presenting with blood in the urine.
Retired Doc. Maybe you can give us some real info here. If a patient presents with blood in urine, I would presume you would refer the patient to a urologist.
1. Would the urologist as a matter of course conduct a cysco without hesitation?
2. Of those that you referred what % actually had bladder cancer?
Cheers

[Maxtrade]

Volume seller clearly finished. I may have missed it but no disclosure notice released yet in regards to who the seller was. I might have missed it, was it DD?

Normal trade dynamics now. No selling push, nothing in the 1.24 (very small insignificant 10- 80 unit share sales, sharsies). only real sales today 1.25 and 1.26. Sellers asks not looking willing to go below 1.26. Hope those who wanted to acquire more shares took advantage of the dip (we did). Stabilising with obvious sellers needing to move cleared out the way. Only 4 sellers sitting at 1.26. If a couple of those realise the sell off is finished and remove their orders or they sell through to buyers then likely we will see that steady rally trend back up into the 1.3/1.4's again. Especially once the initial fright of Omicron is subsiding.

Tempting to acquire more while there are still some available sitting at 1.25, seeing the bottom of dip has subsided. Anyone else having similar thoughts?

[pierre]

Tempting to acquire more while there are still some available sitting at 1.25, seeing the bottom of dip has subsided. Anyone else having similar thoughts?

The current SP is definitely a good buying opportunity, but PEB is currently around 20% of my portfolio, so I'm happy to sit on what I hold at the moment.

With a total of ~800m shares on issue, I think we might have to wait until the next "good news" announcement" before we see the SP move much further north.

[LoungeLizzard]

Volume seller clearly finished. I may have missed it but no disclosure notice released yet in regards to who the seller was. I might have missed it, was it DD?

Normal trade dynamics now. No selling push, nothing in the 1.24 (very small insignificant 10- 80 unit share sales, sharsies). only real sales today 1.25 and 1.26. Sellers asks not looking willing to go below 1.26. Hope those who wanted to acquire more shares took advantage of the dip (we did). Stabilising with obvious sellers needing to move cleared out the way. Only 4 sellers sitting at 1.26. If a couple of those realise the sell off is finished and remove their orders or they sell through to buyers then likely we will see that steady rally trend back up into the 1.3/1.4's again. Especially once the initial fright of Omicron is subsiding.

Tempting to acquire more while there are still some available sitting at 1.25, seeing the bottom of dip has subsided. Anyone else having similar thoughts?

Yep, thinking the same. I have quite a few PEB shares, and because of gains since last year it is now nearly 20% of my portfolio. There has obviously been a big seller, but maybe some holders like myself, who have made big gains in the last 12 months, are adjusting their portfolio weighting and scaling down? It's just usual ebb and flow stuff - I fully expect PEB to rally again fairly soon.

[t.rexjr]

Volume seller clearly finished. I may have missed it but no disclosure notice released yet in regards to who the seller was. I might have missed it, was it DD?

Normal trade dynamics now. No selling push, nothing in the 1.24 (very small insignificant 10- 80 unit share sales, sharsies). only real sales today 1.25 and 1.26. Sellers asks not looking willing to go below 1.26. Hope those who wanted to acquire more shares took advantage of the dip (we did). Stabilising with obvious sellers needing to move cleared out the way. Only 4 sellers sitting at 1.26. If a couple of those realise the sell off is finished and remove their orders or they sell through to buyers then likely we will see that steady rally trend back up into the 1.3/1.4's again. Especially once the initial fright of Omicron is subsiding.

Tempting to acquire more while there are still some available sitting at 1.25, seeing the bottom of dip has subsided. Anyone else having similar thoughts?

My thoughts are:

Sand castles are made of sand...
It's hard to play basketball on the beach...
Avoid counting sand on a windy day...

There are always those that need to sell. There is no such thing as need to buy....

[Habits]

My thoughts are:

Sand castles are made of sand...
It's hard to play basketball on the beach...
Avoid counting sand on a windy day...

There are always those that need to sell. There is no such thing as need to buy...

Passive funds maybe

[Maxtrade]

My thoughts are:

Sand castles are made of sand...
It's hard to play basketball on the beach...
Avoid counting sand on a windy day...

There are always those that need to sell. There is no such thing as need to buy....

Makes sense, but there are those that feel 'compelled' to buy when they see a share price start bouncing off a low. Not wanting to miss out on those prices when see SP start rallying. So no they don't 'need' to buy but the 'feeling of needing to buy' may factor.

[t.rexjr]

Makes sense, but there are those that feel 'compelled' to buy when they see a share price start bouncing off a low. Not wanting to miss out on those prices when see SP start rallying. So no they don't 'need' to buy but the 'feeling of needing to buy' may factor.

My point is that your commentary assumes the uptrend is intact and this current dip is just that... but that is debatable. Trying to guess the next 'leg up' from looking at depth while assuming 'up' is a given is fraught with risk.

The Company has missed expectations placed on it by market. It's my observation that when hype has it's bubble burst (in absence of a positive announcement) a shareprice is more likely to drift down than up. Short term it's all guesswork. If buying long term I personally would be waiting on a re-emergence of an up trend or some news that shows confirmation of the Company having a successful future; as currently it's all very questionable. If buying short term then I'd also just be waiting as without any real signals it's a 50/50 bet right now...

Different strokes for different folks though...

13279

[Minerbarejet]

Not much interest in Aussie.
Bid is 1.00

[Minerbarejet]

Of interest in the current situation.

https://www.docwirenews.com/gu-oncology-now/gu-conferences/suo-2021/cxbladder-monitor-testing-to-inform-the-need-for-surveillance-cystoscopy/

Pretty good result with no later detections which amounts to safety in the process.

[Retired Doc]

I take that to mean how many cysco's needed to be performed only to end up with 3 or 4 actual bladder cancer cases. We know that blood in the urine does not necessarily mean that cancer exists in fact my understanding is that a very high % do not have cancer when presenting with blood in the urine.
Retired Doc. Maybe you can give us some real info here. If a patient presents with blood in urine, I would presume you would refer the patient to a urologist.
1. Would the urologist as a matter of course conduct a cysco without hesitation?
2. Of those that you referred what % actually had bladder cancer?
Cheers
Sorry late to reply Harris. That is difficult to answer succinctly but I will offer some thoughts based on experience- but not as a urologist.
A patient presenting with frank (visible) haematuria without other explanation eg infection would very likely be referred to a urologist and cystoscopy would be very likely - well until now? Enter CxBladder!
In GPland microscopic haematuria which is not too uncommon and often detected on routine screening in other conditions eg diabetes and hypertension, was more vexing and CxBladder would have reduced anxiety and workload for me and the urology service for this finding. Sorry I canÂ’t give accurate figures but off the top of my head I would estimate that I might have ordered 15 - 20 CxBladder tests pa if it had been available (practice population circa 1800 ) I saw very few cases of bladder Ca in my practice lifetime ? less than 10 but as I have said I worried about it a lot so the Triage and also Detect tests would have been useful and the monitor test would likely have saved some of my patients a lot of distress by avoiding repeated cystoscpies - some who were elderly found repeat cystoscopy hugely distressing and 100% of patients really donÂ’t like the procedure. CxBladder obviously would not eliminate cystoscopies but significantly reduce them.

I cannot speak for the urology discipline but I understand CxBladder is finding increasing favour there and unless “something better shows up” it’s use should become universal.

Cheers

[RRR]

I have a question - what if a competitor comes up with a cheaper and more sensitive/specific test for bladder cancer?

CX bladder test has been available for 10 years or more I think - even after so many years annual revenues are only 5 million (or 10)..
Market cap is 1 billion.

Discl - don't own any

[Minerbarejet]

I have a question - what if a competitor comes up with a cheaper and more sensitive/specific test for bladder cancer?

CX bladder test has been available for 10 years or more I think - even after so many years annual revenues are only 5 million (or 10)..
Market cap is 1 billion.

Discl - don't own any
The competitor will have to go through all the same hoops that cxBladder has.

There is a pretty high bar to get over with Sensitivity and Specificity set by cxBladder.

A short term and original goal was to get 10% of the patients in the various triage/monitor/detect modes

That raises the question what are the medical fraternity going to use for the other 90%

[shwatch]

The PEB story of waiting long to get approved. still applies to the next competitor, all about how long will it take the next competitor to get to the market.

[Retired Doc]

The competitor will have to go through all the same hoops that cxBladder has.

There is a pretty high bar to get over with Sensitivity and Specificity set by cxBladder.

A short term and original goal was to get 10% of the patients in the various triage/monitor/detect modes

That raises the question what are the medical fraternity going to use for the other 90%

If 10% are engaged there will be huge pressure to have 100% access in short order. In NZ I am sure there will be some restrictive criteria imposed to prevent budget blowouts as it is not a cheap test.

[davflaws]

In NZ I am sure there will be some restrictive criteria imposed to prevent budget blowouts as it is not a cheap test.
My urologist once told me that a cystoscopy was cheaper. The Registrar rolled his eyes. Has anyone costed cystoscopies for the DHBs?

[DonkeyKong]

My urologist once told me that a cystoscopy was cheaper. The Registrar rolled his eyes. Has anyone costed cystoscopies for the DHBs?

A google search lead me to this https://www.wdhb.org.nz/assets/Patients-and-visitors/94fe928e01/Non-eligible-patient-price-list.pdf

Page 3 and 4 about $635 in 2015-2016. I’m not sure whether “ineligible patient” impacts that price, I’m assuming it means they pay the full price. So add six years at let’s say 3% increase year on year, I’m guessing about $760 now.

I can’t recall the price of the cx tests in NZ, I’m pretty sure I’ve seen a figure somewhere but cannot find it now. But even if you compare it to the price in US, in my eyes the cystoscopy is not meaningfully cheaper.

Guessing at the NZ price based on the half year results, 19% of TLT and 7% of operating revenue. I’m guessing about $180 a cx test. So a lot cheaper than a cystoscopy if these numbers are anywhere close to correct.

[Roskat]

Junior Memberhttps://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/reputation/reputation_pos.pngJoin DateJul 2020LocationNelson NZPosts8

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon1.png
CxBladder test kits available on line in NZ at $368

[Maxtrade]

Some larger volume bids in afternoon trade. Was there some update this afternoon we missed? Multiple $100,000 -$150,000 bids @ 1.27. Or is it just that the previous large volume seller has cleared out the way and SP now able to push back into 1.3's/1.4's as per previous posts in thread. Volume definitely increased in this afternoons trading as though somethings stirring. Positive sign of upward direction movement.

[Maxtrade]

Some larger volume bids in afternoon trade. Was there some update this afternoon we missed? Multiple $100,000 -$150,000 bids @ 1.27. Or is it just that the previous large volume seller has cleared out the way and SP now able to push back into 1.3's/1.4's as per previous posts in thread. Volume definitely increased in this afternoons trading as though somethings stirring. Positive sign of upward direction movement.

Definite buying action off market on opening. Somebody knows something positive. Or rally off dip recovery uptrend - back up above 1.35 CR next

[LEMON]

Likely this email we received this morning

Cxbladder on the Podium at the 23rd Annual Meeting of the Society for Urologic Oncology in the US

Dear Investor,

Late last week, at the 23rd Annual Meeting of the Society of Urologic Oncology (SUO) in Orlando USA, urologists at UCSF presented their findings on the use of Cxbladder Monitor (CxbM) in a real-world setting for managing patients during COVID-19.

The SUO Annual Meeting is attended by urologists from around the world and these findings reinforced Cxbladder Monitor’s value, noting that “CxbM was feasible and safe for patients on surveillance for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) and decreased frequency of cystoscopy“ …and “CxbM may be used to further risk stratify patients to deintensify surveillance for NMIBC during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.”

Of importance, based on Cxbladder Monitor test results, urologists were able to accurately determine whether further investigation, including an invasive cystoscopy procedure was required.

67% of patients had a low probability Cxbladder Monitor score and had their surveillance cystoscopy deferred to their next visit at either 3, 6 or 9 months, with no notable detections of NMIBC in this group at their subsequent visit.
One third of patients tested positive to Cxbladder Monitor and 82% of these patients were scheduled for immediate cystoscopy, with 50% of those patients requiring a biopsy and further workup.
The findings provide strong validation for Cxbladder’s use when cancer patients might either be unable to come to a clinic in a risky pandemic setting, or when they live in a rural location or an area distanced from a clinic. This real-world clinical evidence highlights the positive outcomes for both the clinic and patient alike, providing further support for guidelines inclusion.

[850man]

Some positive news Lemon, it all contributes to increasing uptake :-) Here's the link if anyone wants the article itself https://www.docwirenews.com/gu-oncology-now/gu-conferences/suo-2021/cxbladder-monitor-testing-to-inform-the-need-for-surveillance-cystoscopy/
(https://www.docwirenews.com/gu-oncology-now/gu-conferences/suo-2021/cxbladder-monitor-testing-to-inform-the-need-for-surveillance-cystoscopy/)

[Maxtrade]

Some positive news Lemon, it all contributes to increasing uptake :-) Here's the link if anyone wants the article itself https://www.docwirenews.com/gu-oncology-now/gu-conferences/suo-2021/cxbladder-monitor-testing-to-inform-the-need-for-surveillance-cystoscopy/
(https://www.docwirenews.com/gu-oncology-now/gu-conferences/suo-2021/cxbladder-monitor-testing-to-inform-the-need-for-surveillance-cystoscopy/)

More great news for PEB. Happy to have topped up sub 1.25. As per previous posts, but actioned even faster than we thought, but back up strong bids 1.35+, and likely heading back into the 1.4's strong indication of forward momentum rally. Positive news will push it back up to recent highs sooner than we had thought now that the recent volume seller is well out the way. Onwards and upwards PEB.

(Foolish sell orders sitting at 1.33 on close, shooting yourselves in the foot not capitalising on higher returns. Will be gobbled up on end of day close)

[850man]

A very welcome 4% SP increase today. Perhaps more going on than just the above good news

[Retired Doc]

? Singapore. That of course has been a frequent refrain.

[thegreatestben]

A very welcome 4% SP increase today. Perhaps more going on than just the above good news

Release Just out
PACIFIC EDGE ANNOUNCES AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN HEALTH IN AUSTRALIA
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/384374

[850man]

Release Just out
PACIFIC EDGE ANNOUNCES AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN HEALTH IN AUSTRALIA
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/384374

Great news! The first of many I hope

[Minerbarejet]

And about time too.
Very encouraging progress that they are going for Monitor initially followed by Triage for Haematuria.

Was wondering when the thicker side of the Tasman Plate might finally get on with some sort of acceptance.:)

[pierre]

This is great news - and hopefully it's the start of a positive trend for uptake in Oz.

The announcement adds further credibility to the PEB offering and, as the SP is news-driven, upward momentum is a pretty sure thing as more Aussie health services inevitably come onboard.

Of course, this announcement is relatively minor in the overall scheme of things and progress remains painfully slower than most holders would have hoped or wanted - but it's definitely going in the right direction.

Let's hope the US and Singapore prospects are receiving the announcements too and are increasingly motivated to jump on the PEB train.

I'm looking forward to the next 12 months or so with anticipation, especially with the new CEO at the helm.

[LoungeLizzard]

As those who know the medical profession have stated, changing practice is a long, drawn out process of small wins like that announced today at Northern Health Australia. We are some ways off yet, but I do feel that CXBladder is inexorably gaining acceptance and a tipping point will be reached at some point where it will become the industry norm. All bets are off as to what that will translate to in share price but it could be a life changer for those who got in, even modestly, only a year or two ago.

[mondograss]

What is also important is that the state of Victoria operates its public hospitals in a group, of which Northern Health is just one. Also part of the group is the well regarded Peter MacCullum Cancer Center (https://www.petermac.org/). So a successful trial at NH is likely to result in a much wider state-wide roll out and some stronger reference sites.

[Minerbarejet]

What is also important is that the state of Victoria operates its public hospitals in a group, of which Northern Health is just one. Also part of the group is the well regarded Peter MacCullum Cancer Center (https://www.petermac.org/). So a successful trial at NH is likely to result in a much wider state-wide roll out and some stronger reference sites.
This is a commercial agreement, I believe, so all the trials needed for verification have been done.

[mondograss]

This is a commercial agreement, I believe, so all the trials needed for verification have been done.

Good, so just need to see that NH uses it effectively and finds value in it and then the other hospitals in the state are likely to follow suit.

[barney]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/384380/361302.pdf

Bryan must think the shares are good buying at $1.25.

[Maxtrade]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/384380/361302.pdf

Bryan must think the shares are good buying at $1.25.

Yes, so did we. Quite a surge of demand pushing SP through to close today. Positive sign for directional movement. Soon to push through back into 1.4 plus range as expected (see previous posts).

More positive news in the works prompting the volume up on close likely behind the scenes.

[barney]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/leaving-pacific-edge-success

It must have been pretty trying at times but what a great job he's done.

[Maxtrade]

Wait for it, next buying push will see SP back in high 1.4's next level soon enough.

[LoungeLizzard]

Up 5c today on good volume. Wonder what that is all about?

[Maxtrade]

Up 5c today on good volume. Wonder what that is all about?

Yes good volume, and quite concentrated in the afternoon trade. Always have those in the know. Might also just be rebounding back into the 1.4's anyway though as expected to do. Will take more positive news announcements to bring 1.5's

[850man]

That was a surprise I wasn't expecting... 5.8 million shares sold end of week dropping the SP by almost 6%! Any thoughts on what happened there?

[Harrie]

That was a surprise I wasn't expecting... 5.8 million shares sold end of week dropping the SP by almost 6%! Any thoughts on what happened there?

Yep, good news needs to keep coming, like a more positive response from the AUA about Cxb efficacy or contracts from more medical institutions, or a significant increase in lab throughput etc otherwise the current valuation is pretty toppy based on current fundamentals, hence expect a lot of volatility as perceptions about take up of Cxb change.
The cap rate on PEB atm suggests that the market expects a significant uptake over the next year or so and are happy to sit it out...well most anyway. On the other hand someone may have needed to buy big on Xmas presents!

[davflaws]

The cap rate on PEB atm suggests that the market expects a significant uptake over the next year or so and are happy to sit it out...well most anyway. On the other hand someone may have needed to buy big on Xmas presents!

The Xmas break is a good time to build a deck.

[Count von Count]

Funds rebalancing, 850 man

[Maxtrade]

Funds rebalancing, 850 man

Yes, PEB SP increased so much this year, some pre Christmas funds rebalancing by the looks of it seeing values would have proportionally increased so much for PEB holdings. Upwards trend to resume once end of year rebalancing resets.

[Harrie]

Yes, PEB SP increased so much this year, some pre Christmas funds rebalancing by the looks of it seeing values would have proportionally increased so much for PEB holdings. Upwards trend to resume once end of year rebalancing resets.

Nah. Rebalance is just another word for a reality check. You are not going to rebalance downwards if there is a frequent string of positive announcements about adoption. In fact institutions will rebalance upwards should that be the case. Its just changing perceptions over the length of time it is going to take to attain significantly more adoption and with it significantly more lab throughput. In the absence of news there will always be a rethink of strategy driven by uncertainty.

[Harrie]

Having said that it’s just a matter of time before increasing adoption takes place. If a medical facility like Johns Hopkins widely adopts Cxb as a clinical basis for determining whether a cystoscopy is necessary then the SP will react very positively. I would not want to be short if that announcement was made, nor if any other significant adoption announcement was made.

[Harrie]

No news....uncertainty....cover the downside.... slow slide backwards

[DonkeyKong]

No news....uncertainty....cover the downside.... slow slide backwards
The results of the Singapore study should come out soon, ie early 2022. Hopefully with good news :)

[Harrie]

Indeed DK but they need more than a successful study result they need adoption on a bigger scale to support the current valuation

[Minerbarejet]

This came out this morning adding further " grist for the mill".

https://www.docwirenews.com/gu-oncology-now/gu-oncology-now-journal/use-of-cxbladder-monitor-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-reduces-frequency-of-surveillance-cystoscopy/

[Mel]

This came out this morning adding further " grist for the mill".

https://www.docwirenews.com/gu-oncology-now/gu-oncology-now-journal/use-of-cxbladder-monitor-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-reduces-frequency-of-surveillance-cystoscopy/
Thanks for posting that Minerbarejet, we're hoping that 'CxBladder Monitor is “emblematic of a new normal” in urology.'

[bulyak]

As a refresher, did PEB ever get that lump sum payment/reimbursement for the initial testing that was done as part of the ramp up to full approval by medicare, medicaid, and blue cross/blue shield. I think it was mentioned that there could be a reimbursement payment of something like 30 Million on lab testing of a normal invoiced value of 90+ Million. It was an optimistic view, that I've yet to find any follow up on? Would have been a nice little non dilutive cash bump.. Probably missed an announcement around this in the last 18 months of share price excitement!

[psychic]

As a refresher, did PEB ever get that lump sum payment/reimbursement for the initial testing that was done as part of the ramp up to full approval by medicare, medicaid, and blue cross/blue shield. I think it was mentioned that there could be a reimbursement payment of something like 30 Million on lab testing of a normal invoiced value of 90+ Million. It was an optimistic view, that I've yet to find any follow up on? Would have been a nice little non dilutive cash bump.. Probably missed an announcement around this in the last 18 months of share price excitement!

No, payment not received nor was it ever very likely imo.
Cxbladder is still not covered by Bluecross or any of the US Insurers. With sleight of hand there was the announcement that United Healthcare now covered the tests but this was under its medicare policy only, not those it underwrites itself.

[850man]

SP down 15% in 2 weeks, time for some good news methinks

[winner69]

SP down 15% in 2 weeks, time for some good news methinks

Wonder if the new guy can spin yarns as good as David did for years

[Harrie]

With new funds raised @ $1.35 and the employment of more "marketing" executives to promote the advantages of Cxb, whats happened? In general no news is good news but i'm not sure this applies here.
There is definitely a reassessment of risk on asset inherent here, reflected in the slow decline of the SP

[barney]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/career-decision-led-dunedin

[Retired Doc]

Thanks Barney. Dr Meintjes certainly has the right CV and his US commercial experience will be invaluable. I remain convinced of the high value CxBladder.

[LEMON]

Not heard much from PEB, wondering what they are doing will all those millions, hopefully great things.

Anyone know the Q1 announcement date? Thanks

[winner69]

Not heard much from PEB, wondering what they are doing will all those millions, hopefully great things.

Anyone know the Q1 announcement date? Thanks

A cynical non-believer might say ......what will they do with all those millions? ..... much the same as they have done with the previous $180 million.

[Ex-CFO]

With new funds raised @ $1.35 and the employment of more "marketing" executives to promote the advantages of Cxb, whats happened? In general no news is good news but i'm not sure this applies here.
There is definitely a reassessment of risk on asset inherent here, reflected in the slow decline of the SP
Market waiting for some news of new sales!!. Hopefully, more DHB sign up.

[Walter]

DHBs sales are never going to save this company. They have been great in trialing the tech. The only way it can succeed is to sell big overseas.

[zs_cecil]

Not sure if this one has been shared before in the forum. It is a recent research paper on CXBladder Resolve.


The Diagnostic Performance of Cxbladder Resolve, Alone and in
Combination with Other Cxbladder Tests, in the Identification
and Priority Evaluation of Patients at Risk for Urothelial
Carcinoma


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.auajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1097/JU.0000000000002135&ved=2ahUKEwiLv_yv0Pb1AhXISGwGHatiBOYQFnoECBUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3k-jazQOD7hCPTbP_PYtEJ

[Mel]

No news from PEB is not good news for the share price - at risk of dropping below $1 mark!

[t.rexjr]

No news from PEB is not good news for the share price - at risk of dropping below $1 mark!

The good news is the gap in the charts looks to have closed. The bad news is, who knows where it's heading from here...

[Sideshow Bob]

No news from PEB is not good news for the share price - at risk of dropping below $1 mark!

Maybe the new CEO hasn't learnt from the DD playbook yet??

[thegreatestben]

He's pretty active on Linkedin advertising for more staff!

[LoungeLizzard]

PEB really need to get a newsletter out to shareholders to give them a sense that things are happening behind the scenes. At the moment, since DD left there has been complete silence and the SP has drifted down. In the absence of financials these type of more speculative stocks rely on positive market sentiment and PEB had that for some time largely due to DD. The new CEO needs to be responsive to shareholders concerns as expressed by the on-going sell off. Shareholders will not respond well to future capital raises -if there are any - unless they see the CEO/Board becoming more active.

[850man]

Investor updates are out twice a year, next one due April. Seeing there was a capital raise and thereafter a slow and consistent SP decline, I agree we need more frequent comms. They have a veritable swarm or sales folks in the USA, I trust they are making headway with customers and insurers over there as well as in Asia and Oz in response to all the money shareholders have given them

[Greekwatchdog]

Well we are due on update re Singapore. John Hopkins in the US I am very interested in seeing they have been reviewing for last 3.5 years from memory. How long did it take KP? 6 Years? I suspect Covid has slowed Sales teams getting in seeing the Sales people they need to.

[Mel]

Options scheme for new CEO - exercise price on the low side methinks!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387519

[zs_cecil]

Options scheme for new CEO - exercise price on the low side methinks!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387519

The option prices are all above the current market price. Our CEO needs to work harder to make those options valuable.

Cheer up and all the best to our CEO. :-)

[Mel]

The option prices are all above the current market price. Our CEO needs to work harder to make those options valuable.

Cheer up and all the best to our CEO. :-)
He should be able to achieve the option price without even getting out of bed.....I say optimistically :)