PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[Shareguy]

Does not give me much confidence when the option price of $1.15 and $1.25 in 5 years is so low. What am I missing here when the share price was $1.50 recently?

[winner69]

Does not give me much confidence when the option price of $1.15 and $1.25 in 5 years is so low. What am I missing here when the share price was $1.50 recently?

Options are not the likes for you and me .... they there to enrich the CEO if he hangs around and doesn't stuff up .... like hardly anything or heaps over the years ...but as they are said to 'align with shareholder interests' if the shareprice goes to 3 bucks what's a few million between friends when everybody is happy and rich ....just a small bonus for the CEO

[McPussPuss]

She's tanking, call in the PPT

[850man]

She's tanking, call in the PPT

You're not wrong there... down over 30% in a month!! any theories on the freefall?

[BigBob]

You're not wrong there... down over 30% in a month!! any theories on the freefall?

Lack of news....

[winner69]

She's tanking, call in the PPT

Hang in there puss. Keep the faith and keep believing. Maybe buy even more.

But you might curse me for suggesting that when the market wakes up to PEB not really having anything of value or what doctors want ….and the shares plunge to penny stock level.

[Sideshow Bob]

Still a company valued at $770m, turning over about $14m a year, and losing about $18m.

After being listed over 19 years.....

[winner69]

Still a company valued at $770m, turning over about $14m a year, and losing about $18m.

After being listed over 19 years.....

.... and the chief Storyteller apparently no telling any more stories

[Sgt Pepper]

Still a company valued at $770m, turning over about $14m a year, and losing about $18m.

After being listed over 19 years.....

Is this unprecedented in NZ for a stock to be listed and not makes a profit in 19 years??

[whatsup]

Is this unprecedented in NZ for a stock to be listed and not makes a profit in 19 years??

St Pepper, you ant see nothing yet !! WDT circa 1986 -2022 , 39 years no profit BUT $110,000,000 losses carried forward, howzat !!

[winner69]

St Pepper, you ant see nothing yet !! WDT circa 1986 -2022 , 39 years no profit BUT $110,000,000 losses carried forward, howzat !!

PEB's ACCUMULATED LOSSES ARE $180,000,000

That's what mighty good story telling can produce

[LoungeLizzard]

PEB's ACCUMULATED LOSSES ARE $180,000,000

That's what mighty good story telling can produce

Good grief - sobering stuff...
As a holder I am perplexed why PEB have gone silent. Nothing at all from the new CEO - is he still on holiday or what? Those - like me - who participated in the capital raise are sitting on big losses. Fortunately I was into PEB way before that and sitting on gains overall, but I must admit my finger is hovering over the SELL button. if there isn't some positive operational news soon, I might have to assume that things are not going well and cut loose.

[winner69]

Good grief - sobering stuff...
As a holder I am perplexed why PEB have gone silent. Nothing at all from the new CEO - is he still on holiday or what? Those - like me - who participated in the capital raise are sitting on big losses. Fortunately I was into PEB way before that and sitting on gains overall, but I must admit my finger is hovering over the SELL button. if there isn't some positive operational news soon, I might have to assume that things are not going well and cut loose.

Not for me to tell you what to do but you must be getting a bit distraught to think about selling

Doesn't seem that long ago the share price was over $1.50 and punters fell over each other to get a slice of the cheap shares at $1.35

That's the capital markets for you

But one day you might see those 'hundreds of thousands of tests' or was it only 'tens of thousands' - can't recall what Swann said

[LoungeLizzard]

[QUOTE=winner69;943560]Not for me to tell you what to do but you must be getting a bit distraught to think about selling

Doesn't seem that long ago the share price was over $1.50 and punters fell over each other to get a slice of the cheap shares at $1.35

That's the capital markets for you

But one day you might see those 'hundreds of thousands of tests' or was it only 'tens of thousands' - can't recall what Swann said[/QUOTE

Fortunately I still have profits that I can take - even if they are much less than they were a few months ago. :cool:
I am not ready to sell just yet, but I don't think I'd be the only one concerned at the slide in SP. It is normal for stocks such as PEB to slide in the absence of positive news, but I am surprised that there seems to be no support at any level. Of course, if all those new salespeople are actually doing what they were employed to do, then there may some good news coming and all will be forgiven. It was always going to be wild ride.

[Cyclical]

In the context of the present market, it doesn't seem so bad. Plenty of "quality" stocks out there that have shed ~20% or so recently. It's only natural for the more speculative ones to take a greater hit in these times. Diversification is where it's at.

[Sideshow Bob]

Pacific Edge falls under $1 | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz) (https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-falls-under-1)

[bulyak]

M2C. In years gone past this company would continue to defend its share price. Never a good sign. Those days are behind us. Its a bear market ATM. Ride the wave. The market cap should reflect what the company is worth. Not always the case, but still a good guideline. Currently sitting at 785 million NZD circa 500 million USD. Any international diagnostic company would easily pay 2 Billion USD for this company. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next 6 months.

[psychic]

M2C. In years gone past this company would continue to defend its share price. Never a good sign. Those days are behind us. Its a bear market ATM. Ride the wave. The market cap should reflect what the company is worth. Not always the case, but still a good guideline. Currently sitting at 785 million NZD circa 500 million USD. Any international diagnostic company would easily pay 2 Billion USD for this company. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next 6 months.

Show those international diagnstic companies some evidence of significant uptake and they just might! Pacific Edge have not, and I will counter - will not, produce $ proof any time soon. Whole lot of hope priced in and the market will come to terms with this in time.

[bulyak]

Ha. When PEB becomes a revenue valuation model it will be worth well more then 2 billion USD. Agree that we would like to see more tests going through. But there is traction. To build the approvals and networks to date, you'd be looking at a 5 year project at a cost of more like 3 billion USD. A part of me feels this group should de-list now. There is no value in shareholder fatigue playing out, and under valuing a company like this. M&A Acquisitions in Diagnostics have never been higher on the tailwinds of Covid Testing. The big players have never had so much cash and are paying exorbitant premiums for companies like PEB. No mention of testing numbers or revenues in any of these deals. Perkin Elmer, Baxter, Fisher they are all paying premiums for these start ups pre significant revenue. But most of them are all VC backed, they know what they are in for. Traditional NZ NZX investors (institutions included) only want to back revenue investment models.

[psychic]

Ha. When PEB becomes a revenue valuation model it will be worth well more then 2 billion USD. Agree that we would like to see more tests going through. But there is traction. To build the approvals and networks to date, you'd be looking at a 5 year project at a cost of more like 3 billion USD. A part of me feels this group should de-list now. There is no value in shareholder fatigue playing out, and under valuing a company like this. M&A Acquisitions in Diagnostics have never been higher on the tailwinds of Covid Testing. The big players have never had so much cash and are paying exorbitant premiums for companies like PEB. No mention of testing numbers or revenues in any of these deals. Perkin Elmer, Baxter, Fisher they are all paying premiums for these start ups pre significant revenue. But most of them are all VC backed, they know what they are in for. Traditional NZ NZX investors (institutions included) only want to back revenue investment models.

Hmm. Why wern't the big diagnostic firms buying this at 17 cents or at any time in the past couple of decades or so? I'd imagine they'd recognise potential in the science if they saw it.

It seems the tests are useful, but not (yet) sufficiently proven to be disruptive. Maybe big Pharma think they never will be?

I am not suggesting they can't or won't get there, but there is no proof yet of meaningful adoption or traction.

[bulyak]

So by adoption, does the Kaiser, BC and BS, DHBs in NZ and other insurers in the US not count? Or are you expecting to see tests increase by 1,000 times to justify adoption and traction. The share price at 17cents NZD was a different company with no approved refund contracts in place. But it was obvious that they were on the cards. So yes, the big diagnostic companies missed a significant opportunity when the market cap was under 75 million NZD. But the world was different then. The covid outcome was unknown, markets were unstable, and there wasnt the free flowing cash that there is now in biotech. There is no secrete sauce to PEB, its an operational flow of testing, that is the IP. To build that would cost billions. The disruption opportunity is tricky. Urologist have always been very hesitant due to the low cost of the PEB test. They quite like the 10K traditional test, especially when they indirectly clip the ticket at about 20%. But this tactic is slowly being phased out. And to answer your question about "Why big pharma wasnt buying it over the past 2 decades. Simple, because they knew the risk and just how much cash would be required to get it where it is now. Sadly to many investors, like yourself, are coming to the end of to many flash backs to announcements that they thought would rocket the share price. But hey thanks for the cash contribution to get it where it is now!!!!! Couldnt have done it without you:)

[psychic]

So by adoption, does the Kaiser, BC and BS, DHBs in NZ and other insurers in the US not count? Or are you expecting to see tests increase by 1,000 times to justify adoption and traction. The share price at 17cents NZD was a different company with no approved refund contracts in place. But it was obvious that they were on the cards. So yes, the big diagnostic companies missed a significant opportunity when the market cap was under 75 million NZD. But the world was different then. The covid outcome was unknown, markets were unstable, and there wasnt the free flowing cash that there is now in biotech. There is no secrete sauce to PEB, its an operational flow of testing, that is the IP. To build that would cost billions. The disruption opportunity is tricky. Urologist have always been very hesitant due to the low cost of the PEB test. They quite like the 10K traditional test, especially when they indirectly clip the ticket at about 20%. But this tactic is slowly being phased out. And to answer your question about "Why big pharma wasnt buying it over the past 2 decades. Simple, because they knew the risk and just how much cash would be required to get it where it is now. Sadly to many investors, like yourself, are coming to the end of to many flash backs to announcements that they thought would rocket the share price. But hey thanks for the cash contribution to get it where it is now!!!!! Couldnt have done it without you:)

I don't know what BC and BS are but have seen no numbers yet to demonstrate that Kaiser are using the tests in any meaningful way.

Not all the DHB's are using the tests but it is in the clinical pathway for some. This adoption in NZ over several years has not transferred to meaningful growth in NZ revenue. It is a small base agreed but with tests here costing 1/4 (?) of the US CMS price I'd have thought NZ sales might have been encouraging and suggest how the US markets might track?

Insurers in the US do not cover Cxbladder. United has a medicare policy that mirrors that of medicare but United does not cover the tests under its own policies

Medicare cover the tests where "medically necessary" . I've posted here why I think they don't fall under that category often and have yet to see any evidence that CMS "approval" has transferred to useage.

You say that the tests are cheap but in the US they can be more expensive than an in office cystoscopy. The tests are a good adjunct to the current gold standard but are not recommended by the AUA nor are they covered in the guidelines.

There is plenty of competeition in the field of bladder cancer diagnosis and the race is on. I would not be too sure about the moat you seem to think their IP offers.


edit. if you mean Bluecross blueshield, (BC BS) they do not cover Cxbladder

[bulyak]

Curious. What non evasive diagnostic are you referring to which presents a commercial equivalent as the CX Bladder?

[Harrie]

There are a number of factors and imponderables at play here which are affecting risk on asset perceptions being translated back into the current SP:

1. The most important factor is Lab throughput. Pacific edge reckon they have the capacity for 126000 tests. This may have increased over the last few months
2. We do not know how many tests are being performed but I think it would be fair to say nowhere near that number at the moment.
3. Is it in PEB's DNA not to report significant uptakes in tests prior to reporting time if this was happening or do they "surprise" the market with higher than expected positive news at reporting time?
4. If Cxb has a >95% NPV and supposedly a better stat than a cysto on determining the existence of BC why is it not more widely accepted by all urologists and the AUA?
5. Do the AUA have a vested interest in discounting the effectiveness of this procedure relative to cystos.
6. How influential are the AUA with insurance companies? "medically necessary" can easily be ruled out if the AUA prefer to recommend cystos vs Cxb to their association. I submit that even KP urologists do not really want to go against their associations authority.
7. Is there actually any meaningful competition that have built a significant amount of acceptable comparative data over a long period that is superior to Cxb?

So if we accept that Cxb, in terms of bladder cancer diagnosis, IS superior to all other forms of both existing and potential competition then surely its just a matter of time before it becomes the standard. IMO it appears to me that the AUA are stone walling its adoption. They have reluctantly agreed that it has some utility, which is a change from a few years ago where it was ignored.

[davidkong988]

There isn't any other non invasive diagnostic method equivalent to Cx bladder yet.
DHB in AKL has started using Cx bladder test to triage microhaematuria referral but only on small number of cases.

[Harrie]

What more is there to know then: No credible competitive non invasive test with as higher NPV performing better than the current standard. This can't be true because if it was you would expect a surge in adoption. After 7 years of detailed data and analysis proving its efficacy something is going wrong somewhere. This is more of a market movement based on growth vs value assets, its a slow loss of faith that it will ever be adopted fully rather than being used if "medically necessary". Psychic can tell us whats not happening, who can tell us why? I'm just putting it out there.

[LoungeLizzard]

What more is there to know then: No credible competitive non invasive test with as higher NPV performing better than the current standard. This can't be true because if it was you would expect a surge in adoption. After 7 years of detailed data and analysis proving its efficacy something is going wrong somewhere. This is more of a market movement based on growth vs value assets, its a slow loss of faith that it will ever be adopted fully rather than being used if "medically necessary". Psychic can tell us whats not happening, who can tell us why? I'm just putting it out there.

The obvious answer for PEBS glacial adoption is that that is the pace by which the medical establishment - particularly in the US - moves at when it comes to any sort of departure from "normal" medical practice. The startup costs and regulatory hurdles are dauntingly massive. You have to have a "slam-dunk" product to get any traction at all, and even then you are fighting on a number of fronts - medical councils, clinical experts, insurance providers etc. The medical profession can be a bit of a closed shop at times, but at the end of the day I still think that PEBS products represents a step change in procedure, one that I think - if I was a patient - would be highly preferable, at least in the initial stages, to a pretty awful, invasive procedure.
I read that a lot of the capital raise funds was going towards hiring more sales people - which is the right approach (no point in having a shiny new lab if people haven't heard of the product.) Hopefully we're going to hear soon about how sales are going - they have to be tracking upwards fairly steeply. If they have stalled or gone backwards then that, I fear, could be the end of the road for PEB.

[850man]

... I read that a lot of the capital raise funds was going towards hiring more sales people - which is the right approach (no point in having a shiny new lab if people haven't heard of the product.) Hopefully we're going to hear soon about how sales are going - they have to be tracking upwards fairly steeply. If they have stalled or gone backwards then that, I fear, could be the end of the road for PEB.

PEB trumpeted in Nov that they had 30 sales people now dedicated to the US market. An ROI on these highly paid people is essential in their next report. If all they have done is bought coffees and lunches and not signed any business and brought in additional revenue, all investors will be rightly up in arms

[Mel]

PEB trumpeted in Nov that they had 30 sales people now dedicated to the US market. An ROI on these highly paid people is essential in their next report. If all they have done is bought coffees and lunches and not signed any business and brought in additional revenue, all investors will be rightly up in arms
An investor update is due next month (March)

[Maxtrade]

The obvious answer for PEBS glacial adoption is that that is the pace by which the medical establishment - particularly in the US - moves at when it comes to any sort of departure from "normal" medical practice. The startup costs and regulatory hurdles are dauntingly massive. You have to have a "slam-dunk" product to get any traction at all, and even then you are fighting on a number of fronts - medical councils, clinical experts, insurance providers etc. The medical profession can be a bit of a closed shop at times, but at the end of the day I still think that PEBS products represents a step change in procedure, one that I think - if I was a patient - would be highly preferable, at least in the initial stages, to a pretty awful, invasive procedure.
I read that a lot of the capital raise funds was going towards hiring more sales people - which is the right approach (no point in having a shiny new lab if people haven't heard of the product.) Hopefully we're going to hear soon about how sales are going - they have to be tracking upwards fairly steeply. If they have stalled or gone backwards then that, I fear, could be the end of the road for PEB.

500,000 shares sold 3c above market price pre close yesterday. Ahead of report some larger buyers thinking current SP looking attractive.

[t.rexjr]

500,000 shares sold 3c above market price pre close yesterday. Ahead of report some larger buyers thinking current SP looking attractive.

Wouldn't read anything into that

[Walter]

Currently it is on the AUA sometimes tolerated list. If it makes it to the recommended list litigation lawyers could have a field day with non users. Will that ever happen? Lots of the share price says yes, but I'm now cynical enough of the medical system in the USA to be drifting towards no. The fact the Australia and Singapore have a very slow ramp is further cause for concern.

[Harrie]

Currently it is on the AUA sometimes tolerated list. If it makes it to the recommended list litigation lawyers could have a field day with non users. Will that ever happen? Lots of the share price says yes, but I'm now cynical enough of the medical system in the USA to be drifting towards no. The fact the Australia and Singapore have a very slow ramp is further cause for concern.

If its that good and also non invasive it will eventually be adopted. It has to because more and more clients when they are presented with blood in the urine and see a urologist will have read up about diagnostic methods in determining what could be causing it and how to test for it. I would go for Cxb any day of the week rather than risk a cysto with the risk of side issues. Its not uncommon for medical facilities to be slow with adoption. PEB need to work with the AUA and work out what the issue is. It can't be lack of clinical evidence after 7 years of data collection....surely?
PEB is one of those companies that just need a hint of a new institutional revenue source and you could see a move of 40%+ in the SP with no sellers in-between
keep in mind also that they are working on non invasive tests for other common diseases.

[psychic]

Are the tests that good? Are they good enough to replace cystoscopy? If they were as you say, and there was sufficient evidence available to support adoption, then I say you would have proof in uptake by now. Simple.

The AUA don't recommend Cxbladder at all, you will find no specific mention of it in the guidelines. All they have done is to say (with the very weakest of recommendations) is that urinary biomarkers might be used in certain situations as an adjunct. But generally, the use is not recommended.

It is very difficult for us to understand the why's in such a (well to me anyway) complex game. If we are to believe what PE tell us, then yes, the tests would seem to be an easy choice over cystoscopy. But the stats bandied about, the NPV etc perhaps do not provide the complete picture. Someone might like to clarify for me but I think the results will depend on the the group being tested, the grade of cancer, and role of the test etc. What are the false positives? How reliable and independent were the studies (most of the studies are by staff or associates of Pacific Edge)

So I now simply look for evidence that what Pacific Edge say is happening, is happening. And I have yet to see it, on oh so many fronts over the years. I've seem some encouraging independent studies on quite a few of the Cxbladde tests, but most seem to finish off with the "more evidence required' sort of thing.

I will attempt to embed a comparative table from a recent study and provide the link. Is Cxbladder monitor the best choice?
This suggests that from 1000 patients Cxbladder Monitor would have avoided 500 cystoscopies while the newer tests Uromonitor and Epicheck would have avoided 706 and 740 respectively. Cxbladder was lowest of the four, yet highest in unnecesssry cysto's (false positives)

How certain should we be?

13576

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2588931121001838

[Harrie]

That's pretty fair comment Psychic thanks.

I think that we are all a little bewildered by what is being put out there and whether the tests have been conducted over the same group of 1000 people at the same stage. Uromonitor and Epicheck show some pretty impressive results but over what time frame and samples of different stages have they been conducted?

Also, is there any evidence that the AUA are recommending any UBT's? It looks like its just the same old story waiting for a hundred years of evidence!

We know that survey was published by European oncology, but again some of the UBT's have not been around long enough for any performance reliability, and that is pretty clearly stated.

I would have thought that KP would have done a lot of research before adopting Cxb. Thats a positive for Cxb.

DNA UBT types appear to be new to market and less proven than MRNa types.(Cxb)

[psychic]

Harry, sorry no -the comparison has been made by pooling the results of published studies, so it is not as if a group of 1000 BC patients have each been tested by the four markers. But I imagine it would have only been published if the method and reasoning were valid. I see Yair Loten was involved in some capacity, a name that is on the Author list of many studies into bladder cancer diagnosis, I think he was also on the advisery panel for PEB at one time?

And yes, the other tests are in various stages of commercialisation. Who knows if they will make it either. I guess my point was that Cxb Monitor was supposed to be the mover and shaker with the high NPV etc but you can see that it can be bettered and arguably, it might be the unacceptable level of false positives stopping it from gaining acceptance, as I think appies to the other CXb tests..

Yes KP have completed a lot of research over the years into ways they might reduce cystoscopies, well before PE approached them with Triage. But go back and look at the announcements. Years that "trial" went on, and nothing was announced. Essentially they didn't go with Triage. Later, PE say they went with monitor (?) and later still, all cxb tests. But I am very very doubtful they are using many as I am doubtful CMS are.

[Maxtrade]

Lack of public updates from new CEO after investing proceeds from Cap Raise for new US based sales team. CEO and management invested well aware of decline in SP. Haven't made announcement to support or prevent such, likelihood waiting for March announcement to have some impact rather than feather things in the interim. Giving the sales team time to become established. Timing not ideal with Pandemic/Ukraine. Most likely saving any positive news may balance out the overall global poor market conditions. Update most likely won't show much advancement in immediate revenue/sales, but shareholders can hope indication of progress with networking and relationships forming for integration.

The fact still remains, if you asked anyone who has had a cystoscopy if they would rather have used cx-bladder if it were available to them, pretty sure we know what the answer would be. Main reason SP has been declining is obviously a combination of overall market influences of recent months, pandemic, interest rates and Putin's insanity. At the point now where it could be viewed the perfect storm and SP at a bargain to last cap raise 1.35 and recent SP 1.5 plus. Coming out of pandemic, world re-opening up, boarders opening. Tables very soon turning against Russia, Putin losing following of the Russian people themselves including his own troops. The 'Fear factor' involved will subside, likely now to see a pretty solid rebound in market and especially Tech stocks (PEB following this trend). Not unlikely could see these bounces as swiftly as the increases in PEB SP seen last year when jumped 20 - 40% within ~24-48hrs each time.

[psychic]

A man see's what he wants to see I guess...

If I were asked how I'd like my cancer diagnosed, I'd probabaly go with the recommendation of my Urologist. But I do recognise that personal choice over science and informed opinion has become something of a thing these days.

If there was ever a time when a simple, reliable, established home test might defer an office cystoscopy, the last few years have been extraordinary.

If a share price makes huge gains on the back of misleading and/or generally misunderstood announcements, my worry would be that it can fall as hard, if not harder, when the market sees no follow through. Been there, done that. Bloody hurts.

[LoungeLizzard]

A man see's what he wants to see I guess...

If I were asked how I'd like my cancer diagnosed, I'd probabaly go with the recommendation of my Urologist. But I do recognise that personal choice over science and informed opinion has become something of a thing these days.

If there was ever a time when a simple, reliable, established home test might defer an office cystoscopy, the last few years have been extraordinary.

If a share price makes huge gains on the back of misleading and/or generally misunderstood announcements, my worry would be that it can fall as hard, if not harder, when the market sees no follow through. Been there, done that. Bloody hurts.

I'm not sure that's a fair representation. It's not a case of personal opinion over science - it's all science. PEB have largely cleared the regulatory hurdles, they've done the trials and the results are encouraging. Whether you think the results or even the product itself is worthy of it's share price or market attention, then that is another matter, and one for the individual investor to judge for themselves. No one has a crystal ball that can give's them the right to say their opinion is the definitive one and everyone else's is uninformed.
As I've said, this year will be a make or break year for PEB for many investors. They've got the beginnings of market traction and they've got the funds and sales force. if that starts to translate into throughput then the SP will bounce rapidly as it has done before. If not, the market will deliver i's judgement.

[psychic]

Maxtrade suggested folk would choose Cxbladder over a cystoscopy. Unless one has the necessary background to make an informed decision about the reliability of a diagnostic test then I think most, with their lives at stake, would follow the recommendation of someone who is able to make an informed decision. The AUA make informed decisions, and they do not recommend it. The tests are not insured.

I didn't for a moment intend that everyone should think what I do or suggest opinions other than mine wer misinformed. This is a forum, we discuss stocks.

[LoungeLizzard]

Maxtrade suggested folk would choose Cxbladder over a cystoscopy. Unless one has the necessary background to make an informed decision about the reliability of a diagnostic test then I think most, with their lives at stake, would follow the recommendation of someone who is able to make an informed decision. The AUA make informed decisions, and they do not recommend it. The tests are not insured.

I didn't for a moment intend that everyone should think what I do or suggest opinions other than mine wer misinformed. This is a forum, we discuss stocks.

Fair enough. I agree this is a discussion, that encompasses all types of investors with different approaches to investing and different appetites for risk.I didn't see where you were going with "personal choice over science" as if that was a binary thing. Nor with SP movements on the back of misleading announcements. Is that a PEB thing or a general comment?

CXbladder is not designed to replace cystoscopy, rather to augment it. It's not an either or. Where there is, for a example a small amount of urine in the blood (hematuria), the options in the past have been to either ignore it, or go through an invasive procedure that may turn out, in many or most cases, to be completely unnecessary. CXbladder is accurate enough to be able to give an indication of a potential problem ( in which case a cystoscopy may be requested) or to give an all-clear (perhaps with a follow up scan). It's a useful middle path, diagnostic tool. The AUA's own journal of urology said as much in it's performance trial of CXbladder last year:

"For various reasons, many patients who present to primary care with hematuria are not referred for workup. However, the availability of a highly reli- able urine test that enriches the diagnostic yield in the hematuria population improves the proportion of at-risk patients being evaluated, resulting in a higher rate of early UC detection in the patients who are referred for workup. Cxb’s high level of clinical resolution to rule out patients without UC and prioritize others is likely to reduce referral time and enable specialist resources to be focused on patients most likely to have UC, providing a
clinically meaningful benefit and reducing the cost of care."

There re many health providers here in NZ, AUS and the US (including Medicare) that are now using CXBladder. They wouldn't do so if they didn't think it was diagnostically safe. The evidence is already out there, that it is a safe, useful diagnostic tool. The challenge is to get greater uptake. If PEB could get say, Johns Hopkins, on board, wide scale acceptance would follow. And we could all retire as millionaires.

[Maxtrade]

Maxtrade suggested folk would choose Cxbladder over a cystoscopy. Unless one has the necessary background to make an informed decision about the reliability of a diagnostic test then I think most, with their lives at stake, would follow the recommendation of someone who is able to make an informed decision. The AUA make informed decisions, and they do not recommend it. The tests are not insured.

I didn't for a moment intend that everyone should think what I do or suggest opinions other than mine wer misinformed. This is a forum, we discuss stocks.

Cxbladder can be used in conjunction with Cytoscopy. It can help indicate when a Cytoscopy can be recommended to confirm a diagnosis. The advantage is in many cases it can be used to indicate when a Cytoscopy may NOT be needed. ie a Precursor to assist. Non-invasive diagnostic laboratory tests like Cxbladder may be able to accurately rule out bladder cancer without the expense or discomfort of an invasive procedure such as cystoscopy. Multiple trials have demonstrated Cxbladder’s superior performance versus other urine-based tests in accurately ruling out and detecting bladder cancer. There are numerous peer reviewed scientific published studies on Cxbladder urine tests correlated with confirmation of cytoscopy results. The results are very positive. This cancer test has be shown it can reduce the number of invasive procedures required. This is where Cxbladder excels and can establish its place. That is what I meant about stating for those who could opt for a less invasive bladder test versus going straight into a Cytoscopy. Hope that helps clarify.

[psychic]

Yes, agree with that, thanks.

[psychic]

Lounge lizard, yes the misleading announcements comment I made relates to PEB.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Been some time since I've looked at PEB, but I see the price has near halved in the last 6 months. I take it those 'tens of thousands' of tests still haven't eventuated?

[850man]

Been some time since I've looked at PEB, but I see the price has near halved in the last 6 months. I take it those 'tens of thousands' of tests still haven't eventuated?

No news from PEB since their Sept 1/2 year apart from a Dec notification of a contracted deal with Northern Health in Aust. No news in this case not being good news for investors

[DonkeyKong]

No news from PEB since their Sept 1/2 year apart from a Dec notification of a contracted deal with Northern Health in Aust. No news in this case not being good news for investors

There’s meant to be an investor news letter this month. Crossing my fingers and toes for great news.

[McPussPuss]

Looks like the local instos have taken advantage of the current discount to accumulate.

[DonkeyKong]

Looks like the local instos have taken advantage of the current discount to accumulate.
Where/how do you determine this?

[McPussPuss]

Announcement at market close today, Harbour Asset and Jarden have added 20 million shares between them from my interpretation.

[DonkeyKong]

Announcement at market close today, Harbour Asset and Jarden have added 20 million shares between them from my interpretation.
Ah, missed that. Great, hopefully a good sign.

[Mel]

Ah, missed that. Great, hopefully a good sign.
Let's hope they've got wind of something

[winner69]

Ah, missed that. Great, hopefully a good sign.

Good to see one of PEB’s greatest supporters still buying

They deserve to be richly rewarded one day for their loyalty

Must be missing Dave though……apparently in the past when the share price was falling they’d ring Dave.and say ‘Dave, put out another announcement. Doesn’t matter whether its a regurgitation of old news but just make positive’

[red]

Hopefully momentum is gaining in the background and we hear something from Dr Peter Meintjes soon enough. Do we know which date to expect an update?

[Harrie]

In my experience Harbour and Jarden are fairly savvy fund manager investors. They get a leg in by being able to talk to company execs who have a handle on progress. Joe Blow does not get that opportunity.
I cannot imagine that Harbour are buying on spec. Thats not their playbook. That movement over a short time horizon means something. The market is too thin to be playing the pump and dump game IMO, so this looks to me like a longer term hold for them.
Either that or they are trying to make their results look better for Y/E 31st March 2022

[winner69]

In my experience Harbour and Jarden are fairly savvy fund manager investors. They get a leg in by being able to talk to company execs who have a handle on progress. Joe Blow does not get that opportunity.
I cannot imagine that Harbour are buying on spec. Thats not their playbook. That movement over a short time horizon means something. The market is too thin to be playing the pump and dump game IMO, so this looks to me like a longer term hold for them.
Either that or they are trying to make their results look better for Y/E 31st March 2022

They've been holding for years and years

[winner69]

One good story David came out with several years ago was that had a melanoma test ready to go .... was going to distinguish the real bad melanomas as David said its the real bad bad ones thta kill people

Wonder what happened

[thegreatestben]

It's still in their pipeline:
https://www.pacificedgedx.com/products/pipeline/

[Harrie]

They've been holding for years and years

Thats true but why increase their shareholding if they are not convinced that there is value going forward. Doesn't really make sense unless they are propping the SP up to look better at financial Y/E? Unlikely at this point in the month unless they think that by increasing their shareholding, it hypes the speculation and encourages the punters to invest . Bit cynical but the market is full of dirty little tricks

[Brain]

Thats true but why increase their shareholding if they are not convinced that there is value going forward. Doesn't really make sense unless they are propping the SP up to look better at financial Y/E? Unlikely at this point in the month unless they think that by increasing their shareholding, it hypes the speculation and encourages the punters to invest . Bit cynical but the market is full of dirty little tricks

Yeah they probably think there is value in the share but who is to say they are right. If we shareholders have all the info available than from my point of view any decision to buy this share is purely speculation that there will be significant adoption of Cx bladder which we haven’t seen to date. Unless the Instos have inside info (a no no of course) or they have done additional research - polling the opinions of urologists or understanding the position of AUA better then they are taking a punt like the rest of us.

one thing for sure is they haven’t been reading psychic’s posts.

[DonkeyKong]

Thats true but why increase their shareholding if they are not convinced that there is value going forward. Doesn't really make sense unless they are propping the SP up to look better at financial Y/E? Unlikely at this point in the month unless they think that by increasing their shareholding, it hypes the speculation and encourages the punters to invest . Bit cynical but the market is full of dirty little tricks

Given the percentage size of their increases in holdings, 16.55% and 49.61%. I’d hope it’s genuine investment rather than tricks. But I have no idea.

[Mel]

Yeah they probably think there is value in the share but who is to say they are right. If we shareholders have all the info available than from my point of view any decision to buy this share is purely speculation that there will be significant adoption of Cx bladder which we haven’t seen to date. Unless the Instos have inside info (a no no of course) or they have done additional research - polling the opinions of urologists or understanding the position of AUA better then they are taking a punt like the rest of us.

one thing for sure is they haven’t been reading psychic’s posts.
There's always a degree of uncertainty with a business like this - and whether the multiple moves they make in the market will pay off in the long-run. Whilst sales is undoubtedly a process, there is always an element of being in the right place at the right time (and engaging with the right people). At the very least, I would like to see a greater adoption by the DHB's in the NZ market.

[DonkeyKong]

There’s meant to be an investor news letter this month. Crossing my fingers and toes for great news.

I hope today’s announcement wasn’t considered the investor news letter.

[pierre]

I hope today’s announcement wasn’t considered the investor news letter.

I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for a major SP-moving announcement in the upcoming publication. It will only contain items of general interest about PEB's activities, tell us about the new CEO and his plans and continue to express hope for future success.

A major breakthrough of some kind will be announced when - or if - it happens.

[Maxtrade]

I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for a major SP-moving announcement in the upcoming publication. It will only contain items of general interest about PEB's activities, tell us about the new CEO and his plans and continue to express hope for future success.

A major breakthrough of some kind will be announced when - or if - it happens.

PEB does not seem very eager to get their March update announcement out do they. Waiting for something more substantial to hopefully be able to show share holders what benefits have been made from their last Cap Raise. Or hesitant because nothing positive enough to provide support to SP and confidence in existing share holders. Might see SP slide back to recent lows in the 0.8's if nothing follows soon.

[winner69]

PEB does not seem very eager to get their March update announcement out do they. Waiting for something more substantial to hopefully be able to show share holders what benefits have been made from their last Cap Raise. Or hesitant because nothing positive enough to provide support to SP and confidence in existing share holders. Might see SP slide back to recent lows in the 0.8's if nothing follows soon.

Could do the old regurgitate old news in a new way trick...... as long as it's positive it'll do the trick ..... worked well in the past that trick

[pierre]

PEB does not seem very eager to get their March update announcement out do they. Waiting for something more substantial to hopefully be able to show share holders what benefits have been made from their last Cap Raise. Or hesitant because nothing positive enough to provide support to SP and confidence in existing share holders. Might see SP slide back to recent lows in the 0.8's if nothing follows soon.


Could do the old regurgitate old news in a new way trick...... as long as it's positive it'll do the trick ..... worked well in the past that trick

If nothing else, at the very least they should be able to report a bit of extra interest income on the $100 million in the bank from the CR.

The newsletter delay must be due to the new CEO diving deep into the files and checking previous releases to make sure he presents the same previous info in a different way. I'm far from optimistic we will receive any positive surprises this month.

Be good to have the silence broken though to confirm the PEB team hasn't run away to Sth America with all our money!

[winner69]

If nothing else, at the very least they should be able to report a bit of extra interest income on the $100 million in the bank from the CR.

The newsletter delay must be due to the new CEO diving deep into the files and checking previous releases to make sure he presents the same previous info in a different way. I'm far from optimistic we will receive any positive surprises this month.

Be good to have the silence broken though to confirm the PEB team hasn't run away to Sth America with all our money!

Hope Peter Meintjes in going through all Daves papers come to the conclusion that most of what Dave said was well a load of the proverbial and saying to himself 'what have got myself into, should have done more due diligence'

Whatever I like how he puts things on linkedin about his past ..... taken businesses from startup through the "Valley of Death" to profitability...... and excited how he combine advances in biochemistry, therapeutics, software and informatics with elegant business models. ....cooleh

[Maxtrade]

Hope Peter Meintjes in going through all Daves papers come to the conclusion that most of what Dave said was well a load of the proverbial and saying to himself 'what have got myself into, should have done more due diligence'

Whatever I like how he puts things on linkedin about his past ..... taken businesses from startup through the "Valley of Death" to profitability...... and excited how he combine advances in biochemistry, therapeutics, software and informatics with elegant business models. ....cooleh

Surprising the SP seems to be holding for now at 0.90, hopefuls maybe. Lack of update or just the same ol regurgitated news will likely see some larger investors back out until any more solid progress is made, especially seeing DD is no longer aboard. If the funds from Cap Raise have been spent on salaries and targeted US development but there isn't anything substantial to report from it then larger investors that dissipated in the Cap Raise at 1.25/1.35 might be inclined to cut their losses and wait for a more upbeat uptrend to buy back in. Current holders will be hopping for some very positive tangible reports on this update with new management and money in the bank. Pretty stable nerves to hold at this point with such long silence. Looking like they see resistance at 0.90. But if that breaks with just a few larger volume sells then things might be a bit dubious for the SP. Dropped a long way off 1.5 and with no DD to keep boosting positivity and SP look where its already gone 1.5 down to 0.9 after a large Cap Raise.

[Brain]

In June 2020 the shares were trading at 26 c so we cannot complain too much about the price now. The investors that bought in at the capital raise clearly must have thought the company had good prospects and really nothing has changed much since then. When prices slide people get scared and sell which adds to the momentum. I see that a lot on sharetrader - peoples views are governed by the direction of the market rather than the prospects of the company.

[Maxtrade]

In June 2020 the shares were trading at 26 c so we cannot complain too much about the price now. The investors that bought in at the capital raise clearly must have thought the company had good prospects and really nothing has changed much since then. When prices slide people get scared and sell which adds to the momentum. I see that a lot on sharetrader - peoples views are governed by the direction of the market rather than the prospects of the company.


Without any real progress and lack of any positive update. Possible might see SP slide to resistance level around 0.75?

[850man]

In June 2020 the shares were trading at 26 c so we cannot complain too much about the price now. The investors that bought in at the capital raise clearly must have thought the company had good prospects and really nothing has changed much since then. When prices slide people get scared and sell which adds to the momentum. I see that a lot on sharetrader - peoples views are governed by the direction of the market rather than the prospects of the company.

When the cap raise was done, PEB was a $1B company. The price slide since then has dropped it by 25%. IMHO, a company at that valuation should be providing at least quarterly quality updates to it's investors about what they are doing with their contributed funds.

[Greekwatchdog]

Update attached. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/389752/367741.pdf

[t.rexjr]

Update attached. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PEB/389752/367741.pdf

More fluff with little substance and they've avoided giving any test numbers

[pierre]

I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for a major SP-moving announcement in the upcoming publication. It will only contain items of general interest about PEB's activities, tell us about the new CEO and his plans and continue to express hope for future success.

A major breakthrough of some kind will be announced when - or if - it happens.

The newsletter was entirely as expected. Numbers update in May.

[bulyak]

When the cap raise was done, PEB was a $1B company. The price slide since then has dropped it by 25%. IMHO, a company at that valuation should be providing at least quarterly quality updates to it's investors about what they are doing with their contributed funds. Totally agree. All NZX listed companies should have to provide quarterly updates. Its not a mandate of the NZX, but should be. Most privately held companies of any substance provide this kind of update to their shareholders. its good general practice and not burdensome either in todays world.

[winner69]

Totally agree. All NZX listed companies should have to provide quarterly updates. Its not a mandate of the NZX, but should be. Most privately held companies of any substance provide this kind of update to their shareholders. its good general practice and not burdensome either in todays world.

Quarterly reporting for listed companies often leads to poor businesses decisions and short termism .... likedo things not in best interest of the long term to make the quarter look good

[thegreatestben]

I share the frustration of a lack of updates but do like to remind myself of something DD said about them having tests and IP in development they dare not mention or patent. I can't remember exact words but it does seem important to keep information tight in such a competitive market.

[kiwidollabill]

Hope Peter Meintjes in going through all Daves papers come to the conclusion that most of what Dave said was well a load of the proverbial and saying to himself 'what have got myself into, should have done more due diligence'



Long time no post....

There is a new position opening at PEB... https://www.seek.co.nz/job/56404854, note direct to CEO and not via new COO

Some excerpts, someone should ask about this at the next SH meeting.

"Establish and maintain an Enterprise Project Portfolio Office function to ensure all project portfolios, programmes and projects are meeting governance requirements..."

"This is a challenging leadership position...."

[Brain]

Well look at that PEB jumps to 97c probably not as a result of the news letter but maybe because the NBR reports that
four bars say the price drop is not justified.

[Harrie]

I guess what we also need to take into account is that DD has a S...load of shares. Now that he has no direct connection with management, and is not a director, he is not required to disclose any acquisition or disposition of shares.

Some of the current decline in SP given that its a pretty thin market could have been a slow sell down of his shares, however I suspect , as I have noted a couple of months ago, its more to do with very poor communication which can only be based on an unimpressive growth rate to report.

The report is positive enough though, plenty of potential, but that needs to be exploited fairly soon to keep the instos engaged. Just one more big medical facility starting to adopt in a meaningful way could see the SP move upward 50%+ in a day.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar update 28/03.

Pacific Edge's (PEB) share price is down -30% year to date, we view this as unjustified. While we acknowledge the marketforces at play (high growth company with long-dated cash flows) we think this is overdone given the lack of newsflow andcontinue to see PEB as offering an attractive risk/reward proposition. At 22x 12m forward and 11x 24m forward EV/salesPEB is by no means 'cheap', however, over the medium-term we expect the stock to remain newsflow driven, which is likelypositively skewed. Having a definitive view on materiality and timing of newsflow is a challenging task but in this report weoutline the near-term catalysts that are likely to drive the share price and reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating.

NZX Code PEB
Share price NZ$0.93
Target price NZ$1.35 (from 1.60)
Risk rating High
Issued shares 804.4m
Market cap NZ$748m
Avg daily turnover 827.6k (NZ$1,026k)
Financials: Mar/ 21A 22E 23E 24E
NPAT* (NZ$m) -14.4 -18.4 -16.4 -7.9
EPS* (NZc) -2.0 -2.4 -2.0 -1.0
EPS growth* (%) 38.5 -19.2 15.7 51.5
DPS (NZc) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Imputation (%) 0 0 0 0
*Based on normalised profits
Valuation (x) 21A 22E 23E 24E
PE n/a n/a n/a n/a
EV/EBIT n/a n/a n/a n/a
EV/EBITDA n/a n/a n/a n/a
Price / NTA 26.6 6.5 8.0 8.7
Cash div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gross div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

What's changed?Checking the pulse — assessing near-term catalystsPEB's share price is down -30% year to date. It has lagged global biotech peers recently and we think, given the lack of newsflow, thisis unjustified. Over the near/medium-term we see a number of catalysts that have the potential to drive the share price.Valuation an inherently difficult taskFinding an appropriate valuation benchmark is difficult. The global biotech/genomic universe comprises idiosyncratic businesseswhich are all at differing stages in their respective revenue ramp paths. At 22x 12m forward and 11x 24m forward EV/sales wewouldn't classify PEB as 'cheap', however, when accounting for PEB's lifecycle stage, its superior forecasted revenue growth andcurrent balance sheet position we don't view this as stretched.N E W Z E A L A N D E Q U I T Y R E S E A RC H H E A LT H C A R E C A N C E R D I AG N O S T I C S2 8 M A RC H 2 0 2 2NZX Code PEBShare price NZ$0.93Target price NZ$1.35 (from 1.60)Risk rating HighIssued shares 804.4mMarket cap NZ$748mAvg daily turnover 827.6k (NZ$1,026k)Financials: Mar/ 21A 22E 23E 24ENPAT* (NZ$m) -14.4 -18.4 -16.4 -7.9EPS* (NZc) -2.0 -2.4 -2.0 -1.0EPS growth* (%) 38.5 -19.2 15.7 51.5DPS (NZc) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Imputation (%) 0 0 0 0*Based on normalised profitsValuation (x) 21A 22E 23E 24EPE n/a n/a n/a n/aEV/EBIT n/a n/a n/a n/aEV/EBITDA n/a n/a n/a n/aPrice / NTA 26.6 6.5 8.0 8.7Cash div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Gross div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Earnings: FY22/FY23/FY24 revenue downgraded -NZ$1.1m/-NZ$4.6m/-NZ$5.8mTarget price: Decreased to NZ$1.35 (from NZ$1.60)Kaiser Permanente ramp up: Recent results have been plagued by a number of systems issues. Significant growth is alreadycaptured in our forecasts (with revenue ramping materially from FY23E) but we expect signs of success to be perceived positively.New commercial agreements: There remains a long runway for growth with a large untapped potential market. New commercialagreements, particularly for large accounts is a key catalyst.Stronger mention/inclusion in guidelines: A key driver of further product adoption and private payor reimbursement. Having aview on timing/materiality is difficult but catalysts are (1) greater mention in NCCN guidelines, and (2) inclusion in AUA guidelines.Update on strategic direction: New CEO, Peter Meintjes, started in January. We don't expect any wholesale changes in strategybut look for updates on cash utilisation and future aspirations. We assume an update is likely before PEB's FY22 result in late May.FY22 result: Outlook/progress commentary and insight into recent commercial test throughput run-rateFurther clinical evidence: Changing clinical practice is a slow process but the prize remains substantial. While PEB has built arobust body of evidence, expanding this will help support inclusion into clinical guidelines and drive product adoption.

[Harrie]

Well look at that PEB jumps to 97c probably not as a result of the news letter but maybe because the NBR reports that
four bars say the price drop is not justified.

Yeah, that's probably because they have pushed it to their clients in a big way, and don't want to embarrass themselves.

[Brain]

Thanks for posting the above Mr Watchdog. In my opinion FourBars are flying blind just like the rest of us. It all comes down to the selling of the tests and I do not see how any body can predict the speed of the uptake. With this stock we are all punters there are no experts although some pretend to be.

[Minerbarejet]

Just be very pleased that PEB is not still languishing at 7c.

It has a midkine related mate in Oz that is in a similar situation as PEB was.

Midkine is one of the markers in the cxBladder Test.

[Maxtrade]

Well look at that PEB jumps to 97c probably not as a result of the news letter but maybe because the NBR reports that
four bars say the price drop is not justified.

What qualifies as justified or not. They say it's 'unjustified' because they have recently advised fund managers to pump money in at last Cap Raise. They have to say that otherwise they look like they messed up.

There is still a lot of 'hope' built in to current SP at these levels, unknown when 'might' become profitable. Hope for US adoption. Many investors won't see it as a positive investment until they can see some lab test throughput, increases in customer base, medical adoption, growth in revenue, and see profitability at the end of the tunnel. At this stage their is still lot of speculation built into the current SP. The Update was as expected, sugar coating but nothing positively substantial to show any real forward momentum in sales/ adoption. If SP doesn't crest and stabilise above $1.0 on this minor recent rally, then we might see a dip back off SP 1.0 back down to 0.8 range again.

Unfortunately the numbers in May are not likely to look positive. This may be the time the SP takes a dip down off current levels and tests 0.80 again. Until then might see hopefuls hold SP above 0.90. Sad to see what's happening to hopeful holders in AIR this morning. That's what false hope can do, need to trust in the figures and real data when investing (rather than speculating). PEB currently needs some real traction to push it back up into an uptrend over $1. Otherwise inevitable 0.80 will be retested.

[Maxtrade]

What qualifies as justified or not. They say it's 'unjustified' because they have recently advised fund managers to pump money in at last Cap Raise. They have to say that otherwise they look like they messed up.

There is still a lot of 'hope' built in to current SP at these levels, unknown when 'might' become profitable. Hope for US adoption. Many investors won't see it as a positive investment until they can see some lab test throughput, increases in customer base, medical adoption, growth in revenue, and see profitability at the end of the tunnel. At this stage their is still lot of speculation built into the current SP. The Update was as expected, sugar coating but nothing positively substantial to show any real forward momentum in sales/ adoption. If SP doesn't crest and stabilise above $1.0 on this minor recent rally, then we might see a dip back off SP 1.0 back down to 0.8 range again.

Unfortunately the numbers in May are not likely to look positive. This may be the time the SP takes a dip down off current levels and tests 0.80 again. Until then might see hopefuls hold SP above 0.90. Sad to see what's happening to hopeful holders in AIR this morning. That's what false hope can do, need to trust in the figures and real data when investing (rather than speculating). PEB currently needs some real traction to push it back up into an uptrend over $1. Otherwise inevitable 0.80 will be retested.

Got some pretty upbeat buyers on market this morning. Not large volumes so small time retail investors who are eager to jump in and consequently with the low volumes on market pushing SP up considerably. Hope it holds! But more likely once the lower volume buyers push through then day traders will sell for a quick profit and SP will knock back down again. Fingers crossed SP stays up above 1.0.. If not will be interesting where the next dip lays resistance level, if up trending, continuing downtrend, or meandering waiting hoping for some better numbers.

Peak at 1.05. Followed by sell volume stacking up @ 1.04. The ups n downs of traders at play. Wondering if current bids will hold above 1.0 or if they will be withdrawn as the sell volume starts pushing back down as it looks to be now. Without news makes more sense to be sitting back in the low 0.90 range where it was. Interesting to watch. Is that enough buying support to hold, probably unlikely. Will see where close is today.

[Maxtrade]

Got some pretty upbeat buyers on market this morning. Not large volumes so small time retail investors who are eager to jump in and consequently with the low volumes on market pushing SP up considerably. Hope it holds! But more likely once the lower volume buyers push through then day traders will sell for a quick profit and SP will knock back down again. Fingers crossed SP stays up above 1.0.. If not will be interesting where the next dip lays resistance level, if up trending, continuing downtrend, or meandering waiting hoping for some better numbers.

Peak at 1.05. Followed by sell volume stacking up @ 1.04. The ups n downs of traders at play. Wondering if current bids will hold above 1.0 or if they will be withdrawn as the sell volume starts pushing back down as it looks to be now. Without news makes more sense to be sitting back in the low 0.90 range where it was. Interesting to watch. Is that enough buying support to hold, probably unlikely. Will see where close is today.


Cant beat algorhythms in trading these days.Momentum stalled. Sell volume appears out of nowhere, All of a sudden 24 sellers and ~300,000 sharers appear on the sell side. SELL down into the 0.9's again?

[Maxtrade]

Cant beat algorhythms in trading these days.Momentum stalled. Sell volume appears out of nowhere, All of a sudden 24 sellers and ~300,000 sharers appear on the sell side. SELL down into the 0.9's again?

Little pump in dump yesterday selling back down today, 2 x 100,000 sells today after a quick profit take yesterdays pulse.

[850man]

Got some pretty upbeat buyers on market this morning. Not large volumes so small time retail investors who are eager to jump in and consequently with the low volumes on market pushing SP up considerably. Hope it holds! But more likely once the lower volume buyers push through then day traders will sell for a quick profit and SP will knock back down again. Fingers crossed SP stays up above 1.0.. If not will be interesting where the next dip lays resistance level, if up trending, continuing downtrend, or meandering waiting hoping for some better numbers.

Peak at 1.05. Followed by sell volume stacking up @ 1.04. The ups n downs of traders at play. Wondering if current bids will hold above 1.0 or if they will be withdrawn as the sell volume starts pushing back down as it looks to be now. Without news makes more sense to be sitting back in the low 0.90 range where it was. Interesting to watch. Is that enough buying support to hold, probably unlikely. Will see where close is today.

and closing sub $1 today :-(

Needs some actual delivered financial results to breathe any life into PEB's SP

[pierre]

and closing sub $1 today :-(

Needs some actual delivered financial results to breathe any life into PEB's SP

Yep - and we have to wait till May results before we get those numbers - even then PEB (and/or its shareholders) might still need a bit of oxygen to keep breathing.

Unless, that is, the good Dr. Meintjes can pull a rabbit out of the hat - such as some real action with KP, or traction with another major user.

Until then, SP swings will continue and patience is still required.

[Maxtrade]

Yep - and we have to wait till May results before we get those numbers - even then PEB (and/or its shareholders) might still need a bit of oxygen to keep breathing.

Unless, that is, the good Dr. Meintjes can pull a rabbit out of the hat - such as some real action with KP, or traction with another major user.

Until then, SP swings will continue and patience is still required.


Right. Seeing SP rally didn't surmount above 1.05 and struggling to hold $1, will likely see a decline following recent downtrends. Momentary rally, peaked just above $1 so may likely fall the rise. Head back to 0.8- 0.9. Hopefully form lower end trough there and use that as a support level to form the next rally from. Presuming we get some positive numbers through. Until then will be some traders plays making 5-15% swing profits, mid 0.8's to ~$1.03.

[winner69]

Bell Potter getting desperate and bringing out the PEB a takeover target trick ..... maybe a $2 blllion target

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/does-pacific-edge-have-a-target-on-its-back

[Mel]

Bell Potter getting desperate and bringing out the PEB a takeover target trick ..... maybe a $2 blllion target

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/does-pacific-edge-have-a-target-on-its-back
A rather biased perspective from Bell Potter I would imagine!

[Maxtrade]

Bell Potter getting desperate and bringing out the PEB a takeover target trick ..... maybe a $2 blllion target

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/does-pacific-edge-have-a-target-on-its-back

Many of those analysts are just playing with investors funds, akin to betting. Trying to drive swing trades through unsupported speculative statements such as that out of thin air. Then watch them dump with any rally on the SP, then they buy back in at where support will form at last trough high 0.8's. The thing is many more folk are knowledgeable on how the fund managers play the markets now and can watch for and see through such.

[Muse]

A rather biased perspective from Bell Potter I would imagine!

Also quite a bit lower than the A$1.31 placement the investment banking side of Bell Porter advised on

interesting that

[Muse]

Bell Potter getting desperate and bringing out the PEB a takeover target trick ..... maybe a $2 blllion target

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/listed-companies/does-pacific-edge-have-a-target-on-its-back

So a A$1.10 target price - thats the spot valuation rolled forward at the cost of equity less dividends (nil divs). so if we assume a 10% cost of equity used in their valuation (no idea what they use but nice round number) that is a spot valuation of $1.00. Pretty big fall from the A$1.31 issue they advised on only back October last year

[Brain]

Many of those analysts are just playing with investors funds, akin to betting. Trying to drive swing trades through unsupported speculative statements such as that out of thin air. Then watch them dump with any rally on the SP, then they buy back in at where support will form at last trough high 0.8's. The thing is many more folk are knowledgeable on how the fund managers play the markets now and can watch for and see through such.

Are you accusing them of market manipulation? That’s illegal isn’t it . I am shocked to the core. They would be too scared to do this because NZ RegCo and the FMA, our world class market regulators, would come down on them like a tonne of bricks. They know how effective the FMA and NZ Reg co are. They know that they are at the top of their game and don’t come to work just to eat their lunch.

[barney]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-potential-takeover-target-report

[Maxtrade]

haha.Nice :)

All within parameters right. Yet if we do anything relatively minor we get called up and advised of market manipulation. I guess they have bigger and better algorithms.

[Maxtrade]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-potential-takeover-target-report

Thanks for posting Barney. Speculation to its core, called out by Dr Meintjes.

Sure enough (as per our posts end last week and earlier this week) SP didn't hold at last minor rally when topped 1.05, out of thin air sell volume appeared and piled up forcing SP back below $1.0. That was a key mental figure to show it had enough support to hold. But rather it looks like traders 10-15% swing trades. Suggesting 0.89 next resistance buy. If that doesn't hold then downtrend continues. Hoping for all share holders it does hold and in turn a low end trough forms and stabilises on the second dip.

[barney]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/cancer-diagnostics-company-opens-upgraded-lab

[Greekwatchdog]

Nice little paragraph ..

It also provided space for the expected increase in test volumes from the Asia Pacific region and for the evolution of Pacific Edge’s cancer diagnostic technologies.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/cancer-diagnostics-company-opens-upgraded-lab

Clark was looking waaaayyy too excited - probably doesn't get out much these days.

[Maxtrade]

SP sliding back to low 0.9's from recent 1.05. A shame the SP couldn't maintain its uptrend on that rally. Here's hoping double bounce above mid 0.8's, if so will establish a pretty good base for low end trough to then rally back up off.

Been a steady sell down for past week or so, fallen 10% so far. Here's hoping turnaround will be approaching 20% which will put us right on mid 0.8's, to setup for double bounce low end resistance.

All the technicals are still indicating a strong sell, yet there are signs of some support around 0.90, will it be enough though is the question? Thoughts traders?

[850man]

Announced today:

Pacific Edge Opens Upgraded Dunedin Laboratory

Pacific Edge is pleased to announce the opening of its upgraded clinical laboratory at the University of Otago’s Centre for Innovation in Dunedin.

The new lab, opened by Dunedin MP David Clark on Friday, is designed to future proof Pacific Edge’s diagnostic testing and research and development capabilities. It also provides space for the expected increase in test volumes from the Asia Pacific region and for the evolution of Pacific Edge’s cancer diagnostic technologies.

Pacific Edge CEO, Dr Peter Meintjes, said: “The upgrade – the first since the laboratory was opened in 2011 – highlights our confidence in Cxbladder becoming embedded as the standard of care for the diagnosis and management of urothelial cancer in the Asia Pacific and further afield.”

“It gives us the space to expand testing capacity as the volume of tests from the Asia Pacific rises, supports the implementation of anticipated commercial tests as they emerge from research and development, and provides our team with a better working environment.”

“The upgrade also provides redundancy for our CLIA certified Laboratory in Hershey, Pennsylvania. It’s great to be able to give our customers and partners around the world that level of assurance and I know our team are also looking forward to getting into new digs.”

The upgraded lab has been designed to enhance Cxbladder testing protocols and workflow automation, supporting the continued development of the test, while driving efficiency and adherence to strict quality controls. Additionally, it’s supported by Pacific Edge’s dedicated Laboratory Information Management System, which underpins the integrity of our testing procedure and protects patient samples and identities.

The lab retains its CLIA certification which enables the laboratory to process samples originating from patients within the United States or its territories. It will also retain its ISO-15189 accredited medical laboratory certification.

[t.rexjr]

“The upgrade also provides redundancy for our CLIA certified Laboratory in Hershey, Pennsylvania...

Sooo, they're shutting a Lab?

[kiora]

Which country is the demand going to come from again ???

[BigBob]

Sooo, they're shutting a Lab?

No they are not shutting a lab... As the statement says they are providing redundancy for the Hershey Lab... As in a back up option, if for some reason Hershey either becomes unavailable, encounters service disruption or runs out of capacity. A prudent thing to do imho...

[psychic]

No they are not shutting a lab... As the statement says they are providing redundancy for the Hershey Lab... As in a back up option, if for some reason Hershey either becomes unavailable, encounters service disruption or runs out of capacity. A prudent thing to do imho...

"Hersey becomes unavailable"? Or not wanted because test numbers or economics don't warrant it?
Just having a bit of fun but :scared:

[Maxtrade]

Guess that was actually all PEB's prior announcement. Pretty weak and poor to shareholders who participated in last Cap Raise. Not much headway news to their key focus market in the US with all that capital at hand. Until the next set of numbers come though this month will likely continue to see a downtrending SP. Some relatively large volume sells down to 0.92 today. Likely see into the mid 0.8's and hope for descent data to come out to then stabilise the SP from there.

[Sideshow Bob]

Guess that was actually all PEB's prior announcement. Pretty weak and poor to shareholders who participated in last Cap Raise. Not much headway news to their key focus market in the US with all that capital at hand. Until the next set of numbers come though this month will likely continue to see a downtrending SP. Some relatively large volume sells down to 0.92 today. Likely see into the mid 0.8's and hope for descent data to come out to then stabilise the SP from there.

David must have got to be bottom of the Good News Announcement Basket before he left.

Yet to be re-filled.....;)

[pierre]

David must have got to be bottom of the Good News Announcement Basket before he left.

Yet to be re-filled.....;)

Patience Grasshopper - the best is yet to come. It may be a way off - but it is on its way.

[Harrie]

Patience Grasshopper - the best is yet to come. It may be a way off - but it is on its way.

Wishful thinking Pierre? Are you privy to info that can substantiate your claims?

[pierre]

Wishful thinking Pierre? Are you privy to info that can substantiate your claims?

No and no are the answers to your questions Harrie. I just remain confident in the company's prospects as I expect do the majority of the holders of its 800m+ shares.
However, very clearly, PEB is not a suitable investment for the impatient or faint-hearted.

[Maxtrade]

No and no are the answers to your question Harrie. I just remain confident in the company's prospects as I expect do the majority of the holders of its 800m+ shares.
However, very clearly, PEB is not a suitable investment for the impatient or faint-hearted.

Tend to agree with your comments Pierre. For that reason and minimal forward moving updates it is likely we still may see the share price erode further. The longer any real supporting data the higher the risk SP may sink further. We should not be surprised or disgruntled if we see a few sells over the next couple of weeks sending the SP sliding back into low to mid 0.8's again. it is entirely feasible in the current environment that this is a possibility with PEB. As you say not for the faint hearted investors.

Based off it's technicals, neg P/E, etc, the current SP is obviously indicative of investors relying on future revenue growth, lab test adoption, and faith in the company. The SP is speculative and difficult to value at this stage. Hence why with lack of news updates with a growth stocks such as PEB we see SP downtrends. Surprising to see SP hasn't settled back into the 0.8's again already but looks like trending that way for now.

[Maxtrade]

Tend to agree with your comments Pierre. For that reason and minimal forward moving updates it is likely we still may see the share price erode further. The longer any real supporting data the higher the risk SP may sink further. We should not be surprised or disgruntled if we see a few sells over the next couple of weeks sending the SP sliding back into low to mid 0.8's again. it is entirely feasible in the current environment that this is a possibility with PEB. As you say not for the faint hearted investors.

Based off it's technicals, neg P/E, etc, the current SP is obviously indicative of investors relying on future revenue growth, lab test adoption, and faith in the company. The SP is speculative and difficult to value at this stage. Hence why with lack of news updates with a growth stocks such as PEB we see SP downtrends. Surprising to see SP hasn't settled back into the 0.8's again already but looks like trending that way for now.


Took it's time but as expected the push down breaking through 0.90 and into the 0.8's. Likely to see a slow fall into the low 0.8;s now, hopefully then followed by stabilisation and setting a lower end trough on what would be it's second retracement to the low/mid 0.8's recently. Not a lot of bids currently and volumes have been low for quite some time, fingers crossed SP holds above 0.8. If breaks through that level then who knows where's next on the down trend. The month of May might be a talent time for PEB currently to see if it can stabilise downtrend SP and regain an upwards trajectory. Maybe selling now, ride May out, buying back in on the 0.8 or sub 0.8 dip and hoping some good news comes out in the next couple of months might be a good approach to maximise returns.

The team here has been pretty quiet on PEB for a while now on this leaky SP decline. Maybe a few uncertainties and folk questioning?, not that long ago touched SP 1.5+, followed by CR 1.35, now struggling to hold in the 0.8's.

[850man]

That's a pretty poor trend from the cap raise at $1.32 to now, 33% decrease in SP, those investors no doubt have some very big concerns about how their money is being used

[Maxtrade]

That's a pretty poor trend from the cap raise at $1.32 to now, 33% decrease in SP, those investors no doubt have some very big concerns about how their money is being used

The new CEO better pull a white rabbit out of his hat soon with some upbeat supporting data. Starting to look like DD did what he done best and created hype before his exit, sending SP to it's previous highs. Since then radio silence, no upbeat updates, and a rapidly retracting SP are what we have seen. Yes 33% is substantial. I thought by now management may have stepped in and tried to minimise the declining SP. Not a good sign that they haven't as might mean because they haven't really got anything substantial to provide for support. Lets just hope SP has enough faithful to board the train again when SP touches down to 0.80-0.81, if not and breaks through the 0.80 level then not looking good. Yes those that participated in the Cap Raise would be considering cutting their losses at this point. 33% stop loss many wouldn't want to go past that. Sell out now to avoid further losses and buy back in once a real lower end trough has established and an uptrend next presents itself? Strong downtrend currently in place.

0.78 is going to bey a key level to watch for on the charts. Make or break for support at that point.

[Brain]

The share price is of no consequence to a company unless they want to raise capital. Hopefully the new CEO is concentrating on getting on with business and that medium to long term is his focus.

[850man]

The share price is of no consequence to a company unless they want to raise capital. Hopefully the new CEO is concentrating on getting on with business and that medium to long term is his focus.

It is when it comes to securing new contracts. How do they explain the a $1B company 6 months ago is now half that value? An awkward conversation that's not going to help them one bit

[winner69]

It is when it comes to securing new contracts. How do they explain the a $1B company 6 months ago is now half that value? An awkward conversation that's not going to help them one bit

Half a billion USD market cap ...... truly amazing

(NZD$700m)

[hereweare]

After having this for the last few years, I must say that sadly I sold all my holdings to invest in other stocks, good luck to all!

[850man]

DD is buying even though he's departing. Suggests positive news on the horizon https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391172

[winner69]

DD is buying even though he's departing. Suggests positive news on the horizon https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391172

I don't think he bought any - they were 'issued' to him (at a buck each)

For being a good boy ... and for his story telling efforts

Non-cash consideration, being in recognition of the Subscriber's performance as an employee of the Company in lieu of a bonus and in addition to the Subscriber's previous salary (being a short term incentive payment from the previous year
and a retirement payment)

[850man]

I don't think he bought any - they were 'issued' to him (at a buck each)

For being a good boy ... and for his story telling efforts

Non-cash consideration, being in recognition of the Subscriber's performance as an employee of the Company in lieu of a bonus and in addition to the Subscriber's previous salary (being a short term incentive payment from the previous year
and a retirement payment)

Ah yes, I read only the one update not both :confused:

[winner69]

Ah yes, I read only the one update not both :confused:

Take some solace from him not selling any of his millions of shares .... confidence in future .....or just waiting to cash in the still millions of options he has

[Maxtrade]

Take some solace from him not selling any of his millions of shares .... confidence in future .....or just waiting to cash in the still millions of options he has

Very good point, might get pretty ugly for holders once he does start selling off though.

[Mel]

This will be telling:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391345

[Minerbarejet]

This will be telling:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391345

The 2019 U.S. urologist population consists of 13,044 practicing urologists. From Google

From the announcement sheet

Cxbladder is reimbursed by CMS and has been trusted by over 2,000 US urologists in the diagnosis and management of more than 80,000 patients, including the option for in-home sample collection.

Thats 15% roughly.
80,000 patients at NZ1000.00. each
Draw your own conclusions.

[winner69]

The 2019 U.S. urologist population consists of 13,044 practicing urologists. From Google

From the announcement sheet

Cxbladder is reimbursed by CMS and has been trusted by over 2,000 US urologists in the diagnosis and management of more than 80,000 patients, including the option for in-home sample collection.

Thats 15% roughly.
80,000 patients at NZ1000.00. each
Draw your own conclusions.

That’s potentially $80,000,000 ..jeez that’s a lot

[Mel]

The 2019 U.S. urologist population consists of 13,044 practicing urologists. From Google

From the announcement sheet

Cxbladder is reimbursed by CMS and has been trusted by over 2,000 US urologists in the diagnosis and management of more than 80,000 patients, including the option for in-home sample collection.

Thats 15% roughly.
80,000 patients at NZ1000.00. each
Draw your own conclusions.
The way I read that is that the 2,000 urologists have 80k patients on their books - rather than 80,000 tests having been conducted. Happy to be wrong on this tho :)

[Minerbarejet]

The way I read that is that the 2,000 urologists have 80k patients on their books - rather than 80,000 tests having been conducted. Happy to be wrong on this tho :)

Dunno - its a hard one to figure out but it does look very encouraging to say the least.

One has to remember that the ones being monitored may be doing 3 or 4 tests per annum and there are roughly 80,000 new cases per annum amongst 13000 urologists. 2000 of them would get 12000 additional patients annually roughly, minus attrition for those being cured hopefully.

https://www4.bing.com/search?q=how+many+cases+of+bladder+cancer+per+year +USA&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=how+many+cases+of+bladde

[Mel]

Dunno - its a hard one to figure out but it does look very encouraging to say the least.

One has to remember that the ones being monitored may be doing 3 or 4 tests per annum and there are roughly 80,000 new cases per annum amongst 13000 urologists. 2000 of them would get 12000 additional patients annually roughly, minus attrition for those being cured hopefully.

https://www4.bing.com/search?q=how+many+cases+of+bladder+cancer+per+year +USA&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=how+many+cases+of+bladde

i like your logic :)

[850man]

I like everyone's optimism. Let's hope that's played out on 26th

[Minerbarejet]

I like everyone's optimism. Let's hope that's played out on 26th

I have never seen anything like that defining statement about cxBladder giving details of urologist and patient numbers at the end of the announcement before.

[Minerbarejet]

From the HY report

Cxbladder Sales- US 4,982
HY 2021 2,906

Rounding up Sales to 5000 and dividing by 2000 urologists is 2.5 tests average each in the first 6 months of this Financial Year.

This doesn't appear to be excessive usage given that the 2000 urologists with 80000 customers have an average of 40 patients each.

Also considering that the 40 patients are "on the books" the question arises as to why are they still on the books.

Probably due to being monitored after diagnosis and treatment for any signs of recurrence.

This requires several tests per year to monitor for recurrence usually at 2 or 3 times a year or 2.5 as an average.

So given these figures it would seem that using cxBladder at that rate is equivalent to 2000 urologists using Monitor on 1 or 2 customers each.

The only fly in the ointment with this though is that they may not have had 2000 urologists signed on at the end of HY

in which case the rate of use would be higher.

There is also the Mid May conference with AUA and about 30 other conferences elsewhere to consider going forward.

[Maxtrade]

From the HY report

Cxbladder Sales- US 4,982
HY 2021 2,906

Rounding up Sales to 5000 and dividing by 2000 urologists is 2.5 tests average each in the first 6 months of this Financial Year.

This doesn't appear to be excessive usage given that the 2000 urologists with 80000 customers have an average of 40 patients each.

Also considering that the 40 patients are "on the books" the question arises as to why are they still on the books.

Probably due to being monitored after diagnosis and treatment for any signs of recurrence.

This requires several tests per year to monitor for recurrence usually at 2 or 3 times a year or 2.5 as an average.

So given these figures it would seem that using cxBladder at that rate is equivalent to 2000 urologists using Monitor on 1 or 2 customers each.

The only fly in the ointment with this though is that they may not have had 2000 urologists signed on at the end of HY

in which case the rate of use would be higher.

There is also the Mid May conference with AUA and about 30 other conferences elsewhere to consider going forward.


Lets hope 0.83 holds otherwise charts indicating a slippery downwards retracement from there! Maybe the optimists here can keep buying and help hold the line. Probably cant withstand too much more downwards pressure until something breaks here though.

[850man]

Hoping for some good numbers on 26th

[Greekwatchdog]

Hoping for some good numbers on 26th

I have nil expectations. Hoping they sort of do the same if not 10% more than 1st half. Hopefully system integration at KP is sorted and we can start seeing numbers from there.

Be interesting to hear some news on Singapore and Aust..

[Minerbarejet]

It would appear that PEB sales are increasing overall based on the last three half years at a rate of about 1m per half in a covid affected environment.
If this continued at the current rate sales for this half should be at least 6.3 giving a total for the year of around 12m.

3326 31 Sep 2020
4375 31 Mar 2021
7701 FY

5378 31 Sep 2021
6380 31 Mar 2022 ( projected)
11758 FY

If they do better than that then the rate is climbing and will reflect the larger sales force at work.

[Mel]

Announcement of a new clinical study
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391797

[Mel]

Announcement of a new clinical study
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391797
Reiteration that "“Cxbladder already has substantial adoption for detection and surveillance of urothelial cancer with more than 2,000 urologists using the test in the workup of more than 80,000 patients.” The definition of 'workup' and any resultant assumptions makes revenue forecasting a little challenging......I guess we'll have to wait for their results announcement. This is positive news nonetheless.

[Minerbarejet]

Reiteration that "“Cxbladder already has substantial adoption for detection and surveillance of urothelial cancer with more than 2,000 urologists using the test in the workup of more than 80,000 patients.” The definition of 'workup' and any resultant assumptions makes revenue forecasting a little challenging......I guess we'll have to wait for their results announcement. This is positive news nonetheless.
Further reflection on the 2000/80,000 statement gives me the impression it is probably an accumulative total in both areas over several years.

[Maxtrade]

Lets hope 0.83 holds otherwise charts indicating a slippery downwards retracement from there! Maybe the optimists here can keep buying and help hold the line. Probably cant withstand too much more downwards pressure until something breaks here though.

Disappointing support broke through 0.83, highly likely back down into the 0.7's next. Those that bought in last Cap Raise probably starting to cringe if they haven't already sold out - might well have by now. See where it bottoms, stabilises and maybe buy back in then, if there is any aligning supportive updates with real impact figures. Will be hard to rally in a globally weak general market outlook. Higher growth stocks, tech, speculative are proving to get hit the hardest.
How low do investors here tend to think SP will need to go before a support level can form. Hopefully it's not going to retrace to 0.62 support level on the charts!!? Ouch!

[850man]

Disappointing support broke through 0.83, highly likely back down into the 0.7's next. Those that bought in last Cap Raise probably starting to cringe if they haven't already sold out - might well have by now. See where it bottoms, stabilises and maybe buy back in then, if there is any aligning supportive updates with real impact figures. Will be hard to rally in a globally weak general market outlook. Higher growth stocks, tech, speculative are proving to get hit the hardest.
How low do investors here tend to think SP will need to go before a support level can form. Hopefully it's not going to retrace to 0.62 support level on the charts!!? Ouch!

The lack of any concrete results has not helped with confidence in the company. I'm damn sure all those who participated in the cap raise at $1.32 have not been left with a good taste in their mouths. At least 6 months ago, they hired a bunch of sales people in the USA. If I was running that shop, I'd be expecting some real results and revenue in hand from them by now. It's not just buying coffees and lunches.

[Minerbarejet]

Announcement of a new clinical study
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391797
Interesting to note the timing of this announcement just prior to the AUA conference being held on the 13th to 16th of May.
Its sort of like one across the bows of AUA. Sit up and take notice.

800,000 patients is the usual number of patients bandied about for recurrence monitoring in the USA at any given point.
It could possibly become standard of care after a couple of clear cystoscopies requiring a cxbladder regimen of tests every few months for 5 years or until declared in remission.

[Sideshow Bob]

Anything speculative is getting its bum smacked in the current environment.

PEB has a market cap today at $656m, and revenue in the past 6 months of about 1% of that. Still plenty of cash in the bank, but ultimately need to see sales/tests/revenue - hasn't happened has it? Their FY due in just over 2 weeks will be telling, and would say there would need to be real development.

Chief Cheerleader has left the building, so whether it was a hospital pass, or on the cusp of greatness, it remains to be seen. After 20+ years, probably not the latter......

[winner69]

.....................

Chief Cheerleader has left the building, so whether it was a hospital pass, or on the cusp of greatness, it remains to be seen. After 20+ years, probably not the latter......

.... and the troupe of cheerleaders went with him .... no glamour left

I see share price down in 30's again ,,,, and they'll still be hanging in there .... unless they decide to toss in the towel and say it's not worth it

[Sideshow Bob]

.... and the troupe of cheerleaders went with him .... no glamour left

I see share price down in 30's again ,,,, and they'll still be hanging in there .... unless they decide to toss in the towel and say it's not worth it

They do have about $105m in cash as at last report, so that is about 15cps.

Plenty to go before they toss the towel....

[Minerbarejet]

Why would you build a new lab in anticipation of an influx of Asian and Oz customers if you had no idea of when that might happen?

[psychic]

I just do not understand why they did not / could not instigate this sort of clinical study years ago with the Vets, or whoever.. (KP not interested?)

Maybe we and the AUA would have the evidence now instead of forever reading "further evidence required" in the conclusions of independent reviews.

Or will this be a case of too small (n 426 patients) and too late/ slow to give Monitor the legs it needs now before Assure MDX et al gain traction?

Four (free?) tests each at time of monitoring cystoscopy over 12 -24 month period, then collate, review and review some more a few years after final test....), publish, could be looking at 4- 5 years before this will any help?

Good they have the cash reserves to keep plodding on

[psychic]

Hopefully it's not going to retrace to 0.62 support level on the charts!!? Ouch!

It was overpriced at .30 then gapped on four puffy announcements which sent it to the moon - just in time for the big CR and to allow LT backers to recover loses and reduce. Well played. All imho.

[thegreatestben]

Making the call to back out on this, can't see the upcoming results making any significant increase to the SP.
Walking away with my original buy in, would have had a bit more in it if we hadn't taken part in the CR.

[Minerbarejet]

I just do not understand why they did not / could not instigate this sort of clinical study years ago with the Vets, or whoever.. (KP not interested?)

Maybe we and the AUA would have the evidence now instead of forever reading "further evidence required" in the conclusions of independent reviews.

Or will this be a case of too small (n 426 patients) and too late/ slow to give Monitor the legs it needs now before Assure MDX et al gain traction?

Four (free?) tests each at time of monitoring cystoscopy over 12 -24 month period, then collate, review and review some more a few years after final test....), publish, could be looking at 4- 5 years before this will any help?

Good they have the cash reserves to keep plodding on
Its not rocket science to figure out that cash in large lumps, which has been lacking up until the large cash raise, may be required for clinical studies.

Other outfits proposing their particular brand of treatment will have the same costs involved in providing similar data and may take just as long to get it.

There is a very high bar to get to the same level as cxBladder and very little wriggle room for superiority.

Even so with 800,000 patients being monitored for recurrence several times a year in the US there would be plenty of room for all contenders at the top providing they were able to match cxBladder's performance and prove it.

Getting standard of care status would certainly restrict other contenders for some time to come.

PEB are not ever going to capture the entire market and 10% would probably do nicely for PEBs continued existence, further clinical trials and other product development.

Makes you wonder what the other 90% will be doing in the meantime, doesnt it?

[Maxtrade]

It was overpriced at .30 then gapped on four puffy announcements which sent it to the moon - just in time for the big CR and to allow LT backers to recover loses and reduce. Well played. All imho.

Sadly I think you have hit the nail on the head. It's all so manipulated

[Maxtrade]

Making the call to back out on this, can't see the upcoming results making any significant increase to the SP.
Walking away with my original buy in, would have had a bit more in it if we hadn't taken part in the CR.

Unfortunately we have had to do the same, greatly reduced our holdings to reduce downside exposure. The risk reward at this time is too great. Makes more sense to sell out, then buy back in once/if there is any real traction and progress with real data/figures. Downside SP trend stronger than any upside potential currently. Don't want to be caught in a large sell off after following update if it is not a substantial uplift (which is unlikely). May well see some likeminded trades and a continued downwards push on SP prior to update.

[psychic]

Its not rocket science to figure out that cash in large lumps, which has been lacking up until the large cash raise, may be required for clinical studies.



It's not rocket science to work out that the marginal cost of processing (in this case) 1700 tests in order to validate the thing and get it in the guidelines is sweet FA surely?

[psychic]

PEB are not ever going to capture the entire market and 10% would probably do nicely for PEBs continued existence, further clinical trials and other product development.

Makes you wonder what the other 90% will be doing in the meantime, doesnt it?

No mystery at all! The gold standard will continue until a test is produced that betters it. Cxbladder clearly does not, but might in the meantime be used as an adjunct to improve management. The question is, in which circumstances and how often?

[psychic]

Newsletter quietly offers a few corrections to past embellishments I think, before a disappointing result is published next month.

The big news items taking the SP from about .10 to $1.30 over the past 10 months have been as follows:

Inclusion in NCCN guidelines
PE made much of Cxbladder being included in the clinical pathway but this was an exaggeration in the extreme.
It wasn’t.
There is no mention of Cxbladder in there at all, surveillance is still Cystoscopy and cytology. The guidelines simply, with the weakest of recommendations (2B), now say that the additional use of Biomarkers (in general) may be considered in surveillance but that it was unclear whether the additional information was useful.

Guidelines current March 2021
https://www.nccn.org/professionals/physician_gls/pdf/bladder.pdf
The newsletter now confirms that they have more work to do before inclusion.

Deal with Kaiser June 2020

PE finally announced completion of Triage trial with KP in Nov 2016.
We still know nothing of the Commercial deal or number of tests being paid for.
But todays newsletter confirms that they are “using” Monitor only, Triage has not been adopted by KP

July 2020 LCD by CMS

Medicare now cover Cxbladder Monitor and Detect where medically necessary
Yet the Local Coverage Decision says Cxbladder is NOT considered medically necessary

https://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/details/lcd-details.aspx?LCDId=38388&ver=13

The American Urological Assn directive last reviewed Jan 2021
https://www.auanet.org/guidelines/bladder-cancer-non-muscle-invasive-guideline
It says:
9. In surveillance of NMIBC, a clinician should not use urinary biomarkers in place of cystoscopic evaluation. (Strong Recommendation; Evidence Strength: Grade B)

So the “medically necessary” tests PEB is saying are now being reimbursed by CMS I suggest are only a small portion of those being completed. As for reimbursement of all those past tests, again, I think very few will have been “medically necessary” so good luck with that.

April 2021 United Healthcare covers Cxbladder

Well, they don’t, really. More exaggeration.

United has a Medicare Policy which is effectively back to back /underwritten by CMS as primary payer. Todays newsletter confirms that United doesn’t cover Cxbladder under its own Healthcare Plans. Neither do Aetna, Blue Cross or any others as far as I can see.
United has simply added the CPT codes so as to match Medicare for consistency

These were the four announcements I referred to in my post earlier today (I posted this a year ago). Will be interesting to see how these announcements have driven revenue when results are pblished soon...

[Minerbarejet]

It's not rocket science to work out that the marginal cost of processing (in this case) 1700 tests in order to validate the thing and get it in the guidelines is sweet FA surely?
Bit more to it than just 1700 tests.
Compilation of data requires a number of people working on it firstly to get the numbers signed up and to keep track of them all over several years.
Some patients will pass on, some will be declared in remission, and there is of course the waiting gap between one test and any further test on an individual patient. This is invariably three months but is sometimes longer.
Throw a bit of disruptive Covid amongst everything and yes there could be quite some time involved.

[Maxtrade]

Dangerously close to a breakdown if 0.77 doesn't hold. SP might take a sharp rapid decline if we see this support point fail. Who's got nerves of steel to be holding or even buying at current level!? Must have steady hands

[Ggcc]

Dangerously close to a breakdown if 0.77 doesn't hold. SP might take a sharp rapid decline if we see this support point fail. Who's got nerves of steel to be holding or even buying at current level!? Must have steady hands
I feel sorry for those that bought in the capital raise. Lots of people feeing burnt.

[Maxtrade]

I feel sorry for those that bought in the capital raise. Lots of people feeing burnt.

Yes, the hype up before CR, right before DD exit, inflate SP, execute CR at max SP, followed by leaving shareholders behind once capital in the bank and SP erodes away. It's a fine line what is deemed market manipulation. Yet retail traders get contacted by NZX for market manipulation for a few subjectively sensitive trading placements bids/sells. Yep massive manipulation prior to a CR and subsequent fall back is fine. I agree not right for those that bought in on CR. Is on its way to 50% retracement from CR. If that's not classic example of hype and pump announcements prior to a CR then what is defined as market manipulation.

Can but hope 0.77 holds today, but not looking like it is shaping up well, break through below 0.77 will be followed by substantial and rapid retracement. Take caution.

[winner69]

Yes, the hype up before CR, right before DD exit, inflate SP, execute CR at max SP, followed by leaving shareholders behind once capital in the bank and SP erodes away. It's a fine line what is deemed market manipulation. Yet retail traders get contacted by NZX for market manipulation for a few subjectively sensitive trading placements bids/sells. Yep massive manipulation prior to a CR and subsequent fall back is fine. I agree not right for those that bought in on CR. Is on its way to 50% retracement from CR. If that's not classic example of hype and pump announcements prior to a CR then what is defined as market manipulation.

Can but hope 0.77 holds today, but not looking like it is shaping up well, break through below 0.77 will be followed by substantial and rapid retracement. Take caution.

Nothing new here ….been like that for nearly 20 years now.

Makes you wonder if this CxBladder thing actually exists?

[Minerbarejet]

Yes, the hype up before CR, right before DD exit, inflate SP, execute CR at max SP, followed by leaving shareholders behind once capital in the bank and SP erodes away. It's a fine line what is deemed market manipulation. Yet retail traders get contacted by NZX for market manipulation for a few subjectively sensitive trading placements bids/sells. Yep massive manipulation prior to a CR and subsequent fall back is fine. I agree not right for those that bought in on CR. Is on its way to 50% retracement from CR. If that's not classic example of hype and pump announcements prior to a CR then what is defined as market manipulation.

Can but hope 0.77 holds today, but not looking like it is shaping up well, break through below 0.77 will be followed by substantial and rapid retracement. Take caution.

Thank you for your negative input based on a squiggly line.
Trust they dont ping you for market manipulation.
Same stuff - different direction.

[Maxtrade]

Thank you for your negative input based on a squiggly line.
Trust they dont ping you for market manipulation.
Same stuff - different direction.

Not at all. Would like to see 0.78 hold, which it looks like it has and a decent rally coming back off today. Even with poor general market uncertainty. Shows resilience forming, lower end trough may be forming at this level. Nice to see a push higher today. Possibly close at 0.85. Which many would welcome a decent relief rally today. More buy demand than sell today. Positive

[pierre]

Not at all. Would like to see 0.78 hold, which it looks like it has and a decent rally coming back off today. Even with poor general market uncertainty. Shows resilience forming, lower end trough may be forming at this level. Nice to see a push higher today. Possibly close at 0.85. Which many would welcome a decent relief rally today. More buy demand than sell today. Positive

Any minor SP increase will still be cold comfort to those who participated in the latest CR. The SP will continue to wobble until there is news of some substance from the company.

I think the best we can hope for in the short-term is some positive data in the FY announcement next week such as an increase in test numbers and payments and maybe an update on activity via Kaiser Permanente.

Meantime, it's fingers crossed and hope that Dr. Meintjes is 100% focused on pulling a rabbit out of the hat soon.

[BigBob]

Newsletter this morning...:

Snippet...: "...the more than 500 monthly users of Cxbladder products..."...

If a "user" is a patient, it seems very low, but if a "user" is a clinician numbers could be looking promising...!!


Dear Shareholder,

Pacific Edge is pleased to report strong interest in its advanced genomic biomarker Cxbladder tests from the recently-concluded American Urological Association (AUA) Annual Meeting in New Orleans.

The AUA meeting is the biggest event on the US and global urological conference calendar, attracting thousands of urologists, oncologists, researchers, educators, and healthcare professionals and companies from around the world.

Pacific Edge has been a long time and significant sponsor of the AUA and dramatically increased its presence in the main exhibition hall, while also sponsoring key sessions for Veterans Affairs and the newly created “Bladder Cancer Forum”.

The forum, hosted by the research organisation the International Bladder Cancer Group (IBCG) heard expert international panellists across bladder cancer disciplines delivering lectures on contemporary bladder cancer management, as well as treatment strategies in challenging disease states. The forum was moderated by Dr. Ashish Kamat (MD Anderson Cancer Center) and Dr. Sima Porten (UCSF).

Pacific Edge’s CEO, Dr. Peter Meintjes says: “We have been delighted with the interest we have received in Cxbladder at the AUA. Many oncologists expressed a strong desire for advanced genomic biomarkers to break through into the guidelines where simpler biomarkers have under-delivered.

“The performance characteristics established in Pacific Edge’s catalogue of peer-reviewed publications and, the more than 500 monthly users of Cxbladder products and the exciting clinical utility studies roadmap have spurred significant optimism that Cxbladder can address a number of unmet needs in the urological care pathway.

“Ongoing clinical studies continue to demonstrate Cxbladder’s role in facilitating the early detection of urothelial cancer and helping clinicians rule out urothelial cancer for low-risk patients presenting with haematuria, thereby offering opportunities to reduce unnecessary and invasive cystoscopies.

“In the specialist setting, Cxbladder has demonstrated its ability to help clinicians adjudicate diagnostic dilemmas (most commonly equivocal cystoscopy and atypical cytology)​ to enable earlier detection of tumours and to help treatment prioritisation.​

“In the surveillance setting, Cxbladder has been shown to reduce the frequency of surveillance cystoscopy, sparing patients the potential risks, discomfort, and anxiety from cystoscopy, without compromising detection rates. It can also free up resources to be focused on patients most in need and facilitate compliance with cancer surveillance and management regimes.”

The tests are also covered for reimbursement by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).

“After two years of COVID affecting such important gatherings, the AUA meeting offers Pacific Edge unmatched opportunities to engage with the clinicians that regularly order Cxbladder tests to assess and manage their patients’ care. Conferences are an ideal forum to engage with clinicians,” says David Levison, Executive Chairman of Pacific Edge’s operations in the US.

“Events such as these take urologists away from the daily pressures of their clinical practice. The relaxed and informal setting gives them opportunities to focus on the latest developments in their field and discuss them with their colleagues and leading clinicians.”

[t.rexjr]

"...the more than 500 monthly users of Cxbladder products..."...

If a "user" is a patient, it seems very low, but if a "user" is a clinician numbers could be looking promising...!! ”

If it were clinicians then it would've said that as that surely...? Mind you each clinician isn't likely to be doing multiple tests a month so whether a user is patient or clinician probably neither here nor there...

Of course a "user" could also be both patient and clinician...

[BigBob]

If it were clinicians then it would've said that as that surely...? Mind you each clinician isn't likely to be doing multiple tests a month so whether a user is patient or clinician probably neither here nor there...

Of course a "user" could also be both patient and clinician...

Indeed... Could be either or both... Maybe anyone who orders a test...? I do think clinicians with many patients would likely be ordering more than one test per month... Very unlikely that an individual patient would...

Strange wording regardless - they have previously always referred to clinicians and patients....

[psychic]

Yes that "500 monthly users" line a bit hard to fathom. Can't be throughput, that'd be awful.

The "dramatically increased the size of it's presence in Main Exhibition Hall" means it had a 20'x10' in-line booth this year. Exciting.
But I can't see that there was any yabber about Cxbladder in any of the presentations? So no significant swing in adoption, just nice chats?

Just suggesting they got the warm fuzzies a bit of an odd announcement to specifically bring to market this close to results I thought?

[pierre]

Rather than speculate as to what PEB means by "500 monthly users" I have just emailed the company asking them to clarify the statement. I will publish an update when they respond.

[Minerbarejet]

What should be maybe considered is that 500 "users" are not following AUA guidelines these days due to the overwhelming need for AUA to up their act after 2 years of covid related non events.

[Minerbarejet]

Indeed... Could be either or both... Maybe anyone who orders a test...? I do think clinicians with many patients would likely be ordering more than one test per month... Very unlikely that an individual patient would...

Strange wording regardless - they have previously always referred to clinicians and patients....
Individual patients would have a physician/ urologist attached somewhere in the process for the test results.

A patient in home test would require physician/ urologist authorization in order for billing and test results to take place.

Its not like you can rush out and get a 6 pack of tests at Walmart.

[pierre]

I received the following reply from PEB to my request for clarification of the term "500 monthly users" in their recent communication to shareholders following the AUA meeting:

"The “users” we refer to is the ordering clinician, of which most are US based. Our Account Executive team in the US are focused on increasing test adoption by urologists, who are the users of the test to assist in the assessment of their patients."


That's positive though, of course, the next question is: What is the average number of tests per month ordered by each clinician? Hopefully that information might be revealed in the FY report at month-end.

I did a Google search and found that in 2019 the US urologist population totaled around 13,000. That means only ~4% of them are using Cxbladder so there's plenty of room for growth. :)

[850man]

Thanks for researching and sharing that reply Pierre

[Minerbarejet]

I received the following reply from PEB to my request for clarification of the term "500 monthly users" in their recent communication to shareholders following the AUA meeting:

"The “users” we refer to is the ordering clinician, of which most are US based. Our Account Executive team in the US are focused on increasing test adoption by urologists, who are the users of the test to assist in the assessment of their patients."


That's positive though, of course, the next question is: What is the average number of tests per month ordered by each clinician? Hopefully that information might be revealed in the FY report at month-end.

I did a Google search and found that in 2019 the US urologist population totaled around 13,000. That means only ~4% of them are using Cxbladder so there's plenty of room for growth. :)
Thanks Pierre - good news

[Minerbarejet]

I received the following reply from PEB to my request for clarification of the term "500 monthly users" in their recent communication to shareholders following the AUA meeting:

"The “users” we refer to is the ordering clinician, of which most are US based. Our Account Executive team in the US are focused on increasing test adoption by urologists, who are the users of the test to assist in the assessment of their patients."


That's positive though, of course, the next question is: What is the average number of tests per month ordered by each clinician? Hopefully that information might be revealed in the FY report at month-end.

I did a Google search and found that in 2019 the US urologist population totaled around 13,000. That means only ~4% of them are using Cxbladder so there's plenty of room for growth. :)
By that I take it they mean that 500 ordering clinicians are using cxbladder at least once a month so at a minimum we have 500 times 12 = 6000 tests times 1000NZd for a minimum of 6,000,000 per annum with just one patient tested per month.
One patient a week by the 500 mentioned would produce 24,000,000.

Think we might be in for a surprise this week.:)

[zs_cecil]

By that I take it they mean that 500 ordering clinicians are using cxbladder at least once a month so at a minimum we have 500 times 12 = 6000 tests times 1000NZd for a minimum of 6,000,000 per annum with just one patient tested per month.
One patient a week by the 500 mentioned would produce 24,000,000.

Think we might be in for a surprise this week.:)

What about taking FY22H1 data for the estimate :-)

In FY22H1, there are 9,192 commercial tests.
So, each user have 3 tests per month in average.

9,192 ÷ 6 ÷ 500 = 3.06 test per user per month.

Let's assume 3 to 4 tests per month per user is a reasonable range for the entire financial year.

We have 18,000 to 24,000 commercial test in FY22.

500 × 3 × 12 = 18,000
500 × 4 × 12 = 24,000

Please note that the commercial test number in FY21 was 12,975.

[Minerbarejet]

What about taking FY22H1 data for the estimate :-)

In FY22H1, there are 9,192 commercial tests.
So, each user have 3 tests per month in average.

9,192 ÷ 6 ÷ 500 = 3.06 test per user per month.

Let's assume 3 to 4 tests per month per user is a reasonable range for the entire financial year.

We have 18,000 to 24,000 commercial test in FY22.

500 × 3 × 12 = 18,000
500 × 4 × 12 = 24,000

Please note that the commercial test number in FY21 was 12,975.

Couple of problems with that for me.

Are you using the 9,192 figure from P7 of the HY2022 report?
If so that is a worldwide figure and is a cash income figure (NZD$000 on the side) not actual test tally as far as I can see.

On another unrelated matter:
Much enthusiasm at the AUA by PEBs account - could be that some of the 500 current monthly users would have attended and made a fair bit of noise on PEB's behalf having had great support from the cxbladder test.
Where better to get the word out and influence the outcome than at a major AUA conference moderated by a long term supporter of the cxbladder products, Dr Ashish Kamat

[pierre]

By that I take it they mean that 500 ordering clinicians are using cxbladder at least once a month so at a minimum we have 500 times 12 = 6000 tests times 1000NZd for a minimum of 6,000,000 per annum with just one patient tested per month.
One patient a week by the 500 mentioned would produce 24,000,000.

Think we might be in for a surprise this week.:)

I've done similar calculations and believe there is a good chance we finally may start to see our patience being rewarded.

[zs_cecil]

Couple of problems with that for me.

Are you using the 9,192 figure from P7 of the HY2022 report?
If so that is a worldwide figure and is a cash income figure (NZD$000 on the side) not actual test tally as far as I can see.

Yes, I use that figure from P7 of the presentation. The cash receipt was reported in Page 9. So, I thought the NZ$000 on page 7 was a mistake in the presentation.

[Minerbarejet]

I've done similar calculations and believe there is a good chance we finally may start to see our patience being rewarded.
There is another wrinkle to all this in that we are assuming that everything is all evenly spaced each month.
With the Monitor system there may be lots of urologists using a test every three months or so which would fit in with the regimen and may have initiated coverage with several patients at the start simultaneously.
Lets hope the information is forthcoming this week - we have been in the dark long enough.

As far as rewards go, Pierre, the length of time it has taken so far indicates a SP of at least 5.00 would be required as adequate compensation. :)

[DonkeyKong]

Cheers minerbarejet that’s a great post with good information for me to dig into.

Interesting thoughts t.rexjr. I saw in today’s presentation slides that their Q1 FY22 their total laboratory throughput grew 9% on the previous quarter, Q4 FY21. Without knowing at all whether this is a fair assumption or not. If one assumed they have 9% growth quarter on quarter this year. That could put their throughput at 1.09^4 times the size of Q4 FY21 for the year. So using the numbers I could find quickly:
- 15814 total throughput for FY21
- Q1FY22 up 35% on FY21 quarterly average

That would put FY22 throughput at 15814/4*1.35+15814*3/4*1.35*1.09^3 = 26073 rounded up. So 64.87% increase or 10529 increase in absolute terms.

I’m not sure what I think about that. And I do wonder if this is the type of thing that could have snowballing growth which could make the assumption unfair. Anyways, it has given me some interesting stuff to dig into and will be interesting to see how it plays out for PEB.

This was a rough projection I did back in September 2021

It played out pretty accurately for the half year results.

If I get time before the full year results. I'll try revisit it taking into account the 500 users information.

[pierre]

As far as rewards go, Pierre, the length of time it has taken so far indicates a SP of at least 5.00 would be required as adequate compensation. :)


I'm not greedy Miner but I do like lot - you're obviously much the same!

[kiora]

Why, after so many years, investors are still in the dark and assume a lot about this company?

[jridler]

Why, after so many years, investors are still in the dark and assume a lot about this company?
All will be clear in 2 days when the FY results are released.

[Minerbarejet]

All will be clear in 2 days when the FY results are released.
Regardless of what happens more patients will be required.




Ill get my coat.

[Retired Doc]

Regardless of what happens more patients will be required.




Ill get my coat.

Thanks Miner


Patients and patience.......?

Re the 500 clinical users (thanks Pierre) and the estimate by Cecil of 3-4 tests per user per month I would expect that any urologist convinced of the worth of CxB would have occasion to use the test a lot more frequently than 3 -4 times per month and maybe those figures include late adopters.

I have the impression that the numbers are “a little bit exponential”.

Thursday reveals...........

[Minerbarejet]

Thanks Miner


Patients and patience.......?

Re the 500 clinical users (thanks Pierre) and the estimate by Cecil of 3-4 tests per user per month I would expect that any urologist convinced of the worth of CxB would have occasion to use the test a lot more frequently than 3 -4 times per month and maybe those figures include late adopters.

I have the impression that the numbers are “a little bit exponential”.

Thursday reveals...........
Might pay to consider the effect of 14 extra sales personnel since the 2022 HY results as well- one would assume they would have had at least a couple of months input to the second half after training.

[Maxtrade]

Pre leak on update tomorrow? Quite a last minute 5% push and volume swelling on bids within the last hour compared to all week.

[winner69]

Pre leak on update tomorrow? Quite a last minute 5% push and volume swelling on bids within the last hour compared to all week.

Looking good for tomorrow .....solid financials and a new game changing development announced?

[Walter]

Might pay to consider the effect of 14 extra sales personnel since the 2022 HY results as well- one would assume they would have had at least a couple of months input to the second half after training.
You would like to think that they are earning their keep, but I've been "invested" long enough to suspect that they are just giving out free tests to anyone that will take them.

[pierre]

Looking good for tomorrow .....solid financials and a new game changing development announced?

Possibly, perhaps, maybe, potentially, could be, conceivably, might be ...but I'm just not sure. :)

Nice to see the SP up a few points today but I prefer to wait for the announcement than speculate at this point.

[Ggcc]

I feel this might be a disappointing announcement, I’m guessing 11.3 million turnover, but the game is apparently longterm and so longterm many have been waiting for years and years and years. Covid seems to be the go to excuse, but now we see that covid is not that bad currently 🤞, we may see better results next year. I’m still invested but I don’t think we will se higher than those numbers. Happy to be wrong

[Minerbarejet]

Looking good for tomorrow .....solid financials and a new game changing development announced?
We are due for a SE asia update - some evidence that it is forthcoming by the recent Lab completion announcement.
Pacific Edge CEO, Dr Peter Meintjes, said: “The upgrade – the first since the laboratory was opened in 2011 – highlights our confidence in Cxbladder becoming embedded as the standard of care for the diagnosis and management of urothelial cancer in the Asia Pacific and further afield.”
“It gives us the space to expand testing capacity as the volume of tests from the Asia Pacific rises, supports the implementation of anticipated commercial tests as they emerge from research and development, and provides our team with a better working environment.”

[Brain]

I feel this might be a disappointing announcement, I’m guessing 11.3 million turnover, but the game is apparently longterm and so longterm many have been waiting for years and years and years. Covid seems to be the go to excuse, but now we see that covid is not that bad currently 爛, we may see better results next year. I’m still invested but I don’t think we will se higher than those numbers. Happy to be wrong

I hope you are very wrong as probably you do as well. I am siding with miner on this. I like his optimism and after all optimists (and blondes) have more fun.

$20 M revenue is my guess.

[Walter]

At 20 million it still trades at over 30 times sales. Zoom was 29x, now about 5x and Zoom makes a profit.

[Sideshow Bob]

Audited Financial Results for the year to 31 March 2022 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392721)

PACIFIC EDGE SEES GROWTH INITIATIVES GAINING TRACTION
HIGHLIGHTS:
• Annual operating revenue increased 49% to $11.4 million, while total revenue increased 33% to $13.9 million
• Total laboratory throughput (TLT) of Cxbladder tests increased 46% to 23,086 tests, while commercial tests (CT) increased 48% to 19,196 tests
• COVID-19 healthcare restrictions constrained growth. The easing of those restrictions and new hires drove increases in TLT and clinician engagement in the final months of the financial year
• Net losses after tax increase to $19.8 million from $14.2 million, reflecting a 37% increase in operating expenses to $33.7 million as the company invested to drive growth
• Initiatives of the Investment Program to drive customer retention, growth, and clinical evidence generation relevant to guideline inclusion announced
• The initiatives of the Investment Program in FY23 will be phased in proportion to business milestones to responsibly manage burn rate
• Pacific Edge is well funded with cash and cash equivalents and short-term deposits at $105.4 million at the end of the financial year, following the successful $103.5 million capital raise and dual listing on the ASX in 2021

[Minerbarejet]

At last, a figure to work with!

“Average weekly test throughput in the US from the start of April to last week was 455 tests per week, a figure 25% higher than the average of the last year. These objective indicators, and the subjective positive feedback from those regularly using Cxbladder, demonstrate that clinicians are gaining increasing confidence in the use of Cxbladder earlier in the patient care pathway.

[Sideshow Bob]

At last, a figure to work with!

“Average weekly test throughput in the US from the start of April to last week was 455 tests per week, a figure 25% higher than the average of the last year. These objective indicators, and the subjective positive feedback from those regularly using Cxbladder, demonstrate that clinicians are gaining increasing confidence in the use of Cxbladder earlier in the patient care pathway.

Interesting to see how the markets react. I can't get too excited by any of it.....;)

[psychic]

Refreshing to read a more balanced and honest report, easier now I guess that they have the finance and are not fighting for survival from Cash Raise to Cash Raise. A long way to go yet.

[Balance]

Interesting to see how the markets react. I can't get too excited by any of it.....;)

PEB's results have always tended to result in the sp doing nothing - it's announcements which drive the stock price.

Quick glance at the results shows that it's broadly in line with market expectations :

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PACIFIC-EDGE-LIMITED-20700875/financials/

[Maxtrade]

PEB's results have always tended to result in the sp doing nothing - it's announcements which drive the stock price.

Quick glance at the results shows that it's broadly in line with market expectations :

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PACIFIC-EDGE-LIMITED-20700875/financials/

Positive to see operating revenue and general revenue increase substantially, and tests increase 46%. The market will likely first off digest this information favourably.

[pierre]

More promises of a rosy future albeit finally backed up with a few numbers.

US test totals of 455 per week equates ~24,000 per annum. With a bit of traction we might see that number rise to something in the mid 30s next year. With any luck, might even hit 40k.

The big question is how many of these are or will be paid for? The reported commercial test revenue of $11.4m suggests there are still plenty of freebies going through the system.

Ive only had a quick scan of the lengthy (42 page) presentation but havent spotted any mention of recovery of all those unpaid tests that DD was optimistically anticipating in prior years.

The online results announcement will be interesting viewing later this morning.

As Retired Doc said on here a couple of days ago "more patients and patience required" - once again.

[Minerbarejet]

More promises of a rosy future albeit finally backed up with a few numbers.

US test totals of 455 per week equates ~24,000 per annum. With a bit of traction we might see that number rise to something in the mid 30s next year. With any luck, might even hit 40k.

The big question is how many of these are or will be paid for? The reported commercial test revenue of $11.4m suggests there are still plenty of freebies going through the system.

Ive only had a quick scan of the lengthy (42 page) presentation but havent spotted any mention of recovery of all those unpaid tests that DD was optimistically anticipating in prior years.

The online results announcement will be interesting viewing later this morning.

As Retired Doc said on here a couple of days ago "more patients and patience required" - once again.
You are not suggesting " several tens of thousands" are you Pierre. :)

[winner69]

Another year ..... this time $20m down the gurgler .... accumulated losses now $190m

Amazing performance over the years

I can say things like this because part of that $190m is some real cash of mine I donated to the cause a few years ago ..... but PEB has been a good punting stock over the years

[pierre]

You are not suggesting " several tens of thousands" are you Pierre. :)

Haha. I hope you noted the words "might" and "luck" Miner - both are very important qualifiers.

[Balance]

Another year ..... this time $20m down the gurgler .... accumulated losses now $190m

Amazing performance over the years

I can say things like this because part of that $190m is some real cash of mine I donated to the cause a few years ago ..... but PEB has been a good punting stock over the years

Without DD to talk the big talk, there's only one way for the sp to perform and that's to perform & deliver results.

Could be a long long wait?

[Habits]

Have had dogged persistence with this mangey mutt, out she goes. I managed to make a small fortune ie a large fortune reduced by loss... how sad. Probably spend the dough on something frivolous and wasteful which will be more likely to have better returns.

[thegreatestben]

I put mine on the mortgage, feeling the squeeze there.

[Maxtrade]

Positive to see the funds from Cap Raise look to have been put to productive use. 50% increase in revenue should be viewed as upbeat. As we all knew, profits on this update were never going to have materialised yet. So it should not be concerned seeing losses increase. They are using the funds to get the product out to market. Traction can be seen from these results in this regard. Those that were expecting or hoping for anything different were too hopeful, especially at this stage with the disruptions and disruptions from Covid. There will be those that sell who were hoping for more. But that is unrealistic, the report can be seen as positive as to be expected with all at hand. Investors should feel comfortable and happy that the funds from the Cap Raise look to be putting to good use. Continuing on this trend things are looking on the right track. In regards to SP, will likely see traders and funds do the old sell down focusing on no gain in profits. Then buy back in strongly once they drag the SP down a notch. Likely to see SP touch down on 0.77 maybe even briefly 0.75? but then a strong buy follow pushing back up 0.85-0.95. Will take future announcement once test volumes continue to grow and profits to be seen at the end of the tunnel to push SP back up to Cap Raise 1.35 and above. Or an announcement of adoption by another medical institution getting on board, Singapore advancements etc.

Probably quite a few sitting with their finger on the buy order if touches down to key level 0.78. We will see how this week finishes. All around a good report that I would say was in line with what most longer term investors would have been expecting and hoped for.

[Habits]

Yes am probably selling at bottom of cycle, buy high sell low, no worries. Not suggesting anyone else should do so, or think it is an effective trading strategy.

[kiwidollabill]

Someone might want to ask why their COO left only after a few months in the job. They were very happy to announce the arrival but not the departure...

Call that a bit of local Dunedin insight.

[pierre]

More promises of a rosy future albeit finally backed up with a few numbers.

I've only had a quick scan of the lengthy (42 page) presentation but haven't spotted any mention of recovery of all those unpaid tests that DD was optimistically anticipating in prior years.

The answer to the above issue is in the Notes to the Financial Statements (P13):

"....In previous Financial Statements the Group reported that while no revenue has been received or recognised on these 22,634 tests, the Group still noted the potential of future receipt as negotiations continued. Negotiations have concluded and no further avenue is available for the Group to obtain reimbursement."

I was also interested to read in the Notes (P 10) that in the US although a physician orders a Cxbladder test, it is the individual patient who is PEB's customer.

"The Group [PEB] receives and processes the urine sample and returns the results of the test back to the ordering physician. The individual patient is the Group’s customer, however typically in the US market, the patient’s insurer may pay the Group for some or all of the cost of the test.

When a physician orders a Cxbladder test, the Group has an obligation to perform the test and report the results to the ordering physician irrespective of the patient’s insurance contract. A patient may have private insurance cover, be covered by the US government’s medical program through CMS, self cover or have no insurance cover.Once the Cxbladder test has been completed, all information required for insurance purposes is sent to the Group’s billing and reimbursement agent to begin the process to collect reimbursement from any applicable insurance company/ies for the Cxbladder test performed.

....For uninsured patients, the Group has no certainty of when or if the patient will pay."

From the reported numbers and the revenue received and commentary in the Financial Statements, there appears to be quite a lot of tests that are not paid for either through being done on a charitable basis, FOC in order to attract new clinicians to use the products, or not fully reimbursed by the insurer. Multiplying the commercial test number by $1,000 clearly is an unreliable formula to estimate revenue.

[stoploss]

The answer to the above issue is in the Notes to the Financial Statements (P13):

"....In previous Financial Statements the Group reported that while no revenue has been received or recognised on these 22,634 tests, the Group still noted the potential of future receipt as negotiations continued. Negotiations have concluded and no further avenue is available for the Group to obtain reimbursement."

I was also interested to read in the Notes (P 10) that in the US although a physician orders a Cxbladder test, it is the individual patient who is PEB's customer.

"The Group [PEB] receives and processes the urine sample and returns the results of the test back to the ordering physician. The individual patient is the Group’s customer, however typically in the US market, the patient’s insurer may pay the Group for some or all of the cost of the test.

When a physician orders a Cxbladder test, the Group has an obligation to perform the test and report the results to the ordering physician irrespective of the patient’s insurance contract. A patient may have private insurance cover, be covered by the US government’s medical program through CMS, self cover or have no insurance cover.Once the Cxbladder test has been completed, all information required for insurance purposes is sent to the Group’s billing and reimbursement agent to begin the process to collect reimbursement from any applicable insurance company/ies for the Cxbladder test performed.

....For uninsured patients, the Group has no certainty of when or if the patient will pay."

From the reported numbers and the revenue received and commentary in the Financial Statements, there appears to be quite a lot of tests that are not paid for either through being done on a charitable basis, FOC in order to attract new clinicians to use the products, or not fully reimbursed by the insurer. Multiplying the commercial test number by $1,000 clearly is an unreliable formula to estimate revenue.

So the Physican in theory could say "we need one of these tests I know you can't pay , go and get it done , you don't have to pay ...."
Might have to change that model , even have to pay for the car at the mechanic these days before they will release it.

[850man]

So the Physican in theory could say "we need one of these tests I know you can't pay , go and get it done , you don't have to pay ...."
Might have to change that model , even have to pay for the car at the mechanic these days before they will release it.

They did clarify on the call today that if a physician deems the test "medically necessary" that where CMS is the insurer, they will cover the costs of the test.

[850man]

Good pick Maxtrade - closing at 77c, 7.2% down today after the results announcement with not much propping it up

[thegreatestben]

I seriously weighed up the likelihood of the result dropping the SP when I threw in the towel, was a anxious couple of days but I guess I made the right call. Would have been better if I got out at the 1.20+ mark. Lesson learned.

[Balance]

I seriously weighed up the likelihood of the result dropping the SP when I threw in the towel, was a anxious couple of days but I guess I made the right call. Would have been better if I got out at the 1.20+ mark. Lesson learned.

Look back over the last 4 result announcements and my recall is that the sp dropped each time after the announcement.

The last placement of shares to Australian instos is great for boosting PEB's financial position (so well done!) but it means that the cornerstone institutional shareholders here are going to struggle to hold up the sp - when the Aussie instos want out, they sell until they are finished, no half hearted measure by them. Just have a look at PX1.

So do be careful out there if you are trying to pick a bottom this time round.

[winner69]

The presentation said “This is viewed as a marathon, not a sprint,” when talking growth

I’d say more like an ultra-marathon

[Balance]

The presentation said “This is viewed as a marathon, not a sprint,” when talking growth

I’d say more like an ultra-marathon

New CEO, new marathon?

Been already 20 years in the running!

Must however hand it to DD for having the stamina & ability to talk the talk and walk the talk! He has left PEB in a superb financial position for the next 3 years.

[DonkeyKong]

What's interesting about their total throughput is in:
- Q1 FY22 they grew 9% on their Q4 FY21
- Q2 FY22 they grew about 9.85% on their Q1 FY22
- From H2 FY21 to H1 FY22 they grew 24.42%
- But on their H2 FY22 they only grew 7.91% on their H1 FY22

Yet their US sales team grew 42.86% in H2 FY22

So with a large increase in sales team size their test throughput growth percentage had a large decrease.

Hmmmm

[barney]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-loss-increases-39-198-million

[Maxtrade]

I seriously weighed up the likelihood of the result dropping the SP when I threw in the towel, was a anxious couple of days but I guess I made the right call. Would have been better if I got out at the 1.20+ mark. Lesson learned.

SP will bounce back up again. In process of establishing lower end trough on this downtrend cycle. Once this forms, a support base will swell in bid volume. Then will gradually uptrend until the next announcement with continued forward momentum.

People selling out of fear generally currently. This tide will turn. For those holding, steady hands. For those that have sold out already, waiting to see where trough forms then we will likely see a surge on the buy side once investors feel confident SP not dropping further. Will be interesting to see if that fear sell slide has ran its course yesterday. As the results were not bad, and only to be expected. Might see a fall back to 0.7 or lower today as nervous holders shake out. Many will be waiting with finger on the pulse to see where momentum switches as many will be ready to take advantage of buying back on the dip. Definitely in oversold waters with mid term RSI

This is quite a pertinent point.
"While the impact of Covid on Pacific Edge’s sales had been "very real", the company had been able to grow while others had not, he said."
The fact that PB has been able to grow during this difficult global covid time that we are now coming out of should not be undervalued. The future is still bright for PEB. Anyone that was expecting some kind of miracle results on this latest update was expecting too much and not factoring in reality of the hurdles we have all faced the last 2 years. Approaching 50% reduction to CR even fund mangers will likely consider that a buy opportunity too inviting to not take advantage of. Sell the hype buy the fear, hard to do but normally when and where big money is made.

[Baa_Baa]

This time is different (https://invst.ly/y7wfp)?

[Maxtrade]

Look back over the last 4 result announcements and my recall is that the sp dropped each time after the announcement.

The last placement of shares to Australian instos is great for boosting PEB's financial position (so well done!) but it means that the cornerstone institutional shareholders here are going to struggle to hold up the sp - when the Aussie instos want out, they sell until they are finished, no half hearted measure by them. Just have a look at PX1.

So do be careful out there if you are trying to pick a bottom this time round.

Good point Balance however PX1 is a completely different beast to PEB/healthcare. The growth potential through the biotechnological advancements of CX Bladder offer something new and advantageous to the healthcare sector, as opposed to anything PX1 had to offer into its respective market?

The instos won't bail out all of a sudden, because they bought in believing in the future of the technology on offer. And the growth of its key market in US, and to then be followed by other countries (such as Singapore etc). Instos will see these results as in-line with expectations. Looking at the positives on the growth during this tough time rather than the net losses at this stage. Losses having increased because they've been investing more into sales and marketing, which is what is needed to be done when breaking into large markets. The upside potential of getting established in such a large market is where the future growth and returns remain. That's why the instos got on board in the first place. They won't sell out because weaker nervous hands of retail investors are pulling SP down. They are steadier than that and look further out. The market is most definitely oversold after to be expected results in line with analysts expectations.

[winner69]

This time is different (https://invst.ly/y7wfp)?

Nice one baabaa

looks lie 20 cents here we come

I enjoyed selling shares about 150 ... those were the days -- twice

[Habits]

Countless times, that the Shark Tank investors (yes I watch it a lot) rule out anything that involves explaining to customers how the product works or how it might make a difference to them. Often those products are quite good, short-sighted approach that other investors would live by

[Maxtrade]

Nice one baabaa

looks lie 20 cents here we come

I enjoyed selling shares about 150 ... those were the days -- twice

Is this really your prediction on where you believe SP is heading. What were the reasons that gave you the confidence holding up to $1.5 before selling, and what has all of a sudden changed on those parameters after this update. For the same reasons that was pushing the SP higher recently to it's most recent peak of $1.50 still hold. These recent results don't contradict anything to that matter and were in line with expectations. The adoption into US partnerships was slowed with the past 2 years of covid. However as the world comes out of that now then forward momentum with these channels should continue to be developed and grow. Hence why it appears this is now in oversold territory especially off these recent results.

Sizeable bids set at trigger 0.70 unfortunately didnt look like quite made it there. Will see how rest of day settles in. If I am wrong then might see 0.70 trigger (which upside would be good as ), but it appears might have missed the bottom of this slide and need to increase bid order. Will monitor and see where demand is suggesting momentum by close today.

[winner69]

Is this really your prediction on where you believe SP is heading. What were the reasons that gave you the confidence holding up to $1.5 before selling, and what has all of a sudden changed on those parameters after this update. For the same reasons that was pushing the SP higher recently to it's most recent peak of $1.50 still hold. These recent results don't contradict anything to that matter and were in line with expectations. The adoption into US partnerships was slowed with the past 2 years of covid. However as the world comes out of that now then forward momentum with these channels should continue to be developed and grow. Hence why it appears this is now in oversold territory especially off these recent results.

Sizeable bids set at trigger 0.70 unfortunately didnt look like quite made it there. Will see how rest of day settles in. If I am wrong then might see 0.70 trigger (which upside would be good as ), but it appears might have missed the bottom of this slide and need to increase bid order. Will monitor and see where demand is suggesting momentum by close today.

that 20 cents no more logic than looking at baabaa's chart

Yep good times at 140 and above --- never worth that on fundamentals but sentiment / euphoria / irrationality is a great thing

First time was after Swanny bless his soul raved about tens of thousands of tests (or was it hundreds of thousands) and boy did that get punters excited and share price went to 170 and more recently David was a great story teller and all this transformational expansion ' contracts was wonderful and share price peaked again.

That's about it maxtrade - nothing to do with parameters or other fundamental stuff .... just market sentiment

That sucks at the moment eh .... maybe one day it will get exciting again .... you'd think they would be able to spin some great stories with all that cash in the bank.

Keeping an eye on the not so squiggly line on the chart .... might turn up one day for a bit more fun

[psychic]

Is this really your prediction on where you believe SP is heading. What were the reasons that gave you the confidence holding up to $1.5 before selling, and what has all of a sudden changed on those parameters after this update. For the same reasons that was pushing the SP higher recently to it's most recent peak of $1.50 still hold. These recent results don't contradict anything to that matter and were in line with expectations. The adoption into US partnerships was slowed with the past 2 years of covid. However as the world comes out of that now then forward momentum with these channels should continue to be developed and grow. Hence why it appears this is now in oversold territory especially off these recent results.

Sizeable bids set at trigger 0.70 unfortunately didnt look like quite made it there. Will see how rest of day settles in. If I am wrong then might see 0.70 trigger (which upside would be good as ), but it appears might have missed the bottom of this slide and need to increase bid order. Will monitor and see where demand is suggesting momentum by close today.

I won't answer for Winner but being the experienced trader he/she is I expect it was a momentum/ hype play rather than anything fundamental.

But I will say that they have started to come clean now on the crap spun in the past. They now acknowledge that the tests are covered by CMS only when medically necessary (rather than implying that they were medically necessary). They still (revenue recognition notes p11) suggest they are being reimbursed by Insurers when I know most deem Cxbladder investigational and not covered. The deal with KP seems to be dragging into eternity. They acknowledge that the tests are not in the clinical pathway and need to get them ino the guidelines - and hence the belated push.

All these previous claims sent the SP to $1.50 and the market has been wildly patient (or jacked by a couple of instos' who have since sold down). The growth should be hockey stick style to support the SP anywhere near where it is even today - think how much you are paying!
And yet PE now acknowledge there is much work to still do.

[psychic]

OOPs sorry Winner explained while I was replying.

Still overpriced at .30 but that is a gap worth looking at..

[winner69]

Blast from the past - 2013

The Pennsylvania lab has the capacity to process 260,000 tests a year and Mr Swann is confident the company will processing ''several tens of thousands of tests'' next year.

and

He reiterated earlier estimates, of achieving an annual $US100 million turnover within five years, noting that was a mid-range estimate.

Should note that even when raving about $US100 he really meant more because he seduced punters with that just being the mid range of estimates

Here's the ODT story from 2013 .... change a few names and they coud publish it again today

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-business

Swann did decent thing back thing - sold a lot of shares at those inflated prices .... needed a new deck he said

[psychic]

I see too that in the notes thay have admitted that there is no more hope of getting paid for those 22000 tests completed for CMS.
I would have thought that this was worthy of a price sensitive announcement?

They did have to refund $143000 though for tests invoiced when they were later found not to be eligible for reimbursement

[winner69]

Somebody taking them over is really the only good outcome I reckon ....but it won't be the $2 billion somebody mentioned

[psychic]

Blast from the past - 2013

The Pennsylvania lab has the capacity to process 260,000 tests a year and Mr Swann is confident the company will processing ''several tens of thousands of tests'' next year.

and

He reiterated earlier estimates, of achieving an annual $US100 million turnover within five years, noting that was a mid-range estimate.

Should note that even when raving about $US100 he really meant more because he seduced punters with that just being the mid range of estimates

Here's the ODT story from 2013 .... change a few names and they coud publish it again today

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-business

Yes, and then the sods sold!!
The Journalist confirmed to me that this was indeed what Swanny had said, Darling denied it.
Never seen a guy look quite as uncomfortable as Swan at the AGM

[Maxtrade]

that 20 cents no more logic than looking at baabaa's chart

Yep good times at 140 and above --- never worth that on fundamentals but sentiment / euphoria / irrationality is a great thing


First time was after Swanny bless his soul raved about tens of thousands of tests (or was it hundreds of thousands) and boy did that get punters excited and share price went to 170 and more recently David was a great story teller and all this transformational expansion ' contracts was wonderful and share price peaked again.

That's about it maxtrade - nothing to do with parameters or other fundamental stuff .... just market sentiment

That sucks at the moment eh .... maybe one day it will get exciting again .... you'd think they would be able to spin some great stories with all that cash in the bank.

Keeping an eye on the not so squiggly line on the chart .... might turn up one day for a bit more fun


The thing with PEB is when it rallies it rallies hard and fast. So if you aren't already in then overnight can miss out on large gains.

For example from May 29th - June 19th 2020 an increase in share price of 150%

From May to July 2020 increased 525%

From Aug to Dec 2020 another 90%
From March 2021 to April 2021 increased another 20%
From May 2021 to Aug 2021 increased another 20%
From Aug 2021 to Sept 2021 increased another 10%

Point being sold gains abruptly off short periods of time.

All it takes is for one of the partnerships to flourish this year (most likely in the US) and with that announcement would see a huge rally again in SP. With how far the current SP has fallen back it would in turn now be highly feasible to see an abrupt rally in SP of 220% pushing SP back up to the 1.4/1.5 with such news. That would be a gain we wouldn't want to miss out on sitting on the sidelines. The fact the instos are NOT selling is also positive. Cancer diagnostics and other health related issues that have been on the back burner during Covid, will ramp back up too the forefront as we now transition out of Covid globally. The states are already seeing more cancer and heart related patients prioritising. How many of us have put off checkups, skin cancer scans, prostate checkups, etc even dental appointments during Covid times. Normality will bring important matters such as cancers back to where they should be, top priority. The fact remains CX-bladder still offers a unique viable screening method that is just getting implemented and utilised in its largest market the US. The fact they were able to gain any traction during the last two years of Covid should be looked upon positively. The market can be harsh on SP with so many retail investors now, selling out of fear, buying out of FOMO. PEB still offers what it has, that has not changed and will continue to grow.

[psychic]

The thing with PEB is when it rallies it rallies hard and fast. So if you aren't already in then overnight can miss out on large gains.

For example from May 29th - June 19th 2020 an increase in share price of 150%

From May to July 2020 increased 525%

From Aug to Dec 2020 another 90%
From March 2021 to April 2021 increased another 20%
From May 2021 to Aug 2021 increased another 20%
From Aug 2021 to Sept 2021 increased another 10%

Point being sold gains abruptly off short periods of time.

All it takes is for one of the partnerships to flourish this year (most likely in the US) and with that announcement would see a huge rally again in SP. With how far the current SP has fallen back it would in turn now be highly feasible to see an abrupt rally in SP of 220% pushing SP back up to the 1.4/1.5 with such news. That would be a gain we wouldn't want to miss out on sitting on the sidelines. The fact the instos are NOT selling is also positive. Cancer diagnostics and other health related issues that have been on the back burner during Covid, will ramp back up too the forefront as we now transition out of Covid globally. The states are already seeing more cancer and heart related patients prioritising. How many of us have put off checkups, skin cancer scans, prostate checkups, etc even dental appointments during Covid times. Normality will bring important matters such as cancers back to where they should be, top priority. The fact remains CX-bladder still offers a unique viable screening method that is just getting implemented and utilised in its largest market the US. The fact they were able to gain any traction during the last two years of Covid should be looked upon positively. The market can be harsh on SP with so many retail investors now, selling out of fear, buying out of FOMO. PEB still offers what it has, that has not changed and will continue to grow.

The announcements were crap!
The insto's have been selling down!

[psychic]

I get that Covid has restricted face to face calls and this may have impacted uptake with some Urologists. But if ever there was a time when an at home test might have been invaluable and a great tool this was it, surely? There just isn't the confidence and the slow uptake and need to hard sell proves this I think. New Zealand sales flat year on year on year, yet we have full adoption by 70% of DHB's and in the cinical pathway here.
And a caveat on US growth and commercial test throughput, consider that these tests do not necessarilly convert to revenue. If they are not covered (or considered medically necessary by CMS) they are not reimbursed. And I am starting to suspect that this is the case more often than not.

[Snow Leopard]

While there are a lotta gotchas in revenue recognition I am thinking that average revenue for a commercial test is NZ$600 and that with a 85% US bias.

To be honest I am not impressed with this result.

[Minerbarejet]

Blast from the past - 2013

The Pennsylvania lab has the capacity to process 260,000 tests a year and Mr Swann is confident the company will processing ''several tens of thousands of tests'' next year.

and

He reiterated earlier estimates, of achieving an annual $US100 million turnover within five years, noting that was a mid-range estimate.

Should note that even when raving about $US100 he really meant more because he seduced punters with that just being the mid range of estimates

Here's the ODT story from 2013 .... change a few names and they coud publish it again today

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/pacific-edge-business

Swann did decent thing back thing - sold a lot of shares at those inflated prices .... needed a new deck he said

Sometimes we have to take into account that there may be plenty of other reasons for selling besides needing a new deck.
And anyway I was under the impression it was Dave that needed the new deck.

[850man]

When it comes to free tests vs paid for tests, the report states:
"• Annual operating revenue increased 49% to $11.4 million, while total revenue increased 33% to $13.9 million
• Total laboratory throughput (TLT) of Cxbladder tests increased 46% to 23,086 tests, while commercial tests (CT) increased 48% to 19,196 tests"

Taking the $11.4M figure as the income from tests and the CT number of 19,196 that comes out just shy of $600 a pop. I may be totally wrong with these calcs, just taking a guess from what was published.

So around 17% of tests were free. Looking at the growth rate of 48% in commercial tests - if they keep that up, things are definitely trending in the right direction

[psychic]

When it comes to free tests vs paid for tests, the report states:
"• Annual operating revenue increased 49% to $11.4 million, while total revenue increased 33% to $13.9 million
• Total laboratory throughput (TLT) of Cxbladder tests increased 46% to 23,086 tests, while commercial tests (CT) increased 48% to 19,196 tests"

Taking the $11.4M figure as the income from tests and the CT number of 19,196 that comes out just shy of $600 a pop. I may be totally wrong with these calcs, just taking a guess from what was published.

So around 17% of tests were free. Looking at the growth rate of 48% in commercial tests - if they keep that up, things are definitely trending in the right direction

I can't be fagged tonight working it out but note 5 to the accounts did not fill me with much confidence that revenue declared is likely to be received. Such uncertain yap about Insurers and CMS who may or may not pay etc etc. Clearly $11m was received in cash this year (refer cashflow statement) but how much of this was generated prior period I have not worked out. Quite a bit I would think if my Friday night recolllection of CMS timing/ changes to PE's revenue recognition is not totally mush. But consider that majority of sales are US and reimbursed by CMS - at an agreed rate (circa US$750) then at a glance I'd say there is a lot more freebies going on and commercial throughput growth is not something I think I'd want to hang my hat on for the next year - which I hope will not be as news free as I expect.

Just cringe at the SP action today, down 10 cents then magically up to close even without depth to the bid. Cannot help but suggest this is being massaged yet again. It goes on..

[psychic]

PREVIOUSLY UNRECOGNISED REVENUE
Approximately 40% of Cxbladder tests performed by the Group in the US up to 30 June 2020 relate to patients
covered by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The Group invoiced CMS for tests performed
for all patients with CMS coverage, however no revenue from these 22,634 tests has been recognised in the past.
In previous Financial Statements the Group reported that while no revenue has been received or recognised on
these 22,634 tests, the Group still noted the potential of future receipt as negotiations continued. Negotiations
have concluded and no further avenue is available for the Group to obtain reimbursement.


There's say NZ$22m worth of ramping and hope gone just like that. Let you all know by way of a note to the accounts. Pfft

[Habits]

VWAP .... weighted average price 71.8cps, closed 77

[Maxtrade]

I can't be fagged tonight working it out but note 5 to the accounts did not fill me with much confidence that revenue declared is likely to be received. Such uncertain yap about Insurers and CMS who may or may not pay etc etc. Clearly $11m was received in cash this year (refer cashflow statement) but how much of this was generated prior period I have not worked out. Quite a bit I would think if my Friday night recolllection of CMS timing/ changes to PE's revenue recognition is not totally mush. But consider that majority of sales are US and reimbursed by CMS - at an agreed rate (circa US$750) then at a glance I'd say there is a lot more freebies going on and commercial throughput growth is not something I think I'd want to hang my hat on for the next year - which I hope will not be as news free as I expect.

Just cringe at the SP action today, down 10 cents then magically up to close even without depth to the bid. Cannot help but suggest this is being massaged yet again. It goes on..

Yeah crazy SP action, but which way was the massage. Pushed down for the million or so to buy in around 0.70. Or ?? Was looking for the bounce off 0.70 as per my first post today. I agree the SP's are so manipulated these days, pretty hard to make sense of the movements and action today.

[t.rexjr]

The thing with PEB is when it rallies it rallies hard and fast. So if you aren't already in then overnight can miss out on large gains.

For example from May 29th - June 19th 2020 an increase in share price of 150%

From May to July 2020 increased 525%

From Aug to Dec 2020 another 90%
From March 2021 to April 2021 increased another 20%
From May 2021 to Aug 2021 increased another 20%
From Aug 2021 to Sept 2021 increased another 10%

Point being sold gains abruptly off short periods of time.

All it takes is for one of the partnerships to flourish this year (most likely in the US) and with that announcement would see a huge rally again in SP. With how far the current SP has fallen back it would in turn now be highly feasible to see an abrupt rally in SP of 220% pushing SP back up to the 1.4/1.5 with such news. That would be a gain we wouldn't want to miss out on sitting on the sidelines. The fact the instos are NOT selling is also positive. Cancer diagnostics and other health related issues that have been on the back burner during Covid, will ramp back up too the forefront as we now transition out of Covid globally. The states are already seeing more cancer and heart related patients prioritising. How many of us have put off checkups, skin cancer scans, prostate checkups, etc even dental appointments during Covid times. Normality will bring important matters such as cancers back to where they should be, top priority. The fact remains CX-bladder still offers a unique viable screening method that is just getting implemented and utilised in its largest market the US. The fact they were able to gain any traction during the last two years of Covid should be looked upon positively. The market can be harsh on SP with so many retail investors now, selling out of fear, buying out of FOMO. PEB still offers what it has, that has not changed and will continue to grow.

Jeepers...

Hard and fast was the perfect storm not the norm. DD played the perfect hand.
Credible posters debunked the hype but were not heard.
Covid was the very reason that the mass adoption was suddenly plausible, now it's used as an excuse.
There is nothing fast moving about this industry. FOMO and hype vs facts and history. The winners were those that took heed of the latter and made the most of the former. Good luck getting history to repeat

[winner69]

Yeah crazy SP action, but which way was the massage. Pushed down for the million or so to buy in around 0.70. Or ?? Was looking for the bounce off 0.70 as per my first post today. I agree the SP's are so manipulated these days, pretty hard to make sense of the movements and action today.

Share price ‘manipulated’ these days …….don’t think so maxtrade

Don’t fall into the trap of using ‘manipulation’ just to make yourself feel better about a falling share price ……bad for you.