PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd

[geo]

Exactly thanks Minberejet. Peb is the only stock I own got a few getting more.
I know about all your eggs in one basket, but one famous investor once said that's OK as long as look after the basket.

[AndyLP]

you might wanna jump back in...

[AndyLP]

Absolutely, this thing is surely going to 75 again

Will sure be interesting to see how the market reacts. No exact figures, but still a milestone

[MAC]

Well that announcement was interesting but with no new news, and perhaps a little odd, as we know from the AGM, first US sales occurred in July 2013.

So, …., first "commercial" sales now means, first sales through FedMed funded clinicians ?

[zs_cecil]

First US sale achieved. Another good little piece of news just announced. Well done. Seems everybody is busy in Xero Thread.

[Nigel]

Another milestone, another validation of business model and progress.
Another few cents SP increase on the way (71 look slike it's about to go).

[GR8DAY]

Sold out at 70 today, saw the lack of buyers and fled :)

Healthy correction after a nearly 50% run. Tis Friday and insto's/funds will take their money now. :)


.....you might regret that m8......your'e now trading the wrong stock.......it's all growth from here on, beginning as of now.......runs on the board. No disappointment in the latest bit of news at all.........EXPONENTIAL GROWTH FROM HERE ON!! Just sit back RELAX and watch the steady improvement in SP. HOLDER!

[benjitara]

"the processing of patient samples is exceeding the prompt turnaround times
expected by clinicians delivering on our brand promise".

Nice to hear that.

Due diligence will be rewarded for long term holders. traders will consistently be guessing about this stock. Back two horses each-way always cuts profits and adds indecision. I'll keep on buying when traders get nervous in their seats.

[MAC]

David Darling is in the US at present and PEB are clearly in discussion with several LUG's and insurers over there, I'm reconciling the timing and content of this announcement such that it was intended entirely for a US audience.

[gv1]

Dipped in this one as well..see how it goes.

[CJ]

I must say I am confused by it. It sounds like their first sale. Or maybe the previous sale,a s we know there has been at least one, was a private sale (ie. a home test)

[blakecb]

I've bought more today. I like the announcement - it is a 'ducks in a row' type announcement. Yesterday we heard they have access to docs/patients through their big agreement and today we are told that access is resulting in commercial sales.

Or maybe they thought, hey yesterday was fun, let's try that again.

[blobbles]

I must say I am confused by it. It sounds like their first sale. Or maybe the previous sale,a s we know there has been at least one, was a private sale (ie. a home test)

Most likely yes, home sales as the product is simple and available to all. Someone was posting a personal blog account of an individual who was recovering from bladder cancer (I believe?) who was sending away for CxBladder. Direct to the public is a sales pathway for them.

[False Profit]

BOOM!! They come in with another right hook!


PEB
18/10/2013 12:34
GENERAL

REL: 1234 HRS Pacific Edge Limited

GENERAL: PEB: Cxbladder is Supreme Winner at NZ Innovators Awards

18 October 2013

Cxbladder is Supreme Winner at NZ Innovators Awards

Pacific Edge is the 2013 Supreme Winner of the NZ Innovators Award for
Cxbladder, its novel gene test for the detection and management of bladder
cancer.

The citation for the Supreme Award presented in Auckland last night (17
October 2013) says: "Patient compliance is significantly enhanced with the
easy-to-use, in home or in clinic urine sample system. This detection system
minimises the need to go to a laboratory collection centre or wait to see the
specialist at a time when the cancer can be progressing".

Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David Darling says Cxbladder is a quick,
cost effective, non-invasive and highly accurate cancer detection test that
has significant advantages over alternative systems.

"Our focus is on developing systems for the early detection of cancers; early
detection and treatment saves lives. The Supreme Award for Cxbladder is
recognition of the commercialisation of the innovation, science and
technology that has gone into developing this novel biomedical product and
the work of the entire team of scientists, technologists and clinicians who
have been involved in its development, here and overseas."

"Pacific Edge is delighted that Cxbladder has now been launched in the US and
is also available to potential bladder cancer patients in New Zealand and
Australia and soon in Spain, the country with the worlds highest incidence of
bladder cancer."

[zymwh]

I like the way they do it lol...shall buy more today

[geo]

Ellis Bros Stockbrokers. Just sent out a flash on the latest report from Peb, at least one broker firm is following the play that's going on.

[Minerbarejet]

What does this mean to you?
First Commercial Sales Achieved for Pacific Edge's Cxbladder in the USA

Cancer diagnostic specialist Pacific Edge (NZX:PEB) is delighted to announce
that it has completed the first commercial sales of Cxbladder tests
signalling the start of the commercial revenue for the company in the US. The
tests were ordered by US based clinicians and processed in Pacific Edge USA
(PEDUSA)'s custom laboratory in Hershey Pennsylvania.


For a sale to be completed then they have been paid for it. Allowing time for billing and payment the original order and distribution to the clinicians (plural) may have occurred some time ago.
On top of that there would undoubtedly be more tests in the interim required from these same clinicians from new patients presenting with haematuria and monitoring those unfortunate enough to have contracted bladder cancer. Providing of course they are happy with the results.
Ad astra (to the stars)
Miner

[Bobcat.]

For a sale to be completed then they have been paid for it. Allowing time for billing and payment the original order and distribution to the [/COLOR]clinicians (plural) may have occurred some time ago.
On top of that there would undoubtedly be more tests in the interim required from these same clinicians from new patients presenting with haematuria and monitoring those unfortunate enough to have contracted bladder cancer. Providing of course they are happy with the results.
Ad astra (to the stars)
Miner

A sale does not need to be paid for before it is deemed 'complete'. Organisationally, Sales & Marketing are distinct from Accounts Receivable. In fact, Order Fulfilment is also distinct from Sales (i.e. product or service delivery is also unecessary for a sale to be deemed completed).

BC

[Minerbarejet]

A sale does not need to be paid for before it is deemed 'complete'. Organisationally, Sales & Marketing are distinct from Accounts Receivable. In fact, Order Fulfilment is also distinct from Sales (i.e. product or service delivery is also unecessary for a sale to be deemed completed).

BC
That may very well be but the general tone I get from the statement is that it has established a done and dusted deal that has produced revenue and tested all the systems including billing and payment that are all working as planned.

[CJ]

That may very well be but the general tone I get from the statement is that it has established a done and dusted deal that has produced revenue and tested all the systems including billing and payment that are all working as planned.Could be right as I assume commercial sales would get a monthly invoice with payment due on the 20th of the following.

[Nigel]

not a surpreme being but look into BLT on the ASX.

Or BLT on the NZX?

[Nigel]

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[CJ]

capital gains
taxable income

[winner69]

I am 42 years old and retired I will be the same next week and the week after that so I am doing just fine thanks for asking.
Me thinks, going by what you have said you ditch your DIL shares early this week for a big loss so make sure you add that to your calculation and see if you are still up 53% this week.

Touche - last week was a diiferent week though snapiti

Its this week that matters eh - the losses are all forgotten I believe

[psychic]

Moosie's made 53% capital gains over the past week. How you doing eh?

But Moosie, have you allowed for tax now that you are trading again rather than being the long term holder in DIL? Assume you cannot offset those losses? :eek2::confused:
.

[psychic]

oops , talking over the top, always the slow one

[winner69]

Snapiti - 53% gain per week over a year is a big number isn't it (even after tax)

[winner69]

We digress

In an interview with Darling on the radio I got an impression that the technological they are using for cxbladder is a platform that can be used for other things ........ suggesting that cxbladder is just the first cab of the rank .... much more to come?

[psychic]

Could be right as I assume commercial sales would get a monthly invoice with payment due on the 20th of the following.

FedMed Repricing Options

Electronic Data Interface (EDI)

FedMed's EDI repricing application conforms to all HIPAA regulations. EDI is a paperless process that drastically reduces the expense of manual processing. Clients' experience a significant reduction in transaction cycle times, as well as, a significant reduction in clerical errors. EDI allows clients to submit and receive claims in the ASC X12 837 format release versions 4010 and 5010. Clients can submit daily or multiple batch files electronically to FedMed. Turnaround time typically averages 24-48 hours. Professional and facility claims can both be repriced through our EDI application.

[CJ]

Snapiti - 53% gain per week over a year is a big number isn't it (even after tax)Yes very good. I'd settle for 1% per week if it was guaranteed. Not having such a good year to far.

My tax comments are just to keep people in line. Last thing we want is the Hearld quote ShareTrader (and they do) about all these fabulous tax free capital gains people are earning from trading. I cringe everytime I see a young couple in the NZ Hearld who are quoted as "we bought this as a quick flick and earnt $100k tax free in 6 weeks".

[psychic]

We digress

In an interview with Darling on the radio I got an impression that the technological they are using for cxbladder is a platform that can be used for other things ........ suggesting that cxbladder is just the first cab of the rank .... much more to come?

Yes - details buried in the forum here somewhere Winner, put on back burner while getting cxbladder going as I recall

[CJ]

In an interview with Darling on the radio I got an impression that the technological they are using for cxbladder is a platform that can be used for other things ........ suggesting that cxbladder is just the first cab of the rank .... much more to come?Currently it is a yes or no test. Next stage will advise the severity

http://www.pacificedgedx.com/products/pipeline/

Edit: I think they are still progressing with the prognosis test (an extention of the current product). It is the Cxcolorectal they have put on hold (which is a completely different test).

[Bobcat.]

sp is finding some solid resistance at 72c.

I've sold half and will continue to hold the rest awhile.

My brother-in-law died of a mixture of bladder & lymphatic cancer earlier this year. If this product had been available to his oncologist three years ago, it may (G-willing) have been a different outcome.

This company is a great example of kiwi ingenuity, quality science, credible management, unusually good sales & marketing, and a feel-good, decent product. Me thinks this one can go the distance. Go you wee beauty.

[Minerbarejet]

Could be right as I assume commercial sales would get a monthly invoice with payment due on the 20th of the following.
That was my thought- probably occurred about six weeks ago and whats the bet they have lots more since.
November may have a few sales confirmed but we can look forward to Februarys quarterly report with great interest.
Disc: Holding - on tight
And a big whack up to .74

[Radler]

A 100000 share trade took it through 72.
Yee haa

[Minerbarejet]

A 100000 share trade took it through 72.
Yee haa
Sounds like an insto.
The trade I mean, not you:)

[Minerbarejet]

Must have bought too many the other day, note it has taken them to 4.996%, just under.

[CJ]

ACC actively selling down as well!They only just popped up above 5%, now they have popped back down below.

[GR8DAY]

...ACC sells BUT the intelligent investor buys......think medium term $1.50/longterm $much much more........$5?? Cx Bladder is just the beginning of a big bright and LONG future for this Co.........all things being equal. 72/75c still only back to where it was 3mnths without much news........just a wee bit different now.

[GR8DAY]

...ACC sells BUT the intelligent investor buys......think medium term $1.50/longterm $much much more........$5?? Cx Bladder is just the beginning of a big bright and LONG future for this Co.........all things being equal. 72/75c still only back to where it was 3mnths without much news........just a wee bit different now.

[Mista_Trix]

No follow through, trying to get nervous nellies to buy upwards and then offload late in the day to balance the books. Going to infill with sellers again. Don't take the bait.

I'm not saying you've got it, just making commentary.
Observation Bias.
All you saw a week ago were long term indicators. This week its all chatter short term signals that should influence us all.

Just remember the weakest part of this whole economic thing are those of us observing it.

[GR8DAY]

What was the longest you hold a share without trading it GR8DAY before now? And what happens if the SP drops back to 60, or even 55 cents on the back of sluggish sales that don't live up to market expectations? Are you willing to hold losses for many, many months until sales improve?


.....ah in the case of PEB, many months if I had to m8......and I have. In fact some of my current holding owe me 75c.......been as low as 49c.......still held, no loss by trading out and now back to breakeven (almost). What makes you think sales are going to be sluggish anyway AND why would they be after this latest endorsement??.......have faith young Moose......this "should" be a steady ride north, but naturally no guarantees. Ive traded for years but find it stressful most of the time (shall I sell, shall I buy..??)....always looking for the beginnings of a steady improver to avoid the pitfalls of trading.........I believe PEB may just be that stock (now). Dont get caught without it mate........JUST MY OPINION.

[Minerbarejet]

Heres hoping it pays a dividend:)

[winner69]

Must have bought too many the other day, note it has taken them to 4.996%, just under.

Just needs to disclose the sale that took them under 5% ..... may have sold all the rest for all mw know (no disclosure needed)

Doubt it though .... but we will never know because if the go over 5% again it is only a 'becoming a SS)

[Minerbarejet]

An amazing dividend will await the current shareholder if PEB make it too the end of the race me thinks at least 10 to 1 maybe 20 to 1.
This is going to be a long race - many years - maybe they can payout every now and then for having got so far.:)

[Minerbarejet]

Being a bit slow on the uptake another thing has occurred to me regarding today's announcement regarding first sales. Its not like going to the dairy and getting a loaf of bread and maybe going back later to get another one in six months. They have bought it, they have used it, are presumably happy with it, and will continue to use it, recommend it to their colleagues,etc, until something better comes along, (if that's possible). To my mind this indicates that every initial sale to a group or individual clinician will lock in 5 years of growth in clientele with hopefully the majority saved from a dreadful demise, ( my father died of it) and continuing to be tested.
Wow, what a saga, what a road we will go down with this company, somebody will write a book about this one day - just hope I'm here to read it

[Minerbarejet]

Sorry, too much going on, clearing done.

[QOH]

NZ Herald today
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11142562

[nextbigthing]

Refer http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=429730&viewfull=1#post429730

What has changed since then?

1) They have confirmed U.S. sales

2) Their product seems to be gaining traction with the industry

3) The risk of being blocked by major pharmaceutical companies appears to have diminished somewhat

4) The risk of running out of cash before this all took off appears to have evaporated seeing as they are expecting a profit next year!

5) Publicity is starting to ramp up with recent awards etc. And with users starting to benefit from the product I think the publicity will only grow.

When pricing companies shareprice, the market is supposedly forward thinking. My conservative future valuation was $1.50. Many on this thread have the plausible theory that institutions wanted to see meaningful sales before buying. But I would suggest that by this time it will be too late to make the big gains.

Bear in mind this research was based upon CX Bladder only! They have other products along a similar line already under development!!!

I would suggest at $0.72 PEB is still a steal.

DYOR! But that's my 72 cents worth.

NBT

[nextbigthing]

I have a small business that deals with a multi national distribution company, the supplier we deal with offers us a substancial discount(40%) if we are loyal to them over a wide range of products.
In our supply agreement it clearly state's that if we were to compromise this arrangement we would lose the discount.
By compromise they mean stock/use another competing product/supplier.

I am no PEB or insurance company but you can bet your house that the big players have similar agreements.
I do believe this is why other option to cx bladder have not gained traction in the past.
Recently a new product has come along in my business industry that IS A GREAT PRODUCT and we would like to stock it. A different supplier is offering the product so we have approach our current supplier to see what can be done.
Thier initial reply was can you wait 6 months because we have a similar product about to be launch.
So we waited no product came out so we approached them again and they said if we stocked the other product we would lose the 40% discount on all thier products (they do have great products). We do not wont to lose the 40% discount.

This is the way big multi national companies bully you into playing thier game.

So unforetunately when our clients mention they have heard of this great new product my staff have been told too talk it down.


Do we have any medical professionals out there who could advise if this is also likely to be the case in the US medical industry?

I'm sure this would happen with likes of a more generic product like panadol etc etc, but surely for a more advance product they would find it harder to block.

Snapiti, I would hope that with peoples health/lives at risk, it might be a bit harder for them to block it in this manner. Especially if insurance companies can see a better product at a cheaper price, then I would imagine they would demand its use.

NBT

[psychic]

Thanks for sharing excellent research/ summary NBT. It is a bewildering market that seems to be capable of ignoring the obvious here. Just wait and enjoy the ride I guess, cannot see why it should not all happen now.

[GR8DAY]

NBT.....I think you'll find some sort of common-sense will prevail in the end anyway. "People-Power" driven by the masses will force their hand (to run with the better and cheaper alternative, Cx Bladder). What do we all do these days when faced with a medical situation?......first call, jump on-line. The info is all there for us now and we go to our GPs well informed of the choices. I somehow doubt all American GPs are painted with the same brush (purely dollar driven) and there will many many doctors (if not most) who genuinely seek out the best treatments for their clients regardless of pseudo loyalties. As far as costs go, well what a great starting point to be able to offer a proven alternative at about 1/3 cost.......Insurance co's are just going to love that.......that's only going to translate to bigger profits/margins for them. I think we can rest assured this is going to be a huge success story for PEB and agree 72c is now looking like a "gift''. I would not be at all surprised to see the SP double in under 12 mnths.

[Merc]

Many thanks to the posters on this forum, it has been a great aid with the learning curve on the share market. Having dipped a toe into the arena a few months ago I have checked back on this post at random intervals. Thursday afternoon I dropped in, caught the news and promptly bought some more shares in PEB at 68c. It may jump up and down a bit in the short-term but it will be very interesting to see what the share price is a year from now. :)

[robbo24]

I really think - regardless of insurer, supplier or GP bias - that patients with a camera inserted up their relevant body parts will provide the requisite push for CXBladder.

[MAC]

I’d previously allowed for PEB to break even in HY15, and thus this guidance today in the NZ Herald, although unexpected, is good news. Not only does it demonstrate management confidence but reaffirms again progress on the five year curve toward US $100M.

On this basis I’ve rerun my models and have increased the FY14 valuation I made back in May from $1.25 to $1.40. I’m holding my FY16 valuation at $5.00 for now.

Interestingly, looking at the sensitivities on the prospective HY14 result, I don’t believe a slightly low or high result will have a great deal of bearing on the fundamental valuation. The prospective forward free cash flows ramp so quickly that this next report is of not great importance numerically.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11142562 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11142562)

[nextbigthing]

I totally agree.
This forum has a wealth of knowledge on it and as soon as I discovered that PEB was in direct talks with the insurance companies I new that it was on the right track and bought many shares at 52 cps.
I cant get my head around why anyone is selling.
The company continues to move forward ,as planned, and if the company continue's on the right path we will all be sitting on a 10 bagger.
All I was trying to say in my last post is big suppliers play hard ball and for that reason do not lose faith in this business if sales are slower to get traction than you exspected.

I have no doubt that the great product will win out.


Disc hold and thinking about topping up at these levels.

Yes totally agree with this too Snapiti.

As for why anyone is selling, I agree, they're crazy. As Moosie says, there's probably a lot of traders trading out and taking big gains, however IMHO they're only halfway there, if that! Their loss is our gain however.

Will be interesting to see if the Herald article attracts much wider attention. Hopefully not as I still want to top up more over the next while!

[blakecb]

Yes totally agree with this too Snapiti.

As for why anyone is selling, I agree, they're crazy. As Moosie says, there's probably a lot of traders trading out and taking big gains, however IMHO they're only halfway there, if that! Their loss is our gain however.

Will be interesting to see if the Herald article attracts much wider attention. Hopefully not as I still want to top up more over the next while!

I would consider myself more of a 'trader' but couldn't bring myself to sell on Friday, despite the 30% gain. I was really impressed with how well the price held up despite the number of traders/investors booking some profit. There is some serious resistance at 75cps, but if this is broken, well it's all blue sky from there. It needs some really strong buying volume to 'push through' the resistance. I will be watching with interest next week.

[CJ]

I have a small business that deals with a multi national distribution company.thats your problem there. That's why the deal with that large US org is good - they are big enough not to be influenced

Likewise Pharmacy in NZ doesn't face the issues you have due to its buying power. They may have to discount a bit to land the big boys but that will be based on volume, so not a major issue and I am sure that is factored in by Management - they seem to know what they are doing.

Disc: looking for spare cash to accumulate on my small holding.

[CJ]

First profit in 2014? Are they pushing hard enough - Rod Drury wouldn't even consider earning a profit if he was in charge!

Let's get that second and third product into testing and approvals!

[Bobcat.]

As for why anyone is selling, I agree, they're crazy.

I'm trading off fundamentals but also off technicals, and have observed that not only was Friday's low of 67c lower than Thursday's low of 68c, but also that historically (twice this year) there has been confirmed resistance at 75c.

Last Friday, I sold some of my parcel sitting at 74 when someone/something bought 100k. I have since put a bid in at 68c. This way I take profit after a three day rise, and if I can pick up another parcel at 68c on Monday, I've caught the next wave.

That's my plan, but of course like surfin', one doesn't always catch the very next wave. No matter, I'm a patient surfer...and it sure beats standing knee-deep by the shore watching the waves coming in and out like a spectator.

BC

[The Grinch]

Hi all,

In the event some of us forum readers haven't been on the US bladder cancer forum to read the latest musings about CX here is the link; http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladder-cancer-advocacy-network/discussion/cxbladder-better-than-cytoscopy-how-is-this-not-main-stream-already/?page=1#replies

In my opinion, very good feedback... the poster that assumes CXbladder costs more than cytoscopy but would still rather use it gave me a chuckle. I also think it shows just how proactive patients can be on following and pushing these things with their doctors. Maybe I should top up :eek2:

[Nigel]

Hi all,

In the event some of us forum readers haven't been on the US bladder cancer forum to read the latest musings about CX here is the link; http://www.inspire.com/groups/bladder-cancer-advocacy-network/discussion/cxbladder-better-than-cytoscopy-how-is-this-not-main-stream-already/?page=1#replies

In my opinion, very good feedback... the poster that assumes CXbladder costs more than cytoscopy but would still rather use it gave me a chuckle. I also think it shows just how proactive patients can be on following and pushing these things with their doctors. Maybe I should top up :eek2:

Thanks for the link - I've just had a read. cxBladder is going to make such a difference in the lives of many many people. Kind of fulfilling knowing that our investment is supporting such an awesome product.

[Nigel]

Here's a nice collection of recent media appearances for Pacific Edge.
FedMed signing, Commercial sales milestones, Innovation awards... yeah, pretty good week.

http://www.watchinga.com/pages/cxbladder.html#_

[Wolf]

Anyone got any idea's on what's going to happen next week?
Although the announcement on friday had no solid numbers i think there should have been a better reaction which i think was quashed a little bit by end of week profit taking etc, so am hoping their is a catch up rise on monday. Which is why i decided not to sell on Friday afternoon. Although then again the announcement could have been an attempt to keep the share price rising?

[Minerbarejet]

Think that maybe the whole lot got swallowed by Drury and Xero carryon.
Look to the future but always look behind as well, there may be something better coming.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I'm still musing over David Darling's comment in the ODT:


Overseas investor interest has been picking up. It's a different quantum of money over here and really could throw up all sorts of options for us

I'm thinking either:
- They could be looking at getting a significant cash injection from the US to really ramp up the sales force for CxBladder even more and fast track the development and commercialisation of the further CxBladder tests and CxColorectal. Not necessarily a bad idea - maybe Mr Darling has been talking to Rod? :p
- There could be interest in an acquisition of PEB.
- Maybe I'm over-thinking it?

[blakecb]

I'm still musing over David Darling's comment in the ODT:

I'm thinking either:
- They could be looking at getting a significant cash injection from the US to really ramp up the sales force for CxBladder even more and fast track the development and commercialisation of the further CxBladder tests and CxColorectal. Not necessarily a bad idea - maybe Mr Darling has been talking to Rod? :p
- There could be interest in an acquisition of PEB.
- Maybe I'm over-thinking it?

Yeah it makes you think doesn't it.... my first thought, already posted, was that he could do a XRO and gather up some USD to speed things up over there. The kind of money that could be available in the US might mean they can fast forward the 5 years plan somewhat. As others have previously said, I would be surprised if after all these years and the commitment to the product that Darling would accept a takeover bid so close to crossing the finish line. So option 1 is where I'd put my money.

[psychic]

Thanks Hancocks, always great to see you post. Congrats on your well deserved success with PEB. You took the time to understand it, have stuck to your convictions and have helped many of us along the way. Cheers

[garfy]

Thank you Hancocks for your most informative posts. I support you totally. I am very pleased to have an investment in a company that is not only set up to make money, but has a very powerful humanitarian base, and as such my major shareholding is in for the long haul. Yes, the 'feel good' factor..... But I have no doubt that ultimately this company has every prospect of succeeding, and even outlasting any IT company.
Producing a 'product' that is more accurate than its 'rivals', and at a very much lower cost, with a built in 'comfort factor'..... hard to ignore!

[Minerbarejet]

We await the sudden infux of ex xero traders finding something to their liking that has a good chance of emulating what has gone on before and exceeding it. Xero to 54..00 PEB to 1.44 -no contest

[sideburns66]

Anyone been looking at the charts or have any predictions on what sort of price action we might see tomorrow - am wanting to top up my modest holding and wondering whether I sit tight and be patient or "get on the train at whatever cost" ? Have done my own FA and am definitely in for the long haul on this one, would just prefer to time an entry point if possible

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Anyone been looking at the charts or have any predictions on what sort of price action we might see tomorrow - am wanting to top up my modest holding and wondering whether I sit tight and be patient or "get on the train at whatever cost" ? Have done my own FA and am definitely in for the long haul on this one, would just prefer to time an entry point if possible

Too tough to call. The market is wanting to push this one higher, however there is at least two large sellers around (one of which being ACC I believe) and also the traders booking profits. There may be a few days of hovering around 68 or so where they sell off the amount they want. It may also just go on another charge up. My sell signals which are usually pretty reliable (but not always of course) for a sudden rise like this are still a fair distance from being triggered, although that can all change pretty quick. Your best bet is to just get a gauge of the market tomorrow and see what direction it's going.

Disc: PEB is my largest long term holding.

[Nigel]

I don't see why the rise won't continue this week. Long term, the only direction is up. There will be some fluctuation along the way - like you say, as the likes of ACC take their profits - but I think the trend will be heading northward. I was buying in the 50s and 60s, bought some more at 71 as I really like the long term prospects of this company.

There has been some really good press about PEB in the past few days, so my pick is that all the attention will encourage some more investors to jump in, and support a further rise tomorrow.

[Wolf]

Bit early to tell but some nice depth. Lots of buyers lining up. Looks like another good day :)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Bit early to tell but some nice depth. Lots of buyers lining up. Looks like another good day :)

Yup, looks like we will be having another crack at 74. Lets see if it can be broken this time.

Edit: looks like big insto buyers are very keen. Standing at the reading for the break I am!

[Nigel]

Yup, looks like we will be having another crack at 74. Lets see if it can be broken this time.

Edit: looks like big insto buyers are very keen. Standing at the reading for the break I am!

There goes 75 :)

[zymwh]

What.! 75c now...I have to modify my buy order again

[Nigel]

And 200000 support at 74. Still looking very strong.

[robbo24]

I did a wee re-balance of my portfolios on Friday afternoon including selling down my PEB holding - bought back into PEB at 73 this morn. Keen to see how things play out. MACD away.

[Wolf]

Next 2 bands look like 78 and 80c

[clip]

ASB Securities running very slooooowww today... wonder if PEB is contributing to the hammering it must be taking currently heh

[JohnnyTheHorse]

This is very much being controlled by the big boys right now I'd say. There are large buyers and large sellers both trying to get the best price.

[robbo24]

happy :)

78c trade went through, 1c off the high...

[Wolf]

You mean no regrets right moosie? From memory Didn't you exit just before announcements on friday at 70c? I was so close too doing it as well.

[NZSilver]

You should have just bought and held - let winners run!

[Wolf]

Mind sharing what this other stock is ?

[zymwh]

Try harder I want to buy more lol

[psychic]

I reckon there are just too many profit focused traders for now. A little more research by the masses and this will look cheap.

[MAC]

Sure, but announcing the first sale of the commercial sector is no reason for the SP to jump 40%. I'll say it for the last time: TOO MUCH IS PRICED IN RIGHT NOW.

I refer you to the cycles of investing as put up on the DIL thread. I think we're seeing a point on that map that begins with "E"...

I couldn’t disagree more.

Growth stocks are typically undervalued between capital raising and commercialisation, this is due to the market conservatively and appropriately making an allowance for risk. As time goes by the company incrementally sheds risk and the SP will rise toward fundamental de-risked valuations.

PEB has shed an enormous amount of risk in the last six months and what we are seeing is a step response in the share price as traders had capped the SP at 0.61c for all of that time.

At 0.78c PEB is still well undervalued, provided PEB remain on track against their US$100M target, this is just the beginning of a multi year trend.

[MAC]

That's a big provided with a report weeks away...

Not at all.

As you and I and the market are aware, we should not expect more than a handful of US sales at HY14, as there was only a three month sales contribution from 1st July through to the end of the reporting period at September's end, and we all know sales staff were in training, learning about the technology and making new industry relationships.

I would be really impressed, as I've said before, with 200 US sales, in this period.

It's the forward growth that is important from this point. I was very pleased with David Darlings comments over the weekend stating that PEB should achieve profitability in 2014, his previous advice at the time of the AGM was 2015.

This led me to update my models, I now value PEB at FY14 $1.40 up from $1.25 as I had in May.

[blakecb]

And you're not afraid the market is pricing in way too much value with that amount...?

I agree, PEB could easily hit those highs as stated, but we need proof!

I must admit, I see the moose as the contrarion investor on here... a week ago suggesting a SP of 40cps. No offence intended moosie.

I am really happy with where things are at although will be watching the SP carefully this week. Somehow PEB has ended up as my biggest investment. I am definitely not interested in selling at present. The SP will move around a bit this week as the instos try to value it.

[Xerof]

Sounds like moose shooting season is open.....

[robbo24]

Geez the PEB thread doesn't stay happy for long does it - come on guys, enjoy the volatility :)

[zymwh]

A young trader ..day in and day out... can take profit on just one cent...nothing wrong but his words can only been used as a tool not advice

[gv1]

Either he is genuine or using scare tactics to indulge himself to the profit.
Anyway, enough of him, I think few weeks time there might be flow of big overseas funds in this one.

[CJ]

I'm just not sure though how you can be so sure the current price is overvalued without quantifying the probability PEB will succeed in the US? Surely that is what is being priced in at the moment.....To determine if overvalued, you need to work out its future value if successful and discount back based on the risk of success (or do multi scenario valuations). The new contract last week removed part of that risk but not all of it.

No different to XRO.

[Bobcat.]

It is easy to quantify PEB for value, if it succeeds 70cps is a bargain and if it fails 70cps is exspensive

I have an alternative view - if it hits my bid at 68c, it's a bargin.

[tunsbro]

I've been watching PEB from the sidelines for nearly a year now (since the last spike in Dec), clearly the right time to get in was last week, unfortunately for me, but the long game has some big numbers attached to it if everything goes their way. We've still not hit the 52 week high of .79 on this run, anyone think it'll hit that before pullback or pullback before breaching?

[Dentie]

No regrets NZSilver. I locked in profits and got out to make even more on another stock. I took the majority of the run and left, what's wrong with that? One thing I have learnt (and a VERY good lesson!) is not to get greedy! PEB has to start showing great sales at this price; if not, expect a fall (and me to buy back). The SP can't run on announcements forever, it needs runs on the board, and solid ones at that

Why doesn't this advice apply to XRO?

[andysh]

Got dropbox or similar? Can usually upload and then leave a public link.

[clip]

Got dropbox or similar? Can usually upload and then leave a public link.

https://mega.co.nz/
People can hate on Kim all you want but he does make things easy, heh. Once you've uploaded the file it will give you a link to share.

[Xerof]

I've been watching PEB from the sidelines for nearly a year now (since the last spike in Dec), clearly the right time to get in was last week, unfortunately for me, but the long game has some big numbers attached to it if everything goes their way. We've still not hit the 52 week high of .79 on this run, anyone think it'll hit that before pullback or pullback before breaching?

IMO, today is already shaping into a minor pullback. How far I don't know, but a close below the open, leaves us with a possible pin-bar set-up. Having said that, we still have an hour until the close, so anything might happen between now and then. You have been VERY patient, and a few cents here or there won't matter in the long run, so maybe wait and see what tomorrows PA brings. If it slides further, then about 50% down that big upthrust candle late last week should provide a good entry, else, just buy on the close tomorrow. DYOR, this is my view on very short term price action, not advice. I hold for long term, and am waiting for a trading account re-entry, having sold late morning today.

[blakecb]

Just a little humble pie in my moose-shooting routine, and in the interests of full disclosure....I decided to take some profits today from the nice run PEB has had. I still own some PEB so have skin in the game, but am worried about the fierce resistance at 75cps. I will probably buy more again if it can close above that. I think some insto(s) has decided the company's present value is $200mil and until the insto is sold out, or something changes, they will keep the price at that level... in my humble opinion only.

[Minerbarejet]

ASX:CDY has an annual report out with substantial references to PEB.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Agree with you Xerof. However there are some very large buyers around that are playing it slowly and trying to not act too eager to ensure the price stays a bit lower. Like I said earlier on today, I think where this one goes in the short term is going to be determined by the big boys, so the charts may not be the best measure.

[BigBob]

Just a little humble pie in my moose-shooting routine, and in the interests of full disclosure....I decided to take some profits today from the nice run PEB has had. I still own some PEB so have skin in the game, but am worried about the fierce resistance at 75cps. I will probably buy more again if it can close above that. I think some insto(s) has decided the company's present value is $200mil and until the insto is sold out, or something changes, they will keep the price at that level... in my humble opinion only.

Another way to look at it is that the burst up through 68/70 last week took out the resistance from back in May, and that we are now establishing a base at that support level. A close below 68 would be an indicator that this level has failed, but before that happens it may be worthwhile leaving your money on the table....

[pierre]

Extracted from the ASX:CDY annual report released today:

"Commencement of sales in July triggered the issue of over 1m Pacific Edge shares with the value of over $600,000 at the time. Royalties on revenues are expected to paid to Cellmid semi-annually.

On the basis of sales projections released by Pacific Edge Cellmid is expected to receive regular royalties from this licence from late 2014"

[MAC]

David Darling NZ Herald Saturday 19th October advises “was expecting to report its first profit in 2014”

Profit: The return received on a business undertaking after all operating expenses have been met.

Pacific Edge Limited reported an operating loss of $6.9M and will have full PEDUSA operation and necessary staff expansion to account for.

Looking to 2014 this could conservatively see operating costs for the parent company be $12M? At $450 that’s 26,000 tests, so we now need a profit on top of that, bearing in mind we would be ~40% of the way to the magical $100M – what’s the figure?

Hancocks, my understanding was that the US price point, from DD at the AGM, was USD550, has there been further advice, or are you allowing for some sort of contracted discount for the larger FedMed type negotiated agreements ?

[tunsbro]

IMO, today is already shaping into a minor pullback. How far I don't know, but a close below the open, leaves us with a possible pin-bar set-up. Having said that, we still have an hour until the close, so anything might happen between now and then. You have been VERY patient, and a few cents here or there won't matter in the long run, so maybe wait and see what tomorrows PA brings. If it slides further, then about 50% down that big upthrust candle late last week should provide a good entry, else, just buy on the close tomorrow. DYOR, this is my view on very short term price action, not advice. I hold for long term, and am waiting for a trading account re-entry, having sold late morning today.

Thanks for the reply, Xerof.
My TA is not a strongpoint so appreciate your input.
Higher lows since last week's up spike. .65 being the lowest. Looks like, in the short term at least, that could be a support? Drawing a trend from there we cross above 70 today. But not sure that would hold in a retrace. Stops close by would no doubt trigger and send it lower. Concur?

[MAC]

Oh yeah, it does look promising, also with first profits projected to come forward, I liked David's comments also suggesting some surprise that they had signed up FedMed so soon after achieving CLIA accreditation.

I don't see anything at present to support the concerns of one or two on the thread that the commercialisation plan is not on schedule. I’m seeing it as on track, maybe even a slightly ahead.

Each to our own perceptions, but I'd prefer the bears at least attempted to show some evidence to support their claims if they are going to make such comments, else their comments just seem like an attempt to scare the kids

[Minerbarejet]

:)Please make sure that all socks are properly labelled with nametags so we can return them to respective owners when they get blown off in the near future.
Imho
:)

[Dentie]

:)Please make sure that all socks are properly labelled with nametags so we can return them to respective owners when they get blown off in the near future.
Imho
:)

Nice analogy Miner... certainly seems like they are humming along very well.

[psychic]

These test projections are for each calendar year right? ie. not financial (ending March) ? Thanks

[MAC]

Is this how it works? This is using Pacific Edge's financial models and their recent statements.

Yeah, the market share table from the 2011 cap raising doc set.

I've also used this as a revenue curve to the US$100M target, but I allowed for a one quarter shift as US sales started in Q2 2014.

Until recently I had thought that the front end of this table as a curve looked a little steep, but as you say Hancock's, now that PEB anticipate earlier profitability, it does seem a fair expectation.

[janner]

:)Please make sure that all socks are properly labelled with nametags so we can return them to respective owners when they get blown off in the near future.
Imho
:)

Forget the socks MBJ.. Make sure you have a change of knickers.. Your not related to moosie are you ??

[psychic]

So our conservatively run little Company with it's patented/ proven/ end-user desirable/ cost effective/ repeat order test kit and approved facilities starts trading earlier than forecast with significant supply arrangements already in place. It has other products in the wings, and established partnerships in Europe and Aus and its budget is for what seems like an extremely conservative 10% of the market (US only) by 2016?
And it expects a gross margin of 80% with a big jump lead time wise for its competitors.
Can someone please explain the downside to this stock and current market price?

[janner]

The can that is repeatedly being kicked down the road.. The oft forecasted depression to beat all depressions.

Who knows psychic.. .. Maybe your the one with the insight :-))

[psychic]

And that's another plus Janner! Depression proof! :)

[Nigel]

So our conservatively run little Company with it's patented/ proven/ end-user desirable/ cost effective/ repeat order test kit and approved facilities starts trading earlier than forecast with significant supply arrangements already in place. It has other products in the wings, and established partnerships in Europe and Aus and its budget is for what seems like an extremely conservative 10% of the market (US only) by 2016?
And it expects a gross margin of 80% with a big jump lead time wise for its competitors.
Can someone please explain the downside to this stock and current market price?

Well said Psychic, well said.

[janner]

And that's another plus Janner! Depression proof! :)

We all put our trust in you then !!.. Pass the Tui !!.. :-))

[Minerbarejet]

Forget the socks MBJ.. Make sure you have a change of knickers.. Your not related to moosie are you ??
You are quite right - I'm not:)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Oh look, they have signed another deal...

[ddrone]

PEB


22/10/2013 10:34


GENERAL





REL: 1034 HRS Pacific Edge Limited





GENERAL: PEB: PE signs agreement with America's Choice Provider Network





22 October 2013





Pacific Edge signs agreement with America's Choice Provider Network to expand


access to Cxbladder in the US





Pacific Edge has signed an agreement with America's Choice Provider Network


(ACPN) to provide more Americans access to Cxbladder. ACPN offers a medical


network solution for more than 14 million Americans through its client base


consisting of insurance carriers, third party administrators, health and


welfare funds, employer groups and self-insured health plans. This follows


Pacific Edge's recent announcement of the agreement with FedMed providing 40


million Americans with access to Cxbladder1.





Pacific Edge Chief Executive Officer David Darling says agreements with


FedMed and now ACPN form key elements in the commercial roll-out of Cxbaldder


in the US.


Pacific Edge through its wholly owned subsidiary Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA


(PEDUSA) has already achieved the first commercial sales of Cxbladder in the


US2 and has processed samples collected using its proprietary Urine Sample


System at its custom built laboratory in Hershey, Pennsylvania.





"These provider networks provide patients access to healthcare services and


technology by contracting with providers and payers on a national basis.


These two recent agreements signed with FedMed and now ACPN will give


millions of Americans access to Cxbladder and its positive benefits as a


quick, cost effective, non-invasive and highly accurate cancer detection test


that is particularly appealing to US healthcare professionals, patients, and


insurers" said Jackie Walker, Chief Executive Officer of PEDUSA.





"PEDUSA's sales and marketing team is focussed on the clinicians who are


treating the largest number of bladder cancer patients. They are also


focussed on the large commercial payers and the Centre for Medicare and


Medicaid Services (CMS), which provides healthcare insurance for 100 million


people or nearly a third of the American population. Other key sales targets


include Integrated Healthcare Systems, comprising many providers and


facilities while offering a wide variety of health insurance plans, the


Veterans Administration (VA), and Large Urology Groups (LUGS), who are the


point of contact for many patients presenting with haematuria (blood in the


urine) which is an early indicator of possible bladder cancer".





More than one million Americans will undergo medical investigation this year


for potential bladder cancer at an estimated cost of $US1 billion. Bladder


cancer is one of the most expensive cancers to treat. The very high


recurrence of this disease, requiring some patients to receive expensive


monitoring for the rest of their lives, causes bladder cancer to have the


highest total medical costs of any cancer from detection to death. In the US,


the total medical cost approaches $US220,000 per patient.





1


http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news-and-media/news/pacific-edge-agreement-with-


national-provider-network-fedmed-gives-40-million-americans-access-to-cxbladd


er/





2


http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-and-media/news/first-commercial-sales-achie


ved-for-pacific-edges-cxbladder-in-the-usa/





For more information contact:





David Darling


Chief Executive Officer


Pacific Edge Ltd


P: +64 (3) 479 5800





ABOUT PACIFIC EDGE





Pacific Edge Limited (NZX: PEB) is a New Zealand based cancer diagnostic


company specialising in the discovery and commercialisation of diagnostic and


prognostic technology for the early detection and monitoring of cancer.





Products in development and in clinical trials are accurate and simple to use


genomic and proteomic tools for the earlier detection, improved


characterisation and better management of gastric, bladder, colorectal


cancers and melanoma. The company has recently completed and released its


first product for the detection of bladder cancer, Cxbladder, and is actively


marketing the product to urologists in New Zealand, Australia and soon to be


Spain and the US.





www.pacificedge.co.nz





ABOUT PACIFIC EDGE DIAGNOSTICS





Pacific Edge takes its exciting cancer detection tests to market through its


wholly owned subsidiaries, Pacific Edge Diagnostics NZ Ltd and Pacific Edge


Diagnostics USA Ltd, and selected commercial partners in Australia and Spain,


Healthscope and Oryzon respectively.





www.pacificedgedx.com





ABOUT Cxbladder





Cxbladder is a proprietary, accurate molecular diagnostic test that enables


the non-invasive detection of bladder cancer from a small volume of urine. It


provides general practitioners and urologists with a quick, cost effective


and accurate measure of the presence of the cancer, and provides urologists


with the opportunity to reduce their reliance on the need for invasive tests


such as cystoscopy. The recently published, Journal of Urology in September


2012, multi-centre international clinical study recruited 485 patients from


Australia and New Zealand.





Results show that Cxbladder out-performed all of the benchmark technologies


in the clinical trial and detected nearly all of the tumours of concern to a


urologist; At a performance of 82% sensitivity and 85% specificity the test


sees 100% of T1, 100% of T2, 100% of T3, 100% of Tis and 100% of upper


urinary tract cancers as well as greater than 95% of high grade tumours.





www.cxbladder.com


End CA:00242697 For:PEB Type:GENERAL Time:2013-10-22 10:34:35

[ddrone]

Anyone know why we're in a trading halt?

[Dentie]

Another nice piece of news ... coming fast now these are!!

[JimHickey]

Price sensitive announcement

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Anyone know why we're in a trading halt?

It's considered a price sensitive announcement, so they give 5-10 mins for people to alter their orders (I think that's why anyway). Should be out of it very soon.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Awesome! They are on fire!!

That they are! Can't see myself selling anytime soon, the risk of missing another announcement is too great. I believe we will see new highs today.

[goldfish]

What wrong with db? Cant get in on action in this;(

[Dentie]

So thankful I was able to do a good top up yesterday!!

[psychic]

They are also focussed on the large commercial payers and the Centre for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), which provides healthcare insurance for 100 million people or nearly a third of the American population. Other key sales targets include Integrated Healthcare Systems, comprising many providers and facilities while offering a wide variety of health insurance plans, the Veterans Administration (VA), and Large Urology Groups (LUGS), who are the point of contact for many patients presenting with haematuria (blood in the urine) which is an early indicator of possible bladder cancer”.

For a conservative Company like PEB to mention these key accounts in the same breath would imply to me that they are not far away from snowballing this

[JohnnyTheHorse]

This 75-78 cent range we are in right now is absolutely crucial from a technical perspective... If we can close above it I see much more upside.

[psychic]

get in moosie, not to late for this train

[Dentie]

With such agreements already signed ... who wouldn't be looking to sign now??

[JohnnyTheHorse]

80 cents going bye bye, new highs will be set today.

Unbelievable. I am eating humble-pie... ;)

I am sure it'll be a very expensive humble pie though, after your trades with PEB and XRO last week. Can't complain with that ;)

[False Profit]

Onwards to the naughty 90c next week? When is it going to be dangerous to buy in for short term trades?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

There we go folks - a new all time high of 80 cents!

[Dentie]

There we go folks - a new all time high of 80 cents!

Well done to all at PEB - great work!! All this excitement makes it very hard to concentrate on work. Mind you, if this keeps up - who cares!

[zymwh]

Then when you panic at 90 cent they give you another big announcement lol

[Toasty]

Between XRO, PEB and hopefully SUM the last couple of weeks have been a total writeoff at work. I initially felt bad about taking some XRO wins but it may have found a good home in PEB.

The best thing is that I actually bought more than I anticipated as I put two orders in by accident.

[Xerof]

Pin bar setup blown away, in at 78

rollin' rollin' rollin'

[nextbigthing]

This is great news. Even if the next sales announcement is a flop it shouldn't matter too much IMHO as they have now really started cementing their future sales. Surely this has hugely derisked. Institutions anyone?

Disc; holding tight!

[robbo24]

Heheehehehehee

[winner69]

Going up faster than the POG is it

[Dentie]

I don't think I have seen such lopsided depth in PEB in the years I have been holding...

[QOH]

Moosie please tell us those PEB shares you bought for 69 cents and sold for70cents you aren't buying back today for 80 cents.

[goldfish]

Got some yesterday after trading last week, got some more before at 77. Dont think ill trade these will be a long term hold, was waiting till sales numbers came before going for long term hold, but by then i think itll be to late. Is it just me or is this one hell of a rush, like trading xro last week, what a rush.

[zymwh]

I see someone bought 250k at 80c. Is it institution?

[goldfish]

I see someone bought 250k at 80c. Is it institution?
Wish it was me.

[Dentie]

I don't think I have seen such lopsided depth in PEB in the years I have been holding...

...in fact, the way this is smokin'... liquidity might become an issue due to lack of supply. having trouble keeping up!

Smashed through the trend line back as far as 2004! Absolute blue sky now...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Some insto's definitely buying up.

[Minerbarejet]

Has anyone seen my socks?:)

[Toasty]

Got some yesterday after trading last week, got some more before at 77. Dont think ill trade these will be a long term hold, was waiting till sales numbers came before going for long term hold, but by then i think itll be to late. Is it just me or is this one hell of a rush, like trading xro last week, what a rush.

Its not just you. Its definitely a rush. I've been watching and reading for a long time and finally took the plunge at 63. Happy happy.

[robbo24]

Some insto's definitely buying up.

I bet Hancock and Sparky are dancing merry irish jigs around their respective mansions right now

[robbo24]

Meanwhile, in Clownville:

4930

Where is this on Xerof's flow chart?

[psychic]

Nice to hear from you STC

[winner69]

Moosie please tell us those PEB shares you bought for 69 cents and sold for70cents you aren't buying back today for 80 cents.

A trader has no regrets .... that was a winning trade (hope moose has good rates from his broker) and that is all that matters

A lot of water has gone under the bridge (or zillions made) since then

Today is another day for a trader ... what PEB was last week is irrelevant

[Xerof]

Where is this on Xerof's flow chart?

for us newbies just recently into this, HOPE turning into RELIEF maybe?

for the seed capitalists, no emoticon can describe it, they will only see this as ratification of their faith, and just another step on the long road to success, which is getting to look more like an autobahn, than a country lane

[robbo24]

Today is another day for a trader ... what PEB was last week is irrelevant

Another good day for a trader

[robbo24]

for us newbies just recently into this, HOPE turning into RELIEF maybe?

for the seed capitalists, no emoticon can describe it, they will only see this as ratification of their faith, and just another step on the long road to success

Modify your chart to have an offshoot, entitled "GETTIN' SMASHED WITH DA CLOWNZ"

[Minerbarejet]

Nice to hear from you STC yeah good to know you are watching STC
Having fun by the looks. Major now miner

[baller18]

A million smiles from me!!!

[QOH]

PEB got a mention on TV One lunchtime news

[tunsbro]

Getting pretty lonely on the sidelines. My timing is impeccable, yet again. My order of .70 is languishing in the distance. Raised it to .80, what's the weather like up there?
Don't worry, if it gets hit the stock will come crashing down so everyone else can buy cheaper. Such is my luck ;)

[blobbles]

Can us long term positive investors say "We told you so" yet? :-P

[tunsbro]

So it got to 85 today right? How many shares traded at 85?
Cheers.
Looks like it's about to hit .85 again.

Just noticed my order is below a wall of 240k. If that's genuine, will create some support today.

Edit: just hit.

[Dentie]

So it got to 85 today right? How many shares traded at 85?
Cheers.

It's back there again!

A decent amount T

ooops too slow!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Just wondering because it looks like we are going on another little run, wondering if we see 90 today??

Certainly possible. 85 was the max during the first hour of trading after the gap up from the announcement. If it breaks through that it's another short term buy signal.

[karen1]

Meanwhile, in Clownville:

4930

Nice to see you, happy clown!

[karen1]

for us newbies just recently into this, HOPE turning into RELIEF maybe?

for the seed capitalists, no emoticon can describe it, they will only see this as ratification of their faith, and just another step on the long road to success, which is getting to look more like an autobahn, than a country lane


Not hope, BELIEF, not relief, SATISFACTION!

[Xerof]

Nice to see you, happy clown!

yes, greetings STC,

You seem to be missing some of these at your party.... one for each of PEB, DIL and RYM

[karen1]

So it got to 85 today right? How many shares traded at 85?
Cheers.

Looks like 115,877.
By 12.29 pm (StocknessMonster) volume was 1,934,447

[tunsbro]

Ok, I've watched this go past my orders enough in the past week. Bit the bullet after watching .85 getting chewed into steadily - seems to be being replaced as steadily, but for how long? Not here to f#$% spiders, so I've put my toe in at the high of the day. Uncomfortable as that is.
Now it seems the wall of 240k at .82 has been removed. Just my luck.

[tunsbro]

Ha. .84 now. Classic.

I'll just stick with my knitting.

[Toasty]

Ha. .84 now. Classic.

I'll just stick with my knitting.

Hang in there. You are not alone. I don't know how many times that has happened to me.

[robbo24]

Do other people expect a few profit takers later today as well?

[GR8DAY]

Ha. .84 now. Classic.

I'll just stick with my knitting.


.....DONT DO A MOOSIE (nervous nelly) mate........PEB now has the potential to easy race thru the $1 mark. The ones who shud stick to their knitting are clearly the short term tradres who have no experience in recognizing a sure growth stock (blinded by short term profits).......AND the ones who will be making the serious profits here will without doubt be the HOLDERS.......$1, $1.20. $1.50, $2.00 $3.00 $5.00 etc etc............sit back , relax and watch this thing grow, this is just the beginning.

[GR8DAY]

Ha. .84 now. Classic.

I'll just stick with my knitting.


.....DONT DO A MOOSIE (nervous nelly) mate........PEB now has the potential to easy race thru the $1 mark. The ones who shud stick to their knitting are clearly the short term tradres who have no experience in recognizing a sure growth stock (blinded by short term profits).......AND the ones who will be making the serious profits here will without doubt be the HOLDERS.......$1, $1.20. $1.50, $2.00 $3.00 $5.00 etc etc............sit back , relax and watch this thing grow, this is just the beginning.

[stef]

.....DONT DO A MOOSIE (nervous nelly) mate........PEB now has the potential to easy race thru the $1 mark. The ones who shud stick to their knitting are clearly the short term tradres who have no experience in recognizing a sure growth stock (blinded by short term profits).......AND the ones who will be making the serious profits here will without doubt be the HOLDERS.......$1, $1.20. $1.50, $2.00 $3.00 $5.00 etc etc............sit back , relax and watch this thing grow, this is just the beginning.


I am a believer, but need short term sellers to sell to the long term buyers

[GR8DAY]

..........buy 69, sell 70??..........your'e onto it Moose!! ( or was it the other way around)??........I do understand mate, Ive done it myself at times..LOL

[gv1]

.....DONT DO A MOOSIE (nervous nelly) mate........PEB now has the potential to easy race thru the $1 mark. The ones who shud stick to their knitting are clearly the short term tradres who have no experience in recognizing a sure growth stock (blinded by short term profits).......AND the ones who will be making the serious profits here will without doubt be the HOLDERS.......$1, $1.20. $1.50, $2.00 $3.00 $5.00 etc etc............sit back , relax and watch this thing grow, this is just the beginning.

yeap, got in at 85, steady climb from here.

[GR8DAY]

.......your'e getting better mate.........before you know it you'll be buying, holding, relaxing and then going fishing!!

[psychic]

Buy at 57, Sell at 72, Buy at 69, sell at 70 and finally buy at 77 and sell at 84 today ;)

Sounds like hard work Moosie. you could have just bought and held, saved a lot on brokerage and dodged the tax liability - and played golf instead...:)

[psychic]

ha - gr8 minds...

[tunsbro]

ha - gr8 minds...
You are psychic.

Don't worry fellas. I'm not looking to exit. Have my stop set and will let it ride. Will look to add more on dips, if they come. Maybe Moosie could advise us when they're likely?

[psychic]

Get more golf for your money with a good slice Moosie. :)
Anyways, pleased you are doing well. Cheers

[baller18]

When are all the sellers at 85 cents going to stop selling? So we can send this rocket even higher! :D

[robbo24]

Who do I pay for live charts that cover PEB/NZX?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

When are all the sellers at 85 cents going to stop selling? So we can send this rocket even higher! :D

Still several very big fish wanting shares, they will be trying not to act too eager. Could see some big off market trades after closing today. The 75-78 range has now turned into a very strong support area.

[robbo24]

At what point does PEB make the NZX50 and therefore start to be included in the various index funds??
was taking a quick look at the following thread but obviously its a bit out of date:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9112-NZX50-constituent-companies-as-at-close-on-25th-March-2013

It's between:



SUM
94,993,365
94,993,365
n/a
94,993,365
n/a
n/a

214,819,360
94,993,365
0.24561%
94,993,365
$ 2.56
$ 243,183,014
47


STU
88,427,240
88,427,240
n/a
88,427,240
n/a
n/a

88,427,240
88,427,240
0.13943%
88,427,240
$ 2.62
$ 231,679,369
48

[JohnnyTheHorse]

They need to have a market cap greater than the company in the 45th position to be eligible for it. The market cap is also taken as the 6-month average closing price I do believe.

[robbo24]

Just remember what SparkyTheClown said was his #1 rule: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9324-Farewell-from-the-clown


1. Booms are fueled by the fear of missing out. Euphoria is justifying excessive share prices. Smart money sells when greed and euphoria mix.

[Balance]

Cheers and PEB = $238,161,316 (@85)

Institutions and fund managers who are not in PEB will now be scrambling for stock - they cannot afford to miss another Xero or Diligent type performance.

Add on a few US funds and I am going to call PEB $1 by month end.

[Balance]

Extending a vote of thanks to Hancocks.

He has been informative, helpful and kept right on top of PEB and shared his views and assessments every step of the way with us all.

Cheers, matey.

[CJ]

They need to have a market cap greater than the company in the 45th position to be eligible for it. The market cap is also taken as the 6-month average closing price I do believe.Correct about the 45th place. Not sure about the 6 month average.

I think they need to be over $1 to get into the index. So start buying!

[Balance]

Biggest risk to PEB now is a takeover offer from one of the big boys.

Think of the billions of dollars they can make if they leverage PEB's Cxbladder and products to come via their extensive and comprehensive distribution and marketing network!

[gypsy]

I second Balance's comments and everyone else that has contributed in this forum. Thank you all.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Ding ding ding... there go the SHORT term buy signals with the break of the 1st hour trading range. No real sellers to buy from though, ah well.

[Radler]

90 and above doesn't look too far away now.
Exciting indeed!

[Minerbarejet]

We have lift off, Houston,

[enzed staffy]

Jeez it just keeps going...

[Nigel]

Jeez it just keeps going...

Didn't you know, PEB is the Proverbial Energizer Bunny.

[tosspot]

this is beautiful to watch. Finally got in on a run and not letting go

[Nigel]

What is it about the announcement though? Is it just that it is so close to the previous one; or, are watchers starting to believe that Pacific Edge Limited is really on to something? I never expected that reaction to 14M additional Americans.

I think it's the case that the potential for this stock is absolutely massive. Each new release confirms the story and PEB's potential to more people.

Each announcement makes it big success more likely, lowers the risk and gets people excited. The fact that this could run away at any time makes people want to jump on board now so they don't miss out.

At some point, the 'euphoria' will mean we're overvalued and the SP may take a breather while revenues catch up, but for now people are just wanting to get in on a company that is now turning heads, both in NZ and globally.

[Balance]

I was thinking $1 by month end. I think $1 by week's end?

Fund managers who are not in the stock must be pxssing in their pants as they are going to look like real donkeys for missing the action.

Those who did not buy any off Masfen at 65 cents must be wondering when Masfen may sell a few more?

[blobbles]

What is it about the announcement though? Is it just that it is so close to the previous one; or, are watchers starting to believe that Pacific Edge Limited is really on to something? I never expected that reaction to 14M additional Americans.

Note also, that Craigs in the news item referred to Pacific Edge Biotechnology, they have not been called that since April 2010 when they changed their name. The NZX ticker remains PEB.

I think we are starting to get different investors interested at this stage. I have noted a lot more buzz around PEB on sites like NZdoctor (whose currently "most read" article is one entitled "US Coup for Pacific Edge"). This makes me think a lot of doctors, who are pretty high wealth and mostly long term holders, are probably jumping in. The exposure probably means they do a little research (which they would understand a hell of a lot better than most of us), realise PEB is a winner and so jump in. At the same time I think Insto's were probably looking for 2 announcements of signing up big providers in the US, to ensure the single sign up wasn't just a fluke or otherwise. Insto's will be looking medium to long term and hence buying up large as well (at least they should be!), if they haven't already, or adding to their holding.

What is highly interesting however is the almost complete blackout of news on the big NZ website Financial news sections. I noticed one article on stuff a while ago which wasn't exactly complementary and another on the 19th on the Herald site which also was a bit fuzzy. Although we now have a good read in today's herald, just 15 minutes ago which should also spark a lot of interest...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I was thinking $1 by month end. I think $1 by week's end?

Fund managers who are not in the stock must be pxssing in their pants as they are going to look like real donkeys for missing the action.

Those who did not buy any off Masfen at 65 cents must be wondering when Masfen may sell a few more?

Looks more and more likely doesn't it?

Appears that our large sellers have disappeared. I doubt Masfen is looking to offload too many more at these levels - with his last sale he got all of his invested capital back, so I'd say he'd let the rest run for a while. I can't speak for him though, I could well be wrong!

[blobbles]

I was thinking $1 by month end. I think $1 by week's end?

Fund managers who are not in the stock must be pxssing in their pants as they are going to look like real donkeys for missing the action.

Those who did not buy any off Masfen at 65 cents must be wondering when Masfen may sell a few more?

I am thinking $10 at the end of the year 2015, so don't really care about $1 at the end of the year/week!

[CJ]

What is it about the announcement though? Is it just that it is so close to the previous one; or, are watchers starting to believe that Pacific Edge Limited is really on to something? I never expected that reaction to 14M additional Americans.With coverage of 1/6 of the US population, they probably have enough customers for their facility if those two middle men go exclusive with PEB.

If they sign anymore contracts, start buying NZPost as their will be a lot of piss being airfreighted into their Dunedin Lab.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Herald link: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11144239

A very good article on PEB. David Darling is quoted as saying that they hope to sign further US deals in the coming months.

[blobbles]

Herald link: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11144239

A very good article on PEB. David Darling is quoted as saying that they hope to sign further US deals in the coming months.

The thing I like about this article is the last sentence:

"the company would be expanding into Spain, which has the highest bladder cancer rates in the world, as well as Asia as early as next year."

Expansion into asia will likely result in a lower cost model with higher turnover. But great to see this is on their horizons too as I was wondering what the status was regarding Asia. It was the only large market they hadn't covered in any of their previous releases (that I remember) and being about 50% of the worlds population was a bit of an elephant in the room for me...

[robbo24]

There is some intriguing buying and selling going on at the moment - the volumes aren't very high by comparative standards to earlier today, perhaps some give and take later today? Or will tomorrow morning be another big boom?

[tunsbro]

Looks like my timing was so terrible after all. *touch wood*
Have set the knitting needles aside for the time being.

[Balance]

Look at that volume going through.

Some seriously committed buyers going in and they are having to pay up to get stock.

Says it is going much much higher.

[pierre]

Where's Moosie............................................ ?

[Minerbarejet]

Last line in Herald report -moving into asia as early as next year
Havent heard that before
One thought on these announcements. Last week there was a great carryon about xero and I think peb slipped all this under the radar. Todays response is excellent now they have clear air so to speak.

[Nigel]

Todays response is excellent now they have clear air so to speak.

Yep, not a lot on offer at all. Did someone say $1 would trigger the index funds? They better start buying now methinks!!

[Minerbarejet]

Right here! No regrets about selling, made a nice profit again, will easily pay for more than my trip away this weekend. Not bad for an hours work, made more than my fortnightly salary :)



You find your knickers yet Miner? There must be a big pile of them around by now!
Nah it was socks mate

[Balance]

I am thinking $10 at the end of the year 2015, so don't really care about $1 at the end of the year/week!

Could be $1 by day's end! :D

[Minerbarejet]

Its .94
Holy mackeral

[Balance]

Its .94
Holy mackeral

Jumping cat fish!!!!

:D :D :D

[GR8DAY]

........GOOD GRIEF!..............even I cant believe this, Im starting to turn into a bit of "nervous nelly" myself now.......30% in a day is getting a bit scary???

[pierre]

Make that .95!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

........GOOD GRIEF!..............even I cant believe this, Im starting to turn into a bit of "nervous nelly" myself now.......30% in a day is getting a bit scary???

Don't get nervous. As far as I understand it, there are still several insto's and funds looking for large amounts of stock. It appears that there is no one selling large amounts of stock right now, so it's only going to go one way and keep going that way. I see now reason to try and sell at the peak here as there is a lot of good news to come in the very near future.

[psychic]

Still cheap.
Xero was hard to understand. This is simply justified
Stand firm men!

[Dentie]

Well over a years salary in a day...hard to reconcile!!

[tosspot]

bring on the buck

[nextbigthing]

You find your knickers yet Miner? There must be a big pile of them around by now!

Miner will be easy to spot at the next AGM. He'll be the guy throwing his knickers at Mr Darling ;)

[clip]

If there's one thing that saddens me about this, it's that I only had a small amount of capital when I bought in haha. Will make a nice addition to a house deposit in a few years :)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Miner will be easy to spot at the next AGM. He'll be the guy throwing his knickers at Mr Darling ;)

David Darling sure knows how to please a grown man. I'm not sure what his wife would say about that...

[MAC]

i love the comments but i would love to see someone point me at a budget forecast or does otago uni not do budgets , ....to busy saving lives..

Surfersteve, PEB have not thus far been in the habit of providing sales or earnings guidance, although they do have a goal of achieving USD100M gross margins from US sales within five years.

Many have adopted a market share table as provided within the 2011 capital raising document as a forecast curve toward this goal. In addition one may allow for other forward revenue streams for cxbladder from Spain/Europe, Australia and from Asia now also it would seem. You may also like to consider future revenue streams from the other products PEB also have in the pipeline.

[tunsbro]

Well over a years salary in a day...hard to reconcile!!
Having 3 years salary in a biotech? That takes some serious balls. Hats off to you.
I'm now disappointed I couldn't put more in today. Would need to exit other positions to add and am not willing to... just yet.

[nextbigthing]

97 cents. This is outrageous. Where will it stop?

[Toasty]

Well over a years salary in a day...hard to reconcile!!

Welcome to flavour, I mean Xero country.

[Minerbarejet]

Hopefully at around 15 bucks

[psychic]

many thanks

most informative... they appear to be running out of cash?

with only about 24 months cash on the balance sheet left ...

i assume they have sales ramping up in the next two years..

the goal of 100 million is FAB!!!

eye watering ...

Will be profitable next year, and the goal seems very, very conservative

[blobbles]

Someone please explain how this stock goes to $10..

disclosure.. we own this stock... i like what they do but i hate the balance sheet...

this is the only stock we hold that is not a healthy cash cow with a profit and a dividend, my accounting background limits my vision and i like hearing the truth from the sales people..

so i like what this company does and i breached trust buying policies because i thought it was a good product to support...

so where does the cashflow come from to support the expenditure...

uni of otago investment ...

ok experts tell us what future is for next year as i cant see a forecast from the directors anywhere...

bought a few weeks ago..

Did you miss that they have the best cancer detection which surpasses anything currently on the market in method as well as results? Did you miss that just the US alone have almost 2 million potential customers per year with the CxBladder price point of $550 per test? Did you miss that David Darling has said repeatedly that they aim for $100 million USD sales in 5 years (and previous commitments have either been met or exceeded)?

PEB are yet to have solid sales figures. But that does not mean they are not on the cusp of greatness. If you value the company currently using only current sales, it would be both foolish and highly pessimistic, IMHO. Future sales is based on potentials, which they have in spades and you see future sales potential being built into the SP at the moment.

I value a company like PEB on their management ability (and track record) multiplied by the products potential. At the moment they are both huge. Xero had huge potential and top notch management, hence their share price. RAK have great potential yet terrible management, hence a price close to zero.

[clip]

Wahoooo! congrats everyone :D and a big thank you is in order. Only started my portfolio a few months ago and joined these forums within the last month. My socks are well and truly lost

[psychic]

kaachinnnnggg . a buck

[Toasty]

Big thanks to all the contributors to this site who provide the excellent research, unlike myself. My strike rate has gone way up since joining the community.

[Wolf]

I bought at 70c sold morning at 83c planning on entering again in the afternoon when the price "dropped off". No regrets but geez.

[777]

Well done those of you invested in PEB. You now have the $1.00 share price.

[stoploss]

Yes I have the same thank you to make. Many people but particularly Hancocks and STC. If it weren't for this thread I doubt I would have made my first purchase! Cheers!

+1, thanks guys

[zymwh]

I will have a beer or two tonight

[robbo24]

heheheheheheeh

[tosspot]

wouldn't have found this stock without this thread. cheers. now for the psychological $1 mark don't think it will break today and im trying to study for exams amazing how distracting good things can be

[clip]

wouldn't have found this stock without this thread. cheers. now for the psychological $1 mark don't think it will break today and im trying to study for exams amazing how distracting good things can be

Hah very distracting indeed. I'm an I.T systems engineer, sitting at a computer all day is not conducive to NOT constantly refreshing my asb watchlist page :D

[zymwh]

Its gone already...

[Nigel]

And nothing from 1.01 to 1.07. Blue skies :)

[nextbigthing]

now for the psychological $1 mark

I was waiting for traders to start off-loading huge quantities at $1. But $1 got eaten up very quickly. Next stop $1.50.

Disc; Holding. DYOR.