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Gryffyn
25-08-2005, 07:16 PM
...as in half hour?

Gryffyn
25-08-2005, 07:18 PM
Remember BLT?

What were your initial reason for PEB? Do they still hold? Can you afford it? What are the alternatives?

Gryffyn
25-08-2005, 09:08 PM
Actually I just mentioned it because I recall my great, great great grand-pappy telling me about him when he had steam-powered wireless ;)

As for BLT - one of my f***-ups but only cost a few grand so no real damage :-( Hopefully someone else will be able to advise you re PEB.

Good luck.

25-08-2005, 09:25 PM
Hancocks I think the prospectous requirements for a nissue to existing shareholders only is a lotless.

Lizard
26-08-2005, 06:42 AM
I'm not a boffin, so this is really just for discussion, but I posted this on the other PEB thread yesterday:

I'm not brave enough to hold this stock, but it really is starting to look quite promising. On the bladder cancer diagnostic, it is worth comparing to Matritech product NPM22 Bladderchek. This is in a strong growth phase and producing revenue of around $US1.8m in the last quarter. The accuracy is not clear, but seems like it may be slightly less than what PEB are claiming. Bladderchek makes up the major part of Matritech revenues and Matritech is currently trading on a Price/Sales ratio of close to 3.5.
PEB are behind in timeline and would need various approvals to get to this point, so probably another 3 years away. But (big assumption) if they could generate similar revenues, and P/S would make the market cap around $36m...

That does not take into account the gastric cancer diagnostic or the possible therapeutics.

However, there is alot of competition in these areas world wide, plus regulatory hurdles and development costs to get through, so the risk is high.

Compared to listed biotech companies working in similar fields, I suspect PEB are very under-valued. In which case the rights issue is a great opportunity to establish a holding very cheaply. New revenue from developments within the next financial year seems very quick too. However, I believe there are alot of companies working on targetted cancer therapeutics and diagnostics and the majority will not end up being the commercial winners. So I would put it at the very high risk end of the investment spectrum and would not be investing money I couldn't afford to lose.

Steve
26-08-2005, 11:13 AM
At the AGM, did they provide an explaination on why the Annual Report was late?

Lizard
30-08-2005, 05:21 PM
Have to say, that after posting here last, I went looking for the Medigen site - the company they are supposed to partnering with. The web-site did not appear to have been updated since early 2004... They did not have any investor info on the site or media releases. It did not appear that they have any commercial products (well at least in early 2004). Now, maybe I've missed something, but it did bother me that if PEB had something, they should be able to find a fairly "strong" company to partner them in it...

Just thought I should post that here to balance out my earlier post...

Lizard
20-09-2007, 10:39 AM
Another one where the old thread (http://www.snitzforum.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=19290&SearchTerms=peb,pacific) is stuck in the snitz forum.

Anyway, what is up with PEB this morning? No action for months and now a steady string of small buyers prepared to pay up. Was there a news article?

Bob Marley
20-09-2007, 10:46 AM
Lizard mon, a positive report on the business tv this morning mon. Something about they can test for certain types of cancer from a urine test mon.

barney
20-09-2007, 11:51 AM
There could be some more good news from PEB in the coming months.They should have their funding in place by the end of the year to carry them through to commercialisation.There may also be some good news regarding the completion of the gastric cancer diagnostic and possibly a licensing agreement.

There was also a positive article in the ODT on 31/8/07 following the AGM.

Scuffer
20-09-2007, 07:35 PM
Mr. Tindall is a shareholder and he didn't turn up at the AGM for the tea an biscuits, this is why patience and following the smart money pays off.

tobo
20-09-2007, 07:35 PM
That ASB Business TV item this morning left me with the impression that they have 4 tests ready to start selling. I thought "whaaaat? how did that happen so quick", having not checked on their progress for some months.
Didn't have time to follow up yet and find out what's happening.
Suspect I have got the wrong impression from the TV item. Their web site still says 3 test ready for clinical trials in 2007. Mmmm, reporters!
But I did have a minute to check depth in the morning and then see it broaden by this afternoon.

Scuffer
20-09-2007, 07:46 PM
Sounds to me like your going to buy in, I've got a few had them for ages, they did get up to 17 cents awhile back they just shot up and then as quickly dropped again.

barney
21-09-2007, 07:20 AM
Alongside Tindall are some other interesting names now on the share register.Hubbard,Baines.Todd,Masfen.
It will be interesting to see what names appear after the capital raising.

Lizard
21-09-2007, 08:10 AM
Barney, I don't think their interests have changed. I think most (all?) of them are holdings that were previously via NZ Seed Fund (refer notice for PEBCA in Jul 2003). They distributed their shares back to individual unit holders in Sept 2006. Might be wrong there though?

I have a small parcel of PEB in my collection of "tiny little biotech holdings that seem cheap". I think yesterday was the first day my overall collection had been in the black since I started it! :eek:

Scuffer
11-10-2007, 11:47 AM
Heres another one that will disappear over the horizon in foreign investors pockets, thats the way it goes with anything this country has thats any good just like the NZI advert says someones always stealing ya stuff.

Lizard
30-11-2007, 06:24 PM
It seems a brave move to announce the spp at approximately current market price and above the recent lows (and bid). A good move to my mind, since on these tiny cap shares, a low issue suggests desperation and can spiral down the price. No reason for that to occur in this case, so lets hope they can get the issue away to shareholders - it's a big dilution with $5.7m to be raised on a $10.1m market cap.

Lots of good things happening at PEB, but no certainty yet and a while till the extent of likely revenues can be gauged.

barney
01-12-2007, 07:45 AM
Yes,still a way to go for PEB Lizard but heading in the right direction.

It would help the spp if the company could release some positive news between now and the end of December.A licensing agreement for the gastric cancer diagnostic or some details regarding the private share placement would help.

I'll wait untill near the end of December to see what happens before taking up the offer.

barney
11-12-2007, 10:08 PM
I notice on the PEB website and on the Seek job search website that PEB have been advertising for a Bioinformatician.("Pacific edge is expanding it's bioinformatics team").

Seek is also advertising another job at PEB.A Relationship Development Manager-China.

They must have secured some funding from somewhere besides the spp.I wonder if there will be any news before the close off date for the spp?

Lizard
11-12-2007, 10:11 PM
Crazy time of year to send out an spp. I can't decide whether they are just terrible salespeople or they don't want shareholders to actually take up the shares - with price and timing making it so uncompelling!

Dubdee
12-12-2007, 07:54 AM
This company seems to have little drive to commercialise its research. Its just a big tit for some Dunedin scientists to maintain their lifestyle. I wont hold my breath regarding the projected revenues in a year's time

Scuffer
12-12-2007, 01:32 PM
You maybe right but they are not the only ones look around they are a few, funnily enough they are quite a few around Dunedin.

barney
17-05-2008, 01:36 PM
I notice that in the recent capital raising Peter Masfen raised his shareholding to 12% and the ACC have purchased a 5% stake.The ACC stake is small bananas in the grand scheme of things but interesting given the state of the listed biotechs at the moment.

Steve
17-05-2008, 01:54 PM
I was surprised to see ACC popping up at this point in time...

Lizard
18-05-2008, 03:41 PM
I was surprised to see ACC popping up at this point in time...

ACC seem to own virtually everything on the NZX...

....anyway, could be an okay time to own PEB if they were to actually meet their timeframes for completion of the bladder cancer assay clinical trial in the next 6 months (with first revenues expected "soon" after). Full year report due soon and will see how they are progressing.

Web-site is a disappointment with no 2007 report or interim report available there - given they are supposed to be going to the "electronically available" option, this seems a little remiss.

Lizard
18-05-2008, 03:58 PM
...something I posted on another forum a few months ago in regard to the fariness of the $12m market cap relative to market prospects...


Actually, also of interest in this regard is the progress of Matritech who were the major US producer of the Bladderchek test. Matritech was expecting FY07 revenues of around $US15m, coming largely from this business. However, the company continued to report quarterly losses and the assets were recently sold to Inverness Medical Innovations for $US36m. Matritech has since filed for dissolution. The sale and dissolution was expected to realise $US10 - $US12m for shareholders.

Steve
18-05-2008, 06:36 PM
How does the PEB product differ from what Matritech did?

Lizard
18-05-2008, 08:33 PM
My understanding is that the PEB product contains a prognostic as well as diagnostic aspect. But I am not entirely sure. I'm also guessing it is a more expensive test. Not an expert in these things.

Of course PEB also have the colo-rectal and gastric tests in pipeline plus early stage products and IP.

Steve
19-05-2008, 09:13 PM
Thanks for the points of difference... :)

Lizard
03-08-2008, 09:03 AM
I have finally been able to lay my eyes on the annual report, via the companies office web-site where it has now been lodged.

Last year, I recall seeing the notice advising that they would now be not issuing paper copies of the report except where requested and the report would be available on-line. That seemed fine until I received the "shareholder password" in the mail - a few weeks before the report was due to be put on line. Of course, it went into my totally safe filing system :eek: - and was never found again.

Anyway, I am still puzzled as to why a listed company would password protect its annual report on its web-site - I thought listed companies were required to provide potential investors with a copy of their annual report on request anyway? Even if that is not the case, the report is now available (one month later) on the companies web-site, so why the secrecy?

Lizard
03-08-2008, 09:39 AM
The directors report opines on the company's flagging share price that:

The domestic capital markets appear not to recognize the commercial potential of these medical device stocks.

Some responses:

Apart from not making their annual report freely available, the company seems not to have published an AGM speech last year or any other form of analyst presentation. If the market potential is to be recognised in the share price, then it is up to the company to explain it to the market.

Any company which anticipates raising new capital and yet does not attempt to make sure the market has a chance to fairly assess value is not acting in the best interests of existing shareholders. This additional risk factor only serves to further reduce any value attributed to existing shares.

Believability needs to be maintained and this means realistic/conservative timeframes being put forward. For instance in the 2006 report, the bladder cancer clinical trials were about to start and were expected to take 18 months; in 2007 the trials were supposedly underway and expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2008 and now the report says the the trial has begun and is expected to be completed by mid-2009. The lack of other updates or explanations for this slippage means that anything else the company writes can only be read with scepticism.

If the company is so cheap, where are the merger and takeover offers? No one shareholder appears to hold a blocking stake, although possibly there is some crossover of interests which protects the company?


The company provides some great info in its annual report which continues to be encouraging in terms of products and potential. However, they also indicate that each programme will require one clinical trial at $1m per trial - suggesting further capital raising will likely be needed unless they obtain significant licensing fees in the near future. I would like to see them make more effort to communicate the potential to NZ investors.

Lizard
03-08-2008, 10:42 AM
How does the PEB product differ from what Matritech did?

Note that the 2008 annual report contains references to NMP22 which is the Matritech test. PEB claims early indications that their test will be 90% accurate for stage one bladder cancer compared to 47% for NMP22. They also intend to test against NMP22 in the clinical trial.

I've also had a look at Genomic Health (http://investor.genomichealth.com/annuals.cfm) (Nasdaq GHDX) as a comparison raised by PEB for their breast cancer assay. It looks as though they raised over $53m in their float in 2005 to support commercialisation of their breast cancer assay. They use a 21 gene panel, so a little more complex than PEB's bladder cancer with 4 genes. In 2005, their revenue rose to $5m from $0.3m a year earlier, then $29m in 2006 and $64m in 2007. This seems to be nearly all on the back of their one commercial diagnostic. The most recent quarterly report shows revenues of $23m for three month period - however, the company still managed to report a $7m loss, with the cost of sales and marketing being a massive $12m. In fact, the annual losses have barely changed over the years, from a loss of $25m in 2004, through to a loss of $27m in 2008. While this can be largely attributed to the cost of sales and marketing and expensing of R&D, it is clearly not a rate of loss that a small NZ company could expect to maintain. Market cap of GHDX is currently $635m, with significant net cash.

Dubdee
05-08-2008, 09:23 AM
I think the comment that the capital markets don't understand PEB is incorrect. I think they do and is reflected in the share price. These guys have forgotten they are a business with the objective to make money, the sooner the better. I feel that this company is managed for the benefit of management and researchers rather than shareholders. When is all this research going to be commericialised and we see some revenue?

Lizard
05-08-2008, 10:10 AM
Dubdee,

World-beating, valuable technology is rarely developed on a shoestring budget. And when it is, getting it to market ahead of emerging competitors is an even larger (financial) challenge. There is a negative feedback loop in NZ technology investment which is not helping. It goes like this:


Investors are dubious about the odds of investment success on early-stage technology - therefore they apply a high risk premium in their valuations (lower valuation)
Low valuation applied to company reduces the potential capital that can be raised and therefore limits the speed of development, increasing time till profitability and reducing the magnitude of forecast profits. It also increases the dilution of existing shareholders that occurs while the company is in capital-raising stage. Both these factors further reduce the underlying valuation of existing shares.
Lower share valuation means next round of investment requires even more dilution and further slowing of speed to market. Share price goes down with each round of capital raising.
Investors become even more dubious about their odds of making money on early-stage technology investments.


There are other negative feedbacks in there as well - liquidity being one. Loss of (or inability to attract) good management due to lack of investor support may be another.

While the excessive optimism of the dot.com era was not healthy, this "kill-it-off-before-it-dies" pessimism of the Australasian markets is self-fulfilling.

barney
05-08-2008, 11:42 AM
I tend to agree with your comments Lizard,especially in regards to PEB and the forcasts they have made concerning trial completion dates and capital raisings.

I guess one positive is the fact that the largest shareholders have recently put more money in,including Peter Masfen who is now the biggest shareholder.

To get some positive sentiment building towards the companies outlook they will actually have to meet some of the dates they have forcast for completion of trials and product developement as set out in the annual report.They will need to show that they have a product ready for market and that it can generate revenue.Untill then the shareprice won't move.

I think the products they are developing have huge potential,especially the gastric cancer test.We may get a better idea of how things are progressing with the agm to be held this month.

Lizard
06-08-2008, 02:06 PM
Gone from 8cps to 13cps. Did we accidentally ramp this? :confused::o

barney
07-08-2008, 12:57 PM
Early this year I remember, whilst trolling the internet,coming across a couple of lines in an article which quoted CEO David Darling.The article was talking about the difficulties of raising capital in NZ.From what I can remember there were a couple of lines where David Darling mentioned how difficult it was to raise capital in NZ and that PEB may look at listing on offshore markets such as London or in the US.I've tried to find the article but to no avail.

When reading the annual report and coming across the line that Lizard mentioned re the capital markets not understanding the potential value of PEB I recalled the above mentioned article.Should they strike a licensing deal with a European or US company listing offshore may be someting they look at.It seems a slightly unusual thing to say in an annual report so maybe it's a hint to where they are looking.

Trouble is not many NZ companies have covered themselves in glory by listing offshoe and it would be an expensive exercise for a small biotech.But then again if they had an offshore partner.

Kookaburra
08-08-2008, 10:47 AM
Hmmm. Years ago I posted advice that this was a company to avoid and someone shouted me down. My posting seems to have disappeared but my advice remains the same. I had been informed by someone whose advice I respect that, if my recollection is correct, the predictive model they were using tended to greatly overestimate the tests effectiveness.

barney
18-08-2008, 03:08 PM
I see the Ludwig Institute have announced on their website the joint development with PEB of the prototype prognostic test for the progression of aggresive stage III melanoma.The test has 85% to 90% accuracy.

It would appear that the initial validation tests have been completed.The next stage should be the clinical trial which was mentioned in the annual report.I guess there will be more detail at the agm.

Lizard
18-08-2008, 03:51 PM
Hi Barney, here's some more related links - the first to an article on Genome Web and the second to the (abstract from the) actual publication in Clinical Cancer Research:

http://www.genomeweb.com/issues/news/148865-1.html
http://clincancerres.aacrjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/14/16/5173

barney
18-08-2008, 06:20 PM
Cheers Lizard

You never know,this time next year PEB could actually have three products ready for market.

The bladder cancer diagnostic,colorectal cancer prognostic,and the melanoma prognostic.

Lizard
18-08-2008, 06:36 PM
Genomic Health is working on colon cancer too - and with a slightly bigger budget I would think. Gastric cancer would be the one to nail!

Sideshow Bob
15-07-2009, 10:17 PM
Just recently aware of this puppy. Any recent thoughts out there?

Looks risky, but maybe worth a dabble??

Lizard
11-12-2009, 04:47 PM
I sold out of PEB. Has been a good hold through the turbulent GFC, but when I bought, I think the market cap was around $12m and it is now about $36m. Still a bit of uncertainty and likely growing pains as they go commercial. The potential may be there, but I'm wary that commercialisation is often a disappointment in the first few years.

There are so many "cheap" stocks available in NZ at the moment that PEB no longer looks so attractive by comparison.

Best wishes to holders. I will continue to follow with interest.

Sideshow Bob
11-12-2009, 08:33 PM
I sold out of PEB. Has been a good hold through the turbulent GFC, but when I bought, I think the market cap was around $12m and it is now about $36m. Still a bit of uncertainty and likely growing pains as they go commercial. The potential may be there, but I'm wary that commercialisation is often a disappointment in the first few years.

There are so many "cheap" stocks available in NZ at the moment that PEB no longer looks so attractive by comparison.

Best wishes to holders. I will continue to follow with interest.

I have been watching since my last post - at 11c. Never bought in and obviously have rued this. The price strengthened up to about 25c, and has recently dropped back to about 17c.

But the big jump Monday/Tuesday was probably caused by this and a lack of liquidity.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/news/3130246/Dunedin-cancer-test-gets-the-edge-in-7b-market

Still interested if the price is right. Know one person invloved in the company and fairly serious person, who I would rate.

Silverlight
12-01-2010, 10:34 AM
Price up today on this article: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10619619&pnum=0

rpcas
13-01-2010, 09:41 AM
____________________________________

Silverlight
13-01-2010, 09:58 AM
Just aim to get in at an average price then.

If you have $10k, buy 2k @ 35 cents, put 2k on the market at the best bid, you might pick them up for 30 -33 cents.

And wait for the trial results, if they are negative the price might go back to 15 -20 cents, and you only lose out on the 4k you invested, and you can buy another 2k at 15-20 cents.

If the the results are positive, and price goes up, you have a little skin in the game, and you accumulate more on the way up.


This is all based on the fact that you think long term the stock is fundamenatlly sound investment for your risk level.

rpcas
13-01-2010, 02:41 PM
______________________________

Silverlight
26-01-2010, 03:22 PM
Commercialisation of Pacific Edge's Bladder Detection Test

https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/NZSE0000/2010/325734/NZSE0000-113259.pdf

Silverlight
01-03-2010, 11:58 AM
Pacific Edge announces Cxbladder performance at the Australian and New Zealand urologists scientific meeting in Perth, Australia.

22 February 2010

Pacific Edge announced the clinical trial performance of the Cxbladder, test in Perth on Monday 22nd of February. Peter Davidson, a renowned New Zealand urologist and the lead clinical investigator in this research, presented the scientific performance of Cxbladder to the Australasian urologists and medical professionals at their Annual Scientific Meeting. The scientific meeting hosted 600 delegates with urologists from New Zealand, Australia, US, Singapore, South Africa, United Kingdom, Ireland, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea.

The Company’s bladder cancer diagnostic technology, Cxbladder, enables the early detection of bladder cancer from a small volume of urine. The presentation in Perth reported on the performance of Cxbladder, the new commercial product developed from the clinical trial data. Cxbladder showed an approximate overall sensitivity that was 30% better than urine cytology and 40% better than the competitor test NMP22. Its performance was most notable for the detection of tumours of high grade, and middle and late stage, where it correctly identified greater than 96% of cases with 85% specificity. These tumours are of particular concern to urologists and the tests high performance provides an opportunity to improve patient outcome and lower overall costs of treatment.

The Company, as part of its roll-out in the US and Europe, has plans in place for further studies that will have the dual purpose of providing further validation data and also engaging specific key medical and urological opinion leaders who will be vital to a successful launch in new markets.

This non-invasive test is expected to provide general practitioners and urologists with a quick, cost effective and accurate measure of the presence of the cancer and provides urologists with the opportunity to reduce their reliance on the need for invasive tests such as cystoscopy. After additional clinical testing, Cxbladder is also anticipated to be used for monitoring patients for recurrence following treatment.

Pacific Edge completed recruitment of patients for the bladder cancer clinical trial in late 2009 and analysis of the data was completed in February. The data analysis on almost 500 patients from NZ/Australia shows that the Company’s bladder cancer test has met its clinical end points and performs significantly better than all of the benchmark tests.

Bladder cancer is one of the most common cancers in Western society. In Australasia, bladder cancer is the 5th most common cancer among men and the eighth most common cancer overall. On a global basis there are 365,000 new cases annually and 47,000 deaths.

Bladder cancer has the highest total medical costs of any cancer driven in part by the very high recurrence rate (50-90%), with approximately 15-30% of these recurring as later stage tumours. The surveillance of patients who have been diagnosed with bladder cancer extends for at least five years from the time of first diagnosis. Surveillance is currently carried out by urologists using invasive cystoscopy often accompanied by one or more cytologies. The Company’s test is designed to replace cytology and to also be used as an adjunct to cystoscopy. Its use is predicted to not only improve the quality of surveillance but also lead to a decrease in the frequency of cystoscopies.

The Company is progressing the commercialisation of this product to Australasian urologists through its Dunedin based laboratory. The Company is currently developing its commercial laboratory to provide a dedicated service and would expect that this will be completed within the next few months and the test offered commercially in May 2010.

Commercialisation of Cxbladder is planned to follow-on in Singapore, USA and Europe by providing services to physicians and urologists through a centralised service laboratory strategy in each geography. Pacific Edge anticipates partnering in several of these locations using the services model being developed in the Australasian market and negotiations are currently underway with potential commercial partners in the US, Europe and Australasia.

The Company has recently been awarded patents in New Zealand and Singapore for its bladder cancer diagnostic technology and the Company anticipates the issue of these patents in other targeted countries to follow over the next 12 to 24 months.

Pacific Edge Biotechnology Ltd, (PEB), is a Dunedin based biomedical company developing and commercialising technology for cancer detection and management.

p2r
05-03-2010, 10:36 PM
even dropped back to 25c this has made as much as resteraunt brands and feels like a bomb about to go off.

Silverlight
25-05-2010, 04:15 PM
NZX Release Pacific Edge (PEB)

Pacific Edge advises the successful completion of the European clinical trial of our prognostic gene signature for colorectal cancer. This is a significant commercial milestone for the Company. The clinical trial results for Pacific Edge’s gene signature will be presented at the annual scientific meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) by our European licensee in early June in Chicago. Pacific Edge’s colorectal cancer prognostic gene signature is the second commercial product for the Company and it joins the Company’s recently launched bladder cancer detection test Cxbladder.

Europe is the second largest healthcare market in the world after the US, representing approximately 30% of global health care spending.

Colorectal cancer has second highest incidence of all cancers creating a large impact worldwide with over 1.1 million new cases annually. Colorectal cancer has a particularly high incidence in Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America. It is anticipated that this year over 530,000 people globally will die from the disease.

This new product for the prognosis of colorectal cancer is targeted to meet a large unmet clinical need for patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Pacific Edge’s prognostic gene signature identifies patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer whose disease is aggressive, likely to recur after surgery and who would benefit from additional treatment. The identification of those patients at greatest risk represents a new tool for clinicians and effective use of this tool by clinicians could be expected to lead to better treatment and more lives saved.

Pacific Edge’s colorectal cancer prognostic gene signature is the second commercial product for the Company and it joins the Company’s recently launched bladder cancer detection test Cxbladder. Cxbladder is a fast, accurate, non-invasive assay that accurately measures the activity of five genes from a small sample of the patients’ urine to diagnose bladder cancer.

Pacific Edge is a biomedical company specialising in the development and commercialisation of diagnostics and prognostics for cancer. The Company is also actively working on the research and development of products for gastric cancer, endometrial cancer and melanoma.

croesus
26-05-2010, 02:53 AM
Thanks for finding the thread .. Phaedrus.

Will be interesting if this news (released at close of market yesterday) moves the share price.....on the basis of bouncing of the support at 20c four times. ( in the last several weeks). and the increased volumn .. I purchased on Monday and last week at 22c.
Would expect a price spike... but the markets are currently not buoyant. 6 hours will tell.

croesus
31-05-2010, 09:22 PM
Closed at 32c ..up over 50% in the last 10 days...............Would a real chartist (as opposed to a rank amateur like myself) be prepared to voice a opinion .on where from now............ thanks.

Silverlight
09-06-2010, 01:30 PM
Pacific Edge Announces Successful Completion of Colorectal Cancer Prognostic Clinical Trial

Clinical Results Presented Today at ASCO 2010


CHICAGO, IL (June 4, 2010): Pacific Edge (PEB) a New Zealand-based biomedical company, today announced the successful completion of the European clinical trial for their prognostic gene signature for colorectal cancer. The clinical trial results showed a successful outcome that enables patients diagnosed with UICC stage II or UICC stage III colorectal cancer and with a high risk of disease progression to be identified and treated more appropriately. PEB’s European licensee, Signature Diagnostics (SDX) completed the clinical trial and will present the results at the annual scientific meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago on the 4th of June.

Chief Executive Officer David Darling stated that the conclusion of the European clinical trial, was a significant commercial milestone for Pacific Edge. “This prognostic gene signature for colorectal cancer is our second commercial product, and joins our bladder cancer diagnostic assay, Cxbladder™. Cxbladder™ is a fast, non-invasive assay that measures the activity of five genes from a small sample of the patient’s urine to accurately diagnose bladder cancer.”

Pacific Edge Chief Scientific Officer, Parry Guilford commented that the company’s prognostic gene signature will meet a large unmet clinical need for patients diagnosed with stage II and stage III colorectal cancer. “Our prognostic gene signature identifies patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer whose disease is aggressive, likely to recur after surgery, and who would benefit from additional therapy”.

Pacific Edge granted a European exclusive licence for its new cutting-edge prognostic gene signature for colorectal cancer to SDX in late 2006 with commercialisation pending a sucessful completion of the clinical trial. Europe is the second largest healthcare market in the world after the United States and represents around 30 per cent of global health care spending.

Colorectal cancer has the second highest incidence of all cancers in the world, with over 1.1 million new cases diagnosed annually. It has a particularly high incidence in Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America. This year more than 530,000 people around the world are expected to die from the disease.

spike
27-08-2010, 06:37 PM
Did any one go to the AGM or have news from the AGM

barney
27-08-2010, 06:58 PM
I did'nt get to the AGM but there will probably be something about it in the Otago Daily Times tomorrow or Monday.

croesus
27-08-2010, 09:33 PM
Thanks for that update Hancocks...was tempted to go down.. but living in Hastings...
Couple of questions if I may..

A/ From a commercial.. point of view.. Did you get the vibe.. that the products would make the company profitable in the next year or so.

B/ Any hint of new product/tests ..or value adding in the next 6 months to a year.

Thanks for that.

Cheers.

brettdale
28-08-2010, 04:53 PM
If they believe they could be cash positive, and it comes true, it might be time to get in.

barney
12-11-2010, 03:32 PM
The New Zealand Trade and Enterprise website has a interview clip with David Darling which is quite interesting.

spike
21-12-2010, 04:41 PM
What up with peb? Sellers have disappeared currently price 20 cents buyers at 20 sellers at 34. Any new coming?

stephens.pc
28-03-2011, 02:37 PM
Anyone know where I can get a copy of the 2010 annual report?

Lizard
28-03-2011, 02:57 PM
Normally, I would have said the Companies office, but it doesn't look like it is available there... google sometimes finds the backdoor though - try this:
PEB AR 2010 (http://file.nzx.com/000/024/3871024.pdf)
PEB - HY sep 2010 (http://file.nzx.com/000/292/4401292.pdf)

stephens.pc
28-03-2011, 03:21 PM
Perfect, thank you!

p2r
29-03-2011, 04:24 PM
I think they will need another capital raising before the cashflow comes good. But Healthscope is a major player in labs in Oceania, they have already taken over some NZ labs eg Gribbles vet pathology but PEB is too illiquid for a takeover ... but then i thought that of AFFCO.

Scuffer
31-03-2011, 09:59 AM
Never say never They are some big players watching this stock.

p2r
29-07-2011, 12:28 PM
Does the book build mean some of them are taking a stake?

GR8DAY
29-07-2011, 12:56 PM
......sounds like a well balanced and fair (unlike WDT) capital raising proposal......I'll be taking up my full allocation plus some if possible. I dont see any huge risks attached to this small company and more than happy to support and enjoy the ride with a true Kiwi hi-tech company. If this is a successful cap raising they will have more cash than they know what to do with for some time.....I think $5.1m plus $16m?? Roll on PEB!!

GR8DAY
01-08-2011, 09:23 AM
wooow......big buyer at 20c just pulled the price back 6% (but not for long by the look of things).......someone's got confidence in this co. besides myself (stephen tindall "topping up") ??...........

barney
05-08-2011, 01:58 PM
A couple of things of interest in an article about PEB in todays NBR.

David Darling mentioned that the initial share offer to institutional and habitual investors in the latest capital raising had been significantly oversubscribed and that the demand will flow on through to the tradeable rights which will come from the rights issue.

The company expects to have US licenses and to be market ready in March 2013. The first US customer has a private practice in New Jersey that has 120 urologists in it, about three times as many as there are in NZ.

I hope to make the trip south to attend the AGM on the 25th. Should be interesting.

GR8DAY
05-08-2011, 02:34 PM
........all sounds good Barney. Enjoy the AGM and please keep us posted. Exciting prospects for an ethical cutting edge co.

barney
26-08-2011, 12:06 PM
The annual meeting held yesterday was a low key but interesting affair. Much of what was presented was information which has already been presented to shareholders over the last few months. However, there were some interesting points.

Healthscope and PEB will begin marketing cxbladder in Australia in about four weeks time.PEB expects Oryzon to start marketing in Spain and Portugal some time in October.

Singapore is likely to be the next country that PEB targets. Patents have been issued in Singapore, it is close to other Asian markets, is English speaking, and has tax agreements with NZ which means they are not taxed twice.

The recent share issue to institutions was 1.6 times over subscribed so augers well for the capital raising.

The general message from the company is that things are progressing well and it has been a satisfying year, especially on the science front.It will take a bit of time and marketing effort to get sales cranked up, with Colin Dawson making the point that medical specialists are naturally conservative in nature especially when introducing new products.David Darling commented that Parry Guilford was close to finalising a peer reviewed paper for release to the medical profession which should help in getting cxbladder into the marketplace.

barney
06-09-2011, 06:46 PM
Interesting article about Pacific Edge in http://unlimited.co.nz/unlimited.nsf/innovation/pacific-edge-breaks-through

Anna Naum
06-09-2011, 08:01 PM
A couple of things of interest in an article about PEB in todays NBR.

David Darling mentioned that the initial share offer to institutional and habitual investors in the latest capital raising had been significantly oversubscribed and that the demand will flow on through to the tradeable rights which will come from the rights issue.

The company expects to have US licenses and to be market ready in March 2013. The first US customer has a private practice in New Jersey that has 120 urologists in it, about three times as many as there are in NZ.

I hope to make the trip south to attend the AGM on the 25th. Should be interesting.

Looks like DD was talking porkies

barney
31-01-2012, 08:35 PM
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news/article/19

zs_cecil
01-02-2012, 01:08 PM
Based in Dunedin, New Zealand, Pacific Edge Diagnostics, Ltd., a leading developer of cancer diagnostic and prognostic technology, plans to open its first US franchise to market the company's bladder cancer detection test, Cxbladder(R), to urologists in the United States by the end of the year.

Hope they still hold enough cash to proceed its plan till the end of the year.

zs_cecil
01-02-2012, 09:12 PM
http://www.fox43.com/news/wpmt-new-company-set-to-bring-close-to-100-jobs-and-new-medical-technology-to-derry-township-20120131,0,910457.story

An interesting video about the planning US lab.

GR8DAY
02-02-2012, 03:18 PM
Zs......Im pretty sure there's plenty of cash in the coffers for these and further developments?

zs_cecil
03-02-2012, 12:56 AM
Zs......Im pretty sure there's plenty of cash in the coffers for these and further developments?

At least they will not burn them all today. :D

p2r
03-03-2012, 09:00 AM
About $20 million which should last 3-4 years (last report expense $3.5m). Shareprice seems to have a solid bottom at 19c. The next year should be key as to how cx bladder is accepted in the new markets. Not much on sales yet - NZ & Aus starting now and states to come in late 2012. Quality partners should help eg Healthscope, Penn state uni.
Strong $NZ so good time to be investing o seas. Can't see much sign of broad institutional support yet - no AMP or govtsuper or ACC on the register last ann report.

barney
05-03-2012, 06:52 AM
http://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/in-print/2012/february-2012/29-february-2012/dunedin-company-behind-cancer-test.aspx

barney
24-03-2012, 03:13 PM
http://idealog.co.nz/businessplan/first-defence

barney
02-06-2012, 04:06 PM
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/211646/pacific-edge-poised-success-us-market

barney
24-08-2012, 03:16 PM
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/222937/pacific-edge-ready-us-roll-out

Unfortunately I did'nt get to this years meeting but I spoke with a mate last night who attended and it sounded very positive. He said the fitout of the US lab is running on schedule and on budget. He also noted that during the meeting David Darling mentioned that they were working on some new deals and these would hopefully be announced in the not to distant future.

All in all things look good for the future with the US business still looking to be up and running in March 2013.

p2r
18-09-2012, 02:25 PM
Is that intra day up to 32 c ... and volume like never before....

zs_cecil
22-09-2012, 08:54 AM
It is flying...



Trading halt due to price enquiry

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/227594

34c - with over 1m shares trading hand before the halt.....

Sounds like good news has been leaking out.....

spike
08-10-2012, 06:29 PM
I suspect someone must be slowly accumulating as the share price kepts increasing slowly. Every time I think about selling a few the price goes up again and I stick them back in my pocket. It would be nice to know what is going on. Still kicking myself for selling out of ATM to soon after holding the shares for years so I dont want to do the same mistake again

Spike

barney
17-10-2012, 09:56 AM
According to PEB the price per test in the US is likey to be between US$500 and US$800. The test in Australia is AU$240 and in NZ $320.

Balance
17-10-2012, 12:40 PM
According to PEB the price per test in the US is likey to be between US$500 and US$800. The test in Australia is AU$240 and in NZ $320.

Any idea how that price per test compares with other tests?

barney
17-10-2012, 02:27 PM
Any idea how that price per test compares with other tests?

I don't know what the cost of the other tests are but cxbladder is a heck of a lot cheaper than cystoscopy.

barney
18-10-2012, 10:37 AM
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/230843/otago-companys-us-lab-nearly-ready-operate

Looks like they are happy with the initial revenue figures.

The Grinch
19-10-2012, 10:47 AM
:) Always good to see PEB in the paper http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10841548

Anyone else got a bit more information/speculation on the joint venture with Harvard? Definitely couldn't hurt their reputation as they seek to fill those 260,000 orders.

P.s. My first post!! after months of devouring Sparky, PT's, Balance, Belgerions and co's wisdom and banter. Please be nice.

Snow Leopard
19-10-2012, 11:47 AM
...P.s. My first post!! after months of devouring Sparky, PT's, Balance, Belgerions and co's wisdom and banter. Please be nice.

It is spelt belgarion.

I am worried that my mention is not under the wisdom category.

Still welcome and best wishes
Paper Tiger

GR8DAY
23-10-2012, 05:20 PM
.......ALL THE TESTS AND EVIDENCE BASED RESULTS ARE AT HAND ALREADY......THUS IT SHOULD BE AN EASY SELL INTO THE US MARKETS. THE TIGHT KNIT COMMUNITY OF AMERICAN UROLOGISTS WILL BE WELL AWARE ALREADY (and possibly waiting with baited breaths)......LAUNCH DAY WILL BE WELL ANTICIPATED AND I IMAGINE ORDERS WILL BE THERE ALREADY.........THAT'S THE WAY THINGS WORK THESE DAYS. WISH I HAD BOUGHT MORE NOW........BUT ISNT THAT JUST THE WAY!!

GR8DAY
23-10-2012, 06:04 PM
.......AGREED SPARKY......but then if US doctors are really THAT profit focused they will inevitably run with the "cheaper" and hopefully more reliable option (CxBladder) and be able to crank their profits accordingly!! As far as future SPs go I'd be more than happy with the former($1/share)......but all a bit early to be getting that excited. Very achievable though but steady as she goes is what we all want ah??

enzed staffy
24-10-2012, 10:50 AM
...cystoscopy - a needle inserted into one's urethra (shudder).[/QUOTE]

Its not a needle.
A cystoscopy is a direct visualisation of the bladder by flexible telescope. Think more the diameter of a ball point pen.
Thank god for anaesthetics. ;)

zs_cecil
31-10-2012, 04:27 PM
Chalkie has a very good insight into Pacific Edge this morning. He moderates the recent enthusiasm for PEB shares a little but clearly outlines the potential as well.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/7884608/Ingenuity-at-sharp-end-of-cancer-diagnosis

This is an article that caused 9.1% down for today. Good on the author.

barney
31-10-2012, 07:09 PM
Since the shareprice has moved up following the annual meeting there have been a number of articles about PEB in the media. It goes to show how lazy most jurnos are when it comes to reporting on listed companies. Apart from the ODT, there have been few articles in the media since PEB was listed over 10 years ago. Most jurnos don't know much about the company and the main reason for the recent reporting on it seems to be that the shareprice has increased, yet the company has just been going about it's business and progressing with Cxbladder to a point where it is now entering markets.

Another article recently described PEB as a " start up company." That's after the company has been around for more than a decade.

I notice in the Chalkie article the author says the shares are overpriced but he does not say what price they should be valued at, which is pretty typical for a jurno these days.

percy
31-10-2012, 07:29 PM
I thought Chalkie wrote a very fair article.Tim Hunter [present Chalkie] is a very experience jurno and investor. Although prospects look excellent any investor who has invested in this sector in NZ,Aussie,US,or UK will tell you it is near impossible to value such a company.Many a fool has tried and failed.Hunter is no fool.

barney
31-10-2012, 08:00 PM
I thought Chalkie wrote a very fair article.Tim Hunter [present Chalkie] is a very experience jurno and investor. Although prospects look excellent any investor who has invested in this sector in NZ,Aussie,US,or UK will tell you it is near impossible to value such a company.Many a fool has tried and failed.Hunter is no fool.

I don't think the article was unfair but if a jurno is going to say that the shareprice is overvalued then he must have an idea in his mind as to what the shares are worth, otherwise how can he say they are overvalued ? I would agree that putting a value on the company at this point is very difficult as you are really looking into the future, but that's the case with most companies.

Another jurno a few weeks ago speculated that PEB could be in talks with Harvard University which lead the company having to make a NZX announcement that this was not the case.

Balance
31-10-2012, 08:52 PM
I agree - no qualms with the article. I'm bullish on and reasonably exposed in PEB and thought it was quite fair.

Just remember that by now, some people will have doubled their money, that's a good psychological trigger to sell.

Although I considered 38c a good buying point a few weeks ago and collected a number then, I now have all the shares I want. Any more would be either greedy and risky.

The overpriced comment is unfortunate, as there is equally every possibility that the current buying level is extremely cheap.

I think it is great that PEB is finally getting some decent coverage. Tim Hunter is a good journo and it is to his credit that he has given a good assessment of where he sees PEB.

The key point I always ask myself is whether an article adds new information to the reader and in this case, I think it does - overwhelmingly.

Not that I agree with him, especially the overpriced bit, but he is entitled to his opinion. If you are a trader, you may well be unhappy but if you believe in the PEB story, see it as a temperory setback and for those who missed the run to 48 cents, an investment opportunity.

Those who participated in the Diligent and 42 Below stories would be eternally grateful to the journos out there who kept expressing doubts about the two companies - providing outstanding opportunities to pick up cheap stocks all the way up.

All the best, PEB - make NZ proud of you!

percy
31-10-2012, 08:58 PM
Sparky The Clown and barney.
Yes I think you are right,if you are going to state the SP is over-valued you should state what you think is "fair" value.
There I would think he would have 'no idea".
Balance.Would love you to be "right on the money".!

Balance
01-11-2012, 02:23 PM
This is an article that caused 9.1% down for today. Good on the author.

I think the panic sellers are out of the way and the longer term buyers are back in again, building up on the bid side.

If you have paid 44 cents the other day for 1.2m shares, here's an opportunity to pick up a few more at under 44 cents. But maybe, the volume is not there?

barney
01-11-2012, 03:01 PM
I see Superlife have increased their holding over the past few weeks, so they must have been happy to pay the higher price. They have been a shareholder for quite a while so they must be satisfied that the company is heading in the right direction.

Both their NZ share fund and Gemino fund have large holdings, with PEB being the biggest investment by far in their Gemino fund.

zs_cecil
01-11-2012, 10:10 PM
I don't think the article was unfair but if a jurno is going to say that the shareprice is overvalued then he must have an idea in his mind as to what the shares are worth, otherwise how can he say they are overvalued ? I would agree that putting a value on the company at this point is very difficult as you are really looking into the future, but that's the case with most companies.

Another jurno a few weeks ago speculated that PEB could be in talks with Harvard University which lead the company having to make a NZX announcement that this was not the case.

The company still needs some time to validate their claims on the market size even though the estimate on the customer numbers is attractive. Chalkie seems not very optimistic on this. Chalkie also mentioned that it is better to have overpriced shares in a promising hi-tech company (I think he is talking about Xero) other than this company. This may hinted at the fact that companies like PEB are far more difficult to obtain the customers at the early stage of the product than the hi-tech company like Xero. I guess most of us have already understood this. But I think you are right, overprice is not a proper word for both companies because they just can't be valued for now. The best results for these companies which have a niche product is probably an acquisition by other companies at a high $$$$ value. :cool:

CJ
02-11-2012, 07:41 AM
Chalkie also mentioned that it is better to have overpriced shares in a promising hi-tech company (I think he is talking about Xero) other than this company. This may hinted at the fact that companies like PEB are far more difficult to obtain the customers at the early stage of the product than the hi-tech company like Xero. Probably refering to both Xero and DIL. The fact is both of those have a viable product and an expanding customer base. It is still unclear whether PEB will get a viable product (though I think this is more likely than not now) and then whether doctors will be happy to change to it. Anyone who held on to Xero or DIL (in the early days) know that it is expensive to grow sales rapidly. So even once they get their viable product on the shelf, the cash burn will still be high for years to come.

Balance
02-11-2012, 09:48 AM
Oh oh .....not a good look at all.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/166026.pdf

CEO sold 1.275m shares at between 42 cents and 44 cents, after exercising options to purchase shares at 9 cents.

From AR, looks like he was paid $230,000 p.a. for last 2 years.

I thought disclosures have to be made within 48 hours when an officer of a company makes purchases or sales?

Balance
02-11-2012, 11:46 AM
I agree, it doesn't do much for a vote of confidence in the future when the CEO of a small 'start-up' company exercises his options and then flogs the lot on the market as soon as the price picks up, unless of course he's planning to move on?? I wonder how many shares (if any) he has left? It wasn't clear from today's announcement or the 2012 annual report.

305,292 shares left according to SSH notice.

I actually have no problem with officers of companies exercising options and selling shares - they all have their own reasons for doing so and more often than not, they have no idea where the shares are going to go in the future. In fact, they provide cheap entry to shares for that reason - e.g.. Diligent when a few of the executives exercised options and sold on the way up to $1.00.

The ones you have to watch are the principal investors and directors like Masfen. He buys, you buy. He sells, you better get the hell out in a big hurry! Luckily, they tend to sell only via trade sales so you can go along with the ride.

What I have a real problem with is disclosure - disclosures must be timely. In this case, he sold 250,000 shares on 26 Oct and only reported it today.

barney
02-11-2012, 12:27 PM
I don't have a problem with it either. David Darling is not listed as a substantial shareholder, in fact is not in the top twenty shareholders. As CEO of the company part of his remuneration is obviously in shares. At some point he has to sell some of those shares to realise that remuneration. As an employee of the company he is exposed to a larger degree of risk than most if the company fails. He looses not only his salary but also the part of his remuneration which is tyed up in shares. I don't know the reason he has sold these shares but part of it may well be to reduce some of his exposure to risk. I would do the same.

PEB also has an employee incentive plan where key staff can be issued shares over a four year period but cannot sell them for two years from issue date. The company must also be trading in a cash flow positive way and the shares must be trading on the NZX at a minimum price of $1.00. I would guess that the CEO may well be participating in the scheme so realising some profit on shares previously issued would make sense.

If the shareprice rises as a result of the CEO doing a good job then my feeling is that he is entitled to sell some shares issued in an incentive plan to realise some of that reward.

CJ
02-11-2012, 12:46 PM
I don't have a problem with it either. ... I don't know the reason he has sold these shares but part of it may well be to reduce some of his exposure to risk. I would do the same.


I agree that a CEO selling down is reason for a second look, but it is not a reason for panic. People sell for many reasons, school fees, paying an ex-wife, building a new home, building a diversified portfolio etc.I will try to put a positive spin on it aswell.

If the options were granted as part of his remuneration, he is taxable on the difference of the exercise price and the market price at the time of exercise (ie. the benefit from the options is treated as taxable income). Therefore it is in a employees best interest to exercise as soon as possible if they believe the share price is going to increase in the future. However, that crystalises a tax liability to it also force them to sell them to pay the tax.

Therefore exercising the otions rather than letting them run is a positive sign and selling up is just a natural consequence for tax reasons and the other reasons that I quote above.

barney
02-11-2012, 02:34 PM
I would also make the point that David Darling has been the CEO at PEB for nine years, after which time you would not think it unreasonable to cash up some shares. At times over that nine years it must have been pretty tough going, especially trying to secure funding to keep operating and to attract and retain good quality staff. As we all know, many other tech/biotech stocks have fallen by the wayside, yet Darling has managed to get the company through to the point where it will hopefully start generating serious revenue. There is still a long way to go but by getting the company to this point, the CEO must take a lot of credit.

Balance
02-11-2012, 03:37 PM
Probably refering to both Xero and DIL. The fact is both of those have a viable product and an expanding customer base. It is still unclear whether PEB will get a viable product (though I think this is more likely than not now) and then whether doctors will be happy to change to it. Anyone who held on to Xero or DIL (in the early days) know that it is expensive to grow sales rapidly. So even once they get their viable product on the shelf, the cash burn will still be high for years to come.

All comes down to market and investors' confidence.
Too many start-ups with promise and potential falter and fail because they run out of cash. Too greedy and/or naive, the promoters either want too much and/or come to the market too early.

The ones which go through to their potential tend to be well funded with realistic promoters and backers.

XRO and DIL are good examples of what happens when you get proper backers behind the company.

GEN and BLT are 'bad' examples of companies running out of cash.

With funding in place now and with backers like Masfen and Superlife, and revenues to flow from 2013 (assuming all goes to plan), I think PEB is more like DIL and XRO, than GEN or BLT.

Cash of $18m as at 30 June 2012 is plenty to last the company until 2015.

Meanwhile, Superlife buying on market tells you that this company does not see a need to do another placement anytime soon.

janner
02-11-2012, 07:52 PM
Thank you CJ.. Your knowledge is appreciated..

RRR
02-11-2012, 08:06 PM
I would stay away from this company. One trick pony this one is! And things change too quickly in the medical world. I wish them well.

Balance
03-11-2012, 07:17 AM
I would stay away from this company. One trick pony this one is! And things change too quickly in the medical world. I wish them well.


Obviously has not heard of Cochlear on ASX.

karen1
03-11-2012, 08:01 AM
The one trick pony comment required, for me, clarification, as there was none in the post by RRR, so a search provided me with the probable origin of the comment, and I found a good article from NBR on the first link in the list.

http://http://www.nbr.co.nz/tags/david-darling

I have followed this company for over a year, and recently took a small position. Yes, there is risk, but where in the market does one not take risk?

I am very interested to see where this company goes over the next few years, and wish a Kiwi company well.

Dubdee
03-11-2012, 11:23 AM
If the gain from sale is taxable as part of your compensation arrangments suggests that David gifting to the good old Family trust might be in order. No gift duty these days and any further share upside quarantined from tax?

zs_cecil
03-11-2012, 11:32 AM
If the gain from sale is taxable as part of your compensation arrangments suggests that David gifting to the good old Family trust might be in order. No gift duty these days and any further share upside quarantined from tax?
In terms of the announcement, David only sold small amount 7k+ of his own shares. The rest of them sold are belonging to his Tamaki Trust. So, I guess he has already avoid paying a lot of tax. Can anyone explain how the tax works for trustee?

zs_cecil
03-11-2012, 12:11 PM
No matter why CEO is selling his share, he would either sell it in a good time or a bad time. Of course he knows whether the company is or will be in the good time or the bad time. If he knew that the company is or will be in the bad time, he would probably risk himself to be suspected to do insider trading by selling his shares. However he is compeletedly legal to excise his share option. If he is selling his shares if he knew it is or will be the good time for the company, he might has just sold his shares in the right time in order to award himself. It might be less chance to put himself and the company under the scrutiny by the media if he sold his shares before the good time. For example, Rod Dury has done this once for his Xero. Again, it is his legal right to excise his options. We can not complain if he did it. If, he does not know whether the company will be in a good time or a bad time, we should be worried. He is just doing gambling on the company for everything including building the labs in the US. Once again, he is legal to exercise his options. :cool::cool::cool: Wish he did it before the good time. :t_up:

Dubdee
04-11-2012, 10:49 AM
It all hangs on whether the holding is on capital or revenue account. If they are part of Davids remuneration then the gain on sale is his income for tax purposes. So the ideal arrangement is to transfer them as close as possible to aquisition price to a family trust or some other entity. However this must be at market prices.

This minimises his gain for tax purposes. Then it comes down to the intent of thr trustees. In all likelyhood thay will have bought them for capital growth and I would expect the gains to be on capital account. However It must be clear that the trustees have not bought for the intention of resale or that they are traders ( unlikely). Even if they did buy for resale or acted as traders Trust income can be held as trustee income (taxable at 33%) or the income distrivuted to beneficiaries at their marginal tax rates. Certain restrictions apply to children

CJ
05-11-2012, 09:30 AM
"I had to draw down my options by December, so in order to do that I needed to draw some of them down, sell some of them, to pay for the balance.Mmm. The proof will be the final result. I am surprised he didn't just get bridging finance but maybe that was more difficult (or no one would offer).

binary
19-11-2012, 07:31 PM
Great breakdown of CXbladder compared to similar products for anybody interested

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=m7HNJhQjdwE

Balance
22-11-2012, 08:48 AM
Mmm. The proof will be the final result. I am surprised he didn't just get bridging finance but maybe that was more difficult (or no one would offer).

Reads like David Darling has done exactly as he said he would :

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/230069

He now holds in excess of 3m shares.

Any kind of financing over shares, especially one like PEB - impossible to obtain unless you pledge over your house and the family dog to the financier!

Balance
22-11-2012, 09:01 AM
Presumably Darling doesn't own 3m shares for kicks. He's going to be a rich man one day.

Let's hope so.

And deservedly so. He has put his life and soul into something which could save many many lives and give all young New Zealanders studying at Otago University something to really aspire to.

Bloody annoys me when I compare him to the tens of millions of fees and perks that the likes of PGC and Fisher Fund extract out of investors and New Zealanders for delivering bugger all.

My rant for the day.

barney
23-11-2012, 06:59 PM
The Mad Butcher's visit to Pacific Edge was covered by TV One News tonight. All good stuff. " NZ celebrity helps cancer cause."

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news

binary
30-11-2012, 05:48 AM
It's positive to see the half-yearly announcement has the company on track with growth expectations.

I'm expecting the next 12 months to be exciting for PEB.

barney
26-12-2012, 05:56 AM
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/240491/cancer-products-making-difference

Balance
26-12-2012, 06:48 AM
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/240491/cancer-products-making-difference

Well deserved recognition.

Congratulations to David Darling and his team.

The challenge now moves to the commercialization of the company's products.

emearg
27-12-2012, 07:51 AM
Chalkie also mentioned that it is better to have overpriced shares in a promising hi-tech company (I think he is talking about Xero) other than this company. This may hinted at the fact that companies like PEB are far more difficult to obtain the customers at the early stage of the product than the hi-tech company like Xero. I guess most of us have already understood this. But I think you are right, overprice is not a proper word for both companies because they just can't be valued for now. The best results for these companies which have a niche product is probably an acquisition by other companies at a high $$$$ value. :cool:

No he didn't.

He said "Still, it's better to have overpriced shares in a promising hi-tech company than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick."


Why do you infer he is making comparisons with other technology based companies?

emearg
27-12-2012, 11:40 AM
I have just started thinking about this stock today so go easy on me if my questions have already been covered on this thread. Apologies in advance!


Chalkies article says:
Bladderchek, for example, aims to spot high levels of a protein called NMP22, which is released from cancer cells into the urine. Used alongside cytoscopy, Bladderchek provides up to 99 per cent sensitivity, its makers claim.


On it's own Bladderchek isn't very useful finding only 38% of cancer cases.


Cxbladder detects 62% of cancer cases. Better but still not enough to rely on.


So my question is what sensitivity do Cxbladder and cytoscopy provide?


Is it higher than "up to 99% sensitivity"?


If not (and this is key to the following question) why will doctors use it? Dollar savings won't be enough when lives/law suits are on the line.

emearg
27-12-2012, 11:59 AM
I will do STC but I will be extra grateful if somebody wants to save me the trouble and answer my questions?

You trading or long term holding these STC?

Do you remember ICP Bio STC?

GR8DAY
27-12-2012, 12:18 PM
ALL YOUR ANSWERS HERE EMEARG..........hope that helps. Not only are their results outstanding BUT also their method of testing is without comparison. Ask yourself this simple question...." would your preference be to pee in a cup or to have something long and pointy inserted up and/or into your person?"........NO CONTEST!!


http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news/article/34

blobbles
27-12-2012, 04:55 PM
I am fully with STC on this, PEB is delivering a product that is innovative, better than the rest and its delivery method is considerably better than its predecessors. These are all the basics of reasons to invest in a company for growth. At the same time, they seem to have a strong IP to back this up, are building investment in foreign countries while the NZD is at all time highs and appear to be implementing their product commercialisation well.

For me, with the current information, there is only one way this stock will go over the next year... frankly I feel that it would take a lot of effort from them or a competitor for them to fail. Risky stock? I really don't see it as risky, I feel they are on the cusp of greatness, or a huge buyout from a big international.

On the softer side they are selling a product that can directly save lives through better detection of cancers. I have absolutely no problem in investing in a company that does this.

janner
27-12-2012, 07:58 PM
Would like to draw your attention to post 6..

Written some 7 years ago by Lizard.. It still has some relevance today..

Maybe they have finally cracked it..

barney
27-12-2012, 08:13 PM
At the annual shareholders meeting David Darling mentioned that they were working on some new deals. In Wednesdays ODT article he says that " into the new year, we will have more announcements." It looks like they are near to completing some new deals. This could be with urologists in the US or entry into other markets such as Europe or Asia,or both. Whatever, it looks like more good news to come.

blobbles
27-12-2012, 08:43 PM
And what happens if they grab more than 1% of the US bladder cancer diagnostic market?

My bet is this % will rise to greater than 25% pretty fast (1-2 years) once it becomes known their accuracy is higher and their product has is much more usable for patients... after all, what doctor would be wanting to use old technology that is horribly uncomfortable for patients and potentially less accurate? But that's just my guess/wish. After that point I suspect the competition might start to catch up, though if they have their IP in place, that might be difficult. The question, if my scenario comes to pass, which is highly optimistic, is whether they produce enough of their products to keep up with demand.

The other thing you didn't note STC is potential earnings from Europe as their Spanish lab comes online...

As I have said, I am highly optimistic about their chances, but I do feel that my optimism has some grounding in reality. If they can keep up, keep pushing their product, keep improving their product and keep their IP in place... they could be huge.

25% after 2 years would mean 187,500 tests * $800 = optimistic US income of $150 million @25% profit rate (I guess a margin lower than yours STC!) = $37.5 million.

Now, if their product is all that they claim (needs a few more, particularly large scale tests yet), my guess is they could grab 80% of the market in 5 years. That's what I mean by huge... it would translate to $100's of millions in profits.

janner
27-12-2012, 09:07 PM
HOWEVER - I note it is light volumes. It's the mum and dad punters rushing in. )

Nothing wrong with those mum and dad punters coming in Sparky..

They have taken a thrashing over the past 30 odd years.. Good to see them having learnt, and now regaining confidence in the market..

It is when the " Office Boy " comes is... etc..etc..

blobbles
27-12-2012, 09:15 PM
...
As I have said, I am highly optimistic about their chances...
...


I don't mind someone calling me for being over-optimistic here, most likely I am. There are a number of other players in the market who could be coming out with similarly accurate diagnostic tests. But PEB appears to be near enough to first to market with a product that is this accurate... if full scale tests and real world tests gives the accuracy they are saying is possible... then how can they go wrong?

Note that CxBladder, and other urine based tests are usually done (at the moment) in conjunction with invasive cystoscopy. Cystoscopy can then tell you virtually 100% if you have cancer or not through a biopsy. The incumbent at the moment for urine tests appears to be the Alere NMP22 BladderChek test but it is fairly innacurate. In addition the Mcm5 urine test is also out there, but has similar accuracy. Early indications are that CxBladder picks up all the cancers the these two pick up and many more, but a full scale testing regime is really required (I believe anyway...). Cytology is commonly used as well and is very accurate, more so than CxBladder, but (I assume) much more expensive and subjective. Cytology looks for abnormal cells in blood/urine using the Mark I eyeball i.e. through a microscope!

Oh yeah, some more tests include: immunocyt (claims are 87% accuracy with a combination of 2 tests so pretty good), BTA Tests (can be used at home, questionable), and UroVysion (I can't remember much about them, but the tests sounded pretty accurate). As such PEB won't have it easy, but if they get their execution right and keep improving their product, whose to say they won't be the incumbent in a few years time...

janner
27-12-2012, 09:30 PM
Hmmmm...

I am the most disbelieving person on Earth.. Craic would be the only one on this forum to understand me..

Hancocks started this site in 2005.. and has posted 19 times since..

Hancock !!.. Would you be willing to tell us about your holdings ??.. Including any Trusts etc. that you may have an interest in ??

janner
27-12-2012, 09:36 PM
That is holdings concerning PEB..

You are entitled to privacy on any other holdings :-)0

Dentie
28-12-2012, 02:55 PM
Big rise this morning following the Herald and ODT articles hyping Pacific Edge's 2013 fortunes. Great for the company, great for the shareprice, though I have to say its still a punt given there isn't any revenue yet - just the likelihood of revenue.

HOWEVER - I note it is light volumes. It's the mum and dad punters rushing in.

Was up 9c today, but now "only" up 6c after 1 hours trading.

"Fools buy in the morning, pros buy in the afternoon, junkies trade overnight!" (Josh Brown of www.thereformedbroker.com (http://www.thereformedbroker.com))

Hey Sparkie - hope you're enjoying the beach.

I'm more confused than ever now .... I applied your same informed logic around the lack of revenue for XRO - and hence didn't want to get tangled up with them when their share price was sitting at $2.00. As we've seen, they have since rushed along to $7.60 and I still cannot see any logical reason to get tangled up with them. They forecast losses to continue for the next 3 years, most of their shares are owned by their founders and they are fortunate to have other main shareholders who have lots of cash and deep pockets to keep funding themselves. Contrarily, I see a big future with PEB for lots of the logical investing reasons ... and none bigger than at least they should be able to fund their growth via the cash generated from their own operations.

PEB has done the hard graft and their shareholders have had faith, so now it is their turn to shine with agreat stable of products. Like others, $3.00 seems like a great first target.

skid
30-12-2012, 11:41 AM
It certainly looks like they have the product[especially in these days of medical budget blowouts.]
And it ticks the box as far as Kiwi companys we should be supporting.
I guess my big question now is do they have the marketing side of things sorted.
A good marketing- sales whiz on board would certainly help things happen.
Someone who can successfully show the world why they need this valuable product.
Someone who knows how to utilize international media,and knows their way around american medical politics,and even trade agreements
so we dont get another BLIS

barney
03-01-2013, 08:55 AM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/8137509/Bigger-KiwiSaver-a-market-boost

Good to see another fund manager investing in Pacific Edge.

The Grinch
03-01-2013, 09:13 AM
Interesting to see the shareprice jump this morning. Opened up 6c trading at the 59-60c range. Lets hope some good news is about to hit the market :)

GR8DAY
03-01-2013, 09:23 AM
...........might be the market "Darling" for 2013??

skid
03-01-2013, 03:43 PM
Well,it certainly has interest ATM .
There seems to be a bit of frenzy in the market in general so might let things cool down[?] and maybe have a serious look--just cant get rid of that nagging feeling that something is going to bring everything tumbling back down--America seems to be rolling the dice to often for my peace of mind.
In the old days you mostly just bet on the co. itself--now you have got to 2nd guess the market in general as well,which brings the lunatics across the water in to the mix.

binary
03-01-2013, 05:18 PM
Can anyone advise please what all the crazy small identical sales or purchases are i.e. 8 X 171 shares @ $0.58 and dozens of others? Doesn't make sense to me, but there is a reason I'm sure. Thanks much if you can help.

I think it's just an automated trading tool gone awol.

etrader
03-01-2013, 08:18 PM
I say follow the smart money you only need to look at 3 of the names on the top 20 and follow them and you will be presently surprised. I purchased 6 weeks ago and have topped up again - they have a true product at market with several more in development.
Dyor

biker
04-01-2013, 10:53 AM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/8137509/Bigger-KiwiSaver-a-market-boost

Good to see another fund manager investing in Pacific Edge.

Liked this bit...


Institutional funds took a long-term view and were generally supportive of and had an appetite for capital raising from shareholders.




Venture capitalists demanded fast and high returns and preferential rights in return for their investment.




"They will take a company to a funny place behind the bike sheds and do funny things to them in order to get their money out. They can pull it apart and sell its assets or sell it outside New Zealand. It can be destructive."

biker
04-01-2013, 10:58 AM
Missed the recent (speed) boat but will take the cruise liner for the medium/longer term and ease into a few at these levels. Quite like the sound of this company, especially based in the mainland, and Otago at that! ( in spite of the terrible history of several Dunedin based companies)

biker
04-01-2013, 12:12 PM
If the company can deliver on some modest revenue in the USA and Europe, you will probably double your money by the end of the year. Welcome aboard the Pacific Edge express!

Thanks STC, good to be here. ( at the moment! Could also halve by the end of the year if they don't get it right)

emearg
04-01-2013, 12:15 PM
If the company can deliver on some modest revenue in the USA and Europe, you will probably double your money by the end of the year. Welcome aboard the Pacific Edge express!

What do you consider modest? 1 million? 5 million? 20 million? What will be enough to bump the market cap to 330 million in your opinion?

emearg
05-01-2013, 10:12 AM
I refer you to my thoughts in post 176!

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2705-Pacific-Edge-Biotechnology&p=388715&viewfull=1#post388715

Maths are a little fuzzy, but reasonably indicative.

Thanks STC. I shall watch this one with interest over the coming months.

I certainly hope they make a success of it but I feel the company is too overvalued at this stage for me to buy into it. Should they demonstrate the ability to sell their product I will reconsider my position.

JohnnyTheHorse
05-01-2013, 11:31 AM
Thanks STC. I shall watch this one with interest over the coming months.

I certainly hope they make a success of it but I feel the company is too overvalued at this stage for me to buy into it. Should they demonstrate the ability to sell their product I will reconsider my position.

I see where you are coming from (everyone has differing tolerances to risk), however I don't feel it's overvalued, the market is simply factoring in future potential profits. Obviously the market is beginning to think that the chances of good profits is getting greater. Like STC said, it's an educated gamble. If they do get modest profits in the first year, then the current share price is an absolute steal. If they don't, then the current share price is overvaluing them. David Darling has said that he hopes to hit $100 million gross revenue in the fifth year (Obviously this may or may not happen, but is a good indication of their plans). Sure, it would have been nicer to buy in before the recent spike at 40c, or even 20c, but if you think they will make then your entry price doesn't matter... Think of the potential price in the future.

I'd say that the current boost in share price is due to a few possible reasons. PEB has been getting a lot of media attention lately, so it's likely a lot of people are becoming aware of the stock (lots of mum and dad investors, however I have seen quite a few very large buyers appearing in the last week or two). It's also likely that many people have done a bit of profit taking after a fantastic year and are looking for further investments. As a lot of blue chips are getting fully valued (there's still some good buys) it is likely they are looking for something which can provide good growth. It's also possible that news of agreements with Urologists have been leaked, however this would be purely speculative!

I believe PEB has a very good shot of making it. If they don't make it, I wont be disappointed that I invested in them. It is, in my eyes, a very worthy gamble.

Disclosure: PEB has become one of my largest holdings.

binary
05-01-2013, 12:01 PM
I see where you are coming from (everyone has differing tolerances to risk), however I don't feel it's overvalued, the market is simply factoring in future potential profits. Obviously the market is beginning to think that the chances of good profits is getting greater.

I would have to agree. It is difficult to value PEB because of the risk factors surrounding it, however at its current value the risk vs. reward is still low.

Using STC calculations a 1% market share in the U.S; which in my opinion is conservative, would double the current value of the company.

For a premium product with the highest rate of successful detection and at good value it would not be unrealistic to expect 10%+ market share over the next 2 years potentially creating $4+ stock.

Traders looking for a quick 10-20% have missed the boat however at 60c an investment with a long term view could reap massive gains.

Although emerag's approach is probably the best way to look at PEB for new investors in the company. I would suspect a lot of risk can be mitigated by waiting a few months for financial announcements on the state of sales, whilst still being able to pick up the stock under $1.

skid
05-01-2013, 12:43 PM
I,like most,wish this co. all the best .
Think Ill wait and see [like emerag]
Its certainly had a major run and I cant help but feel that the only difference between this co. now and 3 weeks ago,is market hype.
Mr market can be an emotional beast at times.
Good for the co.though.
One thing for sure,if they are succesful-NZ could do with more innovations like this.

GR8DAY
06-01-2013, 05:39 AM
Even if you were half right Sparky those are encouraraging returns/forecasts. PEB is also my largest holding .........and I mean "holding" in the true sense of the word. I have done a lot of trading over the years but I believe PEB is the perfect stock to sit on longterm. The growth prospects should be steady (if not spectacular) over the coming months and years and hopefully this will be reflected in the SPrice. I must admit I have been tempted to flick a few just of late but resisted the temptation for fear of not being able to repurchase and I see PEB as the sort of stock that could quite easily double in value overnight on the release of more good news........not worth the risk in my opinion!!

Dej
07-01-2013, 10:06 AM
Just some food for thought here.

PEB depends on the sale of its bladder cancer detection product to create revenue, and it’s in its preliminary stages of doing this now. My main concern with this is, this isn’t an over the counter/do it yourself test, it still has to be done at a clinic. I can see that some urologists will be upset with this product as it is taking profit out of their pockets as they no longer get to charge you for the 15 minute surgery that it usually takes. Sure, doctors are meant to act for the people, but at the end of the day they are also trying to run a business, and this is like direct competition.

Now, a saving grace of this is that most of the money that pays for this treatment/surgery will come from health insurance companies. They will always seek out the lowest cost alternative, so this is a point in favor of PEB. I wonder if insurance companies have actually looked into this, because if say Southern Cross was to recommend that a patient uses PEBs product rather than getting surgery, this will cause a big increase in sales, expecially in the states.

Will be interesting to see what motives the insurance companies have, as aforementioned with SPC, you could find that health insurance companies are run by urologists.

:p


Disc: Have my money elsewhere currently - but am concidering PEB

JimHickey
07-01-2013, 10:14 AM
I'd bet money they are/have been marketing directly to the insurance forms for some time. Know idea whats supporting this run, cant see it holding till march at these levels. What price/when are they likely to be included in the NZX50? Going by STC they are already there on price, what other criteria do they need to meet? E: how do you add paragraphs? lol. First time posting

winner69
07-01-2013, 10:24 AM
You know the markets are in for a boomer of a year when WID PED BLT and VIL are top of the leader board for the NZX ... all +10% or more (only ALF is missing from the star line up)

Dej
07-01-2013, 10:29 AM
I'm not sure that's quite right.

The mid stream urine test can be done anywhere - though I'm sure doctors will, where possible, insist on selling and processing the kit in their office and clinics under their supervision. In theory, this means in places like the USA, someone with bladder cancer in farmland Nebraska can have regular screening and updates back to them courtesy of Fedex. Distance would not be a tyranny to regular screening.

http://cxbladder.com/how_does_cxbladder_work



Sorry! just noticed it seems to hint that it has to be done through a clinic through words like "supplied to your clinician" and was just drawing a conclusion.

http://www.cxbladder.com/what_is_cxbladder_2

GR8DAY
07-01-2013, 11:45 AM
DAVID B.....not sure it's so much "irrational" buying as the realization that the technology developed here is "world Leading" and with that comes unknown potential growth prospects that might see PEB returning massive profits (if it all falls into place) AND in a relatively short time frame. A share price if $1.50 plus within a year is quite feasible in my opinion.......but let's leave the market (in all its fickleness) to decide that one. At the moment it appears the available information and clinical results are driving this "must own" mentality. I think they will be well rewarded with their current purchases. I have no complaints!

skid
07-01-2013, 01:11 PM
Boy ,its crazy out there today--not sure at this stage that Id want to have bought in @75 but its still up 13% from opening [68]

JohnnyTheHorse
07-01-2013, 04:07 PM
At this rate it will be 75c tomorrow. Not to worry...

You could quite well be right. Finished at 67 cents today, so not a bad effort. I keep thinking that the run will slow down, but it just keeps going! Will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days, not to mention the next few weeks. Will it go up or will it go down? I'd say it's anybody's guess really, impossible to tell.

GR8DAY
07-01-2013, 04:22 PM
Just an amazing ride!.........even the traders will be happy today......and the holders?........well they've gotta be even more happy.........about ANOTHER 2years of bank returns in just one day!!!

emearg
07-01-2013, 05:15 PM
Gosh the bubble is getting big isn't it!!?

If I owned any I would be selling now and waiting for the fall. I can't see the price holding at these levels until the next reporting period. And what if the news doesn't match expectations? Could be turbulent!

I wish you all the best, and I hope I am wrong but really??

GR8DAY
07-01-2013, 05:22 PM
PLENTY OF PROFITS TAKEN TODAY EMEARG AND STILL THE PRICE GETS A NEARLY 12% RE=RATING......onwards and upwards!!

JohnnyTheHorse
07-01-2013, 05:26 PM
It's just supply and demand. There are many long term holders who will see this recent rise in price as nothing compared to what they expect in a few years. The only people selling are the traders and the nervous, hence a large demand and little supply. If you sell now you may run the risk of it getting away from you. I don't really see the SP as a valuation of the company too much at this point, I'm associating it more with the perceived odds of success. Afterall, this is quite simply an educated gamble!

binary
07-01-2013, 05:31 PM
It's just supply and demand. There are many long term holders who will see this recent rise in price as nothing compared to what they expect in a few years. The only people selling are the traders and the nervous, hence a large demand and little supply. If you sell now you may run the risk of it getting away from you. I don't really see the SP as a valuation of the company too much at this point, I'm associating it more with the perceived odds of success. Afterall, this is quite simply an educated gamble!

I would have to agree. I see the long term prospects of PEB far greater than a quick profit. Let the nervous and traders take their profit whilst the rest enjoy the ride over the next few years.

JohnnyTheHorse
07-01-2013, 05:33 PM
Someone who bought in at 40-45c probably doesn't "believe" the PEB story like someone who bought in at half that price a year or more ago


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mYBSayCsH0

Dentie
08-01-2013, 07:17 AM
Gosh the bubble is getting big isn't it!!?

If I owned any I would be selling now and waiting for the fall. I can't see the price holding at these levels until the next reporting period. And what if the news doesn't match expectations? Could be turbulent!

I wish you all the best, and I hope I am wrong but really??


Sir, you've been sounding very nervous & negative ... and you don't appear to be holding any. Is it any wonder markets inexplicably crash? Have you any thoughts on XRO?

emearg
08-01-2013, 09:06 AM
Sir, you've been sounding very nervous & negative ... and you don't appear to be holding any.
I made it clear I don't have any so have no reason to be nervous. Negative? In the short term I'm not as positive sales will be as stellar as many posters here think. I have nothing to gain or lose financially by offering this opinion.


Have you any thoughts on XRO?
XRO currently has paying customers.

CJ
08-01-2013, 09:08 AM
Hancocks - what is the cost of those tests compared to CxB which I think from reading above is about $1k (??) and is done monthly (??).

Disc: Not a holder as haven't researched enough but PEB does seem to be one of the interesting stocks for 2013.

Dej
08-01-2013, 09:32 AM
I agree with SPC.

Just a question to those who are wiser than me. Is it possible for a takeover? I dont know what term would be, but big companies such as Merck will frequently buy out companies/IP like this to have their product, is this possible in PEBs case?

I know for a fact that companies like MSD have whole divisions responsible for researching companies like PEB.

Dentie
08-01-2013, 09:54 AM
I'd make a few points thus:

- PEB is out to make a profit from the moment they are commercialised (EG, later this year)- they have the margins which means if the product sells sufficiently, they will make money. Conversely XRO's product is sold at a loss on purpose in order to grow marketshare. They do not yet have a timeframe for profitability, though they are clearly comfortable about buying marketshare for the time being.

- Markets do not inexplicably crash. They crash because share price valuations bear no relationship to earnings potential, and because people have been speculating on a large number of share prices going up, rather than investing in those companies' ability to earn in relation to their shareprice. They crash because people who do understand the correlation between price and value sell out, triggering panic amongst those who don't understand.

- In my opinion, it would be risky to hold both XRO and PEB, since they both have share prices that do not reflect actual earnings, but rather, the potential for future earnings. In the case of Xero, this means pushing up prices and reducing their cost structure, in the case of PEB, the ability for their product to foot it against older but more established diagnostic tests in key markets like USA and Europe. Holding both these stocks in large numbers would suggest you have an enormous appetite for risk!

- The time to be nervous about PEB is not now, but in around 6-9 months. It is then that PEB will need to have given indications as to whether US based urologists are going to use CxBladder or whether they are struggling with take-up. As mentioned above, someone who bought in around 20c should be feeling very comfortable. Someone who bought in at 45c would be considering the quick 50% paper profits in selling now, and someone who is buying at today's prices has the most to lose with the likelihood of maybe only doubling their money versus 75% losses over the next 12 months, and would either be someone very certain about PEBs prospects, or very clueless about the risk, or is curing their horse racing addiction with a speculative stock habit.

Thanks for your learned remarks Sparky - (& other contributors!!), it is much appreciated.

skid
08-01-2013, 10:12 AM
Do not underestimate the ability of the American Medical system to do absolutely stupid things for purely political reasons-There are plenty of inferior tests being used as we speak,for reasons that dont put patients first.

Dej
08-01-2013, 10:14 AM
Do not underestimate the ability of the American Medical system to do absolutely stupid things for purely political reasons-There are plenty of inferior tests being used as we speak,for reasons that dont put patients first.

Meaning you think that there is a chance the Americans may not pick up on this? Sorry if I interpreted wrong

skid
08-01-2013, 10:42 AM
No im simply saying its not a given.
The politics in America are mind boggling. There are lobbyists in the medical community that wield huge influence on what actually happens.
All it takes is someone connected to the inferior product ,who is also in a position of power,especially in terms of the large insurance contracts to keep a better product from getting a foothold.
America is rife with conflict of interest situations--a bit like the past vice president [Chaney]being on the board of Halliburton[builds military bases] while being involved with making decisions on going to war.
The military and Pharmaceutical-medical, are the 2 big ones.
Im not saying this is definitely the case ,but in light of the speculative nature of whats been happening in the last 3 weeks with the share price,its one more thing to put into the mix when determining your appetite for risk.

Dej
08-01-2013, 10:43 AM
Really? So no medical ethics, no integrity and no personal responsibility, is that what you are saying about the American medical system?

I do think some big private American practises act more like a business than NZ ones (eg maximising profit if they can), but not to that extreme.

But hey, Im not American so how would I know :p

skid
08-01-2013, 11:15 AM
Dont get me wrong-Im not tearing down the co. or product.
But it doesnt hurt to research your market.

Google--medical corruption in America---

-Again ,Im not saying this is what is going to happen
but it doesnt hurt to know as much as possible about the market as well as the product and co.
Its an exciting co. and Im hoping that they have someone on board that knows there way around the American market

barney
08-01-2013, 06:05 PM
In regards to the medical profession in the US taking up Cxbladder, I think it's worth noting that Pacific Edge has been doing ground work in the US for several years. Therefore, they must be reasonably confident that the technology is going to be adopted in numbers good enough to make it financially worthwhile. This is from the last annual report : " During the year the company has signed a key customer in the US who has evaluated in excess of 60 tests in a formal clinical setting."

So come March, I don't think they will be kicking off from a standing start.

The company also aims to offer urologists and doctors a service that can provide multiple tests. They hope to have the bladder cancer prognostic test available within a year of entering the US and they are also working on developing a third test. So in time I guess the aim will be to offer a one stop shop kind of service.

skid
09-01-2013, 07:38 AM
I see that cxbladder received regulatory registration in Austraila,in June 2011.
They stated it was a key market as it would allow them to start generating revenue.
Does anyone know if any figures have been released showing how much revenue has been generated to date?
I suppose this is a good trial run for the bigger US market.

skid
09-01-2013, 08:01 AM
As an aside, think of how the US pharmaceuticals would want Pharmac to be dismantled as a part of any free trade agreement. While I love the idea of NZ farmers having near to unfettered access to the USA, I'm not sure I'd want significant parts of NZ's population without access to cheaper, mass subsidised generic medicines. And I consider myself a regular National-ACT voter.[/QUOTE]

Totally agree--In my opinion ,a free trade agreement with the states would be a disaster.
I think alot of people have misssed the fact that the trade off for a few more jobs is to have life as we know it ''messed around with''in the international courts.
It would give access to some pretty unsavory corporations to an element of control of our way of life .
Pharmac is only the first in line.
Im sure you have all seen the ridiculous tv commercial blitz by the American tobacco co.s to ''protect their brand''[at the expense of thousands of lives]==a free trade agreement would give that kind of mentality real teeth.

EAGLE
10-01-2013, 04:03 PM
I rang Labtests AKL, looks like it has not started doing the test (not 100% sure)? PEB signed an agreement with Labtests in Mar. 2012, but it is available on Australia's Healthscope's website.

skid
10-01-2013, 04:39 PM
Guess its a bit early to see if its ''paying the bills'' over there in OZ

GR8DAY
15-01-2013, 03:24 PM
.......lets hope this latest little run is a bit more controlled AND sustainable???! Steady as she goes please, Ive got some serious money riding on PEB and all Im looking for is a gentle climb to around the $1.50 mark.........that should get me the 45' launch I need.........YES THATS "NEED" DEAR! N____E___E___D! Ive got about 22' already but nowhere to put the twin engines yet DEAR...........yes I love you too.

GR8DAY
15-01-2013, 07:10 PM
......more than happy to ride this wave for now Sparky but I really do want to Weigh Anchor and head offshore for a bit. Might just have to be a little bit patient but I have every confidence Mr Darling and the team are doing this all the right way and things will start to seriously happen over the next few months.......here's hoping. This story has been a longtime in the making but I do believe we are just into the early chapters for PACIFIC EDGE......bladder cancer diagnosis is just going to be the foundation product of our company and I dont doubt for a minute that many more worthwhile (and hopefully profitable) similar products will make it to market also.

JohnnyTheHorse
16-01-2013, 09:05 AM
Continuing upwards again this morning, albeit on small volume at this stage.

GR8DAY
16-01-2013, 09:45 AM
.....NOT SURE IF IVE DONE THIS RIGHT, BUT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE NOT SEEN OUR CEO EXPLAINING PEB THIS LINK IS PRETTY EXCITING......AND FOR THOSE OF US WHO HAVE SEEN IT B4.......JUST A REMINDER!

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about_us#video

GR8DAY
16-01-2013, 10:47 AM
.......AND those "thinking" about becoming investors. Two years old or not Sparky tis still a relevant reminder of PEBs vision and foundation. I don't think we will be waiting too long now for the hard data to start filtering thru.......better get ready with some more cash to buy when it does!! (providing it's all positive of course)

JohnnyTheHorse
16-01-2013, 11:05 AM
better get ready with some more cash to buy when it does!! (providing it's all positive of course)

Totally agree. I'm already overweight in PEB for the time being, so have restricted myself to not buying more until positive sales figures are released.

GRIFFIN
16-01-2013, 11:59 AM
Surely the sales figures are going to be positive and PEB has a bright future, isn't that why the share price has increased so much recently.

JohnnyTheHorse
16-01-2013, 12:11 PM
They may not be positive, it's still a gamble at this point (a gamble which in my eyes is well worth the risk). No one really has a certain idea of what the sales will be like in the US.

GR8DAY
16-01-2013, 01:19 PM
.......it is all going to depend on the "rate" of uptake I guess. They know the industry and would have thoroughly researched both the potential and "probable" market. They have gone into the US market with their eyes wide open. The sales WILL be there but we'll just have to wait and see how good their marketing strategies are. Im picking this could actually be the easy part (in comparison to what they have already achieved).....word of this KIWI development would have spread far and wide (and quickly) through the Urology industry already. I would expect sales to become exponential in a fairly short time frame (months not years), because of the nature of a specialist industry like this.

JohnnyTheHorse
16-01-2013, 01:43 PM
I tend to agree with you. I expect that they would have already been working on contracts for some months, so sales may be quite good from the start. It still isn't a certain thing though, but time will tell!

skid
17-01-2013, 07:07 AM
They've already been up and running in Australia since last June.
Where are the sales Figures?
This to me ,is the perfect trial run,and everyone seems to be ignoring it.
Lets see some solid data.

Slam dunk
17-01-2013, 07:20 AM
They've already been up and running in Australia since last June.
Where are the sales Figures?
This to me ,is the perfect trial run,and everyone seems to be ignoring it.
Lets see some solid data.

Agree with you Skid, that's an out-standing question in my mind. The other one is how does the Cxbladder test compare to the price of cytology and NPM22 (it's competitors)? Not interested so much in the comparison to cystology as Cxbladder is an adjunct to that, but very interested in how it compares in price to the two products it intends to replace. We've been told the Cxbladder test will be US$800 but no information I've seen on the cost of competitor tests.

skid
17-01-2013, 08:40 AM
Not sure im understanding you.
Are you saying that by not letting us know how their product is doing in Australia,they are protecting their technology and market position?
Australia is the first real indicator[to us fickle investors]of how this product really stacks up.
lets hope it is successful,but with respect,most recent posts are simply saying ''hooray for our team''[not to say this wont effect the share price]
There will be plenty of time for that if the facts back up the goods.

GR8DAY
17-01-2013, 08:46 AM
.....Agree Hancock, we've got the usual nonsense going on with the traders picking up the ball and dropping it just as quick to make some easy weekly money......but then that's the nature (and process) of being publicly listed. What I am liking is the general UP-trend in the SP even with all this trading going on......lets hope it continues.
They are taking a risk in my opinion of being caught short and re-entering on any volume. An interesting, exciting and ethical stock to be involved in. The more I research the company the more I throw at it!!

skid
17-01-2013, 09:12 AM
gr8day
Agree,its interesting and exciting and ethical.
Id be very interested to hear what new info your research has uncovered in the last month since the share price has gone from 41 to 67.
I like the co. Ive just got reservations about the nature of the share buying.
The last month has not been a general uptrend--its been a major uptrend,the kind you normally get with important news.
If and when that news comes,Im sure alot of the more cautious investors will jump on board as well.

skid
17-01-2013, 09:27 AM
Hancock,
It may well be to soon for any meaningful sales figures,but it will certainly be helpful when they do come out.
Guess my point is that lots of posters are fixed only on the US market as if the Australian market does not exist.
Its still an important market .They have obviously put alot of energy gaining access to it and more importantly,it will be a benchmark on how the product is going.
If initial figures are optimistic,I cant see how it would be anything but good for the co.
if ,however they are disappointing ,then it could have an effect equal to the last months rise-even though it could still be a progressively profitable co. in the longer term.

skid
17-01-2013, 09:29 AM
I think its still listed as PEB on the NZX

GR8DAY
17-01-2013, 09:29 AM
hi SKID.....I presume what has been driving the recent price spike is just the growing national and international awareness of PEB and the unfolding story about to be unleashed on the worlds largest market (USA).......the new investors are buying into this potential........and good on them for doing so. Personally I would be very cautious about being cautious on this stock at the moment. I also like the on-going potential of PEB beyond CxBladder........have a read about the Gastric cancer side of things, this may well be way bigger than CxBladder IF they can crack the Japanese/Asian markets.........many patents in place already for this.

skid
17-01-2013, 09:35 AM
Thanks for the warning, but I personally feel there will still be room for growth when or if we get more news,but best of luck to those that jump in now,and lets hope your right for those gastric cancer patients!

noodles
24-01-2013, 10:23 AM
Ouch, correction and consolidation time for PEB. All technicals pointing downwards, watch out below!

Anyone have a target or buy in price?

50c Target based on previous resistance? I wouldn't panic sell yet until it falls below 60c.

Still definitely worth watching.

Dej
24-01-2013, 10:46 AM
I'm not holding so definitely not panicking ;)

Yes, definitely very high on my watchlist, just a matter of timing it perfectly now for a buy-in!

So what price you thinking of buying in at? Mid-50s would be my guess, unless there is a change in trend.

GR8DAY
24-01-2013, 11:14 AM
.......you might just be right, buyers getting a bit thin on the ground now?

croesus
24-01-2013, 11:15 AM
If 56c goes.. high 40c maybe 47c/45c..... needs good news... which may be a while, if we get in different news... back to support in the 20 s.

croesus
24-01-2013, 11:57 AM
Well said Moosie..... PEB and BLT both.

skid
25-01-2013, 11:01 AM
Still a long way to go to 53 but I will be watching with interest.[does kind of shoot holes in the ''I would be cautious about being cautious about this stock at the moment'' theory though ATM.
This may be a minor blip,or possibly the other side of the coin.
Its really a matter of investors sentiment on this company UNTIL we finally get news

GR8DAY
25-01-2013, 11:34 AM
.......yes agree skid, there "appears" to be stronger support around the 60c than I would have thought.........I too was picking them to go lower than this by now. Still holding and may have to gather a few more around these levels.......a stock I wouldnt want to NOT have in my portfolio at the moment. We should be getting some positive feedback re: commisioning of US clinic anytime soon and that may kick things along once again.

skid
25-01-2013, 11:50 AM
It is however ,just as far back to 68 as it is down to 53--until theres news ,its a spec play

GR8DAY
25-01-2013, 12:11 PM
.......yes, and those who sold out at 45c will be feeling even more foolish b'cos they are no longer "in with a chance" and missed out on some serious profits by either holding or trading TOO SOON. YOU'VE GOTTA B IN 2 WIN SPARKY.!!

GR8DAY
25-01-2013, 01:15 PM
.......AND YOU LIKE MANY OF US SPARKY WOULD THEREFORE HAVE NO REASON TO THINK ABOUT SELLING.........may the upward swing continue. Here's to some more good news!!

GR8DAY
25-01-2013, 01:28 PM
.........and some of us do both Moosie......wink wink (sorry cant find those pretty pictures you put up??)

GR8DAY
25-01-2013, 01:40 PM
.......hey forgot to mention THE REAL GOOD NEWS............bagged 18 nice fat snapper before 7.30 am this morning (me and a mate)......straylining Tauranga Harbour......what a glorious city and country we live in!!!

GR8DAY
25-01-2013, 01:46 PM
.....cheers BIG EARS .......(sorry Moosie had to say it!!!) .........."say gidday how are ya M8" to all ya little friends.

skid
26-01-2013, 07:19 AM
So its finished on 60
Im no chartist but that seems like a psychological point to me.
It will be interesting to see what happens if it breaks 60 on the down side.

binary
26-01-2013, 09:58 AM
See you at $8 in 2015 then... :-)

That's abit pessimistic don't you think.

skid
27-01-2013, 07:22 AM
Hi Hancock,
Im not making a value judgement on those potential sellers[in terms of being astute or clever]but there are two sides to every coin and there is a possibility that things got a bit carried away in the recent [speculative?]
share price ascent[I think we were both surprised at the climb]
If it does fall,it doesnt mean its a bad product or co.
I believe it would be more an issue of falling back to its true value ATM[with no additional news]
That small percentage that make the price volitile you speak of ,have brought the share price from 40 to 60 cents. Its certainly possible for the reverse to happen to back in the 50s.
Even the most astute and long term supporters are not rushing to buy more at these levels.

Balance
27-01-2013, 09:09 AM
Hi Hancock,
Im not making a value judgement on those potential sellers[in terms of being astute or clever]but there are two sides to every coin and there is a possibility that things got a bit carried away in the recent [speculative?]
share price ascent[I think we were both surprised at the climb]
If it does fall,it doesnt mean its a bad product or co.
I believe it would be more an issue of falling back to its true value ATM[with no additional news]
That small percentage that make the price volitile you speak of ,have brought the share price from 40 to 60 cents. Its certainly possible for the reverse to happen to back in the 50s.
Even the most astute and long term supporters are not rushing to buy more at these levels.



What would be of concern is if some 'insiders' (and I do not mean insider trading but doctors, consultants, suppliers etc) were buying on the way up (because they knew something) but then, reverse sell because things have turned pear shaped.

I do not think that is the case.

GR8DAY
27-01-2013, 10:04 AM
.......no I dont think so either Balance. I believe what we have here is a very genuine company, run by intelligent people, PRODUCING something that the world could do with. PEB appears to be well managed and well supported (including a few "name" individuals)..........pretty much all the hard ground work has been done and we now wait for the product(s) to proove themselves in the real world. I have zero doubt their business model will also perform well because it must have been a simple maths test to proove it will be profitable.......there can't be too many variables to have to factor in? If competition enters this market also I don't think that will neccasarily be a bad thing either.......the more awareness out there of this technology means Bio Markers will then become the benchmark....the "norm". I expect this to happen at a good pace.........but yes fingers are still a little bit crossed for now. Really looking forward to the next few months with the opening of the USA clinic......shouldnt be far off now.

skid
28-01-2013, 08:32 AM
Australia?

skid
28-01-2013, 08:45 AM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/7884608/Ingenuity-at-sharp-end-of-cancer-diagnosis

GR8DAY
28-01-2013, 09:17 AM
............."poke in the eye with a sharp stick"...LOL Chalkie!!

skid
28-01-2013, 01:35 PM
See posts 123 onwards.
Sorry,..bit slow on the draw there..

barney
02-02-2013, 11:20 AM
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news/article/38

http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/news/article/39

A couple interesting new videos from the PEB website, especially the one on the potential of the military market.

karen1
02-02-2013, 02:04 PM
Thanks for those links barney, I enjoyed both. Great to hear David Darling talk about the urologist in NJ who has been using the product for 6 months and is now writing a paper for presentation.

The market in the States alone is huge, DOD, Veterans Affairs, holders should be well pleased with the way PEB has taken deliberate and measured steps from day one, and continues to do so.

Makes one want to top up.

blobbles
02-02-2013, 03:30 PM
Some good info in there.

The Pennsylvania lab is set up to make and process up to 260k CxBladder tests every year. Thats a whopping amount! I assume they have gauged the market and have planned for reaching capacity only in say 5 years...

So imagine they got to half that in two or three years, depending on the uptake and using Sparky's previous figures...

130,000 tests @ US $800 a pop... translates to revenue of USD $104 million. That's not bad. Now what's their profit margin?

And what if they operate at capacity? 208 million... @ Sparkys estimate of 50% profit... 104 million profit... just how long it would take to reach this though is anyones guess. And remember, at capacity, that only still represents around 30% of the market!

That's the hard numbers. What is really important though, obviously, is uptake by the industry. But, they have a product that should sell itself based on its results.

With what appears to be good management taking cautious but optimistic steps, I cannot see how they can fail. Right now, if I was a big healthcare provider and based on current SP prices and future potential, these guys are a great takeover oppourtunity. But lets keep that on the down-low because it they offered now the price might be $1.50, whereas in a couple of years, I am picking their SP to be in the $3-4 mark or more.

Great company. Great product. Great oppourtunity. Cheap shareprice.

I am obviously a holder because my opinion is that you would be silly not to be!

skid
03-02-2013, 07:44 AM
In terms of uptake--What you will want to see now is good uptake numbers in Australia where it has been on the market since June.
This will be the first indication of how the product is received.
If these numbers are good then thats a good indication of how things will go in the states.
We can say whatever we like about the product,but as far as the market goes,until we see some numbers from its initial launch in Australia,then as far as the states goes ,its blind faith at this stage.

binary
03-02-2013, 09:22 AM
Blobbies, a couple of points.

1. I suspect the growth required to have Hershey running at maximum would take 5-8 years, if cxBladder alone is their product.
2. CxColorectal will be ready for showtime in the next year or two.
3. They can fail because of external forces, like the highly politicised world of health in the USA.
4. They are a takeover opportunity when they start to eat into marketshare, until then, they are just a patent warehouse which a healthcare company could pick over the bones should PEB fail.

The risks are greater than you let on. If uptake is slow, then the share price will drop to 30c. They will likely be bought out by a health company who knows how to market products for a pittance

BUT, the rewards are huge should they deliver. Your share price will be more like $6 or $8 if they can manage the kind of earnings with multiple diagnostic products I think they are capable of.

Remember - it's not just CxBladder, but a whole suite of cancer diagnostic tests based on their patented technology.


I would tend to agree, the way I see it PEB's biggest hurdle is convincing the U.S insurance companies to pay for the use of their product.

The product is proven to work and is a market leader however if the insurance companies shun the product the share price will dive and PEB
will have to focus on another market, which would add a few more years before investors were to see returns.

In saying that on the balance of probabilities cxbladder should begin to significantly start eating into market share come march and I think we
are all onto a winner.

karen1
03-02-2013, 11:44 AM
[QUOTE=SparkyTheClown;392196]I It is urologists who may need to grapple with a product that costs less (and therefore worry they may not make as much money). profit margin the QUOTE]

Hopefully the New Jersey urologist who is currently writing a paper to go to the AUA will spark some interest amongst his peers, and being in print in the American Journal of Urology will undoubtedly encourage sales.

I sincerely hope your fear re costs is unfounded, although of course today medicine is much more about $$ than it is the patients.

karen1
03-02-2013, 12:10 PM
[QUOTE=karen1;392197]


Not unfounded sadly. It's a real threat, but it is balanced by the fact that powerful health insurance companies and litigious patients will force a market solution to use a better product, even if it is possibly cheaper, annoying the urologist trying to maximise profits.

It is the politics that scare me the most. Lobbyists in the health sector could sew fear and uncertainty with politicians and media, causing a PR headache. That gives urologists a reason to not use the product - "because there are too many uncertainties, and Mr Jones, you deserve certainty when I care for you as you face this awful cancer challenge".

Yes of course, it is a real threat, as is any (particularly) medical associated venture in the US. I do feel though that PEB are taking small steps with major care and caution, and have hope that they will win out by their guarded entry into the States. Lobbyists? Q: What’s the difference between a shame and a pity?
A: If a busload of Lobbyists goes over a cliff, and there are no survivors, that’s known as a pity. If there were any empty seats, that’s a shame.

And Hancocks has just made a good point re health conscious people. I think Sir Peter Leitch, aka the Mad Butcher, would have done much to put the CX Bladder test on the radar of many in NZ.

blobbles
03-02-2013, 02:40 PM
Thanks for that Sparky, my eternal optimism sometimes needs dampening back to reality! I agree now, its not all plain sailing, but you have to like their chances :-)

lastmoa
05-02-2013, 08:03 AM
Any idea when we can expect to see numbers from Australia? Agree, it does seem to be the best indicator.
I was a holder of PEB and currently looking out for another entry point.

barney
06-02-2013, 10:07 AM
Hopefully a good sign.

http://www.seek.co.nz/Job/laboratory-technologist-technician/in/otago-dunedin/23892952

GR8DAY
06-02-2013, 10:59 AM
yea good work Barney.......any Science Graduates out there?.......might be a good source of some "inside info"??

Balance
06-02-2013, 01:51 PM
Here is a download from Healthscope that gives a good idea of the 'easy' marketing and makes good reading.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=30&ved=0CF0QFjAJOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.healthscopepathology.com.au%2 Findex.php%2Fdownload_file%2Fview%2F377%2F321%2F&ei=eagRUdaZEfCWiQfxnoH4Bw&usg=AFQjCNEyWnAXEI_dzm3o1EcMkjA5MfYknA&sig2=CCVZZ8k6aCOocfpfIsxNng

Good stuff, Hancocks!

Dej
12-02-2013, 06:06 PM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2086763/Cancer-cure-High-school-student-Angela-Zhang-devised-cure-cancer.html#axzz2Kf7AzqVD

Amazing young girl - makes me think I mis-spent my youth :eek2:

Dej
14-02-2013, 10:20 AM
Looks like a floor forming there, but I think someone can wait a bit longer and pick it up cheaper...

Not if any good news is to be released? We are waiting on information about the USA lab/plant they are setting up - surely that will be a SP motivator.

emearg
14-02-2013, 10:57 AM
Now at 60c, that represents a cheaper entry point for this company.

I firmly maintain this company will be successful, it is just a matter of whether is only reasonably successful or VERY successful.

A lot of people thought this about Blis too. The question is are people buying the products? In PEB's case tests. Where are the sales from Aussi? Why aren't investors focusing on the sales results from Aussi rather than waiting for the USA to flow through?

I would love this company to succeed! I would like you to make a packet STC. You can take me out for a coffee and a Blis K12 icecream. But until they start selling it is not a sure thing. Not at all.

Should sales flow through I will buy in. Until then it is just a gamble based on potential. Been there done that...

JohnnyTheHorse
14-02-2013, 11:05 AM
Yes it will, but how long will it take? I've been waiting for an announcement on colorectal since I looked at their website and they said one was due "late 2012". Could be waiting awhile, and in the mean time it could slowly drift southward. That downtrend is still in place...

2-3 weeks until the lab opening announcement I would imagine. They are reportedly on track for opening the lab at the beginning of March.

JohnnyTheHorse
14-02-2013, 11:23 AM
Just stumbled across this which may be of interest:

Cellmid moves closer to royalty revenues in 2H 2013 - Proactive ... (http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=cxbladder&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CDAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.proactiveinvestors.co.uk%2Fco mpanies%2Fpdf%2F53608%2Fcellmid-moves-closer-to-royalty-revenues-in-2h-2013-53608.html&ei=dh4cUcDsKqb9iQKh-YGAAQ&usg=AFQjCNEGVkAuZ_3zXdJOp1sFmfjKKlPFeA&bvm=bv.42452523,d.cGE)




Cellmid has a non-exclusive licence agreement with Pacific Edge Biotechnology (NZSX: PEB) for the use of MK technology in their Cxbladder test that is expected to launch in mid-2013.
The test provides a cost effective and non-invasive method to more accurately identify the presence of bladder cancer when compared to current testing methods.
The bladder cancer test has been certified for use in Australasia and Spain, and is CLIA certified for the US market.
The Australasian market is fairly small with 50,000 60,000 tests for bladder cancer completed each year. By comparison, the U.S. market is much larger with approximately 1 million patients and generates 1.8 million tests each year.
The test will cost approximately $550 and assuming a 5% penetration rate within 5 years will generate approximately 90,000 tests per year for a total of $49.5M.
Cellmid will collect milestone payments and royalties of ~1.5% for an annualised return of $743,000 in the fifth year.

Slam dunk
14-02-2013, 01:35 PM
Just stumbled across this which may be of interest:

Cellmid moves closer to royalty revenues in 2H 2013 - Proactive ... (http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=cxbladder&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CDAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.proactiveinvestors.co.uk%2Fco mpanies%2Fpdf%2F53608%2Fcellmid-moves-closer-to-royalty-revenues-in-2h-2013-53608.html&ei=dh4cUcDsKqb9iQKh-YGAAQ&usg=AFQjCNEGVkAuZ_3zXdJOp1sFmfjKKlPFeA&bvm=bv.42452523,d.cGE)


I thought CXbladder already had launched?

skid
16-02-2013, 08:18 AM
Launched in OZ in June--no news yet--that 60 cent resistance is proving to be rather stubborn.
I think we could call it rangebound ATM

GR8DAY
16-02-2013, 08:51 AM
........I think we'll see a series of announcements in the coming weeks/ months. I expect the SP to go through the roof accorgdingly.......providing it's all good news of course!!! DONT BE CAUGHT NOT HOLDING THEM is my advice BUT as per usual DYOR!

Balance
19-02-2013, 02:44 PM
Looks like the downtrend continues. Bidders and askers both slacking off. This is going to level off around the 58 mark until we get another announcement.

Anyone have any idea what's going on with colorectal? Still no announcements or hints...

Relax.

I bought this share at 25 cents, saw it rose to 30 cents, and then fell back to 18 cents! Does not make me happy but that's the market, eager for news on a stock which holds great promise.

From 18 cents, it rose and rose and rose all the way to 75 cents.

Now it is retracing back to maybe 55 cents.

If you are a trader, it's a worry.

If you believe in the story, take the sp movements and gyrations as part of the story!

GR8DAY
19-02-2013, 03:21 PM
QUOTE=Balance;394007]Relax.

I bought this share at 25 cents, saw it rose to 30 cents, and then fell back to 18 cents! Does not make me happy but that's the market, eager for news on a stock which holds great promise.

From 18 cents, it rose and rose and rose all the way to 75 cents.

Now it is retracing back to maybe 55 cents.

If you are a trader, it's a worry.

If you believe in the story, take the sp movements and gyrations as part of the story![/QUOTE]


Agree NOT looking good for traders at the moment Balance.....this stock could go anywhere at the moment but definitely looking like it's heading south for the time being? What a P#*&K of a day Ive had in the COMP.....must have gone from about 8th place to dead last I reckon, what with BLIS,WDT, OGC and now PEB in serious negative territory I must be DEAD LAST!! (at least Ive got some REAL money riding on Telecom!)

barney
19-02-2013, 03:28 PM
I would'nt be expecting too much in the way of revenue growth in the next results announcement. The Australasian market is reasonably small, estimated at around $6m potentially and it will take some time to build up. David Darling has already mentioned that they are working on some new deals and that there will be some new announcements this year. These could involve entry into new markets or some US deals. These and the announcement, hopefully, regarding approval to operate in the US is what will likely give the shareprice a boost.

As far as Cxcolorectal goes, I think they are working on some technical stuff around trying to make the test easier for clinicains to use and to also reduce the cost.