Nickel - Major Correction, where to next ?

[tricha]

SEC - "I love it when a stock goes ex div yet the price surges. Both MCR and IGO ex div 6c today, not that the buyers noticed!"

Got to admit I didn't notice myself.

Bought 10,000 IGO today, ouch! $48,400

Why, did the comparision thing.

IGO 113 million shares. 34 cents half year earning per share on a below par tonnage.(tonnage this quarter should be way up)

MCR 197 million shares. 19 cents half year earnings per share.

The long awaited South decline now complete and if they strike what they think they should, watch this space ..................High grade low cost, increased tonnage! ( visited the start of this decline nearly 2 years ago )

SEC - "The market is basically valuing IGO's 30% share in the Tropicana gold deposit (est 3 million ounces) at zero. This can't last."

Have to agree you SEC on this one. This is a magnificant orebody![:p]

[Zephyrus]

Well, LionOre Mining (LIM) just managed to beat my forecast with NPAT of A$540 million (US$428) for FY 2006.

Sitting on a PE of 7.4 at the moment, but at todays nickel price, and forecast nickel production, their prospective
PE for FY 2007 is about half that.

Will be an interesting day tomorrow as the results were released after-market in Toronto, so, todays gain on
the ASX only reflects yesterday's gain on the TSX.


quote:Originally posted by Zephyrus

Has anybody looked into Lion Ore Mining (LIM)?

As far as I can tell, they're potentially on a lower PE than MCR, and with huge upside in development.

My rough calcs suggest a PE of 6.6 for 2006.

Q1 = US$13.2
Q2 = US$62
Q3 = US$148.1

Based on Q3 profit of 148 minus 25 (one-off) divided by 7812 (tonnes of payable nickel for Q3) multiplied by 12548 (anticipated tonnes of payable nickel for Q4), I get a profit of around US$200 for Q4. I would assume the average price received in Q4 is higher than Q3 but have not included that in my calcs.

Therefore, if my calcs are reasonable, we should have a 2006 profit of around A$530 million (at an exchange rate of 0.8) and a PE of 6.6 (with MC at A$3.5 billion).

Also, they're planning to boost their output to 80,000 tonnes plus per annum in years to come.

Cheers,
Z.

[Zephyrus]

From Metals Place:

While a major decline in the Chinese Stock Market on Tuesday put pressure on metal prices given the country's huge consumption, Beijing is likely trying to slow down its economy, not halt it altogether.

As a result, many continue to expect that demand for metals will have no difficulty outstripping supply in the near term.

One commodity where this appears to hold true is for nickel.

Strong growth forecasts for stainless steel production in China and expectations that demand for nickel will outstrip supply through 2008, has led Desjardins Securities to raise its average price forecast on the metal to US$16 per pound in 2007 and 2008, from US$13.

Nickel prices renewed their upward momentum in September 2006 and consumers appear to be trying to reduce their consumption, the firm's analyst John Redstone said in a research note.

However, he added that many of the demand factors that serve to moderate prices, such as higher levels of scrap metal, have failed to materialize. Global stainless steel production also appears to be increasing.

Mr. Redstone's expects that a limited amount of nickel supply will come from conventional mines in the next four years and there appears to be "no spare metal available to the market to bridge the supply-demand gap."

As a result of these expectations, Mr. Redstone has raised his earnings forecasts and target prices for several stocks.

He reiterated his "buy" recommendation on LionOre Mining International Ltd. (LIM/TSX) shares, while hiking his price target to $22 from $17, which represents upside of nearly 30%.

Rio Narcea Gold Mines Ltd. (RNG/TSX) is expected to rise roughly 34% to $5.20, versus $3.55 previously. Mr. Redstone also moved his rating on the stock to "buy" from "hold."

He also boosted his price target on Sherritt International Corp. (S/TSX) shares to $19.15 from $14.05, representing upside of 25%.

While nickel prices at the London Metals Exchange have risen significantly so far this year, Mr. Redstone does not think market fundamentals will bring prices back to their historical averages any time soon.

[nelehdine]

Managed to pick up 5000 IGO this a.m at 420 ... muchos grachos to the seller , you can have them back at $7.50 ... hehehe

[Zephyrus]

Nice one nel. I bought 5000 the other day at 4.64. If I had more spare cash I would've topped up today. Did manage to get 20k of IMD at .97 though.

A lot of bargains (15% drops) 20mins into trading today. It was pretty inevitable that they'd bounce back though.

Damn, it would've been nice to have more cash on hand but then again I would've missed out on previous gains.

IMO the market over-reacted (as usual) & over coming months this'll be seen as nothing more than a temporary correction, with the uptrend continuing.

I don't think China's growth will slow much even if the government does try to clamp down on speculation. It will have the effect of smoothing out sharemarket/property gains but companies will still be earning & investment will continue.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

I still think $20/lb is in your dreams Tricha, but will remain looooong on Ni, unlike the unfortunates who are short, like Posco.

Would love to be proved wrong. If so, I'll invite you to my island resort I'd just have bought!

SEC


Posted 6 months when Ni was at giddy heights ($14/lb). $20/lb - you've got to be kidding.

So where do I send the invite[B)]

SEC (MCR IGO)

[nelehdine]

Crazy as it is SEC , IGO is probably lower than when you posted your "$20 no way" thought. MCR has been a huge gainer but IGO has missed the party , part of its attraction at present. ( along with possibly a multi multi million oz Tropicana story )

[SEC]

Latest ABARE outlook for commodity prices out to 2012. A must read.

http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/ac_mar07/htm/metals.htm

ABARE analysts provide probably the most balanced view on commodities you can find - they have no vested interests in going long/short commodities, unlike brokers. They're also conservative in their forecasts.

Their nickel upgraded forecasts are fantastic - $16+/lb through to the end of 2008 on the back of continuing low stockpiles. C'mon brokers, update your eps estimates of the Nico's!

SEC

[i]
Australia Raises Nickel Forecast 48% as Demand Exceeds Supply

By Jesse Riseborough and Tan Hwee Ann

March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's commodity forecaster raised its price forecast for nickel, which soared to a record this month, by 48 percent as a lack of new mines and scarcity of skilled labor means global supply lags behind demand growth.

The price of the metal, used to make stainless steel, may average $36,750 a metric ton, or $16.67 a pound, in 2007, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said in its quarterly report. It had previously forecast a price of $24,800 a ton.

Nickel prices have jumped in the past five years as China stepped up stainless steel production, overtaking Japan as the world's largest supplier. New mines by BHP Billiton Ltd. and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce have been delayed, crimping supply growth.

``Prices are expected to average higher in 2007,'' the Canberra-based bureau said today. ``Long lead times in developing new mines, difficulties in sourcing skilled labor and materials, and strong demand continue to contribute to a tight- supply demand situation.''

Nickel cash prices reached a record $45,400 a ton on the London Metal Exchange on March 1. Three-month nickel futures on the world's largest metal bourse reached an all-time high of $42,200 a ton on March 1.

Global nickel stocks for 2007 are predicted to fall to just 1.8 weeks of consumption by the end of the year, from three weeks, the bureau said.

Brazil's Vale said last year that production at its Goro mine in New Caledonia, the world's largest, would be pushed back by as much as a year to 2008. BHP said Nov. 30 its Ravensthorpe nickel project in Australia, the third-largest nickel mine being built, would be delayed by a year to 2008.

Copper, Zinc

The bureau cut its forecasts for copper and zinc. The price of copper, used in pipes and wires, may average $5,550 a ton, or $2.52 a pound, in 2007, compared with a December forecast of $6,250 a ton. Refined copper production is expected to rise 6 percent this year, outpacing demand growth of 5 percent and ``placing downward pressure on prices,'' the bureau said.

The cash price of the metal has averaged $5,718.60 a ton on the London Metal Exchange so far this year, down 15 percent from 2006 as mining companies including BHP, the world's largest, build new capacity and increase supplies.

Zinc Lowered

The price of zinc, used to galvanize steel, may average $3,500 a ton in 2007, the bureau said, down from an earlier forecast of $4,200 a ton. That's still higher than last year's $3,264 a ton average cash price on the London Metal Exchange, as consumption will exceed output a fourth year, the bureau said.

Chinese production could be greater than expected, as higher zinc prices lead to small mines starting and as new smelting capacity in the country is constructed, it said.

The bureau raised its forecast for aluminum, used in planes, to an average of $2,350 a ton, up from its December forecast of $2,260 a ton. It didn't give a reason for the revision.

The contract price of iron ore, used in steelmaking, is expected to remain at a record next year, before falling 5 percent in 2009, the bureau said. Vale, BHP Billiton, and Rio Tinto Group, which account for three quarters of global iron ore exports, will boost output by 100 million tons, or more than double, by late 2008, it said.

Iron ore prices have risen for five straight years to a record, fueled by rising demand from China and prompting miners

[David Hardman]

Comment taken from http://www.estainlesssteel.com/

Today's official LME nickel closing - cash - $20.32/lb - 3 month buyer - $19.01/lb. Did we mention the possibility of new record today? Three month nickel got as high as $19.20/lb today, beating the week old record of $19.14/lb, set on March 1st. For users of stainless steel, this market is slowly going from a bad dream to a nightmare. For those who own stock in nickel producers - the good times roll on. Besides the drop in nickel inventory overnight, the best barometer we have to monitor the current worldwide supply/demand imbalance, the news about the Goro project potentially not coming online until 2009, is unnerving. Xstrata, releasing the numbers yesterday showing the effect the lower grade ore in Sudbury is having on their production, was more bad news. If anymore negative news comes out of Australia about the Ravensthorpe project being delayed any longer than its current projected 2008 start-up, you could see some thoughts of panic begin. And the chances of that happening - would not stretch the imagination too awfully far. If you don't think the market counts on these mega-mines, look what the market has done ever since Voisey's Bay started producing! They told us we needed a new mega-mine every year just to keep up with demand. Apparently, they weren't kidding. With no mega-mines opening in the near future, today's trading ended at $19.05/lb ($42,000/tonne) (more) (more)

[tricha]

SEC - "Posted 6 months when Ni was at giddy heights ($14/lb). $20/lb - you've got to be kidding.

So where do I send the invite"[B)]

Well I just took profit and bought my own Island Resort Holiday Home, maybe we can swap holiday homes. [:p]

Its out there $58,300 a ton OZ and the profit this quarter for nickel producers will out of this world

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[Sid]

Two day's supply driving nickel nutsJamie Freed
March 14, 2007
EVEN a few months ago, mining industry insiders thought it was crazy to imagine the nickel price would hit $US50,000 a tonne — more than 10 times its price in 2001.
But the once unfathomable barrier is now realistic after the spot price of the stainless steel ingredient hit $US46,725 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange yesterday, up 32 per cent from the start of the year.
Australia's largest nickel producer, BHP Billiton, and other local miners such as Minara Resources and Jubilee Mines are working hard to capitalise on booming prices by proving up more resources or increasing production.
But significant global production sources won't come on stream until large, complex laterite projects are completed, and that will be next year at the earliest.
"We're putting the blowtorch on everybody, saying, 'let's get started early while the price is so remarkable'," said Allegiance Mining chief executive Ian Levy. His company is developing the $100 million Avebury nickel project in Tasmania, which is expected to begin production of 8500 tonnes a year in October.
In Western Australia, miners such as Sally Malay and Mincor recently announced extensions to their resource base.
Mincor managing director David Moore yesterday said his company could have three new nickel mines starting production in the next 18 months or so, bringing the miner's output up to 20,000 tonnes of nickel a year by the end of the decade.
Allegiance shares yesterday closed 2.5¢ higher at 64.5¢ while Mincor shares closed 5¢ higher at $3.

[tricha]

Nickel Rises to a Record for Fourth Day as Stockpiles Plunge

By Brett Foley

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose to a record for a fourth consecutive day in London as stockpiles of the metal used in stainless steel plunged, increasing speculation that supply won't meet demand. Copper advanced to the highest in more than two months.

Nickel inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell 5.8 percent to 3,594 tons, the exchange said in a daily report. That's less than two days of global consumption. Stockpiles have slumped 45 percent this year on surging Chinese demand for stainless steel.

``Supply has just not caught up with demand, particularly for stainless steel in Asia, and there is little prospect of that changing in the near future,'' Kevin Norrish, an analyst with Barclays Capital in London, said today by phone.

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME gained $1,400, or 3.1 percent, to $45,200 a metric ton as of 11:45 a.m. in London. Earlier, the contract traded at $46,300, beating yesterday's record by $1,300.

The metal has jumped more than sixfold in the past five years as supply failed to keep up with demand. China overtook Japan as the world's largest producer of stainless steel last year. China's stainless-steel production soared 68 percent in 2006, the Xinhua News Agency reported last month.

Shipments of nickel laterite ore from the Philippines more than doubled in February from a year ago as producers sought to capitalize on high prices, according to a Bureau of Customs report today. The Philippines is the main supplier of the ore which has a lower content of nickel and is more costly to process. It can be used as a substitute for higher grades in some products.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: March 15, 2007 08:09 EDT

[Sid]

03:12 16Mar2007 LME NICKEL <MNI3> JUMPS NEARLY 7 PCT TO NEW HIGH OF $47,890/T ON TIGHT STOCKS, STRONG DEMAND
03:18 16Mar2007 Nickel jumps nearly 7 pct to new record high
LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - Nickel rose to a new record high of $47,890 a tonne on Thursday as speculators bought on worries about tight supplies and strong demand, traders said.
Three-months nickel <MNI3> on the London Metal Exchange was by 1412 GMT quoted up at $46,300/46,500 from $44,800/44,900 on Thursday.
Nickel prices have surged by more than 40 percent since the start of this year and are up about 200 percent since last April when the market started fretting about falling stocks.
((Reporting by Pratima Desai; pratima.desai@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging: pratima.desai.reuters.com@reuters.net; +44 20 7542 5113))
LME NICKEL <MNI3> JUMPS NEARLY 7 PCT TO NEW RECORD HIGH OF $47,890/TONNE ON TIGHT STOCKS, STRONG DEMAND
Keywords: METALS NICKEL/RISE
Friday, 16 March 2007 03:12:00RTRS [nL15443778] {C}ENDS

[tricha]

Nickel prices have gone ballistic

Date Published | Mar. 17, 2007


Advertisement
BY STAN SUDOL

The price of this strategic, silvery-white metal seems to be going as high as the nickel-containing ballistic missiles that defend North American air space. I hate to sound like a broken record, but the price of nickel keeps on breaking records!

The cash price on the London Metal Exchange briefly smashed through the psychological US$50,000 a tonne/US$22.68 a pound level on Thursday before closing at US$22.32. Overnight inventories fell by nearly six percent so nickel traders responded by driving the price of this industrially vital metal up by about seven percent.

Florida based, Marine Fasteners Incorporated is the largest fastener supplier to the marine boat-building industry in North America. Their stainless steel products require nickel for the metal’s unique corrosion resistance properties. There is no substitute.

David Long sales specialist says, “I would have never believed the price of nickel could hit such heights. Seven out of the last eleven working days, the price of nickel has set an all time high. The only people being more hurt by this trend than the stainless steel consumers like us, are the traders who predicted the market would be down by now, and bet short.”

About seventy percent of global nickel production goes to making stainless steel an alloy that is used in hundreds of thousands of consumer and industrial products. With proper care, many stainless steel products have a useful life expectancy of over 100 years, and they are totally recyclable.

Rising nickel prices are now responsible for about 60 percent of the price of stainless steel. World wide consumption of nickel is estimated to be about 3,700 tonnes per day during 2007. Last year, global nickel production was about 1.35 million tonnes.

Mr. Long also publishes a very informative website devoted to nickel and stainless steel news. [http://www.estainlesssteel.com/]

The main driver of exploding nickel prices and demand is China’s galloping race to urbanize and industrialize it billion-plus population and economy, the size and scale of which is unprecedented in human history.


China accounts for more than 60 percent of the global demand for nickel and has become the largest producer of stainless steel after Japan. China imported 86,908 tonnes of nickel in the first eleven months of 2006, a 7.6 percent increase from the same period during the previous year.


On the production side, the nickel industry has been caught flat-footed due to decades of over-supply and low prices. The present shortages go back to business and political decisions of the past twelve years in Canada and Australia.

In the mid-nineties, the discovery of the Voisey’s Bay nickel sulphide deposit in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador and the building of a nickel laterite mine and refinery – Murrin Murrin – close to the town of Leonora in Western Australia both promised to flood the world with cheap nickel. Prices at the time were hitting record lows of about US$1.76 in late 1998, ensuring that other miners stayed away from any new nickel production.

Native land claims and provincial politics – some feel Newfoundland basically blackmailed the company into uneconomic concessions – held up the Voisey’s Bay project which didn’t come on stream until last year. In addition, while Voisey’s Bay is a significant nickel deposit, initial comparisons to the enormous reserves in the Sudbury Basin have never been met. The Basin and Norilsk, located in Russia’s Siberian district are considered the two largest nickel deposits in the world. There is continued debate in geological circle

[David Hardman]

Fantastic research document on Nickel

http://www.allegiance-mining.com.au/docs/Articles/FDC%20Nickel%20Sector%20Report%20-%2026%20Feb%202007.pdf

[tricha]

Is this the start of the down turn or just another correction [?][?][?]

Nickel Falls on Speculation Steelmakers May Curb Consumption

By Brett Foley

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell for a third consecutive day in London on speculation that a 30 percent gain in prices this year will spur stainless-steel makers to switch to cheaper alternative ingredients.

The metal, mostly consumed by producers of the steel used in kitchen appliances, has risen sixfold in five years. Steelmakers may turn to other materials such as chrome and laterite, an ore containing nickel, instead of refined nickel, said Nick Moore, an analyst at ABN Amro Holding NV.

``At these levels you will get price-induced demand destruction,'' Moore, who has covered the metal markets for more than two decades, said in an interview in London. ``When stainless-steel producers find they can't pass these costs onto their customers they will turn to substitution for some uses.''

Nickel for delivery on the London Metal Exchange fell $1,250, or 2.8 percent, to $43,350 a metric ton as of 11:51 a.m. in London. It has fallen 12 percent since trading at a record $48,500 on March 16.

Inventories monitored by the LME jumped 18 percent to 4,302 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report. That's the biggest increase since Oct. 26.

Producers in China, the world's largest user of the metal, may increasingly turn to laterite from the Philippines to reduce costs, Moore said.

China's imports of laterite are forecast to rise more than 59 percent this year to exceed 6 million tons, from 3.77 million tons in 2006, Xu Aidong, analyst with Beijing Antaike Information Co., said today. Beijing Antaike advises China's government on metals policy.

Demand Growth May Slow

The nation's output of nickel pig iron, made from the laterite ore, is estimated to at least double to 60,000 tons this year, Xu said. Nickel pig iron contains as little as 1 percent nickel and can be used by stainless-steel makers instead of refined nickel.

Overall demand growth for stainless steel may slow to 3 percent this year, from 14 percent in 2006, ABN's Moore said in a March 14 report.

Copper dropped $50 to $6,595 a ton on the LME. Global copper supplies from mines and scrap yards outpaced demand by 350,000 metric tons in 2006, compared with a 100,000-ton deficit in 2005, the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group said yesterday.

Stockpiles of refined copper held by producers, consumers and merchants increased 35 percent to 701,000 tons in December, from 519,000 tons in September, ICSG data showed.

Copper traded at a record $8,800 a ton in May amid increasing Chinese demand and supply disruptions. Since then, inventories monitored by the LME have rebounded to 189,300 tons after dropping to 25,525 tons on July 22, 2005.

Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum fell $14 to $2,780 a ton, zinc slipped $40 to $3,180, lead declined $30 to $1,908 and tin lost $150 to $13,850.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: March 21, 2007 08:15 EDT

Email this article Printer friendly format

[tricha]

Is this the start of the down turn or just another correction[?][?][?]

I think this articule answers it in a nutshell;)

China`s stainless steel output may rise 37% this year

Shanghai, March 21: China, world's biggest producer of stainless steel, will probably increase output by 37 per cent this year to 7.35 million metric tonnes, metals research firm Heinz H Pariser said.

The country made 5.36 million tonnes of stainless steel in 2006, Beatrix Nowak, chief analyst, told a conference today in Foshan, Guangdong province. Global output is estimated at 31 million tonnes this year, up from 28 million tonnes last year, Nowak added.

China is now the world's largest consumer of nickel, used to make steel resistant to corrosion. The projected higher output would boost consumption of nickel. Nickel prices have tripled in the past year, reaching a record 48,500 dollar a tonne. Nickel prices fell 0.7 per cent to 44,300 dollar this afternoon on the London Metal Exchange.

Stockpiles tracked by the exchange plunged 89 per cent in the past year to 3,648 tonnes, equivalent to less than two days of global consumption.

Bureau Report

[ananda77]

...do not kid yourself about the nickel price explosion

-nickel production ramped up worldwide

-increasingly, stainless steel manufacturers are using substitutes in steel production -just do some proper research-

Kind Regards

[ghosta]

Reality Check needed about substitution. I Posted this on a stainless steel site and got the following reply from SS manufacturer-

QUESTION
Not being in the stainless steel business, Im curious to find out just what effect the high nickel prices is having on retail goods. Although todays prices havent yet been passed on to consumers (I assume) what does nickel at $50000US do to the price of a $200 kitchen sink- add 10%, 20%, 40%?

ANSWER
Well, first of all I guess, you need to consider, that it is a long way from smelter to shelf. Here are my assumptions:

1. The producer of stainless steel does not have a longterm agreement with mining companies on a fixed price level (LME movements could be considered) or has own mining capabilities (s. Outokumpu, Finland - by the way, why are they selling it now ?).
2. The alloy scrap used (usually above 85%) comes to lower price (maybe even also on a fixed price agreement) and level.
3. The producer of the household utilities does not have a fixed price agreement with its supplier.
4. The original margin for the reseller (trader or large department store) is large enough to compensate a 10 -20 % rise.

Conclusion: Only if nickel stays at 50000 $ /t. and above for a long time (6 months and more) there is a reason given that the salesprice of a kitchen sink might rise about 10 - 20%.

[ghosta]

WHICH NICKEL STOCK TO BUY?

<center></center>

If your new to nickel then this broker report will give you the answer. Fox Davies Capital looked at many small- med nickel in the world and came up with an answer. No surprises here- the answer was obvious to anyone who has had a brief look at nickel stocks.

The report contains a thorough description of the worldwide nickel scene and this section is COMPULSORY READING for anyone interested in any Nickel Stock.

http://www.allegiance-mining.com.au/default.asp?id=66

[Mothman]

There is no substitute for Nickel when making Stainless Steel.

From a 2004 US article:

Substitutes: With few exceptions, substitutes for nickel would result in increased cost or some tradeoff in the economyor performance of the product. Present and potential nickel substitutes include aluminum, coated steels, and plastics inthe construction and transportation industries; nickel-free specialty steels in the power generating, petrochemical, andpetroleum industries; and titanium and plastics in severe corrosive applications.

minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/nickel/500397.pdf

I'm not saying nickel will stay at the current high prices forever, in fact I have sold most of my nickel stocks waiting for a correction. What is apparent though is that for the short term supply is seriously constrained while demand is healthy. We will see just how elastic the demand for nickel is as the situation plays out.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by ananda77

-increasingly, stainless steel manufacturers are using substitutes in steel production -just do some proper research-


I think you should be the one doing the proper research - stainless steel manufacturers CANNOT use substitutes in production. They can move with the market and provide more of the cheaper 200 series steel but cannot substitute nickel in a given grade.

[ananda77]

...how about advanced composite materials

prize/pound in 1999 = 60pounds

today = 3pound; very competitive indeed with stainless steel

the superior qualities -strenghth, torsional rigidity and light weight- will lead to it's use in the mainstream car industry and other industries within a short priod of time

extrem price levels in the supply to steel manufacturing will only speeed up the process

Kind Regards

[sparrow]

quote:...how about advanced composite materials

prize/pound in 1999 = 60pounds

today = 3pound; very competitive indeed with stainless steel



I assume you mean carbon fibre and kevlar composites, which are formed using resins and fibreglass.

Well, resins are a by-product of oil, we all know the price situation there, and carbon fibre (if you can get it) is 4 times the price it was three years ago, so it's impossible that the production cost of composites is one twentieth the price it was in 1999.

Ananda, let's have some hard backup to support your statements, instead of wild rambling.

[tricha]

Sorry Ananda77 - there is no subsitute, period, full stop, or which ever way you would like to take it.

I spent 23 years working in the dairy industry and everything was, is and has to be glorious Stainless Steel.

Here is an experiment for you to try Ananda, go and buy some cheap 200 series stainless steel cutlery, put them in your stainless steel bench with a little bit of water and tell me what happens in 24 hours [?][?][?][?][?][?][?][?]

Florida based, Marine Fasteners Incorporated is the largest fastener supplier to the marine boat-building industry in North America. Their stainless steel products require nickel for the metal’s unique corrosion resistance properties. There is no substitute.

Mothman - "There is no substitute for Nickel when making Stainless Steel."
From a 2004 US article:

Substitutes: With few exceptions, substitutes for nickel would result in increased cost or some tradeoff in the economyor performance of the product. Present and potential nickel substitutes include aluminum, coated steels, and plastics inthe construction and transportation industries; nickel-free specialty steels in the power generating, petrochemical, andpetroleum industries; and titanium and plastics in severe corrosive applications.

Heavy Metal - "I think you should be the one doing the proper research - stainless steel manufacturers CANNOT use substitutes in production. They can move with the market and provide more of the cheaper 200 series steel but cannot substitute nickel in a given grade."

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

I spent 23 years working in the dairy industry and everything was, is and has to be glorious Stainless Steel.


Not just glorious stainless steel, but nickel-rich 304 stainless steel. The global food processing industry cannot and will not accept anything less than 304 stainless. The el cheapo 200 series may have some niche markets for homeware and ornamental applications, but for performance and corrosion resistance 304 and 316 SS grades rule the roost.

[tricha]

We all know about Xstrata's bid, so the big question [?][?][?]
Who will be next.

I put money on WSA today, as the next takeover option.

AGM - Jinchaun Group Ltd hold 4.7% so have ahead start.

JBM - Pretty expensive and big price jump today [?]

WSA - tied in with Lion Ores concentrator at the moment, I'm betting Xstrata will like this one, high grade, good tonnage and huge exploration upside and next to existing infrastructure and very little hedging.

Tied in to off take with BHP ( Nickel West), least chance.

MCR - MD sold recently
IGO - Director sold recently
SMY -




Xstrata bids $4bn for Canada's LionOre
Related articles
LionOre seeks $300m for Botswana nickel mine
LionOre Mining International Ltd., a Canadian nickel producer, said it will choose by November one of six banks from which to borrow $300-million...
Xstrata makes new appointments as it beds down Falconbridge
Diversified mining major Xstrata has announced the appointment of Mark Moffet as CFO of Xstrata Alloys, reporting to Peet Nienaber, Xstrata Alloys...
LionOre Mining's Activox nickel refining approved in Botswana
Xstrata, seeking Falconbridge, to start buying shares
Canadian miner buys Botswana nickel mines
By: Matthew Hill
Published: 26 Mar 07 - 9:25
LSE- and ZSE-listed diversified miner Xstrata announced on Monday that it had entered into an agreement to buy all of the issued and outstanding shares of nickel producer LionOre for $15,96 a share, valuing the transaction at $4-billion, or R28,9-billion.

The friendly takeover bid represented a 5,8% premium on the closing price of LionOre's shares on March 23, of $15,09 a share, on the TSX, and a 16,5% premium on the volume-weighted average price of LionOre shares over the past 30 trading days on the Toronto bourse.

Xstrata, led by South African Mick Davis, said in a statement that, according to the agreement, LionOre had the right to accept a superior proposal, which it would have the right to match, but LionOre would have to pay Xstrata a $112-million termination payment if the acquisition was not completed because of a superior proposal.

[Dazza]

tricha, i hope u hoped into AGM man :D

[tricha]

Any Nickel is good Nickel Dazza! and it looks like it will continue for a few years yet [:p]

China's nickel output to rise up to 200,000 mt in 2007: Antaike
Source: Platts



See also
Nickel Board
Nickel CatalogBeijing's Antaike forecast China's nickel output at 190,000-200,000 mt in 2007, up from the around 140,000 mt produced in 2006, an official from the state nonferrous metals information division said to Platts.

"There are no new major nickel projects in 2007, just Jinchuan, who has an expansion plan," the official added.

Officials from Jinchuan declined to comment on this expansion. The company, which accounts for about 90% of China's total nickel output, has a production capacity of 130,000 mt/year currently. According to its website, it is in the process to raise its production capacity of electrolytic nickel to 150,000 mt/year by 2010.

Meanwhile, the Antaike official also forecast China's demand for nickel to grow 20% to 300,000 mt in 2007, from 250,000 mt in 2006 on the back of higher demand for stainless steel with production expected to rise to 7.2 million mt in 2007 from 5.3 million mt in 2006.

In view of the strong demand of nickel for stainless steel production, the official expects domestic nickel prices to continue its upward trend in 2007, growing say about 12%. The official said current domestic nickels are about "Yuan Forty plus thousand" ex-plant.

According to the Antaike website, domestic nickel prices are quoted (as at March 21, 2007) at Yuan 428,000-430,000($55,363-55,622)/mt ex plant (Huatong) and Yuan 428,500-430,500/mt ex plant (Changjiang), while Jinchuan's prices are Yuan 372,000/mt ex plant for the full plate material and Yuan 373,200/mt ex plant for its 4X4 material (both prices have been effected March 23, 2007). The LME official cash price prices for nickel was $45,550-45,600/mt Thursday.

Meanwhile, China's unwrought nickel imports in February 2007 totaled 12,087 mt, which is up 24% from the 9,735 mt imported in January, the figures showed. Nickel imports year-to-date totaled 218,223 mt. For February 2007, China also exported 1,831 mt of unwrought nickel, down marginally from 2,836 mt exported in January. Total unwrought nickel exported in January-February was 46,666 mt.

[tricha]

Hunting for the lion's share of the nickel jungle

The challenge Although Xstrata Nickel is just seven months old, CEO Ian Pearce wanted to expand quickly The call An all-cash deal for LionOre gives the miner a foothold in 'the global nickel play'
ANDY HOFFMAN

MINING REPORTER

Ian Pearce is a man who likes to keep things on schedule. The chief executive officer of Xstrata Nickel rises each morning at 4:45 a.m. He always catches the first GO train leaving from Oakville, Ont., at 5:34. Coffee in hand, he's in the company's downtown Toronto headquarters at precisely 6:13.

It should be no surprise then that Mr. Pearce followed through this week on his pledge to aggressively expand his company's business in short-order fashion.

Just seven months after taking on his first CEO job, he pulled off a $4.6-billion friendly deal to purchase LionOre Mining International Ltd., the largest pure play nickel miner left on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

"It fits. We saw the value [LionOre] had for our strategy going forward," said the trim and tall 50-year-old during an interview.

Print Edition - Section Front
Enlarge Image

More Business Stories
U.S. targets China's exported paper
Canfor CEO steps down amid shakeup
Magna departures called 'coincidence'
BCE's land-line upgrade gets backseat in spending
(Home) fashion forward
Infrastructure: A safe road to riches
Go to the Business section
"Our strategy was to grow. We saw it as a nice asset to come into our business right now. It's cash accretive and generates good cash flow in these good times."

Good times indeed. The negotiations, which began in earnest last November, were conducted against a backdrop of surging nickel prices. With each passing day, it seemed LionOre's share price was rising in tandem with the metal, which has rallied 62 per cent since the start of this year and peaked at $48,500 (U.S.) a tonne on March 16, just 10 days before the deal was announced.

By that time, Mr. Pearce's offer price of $18.50 (Canadian) per LionOre share represented a slim 5.8-per-cent premium to the Toronto company's closing share price the day before.

Not surprisingly, some institutional shareholders were quick to bemoan the bid price. One said Xstrata was "stealing" LionOre, which operates mines in Botswana, South Africa and Australia that are expected to produce 44,000 tonnes of nickel this year. Several analysts have maintained their price targets above the bid price, suggesting the offer fundamentally undervalues LionOre.

Mr. Pearce, of course, fundamentally disagrees.

"We've evaluated the business. As the prices go up and down, so the deal moves as well. We've had to factor in what we can do with this business. The Xstrata story has always been that when we deploy ourselves around any asset, the management approach and the accountability approach that we always use allows us to run that business and get more out of that business than the previous owners. So no matter where the metal price hits, we're going to leverage that business," he said.

Despite being a novice CEO, Mr. Pearce has clearly picked up a thing or two during the dramatic takeover battles waged for Inco Ltd. and Falconbridge Ltd. last summer. At the time, he was Falconbridge's chief operating officer. When Xstrata PLC -- the up-and-coming Anglo-Swiss miner led by fellow South African native Mick Davis -- emerged victorious in the fight for Falconbridge, Mr. Pearce agreed to stay on to head the company's new nickel division.

As with Xstrata's Falconbridge deal, the nickel unit's bid for LionOre is all cash.

The deals also share a common strategy in seeing Xstrata move early to give itself an edge. A 20-per-cent ownership stake in Falconbridge, acquired early before other bidders arrived, gave Mr. Davis a clear

[tricha]

China's Nickel Demand to Gain 29% This Year, Macquarie Says

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel demand in China, the world's largest user of the metal, will grow 29 percent this year as its stainless-steel industry expands, Macquarie Bank Ltd. said.

Demand will rise to 320,000 metric tons in 2007, Macquarie analysts led by Jim Lennon in London said today in a weekly report. The forecast is higher that that of Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., an adviser to China's government, which predicted in January growth of 20 percent to 300,000 tons.

China overtook Japan last year as the world's largest stainless-steel producer and nickel user. Most nickel is used to make stainless steel, an alloy used in construction and kitchen appliance, and prices rose to a record last year.

Chinese stainless-steel producers including Baosteel Group Corp. are increasingly relying on so-called nickel pig iron to trim production costs, Macquarie said. The raw material is a cheaper alternative to refined nickel, and China may produce as much as 80,000 tons this year, it said.

Laterite ores, containing nickel and cobalt, are imported from the Philippines, Indonesia and New Caledonia to China. They are processed in blast furnaces to make nickel pig iron, which contains between about 1 and 3 percent nickel.

Prices for ore used to produce nickel pig iron are rising, Macquarie said. The price of limonite, a type of laterite ore, ore in the domestic market has doubled over the past year to around $128 a ton, causing a ``massive'' rise in producers' cash costs to as much as $30,000 a ton, from about $15,000 a ton, the analysts said.

Nickel for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange gained $1,000, or 2.2 percent, to $45,800 a ton as of 11:34 a.m. local time. The contract has advanced the most this year among the seven base metals traded on the LME, rising 37 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: April 2, 2007 06:40 EDT

Email this article Printer friendly format


Advertisement: You've worked, you've saved, now PROTECT your nest egg.

[SEC]

Hooray - IGO hit an all time high today, finally moving higher than it was in October - when the PON was $16/lb (now $22) and the forward PE was 11 (now 7). The damage done by the MIR and Barclays fire sale of IGO is still evident and IGO is still $1 too cheap wrt its peers.

SEC

[tricha]

Its out there, $60,000 a ton OZ for Nickel.

And it dosn't matter which nickel stock you have as long as you have nickel.

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
( April 5 )
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 809500 +200
Copper 178975 -1225
Nickel 4812 -312
Lead 34975 +25
Zinc 108550 +

And the beauty off it all, no Nickel stocks to speak of, relatively.

Sorry if I sound excited, but I am [:p]:):D[8D]

cheers [B)][}:)]

[tricha]

Nickel hits $50,000 on stocks, demand
Thu Apr 5, 2007 12:31 PM BST
Email This Article | Print This Article | RSS [-] Text [+] By Daniel Magnowski

LONDON (Reuters) - Nickel prices rose to $50,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange for the first time ever on Thursday, boosted by falling inventories and strong demand.
The metal &lt;MNI3=LX&gt;, mined by Xstrata (XTA.L: Quote, Profile , Research) CVRD (VALE5.SA: Quote, Profile , Research) and Norilsk (GMKN.RTS: Quote, Profile , Research), is one of the strongest performers in the commodity markets.

It has gained almost 50 percent since the start of 2007 and is more than twice as expensive as it was this time a year ago. In that period, stocks in LME-monitored warehouses have fallen to below 5,000 tonnes from almost 30,000.


"The low level of stocks highlights the market's vulnerability to supply disruptions which have plagued the nickel market and been a key factor behind the sustained rally in price," Barclays Capital said in a report.

Use of nickel, which is added to steel to make it rust-proof, has risen sharply in recent years, particularly in China, leading many to believe that the so-called workshop of the world will continue to drive demand growth in coming years.

"The market has recognized that US demand might decrease due to a slower pace of economic activity but that demand from emerging economies, especially China, will more than offset any possible shortfall from the US," Dresdner Kleinwort said in a note.

In contrast to nickel's 50 percent rise, the Reuters/Jeffries CRB index of commodities

[David Hardman]

Interesting comments on http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml



******

Opinion only - Another record breaking week for nickel, and while we have chided Jinchuan in the past for its "motivated" statements, we have to nod in agreement when they say that the price has lost touch with industrial reality. As consumers and distributors of stainless steel product (stainless being the single biggest consumer of nickel), we are seeing the effects it is having. For consumers who must use stainless steel for its corrosion resistance, there is little choice but to accept the prices and move on. But we are also seeing customers, who chose to use stainless steel as an "explanation point of quality" for their product, considering a temporary change to a less expensive metal. We are also seeing the beginning in-roads of serious consideration of 200 series stainless steel in the US. And while most users will not be able to accept the deleted level of corrosion resistance the 200 series can offer in comparison to the 300 series in many applications, it is those customers on the fine line, that nickel producers should be worried about. We are even hearing reports that the world's tallest building under construction in Dubai, may have abandoned its plans to use stainless steel on the exterior, due to its high cost (we are unable to confirm this report).

Let's talk plain and shoot straight from the perspective of a stainless steel user. Nickel producers, while being blamed for the increase in prices, really can not be blamed. Only a fool would own a nickel producing company today and not be running flat out to produce as much nickel as possible. There are conspiracy theorists that say Norilsk, or other nickel company's may be stockpiling nickel, but this really makes no sense. Maybe they are, but we seriously doubt it. It was Norilsk who released a massive stockpile back when this bull run began, trying to keep the cost of nickel in the "reasonable" $3/lb range. The only stockpiling that we believe could be going on, might be by governments trying to guarantee access to what many classify as a strategic mineral, for future military purposes. Producers of stainless can not be blamed, regardless of what an official from Norilsk claimed last fall. That is kind of like blaming the fans because your sports team lost the game. We would like to blame stock investors, but they are just taking advantage of the record high prices and the huge profits seen by the company's they invest in. Blaming them would be sour grapes, by those who weren't smart enough to invest and take advantage of the windfall themselves. We can point our finger at China, and while their usage has taken the world by total surprise, production has kept up.
[b]
In our humble opinion, it is the system of speculation that allows prices to apparently have no ceiling. And to those stockholders, who say it is inconceivable that nickel prices will ever drop below a certain price again, due to the increases in cost of production nickel producers are experiencing, we say, the 'system" cares little about that either. What the system does allow, is a metal that is worth $7.36/lb on April 6, 2005, with 9,936 tonnes of nickel sitting in LME warehouses, and worth $7.70/lb a year later, with 31,668 tonnes of nickel stored, be worth $22.68/lb yesterday, with 4,812 tonnes of inventory stocked. Is this evidence of a market price being determined solely by supply and demand? Or is it the billions of dollars finding their way into fund markets, and these funds looking for a place to get the highest return on investment? Smarter minds than ours will have to determine that. The scary part of this whole equation is, the old saying. The harder they climb, the harder they fall. There is no reason for any practical person to see why they would anytime soon, except for minor corrections. The increase in demand has so far offset any loss to substitution concerns. There are no promises of any new substantial supply forseen for another few years. Funds haven't found a better p

[ghosta]

" And it dosn't matter which nickel stock you have as long as you have nickel."

Rubbish. Read the Fox- Davies Capital Report. The stocks to buy are AGM and MBN.

Link to report (Who hasnt already read it- if you havent where have you been?)
http://www.allegiance-mining.com.au/default.asp?id=66

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by ghosta

" And it dosn't matter which nickel stock you have as long as you have nickel."

Rubbish. Read the Fox- Davies Capital Report. The stocks to buy are AGM and MBN.



In that report Fox Davies admits it is biased towards nickel pre-producers because they supposedly trade at a discount, yet also admits that the pre-producers will most likely miss out on the current high prices and realise a lower long term price of USD$15000/tonne. Not to mention that almost all recent mining projects have had cost and/or time blowouts and slower than expected ramp-up to full production. Thus pre-producers deserve to trade at a discount.

I'll stick with the reliable producers where there is less operational risk and maximum exposure to current high prices.

SEC

PS IGO's only trading at a 50c discount to its peers now. About time the market realised the discrepancy, it only took 3 months.

[tricha]

Attempted Theft of Two Nickel Producers - "Last summer the base metal market was a buzz with the bidding wars for nickel producers Falconbridge and Inco. The whole affair was intriguing with multiple bids and cross bids of takeover targets. Nickel at the time was on the move and had doubled from $6/pound in January. The victors in these battles were Xstrata taking over Falconbridge for $18 Billion and CVRD claiming Inco at $17.6 Billion. Falconbridge was purchased for a handsome 15X cash flow multiple and Inco shareholders were rewarded with a 9X cash flow multiple.


Sec, WNS, David Hardman or anyone, have you got any predictions on the next Nickel takeover.[?][?][?]

My pick is WSA because of its sheer ore body size and lack of a true major.

[SEC]

Copy & paste from Share Comp thread.


quote:Originally posted by tricha


Do you have an opinion of further Nickel consolidation in the near future [?][?][?], there are not that many left.


You can probably cover this topic better than I can. I think Lionore had a diversified mine locality portfolio, whereas Jubilee, Minara, Mincor, Independence, Sally Malay, Allegiance etc as well as all the co's with mines under development are essentially one mine or one locality operations. There is also the BHP nickel offtake agreements with the Kambalda miners in force for the next 10000 years or so that would reduce their attractiveness.

PS With WSA output to feed into the Lionore concentrator why would Xstrata bother with taking over WSA when there is such easy risk-free money with the offtake agreement.

SEC

[tricha]

SEC - "PS With WSA output to feed into the Lionore concentrator why would Xstrata bother with taking over WSA when there is such easy risk-free money with the offtake agreement."

WSA are building their own concentrator as we speak.

There are some very interesting developements regarding the Forrestania Nickel Belt, Kagara has a lease hosting a likely extension off Flying Fox and GWE hold a wide tract of land covering the South Eastern extension.
This could be like the gold Super Pit in Kal, except a Nickel one,just a theory.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

There are some very interesting developements regarding the Forrestania Nickel Belt, Kagara has a lease hosting a likely extension off Flying Fox and GWE hold a wide tract of land covering the South Eastern extension.
This could be like the gold Super Pit in Kal, except a Nickel one,just a theory.

Cheers [B)][}:)]


Actually the next 'nickel' takeover target might be a producer of other metals but have leases to nickel deposits with latent value that hasn't been recognised by the market. Kagara fits into that category. CSM did as well.

SEC

[ghosta]

" I'll stick with the reliable producers where there is less operational risk and maximum exposure to current high prices."

Its fine to stick with this ultra-consevative approach because it means you dont have to bother doing any research. In todays market it works because you can buy any nickel stock and make money.

Of course you will miss out on making real money and risk losing big time if you dont dump your shares as soon as there is any downturn. Your likely to stuggle in the bad times because you are not able to do research (dont understand it?), so then its best you stay out of the stock market altogether.

Meantime good luck. At least your doing a bit better than bank interest.

[wns]

quote:Originally posted by ghosta

" I'll stick with the reliable producers where there is less operational risk and maximum exposure to current high prices."

Its fine to stick with this ultra-consevative approach because it means you dont have to bother doing any research. In todays market it works because you can buy any nickel stock and make money.

Of course you will miss out on making real money and risk losing big time if you dont dump your shares as soon as there is any downturn. Your likely to stuggle in the bad times because you are not able to do research (dont understand it?), so then its best you stay out of the stock market altogether.

Meantime good luck. At least your doing a bit better than bank interest.


I personally rate SEC as one of the most astute posters on Sharetrader.
His comments, including the one you are referring to, make perfect sense to me.
You've obviously got no idea of his track record.

[ghosta]

WNS- Ill admit I dont know anything about SEC's track record, but he obviously doesnt know how evaluate mining stocks -he has admitted that himself.
He has completely misunderstood the Fox Davies Report.
I didnt think it was all that difficult to understand but I suppose Im used to researching mining stocks.

As I said, anyone can make some money in todays market.

[tricha]

Ghosta It might pay u to go and ghost over how many AGM shares are out there.

But if U can't see yourself in the mirror theres no point[|)]

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by ghosta

WNS- Ill admit I dont know anything about SEC's track record, but he obviously doesnt know how evaluate mining stocks -he has admitted that himself.
He has completely misunderstood the Fox Davies Report.
I didnt think it was all that difficult to understand but I suppose Im used to ramping spec mining stocks.

As I said, anyone can make some money in todays market.


Gee I touched a nerve there I think:D:D:D

As for evaluation of mining stocks, I'll let my track record on this site speak for itself.

SEC

[anne2]

Ghosta are you the Davies part of the Fox-Davies team? You say your real name is Roger Davies in your profile.

Cheers Anne

[ghosta]

tricha- what are you trying to say? You dont hold any AGM shares because there are 700m shares out there? Well you are the one thats lost out here...!

Im happy to see my money double every 6 months like it has been doing for the last 18 months! I see some jeolousy here!

If you and SEC are happy with your bank interest stocks good luck to you! Just because the Fox Davies report doesnt recommend your favourite shares as a BUY it must be rejected at all costs- just make up the reasons!

Who is touching a raw nerve here!

[anne2]

I certainly wouldn't call MCR a bank-interest stock. In the last 14 months it has only had one down month and the price has gone from 65c to $3.36. That's a gain of 416%

In that same time, AGM has gone from 22c to 82.5c and has had four down months. That's a gain of 275%.

MCR is actually one of teh heroes of the market and a large bit of its success would have to be due to the excellent David Moore. As long as he is in charge, I predict MCR's price will keep going up.

Just becaseu AGM is picked as the favourite of the FOX-Davies Stock broking report doesn't make AGM better than every other nickel stock! Gosh I wish it could be that easy.

The best stock is the one whose price goes up the most and stays up. AGM ain't bad though, but it still has to prove itself as a producer.

Put MCR's chart on monthly if you want to see a truly beautiful sight!

Cheers Anne

Cheers Anne

[ghosta]

Anne2 just a couple of points.
The Fox Davies Report is about buying shares NOW. Unfortunately we cant buy retrospectively.

MCR has performed well and has had a great run. But can you see it tripling in the next twelve months? If prices remain above $30000US thats a certainty for AGM.

What if nickel prices drop ? All nickel stocks will be hit, but for AGM, where the SP has not factored in todays prices, the SP will recover and continue to rise. Unless you are smart enough to get out of todays producing nickel miners early, a shareholder will face a substantial loss!

Im not having a go at you Anne2, but it amazes me how people cannot understand that the SP of near producers like AGM will rise as sale begin, just like EVERY other producer did when sales began! Its easy money! I just cant help making money!

[Zephyrus]

Ghosta

Tricha was recommending MCR from the 65cents days so I don't think he/she would be jealous of your gains with AGM, having made even more from MCR.

Cheers,
Zzz.

[Heavy Metal]

Ghosta - typical hotheaded hotcopperite who ramps his favourite spec plays to death and wan't take any criticism.

Probably hasn't experienced a downturn since he will soon learn that it's the spec plays and pre-producers that will fall the hardest.

Run along and save your moronic posts for hotcopper, that's a good boy.

[ghosta]

Might be a good start for some of you posters to actually READ the Fox-Davies Broker report. But because in the summary your favourite share (which may have been a good earner up until now) is not listed as a buy, its all crap. Thats fine if you want to delude yourself.

Readers of this Forum may wish to buy a stock and make some good money. The F-D Report is a truly excellent report written by an English company, who looked into nickel stocks all over the world. The fact that the recommended AGM is no surprise to anyone who has done any research on nickel stocks. But those with blinkers on will go on wailing in the background.......

Heavy metal - Your out of line. Grow Up. Watch and learn.

[Gofor Broke]

Enjoy both Sec and Ghostas informative and interesting posts and rate
Sec 10/10
Ghosta 10/10
Heavy metal - did you get a day off from kindy?

[Zephyrus]

I've read the Fox-Davies report & have held AGM since before it was released, as well as MCR & IGO. Also held LIM but sold off due to the upcoming move off of the ASX. I'm happy to have some diversification in my nickel stocks & believe they all have great prospects.

I also hold a variety of other stocks in related & different industries. Again, I'm happy to be diversified. I wouldn't put all my money in one stock no matter how positive I was towards it's future. Anything can happen & it often does.

Cheers,
Zzz.

[kronos]

Hi Zzz,

Totally agree with your comments. I also hold AGM and MCR. The latter a top company with excellent mangement. As is the former.The only difference, of course, is that AGM haven`t sold anything yet but when they do their share price will really jump. So in percentage terms they are probably a more attractive investment.
But, yes, diversification in the one market is prudent.

Kronos.

[ghosta]

Each to his own. Best thing I ever did was dump all my other shares several years ago and put all the money into AGM.

Ive blown the "divesification" theory to hell. But you have to chose the right stock and AGMs dont come along often. The trick is to recognise it early.

100 Bagger- a bit to go yet but certain to get there!

[whiteheron]

ghosta

Very nice if you manage to choose a superstar
But if you dont you can go broke

I was once way overweight in a particular company thinking that it had 100 % plus of upside and no downside, but as it subsequently turned out I was wrong and it cost me around 20 % of my portfolio

Just a comment from personal experience --- there are no certainties in investing !

[foodee]

Whiteheron

Ever so true.

Cheers

[tricha]

Ghosta -Grow Up. Watch and learn!

I think maybe you should have a real good look in the Mirror Ghosta[|)].

JBM, WSA, SMY, IGO, and MCR have close to the same number of shares combined as AGM, are all class acts and have made many of us well off and will continue to do so while Nickel stays up.

AGM are close to their peak, 700 million dollars I suspect will be it. Will produce only 8,000 tons a year nickel, starting in 6 monthes maybe [?]

The wildcard in their pack however is they are a prime takover candidate along with WSA.

IF you go back over AGM you will find I had them and made a 1 bagger of them in a month!

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[ghosta]

" Ghosta -Grow Up. Watch and learn!
I think maybe you should have a real good look in the Mirror Ghosta."

Trying to be funny or trying to be a smart alec...not sure.

Please dont do it, it offends all viewers sensibilities. While your about it, how about a lot less bold capitals in your posts, others have no need to do it..... perhaps its your way of getting noticed!

[JoeKing]

quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

ghosta

Very nice if you manage to choose a superstar
But if you dont you can go broke
I was once way overweight in a particular company thinking that it had 100 % plus of upside and no downside, but as it subsequently turned out I was wrong and it cost me around 20 % of my portfolio
Just a comment from personal experience --- there are no certainties in investing !


WH
I saw the "writing on the wall" got out of LAF with a (small) profit.
Cannot compare with AGM.
Hey most of my friends are "divorced and second time rounders" one bad experience should not make you forever shy.
Cheers
JK

[whiteheron]

JoeKing

I also had LAF and like you saw the writing on the wall and decided to quit whilst I was ahead by a modest amount
It proved to be the wright thing to do of course

Showed me that politics ,country risk, power of religious groups etc are not to be ignored

I still keep a good watch on LAF just for future reference

The bad experience that I had (with GTM) I believe has made me a much smarter investor
Experience does not come cheap

[tricha]

Awesome result out, 36 cents a share NPAT for the quarter for IGO.
Nearly as much as the 1st half year

And Nickel is up another 10 Thousand per ton, going into this quarter.
Yes Nickel still at $60,000 a ton OZ.

Waiting with antipication Mincors result, probably at the end of next week.

SMY and MRE will be doing the same I presume.

WSA just getting into the picture.

AGM holders will have to eat their hearts out, their turn should come Feb 2008 ;)

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[ghosta]

While they wait for Feb 2008, AGM holders will have to be content to watch the SP double.

Holders of all other nickel stocks will have to eat their hearts out!

[tricha]

Thursday, April 19

Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $22.73/lb - 3 month buyer - $21.86/lb (44.77% higher than 1/1/07). We may be in the 5th year of a bull market, but to the best of our recollection, we have not seen it act so confused in quite some time. The news this week would typically have given a bull trader all the ammunition they needed to buy, and drive the market higher. On the same hand, the bears have been hard pressed to find anything to make them think the market was going south. But trying to understand the traded price of nickel this week has been like analyzing the movement of a child's seesaw. One moment it's up, the next it's down. The floor established by the last correction appears to be holding, but traders can't seem to find their footing beyond that.
Let's look closely at the week, thus far. Some felt the gain in nickel inventory recorded yesterday was bearish. Really? Last Friday there was 4,374 tonnes of nickel being stocked in LME warehouses. Today, there are 4,266 tonnes recorded. Yesterday, the WBMS recorded nickel consumption grew by 20% worldwide, and production grew by 6%. That means more nickel is being consumed, than is available, and this after a year of the same situation. We thought that was the primary reason why nickel prices had been driven so high, the whole supply and demand thing? Manufacturers have been threatening to produce stainless with less nickel, but the WBMS figure mentioned before, doesn't reflect this actually happening. The dollar has been taking a beating this week, which was given by some analyst's, as the primary reason why nickel prices rose during a long period, earlier in this bull run.

Today, China reported its GDP grew faster than expected, so everyone immediately assumes that whatever step China will take to cool their economic growth down, could be bad for nickel consumption. How many times has China raised its interest rates in the last year, and what effect has it had on nickel, one way or the other? What analysts really need to be worried about, is what will happen if the 1.3 billion Chinese, decide to quit saving 50% of their new found wealth, and start spending a larger percentage of it. And today, support personnel at Voisey's Bay went on strike, after we reported last weekend that a CVRD official confirmed that any strike would effect production. The market reaction? Nickel fell. This story isn't getting any attention, which makes us feel rather foolish, as we have been keeping our readers updated on it for the last few weeks.

So why do we care? Primarily because we try to offer the news and a brief analysis on what happened during the day, and for the last few days, we have had no "analysis". And while many of our readers are those with an interest in nickel, from the producers point of view, many of our readers are, like us, looking at this situation from the nickel consumers point of view. We would like to offer something besides articles for those who come here trying to figure out where their stainless steel prices are heading, and saying "oh, it's most likely goin up", without offering some kind of practical reason, is worthless. We kind of feel like we missed a big meeting somewhere, were the fundamentals of the market were re-defined. After all that, we apologize to our readers for expressing our frustration, and for not being able to offer any legitimate reason for why the market is presently doing what it is doing. 3 month nickel ended the day at $21.56/lb ($47,525/tonne) (Dow Jones

[tricha]

Spot on Heavy Metal"typical hotheaded hotcopperite who ramps his favourite spec plays to death and wan't take any criticism"

Hotcopperite on AGM tonight :( Sad!
.................................................. ....................
I agree totally.

They issue shares to themselves as well as a tidy directors fee.

But what makes me angry is that they can borrow the money from the company to buy the shares interest free and dont have to pay it back untill they are no longer a director.

So if 5 million shares are issued at say $1, then the company pays for the shares on a loan. At present the money for the loan would have been raised at the last loan raising (31.5c), so over 15 million shares were issued just to provide the director with 5 million shares. So we have in effect 20 million shares issued just for the benefit of one greedy director.

This F***** stinks.

[ghosta]

I agree that this practice, which is quite legal and commonly adopted, stinks.

The directors of the company obviously believe they are doing such a good job they deserve to be well rewarded.

Because AGM has been doubling in value, then redoubling again, every six months, and all the independent brokers who study this company are still saying the share is STILL well under value, shareholders are not likely to object formally to this arrangement.

Everyone who has anything to do with AGM is making so much money!

Pleased to see that all nickel shares are doing well at the moment- most are doing better than bank interest!

[tricha]

BUOYANT RESULTS
Stellar run continues for Kambalda nickel miners
Nickel miners and explorers, reviving the Kambalda area projects, are reporting good results due to strong metal prices.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Wednesday , 25 Apr 2007

PERTH -

Western Australia's Mincor Resources NL's March quarter report today reflected the same level of buoyancy as fellow Kambalda region nickel miner Independence Group NL showed yesterday when it reported a record three months' net profit after taxation of $A41.7 million ($US34.44 M).

The Mincor report not only detailed a strong operating surplus of $A36.7 M ($US30.31 M), despite reduced production, but also a bold new hedging programme for a total of 4,026 tonnes of payable nickel metal to April 2009 at an average price of $A24,242/t ($US20,023/t). This represents less than 27% of Mincor's expanded production over that period.

It is also a price that would have made any nickel mine manager in the Kambalda region over the past 30 years green with envy, given that they were often saddled with a flat nickel price below $US2/lb.

Mincor's share price warmed to the news, as did Indepencence's price yesterday that rose $A0.70 the previous day to $A6.80/share ($US5.61/share), though it softened A14¢ at the close of trade today through a high turnover.

At the time of writing the two other Kambalda regional miners, Sally Malay Mining Ltd (in partnership with Brilliant Mines of Canada) and Consolidated Minerals Ltd (with subsidiary Consolidated Nickel) were yet to report. However, Mineweb understands ConsMins' March quarter result on nickel mining at the Beta Hunt operation will be tempered by the cost of mining development out to the Alpha area.

However, today Sally Malay Mining put out a joint report with Thundelarra Exploration on planned development of the Copernicus joint venture area near Sally Malay Mining's Sally Malay mine in the North Kimberleys of Western Australia. The partners hope to award an open pit mining contract for Copernicus in October and to begin treatment of ore at the Sally Malay plant in April 2008.

Thundelarra will retain 40% of Copernicus which has a measured to inferred resource of 852,000t grading 1.242% nickel, 0.691% copper and 0.039% cobalt. Thundelarra's chairman Phil Crabb told Mineweb that a new deep drilling programme will begin soon to help plumb the depths of Copernicus which at the end of open cut mining will go underground.

About three years ago Thundelarra, frustrated with what it saw as inaction on Copernicus, took legal action against Sally Malay and the matter was resolved by re-activated exploration which found depth extentions to the orebody.

Meanwhile, Independence reported record production of 75,035t grading 4.06% Ni being delivered to the Kambalda concentrator owned by BHP Billiton, and said it had cash costs below budget -- $A3.70/lb ($US3.05/lb) of payable nickel.

Exploration on the McLeay shoots 1 and 2 - accessed from the Long shaft at Kambalda - continued to extend south through exploration, and new drill hits included 6.8 metres @ 5.5% Ni and 4.5m @ 10.9% Ni.

The company reported in a presentation that it now holds $A78.7 M ($US65.01 M) cash and was paying out $A6.9 M ($US5.7 M) in shareholder dividends.

Mincor said today its current cash and receivables net of creditors and accruals, stands at $A107.4 M ($US88.7 M) with no debt. Its March quarter result took in an additional $A20 M ($US16.5 M) revenue recognised for the December quarter, based on final nickel settlement prices.

The nickel price has been good to Australian nickel miners in the March quarter rising to record levels

Kambalda gained a new lease of life when the original owner of the mines on the Kambalda and Widgiemooltha domes - WMC Resources Ltd - began selling off its troubled and its mothballed mines, with the first taker being Mincor Resources which reopened the Miitel mine in 2002.

WMC ha

[tricha]

No End In Sight For Nickel Strength
27/04/2007 By: Greg Peel

2006 saw an interesting development in the global nickel market. As prices surged to new, previously unthought of highs, a new market developed in "direct shipping laterite ore" which actually had the effect of reducing the 2006 deficit below that which had been previously anticipated.

But even this had little effect on the price.

Nickel ore is found globally in two major forms – sulphide and laterite. Laterite is exceedingly more abundant at 72% of known resources, yet sulphide represents 58% of nickel production. This is because nickel laterites suffer from complex mineralogy, notoriously low grades and very high processing costs. Laterite mining has a history of longer-than-expected production ramp-ups and cost overruns. On average, one hundred tonnes of laterite ore needs to be mined and processed to produce one tonne of nickel.


Advertisement

Because of the high cost of laterite processing, smaller miners have previously not bothered with this abundant source as the cost exceeded the potential revenue. But now that the nickel price is in excess of US$23/lb, laterite ore can be processed commercially. Smaller miners do not have to invest in expensive processing plants. Instead, they simply ship the ore and sell it to supply-starved plants that have this capacity already. The high cost of shipping so much ore still falls short of prices achieved. Thus we now have a market in "direct shipping" laterite ore. Most of 2006's supply came from the Philippines and New Caledonia.

Canaccord Adams had previously predicted a global nickel deficit of 50,000t in 2006, but the end result was 28,000t due to the laterite invasion. If there's a lot more of this stuff lying around, then one could assume the nickel price will soon come under threat. Nearly all of the world's major currently proposed greenfield projects are laterite.

However, Canaccord is not assuming this to be the case. Were the nickel price to slip below its current levels, laterite mining, due to its high costs, would be the first to cease. Thus there is still a price support mechanism.

Canaccord estimates global nickel supply reached 1.34mt last year, representing a 4% increase. Demand reached 1.37mt, for a very strong consumption growth of 7.4%. And we all know where that came from.

While the Western world increased its nickel consumption by 4.4% in 2006, which was a stark rebound from the 4.7% fall of 2005, Chinese consumption increased by a ridiculous 25%, exceeding even the ridiculous figure of 23.5% in 2005. The major driver all round was a 12.4% increase in global stainless production. Global inventories at the end of 2006 had fallen, on Canaccord's estimates, to a very low 86,000t, or 3.3 weeks of consumption.

For 2007 Canaccord sees supply growth of 7.2% to 1.44mt, bolstered by direct shipping laterite ore. Consumption is expected to be 1.45mt, representing growth of 5.9%. China will contribute 17.4% and the Western world 3.5%. The deficit will fall to 13,000t, but available nickel inventories will fall to 73,000t or 2.6 weeks of consumption.

As we progress into time, Canaccord still cannot see supply outstripping demand. 2008 should bring 1.49mt of nickel but consumption will 1.52mt. The supply figure includes delays to Inco's giant Goro project and BHP Billiton's (BHP) Ravensthorpe project, still offset by direct shipping laterite ore. Inventories will fall to 45,000t or 1.5 weeks. This will be considered critical.

By 2009 several new projects should have started up, but tightness will remain. Production will reach 1.56mt and consumption 1.59mt. Following the Beijing Olympics Chinese consumption growth will fall to 9.6%. In theory, at this point all available nickel inventories will have been consumed. If there are no stocks available, says Canaccord, then only a high price for nickel can reduce demand.

Thus the implication i

[duncan macgregor]

ANYONE with any idea about the trading halt on AGM is all about please share your info. MACDUNK
DISCL holding and hoping:D:D

[Brut]

Duncan, not sure why but could be something big??? I did notice that GUY opened up over 20% today (GUL own 23,500,000 AGM shares) Could be takeover talks or Capital Raising...

[tricha]

Nickel Surcharges Rise to Record on Use, Inventory, Calyon Says

By Brett Foley

May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel surcharges paid by stainless- steel makers and other users of the metal rose to a record because of soaring demand from China and dwindling inventory, said Calyon, the investment-banking unit of Credit Agricole SA.

The average surcharge for Europe, the U.S. and Japan is $1,355 a ton, Calyon's London-based metals analyst Michael Widmer said in a report yesterday.

The surcharge, known as a premium, is paid by users on top of the benchmark London Metal Exchange price to release metal from warehouses. Changes in premiums typically reflect the availability of metal in key trading locations such as Rotterdam and Singapore.

Stockpiles of nickel, which is mostly used to make stainless steel, have slumped 82 percent on the past year. Demand for stainless steel in China and delays to new nickel projects have contributed to ``tight'' market conditions, Widmer said. Nickel prices on the LME rose to a record on April 24.

``Stainless-steel production in China is sucking up so much of the available nickel that everyone else has difficulty finding the material,'' Widmer said yesterday in a telephone interview.

The average premium paid in U.S. locations was $1,400 a ton, $1,764 in Europe and $904 in Japan, Widmer said.

China's output of stainless steel may rise 37 percent this year to 7.35 million tons, metals research firm Heinz H. Pariser said March 21. Delays and cost increases have affected nickel projects under development by BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest miner, and Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce.

New nickel production won't be enough to meet increasing demand due to underinvestment in previous years, Widmer said. Output and demand will be ``roughly balanced'' this year, he added.

Calyon is among the 11 companies that trade on the LME's dealing floor.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 2, 2007 05:05 EDT

[ghosta]

Note that many overseas nickel stocks rose 15-20% overnight, one of the best days EVER!

Will it translate into our market today?

With AGM the best performing stock (no surprise) will we see $1.50 by the end of next week? I think thats optomistic; it is more likely by the end of the financial year. But some hold that view.

But holders of all Nickel stocks- lets hope todays a good one!

[tricha]

It's out there - $64,000 OZ a ton for Nickel.

Just imagine the profit for all Nickel Producers for this quarter.

And the take over Mania still happening.AGM in play at the moment with Jinchuan getting cheap discounted shares, to bad about the existing shareholders :(, I guess the piggy directors do not care. I mean they should have been offered to all shareholders 1st, shouldn't have they [?][?]

Now Nickel racing along could BHP decide to take out MCR, IGO and SMY, or are they content to let them do all the hard work.

WSA and JBM, both excellent deposits, but big parcels held tightly by directors, what price will they command [?][?][?]

LSG truely under the hammer.:(

MRE well it looks like Barclays are hunting to stop a full takeover or want a big commission for their share of the pie[:p]

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[ghosta]

"And the take over Mania still happening.AGM in play at the moment with Jinchuan getting cheap discounted shares, to bad about the existing shareholders , I guess the piggy directors do not care. I mean they should have been offered to all shareholders 1st, shouldn't have they "

What a strange thing to post!

Existing shareholders will benefit hugely from this share issue long term. A hugely signifant event well recognised by the market.

When you have been about the sharemarket for a little longer you will realise that share issues like this are nearly always at a discount. And this was the case at the last shareholder issue where shareholders got 10% discount.

Tricha for someone who posts a lot here you have a great deal yet to learn!

[duncan macgregor]

I am a share holder of AGM and approve of this so called discount buy in. The buyer is giving a lot more than he is getting. He gives stability, plus finance at a time when the company requires it. He also gives an insurance policy against a hostile take over. I bought in just over four months ago at a much lower price than this so called discounted buy so i ended up with a better discount from only four months ago. MACDUNK

[tricha]

U have got a very short term memory problem Ghosta - "I agree that this practice, which is quite legal and commonly adopted, stinks."
I can not be bothered going back to what u wrote about it on Hotcopper
Ghosta.

Further more TFE had a share issue recently, they got a huge premium for them [:p] But unlike AGM, dodgy.

Unfortunately AGM now running on hype and are over valued, for 750 million shares and a lousy 8,000 tons of nickel

Cheers[B)][}:)]

[ghosta]

Tricha please stop posting in giant letters, I know you want to be noticed, but its offensive.

The practice I was referring to that you highlighted was directors issuing shares to directors.

Your jealousy as to the continued sucess of AGM seem unabated. I can tell you now this sucess will continue and that unless you buy in now, you will have to be content to watch us all grow rich from the sidelines. You seem to get angrier and angrier as your jealousy grows. This is a shame. Just because you were unable to pick AGM as an obvious winner doesnt mean you are a failure in life.

[JoeKing]

Tricha
grow up.... Ghosta is right, your use of big lettering is obtrusive, offensive, annoying and really does pizst people off.
Agree with Ghosta regards your attitude AGM.
Ok you missed out here, let it rest.
Cheers
JK

[JBmurc]

Cash rich MCR already holding some TTR wouldn't take much for MCR to own all of TTR-Nickel,gold,copper,silver,plant-current sp 9.5c(NTA-12c analyst valued TTR 25c+ in 06 )

-Only wish the TTR holders would sell me some more of there Shares;) Cheap


From a previous Mincor announcement - The tenement lies on the eastern flank of the Ravensthorpe Greenstone Belt, approximately 300 kilometres south-west of Kambalda. Tectonic mined the Rav 8 ore body between 2000 and 2005, extracting 15,931 tonnes of nickel metal from 460,169 tonnes of ore at a grade of 3.46% nickel. Mining ceased upon exhaustion of the known ore reserves;), at the comparatively shallow depth of 270 metres below surface.

Mincor said it believed the Rav 8 tenement held outstanding exploration potential for further nickel
sulphide mineralisation, at shallow depths and close to existing underground infrastructure. Immediate
target areas include the zone directly down-plunge of the old mine, where previous exploration drilling
extended no further than approximately 60 metres beyond the old workings.

"We are very pleased to have reached this agreement with Tectonic”, said Mincor’s managing director
David Moore, “it adds a substantial new asset to our portfolio of nickel growth projects".

Moore said that Mincor believed the Rav 8 tenement held the same potential that the Company had
identified at Carnilya Hill, where mineralisation that apparently terminated at a relatively shallow depth
was subsequently found to re-form further down plunge.

[sparrow]

Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!

I can't find any forum rule that says you can't post important statements in larger type.

Tricha, please continue to post as often as you like, in whatever format you like, and keep all us metal junkies up to date.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by sparrow

Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!

I can't find any forum rule that says you can't post important statements in larger type.

Tricha, please continue to post as often as you like, in whatever format you like, and keep all us metal junkies up to date.
I would like to second that. TRICHA has brought to my attention shares that I might have overlooked. Keep up the ramping I am making heaps from some of the shares you brought to my attention.
MACDUNK.
Hold AGM,SMY,MCR,IGO.on your market

[JBmurc]

-IMHO nothing wrong with Tricha's bold writing -Investors should be more concerned with what's in BOLD

[ghosta]

Patricia wouldnt be tolerated on an Australian forum site, posting old news and Bold letters to draw attention to himself.
But hey this is a NZ site!

[Gofor Broke]

quote:Originally posted by sparrow

Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!

I can't find any forum rule that says you can't post important statements in larger type.

Tricha, please continue to post as often as you like, in whatever format you like, and keep all us metal junkies up to date.

<h1>I agree with</h1><h2>sparrow there</h2><h2> are no rules that say you cannot</h2><h1> use large text or</h1> colored <h2>font on this forum,that is what theforum code is for.I think there should be lots more interestingimages</h2>http://www.gorillafingers.com/web_images/about_gorilla.jpg <h1>as well so the pages can take longer to</h1><h3>load and fill up</h3><h1> quicker. keep up the good work tricha.</h1>http://www.oneposter.com/UserData/Poster/Poster_5456.jpg

[whiteheron]

There is nothing wrong with being BOLD if it is important !!!

I only wish that I knew how to do it

[tricha]

JBmurc - Cash rich MCR already holding some TTR wouldn't take much for MCR to own all of TTR-Nickel,gold,copper,silver,plant-current sp 9.5c(NTA-12c analyst valued TTR 25c+ in 06 )

-Only wish the TTR holders would sell me some more of there Shares Cheap

I've been trying to buy this penny dreadful all week a bit cheaper JBmurc, bit the bullet today.

Also bought another dog Cullen Resources today @ 4.4 cents, Forestina Nickel venture with Hannahs Reward and U tenaments.
More on it all later, lunch time.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by sparrow

Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!


About 36 of those 37 posts are either ramping AGM to the hilt or abusing anyone who doesn't agree with him. Quality contributions indeed.

[ghosta]

quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal


quote:Originally posted by sparrow

Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!


About 36 of those 37 posts are either ramping AGM to the hilt or abusing anyone who doesn't agree with him. Quality contributions indeed.


Quality... not quantity. Ive offered what has turned out to be absolutely excellent information to readers of this and other Forums. There are a lot of grateful people who were smart enough to follow my and others advice on AGM.

Funny thing, though, those that didnt buy AGM seem to be extremely jealous and have posted sour postings here. A shame.

Meanwhile AGM is STILL the best buy of the nickel stocks as production approaches. Many believe the SP will be $2.50 by Christmas. I believe the figure is right, but dont know when this price will be achieved- could be within six months of either side of Christmas time.

[wns]

quote:
Funny thing, though, those that didnt buy AGM seem to be extremely jealous and have posted sour postings here. A shame.


From memory, Tricha was buying MCR a bit over a year ago between 60-70c and at one stage had about 100,000 MCR shares. They are now $3.85 and pretty sure he's still got most of them. Do the maths on that, I don't think he's jealous of anyone who's made good gains on AGM.

I think its a pretty normal reaction to be a bit peeved at someone who has a negative view of a stock you hold. I've felt that way myself but it pays to move past that. I think its healthy to hear differing views and opinions. And sometimes its a good idea to pay attention to someone who holds a negative view of a company, because maybe they've got a good point. I'm not saying that Tricha's view of AGM is "right" and ghosta and others are "wrong", just speaking in general terms.

[ghosta]

Heres an article from the Australian. Its time to take your profits from nickel shares- the exception being AGM which presently priced on nickel at $14000 US a tonne.

COPPER, nickel and lead, the best-performing commodities in the past four months, might be the worst by year's end.

On Wall Street, a growing chorus is insisting that rising metal supplies are outpacing demand. From Goldman Sachs to JP Morgan Chase to Societe Generale, there are warnings of a mania that is showing all the signs of a climax.

"This is a real bubble," says metals trader David Threlkeld, who first got the world's attention in 1996 when he showed that Sumitomo's copper hoarding would lead to a market collapse.

"We have an enormous amount of unsold copper," says Mr Threlkeld, president of Resolved.

The metals bears are convinced that consumption might drop partly because China, the biggest user, is attempting to reduce investment through interest rate increases and lending curbs after its economy expanded 11.1 per cent in the first quarter.

Also weakening demand is a slowing US economy and a consumer-driven pursuit of alternatives to historically expensive copper and nickel, according to Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.

Copper will decline 30 per cent to an average of $US5650 ($6780) a tonne in the fourth quarter from more than $US8000 today, according to the median of 12 analysts' forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Nickel and lead will drop about 50 per cent from last week's record prices to $US24,450 a tonne for nickel and $US1000 for lead, the data show.

The anticipated slump would depress exports from Australia, Canada and Chile, wipe out more than $US22 billion ($26.5 billion) on the London Metal Exchange and squeeze the profits at mining companies, including BHP Billiton, the world's largest.

Many of the bears have been wrong so far this year. An investor who acted on the advice of JP Morgan missed gains of 67 per cent for nickel, 30 per cent for copper and 41 per cent for lead, the best-performing commodities in the 26-member UBS Bloomberg CMCI index.

That compares with a 6.2 per cent increase for the S&P 500 index and 2 per cent for US Treasuries, according to Merrill Lynch indexes.

"We're sticking to our guns" because "prices are unsustainable", says London-based Jon Bergtheil, head of global metals strategy at the bank. Nickel might average $US35,328 a tonne in 2007, down from $US51,600, because stainless steel makers might buy less in the second half, he says.

In February, Bergtheil said that nickel would decline 25 per cent in 2007. The metal, used to make stainless steel, has since gained 40 per cent.

Nickel might plunge to $US30,000 a tonne by the end of 2008 because the current level is "overdone", Goldman Sachs analysts led by James Gutman say. "There is a risk of longer-term demand destruction."

Stainless steel producers are cancelling orders, he says. His colleague in London, Jeffrey Currie, head of global commodities research, is less bearish, saying he expects metals prices to be "trading sideways" this year.

World supplies of copper outpaced demand by about 50,000 tonnes in the first quarter, Stockholm-based copper producer Boliden AB says. Global output rose 8 per cent in the period, twice as much as demand, the company says.

In Chile, the world's biggest supplier of the metal, production jumped 13 per cent in March as high prices encouraged miners to increase supply. Output rose to 502,106 tonnes from 442,410 tonnes a year earlier, the Santiago-based National Statistics Institute says.

Nickel stockpiles tracked by the LME are up almost 60 per cent since dropping in February to 2982 tonnes, their lowest since July 1991 and barely enough to supply the world for a day.

Lead inventories are also rising, up 42 per cent since March on the LME, to 43,825 tonnes. A surplus of 25,000 tonnes of lead might exist next year, from a deficit of 35,000 tonnes forecast this year, Natixis Commodity Markets says.

The metal's record price

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by ghosta

Its time to take your profits from nickel shares- the exception being AGM which presently priced on nickel at $14000 US a tonne.


Boy have you got a lot to learn about the stockmarket.

I assure you that if there is a nickel price correction that AGM and the other nickel developers will be trashed more than the nickel producers.

AGM fell more than 50% in the last correction, far more than any nickel producer.

Long term predictions for nickel are $14000 per tonne and AGM isn't producing in the short term so AGM is being fully valued.

[ghosta]

Heavy Metal you make me laugh!

When you learn a bit about nickel and nickel shares you can post here, but while you have NFI it may be better not to post as you look so foolish!

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by ghosta

When you learn a bit about nickel and nickel shares you can post here, but while you have NFI it may be better not to post as you look so foolish!



AGM forecast 09PE of 12 vs Jubilee 11 - that's crazy pricing for an unproven nickel developer vs producer sitting on a world class deposit. AGM is currently priced for perfection.

Your one-liner ramp and abuse style might be typical Hotcopper behaviour but it's not welcome here. Might be time for the moderator to step in.

[tricha]

Maybe we call in GHOSTBUSTERS!

Actually I've stuck it on ignore ;)

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[denpal]

Gee some Ni stocks I follow have had a huge day! For example GME, EYE, ALB, FCN; breakouts all over the place.

:D

[ghosta]

Yes lets hope the article is wrong and we dont have to sell of our nickel stocks (except for AGM of course) But I dont think they meant that nickel would necessarily fall THIS WEEK, I think they thought later in the year. So that give us time to get out of stocks that are going to be overvalued if the price drops.

Thats if you think they are right.

[etrader]

As the article showed doom sayers have been proven wrong many times, no one wants an explosive bubble then bang down they all go but looking at the fundamentals behinds the increase, a lot of the resources were supressed so it needed some catch up, how far you ride the wave is your choice.

[tricha]

Nickel May Rise 20% on Smelter Shortage, Credit Suisse Says

By Madelene Pearson

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The price for nickel, used to make stainless steel, may rise 20 percent as a shortage of smelters to process ore into metal constrains supply, Credit Suisse Group said in a report.

Nickel may reach $65,000 a metric ton in the ``near term,'' Credit Suisse London-based analysts led by Jeremy Gray and Eily Ong said in a report dated May 16. Smelting output may grow at 4.6 percent this year compared with demand growth as high as 5 percent should stainless steelmakers rebuild inventories and global economic growth increase, the report said.

Nickel for immediate delivery rose to a record $54,050 a metric ton in London on May 15 as China's economic growth fueled demand for the metal. Cost overruns and delays at BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Ravensthorpe and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce's Goro projects, the two largest nickel mines under construction, exacerbated supply shortfalls, helping drive price increases.

``Prices will remain strong over the next two years given the lack of supply growth until 2009 at the earliest,'' Gray and Ong wrote in the report. ``The current profile of new smelters is unlikely to be enough to feed ongoing strong demand from the stainless steel industry in the next two years.''

Nickel for immediate delivery rose $1,800, or 3.5 percent, to $54,025 a ton on May 18. Prices have jumped 155 percent in the past year as inventories plunged 78 percent to an amount equal to less than two days of global consumption.

Only three of 11 nickel mine and smelter projects under way, including Ravensthorpe and Goro, will start production before 2010, the analysts said.

Risk of Delay

``Any delay in the 2008 startup of Ravensthorpe and the 2009 startup of Goro will clearly make our global smelter growth forecasts of 4.6 percent in 2007 and 5.3 percent growth in 2008 look too aggressive and would help underpin the current strength in nickel prices,'' the report said.

The forecast by Credit Suisse compares to the $55,000 a ton estimate of Standard Bank analyst Michael Skinner made April 26.

Prices are expected to stay ``strong'' over the next two years given the lack of smelter supply growth until 2009, the report said. They may also gain should an anticipated increase in production of lower grade ferro nickel from China be overestimated, the analysts wrote.

``The strength in today's nickel price is a good lead indicator to suggest that the ramp up of Chinese production is clearly taking longer than expected to make an impact,'' they said. ``Our suspicion is that the ramp up of Chinese production will not make a significant dent in global supply until 2009 at the earliest.''

The bank is assuming demand growth of 3 percent this year, rising to 5 percent should stainless steelmakers build inventories in the third quarter. A ``pronounced'' cutback to stainless steel production may damp demand for nickel and threaten prices, Credit Suisse wrote.

To contact the reporter on this story: Madelene Pearson in Melbourne on mpearson1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 20, 2007 20:50 EDT

[tricha]

Double edged sword, has the worm turned or is this just a glitch.[?][?][?]

Nickel Falls as Stockpiles Signal Slowing Usage; Copper Rises

By Brett Foley

May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell to a two-month low in London as an increase in stockpiles fueled speculation stainless-steel producers are reducing usage of the metal. Copper gained.

Inventories of nickel tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose for a fourth day, the exchange said in a daily report, taking the gain this week to 44 percent. Stainless-steel makers such as ThyssenKrupp AG, the world's biggest, and South Korea's Posco have said they plan to increase output of nickel-free products to cut costs.

``Until recently the market has been ignoring a number of bearish factors such as clear signs that demand in the stainless-steel market has slowed and increasing levels of substitution,'' Stephen Briggs, an analyst at Societe Generale in London, said today in a telephone interview. ``Rising stockpiles have been the trigger for a change in sentiment.''

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME fell $400, or 0.9 percent, to $45,800 a metric ton as of 9:26 a.m. local time, paring this year's gain to 37 percent. Earlier, the contract fell as low at $45,100, the lowest since March 30.

Nickel production will outpace usage by 70,000 metric tons this year, the International Nickel Study Group said May 14. Stockpiles monitored by the LME rose by 5.4 percent to 7,200 metric tons today. They surged 27 percent yesterday, the most since Sept. 11, 2003.

Among other LME-traded metals, copper advanced $79, or 1.1 percent, to $7,280 a ton, aluminum added $1 to $2,822 and zinc increased $19 to $3,669. Lead slid $10 to $2,120 a ton and tin lost $25 to $13,800.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: May 24, 2007 04:47 EDT

[tricha]

Is this a red alert or a red herring[?][?][?][?]

STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCERS SET TO ACTIVELY PROMOTE NICKEL-FREE GRADES

The global stainless steel scene is changing rapidly. Customer backlash against the rising cost of nickel has been taken on board by the producers. Mills are now taking seriously market demand for low or non nickel grades.

Posco has launched a nickel free stainless steel into its portfolio. This follows similar actions earlier by Japanese producers. Outokumpu, which has traditionally been mainly a supplier of austenitic grades, is to increase its production of ferritic types. This has involved a significant investment in new equipment. Output of ferritic grades is also to be expanded from the new melting shop at Lianzhong, in China.

Global supplies of 300 series material have in the past formed 75 percent of total stainless deliveries. It is interesting to note that Thyssen Krupp recently announced that it may lift output of nickel free steel from the existing figure of 30 percent up to 35 percent. We have reports that an Arcelor Mittal senior executive sees the potential to push up production of non nickel grades to 70 percent in the long term.

The growth in nickel demand in the future is likely to be slower than the overall expansion of the stainless steel sector. This is even more probable now that the producers are investing in new facilities to manufacture ferritic specifications. This fresh capacity will be actively promoted by the mills which was not the case in the past.

This situation proves the point that clever speculation on the LME can only work for a limited period. Any commodity can be priced to unacceptable levels but eventually market fundamentals will prevail. When the price of a product becomes excessive, buyers will seek out substitute materials or in this case grades. 31.05.2007

Source: MEPS - Stainless Steel Review - click here for a free sample copy.

Now Available - MEPS Steel Prices On-Line is now forecasting stainless steel prices. Click here for more details

[Viking]

This is very good example of free market mechanism for the textbook. Nevertheless, the price will stay at a reasonable level and the revenue for those mining company sustained for another period until the subsitute been roll out and accepted by the consumers.

At $50,000 /ton seem too good to be true, and those news just justify that. Perhaps somewhere between $30,000 ~ $40,000 /ton will be more sustainable?? [:I] me no expert~ but if price drop to lower range, how many of the miner can stand?

[whiteheron]

Viking

$30,000 to $40,000 per tonne is still a very favourable price for nickel miners. The nickel price did not reach $30,000 until late 2006 and many miners were making very healthy profits at prices far below this before that time

If a mine is not profitable at $30,000 per tonne nickel then dont touch it --- it will be a big dog !

[Viking]

Very true Whiteheron~
A very quick thought~ where can we find the average price (for a specific period of time) a mine company sold their material for? I remember seen it somewhere though the spot price of Ni in LME was hitting $40,000/ton but MCR's average contracted rate was only around $24,000 at the time. Know how much they are selling could give us very good idea of how profitable they are, doesn't? besides, we could also be cleared from the false impression of the high spot price of the metal. [:I]

[whiteheron]

Viking

If you have a look at a recent Quarterly Report for MCR on the ASX announcements site you will probably get the info you are looking for

Remember that MCR only gets 65 % of the nickel price from BHPs Cambalda smelter --- BHP get the balance for smeltering, refining, marketing etc
Also MCR has around 30 % of its production hedged at less than current nickel prices
These, and other things all go into the final results achieved

MCR is an absolutely choice company --- it was hugely underpriced but is now nearer true value, although in my opinion would still be a very worthwhile long term hold
And just elevated into the ASX 200 making it more attractive to institutions

[Viking]

Thank you, Whiteheron~[^]
Got all the information there :) yes that A$24,242 per tonne in the report was that number in the back of my mind ~~ hehehe....

[tricha]

China's Demand for Nickel Could Hit 400,000 Tonnes by 2010

By Interfax-China
30 May 2007 at 09:54 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's demand for nickel might hit 400,000 tonnes in 2010 on growing demand from the stainless steel industry and battery production, an official with the Ministry of Land Resources said at the China Nickel 2007 conference today.

"China's nickel raw materials supply will remain tight until 2010, and more than half of that supply will be reliant on imports," Zhang Mei, a researcher with the Information Center under the MLR said.




China will only be able to supply 124,000 tonnes of nickel domestically by 2010 due to limited mining production in China, Zhang said.

China had verified nickel ore reserves of 9.51 million tonnes as of 2005, spread over 97 sites, with 98% of the mining sites under full production. Gansu Province has 56.3% of the country's total nickel reserves, while 34.6% of reserves are located in other provinces, including Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan and Qinhuai.

In March, Gansu Province-based Jinchuan Nickel Group, a company that controls 90% of China’s nickel output, reduced its 2007 nickel export target to 3,000 tonnes due to pressure from the increased export tax raised by state regulators.

Jinchuan's nickel exports for the first quarter of the year reached 1,100 tonnes, according to the company.

China raised its nickel export tax from 2% to 15% last November, as part of a state macro-control policy to impede on high-energy consuming industries and narrow the growing trade surplus.

Zhang said around two-thirds of nickel demand comes from the stainless steel industry and stainless steel output may hit 9 million tonnes in 2010.

China's stainless steel output was 3.6 million tonnes last year, swelling 67.72% from the previous year. China produced 419 million tonnes of crude steel in 2006, up 18.5% from a year earlier.

In the first quarter of this year, China imported 2.2 million tonnes of primary nickel ore, while imports in March stood at 1.03 million tonnes, representing an 80.7% increase from the previous month.

Last year, China imported 3.78 million tonnes of nickel ore, a 6.8 fold increase compared with the previous year, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs.

Total nickel ore imports amounted to RMB 3.41 billion ($440 million) in 2006, 1.5 times the amount for 2005. However, average import prices declined by 67.7% to RMB 903.26 ($116.40) per tonne.

Indonesia and the Philippines are the major countries that export nickel to China.

China's nickel ore imports from the Philippines reached 3.34 million tonnes, up 11.6% from 2005, which accounted for 88.5% of China's total nickel ore imports. In 2005, China's imports were mainly from Australian nickel mines.

© Interfax-China 2007.

This article comes from Interfax China Commodities Daily, a daily digest produced by Interfax News Agency in Mainland China. To receive 10 free copies of this, please e-mail david.harman@interfax-news.com.

[tricha]

If u want pure Nickel, go smell the coffee[:p]

Resource Stocks Mag June edition- article of WSA
Too long to write can order online.
quote"A bright new star and heir to the Jubilee crown is Western Areas, which brought its Flying Fox project in WA's Forrestania Belt, 400km east of Perth in Production in December last Year."
quote"WSA flagship flying fox mine is one of the highest grade nickel deposits in the world with projected costs of $2.43 a pound, making it the lowest cost producer in Australia."quote" Its is a measure of the recent takeover inspired decimation of the Canadian resources sector that WSA 2008 production of 8000t will make the dual listed company the largest Canadian-listed pure nickel producer"
quote"with over 208,000t of total project mineable nickel worth over $12.5billion, the company aims to have three operational mines"
Grab a copy of Resource stocks article on all nickel produces in australia.
WSA stands out

[tricha]

Update - Comment - Ever read something that just made you shake your head? We really thought we could be in big trouble with nickel prices today, when we read that Jindal Stainless of India was reporting increased usage of nickel. You may ask, so what? Well, according to a stock analysis of the company in 2005, Jindal called itself the "global leader in chrome manganese 200 series stainless with 10 years of R&D efforts to develop such a special grade". (source) One of the producers mainly responsible for pushing a less nickel content stainless on the world, one of the stainless substitutions we are hearing so much about, is now saying it's using more nickel! Good grief! Oh well, what should we expect from a country that thinks bulls are sacred!

[whiteheron]

There is no substitute for quality and I believe that nickel produces the BEST stainless steel known
PLEASE challenge me if you consider that I am wrong

I therefor consider that the demand for nickel will remain strong and see no likelyhood of a significant fall in demand --- in fact I see a continuation of nickel suppliers struggling to keep up with demand

Just the process of increasing stock levels to a more sustainable level may be quite a challenge for miners

[ghosta]

"AGM, with nickel dropping will find it harder to get to mining stage"

Patricia has no idea about these shares and sold hers at 33c, thinking it was top. She doesnt realise that the company is stockpilimng ore and just finishing their processing plant. Present SP of $0.96c prices nickel at around $10000US/ tonne, so huge upside will see this share at $2+ by Xmas, probably earlier.

This stock always was going to be the pick of the nickel stocks and so it is showing itself to be.

Recently oversold in last nickel "scare" so priced for a bargain entry at the moment.

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by ghosta

"AGM, with nickel dropping will find it harder to get to mining stage"

Patricia has no idea about these shares and sold hers at 33c, thinking it was top. She doesnt realise that the company is stockpilimng ore and just finishing their processing plant. Present SP of $0.96c prices nickel at around $10000US/ tonne, so huge upside will see this share at $2+ by Xmas, probably earlier.

This stock always was going to be the pick of the nickel stocks and so it is showing itself to be. Entry into ASX200 later this month will provide an immediate boost.

Recently oversold in last nickel "scare" so priced for a bargain entry at the moment.


mate...you are living in fantasy land.

MCR & SMY join the ASX200 on 15 June.

When does AGM enter the ASX200??

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

mate...you are living in fantasy land.

MCR & SMY join the ASX200 on 15 June.

When does AGM enter the ASX200??



Don't prick his little fantasy bubble, he is not of this world anyway. Nor are his fantasy ideas that AGM is bulletproof in any correction.

[ghosta]

"Nor are his fantasy ideas that AGM is bulletproof in any correction."

You are about to learn something Heavy Metal.....

Current nickel producers like JBM and SMY etc have risen dramatically in recent times in response to the current high nickel prices. Should a significant reduction in the price of nickel occur- say 50% drop- then these share will drop in price. There will probably be an over reaction and the shares will settle to a value less than what they are priced at now.

A share like AGM which is about to sell its first batch of nickel in 4-6 months time will not be fully valued until it is actually producing. The market allows a considerable margin for risk, as the mining industry traditionally runs overbudget and over time. Agm looks like coming in on budget and perhaps even early. Remarkable. But the market out there has assigned the normal risk margin to the project because like some of the posters on this site, they dont know any better.

In fact a regular poster on this site thought that if nickel prices dropped it would make it harder for AGM to start production. A strange remark really as it would not make one iota of difference. But thats how ignorant most people who havent done any research are!

So if the price of nickel dropped 50% AGM would suffer a drop in its SP by default. It too would be oversold. In the meantime the companies sales begin. The SP of the company would rise in response as the startup risk factor has gone. And guess what- the SP would rise above its PRESENT level till it reached a value commensurate with the nickel price.

Heavy Metal you probably didnt realise it but now you know one reason why AGM is a better buy than existing producers if you are concerned that there may be a drop in the nickel price! Unlike with existing producers you wouldnt have to GUESS the appropriate time to sell out- you just hang on to the shares and your a sure winner!

[JoeKing]

Ghosta
You are wasting your time trying to reason with the likes of heavy DUH! metal and Co. who have just graduated from middle skool and know evrything about nothing.
Maybe when IQ and age are about the same they might.... mmmm maybe... just MIGHT! be able to grasp something more than Janet meets John.
Meantime thanks for informative posts keep them coming, I am ignorantly happy to know my 300k AGM shares (ave 48c) are looking better with each passing day. Looking forward to ann. re. commissioning party so we can start arranging fares etc. Checked out Strahan links thanks... seems the little village has grown since I was last there 1989.
Cheers
JK

[steve fleming]

Ghosta

You made this following comment:


quote:Originally posted by ghosta

Entry into ASX200 later this month will provide an immediate boost.




According to S&P the only nickel stocks succesfully entering the ASX 200 in June are MCR & SMY...no sign of AGM that i can see.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/20070601IN_QuartRebal1.pdf

Are you please able to advise on what basis you made your statement??

hopefully this was not just another attempt at a ramp.....after all, you have already been suspended from hot copper after what you have said about AGM

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Ghosta

You made this following comment:


quote:Originally posted by ghosta

Entry into ASX200 later this month will provide an immediate boost.




According to S&P the only nickel stocks succesfully entering the ASX 200 in June are MCR & SMY...no sign of AGM that i can see.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/20070601IN_QuartRebal1.pdf

Are you please able to advise on what basis you made your statement??

hopefully this was not just another attempt at a ramp.....after all, you have already been suspended from hot copper after what you have said about AGM



Ahhh!

I see that you have now deleted that comment in your post.

Sorry for catching you out.

AGM is a pretty good stock, it doesn't need baseless ramps for it to do well.

[stolwyk]

http://www.purchasing.com/index.asp?layout=articlePrint&articleID=CA6428615

[Viking]

Thank you Stolwyk~


Could I ask a question may seem little silly, but~
the LME price curve, cash price at $50,445~ 15month at $38,870~
http://www.lme.co.uk/nickel.asp
Does that show that they also anticipate price to be lower in the longer term???

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

hopefully this was not just another attempt at a ramp.....after all, you have already been suspended from hot copper after what you have said about AGM

Looks like he was suspended for being exposed as a liar, spreading unfounded rumours, making threats as well as blatant ramping. Just a matter of time before he gets kicked off here. Some examples from Hotcopper:

Post 1:
"Hows this for a deal. Myer have these retail now $2999. This week 10% off Now $2700. Plus if you join up to their Mastercard at no cost no fees you get 10% off that. Price now $2430. This comes with No deposit 12 month interest free period, no payments due till Oct 07. So I signed my wife up to this card which we will just chuck in the drawer. She also joined (no cost) Myer reward card and will get $100 gift voucher in 3 months time. To top this off we had the cash ready to make the purchase so I bought shares in Allegiance mining @30c with the money, its already $32c and Ill probably get my Plasma for nothing."
Anyone get a better deal than this!

That's what ghosta posted about 1 year ago. He entered the stock at 32c. make of that what you will but to me it says it all. So much for long term holder from the bad old days of 5c.

Post 2:
Typo error. He entered at 30c and this was posted on the DTV forum in May 2006. Liar liar pants on fire ghosta!!


Post 3:
I love exposing liars and to think some of you guys thought he was the real deal. Just have a good read of what he posted. Are they the words of a real professional investor? Are they the words of a real big time shareholder? Getting really excited about saving the $2999 on the TV to put it into AGM at 30c and then get all excited that he might get the TV for nothing with the profits of AGM. Well at 94c, I reckon ghosta has more than paid for his TV. I reckon he is in front to the tune of a whopping $6400 profit on his purchase of 10,000 shares.
You be the judge.

[ghosta]

Heavymetal what a dope you are- you copy information posted on another forum and guess what its nearly all incorrect! It was posted on hotcopper by internet troll call "manure' perhaps you are that person!

(A troll is the term used to describe someone who posts madly with the sole objective of upsetting everyone on the forum)

You must learn to do research yourself- you might then make more than lunch money on the stock market.

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by ghosta

You must learn to do research yourself- you might then make more than lunch money on the stock market.

Yes I admit my research will never be as good as yours - it certainly was news to me that AGM was going to enter the ASX200 this month.

By the way, keep up those great posts, like your rumour that AGM is offering long term holders steep (and probably illegal) discounts for the SPP.


Anyone else hear anything about shareholder share purchase plan? Story floating around West Coast that shareholders less than 1 year get 5% disc, more than 1 year 10% disc Plus additional 10% for each previous shareholder purchase plan that you have supported.

Heard from one source only so cant be certain about it. But looks like a fair way of rewarding shareholders.

For me that’s 40% off! If SP drops to 90c then shares at 54c. If SP drops to 80c that’s 48c!

Yeehar Squealers- keep dumping those shares!

[STRAT]

Hell, You fellas are at it over here too. Does anyone really take anything they read on these sites as completely true? When someone makes a post I assume most do as I do and use that info as a starting point to investigate further. I have found even amounts of conflicting info regarding the future price of nickel everywhere I have looked. This after all is the most significant single factor determining the price of all our nickel stocks. I thought the point to this forum was to pool resources of information rather than to beat ones chest. You fellas really need to get out more. PS You have all in my opinion posted a lot of useful information and I thank you for that.

[duncan macgregor]

It is quite easy read up about different companies to get most of the information required. I start off by looking up companies being rampted by the over enthusiastic on this and other sites, then look them all up on the direct broking web site. I get all the news from the past few years, plus the charts, then look up commodity prices and forecasts for whatever it is. I like the rampers, I dont care if they ramp a whole heap of crap or tear each others eyes out, as long as they bring their twisted view points out for me to check out. All the bull dust and contradictory arguements makes me think that Nickel miners will all continue to trend up for the next 12 months at least. I only hold nickel stocks at the moment. MCR, AGM, SMY IGO, all doing very nicely thank you. They are doing so well that my trailing stop loss level, and time line has been dropped to 25% below the highest price. If it all hits the fan and either my stop loss gets triggered, or my time line, then I would still be 70pc up this year. Nickel is in very short supply and high demand, you really only need half a brain to work out what company is best suited. Macdunk

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

It is quite easy read up about different companies to get most of the information required. I start off by looking up companies being rampted by the over enthusiastic on this and other sites, then look them all up on the direct broking web site. I get all the news from the past few years, plus the charts, then look up commodity prices and forecasts for whatever it is. I like the rampers, I dont care if they ramp a whole heap of crap or tear each others eyes out, as long as they bring their twisted view points out for me to check out. All the bull dust and contradictory arguements makes me think that Nickel miners will all continue to trend up for the next 12 months at least. I only hold nickel stocks at the moment. MCR, AGM, SMY IGO, all doing very nicely thank you. They are doing so well that my trailing stop loss level, and time line has been dropped to 25% below the highest price. If it all hits the fan and either my stop loss gets triggered, or my time line, then I would still be 70pc up this year. Nickel is in very short supply and high demand, you really only need half a brain to work out what company is best suited. Macdunk
Duncan, Care to speculate on why AGM hasnt bounced back as well as the others in the last few days?

[ghosta]

Heavy Metal: each time you post you look even more foolish.

Anyone here heard anything more about the SPP plan and discounts? Hope it is true....great way of rewarding long term holders. dont know about legal problems, dont see any problems....

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by ghosta

Heavy Metal: each time you post you look even more foolish.

Anyone here heard anything more about the SPP plan and discounts? Hope it is true....great way of rewarding long term holders. dont know about legal problems, dont see any problems....
Only in your posts Ghosta. Where did you source the info?

[duncan macgregor]

STRAT, It seems logical that a none producing company on a steep uptrend will have more wild swings in sp than the others who are getting the benefit of the high nickel price at the moment. AGM will trend up faster than the others when it goes into full production. The price of nickel is what to look out for, keep that under close watch. AGM is a certainty for a fast rising trend when production gets under way, with a few wild swings before then. macdunk

[clearasmud]

Don't know if this is of interest.
Clearasmud

http://www.interfax.cn/displayarticle.asp?aid=23708&slug=CHINA-METALS-NICKEL

Interview: Nickel Institute comments on the future of the industry in China
Shanghai. April 30. INTERFAX-CHINA - Executives from the Nickel Institute shared with Interfax their insights on nickel use, the growth of nickel demand in China and the development of the nickel recycling industry.

Stephen Barnett, president of the Nickel Institute, and Peter Cutler, European director of market support and development, visited China last week for an internal meeting and to meet with China's nickel heavyweight, Gansu Jinchuan Group. They hope the Chinese firm will join the organization, and also expressed their opinion that there is plenty of future growth potential for nickel use in China, especially in the drive to create cleaner power stations, as opposed to the more traditional uses such as in engineering works, food and construction industries.

Demand in China will be increased by the growing demand for nickel-hydrogen batteries and aside from its use in the chemical, pharmaceutical and other industries, nickel will also play a significant role in pollution controlling emissions-cleaning equipment and waste water treatment facilities.

As nickel is the seventh most common element on the planet, the Nickel Institute is very optimistic that the metal will continue to be in use globally for the foreseeable future.

With main offices in London and Toronto, the Nickel Institute is a non-profit organization established in 2004 through the merger of two organizations, the Nickel Development Institute (NiDI) and the Nickel Producers Environmental Research Association (NiPERA). It represents the interests of most of the world's major nickel producers, and its members are responsible for 88 percent of all nickel production worldwide.

Interfax: In China, more than 65 percent of nickel production serves the downstream stainless steel industry. However, stainless steel makers face great pressure from soaring nickel prices, and many stainless steel makers, even major ones such as Baosteel Group and Taiyuan Iron and Steel Group (TISCO), plan to decrease nickel consumption through the development of new ferritic stainless steel products (non-nickel contained) or low nickel-contained stainless steel. Chinese experts are optimistic about consumption of ferritic stainless steel in the nation, which hopefully will increase to 40 percent of total stainless steel consumption. What are your opinions on this issue?

Barnett: I think the market responds on a supply and demand balance basis. People select different grades of stainless steel containing a nickel alloy that is most appropriate for use in a particular application, which is driven by the cost of the material and also by its properties, whether it is recyclable or not and the total value that material brings, such as in maintenance issues.

The nickel industry reached an all time production high last year of 1.4 million tons of primary nickel and a total of over 2 million tons including scrap. The nickel industry is investing billions of dollars in new capacity, most notably in Australia, Brazil, Canada and New Caledonia, which will come online over the next few years. The nickel industry is totally confident in reaching a balance, responding to the market by building new capacities.

Interfax: Do you think the high price is restraining China's nickel demand?

Barnett: It's a supply-demand balance. It's like any other market, the supply and demand are balanced by whatever the price of the material. That's how economics works. The costs will rise until the supply and demand are in balance. It's that simple.

Interfax: What is driving up China's nickel demand?

Barnett: China's industrialization is the main force driving up nickel demand. In China, nickel plays a large role in building and infrastructure construction, and a significant role in aircraft engines, power stations and pollution control devices used to improve

[tricha]

Excellent news out with coal contract prices going up significantly which implies that the boom is intact.
So upside for most nickel producers to maybe double again in the next 12 monthes and give some of the penny dreadfuls time to become multi baggers, E.G AUZ, CUL, TTR.

Cheers [}:)]

[b]Tight nickel market could see pressure from India – CVRD
The tight nickel market could see pressures increase further in the years ahead if India's burgeoning economy increases its use of the key stainless steelmaking ingredient, the chief financial officer of Brazilian miner Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO), or CVRD, said Thursday.

"Pressure from India is not yet included in the price," Fabio Barbosa said. "Demand could be even more intense if India effectively grows its use of the metal."

Barbosa made the comments during a presentation to Sao Paulo's Association of Analysts and Capital Markets Investment Professionals, or Apimec-SP.

He said that demand has continued to rise as China, India and other developing markets increase their production of stainless steel, with few new nickel projects coming on line to ease the shortage.

"The gap between supply and demand is growing rapidly," Barbosa said.

The tight market has pushed nickel prices to historically high levels, with the three-month contract price on the London Metals Exchange peaking at a record $51,800 a metric ton on May 9.

CVRD forecasts that nickel prices will remain elevated in a range between $40,000 and $45,000 a metric ton in 2008-09, unless the latent price pressures from India emerge, Barbosa said.

The imbalance between supply and demand should be maintained for several years, given that the current nickel projects under development won't be in operation until between 2009 and 2011, Barbosa said.

"Our expectations are very positive for the next few years – and decades," he said.

CVRD expects to produce 287,000 metric tons of nickel in 2007, up from pro-forma output of 251,000 tons in 2006. In October, the company completed its $17.6 billion purchase of Canadian nickel miner Inco.

Barbosa said the company so far is on target for a December 2008 completion of its much-troubled Goro project in the French territory of New Caledonia.

The Goro project is one of the world's largest nickel mines currently under development, with expected production capacity of 60,000 metric tons a year. Goro is seen as a key swing factor in the critically tight nickel market, as well as a key foothold for CVRD in its expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.

However, the mine has been beset with problems that have delayed its development amid rising costs. CVRD's final budget of $3.2 billion is up from initial expectations for development costs of $1.5 billion.

Commercial-scale production is expected to start in early 2009 and ramp up over an 18-month period to full capacity, Barbosa said.

"Our vision for this project is very positive because future expansion could come at much lower cost," he said, noting that development of Goro to its full potential could yield immense gains for the company. Goro has 120 million metric tons of nickel reserves.

CVRD's Onca Puma nickel project in Brazil's Para state is also scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter of 2008, Barbosa said. The $1.4 billion project is expected to start production in 2009, with output of 58,000 metric tons of nickel annually when it reaches full production.

According to Barbosa, CVRD plans to be the world's largest producer of nickel at a production of 500,000 metric tons a year by 2012.

Barbosa said that the company was unfazed by a recent surge in stainless steel alternatives, such as nickel-chromium pig iron or Posco's (PKX) nickel-less stainless steel. There is also increased use of stainless steel products relying on higher contents of manganese or molybdenum, the executive added.

"Demand is not waiting on supply," Barbosa sai

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

hopefully this was not just another attempt at a ramp.....after all, you have already been suspended from hot copper after what you have said about AGM


quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal

Looks like he was suspended for being exposed as a liar, spreading unfounded rumours, making threats as well as blatant ramping. Just a matter of time before he gets kicked off here.


Good job - Ghosta has been kicked off this site too. Good riddance.

Now back to talking nickel on this thread. Bit of a price correction that had to happen, so the so-called analysts are now calling the nickel price to halve by the end of 2007 on the basis of a 3 week stockpile increase? Give me a break.

Having said that, nickel stockpiles usually start rising around this time of year....

[tricha]

Down to $54,600 a ton OZ, still excellent coin, I certainly hope everyone locked in some profits, hence my interest in oilers of late;)

Nickel Falls to 10-Week Low After London Exchange Changes Rules

By Brett Foley

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell to a 10-week low, erasing its leading position this year on the London Metal Exchange, as stockpiles rose and the bourse imposed new rules to curb what one analyst described as ``collusive'' trading.

Two or more companies each holding 25 percent or more of LME-monitored nickel stockpiles now need to make more metal available to other buyers. Inventories tracked by the LME increased 2.4 percent to 8,604 tons, the highest since July 10.

``It's a clear signal that the LME plans to act against this type of collusive market behavior,'' said John Kemp, a London- based analyst at Sempra Metals Ltd., one of 11 companies trading on the floor of the LME. ``Stockpiles have been rising and there doesn't appear to be a shortage of physical metal.''

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME declined $2,150, or 4.7 percent, to $43,350 a metric ton as of 5:20 p.m. in London. Earlier, it fell 5.7 percent to $42,900, the lowest compared with intraday prices since March 28. Nickel has gained 30 percent this year, compared with 37 percent for lead. Nickel traded at a record $51,800 on May 9.

LME-monitored stockpiles have risen 29 percent this year. Prices probably will halve in the next several months as supply increases, Citigroup Inc. analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks said in a June 5 report.

Hedge funds are driving prices higher by speculating against metal producers that have sold forward their production in anticipation of lower prices, Citigroup said.

Nickel for immediate delivery is $1,350 a ton more expensive than the benchmark three-month contract, 52 percent below yesterday's rate. Such a decline in the so-called cash price indicates more availability of metal stored at LME-monitored warehouses.

Lending Fees

Lending fees for next-day delivery of the metal dropped 90 percent to $20 a ton, from yesterday's rate of $200.

The price of nickel may decline further if stainless-steel producers use more alternative materials to cut costs, Sempra's Kemp said. Companies such as South Korea's Posco, Finland's Outokumpu Oyj and Germany's ThyssenKrupp AG are promoting nickel- free or lower-nickel forms of stainless steel, Kemp said.

[stolwyk]

http://silverstockreport.com/2007/LME_nickel_theft.html

[Viking]

RE: stolwyk's link~

Wow, can they do that~ its like if the monetary policy gets tightened and money reserve is low~ bank can "instruct" us to "must lend our money" kind of thing, doesn't?

How would this translate for Ni market in the near future?

[leonchai]

Tricha "Down to $54,600 a ton OZ, still excellent coin, I certainly hope everyone locked in some profits, hence my interest in oilers of late"

Sit up ppl! Even Tricha the great metals bull is taking profits...we all better run for cover! :D

My biggest holding is now NWE and also taking a small punt in UKL and EMR with HRR a long term hold...but 50% cash, and trying to increase that...

Sold out of MCR, AGS, SMM a few weeks ago...

[STRAT]

If the LME are forcing Nickel owners to lend out their stock ( Which is theft and got to be a jail able offence in my book ) then this hardly equates to a surplus but rather desperate action in a shortage [:0]

[whiteheron]

STRAT

Here here
I have done a lot of research on nickel and I am totally convinced that demand is outstripping supply and will continue to do so for some considerable time

The nickel price may settle a bit but is in no danger of collapsing in my opinion, as some have suggested

Interesting times ahead !!!

[duncan macgregor]

WHITE HERON, I am in total agreement with you on that one, demand is greater than supply. They can fiddle the numbers,cheat,steal, do whatever, demand is still greater than supply. In the end thats all that counts. I see nickel producing mining stocks continue to trend up, until supply catches up with demand, which wont happen in the short to medium term. Macdunk

[tricha]

Just look at the way Oil stocks trended up then down on the price of oil in recent years.

Zinc did exactly the same thing late last year, but in a much shorter time frame, zinc stocks went up and the zinc price went down with the Zinc stocks corresponding to the zinc price.

You do not have to be a rocket scientist to work out Nickel stocks are rising and the price is plummenting.

Regardless if this is a only a short term blip ( six monthes ), once nickel cracks $20 and heads rapidly back to $16, do you really think the fund managers are going to sit on their nickel shares [?][?][?]
The big problem is these Fund Managers follow herd mentality and tend to over react.

(So I hope I have learnt my lession from the Zinc) Nothing like taking profits, locking in gains and come out fighting another day.

Smell the Coffee!

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[Huang Chung]

Tricha, have you off-loaded many of your nickel stocks? What about your old favourites such as MCR and WSA?

[tricha]

Huang Chung - "Tricha, have you off-loaded many of your nickel stocks? What about your old favourites such as MCR and WSA?"

It's like this Huang Chung, no one, absolutely no one ( I'm talking about Nickel company CEO's and guru's ) has ever as far as I know, got close to predicting the nickel price. It's unpredictable! The devils metal [}:)]
I could be right or I could be wrong, but on Friday I dropped off all my Nickel Stocks after closely studying the LME Nickel historical charts on stock levels and price.
I blew it 6 monthes ago with PEM and CBH, because I reacted to slowly to the Zinc charts.

Cheers [}:)]

P.S and it was before I read the below this weekend ;)

[b]There's trickery in base metals gameBRIAN MILNER

Globe and Mail Update

E-mail Brian Milner | Read Bio | Latest Columns
June 8, 2007 at 7:03 PM EDT

Anyone who spends a few minutes chatting with David Threlkeld will come away convinced that the overheated commodities market — or at least the base metals chunk of it — is about to blow up and that any investors who stick around are about to lose their shirts.

What happened to nickel this week only confirms his gloomy assessment, based on personal experience as a long-time metals trader and adviser, that the market is essentially rigged — and not in favour of ordinary investors.

Nickel futures plunged nearly 6 per cent Thursday on the London Metal Exchange and another 1.4 per cent Friday to close at $42,300 (U.S.) a tonne, well off the record $51,650 reached in May.

Some analysts offered the usual explanations for the sharp reversal of fortune — weaker demand, higher inventories, a long overdue market correction. And, oh yes, there was the small matter of the LME's decision to intervene in the market over suspicions of collusion among the small number of players who control the world's trading and supply.

“Everybody loves to play games. And at the end of the day, you run out of room. We've seen it time after time,” says Mr. Threlkeld. Today, he runs his own trading and consulting firm in Scottsdale, Ariz., but he is best-known for exposing a multi-billion-dollar scam to corner the copper market when he was a top-drawer trader in London back in 1991.

Are we witnessing more manipulation at work? Definitely, he says resignedly, and not only in nickel but the other base metals as well.

“You have all these metals at absolutely stupid numbers, which is unsustainable. And the question is: When reality returns, does it return in a week or a year?”

Here's how Mr. Threlkeld views what has been unfolding in nickel. Producers, hedge funds and other key participants have driven prices up and kept them artificially high, in part by withholding nickel from the market and squeezing short-sellers.

The LME has rules against such manipulation, requiring holders of the metal to lend it back into the marketplace when stockpiles reach a certain level. This week, it changed those rules to cut the amount that can be kept out of the market.

But no one, including the LME, really knows how big the nickel and other metal positions actually are, because a lot of the trading is done “over-the-counter,” says Mr. Threlkeld. “You can only try to guess what exposures are, and you've got no idea what bank exposures are in derivatives or guaranteed prices,” he adds. “My sense is that the LME has one foot on a land mine and one foot in a trap.”

The commodities market has never been for the faint of heart. And even such perpetual bulls as Jim Rogers acknowledge that a correction in nickel and other base metals has been long overdue.

“Something that has gone up that much that fast often has a significant correction. So it would not surprise me at all if nickel went down 50 per cent.” That's not a prediction, Mr. Rogers hastens to add. “I'm just saying that nickel is overdue for a tidy correction, given the scope of what's happened.”

Even after the recent selloff

[Huang Chung]

So Tricha, I guess we'll all have to get used to you being an oiler for a while (plus some updates on Goldstream and Territory Iron of course). :D

[ratkin]

Shocking ramping in my opinion , no doubt you are now short metals and are bombarding not only this board but the australain chatboards too . I npoticed your posts on hotcopper site

[moimoi]

tend to agree...

the poster concerned posts the below on the 3rd

""So upside for most nickel producers to maybe double again in the next 12 monthes and give some of the penny dreadfuls time to become multi baggers, E.G AUZ, CUL, TTR.""

by the 8th we have a wee u - turn....

""Down to $54,600 a ton OZ, still excellent coin, I certainly hope everyone locked in some profits""

and by the 10th we are advised.....

""You do not have to be a rocket scientist to work out Nickel stocks are rising and the price is plummenting.""

what a difference a week can make hey.!!

[STRAT]

I think you fellas are being hard on Tricha. At 1099 posts he has a lot to say. We all know what a difference a week can make in this game and all regular posters who post daily are posting their thoughts for that day. Having a change of mind and posting it is hardly ramping but keeping a change of opinion to ones self could be.

[Viking]

I think as long as tricha has declear his position (in this case sold all his metals) will be a fair call. We the reader had to formulate our own view on it, considering he is coming from a different footing than those who still holds them.


Disc: Hold BHP/MCR/ZFX/RIO in resources

[David Hardman]

Crikey - Nickel down 5.8% in early trade.

Its really finding it hard to find a bottom over the last week.

[tricha]

Yep, Smell that coffee!

Strat - "We all know what a difference a week can make in this game" Exactly.

Viking - "We the reader had to formulate our own view on it"Exactly, some people are still in kindergarten.My spelling is pretty bad, but really australain :(

Some people know whats going on and some people do not have a clue.

Hint - Rule # 3 learn the business! ( we are in the speculative metals market, not the banks or ..............)

Rule #1 "Never lose money"

Rule #2 " Never lose money"

[STRAT]

Kate Haycck
Tuesday, 12 June 2007

MINERS and some analysts are tipping a continued bullish outlook for nickel despite its dramatic price fall on the London Metal Exchange last week.



Between Monday and Friday, the spot price of nickel tumbled from $US50,125 per tonne to $43,325/t on Friday, the metal's lowest price since February.

The price began sliding before the LME announced its new trading rules but it was the change in the way nickel longs can be traded on the exchange that prompted the dramatic sell-off in the metal and saw prices fall over 10% in two sessions.

The metal rebounded slightly in last night's trading on the LME and the spot price closed at $43,475/t, a gain of 0.35%.

Analysts said the trading session was quiet and cautious, with investors still watching the metal's price carefully.

One analyst from a major Australian bank said the market was still trying to find an appropriate level after the changes brought in by the LME, with current trading more associated with manoeuvring to reduce the impact of the new regulations, rather than any market fundamentals or massive changes to those fundamentals.

"This process will probably take a few trading sessions to work through," the bank added.

Nickel stockpiles are still at record lows on the LME at around 8880 tonnes, up from 8856t last week, a rise of 0.3%.

This level is still half that of the 52-week high of 16,980t, and many analysts are pointing out that this tightness as yet shows no sign of drastically easing.

"People are still talking in negative terms about the future, but in the near future there is still tightness," one trader told Dow Jones Newswires.

"There's been no panic in nickel. It had to move down, but I've not noticed a situation where everybody is selling."

Certainly, established and emerging nickel producers in Australia are keeping their eyes on the upside.

Mincor Resources director of exploration Jim Reeve told MiningNews.Net that the company saw the fundamentals for nickel as remaining very strong.

"We expect the demand for stainless steel to be quite strong. The demand for stainless steel, the demand for iron ore, is still going through the roof. That indicates [the current price falls] are probably only a temporary sort of lull," he said.

Reeve said the market's sell-off was due more to sentiment than any real technical impact.

"Stocks have risen a little bit, up to 8000-9000 tonnes, [but] that's a slight rise and it's still a very small total stock," he added.

"I think, realistically, not many people would expect the price of nickel to stay where it was two weeks ago, forever.

"The question is whether there's a soft landing to a new sustainable plateau at a higher price, which is what everyone is predicting, or worst case scenario, a huge collapse. And I don't think anyone is expecting a huge collapse while everything seems to still be booming in terms of the steel industry.

"The price is still very high, even at the current price, and we're looking at a break-even price way, way below the current price.

"I think nickel producers have never had it so good. I think the realistic longer term players don't expect it to stay where it is, but I think we might see it strengthen again," he said.

Reeve also added that from his perspective, predictions of the nickel price settling to around $30,000/t were realistic and "perfectly reasonable", with the caveat that predictions are inherently difficult to make.

"A lot depends on the buoyancy of global economies," he said.

"We're still positive about the price but maybe not at these absolutely stellar levels."

Julian Hanna, managing director of Western Areas, one of the newest nickel miners in Australia, was also keen to downplay the pessimism surrounding nickel this week.

"I think all the negative talk has been grossly overdone. There's certainly not enough nickel to keep the nickel smelters going and supply the stainless steel industry," he said.

Recent news of South Korean giant POSCO developing

[duncan macgregor]

STRAT, I think we are in for a few more wild sp fluctuations with the nickel miners. MCR for instance are over 100% up since dec cant stay trending like that for to long. AGM about to go into production seems to fluctuate more than most. I think nickel miners will have a more sedate upward trend for the second half of the year. They can all bullsh*t as much as they like, demand still exceeds supply, so onwards and upwards. Macdunk

[tricha]

Hmm,correction or a blip [?][?][?] only time will tell, Nickel free stainless steel with better corrision properties than 316, for sale at a much cheaper price.
Did you see it advertised in The Mining Chronicle, May edition, check it out on the net, ideal for all sheetmetal work but not so good for strength when welded.


Copper Declines as China Says Imports Fell; Nickel, Zinc Drop

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper declined in London, snapping two days of gains, as inventory and import data from China, the largest user of the metal, indicated rising supply and slowing demand growth. Nickel, zinc and other industrial metals dropped.

China's imports of copper and copper alloy fell 32 percent in May from the previous month to 129,949 metric tons, the Beijing-based customs office said today. That's the largest decline since October 2005. Deliverable stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped 6.4 percent this week to a three-year high, the exchange said.

The global copper market has moved into a ``small surplus,'' Andrew Keen, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. in London who has covered the industry for 17 years, said in an interview.

Traders and investors are watching China for any signs that its demand for industrial raw materials may be expanding at a slower rate. Its economic expansion helped push global copper demand ahead of production last year. Copper has gained 17 percent this year, extending a rally that began in 2003.

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell $53, or 0.7 percent, to $7,403 a ton as of 10:11 a.m. local time. The metal used in electrical cables and plumbing climbed 3.7 percent this week, after last week's 4.2 percent drop.

China yesterday reported industrial production gained 18.1 percent in May from a year earlier. Demand for metals in the world's most populous nation is likely to keep growing, due to its ``extraordinary demand growth,'' Keen said.

`Significant' Oversupply

Inventories monitored by the Shanghai exchange rose 5,980 tons to 99,773 tons, it said today. Stockpiles tracked by the LME dropped 1 percent to 117,900 tons, the lowest since October 23, the London bourse said in a daily report.

Including inventories tracked the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, global stockpiles have dropped 2 percent this year to 240,198 tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nickel dropped $150 to $42,650 a ton. A close at that price would give it a 1.4 percent weekly decline, a second consecutive drop. The metal, which rose to a record $51,800 on May 9, may fall 26 percent in the second half as supply increases from new mines, according to Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty, the Australian affiliate of the world's biggest securities firm.

The spot price in the second half will average $15.17 a pound ($33,444 a ton), Goldman Sachs JBWere analysts led by Malcolm Southwood said in a report yesterday. Next year, there will be a ``significant'' oversupply, and the price will average $12.85 a pound, they said. So far this year, nickel has averaged $20.38 a pound.
Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum fell $2 to $2,728, lead declined $7 to $2,343 and tin dropped $5 to $14,020. Zinc slid $20 to $3,700.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 15, 2007 05:34 EDT

[Dazza]

this my friends is why i have brought AGM

ok here is my maths

note i hold AGM/MCR/SMY ok

so not bagging any , im bullish on all nickel.

AGM production cost say AUD5
SMY production cost say AUD10

agm next year 5700 tonnes
smy next year 15000 tonnes

i have got agm eps of 17cps
smy eps of 87cps

give PE of 7

this is around 121cps for agm
and 609 cps for smy

note this is rough calculations EBITA etc

and thats with AUD$15 a pound for Nickel

so that would mean $12.75 a pound US for nickel or 28000 a tonne US for nickel

so still plenty of meat in it, and definately not overpriced nickel stocks

if all it is underpriced!

[STRAT]

Hi Dazza, I more or less agree and that is why I am still holding but one should never underestimate market sentiment because that is what we sell into when ever we decide to get out. Market sentiment has been flighty and bordering on schizophrenic of late. While those numbers make good sense from a fundamental point of view its the nervous and fearful market we have to sell into. One would hope along with a major correction would come some stability and return to sensible price changes

[tricha]

Strat - "One would hope along with a major correction would come some stability and return to sensible price changes"

Hmm, have u read the Western Australian news or the Business Review this weekend, they seem to think a major correction happening, but they could be wrong [?][?][?]

I'm out, so it's over to "U"

Best of luck;)

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

Strat - "One would hope along with a major correction would come some stability and return to sensible price changes"

Hmm, have u read the Western Australian news or the Business Review this weekend, they seem to think a major correction happening, but they could be wrong [?][?][?]

I'm out, so it's over to "U"

Best of luck;)
Hi Tricha. Im in NZ and have been away for the weekend. I would be grateful if you could provide a link. As Im pretty sure the articals I have looked at are not the ones you refer to as they are the other side of the coin. Thanks in advance if you can

[whiteheron]

Hi tricha

Yes, I would also like to read the articles you refer to as I like to keep in touch with both sides of the story
Is it possible to post them on Sharetrader or copy them to me ?

I am continuing to hold my investments and see no reason to quit at this stage, but I note that you say that you are "out"
I do enjoy your posts and respect your opinions,you obviously have some very useful connections in the mining field
I am in NZ so am a bit more removed from the centre of what is going on

All the best for your investing

[Dazza]

id love a correction and am waiting

i find with oil companies, especially gas, its kind of hard to locate, thats with my experiences of drilling

if i were to purchase oil companies now, id be buying producing companies that are making a profit, with plenty of cash on the side

cash is king

hense why the WA nickel producers are so good, IGO/MCR/SMY et al

with WSA/AGM coming online soon, these will be good stocks to hold.

[tricha]

This is the best I can do Whiteheron and Strat - This paper is available in all the major centres in NZ and it was the weekend edition - Australian Financial Review - http://www.afr.com/home/ Nickel rally may be ending ( to read u have to subscribe which I do not)

The West Australian - thewest.com.au , sorry can not find it on the net, only in the paper.

Thanks for your vote of confidence Whiteheron, likewise I enjoy reading your knowledgable posts.

And the reason I am out of Nickel is I did not want to get caught carrying the parcel, like what happened to my Zinc stocks before Christmas.( check the kitco graphs with zinc LME stocks\price and the prices of zinc stocks, ZFX, PEM, KZR, CBH, ouch [xx(] )
I am finding similarities with the Nickel stocks and price, however it could be just a blip.[?][?] or the same as Zinc which has made a come back.

This Stainless Steel with no nickel, its is being advertised in the May Mining Chronicle.
Look it up on the net, its real, has better corrision properties than 316 stainless, but not the same strength when welded. But it would be ideal for most sheet S|S applications.

Oh and Minara had the biggest drop on the ASX200 last week. And those of u who can remember what effect AMP had when they dumped their Mincor shares, not once, but twice.[xx(][xx(][xx(]

I may be right or I may be wrong, I do not know, no one knows. So do your own research and risk analysis and u may be right or u may be wrong.

All I can truely say is I made my judgement call, based on what has changed, moved into oil and cash. My bank statement will be the judge.

Oh and Dazza, heres a gem of a book u might like to read, "the WINNING INVESTMEMT HABITS of Warren Buffett & Georgr Soros, by Mark Tier" ;)

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

This Stainless Steel with no nickel, its is being advertised in the May Mining Chronicle.
Look it up on the net, its real, has better corrision properties than 316 stainless, but not the same strength when welded. But it would be ideal for most sheet S|S applications.


Quite wrong. It might be useful for ornamental or low performance applications but where anti corrosion/high strength properties are required users are not likely to substitute 300 series s/s due to customer requirements and/or legislation.

The Chinese are already weary about making wholesale substitution from 300 series to low nickel after the air conditioner debacle.

[STRAT]

quote:Originally posted by tricha




I may be right or I may be wrong, I do not know, no one knows. So do your own research and risk analysis and u may be right or u may be wrong.

All I can truely say is I made my judgement call, based on what has changed, moved into oil and cash. My bank statement will be the judge.


Cheers [B)][}:)]


Thanks Tricha for the link and I would like to add that I too appreciate and enjoy your insightful posts, bold print highlights included, no glasses needed :D PS Are you staying in the U sector which I suppose falls into both camps?

[duncan macgregor]

TRICHA, I to appreciate your posts big type and all.:D
The only question I have is why do you rush about like an over swung pendulum?. The market moves a lot slower than you seem to think, it all takes time to move to the next phase. You never jump off a band waggon until the music stops, or you risk being left behind half way up the hill. The market is going to be a bit shaky hang on in or get left behind. Macdunk

[tricha]

Hi Duncan

Have u filled your car up lately [?][?][?] Also have u read this beautiful little book "Who Moved My Cheese" [?][?][?]

I have been slowly swapping out of nickel to oil and it has been very rewarding.
Hold ARQ [:p], NZO, PSA, NWE and today bought GOG.

I think u will find Jbmurc has quietly done the same ;)

All the best [}:)]

I posted this on the 28.04.07,

[b]Posted on Peak Oil Bermunda - "Please read Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons and then give your opinion on the future oil price.
Simmons is a well balanced man with a Harvard background and many many years in oil investment banking.I have met him and he is not a man of ego.
His book is about to be published in German and Chinese.
Sentiment can drive the price anywhere for a short period but the reality is that oil demand and the cost of production are both increasing."

Six monthes has gone by and I'm re-visiting oil as the forgotton sector. Crude Oil 66.43 +1.37

I keep going to the bowser and I seem to be putting more and more money into this bottomless pit to fill my car up.

I keep reading stories about all these new car factories in China and India. Chinese now have 300,000 US$ millionares and they all want BMW,s etc,etc.

The situation in Iraq seems ready to explode.

I read more and more stories about global warming, England has recorded highest March average temperatures for over 300 years since records began. It's only natural with higher temperatures to have larger storms, hence the US hurricane approaching soon.

Still no large oil fields found.

Are oil prices on the way up again , if so
Heres the million dollar question

Unlike nickel, oil companies are so hard to define as to which is the best buy.

Are there any glaring buy opportunities out there, there are so many choices.

(I have recently taken up positions in ARQ and BPT)

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[tricha]

Hi Strat

Another nickel story out today.

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=159&ContentID=31710

I've still got my foot in the U camp via Goldstream who own a large chunk of UNX, who really do have U.
Goldstream are also are exploring quietly in South Australia for U in their own right.

Also free carried in GGY.

Yes we have to have a bit of U, not a wantaben or a gunabe, but a doabe ;)

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[STRAT]

Thanks for that Tricha

[tricha]

Major Stainless Steel Mills to Cut Production in July

By Interfax-China
21 Jun 2007 at 09:04 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's major stainless steel mills have jointly decided to reduce monthly production by between 20% and 30% in July, in order to combat falling domestic stainless steel prices, a major stainless steel company official told Interfax.

Major domestic stainless steel mills, including Taiyuan Iron and Steel (Group) Co. Ltd (TISCO), Shanghai Baosteel Co. Ltd, Ningbo Baoxin Stainless Steel Co. Ltd, Guangzhou Lianzhou Stainless Steel, and Shanghai Krupp Stainless, a subsidiary of ThyssenKrupp AG, agreed to cut production by 20%-30% next month in a meeting of company general managers held in Shanghai last weekend.




"TISCO plans to cut by 20% on both hot-rolled and cold-rolled stainless steel sheet production next month, to combat falling product prices. We will not stop reduction until when the market recovers. It is not normal that domestic market prices of our products are much lower than our ex-works prices," an official with sales department of TISCO, China's largest stainless steel maker, who wished to remain anonymous said.

"The ex-works price of our 304 series stainless steel sheet (2B 2.0 mm thickness) is now RMB 44,800 a tonne, while price that our sale agents could sell is only RMB 39,000 a tonne," he added.

Baosteel plans to cut 20%-30% of its stainless steel production in July, a Baosteel official said. "At the current product prices, we make no profit at all," he claimed.

The price downturn is mainly caused by high stockpiles of products in domestic market as well as recent drop of nickel prices, the TISCO official explained.

Three month nickel price dropped remarkably by $ 2,800 or 6.93% to a four-month low at $ 37,600 a tonne Wednesday overnight in London Metal Exchange.

"Major stainless steel producers in Europe and the United States cut production in the second quarter under pressure from high nickel prices, which caused market concern that the nickel supply could be eased. Chinese stainless steel makers' joint reduction plan could overweigh market worries," Chen Shufang, analyst with Beijing Antaike Information Co. Ltd said.

LME nickel stockpiles dropped slightly by 12 tonnes to 9,276 tonnes yesterday.

"Stainless steel mills hope the price could be stabilized through less supply of stainless steel in domestic market, but I doubt if they could cut down all of their production lines by 20%-30%, maybe some companies will cut their cold-rolled capacities or some will cut their hot-rolled capacities, depending on their products' stockpiles in market," Chen said.

It is not the first time those major stainless steel mills pledged to cut production. Three stainless steel giants Baosteel, TISCO and Zhangjiagang POSCO announced to cut cold-rolled stainless steel sheet production by 20% in July last year to combat rising nickel prices. Chen said those companies didn't actually cut production last year as much as they pledged.

Chen predicted nickel prices would further to dip as nickel demand growth to slow down in July and August when there will be a slack stainless steel consumption season, and overseas major stainless steel makers are expected to launch equipment maintenance.

High nickel prices have forced domestic stainless steel mills to turn to 200 and 400 series production. Baosteel used 60,000 tonnes of nickel pig iron to produce the 200 series last year and has ordered 200,000 tonnes of the products for this year's production, as Interfax previously reported.

© Interfax-China 2007.

[tricha]

'Super' Stainless Steel Developed

Science Daily — A new type of stainless steel alloy developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory could allow for significantly increased operating temperatures and corresponding increases in efficiency in future energy production systems.


Creep test specimen of HTUPS-4 (Fe-20Ni-14Cr-2.5Al wt.% base) after creep-rupture test at 750oC/100MPa/2191h/air. Very little oxide scale formation is evident. (Credit: Image courtesy of DOE/Oak Ridge National Laboratory)Ads by Google Advertise on this site


The new alloys offer superior oxidation resistance compared to conventional stainless steels, without significant increased cost or decreased creep resistance (sagging at high temperature).

What sets this proprietary material apart from other stainless steels is its ability to form protective aluminum oxide scales instead of chromium oxide scales. The combination of creep and oxidation resistance offered by these alloys previously was available only with nickel-base alloys, which are about five times more costly than the new stainless steels.

This material also has potential applications in high-temperature (up to 800 degrees Celsius) chemical and process industry applications.

The material was reported on in the April 20 issue of Science. Funding for this research was provided by the Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy, Advanced Research Materials Program. Additional funding was received from DOE's Distributed Energy Program, the Division of Materials Sciences and Engineering, Office of Basic Energy Sciences and the SHaRE User Facility.

Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by DOE/Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

[tricha]

Well,looks like the institutions have held reasonable firm so far.

Anyone still holding better pray the price does not drop much more.

Because when those Latte drinking fund managers start unloading, there will truely be blood on the floor.
And why do I say that, go back a few years when AMP dumped MCR relentlessly, not once but twice.

July will be when the LME picture starts to unfold, if past LME history is to go by.

Nickel 8886 +468

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[STRAT]

Nickel needed short sharp shock: Deutsche BankWednesday, 27 June 2007
Kate Hayccok(sic)

ANALYSTS at Deutsche Bank have said the correction to the nickel price is a "healthy development" for a market still facing robust growth and low global supply, with prices to stay strong until 2010.

In a research note analysts characterised the nickel price correction as a short, sharp price shock that was needed to bring nickel prices back down to earth.

The spot price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange has fallen from a high of $US54,050 a tonne since May 15 to a low of $36,735/t on June 20.

Nickel closed at $37,660/t on the LME overnight.

Deutsche Bank was bullish on the commodity and said the price falls would help sustain the market for the metal in the long term.

"We believe the correction to be a healthy development in the global nickel market that will simultaneously help placate disgruntled industry participants, bring stainless [steel] prices to more sustainable levels and reduce the risk of substitution," the bank said.

The bank pointed to changes to LME trading rules, fear of cuts to Chinese stainless steel production rates to prevent oversupply and the issue of nickel substitution as the key drivers of the correction.

It also noted that LME stocks of nickel remain extremely low, despite changes in trading rules leading to an ease in supply, with less than two days of consumption in stockpiles.

As for stainless steel production control policies in China, Deutsche Bank said that while a reduction in production will have a negative effect on nickel prices short-term, "the move was necessary to prevent a vicious cycle of a slowdown in stainless demand as a result of elevated prices".

"While it will take time to determine the effect of the Chinese producers' output reduction, we suspect the end result will eventually bring prices down to a more sustainable level and reinvigorate demand," the bank added.

Analysts at the bank also downplayed the role of nickel substitution, pointing out that greater production of lower-quality products does not mean steel consumers will want those products.

Instead, consumers of high-grade stainless steel would delay purchases until prices became more reasonable.

The bank said the combination of limited refined nickel production growth and strong demand would continue to support prices until 2010, and maintained its nickel price forecasts of $37,479/t for the third quarter of this year and $36,376/t in the fourth quarter. A little less bleak than other articles

[sparrow]

Nickel shines out for some lucky investors

Stuart Washington
July 2, 2007
You can probably spot investors who punted on a nickel play in the past year - they are the ones with broad smiles.

Four nickel miners appear among the top 10 share price increases for 2006-07 on the ASX 200 - Mincor Resources, Sally Malay, Minara Resources and Independence Group - in every case more than doubling their investors' money.

In a year in which the resources boom continued, the spot price for nickel has more than doubled, though has fallen back of late. Not bad for three miners - Mincor, Sally Malay and Independence - built on the cast-offs from the nickel interests in Kambalda sold by Western Mining in the late 90s.

Another infatuation for investors, also appearing on the top 10, are the coal-seam natural gas explorers Arrow Energy and Queensland Gas. While undoubtedly lucrative on paper, they are yet to turn a profit. And of course, when talking about 2006-07, no top 10 would be complete without Andrew Forrest's bold iron ore project, Fortescue Metals Group.

In the bottom 10, some companies showed the resources boom and oil price hikes are no guarantee against doing some dough, with Beach Petroleum, Roc Oil, and services business Boom Logistics all falling into disfavour.

There was also investor dislike of structured finance operator and failed Qantas bidder Allco Finance Group. And in terms of trends, Great Southern and Timbercorp fell heavily because of an adverse tax ruling this year.

[tricha]

As we moving into the danger zone, only time will tell as no one really knows.[?][?][?]
All we can go by there the fiqure in Red.

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
( July 9 )
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 826550 +1850
Copper 102075 -3400
Nickel 9882 +516
Lead 43400 -750
Zinc 70975 -475
Charts

[tricha]

Heres an interesting story, anyone got an assessment of all this.[?][?][?]

What’s Happening With Nickel?
By Mike Hewitt
Commodity bull markets can often experience a speculative peak followed by a dramatic collapse in price. These sharp peaks are sometimes associated with an attempt to corner the commodity by either a single large entity or collusion of smaller participants. With the exception of DeBeer’s which has allegedly been successful at manipulating the diamond market for decades, these activities often end in financial disaster when the aim of the manipulator becomes widely known. They may find themselves becoming the only buyer in order to keep the price high and prevent a catastrophic collapse.

Cornering the Market

Attempts at cornering the market range from marginally legal to outright fraud such as the Great Salad Oil Swindle of 1963, in which Tino De Angelis attempted to corner the soybean oil market. The famous Hunt Brothers unsuccessfully tried to corner the silver market in 1980, and eventually declared bankruptcy. In 1996, Yasuo Hamanaka, a trader for the Sumitomo Corporation attempted to corner the copper market. The result was an official reported loss of US$2.6 billion for the company and eight years of prison time for Mr. Hamanaka. Much more recently, there were rumours swirling of BP’s involvement with the propane market in 2006. During that same year, Amaranth, a large hedge fund, suffered heavy losses after one of its energy traders, Brian Hunter, allegedly attempted to corner the natural gas market.

Although the implementation is difficult and complicated, the principle is quite straightforward and has probably been going on even since there were merchants selling commodities. The idea is to create an artificial shortage by hoarding, thereby allowing the merchant to sell his commodity at a higher cost.

Even in today’s sophisticated commodity trading world, the effects on the price by intentional shortages are still amplified should the public perceive a real shortage. There exists some speculation that large institutional traders, such as hedge funds, are presently engaged in similar attempts to corner base metal markets.

This essay will discuss whether this scenario merits any consideration by taking an in-depth look at what is presently occurring with nickel.

The full story - http://www.dollardaze.org/blog/

[STRAT]

Great post Tricha. I do love a good conspiracy theory

[sparrow]

Nickel Forecast Raised by Credit Suisse on Stainless Steel Use

By Jae Hur

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel cash prices may average higher than forecast this year as stainless steelmakers resume purchases, Credit Suisse Group said.

Nickel may average $17.97 a pound ($39,617 a metric ton), up from a previous estimate of $15, analysts including Jeremy Gray at the bank said in a July 6 report. The metal has averaged $19.91 so far this year.

Spot nickel has fallen 40 percent from a record in May as stainless steel producers used less nickel or cut output. Credit Suisse expects nickel prices to rise in the fourth quarter.

``We estimate global stainless steel output to increase approximately 5 percent in 2007 and 6.6 percent in 2008,'' the analysts said. They expect nickel demand to gain next year on increased usage in batteries and the aerospace industry.

Nickel for immediate delivery fell $1,750, or 5.1 percent, to end at $32,805 a ton yesterday. The price reached the record in May as stockpiles plunged to an amount equal to less than two days of global consumption following strong demand in China.

Credit Suisse also raised its 2008 nickel forecast by 36 percent to $15, 2009 by 38 percent to $11 and 2010 by 33 percent to $8. These compare with estimates by Jon Bergtheil, head of global metals strategy at JPMorgan Securities Ltd., made on July 8, for $17.95 pound in 2007, $12.48 in 2008, $8.51 in 2009 and $6.45 in 2010.

``We estimate a finely balanced nickel market through until 2009, with marginal surplus supply (of) refined nickel estimated at 1 percent of global consumption in 2007-2008,'' the analysts said.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

As we moving into the danger zone, only time will tell as no one really knows.[?][?][?]
All we can go by there the fiqure in Red.


I don't think the Ni price will fall much further - now back at an old $15 support level.

OK so it's fallen 40%... but note that copper and zinc also fell similar amounts from their frenzied peaks in 2006 - back to previous support levels. Their corrections didn't affect resource stocks in the medium term, indeed most of them fully recovered and are at record highs.

Watch lead to plummet soon - probably back to 90c.

SEC

[Dazza]

seriously what can go wrong

mcr/igo/smy they all have cash to play around with, they are hoooarding it

all i can see is, once they have mined all they can, and if they use their cash UNWISELY ill jump ship, simple as that

so far MCR's aqusitions has been very reasonably so i am very happy with that.

stick to what you know, stick to nickel, as soon as they diverge to what ever is the months flavour, then im out

[whiteheron]

I tend to agree with SEC

When the nickel price was pushed up to $24/lb the major influence I believe was the various funds trying to manipulate the price for their own purposes
If/when they get their fingers burned it is their own fault and I dont have any sympathy for them
Us little folks just have to cope with what the market does and this, I believe, includes plenty of big boys trying all manner of manipulation

If the price of nickel had risen in a much more orderly manner to where it is now, without the spike up to $24, then I believe we would all be very happy with where the price is now at around $15 to $16

There is still a possibility that the price could still soften to around $12 but I dont believe that it will fall much below that in the near to medium term --- demand is still very robust and there are some problems on the supply side
Physical stocks are still low (if we can believe the figures quoted)but there could be undisclosed stocks held by various manipulators

Additionally, the cost of bringing new supplies to market have risen significantly and there have been cost and delay problems with laterite ores

In the end time will tell as it always does

[tricha]

Hmm, Nickel substitution at work. ;)

Low Prices Force Nickel Pig Iron Producers to Cut Production

By Erik Dahl
13 Jul 2007 at 10:40 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's nickel pig iron producers have been forced to either cut or suspend production due to recent low prices and decreased demand from downstream stainless steel mills, industry insiders told Interfax yesterday.

"We are considering cutting nickel pig iron production in the coming months, as downstream demand has shrunk with the price of nickel," said an anonymous official from privately-owned Zhejiang Huaguang Group, China's largest nickel pig iron producer, which is capable of producing 1 million tonnes of nickel pig iron per annum, with a nickel content varying from 1% to 14%.




"We will make a final decision within the week as to how much capacity to cut and when to start the reduction," the official said.

The whole nickel pig iron industry is suffering from both price declines and low purchase volumes from downstream stainless steel mills. However, Huaguang's production has remained stable to date, mainly supported by long-term contracts previously signed with major stainless steel mills, including Baosteel, TISCO and Zhangjiagang POSCO, the official said.

The company supplies approximately 700,000 tonnes of nickel pig iron to stainless steel smelters per year through long-term contracts.

Many small nickel pig producers in the provinces of Shandong, Sichuan and Fujian have been forced to reduce or suspend production, according to the official.

The price of nickel pig iron (grade 4% to 6% nickel) fell sharply from a peak of RMB 2,600 (US$343.01) per tonne unit (1 unit represents 1% nickel content) in May, on the back of all-time high prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME), to a current RMB 2,000 (US$263.85) per tonne unit, said Wang Lixin, an analyst with Beijing Umetal, a leading domestic metal consultancy.

A sharp decrease in refined nickel prices on both the domestic and international markets, twinned with sluggish consumption from stainless steel mills, is responsible for declining nickel pig iron prices, Wang said.

The three-month nickel price on the LME fell to US$33,350 per tonne yesterday, from a peak-high of US$51,500 per tonne on May 9, representing drop of 35.24%.

Reduced production and product prices from domestic stainless steels mills are also weighing on the nickel pig iron market.

Last year, domestic stainless steel mills began to use low-grade nickel pig iron (grade 5% nickel) as an alternative to refined nickel, in an attempt to offset the high costs brought by high nickel prices, resulting in an investment wave in nickel pig iron capacity throughout the nation.

"Almost 30 new nickel pig iron plants were constructed in Shandong Province alone this year and according to our field research, the new plants are all small-scale and use simple equipment," Wang said.

She claimed that small nickel pig iron plants have flexible production structures and can easily adapt to market demands. "Small plants were able to shift to production of other ferroalloy products when nickel pig iron production became less profitable. Currently, most of the nickel pig iron producers in Shangdong have either cut or suspended production," she added.

China's nickel pig iron production is mostly based on imported laterite ore as a raw material, which is processed in small-scale blast furnaces or electric furnaces.

China imports laterite ores (grade 0.9% to 1.9% nickel) mainly from the Philippines, New Caledonia and Indonesia. However, Wang further commented that few Chinese companies are able to directly purchase laterite ore in those countries due to strict local government resource export policies.

The price of imported laterite ore has tumbled rapidly along with the downturn in nickel prices. The delivery price of Philippine laterite ore (grade 1.8% nickel) in Ch

[tricha]

Baosteel Stainless Increases Ferritic Stainless Steel Production

By David Harman
16 Jul 2007 at 10:33 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- Shanghai Baosteel Stainless Steel Co. Ltd., a Shanghai Baosteel Co. Ltd. subsidiary, will increase ferritic stainless steel production to more than 50% of the company's total stainless steel output this year in an attempt to stabilize sales revenues, a company official told Interfax today.

"We have already increased ferritic stainless steel production to more than 50% of the company's total stainless steel production for the first half of this year in an effort to stabilize our sales revenue. Moreover, ferritic stainless steel production for the whole of this year has been set to between 50% and 55% of total stainless steel production," a Baosteel Stainless news department official, surnamed Wang, said.




Falling nickel prices have led to a subsequent plunge in stainless steel product prices, with major stainless steel mills such as Baosteel and Taiyuan Iron and Steel (Group) Co. Ltd. (TISCO) slashing the price of 304-series stainless steel products by RMB 8,000 ($568.03) per tonne as of July 1.

"On the other hand, ferritic stainless steel prices are comparatively stable, as this type of stainless steel does not contain nickel metal," he explained.

Baosteel Stainless developed and produced 21 new types of stainless steel product in the first half this year, totaling 30,000 tonnes, 40% of which were ferric products.

Baosteel Stainless has a production capacity of 100,000 tonnes of stainless steel and 200,000 tonnes of carbon steel per month, according to Wang.

The company has reduced stainless steel production by at least 20% since the start of July due to falling nickel and stainless steel prices.

Conversely, during the surge in nickel prices in the first five months this year, the company successfully cut production costs by RMB 43 million ($5.68 million) through the utilization of low-grade nickel pig iron.

Baosteel Stainless consumed 36,000 tonnes of nickel pig iron during stainless steel production in the first five months, reducing melting costs by RMB 68 ($8.98) per tonne, Wang said.

The company has long-term contracts with nickel pig iron producers and supplies them with imported laterite ore for processing into nickel pig iron, according to Wang.

However, Baosteel Stainless ceased nickel pig iron purchases in July due to a dramatic fall in nickel prices, causing nickel pig iron-produced stainless steel to become unprofitable.

"We have now returned to relying on refined nickel stockpiles, due to concern that nickel prices will fall further and impact stockpile value," Wang explained.

Commentary

It is quite clear that lower nickel prices will reduce production costs, as will the use of alternatives. Yet this is not the overriding force behind falling domestic stainless steel prices.

The trend had been set months ago as new capacity came on stream resulting in production levels which far exceeded domestic demand. This does of course give exporters the advantage of maintaining profit margins even as export taxes are levied.

© Interfax-China 2007.

This article comes from Interfax China Commodities Daily, a daily digest produced by Interfax News Agency in Mainland China. To receive 10 free copies of this, please e-mail david.harman@interfax-news.com.

[Viking]

Lower price, Higher Quantity~

Equilibrium~~~~~~
Revenue??? :S

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

The company has long-term contracts with nickel pig iron producers and supplies them with imported laterite ore for processing into nickel pig iron, according to Wang.

However, Baosteel Stainless ceased nickel pig iron purchases in July due to a dramatic fall in nickel prices, causing nickel pig iron-produced stainless steel to become unprofitable.


Shows you how marginal the nickel pig iron industry is if it can't make money when nickel is $15/lb and still at historic highs. Is it sustainable???? Perhaps not at $15/lb nickel - may put a floor under the price....

The SS producers can bleat all they want, claim they've developed all sorts of new nickel free SS products (which is a complete myth anyway, all they've done is revisit long-discontinued grades) and alter production schedules to fit their own agenda. But all that'll do is create a glut of nickel-free SS that no-one wants since 300 series SS is at realistic prices again.

Also note that most of the recent stockpile rises have been in Europe and the USA. Not in Asia, where demand never really tapered off, despite $24/lb prices.

SEC

[tricha]

Substitution is used for sheet metal applications and has better corrision properties than Stainless with Nickel. If u do not believe it, read the Mining Chronicle :(

Nickel Falls on Rising Stockpiles;

By Brett Foley

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell for the first day in four in London, paring last week's gains, on rising stockpiles and speculation that producers will reduce usage of the metal.

Nickel stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange increased 492 tons, or 4.3 percent, to 11,838 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report. Inventories have more than doubled this year.

``The rise in LME stockpiles today serves as a timely reminder that there is plenty of material being made available to the market,'' Nick Moore, a metals analyst with ABN Amro Holding NV in London, said in a telephone interview.

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME dropped $700, or 2 percent, to $34,350 a metric ton as of 10:51 a.m. in London. Last week, the metal used in stainless steel advanced 9.5 percent, paring this month's decline to 13 percent.

The metal has dropped 30 percent since trading at a record $51,800 on May 9. German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp AG said in May it may reduce nickel purchases to cut costs. Its Finnish rival, Outokumpu Oyj, said it will probably take similar measures.

China, the world's largest user, imported 7 million tons of low-grade ore in the first half of the year as it boosted production of so-called nickel-pig iron, ABN Amro's Moore said. The metal can be used as a cheaper alternative in stainless steel products. Nickel pig iron output will climb to 100,000 tons next year, from 30,000 tons in 2006, Citigroup Inc. said June 6.

Acerinox Demand Outlook

Acerinox SA, the world's second-largest stainless- steelmaker, said July 20 that it expects demand to slow in the third-quarter as buyers wait for nickel prices to fall further before rebuilding their inventories.

Nickel probably will fall to $30,000, Tobias Merath, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Zurich, said July 10.

[Tech Step]

Trica.

I do understand that you do your research but from my experience as an Engineer I have the following to add.

No Engineer will change something that works. If Steel can be made using overpriced Nickel then they will continue doing so.

Metal prices are here to stay IMHO!

[SEC]

Tech Step, I also have an engineering background and can assure you the analysts have no idea about engineering. They put far too much emphasis on stockpile levels and comments from steelmakers who have a vested interest in driving the nickel price down.

Then there are the outdated comments about predictions of a huge increase in nickel pig iron production, predictions made when the nickel price was about $22! Now with Ni at $15 the nickel pig iron industry is unprofitable so that will curtail demand for laterite ore.

I note comments the (European) steelmakers are waiting for nickel prices to fall further before rebuilding their inventories. So a 1/3 decrease not good enough for them? As I said earlier, we're now approaching the floor price and they're playing a dangerous game here....

Engineers generally will NOT substitute 300 series nickel, either due to legislation or taking a huge risk on an untested alloy. Engineers do not like bad publicity, like failure of their equipment due to an untested or inferior alloy. The Chinese air conditioner fiasco is a classic case.

SEC

[whiteheron]

Tech Step and SEC

Thanks for that
It is great to get a perspective from the engineering community

I dont have an engineering background but I have come to pretty much the same conclusion that your posts put foward

My reading of the situation after reading extensively on all points of view on this and related matters is that the future base price for nickel is likely to be in the region of USD $15, maybe $12 as an absolute low

Established nickel miners with a relatively low cost structure will still make very healthy profits at these price levels

[sparrow]

NICKEL USES CONTINUE TO EXPAND, NOT DIMINISH

Cheers,
Sparrow



Experts develop new battery for hybrid cars


Washington.– Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have developed a new type of lithium battery that could become a cheaper alternative to the batteries that now power hybrid electric cars.

According to RenewableEnergyAccess.com, until now, lithium batteries have not had the rapid charging capability or safety level needed for use in cars. Hybrid cars currently run on nickel metal hydride batteries, which power an electric motor and can rapidly recharge while the car is decelerating or standing still.

But lithium nickel manganese oxide, described in a paper published in Science on Feb. 17, could revolutionize the hybrid car industry – a sector that has "enormous growth potential," said Gerbrand Ceder, MIT professor of materials science and engineering, who led the project.

"The writing is on the wall. It's clearly happening," said Ceder, who said that a couple of companies are already interested in licensing the new lithium battery technology.

The new material is more stable (and thus safer) than lithium cobalt oxide batteries, which are used to power small electronic devices like cell phones, laptop computers, rechargeable personal digital assistants (PDAs) and such medical devices as pacemakers.

The small safety risk posed by lithium cobalt oxide is manageable in small devices but makes the material not viable for the larger batteries needed to run hybrid cars, Ceder said. Cobalt is also fairly expensive, he said.

The MIT team's new lithium battery contains manganese and nickel, which are less expensive than cobalt.

Scientists already knew that lithium nickel manganese oxide could store a lot of energy, but the material took too long to charge to be commercially useful. The MIT researchers set out to modify the material's structure to make it capable of charging and discharging more quickly.

Lithium nickel manganese oxide consists of layers of metal (nickel and manganese) separated from lithium layers by oxygen. The major problem with the compound was that the crystalline structure was too "disordered," meaning that the nickel and lithium were drawn to each other, interfering with the flow of lithium ions and slowing down the charging rate.

Lithium ions carry the battery's charge, so to maximize the speed at which the battery can charge and discharge, the researchers designed and synthesized a material with a very ordered crystalline structure, allowing lithium ions to freely flow between the metal layers.

A battery made from the new material can charge or discharge in about 10 minutes – about 10 times faster than the unmodified lithium nickel manganese oxide. That brings it much closer to the timeframe needed for hybrid car batteries, Ceder said.

Before the material can be used commercially, the manufacturing process needs to be made less expensive, and a few other modifications will likely be necessary, Ceder said.

Other potential applications for the new lithium battery include power tools, electric bikes, and power backup for renewable energy sources

[geezy]

Would better Food and Safety Rules in China increase usage of stainless steel? Thus increasing demand for nickel?

Think i read it somewhere but cant remember where..

[tricha]

Interesting theories guys.

When you get this happening(nickel 12642 +804) maybe u should smell the coffee. The unfortunate part is if the fund managers start unloading.
And I would hazard a guess it is very close.

I can imagine a 25% drop in all Nickel companies very quickly.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

Interesting theories guys.

When you get this happening(nickel 12642 +804) maybe u should smell the coffee. The unfortunate part is if the fund managers start unloading.
And I would hazard a guess it is very close.

I can imagine a 25% drop in all Nickel companies very quickly.

Cheers [B)][}:)]


The herd fund managers have already started unloading and most nickel companies have dropped around 25% from their peaks. So what's your point?

To put in perspective, LME stocks are STILL less than 4 days of global supply. Stocks are not growing in the Asian warehouses where demand is still strong.

[kissssik]

Good point Heavy Metal, how ever the dooms and gloom merchants have a role provided they back up their views will facts.....otherwise their credibility goes out the door and you may as well join HC with all the other Dheads [u]</u>

[Dazza]

be fearful when others are greedy

be greedy when others are fearful

words of mr buffett himself

if u cant work out what implications this means to nickel

then oh well :D

[OneUp]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

be fearful when others are greedy

be greedy when others are fearful

words of mr buffett himself

if u cant work out what implications this means to nickel

then oh well :D




Yeah I can't work out what you're saying. Are you bullish or bearish?

Any short term chart of the pon will show some fear. Any medium or long term chart will show a raging bull market.

[Dazza]

bullish a duh

at the moment everyone is damn fearful of Ni

so hense its time to be greedy and buy up :D

what u tink that all of a sudden we dont need steel or something

mind you im long term playing this game

[OneUp]

I wouldn't describe the nickel market as full of fear.

Check out the charts Dazza. Nickel shares back to where they were only a couple of months ago. This is just a calm adjustment from over exuberance. Not panic.

[tricha]

Greed or Fear [?][?][?]

[tricha]

Dazza - "at the moment everyone is damn fearful of Ni"

Dam right Dazza. "FEAR"

It has happened recently with Zinc, Copper and nearly 2 years ago with Nickel. They all came good again.[:p]
The difference this time around, is that horrible word - Substitution ]"is used for sheet metal applications and has better corrision properties than Stainless with Nickel. If u do not believe it, read the Mining Chronicle"

Tech Step -"No Engineer will change something that works. If Steel can be made using overpriced Nickel then they will continue doing so."
Sec - "Engineers generally will NOT substitute 300 series nickel, either due to legislation or taking a huge risk on an untested alloy. Engineers do not like bad publicity, like failure of their equipment due to an untested or inferior alloy."

I appreciate where u are coming from Tech Step and Sec, I am not talking about pipe work, pumps, pressure vessels, tanks, etc. It has to been be high grade S\S, "the substitution stuff cracks upon welding" [xx(]

The substitution S\S is only good for sheet metal work. Like benches, kitchen ware, rubbish bins, fridge exteriors. appliance exteriors.[:p]
I can imagine the Chinese will be using it in every application possible.

The big Question - Will the Nickel price over correct and If\When will the bargins appear.

[whiteheron]

tricha

You seem to have turned really bearish on nickel/nickel stocks
And I understand that you have sold out of MCR ?

Personally I still consider nickel to have a bright future, but not to trade at the exceptional price of around USD $24 or so that it has reached

MCR for instance has a Ni cash cost of about AUD $6 so will still make very healthy profits at a Ni price of USD $12 or more

I have confidence in the price of both Ni and MCR (and other efficient Ni producers as well)
in the medium to long term

Time will tell of course
Your judgment is usually spot on but I hope that my optimism is right in this case

I consider it to be very unlikely that Ni will drop below USD $12 in the future

There will, I believe, be a high demand for Ni together with limited supply

[tricha]

Dazza - "be fearful when others are greedy

be greedy when others are fearful

words of mr buffett himself"

Tricha - "Oh and Dazza, heres a gem of a book u might like to read, "the WINNING INVESTMEMT HABITS of Warren Buffett & Georgr Soros, by Mark Tier"

I take it u have read the book Dazza [?][?]

Cheers [B)][}:)]


Whiteheron - "I hope that my optimism is right in this case

I consider it to be very unlikely that Ni will drop below USD $12 in the future "

I hope u r right to, WhiteHeron and yes I've been out of Nickel for a while.
Today at the end of trading I bought Sally Malay Mining, it has the goods and has under the radar of most people on this site, except maybe Dazza.

Just a hint of whats around the corner for them,
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/0945f5395a66cc003df2775c1a442171/ASX-SMY-369166.pdf

[Dazza]

aye aye captain :D

MCR is a solid hold for me, under $7 per pound to produce is great

IGO is my hedge for AGM - ie similar cost of production yet IGO is producing, but AGM isnt

SMY - well in it for a bit of difference :D

CBH is my only zinc exposure, have been deciding weather to sell that and buy PEM, but ill leave it as it is

[SEC]

ABARE - probably the best source of unbiased (and conservative) information about commodity forecasts.

http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/ac_june07/htm/nickel.htm

Confirms my thoughts that substitution possibilites will be very limited and nickel pig iron is a marginal industry which is now shown to be uneconomic at $15/lb Ni (ABARE predicted $12/lb Ni). Why has it become uneconomic with Ni at very high prices historically? Because 200 series demand is shrinking and/or steelmakers don't want to use it in 300 series steel because of its impurities????????

Oh, and ABARE also predicted over a month ago that US/EU steelmakers would draw on their Ni stocks in the September quarter. I just wish I'd read the ABARE report a month ago!

SEC

[OneUp]

quote:Originally posted by OneUp

I wouldn't describe the nickel market as full of fear.

Check out the charts Dazza. Nickel shares back to where they were only a couple of months ago. This is just a calm adjustment from over exuberance. Not panic.



I'd agree we're seeing some genuine panic today.

[tricha]

Ring the bell!

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/0945f5395a66cc003df2775c1a442171/ASX-SMY-369166.pdf

Preview

1 - Only 2 mines, both in operation and low capital spend .( compare Mincor, going to 8 and high capital)

2 - low cost

3 - 113 million hedged at .7477 OZ

4 - Excellent copper and cobalt grades at the Sally Malay mine.

5 - Sally Malay off take to China.

6 - Production ramping to 20,000 tons + for ten years.

7 - Relatively low share total = 185 million.

8 - Debt nearly nil.

9 - 88 million cash as of 3rd quarter.

10 - Excellent hedging arrangement.

11 - Huge exploration upside.


Looking forward to the quarterly tomorrow, 31.7.07

Cheers [B)][}:)]

P.S leave no stone unturned [8]

[Dazza]

i wouldnt say low cost , their cost is the highest out of mcr/igo/agm.

also they have lowered production targets for next year

where as MCR has upped it by 27%

SMY was a bargain at sub 350

[tricha]

We must be reading different books Dazza.

Cash costs at mine gate for Sally Malay $3.20
Cash costs at mine gate for Lafranchi $2.56

8 - Debt nearly nil. Make it Nil now.

140 million + in the bank, up 52 million for the quarter.

Production 15,000 + tons for this coming year and then 20,000 + for the next ten years.

AGM do not even produce Dazza and when they do, at what cost then, if like anything else they state, question it [?]

Can u specify what Mincors and IGO's mine gate costs are please Dazza [?]

Cheers [B)][}:)]

P.S leave no stone unturned.

[Dazza]

ill get back to u on that one regarding SMY but im sure they were the most expensive

MCR - AUD7/lb, last quater was AUD 6.50 i tink

AGM - USD3/lb

IGO - AUD 4.5/lb

SMY - USD 8/lb

but when is SMY going to produce 20k i tink in 09 or is 10?

my 2009 prices for the nickel companies are as follows : using 80c AUDUSD , 30% tax rate , PE 7 and nickel price of USD 15/lb. they are just based on earnings not EV etc etc

IGO - $12 based on 9k tpa, and did not calculate for their 30% gold jv

MCR - $8.61 - 20k t production 2009
SMY - $9.24 - 18k t production 2009
AGM - $1.79 - 8k t production 2009

[kissssik]

Nickel bounce....

31,550.00 1,135.00 up 3.73%

[Mike]

Anyone looked at JBM? I havn't searched the entire thread but if Ni is back on the up could be worth a look. They have a prooven track record and found new deposits recently. Not too sure about thier costs to extract tho

[tricha]

Hey Dazza have u got your facts right yet [?][?] "ill get back to u on that one regarding SMY but im sure they were the most expensive"

Any way, this broker report sums them up - RBC - SMY Remains the Cheapest Global Ni Stock

Not that I buy on a brokers report, but it does back up any doubts.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

P.S Super funds dumping them like hot potatoes today and it wasn't even AMP [:p]

[Dazza]

which report was that?
and how old was it? ive got some RBC report but that was back in Jue or was it feb? i forgot

SMY
according to this quartlerly
cash costs of around USD$8 or AUD$11 - you are right about the $3 mine gate, but then you have to chuck on royalty costs and smelting costs and also minus the by product credits

page 3 of the latest quarterly.



but mmmmmm with regard to mincor and IGO, im not to sure if their costs also includes smelting/shipping

[Dazza]

IGO

TOTAL CASH COSTS as follows

cash mining/development costs - $AUD2.59
Other cas costs (milling/royalties/site administration) - $AUD 1.78

= $AUD 4.37 IN TOTAL!



Info sourced from IGO june quarterly page 12 of 28

[Dazza]

more info

SMY
07/08 forecast production 15500 tonnes
08/09 forecast is around 23000 tonnes

from 17th july ann.

IGO
07/08 forecase is around 8800-9000 tpa with $4.5 -4.65AUD costs/lb

[Dazza]

MCR
Cash costs is AUD$6.50/lb for the year.

However they only get 65% of the Ni price *after BHP's smeltering*

2008 target is 16000-17000 t of Ni in conc, it then says to go on that equates to nearly 19,000 tonnes of nickel metal contained in
ore.

So with regards to SMY's 20k im not to sure if it means Ni in conc , or in contained ore?

According to the RBC report June, SMY
2009 Ni attributed = 19k
2009 Ni payable = 12.7k

so not really sure how that works out to be.

DISC: Hold AGM/SMY/MCR/IGO/FXR

[Dazza]

ok im not to sure how much exactly does MCR get paid for their ore... that 65% of Ni price i dunno where i found that....... mmm
need to do more reseearch on MCR

[Dazza]

Ok i found the answer, they just get the spot price i tink.

Check out that RBC report June page 8 of 16

Mincor, has a graph that shows the cash margin etc etc

Margin is about AUD 12.40/lb

regards

[tricha]

Nickel stocks increasing, why ? When China's production is booming.:confused:
The new figures show that China's factories have continued to speed up production, with industrial output up 18.5% in the first half of 2007.


http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/lme-warehouse-nickel-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#lmestocks_5years)http ://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-nickel-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#5years)

[Heavy Metal]

ALL of the stockpile increase is happening in N Europe warehouses - where Norilsk is dumping surplus nickel until the Arctic seas freeze over each year and the Euro steelmakers are drawing down their own stocks. Quite a temporary response don't you think????

[kronos]

Hi Heavy Metal. I`ve enjoyed reading your thoughts on the metals market particularly Nickel of course.
Do you think Ni will bottom out at 12 by, say the end of August/beginning of September, stay in the 12-13 range for a period and then steadily climb towards the end of the year as the stockpile gets reduced with increased buying? Nickel is still in demand. The boom in China and India continues apace. It would seem that is a necessary correction we`ve had that will serve nickel producers well in the long run. Cheers.

[Viking]

Tricha, if memory serves me correctly~ did you said you sold off your metals few weeks ago?

I remember you put forward a reason better early then sold off too late kind of thing~ I must take my hat off to you~ You hit the money right on the dot, man~
I leave the country for just over a week or so~ its blood everywhere when I come back~ though i was very happy I sold my RIO when first hit $100 (was my wishfulthinking target while back, became reality)... but I still loose big time on others~ though still in the green for ADY/BHP~ others are going in the red. Anyway~ hopefully this Ni production keeps up~ :) Bring some of the that green back~

[tricha]

Viking I called it on the 11.06.07 and it only related to Nickel.

"Huang Chung - "Tricha, have you off-loaded many of your nickel stocks? What about your old favourites such as MCR and WSA?"

It's like this Huang Chung, no one, absolutely no one ( I'm talking about Nickel company CEO's and guru's ) has ever as far as I know, got close to predicting the nickel price. It's unpredictable! The devils metal [}:)]
I could be right or I could be wrong, but on Friday I dropped off all my Nickel Stocks after closely studying the LME Nickel historical charts on stock levels and price.
I blew it 6 monthes ago with PEM and CBH, because I reacted to slowly to the Zinc charts.

Cheers [B)][}:)]"


It's still early in the piece , but if this keeps up tonight, a blood bath for all Nickel Stocks tomorrow I Think :rolleyes:


Nickel Falls to 10-Month Low as Stockpiles Rise; Copper Drops

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell to a 10-month low in London as stockpiles of the metal used in stainless steel extended gains, prompting speculation there will be an oversupply. Copper, lead and other industrial metals also declined.
Nickel inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange increased 2.3 percent to 18,324 metric tons, the LME said today in a daily report, the highest since May 2006. They have almost tripled in the past 12 months. Supply will beat demand by 52,000 tons in 2007, after a deficit last year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report last week.
The stockpile gain reflected ``slower demand for nickel both in Europe and Asia,'' Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London, one of 11 companies trading on LME floor. ``There is further downside risk to price,'' she said today in a telephone interview.
Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME fell $575, or 2.1 percent, to $27,525 a ton as of 10:37 a.m. local time. Earlier, it declined to $27,500, the lowest intraday price since Sept. 26.
The metal has lost 44 percent since trading at a record on May 9, partly because stainless-steel makers have delayed purchases.

[Huang Chung]

Tricha, I'll be keenly watching for your call on when Ni might have bottomed.

I had a quick chat to my broker today who was at Kal airport on his way back from Diggers and Dealers. He indicated to me that, of the established miners, MCR was probably the company he was most impressed with at the piss-fest.

[tricha]

Huang Chung - "I had a quick chat to my broker today who was at Kal airport on his way back from Diggers and Dealers. He indicated to me that, of the established miners, MCR was probably the company he was most impressed with at the piss-fest."

Durkins and Mc Mahon will be the key! Potential plus for high grade strikes, but it has to happen, otherwise operating 8 mines, hmm, high cost.

.................................................. .................................................. .

Looks like Nickel will over shoot on the down side and Mincor should be at sub $3.00 come Monday, looking at the DOW at the moment.

I've dipped my toes in the water with SMY, check them out, 2 mines, ramping to 20,000 tons and good CU grades as a bonus. Will leave MCR for dead if MCR do not come up with the goods at Durkins \ Mc Mahon.

WSA still to get to the good stuff.

IGO will need to spend 300 million for their share of Tropicania.

AGM another Posiden at this stage. Hey Ghosta u piece of work, u should be ashamed of your self.


NickelAugust 10,09:55
Bid/Ask11.6989-11.7896Change-0.5821-4.74%Low/High11.6460-12.5078

Monday could be bargin basement day on a downward over shoot,:rolleyes:

Cheers

[Dazza]

strange i was tinking of selling my SMY since it is the miner with the most expensive cost to mine.

holding MCR close to heart, IGO mine costs of under 5 / lb is good, yeah the 300 million cap development for the gold mine is max note

he just said anywehre btw 100 mill to 1 billion for cap costs, IGO pays 30%

the JV partner said they had thought of taking over IGO too..

[Heavy Metal]

Hi Heavy Metal. I`ve enjoyed reading your thoughts on the metals market particularly Nickel of course.
Do you think Ni will bottom out at 12 by, say the end of August/beginning of September, stay in the 12-13 range for a period and then steadily climb towards the end of the year as the stockpile gets reduced with increased buying? Nickel is still in demand. The boom in China and India continues apace. It would seem that is a necessary correction we`ve had that will serve nickel producers well in the long run. Cheers.

Well I thought $14 was the bottom until the credit crunch story ballooned out of control and took the metals down with it. Note there is still no significant new supply coming on stream for a while and the demand side is being manipulated by a few European steelmakers either drawing on their own stocks or even selling to force the price lower.

The good news is that the nickel pig iron industry may well be dead in the water, reducing overall nickel supply. If it can't make money at $15/lb nickel, what hope $12?

[kronos]

Thanks for replying. It looks like the accumulation of Ni stocks is slowing down, and with the return of buyers in September the PON should stabilize in the 12 to 14 range with a lift towards xmas which will good for a co. like Agm.
It`s a little unnerving to watch the downside but I think demand is still strongly there.

[Viking]

Considering the market sentiment, MCR still holding OK above $3~ finger crossed, hopefully this won't overshoot too much~ :P

[fihr]

I am waiting until November to start to see more positive news for nickel and the nickel companies. A more reasonable nickel price is good for the industry in the long run. I think MCR, JBM and SMY are still fundamentally good companies with lots of upside in the medium term. AGM will be likewise once it starts milling. It is indeed unnerving to see the price downside, but my hope is that this will provide some solidity in future when prices reflect the value of these companies more accurately. The market won't be so spooked by the stratospheric looking price trend.

We bought AGM at 10 cents, then saw it drop to 3 cents. Bought more at the bottom. That was unnerving back then, too! No worries now though. I don't want to sell my AGM's until the company has become an established producer, with dividends, so that's probably a 2 year time frame.

Will be watching with interest to see what happens when the Europeans use up their inventories. I know a surplus is predicted for next year though, overall.

[JBmurc]

Blue chip Nickel company JBM looks great buying taking a LONG CFD could rebound very quickly surely a Takeover target for BHP at low levels.
Many Analysts have a $18+ target on JBM



Price to jump - oversold

Jubilee to make WA announcement soon

AdvertisementNickel miner Jubilee Mines Nl says there has been fierce competition to secure the offtake from its operation in Western Australia, with a contract announcement expected within two weeks.

Jubilee executive chairman Kerry Harmanis said nickel offtake from its Cosmos operation had been competitively sought after, with the company in negotiations with current partner CVRD Inco.

"It is time for renewing our offtake contract with Inco and we're currently negotiating that," he said at the Diggers and Dealers forum in Kalgoorlie.

"It (nickel concentrate) has been very, very competitively sought.

"We would hopefully be saying something about that in a couple of weeks, certainly premium returns for a premium product."

Jubilee's current offtake agreement with CVRD Inco expires in September and Mr Harmanis wouldn't be drawn on whether the contract would be awarded to the group.

"I'm not prepared to say yet. We'll mention it when we award the contract in a couple of weeks," he said at the Diggers and Dealers forum in Kalgoorlie.

Mr Harmanis was bullish on the outlook for nickel, predicting China would drive an increase in demand over the next 10 years.

Mr Harmanis said on Wednesday China's appetite for nickel would increase over the next decade.

"Japan, Taiwan and Korea between them consume an average of 15 kilograms of nickel per capita per annum," he said at the Diggers and Dealers forum in Kalgoorlie.

"China consumes five (kilograms of nickel per capita per annum).

"So if you do the calculation, the next ten years with China going to 15 (kilograms of nickel per capita per annum) ... that's an extra 1.5 million tonnes of nickel required per annum.

Jubilee mines nickel from its Cosmos operation in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia.

[JBmurc]

The base metals that appear to have the least amount of downside risk in the short-term are nickel and zinc -- nickel because it has already tanked and zinc because LME warehouse stocks of the metal are very low and continuing to fall.

[Heavy Metal]

Ni prices looking good tonight and stockpile increases dropping off as Asian steelmakers start buying at cheap prices and Europeans stop dumping.... are we going to see a break in the downward trend at last? Pile into nickel stocks if it does.....

[Huang Chung]

Hey Tricha....any change of heart regarding Ni yet? A bit of talk around that it may have bottomed.

[tricha]

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/lme-warehouse-nickel-5y.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#lmestocks_5years)

Huang Chung " Hey Tricha....any change of heart regarding Ni yet? A bit of talk around that it may have bottomed. "

To hard to call Huang, looking at the trend the stocks do not usually peak till Christmas, but with global warming maybe the Russians can get their ships in early.

It would pay to ask the Russians :confused:

However I bought more another 100,000 AUZ shares as a gamble, their high grade ore that they are into, will make MCR eat their hearts out.

And with a brand new Atlas Copco M2D twin jumbo, they are smoking!

Cheers

[Huang Chung]

'However I bought more another 100,000 AUZ shares as a gamble, their high grade ore that they are into, will make MCR eat their hearts out'.

'Unlike say Mincor, who has to chase narrow ore bodies, high cost'.

Tricha.....you certainly have gone cold on your old fave, Mincor... even with the very well regarded Mr. Moore at the helm. ;)

[tricha]

Huang Chung - "you certainly have gone cold on your old fave, Mincor... even with the very well regarded Mr. Moore at the helm. ;)"

Well Huang as u r quite aware , Resource stocks are a rewarding and dangerous narcotic. Nothing stays the same and every stock needs to be periodically reviewed ( never fall in love with a stock or a metal)
Mincor is still an excellent company!

I ask u this question Huang - which nickel stock has the potential to double 1st,

AGM
AUZ
JBM
MCR
IGO
SMY
WSA
Others

My choice today is AUZ\ SMY, tomorrow who knows?

It could be Mincor based on what Carnilya, Durkins and McHahon turn up ?

IGO could be taken out for their gold (rumour)

Will WSA be the real McCoy?? Potential +

Can AGM live up to their expectations.?

Will AUZ 3 vertial ore bodies join into 1 massive one ?

JBM has to go to $30

The choices are unlimited, hedge your bets please :confused:

P.S maybe I'm being dumb and should give Nickel a miss ..............

[Huang Chung]

For what its worth Tricha, here's my take on a couple of our Ni miners:

WSA's Flying Fox is so rich, but goes down a loooong way.
JBM just seem to always produce the goods, although their best mine is probably now just a page in history.
MCR's mines aren't that spectacular, but it's a well run show & they seem to always be able to pull off a great deal every few months.
Everybody seems to rave about AGM, but the penny hasn't dropped for me I'm afraid.Need to look closer at SMY and AUZ as I don't know much about either.

Maybe a portfolio approach is best if you think that the PON will work its way back up - buy a little of each.

Oh, and to answer your question as to which Ni producer has the potential to double first....(excluding SMY and AUZ for the reason outlined above) I'll go out on a limb and say that none of them will double any time soon.

[tricha]

Excellent take on the nickel miners Huang, appreciate a different prespective.

Oh and where Nickel is going is anyones guess ? If they need a heap more Iron Ore I'm guessing they will need a heap more Nickel. :confused:

[tricha]

HERE IS A VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION -

WE HAVE 3 MONTHES TO GO TILL THERORICALLY WE REACH PEAK NICKEL STOCKS

WHAT WILL THE TONNAGE IN LME BE ?????????????

Daily Comparison (* = per lb) or (+ = per tonne)
Date
LME Stock Level +
Cancelled Warrants
Net Stock Level
Official Cash Close *
Official 3 months close *
Day's Ending *
9-6
25,548
3.85%
24,564
9-5
25,086
3.52%
24,204
$12.57
$12.70
$12.38
9-4
24,804
4.09%
23,790
$12.70
$12.93
$12.97
9-3
24,324
3.85%
23,388
$13.34
$13.44
$13.49
8-31
24,126
4.50%
23,040
$13.70
$13.68
$13.51
8-30
23,286
3.76%
22,410
$12.59
$12.70
$12.84
3 month nickel averaged $11.01/lb for all of 2006, $6.69/lb in 2005 - Cancelled warrants are goods sold

[tricha]

MI nickel stocks analysis: Steady rebuild continues


Metals Insider - 2007-09-07

LME-registered stocks rose again Thursday with full-plate metal being warranted at Rotterdam at a clockwork pace of around 540t per day.

more... (http://elog.rttr3.com/eis-cgi-bin/elog2?s=5741&m=070907.0601.0001&e=tonyrichards@xtra.co.nz&u=25) http://www.metalsinsider.com/images/totop.gif (http://nz.f961.mail.yahoo.com/ym/ShowLetter?MsgId=8028_3036095_54246_1825_35395_0_9 87_306144_2498562070&Idx=0&YY=23888&y5beta=yes&y5beta=yes&inc=25&order=down&sort=date&pos=0&view=a&head=b&box=Inbox#top) back to top (http://nz.f961.mail.yahoo.com/ym/ShowLetter?MsgId=8028_3036095_54246_1825_35395_0_9 87_306144_2498562070&Idx=0&YY=23888&y5beta=yes&y5beta=yes&inc=25&order=down&sort=date&pos=0&view=a&head=b&box=Inbox#top)


LME Nickel Evening Evaluations, Sep 06 (Sep 05 in brackets)


Cash

C-Sep

Sep-Oct

Oct-Nov

Nov-3m

C-3m

3m

27080.00

30.00

95.00

90.00

30.00

245.00

27325.00

(27050.00)

(40.00)

(95.00)

(90.00)

(25.00)

(250.00)

(27300.00)




Forward Averages

Sep 06

Sep 05

Outright 2008

27468.75

27381.67

Outright 2009

26816.67

26716.67


Nickel had a dreary old day on Thursday, with stocks building and every man and his dog looking to sell either into a bounce or on the downward break of 24800. The day’s most notable feature was the inevitable downward cross of the 100-day moving average below the 200-day number; the first time since crossing up on March 24, 2006.

http://www.metalsinsider.com//uploads/20070907nichart.jpg
Chart derived from LME Select, provided by Infotec. For more information about Infotec products, click here (http://nz.f961.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=info@metalsinsider.com&Subj=Infotec%20information%20request)

[stolwyk]

September 8, 2007 – Vol.12 No. 24

A PLAN B FOR BATTERIES.

In life it’s always good to have a back-up plan, an alternative course of action in case the primary one goes sour.

The same could be said for developing batteries.

Leading the race in high-tech battery technology are variations of lithium ion. Lithium is the lightest solid element on the planet and is suitable for battery making. Yet lithium’s drawback for use in batteries is its global rarity. Unless more is found, or if dramatically less is needed per battery or if the chemistry gets significantly more powerful, its rarity may eventually limit its use for electric and hybrid electric vehicles. Rare elements on the planet are generally the most expensive.

Without a breakthrough in lithium technology, a Plan B, a back-up battery technology is needed, and soon.

The next best battery technology currently available is clearly nickel metal hydride (NiMH). It’s been proven in a wide range of products ranging from power tools to hybrid cars. All the currently available hybrids have a NiMH battery pack. Toyota has already said its next generation Prius will stick with the now time-tested technology. For Toyota the back-up plan is NiMH.

The NiMH technology has been improving and costs dropping. One significant improvement comes from a company known as Nilar. Nilar has apparently improved upon NiMH technology by taking the relatively basic step of stacking the battery cells horizontally like a stack of pancakes, as opposed to vertically like slices of bread in a pop-up toaster.

According to the company, the Nilar Membrane battery uses an electrically conductive membrane between the cells acting as a cell wall and the electrical connection. The anode of one cell contacts one side of the membrane and the cathode of the adjacent cell contacts the other side. This results in negligible transportation resistance of current between the cells, and uniform voltage across the entire electrode.

In batteries the connection between cells in series builds the voltage. The surface area of the cells contributes to the amount of available current or amperage.

The company uses Philips' time-tested Nickel Metal Hydride chemistry and says that its product should survive 2000 deep recharging cycles and 300,000 shallow ones. A Nilar battery pack should last the life of the vehicle, the company says.

Nilar is set to demonstrate that its battery is ready for prime time and will see it used in a live, real time, in front of real people, conversion of a stock Toyota Prius to a plug-in Prius. The live conversion will take place September 19th and 20th in Boston, Massachusetts at TechMash 2007 as part of its Embedded Systems Conference.

The California Cars Initiative (CalCars) says that drivers don’t have to wait for plug-in hybrids to be available in a few years from the major manufacturers. They can convert their cars now if they want and CalCars and team will show them how, using the Nilar battery at the conference.

Nilar was founded in 2000 and has facilities in Stockholm, Sweden as well as production and R&D labs near Denver, Colorado.

http://www.green-energy-news.com/arch/nrgs2007/20070106.html

[tricha]

Stainless steel production to down by 5.3% in 2007

Global stainless steel production, excluding Chinese steel manufacturing, is expected to down by 5.3 percent this year due to the big drop on price, according to the MEPS International, a steel sector consultancy operating worldwide.

"Stainless steel mills in all countries are cutting supply in the third quarter. This action has been forced on the producers as customers reduce their inflated stock levels," MEPS said.

Global output now reaches 29 million tons this year, including Chinese total output, which is 2.2 percent increase compared to 2006.

However, crude stainless output in EU is anticipated to decline to 8.55 million tons in 2007, 8.5 percent down year on year. Meanwhile, US stainless output has decreased by 190,000 tons and more reductions are expected since the market is quite slow. 5.4 percent down for US is forecasted in 2007.


Monday, September 3, 2007
Stainless
Source: METALS ABOUT (http://www.metals.about.com/od/metalnews/#more)

[Underlord]

Nickel Rises to 7-Week High as China's Use Grows; Copper Gains

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose to a seven-week high in London on demand growth in China, the largest consumer of the metal used in stainless steel. Copper and lead also gained.

Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, raised its price for a second time this month on demand from Chinese steelmakers, it said today on its Web site. China's nickel use jumped 35 percent in the first seven months of 2007, Macquarie Bank Ltd. said, citing International Nickel Study Group data.

``The market seems to focus more on what's going on in China than the rest of the world,'' Max Layton, an analyst at Macquarie in London, said today by telephone.

Nickel for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange gained $1,950, or 6.7 percent, to $30,950 a ton as of 5:01 p.m. local time. It earlier traded at $31,000 a ton, the highest intraday price since Aug. 1.

The metal has gained 21 percent from this year's low of $24,800 traded Aug. 16. Chinese growth has offset declining demand in Western Europe and other Asian countries, where steelmakers have continued to cut production and reduce nickel purchases, Layton said.

Nickel production beat usage by 49,000 tons in the first seven months, Layton said, citing data from the Lisbon-based study group. Stockpiles of nickel monitored by the LME fell 6 tons to 29,958 tons, the exchange said today, the first decline since the end of August. They have more than tripled this year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will later today trim its benchmark interest rate to 5 percent from 5.25 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 134 economists. The Fed has kept the rate unchanged since June 2006. The decision is due at 2:15 p.m. in Washington.

Interest Rate Cut

``A constructive Federal Open Market Committee policy statement and interest rate cut are likely to see a knee-jerk bounce in base metals,'' Robin Bhar, an analyst at UBS AG in London, said today in a report. ``We doubt this can be sustained given the worries over the macro environment.''

A larger-than-expected rate cut may signal an economic slowdown, which would hurt metals demand, said Michael Jansen, an analyst at JPMorgan Securities Ltd.

Workers at Southern Copper Corp.'s operations in Peru will vote tomorrow and Sept. 20 on whether to strike after failing to reach an agreement on wage increases, smelter union General Secretary Arnaldo Oviedo said yesterday.

``Talks have failed and a strike appears practically inevitable,'' Oviedo said. ``The company has kicked over the chessboard.'' Alberto Giles, a spokesman for Phoenix-based Southern Copper, the world's fifth-largest producer of the metal, declined to comment.

Five-Week Walkout

Strikes have cut copper output in Peru, Chile and Mexico, helping to spur a 19 percent rally in prices this year. Workers at three of Southern Copper's mines in Mexico have been on strike since July 30, and contract workers at Chile's Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, ended a five-week walkout on Aug. 1.

Copper gained $72 to $7,572 a ton.

LME data show lead has become less available after stockpiles fell to a 17-year low. Metal for immediate delivery traded at a premium of $85 a ton above the benchmark three-month price, the highest since Oct. 13. LME-monitored inventories fell 2.5 percent to 22,175 tons, the lowest since March 16, 1990.

Demand for lead, used in car batteries, beat production by 27,000 tons in the first seven months of the year, the Lisbon- based International Lead and Zinc Study Group said yesterday.

The three-month lead contract climbed $10 to $3,140 a ton. Tin gained $125 to $14,975 and zinc added $55 to $2,835. Aluminum increased $12 to $2,407.

-- With reporting by Li Xiaowei in Shanghai, Brett Foley in London, Alex Emery in Lima and Steve Matthews in Atlanta. Editor: Casey (kls/slw/ttt).

[ScrappyO]

Nickel up 7% could also be a good day for nickel shares.

[fihr]

Well MCR is definitely up - over $3.80 - its been stuck around $3.60 for a while. Gapped up very well today. SMY up too, though didn't gap. AGM up initially and dropping back to 73 cents. But AGM looks like it is now establishing a steady uptrend, at a more sustainable rate than the last time. JBM is not up much. It was higher a couple of days ago.

So at the moment, its hard to say that all nickel stocks are following the nickel price. It's a mixed bag. But in the longer term, analysts seem to be looking a bit more favorably upon nickel - it seems that it is currently perceived as having corrected, so people feel more comfortable gradually buying back in.

I am currently writing calls on some of my JBMs. Happy to sell some between $17.50 to $18 as need the money elsewhere. The call premiums are quite reasonable income in the meantime.

[fihr]

Maybe it has just taken a day for the reaction to the nickel price rise to happen. Nickel shares well up this morning - MCR gapped up second day in a row, to start over $4.00; AGM continuing up, at 75.5 to 77 cents; JBM up over $17 - $17.11 as I speak. (Maybe my $17.50 calls will get exercised this month - from the trend line it is possible.)

But the guys at http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml say they don't know why the nickel prices are rising. They seem cynical about figures from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics that there was a nickel deficit in the first half of 2006. Perhaps this is another flash in the pan due to temporary optimism caused by the Fed's rate cut???

[Heavy Metal]

But the guys at http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml say they don't know why the nickel prices are rising. They seem cynical about figures from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics that there was a nickel deficit in the first half of 2006. Perhaps this is another flash in the pan due to temporary optimism caused by the Fed's rate cut???

These guys have a vested interest in keeping nickel prices low (and constant) so it's not surprising they're cynical.

If they take their blinkers off it's quite easy to see why nickel prices are rising. The market is finally realising that it's only Europe where nickel demand is falling, about 85% of the LME global available nickel stockpile is held at three European warehouses. Elsewhere in the world demand is still robust. At $12 the nickel pig iron producers in China were either going bust or diverting production so nickel supplies there were starting to be constrained.

But probably the kicker was the Fed rate cut, encouraging speculators back into the market, buying up commodities and in turn inducing a lot of short covering.

So nickel is starting to become fair value again at $15 - $18, and well done anyone who had the foresight like myself to buy nickel stocks last month when it was achingly obvious nickel was oversold are doing very very well, 30% - 50% return in one month ain't bad eh.... AGM target price 90c....

[whiteheron]

Heavy Metal

People want quality products and Nickel stainless is the best
This pig iron stainless is from all accounts much inferior and apparantly not economic to produce if the Ni price is below US $12 per pound
As I see it this pretty much assures a base Ni price of US $12 to $15 or so, around the figure that it is currently and with spikes above this if there is a shortage or futures funds etc trying to manipulate prices

Just my view
My Ni stock is MCR, purchased for the poultry sum of 66c
Equal best stock for me

[macduffy]

Interesting article in today's Australian.

BHP holds key to nickel surgeFont Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Kevin Andrusiak | September 24, 2007
AFTER more than two years in charge of Australia's best nickel assets during a period of rising commodities prices, BHP Billiton believes it might finally have the key to unlocking the nickel production chain built by WMC Resources.

BHP wants to improve output to capture a bigger market share of heady Asian demand for the metal.

The move comes as the Australian currency surfs a commodities export cycle boom that some analysts believe could run for 15 or even 25 years and take the dollar to eventual parity with the US dollar.

BHP Nickel West president Marcelo Bastos revealed a new strategy of "go concentrate long" for the global mining giant for its suite of nickel assets now controlled by the company after the 2005 takeover of WMC for $9.2 billion.

At the time, most market attention was focused on how BHP would lift production at the giant Olympic Dam mine in South Australia while the nickel assets - comprising chiefly the Kwinana nickel refinery, Kalgoorlie nickel smelter, Mt Keith open-cut mine, Leinster underground mine and Kambalda nickel concentrator - remained largely out of the spotlight with many expecting BHP to use its global experience to successfully de-bottleneck many of the operations.

However, since the takeover, BHP has never been able to improve on the output levels of nickel matte from the Kalgoorlie nickel smelter or nickel metal from the Kwinana nickel refinery, both in Western Australia, and instead of focusing on bottlenecks at each site will instead demand the production be ramped up at its three nickel concentrators at Mt Keith, Leinster and Kambalda.

Any excess not used by either the refinery or smelter can then be easily on-sold to BHP customers.

"We don't have real cases where we can expand production (at the moment)," Mr Bastos said. "We have examples of where we can expand production."

Mr Bastos also signalled that the company had embarked on a "new wave" of growth for its nickel assets that was "much more related to market conditions" as the company predicted the nickel price could be sustained at current levels, or move higher, over a long period.

He added that while merger and acquisition activity remained on the radar, the global mining giant would put more faith in achieving results from a $120 million, three-year nickel exploration budget.

"There is a low level of nickel stock in the market," he said.

The new strategy puts pressure on the Kwinana nickel refinery and Kalgoorlie nickel smelter in particular to keep pace with the supply of concentrate from BHP's own nickel mines and nickel ore from a number of third parties which is delivered to the Kambalda nickel concentrator.

Refinery acting general manager Simon Hay said that while he hoped to push past the 750,000 tonnes of nickel concentrate the facility refined each year - the same level achieved by WMC - he could not put a figure on what soon might be possible.

"We want to be bigger - we know we can sell every tonne of nickel we produce," Mr Hay said.

"The challenge for us is to raise that figure. The approach is long term.

"I'm not saying that WMC didn't have that approach, but I certainly see it in BHP."
Kwinana nickel refinery general manager Brett Swayn admits there have been reliability issues at the plant, which has prevented it from reaching the rated capacity of 65,000 tonnes a year.

The refinery takes about two-thirds of the 100,000-110,000 tonnes of nickel matte produced at the Kalgoorlie smelter with BHP preferring to sell the rest to the Kwinana refinery's overseas competitors because of capacity restraints at the refinery.

Production last financial year at the refinery was 54,000 tonnes of nickel metal, with about 5000 tonnes lost due to scheduled maintenance work.

"We want to take all of the smelter's output ... we have got to make sure we are competitive with the Chinese," Mr Swayn said.

"We know our competitors are improving and we need to keep up."

[zac]

From 'The Australian'
There's more nickel than Jubilee mines
November 5, 2007

THE DRUM

THE gold price may have hit $US800 an ounce last week, but there's no question that nickel was the hottest commodity in the Australian market. Xstrata's surprise $3.1 billion bid for Jubilee Mines put a rocket under the sector, which has been consolidating rapidly since BHP Billiton's $9.2 billion purchase of WMC Resources in 2005. "We are bullish on stainless steel," Xstrata chief executive Mick Davis said. "We see no reason why that should change." Jubilee had long been regarded as one of the world's premier independent nickel companies given its repeated exploration success surrounding its Cosmos mine in Western Australia. Like platinum, the nickel sulphide game is all about controlling the smelters and refineries. The world's top five nickel sulphide producers - Russia's Norilsk, Brazil's CVRD, BHP Billiton, China's Jinchuan and Xstrata - control 80 per cent of production, giving them increased pricing power.

The nickel price, which reached more than $US50,000 a tonne in May, has taken a severe hit in recent months. Last week, it was trading near $US32,000 a tonne.
But analysts expect the nickel price to improve over the remainder of the year since the makers of stainless steel will be forced to restock after taking a breather over the last few months.

Western prospects

The leading contender for the title of "the next Jubilee" looks to be Western Areas. Like Jubilee, Western Areas has managed to gain control of an entire nickel province - the Forrestania nickel belt about 400 kilometres east of Perth. The company's Flying Fox mine produces a similarly high-grade, high-iron concentrate which helps offset ore with higher impurities when blended in a smelter. "We don't see any reason this province here will not rival Kambalda in the years to come," the Western Areas managing director Julian Hanna says. "The deposits are getting larger and higher-grade [the deeper] we go." Western Areas expects to produce 8000 tonnes of nickel next year, rising to 10,000 tonnes in 2009 when it starts production from a second mine at Diggers South. It has several other potential mines, including New Morning/Daybreak, Cosmic Boy and the recently discovered Spotted Quoll deposit. Although it looks like a prime takeover target, there are a few factors preventing an immediate sell-out. Chairman Terry Streeter owns 19.5 per cent of Western Areas and is happy to watch the company grow. Also, unlike Jubilee, which signed one-year offtake agreements, Western Areas has agreed to sell its first 75,000 tonnes of nickel - at least five years' production - to Norilsk.

Russian input

Norilsk is now a major player in WA following its $C6.8 billion ($7.8 billion) takeover of Canada's LionOre earlier this year. The deal also gave the Russian company a 19.8 per cent stake in Breakaway Resources, which owns some nickel tenements LionOre divested to its old exploration team. Breakaway is an early-stage exploration play. But the added risk brings with it the potential for more upside in the share price. Breakaway has initially focused its attention on the Scotia prospect, about 15 kilometres north of an old nickel mine, where it's been drilling for the last four or five months. Last week, it announced a promising intersection of 27 metres at 1.8 per cent nickel from a depth of 143 metres. Some of Breakaway's projects are already tied up in offtake agreements with Norilsk but it's a free agent on the Scotia project. Breakaway wants to start drilling on several other prospects as well but managing director Peter Buck notes: "A company our size can only do so much at once."

Mirabela's plans

Nickel sulphides are very rare compared to lower-grade laterite projects, so there haven't been many big discoveries in the last decade. But Mirabela Nickel has managed to break that trend with its $US263 million ($286 million) Santa Rita project under construction in Brazil. Mirabela has a measured and indicated resource of more than 400,000 tonnes of contained nickel, albeit at a relatively low grade of 0.61 per cent. Mirabela executive director Craig Burton says the deposit is more comparable to BHP's massive Mt Keith open pit mine than the higher-grade underground mines in WA. Santa Rita expects cash costs of about $US3.34 a pound before byproducts. Mirabela intends to start production in 2009 at 18,500 tonnes a year, with room for further expansions and the possibility of building a smelter on-site. CVRD owns 9 per cent of the company but Mirabela has yet to sign an offtake agreement, keeping its options open. Directors don't want to consider takeover approaches at present. "Our aim is to bring this project onstream and unlock the full value for our shareholders," Burton says.

jfreed@smh.com.au

[jdg]

damn those nickel warehouse stocks just keep rising. i've been waiting for the drawdown after stainless steel destocking. it has to be just around the corner. when it happens, i would expect it to happen quickly.
-j

[tricha]

damn those nickel warehouse stocks just keep rising. i've been waiting for the drawdown after stainless steel destocking. it has to be just around the corner. when it happens, i would expect it to happen quickly.
-j

Dam Pig iron is the problem jdg, it will flood the market. if it was not for bloody pig iron , nickel would be fetching 100,000 a ton right now.

China's Stainless Steel Output to Reach 9 Million Tonnes This Year
By Ginger Ding and Ida Chen
28 Mar 2008 at 10:10 AM GMT-04:00

HONG KONG (Interfax-China) -- China's stainless steel output is expected to grow by nearly 25% year-on-year to 9 million tonnes this year, a senior official from a major privately owned Chinese stainless steel mill told Interfax in Hong Kong today.
China produced 7.206 million tonnes of stainless steel in 2007, up 36% from the previous year, while the country's apparent consumption grew by 10.59% year-on-year to 6.58 million tonnes last year, down 3.61 percentage points from the previous year, according to statistics from the China Stainless Steel Enterprise Association.

"China's nickel pig iron production will maintain stable growth over the next few years, as domestic stainless steel consumption is due to grow by an average of 10% per annum," Jiang Xinfang, president general of Tsingshan Holding Group, China's largest privately owned stainless steel mill, said.
China's nickel pig iron output soared over the past few years, with the amount of nickel metal used for nickel pig iron production surging 246% from 26,000 tonnes in 2006 to 90,000 tonnes in 2007.
Jiang predicts that China's laterite ore imports will reach an average of 1.21 million tonnes per month this year, most of which will supply nickel pig iron capacity expansion projects across the nation. However, domestic nickel pig iron producers will still face challenges such as facility upgrades, environmental problems, soaring freight rates and a potential export tax rise on Indonesian laterite ore.
China imported 15.56 million tonnes laterite ore in 2007, skyrocketing 311.98% from the previous year, which was worth a total of $2.4 billion, according to the General Administration of Customs.
In November last year, Tsingshan Holding Group entered into a join-venture agreement with Indonesian state-controlled PT Antam Tbk to jointly construct an integrated nickel ore mining, smelting and stainless steel project.
The JV will develop a nickel deposit, as well as an associated power plant, a nickel pig iron plant and a stainless steel plant with a designed annual capacity of 300,000 tonnes, on Obi Island, North Maluku Province, Indonesia. The project is scheduled to commence operations in 2011, Jiang said.
Tsingshan Holding Group, headquartered in the city of Wenzhou in eastern China's Zhejiang Province, has an annual production capacity of 1 million tonnes of stainless steel, 700,000 tonnes of long products and steel strip, 30,000 tonnes of steel pipe and 20,000 tonnes of stainless steel wire per annum.
© Interfax-China 2008. For more intelligence on Chinese metals and mining, contact David Harman in Hong Kong at david.harman@interfax-news.com (david.harman@interfax-news.com).

[tricha]

Dam Pig iron is the problem jdg, it will flood the market. if it was not for bloody pig iron , nickel would be fetching 100,000 a ton right now.

China's Stainless Steel Output to Reach 9 Million Tonnes This Year
By Ginger Ding and Ida Chen
28 Mar 2008 at 10:10 AM GMT-04:00

HONG KONG (Interfax-China) -- China's stainless steel output is expected to grow by nearly 25% year-on-year to 9 million tonnes this year, a senior official from a major privately owned Chinese stainless steel mill told Interfax in Hong Kong today.
China produced 7.206 million tonnes of stainless steel in 2007, up 36% from the previous year, while the country's apparent consumption grew by 10.59% year-on-year to 6.58 million tonnes last year, down 3.61 percentage points from the previous year, according to statistics from the China Stainless Steel Enterprise Association.

"China's nickel pig iron production will maintain stable growth over the next few years, as domestic stainless steel consumption is due to grow by an average of 10% per annum," Jiang Xinfang, president general of Tsingshan Holding Group, China's largest privately owned stainless steel mill, said.
China's nickel pig iron output soared over the past few years, with the amount of nickel metal used for nickel pig iron production surging 246% from 26,000 tonnes in 2006 to 90,000 tonnes in 2007.
Jiang predicts that China's laterite ore imports will reach an average of 1.21 million tonnes per month this year, most of which will supply nickel pig iron capacity expansion projects across the nation. However, domestic nickel pig iron producers will still face challenges such as facility upgrades, environmental problems, soaring freight rates and a potential export tax rise on Indonesian laterite ore.
China imported 15.56 million tonnes laterite ore in 2007, skyrocketing 311.98% from the previous year, which was worth a total of $2.4 billion, according to the General Administration of Customs.
In November last year, Tsingshan Holding Group entered into a join-venture agreement with Indonesian state-controlled PT Antam Tbk to jointly construct an integrated nickel ore mining, smelting and stainless steel project.
The JV will develop a nickel deposit, as well as an associated power plant, a nickel pig iron plant and a stainless steel plant with a designed annual capacity of 300,000 tonnes, on Obi Island, North Maluku Province, Indonesia. The project is scheduled to commence operations in 2011, Jiang said.
Tsingshan Holding Group, headquartered in the city of Wenzhou in eastern China's Zhejiang Province, has an annual production capacity of 1 million tonnes of stainless steel, 700,000 tonnes of long products and steel strip, 30,000 tonnes of steel pipe and 20,000 tonnes of stainless steel wire per annum.
© Interfax-China 2008. For more intelligence on Chinese metals and mining, contact David Harman in Hong Kong at david.harman@interfax-news.com (david.harman@interfax-news.com).


U think nickel stocks are cheap now and it's safe to dip your toes back in, think carefully.

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/lme-warehouse-nickel-60d.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#lmestocks_60days)