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tricha
26-08-2005, 03:56 PM
TTR sucks, running out of nickel and now want more money for a gold play.


Well, Mincors payout disappointed, only 2 cents from 10.4 cents a share earning.[|)]

But the overall picture is they spent 38 million on mine developement( 3 new mines) and exploration out of cash.

They still made 20.3 million cash. Have no debt, money in the bank, are are going to produce 13,000 tons nickel this year.

And if Tethyan Copper sells will pick up between 5 - 10 million cash from their 15 million options.

So I will have to hang in there and be patient![^][^] Expect a huge result for this years earnings!:):)

Expect IGO yearly count up out later today, expect it to disapoint slightly. Last quarter poor!

JBmurc
27-08-2005, 04:14 PM
yeah not good sold out at 19.5c -may buy back in but would be in the 13c--15c with a better gold price 600+ to off set the higher fuel & labour costs;)

-AGM up strongly to 16.5c then fell back on lighter volume to under 15c which looks great buying to me;)

-AVM great buying under 50c just check out the copper price
-with everthing coming together now years end should see 70-75c at least with futher sp highs as this high risk high reward hit full steam through 06

tricha
28-08-2005, 08:05 PM
What does this statement mean [?][?][?], Hmm But during his conversation, he hinted further consolidation in the West Australian nickel industry was inevitable.

Record-breaker at BHP seeks new targets
By Jamie Freed
August 27, 2005

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For some chief executives, completing the biggest cash takeover in Australian history and following with record-setting earnings in the same year might justify taking a breather.

But as BHP Billiton chief executive Chip Goodyear revealed on Friday, he has also been working busily on deals behind the scenes.

Project or company acquisition possibilities raised in the media were only "a tiny fraction" of the deals BHP considered, he said.

Looking rested and relaxed at the company's Melbourne headquarters two days after reporting a $US6.4 billion ($8.6 billion) net profit, Mr Goodyear spoke about BHP's growth plans, noting that the hunt for great projects was becoming more competitive.

The commodities boom resulting from the industrialisation of China and India meant "everybody wants to be in the mining business these days", he said.

Some might say BHP's massive size gives it a huge advantage in selecting projects, and Mr Goodyear said that held true - but only in some cases. Sure, he said, many a junior prospector dreamed of teaming up with BHP on its project. But due to the many corporate layers at a company as large as BHP, many ideas were killed off before they made it to his desk.

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Advertisement"It's very easy to kill a project, but hard to get one up," Mr Goodyear said.

The American executive then summed up his investment philosophy by quoting ice hockey legend Wayne Gretzky."You miss every shot you don't take," he said.

In the past decade, BHP often took a shot and missed the goal.

On Wednesday, it finally closed the book on the disastrous hot briquetted iron project, which had been approved before Mr Goodyear joined the company as chief financial officer in 1999.

But while Mr Goodyear said there had been a huge turnaround in BHP's success rate since the 2001 merger with Billiton, he did not expect every project to be a winner.

"Some of our projects will fail. They should," he said.

"If they don't, we're not out there trying hard enough."

He was careful to note he would rather see a $US10 million project fail than a $US1 billion venture. He also declined to mention specific projects BHP was targeting.

But during his conversation, he hinted further consolidation in the West Australian nickel industry was inevitable. He also said BHP was taking a good look at projects in Eastern Europe, India and Brazil, where the company's portfolio was lacking. The emphasis was on world-class finds unlikely to be discovered in the well-studied grounds of Europe and North America.

"In the new world, you have to go to new places," Mr Goodyear said.

tricha
28-08-2005, 08:30 PM
You are on a winner in AGM JBmurc :):):) I'm keeping an eye on it!

Had a better read of Mincors report over the weekend and time to digest it.

Edify me if I am wrong someone [:o)][:o)]

They made 20.3 million profit + spent 32 million on 3 new mines and exploration out of cash.

This year their expenses for mine developement should be minimal!

Therefore they should report a profit of say $40,000,000 ( allowed $12,000,000 for exploration, etc.)

But wait theres more, a 30% mininal increase in nickel production.

$40,000,000 + 30% on $52,000,000 = $55,600,000 Profit

But wait theres more $55,600,000 + 5 to 10 million from TYC option sale.

So according to my calculation, if nickel prices stay around $19,000 a ton OZ, Mincor should report a profit of around $60,000,000 for this finical year.

Around 33c a share!;) Shares should be at least [?][?]

Food for thought

Cheers [B)][}:)]

And yes gold truely suks, CRS closed the Davyhurst mine last week, 100 jobs gone, mine losing money due to huge cost increases and the gold price remaining static over the last few years!

Seneca
29-08-2005, 07:36 PM
I too did some figures and can only agree Tricha -- the sp is very light with expected earnings of $50m + -- however I am a bit critical of mcr - no budget for the new year and room to pay more now in dividends - delayed gratification taken to extremes

tricha
30-08-2005, 12:43 AM
Delayed gratification, hmm.Probably my impatience!

Just read BHP,s dividend, not flash.

As far as a budget goes, MCR do not need one. They have already spent and as stated and restated by Mr Moore - We are harvesting!
They do not need a budget.

Hopefully given another year they will be like JBM, high dividends and then we shall see the price go.

But you are quite right, they need a plan, like JBM, invest in more nickel mining, not go of chasing fools gold at the end of the rainbow! Like others tend to do.
That's where we shall see their resources increased soon, from all the exploration and great results.

Personally hold four of these stocks and could quite easily hold the rest.

Regards [B)][}:)]


By Polly Yam

HONG KONG (Reuters) - China, which consumes more than 10 percent of the world's nickel, is set to increase imports in September because of lower supply from its top producer, potentially driving up world prices, industry officials said on Monday.

Lower nickel imports in July tightened domestic supply and pushed up prices, making imports more affordable, traders said.

They said China's nickel demand had stayed strong, supported by increased production from stainless steel mills that use nickel to shine and strengthen their output.

"Supply is tightening. Imports should rise," said a merchant in eastern coastal province of Jiangsu, one of China's two stainless steel bases. Another base is the nearby Zhejiang province.

Spot nickel traded at about 152,250 yuan a tonne on Monday, up 3.2 percent so far this month. World nickel prices have risen 3.5 percent in August to $14,950 a tonne on Monday for the delivery of three months on the London Metal Exchange.

Domestic prices were expected to rise further in the next few weeks because of falling supply, traders said.

Jinchuan Group, which produces about 75 percent of China's nickel, will shut down a main furnace for repair between September 6 and October 11, cutting output by more than 4,200 tonnes, an official said.

China produced 47,965 tonnes of nickel in the first half this year, up 14.1 percent from a year ago. The June output was 8,703 tonnes.

China, which imports almost half of its nickel consumption, imported 3,841 tonnes of refined nickel and nickel alloys in July, down 52.5 percent from June.

Imports rose 78.6 percent from a year ago to 51,967 tonnes in the first seven months this year. Major nickel suppliers to China include Inco Ltd., BHP Billiton Ltd./Plc. and Norilsk Nickel, the world's top producer.

STAINLESS

Chinese stainless steel producers have expanded production to meet fast-growing domestic demand.

Industry officials said that was creating an oversupply of the alloy, used in household appliances, construction and the machinery sector.

They said China produced 1.69 million tonnes of stainless steel in the first half this year, up 48 percent from a year ago. But imports still rose 32.7 percent to 1.98 million tonnes in the first six months.

China consumed about 2.45 million tonnes of stainless steel in the first half this year, officials said, with about half million tonnes in stocks held by mills and merchants.

"Mills are expanding too much and too fast. But imports are still regularly coming in," a mill manager in Zhejiang said.

The most common grade of cold-rolled stainless steel, 304, traded at about 21,000 yuan a tonne for 2mm thick, down 16 percent from July and 25 percent from January, officials said.

They said stainless mills were reluctant to curb production because they wanted to keep their clients.

Beijing's cooling measures on the property sector also had reduced demand of stainless steel.

"There has been no signs of picking up. We believe that is it for the rest of the year," said a trader for a mill in Qingdao in the northeast. Demand in previous years had started picking up in September after the summer slowdowns in the building

tricha
31-08-2005, 10:31 PM
Quiet,low turnover most stocks here, JBM sinking???

Still no IGO report??

But heres the great news and believe, this could see a huge resourse upgrade[:p]

Cheers [B)][}:)]
Mincor Anticipates New Mineral Resource




West Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL yesterday announced the results of further exploration drilling to the south of its Miitel Nickel Mine near Kambalda, with an intersection of high-grade massive sulphides providing strong support for its new interpretation of the mineralised channel in this position.

The new hole intersected a zone of high-grade massive sulphides in the predicted location - providing strong confirmatory evidence for Mincor of the revised interpretation and heightening expectations that a significant new mineral resource may be present.

The latest drill hole, MDD38W1, was drilled as a wedge off a previous hole and designed to test the northern end of a postulated flat-plunging mineralised body - the interpreted down-faulted extension of the Miitel ore trend. The hole passed through an upper un-mineralised basalt contact at 682 metres depth, then through a narrow but strongly mineralised basalt-basalt position at 715 metres depth.

Mincor’s assays confirm an intersection of 0.55 metres at 8.6% nickel (including a thickness of banded pentlandite ore assaying 12% nickel). The true width is estimated at 0.42 metres.

Mincor is currently progressing with a further hole at the southern end of the South Miitel prospect. This is a step-out hole aimed at a position 80 metres south of the existing drilling. If successful, this hole will provide final confirmation of the postulated flat-plunging channel structure and enable Mincor to commence infill drilling on a possible new resource, as well as to continue step-out drilling to extend the mineralisation to the south.

- 31 Aug 2005

Sid
01-09-2005, 08:04 AM
Hi Tricha,

What IGO report are you expecting?

Cheers, Sid

tricha
03-09-2005, 05:39 PM
Hi Sid

After the Preliminary Final Report which I would have thought would have been out.

Worked out Mincor the better option, disapointing last quarter from IGO.( But I'm sure better things to come) Report not that important, as nickel price 3 months behind and not final.

Been sliding out of IGO back into Mincor, rate Mincor the best value at the moment.
Mincor slipped slightly this week due to dividend date.

SMY loooking great buying at 78 cents, good brief out! Plenty of upside here.

Nickel – 2007 price forecasts are lower
Source: Purchasing

See also:
Nickel Board
Nickel CatalogNickel prices are going to slide though 2007, suggest Jim Lennon at Macquarie Bank, Alan Heap at Citigroup and Fraser Phillips at RBC Capital Markets – because of expanded supply ahead. Nickel prices are projected to average $7/lb this year. Lennon sees tags sliding to $6.50/lb in 2006 and $5.75 in 2007. A more-bearish Heap sees nickel averaging $5 next year and $4 in 2007. While Phillips forecasts $7 in 2006, he sees $6 in 2007.

Nickel futures traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have risen by 60% over the past two years as output from mines has lagged world consumption driven by Chinese demand for stainless steel. Demand for nickel is expected to exceed supply by 16,000 metric tons, Standard Bank of London has calculated. Toronto-based Inco has a major mine and smelter project already underway in Canada and is plotting another development project in New Caledonia. Melbourne-based BHP Billiton also is planning a billion-dollar project, in southwestern Australia.

Have a great weekend [B)][}:)]

tricha
08-09-2005, 11:10 PM
Two good broker reports out on Mincor recently (WWW.mincor.com.au)under broker reports.

Mincor weakened due to dividend, suspect JBM on dividend as well.

WSA going for it!


Nickel Prices To Fall As Demand Softens - Citigroup



Wednesday September 7, 11:24 PM EDT


SYDNEY -(Dow Jones)- Nickel prices are expected to come under continued short- term pressure from relatively weak global demand reflecting oversupply in the stainless steel industry, according to Citigroup analysts.

Cutbacks in stainless steel production, nickel's main consumer, and increasing scrap consumption should see prices continue to ease from May's peak of US$8 a pound to average US$6.63 this year, Thomas Price and Alan Heap said in a report.

Nickel's long-term outlook is even bleaker, with prices set to average US$5 next year and US$4 in 2007, they said.

"These are still substantial prices for current producers, although it may bring into question the viability of some small- to medium-size projects scheduled to come online over that period," the analysts wrote.






Despite China's booming industry, global stainless steel growth is slowing, with first-half output this year up 5.7% compared with 7.8% in 2004 and further cutbacks likely to mean negative growth in the second half.

Falling stainless steel prices and higher alloy surcharges are behind the cutbacks, they said.

Increasing scrap metal competitiveness and availability are also likely to eat into global demand for primary nickel, Citigroup said.

On the supply side, growth in mine production has been less than expected, offsetting demand weakness.

However, Citigroup still expects an increase in mine supply of almost 100,000 metric tons next year, half from Inco Ltd. (N)'s (N.TO) Voisey's Bay operation in Canada and half from expansions at small operations mostly in Western Australia and Europe.

Key areas of short-term supply uncertainty include a protracted strike at Inco's Manitoba operations, and labor disruptions at Voisey's Bay, the analysts said.

New projects and capacity expansions in China are almost entirely supporting forecast growth in global stainless steel production, they said.

Global primary nickel demand for 2004-2008 is forecast to increase at 3.5% thanks to China's 26% growth, as demand in Europe and Taiwan stays flat, Japan's falls 6.5%, South Korea's slides 4% and the U.S.' eases 1.4%.

-By James Attwood, Dow Jones Newswires; 612-8235-2957; james.attwood@ dowjones.com

-Edited by George Bernard

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-07-05 2324ET

Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

© 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Sid
12-09-2005, 03:01 PM
[quote]Originally posted by tricha

Hi Sid

After the Preliminary Final Report which I would have thought would have been out. [quote]

Tricha, out today. Confirms dividend and gives payment date.

tricha
14-09-2005, 02:58 PM
New out on Mincor - Open Briefing. Mincor. Reserves Results & Outlook

Goes with the brokers reports out recently.(Buy)

Nickel, nickel and more nickel![:p][:p][:p]

Expect to see 100,000 tons in reserves by the end of the fin year, appears open in all directions. [:p]

Fox resources - news out regarding assays lastest copper hits, massive.

Potential to hit the big one?

Expect both to be takeover targets, price being so low and excellent tenants!

Independence Group news out - steady as she goes.

Juicy payout announced last quarter to hide a poor quarter,hmm.

With as Sid pointed out yearly one out at last.

Broker reports (Hold)

Regards[B)][}:)]

tricha
19-09-2005, 11:10 PM
True or False, time will tell

Mining, scrap & inventories cannot meet nickel demand
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '18-SEP-05 04:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004



RENO--(Mineweb.com) Inco President and COO Peter Jones told the Merrill Lynch 11th Annual Mining Conference that, despite some substitution, the demand for nickel remains healthy, particularly in China, where it rose 50% during the first half of this year.

And, Jones added, primary nickel production, secondary stainless steel scrap, and nickel inventories are all unable to satisfy the underlying demand.

During the first quarter of this year, China surpassed the US as the world's largest nickel consumer, accounting for 16% of demand. Jones said China "lacks domestic nickel resources and processing capability" with domestic nickel production only meeting 50% of Chinese demand. The Asia-Pacific region consumes about 50% of world nickel demand and comprises 60% of Inco's sales. Jones estimated that 560 Inco employees already work in China. "As the Chinese nickel market grows, we will grow with it," he declared.

The good news is that Inco's massive Voisey Bay project in Labrador has just produced its first concentrate this past week, six months ahead of schedule. Production at Voisey's Bay will continue to ramp up during the next few months with 110 million pounds of nickel in concentrate expected to be produced next year.

China has embarked on the stainless steel consumption growth path taken by Japan, Taiwan and Korea, Jones explained. China's domestic stainless capacity should increase by 6 million tonnes in the next five years and account for more than 70% of the world's stainless steel growth, according to Jones.

While most stainless steel producers reduced output in the third quarter and are expected to continue to do so in the short term, Jones noted that the "third quarter is always slow. In fact, stainless production falls 6% on average in the summer months." He forecasted that a 9% drop in stainless steel production (600,000 tonnes) between the second and third quarter should eliminate most of the excess inventories. "Clearly the stainless steel industry is intent on reversing oversupply and providing a solid base for growth in the fourth quarter and in 2006," Jones declared, adding some stainless producers may still continue to reduce output during the fourth quarter of this year.

As a result, Inco is forecasting annual stainless production growth of 4.3% this year. Jones also noted that the scrap ratio for this year will rise to nearly 49%, "the highest level on record." Nevertheless, Jones insisted, LME plus producer nickel inventories "are still at the lowest levels in history--less than four weeks of demand. High nickel prices have failed to prove the existence of unreported-or hidden-stocks."

Jones predicted that underlying nickel demand will be strong in 2006 with economic conditions at least as good as this year. Meanwhile, nickel inventories will be low at the beginning of next year, while Inco has projected that nickel demand growth for 2006 will be held to about 3-4%, according to Jones, below the long-term average, leading to continued high and volatile prices. "Composite leading indicators have turned positive pointing to a recovery at the beginning of next year. The aerospace cycle is gaining strength; and world stainless capacity will be up by mover 2.5 million tonnes as Chinese producers ramp up," he said.

While four new nickel mines are expected to come on line over the next two years, Jones said nickel demand will still not be met. For instance, "only a portion of Voisey Bay's output will be new to the market," he explained. Voisey's Bay is expected to produce 50,000 tonnes yearly beginning in the first quarter of next year.

"A number of nickel projects are at the feasibility stage but several are delayed, dye to capital cost increases, financing issues, or other reasons. So project challenges are large. Additional new supply may be available later than many people think," Jones said.

Inco's other

tricha
22-09-2005, 01:26 PM
Mincor is cooking with gas, well not quite, big volume, new nickel strike confirmed!:)

Breakaway resources on the move as well, see what happens there, drilling next to JBM on the same nickel zone, bring it on![}:)]

[B)][}:)]

Sid
25-09-2005, 07:14 PM
Tricha,

Have you caught up with this IGO news, looks good:

LONG NICKEL MINE – 2005 ORE RESERVES AND RESOURCES
Highlights
• Long Nickel Mine reserves increased to 1,283,500t at 3.8% nickel for 49,370 nickel
tonnes
• 25% increase in nickel metal reserves after taking 2004/5 production of 8,868t nickel into
account
• The new McLeay deposit is open to the north, south and east.
• Further resource/reserve increases are likely - a number of extensional nickel sulphide
intercepts remain to be assayed.

pago
25-09-2005, 08:10 PM
hi,sid, both igo and mcr are looking good,not the 100% overnight upside,but little risk,cheers pago.

tricha
01-10-2005, 11:47 PM
Hi Sid

IGO does look good and the share price is going for it,(maybe somthing in the takeover rumour late August) unfortunately I sold all my IGO between $1.45 and $1.63 before the last rally and bought extensively into MCR, which I will stick too.

Sort to medium term I(so do most brokers) rate MCR as a better share, e.g earnings per share will be the same\if not better than IGO.

19C plus on a 75 cent share is outstanding and they will find heaps more nickel.

AGM has a long way to go to pay a dividend and there are a heap of shares.

WSA what can you say, should be as good as JBM in a few years, outstanding

SMY pretty quiet as late, below brokers valuation.

FXR hard to read.

Topped up on BRW as a pure speculation play, starting to look a good little company, restructured, excellent management and Lionore starting to play a major role.

As for the nickel price who knows (no one knows), but great to see ironore in demand again with price rises forcast, which should lead to more s\s production.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

sparrow
02-10-2005, 04:22 PM
Subscribers to this topic - - FYI

Becalmed as stainless woes cloud horizon


Metals Insider - 26 September 2005



MI WEEK IN REVIEW: In a week when so much activity on the LME and other commodity markets seemed to reflect the course of Hurricane Rita, nickel was a becalmed backwater for much of the time. This particular market was still recovering from the huge sell-off of the previous two weeks, although a deteriorating stainless steel picture is further clouding nickel's short-term price horizon.



In terms of price action, most of it took place on the Monday, when 3-month metal clawed its way back from the lows of $13,000 per tonne to the $13,500 level at the close.



That seemed to be a function of light short-covering from fund players. Our sources suggest that the CTA systematic fund community had collectively gone slightly short of nickel the previous week but by Tuesday the collective exposure was pretty much flat. The natural response to the $2,000 collapse from highs above $15,000 was aided and abetted by strength in copper, which roared higher as a new wave of fund money poured into the red metal.



The lack of genuine buy-side activity was then evident to see, with nickel tracking sideways for much of the rest of the week, a “billy-no-mates” among the LME metals. The lack of action is best summed up by the fact that it closed at $13,500 on three days—Monday, Tuesday and Thursday. Only on Friday did it edge up quietly to $13,650 at the close, a weekly gain of $500 that can only be described as corrective.



More movement was seen in the nearby spreads than in the 3-month price. The benchmark cash-3s spread contracted from $220 backwardation at Monday's close to $125 at Friday's.



The easing structure of the nearby market is a direction function of the liquidity currently being injected into LME-registered stocks. They have been up every day for the last two weeks, despite some days of relatively high drawdowns and it's worth noting the extent of the stocks rebuild so far in the third quarter—up 5,046 from 6,882t on July 1.



Stainless Deterioration

Where's all this metal coming from? Well, you don't need to be a rocket-scientist to draw the obvious conclusions from what is happening in the stainless steel sector—the single biggest end-use sector for nickel.



The shake-out in nickel prices appears to have been accompanied by a full realization of just how much of a correction has been taking place in the once-booming stainless sector.



Even before we look at events in the third quarter, it's worth highlighting the report released last week by the International Stainless Steel Forum.



Its figures covered only the first half of this year but showed a significant slowdown in stainless production even during the second quarter. It estimates that stainless output growth more than halved to 3.6% year-on-year in Q2 from 7.6% in Q1.



But even that stark comparison only tells half the story. By region, only Asia recorded any growth at all in the first half of 2005—up 13.4% year-on-year—with production in Western Europe falling 0.4%, that in the Americas by 2.2% and that in Central/Eastern Europe by 24.7%.



And even when it comes to Asia, growth is largely confined to just two countries— China , which registered phenomenal growth of 54% year-on-year in the first half of 2005, and India , which saw production rise 10%.



That Chinese growth rate—a key plank of nickel bulls' arguments for sustained higher prices—is so strong it appears to risk destabilizing the global stainless market. Last week also brought suggestions by Chinese officials that at current expansion rates, the country will not only become fully self-sufficient in stainless within a couple of years but could in fact turn to net exporter.



The impact is already being felt in stainless pricing, which brings us to the Q3 cutbacks in stainless production. Just about every major Western producer has reduced output this quarter and s

Sid
11-10-2005, 07:10 PM
3 good announcements from IGO in the last 2 days.

1. High Grade Extensions to McLeay Nickel Resource
2. Significant nickel sulphide mineralisation encountered
3. Dalwallinu Gold Project - High Grade Virgin Gold Discovery

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do?method=searchByCode&issuerCode=igo&timeFrameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=W&x=29&y=13

tricha
15-10-2005, 02:12 AM
Great announcements from most companies.

Unfortunately the Nickel price is a major worry!

It did exactly the same this time last year, as a caution I reduced holding and bought gold stock, hold cash, will wait and see.

News from the USA is quite scary and as everyone knows you can not trust a word they say!

IGO holding up well, someone buying ??? Huge potential and sneaky feeling take over under way.
Has gold tenants and as Sid said previously, big new strike!

MCR dropped a little, but no debt, cash and no great out goings. Were under valued anyway. Plenty of gold to be found in their tenants around Widgemoolta.

FXR is hard to read into what really is happening, reports coming out self promoting and misleading.

AGM, with nickel dropping will find it harder to get to mining stage.

SMY great new discovery, but 32 million debt.

JBM no great worry, The best as far as mines goes.

WSA has another great jewel.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

JBmurc
16-10-2005, 08:48 PM
buying a gold stock Tricha[:p] ;)not like you ,what you buy BDG,ODG,SBM
etc

brought into SBM myself at 30.5c the other day, final sold my AVM at 53.5c was :D with 55% gain for the couple months.

like the look of SBM some great assets maybe even have some nickel on the go soon.

pago
16-10-2005, 10:44 PM
hi trish and sid,people need to realise IGO is primarily an explorer,multible interests in other prospects/tenaments/joint ventures.the igo current mining operations are providing the cash for dividends and their exploration.they are cash producing and exploring at the same time which imho rates igo as a low risk,possible breakout,cheers pago.

tricha
17-10-2005, 12:27 PM
Yes Pago , IGO a producer and explorer, excellent company, but so is MCR, Producer explorer and cheap!

JBmerc, at least you will be able to sleep at night with AVM gone, great profit.

Took your cue today, researched StBarbara Mines last night and bought in at 29c a few minutes a go, article in this monthes shares on gold and them, looks a great producing gold company!
The other one I bought last week was BMA gold, 19 gms for 327,000 ozs and huge upside, starts producing soon.( articule in Resourse Stocks OCT )

Regards [B)][}:)]

tricha
17-10-2005, 03:16 PM
Time will tell, if so Mincor a steal at 68c
and so will Sally Mallay be

Nickel supply shortfall forecast


By MELODY M. AGUIBA


Inco Ltd. (IL) of Canada, one of the world’s largest nickel producers, is projecting a 50,000-tonne annual nickel shortage arising from China’s huge nickel demand that is prompting the search for more nickel finds.





Nick Sheard, IL vice president for exploration, told reporters during the Asia Pacific Mining Conference that the shortage is foreseen to hound up to 2009.

Four projects are expected to bring nickel production starting 2006. These are Inco’s Voisey’s Bay, 50,000 tonnes, first quarter 2006; Inco’s Goro, 60,000 tonnes; BHP Billiton’s Ravensthorpe, fourth quarter, 2007; and Vermelho, 46,000 tonnes, fourth quarter, 2008.

But production from these projects will not be enough.

"We have projects coming online, but the world still requires an extra 50,000 tons," he said.

"With an assumed four percent long-term nickel demand growth rate, the market needs a ‘Goro-size’ project every year to meet increased demand at that rate. Only a portion of Voisey’s Bay will represent new nickel on the market."

Inco’s Goro has 37.7 million tonnes at 1.5 percent nickel, 0.12 percent cobalt and is one of world’s highest grade and largest leacheable nickel laterite deposits.

Sheard said five years of under-investment due to unrealized expectations from Australian acid leach projects caused tight nickel markets, although projects will begin beefing up nickel supply by 2006.

World nickel demand is taken up largely by Europe, 36 percent followed by other Asian countries, 31 percent; Japan, 15 percent; and US and Canada, 11 percent.

Despite the shortage’s being foreseen only up to 2009, Sheard said exploration companies always look forward to new exploration areas due to the long-term nature of mineral development.

"Exploration is such a long term game. It takes about seven years from discovery to mining," he said. He said IL is also looking at possible exploration project in the Philippines, but declined to comment on the area it is eyeing.

"We think there’s potential in the Philippines. There’s been a lack of exploration in the Philippines, so we still expect a lot of opportunities," he said.

IL is involved locally in two major fabrication yards for Goro. It has made investments needed to assume a leading market position in Asia. This includes those in Inco TNC Ltd (Japan, 1965); Taiwan Nickel Refining Company (1984); Shanghai Sales Office (1004); Korea Nickel Company (1989); and Jinco Non-Ferrous Metals Co. (Kunshun, China, 1997).

IL is in talks with Falcon Bridge for a forthcoming merger which will provide a synergy for the merged company that will make it world’s biggest nickel producer.

"There are synergies in exploration that will be considerable. We’re not exploring copper in South America, they do. They don’t explore in China, we do," he said.

IL has more exploration projects in Goro in New Caledonia and PTI in Indonesia. In July this year, it began mining at Petea, Malaysia which produces about one million tonnes of saprolitic nickel ore per year.

tricha
21-10-2005, 12:04 AM
Its a Steel!

North Miitel Shapes Up For Mincor

Redross Nickel Mine


Kambalda nickel producer Mincor Resources NL has reported strong September quarter production figures and said a highlight of the quarter had been the outstanding performance of its new North Miitel ore body.

Mincor said that strike drives completed through the central portion of North Miitel had demonstrated excellent continuity and width as well as nickel grades well above those predicted by the ore reserve model.

The strong early results from North Miitel are a key highlight of Mincor’s September Quarter, together with unexpectedly high grades from the Redross Mine, rising production from the Mariners Mine, and the ongoing drill-out of the new discovery at South Miitel with two diamond rigs currently in action.

Mincor said production for the quarter had been strong, with provisional figures indicating over 3,200 tonnes of nickel metal in concentrate (3,670 tonnes nickel contained in ore) produced and sold.

Mincor discovered the North Miitel ore body through extensional exploration drilling during 2002, and made the decision to develop it in late 2003, committing to a $17 million extension of the decline and associated infrastructure. The first of the two North Miitel ore bodies, the smaller N14, was intersected in March and provided the first hint of what was to come, with better than expected grades, width and size.

Underground development reached the main, much larger, N11 ore body in August, with two strike drives currently underway along the length of that ore body. The lower strike drive, the 421 Level, has now been driven a distance of 170m along the strike of the central portion of the ore body, revealing a wide, continuous, straight and near-vertical ore body consisting of high-grade matrix and good disseminated ore.

“We now have a slice right through the centre of the main North Miitel ore body,” commented Managing Director, David Moore. “As a result, the ‘resource risk’ associated with the new ore body has now largely been eliminated from North Miitel. That alone is worth a cheer, but to discover that the ore body is so much better than expected is a great bonus.”

- 20 Oct 2005

Cheers [B)][}:)]

tricha
26-10-2005, 11:52 PM
Inco ¨C Surplus stainless inventories correcting lower
Source: Dow Jones



See also:
Stainless Steel Board
Stainless Steel CatalogSurplus stainless steel inventories which built in the second quarter of the year have been correcting lower with growth in that sector to resume soon, Inco (N) Chairman and Chief Executive Scott Hand said Tuesday.

"While this situation in the stainless steel industry has had a short-term effect on nickel prices, overall market fundamentals remain strong, and we believe that the end of this inventory correction is in sight," Hand said.

"A number of leading economic indicators remain positive and we expect that, once this stainless steel inventory correction has run its course, stainless steel production growth should resume in late 2005 or early in 2006," he added.

Stainless steel is the principle end-use market for primary nickel.

In a statement accompanying Inco's third quarter results, Hand said the oversupply situation arose as production from a number of new facilities came on stream.

The correction to this oversupply has taken longer to be realized than expected, he noted, with an inventory buildup leading to a rise in London Metal Exchange stocks and a rise in the benchmark cash nickel price from July.

For the third quarter, LME cash nickel averaged $6.61 a pound versus $7.44/lb in the second quarter of 2005. LME cash nickel prices averaged $5.71/lb during the first three weeks of October.

Hand meanwhile said that non-stainless steel markets for nickel continue to show "very favorable growth."

"Demand in non-stainless steel applications such as for aerospace and plating in China continues to be extremely strong," he said.

"Growth in these markets has also been enhanced by increased activity in those end-uses for nickel relating to oil and gas and liquid natural gas exploration and production, and hybrid automobiles," he added.

#9668; Back Back to top ˇř

Sid
22-11-2005, 02:29 PM
IGO's having a good run and is threatening the previous high. Is this a delayed reaction to the McLeay news on the 15th.

MCLEAY NICKEL SULPHIDE DEPOSIT: HIGH-GRADE EXTENSIONS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE RESOURCE
Key Points:
• Further high-grade nickel intercepts outside reserves/resources returned from McLeay
deposit – still open to the north, south and east.
• Assay results from previously announced visual estimates include hole MDU-041 which
intersected 17m @ 10.7% Ni (including 8.5m @ 16.1% Ni) from Shoot 1.
• Visual estimates of new intersections include:
• 3.1m @ 12% Ni
• 3.3m @ 10% Ni
• 4.2m @ 6% Ni
McLeay resource of 13,000 Ni tonnes (at grade of 6.7% Ni) expected to increase substantially.
Updated resource due for completion in December 2005.

tricha
24-12-2005, 02:08 AM
Not just any indicator but a Keith Nielsen indicator Trading halt TYC, interesting to see if Mincor exits their options and David Moore exits CEO, could be an xtra boost for MCR,s coffers and allow David Moore to re focus Mincor,

AFX News Limited
Antofagasta buys 50 pct stake in Tethyan Copper's interests in Pakistan UPDATE
12.23.2005, 05:31 AM

LONDON (AFX) - Antofagasta PLC said it will buy a 50 pct stake in Tethyan Copper Co Ltd's mineral interests in Pakistan and a 19.95 pct interest in Australian-listed Tethyan.

Antofagasta, together with Tethyan, will also terminate BHP Billiton's rights to claw-back a material interest in certain of Tethyan's mineral interests. They will pay Billiton 50 mln usd in compensation.

Antofagasta's total financial commitment under the transaction, including the exploration and development expenditure commitment, is expected to amount to 133 mln usd, it said.

Tethyan's principal assets are a 75 pct interest in the exploration licence encompassing the highly prospective Chagai Hills region of North West Pakistan known as Reko Diq, which includes the Tanjeel Mineral Resource and the Western Porphyries, and a 100 pct interest in certain other licences in the region.

Tethyan has reported total indicated and inferred mineral resource estimates at its properties of 1.2 bln tonnes with a copper grade of 0.58 pct and a gold grade of 0.28 grams per tonne. The resource estimates include probable reserves at the Tanjeel Mineral Resource of 128.8 mln tonnes.

Tethyan is currently subject to an unsolicited takeover offer from Skafell Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of Crosby Capital Partners Inc and IB Daiwa Corp. It has unanimously recommended that its shareholders reject the Skafell offer and approve the proposed transaction with Antofagasta.

'Our agreement with Tethyan Copper Co provides Antofagasta with a window into a very prospective mining region and represents a strategic investment opportunity for us,' said Marcelo Awad, chief executive of Antofagasta Minerals SA.

Chilean-based Antofagasta said it continues to look at opportunities globally to secure rights to world-class mining assets.

JBmurc
03-01-2006, 05:11 PM
MCR -strong buy at these prices -major selling maybe over now from AMP so much upside with very little risk up 1.5 to 65.5c;)

SEC
11-01-2006, 10:30 PM
Nickel prices up 25% from Nov lows, LME inventories plateauing, and other nickel co's rebounding well, except MCR. Why? Barring undisclosed production problems I can only presume AMP is still selling down - to zero. That's fine by me, it has given me a opportunity to buy a few on the cheap.

I realise reserves are relatively short at ~4 years and about 1/3 of their production is hedged but if MCR can convert their recent resource discoveries to reserves there's plenty of life at Kambalda to well beyond 2010 - and hopefully plenty of life in the share price too.

Consensus PEs for 06, 07 and 08 are 4.5, 3.3 and 5.1. Far too low, even given the reserve issues. Furthermore, those numbers haven't changed since Nov and I note none of the major brokers have changed their eps estimates despite the Ni price recovery. All we need is one of them to update their estimates and the herd will follow.

SEC

Caveat - there's a stop loss if the quarterly report is crap.

JBmurc
13-01-2006, 01:52 PM
MCR strong buy imo;) may buy a CFD(40%Ln)before resource update comes out in march-- holding ords at a bargin 66c(80+ imo)

;)just brought back into AGM 15c 48hrs ago up 10% to 16.5c already:D (30-35c in 06)

nickel,s looks good for a bullish year

tricha
14-01-2006, 05:07 PM
Mincor - Going to be an interesting half year report next month,AMP have now finished dumping, now not in top 20, as 3rd Jan, < than .48%.

Nickel back to over $19,000 a ton OZ and record production on it's way.

Hoping for a 2c dividend announced around 20th Feb!

Regards [B)][}:)]

JBmurc
16-01-2006, 07:59 PM
-how about AGM ;) major buying today 6.7million volume trading up 19c up 26% from only days ago some news on the way hopefully a contract with a major chinese buyer ;);)
MCR-68c-P.E 5.28 - great buy at these levels just compare to IGO- 1.83 P.E-10 three times the sp of MCR [?]

Sid
24-01-2006, 10:07 AM
Excellent Dec quarter for IGO:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IGO&E=ASX&N=311818

GROUP HIGHLIGHTS

Production 62,872t @ 4.01% Ni – 2,519 nickel tonnes (Ni t) (Budget 2,199 Ni t)

NPAT - $7.4 million after $0.8 million exploration write off and $2.2 million write up of September 2005 quarter receivables due to increase in nickel price during the December quarter

$21.5 million cash and net receivables (Sep $28.6m) after debt repayment of $0.8 million, tax payment of $6.8 million and dividend payment of $5.5 million

Independence Group (IGO) awarded “Miner of the Year” at the Excellence in Exploration & Mining Conference in October 2005

Ore Reserves increased to 1.43 million tonnes at 3.9% Ni (55,290 Ni t), prior to taking 2005/6 production into account

OPERATIONS HIGHLIGHTS

Production – 62,872t at 4.01% Ni for 2,519 Ni t (Budget 2,199 Ni t)

Cash costs A$3.28/lb payable nickel (budget A$3.81)

1,127 Ni t (45% of production) mined outside or in excess of June 2005 ore reserves

Further high-grade drill results at McLeay nickel deposit

Interim McLeay resources and reserves announced, with the deposit remaining open to the north, south and east

Long South decline has progressed and is currently 90 metres from the northern edge of the Long South target area (drillhole KD6067BW7 – 3.6m @ 3.3%Ni)

EXPLORATION HIGHLIGHTS
NICKEL/OTHER
Ravensthorpe JV - rock chip sample returned 10g/t Au and 37% Cu and high order electromagnetic (EM) conductor identified

Goldsworthy JV - high-grade iron ore drill intercepts, including 18m @ 60.2% Fe, 16m @ 62.7% Fe, 16m @ 60.2% Fe and 46m @ 61.4% Fe

GOLD
Tropicana JV - true width drill intercepts including 32m @ 6.6g/t Au, 9m @ 6.3 g/t Au and 20m @ 2.3g/t Au

Dalwallinu - virgin gold discovery with drill intercepts including 7m @ 30.0g/t Au

David Hardman
27-01-2006, 01:42 PM
Ohhhh baby. IGO is flying over the last few days!! . Has been some great volume traded since the qtyly.
Someone taking a stake?

Sid
27-01-2006, 07:41 PM
For such a quality company, IGO has been a sleeper. Good to see it run past $2.00.

pago
27-01-2006, 08:13 PM
hi,holding both igo,up82% and mcr,breakeven,mcr will go up,cheers pago.

tricha
27-01-2006, 09:15 PM
How things can change in such a short time, for better [8D] or worse [xx(]!

Well JBmeru, you have done extremely well sticking to AGM!:)

In fact IGO, JBM, SMY, WSA and now MCR are all breaking out.
Must be something about the nickel price approaching $20,000 OZ again, a few months ago it was looking pretty sick [xx(]

Five months ago I would not have given TTR, a look in, but with gold ramping from $500 to $740 an ounce for GOLD, who can ignore it.

IGO have some pretty interesting gold interests as well and do not write Mincor off in this aspect.

MCR - my view only

Will break out on their half yearly report, should be a great one like IGO

1 - production should be at least on target, for 13,000 tons.

2 - Costs should be going down, that drop in nickel 1st quarter should have had spurred action on spending, costs.
Also major spend over, harvesting.

3 - Nickel back over $19,000 a ton OZ

4 - AMP well and truely finished. Thank goodness for that, bacially I think their selling has put Mincors price, in a dark hole
From memory I think they literally dumped 17 million shares, in the last year.

Cheers [}:)][}:)]

SEC
30-01-2006, 11:50 PM
Looked like a solid production report for MCR, 13000 tonnes on track, working on increasing resource estimates. The market liked it, MCR up 13% this month, and Ni almost $7.00/lb as destocking ends. Looking good for 80c again. Good calls Tricha.

SEC

SEC
02-02-2006, 10:53 PM
Since stainless steel producers have been able to put their prices up they have been starting to restock their alloy inputs. Should keep nickel's price around $7+/lb for a while.

SEC

kura
03-02-2006, 01:42 PM
Ive just put some dollars down on MBN (Mirabela Nickel) after reading some positive reports on them, anyone know much about them ?

wns
08-02-2006, 12:34 AM
Quick question on MCR's second qtr report back on 30th Jan...

In the hedging statement it mentions they have forward sold 5,352 tonnes of payable nickel metal which represents approx 30% of their budgeted production for the period (Jan 2006 - March 2008).
So that would mean 17,840 tonnes of budgeted production over the next 2.25 years. Yet they are shooting for approx 13,000 t this financial year -> at least 29,000 t over the next 2.25 years. Is that a discrepancy or am I missing something? Sorry if its a simple question.

tricha
09-02-2006, 09:12 AM
WNS - The hedging % must be a discrepancy, I'm picking Mincor should go closer too 14,000 tons of nickel ( if u take in account this quarters result) than the 13,000 they have predicted.

And Mariners is now into full swing, so even more Nickel.

Nickel close to $21,000 oz a ton again, lets hope it stays above $20,000 for the next 6 months.

Pity their extensive gold drilling turned up nothing!

As far as Mirabela Nickel, I've never heard of them. Can't comment.

;)[}:)]

SEC
10-02-2006, 09:00 AM
Nickel smashed through $7/lb overnight!! I wonder if that finally gets the analysts which have been asleep at heir job to finally start upgrading the Nico's.

SEC

SEC
12-02-2006, 12:00 PM
Well that was short lived. Price was basically back to where it was two days ago but I'll put money on the Nico's being lower than they were two days ago. The market never seems to adjust properly in the short term - always presenting tading opportunities.

SEC

wns
15-02-2006, 10:21 PM
Annoucement today from MCR...

Antofagasta are making an off-market bid for Tethyan Copper @ $1.20 per share and Mincor have entered into a pre-bid acceptance agreement whereby they will transfer their 12,557,566 Tethyan options to Antofagasta (subject to a number of things) for which MCR receives net amount of $13.185m ($1.20 bid price - $0.15 exercise price = $1.05 per option)

The agreement also allows MCR to benefit fully from any other superior offers for Tethyan. There's more to it but that's some main points.

MCR have certainly done well out of their investment in Tethyan.

I'm assuming if the deal goes through this financial year then this adds $13.185m NPBT to MCR's profit result for 05-06?

I have recently bought some MCR.

SEC
16-02-2006, 09:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by wns

I'm assuming if the deal goes through this financial year then this adds $13.185m NPBT to MCR's profit result for 05-06?


Or the NPAT equivalent of 4.8cps. Since MCR has no debt this could be returned to shareholders or used for a on-market buyback. The market has slowly realised over the past couple of days that MCR is in for a nice windfall here.

SEC

pago
16-02-2006, 10:08 PM
hi sec,i saw 6c per share upside,the market showed 1/5c.thats the market right now,it will change in a few weeks,perhaps mcr may do a special divy,cheers pago.

tricha
24-02-2006, 11:14 PM
Well all good in the Nickel corner and will remain so if the price stays over $19,000 a ton OZ.
All doing extremely well.

Mincor being the dog of the field as far as price goes, but what a great report out yesterday.

The selling is still there, but finally the price is moving north again and it should continue for a while yet.

1 - 2 cents a share dividend.

2 - On track for 13,000 tons plus, I'm picking 14,000

3 - costs coming down this quarter.

4 - Another resource upgrade coming.

5 - If the nickel price stays up, expect 20 million profit 2nd half.
Already 2 months gone with $20,000 a ton OZ. ( 5 cents end of year dividend is on the cards)

6 - And of course the 13 million cash bonus care of TYC options.
Thanks to Mr Moore, who is a very astute businessman. Expect a lot more to come from him.

Why isn't it at a dollar now ?? Institutions like AMP selling, but I managed to pick up more at 64.5 cents.
Bless the institutions souls for giving away shares at a discounts.

Cheers

JBmurc
08-03-2006, 09:28 AM
this is from wise-owl -30c sounds good to me ;)
MCR is also a very strong buy 12month target 85c+



AGM Spec Buy Allegiance Mining
NL

12 Month Price Target $0.30
Proven management team with a track
record of success.
Successful $7.2m capital raising in
December was oversubscribed with
strong institutional support.
Low cost mineralisation structure is
simple to extract and easily converted
into nickel concentrate.
Improving outlook for nickel prices.
Institutional registrar includes the highly
regarded Lion Selection Group (10.5%).
Stock has emerged from a triangle
pattern to form a bullish trend.
Summary

Background
Allegiance Mining NL (AGM) is an Australia-based mineral exploration company
that has discovered a number of high quality nickel sulfide deposits in Tasmania. A
key ore body and focus of attention for the company is a medium-sized nickel
deposit of 7.7 million tones grading 1.5% nickel over two deposits: Viking and
Avebury.
Investment Summary
AGM is moving into a crucial time in its life cycle as it gears up to start production
of a world class nickel concentrate in late 2006. Management has indicated that
the mine is likely to reach capacity at almost double the initial 5,700tpa of
concentrate that the mines feasibility study was based on to show the mine as
viable. Exceeding these early feasibility targets and further upgrades in the
resource base through exploration, are both likely to be key share price drivers.
An experienced management team, strong funding support and an improving
outlook for the nickel price all point to a potential re-rating in the stock price.
Management
Anthony W. Howland-Rose Chairman of the Board
Anthony is a qualified geophysicist who has contributed to many major discoveries in
Australia including the Mt Windara and South Mt Keith nickel deposit in Western Australia,
the Elura Lead Zinc Deposit in New South Wales and Sandy Flat Redbank Copper Project.
Ian Levy Chief Executive Officer
Mr Levy is a well-known mining geologist and mineral economist with over 25 years
industry experience in mining production companies including WMC, Pancontinental and
Gympie Gold. Mr Levy also contributed to the highly successful Kundana gold mine of
similar design and structure to Allegiance's Viking Mine.
Operating Performance
AGM has an enviable track record of being able to raise funding for its projects relatively
easily with capital raisings often fully or even oversubscribed. During the 6 months to 30
June 2005 the company raised $6.3m via a share placement at 11.6c and $2.14m via a
Shareholder Purchase Plan to facilitate a feasibility study and preconstruction work. A
further $7.2m was raised by Allegiance Mining in December ’05 through an on market
placement at 15c. These funds are currently being used to support exploration drilling on
the Burbank project, underground drilling to extend Avebury Mine, the improvement of
roads, and connection of the mine to grid power.
Recent resource estimates indicate a resource of 7.7Mt @ 1.23%Ni for 650m with a
further 3kms showing promising exploration potential.
Growth/Value Story
AGM is an exploration company on the verge of becoming an operational mine – current
schedules show first production starting in late 2006. A feasibility study based on
production of 5,700tpa has been completed and proven the mine to be economically
viable. Management has indicated a high likelihood that the mine will be able to reach
capacity at closer to 10,000tpa as the resource base expands. Key share price drivers
include, AGM moving successfully to production and confirmation of a higher than
expected output. Also noteworthy is that the ore to be mined is primarily co****-grained
pentlandite, the structure of which allows for simple low cost mining and treatment. The
very high-grade concentrates that can be extracted from this structure are expected to
set a new global benchmark with concentration values exceeding 20%.
A shift in expectations toward higher nickel prices is also starting to emerg

SEC
08-03-2006, 07:40 PM
I sort of regret buying MCR ahead of IGO at the start of the year. MCR has gone nowhere and IGO up 25%. Right metal, wrong company. MCR looks likely to reap $15.1M from options conversion (up from $13.2M) now that Skafell has bid $1.35 for TYC, but it's been ignored by the market.

SEC

wns
08-03-2006, 09:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

I sort of regret buying MCR ahead of IGO at the start of the year. MCR has gone nowhere and IGO up 25%. Right metal, wrong company. MCR looks likely to reap $15.1M from options conversion (up from $13.2M) now that Skafell has bid $1.35 for TYC, but it's been ignored by the market.

SEC


It must be the wns factor SEC! [:p] Namely that I bought some!

So if they made another $10m npat for the second half from core business and we add in $10.57m for the options ($15.1m x 0.7), that would make npat of $30.55m or EPS of 15.7c based on 194.7m shares. On a PE of 6 that would put the share price at 94c which is 40% higher than today's close at 67c.

At a quick glance a while back I concluded that MCR and IGO are the best of the nickel companies, in terms of profitability.

tricha
07-04-2006, 06:29 AM
Well what can you say, what ever stock you had here, you could not lose.

With the Nickel price racing above $23,000 a ton OZ, now the market is calling a shortfall of nickel for 2006, wow, it's on fire, LME starting to retreat at a quicker pace.

MCR still being the dog of the field [^], in price only, but I ain't complaining:). Reckoning due in a couple of weeks, my bet Mincor,s profit for the quarter will be around 10 million, as much as the 1st half profit.

What they do with the 16 million cash from TYC, who knows, just icing on the cake.[:p]

Cheers [B)][}:)]

nelehdine
07-04-2006, 09:01 AM
Hi SEC, I looked at MCR vs IGO last Monday .... chose IGO and bgt at 194.5 , closed at 237 yesterday. Prefered management and also they have a very juicy 30% free carried stake in a gold JV with AngloAshanti which might be huge over the next 5 years. Some low nickel hedges roll off this month and the new ones ( approx 35% of monthly production ) kick in at A$18,000t which should give P&L a healthy boost. Fundamentally nickel looks a great place to be over the next few years. IGO provide the best exposue on the Aussie market IMHO

JBmurc
07-04-2006, 09:47 AM
IMO MCR will outperform IGO in the short term ;)
plus give a better divi-
AGM- also looks good to outperform in the sector


come may we will see who,s right;)

tricha
27-05-2006, 01:59 PM
Have u got some nickel[?][?][?] $30,000 a ton OZ and rising.

Nickel rises $900 as strike looms

Nickel is used to make stainless steel
The price of nickel has shot up by $900, hitting $22,900 a tonne, on news that union members of Canadian mining firm Inco could strike.
The increase amounts to a 4% rise on Thursday's close.

The United Steelworkers union said contract talk at the firm's Sudbury operations had come to a standstill.

Workers have until 31 May to reach an agreement, but the union must reach an agreement by midnight on Friday to give members time to vote on a new contract.

Ready to strike

"We have less than 24 hours to go and we are nowhere near a collective agreement," said Wayne Fraser, a representative with the United Steelworkers union.

We have notified our members that they ought to be getting ready for a strike

Wayne Fraser, United Steelworkers

The current three-year contract comes to an end on 31 May.

"We have notified our members that they ought to be getting ready for a strike," Mr Fraser said.

The union represents about 3,100 workers at Inco's Sudbury operations.

The strike comes amid moves to consolidate the industry.

Inco has been in the running to acquire Canada's Falconbridge but Swiss mining group Xstrata recently entered the race, offering a higher bid.

Supplies of nickel, which is used in the production of stainless steel, have become increasingly tight.

Inventories of nickel on the London Metal Exchange hit their lowest level since October 2005 on Friday, falling 246 tonnes to 18,432 tonnes.

kline
27-05-2006, 04:11 PM
I have recently found a junior Ni explorer(Metallica minerals-MLM)which has pretty good financial support from Kagara Zn and also from an US Capital Fund.
Its main project is a Heap Leach Nickel exploration(still in the testing phase)but they said this exploration Ni laterite Inferred Resource is approx 161,ooo t of contained Ni metal
At the current Ni price, once thy've got the production going, it will be, in my opinion, at least a 3-4 bagger.
However, the market's been so flimsy lately, that the speculative stocks like this one, don't stand much ground.
...but I still think that's worth the risk...current price 25c and the US fund got in at 25c too
Any opinions on this one...?

tricha
28-05-2006, 09:53 PM
Well it's like this Kline - but I still think that's worth the risk...current price 25c and the US fund got in at 25c too

You answered your own qustion - I still think that's worth the risk.

And who knows, you could be onto a winner [:p]

Myself personally, I've got enough risk, although I do not see Mincor as a risk, except as far the nickel price is concerned.

No debt, money in the bank, huge cash flow, top management, excellent dividend and still relatively cheap.
IGO, JBM basically the same, whereas SMY, WSA, BRW, AGM, FXR are higher risk.

Cheers not so [B)][}:)]

Dazza
28-05-2006, 10:29 PM
so peeps IGO or MCR?

JBM is way bigger man :P

IGO if iron is good could be $5 a share

MCR mine life is going to die soon, r they exploring at the moment?

tricha
29-05-2006, 01:16 PM
Hi Dazza

Mincor
You must be reading a different book to me regarding MCR's mine life, if u would like to read the last presentation from MCR, u might pick up their existing mines(except Wannaway), have ore extensions open in every which way direction.
Also high chance of huge extension to Carnilya Hill, where drilling is underway at the moment.
Actually expecting a 10,000 ton reserve upgrade soon.

Independence Group
As far as IGO goes, yes $5 a share is possible, especially with their gold tenants finding excellent gold. Iron ore, bit of a side issue, I do not think they are really interested in it, might be a bonus though.

And yes they hold huge Nickel extensions which are being drilled and quantifed right now.

A better day for all Nickel shares today, let that strike rumble!

Dazza
30-05-2006, 04:36 PM
well i brought FXROA instead today

its risen 100% since last week's dramatic fall.

or 50% for fpos.

i know im a bit late, but i tink this one will shore up some good stuff up to first quarter next year.

Sid
31-05-2006, 07:48 PM
[quote]Originally posted by tricha
[
Independence Group
As far as IGO goes, yes $5 a share is possible, especially with their gold tenants finding excellent gold. Iron ore, bit of a side issue, I do not think they are really interested in it, might be a bonus though.
And yes they hold huge Nickel extensions which are being drilled and quantifed right now. [quote]

Hi Tricha - see below, we should know more about iron ore within the next month.



=DJ INTERVIEW: Australia's Independence Grp Targets Iron Ore

By Stephen Bell
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

PERTH (Dow Jones)-Australian nickel miner Independence Group NL (IGO.AU) said Tuesday
that it hopes to diversify into the booming iron ore sector if a current exploration
program in Western Australia's Pilbara region proves successful.
Independence managing director Chris Bonwick told Dow Jones Newswires that drilling has
begun over a large iron ore target on the company's 80%-owned Goldsworthy project.
"We started over the weekend," Bonwick said in an interview, adding that
assay results should be available in two to three weeks.
Perth-based Independence joins a growing band of small Australian companies trying to
develop an iron ore business, lured by high prices for the steel-making commodity.
Earlier this month Asia's two biggest suppliers, BHP Billiton (BHP) and Rio Tinto
Plc. (RTP) unveiled a 19% increase for annual contract iron ore prices with several
non-Chinese steel mills.
China has so far resisted the latest price increase, which follows a 71.5% hike last
year that riled Beijing officials. Analysts believe that China will eventually fall into
line with other mills in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
Independence is testing whether its Goldsworthy project contains hematite, a type of
high grade iron ore that is appealing to steelmakers. "It is possible that it could
be hematite that was not found before because it is under cover," Bonwick said.
Goldsworthy is only 15 kilometers from BHP's Yarrie rail line and roughly 80 to 90
kilometers from Port Hedland, Bonwick said. BHP has nearly exhausted reserves at its
Yarrie mine and may be looking for new sources of ore, Bonwick said.
Goldsworthy is Independence's second diversification project outside its core
Long-Victor nickel mine in Western Australia that produces around 9,000 metric tons per
year.
The company also owns 30% of the Tropicana gold project, east of Kalgoorlie in Western
Australia, where South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti is expected to spend around A$11
million this year on drilling out an initial resource estimate.
Several other small Western Australian miners are also seeking to diversify in an
effort to capture high prices for a wide range of commodities such as nickel, gold, iron
ore, copper, zinc and uranium.
Manganese miner Consolidated Minerals (CSM.AU) is moving into nickel and iron ore,
while nickel producer Mincor Resources (MCR.AU) recently unveiled expansion plans in
copper, gold and tungsten.
In early afternoon trade, Independence shares are up 2.7% at A$3.00, valuing the
company at about A$328 million. The stock hit a record high of A$3.61 earlier this month.

-By Stephen Bell, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-8-9245-6408; sgbell@bigpond.com
-Edited by Ian Pemberton

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 30, 2006 00:28 ET (04:28 GMT)
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Tuesday 30 May 2006 14:28:32:980 AEST

tricha
01-06-2006, 12:09 AM
Hi Sid

U R right!

Iron ore, bit of a side issue, I do not think they are really interested in it, might be a bonus though.

Still a bonus option, BHP, if ok will probably mine it.Have what it takes.

Cheers not so [B)][}:)]

JBmurc
06-06-2006, 07:22 PM
check AGM out - 26c an absolute bargin ,They now have 5 drill rigs going and are expecting some good drill results shortly
Share Pur plan has now funded this soon to be producer

remember AGM is valued at 43c with a 5.25 nickel price [?]

-this time next year 90c- $1.20c as long as the nickel price dosen,t tank;)

tricha
07-06-2006, 11:23 PM
Well JBmurc hopefully nickel will stay up, then AGM will be a winner. you will be a winner, I will be a winner and everyone else who has nickel stocks.

Personally I'm remaining with Mincor, which hung in there against the rest today.

Why, Mincor is money in the bag, I'll be disapointed if they do not pay out 5 cents a share dividend at years end.(They will have 40 million tucked away in the bank)

Cheers not so [B)][}:)]

Commodity Strategists: Nickel to Rise on Demand, Goldman Says
June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel prices will rise in 2007 and 2008 as demand, led by increased production of stainless steel in China, outpaces supply, Goldman Sachs said.

Nickel prices may average $7.42 a pound this year, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty. analysts Malcolm Southwood, Paul Gray and Marc Bonter said in a report yesterday. Forecasts for next year and 2008 were raised to $7.30 and $8.10. Previous forecasts were not given, and the report didn't specify if the forecasts were for the spot market or three-month futures prices.

Surging demand from consumers and investors amid falling stockpiles and supply disruptions has spurred a three-year rally in the prices of many commodities. Nickel for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange has risen 53 percent this year, reaching a record $23,050 a metric ton on May 26, equivalent to $10.46 a pound. Prices have since slipped 11 percent to $20,625 at 9:35 a.m. London time today.

``We now envisage considerably stronger nickel market fundamentals in 2007 and 2008 than we had previously forecast,'' Southwood, Gray and Bonter said. Nickel, as well as copper and zinc, are ``expected to experience very tight, or tightening, fundamentals over at least the next two years.''

Nickel is added to steel to make it rust-proof. China's stainless steel production will climb 32 percent to 4.4 million tons this year, and 33 percent next year, Southwood and colleagues said. Output will increase by a further 23 percent in 2008, 20 percent in 2009 and 16 percent in 2010, they said.

At the same time, nickel supplies will be tight, mainly because Inco Ltd.'s Goro project in New Caledonia and BHP Billiton's Ravensthorpe project in Australia would begin production later than expected, the analysts forecast.

Goro, Ravensthorpe

The first output from Goro may be in the fourth quarter of 2007, while Ravensthorpe will begin production in the second half of 2008, with ``shallow ramp-up profiles for both projects,'' the report said.

Still, nickel prices may stabilize in the second half of this year as companies run down inventories of both nickel and stainless steel, the three analysts forecast.

Rapid growth in Chinese stainless steel production could also push nickel prices lower in the coming months as other countries would produce less stainless steel, they said.

Nickel may average ``just'' $6.40 a pound in the fourth quarter this year, the report said. Three-month nickel futures prices on the LME averaged $5.78 a pound during the fourth- quarter last year, according to Bloomberg data.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Meeyoung Song in Seoul at msong2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 7, 2006 04:39 EDT

tricha
15-06-2006, 07:48 PM
It all looks great for Nickel, so it should all look great, for any nickel associated company.The prize figure is this one, LME Nickel 15,978 -774, great down another 774 tons.

:):)

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 38 hrs. 25 mins.
change since 19:00 London Time
Price: US$/lb


Copper ¬ Jun 15, 04:28
Bid/Ask 3.0168 - 3.0350
Change +0.0816 +2.78%
Low/High 2.9125 - 3.0713
Charts

Nickel ¬ Jun 15, 04:22
Bid/Ask 8.1042 - 8.1496
Change +0.0907 +1.13%
Low/High 7.9228 - 8.2630
Charts

Aluminum ¬ Jun 15, 04:30
Bid/Ask 1.1464 - 1.1487
Change +0.0168 +1.49%
Low/High 1.1260 - 1.1623
Charts

Zinc ¬ Jun 15, 04:11
Bid/Ask 1.3532 - 1.3646
Change +0.0136 +1.02%
Low/High 1.3328 - 1.3736
Charts

Lead ¬ Jun 15, 03:33
Bid/Ask 0.4399 - 0.4445
Change +0.0068 +1.57%
Low/High 0.4331 - 0.4445
Charts

Uranium ¬ June 5, 2006
Ux U308 price: 44.00
Change from
previous week +1.00



London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks(Jun 14)
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 767,850 -2900
Copper 104,550 -950
Nickel 15,978 -774
Lead 113,325 -75
Zinc 232,875 -1725

tricha
17-06-2006, 12:11 AM
Have you got a nickel, worth more than a dime!

If you have a look at a presentation from AGM recently, it shows the consumption rate of stainless steel per person of a few nations.

It's a bit like oil, at the moment China and India consume peanuts, it's a scary thought, if they catch up in ten years time!

The companies on this topic who are producing, are licienced to produce money at the moment.[8D]


Nickel ¬ Jun 16, 08:24
Bid/Ask 8.7621 - 8.8075
Change +0.5788 +7.07%
Low/High 8.1833 - 8.8379

tricha
23-06-2006, 12:59 AM
Well folks, relate this to JBM, IGO, SMY, MCR and a little too FXR as far as nickel goes. The producing ones all licenced to print money this quarter!
Oh, we can only hope that they run out of nickel, the LME that is

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks(Jun 21)
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 765,000 -2300
Copper 98,575 -450
Nickel 13,872 -1236



UPDATE 1-UPDATE 1-Inco raises second-quarter outlook
Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:40am ET
Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+]

(Adds details. In U.S. dollars)

TORONTO, June 22 (Reuters) - Inco Ltd. (N.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) raised its profit forecast for the second quarter on Thursday, citing strong nickel prices and lower than expected costs.

The company, which is the target of hostile takeover bid from rival Teck Cominco Ltd (TEKb.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), said its adjusted diluted net earnings for the second quarter of 2006 will be about $1.70 to $1.75 a share, 60 percent above its profit posted in the corresponding period a year before.

Inco, which is trying to take over fellow nickel miner Falconbridge Ltd. (FAL.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) in a friendly deal, said it expects to meet or exceed the guidance it provided in April for second-quarter production of nickel, copper and platinum group metals.



The company expects to produce 295 to 300 million pounds of nickel in the second half of 2006, compared with 275 to 280 million pounds in the first half of 2006.

Using quarter-to-date per pound prices of $9.01 for nickel, Inco's nickel unit cash cost of sales after by-product credits for the second quarter are forecast to be $1.90 to $1.95 per pound, about 25 percent below the April guidance of $2.50 to $2.55 per pound, due largely to higher prices for by-products.

The miner also raised its guidance on nickel production for the full year by 10 million pounds to 575 million pounds.

($1=$1.11 Canadian)

tricha
23-06-2006, 09:59 PM
May it continue!
Nickel market in 6,000 tons surplus in Jan-Apr 06 – WBMS
Source: Dow Jones



See also
Nickel Board
Nickel CatalogThe nickel market recorded a small deficit of 6,000 metric tons in the first four months of 2006, with reported stocks some 9,000 tons lower, according to data released Thursday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, or WBMS.

Mine production rose by 1.2% to 426,000 tons, with increased Canadian output levels accounting for most of the change.

Refined nickel production rose by 3.6% to 447,000 tons, with small increases in Russian and Canadian output and the reemergence of the Philippines as a producer accounting for most of the rise, WBMS said.

In April, world nickel production was 114,100 tons and demand totaled 120,900 tons.

JBmurc
28-06-2006, 04:45 PM
AGM up %17 today

tax loss selling nearly over ,alot of major buyers looking at getting a share, bodes well for a massive year ahead for AGM
year ahead AGM %100-%200 MCR %30-%50 ;)


JBMURC-holds AGM-22.5 MCR-66.5

JBmurc
28-06-2006, 05:15 PM
Make that:D 28c up %21 go AGM

tricha
30-06-2006, 01:15 AM
Should be a great day for nickel producers tomorrow, Friday.

I'm ramping, yes, bingo $30,000 a ton OZ, Bingo

Ding, Ding, Ding licienced to print money. Let's all hope it continues and the LME goes to zero.

Nickel ¬ Jun 29, 08:40
Bid/Ask 10.0040 - 10.0720
Change +0.3402 +3.52%
Low/High 9.6411 - 10.0720


Warehouse Stocks(Jun 28)
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 763,300 +1325
Copper 93,000 -50
Nickel 10,350 -792
Lead 113,300 -175
Zinc 221,000 -1925

David Hardman
30-06-2006, 05:48 AM
Tricha

Yup. The stars are aligning for Nickel

Here is a good site for following Nickel

http://www.estainlesssteel.com/stainless-steel-news.shtml

Hold IGO and MCR

tricha
04-07-2006, 08:52 PM
Thanks for that nickel web address David Hardman, I saved it as a favoutite. Yep. The stars are certainly aligning for the Nickel producers.

Nickel ¬ Jul 04, 05:36
Bid/Ask 10.4878 - 10.5332
Change +0.2722 +2.66%
Low/High 10.1930 - 10.5785

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks(Jul 03)
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 773,850 +12950
Copper 93,500 -75
Nickel 9,990 -432
Lead 111,675 +300
Zinc 214,925 -2225

David Hardman
05-07-2006, 05:37 PM
Tricha

Sorry for such a newbee question here.

In reality what does the "London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks" actually mean?

I appreciate that warehouse stocks going down is a good thing for nickel miners and going up is a bad thing... but what does it actually mean? What happens when it reaches zero? Does this mean there is no nickel in the world for sale (I doubt it)

I doubt the LME is holding "physical" stock of the metals they trade.

tricha
05-07-2006, 11:53 PM
Good question David Hardman

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks(Jul 04) London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks(Jul 04) In reality what does the "London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks" actually mean?

I am only assuming, but if the LME read zero, then there would be no nickel in stock for sale.
In all probablity, it would never reach zero, but it could read $100,000 OZ a ton if it got to within 1000 tons in stock.

And I wouldn't mind it a bit, if I held any of the above stocks and a few others.

Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 771,875 -1975
Copper 93,400 -100
Nickel 9,402 -588
Lead 110,725 -950
Zinc 213,200 -1725

100 tons of LME nickel, bring it on. Dreams are free!

Regards not so [B)][}:)]

whiteheron
06-07-2006, 09:20 AM
9402 tonnes of nickel !!!!!!!!!
That is a piddle in the ocean folks

LME obviously does not record all nickel stocks held worldwide, but their holding is the best guide to the overall state of affairs which must be critical, yes CRITICAL

Low cost nickel producers are about to make HEAPS !!!!!

tricha
08-07-2006, 01:00 PM
$32,000 a ton OZ, oh yeah! Commodities

Nickel Prices Rise for Eighth Straight Session After Inventories Dwindle

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel prices in London rose for the eighth session in a row as inventories of the metal used to make stainless steel dwindled to the lowest since September.

Stockpiles of nickel monitored by the London Metal Exchange have declined for five consecutive months. They fell 2.1 percent today to 9,378 metric tons. Global stainless-steel production rose 12 percent in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, the International Stainless Steel Forum said yesterday.

Nickel is ``in the happy position of seeing the stainless- steel industry growing rapidly,'' said Tony Warwick-Ching, an analyst at CRU International, a London-based consulting company. ``It looks pretty robust.''

Nickel for delivery in three months surged $450, or 1.9 percent, to $24,000 a ton at 4:16 p.m. on the LME. Prices earlier reached $24,100 a ton, the highest since at least 1987. The metal climbed 19 percent in the previous seven sessions and is up 65 percent from a year ago.

Inco Ltd., the world's second-biggest nickel producer, said the opening of its Goro mine on the Pacific Island of New Caledonia probably will be delayed beyond the target of the 2007 fourth quarter.

Stainless-steel makers and other nickel consumers are relying on projects such as Goro to increase supplies. Nickel consumption will exceed production by 15,000 metric tons in 2006, Credit Suisse said in a report last month. That's a quarter of Goro's projected annual output

tricha
11-07-2006, 09:35 AM
Make that $33,000 a ton, should be a good day all round for these stocks today.

Mon Jul 10, 12:44 PM ET

LONDON (AFP) - The price of nickel reached a pinnacle of 24,500 dollars per tonne during trading -- the highest point since the base metal was first listed in 1979.

ADVERTISEMENT

Since last Wednesday, the base metal has been breaking records on a daily basis, on the back of soaring investment fund demand and falling global stocks.

On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month nickel prices stood at 24,350 dollars per tonne at around 1400 GMT on Monday.

"The downtrend in LME nickel stocks continues to provide firm support to prices," said Barclays Capital analyst Ingrid Sternby.

The price of nickel, a metal used to help prevent corrosion, has surged by almost 82 percent since the start of 2006 -- rising in line with other metals amid tight supplies and keen demand.

tricha
11-07-2006, 10:25 PM
This is getting crazy! $34,000 a ton at the moment.

Well, everyday gets better, is going to be interesting reporting coming up for all nickel producers.



Nickel ¬ Jul 11, 07:10
Bid/Ask 11.5953 - 11.6407
Change +0.2495 +2.20%
Low/High 11.3005 - 11.7087

Nickel Advances in London for a 10th Day as Stockpiles Shrink
July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel gained for a 10th consecutive day in London as stockpiles of the metal that's mostly used to make stainless steel dropped.

Inventories of nickel monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell 486 metric tons, or 5.5 percent, to 8,418 tons today. Stocks have declined 76 percent this year to the lowest since Aug. 23. Credit Suisse Group said last month in a report that nickel demand in 2006 will beat production by 15,000 tons.

``The fundamentals are pretty good, certainly for nickel,'' said Robin Bhar, a London-based analyst at UBS Ltd. ``There's fear that the market doesn't have enough stocks.''

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME rose $600, or 2.4 percent, to $25,250 a ton as of 11:13 a.m. local time, the highest since at least 1987. The metal has gained 87 percent this year.

Nickel prices gained as strengthening demand, led by surging production of stainless steel in China, exceeds supply, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., which advises the Chinese government on industry policies, said July 7.

Chinese stainless steel production will rise more than 25 percent to 4.7 million tons this year, boosting demand for nickel by 35,000 tons, or half the projected increase in global demand, Antaike analyst Xu Aidong said in an interview. Global nickel use may rise to 1.33 million tons this year from 1.26 million tons last year, she said.

JBmurc
12-07-2006, 10:47 AM
-another good day for MCR AGM ;)2006 the year of the nickel biggest bullrun.

tricha
12-07-2006, 08:21 PM
Dam, not quite $36,000 OZ a ton quite yet, $35,750.

Buoyant on stocks, supply concern, oil hike: LME
Source: Dow Jones


See also
Base Metals Board
Base Metals CatalogLondon Metal Exchange prices were buoyant Tuesday, responding to supply concerns, falling stocks and rising oil prices boosting sentiment across commodity markets, traders and analysts said.

Strongest performer was LME three-month nickel, breaching the $25,000 a-metric-ton level for the first time and setting an all-time high of $25,700/ton, up 4.2% on the Monday PM kerb.

LME nickel stocks have been steadily declining since the start of the year from over 30,000 tons to 8,418 tons, down 486 tons on the day. Cancelled warrants, denoting material due to leave the warehouse soon, have risen to 50.23%, up from 46.23%, leaving nickel stocks close to critical levels.

The cash-to-three-month spread flared out to $2,450, curtailing short selling, a trader said.

While prices are seen as overblown and fueling substitution of other materials for nickel, its rally could extend further before consolidating, the trader said.

whiteheron
12-07-2006, 09:10 PM
Yes, I dont think that we can expect nickel prices to stay at these levels, but even if they drop back by say 35 % the low cost producers like MCR will still be laughing all the way to the bank

tricha
12-07-2006, 11:16 PM
Dam, was a bit quick on it tonight, $36,000 OZ a ton, well now $36,600

Nickel ¬ Jul 12, 08:04
Bid/Ask 12.5494 - 12.5721
Change +0.4082 +3.36%
Low/High 12.1412 - 12.5721

Wow, what is the market going to do tomorrow with all these nickel stocks.

tricha
13-07-2006, 10:55 PM
High nickel price may hurt demand, miners' shares
Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:04am ET
Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+] SYDNEY, July 13 (Reuters) - High-flying nickel prices -- up 84 percent this year -- may be headed for a crash, taking the share prices of producers down in the process, research group Stock Resource said on Thursday.

Nickel traded on the London Metal Exchange <MNI3> has soared on bets by investors that supplies of the metal, whose widest use is as an alloy in stainless steel used to make beer kegs, will fall short of demand over the the next year or two.

But a view is emerging that high prices will turn some users in China and elsewhere away from nickel and other industrial metals, driving prices down.

"The spot nickel price is currently US$12.61/lb, ($27,805/tonne) a price we believe is unsustainable and will lead to demand destruction," Stock Resources said in a client report.


"While the price increase is driven by the market's perception of a higher-than-forecast nickel deficit for 2006 and the entry of speculators, the price is likely to fall as a reality check emerges over what prices the industry can really bear," it said.

"This is likely to drag down all nickel stocks irrespective of individual company merits," it said.

Driven by speculative buying first by hedge funds and now pension funds, which use commodities such as metals to diversify their portfolios, prices of nickel, copper and other metals have reached record highs this year.

But industrial buyers were now looking for ways to cut down their use of these expensive metals, analysts have said.

"We are ... well into the area where the use of metals as a financial instrument is doing real damage to the industries who use and produce these metals," David Humphreys, chief economist at Russian mining giant Norilsk, told a Reuters forum on the industry. However, others say demand for nickel is likely to remain strong, with consumption in fast-industrialising China, already lapping up much of the world's nickel, seen growing by 19 percent a year for at least the rest of the decade.

Nickel inventories held by the London Metal Exchange have dwindled to 8,244 tonnes, representing less than three days of global consumption.

Several big mining projects, including Inco Ltd. (N.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) of Canada's Goro mine and Falconbridge Ltd.'s (FAL.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) Koniambo mine, both in nickel-rich New Caledonia, are still under development.

Consumption of nickel should rise 4 percent to 1.39 million tonnes this year, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.


Australia mines about 200,000 tonnes of nickel annually, mostly from outback lodes. Diversified miner BHP Billiton Ltd./Plc. (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research)(BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) is the country's biggest supplier and is spending about $1.8 billion digging a new mine in far western Australia yielding 50,000 tonnes a year.

Ahead of a retreating nickel price, Stock Research said it would "cash in its remaining chips" in Australian nickel miner Mincor Resources N.L. (MCR.AX: Quote, Profile, Research), whose stock is up 84 percent this year to A$1.18 in tandem with nickel prices.

Fellow mid-sized miner Jubilee Mining Ltd. (JBM.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) is up 20 percent this year to A$9.00, while Sally Malay Mining Ltd.'s (SMY.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) shares have almost doubled to A$1.37. ($1=A$1.33)

nelehdine
14-07-2006, 10:36 AM
What a load of rubbish ... I'm sure when oil was at $10 and then moved to $20 people were saying ... "electric cars will replace petrol driven vehicles , people won't put up with this".Now we're at $75 and demand is still increasing !! Nickel will probably see $20lb before it sees $8 again ... keep long all Ni stocks for the foreseeable future

SEC
14-07-2006, 02:56 PM
quote:Originally posted by tricha



Ahead of a retreating nickel price, Stock Research said it would "cash in its remaining chips" in Australian nickel miner Mincor Resources N.L. (MCR.AX: Quote, Profile, Research), whose stock is up 84 percent this year to A$1.18 in tandem with nickel prices.



Read "Stock Research has already cashed in its remaining chips in Mincor". They're just talking their book, like any typical broker.

Nel, I very much doubt Ni will reach $20/lb before reaching $8/lb. However if Ni settles medium/long term around $8 the nickel minors need some serious re-rating upwards because analyst estimates are based on $6/lb for 07 and long term $5/lb!

SEC

whiteheron
14-07-2006, 05:01 PM
My impression is that brokers invariably underestimate projected prices for metals because

---they dont want to be caught out with an overestimation

--- they dont realise that the world has changed signifantly in many ways resulting in ongoing higher metal prices, maybe not as high as we have at present but substantially higher than an extrapolation of past prices

tricha
15-07-2006, 11:47 AM
Wow $38,000 a ton OZ and rising, this is Astrospace stuff!

Nickel ¬ Jul 14, 13:40
Bid/Ask 12.7459 - 12.9727
Change +0.5746 +4.72%
Low/High 12.0807 - 13.1542

$20 a ilb for Nickel is looking extremely possible. The way this is plunging it could be on the cards!




London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks(Jul 14)
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 743,900 -650
Copper 94,100 +525
Nickel 6,582 -1092
Lead 108,800 +100
Zinc 200,575 -1250

All I can say is, IGO, MCR, JBM, SMY, FXR and a few others are liciened to print money at the moment.

AGM and WSA must be frothing at the mouth, have all this nickel but can't produce it. [xx(]

How long, this shortage will last, is any ones guess [?]

And so is what will happen on Monday to the price of these stocks [?]

Cheers form the not so quite [B)][}:)]

SEC
15-07-2006, 04:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by tricha

$20 a ilb for Nickel is looking extremely possible. The way this is plunging it could be on the cards!


Naah, would love to see it happen, but highly unlikely. Although the LME warehoused nickel stocks can barely fill one of their back offices now, don't forget buyers can source their nickel from other than the LME. Read the latest ABARE commodities report to put the LME stockpile in perspective.

SEC

David Hardman
16-07-2006, 04:22 PM
Thanks for the heads up on the Abare Report Sec.

Very interesting read

http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/AC_june_2006/htm/nickel.htm

tricha
16-07-2006, 10:57 PM
Have u got your nickel, worth more than a dime!

Yes a good report Sec, all views appreciated!

I read an articule whereby the top CEO's of major nickel producing companies have in the past, been shocking, at picking the devils metal. Bacially no one can predict it.

I just noticed today, that Toyota has announced the Lexus with a hybrid.

I wonder how many pounds of nickel goes into the average hybrid, battey [?][?]

I wonder what the growth rate of hybrids are [?][?], saw Toyota announce a new factory in China just for hybrid cars, recently.

Nucleur power for electricity and batteries for cars, todays energy and polution solver.[:p]

Batteries = nickel and lots of it [:p]

Hopefully hybrid batteries made of nickel will keep stockpiles down and the price up.

Cheers not so [B)][}:)]

Moonshine
17-07-2006, 12:47 AM
If you saw 60 minutes tonight, the head of Niagara Mines featured quite extensively on the Nickel portion of the "Boomtime" story.

Niagara bought the old Poseidon Nickel mine and are looking to re-establish it.

Currently at around 37c... could be a good entry for a future producer.

tricha
17-07-2006, 08:40 PM
Good articule in the latest Mining Cronicle, about Niagara as well and yes could be a go.

Finding strong nickel at debt up to 17%

tricha
17-07-2006, 08:43 PM
Hybrid Mercedes on the way
Heres a question [?][?][?], how much nickel in used in the average Hybrid car.
Just imagine a million new cars a year with a hybrid battery.
A million x [?]ilbs = ...........Lots

Monday July 17, 2006


Mercedes plans to market its first hybrid car in 2008.

"We're well on track and will bring a competitive concept to the market at the start of 2008," company research chief Thomas Weber says.

Hybrids combine an electric motor and batteries with petrol or diesel engines to boost fuel economy and cut emissions.

tricha
19-07-2006, 09:37 AM
Nickel Plunges Most in 5 Weeks After Stockpiles Gain (Correct)
(Corrects dropped letter in `plunges' in headline.)

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel plunged the most in five weeks after a jump in stockpiles eased concern about tight supplies that had sent prices this week to their highest level in at least 19 years.

Inventory of the metal monitored by the London Metal Exchange jumped 456 tons, or 7.1 percent, to 6,918 tons, the biggest one-day supply gain since Dec. 17. Rising demand for the metal, used in stainless steel, has reduced LME stockpiles by 80 percent in the past year and boosted prices by 71 percent.

``A lot of the buying of nickel has been done on the premise that the world is running out,'' said Robin Bhar, an analyst at UBS Ltd. in London. ``This increase in inventory does highlight the fact that there's more of the metal around than in the LME.''

Nickel for delivery in three months dropped $1,575, or 6.1 percent, to $24,175 a metric ton at 6:34 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, after reaching $23,900, the lowest since July 11. The decline was the biggest since June 13. Nickel reached $26,900 yesterday, the highest since at least 1987.

Some analysts say that supplies remain tight. Mine output will fall short of demand by about 25,000 tons in the second half of this year, said James Lennon, director of research for Macquarie Bank in London.

``The market will remain under pressure,'' Lennon said.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Sarah Tolkoff in Chicago at stolkoff@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 18, 2006 13:56 EDT

tricha
21-07-2006, 09:33 PM
Two sides to every story, I'm sticking to the deficit story, at the moment, should be great profit announcements coming from IGO, MCR, JBM.

Inco sees world nickel deficit of 30,000 mt in 2006Source: Platts



See also
Nickel Board
Nickel CatalogCanadian nickel producer Inco is predicting a world nickel deficit of 30,000 mt for 2006 with no significant new production coming on stream this year.

Speaking at the company's second-quarter earnings conference call Tuesday, Peter Goudie, executive vice-president of marketing at Inco, said the deficit could not get much larger "as effectively all available nickel will be utilized."

At its second quarter results conference call, Goudie estimated the world nickel deficit at 10,000 mt. And last month, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said that there was a 6,000 mt deficit in the global nickel market in the first four months of this year.

He also said that the drawdown in London Metal Exchange stocks fell by 2,880 mt last week to a level where sotcks, less cancelled warrants fell to 3,318 mt, representing 17 hours of world consumption.
Goudie said that while the normal annual resumption of nickel shipments from the Russian port of Dudinka "may well result in some new nickel coming into the LME inventories in the coming weeks... do not confuse this with a weakening in the market, because it is no such thing. It will be a temporary situation."

He said that beyond this year, there would be low nickel inventories and supply growth would be limited. "therefore, demand growth will be restricted by supply," he added.

"In 2006 we are experiencing the tightest nickel market we have ever seen. This is the result of the lack of new major nickel projects for a number of years... The final two quarters of 2006 will be the most interesting ones that the nickel market has seen."

In response to analysts' questions, Goudie said: "There is not sufficient nickel to meet demand, so we really are in a discovery process to find out what levels of price are required to pull demand [back] in line with available supply." He said that the market appeared to find these levels and then pulled back temporarily before moving up again. "It happened at $17,000 and again at $20,000 and we're seeing it again at about the $26,000-27,000 level and it will pull back." He said that the price had to remain at very high levels to pull demand back to supply.

Earlier, Inco reported record adjusted net earnings of $400 million in Q2 2006, up from $241 million in Q2 2005. It also reported adjusted first-half net earnings of $600 million, up from $483 million a year earlier.

edison
22-07-2006, 12:12 AM
Sometimes I wonder all these decreasing LME stock levels of commodities.

Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to down ramp as I am also long on these resource stocks. I don't think I can downramp global metal prices :)

Of course I know about the growth of China/India and their demand on commodities. Surely there must be a lot of speculators buying Nickel (or any other commodities) big time earlier and waiting for LME stockpile level to go down to zero and then sell back into the market. Or am I just dreaming here?

Disclosure - Long on:
Nickel: IGO
Other Metal: PEM, KZL, CBH, BSG, SBM, OMC
Oil/Gas: AMU, BPT, PSA, TAP

tricha
25-07-2006, 01:18 AM
Dam - Nickel on the way back down, but wait!

It would be fair to say, IGO, MCR, SMY, JBM will have a boomer of a quarter in line with Falconbridge

Edison77 - Stockpile due to increase, due to Russian supplies entering the market, as shipping increases, due to the ice melting, hence waterways unblock.

But as far as I can tell, no one, but no one knows what the price will do.

.

Falconbridge profit more than triples
Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:06am ET
Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+]
MONTREAL, July 24 (Reuters) - Canadian miner Falconbridge Ltd. (FAL.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), the takeover target of Inco Ltd. (N.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) and Xstrata Plc (XTA.L: Quote, Profile, Research), said on Monday its second-quarter profit more than tripled on strong metal prices.

Falconbridge said it earned $728 million, or $1.91 a share, well above a profit of $202 million, or 61 cents a share, in the year-earlier period.

($1=$1.14 Canadian)




ż Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

tricha
28-07-2006, 12:27 AM
July 26, 2006, 1:38PM
Market Spotlight: Nickel


© 2006 The Associated Press

NEW YORK — Dwindling nickel supplies and increasingly strong demand have recently powered the metal's market price to historic heights _ amid a rash of consolidation efforts by the industry's largest producers.

Nickel spiked to a record $29,600 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange earlier this month and has retreated only slightly since. Last year, nickel averaged just $14,738 a ton.

In May, the mean nickel price quoted on the London Metal Exchange climbed to $21,064.52 for the month _ a peak it hadn't seen since 1987, according to Pete Kuck, a physical scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

LME nickel settled at $24,400 a ton on Wednesday.

"Supply hasn't grown fast enough to meet demand," said BMO Capital Markets analyst Victor Lazarovici, who covers base metals and mining for the brokerage. "Merchants and others are using inventories to fill the gap. The market has been getting crazy as a result."

London Metal Exchange nickel stocks, a key measure of the metal that is most readily available to consumers, have shrunk to 5,424 tons _ a rapid depletion of the 36,042 tons on inventory in January.

In a recent conference call, Inco Ltd., the world's No.2 nickel producer, said its own inventory is 3,840 tons below the company's 10-year average for the end of the second quarter. The company is turning away nickel orders from customers.
Peter Goudie, Inco marketing executive vice president, called 2006 "the tightest nickel market we have ever seen."

It is not only the inventories on the LME that are decreasing quickly; we observed a shortage throughout the supply chain," he said during the call. "Consumers do not want to hold nickel inventories at these high prices and this level of price volatility."Nickel is used to make stainless steel, which is in turn used in all sorts of industrial applications including vats for processing dairy products, airplane jet engines and power plant turbines. Production of stainless steel has made a sharp recovery from the fourth quarter last year and is up significantly over the longer term.

Stainless steel production has roughly tripled in 15 years, said Kuck of the USGS. World production grew 26 percent over five years to 24.3 million metric tons in 2005.

"Of course, in places like China where they're growing great guns, their stainless steel production is skyrocketing," Kuck said. "They're stockpiling nickel. But you can't just blame it on China _ it's the whole world."

A spate of merger-and-acquisition activity has also roiled the nickel market recently. Copper miner Phelps Dodge Corp. agreed in June to acquire both Inco and its Canadian rival Falconbridge _ which is also the target of several other large mining companies. Europe's Xstrata plc, which already owns 20 percent of Falconbridge, recently upped its hostile bid for the company to $16.9 billion in cash. Phelps Dodge and Inco's combined bid for Falconbridge amounts to $17.3 billion in cash and stock.

Russia's Norilsk Nickel is the world's largest nickel producer.

Lizard
28-07-2006, 02:40 PM
IGO quarterly looked good to the market Tricha...currently $3.10 :)

I'm not much on resources, but got IGO at $1.20 (and some more in recent sell-down at $2.56). They just seem like such a switched on mining company - though the recent nickel price is certainly a bonus.

nelehdine
28-07-2006, 06:23 PM
Agree Lizard ... this is a QUALITY company, definitely the best and most informative quarterly of all the mining stocks I own. Quality management, quality dirt ( Tropicana could be MASSIVE ) and in the right commodity ... I'm long 10,000 at 198 , ain't selling for the foreseeable ... lots of mileage left in this one.

tricha
28-07-2006, 11:49 PM
Yes lizard and Nelehdine - IGO's quarterly certainly looked good to the market.

And like JBM, SMY, MCR, the next quarter is looking far better, WSA and AGM can only look on with envy and pray the price continues for a few more years.

FXR, what more can u say, they are sitting on one hot area.

BRW, they have a lot of catching up to do, but they do have a good cashflow.


Bring it on, the strike i mean.

Nickel Climbs on Stockpile Drop, Report of Strike at Inco Mine
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel futures climbed the most in two weeks in London after Reuters reported a strike at a mine operated by Inco Ltd., the world's second-biggest nickel producer, fueling concern about declining stockpiles.

Inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell 8.6 percent today to 4,272 metric tons, the lowest since July 1991. Miners at Voisey's Bay, which is due to produce 54,000 tons of nickel contained in concentrate this year, stopped work after the United Steelworkers Union and Inco management failed to agree on a labor contract yesterday, Reuters said.

``At the moment, the market is very sensitive to the news,'' said Roy Carson, a trader at Triland Metals Ltd., one of 11 companies trading on the floor of the London Metal Exchange. The ``latest stock decline obviously caused this buying response.''

Nickel for delivery in three months rose $1,175, or 5 percent, to $24,875 a metric ton as of 10:33 a.m. in London, the most since July 17. The metal has gained 84 percent this year.

Voisey's Bay started in September 2005 and employs about 400 people, according to the mine's Web site. Inco spokesman Steve Mitchell in Toronto said he wasn't able to confirm or deny the report. Company spokesman Bob Carter at Voisey's Bay didn't answer a call from Bloomberg News requesting comment.

Copper headed for its biggest weekly gain in two months, rising $120 to $7,640 a metric ton, amid concern labor disputes and mine repairs may cut supply in Chile, the world's biggest producer of the metal.

Santiago-based Codelco, the world's largest producer of copper, may need as many as three months to repair its largest mine after a rockslide. Workers at BHP Billiton's Escondida mine are due to vote today on whether to strike next month. They are seeking a pay increase 13 percentage points above inflation. Management is offering 1.5 points higher than inflation.

`Far Apart'

Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, is producing 40 percent less metal after miners began arriving later for work, union spokesman Pedro Marin said July 26. BHP denies that. Copper futures have risen 74 percent this year.

At Escondida, ``the two sides are far apart on wages issues, and it probably will come to strikes,'' said Albrecht Gohlke, a fund manager at Hauck & Aufhaeuser Privatbank in Munich. ``This will provide the impetus to drive copper prices higher.''

Among other metals on the LME, lead gained $20 to $1,090 a metric ton, zinc was $60 higher at $3,290, tin rose $25 to $8,375 and aluminum advanced $6 to $2,527.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Katy Watson in London at kwatson@bloomberg.net

tricha
04-08-2006, 12:14 AM
Stainless steel cycle has turned, says Merafe
Source: Mineweb



See also
Stainless Steel Board
Stainless Steel CatalogMerafe Resources, which together with its partner Xstrata is one of the world's largest ferrochrome producers, expects prices to continue to rise as stainless steel enters a bull market. At Merafe's interim results presentation, financial director Stuart Elliot would not be pinned to an exact forecast, but says he does not expect the ferrochrome price to fall below its current $0.75 a pound in the next year and a half.

The current price of roughly R5.20 a pound is comfortably above one analyst's back of the matchbox break-even estimate for Merafe of between R3.50 and R4. Together with Xstrata, Merafe is the lowest-cost ferrochrome producer in South Africa, which is second only to Kazakhstan in terms of costs.

As expected, Merafe posted a loss of R0.0123 for the interim period to June 30 2006. But a 19% increase in the ferrochrome price to $0.756, coupled with a 16% slide in the rand during the third quarter of 2006 should push Merafe into profitability.

One of the reasons Elliot is bullish on ferrochrome is that stainless steel production appears to be on an upward trend. Ferrochrome's main use is in stainless steel, and as such, Merafe's fortunes are pinned to the cyclical market for corrosion-proof metal.

Elliot says that global stainless steel production ended a longer-than-usual bull market in the second half of 2005, resulting in a "steep correction" in prices, but that the bull trend appears to be back, with strong growth forecast to 2008.

"The second quarter of the year has seen a turnaround for the ferrochrome business. Stainless production has increased sharply, as service centres and fabricators returned to the market to replenish inventories and meet growing demand, particularly in Europe," says Merafe in its results commentary.

In the second half of 2006, Merafe's share in the Project Lion joint venture it has with Xstrata will increase to 20.5% of earnings, interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, up from its previous 17.5%.

Project lion is a 360 000 tonne a year facility that will be commissioned in the second half of 2006. "Project Lion is expected to deliver significant cost savings compared to current industry averages, arising from improved efficiencies in energy, ore and reductant consumption. Ramp-up to full production is expected in the first half of 2007 and overall the project remains on budget, despite significant cost inflation for key inputs," says Merafe.

"The increase in the base price of ferrochrome from 63 USCents per pound in the first quarter of 2006 to 75 US Cents per pound in the third quarter of 2006, the weakening of the Rand against the US$, Merafe's share of EBITDA increasing to 20.5% from 1 July 2006 and Project Lion coming on-stream, should result in Merafe posting meaningful profits for the remainder of the financial year," it says.

Merafe features in the portfolios of two of South Africa's most successful money managers, Coronation and Allan Gray. In a recent interview with Mineweb Radio, Allan Gray portfolio manager Arjen Luchtenburg said the asset manager predicted the share to earn 10c a year over time, which made its price of 69c attractive.

The Merafe share price traded R0.02 higher after the results announcement, but later dropped back to the previous day's closing price of R0.65 a share.

sparrow
15-08-2006, 07:01 AM
Who ... what.... to believe? But this article makes more sense to me , rather than the doom merchants predicting a dive in 2007 for nickel, ........unless someone comes up with a nickel substitute..


London nickel flirts with record on firm demand
Mon Aug 14, 2006 3:17 PM GMT



By Nick Trevethan

LONDON (Reuters) - Nickel came within $50 of its recent record high on Monday supported by demand from stainless steel makers who may have underestimated their needs for 2006.

Nickel for delivery in three months rose to $27,250 a tonne in midsession dealing on the London Metal Exchange (LME), versus $26,700 on Friday and last week's record $27,300.

"There is a genuine shortage of material and in this environment prices are likely to go higher," Bache Financial minerals strategist Angus MacMillan said,

He added that $30,000 was the obvious big number target.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see it there in the very near future."

South Korean steel producer POSCO Co. Ltd. on Monday dismissed a Wall Street Journal report that it held a loss-making short position of 10,000 tonnes of nickel on the LME and of an additional 20,000 tonnes in the physical market.

A POSCO official said the company was short by less than 1,000 tonnes on the LME, and denied the company had speculated on falling nickel prices.

Stainless steel production accounts for around two thirds of world nickel use.

"Regarding the 1,000-tonne short position on the LME, if they have to buy it back, then we might see a little more covering and firmer prices," a physical nickel trader said.

"They haven't taken on a physical short position, but they may not have covered their needs fully for this year,"

He said that most stainless steel makers had covered around 80 percent of their predicted 2006 nickel needs on long term contracts, but demand for stainless had picked and with it, nickel.

"...The sort of tonnage referred to may be what they need in order to fulfil orders," he said, and the company had two options -- to try and buy the additional nickel needed or to turn away orders.

Stocks of nickel in LME warehouses were 5,940 tonnes, of which nearly 3,600 tonnes have already been earmarked for delivery. Daily world nickel consumption is around 3,500 tonnes.

In addition to low stocks and strong demand, nickel prices are firm after a strike at Inco, which began shutting down production at the end of July at its 54,000 tonne-per-year, Voisey's Bay nickel mine in Canada.

COPPER GIVES UP GAINS

Copper gave up most of its earlier gains despite tightening supply in the biggest consumer of the metal and as a strike at the world's largest copper mine moved into a second week.

Copper was up $30 at $7,600 as talks resumed at the key Escondida mine in Chile between the union and majority owner BHP Billiton was down $43 at $2,477 and looked vulnerable to technically-driven selling, while zinc gained $10 at $3,280.

tricha
16-08-2006, 11:38 PM
Yes it is looking great Sparrow, just out of curiousity, which nickel stocks do you own.

Wow, $40,000 a ton OZ for nickel right now, got to be some extreme numbers coming out for IGO, MCR, SMY, JBM, and others like Minara.
Bring it on.

AGM and WSA eat your heart out. Will their time come, lets hope so. no one can predict what will be in another year.


Nickel ¬ Aug 16, 09:25
Bid/Ask 13.9215 - 13.9216
Change +0.6048 +4.54%
Low/High 13.2487 - 13.9216

Sid
17-08-2006, 07:35 AM
Nickel Soars, Prompting Metal Exchange to Impose Trading Limits
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel prices climbed to the highest since at least 1987 as stockpiles dwindled, forcing the London Metal Exchange to impose trading restrictions for the first time in a year.

After nickel surpassed $29,000 a metric ton, twice its level at the start of this year, the LME ordered for delivery rules to be suspended because of shortage of the metal. Inventories have plunged 83 percent in the past year.

``We now have a genuine material shortage,'' Simon Heale, chief executive officer of the exchange, said in an e-mailed statement today, explaining the exchange's decision.

The price of nickel, a metal used to make steel rust- resistant, is four times higher than the average of the 1990s because of a surge in demand from China. The high prices have led to a seven-week, $17 billion, battle for Inco Ltd., the world's second largest producer of the metal.

Nickel for three-month delivery advanced $1,645, or 6 percent, to $29,100 a metric ton as of 7:12 p.m. in London. Earlier, the contract gained as much as 6.4 percent, the most since January 2004.

The extra cost, or premium, paid for immediate delivery of the metal compared with delivery in three months more than doubled to $3,600 a ton, the highest in at least 11 years. Nickel stored in warehouses tracked by the LME has dropped to 6,162 tons this year, equal to less than two days of global use.

The LME ordered that holders of so-called short positions, or bets that prices will fall, can borrow nickel at no more than $300 a ton each day. The exchange last intervened in metal trading in August last year after hurricane Katrina left stockpiles of zinc stranded in New Orleans, pushing the metal to an eight-year high.

`Something Going on'

``There's certainly something going on and somebody has got large short positions'' in nickel, said Stephen Briggs, an analyst at Societe Generale, one of the 11 companies trading on the floor of the LME. ``It's a very tight market but the physical nickel market is rarely as tight as the LME market suggests.''

Posco, the world's fourth-largest steelmaker by output, said two days ago it had a short nickel position on the LME of ``less than 1,000 tons.'' The company commented after the Wall Street Journal's Asian edition reported it made wrong-way bets involving 10,000 tons of nickel. Posco has been scrambling to cover the positions and is being forced to roll them forward at ever greater expense, the newspaper said, citing unidentified metal market sources in London. The company said rumors of such a large position were ``groundless.''

Nickel producer Inco has been the focus of a takeover battle since June 26, when Phelps Dodge Corp. first bid for the Toronto-based company. Teck Cominco Ltd. and Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce subsequently made proposals, pushing the offer price to C$19.4 billion ($17.4 billion). Teck today withdrew from the race after failing to sell stock to finance its offer.

sparrow
17-08-2006, 08:53 AM
Tricha wrote

"Yes it is looking great Sparrow, just out of curiousity, which nickel stocks do you own."

Had MCR since early "03, first bought at 28c,then 67c.

Had BRW since late '03.

JBmurc
17-08-2006, 08:54 AM
should be a cracker of a day for my nickel stocks- AGM MCR
is certainly the metal of 06;)

SEC
17-08-2006, 11:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

Since stainless steel producers have been able to put their prices up they have been starting to restock their alloy inputs. Should keep nickel's price around $7+/lb for a while.

SEC


Posted six months ago. To think I was gushing at Ni @ $7/lb. Now it's double that!!!! Never ever thought it would reach $14/lb, was happy for it remaining around $7, that price alone would have re-rated the MCR price from what it was in Feb. The Nico's haven't kept pace with the 100% increase in Ni prices, but will do in due course;).

SEC (MCR IGO)

tricha
17-08-2006, 11:34 PM
Yippee I Aye - Remember this one Sec, bring it on!

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by tricha

$20 a ilb for Nickel is looking extremely possible. The way this is plunging it could be on the cards!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Naah, would love to see it happen, but highly unlikely. Although the LME warehoused nickel stocks can barely fill one of their back offices now, don't forget buyers can source their nickel from other than the LME. Read the latest ABARE commodities report to put the LME stockpile in perspective.

SEC

tricha
17-08-2006, 11:40 PM
You are sure right about a re-rating for nickel stocks Sec.

Nickel Drops After London Metal Exchange Trading Restrictions
Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell for the first session in seven after the London Metal Exchange imposed trading restrictions to ease a shortage of the metal.

The LME, the world's largest metals exchange, yesterday limited the cost at which short-position holders can borrow the metal. The intervention came as plunging stockpiles helped push prices for the metal, which is used in stainless-steel making, to a record. It was the first time the exchange imposed such restriction on nickel since 1988.

``It's very likely that it will destabilize the market and it's very likely that people will stop buying for a while,'' said Gueorgui Pirinski, a stainless steel analyst at metals consulting company CRU in London.

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME dropped $900, or 3.1 percent, to $28,200 a metric ton as of 10:28 a.m. The metal surged to $29,200 a ton yesterday, the highest since at least 1987. It has more than doubled this year.

Stockpiles of nickel tracked by the LME dropped 42 tons, or 0.7 percent, to 6,120 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report. The inventory has plunged 83 percent this year.

Nickel supply this year will lag behind demand by 30,000 tons, Inco Ltd., the world's second-largest nickel producer said in July. Stainless-steel output will grow 8.6 percent to 26.4 million tons, the International Stainless Steel Forum said in June.

``There's a real scarcity'' of nickel, said Friedich Kernstock, who trades industrial and precious metals at Kernco Metal Trading GmbH in Austria. ``When we asked for the material from producers, they said they don't have any spot metal until end-October.''

Copper also dropped in London, falling $100 to $7,600 a ton. Aluminum declined $16 to $2,485, zinc slipped $20 to $$3,380, lead was unchanged at $1,227 and tin gained $35 to $8,500.



To contact the reporters on this story:
Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at
cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net;
Matthew Craze in London at mcraze@bloomberg.net

SEC
17-08-2006, 11:48 PM
I still think $20/lb is in your dreams Tricha, but will remain looooong on Ni, unlike the unfortunates who are short, like Posco.

Would love to be proved wrong. If so, I'll invite you to my island resort I'd just have bought!

SEC

SCHUMACHER
18-08-2006, 07:22 AM
Nickel below peak after LME intervention
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nickel futures held below record highs on Thursday as physical metal stocks dwindled and after the London Metal Exchange (LME) intervened to prevent any contract defaults, dealers said.

Nickel closed at a record peak of $29 200 on Wednesday as available stocks of metal in LME warehouses fell further, prompting the exchange to intervene overnight for the first time since 1988 by limiting cash premiums to $300 a day.

"Nickel stocks are at historically low levels and we now have a genuine material shortage. Our first priority is to ensure that trading remains orderly and to prevent the risk of settlement defaults," Simon Heale, LME Chief Executive, said on Wednesday.

The LME's special committee said anyone with a short position in nickel falling due from Friday who was unable to make physical delivery could defer for one day at a penalty of $300 per ton.

"I suppose the intervention was inevitable," an LME trader said, adding that it could attract more metal to the market.

Prices were expected to remain strong as stocks fell 42 tons to 6,120 tons on Thursday.

Of that, just 1 248 tons were available on uncancelled warrants to support the 1,3-million ton-per-year market.

ABN AMRO analyst Nick Moore said the value of available nickel in LME warehouses totalled $44-million.

"We have run out of nickel effectively. There is a massive squeeze in place and unless producers can be persuaded to put metal onto the exchange the pricing tension will remain acute," he said.

An LME spokesman said: "In the past stocks have never reached zero. The interaction of supply and demand has ensured that more material flowed into warehouse."

In the official rings, nickel fell to $28 650 on profit-taking.

"The market is very messy - verging on the disorderly, but the shorts have gotten off lightly at $300, I would have made them pay $1 000," a fund source said.

He said going short, or betting that prices would fall, was a very risky strategy.

"We have almost hit $30 000. I don't want to predict where prices will go, but the trend is very strong. I certainly wouldn't suggest going short," he said.

The tightness in the supply was also highlighted by the hefty premium for cash metal above three-month contracts of $3 500/$4 000 a ton.

whiteheron
18-08-2006, 09:25 AM
I have a question for those more (or maybe less) knowledgable than I on shorting

Why would anyone in their right mind short nickel when it is in such a critical supply shortage ???
This would surely have to be an EXTREMELY RISKY action !!!
To my way of thinking it would be tantamount to taking a very risky bet at long odds, taking such action out of the realms of investing and into the realms of gambling

I bet there are nickel shorters out there who are suffering sleepless nights at present, but I guess that their bowels will be very active as they must be fair sh-tting themselves

Any other thoughts on this ?

ananda77
18-08-2006, 09:51 AM
...prices for NI are very high because there is a squeeze on supply of the metal

...speculating forward, this situation seems to be unsustainable because supply will meet demand eventually...and prices will start falling...therefore 'short' seems to be a valid investment decision looking ahead...

but:

...shorting is risky at this stage because no one knows when the demand/supply imbalance will be levelled again and in the meantime prices could escalate further...therefore 'long' would be the immediate safer investment decision...

Kind Regards

whiteheron
18-08-2006, 10:10 AM
ananda

Your last sentence sums it up in my opinion

Although supply will match demnand in the longer term the present CRITICAL SHORTAGE must surely mean that prices are likely to rise further in the immediate future

I will be watching with much interest --- time will tell

ananda77
18-08-2006, 10:24 AM
...what happens though when the NI-market will collapse completely???

...impossible to have high prices for no product...and prices will collapse as well

Kind Regards

whiteheron
18-08-2006, 10:44 AM
I cant see a complete collapse in the nickel price as there is tremendous demand for it for stainless steel
Those prepared to pay the top price will capture the small amount of product available --- the old and well tested law of supply and demand

This is just my opinion, I see the nickel price reducing IN THE MEDIUM TERM to around US $7 to $9 per pound
Whether or not I am somewhere near the mark will be revealed in the next 18 months or so

I firmly believe that nickel stocks will produce extra good profits in the next couple of years, especially those that are up and running with relatively low production costs

I hold MCR, an excellent company in my opinion

tricha
18-08-2006, 11:05 PM
Nickel, a Base Metal, Is Scaling Speculative Heights Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

By VIKAS BAJAJ
Published: August 18, 2006
Considered bewitching by miners in Saxony who got skin rashes from handling it hundreds of years ago, nickel has recently cast a spell of a different sort on world financial markets.

This week, the metal’s surging price and falling stockpiles prompted the London Metal Exchange to impose restrictions on its trading, warning that “we now have a genuine material shortage.”

Since the start of the year, nickel supplies in warehouses approved by the exchange have fallen 83 percent while the price has risen 105 percent, the greatest increase among base metals.

In London yesterday, prices of nickel futures dropped 5 percent, to $27,700 a metric ton, suggesting that the exchange’s restrictions were having some effect.

Like other commodities, the price of nickel — which is used in making stainless steel, among other things — has been on a steep, rising curve in the last three years as producers have been unable to keep up with the voracious appetite of China, and to a lesser extent, India, for metals and other materials on which industrial economies are built.

And with most of the easiest deposits already tapped, mining companies are having to venture deep and far to obtain metals like copper, zinc and nickel.

After a brief slump in June, nickel prices rose steadily and began surging early this month as rumors swirled in London that a big buyer had made a substantial bet that the price of the metal would fall by selling 10,000 metric tons of it short. One report identified the seller as Posco, a large South Korean steel maker, but the company denied that.

In short sales, investors sell a borrowed commodity or a stock that they believe they will be able to buy later at a lower price. If the price falls, the trader can make a handsome profit. But if prices continue to rise, the seller must scramble to return the borrowed stock or seek to delay delivery, both of which can deal the trader a substantial and theoretically unlimited loss. If the bet is big enough, the seller’s desperation to buy can itself propel prices higher.

It may be impossible to know who sold how much nickel short, and “it’s not actually that relevant,” said Kevin Norrish, an analyst with Barclays Capital. He contends that nickel’s price is being driven up by fundamental factors. In a report released this week, the International Nickel Study Group, an organization of producing countries, said that demand for the metal was exceeding current production levels.

And Mr. Norrish added, “You have got lower production coming through than people had expected.”

To ease supplies in the short run, the London Metal Exchange beginning today, has imposed a daily limit of $300 a metric ton on how much short sellers have to pay to delay delivery of any nickel they have borrowed that is due to be returned. Previously, the price to delay delivery was set by the market and could run into thousands of dollars a ton. “It helps the market to operate in an orderly fashion without getting out of control,” a spokesman for the exchange, Adam Robinson, said.

The making of stainless steel takes up two-thirds of nickel production, with the rest going into aerospace, batteries and other uses. (The use of nickel in coins is minimal, and it makes up just 25 percent of the coin that bears its name; copper makes up most of it.)

Russia is the largest supplier of the metal, followed by Canada and Australia, but increasingly mining companies are looking to places like Indonesia and New Caledonia, a South Pacific island group long associated with the nickel trade.

In 2005, worldwide nickel production rose 7 percent, to 1.5 million tons, but output this year is slowing because of disruptions and delays at some big mines and production operations.

In the meantime, the strong global economy and a boom in new steel pl

tricha
21-08-2006, 11:43 PM
A bit of a line I stole from hotcopper, wheres the best value!

Contrasting opinions on Independence

Michael Quinn
Monday, 21 August 2006

IT IS a case of onwards and upwards for nickel producer Independence Group, though analysts are at odds over the valuing of the boom stock.

Independence closed up 4.5% at $3.26, maintaining a run that has seen it move up from under $2 in March to a peak of $3.59 in May.

According to an August 15 analyst report by Keith Goode, the stock remains an "accumulate (Hold, buy on weakness)", with a "7.5% NPV of $A3.12 at nickel prices of $US22,000 per tonne ($9.98 per pound)".

Indeed at a recent nickel price of around $29,000/t, the stock is worth almost $A4.50/share, according to Goode.

However, for Argonaut Securities, there is "better value elsewhere".

A report it put out around the same time as Goode's, claimed Independence was expensive compared to Kambalda peers Mincor Resource and Sally Malay Mining on five different valuation metrics – price to revenue, price to earnings, price to cash flow, enterprise value to reserves, and enterprise value to resources.

"Although Independence has lower cash costs than its Kambalda nickel competitors, the stock is relatively expensive on every valuation criteria," Argonaut analyst Troy Irvin said.

At a then share price of $2.90, Argonaut calculated that the market was paying a 36% premium to its net present value-based estimate – calculated using 10% discount and a nickel price falling from $US8.25/lb in fiscal 2007 to $5.50/lb in fiscal 2010. (Long term, Argonaut uses a $5/lb nickel price).

"Although Long mine is impressive, unjustifiable allowances for exploration upside have been placed in the share price," Irwin concluded.

SEC
22-08-2006, 12:19 AM
IGO is going to test that $3.59 peak again.

Interesting article Tricha. Either IGO is overpriced or MCR is underpriced. In the eyes of your typical broker MCR deserves a discount while current reserve estimates are used (due to be updated next month). I believe both are still underpriced based on Ni prices (both medium and long term) remaining above broker estimates and will continue to hold MCR and IGO in the meantime.

To think IGO was trashed to sub $2.20 just two months ago when Ni prices were still sky high. What a buying opportunity that turned out to be!!!

SEC

tricha
22-08-2006, 07:56 PM
Nickel hits alltime high

Tops $42,000 OZ - what does this number represent[?]

Ashok Divase / Mumbai August 22, 2006



Nickel prices touched an all-time high on Monday on the bourses. On domestic markets, the metal crossed Rs 1,600 per kilogram for the first time and closed at Rs 1,675. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), nickel closed at $33,400 per tonne.

Inventories at the LME warehouses slipped a further 222 metric tonne to 6,150, representing about last nine days of market consumption and raising further concerns about supply in a tight market.

Last Wednesday, spot nickel reached $33,400 a tonne on the LME. On Friday, it was trading around $32,995. Last nine trading sessions saw warehouse stock down by 220 metric tonne to 6,150 on Friday.

In the domestic market, the metal closed at an all-time high of Rs 1,675 per kg, up Rs 25 a kg from previous close and also the highest-ever since June 1996. Its all-time low was Rs 243 a kg on June 1, 1999.

Steel prices have started improving and this signals that fresh demand is coming in. This, in turn, will also boost nickel prices.

On the NCDEX the August contract was quoting at Rs 1,537 on Saturday, up 26.21 per cent over last 16 trading sessions, while the September and October contracts rose 20.79 per cent and 26.98 per cent, respectively, during the same period.

tricha
23-08-2006, 09:30 AM
Bring it on $43500 OZ a ton! oh what fun today [:p]


Nickel ¬ Aug 22, 15:22
Bid/Ask 15.4365 - 15.5272
Change 0.0000 0.00%
Low/High 15.4365 - 15.5272


Nickel Rises to 19-Year High as Rising Demand Erodes Inventory

By Katy Watson

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose to the highest price in at least 19 years on the London Metal Exchange on speculation that global inventories will be eroded by rising demand from makers of stainless steel.

Stockpiles of nickel monitored by the exchange have plunged 83 percent this year, and prices have more than doubled. Demand surged for the metal used to reduce rust in stainless steel as China needed more raw materials for homes, cars and appliances.

``For the moment, the market is very tight'' for immediate delivery, said John Kemp, an analyst at Sempra Metals in London. Prices will remain volatile ``until there is a much, much greater availability of stock,'' he said.

Nickel for delivery in three months rose $1,505, or 5.3 percent, to $29,950 a metric ton at 6:20 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, the highest since at least 1987, Bloomberg data shows.

Nickel for immediate delivery was even more costly, up $1,805, or 5.4 percent, at $35,200 a ton. The spread between spot supplies and metal for delivery in three months widened to $4,950 a ton yesterday, three times the difference on Aug. 1.

LME-monitored inventories total 6,240 tons today compared with 35,742 tons at the start of the year, exchange figures show.

The shortfall in nickel will be 30,000 tons this year, according to Toronto-based Inco Ltd., the world's second-largest producer. Stainless-steel output will rise 8.6 percent to 26.4 million tons, according to the International Stainless Steel Forum.

Reduced Production

Output has declined at nickel producers this year. A strike at Inco's Voisey's Bay mine in Newfoundland has curbed supply since July 28. BHP Billiton, the world's third-largest nickel producer, said production at its Yabulu mine in Australia dropped by a third in the second quarter.

The LME, the world's largest metals market, imposed a limit on borrowing and lending costs of nickel to $300 a ton a day on Aug. 16. Prior to the restriction, borrowers of nickel for immediate delivery had to pay more than $1,000 a ton, the highest since 1999, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Even after the rally, prices may be poised to fall.

Nickel's 14-day relative strength index rose to 71.295, from 66.653 yesterday. The index peaked at 75.418 Aug. 16, the highest since July 12. A reading above 70 typically indicates a decline is imminent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Katy Watson in London at kwatson@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 22, 2006 13:26 EDT

David Hardman
23-08-2006, 09:57 AM
Hey guys

What dates are we expecting IGO and MCR to report?

Lizard
23-08-2006, 10:26 AM
IGO - 8 September

whiteheron
23-08-2006, 10:33 AM
MCR reported last year on 24 August, so must be pretty soon

David Hardman
23-08-2006, 04:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

MCR reported last year on 24 August, so must be pretty soon


Just spoke to the company. Expect an announcement late this week.

tricha
23-08-2006, 09:42 PM
Game on for the Nickel Heads

Jubilee jubilant after result
(Wednesday, 23 August 2006)

NICKEL producer Jubilee Mines has posted the biggest annual profit in its history, earning a record $A103.4 million profit after tax in 2005-06 on the back of the strong nickel price.

Dazza
23-08-2006, 10:08 PM
FXR - up nearly 20%

OA's - up a mammoth nearly 50%

small as MC - 150 mill

producing both Fe, Ni, Cu

tricha
24-08-2006, 09:46 PM
Would be great if this is right! But no one knows.

Nickel prices likely to stay high

Source: Business News Americas



See also
Nickel Board
Nickel CatalogSoaring nickel prices, which hit a record on Tuesday (Aug 22) of $15.286/lb on the London Metal Exchange (LME), will likely stay high for "several years," Numis Securities analyst Simon Toyne told BNamericas.

Only if new projects are able to offset low stocks, and a significant slow down occurs in major world markets, would prices decline, Toyne added.

Cash nickel has averaged $9.013/lb so far this year on the LME. The metal's average price in 2005 was $ 6.683/lb.

According to the analyst, the rising demand for nickel from growing markets in China, Western Europe and the US coupled with dramatically low stocks are the primary causes of the current high nickel trend.

"There has been a big pickup in demand from the stainless steel industry," Toyne said. "Plus supply is quite tight since the strike at (Canadian miner Inco's) Voisey's Bay (nickel mine) in Canada."

"Projects are also taking longer to be brought on stream," he added. "The capex of bringing a nickel project on stream is rising dramatically."

LME stocks have dropped from 36,042t on January 3, the first trading day of 2006, to 6,666t on August 23.

Roughly 70% of the world's nickel production is used to make stainless steel, which will see prices rise along with nickel as the higher costs are passed along directly to stainless steel consumers, Toyne said.

Toyne explained that the price of nickel is incorporated into stainless steel's alloy surcharge, therefore consumers will lose out while stainless steel producers will merely transfer the higher costs.

Flat rolled 7% stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate between $1.6868/lb and $1.8568/lb in the US during September, according to Metalprices.com.

As for substitution, stainless steel can be replaced by galvanized steel, an alloy that uses zinc and is also non-corrosive, but "you don't hear much talk of substitution for galvanized steel," Toyne said.

Nickel fell slightly to $15.105/lb on the LME Wednesday from Tuesday's record.

tricha
24-08-2006, 11:20 PM
Nickel just hit $45,000 OZ a ton

But even if it was $35,000 a ton OZ, thats still a huge mark up on the last quarter, so nearly 2\3 of the quarter gone, profits inline to be outrageous for this quarter, for nickel producers [:p]

Nickel ¬ Aug 24, 07:29
Bid/Ask 15.7124 - 15.7238
Change +0.3969 +2.59%
Low/High 15.1795 - 15.7918
Charts


Nickel: producer order books are full
By: Rhona O’Connell
Posted: '24-AUG-06 10:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006





LONDON (Mineweb.com) --The announcement this week from Albidon Limited that it has posted a bankable feasibility study at its Munali nickel project in Zambia, and associated comments from the company’s Managing Director that the project may be expanded beyond the current projection of 8,600 tonnes of nickel production per annum, comes at a propitious time, given the state of the nickel market. Conditions are tight and getting tighter in the near term, and the London Metal Exchange recently imposed a $300/tonne (just less than 14cents/lb) cash-for-a-day backwardation limit in order to maintain orderly trading (see associated piece on this site), amid rumours of a very large short position in the market.

The LME official price for nickel on 22nd August was $33,700/tonne, equivalent to $12.28/lb, compared with an average for the year to date of $19,036/tonne ($8.58/lb) and of $14,582/tonne ($6.54/lb). The tightness in the market is amply illustrated by the forward curve; metal for 15-months was $22,800/tonne ($10.34/lb) and for 27 months, $19,650/tonne ($8.91/lb). Inventories on the London Metal Exchange, the only terminal market where nickel is traded, amount to 6,240 tonnes, which when compared with annual demand of 1.09 million tonnes for this year (GFMS Metals Consulting Ltd estimates), is equivalent to only two days’ global consumption.

To put this into further context, GFMS Metals Consulting records that overall reported market inventory levels at the end of 2005 were 114,000 tonnes, equivalent to 5.6 weeks’ consumption and the group has the market in a minimum 21,000 tonne deficit this year. They estimate that inventories at the end of the second quarter were 4.6 weeks’ consumption and after a small increase in this current quarter, will drop again by end-year to 4.3 weeks’ consumption.

Accepted wisdom is that a base metal market is in a fair condition, neither too tight nor too slack, when inventories amount to between four and six weeks’ demand. In principle, therefore, nickel looks to be in a reasonable state at present, but it is running in a persistent deficit and high prices are discounting continued tightness for the foreseeable future. Premia at end-July were also high, having increased sharply during the month. This was especially noticeable in Europe, where nickel briquette premia were between $700 and $1,000/tonne, compared with $600-700/tonne in mid-month. Uncut cathode premia are also strong at $180-190/tonne while cut cathode premia are in the $580-650/tonne range.

Nickel supply has been disrupted by cost overruns and technical problems associated with the commissioning of pressure acid leach projects (plus ça change – the same thing was happening ten years ago), notably at Murrin Murrin in Australia, operated by Monara Resources. This has resulted in a shortfall of approximately 3,000 tonnes, while a fire at Sorako in Indonesia means that PT Inco has had to cut its production in the second quarter of the year and will sustain an output reduction of the order of 4,000 tonnes for the year as a whole. Elsewhere in Indonesia, PT Antam has closed its FeNi III smelter for three months and production is likely to be constrained to roughly 15,000 tonnes, down from a previously scheduled 20,000 tonnes. Just these three operations, therefore, a reducing their production

tricha
25-08-2006, 09:44 AM
Nickel near high on stocks, but growth worries
Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:46 PM GMT
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By Nick Trevethan

LONDON (Reuters) - Nickel hovered near a record $29,950 a tonne on Thursday as available stocks held at about half a day of global consumption, but slowing economic growth may dampen the longer term outlook for metals.

"Nickel is tight, but stocks are holding. Medium term, there is potential for more on the upside in copper, nickel and zinc," BaseMetals.com analyst William Adams said.

But the risk of slowing economic growth, particularly in the United States, meant the longer-term outlook was less bright.

"We will see firm demand from Asia, but I am concerned about a slowdown in the United States," Adams said.

"The impact of higher rates and a weaker housing market may take time to feed into metals, but if the U.S. consumer slows there will be a knock-on effect for China and other Asian manufacturers."

New orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell by 2.4 percent in July, which was much more than expected, as civilian aircraft and car orders tumbled, a government report showed.

On Wednesday the National Association of Realtors reported U.S. July existing homes sales fell to their lowest since January 2004.

"The housing market doesn't seem to be cooling; it actually seems to be getting frigid," said Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York.

Nickel gained $975 or 3.4 percent to $29,675/29,700 at midday, but volumes were limited at 155 lots as investors steered clear of a market crippled by low stocks.

LME-monitored warehouse stocks fell 240 tonnes to 6,426 tonnes, of which only 1,716 were available to the market to support global consumption of 3,600 tonnes a day.

"I am amazed that the price is this high, but the supply situation probably justifies it," a dealer said.

He added that the high prices might hurt the market in the longer term as nickel consumers, mostly stainless steel mills, looked for alternatives.

Copper was up $50 at $7,660 and aluminium rose $14 to $2,497.

Traders said investors would track events at BHP Billiton's giant Escondida copper mine in Chile, where a 2-1/2-week strike has cut production by half at the operation, which produces 8 percent of the world's copper.

"This isn't a bad thing for BHP Billiton. They have a lot of other producing mines and their shares are going up on the back of stronger copper prices," the dealer said.

"A settlement will have a kneejerk reaction and prices will drop, but speculators may use a sell-off to pick up a few bargains as later this year there are more pay talks that cover about 20 percent of the world's production," he said.

Luis Troncoso, president of the 2,052-member union at Escondida, said: "We are back at step one. At this time there are no talks with the company...because they said they've given all they are going to give, so the dialogue was shut off immediately."

On Wednesday BHP Billiton announced a record $10.45 billion profit for fiscal 2006. The company's shares were little changed at about 1007 pence.

Chip Goodyear, chief executive of BHP Billiton Ltd./Plc., the world's top miner, said late on Wednesday that demand for goods such as washing machines, air conditioners and cars in developing nations like China was unlikely to let up, driving up demand for metals.

Zinc was at $3,395/3,415, up $51.

Zinifex Ltd., the world's second-largest zinc producer, on Thursday forecast a strong year ahead on further growth in metals prices as global demand for industrial raw materials, led by China, outran supply.

tricha
29-08-2006, 09:37 AM
Commodity Strategists: Nickel Deficit Likely, SocGen Says

By Tan Hwee Ann

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel supplies may fail to meet demand this year as purchases by steelmakers and manufacturers jump as much as 10 percent, Societe Generale SA said.

There may be a deficit of 25,000 metric tons this year, compared with an earlier forecast of a surplus of 20,000 tons, analysts led by Paris-based Frederic Lasserre at France's third- largest bank said in an Aug. 25 report.

Prices of nickel, used to rustproof steel, reached the highest in at least 19 years on Aug. 22 as companies including Outokumpu Oyj increased output of stainless steel. Stocks of nickel tracked by the London Metal Exchange have dropped 83 percent this year as mining companies such as Inco Ltd., the world's second-largest producer, reported supply disruptions.

``It was always likely that stainless steel would rebound but few can have expected the surge in world production,'' Societe Generale said. Nickel demand ``now looks set to exceed the 8-9 percent predicted by some commentators.''

Demand from developed countries is leading consumption, the analysts said. Manufacturers in Western countries will probably buy 1.075 million tons of nickel this year, up from an earlier forecast of 1.02 million tons, the bank said. The nickel market may remain in deficit of 30,000 tons next year, the bank said.

Stainless steel production may jump 20 percent in the third quarter of the year, from 2005, according to London-based independent steel researcher CRU, Societe Generale said.

Lasserre has worked for Societe Generale for the past 10 years after teaching economics and finance at the Bordeaux Business School in France.

Inventories Drops

Inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have dropped to 6,120 metric tons. Prices have more than doubled this year, and reached $29,950 a ton on Aug. 22, the highest in at least 19 years according to Bloomberg data. The metal closed at $29,400 a ton on Aug. 25 in London.

``Whilst supply disruptions have certainly played a role, the driving force has undoubtedly been the astonishing cyclical recovery of demand,'' Societe Generale said.

Mining companies lost as much as 25,000 tons of production in the first-half of 2006, or about 2 percent of total global output last year. Shortfalls will likely continue in Indonesia, and may be worsened due to a strike at Toronto-based Inco's Voisey's Bay mine, the bank said.

Strike Cuts Output

PT International Nickel Indonesia, a unit of Inco and the Southeast Asian nation's largest nickel miner, had an accident at its furnace in May that will cause output to drop to 158 million pounds for the year, down from a target of 167 million pounds.

A strike at Inco's Voisey's Bay mine in Canada may drag on for months, a union executive said Aug. 2. The strike at the mine, which produces about 4 percent of global nickel output, began on July 28.

Demand has also risen in China, where stainless steel production will likely rise more than 25 percent to 4.7 million tons this year, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., which advises the Chinese government on industry policies.

Chinese consumption will boost nickel demand by 35,000 tons, or half the projected increase in global demand, Xu Aidong an analyst at Antaike said July 7.

Global nickel use may rise to 1.33 million tons this year from 1.26 million tons last year, she said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tan Hwee Ann in Melbourne hatan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 27, 2006 23:34 EDT

tricha
31-08-2006, 12:56 AM
Two sides to every story!


Nickel Drops as Stockpiles Rise; Copper Gains on Chile Strike

By Katy Watson

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell in London on speculation stockpiles may increase, easing the supply shortage of the metal used to make stainless steel, while copper prices gained as a strike at Chile's Escondida mine continued.

Nickel inventory monitored by the London Metal Exchange gained 84 tons, or 1.5 percent, to 5,892 tons, which is equivalent to half a day of global consumption. The metal has more than doubled this year on the London Metal Exchange, as inventories have dropped 84 percent.

``There has been for a few weeks now speculation that arrivals will pick up as we go into the remainder of the year,'' said Robin Bhar, an analyst in London at UBS AG. ``This could see more metal finding its way into the LME,'' he said, adding that this would ``put pressure on the price.''

Nickel for three-month delivery on the LME fell $1,000, or 3.5 percent, to $27,500 a ton as of 12:55 p.m. in London. The metal reached a record $29,950 on Aug. 22.

The decline came after more nickel stockpiles monitored by the LME became available to buyers. The so-called open tonnage of nickel, or metal that can be purchased from the LME-monitored inventory, jumped 70 percent to 2,538 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report, compared with 1,494 tons the day before.

Eramet SA, a French nickel producer, said yesterday the metal's supply is ``roughly'' in balance with demand, as production catches up with consumption.

No Shortage Seen

``We don't see a shortage at the moment,'' Philippe Joly, spokesman for Paris-based Eramet, said. Global demand for the metal has risen this year, he said.

Nickel may have also fallen because of a trader ``mainly acting for funds,'' said Herwig Schmidt, a trader at Triland Metals Ltd. in London, without being more specific.

tricha
31-08-2006, 10:33 PM
The othe side of the story, 2 months of exceptional nickel prices = 2 months of exceptional profits for nickel producers

Nickel Gains After Inventories Drop by Most Since July 14

By Katy Watson

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose in London after inventories fell the most in more than six weeks, fuelling concern that supply may fail to keep pace with growing demand for the metal used to make stainless steel.

Stockpiles of nickel monitored by the London Metal Exchange dropped 720 tons, or 12 percent, to 5,172 tons, the biggest percentage decline since July 14.

Rising consumption from groups such as Chinese stainless- steelmakers may help create a production shortfall of 25,000 metric tons this year, Societe Generale said last week. Nickel has more than doubled this year on the London Metal Exchange.

``Stainless steel has held up really quite strongly and therefore so has nickel,'' said David Thurtell, a metals analyst at BNP Paribas in London. ``Things are still very tight and those stocks declines today underscore that.''

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME climbed $900, or 3.3 percent, to $28,400 a metric ton as of 9:56 a.m. local time.

Also on the LME, copper gained $120 to $7,570 a metric ton, aluminum added $23 to $2,508, lead rose $23 to $1,238, tin was $150 higher at $9,000 and zinc advanced $70 to $3,410.

To contact the reporter on this story: Katy Watson in London at kwatson@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 31, 2006 04:59 EDT

tricha
02-09-2006, 02:49 PM
Lets all hope the bit at the bottom is right, JBmurc will be on a winner with AGM.

WSA already starting to show true colours, the (next JBM, great grades and heaps of it)


IGO, MCR, JBM, SMY will be creaming it!

Along with FXR, but they have copper and zinc as well.

With BRW whey behind the 8 ball as far as nickel goes.


ssue Date: 9/1/2006, Posted On: 9/1/2006

Nickel prices no chump change; causing headaches for boatbuilders
Marine hardware manufacturers are feeling the effects of the rising cost for nickel alloys, a primary component of stainless steel.



Nickel prices have more than doubled since September 2005, from $7 a pound last year to almost $15 a pound today, according to http://www.metalprices.com/, an industry Web site that tracks prices on the London Metal Exchange.



A drawdown in nickel inventories has raised the price of some stainless steel products by 15 percent to 18 percent from the past year, according to one hardware manufacturer. Stainless steel is commonly used in everything from propellers to hardware to steering wheels.



“The majority of boats in the industry could not be put together without stainless steel,” says Matt Bridgewater, president of Gem Products, a marine hardware manufacturer based in Orange Park, Fla. “This is going to affect everybody.”



Prices for some grades of stainless steel have risen even higher. Molybdenum, a type of stainless steel with higher nickel content than generic blends, increased from $4 a pound in 2004 to more than $24 a pound today, according to John Pugh, president and owner of Marine Hardware in Redmond, Wash.



Pugh says the problem isn’t with just nickel. He said prices for all metals have risen in recent years. Stainless steel products went up last year, too, but he said that got lost in the copper increases. This year, it’s nickel prices that have “skyrocketed,” he said.



“All of the metal parts on entry-level boats to superyachts are going to have a 20-percent increase in costs this year,” said Pugh.



Bridgewater says there’s no way hardware manufacturers can absorb those increases. They’re going to have to pass on the higher costs to boatbuilders. He says that makes it tough for builders who already took orders at their recent dealer meetings.



What makes things even tougher, he continued, is that hardware manufacturers can’t get fixed pricing on stainless steel for more than 30 days out. They used to be able to lock in prices for a year. One vendor he spoke with said stainless steel shipments are delayed for about six weeks, and prices are subject to change at the time of delivery.



“They’re moving to a quotation system at the time of shipment,” Bridgewater said.



Pugh said hardware manufacturers can insulate themselves, somewhat, by buying metal futures or stocking up on materials. However, that would require a commitment from the boatbuilder to purchase a certain amount of products.



“The most anyone can do is lock in the price for one model year,” he said.



As for the delays in stainless steel shipments, he said, “You can always buy your way to the front of the line.”



In the long run, however, Pugh said the marine industry may have to consider alternative materials for some boat components, such as more sophisticated plastics.



“The price of metal used to be pretty cheap as far as the cost of a boat,” he said. “Now we may have to go back and analyze ways to reduce metal and lighten the boat. All of the boatbuilders are coming to us, saying we need price reductions.”



Bridgewater said he expects nickel prices to level off as supplies increase to match demand. However, he said that may not happen until the middle of next year.


— Melanie Winters

m.winters@tradeonlytoday.com

SEC
07-09-2006, 09:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

IGO is going to test that $3.59 peak again.



Tested and smashed.

Ho ho ho.

edison
07-09-2006, 11:45 PM
Maybe u guys should look at Mirabela Nickel (MBN). Their Santa Rita project in Brazil is most likely an economical mine with Nickel price at $5US/lb (to start production in 2008) so if Nickel prices stays this high for next two years MBN will be printing money. Its shares has gone gangbusters for the last month (+50%) with low selling volume, so this stock is not really played by traders. Another good thing is that their major shareholders include Inco and Macquarie Bank, as well as Directors having 25% of shares available. Also they are planning to list in TSX later this year.

Have a look at their presentation here:
http://www.mirabelanickel.com.au/documents/MirabelacorporatepresentationAugust2006v2.pdf

tricha
21-09-2006, 10:58 PM
Bring it on, one week to go and IGO, MCR, SMY, JBM,Minera and maybe a few others, will have the best quarter ever, so far. [:p][:p]

They will literally smash it!

Edision suggests " Maybe u guys should look at Mirabela Nickel (MBN)." I put it in the same class as AGM and WSA, huge potential as long as nickel stays up there.
New mines generally have a few heartbreaks, before getting fully into production.
But after reading this articule, spot the potential in purple, hmm.

Cheers from the one eyed nickel head!;)

Nickel Prices Gain as Inventory Drops the Most in Three Weeks

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose on the London Metal Exchange after stockpiles monitored by the bourse fell the most in three weeks, cutting reserves in warehouses to less than two days of global consumption.

Nickel inventory dropped 312 metric tons, or 4.9 percent, to 6,078 tons, the exchange said in a daily report. Stockpiles of the metal used in stainless steel have plunged 83 percent this year and reached their lowest in 15 years in July.

``The metal supply isn't plentiful,'' Tony Warwick-Ching, a nickel analyst at London-based metals consulting company CRU, said today by telephone.

Nickel for delivery in three months gained $445, or 1.7 percent, to $27,400 a ton as of 10:11 a.m. local time. The contract has more than doubled in the past year, trading at $29,950 a ton Aug. 22, the highest since at least 1987.

Stainless steel production will expand 20 percent in the second half from a year earlier, Warwick-Ching said.

Among other metals, copper for delivery in three months on the LME rose $41, or 0.6 percent, to $7,490 a metric ton. Earlier it traded at $7,186, the lowest since Aug. 17. The metal has doubled in the past year and traded at a record $8,800 on May 11.

Stockpiles of copper dropped 0.5 percent to 123,325 tons, the LME said. That's less than three days of global consumption.

Zinc gained $65 to $3,405 a ton and lead fell $5 at $1,360. Tin slipped $20 to $8,975 and aluminum increased $14 to $2,484.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjroen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 21, 2006 05:17 EDT

tricha
21-09-2006, 11:01 PM
P.S Did you spot the mistake - Stainless steel production will expand 20 percent in the second half from a year earlier, Warwick-Ching said.

tricha
27-09-2006, 09:44 PM
Have you got your nickel yet, worth it's weight in gold!
[:p]
Nickel Gains on LME as Stockpiles Drop Most Since End of August

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel prices jumped as stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange posted the biggest drop since the end of August.
The inventory fell 552 metric tons, or 9.6 percent, to 5,172 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report. The decline left nickel stockpiles at their lowest since Aug. 31.

Nickel for delivery in three months rose $500, or 1.8 percent, to $28,150 a ton as of 9:06 a.m. on the LME.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjroen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 27, 2006 04:14 EDT

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JBmurc
28-09-2006, 01:14 PM
Have you got your nickel yet, worth it's weight in gold!

;)Bring it on 60% of my portfilo is Nickel with MCR,AGM;)

SEC
28-09-2006, 11:16 PM
quote:Originally posted by JBmurc

Have you got your nickel yet, worth it's weight in gold!

;)Bring it on 60% of my portfilo is Nickel with MCR,AGM;)


And much more useful than gold!

Nickel producers MCR, IGO, JBM and MRE all broke record highs today, with more to come!

Nickel stocks only comprise 10% of my portfolio, but it's a growing proportion.

SEC

SEC
02-10-2006, 11:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

I held MCR right through this correction, and bought a swag of IGO today (as low as $2.03 this morning - oh pllllleeeeease, give me a break, there's some desparate sellers out there!!!).


IGO recently went ex div yet still went up 10% today. Just celebrated a 100% return on IGO - bought less than 4 months ago. As mentioned above, sellers were so desperate on June 14 to get rid of anything resource related, and realising a stock is hugely oversold is the key to some superb returns. That said, I reckon IGO is now trading at a premium to its peers, and I may look at some 'portfolio readjustment' in the near future. Or perhaps not, LME nickel stocks remain at critically low levels at a time of the year the Asian mills play games, draw down their inventories and hold back their Ni purchases.

SEC (MCR IGO)

nelehdine
03-10-2006, 07:45 AM
I sold out some IGO yesterday SEC at 439 .... has been a fantastic run. I still hold a few but am happy to reduce my exposure at these sorts of levels. I see the commod market got a little hit last night , oil and gold had rough nights. Could see the ASX down 30-40 points today me thinks.

tricha
05-10-2006, 10:06 PM
Can we run out of nickel [?][?][?]

Nickel market to get boost from hybrid cars


Require more nickel for their batteries, miner notes


Already booming due to strong demand from China and dwindling sources of mine supply, the nickel business is poised to get a boost from the rising demand for hybrid vehicles.

whiteheron
06-10-2006, 09:49 AM
tricha

And the nickel price continues at exceptionally high prices with little or no sign of a fall back !!!

tricha
06-10-2006, 11:50 PM
Yes all going great Whiteheron and if nickel stocks stay below 10,000 tons till Febuary, watch this space ................

This is in store for all nickel producers!

Record quarter for Murrin Murrin

Friday, 6 October 2006

UNHEDGED nickel miner Minara Resources has posted record quarterly results for its Murrin Murrin laterite operation in Western Australia, with a high nickel price fuelling strong revenue

JBmurc
10-10-2006, 01:16 PM
Nickel shines
By Tim Treadgold



PORTFOLIO POINT: Three big acquisitions in nickel indicate the boom has a long way to run; and more consolidation is likely lower down the market.


Nickel has been a classic “boom–bust” metal for Australian investors since the Poseidon days of almost 40 years ago. It is a brave man who says that this time will be any different.

But there is compelling evidence to support the claim that this nickel boom has very long legs, and while supply of any commodity always rises to meet demand, there is a price factor at work that will see nickel miners deliver bumper earnings for many years.

More importantly for investors, there is an emerging crop of nickel miners and explorers whose prices are yet to fully reflect the long-term supply/demand trend — or the price premium, which is normally seen in a sector ripe for a burst of takeover activity.

Stocks such as Heron Resources, Independence, Western Areas, and even the sector favourite, Jubilee Mines, are poised for something the nickel world has not seen before: a prolonged period of high profit and dividend payments, with the bonus of mergers and acquisitions.

One of the best ways to demonstrate that nickel has entered a new era is the dramatic activity at the top end of the business.

Two nickel takeovers are under way that dwarf BHP Billiton’s much-publicised acquisition of WMC Resources: Xstrata’s acquisition of Falconbridge and CVRD’s acquisition of Inco.

Combined, the Inco and Falconbridge acquisitions are costing $38 billion, an impressive number —perhaps so big that it masks the critical question of why ownership of three of the world’s biggest nickel miners has changed hands so quickly? Followed by the corollary question: Why hasn’t this top-end M&A activity flowed down the food chain to smaller nickel miners?

The simple answer to the first question is that the nickel market is behaving more like oil than its sister base metals of copper, zinc, lead, and aluminium, and while the oil price (along with gold and other hard commodities) has fallen recently it is far higher than it was a few years ago.

In fact, nickel and oil prices are tracing parallel paths. Five years ago oil dropped to a low of about $US10 a barrel; today it is about $US60, down on its mid-year peak, but six-times higher than 2001.

Nickel has performed a similar trick, only better. At the start of 2002 it was selling for about $US2 a pound. Today, it costs about $US13.80 … off its peak of $US15.50 but still close to seven times the price of almost five years ago.

The message from the nickel (and oil) market is that these are commodities least affected by Adam Smith’s “invisible hand”. In both cases, there is no obvious rush of supply catching the wave of demand.

On top of the current situation, it is highly likely that future supply will be much more expensive than today’s because most of the world’s “easy” nickel has been mined out; just as most of the world’s “easy” oil has been pumped.

As to the second question: why no M&A activity at the small end of the nickel business — there is an equally simple answer: it’s coming.

Before looking at the local stocks most likely to succeed in this next wave of the boom it’s worth taking a quick “Nickel 101” beginner course to understand why the game has changed.

Until recently, most nickel has been extracted from a particular type of rock which has the generic description of sulphide ore. It’s generally hard, high-grade and relatively easy to process. This is the stuff WMC discovered at Kambalda in WA in 1966, and Poseidon at Mt Windarra. It is also the basis of Canada’s nickel industry, and Russia’s giant mines at Norilsk in Siberia.

The problem with sulphide ore is that there have not been any major new discoveries for decades. That’s why there was a so-called “laterite nickel” stampede in the 1990s, an event that led to a series of spectacular flops, including the Bulong, Cawse and Murrin Murrin mines in WA.

Laterite ores are generally soft, low-grade,

Lizard
12-10-2006, 10:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

I sold out some IGO yesterday SEC at 439 .... has been a fantastic run. I still hold a few but am happy to reduce my exposure at these sorts of levels. I see the commod market got a little hit last night , oil and gold had rough nights. Could see the ASX down 30-40 points today me thinks.


IGO having an unbelievable run to $4.84. I sold the trading stock I picked up for $2.56 in June for a mere $3.83 last month - and patted myself on the back for a good trade... but now?!? Still have all my original long term holding from $1.20, but surely it is taking more than the price of nickel to justify these levels?

tricha
13-10-2006, 02:08 AM
Have you got your nickel yet, worth it's weight in gold!

Nickel near peak in light LME trade

By Nick Trevethan

LONDON (Reuters) - London nickel futures were trading just below this week's record high on Thursday, and analysts said the metal had potential to climb to new peaks in the near term on tight inventories.

Other contracts on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were little changed, trading just below Wednesday's closing levels.

"Nickel is getting stronger...I think copper will recover as well and that would strengthen the whole complex," an analyst in London said.

Nickel for delivery in three months was at $30,000 a tonne by 1040 GMT, compared with $30,100/30,150 on Wednesday. Earlier this week it hit a record high of $30,250.

Investors were betting that limited stocks of the metal, used to make stainless steel more malleable, would be insufficient to meet demand in the traditionally strong first quarter.

Stocks jumped 966 tonnes to 4,986 overnight to just over a day's global consumption, but with 2,334 tonnes of that earmarked for delivery, just 2,652 tonnes were available to support the 1.4 million tonne-per-year market.

The market was low-key, dealers said, with many players still out of the office as the annual LME dinner week winds down.

"A lot of the market is missing, either in meetings or travelling back after the LME week," one said.

"There is a general lack of interest and investors seem quite happy to wait for next week, when volumes will pick up," he added.

Copper was at $7,450, against Wednesday's close at

$7,515.

In industry news, China imported 528,953 tonnes of scrap copper in September, 30 percent more than in August.

But Chinese imports of copper, including semi-finished products, fell 23.6 percent from a year earlier to 1.5 million tonnes in the first nine months of this year, data showed on Thursday.

Dealers said attention was shifting to low copper stocks, helping to support copper despite bearish expectations for Chinese refined copper demand growth this year.

"As we get to the end of this year and into next, we could see copper spike back up to $10,000 or $12,000. Stocks are low and there is always the chance we could see things rise sharply," the trader said.

The market hit a record $8,800 in May.

Aluminium was unchanged at $2,600.

Analysts noted increasing tightness in the market. A month ago three-month aluminium was trading at some $50 higher than the cash price.

On Thursday cash prices exceeded the three month price by

$1.50.

In a well-supplied market, futures prices typically are higher than nearby prices, reflecting interest, insurance and storage costs for metal, but when material is in short supply, buyers will pay more for cash metal in order to secure their needs.

"The nearby spreads are all beginning to tighten in anticipation of a squeeze around the 20 December 2006," Sempra Metals economist John Kemp said in a report.

"Most of the tightness is nearby. But dates throughout 2007 tightened slightly."

Lead was steady at $1,455, or $15 short of Wednesday's record, while zinc and tin were around previous closing levels.

pago
13-10-2006, 05:20 PM
hi ,igo briefly broke through $5.00 today,an amazing run but must be looking fully valued for now.mcr broke through $1.50 with more upside if nickel prices hold.so much for those experts who called the resource boom was over.cheers pago.

tricha
14-10-2006, 12:38 AM
Yes Pago, boom , boom, its starting to go nuts!

Copper October 13,08:04
Bid/Ask 3.4263 - 3.4308
Change +0.0352 +1.04%
Low/High 3.3707 - 3.4399
Charts

Nickel October 13,08:05
Bid/Ask 15.1953 - 15.2180
Change +0.2049 +1.37%
Low/High 14.9905 - 15.2634
Charts

Aluminum October 13,08:06
Bid/Ask 1.2055 - 1.2078
Change +0.0272 +2.31%
Low/High 1.1683 - 1.2078
Charts

Zinc October 13,08:04
Bid/Ask 1.7218 - 1.7286
Change +0.0122 +0.72%
Low/High 1.7051 - 1.7377
Charts

Lead October 13,08:05
Bid/Ask 0.7128 - 0.7151
Change +0.0212 +3.07%
Low/High 0.6916 - 0.7151
Charts

Uranium Oct 12, 2006
Ux U308 price: 56.00
Change from
previous week +0.25

tricha
14-10-2006, 01:47 AM
$44,454 a ton, OZ!

SEC
15-10-2006, 04:06 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

IGO having an unbelievable run to $4.84. I sold the trading stock I picked up for $2.56 in June for a mere $3.83 last month - and patted myself on the back for a good trade... but now?!? Still have all my original long term holding from $1.20, but surely it is taking more than the price of nickel to justify these levels?


Analysts have recently increased forecast eps for nickel stocks, IGO is no exception and is currently trading on 07 PE of 9.6.

It looks as if IGO is being rerated so its peer is more like JBM rather than MRE (production problems) or MCR (short mine life). If you think IGO is expensive, JBM is trading on a PE multiple of 13.6! If IGO is priced on a PE multiple higher than JBM, it's time to sell. Until then, I'll continue to hold.

SEC (IGO MCR)

SEC
15-10-2006, 04:36 PM
Tricha, I'm surprised you didn't post this gem from Bloomberg:

Nickel Rises to a 19-Year High as Mine Blocked by Protestors

By Marianne Stigset

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose to its highest in at least 19 years after protesters blocked a mine owned by Eramet SA on New Caledonia and inventory tracked by the London Metal Exchange fell the most in three months.

Eramet runs the world's biggest ferronickel plant and managed to ship metal to Europe this week amid a general strike on the Pacific island. Protesters are still blocking one of four mines, Pierre Alla, chief executive officer of Eramet's local unit, said by telephone.

``Nickel is suffering from some serious subtraction threats,'' said Mo Ahmadzadeh, president of Mitsui Bussan Commodities Ltd., in an interview in London today. ``The world is short of new nickel projects. It's a tense situation.''

Nickel for delivery in three months was $50 higher at $30,550 a metric ton on the LME as of 11:06 a.m. London time, after earlier adding as much as $200, or 0.7 percent. Prices of nickel, used in batteries and to rust-proof steel, have more than doubled this year, the first yearly gain in three.

Inventory in warehouses tracked by the LME fell 702 metric tons, or 14 percent, to 4,284 tons, the exchange said today. That's the biggest decline since July 14. Stockpiles have plunged 88 percent this year and are equal to less than two days of global consumption.

Among other metals for delivery in three months on the LME, copper added $20 to $7,500 a ton. Aluminum fell $3 to $2,592. Lead gained $10 $1,505, tin rose $400 to $9,850 and zinc climbed $24 to $3,785.

whiteheron
15-10-2006, 09:49 PM
This is an excellent example of the law of supply and demand in action
High demand, coupled with low stocks and production equals high prices

And there seems little if any chance of this changing in the short to medium term --- and maybe even in the long term

The world is wanting more and more of a commodity which is becoming more scarce and more expensive to produce !!!

JBmurc
16-10-2006, 11:48 AM
If you belive Nickel's price will stay high for the longer term then I highly recommend -AGM- will be producing late next year(unless BTX lets them produce early)
-will have massive Nickel reserve as in a highly pospective area in western tas with so many postive compared to the WA miners
-20%-plus nickel concentrates a new Global benchmark
-talk of +150,000t ni reserve prob
1st year -5,700tpa nickel
2nd-8,500tpa nickel
Operating costs est. US4,900
At current Ni prices AGM will be making gross profit est. 100m+ 1st yr 170m+ 2nd
AGM-33c Market cap-200mill

tricha
17-10-2006, 02:08 AM
Ouch! what happens if we run out of Nickel [?]

Eramet Says Strikers Block Access to Two Mines in New Caledonia

By Tan Hwee Ann

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Eramet SA, which operates the world's largest ferronickel plant in New Caledonia, said strikers blocked access to two of its mines on the Pacific island today, limiting its supply of ore.

The smelter on the French-controlled territory has over 10 days of ore reserves left, and needs more access to its mines by the end of the week, Pierre Alla, chief executive officer of Le Nickel-SLN, a unit of Eramet, said over the phone. Strikers had blocked access to one of its four mines last week.

``What we need is one of the mines that's been blocked to be opened, I'm quite confident that this will happen this week,'' said Alla. ``We're trying to convince the French government that they have to relieve the blockade.''

A general strike called by the New Caledonian Confederated Union of Workers to protest against the cost of living, and to seek more benefits from mining, is entering its fourth week. Prices of nickel, used in batteries and to rust-proof steel, have more than doubled this year, reaching the highest in at least 19 years this month as demand exceeds supply.

Nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8 percent to close at $30,750 a metric ton on Oct. 13, with gains supported by the supply disruption in New Caledonia and dwindling stockpiles. Inventories of nickel on the LME have slumped 88 percent this year amid soaring demand from China.

``New Caledonia is quite crucial,'' said Gerard Burg, a mineral economists at National Bank of Australia Ltd., over the phone in Melbourne. ``The obvious problem is that nickel stocks are in such short supply.''

The strike isn't targeted directly at Eramet, and as a result Eramet hasn't been able to negotiate with the union, Alla said.

Falling Inventories

Strikers put a lock on the gates of a second mine today, Alla said. The company expects to be able to open the gates and operate the mine tomorrow, he said. Of the company's two other mines, one is operating normally, and the other at half capacity, he said.

The company has declared force majeure on nickel deliveries to its Asian customers, and was considering doing the same for its European customers last week. Force majeure is a legal clause that allows a company to miss contracted deliveries without penalty because of circumstances beyond its control. It is invoked when operations are affected by strikes or accidents.

Police cleared the road to its smelter and to the port last week, enabling Eramet to continue shipments, Alla had said. The road to the smelter and the port remained clear, he said today.

Eramet had planned to increase nickel production at its Doniambo plant in New Caledonia by 12 percent to 67,000 tons this year.

New Caledonia, smaller in area than New Jersey, has about 25 percent of the world's known nickel resources, according to the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tan Hwee Ann in Melbourne at hatan@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: October 16, 2006 00:25 EDT

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wns
20-10-2006, 12:42 AM
I read an article in today's Australian about nickel - p.32 of the business section.

Was all positive in regards to nickel price for many years.

It said exploration budgets need to be three times current levels in Australia - just to keep up with forecasted demand. Demand from China set to double current levels in a couple of years from now.

Perhaps someone can post the article if they like.

Sid
20-10-2006, 09:06 AM
From the SMH:

Forget media, miners are going cheap
Kate Askew
October 20, 2006
MINING stocks "have never been cheaper" in the face of strong commodity prices, leading UK fund manager Evy Hambro said in Sydney yesterday.
"There's a huge gap between mining shares and metals prices," said Mr Hambro, who helps manage $US25 billion in investments for BlackRock, formerly Merrill Lynch Investment Management. He also runs the Bell Potter-backed Global Mining Investments Fund - which he said had returned 132 per cent, with funds under management now tallying $195 million, since it began trading on the Australian Stock Exchange in April 2004.
"We've now got a sector that's never been cheaper," he said. Whenever a gap opened between share prices and metals prices, it was a buying opportunity because share prices would catch up with that of metals. "Since May of this year a big gap has opened up," he said. "These opportunities don't come along very often.
"I heard last night we've got one day worth of nickel in LME warehouses," Mr Hambro added, noting the "incredibly powerful prices" of some commodities. "At these levels profit margins are in dreamland for these [mining] groups." He pointed particularly to nickel and zinc as being in tight supply.
Keeping commodity prices up was the fact that supply growth remained controlled. Mr Hambro said mining companies were not spending enough funds on growth and exploration.
On top of this, companies were investing more sensibly than before. "We're having very, very sensible capital allocation," he said. Capital management was a "new theme" for mining companies and unlike the past, when mining companies had been reluctant to pay dividends, they were returning capital to shareholders in never-before-seen quantities.
It was because of these components that "the cycle is going to last longer than people expect," Mr Hambro predicted.
"This is why we think private equity is going to get interested in this space," he said. "It's not the end of global growth and we're going to have a good year of commodity prices in 2007.
"2007 is likely to be another year of record profitability for the mining industry."
Mr Hambro also questioned why an investor would buy shares in WA Newspapers at 23 times earnings when it could by BHP at eight times.
The Global Mining Investments Fund's biggest holding is in BHP Billiton, which accounts for 7.9 per cent of funds invested. Following that are Brazilian iron ore producer CVRD, Rio Tinto and South African platinum producer Impala.
Goldman Sachs yesterday issued a buy recommendation on the fund. The fund's units have risen from their issue price of $1 to last trade at $1.27.

tricha
21-10-2006, 03:15 AM
UPDATE 1-Inco reports record third-quarter results

Prelude of whats to come - compare last year to this year


Fri Oct 20, 2006 10:04am ET
Market View
N (Inco Ltd )
Last: $85.82
Change: +0.24 (+0.28%)
Revenue (ttm): $5,232.0M
EPS: 4.27
Market Cap: $17,463.82M
Time: 10:53am ET



Stock Details
Company Profile
Analyst Research
Company News:
UPDATE 2-Inco posts record results, last before takeover
UPDATE 1-Inco reports record third-quarter results
More Company News...
At the Helm:
Scott Hand
Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

Salary: USD 1,024,240
Bonus: USD 1,994,790
Age: 63


Mr. Hand, 62, is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, a position he has held since April 2002. From April 2001 until April 2002, he... Full Bio

Full Management Team
Insider Trading Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+]
(Adds details. In U.S. dollars unless noted)

TORONTO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Inco Ltd. (N.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) reported a sharp jump in third-quarter profit on Friday, its highest ever quarterly earnings and last set of results before the Canadian nickel giant is taken over by Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (VALE5.SA: Quote, Profile, Research) (RIO.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Inco, the second biggest nickel producer in the world, said it earned $701 million, or $3.08 a share diluted, for the three months ended Sept. 30. That compared with a restated profit of $64 million, or 29 cents a share diluted, in the same period last year.

Adjusted earnings were $653 million, or $2.87 a share diluted, compared with a profit of $159 million, or 71 cents a share, last year.



Inco's results come one day after Brazilian iron ore giant CVRD won the last regulatory approval needed to take over the storied miner, and days before CVRD's C$19.35 billion all-cash offer expires on Monday.

Inco credited a doubling in the price of nickel and a 13 percent jump in nickel production for the best results in its 104-year history.

For the quarter, it produced 125 million pounds of finished nickel, benefiting from the start-up of its Voisey's Bay nickel mine on Canada's East Coast.

Meanwhile, the price of nickel averaged $13.24 a pound, compared with $6.61 a pound in the same quarter last year.

"Our record quarterly earnings reflect the unprecedented sustained strength we've seen in the nickel market, combined with strong production from our operations," Inco's chief executive Scott Hand said in a statement.

Hand made no direct comments on the pending takeover.


ż Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.

edison
21-10-2006, 01:05 PM
Tricha,

Surely u have to add AUZ as the new Nickel story, right? It has gone from 2 cents to 8.6 cents in a matter of 2 months (and it is still cheap)!!!!!! It has been very quite undervalued because it is a small Nickel operation so people haven't take notice but now Nickel is gone through the roof and people start to notice this!!!! Just look at the average volume in the last month! They have good exploration upside with possible extension of Blair mine. They also acquired Marriott Nickel project from BHP recently.

Of course I hold AUZ and having been trading in/out of it but now I am just gonna hold it.

Their website:
http://www.australianmines.com.au/

PS: If anyone else knows another of these unloved/undervalued Nickel story please let us know.

tricha
21-10-2006, 01:47 PM
Yes Edision - AUZ the new Nickel story [:p] and there are a lot more off them out there as well. Not room to add them all!

Nickel Gains to Highest Since 1987 as Demand Beats Supplies

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel surged, reaching the highest price since at least 1987, as supplies lag behind demand from makers of stainless steel, the biggest users of the metal.

The price of nickel, used as alloy in stainless steel production, has more than doubled this year as inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange plunged 86 percent. Mine output fell short of demand by 70,000 metric tons in the first eight months of 2006, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said.

``When things become short, and there's not much visible inventory, people have to have them,'' Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at London- and Lausanne-based Diapason Commodities Management, said today in an interview from London. ``There's not enough of the stockpiles to see people through.''

Nickel for delivery in three months soared $525, or 1.7 percent, to $32,200 a ton at 4:28 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, the highest in at least 19 years. Prices are up 4.7 percent since Oct. 13, the fifth straight weekly gain.

The Lisbon-based International Nickel Study Group has forecast a 10 percent jump in demand this year to 1.37 million metric tons. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the LME dropped 96 tons, or 2 percent, to 4,836 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report. Inventories are equal to less than two days of global consumption.

The shortfall of metal sent nickel for immediate delivery to $33,800 a ton as of yesterday, or $2,125 above the benchmark three-month contract. The premium for spot supplies over later deliveries is known as backwardation. In a market with ample supplies, prices of longer-dated contracts are higher than nearby ones to reflect storage and interest costs.

Producers of the metal have benefited from the price rally. Inco Ltd., the world's second-largest nickel producer, said today third-quarter profit soared to a record $701 million as prices jumped 85 percent during the period. Russia's OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel is the world's largest producer by 2005 output.

Nickel output at Inco increased 13 percent during the period, after the company began operations at its Voisey's Bay mine in Labrador and increased production at its Manitoba plant, the company said today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 20, 2006 11:30 EDT

sparrow
28-10-2006, 07:18 AM
More encouraging news for shareholders of base metal miners:



The commodity bull run is still in its early stages
October 27, 2006

By Bruce Tinney

The recent major themes of earnings growth, extraordinary cash flow and corporate activity should remain in place for the resources sector.

Strong, concerted growth in global industrial production has been the driving force behind the strength in commodity prices for the past three years.

Chinese industrial production, which grew at around 10 percent a year during the late 1990s, stepped up a gear to 20 percent. At the same time, Group of Seven (G7) industrial production recovered from the weakness in 2002, growing at an above-trend rate since 2004.

We are in the early stages of a long-term bull market for commodities, which should progress as Asia moves up the development curve. The per capita consumption of commodities for China and India is well below that of developed economies.

Recently, however, the G7 leading indicator has turned down, and globally we are now at the mature end of the current business cycle.

Historically, metal prices have declined when the US Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates. Oil prices have already corrected, and base metals are expected to follow. It is interesting that the price:earnings ratio of BHP Billiton, the largest miner in the world, is 11.5 times.

This is the same rating on which the company traded at the start of this commodity cycle early in 2003. In other words, the market is rating the company as if this is the end of the cycle, and earnings have peaked. No recognition is being awarded for its extraordinary cash flows, management initiatives, portfolio positioning or project pipeline.

The surge in demand for commodities followed years of underinvestment in production capacity, consequently new supply has simply failed to meet demand, as evidenced by falling metal inventories.

The poor supply-side response is not a short-term phenomenon; as capital and operating costs are rising and quali- fied people are in short supply


Cheers,
Sparrow

tricha
28-10-2006, 03:45 PM
Right on Sparrow, profits for all Nickel producers will be into Astro Space and should continue for a lot longer yet.

AGM will be in the money. Example, JBM 8 years ago only 10 cents a share, $10,000 then = $1,260,000 now, Oh and add $200,000 plus in dividends! That's out there!

WSA in the money starting now, next JBM!
IGO, MCR, SMY,JBM huge profits coming!!!!
FXR , the unknown, potential huge!
BRW still exploring, but ....

And theres many more of them.


'Commodities supercycle is simply pausing for breath'
Published: October 25 2006 03:00 | Last updated: October 25 2006 03:00

The recent strength of base metal prices has confounded the sceptics. Lead, zinc and nickel have all hit record levels while tin has surged to its highest level since 1989. Such gains have defied the forecasts of many investors who believed that the peak in the cycle for metal prices had passed.

US oil prices have declined by a quarter since early August but base metals have largely resisted crude's gravitational influence, displaying unexpected price resilience in the face of a US economic slowdown and concerns about its impact on global demand growth.


ADVERTISEMENT
Base metals markets remain very tight with available stocks - measured as a percentage of daily global consumption - sinking to rock bottom levels. This is reflected in the spreads between cash prices and the three-month futures prices. Cash prices for all base metals currently command a premium over three-month futures prices, reflecting the extreme tightness of short-term physical supplies.

This means that any news that affects potential supplies is having an immediate and dramatic impact on prices, as illustrated by the surge in tin prices after the Indonesian government closed down 20 small smelters for operating without proper permits.

There are concerns that current price levels are unsustainable as new supply is both inevitable and imminent.

This is reflected in the fact that markets are expecting that over the next four years commodity prices will return to their old long-run averages.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley are forecasting an extended period of high base metals prices with supply unlikely to close the gap with demand growth for five to 10 years.
Endemic supply side problems from skilled labour shortages to the challenging nature of many new deposits are leading to structural cost pressures. Long-run prices will need to be significantly higher to justify developing the marginal new capacity required to balance the market, according to Morgan Stanley.

Demand for base metals looks set to remain robust due to the gigantic infrastructure requirements in emerging markets.
Expansion in galvanised and stainless-steel production has generated huge demand for zinc and nickel.

Jeremy Gray, of Credit Suisse, says: "China's new rail and underground spending programme in the next five years could be bigger than the rest of the world's total investment in the last 20 years."
Credit Suisse adds that India's share of global copper demand is forecast to rise from about4 per cent currently to 10 per cent by 2010.

Wiktor Bielski, of Morgan Stanley, says the "supercycle is just pausing for breath". He adds: "Long-term prices should be 50-100 per cent higher than levels used over the past 10 to 20 years."

This could have significant implications for mining equities. The market's unwillingness to price in an extended period of high metals prices has seen mining shares de-rated.

Citigroup's estimates suggest that UK miners are trading on a 2007 price/

tricha
31-10-2006, 10:47 PM
Wow, one month into this next quarter and the average nickel price is up from the last quarter.

Which means profits will increase this quarter for all nickel producers, if the price stays above $35,000


MI WEEK IN REVIEW: Stocks flow eases tightness just a little

Metals Insider - 30 October 2006

MI WEEK IN REVIEW: The London nickel market remains a direct function of the exchange's daily stocks reports and the resulting impact on the cash-date tightness. It's going to be remain so until visible exchange inventory recovers to something that could be called a comfort zone, even if that amounts to no more than a rebuild from the critically low levels that are keeping all trading highly defensive.

Stocks Up, Backwardation Down

Each of the LME's daily stocks reports last week showed a net rise, with Friday's actual movement only covered in today's report.

When metal arrives in Rotterdam , which it did in the reports from Tuesday to Friday, the London “street” is generally unfazed as it is now a well-known phenomenon that the inflow of Russian metal moves swiftly through the system and what is delivered on to warrant is taken back off warrant in a matter of days.

When the inflow comes elsewhere in the LME's warehouse system, it carries greater psychological impact.
Thus, Thursday's report showing a net 1,086t increase in exchange inventories set the market on the skids not just because of the size of the warrantings—1,404t—but because they included a hefty 960t at Pusan in South Korea and a second modest tranche at Baltimore (two-day total was 300t).

What comes into the LME system is also quickly cross-checked with the cancellation rate for that day, which compounded the bearish impact of Thursday's report because fresh cancellations were “only” 96t.

The effect of Thursday's report was a sharp loosening in that cash tightness. The “tom-next” spread—the shortest-dated traded on the LME—had been trading at around $30 backwardation prior to the report. Within minutes it had contracted to $5 backwardation.

From the cash date, the impact rippled through the forward structure of the market. By the close the cash-November period had contracted to $150 backwardation from Wednesday's $275, while the full cash-3s period narrowed to $1,150 backwardation from $1,625.
In this context 3-month metal trading is a puppet on a string and it sank to the week's lows of $30,200 late in the afternoon session.

Cancellations Up, Price Up

That was a key support level, marking the technical reversal of what had been the key resistance level prior to the break higher earlier this month.

Maybe another “bear” stocks report on Friday could have compounded the damage but in the event we got a much smaller 306t rise with most of the day's 432t inflow coming at Rotterdam AND we got a sharp jump in cancellations to 372t.

The result was “tom-next” moving back out to $20 backwardation with the ripple effect of Thursday going into reverse, 3-month metal ending the day and week valued back up at $31,000, seemingly out of harm's way for now at least…or to be more accurate, until this morning's stocks report.

The problem is that LME tonnage is still so marginal that even relatively small changes in the rates of stocks warranting, draw and cancellation can turn sentiment on its head in the space of seconds.

Unsurprisingly, outright trading volumes remain anaemic with defensive book-protection the order of the day for most market participants. That's particularly evident further down the forward curve, which is generating all sorts of anomalies between valuations and actual quotes on an intraday basis.

Structural Deficit

The key point to note in terms of the broader picture is just how little metal is coming into the LME system given the huge premiums on offer to sell and/or lend it into these raging backwardations.

The LME's daily reports last week (actually

nelehdine
02-11-2006, 09:15 PM
Kitcometals showing Ni down a monsterous $1.25 / lb this a.m. ( 8.5% ). Has the bubble burst and will it be a black Friday for Ni producers tomorrow ???

SEC
03-11-2006, 12:37 AM
quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

Kitcometals showing Ni down a monsterous $1.25 / lb this a.m. ( 8.5% ). Has the bubble burst and will it be a black Friday for Ni producers tomorrow ???


Looks like the Kitco nickel data feed is corrupted (again), Bloomberg indicates Ni up $300 per tonne so far tonight.

tricha
04-11-2006, 12:42 PM
Looks like Kitco only interested in gold SEC, probably on a high at the moment.
A few clues in this articule to maybe, nickel price zoom!

Friday, Nov 3
While the rest of the market ended on the positive side, LME nickel ended the day and week at $14.25/lb ($31,400/tonne). Have a nice weekend!!
* Reuters - How investors gain access to commodities here
* Brief review of Eramet's operations in New Caledonia here
* There is a lot of speculation among traders we could see a new record high in the few weeks for LME nickel. Much of this has to do with the dynamics of support and resistance levels traders use to gauge the future. We are concerned that the market appears to be showing some trading stability at these current high prices, based on backwardation. From our Sept 6 entry - ("in a balanced market, 3 month prices would be selling at a little higher than cash prices, to cover storage fees. Right now, the cash premium is higher than 3 month. But if you will notice the difference between yesterday and Monday's official closing, while 3 month cost moved up a little, the cash premium fell, thus the "spread" is growing less. The spread over these two days has fallen from a $1.41/lb difference to $.90/lb. Back on August 22nd, the date of the most recent record high, the spread was $2.30/lb. I wouldn't make any long term plans based on this, but it makes the next few weeks worth watching. ") Yesterday, backwardation was $.23/lb.
* Radio New Zealand reports the six week old CSTNC strike in New Caledonia continues with no new developments. In a Les Nouvelles article, SLN reportedly states it losses have so far been $4.5 billion, during the 40 day old strike. Sylvia Nea has apparently asked SLN for a meeting, and SLN has advised him they would meet Monday, but only if the incident's of sabotage and blockage against Thio discontinue immediately. Yesterday, the loading of an ore tanker had to be stopped, when a water pipe was intentionally damaged.
* Yesterday's official closing - cash - $14.88/lb - 3 month buyer - $14.65/lb
* Today's beginning LME nickel inventory - minus 216 tons = 6,684 tons

tricha
23-11-2006, 10:45 PM
The tills are clanging, IGO, MCR, SMY, JBM, MRE and a few other Nickel producers are in the money, 2\3 of the quarter gone, Nickel averaging over $40,000 a ton OZ so far and nothing to suggest any change. ( last year, this quarter averaging about $17,000, a slight difference)

Nearly balanced, could have fooled me. This is close to zero and at this time of the year we should be seeing a significant gain in LME tons.
So $25 a lb nickel should not be discounted early next year.

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
( November 23 )
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 683875 -350
Copper 159050 +80
Nickel 6480 +150
Lead 45350 +400
Zinc 87925 -1025

Cheers [}:)]
.................................................. .....................

23 November 2006

[b]World nickel market almost balanced in January-September – WBMSSource: Hoovers



See also
Nickel Board
Nickel CatalogThe global nickel market was almost balanced during the first nine months of 2006, recording a small 93 metric ton deficit, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

Mine production was at 1.032 million tons, up 5.4% on the same period last year, the WBMS said.

Refined production was fractionally above the comparable total for 2005 with increases in European and Canadian output and the re-emergence of the Philippines as a producer more than offset by lost production in Oceania.

World demand was 65,000 tons higher than in the first nine months of last year, the WBMS said.

In September, world production stood at 105,400 tons while demand totaled 125,900 tons.
.................................................. ....................

tricha
24-11-2006, 10:36 AM
Nickel Advances to Highest in 19 Years on London Metal Exchange

By Saijel Kishan and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose to its highest in at least 19 years in London after a report showed stockpiles may decline, reducing supply of the metal used in stainless steel. Zinc was among other metals that also advanced.

Inventory monitored by the LME booked and scheduled for future delivery to buyers, known as canceled warrants, rose 330 metric tons, or 29 percent, to 1,560 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report.

``Canceled warrants have risen, which have been beneficial to the market,'' said David Thurtell, a London-based metals analyst at BNP Paribas. ``Liquidity is thin because of the holidays in Japan and the U.S.''

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME gained $1,600, or 5.2 percent, to $32,750 a ton, the highest since at least 1987, and $125 more than the previous 19-year high set on Oct. 20. Nickel traded at that level as of 3:50 p.m. local time.

LME nickel inventory dropped 150 tons to 6,480 tons, the exchange said today. The stocks have slumped 70 percent in the past year. Demand will beat supply by 40,000 tons in 2006, Societe Generale forecast earlier this month.

Consumption of nickel grew this year in line with global stainless steel production. Stainless-steel makers may increase output 14 percent this year to 27.8 million tons, the International Stainless Steel Forum said last month.

sparrow
25-11-2006, 07:32 AM
quote:Nickel Advances to Highest in 19 Years on London Metal Exchange

AGAIN last night

tricha
26-11-2006, 11:25 PM
Yep Sparrow, we should be in for a re-rating of these companies on Monday

Why a Nickel is worth more than a Dime [?] Theres basically no Nickel left!

Nickel November 24,12:07
Bid/Ask 15.4826 - 15.5733
Change +0.6267 +4.22%
Low/High 14.8105 - 15.5960

tricha
27-11-2006, 11:57 PM
Nickel hits new record, others metals subdued
Mon Nov 27, 2006 6:16am ET
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advertisement Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints [-] Text [+] By Clare Black

LONDON (Reuters) - Nickel notched up a fresh high for the third straight session on Monday on the London Metal Exchange as low visible stocks and supply glitches stoked speculator interest in the metal.

Other metals were little changed as traders waited to see how New York would react after Thanksgiving holidays that shut the market for two days last week.

Nickel prices <MNI3> peaked at $34,100 a ton earlier, retreating to $33,500/600 a ton by 1026 GMT, versus Friday's late indicated level of $33,450/33,500.

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"Stocks are up a bit, which took it back off the highs. But inventories overall are extremely low and there are various problems with production," one dealer said. "It's probably getting a bit overcooked, but nickel can do that."

LME stocks of the metal used mainly to make stainless steel rose on Monday by 588 tonnes to 6,942 -- but nearly 30 percent of that total was unavailable to the market.

Roy Carson of LME brokers Triland Metals noted steady consumer demand in his weekly report, but said it was far from the heated level when nickel was hitting highs a few weeks ago.

"The suspicion has to be that this new upward break would appear to be a primarily a technical affair," he said.

"Still arguing with the price has proved an expensive lesson for shorts this year." Nickel has risen by almost 150 percent since the start of year, boosted by predictions of tight global supply and strong demand, particularly from the Chinese stainless steel industry.

Production at Inco's (N.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) big Goro nickel project in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia is now expected to start later than scheduled, at the end of 2008.

The project, expected to produce 60,000 tonnes of nickel a year at full capacity, has been hit by labor unrest, vandalism and most recently a court ruling from a Paris tribunal which may stop the firm clearing land in an area earmarked as a residue storage facility.

Also in New Caledonia, France's Eramet (ERMT.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) nickel is still operating below capacity due to a strike.

tricha
01-12-2006, 09:53 PM
Another great day for Nickel stocks against the ASX.!

Wow, no change in the LME stock level, looking at the 5 year trend we should be ramping the LME stock level up.
So if users of Nickel are holding back buying because the price might drop, they are going to be out of luck. Not that there is much for sale anyway.
Hence my reasoning behind $25 a pound nickel next year.


London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
( December 1 )
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 678650 -1425
Copper 156725 +375
Nickel 6066 -660
Lead 43150 -650
Zinc 85200 -600
Charts

tricha
01-12-2006, 11:23 PM
At 7:30 am CST, indications were nickel was selling up at $.44/lb (nearly 1/3 of LME stored nickel is cancelled warrants, with news in last few days that two mega mines, Goro and Ravensthorpe, expected to start producing nickel next year, won't until at least 2008, is making traders nervous. This will cause forecast deficits next year to widen.)

How can the Nickel Deficit widen [?][?][?] When there is no nickel.

Basis of supply versus demand = the price has to go up!

tricha
02-12-2006, 12:12 AM
Nickel Rises to a 19-Year High in London as Inventory Plunges

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel advanced to a 19-year high in London as inventory of the metal used in stainless steel dropped the most in seven weeks.

Stockpiles of nickel tracked by the London Metal Exchange fell 9.8 percent to 6,066 tons, the exchange said today. That's the largest one-day decline since Oct. 13. Supplies may not meet demand before the ``end'' of the decade, said Xstrata Plc, which bought Canadian nickel producer Falconbridge Ltd. in September.

``The challenge of nickel is, how much of this is already in the current price?'' said Jon Bergtheil, head of global metals strategy at JPMorgan Securities Ltd. in London.

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME fell $150, or 0.4 percent, to $33,800 a ton as of 10:49 a.m. in London, after earlier gaining as much as $350, or 1 percent, to $34,300, the highest since at least 1987. That beats the previous high set on Nov. 27 by $200.

Nickel has more than doubled this year, driven by expanding Chinese demand and a lack of new production capacity, said David Rae, vice president of sales and marketing at Zug, Switzerland- based Xstrata's nickel unit, in a Nov. 30 presentation. He expects a supply shortage to continue through this decade.

``Under such conditions the nickel price can be expected to remain well above long-term averages,'' Rae said. Nickel has averaged $8,228 a ton since 1987.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable investment bank in Wall Street history, forecast nickel for immediate delivery will average $25,000 next year, 33 percent more than its previous estimate. The global supply shortfall will be 20,000 tons this year, the bank said in a report released today.

Among LME-traded metals, copper dropped $75, or 1 percent, to $7,005 a ton and aluminum was unchanged at $2,740 a ton. Lead gained $12, or 0.7 percent, to $1,675 a ton and tin rose $50 to $10,500 a ton. Zinc lost $40 to $4,335 a ton.

To contact the reporter on the story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: December 1, 2006 06:03 EST

tricha
06-12-2006, 12:47 AM
Exactly whats in store for 2007, I guess we will just have to wait, well maybe not bought more AGM today in anticipation.

2007 - what is in store? (For the purchasing agent wondering where the stainless market will go in 2007)
This article is meant to be informative and in no way a forecast of what we think prices will do. In fact, by constantly monitoring the "experts", it has become obvious to anyone that follows the market, that what we have witnessed over the past few years is unprecedented in history, and therefore, completely unpredictable. Four years ago, China was not in the top 3 of the world's stainless steel producing nations. By the end of this year, it may become the world's largest. In 2002, it became the world's largest consumer of stainless steel, after 10 consecutive years of 17% growth.

In 304 stainless steel, nickel makes up 8% of the total raw material ingredients, but due to its cost, makes up to 60% of the raw material cost - in a normal market. If you want to know where stainless prices are going, watch the price of nickel. Nickel has gone from $3.00/lb in 2002 to an average of $6.69/lb last year to current prices in the range of $14-15/lb. So why the climb? Simply put, worldwide producers of nickel were caught off guard by the demand in China, coming alongside a worldwide boom in stainless steel demand. Much of the nickel used in stainless comes from scrap and after three years of record prices, surplus scrap has long since disappeared. Opening a new nickel mine to take care of this increased demand is about a 10 year project, from discovery to production. And all worldwide producers are currently making as much nickel as they possibly can to take advantage of record prices. Supply is so tight that the slightest news of disruption can cause an increase in the market - which is highly speculative and has become driven by fund market investments. Just this last week, two mega mines being built in Australia and New Caledonia announced cost overruns of a billion dollars each, and more importantly to consumers, delays of potential production to at least 2008. That leaves 2007 as another potentially tough year for prices. Any labor strikes, any emergency shut-down's, any disruption of any kind, will mean bad news for those waiting for prices to come down.

The one factor hanging over the entire story, is how much of the current trading price is due to market fundamentals, and how much of it is due to speculative market forces. Nickel inventories are lower than they were this time last year, and in many parts of the world, stainless steel producers are running flat out. But in reality, there really is no shortage of nickel. If you need it, you can find it. It is entirely realistic to see the world in the same shape as it is now, and prices trading for double what they were in 2002 - in the $6/lb range. But current prices are over double that range.

Trading is like climbing a mountain. The higher you go, the harder it is to breathe. On a mountain this is caused by lack of oxygen. In trading, it is more a lack of risk tolerance, based on a past experience of getting burned. Will the market forces stay bullish, or turn bearish on you, and how much are investors willing to gamble on their hunch? What no one knows yet, and only time will tell us, is where on this particular mountain we are. Are we near the peak? Or is there still more mountain to climb? Stay tuned.

OneUp
06-12-2006, 10:06 PM
hi tricha,

thanks for all the informative articles.:)

tricha
07-12-2006, 10:46 PM
All Nickel news sounds repetitive, but hey, I'm not complaining. It's going to be one way traffic for a while yet.

Around the Markets: A boom for nickel minersBloomberg NewsPublished: December 6, 2006

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MELBOURNE>en<>res<: Shares of nickel miners in Australia, the world's second- largest producer of the metal, may keep rising even as the stocks sell by one measure for twice as much as those of integrated mining companies.

The Chinese demand for cutlery, microwaves and skyscrapers is straining supplies of the metal used to make stainless steel, sending prices on the London Metal Exchange to at least a 19-year high Tuesday. A shortage of nickel will persist until 2009, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs JBWere.

Shares of Minara Resources, Mincor Resources, Sally Malay Mining and Mirabela Nickel have soared 190 percent or more this year, while nickel is up 154 percent. Shares are expected to keep climbing on nickel demand even as China tries to cool business investment and deter factory expansion, said Paul Xiradis, a fund manager at Ausbil Dexia.

"The view in the market is that nickel prices will come back substantially, but prices are firming and rising," said Xiradis. "The stock has performed very well, and it could move higher if earnings better expectations, and all indications suggest it will be the case."

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Minara's profit in 2007 may be 30 percent higher than analysts predict, he said.

Minara shares have surged 237 percent this year, Mincor has gained 247 percent, Sally Malay is up 226 percent and Mirabela is 189 percent higher. The S&P/Australian Stock Exchange 200 Resources index, which tracks 41 mining companies, has gained 16 percent.

As measured by net present value, nickel stocks are expensive compared with metals companies like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group, respectively the world's largest and third-largest miners, said Alex Passmore, head of research at Patersons Securities, in Perth.

Nickel stocks trade for at least double their net present value, said Passmore, who recommends investors sell Minara shares on expectations it would not meet production targets. Net present value is a calculation of the current value of expected cash flows based on, among other things, long-term forecasts of metals prices. Minara share price of 6.34 Australian dollars, or $4.98, exceeds its base net present value of 1.86 dollars, and Jubilee Mines' 14.23 dollars stock is double its base value of 7.24 dollars, he said.

BHP and Rio are trading at between 3 percent and 4 percent higher than their net present value, said Mark Pervan, head of research at Daiwa Securities SMBC, in Melbourne.

"Some of the pure plays, like Jubilee, they're good companies, but they have had very strong share price runs compared with, say, BHP Billiton," said Shaun Giacomo, a fund manager at SG Asset Management in Singapore.

Shares of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are up 17 percent and 13 percent this year, respectively.

Still, Chinese nickel consumption has almost tripled in five years, analysts led by Malcolm Southwood at Goldman Sachs JBWere wrote in a report Oct. 31.

The world's fastest growing major economy may produce a third more stainless steel next year, the analysts in Melbourne wrote. Makers of stainless steel consume two-thirds of the world's nickel.

Mincor and Sally Malay may rise by as much as 30 percent over the next 12 months, said Peter Arden, an analyst at Intersuisse in Melbourne. Jubilee, the fifth-largest Australian nickel producer, might rise another 20 percent, said Gavin Wend

tricha
14-12-2006, 12:05 AM
Nickel Gains, Snapping 2 Days of Losses, as Demand Beats Output

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel gained in London, snapping two straight days of losses, as consumers bought the metal used in stainless steel amid forecasts of a production shortfall.

Use will exceed output by 57,000 metric tons this year and in 2007, BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, said Dec. 11. Supply has dropped after Eramet SA, operator of the world's largest ferronickel smelter, cut output in September due to a strike on the Pacific island of New Caledonia.

Nickel for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange gained $300, or 0.9 percent, to $33,100 a ton as of 10:17 a.m. local time. The metal dropped 3.5 percent to $32,800 yesterday, its biggest one-day decline in more than four weeks.

``Demand for nickel remains quite strong and consumers were buying at prices below $33,000,'' David Thurtell, a London-based analyst at BNP Paribas in London, said by phone.

The metal has more than doubled this year and traded at a record $34,501 on Dec. 5. The rally is partly due to supply disruptions. Paris-based Eramet has lost 50 tons of metal a day since miners in New Caledonia started their protest on Sept. 25 to demand more benefits. The situation hasn't improved, Eramet spokesman Phillippe Joly said yesterday by phone from Paris.

Supplies will be reduced further when Melbourne-based BHP Billiton shuts its Kwinana nickel refinery in Australia for 21 days in the first quarter of 2007. Output in 2007 will drop to around 60,000 tons, from 62,000 tons this year, the company said yesterday.

Among other LME-traded metals, copper dropped $60 to $6,790 a ton and aluminum gained $12 at $2,819. Lead lost $40 to $1,690, tin advanced $145 to $10,970 and zinc declined $40 to $4,360.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: December 13, 2006 05:28 EST

Huang Chung
24-12-2006, 12:35 PM
My very first post on Sharetrader!

One nickel stock that hasn't seened to really capture the imagination of investors is Western Areas (WSA). Even on Sharetrader, MCR and AGM seem to have a much greater following. Yet, to my way of thinking, WSA's Flying Fox operation must be one of the best virtually unexploited nickel deposits in the country. Granted, some of the highest grades are found very deep. On the plus side, they have progressed their decline to the point where they have commenced limited production. Also, the mineralised zone might actually cross their tenement boundary with Kagara Zinc at depth. If this was the case, you would think that there would be more than a remote possibility of KZL wanting to get hold of WSA's decline, rather than have to develop their own.

I can see all these possibilities for WSA, yet I don't currently own them. In fact, I recently sold out, frustrated at the general lack of interest in the Flying Fox story. Maybe my expectations were too high, or maybe I should have stuck to my convictions and held, but there's always that nagging feeling that you've misread the situation somehow.

I'd be interested to hear anyone else's views on Western Areas.

tricha
25-12-2006, 02:20 AM
To Huang Chung - "My very first post on Sharetrader!"

One nickel stock that hasn't seened to really capture the imagination of investors is Western Areas (WSA).

All I can say is, SMY, MCR, AGM, WSA should all double 2007, The rest [?]

Why [?] Stocks of Nickel are nearly zero and we should see $25 a ilb nickel early 2007.

WSA has truely awesome potential. But I'm sticking to MCR, proven management, like IGO and MRE.

Happy hunting to all, Cheers;)[}:)]

kline
25-12-2006, 10:47 AM
The reason the Market doesn't fully appreciate Mincor's value is the relative small resource at this stage, with enough Ni to explore for 3-4 years.Hoewever, through their exploration program, I'm sure they will put some more resource under their belt and the market will eventually catch up on value.

Look out for the junior explorer MLM,backed up by KZL, with a mineral resource in excess of 200,000 t of Ni and a cheap Ni heap leach processing technique.

tricha
26-12-2006, 08:58 PM
Got your Nickel yet, 2007 the year Nickel is going to shine.

Wow, end the the year and we are pumping, $40,000 a ton average price! Profit in the rang of 30 to 40% up and above the last quarter for many of the producing Nickel producers, welcome aboard WSA as a producer!

Free Base Metals newsletter
22 December 2006

LME nickel ends 4% higher, copper downSource: Hoovers



See also
Base Metals Board
Base Metals CatalogLondon Metal Exchange nickel took the spotlight ahead of the long weekend to jump nearly 4% driven by bargain-hunting and year-end positioning Friday, with analysts expecting "holiday-thin" trading next week.

Three-month nickel held onto morning gains to rise nearly 4% on the previous PM kerb to a Friday PM kerb of $33,400/ton.

Nickel's strength Friday is driven by bargain-hunting and year-end buying, said Michael Skinner of Standard Bank, with quiet pre-holiday trading exacerbating the gains.

Ongoing labor problems at projects in New Caledonia and delays to BHP Billiton's Ravensthorpe project as well as a decrease in nickel stocks Friday morning have helped to support the market. According to the LME, nickel stocks fell 258 metric tons to 7,092 tons.

One trader said it is unlikely that nickel will trade below $30,000/ton in the near term as the 100-day moving average is now at $30,030/ton.

tricha
27-12-2006, 12:56 AM
Uranium and zinc top investor picks for 2007 and silver and nickel to benefit too
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '26-DEC-06 11:26' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006



RENO, NV (Mineweb.com) --Scotiabank Vice President, Industry and Commodity Market Research Patricia Mohr has forecast uranium and zinc as her top picks for investors in 2007, with precious metals, particularly silver, expected to benefit from further weakness in the U.S. dollar.

In her recently published analysis, Mohr said uranium was the third-best performing commodity this year “and will likely be the top performer in 2007.” She forecast that spot uranium prices are expected to average US$80 a pound in 2008, possibly ending 2007 close to $90.

“The current upswing in uranium prices represents a ‘secular’ transformational change in global energy markets—related partly to a shift by utilities from high-priced fossil fuels—rather than a ‘cyclical’ upswing,” Mohr asserted. “Nuclear energy is used for ‘base load’ electricity generation and will be little affected by an expected modest slowdown in global growth in 2007 (4.7% down from 5.2% in 2006), using ‘purchasing power parity’ estimates.”

Mohr noted that international utilities are currently seeking 60 million pounds of term commitments from miners, although U.S. utilities have built up some inventory. “While exploration activity has surged for uranium—across Canada, Australia, Africa and in Kazakhstan—there has been little improvement in mine production,” she said, explaining that a 10-year lag between deposit discovery and new mine development is typical. While higher prices have encouraged the reactivation of some mines and increased production at others, actual mine output probably dropped this year, Mohr suggested, noting the technical difficulties of Australia’s Olympic Dam and the fact that the McArthur River expansion in northern Saskatchewan has yet to receive regulatory approval.

Mohr forecast that mine production gains will be limited next year. The woes of Cigar Lake compound the supply problem because it would have been “the first big increase in global supply in many years (ramping up to 18 million pounds).”

BASE METAL SHIFTS
Within base metals, Mohr suggested that leadership has shifted from copper to zinc and nickel, and to a lesser extent, lead. “The correction in U.S. housing activity and Big Three auto assemblies is taking a toll on U.S. copper demand—with most of the recent increase in LME inventories occurring in U.S. warehouses.”

Nevertheless, Mohr asserted that the U.S. corrections “had only a limited impact on overall zinc demand. China’s share of global zinc consumption is 2.6 times bigger than that of the United States, limiting the negative fallout on zinc.” She also noted that strong U.S. non-residential construction is more zinc-intensive than is home-building.

With global zinc consumption surpassing supplies, Mohr claimed that “zinc is likely to move even higher in the first half of 2007, before significant mine expansion begins to trim prices in late 2007 and 2008.”

Meanwhile, Mohr’s analysis revealed that as LME nickel prices surged to a record high this month, China’s “enormous growth in stainless steel production is likely to continued in 2007 (up a projected 35%).” Of the 32 commodities covered in Scotiabank’s commodity index, “nickel was the top performing commodity in 2006—climbing an extraordinary 159% over the past year.” Mohr forecast a “supercycle is expected in nickel, with prices staying strong through 2008.”

SEC
02-01-2007, 01:55 PM
Since mid November, MIR has been aggressively selling off IGO to the point where its forward PE has reduced from 10 to 6.5 and is now comparable to that reached in the June sell-off. Looking at how the other nico's have recovered since mid November I reckon MIR's sell-off has suppressed IGO's price by at least 20%. In IGO I see an action replay of how AMP suppressed MCR's price a year ago and have topped up today accordingly.

SEC

Lizard
02-01-2007, 02:49 PM
It finally hit my target buy price for a trade today too SEC.

MadDoc
02-01-2007, 08:40 PM
AFR today 'implied' every other metal but Nickel may be due to a re-rating. Go the Ni

Disc hold MCR!

Interested in views as to whether this might be a genuine takeover target due to no debt & lots of cash - who might be the buyer? Private equity? Is it too small?

SEC
03-01-2007, 08:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

It finally hit my target buy price for a trade today too SEC.


Looks like it hit a director's buy target too. It's pretty rare for directors of mining companies to be buying their own stock so far into this commodities boom.

SEC

tricha
04-01-2007, 01:44 AM
imm, the higher thr grade stainless the better the corrosion
properties, in most cases.

Bring it on, no Nickel Stocks![}:)]

http://www.euro-inox.org/e/map/other/video/video.html

Ok, I'm a addicted Nickel advocate.

Enough said

Cheers [B)][}:)]

tricha
05-01-2007, 09:44 AM
$43,500 a ton OZ, worth its Weight in Gold, Profits coming out in a few weeks and they will be out there! ( only worth about $18,000 a ton OZ this time last year )
.................................................. ..................

The market does not like to hear of any potential supply disruptions to the nickel supply chain. While Sherritt's Moa Bay operations shut down for heavy rain last month, the word didn't reach the market until after operations resumed, and the market did not react. Today's news that Australia's main producers of nickel had to shut down for similar reasons, on top of the news from Indonesia and Canada, spooked the market and spurred some fund interest. LME inventories started 2006 at 35,742 tonnes, fell below 10,000 tonnes on July 4th, and have basically fought to stay in the 4 - 7000 tonne range ever since. While the other metals fell, nickel trading on the London Metal Exchange ended the day at $15.49/lb ($34,150/tonne)

tricha
05-01-2007, 07:52 PM
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#lmestocks_5years

It's all set for another great year of Nickel, worth its weight in gold! (The nickel companies will be)

Analizing the trend, not that I'm a chartist, nickel stocks if true to form should peak in the next month, followed by a rapid decline.....

Only theres a huge issue with this decline, there will not be any decline as there basically no nickel stocks. So the law of business should mean, the price has to go up considerable.[:p]

Which means if I get this one right, I'll be semi-retired before
Christmas.

If I get it wrong, I guess I'll just have to work longer.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

wns
08-01-2007, 06:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

Since mid November, MIR has been aggressively selling off IGO to the point where its forward PE has reduced from 10 to 6.5 and is now comparable to that reached in the June sell-off. Looking at how the other nico's have recovered since mid November I reckon MIR's sell-off has suppressed IGO's price by at least 20%. In IGO I see an action replay of how AMP suppressed MCR's price a year ago and have topped up today accordingly.

SEC


I wonder if its MIR who are selling down their stake in MCR?

From memory MIR bought a sizeable holding and then sold part of it a few months later. So maybe they are selling some more??

If MCR goes down much further I might top up.

nelehdine
11-01-2007, 05:24 PM
Another horror performance from IGO today .... really worried that they are having some major problems at the mine, can't understand why people would sell so aggressively when Nickel was up $1.25/lb last night

Nervous ... very nervous !!

David Hardman
11-01-2007, 05:52 PM
Unlikely to be a major problem at the mine given a director bought just last week. (smallish parcel)

I'll be looking to enter IGO if it gets much lower.

That said I'm very long in MCR (got more today) and also in AGM.

tricha
11-01-2007, 11:34 PM
Talk about Sporadic -Hence the greed and fear Sec was talking about.

Nickel Rises for a Second Day in London as Stockpiles Dwindle

By Brett Foley

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose for a second day on the London Metal Exchange, extending a gain yesterday that was the biggest in more than two years, on speculation stockpiles won't be sufficient to meet demand.

Inventories tracked by the LME have fallen 82 percent in the past 12 months. Stockpiles dropped a further 156 metric tons to 6,300 tons today, their third consecutive daily decline, the exchange said in a report. That's equivalent to less than two days of global consumption of the metal.

``Nickel is among the tightest of the metals due to the relatively low stockpiles,'' said John Kemp, a London-based analyst at Sempra Metals Ltd., one of 11 companies to trade on the floor of the LME.

Nickel for delivery in three months gained $1,100, or 3.4 percent, to $33,600 a ton as of 9 a.m. London time.

Nickel, used in stainless-steel production, gained 7.4 percent yesterday, its biggest one-day gain since Dec. 20, 2004. Before yesterday, nickel had fallen 7 percent this month, after more than doubling last year.

Among other industrial metals traded on the LME, copper rose $1, or 0.2 percent, to $5,880 and zinc increased $20 to $3,760 a ton. Lead rose $5 to $1,605 and tin gained $175 to $10,625. Aluminum dropped $12 to $2,698.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at Bfoley8@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: January 11, 2007 04:19 EST

Sid
12-01-2007, 08:32 PM
IGO is about to move into the ASX200.

Huang Chung
13-01-2007, 12:20 AM
According to the Kitco website, Ni Warehouse stockpiles today are down 384 tonnes to 5916 tonnes.

steve fleming
13-01-2007, 10:11 AM
from miningnews.net

Kambalda miners still a force

Thursday, 11 January 2007
Paul Garvey

PATERSONS has maintained its Buy recommendations on two Western Australian nickel miners and upgraded its call on a third, reflecting a continued faith in the outlook for the stainless steel additive.


Patersons analyst Levi Spry maintained his Buy recommendation on Kambalda region nickel miner Mincor resources, saying the company's recent acquisitions and exploration success at the Mariners and Carnilya Hill deposits were yet to be factored in to the company's share price.

And news flow from Sally Malay Mining's Copernicus and Lanfranchi joint ventures is likely to act as a catalyst in improving that company's share price, with Spry also rating the company a Buy.

"Sally Malay will increase its resource base, through addition of material from underground and through more positive results from Sally Malay western extensions (though these will be low grade) and continued Lanfranchi exploration," Spry said.

He has upgraded his recommendation on Independence Group, which operates the Long nickel mine near Kambalda, to Hold following recent retreats from the share price high that prompted Spry to call the stock a Sell.

Spry said Independence's involvement in the hotly anticipated Tropicana gold discovery in Western Australia meant the company was now considered a nickel and gold stock, rather than a pure nickel play.

"We believe almost half of [Independence's] current market capitalisation is being attributed to its 30% share of the Tropicana JV," he said.

He added that while Long was maturing, it still remained the lowest unit cost producer of the Kambalda miners, due to its high-grade ore body.

"Although mining conditions are becoming more difficult as long gets deeper, ground stress increased and mining activities are spread wider, Independence's head grade means it will have a much lower unit cost for some time yet," Spry said.

Spry's positive outlook for nickel remains, despite nickel rising to well over $US30,000 per tonne in recent times.

"New supply from large laterite projects such as Goro (CVRD/Inco) and Ravensthorpe (BHP Billiton) is yet to impact the nickel market, as these projects continue to experience delays (and large capital overruns)," Spry said in a research report.

"Demand for nickel remains strong, with a net deficit in supply of 13,000 tonnes expected in calendar 2007.

"The high unit-cost nickel sulphide producers of the Kambalda region are well placed to take advantage of these record high nickel price levels."

Huang Chung
15-01-2007, 09:23 PM
LME warehouse stocks down another 240 tonnes to 5,676 tonnes.

SEC
15-01-2007, 10:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

I reckon MIR's sell-off has suppressed IGO's price by at least 20%.


What a classic example of an incompetent and flawed sell strategy. MIR's aggressive selling has wiped at least $1 off IGO's fair value. MIR must have had some inkling that IGO was a potential S&P ASX200 candidate in the near future, and if their fund managers had half a brain between them they would have held off selling until IGO's inclusion. Then it could have sold a few million shares into a buyers market - at around $5. But instead they decided on a sell-at-any-cost strategy on a relatively illiquid stock that will have effectively cost them millions.

SEC

tricha
15-01-2007, 11:05 PM
Totally agree with you SEC.

I wrote this a day or two ago.

These institutions have a huge effect on what happens to Mincor and with the stroke of a button, it can cause a huge plunge, just like when AMP dumped a year back (twice)

Unfortunately there is no major mining company interested in them, trying to maintain a controlling interest (just like IGO is in the same boat), the reason I take it is they are tied down by BHP offtake agreement.

tricha
16-01-2007, 01:23 AM
Bring it on, no Nickel![:p]

Nickel Advances in London on Falling Stockpiles, Supply Delays

By Brett Foley

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose on the London Metal Exchange on speculation dwindling stockpiles and supply disruptions will create a shortage of the metal.

Inventories tracked by the LME fell by 240 tons to 5,676 tons, the exchange said in a daily report today. LME-monitored stockpiles have slid 82 percent in the past 12 months while delays to nickel projects proposed by BHP Billiton Ltd. and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's largest and second-largest mining companies respectively, have exacerbated shortages.

``Those supply concerns will remain this year and into 2008,'' said Roy Carson, a London-based analyst at Triland Metals Ltd, one of 11 companies authorized to trade on the LME's floor. ``How much that continues to affect the price will depend on demand.''

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME increased $605, or 1.9 percent, to $33,050 a metric ton as of 9:20 a.m. in London. The metal dropped 3.2 percent at the end of last week. Nickel, which is used in stainless steel, more than doubled last year and traded at a record $34,950 on Dec. 15.

BHP said on Nov. 30 that its Ravensthorpe nickel project in Australia would be delayed by as much as a year as costs increased 64 percent. Vale was ordered by a French court on Nov. 24 to stop construction at its $2.15 billion Goro mine on the Pacific island of New Caledonia until it received administrative licenses. Vale acquired Goro when it gained control of Canadian miner Inco Ltd. last year.

Deutsche Bank AG, Europe's biggest securities firm, raised its price forecasts for nickel, used in stainless steel, by 62 percent for 2007 to $14.28 a pound, and by 110 percent for 2008 to $14.06 a pound. Spot nickel prices averaged $10.96 a pound in London last year. The bank also increased its 2006 zinc forecast by 6.7 percent to $1.67 a pound.

Rising demand from Chinese stainless-steel makers and delays to the nickel projects of Vale and BHP means there will be a nickel deficit until 2009, the bank said in a Jan. 12 report.

Copper fell $55 on the LME to $5,694 a ton. LME-tracked inventories of the metal gained for a fifth day to 2,600 tons to 199,450 tons. Aluminum gained $11 to $2,706 and zinc increased $20 to to $3,790.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley at bfoley8@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: January 15, 2007 04:46 EST

Huang Chung
16-01-2007, 11:28 PM
LME warehouse stocks down again - now down to 5,406 tonnes. :)

By my reckoning, this is the sixth straight day of declining inventories. Can this continue [?][?]

tricha
19-01-2007, 12:49 AM
Have you got some, worth Moore than a dime!

Nickel Rises to a Record, Bolstering Gains Over Other Metals

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel, the only gainer this year on the London Metal Exchange, rose to a record for a second consecutive day on speculation that a labor dispute in Canada will cut supply of the metal used in stainless steel.

A union representing more than 1,000 workers at Xstrata Plc's nickel unit in Sudbury voted Jan. 16 for a strike if a new agreement isn't reached before Jan. 31. Stockpiles of nickel tracked by the LME have slumped 85 percent in the past year to the equivalent of less than two days of consumption.

The threatened strike ``added more risk to the already extremely tight market,'' Peter Richardson, chief metals economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Melbourne, said in a report.

Nickel for delivery in three months climbed $325, or 0.9 percent, to $35,825 a ton as of 10:34 a.m. in London. Earlier, it reached $35,975, beating yesterday's high by $275. The contract posted the largest gains among all LME-traded metals last year, and has added another 7.5 percent this year. Copper, nickel, tin, lead, aluminum and zinc have declined.

Nickel prices have risen sixfold since 2002 as global demand for stainless steel expanded. Global stainless-steel production probably rose 14 percent last year, U.K.-based industry consultant MEPS (International) Ltd. estimated last month.

Inco Ltd., now a unit of Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, was hit by a labor protest in Sudbury for three months from June 2003. Prices in December that year rose to the highest since May 1989 partly because of the production shortfall caused by the strike.

``With stocks still critically low, the chance of a strike in two weeks' time was enough to see sellers completely desert the market,'' said David Thurtell, an analyst at London-based BNP Paribas.

Housing Starts

U.S. inflation and housing data due today may hurt metals prices. The Labor Department may report consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in December, the most since July, according to the median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Housing starts fell to an annual rate of 1.565 million, the Commerce Department may report, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Persistent inflation combined with an economy struggling to weather the housing slump may prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady this quarter. Higher borrowing costs usually slow industry expansion, hurting demand for metals including copper and aluminum. Almost half of U.S. copper usage is in housing, according to Hamburg-based Norddeutsche Affinerie AG, Europe's largest copper refiner.

The consumer-price report and the housing data are due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

Other LME-traded metals gained today. Copper rose $85, or 1.5 percent, to $5,735 a ton, aluminum added $31.50, or 1.2 percent, to $2,710.50 and lead advanced $10.50 to $1,570. Tin increased $250 to $11,250 and zinc climbed $66 to $3,685 a ton.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 18, 2007 05:51 EST

tricha
19-01-2007, 01:37 AM
[:p][:p]IS THIS THE NEXT LEG UP, I CERTAINLY HOPE SO, FINALLY CLOSED ABOVE $16 A lb.

Just imagine 1,300,000,000 Chinese wanting their share of Nickel![:p]

Just Imagine 1lb each!:D

Nickel January 18,08:18
Bid/Ask 16.5909 - 16.6385
Change +0.1444 +0.88%
Low/High 16.2651 - 16.6960

tricha
19-01-2007, 07:34 PM
Nickel assuming precious metal status

(Friday, 19 January 2007)

NICKEL has become the first base metal to break through the $US1 per ounce barrier, with another gain overnight continuing its unprecedented run.
Full Story...

steve fleming
19-01-2007, 07:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by tricha

Nickel assuming precious metal status

(Friday, 19 January 2007)

NICKEL has become the first base metal to break through the $US1 per ounce barrier, with another gain overnight continuing its unprecedented run.
Full Story...


.....A vote overnight by workers at Xstrata's Sudbury nickel plant in Canada to approve a strike mandate continued to give nickel a helping hand overnight, with the spot price of the stainless steel additive ending the evening session on the London Metal Exchange at $US37,040 per tonne. Its high of $37,400 was equivalent to $1.06/oz.

Three-month prices rose to $35,305/t, at one stage reaching $35,975/t.

Only seven months ago, nickel was trading at just over $18,000/t.

Dwindling nickel stockpiles have been driving the metal's price surge. LME stockpiles now sit at 5316t, of which only 4400t – roughly a little more than one day's worth of global consumption – are currently available.

Numis Securities analyst John Meyer said the rise had pushed nickel into the "realms of precious metal pricing".

"It would appear that the market is keen to push up nickel prices at the moment, and the possible strike at Sudbury provides a good reason to do so," he said.

"Workers at Sudbury have a history of taking industrial action, having walked out before settling the last three contracts."

However, Meyer – who is forecasting an average nickel price for 2007 of $US22,000/t – said a number of looming developments could dampen the metal's recent performance.

"There is potential for a sharp correction in the nickel price if the market for stainless steel collapses through over-production," he said.

"Additionally there has been news that a four-month strike in New Caledonia at Eramet's mines has come to an end. Eramet is the operator of the world's largest ferro-nickel plant."

While smelting operations are not yet fully back up to speed, Meyer said, Eramet still expects a return to normal operations within days.

tricha
20-01-2007, 03:38 AM
Bring it on, $20 a lb [:p][:p]

Cheers [}:)]


[b]Nickel Heads for Largest Increase in 8 Weeks on Supply Concern

By Brett Foley and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose, heading for its biggest weekly gain in eight, on speculation that possible supply disruptions may further erode stockpiles.

Xstrata Plc's Sudbury unit in Canada and a labor union representing more than 1,000 of its workers are in talks to renew a labor agreement expiring Jan. 31. The union voted Jan. 16 to authorize a strike should an accord not be reached. Nickel stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange are now equal to less than two days of global demand.

``Supply uncertainties persist and there is potential that they put further upward pressure on prices,'' Michael Widmer, director of research at Calyon in London, said today in a report. Calyon is a member of the London Metal Exchange.

Nickel for delivery in three months gained $295, or 0.8 percent, to $35,695 a metric ton as of 2:22 p.m. in London. A close at that price would mean a weekly gain of 9.4 percent, the most since the week ended Nov. 24.

Nickel, used in stainless steel, is the only gainer among LME-traded metals this year and reached a record $36,050 yesterday. Demand exceeded supply by 80,000 tons in the 11 months to the end of November, Ware, England-based World Bureau of Metals Statistics said Jan. 17. LME-monitored stockpiles total 5,178 tons.

Talks at the Sudbury unit are ``progressing,'' though issues including job postings and vacation have yet to be addressed, Rick Grylls, a spokesman for the Canadian Auto Workers Union, said today by phone from Toronto.


To contact the reporters on this story: Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net ; Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 19, 2007 09:30 EST

tricha
20-01-2007, 04:57 AM
Another milestone BREACHED!

Yep, we have just passed through $47,000 a ton OZ, outstanding [}:)]

Nickel January 19,11:49
Bid/Ask 16.9765 - 17.0672
Change +0.4082 +2.46%
Low/High 16.5682 - 17.0672

anne2
20-01-2007, 02:27 PM
Nickel stocks are ready to take off. MCR, LIM, SMY and ALB all closed at their highest ever weekly closes. Most of these shares have been tracking sideways for over a month trying to work out if teh strong nickel prices were for real or not. MCR has been going sideways for 11 weeks. MCR is my favourite.


Cheers Anne

tricha
22-01-2007, 10:17 PM
Nickel Rises to Record on LME for Fourth Consecutive Session

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel, the only gainer this year on the London Metal Exchange, rose to a record for a fourth consecutive session on concern diminishing supply won't meet demand this year.

Stockpiles of nickel, used in stainless steel, fell 2.4 percent to 5,052 metric tons, the LME said today in a report. That's the lowest in three months. Usage will beat production by 3,600 tons this year, following a deficit of 23,300 ton in 2006, Deutsch Bank AG said in a Jan. 12 report.

``The metal is overbought but no one wants to sell it,'' said Andrew Silver, an analyst with Natexis Commodity Markets Ltd., one of 11 companies that trade on the LME floor. ``People are talking about next target of $40,000.''

Nickel for delivery in three months climbed $1,100, or 3.1 percent, to $37,200 a ton as of 9:10 a.m. in London. Earlier, the contract rose to $37,300 a ton, beating Jan. 19's high by $1,000.

Nickel has risen 12 percent this year, outpacing aluminum and copper, as stockpiles eroded and demand surged. Stainless-steel producers, which account for two-thirds of global nickel supply, probably increased output 14 percent last year, U.K.-based industry consultant MEPS (International) Ltd. estimated last month.

Labor talks at Xstrata Plc's Sudbury unit in Canada are a possible supply threat. A labor union representing more than 1,000 of Sudbury workers voted on Jan. 16 to authorize a strike should talks not result in a new contract by Jan. 31. Xstrata gained control over the Sudbury unit last year when it bought Inco Ltd., the world's second-largest nickel producer.

Among other LME-traded metals, copper gained $25 to $5,630 a ton, aluminum rose $13 to $2,730 and lead climbed $35 to $1,610. Tin jumped $11,625 a ton and zinc was $20 higher at $3,670.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: January 22, 2007 04:31 EST

Dazza
22-01-2007, 11:36 PM
fellas when does MCR report their quarterly?

seems like i missed the top up recently

oh well

tricha
23-01-2007, 09:20 PM
Hot, Hot, Red Hot!

China's Nickel Demand to Remain Strong Amidst High Prices

By David Harman
22 Jan 2007 at 08:51 AM EST


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's demand for nickel might not be hampered by high global prices, some analysts say.

"The high international nickel prices partly reflect high demand from the market, especially from China," said analyst Zhu Limin from Shanghai Securities.




China's Nickel imports increased by 7.6% to 86,908 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2006 compared to the same period of the previous year, statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission indicate. China accounts for more than 60% of the global demand for nickel.

Current global nickel production is about 1.3 million tonnes a year, with two-thirds of the metal being used in stainless steel production, 10% in electroplating, 20% in alloys and coins.

China's steel products output reached 425 million tonnes in the first 11 months of 2006, representing a 24.8% increase from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Analysts believed that China's stainless steel output will increase by one third this year from last year's 6 million metric tonnes, with production capacity to hit 10 million tonnes by the end of this year. About two thirds of the nickel was used to produce stainless steel in China.

"Nickel shortages and low stockpiles on the world market are pushing prices higher," said Zhu.

The nickel stockpile at the London Metals Exchange remained at a record low of 5,178 metric tonnes last Friday, amid annual global consumption of 1.4 million tonnes. The LME price is currently 37,300 per tonne.

"Domestic stainless steel prices rose in line with nickel prices, and the sales are still very good, but we will see," said an official from the sales department of Posco Zhang Jiagang Stainless Steel, a major stainless steel producer in China.

Commentary

Bolstered by China's steel industry, and the necessity to drive high-end finished product exports, demand for nickel will remain robust.

Over the longer term, watch to see whether global appetite for China's steel can be sustained.

© Interfax-China 2007

steve fleming
23-01-2007, 09:22 PM
[u]Nickel's day out </u>

Rebecca Lawson
Tuesday, 23 January 2007

BUYERS were again scrambling to get their share of the ever-dwindling nickel supply, with the spot price of the stainless steel additive again reaching new territory as the London Metal Exchange nickel inventory once more dipped to sit at just over a day's global consumption.


There's just no stopping the price of nickel at the moment, with a pending strike at a major nickel project in Canada and demand for the metal driving the spot price to $US39,800 per tonne, a gain of over $US2000 or 5.3%.

That rise came despite a reduction in the estimated amount of nickel on board the MSC Napoli vessel in England. It is now understood the ship, which ran aground over the weekend, was holding just 160t nickel, as opposed to earlier reports of at least 1000t.

The noose around nickel's global supplies is quickly tightening with the LME holding just over 5000t, compared with a minimum of 3500t of nickel needed for global consumption per day.

The high price and short supplies is good timing for nickel major Sally Malay Mining with drilling at its Lanfranchi joint venture intersecting attractive intercepts of 30.5m grading 4.5% nickel and 33m at 3.9% nickel.

Shares in the company surged to record its second all-time high in less than a month, reaching $2.90 before cooling to finish at $2.84. Previously, Sally Malay reached a high of $2.39 in late December 2006.

Allegiance Mining will also be basking in the dollars soon with mining starting at its Avebury project today, its shares gaining 2.5c (3.8%) to end the day at 68.5c, while Mirabela's new nickel discovery near its Santa Rita deposit in Brazil has seen the stock climb 9c (2.7%) to $3.43c.

Meanwhile, analyst ABN Amro has started its coverage of nickel developer Albidon with a Buy rating.

ABN Amro said Albidon's flagship $US65 million ($A82 million) Munali project in Zambia and its extensive suite of African tenements holds "potential for major success".

Investors appeared to take heed of the analyst's advice with over 365,000 Albidon shares trading today, its highest volume for the year.

However the flurry didn't do too much for the company's share price, which climbed 2c to reach an intraday high of $1.82 before cooling slightly to close unchanged at $1.80.

Contrary to the minimal movement in Albidon, several resource equities recorded fresh all-time highs today, with newly listed Stonehenge Metals leading the way, reaching a high of 44.5c before closing to 42c, a gain of 7.5c or 21.7%.

The newcomer's sudden increase came from positive sampling results of existing 6000-7000t tin stockpiles near its Granville East pit, which according to managing director Todd Hibberd represent a potential revenue source worth nearly $A1 million, not bad for a company that listed only a month ago.

Following closely behind Stonehenge was another newly listed resource stock, Eagle Eye Metals, which closed at its new all-time high of 31c, a climb of 5c or 19.2%.

News of the junior explorer picking up previous exploration data for its Waite Kauri nickel project in Western Australia provided the impetus for the share price hike. Studies of the historic information identified drill results including 37m at 0.83% nickel, 0.05% cobalt and 5.1% manganese.

Other resource stocks to reach all-time highs were another nickel play, Mincor Resources, whose shares peaked at $2.52 before settling at the end of the day at $2.50, and NGM Resources, which touched a high of 33c before dipping to finish at 32c.

steve fleming
24-01-2007, 08:56 PM
[u]No stopping nickel
</u>
Paul Garvey
Wednesday, 24 January 2007

NICKEL has smashed through the psychological $US40,000 per tonne barrier, with the metal's latest surge propelling a suite of Australian nickel miners and developers to fresh all-time highs.


During the evening session on the London Metal Exchange overnight, the spot price of nickel added $1200 or 3% to close at $41,000/t – the first time the metal has crossed that price threshold.

Three-month nickel was also up, gaining $500 or 1.3% to $37,800/t.

The spot price of nickel has gone up almost $10,000 since January 9, when the metal changed hands at $31,575/t.

Last night's gains came despite the LME's nickel inventory remaining steady, with the total tonnage under the LME's watch adding 12t or 0.2% to take the stockpile to 5064t. Daily global consumption of nickel is around 3500t.

The latest move in what appears to be the metal of the moment helped propel a bevy of local nickel equities to new highs.

Mincor Resources was up 6% to a new peak of $2.65, while fellow nickel miner Sally Malay Mining re-wrote its record book in moving to a high of $3.10 before retreating to $3.00, a gain of 5.6% since the opening of trade.

Meanwhile, advanced nickel plays Albidon and Mirabela Nickel also hit new all-time highs. Albidon, which also announced an exploration joint venture with Zinifex in Tunisia, hit $1.90, and Brazilian-focused Mirabela added 4.1% to sit at $3.58.

tricha
24-01-2007, 10:36 PM
High flying nickel price boosts producers
24th January 2007, 15:30 WST

Continuing supply concerns have pushed the price of nickel over the $US40,000-a-tonne barrier, a move that has helped several local producers to record share price highs.

The spot price of nickel moved three per cent higher overnight and hit $US41,000 per tonne ($US18.60 per pound) on the London Metal Exchange.

The spot price of nickel has added close to $10,000 since January 9 when the metal was fetching about $US31,575 per tonne.

Commonwealth Securities commodity analyst Tobin Gorey said the nickel price was being driven by ongoing supply concerns.

"Demand has been very strong, supply is not keeping pace with it, and nickel, more than most things, seems to have a few things going on," Mr Gorey said.

He said producers had trouble for various reasons, including the threat of industrial action, which could impede maximum production.

"The Sudbury facility (in Canada) is going through labour negotiations now and there could potentially be a strike at the end of the month if there is not a satisfactory result," he said.

"The other thing is, going forward, projects that are meant to have come on-stream this year are facing delays."

CVRD's Goro project in New Caledonia and BHP Billiton's Ravensthorpe project in Western Australia are two of the operations that have been delayed until 2008.

The price surge has help push Kimberley nickel producer Sally Malay Mining Ltd and Kambalda producer Mincor Resources Nl to fresh 12-month highs.

Sally Malay hit a high of $3.10 before settling at $2.90 and Mincor peaked at $2.66 before closing just short at $2.65.

Among other producers, LionOre Mining International Ltd added 49 cents to equal its record high of $14.89, Minara Resources Ltd gained 19 cents to $6.42 and Jubilee Mines NL put on 34 cents to $16.01.

Jubilee today announced a 53 per cent increase in resources at its Bannockburn project near Leonora in Western Australia to 33,697 tonnes.

"I think there is a real fear there that there might be an episode like late last year where people had trouble physically just getting hold of nickel," Mr Gorey said.

"Not only was it expensive but it was impossible to get.

"The mentality of the market has learnt from the experience of the last six to 12 months, where you have to buy first and ask questions later because it is no good being short.

"At some stage it will come back to earth with a big thump, but I would say it is pretty open ended at this stage where it could end up."

tricha
25-01-2007, 08:01 PM
Nickel price knows no bounds
Robin Bromby
January 25, 2007

NICKEL prices seem unstoppable with the spot price not only blasting through the $US40,000 a tonne level in one night but continuing on to a breathtaking $US41,000.
The latest sensational move by the nickel steamroller on Tuesday night added yet another 3 per cent daily rise.
It will need to move only another $US575/tonne to have put on $US10,000 in just over two weeks.

Commonwealth Bank commodity strategist Tobin Gorey said the market was now attuned to incredibly tight supply and expectations of production delays.

"That results in a very simple rule: buy first, ask questions later," he said, and investors did just that on the local market.

Jubilee Mines, which yesterday put out a new resource statement, was up 34c to $16.01. This company, the largest mid-tier nickel producer, has seen its share price double since last January.

Mincor Resources, which has been expanding mines and exploration acreage over the past year, added another 15c to $2.65.

Sally Malay rose 6c to $2.90. Allegiance Mining, which started operations this week at its new Avebury mine in Tasmania, put on 2c to 70.5c.

However, small but aggressive nickel producer/explorer Australian Mines missed the action, remaining unchanged on 8c.

And, apart from stocks at the London Metal Exchange hovering at about 5000 tonnes or one day's global usage, nickel now has another story: it's environmentally blessed.

Citigroup global commodity analyst Alan Heap said yesterday that, while strike threats at the huge Xstrata Sudbury complex - which supplies 15 per cent of world nickel - were causing the latest price rise, the metal's value would be underpinned in the longer term by its environmental sustainability.

What that means in plain English is that nickel is more conducive to being recycled than many other metals.

About 37 per cent of nickel used each year has been recycled, compared with 12 per cent of copper and 7 per cent of zinc.

The metal also extends the lives of buildings because of its resistance to corrosion. That's why Kuala Lumpur's famous twin towers and the Shanghai Hyatt are clad with stainless steel, the main use for nickel.

"Increasing emphasis on sustainability worldwide will ensure demand remains high for nickel," Mr Heap added. And even those still a long way from riding the nickel boom are finding this a heady time.

Junior AusQuest signed a contract this week for drilling at four nickel prospects in the Pilbara.

Managing director Graeme Drew said that while AusQuest was just starting to explore, the long-term outlook for nickel was encouraging.

"Forty thousand dollars a tonne is a pretty exciting time," he said.

tricha
27-01-2007, 12:39 AM
Food for Thought [8)]

Sounds like a red herring to me, why would companies produce surplus Stainless Steel Products and have 5 months of stock sitting in the shelves and take a huge loss if nickel were to plummet[?][?][?]
I thought manufactures worked on the just in time era, where they kept as little stock as possible.
Although I must admit Nickel is due for a correction, but stocks will need to increase 1st. Cheers [}:)]

[b]Merrill Lynch analysts warn that the honeymoon may soon be over for nickel
Turning to nickel first, Merrills suggests the market (and indeed their own analysts) will shortly need to upgrade nickel price forecasts once again, and subsequent mining company earnings. The upcoming reporting season should be a cracker for nickel miners.

However, the risk is that the nickel price will subsequently fall sharply, as it did in mid-2005, due to stainless steel destocking.

Last month Merrills warned that a destock would likely commence in the first quarter of 2007. Since then, the nickel price has risen a further 20% due to a lack of inventory, strikes, and general production problems. US stainless steel supplies now exceed six months, notes Merrills. Before the 2005 destock, supplies exceeded five months. Four months is the norm.

News from Europe is that while stainless steel demand has been strong, inventories are also building and demand growth is beginning to slow. The world's most voracious consumer of nickel – China – has driven the nickel price in 2006 but has now found a new source of lower grade ore out of the Philippines. This indicates the Chinese are definitely price sensitive, says Merrills.

These factors add up to a potentially sharp fall in the nickel price. However, the reality is that actual inventories of nickel metal are still low and declining and there remain supply disruptions and delays. This can offset the stainless steel destock. What to do?

Merrills suggests investors crystallise some gains in nickel stocks. There is a delicate balance, and one wouldn't want to be caught out either way.

sparrow
27-01-2007, 08:25 AM
There is no doubt the nickel price will correct one day, history proves that. But even if the price fell to US$15,000 a tonne, Mincor would still be a very profitable company. I remember MCR holders getting quite excited when the price got to $14,000 a couple of years ago.

Mr. Moore and his co-directors are not sitting on their hands - they are using a substantial portion of their windfall profits buying more prospects and spending on exploring for gold, copper, tungsten, zinc and lead, so that they will become a much more diversified company if and when the nickel price retreats.

My gut feeling is, however that this won't be for quite a while yet.

As for Mmerril Lynch, I wouldn't place any store in what they say. I think you will find that they were one of the brokerages heavily involved in corrupt practices in the US over the last few years, paying millions in fines and with some of their "advisors" spending time in jail?

Read more about, and rely on what independent experts in the metal industry say.

Cheers,
Sparrow

tricha
29-01-2007, 09:48 PM
Lets hope so Sparrow - "My gut feeling is, however that this won't be for quite a while yet."

Myself I'm trying to keep an open mind on situations, keep smelling the coffee;)

Replica of MCR, IGO, SMY, MRE etc to come [:p]

Jubilee 2nd-Quarter Sales More Than Double on Prices (Update2)

By Madelene Pearson

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Jubilee Mines NL, Australia's fifth- largest nickel producer, reported second-quarter sales more than doubled after prices for the metal soared.

The company had sales of A$163.5 million in the three months ended Dec. 31, Perth-based Jubilee said today in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange. That compares with sales of A$67.7 million a year earlier.

Prices for nickel, used in stainless steel making, have more than doubled in the past year and reached a record last week, stoked by demand from China and a shortfall in supply.

``The continuation of strong nickel prices throughout January to date should see us return our most successful financial half year on record,'' Jubilee said in the statement.

Shares of Jubilee rose 31 cents, or 1.9 percent, to A$16.54 on the exchange at the 4:10 p.m. close of trade in Sydney. The stock has more than doubled in the past year compared, with a 17 percent gain in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index.

Jubilee produced 15,324 dry metric tons of nickel concentrate in the quarter, the company said. That compares with output of 14,410 dry metric tons of nickel a year earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Madelene Pearson in Melbourne on mpearson1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 29, 2007 00:52 EST

SEC
30-01-2007, 10:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

What a classic example of an incompetent and flawed sell strategy. MIR's aggressive selling has wiped at least $1 off IGO's fair value.


I rest my case. A reckless sell strategy by both MIR and Barclays - a repeat offender when it comes to overselling (and overbuying).

IGO was just way way too cheap at $3.70 2 weeks ago. Good production report out of the way, projected 07 profit well ahead of consensus, even at $4.56 IGO still has to increase 20+% to catch up with its peers.

SEC

tricha
01-02-2007, 12:29 AM
Materials Outlook Improves Except Stainless—And That's Ugly
The slowdown in housing and manufacturing activity in the United States is having at least one positive effect: The costs of many materials used in foodservice equipment and supplies, including copper, aluminum, most plastics and building materials, have all declined or stabilized in the past few months.

But there's one big, unfortunate exception. Stainless steel, especially the 300 series steel widely used in food environments, has hit record levels. And the outlook throughout the year is for only minor improvements, according to forecasts from Purchasing magazine's quarterly research on transaction prices for key commodities.

Purchasing reports the average price of 304 stainless sheet, including a surcharge that is nearly two-thirds of the total now, reached $3,885 in the fourth quarter of 2006, well beyond the magazine's own pessimistic forecasts. And the forecast is for little or no relief until mid-year. The magazine expects no more than a 10% decline by the fourth quarter '07, to slightly above $3,500. (Many foodservice E&S companies, even large ones, pay more than these averages, which include many very large buyers in other industries.)

Tom Stundza, executive editor and a leading authority on metal prices, expressed surprise at the continuing runup. "I can't believe there are market fundamentals to support these prices. Show me where the end-use demand justifies them." He noted the price of nickel, the critical ingredient behind the price surge, "is off its peak." And he's also heard that leading U.S. service centers "are cutting back on stainless inventories."

Some of this lessening of demand comes from many users' switch to 200 and 400 series stainless, which contain less nickel and chromium, another element in stainless in relatively short supply. But sources within foodservice tell FER Fortnightly that the flight to 400 series alternatives has driven up those prices as well.

Stundza does believe the continuing slowing of larger stainless-consuming markets such as home appliances, depressed by the housing slowdown and higher interest rates, and general machinery markets, should continue to ease pressure in the second half of this year.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Section sponsored by Hotelex Shanghai, April 4-7, 2007
Manufacturers, Ops Switching From 300 Stainless?
With the seemingly never-ending price increases in the best grades of stainless steels, we wondered whether foodservice equipment and supplies manufacturers and their customers are exploring less expensive alternatives.

We spoke with three major manufacturers and fabricators and one large chain, and the answer is slowly, if at all.

But there's plenty of willingness to change among the manufacturers. "We're looking at any avenue to reduce the use of 300 series materials," said one manufacturer, who noted that 300 series stainless is widely used in components that are part of their products, as well as the equipment itself. "We just get whacked on it all, including freight surcharges."

All three manufacturers said acceptance from customers, particularly the largest and most prominent chains and consultants, is slow and grudging. "Our high-profile chains and consultants still demand 300 series and are very reluctant to discuss alternatives," said another manufacturer. "We do get a bit more of an open ear from some of the smaller chains, but they too are pretty slow to change. And even many mom and pop operators insist." He also noted that the flight to some grades of 200 and 400 series stainless has driven up the price of the best alternatives, too.

But the ongoing stainless price runups—three years and counting—and the impact on E&S prices have even some of the largest chains beginning to look at alternatives. "We're just in very early stages," said one large chain

sparrow
01-02-2007, 05:40 AM
This article one of the most comprehensive I have read onthe NICKEL situation:

---------------------------------------------------------------------


Price of Nickel Reflects Panic Due to Global Shortages

Date Published | Jan. 31, 2007


A sniffle in Indonesia, sneezes and coughs in Australia and New Caledonia and a possible full-blown case of the flu in Sudbury are all causing the price of nickel to explode reaching levels we never thought possible.

On Friday, the three month price of nickel hit another record high of $38,950 (US) a ton – $17.67 a pound – before closing at $38,100. The cash price hit about $40,500 or $18.74 a pound.

To date, the silvery-grey metal is up 17 percent this year and about 180 percent from the beginning of 2006. Nickel is now trading at a little over a dollar per ounce.

As of Tuesday morning the price has retreated a little from Friday’s record high but if there is a strike at Xstrata Nickel expect to see the metal hit $20 a pound at the very least.

Two weeks ago, a British container ship named the “MSC Napoli” ran aground on the south coast of England. It was rumoured to be carrying 1,000 tons of nickel causing the then, price to set record highs. The actual amount of nickel was a paltry 160 tons.

Neurotic responses to nickel supply problems.

Last week, the metal was setting price records practically every day on the possibility of a strike by Xstrata Nickel workers in Sudbury. The local Falconbridge smelter produces 63,000 tons of nickel in matte, only four percent of global production. That is how thinly stretched global nickel supplies are at the present time causing the markets to neurotically respond to every little supply difficulty.

Even if a miracle occurs and Xstrata Nickel settles with Local 598, and the price drops a little, the underlying issue is that supply cannot meet demand.

Decades of underinvestment in new mines, a shortage of skilled professionals, powerful environmental movements and enormous cost blowouts at two major existing projects are all coming together to slow down new production.

In November 2006, CVRD Inco announced that the New Caledonia Goro nickel laterite development would be delayed until late 2008 and the previously estimated cost of $2.15 billion had ballooned to $3 billion. This 60,000 tonnes-a-year project has experienced heated political opposition due to environmental concerns and vandalism on the construction site from a militant faction of the indigenous Kanak people called the Rheebu Nuu. BHP-Billiton’s Australian nickel laterite project is also experiencing cost blowouts and is delayed until early 2008 due to lower labour productivity and late delivery of essential equipment.

Combine the above with the political instability or lack of infrastructure in many of the countries that have nickel deposits and a perfect storm for continued shortages is assured.

New Caledonia’s nickel mining and smelting industry has been severely disrupted over the past four months by strikes partly aimed at the Goro project even though the workers were employed by Societe Le Nickel, a subsidiary of France’s Eramet.

Another major issue is the wear and tear of existing mining infrastructure. The nickel industry has been running flat out since 2003 with very little time for regular maintenance. Last year, equipment breakdowns at Inco’s Ontario and Manitoba operations and a fire in the electric furnace at their Indonesian facilities helped reduce nickel output. Similar problems are plaguing other nickel producers around the globe.

CVRD investing

Last Friday’s announcement by CVRD Inco to spend $477 million (US) on maintenance at its Canadian nickel operations in 2007 confirms the necessity of revamping these aging but essential assets. This figure represents 28 percent of total maintenance expenditures, given the low level of investment in the period 2003-2005, an annual average of $208 million.

CVRD Inco is currently developing three of the four largest nickel projects in the world. Once completed, the company

tricha
01-02-2007, 10:44 PM
Excellent articule indeed Sparrow "This article one of the most comprehensive I have read onthe NICKEL situation"

Hence the title change - In a 2006 year-end summary, Patricia Mohr, vice-president and commodity market specialist at Scotia Economics stated, “a super-cycle is expected in nickel, with prices staying strong through 2008.”

tricha
03-02-2007, 01:52 PM
Interesting times!

But I'm not quite sure what to make of it.[?][?][?]

Copper and Zinc got smashed last night, but Nickel keeps on trucking.

How long can Nickels amazing run continue, down to its lowest ever LME level in at least the last 5 years.

And the price is at an amazing $52,000 a ton OZ.

Huang Chung
05-02-2007, 10:27 PM
Last year, Tricha posted that soon there might be no Nickel to buy. I though at the time 'ha, ha, not very likely'.

Just had a look at Kitco.....the LME warehouse stocks are down to 3,222 tonnes, a drop of some 40% in a fortnight!!!!!

Tricha, did you bail on MCR too soon[?][?]

tricha
06-02-2007, 12:06 AM
Huang Chung I didn't bail, re read MCR, I took profit and reduced exposure, still way out of proportion, but like u said, there is no Nickel ( however the worm can and will turn, but the 4 million $ [?] When [?][?][?][?][?]

Huang Chung
06-02-2007, 12:23 AM
Yep, fair enough Tricha, and congrats on some good investing.

May PEM be kind to you as well.

tricha
06-02-2007, 12:52 AM
The double edged sword! However the worm can and will turn, but the 4 million $ [?] When Nickel [?][?][?] Unfortunately, No one knows for sure.


Price Outlook Divides Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan (Update2)

By Chia-Peck Wong and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- When it comes to nickel, the best performing commodity the past 13 months, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is determined to prove Deutsche Bank AG is full of so much hot air.

At stake is $55 billion of metal mined from New Caledonia to western Canada, and the rising cost of 300,000 stainless- steel products from General Electric Co. jet engines to kitchen sinks. More than $11 billion is riding on a Deutsche Bank call that nickel will appreciate again in 2007.

Prices of nickel, used to make stainless steel, have doubled in seven months to $37,000 a metric ton, after reaching the highest in more than two centuries of trading on Jan. 26. Nickel soared during the past five years as China stepped up stainless-steel production and overtook Japan as the world's largest supplier of the commodity.

The market is ``over-inflated,'' says Jon Bergtheil, the head of global metals strategy at JPMorgan in London and an industry analyst for three decades. ``Nickel's fall will be worse than the pace copper has seen,'' dropping at least 25 percent this year, he said.

Nonsense, says Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Lewis, who told customers on Jan. 12 that nickel is the favorite pick among industrial metals because producers can't keep up with demand. Germany's biggest bank raised its forecast for average nickel prices to about $31,500 in 2007 and to $31,000 in 2008. Nickel in 2006 averaged about $24,150.

``The ramp-up in Chinese stainless steel capacity in 2007- 08 is now expected to sustain strong demand growth for nickel at elevated levels,'' the bank said in a report. Lewis, who works in London, couldn't be reached to comment.

Low Inventories

Rising nickel use sent inventories at the London Metal Exchange to the lowest since July 1991, too little to supply steelmakers for even one day in the event of a shortage. Nickel gained 147 percent in 2006 and has risen 12 percent this year. Prices are five times higher than the average of $6,945 a ton during the 1990s. More than $11 billion of nickel futures are outstanding on the LME, which sets world benchmark prices.

Metals prices are so high that the U.S. Mint last year banned exports of nickels to prevent scrap merchants from melting down coins in developing countries. The 5-cents coin, which is 25 percent nickel and 75 percent copper, contains metal currently valued at 7 cents.

Chinese companies such as Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co. and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. will boost production 37 percent this year to about 7 million tons, from 5.1 million tons, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., a government-funded research group.

Bearish Sentiment

Some analysts say China has found an alternative in nickel pig iron, a lower-cost metal mined in the Philippines. The substitute may cause imports of refined nickel by China to drop 11 percent this year because it costs 40 percent less than the refined metal, said Xu Aidong, a metals analyst at Beijing Antaike.

Each time nickel prices doubled in a year during the past two decades, as they did in 2006, they've fallen the next year.

A drop in nickel prices would hurt Russia, Canada and Australia, the world's three biggest exporters. Profits would suffer at producers including Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, Brazil's second-largest company, and OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, where shares have gained 14 percent this year.

Merrill Sees Drop

Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Daniel Hynes says prices will tumble and average $23,700 a ton, 40 percent less than today. Hynes, who works in Sydn

SEC
12-02-2007, 10:08 PM
quote:Originally posted by SEC

A reckless sell strategy by both MIR and Barclays - a repeat offender when it comes to overselling (and overbuying).


Barclays has realised how reckless their IGO sell strategy was, and after selling down 1.3M shares through December/January at average price $3.95, proceeds to buy back 0.8M shares at average $4.26. Buy and hold seems a foreign concept to these clowns.

SEC

tricha
15-02-2007, 09:44 PM
London Metal Exchange nickel took center stage Wednesday rising nearly 5% driven by falling inventories, but analysts say they will keep a close watch on whether Asia succumbs to major bouts of profit-taking.

Three-month nickel reached a more than one-week-old high at $37,800 a metric ton Wednesday triggered by an increase in canceled warrants and falling stock levels, said Michael Skinner of Standard Bank in London.

Canceled warrants – or material accounted for and to be drawn down at a later date – soared to 54% Wednesday from Tuesday's 15%, leaving just 1,806 tons available to the market. This is less than half a day's worth of global nickel consumption.An owner of metal in LME warehouses holds a warrant. Some traders suggest that nickel warrants are tightly held by one particular market participant. This player can move its metal on and off warrant in warehouses and have some control over nickel stocks – and prices – as a result.

tricha
16-02-2007, 07:33 PM
China moves past Japan in stainless steel production
Source: Platts



See also
Stainless Steel Board
Stainless Steel CatalogChina has become the world's largest stainless steel producer, based on production statistics reported Tuesday by the Chinese Special Steel Association (SSAE). China's stainless steel output jumped 68% from 2005 to 5.3 million mt in 2006, ranking the first in the world, and moving past Japan, according to the group. Japan produced an estimated 3.3 million mt of stainless steel products in 2006.

In 2006, China imported 2.5 million mt of stainless steel products, down 20.1% from 2005, and exported 904,000 mt, a gain of 122.6%. For the year, China supplied 60% of its own stailess steel requirments, said the group.

The growth of China's stainless steel output and export will not constitute a threat to foreign industries, said Li Cheng, president of the stainless steel branch of the SSAE. China's huge domestic demand for stainless steel is still on the rise, absorbing most of its own supply, Li said.

Last year, China's supplied 60% of its own stainless steel requirements, said the group.

tricha
17-02-2007, 12:13 PM
= FOCUS: Changes In Nickel Mining Herald Permanent Price Rise

02/15/2007 05:06:00 PM EST
DowJones

(This item first ran at 0813 GMT)


By Elisabeth Behrmann
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SYDNEY, Feb 15, 2007 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --Fundamental changes in nickel mining will mean permanently higher production costs, and pose more risks for slower ramp up, cost blowouts and environmental concerns that will keep nickel prices at high levels in the future, analysts say.

The average cost of producing one metric ton of nickel, a material mostly used in the making of stainless steel, has almost tripled between 2000 and last year. Copper production costs rose 50% by comparison during that period, Barclays Capital said in a recent report.

"In nickel, the move up reflects a shift in production patterns away from sulfide deposits toward the much more energy intensive treatment of laterite ores," Barclays said.

Around 85% of new nickel projects will use laterite ores, but a complicated mining process and a host of environmental concerns have left the nickel industry wary of further delays and more cost blowouts.

"A break even analysis of a basket of projects shows that a nickel price of around $6 per pound ($13,224 a metric ton) is required to bring on sufficient capacity in order to have a balanced market," a nickel analyst at an industry consultancy said.

While far below current London Metal Exchange nickel prices at a near record $37,500/ton, historical price averages place nickel closer to a $7,000-$9,000/ton band.

Secondly, severe time and cost problems at BHP Billiton Ltd.'s (BHP) $2.2 billion Ravensthorpe project in Australia and CVRD Inco's $3 billion Goro project in New Caledonia point to nickel demand outrunning supply in the future as China continues "its love affair with the shiny stuff," analysts say.

Nickel was the biggest gainer on the LME in 2006, more than doubling over the one year and has continued its bull run to a record $38,950/ton in January. LME stocks, a yardstick for availability in the physical market, are at a tiny half day of global consumption.

Environmental Concerns Come To The Fore
Aside from ongoing labor shortages and a difficult mining process, environmental concerns have significantly delayed Goro and CVRD's $1.1 billion Vermelho project in Brazil's Para state.

Both projects - like around half of the current laterite projects in development - use high-pressure acid leaching to extract nickel, leaving behind sulfatic liquid waste containing heavy metals.

While this poses little problem at Ravensthorpe in dry Western Australia, where the liquid waste evaporates in specially designed ponds, it is a major concern in the tropical climate of CVRD's projects in New Caledonia and Brazil, analysts say.

Liquids will go into the Amazon river system and a protected marine area in New Caledonia, with levels of dissolved metals potentially posing a threat to the environment.

And this will remain a sticking point. About 72% of the world's nickel resources are laterites, found mainly in the tropics such as Indonesia, Cuba, Brazil and New Caledonia.

Discharge from Goro has been contentious from the start, culminating in environmental activists attacking Goro installations last April, including a water pipe - showcasing the vulnerability of any future discharge pipe - and burning vehicles.

In August CVRD announced a delay of almost a year for 45,000-ton-a-year Vermelho, citing delays with environmental licensing.

The delay was due to concerns over levels of toxicity in the mining residue, analysts say.

"These projects have to wait for the (environmental) permit. If you can't build the effluent, you can't build the plant," one consultant said.

Past Lessons Learnt, To An Extent
Even though lessons have been learnt from the problematic mining of lateritic ore bodies in the past, difficulties in

shasta
17-02-2007, 12:23 PM
Tricha

To save me checking back over the thread, which pure Nickel stocks (or primarily Nickel) do you currently hold?

TIA

tricha
17-02-2007, 12:57 PM
I now only own Mincor, although AGM,IGO, SMY, WSA are all excellent ones as well.

shasta
17-02-2007, 01:22 PM
Thanks Tricha

Through my holding in URA, they are spinning off their Nickel assets & listing them on the ASX.

Am just wanting to compare them to some established Nickel companies, like MCR, AGM ...

tricha
19-02-2007, 07:26 PM
China Reports 3.78Mt of Nickel Ore Imports Last Year

By David Harman
16 Feb 2007 at 09:02 AM EST


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China imported 3.78 million tonnes of nickel ore last year, a 6.8-fold increase compared with the previous year, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs.

Total nickel ore imports amounted to RMB 3.41 billion ($440 million) in 2006, 1.5 times the amount for 2005. However, average import prices declined by 67.7% to RMB 903.26 ($116.40) per tonne.




China's nickel ore imports from the Philippines reached 3.34 million tonnes, up 11.6% from 2005, which accounted for 88.5% of China's total nickel ore imports. In 2005, China's imports were mainly from Australian nickel mines.

According to the Shanghai Securities News, China's nickel ore imports surged last year because large quantities of low-grade nickel ore were imported from the Philippines, which also resulted in an average import price drop.

Low-grade nickel ore imports from the Philippines have a nickel content of 0.9% to 1.1%. Japan dominates high-grade nickel mines in the Philippines and has collaborated with the Philippines since 1970 to develop local nickel mines, with nickel ore grading 2%.

The rapid development of China's stainless steel production has increased demand for nickel, which is one of the raw materials for stainless steel.

China's nickel deposits are unable to meet domestic market demands, and China is therefore dependent on nickel ore imports. About two thirds of the nickel is used to produce stainless steel in China.

Current global nickel production is about 1.3 million tonnes a year, with two-thirds of the metal being used in stainless steel production, 10% in electroplating, 20% in alloys and coins.

China produced 419 million tonnes of crude steel in 2006, up 18.5% from a year earlier, according to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday.

Steel product exports hit a record 43.01 million tonnes last year, surging 109.6% from a year earlier. Net exports were 24.50 million tonnes for the whole year. The China Iron and Steel Association predicted in late 2006 that China would produce 462 million tonnes in 2007, up more than 10% from 2006.

Analysts believed that China's stainless steel output will increase by one third this year from last year's 6 million metric tonnes, with production capacity to hit 10 million tonnes by the end of this year.
© Interfax-China 2007

tricha
19-02-2007, 07:35 PM
Generally where u get nickel, you get Cobalt and for example Mincor produced 66.8 tons of cobalt for the quarter.
Another cash cow for IGO,SMY,MCR and a few others [:p]

Targeting a Tight Cobalt Market

By Richard Reinhard
16 Feb 2007 at 12:23 PM EST


SEATTLE (ResourceInvestor.com) -- It isn’t as hot as uranium or as precious as gold but cobalt’s profile will continue to growing the coming months and years. The price has almost doubled from $16 - $30 per pound these past few months due to supply issues and steady buyers. The issue at hand for investors though, is that there are precious few public cobalt companies.

It is becoming apparent that there is huge potential for companies positioned to provide a stable supply of cobalt. Demand is increasing into what is a very tight physical market, and there is real fear that current supply could be constricted.




This is from a recent story from Metal-pages.com: “’It's just been non-stop,’ said one London trader. ’This January is the busiest in 30 years.’ He has paid $26.25 for Russian metal, predicting the shortage of stocks will send prices higher still. Consumers are so desperate for metal they are calling him at 11 in the evening, he said. He predicted cobalt prices will rise above $30 before the end of the month.”

The only cobalt-focused companies on my radar screen are Geovic Mining Corp [TSXv:GMC] developing its open pit cobalt-nickel deposits in Cameroon, Africa, and Formation Capital [TSXv:FCO], developing a cobalt deposit in Idaho.

Cobalt inventories are low – one source suggested only a few days’ supply. Cobalt is used extensively in batteries for hybrid cars (both nickel and lithium ion) and many electronic devices – cell phones, laptops etc., all of which are experiencing increasing sales. Inventories are low around the world, at a time when demand is picking up.

Since 1993 cobalt prices were held down largely by sales from the U.S. Government stockpile, and lower grade cobalt material coming from the former Soviet Union. With these sources depleting, the market has little inventory to draw from, now relying primarily on new production.

In late 2006 Russia-based Norilsk, already accounting for 20% of the world’s nickel and cobalt production, announced the buyout of U.S.-based OM Group’s (OMG) substantial nickel interests. OMG was the world’s largest producer and manufacturer of cobalt products as a by-product of their nickel production. Now, Norilsk controls a much larger slice of the pie, and the market remembers their recent resolve to withhold supply in an effort to buoy cobalt prices.

As part of their takeover agreement, Norilsk entered into a 5-year supply agreement with OMG to provide them with 6,500 million tonnes per year of cobalt in various grades, but there is uncertainty about how OMG will distribute these diminished supplies. The cobalt market is increasingly nervous that spot supplies will stall; when the Norilsk-OMA agreement was announced, market-savvy cobalt consumers immediately tried to increase stockpiles.

Then BHP Billiton [NYSE:BHP] stopped selling cobalt. Though it only controls two per cent of the market, that move quickly strengthened an already tight physical market. The market’s reaction to these events, coupled with already substantial and further expected increases in demand, drove the cobalt price from $16 to nearly $30 per pound during the last four months of 2006.

Although there is no tertiary market for cobalt like the LME or COMEX, price transparency is provided by quotations through sources like Platt’s Metal Week, Metal Bulletin and BHP Billiton’s Cobalt Open Sales Systems. Additional cobalt information is also available from the US Geological Survey and the Cobalt Development Institute.

Users obtain cobalt from traders, producers, government stockpiles and private inventories through negotiated agreements, bids and open market purchases.

Cobalt Use

Cobal

Zephyrus
20-02-2007, 10:56 PM
Has anybody looked into Lion Ore Mining (LIM)?

As far as I can tell, they're potentially on a lower PE than MCR, and with huge upside in development.

My rough calcs suggest a PE of 6.6 for 2006.

Q1 = US$13.2
Q2 = US$62
Q3 = US$148.1

Based on Q3 profit of 148 minus 25 (one-off) divided by 7812 (tonnes of payable nickel for Q3) multiplied by 12548 (anticipated tonnes of payable nickel for Q4), I get a profit of around US$200 for Q4. I would assume the average price received in Q4 is higher than Q3 but have not included that in my calcs.

Therefore, if my calcs are reasonable, we should have a 2006 profit of around A$530 million (at an exchange rate of 0.8) and a PE of 6.6 (with MC at A$3.5 billion).

Also, they're planning to boost their output to 80,000 tonnes plus per annum in years to come.

Cheers,
Z.

tricha
21-02-2007, 02:19 AM
A valid point Zephyrus, leave no stone un-turned and I for one will follow up. Zephyrus - "Has anybody looked into Lion Ore Mining (LIM)?

As far as I can tell, they're potentially on a lower PE than MCR, and with huge upside in development.

My rough calcs suggest a PE of 6.6 for 2006."




Nickel Advances to a Record in London After Inventories Slump

By Brett Foley

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose to a record in London on speculation that supply may lag behind demand after stockpiles fell for the first day in 10. Tin gained to a 17-year high.

London Metal Exchange-monitored inventories increased 36 metric tons to 4,398 tons, the LME said in a daily report. Stockpiles have dropped 34 percent this year and are equal to less than one day of global consumption. Demand for the metal is surging among stainless-steel makers.

Stockpiles are ``critically low'', said Robin Bhar, a London-based metals analyst with UBS AG, which is a member of the LME. ``This volatile market is not for the faint-hearted.''

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME advanced as much as $1,100, or 2.8 percent, to $39,900 a metric ton as of 1:41 p.m. local time, beating the previous record of $39,501 recorded on Feb. 15.

Tin rose $200 to $13,400 a ton. Earlier, it gained as much as 1.9 percent to $13,450 a ton, the highest since at least 1989. Supplies will fall short of demand by about 30,000 tons in 2007 because of reduced output in Indonesia, according to a report published yesterday by U.K. consulting companies ITRI Ltd. and CRU.

Tin miners have until Feb. 22 to register for the right to export the metal from Indonesia, the world's second-largest producer. The government plans to tighten export regulations and crack down on illegal mining. China is the biggest producer.

Also on the LME, copper dropped $67 to $5,738 a ton, aluminum fell $24 to $2,756 and lead gained $35 to $1,815. Zinc declined $42 to $3,350.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: February 20, 2007 08:52 EST

OldRider
21-02-2007, 07:38 AM
I have not taken an interest in LIM over recent years,but the name has a pleasant ring to me. LIM in the days when it was an Australian offshoot, was my first venture into the nickel mining sector, purchased for a NZ$ price of 74c 16 May 02, then sold out 1 Nov 2002 for $NZ1.01 when LIM International took over its ASX subsidiary.
I thought I had done well, but had no inkling of the future. I remember looking for the next move, finished up buying JBM with the takeover payout, now some years later we know what that has done. Interesting that the dividends received from JBM since purchase have now well exceeded the original cost of the LIM purchase

That first nickel interest in LIM, together with subsequent nickel mining purchases, has produced growth way beyond any ideas I had. I doubt I will be able to repeat things in my lifetime, no doubt others will in different areas. Must though take another look at LIM,

tricha
22-02-2007, 11:13 PM
Nickel at $53,000 tons OZ and I do not really think it matters that much which Nickel player you had a few monthes or a year ago.

We are all making hay in MRE, JBM, IGO, AGM, MCR, SMY, LIM, WSA and a few others. [:p]

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
( February 22 )
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 783875 +4200
Copper 210425 +425
Nickel 3450 -480
Lead 32375 -150
Zinc 99825 +3225

Cheers [B)][}:)]

P.S When u r buying gifts or presents, please buy something with stainless in it,( none of that low grade stuff either ) lets help keep these stocks low, lol.
How you noticed when you have been shopping how much nickel related products there are [?][?][?]
Now there are 1.3 billion Chinese and 1 billion Indians wanting it as well :D

SEC
22-02-2007, 11:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by tricha

P.S When u r buying gifts or presents, please buy something with stainless in it,( none of that low grade stuff either ) lets help keep these stocks low, lol.
How you noticed when you have been shopping how much nickel related products there are [?][?][?]
Now there are 1.3 billion Chinese and 1 billion Indians wanting it as well :D


Uhhh, I think you'll be disappointed to find that a lot of the stainless steel products you'll find on the shop shelves don't contain nickel[V]. Go for SS pots and pans, not cutlery (they use cheap 400 series SS). To make sure you're buying a bona fide genuine nickel product in the shops, take a magnet with you. Stainless steel products containing nickel are not magnetic.

However... if you're going to buy your loved one a true gift of nickel buy a large 100 cubic metre 316 grade wine holding tank for the back yard. Preferably full.:D

SEC

lewinsky
26-02-2007, 07:20 AM
Looking good for Nickel shares.
Nickel touches fresh high of USD43500 per ton on fears of fast depleting inventories
General News - 2007 February 25
Nickel hit a new high of $43,500 a ton in London in early trade on concerns over its availability for use in stainless steel that consumes about 66 per cent of the metal.

The record rise was mainly attributed to supply fears created by fast depleting inventories.


Nickel prices have climbed about 30 per cent on the London Metal Exchange (LME) so far this year, and there are indications for further upside in the days ahead.


Inventory levels in the LME-registered warehouses are receding fast owing to a lack of fresh additions by producers. However, Offtake continues unabated – 468 ton today moved out knocking the level down to a low of 3,930 ton, equivalent to world’s one-day consumption. With this, stockpiles have plunged 34 per cent since the beginning of the year.


Mumbai’s non-ferrous metals market gained about 10 per cent to Rs 1,910 a kg from Rs 1,740 a kg in the beginning of the year, on the back of a fall in domestic stainless steel producers’ demand for nickel owing to the new trend of manufacturing low-nickel stainless steel. Sector experts said the industry was currently using only 1 per cent of nickel (as content) in stainless steel production against the 6 per cent earlier.


Nickel prices are also soaring on huge demand from China, the world’s largest producer of stainless steel. The prices have jumped over six-fold over the past five years as supplies failed to keep pace with the Chinese demand. The country’s stainless steel production surged 68 per cent in 2006.


In 2006, inventories slumped 85 per cent from 36,000 ton to 5,000 ton, while prices shot up over 170 per cent. The higher nickel prices have also been corroborated by Deutsche Bank forecasts.


As per the report, 2007 will see a supply deficit of 1,98,900 ton, while in 2008 the deficit will be 1,66,800 ton, primarily because of production delays at the two largest mines scheduled to come onstream – BHP Billiton’s Ravensthorpe in Australia and CVRD’s Goro in New Caledonia.


Nickel has outpaced other LME-traded metals owing to stainless steel mills’ capacity expansion and cut in production by leading producers.


Almost all stainless steel mills have expanded their capacities, pushing the demand up.


The world’s largest ferro-nickel smelter, Eramet, cut output at its New Caledonia unit by 27 per cent on account of a strike that lasted for almost four months. Some experts said nickel consumption would beat production by 3,600 ton this year, following a deficit of 23,300 ton in 2006.


On the other hand, the growth in demand for stainless steel is forecast at around 7.5 per cent this year and is likely to push nickel prices to new highs.


In the backdrop of the reduced nickel use pattern, February delivery on the MCX today fell marginally to Rs 1,849 a kg from Rs 1,864 a kg on the previous day.


March delivery too fell 0.87 per cent to Rs 1,809.5 a kg from Rs 1,825 a day earlier. Given the long-term tight supply situation, April delivery gained a marginal 0.54 per cent to Rs 1,783 a kg from Rs 1,774 a kg yesterday.

Source: Business Standard

SEC
26-02-2007, 10:49 PM
I love it when a stock goes ex div yet the price surges. Both MCR and IGO ex div 6c today, not that the buyers noticed!

IGO is still $1 below fair value thanks to the silly selloff in December/January by MIR and Barclays. The market is basically valuing IGO's 30% share in the Tropicana gold deposit (est 3 million ounces) at zero. This can't last.

SEC (MCR IGO)

tricha
27-02-2007, 12:34 AM
Find the missing link [?][?][?][?]

China finds 65 new mineral deposit sites in 2006
Source: Hoovers



See also
Metals Mining Board
Metals Mining CatalogChina found 65 new mineral deposit sites last year, and has seen "breakthroughs" in copper ore prospecting, along with findings in bauxite, iron, lead and zinc ores, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

Government surveys added 850,000 metric tons of copper ore reserves in the Qulong area of the Tibet Autonomous Region last year, raising its total deposits to 7.9 million tons, Zhang Hongtao, deputy director of the China Geological Survey, was quoted as saying Saturday.

An additional 1.07 million tons of copper was also discovered in the Zhunuo area of Tibet. Zhang said exploration at the Pulang and Yangla copper reserves in Yunnan province indicated the both sites were likely to have more reserves.

The China Geological Survey under the Ministry of Land and Resources is responsible for the country's mineral exploration.

It estimated the bauxite resources found in Youjiang area at Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region last year will likely reach 119.5 million tons.

The agency also found 2.22 million tons of lead and zinc resources in Wuqia County at Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, and forecast 600,000 tons of tungsten and tin resources in Xitian area in Hunan province, after further exploration.

China has spent more than CNY1.64 billion ($213 million) in minerals prospecting since 1999, the report said.

Surveys in 1999-2005 added 26.78 million tons of copper resources, 78.48 million tons of lead and zinc, 20.31 million tons of bauxite, 762.8 million tons of iron as well as 1,026 tons of gold and 77,158 tons of silver resources, according to Xinhua.