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ananda77
20-09-2005, 01:00 PM
One of the most focused, determined, and knowledgable CSG-Producers with fields in the USA and Australia...a definite medium- to long-term BUY around current prices

<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/aoe1.jpg</center>

Kind Regards

pedro.nz
09-02-2006, 12:05 PM
Whats up - anyone know - In trading halt till 13th or earlier announcement

ananda77
09-02-2006, 07:45 PM
pedro.nz:

Most likely a capital raising exercise via a share placement to institutional shareholders to help finance the 10 projects currently in the pipeline.

Kind Regards

Taijon
13-02-2006, 09:31 PM
A77 the announcements today look encouraging. Shareholders can purchase more shares at 58 cents and free options being issued exercisable at 75 cents prior to the end of the year.

Will any shareholder be able to get $5000 worth of new shares regardless of how many shares they hold on the date for which entitlements are calculated? Might pay to buy or transfer a 100 shares for my daughter!!!!!!

kura
13-02-2006, 11:16 PM
Yep, any shareholder can purchase $5000 (I just purchased 2000 shares today)

pedro.nz
05-12-2006, 07:36 PM
Although other CSG producers are in the limelight at the moment, this company seems to be on the ball.
Reached a high of 115 today before close at 111.5.

Wondering why not much comment on this forum, not many following this one?

Company is not just looking in its own backyard now as recent announcments re India show.

Latest announcment...
Arrow Energy has reached an agreement with Sugico Graha, PT (Sugico), which provides
Arrow with an option to farm-in to twelve of Sugico’s tenements in South Sumatra, Indonesia to
earn up to a 65% interest in each.
Sugico’s projects consist of twelve coal KPs (Kuasa Pertambangan = Mining Authorisation) in
the South Sumatra Basin covering approximately 140,000 hectares. Sugico’s KPs are close to
existing gas pipeline infrastructure and growing energy markets. The Government of Indonesia
is currently preparing regulations to govern the exploration and development of Coal Bed
Methane (CBM) in Indonesia with the regulations expected to be released in the 1st quarter of
2007. These regulations are expected to give first right of refusal for CBM tenements to the
existing and overlapping tenement holders for Coal and Petroleum.
The Farm-in Agreement Option with Sugico provides Arrow with the opportunity to farm-in to
earn 65% interest in all of the twelve KPs.
Sugico is a privately held Indonesian company with diversified interests in Mining (Coal, Mineral
Sands, Gold, Lime Stones and Iron Ores), Oil & Gas exploration and production, Equipment
Supply and Plant Maintenance Services, Coal Mine Mouth Power Generation and Crude Palm
Oil.
The government of Indonesia is moving quickly to settle the regulations and terms for CBM
production, as the demand for clean energy in Indonesia is enormous. A study in a Society of
Petroleum Engineers’ paper (Scott H Stevens, Hadiyanto: - Indonesia Coalbed Methane
Indicators and Basin Evaluation - Paper SPE 88630) has estimated that the potential Coal
Seam Gas resource in South Sumatra alone is 183 TCF.
Pipeline infrastructure connecting South Sumatra and the heavily populated island of Java is
currently under construction.
This farm-in option represents a strategic first mover advantage for Arrow in Indonesia and
follows Arrow’s recent strategy document outlining a plan to follow up the successful award of
exploration blocks in India with a selection procedure for prospective blocks and local partners
in Indonesia and China

bermuda
06-12-2006, 07:47 AM
One of the best companies in this market.Excellent professional Management.Bought in at 60 cents but sold out only to see further improvement .Might buy back in.Davies is a savvy guy.

ananda77
06-12-2006, 08:07 AM
...because Australia switching base load electricity generation from coal to gas, gas explorers/producers are in vogue

...coal seam gas provides a relative low-risk exposure to the process compared to the more risky conventional oil/gas exploration

...AOE (superb investment over the past) definitely in the process of achieving it's business targets.
However, in terms of leverage, there are other attractive industry participants also like SGL, MPO, or MOS (three favorites at present with a minimum view of six to 12 months)

Kind Regards

gisborne_gold
12-01-2007, 03:03 PM
I see Barramundi (BRM.NZX) have announced Arrow Energy as one of their first investments, and are trumpeting a 28% gain since making their investment.

laurie
12-01-2007, 08:51 PM
So is NHC :D who owns 18.8% of AOE who will IMHO take over AOE [^]

cheers laurie

Tim
26-01-2007, 08:25 PM
Is this a high risk company. Also noticed barramundi have purchased this share and they certainly do thorough analysis. Might add to shopping list

ananda77
30-01-2007, 10:26 AM
...in regards to 2P-reserves, AOE still presents excellent medium to longterm value

<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/AOE2PReserves.gif</center>

...AOE resumes it's strong 3-month up-trend now, buying would start around the 116/120 range (tend more to &gt;120)

otherwise, excellent buying opportunity around the 95/103 range within the medium to longterm timeframe

<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/AOEmonthly.gif</center>
<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/AOEweekly.gif</center>

Kind Regards

Taijon
31-01-2007, 08:48 AM
Share price bounced up 10 cents in the final hour yesterday, presumably in line with the QGC and Santos play. Perhaps it will now move closer to the valuation Wilson HTM brokers put on it in Nov 2006 ($A 1.53).

Ananda77: am I reading your chart correctly - does it say that in terms of P2 reserves relative to market cap, MPO is a better investment than AOE?

ananda77
31-01-2007, 09:55 AM
...no it does not;

...it says, that Molopo's shareprice relative to it's 2P-reserves is a lot cheaper than Arrow's shareprice compared to it's 2P reserves at this point in time

...depending on your personal risk profile, MPO might be the better investment for you or not

Kind Regards

pedro.nz
30-05-2007, 07:05 PM
Closed at $2.58 today after this announcement...

Arrow Energy N.L. will supply gas to a new liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) export facility planned for Queensland’s Port of Gladstone in a multi-billion dollar deal that has the potential to more than double Arrow’s forecast production and provides leverage to soaring oil prices.
Under a Heads of Agreement (“HOA”) signed with LNG International Pty Ltd (“LNGI”), supported by the world’s largest independent owner of LNG transportation, Golar LNG Limited and a high investment grade Japanese LNG buyer, Arrow proposes to supply 55 petajoules of gas per year for a 12-year period from late-2010, with an option for another 55 PJ per annum from as early as mid-2011, subject to a second LNG train being developed.
The first stage of the facility is designed to produce around 1 million tonnes per annum of LNG with an option to expand to 2 million tonnes. Arrow’s gas will be supplied at a base price with an upside linked to oil prices, providing the company with significantly higher prices than gas priced for electricity generation.
Chief executive Nick Davies said, “This is the breakthrough we’ve been looking for and planning towards over the past 15 months.”
“Our strategy has been to seek a viable export project for our coal seam gas (“CSG”) from the east coast of Australia that would give us exposure to oil pricing and to help us to break out of the low gas price environment in the eastern states caused by the wide availability of coal.”
Currently forecasting production of a net 60 PJ of gas by 2010, Mr Davies said Arrow’s strategy had been building up its resource position in preparation for the groundbreaking deal.
“Last year’s merger with CH4 Gas Limited, the investment and farm-in to Pure Energy Resources Limited Bowen Basin CSG acreage and the $265 million investment by Sweden’s Energy Infrastructure Group AB in our acreage were all designed to get us a critical mass of reserve certification options aimed at supplying the Port of Gladstone so that we could export gas as either LNG, CNG (compressed natural gas) or GTL (gas to liquids),” he said.
Arrow also has the option to aggregate the gas supply from multiple sources (including joint venture parties) which, importantly, will provide the impetus for development of Arrow’s Bowen Basin, Coastal Queensland and Pure Energy joint venture coal seam gas holdings plus associated major pipeline infrastructure, Mr Davies said.
LNGI is a wholly owned subsidiary of ASX listed company, LNG Limited, which is 20% owned by Golar, the world’s largest independent owner of LNG shipping transportation with a project portfolio, which fully covers LNG mid-stream activity – liquefaction, shipping, trading and regasification. Golar has confirmed its “in principle “ interest in investing in the Gladstone LNG project; purchasing the LNG offtake in addition to assisting with shipping solutions.
Discussions are currently underway with relevant authorities regarding a likely facility location in the Gladstone Port area.
Mr Davies said, “Arrow is drawing up a 2008 financial year exploration and appraisal programs targeting net 2P (proved and probable) reserves of 1,500 PJ, with a target for gross un-contracted reserves that could access the Port of Gladstone, of around 1,100 PJ during the year.
“That reserve level would be more than adequate to meet the needs of the first LNG train, with any additional reserves required for the second LNG train to be added in FY2009. The significant field development that will follow on immediately from this reserve certification program is also being assessed for implementation in the FY2009 and FY2010 years.”
An LNG plant comprises one or more LNG trains, each of which is an independent unit for gas liquefaction.
Financial close for the LNG terminal project is targeted for September 2008 with a development timeline to enable first deliveries of LNG in late 2010.
“Arrow continues to focus on new business with higher margins, both in product selection in terms of GTL, LNG or CNG,

lissica
09-08-2007, 05:55 PM
Hmm...I can't seem to find the old Arrow thread for some reason?

Anyway, I note that the share purchase plan documents were sent out on Tues 7 August. Just a favour to ask fellow NZ shareholders- can you please let me know when they arrive?

I'm in Australia at the moment and it's going to be a tight schedule if I'm to get it cheque sent in before the closing date of 29 August.

Cheers,

Lissica

macduffy
11-08-2007, 09:29 AM
Hmm...I can't seem to find the old Arrow thread for some reason?

Anyway, I note that the share purchase plan documents were sent out on Tues 7 August. Just a favour to ask fellow NZ shareholders- can you please let me know when they arrive?

I'm in Australia at the moment and it's going to be a tight schedule if I'm to get it cheque sent in before the closing date of 29 August.

Cheers,

Lissica

Received in Wellington this morning.

aurelian
12-08-2007, 07:37 AM
Lissica
Received Saturday Auckland
Has a Bpay option on it so if you have Aus account you may be able to gain some time.
Orr you could call Link 1-800-129-431 (AuS)

lissica
12-08-2007, 11:58 AM
Cool thanks heaps.

I'll send a cheque home with mum (visiting till Weds). Does it need a signature or any other info before sending in? Is it mailed to Link in Australia or Link in NZ?

macduffy
12-08-2007, 03:50 PM
No signature required, they just want your money ( and appn form) in multiples of $1000: $1000 - $5000, as if anyone will apply for less than the max.
Mail to Link, Brisbane.

Taijon
15-08-2007, 03:28 PM
AOE seems to be taking a hammering today (down nearly 10%), along with most other shares I might add. Might pay to wait a few days before taking up the SPP offer.

Hommel
21-08-2007, 06:50 AM
I attended a Fisher Funds presentation last night and they are very positive (bullish) about AOE's future and from the figures quoted it could easily become a 5 - bagger or better over the next few years. I have not got a stake yet but will be buying in soon.

peterb
21-08-2007, 11:50 AM
SPP looked great at the price a few weeks ago. Its not looking like such a great deal now. You will still probably get shares a bit cheaper than market price, and if the uptake of the spp is good then the shareprice will rise because of general increase in shareholder positivity. AOE seems to have borne the brunt of ASX's turbulent downturn, its a shame.

macduffy
21-08-2007, 04:50 PM
Looking a bit better now at $2-44.

winner69
12-12-2007, 06:34 AM
Will be interesting to see what the experts say about the impact of the DXL debacle on the future earnings forecast of AOE - they were to supply the gas to the new plant

Just have to find a new customer eh

shasta
12-12-2007, 10:35 PM
Will be interesting to see what the experts say about the impact of the DXL debacle on the future earnings forecast of AOE - they were to supply the gas to the new plant

Just have to find a new customer eh

Im interested in AOE after them buying into LNG (who ive been watching closely)

I see this company going places with there CSG/CBM assets.

Plenty of cash too :cool:

shasta
12-02-2008, 10:56 PM
Im interested in AOE after them buying into LNG (who ive been watching closely)

I see this company going places with there CSG/CBM assets.

Plenty of cash too :cool:

Getting close to $2 is just plain crazy IMO

I cant wait for OEL to spike, so i can take a little off the table & invest in AOE as i see this $5+ within 18 months...

I like AOE & LNG with there "LNG" JV which is looking promising for 2009>

Hope to enter sub $2.50 :cool:

pedro.nz
22-02-2008, 06:11 PM
Looks like market is anticipating a good result on Monday, up 7.3&#37; today to $2.49...

Extract from 14th Feb announcement...
The Company is revising its earnings guidance upwards for the six months ended 31 December 2007 with expected half year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in the range $19 m to $22.5 m and the half year pre-tax profit to the range between $12.5 to 14.5 million (unaudited).
The Company expects to release its audited half year results on 25 February 2008 and will provide full year earnings guidance at this time also.

shasta
05-09-2008, 05:07 PM
Looks like market is anticipating a good result on Monday, up 7.3% today to $2.49...

Extract from 14th Feb announcement...
The Company is revising its earnings guidance upwards for the six months ended 31 December 2007 with expected half year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in the range $19 m to $22.5 m and the half year pre-tax profit to the range between $12.5 to 14.5 million (unaudited).
The Company expects to release its audited half year results on 25 February 2008 and will provide full year earnings guidance at this time also.

Very impressive presentation out today...

Still like AOE, just not just yet ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=202895

shasta
24-11-2008, 10:24 AM
Very impressive presentation out today...

Still like AOE, just not just yet ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=202895

AOE signs "HOA" with Bin Chang Mining Group (China)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=205867

mark100
26-11-2008, 01:42 AM
I like AOE sub $2. Unfortunately I rode it all the way up from $2 to $2.90 earlier this month and then only sold a few, so rode the majority of the holding back down to $2. Bugger!

Anyway, AOE is due to receive US$463m from Shell early next month. This has been delayed somewhat due to very slow government employees taking too many coffee breaks and surfing the web during office hours. AOE now expect to get the cash in early Dec. Hopefully the AUD stays in the low 60's until this transaction completes.

After completion, AOE should have net cash of around A$700m, compared with a market cap of A$1400m @ $2/share.

Shell has also agreed to pay AOE further cash upon the reaching of certain milestones in the future, so the US$463 is simply an initial payment.

I still think its an almost certaintly that AOE will be the subject of corporate action in the next 12-18 months (along with STO). In other words I think downside from $2 is small while upside is very decent.

shasta
26-11-2008, 06:23 PM
I like AOE sub $2. Unfortunately I rode it all the way up from $2 to $2.90 earlier this month and then only sold a few, so rode the majority of the holding back down to $2. Bugger!

Anyway, AOE is due to receive US$463m from Shell early next month. This has been delayed somewhat due to very slow government employees taking too many coffee breaks and surfing the web during office hours. AOE now expect to get the cash in early Dec. Hopefully the AUD stays in the low 60's until this transaction completes.

After completion, AOE should have net cash of around A$700m, compared with a market cap of A$1400m @ $2/share.

Shell has also agreed to pay AOE further cash upon the reaching of certain milestones in the future, so the US$463 is simply an initial payment.

I still think its an almost certaintly that AOE will be the subject of corporate action in the next 12-18 months (along with STO). In other words I think downside from $2 is small while upside is very decent.

You like the double whammy approach with NHC & AOE, me too!

NHC owns ~18% of AOE, & already is well in profit on it's holding

shasta
26-11-2008, 08:02 PM
You like the double whammy approach with NHC & AOE, me too!

NHC owns ~18% of AOE, & already is well in profit on it's holding

AOE - Chairmans Address
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=205978

AOE - MD's Presentation
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=205979

Interesting reading ;)

shasta
27-11-2008, 05:54 PM
AOE - Chairmans Address
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=205978

AOE - MD's Presentation
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=205979

Interesting reading ;)

AOE - Signs co-op agreement in Indonesian :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=206042

Gotta like the way Arrow goes about it's business, no nonsense

shasta
07-12-2008, 03:50 PM
AOE - Signs co-op agreement in Indonesian :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=206042

Gotta like the way Arrow goes about it's business, no nonsense

AOE benefits from the FX rate, with the Shell deal

Post sourced off Sharescene :D

Arrow Energy executes definitive agreements with Shell.

Arrow Energy has taken a further giant stride on its path to becoming the first global coal seam gas company following the execution of definitive agreements with energy major Royal Dutch Shell.

Shell Exploration Company B.V. (Shell), a subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell PLC, has now executed definitive agreements to acquire 30 percent of Arrow’s interest in its Australian upstream tenements and a 10 percent stake of Arrow International Pte Ltd which holds all of Arrow’s international assets for up to A$915 million.

There have been no material changes to the terms or conditions agreed in the original memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between Arrow and Shell on 2 June 2008 other than an increase in the total
transaction value in Australian dollar terms by A$140 million due to currency movements since the time of execution of the memorandum of understanding.

Arrow Energy Chief Executive Officer, Mr Nick Davies, said that the two companies had been working closely together since the deal’s announcement to complete requirements for execution of the definitive agreements.

“I am very pleased with the way that the teams from both companies completed the requirements to get these agreements finalised. The level of co-operation between the teams and the speed at which this was finalised bodes well for the future of our alliance with Shell,” Mr Davies said.

“Both Shell and Arrow will now work together to deliver the value from our vast Australian coal seam gas interests as well as move forward with our international opportunities.

“This is an exciting time for Arrow Energy as we continue to progress monetisation of our substantial gas resources through our liquefied natural gas (LNG) opportunity as well as the current development of our third gas-fired power station in south-east Queensland.

At the financial close of the transaction, following receipt of remaining regulatory and other approvals, Arrow Energy’s current capital plan will be fully funded through to early 2011,” he said.

Background material for Arrow Energy’s agreement with Shell:
Shell will acquire 30 percent of Arrow’s interest in all of its Australian upstream tenements for up to US$612.5 million (A$761 million), including:

• An initial upfront payment of US$413 million (including back costs from 1/1/2008),

• A further US$133 million payable to Arrow upon Final Investment Decision of an LNG project,

• US$66.5 million payable when the LNG project is producing an annualized equivalent of 1 mtpa of LNG using CSG from Arrow/Shell upstream tenements.

Shell will acquire 10% of Arrow International Pte Ltd, which holds all of Arrow’s International assets, for up to US$125 million (A$155 million), including:

• US$50 million up front payment (together with a further payment with respect to reimbursement of certain back costs),

• US$25 million upon signing of two License/Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) once the initial US$50 million is expended,

• US$50 million if 2P reserves in which Shell/Arrow hold an equity interest exceeds 5 trillion cubic feet (TCF) prior to 31 December 2015 (reduced to US$25 million if only 2.5 TCF is certified),

• Acquire the opportunity, within five years after closing the deal, to farm-in for up to 50 percent of Arrow’s interest in any Arrow international project by payment of Shell’s share of sunk costs.

This option excludes Arrow’s three currently held coal seam gas
licenses in India.

bermuda
08-12-2008, 06:31 AM
Hi Shasta,
AOE is a standout share at these prices if you take a long term view. It is run by an ex BP guy, Nick Davies, who really has a balanced long term vision to take this company globally to meet a huge growing LNG market. Arrow have made tremendous strides and are now set up to perform. Their association with Shell is a big plus and their CSG acreage is quite substantial.

PS. That's why I really admire Ron Prefontaine of BOW for getting in and outbidding Arrow for those latest 3 permits which are very juicy indeed.

shasta
08-12-2008, 06:02 PM
Hi Shasta,
AOE is a standout share at these prices if you take a long term view. It is run by an ex BP guy, Nick Davies, who really has a balanced long term vision to take this company globally to meet a huge growing LNG market. Arrow have made tremendous strides and are now set up to perform. Their association with Shell is a big plus and their CSG acreage is quite substantial.

PS. That's why I really admire Ron Prefontaine of BOW for getting in and outbidding Arrow for those latest 3 permits which are very juicy indeed.

AOE - Indian Drilling Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=206392

Bermuda, i like BOW, but in this market i'm playing it a little safer by going for the cashed up mid tier companies

pedro.nz
08-12-2008, 06:36 PM
mmm - AOE has been my biggest holding for some quite time- wonder what the villagers are protesting about? If the police have been involved, must have been a threat to the rig and/or site personal.

Anybody know a bit more about this?

mark100
09-12-2008, 04:33 AM
mmm - AOE has been my biggest holding for some quite time- wonder what the villagers are protesting about? If the police have been involved, must have been a threat to the rig and/or site personal.

Anybody know a bit more about this?

Pedro, I don't know anything about the issue. However I wasn't particularly worried when I read it. I view AOE has been good value simply based on its Australian reserves and production alone. The overseas interests are more longer term, and while they add an element of blue sky, at this stage I regard them as simply having the potential to add icing to the cake

macduffy
09-12-2008, 06:48 AM
I agree with that, Mark.
Australia's the big game for AOE and the rest's a bonus. I know that AOE has global ambitions and that worries me a bit, I just hope that they hang close to Shell if they try to compete in the big league. Or perhaps I'm under-estimating AOE! As a shareholder, I hope so!

;)

shasta
09-12-2008, 06:34 PM
I agree with that, Mark.
Australia's the big game for AOE and the rest's a bonus. I know that AOE has global ambitions and that worries me a bit, I just hope that they hang close to Shell if they try to compete in the big league. Or perhaps I'm under-estimating AOE! As a shareholder, I hope so!

;)

You only have to look at the mistakes BPT made, to realise "going global" isn't always the best use of shareholders funds!

I think the AOE Board/Mgmt are smart enough to grab the overseas opportunities on the cheap for future growth, without taking away there core focus in Australia.

pedro.nz
09-12-2008, 06:58 PM
Hi guys,
I was not worried, just curious as to what the issue was. I have confidence in this company. Once the LNG plant comes into operation, and the infrasturcture etc to support it is complete, then I expect to see the rewards for patience.
Also looking to buy some more when TA shows a higher high etc

shasta
15-12-2008, 06:38 PM
Hi guys,
I was not worried, just curious as to what the issue was. I have confidence in this company. Once the LNG plant comes into operation, and the infrasturcture etc to support it is complete, then I expect to see the rewards for patience.
Also looking to buy some more when TA shows a higher high etc

AOE up 15% today (up 30c) to finish at $2.30...

What's going on?

macduffy
15-12-2008, 06:47 PM
AOE up 15% today (up 30c) to finish at $2.30...

What's going on?

Aussie govt policy on climate change seen as favourable to gas and CSM producers?

;)

shasta
15-12-2008, 06:57 PM
Aussie govt policy on climate change seen as favourable to gas and CSM producers?

;)

Have you got a link for that, i'd like to read it thanks

Didn't see anyone else up that much though...:confused:

macduffy
15-12-2008, 07:21 PM
Have you got a link for that, i'd like to read it thanks

Didn't see anyone else up that much though...:confused:

Nothing specifically AOE-friendly but it raises the consciousness on climate change again. Low emission producers will be longrun winners, IMO.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/big-emission-cuts-ruled-out-20081215-6ymf.html?page=-1

shasta
15-12-2008, 08:03 PM
Nothing specifically AOE-friendly but it raises the consciousness on climate change again. Low emission producers will be longrun winners, IMO.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/big-emission-cuts-ruled-out-20081215-6ymf.html?page=-1

Cheers...

...and to think all that eco friendly gas coming out of dirty coal...

ESI have some interesting clean coal technology...

A speccie but worth a look ;)

macduffy
16-12-2008, 07:09 AM
AOE to benefit from favourable treatment of LNG producers?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24805138-643,00.html

macduffy
22-12-2008, 12:24 PM
AOE in trading halt.

Any ideas out there?

;)

macduffy
22-12-2008, 02:52 PM
All is now revealed.

AOE to take out PES.

;)

yogi-in-oz
25-12-2008, 01:27 AM
:)

Posted 24122008:

Hi folks,

AOE ... here's an overview of our astroanalysis,
over the next couple of months:

05-06012009 ... positive light on AOE

16-19012009 ... 1 x positive & 1 x negative cycle,
posibly flat trading here.

04022009 ... difficult cycle

2602-18032009 ... a difficult period for AOE,
especially regarding finances, so watch for
AOE news/moves, around:

26-27022009 ... difficult news expected

05-06032009 ... negative light on AOE, with
a special focus on finances.

12-16032009 ... a strong & difficult cycle

17-18032008 ... more negative news expected here.

Looking ahead, April-June 2009 should see a lack of
interest and the price fall, significantly.

August-September 2009 should see a recovery in AOE,
but don't get too excited, as March 2010 should bring
some BIGtime negativity into play for AOE.

More later.

Merry Christmas and Happy 2009.

happy days

paul

:)

Jess9
25-12-2008, 06:07 AM
Hi Paul, apologies for of topic. I've watched your calls for awile now and am still curious. HTM (a little NZ gold junior) has had a tough couple of years to date. More of the same 09 or are their stars finally aligning : ) If you could post something when you have time that would be very interesting and appreciated.

Merry Christmas.

PS HTM is dual listed as HGD on NZX

shasta
29-12-2008, 03:05 PM
Hi Paul, apologies for of topic. I've watched your calls for awile now and am still curious. HTM (a little NZ gold junior) has had a tough couple of years to date. More of the same 09 or are their stars finally aligning : ) If you could post something when you have time that would be very interesting and appreciated.

Merry Christmas.

PS HTM is dual listed as HGD on NZX

Whole CSG sector enjoying a fruitful day...

AOE currently up over 30c to around $2.45 :cool:

Was wanting to wait & see the Dec quarterlies out late Jan before buying anything.

Is this another sucker rally, or a trend reversal?

shasta
30-12-2008, 12:06 PM
Whole CSG sector enjoying a fruitful day...

AOE currently up over 30c to around $2.45 :cool:

Was wanting to wait & see the Dec quarterlies out late Jan before buying anything.

Is this another sucker rally, or a trend reversal?

AOE - First instalment from Shell :D

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=206885

AOE will be my first buy in 2009, even before the PES takeover bid, they were due to report there CSG increased certification results in Q1 2009.

The faster they increase there reserves the quicker they receive the Shell money, as well as make good there various supply committments & further monetise there reserves.

I'm expecting AOE to return between 75-100% over 2009 (ie, a $4 SP, Market Cap > $A3b)

Chart looking promising too...

https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/92D47BCBE6C3EB8245F1360E032DEF6E/Research/GetChart.ashx?url=http://asbc.iguana2.com/asb/hist/ASX/AOE/1y/1/cand/30/90/linear/rsi&q=633662399103687207

shasta
01-01-2009, 11:16 PM
Surprise payment for Arrow Energy

ARROW Energy has received the first payment from its June coal seam gas deal with Shell, boosting first-half profit and ensuring it can pay for its $551 million friendly takeover of Pure Energy.

Shares in the Queensland CSG producer rose 9.2 per cent to a six-week high of $2.62 yesterday after it said it received a $315 million payment from Shell and would also report a $20 million gain in financial assets and derivatives for the half.

Shell has not paid the full amount due to Arrow for a 30 per cent stake in its CSG ground because of delays in receiving third-party transfer consents for some tenements.

Another payment of $US220 million is expected from Shell in January.
Last week Arrow said a December deadline for completing the deal would be missed.
Yesterday's payment was earlier than many people had expected.

Arrow said a $400 million profit was forecast for the Shell transaction. a substantial portion of that was expected to be realised in the December half.

Last week, Arrow agreed to buy Queensland CSG player Pure Energy and said it would fund the $269 million cash component of the bid from existing reserves of $85 million and funds from the Shell deal.

The purchase is designed to give Arrow sufficient gas reserves to supply two of the small, 1.5 million tonnes-a-year LNG plants that partner LNG Ltd intends to build at Gladstone.

Shares in Eastern Star Gas fell 8 per cent to 64c yesterday after the company said it had held talks with potential suitors but no deals were in the pipeline. Shares surged on Monday on speculation of a takeover.

mark100
02-01-2009, 02:32 AM
Also remember that PES currently offer a discounted entry into AOE. The AOE offer for PES is a combination of cash and scrip and by purchasing PES at 5.40 you are effectively getting some AOE for $2.23. Of course there is a small risk that the offer doesn't proceed but in my view that chance is almost zero. I bought a few PES last week as a way of increasing my AOE exposure at a discount.

At current prices AOE is still my number 1 pick for 2009 although from a value perspective its now 30% more expensive than it was just 2 weeks ago. At $2 is was fabulous value in my view

shasta
04-01-2009, 01:28 PM
Also remember that PES currently offer a discounted entry into AOE. The AOE offer for PES is a combination of cash and scrip and by purchasing PES at 5.40 you are effectively getting some AOE for $2.23. Of course there is a small risk that the offer doesn't proceed but in my view that chance is almost zero. I bought a few PES last week as a way of increasing my AOE exposure at a discount.

At current prices AOE is still my number 1 pick for 2009 although from a value perspective its now 30% more expensive than it was just 2 weeks ago. At $2 is was fabulous value in my view

Shell on the outer in Queensland gas deal

OIL major Shell says it still wants to play a part in Queensland's burgeoning coal seam gas (CSG) industry.

This is despite indications it has not won access to liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced from reserves it shares with Arrow Energy.

A spokeswoman said Shell was delighted with its CSG deal with Arrow, where it bought a 30 per cent stake in the Brisbane company's reserves as part of a $776million deal. "We look forward to working with Arrow to develop coal seam gas production as a significant energy source for the future," she said.

As part of the deal, Shell was to have the right to buy LNG produced by Arrow's Gladstone project, subject to agreement with plant builder LNG Ltd.

But it now looks like Norwegian LNG shipper Golar, LNG Ltd's biggest shareholder, is in the box seat.

Last week Golar chief executive Gary Smith said he was still talking to LNG Ltd and hoped to finalising an off-take deal soon, indicating the shipper is the preferred buyer LNG Ltd has said it is still negotiating with. If the plant comes on line in 2012, as planned, it would be the first LNG produced from coal seam gas anywhere in the world.

Shell would not comment on the off-take talks.

Indicating that it could still be part of the expected consolidation of the four planned LNG schemes in the region, Shell said it was keen to be part of LNG exports from CSG.

"Shell is interested in coal seam gas, which we see as supporting our drive to grow both our upstream and gas businesses in the area of unconventional oil and gas," the spokeswoman said.

"Shell's LNG expertise in particular -- technical, commercial, financial, marketing -- would be complementary to that of CSG producers."
There are four separate LNG plants planned for Gladstone that would use CSG.

As well as Arrow and LNG Ltd, Santos and Petronas are studying a plant, as is BG Group, while the fourth, and biggest, is being looked at by ConocoPhillips and Origin Energy.

In May 2007, Arrow inked a non-binding heads of agreement with LNG Ltd to supply gas to the planned Gladstone plant. LNG Ltd had hoped to finalise a gas sales agreement with Arrow last year, but a deal has not yet been signed.

Analysts have questioned whether a global major such as Shell would be content with just a 30 per cent stake in Arrow's CSG reserves and no part of an LNG plant or product.

LNG Ltd plans to build a 1.5 million tonnes a year LNG train at Gladstone with a view to following that up with a second train.

Last week Arrow agreed to buy Pure Energy in a $551 million deal that it said would provide it with enough CSG reserves to feed two LNG trains.
LNG Ltd managing director Maurice Brand has been tight lipped about his preferred end user, saying only that Golar was one of five parties involved in off-take and possible equity discussions. "A preferred party has been selected and ongoing discussions with this party and with Arrow as gas supplier are being held," Mr Brand said.

"I hope that the final selection and overall commercial arrangements can be agreed between all parties by mid-January."

shasta
04-01-2009, 01:31 PM
The above article suggests Shell/AOE may not sit on just 10% of LNG, perhaps Shell buys 19.99% of LNG, & sets it up for consolidation? (Shell, AOE & LNG)

I'm thinking of buying AOE up to $3, & then wait for the $5 min takeover

Just some more info re the LNG/AOE link...

I do think there is more activity ahead...

NHC owns ~17% of AOE, who in turn owns 10.3% of LNG.

Any "play" for AOE will involve NHC, likewise for LNG will involve AOE.

From the LNG website...

In December 2007, Arrow Energy Limited acquired a 10.3% shareholding to become the Company's 2nd largest shareholder.

Arrow Energy is one of Australia's leading producers of coal seam gas with significant assets throughout eastern Australia and Asia.

Arrow Energy and the Company have entered into a Heads of Agreement under which Arrow Energy will supply gas to the Company's Gladstone "Fisherman's Landing" LNG Project, at the Port of Gladstone, Queensland.

Arrow Energy and the Company are also co-operating in the identification of other coal seam gas to liquefied natural gas production projects in Australia and Asia.

http://www.lnglimited.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1173
This research report is well worth a read, with comparisons on the 4 proposed plants at Gladstone, & some more indepth info on AOE's involvement.

This is fast becoming a dot joining exercise, it's becoming clear now what just may happen.

impacman
04-01-2009, 07:55 PM
Copied this across from Sharescene and acknowledge VeeOne as the poster.

Arrow Energy says it is geared up for growth, not takeover Clancy Yeates
January 3, 2009
MUCH like its line of business, the coal seam gas producer Arrow Energy came from relative obscurity last year.
In June the Queensland company signed a $776 million deal with the global giant Shell to supply gas to one of several projects looking to export the fuel to Asia. They plan to supply a plant operated by LNG Ltd, which will then export 1.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas a year by 2011-12. This amount is about half of Queensland's yearly gas consumption, and the companies plan to double output after the plant begins production.
To show it is serious, Arrow recently unveiled a $673 million takeover bid for the explorer Pure Energy Resources, in a move which should supply enough gas to meet the LNG target. The project is the smallest of four competing efforts to export coal seam gas from the region, which have attracted about $15 billion in commitments from global oil companies this year.
Considering this, and that Shell normally sets its sights on bigger deals, Arrow seems a possible target for a wave of consolidation in the industry as players look to cut costs.
But the chief executive of Arrow's Australian operations, Shaun Scott, denies the company is preparing to put itself up for sale. Instead, he said the wave of deal-making in the sector was likely to dry up this year. "Fundamentally, the transactions that could have happened have now happened," he told the Herald.
After its bid for Pure Energy, Arrow is the only large coal seam gas specialist left in Queensland, and its NSW rivals are several years behind in proving their reserves. Other possible targets, such as Sunshine Gas and Roma Petroleum, were bought by Queensland Gas - which is owned by BG Group of Britain.
Rather than more takeovers, Mr Scott said the next step for the sector was project-level consolidation, as the complex business of building the multibillion-dollar plants began. Companies are already talking to each other informally in an effort to avoid a squabble over resources and labour.
"Logistically, everyone trying to build their own LNG project at the same location and the same time is going to create some challenges," Mr Scott said.
"Everyone is trying to make sure that their own project … is as strong as possible, so that when those discussions really do begin in earnest as everyone's expecting, you'll be in the strongest position."
Analysts say the vast resources and technical skill required for building LNG plants will cause Queensland LNG rivals to seek merger opportunities.
Another risk is the price of oil, which broadly sets the price of LNG. It was racing towards $US150 a barrel when the flurry of deals were signed in the first half of last year, but is now hovering around $US40. The long-term floor for exporting LNG project is about $US40, so it is fair to assume the companies that put Australian coal seam gas on the world stage will be watching on nervously.
"Yes, we're at the bottom of the cycle, and it's been a particularly nasty one," Mr Scott said. But he is confident oil prices will pick up, and he points out that the futures market is pricing oil at about $US70 a barrel in 2012.
So now that the cheques have been signed, how will the coal seam gas hopefuls navigate the tough environment and deliver on their commitments?
Mr Scott said it was a balancing act between the risky but more lucrative option of proceeding alone, versus the safer but less profitable route of teaming up with a rival.
"Our view is that we are open to pursuing all of those possibilities to see if there's a better outcome than what we're moving forward with."
Coal seam gas may not produce as many multibillion-dollar deals this year as it did last year, but the action looks far from over.
V1

shasta
12-01-2009, 05:29 PM
Copied this across from Sharescene and acknowledge VeeOne as the poster.

Arrow Energy says it is geared up for growth, not takeover Clancy Yeates
January 3, 2009
MUCH like its line of business, the coal seam gas producer Arrow Energy came from relative obscurity last year.
In June the Queensland company signed a $776 million deal with the global giant Shell to supply gas to one of several projects looking to export the fuel to Asia. They plan to supply a plant operated by LNG Ltd, which will then export 1.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas a year by 2011-12. This amount is about half of Queensland's yearly gas consumption, and the companies plan to double output after the plant begins production.
To show it is serious, Arrow recently unveiled a $673 million takeover bid for the explorer Pure Energy Resources, in a move which should supply enough gas to meet the LNG target. The project is the smallest of four competing efforts to export coal seam gas from the region, which have attracted about $15 billion in commitments from global oil companies this year.
Considering this, and that Shell normally sets its sights on bigger deals, Arrow seems a possible target for a wave of consolidation in the industry as players look to cut costs.
But the chief executive of Arrow's Australian operations, Shaun Scott, denies the company is preparing to put itself up for sale. Instead, he said the wave of deal-making in the sector was likely to dry up this year. "Fundamentally, the transactions that could have happened have now happened," he told the Herald.
After its bid for Pure Energy, Arrow is the only large coal seam gas specialist left in Queensland, and its NSW rivals are several years behind in proving their reserves. Other possible targets, such as Sunshine Gas and Roma Petroleum, were bought by Queensland Gas - which is owned by BG Group of Britain.
Rather than more takeovers, Mr Scott said the next step for the sector was project-level consolidation, as the complex business of building the multibillion-dollar plants began. Companies are already talking to each other informally in an effort to avoid a squabble over resources and labour.
"Logistically, everyone trying to build their own LNG project at the same location and the same time is going to create some challenges," Mr Scott said.
"Everyone is trying to make sure that their own project … is as strong as possible, so that when those discussions really do begin in earnest as everyone's expecting, you'll be in the strongest position."
Analysts say the vast resources and technical skill required for building LNG plants will cause Queensland LNG rivals to seek merger opportunities.
Another risk is the price of oil, which broadly sets the price of LNG. It was racing towards $US150 a barrel when the flurry of deals were signed in the first half of last year, but is now hovering around $US40. The long-term floor for exporting LNG project is about $US40, so it is fair to assume the companies that put Australian coal seam gas on the world stage will be watching on nervously.
"Yes, we're at the bottom of the cycle, and it's been a particularly nasty one," Mr Scott said. But he is confident oil prices will pick up, and he points out that the futures market is pricing oil at about $US70 a barrel in 2012.
So now that the cheques have been signed, how will the coal seam gas hopefuls navigate the tough environment and deliver on their commitments?
Mr Scott said it was a balancing act between the risky but more lucrative option of proceeding alone, versus the safer but less profitable route of teaming up with a rival.
"Our view is that we are open to pursuing all of those possibilities to see if there's a better outcome than what we're moving forward with."
Coal seam gas may not produce as many multibillion-dollar deals this year as it did last year, but the action looks far from over.
V1

AOE - Vietnam Exploration Drilling Commences :)

8 well program over 6 months, AOE head down & getting on with it!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207015

impacman
13-01-2009, 08:32 AM
AOE - Vietnam Exploration Drilling Commences :)

8 well program over 6 months, AOE head down & getting on with it!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207015

Just what we like to see!:D

shasta
13-01-2009, 05:55 PM
Just what we like to see!:D

Certainly is, & just to think the increase in reserves certification is due any time this current quarter.

From memory AOE were expecting it to be around 2,000PJ (2P) :cool:

This quarterly will show further increases in gas supplied & revenues.

It's the March Quarterly that will set AOE alight, when the Shell cash shows up in the cashflow report, hopefully the PES deal is all finalised & the revenues keep growing...

I'll be buying in this current quarter ;)

shasta
14-01-2009, 06:04 PM
Certainly is, & just to think the increase in reserves certification is due any time this current quarter.

From memory AOE were expecting it to be around 2,000PJ (2P) :cool:

This quarterly will show further increases in gas supplied & revenues.

It's the March Quarterly that will set AOE alight, when the Shell cash shows up in the cashflow report, hopefully the PES deal is all finalised & the revenues keep growing...

I'll be buying in this current quarter ;)

AOE up to 19.99% of PES :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=434936

Still making all the right moves IMO...

shasta
15-01-2009, 06:00 PM
AOE up to 19.99% of PES :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=434936

Still making all the right moves IMO...

AOE - Proactive Management at the helm, & making all the right moves...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207093

AOE have hopped into bed with some "big boys" of late :eek:

The Big Ease
15-01-2009, 10:50 PM
and still its sp plummets.
i havent been following this closely, what is going on there?

mark100
15-01-2009, 11:12 PM
and still its sp plummets.
i havent been following this closely, what is going on there?

Falling oil and falling markets. AOE generally swings by larger amounts than the market. I see it going sub $2 again. Managed to offload half at $2.70 and will be in the market to buy back at around the $2 level.

Looking longer term, the Russians still haven't resumed fully gas supply to the EU. Talk in all the media that Russia can no longer be viewed as a reliable energy supplier. This will force the EU to look for alternative sources of supply....meaning more demand for Australian LNG in my view

The Big Ease
15-01-2009, 11:32 PM
i doubt there is any speculation about russia anymore.
its all very well to want to be considered a relevant power again (and they are), but youve also got to act like one with responsibility rather than with force alone.

power and no responsibility = thug.
ive been critical of the way the west and in particular the USA have treated russia since the USSR crumbled, but they arent doing themselves any favours at the moment. they may well have a case, but their behaviour is petulant.

it will be interesting to see what this means for australian energy. id guess it would cost significantly more to buy australian gas than russian given the logistics of it all.

shasta
16-01-2009, 11:29 PM
and still its sp plummets.
i havent been following this closely, what is going on there?

Plummets, im afraid not, its at $2.14, & after this quarter i doubt we'll see $2 again...

Once the March quarterly comes out late April, i doubt we'll see $3 again...

Get the picture?

AOE is a little more volatile than the market in general & will go up on market down days, & will go down on market up days, we are still in a bear market & fundamentals don't mean jack sh*t just yet.

In time the fundamentals will come through, meantime use this "opportunity" to buy in/top up while the SP is low.

I see AOE as a growth story & it's SP should double between now & the end of the year, given the state of the markets i''ll take that thanks ;)

shasta
20-01-2009, 12:32 PM
Plummets, im afraid not, its at $2.14, & after this quarter i doubt we'll see $2 again...

Once the March quarterly comes out late April, i doubt we'll see $3 again...

Get the picture?

AOE is a little more volatile than the market in general & will go up on market down days, & will go down on market up days, we are still in a bear market & fundamentals don't mean jack sh*t just yet.

In time the fundamentals will come through, meantime use this "opportunity" to buy in/top up while the SP is low.

I see AOE as a growth story & it's SP should double between now & the end of the year, given the state of the markets i''ll take that thanks ;)

AOE - Agrees with Ephindo to jointly develop CSG/CBM in Indonesia

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207165

Arrow keeps it's head down & goes about it's business, soon to be a truly world wide CSG company.

Can't wait for the certified reserves to be announced.

impacman
20-01-2009, 01:38 PM
AOE - Agrees with Ephindo to jointly develop CSG/CBM in Indonesia

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207165

Arrow keeps it's head down & goes about it's business, soon to be a truly world wide CSG company.

Can't wait for the certified reserves to be announced.

Shasta do you know when they are likely to release the next reserves certification? They just keep delivering consistently - like clockwork. Not sure how the SP will stand in the current environment (am holding off purchasing more until wider Aus Dec reporting comes out as I suspect the whole market might take a negative track and despite the good news etc i don't think AOE will be imune from another market wide decline) - but if it goes below $2 again before then it will be mighty tempting to jump the gun.:D

shasta
20-01-2009, 02:28 PM
Shasta do you know when they are likely to release the next reserves certification? They just keep delivering consistently - like clockwork. Not sure how the SP will stand in the current environment (am holding off purchasing more until wider Aus Dec reporting comes out as I suspect the whole market might take a negative track and despite the good news etc i don't think AOE will be imune from another market wide decline) - but if it goes below $2 again before then it will be mighty tempting to jump the gun.:D

Check page 2, should be in this quarter (1 Jan - 31 March)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=205114

You're right, under $2 again & i'll be jumping the gun too.

AOE is not immune to general market conditions, but is well managed & even blind freddie can see where it's heading.

Shell/AOE/PES/LNG are on track to have the 1st LNG project in production at Gladstone (albeit the smallest project at this point).

I should point out that the market is attributing a rather "rich" P/E ratio on AOE at 37, as it is expecting high growth, any major problems or delays & AOE could be punished harshly.

Kiev Dreams
20-01-2009, 03:49 PM
how safe is this stock if i bought at around $1.75?

u think i can double my money in a year or 2 even if we have a severe recession?

shasta
20-01-2009, 04:07 PM
how safe is this stock if i bought at around $1.75?

u think i can double my money in a year or 2 even if we have a severe recession?

AOE is a mid tier size company with alot of cash (via the Shell deal) & with more to come as they meet certain milestones, so they can weather the storm as they are fully funded.

If you have already brought in at $1.75 you're doing alright (with current SP ~$2.10).

It's more of a technical recession IMO, i believe the next quarter will show zero/minimal growth, so we would be out of a recession, but still at the mercy of the general economic conditions, due to the ongoing credit crunch fallout.

As AOE certifies more 2P reserves, & monetizes them, i expect the SP to head north.

If the markets improve & return bullish there's every chance AOE could double inside 2 years, same as it could end up around $2 at the end of 2009 if the bears remain!

With 4 competing Gladstone LNG projects, there is always the possibility of mergers, corporate takeovers & joint ventures which AOE could well be apart of, but who knows?

For me i cannot see Shell remaining happy to have just a slice of the AOE action, & can see alot of comparisons with Shell & BG, same as QGC & AOE just a bit further behind at the same stage.

Taking over LNG would be the first step for Shell/AOE as that gives them a site in Gladstone & a head start on the competition.

I posted further back in this thread the LNG presentation, which is well worth a read to see where AOE fits in & why i believe Shell will want more.

Trent
20-01-2009, 05:59 PM
AOE is a mid tier size company with alot of cash (via the Shell deal) & with more to come as they meet certain milestones, so they can weather the storm as they are fully funded.

If you have already brought in at $1.75 you're doing alright (with current SP ~$2.10).

It's more of a technical recession IMO, i believe the next quarter will show zero/minimal growth, so we would be out of a recession, but still at the mercy of the general economic conditions, due to the ongoing credit crunch fallout.

As AOE certifies more 2P reserves, & monetizes them, i expect the SP to head north.

If the markets improve & return bullish there's every chance AOE could double inside 2 years, same as it could end up around $2 at the end of 2009 if the bears remain!

With 4 competing Gladstone LNG projects, there is always the possibility of mergers, corporate takeovers & joint ventures which AOE could well be apart of, but who knows?

For me i cannot see Shell remaining happy to have just a slice of the AOE action, & can see alot of comparisons with Shell & BG, same as QGC & AOE just a bit further behind at the same stage.

Taking over LNG would be the first step for Shell/AOE as that gives them a site in Gladstone & a head start on the competition.

I posted further back in this thread the LNG presentation, which is well worth a read to see where AOE fits in & why i believe Shell will want more.

Shasta
I agree with you on the matter of T/Os. It's just a matter of time until Shell makes an offer for AOE.

I note that the recent AOE director statement indicating that the company is looking at ways to share the risk on the LNG development. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I remember reading recently that Shell were in discussions with LNG over funding of the initial LNG development. Have not seen an update on the proposed funding. FID is due later this year? Let's hope it is not deferred
T

shasta
20-01-2009, 07:17 PM
Shasta
I agree with you on the matter of T/Os. It's just a matter of time until Shell makes an offer for AOE.

I note that the recent AOE director statement indicating that the company is looking at ways to share the risk on the LNG development. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I remember reading recently that Shell were in discussions with LNG over funding of the initial LNG development. Have not seen an update on the proposed funding. FID is due later this year? Let's hope it is not deferred
T

As it stands AOE own just under 10% of LNG, & have an agreement/option to have a 20% participation in the LNG project.

LNG/AOE have an agreement that AOE provides the gas...

The ducks are being lined up by Shell surely?

impacman
21-01-2009, 12:33 PM
Check page 2, should be in this quarter (1 Jan - 31 March)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=205114

You're right, under $2 again & i'll be jumping the gun too.

AOE is not immune to general market conditions, but is well managed & even blind freddie can see where it's heading.

Shell/AOE/PES/LNG are on track to have the 1st LNG project in production at Gladstone (albeit the smallest project at this point).

I should point out that the market is attributing a rather "rich" P/E ratio on AOE at 37, as it is expecting high growth, any major problems or delays & AOE could be punished harshly.


Thanks for that - does seem to be indicating some time soon for upgrade. I had wondered about the high PE, particularly in this environment. All part of the risk/reward profile of growth stocks like this. Personally I see greater chance of reward in the medium term.

shasta
21-01-2009, 01:41 PM
Thanks for that - does seem to be indicating some time soon for upgrade. I had wondered about the high PE, particularly in this environment. All part of the risk/reward profile of growth stocks like this. Personally I see greater chance of reward in the medium term.

AOE - Has 19.98% of PES, & agreements for up to 49.98%

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=435379

I'm betting AOE's next move will be for LNG.

Interesting that Shell's 11% in PES will accept the AOE offer!

shasta
21-01-2009, 02:54 PM
AOE - Has 19.98% of PES, & agreements for up to 49.98%

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=435379

I'm betting AOE's next move will be for LNG.

Interesting that Shell's 11% in PES will accept the AOE offer!

AOE - Arrow closes International Investment by Shell

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207197

Close to another $A100m received ($US66m) :cool:

shasta
22-01-2009, 06:23 PM
AOE - Arrow closes International Investment by Shell

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207197

Close to another $A100m received ($US66m) :cool:

Here's what AOE is buying with the T/O of PES...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=435533

AOE pretty much has the gas for 2 LNG trains at Gladstone :eek:

impacman
22-01-2009, 07:17 PM
Here's what AOE is buying with the T/O of PES...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=435533

AOE pretty much has the gas for 2 LNG trains at Gladstone :eek:


Thanks once again for the updates Shasta - much appreciated.:)

shasta
22-01-2009, 07:23 PM
Thanks once again for the updates Shasta - much appreciated.:)

No worries, i'm still to hit the trigger on AOE but will try & time my purchase before the certified results are announced...

AOE are pretty much tracking what QGC did, not a bad example to follow aye?

shasta
30-01-2009, 06:21 PM
PES - Quarterly Report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=436438

2P reserves 394PJ
3P reserves 2472PJ
Contingent 5,797PJ

AOE is well funded to convert those 3P reserves into 2P & monetise them

shasta
02-02-2009, 04:21 PM
AOE -Quarterley Activities Report (reserves certification out early Feb?)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207460

Cashflow Report (nearly $300m cash on hand!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207461

shasta
05-02-2009, 04:30 PM
AOE -Quarterley Activities Report (reserves certification out early Feb?)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207460

Cashflow Report (nearly $300m cash on hand!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207461

AOE - Earnings Guidance - $345m pre tax profit - half year to Dec 08 :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207580

Most of the profit is the gain of sale to Shell (of the 30% transaction for a $310m profit)

shasta
05-02-2009, 04:42 PM
AOE - Earnings Guidance - $345m pre tax profit - half year to Dec 08 :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207580

Most of the profit is the gain of sale to Shell (of the 30% transaction for a $310m profit)

AOE - Major Reserve Upgrade (Here's what we have been waiting for!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207583

Pity i never got in before the ann came out... :(

STRAT
05-02-2009, 06:20 PM
AOE - Major Reserve Upgrade (Here's what we have been waiting for!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207583

Pity i never got in before the ann came out... :(

It will be interesting to see if the Bear responds tomorrow Shasta and if so how much. A bit of a yardstick for others due some announcements in the near future perhaps?

shasta
05-02-2009, 06:34 PM
It will be interesting to see if the Bear responds tomorrow Shasta and if so how much. A bit of a yardstick for others due some announcements in the near future perhaps?

Last couple of quarterlies mentioned it would come about now.

AOE is well funded, so i would include them in the "safehaven" list

pedro.nz
08-02-2009, 05:57 PM
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25018421-643,00.html

OIL major Shell, a minor player in Queensland's burgeoning liquid natural gas industry, plans to build an export plant at Gladstone.
Confirming speculation that the UK oil and gas giant was not content with a simple stake in coal seam gas (CSG) reserves, local partner Arrow Energy said bigger plans would be announced as soon as this quarter.
"Shell is in a big-picture play," Arrow Australia chief executive Shaun Scott said in Brisbane. "We are working on ... a medium to long term plan and you can expect it to be something significant."
Asked if the plans would involve even more LNG units in Gladstone, Mr Scott replied: "Absolutely."
As majors such as BG Group and ConocoPhillips have swooped on Gladstone, Shell has been a small, quiet investor.
It has a 30 per cent interest in Arrow's local reserves after a $776 million deal struck this year. This compares with billions of dollars spent by each of the other groups.
Arrow's other partner, LNG Ltd, is believed to have chosen its major shareholder, Norwegian shipper Golar, over Shell to take product from its planned LNG plant.
Arrow has a non-binding agreement to supply LNG Ltd's plant, which will contain up to two LNG trains, each capable of handling 1.5 million tonnes a year.
Mr Scott said consolidation of the big projects was likely to occur down the track.

mark100
08-02-2009, 10:33 PM
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25018421-643,00.html

OIL major Shell, a minor player in Queensland's burgeoning liquid natural gas industry, plans to build an export plant at Gladstone.
Confirming speculation that the UK oil and gas giant was not content with a simple stake in coal seam gas (CSG) reserves, local partner Arrow Energy said bigger plans would be announced as soon as this quarter.
"Shell is in a big-picture play," Arrow Australia chief executive Shaun Scott said in Brisbane. "We are working on ... a medium to long term plan and you can expect it to be something significant."
Asked if the plans would involve even more LNG units in Gladstone, Mr Scott replied: "Absolutely."
As majors such as BG Group and ConocoPhillips have swooped on Gladstone, Shell has been a small, quiet investor.
It has a 30 per cent interest in Arrow's local reserves after a $776 million deal struck this year. This compares with billions of dollars spent by each of the other groups.
Arrow's other partner, LNG Ltd, is believed to have chosen its major shareholder, Norwegian shipper Golar, over Shell to take product from its planned LNG plant.
Arrow has a non-binding agreement to supply LNG Ltd's plant, which will contain up to two LNG trains, each capable of handling 1.5 million tonnes a year.
Mr Scott said consolidation of the big projects was likely to occur down the track.

And I can't see Shell being willing to only have a minority interest in the gas reserves feeding the LNG plant. Arrow is looking more and more vulnerable to a bid in my view. I remember just before QGC was taken out Cottee was saying QGC would remain independent etc etc. And now last week Shaun Scott is all through the media saying similar things....

The Big Ease
08-02-2009, 11:09 PM
good pick up mark.

macduffy
09-02-2009, 12:34 PM
AOE up 18.5% on indications that someone else is bidding for AOE's prey!
Market clearly believes that AOE will be next in "someone's" takeover sights.

;)

shasta
09-02-2009, 06:10 PM
AOE - Looks set to make some $$$ outta PES, or secure there reserves, = win/win

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207661

Anyone wanting to takover AOE, will need NHC's ~17% (before any PES takeover script dillution)

If AOE runs any harder i may just go for NHC, esp with the juicy dividend due Nov 09!

MrDevine
09-02-2009, 06:16 PM
I added some more Arrows to go with my BOWs today. BG have played an interesting hand here, and I would not be surprised to see Shell make a bid for AOE at $4 per share, which would value the T/O for PES at $7.34, very attractive for PES holders, although I note that BG already have 10% of PES already.

I was looking at PES in October last year, at about $1.70. CSG only market to be in at the moment.

Mr D holding with interest!

macduffy
09-02-2009, 07:33 PM
Anyone wanting to takover AOE, will need NHC's ~17% (before any PES takeover script dillution) QUOTE.

I don't see NHC ( or rather, 61% shareholder SOL ) giving that up easily.
I nice position for AOE, NHC and SOL all round!

;)

mark100
09-02-2009, 09:49 PM
Shell could bid for AOE, pushing up the implied value for PES to over $7. Combined with the CGT rollover relief for the AOE scrip component of the PES bid it would be more attractive than BG's bid.

AOE could then declare their bid unconditional at 50% of acceptances rather than 90%. That should see them get a majority holding in PES with BG being left with 10%. Transalantic have just done a similar with their IPM bid and COE ended up selling to Transatlantic

shasta
11-02-2009, 05:31 PM
Shell could bid for AOE, pushing up the implied value for PES to over $7. Combined with the CGT rollover relief for the AOE scrip component of the PES bid it would be more attractive than BG's bid.

AOE could then declare their bid unconditional at 50% of acceptances rather than 90%. That should see them get a majority holding in PES with BG being left with 10%. Transalantic have just done a similar with their IPM bid and COE ended up selling to Transatlantic

AOE - Completes next stage of $A1b Shell CSG Alliance

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207694

Waiting for a retrace before entering as i'm not a fan of chasing stocks!

shasta
11-02-2009, 08:43 PM
AOE - Revised Offer

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=437781

AOE are bidding up the BG offer...

Cheque books out (won't PES holders be happy!)

MrDevine
11-02-2009, 08:47 PM
hmmm yes, be interesting to see if the market likes that, I notice a lot of shorts running AOE as they are ORG atm.

Ann out today stipulating Shell has give AOE some more money a bit of a tip off that they were going to increase the offer.

Excellent outcome for PES holders!

Mr D.

bermuda
11-02-2009, 09:40 PM
hmmm yes, be interesting to see if the market likes that, I notice a lot of shorts running AOE as they are ORG atm.

Ann out today stipulating Shell has give AOE some more money a bit of a tip off that they were going to increase the offer.

Excellent outcome for PES holders!

Mr D.

Just booked my fares to the Sydney Oil and Gas Conference. This will be a riot.

This CSG business surely gives you a buzz eh!!!

Oh dear, BG have got themselves into a real pickle. They have HUGE commitments. Watch out now for a real bun fight. Thank goodness VPE have some very astute shareholders on Board and that Arrow have a shareholding in BOW. Oh dear oh dear.

BG MUST secure additional large quantities of CSG. No wonder the Sentient boys and the QGC boys got stuck into VPE...and no wonder that the BOW Directors have been buying into BOW at 37 cents.

It is at times like these that I wished I had more BOW and VPE. Thanks for those latest postings. far out. BG will be spitting tacks.

Thanks Shasta for this latest info. You sure keep up with the play.

The Big Ease
11-02-2009, 09:45 PM
yeah this is hot.
but its pretty clear who will take out bow (aoe) and vpe (bg).
best thing for VPE is for AOE to win the duel for PES.

The Big Ease
12-02-2009, 11:42 AM
BG set to revise its offer.
this is massive.

shasta
12-02-2009, 04:44 PM
No flies on Shell either, the action is starting to get hot!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207723

Question is for how much longer are Shell & AOE going to be separate companies?

shasta
12-02-2009, 05:48 PM
Shell NZ puts all downstream NZ business under review

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10556440

Now why would Shell want to free up some capital for?

shasta
12-02-2009, 07:34 PM
AOE - Concord selling down @ the wrong time?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207735

I'm stunned they aren't waiting to see how the PES deal goes?

macduffy
13-02-2009, 08:01 AM
AOE - Concord selling down @ the wrong time?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207735

I'm stunned they aren't waiting to see how the PES deal goes?

Yes, I wonder what they are putting the cash into?

Or perhaps they have redemptions or other commitments to meet.

:confused:

mark100
13-02-2009, 08:56 AM
Yes, I wonder what they are putting the cash into?

Or perhaps they have redemptions or other commitments to meet.

:confused:

I've learnt during my time trading shares to ignore what the funds are doing. The Matthews Fund sold down STO to under $11 and PES to under $1.50 last October

shasta
13-02-2009, 05:59 PM
I've learnt during my time trading shares to ignore what the funds are doing. The Matthews Fund sold down STO to under $11 and PES to under $1.50 last October

AOE - Bidders Statement for PES

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=437950

PES Directors approve " in the absence of..." :D

PES - Operations Update:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=437963

shasta
16-02-2009, 06:18 PM
AOE - Bidders Statement for PES

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=437950

PES Directors approve " in the absence of..." :D

PES - Operations Update:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=437963

Arrow weighs options to sell more gas to Shell


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25044072-5005200,00.html

shasta
17-02-2009, 05:17 PM
AOE - MD Open Briefing & Strategy

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207816

Note, AOE does not require PES to meet its Gladstone committments!

I say if BG out bid them, take the money & drill half of Queensland looking for more gas!

shasta
17-02-2009, 05:19 PM
BG offer $8.00 per share!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=438164

mark100
17-02-2009, 11:06 PM
I reckon AOE will up the bid one more time and I epect BG will counter again. At that point I reckon AOE should take their approx $200m from their PES shares and run. AOE will then be a sitting duck for themselves to be taken over. Just what I want.
I purchased a few more PES today as well. Downside was 4%, upside another 20%

shasta
18-02-2009, 08:27 PM
I reckon AOE will up the bid one more time and I epect BG will counter again. At that point I reckon AOE should take their approx $200m from their PES shares and run. AOE will then be a sitting duck for themselves to be taken over. Just what I want.
I purchased a few more PES today as well. Downside was 4%, upside another 20%

PES - Ann increase in reserves

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=438347

AOE - Further CSG progess Overseas

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207868

The retrace i thought would happen, hasn't as yet...:confused:

impacman
19-02-2009, 08:58 AM
PES - Ann increase in reserves

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=438347

AOE - Further CSG progess Overseas

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=207868

The retrace i thought would happen, hasn't as yet...:confused:

Yes I have been waiting for it as well but no joy. Starting to wonder if I may have missed the $2ish or under opportunities that existed a short time ago. Not sure what is happening but in my relatively short time in CSG (AOE - have held for about 2 years) the sector seems to go bullish and then flitter out a bit - I think someone earlier stated that it coincided with corporate activity e.g. BG and Org, which makes sense. Hopefully the Sp will pull back to my preferred buy level.

On another matter Shasta I was wondering if you have any views on IRN? There is a seperate thread on it and I don't think you have commented. If you do have any views I would appreciate your thoughts - probably via IRN thread. Thanks.

shasta
23-02-2009, 06:04 PM
Yes I have been waiting for it as well but no joy. Starting to wonder if I may have missed the $2ish or under opportunities that existed a short time ago. Not sure what is happening but in my relatively short time in CSG (AOE - have held for about 2 years) the sector seems to go bullish and then flitter out a bit - I think someone earlier stated that it coincided with corporate activity e.g. BG and Org, which makes sense. Hopefully the Sp will pull back to my preferred buy level.

On another matter Shasta I was wondering if you have any views on IRN? There is a seperate thread on it and I don't think you have commented. If you do have any views I would appreciate your thoughts - probably via IRN thread. Thanks.

PES or no PES, Arrow going about it's business quietly...

Indonesian Farm In

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208004

Arrow news re Gladstone/LNG

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208006

PES - Target Statement

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=438700

Am still waiting for AOE to retrace a bit more, else i'll buy NHC instead & gain exposure indirectly ;)

bermuda
23-02-2009, 08:44 PM
PES or no PES, Arrow going about it's business quietly...

Indonesian Farm In

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208004

Arrow news re Gladstone/LNG

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208006

PES - Target Statement

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=438700

Am still waiting for AOE to retrace a bit more, else i'll buy NHC instead & gain exposure indirectly ;)

The more I look at this company, the more I like it. But I have to admit it is only a 3 bagger. But a very solid one at that.

The Big Ease
23-02-2009, 08:49 PM
so bermuda,

it might be VPE into AOE into BOW. i dont think any of them will be standing in 18 months.

shasta
23-02-2009, 08:49 PM
The more I look at this company, the more I like it.

I'm greedy & opportunistic, & think AOE will fall back below $2.20.

Probably then i'll pounce, i had $2 in mind, but as i predicted the quarterly got noticed & the SP went north. :rolleyes:

AOE should do quite nicely, even if BG get PES. plenty more $$$...

As you can see AOE, are still drilling in Australia & Vietnam, & soon to be in Indonesia, China & India.

No wonder Shell wanted 30% of the International permits & 10% of the Australian permits...

I like the Shell/AOE angle with LNG/Golar :cool:

mark100
23-02-2009, 10:37 PM
I'm greedy & opportunistic, & think AOE will fall back below $2.20.

Probably then i'll pounce, i had $2 in mind, but as i predicted the quarterly got noticed & the SP went north. :rolleyes:

AOE should do quite nicely, even if BG get PES. plenty more $$$...

As you can see AOE, are still drilling in Australia & Vietnam, & soon to be in Indonesia, China & India.

No wonder Shell wanted 30% of the International permits & 10% of the Australian permits...

I like the Shell/AOE angle with LNG/Golar :cool:

Shell actually took 30% of the Australian permits and 10% of the international permits

impacman
24-02-2009, 08:44 AM
I'm greedy & opportunistic, & think AOE will fall back below $2.20.

Probably then i'll pounce, i had $2 in mind, but as i predicted the quarterly got noticed & the SP went north. :rolleyes:

AOE should do quite nicely, even if BG get PES. plenty more $$$...

As you can see AOE, are still drilling in Australia & Vietnam, & soon to be in Indonesia, China & India.

No wonder Shell wanted 30% of the International permits & 10% of the Australian permits...

I like the Shell/AOE angle with LNG/Golar :cool:


Yeah I'm starting to think 2.20 might be as good as it gets:( Still given where it will go I don't think that is too bad! I will just keep waiting for that retracement.

Cheers

yogi-in-oz
24-02-2009, 10:53 AM
Posted 24122008:

Hi folks,

AOE ... here's an overview of our astroanalysis,
over the next couple of months:

05-06012009 ... positive light on AOE

16-19012009 ... 1 x positive & 1 x negative cycle,
posibly flat trading here.

04022009 ... difficult cycle

2602-18032009 ... a difficult period for AOE,
especially regarding finances, so watch for
AOE news/moves, around:

26-27022009 ... difficult news expected

05-06032009 ... negative light on AOE, with
a special focus on finances.

12-16032009 ... a strong & difficult cycle

17-18032008 ... more negative news expected here.

Looking ahead, April-June 2009 should see a lack of
interest and the price fall, significantly.

August-September 2009 should see a recovery in AOE,
but don't get too excited, as March 2010 should bring
some BIGtime negativity into play for AOE.

More later.

Merry Christmas and Happy 2009.

happy days

paul



:)

Hi folks,

AOE ... technically, indicators have turned down, just ahead of a negative
period, expected between 2602-18032009 .....

..... see post above for further details.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

shasta
26-02-2009, 06:07 PM
:)

Hi folks,

AOE ... technically, indicators have turned down, just ahead of a negative
period, expected between 2602-18032009 .....

..... see post above for further details.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

PES - Bidders Statement, no surprise they support the BG offer

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PES&E=ASX&N=439112

AOE - Update on PES bid

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208151

AOE - Half Year Accounts

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208155

AOE - Media Release

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208156

AOE - Presentation of Results

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208157

Some light reading folks & the market likes the story & results :D

macduffy
26-02-2009, 07:20 PM
Some light reading folks & the market likes the story & results QUOTE.

And why not!
AOE will be a winner whatever happens. A leader in CSM and 20.2% holder in PES. At the very least will clean up nicely on that holding but more likely to come to some JV arrangement with BG, IMO.

:cool:

shasta
26-02-2009, 07:28 PM
Some light reading folks & the market likes the story & results QUOTE.

And why not!
AOE will be a winner whatever happens. A leader in CSM and 20.2% holder in PES. At the very least will clean up nicely on that holding but more likely to come to some JV arrangement with BG, IMO.

:cool:

Yeah, i'm going to have to pay up now, serves me right :o

The retrace doesn't look likely any time soon (Yogi thinks otherwise?)

I'm thinking AOE will take the cash off BG, & have a go at LNG.

That would give AOE a site in Gladstone, with an offtake arrangement inplace (with Golar) & the first LNG project up & running.

Of course Shell have bigger plans & may go after Golar themselves...:rolleyes:

I agree with you Macduffy, AOE will be in the mix & will have to grow by acquistion or risk becoming the prey.

MrDevine
27-02-2009, 08:55 AM
I sold out yesterday, things are going to get messy with PES, not sure the market likes that uncertainty. I speculated that Shell would takeover AOE, and they still might. Thats cool, made 20% profit on my small holding, will use proceeds to reinvest in BOW once hype dies down a little and for capital raising entitlement.


Mr D.

mark100
27-02-2009, 10:24 AM
Now that BG has 30% of PES and AOE/Shell have 30% there is only 40% of PES left in play. AOE will be happy with 51% I would imagine. So if AOE lift their offer now the max amount of PES they have to pay for is just 40%. BG can't accept the AOE bid because they have already said they don't want AOE shares (truth in takeovers legislation).

Yet if BG raise their bid there is a chance AOE/Shell could accept the bid so BG would potentially have to pay for 90% of PES at the higher price (directors who have accepted would still get the higher bid).

So having the independent PES directors accept the BG bid potentially made it easier for AOE to increase the bid in order to get to 51%-70% of PES without having to pay as much in total. Hope that makes sense to anyone reading!

Still holding PES and AOE at this stage although I wasn't a great fan of AOE's result when you look at the underlying numbers. However it seems growing reserves is the main game in town for the moment and that's what AOE is doing.

mark100
27-02-2009, 10:58 AM
BG increases bid to $8.25 conditional on getting 90%, otherwise it stays at $8. They also said the bid was final.

This opens the door for AOE to increase their bid and acquire enough PES shares to get 51% or the pressure will be on them to accept BG's offer

macduffy
03-03-2009, 07:00 PM
Shell have announced they will accept BG's offer for their Pure shares.

Next move is up to AOE - either accept and take the cash, raise its offer and/or find another target. Maybe VPE or BOW?

bermuda
03-03-2009, 08:57 PM
Shell have announced they will accept BG's offer for their Pure shares.

Next move is up to AOE - either accept and take the cash, raise its offer and/or find another target. Maybe VPE or BOW?


Oh Dear, it is all over for AOE. Without Shell they cant do it. I really felt that they would defend their baby to the death. They will be hurting over this for a lot of reasons. They created this company and in my opinion really stuffed up in trying to aquire it.
I cannot see why Davies delayed this purchase. He could have got it a year ago. I have a lot of time for this guy but if he doesnt "retain" Pure he will be gutted. Okay , I know the money is good, but they delivered this baby, nurtured it and forgot to buy it early.

Anyway,

AOE need gas, PERIOD.

It was a brilliant move by Ron (BOW) to get those permits last October. I have got a pretty good feeling AOE were gutted by this. These are quality permits.

Have Arrow got a chance? I think they have decided enough is enough. Take the money and run.....and we need GAS.

So yes, you would have to assume they will be looking around. And BOW does have some very very good permits. Permits that Arrow themselves got outbid on.

I would be happy to accept $2.00 even though I know they will be worth a lot more in the future. But Hey, this is all speculation.

mark100
03-03-2009, 09:36 PM
Oh Dear, it is all over for AOE. Without Shell they cant do it. I really felt that they would defend their baby to the death. They will be hurting over this for a lot of reasons. They created this company and in my opinion really stuffed up in trying to aquire it.
I cannot see why Davies delayed this purchase. He could have got it a year ago. I have a lot of time for this guy but if he doesnt "retain" Pure he will be gutted. Okay , I know the money is good, but they delivered this baby, nurtured it and forgot to buy it early.

Anyway,

AOE need gas, PERIOD.

It was a brilliant move by Ron (BOW) to get those permits last October. I have got a pretty good feeling AOE were gutted by this. These are quality permits.

Have Arrow got a chance? I think they have decided enough is enough. Take the money and run.....and we need GAS.

So yes, you would have to assume they will be looking around. And BOW does have some very very good permits. Permits that Arrow themselves got outbid on.

I would be happy to accept $2.00 even though I know they will be worth a lot more in the future. But Hey, this is all speculation.

bermuda I think you over dramatise the situation a bit. At least AOE bank $200m pre tax if they sell. That stake was worth less than 15% of that amount a few months back so while they may have missed out on the gas they had the value of their stake revalued!

BOW's new permits might be good but i doubt AOE is gutted from missing out on them. They still have plenty of other ground to drill. Its Ron who keeps saying how good the new permits are but he said the same about Don Juan over 18 months ago. Yet he still hasn't delivered any reserves to the market. Sure, Ron might now a bit about CSG from his earlier association with Arrow but he's been running BOW for several years now. He only seems to have jumped on the CSG bandwagon when everyone else did. ie 2007/2008.

MrDevine
03-03-2009, 09:54 PM
Mark, we should give Bermuda some credit here, he is a major shareholder in BOW and a cheerleader of course. However all CSG assets weren't really on any radars until 18 months ago. AOE spun out both PES and BOW when CSG wasn't seen as a viable energy source. For AOE to lose PES is a predicament for them as they need to keep building reserves to make those plants work.

RPM got sold to QGC for $50m with no proven reserves only a desktop study, I'm sure Mr Prefontaine will want to have 'runs on the board' and to offload the company to either BG or AOE/Shell within the next 24 months. But as Bermuda says its all speculation until there are PJ's certified. I didn't follow PES that closely but I'm sure they were priming the market in the same way BOW has been.

I sold AOE last week at $2.70, my thinking was Shell would come in and take AOE out to do this deal. But it seems Shell are quite keen on JV partnerships. AOE appears a quality company based on its latest report.

Mr D watching with interest.

mark100
03-03-2009, 10:04 PM
Mark, we should give Bermuda some credit here, he is a major shareholder in BOW and a cheerleader of course. However all CSG assets weren't really on any radars until 18 months ago. AOE spun out both PES and BOW when CSG wasn't seen as a viable energy source. For AOE to lose PES is a predicament for them as they need to keep building reserves to make those plants work.

RPM got sold to QGC for $50m with no proven reserves only a desktop study, I'm sure Mr Prefontaine will want to have 'runs on the board' and to offload the company to either BG or AOE/Shell within the next 24 months. But as Bermuda says its all speculation until there are PJ's certified. I didn't follow PES that closely but I'm sure they were priming the market in the same way BOW has been.

I sold AOE last week at $2.70, my thinking was Shell would come in and take AOE out to do this deal. But it seems Shell are quite keen on JV partnerships. AOE appears a quality company based on its latest report.

Mr D watching with interest.

Mr D I trade AOE on almost a daily basis, in this market its pretty much the only way to make some coin.

At no point did AOE consider CSG not to be a viable energy source, that is their primary business! AOE didn't 'spin out' PES, they put some seed capital into the IPO, hence their original shareholding. A lot different from selling their ground into PES. And when AOE spun out BOW they didn't give BOW any CSG ground. BOW got AOE's old oil assets.

So at no point did AOE give away any CSG ground, why would they, AOE and QGC were the only believers in CSG early on (much earlier then 2007).

Huang Chung
03-03-2009, 11:26 PM
Mark, what about AOE offering to take Beach's share of Tipton West off their hands?

mark100
04-03-2009, 05:12 AM
Mark, what about AOE offering to take Beach's share of Tipton West off their hands?

It would have to be on the cards HC. BPT's net share of the Tipton Beach reserves are around 450PJ of 2P and 1115PJ of 3P. That could cost around $430m based on the 3P metrics of the PES deal.

However PES offered a 100% operating interest along with other undrilled ground. The Tipton West stake that BPT is offering is a minority non-operating interest. Therefore I would expect it to change hands for less than the PES reserve multiples.

I note Wilson HTM value BPT's stake at around $270m and UBS value it at $300m. I reckon those numbers seem about right.

If AOE could pick up the Tipton West stake for say $300m it would be a good way to quickly add over 1000PJ of 3P for only $100m more than they could sell their PES shares for. Obviously Tipton West doesn't offer the same upside as PES and all its ground.

macduffy
04-03-2009, 07:28 AM
If BPT could pick up the Tipton West stake for say $300m it would be a good way to quickly add over 1000PJ of 3P for only $100m more than they could sell their PES shares for. Obviously Tipton West doesn't offer the same upside as PES and all its ground.
QUOTE.

Slip of the pen/key, Mark!

It's AOE that might pick up BPT's 40% of course. In fact, BPT announced a couple of months ago that they are actively seeking offers for this asset.

;)

mark100
04-03-2009, 08:02 AM
If BPT could pick up the Tipton West stake for say $300m it would be a good way to quickly add over 1000PJ of 3P for only $100m more than they could sell their PES shares for. Obviously Tipton West doesn't offer the same upside as PES and all its ground.
QUOTE.

Slip of the pen/key, Mark!

It's AOE that might pick up BPT's 40% of course. In fact, BPT announced a couple of months ago that they are actively seeking offers for this asset.

;)

haha very true macduffy. Sometimes the head is thinking faster than the fingers can type and it come out all wrong! I've edited my post so I don't confuse anyone

shasta
05-03-2009, 07:50 PM
haha very true macduffy. Sometimes the head is thinking faster than the fingers can type and it come out all wrong! I've edited my post so I don't confuse anyone

AOE - Drilling in China ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208434

AOE still quietly going about there business...

Perhaps the funds from the sale of there PES shares can go into fast tracking the Chinese, Indian & Vietnamese projects?

impacman
16-03-2009, 12:00 PM
Looks like they have formally closed their PES offer and are starting to spend their money elsewhere:) ASX announcements out today.

shasta
16-03-2009, 04:36 PM
Looks like they have formally closed their PES offer and are starting to spend their money elsewhere:) ASX announcements out today.

Here's the link

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=208658

Thats what i like about AOE, they are quietly building up several projects with the Shell money funding it all.

AOE is now a takeover target during 2009, & i wouldn't rule out Shell moving in sooner than later

impacman
17-03-2009, 08:34 AM
I suspect my hopes for a retracement (even a modest one - not the <$2.00 I was thinking about a few months ago) are a bit optimistic. Might have to get in around current price. Decisions, decisions, decisions - will probably just watch for a bit longer!:rolleyes:

mark100
17-03-2009, 09:05 AM
I suspect my hopes for a retracement (even a modest one - not the <$2.00 I was thinking about a few months ago) are a bit optimistic. Might have to get in around current price. Decisions, decisions, decisions - will probably just watch for a bit longer!:rolleyes:

Don't worry its bound to fall now. Last night on Lateline Business (in Aust), Charlie Aitken said Arrow looked good value. Last Friday arvo he wrote STO was good buying. It promptly fell 7% the next trading day...

impacman
17-03-2009, 09:49 AM
Its funny you should say that as I was thinking last week i had missed the jump on STO and it certainly came back yesterday - fortune favours the patient perhaps. Just got this half feeling that this rally may be a bit more than a short dead cat bounce (another one) - not that there would appear to be any weighy economic info out there that supports that half feeling.

STRAT
24-03-2009, 10:55 AM
Done and dusted

Arrow Accepts BG Offer for Pure Energy.

I wonder how this will impact on the rest of the Queensland CSG sector?

bermuda
24-03-2009, 11:49 AM
Done and dusted

Arrow Accepts BG Offer for Pure Energy.

I wonder how this will impact on the rest of the Queensland CSG sector?

Hi Strat,
AOE are sitting pretty with cash but they would have hated seeing their baby Pure go to BG.

AOE could now use the money to develop further CSG drills on their own acreage, aquire BPT or look at BOW...or a combination. They know BOW pretty well and have a shareholding and Board representation.

STRAT
24-03-2009, 11:54 AM
Hi Strat,
AOE are sitting pretty with cash but they would have hated seeing their baby Pure go to BG.

AOE could now use the money to develop further CSG drills on their own acreage, aquire BPT or look at BOW...or a combination. They know BOW pretty well and have a shareholding and Board representation.Hi Bermuda,
You must be tickled pink with BOW. All you need now is a take over bidding war :D
VPE going strong too. I thought both were running out of steam but after last nights result with the DOW and the POO I think they both may get their second wind.

MrDevine
24-03-2009, 12:41 PM
For an Arrow to fly they need to buy a Bow. I would be more than happy to accept a cash and scrip bid from an Arrow. I think AOE has some tax 'problems' with this PES money, they may spend it – BOW says it may release some comet data in June…

Mr D.

bermuda
24-03-2009, 01:10 PM
For an Arrow to fly they need to buy a Bow. I would be more than happy to accept a cash and scrip bid from an Arrow. I think AOE has some tax 'problems' with this PES money, they may spend it – BOW says it may release some comet data in June…

Mr D.

Good call Mr D.

mark100
25-03-2009, 01:10 AM
From a report issued today:

Arrow Energy Limited
$400m net cash and 40 tcf deserves attention

AOE offers high quality exposure to the Australian CSG industry and thus
is a play on future Asian energy demand via the proposed east coast LNG
industry. We believe AOE is deeply undervalued given its large reserve
and resource position, multiple channels to market, high margin
downstream integration and its strategic alliance with Shell. We expect
continued strong growth in reserves and production based on AOE’s work
program and track record. We reinstate our Buy recommendation with a
price target of $A5.55 /share. Our target is set at a 20% discount to our 12-
month forward DCF of $6.95 to reflect market conditions.

Key Points

AOE is Australia’s largest “pure” CSG company and has a dominant CSG
reserve and contingent resource position, exceeding that of other Australian
sector participants. We believe that AOE is deeply undervalued.

Our view on value is based on the following considerations:

Share price discount to valuation: The current share price of $A2.62 is a
steep discount to our sum-of-the-parts risk-adjusted DCF valuation of
$A6.35 /share and 12-month forward DCF of $6.95 /share.

Trading multiple discount: AOE is cheap on EV/3P trading and transaction
multiples. AOE’s EV/3P trading multiple of $A0.24 /GJ is below the industry
average of $A0.65 /GJ, the “small and mid” company average of $A0.34 /GJ
and the large company (STO, ORG and AGK) average of $A0.85 /GJ.

Transaction multiple discount: AOE’s EV/3P of $A0.24 /GJ is significantly
below the average transaction multiple of $A0.68 /GJ (which excludes the
high multiple STO/Petronas and ORG/COP transactions), below the
comparable BG/QGC transaction of $A0.77 /share and below the BG/PES
bid of $A0.40 /GJ, even allowing for the absence of control premium.

Unrisked potential: Our base valuation of $A6.35 /share includes
discounts to the raw DCF value of each project to reflect uncertainty
regarding commercialization outcomes and project implementation risks.
AOE’s unrisked potential, should projects proceed as planned (but keeping
exploration at its risked level), is $A13.25 /share. Our Monte Carlo
simulation analysis suggests a 90% probability of the net asset value
exceeding $4.80 /share and a 10 % probability of exceeding $A7.85 /share.

Favourable industry dynamics: Gas demand is increasing due to carbon
pollution concerns and unmet Asian LNG demand. Australian gas prices are
currently low by world standards and we believe a link to global energy
prices will be established by the creation of an export LNG industry.

mark100
25-03-2009, 01:15 AM
Hi Strat,
AOE are sitting pretty with cash but they would have hated seeing their baby Pure go to BG.

AOE could now use the money to develop further CSG drills on their own acreage, aquire BPT or look at BOW...or a combination. They know BOW pretty well and have a shareholding and Board representation.

I reckon AOE has 4 purchasing options should they go down that path:

1. BPT's Tipton West stake
2. BOW
3. MPO although MPO would be more attrative if they can first buy out Anglo's share in Mungi
4. WCL, just to annoy BG although some shareholders have blocking stakes

macduffy
25-03-2009, 07:50 AM
Hi mark.

Whose report was that?

I'm holding firm to my AOE.

;)

mark100
25-03-2009, 08:46 AM
Wilson HTM. The are pretty much the house broker so maybe you could say a little biased but WHTM also saw the potential of CSG long before most other brokers

pedro.nz
25-03-2009, 06:22 PM
And a 7.3% increase today to close at 2.80 - high of 2.86
Good day for all who hold ( Me :D)

shasta
25-03-2009, 07:14 PM
I reckon AOE has 4 purchasing options should they go down that path:

1. BPT's Tipton West stake
2. BOW
3. MPO although MPO would be more attrative if they can first buy out Anglo's share in Mungi
4. WCL, just to annoy BG although some shareholders have blocking stakes

I'll go with #1 - they will have pre-emptive rights & know the project.

I can see the overseas projects being ramped up too

impacman
25-03-2009, 09:08 PM
I would agree with option 1. Would seem to be the least risky in that it is just procuring CSG assets as opposed to CSG + oil/other .... I may be missing something but not sure why AOE would want to have a go at BPT in whole (as opposed to just TW assets). To an extent this logic should apply to BOW view as well... is it easier (or better) to get the lot or just target the CSG assets?

mark100
26-03-2009, 02:02 AM
lulubelle,

The figure of $400m Net Cash for AOE is not out of date. AOE may have $700m cash in the bank but after you deduct the tax they have to pay on the Shell transaction, tax on the PES share sale and debt associated with the power station assets you get a Net Cash figure of approx $400m

macduffy
26-03-2009, 07:45 AM
I would agree with option 1. Would seem to be the least risky in that it is just procuring CSG assets as opposed to CSG + oil/other .... I may be missing something but not sure why AOE would want to have a go at BPT in whole (as opposed to just TW assets). To an extent this logic should apply to BOW view as well... is it easier (or better) to get the lot or just target the CSG assets?

I agree that AOE is unlikely to "have a go at BPT in whole."
For a start BPT has over 1b shares on issue so the price would be well north of $1b. Not a great idea when AOE is really only interested in the 40% of Tipton West that it doesn't own.
That still seems to be the most likely target, IMO.

;)

mark100
02-04-2009, 12:43 AM
UBS initiated coverage of AOE today. $3.71 price target but notes sigificant upside potential. Also notes reserve multiple discount to other transactions etc

pedro.nz
16-04-2009, 05:41 PM
Good announcments over the last couple of days.
Arrow trucking along nicely...

mark100
22-04-2009, 11:37 AM
Origin has just paid $660m for 1,150 PJ of 3P ($0.57/GJ) in the Surat Basin, not too far from AOE's Tipton West and Kogan North Fields.

mark100
25-04-2009, 01:29 AM
The fact that Charlie Aitken is bullish on AOE could be a sell signal. Anyway here is his recent note on AOE, and I agree with what he's saying

Arrow Energy: Last piece in the jigsaw the cheapest

There's been another development in the coal seam methane sector, which strengthened my belief that Arrow Energy is undervalued and an obvious corporate target.

This week Origin Energy paid private owner Paul Fudge $660 million for his coal seam methane block. Lunch is on you, Paul! The implied multiple paid is 57¢ per gigajoule for 3P reserves. Remember: this is single asset with no current production.

Clearly, Origin is replacing reserves it sold to Conoco at lower implied prices. This trend will continue in the sector with Santos likely to replace some of the reserves it sold to Petronas at the implied value of $3.93 for 2P reserves and $1.92 for 3P reserves.

The easiest way for Santos to replace reserves would be to buy Arrow Energy. On my estimates, Arrow is trading on an EV/3P gas of 41 per gigajoule and $1.20 per gigajoule of 3P reserves. It’s also worth remembering Arrow is a producer and is profitable, which further discounts the value of its reserves inside its current market cap.

If we use the 57¢ a gigajoule valuation for Arrow’s 4791PJ of net 3P reserves, and ignore all the other assets, the Arrow valuation would be $3.75 a share. The valuation is actually $4.59, as the power assets, LNG options, pipeline rights, international portfolio and net cash of about $400 million obviously add value.

The Origin /Paul Fudge transaction at 57¢ per gigajoule for 3P makes Arrow’s recent purchase of Beach Petroleum’s 3P Tipton West assets at an implied price of 30¢ per gigajoule appear a very good value deal. It’s worth noting, as shown in the chart below, that Arrow sold 3P reserves at 52¢ to Shell and replaced them at 30¢ from Beach Petroleum. That’s a value adding arbitrage.

I continue to recommend Arrow Energy as a buy with a $4.59 price target. With corporate action in the sector remaining intense (land grab for reserves), I would be surprised if Arrow remains in its current form. There does seem to be an institutional seller of around, but we would be taking on that liquidity.

mark100
29-04-2009, 11:32 AM
Some pretty big numbers being thrown around by AOE for its international business today. Maybe looking to boost the price because they can feel consolidation coming?

A close above $3.30 would be a nice

macduffy
29-04-2009, 12:12 PM
Some pretty big numbers being thrown around by AOE for its international business today. Maybe looking to boost the price because they can feel consolidation coming?

A close above $3.30 would be a nice

I've been thinking about what Shell's involvement with AOE means for the latter and whether it precludes, or at least discourages, corporate action from any other party.

Shell's interest isn't of course a straight shareholding in AOE. It consists of a 30% interest in AOE's Australian tenements plus a 10% interest in AOE's foreign operations. The latter is through a shareholding in "AOE International" but in addition Shell has a farm-in option for 50% of new projects.
All of the above complicates any t/o by parties other than Shell but probably doesn't discourage anyone who would be prepared to work with Shell.

Any thoughts?

mark100
29-04-2009, 05:35 PM
I've been thinking about what Shell's involvement with AOE means for the latter and whether it precludes, or at least discourages, corporate action from any other party.

Shell's interest isn't of course a straight shareholding in AOE. It consists of a 30% interest in AOE's Australian tenements plus a 10% interest in AOE's foreign operations. The latter is through a shareholding in "AOE International" but in addition Shell has a farm-in option for 50% of new projects.
All of the above complicates any t/o by parties other than Shell but probably doesn't discourage anyone who would be prepared to work with Shell.

Any thoughts?

Obviously Shell is the main suspect in any potential takeover of AOE but I don't think the deals done to date with Shell would ultimately stop someone else having a bid for AOE. Importantly the Shell investment is at the project level as you say, not the corporate level. There are plenty of examples in the oil and gas industry where a project has multiple shareholders. Look at PNG LNG.

Also a final comment by Davies today said they would not discount aditional strategic investors into Arrow International. That made me think that they could already have a further sell down in the pipeline. Right now I don't think the market is ascribing much value to the international business so any further sell down could have the affect of highlighting the value of that business.

A close obove $3.30 today also keeps the uptrend ticking gradually higher.

bermuda
04-05-2009, 10:00 AM
:)

Hi folks,

AOE ... technically, indicators have turned down, just ahead of a negative
period, expected between 2602-18032009 .....

..... see post above for further details.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

Yogi,
Your astro stuff failed to take into account that this company is run by Nick Davies. It has been in an uptrend for 6 months.

bermuda
04-05-2009, 04:11 PM
Obviously Shell is the main suspect in any potential takeover of AOE but I don't think the deals done to date with Shell would ultimately stop someone else having a bid for AOE. Importantly the Shell investment is at the project level as you say, not the corporate level. There are plenty of examples in the oil and gas industry where a project has multiple shareholders. Look at PNG LNG.

Also a final comment by Davies today said they would not discount aditional strategic investors into Arrow International. That made me think that they could already have a further sell down in the pipeline. Right now I don't think the market is ascribing much value to the international business so any further sell down could have the affect of highlighting the value of that business.

A close obove $3.30 today also keeps the uptrend ticking gradually higher.

Hi Mark,
Arrow moving higher all the time. So is Santos. So is Origin. Shell are a first class suitor for AOE. Something is going to give.

mark100
04-05-2009, 05:02 PM
Do you know something more than I do regarding Shell's intentions bermuda? AOE certainly has been rising consistently the past few weeks.

AOE, STO, ORG and WPL probably all benefiting from the 12 month delay of the ETS introduction today

bermuda
04-05-2009, 06:02 PM
Do you know something more than I do regarding Shell's intentions bermuda? AOE certainly has been rising consistently the past few weeks.

AOE, STO, ORG and WPL probably all benefiting from the 12 month delay of the ETS introduction today

No I dont unfortunately. I have noticed that just about every CSG stock is on its way to reaching the previous 'bubble' highs of last year.. Have been keeping on eye out on Gladstone developments. It seems that BG might be going for 4 trains. In any case there is more consolidation and M&A coming up.

AOE is one of my favourite CSG majors even though I dont hold. A great MD in Davies.

mark100
06-05-2009, 11:42 PM
Shell calls for consolidation of Gladstone's resources

Matt Chambers | May 06, 2009
Article from: The Australian

ROYAL Dutch Shell, which has the least-established of Gladstone's four planned multi-billion-dollar gas export plants, has signalled it is keen to take part in consolidation of the region's gas resources.

Speaking after a lunch in Melbourne yesterday, Shell Australia chairman Russell Caplan acknowledged the company would have to step up its presence in the region if it was to stay in the race to turn coal seam gas into liquefied natural gas.

"The way I see it, it's unlikely that developments will occur in a fragmented fashion," Mr Caplan said.

"You will ultimately need to have a world-scale resource moving to a world-scale plant -- If you don't start that way then something will ultimately have to happen to get us there."

Shell has a site to build a multi-train LNG plant on Curtis Island off the coast of Gladstone but is well behind rivals BG Group, Origin and Santos when it comes to reserves.

Its only reserves are through a 30 per cent stake in Arrow Energy's reserves, which are not seen as big enough to support a major plant.

"We're in discussions with the authorities, with Arrow and with others on ways of monetising (the gas)," Mr Caplan said. Santos and Origin have both said they are open to consolidation of resources, while BG is believed to be open to the concept.

Mr Caplan would not discuss reports that Shell and Woodside were in talks about selling the latter's stake in the Sunrise LNG project in the Timor Sea.

However, a spokesman for Woodside denied yesterday that the company was in talks with anyone over its "33.44 stake in the Sunrise LNG development". Turning to Shell's Australian refining business, Mr Caplan said he hoped the Clyde refinery in Sydney, which was shut down late last year for a major overhaul, would restart by July.

Shell has announced it would exit its refining business in New Zealand, prompting Caltex to last month speculate Australian refineries could come up for sale.

Mr Caplan said Shell would continue to look at its position in Australian refining and that any new investment required in plant would trigger a review of its stance, as it had in the past.

He said major investments would be necessary in the next five years.

Mr Caplan said progress was being made on the Prelude floating LNG project planned for the Browse Basin offshore Western Australia, but would not give a timetable for the next step.

mark100
13-05-2009, 01:02 PM
So much for the theory from some analysts that Asian buyers might not want to buy LNG produced from coal seam gas...


BG agrees deal with China's CNOOC on Australia LNG
Tue May 12, 2009 8:56pm EDT

PERTH, May 13 (Reuters) - China's CNOOC has signed a deal with energy major BG Group Ltd (BG.L) to buy gas from the British gas producer's proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Australia, BG said on Wednesday.

CNOOC will buy 3.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG for a period of 20 years from the start-up of BG's Queensland Curtis Island LNG project, to be built in the northeastern state of Queensland, BG said in a statement.

Under the deal, CNOOC will also own a 10 percent stake in one of the two LNG production trains at the planned LNG development, BG said. (Reporting by Fayen Wong)

Financially dependant
13-05-2009, 01:36 PM
So much for the theory from some analysts that Asian buyers might not want to buy LNG produced from coal seam gas...


BG agrees deal with China's CNOOC on Australia LNG
Tue May 12, 2009 8:56pm EDT

PERTH, May 13 (Reuters) - China's CNOOC has signed a deal with energy major BG Group Ltd (BG.L) to buy gas from the British gas producer's proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Australia, BG said on Wednesday.

CNOOC will buy 3.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG for a period of 20 years from the start-up of BG's Queensland Curtis Island LNG project, to be built in the northeastern state of Queensland, BG said in a statement.

Under the deal, CNOOC will also own a 10 percent stake in one of the two LNG production trains at the planned LNG development, BG said. (Reporting by Fayen Wong)

This story just keeps getting better......What is the chance of CNOOC to start looking for acreage??

The Chinese seem very keen to draw down there US dollars by buying up as many physical assets as they can.......smart long term view ;)

mark100
22-05-2009, 05:15 PM
AOE finished slightly up today despite been down a fair bit early and a big down day on the market and for other energy stocks generally. AOE has been quite solid on all down days lately. I remember my Sunshine Gas were behaving in a similar way just prior to QGC lobbing a bid.

bermuda
23-05-2009, 11:31 AM
AOE finished slightly up today despite been down a fair bit early and a big down day on the market and for other energy stocks generally. AOE has been quite solid on all down days lately. I remember my Sunshine Gas were behaving in a similar way just prior to QGC lobbing a bid.

Mark,
The trading in AOE lately has all the hall marks of something big in the wind. Have halve a mind to get some. Shell wont want BG getting all the CSG spoils. jmho

kiwiwim
25-05-2009, 10:16 AM
To buy or too leave alone, and buy more of BOW!
What is the short term upside in AOE at the present price of $3.90?
Shell paid A$600 aprox. for a 30% interest in AOE Australian tenements and 10% in Arrow International. Plus a possible future A$400 for performance with LNG.
Value of Arrow based on current payment 600/.3=$2billion, future 1000/.3=$3.3billion.
Current shares on issue aprox 737million (including Beach and options):737 @ $3.90= $2.87billion.
Is Shell's increase in Tripton from 18% to 30% included in above, or must Shell still pay for that 12%?
I do not know what the share price will be on a PJ Reserve basis? Has anyone an idea?
Market could be slow today with holiday in US.

Novitiate
30-05-2009, 04:31 PM
I'm a little perplexed by the volume and buy/sell (particularly the sell) quantities on AOE on Friday. Anyone of you far wiser contributors able to enlighten this newbie? (Sorry to have my hand out with my first post!)

macduffy
30-05-2009, 05:32 PM
I'm a little perplexed by the volume and buy/sell (particularly the sell) quantities on AOE on Friday. Anyone of you far wiser contributors able to enlighten this newbie? (Sorry to have my hand out with my first post!)

Yes, there were huge volumes of AOE traded on Friday - more than 43m shares, almost 6% of issued capital.
This indicates that someone is building a position but the interesting thing is that they didn't have to chase the price up, AOE actually closed down on the day so the buying was meeting a seller or sellers who was looking to lighten up.
Hard to guess what's happening except that there is clearly "something" in the wind.
I continue to hold.

;)

Phaedrus
30-05-2009, 07:00 PM
Yes, there were huge volumes of AOE traded on Friday - this indicates that someone is building a position..... Since the big volume was accompanied by a sharp drop in price, the day was carried by the bears, by the seller. Someone was liquidating a big position. Maybe others were trying to build positions, but it is painfully obvious that the seller (who could be an insider and as such may well know more than the buyer) was the instigator, the driver, the more powerful, more motivated party.



..... but the interesting thing is that they didn't have to chase the price up .........as a big buyer would have had to do!!! It was the actions of a very keen big seller that forced the price Down.



AOE actually closed down on the day so the buying was meeting a seller or sellers who was looking to lighten up.Ah, but MacDuffy, the buying wasn't meeting the seller or sellers! That's the important point here. That's why the price went down. The fact that AOE closed sharply down for the day means that the Seller overwhelmed all the buyers. When buyers and sellers are equally matched, when buying really does meet selling, the price doesn't move.


Big as it was, don't focus overly on that big sale, MacDuffy. Here's a chart that you probably won't like very much - check it out. AOE had weakened and triggered Sell signals, and downside volumes were already increasing some days before the big dude bailed.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AOE530.gif

macduffy
30-05-2009, 07:53 PM
Thanks for the tutorial, Phaedrus. Much appreciated, as always.
:)
That OBV was certainly a revelation. I might have to reassess my strong hold on AOE!

mark100
31-05-2009, 09:43 AM
AOE is included in the MSCI Energy Index as of Monday which is apparently behind the reason for Fridays trading. As are PDN and ERA. Have a look at the OBV and volume for ERA and PDN on Friday and they are very similar to AOE. The majority of AOE's volume on Friday occured in the closing auction and there were many different orders in the market, a bit like the behaviour on an option expiry day. Not just one or a few sellers/buyers.

I have noticed occasions when the OBV takes a huge hit on 1 given day due to some crossed trades etc only to see it bounce back rather quicky or almost immediately. Looking at AOE back in Jul 06 the OBV fell from about 40m to -66m due to one days trade when 100m shares changed hands. In the subsequent 2 weeks the price fell just under 10% but had recovered a week after that and then 2 months later was up 75%.

I agree that AOE has been looking rather toppy and is due for a pullback but I think there were more than stock specific reasons behind Fridays trading.

pedro.nz
31-05-2009, 12:40 PM
Why do you think there were such large number of sellers when these stocks were added to an index such as MSCI?
One assumes such volume is due to institutions modifying their positions but the reason escapes me, probably because I don't know much about the MSCI index

mark100
31-05-2009, 08:26 PM
Why do you think there were such large number of sellers when these stocks were added to an index such as MSCI?
One assumes such volume is due to institutions modifying their positions but the reason escapes me, probably because I don't know much about the MSCI index

No idea either Pedro. Apparently the index inclusion isn't until Monday but as you say it appears to be institutions reweighting. There were also a lot of off-market trades after the market closed. We do know that Concorde have been sellers for several months. Selling from the low $2's right up to $4. They have reduced their holding from 10% to near 5% over the past few months and maybe they dumped the rest in the closing auction on Friday?

macduffy
01-06-2009, 01:43 PM
AOE don't seem to have made any announcement about their inclusion in the MSCI energy index.
I would have thought that it would warrant one in terms of keeping the market informed?

macduffy
01-06-2009, 04:59 PM
It seems that AOE has been deleted from the MSCI Global Small Caps Indices and added to the MSCI Global Standard Indices.
Looks like some Small Cap Index fund or funds needed to sell?

:cool:

shasta
01-06-2009, 05:05 PM
It seems that AOE has been deleted from the MSCI Global Small Caps Indices and added to the MSCI Global Standard Indices.
Looks like some Small Cap Index fund or funds needed to sell?

:cool:

Wouldn't that also mean funds that track the MSCI Global index have to buy as well?

Should even out, or actually result in more volume i would have thought?

macduffy
01-06-2009, 07:26 PM
Wouldn't that also mean funds that track the MSCI Global index have to buy as well?

Should even out, or actually result in more volume i would have thought?

One would think so. But the SP weakness on Friday on heavy volume ( 43m shares) indicates that Sellers were in control. More Global Small Caps index funds than Global Standard index funds I guess, or perhaps the AOE weighting was heavier in the former?

shasta
01-06-2009, 07:56 PM
One would think so. But the SP weakness on Friday on heavy volume ( 43m shares) indicates that Sellers were in control. More Global Small Caps index funds than Global Standard index funds I guess, or perhaps the AOE weighting was heavier in the former?

You've hit the nail on the head, yeah its in the weighting...

AOE was a big fish in the small caps, & is in a much bigger pond now :D

pedro.nz
16-06-2009, 12:20 PM
Out today - Really like the long term story for this stock but dropping too fast for this kid - will buy again when the old chart looks better again...

macduffy
04-07-2009, 04:10 PM
Interesting Boardroom Radio presentation by the Australia CEO of AOE, accessed from ASX announcements or AOE website.

A good backgrounder on CSM and AOE's plans for their CSM to LNG plant which is first in line of the planned Queensland plants.

NB. It takes about 30 minutes but much more interesting than TV News!

mark100
04-07-2009, 11:09 PM
Interesting Boardroom Radio presentation by the Australia CEO of AOE, accessed from ASX announcements or AOE website.

A good backgrounder on CSM and AOE's plans for their CSM to LNG plant which is first in line of the planned Queensland plants.

NB. It takes about 30 minutes but much more interesting than TV News!

Interesting comment from Scott when talking about Shell, 'we're not married just yet'

pedro.nz
23-07-2009, 06:02 PM
Man this one gets bounced around - approx $3.10 a couple of weeks ago - 7.3% rise today takes it to $3.97 - been too busy with other things (like working for a living) to check whats up so need to ask if anyone knows why

pedro.nz
23-07-2009, 06:03 PM
or is the rumour machine alive and well - re shell takeover

macduffy
23-07-2009, 06:47 PM
Man this one gets bounced around - approx $3.10 a couple of weeks ago - 7.3% rise today takes it to $3.97 - been too busy with other things (like working for a living) to check whats up so need to ask if anyone knows why

Beach announced yesterday that they had sold 8m AOE shares, part of the consideration for their interest in Tipton West. Perhaps the market saw this as removing an "overhang" on AOE SP?

;)

shasta
23-07-2009, 07:50 PM
Beach announced yesterday that they had sold 8m AOE shares, part of the consideration for their interest in Tipton West. Perhaps the market saw this as removing an "overhang" on AOE SP?

;)

Given AOE's average daily turnover is around 4m shares, we are talking about 2 days volume, so not much overhang...

BPT still holds ~12.5m shares

macduffy
23-07-2009, 08:05 PM
Given AOE's average daily turnover is around 4m shares, we are talking about 2 days volume, so not much overhang...

BPT still holds ~12.5m shares

Quite so, shasta.

Hence, the "perhaps".

Or perhaps it was a case of "If Beach are selling, it must be a BUY ".

:D

shasta
23-07-2009, 08:17 PM
Quite so, shasta.

Hence, the "perhaps".

Or perhaps it was a case of "If Beach are selling, it must be a BUY ".

:D

Probably, gee you're as cynical as i am :eek:

pedro.nz
31-07-2009, 11:52 AM
Announcement that Gross 2P reserves have increased by 52% has pleased the market this morning. :D

bermuda
31-07-2009, 05:08 PM
Announcement that Gross 2P reserves have increased by 52% has pleased the market this morning. :D

Nick Davies has stated that AOE will quadruple its market cap within 4 years. I believe him. This is a standout performer and the safest CSG bet on offer.

I should get some but I am going for quicker and better leverage. Arrow has 72 TCF (est ) GIP. Far out.

airedale
31-07-2009, 09:21 PM
Hi Bermuda, GIP...Gippsland...tantalum? tin? feldspar? All far removed from your usual CSG stocks:confused:

shasta
31-07-2009, 09:31 PM
Hi Bermuda, GIP...Gippsland...tantalum? tin? feldspar? All far removed from your usual CSG stocks:confused:


GIP = Gas In Place ;)

airedale
01-08-2009, 03:44 PM
Thanks, Shasta...:o

bermuda
01-08-2009, 06:49 PM
Thanks, Shasta...:o
Hi Airedale,
I should explain myself more fully. 72 TCF Gas in Place ( GIP ) is a lot of energy.

More than Texas. Billions of BOE ( Barrels Oil Equivalent )

I have always told Kiwiwim that Arrow is an outstanding company.

This can go to $16 within 4 years. I am not joking. And I don't even own any.

( providing there is not too much stock dilution ...and I dont think there will be much )

shasta
01-08-2009, 08:51 PM
Hi Airedale,
I should explain myself more fully. 72 TCF Gas in Place ( GIP ) is a lot of energy.

More than Texas. Billions of BOE ( Barrels Oil Equivalent )

I have always told Kiwiwim that Arrow is an outstanding company.

This can go to $16 within 4 years. I am not joking. And I don't even own any.

( providing there is not too much stock dilution ...and I dont think there will be much )

Bermuda

I always get tangled up working out BCF/TCF back to PJ :confused:

But if 1BCF = ~1PJ (& approx 5PJ = 1mmbo)

& 1000 BCF = 1TCF (= ~200mmbo) then we are talking about reserves of ~14,400 mmboe (or 14.4 billion bbls!) for AOE (@72 TCF)

AOE @ $16 would have a market capitalisation of ~$A12b

Less than $1 per barrel reserves!

Of course they have to drill out half of Queensland to prove it up, but if they had 72 TCF as P3 reserves, the SP would be way north of $16 :eek:

kiwiwim
02-08-2009, 02:47 PM
Hi Airedale,
I should explain myself more fully. 72 TCF Gas in Place ( GIP ) is a lot of energy.

More than Texas. Billions of BOE ( Barrels Oil Equivalent )

I have always told Kiwiwim that Arrow is an outstanding company.

This can go to $16 within 4 years. I am not joking. And I don't even own any.

( providing there is not too much stock dilution ...and I dont think there will be much )

Hi Bermuda
Did listen to your advise and entered AOE again last week at $3.85. Part of Beach' sell off I think.
But still hold BOW, BUL, VPE, MOS and a small parcel of ITC.
For long term also AWE WPL and ORG. Feel I have probably too much exposure to CSG. But do not know what to sell.
Looks like Arrow's LNG one train on Fisher's Landing will be first off the line. But what about BG and Origin. May be OILER may have some comments on latter.
WIM

bermuda
02-08-2009, 04:32 PM
Bermuda

I always get tangled up working out BCF/TCF back to PJ :confused:

But if 1BCF = ~1PJ (& approx 5PJ = 1mmbo)

& 1000 BCF = 1TCF (= ~200mmbo) then we are talking about reserves of ~14,400 mmboe (or 14.4 billion bbls!) for AOE (@72 TCF)

AOE @ $16 would have a market capitalisation of ~$A12b

Less than $1 per barrel reserves!

Of course they have to drill out half of Queensland to prove it up, but if they had 72 TCF as P3 reserves, the SP would be way north of $16 :eek:

Shasta,
Your figures are spot on. That is why I said ( and so did Nick Davies...their Chief ) that AOE would be $16 within FOUR years.

Heaven knows how high it could go after because their GROSS reserve figure at $A90 per barrel would equal $A1782 per share. ( once the 72 TCF had been proved up ) .

That's $A1782.00 per share, not $A17.82.

Far out.

That is why this CSG is bigger than Texas.

Toulouse - Luzern
13-08-2009, 01:09 PM
Hi,

AOE is back on the up ...

COLIN
13-08-2009, 02:27 PM
Shasta,
Your figures are spot on. That is why I said ( and so did Nick Davies...their Chief ) that AOE would be $16 within FOUR years.

Heaven knows how high it could go after because their GROSS reserve figure at $A90 per barrel would equal $A1782 per share. ( once the 72 TCF had been proved up ) .

That's $A1782.00 per share, not $A17.82.

Far out.

That is why this CSG is bigger than Texas.

Bermuda, old chum: I'm losing patience with VPE(O), that one-time favourite of yours (still?). Should I swap out of them and into AOE? Help!!!!

Toulouse - Luzern
13-08-2009, 02:42 PM
Hi,
Today's rise may be a result of eg the Wall St Journal as below.

Price, intra-day volumes and parabolic SAR have now fallen.

The 453 high is now back to 442.

Maybe everyone has gone to lunch.

Company has responded to an ASX enquiry - refer Direct Broking website AOE - NEWS

Rgds

Copied from the web:

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Arrow Energy Ltd. (AOE.AU) said Thursday it has talked to parties about a possible takeover of the company, stoking speculation it could be the next takeover target in Australia's burgeoning coal seam gas sector.

Amid mounting talk of a deal, and in response to a share price query from the Australian Securities Exchange, Arrow said it hasn't received a takeover offer and isn't aware if one will emerge.

Still, at 0230 GMT Arrow shares were up 8.2% at A$4.48 in anticipation of a deal, adding to a 6.7% gain Wednesday, giving it a market value of A$3.21 billion.

bermuda
13-08-2009, 04:15 PM
Bermuda, old chum: I'm losing patience with VPE(O), that one-time favourite of yours (still?). Should I swap out of them and into AOE? Help!!!!

Colin,
I still have mineand will be holding until VPE's CSG assets get sold out to BG for about $300m or about $1 per share. Plus their oil fairway is looking better all the time.

There are some huge plays coming up for Arrow. What a company and what a chief Nick Davies is.

macduffy
14-08-2009, 06:56 AM
Here's The Australian's take on the Arrow takeover speculation.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25923786-5005200,00.html

macduffy
17-08-2009, 08:23 AM
More speculation on Arrow/Shell. Should keep the SP stoked!

;)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25937594-36418,00.html

impacman
17-08-2009, 11:25 AM
More speculation on Arrow/Shell. Should keep the SP stoked!

;)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25937594-36418,00.html

Would appear to be doing just that at this point!:)

Toulouse - Luzern
17-08-2009, 11:33 AM
Downloaded from the web (Bloomberg):
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=apjGr1mZIlZQ

Shell Offered $2.5 Billion for Arrow Energy, Telegraph Reports

By Claudia Carpenter

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc made an A$3 billion ($2.5 billion) bid for Arrow Energy Ltd., and the talks ended “in stalemate,” the Sunday Telegraph reported, without saying where it got the information.

Shell may return with a “revised approach,” according to the newspaper.

seadog
17-08-2009, 01:10 PM
I see in the Fisher funds annual report for their Kiwisaver Growth scheme AOE is their largest holding with 5.31% of the funds invested in this coy.

pedro.nz
24-10-2009, 02:04 PM
Arrow has bought another 2,000,000 shares in LNG - what puzzles me is that their voting power has decreased from 10.32% to 8.11% - How come or is this just a reporting error.

2107

shasta
24-10-2009, 02:33 PM
Arrow has bought another 2,000,000 shares in LNG - what puzzles me is that their voting power has decreased from 10.32% to 8.11% - How come or is this just a reporting error.

2107

Good spotting.

LNG recently raised $29.4m (23.5m shares @ $1.25), & no mention of AOE participating?

Those extra 2m shares were acquired for $1,120,000 or $0.56 each.

Doesn't make sense to me either :confused:

COLIN
24-10-2009, 09:27 PM
Good spotting.

LNG recently raised $29.4m (23.5m shares @ $1.25), & no mention of AOE participating?

Those extra 2m shares were acquired for $1,120,000 or $0.56 each.

Doesn't make sense to me either :confused:

i looked into that at the time, too. They are different dates. The 2,000,000 shares were actually acquired back in June - shouldn't the Notice have been given then? The recent Notice specifically states that they did not participate in the recent new issue, thus diluting their holding.

shasta
24-10-2009, 09:40 PM
i looked into that at the time, too. They are different dates. The 2,000,000 shares were actually acquired back in June - shouldn't the Notice have been given then? The recent Notice specifically states that they did not participate in the recent new issue, thus diluting their holding.

I thought anyone with 5% + had to file a SSH form each time they bought/sold +/- 1%. :confused:

Someone must know the ins & outs of this???

Corporate
25-10-2009, 06:30 AM
I thought anyone with 5% + had to file a SSH form each time they bought/sold +/- 1%. :confused:

Someone must know the ins & outs of this???

Isn't it +/- 1% of the companies issued shares not Arrow's holding?

snowball
25-10-2009, 11:59 AM
Isn't it +/- 1% of the companies issued shares not Arrow's holding?

Yes it is. The cap raising was the trigger for the >1% reduction in AOE's LNG holding.

Thus the 2m share purchase in June did not require notification as <1% movement in LNG overall share capital.

pedro.nz
25-10-2009, 12:33 PM
Thanks all - I had not noticed that the transaction date was back in June.

shasta
05-11-2009, 05:44 PM
Thanks all - I had not noticed that the transaction date was back in June.

The mighty Arrow showing some weakness of late :confused:

SP @ $3.85, & falling...:rolleyes:

Not wanting to catch a falling knife though!

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?BI=2&COMT=index&OVS=XJO&TF=D6&TIMA1=20&TIMA2=20&s=AOE

mark100
05-11-2009, 06:22 PM
The mighty Arrow showing some weakness of late :confused:

SP @ $3.85, & falling...:rolleyes:

Not wanting to catch a falling knife though!

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?BI=2&COMT=index&OVS=XJO&TF=D6&TIMA1=20&TIMA2=20&s=AOE

Arrow always seems to correct much harder than the overall market. Who knows where it will end up this time. Technically if it breaches around 3.80 it could head to the low $3s but I reckon the market would have to be pretty sick to get back there again. I thought their recent quarterly was one of their better ones. Tried to pick a few up at 3.80 today but just missed out.

mark100
05-11-2009, 06:32 PM
Another thing to remember with AOE is the upcoming IPO of Apollo. I assume this is subject to market conditions but with AOE backing them it will probably be highly sought after. Apollo will be focused on NSW CSG opportunities. It hasn't been stated but I'm hoping that a shareholding in AOE will give my a priority allocation in Apollo

bermuda
05-11-2009, 08:15 PM
Another thing to remember with AOE is the upcoming IPO of Apollo. I assume this is subject to market conditions but with AOE backing them it will probably be highly sought after. Apollo will be focused on NSW CSG opportunities. It hasn't been stated but I'm hoping that a shareholding in AOE will give my a priority allocation in Apollo

Mark, I think you have nailed it.
Apollo will be highly sought after. If I was an Arrow shareholder I would think of selling my Headshares to get some Apollo. It wont be like when PES listed. About 6 months later PES was about half the list price. Cant see that happening to Apollo.

If Apollo is anything like PURE, and my guess is it will be....then this Apollo could go to the moon.

mark100
18-11-2009, 02:46 PM
Breakout! Currently up over 7% for today. Any idea whats triggered this run? Hopefully long awaited corporate activity. The AGM is also on Friday which I will be attending. Maybe they plan to release some good news then

soulman
18-11-2009, 03:49 PM
Mark, I was lucky to buy some in the early 4's last week. My first foray with AOE. Not sure what's the fuss all about today but loving it. Maybe the new CSG IPO coming up from AOE.

winner69
07-01-2010, 12:06 PM
That announcement the other day seems to have been met favourably with the shareprice now over 450

Somebody did mention something on another thread but what does it really mean long term for AOE .... I take it that

Don't know much about this sector but AOE does look interesting

upside_umop
07-01-2010, 01:51 PM
I bought a parcel on some of the other CSG players once arrow broke its recent trendline of the last few months....I did this because I believe Arrow is the 'proxy' CSG company and the others will follow.

I'll post a chart later to demonstrate this, unless phaedrus beats me to it.

mark100
07-01-2010, 04:34 PM
That announcement the other day seems to have been met favourably with the shareprice now over 450

Somebody did mention something on another thread but what does it really mean long term for AOE .... I take it that

Don't know much about this sector but AOE does look interesting

It's a little hard to determine the exact implications of the latest annoucement but I think it removes some of the risk associated with the project given LNG Ltd are probably the weakest link in terms of being able to obtain funding etc.

Some may also say AOE are simplifying the structure to attract takeover offers

winner69
21-01-2010, 05:57 PM
Market sold down AOE heaps the last couple of days

Jeez guys ,,, this is the only loser I have had this year .... teach me to dabble in things i don't know much about .... and teach me not to play around with the housekeeping money when I am bored

As whatsup would say whatsup

mark100
21-01-2010, 06:32 PM
Market sold down AOE heaps the last couple of days

Jeez guys ,,, this is the only loser I have had this year .... teach me to dabble in things i don't know much about .... and teach me not to play around with the housekeeping money when I am bored

As whatsup would say whatsup

Market was looking for a reserve upgrade with the quarterly I think but didn't get it. More likely sometime in Feb is my guess. Although I reckon the days of reserves upgrades boosting stocks like AOE must be coming to an end soon. What they need is evidence that all the gas will be turned into cashflow through LNG and electricity sales

winner69
21-01-2010, 06:44 PM
Market was looking for a reserve upgrade with the quarterly I think but didn't get it. More likely sometime in Feb is my guess. Although I reckon the days of reserves upgrades boosting stocks like AOE must be coming to an end soon. What they need is evidence that all the gas will be turned into cashflow through LNG and electricity sales

Thanks mark ..... but getting close to my stop loss here and I hate losing .... shoudln't have been greedy for more when it reached 458 the other day .... jeez down 10% from that high and i still hold .... pahedrus will be giving me a lecture next

Toulouse - Luzern
21-01-2010, 08:18 PM
Hi W69

The energy indice has the blues today...
The ASX200 Energy indice is down -2%

Not just AOE at -3.5%

But also:
AWE - 6.5%
CVN -4.3%
OSH - 3.6%
KAR - 3.3%

winner69
22-01-2010, 05:51 AM
Hi W69

The energy indice has the blues today...
The ASX200 Energy indice is down -2%

Not just AOE at -3.5%

But also:
AWE - 6.5%
CVN -4.3%
OSH - 3.6%
KAR - 3.3%

Suppose today will be another bad day day after the action on Wall St overnight where energy stocks continued their slide

COLIN
22-01-2010, 09:48 AM
Suppose today will be another bad day day after the action on Wall St overnight where energy stocks continued their slide

Yes, 'fraid so. A good day to stay away from our screens.
I feel that there has been a market over-reaction to Obama's threats to rain fire and brimstone down on the big banks. There is a long way to go before it is all set in concrete, and there will be compromises along the way. The announcements have affected overall market sentiment, for the time being, but, on considered analysis, the pundits will come to the conclusion that the real economy should not be too adversely affected. It is interesting to note, for instance, that the share prices of the regional banks were reported to have "soared" on the news.

So, yes, there will be an immediate depressing of share prices around the globe - and the apparent tightening of credit by the Chinese authorities doesn't help the cause - but I don't believe that this marks the start of a major re-trace.

evilroyrule
22-01-2010, 10:13 AM
well for what its worth im with colin. im going shopping today. easy 10-20% to be made imo

shasta
27-01-2010, 11:39 AM
well for what its worth im with colin. im going shopping today. easy 10-20% to be made imo

AOE - Arrow increases P2 reserves by 2,058PJ :eek:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AOE&E=ASX&N=217683

AOE has a hell of alot of uncontracted gas!

macduffy
28-01-2010, 03:40 PM
The Business Spectator reports speculation in the AFR that Sinopec may be behind DB's recent purchase of around 6% of AOE.

ratkin
06-02-2010, 08:55 PM
Had these on my long term buy watchlist plenty over the last few years.
Was kicking myself for missing out on the 2.50 that was available last march.

Needless to say , dont intend to make the same mistake twice and am waiting to pounce .
Is there a decent chance we could be revisiting that support level of around 2.50? Heres hoping

drillfix
11-02-2010, 11:50 AM
Looks like arrow gets the Gladstone LNG project.

Has this been on the cards a while or something?

_______________________

Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (ASX:LNG “LNG Ltd”) has executed a conditional Heads of Agreement with Arrow Energy Limited (ASX: AOE, “Arrow”) to sell the entire Fisherman’s Landing liquefied natural gas project (“Gladstone LNG Project”) through the sale of LNG Ltd’s 100% owned subsidiary Gladstone LNG Pty Ltd for a combination of cash, milestone payments, royalties and Arrow options.

This agreement supersedes the previously announced InfraCo/TrainCo release on 4 January 2010 that contemplated ongoing equity investment in the Gladstone LNG project by LNG Ltd.

The agreement is subject to Arrow completing its confirmatory due diligence and LNG Ltd gaining shareholder approval for the sale, with a shareholder meeting planned within the next 45 days.

bermuda
11-02-2010, 12:13 PM
Had these on my long term buy watchlist plenty over the last few years.
Was kicking myself for missing out on the 2.50 that was available last march.

Needless to say , dont intend to make the same mistake twice and am waiting to pounce .
Is there a decent chance we could be revisiting that support level of around 2.50? Heres hoping

Ratkin,
I dont hold AOE but they are one of my favourite copmanies. Nick Davies reckons he will quadruple the Market cap within 4 years....and I believe him. With the AOE Gladstone FID only a few moths away I doubt very much whether you will get them for less than $3.45.

drillfix
11-02-2010, 12:21 PM
Ratkin,
I dont hold AOE but they are one of my favourite copmanies.

That sounds a bit odd Bermuda, I would have thought you out of all people would be holding a stock like this.

Plus if its your favourite, then why not, hmmmm? ;) :p

bermuda
11-02-2010, 12:22 PM
That sounds a bit odd Bermuda, I would have thought you out of all people would be holding a stock like this.

Plus if its your favourite, then why not, hmmmm? ;) :p

Not enough leverage.

drillfix
11-02-2010, 12:48 PM
Not enough leverage.

Are you a need to buy a million shares in a stock type of guy bermuda?

Or do you mean not enough upside?

Sorry for all the questions here bermuda, just curious thats all :)

bermuda
11-02-2010, 12:56 PM
Are you a need to buy a million shares in a stock type of guy bermuda?

Or do you mean not enough upside?

Sorry for all the questions here bermuda, just curious thats all :)

Drilly,
Am off to the cricket now. Let's hope the Banga's can make a game of this one. They have some talent.

Upside is what I look for. Doesn't matter about the number of shares although I do like getting hold of them ( at low levels ) and then waiting until the story the story unfolds.

The CSG bubble is about to get reinflated. Let's hope Arrow dont delay their FID. A couple of months would be okay but 6 months would hurt.

macduffy
11-02-2010, 01:59 PM
I've held AOE since around the dollar mark. I know this will cause a few smiles but the reason I researched and then bought them was because Fisher Funds was in the process of building their stake. Likewise with RKN - another good one for me, and AVE - not a bright idea! But they're other stories.

To get back to AOE. This latest move raises the risk profile of the company a notch or two with more now riding on the success of what will be the first CSG to LNG plant, all going to plan. Will be interesting to see market reaction over the next few days. I would have preferred to see AOE take the more conservative route via the JV and may be tempted to lighten a bit as I have a fair bit - for me - riding on CSG through AOE and BOW.

I agree with bermuda that the likes of BOW appear to offer more leverage to the CSG story than AOE. I'll be more likely to add to my BOW stake in future.

ratkin
11-02-2010, 02:26 PM
Im just concerned that this whole gas sector is a bit of a bubble at the moment.

MrDevine
11-02-2010, 07:46 PM
Are you concerned because you're holding some Ratkin?

Look I think some valuations have gotten ahead of themselves. If we don't get many of these FID's away over the next few months, then the CSG market will look like the U sector is now pretty quickly. We are playing a poker game here, to see who will win this dollar auction the majors have gotten themselves into.

i think the likes of Woodside and perhaps the majors themselves have been spinning the glut story to in WPLs case strengthen their case to get a gas field going under the sea off the coast of Aus, vs the majors like CNO, BG and Petronas building gas terminals on land and wanting more reserves.

The spot gas prices of 2 years ago were way above long term averages. These guys want long term economy of scale projects to make money. If they didn't do the numbers based on long term and sensible projected demand increases, then I'll be out along with a lot of other investors.

I read a story in the China daily that says they're building LNG import plants like mad. They do have domestic supplies, but with a BILLION people they'll need the infrastructure to support a growing consumer society. They want to be like America. Who brought HUMMER?

Interesting times ahead, be safe.

mark100
11-02-2010, 10:25 PM
BG's recent results annoucement make good listening. You can listen to their webcast on their web site. Around 45mins in they describe their Australian LNG project as the 'jewel in the crown' of their LNG portfolio which I though was a pretty big call for a company with operations as diverse as theirs. They also said the Gladstone LNG project would be profitable down to an oil price of $30/barrel.

I wish STO and BG had of merged their projects but it seems too late for that now. I still think STO and AOE would make a good merger. They would have enough reserves for multiple trains which is where you get economies of scale

ratkin
12-02-2010, 05:04 AM
No , im not holding , i missed the boat last year with this sector. Am hoping for a major correction to take prices back down (maybe now is good time for AOE?)
Just has the same feel as the nickle sector of a couple of years ago . Its hot to trot. worried the reality isnt going to live upto the hype

winner69
25-02-2010, 08:02 PM
No , im not holding , i missed the boat last year with this sector. Am hoping for a major correction to take prices back down (maybe now is good time for AOE?)
Just has the same feel as the nickle sector of a couple of years ago . Its hot to trot. worried the reality isnt going to live upto the hype

You probably right there ratkin .... looks like this gas thing was a bubble after all and won't live up to the hype

I got sucked in a month or so ago when the share price was about 430 ... went to 450 plus and it was all going well .... but had to bail out around the 400 mark ... jeez I hate losing money ... esp on something I don't really know much about

Anyway at 333 and heading downhill fast looks like the bubble has burst eh ... and generally they don't reinflate do they

Will keep watching though ... never know maybe an opportunity to make money on this after all

STRAT
25-02-2010, 08:21 PM
... never know maybe an opportunity to make money on this after allHi W69,
Long term this has been a winner for share holders. The company certainly has a good track record for adding value for share holders. Might be an opportunity in the making.