View Full Version : Gartley/Butterfly patterns
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This MT custom indicator picks up harmonic points - although I spotted a Gartley last night (and made a profit from it) that it missed. Possible reason being the B-C parameters in the code.
Indicators lines are formed in Turquoise - my addition is in heavy green
http://i27.tinypic.com/2i7lqqd.gif
Hi Peat
What would you have needed for the blue to activate?
the way I'm working with butterflies is that they need to confirm by going past the resistance/support level at around the point (usually just above/below) where the two triangles join. Its not where they join exactly! Its where you see price hover and jump around a bit. This is what I got from the CMC webinar - so in this case the blue butterfly failed because it didnt break 1025
i'm not saying this always works - see USD/JPY for a failure - but its an approach I seem to have cemented into my thinking. gives me some solid parameters to work with. only problem is of course that this confirmation point is generally a long way up from D so while D would usually be the stop generally its too much to risk.
Using my eyeball backtesting I see a lot of breaks of this 'just above/below B' point where there is a real runaway into the direction the butterfly suggests.
If it breaks that level the resistance becomes support of course and it could be used as a very conservative stop in itself.
The custom indicator has just come up with a weird BF on GBP.JPY
Peat - Red line is your entry point I think
http://i26.tinypic.com/106ghuu.gif
It hasn't found this Gartley yet (my lines in red)
http://i28.tinypic.com/dvn3wj.gif
Peat - Red line is your entry point I think
applying my principles it would be a little lower say where those two black candles in the 30 min chart find support , that would have to be breached - say a close below 149.85 (not that I will trade ninja tonight)
added to my existing short Euro positions at the top dotted purple line on this EurUSD Gartley ;ast night. The peak coincided exactly with the ECB decision on rates.
arco
I did actually try to play Ninja using the butterfly approach in short time frames to get an entry at the top - with very low risk , but volatility snaffled it up.
applying my principles it would be a little lower say where those two black candles in the 30 min chart find support , that would have to be breached - say a close below 149.85 (not that I will trade ninja tonight)
Hi Peat
The blue shadings mysteriously vanished overnight, and the pattern didnt give a trade as yet.
There's still a possibility of a rise to 152 area IMO, but currently based on the chart pattern
my entry would be below 150.87 pivot low. Target about 40 pips. (B)
My red Gartley lines are still in place, (and the old red marker).
http://i28.tinypic.com/213qkbr.gif
added to my existing short Euro positions at the top dotted purple line on this EurUSD Gartley ;ast night. The peak coincided exactly with the ECB decision on rates.
Hi Peat
Yes, volatility on the Beast is a major problem for SL placement
Looking at the 15m custom indicator chart the Harmonics become quite frantic, but you can see my addition in blue (to the right). If that scenario plays out it will provide a mini BF and a maxi Gartley (Red). Nice combination.
http://i29.tinypic.com/4gntjo.gif
The projection didn't work out, but there has been a bullish BF (ending near ,707) which could have been good for 20-40 pips, and currently a Gartley
http://i25.tinypic.com/ms2ma1.gif
heres an example of the butterfly and the point where it activated on the SP500 last night.
Nice example Peat.
Looks like it would have worked similarly using an EW count, so a good combo confirmation in this case.
http://i25.tinypic.com/qsqf41.jpg
Small BF at the top of this Triangle.
I managed to get some pips off a scalp on the down leg
http://i32.tinypic.com/e1108.gif
Euro butterfly in cyan has only just begun... target 1.45
Noticed that a butterfly on the Aussie 200 has activated
bearish gartley on the kiwi. I have a pretty low success rate with the kiwi so wont overdo this trade but will give it a go.
well the kiwi worked out ok, theoretical target was 6950 which did get hit , tho I took profits sooner than that ....
this time theres a bearish gartley on the 3 hourly (since early Feb) of the Eur/Jpy and that has culminated in a bearish butterfly over the last few days which has activated , so I am short from 124.37
Eur/Jpy short +150 a mere few hours later....
Bobcat.
25-02-2010, 12:12 PM
EUR/JPY has found solid support at 121.69 twice today. OANDA are still bearish (expecting a downside play around 122.75), so I'll watch what it does around that price. But as soon as the USD/JPY punches through 90.25, I'm going long (sometime this afternoon after BOJ starts its action?) What will help is if EUR/USD which is due for a breakout, breaks upside (late afternoon?). BTW, be careful around 10am (NZT) - that's when the USD bulls enter the market to reverse it.
conflicting harmonic patterns on silver
the bullish butterfly in yellow and a bearish gartley in red
i prefer the bullish side myself. with support now at the blue line.
(looks like the red lines arent too visible unless you open up the graphic)
Silverlight
26-04-2010, 05:45 PM
Whats the best book or best online document to read regarding gartley patterns, prefer something about 10 pages or less, thanks in adavnce.
There looks potentially like one of these patterns forming on the daily/weekly chart for AUDUSD.
this thread probably has some value but try this
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/images/TradingtheGARTLEY222.pdf
silverlight , I had a look at FPH after your post in the NZX thread and drew this.
Silverlight
26-04-2010, 11:00 PM
Thats awesome, thanks, I will have a read over the next few days, you are a wealth of information!
Silverlight
27-04-2010, 12:55 PM
This looks like an interesting example setting up on GBPUSD, would welcome thoughts on my analysis
X to A was 330 pips
A to B was 230 pips (or 70% of XA, textbook should be 61.8%)
B to C was 125 pips (or 55% of AB, textbook 61.8 - 78.6)
C to D(?) was 202 pips (or 160% of BC, textbook 127 -161.8)
A to D(?) was 306 pips (or 92% of XA, text book 78.6)
If you increase the multiplier to 15% they all fit.
A< C ? YES
C< B ? YES
B< D ? YES
D< X ? YES
So could we expect a move south of 500 pips or so?
Place a stop loss above X at 1.5530.
I just wonder if the gartley has already played out see my pic
you can see I take an earlier point for A which is still more than 61.8% retracement but then corrects before heading off to your A point which I label as D. From there we have a correction down to the 32% retracement (which is the first target point for a gartely) so I just wonder if a gartley has already happend
Arco (the expert on harmonics) used to say beware the gartley that morphs into a buttefly. A butterfly eventually retraces to 127% (which hits the stop on a gartley at the 100% point) before making the (in this case) down move.
here is a graphic of the major harmonic patterns as from Carney
Silverlight
28-04-2010, 11:52 AM
So didn't take a position, but a move from the 'D' point so far of 250+ pips.
yes would've been good
the S+P completed and played out a butterfly setup
I've posted previously about the trigger point for butterflys being just below the B point as shown here in the blue rectangle. target A point was reached already here on this hourly.
I like this setup better than the gartley now as I have a objective method I can apply to it as shown in the 2nd pic (bullish butterfly)
Silverlight
17-06-2010, 12:45 PM
Welcome analysis on this pattern, Daily XAUAUD (oz gold)
hey silverlight
you picked a good night to ask a question , sat my last exam this afternoon... have some time now.
Bearish Bat? I attach the bat from my harmonics guide for you to compare
hope you're doing well with that silverlight
Aussie Gold now 128 dollars/oz lower than previous post
AUD/USD is also displaying a perfect bearish gartly which seemed to kick in exactly at the 90.5 c point with todays move down
S+P offers a harmonic pattern that didnt quite fulfil the requirement of the final high to exceed the original high to make it a butterfly - D should be greater than X
however more recetnly I see these patterns as really providing support resistance around the B points and in this instance theres a clear breakthrough down below the purple triangle line which is the trigger point for the short.
so I'll be selling even more around the 1090-1100 area should it go back there.
Hi Peat
I gave this trade on the blog 3rd August based on Ichimoku elements, although it also worked as a nice harmonic pattern.
RESULT +501 POINTS.
2831
ORIGINAL POST from 3RD Aug
2832
hey arco
yes there were lots of different methodologies all pointing to a fall in the stock market. eg the wedge , the count, the harmonics.
not sure how ichi could've foretold it though. it mainly only seems to tell things after the event imo or if you are working off a bigger time frame.
resistance from the purple area shown in the earlier post zoomed in on here now being tested and rejected on this occasion
Hi Peat
I predicted a move up to 9300 last night on Nikkei for max +225 points, and if anyone was a awake this morning it formed a nice BF on the 1H to play south as well.
http://i37.tinypic.com/9ay44n.gif
2846
what was your basis for the prediction - resistance at top of the cloud?
I dont follow the Nikkei at all. and I've been busy with study - quite a few reports due this week..
resistance from the purple area shown in the earlier post zoomed in on here now being tested and rejected on this occasion
rejected again. quick selloff from 1099 same as y'day -
been doing good selling into these rallies.
Zorrro
18-05-2011, 07:02 AM
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rgds Zarif
3520
the B and D points are right on the 61.8 and the 76.4% fib levels and i reckon a minimum target would have to be the 38% fib retracement so somewhere around 1030 ish area
but sometimes thats just the start. I used a line chart to keep the shapes more angular and defined and its weekly so kind of coarse
I stupidly held short positions from 1100 up and have experienced pain but finally seeing a recovery.
the volatility today has been astounding
Pumice
09-08-2011, 09:56 PM
Still a bit of a way to go then.
Should mean further weaknes for the NZD. Hopefully.
3530
SocGen showing a couple of lovely harmonic patterns , the orange shape is a perfect bearish gartley , but the purple shapes first retracement only went to the 50% fib , reminding us that its the 76% fib that is the more important level.
perfect gartley on the S+P over the last 10 days. divergence....
price at 1268 now
12 hours later down 36 points
roddy
22-08-2013, 10:08 PM
thought i would post 3 butterflies on the gbp/usd 4 hourly ,the first butterfly is not quite strictly correct with a drop leg apart from that there should be a reversal which is starting to play out
divergence on indicator and break down through a good support level
4738
hey ROddy that first butterfly on cable is quite perfect in price tho pretty wonky in time.
It failed when it turned around at the 1.51 level but until that point had looked quite promising.
However the reason it failed imho is because it is a bearish butterfly but is appearing at the end of a long period of decline (as opposed to a period of increase).
A reversal pattern appears after a significant movement in one direction or the other to indicate a reversal in the trend.
I see it more like this
4742
all in my humble opinion of course
A timely video, thought you might find this interesting Roddy
http://youtu.be/WDCNQ0LTJls
roddy
28-08-2013, 09:26 AM
Hi Peat
yes definitely 100 % agree Peat how you have drawn your butterfly , I am short just below the the strong support resistance area of 1.56 and had the 3 butterflies as confluence ,confirming
the trade as they are within 50 pips of each other and theres some divergence on the indicator, i totally agree with all your comments
roddy
28-08-2013, 07:43 PM
on the Eur/cad the weekly is showing resistance at 1.43 and the butterfly which started back in jan is now more or less at 161 ext.
the daily has another butterfly is at 161 ext now. i would like a spike up ideally toward 1.43 with a nice reversal candle for a good entry in the PRZ
unfortunately for some reason manage attachments wont work and i cant upload to this page, it says my charts are of the wrong type but i uploaded just a few days ago
i will keep trying .
regard the timely video perhaps they may consider going from GMT time to Fib time
roddy
05-09-2013, 08:45 AM
here is a butterfly on the 2 hr AUD/USD
the aud has been quite strong the last few days, but its interesting how its stopped
right at the 161 ext
of note it has a good level of resistance just above the 161.8 D leg .9200
a weekly pivot also
i will only go short if theres a spike up with a reversal candle
and divergence on the indicators
Howabout this potential butterfly as a predictive tool to look for a turnaround in the S+P at 1815, perhaps precipitated when we finally get some tapering
Shown on a monthly chart the fib extension is 1815 being 127% of the XA leg (I chopped it off in the screen grab sorry).
4838
But we now have a D leg heading to the 127% fib and within the definition of the butterfly it can go anywhere between 127 and 161% so need to wait for further signals yet. Just waiting in the wings as Arco would have said.
4839
Roddy
on my platform AUD/USD went lower on Aug 31st (D point below A point) so that invalidates the butterfly formation , so it looks like a double bottom.
Also, as I said before the bearish butterfly is a reversal pattern so you need to look for it after a sustained rise not as is this case the fall from Aug 19th.
A nice gartley (close enough) in white and a butterfly in pink combined for this setup preciptitating a sharp sell off on a the NZD short time frame.
4853
I got quick pips here.
roddy
25-09-2013, 11:09 AM
Hi Peat
sorry i didnt realise you had been posting ,i will check in more often and hopefully find a butterflies too,yes nice trade on the nzd
Getting close at 1785 now !
howabout this potential butterfly as a predictive tool to look for a turnaround in the s+p at 1815, perhaps precipitated when we finally get some tapering
shown on a monthly chart the fib extension is 1815 being 127% of the xa leg (i chopped it off in the screen grab sorry).
4838
but we now have a d leg heading to the 127% fib and within the definition of the butterfly it can go anywhere between 127 and 161% so need to wait for further signals yet. Just waiting in the wings as arco would have said.
4839
roddy
18-11-2013, 07:56 PM
Hi Peat,
great spotting there Peat ,i havent got a broker who i can trade the sp 500 so will be looking on with interest
i have a daily chart of CAD JPY . i like the over head resistance at 97.50 which has been resistance since june and that the same level
is 161 ext of xa, i would like to see a spike up with a reversal candle for entry,however "its not quite in the batters box yet" but on the watch list
roddy
18-11-2013, 08:10 PM
heres the GBP JPY which is at a similar postion , i am keeping an eye on it for possible reversal, theres no
local resistance ,but none the less i am keeping an eye on it as its near the PRZ
Perfect Bullish Gartley on Silver over the last six months. It really needs to move from here to confirm though. Indicators have either not turned yet or have just started to but CCI and RSI have moved out of being oversold
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