View Full Version : Gartley/Butterfly patterns
Xerof
21-09-2005, 07:35 PM
Can I suggest a separate thread to focus on these formations, as I personally would like to gain experience in trading them.
Maybe this thread can be considered an experimental/learning/'trade at own peril' type of thread.
To start with I had already identified a nice one on the daily euro (see EUR thread earlier today), after the event, and as a matter of fact had found another fine example of a bullish gartley on the USD.CHF daily chart as well.
Its a real nuisance that we can't post charts on the forex threads so I'll post my XABCD points as I see them and people will just have to set them up on their own charts to see the formations
X = 1.1750 way back in April
A = 1.3085
B = 1.2435 - close to fib 50
C = 1.2790 - fib 50 - nice!
D = 1.2240
The problem I had with this one was AB didn't quite equal CD - the difference was 100 pips.
Our resident expert might like to comment on whether that entirely invalidates the Gartley or is wiggle allowable?
Anyway, the price action since then has been all the way back to just over fib 61.8%, which is 'ideal' target, and I wonder if that is it for this formation, given the sell-off in Asia today.
What I'd like to know is:
should one be brave enough to trade Point C if wave B has a perfect set-up, or are these formations focussing simply on Point D entries?
Actually XA would be nice to get as well:D:D
I can see the apparent 'danger' that a Gartley might develop into a Butterfly at the expected point D, but would have thought that the length of AB, provided BC is a nice fib 50%, would leave one fairly confident of CD's length.
I have another one which might be developing in the AUD 60 min chart, and will post my ideas on that shortly
Xerof the white cabbage
Xerof
21-09-2005, 07:59 PM
Right, this ones an 'emerging' bullish Gartley on the AUD.USD 60 minute chart
X = 7612, just a couple of days ago
A = 7722
B = 7652, fib 61.8% (nice)
C = MAY have just been seen at 7710 a matter of minutes ago
So, if this is to develop further, 7710 really should contain the last rally and we should see
D = circa 7640, for another move north to a minimum 61.8% or 7685
Just a small one to start with[:p][:p]
Xerof
21-09-2005, 09:39 PM
or.....
AUD.USD - an alternative which appears more developed.... 360 min chart - Bearish Butterfly
X = .7770
A = .7613
B = .7723 fib 61.8
C = .7652 fib 61.8
D = target area for sell .7762
No replies please - if all this turns to custard I'm deleting the thread in embarrassment[:I][:I]
Xerof
Charts can be posted here on ST using the following method
Download MW Snap free from
http://www.mirekw.com/winfreeware/mwsnap.html
Save the charts you 'snap' to a free Image Hosting site
either/or
http://imageshack.us/
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/
arco
Xerof
22-09-2005, 02:44 PM
Thanks for the advice Arco, Imageshack was the missing link I needed. I have Screenprint, and there's also a snap function on Esignal
Here's the Euro bearish butterfly I was talking about. As I said, nice in hindsight.....
Wondering now whether the downmove is over and we see a retrace to 50 or 61.8 fib levels, although reaction off 12270, close enough to the 12283 38.2% level has been fairly swift at the Asian open
rumors of a Rita downgrade ... oh really?....
Anyway I'm now all set to clog the thread with images.
Having said that I'm out of posting range for 2 weeks
See y'all in October
Xerof
I've taken the chart out to reduce the width of this thread
Xerof
22-09-2005, 02:46 PM
God, its a big piccy. Any way of scaling it down to a reasonable size?
Xerof
There should be facilities either in Screenprint or
Imageshack to re-size the images. Or you can reduce
the size of the chart window before you snap it.
I lost my 'Screenprint' Gold program when the computer
fried and it is unavailable now for free. Bah [V]- it
was the best snap taker IMO.
Have a nice trip...I presume your legs will be shorter
when you get back. :D
arco
There was a nice Butterfly on the EUR.USD 15m today.
It started at midnight and completed D-1618 at 12noon for a fall of circa 73 pips in 2 hours and there could be a little more left.
Missed it myself as I was out and about. [V]
But I am up 30 on the GBP>JPY so thats something ;)
arco
Xerof
22-09-2005, 04:56 PM
Yes I did the platinum trial, but there was no free gold option after that, so I coughed up for screenprint.
C'mon Arco, don't be miserable it only one or two pips cost from all those profitable trades you've done:D:D
Aye, theres a wee problem getting anything out of mi sporren.
McArco
Xerof
23-09-2005, 10:39 AM
McArco,
I see you've moved, denigrated Mr Buffet, and changed your heritage all of a sudden.
Has the Monarch of the Glen turned over or found a new leaf?
Och Aye
Xerrrrrof - (a little closer to Gore for the next 2 weeks:D:D)
Morning Xerof
A moment of boredom and a bottle of red wine :D
Have a nice trip to the frozen south.
I am in my shorts here in Bermuda.
The Red Admiral ;)
What do you mean frozen south, I'm sitting outside in my thermal underwear lapping up the -12 wind chill easterly[8D]very[8D]
Cheers
Slam
Just to show when a Gartley and Butterfly come together they can act as a powerful force.
Of course the Gartley could always disapoint and turn into a Red Admiral.
Coffee - just a mugs game ;)
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101105_701.gif
Xerof
12-10-2005, 10:34 AM
Sweet Arco, whats the sugar contract looking like - I like a spoonful with my coffee:D:D
Xerof
Xerof
19-10-2005, 09:39 AM
Here's one that's followed the text books very nicely.
I missed the first smaller one as it turned down early, but last nights move right to the top of the batters box allowed me to get a greedy sell done at 1.3048, with little stress beyond that level.
Note that it looked likely initially to be a gartley, with the stalling around 1.2940, but only fell back to the strong trendline before resuming the rally. This time its broken the trendline, and has MACD confirmation.
The three red lines are H, L and mid 34 EMA, which are also flattening out. I use this 'wave' as a visual aid for what the prevailing trend is - no more than that
Trailing stop at b/e at the moment and will see what happens
http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/6093/usdchf1xh.png
Xerof
Stopped at b/e[xx(]
Xerof
19-10-2005, 10:43 AM
I was also lurking on the bid just below 11900 for this one, but, unlike USD.CHF, it failed to get far enough into the zone for me.
http://img423.imageshack.us/img423/6281/eurusd9ay.png
Xerof
Morning Xerof
You may not have missed the boat. Only time will tell but there is still another scenario lurking IMO.
This is not a traditional Butterfly pattern as we know it but if it completes I call it 'Cliffhanger'. (It's in the book if I ever get it finished [:I])
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101905_276.gif
Xerof
19-10-2005, 12:37 PM
yes, a different perspective when looking at weekly charts. I've been limiting it to much shorter time frames, but will spend the afternoon setting up weeklies
Can I pre-order your book Arco, in case they all go on the first day:D:D
Xerof
Oh, I see its actually a daily - I hadn't seen that one on my daily - investigating now[:p][:p]
Xerof - I've decided to make it a limited edition.
What do you reckon its worth ?
Legend has it that book written in the 30's by a dude named Gartley sold for $1500 per copy then. About the cost of three small cars in those days I reckon! :D
arco
Xerof
19-10-2005, 01:33 PM
Well.... send me a draft and I'll evaluate it for you:D:D
Xerof the proof reader
Xerof
20-10-2005, 10:17 AM
Bugger.... updating yesterdays chart shows why.
As a short term trade set-up, this had the perfect reversal in the batters box.
And I'd put my net away...
http://img437.imageshack.us/img437/3489/surusd5ps.png
Xerof
Sods Law again :D
...............or the Revenge of the Butterflies
http://www.hi-beam.net/cgi-bin/ann.pl?type=newwork&readfile=108.ann&showimages=
Xerof
20-10-2005, 10:45 AM
:D:D
quote:Rossi played the [u]Madonna</u>-like woman in the film
Now Arco, there's an unhealthy pattern emerging here:D:D
Xerof
03-11-2005, 05:38 PM
A nice example of these formations, as well as the classic triangle breakout to back it up.
Pity it was one of my 'test' cases....
http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/6639/nzdgbp8mw.png
Xerof
For screen watchers, scalping using choosen patterns can prove very profitable.
I intended to show this CHF chart last night but the dinner gong sounded and that was the end of posting for the day. A Butterfly and Gartley respectively gave max 15 and max 18 allowing for 3 pip spread.
Even taking an average of just 10 pips from each leg gave a good return - around US$1536 on 1 mill.
GTA - arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110905chf5m_143.gif
Hi All
Can one of you Gartley/Butterfly patterns guys have a quick look at the AUD/USD pair for me? (namely xerof & arco):)
The daily chart looks familiar, but I'm not sure on the proportions
tia
Slam
On another look it could be a wolf wave maybe
Xerof
12-01-2006, 05:09 PM
woof woof Slam
try this for a few AUD wolfes over at moneytec as a starter, but they're smaller time frames, and history now...
We could perhaps refer to them as dingos [8D][8D]
http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showthread.php?p=168327#post168327
Don't profess to be WW expert in any shape or form is this what you're hoping for?
http://img78.imageshack.us/img78/268/aud5lw.png
The pink line is a Dynamic Gann Line (DGL) which I've used as a guide for the end of the 5 leg, but it could well be right here at current levels....
Xerwolfe
That's the one Xerof
WW worked on this one before so it may be worth a look.
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
19-01-2006, 09:53 PM
After the Xmas/NY break, the butterflies are re-emerging....here's a short termer on CHF, having moved to the requisite 1.618% extension level
http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/4821/chf7je.png
Xerof
Xerof
27-01-2006, 09:34 PM
Evening all,
A possibility tonight perhaps? The common Gartley variety....
AB = CD at 116.63, high today 116.60.....
http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/7409/jpy3sb.png
Xerof
Xerof
29-01-2006, 03:53 PM
Ah well, butterfly it is then....
Hi Xerof
I've been long USD/JPY scince 116.32:)
You have any targets for the butterfly?
I have it circa 118.05
tia
Slam
Xerof
30-01-2006, 09:27 AM
Slam,
it could be a Bat, in which case the target is 117.60 (88.6% of XA), but if its morphing to butterfly stage, the targets anywhere between 119.35 and 121.00 (127.2% to 161.8% of XA)[:p][:p]
You've got a free ride now, so run a trialing stop on it
It momentarily looked like the Gartley would hold to form late Friday night, but not to be.
http://img468.imageshack.us/img468/8213/jpy0ck.png
Xerof
Xerof
30-01-2006, 12:20 PM
FWIW, Slam,
Max is looking for an imminent reversal.....so maybe the Bat is more applicable.....
Xerof
Thanks for the info Xerof
Running a tight stop at 6.90 and happy with pips there.
Will follow it up if it goes that way.
Not looking to good today though
Cheers
Slam
Always a possibility.............
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/020206_gpb.usd_190.gif
arco
Xerof
23-02-2006, 07:09 PM
These two yen cross pairs are moving in tandem, with nice structures forming. Ones to watch for reversal from the indicated "batters boxes"
http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/3662/eurjpy9an.png
http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/4593/gbpjpy1uu.png
Xerof
Xerof
25-02-2006, 05:03 PM
quick update to Thursdays charts
Eur/yen has moved decisively to the minimum target at 127.2% with a daily close this morning at 138.75:D:D
Gbp/yen is declining in an orderly fashion, lower by 150 pips since posting. Further to go yet - 200.00 seems a nice round number
Xerof
Xerof
27-02-2006, 08:34 PM
Both travelling very nicely!! - almost with indecent haste :D:D
In fact so well, they might even morph to butterflies.
http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/4653/eurjpy7gl.png
http://img521.imageshack.us/img521/3496/gbpjpy4jq.png
Xerof
Xerof
08-03-2006, 09:39 AM
Just to update and complete those last two charts - the original charts indicating gartleys in fact proved closer to the mark - trailing stops to the rescue for shorts, and also offered nice long trades for gartley enthusiasts who were brave enough - not I.....
Xerof
Heres a nice pair of twins...........
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/042906_usd.cad.gif
arco
Action now entered the box
http://img477.imageshack.us/img477/9899/050306butts2tv.gif
regards - arco
roddy
05-09-2006, 12:34 PM
http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/791/noname2jf6.jpg
Image of daily JPY,slightly after the event though.
My interpretation is a bearish gartley with reasonable harmonics.
the ideal B should be .618 retrace of XA =116.55
and D should be .786 retrace XA =117.13
Am i on the right track
Cheers
cadet roddy
roddy
05-09-2006, 01:25 PM
http://img122.imageshack.us/img122/3436/noname3sw0.jpg
bullish crab
target 1.08 which is 1.618 level
Cheers
cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
JPY...yes that certainly could have given a quick profitable trade, but please bear in mind Gartleys can have a nasty habit of turning into Butterflies (especially when the B is extended).
CAD - yes looks like a pattern in progress. Good spotting.
Regards - arco
Dazza
05-09-2006, 09:01 PM
the crab failed?
1111 now
roddy
05-09-2006, 09:10 PM
Hi Arco
i had a look on the Harmonic site at the different patterns and i see what you mean!thank you for that
Does anyone know of a site that offers free real time charts with Fib that has functionality to draw nice butterflys/gartleys etc
my metastock is EOD, so not much help in that regard!
cheers
cadet roddy
Dazza - the Crab has not completely formed yet, so it cannot be classed as a failure as it does not even exist.
Roddy - check out MarketWarrior 4.0.177 Not sure if it will be of any use. I dont use it myself
regards - arco
roddy
05-09-2006, 09:45 PM
Hi Dazza
<the crab failed?>
looks like he has been carried up the beach in a sudden surge,at this point i cant tell whether he will find his way back down the beach, and into the sea to the batters box, for his monent of glory, or be carried further toward the hide tide mark! Though the tide has been falling since 15/8
cheers
cadet roddy
Xerof
05-09-2006, 10:01 PM
Roddy,
or download any of the MT4 platforms as demo (most are unlimited time - if not just re-register under a different name!)
www.strategybuilderfx.com/ for the SBFX platform
or the one that I use (as I think its data feed is a bit more reliable) is at
www.alpari-idc.com/ - just open a forex and CFD demo account, and Bob's your uncle[8D]
BTW, a lot of the forex forum sites have all sorts of MT4 indicators freely available, but you need to spend some days trolling through threads that may be of interest to you, to find what you want
www.forexfactory.com/
www.forex-tsd.com/
www.strategybuilderfx.com/
are the main ones I lurk at:D;)[8D][:p]
Xerof
Xerof
07-09-2006, 12:11 PM
Here's one that may be of interest - not a perfect specimen but worth keeping an eye on.
Might be already on the way back up, but could also still enter the D zone in high/mid 187's
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/448/gbpyq6.gif
Xerof
Dazza
07-09-2006, 05:34 PM
what FX cross is that xerof
Xerof
07-09-2006, 06:09 PM
Dazza,
GBP/USD
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Thanks for posting the chart.
Good support circa 8800 with allows a low risk entry on a 123 IMO.
Regards - arco
This could be serious.......big breakdown at 8800 on the Magino line, so its definately a no go on the old 1.2.3 so far.
roddy
08-09-2006, 12:00 AM
Hi Arco
Blair is supposed to be making a speech between 1300-1400 gmt regard his future etc, its getting late over here,good luck for the 123 entry,
>Tony Blair could quit as UK PM as early as May 4 >next year, according to some
>MPs (Sky News website). Blair is expected to make >an announcement on his future
>plans later today. Robert.Howard@thomson.com /PS
cheers roddy
Hi Roddy
Thanks for that info.
No more trades today. I'll be going to bed flat.
Lets see what tomorrow brings
GTA - arco
Generally considered one of the great failures of military history, the term "Maginot Line" is now sometimes used as a metaphor for something that is confidently relied upon despite being ineffective.
It could be argued that this association is inaccurate, as the Line achieved the specific task it was intended to do, rendering a direct assault against France's Eastern border impossible (the few Maginot forts which were directly attacked by German armoured troops held very well). It would be more truthful to state that the Line was sound, but France's strategic use of it was poor.
roddy
11-09-2006, 10:50 AM
Hi Xerof
Is The butterfly you posted above of the GBP/US
a hourly chart, my daily looks different, i drew X starting at 1.8760 and D is sitting 1.276% presently!hoping its differing time frames. Not sure i have started X at the right place, perhaps it should be at 1.8550 levels have had to many late nights!lately! B is quite high. any comments
http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/7448/noname8et9.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
Xerof
11-09-2006, 12:56 PM
Yes, mine was an hourly chart, but has clearly gone beyond the pale....for a D reversal.
Your daily looks appealing, but I would have X starting from the either the 18380ish low, or even the one at 18180ish!
Xerof
Morning All
A wet and windy day here in QLD :(
GBP. I calculate a major Gann support area circa 8618 - 8555 (extreme) which may halt/reverse this south move.
Regards
arco
roddy
11-09-2006, 08:59 PM
Hi Xerof
thank you for the feedback,GBP has quite some way to go then before it comes into reversal zone,especially if it has to battle the major!
Arco i looked up asx for info on plotting Gann fan,my metastock fan has 9 lines on it and only appears to work on longs as it only points upward,i tried to see how you arrived at 8618-8555 was it using fan or something which is beyond the scope of this forum,asx fan did a full 180, top to bottom of chart, just curious as per usual.
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
Theres a handle on the 5th line of the fan that allows you to pull it around and place it wherever...........have a go and let me know how you get on.
regards - arco
roddy
11-09-2006, 11:32 PM
Hi Arco
Yes great it worked really well and came up with same 8618-8555.i take it that fan lines work as resistance support etc, interesting the same fan line previously 81850 was support as well,a support line thats not flat,now that is something for my synapses to work on!
thanks
cheers cadet roddy
Xerof
12-09-2006, 12:19 AM
Never actually worked out how to use the gann fan tool...lol...could someone kindly post a chart showing which points are relevant?
I can see how to manipulate the 5th line Ok, but where to put it...oh deary me....
Just as an example please?
TIA
Xerof
roddy
12-09-2006, 09:01 AM
Hi Arco/Xerof
Arco
i have only guessed at which points are relevant, drawing from high to low downtrend or low to high for an uptrend,your comments much appreciated!
both charts are NZD
Any particular time frame work best or is that up to the individual.
http://img478.imageshack.us/img478/5219/noname01ah4.jpg
http://img478.imageshack.us/img478/1350/noname9kh1.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
if i look at it to long it starts to have a three d effect,like the side of a building
Hi Xerof/Roddy
I don't personally use the Gann Fan.
My Gann calcs are based on some ideas I got
from reading Ganns work + DGL's.
Regards - arco
Xerof
14-09-2006, 09:03 PM
Hmmm, nice ....
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/6810/nzdvf2.gif
Xerof
HI Xerof
Looking pretty strong at the mom.....depending on ones stance, an EOD reversal pattern btw 6600-6720 on the daily might be the catlyst for a nice short IMO.
Dazza
14-11-2006, 02:56 AM
EUR/USD
1 month 30 min chart
x at 2820 nov 9th
a at 2900 nov 10th
b at 2840 nov 10th
c at 2880 nov 13th
d at 2830 nov 13th
what do u reackon guys?
target? how do u measure targets?
roddy
14-11-2006, 09:51 PM
Hi Dazza
Good spotting for that hour of the morning my brain likes to be asleep in the wee early hours
Did you take the trade from 1.2795 area which is 127
level on the figures you quoted?
cheers cadet roddy
Dazza
14-11-2006, 10:22 PM
no i missed it
i longed around 2840
with stop loss at 2810
><
got stopped out eh
Xerof
18-11-2006, 12:13 PM
Maybe one to consider next week....
A Wolfe/Butterfly combo
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/3661/usdcadcp1.gif
Xerof
roddy
23-11-2006, 09:38 PM
Hi Xerof/all
your trade has retraced well from fib 1.272 level,
what do you think of this,not sure whether x should be where i have it or higher at the 1.2830 level
http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/6848/noname07jm1.jpg
cheers roddy
Xerof
24-11-2006, 11:55 PM
USD/CAD update:
Shorted 1.1480, but like all public transport, the train was a little late leaving the station....
s/l is now at the 2-4 line intersection for +130 minimum
update: clipped my ticket for +130...might reboard next week
http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/9225/usdcadxf3.gif
Xerof
Xerof
25-11-2006, 12:08 AM
Roddy, I personally think this tells the story of recent price action
http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/7372/eursy1.gif
Xerof
Xerof
Excellent.
I took 2 x 60pips (targets hit while out at dinner with friends), and the last position without a target I managed to close at 1311 (jammy!!) for 84pips just before I went to bed.
Anyway, looks like a nice retrace and may be another opportunity.
Good weekend all - arco
roddy
25-11-2006, 09:58 PM
Xerof/Arco,
Great trading and thanks for posting,you two make it look so easy!
cheers and have a great weekend.
roddy
Xerof
30-11-2006, 01:24 AM
This GBP/USD weekly WW has been bandied about elsewhere, with a few eager beavers in wolves clothing ending up with the rear contents of their pants on fire by shorting at the 5 level.... but having now progressed to very near the top of the 'sweet spot' (simply a parallel 2-4 line extended from point 3) it might be of some interest....
Around 19550/19590 area has a few things going for it - last years high/168% fib extension of the 3-4 move and 100% fib expansion of 2-3 move, so there might just be some powerful forces in play...
I guess the way to play it is to stop-loss enter a short if we get below the '5' line on a weekly closing basis
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7950/gbpweeklylz5.gif
Anyway, just one to keep a beady eye on during the treacherously illiquid month of December [B)][B)]
regards
Xerof
Damn, forgot to put the target zone - somewhere circa 1.8000, in about 3 months time
Xerof
01-12-2006, 01:18 PM
GBP weekly wolfe
Ah well, so much for that one - duly despatched to the bottom drawer.
At least no damage done to capital....
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Maybe just wait for the 5 break to wear itself out, and do as you said re the upper line.
regards - arco
roddy
05-12-2006, 02:16 PM
jpy/usd
http://img82.imageshack.us/img82/8200/noname09xn5.jpg
cheers roddy
roddy
05-12-2006, 03:33 PM
Hi Arco
looks more like Dean Barkers NZL something than a butterfly!
http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/7003/noname100wj1.jpg
cheers roddy
Hi Roddy
Perfect Butteflies are certainly a rare breed, but if you are prepared to accept Mongrel Moths ;) you could make a start at 9/6 and you will then find EUR is at 1618 extension as we speak. Now its in the lap of the Ggods as to what happens next.
Medium/Long term I still expect EUR to go higher.
regards - arco
roddy
05-12-2006, 06:38 PM
Hi Arco,
Yes Arco i agree Euro definitely headed northward and is definitely in an uptrend with no top in sight as yet,so any retrace presents good buying!
i see what you mean about the mongrel moth,he has poor genetics and as such i think he will have to be a cull!
roddy
Xerof
05-12-2006, 06:57 PM
Here Roddy, you might need this fumigation kit.....:D:D
http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/6251/fumigationsw3.jpg
roddy
05-12-2006, 10:17 PM
Hi Xerof
do i fumigate as per above,:D
OR plan B hire Kenner less gst
http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/1096/noname103yl8.jpg
plan C swat
http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/118/noname104pq7.jpg:D:D
Not sure about the Electric Fly Swatter, - looks more like a bearish BAT to me[:0]
roddy
02-01-2007, 04:10 PM
Hi All
i hope everybody has had a great Xmas and New Year, if anybody has made the popular workout at the gym New Years
resolution,dont delay,get down there and sign up,i recommend it!
on an easier note heres chart of AUD/NZ
http://img373.imageshack.us/img373/5985/noname109br4.jpg
CHEERS roddy
roddy
08-01-2007, 04:19 PM
Here is CAD and as Xerof describes it well into the batters box!
http://img479.imageshack.us/img479/78/noname113uo4.jpg
Cheers Roddy
Scott Carney Files a Patent on Bats, Crabs, Butterflies and Gartleys
#20060235780 Methodology of utilizing fibonacci numbers to analyze and predict trends in financial markets
http://www.freshpatents.com/Methodology-of-utilizing-fibonacci-numbers-to-analyze-and-predict-trends-in-financial-markets-dt20061019ptan20060235780.php?type=description
he'll sue you Arco watch out!
http://www.biggie.co.nz/interaction/forum/images/smiles/bluelaugh.gif
Peat
Yep I've already changed my name to aroc and moved house, now all patterns will now be called shapes to protect the innocent ;)
GTA - aroc
I just discovered this shape - amazingly it seems to
have some nice fibonacci ratios. [:0]
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/Gif.gif
http://www.yesnet.yk.ca/schools/jackhulland/projects/butterflies/lifecycle/colouring/butterfly.gif
dumbass
18-09-2007, 06:51 PM
i thought it might be useful to review a few patterns and get a bit of a discussion going on
the most important points of these patterns and how to trade them.
THE BAT carneys favourite probably because he "invented it"
the pattern tests established support or resistance and can give a sharp reaction move
most important numbers 886 xa
b point retracement ideally a 50 or 38.2
carney would enter this pattern ( BAMM bat action magnet move ) at break of b point
plenty of pips available as bat is a deep retracement pattern and the b point is 50 or less
would be riskier in a gartley
target around d point completion ( potential reversal zone box )
other entry would be completion of d point . carney looks for test of harmonic levels eg 886 xa , 161 bc extn , 127 ab =cd with impulse reaction
to be continued with stop loss and targets
dumbass
18-09-2007, 07:22 PM
carrying on, stop loss set a tad below x point
entry fired on test of fib levels
initial target 38.2 of pattern ( xa) carney suggest a .382 trailing stop from initial reversal
point to extreme ( e ) . this was triggered and trade closed
missed out on big pips but you just cant win them all
DA
What date is your 'x' point................and your entry point/trigger
I have several possible 'x' points....... (still showing on my chart).
rgds - arco
dumbass
18-09-2007, 08:07 PM
this is aud chf x point 5/12/06
trigger i reckon carney would be blindly in somewhere on the reaction bar on 06/03/07
me being a bit of a jelly probably the test of 127 ab =cd on 07/03/07
dumbass
18-09-2007, 08:15 PM
i do believe your light years ahead of carney , i know from your previous posts you would not blindly trade these patterns .
it seems in volume 2 he has related the price action to rsi , which will provide added protection for trading alternate bats and butterflys as the price will print lower from x point but rsi should diverge.
not much use in crabs (price action too far away from x point) and gartleys no price low
I wonder how much trading Scott actually does with the patterns.
I havent read all the book yet, but so far havent seen any entry/exit ideas. As well as the patterns I would also like to see actual examples of entries/exits. Readers really need to know how to properly trade these patterns, plus money management ideas.
Did book 1 give this info?
Anyway, interesting to see the move ended spot on the 261.8
PS - have you read page 264?
roddy
19-09-2007, 09:42 AM
Hi DB /ARCO
initially to know what type of pattern is forming does it depend upon the B projection whether its .50 or over?
supposedly here is a bat in the making b 38.2 and currently price is 7272 so would Carney as soon as 7275 has been taken out, go long? with d extending to .7950 area being price reversal zone 886 of x a leg.am i on the right track?
http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/1322/nzd3ww3.jpg
dumbass
19-09-2007, 11:00 AM
morning roddy
from what carney says all patterns are unique and quite specific
in the retracement patterns the gartley has a very non negotiable 61.8 so that pattern forming could be a bat possibly overshooting 886 as its not an ideal 50
he refers to this thing called a bamm which means a bat printing that passes a b point on cd leg is atrigger to buy with target around 886 but like anything needs confirmation
dumbass
19-09-2007, 11:09 AM
morning roddy
from what carney says all patterns are unique and quite specific
in the retracement patterns the gartley has a very non negotiable 61.8 so that pattern forming could be a bat possibly overshooting 886 as its not an ideal 50
he refers to this thing called a bamm which means a bat printing that passes a b point on cd leg is atrigger to buy with target around 886 but like anything needs confirmation
Hi Roddy
I tend to think of patterns as being either a Gartley shape or a BF shape (or derivative). I personally dont worry now about any other names. Its basic Fibonacci after all is said and done.
Generally Gartleys B is 38.2-618 and BFs may go to 618-786. Occasionally potential Gartleys go on to become BFs and what you thought was going to be a BF ends as a Gartley.
Hobbs gives the Gartley B leg a 38.2-61.8 measure, Pesavento states a Gartley should have a B leg btw 618-786 75% of the time, and an AB=100%CD. Carney staes B must be exactly 618. So you will see, everyone has there own idea. Mr Gartley didnt even give a fib measure to the pattern, and he discovered the shape in 1935. Carney came up with a 5-0 pattern recently - I've always called it a drop leg butterfly. And so it goes on.
Have a look at Carneys site, bascially you get all the pattern measures there for free, and you can download PDFs on BAMM and 5-0.
http://www.harmonictrader.com/
rgds - arco
roddy
19-09-2007, 01:45 PM
DB/ARCO,
its starting to make more sense,do you trade the d leg,or wait
for price reversal zone
Roddy
Its a method that can be exploited, but I dont often do it that way
unless I have other signals to confirm.
Trading the D leg - you could basicially look to trade the B breakout,
unless you like aggressive trading off Fibs or Ganns on a potential C reversal.
(see Carneys free Bamm PDF for some ideas of D leg trading).
Gartley Watch
Check out Eur.Chf for a perfect Carney Gartley set-up with B = 618. We
can watch this one and see how it plays out.
"The Great Gartley Controversy"
http://www.harmonictrader.com/gcontroversy.htm
Alan Farley has a different set of parameters for a Gartley. Quote...........
Apply less common retracement strategies to avoid the crowd. H.M. Gartley described little-known Fibonacci relationships in his 1937 book "Profits in the Stock Market." The Gartley Pattern relies on a 78% retracement, and represents another way to capitalize on those caught in a 62% whipsaw. This classic setup, first described almost 70 years ago, works just as well now as it did during the Great Depression.
http://www.hardrightedge.com/images/cpwr0317.gif
dumbass
19-09-2007, 06:20 PM
afternoon guys , yeah interesting concept trading in the patterns , i do feel its something im going to have a bit more of a crack at, probably trying to identify bats.
i like carneys approach to rigid pattern parameters , it just seems to make it easier to apply.
interesting that pattern you posted arco from alan farley , i would say that could well be a bat in progress , 50 retracement , rough trend line through a - c point bounce in progress looking 886 completion.not impossible which i guess just goes to show how its a dynamic situation,
but certainly a profitable trade off that 786 what ever you call it
dumbass
19-09-2007, 07:26 PM
gartley on eur chf
Not FX but SP500 - spotted on Elite
Just for those that want to study the pattern.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1611243
roddy
20-09-2007, 10:46 AM
Hi ARCO/DB
in terms of the d point on the final leg, is 1.63 a more reliable prz than 1.27.do you trade the 127 or wait and see whether it hits 1.63 as in sp100 example
roddy
20-09-2007, 10:52 AM
ARCO/DB
continuing from my previous post heres a thought , the EURO at present is at 1.27 level and has had one down day,yesterday,what would be confirmation that yes it is going to reverse from here?
cheers roddy
dumbass
20-09-2007, 12:25 PM
my thoughts roddy on the euro are as follows
text book butterfly set up 1.27 xa 1.61 bc 127 ab=cd
key fib level is the 127xa
require a minimum ab =cd but preferably extended 127
bc projection least important but requires 1.61, 2, 2.24 and needs to compliment tight fib
levels of other parameters
the prz is a tight fib zone around 1.40
HOWEVER all this matters not one jot without confirmation , as perfect a set up as this is it can still only act as an alert and in no way guarantees anything.
so going short on this set up with only this pattern is in my mind risky
carney suggests waiting for a full test of all fib levels and terms this the terminal price bar , this defines the limits of the pattern and will be used as a stop loss.
the price should test all fib levels on initial test and then reverse
i would be reaching for indicators to give more info
the dinapoli that arco suggested can be used as follows
the lower window is a macd this is set to confirm main trend , the upper stochastic is set more sensitivly to give entry signals as retracements occur against main trend, (weak hands bailing)
the best cross is a right angle cross , the stochastic cross will most likely print before macd
neither have crossed yet .
q stick not showing any divergence or even break of simple trend line.
my ramblings roddy for what its worth
Roddy
The Harami formation suggest that the previous trend is coming
to an end, and therefore upside potential could certainly be limited now.
Harami are risky as a reversal confirmation (e.g. see 13/9), however
they must be viewed as a warning sign. BFs can always go to 1618, so no rush to enter here unless you are prepared to place a big SL. There will be plenty of pips when we get solid confirmation, and even if you miss Wave 1, wave 3 is always the big move.
I have dual Gann overhead circa 4035........ Oscillator is not in divergence.
An aggressive tactic would be to sell limit short at Gann. This is HIGH RISK, and
occasionally fails when the action heads higher to the next Gann. Test it out on a demo for fun maybe.
rgds - arco
DA/Roddy
Something else to consider/remember is the confluence of BFs at this point. Particularly pay attention to the monster from 2005/2006 that terminates in this region and slightly higher. (see old charts on the Euro thread). And our recent bullish hatchling from mid-june.
Rome wasnt built in a day....so a little patience may be required until the bulls become bears.
GTA -arco
roddy
20-09-2007, 07:52 PM
ARCO/DB
was fortunate enough to be watching just as EURO broke 3999 up 50 pips ,next target hopefully 161 level,see if i have enough fortitude to stay in trade until it starts to weaken
roddy
A 30 sec bar short term gartley ?
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/4310/eurusd30sec200907il9.th.jpg (http://img177.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurusd30sec200907il9.jpg)
or a 1 minute bearish gartley on the DOW seemed to do better.
http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/3839/dow1min200907qn5.th.jpg (http://img294.imageshack.us/my.php?image=dow1min200907qn5.jpg)
This NZD one from last night looks pretty perfect I think. Stretching out into longer time frames now with 5 min candles ;+)
http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/6018/nzdusd5min210907kx1.th.jpg (http://img215.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nzdusd5min210907kx1.jpg)
are they back to back here?
http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/7131/nzdusd5min210907bcy9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Evening Peat
Interesting point on the first BF you posted.
If you put an extra leg from the 1920 candle it produces a BF @ circa Fib 1272.
Triple confirmation - Gartley/BF/AB=CD..........always a bonus.
There was another smaller Gartley from 12.30 - 16.20 for about 50 pips so far.
arco
will this USDJPY 15min one have a happy ending? doing ok so far.
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/9862/usdjpy15min21092007sv2.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
dumbass
22-09-2007, 07:22 PM
watching and waiting
Steve
23-09-2007, 04:52 PM
Do you see the EURUSD hitting 1.45 before a meaningful downturn?
dumbass
23-09-2007, 06:58 PM
usd is not getting any loving at the moment
it feels a bit toppy now but nothing to act on as far as confirmation
this is another possible elliot wave count which could take wave 3 up to 146 and then who
knows for wave 5
is there a time frame when a gartley pattern expires ?
eg the 2nd one in my NZD hasnt really played out (yet) altho admittedly it never really dropped low enough to complete the requirements. still currently +29 tho so ok!
the USD/JPY one is playing out better ...
I must admit since trading gartleys my demo ac is looking a lot better.... gotta try and do this for a while before I try live again tho....
dumbass
24-09-2007, 02:20 PM
hi peat , its allways a bit of tricky one when these patterns dont do what they should,
i have tended to get out of patterns that dont react with some kind of reaction move
staight away , yeah you miss a few but i think its better to move on.
i do look at fib time lines , running from the mid point b to put some kind of time
expectation on as well
well perhaps I'm just being impatient on the NZD - its also forming a bit of an ascending triangle top at 7450 and ascending edge from 7326 so that may assist.
yes I've tried fib time lines as well using Oanda but I'm never quite sure how to place them - I have sometimes seen a correlation with the action but other times not so havent ever incorporated them into a strategy.
Euro has just spiked up a bit and this is now getter close to 1.4150 where I once saw a confluence of fib extensions so yes that may be a PRZ. some out there are getting very bullish too which maybe a contrarian indicator.
dumbass
24-09-2007, 03:05 PM
big mother of a butterfly running last couple of years with fib zone on 14150
every man and his dog shorting usd
setting up for good move
dumbass
24-09-2007, 07:33 PM
big picture eur usd
using this one as the poster boy for all usd pairs
its hard to think the USD CAD will go lower but isnt that what this is saying?
there was a strong green candle immediately after I took this snap and now both trades are triggered but its bounced off that and heading down again now
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/331/usdcad15min24092007ma5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
these are fun even with fake money which admittedly makes it much easier....
only a few minutes later and those two trades are +20 and +33
so the USD/CAD short isnt lookin promising altho as I said it offerred quick pips which is always a good start to a trade - allowing you to apply the adage 'never let a good trade go bad' - so yeh closing those at small negatives now.
But those other gartleys I've posted have all given rich pickings - have now closed the USD JPY's at approx +60 and + 90 and the Kiwis spiked up just now closed those at approx +70 +50.
Wish it was real haha!
For clarity
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gartley.asp
http://i.investopedia.com/inv/dictionary/terms/AT-AdvancedFib.gif
The above Gartley example shows an uptrend XA with a price reversal at A. Using Fibonacci ratios, the retracement AB should be 61.8% of the price range A minus X, as shown by line XB. At B, the price reverses again. Ideally, retracement BC should be between 61.8% and 78.6% of the AB price range, not the length of the lines, and is shown along the line AC. At C, the price again reverses with retracement CD between 127% and 161.8% of the range BC and is shown along the line BD. Price D is the point to buy/sell (bullish/bearish Gartley pattern) as the price is about to increase/decrease.
The spread sheet for gartleys is here
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/this_is_peats_webpage.htm
Craig3215
01-10-2007, 05:40 PM
I'm new at looking for these things but GBP/USD daily looks like it could fit??
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/gbp.gif
Hello Craig
Nice start. The B point suggest a potential BF at this stage.
regds - arco
dumbass
01-10-2007, 06:42 PM
afternoon guys , it was a real pleasure to meet everyone and look forward to do it again
craig , your on to it , my only advice would be the possibility of it turning into a butterfly with a 127 extension .
it has a degree of asymmetry which would make it possible to morph but always worth a look
dumbass
01-10-2007, 06:52 PM
Hello Craig
Nice start. The B point suggest a potential BF at this stage.
regds - arco
hey arco great minds think alike
dumbass
01-10-2007, 07:40 PM
this pattern redrawn with potential butterfly has a more symmetric shape
the b point low is a rough mid point , bringing in some time expectation
arco has a great approach dont get caught up in names and apply a b point of
618 50 382 236 = gartley
618 786 886 = butterfly
Craig3215
02-10-2007, 01:39 AM
Thanks for your feedback guys, not going to act on these with real money yet but I'll continue to keep my eye out for them
RSI was falling, and the action had found resistance at the DT line
- things were looking pretty good for some serious pips.
So, I placed a short trade on the little red BF and went to bed
- leaving the order running with a stop and a target. But.........
..........woke to find the little red had morped into a Blue monster
which eventually gathered circa 150 pips, but in completing its
D leg it had stopped me out just shy of the peak.
arco....feathers ever so slighty ruffled.
a history lesson for me
saw this about 11:45 AM y'day and traded it but chickened out during one of the corrections
really really must just set and forget - s/l at the defined point and would have been +100 on this.
http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/910/eurusd15min003112007il4.th.jpg (http://img218.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurusd15min003112007il4.jpg)
Morning Peat
There was also a nice BF/Gartley combo on Cable.........didnt trade it myself as I was
out most of the day. Measured move and Fib gave a nice target point zone to aim for
with circa 120 pips in the net for eagle eyed butterfly collecters.
Good weekend all - arco
Ozzie Yen
As you can see I set the limit sell at 107.06 last night at 1 am
it has just been triggered while I was out buying a laptop (for the girl) and has mostly been in the black so far tho hasnt reversed from this PRZ yet - stop should be at 107.75 but mine isnt that high
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9348/audjpy30min07112007yn3.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Hi Peat
With B leg at 618 I wonder if there could be a bit
more juice in the D leg.
I was long earlier but got kicked out due to raising the stop too tight.
Big move on Euro in the last few minutes
Dollar Slumps to Record Low Against Euro on Subprime Losses
By Stanley White and Kosuke Goto
Enlarge Image/Details
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar slumped to a record low against the euro on speculation interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve will prompt investors to buy higher-yielding currencies.
The currency also slid against the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone as losses from subprime-mortgage defaults added to pressure on the Fed to lower its target for the overnight lending rate between banks to 4.25 percent next month. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark borrowing cost to 6.75 percent today, while traders added to bets Norway's central bank will increase its 5 percent deposit rate.
``The interest-rate outlook is dragging down the dollar against major currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar,'' said Seiichiro Muta, director of foreign exchange in Tokyo at UBS AG, the world's second-largest currency trader. ``I cannot see the bottom of the dollar depreciation yet.''
The dollar slumped to $1.4666 per euro at 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo, the lowest since the 13-nation currency started in January 1999, from $1.4557 late yesterday. The currency fell against the Australian dollar to 93.34 U.S. cents from 92.87 U.S. cents late in New York. It declined to 5.3403 kroner from 5.3474. It may fall to $1.46 a euro today, Muta said.
Central Banks
Interest-rate futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 62 percent chance of a quarter-percentage point Fed rate cut on Dec. 11, compared with 6 percent a month ago. Citigroup Inc. may write down an additional $2.7 billion worth of subprime-related assets, CreditSights Inc. said yesterday.
Australian central bank Governor Glenn Stevens, announcing today's quarter-point rate increase, said inflation will exceed his target. Norwegian forward-rate agreements, a kind of interest-rate futures contract, gained yesterday on speculation the central bank will lift borrowing costs at least once more by the end of 2008. The Norges Bank next meets Dec. 12.
New Zealand's dollar rose to 78.35 U.S. cents from 78 U.S. cents on speculation a report tomorrow will show the unemployment rate remained at a record low, boosting the chance of another increase to the country's record 8.25 percent benchmark interest rate.
``The dollar is weak against a host of currencies, including the euro, the pound and the Australian dollar,'' said Mitsuru Sahara, senior currency sales manager at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's biggest publicly traded lender. ``We can't tell how much money banks will loose on subprime loans. The Fed is likely to cut rates again before the end of the year.''
The U.S. currency may fall to $1.46 against the euro and 114.30 yen today, Sahara said.
The dollar fell to a record low of $1.0918 against its Canadian counterpart, and traded at $2.0876 per pound, near a 26-year low of $2.0907 reached yesterday.
`Super Expensive'
Gains in the euro may be limited by speculation European economic growth is peaking out, reducing the need for higher interest rates.
The European Central Bank will keep its key rate at 4 percent tomorrow, according to all 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Data yesterday showed manufacturing orders in Germany fell more than expected in September.
``There is a European industrial complex which is now suffering from the euro being at such super expensive levels,'' said Peter Pontikis, treasury strategist at Suncorp-Metway Ltd. in Melbourne. ``The data all suggest you'll get a real slowdown. I'd be against the possibility of a rate hike.''
Europe's single currency will trade at $1.43 versus the dollar by year-end, according to the median forecast of 42 analysts and brokerages surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The yen was little changed at 166.99 per euro and 114.71 against the dollar. It fell 0.4 percent to 89.82 per New Zealand dollar.
Japan's currency has fallen 6.7 percent against New Zealand's currency this year as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate four times. Japan's 0.5 percent interest rate is the lowest among industrialized nations.
To contact the reporter on this story: Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net ; Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at kgoto2@bloomberg.net
seems to have found some resistance at this level ...
tho I would have done alot better with the USD short
stop to break even now currently + 43 but nothings in the bag - that Aud has some strength.
You might be OK..................fingers crossed.
Potential BF-Gartley combo. Hoping the Gart doesnt
want to spread its wings and become a BF.
Anyway, a trip to the uptrend line would be very nice.
I went short on the EY, taken 50% off at a profit, the balance
looks dubious at the moment.
i've added another audjpy short at 106.65 (+39 ) with only a 20 pip stop on this 2nd position
and now closed that one out at +50 leaving the +90 to run.
All went well Peat
The action made it to the first gartley target area and minor TL.
Maybe the green uptrend line as shown may attract -
being the confluence zone of Gartley and BF targets
I eventually took a profit on the balance of EY @ 60 pips
before retiring to dreamland.
rgds - arco
Yeh it did! Trade closed by autopilot at 7am +150 so thats over 200 pips for these trades.
Having set that sell at what I thought was a good level I - quote arco "let the market come to me"
roddy
08-11-2007, 05:29 PM
Peat
That certainly gets the thumbs up Peat,nice trade over short time frame
cheers
roddy
Of historical interest only but wasnt this a thing of beauty
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/395/usdnokdaily13112007smalku3.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Hi Peat
Yes, certainly is, and the same set-up I put on the Chit-Chat thread in Sept......
....given a pretty good run for shorts. .............7000+ PIPS.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=42&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1189149686
USD/SGD
Not an often traded pair but I have had a couple of successful longs from it recently - tho am now short from the yellow D point 1.4534 +17. I'm suggesting theres a possibility that the yellow bearish g. will complete the purple bullish g. so target and possibly reverse just above 1.44 with stop for the current short at Purple A point 1.4570(trailing 50).
http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/593/usdsgd3hour17112007ln7.th.jpg (http://img225.imageshack.us/my.php?image=usdsgd3hour17112007ln7.jpg)
This longing the SGD of course is in agreement with current long Antipodeans.
Lets see how it pans out.
USD/SGD has also came back to test after being +70 ish max.
As its demo I will leave stop at X point 1.4567 which will be -30 ish. IRL tho, might well be bailing at break even.
This is the best Gartly I've been able to find lately. reasonably true in levels tho its time frame is a little attenuated. But so far overnite +24 from this, even tho I was in a bit late.
Note how RSI just tipped into overbought at the .7823 fib and then the next hourly candle confirmed and Awesome Oscillator agreeing (tho lagging). AO has now crossed the centre line so still a sell I think.
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/7360/eurchfhourly27112007nm9.th.jpg (http://img219.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurchfhourly27112007nm9.jpg)
also trying a short on Eur$ with this gartley on the 15min
http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/5766/eurusd15min27112007se1.th.jpg (http://img81.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurusd15min27112007se1.jpg)
Spotted on Elite - Interesting Crab on SP500
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1695189
V short time frame 30 sec candles
Note how I bought too soon and that there was the opportunity , albeit momentary,to buy at the D point
Just a small possibly quick trade to add to the existing hedge that I have now replaced (at the same level I'd earlier unintentionally taken profit)
http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/8964/nzdusd30s30112007pq8.th.jpg (http://img84.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nzdusd30s30112007pq8.jpg)
Dollar postive sentiment isnt helping the kiwi but its struggling valiantly imo and IF there was to be a dollar negative event could well surprise - lets see what the night brings.
I would love to see the Kiwi Sterling graph at the moment.
a better trader than I would have executed the trade at precisely D point and potentially bagged 20 pips already as the bounce did reach the Initial Profit Objective.
now its back testing D ...
the price was supported again at D and has now pierced the A-C trendline
a great trader could have made 20 pips twice.
me, hangin in for 30 or more (twice my risk).
has moved generally in the right direction - but A point showing some resistance
a max of 20 so far has been possible , moving stop to D point now (-9 for me) and limit target set 7749
time to zzzz
apologies for the diary of a trade. but hey thats what forex forums are for isnt it?
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon7.gif
but I forgot about teh 1 oclock event which nearly pulled this out - so temporarily widened stop to below X
and now I see my take profit was taken just before Kiwi plummeted over a cent - a mixed blessing haha
I checked out the demo for that ABN Amro platform running Oanda as its interface. Its great to see other markets through that familiar Oanda look and feel.
They gave me another hundred thou (I still got the one that Oanda gave me!)
And its lookin like I'm gonna sell me some corn sometime soon oh yeh diggity.
note that line 8 is a duplicate of line 6 making this an AB=CD
http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/8247/corn01122007hy7.th.jpg (http://img148.imageshack.us/my.php?image=corn01122007hy7.jpg)
the previous gartley had a pretty massive payoff in quicksmart time!
something to consider at 0.7120
http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/5354/eurgbp3hourke3.th.jpg (http://img106.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurgbp3hourke3.jpg)
have commenced forming the position at 7125
closed the Eur/Gbp for +40
Kiwi now
http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/4245/nzdusd15min19122007zm5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
tho the B leg went a bit high huh so might do a butterfly - lets see.
Hi Peat
Nice going on Eur.Gbp
Kiwi
Yes, I'd also spotted that potential pattern, but with
a 618 B leg, I wondered if it might reach 1128/1618 before
turning. Just watching the 786/886 point now to see how it
reacts.
arco
bit of volatility this evening ! bailed on teh Kiwi now, there were a couple of opportunites to exit in black but thought I would give it one more chance which it has now failed. so out -10
Dont see a convincing reversal happening
me and my scaredeycatness hah, it went and gave a max of 40 pips not long after.
Never look back peat. ;+)
Eur$ did a gartley now so have shorted it
Eur$ short closed +30
Nice call Peat but I was readingsomething that suggetsed that it would go for another 250 points....
Eur$ short closed +30
Daily FX
www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/EURUSD_Correction_Is_Not_Over (http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/EURUSD_Correction_Is_Not_Over)
hope this works:)
Do you cut and run with pennies or stick with it for the long haul??
Pay for Christmas dinner or risk having to pay?
Hi Bilo
Firstly, great to see you post!
Re that report, hmmm seasonality as a trade strategy doesnt sit tooo well with me but I guess like they say something to be mindful of. And in contrast to that 250 further comment Max McK is saying Eur has corrected enough about now. So yeh different opionions all making a market
And looking back over last night now, yes it would appear I could of made more but as of now only a few more and a break even stop would have been hit! But hah didnt I say earlier to never look back.
Cut and run or hold is the eternal question - do I risk what I've got to try and make more ?
There are two conflicting sayings that spring to mind. 1/ Cut your losses and let your profits run, or 2/ No one ever went broke taking a profit. Of those I think the first is better advice. Some trades are going to lose , so the ones that win need to do significantly better to sustain a decent profitability, but yes its a failing in my trading I do tend to take profits too soon.
See this article "Partial Profits = Fiscal Folly"
http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/Archive/022005/Abstracts_new/Passamonte/Passamonte.html
Trading Gartleys tho, or any formation for that matter, the initial profit objective is relevant to the size of the formation eg in this case it was quite a small gartley so its not realistic to think that its impact will be all that great. Other larger formations will increasingly come into play.
Oh, and to be honest (not the best reason really) I wanted to close that position so I could relax for the rest of the evening. I also knew I had a USD/CHF long (totally similar trade) which I held for another 15 minutes to 'keep me in for a few more'.
Hi Bilo
And looking back over last night now, yes it would appear I could of made more but as of now only a few more and a break even stop would have been hit! But hah didnt I say earlier to never look back.
Cut and run or hold is the eternal question - do I risk what I've got to try and make more ?
There are two conflicting sayings that spring to mind. 1/ Cut your losses and let your profits run, or 2/ No one ever went broke taking a profit. Of those I think the first is better advice. Some trades are going to lose , so the ones that win need to do significantly better to sustain a decent profitability, but yes its a failing in my trading I do tend to take profits too soon.
See this article "Partial Profits = Fiscal Folly"
http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/Archive/022005/Abstracts_new/Passamonte/Passamonte.html
Trading Gartleys tho, or any formation for that matter, the initial profit objective is relevant to the size of the formation eg in this case it was quite a small gartley so its not realistic to think that its impact will be all that great. Other larger formations will increasingly come into play.
Oh, and to be honest (not the best reason really) I wanted to close that position so I could relax for the rest of the evening. I also knew I had a USD/CHF long (totally similar trade) which I held for another 15 minutes to 'keep me in for a few more'.
Thanks PEAT for the long and thoughtful reply. With all the Christmas goings on it has taken me a while to respond.
Firstly, a Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New year to you.
The size of the formation - yes I must not forget that.
I have trouble getting out when profit is near a maximum, often i seem to lose half of it somewhere between the top and the exit, but I am getting better.
The worst situation for me seems to be when everything I see and read indicates that my position should be right but the market is going the other way - that is when I find it tough to cut and run. So the area of cutting losses is something I will work on....
A nice formation could be developing with AUD/USD. 0.87 now. Will it go for 100 more points? Will I stick with it, or pack it in and go to bed??
Eur/Chf
X=beginning of Dec 13th
A= Dec 18th
B=Dec 19th (perfect at 50%)
D hasnt quite happened yet but very close
and AB=CD
Merry Xmas everyone !!!
that Eur/Chf turned at precisely D and is now +30
partially closed Eur/Chf +50
Steve
31-12-2007, 03:08 PM
What is the outlook for the EURUSD?
Theres a fairly ideal bearish gartley on the USD/HKD daily at the moment with AB=CD and divergence on the RSI and momentum indicators. I wasnt happy with the pic I did so wont post it but it sticks out like dogs balls.
Kinda gutted that I spotted the AUD/JPY larger gartley that finished with the NFP last week and then reversed for 300 pips this week , but never traded it.
pic for USD/HKD
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/8165/usdhkddaily12012008rn6.th.jpg (http://img98.imageshack.us/my.php?image=usdhkddaily12012008rn6.jpg)
and a head and shoulders formation on this USD/HKD could add grist to the gartley mill
USD/HKD is being stubborn at these levels however it was a trade over a daily time frame I will sell again at 7.8114 stop loss is above 7.83
Aud/Jpy was compliant on a shorter time frame last night.
I slept through this entire trade of +100
USD/HKD limit was hit the other day at 7.8114, a reasonable sized position (for me) is now in place and as of now +43 with in my mind all indications showing a turn at the 78% retracment level. target 7.77 stop 7.84 this may be brought down over time eg trailing.
took some profit on USD/HKD at 7.7950 +164
it took a few days to get going but did fall well recently
Steve
01-02-2008, 06:03 PM
Well done on your trade, Peat!
I have started looking into Gartley Butterflys. Do you have any recommended sources of info for background reading? This thread has many good examples, but I am looking for something that starts with the basics...
steve, in answer to both of your questions in this and the NZD thread I will for now just post this picture.
Steve
02-02-2008, 10:19 AM
Thanks Peat.
I will open my eyes and put the brain in to gear...
took some profit on USD/HKD at 7.7950 +164
still short on this now at 7.7844
USD/HKD
target 7.77
thats reached after something like 6 weeks
fully closed at 7.7672 now
sorry to post after the event but USD/JPY gave a good gartley for a hundred pip short last night . top blue dotted line to bottom blue dotted line
Steve
24-03-2008, 09:31 AM
What sort of success rate are you finding with the butterfly formations? IE:How often do they partially form, but not complete?
cant really say Steve.... note I use gartleys, Arco is the butterfly collector.
But for me its a strategy that gives clear entry points and exit points.
1/ Eur/Chf X Mar 12th ; A Mar 17th etc.. daily
2/ Chf/Jpy X Mar 19 A Mar 21 etc 3 hour...
lets see how those go.
wow edit function reduced to 1 minute after the post!!
entry for Eur/Chf is 1.5750
entry for Chf/Jpy is 99.60 which hasnt happend yet but i have one at 99.45 as a precursor.
just realised those two trades in combination are really just a short Eur/Jpy. And looking at that pair there isnt a gartley as such but there is a 78% retracement at 156.4 now at 156.24
Just do that trade and save on two spreads <slaps head> :o
Hi Peat
Potential larger Gartley B50-D886 showing on 1 hour EYen.
rgds - arco
http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/4617/eurjpy30min26032008gg5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
entry for Chf/Jpy is 99.60 which hasnt happend yet
entry point triggered now.
dumbass
09-04-2008, 01:25 PM
i was just thinking ..................
to me the 618 retracement is a more significant reversal point , yet its not quite the dominant fib level in harmonic patterns
im kind of surprised that there are no patterns that have prz at 618 , it seems to me theres very often a reaction around this level
could be a opportunity to be immortalised with a catchy name
maybe bat , butterfly , crab and the COCK
Could be interesting DB..... :D
...........I think the COCK is giving the UP signal
dumbass
09-04-2008, 04:02 PM
in a very concise response it pays to be a jack of all trades
a little bit of candlestick , patterns , harmonics especially and a little elliot wave
sometimes the stars align and everything confirms , this trade is worth waiting for
shares are very tradeable using tehnical indicators and its got me thinking one thing i miss from share trading is volume , i allways felt it was a good indicator but no direct volume parameters in forex
arcos trades are well worth studying as hes been doing it a while and hes bloody good
Craig3215
10-04-2008, 04:00 PM
looks like a possible short
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/aud4-9.jpg
long term looks like cup and handle
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/aud4-9c.jpg
it would be good if the USD got a bit more popular about now....
Steve
10-04-2008, 11:18 PM
it would be good if the USD got a bit more popular about now....
It can only be a matter of time...but how much time is the question...
roddy
18-04-2008, 09:59 PM
hi all
at the minute 9.57 there is a bearish butterfly on the gpb hourly starting from the 14 till now at 127 currently.waiting to see if it is going to morph to 161.or a reversal
not much point in posting chart as dailyfx charts are cr***p lines go all over the place.
cheers
roddy
The ASX200 just completed a nice 100 point butterfly over the last couple of days. Sorry but I don't know how to post this pic.
Hi Bilo
Posting a chart.
I have mentioned this before on one of the FX threads...but cant find it at the moment. I did find a similar explanion that Phaedrus placed on the forum - link below. He mentions Screen Hunter which I have used in the past although I use Printkey 2000 currently - they both do a similar job.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=1201&highlight=screen+hunter&page=2
The first thing you need to post charts is a Screen Capture
programme. This will work regardless of the source of your charts - website, MetaStock or any other charting software. An excellent screen capture utility can be downloaded from
http://www.wisdom-soft.com/downloads/downloadfiles.htm
It is called "ScreenHunter" (323KB) and will run on Win 95/98/NT4/ME/2000 and XP. This programme is free. There are no catches, no ads, and no time limits. It can capture the active window, the full screen, or any user defined rectangle. This last option is the one you want because it enables you to select only the actual graph, leaving out any toolbars etc. The file can be saved as BMP, JPG or GIF. Select the GIF option - this gives small files that are easily read by any system. A typical chart would give a BMP file of 1200KB, JPG would take 70KB, but GIF format would take less than 15KB. This makes for faster downloads. Save the file to your desktop. Do not make the charts too big. Restrict them to about 3/4 of the screen width. If you post a larger image, it makes the entire thread too wide to view directly and is very annoying for everyone.
After screen capture, save as a file and then download using the 'manage attachments' button lower down on the reply page
Something like this Arco?
Well it could have included the Aussie200 Index CFD heading, but I might get the idea - thanks for the screen capture software tip.:)
Bilo
Looks OK Bilo.
Is that a baby BF at the end?
Looks OK Bilo.
Is that a baby BF at the end?
Might be you spotted it before it is finished...
everyones pretty bullish on AUD/NZD at the moment
Max sent out a flyer about NZD/AUD goin to .73 on 28/4 (see the 2nd pic with the writing above it) [sorry Max, but if you send them to me free I wont consider them copyright]
and McDunk in the shares forums is gloating about putting all his money over there earlier this year
I should be buying them too for my trip over there next month but I'm not.
This looks like a bearish gartley to me although if you'd sold at D it would be -150 already
It will probably end up being a butterfly and go to 1.24 , anyway just thought I'd post what I see.
Hi Peat
My genetically modified green butterfly collection seems to
agree with higher prices to come......mentioned this on the
Aud.Nzd thread (I think).
rgds - arco
roddy
31-07-2008, 08:26 PM
just happen to spot this NZD/JPY ON 15 min chart 161 would be good
This is an interesting take on the gartley/butterfly
Mikula Forecasting Company: Strategy #17:Gartley Pattern 0.382 Failure
When the price falls back below the point C the pattern has failed and it is an indication that the stock price may collapse.
http://www.mikulaforecasting.com/public/s17_adi.gif
Hi Peat
Interesting slant on Harmonic patterns.
IMO a pattern cant be a considered anywhere near a Gartley until it is properly formed.
This pattern is something else, however it did form a bullish BF towards the final few bars.
arco
Arco
If the D point of a butterfly goes below 1.618 of XA does this invalidate it from your perspective?
Arco
If the D point of a butterfly goes below 1.618 of XA does this invalidate it from your perspective?
Hi Peat
Not necessarily, although ideally a BF should complete around 161.8
If there is an overshoot I keep in mind the existing formation I have considered, but also look to see if there are any alternative X points or other harmonic set-ups that may be in play in various time-frames.
e.g. Swissy could currently have an X at Oct 30 (as well as 4 Dec) and be forming a longer time frame Gartley.
So I keep both potential patterns in mind but await a reversal confirmation signal before considering any entry.
rgds - arco
CMC Markets offering a free webinar on the butterfly !!
I will be winging myself to Oz so wont be online. If you didnt get the email maybe check their website.
CMC Markets offering a free webinar on the butterfly !!
If you didnt get the email maybe check their website.
What!!!!!!
I cant believe it - they've not even asked me to give a speech :rolleyes:
Its the end for the Butterfly as we know it.
I'm sure we could organise a time for you to give a presentation on the butterfly arco and would bet we'd get a few takers too
theoretically butterfly's are just another shape but i rarely seem to find them and the lack of a clear stop point makes them somehow less tradeable to me.
I'm actually a bit miffed that I cant make this presentation. anyone going to listen in ?
I'm sure we could organise a time for you to give a presentation on the butterfly arco and would bet we'd get a few takers too
theoretically butterfly's are just another shape but i rarely seem to find them and the lack of a clear stop point makes them somehow less tradeable to me.
I'm actually a bit miffed that I cant make this presentation. anyone going to listen in ?
Peat I will try, but I cant find any link here
http://www.cmcmarkets.co.nz/en/content/education/index.jsp
....................where to book the webinar?
Try here arco
https://www.cmcmarkets.com.au/en/content/learn/webinars.do
and I will flick you the email too as it has a event number and password.
I'm a bit worried that it will be a lot of marketing hype for you to wade through so no worries if its too much effort.
Peat
I've never heard of the presenter, so he's not a famous 'Butterfly' expert.
Googled Ric Spooner, there are links, but all back to CMC
eg
http://www.cmcmembers.com.au/traders_review/pdfs/200806/page13.pdf
http://www.cmcmembers.com.au/traders_review/pdfs/200806/page15.pdf
I'll do my best to watch, and take snags if possible. However, I dont expect to hear anything that is not known already.
ok thx
be back on Tuesday.... all possies closed , was quite surprised that USD/CHF came back and took the remiaining third out. Only got +40
Peat
I've never heard of the presenter, so he's not a famous 'Butterfly' expert.
Googled Ric Spooner, there are links, but all back to CMC
eg
http://www.cmcmembers.com.au/traders_review/pdfs/200806/page13.pdf
http://www.cmcmembers.com.au/traders_review/pdfs/200806/page15.pdf
I'll do my best to watch, and take snags if possible. However, I dont expect to hear anything that is not known already.
Peat
I listened through the whole session......in fact I was the only attendee
Nothing new. I could have given a better presentation myself.
Entry suggested after break back through X or B or on a pre-chosen horizontal trend-line that has multiple s/r points.
You can re-view the webinar by contacting
education@cmcmarkets.com.au
rgds - arco
me back from Oz, managed to avoid floods and fires.
thanks for that review arco - shame it wasnt more useful to you
I will email them and try to view it post event.
and to celebrate my return my first trade got me 83 pips while having tea and toast. a gartleyish type pattern on the Eur/Usd
http://www.traderslog.com/gartley-222.htm
Entry suggested after break back through X or B or on a pre-chosen horizontal trend-line that has multiple s/r points.
would your presentation have said X or B or what? ....
I was always thinking entry at D even for a butterfly... but I dont catch as many as you
would your presentation have said X or B or what? ....
I was always thinking entry at D even for a butterfly... but I don't catch as many as you
Sorry Peat - I missed that question. (probably checking out the silver bars :D)
A break through B would have given 200+ pips.
But I prefer a 1/2 EW entry for safety.
roddy
20-03-2009, 10:15 PM
Hi Arco/Peat,
here is a web site that relies upon swing and butterfly analysis on the majors for all there TA
www.fx360.com/
cheers
roddy
BTW i am not a member or affiliated with these people in any way other than they send me a freebie once a week
Finally I managed to catch the CMC Butterfly webinar this afternoon.
I found it quite useful and expect some nets to be laid soon
roddy
21-04-2009, 10:40 PM
Hi Peat,
heres EUR which might shape up for the net after a while ,interesting they start with an
A as opposed to X
anyone noticed the butterfly on the dow?
however , according to the strategy oulined by Ric Spooner at CMC this still isnt a buy as it needs to break the resistance at around 8000 - 8100. due to the deep final leg of this butterfly
Seems to me that as it went to almost 1.618 (the lowest dotted line) a lot of the up move has occurred already but one must wait for that resistance level (at 8100 ish) to become a support level, and to my untrained eye that doesnt seem to have happened yet.
so not time to jump in yet.
FTSE is the same of course.
This weekend I did a long term scan for butterflies all along the FBL stock. There were some pretty awesome entries and of course a few failures. One definitely needed to take a fairly long term perspective i.e hold your winners to maximise returns otherwise the few failures took too much back as a proportion. But I'm encouraged ... and of course the real point of this is to make a current analysis so here it is
In contrast to the Dow FBU:NZX has in fact confirmed and come back to test , and so far shown support.
The butterfly completed in early March, the buy signal was generated in mid March on that huge green candle day with the B and the green arrow.
Entry (could,should) would have been around $6.00 and stop should properly be at $5 tho now theres been a test without failure maybe that could be raised depending on your risk tolerance I guess.
I've been thinking about the same thing with regards to FBU...it looks good from a classical charting perspective as well. A breakout out of the trading range complete with a pullback to support. Longer term though this one.
A very large butterfly on the Aud/Jpy. Quite perfectly it goes to 127% at the top but imperfectly went too low in the middle. I'm going to forgive it on this occasion. See the tiny little butterfly right at the top giving the first indication.
However technically it must break through the Blue dotted line at around 66 to confirm. That exact point is a little subjective of course - I'm trying to be conservative and it may well find some support at this area. Always hard to know when to pull the trigger. I did it already at 69
Target should be around 57 nearly 1000 pips away but again , technically the stop should be 73.5 around 600 pips from here! :eek: Position sizing a must.
http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/191/audjpydaily28042009.th.jpg (http://img237.imageshack.us/my.php?image=audjpydaily28042009.jpg)
dumbass
01-05-2009, 08:48 PM
multiple confirmation on sp 500 for a short.
Butterfly on a Crab.
elliot wave expanding triangle.
nice set up , but just a short term trade while waiting for long entry.
yes I got a short in last night on the SP DA based on this chart showing two bearish BF's, and got a fair chunk of that fall , but now I see a bullish BF in force which is really only taking us back to test on the purple one bearish one.
getting caned on my Aud Jpys tho , and why? because I didnt wait for confirmation.
dumbass
02-05-2009, 12:27 PM
hey peat,
hanging in on spx short but with extreme caution, still feel like main trend is up and thats the one i really want to jump on.
scalping for small change on the SP500 2 minute chart.
that FBU butterfly back in late April flew a fair way....
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showpost.php?p=252486&postcount=242
starting to get a bit carried away in the last couple of days though! I guess , notwithstanding the declared loss the actual earnings fundamentals seem ok.
starting to see some wings spreading in the opposite direction now with RSI divergence occurring as well. but certainly no sign of confirmation. A sell would only be triggered with a daily close below 6.80 and a close above 8.00 will invalidate this bearish butterfly.
quite a perfect gartley on the S+P short time frame
SP500 competing butterflies. the blue one never activated and the black one has won out just now.
SP500 competing butterflies. the blue one never activated and the black one has won out just now.
Hi Peat
What would you have needed for the blue to activate?
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